One wonders how it must feel to be in a country where the Taliban have taken over.

One now appreciates how it feels, exactly.,

However, the problems of Chernobyl, Fukushima and future accidents (the rate of which must increase if the number of reactors increases) are or may be in the context of stable societies that can apply some resources to dealing with the problem in some way. As societies collapse in on themselves, split, descend into chaos, or whatever, how will the operation of nuclear facilities embedded within those societies be affected? No-one knows. Maybe in some societies, an ordered shutdown and decommissioning will take place but it certainly won’t be uniform across the world, across nations and across regions within nations. To me, that is the big reason why there should be no further nuclear build, at a minimum; ideally, existing nuclear reactors will be powered down whilst societies are still relatively stable and the knowledge is available.

So please don’t advocate nuclear as a future bridge energy source, or even a long term energy source. It makes no sense to me, given the risks and the clear signs of limits kicking in.

https://www.box.com/s/zt0g8yvwx3yzxk924jqq

Thus, consider that this implies a 90% decline in population over ~38-50% of the time it took for the super-exponential growth (characteristic of an “anti-bubble” trajectory), suggesting a period of collapse lasting 100-125 years; however, given the characteristics of a regime switch in a dynamic system in overshoot, ~70-80%% of the decline could occur within 20-50% of the period of decline, implying a crash phase lasting 25-60 years.

https://www.box.com/s/by4w7cponk8q8fkfsjxl

The peak in the rate of change of population in the 1970s suggests that the rate of change of deceleration will hereafter acceleration from the 1.2% rate (negative to 0% to less than 1% in most of the developed world, including Japan and the wealthy Asian city-states) to 0% to negative by the early to mid-’20s; therefore, the most likely period for population collapse is in the ’20s-’30s to mid-century (25-40 years from 1973 and 25-40 years thereafter for a rapidly deceleration fertility rate).

But the structural conditions influencing the declining population growth rate, contraction, and collapse are already emerging coincident with the population doubling time of 40 years since 1950.

IOW, growth of everything is coming to an end, including the growth of the human ape species. How we as a species and civilization adapt to the end of growth and define our values, purpose, obligations, and what is possible and practical will make all the difference; but the Anglo-American, German, Dutch, Swiss, and Milanese Power Elite top 0.01-0.1% are way ahead of the masses in defining the world they want for themselves and what they are prepared to do to secure it, irrespective of what we want and need.

Thanks for the clear and succinct lesson. There are hundreds of questions that arise, but one of the most important, I think, would be our situation compared to that of others — the EU, Japan, China, etc. I’ve seen statistics that China and Japan are at a 2 to 1 debt to income ratio, and growing. Is there any country not affected?

Thanks.

Now that the US gov’t now has gross debt to GDP of 100% and total bank assets are 100% equivalent to GDP and 100% of equity market capitalization, cumulative compounding interest from total bank assets and total credit market debt owed are now an equivalent to 100% of wages, profits, and gov’t receipts in perpetuity. Increasing debt-money will no longer result in increasing real GDP per capita.

https://www.box.com/s/urkg7lqju0xz348shf2p

https://www.box.com/s/gb8m6ur7zwfzflrwurw0

https://www.box.com/s/5dqe1l2j8r2gg9g99mot

Add to public and private debt/GDP the marginal constraints from the cost of fossil fuel consumption to GDP, and the situation is worse.

Then add the peak Boomer demographic drag effects on consumer spending and the US gov’t's budget and there is a negative force multiplier on real GDP per capita that simply cannot be overcome.

Debt, energy costs, and demographics will drag on US real GDP per capita for many years to come, if not permanently (stating the obvious).

If our narrative is ‘K Selected…Too Bad…End of Story’, we may miss a lot of opportunities. If we look at Edo Japan and see the situation they overcame and study the specific methods they used, we may come out in a very different place.

Don Stewart

‘All the more remarkable then that 200 years later the same land was supporting thirty million people–two and a half times the population–with little sign of environmental degradation. Deforestation had been halted and reversed, farmland improved and made more productive, and conservation implemented in all sectors of society, both urban and rural. Overall living standards had increased, and the people were better fed, housed, and clothed and they were healthier. By any objective standard, it was a remarkable feat, arguably unequalled anywhere else, before or since.’

My argument is simply that before we say ‘Well…what do you expect from a K Selected species?’, we take a careful look at the specific measures the Japanese took to achieve what they did. There is no guarantee that any methods can sustain 7 or 10 billion humans, but we ought to be looking carefully at what is sustainable and, I argue, Edo Japan is a good place to start.

Don Stewart

I do watch the skies more ever since I saw the alien craft in 1976 as a teenager. That has given me some hope here. They are out there. There have been so many sightings and mine was not really that spectacular compared to some of the abduction stories accounts I have read about.
I do not know who they are but there is something out there, no sign of them saving us yet though.

I also planted some flowers for my wife aside from the food garden. Sure, we are not going to sit idle I am studying the situation and acting accordingly to be sure we can get through a period of time just in case we need to, we may be extending our misery, but my natural response is to do what I can. At least we will be a bit more resilient. Which Gail said sounded like a natural response when a coming crises is perceived.

I was looking at that article about Spain today and I read that younger people unemployment is closer to 50 percent. I wonder what all the kids are doing with their time? It would be good if they could be productive but just hanging around with no money is surely not fun for any kid. When I was younger I worked so hard and bought my car because I lived 10 miles from town. But the opportunities existed, my first job was when I was 12 rebuilding antiques and I have enjoyed wood working ever since. These skills have helped me carry through life, and if you are able to build or fix something you are that much farther ahead. I am not sure how many of our youths have these skills to build or fix, but they better start learning fast!