The Energy Problem behind Trump’s Election

The energy problem behind Trump’s election is not the one people have been looking for. Instead, it is an energy problem that leads to low wages for many workers in the US, and high unemployment rates in the European Union. (The different outcomes reflect different minimum wage laws. Higher minimum wages tend to lead to higher unemployment rates; lower minimum wages tend to lead to higher employment, but unsatisfactory wage levels for many.) The energy problem is also reflected as low prices of oil and other commodities.

To try to solve the energy problem, we use approaches that involve increasing complexity, including new technology and globalization. As we add more and more complexity, these approaches tend to work less and less well. In fact, they can become a problem in themselves, because they tend to redistribute wealth toward the top of the employment hierarchy, and they increase “overhead” for the economy as a whole.

In this material, I explain how inadequate energy supplies can appear as either low wages or as high prices. Basically, if energy supplies are inadequate, workers tend to be less productive because they have fewer or less advanced tools to work with. Their lower wages reflect lower productivity (Slide 20).  Slide 6 offers some additional insights.

Trump’s election seems to reflect the cooling effect that our energy problems are having on the economy as a whole. Citizens are increasingly unhappy with their wage situation, and want a major change. Trump’s election may at least temporarily have a beneficial effect, since it may work in the direction of reducing complexity.

Long term, however, it is hard to see that the policies of any elected official will be able to fix our underlying energy problems.

I wrote up my post as a presentation. It can be downloaded at this link: The Energy Problem Behind Trump’s Election. I thought this might be a way of putting together quite a bit of material into one place. I have displayed the images of the PDF below the fold, for those who would like to read them as a post.

I hope the large number of images does not cause viewing problems. Let me know if you have suggestions for making this material more accessible.

Slide 1

Slide 2

Section 1: Trump’s Election Reflects the Winds of Contraction

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Slide 6

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Slide 9

Section 2: The Surprising Role of Energy

Slide 11

Slide 12

Slide 13

Section 3: Humans’ Unusual Use of Energy

Slide 15

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Slide 18

Slide 19

Slide 20

Section 4: The Role of Complexity

Slide 22

Slide 23

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Section 5: Where we are now with respect to energy and the economy

Slide 37

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Section 6: Trump’s Solution and Final Thoughts

Slide 42

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Slide 45

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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1,893 Responses to The Energy Problem behind Trump’s Election

  1. Artleads says:

    “Our species needs to accumulate the energy cheaply and use it in order to survive. ”

    We’ve had plenty of cheap energy up till now, but we didn’t use it to survive, We used it to kill ourselves and everything else we could find to kill.

    • MG says:

      Oh, no… If it is cheap enough, it could not be used for killing. It is the cheap energy that opens new horizons. The costly energy (like shooting with the gun) is more efficiently used for population control than for population increase.

    • Artleads says:

      “If it is cheap enough, it could not be used for killing. It is the cheap energy that opens new horizons.”

      What does this mean? The only kind of energy I can see that won’t kill TOO MANY things would be very little energy–just enough to scrape by on. And I can’t see how it would be cheap.

  2. MG says:

    Are the pollution, the food production, the climate change, the diseases the real problems of the humankind? No. The real problem of the humankind always was, is and will be the energy: if we only had more cheap energy, we could solve all of the abovementioned problems.

    Our biggest challenge, is that we, as species, lose control over the world around us, when we lose the abundant cheap energy.

    Those who think that we need green energy or the protection of the nature are mistaken: none of them can revive the depleting battery of the accumulated energy on the Earth. Our species needs to accumulate the energy cheaply and use it in order to survive. Only after that we can move to other planets and colonize them, as it was the cheap abundant energy that allowed us to colonize the most inhospitable areas of the world.

    Only until recently, our only way of accumulating the energy was via mining it or accumulate it in water reservoirs (http://www.banskastiavnica.sk/visitor/unesco-1/technical-monuments.html). Now, we have only some very inefficient batteries that cost too much and provide too little energy for our needs.

    We do not need the new energy sources like the solar and the wind. They still can not beat even the lowest type of the accumulated energy in the form of the dry grass that can be burned:

    http://previews.123rf.com/images/a454/a4541506/a454150600019/40919287-Hay-dry-grass-put-a-heap-on-the-ground-Dry-dead-grass-Stock-Photo.jpg

    • without ”stuff’ on which to use it, energy per se is useless

      therefore, we build cars, lightbulbs, houses—what have you, in order to ”use” energy.

      our problem is population, which is now too numerous.
      each person requires a slice of energy-usage pie, not energy itself.

      that pie is all the goods and stuff we make and sell to each other using raw materials.
      80m people arrive each day, all demanding their share.—that is what we are running out of

      • MG says:

        No, our problem is not population. If we have abundant cheap energy, we can create chemical elements like alchemists.

        If we reduce the population immediately, we are still lacking the cheap energy.

        • MG says:

          We even worship the accumulated external energy in the form of God.

          • MG says:

            Jesus Christ was God because he could heal without medicaments, turned water into wine, multiplied the bread and fish and rose again from the dead – was allegedly simply the emobodiment of the accumulated cheap energy.

            • jarvis9077
              Jarvis says:

              MG I envy your delusional state. Enjoy the rapture ride!

            • so when my significant other yells—”oh my god now what have you done”——can i just say that i’m finding a use for my excess energy?

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Or when she nags you for not doing something..’oh my god you are still lying there on the sofa and the grass has not been cut!’ . you can explain that you are just conserving energy….

            • screaming is ok so long as ”god” is mentioned somewhere

            • Fast Eddy says:

              It would pay to remind her that god is all powerful….

            • i do—-alla time

              she has a short memory

            • MG says:

              The problem is the falling exchange of the raw materials and products caused by the too costly energy. We still can produce, but the exchange becomes harder. It is like all nodes of the network are shrinking simultaneously. That is why local production seems to be more rational.

            • doomphd – Honolulu – I really hold a doctor of philosophy (phd) in geological sciences and study pretty doomy topics like giant landslides, volcanic eruptions and megatsunamis.
              doomphd says:

              burning bush = God

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              Flows of energy = god

        • seems we have another inmate who don’t believe in sanity claus no more

    • Fast Eddy says:

      ‘if we only had more cheap energy, we could solve all of the abovementioned problems’

      This is what cheap energy got us…. as you can imagine… I vehemently disagree with the above statement….

      http://www.everythingconnects.org/uploads/7/0/3/5/7035190/7349362_orig.png

      • MG says:

        If we had more cheap energy, we could export the population to other planets, supply them with energy and sustain the life of the human species there.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        I agree. Entropy continues to happen, even with more cheap energy.

        • Greg Machala says:

          More cheap energy = delays collapse and makes it more severe.

          • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
            Gail Tverberg says:

            More severe? Isn’t it pretty much the same, regardless of when it happens. The only difference is that the total population starts out a little higher.

            • Pintada says:

              Nope, Gail. If it had happened in the 80’s, a really large number of mammalian species would have survived. Now, there will likely be no mammals. If BAU continues into the 2020’s or 2030’s there will likely be nothing more sophisticated than a lichen left on land. The quicker the collapse comes and the steeper the crash the better.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              That may be true. Dissipative systems work to dissipate all energy. If one round of collapse takes more with it, it leaves less to be dissipated later.

  3. dolph says:

    When I speak about race I am merely mentioning the unmentionable, and tying it in with collapse.
    Here in the United States, for example, we are already seeing more white Americans coalescing around their favored tropes (corporatism, white American men rule the world, etc.) as a result to decline, influx of competitive immigrants, and the fact that they just can’t put blacks down anymore. White Americans reliably side with the devil they know, their corporate masters, rather than outsiders. They really do think a billionaire real estate man is going to deport immigrants and bring back jobs which will make them all rich like him!

    There are simply no words for such widespread delusion.

    Moreover, anyone with two eyes can see how financially and culturally successful the hebrews have become, and history does show that no society survives such concentration of hebraic power.

    What’s my point? My point is that race is a part of collapse. Even forgetting energy for a moment, all of the elements for internal race and class struggle are already present in the United States. Peak oil is just the fuse.

    • thestingingnettlereport
      Stinging Nettle says:

      “…and history does show that no society survives such concentration of hebraic power”

      Can you give one example of society collapsing in the past because of concentration of hebraic power?

      • Artleads says:

        I’m interested in learning about this hebraic power too. Having spent a fair deal of time in the greater NY area, I’ve come across a large number of Jews. Maybe it’s just that I don’t move in Dolf’s vaunted circles, but among the many Jews that I’ve encountered, none appeared to be noticeably rich or powerful.

      • Artleads says:

        “…and the fact that they just can’t put blacks down anymore”

        “They” should take a look at the following statistics. It appears they are succeeding very well in “putting” blacks down.” Or is there some thing I’m missing?.

        “African Americans now constitute nearly 1 million of the total 2.3 million incarcerated population”

        “African Americans are incarcerated at nearly six times the rate of whites”

        http://www.naacp.org/criminal-justice-fact-sheet/

    • Artleads says:

      I’m interested in learning about this hebraic power too. Having spent a fair deal of time in the greater NY area, I’ve come across a large number of Jews. Maybe it’s just that I don’t move in your vaunted circles, but among the many Jews that I’ve encountered, none appeared to be noticeably rich or powerful. I’m not sure we’re talking about the same universe.

  4. Tim Groves – Japan
    Tim Groves says:

    Disruption ahead due to shortages of high-tech widgets with acronyms for names that go into PCs and phones!

    We began reporting on the first signs of the looming NAND shortage all the way back in May, and have touched on the domino effect in many articles over the ensuing months as it unfolded. Now the shortage is in full swing: DRAMeXchange reported that the average price of MLC SSDs rose this quarter between 6%-10%, while TLC SSDs also rose 6%-9%. We also reached out to Trendfocus, whose projections indicate even higher price hikes at both the retail and OEM level.
    To make matters worse, although HDDs unexpectedly had the biggest quarter-over-quarter recovery in seven years, according to Trendfocus, now the HDD industry is beginning to exhibit the early signs of “tightened” supply–which means there could be shortages and higher prices in that segment as well.

    An increase in smartphone capacity, SSDs in laptops, and a terrible transition to 3D NAND led to SSDs prices that are unquestionably on the rise, and if HDDs also rise at the same time, it could lead to the perfect storm of higher storage prices. It appears the end of low-priced storage is nigh, and we don’t expect things to improve until late next year.

    http://www.tomshardware.com/news/ssd-hdd-shortage-nand-market,33112.html

    • Christian says:

      Higher prices… Those fearing deflation will be glad

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Not a good situation!

  5. Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
    Ed says:

    All Watched Over By Machines Of Loving Grace
    I like to think (and
    the sooner the better!)
    of a cybernetic meadow
    where mammals and computers
    live together in mutually
    programming harmony
    like pure water
    touching clear sky.

    I like to think
    (right now, please!)
    of a cybernetic forest
    filled with pines and electronics
    where deer stroll peacefully
    past computers
    as if they were flowers
    with spinning blossoms.

    I like to think
    (it has to be!)
    of a cybernetic ecology
    where we are free of our labors
    and joined back to nature,
    returned to our mammal
    brothers and sisters,
    and all watched over
    by machines of loving grace.

    • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
      Ed says:

      Richard Brautigan
      1968

    • hkeithhenson
      hkeithhenson says:

      “machines of loving grace.”

      Charles Stross in _Halting State_, has a handle on this:

      The sky turns deep blue, the world freezes, and a progress bar marches slowly across it from horizon to horizon. Ethereal runes written in aurorae six hundred kilometers high scrawl across the heavens, UPDATING REALITY, and for a moment your skin crawls with superstitious dread. Someday we’re all going to get brain brain implants and experience this directly. Someday everyone is going to live their lives out in places like this, vacant bodies tended by machines of loving grace while their minds go on before us into strange spaces where the meat cannot follow.

      • Yorchichan says:

        I don’t believe anybody has yet taken the Fast Eddy challenge, so here is the much less demanding Yorchichan challenge:

        Go lie down in a pitch black room with no sounds. Imagine yourself as nothing but the disembodied voice in your head with only memories of how life used be when you had a body, senses, friends and family. Imagine this going on for all eternity. Sounds like hell to me.

        Would you really want to give anyone this power over your reality? I am a body, of which my mind is but one part. When my body dies, so do I. No way anyone is uploading my consciousness to a computer, even if one day it would be possible (which it never will be).

        • hkeithhenson
          hkeithhenson says:

          “No way anyone is uploading my consciousness”

          How can you demonstrate this has not already happened?

          The origin of the current philosophy department cottage industry of “the world as a simulation” dates back to a conversation I had with Hans Moravec at the Artificial Life Conference at Los Alamos in 1986. Hans had a manuscript copy of Mind Children in his hand and was rapping on about the ever falling cost of computation. I stopped him and said, “Hans, do you realize how unlikely it is that this is the first time we had this conversation?” Hans gave me this weird blank look, so I explained that if he was right, people in the future would simulate the past and like the SCA or the civil war reenactors they would run it many times, so the chances of this being the first were nearly zero.

          Hans went away kind of sandbagged and eventually wrote “Pigs in Cyberspace” which I think is still up on the web. That probably was picked up by Nick Bostrom and eventually influence Elon Musk.

          I can’t claim it was an original idea since I had read Simulacron-3 by Daniel F. Galouye back in the 1960s. “The Matrix (1999) described a world whose population is unaware that the world containing their minds is a virtual reality simulacrum.” I heard that reading Simulacron-3 was required for the people who produced the Matrix.

          Stross’s character makes a case for uploading being the outcome of computer games.

          I make a case for marketing reasons that it will have to be reversible, so you can upload for a weekend and try it. Technically uploading into computer space and going back to what passes as the real world are both so hard that making it bidirectional should not be much more difficult than a one way path into being an upload.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Engineers always think that they can figure out the risk to nuclear devices by adding up their perception of risks of various types.

      Insurance people know that when it comes to insurance policies, they can be written on two different bases: (1) named perils, or (2) all risk. No matter how complete the “Named Perils” policies are, the cost of the “All Perils” policies nearly always comes out higher. There are things that engineers cannot forecast in advance.

      • I’m foreseeing human hubris in advance. Can’t put a monetary value on my risk assessment.

        Gold Teepee
        writes
        “You’d naturally shut down the reactors if there’s a serious tsunami warning in place. Technically there’s not that much of risk beyond the structural damage a serious tsunami could cause. Not to mention tsunamis don’t appear from nowhere, you’d have some warning.”
        The most confident people always seem to be the people who know the least about a given subject,just say what people want to hear…and re the ones usually tasked with emergency planning.

      • Christian says:

        I didn’t looked at Durham’s paper, but I wouldn’t be surprised if their tsunamis are equivalent to US EMPs, i.e. metaphors for the end of bau (while emp taskforce did used the words “financial black swan”)

  6. Fast Eddy says:

    BREAKING NEWS!

    Following the shock announcement that he will step down from office, John Key was issuing a no comment as to why four lorries were seen delivering 40 foot shipping containers and placing in the paddock out back of his home.

    Mr Key was also spotted at Mitre 10 numerous times throughout the week apparently loading up on gardening tools.

    He was overheard asking one of the staff ‘do you by any chance sell solar powered disco balls — and if not – do you know where I might get my hands on one — it’s rather urgent’

    • unravel
      unravel says:

      Him gardening? Unlikely – you clearly havent seen the clip of him trying to swing a hammer …

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      LOL!

  7. Fast Eddy says:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-05/curve-screaming-producer-hedging-shale-companies-scramble-lock-oil-prices

    Goldilocks…. bump the price up to allow producers to lock in higher prices…. and stay alive a little longer?

    Then allow prices to fall — to take some pressure off the economy?

  8. From the Guardian, by Paul Mason:

    “The Soviet Union collapsed overnight. Don’t assume western democracy will last for ever”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/05/soviet-union-collapsed-overnight-western-democracy-liberal-order-ussr-russia

    Extract:

    “But when the country that designed globalisation, imposed it and benefited from it most votes against it, you have to consider the possibility that it is going to end, and suddenly. If so, you also have to consider a possibility that – if you are a liberal, humanist democrat – may be even more shocking: that oligarchic nationalism is the default form of failing economies.”

    Here he slides into over-optimism:

    “Our last great hope will be ourselves. And there are enough of us to stop this second great collapse towards oligarchy and nationalism. We are networked, aware, educated and – for now – psychologically resilient. As we link together and resist we can learn a lot from those who have been doing it, quietly, in Russia.”

    • Tim Groves – Japan
      Tim Groves says:

      Mr. Mason is one of the more reasonable and rational Guardianistas. But due to a failure of imagination because he’s surrounded at that DelusiSTANi paper by an unpleasantness of hardcore cultists, he doesn’t appreciate that net energy decline is a falling tide that lowers all boats, or that the sudden end of globalization could also herald the sudden end of industrial society, period.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Right! And the Soviet Union collapse in some sense was not very bad, because the rest of the world held together, and because the individual states held together. It also helped that Russia was energy self-sufficient. Once oil prices rose again, Russia was again able to develop its oil exports and prosper.

  9. Kurt says:

    So now that Italy is collapsing, guess where all the money goes? Right into that U. S. stock market. Go figure. I thought we were all supposed to collapse because of the tinker toy model or something like that.

    • don’t forget the law:

      If a nation doesn’t produce sufficient indigenous energy from within its borders to supply e aspirations of its people, it must beg buy borrow or steal it from somewhere else, or sink back to a sustainable level.

      as money is only a token of energy, the same rule applies to the Italian money market..

      It is a law that does not apply instantly, but over time shuts a country down despite all the riot and mayhem (these have yet to happen in Italy).
      I said Italy was next after Greece, (which is now in a growing state of privation after the ”borrowing” phase) then Spain and probably france

      • Christian says:

        Say thanks to The Donald

      • worldofhanumanotg
        worldofhanumanotg says:

        Are you for real? Italy is a province, part of the EURland, which is again a cog in larger wheel of global bankster feudalistic structures, so exactly nothing is about to crash anytime soon. As demonstrated numerous time here before, the CBs are just warming up.. in terms of debt saturation.

        Italy will now most likely muddle through ~2018 for the next parliamentary elections. And after that it’s quite unlikely a gathering of serious overwhelming ~2/3 majority of various populists can get to even agree to force some serious proposal not mentioning real action plan on leaving the EUR and phasing back the much cheaper Lira economic model. In the meantime though, there will be many “sky is falling (again)” not moments but rather another wave of just chicken little announcements, even at worst some attempts to bail-out (put in on .it gov pile of debt books) or perhaps bail-in escapades might proceed.. Unpleasant for many yes, profit making/keeping for the very few yes indeed, this will be seen just as an episode from the rear-view mirror of more pressing realities of OFW as experienced sometime ~2025-2035.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        If the EU falls apart, there are going to be a lot of countries with problems, I expect. Germany has benefitted greatly from the EU organization. It will do less well also. It is a big energy importer.

        • the EU flowed together on a tidal wave of oil-prosperity after ww2, kindly funded by American loans.

          It was the first time in history that a conquering army had not looted and destroyed its foe after winning a war.
          so for the first time in 2000 years the nations of the european continent did not need to attack each other to grab resources.
          so instead we decided to combine into a ‘single market’ for the common good.

          which was fine as long as there was more than enough for everyone.
          right now we are reaching the end of that ‘time of plenty’ so europe is devolving into its nation states again—because there is no prosperity to hold them together.

          It may look different—but the same thing is happening in the USA.
          As ‘plenty’ disappears the USA will fall apart too, as will its ‘democracy’. It too will devolve into ‘nation states’.
          which explains the rise of fascist ideology once again

          democracy is the child of prosperity, it can never live as an orphan

          • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
            Gail Tverberg says:

            Agreed!

  10. Tim Groves – Japan
    Tim Groves says:

    And yet: A boom in electric vehicles made by the likes of Tesla Motors Inc. could erode as much as 10 percent of global gasoline demand by 2035, according to the oil industry consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd.

    Haven’t they heard that global gasoline demand will be close to non-existent by 2035?

    http://www.orrazz.com/2016/12/a-boom-in-electric-vehicles-made-by.html

  11. Fast Eddy says:

    Former Merrill banker cites desire for family time and backs deputy to take over

    https://www.ft.com/content/e2fec23a-ba8d-11e6-8b45-b8b81dd5d080

    Rather strange… we must be very close to the cliff edge now….

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Resigning as prime minister in order to have more family time is a bit bizarre!

  12. Yoshua says:

    If the world total energy production has reached a plateau… then a population growth will lead to a fall in energy per capita… then the opposite must be true as well… decapitations will increase energy per capita.

    Any volunteers ?

  13. MG says:

    Here is an article in Slovak that tries to analyze what would happen to the profits of several selected companies from various sectors operating in Slovakia if we increase the wages of the workers in various ways:

    http://blog.etrend.sk/iness/mozu-si-firmy-dovolit-vyssie-mzdy.html

    The main points are:

    – Even the low increase in net wages has big impact on the costs of the companies
    – The companies with higher share of capital (machines) have better “buffer” as regards the wage increases, when the production unit is manmachine (I am not sure, if this is the right term in English, could not find it fast, but it is the production unit consisting of man and machine), the constant costs of capital (machine) make the effect of costs increases of the human share smaller. These are the companies where the share of the wages on the product is lowest.
    – The banks are an extreme case: their good results depend on the cost of the capital and the cost of risk
    – The companies with the under the average wages are far more sensible to wage increases in absolute values. The wage increase of EUR 100 has a bigger impact than in the companies with higher wages, especially when they are service-oriented companies.

    So the wages of the employees of TESCO or Slovak Post have a little potential to be increased significantly. Moreover, IBM recrutes the employees from a different pool than TESCO or Slovak Post, so the wages in IBM are double the wages of TESCO or Slovak Post, as IBM faces higher competition when recruiting workers.

    • bandits101
      bandits101 says:

      Excepting debt growth is kaput, has been since 2008. Growth reports are after overhead reductions……store closures, asset liquidations, employee shedding, energy use reductions. There will be a proverbial last straw, most of us are wondering when.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I know that raising wages in restaurants tends to make the restaurant food unaffordable and, for that reason, tends to put restaurants out of business. The other alternative seems to be for management to find some form of automation that eliminates enough jobs at the same time that the wage increase goes in, so that costs can be kept the same. For example, automated ordering in fast food restaurants.

      It is hard to really model the situation, because there are so many “moving parts” to it. Falling total wages of workers, whether through layoffs or through falling income per hour is a good way to reach collapse.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Low margin businesses such as fast food restaurants … many retailers such as Walmart… would obviously be impacted the most by higher wages as they would be forced to increase prices or lay people off — otherwise they would face bankruptcy.

        Difficult to increase prices in this environment…

      • Given that energy consumption, trade, extraction, and manufacturing have all seen rather lackadaisical trends for the past couple of years now, one wonders where the purported growth in the global economy is coming from. Is it a matter of the financial sector powering ahead with no support and registering as sufficient increase to give us statistical economic growth, or is it a matter of fudged data from nations simply being slapped together with no analysis of underlying data?

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Trying to put together “world” data from individual country data is a huge problem. Also, knowing whether to believe the individual country data is another issue. The bias will always be in the direction of saying that things are better than they really are.

          Most of the world economic growth figures we see are on a “Purchasing Power Parity” (PPP) basis. This is an imaginative approach in Which the World Bank values each currency based on what a selected market basket of goods is worth in a given country. This is a fairly different number than the amount based on how much the currencies trade compared to the dollar. The PPP approach gives a whole lot more weight to China and other growing countries than does a dollar weighted approach. The dollar weighted approach even produces negatives in some years–a problem from the World Bank point of view. Unfortunately, oil is priced in dollars, so the ability of a country’s people to purchase energy products depends on how high a particular currency is in dollar terms, not in PPP terms.

          I try to use only dollar weighted world GDP figures. Getting these has a problem recently, because they tend to be negative.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        There will be those who are celebrating that …. not understanding the implications.

      • Christian says:

        It’s arrived. We should congratulate for our achievment and keep the path

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        This is related to coal consumption being down. I think our problem is partly “peak coal,” because of low prices.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Also, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi resigned in Italy. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/far-right-candidate-concedes-in-austrias-presidential-vote/2016/12/04/12a91500-b8b6-11e6-939c-91749443c5e5_story.html?utm_term=.f13afb8db4e4

      The same article says a former Green party candidate won in Austria, so not everything went the same direction.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I may throw my hat into the ring in NZ….

        I will Make New Zealand Great!

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          LOL!

    • ronan pellen
      Dorvek says:

      Hollande didn’t resign, he just begrudgingly won’t be seeking reelection next April (hint: his approval rating is in the single digit!)

  14. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/obama-iran-sanctions_us_584424b8e4b09e21702f3811

    At least from my computer there is a block at the above Huffingtonpost link to copy & paste, but read to be amazed and prepare yourselves for a face off we haven’t seen in decades, as Obama this Sunday will sign an extension of the IRANIAN SANCTIONS Sunday. The Ayathoa or whoever it’s spelled, has WARNED OF RETROBUTIONS if he goes ahead and signs.

    Well, this suddenly is a problem of presidential transitions, as Obama signs but Trump inherits the consequences, although he probably signed off on the decision, so at least he knows its on him now to handle this situation. How is Trump not going to get into it with Iran in a tug of words and warnings ratcheting up into something potentially destructive?! He gets into it with everybody else, so why would he suddenly stop with Iran?

    There’s a great movie called Nitro Zeus in which the US plants via a sub-contractor for the Iranian centrifuges, a flashdrive virus into the computer system that changes the speed of the centrifuges causing them damage. Well, not to go into the whole thing, but it ends up Iran knows the US with Israel did this sabotage, and they start building their own cyber warfare team. Then all the banks on the east coast go out for a day and one other thing they did, but only for a day, to send a message of their abilities at cyber warfare themselves. So the US develops Nitro Zeus, this pervasive cyber warfare virus that shuts down everything, the electrical, power, water, cable, you name it nothing works in Iran. But the question is would Iran risk it out of their idealogical furvor to retaliate? Big question and should make for heart pounding entertainment as we watch Wally Wick spout off like he always does, is how antagonistic will he get?

  15. Craig Moodie says:

    Fast Eddy, seriously, I just love your cynicism.

  16. DooGah says:

    If there was a organism in a petri dish in Georgia could that organism get to a petri dish in Indiana if their was a vacuum in between?

    • doomphd – Honolulu – I really hold a doctor of philosophy (phd) in geological sciences and study pretty doomy topics like giant landslides, volcanic eruptions and megatsunamis.
      doomphd says:

      Space travel. See Keith for details.

  17. Yoshua says:

    Saudi Arabia is a petro state almost entirely dependent on oil exports. The oil wealth has resulted in a population explosion from 3 million in 1950 to 30 million today. They have depleted their fossil water and now the wells are bone dry. The Saudi population is now dependent on Aramco to house, feed and bring water to a 30 million population. At todays oil price of $50 the Saudis are burning through their sovereign wealth fund at the rate of $100 million a year to keep the nation from collapse.

    • Yoshua says:

      That is of course $100 billion a year.

    • theyre not worried

      when the oil’s gone, they intend to ”diversify”….charging rent on their fantasy towers in the desert.

      those revenues will allow them to import oil from elsewhere.—-it is the perfect economic plan.

      • DJ says:

        Even the slightly more realistic plan of charging rent for solar panels won’t bring prosperity.

        The solar companies will put their panels where they are charged the least.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        That’s the appeal of DelusiSTAN…. it is possible to remain calm… believing whatever it is that makes one feel calm…

        Of course it does not change the end result because the believe is not real …. it is a delusion…

        No different than being on the 80th floor of a building that is burning… and convincing oneself that there is nothing to worry about … if the flames are not doused …. survival involves the simple matter of kicking out a window… leaping into the abyss… flapping one’s arms… and coasting to the ground…

        Or like believing one can survive the end of BAU by planting a garden

        Ba ha haha ha haha ha hahahahaha…..

    • Tim Groves – Japan
      Tim Groves says:

      “My grandfather rode a Camel, my father rode a Camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a Camel.”
      —Rashid bin Saeed Al Maktoum (Vice-President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Emîr of Dubai from 1958 to 1990).

      Two of Rashid’s sons have ruled as Emir since his death (one is the current ruler) and they could both afford to drive a Mercedes. But all in all, the prophesy concerning the great grandson(s) still has a good chance of coming true assuming camels remain available.

  18. Swiss Coaching Partners – Zug, Switzerland – e-mobility Infrastructure, e-vehicles, corporare sharing to perform a low carb society
    Swiss Coaching Partners says:

    Reblogged this on Swiss Coaching Partners.

  19. Fast Eddy says:

    For a moment there I thought Tim had been gazumped…

    5,000yrs of battery life: Nuclear waste-formed radioactive diamonds provide long-lasting energy

    https://www.rt.com/uk/369020-nuclear-battery-diamond-scientists/

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      If it weren’t for all of the pesky details, perhaps the world would be saved!

  20. Fast Eddy says:

    Clashes over immigration have erupted between police and two opposing protest groups in the Danish capital, Copenhagen, and resulted in the arrests of 11 people, local media reports.
    The street demonstration by the group “Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamization of the West,” or PEGIDA, took place simultaneously with a counter-rally.

    Pro-immigration protesters barricaded themselves against police. They set ablaze containers with litter and pieces of wood and lit a bonfire right on the roadway, which ended up in scuffles with police.

    https://www.rt.com/news/369122-denmark-pegida-antifa-demos/

    Hmmm… so it’s racist to not want illegal immigrants to pour into your country….

    I was in Denmark last month and I noticed there was a large street photo exhibition celebrating the influx of illegal immigrants….

    I was very impressed ….

    Koombaya at is’s finest.

    • Guy is right says:

      FE your position is irrational and contradictory. If your sermon was accepted, BAU would collapse overnight.

      This is a logical progression. So why are you trying to hasten the demise of BAU?
      EMWTK

    • “Make Racists Afraid Again”
      Looks like the ineffective work of social justice warriors.
      I have a theory what role SJWs play.
      The Globalists manage the global economy.
      The SJWs are the daughters and wives of globalists who have made themselves useful by serving as PR for globalization.
      Sometimes smoothing things over works better with a woman’s touch.
      http://atlantablackstar.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/black-lives-matter-founders-feat.jpg
      https://viralbuzz.today/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/180daa842d4942b71c04f66076f8d01b.jpeg
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXM8OftQ4os
      Not bad on the eyes, huh?

      The globalists needed a scapegoat for why the global economy is not working as planned. Xenophobia, and bigotry fit the bill as as reasons for why an increasing amount of college graduates are unemployed , why people are underpaid , why there aren’t more women in STEM. It’s half-true, like the greatest lies are, of course.

      I don’t think it’s a coincidence libertarians aren’t coming out of the woodwork, chanting “No protectionism! ” in organized protests but a lot of progresssives are chanting “no xenophobia!” There are claims that globalist and billionaire* George Soros is funding many of the non-profits concerned with social justice. On George Soros’ philanthropic Open Society web site, he does not list which groups his Open Society organization has funded but it seems like any group concerned with the social justice could receive money. The claims made Trump supporters that hired agiitators were planted by Left-wing groups to start trouble doesn’t seem as much of a conspiracy theory as it did back in August.

      He doesn’t seem to be interested in funding any efforts to make people like him more taxes however.

      *The CEO of one of the most profitable Wall Street investment firms defending multiculturalism and open borders does not seem like a stretch. It does seem ironic that some who is the epitomy of Financialization is supporting Progressive social justice activism. These Progressives would have been protesting against George Soros back during they heydays of the Occupy Wall Street Movement.

      It really seems like this Soros guy is trying to have it both ways:
      Support the little guy while insisting on bail-outs.

      https://www.rt.com/usa/soros-wall-street-movement-893/

      “The decision not to inject capital into the banks but to effectively relieve them of their bad assets, and them allow them to earn their way out of a hole, gave the banks bumper profits and that allowed them to pay bumper bonuses. As I say, I can sympathize with their grievances,” Soros said.

      Didn’t the bailouts also provide capital infusions into banks?

      • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
        Ed says:

        Seriously, I have been wondering what SJW stands for, now I know. All I had was single jewish woman.

    • “Make Racists Afraid Again”
      Looks like the ineffective work of social justice warriors.
      I have a theory what role SJWs play.
      The Globalists manage the global economy.
      The SJWs are the daughters and wives of globalists who have made themselves useful by serving as PR for globalization.
      Sometimes smoothing things over works better with a woman’s touch.
      http://atlantablackstar.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/black-lives-matter-founders-feat.jpg
      https://viralbuzz.today/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/180daa842d4942b71c04f66076f8d01b.jpeg
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXM8OftQ4os
      Not bad on the eyes, huh?

      The globalists needed a scapegoat for why the global economy is not working as planned. Xenophobia, and bigotry fit the bill as as reasons for why an increasing amount of college graduates are unemployed , why people are underpaid , why there aren’t more women in STEM. It’s half-true, like the greatest lies are, of course.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Almost as hot as the Alien ladies!

      • I don’t think it’s a coincidence libertarians aren’t coming out of the woodwork, chanting “No protectionism! ” in organized protests but a lot of progressives are chanting “no xenophobia!” There are claims that globalist and billionaire* George Soros is funding many of the non-profits concerned with social justice. On George Soros’ philanthropic Open Society web site, he does not list which groups his Open Society organization has funded but it seems like any group concerned with the social justice could receive money. The claims made Trump supporters that hired agitators were planted by Left-wing groups to start trouble doesn’t seem as much of a conspiracy theory as it did back in August.

        He doesn’t seem to be interested in funding any efforts to make people like him more taxes however.

        *The CEO of one of the most profitable Wall Street investment firms defending multiculturalism and open borders does not seem like a stretch. It does seem ironic that some who is the epitomy of Financialization is supporting Progressive social justice activism. These Progressives would have been protesting against George Soros back during they heydays of the Occupy Wall Street Movement.

        It really seems like this Soros guy is trying to have it both ways:
        Support the little guy while insisting on bail-outs.

        rt.com/usa/soros-wall-street-movement-893

        “The decision not to inject capital into the banks but to effectively relieve them of their bad assets, and them allow them to earn their way out of a hole, gave the banks bumper profits and that allowed them to pay bumper bonuses. As I say, I can sympathize with their grievances,” Soros said.

        Didn’t the bailouts also provide capital infusions into banks?

      • Apparently, I’m not allowed to post anything about George Soros on here.

      • Pintada says:

        Dear A Real Black Person;

        Dr Zimdars didn’t last long. It seems people really like their views whether she considered them delusional or not.

        Your youtube video was from 11/29. This is from 11/19. Are you posting fake news??
        https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/technology/melissa-zimdars-removes-fake-news-list-claiming-harassed-doxed/

        Am I posting fake news???
        Pintada

    • The Left used to have the reputation of having unattractive women as pundits. I think they’ve actually tackled that in recent years.
      This one of the “most watched” women on Youtube.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ua56b6EygLg
      I don’t think it’s just because of her feminist views.

  21. HPLC guru says:

    Excellent article. One thing though is cars will need to be replaced by some sort of public transportation. No matter what the car runs on (other than pedal power) the idea that we should spend so much capital on 1500 kg carrying usually a single 100 kg that we use 3 – 5% of the time is a thermodynamic farce. Add the 1st Law loss from generating electricity for electric cars makes them horrible compared to public transportation. On top of this cars are financed by interest rates that are exponential functions that grow faster than the physical world can grow to pay them off.
    As a chemist I was forced to take thermodynamics (including statistical thermodynamics, an open book course that proved to me I was dumber than wood) and other physics courses none of which are not a matter of opinion. Unlike your work most of the rhetoric on energy is filled with magical thinking.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      If we shifted to public transport options over cars in a significant way… the car industry would collapse … millions of jobs would be lost (in the auto industry directly and various industries that rely on the car industry including mining) and the global economy would collapse.

      • InAlaska says:

        But all of those auto industry jobs are going to eventually be eliminated anyway through automation, and so the collapse of the auto industry is not only inevitable but desirable as the only means by which one of the large contributors to global CO2 is reduced. I doubt very much that the withering of the auto industry in gradual stages will cause general global economic collapse.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          And if it were possible for robots to take every job related to the auto industry (it’s not) that would result in a deflationary death spiral as well – and a total collapse of the economy.

          Either way – we get collapse. I’ll take my collapse later than sooner… and I ain’t taking the bus.

          More cars – more subprime auto loans – more More MORE!!!

          • InAlaska says:

            Yes, indeed, you are right. Either way we get to a collapse. Sooner or eventually. I guess that puts us back into the debate about fast or slow collapse. Your position has been consistently that it will be fast and brutal. I’m estimating it will be slow and perhaps less brutal, or at least the brutality will be stretched out over a longer time horizon.

            • ” I’m estimating it will be slow and perhaps less brutal, or at least the brutality will be stretched out over a longer time horizon.” Oh, yes. Reality will do this for your sake. This is a solipsistic position to take . Evidence suggests the end of industrial civilization will not be slow.

              Decline is slow. It can happen over a longer time period than collapse. Collapse is usually short and brutal. The global economy is not resilient enough for a nice and gentle decline. Regions can decline as long as people can move away or be supported with handouts from regions that are prospering or have resources to spare. Barring extensive support from areas that are doing well, countries/societies in regions that aren’t doing well collapse.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Let me guess….

              You are betting it will be long and drawn out because you know that if it is cliff like you will not be able to survive up there In Alaska….

              You have thought about the Fast Eddy Challenge (although not actually tried it) and you have determined that when the electricity goes off permanently — and the petrol shops shutter – Walmart is no more — and you are completely unplugged from BAU…. you are dead.

              It is comforting to believe that the decline will be gradual…. a BAU Lite situation where there is still electricity — but for only a few hours per day … enough to wash your clothes and run your water pumps…. that there is petrol but on a rationed basis… all you really need is enough to operate the chain saw … that the shops are still open but with limited inventory … as long as you can get ammo … and spare parts … and a sack of rice when the famine hits…

              I get it.

              Keith has his aliens… others have Jesus… some have the Permie God… some even do the sun thing….

              Whatever it takes — to keep the monsters from your dreams.

        • If unemployment skyrockets because of automation…then who is going to buy the cars made by robots?

          Did you think this through?

          “I doubt very much that the withering of the auto industry in gradual stages will cause general global economic collapse.” If economic activity from the auto industry isn’t replaced, it will. There are no other industries out the horizon that could replace the economic activity that would disappear along with the auto industry. There is no replacement for fossil fuels. A reduction in CO2 emissions is a reduction is global economic activity. You must be so far up the food chain that you think you’ll be able to avoid unemployment or you’re holding the torch for the Green Economy.

          • DJ says:

            Once EU have expanded to cover the whole world we can tax the siht out of the corporations and everyone who so desires can live a life of leisure.

            On our way to Utopia we have to tax the tshi out of the shrinking number of workers.

            • The technocrats advocating for this Utopia think that there is more wealth than ever in this world, enough for everyone to live like Americans. What we face, according to them is a problem of distribution. The wealth is being created with machines, who aren’t being taxed or do not earn a income. All that needs to be done is to raise taxes on the capitalists and their robots. Additional tax revenue from the capitalists and their robots will be used to provide a Universal Basic Income to every single human being and humans will live happily ever after. The End. (of work).

            • DJ says:

              Simple as that!

              Except standard will be like Mexico, and shrinking with depletion and incentive decline.

              But the prospects of living like mexicans will be just the motivation scientists need to get fusion and AI to work.

            • InAlaska says:

              ARBP, try not to be so melodramatic. No new cars, built by robots or by people, are going to be purchased once this all starts to unravel. The Cubans lived with automobiles from the 1950s and patched them together by hand for sixty years.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I assume you are trying to make a point ….

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              Cubans practically do not use cars. The roads are almost empty there, at least based on my visit. Maybe horse-drawn carts. The 1950s cars that are patched up are mostly for the benefit of tourists.

            • “One our way to Utopia we have to tax the tshi out of the Rich”
              Bernie Sanders advocated for that. That was doa…why would the rich who governments and large corporations support that? They would not be rich anymore…and there would be no one motivated enough rule our governments or large corporations for a pittance.

              Reducing the income of the managerial class is close to impossible.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            ‘Did you think this through?’

            Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha (to infinity)

            Think? What is that? Is that like imagine?

            Think it through …. imagine it through?

            Imagine if people stopped buying cars – what a wonderful world — electric buses… jolly good… we are saved – we are saved – hallelujah we are saved…. sweet jesus … awesome Allah…

            Alas we must kill the auto industry … (photo interlude… Koombayaists must NOW close eyes…)

            http://www.thesleuthjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/fall-of-detroit.jpg

            Why think… why not just spew … whatever comes to mind… whatever feels good… groovy even… (Koombayaists must NOW grab an organic beer and prepare to Dance around the Camp Fire — it is your moment…)

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvlW4bEjB5A

            Allo … allo… this is Alien ship 976… calling Keith… Keith we have more orders for you…. (hold that thought)

            ARBP — this is what we are dealing with here…. the goal of the Koombayaists is to destroy logic and facts and thoughtfulness…

            They want to make you believe that none of this matters… up is down — a circle is a square… no no — they want you to think it does not matter – a circle a square up down left right .. who cares…

            Keith slipped the other day with the alien comments… the aliens are behind this.. they do exist… they are Zombifying the planet…

            FW is the Alhambra of logic…. the Zombies from the planet DelusiSTAN are at the wall… the Hordes of Idiocy…

            Quickly… help me … let’t throw the pot of boiling oil onto them…. better still … let us fling the barrels of bubbling hot bitumen upon their heads….

            http://i.alalam.ir/news/Image/original/2016/08/14/alalam_636067928183889149_25f_4x3.jpg

            If it feels groovy – Just Do It!

          • louploup2
            louploup2 says:

            “A reduction in CO2 emissions is a reduction is global economic activity.”

            Single most important sentence in many posts. This truth needs to be repeated, and repeated, and repeated.

          • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
            Gail Tverberg says:

            Right!

    • Christian says:

      “One thing though is cars will need to be replaced by some sort of public transportation.”

      That’s elite’s plans

      “At the summit, mayors discussed a new report outlining actions cities could take that would account for 40% of the emissions reductions necessary to keep the global temperature from rising by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. To do that, the report found, they would need to ensure that emissions peak by 2020 and then drop DRAMATICALLY.”

      http://www.businessinsider.com/cities-ban-diesel-vehicles-by-2025-2016-12

      http://www.businessinsider.com/cities-going-car-free-2016-8/#people-in-chengdu-china-will-be-able-to-walk-anywhere-in-15-minutes-or-less-3

      • doomphd – Honolulu – I really hold a doctor of philosophy (phd) in geological sciences and study pretty doomy topics like giant landslides, volcanic eruptions and megatsunamis.
        doomphd says:

        Those chocolate bars were bad for you anyway. The way I rationalize it, chocolate manufacturers, realizing their product causes diabetes and other health problems, have voluntarily cut back on the portions, to help with our dietary health. Next up: chocolate rationing coupons, Brown Thursdays, etc.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Global emissions will never be reduced. We will increase the burning of fossil fuels right until the very end of BAU.

        That is guaranteed.

        The climate conferences are held for the sole purpose of calming the sheeple…. they are Potemkin Villages… with pre-ordained decisions thought up by Don Drapers…

        All that happens is the participants fly over in private jets …. check into fancy hotels …. eat gourmet dinners and drink fine wines… then after this relaxing vacation – they read the press releases…the world applauds…. and they get back on their private jets….

        • DJ says:

          What is the purpose of calming the sheeple?

          If no one had mentioned several meters sea level rise no one would worry. And even now most don’t worry, if they are even aware.

          • Ert says:

            @DJ

            What is the purpose of calming the sheeple?

            Someone the system can’t control will bring up the topic. The whole media-climate-conference-hocus-pocus provides a narrative…. that some people will do something and life goes on.

            Whatever… (doomerish) McPherson says in 2030 its over, (doomerish) E*T*P modell says in 2030 its over… lots of people here are the option that in 2030 its over… enjoy it while it lasts and get you popcorn ready 🙂

          • Fast Eddy says:

            The Green Groupies have a lot to answer to for upsetting the sheeple in the first place….

        • Christian says:

          Elites know HC supply is starting to shrink and (as Ert says) they need to provide a “positive” narrative about the fact; in the same line we talked about Saudi’s “cuts” and Trump’s “protectionism” we have Cities “decarbonisation”

          Elites are not doomerist by definition. Their job is to keep BAU alive, and that’s what they’ll do. But they can’t do it without narratives

          • DJ says:

            Either emissions (and supply) keeps growing to the very end, or the leaders believe emissions (and demand) can shrink, at least for a while.

            The only reason to mention climate change is if it either is true or if they want a “positive narrative” to shrinking emissions.

          • Tim Groves – Japan
            Tim Groves says:

            Christian and DJ, Yes and yes. What you are both saying makes a lot of sense.

            I think the elites or the Elders are attempting a managed decline while averting a general collapse, and plausible narratives are an essential part of the effort.

            • DJ says:

              And what are the odds to make this hold together until 2030?

              Prohibit ICE, EV will always be to expensive for everyone. Compact urban living. Vegetarianism. Keep competitive workers in the workforce way past 65. Wind and solar. And many smaller measures.

              All these are signs we are running out of resources but are sold (and bought) as progress.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              ‘You Can’t Handle the Truth!’ (in a different way)

            • do i get to choose who i eat?

            • DJ says:

              One more flew over cuckoos nest …

            • louploup2
              louploup2 says:

              If the elites were truly trying to “manage decline” wouldn’t they be promoting narratives that slow population growth? Or would any focus on limits to growth make the inevitable too obvious?

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Refer to Japan to understand the implications of slowing or declining population growth – then extend that globally

            • DJ says:

              What about Japan? The tsunamis? The rob ot sxe?

              Increasing GDP per capita. Increasing life expectancy. Decreasing child mortality. Top 2 or 3 in PISA. Real Estate prices as third of when it was most expensive.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        The problem with public transportation is that it needs to be financed by increased government spending. There are no funds for increased government spending. Ultimately they need to come from the consumers’ pocketbooks. For most people, public transportation only partly eliminates the need for a car, so there is little direct benefit. Also, the only direct benefit is the fuel savings; other auto costs stay the same. Falling resale value of automobiles would be a catastrophe, because it would put resale value of cars even farther below the outstanding values on loans. The whole idea cannot possibly work.

        • bandits101
          bandits101 says:

          Cars are what made suburbia popular and viable. As you say public transport could only service a medium part……or you get shanty towns and their inherent problems. The cost for meeting the needs and expectations of the majority, would be taxing to say the least. For perspective (and I’ve said this many times) stand on a freeway overpass for an hour or so.

          Firstly note the amount of traffic servicing the outer lying regions, note the diversity, trucks of many, many varieties….fire, military, garbage, petroleum, food, machinery, agriculture…….note the service vehicles, police, plumbers, builders, maintenance of huge variety, ambulance, sales reps, electricians and many, many more that cannot be replaced by public transport or be electrified.

          The network and variety (similar to much else you describe) is irrevocably connected. The vital connections of a beating heart, veins and arteries are fossil fuels. Cut even a fraction of the necessary coal or oil or gas and the beating heart would suffer an infarction. It is just an example of the overshoot dilemma FF’s have manifested. IMO there is no going back or even substitution without a great deal of suffering everywhere, not just locally or in some country that assumes it can remain an island in a sea of want.

          • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
            Gail Tverberg says:

            Right! And you still have to maintain the roads, a huge energy expense, to service the many specialized vehicles.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Yes, most of the rhetoric on energy is filled with magical thinking.

      So is most of the rhetoric on how much public spending we can afford. We cannot afford the public spending we are doing now. In fact, we have promised even more, because of the growing population of elderly. Adding public transportation on top of personal autos cannot work for this reason. There is no way that private autos can cut back soon enough to support the cost of all the needed built infrastructure. I also made another comment on this issue.

  22. dolph says:

    Jews. Blacks. Illegal Mexicans. Corporations.
    All wanting their share of the wealth of the hated white American.

    So what’s the hated white American going to do? Why, vote for the corporations, of course! At least get screwed by your own.

    • Artleads says:

      I thought that if you were born or naturalized an American citizen, you were as American as anybody else, and deserving of the rights of all citizens under the law (apart from the right to be president in one case). What is your point about white America? And what’s your reason for lumping Jewish and Black American citizens along with “illegal” Mexicans?

      • DJ says:

        And US is held up as an example how people of different races, customs and religion can live side by side and gain economic advantage over homogenous countries.

        How depressing.

    • Tango Oscar
      Tango Oscar says:

      Jews enjoy white privilege the same as other white Americans. Many Jews run or are connected to the banks and corporations as well.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Back in the day when the Brits were in charge of the world… in a place like Canada … if your surname was not Jones or Smith or Matheson or similar….. it was very difficult to get a management or higher level job…

        The middle and upper echelons were dominated by Anglo Saxons…

        Similarly but not to such an extreme…. the current rulers of the world are disproportionately represented in senior positions across various industries.

  23. MG says:

    When the famous physicist does not understand the finite world of the human species:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/01/stephen-hawking-dangerous-time-planet-inequality

    • DJ says:

      It seems he is aware of limits “because we have the means to destroy our world but not to escape it”, and that he is suggesting some form of global socialism.

      That means we few “rich” must go much further than half the way to meet the many poor.

    • Christian says:

      The last line:

      “The writer launched http://www.unlimited.world earlier this year” (powered by UBS)

      Gail, the most famous phycisist is willing to beat you !!!

      • I’m not sure why Steve Hawking is being asked about anything other than black holes.
        He doesn’t seem to have above average insight when discussing anything other than those.

        What has Hawking said that hasn’t about current global problems that hasn’t been said by Hillary Clinton and every other technocrat ?

        Steve Hawkings writes” we must help people to re-train for a new world and support them financially while they do so” I guess it is true what they say: when one welds hammer, everything begins to look like nails. A college professor at a prestigious school would naturally see global problems as a result of technological unemployment and a lack of education.

        I don’t understand the clout this guy has.There’s nothing that he uncovered that wouldn’t have been uncovered eventually. Does he serve as an inspirational figure to instill faith in human will and technology? If Modernism were a religion, Hawkings could be a saint of it.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          We often see successful business people asked questions about things completely out of their realm of expertise…. as if they are all-knowing….

        • Kurt says:

          He has never been in contact with anyone with an iq less than 140. He just doesn’t understand that 75% of the population just won’t be smart enough to do the jobs that will remain.

          • Maybe he’s not as smart as we think he is
            The same can be said about many members of the cognitive elite
            http://observer.com/2015/08/stephen-hawking-elon-musk-and-bill-gates-warn-about-artificial-intelligence/

            Instead of confronting real threats and solving them, they are considered with artificial threats.

            • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
              Ed says:

              ARBP everyone is limited by the information stream they choose. How smart people manage to avoid thinking about limits to growth is amazing. I work with people who should know better but they carry on about self driving cars and basically infinite growth in its high tech forms. They say in 15 years we will have …., and I think we will be lucky if we are still alive in 15 years.

          • Maybe he’s not as smart as we think he is
            The same can be said about many members of the cognitive elite
            http://observer.com/2015/08/stephen-hawking-elon-musk-and-bill-gates-warn-about-artificial-intelligence/

            Instead of confronting real threats and solving them, they are concerned with artificial threats.

            • bandits101
              bandits101 says:

              The absolute elephant in the room is overpopulation. It’s the base problem to which EVERYTHING is related, regarding the current human predicament. The whole world seems to be in denial. Because there is no obvious or worthwhile solution and of course because it’s simply all too hard it’s ignored. Similar to a child covering their eyes…….if they can’t see it it’s not there. Collectively, not understanding the exponential function was/is indeed our greatest failing.

            • that’s always my main point

              growth graphs clearly show that we are on track to hit 9 or even 10 billion by 2050ish

              Clearly that cannot happen, yet the mothers of that extra 2 bn are alive now, they will want to reproduce themselves. Obviously something must happen between then and now to prevent it.
              The only large scale depopulation events in our memory spans have been world wars and (for example) the Russian and Chinese famines. All in the 2oth century.

              They didn’t dent population growth, so by definition it has to be something bigger, and faster.

              We seem to have 3 options:

              1 Nuclear war
              2 Pandemic
              3 arctic Methane release.

              the world is also on track for increased temperature rise by burning fossil fuels, moreso since the loonytoons Trump gang took over, They intend to burn everything in sight in order to “create jobs”.
              They have a mandate to do so by an electorate that is convinced that prosperity can be voted into office.
              So rising population and rising temperature are going to collide in spectacular fashion. And the methane is sitting there, ready to be released.
              Don’t know if I’d go along with Guy Macpherson’s view of being dead in 10 years—but there’s certainly a growing possibility of it.

            • bandits101
              bandits101 says:

              The Second World War was assumed to have caused sixty odd million excess deaths, over six years. Many of those would have died anyway, the world was still netting thirty million people extra annually.

              The First World War caused approximately 38 million deaths over four years. The Spanish Flu in 1919 was estimated to have killed between 50 – 100 million world wide over a period of 18 months, that was about 5% of the population.

              The point being I guess is that we now have 5 billion more people than WW2 and 6 billion more than WW1. Clearly even a 5% reduction now is incomprehensible, we are adding 80 million every year. Even reducing by 100 million annually will only net a 20 million pay day…….a drop in the ocean.

              Population growth is out of “reasonable” measures of control. A nuclear war that kills billions, would likely runaway to killing everyone, there is no need anyway as you say overshoot has ensured our demise by its “natural consequences”….starvation and environmental destruction, amongst others.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              True. But somehow early populations understood that population couldn’t outgrow their food supply without dire ramifications. They built in ways of cutting back population, such as rites of passage at puberty that killed off part of the population. The fact that we have had fossil fuel energy to support our growing population has caused us to lose sight of the obvious.

            • Christian says:

              I think they are smart, their way. I suppose as these three people are involved in AI/high tech, this is the closest metaphor they can imagine to address unemployement. It’s some form of telling “hey, there is unemployment and it’s not us who will curb it down”

            • Ert says:

              @Norman

              “yet the mothers of that extra 2 bn are alive now, they will want to reproduce themselves.”

              Thats what I don’t get in a lot of women… the total mind-warp they are able to do in regard of children and the nest-building thingy. When I bring the kids issue on the table, women react even more absurd then men… there is a heavy splitting-off / mental separation at work…. ignoring all the facts – or projecting them to “the others” only.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              That’s because mamma is nothing more than a host for Mr DNA who’s prime directive is to create more hosts so that he can remain immortal….

              Mr DNA can get vicious when his immortality is threatened… suggesting the host not breed would understandably upset Mr DNA..

              He also becomes quite agitated when the host is threatened with physical violence… or when the host is starved of food…

              My personal Mr DNA and I have a long standing feud — he insists that I breed — I tell him to piss off… he rages and rants and pulls his hair out…. I laugh at him which – as you can imagine — sends him into a frenzy.. then when he is not looking.. I give him a very hard right cross to the face followed by another stiff shot to the body …. he knows his place…

              http://fightstate.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/knocked-out-tooth.jpg

              What he does not know is that I have chosen a rock cut and that once BAU is finished — I will terminate him….

              This will be the battle royale of all time…. I will fight to hold the accelerator to the floor … and the steering wheel on a true course… he will attempt to override by urging me to live on….

              But terminate him I will….

            • DJ says:

              Ert,
              99% of people deny overpopulation COULD be a problem.

              Having children or not is only a question of economics and disturbed sleep.

            • Ert says:

              @DJ

              Then 99% of the people are stupid or have no brains.

              Thats also the reason I stopped lots of activities, since when people are for energy saving, against nuclear, against pollution, against poverty – then they should act and reduce their consumption – starting with the biggest impact factor: Kids in the western world! One per couple is more than enough…..

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Then we could all turn Japanese… a declining or even stagnating population … is a bad thing

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Bizarre!

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Someone needs to explain to Steven Hawkings that the economy is a dissipative structure. Also, that increased hierarchical behavior is a sign of inadequate energy availability.

  24. https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
    Brent up to $54.46 a barrel!!! So much for all the suggestions that oil price would continue to drop.

    And not far from my predicted price of $60 a barrel by year end of 2016, made during Thanksgiving of 2015. It could still break 60, and if not, the prediction was not far off considering the price at the time was in the low 30’s with many on this site saying the price would never go up again, only down. My prediction was scoffed at in 2015 and I was told I was in a fantasy world. Which just goes to show price is determined no differently than it ever was, by supply & demand, and as the following years pass people will come to understand how wrong the Hills Group was in their prediction of a barrel of oil only being worth $20 dollars in 2019 (for various energy related false prognostications).

    • greg machala says:

      Not to take away from your accurate prediction but, with the recent volatility in oil prices, maybe a rolling average oil price would be more representative of the trend.

    • Kurt says:

      +++++++++++++++ !!!!!!!

      The system is reacting in a way that makes sense. Not the way some people think it “should” react, but that’s what makes this so much fun. Congrats on being correct.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      You should contact bloomberg and tell them you almost got it right…. they might have you on as a guest.

    • Joebanana says:

      Stigler-
      I don’t think you are at all right about the Hills Group. $54.46 is well within the maximum price they were looking for this tear. Believe me, I hope you are right but I think it is way too soon for you to discount the ETP model.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        The minor detail is that the model doesn’t make sense.

    • Joebanana says:

      Stilgar-
      I would not do the victory lap yet. $54.46 is well with what the Hills Group expected this year. I hope they are wrong but we will know soon enough.

      • Christian says:

        I’m not very familiar with Hills model, but I think they only talk about price and disregard volume… If this is the case, that’s an explanation why they are wrong

        • Christian says:

          Btw, congrats. Stilgar.

          Perhaps Gail’s deflationary forecast is not correct either

          • adonis says:

            what goes up must come down , i think the price will drop again gail’s deflationary forecast will be vindicated the only question is how low im guessing mid 30’s

            • Christian says:

              Adonis, as far I can see you’re not a person used to reasoning. You’re not doing it now, for sure.

              Look at the discussion we had yesterday, that’s an attempt to understand what is happening and what will

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              When storage gets filled up, price may go even lower.

    • psile
      psile says:

      Oil is like a cake that only gets bigger with the eating. Right? Besides, it’s not 2019, yet, and WTI oil went as low as $24, before jawboning and other price manipulation saw it rise to $51. They may succeed in pushing prices higher, but can the ordinary consumer afford it?

      I don’t know anything about the Hills Group Report, but I do know that pundits have been wrong on both sides of the oil price many, many times and that the earth is not a magic pudding that keeps on giving.

  25. adonis says:

    meanwhile more confirmation that global warming could be the biggest con job perpetrated on mankind yet http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-02/do-1901-expedition-logbooks-confirm-there-no-global-warming

  26. Stefeun says:

    The Curse of the Modern Office
    by Kris De Decker

    The information society promises to dematerialise society and make it more sustainable, but modern office and knowledge work has itself become a large and rapidly growing consumer of energy and other resources.
    http://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2016/11/the-curse-of-the-modern-office.html

    A well-made article, as usual on this site.
    I think the bottom-line is, as said in the comments, that optimization of the production reduces the resilience, and therefore leads to implementation of controls, and controls of controls, adding (energy-consuming) informational layers ad nauseam.
    The production itself becomes more and more disembodied and efficient, as long as energy inputs are available and externalities have left something to exploit and sell to solvable consumers.

    • Artleads says:

      Doesn’t seem to be an argument for efficiency. I’m also trying to figure out how economic programs–like tourism–might work instead. Uses what’s there, what’s distinct, has to do with intellectual and cultural resources rather than stuff.

      • Stefeun says:

        What’s promoted as energy efficient never takes into account all parameters, and is in fact largely inefficient when you look at the broader picture.
        We’ll most likely keep on extracting and burning everything we can, until we can’t anymore. We might be very close to this Wile E. Coyote moment.

        • Artleads says:

          “We’ll most likely keep on extracting and burning everything we can, until we can’t anymore.”

          We might. It wouldn’t be rational, but we might. My ONLY concern is to discern what IS rational and pose it as a conjecture.

          • Stefeun says:

            Artleads,
            We imagine ourselves as being rational, responsible and all that, but it isn’t true: we’re emotional beings. As individuals, and even more at collective level.

            I imagine our brains as made of 3 layers, the first is reptilian and insures the vital functions, the second is the limbic one where take place the emotions and impressions, and the third is the neocortex (thinking, rationality, abstraction, higher levels of consciousness, …).
            The lower level is autonomous, one can live (well, stay alive) with the basic functions only, but the neocortex needs the other two below to pass it the information it can then process. That is energy-(and time-) consuming, and btw came into existence thanks to our ability to gather higher rates of energy from our environment.

            In hard times, I’d expect the neocortex to stop functioning (intermittent shutdowns, at least), thus making better use of the scarce energy available and increasing one’s chances of survival. I don’t believe that rationality could play any significant role on the downward slope, wether for individuals, or -even less- for large communities.

            • Artleads says:

              But we the privileged within the heart of BAU, are not experiencing yet the full impact of those “hard times.” So those two lower levels of the brain are not yet so taxed that they can’t pass on the information the neocortex requires to make optimal decisions. Pressures are mounting all around us, and the masses lack the ability to reflect on or analyze those encircling forces of pressure. That puts a logical responsibility on those of us who can reflect to circumvent, ameliorate, whatever, that mass lack of reflection. Not to use the small window of time to plan before the noose totally tightens would be unwise. We might only have this little time, ever, to TRY and switch the tracks so the train can go somewhere else other than into the wall. People made relatively rational decisions to restrain or prevent the deployment of nuclear weapons. That, so far, and with luck which comes whence we don’t know, has prevented nuclear war these past 70 years. I would call that “rational” behavior. To try and figure out how (and through creative means) “BAU” can remain as long as we can foresee seems like a reasonable thing to do. I think tourism is something to consider in that regard.

            • Artleads says:

              I responded at some length, but it didn’t post, or hasn’t posted yet. In a nutshell, those “hard times” you mentioned haven’t come yet to us posting on this blog. We still have a little time left for the neocortex to function. I may have a different perspective on how to use that “little time” than you. 🙂

            • Stefeun says:

              Yes Artleads,
              I think collapse is unavoidable, we only don’t know when. So it shouldn’t matter how one uses his/her time, uses BAU or not, because once it’s gone, it’s gone.

              However, in the meantime we may very well have to live under authoritarian regimes. We should therefore try to avoid the nasty effects, which seems to mean living in a remote place and limit any dependence link.
              For the rest, enjoy the present time to the fullest.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              Right! Enjoy the time we have now. We don’t know how long it will last.

      • Tourists still need to consume stuff. Everything that everybody does involves the consumption of physical products. Some form of energy at a minimum – such as food, for example – which therefore needs to be produced using more stuff. One nation can only become an all-services economy if another nation is or multiple other nations are) supplying it with all the stuff it needs – and that would be an awful lot of stuff for any of the world’s national economies.

        • Artleads says:

          “Tourists still need to consume stuff.”

          What does that mean? There isn’t only one kind of tourism. There is cruise ship tourism, five star hotel tourism, or a great variety of types that use varying degrees of stuff. One form of tourism I’ve seen are roadside vendors in very poor countries. The four posts and thatch for the shed comes from where they live. Yes, they may sport a knife, a pot or a machete, but they had those things already anyway.

          • DJ says:

            The flight/travel must be the biggest waste?

            Eat and drink you have to do anyway.

            Probably you live crowded when traveling, if you rent out your home when you’re away it is a net win on housing efficiency.

            • Artleads says:

              Innovations are attempted like mad.

              “Why the state government would want to incentivize people already in debt to buy more expensive houses is beyond this reader. But, while structure of the payouts is worrisome, I’m glad to hear of any state looking to help ease the burden of student debt.”

              https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/grade-point/wp/2016/11/24/this-program-could-revolutionize-homeownership-for-student-loan-borrowers/?utm_term=.b1bf49a270d5

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              Fix the debt problem with more debt, perhaps at a lower interest rate!

            • Artleads says:

              Yet another “strange” movement:
              https://www.thebalance.com/combine-volunteering-and-travel-2502602

              Yes, travel costs. It used to be that the adventurous of little income could get to travel the world by hiring out to a boat as crew.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              You can even get paid to see the world and experience very exciting adventures!

              http://i.imgur.com/JDfgwE7.jpg

            • Artleads says:

              Maybe more innovations like that are worth comparing with top down rules?

              Berlin Rent Control

              “The key finding of the Thomschke paper is that the initial enactment of the law has reduced rents in rent-controlled flats compared to those not included in the scheme, but the effects have been less than the law intended, and are the benefits of rent control are not evenly distributed among different types of apartments. He concludes that the biggest impact of the rent control law has been to lower the prices charged for the largest and most expensive apartments. So, paradoxically, while the law was aimed at easing affordability problems for low and moderate income households, the chief beneficiaries of the law to date have been upper income households.”

              http://cityobservatory.org/does-rent-control-work-evidence-from-berlin/

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              Sort of depressing!

            • Artleads says:

              “You can even get paid to see the world and experience very exciting adventures!”

              That too. But as long as you are still able to hire out as crew and see the world that way as well, why not?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I like Kris De Decker’s work. He has a lot of good articles on Low Tech Magazine.

  27. ah but would he know an alien if he saw one???

    i remember all those 50s aliens movies—they were always lizards underneath, but looked just like you and me—well you anyway—walking around the main street, i always assumed that real aliens were just camera shy and wouldnt work in hollywood without disguises.

  28. hkeithhenson
    hkeithhenson says:

    “Acomb’s Razor”

    Occam’s razor, actually. “The principle can be interpreted as stating: Among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected.” So far, constructed alien megastructures appear to explain the results best. The known lack of IR above 65 K strongly limits the range of explanations. The 15% fade over the last century is hard to account for with any natural explanation. Aliens sopping up the energy with power satellites is more attractive than an F type star fading out. Anyway, it if was the star fading, it would get cooler and we don’t see that.

    Cold megastructure leads to predictions that can be tested. My bet is that we will know in less than a year.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      ‘So far, constructed alien megastructures appear to explain the results best.’

      You had very little credibility going in….

      • Joebanana says:

        I hope they are the hot aliens that Captain Kirk used to hook up with!

        • Greg Machala says:

          Take Pluto for example. The assumptions of it being a boring block of ice were wrong. And Pluto is practically right next door compared to this anomalous star. Scientist now believe (since the fly-by of Pluto) that there are liquid oceans under Pluto’s ice and possibly plate tectonics at play. Space is completely unknown to us. To say that a star 1000’s of light years away from us has an artificial mega structure built around it by an alien race is a bit of a stretch.

          • InAlaska says:

            Its likely that we would have heard something of “their” signals by now if they were engaged in solar engineering on that scale. Even as advanced a civilization as could do that would likely not be able to do it in radio silence.

            • hkeithhenson
              hkeithhenson says:

              “radio silence”

              Unless they were beaming out direction with GW of power, radio signals would be lost in the noise. 1480 light-years is a *long* way. We can see the star and the shadows when something blocks the light, but that because it’s a _star_. (And about 5 times as bright as our Sun.)

      • hkeithhenson
        hkeithhenson says:

        You have a better explanation? Or any at all?

        • Fast Eddy says:

          If in doubt … assume the Aliens did it….

          Life is so much simpler that way.

          • hkeithhenson
            hkeithhenson says:

            “assume the Aliens did it”

            It’s hard to infer a lot about the economy of an alien species with godlike but limited powers. (If they were not limited, they would be here, eating your lunch.) Still, if you take the 15% dimming of their star over the past century, they have been increasing their use of energy at about 0.14% per year. Ghod knows what near immortal aliens would use as either their accounting period or a discount rate.

            Still, if humans were to increase their energy use at only 1% per year, it would take a little less than 3000 years to be using 15% of the output of the sun. I suggest that it would be a rather bad idea to try to use that much energy on earth, so people will need to spread out, perhaps as Lofstrom suggests to 30 AU.

            With respect to the current concerns of this blog, the Earth is finite. Even the whole solar system is finite, but if we go off the planet, BAU might hold up 3000 more years.

            If we are looking at aliens, there must be a FE analog there, because they are running up against the limits of their nice, bright F type star. It’s obvious what the FE analog would say (or said, because what we see is 1480 years in the past). What’s hard to figure out is what the engineers (i.e., my analog) would be saying.

          • DJ says:

            I want to believe.

        • greg machala says:

          Yes natural causes that we have not discovered yet seems the most plausible.

          • hkeithhenson
            hkeithhenson says:

            Agree.

            If someone can come up with a mundane reason for all the weird behavior we see at Tabby’s star, that would be almost as cool as aliens.

            But it’s not going to be easy.

            I hung out for more than a decade with people who understood the potentials of nanotech and AI, the lynch pins of the singularity. I might add that for engineering reasons (thermal and speed of light) I disagreed with them on a number of points. The blinks we see at Tabby’s star make sense in engineering terms. If you want to maximize the amount of computation, given limited resources (and resources are always limited) then going out from the Sun (or star) is a good idea to get the temperature down.

            This leads to testable predictions. I am kind of surprised at the size, but it’s possible the computational core(s) is/are small but being cooled by a radiator on a size comparable to the star.

            How small the cores are depends on how fast or slow you want to have the universe run around you. Edge to edge, the 22% dip is a million km in diameter. It would take light 3 second to cross that distance. If the inhabitants are running at human speeds, that’s to slow for voice.

            What on (or rather off) Earth could they be doing with computation on that scale? Well, you know about the simulation hypothesis? That would sop up as much computation as you want. “The Clinic Seed” story worked around the edges of uploading humans into a simulation in the “boiling a frog” mode. Accelerado toward the end has the Vile Offspring generating simulations of everyone who left a written record. Consider that when posting. 🙂

            The point for this blog is that we are a very long way from running into limits. Low cost energy? Piffle. What’s the fuel cost of a 10,000 square km of sunlight out in space? Import so much energy that we get a second global warming? Use 200 M tons of asteroid to construct a sunshade at L1. (Google Dylson Dots, Kennedy to find the JBIS paper.)

            It’s not like I expect the Western countries to do this, though they might. It’s the Chinese who are on top of the initial power from space option.

            • DJ says:

              Are you suggesting they have built something surrounding 15% of their sun?

              At what distance from OUR sun would you build something like that?

              How much material would that take?

            • hkeithhenson
              hkeithhenson says:

              “surrounding 15% of their sun?”

              No. The evidence from the past somewhat confirmed by the Kepler data is that the light from this star has dimmed by 15% over the past century. To see the blinks from large light blockers, we need to be on the ecliptic of that system. How far north and south of the ecliptic the objects soaking up the light that come toward us is unknown, but even a degree or so would still be an awful lot of energy. If what’s catching the light is going through a thermal cycle, then they need to either be so far out that the radiators are really cold, or they need to be of a kind that radiates the waste heat local north and south away from our line of sight. Conceptual examples that radiate that way have been designed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-Lrj35HcbQ

              “At what distance from OUR sun would you build something like that?”

              That’s a really good question. I don’t know, at least not yet.

              Assuming the object causing the 22% event is more or less circular and crossed right over the star, I get the velocity to be about 10.5 km which for that star puts it at 11-12 AU. (Also assuming I didn’t make a math error.) Saturn in our solar system is about 9.5 AU.

              The missing IR flux (WTF) is not consistent with this distance for a natural object, or even a disk.

              “How much material would that take?”

              A *lot*! The question has been answered for ring worlds and Dyson Spheres. It depends on how thin you can make the material and what you are using. KL has suggested ice as a structural material, but that takes going out 30 AU in our system and 60-65 AU in that system.

              I suspect (if we really are looking at alien megastructures) that they are shorter on materials than they are of energy.

            • FE have you been giving your Abilify to Keith again? You know what happens when he takes that and has a espresso!

    • doomphd – Honolulu – I really hold a doctor of philosophy (phd) in geological sciences and study pretty doomy topics like giant landslides, volcanic eruptions and megatsunamis.
      doomphd says:

      i can’t spell kat, especially early in the morning before coffee. i just sound it out, like my ancestors, oll korrect?

  29. Yoshua says:

    Saudi Arabia is producing 10 million barrels per day. At the energy halfway point the energy of 5 Mbpd is needed to run Saudi Arabia. The other 5 Mbpd is the net energy delivered to run the global economy.

    • DJ says:

      That should be quite easy to verify..?

      (Then proceed with a long discussion whether SA is efficiently run.)

      • Artleads says:

        DJ,

        You speak about real estate bubbles more than most here. I wondered if the following affects your views on preventing or not the rupture of the RE bubble? ,

        https://www.democracynow.org/2016/12/2/bankers_behind_great_foreclosure_machine_join

        • DJ says:

          I dont have any opinion on US RE, almost not on Swedens RE bubble.

          I am not even sure there is a RE bubble, maybe just a debt bubble. New RE costs as ridiculously much without anyone making large profits, maybe indicating we can’t afford living like this?

          Private debts increases steadily 7-8% per year. Since debts are about 2x income we live about 15% above our means. If RE values stops increasing we will have to stop increasing debts.

          • Or, if banks and other creditors collapse with overburdened debtors being unable to pay back their mortgages in full and on schedule, the availability of mortgages declines to zero and the real estate values fall precipitously. How high would real estate values be, and how much growth would there be in value of real estate, without the abundance of cheap and easy mortgage credit? Yes, everybody needs a home, but only people who can afford (or who can convince lenders that they can afford) to buy homes will do so. If mortgages are no longer available, demand plummets, and so do residential real estate values.

            • DJ says:

              In my country close to no one will have problem paying interests (less than 1.5% rate).

              But at some point we will not be allowed to take out more debt and then prices will fall, helped by demographics.

              If you don’t sell your home for more than your debt you will have trouble moving because you have to put 15% down, and renting barely exists.

              So, what will happen IMO is that you get stuck where you live and cut down on consumtion. Couples who want to split up will stay together unless one of them has extra money.

              Some will be hit by unemployment (especially after the “cut down on consumtion”), they can’t make enda meet by staying in place and can’t move to get a new job.

              Politicians will soon realize this does not work (the 15% rule) and change the rule. If banks for some reason does not want to lend up to 100% the government can step in. Or you take the full mortgage from the central bank, like for 30-40 years ago.

      • Yoshua says:

        Our understanding of the world is abstract… the world is not.

        I get your point though. Perhaps SA doesn’t need so many palaces? Perhaps SA can stream line the production some more?

    • while we mock the insanity of the saudi system of needing one third of their oil (currently) to sustain their lifestyle, we maybe ignore the fact that we are all doing the same thing and falling into the same trap
      with most places in the world it’s not so clear cut, but we all exist on the import-export and trade of energy based products

      this can only continue as long as we have a surplus.

      what the saudis are doing is exporting raw energy itself. In the same way, they can only continue as long as they have a surplus.
      Soon they will pass the halfway mark, as demand and availability meet.

      after that demand will accelerate away from availability and the saudi economy will crash into the sand it came from.

      western industrial economies will do the same thing

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      At the energy halfway point the energy of 5 Mbpd is needed to run Saudi Arabia. The other 5 Mbpd is the net energy delivered to run the global economy.

      That is what Peak Oilers believe. It is not true as far as I can see. The statement just gets repeated endlessly. When the financial system collapses, the system breaks, leaving an awfully lot of energy products of many types in the ground.

      Also, our ability to measure true “net energy” is incredibly poor, because it would have to include government energy needs that are met by taxation. No one includes this in their calculations.

      • Greg Machala says:

        While I agree with you that the energy halfway point is not the whole picture (or even peak oil for that matter), I do think it is relevant to our situation. To me (the ETP model, EROEI, increasing complexity, debt etc) are all symptoms of the greater disease of diminishing returns of a dissipative structure. Diminishing returns will manifest itself in many ways, volatility, job loss, decreasing EROEI and such. While no model gets the whole picture, or can be used to predict timing of collapse, I think it is important to the greater understanding of what is happening that we have these theories out there so us ordinary lay-persons can better understand the situation. It is networked and very complex. So, to me, having a more simplified view is helpful.

      • Yoshua says:

        I’m just the monkey trying to build a bridge between you and the Hill’s.

        Saudi Arabia is a thermodynamic system and so is the global economy.

      • Volvo740...
        Volvo740 says:

        When I first learned about Peak Oil, I thought (and experienced when I tried to explain ‘the problems’ to others) that these were the true ‘doomers’. Now we have Peak Oilers being the optimists, pushing the best possible case. I.e. the symmetrical curve.

        To be a true doomer today, you probably have to subscribe to faster collapse. Seneca cliff at a minimum. Actually to be really hard core you may also subscribe to Guy McPherson and Sam Carana (pen name), and a 10 deg rise in temp in 10 years. I actually haven’t seen anything disputing their analysis – so I’m in that camp – until their stance is dis-proven – and that will probably become clear in 5-6 years.

        Instadoom will probably not become dis-proven in the next few years as it appears to be a continuous threat until it happens – or not.

        Do you agree with me Gail?

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          I think that the slow collapse theory is kind of disappearing. The radio shows I am being asked to talk on are more and more “way out there.” I know I did one talk last week, and I am scheduled to be on one at 9:00pm on Wednesday of this week. This week is Practical Preppers, wanting to know how to get ready for a fast collapse, or something like that. I am confused about a link relating to this. This is one related link: http://www.practicaltactical4you.com/practical-prepping-period-launches-on-the-authors-on-the-air-global-radio-network/

          This is a Facebook Page https://www.facebook.com/PracticalPreppingPeriod/

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Can you ask the Practical Preppers to take The Fast Eddy Challenge?

            For those who refuse – for obvious reasons — I have a Fast Eddy Challenge Ultra Lite —- turn off your fridge for a week….

  30. adonis says:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-30/opec-said-to-agree-oil-production-cuts-as-saudis-soften-on-iran more evidence that in reality the elites are lost and have no idea what to do to continue bau everything that is now being done is the last ditch efforts before the barman shouts ‘ that’s it last drinks bars shut’

  31. dolph says:

    I’m basing my opinions not on delusion but what I observe. If anything, those of you who think industry will just shut down are delusional.
    The endgame is in view: industrial capital will deplete all of the remaining resources, financial capital will provide the debt and create money out of thin air when the debts aren’t paid. How long can they do this? All the way down the curve. Decades out into the future, as far as the eye can see. They are in complete charge, there is no opposition, there is nobody who will shut down the machines.
    However where I will agree is that there’s nothing we can do about it. Collapse will happen, we are living through it.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Yes dolph… perpetual motion and all that…

      Be a good dolph and fetch me another cold one would ya….

    • Artleads says:

      “Collapse will happen, we are living through it.”

      Some people don’t see the “we are living through it” reality, and think the present is like heaven compared to some cut-off line that will be like a sudden level 8 earthquake. (And earthquake is not just a metaphor where massive collapse is concerned.)

      But there is lot’s of it happening right now. Food and housing are too expensive now even for the former middle class. And insofar as democracy is a reflection of energy, there’s a huge breakdown of democracy going on right now. One tiny example below:

      https://www.democracynow.org/2016/12/2/bankers_behind_great_foreclosure_machine_join

      So I think an accident, a major earthquake down the San Andreas Fault (or a great many other possibilities) could put a major dent in that continuity you mention.

      But here’s another subject: Let’s say we avoid massive natural or nuclear disruption through prevention or mitigation…somehow, and for some undetermined period…could growing GDP continue through better circulation of your “printed” money? Couldn’t you grow GDP while redistributing money? Or while filling potholes or planting trees? Or through tourism or casinos?

      • dolph says:

        GDP is measured in currency, and therefore all you need is more currency and you have a bigger GDP. GDP is no longer allowed to fall, ever, and even recessions have been outlawed. We have permanent “growth” even as resources and population decline. Everything is now a lie.

        We are entering a permanent depression, and nobody will ever acknowledge or talk about it, except at the peon level, and at this level it’s always the fault of some other race, religion, or the other poor disabled who are on welfare, etc. Nobody ever points to the system or financial capital as the problem. The victory is total.

        This is what luddites, marxists, socialists, environmentalists, etc. of all stripes never understood. Capital plays for keeps, it plays for total control and ownership. Capital is never interested in playing nice. As such, capital will own the decline but will never own up to it, per say. It will shift the blame and costs onto the government, inflation, keeping the working classes killing each other, etc.

        Because we know this, it’s enough for us to stand back in awe and just sort of separate, choose our level of participation.

        • Artleads says:

          “…could growing GDP continue through better circulation of your “printed” money? Couldn’t you grow GDP while redistributing money? Or while filling potholes or planting trees? Or through tourism or casinos?”

          If it’s all the same–always money and “growth” somehow–couldn’t the above approach add value to the economy meanwhile?

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Except that the GDP really needs to be converted to dollars. If you raise the currency, the currency falls lower relative to dollars, so in dollars, it isn’t higher. The US is the only one that theoretically can do that, but it is going the other direction. It is raising the interest rates, so the currency rises higher, relative to other currencies.

      • Greg Machala says:

        There will always be the “official” health indicators of the economy showing everything is solid and wonderful. The reality though will be totally different. We see the false economic indicators already. The disparity between reality and official measures of economic health will become greater and greater.

        I think we are on the verge right now. Any major event: pipeline explosion, earthquake, tsunami, hurricane, disease outbreak or something similar will push reality front and center real quick. Once that faith in the system is lost watch everything fall completely apart.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        We’re not out of GDP – we could fake that to eternity — we are out of cheap to produce oil.

        • Artleads says:

          But couldn’t the economy grow in less oil hungry ways?

          • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
            Gail Tverberg says:

            It did. Economic growth moved to China and other coal producing countries. Countries that were heavy oil users (Europe especially Greece, Japan, US) got left behind. One of the reasons was that manufacturing moved to cheaper parts of the world (using coal or hydroelectric, plus cheaper labor, less enforcement of environmental laws). Growth in oil consumption has lagged growth in total energy consumption for many years.

            • DJ says:

              But now you are showing real GDP?

              Yesterday you admitted nominal GDP could be faked forever.

              So how long before real GDP per capita becomes a problem? Before christmas? 2022? 2030? When we have covered the sun in solar panels?

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Nominal real fake whatever… it requires energy… it is not possible to reduce the burning off fossil fuels without collapsing the global economy…

              How difficult is that to understand?

            • richardA says:

              Real GDP per capita is a problem today for the USA. It was a problem in 2014 that was sidelined by oil and gas fracking while the oil price was still high. It is at the core of LTG. If it was fixable we would probably know the solution by now.

            • hkeithhenson
              hkeithhenson says:

              “Real GDP per capita is a problem today for the USA.”

              In the stone age, falling resources per capita (mapped into income per capita) or the prospects of same tripped conditional behavior switch. Among other things, it made people seek an irrational leader. Why? Because, weird as it might seem, genes did better in such circumstances. If anyone is really interested, I can send you the analysis or put it up somewhere.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              I would be interested in seeing at least a summary. It might also help explain Trump’s election.

            • hkeithhenson
              hkeithhenson says:

              “It might also help explain Trump’s election.”

              People (in the stone age or today) who are under stress circulate xenophobic memes against neighbors or some internal class. They also find irrational leaders attractive. In the stone age this led up to war with neighbors and win or lose that always solved the population problems.

              BTW, for the people who say we are a long way from starvation and thus not like the stone age, animals, including humans, respond to relative signals.

              “In fact, our genes would have been selected to go to war with the neighbors not when we are weak from starvation, but when we anticipate hard times a-coming. Further, like most psychological responses, this one is almost certainly tripped by relative changes, here in income per capita, (originally game and berries), especially by sharp downturns after a long ramp up (Cialdini 1984, p 249, quoting J. C. Davies). ”

              In any case, it seems that our evolution has a rational reason (for genes) to go for irrational leaders when under stress. The current president elect is not the first time.

            • Stefeun says:

              I see rationality as a privilege brought by high energy input.
              When the energy input lowers, immediate survival behaviour starts to prevail (again).

              In parallel (same process, in fact), high energy inputs allow for large structures, but when they decrease, it’s a contraction phase in which boundaries tend to tighten and become less permeable, everything shrinks.
              This happens at all levels simultaneously. Rise of protectionism is but one of the symptoms.

              Many issues come from the fact that people didn’t realize (yet) that we have already switched from expansion to contraction. Old recipees become totally ineffective, or even worsen the situation.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              Good points!

            • Stefeun says:

              Keith,
              I forgot my first intention. My comment above was triggered by the fact you talked about rationality for genes.

              I doubt “rationality” is the proper term, but I concede this “contraction syndrome” may happen also at different levels of organization (society, groups, individuals, genes). I mean, under stress, the upper levels go away first.

            • richardA says:

              @hkeithhenson – the bit about falling GDP per capita in the stone age – I’m interested?

            • hkeithhenson
              hkeithhenson says:

              “I’m interested?”

              War as population control

              Or what happened to the young women.

              Regardless of how you or I feel about war, it accomplishes the goal of getting the population back in line with the resources. At least it did back in the Stone Age. Today wars can destroy the
              infrastructure that allows large populations to exist.

              Put a population under stress and you will get similar behavior, often using religious memes to justify the behavior. Many examples, especially if you count communism as a religion or in the same memetic class.

              The main concerns of humans have always been trying to raise their families, that is, have children and live long enough to see them having their own families and children. However, raising families successfully usually resulted in population growth. On a relatively constant resource base, this eventually resulted in the population exceeding the capacity of the resource base to provide for them. So eventually, this utterly reasonable behavior sowed the seeds of a resource crisis and humans are (I claim) wired up to respond to a resource crisis by going to
              war. In the Stone Age, war was always effective in getting the population back in line with the resources, so people could go back to the business of raising children and set up the conditions for war again. (Where have all the flowers gone? Sigh.)

              All behavior, human and otherwise, is in the service of the genes. Darwin made the case for physical characteristics. Over the last 25 years Darwin’s work been extended to behavior. It’s rather obvious that ducks that fly the wrong way are not going to leave many offspring.

              If you run through the math, there are conditions where war is the better choice for genes. If it were not, our traits for war would never have evolved. (Obviously.)

              Simple model, drought situation where half of two bands will die of starvation, or they can fight. All the loser adults are killed*. For similar sized bands, consider the winner random. For the
              adults, there is no advantage to going to war. However, the human propensity to take the young women of the losers as wives or extra wives limits the downside from the gene’s viewpoint. Thus, war is better, _substantially_ better, for genes than the alternative in some circumstances. This leads to several depressing consequences due to individuals and their genes being in conflict.

              Fighting, when there is no need to fight, is (from the gene’s viewpoint) highly punishing, i.e., human genes for behaviors have been selected to fight under some conditions and selected not to fight under other conditions. Moreover, because the consequences are so dire, the mechanism
              to detect when it is to the gene’s advantage to fight has also been under intense selection.

              It is not a pretty picture connecting peacefully raising children with wars. Unfortunately, that’s the way of nature.

              This model does let us predict that China will not start wars as long as their income per capita prospects are looking good. That doesn’t mean they will not fight a war because they can be attacked.

              There are lots of other obvious consequences for this model and we could calibrate it from historical events.

              How does getting yourself killed help the reproductive success of your genes? It depends on the alternatives. And you absolutely must understand inclusive fitness for the rest of this to make any
              sense.

              http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inclusive_fitness#Hamilton.27s_equation,
              http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kin_selection

              “Thus a gene causing altruistic behavior towards brothers and sisters will be selected only if the behavior and the circumstances are generally such that the gain is more than twice the loss; for half-brothers it must be more than four times the loss; and so on. To put the matter more vividly, an animal acting on this principle would sacrifice its life if it could thereby save more than two brothers, but not for less. Some similar illustrations were given by Haldane (1955).”

              http://74.125.155.132/search?q=cache:xM5Wr3LV_RIJ:www.montana.edu/~wwwbi/staff/creel/bio405/hamilton%25201963.pdf+Haldane+%22more+than+two+brothers%22&cd=3&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a

              My view of religions is that they are xenophobic memes. The human trait to host and be influence by these memes is a variable depending on the economic outlook. It is modulated up when the economic outlook is bleak (effectively a behavioral switch when the gain in a group goes over one). Today it would be measured in income per capita, in the stone age it was the ability of the
              ecosystem (game and berries) to feed the population.

              In the Stone Age such memes synchronized a tribe’s warriors for an attempt to kill neighbors for resources. What we need to show is that going to war, for all its costs, is an evolutionary stable
              strategy (EES) in some recurring situations.

              Of course “war” can range from raids that kill a few of the other tribe (and perhaps steal some of their women) to total defeat such as is described the Book of Numbers, Chapter 31

              Simple model assumptions. Humans trip into war mode (after a delay for xenophobic memes to build up) at some subjective probability that hard times a-coming will starve them. This ranges from zero of them dying (being wrong) to the whole tribe starving. Just to put a number on it, say the average event will cost the tribe half its members (and gene copies) if they do nothing. This is the case we have to beat by going to war.

              For the model I am going to say that on average the men who went off to a stone age war had 6 children (since that’s about the number needed for a couple to raise two to adulthood in hunter gatherer societies) and one brother plus enough cousins to make up the equal of another brother (sisters were traded away for unrelated wives). That’s 8×1/2 (Hamilton’s relatedness factor).

              The cost of raids is relatively low, but so are the rewards. The gene selection model will assume the extreme (once in a lifetime) case–which probably caused most of the selection. For this simple model we will say that a tribe that goes to war loses none of the men’s genes if it wins and all of the men’s genes if it loses, plus the genes of all the male children but none of the female children who are taken as booty. The additional resources captured removes the threat of starvation for the winners even though they incorporate the losing tribe’s young females.

              Genes of winners come out as 4, losers at 1.5 (three female children x 1/2). Since the chance of winning is 50%, you average the numbers, giving 2.75. That’s the average gene survival for making a choice to go to war with a 50% chance of winning.

              Genes numbers for not going to war at a 50% starvation rate come out at 2.

              2.75/2 is 1.375, a 37% advantage. In per generation evolutionary terms that’s a *big* number (intense selection). Of course, going to war when the tribe didn’t face starvation was 4/2.75 or a
              disadvantage of about 45% so the selection is even stronger for not going to war when you didn’t see bad times a-coming. The mental detector for making an accurate forecast was also under intense selection since the genetic consequences of making a wrong decision were so serious.

              The model indicates that a positive future outlook, i.e., good economic prospects for you and your children will turn off the switch to pass around and be strongly influenced by religious (xenophobic) memes. The current world situation, especially the energy situation, leads me to predict that religions (and wars or related social disruptions) will be a major problem in the coming decades unless we solve the energy problem. Of course since the detector is tripped on per capita, low or negative population growth helps a great deal. To keep humans out of going to war, the change in income/population must be positive or at least not negative for all segments of the population.

              [This is somewhat draft because it is so unpleasant to think about that I am reluctant to finish and publish it. ]

              *
              Book of Numbers, from The Holy Bible, King James version Chapter 31

              7: They warred against Mid’ian, as the LORD commanded Moses, and slew every male.

              8: They slew the kings of Mid’ian with the rest of their slain, Evi, Rekem, Zur, Hur, and Reba, the five kings of Mid’ian; and they also slew Balaam the son of Be’or with the sword.

              9: And the people of Israel took captive the women of Mid’ian and their little ones; and they took as booty all their cattle, their flocks, and all their goods.

              10: All their cities in the places where they dwelt, and all their encampments, they burned with fire,

              11: and took all the spoil and all the booty, both of man and of beast.

              12: Then they brought the captives and the booty and the spoil to Moses, and to Elea’zar the priest, and to the congregation of the people of Israel, at the camp on the plains of Moab by the Jordan at Jericho.

              13: Moses, and Elea’zar the priest, and all the leaders of the congregation, went forth to meet them outside the camp.

              14: And Moses was angry with the officers of the army, the commanders of thousands and the commanders of hundreds, who had come from service in the war.

              15: Moses said to them, “Have you let all the women live?

              16: Behold, these caused the people of Israel, by the counsel of Balaam, to act treacherously against the LORD in the matter of Pe’or, and so the plague came among the congregation of the LORD.

              17: Now therefore, kill every male among the little ones, and kill every woman who has known man by lying with him.

              18: But all the young girls who have not known man by lying with him, keep alive for yourselves.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              Interesting! The direness of the situation is one of the reasons I have not worked very hard on putting my findings into book form. People can figure out what we are up against, but not as easily as in book form.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              This did happen in the stone age, as population rose in an area, and the amount of food that could be gathered did not. Larger sized hunter-gatherer tribes had an advantage, because they could specialize more, and because of this gain an advantage over smaller H-G tribes. Eventually, “population push” seems to have led to the need for agriculture. All of these changes are examples of greater complexity being added. Some folks I know at the Univ. of New Mexico did research on this issue.

            • hkeithhenson
              hkeithhenson says:

              “as population rose in an area, and the amount of food that could be gathered did not”

              For a given group, the area was limited by how far the people could walk to collect food or hunt.

              “Larger sized hunter-gatherer tribes had an advantage”

              For a given area and its associated productivity, there was a limit on how big a tribe could grow before the hassle of collecting food forced it to split. This was countered by the advantage of having a more warrior age men for both attacking and defending. This may explain the widespread female infanticide we see among various cultures.

              “led to the need for agriculture.”

              How humans got into agriculture is still a mystery, but they did it several times around the world.

              “Some folks I know at the Univ. of New Mexico”

              Would that include https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_A._LeBlanc ?

              It’s also worth keeping in mind that the ecological productivity of an area varies from year to year, from plenty to eat to starvation.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              My statement regarding larger sized tribes assumed that tribes with greater population would be able to dominate bigger areas.

              See for example https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/hunter-gatherers-show-human-populations-are-hardwired-for-density/

              This is based on http://www.pnas.org/content/104/11/4765.full

              James H. Brown, now retired from the University of New Mexico, is one of the authors of the paper cited. Brown was (and probably very much still is) associated with the “Santa Fe Institute.”

              This is a working paper I ran across on a Google Search. It is not directly related, but shows the types of research used.
              http://samoa.santafe.edu/media/workingpapers/14-09-034.pdf

              There is recent research on population growth being a problem for hunter gatherers. For example, see https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4743830/

              Agriculture clearly provides a higher carrying capacity, so this is a likely reason for the adoption of agriculture in many areas.

            • Stefeun says:

              Gail,
              I read only the SA blog so far. From the article:

              Fig. 1 Hunter-gatherer home ranges scale to the three-fourths power. Above are representations of three populations and the size of their home range according to this relationship.

              Exponent 0,75 made me think of the Kleiber’s law, “named after Max Kleiber’s biological work in the early 1930s, is the observation that, for the vast majority of animals, an animal’s metabolic rate scales to the ¾ power of the animal’s mass.
              https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kleiber%27s_law

              It means that a population would behave as a single organism, the mass being represented by the number of individuals, and the metabolism by the surface that provides the food energy input.
              Afaik, we don’t know exactly why this exponent is 3/4, but it’s quite stunning to find it here again.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              Thanks for the observation. All of these things are very strange. I will make note of this connection–it is important.

              We think we have more control over how our economy works than we really do. The flows of energy have more control over earth’s systems than we understand that they do.

            • DJ says:

              Living standard in US today a problem? 6B people would disagree.

              A difference between the West today and the stone age is then slightly shrinking resources meant death, today we have a long way until life is threathened.

            • Ert says:

              @DJ

              Living standard in US today a problem? 6B people would disagree.

              Me, too!

              So many obese people indicate that there are enough calories… much enough….

            • richardA says:

              Ghengis Kahn – ” Temujin avenged his father’s murder by decimating the Tatar army, and ordered the killing of every Tatar male who was more than approximately 3 feet tall (taller than the linchpin, or axle pin, of a wagon wheel).”
              Decimation is used incorrectly here.
              That’s an interesting contrast to the effects of famine. Famine tends to kill off the younger children. And I’d add that communities with few children are less likely to go to war – which may tend to contradict some of the numbers you suggested earlier.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              This is for me?

              If so – my numbers re famine are 7.4+ billion — all women – all girls – all men – all boys — all infants — just about everyone starves.

              A few will hang on for a time in places like the Amazon and Irian Jaya… people who already live without BAU..

              The fuel ponds will finish them.

            • DJ says:

              A 75 kg human contains about 50 kkcal and will feed a 75 kg human for about 25 days of not to intensive labour.

              If everyone would turn caninblal at the same time population would half about every month (allowing some extra calories from parsley and onions…)

              Month 0: 7.4B
              Month 1: 3.7B

              In only 6 months we would be down to very manageable 100M.

              But don’t eat the Spent Fuel Pond Technicians!

            • DJ says:

              100 persons per 31.6 sq km … meeting strangers is not a daily thing.

  32. Christian says:

    “A training document imagining the military’s response to a zombie apocalypse was actually released by the Pentagon in May 2014. Title CONOP 8888, the scenario was used by US Strategic Command as a teaching tool, with STRATCOM explaining that it ‘elected to use a completely impossible scenario that could never be mistaken as a real plan’”

    CONOP 888, that’s it, but I don’t have it

    https://www.rt.com/usa/349599-pentagon-zombie-apocalypse-nurses/

  33. Artleads says:

    Discussing what older whites stand to gain from Millennials and young non whites.

    http://www.planetizen.com/node/89997/white-voters-and-polarization-can-we-span-racial-divide-emphasizing-shared-interests

    “When the Baby Boomers themselves entered the working ages they had only a small-sized generation of seniors to support on their shoulders. All that reverses once the Baby Boomers become the seniors. That places far greater weight on the younger generation than we have seen in the past, whether they are operating as individual workers and consumers in the private market or via their role as principal funders of government programs through tax payments. Either way, success for the older generation in the future will require the Millennials and those that follow to carry out their adult responsibilities with much greater productivity than preceding generations. The generational size imbalance creates a true all-hands-on-deck emergency.”

    • Jeremy says:

      Ahhh, face it like Uncle Billy here in this old classic

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Iz_2kj-VKCs

      There will plenty of opportunities for those willing to apply themselves

    • Froggman says:

      That population bulge has created some really weird distortions in the work force. There’s such a thick layer of boomers occupying the upper levels of organizations right now, the remaining generations are for the most part shut out of power positions.

      For example, in my organization I am the youngest person in my level of position, what you might consider middle/upper management- heading an operational unit but not a part of the core group guiding the organization. I’m basically one level down. I’m now in my late 30s, and I’m “the kid.” I spend a lot of time in rooms with people 25 years older than me. And if I was interested in “advancement”, I feel like I would need to at least triple the amount of white in my beard, and work some more on my forehead wrinkles.

      I can’t imagine that when the Boomers were in their 30s it was the same experience. They were “in their prime” and already the doors to the halls of power were open for them. And they’ve been sitting in those positions for decades now.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        I am a Boomer, and the situation was incredibly different. I could afford a two-bedroom condominium in Chicago with a small view of Lake Michigan and an Astor Street address when I was less than 30 years old. Not much later, I had an office with a view of Lake Michigan.

      • InAlaska says:

        Because the economic situation is so much more uncertain, and because Boomers had children much later in many cases, it is very likely that those Boomers are likely to stay working in those high level positions for a long time yet, blocking younger generations from moving up. They still haven’t all secured their retirement or paid off college debt for their children.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This is why actuaries are always advocates for keeping population high enough, so the young people can pay for the old. Actuaries only have the story half-right. They didn’t understand that besides children, the system would also needs energy products for those young people to use.

      Because the size (and wealth) of the younger generation is unknown, government pension plans are written in such a way that the amounts they pay can be reduced, to match funds actually available. The lack of guaranteed payments means that governments don’t need to show future pension amounts as a “debt” either. I consider them to be a “quasi-debt.” But people plan their lives, as if the programs will be available at their current levels.

  34. adonis says:

    http://planetponzi.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/anatomy_of_a_ponzi_scheme.jpg this chart is a good analogy of why the worlds’ ponzi scheme will collapse into nothing

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Perhaps we need to adapt the graphic to show debtors, trying to hide the impact of higher energy extraction costs, instead of general “investors”.

  35. Christian says:

    I recently saw a good movie on post-collapse

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_of_the_Wolf

    It has what I’d call an intelligent ending

  36. adonis says:

    all the charts are in the archives of ofw once you have read the entire archive of ofw and done your own additional research which would amount to at least a couple of thousand hours of research you may finally get it

  37. Artleads says:

    Someone posted all of this on another blog.

    “Sometimes a cartoon certainly tells some of the truth!
    Chinese energy companies have been starting two coal power projects a week despite a recent government policy designed to tackle the country’s overcapacity crisis, according to a new Greenpeace analysis.

    “China currently has over 900,000MW of coal-fired capacity, the equivalent of about 1,300 large coal-fired units.

    But, due to the country’s slowing power demand growth and rapid expansion of clean energy, demand for power generated from coal has been falling since 2013, rendering roughly 200,000-300,000MW of capacity redundant at 2015 demand levels.

    Yet China has another 200,000MW of coal-fired capacity under construction, and a new Greenpeace analysis has identified a further 150,000MW of projects potentially able to enter construction — despite recent suspensions.

    http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/2016/07/13/china-keeps-building-coal-plants-despite-new-overcapacity-policy/

    • Christian says:

      Well, if they build ghost cities they can also build ghost coal plants. It’s perhaps even a logical outcome

      • Stefeun says:

        And produce shadow-electricity.
        Or do they plan to enlighten the whole country?

        • Interguru says:

          They can ( and do ) mine bitcoins with their excess capacity,

          Mr. Ng, 36, said he had become an expert in finding cheap energy, often in places where a coal plant or hydroelectric dam was built to support some industrial project that never happened. The Bitcoin mining machines in his facilities use about 38 megawatts of electricity, he said, enough to power a small city.

          http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/03/business/dealbook/bitcoin-china.html

          • Stefeun says:

            Burning energy to create money (which is a call for more energy use)… Sounds crazy..
            I don’t know how the “value”, or the exchange rate of the bitcoin is determined, but I expect it to lose it all when classic currencies become worthless. Only waste.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Local government officials can see that without electricity, they cannot do much. From what I understand of Chinese politics, central government officials give GDP goals to local government officials, and pay those officials based on meeting those GDP goals. (At least, this is how it used to work.) Local officials have a lot of flexibility in what they can do. Historically, this involved the ability to obtain almost as much debt as they wanted, from sources that were not tracked at all closely by the central government. Government officials figured out that adding energy production capacity was key to meeting GDP goals. (This may not be too different from Saudi Arabia wanting to pump ever more oil, regardless of price.) I understand that coal is taxed significantly in China. This may also lead to a parallel situation to oil–without the taxes, its extraction and use looks profitable, but with the taxes, it does not. So if there are loopholes, I can understand why/how government officials might try to use them.

  38. adonis says:

    thanks for that link fast eddie after a quick browse the fast eddie scenario for collapse certainly will be happening anyone who has not realised this just needs more time eventually they’lle get it

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Some will never get it….

      • Kurt says:

        Blah, blah, blah.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          I understand that Idiocracy 2 is about to start filming… I’ll make a few calls and get you a spot as an extra….

          • Kurt says:

            Name calling? That’s the best you can do? Please give me a chart or graph or some kind of nonsense. Could you take some time off as chief of the delusistan police and read about ode’s fractals, and chaos theory and then pop off. Or, you could just make a bet on when your somewhat bizarre concept of bau grinds to a halt and your nonsensical version of collspse occurs.

            • If the shoe fits you should probably wear it.
              Why would anyone want to bet on when BAU collapses?The only thing that is certain is that it will and there is no guarantee humans will survive it. It’s not just a civilization that will go down, it may be entire ecosystems that support human life.
              What is coming down the pipeline is unprecedented in human history.

  39. adonis says:

    theirs a field of possibilities of how this could all play out the one most likely is the fast eddie scenario we all know how that plays out, then theirs the elites’ masterplan scenario the world goes full bore cashless society and perpetual wars provide all the growth to keep bau solvent, in this scenario we see the middle class all but disappear as a massive wealth transfer occurrs from developed high eroi countries to developing low eroi countries and the world would morph into an orwellian big brother communist type of system

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I have very few – if any original thoughts….

      This is what I base my this – see page 56 :

      http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Trade_Off_Korowicz.pdf

      • Kurt says:

        It’s well written, but ignores the unquantifiable ability of humans to adapt. Again, very easy to make predictions about a fixed linear model. An entirely different thing to make predictions about a complex chaotic system. It’s just a best guess scenario at this point. My guess is summer of 2020. What is FE’s guess? Gail’s guess? Waiting… For over a year… They won’t bet money on it so its all just chatter. I’m willing to put some cold hard cash down. Until then, we will all have to suffer through more bau comments with delusistan put downs. Make a bet or leave FE!

        • Christian says:

          Korowicz’s stuff is well written and probably right in the core conclusion. He nevertheless doesn’t include CB’s tricks and he also perhaps underestimates bankers/planners imagination

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          I think Interguru is right:

          Stein’s Law: ” Things that can’t go on forever eventually stop”

          Two lemmas ( mine — Interguru’s Lemmas )
          1) They go on a lot longer than you think they can.
          2) They stop suddenly without warning. Even those who see it coming have no idea when.

          But it is hard to see that things can continue along the current route very long. The Brexit vote, and Trump’s election, are signs we are headed in a different direction than before.

  40. thestingingnettlereport
    Stinging Nettle says:

    Your imagination is rich…

    • Kurt says:

      Gosh, it sure makes sense to me. If you just multiply by 5 and carry the 2 it all works out. I even have a chart with a graph on it somewhere…

  41. dolph says:

    I know you guys may have a hard time accepting it, but look at the evidence for yourself, what is actually happening versus what you thought would happen.
    The world actually doesn’t need too much energy. What it needs is infinite currency to keep circulating, to keep the peasants working, and keep the wealth flowing towards the top to keep the big capitalists satisfied.
    We actually have created the perpetual motion machine, believe it or not. It’s just that the motion doesn’t have to actually occur at a specified rate. It can slow down, and still function.
    LIke I said, our present system will last all the way until the late 2030s, which is another 20+ years. It will then morph into a sort of global recycling/srap capitalism, but capitalism nonetheless with most of the crucial machines functioning, and this will probably last another 50 years, to give the overall capital system a life of around 600 years (1500 to 2100) and big industry a life of around 200 years (1800 to 2100). That’s what I imagine.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      This is Peak DelusiSTAN.

    • MG says:

      “Keep the peasants working”. What peasants? We are past the agricultural and industrial era in many parts of the world. Even past the service economy, in the era when electronics and robots providing the large part of the productivity, with low wages of non-elite workers and declining populations…

    • Greg Machala says:

      “It will then morph into a sort of global recycling/srap capitalism, but capitalism nonetheless with most of the crucial machines functioning” – Therein lies the problem. The crucial machines all require the current system to function. Lets think about some crucial machines. Computing machines (for banking and financial services). The banking and financial services machine (to finance resource mining operations). The resource mining machines (for producing the energy and raw materials the economy needs). The agribusiness machine (to feed the consumers and workers). The human machine (to use the resources and machines to pay back debt with interest). It seems (to me at least) to be interconnected. So much of the machines are simply background noise for most folks. It is easy to take something like energy for granted. For instance, how many folks sat around the Thanksgiving dinner table and gave thanks for the energy and resources that allowed them to congregate at the table? Or, gave thanks to the feed lots that supplied the Turkeys?

        • doomphd – Honolulu – I really hold a doctor of philosophy (phd) in geological sciences and study pretty doomy topics like giant landslides, volcanic eruptions and megatsunamis.
          doomphd says:

          thiose forceps are going to get hot. do that on a DC battery and they will glow red and then melt. my oldest son did that with a wrench. hard on the battery.

          looks like 120V AC.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Good points!

    • Volvo740...
      Volvo740 says:

      Even BP says oil will last 40 years. How can there be ‘big industry’ in 200? 200 is a crazy time frame to say anything about. What about that 6m sea level rise that we surely will have by then. No coastal cities… Could be 6 deg C warmer by then also.

Comments are closed.