## How the Economy Works as It Reaches Energy Limits — An Introduction for Actuaries and Others

Why have long-term interest rates generally fallen since 1981? Why have asset prices risen? Can these trends be expected to continue? The standard evaluation approach by actuaries and economists seems to be to look at past patterns and assume that they will be repeated.

The catch is that energy consumption growth plays a hugely important role in GDP growth. It also plays an important role in interest rates that businesses and governments can afford to pay. Energy consumption growth has been slowing; it is hard to see how growth in energy consumption can ramp back up materially in the future.

Slowing growth in energy consumption puts the world on track for a future like the 1930s, or even worse. It is hard to see how GDP growth, interest rates, and inflation rates can ramp up in the future. More likely, asset price bubbles will pop, leading to significant financial distress. Derivatives may be affected by rapid changes in prices and currency relativities, as asset bubbles pop.

The article that follows is a partial write-up of a long talk I gave to a group of life and annuity actuaries. (I am a casualty actuary myself, which is a slightly different specialty.) A PDF of my presentation can be found at this link: Reaching Limits of a Finite World

Slide 1

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Slide 4

After the audience had a chance to answer this question (mostly with yes), I gave my answer: “Yes, indeed, it is possible to build a model that gives misleading results, and not understand the situation.” For example, a flat map works as a perfectly adequate model in some situations. But when longer distances are involved, a globe is needed. A two-dimensional model works for some purposes, but not for others.

Slide 5

The model in Slide 5 is the familiar Supply and Demand model used by economists. According to the model, if Demand increases from D1 to D2, then price will increase from P1 to P2. The rising price, in turn, will allow the quantity produced to rise from Q1 to Q2, based on the upward sloping supply curve S. This model is true in some cases, but it is not always true.

Supply and Demand Are Both Affected by Reaching Limits

As the economy approaches energy limits, lack of sufficient growth in energy consumption affects both Supply and Demand. Diminishing returns leads to high costs on the Supply side. Because of this, the cost of producing oil and other energy products tends to rise.

At the same time, businesses find that they cannot pass on these higher costs to their consumers because the wages of consumers don’t rise with rising energy costs. Diminishing returns acts like growing inefficiency; it takes more materials, more labor, more tax dollars, and more debt to produce the world’s overall mix of energy products, leaving a smaller amount of resources for producing end products (such as homes, cars, and bicycles) that consumers really want.

Persistent high energy costs lead businesses to try to find workarounds to reduce total costs. A major target for cost reduction is labor costs. If some labor costs can be replaced by lower-paid labor from overseas, or by robots, the company can perhaps make a reasonable profit, even with higher prices for oil and other energy products. The catch is new lower-cost labor force does not create as much Demand for goods and services as was available before jobs were replaced by robots or sent overseas. Workers in China and India will buy some goods and services, but the quantity will likely be lower than if the jobs remained in the US, Europe, and Japan.

We end up with a tug-of-war between the high prices that the producers of energy products need and the low prices that the many low-wage workers around the world can afford. Energy products are used in making pretty much everything, including food, homes, cars, and computers. As young people need to live with their parents longer, and as demand moves to lower-waged countries overseas, the lack of buying power tends to pull energy prices down below the cost of production. Energy prices below the cost of production are just as much a product of reaching energy limits as high energy prices!

Peak Oil is Another Two-Dimensional Model

Before we go on, I should probably offer some more explanation. Some of you may have thought that I would be talking about the Peak Oil story today. I consider the Peak Oil story to be another two-dimensional model. It gives some insights, but it really does not give a good explanation of what can be expected as we go ahead. Its emphases on oil and on high prices are both wrong, in my opinion.

Geologists coming up with the Peak Oil model relied on the incorrect Supply and Demand model of economists. They did not understand that both Demand and Supply are affected, as energy limits approach. They also never considered what the energy needs of the economy really are–total energy consumption needs to grow, if enough goods and services are to be produced for the growing world population. Rising energy consumption is also needed to keep commodity prices high enough to keep production from collapsing from low prices, due to inadequate Demand.

Many of you have heard the saying, “As you sow [seeds], so shall you reap.” In other words, the effort you put in can be expected to correspond to the end product that is produced. This saying is somewhat true if an economy uses only human labor to produce goods and services. For example, if a person digs a ditch for five hours, the result will correspond to effort put in. Increasing the hours of digging to six can perhaps add 20% to the length of ditch that can be dug. (There is the detail that it even takes energy products to make a shovel. Perhaps the example should be digging a ditch with a stick, and thus using only human labor!)

If a person really wants to dig a ditch quickly, he needs ditch-digging equipment and diesel fuel to operate the equipment. The ditch-digging equipment is made with energy products; it also uses energy products while it is operated. If energy consumption per capita is rising, then businesses, on average, can use increasing amounts of energy to increasingly leverage the labor of the workers they hire. This seems to be what leads to productivity growth.

This is why I talk so much about energy consumption per capita, and the importance of falling prices of energy services (including efficiency gains) to encourage the growth in energy consumption. One example of energy services (whose costs need to fall) would be the cost of heating a 1,000 square meter home (including efficiency gains in furnaces and insulation). Another example would be the cost of transporting 100 kilograms of grain 100 kilometers.

Slide 6

In fact, over time, the cost of energy services has been falling. The fall in costs more than offset the growing quantity of energy consumed. Thus, the cost of energy services is becoming a smaller and smaller share of world GDP. This falling share of energy products as a percentage of the world GDP seems to be necessary, if the remainder of the world economy is to grow. If the cost of energy products starts to rise, it will tend to crowd out some of the discretionary goods and services that the world economy has been able to add, as the world economy has grown.

Higher Energy Prices Are Damaging to the Economy; Lower Energy Prices Encourage GDP Growth

Energy needs to be consumed by the system, whether workers dig ditches with shovels or with ditch-digging equipment. If energy is very expensive, it is likely that all that employers can afford is the equivalent of shovels for workers to work with. If energy becomes less expensive to use (including efficiency gains), then it becomes possible to scale up the use of tools using energy, and the economy can expand. As a result, workers can become more efficient, businesses can make more profits, and the government can collect more taxes. The falling price of energy services seem to be the major force underlying GDP growth.

Conversely, if oil consumption growth is constricted by a spike in oil prices, we know (based on the work of Economist James Hamilton) that the US economy tends to go into recession. Higher prices make it difficult for both businesses and consumers to buy energy products. Falling energy consumption is damaging to the economy, because the creation of goods and services depends on the use of energy products.

High Correlation Between World GDP and Energy Consumption

Slide 7

Energy consumption is not mentioned at all on the economists’ supply and demand model (Slide 5), but it is clear that energy consumption is highly correlated with economic growth. There is a reason for this: it takes energy products to make both goods and services. It even takes energy to heat and light an office for workers, and to make and power computers.

Economists tend to miss the connection between energy and the economy because they tend to perform their analyses on an individual country basis. The connection between GDP growth and energy growth is less clear on a country-by-country basis because individual countries can reduce their energy consumption by shifting some of their manufacturing to less developed countries, confusing the analysis. The International Energy Agency has concluded that higher oil prices can be expected to have an adverse impact on the world economy as a whole.

The Economy Is a Self-Organized System Operated by Energy

Slide 8

The reason for the strange behavior of energy prices near limits is because the system is very interconnected. It is a self-organized system that gradually changes over time. New customers are added over time. These customers are often also wage-earners. They decide what to buy based on their own wages, and based on other considerations, such as the prices of competing products and whether inexpensive financing is available.

Businesses make decisions based on what they think customers might want. They also consider products offered by competitors. Governments play a role as well, both in regulation and taxation.

Physics indirectly helps determine prices, wages, and profits, because the economy uses energy to make goods and services. If a rapidly growing amount of cheap energy is available, it becomes easy for businesses to make a profit and raise wages. As businesses grow, economies of scale tend to increase profits. Higher energy prices tend to reverse these beneficial effects.

Oil Prices Are Now Too Low for Many Oil Producers

Slide 9

If you are not familiar with energy price trends, it probably would be worthwhile to take a minute to look at the strange price pattern shown on Slide 9. If you are coming from a financial background, you will probably be familiar with the financial disruptions of 2008, but not the high oil (and other energy) prices of the same period. The steep drop in prices corresponds to the time of major financial distress.

Most United States infrastructure, such as interstate highways, pipelines, and electricity transmission systems, were built in the pre-1970 period, when the inflation-adjusted price of oil was generally less than \$20 per barrel. Thus, in a sense, most of the oil prices we are seeing in recent years on Slide 9 are high, relative to historical costs. The question becomes, “How high a price can the economy withstand?” It becomes very expensive to replace a worn-out pipeline built with \$20 per barrel oil using \$120 per barrel oil.

On Slide 9, prices required by oil exporting countries (such as Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Norway) seem to be well over \$100 per barrel. Such a high price is needed if these countries are to be able to collect enough tax revenue and also have funds for investment in new fields to replace depleting fields.

On the other hand, the economies of the United States, Europe, and Japan do very much better if oil prices are low. They would prefer prices under \$50 per barrel. This is the price mismatch mentioned on Slide 9.

Extended periods of low prices can be expected to lead to two adverse impacts over a period of several years:

1. Falling growth in energy production. Investment in new fields to offset declining production from existing fields is likely to fall. The big drop in oil prices occurred in 2014, and it is now four years later. Many analysts expect growth in oil production to slow in the next few years, because of inadequate investment. Coal, natural gas, and uranium have somewhat similar problems, with falling prices discouraging reinvestment.
2. Collapsing governments of oil exporting nations. Governments of countries that export oil are often very dependent on the high price of oil to collect adequate tax revenue. The central government of the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, after several years of low oil prices. Lack of adequate tax revenue could cause a similar problem today. Venezuela is particularly at risk, but Saudi Arabia and many other countries could follow.

It is ironic that Venezuela reports the highest oil reserves in the world. These reserves can only be extracted if energy prices are much higher than today. This would seem to require higher wages of non-elite workers around the world. If wages were much higher in countries such as India and Nigeria, they could afford goods such as motorcycles and air conditioning, helping push up world demand for energy products.

Slide 10

It is clear that the growth rate of energy consumption simultaneously affects Supply and Demand.

An important point on Slide 10 is the fact that growing debt acts as a helper for energy consumption. It allows consumers to afford goods and services with their monthly wages, and it allows businesses to pay for new tools for workers over the lifetime of those tools. In a sense, debt is the promise of future goods and services made with energy products.

Money is a type of debt. We can print money, but we can’t print cheap-to-produce energy products. Thus, at some point, there can be a mismatch between promises of future goods and services and the quantity of affordable energy products available to create those goods and services. This is part of what is likely to cause debt defaults.

Slide 11

Slide 11 lists some of the things that seem likely as we reach the limits of cheap-to-produce energy supply. I will describe these issues more, later in this talk.

Slide 12

Slide 12 is an outline of the rest of the talk. This post primarily covers Points 1 and 2. Thus, this article relates primarily to GDP growth, interest rates, and asset prices. Slides are shown for Points 3 and 4 as well.

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In recent years, it has become increasingly apparent that the ability of humans (and pre-humans) to cook part of our food supply has had a major impact on our ability to be different from other animals. We could eat a wider variety of foods, and we could get more energy value from those foods. Our bodies could evolve in a very different way. Our brains could become bigger, and our jaws and gut could be smaller.

Slide 15

Even back in hunter-gatherer days, humans were using more energy than similar animals. Now, in the industrial period, we are using 80 times as much energy (=8000/100) as a human-like animal would use, considering the various types of supplemental energy available to us. Some people have described the situation as having 80 energy-slaves for each person. This makes it possible to do tasks, such as farming and digging ditches, in a more efficient way than using sticks as tools.

Slide 16

Besides the usual tools, we have many related ways of using energy, with the goal of eventually providing more goods and services. Energy can be used to organize data on computers. Energy can be used to provide advanced education on topics helpful to growing the economy. If individuals or businesses are paid wages or interest payments, they can use those proceeds to buy energy products, such as a new car, or an overseas vacation. Thus, energy consumption growth affects every part of the economy.

Slide 17

Growing debt is extremely important in growing the world economy. I describe the situation more fully in this article: What has gone wrong with oil prices, debt, and GDP growth?

Technology is what most people focus on, as being the way to move the world economy forward. However, it takes energy products to make the new machines made possible by technology. Without a steady supply of energy products, we cannot maintain existing roads, or the electric grid, or the internet.

Slide 18

Anyone who has purchased a home knows that interest rates are very important in determining what price of home a particular buyer can afford. Here I show a range of monthly payments, for a 30-year, \$300,000 mortgage at various interest rates. It is clear that a person can afford to buy a great deal more house at a low interest rate than a high interest rate. If interest only loans are available, costs are lower still.

Slide 19

Everyone who works with interest rates is aware of this pattern in 10-year US Treasury interest rates. The peak in interest rates was in 1981, and there has been a downward trend most of the time since that date.

Slide 20

The interest rates that regulators can easily adjust are short-term interest rates. When these interest rates are increased, they tend to induce recession. There may be a lag in timing. The increase in short-term interest rates in the 2004 to 2006 period seems to have been instrumental in popping the subprime debt bubble and bringing on the Great Recession of 2007-2009. This is my article relating to this issue: Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis

Slide 21

When energy consumption is growing rapidly, and there are productive projects that can be added (interstate highway system, long distance electric grid, interstate pipelines, first-time telephone service for many people, growing number of trucks and airplanes), then it is possible for the economy to grow rapidly.

In this rapidly growing economy, the economy could easily ramp up long term interest rates without damaging the economy because the underlying growth rate was so high. In a sense, the higher interest rates were analogous to inflation affecting food and energy prices. There was so much growth in demand for goods and services that the economy could afford to pay rising interest rates during the period between World War II and 1981.

Slide 22

The period since 1981 is a period when investments have become much less productive, from a point of view of allowing more goods and services to be produced. Instead, growth is coming from selling more services to each other, and sending more manufacturing to lower-cost parts of the world.

Since 1981, we find ourselves with an increasing amount of old infrastructure that needs to be maintained. Fixing this infrastructure doesn’t really improve productivity. New investments simply keep productivity from falling.

One recent innovation has been the internet. It gives us more information, and it relieves us from the burden of having to use the phone book or go to the library. Thus, it makes us more productive. But in many ways, it is not as important as many earlier inventions, such as the internal combustion engine, the light bulb, and the telephone. There is a temptation to computerize all kinds of data and to expect data mining to solve all our problems. A person wonders what the true cost/benefit is.

Innovations in medicine now allow more 85-year-olds to live to be 86-year-olds and allow more cases of cancer to be cured. But the big changes, brought about by antibiotics and better sanitation, occurred before 1981.

Another growth area has been higher education. The payback is often wages that are barely high enough to live on. How are college graduates who cannot find high-paying jobs going to be able to repay their loans and still get married and have a family?

Admittedly, some investments have been productive. This is especially true when new factories, roads, and ports have been installed in emerging markets. But a large share of recent investments have been aimed at making vehicles more fuel efficient. Or trying to reduce CO2 emissions. These do not really have a payback in lower-cost goods and services.

Interest on debt can only be paid if the economy is truly growing, and thus has a sufficient margin to pay interest with. This seems to be less and less possible outside of emerging markets. I would expect that this is why long-term interest rates are persistently low.

Slide 23

The decline in the ten-year interest rates should make homes more affordable. The long-term decline in shorter-interest rates should make vehicles more affordable. In spite of this boost to the economy, US GDP growth rates have persistently fallen. World GDP growth rates have fallen as well.

Slide 24

There is relatively little storage available for commodities of most types, including oil. As a result, even a small change in demand can lead to a major price shift.

I show in Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis that the peak in oil prices corresponded to the peak in US debt in several categories, including credit cards and home mortgages. Once US debt stopped rising, the demand for oil fell, and prices dropped precipitously.

Quantitative Easing (QE) by the US Federal Reserve began near the end of 2008. It acted to lower interest rates, especially long-term interest rates. These lower interest rates helped get oil prices back up closer to the level required by producers. But once QE stopped in 2014, prices slid back down. As noted earlier, recent oil prices are far too low for most producers. But they do help stimulate the economies of oil importing countries.

Slide 25

If a business adds debt to expand a factory, this may lead to more wages. The chart indicates that growing non-financial debt does not always lead to higher wages. Sometimes it leads to asset bubbles.

Slide 26

Disposable personal income (DPI) is income that individuals receive, including payments such as Social Security and Unemployment Insurance. This amount is netted out for taxes paid. If we divide DPI by population, we get per capita DPI. This amount is not inflation adjusted; it gives us an estimate of how much incomes have been rising, including payments made to compensate for inflation.

Clearly, there have been huge changes in the growth of per capita DPI over time. Prior to 1981, per capita DPI was rising rapidly, as more women joined the workforce, and as companies gave cost of living raises, in an attempt to keep their employees. In several years, per capita DPI was rising at over 10%.

Families with rapidly rising incomes were looking for ways to spend their new-found wealth. This seems to be at least part of the reason for the high inflation rates of this period. Without this rapid run up in DPI, it is hard to see how the oil prices spikes of the 1970s could have occurred.

Now, the economy has slowed greatly. DPI per capita is sputtering along at less than 4% per year. With this low rate of increase in funds available for spending, it seems like the current economy will not be able to support a big spike in oil prices.

Slide 27

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Slide 28

If the economy is not really growing, it is very difficult to pay interest. This is why a person would expect interest rates to roughly follow GDP growth. Back before 1981, GDP growth was significantly greater than 10-year Treasury yields. Since then, 10-year Treasuries have tended to yield a little more than GDP growth (including inflation). Very recently, the pattern seems to have returned to the pre-1981 pattern.

Slide 29

If interest rates are lower, more people can afford to buy a given house, or a piece of land, or shares of stock. The additional demand tends to bid up asset prices.

Slide 30

This should be clear from Slide 29.

Slide 31

Interest rate assumptions often were originally made when interest rates were higher.

Slide 32

Payments to individuals in a particular year act as a way of dividing up goods and services available in that year. If the share of goods and services going to those who are paid interest rises, it will mean fewer goods and services are available for others. History says that it is the non-elite workers that are most likely to be “shorted,” if there are not enough goods and services to go around.

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Even a decline in coal consumption is a problem, if it causes total energy consumption per capita to fall! Wind and solar cannot possibly make up the shortfall. Also, their installed cost is high, if the cost of intermittency workarounds is included.

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My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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### 1,217 Responses to How the Economy Works as It Reaches Energy Limits — An Introduction for Actuaries and Others

1. Baby Doomer says:

We live in frightening times. It’s my belief that “you personally” will most likely die of starvation or conflict between 2020 to 2050.

You will experience a collapse of human civilization, a die-off of humans, a destruction of the ecosystem, a loss of access to mined and drilled resources, and a dark age from which your descendent’s will not reemerge.

Simple really….when the World Economy Collapses everything shuts down…the end… We’re talking about grids down all over the world and 7.5B people dropping like f*** flies in short order. The collapse will be absolutely horrible..There is no collapse or horror movie ever produced that has even come close to imagining what the collapse of BAU might look like. I’m talking about every corporation and every social program going bankrupt at once. I’m talking about people eating people. I’m talking about the Worst Catastrophe to ever happen in the history of mankind. Nothing has ever, or will ever come close…

Scholarly references:

Scientific American: Apocalypse Soon: Has Civilization Passed the Environmental Point of No Return?
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/apocalypse-soon-has-civilization-passed-the-environmental-point-of-no-return/

Inside the new economic science of capitalism’s slow-burn energy collapse (Ahmed, 2017)
View story at Medium.com

Peer Reviewed Study: Society Could Collapse In A Decade, Predicts Historian (Turchin, 2010)
https://www.nature.com/articles/463608a

NASA Peer Reviewed Study: Industrial Civilization is Headed for Irreversible Collapse (Motesharrei, 2014)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800914000615

The Royal Society: Peer Reviewed Study, Now for the First Time A Global Collapse Appears Likely (Ehrlich, 2013)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3574335/

Peer Reviewed Study: Limits to Growth was Right. Research Shows We’re Nearing Global Collapse (Turner, 2014)
http://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/sites/default/files/docs/MSSI-ResearchPaper-4_Turner_2014.pdf

Peer Reviewed Study: Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: Global Systemic Collapse (Korowicz, 2012)

• Baby Doomer says:

Sorry that one link was broken.

Peer Reviewed Study: Limits to Growth was Right. Research Shows We’re Nearing Global Collapse (Turner, 2014) https://www.scribd.com/document/379418787/Is-Global-Collapse-Imminent-An-Updated-Comparison-of-The-Limits-to-Growth-with-Historical-Data-Turner-2014

• Why not disease? That is what people in prior collapses died of. Is there going to be plenty of clean drinking water for everyone? People catch diseases very quickly from dirty water that they are unable to boil.

• Greg Machala says:

+1 for disease.

• DJ says:

We are already mostly dying of disease.

So collapse is just a question of timing. Nothing to fear.

• Fast Eddy says:

I have no diseases — at present.

• Slow Paul says:

Somewhere between 2020 and 2050 sounds about right, depending on which rung of the global economic ladder you are standing on.

Who will get the bid for the 2050 World Cup? I’m guessing not South Africa…

• Baby Doomer says:

Who will get the bid for the 2050 World Cup? I’m guessing not South Africa…

• Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

Venezuela, after it’s miraculous recovery…

but, “seriously”:

I’ve commented about the imminent end to the Olympic Games…

the World Cup, less costly and simpler logistics, seems like it could go on longer…

exclusively in the Core countries…

any wagers?

I would bet on the last Olympics in 2032 or 2036…

• Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

“We live in frightening times. It’s my belief that “you personally” will most likely die of starvation or conflict between 2020 to 2050.”

okay!

bring it on!

but I’m not going down without a fight!

I’m thinking of prepping soon, maybe even tomorrow!

or, at least next week!

or June 2nd…

I have BIG plans to store up 250 years worth of supplies…

bottled water, food, and 100s or perhaps 1,000s of guns…

and lots of ammo!

in the year 2150, I will be laughing at the thought of your prediction!

ha ha ha ha ha!

• Baby Doomer says:

June 2nd is my Birthday! I will be 31..It sucks I will not get to grow old..But at least I got to live through my 20’s..Which were amazing..Its pretty much all downhill after 27 anyways. That is why most musicians kill themselves after that age..

• xabier says:

You forgot the…..dark chocolate! 🙂

• xabier says:

Live for long enough in times of peace and plenty and you will also eventually starve and maybe choke or drown: starve when you can no longer swallow food due to the necessary muscles weakening, drown and choke as your lungs fill with fluid and cease to function.

You will also inevitably die ‘poor’, as when dying and feeble you can actually use nothing at all, however ‘rich’ or ‘comfortably off’ you are said to be…..

It’s all about getting a just perspective on life, what it is and what it really offers us.

• SomeoneInAsia says:

I’d like to believe I’ll be reincarnated on another planet as a member of some intelligent alien species.

2. Baby Doomer says:

Crude oil to hit \$90 a barrel as diesel, jet fuel demand soars, Morgan Stanley predicts

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/16/oil-to-hit-90-in-2020-on-diesel-jet-fuel-demand-morgan-stanley.html

• Fast Eddy says:

Is the physical bottleneck for oil playing out before our eyes?

And this time… we are out of options to mitigate (there is no BS… Beyond Shale)

• Baby Doomer says:

Seems like the supply crunch predicted in the 2017 HSBC Peak Oil Report is coming to pass. Effective spare capacity shrinking to an ever more miniscule fraction of an ever-growing total demand, which the influx of tight oil cannot hope to match sustainably, let alone profitably, while new discoveries are both rarer and smaller in size. A slower increase of demand, alone, would not remedy this issue.

“Even in a world of slower oil demand growth, we think the oil industry’s biggest long-term challenge is to offset declines in production from mature fields. The scale of this issue is such that in our view rather there could well be a *global supply squeeze some time before we are realistically looking at global demand peaking.”
And there is no more kicking the can down the road.

“The size of oil discoveries has also been steadily diminishing over the years, fully consistent with our earlier findings on field start-ups. Oil fields typically start up within 5-15 years of discovery, so trends related to discoveries should simply anticipate those for producing fields with a time lag. According Wood Mackenzie, the average size of oil discoveries has steadily declined over time and reached an all-time low in 2015 of just 24mmbbls of oil resources per discovery well. For context, this compares to 340mbbls in the 1960’s and 180mbbls in the 1970’s, and is equivalent to 18% of the historical annual average since 1960.”

https://www.scribd.com/document/367688629/HSBC-Peak-Oil-Report-2017

• Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

“The scale of this issue is such that in our view rather there could well be a *global supply squeeze some time before we are realistically looking at global demand peaking.”

or, EMs could stop “emerging” and start to regress…

“Even in a world of slower oil demand growth…”

what about the real possibility of declining demand?

there might be declining oil supply in the 2020s…

but crashing peripheral countries, like perhaps all of South America, could leave the Core countries with adequate supply…

all theoretical… no one knows how this will play out…

• Fast Eddy says:

They did predict a bottleneck in 2018…. hmmmm…..

Is the train about to go off the rails?

• Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

is the Core knocking the peripheral trains off the rails intentionally?

so that the Core has less competition for remaining resources?

3. futhark says:

Perilous times, just ahead. How will we ever survive, with today’s snowflakes at the helm? We need some old style heroes.

https://genius.com/Haysi-fantayzee-john-wayne-is-big-leggy-lyrics

• Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

• Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

He advised students to ask themselves one simple question when thinking about how they will impact the future: “Do you want to win an argument, or do you want to change the world?”

wow… is that a trick question?

let’s see…

I’ll have to go with “win an argument”…

“There is no shortage of cynicism and selfishness in the world,” he added. “Be their answer, their antidote. I am abundantly optimistic about the future because of you. It is yours to make and mold and shape.”

ooooh… why doesn’t everyone on OFW agree?

• Fast Eddy says:

What future?

• xabier says:

Canada: made by tough men and women, inherited by the weak. As with every state….

Churchill used to cry a lot when emotional: but then, he could lead a cavalry charge, command an infantry battalion, handle a sabre and lance, and was a good shot with pistol, rifle and tommy-gun! Oh, and plan a war for survival against all odds…….

Trudeau could probably plan a tea party for gender-confused 5yr olds.

• Harry Gibbs says:

Lol, Xabier. Camille Paglia said in a recent interview that the rise of transgenderism in the West is symptomatic of decadence and cultural collapse. Of course she doesn’t know the half of it, the cultural collapse being merely the surface expression of accelerating global, economic collapse.

But I fear she is right – shrill harpies, soggy ‘male feminists’ and sexually neurotic young people ego-tripping on special labels will continue to be the order of the day. Likewise Orwellian absurdities like this:

https://www.chronicle.com/article/He-Makes-a-Joke-She-Isn-t/243350

• JesseJames says:

“Simona Sharoni, a professor of women’s and gender studies at Merrimack College” says it all. She is trained to take offense at everything. She teaches nothing of value. This stuff will all dusappear in 20-40 yrs.

4. Fast Eddy says:
5. Fast Eddy says:

Aaron Layman
May 15, 2018 at 3:57 pm
Looks like you are playing linguistic limbo. It’s a bit like saying a major hurricane won’t affect the city of Houston because there will still be GDP growth rebuilding all of the property that was destroyed.
Texas will no doubt benefit from these higher gas prices, but ultimately U.S. consumers, predominantly lower and middle income consumers are going to be forced to cut back on other purchases, thus cutting into “consumer spending” on things other than fuel.

Wolf Richter
May 15, 2018 at 7:44 pm
No “linguistic limbo” (I like that actually). Gasoline is a consumer product like any other. But unlike Chinese stuff, gasoline has a lot of American added value, as the US produces more and more of its own crude and refines it too. \$50 spent on gas adds a lot more to the economy than \$50 spent on some China-made clothing (imports are a negative in the GDP formula).

Duh…. he seems to not understand that it is not only Chinese manufacturers that are impacted… retailers both online and bricks and mortar suffer (in the US)… restaurants suffer…. the travel industry… US manufacturers… the US mining industry…. basically every industry suffers… because oil is used in the manufacture and distribution of everything ….

How can he not get this?

• Fast Eddy says:

VarAway
May 16, 2018 at 4:29 am
Good one Wolf!
Never looked at it THAT way!

(yes wolf yes yes — you are brilliant — you are the greatest — only you could see it in t his light… you are awesome… let me donate money to you oh great one…. can I offer you my 18 year old daughters? What an honour it would be…. my wife will video it and you can run it on your site…. Wolf you are so smart… and handsome … and awesome)

• Kurt says:

You know wolf is lame – he never dated Amber Heard. Or Grimes for that matter. I loved watching him cry while Hillary got beat.

• Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

but then, you’ve never dated her either…

• Baby Doomer says:

Every one cent increase in gasoline prices reduces household purchasing power by \$1 billion. We use about 140 billion gallons of gasoline a year…

-Goldman Sachs

• Fast Eddy says:

No it doesn’t — in Wolf-world…. that cent still gets spent — on petrol — so that supports the economy….

But let’s not stop there – as Wolf says — this is actually a good thing — because the oil purchased with that cent — is possibly produced in America — therefore it means that America gets stronger … while China suffers — because the cent would have been used to purchase more junk made in China

This is Wolf’s World… it is a province of DelusiSTAN. He is the King of that Province.

6. Fast Eddy says:

Ah ha! Now we know why solar is so expensive.

Solar Beats Coal on U.S. Jobs
The industry put twice as many people to work last year than its fossil-fuel counterpart

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-16/solar-beats-coal-on-u-s-jobs

So many people… to produce so little

• Fast Eddy says:

Of course because people are f789ing stoooopid…. they will be reading that garbage from the MoT…. and thinking exactly what this garbage wants them to think…. that coal needs to go … that solar is awesome … it saves the planet and creates many jobs…

It will not occur to them – because they are f789ing stoooopid… that employing so many people to produce virtually no energy…. is like hiring thousands of people to dig holes and fill them back in …

Like a bunch of rats being run around chasing bits of food tossed about by their masters….

Incredible how easy it is to manipulate humans. To control what they think….

• You will like these charts of German solar panel installations and jobs.

Solar installations:

Solar jobs:

• Fast Eddy says:

The Green Groopies have been forced to come to their senses… otherwise the German economy collapses…

R-E-A-L-I-T-Y:

100% Renewables by 2050 — Germany Pays the Price for its Ambition

First, Germany’s fabled manufacturing sector cannot afford much higher energy costs than its rivals. Hence, Germany offers substantial discounts to heavy energy users, such as its automobile plants. As a consequence Germany faces lawsuits from the European Union that charge it with illegal subsidies of heavy industry. Second, German households must bear the financial burden of paying among the highest electricity costs in the world as utilities pass the higher costs of renewables on to them.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/uhenergy/2017/03/31/100-renewables-by-2050-germany-pays-the-price-for-its-ambition/#18fb248a1e98

• Christiana says:

The science-skeptical guys are climate change deniers. They do everything to prove only BAU is possible. There is more solar, which is used in enterprises but not sold to the grid (because then it is without subsidies), the 600 MW is for subsidies.

• The climate is changing, but adding solar does absolutely nothing useful to fix the problem.

7. Baby Doomer says:

Europe To Pay Iran In Euros For Oil, Abandoning The Dollar

http://www.ibtimes.com/europe-pay-iran-euros-oil-abandoning-dollar-2681417

8. Baby Doomer says:

Satellite data strongly suggests that China, Russia and other authoritarian countries are fudging their GDP reports

https://qz.com/1277011/satellite-images-reveal-which-countries-cheat-on-their-economic-statistics/

9. Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

slow motion unraveling:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/16/us-treasurys-tick-higher-after-reaching-multi-year-highs.html

it was 3.09…

now 3.10…

OMG!

is it accurate to say that these rising US rates are causing more problems in EMs?

hurrah for globalization…

10. Baby Doomer says:

The Latest: Jailed man claims Paddock ranted before shooting

Paddock called Federal Emergency Management Agency “camps” set up after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 “a dry run for law enforcement and military to start kickin’ down doors and … confiscating guns.”