The world’s weird self-organizing economy

Why is it so difficult to make accurate long-term economic forecasts for the world economy? There are many separate countries involved, each with a self-organizing economy made up of businesses, consumers, governments, and laws. These individual economies together create a single world economy, which again is self-organizing.

Self-organizing economies don’t work in a convenient linear pattern–in other words, in a way that makes it possible to make valid straight line predictions from the past. Instead, they work in ways that don’t match up well with standard projection techniques.

How do we forecast what lies ahead? Today, some economists believe that the economy of the United States is in danger of overheating. Others believe that Italy and the United Kingdom are facing dire problems, and that these problems could adversely affect the world economy. The world economy should be our highest concern because each country is dependent on a combination of imported and exported goods. The forecasting question becomes, “How will divergent economic results affect the world’s economy?”

I am not an economist; I am a retired actuary. I have spent years making forecasts within the insurance industry. These forecasts were financial in nature, so I have had hands-on experience with how various parts of the financial system work. I was one of the people who correctly forecast the Great Recession. I also wrote the frequently cited academic article, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis, which points out the connection between the Great Recession and oil limits.

Today’s indications seem to suggest that an even more major recession than the Great Recession may strike in the not too distant future. Why should this be the case? Am I imagining problems where none exist?

The next ten sections provide an introduction to how the world’s self-organizing economy seems to operate.

[1] The economy is one of many self-organized systems that grow. All are governed by the laws of physics. All use energy in their operation.

There are many other self-organizing systems that grow. One such system is the sun. Some forecasts indicate that it will keep expanding in size and brightness for about the next five billion years. Eventually, it is expected to collapse under its own weight.

Hurricanes are a type of self-organizing system that grows. Hurricanes grow over warm ocean waters. If they travel over land for a short time, they can sometimes shrink back a bit and grow again once they have an adequate source of heat-energy from warm water. Eventually, they collapse.

Plants and animals also represent self-organizing systems that grow. Some plants grow throughout their lifetimes; others stabilize in size after reaching maturity. Animals continue to require food (a form of energy) even after they stabilize at their mature size.

We can’t use the typical patterns of these other growing self-organized systems to conclude much about the future path of the world’s economic growth because individual patterns are quite different. However, we notice that cutting off the energy supply used by any of these systems (for example, moving a hurricane permanently over land or starving a human) will lead to the demise of that system.

We also know that lack of food is not the only reason why humans die. Based on this observation, it is a reasonable conclusion that having enough energy available is not a sufficient condition to guarantee that the world economy will continue to operate as in the past. For example, a blocked shipping channel, such as at the Strait of Hormuz, could pose a significant problem for the world economy. This would be analogous to a blocked artery in a human.

[2] The use of energy products is hidden deeply within the economy. As a result, many people overlook their significance. They are also difficult for researchers to measure. 

It is easy to see that gasoline provides the energy supply needed for our cars, and that electricity provides the power needed to clean our clothes. What is missing? The answer seems to be, “Everything that makes humans different from wild animals is something that was made possible by the use of supplemental energy in addition to the energy from food.”

All goods and services require the use of energy. While some of this energy use is easy to see, other portions are well hidden. Energy used in manufacturing and transport is most visible; energy used in services tends to be hidden.

Governments are major users of energy, both for their own programs and for directing energy use to others. Retirees get the benefit of goods and services made with energy products through pension checks issued by governments; researchers get the benefit of goods and services made with energy products through research grants they receive. Wars require energy.

Medical treatments are possible because of the availability of medicines and equipment made with energy products. Schools and books, as well as free time to study in schools (rather than working in the field), are possible because of energy consumption. Jobs of all kinds require the use of energy.

One thing we don’t often consider is that if energy supplies are growing sufficiently, they permit an expanding population. In fact, expanding population seems to be the single largest use of growth in energy consumption (Figure 1). Growing energy consumption also seems to be associated with prosperity.

Figure 1. World energy consumption growth for ten-year periods (ended at dates shown) divided between population growth (based on Angus Maddison estimates) and total energy consumption growth, based on the author’s review of BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011 data and estimates from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects by Vaclav Smil.

[3] Prices of energy services need to be low relative to overall costs of the economy. Falling energy costs relative to overall GDP tend to encourage economic growth.

Most economists expect energy prices to represent a large share of GDP costs, if energy is truly important. The statement above says the opposite. There are at least two reasons why low energy prices, and energy prices that are truly falling when inflation and productivity changes are considered, are helpful.

First, tools (broadly defined) used to leverage the labor of human workers often require considerable energy to manufacture and operate. Examples of such tools include computers, machines used in manufacturing, vehicles, and roads for these vehicles to drive on. The lower the cost to purchase and operate these tools, relative to the benefit of the tools, the more likely employers are to purchase them. If energy costs tend to fall over time, it becomes progressively easier to add more tools to leverage the labor of employees. Thus, employees become increasingly productive over time, raising the economy’s output of goods and services. For a similar reason, rising energy costs, if not offset by efficiency gains, present a barrier to economic growth.

Second, if the cost of energy production is low, it is easy to tax energy producers and thereby capture some of the benefit of their energy for the rest of the economy. If there is truly a “net energy” benefit to the economy, this is one way it gets transferred to the rest of the economy.

[4] There is indeed an energy problem, but it is not quite the same one that Peak Oilers have been concerned about.

The energy problem that Peak Oilers write about is the possibility that as easy-to-extract oil supplies deplete, oil production will reach a peak in production and begin to decline. Once decline sets in, they expect that oil prices will rise, partly because of the higher cost of production and partly because of scarcity. With these higher prices, they expect that producers will be able to extract at least a portion of the remaining oil resources. They also expect that higher prices will allow portions of the remaining natural gas and coal resources to be extracted. With higher prices, expanded use of renewable energy is expected to become feasible. All of these energy sources are expected to keep the economy operating at some level.

There are several problems with this story. First, it tends to encourage people to look for high oil prices as a sign of an oil shortage. This is not the correct indication to look for. Prior to 1970, oil prices averaged less than $20 per barrel. Comparing pre-1970 prices to today’s oil prices, current prices are already very high, at $75 per barrel. The idea that oil prices can keep rising indefinitely assumes that there is no affordability limit. Furthermore, a loss of energy consumption can be expected to reduce demand (because of its impact on jobs, productivity, and wages) at the same time that it reduces supply. If both supply and demand are affected, we don’t know which way prices will move.

Second, my analysis suggests that part of the story is that total energy consumption is very important, including oil, coal, natural gas, nuclear, and various forms of electricity. All of the attention given to oil has drawn attention away from the economy’s need for a range of energy types to keep devices of all types operating. Deciding to reduce coal usage because of pollution issues, or deciding to shut down nuclear because it is aging, has an equally adverse impact on the economy as reducing oil supply, unless the shortfall can be made up with other energy products of precisely the type needed by current devices.

Third, my analysis suggests that energy consumption per capita needs to rise for the economy to function in the way that we expect it to function. If world energy consumption per capita is too flat, we can expect to see many of the symptoms that the world has been experiencing recently: more radical leaders, less cooperation among leaders, slowing economic growth and increasing debt problems. In fact, wars are possible, as are collapses of governments (as with the Soviet Union central government in 1991). The current situation seems to be more parallel to the 1920 to 1940 flat period than it does to the 1980 to 2000 flat period.

Finally, with low energy prices rather than high quite possibly being much of the problem, there is a significant chance that oil and other production will decline because producers do not make enough profit for reinvestment and because oil exporting countries cannot collect enough taxes to fund the many subsidies that citizens expect. This makes for a steeper energy decline than forecast by Peak Oilers; it also reduces the possibility that high-priced renewables will be helpful.

[5] Part of the world’s energy problem is a distribution problem; the world becomes divided into haves and have-nots in many ways. It is this distribution problem that tends to push the world economy toward collapse. 

There are many parts to this distribution problem. One is the distribution of goods and services (created using energy) by country. Over time, this tends to change, especially as commodity prices change. Oil exporters are favored when oil prices are high; oil importers are favored when oil prices are low. The relative values of currencies can change quickly, as commodity prices change.

Another part of this distribution problem is growing wage and wealth disparity, as more technology is added. If there is too much wage disparity, low-paid workers often cannot afford adequate food, homes, and transportation for their families. Their lack of demand for goods made with energy products (because of their low wages) tends to work through the system as low commodity prices. This happens because (a) there are so many of these workers and (b) these workers tend to purchase a disproportionate share of goods and services that are highly energy-dependent.

[6] Debt-like promises play a major role in making the economy operate.

Taking out a loan allows an individual or business to purchase goods without saving for the purchase in advance. To some extent, taking out a loan moves up the timing of purchases. At times, it even permits purchases that otherwise would not be possible. For example, if a young person tries to decide between (a) working at a low wage until he has saved up enough to afford to go to college and (b) taking out a loan and going to school now, so his wages would be higher in future years, his optimal choice will often be scenario (b). The time would likely never come when the low-paid individual could save up enough wages to afford to go to college. If the young person strongly desires high wages, his optimal strategy would be to take the loan and hope that his future wages will be high enough to repay it.

If the goal of the economy is to produce an ever-increasing amount of goods and services, growing debt can very much help this growth. This happens because with more debt, more individuals and businesses can afford* to buy the goods and services that they want now. In a sense, debt acts like a promise of the future energy needed to make future goods and services with which the loan can be repaid. Thus, adding debt acts somewhat like adding energy to the economy.

Because of the way debt works, the economy behaves much like a bicycle, with growing debt pulling the system forward. If the economy is growing too slowly, the tendency is to add more debt. This solution works if a rapidly growing supply of cheap-to-produce energy is available; the additional debt can be used to create a growing supply of affordable goods and services. If energy costs are high, the goods and services produced tend to be unaffordable.

Figure 2. The author’s view of the analogy of a speeding upright bicycle and a speeding economy.

A bicycle needs to operate at a fast enough speed (about 7.5 feet per second), or it will fall over. Similarly, the world economy needs to grow fast enough, or it will not be able to meet its obligations, including repayment of debt with interest. If the economy grows too slowly, debt defaults are likely to grow, pulling the economy down.

[7] It looks like it should be possible to work around energy problems with improved technology, but experience suggests that this approach represents only a temporary “fix.”

There are two issues that make improved technology less of a solution than it appears to be. The first is diminishing returns. For example, if a business faces a choice between (a) paying a worker to perform a process and (b) adding a machine that can perform the same process, the business will tend to make the changes that seem to provide the largest cost savings first. At some point, as more technology is added, capital costs can be expected to become excessive relative to the human labor that might be saved. The issue of the diminishing returns to added complexity (which includes growing technology) was pointed out by Joseph Tainter in The Collapse of Complex Societies.

The second reason why added technology tends to be only a temporary solution is because it tends to lead to wage disparity. Wage disparity has a tendency to grow because of the greater specialization and larger organizations needed to coordinate the ever-larger projects. The reduced purchasing power of those at the bottom of the hierarchy can eventually bring an economy down because it can lead to commodity prices that are below the level needed to maintain the extraction of fossil fuels. Fossil fuels are required to maintain today’s economy.

[8] Renewable energy has been vastly oversold as a solution. What is needed is an ever-increasing quantity of inexpensive energy in forms that match the energy needs of current devices. 

The wind and solar story is far different from the story presented in the press. Essentially, wind and solar are extensions of today’s fossil fuel system. The evidence that they are truly beneficial to the economy is shaky at best. We know that if energy sources are truly transferring significant “net energy” to the system, they generally can afford to pay high taxes. The fact that wind and solar require subsidies raises questions regarding whether standard calculations are providing accurate guidance. The press rarely mentions the high tax revenue that high oil prices make possible, worldwide. Tax revenues largely support many oil exporting countries.

Furthermore, the share of the world’s energy supply that wind and solar provide is very low: 1.9% and 0.7%, respectively. They are shown in the almost invisible blue and orange lines at the very top of Figure 3. Fossil fuels contributed 85% of total energy supply in 2017.

Figure 3. World energy consumption divided between fossil fuels and non-fossil fuel energy sources, based on data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018.

[9] The world economy becomes very fragile as energy limits approach.

Energy limits seem to be affordable energy limits. Oil prices need to be high enough for exporting countries to obtain adequate tax revenue. In addition, oil producers need prices that are high enough so that they can make the necessary reinvestment, as fields deplete. At the same time, energy prices need to be low enough for consumers to afford goods and services made with energy products.

Much of developed world’s infrastructure was built when oil prices were less than $20 per barrel, in inflation-adjusted terms. A rising price of oil will lead to a higher cost of replacing roads and pipelines. If these were built using $20 per barrel oil, even a current price of $40 per barrel would represent a significant cost increase. The world has experienced high oil prices for sufficiently long that we have collectively forgotten how low oil prices were between 1900 and 1970.

Most people know that the earth holds a huge quantity of energy resources. The problem is extracting these resources in a way that is both affordable to consumers and sufficiently high-priced for producers. Falling long-term interest rates between 1981 and 2002 allowed the world economy to tolerate somewhat higher oil and other energy prices than it otherwise could because these falling interest rates permitted ever-lower monthly payments for a given loan amount. For example, if interest rates on a $300,000 mortgage would fall from 5% to 4% on a 25-year mortgage, monthly payments would decrease from $1,753 to $1,584. The lower interest rates would allow more people to buy homes with a given size of mortgage. Indirectly, the lower mortgage rates would permit additional new homes to be built and would allow more inflation in home prices. These benefits would at least partially offset the adverse impact of high energy prices.

Since the natural decline in long term interest rates stopped in 2002, the world economy has become increasingly fragile; the Great Recession took place in 2007-2009, when oil prices spiked and long-term interest rates were already low by historical standards. It was only when the United States’ program of quantitative easing (QE) was put in place that long-term interest rates could fall to even lower levels, helping the economy hide the problem of high energy prices a little longer.

The artificially low interest rates made possible by QE have problems of their own. They tend to inflate asset prices, including both real estate prices and stock market prices. Thus, they tend to create bubbles, which are prone to collapse if interest rates rise. Artificially low interest rates also tend to encourage investment in schemes with very low profit potential. Artificially low interest rates also encourage cross-border investments to try to take advantage of interest rate differences. If interest rate relativities change, the money that quickly would enter a country can almost as quickly leave the country, causing major fluctuations in currency relativities.

Regulators do not understand the role that physics plays in making the economy operate as it does. They assume that they, alone, have the power to make the economy behave as it does. They do not understand how important falling interest rates are in creating growing demand for goods and services. The economy, since 1981, has spent most of its time with falling interest rates; the most recent part of this decline in long-term interest rates has been made possible by QE. These falling interest rates have played a major role in disguising the world’s long-term problem of rising energy costs. These rising energy costs are taking place primarily because the cheapest-to-extract resources were produced first; the resources that are left have higher costs associated with them, for a variety of reasons, such as being farther away from the user, deeper, or needing more advanced extraction techniques. These issues have not been sufficiently offset by improved technology to keep extraction costs low.

US regulators now want to raise interest rates by raising short term interest rates and by selling QE securities. They don’t understand that they are playing with fire. If they can raise interest rates now, they will have the flexibility to lower them later if the economy should later slow excessively. They think that the higher rates will give them more control over the economy. They don’t understand how much of the world’s economy may really be a bubble, created by the decline in interest rates since 1981.

[10] The adverse economic outcome we should be concerned about is collapse, as encountered by prior civilizations when their economies hit limits. 

The stories in the press have been so focused on oil “running out” and finding alternatives to oil that few have stopped to ask whether this is really the correct story. Instead of creating a new story, it might have been better to look more closely at history. Based on the historical record, collapse seems to have been associated with situations where populations have outgrown their resource bases. In other words, collapse can be considered an energy consumption per capita problem. The oil problem (and other fuel problems) we are facing today can be viewed as an energy consumption per capita problem, as well.

We know from research that has been done by Peter Turchin, Joseph Tainter, and others how collapse has played out in the past. The situation is different this time, however, because the world economy is very interconnected. Oil consumption depends on electricity consumption, and vice versa. Our financial system is also extraordinarily important. For these reasons, a collapse may occur more quickly than in the past.

Differences Between My View and the Standard View

One of the big differences between the way I see the economy and the standard view of the economy is the answer to the question of “Who is in charge?” The standard view is that politicians and economists are in charge. They have all of the answers. The dire collapse outcomes that afflicted early civilizations could not possibly affect us. We are too smart. We know how to adjust interest rates correctly. We can even make QE available to lower long-term interest rates. We can also add more technology and other complexity than has ever been added in the past.

The answer I see to the question, “Who is in charge?” is, “The laws of physics are in charge.” Politicians play a fairly minor role in directing the fate of economies. If there is not enough energy available of the type needed (inexpensive and matching the current infrastructure), the economy may very well collapse. It is nature and the laws of physics that call most of the shots.

Another big difference between my view and the standard view is the observation that a decrease in oil supply (or total energy supply) affects both the supply and demand of energy. Because both supply and demand are affected, we don’t know which direction oil and other energy prices will move. They may move erratically, as interest rates are adjusted by regulators. A more complex model is needed.

Climate change becomes less of an issue in my view of the future, for several reasons. First, humans don’t really have very much control over the direction of the economy, so talking about anthropogenic climate change doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. The laws of physics that allowed human population to rise are also allowing climate change to happen. Second, we seem to be limited in our ability to use renewables to fix the situation. Furthermore, the possibility of collapse in the near future makes the various scenarios that hypothesize the use of large amounts of fossil fuels over many years in the future seem very unrealistic. Perhaps efforts to fix climate change should be focused in new directions, such as planting trees.

Help from Others

The subject matter of this post requires the knowledge of information from a wide range of academic areas. I could not have figured out all of this information on my own. I have been fortunate to have been able to learn from of a wide range of experts. Quite a number of academic groups have seen my articles, and invited me to speak at their conferences. In particular, I have had a long-term involvement with the BioPhysical Economics organization and have spoken at many of their conferences. I have learned much from Dr. Charles Hall, although at times I don’t 100% agree with him.

I have also learned from the many commenters on OurFiniteWorld.com. They form a self-organizing system of people from a wide range of backgrounds. Earlier, my involvement at TheOilDrum.com as “Gail the Actuary” allowed me to get acquainted with a range of researchers, looking at different aspect of the energy problem.

In future posts, I intend to expand further on the ideas presented in this post.

*Here I am using the term afford loosely. What borrowers can actually afford is the current required monthly payments.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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2,524 Responses to The world’s weird self-organizing economy

  1. Baby Doomer says:

    Fox & Friends First reports on violence “spilling across the border into Baja California” from Mexico (Baja California is a Mexican state)

    https://www.mediamatters.org/video/2018/07/31/fox-friends-first-reports-violence-spilling-across-border-baja-california-mexico-baja-california/220854

    Joseph Goebbels has nothing on Murdoch’s media empire..

  2. Fast Eddy says:

    https://www.amazon.com/1493-Uncovering-World-Columbus-Created/dp/0307278247

    A most fascinating book – 2/3s of the way through….

    Guano …. the precursor to petrochemical nitrogen fertilizers… was discovered off of Peru and fended off Malthus’ predictions by dramatically increasing crop yields…

    Is believed to have been involved in the transport of the blight that caused famine in Europe – particularly Ireland….

    There is a fair bit of detail re the Ireland Potato Famine … including neighbour attacking neighbour ….

    Over food.

    Hello Doomie Preppers — did you read that that? Neighbour attacking neighbour – over food.

    Do you have neighbours? Do you have families? Do you have friends? Can you feed all of them? Any of them?

    You could be traveling the world… or golfing … or playing tennis… or bridge… or taking walks in the forest… or sinking pints at the pub…. or buying the latest greatest blow up dolls… whatever takes your fancy…. instead of wasting your time growing bigger pumpkins and pulling weeds….

  3. UK domestic car production falls nearly by half: “The number of cars made in the UK fell last month after domestic demand plunged due to what the industry body called a “perfect storm of events”. Production fell 5.5% in June – driven by a 47.2% drop in production for the UK market.”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45011687

    • Yoshua says:

      The energy from energy production must supply energy for extraction, refinery, distribution, infrastructure, machine building and finally to fuel the machines to produce goods and services.

      My guess is that we will see a falling EROI first as a decaying infrastructure and secondly as a decline in the building of machines.

      • Yoshua says:

        Oh and buy the way…I haven’t got a clue how solar panels will produce enough energy to extract minerals, produce solar panels, build an infrastructure and machines…before you can even start power your toothbrush?

      • your observations about decline are correct

        but i think you omit one factor

        energy availability is critical to employment

        if building ‘stuff’ declines, then so does employment. when employment drops below a critical level, the population becomes unstable—after that any one of a number of things can happen.

        in the event the nation becomes ungovernable, which in the case of the vastness of the USA, would mean secession and breakup–if there’s energy shortage, Washington cannot enforce laws on California or texas

      • craig moodie says:

        Believe it or not, I saw a comment the other day from someone saying, peak energy is a fallacy as sometime in the future, technology will invent a new form of energy. I think it could have been Harley Schlanger from La Rouche.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          They should be concerned about peak economy. It takes 50+ years to scale up a new form of energy, even if it were invented today. It is necessary to scale up production from lab scale to the scale needed by the whole system. If new devices are needed, factories to make the devices have to be made first. It takes a lot of time from the system to really change.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I like how they blame this on Brexit worries…. and then in the next line they indicate 8 of 10 cars produced in the UK are for export markets….

      The UK looks to be hanging from a very thin thread.

  4. Lithium ion batteries will not be the storage solution of the future. They are too expensive. There are much cheaper energy storage solutions that are already available today. Did you catch the statement in the article above? “Ferrara’s modeling has found that such a battery could make it possible for renewables to provide 90 percent of electricity needs for most grids, for just marginally higher costs than today’s.” I’m not the only one pointing out that the costs to transition to solar and wind are well within the realm of possibility. The commenters on this site are just stuck in a doom loop. I feel sorry for you who blindly deny the facts in front of your face. The technology is available at a reasonable cost TODAY (I showed you the math). It is just going to take 30 to 50 years to implement it. Once peak oil occurs, the only energy substitute will be solar and wind and the world will adopt it out of necessity (and at most, it will be marginally more expensive than oil because the EROEI of solar and wind is less than oil today).

    • Mark says:

      You never responded to the reasonable questions, Now you come when the comments close with an Ad hominem attack?

      • Dan says:

        Billy,

        Let’s take a look at a real world example. Recently I was at a meeting and during the break I was speaking with a colleague who had installed solar panels on his house here in East Texas. For those wondering I did not disparage him, but I was surprised given that I thought he was reasonably good with math, at least in his job he is. He spent $22k to do this and the expected lifespan is about 20 years for the panels according to him. I’ve been to his home before and I’d estimate it’s about 1600 – 1800 square feet about the same size as my house. So I’ll assume his power bills are about the same as mine (I’m all electric) at about $250 / month (22k / 250 = 7.3 years). Let’s say he is able to generate 50% of his power with his panels (pretty sure that is about what he’s able to do – night, winter, cloudy days, etc.) and there is no maintenance costs now were talking 14.6 years. Wow!! you say see there he has cut his power bill in the long run, but he hasn’t. Remember he paid $22k upfront, actually he financed it but let’s pretend he paid it out of pocket. In a standard treasury 10 yr note at 3% over the 14 years before the initial $22k is recouped he’s lost out over $9k. So by being smart and wanting to cut his power bill in half nearly 15 years out he’s out 9 grand which at $250 / month is 3 years worth of bills. Now we are approaching the end of the lifespan on the panels.

        He didn’t gain anything financially.

        In terms of resources spent he gobbled up a lot upfront for unrealized gains in the long term. As Gail points out repeatedly it takes a lot of energy to manufacture solar panels and then more to transport and then more to install and then more to maintain (remember I left maintenance out of my example).

        What if there is a hurricane, tornado, or fire all of which my friend lives with. All that expended energy used for his solar panels are now lost. Now multiply that by millions or 10 of millions or 100’s of millions of houses.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I am anxious to hear which auto owners will be singled out for month to month storage. Also for year to year storage. It would seem like using batteries in this manner would be a tad difficult.

      Even for the few singled out for day to day storage, they would need their batteries fully shared up by sundown, so that they could be rapidly drawn down for evening cooking, clothes washing, air conditioning, and TV watching. After bedtime, the autos could be recharged. All of this wear and tear would rapidly wear out batteries, I expect.

      I don’t know how end of day charge up of batteries could really be arranged, except greatly over sizing batteries relative to auto needs.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Breaking News!

        Amazon announces a breakthrough in battery storage. The company has developed a commercially viable cloud storage system for EVs and physical batteries will not longer be necessary. Energy will be delivered to the vehicles via a USB port and router device similar to what you have in your home but with a more robust cabling system.

        The cloud energy system will be powered by an array of space solar satellites developed by Keith Enterprises… which has been acquired by Amazon for 200 billion dollars.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          You are being silly. This will happen about as quickly as a person can catch a cold, talking to someone with a cold over the internet.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Billy – might I suggest you exit the doom loop and return to DelusiSTAN… because there is no possible way you can un-convince the seers….

      I thought you got on the bus the other day … what happened?

  5. Here’s some more on the possibility of food price spikes:

    “…the wheat market is poised to tighten sharply as Russia, Australia and EU countries contend with scorching temperatures. In Australia, the state of New South Wales has announced a A$500m aid package for struggling farmers, while Germany’s farming association has called for €1bn in financial assistance from federal and state authorities.

    “In response, the Euronext milling wheat benchmark is at a four-year high of €203 a tonne as analysts downgrade output estimates for EU wheat.

    “Europe’s wheat production is forecast to fall below 130m tonnes for the first time in six years, according to Strategie Grains… The consultancy sees further downgrades in the near future.

    “Output for Ukraine has also been hit by the poorer harvests, while leading producer Russia is expected to see a sharp fall in production… Amy Reynolds, senior economist at IGC, noted there was a question mark over North America output as well due to a lack of precipitation in some parts..

    “The falling production comes as some agricultural experts have warned that the depressing effect of trade tension on key food commodities has obscured the risks of a sharp spike in prices.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/585a0226-9401-11e8-b747-fb1e803ee64e

  6. Uber is ending its self-driving truck program

    Uber is ending its self-driving truck program, TechCrunch first reported.

    An Uber representative confirmed the news to Business Insider and said the company had determined that developing autonomous trucks was not necessary to stay competitive in the freight logistics industry. Uber Freight, which allows companies to find truck drivers to haul their cargo, will not be affected by the decision.

    “We’ve decided to stop development on our self-driving truck program and move forward exclusively with cars. We recently took the important step of returning to public roads in Pittsburgh, and as we look to continue that momentum, we believe having our entire team’s energy and expertise focused on this effort is the best path forward,” Eric Meyhofer, the head of Uber’s Advanced Technologies Group, said in a statement.
    Employees who were working in the self-driving truck program will be shifted to other roles related to autonomous-driving technology. In cases where a comparable role isn’t available, the company will offer relocation benefits or a severance package.

    Uber acquired the self-driving truck program when it bought the startup Otto in 2016. Otto was co-founded by Anthony Levandowski, the former Waymo engineer who was the subject of a lawsuit between Uber and Waymo over trade secrets Levandowski allegedly stole from Waymo before he left the company. The suit was settled in February.
    https://www.businessinsider.in/Uber-is-ending-its-self-driving-truck-program/articleshow/65205748.cms

    but self driving cars and trucks are the future /s

  7. “The $2.5 trillion reason we can’t rely on batteries to clean up the grid
    “Fluctuating solar and wind power require lots of energy storage, and lithium-ion batteries seem like the obvious choice—but they are far too expensive to play a major role.”
    https://www.technologyreview.com/s/611683/the-25-trillion-reason-we-cant-rely-on-batteries-to-clean-up-the-grid/?utm_source=newsletters&utm_medium=email&utm_content=2018_07_30&utm_campaign=the_download

    And then, of course, there’s the diminishing-returns trouble of continuing with fossil fuel production (last I heard, the main sources of lithium were in the Andes in Bolivia & Argentina — it’s stored & transported in a liquid solution).

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Great article and very current as well. The article talks about the seasonality of wind and solar for California. I made some charts for California and some other sites, and it becomes clear that that year to year fluctuations are huge as well. So storage needs to apply across years. For this to happen, we really need for fossil fuel supply to be subsidized to provide this services. This is part of the true cost of renewables.

  8. xabier says:

    Probably wrong to say ‘uni-sex’? Should it be ‘uni-gender’ or ‘gender non-specific’? Come and visit me in prison when I get sentenced…… 🙂

  9. xabier says:

    The response should have been:

    ‘That will cost too much to change and waste precious resources, Zoe. By the way, ‘slave’ and ‘servant’ are a uni-sex words, and that’s what you will be when resources run out, if you are lucky.’

    Now, have you brushed your teeth today?’

    • jupiviv
      jupiviv says:

      When resources run out, no one can afford slaves or servants, not initially at least.

      • jjohnson3224
        Jim says:

        I have a gun. You are now my slave.

        • jupiviv
          jupiviv says:

          Well either I also have a gun (or something analogous), or I don’t in which case I probably lack any resources you might desire. Slavery doesn’t even enter into the discussion without enough available/potential surplus energy and resources.

          • a slave is like any other machine

            it stops if you don’t have sufficient resources to feed it

            • jupiviv
              jupiviv says:

              Exactly. Slavery only became viable only when some form of surplus energy storage became viable. Human beings didn’t radically alter their nature once agriculture came along and start oppressing each other for fun and profit. They didn’t reject the uncomfortable forms of such oppression when industrialism settled in out of any genuine compunction. Rather, surplus energy allowed naturally greedy and selfish man to express his greed in a way it couldn’t before, and eventually to rationalise his greed and selfishness in a myriad wonderful ways.

              And as Steve from economicundertow.com wrote in one his recent articles: without changing the MAN there is no changing the MANagement. MAN, not money, is the root of all good and evil.

          • xabier says:

            As you should have realised, jupiviv, I was simplifying things for a seven year-old by saying ‘when resources run out.’

            Actually, one can enslave someone by having a pointy wooden stick if they don’t -technically a resource, of course.

    • zenny says:

      Changing the signs is bad for the environment…Why do you hate the planet

  10. Fast Eddy says:

    Pulled into line: girl, seven, gets New Zealand to change sexist road signs
    Letter from Zoe Carew prompts transport authority to change signs from ‘Linemen’ to ‘Line Crew’

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/31/pulled-into-line-girl-7-gets-new-zealand-to-change-sexist-road-signs

    • Rodster says:

      Here in the US some cities have removed road signs that read: “Slow Children At Play”. They think it’s offensive to mentally challenged children, when the real meaning of the sign even if you have 1% of your brain working just means, slow down while you’re driving in this area.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I am going to have some signs made up ‘Speed up – School for the Mentally Re tar d ed Ahead’ … and stick them in the ground near such schools.

  11. John Rofe says:

    Gail, I have enjoyed your comments and those of Euan Mearns for many years. Thank you for your efforts and informative writing.

    I am a retired CMC with extensive international experience in business and organisational change. So I have been accustomed to analysing and reconciling conflicting ideas about technology, performance and progress.

    Perhaps I am not as hard on the scientific community as you because as things have grown more complex over the last 50 years, I have witnessed a drive into ever greater specialisation to cope with that. With greater specialisation comes the silo effect of many people doing in-depth study in a limited area, and often when one study is matched or added to another, the resultant concatenation looks more like a camel rather than the horse we should have expected. That does not mean the individual studies are not useful. But the question of whether we are changing the climate is at best unproven at worst the AGW alarmists are forcing and altering the data to fit the theory and thereby have left it unproven and vulnerable.

    Unless someone is throwing money away on major decisions to try to change the climate, IMHO all we need to do is to wait for 3-5 years and see whether the Earth cools as is to be expected during a Grand Solar Minimum (“GSM”). I find it hard to argue that we are not in one because the raw data supporting that is conclusive. The solar scientists have far more to offer than the climate scientists who favour AGW.

    The side effects of the reduced solar magnetosphere during this GSM are troubling.as history shows greater peturbation of the Earth’s tectonic plates and volcanism has typically occurred at times of minimum solar activity. Rain, hail and extreme droughts are more frequent during a GSM. Corroboration is not causation and while we now have the luxury of data from instruments monitoring solar activity and cosmic ray flux,, there has never been a GSM during modern times. nor has there been one monitored in both Northern and Southern hemispheres. So I am sure at least that the solar scientists will have an exciting time between now and 2030.

    Personally, I think that anyone who tries to reduce human CO2 emissions is a fool because CO2 will be crushed if/when the Earth goes into a cooling phase in any case. Also the deliberate misreporting of the obligations of parties under the 2015 Paris accords shows on the one hand how most emitters plan to emit more and most of those planning to cut emissions are to be held financially hostage to massive USD100 billion to be paid to emerging economies in the vain hope that they will change their errant ways by 2030.

    It is hardly surprising to me that the Russian scientists have known and broadcast estimates that the current GSM will reach its coldest in 2030. Emerging economies are on a win-win and those wanting to reduce CO2 emissions on a lose-lose.

    IMHO there has never been as massive a fraud as the notion that CO2 is evil and must be legislated against. But I feel sure the propensity for human stupidity will mean that even the AGW fraud will be outdone by the end of this century..,

    But who knows? Perhaps I will be proven wrong.

    • Volvo740...
      Volvo740 says:

      If the world stops getting hotter every year I will come back to you and admit that you were right. But when I look at a temperature graph I see no such sign. Do you?

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Turnarounds can occur at unexpected times. Temperature is like prices. Both move in mysterious ways. Some are convinced that they are on one way tracks.

        • Volvo740...
          Volvo740... says:

          I’m sorry. I don’t see the connection between commodity prices and temperature. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_temperature_record

          • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
            Gail Tverberg says:

            Perhaps we should start putting together charts of oil prices and temperatures. See which ones rise faster, or slower.

      • Baby Doomer says:

        You can’t reason with these people because its not really about climate change..Its about pushing back against environmentalist ie humanitarians..Its basically a cult..

    • Ohadi Nacnud says:

      It’s FE deliberately doing DEW attacks. He’ll be in deep trouble when he’s caught:

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      There have been a lot of frauds. Claiming the cost of renewables is equal to the price of wind, solar, or hydroelectric is one of them, without considering the intermittency issue. Makes them look affordable, when they really are not.

  12. Fast Eddy says:

    This won’t be helpful to their tourist industry… https://www.rt.com/news/434677-tajikistan-ramming-cyclistst-terrorist/

    One of the guides during our recent Uzbekky Tour … was telling us Tajekistan is a really strange place… kinda like North Korea but with gas reserves… the leader is a former dentist who has developed an excellent cult of personality….

    Emomali Rahmon marks 25 years as leader of Tajikistan this month, and the state media are using song, verse and even book-readings to boost his cult of personality.

    You Are Worthy, a song performed by a quartet to words ostensibly written by Interior Minister and budding poet Ramazon Rahimzoda, was posted to YouTube and shared widely on pro-Rahmon sites, the Asia-Plus news agency reports.

    The quartet also performed at an anniversary concert attended by the president himself, and their song Leader of the Nation – one component of Mr Rahmon’s elaborate official title – won them a standing ovation.

    Their latest efforts lauds the president as the “king of kings of our times”, attributing the end of the 1992-1997 civil war and current “peace and tranquillity” to Mr Rahmon.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-42082189

    The visa is not so easily obtained for this country…. sounds fascinating …

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Leading poet Kamol Nasrullo has dubbed him the “rising sun of Tajiks’ happiness”, and the country’s second-ranking Muslim cleric, Hajji Husayn Musozoda, has hailed him as the “shadow of God”.

      Shadow of God… who came up with that? That’s absolute genius….

      The MoT needs to hire that guy….

      • xabier says:

        ‘Shadow of Allah Upon Earth’ – sycophantic praise which goes back at least 1300 years to the first Caliphs.

        Ludicrous.

        If anything is the shadow of God on the earth, it is the plume from a volcano, blotting out the sun and killing crops.

  13. Fast Eddy says:

    Had enough reverse racism? I know I have. All this howling about the horror of the white patriarchy. It will be interesting to see how the world gets on when that force of wickedness is finally vanquished. No more annoying string quartets, tedious dental implants, boring brass bushings, or hopeless theories of surplus value. Thank God for that. The unburdened public can finally give its full attention to hair care and dieting. When women and people-of-color fill all the seats in congress we can look forward to the glorious day when the USA is run as well as Baltimore

    http://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/on-the-beach/

  14. Fast Eddy says:

    1:57 mark ….

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyDdhY2k5e4

    So Jessica and Bobby … cooperate to pop out another unneeded mouth onto the planet… and they always wanted a little girl…. but sadly … it’s a boy 🙁

    No problem …. they put little ‘Blaine’ (gender neutral) into a pink room with lots of dollies and girlie stuff…. they dress him in girls clothing…. as he grows they refer to him as her….

    And once he is convinced he is really a she inside a f789ed up body…. and Jessica asks him if he wants The Surgery – the one where they snap off the nuts and drill a hole into his pelvis and slice open his dongle and fashion it into a vageen….. Blaine says yes mommy … yes YES!!!

    And everyone lives happily ever after!!!

    Except for Blaine who remains confused for the rest its life …. looks like a man dressed up like a woman…. cannot find a job…. ends up addicted to drugs to combat the dysfunctionality of its life…. then ends up on the street corner catering to weirdos and misfits who are into this sort of thing… culminating in Blaine purposely snorting a big Fat Rail of Fentanyl….. to put an end to the nightmare….

  15. Fast Eddy says:

    China’s Malthus:

    Hong Liangji

    Zhi Ping Pian and Theory on Population Growth
    Hong’s time experienced one of the fastest expansions of population in Chinese history. With the promotion of New World crops such as corn, Chinese population tripled from 100 million (1651–1661) to 300 million (1790). The population boom resulted in a series of socioeconomically problems, and caused concerns among the Mandarins. In 1791, Qianlong Emperor expressed his worry to the court officials that the resources might not be able to support the growing population. Two years later, Hong published Zhi Ping Pian, the 26th essay of his anthology Opinions (意言).

    In Zhi Ping Pian, Hong points to the tension between the growth of the means of subsistence and the growing population. He writes that the tension would be relieved by disasters, famine, and plagues.

    “Speaking of households, the number of which … there are 20 times more than a hundred years ago … Some people may propose that there would be wild land to cultivate and spare space for housing. But they can only be doubled or tripled, or at most increased five times, whereas the population at the same time could be ten to twenty times larger. Therefore housing and crop fields tend to be in scarcity, while the population tends to be excessive at all time. Given the fact that some households become monopolists, there is no wonder that so many have suffered cold and hunger and even died here and there … How does Heaven deal with the tension? Flood, drought, and pestilence are the means of Heaven to temper the problem.”

    Hong points out that government can mediate the problem by policies like adjusting tax, encouraging colonization, and enhancing the social safety net. However, he expresses his concern about the limits of human policy in addressing such an inherent structural dilemma.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Liangji

  16. Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
    Gail Tverberg says:

    Comments will soon close on this post. I am not yet ready with a new post, thanks to vacationing and mostly working with a small iPad. It works fine for comments, but it is not as good for getting a post into the shape I want it to be. I have a travel computer, but it is not working correctly. I will be returning home tomorrow, so I should be able to finish up in a few days.

  17. Fast Eddy says:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-30/chipotle-stock-slumps-after-ohio-store-closure

    This outbreak comes just days after McDonalds suffered a much larger problem as over 160 customers across 10 states were hit with a parasitic illness.

    Would corporations hire secretive consultants… to carry out attacks on competitors?

    There are plenty of consulting companies staffed with former intelligence operatives who are black ops capable … and who would never under any circumstances divulge their master’s name… in the unlikely even that they were caught.

    Whatever it takes?

    • Ikonoclast says:

      Australia’s position in all this is odd, to say the least. During and just after the Great Recession 2008 – 2009 (or Global Financial Crisis as Australians call it), we sailed through it without too many troubles. Our government of the day adopted a Keynesian stimulus type package (deficit spending). This was possible because our government finances were in good order (little government debt) and our tax base was adequate as well.

      However, a couple of other things propped us up. We had a lot of money from a big resource boom led by China buying a lot of resources from us. We also had a booming residential property market which did not crash, despite the global Great Recession. To this day it hasn’t crashed but it is softening right now. Cheap interest rates and government subsidies for real estate purchases helped. What helped just as much was the amount of (mainly) Chinese money coming into Australia to buy Australian real estate.

      You could say Australia is an ally and military client state of the USA but we are an economic client state of China. Our massive trade with China (resources out / resource money and real estate money coming back in) props up our entire economy. That’s a strange position to be in strategically.

      We are a net food producer but huge swathes of our country are in a prolonged drought, the worst in a century at least. And our weather bureau has declared a 50% chance of an El Nino this (southern) spring. This is the weather pattern that brings drought. Since we are already in the drought of the century, this bodes nothing but ill.

      We are entirely dependent on oil imports. Our own oil production and fields are a tiny joke. We allow Chevron to sell all our very considerable natural gas reserves to China. Chevron makes lots of money on, we get very little of the cut. Meanwhile, domestic gas supplies are short and prices are sky high.

      Australia, has been riding high and seemingly punching above its economic weight for the last 30 years. But when you look at these factors, you see how fragile our position really is. For example, if China goes into recession, if our drought worsens and if something interrupts the oil supply to Australia… That’s a triple whammy which would drive Australia into serious economic trouble.

      We have no strategic oil reserve. Zilch. Yes, that’s right, no oil production worth talking about and no strategic oil reserve laid by. And our best substitute (natural gas) is all being exported to make Chevron and China rich but not Australians. Economists justify this by saying that this situation just shows the comparative benefits of trade (to whom exactly?) and that there’s no assessed risk to the oil trade to Australia. No assessed risk means no assessed need for reserves!

      I guess all we Aussies can do is hope the S doesn’t hit the fan. We are, in fact, very vulnerable. Our economy is a real dome of Leonardo sticks and events only have to pull two sticks out, Oil and China, and it all collapses.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Perhaps NZ needs to build a wall… 🙂

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Australia does still have coal and a lot of mineral resources. Even if Australia feels that it is “above” using coal, it seems like others will want to buy it. Australia needs to make some more alliances.

        • Ikonoclast says:

          In reply to FE,

          Australia and New Zealand don’t need walls. We have moats. In New Zealand’s case you have huge moats. In Australia’s case we also have huge moats except to the north. Indonesia (261 million) and Papua New Guinea (8 million) are uncomfortably close to Australia (25 million). Nevertheless, adequate submarines and an adequate modern air force are likely to be sufficient to deter Indonesia in the near future anyway.

          In reply to GT,

          Australia and the USA are currently re-configuring Australia’s northern defenses. The idea that Australia could unalign from the US or make alliances which the US did not approve of, is a non-starter in Realpolitik terms. We are multiply interlinked with and dependent upon the US for defense. Australia is also extraordinarily useful to the US in the control of the Pacific and even in power projection into the Indian Ocean and Middle East. We bring a lot to the table in that regard.

          The Australian island continent with its positioning and configuration amounts to the largest “unsinkable aircraft carrier” in the world. Politically it is stable and dependable from the US viewpoint. In terms of the Pacific, Australia anchors the entire SW corner of the Pacific. The size and configuration of Australia (geography and demography) actually enhance its suitability for this role.

          Australia’s northern and western coasts provide key ports (Darwin and Perth) for pre-positioning and provisioning US naval and Marine forces. The remote NW coasts and remote hinterlands (beyond the immediate environs of Darwin and Perth) provide perfect places for intelligence gathering and space warfare bases to cover East Asia, China and also the Indian Ocean. If, for example, the USA were to want to interdict sea routes from the M.E. to China then Darwin port and Tindal air base inland are the perfect bases. Interdicted oil tankers could be sent on to refineries in Singapore and elsewhere which supply Australia.

          Australia’s major population centers are on the eastern and southern coasts except for Perth in the extrema south west. The rest of Australia is arid and semi-arid desert or dry savannah except for the northern coasts which are flat, mangrove shores and marshy wetlands. Thus invading Australia from the north and west over great, arid deserts would be a logistical nightmare. However, defending these far-flung coasts is a role for sea and air power.

          Australia hosts NW Cape Space Warfare base (US), Pine Gap Electronic Intelligence and Warfare base, Marines based in Darwin and heavy US Naval and airforce traffic to Darwin and Perth. The Marines presence in Darwin is going to be increased. Australian support units are being moved inland and to Adelaide; in support distance but out of first strike range from S.E. Asia.

          Some say this makes Australia a potential target. In terms of Realpolitik that is nonsense as all small and medium powers are always targets of great powers anyway. Defense alignment is essentially obligatory especially when a geographically large nation anchors a position as an entire strategic cornerstone as Australia does.

          Among other things, the exact shape of decline and/or collapse will be affected by defense issues.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            But what about airplanes…. people might jump on the final flights out before it all comes crashing down….

            I am recommending that all kiwis be provided with shoulder fired anti aircraft missiles….

            • Ikonoclast says:

              LOL, who would want to live in the Shaky Isles? A few good earthquakes and a decent volcano are going to be enough to finish you off. And what if Lake Taupo caldera goes all super-volcano again? Well actually, if the latter, good-bye all world food production for about 10 years. And a super-tsunami will hit the entire Pacific rim.

  18. xabier says:

    As for Iran, the government itself has stated that they will lose 40% of their agricultural land in the short-term, due to exhaustion of water by over-extraction. So sending the Iranians into the fields won’t be the solution!

  19. any body remember when fast eddy said that no species
    can survive in nuclear radiation

    well that was a lie
    Thermococcus gammatolerans is an archaea extremophile and the most radiation-resistant organism known to exist
    tt is the organism with the strongest known resistance to radiation, supporting a radiation of gamma rays from 30,000 gray
    The resistance to ionizing radiation of T. gammatolerans is enormous. While a dose of 5 Gy is sufficient to kill a human, and a dose of 60 Gy is able to kill all cells in a colony of E. coli, Thermococcus gammatolerans can withstand doses of up to 30,000 Gy
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermococcus_gammatolerans

    • Tim Groves – Japan
      Tim Groves says:

      What happens when Thermococcus gammatolerans is exposed to a dose of 30,001 Gy?

      You don’t think the fuel ponds are going to stop radiating once they’ve put out enough to give the little buggers 30,000 Gy, do you?

      • fuel ponds will stop radiating after 500,000 years
        if these organism can survive till that
        they will rule the earth with these species

        The bizarre beasts living in Romania’s poison cave
        Movile Cave has been cut off for millions of years. Its air is thick with harmful gases, yet it is home to an array of strange animals
        The mystery deepened when scientists analysed the water in the cave for radioactive caesium and strontium. The 1986 nuclear accident at Chernobyl had released lots of these metals, which had found their way into the soils and lakes surrounding Movile Cave. However, a 1996 study found no traces of them inside the cave.

        http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20150904-the-bizarre-beasts-living-in-romanias-poison-cave

  20. “The [US] housing market is hot. Prices are up, inventory is down, and the market is active. Many people are starting to become cautious of a “real estate bubble.” The past has revealed many red flags which would indicate a real estate market may very well crash.”

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jordanlulich/2018/07/28/red-flags-that-indicate-a-real-estate-market-crash/#d0cda16792e7

    • “It’s confession time among the Detroit automakers: GM, Fiat Chrysler, and Ford all got ugly, in unison, in one day, something we haven’t seen since the Financial Crisis.”

      https://www.businessinsider.com/detroit-auto-industry-suffering-in-way-not-seen-since-financial-crisis-2018-7?IR=T

      • “Credit-rating companies such as Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s have recently warned that this surge in corporate borrowing and lending has led to a noticeable decline in the quality of the loans. The borrowers have lower credit ratings. The loans contain fewer of the standard conditions that are meant to protect lenders. And the rating companies calculate that lenders should expect to recover less of their money if the borrowers default or go into bankruptcy.

        “For the most part, however, these warnings have gone unheeded…”

        https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-finance/the-junk-debt-that-tanked-the-economy-its-back-in-a-big-way

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          At some point, this will come home to roost. Higher commodity prices could be the stressor.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        When things don’t go well for the auto industry, layoffs start not long after. This quarter is likely worse.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I think that this statement from the article is important:

      Professor Mason Gaffney characterized the cycle perfectly by commenting that “Bank credit swells and shrinks in synch with the land cycle… buyers need more credit to purchase land; the appreciated land than serves as collateral for more bank loans.”

      As long as interest rates were falling, it was possible to pump up land prices higher and higher. When interest rates rise, the party ends.

  21. “The collapse of the seventh-smallest of South Africa’s 21 banks has left a trail of destruction, with customers queuing up outside branches before dawn in the hope of accessing their funds. Like Mulalo Ramano, a 72-year-old widow who’s suffered anxiety attacks fretting about the R20 000 life savings she deposited at the bank.”

    https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/south-africa/sas-biggest-bank-heist-leaves-trail-of-destruction/

  22. “With the Bank of Japan ending a two-day meeting on Tuesday, the Federal Reserve concluding its meeting on Wednesday and the Bank of England expected to raise interest rates on Thursday, investors are preparing for a busy week that could set the near-term course for currencies.”

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-global-forex/big-week-for-currency-markets-as-central-banks-meet-idUKKBN1KK00O

    “Emerging market governments and companies have borrowed heavily in dollars, and their debt repayment burdens are rising.”

    https://gulfnews.com/business/sectors/markets/emerging-markets-in-trade-war-crossfire-face-deepening-policy-conundrum-1.2258422

    • “After more than a year of aggressively cracking down on dangerously high debt levels, China’s cabinet on Monday said it would be more “active” in stimulating the economy, citing “external uncertainties”. But the IMF said “a reversion to credit-driven stimulus would further increase vulnerabilities that could eventually lead to an abrupt adjustment”.”

      https://financialtribune.com/articles/world-economy/90654/imf-warns-china-against-aggressive-economic-stimulus

      • The manufacturing and construction boom that powered China’s economy, fuelling demand for heavy machinery, is winding down, and Shenyang Machine has posted losses every year since 2013… The workers are oblivious to the company’s $78m loan from Bank of Shengjing, the largest regional lender in Liaoning province, whose capital city is Shenyang. But the nexus between lossmaking companies and regional banks has emerged as a key risk to China’s economy, where an explosion of debt since the global financial crisis has sparked warnings from the IMF and other watchdogs.”

        https://www.ft.com/content/24e2a368-7b4b-11e8-bc55-50daf11b720d

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Keeping all of the banks afloat will be a problem.

        • John Doyle – Seeker of truth in a world of falsehoods
          John Doyle says:

          I wouldn’t be too worried about China’s debts. In a command economy like theirs they can buy any debt they like and delete it either by paying off the lender of telling them to wear the loss. China’s problem is keeping people in work, hence the empty cities.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Caterpillar posts record second-quarter profit, raises forecast

          The big machinery exporter also says it would offset a sizable second-half profit hit from the tariffs by raising prices.

          Caterpillar bumped up its full-year profit forecast to a range of $11 per share to $12 per share.

          https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/30/caterpillar-earnings-q2-2018.html

          • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
            Gail Tverberg says:

            Caterpillar seems to make a lot of oil drilling equipment. Higher oil prices helps that. Higher oil prices and tariffs also encourages countries to grow more of their own food. This would seem to also help Caterpillar.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        But the IMF said “a reversion to credit-driven stimulus would further increase vulnerabilities that could eventually lead to an abrupt adjustment”.”

        I am sure it will eventually…. but it won’t be because China at some point decides to not push on the gas pedal…. which is what is implied…. if anything they will push the pedal to the floor at some point …

        The concern arises… when the push … and the car continues to slow….

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Worrisome!

    • Fast Eddy says:

      “Emerging market governments and companies have borrowed heavily in dollars, and their debt repayment burdens are rising.”

      That is a big concern…..

  23. “Iran’s currency hit a record low on Sunday of 100,000 rials to the dollar amid a deepening economic crisis and the imminent return of full US sanctions.

    “The unofficial rate stood at 102,000 rials by midday, according to Bonbast, one of the most reliable sites for tracking the Iranian currency.

    “The rate was confirmed by a trader who spoke on condition of anonymity to AFP.

    “The rial has lost half its value against the dollar in just four months, having broken through the 50,000-mark for the first time in March.”

    https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/banking-finance/irans-rial-hits-record-low-100000-to-US-dollar

    • “Of the 20 funds paying pension to retirees in Iran, 18 are bankrupt, a member of Majlis Social Commission said. Rasoul Khezri added that all the pension providers in Iran are in a state of bankruptcy, with the exception of Social Security Fund and, to some extent, the Central Bank Pension Fund, ICCIMA’s news portal reported.”

      https://financialtribune.com/articles/economy-business-and-markets/90640/90-percent-of-iranian-pension-funds-bankrupt

      • “Nigeria failed the test conducted to determine its ability to sustain ongoing borrowings and their repayments in the next five and 10 years, an affirmation of the growing fears over increasing level of borrowings and huge costs incurred in servicing them.”

        https://allafrica.com/stories/201807300084.html

        • “Prices and inflation are rising so fast [in Venezuela] that the highest denomination bank notes emitted in 2016 are already practically worthless. The biggest of those, 100,000 bolivars, would have bought five kilograms of rice in 2017, now it’s barely enough for a single cigarette. “If inflation continues at 100 percent a month,” the new 500 bolivar note, which will be the largest following the currency redenomination on August 20, “will be obsolete by December,” said economist Leonardo Vera.”

          http://www.france24.com/en/20180729-stripping-zeros-not-answer-save-venezuelan-economy-say-analysts

          • Fast Eddy says:

            In 2015, the total of electricity production reaches 117 TWh, of which 64% comes from hydro, 19% from gas and 17% from oil

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_Venezuela

            I was wondering how they kept the lights on … but I guess so long as they can afford to maintain the hydro plants including paying for spare parts (using oil revenue – USD)…. then we won’t get our first example of a totally collapsed country for some time.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              I know that hydro has been a problem because it is so variable from year to year. Having 64% of electricity from hydro makes it impossible to have a stable economy, unless total hydro production is far higher than the portion used. In that case, the variable portion can be exported. Otherwise, more balancing is needed.

              There were many articles in 2016 about drought being a major contributor to Venezuela’s energy crisis. The situation seems to be less bad since then.

        • John Doyle – Seeker of truth in a world of falsehoods
          John Doyle says:

          Iran, using its own money can fund pensions without needing taxes. That money is an internal matter for the nation and does not affect the external sector unless all hell breaks loose, which is unlikely for pensions. Although if pensions stop then maybe all hell will break loose.

          • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
            Gail Tverberg says:

            The money still needs to buy goods and services. At some point this becomes a problem.

            • John Doyle – Seeker of truth in a world of falsehoods
              John Doyle says:

              If the people exist then it’s not a problem. They can be paid to grow food. They may not get fat but they will not see food they cannot buy, which will be the case if there is no pension.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              Growing food requires a whole lot of prerequisites. The soil must be adequately fertile. There needs to be adequate water. Food must be used where it is grown, unless transportation is available to some other place. Cooking supplies generally are needed to make it edible. Tools are needed, unless a person is willing to poke with a stick. Seeds or come other starter for plants are needed. If there is a plan to store food until later, this generally requires considerable energy supplies (refrigeration, canning, storing dry away from rodents, etc.). Knowledge of how to do all of these things is essential as well.

              Older people are not necessarily sufficiently strong to so the heavy labor needed for growing food, if no labor saving devices are available.

            • John Doyle – Seeker of truth in a world of falsehoods
              John Doyle says:

              Twas ever thus no? I mean growing food for your family is a low tech endeavour, and there will be plenty of hands around to do the work. Cuba seems to be managing. It’s much more likely the way of the future in post apocalypse days to come.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              Cuba imports a large share of its food—-roughly 60% to 70%. The reason Cuba has been trying to obtain better ties with the US seems to be to encourage tourism. This might help offset its lack of goods to export.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              My ex-neighbours were big on self sustaining food production …. however they used pumps for irrigation …

              But one other comment they made…. they have tried various seeds and tried to save them … without much success.. they said that most of the time the seeds did not germinate….

              So they don’t even bother … it’s cheap and hassle free to do this https://www.kingsseeds.co.nz/

              I’ll bet my bottom dollar that this is what most organic growers are doing ….

              So that sub 1% of all ag land globally that is being farmed organically…. gets whittled down dramatically when the irrigation pumps stop feeding the sprinklers…. and the seed suppliers no longer supply…

              If there were not spent fuel ponds then I would expect remote tribes would survive the end of BAU….

              But DPs … no way …. there would be so few that are viable … and so many wanting to eat…. all it takes is a few family and friends to show up (never mind the hordes) … and you suddenly don’t have enough to go around….

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Paying does not fix this :

              Soil that is farmed using petro-chemical inputs — will support no crop once the additives are stopped – without years of intensive rejuvenation involving organic inputs

              Effect of Pesticides on soil fertility (beneficial soil microorganisms)

              Heavy treatment of soil with pesticides can cause populations of beneficial soil microorganisms to decline. According to the soil scientist Dr. Elaine Ingham, “If we lose both bacteria and fungi, then the soil degrades. Overuse of chemical fertilizers and pesticides have effects on the soil organisms that are similar to human overuse of antibiotics.

              Indiscriminate use of chemicals might work for a few years, but after awhile, there aren’t enough beneficial soil organisms to hold onto the nutrients” (Savonen, 1997). For example, plants depend on a variety of soil microorganisms to transform atmospheric nitrogen into nitrates, which plants can use. Common landscape herbicides disrupt this process: triclopyr inhibits soil bacteria that transform ammonia into nitrite (Pell et al., 1998); glyphosate reduces the growth and activity of free-living nitrogen-fixing bacteria in soil (Santos and Flores, 1995) and 2,4-D reduces nitrogen fixation by the bacteria that live on the roots of bean plants (Arias and Fabra, 1993; Fabra et al., 1997), reduces the growth and activity of nitrogen-fixing blue-green algae (Singh and Singh, 1989; Tözüm-Çalgan and Sivaci-Güner, 1993), and inhibits the transformation of ammonia into nitrates by soil bacteria (Frankenberger et al., 1991, Martens and Bremner, 1993).

              Mycorrhizal fungi grow with the roots of many plants and aid in nutrient uptake. These fungi can also be damaged by herbicides in the soil. One study found that oryzalin and trifluralin both inhibited the growth of certain species of mycorrhizal fungi (Kelley and South, 1978). Roundup has been shown to be toxic to mycorrhizal fungi in laboratory studies, and some damaging effects were seen at concentrations lower than those found in soil following typical applications (Chakravarty and Sidhu, 1987; Estok et al., 1989). Triclopyr was also found to be toxic to several species of mycorrhizal fungi (Chakravarty and Sidhu, 1987) and oxadiazon reduced the number of mycorrhizal fungal spores (Moorman, 1989).

              https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2984095/

              Organic inputs will be hard to come by considering nothing can be grown – and most if not all animals are killed and eaten.

              Less than 1% of all farmland globally is farmed organically.

              Get ready to starve. No matter where you are:

              https://assets.weforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/agriculture3.png

              https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/08/which-countries-have-the-most-organic-agricultural-land/ (note – most organic land in Australia is rubbish and supports sheep only)

            • John Doyle – Seeker of truth in a world of falsehoods
              John Doyle says:

              I know all that. But it’s possible not all of Iran has poisoned soils. Even here we can garden well enough most of the time. They will certainly try. I don’t say it’s a sure thing, but it’s obvious they will try. Like Cuba.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              How many gardens do you know that have pump-free irrigation … and are completely organic?

              Cuba never collapsed. They still had electricity — which is useful for moving water to where it is needed.

            • John Doyle – Seeker of truth in a world of falsehoods
              John Doyle says:

              Most

            • Fast Eddy says:

              John …. you should be an MMA consultant….

              Here is your first client http://www.intertek.com/contact/americas/venezuela/

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Sounds like the direction a lot of other pension plans are headed.

  24. Fast Eddy says:

    While we wait on Duncan….

    Let’s consider the issue of terrorism…

    I am working off the assumption that there are real terrorists… who despise America/Israel … even though many of these terrorists are being funded/armed by the CIA… I will continue to work off of the assumption that this is not a massive false flag….

    We know that there are plenty of shoulder launch missiles available around the world… I was driving into Queenstown yesterday and an aircraft was taking off flying over the lake and I was thinking … so easy for a motivated person to drop one of these… one could even hit it with a high powered rifle…

    But despite their being many thousands of airports around the world … most without particularly high levels of security…. nobody even tries…

    Obviously if a few planes were targeted — even if they were not dropped — this could seriously impact the airline and tourism industry…. this could seriously damage the global economy….

    Then there is the issue of fire… it would not be difficult to take down buildings … or burn up forests and houses…. and a concerted campaign by say a dozen motivated individuals … could also wreck the economy….

    Let’s visit Wall St…. how difficult would it be for angry people to go after the people that work here… instead of a cinema… a busy eatery at lunch? Morning rush hour…. remember the Mumbai attacks… something like that… force them to lock down the entire area every day…. and then what about picking out some top guys…. and following them… knock out a couple … again … serious repercussions in terms of the optics…

    I could go on and on ….

    So why do these things never happen?

    If I can think of them … surely an angry person could come up with this … and more….

    I cannot think of a reason why nobody tries such things on …. nothing truly damaging to BAU is ever attempted..

    It did cross my mind that we are simply avatars in a digital game…. and that there are rules that the players must abide by…. and one of the rules is that they cannot instruct their avatars to do anything extreme that would result in the board being tipped over….

    I am open to other suggestions….

    Meanwhile… Duncan….. when can we expect you to come back to use re The Pause?

    • Ohadi Nacnud says:

      Most people are hypnotised by reality shows and TV soap operas. If they’re not happy, they go to the doctor for drugs to make them even more of a zombie, so they can forget why they’re not happy. As for politics, the state occasionally has to step in with a fictional terror story so that the zombies believe what they ought to. The official story of the murder of Labour MP Jo Cox during the Brexit campaign is full of holes:

      https://youtu.be/HEIoLftYYLM

      • Fast Eddy says:

        However we have seen loan gunmen (see Toronto last week) … take a few shots at crowds…. surely they could come up with something more exciting than that

        • Tim Groves – Japan
          Tim Groves says:

          You have to remember that West Yorkshire is a good deal less racy than Toronto. Excitement in Batley is when the local rugby club the Batley Bulldogs wins the Championship Cup.

          If the motive here was to swing enough votes to defeat Brexit, I’d say it was probably counter-productive, as the net result was to give a good segment of the usually apathetic “ordinary decent silent majority” of population enough suspicion that this might have been a political dirty trick by the establishment to get them to come out and vote.

      • Tim Groves – Japan
        Tim Groves says:

        Fascinating! Thanks for posting this.

        Do we have another patsy framed for an assassination?
        Have the Sandbaggers been at it yet again?

    • Yoshua says:

      The RAND corporation thought about the terror threat and came to a solution: Open war theaters in the MENA (Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Libya) that will work like terrorist magnets. Jihadists from all over the world will flock to these holy wars and that will ease the terror pressure on the West. Call some of the fighters rebels, freedom fighters or moderates. Arm the rebels and pour in drugs. A war scen is always complicated and chaotic so by accident even the hard core radicals will be armed. Enjoy the show…until the war hardened men return back to their home lands.

      • aaaa says:

        Then Putin and Erdogan totally outsmarted the West, and Europe will now be transformed radically, forever. Maybe it’s just as well.

    • Trousers says:

      It occurred to me that there are many softer targets that could create real economic chaos. There was a fierce fire in a scrap yard under a motorway flyover a couple of years ago. It weakened the bridge and shut that part of the M1 for weeks. It occurred to me then, how difficult would it be to bring down half a dozen motorway bridges around London?

      Maybe the terrorists don’t have much capacity for imaginative thinking?

  25. Fast Eddy says:

    Rideshare companies have a huge competitive advantage: They’re losing enormous amounts of money, and their investors like it that way and reward them – or rather themselves – with lavish valuations. In fact, investors are eager for feed them more billions to burn through, and thus they eagerly subsidize each ride.

    Rideshare companies also have the advantage in many jurisdictions of not being regulated as taxi enterprises, and thus are able to dodge some expenses and rules.

    https://wolfstreet.com/2018/07/29/the-numbers-are-in-uber-lyft-versus-rental-cars-and-taxis-in-the-us-in-q2/

    https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/US-rideshare-taxis-rental-cars-for-business-travel-2018-q2.png

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I had my first Uber ride on Friday. It worked well, but the fare I paid looked to be totally inadequate for the time and resources involved. And the college student who gave me a ride said, “Oh, you don’t need to give me a tip.” I did anyhow. My daughter insisted on using Uber. She said that with the App, it is possible for the driver to see where you are going, and decide whether that is a place the driver wants to go.

      The same day, our son sent a text message that he had called a taxi, but couldn’t get one. Eventually, he called his brother, who came to pick him up. With Uber and Lyft becoming so predominant, it can be hard to get a taxi.

      • Rodster says:

        I talked to a couple of Uber and Lyft drivers and they said that the only way they make money is when they have several share rides in the same car. It’s kind of like pizza delivery, you make more as a driver if you are delivering pizzas to more than one stop on your route.

        A side note, some Taxi Medallion drivers in NYC are committing suicide because of Uber and Lyft competition. They have seen their $300,000-$1,000,000 dollar medallion license investment drop by 80-85% in value while still having to pay the original loan value. A license that used to cost $300,000+ can now be had for $45,000 or less.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        They don’t pay any registration fees… and as far as I know they do not take commercial auto insurance (which means if they get into an accident with a paid passenger… they/you are not covered)….

        So their rates are reflective of these lower operating costs.

  26. Fast Eddy says:

    I was wondering what ever happened to this politician … so I googled him… and was reading the intro when I just about choked on my tongue….

    Some people will go to great lengths to ingratiate themselves with the El ders….

    Rae was raised as an Anglican. As an adult, he found out that his paternal grandfather was J
    ewish, and was from a family of Lithuanian immigrants to Scotland.[

    Rae learned of his family’s J ewish origins in 1968. The revelation had a strong impact on him: he sought to explore his J ewish culture, dated J ewish girls exclusively and ultimately married a J
    ewish woman.[11] Upon his marriage to Arlene Perly Rae, Rae agreed to raise his children in his wife’s J ewish faith.[12] Rae is a member of Holy Blossom Temple, a Reform J ewish congregation in Toronto.[13]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Rae#Family

    And after this performance Benny said to Stephen – jump Stephen…. like this Benny? … No Stephen .. I want you to jump higher… like this Benny? …. Stephen I know you are do better …. try again —- is this good enough Benny? Very good Stephen… very good

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ByzcL3jhb5Y

    I notice Maurice Strong was a good buddy with Rothschild… then he became very wealthy…

    • zenny says:

      That is a good song for the guests. He is a funny guy I had a meal with him and his wife I liked his wife even more than him. Sure was better than the guy we have now.

  27. let see what ted cruz said about other issues

    On abortion, Cruz is “strongly pro-life” and “would allow the procedure only when a pregnancy endangers the mother’s life- stupid statement with no data

    Cruz opposes the legalization of marijuana- another stupid statment

    Cruz proposed the abolition of the IRS and the implementation of a flat tax “where the average American can fill out taxes on a postcard- stupid economic idea

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Are you trying to make a point? If so I am not seeing it

      Oh hang on … you are trying to convince me that you are clueless… no need… I can see that

      • my point is just because he is genius in climate sci that
        does not mean he very intelligent politician

        and you talking about that i am clueless person
        remember when you said that no species can survive nuclear radiation
        then i show you Tardigrade can Survive anything

        so fast eddy you also a clueless person just like 7.6 billion homo sapiens

        • Fast Eddy says:

          I am sure there are plenty of topics one could raise with Mr Cruz … for example … complex mathematical formulas…. or the physics of aeronautical engineering….

          And he would be clueless…

          But with respect to The Ho ax…. he has tied the Sierra Club up in knots…. he has … with just a few questions — exposed The Ho ax…. and the Sierra boys and their lawyers know it.

          Funny how this never made the MSM.

          Afterall … the MSM is tasked with presenting the truth and informing us (sarc)

  28. Baby Doomer says:

    How sustainable is Permian tight oil growth?

    “Reservoir issues could begin to manifest as sweet spots become exhausted. Taking into account some bearish assumptions, if future wells tap more difficult rocks, and are not offset by continued technology evolution, the Permian may peak in 2021.” – Robert Clarke

    http://www.ogfj.com/articles/print/volume-14/issue-11/features/how-sustainable-is-permian-tight-oil-growth.html

  29. Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
    Ed says:

    https://imgur.com/a/guHzwKM
    from NASA data labeled GLB.Ts+dSST.cvs

  30. Fast Eddy says:

    Re that last post….

    What does the remind me of…..

    Ah right…. the usual tactics for dealing with a whistelblower… smear… attack… discredit… lie….

    Funny how the Green Groopie Leftist Hippie Commies on FW …. who normally abhor this sort of thing….

    Are lining up to support it.

    As has been pointed out… there is no cure for Stuuuupidity

  31. Fast Eddy says:

    A KKlimate Scientist Is Smeared for Blowing the Whistle on ‘Corrected’ Data

    The scandal is growing, as Congress investigates and NOAA brings in outside experts to review a key study.

    Hawaii Republicans, Once Near Extinction, Prepare a Comeback

    This Day in Liberal Judicial Activism—July 29

    Undue Deference

    Understanding Trade Deficits

    Off the Shelf: Doom and the Dismal Science

    This Day in Liberal Judicial Activism—July 28

    How Willmoore Kendall Prefigured Donald Trump’s Conservative Populism

    Sir Roger Scruton on What It Means to Be a Conservative

    Reinvigorating the Liberal Arts Matters More than Free Speech on Campus

    Six Miscarriages of Justice in Winona, Miss.

    Who Cares about Truth Anymore, Anyway?

    Twitter Stock Falls 20 Percent Following Fake-Account Purge

    NYT Seeks Emails Sent by Kavanaugh’s Wife Containing ‘Gay,’ ‘Abortion’

    Philadelphia Will Block ICE from Accessing Arrest Database

    My Collusion Confusion

    Republicans Vote to Gut Enforcement, Increase Foreign Workers

    More articles
    Previous articles

    POLITICS & POLICY
    A Climate Scientist Is Smeared for Blowing the Whistle on ‘Corrected’ Data
    By JULIE KELLY
    February 15, 2017 10:18 PM

    Less than 72 hours after a federal whistleblower exposed shocking misconduct at a key U.S. xxxx agency, the CEO of the nation’s top scientific group was already dismissing the matter as no biggie.

    On February 7, Rush Holt, head of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), told a congressional committee that allegations made by a high-level xxxxx scientist were simply an “internal dispute between two factions” and insisted that the matter was “not the making of a big scandal.” (This was moments after Holt lectured the committee that science is “a set of principles dedicated to discovery,” and that it requires “humility in the face of evidence.” Who knew?)

    Three days earlier, on February 4, John Bates, a former official with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) — he was in charge of that agency’s xxxx-data archive — posted a lengthy account detailing how a 2015 report on xxxxx was mishandled.

    In the blog xxxx Etc., Bates wrote a specific and carefully sourced 4,100-word exposé that accuses Tom Karl, his ex-colleague at NOAA, of influencing the results and release of a crucial paper that purports to refute the pause in xxxxxx.

    Karl’s study was published in Science in June 2015, just a few months before world leaders would meet in Paris to agree on a costly xxxxx change pact; the international media and xxxxx activists cheered Karl’s report as the final word disproving the xxxxxxx pause.

    But Bates, an acclaimed expert in atmospheric sciences who left NOAA last year, says there’s a lot more to the story.

    left NOAA last year, says there’s a lot more to the story. He reveals that “in every aspect of the preparation and release of the datasets, . . . we find Tom Karl’s thumb on the scale pushing for, and often insisting on, decisions that maximize warming.”

    Karl’s report was “an effort to discredit the notion of a xxxxxx hiatus and rush to time the publication of the paper to influence national and international deliberations on xxxxx policy.” Agency protocol to properly archive data was not followed, and the computer that processed the data had suffered a “complete failure,” according to Bates. In a lengthy interview published in the Daily Mail the next day, Bates said:

    They had good data from buoys. And they threw it out and “corrected” it by using the bad data from ships. You never change good data to agree with bad, but that’s what they did — so as to make it look as if the sea was warmer.

    Instead of taking these claims with the level of scrutiny and seriousness they deserve, most in the scientific establishment quickly moved to damage-control mode. In more testimony to the House Science Committee last week, Holt pulled one sentence from an article published in an environmental journal that morning, quoting Bates as saying, “The issue here is not an issue of tampering with the data but rather really of timing a release of a paper that had not properly disclosed everything it was.” (I guess that alone isn’t enough to raise any red flags in xxxxx
    science.)

    Holt went on to tell the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, which has been investigating the Karl study since 2015, that “all [Bates] is doing is calling out a former colleague for not following agency standards.” This man of science intentionally overlooked the damning charges in Bates’s own post to search out a tiny nugget in a biased article.

    Apparently, discovery and humility in the face of evidence are valid only when they result in politically desirable outcomes.

    I asked the AAAS (which publishes Science, where the Karl study first appeared) why the head of their organization selected that one quote and failed to address the other issues Bates had raised: not vetting experimental data, failing to meet agency standards, and rushing to publish the report.

    Science editor in chief Jeremy Berg told me that Holt’s statement to Congress “was consistent with impressions from other private communications that had been conveyed to Holt” (emphasis added). Apparently, discovery and humility in the face of evidence are valid only when they result in politically desirable outcomes; impressions and feelings carry more weight otherwise.

    It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the AAAS and Science are trying to downplay the conflict. Bates says that Science violated its own policy for archiving and making data available when it published the Karl study. The policy states that xxxxxdata should be archived in the NOAA climate repository or other public databases.” Bates maintains that there is an urgent need for a “systematic change . . . to scientific publishing.”

    The science media also went into overdrive to twist Bates’s words and allegations.

    Science ran its own article on February 8, with the headline “How a culture clash at NOAA led to a flap over a high-profile xxx pause study.” The magazine suggests that Bates’s actions are due to a personal grudge.

    In a post on his website RealClimate, climatologist Gavin Schmidt downplayed the scandal as a “NOAA-thing burger” and accused Bates of adding “obviously wrong claims to his litany” and of “let[ting] his imagination run beyond what he could actually show.”

    And in a completely misleading article, a climate blogger for The Guardian claimed that Bates feared that xxxxx “deniers” would misuse his information (although Bates did not say that). The Guardian blogger also lamented that “consumers of biased right-wing news outlets that employ faux science journalists were grossly misinformed by alternative facts and fake news.”

    More https://www.nationalreview.com/2017/02/john-bates-whistleblower-c
    limate-scientist-smeared-g
    lobal-w
    arming-advocates/

    • somebody’s been spreading fake news about me

      ive just had the JWitnesses at my door

      I demand to know who in OFW is responsible for sending them

      • Mark says:

        8 wealthy men in Warwik, NY sent them.
        I was in that cult and managed to exit. Burning down my cognitive dissidence eventually lead me to OFW.
        Just tell them ‘I’d rather have questions I can’t answer, than answers I can’t question.’

        • lol

          oddly enough i told them exactly that, that they had been sent by a bunch of control freaks in New York—and that all religions were started by male control freaks, and had they considered that—i don’t think they had

          they really can’t handle the truth.

          Two nice girls though—I wouldn’t have minded if they had decided to get violent to convert me to their point of view—I usually get 2 old geezers

          would’ve made my day

          i must remember your questions line tho—i like that

          • Fast Eddy says:

            If they truly believe in their cause…. and they really want to save you ……

            Surely … surely …. they would do … whatever it takes…..

            If you present it this way …. they might See The Light….

            And if that does work tell them Fast Eddy could use some saving … now and then….

            • i suggested they come back regularly because our governments had said we need to make regular savings

              i think they thought i was some kind of perv

              anyway i always thought Mrs Fast handled your personal savings account

      • Fast Eddy says:

        My father was very good at dealing with them …

        I recall they showed up once and we were scraping and painting windows…

        They asked if they could run their spiel… and he said …. yes of course… but first we have to finish the windows… here are some extra scrapers… if you can just help finish this I’ll be happy to listen…

        Of course they left (you see the same thing in Haiti — all talk from these religious nuts…. but they never pick up a shovel…)

        I have my own way of dealing with these people…. Hong Kong – 15 years ago or so — big night out at the disco … on the sofa dribbling into the pillow in deep REM …. bonk bonk bonk…. (please go away)… bonk bong BONK BONK BONK!!! (f789)…..

        Open the door — there’s this dweeby guy and a dorky girl … introduce themselves ask if they can come and and talk to me about JW….

        My head turns purple… the gaskets strain…. the pistons glow red…. WHO THE F789 LET YOU IN HERE!!! I WILL CALL THE POLICE ON YOU… GET THE F789 OUT…. GET OUT!!! and so on….

        Retrospectively …. I should have allowed the dorky girl to visit…. I am sure I could have found something for her to do as a trade off for getting a shot at indoctrinating me…. and it would not have involved scraping windows….

  32. Baby Doomer says:

    Gail someone posted this link showing Texas oil production falling off a cliff? Not sure what to think?

    https://www.upstreamdb.com/texas

    • Baby Doomer says:

      Here is their homepage..At the very bottom there are links to all the oil producing regions..They are very detailed..If these are true that would mean shale has peaked

      https://www.upstreamdb.com/

    • Baby Doomer says:

      Their data for Alaska is right on point

      https://www.upstreamdb.com/alaska

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Different states seem to report oil data differently. North Dakota state oil data is like Alaska oil data, in that initial estimates are pretty much the right number. This is not true in Texas.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Two issues I am aware of:

      (1) Data for recent time periods is very incomplete, because of the way reporting procedures in Texas work. This is probably the primary problem.

      (2) There is a pipeline capacity problem in Texas. For this reason, production cannot really rise for Texas. I think December is the target date for getting this problem fixed.

      So I doubt that the data is as alarming as it looks. EIA weekly supply estimates show US total crude oil production continuing to rise, so whatever problem there is does not seem to be impacting the total by much.

  33. Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
    Ed says:

    Texas, I am getting excited about 6 TW of PV on the ground covering a circle with a radius of 120km supported by a mirror in geo-statiionary orbit of the same radius. With a launch cost of 6 trillion the same as the cost of the ground PV 6 trillion. A complete 24 hours per day system for the U.S. at a cost of 12 trillion. Big question is the life time of the mirrors. We can use 30 years for the PV silicon cells, 60 years for the mounts and stands.

    • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
      Ed says:

      The full military budget would cover this and as the military will no longer be needed…

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      It is the weakest link that is important, not the robust piece of equipment. It is the wiring that is important. Birds like to nest in the wires, if I remember correctly what Pedro Prieto said. There is often equipment to turn commercial over panels the right direction. This can have a problem as well. If new parts of any kind are needed, roads and good international trade are required to fix the problems.

      Of course, transmission lines are critical. These are often repaired using helicopters. This is also true of wind turbines. While this can partly solve the road repairs problem, it leads to a need for the correct liquid fuel for the helicopters.

  34. Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
    Ed says:

    Texas, Texas, Texas, let’s talk storage.

  35. kulmthestatusquo
    kulmthestatusquo says:

    There is a positive, not frequently mentioned effect of mass murder.

    After a mass death, the harvest next year tends to be quite plentiful.

    In 1948, South Korea had a massive genocide of the people of Cheju island because they were leaning towards the communist side. No one has the definite number but at least 20,000 were killed in the island of then 200,000.

    But, the historians do not record that because most of the bodies were buried on farmlands, the spots where the blood and human matters were splattered grew a very bountiful harvest, and the potatoes and other crops grew much bigger in the island well known for its poor soil.

    Some will win, and some will lose, in the game of life. But, 7 billion plus bodies are going to provide a lot of fertilisers for barren soil for quite a long time.

    Norman is right. All of the medieval farmings were done with just wood and livestock. No fossil fuels back then. A lot of the land will be dead, but quite a critical amount of land could be reclaimed by the methods I described above.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      You can bury all the bodies you want on a piece of land that was farmed with petro chemicals…

      There will be no harvest the next year — without the petro chemical inputs

      I am not making this stuff up

      • Rodster says:

        Correct, soil has been turned into an Agri-Junkie. The problem is that those chemicals are ruining the soil so that in a few years nothing will grow.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Mother N will eventually fix it…. but we’ll be long gone….

          Duncan… still waiting on your reply re: The Pause question….

          If you read about the cover up as exposed by the Edward Snowden of KKkklmate Science…. surely you would recognize — as did the head of the Sierra Club —- that this is one hell of a Pandora’s box to open up…..

          He would know full well that there was a cover up… he would know full well that if he disputed The Pause…. that he expose himself to perjury …. he would also open the door to Cruz to go on the attack (you can see that Cruz smells blood in the water… but the Sierra guy was unwilling to engage… because he knew that was a no win situation …)

          I hate to put words in your mouth Duncan…. Do you disagree with the above?

          Feel free to give me your version – silence = acknowledgement of DelusisTANI citizenship…. and we all know what that means….

          A Fast Eddy sponsored one way Bus Ticket to an endless vacation in ……

          Delusssssssiiiiii… STAN!

          https://i.pinimg.com/736x/55/58/94/555894371400ffc1bc16cb12df2f04bb.jpg

          • Fast Eddy says:

            A KKKKKlimate Scientist Is Smeared for Blowing the Whistle on ‘Corrected’ Data

            https://www.nationalreview.com/2017/02/john-bates-whistleblower-c
            limate-sc
            ientist-smeared-g
            lobal-wa
            rming-advocates/

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Excerpt:

              Three days earlier, on February 4, John Bates, a former official with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) — he was in charge of that agency’s xxxxx-data archive — posted a lengthy account detailing how a 2015 report on xxxxxx was mishandled. In the blog xxxxxEtc.,

              Bates wrote a specific and carefully sourced 4,100-word exposé that accuses Tom Karl, his ex-colleague at NOAA, of influencing the results and release of a crucial paper that purports to refute the pause in xxxxxxx.

              Karl’s study was published in Science in June 2015, just a few months before world leaders would meet in Paris to agree on a costly xxxxxx change pact; the international media and xxxxx activists cheered Karl’s report as the final word disproving the xxxxxxx pause.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              So here’s the deal…

              The info that Cruz put in front of Sierra Guy…. about The Pause …. is real… because it is referencing the info that John Bates claims was replaced by fake data.

              Sierra Guy was aware that the data is fake — that the real data was covered up.

              But he would tread on dangerous ground to disagree with Cruz…. so he did not dispute what he knew to be true – the actual data indicate a Pause.

              Instead he just blathered on about 97%… and refused to answer the questions.

              How am I doing here Duncan?

              Are you with me so far?

              You can throw in the towel at any time….

              I know you are pre paid that NYT subscription for the rest of the year but it is not a total waste… you could use it to start your fire…. or wrap up fish…. or best of all … when you take the dog for a walk use it to pick up his feces….

  36. Tim Groves – Japan
    Tim Groves says:

    This is a fascinating take on the man who sold the world on globbly wobbly.

    Life and Times: Maurice Strong—A CBS hagiography of the oil baron, environmental crusader and international fixer

    https://youtu.be/fhkxC1Q2FNU

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Thanks — while I am watching perhaps Duncan can take some time and think up a ridiculous reason as to why the head of the Sierra Club did not challenge the assertion that kkkk scientists have put forward a term to explain the fact that temps have not risen for two decades referring to ti as The Pause….

      Duncan…. you can accept my reason (he did not want to perjure himself — notice how he Paused for thought — and consulted his lawyers and Don Draper… before responding with gibberish about the 97%…. he obviously had to answer with something … so why not just spew Don’s tag line)

      Or….

      You can provide another reason.

      I really can’t wait….

      Could it be that his wife told him that if he challenged that she would send him to bed without dinner?

      Perhaps the mafia is threatening him — if he challenged they’d gun him down on the street.

      What else…. um….

      Come on Duncan surely you must have an explanation?????

  37. Fast Eddy says:

    Homicide and crime rates – including sexual assaults, and knife and gun attacks – continue to rise in the United Kingdom, with 90% of recorded offenses not ending in charges.

    A report published last week lays bare the shocking numbers – crimes resulting in charges sat at 11%, with the percentage falling two points in just a year to 9%; down from 15% in 2015.

    Since March of this year and the 12 months before, only 443,000 crimes out of 4.6 million recorded resulted in charges.

    Earlier this year, the homicide rate in London overtook New York City – with knife attacks rising by more than 30%. Although crime rates are surging in the U.K., officer numbers in London have hit a record low.

    As it stands, fewer than 1 in 10 of recorded crimes result in a charge, doing little to abate fear that England is undergoing an epidemic of violent crime.

    “High-harm” violent offenses involving weapons have soared – with knife, gun, and homicide rates rising rapidly.

    Official figures reported by the Office for National Statistics detail that – even excluding incidents with multiple victims, such as the terror attacks in London or Manchester – homicides rose 12% from 74 to 701 in just the span of a year.

    At the beginning of the year, after four young men were murdered in separate knife attacks in London during New Year’s Eve celebrations, mayor Sadiq Khan said:

    http://fmshooter.com/crime-rate-in-the-u-k-soars-while-90-of-recorded-crime-goes-uncharged/

    I’ve got … that Mad Max feeling …. woo-o that Mad Max feeling….

    And when Max arrives in America …. this is wait awaits….

    http://cdn0.thetruthaboutguns.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/total-guns.png

  38. Fast Eddy says:

    Norman … I have a question.

    You have stated that you believe man-caused GGG wWWW is real…. because 97% of kkk cchhh scientists state that it is real

    But — this article explains very thoroughly … that this is not true — not even close to being true

    https://www.nationalreview.com/2015/10/c
    limate-c
    hange-no-its-not-97-percent-consensus-ian-tuttle/

    Do you dispute the assertions in the article? If so please elaborate

    If not – then surely you would be forced to change your position on this issue?

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      National Review?
      (well, after Investors Business Daily {I’m a former subscriber} and Ted Cruz, even this could be expected)
      Overall, we rate the National Review Right Biased based on story selection that always favors the right and Mixed for factual reporting due to misleading claims and occasional use of poor sources.

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        California’s ‘Fair Pay’ Act Harms Women, Men, and Businesses (but Not Lawyers) ?

        FE– you need to do better

        • Fast Eddy says:

          So are you saying The Pause is not real?

          Cuz when confronted with that question the head of the Koombaya … ah I mean … the Sierra Club … refused to answer…

          Rather amusing … considering it is the unden iers who coined the term … to address the fact that sea levels and temps have been rather stable for two decades now.

          Consider this …. if I were the greatest hockey player on the planet – twice as good as Wayne Gretzky was —- but I beat my wife and fed by kids dog food….

          Would that make me a terrible hockey player?

          Logic is a sumbit ch …. ain’t it.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        When David Legates, a University of Delaware professor who formerly headed the university’s Center for KKKKKKlimatic Research, recreated Cook’s study, he found that “only 41 papers — 0.3 percent of all 11,944 abstracts or 1.0 percent of the 4,014 expressing an opinion, and not 97.1 percent,” endorsed what Cook claimed. Several scientists whose papers were included in Cook’s initial sample also protested that they had been misinterpreted. “Significant questions about anthropogenic influences on climate remain,” Legates concluded.

        Are you saying that Legates is wrong? He’s a KKK Scientist….

        And what about this?

        Studies showing a wider range of opinion often go unremarked. A 2008 survey by two German scientists, Dennis Bray and Hans von Storch, found that a significant number of scientists were skeptical of the ability of existing g lobal c limate models to accurately predict global temperatures, precipitation, sea-level changes, or extreme weather events even over a decade; they were far more skeptical as the time horizon increased.

        And then there is this:

        A 2012 poll of American Meteorological Society members also reported a diversity of opinion. Of the 1,862 members who responded (a quarter of the organization), 59 percent stated that human activity was the primary cause of global warming, and 11 percent attributed the phenomenon to human activity and natural causes in about equal measure, while just under a quarter (23 percent) said enough is not yet known to make any determination.

        And how many of these scientists who are on board — are paid to be on board — are paid to come up with conclusions that support the theory?

        And then we have the acknowledged PAUSE.

        Again – a term CREATED by the KKK Scientists…. because their predictions have NOT come true.

        How convenient.

        I can imagine the grooopie conference …

        So fellas – the NOAA shows no temp changes… for years now … hmmmm…. let’s call in Don Draper….

        Don — what should we do?

        No problem – a two pronged attack — we change from GG WWW to KKKKLimate CCCHange… and we roll out spin that says anything from a hurricane to a snow storm to a dog taking a sh it on the street — is caused by burning coal…. reinforce reinforce reinforce…. we own the media — we can turn a circle into a square if he have to …. this is the simple part….

        But that 20 year thing is a bit more tricky…. hmmmm… hmmmmn….

        http://www.snackable.fr/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/don-draper-whisky.jpg

        Let’s go with this … we call it a PAUSE…. pause = temporary … this creates the perception that any day now the temps are going to take off….

        That sounds really good Don!

        Glad you like it

        https://images1.westword.com/imager/u/745xauto/9263251/dondrapersmoking.jpg

        • Duncan Idaho says:

          Please FE:
          https://www.desmogblog.com/sites/beta.desmogblog.com/files/David-Legates.jpg
          David Legates was a signatory to a Cornwall Alliance open letter supporting Scott Pruitt for EPA Administrator under the Trump administration. [58]

          “Mr. Pruitt has also demonstrated understanding of and open-mindedness toward scientific insights crucial to the formulation and implementation of environmental regulation. He is prepared to hear all sides in debates over the risks and benefits of various activities that come under the purview of the EPA,” reads the letter.

          • Duncan Idaho says:

            “Legates was later asked to step down as State Climatologist by the Dean of the University. Although no one at the university was willing to explain the reason for replacing Legates as the State Climatologist, Greenpeace speculates that the reason may have been Legates’s close ties with Willie Soon.’

            FE– you really need better sources.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Hmmm… I wonder if he was asked to step down … because he was not getting with the programme?

              Kinda like how that other kkklimate scientist who blew the whistle…. was shi t upon from great heights?

              If you are going to make a comment like this and you want to demonstrate relevance…. you will need to provide hard data that demonstrates he was caught out lying….

              Otherwise you are just another f789ing MORE on …. and gets trampled by the stampeding herd known as Fast Eddy the Magnificent

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Exactly. If you do not support the Ho ax….. you are a pariah.

            Funny how if someone comes out and states the obvious – that we MUST burn more fossil fuels because TINA…. they are a pariah too.

            You are seriously f789ing re tard ed duncan….

            Still waiting on your reply re why the Sierra guy didn’t challenge The Pause…

            ……………………………………………..

            This all boils down to that.

            • Tim Groves – Japan
              Tim Groves says:

              You’ve got it in one, Eddy. Duncan is a green groupie (I doubt that he would object to that characterization) who is very much in line with the Globalist program and has drunk deeply of the Klimate Koolaid, and so understandably he has difficulty imagining why anyone not delusional would be loyal to the facts rather than to the orthodoxy.

              Essentially, the program calls for the deindustrialization of the industrialized world and the globalization of governance through the emasculation of national sovereignty and both corporate and individual liberty. Regulating, restricting and taxing the use of energy represents a powerful yoke on economic life.

              Back in the 1930s, during the last great depression, for MK Gandhi, the salt monopoly was a stark example of the ways the Raj unfairly imposed Britain’s will on even the most basic aspects of Indian life. Its effects cut across religious and class differences, harming both Hindus and Muslims, rich and poor. The Globalist plans for regulating energy use are an even more draconian way of imposing the will of the the bureaucratic elite on the rest of humanity, harming us all.

              (Of course, if BAU ends and the fuel ponds don’t behave themselves, all of the above is moot!—apart from the bit about Duncan being a green groupie!)

    • first off–whether I’m wrong or right is of little consequence in the grand scheme of things. Like the JW on my doorstep, argument is amusing but ultimately pointless

      genetic forces drive us to eat and reproduce ourselves, which is an energy consuming/heat producing activity in which we have no choice. 80m new people arrive each year as a result–demanding their share of our finite pile. That releases more heat into the environment. If you think the heat from 10bn + people and their activities can be absorbed without adverse effects—fair enough.

      There are those who insist this can go on indefinitely. Herr Trump promises 4% growth–in denial that this will require everything to double in 17 years, in particular fossil fuel burning. If you follow his dogma, then the Earth can absorb that level of heat and pollution and remain unaffected.

      (we’ve burned 200 years worth of fuel ‘without problems’, so we can carry on indefinitely)

      overpopulation, energy depletion and climate change are an interlocked collective problem, which in turn are part of our established political/ economic system.

      there are deniers (hush ma mouth) of each of those, or of all three. Any may be right–or wrong, Constant rant about one shifts attention from the other two. Which is a mistake where I offer no solution. (Human nature is what it is, I gave up trying to change that years ago) I certainly gave up being offended by differing views, unless physical violence is involved. JWs dont come across as threatening–but you never know.

      I try to find reliable sources—and present it for what it’s worth.

      Personally, I would place info from NASA above that of Investors weekly. As I pointed out, Investors Weekly has a powerful vested interest in BAU. The National Review link said nothing about ccccccccccc (sorry–run out of c’s and k’s there) so don’t know what that was about.

      Certainty that NASA is staffed by hoaxers and Investors weekly is run by philanthropists who care only for the good of humankind might cloud your judgement.

      Whichever line you follow or deny on the above–you can be certain of one thing: that we will be sideswiped from an angle nobody saw coming—-which will render the above arguments purely academic.

      It isn’t possible to separate politics from the above. In 2011 I forecast “a Trump” for 2016/20. That may turn out to be the sideswipe.

      His antics might crash the US economy, because its continued viability is predicated on infinite oil/heat output. Which is impossible. even though he is a ‘denier’ of that impossibility.
      Then the whole house of cards will fall in ways none of us can imagine

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I generally agree with you …. but on this issue ….I could not be more certain … the apple is rotten to the core….

        And I was hoodwinked for years… I recall having very aggressive arguments with ‘deniers’…. I owe them apologies.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          I think the point that people fail to notice is the importance and prestige of climate scientists is very much bound up with the issue of how serious a problem this is. If it is a very big, but solvable problem, then they are front and center in looking at the problem.

          If climate change is an ongoing problem that we have simply failed to notice and really have no solution for, then the work of climate scientists is mildly interesting, but that is about it.

          I was struck in reading James C. Scott’s Against the Grain view that agriculture seems to have grown up in very wet areas. What was being done in what is modern day Iraq is “draining the swamps,” not irrigation.

          We have had far too narrow a view of climate stability in the past. All of the burning of trees that the hunter gatherers did locally affected weather. There were other issues as well. We really do not have a way that we can go back to that would fix the situation. Hunter-gatherers started today’s climate problems, if anyone did.

          The climate change model is part of an overall narrative (we can simply move away from fossil fuels and solve our problems) that is clearly wrong. This is my objection to it. If the story could be changed to, “The climate is changing, but there is little we can do about it,” I would have less objection to it.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            No doubt chopping down massive forests had a far greater impact on the kkkklimate than burning billions of tonnes of fossil fuels….(which has had minimal if any effect given The Pause)….

            And yet… the planet has adapted… it has not turned into Mars….

            BTW – some months ago I posted some research that indicated that the excess carbon in the atmosphere was released into space …. perhaps the vegetation on the earth has absorbed a great deal of it….

            As we know … Mother N is a resilient old bag…. she can take a punch or two.

            So what we could be seeing from kkkk scientists is this:

            1. Some are just who res — who were feeding at the MoT trough and paid to come up with specific results

            2. Some are groopies – they watch Al Gore and read these paid for reports and joined the bandwagon — lining up for funding

            3. Some noticed a rise in temps 20+ years ago (who knows the cause because kkklimate is always changing) and honestly believed the fable – and they got on board

            4. Then with The Pause — like those on this site who are unable to see the Truth on this issue because they are so deeply invested psychologically and emotionally in the issue — they refuse to accept that the theory was wrong or that it was a ho ax from the very outset.

            Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds

            New discoveries about the human mind show the limitations of reason.

            https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds

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