Economies won’t be able to recover after shutdowns

Citizens seem to be clamoring for shutdowns to prevent the spread of COVID-19. There is one major difficulty, however. Once an economy has been shut down, it is extremely difficult for the economy to recover back to the level it had reached previously. In fact, the longer the shutdown lasts, the more critical the problem is likely to be. China can shut down its economy for two weeks over the Chinese New Year, each year, without much damage. But, if the outage is longer and more widespread, damaging effects are likely.

A major reason why economies around the world will have difficulty restarting is because the world economy was in very poor shape before COVID-19 hit; shutting down major parts of the economy for a time leads to even more people with low wages or without any job. It will be very difficult and time-consuming to replace the failed businesses that provided these jobs.

When an outbreak of COVID-19 hit, epidemiologists recommended social distancing approaches that seemed to be helpful back in 1918-1919. The issue, however, is that the world economy has changed. Social distancing rules have a much more adverse impact on today’s economy than on the economy of 100 years ago.

Governments that wanted to push back found themselves up against a wall of citizen expectations. A common belief, even among economists, was that any shutdown would be short, and the recovery would be V-shaped. False information (really propaganda) published by China tended to reinforce the expectation that shutdowns could truly be helpful. But if we look at the real situation, Chinese workers are finding themselves newly laid off as they attempt to return to work. This is leading to protests in the Hubei area.

My analysis indicates that now, in 2020, the world economy cannot withstand long shutdowns. One very serious problem is the fact that the prices of many commodities (including oil, copper and lithium) will fall far too low for producers, leading to disruption in supplies. Broken supply chains can be expected to lead to the loss of many products previously available. Ultimately, the world economy may be headed for collapse.

In this post, I explain some of the reasons for my concerns.

[1] An economy is a self-organizing system that can grow only under the right conditions. Removing a large number of businesses and the corresponding jobs for an extended shutdown will clearly have a detrimental effect on the economy. 

Figure 1. Chart by author, using photo of building toy “Leonardo Sticks,” with notes showing a few types of elements the world economy.

An economy is a self-organizing networked system that grows, under the right circumstances. I have attempted to give an idea of how this happens in Figure 1. This is an image of a child’s building toy. The growth of an economy is somewhat like building a structure with many layers using such a toy.

The precise makeup of the economy is constantly changing. New businesses are formed, and new consumers grow up and take jobs. Governments enact laws, partly to collect taxes, and partly to ensure fair treatment of all. Consumers decide which products to buy based on a combination of factors, including their level of wages, the prices being charged for the available goods, the availability of debt, and the interest rate on that debt. Resources of various kinds are used in producing goods and services.

At the same time, some deletions are taking place. Big businesses buy smaller businesses; some customers die or move away. Products that become obsolete are discontinued. The inside of the dome becomes hollow from the deletions.

If a large number of businesses are closed for an extended period, this will have many adverse impacts on the economy:

  • Fewer goods and services, in total, will be made for the economy during the period of the shutdown.
  • Many workers will be laid off, either temporarily or permanently. Goods and services will suddenly be less affordable for these former workers. Many will fall behind on their rent and other obligations.
  • The laid off workers will be unable to pay much in taxes. In the US, state and local governments will need to cut back the size of their programs to match lower revenue because they cannot borrow to offset the deficit.
  • If fewer goods and services are made, demand for commodities will fall. This will push the prices of commodities, such as oil and copper, very low.
  • Commodity producers, airlines and the travel industry are likely to head toward permanent contraction, further adding to layoffs.
  • Broken supply lines become problems. For example:
    • A lack of parts from China has led to the closing of many automobile factories around the world.
    • There is not enough cargo capacity on airplanes because much cargo was carried on passenger flights previously, and passenger flights have been cut back.

These adverse impacts become increasingly destabilizing for the economy, the longer the shutdowns go on. It is as if a huge number of deletions are made simultaneously in Figure 1. Temporary margins, such as storage of spare parts in warehouses, can provide only a temporary buffer. The remaining portions of the economy become less and less able to support themselves. If the economy was already in poor shape, the economy may collapse.

[2] The world economy was approaching resource limits even before the coronavirus epidemic appeared. This is not too different a situation than many earlier economies faced before they collapsed. Coronavirus pushes the world economy further toward collapse. 

Reaching resource limits is sometimes described as, “The population outgrew the carrying capacity of the land.” The group of people living in the area could not grow enough food and firewood using the resources available at the time (such as arable land, energy from the sun, draft animals, and technology of the day) for their expanding populations.

Collapses have been studied by many researchers. The book Secular Cycles by Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov analyze eight agricultural economies that collapsed. Figure 2 is a chart I prepared, based on my analysis of the economies described in that book:

Figure 2. Chart by author based on Turchin and Nefedov’s Secular Cycles.

Economies tend to grow for many years before the population becomes high enough that the carrying capacity of the land they occupy is approached. Once the carrying capacity is hit, they enter a stagflation stage, during which population and GDP growth slow. Growing debt becomes an issue, as do both wage and wealth disparity.

Eventually, a crisis period is reached. The problems of the stagflation period become worse (wage and wealth disparity; need for debt by those with inadequate income) during the crisis period. Changes tend to take place during the crisis period that lead to substantial drops in GDP and population. For example, we read about some economies entering into wars during the crisis period in the attempt to gain more land and other resources. We also read about economies being attacked from outside in their weakened state.

Also, during the crisis period, with the high level of wage and wealth disparity, it becomes increasingly difficult for governments to collect enough taxes. This problem can lead to governments being overthrown because of unhappiness with high taxes and wage disparity. In some cases, as in the 1991 collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union, the top level government simply collapses, leaving the next lower level of government.

Strangely enough, epidemics also seem to occur within collapse periods. The rising population leads to people living closer to each other, increasing the risk of transmission. People with low wages often find it increasingly difficult to eat an adequate diet. As a result, their immune systems easily succumb to new communicable diseases. Part of the collapse process is often the loss of a significant share of the population to a communicable disease.

Looking back at Figure 2, I believe that the current economic cycle started with the use of fossil fuels back in the 1800s. The world economy hit the stagflation period in the 1970s, when oil supply first became constrained. The Great Recession of 2008-2009 seems to be a marker for the beginning of the crisis period in the current cycle. If I am right in this assessment, the world economy is in the period in which we should expect crises, such as pandemics or wars, to occur.

The world was already pushing up against resource limits before all of the shutdowns took place. The shutdowns can be expected to push the world economy toward a more rapid decline in output per capita. They also appear to increase the likelihood that citizens will try to overthrow their governments, once the quarantine restrictions are removed.

[3] The carrying capacity of the world today is augmented by the world’s energy supply. A major issue since 2014 is that oil prices have been too low for oil producers. The coronavirus problem is pushing oil prices even lower yet.

Strangely enough, the world economy is facing a resource shortage problem, but it manifests itself as low commodity prices and excessive wage and wealth disparity.

Most economists have not figured out that economies are, in physics terms, dissipative structures. These are self-organizing systems that grow, at least for a time. Hurricanes (powered by energy from warm water) and ecosystems (powered by sunlight) are other examples of dissipative structures. Humans are dissipative structures, as well; we are powered by the energy content of foods. Economies require energy for all of the processes that we associate with generating GDP, such as refining metals and transporting goods. Electricity is a form of energy.

Energy can be used to work around shortages of almost any kind of resource. For example, if fresh water is a problem, energy products can be used to build desalination plants. If lack of phosphate rocks is an issue for adequate fertilization, energy products can be used to extract these rocks from less accessible locations. If pollution is a problem, fossil fuels can be used to build so-called renewable energy devices such as wind turbines and solar panels, to try to reduce future CO2 pollution.

The growth in energy consumption correlates quite well with the growth of the world economy. In fact, increases in energy consumption seem to precede growth in GDP, suggesting that it is energy consumption growth that allows the growth of GDP.

Figure 3. World GDP Growth versus Energy Consumption Growth, based on data of 2018 BP Statistical Review of World Energy and GDP data in 2010$ amounts, from the World Bank.

The thing that economists tend to miss is the fact that extracting enough fossil fuels (or commodities of any type) is a two-sided price problem. Prices must be both:

  1. High enough for companies extracting the resources to make an after tax profit.
  2. Low enough for consumers to afford finished goods made with these resources.

Most economists believe that an inadequate supply of energy products will be marked by high prices. In fact, the situation seems to be almost “upside down” in a networked economy. Inadequate energy supplies seem to be marked by excessive wage and wealth disparity. This wage and wealth disparity leads to commodity prices that are too low for producers. Current WTI oil prices are about $20 per barrel, for example (Figure 4).

Figure 4. Daily spot price of West Texas Intermediate oil, based on EIA data.

The low-price commodity price issue is really an affordability problem. The many people with low wages cannot afford goods such as cars, homes with heating and air conditioning, and vacation travel. In fact, they may even have difficulty affording food. Spending by rich people does not make up for the shortfall in spending by the poor because the rich tend to spend their wealth differently. They tend to buy services such as tax planning and expensive private college educations for their children. These services require proportionately less commodity use than goods purchased by the poor.

The problem of low commodity prices becomes especially acute in countries that produce commodities for export. Producers find it difficult to pay workers adequate wages to live on. Also, governments are not able to collect enough taxes for the services workers expect, such as public transit. The combination is likely to lead to protests by citizens whenever the opportunity arises. Once shutdowns end, these countries are especially in danger of having their governments overthrown.

[4] There are limits to what governments and central banks can fix. 

Governments can give citizens checks so that they have enough funds to buy groceries. This may, indeed, keep the price of food products high enough for food producers. There may still be problems with broken supply lines, so there may still be shortages of some products. For example, if there are eggs but no egg cartons, there may be no eggs for sale in grocery stores.

Central banks can act as buyers for many kinds of assets such as bonds and even shares of stock. In this way, they can perhaps keep stock market prices reasonably high. If enough gimmicks are used, perhaps they can even keep the prices of homes and farms reasonably high.

Central banks can also keep interest rates paid by governments low. In fact, interest rates can even be negative, especially for the short term. Businesses whose profitability has been reduced and workers who have been laid off are likely to discover that their credit ratings have been downgraded. This is likely to lead to higher interest costs for these borrowers, even if interest rates for the most creditworthy are kept low.

One area where governments and central banks seem to be fairly helpless is with respect to low prices for commodities used by industry, such as oil, natural gas, coal, copper and lithium. These commodities are traded internationally, so it is not just their own producers that need to be propped up; the market intervention needs to affect the entire world market.

One approach to raising world commodity prices would be to buy up large quantities of the commodities and store them somewhere. This is impractical, because no one has adequate storage for the huge quantities involved.

Another approach for raising world commodity prices would be to try to raise worldwide demand for finished goods and services. (Making more finished goods and services will use more commodities, and thus will tend to raise commodity prices.) To do this, checks would somehow need to go to the many poor people in the world, including those in India, Bangladesh and Nigeria, allowing these people to buy cars, homes, and other finished goods. Sending out checks only to people in one’s own economy would not be sufficient. It is unlikely that the US or the European Union would undertake a task such as this.

A major problem after many people have been out of work for a quite a while is the fact that many of these people will be behind on their regular payments, such as rent and car payments. They will be in no mood to buy a new vehicle or a new cell phone, simply because they have been offered a check that covers groceries and not much more. They will remain in a mode of cutting back on purchases, not adding more. Demand for most kinds of goods will remain low.

This lack of demand will make it difficult for business to have enough sales to make it profitable to reopen at the level of output that they had previously. Thus, employment and sales are likely to remain depressed even after the economy seems to be reopening. China seems to be having this problem. The Wall Street Journal reports China Is Open for Business, but the Postcoronavirus Reboot Looks Slow and Rocky. It also reports, Another Shortage in China’s Virus-Hit Economy: Jobs for College Grads.

[5] There is a significant likelihood that the COVID-19 problem is not going away, even if economies can “bend the trend line” with respect to new cases.

Bending the trend line has to do with trying to keep hospitals and medical providers from being overwhelmed. It is likely to mean that herd immunity is built up slowly, making repeat outbreaks more likely. Thus, if social isolation is stopped, COVID-19 illnesses can be expected to revisit prior locations. We know that this has been an issue in the past. The Spanish Flu epidemic came in three waves, over the years 1918-1919. The second wave was the most deadly.

A recent study by members of the Harvard School of Public Health says that the COVID-19 epidemic may appear in waves until into 2022. In fact, it could be back on a seasonal basis thereafter. It also indicates that more than one period of social distancing is likely to be required:

“A single period of social distancing will not be sufficient to prevent critical care capacities from being overwhelmed by the COVID-19 epidemic, because under any scenario considered it leaves enough of the population susceptible that a rebound in transmission after the end of the period will lead to an epidemic that exceeds this capacity.”

Thus, even if the COVID-19 problem seems to be fixed in a few weeks, it likely will be back again within a few months. With this level of uncertainty, businesses will not be willing to set up new operations. They will not hire many additional employees. The retired population will not run out and buy more tickets on cruise ships for next year. In fact, citizens are likely to continue to be worried about airplane flights being a place for transmitting illnesses, making the longer term prospects for the airline industry less optimistic.


The economy was already near the edge before COVID-19 hit. Wage and wealth disparity were big problems. Local populations of many areas objected to immigrants, fearing that the added population would reduce job opportunities for people who already lived there, among other things. As a result, many areas were experiencing protests because of unhappiness with the current economic situation.

The shutdowns temporarily cut back the protests, but they certainly do not fix the underlying situations. Instead, the shutdowns add to the number of people with very low wages or no income at all. The shutdowns also reduce the total quantity of goods and services available to purchase, regardless of how much money is added to the system. Many people will end up poorer, in some real sense.

As soon as the shutdowns end, it will be obvious that the world economy is in worse condition than it was before the shutdown. The longer the shutdowns last, the worse shape the world economy will be in. Thus, when businesses are restarted, we can expect even more protests and more divisive politics. Some governments may be overthrown, or they may collapse without being pushed. I fear that the world economy will be further down the road toward overall collapse.




About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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4,744 Responses to Economies won’t be able to recover after shutdowns

  1. Yoshua says:

    J.K Rowling is cured from Covid-19.

    Great, now she can write another book for the nerds, about a teenage boy and his magic stick.

    • beidawei says:

      Try one of her books for adults. I read “The Casual Vacancy” and liked it very much. Her mysteries were well reviewed.

      • Yoshua says:

        Adult mythology? I’ve already the Corona fever…so I’ll pass.

        • beidawei says:

          “The Casual Vacancy” was just a regular book about life and death in (not-so-idyllic) small-town England, no magic or mythology.

    • nerds are autists says:

      She writes fiction for women over the age of 18. Most of them are neurotic, not nerdy. Nerds can only be male.

  2. Fast Eddy says:

    Just a quick note to those who thought the anecdotes from Dave’s site have ended… sorry to disappoint ya’ll but I’m not going to get to essay 4 today and do a ‘harry’ and post the greatest hits…

    I will be back with more tomorrow so stay tuned.

    • Tom says:

      Well I for one are glad you are back Eddie. This comments section had gotten pretty boring while you were gone. I think the moon landing hoax posts are highly relevant to the current situation. I read the article you posted yesterday and thought it was excellent, very convincing. My wife says way too many people would need to be involved to create a hoax pandemic. I say not that many just a few key players feeding stories to the media and a few higher up figures like Boris Johnson to provide dramatic news. Bill Gates is obviously involved with this. These people have known about the impending train wreck from resource exhaustion and economic collapse for a long time. This is how they have decided to manage the situation. That’s my take on it.

      • i suggest we have 2 hats

        a hoax hat, and a conspiracy hat

        each doomster or guest doomster writes his favorite hoax or conspiracy of the day,, then puts them in the relevant hat

        each of us picks one out, and runs with it for that day

        That way everybody’s hoax/conspiracy gets a fair share of airtime/lafftime

      • Rural says:

        Tom, your wife is correct. If a conspiracy involves more than about three people, someone blabs and it falls apart. This is well understood in the field of critical thinking. There is a good discussion of conspiracy theories and the cognitive problems underlying their belief in episode 126 of the Rationally Speaking podcast. Also The Psychology of Conspiracy Theories website ( has a bunch of good psychology-based articles examining the issues with belief in the goofy conspiracy theories, including the recent COVID-19 denial conspiracy.

        Which isn’t to say that conspiracies don’t occur. They do, and there’s a huge face-saving operation by the CPC in China regarding SARS-CoV-2, but it is laughable, as is the idea that the virus doesn’t exist.

        In the case of the COVID-19, bursting the conspiracy would take one person working in healthcare who noticed that the beds at their institution are empty despite the reporting saying they are full. That’s it. That COVID-19 actually isn’t happening is beyond absurd.

        Fast Eddy’s writing might be entertaining. It is certainly hilarious, but at the same time sad. If you actually believe much of what he writes, you have some serious soul searching to do. Look at his track record here on this site. For years he has been convinced that “this is it” and announces that he’s going to hole up and watch it fall apart. It has never happened and he always returns for the next big doomsday event.

        I returned to OFW because of COVID-19, just to see how folk were taking it. Unfortunately, I see conspiratorial thinking has become dominant. It’s so bad that finding any believable information involves wading through absolute crap. Since that’s the case, I’ll be taking my leave for places with a higher signal-to-noise ratio.

        • I would describe the situation not as conspiracy, but as self-organizing belief systems that converge around some way of believing/acting that seems to be beneficial to a large number of participants.

          Historically, there have been many people who came up with religious beliefs/ theories. The beliefs that “stuck” were ones that a lot of people could see the day to day benefit of. “Thou shalt not murder (other people in your in-group)” is a way of believing/ acting that seemed to have benefit for many groups. Thou shalt not steal was another. I understand that some African religions have myths about bad things happening to people who steal.

          The current coronavirus is one which people together can see the harm of, so they try to figure out ways to “wall it off.” The catch is that the approach that worked historically doesn’t work well. It simply comes back. We can’t identify the virus well enough. The immunity may not really be very strong. After all, cold viruses are coronaviruses. They seem to have similar characteristics. We have never gotten rid of them, either.

        • info says:


          People do not blab if there is blackmail. Nor if they are part of a cult.

        • Wolfbay says:

          I know someone who recently died of Covid 19. Soon everyone will have a friend ,relative or acquaintance who is very sick or has died. When reality intrudes it might be harder to believe it’s all fake.

      • Covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        “These people have known about the impending train wreck from resource exhaustion and economic collapse for a long time. This is how they have decided to manage the situation.”

        we can disagree here…

        I don’t see much of any “management” since the Wuhan lockdown in January… just a bunch of leaders/govs making it up as they go…

        the global lockdown is mismanagement…

        it will only lengthen the spread of the virus, and of course mostly wreck the global economy…

        • Nope.avi says:

          the point is the virus will be blamed, not a failure of governments or the stem sector.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I am thinking of raising money on Go Fund Me…. aim for say $1,000,000 — the goal is to use the money to pay people $1000 to read and summarize Essay 1 from that site.

        I wouldn’t actually have to raise any money because legions of people would then read the essay just to find out WiTF anyone would pay $1000 to read and summarize an essay

    • Yorchichan says:

      Nothing I like better when I get up on a morning than visiting OFW and finding there’s a list of new Fast Eddy comments to read through. Fast Eddy is the most entertaining commentator there’s ever been…probably ever will be. Thanks for giving up your time to keep us amused.

      • Rodster says:

        Agreed !

        It was a sad day on OFW when he got bored with this place and left to agitate those at peak and

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Wolfst yes (but very sporadically) … Peak Prosperity never. Must have been someone else

      • Tom says:

        I agree too. We need good entertainment in these times more than ever and Fast Eddy delivers it. In response to Rural I don’t think the virus doesn’t exist. There is a really bad flu going around, as has happened before. We never shut down the whole economy because of it, so why now. What are the goals and objectives of this shutdown and how does it relate to the end of the fracking boom and the bursting of the debt bubble are very relevant topics for discussion on this board it seems to me.

        Here’s a thoughtful analysis of the likely deadly consequences from lack of food due to the lockdowns:

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Doomphd — I’m putting you on the team — you get to be the waterboy…. now get Tom a jersey …

          And Norman — if I find that you have not accepted the invite…. I will relegate you to stick boy…

          And in the offseason both of you will have positions shining my shoes…

          Doom you can do the left one … and Norm you get the right one…. no you cannot alternate…

          One DelusiSTANI… one shoe — and always the same shoe

          I don’t have 10 hours to train you on how to do the other shoe… Can’t you see I am a very busy.

          Well said Tom:

          • you can rely on me to put L and R in tippex on them

            so you don’t confuse them every morning

            And lace them together so when you find one the other will be close by

            • doomphd says:

              FE, happy to be selected to be on the team, and am seriously honored to be working with Norm. Unfortunately, keeping my left straight from my right has always been a personal challenge, but i will do my best to keep both upper and lower lips stiffined and to carry on in these trying times.

              BTW, too bad this global lockdown BS over some new flu virus has messed with your End of the World party plans. I was looking forward to visiting with you and Mrs. Fast in NZ.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Good article but the question is… is it the virus that is causing these problems — or is it the MSM hyping the virus that is causing these problems.

          I posted this earlier

          Global Coronavirus Cases Top 1.5 Million, Deaths Approach 90k: Live Updates

          In a bad flu year we get 650,000 deaths globally.

          42 million infections in the US alone.

          I fail to understand how 90k deaths — is enough to shut down supply chains. What is shutting down supply chains is fear — inspired by the MSM.

          Again – we know nurses in various places in Luzon — they are wondering WTF is going on — they are like the maytag repairman — sitting around with nothing to do because nobody is going to the hospital for normal procedures because they fear getting Wuhan or think the hospitals are jammed with Wuhan…. and there are very few Wuhan patients…

          Same being reported out of the US….

          I am getting similar reports out of Bali….

          All roads (and lies and hype) lead to CDT.

          How can such a massive fraud happen without anyone knowing — well people do KNOW — there are people filming empty hospitals across the US…

          But when most people look at those videos — they dismiss them — they PREFER to go with the MSM narrative….. EVEN though there are no videos of bulging hospitals — and CBS has been caught using video from an ICU in Italy and pretending it’s the US…

          It’s a brave soul (e.g. politician) who tries to scream against the MSM hurricane…. and a short trip to being labelled a nutcase conspiracy theorist…..

          Bolsonaro is a case in point — everyone is laughing at him for insisting that Brazil will stand and fight rather than drop to its knees and put its head on the chopping block….

          Lockdowns do not work. You can never unlock.

          The right strategy is to stand and fight — just like the US stood and fought when they had 42M infections 650k hospitalizations – and 61k dead on 2017/18. They won that battle rather easily. In fact it was more of a skirmish – I was not even aware that it happened.

          • Minority Of One says:

            Sweden is the only country in Europe that I am aware of that also has no lockdown, as of a couple of days ago. Everything, more or less, continuing there as usual. The BBC article that mentioned this was of course very condescending of the Swedish government, and expected them to fold and join the lockdown flock asap.
            I tell my work colleagues (we all work from home, for now) that I think we will be back to work (the buildings) within a couple of weeks, but I am met with – ‘what are you talking about?’
            What I mean is, if the govt can see the extreme damage the lockdown is doing to finance and economy, they will tell everyone to get back to work asap, but everyone I know seems oblivious.
            Difficult to see how the govt (here in the UK anyway) can now tell everyone to go back to work when they, and the MSM, have been telling the masses they risk death going to work, and the masses believe it.

            • Sweden is not showing a real flattening in New Cases yet. Its deaths relative to population are similar to Switzerland. They are lower relative to population than Netherlands, France, Italy, and Spain. Looking at the results, it is hard to make an argument that the lockdowns are all that useful.

              Cases seem to depend on population density and use of public transport to get to work. Shared ventilation systems at work or in living spaces raise transmissibility.

              Given that this is a marathon rather than a sprint, a person probably needs to look at the long term result. What happens after two years, for example?

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Most people are on board with the lockdown ‘we’re in this together’

              If you point out the medicine is worse than the disease and that we’ll be right rogered shortly if this continues….

              There is stunned silence …. as the brain searches for the next sound bite that it absorbed watching the MSM …. then — we have to lockdown because if we don’t civilization will end.

              I assume they realize that ‘right rogered’ is the same as….. only it’s coming sooner and harder….

              But then I realize they are only humans….. why would I make assumptions about a life form that is operating on a marginally higher intelligence level than a donkey…..

              Now some might be taken aback by that comment and saying that’s hyperbole Fast Eddy … there is a huge difference between the intelligence level of a donkey and a human

              To which FE says ….. actually if you add a little context it is not.

              Let’s say a human is Earth (E) And a donkey is the M. And FE is Pluto P)

              The distance from E to M is 387,000 miles

              The distance from E to P is roughly 5 BILLION miles

              Distance = IQ

              For those looking for a Challenge….

              What does M stand for?

              And what is Gail going to do to you if you know that answer and you post it?

              Here’s a hint (sorry Gail that’s the only good one I could find… ignore the nun outfit…)

              The full team…. is obviously now … in the house.

              Hey Larry how’s it goin? You know what — What’s that Fast?

              Since S10 is your last Season … I’ve been rationing it…. kinda like how that kid in Willy Wonka rationed his bits of chocolate…. I watch like 5 minutes at a time … And I must say S10 is your magnet opus bud…. really eh – you like it that much…. that’s great to hear – appreciate that…

              Hey Leon’s picking me up after shift … why don’t we call go down to Latte Larry’s … I’ll get Jeff to meet us and we can have some coffee and shoot the sh-it… if anything good comes out of it we’ll try to squeeze in an 11th episode before the shi t show hits….

              That sounds good Larry…. Oh but one thing Fast…. what’s that Larry…. don’t forget out no defecating policy …. oh right ya you only have urinals in the men’s room I remember that now…

              Just wanted to remind you Fast… cuz Joe will absolutely not let you take a dump next door if he’s seen you with me…. That’s not a problem Larry — I’m pretty regular — I’m a morning dumper…

              Oh ya? me too!…. Wow that’s amazing — we’re both morning dumpers… the great thing about that is you never get into a meeting and it’s like uh-oh…. excuse me…. and you run out the door like the building is on fire…. and you leave everyone sitting their wondering where the F is he going ….
              But hey Fast — you know that’s not what they are thinking — they are thinking that guy is gone to take a sh it!!! Nobody will admit it but that’s what they are thinking …..

              Ya you are right Larry — and then when you come back 10 minutes later without that urgent look on your face…. your all relaxed like… smiling…. their thinking this guy just took the mother of all sh -its.. look how happy he is…

              That’s right Fast… and isn’t it amazing everyone can just pick up where they left off talking serious business talk… nobody bursts out laughing…. nobody says hey bud — how was your sh it? Looks like it was awesome!!!

              Nope all is forgotten…..

              Ok Fast… I’ll leave you to it…

              I told you there was a Dream Team — did I mention Larry was part of this…. now the above is not scripted … we JUST had that conversation …. now if there is a episode 11 of Curb (the current season finished at 10… and yes I am rationing it… )…. and the above discussion ends up in that episode

              Then ….. (IQ Test Time)… if this happens … what does it mean?

              Of course if the coffee meeting doesn’t go so well and nothing amusing comes of it then odds are there won’t be an E11….. hard to justify a full episode if you only have a single idea….

              I wonder if there might be some way to bring the E M P thing into this … that would be something Leon might riff on …. hmmmm….. if we can make that work then we’ve pretty much got E11 in the can….

        • Tim Watkins has written another very fine post.

          One point that is easy to miss:

          . . . the RHA [what I would call the Truck Drivers’ Association] is concerned that the closure of the much larger non-essential part of the economy is making logistics unprofitable because trucks and vans are travelling with half or less loads.

          It is expensive taking goods across the country, if the truck is not full, or if it cannot be filled up for the return trip. The same problem occurs with boats carrying containers. If these boats don’t have a full load, it becomes more expensive to transport the containers. And of course, they need a product [waste for recycling?] for the return trip.

      • Fast Eddy says:


        I was thinking that the Moaners and Whiners…. are kinda like how I am a Great White Shark … I have to keep moving and hunting for meat…. they have to keep moaning and whining or they suffocate….

        It gives their lives meaning.

        Let’s have a contest for the best Moaning Face:

        If I thought voting was not pointless… I would definitely write Trump onto the ballot over both of these World-Class Moaners.

        My biggest decision of the day:

        Should I filter ‘Norman’ now and see what The Verdict is (on Dave)…. or should I just randomly browse (looking for meat to feed on or Core comments to give me a glimmer of hope in a world filled with mediocrity and ideeeocracy

        • Well, it’s understandable you looked hard for some sort of primer type of material on the whole issue in order for people with very limited historical or technical background could easily digest, but “Dave” reveals on occasion not insignificant errors and omissions.

          For example, the Nixon angle is a bit laughable, as the fix must had been (at least optional) since early / mid 1960s when the slippages and quality problems in various sub projects and information on the radiation became a pressing issue and when all the subsystems where developed for completely tight oversight, for example the ground control room with dozens of engineers was fed training simulation data link, and they could not discern mere exercise or live mission on their watch. This angle needed lot of infrastructure in place, so one could estimate at least ~3-5yrs prior to launch the plans for faking the mission must have been in place already.

          So, in short Nixon got this on the plate already precooked and gladly glanced about it. Similarly, Dave, doesn’t mention the A12 mission, which was not televised as they supposedly in accident burned the camera by pointing it in the sun, which again strengthens the point of overdoing the charade with the next A13..

          I can go on and on with other points, perhaps just matter of taste, but in my view it’s better to stick with first gen researchers or authors who actively taken part in the development at that time or interviewed them when alive and so on. Again, people should start with Bill Casing, Ralph Rene, Bart Sibrel, or Jarrah White for the technical analysis. Mr. Dave is an interesting prose with some key points, but it’s just a derivative commentary..

          • OK, around the chapter ~10 he gets into some interesting stuff, near my points above, the Gemini->Apollo was likely the threshold barrier going full fraud, so I partly retract my criticism..

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Let’s just drop the key parts here — for those who prefer to remain in their boxes… they can just skip those posts and go back to their discussion of who’s more awesome Justin Bieber or Mylie Cyrus

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Motive is the most difficult … but he puts some interesting theories out there including distracting from various war crimes (my term) that the US committed in vietnam and cambodia during this time


        • psile says:

          Look, it’s the simp twins!

  3. Harry McGibbs says:

    The World Trade Organisation sums up the global trade situation in 2019 pre-coronavirus:

    “Trade was already slowing in 2019 before the virus struck, weighed down by trade tensions and slowing economic growth. World merchandise trade registered a slight decline for the year of ‑0.1% in volume terms after rising by 2.9% in the previous year. Meanwhile, the dollar value of world merchandise exports in 2019 fell by 3% to US$ 18.89 trillion.”

    And forecasts:

    …a decline in global trade of “between 13% and 32% in 2020 as the COVID 19 pandemic disrupts normal economic activity and life around the world.”

  4. Marco Bruciati says:

  5. JMS says:

    Don’t know if anyone has mentioned this here. Denmark has officially legalize censorship last month, since now authorities can silenced anyone who dares to question the official version of covid-19!
    And as if that were not enough, the Danish parliament put into law the mandatory vaccination against covid-19 when the vaccine arrives! In other words, danish will be required by law to subject to an invasive clinical procedure, as if their will counted zero, as if they were domestic animals. I am not against vaccines, far from it (since i wouldn’t be alive without some of them). But mandatory vaccines I only admit for dogs, because of rabies.
    So dissent in the kingdom of Denmark is therefore prohibited, and its people have been officially demoted to pet status. Congratulations to them,
    But I think when human beings let their owners treat them as creatures without will or rights, better to throw yourself at the sea with a ton stone tied to the neck.
    Totalitarianism ensues.


    On April 2, 2020, the Danish Parliament passed a new law that makes it possible to close websites and to impose fines or imprisonment on persons who publish information about Covid-19 that does not follow the authorities’ guidelines.

    • Wow! Amazing all of the things that people do to make sure that the official belief system is followed.

      • Jason says:

        If you can’t get your animal to do what you want with training, praise, and food you get desperate and bring out the whips. If that doesn’t work you either let it go or shoot it and eat it.

        • Mosey says:

          Seems that some of the folks are not grasping the salient point here so I’ll provide a summary that will make Denmark’s action easier for you to understand:

          We are getting rid of false and misleading information that has the potential to kill our citizens, we are going to censor it. We see what “freedom of speech” is doing to make many Americans ill, with a very high death incidence, and for the time being, we will not let that happen here. We will resume societal norms when we have moved past the pandemic.

          Hope that helps.

    • Xabier says:

      Such idiots to censor, as they only reinforce the conspiracy theory loons and people will end up believing anything and everything rather than reasoning.

  6. Marco Bruciati says:

    Holland close to eurobond. Tomorrow try again and Paris help too. Goldman Sachs see pil of itali -11next year plus 7 . Of course if virus dissolve tomorrow

  7. Marco Bruciati says:

    About collaps i am sure 100%only make me Crazy when . For organize food . Gardening. Solar panel . Generator. Frozen. Is very important

    • Gardening, homesteading channels on YT, 100% increases of viewers in a month in some instances, many tools for gardening sold out, .. , .. lot of people getting the message..

      /obviously few are grasping the over-all net surplus dimension, because there is always some ext. input into gardening-farming, and if not the surplus is VERY tiny (non marketable)..

      • Xabier says:

        Harder and harder to buy stuff from the suppliers, certainly.

        Many of them will probably give up disillusioned after the rush.

        As for a kitchen garden, It can really only be a supplement to government rations but a most worthwhile thing to do for that reason -the little that can make all the difference in health and mental functioning.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          I cannot even buy a bag of fertilizer here in NZ…. all retail is closed.. no online ordering either

          That’s fine … I’ve given up on the veg garden thing years ago….

      • Curt Kurschus says:

        Here in New Zealand, the impression I get is that most people see the current economic malaise as being a result of the virus and the efforts being made at stopping the virus. There are disagreements over the need for and application of the lockdown, but it is believed that everything would otherwise be okay without it. The general assumption looks to be that once the Covid-19 situation has passed – with the further assumption that it shall – everything will be back to normal. Back to normal being taken to mean back to long term economic growth with work being done to make that growth sustainable.

        As we all know here on this blog, reality is something very different and far less optimistic. Not only in terms of the state of the global economy prior to the onset of the virus situation, but also in terms of what we may reasonably expect moving forward.

        Yes, we have had panic buying here, but that may well be a matter more of some people panic buying in order to get ahead of some other people panic buying. Or, it could just be a reflex. Even something almost pavlovian, perhaps.

        • Mosey says:

          “As we all know here on this blog, reality is something very different and far less optimistic.”

          Understatement of the century! LOL! Doomers love it at this blog, and it appears that many here will be very sad when we all don’t die in this pandemic. Gail has an opinion of what she believes is going on, and she does a good job of arguing why she believes her views are right. Fine and good, we’re all entitled to have our opinions. But reality oftentimes is much different than any one individual’s perception. Yes, the world economy is going to be a shit show for at least the next decade, no question about that. But humans will adapt and thrive, just like my great grandparents did in the 1930s. You’ll see. Be of good cheer!

          • Malcopian says:

            The journey is fascinating and becomes ever weirder, but I worry about the destination. Proponents of AI and quantum-computing expect them to be hugely transformative in this decade. I live in hope but doubt that same hope massively.

    • Dennis L. says:


      Gardening is very hard, once the garden works animals find it easier to eat in one place, fence needs to be high enough for deer, deep enough for digging animals.

      Solar is a pain, it does not work unless you make it big enough, sell excess to the utility at their loss, pocket their profit and buy the stuff from their battery which is the conventional power.

      We live in groups, surviving alone is almost impossible, most recent example in N. America is probably the mountain men, if I recall the average age at death was about 37 years give or take.

      Nice to read comments from Italy, your English is better than my Italian.

      Dennis L.

  8. Dennis L. says:

    FE, not even close.

    Flag still flies. Spacecraft have taken pictures of its shadow.

    The Van Allen belts have been navigated and they can be navigated if one has a basic understanding of their shape. NASA understood and used that shape, the referenced article even reports nuclear blasts were considered to clear a way through the belts. “The radiation environments of both(belts) vary, more dense in some places and nearly absent in others.”

    “To monitor radiation exposure during the flights, Apollo crews carried dosimeters on board their spacecraft and on their persons. And these readings confirmed NASA had made a good choice. At the end of the program, the agency determined that its astronauts had avoided the large radiation doses many feared would ground flights to the Moon. Over the course of the lunar missions, astronauts were exposed to doses lower than the yearly 5 rem average experienced by workers with the Atomic Energy Commission who regularly deal with radioactive materials. And in no case did any astronaut experience any debilitating medical or biological effects. And beside, the Apollo astronauts were former test pilots. Flying to the Moon, radiation exposure included, was still a safer day at the office than putting an experimental aircraft through its paces in the skies above Edwards Air Force Base.”

    FE, maybe a bit of research?

    You are entertaining in a way, distracting at a time when distraction is nice, sometimes throw up some interesting references. It is easy to lose credibility by lying, or it is easy to lose it by being repeatedly wrong. Generally as we human beings find it necessary to cooperate in groups so not unlike a social gathering we simply walk away literally and figuratively from wrong information unless our need to belong to a group becomes so strong we reject ideas not aligned with our group. This sort of thing leads to polarization.

    As for the tree bark, someone wanted a real piece of moon rock, pocket it and switched. Under glass a rock is a rock is a rock. Many have gone missing, many have been found. “Of the 270 Apollo 11 Moon rocks and the Apollo 17 Goodwill Moon Rocks that were given to the nations of the world by the Nixon Administration, approximately 180 are unaccounted for.” Someone with access wanted a rock.

    This is a wonderful site on which to explore ideas in a respectful manner. We are surrounded by society at both its finest and its most confused. We as humans operate within groups and as such have the strength of a group as well as the weakness of needing to conform to our group. We are working our way through this mess and it is a mess, we are resilient, we discard what does not work either by intelligent design or just literal death of the carrier of the idea.

    “A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it. . . . An important scientific innovation rarely makes its way by gradually winning over and converting its opponents: it rarely happens that Saul becomes Paul. What does happen is that its opponents gradually die out, and that the growing generation is familiarized with the ideas from the beginning: another instance of the fact that the future lies with the youth.”

    — Max Planck, Scientific autobiography, 1950, p. 33, 97

    Fact checking is now trivial.

    Dennis L.

    • Now we have two sides of the story.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Sorry but no there are not two sides to this.

        As Dave points out focusing on the Van Allen Belts is wrong.

        There is no shortage of Moon hoax ‘debunking’ sites out there on the wild and wooly World Wide Web. The majority of them are not particularly well written or argued and yet they tend to be rather smug and self-congratulatory. Most of them tend to stick to ‘debunking’ the same facts and they use the same arguments to do so.

        One thing they like to talk a lot about is the Van Allen radiation belts. The Moon hoax sites talk a lot about them as well. The hoaxers will tell you that man cannot pass through the belts without a considerable amount of radiation protection – protection that could not have been provided in the 1960s through any known technology.

        And the ‘debunkers’ claim that the Apollo astronauts would have passed through the belts quickly enough that, given the levels of radiation, no harm would have come to them. The hoaxers, say the ‘debunkers,’ are just being girlie men.

        As it turns out, both sides are wrong: the ‘debunkers,’ shockingly enough, are completely full of shit, and the hoaxers have actually understated the problem by focusing exclusively on the belts. We know this because NASA itself – whom the ‘debunkers’ like to treat as a virtually unimpeachable source on all things Apollo, except, apparently, when the agency posts an article that implicitly acknowledges that we haven’t actually been to the Moon – has told us that it is so.

        They have told us that in order to leave low-Earth orbit on any future space flights, our astronauts would need to be protected throughout the entirety of the flight, as well as – and once again, this comes directly from NASA – while working on the surface of the Moon.

        On June 24, 2005, NASA made this rather remarkable admission: “NASA’s Vision for Space Exploration calls for a return to the Moon as preparation for even longer journeys to Mars and beyond. But there’s a potential showstopper: radiation. Space beyond low-Earth orbit is awash with intense radiation from the Sun and from deep galactic sources such as supernovas …

        Finding a good shield is important.”(

        You’re damn right finding a good shield is important!! Back in the 1960s, of course, we didn’t let a little thing like space radiation get in the way of us beating the Ruskies to the Moon. But now, I guess, being that we are more cultured and sophisticated, we want to do it the right way so we have to come up with some way of shielding our spaceships. And our temporary Moon bases. And figuring out how to do that, according to NASA, could be a real “showstopper.”

        As NASA notes, “the most common way to deal with radiation is simply to physically block it, as the thick concrete around a nuclear reactor does. But making spaceships from concrete is not an option.” Lead, which is considerably denser than concrete, is actually the preferred material to use for radiation shielding, but lead also isn’t very popular with spaceship designers.

        In fact, word on the street is that one of the main reasons the Soviets never made it to the Moon was because their scientists calculated that four feet of lead shielding would be required to protect their astronauts, and those same scientists apparently felt that spaceships wouldn’t fly all that well when clad in four feet of lead.

        Now NASA is thinking outside the box and contemplating using ‘force fields’ to repel the radiation, a seemingly ridiculous idea that, whether workable in the future or not, certainly wasn’t available to NASA in the 1960s.

        Below is NASA’s own artist rendering of a proposed ‘force field’ radiation shield that would allow astronauts to work safely on the Moon. As you may have noticed in the earlier photos of the lunar modules, our guys didn’t bring anything like that with them on their, uhmm, earlier missions to the Moon. And you may have also noticed that the modules did not have any type of physical shielding.

        How then did they do it? My guess is that the answer lies in that gold foil wrap. While it may look like an amateurish attempt to make the modules appear more ‘high-tech,’ I have a hunch that what we are looking at is another example of the lost technology of the 1960s – this time in the form of a highly-advanced superpolymer that provided maximum radiation shielding while adding virtually no weight.

        So all we have to do is track down a few leftover rolls of that stuff and we should be well on our way to sending guys back to the Moon.

        According to Charles Buhler, a NASA scientist currently working on the force field concept, “Using electric fields to repel radiation was one of the first ideas back in the 1950s, when scientists started to look at the problem of protecting astronauts from radiation. They quickly dropped the idea though because it seemed like the high voltages needed and the awkward designs that they thought would be necessary … would make such an electric shield impractical.”

        What a real journalist would have asked here, of course, is: “After dropping the electric shield concept, exactly what did they decide to use to get our astronauts safely to the Moon and back on the Apollo missions? And why can’t we do the same thing now, rather than reinventing the wheel? Don’t you guys have some of that gold foil in a closet somewhere?” No one in the American media, of course, bothered to ask such painfully obvious questions.

        The 2005 report from NASA ends as follows: “But, who knows, perhaps one day astronauts on the Moon … will work safely.” Yes, and while we’re dreaming the impossible dream, let’s add a few more things to our wish list as well, like perhaps one day we’ll be able to listen to music on 8-track tape players, and talk to people on rotary dial telephones, and carry portable transistor radios, and use cameras that shoot pictures on special film that develops right before our eyes. Only time will tell, I suppose.

        The Van Allen belts, by the way, trap most Earth-bound radiation, thus making it safe for us mortals down here on the surface of planet Earth, as well as for astronauts in low-Earth orbit (the belts extend from 1,000 to 25,000 miles above the surface of the Earth).

        The danger is in sending men through and beyond the belts, which, apart from the Apollo missions, has never been attempted … well, actually there was that one time, but I think we all remember how badly that turned out. In case anyone has forgotten, the astronauts returned to a world dominated by extremely poor acting, apes speaking with British accents, and a shirtless Charleton Heston. And I don’t think anyone wants to see that happen again.

        The 2005 report was not the first time that NASA had openly discussed the high levels of radiation that exist beyond the Van Allen belts. In February 2001, the space agency posted a ‘debunking’ article that argued that the rocks allegedly brought back from the Moon were so distinctive in nature that they proved definitively that man had gone to the Moon.

        The problem though with maintaining a lie of the magnitude of the Moon landing lie is that there is always the danger that in defending one part of the lie, another part will be exposed.

        Such was the case with NASA’s ill-conceived The Great Moon Hoax post, in which it was acknowledged that what are referred to as “cosmic rays” have a tendency to “constantly bombard the Moon and they leave their fingerprints on Moon rocks.”

        • one question Eddy, if I may

          Do you ever stop to eat, or has Mrs FE got you fixed up on an intravenous drip

          (and of course a drain system at the other end?)

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Is it possible that Fast Eddy is a front man … a fast-typing minion…. or multiple fast typing minions working on shifts (nobody would work 16 hour shifts would they…) who is fed scripts from a team of ‘thinkers’ and researchers that get transcribed onto OFW?

            Surely it is not possible for a single person to have the time (or ability) to think these thoughts …. and type them onto OFW as well….

            Might it be that when FE says he has a 700 IQ … he is actually adding up the IQs of say 5 people with average IQs of 140 (genius level)…. And when he says his IQ is sometimes only 500 could it be that someone is on leave that day?

            Is Fast Eddy kinda like ‘Dave’….

            Dave put out a hell of a lotta of incredible stuff on that website… he’s not only an incredibly talented writer… a Larry David-level comedy writer (hmmmm… Larry David.. he’s a tribal cat….) …. and to boot he’s an expert photographer (see his detailed take down of the photos associated with the mo on landing — all of which are lost… funny that — they are all lost…)

            Let’s think big … could Dave’s site be part of Fast Eddy ‘enterprises’…. the business model is remarkably similar … Is Lidia M Fast…..

            Bigger? Ok let’s go BIGGER…. is Fast Eddy enterprises an extension of something much much much bigger…. maybe associated with the e l ders and project pro tocols… Fast Eddy seems to know quite a bit about that as well huh….

            Was there not a hint in one of yesterday’s post about the reason Dave’s trove was dumped onto OFW… just as the train approaches the brick wall?

            Could it be that Fast Eddy ‘the concept’ was launched post GFC…. in an office in the the Fed building … when the great powers that work there decided that before the imminent extinction … they wanted to toot their own horns a little and come out from behind the curtain — so they launched FE and identified OFW as the site that all brilliant minds have congregated on (along with some total meat heads…but they don’t matter… they won’t ‘get it’)….

            And FE ‘the team’ has been drip feeding truths onto this site for years now.

            Don Draper has been referenced by FE on a regular basis… might Don Draper represent the FE team? And if so then is it possible that Madmen (which has some VERY DEEP messages … if you are a brilliant thinker and able to decipher them)…. was also an invention of the e l ddders….

            Surely Fast Eddy can’t be a single person… could he?

            If he is then obviously he is a force of nature… we have never seen anything like this.. ever…

            It’s almost as if he is a supernatural force…..

            It’s a difficult choice… either FE is front man for the Dream Team (Norm – if that is the case then sorry but you actually never had a chance… the Dream Team doesn’t recruit from OFW)….. or … or ….. he is the maker of the matrix…. the entity that created the virtual reality that you are experiencing (aka God)….

            Impossible to know —- while you are alive at least…..

            If the latter is correct then soon we can meet for a cold beer (with pizzsa?) … and have a laugh or too.

            Like I said … it’s a rather loney situation…. (if it’s the latter)….

            If it’s the latter would FE do all of this for FREE????? Wouldn’t he drop a link at the end of each post (like Wolf and Steve and Chris do) allowing you to support him with a monthly tithe? Remember George Carlin’s take on the tithe thing…this all powerful guy in they — but he needs MONEY!!! He always needs more money!!!

            But FE doesn’t appear to need or want money…. What would George make of all this if he were alive?

    • Covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      thank you Den nis… quite wonderful…

    • Fast Eddy says:

      ya there’s the flag … i see it…

  9. 09876 says:

    The hospitals are empty because martial law is working! Martial law is protecting you from the deadly corona virus. Without intervention you would perish a horrible and painful death to the last one! Are you grateful? Show it. Demonstrate it. Disregarding charity is as grave offense.

  10. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Pharmacists [in the UK] are to be allowed to hand out a range of super-strength medicines, including the heroin substitute methadone, without prescription during the Covid-19 crisis, under emergency measures that official drug policy advisers have warned could trigger a spike in drug misuse.”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “It’s not just toilet roll that people are panic buying [in the US]. Some illegal drug users are reportedly stockpiling their substance of choice as restrictions intended to stop the spread of coronavirus disrupt the international supply chain.”

      • According to the article,

        Any disruption to the illicit drug supply will have the biggest effect on the most vulnerable populations. Heavy drug users are more likely to live with multiple people, have respiratory or other health issues or be homeless — and are therefore more at risk of contracting Covid-19.

        “They are in a double tier of vulnerability in that they’re more likely to get the virus and they’re more likely to be affected negatively by it,” said Rolles.

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