Why a Great Reset Based on Green Energy Isn’t Possible

It seems like a reset of an economy should work like a reset of your computer: Turn it off and turn it back on again; most problems should be fixed. However, it doesn’t really work that way. Let’s look at a few of the misunderstandings that lead people to believe that the world economy can move to a Green Energy future.

[1] The economy isn’t really like a computer that can be switched on and off; it is more comparable to a human body that is dead, once it is switched off.

A computer is something that is made by humans. There is a beginning and an end to the process of making it. The computer works because energy in the form of electrical current flows through it. We can turn the electricity off and back on again. Somehow, almost like magic, software issues are resolved, and the system works better after the reset than before.

Even though the economy looks like something made by humans, it really is extremely different. In physics terms, it is a “dissipative structure.” It is able to “grow” only because of energy consumption, such as oil to power trucks and electricity to power machines.

The system is self-organizing in the sense that new businesses are formed based on the resources available and the apparent market for products made using these resources. Old businesses disappear when their products are no longer needed. Customers make decisions regarding what to buy based on their incomes, the amount of debt available to them, and the choice of goods available in the marketplace.

There are many other dissipative structures. Hurricanes and tornadoes are dissipative structures. So are stars. Plants and animals are dissipative structures. Ecosystems of all kinds are dissipative structures. All of these things grow for a time and eventually collapse. If their energy source is taken away, they fail quite quickly. The energy source for humans is food of various types; for plants it is generally sunlight.

Thinking that we can switch the economy off and on again comes close to assuming that we can resurrect human beings after they die. Perhaps this is possible in a religious sense. But assuming that we can do this with an economy requires a huge leap of faith.

[2] Economic growth has a definite pattern to it, rather than simply increasing without limit. 

Many people have developed models reflecting the fact that economic growth seems to come in waves or cycles. Ray Dalio shows a chart describing his view of the economic cycle in a preview to his upcoming book, The Changing World Order. Figure 1 is Dalio’s chart, with some annotations I have added in blue.

Figure 1. New World Order chart by Ray Dalio from an introduction to his theory called The Changing World Order. Annotations in blue added by Gail Tverberg.

Modelers of all kinds would like to think that there are no limits in this world. Actually, there are many limits. It is the fact that economies have to work around limits that leads to cycles such as these. Some examples of limits include inadequate arable land for a growing population, inability to fight off pathogens, and an energy supply that becomes excessively expensive to produce. Cycles can be expected to vary in steepness, both on the upside and the downside of the cycle.

The danger of ignoring these cycles is that researchers tend to create models of future economic growth and future energy consumption that are far out of sync with what really can be expected. Accurate models need to include at least some limited version of overshoot and collapse on a regular basis. Models of the future economy tend to be based on what politicians would like to believe will happen, rather than what actually can be expected to happen in the real world.

[3] Commodity prices behave differently at different stages of the economic cycle. During the second half of the economic cycle, it becomes difficult to keep commodity prices high enough for producers. 

There is a common belief that demand for energy products will always be high, because everyone knows we need energy. Thus, according to this belief, if we have the technology to extract fossil fuels, prices will eventually rise high enough that fossil fuel resources can easily be extracted. Many people have been concerned that we might “run out” of oil. They expect that oil prices will rise to compensate for the shortages. Thus, many people believe that in order to maintain adequate supply, we should be concerned about supplementing fossil fuels with nuclear power and renewable energy.

If we examine oil prices (Figure 2), it is apparent that, at least recently, this is not the way oil prices actually behave. Since the spike in oil prices in 2008, the big problem has been prices that fall too low for oil producers. At prices well below $100 per barrel, development of many new oil fields is not economic. Low oil prices are especially a problem in 2020 because travel restrictions associated with the coronavirus pandemic reduce oil demand (and prices) even below where they were previously.

Figure 2. Weekly average spot oil prices for Brent, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.

Strangely enough, coal prices (Figure 3) seem to follow a very similar pattern to oil prices, even though coal is commonly believed to be available in huge supply, and oil is commonly believed to be in short supply.

Figure 3. Selected Spot Coal Prices, from BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy. Prices are annual averages. Price for China is Qinhuangdao spot price; price for US is Central Appalachian coal spot index; price for Europe is Northwest European marker price.

Comparing Figures 2 and 3, we see that prices for both oil and coal rose to a peak in 2008, then fell back sharply. The timing of this drop in prices corresponds with the “debt bust” in late 2008 that is shown in Figure 1.

Prices then rose to another peak in 2011, after several years of Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is intended to hold the cost of borrowing down, encouraging the use of more debt. This debt can be used by citizens to buy more goods made with coal and oil (such as cars and solar panels). Therefore, QE is a way to increase demand and thus help raise energy prices. In the 2011-2014 period, oil was able to maintain its price better than coal, perhaps because of its short supply. Once the United States discontinued its QE program in 2014, oil prices dropped like a rock (Figure 2).

Prices were very low in 2015 and 2016 for both coal and oil. China stimulated its economy, and prices for both coal and oil were able to rise again in 2017 and 2018. By 2019, prices for both oil and coal were falling again. Figure 2 shows that in 2020, oil prices have fallen again, as a result of demand destruction caused by pandemic shutdowns. Coal prices have also fallen in 2020, according to Trading Economics.

[4] The low prices since mid-2008 seem to be leading to both peak crude oil and peak coal. Crude oil production started falling in 2019 and can be expected to continue falling in 2020. Coal extraction seems likely to start falling in 2020.

In the previous section, I showed that crude oil and coal both have the same problem: Prices tend to be too low for producers to make a profit extracting them. For this reason, investment in new oil wells is being reduced, and unprofitable coal mines are being closed.

Figure 4 shows that world crude oil production has not grown much since 2004. In fact, OPEC’s production has not grown much since 2004, even though OPEC countries report high oil reserves so, in theory, they could pump more oil if they chose to.

Figure 4. World crude oil production (including condensate) based on data from BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy. Russia+ refers to the group Commonwealth of Independent States.

In total, BP data shows that world crude oil production fell by 582,000 barrels per day, comparing 2019 to 2018. This represents a drop of 2.0 million barrels per day in OPEC production, offset by smaller increases in production for the US, Canada, and Russia. Crude oil production is expected to fall further in 2020, because of low demand and prices.

Because of continued low coal prices, world coal production has been on a bumpy plateau since 2011. Prices seem to be even lower in 2020 than in 2019, putting further downward pressure on coal extraction in 2020.

Figure 5. World coal production based on data from BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy.

[5] Modelers missed the fact that fossil fuel extraction would disappear because of low prices, leaving nearly all reserves and other resources in the ground. Modelers instead assumed that renewables would always be an extension of a fossil fuel-powered system.

The thing that most people do not understand is that commodity prices are set by the laws of physics, so that supply and demand are in balance. Demand is really very close to “affordability.” If there is too much wage/wealth disparity, commodity prices tend to fall too low. In a globalized world, many workers earn only a few dollars a day. Because of their low wages, these low-paid workers cannot afford to purchase very much of the world’s goods and services. The use of robots tends to produce a similar result because robots can’t actually purchase goods and services made by the economy.

Thus, modelers looking at Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI) for wind and for solar assumed that they would always be used inside of a fossil fuel powered system that could provide heavily subsidized balancing for their intermittent output. They made calculations as if intermittent electricity is equivalent to electricity that can be controlled to provide electricity when it is needed. Their calculations seemed to suggest that making wind and solar would be useful. The thing that was overlooked was that this was only possible within a system where other fuels would provide balancing at a very low cost.

[6] The same issue of low demand leading to low prices affects commodities of all kinds. As a result, many of the future resources that modelers count on, and that companies depend upon as the basis for borrowing, are unlikely to really be available.

Commodities of all kinds are being affected by low demand and low selling prices. The problem giving rise to low prices seems to be related to excessive specialization, excessive use of capital goods to replace labor, and excessive use of globalization. These issues are all related to the needs of a world economy that depends on a high level of technology. In such an economy, too much of the output of the economy goes to producing devices and to paying highly trained workers. Little is left for non-elite workers.

The low selling prices of commodities makes it impossible for employers to pay adequate wages to most of their workers. These low wages, in turn, feed through to the uprisings we have been seeing in the last couple of years. These uprisings are part of “Revolutions and Wars” mentioned in Figure 1. It is difficult to see how this problem will disappear without a major change in the “World Order,” mentioned in the same figure.

Because the problem of low commodity prices is widespread, our ability to produce electrical backup of all kinds, including the ability to make batteries, can be expected to become an increasing problem. Commodities, such as lithium, suffer from low prices, not unlike the low prices for coal and oil. These low prices lead to cutbacks in their production and local uprisings.

[7] On a stand-alone basis, intermittent renewables have very limited usefulness. Their true value is close to zero.

If electricity is only available when the sun is shining, or when the wind is blowing, industry cannot plan for its use. Its use must be limited to applications where intermittency doesn’t matter, such as pumping water for animals to drink or desalinating water. No one would attempt to smelt metals with intermittent electricity because the metals would set at the wrong time, if the intermittent electricity suddenly disappeared. No one would power an elevator with intermittent electricity, because a person could easily be trapped between floors. Homeowners would not use electricity to power refrigerators, because, as likely as not, the food would spoil when electricity was off for long periods. Traffic signals would work sometimes, but not always.

Lebanon is an example of a country whose electricity system works only intermittently. It is hard to imagine that any other country would want to imitate Lebanon. Lack of reliable electricity supply leads to protests in Lebanon.

[8] The true cost of wind and solar has been hidden from everyone, using subsidies whose total cost is hard to determine.

Each country has its own way of providing subsidies to renewables. Most countries give wind and solar the subsidy of “going first.” They are often given a fixed rate as well. Both of these are subsidies. In the US, other subsidies are buried in the tax system. Recently, there has been talk of using QE to help wind and solar providers lower their cost of borrowing.

Newspapers regularly report that the price of wind and solar is at “grid parity,” but this is not an apples to apples comparison. To be useful, electricity needs to be available when users need it. The cost of storage is far too high to allow us to store electricity for weeks and months at a time.

If we were to use intermittent electricity as a substitute for fossil fuels in general, we would need to use intermittent electricity to heat homes and offices in winter. Sunshine is abundant in the summer, but not in the winter. Without storage, solar panels cannot even be counted on to provide homeowners with heat for cooking dinner after the sun sets in the evening. An incredibly huge amount of storage would be needed to store heat from summer to winter.

China reports that it has $42 billion in unpaid clean energy subsidies, and this amount is getting larger each year. Countries are now becoming poorer and the taxes they are able to collect are lower. Their ability to subsidize a high cost, unreliable electricity system is disappearing.

[9] Wind, solar, and hydroelectric today only comprise a little under 10% of the world’s energy supply. 

We are deluding ourselves if we think we can get along on such a tiny total energy supply.

Figure 6. Hydroelectric, wind, and solar electricity as a percentage of world energy supply, based on BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Few people understand what a small share of the world’s energy supply wind and solar provide today. The amounts shown in Figure 6 assume that the denominator is total energy (including oil, for example), not just electricity. In 2019, hydroelectric accounted for 6.4% of world energy supply. Wind accounted for 2.2%, and solar accounted for 1.1%. The three together amounted to 9.7% of the world’s energy supply.

None of these three energy types is suited to producing food. Oil is currently used for tilling fields, making herbicides and pesticides, and transporting refrigerated crops to market.

[10] Few people understand how important energy supply is for giving humans control over other species and pathogens.

Control over other species and pathogens has been a multistage effort. In recent years, this effort has involved antibiotics, antivirals and vaccines. Pasteurization became an important technique in the 1800s.

Humans’ control over other species started over 100,000 years ago, when humans learned to burn biomass for many uses, including cooking foods, scaring away predators, and burning down entire forests to improve their food supply. In my 2018 post, Supplemental energy puts humans in charge, I wrote about one proof of the importance of humans’ control of fire. In the lower layers of a cave in South Africa, big cats were in charge: There were no carbon deposits from fire and gnawed human bones were scattered around the cave. In the upper layers of the same cave, humans were clearly in charge. There were carbon deposits from fires, and bones of big cats that had been gnawed by humans were scattered around the cave.

We are dealing with COVID-19 now. Today’s hospitals are only possible thanks to a modern mix of energy supply. Drugs are very often made using oil. Personal protective equipment is made in factories around the world and shipped to where it is used, generally using oil for transport.

Conclusion

We do indeed appear to be headed for a Great Reset. There is little chance that Green Energy can play more than a small role, however. Leaders are often confused because of the erroneous modeling that has been done. Given that the world’s oil and coal supply seem to be declining in the near term, the chance that fossil fuel production will ever rise as high as assumptions made in the IPCC reports seems very slim.

It is true that some Green Energy devices may continue to operate for a time. But, as the world economy continues to head downhill, it will be increasingly difficult to make new renewable devices and to repair existing systems. Wholesale electricity prices can be expected to stay very low, leading to the need for continued subsidies for wind and solar.

Figure 1 indicates that we can expect more revolutions and wars at this stage in the cycle. At least part of this unrest will be related to low commodity prices and low wages. Globalization will tend to disappear. Keeping transmission lines repaired will become an increasing problem, as will many other tasks associated with keeping energy supplies available.

This entry was posted in Energy policy and tagged , , , , , by Gail Tverberg. Bookmark the permalink.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.

2,650 thoughts on “Why a Great Reset Based on Green Energy Isn’t Possible

  1. -USA war deaths in Korea, VietNam, Iraq, Afghanistan combined less than 100,000
    -China deaths from Covid-19 84,000, and they didn’t have warning it was coming
    -USA deaths about 150,000

    (this is just the start, if you know anything about virology)

    • Probably more deaths from COVID-19 in China than they are telling us.

      A huge number of indirect deaths from a change in resource use related to COVID-19. Broken supply lines leading to food shortages. Hospitals laying off workers other than COVID=19 workers. Neglected nursing home residents.

    • it is shockingly naive to believe Commmmie propagganda numbers.

      in the USA, the CDC says the IFR is 0.26%

      the USA population is about 330 million

      0.26% x 330,000,000 = 858,000 dead

      so yes, a long way to go if EVERY American gets infected.

      more reasonably, if 25% of us get infected = 215,000 dead.

      in which case, Farr’s Law is proving correct once again, and the USA is on the downward slope of the mathematical curve.

      in my region, the northeast USA, the pandemic was here and is now gone.

      what about where you live?

      • https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

        here are some interesting charts for Australia.

        they peaked in March with about 500 new cases daily, then plunged to near zero in May, and now they are back up to 500 new cases daily.

        daily deaths peaked at EIGHT in April, and now in July they have reached TEN!

        I wouldn’t say that Australia was ever in the (nearly) worldwide pandemic, based on those numbers.

        perhaps because they repressed the spread so well earlier in the year, they are now susceptible to a return of higher numbers.

        it would be alarming if this pattern repeated all over the world, but right now there is no sign that this will become a common pattern.

        • I don’t know about others but I am on the same page with you and the good Stanford doctor. The USA flattened the curve and thus it is taking longer for the numbers to get to their final resting place. If this last past the election I will be surprised. Now the economy on the other hand…

      • I’m in Central Oregon—-
        We have a very low infection rate.
        We shall see how this progresses—-
        We need 70%(at least) infection for herd immunity (year to years away).

        • Central Oregon is on fire with covid thanks in large part to Visit Bend. They promote tourism to Bend, Oregon. They were the ones behind the big increase in 4th of July fireworks budget and getting the town, which only has tourism to earn income, filled with out of town visitors. The tourists are still there – and the covid is very much out of control where the local tourist board has gone above and beyond to infect what once was an incredible place. St Charles the local hospital system is treating a lot of tourists who come in with life threatening conditions due to getting corona virus.
          So y’all, come visit Bend this summer, it’s awesome! Even if Visit Bend is run by a moron or two – don’t listen to me, listen to them and come spend your vacation dollars on copays at St. Charles!

          • or Oregon might be sckcrewed.

            Virologists may not know this, but there is another high risk category besides older and unhealthier people.

            that category is immmature foooolish reckkkless stooooopppppid and careless people.

          • Hint:
            Bend
            Known cases of COVID-19 494
            Negative COVID-19 tests 16,582
            COVID-19 deaths 5

            This is out of a population of over 100,000

        • I hope your area is mostly mature intelligent people.

          That would partly explain the low infection rate, which should remain low, as far as I am reading the data.

          some bigger cities (NYC etc) and denser populations (NJ etc) may be at or over the herd immunity threshold already.

          once most of these get past their first wave, like now in “The South”, we in sparser populations will be safer.

    • 60,000 deaths a year in the USA from opiate overdoses. This has been the approximate number every year for the last ten years. Say 500,000 deaths. Opiate addictions, along with meth, cocaine, and other “powder drugs” also have huge negative collateral effects on familyies and communities, and this epidemic is especially destructive of the young, killing very few people in the over-80 age group.

      But I am still waiting for this to panic the “public health” peope who, seeing an epidemic of a basic flu, have rushed to quarantine the healthy.

      COVID = COMPLETE TOTALITARIAN FRAUD

      • > 60,000 deaths a year in the USA from opiate overdoses.

        This is causing a slow and small shift in the genetics of the US population. Only something around 10% of the population *can* be addicted to opiates. (I am not among them.)

        Something like this occurred over thousands of years with respect to alcohol. You can see it clearly in the relative problems alcohol causes in various regions. We know the specific genes involved in some cases.

        • I (hope) I do not understand the tendency of your comment. You may like to clarify.

          That aside, opiate (and other drug) addicts have plenty of children.

          • > That aside, opiate (and other drug) addicts have plenty of children.

            For evolutionary selection to work, all they need to do is have slightly fewer children than people who don’t carry the genes for being vulnerable to drugs (including alcohol).

            The serious opiate addicts I knew back in the 60s and 70s had a high death rate before they had children. On the other hand, I knew one guy who tried his best to get addicted and failed. He had the “cat reaction” to heroin, where all the others who shot up were zonked out, he was running around.

  2. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3972343

    That link shows two different satellite pics of the 3 Gorges Dam; Google & CASC. The latter pic shows no visible deformation from that height, although the Chinese govt. has admitted deformation within a range the Dam is designed to handle.

    I’ve seen other videos and pics of the Dam and they all look like it’s straight, i.e. not deformed to the eye. So this whole bit about the Dam being about to collapse is likely overblown hype. I say hype because if it had been as deformed as seen on the Google pic it surely would have continued to deform and potentially collapse.

      • Sometime over the last week, one of the Crossroads daily news alerts said that the CCP admitted the 3G dam had moved slightly. I can’t remember which video, and cannot otherwise verify that, but that is what was said.

      • “So the question is whether the deformation we are seeing is really mostly a “photoshopped” type of effect.”

        I don’t think a Google ‘satellite’ image would be a good basis for any comparison of the type being discussed. They are often stitched together an that alone can lead to significant distorting effects.

      • China in Focus – another YT weekday daily news video focusing on China.
        21 July 2020, Starts at 1 minute:
        “After the Three Gorges dam saw its highest level of flooding this year, authorities admitted that the dam has distorted, leaked and moved.”

        China’s Three Gorges Dam ‘moved, leaked, and distorted,’ Xinjiang’s capital declares wartime status

    • yes, a good read.

      he doesn’t seem up to speed on where the economy is, and I suspect that is due to the dozen or so novels he has written in the past 5 years taking up much of his time. He’s 58, gotta start thinking about retirement funds, and perhaps getting his book series produced by the HBO or Netflix types.

      so he still has the weak idea that oil prices will be rising.

      otherwise, the ideas about the bloated administrative jobs are good reading. In a way, this is along the lines of the idea of non-essential subsystems shrinking or being eliminated by the resetting self-organizing shrinking economy.

      he does tend to repeat one other weak idea. He states that all previous civilizations have had a Long Descent of stairstep declines, and thus our globally networked high tech IC must also follow the same pattern.

      it could, it might, but it is not a MUST that IC declines gradually. It could collapse swiftly, so he is a bit illllogical in insisting that it must decline gradually.

      I would grade the article as B- or C+.

        • He has when he was blogging on the Arch Druid Report and according to him it’s not the end of the world as it will have a more localized effect. I can’t say I agree with him but that’s his view on NPP’s.

        • Yes, he minimizes the nuclear issue as leading only to some clearly known dead zones here and there, nothing more. Phew, what a relief!

          His pose as an infallible guide and seer leads him in to all kinds of absurdities, which is unfortunate as he does make some good points in some areas.

          ‘Collapse now and avoid the rush’ is his favourite mantra, which makes little sense as one has to live within the current paradigm almost entirely in order to survive.

          ‘Reduce your vulnerabilities to disruptions as much as possible’ would make more sense, but isn’t so catchy.

          It’s notable that he has given up on growing food himself -‘Green Wizardry’ – as it is better for him to be in a cheap town and concentrate on writing, which pays his bills and taxes.

          Now he likes to say that Green Wizardry wasn’t really about self-sufficiency, that is ‘a shallow interpretation’ of what he meant…..

          It’s never worth while entering into debate with him. although he is becoming a little more tolerant of questioning.

      • Personally I find that JMG, Orlov and Martensen are not worth reading anymore, which is a pity as I used to really enjoy them. The agendas they now push are not in touch with reality.

      • “He states that all previous civilizations have had a Long Descent.”

        That is simply not true. Just from memory: Minoan, Carthaginian, Babylonian, Classic Mayan, Maurya, and, of course, Byzantine.

          • A good point. I would not consider 100 years a “long descent”; it is less than two human lifetimes. But on this point, I am happy to agree to differ.

    • Economically, so far COVID-time is a re-run of the GFC except worse. More self-inflicted damage, more blatant free money to the 1%, more random, idiotic bureaucratic edicts etc.

      A big underlying issue along with energy is the ageing population. 2 points:
      1. We don’t/won’t have enough working age people vs the elderly.
      2. The innately more fearful thinking process of the elderly drives a fearful, knee jerk society. Hence the overreaction to COVID.

      See: https://econimica.blogspot.com/2019/10/america-2020-through-2040the-era-of-80.html

      But we’re still (capable of) cranking out 80M+-ish barrels of oil per day, so a lot of stuff can happen and eventually self preservation will drive behaviour to get essential things done. We’ll muddle through with people and living standards dropping off along the way.

      So I side with JMG, except the LTG decline graph is really a series of step downs, like this COVID one. Looks smooth from a distance though.

      • 1. We don’t/won’t have enough working age people vs the elderly.

        The dependency of th eelderly is far from being the biggest problem, as they will soon pass. A much bigger probelm is the vast number of young people and people who are still being born who by nature or nurture are 100% dependents/takers/destroyers in a modern (such as it is) society.

        • I think the issue is too little growth in cheap-to-extract energy products, and too much complexity to try to work around this problem. The result is a very unequal society. Some are well rewarded; many can hardly get by. They often cannot find jobs, or if they do find jobs, the jobs pay very poorly.

          It is not nature or nurture that is the problem. It is the way a self-organizing economy handles “not enough to go around.” The ones who get left out are “100% dependents/takers/destroyers in a modern (such as it is) society.”

          It is not the way we would like it, but that is the way it is.

          • “It is not nature or nurture that is the problem.”

            Resource constraints are a fact. It is also a fact that either nature or nature determine how human beings (differentially) respond to those constraints.

        • Very true; in an effort to provide enough younger workers to pay for the elderly population, the UK govt., for instance, has filed the major cities up with immigrants from Asia and Africa, and these tend to have 3-5 children per woman (based on observation). London is just popping at the seems these days.

          This will ensure a large and probably rather angry urban population with nothing much to do, and certainly only prospects mostly in poorly-paid sectors, in the near future.

          Cynical exploiters of cheap and vulnerable labour, often immigrants themselves, and the well-organised drug gangs, are taking advantage of these poor people already.

        • Kim, a reassuring quote from Hillaire Belloc, from another time when armies of young barbarians were a problem: “Whatever happens we have got the Maxim gun, and they have not.” If the worst happens, and I truly hope it will not, the Antifa thugs and their camp followers will be mowed down like ripe grain. There are still many people of good will who will defend the laws as they would the walls of the city.

    • I’m hoping for a JMG, Martenson, kunstler type crash rather then a Tverberg, Fast Eddy collapse. I can’t plan for the latter, there is no point. But I can do a little with a slow collapse.

      Some reason I can’t log into WordPress acct. on mobile.

      • It is becoming clear to me that collapse takes somewhat longer than I originally thought, but I don’t know how much longer. I don’t know what would happen if a financial system failure suddenly led to a situation of “every country on its own,” for example. Rather than high prices on energy products as the collapse appears, I see spare parts disappearing, because of broken supply lines. You may have to forget about finding replacement tires for your car, for example.

        Regarding WordPress on mobile, were you able to log in on mobile when I was using my previous “theme?” I just changed to this theme with this post. It is not too different from my old theme. It is supposed to be better on mobile devices, but it may not be. In theory, I can go back to my old theme. The layout is just slightly different.

  3. https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/28/europe/russia-coronavirus-vaccine-approval-intl/index.html

    ‘Exclusive: Russia claims it’s on track to approve Covid-19 vaccine by mid-August. But speed of process raises questions’

    “While some global vaccines are in the third phase of trials, the Russian vaccine is yet to complete its second phase. Developers plan to complete that phase by August 3, and then conduct the third phase of testing in parallel with the vaccination of the medical workers.”

    This is fascinating because the Russian vaccine’s phase II testing will only be complete on Aug. 3rd and then they will begin phase III testing. So even before having phase III test results they will begin inoculating healthcare workers with the vaccine.

    Also, there are no phase I & II Russian test results available to the public. So no one knows what type of adverse reactions or how severe they may have been.

    In this regard Russia is no further ahead than Moderna, Astra-Zeneca & China’s vaccine, which are also ready to begin phase III testing. So this is not a Sputnik moment, but rather a jump to the front of the line BEFORE taking the major step of phase III testing, while comically claiming it’s a Sputnik moment.

    I wonder if the US will offer billions for this vaccine too?

    • I wonder how many guinea pigs will take it unless it’s made mandatory by the Federal Gov’t. If it does happen this is nothing more than medical tyranny and it needs to be opposed on all levels. I know I won’t volunteer until I’m forcibly strapped down on a gurney.

      This whole Covid 19 BS has been played to the benefit of centralized government. They won’t stop the fear and hysteria until people are begging for injections whether they work or not, safe or not. And that’s what Bill Gates and other Globalists are hoping for.

      • Hint:
        “despite the devastating burden that COVID-19 has imposed so far, most of the world is still susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Most countries have yet to see sufficient depletion of susceptibility to meaningfully reduce infection spread, but such effects are likely to shape the future. Models projecting into this future have evaluated policy scenarios and assessed the potential impact of seasonal variation in transmission . Notably, the immunological details on which these models rely (duration of immunity, whether immunity blocks transmission or prevents disease after infection, etc.) remain unclear. Models are one tool among many for tackling the pandemic, but they are perhaps the best framework for grappling with these possible futures.”

        • I would hope that the model would also include the economic damage done by various types of attempts to control COVID-19. I think that this is what has been left out. Also, if more effort is put into controlling COVID-19, the less medical resources can be used to fight other illnesses, such as TB, malaria, and cancer.

          We find ourselves with all of the recommendations being made by people who are clueless about how the overall system works. Epidemiologists seem to think that we have such an advanced medical system today, we can solve any medical problem. That isn’t really true. A problem can require too many resources sucked from other segments of the economy to really be fixable. We can’t be giving everyone $100+ COVID tests, practically every day, without sinking the economy (as an extreme example).

          • “Also, if more effort is put into controlling COVID-19, the less medical resources can be used to fight other illnesses, such as TB, malaria, and cancer.”

            Capitalism?
            I think you understand the dynamics.

          • ” A problem can require too many resources sucked from other segments of the economy to really be fixable. We can’t be giving everyone $100+ COVID tests, practically every day, without sinking the economy (as an extreme example).”

            Talking to a friend yesterday he mentioned that his wife has developed a “bad back” and was advised an MRI scan was required but she was unbale to book one via the UK NHS for some reason. Likely Covid related.

            So they paid to go privately. He is well into the retirement age group though you would think him perhaps 10 years younger than his age. She is somewhat younger but still in the retirement age group and still very active.

            Today I heard, via one of my daughters, about the father of a friend of hers who had skin cancer some years ago (successfully treated) but is now seeing a recurrence. He has been offered and assessment appointment and biopsy with an 18 month wait. By which time he may well have succumbed.

            It seems that resources are on hold “just in case” there is a dramatic resurgence of the virus combined with winter flu.

            When our Prime Minister touted the Slogan “Save our NHS” and started his campaign of sound bites to which so many seemed to subscribe and follow the lockdown instruction avidly (except himself some of his own family.) I suspect they had in mind the fast return of “normal” Medical services rather then their partial suspension.

            • GP, outrageously long waiting times, endless runarounds, denial of service, and sheer incompetence *are* normal for the UK National Health Service.

            • “GP, outrageously long waiting times, endless runarounds, denial of service, and sheer incompetence *are* normal for the UK National Health Service.”

              A&E yes.

              Not so much in recent years for other services – depending on local circumstances.

              Effectiveness is another matter …

        • ““despite the devastating burden that COVID-19 has imposed so far, most of the world is still susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection. ”

          Hint: the world is still susceptible to “Death”. Covid 19 is just another way the Grim Reaper gets to visit you.

        • “Models are one tool among many for tackling the pandemic, but they are perhaps the best framework for grappling with these possible futures.”

          “Models projecting into this future have evaluated policy scenarios and assessed the potential impact of seasonal variation in transmission.”

          Models can be worthless. The original models of infection and death rates were worthless. What a bunch of gobbledegook.

          Duncan…I just LUV your hints.

    • The theory is based on deforestation. Perhaps current society could end in 20 to 40 years.

      Yes, there are a lot of different way our economy could end. If deforestation were the only one, it might be 20 to 40 years away.

    • “So the most effective way to increase our chances of survival is to shift focus from extreme self-interest to a sense of stewardship for each other, other species, and the ecosystems in which we find ourselves.”

      so then there’s no chance.

      • One of Chris Martenson’s better quoptes was: “If humans are given the choice, they are wired to always take the easy way out.”

      • Build a dyson sphere around the sun??
        They talk about this in the same article as deforestation, talk about clueless. They obviously do not have a clue about resources, especially the resources needed to put a dyson sphere around the sun. Firstly there would be no Earth as we would have totally consumed every molecule before we had built the sphere a fraction of the way around the sun, so where would we be living??

        Time for Keith to weigh in…

        • > Build a dyson sphere around the sun??
          They talk about this in the same article as deforestation, talk about clueless. They obviously do not have a clue about resources, especially the resources needed to put a dyson sphere around the sun. Firstly there would be no Earth as we would have totally consumed every molecule before we had built the sphere a fraction of the way around the sun, so where would we be living??

          > Time for Keith to weigh in…

          Dyson spheres look to be unlikely due to both material limits and the fact they can’t be in orbit. Many years ago, though, Eric Drexler and I proposed surrounding a star with a hemisphere of light sails. They would be floating in light pressure, coupled to the star by gravity but not in orbit. Why would people do something like this? It’s a way to move a star, the whole thing is a fusion-photon rocket. It’s a way to travel and stay home. It is not much for performance, but over the typical lifetime of a G type star, it could travel between galaxies. You can also warm up an M type star so it looks like a G if you want.

          A much smaller project is known as Dyson Dots. They are a way to adjust the sunlight reaching earth by very large sunlight blockers in Earth-Sun L1. That project is probably out of range for a planet-bound civilization, but not for a space-based one.

          • Unfortunately the L1 point is unstable. A “sun blocker” there would be pushed off by light pressure, and fall back to Earth. Not a good outcome. Only the L4 and L5 (“Trojan”) points are stable.

            • > Unfortunately the L1 point is unstable.

              That’s true, but it takes relatively little station-keeping fuel to stay there.

              > A “sun blocker” there would be pushed off by light pressure, and fall back to Earth.

              The JBIS paper which discusses “Dyson Dots” deals with these problems. I believe they placed the sunshade inside L1 to compensate for the light pressure. (Nine newtons per square km.)

              > Not a good outcome. Only the L4 and L5 (“Trojan”) points are stable.

              True, but the other points are useful.

              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lagrangian_point#Sun%E2%80%93Earth

              ” Sun–Earth L1 is suited for making observations of the Sun–Earth system. Objects here are never shadowed by Earth or the Moon and, if observing Earth, always view the sunlit hemisphere. The first mission of this type was the 1978 International Sun Earth Explorer 3 (ISEE-3) mission used as an interplanetary early warning storm monitor for solar disturbances.[21] Since June 2015, DSCOVR has orbited the L1 point. Conversely it is also useful for space-based solar telescopes, because it provides an uninterrupted view of the Sun and any space weather (including the solar wind and coronal mass ejections) reaches L1 a few hours before Earth. Solar telescopes currently located around L1 include the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and Advanced Composition Explorer. ”

              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L5_Society

              Having founded the L5 Society, I know a bit about Lagrangian points.

            • For hkeithhenson:

              Thank you for your detailed comments. And congratulations on being a founder of the L5 society, an organisation I greatly admire. On the L1 problem: yes, it takes only a small amount of effort to maintain an artefact there; but the problem is exactly how to apply that force. Whither is it drifting? And in full sunlight and full earthlight, can we observe well enough to estimate the direction and velocity of the perturbation? I believe so, but doubt it would be easy; and one meteor could take out the requisite sensors. Once again, this proposal seems to be working against Nature, not with her. But if you disagree, I shall defer to your far broader expertise.

            • > can we observe well enough to estimate the direction and velocity of the perturbation?

              Yes. This is called “station keeping” and it is highly developed. It’s the way the satellite operators keep all the GEO communication satellites where they belong.

              Still, it is not obvious to me that humans will build space colonies at L4 and L5, or for that matter anywhere at all. For speed of light reasons and cooling, civilization might be sunk in the deep ocean.

              There does not seem to be any physical reasons people could not go off across the galaxy. The main problem would be getting far out of step with those who stayed behind, particularly if you are slowing your perception to get subjectively shorter trips.

            • Keith, I suspect you are here comparing apples to oranges. GPS satellites are already in stable orbits, so it needs only a small force on a known vector to adjust their orbits. An object at L1 has no stable orbit, so the problem of keeping it on station seems rather harder to resolve. And, of course, it has never actually been done.

            • > Keith, I suspect you are here comparing apples to oranges. GPS satellites are already in stable orbits, so it needs only a small force on a known vector to adjust their orbits.

              From memory, it’s about 50 m/s per year to keep a GEO communication satellite in place.

              > An object at L1 has no stable orbit, so the problem of keeping it on station seems rather harder to resolve. And, of course, it has never actually been done.

              Actually, it has. I posted a pointer to the Wikipedia article which mentioned there are three spacecraft currently in the Earth/Sun L1 orbit. And the Chinese have a communication relay satellite in the Earth/Moon L2. The James Webb Space Telescope is destined for the Earth/Sun L2.

              The most interesting use of Earth/Moon L1 is a lunar elevator going out through L1. Needs no station keeping at all. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerome_Pearson https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_space_elevator A lunar elevator has not been built yet, but Spectra cable looks like it will do the job.

          • If a Dyson sphere is a non-starter, at least the old man’s namesake has given us some very SF-ish looking vacuum cleaners.

            Keith, given the limited amount of interplanetary matter available in our solar system, how would you feel about a Larry Niven-style Ringworld or something more modest?

            • I knew Freeman for many years and am still in contact with his daughter Esther. I don’t know how (if at all) they are related to the Vacuum cleaner Dysons. One of my GG grandmothers was Mary Virginia Dyson.

              Re Ringworlds, one of the cool things you can get out of the net is finding where you commented on something a long time ago, in this case, 30 years ago

              https://www.cs.cmu.edu/afs/cs/usr/mnr/st/std076

              LITTLE RINGWORLDS

              Do we really need Larry Niven’s “scrith” to build ringworlds or can we get by with known, or at least projected materials? If you leave most of the structure non-spinning (or spinning retrograde very slowly) and support a much lighter spinning part on superconducting magnetic bearings, O’Neill-type cylinders can be built large enough to house a continent. I have my doubts about cooling such a thing because radiator mass per unit of radiation goes up as the square root of the absolute size of a radiator. Giant O’Neill cylinders are not a particularly efficient use of mass to get living area. But, as Eric Drexler pointed out, there is an even _less_ elegant way to build one-g ringworlds. You spin a ringworld supported by bearings, pile all the non-spinning mass on the outside, and let the star’s gravity acting on the mass keep the ringworld from flying apart.

            • this forum was better when the main debate was about the precise width of the flat earth

            • Thanks Keith!!

              Norman, there are things going on in your imagination that the normies around you can’t comprehend or see the point of bothering to try, which is why when you attempt to explain some of your excellent ideas, their eyes glass over. “The End of More is such a bore,” they say; “give us no more of the end of more.”

              It’s much the same with Keith’s excellent ideas, most of which are imaginings or thought experiments that have not been realized in the material world as far as we can tell. All the best new ideas are bound to sound off the wall to the great mass of normies, because the minds normies are bounded by the conventional wisdom and lost in the fog of illusion and consensus trance.

              This next poem is taken from Sonnets and Verse, put together almost a century ago by Hillarie Belloc.

              NEWDIGATE POEM

              A PRIZE POEM SUBMITTED BY MR LAMBKIN, THEN SCHOLAR AND LATER FELLOW OF BURFORD COLLEGE, TO THE EXAMINERS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD ON THE PRESCRIBED POETIC THEME SET BY THEM IN 1893, “THE BENEFITS OF THE ELECTRIC LIGHT”

              Hail, Happy Muse, and touch the tuneful string!
              The benefits conferred by Science I sing.
              Under the kind Examiners’ direction
              I only write about them in connection
              With benefits which the Electric Light
              Confers on us; especially at night.
              These are my theme, of these my song shall rise.
              My lofty head shall swell to strike the skies.
              And tears of hopeless love bedew the maiden’s eyes.
              Descend, O Muse, from thy divine abode,
              To Osney, on the Seven Bridges Road;
              For under Osney’s solitary shade
              The bulk of the Electric Light is made.
              Here are the works;—from hence the current flows
              Which (so the Company’s prospectus goes)
              Can furnish to Subscribers hour by hour
              No less than sixteen thousand candle power,
              All at a thousand volts. (It is essential
              To keep the current at this high potential
              In spite of the considerable expense.)
              The Energy developed represents,
              Expressed in foot-tons, the united forces
              Of fifteen elephants and forty horses.
              But shall my scientific detail thus
              Clip the dear wings of Buoyant Pegasus?
              Shall pure statistics jar upon the ear
              That pants for Lyric accents loud and clear?
              Shall I describe the complex Dynamo
              Or write about its Commutator? No!
              To happier fields I lead my wanton pen,
              The proper study of mankind is men.
              Awake, my Muse! Portray the pleasing sight
              That meets us where they make Electric Light.
              Behold the Electrician where he stands:
              Soot, oil, and verdigris are on his hands;
              Large spots of grease defile his dirty clothes,
              The while his conversation drips with oaths.
              Shall such a being perish in its youth?
              Alas! it is indeed the fatal truth.
              In that dull brain, beneath that hair unkempt,
              Familiarity has bred contempt.
              We warn him of the gesture all too late:
              Oh, Heartless Jove! Oh, Adamantine Fate!
              A random touch—a hand’s imprudent slip—
              The Terminals—a flash—a sound like “Zip!”
              A smell of burning fills the started Air—
              The Electrician is no longer there!
              But let us turn with true Artistic scorn
              From facts funereal and from views forlorn
              Of Erebus and Blackest midnight born.
              Arouse thee, Muse! and chaunt in accents rich
              The interesting processes by which
              The Electricity is passed along:
              These are my theme: to these I bend my song.
              It runs encased in wood or porous brick
              Through copper wires two millimetres thick,
              And insulated on their dangerous mission
              By indiarubber, silk, or composition.
              Here you may put with critical felicity
              The following question: “What is Electricity?”
              “Molecular Activity,” say some,
              Others when asked say nothing, and are dumb.
              Whatever be its nature, this is clear:
              The rapid current checked in its career,
              Baulked in its race and halted in its course[J]
              Transforms to heat and light its latent force:
              It needs no pedant in the lecturer’s chair
              To prove that light and heat are present there.
              The pear-shaped vacuum globe, I understand,
              Is far too hot to fondle with the hand.
              While, as is patent to the meanest sight,
              The carbon filament is very bright.
              As for the lights they hang about the town,
              Some praise them highly, others run them down.
              This system (technically called the Arc),
              Makes some passages too light, others too dark.
              But in the house the soft and constant rays
              Have always met with universal praise.
              For instance: if you want to read in bed
              No candle burns beside your curtain’s head,
              Far from some distant corner of the room
              The incandescent lamp dispels the gloom,
              And with the largest print need hardly try
              The powers of any young and vigorous eye.
              Aroint thee, Muse! Inspired the poet sings!
              I cannot help observing future things!
              Life is a vale, its paths are dark and rough
              Only because we do not know enough:
              When Science has discovered something more
              We shall be happier than we were before.
              Hail, Britain, Mistress of the Azure Main,
              Ten thousand Fleets sweep over thee in vain!
              Hail, Mighty Mother of the Brave and Free,
              That beat Napoleon, and gave birth to me!
              Thou that canst wrap in thine emblazoned robe
              One quarter of the habitable globe.
              Thy mountains, wafted by a favouring breeze,
              Like mighty rocks withstand the stormy seas.
              Thou art a Christian Commonwealth; and yet
              Be thou not all unthankful—nor forget
              As thou exultest in Imperial Might
              The Benefits of the Electric Light.

            • repetition of words, as i used to point out to FE, is the hallmark of the bar-propper

              who

              pint in one hand, and the other formed into a pointy finger, fills his vacant spaces with hoaxes, plots and conspiracies, and is wont to dispense them to all who have not had the immediate foresight to leave before he gets started on his latest theories.

              And I would grant HK the intelligence to state his own case against me if he was interested enough to do so.

              which

              as we diverge so radically, he probably isn’t.

              originality is all.

            • > And I would grant HK the intelligence to state his own case against me if he was interested enough to do so.

              which

              as we diverge so radically, he probably isn’t.

              Not sure what you want.

              My main objection to stuff that gets posted on OFW is people being certain they know how the future will turn out. If we spotted a big asteroid headed our way, then ok, the laws of orbital mechanics make the future certain, baring human efforts to divert the asteroid.

              But things like nanotechnology/AI or power satellites are not certain, especially in timing. Even less so is how humans might respond. I have studied this since the 1970s and I don’t know how things will turn out.

              A relatively minor complaint is people posting things that are just wrong, and would take less than a minute to search with Google or find on Wikipedia. Ghod knows we have enough problems even when we get things as accurate as we can.

            • > It’s much the same with Keith’s excellent ideas,

              It’s worth pointing out that I originated very few of the ideas I mention. It’s one of my characteristics (or faults) that I am meticulous about giving credit where due–at least in writing.

              Heh, heh. My brother read the Heinlein novels when he was in college. I had read them in junior high and they were a source of many ideas I talked about. I remember him commenting one time that after reading them that he realized I wasn’t so smart, just had read a lot.

    • Yawn. There is 100% probability our civilisation will collapse, sometime. There is 100% probability we will become extinct, sometime. The truth is, nobody knows when, certainly not a bunch of theoretical physicists. Their physics isn’t too good either: at one point in their report they suggest building a Dyson Sphere to capture more solar energy. Simple Newtonian physics tells you that such a sphere has no stable orbit: in other words, it would crash into the Sun.

  4. Saw this on YouTube of Jerome Powell…the most powerful man in the world to save the day

    And he has some help to do it! The Sheeple must be saved from the wolf wolf virus

    Well, the Fed had to inflate the debt away…..

    • I wonder what the clearing of the throat many times is? Is he really nervous or is it that he has no idea what he is doing and is trying so hard to pretend that he has all of this under control.

      • From clips I’ve seen, he’s putting the best face on a dismal, damn if I do and damned if I don’t situation. Obviously, in good conscious the Fed is giving fair warning to all on what’s up
        WHATS UPp

        So, the tax that will had will be in depreciating currency, same as it ever was.
        Yes, I agree, he looks uncomfortable and pensive and knows he’s walking on eggshells. The once powerful US Federal Reverse is losing its status as the only game in town.
        Never thought in my lifetime the Chairman would come out and say what he just said about future 😂 actions?
        Oh, it’s so bad the CEO came out and afmitted

        JetBlue CEO warns of ‘day of reckoning’ for airlines as coronavirus continues to devastate demand
        PUBLISHED WED, JUL 29 2020 1:15 PM EDT

        Yep, the day of reckoning is coming to us all, Brother
        Oh, almost forgot..Got Precious Metals?
        Seems I read Pension funds and Institutional investment firms are adding them to their mix, wonder why?

  5. https://townhall.com/tipsheet/micaelaburrow/2020/07/28/redfield-says-more-abovebase-suicides-than-covid-deaths-n2573278

    “Center for Disease Control Director Robert Redfield testified in a Buck Institute webinar that suicides and drug overdoses have surpassed the death rate for COVID-19. Redfield argued that lockdowns and lack of public schooling constituted a disproportionally negative impact on young peoples’ mental health.

    “We’re seeing, sadly, far greater suicides now than we are deaths from COVID. We’re seeing far greater deaths from drug overdose that are above excess that we had as background than we are seeing the deaths from COVID,” he said.”

    So, it’s all going according to plan, right?

    As they say, too stupid to be stupid.

    • I am wondering if Redfield means is that for some age group (say, 15 – 50 year olds) the number of suicide and drug overdose deaths is exceeding the number of COVID-19 deaths.

      People within the CDC seem to be able to pull off extracts of data, long before the data is fully complete. There was an interesting report showing that the number of deaths of infants had fallen during the lockdown. It was almost as if the lack of immunizations had stopped some major cause of death, such as Sudden Infant Death Syndrome.

      • “It was almost as if the lack of immunizations had stopped some major cause of death, such as Sudden Infant Death Syndrome.”

        Ha ha ha. Imagine my surprise if that were found to be so.

        • ““It was almost as if the lack of immunizations had stopped some major cause of death, such as Sudden Infant Death Syndrome.”

          Ha ha ha. Imagine my surprise if that were found to be so.”

          On the other hand others have postulated that the disproportionately low apparent effect of the virus on younger age groups seem to be aligned with the generations that have been receiving multiple vaccinations for a variety of severe and possibly deadly illnesses that have previously plagued the world but are now much reduced and considered to be “under control”.

          It seems that there is much yet to be discussed and understood. If understanding is indeed possible.

      • There was a study in Egypt a few years ago on infant mortality.

        Quite by accident, because it would never be allowed as an official study point, the data showed kids following the vaccination schedule had a 4x greater risk of death from all causes vs non-vaccinated kids.

        Oops!

        i thought I’d saved the report on my PC, but I can’t find it now.

  6. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-doctor-warns-chronically-ill-patients-young-people-take-covid-19-seriously/

    I know a lot of people have been led to assert that someone is either a case with little or no symptoms or tiny percentage die, or you don’t get it, i.e. covid-19, however here’s an article warning young people to take the virus seriously.

    “However, recent studies have shown that even when patients survive the coronavirus — which most do — the disease can have long-lasting effects such as brain and heart damage that could take months or longer to recover from. “I am very worried about a new generation of chronically ill patients,” Kass said.

    She recalled treating coronavirus patients who at first “look totally fine” until lab tests show “they are basically on fire on the inside.”

    “Their heart, their lungs, their blood vessels, you know, their kidneys, it really does affect all the organs,” Kass explained. “There will be evidence of this having really detrimental effects on the body.”

    “One recent study from the U.K. found troubling signs of “brain complications” in severe coronavirus patients — and while the complications were more likely to result in a stroke in older people, younger people also showed signs of confusion and newly-diagnosed psychiatric conditions.”

    “A number of recent studies have found the virus may cause an acute inflammatory response in the heart, increased blood clotting and cardiac problems.”

    “We see now, in the heart, that there may be long-standing effects of the inflammation and scarring that occurs after having this virus.”

    Please take a moment to read those potential symptoms above. It’s like rolling the dice getting this virus.

    • Do we have an alternative? That is the big question.

      Does everything we do to try to push COVID-19 away have such a terribly negative impact on the economy that its impact indirectly kills more people (not necessarily the same people) instead?

      Are we kidding ourselves about a vaccine really being a solution? Will it only be a partial solution for a few rich people in a few rich countries?

      • Bingo!
        This is just the start comrades—
        Sit back, it is going to be a long ride, with many twists and turns.

    • It’s like rolling the dice living.

      I had an antibody test last week that revealed I am infected with the virus that causes chickenpox.

      Does this make me a chickenpox case?

      No, of course not.

      I had chickenpox over 50 years ago, recovered, and ever since I’ve been harboring the dreaded varicella zoster virus (VZV). One day if my immune system gets lazy, I may develop shingles as a result.

      If you test positive for COVID-19 through a PCR or an antibody test, does that mean you are a COVID-19 case?

      Officially, yes.

      Does it matter if you have developed no symptoms and your immune system successfully thought off the dreaded the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)?

      Does it matter if you have a 90% chance of developing zero symptoms and that in any case you can be easily cured with hydroxychloroquine and zinc.

      Not at all. You are still officially a covid case and you should be afraid—very afraid, and you should wear a mask and you should have the word COVID-19 branded on your forehead.

    • Authored by “Dr. Dara Kass, an ER doctor and Yahoo News medical contributor, …”

      Yes, the same Yahoo that censors all news about the virus that is not likely to induce panic.

    • ‘Basically on fire on the inside’ is irresponsible and unprofessional language. It is also meaningless.

      This can only serve to induce panic and even terror when the greatest need is to keep out heads over this issue.

      Rather interesting stats coming out if India: 50% of slum dwellers estimated to have had COVID, and they haven’t been dying like flies as many expected they would, due to their poverty, over-crowding and lack of advanced medical services.

      While we are being encourage to tremble like jellies and to think it’s all over unless a vaccine arrives, and govts continue to inflict terrible and one suspects irreversible damage on economies through continued and probably unjustifiable lock-downs.

      • I have an Indian friend who quit seriously swears that the reason Indians are relatively immune to COVID is because they eat an awful amount of curries. But it could just be that they have so many germs in circulation that everyone’s immune system is as strong as Conan the Barbarian.

        • They are always close to each other, because there are so many people. This keeps the immune systems operating well. There are a number of studies showing that church attendance is positively correlated with increased longevity. There is also evidence that they same people who attend church regularly tend to socialize much more with friends. Somehow, this seems to work very well for the immune system. But modelers leave this out.

        • Turmeric and capsaicin are supposed to have anti-viral properties, so perhaps that plays a role.

    • ” younger people also showed signs of confusion and newly-diagnosed psychiatric conditions.”

      I’d think you’d be hard-pressed to find ANYbody without those signs, these days.

  7. This video has been censored by YouTube, FB and Twitter. A group of proper doctors—you know, medical folks who actually treat patients and save lives—who are on the frontlines of the COVID-19 pandemic, held a press conference in DC to debunk a plethora official and mass media lies told about about Covid.

    They are saying that hydroxychloroquine and zinc given to mild cases will make people feel right as rain in no time.
    This doctor from Nigeria who works in Texas has treated over 350 Covid-19 case and hasn’t lost a single one. She reports many patients coming to see her are terrified of the diagnosis. My impression is that many American people are being terrorized to death by their government and media. Video’s like this should help calm people down.

    https://banned.video/watch?id=5f1fc7a468370e02f29f34cf

    • Good video, but will it work on people entrained by 24×7 MSM propaganda, Govt fear-porn and BigTech censorship? Doubt it.

      How strange that Hydroxychloroquine, a cheap, effective cure is more-or-less banned. Could that perhaps be helpful to Big Pharma?

      189 COVID deaths in 6 months in Aust, with a spike from the second wave happening now. Border closures, lockdowns, panic.

      Normal deaths in that period = 79,300, so 189 = 0.24% increase in deaths.

      Normal flu season deaths in the range 1,500 – 4,000.

    • Only today I saw a CNN report on Dr Stella Immanuel and her work. They couldn’t fault her credentials or her track record of success. So they mocked her for being from Africa, called her a “witch doctor” and other names, and photoshopped her picture to make her look blacker than black. If you want to see systemic racism in action, look no further than the sneering white liars and presstitutes on CNN.

  8. Further below Minority of One posted a comment that included a video that covered, in part, the threat of the Three Gorges Dam bursting. If this is indeed a distinct possibility, the Chinese government’s apparent lack of significant action to reduce the threat of catastrophe (such as evacuation planning, fortifying river defenses, etc.) poses a conundrum. A dam burst would be close to a country, if not global civilization, killer. As I noted early on in the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, why would the Chinese government commit economic suicide unless it thought it was facing an existential threat? The government clearly cares little about the welfare of its people, as past politically-induced famines, easily preventable accidents/disasters, rampant pollution, and many other incidents illustrate. A dam burst would be an existential threat. Why no forceful action, even if it can’t be prevented? And why the extreme over-reaction to COVID? I’ve yet to see a consistent and coherent explanation for this, especially in light of these other kinds of threats/problems/disasters.

    • There is no place to evacuate the huge number of people to. And if their homes were destroyed, the businesses they worked for would likely be destroyed as well. Those who came back would have no livelihood and no place to live. The large number of homeless would represent a huge threat to the economy. They would easily catch diseases of all kinds and transmit them to others. They would likely participate in uprisings as well.

      I remember hearing a similar issue in Japan, at the time of the Fukushima event. There is no way that Japan could evacuate Tokyo, either.

      • By the same reasoning you articulated, the Communist Party would have recognized that lockdowns for COVID are hopeless, too, only ensuring greater economic and other pain. Nothing in the past — not far greater objective threats — got in the way of the Party’s push for economic advancement. If they understand anything, they understand how not to upset their economic engine.

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