Why a Great Reset Based on Green Energy Isn’t Possible

It seems like a reset of an economy should work like a reset of your computer: Turn it off and turn it back on again; most problems should be fixed. However, it doesn’t really work that way. Let’s look at a few of the misunderstandings that lead people to believe that the world economy can move to a Green Energy future.

[1] The economy isn’t really like a computer that can be switched on and off; it is more comparable to a human body that is dead, once it is switched off.

A computer is something that is made by humans. There is a beginning and an end to the process of making it. The computer works because energy in the form of electrical current flows through it. We can turn the electricity off and back on again. Somehow, almost like magic, software issues are resolved, and the system works better after the reset than before.

Even though the economy looks like something made by humans, it really is extremely different. In physics terms, it is a “dissipative structure.” It is able to “grow” only because of energy consumption, such as oil to power trucks and electricity to power machines.

The system is self-organizing in the sense that new businesses are formed based on the resources available and the apparent market for products made using these resources. Old businesses disappear when their products are no longer needed. Customers make decisions regarding what to buy based on their incomes, the amount of debt available to them, and the choice of goods available in the marketplace.

There are many other dissipative structures. Hurricanes and tornadoes are dissipative structures. So are stars. Plants and animals are dissipative structures. Ecosystems of all kinds are dissipative structures. All of these things grow for a time and eventually collapse. If their energy source is taken away, they fail quite quickly. The energy source for humans is food of various types; for plants it is generally sunlight.

Thinking that we can switch the economy off and on again comes close to assuming that we can resurrect human beings after they die. Perhaps this is possible in a religious sense. But assuming that we can do this with an economy requires a huge leap of faith.

[2] Economic growth has a definite pattern to it, rather than simply increasing without limit. 

Many people have developed models reflecting the fact that economic growth seems to come in waves or cycles. Ray Dalio shows a chart describing his view of the economic cycle in a preview to his upcoming book, The Changing World Order. Figure 1 is Dalio’s chart, with some annotations I have added in blue.

Figure 1. New World Order chart by Ray Dalio from an introduction to his theory called The Changing World Order. Annotations in blue added by Gail Tverberg.

Modelers of all kinds would like to think that there are no limits in this world. Actually, there are many limits. It is the fact that economies have to work around limits that leads to cycles such as these. Some examples of limits include inadequate arable land for a growing population, inability to fight off pathogens, and an energy supply that becomes excessively expensive to produce. Cycles can be expected to vary in steepness, both on the upside and the downside of the cycle.

The danger of ignoring these cycles is that researchers tend to create models of future economic growth and future energy consumption that are far out of sync with what really can be expected. Accurate models need to include at least some limited version of overshoot and collapse on a regular basis. Models of the future economy tend to be based on what politicians would like to believe will happen, rather than what actually can be expected to happen in the real world.

[3] Commodity prices behave differently at different stages of the economic cycle. During the second half of the economic cycle, it becomes difficult to keep commodity prices high enough for producers. 

There is a common belief that demand for energy products will always be high, because everyone knows we need energy. Thus, according to this belief, if we have the technology to extract fossil fuels, prices will eventually rise high enough that fossil fuel resources can easily be extracted. Many people have been concerned that we might “run out” of oil. They expect that oil prices will rise to compensate for the shortages. Thus, many people believe that in order to maintain adequate supply, we should be concerned about supplementing fossil fuels with nuclear power and renewable energy.

If we examine oil prices (Figure 2), it is apparent that, at least recently, this is not the way oil prices actually behave. Since the spike in oil prices in 2008, the big problem has been prices that fall too low for oil producers. At prices well below $100 per barrel, development of many new oil fields is not economic. Low oil prices are especially a problem in 2020 because travel restrictions associated with the coronavirus pandemic reduce oil demand (and prices) even below where they were previously.

Figure 2. Weekly average spot oil prices for Brent, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.

Strangely enough, coal prices (Figure 3) seem to follow a very similar pattern to oil prices, even though coal is commonly believed to be available in huge supply, and oil is commonly believed to be in short supply.

Figure 3. Selected Spot Coal Prices, from BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy. Prices are annual averages. Price for China is Qinhuangdao spot price; price for US is Central Appalachian coal spot index; price for Europe is Northwest European marker price.

Comparing Figures 2 and 3, we see that prices for both oil and coal rose to a peak in 2008, then fell back sharply. The timing of this drop in prices corresponds with the “debt bust” in late 2008 that is shown in Figure 1.

Prices then rose to another peak in 2011, after several years of Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is intended to hold the cost of borrowing down, encouraging the use of more debt. This debt can be used by citizens to buy more goods made with coal and oil (such as cars and solar panels). Therefore, QE is a way to increase demand and thus help raise energy prices. In the 2011-2014 period, oil was able to maintain its price better than coal, perhaps because of its short supply. Once the United States discontinued its QE program in 2014, oil prices dropped like a rock (Figure 2).

Prices were very low in 2015 and 2016 for both coal and oil. China stimulated its economy, and prices for both coal and oil were able to rise again in 2017 and 2018. By 2019, prices for both oil and coal were falling again. Figure 2 shows that in 2020, oil prices have fallen again, as a result of demand destruction caused by pandemic shutdowns. Coal prices have also fallen in 2020, according to Trading Economics.

[4] The low prices since mid-2008 seem to be leading to both peak crude oil and peak coal. Crude oil production started falling in 2019 and can be expected to continue falling in 2020. Coal extraction seems likely to start falling in 2020.

In the previous section, I showed that crude oil and coal both have the same problem: Prices tend to be too low for producers to make a profit extracting them. For this reason, investment in new oil wells is being reduced, and unprofitable coal mines are being closed.

Figure 4 shows that world crude oil production has not grown much since 2004. In fact, OPEC’s production has not grown much since 2004, even though OPEC countries report high oil reserves so, in theory, they could pump more oil if they chose to.

Figure 4. World crude oil production (including condensate) based on data from BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy. Russia+ refers to the group Commonwealth of Independent States.

In total, BP data shows that world crude oil production fell by 582,000 barrels per day, comparing 2019 to 2018. This represents a drop of 2.0 million barrels per day in OPEC production, offset by smaller increases in production for the US, Canada, and Russia. Crude oil production is expected to fall further in 2020, because of low demand and prices.

Because of continued low coal prices, world coal production has been on a bumpy plateau since 2011. Prices seem to be even lower in 2020 than in 2019, putting further downward pressure on coal extraction in 2020.

Figure 5. World coal production based on data from BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy.

[5] Modelers missed the fact that fossil fuel extraction would disappear because of low prices, leaving nearly all reserves and other resources in the ground. Modelers instead assumed that renewables would always be an extension of a fossil fuel-powered system.

The thing that most people do not understand is that commodity prices are set by the laws of physics, so that supply and demand are in balance. Demand is really very close to “affordability.” If there is too much wage/wealth disparity, commodity prices tend to fall too low. In a globalized world, many workers earn only a few dollars a day. Because of their low wages, these low-paid workers cannot afford to purchase very much of the world’s goods and services. The use of robots tends to produce a similar result because robots can’t actually purchase goods and services made by the economy.

Thus, modelers looking at Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI) for wind and for solar assumed that they would always be used inside of a fossil fuel powered system that could provide heavily subsidized balancing for their intermittent output. They made calculations as if intermittent electricity is equivalent to electricity that can be controlled to provide electricity when it is needed. Their calculations seemed to suggest that making wind and solar would be useful. The thing that was overlooked was that this was only possible within a system where other fuels would provide balancing at a very low cost.

[6] The same issue of low demand leading to low prices affects commodities of all kinds. As a result, many of the future resources that modelers count on, and that companies depend upon as the basis for borrowing, are unlikely to really be available.

Commodities of all kinds are being affected by low demand and low selling prices. The problem giving rise to low prices seems to be related to excessive specialization, excessive use of capital goods to replace labor, and excessive use of globalization. These issues are all related to the needs of a world economy that depends on a high level of technology. In such an economy, too much of the output of the economy goes to producing devices and to paying highly trained workers. Little is left for non-elite workers.

The low selling prices of commodities makes it impossible for employers to pay adequate wages to most of their workers. These low wages, in turn, feed through to the uprisings we have been seeing in the last couple of years. These uprisings are part of “Revolutions and Wars” mentioned in Figure 1. It is difficult to see how this problem will disappear without a major change in the “World Order,” mentioned in the same figure.

Because the problem of low commodity prices is widespread, our ability to produce electrical backup of all kinds, including the ability to make batteries, can be expected to become an increasing problem. Commodities, such as lithium, suffer from low prices, not unlike the low prices for coal and oil. These low prices lead to cutbacks in their production and local uprisings.

[7] On a stand-alone basis, intermittent renewables have very limited usefulness. Their true value is close to zero.

If electricity is only available when the sun is shining, or when the wind is blowing, industry cannot plan for its use. Its use must be limited to applications where intermittency doesn’t matter, such as pumping water for animals to drink or desalinating water. No one would attempt to smelt metals with intermittent electricity because the metals would set at the wrong time, if the intermittent electricity suddenly disappeared. No one would power an elevator with intermittent electricity, because a person could easily be trapped between floors. Homeowners would not use electricity to power refrigerators, because, as likely as not, the food would spoil when electricity was off for long periods. Traffic signals would work sometimes, but not always.

Lebanon is an example of a country whose electricity system works only intermittently. It is hard to imagine that any other country would want to imitate Lebanon. Lack of reliable electricity supply leads to protests in Lebanon.

[8] The true cost of wind and solar has been hidden from everyone, using subsidies whose total cost is hard to determine.

Each country has its own way of providing subsidies to renewables. Most countries give wind and solar the subsidy of “going first.” They are often given a fixed rate as well. Both of these are subsidies. In the US, other subsidies are buried in the tax system. Recently, there has been talk of using QE to help wind and solar providers lower their cost of borrowing.

Newspapers regularly report that the price of wind and solar is at “grid parity,” but this is not an apples to apples comparison. To be useful, electricity needs to be available when users need it. The cost of storage is far too high to allow us to store electricity for weeks and months at a time.

If we were to use intermittent electricity as a substitute for fossil fuels in general, we would need to use intermittent electricity to heat homes and offices in winter. Sunshine is abundant in the summer, but not in the winter. Without storage, solar panels cannot even be counted on to provide homeowners with heat for cooking dinner after the sun sets in the evening. An incredibly huge amount of storage would be needed to store heat from summer to winter.

China reports that it has $42 billion in unpaid clean energy subsidies, and this amount is getting larger each year. Countries are now becoming poorer and the taxes they are able to collect are lower. Their ability to subsidize a high cost, unreliable electricity system is disappearing.

[9] Wind, solar, and hydroelectric today only comprise a little under 10% of the world’s energy supply. 

We are deluding ourselves if we think we can get along on such a tiny total energy supply.

Figure 6. Hydroelectric, wind, and solar electricity as a percentage of world energy supply, based on BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Few people understand what a small share of the world’s energy supply wind and solar provide today. The amounts shown in Figure 6 assume that the denominator is total energy (including oil, for example), not just electricity. In 2019, hydroelectric accounted for 6.4% of world energy supply. Wind accounted for 2.2%, and solar accounted for 1.1%. The three together amounted to 9.7% of the world’s energy supply.

None of these three energy types is suited to producing food. Oil is currently used for tilling fields, making herbicides and pesticides, and transporting refrigerated crops to market.

[10] Few people understand how important energy supply is for giving humans control over other species and pathogens.

Control over other species and pathogens has been a multistage effort. In recent years, this effort has involved antibiotics, antivirals and vaccines. Pasteurization became an important technique in the 1800s.

Humans’ control over other species started over 100,000 years ago, when humans learned to burn biomass for many uses, including cooking foods, scaring away predators, and burning down entire forests to improve their food supply. In my 2018 post, Supplemental energy puts humans in charge, I wrote about one proof of the importance of humans’ control of fire. In the lower layers of a cave in South Africa, big cats were in charge: There were no carbon deposits from fire and gnawed human bones were scattered around the cave. In the upper layers of the same cave, humans were clearly in charge. There were carbon deposits from fires, and bones of big cats that had been gnawed by humans were scattered around the cave.

We are dealing with COVID-19 now. Today’s hospitals are only possible thanks to a modern mix of energy supply. Drugs are very often made using oil. Personal protective equipment is made in factories around the world and shipped to where it is used, generally using oil for transport.

Conclusion

We do indeed appear to be headed for a Great Reset. There is little chance that Green Energy can play more than a small role, however. Leaders are often confused because of the erroneous modeling that has been done. Given that the world’s oil and coal supply seem to be declining in the near term, the chance that fossil fuel production will ever rise as high as assumptions made in the IPCC reports seems very slim.

It is true that some Green Energy devices may continue to operate for a time. But, as the world economy continues to head downhill, it will be increasingly difficult to make new renewable devices and to repair existing systems. Wholesale electricity prices can be expected to stay very low, leading to the need for continued subsidies for wind and solar.

Figure 1 indicates that we can expect more revolutions and wars at this stage in the cycle. At least part of this unrest will be related to low commodity prices and low wages. Globalization will tend to disappear. Keeping transmission lines repaired will become an increasing problem, as will many other tasks associated with keeping energy supplies available.

This entry was posted in Energy policy and tagged , , , , , by Gail Tverberg. Bookmark the permalink.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.

2,326 thoughts on “Why a Great Reset Based on Green Energy Isn’t Possible

    • “The world economy is in a dangerous place. Attempts to restart activity, premature or not, have led to a rise in coronavirus cases, particularly in Europe where the pandemic previously looked under control. Relief from a potential vaccine, if any works, seems months away.

      “Meanwhile, central banks have little capacity to respond to a further downturn. Governments are already fretting about the debt they incurred by keeping economies in deep freeze through the outbreak’s first stage.”

      https://www.ft.com/content/e15a3156-e39f-4008-887f-354daab5a5f8

        • According to the article, there has been only one depression in US history. On the basis of this one depression in the 1930s, the article tells the differences between a recession and depression.

          There have been a whole lot of collapses in the history of the world. The Depression of the 1930s didn’t get to this level. Collapses are not part of the comparison.

    • There were winners and losers in the US attempt to provide aid. This chart shows that the percentage of home ownership rose significantly, as those with higher paying jobs who could work at home were able to afford homes, thanks to the availability of low interest home loans.

  1. Dr. in Texas frustrated with people dying from Covid-19 & failing to understand how it’s transmitted via airborne droplets.

    • Or perhaps the “stupid people” have figured out that life must go on, with or without COVID-19. It is hard to see a clear path forward with today’s ever-changing pandemic advice.

      • I think his point is wear a mask and social distance. It can’t be that hard to wear a mask, I know from wearing them in public, its easy. They succeeded doing it in Europe. Also, for those impatient w/the pandemic, a lot of vaccine candidates are in phase III testing. It might not be much longer until a vaccine is available and those that were risk averse for themselves and others will be rewarded by having not risked death, the ICU, a ventilator, or months long recovery with symptoms that span a wide range depending on the individual response to the virus.

        • yes, it does seem that people should be “risk averse for themselves and others”.

          that’s what I was depending on when I started saying that the pandemic was winding down.

          but I was wrong.

          and I should have known better.

          why?

          because I have lived my whole life among Americans, many of whom are stubbborn and lazy and careless and reckkkless and foooolish and igggnorant and downright stooooopid.

          a lot of the deaths are due to the above factors.

          in addition, too many Americans are very overweight and otherwise unhealthy.

          so one of the penalties for the above factors is a higher risk of a covid-19 related death.

          the spreaders gonna spread, through all of the more densely populated areas, then those of us in sparser areas will be safer.

          after 250,000 or so deaths, which seems inevitable based on the above factors, then the pandemic will be winding down in the USA.

          I hope.

      • Kunstler has Dave Collum, chemistry prof at Cornell and his comments are similar to your observation regarding ever changing advice. He did mention speaking with biochemist associates and indicated they had serious concerns regarding the virus.

        Locally, some supply chains are starting to weaken, lumber is in short supply secondary to mill closures, some electrical parts are becoming difficult to source secondary to COVID closures of Mexican plants.

        Personally, being 73 I look at each project and wonder which to start, which are necessary and how I complete each one should I become ill. Also being hearing impaired a bit on high frequencies I find one of my most common statements is “Please repeat.”

        Dennis L.

        • I listened to the the majority of this talk; I found it interesting. Collum says he is a fan of Net Domestic Product. This is Gross Domestic Product less Depreciation. I hadn’t though about this before. Of course, what happens with social distancing is an unimaginable amount of loss of asset value, as buildings are no longer useful for the purpose for which they were built.

          • But new reconstruction–foregoing AC (that can transmit virus)–retrofitted for individual plumbing can transform all those stranded buildings into homes.

            • I am doubtful about “all” those stranded buildings. There are a lot of things wrong with them:
              (1) Elevators that need to service quite a few people at once.
              (2) Sealed windows, especially on newer buildings.
              (3) Lack of adequate ventilation.
              (4) Shared transportation to the buildings that have a problem of transmitting the virus.

              Also, adding individual plumbing is a bigger deal than you think. It may mean that more fresh water and sewage capacity needs to come into the area.

            • Kunstler has mentioned the issue of flat rooves, which don’t naturally shed water and are not traditionally maintainable.

            • I’ve been a flat roofer for the past 5+ years. The common saying I hear is, “I’ve never met a flat roof that didn’t leak!”. But to be honest, I was just on a 22k sq.ft. job this past week in 30+ degree Ontario weather, and after a pretty heavy rain the roof dried out in a few hours (despite some pretty heavy pending).

              I’ll have to listen to Kunstler’s podcast, but confused as to what was meant by “not traditionally maintainable”? They do have drains, assuming a drainpipe is/was installed…

              Cheers,
              -GBV

            • GBV, it’s nothing on this podcast. It’s something I heard him say years ago, when he was mainly griping about modern architecture. He also has an issue with “cladding”. 😉

          • Gail, imo the huge blind spot everyone has re. GDP is that it “values” destructive things the same as, or even greater than, constructive things.

            Drive around in circles and GDP goes up. More sick people => more money spent => higher GDP. Yay! More kids with “special needs” => more spending on counsellors => higher GDP. Yay! Mr. “Sixty-Six Garage”‘s $4million-and-running tab => higher GDP. If enough people could be like Mr. “Sixty-Six Garage”, the world would be richer than it has ever been!

            People homeschooling, taking care of their own elders, and cooking their own meals make GDP go down.

            I haven’t looked into the “Gross National Happiness” notions since I am pretty sure there is no chance of the US adopting a model anything at all like that.

            • GDP also does not look at the value of existing assets, such as price of shares of stock and of homes and other property.

              The value of existing assets can be pumped up by lowering interest rates, making it easier for buyers to afford these assets. But social distancing can destroy the value of many of these assets, close to overnight. There is a real impact on the economy of these actions. If prices of shares of stock and property rise, owners feel richer. They borrow against the higher value of the property.

              When the debt bubble collapses, there is a big problem. The owners cannot repay their debts. Banks tend to fail. The loss of equity makes it difficult to buy new property. Investment in new commodity extraction tends to fall. Experience of the recent past has been pumped up by inflating asset values. Going forward, we will likely be facing a big drop in asset values that is very hard to deal with.

          • Gail, by that criterion, the “value” of Manhattan must surely be negative. Covered in skyscrapers that are becoming uninhabitable: elevators too small, hallways too narrow, no good open spaces, terrible ventilation, …

            A modest proposal. We have a lot of useless aircraft and a lot of useless skyscrapers. Fly the one into the other, clear away the debris, and create farms, market gardens, playgrounds, small parks, and villages of low technology craftsmen. Then maybe rename it “New Amsterdam”.

            • the value of a city is entirely determined by the input of the people who possess the means to live in it.

              hence my local Roman city, once the 4th largest in UK, is now worth nothing except as a tourist attraction.

              In Roman times, its ‘city-value’ would have been colossal

  2. Ok, this is off topic, but was always interested in the past. History/Archaeology and came across this metal sector hobbyist lucky find…
    He Found a Buried Chain, and Luckily He Kept Digging
    Life | By Gur Tirosh

    https://www.livingmgz.com/life/he-found-a-buried-chain-and-luckily-he-kept-digging/19.html?fps=ya&br_t=ch&_pg=p14

    Celtic Settlement
    And it looks as though this Celtic settlement had stayed off of everyone’s radar for quite a long time. Aside from the ditch rings’ burial sites, Mike dug up 34 other items, including a brooch, tool handles, and bronze bits. “I still can’t believe it,” he said. “Obviously, I’ve read other people’s finds. I’ve watched them on the telly, and I’ve always thought, I wouldn’t mind finding that, it’s still surreal, and life-changing.”

    The Superstitious Nature
    While the markings typically symbolize protection against demons and evil spirits, there was still another theory. Some historians believe that the village of Pembrokeshire faced an attack of famine, diseases, and poverty. These were things that could easily have been blamed on evil forces. A retired professor of the New Testament Language and Literature named John Charlesworth explained that the superstition surrounding the symbols probably overwhelmed the townspeople.
    The village location, along with the underground cavern, made them fear the unknown. Even though they believed the cavern held demons, there was either a queen or chieftain that had been buried with their chariot at Mike’s discovery site. “I knew the importance of them straight away… I’d read all about chariot burials and just wished it could have been me, so finding this has been a privilege
    An Update on the Developing Story
    The court at Milford Haven heard that the finds from the ritual burial site are now legally protected. Mike Smith says the finds could be worth a “life-changing” six- or seven-figure sum. Nine artifacts are now Crown property, and an independent evaluation committee will decide on Smith’s payout. That sum will then be shared fifty-fifty between him and the landowner.

    Wonderful story with lots of pictures and info…found it rather telling the people’s belief the supernatural invisible world. Wonder what the future generations will make out of our rather silly belief systems…..😜👍

    • There is also the silly belief system that says “the finds could be worth a “life-changing” six- or seven-figure sum.” It depends on what there is to buy and how well the financial system holds up. The pay may be as useless as the chariot is today.

  3. What surprises me most is that people are still confused by the actions of the US and don’t see that it is basically a Military Industrial Hegemon;
    Hollywood and CNN etc are the PR arm
    Washington DC is the executive/admin arm
    The Fed and the petro-dollar are its foremost negotiating weapon via sanctions etc
    Big Pharma is the soma dept
    Education is for misinformation
    The prison system is its carpet to sweep things under; this includes special rendition sites
    The elections are its circus
    GMO is what remains of its bread for its circus
    Terrorism has been its MO (I believe 67 countries have suffered militarily at the hands of the US since WWII?)
    Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel/country

    The fact that big pharma will be exempt from any vaccine liability seems to parallel the US not accepting any International Criminal Court rulings.

    I live in a vassal state and have probably benefitted undeservedly from this arrangement. But like most sensible people in the US, have little influence on the direction events will take.

    • Scott Nearing couldn’t have stated it any better if he were alive today!👍😜

      Yep, we are pawns in a corporate vessel military state….best be a cog in it’s wheel or be crushed

    • Are you running for student government or something? If so, I think you’re a shoe-in…

      You can interpret everything about the United States in the worst possible way, or you can recognise that most of what you describe could be applied to any other country. When is military action not terrorism? What democracy doesn’t engage in political circus? When is education delivered objectively and without partiality?

      The United States is always judged against an abstract utopian ideal, and I’m not sure how sensible that is.

      What we do know is that, per capita, it was once one of the most energy and resource-rich nations in history, and therefore one of the best places to live. This is no longer the case, so it’s unlikely things will get better.

      The systems these nations devise are deterministic, along with the eventual failure of their systems.

      • Actually, Frankie, I was in Student Government and voted Senator of the Semester back in the day. The Government of the United States just has prettier window dressing than other oppressive imperial Nations.
        You can see what you wish, it does not change it so.

    • All of this was hardly invented by the United States. In fact, there have been no exceptions to this arrangement anywhere on earth since people gave up hunter-gathering and settled in and around cities.

      Peoples who don’t prepare for war are killed or enslaved and what they owned becomes the property of someone else. Running a war-state entails all of the other stuff you mention.

      Of course, you are free to stump for some other kind of arrangement. Good luck with that.

    • I live in a vassal state and have probably benefitted undeservedly from this arrangement.

      Suggestion: You can give up everything you have, all of your ill-gotten gains, any time you like and send it all to the deserving needy.

      Alternatively, you can stop grandstanding about how wonderfully virtuous you are and admit that you are in fact quite happy to have been the recipient of these supposedly so repugnant historical arrangements.

      The choice is yours.

      • Kim, I agree with you . I learnt about peak oil from Matt Simmons,Campbell and Dreyfuss in 2004 . I knew we were going to hit the wall ,only my timing was 2010 and not 2008 . The FED then did the QE 1 and continued to QE infinity .It started ZIRP and NIRP and other alphabet soups . I do not approve of such actions because they caused harm to more people and enriched the few . I am as you pointed out quite happy about there actions because it has given me an extra 12 years of the good life and no apologies because I did not ask for this . I was very prepared to quit the living arrangement in 2008 . No grandstanding but make a continuous effort to educate the crowd in understanding our current predicament . That is the best all of us on this forum can do ,I guess .

    • Of course, the US has benefitted greatly from this arrangement. It imports of goods and services have exceeded its exports of goods and services since 1982. Recently, both imports and exports have fallen, but the US has remained a net importer of goods and services.

      The US thus has a huge way to fall, if it loses the benefit of this arrangement.

  4. “Economic crisis fuels exodus of Tunisian migrants – and their pets.

    “Middle-class, educated Tunisians are part of the exodus to Italy – including one group that brought their pet poodle… a new wave of migrants from Tunisia that has the Italian government deeply worried.

    “The exodus is being fuelled by a social, political and economic crisis in the country that was the birthplace of the Arab Spring…”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/01/economic-crisis-fuels-exodus-tunisian-migrants-pets/

        • I’m all in on Tuna Cans because already have my stash.
          One thing folks are missing is location, location, location!!!😳
          Seems there is a half hearted faith in a weakened BAU and one can wiggle through with the right mix of investments.
          Gail has stressed having a extended “family” of sorts.
          That’s imperative and one needs to realize the supply chain may be rather shortened.
          I’m not a Farmer at all, and doubt I’ll be able to feed myself.
          Have a place in Central Florida that is agricultural productive and able to provide amenities of modern life and culture.
          Hedging my bets, but one only do so much and put ones money down and let the wheel roll.
          Yeah, gold silver are good, mining stocks are OK, shorting Airlines and Cruise Lines, seems likely they will go bust…but as Gail foresees, there is no functioning financial system and we have a makeshift reset!?
          George Gammon just posted a video on the World Elites and their plan for such a global revision…
          Doubt there will enough of energy/resources to hold it all together 🤣.
          Anyhoot, 2020 has proven so far to be a tipping point in many ways.
          We shall see, said the blind man

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