Fossil Fuel Production Is Reaching Limits in a Strange Way

Strangely enough, the limit we seem to be reaching with respect to fossil fuel extraction comes from low prices. At low prices, the extraction of oil, coal, and natural gas becomes unprofitable. Producers go bankrupt, or they voluntarily cut back production in an attempt to force prices higher. As the result of these forces, production tends to fall. This limit comes long before the limit that many people imagine: the amount of fossil fuels in the ground that seems to be available with current extraction techniques.

The last time there was a similar problem was back in 1913, when coal was the predominant fossil fuel used and the United Kingdom was the largest coal producer in the world. The cost of production was rising due to depletion, but coal prices would not rise sufficiently to cover the higher cost of production. As a result, the United Kingdom’s coal production reached its highest level in 1913, the year before World War I started, and began to fall in 1914.

Between 1913 and 1945, the world economy was very troubled. There were two world wars, the Spanish Flu pandemic and the Great Depression. My concern is that we are again headed into another very troubled period that could last for many years.

The way the energy problems of the period between 1913 and 1945 were resolved was through the rapid ramp-up of oil production. Oil was, as that time, inexpensive to produce and could be sold for a very large multiple of the cost of production. If population is to remain at the current level or possibly grow, we need a similar “energy savior.” Unfortunately, none of the alternatives we are looking at now yield a high enough return relative to the required investment.

I recently gave a talk to an engineering group interested in energy research talking about these issues. In this post, I will discuss the slides of this presentation. A PDF of the presentation can be found at this link.

The Low Oil Price Problem

Oil prices seem to bounce around wildly. One major issue is that there is a two-way tug of war between the prices that citizens can afford and the prices that oil companies require. We can look back now and say that the mid-2008 price of over $150 per barrel was too high for consumers. But strangely enough, oil producers began complaining about oil prices being too low to cover their rising cost levels, starting in 2012. Prices, at a 2019 cost level, were at about $120 per barrel at that time. I wrote about this issue in the post, Beginning of the End? Oil Companies Cut Back on Spending. Oil prices now are in the $40 range, so are way, way below both $120 per barrel and $150 per barrel.

Interest rates and the availability of debt also play a role in oil prices. If interest rates are low and debt is readily available, it is easy to buy a new home or new car, and oil prices tend to rise because of the higher demand. When prices are too low for producers, central banks have been able to lower interest rates through a program called “quantitative easing.” This program seems to have helped oil prices to rise again, over a three-year period, after they crashed in 2008.

OPEC producers are known for their low cost of production, but even they report needing high oil prices. The cost of extracting the oil is reported to be very low (perhaps $10 per barrel), but the price charged needs to be high enough to allow governments to collect very high taxes on the oil extracted. If prices are high enough, these countries can continue the food subsidies that their populations depend upon. They can also sponsor development programs to provide jobs for the ever-growing populations of these countries. OPEC producers also need to develop new oil fields because the old ones deplete.

Oil production outside of the United States and Canada entered a bumpy plateau in 2005. The US and Canada added oil production from shale and bitumen in recent years, helping to keep world oil production (including natural gas liquids) rising.

One reason why producers need higher prices is because their cost of extraction tends to rise over time. This happens because the oil that is cheapest to extract and process tends to be extracted first, leaving the oil with higher cost of extraction until later. 

Some OPEC countries, such as Saudi Arabia, can hide the low price problem for a while by borrowing money. But even this approach does not work well for long. The longer low oil prices last, the greater the danger is of governments being overthrown by unhappy citizens. Oil production can then be expected to become erratic because of internal conflicts.

In the US and Canada, oil companies have been funded by bank loans, bond sales and the sale of shares of stock. These sources of funding are drying up, as many oil companies report poor earnings, year after year, and some are seeking bankruptcy protection. 

Chart 6 shows that the number of drilling rigs in operation has dropped dramatically in both the United States and Canada, as oil companies cut back on drilling. There is a lag between the time the number of drilling rigs is cut back and the time production starts to fall of perhaps a year, in the case of shale. These low drilling rig counts suggest that US and Canadian oil production from shale will fall in 2021.

Of course, unused drilling rigs cannot be mothballed indefinitely. At some point, they are sold as scrap and the workers who operated them find other employment. It then becomes difficult to restart oil extraction.

How the Economy Works, and What Goes Wrong as Limits Are Reached

Slide 7 shows one way of visualizing how the world economy, as a self-organizing system, operates. It is somewhat like a child’s building toy. New layers are added as new consumers, new businesses and new laws are added. Old layers tend to disappear, as old consumers die, old products are replaced by new products, and new laws replace old laws. Thus, the structure is to some extent hollow.

Self-organizing objects that grow require energy under the laws of physics. Our human bodies are self-organizing systems that grow. We use food as our source of energy. The economy also requires energy products of many kinds, such as gasoline, jet fuel, coal and electricity to allow it to operate.

It is easy to see that energy consumption allows the economy to produce finished goods and services, such as homes, automobiles, and medical services. It is less obvious, but just as important, that energy consumption provides jobs that pay well. Without energy supplies in addition to food, typical jobs would be digging in the dirt with a stick or gathering food with our hands. These jobs don’t pay well.

Finally, Slide 7 shows an important equivalence between consumers and employees. If consumers are going to be able to afford to buy the output of the economy, they need to have adequate wages.

A typical situation that arises is that population rises more quickly than energy resources, such as land to grow food. For a while, it is possible to work around this shortfall with what is called added complexity: hierarchical organization, specialization, technology, and globalization. Unfortunately, as more complexity is added, the economic system increasingly produces winners and losers. The losers end up with very low wage jobs, or with no jobs at all. The winners get huge wages and often asset ownership, as well. The winners end up with far more revenue than they need to purchase basic goods and services. The losers often do not have enough revenue to feed their families and to buy basic necessities, such as a home and some form of basic transportation.

The strange way the economy works has to do with the physics of the situation. Physicist Francois Roddier explains this as being similar to what happens to water at different temperatures. When the world economy has somewhat inadequate energy supplies, the goods and services produced by the economy tend to bubble to the top members of the world economy, similar to the way steam rises. The bottom members of the economy tend to get “frozen out.” This way, the economy can downsize without losing all members of the economy, simultaneously. This is the way ecosystems of all kinds adapt to changing conditions: The plants and animals that are best adapted to the conditions of the time tend to be the survivors.

These issues are related to the fact that the economy is, in physics terms, a dissipative structure. The economy, like hurricanes and like humans, requires adequate energy if it is not to collapse. Dissipative structures attempt to work around temporary shortfalls in energy supplies. A human being will lose weight if his caloric intake is restricted for a while. A hurricane will lose speed, if the energy it gets from the warm water of the ocean is restricted. A world economy with inadequate energy is likely to shrink back in many ways: unprofitable businesses may fail, layers of government may disappear and population may fall, for example.

In the discussion of Slide 7, I mentioned the fact that if we try to “stretch” energy supply with added complexity, many workers would end up with very low wages. Some of these low wage workers would be in the US and Europe, but many of them would be in China, India and Africa. Even though these workers are producing goods for the world economy, they often cannot afford to buy those same goods themselves. Henry Ford is remembered to have said something to the effect that he needed to pay his workers enough so that they, themselves, could buy the cars they were making. To a significant extent, this is no longer happening when a person takes into account international workers.

The high interest rates that low-wage workers pay mean that loans don’t really help low-wage workers as much as they help high-wage workers. The high interest on credit card debt and personal loans tend to transfer part of the income of low-wage workers to the financial sector, leaving poor people worse off than they would have been without the loans. 

COVID shutdowns are extremely damaging to the world economy. They are like taking support sticks out of the dome on Slide 7. They produce many more unemployed people around the world. People in low wage countries that produce clothing for a living have been particularly hard hit, for example. Migrant workers and miners of various kinds have also been hard hit.

We Seem to Be Reaching a Major Turning Point

Oil production and consumption have both fallen in 2020; oil prices are far too low for producers; wage disparity is a major problem; countries seem to be increasingly having problems getting along. Many analysts are forecasting a prolonged recession.

The last time that we had a similar situation was in 1913, when the largest coal producer in the world was the United Kingdom. The UK’s cost of coal production kept rising because of depletion (deeper mines, thinner seams), but prices would not rise to compensate for the higher cost of production. Miners were paid very inadequate wages; poor workers regularly held strikes for higher wages. World War I started in 1914, the same year coal production of the UK started to fall. The UK’s coal production has fallen nearly every year since then.

The last time that wage disparity started to spike as badly as it has in recent years occurred back in the late 1920s, or perhaps as early as 1913 to 1915.  The chart shown above is for the US; problems were greater in Europe at that time.

With continued low oil prices, production is likely to start falling and may continue to fall for years. It is hard to bring scrapped drilling rigs back into service, for example. The experience in the UK with coal shows that energy prices don’t necessarily rise to compensate for higher costs due to depletion. There need to be buyers for higher-priced goods made with higher-priced coal. If there is too much wage disparity, the many poor people in the system will tend to keep demand, and prices, too low. They may eat poorly, making it easier for pandemics to spread, as with the Spanish Flu in 1918-1919. These people will be unhappy, leading to the rise of leaders promising to change the system to make things better.

My concern is that we may be heading into a long period of unrest, as occurred in the 1913 to 1945 era. Instead of getting high energy prices, we will get disruption of the world economy.  The self-organizing economy is attempting to fix itself, either by getting more energy supply or by eliminating parts of the economy that aren’t contributing enough to the overall system. Conflict between countries, pandemics, bankruptcies and economic contraction are likely to be part of the mix.

Coal Seems to Be Reaching Extraction Limits as Well 

Coal has essentially the same problem as oil: Prices tend to be too low for producers to extract coal profitably. Many coal producers have gone bankrupt. Prices were higher back in 2008, when demand was high for everything, and again in 2011, when quantitative easing had been helpful. 

There have been stories in the press in the past week about China limiting coal imports from Australia, so as to make more jobs for coal miners in China. The big conflict among countries relates to “not enough jobs that pay well” and “not enough profitable companies.” These indirectly are energy issues. If there was more “affordability” of goods made with high-priced coal, there would be no problem.

Coal production worldwide has been on a bumpy plateau since 2012. In fact, China, the largest producer of coal, found its production stagnating, starting about 2012. The problem was a familiar one: The cost of extraction rose because many mines that had been used for quite a number of years were depleted. The selling price would not rise to match the higher cost of extraction because of affordability issues.

The underlying problem is that the economy is a dissipative structure. Commodity prices are set by the laws of physics. Prices don’t rise high enough for producers, if there are not enough customers willing and able to buy the goods made with high-priced coal.

We Have a Major Problem if Both Coal and Oil Production Are in Danger of Falling Because of Low Prices

Oil and coal are the two largest sources of energy in the world. We can’t get along without them. While natural gas production is fairly high, there is not nearly enough natural gas to replace both oil and coal.

Looking down the list, we see that nuclear production hit a maximum back in 2006 and has fallen since then.

Hydroelectric continues to grow, but from a small base. Most of the good sites have already been taken. In many cases, there are conflicts between countries regarding who should get the benefit of water from a given river.

The only grouping that is growing rapidly is Renewables. (This is really Renewables Other than Hydroelectric.) It includes wind and solar plus a few other energy types, including geothermal. This grouping, too, is very small compared to oil and coal.

Natural Gas Has a Low Price Problem as Well

Natural gas, at first glance, looks like it might be a partial solution to the world’s energy problems: It is lower in carbon than coal and oil, and it is fairly abundant. The problem with natural gas is that it is terribly expensive to ship. At one time, people used to talk about there being a lot of “stranded” natural gas. This natural gas seemed to be available, but when shipping costs were included, the price of goods made with it (such as electricity or winter heat for homes) was often unaffordable.

After the run-up in oil prices in the early 2000s, many people became optimistic that, with energy scarcity, natural gas prices would rise sufficiently to make extraction and shipping long distances profitable. Unfortunately, it is becoming increasingly clear that, while prices can temporarily spike due to scarcity and perhaps a debt bubble, keeping the prices up for the long run is extremely difficult. Customers need to be able to afford the goods and services made with these energy products, or the laws of physics bring market prices back down to an affordable level.

The prices in the chart reflect three different natural gas products. The lowest priced one is US Henry Hub, which is priced near the place of extraction, so long distance shipping is not an issue. The other two, German Import and Japan Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), include different quantities of long distance shipping. Prices in 2020 are even lower than in 2019. For example, some LNG imported by Japan has ben purchased for $4 per million Btu in 2020.

The Economy Needs a Bail-Out Similar to the Growth of Oil After WWII

The oil that was produced shortly after World War II had very important characteristics:

  1. It was very inexpensive to produce, and
  2. It could be sold to customers at a far higher price than its cost of production.

It was as if, today, we had a very useful energy product that could be produced and delivered for $4, but it was so valuable to consumers that they were willing to pay $120 for it. In other words, the consumer was willing to pay 30 times as much as the cost that went into extracting and refining the oil.

With an energy product this valuable, a company producing it would need virtually no debt. It could drill a well or two, and with the profits from the first wells, finance the investment of many more wells. The company could pay very high taxes, allowing governments to build roads, schools, electricity transmission lines and much other infrastructure, without having to raise taxes on citizens.

Besides using the profits for reinvestment and for taxes, oil companies could pay high dividends. This made oil company stocks favorites of pension plans. Thus, in a way, oil company profits could help subsidize pension plans, as well.

Now, because of depletion, we have reached a situation where oil companies, and in fact most companies, are unprofitable. Companies and governments keep adding debt at ever lower interest rates. In fact, the tradition of ever-increasing debt at ever-lower interest rates goes back to 1981. Thus, we have been using debt manipulation to hide energy problems for almost 40 years now.

We need a way to counteract this trend toward ever-lower returns. Some people talk about “Energy Return on Energy Investment” or EROEI. I gave an example in dollars, but a major thing those dollars are buying is energy, so the result is very similar.

I think researchers have set the “bar” far too low, in looking at what is an adequate EROEI. Today’s wind and solar don’t really have an adequate EROEI, when the full cost of delivery is included. If they did, they would not need the subsidy of “going first” on the electric grid. They would also be able to pay high taxes instead of requiring subsidies, year after year. We need much better solutions than the ones we have today.

Some researchers talk about “Net Energy per Capita,” calculated as ((Energy Delivered to the End User) minus (Energy Used in Making and Transporting Energy to the End User)) divided by (Population). It seems to me that Net Energy per Capita needs to stay at least constant, and perhaps rise. If net energy per capita could actually rise, it would allow the economy to increasingly fight depletion and pollution.

Conclusion: We Need a New Very Inexpensive Energy Source Now

We need a new, very inexpensive energy source that buyers will willingly pay a disproportionately high price for right now, not 20 or 50 years from now.

The alternative may be an economy that does poorly for a long time or collapses completely.

The one ray of hope, from a researcher’s perspective, is the fact that people are always looking for solutions. They may be able to provide funds for research at this time, even if funds for full implementation are unlikely.

This entry was posted in Financial Implications by Gail Tverberg. Bookmark the permalink.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.

2,885 thoughts on “Fossil Fuel Production Is Reaching Limits in a Strange Way

    • The article says that for 18 days in February, the island managed to generate its own power. The article was published in March 2018, so I presume this was February 2018. This is electricity alone, not all energy. I know that Euan Mearns and his assistant (who has since died) used to write about how expensive this electricity is. It needs to use backup diesel for power quite a bit of the time.

      This island is mostly an example of how poorly this idea works, as far as I know.

      • Right, Gail, i wonder whether perhaps Means and Roger Andrews wrote about Hawai too?

        • Hawaii is nowhere near 100% renewable. Even the Big island is nowhere 100% renewable. The price of electricity is very high in Hawaii too. I would have to look to see what they wrote about Hawaii. I know that the Big Island of Hawaii cut off solar additions to the grid (temporarily?) because the grid couldn’t handle more.

  1. Peter Hitchens from his blog post of October 24:

    Only anger will end this misery

    Johnson, the man who ruined Britain, continues to stamp across the landscape like a mad giant, squashing small businesses, obliterating jobs and then flinging funny money at the victims as if that could bring back what they have lost for ever.

    By doing so he achieves nothing. The crisis which he claims to be dealing with exists only in twisted statistics and shameless propaganda.

    No suspicion that he might be mistaken appears to have crossed his mind. Those of us who have tried using facts and reason to change his mind are more or less in despair. The funny money is visibly running out.

    Increasingly, I fear that anger is the only force that will bring this misery to an end. I hope not, for that will bring new miseries. Can nobody reach him, while there is still time?

    Me again:
    Never put down to malice what can be explained perfectly well by stupidity, to paraphrase an old adage. But what governments such as Boris’s are doing is far too stupid to be accounted for by stupidity. These people are working for a “common purpose” and “stupidity” is merely an excuse for not wanting to think about what that purpose might be.

    • For those that don’t live in the UK, Peter Hitchens is a columnist for the Mail on Sunday. He is the only person in the UK MSM, that I am aware of, that has been visibly anti-lockdown from the get-go, suggesting that the UK follow the Swedish way of tackling CV19. He is more or less a one-man force who has been willing to stick his head above the parapet.

      But much of the UK general population ignore anything he writes, or assume he is writing rubbish/propaganda, because he writes for what is considered to be a right-wing newspaper and he usually has what are considered right-wing views, which of course is why he is a columnist for the Mail. A pity, for on this topic he has been spot on.

      • I think that to some extent this dynamic exists everywhere. People assume that if the medical community recommends lockdowns, this is the way to go. Doctors don’t understand the economy, or how little lockdowns do.

        • Gail, I don’t think it really has been “the medical community” to recommend the lockdowns. I don’t think they were polled on it and, if polled, I think they would demur, being generally smart enough not to want to take responsibility for the economic outcomes. Collectively, they would probably come up with a Swedish response (BAU but social-distance, handwash) or something similar.

          Since my dad was an MD, people are amazed when I say I got “some red-spot disease” when I was a kid, but didn’t know whether it was measles, chicken pox, rubella..? Did it matter? Dad looked at it, said “ok, stay at home and drink ginger ale”. He did not even like to give us aspirin. His main remedy was “put a cold cloth on it.” People think that if they can get data on something that they can change the outcome, and that’s not always the case.

          • Our civilisation is declining in a flood of data and modelling – but for all that we remain almost as helpless as the Romans, etc. Knowledge is not always power.

    • “Coronavirus has had a “devastating” impact on the UK’s pubs and will exacerbate the decline in the number of independent breweries – for the first time in nearly two decades – an influential consumer guide has warned.

      “Thousands of pubs and breweries that survived the first lockdown are now fighting to stay afloat amid a slump in business following ongoing restrictions and curfews that could “make or break” the industry…”

      https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/29/covid-has-devastated-uk-pub-industry-says-camra

      • “Coach companies have again warned they face collapse if they do not receive urgent help from the government following a slump in business amid the coronavirus outbreak.

        “Many firms are paying thousands of pounds in finance deals for vehicles that are not bringing money in. One worried boss said his fleet could be repossessed in the coming weeks.”

        https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-54724747

        • The whole economy is revealed as one big leveraged phantom performance mirage, debt over debt securing another level of debt.. This on the other end obviously means there is significant overcapacity, so when the factories (e.g. coach buses here) cut production ~20-40% they are no longer for this world as well as their bank, and insurer of that said bank, etc..

          Again, that means even in the depression the industrial products won’t get any cheaper, perhaps with the exception for very limited time window (and insiders who track volume spikes), then the production is cut off, bankruptcies, few of the surviving competitors not rushing to increase production anyway.. Quality also suffers because of wobbly suppliers and freaked out employees..

          • Wait until Amazon pops up in your back yard and the online grocery stores boots up properly.

            Those coaches will be repurposed to deliver cheap crap and groceries.

            Autos, though, in Europe especially, now that’s a grim prospect.

            I’m waiting for massive layoffs in Stuttgart. Bicycles and ebikes does not require that massive of a work force.

            Cash for clunkers coming to your EU country.

            Mutti is all smiles.

          • Repo of buses or any such gear-vehicles has been dealt with scrapping (despite useful lifespan in it) or swiftly moved away to another continent. It’s intentional game of supporting price levels (on domestic/target market) which worked in previous recessions and depressions..

            • worldof… yep, they used to do that in Italy/Europe on a regular basis by forcing people to scrap cars that didn’t meet whatever new emissions standard rather than allowing them to just age out. There was clearly more pollution in the new car than in the tailpipe emissions saved. Obama did some kind of “cash for clunkers” scheme,. too, which was supposed to create current employment/demand by borrowing it from the future.

            • Pop up stores.

              Local farmers stuffing the coaches full of refrigerators and hauling their groceries to where people live.

              Do your purchases online and later on, deliveries.

  2. “IEA now sees global energy industry investment on the upstream (exploration and production) side falling by 35% this year, a slightly steeper drop than their prior analysis in May.

    “”This somewhat weaker outlook stems from cuts of around 45% by shale companies in the United States, which have experienced a surge of bankruptcies, layoffs and shut-ins, as well as a 50% jump in financing costs,” IEA notes.”

    https://www.axios.com/global-investment-slump-energy-3b6de33b-3165-4a38-bb7d-c36ba74befaa.html

  3. “The Group of 20 major economies should move quickly and decisively to reduce the debts of heavily indebted countries or risk a “lost decade” in terms of global development, World Bank chief economist Carmen Reinhart said on Wednesday.

    “”Proposals need to be bold in terms of delivering debt reduction for the debtors, because if not … the risks of a lost decade are very big.””

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-g20-debt-idUKKBN27D2KC

  4. “International tourist arrivals fell by 70% worldwide in the first eight months of 2020 compared to the previous year, due to the covid-19 pandemic, the World Tourism Organization (WTO) announced on Tuesday (27).

    “The northern summer months, usually the high tourist season in the northern hemisphere, were catastrophic: the arrival of tourists plummeted 81% in July at an annual rate and 79% in August, according to this Madrid-based UN agency.”

    https://alkhaleejtoday.co/international/5218230/World-tourism-fell-70–between-January-and-August-by-covid-19-says.html

    • “…In March, when Africa started to enter lockdown, some of the smaller, African-owned tour operators went bust: their margins were just too thin. Modest, locally run lodges and guides suffered what one of them, the Tanzanian Robert Chekwaze, described to me as “the brute force” of the virus.

      “Chekwaze is a wildlife biologist and founder of Nale Moru, a family-owned safari business based in his country. “Nobody talks about catching the virus any more,” he says. “They talk about the Covid economy. We have been through Ebola, terrorism in Kenya, but no recent disaster comes close to the economic effects on the country right now.”

      https://www.ft.com/content/6a4f6c76-8a00-46ef-a645-23a5eda58825

  5. When your back is against the wall…you reach for the GOLD
    (Bloomberg) — Central banks became gold sellers for the first time since 2010 as some producing nations exploited near-record prices to soften the blow from the coronavirus pandemic.
    Net sales totaled 12.1 tons of bullion in the third quarter, compared with purchases of 141.9 tons a year earlier, according to a report by the World Gold Council. Selling was driven by Uzbekistan and Turkey, while Russia’s central bank posted its first quarterly sale in 13 years, the WGC said.
    While inflows into exchange-traded funds have driven gold’s advance in 2020, buying by central banks has helped underpin bullion in recent years. Citigroup Inc. last month predicted that central bank demand would rebound in 2021, after slowing this year from near-record purchases in both 2018 and 2019.
    …….The fall off in jewelry was partially offset by 21% jump in demand from investors, according to the WGC, which draws data from both the International Monetary Fund and Metals Focus. Gold bars and coins made up most of the increase, as flows into exchange-traded funds slowed from preceding quarters.
    Total supply of gold declined 3% year-on-year as mine production remained depressed, even after Covid-19 restrictions were lifted in producers like South Africa. A quarterly uptick in recycling softened the decline, with consumers cashing in on high prices.
    That’s a BIG fear 😂 of gold bugs…the CBs unloading their hoard of the gold and crashing the price….

  6. Even the DEAD can’t escape Collapse….came across this video series on an abandoned burial cemetery mausoleum 6 acres site that’s fallen is an advanced state of decay, disrepair and natural succession to pre BAU. No one wants to own up because of the expense it would require to make it “legal”. The State does not have the monies and the current parties of title just wish to walk away. Apparently, families of the departed are caught in limbo…
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YK3luW–wcU

    Perhaps a glimpse of the days ahead for us all….
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=giZN0ZuDERY&t=12s

    Been listening to talks of Alan Watts soothing, melodic Voice

    • I had Watts as a guest prof at college– one never knew what direction it was going to head.
      I enjoyed it.
      Something that would not happen today, not a chance.
      Ah, the 60’s——–

      • Duncan, Fortune did smile upon you it seems from the comments you posted of your past. Yes, the 1960s were a magical time!❤️🌈😜💖
        https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=d2_wuNkRE40

        Of course. Wonder if it would have happened if not for the bumps in the road..
        Vietnam War, Cold War, Racial Inequality, environmental degradations, ect

    • The first video reminds me of Alan Weisman’s “World Without Us” (2007). Possibly the most interesting book I have read.

      • Yes, it does indeed! I remember that title and it did great widespread exposure at the time and this is a present example of that occurrence of a world without us! Thank you for the citation

    • Watts is right, worrying about death is as silly as worrying about being born.

      Experiencing the world as a computational hallucination inside your brain is however quite convincing. The ultimate smoke and mirrors in human existence.

      Imagine people busying themselves with mundane matters day in and out, wasting time and money on frivolous jank. Not even a single intellectual journey through the mystery of it all. Safely stuck in traffic jams between a work they hate and a house that is a rickety shed with some gaudy fake chrome and solar panels on top.

      But don’t get me wrong, life is precious. It should at all times be respected, and as is with life in general. Humans got a definitive expiery date programmed in every cell of the body.

      Let’s go do something interesting, like rocket ourselves to the moon and drill for natural resources. That will be awesome.

      😎

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