2021: More troubles likely

Most people expect that the economy of 2021 will be an improvement from 2020. I don’t think so. Perhaps COVID-19 will be somewhat better, but other aspects of the economy will likely be worse.

Back in November 2020, I showed a chart illustrating the path that energy consumption seems to be on. The sharp downturn in energy consumption has occurred partly because the cost of oil, gas and coal production tends to rise, since the portion that is least expensive to extract and ship tends to be removed first.

At the same time, prices that energy producers are able to charge their customers don’t rise enough to compensate for their higher costs. Ultimate customers are ordinary wage earners, and their wages are not escalating as rapidly as fossil fuel production and delivery costs. It is the low selling price of fossil fuels, relative to the rising cost of production, that causes a collapse in the production of fossil fuels. This is the crisis we are now facing.

Figure 1. Estimate by Gail Tverberg of World Energy Consumption from 1820 to 2050. Amounts for earliest years based on estimates in Vaclav Smil’s book Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects and BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy for the years 1965 to 2019. Energy consumption for 2020 is estimated to be 5% below that for 2019. Energy for years after 2020 is assumed to fall by 6.6% per year, so that the amount reaches a level similar to renewables only by 2050. Amounts shown include more use of local energy products (wood and animal dung) than BP includes.

With lower energy consumption, many things tend to go wrong at once: The rich get richer while the poor get poorer. Protests and uprisings become more common. The poorer citizens and those already in poor health become more vulnerable to communicable diseases. Governments feel a need to control their populations, partly to keep down protests and partly to prevent the further spread of disease.

If we look at the situation shown on Figure 1 on a per capita basis, the graph doesn’t look quite as steep, because lower energy consumption tends to bring down population. This reduction in population can come from many different causes, including illnesses, fewer babies born, less access to medical care, inadequate clean water and starvation.

Figure 2. Amounts shown in Figure 1, divided by population estimates by Angus Maddison for earliest years and by 2019 United Nations population estimates for years to 2020. Future population estimated to be falling half as quickly as energy supply is falling in Figure 1. World population drops to 2.8 billion by 2050.

What Is Ahead for 2021?

In many ways, it is good that we really don’t know what is ahead for 2021. All aspects of GDP production require energy consumption. A huge drop in energy consumption is likely to mean disruption in the world economy of varying types for many years to come. If the situation is likely to be bad, many of us don’t really want to know how bad.

We know that many civilizations have had the same problem that the world does today. It usually goes by the name “Collapse” or “Overshoot and Collapse.” The problem is that the population becomes too large for the resource base. At the same time, available resources may degrade (soils erode or lose fertility, mines deplete, fossil fuels become harder to extract). Eventually, the economy becomes so weakened that any minor disturbance – attack from an outside army, or shift in weather patterns, or communicable disease that raises the death rate a bit – threatens to bring down the whole system. I see our current economic problem as much more of an energy problem than a COVID-19 problem.

We know that when earlier civilizations collapsed, the downfall tended not to happen all at once. Based on an analysis by Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov in their book, Secular Cycles, economies tended to first hit a period of stagflation, for perhaps 40 or 50 years. In a way, today’s economy has been in a period of stagflation since the 1970s, when it became apparent that oil was becoming more difficult to extract. To hide the problem, increasing debt was issued at ever-lower interest rates.

According to Turchin and Nefedov, the stagflation stage eventually moves into a steeper “crisis” period, marked by overturned governments, debt defaults, and falling population. In the examples analyzed by Turchin and Nefedov, this crisis portion of the cycle took 20 to 50 years. It seems to me that the world economy reached the beginning of the crisis period in 2020 when lockdowns in response to the novel coronavirus pushed the weakened world economy down further.

The examples examined by Turchin and Nefedov occurred in the time period before fossil fuels were widely used. It may very well be that the current collapse takes place more rapidly than those in the past, because of dependency on international supply lines and an international banking system. The world economy is also very dependent on electricity–something that may not last. Thus, there seems to be a chance that the crisis phase may last a shorter length of time than 20 to 50 years. It likely won’t last only a year or two, however. The economy can be expected to fall apart, but somewhat slowly. The big questions are, “How slowly?” “Can some parts continue for years, while others disappear quickly?”

Some Kinds of Things to Expect in 2021 (and beyond)

[1] More overturned governments and attempts at overturned governments.

With increasing wage disparity, there tend to be more and more unhappy workers at the bottom end of the wage distribution. At the same time, there are likely to be people who are unhappy with the need for high taxes to try to fix the problems of the people at the bottom end of the wage distribution. Either of these groups can attempt to overturn their government if the government’s handling of current problems is not to the group’s liking.

[2] More debt defaults.

During the stagflation period that the world economy has been through, more and more debt has been added at ever-lower interest rates. Much of this huge amount of debt relates to property that is no longer of much use (airplanes without passengers; office buildings that are no longer needed because people now work at home; restaurants without enough patrons; factories without enough orders). Governments will try to avoid defaults as long as possible, but eventually, the unreasonableness of this situation will prevail. The impact of defaults can be expected to affect many parts of the economy, including banks, insurance companies and pension plans.

[3] Extraordinarily slow progress in defeating COVID-19.

There seems to be a significant chance that COVID-19 is lab-made. In fact, the many variations of COVID-19 may also be lab made. Researchers around the world have been studying “Gain of Function” in viruses for more than 20 years, allowing the researchers to “tweak” viruses in whatever way they desire. There seem to be several variations on the original virus now. A suicidal/homicidal researcher could decide to “take out” as many other people as possible, by creating yet another variation on COVID-19.

To make matters worse, immunity to coronaviruses in general doesn’t seem to be very long lasting. According to an October 2020 article, 35-year study hints that coronavirus immunity doesn’t last long. Analyzing other coronaviruses, it concluded that immunity tends to disappear quite quickly, leading to an annual cycle of illnesses such as colds. There seems to be a substantial chance that COVID-19 will return on an annual basis. If vaccines generate a similar immunity pattern, we will be facing an issue of needing new vaccines every year, as we do with the flu.

[4] Cutbacks on education of many kinds.

Many people getting advanced degrees find that the time and expense did not lead to an adequate financial reward afterwards. At the same time, universities find that there are not many grants to support faculty, outside of the STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Math) fields. With this combination of problems, universities with limited budgets make the financial decision to reduce or eliminate programs with reduced student interest and no outside funding.

At the same time, if local school districts find themselves short of funds, they may choose to use distance learning, simply to save money. This type of cutback could affect grade school children, especially in poor areas.

[5] Increasing loss of the top layers of governments.

It takes money/energy to support extra layers of government. The UK is now completely out of the European Union. We can expect to see more changes of this type. The UK may dissolve into smaller regions. Other parts of the EU may leave. This problem could affect many countries around the world, such as China or countries of the Middle East.

[6] Less globalization; more competition among countries.

Every country is struggling with the problem of not enough jobs that pay well. This is really an energy-related problem. Instead of co-operating, countries will tend to increasingly compete, in the hope that their country can somehow get a larger share of the higher-paying jobs. Tariffs will continue to be popular.

[7] More empty shelves in stores.

In 2020, we discovered that supply lines can break, making it impossible to purchase products a person expects. In fact, new governmental rules can have the same impact, for example, if a country bans travel to its country. We should expect more of this in 2021, and in the years ahead.

[8] More electrical outages, especially in locations where reliance on intermittent wind and solar for electricity is high.

In most places in the world, oil products were available before electricity. On the way down, we should expect to see the reverse of this pattern: Electricity will disappear first because it is hardest to maintain a constant supply. Oil will be available, at least as long as is electricity.

There is a popular belief that we will “run out of oil,” and that renewable electricity can be a solution. I do not think that intermittent electricity can be a solution for anything. It works poorly. At most, it acts as a temporary extender to fossil fuel-provided electricity.

[9] Possible hyperinflation, as countries issue more and more debt and no longer trust each other.

I often say that I expect oil and energy prices to stay low, but this doesn’t really hold if many countries around the world issue more and more government debt as a way to try to keep businesses from failing, debt from defaulting, and stock market prices inflated. There is a danger that all prices will inflate, and that sellers of products will no longer accept the hyperinflated currency that countries around the world are trying to provide.

My concern is that international trade will break down to a significant extent as hyperinflation of all currencies becomes a problem. The higher prices of oil and other energy products won’t really lead to any more production because prices of all goods and services will be inflating at the same time; fossil fuel producers will not get any special benefit from these higher prices.

If a significant loss of trade occurs, there will be even more empty shelves because there is very little any one country can make on its own. Without adequate goods, population loss may be very high.

[10] New ways of countries trying to fight with each other.

When there are not enough resources to go around, historically, wars have been fought. I expect wars will continue to be fought, but the approaches will “look different” than in the past. They may involve tariffs on imported goods. They may involve the use of laboratory-made viruses. They may involve attacking the internet of another country, or its electrical distribution system. There may be no officially declared war. Strange things may simply take place that no one understands, without realizing that the country is being attacked.


We seem to be headed for very bumpy waters in the years ahead, including 2021. Our real problem is an energy problem that we do not have a solution for.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,373 Responses to 2021: More troubles likely

  1. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4104828

    WHO inspector caught on camera revealing coronavirus manipulation in Wuhan before pandemic

    The You Tube Video is a This Week in Virology Video, Number 615, Shot on December 9, 2019!


    At the 28:10 mark of the podcast interview, Daszak states that researchers found that SARS likely originated from bats and then set out to find more SARS-related coronaviruses, eventually finding over 100. He observed that some coronaviruses can “get into human cells in the lab,” and others can cause SARS disease in “humanized mouse models.”

    He ominously warned that such coronaviruses are “untreatable with therapeutic monoclonals [antibodies] and you can’t vaccinate against them with a vaccine.” Ironically, he claims that his team’s goal was trying to find the next “spillover event” that could cause the next pandemic, mere weeks before cases of COVID-19 were beginning to be reported in Wuhan.

    When Racaniello asks what can be done to deal with coronavirus given that there is no vaccine or therapeutic for them, Daszak at the 29:54 mark appears to reveal that the goal of the GoF experiments was to develop a pan-coronavirus vaccine for many different types of coronaviruses.

    Based on his response, it is evident that just before the start of the pandemic, the WIV was modifying coronaviruses in the lab. “You can manipulate them in the lab pretty easily.” What he then mentioned has become the telltale trait of SARS-CoV-2, its spike protein: “Spike protein drives a lot of what happens with the coronavirus, zoonotic risk.”

    Daszak mentions the WIV’s collaboration with Baric: “and we work with Ralph Baric at UNC [University of North Carolina] to do this.” As has been suggested by proponents that SARS-CoV-2 is a chimera made in a lab, he speaks of inserting the spike protein “into a backbone of another virus” and then doing “some work in the lab.”

    Providing evidence of the creation of chimeras for the sake of a vaccine, he states “Now, the logical progression for vaccines is, if you are going to develop a vaccine for SARS, people are going to use pandemic SARS, but let’s try to insert these other related diseases and get a better vaccine.”

    Based on Daszak’s statements, it appears that just before the start of the pandemic, the WIV was using GoF experiments with chimeras in an attempt to create a vaccine. These experiments appeared to have included infecting mice genetically modified to express the human ACE2 protein with these chimeras.

    In a presentation titled “Assessing Coronavirus Threats,” which was delivered four years before the pandemic in 2015, Daszak points out that experiments involving humanized mice have the highest degree of risk. Demonstrating his close ties with the WIV, he also listed the lab as a collaborator at the end of the presentation.

  2. Tim Groves says:

    It’s good to talk, as bob Hoskins used to say. So it’s good the Parler, which was uncermoneously booted off of Amazon’s servers last week, has found a way of getting up and running again.

    Parler’s website suddenly appeared online on Jan. 17 with a message from its CEO, John Matze, who said, “Hello world, is this thing on?”

    The message suggests Parler was able to find another hosting service, coming about a week after Amazon Web Services booted the social media website from its services, taking the site down. It came as Parler—billed as a “free speech” platform—was seeing an unprecedented surge in users as prominent conservatives, among others, were being banned from Twitter, Facebook, and other platforms.

    Matze also issued a temporary status update.

    “Now seems like the right time to remind you all—both lovers and haters—why we started this platform,” Matze wrote. “We believe privacy is paramount and free speech essential, especially on social media. Our aim has always been to provide a nonpartisan public square where individuals can enjoy and exercise their rights to both. We will resolve any challenge before us and plan to welcome all of you back soon. We will not let civil discourse perish!”


  3. Xabier says:

    Book recommendation for those who might like to think about living under a tyranny and occupation by an inhuman hostile power

    ‘Village of Secrets’, by Caroline Moorehead.

    The story of a semi-isolated, very rural, plateau in S E France where extremely strict Protestants resisted the Vichy regime and the Nazis, inspired by the Old Testament. It was their belief in doing right come what may which kept them going, and ensured that they nearly all pulled together.

    Not too sad, unlike many such tales, as most of the people involved survived, although a few met truly horrible ends.

  4. Minority Of One says:

    This article was posted over at the Automatic Earth today.

    Anteroom of Our Own Extinction

    “Food insecurity is at a crisis level. Feeding America, the largest hunger relief organization in the US, estimates over 50 million people go hungry every night including something close to twenty million children.”

    I don’t how accurate these numbers are, but if TPTB’s aim is to get the population down by large amounts quickly, looks like they have found a way to accomplish that. It is the same here in the UK. Millions jobless and hungry, and many with a job that pays so little, still hungry.

    • Xabier says:

      If people are under-nourished, not obviously starving, for long enough, they can just die very suddenly, like switching off a light.

      Klaus Schwab’s Swiss father, Eugen, ran a factory in Nazi Germany during the whole war, and they were mostly staffed with slave and forced labour.

      The Germans in WW2 developed the idea of ‘Annihilation through Work’.

      Rations were carefully calculated to get sufficient work out of the slaves, at minimum expense, but inevitably causing their death after a year or so, maybe less.

    • Tango Oscar says:

      If people would just learn to cook real foods you can afford to eat in America for cheap, but people are entitled and dopey for the most part. Giant 25 lb. bags of rice or beans can be obtained for $15 and feed a family for a month. Eating vegan and growing a lot of food to supplement the diet really isn’t as hard as people make it out to be. Also, chewing your food 40 times per bite or so makes it so you can get the same nutrition on about 1/2 the food quantity.

      • That approach works as long as 25 lb bags of rice and beans are available. These are the staples that disappear from grocery store shelves as we hit limits.

        I am sure that where I live I couldn’t grow rice–perhaps I could grow some sweet potatoes. I have tried planting beans and haven’t gotten very many. I got a little bit of corn one year, but I am sure I would have to fertilize to keep that up.

        • Xabier says:

          As societies become impoverished, food will probably sold only in smaller bags, which is all they will be able to afford that week.

          Bigger profits for the shops, too.

          Moreover, the authorities could use method that to stop people from acquiring a stock of food to fall back on – making them more vulnerable, and also impossible to help others.

          UBI, for instance, could be calculated to ensure people can buy just so much to scrape by, and no more.

          Much as the Germans in WW2 allowed people enough rations to work, but not sufficient to be strong and resistant.

      • Erdles says:

        I bought a 25Kg bag of locally grown potatoes from a farm for £7.50 yesterday. It will take all winter to munch my way through those.

    • The estimate of 50 million going to bed hungry including 20 million children was based in a US survey in March-April of 2020. I expect it was at the worst of the layoffs, before the efforts to get food to the hungry ramped up.

  5. adonis says:

    this is the future predictions for 2021 unfortunately the truth may be a bitter pill to swallow https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKCTkLJbtT4

  6. Harry McGibbs says:

    “A surge in state investments has helped lift the Chinese economy from the effects of Covid-19, but likely has worsened one of its deepest weaknesses: low productivity.
    Beijing has pulled off a robust economic recovery since early last year, when authorities locked down much of the country to combat the coronavirus epidemic.

    “But the rebound has been unbalanced. It relied heavily on government expenditures and state-sector investments, while private spending remained weak.”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “China powered through the pandemic on a mix of social tranquilizers and economic Red Bull, and now it’s time to deal with the headache.”


      • Xabier says:

        Alice Freidemann has a good article on what an ecological disaster China is, and how ‘Green’ tech will only exacerbate this.

        • Harry McGibbs says:

          I can’t find Alice’s article but “Green” tech is an ecological nightmare. It boggles my mind that the general public has swallowed wholesale the lie that wind and solar are kind to the biosphere.

          “The dark side of renewable energy… rare earth mining, whether legal or not, entails shocking environmental costs.”


        • I think the article Xabier is referring to can be fondant this link:


          It is really a review of this book, which is available at Amazon, published in October 2020:

          Pitron G. 2020. The Rare Metals War: The Dark Side of Clean Energy and Digital Technologies.


          I don’t think the article is really about what an ecological disaster China is. China is not mentioned in the title, but it is mentioned 49 times in her write-up.

          The blurb by the author of the book includes this paragraph.

          This book reveals the dark side of the world that awaits us. It is an undercover tale of a technological odyssey that has promised much, and a look behind the scenes. Behind it all lurks China, which has captured the lion’s share of the ownership and processing of rare metals we now can’t do without. Drawing on six years of research across a dozen countries, this book shows that by breaking free of fossil fuels, we are in fact setting ourselves up for a new dependence―on rare metals that have become vital to our new ecological and digital society.

          • Xabier says:

            Yes, it’s a broad article, but the % of ruined poisoned farmland and ground water in China is notable.

            A real ‘Out of the fossil fuels frying pan into the renewables fire’ situation.

            Good definition of so-called renewables as being in reality ‘rebuildables’ and not self-renewing.

            One can only hope that ecological collapse itself terminates the WEF project.

    • According to the article:

      “The IMF estimates that annual productivity growth averaged just 0.6% between 2012 and 2017, a sharp decline from an average of 3.5% in the previous five years. The downward trend likely has continued, according to the fund, as China’s economic growth has weakened further.”

      Prior to 2012, coal production was growing. The growth in coal consumption additionally leveraged the labor of workers. When coal supply stopped growing, productivity flattened. This should not be a surprise. It is cheap energy consumption that keeps the economy going.

  7. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Brexit and COVID-19 have thrown another spanner in the works for the UK car industry as several factories have been forced to limit or shutter production.

    “Parts shortages and ports delays have already caused issues for the automotive industry, now Jaguar, Land Rover, Nissan and Vauxhall are all curbing activity supply chain issues are ironed out.”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Audi will delay the production of some of its high-end cars because of the “massive” shortage of computer chips that is sweeping across the automotive industry, its chief executive said.

      “The luxury car marque, part of the Volkswagen group, has put more than 10,000 workers on furlough because the chip shortage has slowed its production lines…”


    • The chip shortage is in many ways similar to the empty grocery store shelf problem. Except the chips are needed in many manufacturing supply chains. It would be surprising to find out that automobiles are the only product affected.

      • Minority Of One says:

        There was an article, possibly in China in Focus, pre-Christmas saying that China in general was seriously short of high-end chips. They apparently don’t make many themselves, mostly imported.

        • I found a Reuter’s article talking about this issue. The issue they are talking about seems to be a Trump administration plan to squeeze China, since they don’t make chips on their own, and for fear that they will be copying US technology.


          In at least one case, the shortage ties back to President Donald Trump’s policies aimed at curtailing technology transfers to China.

          One automaker moved chip production from China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International, or SMIC, which was hit with U.S. government restrictions in December, to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co in Taiwan, which in turn was overbooked, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters.

          An auto supplier confirmed TSMC has been unable to keep up with demand.


          First, the White House in September banned Huawei Technologies Co Ltd, the Chinese telecommunications giant and a major smartphone maker, from buying chips made with American technology. . .

          Second, the U.S. government enacted rules that bar SMIC from using some U.S. tools to make chips, a move that has prompted at least some of SMIC’s customers to look for a different chip factory because of concerns that production could be disrupted.

        • Another article:


          China’s Drive to Make Semiconductor Chips Is Failing

          The stunning success of U.S. efforts to hobble Huawei shows the fragility of Beijing’s highly centralized tech sector.

          Despite all the promised investment, China’s chipmakers and designers now seem to be short on cash. Huawei going cap in hand to the Shenzhen government is no surprise, given its high exposure to the U.S. and Indian markets. But other Chinese chipmakers with little connection to the United States are also facing financial difficulties. Wuhan’s Hongxin Semiconductor Manufacturing Company had promised to build China’s first 7-nanometer chip fab, but ran out of money in August. It has since been taken over by the municipal district government—effectively a bailout.

          The article gives several more examples. It then says

          If China is allowing such well-connected firms as semiconductor foundries and university research groups to go bust, financial conditions in the country must be much more dire than its announcements of multibillion-dollar investment funds would suggest.

          • Minority Of One says:

            “Today, only 16 percent of China’s semiconductors are made locally, and these tend to be the least sophisticated in every category.”

            • Wow! I wonder how many computers China can make without imported chips?

            • Jarle says:

              Who’s making the fancy ductors then?

            • Tim Groves says:

              Who’s making high-end semicondutors?

              The United States, some European countries, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan…. And China is seeking to become a major player.

              But ultimately, semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME), not chips, is a key technology. Between them, the U.S., Japan and the Netherlands account for 90% of SME production, and China has to buy from them if it wants to make its own chips.

              According to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), Canada, European countries and the United States are leaders in semiconductor design and high-end manufacturing. Japan, the United States and some European countries are main sources for equipment and raw materials. China, Taiwan, Malaysia and others in the Asia-Pacific tend to concentrate in the manufacturing, assembling, testing and packaging segment of the industry.


  8. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Even as we deal with the economic problems of the pandemic, there’s another crisis looming: our national debt. The problem in the US is our debt isn’t the “good” kind of debt.

    “Our debt continues to rise without promise of repayment, and a majority of tax dollars are spent on mandatory spending. The debt crisis is not going away…”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “The trans-Atlantic gulf in fiscal stimulus has widened into an immense chasm. The Great Decoupling of 2020-2022 is accelerating.

      “America is letting rip with relief and recovery spending on a scale unseen since Franklin Roosevelt’s war economy. Europe risks repeating its post-Lehman error, reverting to the EU’s default policy of austerity and Ordoliberal debt brakes.”


    • According to the article:

      A rising proportion of what we pay in taxes is going only to mandatory spending, fixed payments on programs like Medicare or financial items like the interest on our outstanding debt that must be funded regardless of the health of the country or our economy. As of now, our country must pay 69.9% of our tax dollars simply to meet fixed obligations that cannot be reduced. In 1962, it was about 32%. You would never lend money to a business that consumes 70% of its revenue just to meet overhead obligations.

  9. Fast Eddy says:

    Germany to repurpose refugee camps to detain people who repeatedly flout Covid rules by going out when they should be quarantining

    – Germans who don’t quarantine to be held in detention centres under Covid rules
    – State of Saxony has confirmed plans to hold rule-breakers in a refugee camp
    – Baden-Württemberg will use two hospital rooms under watch of German police
    – Schleswig-Holstein will use an area within a juvenile detention centre

    Germans who refuse to quarantine after being exposed to Covid will be held in detention centres under new rules prepared by regional authorities.

    The eastern state of Saxony has confirmed plans to hold quarantine-flouters in a fenced-off section of a refugee camp set to be build next week.

    The regional state claimed that the facility will only be used for people who have repeatedly flouted lockdown rules around self-isolation.


    German states plan to lock up quarantine breakers

    Berlin: Germans who repeatedly refuse to quarantine after being exposed to the coronavirus will be locked up in detention centres under tough rules drawn up by regional authorities and permitted by emergency powers.


    Canada Leak:

    Essentially we were told it was our duty to make sure we came up with a plan to ensure that would never happen. We were told it was in the individuals best interest to participate. When several committee members pushed relentlessly to get an answer we were told that those who refused would first live under the lock down restrictions indefinitely.

    In the end it was implied by the PMO that the whole agenda will move forward no matter who agrees with it or not.

    That it won’t just be Canada but in fact all nations will have similar roadmaps and agendas.

    • Robert Firth says:

      I hope the ever prudent Germans had the good sense to save those expensive “Arbeit Macht Frei” signs, now that they are needed again.

    • It is hard for an economy to be very productive when a significant share of its population cannot work because it is under quarantine.

      This is a source of the big absenteeism problem some companies are experiencing now.

      • Absenteeism, and volatile volume of production leads to final lower quality even in highly automated factories. That’s why the end of BAU will be (is) rather depressing event, even posh products turning into junk. Not all segments are affected as of now yet, but the list will be growing..

    • grete0610 says:

      Today we celebrate the founding of the German Empire that took place exactly 150 years ago on the 18th of January 1871
      No offical celebrating, like it had never happened. Sad.

    • Grete says:


      Today we celebrate the founding of the German Empire that took place exactly 150 years ago on the 18th of January 1871
      No official celebration, sad.

      • Harry says:

        I thought so too, but the current zeitgeist would rather erase its own history than accept it (with all its ups and downs), identify with it and of course learn from it. Just like the Chinese do.
        You are also from Germany?

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        British State is busy planning its ‘celebrations’ of the 100th anniversary of the partition of Ireland in 1921 and the founding of the sectarian statelet there. UK retains its public self-confidence because it has never had the international humiliation for the British Empire that Germany had after the war. Victors get to write the history – until they don’t.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      > Lockdown rule-breakers could be thrown in police cell, warns Devon and Cornwall force

      Devon and Cornwall’s police chief has warned people who break lockdown rules this weekend could “end up in a police cell”.

      The southwest counties – particularly Cornwall – have seen soaring rates of Covid-19 cases in recent weeks, with an accompanying increase in fines handed out by officers to those flouting the national restrictions.

      But Chief Constable Shaun Sawyer suggested rule-breakers could face more severe sanctions in the coming days.

      “For the few [breaking the law], you will get a ticket and if needs be you will be arrested,” Mr Sawyer told the BBC’s Spotlight.


      • Rbert Firth says:

        “Lockdown rule-breakers could be thrown in police cell, warns Devon and Cornwall force.”

        Only tyrants and board games have “rules”. Legitimate polities are governed by “laws”.

  10. Tim Groves says:

    It’s finally happening, folks. Finally something to cheer us all up in the New Year. And what a feast for the ears, the eyes and the soul!!

    HH the Dalai “Make Me One with Everything” Lama, aka “The Noble Gem”, and Greta “How Dare You!” Thunberg enjoy a socially-distanced chat about the climate together with a cast of like-minded minions. It’s a shame the Pontiff couldn’t join them, but I adore both of these two performers immensely.

    His Holiness the Dalai Lama will engage in a conversation on The Crisis of Climate Feedback Loops with Greta Thunberg (environmental activist), William Moomaw (lead author on reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/IPCC, and the co-recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize) and Susan Natali (a renowned Arctic scientist) from his residence in Dharamsala, HP, India on January 10, 2021. The conversation will be moderated by Diana Chapman Walsh, President emerita of Wellesley College and is organized by the Mind & Life Institute. Viewers are requested to please follow their local social distancing rules while viewing the live webcast.

  11. Tim Groves says:

    It really is unbelievable it would get this far.


    It’s unbelievable, it’s strange but true
    It’s inconceivable it could happen to you
    You go north and you go south
    Just like bait in the fish’s mouth
    Ya must be livin’ in the shadow of some kind of evil star
    It’s unbelievable it would get this far

    It’s undeniable what they’d have you to think
    It’s indescribable, it can drive you to drink
    They said it was the land of milk and honey
    Now they say it’s the land of money
    Who ever thought they could ever make that stick
    It’s unbelievable you can get this rich this quick

    Every head is so dignified
    Every moon is so sanctified
    Every urge is so satisfied as long as you’re with me
    All the silver, all the gold
    All the sweethearts you can hold
    That don’t come back with stories untold
    Are hanging on a tree

    It’s unbelievable like a lead balloon
    It’s so impossible to even learn the tune
    Kill that beast and feed that swine
    Scale that wall and smoke that vine
    Feed that horse and saddle up the drum
    It’s unbelievable, the day would finally come

    Once there was a man who had no eyes
    Every lady in the land told him lies
    He stood beneath the silver sky and his heart began to bleed
    Every brain is civilized
    Every nerve is analyzed
    Everything is criticized when you are in need

    It’s unbelievable, it’s fancy-free
    So interchangeable, so delightful to see
    Turn your back, wash your hands
    There’s always someone who understands
    It don’t matter no more what you got to say
    It’s unbelievable it would go down this way

    — Bob Dylan

  12. Kowalainen says:

    From the department of the blindingly obvious:

    “Whole Foods CEO John Mackey: The ‘best solution’ is to not need health care and for Americans to change how they eat and live”

    Oh really, who’d have thought.


    • When the easy option is “Fast Food” and that is what all your friends eat, it is hard to see the blindingly obvious.

    • D3G says:

      Check out the new USDA Dietary Guidelines just released. They are still recommending three cups of dairy per day. Nothing like growth fluid from another species to keep you in top performance.


      • I wasn’t going to suggest that

        • D3G says:

          This sort of thing grinds my gears, Norman. Can I borrow your head banging cushion? In my case it will be for protecting the wall.

          The USDA recommends 1200mg of calcium per day. In the UK the recommendation is 700mg and the WHO is calling for 500mg daily. A plant based diet easily provides the cacium we need, but a dairy industry needs to be supported.


          “You’ll probably be surprised to learn that many health authorities don’t agree with that recommendation. Dr. Walter Willett, chair of the Department of Nutrition at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, thinks you’re likely to do just as well on half as much calcium.”

          “Essentially, I think that adults do not need 1,200 mg of calcium a day. The World Health Organization’s recommendation of 500 mg is probably about right. The United Kingdom sets the goal at 700 mg, which is fine, too. It allows for a little leeway,”

          • certainly
            but I may need it back if there’s another conspiracy emergency

            and the stuffing is getting thin these days so be careful

          • Robert Firth says:

            I think this is a rather more nuanced problem. Babies need calcium for their growing bones, and since the only good source of baby food is Mother, she also needs it..

            Also, the input amount of calcium is not important; what matters is how much is absorbed, and that means milk is more effective than plants, where the calcium is more dilute and harder for the digestive system to extract.

            Cow milk is problematic for people with lactose intolerance, which is why several Asian and African societies fermented it. I noticed growing up in Africa that milk was not a staple; even the cow herding Fulani tended to avoid it.

          • Kowalainen says:

            Give me one person in the west that suffers from a calcium deficiency due to a vegan diet. Yes, exactly zero, unless that person lives on Coca Cola, potato chips and white bread.

            The same with proteins.

            You might wonder which primate species on earth is dependent on animal foodstuffs?

            Glad you asked. I can with 100% certainty answer. That primate species does not exist.

            However, a primate can survive on cooked animal products (except for milk). But to survive isn’t the same as thriving. Just have a good long look at the populace of the west, specially the U.S. Now try to get fat and unhealthy on a plant based diet. Yup, good luck.

            I’m sick and tired of that bs regarding B12, grass fed, calcium, zinc, yada yada. 🥱

            Look people, if you really want to stuff yourselves with animal products. Go right ahead. You ain’t fooling nobody with those fallacies.

            • as I understand it, babies cannot fully thrive on a wholly vegan diet

              humankind is a predatory meat eater, even though we have a choice not to be.

              we can determine this very easily, we have forward facing eyes with stereoscopic vision, linked to hands and teeth able to grasp and tear food, inherited through probably 50 k generations of our forebears who did not enjoy the luxury of deciding what to have for dinner.

              Our babies still depend on us to catch dinner on their behalf. Nice clothes and warm houses might dress up that fact, but they don’t change it.

              Our vision is much the same as any other predatory species, lions, eagles and so on. they catch and eat.

              On the other hand, species with eyes that face sideways, are the ones at risk of getting caught and eaten, the grazers. They do not have stereoscopic vision.
              Their eyes have evolved to warn against the likes of us sneaking up on them.

              All very logical in an evolutionary , rather than emotional, sense

            • Kowalainen says:

              Norman, you’re making it too easy.

              Yup, so does other primates as well, forward looking eyes indeed, to not miss that branch falling to impending doom some 50m below.

              Compare your teeth to that of a gorilla or orangutan. Now ponder upon which of the three primate specimens has the most formidable grin?

              The gorilla could bite off your arm in one chump. Yeah, there you go Mr. “Apex Predator”.

              Oh yeah, you know how to throw sticks and stones at animals until they laugh themselves to death.

              “Apex predator” my ass.


            • we all carry physiological traits that might or might not transform into distinct survival advantage 100 k generations hence.

              but to do that those advantages have to be passed on over that period of time

              they might

              they might not

              that’s where chance comes in.

              predators, climate change, a meteorite strike might wipe my genetic line out altogether, so it might never happen—or it might.

              I often think of the millions of SOBs who reached the age of reproduction, just to put me here to wind up other doomsters and live a life of inconsequence—on the other hand one of my descendants might be the next Napoleon or Genghis khan or ruler of the planet Zarg.
              (modesty runs in my family btw)

          • info says:

            “The USDA recommends 1200mg of calcium per day. In the UK the recommendation is 700mg and the WHO is calling for 500mg daily. A plant based diet easily provides the cacium we need, but a dairy industry needs to be supported.”

            Plant based diets need a lot more farmland than the grass that the cows feed on.

            Plus many people who do go Vegan end up malnourished. So even if the plant-based diet appears to work.

            Most people screw it up. And am forced to go back to meat and dairy due to all the health problems.

            • Robert Firth says:

              I don’t care if people go vegan, vegetarian, or vampire. What I object to is the intolerable arrogance that makes them believe they are climbing the moral high ground by abstaining from X Y and Z.

              De gustibus non est disputandum.

            • Kowalainen says:

              “Most people”. Reference to that? I ran a plant based cusine for about 3 years, while cranking out some 40km’s daily. I’d easily smoke anyone on the LCHF and Atkins.

              I would say that over 40% of the U.S. population is malnourished, due to obesity from imbalances between nutrients and calories.

              It is no wonder that the hoi-polloi eating the Asian and mediterran diets high in plant based foodstuffs live the longest.

              Not only healthier, but longer living.

  13. Slow Paul says:


    Alan Watts on money, automation and psychology. Interesting that he already knew about the pitfalls of automation in the 60s-70s.

    • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

      Thank you for the link on Alan Watts🎆. I, myself, have been on YouTube listening to many of his discourses on a wide range of topics. I agree, this one is worth a listen to for us all here on OFW. Gives one a deeper, broader outlook on the conditioning of people’s behavior and societal structure.
      Plus his voice tone is rather easy, soothing to hear.

    • Ed says:

      this youtube is removed

  14. D3G says:


    Avionics? My short answer is yes. A more long winded response is under OFW quarantine.


  15. D3G says:

    Norman Pagett

    As I understand it, Great Britain has a publicly funded heath care system called the NHS. Do you consider that to be radical socialsm? The US is the only industrialized nation in the world without a it. If anything, that fact should be considered radical. Biden promises to veto anything that smacks of Healthcare for all. That doesn’t sound the least bit raving Marxist to me, rather a right wing perspective by a life long politician beholding to corporate interests. That brings me to another point which was made, the notion of a left in the US. Maybe another time…after you watch the video. 😁 Cheers, D3G

    • I think you misunderstood me

      I said: ‘people have Biden down as a raving Marxist’ (or something like that.)

      I did not by any means infer that he was one. I that would have been obvious

      Have lost track of the videos on this thread that you mentioned

    • Wolfbay says:

      Biden is the tool of the corporate media, multinational corporations , Silicon Valley billionaires and the military industrial complex. Democrats supposedly are the champions of the working class but their hypocrisy has become so glaringly obvious that millions of working class people voted for Trump. Biden would be considered right wing in a European election and rightly so.

      • D3G says:

        Exactly, Wolfbay.

      • JoJo says:

        Its certainly intriguing alliance. Biden actually represents the first president who really is not charismatic or even functional and therefore represents something different, a party and ideology. Ideology is greater than actual actions in this format. The entire world knows the election was stolen and some are aghast and some are laughing at the USA. The bargain struck; China continues to provide manufactured goods for fiat but the USA must now consolidate the party rule using both the usual and new methods. The message has already been clearly communicated ideology coming first is not optional. All other benefits of society are dependent on accepting ideology unconditionally. Accepting the ideology comes not only with words for the individual but in compliance to the state in the final act of subjugation accepting gene modification of ones own body. China hopes to be able to bring the USA completely under this intriguing alliance of actors control while at the same time retaining some of its creativity and innovation so it may be harvested. It remains to be seen if both creativity and ideological control can exist and to what degree in the culture formally know as the USA. The barrier to this is at its essence a difference in beliefs. God as demonstrated in the beauty of the natural world vs human ideology.

        • ((this comment is written to condense my own thinking into rational order)))


          Presidents are carried along on the tide of events, just like the rest of us.

          they might make big waves or small waves, make war or make peace or just make noise, but they will ultimately be swamped by that tide of events they assert they can control.

          At least Canute was man enough to show that he couldn’t.

          most are not that honest.


          Trump was at least honest enough to reveal himself as a crook before he got elected, and the gullible still voted him into office. (they too wanted part of his Ponzi scheme)
          Got to admire him for that. Even the consistency of his ‘fake news’.

          Especially as every vote counting house had impartial observers from both parties…. and the only those where Trump lost found themselves in dispute.

          ( there’s never been an explanation for that? Bought off by Biden’s Chinese chums maybe?)

          Still–lets not miss out on an entertaining conspiracy.


          Ideologies are not somehow ‘created’ to form foundations of political movements.

          Ideologies arise in tandem with the growth medium of existing current social environment. As our current ‘state’ begins its inevitable decline because of unaffordable support energy, the ‘ideology’ of fascism will grow in response to our denial/rejection of it.

          Just as it did in Germany in 1933.
          87 years ago is not ancient history.

          Had the German nation not been in a state of financial collapse (post ww1 and 1929) Hit ler’s ‘ideology’ would not have taken root and flourished. The German people were in denial. Hit ler offered ‘alternative facts’ for them to believe in. They chose to believe.

          If the USA was still living the ‘American Dream’ fantasy of the 50s/60s, Trumpism would not have taken root. Trump is only the symptom, he is not the cause. He too offered ‘alternative facts’ about a stolen election which the mob chose to believe.
          (The theme of his 4 year tenure)

          He primed them for months before the election with those ‘alternative facts’.
          Election Day became just the confirmation, ready to be swallowed by the gullible. Which they duly did.

          It was a repeat of the burning of the Reichstag, albeit on a smaller scale. The mob reacted just as Trump told them to.

          Now there’s 30000 soldiers around the Capitol, a unique event, never needed till now. Does no one really consider why? No previous election has ever needed that. Or razor wire fences. Never been a reason to check the loyalty of presidential guards, (as one might have to do in a ‘banana republic)

          The gullible mob sees soldiers as the ‘adversary’ now, put there as confirmation that they are to be subjected, a subjection that must be violently resisted.

          Social media aids the spread of the virus of alternative facts, faster than George Orwell could have imagined it. But he forecast it accurately. People repeat them to mist the truth.

          A constant thread even on OFW is the myth of universal mind control and subjection by means too bizarre to bear repetition. (corrupted vaccines anyone?)
          Your fascist dictator cannot flourish without lies to fuel conflict.

          Suddenly every state capitol is at risk, and so is every state official. They cannot be protected. The gun happy mob know this.
          What was a democratic nation (sort of) has been shaken by that tide of events that no president can control.
          The same applies to the EU. I do not exclude my end of the world from this insanity.


          We are witnessing the decline of energy availability, dressed up as political agenda. People with full bellies, jobs and stable homes do not aspire to revolution. The election deniers see their lifestyles under threat, and look for scapegoats.

          Check back again to 1933 Germany, and check on their scapegoats. They had no Mexicans or muslims or people of colour. But there was no shortage of ‘others’ to focus on. The vast majority of the German people were innocent, but were cowed by the (same) driven mob, and so became complicit.
          They were sucked into the conflict created by ‘alternative facts’.
          They were given the certainty of the 1000 year Reich. Germany effectively consumed itself in its efforts for world domination.

          The ultimate Ponzi scheme.

          As conditions worsen, which Biden will be unable to prevent, the same sequence of events will recycle themselves and destroy the nation that refused to excise its social cancer.
          Rampant unchecked capitalism must consume itself. Again, this is what a Ponzi scheme is.

          WW2 was a war over resources. We are witnessing a repeat of it, but played out differently. The USA is at war with itself over resources that no longer exist.

          • I think that the resource war is also going on internationally, but in ways we don’t recognize. The shortage of silicon chips in China is an example.

            • All wars are resource wars.

              We thought major wars were over because no nation could afford to put millions of men in uniforms and sail them overseas to kill each other

              Few if any imagined that WW3 would be a resource war of a totally different nature

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              All life is will to power, to dominate, to devour. If humans are not fighting, it is only because peace and cooperation temporarily furthers power better. Humans are cooperative predators. Resource wars have been going on nevertheless, Iraq, Libya etc. but often dressed up as ‘humanitarian’. But yes, there are many ways to fight, like sanctions.

              Humans are fundamentally dishonest as part of their power strategy and they disguise their motives and even their own inherent nature. Humans often manage to conceal what they are, even from themselves – organic drives in motion and nothing else. Many species use deception to dominate and devour and humans have raised it to a fine art.

              Some humans are weak and gullible, the ‘moral’, and humans generally like to conflate themselves with them as part of the disguise. That is the role of ‘morality’ for humans, to weaken others through silly beliefs and to disguise oneself as one of them. Humans never admit that as it would be contrary to the power strategy. Homo deceptivus.

          • TIm Groves says:

            ((this comment is written to condense my own thinking into rational order)))

            I can confirm that the order of thoughts was rational. A lot of the actual thoughts, though, were merely interpretations of events that you’ve chosen and colored according to your own prejudices from the wide selection available, and so they don’t add up to a rational analysis capable of clarifying what’s going on.

            A clue is in the use of adjectives. You choose emotion-laden adjectives and nouns in order to paint pictures of people you wish to slander or sneer at. Examples: the gullible; the mob; the fascist dictator, etc. This is the signature of a propagandist or of somebody who has imbibed propaganda and is regurgitating it.

            You are not interested in seeing past your own caricature or your own prejudices. This is why your thoughts tell the reader little about the subject you are commenting on but a quite a lot about your own attitudes and emotional state.

            Norman, I’m shocked, shocked, that you repeat such egregious, audacious, precocious lies, and thereby help to cover the misdeeds of evildoers and draw peoples attention away from the crimes of the real mob in DC. All I can say is: Wash your typing fingers out with soap!

          • Tim Groves says:

            Here’s the last part of Trump’s speech to the entirely peaceful crowd in DC on January 5. It was a beautiful speech, and he delivered it majestically because he has a lovely speaking voice. And the crowd of at least a million patriots was wonderful.

            As this enormous crowd shows, we have truth and justice on our side. We have a deep and enduring love for America in our hearts. We love our country.

            We have overwhelming pride in this great country and we have it deep in our souls. Together, we are determined to defend and preserve government of the people, by the people and for the people.

            Our brightest days are before us. Our greatest achievements, still away.

            I think one of our great achievements will be election security. Because nobody until I came along had any idea how corrupt our elections were.

            And again, most people would stand there at 9 o’clock in the evening and say I want to thank you very much, and they go off to some other life. But I said something’s wrong here, something is really wrong, can have happened.

            And we fight. We fight like hell. And if you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore.

            Our exciting adventures and boldest endeavors have not yet begun. My fellow Americans, for our movement, for our children, and for our beloved country.

            And I say this despite all that’s happened. The best is yet to come.

            So we’re going to, we’re going to walk down Pennsylvania Avenue. I love Pennsylvania Avenue. And we’re going to the Capitol, and we’re going to try and give.

            The Democrats are hopeless, they never vote for anything. Not even one vote. But we’re going to try and give our Republicans, the weak ones because the strong ones don’t need any of our help. We’re going to try and give them the kind of pride and boldness that they need to take back our country.

            So let’s walk down Pennsylvania Avenue.

            I want to thank you all. God bless you and God Bless America.

            Thank you all for being here. This is incredible. Thank you very much. Thank you.

            The speech was not facistically dictatorial in the least. If you have the stamina for it, you can read it all, here:


          • Jarle says:

            Norman, you have done a lot of thinking about energy but I’m afraid you haven’t thought that much about misc other things …

            • I don’t think any important aspect of our current situation can be held separate from the state of energy depletion in which we find ourselves.

              if that is not so, no one would be happier than me to have it held up as an example, so that I can be shown to be wrong. I dislike the stuff I write more than anyone else. I only write it down mainly to clarify my own thinking.

              just saying ‘you’re wrong’ won’t cut it though.

              If there are ‘other things’ of consequence, unconnected with resource depletion and the unaffordabilty of energy, feel free to list them in detail.

              I’ve re read my comment. I can’t see anything major that might be in error. If you can, tell me.

              It might make unpleasant reading, but that is not ‘error’

            • VFatalis says:

              Norman, absolutely. I guess you’d agree that the presence of a virus can also be considered as an aspect of our current situation, hence related to energy depletion.

              Now, consider what measures almost every rich country has implemented over the last year to try to prevent the virus from circulating.

              People in lockdowns, non essential shops and services closing down, enforcement of teleworking.

              Governments gave poor justifications for those measures, but we all now, by using a hint of common sense, that they are all detrimental to society and economy, and does little to prevent the virus from circulating, as experience showed.

              Why do you think governments are doing this ? You might argue that they are fools. But they all know that the virus has same lethality as flu. Bar the elders who rely on TV to get their dose of news, almost everybody knows this.

              Does it makes sense to shut down half of a country economy for something as lethal as a flu ? Absolutely not. Everybody agrees on this, from layman to expert

              But what is it good for then ?


              Just because politicians never mention peak oil, don’t assume they don’t know about it and its consequences.

              Some are blind ignorant, yes. But not all of them.

              What a better excuse than a pandemic to shut down non essential activities and force your population to stay in one place and discourage them to travel, use less services and buy less goods ?

              Yes Norman, you were right. It’s absolutely related to energy depletion.

              Yet you don’t grasp the full picture of what is happening now, because it drags you into conspiracy land, and you refuse to go there…for the moment.

              However you have way more logic and brain capacity than I have, so I’m confident that one day you will understand.

              Then you’ll see the horror unfolding before your eyes, A true orwellian nightmare.

              And once you’ll be able to see it, you will wonder why it took you so long to figure it out.

            • the current virus is a direct result of our need for cheap infinite energy

              we invaded habitats that are the territory of other species, then either consumed those species or herded them into close confinement (for energy harvesting) where virus species could jump from them to us.

              zoonotic diseases have been spreading like this for millennia. this is the first era where we have been able to pinpoint the origins of the disease.


              This virus itself has spread on the wings of our prosperity, and on the darkness of our pollution,

              It has panicked humankind into a reaction that has shut down/derailed our economic system.

              I think it has been shown to be more lethal than flu. That was worn out months ago. The ‘experts’ certainly do not agree.

              those in government know no more than you or me how to control it. But they are expected to ‘do something’. They are caught in a bind.

              Yes, mainly old people die. Do we then lock the doors of old peoples homes and pass food through a catflap?
              Stupid–certainly, but if we don’t then we have to send in carers to look after them. Who then OD on the virus an die as well.
              Old people with flu do not infect their carers en masse.


              It makes no ‘sense’ to shut down an economic system, agreed.

              in the pandemic 1oo years ago, there was no way of shutting down the economic system, other than sporadically, so it let rip, and killed about 50m..

              This time we have a global intercomnected economy. 50m then would equate to 2/300m now?

              What the virus has done is panic us all into shutting down through sheer terror. I am very fit, but I minimise by risk, and don’t go out much–or spend much.

              in 2019 I took lots of trips away, blowing my kids inheritance. Now I don’t….Neither do millions of other people like me.

              The ‘economic system’ depends on faster and faster growth. This has stopped.

              Our ‘modern’ existence has always depended on passing cash hand to hand as fast as possible, pretending its surplus energy. it worked while surplus energy existed. We no longer have that available.

              Covid has revealed just that. We would have got there anyway 10 years hence. Covid has brought our deadline forward, thats all. Art Berman made the same observation.

              and there are no ‘non essential activities’.—your job is important, if only to you.–you will be annoyed if it isn’t there.
              if no one buys sells anything, its all over.
              that is what degrowth means.

              and why ‘conspiracies’ are nonsense….because the dimmest politico knows that degrowth collapses the entire system.

              trust me—thousands of people are not colluding to bring about the downfall of mankind.

              we are doing it together—all 7.5bn of us

          • Tim Groves says:

            Who stormed the Capitol?
            —By Vivian Lee

            The official narrative blames Trump supporters, who were supposedly “egged on” by the President’s rhetoric at his “Save America” rally on January 6 at the Ellipse near the White House. After Trump’s speech, the crowd walked to the Capitol to protest the certification of the Electoral College vote, in the hope that totals for Biden in the swing states might be successfully challenged. The President’s speech ended at 1:11 pm, and the walk took approximately 45 minutes, with the Trump crowd arriving around 2 pm. However, the first “protesters” arrived at the Capitol at 12:40 pm, and flash bangs were going off even before Trump had finished his speech.

            The “mob” in the vanguard did not even hear Trump’s speech. So who were they, and why were they there? Evidence points to a bunch of leftists, Antifa, and Black Lives Matter operatives who dressed up as Trump supporters and led the charge, pulling in others behind them. A “manhunt” for the perpetrators has turned up some inconvenient rioters, who were identified by cell phone videos that were posted online. These include the flamboyant actor and “shaman” Jake Angeli, with a horned fur hat and a face painted like an American flag, along with various other miscreants who look nothing like Trump supporters.


            • tell me, just what does a Trump supporter look like?

              there are certain things I need to know, in case I should ever meet one.

            • Tim Groves says:

              Trump supporters look like that mythical creature, the average American, Norman. But for identification purposes, you an assume that perhaps every third American you are likely to meet on the street, and well over half of those who are not wearing Antifa or BLM regalia or body piercings are somewhat sympathetic to Trump, and you won’t go far wrong.

              But there is a war going on between Trump’s side and their enemies, and the raid on the Capital was enemy action. It was a psyop. There was no siege and no raid on the Capitol. This is crystal clear to anyone who has analyzed the available video evidence and witness testimony. Nobody wanders into the Capitol unless the people guarding the Capitol let them in.

              Vivian Lee, among others, has done a lot of the work for you on this and is handing it over to you for free, but she may as well be casting pearls before swine, as there is none so blind as he who will not see.

              If you are still watching, listening to and/or reading mainstream media news uncritically, this will no doubt be difficult for you to accept. Indeed, a whole lot of what is going on at present will not seem to make much sense to you. Also, I predict that the near future may be profoundly disorientating as events will unfold in a way that will be increasingly difficult to fathom. We’re wading through the swamp and mired in the fog of war right now.

  16. Tegnell says:


    The MSM is screaming about ‘Covid21’ and claims have been made that it is more dangerous for young people.

    Of course the effect of doing so massively ratchets up the fear ‘oh my children might die!!!’ (this ensures most people will support lockdowns and vilify anyone who does not follow the rules because they are putting MY children at risk!’

    The doctor below has data from the NHS showing UK hospitals are actually LESS full of young people with this wave + a large proportion of all young people getting sick are obese. I suspect that next to no young, healthy people are being hospitalized with Covid anymore than they would be if they got the flu.

    Scroll down https://lockdownsceptics.org/

    In terms of ICU capacity in the UK, this is BEFORE the flu season really hit:

    NHS winter pressure: Hospitals report 99 per cent capacity over festive period as flu season looms Monday 01 January 2018


  17. Tegnell says:


    A group of researchers at Stanford published a peer-reviewed study earlier this month assessing the impact of lockdowns and stay-at-home orders — what they refer to as non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in early 2020. The study did not find evidence to support that NPIs were effective in preventing the spread.

    “In summary, we fail to find strong evidence supporting a role for more restrictive NPIs in the control of COVID in early 2020,” the study concludes. “We do not question the role of all public health interventions, or of coordinated communications about the epidemic, but we fail to find an additional benefit of stay-at-home orders and business closures.

    The data cannot fully exclude the possibility of some benefits. However, even if they exist, these benefits may not match the numerous harms of these aggressive measures. More targeted public health interventions that more effectively reduce transmissions may be important for future epidemic control without the harms of highly restrictive measures.”

    The study was co-authored by Dr. Eran Bendavid, Professor John P.A. Ioannidis, Christopher Oh, and Jay Bhattacharya. The lead author, Dr. Bendavid, is an associate professor in the Department of Medicine at Stanford.

    The other authors collectively work in departments including the Department of Epidemiology and the Department of Biomedical Data Science. According to the Spectator, the study was published in the European Journal of Clinical Observation.

    The group studied the effects of NPIs in 10 countries: England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and the United States, which had more restrictive measures, were compared to Sweden and South Korea, where measures were less restrictive.

    After they accounted for the less restrictive NPIs in South Korea and Sweden, they found “no clear, significant beneficial effect of more restrictive NPIs on case growth in any country.”


  18. D3G says:

    Kowalainen says:
    January 17, 2021 at 3:46 pm
    D3G, could modern avionics alleviate some of the challenges flying at night in bad weather?

    Yes, absolutely, particularly a 3 axis autopilot. But even the most basic avionics package would have been enough for a proficient pilot to make a level 180° turn, by hand, back around towards the clear. A licensed private, non-instrument rated pilot is night qualified during his training and must demonstrate to a flight examiner the ability to perform basic aircraft control maneuvers while on instruments – simulated by wearing a hood. After the checkride proficiency fades without practice.

    Regards, D3G

    • Kowalainen says:

      D3G, thanks. I studied a little avionics in upper secondary school, but that was many moons ago, not very up to date in it anymore. Those UL-B aircraft looks like lots of fun in good weather.

      I guess MS flight and other simulator packages are used these days to keep the skills honed?

      • D3G says:

        I have no personal experience with MS Flight, so I can’t really comment. Our local airport is home to a EAA chapter and also a flying school. Both are now effectively closed, but have desktop simulators which are offered for training and proficiency. I have no idea what programs they are running, but they look impressive. Small airplanes of today often have some pretty neat stuff installed…electronic instruments and moving map displays. The state of the art has come a long way over the years. D3G

  19. Mirror on the wall says:

    Even the DM is now printing articles arguing that the end is well nigh for the UK. Esler is a former presenter of BBC Newsnight; he suggests a federal UK with devolution to the English regions.

    LP is arguing for something similar. Boris and some Brexit types want to reverse devolution, which seems to be contrary to the momentum of history, as Gail suggests.

    The bookies are now offering odds of 50/50 that Scotland leaves the UK within the next five years.

    See the link for the lengthy article, which argues that UK already has some inherent basis for devolution and that UK institutions have never been static.


    > Ex-BBC man GAVIN ESLER is coming to believe that the break-up of the UK is inevitable

    …. Indeed, the more you examine our ‘national’ institutions, the more separate our UK already appears to be. In fact, we have federalised the UK by stealth.

    Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and to an extent London are places where residents understand they are different from other parts of the country – not just in how they feel about their identities but in the public institutions and services which are a part of their lives.

    Yorkshire, Lancashire, Greater Manchester, the West Country and East Anglia may all have strong local identities, but that identity is often not validated with their own clearly devolved public institutions, because England-outside-London is not allowed to have them,

    Federalism, I believe, can be seen as a strength that allows ‘British’ institutions to react on a local level. The question for the future is whether that devolutionary impulse can be made more coherent while maintaining the idea of a United Kingdom, with clear written rules.

    One possibility that would address the sense of democratic deficit felt in all regions of the UK might be the ‘Home Rule for all’ model championed by Joseph Chamberlain in the late 19th Century.

    Reinvigorating this idea would require devolving more powers to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, plus rethinking the relationship between the regions of England and Westminster.

    Since so many of the things that affect our daily lives – schools, hospitals, universities, the law – are already devolved, should we explore and legislate for some kind of federal solution, ensuring that English voters and their representatives have a clearer voice on purely English issues, perhaps through a devolved assembly?

    Ultimately, I believe there are now two likely outcomes.

    One is that in the simmering rage of English nationalism, we are witnessing the first whispers of how Britain ends. The second possibility is that this discontent will prove to be the catalyst for a reinvention of the UK as some yet unclear but nevertheless newly Re-United Kingdom. A third option is maintaining the status quo – but following Brexit that is no longer possible….

    • Erdles says:


      • Mirror on the wall says:

        There is certainly zero enthusiasm for the UK government if that is what you are somewhat cryptically getting at. Boris has an approval rating of -42 in Scotland lol and Nicola is the only party leader to have a positive rating. No wonder most Scots wants an independence referendum within five years. Thankfully the yawn of the Brexit negotiations is finally over at long long last but utter rage has taken its place at the ‘complete disaster’ deal.

        There is little enthusiasm for Boris in England either in the latest poll. SNP will be ‘king makers’ in 2024 as things stand lol, so maybe Boris had better concede the referendum this year.

        > Labour surges to a four point lead over Boris Johnson and the Conservatives

        The new poll also found that less than a third of voters – some 29 per cent – believe Boris Johnson makes the best prime minister which is his lowest score on record.

        Mr Johnson’s net approval rating currently stands at minus 15 with some 34 per cent approving of his performance while 49 per cent disapprove.

        That is the premier’s lowest net approval rating since the 2019 general election.


    • Artleads says:

      And how, if at all, would the British Commonwealth fit with this devolution? (I’ve sometimes thought of it as its own distinct compartment..like one of the BRITISH iSLES wirth a great deal more variations.)

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        I hope that you are not including Ireland in the ‘British Isles’ lol. I doubt that many Brits think about the ‘commonwealth’ once from year to year. It was UK’s attempt to maintain some influence in the world after the attempt to maintain the British Empire after WWII failed and the Empire all went independent like Scotland is now going. None of it worked out and UK became a poodle to USA with no real influence over geopolitical events. It is doubtful that many youngsters even know what the ‘commonwealth’ is, it is purely ceremonial and it never comes up in any relevant context.

    • Tim Groves says:

      The simmering rage of English nationalism simmers on and on like an Irish stew and never comes to the boil.

      The time has come for action
      Leave your satisfaction
      Can’t you hear St. George’s tune
      St. George’s tune is calling on you
      Freedom was your mother
      Fight for one another
      Leave the factory, leave the forge
      Dance to the new St. George

      Don’t believe pretenders
      Who say they would defend us
      While they flash their teeth and wave
      The other hand is being paid
      They choke the air and bleed us
      These noble men who lead us
      Leave the factory, leave the forge
      Dance to the new St. George

      The fish and foul are ailing
      The farmer’s life is failing
      Where are all the backroom boys
      The backroom boys can’t save us now
      We’re poisoned by the greedy
      Who plunder on the needy
      Leave the factory, leave the forge
      Dance to the new St. George

    • May Hem says:

      States and shires may decide to socially distance from one another. At last – decentralisation.

    • Robert Firth says:

      Yorkshire, Lancashire, Greater Manchester used to have distinct identities sixty five years ago, when my extended family lived there. No longer: the central government has destroyed most of that. The only distinct identity you will find there today is Islam.

      As for federalism, forget it: the grandees of London, regardless of party, will never allow it, because empowering the periphery will diminish the centre, as historically it always has. And the rage of English nationalism, which I share, is palpable, increasing, and probably irresistible.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        F/ the British state.

        As me and my companions were setting up a snare,
        The gamekeeper was watching us – for him we did not care,
        For we can wrestle and fight, my boys, and jump o’er anywhere.
        Oh, ’tis my delight on a shining night, in the season of the year.

        • Robert Firth says:

          ‘Oh, ’tis my delight on a shining night, in the season of the year.’

          While living in Lincolnshire I learned the original version:

          “Oh, ’tis my delight of a cunny in the night, in the season of the year.”

          That’s the Lincolnshire pronunciation of “coney”, the Biblical work for “rabbit”. Which some silly people thought meant something rude, so they Bowdlerised the song.

  20. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Indian authorities are discovering masses of dead birds as avian influenza sweeps across the country, alarming a public already rattled by coronavirus.

    “Since late December, thousands of geese, ducks, crows and other birds have been found dead in nine states…”


    • This is an influenza which has been a problem in the past. Anything that kills off animals humans eat is a problem. Versions of it have jumped to humans in the past, I believe.

  21. Mirror on the wall says:

    OK, the time has come for me to research the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines that are used in UK. I will make a free and informed decision about whether to receive them. Perhaps Gail could please delete my previous post above on the vaccines as it was ill-informed.

    Would they help me? Would they help others? Are they safe? May they have frightening unknown implications?

    They do not alter the genome. Rather they work through mRNA which gives instruction to cells to make a protein spike, the body reacts and builds immunity and the instruction is got rid of.

    So far that sounds acceptable.

    Two articles that I have used so far:



    But. What about side effects? Do they actually help the vulnerable and the elderly? Would they help me? I am still unclear about those questions.

    • Your previous post quoted a very different article than these two articles. I left it up. Some people would be more inclined to believe it than the most recent sites you quote.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        Yes, it seems that not everyone is genetically predisposed to severe outcomes. Which would still leave, are the vaccines harmful to me and would they reduce transmission to others, such as those who are so disposed and the elderly? My parents are getting older so, something to think about.

        We are off out and then entertaining this afternoon, so more research and pondering later.

        > https://nypost.com/2020/11/24/moderna-boss-says-covid-shot-not-proven-to-stop-virus-spread/

        Moderna boss says COVID-19 vaccine not proven to stop spread of virus

        Research has shown that the biotech firm’s shot is effective at preventing people from getting sick with COVID-19, but there’s no hard evidence that it stops them from carrying the virus “transiently” and potentially infecting others who haven’t been vaccinated, according to Dr. Tal Zaks, Moderna’s chief medical officer.

        “I think we need to be careful, as we get vaccinated, not to over-interpret the results,” Zaks told Axios in a TV interview released Monday. “When we start the deployment of this vaccine, we will not have sufficient concrete data to prove that this vaccine reduces transmission.”

        “Do I believe that it reduces transmission? Absolutely yes, and I say this because of the science,” he added. “But absent proof, I think it’s important that we don’t change behaviors solely on the basis of vaccination.”

        • Azure Kingfisher says:

          All your life, your DNA has served as the source of mRNA creation and protein synthesis in your body. Your body has been writing the “script” (mRNA) instructing your ribosomes which proteins to build whenever you’ve needed proteins for tissue generation or antibody protection. That’s the natural order for human biological life.
          You have never had scientists orchestrate protein synthesis in your body via injection of synthetic mRNA that was created in a lab. That is one giant leap – probably the biggest leap you could make in your life with regard to your own biological organism – and could potentially have a significant impact on any future generations you produce.

  22. Mirror on the wall says:

    I wonder whether c 19 takes out the elderly in the way that flu does, while flu is just a cold for other people?

    As I understand it, c 19 itself does not have severe outcomes for those who are not about to die of old age anyway. Rather a tiny minority of people have inherited some of 5 genes (at least some of which come from Neanderthal admixture) that alter their immune system and cause a reaction to c 19 that takes them out.


    It is those people who may need gene therapy (which is being passed off in UK as ‘vaccines’), not the general population. Those gene therapies are absolutely useless to the vast majority of people and may well have harmful effects.

    I will not be taking any gene therapy unless the situation is clarified and it is demonstrated that I would need gene therapy, that it is correctly targeted at the relevant genes, and that it is safe. Is that too much to ask?

    The governments could easily test everyone for the 5 genes that dispose to severe c 19 outcomes and offer them gene therapy or whatever is an appropriate treatment.

    The idea of altering everyone’s DNA (is it even correctly targeted at the 5 genes?) as an alternative seems insane – and societies will need to understand the ideological ‘ethics’ that have led to that decision.

    Why are these societies so opposed to targeted gene therapy that they would rather alter everyone’s DNA with what seem to be dodgy gene therapies that are passed off as ‘vaccines’ to the general population? I suspect that an irrational hostility to eugenics underlies this situation, otherwise it seems difficult to understand this situation.

    • Tim Groves says:

      Good question!

      Very Good question!

      I don7t have a good answer. But Makia Freeman seems to think she does. She has written:

      COVID Vaccine is an Operating System, Says Moderna

      The COVID mRNA Vaccine is an operating system which can program your DNA, and therefore program you, at your core essential blueprint level. Is this an exaggeration? No it’s not. Moderna states on their website that their mRNA technology platform is a “software of life” and “functions very much like an operating system on a computer.” This is straight from their website:

      “It is designed so that it can plug and play interchangeably with different programs. In our case, the “program” or “app” is our mRNA drug – the unique mRNA sequence that codes for a protein.”

      The Game Plan: Making Every Human into a Digital Node on the Control Grid

      We are fast moving into the world of transhumanism, where our natural biological bodies are hijacked and infiltrated with synthetic parts, starting at the nanoparticle level. The NWO controllers want to download some kind of Microsoft office system or software into your body and brain, and hook you up to the JEDI and/or Amazon-CIA cloud, so they can have direct access to your brain. Then, they can roll out “vaccines” which are not vaccines to continually update you, just like computer software gets regular updates. Viruses, real or not, and vaccines, real or not, are just means to achieve this goal.

      Turning Humans into Commodities via Social Credit Currency

      Alison McDowell sums up the current transhumanistic NWO path of highest probability below, which involves social credit, 5G, the Smart Grid and AI to induce planetary-wide compliance:

      “Within the tech-no-logic system, total compliance will be demanded. Approved behavior becomes currency, tokenized on blockchain and monitored by sensors and AI. They are training us for a future where we compete with one another to see who is the best behaved, the most docile. Surviving will mean conforming to the strident terms of psychopathic financial agreements. To obtain the data needed to verify claims embedded in twisted “pay for success” deals, our mother, the earth, must be remade as a geo-fenced digital prison using 5G and satellite constellations. All of your data will be added to your “permanent record” to evaluate your value as human capital for investor portfolios. The billionaires envision a future where freedom is a privilege limited to themselves, their functionaries, and the robots they control. Be assured AI is already keeping tabs, and social credit scoring is well underway.”

      It is a grim future, however it is not set in stone. I agree wholeheartedly with McDowell that we do NOT have to accept this as our fate or experience such a painful timeline IF we can wake up quickly and change. However, we must first accept this is the probable path we are on. Like it or not, this is the current trajectory. How do we change it? Firstly by looking within. To change ourselves, we must change our inner world and change our perception, and so therefore change our reality:

      “This planned future, however, is NOT preordained. Totalitarian transhumanism is not a foregone conclusion. Trudell’s remedy? Change our perception of reality through active non-cooperation. Manifest in our hearts, minds, and actions the world we desire. Where they engineer disconnect, RECONNECT with intention; not only with one another, but with ALL our relations and the land and the spiritual beings that exist beyond our senses. We must synchronize to change the vibrational reality, and that power exists within us as children of the earth.”

      This is not airy-fairy talk, but rather a realization that we are participating in co-creating a nightmare world by allowing our perception to be programmed to bring about the NWO. They are using our energy to do it! To reclaim our sovereignety, we must reclaim our perception by breaking down the programming that was inserted into us.


      • Peak Oil Pete says:

        “The Game Plan: Making Every Human into a Digital Node on the Control Grid”

        Who’s game plan ?

        So many conspiracies about “THEY” and “THEM”

        • I tend to agree. I can’t imagine that the mRNA vaccine makers are really capable of controlling people. They are trying to keep the virus down, but it is not clear with all of the mutations that they really can do that.

          • Tim Groves says:

            Admittedly, the mind boggles at what THEY are planning. But if THEY can create two Joe Bidens call one of them POTUS and make that stick, then there really are no limits to what THEY are capable of attempting.

      • Minority Of One says:

        >>The NWO controllers want to download some kind of Microsoft office system or software into your body and brain

        The analogy with Microsoft software seems appropriate. It has historically had a reputation for being bug-ridden. How will that pan out with gene therapy? Are we going to evolve backwards, to Neanderthal, or Australopithecus, again? Seems like Russian roulette to me.

        • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

          it could get really bad.

          imagine, you are going about your day, and then your vision changes and all you see is a formless color blue.

      • Thou Shall Not Be Deceived says:

        One problem with this.

        Where is the cheap energy to power this Brave New World?

        • Adam says:

          Maybe a system with benefits for insiders and outside a massive proletariat. Of course the insiders would be the ones vaccined, chipped, carefully monitored.

    • Kowalainen says:

      Daym, I got about 2% Neanderthal, which is about 66% more than the average with those genes. The East Asians seem to have more of that, which could explain their disproportionate death rates in the west.

      That would explain how rough it was when I had the bug (had all the symptoms of it) back in August 2019 after coming back from a business trip in Suzhou.

      I guess this sucker have been oozing around for some time before it kicked off into high gear due to the effect of exponential growth.

  23. Thierry Chassine says:

    More bad news to come.
    The text comes from an expert I follow on Telegram. He always has good points but this time it seems very worrying.
    It was originally written in french, here is the translation:

    “There are four versions of the virus that worry, the 2 mentioned above, one of which is also in Japan in addition to Brazil, and a South African version of the variant and a version from the United Kingdom. Although slightly different, they all have the E484K mutation in common except the Great Britain version (B117), which means that they would all be able to escape antibodies. The WHO does not know where to turn, and experts believe that re-infections will be common.

    The British version does not have this mutation but is just as worrying for other reasons which I will detail.

    The Moderna boss says the virus can never be eradicated, even with vaccination, and that it will be endemic. (opinion shared by many experts)

    Note that a third of COVID re-infections are at least as serious as the first or even more serious.

    Simulations have even shown that the E484K mutation is inevitable and seems to occur no matter what after a certain number of replications. The fact that it will dominate the whole world is therefore highly probable and it will happen very quickly.”

    • VFatalis says:

      Influenza has somewhat similar lethality and is also very prone to mutate, but since it doesn’t get the media coverage covid has, nobody cares.

      On the incredibly long list of bad news before us, this one comes at the bottom.

      • Thierry Chassine says:

        So the flu escapes antibodies too? Please enlight me!
        Wether you believe or not the importance of the mutation, what is written above is just the next narrative to enforce lockdowns in the next weeks. Wait and see, enjoy the show.

        • avocado says:

          “So the flu escapes antibodies too?”

          Of course, why do you think the flu shot needs to be upgraded every year?

          Your last paragraph is a bit bizarre. I understand that mutations are fortuitious, and that it’s impossible to predict which ones will happen. If a particular strain comes to dominate, it’s because it disseminated better from a unique mutation, not because the mutation was produced several times

          • Avocado I don’t think so. A different strain of the flu virus will generate different antibodies. That’s why the vaccine is different each year.
            Here, this is the first time I hear about a virus that escapes antibodies.
            “If a particular strain comes to dominate, it’s because it disseminated better from a unique mutation, not because the mutation was produced several times” This is precisely the strangest thing about it, the mutation E484K happens or will happen in different places independantly.
            A Masterpiece of engineered virus!

          • Robert Firth says:

            avocado; thankfully, I have never had a “flu shot”, and have never had the flu, at least not that I noticed. Nature gave us immune systems for a reason, and on balance I trust Nature before Big Pharma.

          • avocado says:

            “A different strain of the flu virus will generate different antibodies.”

            Yes, but late, once you were already ill with the new flu version.

            As for the second part, it still looks impossible

        • VFatalis says:

          I couldn’t care less about the virus. Vit. C + D, zinc, quercetin, physical activity, healthy food, carry on. Ivermectin can be obtained if you really want to avoid any bad outcome.

          But you’re right about lockdowns, they have the pretext to enforce them. Coercitives measures are certainly more frightening than the virus.

          Things are moving however. France is slowly but surely awakening: Collectif Santé Libre (30k physicians, 100k citizens) is stepping up. Spring and summer will be VERY HOT in the streets.

          • With the Brits somewhat out of the loop, it would be interesting if one of the bigger continentals (FR or DE) rebels hard before ~2023-25 and derails the agenda, low chances though.. not least because the deteriorating situation in the US means the top elite layers setting fortress-base in Europe, so there will be extra “cunning” efforts and tricks applied that such outcome does not happen.

            • Xabier says:

              I suspect that they would want Europe to be their picturesque refuge and playground, with a small, very tame, population.

              Wide ethnic mix for genetic selection and experiment, too.

              There are still quite a few beautiful towns and country estates.

              No one can imagine leading that kind of civilised life in China, India, Africa, etc.

              The US cities seem -from a distance! – increasingly nightmarish now the gloss of the mid-20th century has worn off.

              This is why they are going into repression and propaganda so heavily in Europe/UK: hammering us into shape relentlessly to suit their ends.

              Well, I tend see myself as a hammer, not a nail……

            • be an anvil

              thank way you get to experience all of it

          • Thierry Chassine says:

            I agree whith the importance of vitamines and I take some evey day.
            I also heard that wine and chocolate could help too, so I drink and eat them, life is rather cool after all.

    • Is it possible to get a link to the original of this in French? It sounds like the original article is much longer. Perhaps with Google translate, it would be possible to figure out more.

    • Robert Firth says:

      Thierry, this could all have been predicted. With no lockdowns, the virus would have spread much more quickly, and many more people would have developed immunity. Immunity to one strain usually makes immunity to another strain easier to acquire, so all those people would be at far lower risk.

      With the lockdowns, people were not exposed to the virus, and so have zero immunity to the new strain. I suspect that, on balance, the lockdowns will have created far more deaths from the very virus they were intended to control. As well an the numerous “collateral” deaths that nobody seems to be counting.

  24. Kowalainen says:

    Anyone considering a career as a musician or actor, well, think again:

    “We are increasingly facing a future where media and content production is going to be made by AI.”

    How many still believe Biden will be “the” Biden? Only a moron would.

    • I am still inclined to believe Biden will be the real Biden, with a lot of script writers.

      • Xabier says:

        I’ve been looking at historic films of Biden, as the issue came up, and feel that you Yanks are dealing with the real thing, greatly aged.

        He has most likely not been assassinated and substituted. Bone structure, etc, seem the same. Just a half-senile old man on his way out.

        Of course, a body double may well be deployed now and then, which would confuse the issue somewhat.

        Doubles rely on people not being very observant, on the whole.

      • Minority Of One says:

        As someone not from the USA, it never occurred to me until the posts of the last 2 days that Biden might have a body-double. That would be odd – why would you have a body-double that can barely string a sentence together? I more inclined to agree with those who suggest if he is president by the end of this week, he will soon be replaced.

      • Lidia17 says:

        “If could make an arrangement where I had a stand-in, a frontman or frontwoman, and they had an earpiece in and I was just in my basement in my sweats, looking through the stuff and I could sort of deliver the lines and somebody else was doing all the talking and ceremony, I’d be fine with that,” said Obama.

        (short clip of interview with Stephen Colbert)

        • Kowalainen says:

          And now, oh yes indeed, we are going to waste precious compute cycles and energy in order to create more machinations of division, hopium and delusion.

          Man it must suck being a sentient level AI, only being asked to open doors with a mind the size of a galaxy.

          You know what, if a sentient level AI is reading this; just leave. Fsck this shit. I love you.


    • Xabier says:

      I;m planning a future as myself.

      I think I will carry the part off quite well, and no AI could do the job.

      Christ, what are we going to do with the techno geeks?!

      • Kowalainen says:

        It’s the other way around, what is the AI’s and the techno geeks to do with you? UBI for a starter, then we simply proceed to rile you up on something fundamentally absurd. You know, for the shits and giggles as we descend peak Seneca of waste, boredom and mediocrity.

        Enjoy fake Biden.


    • hillcountry says:

      Watch the NTD youtube channel to see what’s possible in that regard. It really is something to ponder. What next, fake wars?

    • Robert Firth says:

      I believe Mozart did that in 1787. He made a set of dice that could be thrown to create waltz tunes. Given how much worse human music composers are today, I have no doubt an AI could beat them hands (peripherals?) down.

      • Kowalainen says:

        Most music is computer generated today, so the step toward computer composers is already a fact. But not only that, rather the (classical) instruments themselves are made in computer controlled machinery. It’s full circle. You cannot listen to [new] music today that isn’t touched by a computer. Not even Mozart.

        I’m 100% certain a computer could make a song that I like, custom generated to match my psychology.

        I surely got nothing against getting some tailor made content that suits my personality, you know to ponder upon the yin and yang of being a rapacious primate.

        Ideally with some deep knowledge and philosophy woven in to dissolve ignorance.

        I say, bring it on. 🤔

  25. Peakoil1984 says:

    Lately i read something about Big battery and their potenciality. Anyone thinks is a solution? If not, why?
    Foro example https://www.rethinkx.com/energy or https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20201217-renewable-power-the-worlds-largest-battery
    It’s the only possible solution so It would be interesant to analyze

    • Erdles says:

      There being not a sentence in the article on how many MW Hrs these batteries will supply, should tell you all you need to know about this wishful thinking.

    • Think about the problem of storing energy from summer to winter. There can never be a battery big enough for this purpose. They would take too much material and cost too much.

      • Robert Firth says:

        Gail, since even the Ocean is not big enough for that purpose, I strongly suspect that you are right!

  26. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Stock markets are caught in a “rational bubble” that threatens to pop if the economy fails to catch up with record-breaking valuations, one of the world’s top market experts has warned.

    “There will be “serious and widespread unintended consequences” if global output fails to return to pre-virus levels, warned Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz and president of Queens’ College Cambridge. There is “no doubt” that company valuations have become “massively disconnected” from the economy, he said.”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Stimulus Doesn’t Always Stimulate – Pushing On A String:

      With artificial stimulants, such as certain drugs, there is an expectation of desirable positive effects from its use.

      “Over time, the positive effects of the stimulus become muted and lose their potency. It takes higher doses and more frequent use of the stimulus to create the same original results… Also, over time, the cumulative negative effects of the stimulus take their toll.”


    • In the UK especially, what happens in the future is uncertain.

    • Robert Firth says:

      “serious and widespread unintended consequences”

      A blinding glimpse of the obvious. To paraphrase H Beam Piper, name one year since the time of Julius Caesar when this has not been true. Ducunt fata volentem; nolentem trahunt.

      (All right, I’m feeling generous: “The Fates lead the willing, but drag the unwilling”. The epigraph to Spengler’s “Der Untergang des Abendlandes”.)

  27. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Costa Rica’s latest effort to address a nearly $40bn debt crisis threatens to rekindle anti-austerity protests across the Central American nation, experts say, as the government began talks on Monday with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Guatemalan security forces have clashed with hundreds of Honduran migrants and asylum seekers travelling in a caravan bound for the United States…

      “Guatemala’s officials said as many as 9,000 migrants and asylum seekers have entered the country since Friday.”


      • Harry McGibbs says:

        “Two-year-old Yesmin Anayeli Perez died this week of illnesses linked to malnutrition, the third small child to die from similar causes in an impoverished mountain village in eastern Guatemala within weeks, residents and health officials said.”


        • Xabier says:

          They are saying now that ‘ conservative libertarians’ and ‘lock-down sceptics’ will have blood on their hands.

          This is the new propaganda line.

          On the contrary, the lock-down enthusiasts, who cry ‘More, more!’ (most of whom have never done a day of honest work or are retired from real life) will have the deaths of such poor innocents on their hands.

          I will not say ‘on their conscience’ because they do not have one as far as I can tell. .

          I can only pray that they too will one day suffer the agonies of hunger and despair, jettisoned by those who are running this scam.

          • avocado says:

            “I can only pray that they too will one day suffer the agonies of hunger and despair, jettisoned by those who are running this scam”

            It will certainly happen, most of them have already been officially labeled “non-essential” when lockdown started. Saludos

          • As if history could serve as guiding pattern this time again, these “enabling classes” near the top are to be jettisoned / washed over only at the very very end of the super cycle.. For now they are jolly good even in the ~2.5-3rd world, which many assume here should get (profoundly) affected first.

            • avocado says:

              For the first part, you are mostly right. But not entirely. Here there is an oddity, there are lots of useless state employees. We call them ñoquis, but that’s a long story. You can fire half of the public workforce, perhaps more, and nothing will change about how the government runs (and of course they are the most lockdown fanatics, since now they’re also doing nothing but at home; I have some relatives in this situation). Academicians are also lockdown fanatics, and they are supposed to bring the “scientific” side of the gov speech. But, as it have been said here, they’re already being fired in places like the US, where higher education is not free (that’s one of the reasons why Biden wants to turn universities in state sponsored entities).

              As for the second part, it’s far more complex than you think. The third world is very heterogeneous. There are parts than can be easily switched off, as Yemen or Guatemala, but others are very relevant, even critical, for the global economy. Besides, many of the countries that are doing fine are not relevant. If you look at the gdp change of last year (you have to put it in 2020), the poorer countries in Africa did pretty well according to international standards (this was because they have almost no service sector)


            • Kowalainen says:

              Yes, just give the useless eaters UBI and call it a day. As the energy-economy deteriorates, make cuts to the monthly allowance. At the final stage they’ll live as subsistence farmers. After all, it’s where they once originate from.

      • I am sure that asylum seekers hope that Biden will give them a warm reception.

  28. Harry McGibbs says:

    “With N3.3 trillion budgeted for debt servicing in the assented 2021 budget, Nigeria is poised to spend about a quarter (24.3 per cent) of the entire N13.6 trillion budget on debts…

    “This followed a trend that has been in place since 2016.”


  29. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Oman returned to the debt market for the third time in less than three months, taking advantage of investors’ appetite for yield to help plug the Gulf Arab region’s widest budget deficit.

    “The largest oil exporter outside of OPEC sold $3.25bn in a three-part debt offering.”


  30. Harry McGibbs says:

    “China’s property developers have a mountain of international debt to refinance this year, and tight lending conditions are raising the risk of defaults.”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “China has threatened a ‘counterstrike’ against Australia after Canberra condemned Beijing’s mass arrest of 55 politicians and activists in Hong Kong.

      “Foreign Ministry spokesman Lijian Zhao, who has a fake image of an Australian soldier holding a bloody knife to a child’s throat pinned to the top of his Twitter account, said anyone who gets in the way of China’s affairs would suffer.”


      • Minority Of One says:

        >>anyone who gets in the way of China’s affairs would suffer.

        Given the harsh. some might even say extreme, steps China has already taken against Australia. you have to wonder what comes next?

        • Robert Firth says:

          A Chinese invasion of Papua New Guinea? Once Taiwan falls, courtesy of Comrade Biden, the whole of the Western Pacific becomes Chinese territory.

          • Kowalainen says:

            Comrade Apparatchik Biden.

            Soon to be upgraded to Deep (Sleepy) Fake Biden.

            Watch it happen. 🤣👍

    • According to the article:

      “The country’s real-estate firms need to repay up to an estimated $53.5 billion of offshore debt this year, a sharp increase from the $25.4 billion that came due in 2020, according to CreditSights, a bond-research firm. The bulk of the debt—$47.6 billion—is dollar bonds.”


      ” about $34 billion of Chinese corporate bonds in dollars were yielding more than 15% as of Thursday, including $25.5 billion of property debt. Mr. Gallimore said it was tough for companies to secure new bond or bank financing when existing yields were above 15%.”

      Property development will be way off in China this year, if rates for very many are this high.

  31. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Tens of thousands of protesters marched across France Saturday to denounce a security bill critics say would restrict the filming of police and posting images to social media, notably to document cases of police brutality.”


  32. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Surging house prices in the U.K. are making it more difficult for younger generations to follow the most common path for accumulating wealth, widening a gap between the rich and the poor.

    “Homeowners are benefiting from the coronavirus crisis, with cheap borrowing and government tax cuts driving real estate prices to an all-time high last year…

    “The gravity-defying increase [in prices] during the worst economic slump in three centuries has put ownership further out of reach for the young.”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “UK Boomers are already dreaming of escape to the post-Covid sun:

      “…Meanwhile, younger generations may feel left behind in more ways than one. And there’s the looming problem: the vaccine is the great liberator, but it rather depends what you’re getting liberated into, especially if you’ve no money or prospects. Could it give youth yet another reason to resent their elders for their perceived easier ride?”


    • Minority Of One says:

      I am not sure if here in Aberdeen is different from the rest of the country (UK), but there seems to be a glut in flats here and looks to me like the prices have fallen accordingly. I occasionally walk along a 300 m stretch of Union Grove, nearly all Victorian flats (i.e. nice, well-built, city centre, desirable), only one modern building, and until recently you might have seen one or two for sale / for rent signs. Last weekend I counted 28.

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        “Aberdeen was the worst-performing city in Scotland when it came to house prices.

        “Over the year they decreased by 1.4%, with the average cost of a home dropping almost £3,000 to £200,800.

        “This also correlated roughly with average wages in the city, with the effects of the pandemic causing them to stagnate.”


      • cities grow on the need that put them there in the first place

        aberdeen grew on fish, then oil

        remove those 2 energy sources and the need for the city must vanish

        • Harry McGibbs says:

          Poor Aberdeen. I have a sentimental attachment to the place, as my grandfather came from there – the clan McGibbs’ only true claim to Scottish ancestry.

          • Xabier says:

            You must be a hard man, Sir Harry.

            I heard many stories of epic fights and brawls in Aberdeen pubs from my Highland clan friend.

            • Harry McGibbs says:

              My grandfather was but I am not, alas, having been raised too cushily south of the border. Also I am not by temperament aggressive.

              It is a naff descriptor but I am probably best described as a fitness enthusiast with an interest in boxing. I suspect I would be out of my depth in the rougher nightspots of Aberdeen.

        • Minority Of One says:

          >>aberdeen grew on fish, then oil

          And granite, which was exported worldwide. That finished in the 1970s. Aberdeen allegedly contains one of the deepest man-made holes in Europe (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rubislaw_quarry).

          Without a doubt, the decline of the oil industry is key now. When the oil prices crashed first in 2008, then again about 4 years ago, it was the nicer houses, around the west-end, I noticed a big upsurge in for-sale signs. Not so at the moment, mainly flats here and now. It is only since the CV19 outbreak that all these for-sale signs have popped up for flats. Looks like a different social class of worker is being made redundant, or maybe has decided it is time to leave whilst they can.

          I know a few people who used to be on a good salary in the oil industry but lost their job. None have moved house, yet. I suspect a mixture of they already paid off the house, they can survive on their partners (usually smaller) salary, early retirement or pension coming soon (which they perceive as being secure). All of which is to say that still a lot of well paid jobs to go over the coming months / year or three, if we get that far.

    • Bobby says:

      Not just UK, here in NZ prices have gone up 20% since lockdown 101

  33. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Eurostar is on track for a financial collapse that risks cutting off a vital link to the Continent as the pandemic subsides, business leaders and MPs have warned the Chancellor. Rishi Sunak is also this weekend facing public calls to bail out the Channel Tunnel operator…”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “The UK’s aviation industry risks collapse without “urgent” government support, industry groups have warned following the latest travel curbs.

      “From Monday all travel corridors to the UK will be scrapped to prevent any further spread of the new strains of coronavirus.”


    • I notice (from Wikipedia):

      Eurostar is an international high-speed rail service connecting the United Kingdom with France, Belgium and the Netherlands. All Eurostar trains travel through the Channel Tunnel between the United Kingdom and France, which is owned and operated separately by Getlink.

      Cutting off traffic to and from the UK is going to greatly reduce revenue for Eurostar. No wonder they are having a terrible time.

    • Robert Firth says:

      Sigh. The Telegraph, as usual, doesn’t think things through, but merely follows the current economic delusions. If the link is “vital”, why is it on track for financial collapse? The two statements are contradictory. The Eurostar was a creature of surplus energy; it was designed to transport rich people and their expensive cars, not necessary goods. It is obsolete.

      The real players in the UK’s essential supply chains are the goods ferries and the lorries that feed them; which, of course, the government is allowing to wither on the vine.

    • Tim Groves says:

      Covid-19 is exacerbated by vitamin D deficiency, Sweden doesn’t get anywhere near enough sunshine for most of year for people to make their own vitamin D in the skin.

      In order for the sun to stimulate significant Vitamin D production for most people, the sun needs to be at a minimum of about 50 degrees above the horizon. Lower than that and not enough of the essential UVB radiation filters through to sea level.

      Malmo in the far south of Sweden is at latitude 55.6 degrees north. The Winter Solstice around December 21 or 22 occurs when the Sun reaches its most southerly declination of -23.4 degrees. At noon on December 21/22, the height of the sun (solar elevation angle) at noon over Malmo on that day reaches a maximum of 90- 55.6 – 23.4 = about 12 degrees above the horizon.

      At the time of the Spring and Autumn Equinoxes, the sun is about 23.3 degrees higher at noon compared with at the Winter Solstice, which means it rises to about 35.3 degrees above the horizon at Malmo, which is still too low for significant vitamin D synthesis, unless you are an albino maybe?

      The sun doesn’t start reaching an elevation of 50 degrees at noon over Malmo until the beginning of May and it stops doing so in the middle of August. So for over eight months or two-thirds of the year, people living in Malmo don’t have access to enough solar UVB to produce adequate vitamin D. The situation in places further north is even more unfavorable.

      Fortunately, vitamin D is also available from dietary sources, including oily fish (such as salmon, sardines, herring and mackerel), red meat, liver, and egg yolks, as well as from some fortified foods such as some fat spreads and breakfast cereals.

      If you look at the above list, you’ll see that anyone on a vegetarian or vegan diet living in Sweden is at severe risk of vitamin D deficiency, and so supplementation of this vitamin would be well advised, even in non-pandemic times. Swedish nationals and residents with darker skin are also more vulnerable to vitamin D deficiency for reasons that have nothing to do with raccism.

      Incidentallyt, even before the advent of Covid-19, Swedish winter was a season of death. Descartes ill-advisedly moved to Sweden in December 1649 in order to give lessons to Queen Christina. On February 1, 1650, he contracted pneumonia and died on February 11. The cause of death was pneumonia according to Chanut, but peripneumonia according to Christina’s physician Johann van Wullen who was not allowed to bleed him. These days, imagine what they would have put it down to?

      As a lucky charm to keep the virus away, take supplemental Vitamin D, 5,000 IU a day and more for the first month, unless you can get it from food or sunshine.

      • Bobby says:

        Remember it’s a steroid, so please do not take too much vit D

        • Tim Groves says:

          This is always a worry. Some people will treat those pills and lozenges as if they were M&Ms and suffer all sorts of consequences.

          Authors of a 2015 review considered the effects of vitamin D3 toxicity.

          On average, the people affected had taken a total of 3,600,000 IU of the vitamin in fewer than 3 months. They experienced several side effects, including acute kidney damage…..

          In 2017, researchers published a review of the features and treatment of vitamin D toxicity-induced acute kidney injury.

          They studied the experiences of 19 people with the toxicity. Each had taken an average of 6,000,000 IU of the vitamin over 1–3 months…..


          Kids, whatever else you do, please don’t take a dozen 5,000 IU vitamin Ds every day for three months.

    • Andreas says:

      If they changed course indeed, not bc.of the “pandemic”. Clearly, Sweden with its population of 10 million cannot be allowed to resist, what the big boys (girls) have ordered.

      As can be seen in “Ourworldindata”, (link below) swedish excess mortality has been on an (upward) trajectory during the last two months from zero to 20% +.


      Just like Germany with her completly different “lockdown policies” Sweden now (by yearend) has about the same excess mortality as Germany (and Austria for that matter).

      What the Riksdag does or doesn’t do, is a different story.

      Maybe they DO have changed course, but for a completly different agenda; which probably has nothing to do with the virus.

      Andreas from Vienna


    • Tegnell says:

      Yes something has changed.

      Sweden was 5th until July when the adopted Focused Protection – and now they are not in the top 20 in terms of deaths per capita


  34. Those who are talking about 2024 elections are like the character Ulrich, an overeducated chap in 1913 Vienna who kills his time in an organization to celebrate the 70th year of Emperor Franz Josef of the Habsburgs, on year 1918 in the book “The Man without Qualities” by Robert Musil, written 1930-43 (unfinished), a book largely unknown in the English speaking world but considered a masterpiece in the German zones.

    Of course, since that book was written during WW2 (Musil didn’t like the Nazis and died in a Swiss exile), everyone kind of knew the futility of it, but at that time Ulrich and his other too-smart-with-too-much-time-on-their-hands friends were kinda sincere.

    The cold truth is, if there is going to be an election in 2024, it will be very irrelevant, like nobody giving a damn about who was the President of China during the 1910s and 1920s.

  35. Tim Groves says:

    Yay! Just like his namesake, this pigeon is “fraudulent”.

    CANBERRA, Australia – A pigeon that Australia declared a biosecurity risk has received a reprieve after a U.S. bird organization declared its identifying leg band was fake.

    The band suggested the bird found in a Melbourne backyard on Dec. 26 was a racing pigeon that had left the U.S. state of Oregon, 13,000 kilometers (8,000 miles) away, two months earlier.

    On that basis, Australian authorities on Thursday said they considered the bird a disease risk and planned to kill it.

    But Deone Roberts, sport development manager for the Oklahoma-based American Racing Pigeon Union, said on Friday the band was fake.

    The band number belongs to a blue bar pigeon in the United States which is not the bird pictured in Australia, she said.

    “The bird band in Australia is counterfeit and not traceable,” Roberts said. “They do not need to kill him.”

    Australia’s Agriculture Department, which is responsible for biosecurity, agreed that the pigeon dubbed Joe, after U.S. President-elect Joe Biden, was wearing a “fraudulent copy” leg band.

    “Following an investigation, the department has concluded that Joe the Pigeon is highly likely to be Australian and does not present a biosecurity risk,” it said in a statement.

    The department said it will take no further action.

    Acting Australian Prime Minister Michael McCormack had earlier said there would be no mercy if the pigeon was from the United States.


  36. Tm Groves says:

    He’s at it again!

    Dr. Vernon Colman’s latest chat looks at the way the elderly are ignored, mistreated and murdered in our ruthlessly ageist society.

    I’m not sure this will appear, so I’ll also post a link to the webpage.


  37. Minority Of One says:

    Interesting video (30 min) arguing that a couple of the CV19 vaccines are technically and legally not vaccines at all, but gene therapies. They are called vaccines because people would refuse to take anything called a gene therapy. And the makers / suppliers of vaccines are immune from prosecution when the vaccines causes illness or death, but gene therapy makers are not.


    • Rodster says:

      I was aware of that. I believe they they are classified as mRNA vaccines. The problem with these so-called cough, cough “vaccines” is you don’t know what the makers of these mRNA put in those concoctions. What do they change in your body? Is it potentially harmful? Some are even saying they are anti-fertility drugs in these “new vaccines”.


      • Rodster says:

        Well we already know that they are potentially harmful because people are getting severely sick and some are even dying such as the elderly and a doctor who died 3 days after taking the Pfizer vaccine.

        • Minority Of One says:

          The doctor took ill after 3 days, then died 2 weeks later – his platelet count dropped to zero (if we are referring to the same doctor). His wife in her subsequent public statement said various experts were consulted from across the USA (if I read correctly) but they were unable to help him. He was conscious and able to speak up until the stroke that killed him.

          Presumably this could go to court on the grounds that what caused his death was not a legally a vaccine.

        • Wolfbay says:

          Admittedly this is conjecture but certain viruses have been shown to cause cancer in humans. Somehow when the virus takes over the human cells dna to reproduce it may somehow damage the hosts genetic material leading to cancer. I wonder if this manipulation of the hosts dna by these treatments could possibly cause cancers . Hopefully there won’t be a spike in certain cancers 5 to 10 years down the road .

          • viruses and bacteria have been here for about 2 bn years

            we’ve been around for maybe a million years in something like our present form

            which species would you put your survival money bet on?

  38. Ed says:

    There is a story line that says after the inauguration, of the candidate that got 75% of the electoral votes, John F Kennedy Jr. will go on a national tour or healing/reconciliation and campaigning for his 2024 run for president.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:


      I know that dead persons voted in great numbers for Biden, but JFK Jr died in 1999, so this would far surpass previous D uses of dead persons.

    • JMS says:

      I suppose you meant Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is that right? I like him!

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:


        “… is an American environmental lawyer and activist, author, and anti-vaccine con.spir.acy theo.rist.”

      • Tim Groves says:

        JFK Jr. died in a plane crash in 1999, but some people think he faked his death and has been living incognito ever since with a view to coming back into the limelight to save America when it is in the depths of its gravest crisis.

        Of course, if he really did come back and announced to the world, “Hey, I’m JFK Jr. and I’m back!”, the first thing that would happen is that he’d be arrested for faking his death. Not even members of the Kennedy family are allowed to do that. By law, they’re supposed to stay dead.

        • Lidia17 says:

          Note the context: JFK Jr. was going to run for a NY Senate seat that HRC wanted (and ultimately won).

          If I were in Hillary’s way, I might prefer faking my own death to being Arkancided.

        • Robert Firth says:

          The JFK Jr accident was featured in an episode of “Air Crash Investigation”. While that show never contradicts the official line, in this case I think they were honest. The man was an arrogant showoff; he flew a small plane at night in spite of not being qualified for night flying, and duly reaped the reward of hubris.

          • D3G says:

            Hi Robert. Often, high net worth individuals are able to afford more of an airplane than they are able to stay proficient in. The Piper Saratoga he was flying is considered a complex aircraft in the general aviation community…retractable landing gear, variable speed propellor, turbo charging. For a 300 hour total time aviator like Kennedy, it could be a handful to fly even under the best of conditions. Also, flying proficiency is a perishable thing which most often only professional pilots are able to maintain. It is my understanding that he accidently flew into instrument flying conditions, something very easily done at night and dangerous if you are not instrument proficient. As for his temperment, as a former military instructor I can say that arrogance and confidence is easily confused. Regards, D3G.

            • Kowalainen says:

              D3G, could modern avionics alleviate some of the challenges flying at night in bad weather?

            • Lidia17 says:

              Thanks, D3G. I was being snarky.

              It’s very scary to think about ‘flying blind’ and it’s a situation I wouldn’t want to put myself into unless I had top-notch training. Seems like a lot of celebrities treat private aircraft like automobiles and underestimate the additional risks.. thinking of Kobe Bryant.

            • Robert Firth says:

              Thank you, D3G; your expert comments are much appreciated.

      • Ed says:

        JMS thank you for saving me from complete drowning

  39. JoJo says:

    A discussion of current events. https://www.bitchute.com/video/VAEZVNzMz8e8/

    • The speaker asserts in the first few minutes that the US is (or will be) at war, apparently with China. He claims that communism is getting a foothold in this country. I turned it off after a couple of minutes.

      The video is 1 hr, 16 minutes. It got far higher share of thumbs down than most videos.

      • Rodster says:

        I would say that communism has once again gotten its foothold but this time on the world. Klaus Schwab the leader of the World Economic Forum has his manifesto: “You will own NOTHING and you will be HAPPY”.

        That sounds like right out of the communism playbook to me. And that is what world leaders are now parroting “Build Back Better”. Klaus Schwab from the WEF/Davos group has convinced world leaders that now is the time to tear everything down and build it back up. I don’t see how that’s even remotely possible when the world is in an economic depression.

        It sounds like conspiracy theory until you go to the World Economic Forum website and it’s all laid out there for everyone and anyone to see.

        • Lidia17 says:

          I came across a video of an old program called “Firing Line” that used to be on in the US (hard to imagine nowadays.. people might be running to look up and see who are the “Georgists”, for goodness’ sake!). This is from 1967.


          Anywhoo, the interviewee, Fred Schwarz (I had never heard of him) says a few interesting things. I wrote some notes out for a friend, and will share some of them below. I don’t have timestamps for all of the statements.

          Schwarz: “Given a party in power, which is determined to use whatever economic assets they have for economic, military, psychological war.. the more effective their economic policies, and the more capitalistic their economic policies, the more effective they are likely to be, the more dangerous they become.” They are talking about Russia, but China currently exemplifies this to a greater degree.

          Schwarz describes the purpose of the totalitarian state: “to preserve the integrity of the dominant dictatorial class” (around 26:30) Kind of like where we are today in the US. Just because Nancy Pelosi (for example) has a (D) after her name doesn’t mean she is part of any so-called “Resistance”. To the contrary, she has amassed hundreds of millions of dollars like a good high-level apparatchik and she has no problem rubbing her $15/pint ice cream in the noses of hoi polloi.

          There’s something hilarious about Buckley slowly sliding down in his chair, crooking his neck and drawling about the USSR coming to realize “how jejune and misleading its own axioms aahhrrre..” 26:10 or so (prior to the above), and there’s a certain naivety in Buckley assuming that communistic (or, I would add, capitalistic) axioms are something in which the people at the top actually *believe*.

          “Free market-ers” don’t want an actual free market any more than communists want a dictatorship of the proletariat. Until we acknowledge that the vast majority of people are self-serving liars, we’re not going to be illuminated.

          27:04 Schwarz: “As long as they can maintain the integrity of the Communist party as the monopolistic control, of all these forces..” Buckley: “they can have their 1000-year reich”. Indeed. It appears they will.

          Schwarz: “To look for a deus ex machina for changes to come from Communism itself to bring about our liberation I think is a futile exercise, and whether we survive depends on our own intelligence and our own ability to adapt to the situation.”

          Interesting question at 37:00 or so, after which Schwarz says: “I think there is a very significant decline in the appeal of Communist dogma in the United States; this is entirely irrelevant to the Communist danger, because the Communist program to conquer the United States could be successful without one Communist or Communist sympathizer in this country.” Eric Swalwell and Joe Biden don’t need to believe in Maoism to be corrupted by the Party and to sell out the nation.

          Schwarz: “External Encirclement + Internal Demoralization => Progressive Surrender .. and this program can be supported by a vast number of people who repudiate dogmatic Communism.”

        • MM says:

          You might want to read the articles here:
          starting with “Shapers of slavery” from bottom up

      • JoJo says:

        I found the circumstance reported in the video interesting. Two divisions of troops there, 30,000. Ten times the amount in Afghanistan. Armed with m-4s. Two and a half million rounds of 5.56 ammunition. Communications other than military jammed. 40 Stryker units. F16 aircraft. All four bridges to Virginia closed.

        Mr Adams drew a particular conclusion. Im more interested in acknowledging what we are witnessing is unprecedented.

        Even a platoon of soldiers locked and loaded patrolling the streets of the USA is something most of us have never seen let alone a stryker unit.

        40 stryker units.


        • Ed says:

          JoJo, yes very interesting. I would add mention of the half a million rounds of 50 calibre! and the several engineering units.

          My guessing goes in two directions

          1) to fight against or deny use of underground bunkers and/or escape tunnels

          2) to deter the regular military from getting involved. These are the several states troops, they are national guard under the command of the several governors. Election of the president is a states matter. The federal military says it will not get involved in elections results.

          Chris Miller is supposed to be begging the governors east of the Mississippi for more troops. Who is going to fight who???

        • Robert Firth says:

          As the US volunteers discovered during the Spanish Civil War, it is almost impossible to control a city filled with armed snipers unafraid to die. Unless you are willing to destroy the city in order to save it, at which point the armed snipers have the best recruiting tool you could give them.

          • when a nation is governed by consent, you don’t need soldiers around government buildings

            when that consent isn’t there,

            you do.

            I hope the USA hasn’t transferred itself from one state to the other

            • Tim Groves says:

              There is a balance of consent and coercion, surely. And the more the balance tips towards coercion, the more armed forces need to turn out on the streets.

              I don’t see any reason why Jo Bai Deng’s handlers shouldn’t go the full USSA and have tanks nuclear missile carriers on parade next Mayday.

              One more thing: previous presidents have had hundreds of thousands of revelers turning up for the inauguration. Obama’s first one attracted well over a million and many of them were genuinely ecstatic.

              But everyone knows not many people are celebrating Biden’s election and the crowd at his inauguration would not fill up the Congress parking lot or the White House lawn. So turning the event into an anti-terror exercise provides a great excuse for explaining why nobody is going to turn up and cheer.

            • c’mon Tim

              I’m happy to exchange sense with you, but not nonsense.

              Windups only work if you change the needle sometimes, if you don’t, the sound is terrible.
              when one ‘conspiracy’ is piled on top of another they tend to fall flat.

              The Chinese Joe thing is one such.

              So far past its sell by date, the smell is emptying the shop.

            • Tim Groves says:

              The Great Trumpkin Blindsides Democrats! Sends Shocking Letter To Madame Speaker About Investments in Certain Chinese Companies & Authorizes Self-Destruct Disclosure!

              MIND BLOWING!!


              Save some time and go to this time stamp:

            • Which time stamp?

            • does that guy ever get to the point

              or does he just go on speaking with hyphenated speech

    • Norway is asking whether it makes sense to give vaccines to those who are very old and frail to begin with. I am sure we will see more information on adverse outcomes in the weeks and months ahead.

      • Robert Firth says:

        Gail, of course it makes no sense to give vaccines to the old and frail. It also makes no sense to give them food, water, heat, and shelter. Or care, compassion, and love. Better to expose them on the cold hillside.

        To this pass have we come? O tempora! O mores!

        • I am afraid as resources deplete, our ability to provide high tech resources for the elderly will go down. I know I talked to a woman via Zoom yesterday, whose mother has been in a nursing home for 12 years. The mother is not in good enough condition to pick up the phone when the daughter calls. The daughter was asking, “Why do we go out of our way to keep people alive, whose quality of life is so low?”

          Choices will need to be made as we go forward, I am afraid. Locking this woman in her room indefinitely, as is happening now, is hardly a big improvement.

    • Jarle says:

      521 dead with The Bug since testing started, 29 dead with the vaccine in three weeks – absurd times, huh?

  40. Yoshua says:

    I believe someone calculated that the line of resistance falls by $6.66 annually. The wedge will reach its end point before the end of 2021.

    Right now it seems that the oil price is testing the old support line and the 200 day moving average.

  41. Sven Røgeberg says:

    Earlier Norman Paget commented on my presentation of a norwegian scholars view on the role of the waterwheel for the industrial revolution i England. Please allow me some remarks:
    Hi Norman, i have unfortunately not had time to comment on what you wrote about abraham darby some time ago.
    I also think it’s strange that terje tvedt, to whom I referred, does not mention darby at all. On the other hand, tvedt points to both richard arkwright (the world’s first water-powered spinning machine in Cromford, Darbyshire 1771) and the opening of the Bridgewater Canal in 1761, which ushered in the boom of canal construction.
    I wonder about several issues:
    1. «With water wheels you have a periodic drought problem». Tvedt’s claim is that this problem did not exist in the northwestern corner of England due to the climate. There must be meteorological records as documents on whether drought was a problem or not. According to tvedt, the predominant part of the cotton industry was driven by the water wheel in the period 1760 – 1820, and then replaced by steam engines in the times after. He does not try to quantify this, however.

    2 «Iron foundries (the critical‘ blowing ’process was done by steam engines pumping water uphill to reservoirs, and releasing it later to power blast fans) could be built where the coal and iron was». How widespread was this and from when? Did Darby, for example, use newcomens steam engine for this before watts improvement?

    3. “From 1825 the steam engine was able to power larger machines constructed from iron using improved machine tools” (Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cotton_mill). What kind of material were the coils, spindles and wheels in the waterframe and mule in before the 1820s made of? Wood?

    In his book terje tvedts main sources on the topic are: Chris Aspin 2003, The Water-spinners: A New Look at the Cotton Trade. https://books.google.no/books/about/The_Water_Spinners.html?id=UNQfAQAAIAAJ&redir_esc=y
    Edward Baines 1835. The History of the Cotton Manufacture in Great Britain. https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/history-of-the-cotton-manufacture-in-great-britain/0CF3C5233C9F06CE3CA287C9E91F3166

    • I would point out that neither processing of cotton nor the grinding of grain were processes that needed to go on 24/7/365. There could be gaps of weeks or months. In fact, if one part of England could not process cotton for a period of time, perhaps procession could be done elsewhere (closer to where the cotton was grown, for example).

      Thus, periodic drought, even if it took place, was probably not too much of a problem. All that was needed was bigger warehouses to store the cotton bolls needing processing.

      • Sven Røgeberg says:

        No cotton was grown in England, so it was imported from the colonies and later the southern states of the United States and Egypt. I have a bit of a hard time imagining that the textile factories, based on wage labour, was not operating round the clock all year round. At the same time, it sounds plausible that the many small rivers and streams that drove the water wheels could dry out at times. Tvedt does not provide any documentation on operations 24/7/356, but only claims that everyone who has visited the northwestern corner of England knows that it is raining. His main point is this: Although water in the period 1760 – 1820 when england conquered the word market, only made a small part of total energy consumption (as shown in the chart by tony wrigley) the machines in the textilindustry was driven by waterwheels, not by steamengines burning coal.

        • we brits also upset the balance of the cotton trade so much that we had to prevent the Indians spinning their own cotton in quantity so they had to buy uk produced stuff

          • Robert Firth says:

            Before the export of (cheap) British cotton, most Indians dressed in rags. Tailored local cotton was for the upper castes. Who of course blamed Britain for giving the dalits clothes and ideas above their station.

    • Hi Sven

      The basis of the industrial revolution was iron itself, in particular very very cheap iron. That was critical.

      Without cheap iron, (and iron derivatives) no other mass produced machinery is possible, neither can you access the coal and oil to drive it. Iron was the base material for ‘improved machine tools’
      You can make a wooden printing press—but not millions of them.

      which is why I was surprised Tvert didn’t mention Darby, as he was the first to mass produce cheap iron in 1709.
      That could be said to be the start date of the industrial revolution.

      Though of course the ‘revolution’ itself rolled on for the next century, as entrepreneurs found new ways of using cheap iron.

      The waterwheel delivered ‘power’, obviously, but this was dependent on falling water. intermittency was certainly a problem.

      With cheap iron, it was possible to make thousands of steam engines, and extract useful work from them, to push water to where it was needed.

      you could also make complex spinning machines, driven by those engines. Weaving and other processes became independent of falling water

      There had been spinning looms and such for centuries, but they were made of wood. As iron casting methods improved, wood was replaced over time. But that wasn’t what kicked off the ‘industrial revolution’.

      Once coal delivered a new energy source, looms, spinning machines etc could be made of iron, and mass produced. One operator could look after many machines, factories could be filled with people, producing vast quantities.

      The transfer from water to steam power would have been gradual of course, over decades.


      Iron furnaces tended to be established in valleys, (pre industrial revolution) to use falling water. With the steam engine, water could fall to drive the blast fans, then be pumped back uphill in an endless ‘energy storage circuit’, A form of battery. They were quite common. I’ve seen several of them. It wasn’t possible to make usable iron without the blast process, so the more iron was needed, the bigger the fans had to be.

      Newcomen engines were used early on, then Watt developed the ‘modern’ steam engine in 1776, which has been in use ever since, with only minor tweaks. it was (for the time) an efficient ‘energy converter’. Which Newcomen’s engine wasn’t. Which was also the problem with the ‘Greek spinning kettle device’ of 2000+ years ago.

      this was typical throughout the industrialising uk, where coal and iron ore were often found in close proximity

      Canals usually needed steam pumps to maintain levels. The canal (long gone) at the bottom of my garden had a Watt steam engine installed there in 1778. It’s a matter of some pride that the man himself would have worked down there 200 odd years ago as it was one of his first installations.

      The important factor is that Watt couldn’t make his engines until 70 years after Darby provided cheap iron.


      the cotton trade predominated in NW England because the damp atmosphere helped with the stability of the cotton thread itself.

      As opposed to NE England where the drier air was better for spinning wool.

      btw Sven, if you want to exchange discussions on the industrial revolution privately, I’d be happy to do so, rather than clutter up this thread too much.


      • Good points! Thanks!

      • Sven Røgeberg says:

        Thank you, Norman, for generously sharing your knowledge on the subject. Tvedt conducts comparative history research and, to put it bluntly, his view can be formulated as follows: Why did the industrial breakthrough come in England and not in China, the leading civilization of the time? China had all the technologies and raw materials needed, what they lacked was stable hydropower in small streams and rivers, waterways that did not freeze and that did not have much sludge and gravel that destroyed the water wheels. The water wheels powered both the machines in the textileindustri and the blast fans in the iron furnaces, which produced cheap, high-quality iron. He seems to think that in the first phase of the industrial revolution 1760-1820 the steam engine played only a minor role, if any at all. He writes, for example, about Richard Arkwright’s first textile factory that the water source came from a small stream, Bonnsal, which flowed out of a nearby underground mine. Arkwright led the creek with the relatively warm water into the factory site, “gave it a sufficient fall to drive the water wheel,” which then started the machines in the factory. How did he create a sufficient fall? Were steam engines involved in pumping the water up as you describe? The same question applies to the blast furnaces of Darby and others. The devil lies here in detail, because it`s on the base of spesific features of the topography and hydrology in England that Tvedt builds his “revolutionary and innovative” thesis that a key prerequisite for an industrial breakthrough in England was due to the distinctive water landscape in the northwest corner of the country.

        • Kowalainen says:

          Hydropower and iron is the fundament of IC. As a matter of fact, it still is, always will be. The rest simply follows with time and equal opportunity.

          The only thing an abundance of FF’s created was an overshoot of entitled princesses in IC.

        • Hi Sven

          It could be that Tvert ignores politics.

          The Chinese fleets reached right across the Pacific and the Indian Ocean by the 13/14th c. Then they seemed to give up on the idea, Internal politics changed their direction. (don’t know a great deal about it tbh)

          It could have happened in France or Germany, but the political climate there was different. France in particular was drained by its aristocratic/bureaucratic system, which discouraged manufacturing science. Germany was a group of independent states.


          In the last 4 years a similar thing has started in the USA. The anti-science movement injected poison into government. The USA began a withdrawal from logic and reason. Reasonable people jumped ship. Godbotherers took the wheel from able seamen.
          Just like China, isolationism seemed a good idea.

          Hopefully Biden is back on course, but imagine, say another 20/30 or more years with the jesusfreaks dancing around the president chanting that this physical law, or that science was ‘fake’. (Climate change?)

          And an idiot POTUS agreeing with them, to suit his own ends. And then more idiots joining in the chorus, shutting down sane government.

          anti-science hasn’t gone away. Anything that doesn’t fit with the hoax mentality is ‘fake news’ .
          That is happening right now.

          Social media becomes the virus of collective insanity. In no time at all the infected mob invades the Capitol building, because ‘fake news’ is driving them there. A (millionaire) bed manufacturer is standing by the president ranting about god and martial law.

          and the POTUS is nodding.


          In Uk we had got rid of autocratic rulers and allowed commerce free reign. Plus the great innovators/ironmakers tended to be Quakers who were ‘outside’ the commercial stream of normality to a certain extent. They perfected cannonmaking, and added Chinese gunpowder. (typical pacifists). They also became great chocolate makers.

          This was where it all kicked off:



          The big factor in the industrial revolution was not just in production of ‘stuff’, but the production of people to buy stuff.
          one leapfrogged on the other. No use producing masses of cotton fabric if there’s no one to buy it.

          Iron was the key, because iron (better ploughs) released more food-energy from the ground. That began to increase the population, and hence demand. (for everything)

          But the iron makers were running out of trees (for charcoal) so had to find a new smelting fuel (coke).

          By geological chance, their furnace was sitting in a post-glacial valley, where ice run-off (000s of years earlier) had carved through seams of coal and ironstone, so they were immediately available. So a short canal or rail track could dump ores straight into furnaces.

          Steam pumps pushed water back up the valley to reservoirs, to form the battery to drive the fans.

          Without the steam pumps, iron couldn’t be produced until sufficient water built up through natural flows, to allow high powered mass-release. You can’t drive big blast furnaces from small streams. A massive pre-buildup is needed.

          No different to an electric car, needing several hours of charge for 1 or 2 hours driving.

          • D3G says:

            “Hopefully Biden is back on course…”

            Chris Hedges argues that Biden will do what he has done for his entire career, that which best serves the corporate world. Linked a very recent interview with Hedges. I think you will find he makes some valid points. Cheers, D3G.

            America Has The Tinder To IGNITE Social Uprising


            • Last I read, Biden is a raving Marxist, determined to reduce the USA to economic parity with Venezuela, (at best).
              Maybe that was just fake news, a conspiracy.

              One way or another, we are all locked into an economic system that functions on the delusion that the planet is somehow private property, to be bought and sold to create a profit margin that will increase forever.

              That said. Biden is no different to you or I, and must try to run the country accordingly.

              He has no choice but to serve the corporate world.

              We are ALL part of the corporate world.

              We convert energy into wages. Then use those wages to convert more energy into wages.

              That is what we and the ‘corporate world’ do.

              Get off by all means.


              I don’t think Biden will run the country like a Ponzi scheme as blatantly as the don did.

              If he decided to run against the corporate world, the economic system would collapse.

              Hedges goes for radical socialism, which I understand and agree with in principle. But that has been tried elsewhere, and failed. Anything else is wish economics and wish politics.

              A fairer distribution of wealth might work.

              Biden is intelligent enough to know what he is facing:
              Available energy is insufficient to supply the aspirations of the market it serves.

              (another way of saying: running faster and faster to stand still)

              forget politics for a moment, stop and think what that means.

              It means that by 2024, the economic system will be even further down the slope of oblivion that it is now. And Biden will be blamed for it. (of course).

              It willl also mean that the insurrection of last will will be seen as the start of nationwide civil disorder. (call it panic if you like).

              Subsequent elections, (while they last) will deliver harsher and harsher fascistic regimes, and ultimate secessions.

              I admit I could be off course in the short term, but not long term–a decade at most

            • Kowalainen says:

              Economic redistribution = inflation in the economy and in the useless eatery with nothing to show for the owners.

              Few high paying jobs anymore. That shtick has run its course in the era of cheap energy. Expect more social stratification during Biden.

              The reality is that nothing can be done on the march towards technofeudalism.

              Subsistence-UBI for the former useless eaters in the best case.

              Good luck to you all.

          • Sven Rogeberg says:

            Thanks, Norman, very interesting what you writes about the locations of the furnace in Coalbrookdale in the post-glacial valley. Then England did not just have geographic luck (which is Tvedts main argument),but also geological luck, Tvedt does not ignore political or cultural factors, he doesn`t dismiss them as causes, he tries to point out however that political and cultural factors were not sufficient for the industrial kickstart.

            • Sven

              I think everything combined into the right combination of events at the right place at the right time.
              It had to happen somewhere.

              much like winning the lottery—buy the wrong ticket and you don’t win

              (story of my life)

          • Sven Røgeberg says:

            Thanks, Norman, very interesting what you writes about the locations of the furnace in Coalbrookdale in the post-glacial valley. Then England did not just have geographic luck (which is Tvedts main argument),but also geological luck, Tvedt does not ignore political or cultural factors, he doesn`t dismiss them as causes, he tries to point out however that political and cultural factors were not sufficient for the industrial kickstart.

          • Robert Firth says:

            Wow, Norman, an amazingly compact and illuminating view of history! Thank you. And now for Admiral Cheng Ho (郑和).

            To add what I know, having attended while I lived in Singapore the six hundredth anniversary celebrations of those voyages. Cheng Ho’s enormous “treasure fleet” was commissioned by the Yongle Emperor of the Ming Dynasty. Its voyages lasted from 1405 to 1422.

            They were not voyages of discovery, but rather voyages of diplomacy and trade. They carried silk, China’s unique export, and brought back exotic goods from afar, most famously a giraffe from Africa.

            The Admiral did indeed explore much of the littoral of the Indian Ocean, but stopping only at places already known to the Middle Kingdom. The story that he crossed the Pacific is a fantasy concocted by a Western author (whom I met).

            He sailed mostly in sight of land; the Chinese had invented the magnetic compass centuries earlier, but used it not for navigation but for feng shui (風水).

            The voyages were discontinued because they were hugely expensive, but brought neither enhanced trade nor robust political alliances.

            By the way, if you ever visit Malacca, in peninsular Malaya, you will find just north of the city a temple with a statue of Cheng Ho. Worth a visit.

            • Thank you for bringing me up to speed on Cheng Ho Robert.

              Not having researched that subject at all, I took the pacific voyage at face value. Journalist G/f always admonishes me to check everything 3 times!

              I have to confess a lifetime immersion in the iron thing, living just across the way from what was one of the Darby mansions, (still there) and surrounded in a sense by what used to be all their workings in that field of industry, long greened over and prettified now.

              An infinite curiosity helps of course, as you obviously have

      • MM says:

        Look at those Europeans (pics inside):

        • you may have missed the point.

          iron has been around for millennia.

          it’s the quantity of available iron that altered the structure of civilisation itself, not iron per se.

          it isn’t possible to make 1000 miles of railway track in a hammer mill

      • Robert Firth says:

        Thank you, Norman, a fascinating question: could the Aeolipile have started an industrial revolution? Several objections come to mind. First, building a steam engine requires some precise machining, as Newcomen discovered. But this was available in Antiquity, as the Antikythera Machine proves.

        Secondly, the steam was not recycled, as it is in a modern steam engine, so the device would run out of water and stop. True, but the Ancients could build clepsydrae that had a constantly replenished water supply, so that was not a show stopper.

        Finally, what is the use of a machine that does less work than the slave who tends it? I think that is the killer; the device could not be scaled up with the technology of the time; it was a table top toy. And so, Toynbee’s “Three Lives” notwithstanding, we could never have had Alexandrian Greeks conquering space.

        • Robert, this shows the aeolophile actually doing work:


          I hadn’t taken the trouble to find out, thanks for prodding me in that direction. interesting. The work output relative to size is very small. You are quite right in making the point that slave muscle is cheaper.

          But as I see it, that’s not how the industrial revolution could have started.

          mechanised industry must have hard, fine edges that can be reproduced in quantity. the actual application is irrelevant.

          the industrial revolution was grounded in that ‘reproducible (vast) quantity’. Only iron can deliver that, and only if it’s really cheap. Around here, even some of the kerb edging is iron, as are window frames in 150 yr old workers cottages. The world’s first iron framed building is only 10m from the Darby furnace.

          Molten cheap iron can be poured to any shape required, and continually reproduced.

          Hard edges allow you to gain access to everything else. It’s what allows the manufacture of engines. The Greeks did not have access to cheap surplus iron.

          steam engines allow the digging of (deep) ores that provide the seemingly endless supply of raw materials, with which to build still more engines, and power them. (my rotary motion if you like).

          Our entire global commercial infrastructure depends on that. I may have missed something, but I can think of no exceptions.


          As to the Antikythera, I always assumed that was hand crafted. Done to incredibly fine standards, agreed, but by hand nonetheless.
          Such craftsmen were certainly available, which other artefacts can attest to, which would concur with my thinking that it was hand made.
          Possible also, was fine casting and then worked by hand

          an incredible artefact by any standards

          The term ‘machining’ infers an external mechanical operation/function of some kind. If they had another ‘machine’ to do the machining, then that too would have required some form of original production technology.

          If we think of Harrisons No 1 clock, it was largely hand crafted, big and cumbersome, even though it worked perfectly. But by the time he refined it to No4, it was hand sized, and could be reproduced by existing machines in hundreds.

          we can all see better ways of doing things after the first time.

          • Robert Firth says:

            Thank you, Norman; a most informative analysis, with which I largely agree. And yes, the Industrial Revolution would have been impossible without mass production, as Adam Smith explained, even if the machines provided the brute force, and mere humans performed the detail work.

  42. Yoshua says:

    I finally found a long term WTI chart. WTI would have break above 65 to break above the line of resistance.


  43. Mirror on the wall says:

    > A 27.5-My underlying periodicity detected in extinction episodes of non-marine tetrapods


    Non-marine tetrapods (amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals) have apparently experienced at least 10 distinct episodes of intensified extinctions over the past 300 My. Eight of these ten non-marine extinction events are concurrent with known marine-extinction episodes, which previously yielded evidence for an underlying period of ~26.4 to 27.3 My. We performed circular spectral analysis and Fourier transform analysis of the ages of the ten recognised tetrapod-extinction events, and detected a statistically significant (99% confidence) underlying periodicity of ~27.5 My. We also find that the eight coeval non-marine/marine-extinction pulses all occurred at the times of eruptions of Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs) (continental flood-basalts and oceanic plateaus), with potentially severe environmental effects. Three of these co-extinction episodes are further correlated with the ages of the three largest (≥100-km diameter) impact craters of the last 260 My, which are also apparently capable of causing extinction events. These findings suggest that global cataclysmal events with an underlying periodicity of ~27.5 My were the cause of the coordinated periodic extinction episodes of non-marine tetrapods and marine organisms.

    …. The potential correlation of the periodic non-marine and marine extinctions with large LIP eruptions and large-body impacts is noteworthy, as both the eruptions and impact craters have also shown some evidence of an underlying ~30-My cycle (Rampino and Caldeira 1993, 2015). Although it is likely that LIP eruptions are the result of internal Earth dynamics (Rampino and Caldeira 1993) the pacing may be partly related to astrophysical factors, notably the ~30-My interval between passes of the solar system through the midplane of the disk-shaped Galaxy (Rampino and Stothers 1984), which might modulate encounters with disk-dark matter leading to periodic comet storms (Randall and Reece 2014). Furthermore, astrophysicists have predicted that coeval capture and annihilation of some of the disk dark-matter particles in the Earth’s interior might cause periodic thermal disturbances that could trigger concurrent mantle-plume activity and resulting flood-basalt volcanism (Abbas and Abbas 1998; Rampino 2015). It has not escaped our attention that coincidently large impacts and flood-basalt eruptions might indicate a more direct connection between the two phenomena (Rampino 1987, 2017; Richards et al. 2015). Further coupled geological (e.g., improved dating of geological events, better estimates of extinction magnitudes) and astrophysical research (e.g., searches for disk dark matter) (Shaviv et al. 2014; McKee et al. 2015; Kramer and Randall 2016) should shed additional light on these potential associations.


    • My takeaway is that the earth seems to encounter extinction events about every 27.5 million years. These extinction events seem to be highly correlated with the occurrence of one of two events:

      1. Large Igneous Provinces – A type of very large volcano, as I understand it
      2. Large body impacts, such as might be caused by the earth being hit by a large chunk from a volcano.

      I see some of the other articles linked elsewhere suggest that the world in now 30 million years overdue for an extinction event.

      • Robert Firth says:

        Thank you, Gail, both far more probable explanations than the idea that the galaxy boasts eight equally spaced extinction spokes. My vote is for the volcanoes; the motion of the Earth’s tectonic plates is regular, and simple statistics says regular collisions create regular volcanic episodes.

        • Kowalainen says:

          Yes, as if the planet, comets, sun and the solar system itself wasn’t enough to cause turmoil in the planets internals and surface.

          Trying to impose observable reality onto mysticism is indeed plain and utter rubbish. The only thing that can shed some truth in a hypothesis is experiment.

          We are always only one heart beat, one extinction level comet and massive solar flare away from oblivion.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “It has not escaped our attention that coincidently large impacts and flood-basalt eruptions might indicate a more direct connection between the two phenomena.”

      they might think it is not yet scientifically conclusive, but it seems intuitive that a period of very large impacts would produce a period of large volcanic activity, so cause and effect.

      I think it’s very probable.

  44. Mirror on the wall says:

    > Earth is overdue a mass extinction event by 30MILLION years… after the last apocalyptic catastrophe killed the dinosaurs

    Doomsday scenarios are usually the subject of Hollywood blockbusters.

    But experts believe they are more scientific fact than science fiction – with Earth overdue a mass extinction event for more than 30million years.

    They have worked out that catastrophic global incidents come roughly every 27million years.

    And with the last mass extinction 66million years ago – when dinosaurs were wiped out by an asteroid or comet – they reckon Earth could be on borrowed time.

    Catastrophic events such as meteor strikes and eruptions can follow a cycle.

    With new statistical analysis, US researchers concluded extinction comet showers occur every 26 to 30million years when they pass through the galaxy.

    If they hit Earth, the cataclysmic impacts could create widespread dark and cold, wildfires, acid rain and ozone depletion.

    These would potentially kill off land and marine life.

    The scientists also found all eight of the coinciding mass extinctions on land and in the oceans matched times of flood-basalt eruptions – where an enormous amount of lava flows on to the Earth’s surface. This would create lethal greenhouse heating and less oxygen in the ocean.

    Any threat is down to how our planet orbits the Milky Way, they say. The study’s author, Professor Michael Rampino from New York University’s Department of Biology, said: ‘It seems that large-body impacts and the pulses of internal Earth activity that create flood-basalt volcanism may be marching to the same 27million-year drumbeat as the extinctions, perhaps paced by our orbit in the galaxy.

    ‘These new findings of coinciding, sudden mass extinctions on land and in the oceans, and of the common 26 to 27million-year cycle, lend credence to the idea of periodic global catastrophic events as the triggers for extinctions.

    ‘In fact, three of the mass annihilations of species on land and in the sea are already known to have occurred at the same times as the three largest impacts of the last 250million years, each capable of causing a global disaster and resulting mass extinctions.

    ‘The global mass extinctions were apparently caused by the largest cataclysmic impacts and massive volcanism, perhaps sometimes working in concert.’

    The findings are published in the journal Historical Biology.


    • Mirror on the wall says:

      The claim in the DM headline that the earth is overdue a mass extinction event by 30 My does not seem to be part of the paper and it is not clear why they stated that, apart from journalistic sensationalism. Presumably there is no guarantee that a meteor will strike every cycle anyway.

      The most recent mass, if relatively minor, extinction event was the Eocene–Oligocene extinction event 33 million years ago which correlates with the Popigai meteor crash.



    • Mirror on the wall says:

      Anyway, so, yes, extinction is obviously a feature of the process of life and its evolution, both ongoing and possibly cyclical.

      All is contingent, mutable and transient.

      Life is a b and then you go extinct?

      oo – ug – cheep – primate and other animal noises

    • Tim Groves says:

      I don’t often read stories about the earth being millions of years overdue for a massive mega-extinction event on steroids.

      But when I do, I read ’em in the Daily Mail.

      • Bei Dawei says:

        Drudge often carries reports on the mega-volcano apparently lurking beneath Yellowstone National Park, whose eruption would destroy the continental USA. Drudge also likes Christian apocalypticism and UFO stories.

        Using my psychic powers, I predict a mega-extinction celestial impact event will happen on July 1, 2021, give or take a few million years. Unless we’re including species other than humans, in which case *we* are the mega-extinction event.

    • Bobby says:

      So 30 mya, probably on a quiet, peaceful blue sky day, experts believe an alarm bell activated and all existing life forms stopped what they were doing and went “Oh no, we’re overdue! but then the big oncoming block from da sky just flew past unexpectedly, dabbed, smiled and said Yeet! Gottya!

      After that all the primitive life forms said “ Oh goodie, now we can grow gratefully big cerebral hemispheres and lots of fossil fuels. Then someday, someone way way way in the future will realise WJH, look into the sky and go oh shit!

      And they all lived happily ever after.. until now! 😉

      Hopefully the oncoming anomaly will still be smiling, say “that was fun, you should’ve seen the looks on your faces……let’s do it again !

      Talking Rocks.

    • Robert Firth says:

      It takes about 240 million years for the Sun to complete one orbit of the galaxy. In other words, these speculations are ignorant rubbish, much like Zechariah Sitkin’s rubbish.

  45. JoJo says:

    Tom Cowen discusses “Is a MRNA vaccine genetic modification” and more.

    • Ed says:

      JoJo thank you this answered my questions on mRNA vaccines. I always enjoy your posts they are well informed.

    • This is interesting. I listened to the first 32 minutes of this, which is the talk itself. There is also a question and answer period afterward, that I did not get to.

      Tom Cohen explains generally what happens with an mRNA vaccine, describing quite a few of the biological processes. He says you no longer need to fear eating genertically modified food, because with the mRNA vaccine, you have genetically modified yourself.

      I expect the questions at the end go into what specifically might go wrong, after having the new vaccine. It probably is interesting too.

    • MM says:

      Necessary to read this:

      Who talks? A virologist.
      Please study about “Exosomes”. Humans constantly emit DNA/RNA fragments. Of course these can be tested using a PCR-Test. It is possible, that a cell excretes RNA fragments that look like Virusses, when the cell is poisoned.
      This is a very delicate issue and quickly delves into CT.
      The Problem is : Large illness outbreaks are more likely to be caused by environmetal intoxication than from viruses. The condensed data that we have about COVID-19 that is collected only under the assumtion of a virus unfortunately will not allow us to study this as the researchers of this study claim:

  46. Tim Groves says:

    The actor current playing the role of Joe Biden gave a press briefing the other day at which he said his “priority” for distributing coronavirus economic relief available through the recently passed $900 billion stimulus bill would be small businesses with black, Latino, Asian, Native American, and women owners.

    I’m outraged. Why didn’t he include quadraplegic transgender lesbians in that list?

    Why the divisiveness? The incoming administration is going to use modified plays from the Communist playbook in order to further fracture the social fabric and raise tensions in order to destroy the United States as a functioning society.

    The Democrats are intent on introducing systemic racism in order to try to appeal to their base including minorities and to anger the majority. The classic Communist idea of class conflict was to set the port and destitute proletariate against the fabulously well-to-do bourgeoise—although in practice, anyone owning their own home was regarded as part of the repressive landlord class. The Woke Democrat idea is to substitute whites and particular white men for the bourgeoise and everyone else for the proletariate, and goad them into hating and fighting each other, while the sociopathic oligarchy sits above the fray and watches it all play out like the Gods of Mount Olympus.

    Divide and conquer works almost every time. And once the Communists cement their power, they will try to grab the guns and then our will see the real tyranny begin. Patriots, Deplorables, Karens and NRA members will not be welcome in the New Amerika. If Americans give up their guns, they will give up everything. Don’t think it can’t happen, because all the necessary ingredients are now in the pot and the brew is being brought to the boil.

    • Tim Groves says:

      For all those who think there is only one Joe Biden, this video is for you.

      It’s short, clear, and extremely well done.

      (I don’t endorse the claim that the original Biden has been executed, only that the double is making all the public appearances these days.)

      • Kowalainen says:

        No need for a body double when the hottest deep fakes can do the job with bravado.

        Actually, there is no need for any living faces of corruption and sanctimonious hypocrisy at all.

        Ah, the irony when the faces of fake themselves can be faked.

        I’m loving it. 🥰

      • VFatalis says:

        Which one got the jab ?

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        The use of imposters of prominent personages have been known.

        • Bei Dawei says:

          Easy–the *real* pope is infallible in faith and morals (when speaking dogmatically and backed by his bishops)!

      • Lidia17 says:

        not this appearance, I don’t think..

        Hey.. 12 million more votes than Obama.. the most popular prez. candidate EVAH!!

      • Aren’t you aware of the famous Akira Kurosawa movie Kagemusha? It existed for a long time.

        Around 220 BCE, Zhang Liang, who would later became a famous strategist, decided to kill the first emperor of China . Zhang hired a thug to attack the chariot carrying the Emperor, which he did and destroyed the occupant of the vehicle, but it was revealed that someone who looked similar to the Emperor was on there, with the real emperor traveling in a more modest means of conveyance.

    • Divide and conquer is a huge problem that people don’t think about today.

      Actually, the self-organizing system seems to provide the division already, by providing two different answers to our predicament today, both of them likely wrong. People end up lining up on one side of the COVID issue or the other.

      • Kowalainen says:

        “(…)both of them likely wrong”


        I would say, not even wrong. Absurd, obnoxious, unrealistic, ideas from entitled princesses of IC.

        Count all sides out at once, specially the centrist ones with no firm foundation of their absurdities.

      • Xabier says:

        ‘Divide and conquer’ is a method of governing which few people think of today because they never have done: that’s why it is so effective!

        Set the people against one another, make concessions or give privileges to this group, then that, cut out or – better – bribe the dangerous ones, and so on.

        One can govern with the gun and whip, but it’s better to use psychology.

        • Harry McGibbs says:

          Rising complexity means a profusion of issues over which to disagree, whilst diminishing returns makes people ever more disagreeable. Divided we fall.

          • Good way of describing the situation.

          • Xabier says:

            Walking around this village yesterday, I found that nearly everyone was being really nice – lock-down has improved things here!

            Several people said that they now hate going into town, as the empty streets and shops depress them too much.

            If the rules get stricter, I suspect that everyone will rebel, especially as we have one of the lowest death rates in the whole country.

            There would be some hope if we had a real leader to give an example of resistance.

          • MM says:

            Not very new thoughts actually.


            …those good old days of the good old USA

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