2021: More troubles likely

Most people expect that the economy of 2021 will be an improvement from 2020. I don’t think so. Perhaps COVID-19 will be somewhat better, but other aspects of the economy will likely be worse.

Back in November 2020, I showed a chart illustrating the path that energy consumption seems to be on. The sharp downturn in energy consumption has occurred partly because the cost of oil, gas and coal production tends to rise, since the portion that is least expensive to extract and ship tends to be removed first.

At the same time, prices that energy producers are able to charge their customers don’t rise enough to compensate for their higher costs. Ultimate customers are ordinary wage earners, and their wages are not escalating as rapidly as fossil fuel production and delivery costs. It is the low selling price of fossil fuels, relative to the rising cost of production, that causes a collapse in the production of fossil fuels. This is the crisis we are now facing.

Figure 1. Estimate by Gail Tverberg of World Energy Consumption from 1820 to 2050. Amounts for earliest years based on estimates in Vaclav Smil’s book Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects and BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy for the years 1965 to 2019. Energy consumption for 2020 is estimated to be 5% below that for 2019. Energy for years after 2020 is assumed to fall by 6.6% per year, so that the amount reaches a level similar to renewables only by 2050. Amounts shown include more use of local energy products (wood and animal dung) than BP includes.

With lower energy consumption, many things tend to go wrong at once: The rich get richer while the poor get poorer. Protests and uprisings become more common. The poorer citizens and those already in poor health become more vulnerable to communicable diseases. Governments feel a need to control their populations, partly to keep down protests and partly to prevent the further spread of disease.

If we look at the situation shown on Figure 1 on a per capita basis, the graph doesn’t look quite as steep, because lower energy consumption tends to bring down population. This reduction in population can come from many different causes, including illnesses, fewer babies born, less access to medical care, inadequate clean water and starvation.

Figure 2. Amounts shown in Figure 1, divided by population estimates by Angus Maddison for earliest years and by 2019 United Nations population estimates for years to 2020. Future population estimated to be falling half as quickly as energy supply is falling in Figure 1. World population drops to 2.8 billion by 2050.

What Is Ahead for 2021?

In many ways, it is good that we really don’t know what is ahead for 2021. All aspects of GDP production require energy consumption. A huge drop in energy consumption is likely to mean disruption in the world economy of varying types for many years to come. If the situation is likely to be bad, many of us don’t really want to know how bad.

We know that many civilizations have had the same problem that the world does today. It usually goes by the name “Collapse” or “Overshoot and Collapse.” The problem is that the population becomes too large for the resource base. At the same time, available resources may degrade (soils erode or lose fertility, mines deplete, fossil fuels become harder to extract). Eventually, the economy becomes so weakened that any minor disturbance – attack from an outside army, or shift in weather patterns, or communicable disease that raises the death rate a bit – threatens to bring down the whole system. I see our current economic problem as much more of an energy problem than a COVID-19 problem.

We know that when earlier civilizations collapsed, the downfall tended not to happen all at once. Based on an analysis by Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov in their book, Secular Cycles, economies tended to first hit a period of stagflation, for perhaps 40 or 50 years. In a way, today’s economy has been in a period of stagflation since the 1970s, when it became apparent that oil was becoming more difficult to extract. To hide the problem, increasing debt was issued at ever-lower interest rates.

According to Turchin and Nefedov, the stagflation stage eventually moves into a steeper “crisis” period, marked by overturned governments, debt defaults, and falling population. In the examples analyzed by Turchin and Nefedov, this crisis portion of the cycle took 20 to 50 years. It seems to me that the world economy reached the beginning of the crisis period in 2020 when lockdowns in response to the novel coronavirus pushed the weakened world economy down further.

The examples examined by Turchin and Nefedov occurred in the time period before fossil fuels were widely used. It may very well be that the current collapse takes place more rapidly than those in the past, because of dependency on international supply lines and an international banking system. The world economy is also very dependent on electricity–something that may not last. Thus, there seems to be a chance that the crisis phase may last a shorter length of time than 20 to 50 years. It likely won’t last only a year or two, however. The economy can be expected to fall apart, but somewhat slowly. The big questions are, “How slowly?” “Can some parts continue for years, while others disappear quickly?”

Some Kinds of Things to Expect in 2021 (and beyond)

[1] More overturned governments and attempts at overturned governments.

With increasing wage disparity, there tend to be more and more unhappy workers at the bottom end of the wage distribution. At the same time, there are likely to be people who are unhappy with the need for high taxes to try to fix the problems of the people at the bottom end of the wage distribution. Either of these groups can attempt to overturn their government if the government’s handling of current problems is not to the group’s liking.

[2] More debt defaults.

During the stagflation period that the world economy has been through, more and more debt has been added at ever-lower interest rates. Much of this huge amount of debt relates to property that is no longer of much use (airplanes without passengers; office buildings that are no longer needed because people now work at home; restaurants without enough patrons; factories without enough orders). Governments will try to avoid defaults as long as possible, but eventually, the unreasonableness of this situation will prevail. The impact of defaults can be expected to affect many parts of the economy, including banks, insurance companies and pension plans.

[3] Extraordinarily slow progress in defeating COVID-19.

There seems to be a significant chance that COVID-19 is lab-made. In fact, the many variations of COVID-19 may also be lab made. Researchers around the world have been studying “Gain of Function” in viruses for more than 20 years, allowing the researchers to “tweak” viruses in whatever way they desire. There seem to be several variations on the original virus now. A suicidal/homicidal researcher could decide to “take out” as many other people as possible, by creating yet another variation on COVID-19.

To make matters worse, immunity to coronaviruses in general doesn’t seem to be very long lasting. According to an October 2020 article, 35-year study hints that coronavirus immunity doesn’t last long. Analyzing other coronaviruses, it concluded that immunity tends to disappear quite quickly, leading to an annual cycle of illnesses such as colds. There seems to be a substantial chance that COVID-19 will return on an annual basis. If vaccines generate a similar immunity pattern, we will be facing an issue of needing new vaccines every year, as we do with the flu.

[4] Cutbacks on education of many kinds.

Many people getting advanced degrees find that the time and expense did not lead to an adequate financial reward afterwards. At the same time, universities find that there are not many grants to support faculty, outside of the STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Math) fields. With this combination of problems, universities with limited budgets make the financial decision to reduce or eliminate programs with reduced student interest and no outside funding.

At the same time, if local school districts find themselves short of funds, they may choose to use distance learning, simply to save money. This type of cutback could affect grade school children, especially in poor areas.

[5] Increasing loss of the top layers of governments.

It takes money/energy to support extra layers of government. The UK is now completely out of the European Union. We can expect to see more changes of this type. The UK may dissolve into smaller regions. Other parts of the EU may leave. This problem could affect many countries around the world, such as China or countries of the Middle East.

[6] Less globalization; more competition among countries.

Every country is struggling with the problem of not enough jobs that pay well. This is really an energy-related problem. Instead of co-operating, countries will tend to increasingly compete, in the hope that their country can somehow get a larger share of the higher-paying jobs. Tariffs will continue to be popular.

[7] More empty shelves in stores.

In 2020, we discovered that supply lines can break, making it impossible to purchase products a person expects. In fact, new governmental rules can have the same impact, for example, if a country bans travel to its country. We should expect more of this in 2021, and in the years ahead.

[8] More electrical outages, especially in locations where reliance on intermittent wind and solar for electricity is high.

In most places in the world, oil products were available before electricity. On the way down, we should expect to see the reverse of this pattern: Electricity will disappear first because it is hardest to maintain a constant supply. Oil will be available, at least as long as is electricity.

There is a popular belief that we will “run out of oil,” and that renewable electricity can be a solution. I do not think that intermittent electricity can be a solution for anything. It works poorly. At most, it acts as a temporary extender to fossil fuel-provided electricity.

[9] Possible hyperinflation, as countries issue more and more debt and no longer trust each other.

I often say that I expect oil and energy prices to stay low, but this doesn’t really hold if many countries around the world issue more and more government debt as a way to try to keep businesses from failing, debt from defaulting, and stock market prices inflated. There is a danger that all prices will inflate, and that sellers of products will no longer accept the hyperinflated currency that countries around the world are trying to provide.

My concern is that international trade will break down to a significant extent as hyperinflation of all currencies becomes a problem. The higher prices of oil and other energy products won’t really lead to any more production because prices of all goods and services will be inflating at the same time; fossil fuel producers will not get any special benefit from these higher prices.

If a significant loss of trade occurs, there will be even more empty shelves because there is very little any one country can make on its own. Without adequate goods, population loss may be very high.

[10] New ways of countries trying to fight with each other.

When there are not enough resources to go around, historically, wars have been fought. I expect wars will continue to be fought, but the approaches will “look different” than in the past. They may involve tariffs on imported goods. They may involve the use of laboratory-made viruses. They may involve attacking the internet of another country, or its electrical distribution system. There may be no officially declared war. Strange things may simply take place that no one understands, without realizing that the country is being attacked.


We seem to be headed for very bumpy waters in the years ahead, including 2021. Our real problem is an energy problem that we do not have a solution for.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,373 Responses to 2021: More troubles likely

    • Sounds a lot like denial.

    • Azure Kingfisher says:

      Perhaps people give Bill Gates too much credit. He’s playing the role of a Bond villain but his performance may be the extent of his power. Gates is a member of the families that run the show. He is related to 10 U.S. presidents, 3 vice presidents, 7 first ladies, 18 governors, 4 kings, 2 Canadian prime ministers, Winston Churchill, Queen Elizabeth II, Princess Diana, Prince William, Prince Harry, and a large number of other public figures. With a pedigree like that how many of Gates’ life choices are really his own?:


      • Xabier says:

        Someone observed that he, Gates, is merely one of the means by which things are done, not in fact a prime mover.

    • Robert Firth says:

      The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine was supposed to be sold at cost to all comers, ie about $3 per shot. The company reneged on that promise after a visit from Bill Gates. How he persuaded them is conveniently not reported.

  1. Bei Dawei says:

    Electricity and gas shortages in Uzbekstan evoke political complaints:


    • The article talks about “the woeful condition of basic infrastructure, which has seen precious little overhauling since Soviet times.”

      I expect that this is a problem in a lot of places. The US added a lot of its infrastructure in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s. We know that some of the transmission lines infrastructure in California that was leading to fires was something like 100 years old.

  2. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Credit has replaced equity and savings as the main instrument to fund growth and spending but also, in this pandemic-induced economic shutdown, to bail out an already overextended system. Credit is eating the world…

    “Debt has always played a central part in economic development. But there is likely a level beyond which the ‘debtisation’ (or should it be ‘indebtisation’?) of the markets will harm the economy permanently by magnifying volatility and crystallizing financial instability.”


    • Promising future goods and services that are’t there, and can’t be there, without more extraordinarily cheap-to-produce energy supplies, stops working after a time. Intermittent wind and solar don’t work.

    • Robert Firth says:

      Debt has not always played a part in economic development. I refer you once again to Adam Smith, Frederic Bastiat, and Samuel Smiles.

  3. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Fears unleashed by the once-in-a-century pandemic are clinging onto volatility markets even as stocks boom to record highs and Wall Street speculators gorge on every risk.

    “For all the euphoria in markets, the Cboe Volatility Index has stayed elevated in an historic divergence between this gauge of investor fear and rallying equities.


  4. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Attacks and Insults Greet Venezuelans Fleeing a Ruined Homeland: Venezuela’s descent into hunger and chaos has strained the region for several years, driving out thousands every month into nearby countries.

    “But now, with the number of Venezuelans in exile reaching 5.4 million, the pandemic’s devastation is increasing the level of hostility toward the newcomers.”


  5. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Nigerian president Muhammadu Buhari has replaced the four heads of the country’s armed forces after years of resisting widespread calls to do so, in a belated acknowledgment of the swiftly deteriorating security situation in Africa’s most populous country…

    “The bandit crisis has made major highways across Nigeria, including the one linking the capital Abuja to northern Kaduna state, all but unpassable.”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Authorities have declared a curfew in and around a city in southeastern Nigeria after clashes erupted between the army and a local militia, killing at least one person, officials and witnesses said Tuesday.”


    • Erdles says:

      Harry McGibbs, I hear you have had a smattering of snow in Islay. Last year was first time in 20 years that we have not made our annual 2 week trip to the island. Do you know our friend Peter (the bald one) in Bruicladdich by any chance ?

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        Erdles, we did indeed have some snow, much to the delight of my youngest – just enough to build a snowman and for the higher elevations to take on a fetching, Alpine character.

        Sorry you missed out on your annual trip. My problem is the reverse – I have, to all intents and purposes, been marooned here since 2019; not that I am complaining, you understand, as there are worse places to be stuck!

        I do know a Peter but he is not in Bruichladdich and boasts an enviable head of hair, so it can’t be him. My wife probably will though. She has a terrific memory for names and faces.

    • Robert Firth says:

      They are not “bandits”, they are Boko Haram, and they are systematically taking over the country.

      • What does Boko Haram do, once they take over?

        • Artleads says:

          i HOPE SOMEBODY CAN ANSWER THAT. I imagine that they indictinate toward their brand of Islam, and do so thoroughly. They use a combination of carrot and stick to enforce their ideology. They provide for everyone in a compound in a material sense. How they organize between pods to take over a country is an unknown.

        • Robert Firth says:

          They have made their agenda quite clear: enforce sharia law at its most strict; force all non Moslems to convert or be killed; abolish the “indirect rule” system established by Lord Lugard and institute a caliphate.

          That is one reason they are succeeding: unlike the present government of Nigeria, they are honest. Perhaps there is a lesson there. But the Christian bigots who burned the Library of Alexandria were also honest, and we did not learn that lesson.

  6. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Europe’s economy is starting to follow the familiar script of lagging its international peers when recovering from a crisis… Political unease over the future leadership of Germany and a crisis in Italy are compounding the gloom.”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “The European Central Bank is stepping up its scrutiny of credit risk at banks across the continent to get a better sense of their preparation for a potential wave of loan defaults triggered by the pandemic.

      “Officials from the ECB and national watchdogs are pushing lenders including BNP Paribas SA, Societe Generale SA and Deutsche Bank AG for additional information on their corporate lending in 2020, people familiar with the matter said.”


      • Robert Firth says:

        I presume the :additional information” being asked for is the number of EUR it will take to bail out these three bankrupt banks?

    • Even China’s apparently good result in 2020 is inflated by government funding used to build unneeded coal mines (at current prices), roads, and homes. They have tried to get China’s coal prices up higher by excluding Australian (and other) imports. But how long this scheme can last is uncertain. The higher coal prices will feed through to higher electricity prices, and reduced margins for all kinds of manufacturers.

  7. Harry McGibbs says:

    ““The [UK] employment data published this morning paints a grim picture for the nation’s job prospects and their finances.

    “With higher redundancies and fewer vacancies, getting back to work for those who have lost jobs during the pandemic is likely to be a tougher uphill struggle.”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Gordon Brown has called for emergency measures to support businesses in the budget after new research from the London School of Economics warned almost 1m UK companies [one in seven] were at risk of failure in the next three months.

      “The former prime minister said the report’s finding that one in seven businesses – employing 2.5 million people – might be forced to close by the spring should act as a “clarion call” to Rishi Sunak…”


      • Harry McGibbs says:

        “England’s much-hyped £2bn green homes grant is in chaos, renewable energy installers say, with some owed tens of thousands of pounds and struggling to stay in business.”


        • Robert Firth says:

          Boris outsourced the management of the scheme to “ICF Virginia”, who seem to have only government contracts. Always a bad sign. They have no one with decision making power in the UK; everything is done from Virginia.

        • This green homes scheme is not a scheme that can possibly work. It requires more money (and resources) than the UK government has to spare.

          If someone had figured out a way to induce wealthy people to adopt these systems, using their own money, it perhaps would have temporarily worked.

          • Artleads says:

            I sense that we are well past the stage where anything like a normal “home” can be green. Orlov might agree that we’re down to one basic model for all, of whatever wealth or social status: a homeless shelter using straightforward fossil fuel materials from the hardware store and that somehow create demand for the ff industry in a managed and predictable manner.

            • Xabier says:

              Artleads. I read something recently that you may find of interest.

              The old houses of Iran were equipped with ‘wind towers’, which contrived cool breezes on even the hottest days.

              In this book, a recent traveller sat in the porch of an abandoned 19th century house in rural Iran, and was pleased to find that the old tower was still functioning: no power, no maintenance…..

            • a says:

              Thanks, Xabier. I’ve heard about the method and should study it. So far, I’m trying to defend colonial wooden buildings with their very deep roof trays, their cross ventilation. And rail against concrete.

  8. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    Power to the PEOPLE!
    Costco already stopped selling product
    “By dropping Chaokoh, Target is joining thousands of stores that refuse to profit from chained monkeys’ misery,” PETA Executive Vice President Tracy Reiman said in a statement. “PETA exposés have confirmed that Thai coconut producers are exploiting monkeys and lying about it, so there’s no excuse for any grocery store to keep Chaokoh on its shelves.”

    According to PETA, 26,000 stores including chains Wegmans, Food Lion and Stop & Shop have cut ties with the coconut milk brand.

    Suppose they will have have to go back and use chained other primates to do the work…sarcasm

  9. Mark Williams says:

    I think that Norman is out of his depth when he touches upon how politics works especially in these oh so complex self organising systems with emergent properties. I think we only have to look at the British media in world War one and the German, and especially World War II all over the world. Why did the A- Keri-can aircraft flotillas sailed out of the harbour and leave the old battleships to be divebombed? Why did the third building at N-ew York have a controlled dem-/- olition? Norman, you have worked all your life as a dentist I believe. Maybe leads to a common, probably commendable, commendable, yet naive, view of modern political (cf. power, control) machinations near the the heart of the military industrial complexes.

    • lol

      I have worked part of my retired life on the equivalent of pulling teeth, in here, trying to rectify the loss of wisdom teeth extracted by people who who should be disbarred from the profession for malpractice and repeated disinformation


      to requote:
      >>>once you are forced to imagine unknown technologies to maintain your conspiracies
      you’ve moved into the realm of magic, which demands a deep and abiding faith in things that do not exist<<<<


      my wage earning life had nothing to do with dentistry—where did that idea come from?
      I confessed to having implants a while ago–and was castigated for wasting global resources. I'd tried DIY'ing them, but the person holding the mirror fainted. Then the wall plugs didnt work very well.

      And big lols—How did Pearl Harbour get in on the conspiracy act?—is that the new one for this week????
      never heard that before —Who organised that? Tojo? Hirohito? Macarthur? (he was always the showman.) Probably arranged it between them, I heard they had shares in a uranium (who needs uranium they said) mine that were a bit lifeless. Once they'd persuaded FDR to go ahead with the Manhattan project, they'd made it bigtime.
      Can you prove they didn't? No? That proves I'm right then.

      any more? Laughter is good for the soul they tell me. Keep 'em coming–the old favourites can get a bit monotonous.

      Why don't you do a bit of research on the Grand Duke Ferdinand assassination in Sarajevo, in 1914. Then get back to me, I can't wait.
      Maybe the Duke shot Princip. That would be a new twist. Then WW1 would become a hoax, and never happened.


      Lets see now. JF Kennedy is only 103, I heard he's living in a retirement Amish community. Or was it that he's living in a penthouse apartment on the top floor of the scientology building? I know it's one or the other.

      Can you prove he isn't? No? Then that proves I'm right.

      I do know for certain that he paid a body double to get shot on his behalf. How do I know that? Because it was Kennedy himself who did the shooting from the book depository in Dallas.
      Ive stood by the car he was shot in, in the Detroit Ford museum, if you need further proof.

      The requote a much used phrase:

      the evidence is clear, if only you would let yourself see it.

  10. avocado says:

    Microsoft has just presented a virtual Ouija board…

  11. VFatalis says:

    From Eudravigilance database reporting fatal cases (Pfizer vaccine only)

    16 jan: 132 deaths
    20 jan: 282 deaths
    23 jan: 438 deaths

    Mid and long term effects still unknown of course.

    • This is the European database. The UK has been giving the vaccine since Dec. 21. I am not sure how much has been given. The EU has expressed anger about not getting their doses, but perhaps they should be happy.

      The large number of deaths of elderly people in Norway seem to have been caused by the Pfizer vaccine.

      • VFatalis says:

        The expressed anger is totally fake, as are doses shortages. Lame attempts at manipulating people to make them believe the vaccine is difficult to obtain, thus desirable.

        • Xabier says:

          I believe you are correct – it’s an elementary psy op. A simulated shortage to encourage take-up.

          ‘Oh, I’m so lucky, I have a vaccine appointment!’

          ‘The Gift of Life’.

  12. adonis says:

    What did you mean when you said we have six months left in an earlier comment what have you found fast eddie ?

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      Foil Eddie means that he was wrong all the other times, and this time is different.

  13. Tim Groves says:

    What the fake surreal ,eerie, make-believe inauguration actually looked like in three minutes of live footage.

    “There’s, like, more people up here with the press than there are at the Capitol, overlooking the inauguration.”

    “There are more people at the West Palm Beach Airport waiting for Trump than there are here at the inauguration.”

    “It’s the first time Biden got thousands of people to an event, but they are all National Guardsmen who are forced to be here.”


  14. The shale frackers Red Queen problem in one simple graph. What happens when you stop running?

  15. First River Steel Data Room Dataset of the Week: US Coking Coal Consumption and Price

  16. Tim Groves says:

    George Galloway thinks Nicola Sturgeon could be out of power within a week!


    This video–maker has a cockney accent and deadpan delivery that you will either love or hate.

    “Okay guys, we might possibly have some good news, not just for Scotland but for the rest of the UK as a whole. Of course, it will mean less rife and ready content for YouTubers but we will happily sacrifice an easy video to get rid of this creepy little hobgoblin Nicola Sturgeon, who I’m sure most will agree belongs on top of Notre Dame with Quasimodo, not leading Scotland down the toilet as she screams how much she hates the English while begging for money from Boris.”

    “I want her to be booted out the door. It’s a shame it’s not a criminal offence to do what she did. Or at least, I expect it’s not. I’m not a lawyer or a police officer or anything like that, so I don’t have a scooby-do what it is. But either way, we all know she ain’t going to prison for anything she’s done. None of these people ever really do.”

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      The UK is definitely doomed if that – and the Workers Party of Britain (Galloway) – is the best defence that it can come up with. It is has turned into a joke now, little more than a comedy sketch – no Spitting Image needed.

      • neil says:

        How many million scots would you expect to be on the train south in the event of Scottish independence? You don’t have to know what Darien means to recognize an economic collapse when it hits you.

        • Mirror on the wall says:

          Sure, like Ireland just cannot succeed economically outside of UK, even though it is ranked second highest in the world for social development.

          All smaller countries in northern Europe do much better than UK in GDP per capita, wages and living standards. UK has completely collapsed productivity growth and there is zero chance of it playing catch up.

          Scotland has as good a chance in the EU as the others to outpace UK, which is why many Scots support independence after the English nationalist disaster of Brexit. The British Empire is long gone and the UK has had its day.

          > Ireland ranked second in the world for quality of life, beating Sweden, Germany and UK

          Ireland now in the ‘very high’ camp, ranked joint second with Switzerland and behind only Norway in the ranking

          Ireland is second only to Norway on a United Nations annual ranking of 189 countries measured according to average longevity, education and income.

          The measure puts Ireland ahead of countries including Germany (6), Sweden (7), Australia (8), and the UK (13), and is a stark improvement compared with when the country was assessed when the index was first drawn up in 1990.


          • Kowalainen says:

            I’m irritated on the idea that the origins of IC being thrown under the bus. It really rubs me the wrong way.

            Not that I am saying that the UK is perfect in any sense, far from it. Just paying the dues for what turned out to be a much better life, at least for me. Of course with the US oil, grabbing the baton of IC powering it into the petroleum era.

            What do I know, however it certainly feels wrong.

            It is what it is.

          • Harry McGibbs says:

            “Scotland has as good a chance in the EU as the others to outpace UK.”

            From an energy standpoint, Scotland’s future does not look bright, alas, unless you buy into the idea that we will be the Saudi Arabia of wind.

            We’ve closed our coal stations and will soon be down to our last nuclear power station. Plus the North Sea oil and gas fields are in their 22nd year of declining production and barely profitable at today’s prices.

            “The Scottish government now has a huge problem with its energy policy: more imported gas will be burnt to keep the lights on. Renewables on their own won’t do that.”


            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Pot, kettle.

            • Harry McGibbs says:

              Yes, but you are making the case that the pot will outpace the kettle.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Like all of the smaller countries in northern Europe that do better than UK – without their own self-sufficient energy supply. Scotland is better positioned than most of them energy-wise.

              If you want to live in England then why do you not just move back there?

            • Harry McGibbs says:

              Mirror on the Wall, for someone who claims objectivity (second only to Gail’s), you are very easily riled by matters pertaining to the future of the UK.

              Why not play your hand and let us know from whence these passions stem? What is the nature of that bee lurking in your bonnet?

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              That is all in your imagination and a lame attempt at personal hostility, princess.

            • Harry McGibbs says:

              Well, as responses go, perhaps that is preferable to an interminable ramble about Nietzsche.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Harry, try to remember that this is not an episode of East Enders where everyone screams at each other.

              You have already conceded the adult debate with this personal nonsense and I have no interest in your tantrum or in your personal nastiness.

              I suggest that you do yourself a favour and leave it at that. It is not me that you are making look bad.

            • Harry McGibbs says:

              I wouldn’t presume to make a judgement there but it is you and not me who tends to be a nexus for drama in the comments section. Your feathers are too easily ruffled, Mirror.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Oh do try to act your age and give it up.

            • there is a law that governs all nations:

              If a nation cannot produce sufficient indigenous energy within its borders to satisfy the aspirations of its people, it must beg, buy, borrow or steal it from elsewhere, or sink back to the median level of existence allowed by its own energy resources.


              scream in protest as much as you want, or apply it to any country you like, and it fits.

              certainly, the ‘law’ can be hidden and ignored for decades, as in the USA until 1970, or the UK till 1914. The reality of it might take 50 years or more to kick in, but it is unforgiving, and certain.

              In humantime, 50 years is ‘forever’. In earthtime that means your lights just get flicked off.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Money buys energy, yes well spotted.

              “scream in protest as much as you want”

              That seems an odd thing to say.

              This is not an episode of East Enders, so let us try not to prolong the public spectacle.

          • neil says:

            Half of those born in Ireland in the 20 th century emigrated. The Irish republic has only been a success of a sort for the last 25 years of its existence, which itself includes a collapse in 2008. Corporation tax relief means the economy is riding on the success of the multinationals, a one time only route to wealth not available to Scotland, and maybe not a reliable basis for the future in Ireland either, indigenous industry having shrunk since the 1980s.

            It seems you’re prepared to risk another Clearances for this pie in the sky fantasy of an independent Scotland.
            Go ahead and risk it all for austerity on a whole different dimension and a large disaffected minority who want nothing to do with independence. It’s a cult – one day you read this new Scotland will be rich from oil, the oil industry already having contracted significantly, the next it’ll be a leader in green energy – why isn’t it already? Is the wind going to blow harder once you’ve got your independence?

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Sure ‘pie in the sky’ like an independent Ireland, which is doing much better than UK, like all of the smaller countries in northern Europe.

              The British Empire is long gone and countries are integrated into the EU these days. If England chose to leave the EU then that is its look out.

              Your permission is not needed and you can have a massive cry when the vote goes against you in May.

            • neil says:

              For some reason, I can’t reply to your post below, but it makes no difference to me what way you choose to disrupt your lives. I’ve spent my life in Northern Ireland listening to political buffoonery and worse, and I can recognize a fantasy.
              I do admire your certainty though – I’ll be positioned to gamble on the opposite.

            • I agree. The process of disintegration of global economy is painful. There is this illusion that independent states will do better. This is how human dissipative structures divide, I guess. They need to find a way to split into smaller units.

              Brexiters also imagined the ‘better world’. The truth is much harder to swallow and much more disappointing.

              The same will be Scotland fate, IMO. Of course there are advantages from staying in EU. Big market, no duties, no border hassle, etc.

              Leaving UK is leaving your neighbours and brothers since centuries. And this will end badly for both sides. As the old saying in my native language goes:

              The accord builds things, the discord brings ruin.

    • Galloway can go and eat shit. England just gets what it has sown before

  17. Z says:

    I still see you guys going on about one of the biggest hoaxes of all time with covid.

    When are you guys going to wake up?

    You are getting PsyOped to death lol.

    Kinda like how Norman believes that we went to the moon and the official story of 9/11 is accurate.

    This is a deliberate dismantling of the current US Empire and Petro-Dollar System.

    Are you missing the looting by the US Elites running the FED, Treasury, Corporations, Hedge Funds, Senate, Congress, etc?

    This is very similar to the ending of the Soviet Union except it is going to be magnitudes worse for the US and other nations that are connected to it.

    • Ed says:

      The looting is obvious. China Joe giving Taiwan to China is obvious but beyond that I am not seeing the dismantling.

      • Robert Firth says:

        Ed, if China indeed takes Taiwan (as seems likely), do you think the Gulf states will continue to trust the US to protect them? No: they will jump into Chain’a expanding sphere of influence. That means the end of the petrodollar, the end of the dollar as an international reserve currency, and the collapse of US influence worldwide.

        Remember, the US thinks in terms of the next weekly news cycle; the Middle Kingdom thinks in terms of centuries.

      • Kowalainen says:

        Half of the EU is in Taiwan begging for semiconductors for the stalled production lines. German auto mfg in particular.

        Nope, ain’t gonna happen if the CCP cronies are allowed to invade. TSMC would be blown to smithereens by the Taiwanese day 1. Then the inbred EU sociopath muppets would get some serious issues with just about everything more complicated than a stone.

      • Lidia17 says:

        Biden’s EO to let China back into the US electricity infrastructure?
        (just one example)

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      yes Z.

      in the 2030s, it will be worse.

      • VFatalis says:

        You’re being too optimistic David. Give it a few more weeks and you’ll understand that the situation is deteriorating faster than you can conceive.

        • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

          of course I’m too optimistic.

          but I’ll take a few more weeks.

          bAU for a few more weeks, baby!

    • Tim Groves says:

      Norman say’s he’s had the vax. So he’s effectively taken public stance that makes it very difficult for him ever to wake up to the Covid scam.

      “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”

      ― Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark

      • Fast Eddy says:

        It appears that the real issues with The Trojan Horse Vax…. do not manifest until your body encounters future viruses including the common cold…..

        I still recommend getting the jab…. better to die in your sleep than with a bad guy stomping on your face and shouting squeal like a pig….

        Vaccine-induced Spike Antibodies: Havoc on the Lungs

        When the coronavirus vaccine is injected, the mRNA contains “instructions” for building the spike protein that has been identified on the surface of the SARS-CoV2 virus. The cell’s reverse transcriptase enzymes are called into action, leading to the mass production of the spike (S) protein, the protein thought to play a vital role in its infectivity.

        However, is this a good thing?

        The 2019 study by Liu, Li et al, “Anti-spike IgG antibody causes severe acute lung injury by skewing macrophage responses during acute SARS-CoV infection” is worthy of your time to read and study.

        The investigation was undertaken to study the effect vaccine-induced, spike-protein antibodies have on preventing SARS-CoV infections and to examine the possible effect the spike-protein antibodies have on the immune system.

        What the researchers discovered was startling.



        • Minority Of One says:

          If I understand what these two papers are saying correctly, it is well-known (because it has been researched already and the results published) that mRNA vaccines are deadly. We should expect a lot of mRNA-induced deaths over the coming weeks / months / years. Is the medical establishment in the USA getting mRNA vaccines as well?

          • Ed says:

            Some are ad some are not. I image an honest survey is impossible as some will not take it but say they did take it to protect themselves. Doctor A inoculates doctor B and signs the vax passport, but in facts injects a cotton ball. Then doctor B returns the favor.

        • Yorchichan says:

          Knowing like the Florida doctor Gregory Michael that you are inevitably going to die within days or weeks because your platelet count has dropped to zero sounds like a horrible way to go to me.

          This article on pathogenic priming is good:


          There are reports now from care homes all over the world that had zero covid-19 deaths until vaccinations commenced, yet suddenly residents started dying of covid-19 shortly after being vaccinated. If I were you, Norman, I’d quit now while you are (hopefully) ahead. Remember, it’s the second (larger) dose that is the most dangerous. Do a bit of research at least.

          • Slow Paul says:

            In the nursery home where I work, 23 residents took the (first) vaccine and 3 died within a week or two. The rest experienced no side effects at all. Obviously these people had serious underlying illnesses, but it will be interesting to see what the next round brings.

        • That is certainly a worrying article.

  18. Ed says:

    This article finally names the extreme nature of where we are at

    Based upon history, the ultimate resolution will not be based on compromise, civility, persuasion, or nonviolent means. Our world will be shaken to its very foundation and transformed in unknowable ways over the next decade. Winter has arrived with a ferocity born of the deceptions of powerful men, and we will need to marshal all our strength and fortitude to survive the coming tempests. The fury of the Crisis will eventually exhaust itself and result in a positive or destructive aftermath. History offers no guidance or assurances as to the outcome. That will be entirely up to us. Godspeed and good luck.

    • Ed says:

      There are wealthy, powerful, sociopath, globalist oligarchs who constitute the real power in this world and unless they are confronted and defeated, the outcome of this Fourth Turning will result in a dark future for humanity and the final obliteration of our Constitution. There is no way to avoid the coming conflict. Sides must be chosen. You will not be able to sit this one out. They will come for you, whether you like it or not.

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        yes TPTB.

        as a gambler, I would bet on them.

        so also as a wise gambler should do when the odds are stacked against him, I indeed will sit this one out.

        though essentially many/most of us are insiders with a vested interest in TPTB prolonging the system

        bAU in IC until the 2030s, baby!

    • I am sure the current situation will not end well. Exactly how it ends is not as clear to me.

      We have to take advantage of whatever we can do now.

  19. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    I found this dead on and George Gammon nailed it
    George Gammon: THIS IS A WARNING – The Huge Disconnect Between The Stock Market And The Real Economy

    The Fed by not letting markets go down will create a tinder of discontents of the have nots

    • The Fed is indeed keeping the market from crashing. It is pretty clear that markets around the world are inflated.

      We certainly have discontent around the world, but I think that is mostly because of wage disparity. Not being able to afford a home is only a small part of the problem.

      It doesn’t seem like it can go on very long this way. It is just a question of how comes to an end.

      • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

        At the end George Gammon espouses your frequent line… affordability issue….when assets become out of reach for those (i.e. young adults) and such , there will be a response in the public domain of discontents..
        Rival unrest.
        To me, seems the Feds so called “temporary” measures are desperate measures to keep the system going, at least, for the wealthy class the 🤑 c!ass is outnumbered and we shall see how this all plays out.

        • Robert Firth says:

          “Rise like Lions after slumber
          In unvanquishable number–
          Shake your chains to earth like dew
          Which in sleep had fallen on you–
          Ye are many — they are few.”

          Percy Bysshe Shelley, “The Mask of Anarchy”

  20. Tom says:

    I spent a lot of years learning from the late Jay Hanson about these issues. Jay left us in April 19 after a wonderful life successfully living at the apex of IC. Jay always thought the elites would try some sort of bioweapon to thin the population when push comes to shove. Norman asks how would they be able to avoid the blowback? Of course they can’t, they are going to die just like the rest of us. But human nature says they will try. FE has it right, Mr. DNA rules. The Davos folks who have the power and the money will fight to survive. They know what is coming.

    I asked Jay once is it conceivable that intelligent life could evolve on some other planet that wouldn’t be doomed with selfish genes like we are. He said no, whenever species die off it creates a competition to see who can leave the most genes in the next generation.

    Norman, you are doing well. You have 4 great grand children and two more on the way. That’s why we are so successful, we breed even when the situation looks dire. I know for a fact that no creatures running around in 100 years will have my genes. I am headed for the dust bin of evolution.

    • That is interesting that Jay Hanson thought that the elites would try to reduce the population. Do you know of any references he used in this regard?

      • Tom says:

        That was just his opinion based on years of research into human evolution Gail. Our species went through countless bottlenecks and dieoffs when we were evolving. The ones that made it through, and became our ancestors, were the ones who ignored or denied harsh realities and out-competed (and in many cases killed) their rivals to pass on their genes. If we don’t go extinct there will be more bottlenecks and dieoffs (nothing like this one) in the future. We aren’t going to change.

        • Thanks!

          “The ones that made it through, and became our ancestors, were the ones who ignored or denied harsh realities and out-competed (and in many cases killed) their rivals to pass on their genes.”

          They weren’t the ones who sat in their ivory towers and said, “I won’t have children, so that the world won’t become overpopulated.”

      • Lidia17 says:

        Intentional population reduction is part of his overshoot loop (note that his dieoff.org site no longer works, but someone has recreated the content at dieoff.com). From the home page:

        Step 1. Individuals and groups evolved a bias to maximize fitness by maximizing power, which requires over-reproduction and/or over-consumption of natural resources (overshoot), whenever systemic constraints allow it. Differential power generation and accumulation result in a hierarchical group structure.

        Step 2. Energy is always limited, and overshoot eventually leads to decreasing power available to some members of the group, with lower-ranking members suffering first.

        Step 3. Diminishing power availability creates divisive subgroups within the original group. Low-rank members will form subgroups and coalitions to demand a greater share of power from higher-ranking individuals, who will resist by forming their own coalitions to maintain power.

        Step 4. Violent social strife eventually occurs among subgroups who demand a greater share of the remaining power.

        Step 5. The weakest subgroups (high or low rank) are either forced to disperse to a new territory, are killed, enslaved, or imprisoned.

        Step 6. Go back to step 1.

        Seems like we are in steps 4-5.

        I also found the article below at the new site. A quotation:

        In less than 20 years, the self-regulating market system will have “run out of gas” and vanished. With the market system gone, the ruling elites will fall back on the good old-fashioned means of control: a police state. In the US alone, 200 million guns in private ownership guarantee that this police state will quickly devolve into rebellion and anarchy.

        If the anarchy scenario were to reach its natural conclusion, the global elites would be eliminated by the angry masses. Those who managed to escape would die more miserably than the poor since they are unsuited for day-to-day survival because they lived their lives like queen bees.

        But when the above scenario seems inevitable, the elites will simply depopulate most of the planet with a bioweapon. [[39]] When the time comes, it will be the only logical solution to their problem. It’s a first-strike tactic that leaves the built-infrastructure and other species in place and allows the elites to perpetuate their own genes into the foreseeable future: “War is a male reproductive strategy. All that is needed for the strategy to evolve, is that aggressors fight and win more often than they lose”. [[40]]


        • Kowalainen says:

          Yes, well of course you take your kin with you. However, not as per your genetics, but rather per discernible and desirable traits.

          A choice between my rather clever colleagues (battle buddies) and my quite boneheaded relatives. My battle buddies, easily.

          It is how evolutionary traits are shaped in and of sentient beings.

          It must clearly be vastly superior than any other form of evolution since it is concerned with selfishness on an intellectual and industrious level. Smart ass and vicious battle buddies for sure can advance your genes more than raw numbers of useless eaters.

        • I was able to find one of the references related to endnote [39} above. http://cryptome.info/0001/bioweap.htm

          The title is The Bioweaponeers: In the last few years, Russian scientists have invented the world’s deadliest plagues. Have we learned about this too late to stop it?

          The article talks about what has been learned about the Soviet Union bioweapons program from scientist who came to the US following the breakup of the SU. It becomes clear that the SU was already splicing together viruses back in 1990-1991. Thus, we are dealing with a 30 year old technology.

          From the article:

          “Russia has researched the genetic alteration of smallpox,” Alibek told me. “In 1990 and 1991, we engineered a smallpox at Vector. It was found that several areas of the smallpox genome” — the DNA — “can be used for the introduction of some foreign genetic material. The first development was smallpox and VEE. VEE, or Venezuelan equine encephalitis, is a brain virus. It causes a severe headache and near-coma, but it is generally not lethal. Alibek said that the researchers spliced VEE into smallpox. The result was a recombinant chimera virus. In ancient Greek myth, the chimera was a monster made from parts of different animals. Recombination means the mixing of genes from different organisms. “It is called smallpox-VEE chimera,” Alibek said. It could also be called Veepox. Under a microscope, Alibek said, the Veepox looks like smallpox, but it isn’t.

          According to Alibek, there was one major technical hurdle to clear in the creation of a workable Veepox chimera, and he says that it took the Vector researchers years to solve the problem. They solved it by finding more than one place in the smallpox DNA where you could insert new genes without decreasing smallpox’s ability to cause disease. Many researchers feel that the smallpox virus doesn’t cause disease in animals in any way that is useful for understanding its effects on humans. Alibek says that the Russians tested Veepox in monkeys, but he says that he doesn’t know the results.

    • TIm Groves says:

      Jay Hanson is no longer with us. But his website is still there (last updated 2012) and it provides a lot of insight on peak oil-related matters.


    • thank you

      I think I am due a bit of collective gratitude for withering the bloom of my youth for the benefit of humankind, making sure our species didn’t die out.
      Withering always seems such a good idea at the time.

      I think we bought our first TV after the second wither. Life looked pretty good back then. I was a trainee millionaire, but I failed my finals. (too busy withering you see)
      Instead I decided to become a word millionaire after I got my first Mac.

      Verbal diarrhoea is another incurable (and highly contagious) terminal condition.

      I still await the information on this ‘bioweapon’ though. Whether it was Hanson’s conspiracy or one of many others.

      as I pointed out before, without the proletariat, ‘wealth’ evaporates quite literally into nothing.

      That single sentence establishes the idiocy of the concept. Yet it is universally ignored, because it is the grim reaper of the conspiracists, cutting swathes through their collective nonsenses. But that’s no deterrent. ‘They’ will create a world just for rich people, we will all be dead..

      Does no one stand back and think?


      Nevertheless the cabal at Davos, (isn’t it virtual this year?), is sending out legions of disease spreaders, to poison reservoirs, smear toilet door handles with covid, cut brake lines on cars, put sugar in aircraft fuel tanks, releasing millions of rats infected with bubonic plague, sneeze on people in trains.

      And to save the best bit till last—take a cyanide pill when they’ve finished, so no one will find out.

      Which is what the moonscammers and WTC demolition experts did. (but don’t tell anyone, it’s still a secret)

      • Kowalainen says:

        As I have explained, it is the holy trinity of IC that runs the show.

        The nerdy artisanry with their contraptions of technological omnipotence, haven’t so far met a single one that bears the trait of the proletariat embroiled in drudgery

        The MIC to project those devices onto others, robbing natural resources and stealing ideas

        The owners playing the game

        The proletariat is the machine

        The rest is more or less useless (in contemporary BAU)

        That is the state of affairs

    • Ed says:

      Ted Turner has large tracts of land including Buffalo herds. I image he and his loyal staff and families will isolate in the case of a “bad one”. They will ride out on horse to harvest need food.

    • Furthermore, the vaccination process won’t start for the general population until the middle of 2021. It is a long way away.

      I notice that New Zealand’s electricity production/consumption has been very close to flat since about 2010. If population is growing at all, this likely is a problem

      All of its oil products would seem to be imported. Its oil consumption has been rising since 2009 or 2010, presumably from all of the travel to/from New Zealand. Cutting back on travel would perhaps keep down the amount of imported oil products required.

      • Robert Firth says:

        Gail, if NZ still has to import oil and other things, their borders cannot be closed. Those supply ships have crews, and even if the crews are not allowed to leave (giving them an excellent incentive never to return), what about the rodents? And even bats have been known to roost aboard ships. Their policy is unsustainable. And who knows how virulent the virus that inevitably leaks in will be, to a population with no immune defence whatsoever.

        • Robert Firth says:

          Sigh. Update at at “0900 on 28 January” (no time zone given, so I suppose this is NZ time, GMT+13) there are 67 new cases reported “at the border”. Dyke, finger, little boy.

    • Lidia17 says:

      Strangely, however, the “vaccines” have not been tested as to whether they prevent or reduce transmission.

      We’re just being subjected to a particularly evil version of Calvinball.

  21. I heard that in places like France, one was allowed out of the door for 30 minutes a day, one person, last spring.

    We might be doing that in USA too

  22. JoJo says:

    Gail I have a request. What seems to be the end of floating storage seems a very significant change to my simple mind. Is the analysis and implications worth a article?

  23. avocado says:

    It seems that someone here wrote a book where the deaths of Trump and the Pope are mentioned. Indon’t know nothing about it, but I get it as a symbolic death. It’s the Ragnarok, the death of the gods, id est the death of the powerful and important. Every new day there is less confidence in the hleaders, in the values (a quarter of people here recently said at a poll they believe earth is flat; but it’s not they became idiots suddenly, they don’t really believe it, they just say it as a way to express their lack of confidence in the institutions -among which, science-, which is very deep). People loose trust

    We have Ragnarok on one side (which is supposed to be followed by some kind of re birth), and in the other some Jews believe that, as is prophesized in the Tanak, at the end of times all people on earth will aknowledge that the god of Israel is the only real one. Time will tell

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      there is a mountain of evidence that all gods and all religions are fictional creations.

      also that humans are merely one species and are due for extinction within a few million years.

      time will tell.

      • Perhaps. Or perhaps all religions have insights into some basic knowledge that is revealed in different ways. Clearly, religions serve some basic purposes, or their use wouldn’t be so widespread. Perhaps it is the erroneous view that all religious must be the same that gets people into the belief that they must be fictional creations.

        We now have the “Renewables can save us” religion hiding the real problems that the world is up against. This religion claims that man can save himself and the ecosystem by dumping fossil fuels and adopting renewable energy instead. This religion now seems pervasive.

        • Mirror on the wall says:

          “We now have the “Renewables can save us” religion hiding the real problems that the world is up against.”

          No doubt religions can serve some ‘use’ relative to their users according to the sort of people that they are and what they ‘need’ (or think that they need) in order to manage their existence and their instincts.

          Their religions may reveal more about them, their peculiarities and their own limits than they do about anything grander. Or about their potential for better.

          No doubt religions can be a front for plain stupidity, gullibility and arrogance and for the self-harm that people or even a people finds unavoidable according to its own peculiarities and limits. Or it can orientate a still healthy, natural, honest people to expand.

          Everyone seems to have been roped into a downfall these days.

          All is changeable in this world, including peoples and religions. It is a part of how Nature gets rid of what has become inherently disordered. If humanity is due a fundamental shake up then that can only be a good thing from the macro perspective. Out with the old, in with the new.

          So, definitely a rebirth but not of the same, always of something newer.

          • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

            if there is a severe collapse of IC soon, with a 99.9+% die off, then among the pockets of survivors, there should be very little standing in the way of the resurgence of the majority religion of each (small) society.

            all they would need would be one or a few books of their scriptures, and enough literate persons to teach their young to read and continue their tradition.

            in post-collapse conditions, there probably will be no corresponding survival of science to counter their fictional traditions.

            collapse means a return to ancient conditions and ancient religions.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Well, your crystal ball seems to be transmitting the picture of the future pretty clearly tonight.

              I would say, take a look at what the ancient Greeks and Romans understood about the world in much more ancient conditions, certainly nothing resembling Christianity.

              Modern physics is not needed to understand how the world basically works. No one can predict today what ideological forms peoples will take in the future.

              The old tribes and peoples are coming to an end, certainly in the West. New peoples will be new beginnings – out with the old, in with the new.

              They will develop ideologies that reflect the sort of peoples that they are, the health of their instincts and their honesty with regard to Nature. The old rubbish will likely be of new use to them.

              But, no crystal balls here.

            • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

              I’m just guessing also.

              but since these fictional scriptures exist in the billions of copies right now, I am guessing plenty of copies will survive collapse and become the foundations for resurgences of these invented religions.

            • It is amazing how many different religions can be put together using the same scriptures. The new religions will almost certainly be somewhat different, even if they use the same religious texts.

            • avocado says:

              I don’t think the religions of today would fit a post collapse order, especially not the abrahamic religions; perhaps the most cyclical ones, as those from India

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              I have yet to encounter anyone who professes the moral teachings of Jesus let alone follows them. The religion is reduced to calling oneself a ‘Christian’ and thus being ‘saved’.

              Which is probably a ‘good’ thing; no one, no people could have ever survived if they had actually ‘followed’ Jesus and ‘took up their cross’.

              The churches make no effort to imitate Jesus but then, they do not need to. The ‘name’ and the pretence are enough to satisfy people.

              It is pretty silly really, especially when it passes itself off as ‘gravity’ in ‘serious matters’. But such is the gravity of people.

              So yes, one name, many versions.

            • There are a wide variety of Christian belief systems/ denominations. If you think “The religion is reduced to calling oneself a ‘Christian’ and thus being ‘saved’,” you are kidding yourself. This is true of some, but not others.

        • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

          yes, the Renewables religion is just another fictional creation.

          “Clearly, religions serve some basic purposes, or their use wouldn’t be so widespread.”

          and I agree with this also, since it’s been reasoned good enough here at OFW that religion fits well in the ideas about societies and their competition for resources.

          • Tim Groves says:

            I suspect that without the prior evolution/development and universalization of religious thinking, the subsequent evolution of scientific/rational thinking would never have been possible.

            Notice that even today, a lot of us are not very good at scientific/rational thinking.

            I also suspect that scientific/rational is essentially a veneer above religious thinking, and that in the absence of the former to provide a firm base, the latter would prove too flimsy to function in all weathers.

            • avocado says:

              Yes Tim, you are entirely right

              As for the renewables religion, it was alive for very few years, but now it’s an empty carcass only relevant to its priests (even California governor acknowledges it doesen’t work), and it will become more and more obvious. Another dead god, shortlived

              As for future religions, if there are humans left, we don’t know, but it’s not obvious that they would be scriptural, because writing almost didn’t existed in stone age

            • Kowalainen says:

              Science in its purest essence could be considered as the phoneix of all dogmatic religion with the exception of Buddhism, that for the most part is occupied with wrestling suffering into nothingness.

              That is of course a solution, as is the eradication of all life from planet earth. Somehow it got this flaw that I cannot quite accept.

              I throw them into the Nietzsche bucket of wrangling in the mental swirl of rapacious primate hallucinations and shenanigans.

              No, there has to be a firm ground to stand on, a set of hard immutable rules. Lucky for you I will now proceed, once again, to type them out:

              #1 Mother Earth is the supreme ruler of all
              #2 In Her evolution we put our trust, it’s mindless brilliance is always right
              #3 You are wrong, see #1 and #2 and meditate on your failings
              #4 If you feel superior to another being, see #3
              #5 When you feel insignificant, wimpy and weak, see #1, then Harden the Fuck Up
              #6 When you feel unstoppable, see #1, then Chill the Fuck Out
              #7 These rules shall be obeyed under all circumstances, deviations will be severely punished
              #8 If in doubt, see rules #1-7 for advice

              Easy enough.


        • Robert Firth says:

          Thank you, Gail. I find it very hard to believe there can be a “mountain of evidence” that something does not exist. Rather reminds me of Bertrand Russell’s “orbiting teapot” fallacy.

          As for me, I believe in the gods whom I have met, and am willing to extend provisional belief to those whom I have not met.

    • Mirror on the wall says:


  24. Yoshua says:

    Why wouldn’t use ivermectin and vitamin D if they really help? No one can care for millions of damaged people.

    Are they just in responding and don’t know what to do? Do they need scientific proof before using drugs?

    I read that the most common medicine used in the US hospitals against Covid is asperin.

    • We are dealing with different parts of the economy warring against each other in the fight for resources. Consumers (especially poor consumers) would like inexpensive solutions that work. If they “cut the high-priced physicians” out, so much the better.

      Fauci and friends are trying to get funds for high price medicines and vaccines. Universities and colleges definitely want this, because it gives young people hope that there will be jobs in the future in this area. Ever-more expensive drugs and immunizations to keep people “safe” from everything. More money for research in this area.

      There are fairly high fixed costs involved in developing a new drug or vaccine. In the past, the medical industry has developed vaccines of various sorts, only to discover that the disease went away by itself, or no one wanted to buy it. I think a big objection to the low-priced drugs is that they will cut into the markets for high priced vaccines and medicines.

      Even the emphasis on “flattening the curve” indirectly helps the vaccine industry. The more people who are kept aside, without the disease, the more possible vaccine buyers there will be.

      • RICHARD Marleau says:

        BINGO! winer winner chicken dinner! Spot on. The various players don’t even know or see the bigger picture goor humanity or society just hoping to maintain or grow their piece of the pie.

  25. Yoshua says:

    Sweden has 500,000 confirmed Covid cases…11,000 deaths…and 160,000 long Covid.

    It’s not the death rate, but the damage the virus does.

    • Ivermectin is reported to help with “long COVID.” If countries didn’t close their eyes to inexpensive treatments, COVID problems could be greatly reduced.

      • Tim Groves says:

        Gail, you sound like a conspiracist.

        Welcome to the club. In the end, any reasonable person who honestly looks into the issues will be forced to admit to themselves that the people in control don’t have the best interests of the controlled at heart and that the drug industry is run by a bunch of Harry Limes.

  26. VFatalis says:

    In France there is now a ministerial circular asking citizens to report anyone suspected as a conspirationnist.

    Spring and summer will be very hot regardless of the weather I expect

    • I could do that job—easy

      then being corrupt, I could make even more money by taking bribes not to turn conspirators in to the government

      • JoJo says:

        Ill give you 2 pence. Its all I have! Please oh please oh do show mercy m’lord.

      • doomphd says:

        careful Norman, they may have a lamp post designated for you.

        • JoJo says:

          After the work is finished you put your tools away.

          All part of good housekeeping.

          Normon is OFW member in good standing.

          Just like the rest of us.

          If you dont want somthing around you cant keep its reflection.

          Its existance continues in that reflection.

          You always become what you hate. Thats why its best not to hate.

          • I thought the undead didn’t have reflections

            • JoJo says:

              Norman you do understand that by creating a assertion simultaneously create a equal and opposite assertion? This why the extremely effective tool of self affirmation must come from truth from the heart. It must come from a place other than words to be effective.

              You can say words about reality all you want but unless they are practiced from the essence they actually create the anti thesis.

              Oftentimes creating a absurd anti thesis is used to create the thesis but the anti thesis doesn’t need to be absurd. Whether the thesis is asserted in a thesis or anti thesis doesnt really matter. The assertion of either creates both.

              From a political standpoint this fact is used widely to manipulate. A antithesis is created with much negative emotional content associated around it. The true thesis is now not subject to examination.

              From a consciousness standpoint it demonstrates why we simply shouldn’t abide in a particular state when words are asserted. This is the crux of what is occurring. Do people trust their hearts or the extremism where the polar opposites are one and the same.

              The true message of a communication is often masked by content. When a communication is encountered i like to look at how it makes me feel. While how it makes me feel may be secondary a result of the truth, in political communications it is often the true intent of the content.

              Norman If you look at your communications on this board they are often threatening. You cloak them with content but the true message is shut up or else. In many cases the message is not even cloaked with content that much. Lamposts and such. The true content is quite apparent.

              I could guess as to why this is but that would be conjecture. Your comments do present a sticky wicket. If one accepts them they are accepting the forcefulness of a bully. If one reacts to them the anti thesis may well be desired outcome in terms of political manipulation. Its pretty sophisticated what you do here.

              So a task is presented for me. That your words create dilemma means i must change. Where they touch my pain and reactivness is mine. I own that.

              When you deal with words you deal with power. Its not really that easy because we are not trained to see them as abstracts as the representations. That leaves us enormously vulnerable as humans. Countering that is the creative essence we hold in our hearts which senses truth intuitively. This has enormous power when we fall back on love and beauty. Love and beauty is our natural state if we practice it. Words are rendered a more healthy thing by practicing a state of love and beauty.

              This is why hate is such a stupid thing. You always become what you hate. Its a very sophisticated trap but it is easily defeated by practice. Every action should be initiated from love and beauty place. Actions have power coming from that place. People do understand right from wrong but they disregard that because they are manipulated by thesis or counter thesis. It can difficult coping with those who have chosen the power of words to manipulate. They are often quite threataned by the idea that they possess beauty. Very Very hard to love oneself because we are all such screwups one and all.

              One of the primary falsehoods of our culture is that force against a bully is justified force. How can it be when you accept the bullys theme when you implement it? THats accepts his disease. Every aspect of a bullys behavior leads to a end that is forced. If you cower that is forced. If you stop him through using force that is forced. You have accepted his program. A program that was inserted with purpouse. True solutions lie elsewhere.

              Normon you dont care about the issues here. Whatever your reason for being here is its not to share and experience. I accept that. I accept you Norman. I accept the human Normon that lives and loves. I do not accept your wierd ass programs.

              I certainly am no exception as i am a human. I find it hard to love myself and to love others. These times of course have potential perhaps even are even fated for great suffering. At times i dwell in that space. I also see potential for growth that did not exist in BAU that exists now. I do make those three assertions. BAU is past tense. Suffering is fated. There is potential for our species and it lies in our putting our attention on our hearts.

            • a lot to respond the there Jojo. a bit complex in the thinking maybe

              Speaking as an old hand on here, the most important thing to accept is that we only have words—no body language, no facial expression, no subtlety of vocal tone. no ‘sense’ of nonsense

              Watching some go into rages and general upset tells me that they do not realise that. Instead the interpretations of what is said, and how it is said lie entirely in the mind of the recipient, and they, with some exceptions, do not have the ability or inclination to recognise the problem.

              Anything other than unquestioning agreement is taken as a personal ‘pistols at dawn’ affront.

              Person to person, this would not arise, because most of us are attuned to speech and body language as part of everyday life.

              Whereas in OFW you might have an ‘image’ of me as bloody minded, whereas someone else, reading the same nonsense, might picture me as an idiot, infidel, all round know-all or wise beyond my years. (not many left)
              None of which are correct, well apart from the infidel bit.

              I confess often to having no conventional academic background.

              But I do appear to have a modest skill with words. They can fly and hurt, or do the exact opposite. I do try for the latter, especially in circumstances that are not of this place. A place where force is unknown to me.

              The ‘forcefulness of a bully’ I resent. But it is a resentment where I recognise your thinking was formed by words I must have used wrongly . Your words intimate that you might have been bullied at some point, in some context. I regret that, but I can’t help it.

              Quote>>>>>Every aspect of a bullys behavior leads to a end that is forced. If you cower that is forced. If you stop him through using force that is forced. You have accepted his program. A program that was inserted with purpouse.<<<<<

              They are words I find unfortunate, stomach turning and scary , but on your behalf.
              I have never been there. I sense you might have. I sympathise, but please don't overlay that onto me

              I do not attempt tp program people, under any circumstances. People are what they are.


              But when someone presents me with 'evidence' that can be shown to be nothing more than oft repeated and regurgitated opinion, I say so.

              I try to say so with a gentle humour if I can. Deep belief can hurt in the extraction I find. So I tend to leave it where it is. Such things either grow out or fester forever. Not my indigestion problem. Trying to shove it down my throat however might invoke a response that could be interpreted as 'bullying'. Vomiting might be more accurate.

              My jokey way winds some people up. I know that. Tough. Most of the controversial stuff is only worth laughter anyway (including my own). You cannot be ssssserious as Mc Enroe used to say.
              I do not touch on any subject that I feel might have some personal resonance. (I can't always know that of course)

              But when I'm fed with hoaxes, conspiracies and scams, in an endless stream and expected to swallow such daftness, while the shade of conspiracy alters over time, and new ones appear on my event horizon, I confess to using words as missiles to shoot them down. I use logic as a focus, target practice improves my aim. Losing my cool would throw my aim off. So I don't. Ever. You may have noticed that.

              Bullies 'lose it'—think about that. You have never seen me do that.


              As to my reason for being here, I most certainly do care about the issues involved. I have bet a lot of offspring on our future.
              As I've pointed out above, I also care about issues not being clouded with irrelevant nonsense. Gates doctoring vaccines, Soros doing watever, a cabal of people intent on killing most of us off.

              Denying it makes me bloody minded and stupid. Fair enough.

              I've been commenting on here for a long long time. Back in the day, it was about exchanging thoughts on what was important in a broad sense—which Ive always cared very much about. Gail, quite rightly, allows uncensored opinion on anything.

              But since to advent of 'social media' we have been involved in a different situation, which I would label as 'Conspiracies R Us'.

              bully or not, you have never seen me take aim at anything other than conspiracies or wacky politicians/ wishful sciences and economics.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Word association … Norman… not particularly curious… intellectual lightweight (who likes to think he is a heavyweight)

            • best compliment you could pay me Eddy


            • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:


        • you’re waaaaayyyy out of date

          most of those old hanging lamp posts have long gone

          I think theres a few left outside parliament in London

          • Robert Firth says:

            Norman, lamp posts left outside parliament are exactly where they are needed. Yes, Virginia, there is a God.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Sounds a bit harsh, just send them packing.

            • I thought that too Robert

              after I’d posted the comment

              The only other place with them is the road leading up to the Shakespeare Theatre in Stratford, where almost every capital city in the world has donated one of its original lamp posts.

              (just a non-contentious snippet for a change)

      • Tim Groves says:

        Class, today we are going to look at the meanings of two very different words that many people get confused about.

        conspiracist kən-spîr′ə-sĭst►
        n. One holding a conspiracy theory.
        n. A person who puts forward a conspiracy theory.

        con•spir•a•tor kən-spîr′ə-tər►
        n. One who engages in a conspiracy; a plotter.
        n. A person who conspires or engages in a conspiracy or is concerned in a plot; a joint plotter; specifically, one who conspires with others to commit treason.

        Both of these words come from the same stable:
        con•spire kən-spīr′►
        intransitive verb To plan together secretly to commit an illegal or wrongful act or accomplish a legal purpose through illegal action.
        intransitive verb To join or act together; combine.
        intransitive verb To plan or plot secretly.

        From Middle English conspiren, from Old French conspirer, from Latin conspirare, conspīrō, from con- (combining form of cum (“with”)) + spīrō (“breathe”)

    • Right! Crude in floating storage is being taken down. It is being processed into finished products. These have fallen less then crude oil production. I had the story backward, when I first looked at it.

  27. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    There is opportunity in a crisis, especially if you intentionally created it sarcasm

    China is rehearsing for when it overtakes America
    Analysis by Jill Disis, CNN Business
    Updated 6:28 AM EST, Tue January 26, 2021
    Hong Kong(CNN Business)China wants to lead the global recovery from the pandemic and become more influential on the world stage than ever before. It might just have the momentum — and the confidence — to pull that plan off.

    The world’s second largest economy shrugged off much of the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic last year, and its ability to keep growing while the world crashed into recession could mean its GDP exceeds that of the United States later this decade, years earlier than expected.

    “China emerged from the Covid-19 shock earlier than the rest of the world and authorities are already planning for the long term,” wrote Françoise Huang, senior economist for Asia-Pacific at Euler Hermes, in a report last week titled, “The world is moving East, fast.”

    That’s why investor Jim Rogers decided to move East with his family and all his children learn to speak Mandrin…currently resides in Singapore.
    When their Digital Yuan CB backed $$$, that will be the nail in the coffin to US domination…but, of course, that will lead to some 🎇🎆 military confluct

    • Kowalainen says:

      Someone needs to remind him that the Chinese can’t materialize produce into depleted oil fields. Last time I checked, the CCP don’t posses a magic wand that can spawn petroleum out of nothing. The same of course applies to the US.

      The delusions people fly… They really believe it’s some temporary glitch in the matrix, and then the Chinese will power on into the future giving hope to him and his offspring.

      Oh noes, not gonna happen.

    • Some part of the world economy can perhaps be maintained, if it doesn’t set its sights too high.

      I don’t know whether China can keep going longer than other countries. I think coal, rather than oil, is the base fuel, because it is inexpensive. It is also fairly easy to transport.

      In a way, China is more self-sufficient than a lot of economies. It has quite a bit of coal, if it can keep the price of coal high enough. It does need Taiwan’s chips, however. Perhaps it needs some of Taiwan’s other “know-how” as well. Taiwan isn’t behind the Great Firewall of China, which helps it along, I expect.

      • Robert Firth says:

        Gail, China has nearly run out of cheap coal. The coal is there in the ground, but in remote places where the cost of building infrastructure to get to it, mine it, and transport it back where it’s needed is insupportable.

        Their game plan was to buy coal from Australia, until US interference created a diplomatic impasse. The backup plan is to go to Canada, which seems to be very keen to mine coal as long as it is burned somewhere else, so saving their threadbare “green” credentials. I hope that happens; I have a considerable investment in one of those coal companies. (Sorry, Greta; my extended family will probably need the money)

    • If Saudi Arabia is short on funds, cutting back on oil drilling rigs (as shown in the chart) is way to save. It doesn’t help production. But Saudi Arabia has a planned cutback of 1 million barrels of day, in the name of hopefully raising prices.

  28. The Climate Crisis Is Worse Than You Can Imagine. Here’s What Happens If You Try.

    A climate scientist spent years trying to get people to pay attention to the disaster ahead. His wife is exhausted. His older son thinks there’s no future. And nobody but him will use the outdoor toilet he built to shrink his carbon footprint.

    • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

      Too late now Baby, it’s too late…
      Kathryn Krawczyk
      Mon, January 25, 2021, 5:46 PM
      From The Week

      The world’s ice is melting so fast that sea level rise predictions can’t keep up.
      Surging global ice melt suggests sea level rise predictions are far too conservative

      In the 1990s, the Earth’s ice was melting at a rate of about 760 billion tons per year. That has surged 60 percent to an average of 1.2 trillion tons per year in the 2010s, a study published Monday in the journal The Cryosphere estimates. And as another study published earlier this month in Science Advances makes clear, the problem is feeding into itself.

      Please stay away from. Florida. Too many snow birds are arriving here and buying shore front property

      • tell everybody except the don

      • JesseJames says:

        Looking at the actual ice coverage and concentration data, Antarctica sea ice is above the median levels, while the Arctic sea ice is a bit below.
        Greenland ice melt shows a number of intermediate peaks above the median, as well as some below. The median of course represents an average over many decades. A median does not tell one of how large the typical deviations from the median are that occur EVERY year, both below and above the median.

        Looking at the Great Lakes temps, they look to be below normal by a slight amount with ice pack a tad above to my subjective imagery analysis.

        Doesn’t look like disaster at any rate. When it comes to sea ice, underwater thermal sources have recently been detected underneath the large sea ice packs in Antarctica. Especially where some breakup has been observed. This of course, was blamed on Glabl wooormen, when in fact inquiring minds could understand that CO2 does not control our temps here on earth. Think, underwater volcanoes or extremely large thermal vents erupting lots of heat.
        The said breakup of said ice pack was highly publicized since it fit the climate crisis “scare”, all the while ignoring most of the rest of the massive sea icepacks that was not breaking up.

        Please try to think beyond your scare mongering. Try to understand that there is much going on in the earth and it’s thermal processes.

        • Harry McGibbs says:

          “…the Great Lakes are currently dealing with record low ice…

          “…the Great Lakes total ice coverage right now is sitting at 3.9%… The previous record low for this date was 5% back in 2002.”


          • I wonder how China is doing for ice on its lakes. We heard that it was having an unusually cold winter.

            • Harry McGibbs says:

              Gail, I don’t know but I did read about unusual ice-bubbles forming in a lake in Xinjiang. It has been an unusually cold winter in many places across the northern hemisphere – much of Asia and the Middle East. UAE has been having its coldest winter on record:


              Meanwhile we’ve seen record heat for Jan in Malta, Greece, Turkey, Russia, Georgia… parts of the lower 48 are having their warmest winter on record. Overall, we can say that this is an unusually cold winter though, at least in a 21st century context. La Nina has a hand there.

            • Tim Groves says:

              Drift ice on the Sea of Okhotsk has just reached Hokkaido, eleven days earlier than the season average! And there is still over a month to go before peak ice! We’re doomed, I say, doooooomed!

          • JesseJames says:

            Test to see why I cannot get a post through here.

            • There is often some word in a post that flags it for review. The longer the post, the more likely it is to be flagged.

              WordPress seems to have flags as well, which I cannot figure out. It seems to flag bit chute links, for example.

        • Robert Firth says:

          Norman, it seems that we are once again in agreement. (Next week: pigs fly) I have seen far too much of the selective reporting of global warming: Greenland is losing ice (as it did in the time of Erik the Red, hence the Norse settlements there); shock horror! Antarctica is gaining ice; spike that story!

          Perhaps the most egregious example, and the one that made me a global warming skeptic, came from Canada. That country has temperature measuring stations across its whole territory. Untill a prime minister who wanted green credentials ordered the northern third of them turned off. Presto! Next week Canada was another victim of global warming.

    • Kowalainen says:

      “Peter drives an electric car”

      There it is, right there. The myopia of being oblivious to his extravagant, opulent life in IC while pointlessly worrying about the inevitable.

      No Peter, not enough. Not nearly enough, the suck and drudgery will be magnitudes worse once the CO2 emissions that makes you unhappy subsides.

    • Very Far Frank says:

      That’s one man that needs to read Limits to Growth.

      Once you read it and understand the implications, it’s clear that climate change won’t be a long-term problem.

    • These efforts don’t work, in part because consumer consumption is only a small part of total energy consumption. For example, building and maintaining a road is terribly energy intensive. Having electricity in your home requires a lot of fossil fuel energy consumption. Having schools for the children requires a lot of energy consumption. Building an electric vehicle uses a lot of energy.

  29. why evolution is in denial in some places in USA

    • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

      Boy, that was entertaining! Only in America without the art and display shown by the Spanish….

    • Kowalainen says:

      The apex predator vs the herbivore.

      Or perhaps no.

      A rapacious primate – a deluded flimsy frugivore vs the unhinged fury of a herbivore.


    • Country Joe says:

      Best laugh I’ve had in a year.
      Thanks Norman.

    • Robert Firth says:

      Thank you, Norman. Darwin said we are descended from monkeys, and fundamentalists say we are not. I have always held to the middle position: we have not *evolved* from monkeys.

      • too lazy to look it up in detail

        but I always understood that Darwin said that monkeys and us descended from a common ancestor, splitting about 5m years ago

        • Robert Firth says:

          Of course: I was paraphrasing the fundies, who misreported Darwin as shown. It made for a shorter, neater, and yes a little deceptive epigram. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

      • Kowalainen says:

        Descended? We are for all intents and purposes monkeys. Rapacious primates, with egos the size of a galaxy, big mouths, small brains and no ears.

        • careful—your fellow OFW doomsters will sue you for libel

          • Kowalainen says:

            I assume you would cheer for the rather brutal defenders side?


            • certainly not

              I would merely sit in my tree as an observer, waiting to re establish my genetic line in the evolutionary niche you vacate.

              And of course, pick up your glasses in puzzlement trying to work out how they could stay in situ with no ears to hold them

            • Kowalainen says:

              You reckless opportunist. Seeking a new habitat for your offspring are we?

              *Strikethrough one particular name from the list of character witnesses*


            • well if I don’t grab your niche (sheesh—I sound like Trump there–sorry) then some other life form will, and in 5 million years the world might be a less hospitable place.

              I mean, you wouldn’t want to be responsible for a species of moths that ate people and ignored their clothes

          • Robert Firth says:

            Norman, a small, and I hope, polite request. Could you and Kowalainen please take your endless and pointless debates elsewhere? They are terminally boring.

            • I’ve tried putting messages in bottles, but my knowledge of ocean currents is limited. I never get replies. And chucking them into my local river (100+ miles from the sea) has resulted in fines for littering

              perhaps you could help there, as a much advertised world traveller

              you could on the other hand just press ‘delete’ without opening them—a sort of online version of—if thine eye offend thee–etc etc

              why does pointing out the obvious embarrassment me?
              possibly because I dislike exposing stupidity

  30. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The economic crisis following the coronavirus pandemic has become the worst for almost a century, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres says on Monday in his video statement during the Davos Agenda summit.

    “”More than 2 million people have died, and we are in the worst economic crisis for nearly a century,” Guterres noted.”


    • Robert Firth says:

      Two million deaths of eight billion people is 1 in 4000. By contrast, 150,000 die every day, or over one million per week. This “pandemic” is grossly overblown. and, Mr Guterrez, how many have died because of the lockdown? Ah yes, don’t ask, don’t tell.

      And, based on the recent news report from Gibraltar, the Pfizer vaccine is more deadly than the virus.

  31. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The fate of more than 200,000 seafarers who play a crucial role in keeping global trade flowing is being labelled a “humanitarian crisis at sea”.

    “More than 300 firms and organisations are urging for them to be treated as “key workers”, so they can return home without risking public health.

    “More than 90% of global trade – from household goods to medical supplies – is moved by sea. But governments have banned crew from coming ashore amid Covid-19 fears.”


    • Xabier says:

      Are the poor bastards still afloat? My God!

      • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

        The same in the United States Navy! Spoke to a chap that left the service but keeps in touch with his former comrades in arms. Those unlucky enough to be on a vessel out to sea were extended to another 6 month tour because of the baddie Virus and stuck out on sea. Real tough on the folks with families.
        Those on shore have to deal with the lockdown restrictions.
        Boy, what a mess we created….but that’s our specialty 🤭🤔😳

        • There was the legend of the Man without a Country, about a US sailor who was imprisoned in a warship for life for some trivial offense which made some higher up upset.

          Now it became universal for all US Navy

          • Robert Firth says:

            The US did the same during the Vietnam War. They stationed the USS Enterprise in the Gulf of Tonkin and had the crew launch dozens of sorties every day, until they were exhausted. Tours of duty were extended month after month, and morale collapsed. Much of the opposition to the war was not youthful idealism, nor cowardice, but a reaction to the horror that awaited them in Johnson’s military, where men were treated as lower then slaves.

            Why is the US military so interested in drones? Because they know fewer and fewer people are willing to put their lives on the line for a corrupt establishment that uses them and then throws them away, or kills them in VA hospitals.

    • The article is asking that these seafaring people be put at the head of line for vaccines. There seem to be a total of 1.2 million in this category.

  32. Harry McGibbs says:

    “A global oil & gas industry still reeling from plummeting demand and the proliferation of net-zero… policies is bracing for a tumultuous year ahead, with further cost cuts, consolidation and constricted hydrocarbon exploration and development likely in 2021, according to a new survey of senior-level energy professionals.”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Covid-19 is destroying the market for supertankers that deliver about a fifth of the world’s crude oil.

      “The result is likely to be booming trade on the beaches of Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, where obsolete ships go to get blow-torched and sold for scrap.”


      • seems to me we are reluctant to face the ultimate problem:

        a trio of crises, where climate change, energy depletion and overpopulation, a long time in combining, have finally come together in a final tsunami of (long denied) catastrophe, where Covid has manifested itself to stop humankind wrecking the planet further and put an end to the whole thing

        • Xabier says:

          If only it were so.

          It’s very much to doubted that Covid is a manifestation of any self-preservative instinct of our beautiful planet.

          It was created, and introduced, for a purpose – all evidence tends to support this contention.

          All the so-called ‘anti-Covid’ responses also serve to confirm it: they really make no sense otherwise.

          While the mass-murder which is planned will certainly relieve pressure on the ecosystem, it is the work of those who love neither the Earth, nor mankind.

          • in search of ‘living space’ and infinite energy, we have expanded human boundaries into territories which are the natural preserve of other critters, who carry what are benign microbial life forms to them, but dangerous to us.

            Every so often one of those life forms makes the jump to us.

            In the last few decades we have been able to modify those life forms, but they have been making the jump since we started herding animals in close proximity to themselves and to us.

            Neither of which ‘state’ is ‘normal’

            The current outbreak is no different to the last major one 100 years ago, and others in between. Or centuries before that. Looked at in Earthtime,(as opposed to human time) those outbreaks have been occurring in rapid succession as our population has been increasing. None of those historical ‘outbreaks’ had any origin in human intervention.

            The only difference this time, is not in the disease itself, but in its ability to derail our commercial infrastructure, its very complexity cannot accommodate radical disruption


            I’ve set out this as an exercise in logic.

            I wouldn’t presume to deflect everyone from fixated conspiracy-mania, (people must deal with what is in their own minds), but it might puncture a few conspiracy balloons before they get over inflated.

            The thought that somewhere, a cabal of rich elite has planned the mass murder of billions is beyond ridicule. I marvel at the stamina of those who sustain it. I guess one conspiracy spawns the next, there is definitely a line of succession stretching back to around the early 2000s when Zuckerberg started Myspace.
            Before that there were no ‘mass conspiracies’ (which really gained traction less than 10 years ago)

            Ive been commenting on here at least that long, there were no ‘conspiracies’ back then. it was just an interesting exchange of info with like minded people.

            ‘Conspiracies’ have grown in tandem with mass instant media. Any idiot has a voice. (yes including me)

            Doesn’t that tell you something?

            No Moonscams, no WTC plots, the Sars (2003) and Ebola (2014) outbreaks were just nasty diseases.
            Now we have covid, which mass media-conspiracy insisted was a hoax (2019),–it was supposed to be all over by Nov 4th remember.
            now it obviously isn’t a hoax and is actually disrupting our civilisation and killing people, it must be a conspiracy by ‘others’.—actually ‘designed’ to kill people. (seemingly about 5 bn of us)

            Doesn’t that tell you something?

            As yet, no one has addressed the question of how this mass murdering cabal intends their self survival in a world system that has been crashed and trashed by covid and its attendant problems of survival. Any suggestions?

            Still—nothing like a good conspiracy, is there?

            • nielscolding says:

              Well said Mr. Pagett

            • Xabier says:

              On the contrary, Norman, I have been highly resistant to what the establishment like to deride as ‘conspiracy theorists’ (itself a term of propaganda. by the way, designed to deflect interest in uncomfortable facts by associating it with lunacy), but the situation is now, a year after this started, as clear as a pike staff.

              They were, and are, quite right in their broad analysis, even if some are a bit suspect and obsessive.

              Ugo Bardi has seen this too, judging by his most recent posts – is he too a ‘conspiracy nut’?

              You have written much that is good on the energy situation, but you have always been rather weak – I am being kind – on history and politics.

              Time and again, great events have been set in motion by very small groups of people with shared interests and a unifying ideology. Mere handfuls can do this, as long as they have their hands on the levers of power and money.

              In the past, they affected tens of millions: now they inevitably touch on the lives of billions.

              The ‘4th Industrial Revolution’, the ‘Great Re-set’ and Transhumanism’, ‘Build Back Better’ (first you have to destroy, don’t you?) are our contemporary example of this.

              They certainly have the means, they have converging interests,and I suspect there is a cult element to it as well. What do you think they exchange at the WEF and Davos, baking recipes?

              Now, it might well be that their plans are flawed, impossible to realise: but they are now being put into effect, brutally, inhumanly and cynically.

              You are retired, pensioned and hence insulated from reality, but outside the charmed circle of the well-off, many millions are already suffering greatly: not from the virus itself, but from the almost universal loss of human rights, civic freedoms and work.

              Crushed by lock-downs and effective house arrest. Bombarded with fear-inducing advertising and propaganda of the most degraded type. Made to look like fools in masks – now even double-masks for God’s sake!

              You have sufficient intelligence to grasp the situation, but you simply do not wish to, because it is an uncomfortable fact.

              Simply jeering ‘conspiracy theorist’ – like the MSM – which is all your argument amounts to, really is beneath you.

            • to cover a few points

              I have 4 great grandkids, and twins arriving in the summer. That is my most uncomfortable fact.

              trust me—facts like that make sure you are not insulated from reality. quite the opposite. Terrified would be a better word. I am comfortably off, absolutely not well off I assure you. if I was well off I would do my utmost to insulate them from reality

              I haven’t read bardi lately. He may have changed tack. Everyone is entitled to do that.
              . Hawking told us to go live on other planets. Intellect and common sense are not fruit of the same tree. nuts are.

              As to my history and politics, they are invariably judged on personal perspective. I form my own ideas, others form theirs. Neither is good or bad, they are what they are, as seen.

              Some in here worship Trump, based on his own words and actions. Others see him as a menace to world society, based on those exact same words and actions.
              Thats politics for you.
              As to History, he assured us that covid was first a (Chinese) hoax, then told us to drink bleach, shine lights up wherever, then he caught it, then said it would be gone on Nov 4th.
              Thats history for you.

              my history and politics don’t agree with your versions, which seem to require propping up with global scale killing sprees, by person or persons unknown.

              as to energy, every aspect of our lives is entwined with that

              (feel free to point out actual errors, rather than the catchall–youre wrong) Any jeering is in your own mind, through interpretation of my words. I have never felt myself weak enough to resort to jeering on any score.


              Then we get to ‘the cult’–When I read that word I almost pressed delete. But as I’ve said before, I write what I do, as much to process my own thinking as to influence others.

              I am always wary of ‘cults’. The only ‘cult’ in the Davos meeting is rendering the planet into cash. Nothing more.
              The fact that the global credit card has expired is something they are unaware/in denial of. Growth is what they have always known, so growth there must always be. I wasn’t invited to participate.

              No secret ‘cabal’ is going to fly around the world smearing traces of covid on airport toilet door handles, like Russian secret agents.

              Even the dimmest zillionaire realises that his wealth is derived from ordinary mortals like you and me. Would you care to offer a realistic opinion on what the world would be like with 1 billion people in it? After 6.5 bn have been bumped off?

              Even a vague suggestion?

              Or does that come under the heading of jeering?

              (please excuse my mirth, I think I’m entitled to a chuckle now and then)–
              perhaps you can suggest what Bezos might do with the (rumoured) 000s of gold bars he has buried somewhere in the mountains? (post population collapse that is.)

              Because his warehouses full of ‘stuff’ will be worth literally nothing once he has killed off 6/7ths of his market. With no people, Bezos, et al, become paupers like everybody else.
              With no people, the 400k acres of land bought by Gates will be reclaimed by the buffalo, and have the value it had in 1700—ie, nothing in money terms

              Unlike us, The ‘First Nations’ peoples did not make the mistake of putting value on land itself.

              Or have you not ‘grasped that situation’ ?

              by your standards my grasp of history and politics may be weak……I would be interested in your assessment of that slice of future ‘reality’

              agreed the lockdown thing is fraught with errors, and probably won’t do any good in the long term. And is causing all kinds of social mayhem.

              But I venture to suggest that if you were offered a free world cruise (I am making the assumption that you might want one of course), on the best ship in the world, with a crew completely unscreened for the coronavirus, you wouldn’t go near it.

              Why not-?–nobody would be infringing your human rights, or taking away your civil liberties.


              And as to the 2nd 3rd 4th industrial revolutions. Ive no idea what they were or are.

              There was only one industrial revolution, the one that delivered cheap iron to everybody. Everything else was built on, and dependent on, that. No further industry would have been possible without it.

              When we can no longer produce cheap iron in quantity, our modern existence is over.


              As I pointed out earlier, until less than 10 years ago we had no conspiracy theories.

            • avocado says:

              I know nothing about moon landing, and I believe WTC was a move from the Saudis to force the US to expel Saddam Hussein. But you can’t deny covid scam! Was it a hazard that only three months after the spike in the repo rate and that the fed started printing again the virus appeared? Every government in this planet was obsessed with growth, but suddenly they want to preserve life at all costs and have the biggest disdain for the economy? Why do they systematically neglect ivermectin? Why do they terminate youtube accounts? Why do they want to force vaccinations with drugs developed in a hurry? Are you joking? Do you really believe there is no link between Greta T. and Peak oil? Do you think people would have accepted the End of growth? We saw very clearly what was happening in China and that everybody was reacting too slowly; now even a WHO “independent panel” acknowledges it. Do you really believe they care about you or me, they want to protect public health? So, why Bill Gates laughs about the pandemic? I don’t know if they’ll kill billions, but I’m sure they wouldn’t mind doing it. And how to maintain some civilization in this environment, I don’t know, perhaps they don’t know either but they will try because they have no choice

            • apart from finding out who ‘they’ are. (I’ve never found that out)

              linking the WTC to Saudi to forcing out Saddam Hussein would be laughable if I thought you were alone in your thinking.
              Maybe you’ve thought through the fact that 2000+ people were killed to expedite this?
              Or were they all smuggled out by the back door just before impact, with their silence bought for $100 each?

              as it is, I don’t think you are alone in your thinking

              which just adds another level to the conspiracy pile, and makes it ultimately more dangerous when it kicks into mass hysteria that becomes open to believing any nonsense that is put out there

            • Mark says:

              Good comment Norman. My first reaction to the virus was that ‘we know too much’, and we’re going to try to solve it (control).

              Living for so long in small groups in harmony with nature makes unwilling to abide with hierarchy and social control. (It seems though, we will trade it for the ‘good life’ and then complain about it.)

              Is it the disease itself that is “derailing” us, or our reaction to it?
              Have we ever quarantined the healthy before?

              There is definitely shenanigans of not letting a crisis go to waste, or perhaps even planned for some reason, but in the end, we’re just burning our exergy as fast as possible.


            • its our reaction to it thats derailing us

              but its hard to see what choice we have

            • JoJo says:

              Looks like the State department is part of the conspiracy theory Norman.


              Norman; Everthing that the MSM tells you is true.

              JoJo au contraire

              Norman; Conspiracy theorist!

              JoJo; Now Norman.

              Normon; You dress in leather boots and worship the don in a secret conpiracy theory room! Thats a fact not a conspiracy theory!

              JoJo Now Norman

              WEre going into the abyss. Humans are horrible. Conspiracy theorists and don worshipers are the worst of all! At least decent people believe the MSM.

              JoJo Now Norman

            • Very Far Frank says:

              It’s not ‘derailing’ anything though surely, given the wider context?

              If we were travelling over the Seneca cliff at warp speed, then it’s almost fortuitous that Covid came along to ensure we had a ‘right on’ public health excuse to shut off large parts of the economy.

              The situation now is that the system has consolidated to only large organisations and digital businesses- therefore a more sustainable energy consumption scenario. This is what lends credence to the conspiracy theories for me- the fact that SARS hardly resulted in any lockdowns, and when COVID-19 rolls around on the dawn of the Limits to Growth cliff, it’s taken far more seriously, regardless of the very low CFR.

              Worse still, it’s deemed ‘unreasonable’ to discuss whether the lockdowns are even necessary. Well, what’s ‘reasonable’ is defined by someone, and at the moment, it’s not wider society.

            • Kowalainen says:

              What’s the point of quarreling over nothing? But by all means don’t let it stop you.

              If you and I are lucky, we’ll survive on much less. Kiss the opulence farewell. Yes, that same opulence you can’t perceive due to the myopia of the ordinary.

              You wanted more, then went ahead accepting the lies that comes with it. You could personally have downsized, but oh no, you were busying yourselves competing in vanity with the joneses, despite, yes indeed, despite the reality of OFW.

              And here we are. Now what is the best part of this debacle you might wonder? It’s me being all smiles when you’ll go for each other’s throats.


            • Mark says:

              So planned or unplanned doesn’t matter. “We” collectively are going off the cliff with unfathomable pain and death to innumerable species.

              The fear and lock down control is real, but regional.The suppression of cheap treatment is about the money. I’m an introvert in Florida. Wearing a mask in the lift or store is no big deal to me.And I still get to hug the pretty girl who cares for my father (maskless).

            • Mark says:

              This is a reminder about conspiracy (control) that started way before 2000 and myspace.

            • my meaning was about instant and widespread conspiracies, maybe I didn’t make that clear enough..

              When Trumps mob stormed the capitol it was at the exact moment to votes started to be read out and televised to mobile phones

            • Very Far Frank says:

              You’ve got your timeline mixed up there Norman; the people involved in that (whether they were actually Trump supporters isn’t confirmed) moved in a good deal after ‘results’ had started coming in- weeks after.

            • straighten me out

              I understood that pence was actually reading out the votes state by state, he was interrupted and the process stopped when the senate floor was invaded?

            • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

              good work on the C theeeory rebuttals, Norman!

              the 1/6 timeline:

              planned days before by agitators, many of whom were already marching to the Capitol building before Trump spoke.

            • avocado says:

              Norman, I don’t really understand what do you mean. A few thousands of people died, but what about it? Obama banned impeded to sue the Saudis, and Osama was a Saudi prince. Who didi it, and why? Do you think Al Qaeda is just a bunch of lunatics, self funded?

              And “They” is the whole structure of power in the globalized world. From the top (the owners of the Fed, Xi Jinping…) to the bottom (my cousin that promotes lockddowns because it fits his position in the power structure in this country, even if he is in the lowest level)

            • one of us is out of their depth on this

              we’ll only know who, by seeing which of us drowns first in their own rising tide of nonsense or sinks in the mud of their own denial

            • Minority Of One says:

              “The thought that somewhere, a cabal of rich elite has planned the mass murder of billions is beyond ridicule.”

              The Nazis managed it (millions), or is that also a conspiracy theory?

              Klaus Schwab founded of the WEF: “Klaus Schwab is a child of Adolf Hitler’s Germany”


            • Nazi germany was not a cabal of AH–Goering, Himmler and a dozen others.

              Check the Wannsee conference, that might equate as close as possible to your ‘Davos’ nonsense-theory

              They didn’t ‘manage it’. they told thousands of others to ‘manage it’–who jumped at the chance.

              Their extermination camps were run by thousands of like minded people who had been brainwashed/coerced into believing the same thread of lethal nonsense. Both men and women who became eager participants

              The trains from all over Europe were driven by the same people

              Their gas chambers were built by bona fide engineering companies

              The camps were built by construction companies.

              People kinda ‘noticed’

              ‘I vas merely obeying orders’ was hogwash

              watch this and try not to weep

              I’m surprised that as yet the holocaust hasn’t been put forward as another hoax.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Norman, indeed.

              The truth shall reveal itself with the passing of time. As for the perpetual now, N+1 hypotheses with soft probabilities of being the right one.

              Sinking in the mud of the lies and delusions we surround ourselves with and is of our own making will happen nonetheless.

              No amount of BS will get us out of this sucker without som drastic changes in the myopia of the ordinary. Some drastic decisions has been and/or will be made.



          • Azure Kingfisher says:

            If one objective of the scamdemic is essentially the rationing of energy and the reigning in of mass consumption then it would appear the ruse is a success. How many people have died from the following during the scamdemic:

            Drug overdose
            Undiagnosed disease
            Domestic violence
            Old age

            Aside from those unfortunate and dreadfully underreported casualties of the fictional “War on COVID-19” there is also the ongoing suffering of the survivors – the young, healthy working-age people:

            Saddled with student loan debt
            Unemployed or underemployed
            Unable to plan for their futures
            Unable to form partnerships due to social distancing and thus unable to form future family units

            Our “leaders” have already contributed to the deaths of many while at the same time they are preventing the births of many in the future – and we’re not even talking about the impact of COVID-19 infections!

            When Saddam Hussein was falsely accused of stockpiling weapons of mass destruction it helped usher in the “War on Terror.” What were the costs of this lie? Since that time, have there ever been any legal repercussions for this lie? The Iraq War cost an estimated $2+ trillion while the greater War on Terror cost an estimated $6+ trillion. How much will the War on COVID-19 cost? Which parties are profiting from the war and which parties are suffering from it?

            A genuine virus isn’t necessary for affecting rapid changes and societal transformation. A compelling narrative and effective methods of spreading that narrative are all that is required.

            “The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of…in almost every act of our daily lives, whether in the sphere of politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number of persons…who understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses. It is they who pull the wires which control the public mind, who harness old social forces and contrive new ways to bind and guide the world.” – Edward Bernays

            • JesseJames says:

              The lockdowns are an excellent way of impeding marriages and thus child
              Bearing in families.

          • Tim Groves says:

            One of us is out of our depth on this.

            That’s right, it’s you Norman.

            Straighten me out.

            Too straighten out all the kinks in what you’ve claimed this thread would take a 200-page book. I’m not that fond of typing that I’d be prepare to attempt that.

            Of course, Trump never told anyone to drink bleach, and Trump supporters didn’t lead the charge on the Capitol. But you already know that, don’t you? If you’d stop making such transparently false claims, it would be easier for others to look at the rest of your arguments on their own merits, rather than dismissing everything you say in advance out of exasperation with the BS element.

            But the big one, you are now—at your age—with great grandchildren—worried about the future.

            I was there ahead of you. Fifty years ago I was so worried about humanity’s collective future that I decided not to have kids. I let my less nervous and more courageous brothers get on with that. And now, the sort of future I had been fearing is coming into sharper perspective.

            No doubt human life will go on, and no doubt life will be very good for some and tolerable for the great mass of people who survive. And no doubt the biggest transformations will come in North America, Europe, Australia and NZ. The Second and Third Worlds have don’t have nearly so far to fall. And their denizens are much more stoical than the spoilt brats of the First World.

            A lot of Third Worlders own nothing, and they are happy! Before Covid, if you had traveled around South America, Africa, or South and Southeast Asia, you would have found it surprising how happy people were. And upon returning to the West, and especially to the UK, you would have been struck by how the majority were complaining and bickering and walking around with a frown on their face. And that was when they were supposed to have been an affluent society.

            • Robert Firth says:

              Tim, I have indeed travelled in South America, Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, and I found exactly what you claim: even the poor people were happy. Because they trusted each other, helped each other, and were mostly content with what they had.

              Which, of course, is why the oligarchs are enforcing “social distancing”: it is not to save us from the virus, but to disconnect us from our neighbours. Just as an earlier form of capitalism encouraged us to compete in buying expensive inessentials, to sow competition rather than cooperation.

            • ah yes

              the invasion of the capitol building was led by BLM people with their faces whitened

              shoulda known, never thought of it until I read your comment

              thanks for straightening me out.


              am in the process of finding out who the body double was, who told people that disinfectant and inserting ultra violet lights could cure covid—he was really very good. Pity he’s now (hopefully) redundant.




              Granted, I rant on about a variety of stuff on here, but I do take great care not to make things up. If I am uncertain of something, I say so.
              I can only suggest you check out the above links. The last one is scary.

              (simple errors about names notwithstanding, always brought to my attention by means of a message held aloft in a cleft stick, your good self running across the veldt spreading the news to all who will listen)
              Such exercise is good for you. Terminal dementia not so good for me.

              I do acknowledge though that I am dealing with the ringmaster in the con-spir-acy circus. And the audience must be constantly entertained by new and original acts when the big top is set up in a new town each week.

              Must be the only circus where they recruit acrobats and jugglers from their audience before they move on.

              Do you have a vacancy for a human cannonball?
              I’m looking for an environmentally friendly means of travel.
              or at least shoot me over the walls of the madhouse.

    • From the article:

      The latest instalment of the annual survey found that fully two-thirds of the participants said their respective organisations are “actively adapting to a less carbon-intensive energy mix”, with 57% saying they plan to increase investment in renewables, up from 44% last year.

      So companies are investing in government-subsidized renewables, rather than unprofitable fossil fuels. Governments are subsidizing renewables as a way of stimulation their economies right now. Also,

      “We are used to adapting, but this is not like what we are used to. This is a step change down in the total volume of projects. It is sustained lower demand and lower prices.”

  33. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Saudi Arabia replaced its central bank governor and said it would more than double the size of its sovereign wealth fund by 2025 as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman sets the stage for a flagship investment conference this week.”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Saudi Arabia started the sale of a two-part dollar bond as countries in the Gulf Arab region raise cash buffers to weather low oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic.

      “The world’s largest crude exporter plans to price benchmark-sized bonds on Tuesday, according to a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named. Benchmark typically means the equivalent of at least $500 million.”


    • Saudi Arabia has to be kidding. It would need to have the price of oil rises very high, to be able to add a substantial amount to the sovereign wealth funds, or they would need to have their investments double in value. With low interest rate and high stock prices, that seems unlikely.

      • Minority Of One says:

        Maybe the journalist got ‘half’ and ‘double’ mixed up, for his own good.

      • Robert Firth says:

        Perhaps Saudi Arabia is playing a longer game. Sell $ bonds for real $; exchange the $ for a safer currency, and when the dollar goes down the bonds don’t need to be repaid, so they keep the EUR (or Yuan) free and clear.

  34. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Thousands of farmers in tractor convoys have burst through police barricades to take their protest against new farm laws to the heart of India’s capital as the nation was marking Republic Day with a military parade…

    “Modi waved to crowds and sent out Twitter greetings for the national holiday without mentioning the farmers.”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Over the past two decades, Pakistan has reduced the number of people without consistent access to adequate food.

      “But with food prices soaring since the COVID-19 pandemic began, experts fear the number of those vulnerable to food shortage will increase…”


    • According to the article:

      Tens of thousands of farmers have camped on the outskirts of the capital since November, protesting against new laws which deregulate produce markets.

      Union leaders say the laws will allow private Indian conglomerates to take over the agriculture sector – the bedrock of the economy – displacing the existent system of purchases by the government at guaranteed prices.

      The new laws will “wipe out” the small farmers. More of the K shaped economy emerging. With fewer potential buyers of the food being sold, it is possible that food prices will fall. The more efficient big farmers can deal with these lower prices. Voters might like these as well, except for the voters who lose their jobs.

      • Robert Firth says:

        Gail, what will happen to India is what happened to Rome as the Empire declined. The large landowners undercut the independent farmers, largely with slave labour, and the latter simply abandoned their lands and fled across the frontier, leaving behind millions of hectares of “agri deserti”. But the Indian peasant farmers haven nowhere to go, and they will starve.

        And the Indian government, composed almost entirely of high cast Hindus, will not care one iota.

  35. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Tuesday there were limits to what monetary policy can do, as years of massive money printing have failed to drive prices sustainably higher.

    “His comments were a rare acknowledgement of the difficulty the BOJ faces in meeting its 2% inflation goal, and underscore the struggle major central banks have in fending off shocks such as the coronavirus pandemic with a dwindling tool-kit.”


  36. Harry McGibbs says:

    “China wants to lead the global recovery from the pandemic and become more influential on the world stage than ever before. It might just have the momentum — and the confidence — to pull that plan off…

    “President Xi Jinping has already made it clear that he sees China taking pole position in the coming year and beyond.”


  37. Harry McGibbs says:

    “This year marks the 50th anniversary of the end of the gold standard in the U.S. In August 1971, President Richard Nixon formally unpegged the U.S. dollar from gold, meaning the greenback was no longer convertible into bullion.

    “Overnight, the dollar became a free-floating currency, measurable only by comparing it to other world currencies… Federal debt has only exploded since…”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Senior U.S. lawmakers are stressing out about mounting government debt as they resist President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion plan to boost the economy through more direct checks to Americans and aid to states and cities.

      “But investors in the federal debt, a wide range of market-focused economists and officials in the Biden administration have a firm response: Don’t worry about it right now.”


    • Robert Firth says:

      Harry, in 1970 the US debt was $371 billion, or about 10.6 billion troy ounces of gold. In 2019 it was $22,700 billion, or about 12.5 billion troy ounces of gold. The federal debt has not “exploded”; it has been devalued by 98%. The good news behind the calculation is this: yes, a return to the Gold Standard is indeed possible.

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        Robert, I can see the psychological appeal of a return to the gold standard as we enter an era in which loss of faith in fiat currencies looms but I can’t see it happening.

        Central banks are not going to relinquish control of the money supply now and the financial system is almost certainly too delicate to cope with such a bracing adjustment.

        As energy and resource-constraints grow ever tighter, the financial system needs to continue “stretching” to compensate (until the elastic limit is exceeded, at which point we are all in trouble). The gold standard introduces rigidity, so it moves us in the wrong direction.

        • Robert Firth says:

          Thank you, Harry. I agree with everything you say, except that I believe “rigidity” is the right direction. The only way out of this predicament, albeit a problematic one, is to replace false values with true values.

  38. Harry McGibbs says:

    “California: Criminal rings loot billions in jobless funds:

    “California officials say hackers, identity thieves and overseas criminal rings stole an estimated $11.4 billion in unemployment benefits from California last year…”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Three men working for a London financial institution have been arrested by the National Crime Agency as part of an investigation into fraudulent Bounce Back Loan claims totalling £6 million.”


    • Robert Firth says:

      Give welfare to any illegal alien who shows up, no questions asked, and then express great concern at discovering you are paying for fraud. Quelle surprise!

    • In California, there is also another $20 billion that looks suspicious, according to the article. Added to the 11.4 billion, the amount comes to $31.4 billion.

      This is a huge amount. According to the California state budget, total California state revenues are estimated at $137.4 billion, including $7.8 billion transfer from the rainy day fund. The state also get funds from the Federal Government. Total budgeted spending is $203 billion.


      • Robert Firth says:

        Gail, that is astonishing. So California gets almost 64 billion annually from the Federal Government, that is to say, from taxpayers in other states, and half of it disappears in fraud. I say, give them back to Mexico.

  39. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Europe risks failing in its mission to boost its growth prospects via the €750bn coronavirus recovery fund, Germany’s former finance minister has warned, as he questioned whether member states had the capacity to implement tough economic reforms.

    ““There is a lack of real progress, a lack of efficiency in the execution of [reform programmes] in the member states,” Wolfgang Schäuble told the Financial Times. “These difficulties worry me.””


  40. Jarle says:

    “WHO (finally) admits PCR test is potentially flawed”


  41. Dennis L. says:

    I find this disturbing:

    “Hanson’s sale pitch is that the robots can provide for people who are “lonely and socially isolated” during these times when Covid and lockdowns still effect many populations.

    “People need to be isolated from each other because to be around people is dangerous these days,” Hanson chillingly told Reuters”


    The latter group, education might be interesting, what happens to teacher unions?

    Being around people has always been dangerous, that is why Shakespeare was so right on about human relationships. But being alone drives people crazy.

    Dennis L.

    • Jarle says:

      > “People need to be isolated from each other because to be around people is dangerous these days,” Hanson chillingly told Reuters.

      Wrong, people need to be isolated from idiots!

    • Kowalainen says:

      Being with people also drives people crazy. Everything in moderation.

    • Xabier says:

      Although being isolated from the crazy -at present – might help preserve sanity!

      I am only too glad that we do not have Maoist-style public megaphones broadcasting Covid fear propaganda in the streets here – although I gather this is occurring in some supermarkets.

      The intention of the lock-downs, and prohibitions on even minimal socialising, clearly have not a medical but a psychological aim: to weaken and depress -and of course to make the victims crave the new ‘hope-giving’ drugs touted by the state-sanctioned pushers – vaccines…..

      • Ed says:

        Xabier, I value your posts they help keep me sane in the midst of a blizzard of propaganda.

        • Xabier says:

          Thanks, Ed.

          The propaganda is intense here, too. Disgusting manipulative ads featuring dying people in oxygen masks and lecturing nurses, etc.

          Very different to WW2 when the government actually tried to keep spirits up – I wonder why?

          To keep as sane as possible I’ve decided to avoid town and spend lots of time in the woods with my dog – the empty streets and shuttered shops are now too much to bear.

          I don’t know how people shut up in small apartments, or even big ones, are coping with lock-downs.

          They are utterly criminal in intent and effect.

          • Minority Of One says:

            >>I don’t know how people shut up in small apartments,
            >>or even big ones, are coping with lock-downs.

            TV. I prefer books myself. That and OFW of course.

    • well Hanson would say that, wouldn’t he? Zerohedge delivers some nutty stuff

      I wonder if he does a nymphomaniac version, who does housework occasionally?

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      Robots could have an ecclesiastical function.

      RCC is running out of priests in the West and most of them are over the age of retirement. Young men simply do not consider it to be an appealing job or lifestyle, certainly after all the scandals.

      They could dress robots up as priests to take mass and give them a traditional side parting on grey hair for an ‘authentic’ appearance. Fr. Bot, Holy Order of the Bots. And to instruct the kids in catechism….

    • How about use of the telephone? Or going outside to talk to neighbors?

      Of course, if the salesman can sell the idea, it will be possible to get debt to finance facilities to build humanoid robots.

    • This article says a lot of things. One of them is,

      “the strong growth in US exports is unlikely to return as long as crude oil prices remain in their current range,”

      In other words, the US won’t pump more oil from shale, unless the price is a whole lot higher than today. I expect that something similar is true for Middle East oil.

      The article also points out that crude oil exports (- 8.3%) fell a lot more than shipment of oil products (-5.2%), Oil products would include jet fuel, diesel and many other products. Gasoline exports actually rose (1.8%). I expect that crude oil stocks held around the world are now higher now.

      • Oops! I think I have the story backward, above. If crude oil exports shrank more, then crude oil stocks were drawn down to try to maintain products at their current level.

        It is striking that the things that are closest to the consumer (like gasoline) tended to be least affected by the pandemic.

    • I think that China’s planned re-entry into the ship recycling industry is likely a boondoggle that adds to China’s GDP and debt, but will never really pay back.

      China got out of ship recycling because it didn’t pay well enough. Metals prices were not high enough. India and Bangladesh could undercut China’s costs. Pollution was a huge problem that India and Bangladesh were willing to look the other way on, but China had reached the end of the line on.

      Now, China thinks that some customers will be environmentally conscious, and be willing to pay a premium for China’s ship recycling. I suppose they think that copper and steel prices will stay relatively high, because of continued stimulus. In fact, they are hoping that they will rise further.

      I question whether this will work out. Customers look for the cheapest recycling costs. Recycling tends not to pay back well because prices don’t really rise over the long term, whether it is metals or fuel prices.

      • has anyone done a definitive cost exercise in the economics of cutting up one ship and using the materials to build another of the same size and weight?

        • Artleads says:

          Some of the spiritually inclined might conclude that the tankers have some kind of soul, and that if you cut them up in a practical, soulless and mechanical way they will be angry at, and work against, you.

        • Of course, if we ship less in the future, we won’t need as many boats in total. This is one of the things that will hold down demand for materials.

          • Rotten Fish Guts says:

            Having been on boats well past their prime some things hold true with boats / ships. 1) they don’t like suitcases 2) it’s bad luck to eat bananas on them 3) it’s dangerous to leave port on Fridays 4) never paint them green or brown 5) if someone starts whistling on a boat then they are lunatics wanting a storm to come

            Boats do have souls and a bad sense of humour.

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