To Be Sustainable, Green Energy Must Generate Adequate Taxable Revenue

What allows any type of energy to be sustainable? I would argue that one of the requirements for sustainability is adequate production of taxable revenue. Company managements depend upon taxable revenue for many purposes, including funding new investments and paying dividends to shareholders. Governments depend upon taxable income to collect enough taxes to provide infrastructure and programs for their growing populations.

Taxable income is a major way that “net energy” is transferred to future investment and to the rest of the economy. If this form of net energy is too low, governments will collapse from lack of funding. Energy production will fall from lack of reinvestment. This profitability needs to come from the characteristics of the energy products, allowing more goods and services to be produced efficiently. This profitability cannot be created simply by the creation of more government debt; the rise in the price of energy is tied to the affordability of goods, particularly the goods required by low-income people, such as food. This affordability issue tends to put a cap on prices that can be charged for energy products.

It seems to me that Green Energy sources are held to far too low a standard. Their financial results are published after subsidies are reflected, making them look profitable when, in reality, they are not. This is one of the things that makes many people from the financial community believe that Green Energy is the solution for the future.

In this post, I will discuss these ideas further. A related issue is, “Which type of oil production fell most in the 2018-2021 period?” Many people had expected that perhaps high-cost energy production would fall. Strangely enough, the production that fell most was that of OPEC oil exporters. These oil exporters often have a very low cost of energy production. The production of US oil from shale also fell.

If the ratio of Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROEI) is to be used as a measure of which type of energy best meets our needs, perhaps the list of items to be included in EROEI calculations needs to be broadened. Alternatively, more attention needs to be paid to unsubsidized taxable income as an indicator of net energy production.

[1] According to EIA data, world crude oil production hit a peak of 84.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in the fourth quarter of 2018. Production fell as low as 72.3 million bpd in the third quarter of 2020. Production rebounded to 75.4 million barrels of oil a day, still 9.1 million bpd below peak production in the 4th quarter of 2018.

Figure 1. Quarterly crude and condensate production, based on international data of the US Energy Information Administration.

This drop in oil production was unprecedented. It far exceeded the drop in oil production at the time of the Great Recession of 2008-2009. As of the first quarter of 2021, crude oil production was roughly at its level in 2011. It still has not rebounded very far.

[2] The biggest drop in crude oil production during this period was that of the cartel led by OPEC and Russia. United States’ oil production also fell during this period. Production of the Rest of the World, in total, was fairly flat.

Figure 2. Crude oil production through the first quarter of 2021 based on international data of the US Energy Information Administration.

The big concern of OPEC and Russia was that crude oil prices were too low to provide adequate tax revenue for the governments of these countries. This is especially an issue for countries with few other industries besides oil. These oil exporting countries tend to have large populations, with little employment besides government-sponsored projects. Nearly all food needs to be imported, so subsidies for food need to be provided if the many people earning low wages are to be able to afford this food.

If oil prices are high, say $150 per barrel or higher in today’s dollars, it is generally fairly easy for governments to collect enough oil-related taxes. The actual cost of extraction is often very low for oil exporters, perhaps as little as $20 per barrel. The need for tax revenue greatly exceeds the direct expenses of extracting the oil. Companies can be asked to pay as much as 90% of operating income (in this example, equal to $130 = $150 – $20 per barrel, probably only relating to exported oil) as taxes. The percentage varies greatly by country, with countries that have higher costs of production generally paying less in taxes.

Figure 3. Chart from 2013 showing “government take” as a percentage of operating income by Barry Rodgers Oil and Gas Consulting (website no longer available).

When oil companies are asked about their required price to break even, a wide range of answers is possible. Do they just quote the expense of pulling the oil from the ground? If so, a very low answer is possible. If shareholders are involved in the discussions, this is the answer that they would like to hear. Or do they give realistic estimates, including the taxes that their governments need? Furthermore, if the cost of extraction is rising, there needs to be enough profit that can be set aside to allow for the drilling of new wells in higher-cost areas, if production is to be maintained.

Because of the need for tax revenue, OPEC countries often publish Fiscal Breakeven Oil Prices, indicating how high the prices need to be to obtain adequate tax revenue for the exporting countries. For example, Figure 4 shows a set of Fiscal Breakeven Oil Prices for 2013 – 2014.

Figure 4. Estimate of OPEC breakeven oil prices, including tax requirements by parent countries, by APICORP.

If a country tries to maintain the same standard of living for its population as in the past, I would expect that the fiscal breakeven price would rise year after year. This would occur partly because the population of OPEC countries keeps rising and thus more subsidy is needed. The fiscal breakeven price would also tend to rise because the easiest-to-extract oil tends to be depleted first. As a result, new oil-related investments can be expected to have higher costs than the depleted investments they are replacing.

In fact, if a person looks at more recently published fiscal breakeven prices, they tend to be lower than the 2013-2014 breakevens. I believe that this happens because oil exporters don’t want to look desperate. They know that attaining such high prices is unlikely today. They hope that by using more debt and reducing the standard of living of their citizens, they can somehow get along with a lower fiscal breakeven price. This is not a long term solution, however. Unhappy citizens are likely to overturn their governments. Such a result could completely cut off oil supply from these countries.

[3] A cutback in oil production is not surprising for the OPEC + Russia group, nor for the United States, given the chronically low oil prices. The profitability was too low for all of these producers.

Figure 5. Inflation-adjusted historical average annual Brent oil price for 1965 through 2020 from BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2021. 12-Jul-2021 amount is the actual Brent spot oil price for that date.

Oil prices fell in late 2014. Fiscal breakeven prices calculated before that date likely gave a somewhat reasonable estimate of the needed prices for oil exporters to make an adequate profit, at that time. By early 2019, when the first decreases in oil production began, these countries were beginning to become fed up with chronically low oil prices.

It is interesting to note that Qatar, the country with the lowest breakeven price on Figure 4, decided to withdraw from OPEC effective January 1, 2019, rather than reduce its oil production. For Qatar, oil prices in late 2018 and early 2019 were close to adequate. Qatar mostly produces natural gas, rather than oil.

The decrease in US shale oil production reflects somewhat the same low profitability issue as OPEC + Russia exports, with an additional factor added. Besides low prices, there seems to be a well-spacing issue. There are reports that the spacing of shale wells gradually got closer and closer, until the closer spacing became counter-productive. The more closely spaced wells “cannibalized” the output from nearby wells. The extra drilling may also have released needed pressurization, reducing oil availability.

Such a problem would have been a difficult issue to pick up from EROEI analyses because there are not enough of these EROEI studies to see sudden changes. Figure 6 shows the timing of the drop in US oil production, relative to the drop in oil prices:

Figure 6. Monthly average crude oil and condensate production and prices for the United States excluding the Gulf of Mexico, based on US Energy Information Administration data. Oil prices are West Texas Intermediate spot prices, not adjusted for inflation. Amounts shown are through April 2021.

Figure 6 omits oil from the Gulf of Mexico, because its quantity tends to bounce around, especially when a hurricane hits. Because of this exclusion, the oil shown in Figure 6 reflects a combination of declining oil production from conventional oil wells plus (after about 2011) rising production from shale wells.

Figure 6 shows that production of oil from shale was developed during the 2011 to 2013 period, when oil prices were high. When oil prices suddenly fell in late 2014, shale producers suddenly found production very unprofitable. They cut back on production starting in April 2015. Shale production started rising again in 2017 after prices moved away from their extreme lows. Growth in oil production began to slow in late 2018, when oil prices again began to fall.

The big shutdown in world oil demand associated with the COVID-19 epidemic began in the second quarter of 2020. Shale production fell in response to low oil prices in March through November of 2020. As of April 2021, production does not seem to have rebounded significantly. We have seen reports that workers were laid off, making it difficult to add new production. If, indeed, well-spacing had become too close, this may have played a role in the decision not to ramp up production again. It is quite possible that many drilled but uncompleted wells will permanently remain uncompleted because they are too close to other wells to be useful.

Based on this analysis, it seems likely that US oil production for 2021 will be lower than that for 202o. Ultimately, the lack of adequate profitability can be expected to bring US oil production down.

[4] There are some high-cost oil producers who continue to produce increasing amounts of oil.

Figure 7. Crude oil and condensate production for Canada and Brazil, based on international data of the US Energy Information Administration.

The keys to maintaining high-cost oil production seem to be

  • Large up front investments to make this production possible with little new investment
  • Governments that are not very “needy” in terms of revenue from oil taxes

Even with these considerations, having an unprofitable or barely profitable oil industry weakens a country. Neither Brazil nor Canada is doing very well economically in 2021. These countries will likely reduce new oil investment in the next year or two, if inflation-adjusted oil prices do not rise significantly.

[5] Somehow, “Green Energy” has been allowed to compete in the energy field with huge subsidies. If Green Energy is actually to be successful long-term, it needs to be profitable in the same way that fossil fuel energy needs to be profitable. If wind and solar are truly useful, they need to be very profitable, even without subsidies, so that they can support their governments with taxes.

There tends to be little recognition of the extent of subsidies for renewable energy. For example, allowing the electricity from wind turbines and solar panels to be put on the grid whenever it is generated is a huge subsidy. Such generation mostly substitutes for the coal or natural gas used by electricity-producing plants, rather than the electricity generated by these plants. The many reports we see that compare the cost of intermittent electricity generated by wind turbines and solar panels with the cost of dispatchable electricity generated by fossil fuels are simply misleading.

Furthermore, electricity generated by wind turbines and solar panels doesn’t need to be sufficiently profitable to pay for the much larger grid they require. The larger grid requirement occurs partly because the devices tend to be more distant from users, and partly because the transmission lines need to be sized for the maximum transmission required, which tends to be high for the variable production of renewables.

The lack of adequate profitability of wind and solar on an unsubsidized basis strongly suggests that they are not really producing net energy, regardless of what EROEI calculations seem to indicate.

It might be noted that in past years, oil exporters have been accused of giving large energy subsidies to their oil producing companies. What these oil exporters have been doing is charging their own citizens lower prices for oil products than the high (international) price charged to foreign buyers. Thus, high taxes were collected only on oil exports, not from local citizens. With the fall in oil prices in late 2014 (shown in Figures 5 and 6 below), this practice of differential pricing has largely disappeared.

“Oil subsidies” in the US consist of financial assistance to low income people in the US Northeast who continue to heat their homes with oil. These subsidies, too, have mostly disappeared, with lower oil prices and the availability of less expensive forms of home heating.

[6] It seems to me that an economy really has three different requirements:

  1. The total quantity of energy must be rising, at least as rapidly as population.
  2. The types of energy available must match the needs of current energy-consuming devices, or there needs to be some type of transition plan to facilitate this transition.
  3. There must be enough “net energy” left over, both (a) to fund governments with taxes and (b) to fund any transition to different energy-consuming devices, if such a transition is required.

Thus, in order for a transition to Green Energy to really work, it must be extremely profitable on a pretax, unsubsidized basis, so that it can pay high taxes. The greater the need for a transition to different energy consuming devices, such as heat pumps for buildings and electric vehicles of many types, the greater the need for more net energy generated by Green Energy sources to help facilitate this transition.

High profitability for energy products is normally associated with a very low cost of energy production. Furthermore, the type of Green Energy available needs to be in a very useful form. In a sense, there are really two different energy transitions required:

  • The output of intermittent electricity devices must be brought up to grid standards, using a combination such as many long distance transmission, very substantial battery backup, and the use of many devices to provide the electricity with the precise characteristics it needs.
  • As mentioned above, if greater use of electricity is to be made, a transition to electric devices is required.

Both of these transitions will require a significant quantity of energy (really net energy not used elsewhere in the system) to accomplish. If fossil fuel energy is being phased out, an increasing share of this net energy will need to come from the Green Energy sector by way of the tax system. Such a system will only work if the Green Energy sector is very profitable on a pre-tax basis.

[7] Figure 8 suggests that the world has a problem with low energy consumption per capita right now.

Figure 8. Energy consumption per capita for all energy sources combined based on data from BP’s Statistical Review of Energy 2021.

There is a strong correlation between growth in total energy consumption per capita and how well the economy is doing. The slight downward slide in energy consumption per capita in 2019 indicates that the economy was already doing poorly in 2019. The huge downward shift in 2020 dwarfs the downward slide in 2009, when the world was in the midst of the Great Recession. My earlier research, looking back 200 years, indicates that low growth in energy consumption per capita is likely to lead to conflict among nations and collapses of governments. Epidemics are also more likely to spread in such periods, because greater wage and wealth disparity tends to occur when energy supplies are constrained.

Any shift away from fossil fuel energy to Green Energy will almost certainly mean a huge drop in world energy consumption per capita because the world doesn’t produce very much Green Energy. Such a drop in energy consumption per capita will be a huge problem, in itself. If the Green Energy sector doesn’t generate much taxable income without subsidies, this adds an additional difficulty.

[8] Conclusion: Examination of the EROEIs for various fuels, using calculations the way that they are performed today, gives inadequate information regarding whether a transition to another set of fuels is feasible.

Researchers need to be looking more at (a) the total quantity of energy produced and (b) the profitability of producing this energy. An economy is only possible because of profitable businesses, including energy businesses. A person cannot assume that energy prices will rise from today’s level because of scarcity. Today’s huge debt bubble is producing very high copper and steel prices, but it is not producing correspondingly high oil prices.

Heavily subsidized energy products look like they might be helpful, but there is little reason to believe this to be the case. If Green Energy products are truly producing net energy, we should expect this fact to be reflected in the unsubsidized profits that these products generate. In fact, if Green Energy products are truly producing large amounts of net energy, they should be so profitable that businesses will be rapidly ramping up their production, even without subsidies or mandates.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,605 Responses to To Be Sustainable, Green Energy Must Generate Adequate Taxable Revenue

  1. Why can’t China kick its coal habit?
    Last Updated: Aug. 2, 2021 at 11:25 a.m. ET
    First Published: Aug. 2, 2021 at 11:24 a.m. ET
    By Daniel K. Gardner
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-cant-china-kick-its-coal-habit-11627917909?siteid=yhoof2
    Pressured by a slowing economy, internal dissent and trade disputes with the West, China is rapidly building coal-fired plants when it should be dismantling them
    Worryingly for China and the planet, that forward momentum now appears to have shifted into reverse. Coal consumption, which had decreased each year between 2014 and 2016, has since risen steadily. The same is true of carbon-dioxide emissions, which increased by 1.5%-1.7% even during the pandemic-induced slowdown in 2020.

    China must do better. The 2019 United Nations Emissions Gap Report concluded that limiting global warming to 1.5° Celsius relative to preindustrial levels requires reducing global emissions by 55% from 2018 levels by 2030. But China added 38.4 gigawatts of new coal-fired power capacity in 2020, even as the rest of the world reduced its net capacity by 17.2 GW.

    Worse, this increase is only the beginning. The Chinese government has approved construction of an additional 36.9 GW of coal-fired power capacity, bringing the total under construction today to 88 GW. And proposals to build another 158.7 GW are in the pipeline, putting the total new capacity now under consideration at 247 GW—more than the United States’ total installed amount of 233.6 GW
    …..And at President Joe Biden’s climate summit in April, Xi announced that during the new Five-Year Plan, China would “strictly control” coal-fired power consumption but allow it to increase, and “phase it down” only from 2026.

    This is a recklessly unambitious timetable. Climate experts at GEM, TransitionZero, and elsewhere calculate that limiting global warming to well below a “catastrophic” 2°C will require China to close 600 of its 1,082 coal plants by 2030. If they are right, China had better start turning its massive carbon ship around now

    Heard time and time again…. we’ll change …. tomorrow…sure we will, sure we will…

    I have many Covid stories zi could post but FE and company are doing a bang up job

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Of course, nothing says that China can achieve a balance between (a) a high enough price for coal producers, so that extraction of this coal can actually continue, and (b) a low enough price for consumers of electricity from coal, and other products such as steel and solar panels made from coal.

      This is what allows hopium, and leads to the false assumption that we will burn more coal in the future. It is unlikely. We are past peak coal.

    • >>I have many Covid stories zi could post but FE and company are doing a bang up job

      Post them Herbie. I would like to see them.

    • china cannot slow down or turn around

      the Chinese party machine can only function on full employment.

      coal delivers employment—the party chiefs can clearly see what will happen when full employment ceases, they will be torn apart,

      full employment and prosperity was to be ‘forever’.

  2. JMS says:

    Testimony of a Spanish doctor about the use of PCR tests to create waves of “infected people”.

    “Another secret of the PCR: when on TV they said, we are entering the first wave, in the mail we received a warning: we are going to do PCR with 35 cycles. This means that the magnifying glass looking at the sample (the mirror) increases the view under the microscope by 35 times. When they said, we are out of the first wave, a message arrived: we do PCR at 20 cycles. When PM Mr. Sánchez already said that we were entering the second wave, they increased the cycles to 35, and so we continued with the waves and with the descents of the waves. Now it is 20 because people are already vaccinated, and (ironically) they already cure everything. Now it is 20 cycles because people are already vaccinated, and (ironically) they already cure everything. But if you say that there are people with serious neurological side effects every day, what do they do to you? They suspend you, because the population cannot know the truth. They have told me this: you shut up, you protect your job, your salary, and the population is told what to say.”

    https://www.alertadigital.com/2021/07/31/la-doctora-nadiya-popel-voy-a-contarles-un-secreto-como-se-cuentan-las-muertes-por-covid/

  3. New Sheep is out:
    https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2021/08/02/the-only-thing-worse-than-an-energy-collapse/

    There is very good point inside about authorities likely (not fully disclosed yet) hoping on some combo of next gen technofix via nuclear + geo engineering. One could add the US concept is based on smaller reactor designs by Gates and Muskianic orbital volume cargo launch capacity – swarms of satellites (not only comm. but for energy harvest beaming down or mere passive sun shielding).

    Author puts focus on thorium based reactors, not to be ready by at least decade and not fully sized demo at that. However, he omits the lowest hanging fruit and that’s reprocessing of spent fuel stock via breeder reactor and reprocessing plant nexus, and that already exists in regular industrial size in one country and could be likely copied relatively fast by other key players: China, S Korea, India, ..

    Obviously, the further discussion on hitting low energy return threshold with this approach anyway and questioning the overall aim of further grow and extractive industries is spot on.

    Nevertheless, proof is in the action on the ground, and so far there is no large commitment to be seen in build up of these (apart from various preparatory stages), instead it looks more as selective degrowth and demand limitation doctrine is the priority. But perhaps these are all just tools and strategies of the moment, so the fluid situation could pivot to any direction later.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      One point in the article is about the new fusion device that is being built, but which really doesn’t really add anything:

      the overall ITER reactor is designed to produce 500 megawatts of thermal power from an investment of 300 megawatts of electrical power. With conversion efficiencies, the net output of ITER should be around zero. From a practical perspective, that’s bad news…”

      In the event that ITER even broke even in energy, that would be something of a triumph for the scientists and engineers, since to date, fusion has been a massive energy sink. Moreover, technologies tend to be highly inefficient to begin with but are improved over time. Nevertheless, in both climate and fossil fuel depletion terms, it is doubtful that industrial civilisation has enough time left to wait while clever people somewhere else figure out how to do nuclear fusion effectively.

    • Kowalainen says:

      “Not only were Soddy’s views deeply unpalatable to the existing power structure of society, but they probably cut against the grain of human instinct, too.”

      Genetically modified rapacious primates wants:

      MOAR.

      Yes indeed.

      MOAR.

      The rapacious primate psychology isn’t that of self stabilization, but rather that of boom and bust cycles. Lotka–Volterra nonlinear oscillations. No amount of cheap energy will change that iron clad fact. A population decrease of, say 90% will just make the remaining 10% consume, yes, you guessed it right:

      MOAR.

      With other words:

      We’re going nowhere. Fast.

      Repeat after me:

      We’re going nowhere. Fast.

      Again:

      MOAR!

      🌍💥☄️☄️☄️

      It’s the only way to be sure.

  4. Fast Eddy says:

    A biological woman who believes she’s a man is playing for an Olympic gold medal with the Canadian women’s soccer team.

    On Monday, Team Canada defeated the U.S. Women’s National Team 1-0 on a penalty kick in the Olympic semifinals. The Canadian team has a transgender player, Quinn, who plays midfielder. Quinn, previously known as Rebecca Quinn, is a biological woman who identifies as a male or “non-binary.”

    Both the team’s official roster and the Canada Soccer website support her in her delusion, listing her with the singular name, Quinn.

    https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/735438/?utm_source=top_news&utm_campaign=usa

    Kinda like how norm believes he’s an intellectual….

    • Ed says:

      She might believe she is an commercial airliner. That is clearly insane but the Olympic committee is not a social welfare organization. Even insane people can play.

  5. Fast Eddy says:

    A new clinical trial based in the U.K. will seek to determine the most suitable gap between giving the first and second Covid vaccine doses to pregnant women, as well as the potential side effects on their babies. Those running the trial hope it will make pregnant women feel more comfortable about Covid vaccination.

    https://dailysceptic.org/2021/08/03/preg-cov-new-trial-to-study-potential-side-effects-of-covid-vaccination-of-pregnant-women-on-babies/

    I am wondering … who are the pregnant women who volunteer for these trials?

    How is that not child abuse?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Perhaps the volunteers have a family member who work in the vaccine industry.

    • Ed says:

      The word is murder not abuse.

  6. Fast Eddy says:

    VACCINE FAILURE — PATIENTS HOSPITALIZED, DYING MOSTLY FULLY ‘VACCINATED’

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/BTjo1GJeAFbg/

    You know this is true… because otherwise why the Boosters?

    Again – the original Injections were purposed to cause immune escape…. the Boosters are purposed to Boost immune escape… as we progress towards Devil Covid 🙂

    • Yorchichan says:

      Interesting that in Israel for all age groups under 80 years the percentage of hospitalized fully vaccinated covid cases is greater than the percentage of fully vaccinated in the population. Of course, this suggests the vaccines do more harm than good.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        COVID in Israel: Nearly 4,000 New Cases for First Time in Five Months

        Israel’s COVID cabinet is slated to meet to discuss new restrictions to stop the spread of the delta variant; Israel continues to administer third vaccination shots to citizens over 60, suffering from underlying conditions

        In addition to the 3,818 new COVID cases diagnosed on Monday, Israel also recorded a four-month high for patients in serious condition, with 221 people.

        Forty-two percent of patients in serious condition are not vaccinated, the Health Ministry data reveals.

        https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/covid-in-israel-nearly-4-000-new-cases-for-first-time-in-five-months-1.10074768

        So 58% were Injected CovIDIOTS…..

        Is the NZ govt not aware of the fact that the vaccines have failed? Odd that they are not halting the roll out… odd that no country is halting the rollout

        We’ve got a useless vaccine that is killing and maiming hundreds of thousands of people — yet they keep jabbing…. and now they are urgently rolling out a booster…

        It appears the virus is getting stronger…. see 4000 new cases…. the booster will boost the virus…

        Devil Covid imminent.

      • Alex says:

        Who gets vaccinated first, without much persuasion? 1) the old and 2) the ill, regardless of age.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Or more good than harm… if the goal is extermination…

        And who doesn’t like a good … extermination … particularly when it’s the exterminator being exterminated for once 🙂

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Perhaps the high level of hospitalized cases among those vaccinated represents “antibody dependent enhancement” issues.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        The Elders are … needless to say …. Delighted!

        normdunc will be receiving thank you notes by post shortly

        mike doesn’t get one…. he’s a bit too much

    • Ed says:

      Waiting for the devil is too slow. I have to believe that Bill Andy and Xi have the devil built and ready to go when called for.

  7. Fast Eddy says:

    Why the delta variant is spreading COVID-19 so quickly — and what that means for Canada

    Study suggests those infected may carry 1,000 times higher amount of virus

    “We are fighting the same virus but a virus that has become fitter and better adapted to transmitting amongst us humans,” said Dr. Michael Ryan, executive director of the WHO’s health emergencies program, during a Friday briefing.

    “We are fighting the same virus but a virus that has become fitter and better adapted to transmitting amongst us humans,” said Dr. Michael Ryan, executive director of the WHO’s health emergencies program, during a Friday briefing.

    Scientists estimate it’s spreading roughly 50 per cent faster than the alpha variant, which was 50 per cent more contagious than the original virus strain, according to the Yale School of Public Health.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/why-delta-variant-spreads-fast-covid-1.6120982

    Mass infection prevention and mass vaccination with leaky Covid-19 vaccines in the midst of the pandemic can only breed highly infectious variants.

    https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/

  8. Fast Eddy says:

    As Israel starts doling out the first booster shots (courtesy of Pfizer, which has just shipped millions of additional jabs to the tiny Mediterranean nation) several European nations are jumping on the bandwagon and doling out booster shots – including the UK and Germany.

    The Telegraph reported over the weekend that Great Britain would offer 32MM booster jabs starting early next month, with more than 2K pharmacies set to carry out the booster jabs. 2.5MM booster doses are expected to be delivered during the first week of September alone.

    Pharmacies will be at the forefront of the vaccine program so that GPs and other NHS staff can focus on the growing backlog of patients waiting for other treatments. Assuming a Sept. 6 start, the UK expects to dole out the final third jabs by December.

    The NHS has even proposed doling out booster shots alongside the flu vaccine for patients deemed to be the most high-risk. They will receive one injection in each arm.

    “That is the plan, wherever possible,” said one government source, who stressed that it “depends on final JCVI [Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation] advice and coronavirus vaccine booster trials”.

    HMG will be aiming to administer 2.46MM jabs a week throughout the fall to try and meet the deadline for the rollout.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/uk-germany-join-israel-offering-booster-jabs-most-vulnerable

    Ha ha ha – YES! The Injections are obviously not protecting the CovIDIOTS… but then that was not why the CovIDIOTS were Injected in the first place

    They were Injected for the purpose of causing the virus to mutate and strengthen… a Trojan Horse…

    And now the st___id CovIDIOTS … the clueless MORE ons.. will again step in the breach… and Inject yet MORE experiments into their bodies… in the mistaken belief that they will be protected from the covid variants…

    The joke is on the MORE ons… because the Injections are creating the increasingly virulent variants… and by Injecting the Booster… they further strengthen the Virus.

    You’d be hard pressed to find more profound st___id ity … this is VIP level Du mb… Elite Moreonism….

    Booster shots … Booster Shots.. step right up you donkeys … get yer booster shots…. free Booster shots… free donuts for the first billion … and cinema tickets!!!

    Hahahha… madness … huh?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      If vaccines have been presented as the only tool we have, then it makes sense to recommend more vaccines.

  9. Christian from Ice Age Farmer has a 15 min video on tightening supplies of corn.

    China Floods, Brazil Freezes, US Dry – Top Exporters Lose Crops as Grains Crisis Accelerates
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihh5ALoDqJU

    Mentions that China is reported to have lost 10% of its corn crop after that typhoon they got a week ago. The world’s largest producer of corn by far is the USA but I cannot tell from the video what the overall affect of the drought will be on US corn production – not discussed.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This seems to be what the USDA is saying in its July newsletter:

      U.S. corn production is raised 175 million bushels for 2021/22, based on increased harvested area forecast from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Corn yields remain unchanged as national precipitation levels have been below-average, but do not represent an extreme deviation from the 1988 to 2020 average.

      So the USDA is not very concerned about low moisture at this point.

  10. Yoshua says:

    The Lambda variant is resistant to vaccine induced antibody neutralisation.

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.454085v1

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Thanks!

  11. Fast Eddy says:

    hahaha norm dunc?????

    More than 5,100 Massachusetts residents have tested positive for COVID-19, despite being fully vaccinated against the virus, and at least 80 of them have died, state health officials said Tuesday night.

    The latest update from the state Department of Public Health comes as coronavirus metrics continue to creep up in the Bay State while the more contagious delta variant keeps spreading in the U.S.

    The so-called breakthrough cases — where fully vaccinated individuals test positive for coronavirus — have so far been rare, but are possible. And should even be expected, per the CDC.

    As of July 17, a total of 5,166 breakthrough cases had been reported to the state DPH. Of those, 272 people were hospitalized and survived. Of the 80 people who died, 23 died without being hospitalized; 57 died following a hospital stay.

    https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/more-than-5100-breakthrough-covid-cases-reported-in-mass-at-least-80-have-died/2435719/

    • Xabier says:

      We need a ‘breakthrough’ of intelligence and good sense.

      Unfortunately, there is no ‘vaccine’ available to set it off…….

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      That amounts to about 1.5% of the breakthrough cases dying. I would suppose that some of those cases are still hospitalized, so the number dying could rise.

  12. Fast Eddy says:

    The laughs keep pouring in!!!

    CDC Study on 12- to 17-Year-Olds Who Got Pfizer Vaccine: 397 Reports of Heart Inflammation, 14 Deaths

    A study released last week by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showed 9,246 adverse events reported among adolescents aged 12 to 17, including 863 serious events, 14 deaths and 397 reports of myocarditis.

    https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/cdc-397-reports-heart-inflammation-teens-pfizer-vaccine/

    • Xabier says:

      They promised us a warp-speed ‘scientific miracle’.

      Well, here it is: the vaccines turning healthy young men into the chronically sick, even if they survive. And maybe 65% of the injected with signs of clotting.

      A fine achievement, I am lost in admiration.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        And 32M boosters will go into the willing arms of British CovIDIOTS in August…

        This gives a reasonably good idea of the percentage of CovIDIOTS there are out there… https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/im-a-maskless-minority-of-one/

        • Xabier says:

          The other day, in a supermarket with about 100 or so people in it, I saw only 4 unmasked customers.

          I never see an elderly person unmasked, and rarely the middle-aged, only younger men and women.

          I don’t know what they are thinking, if anything: it’s become a habit it seems. And if we are to believe the govt., most must be vaxxed……

          Anyway, I’ll plod about exposing myself – to all and sundry bacteria and viruses.

          • FoolishFitz says:

            I was in M&S the other day and nearly all were masked.
            You would have no doubt shared my amusement when I walked to the tills and noticed that not a single member of staff had one on.
            I suppose that those that have faced hundreds of members of the public each and every day throughout this farce have come to the correct conclusion concerning masks.

            • Xabier says:

              Shop signs here:

              ‘Please wear a mask if you are able’.

              ‘Some of our staff still wish to wear masks and we ask you to do so too’.

              ‘We politely ask both staff and customers to wear masks in the shop’.

              I’m most amused by the shops which have no customers, so you see the staff standing very close chatting as normal, and then quickly they push the masks up when someone (masked) walks in…..

              Next to no-one is using the hand disinfectants at the door anymore.

            • FoolishFitz says:

              I haven’t noticed many signs, but given your examples I shall have read in future.
              Think how far you could take this(if you were so minded).

              ‘Some of our staff still wish to wear masks and we ask you to do so too’.

              I might enjoy this game. Thanks for the heads-up 😁

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I suggest putting on an overcoat…. fold your arms in front of you and let the arms hang loosely at your side….. drag one leg behind you … tilt your head to the side and grunt like a re tar ded MOREON ‘Iddddd likkkes to.. but.. I caaaaant… put … it on’

              BTW – did I mention when I was first dating M Fast… this was up in Shanghai where she was working… they have J-walking police…. if you J-walk they blow on a whistle like mad dogs and tell you to go back….

              I crossed the street and saw the cop before he saw me… so I pulled off the above … EXACTLY like that…. he took pity on me… M Fast was somewhat amused…. she entered the shop with her MOREON in tow (dragging his leg behind him).. 5 minutes later.. we emerged from the shop… Fast’s MORONISM miraculously cured… the cop was still there… he looked at Fast and shook his head … and laughed…

          • Ed says:

            In Maine the only people wearing masks are tourist from Boston and Manhattan.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Doesn’t sound good!

  13. Fast Eddy says:

    Vaccinated People May Play Key Role in Aiding Evolution of More Dangerous COVID Variants, Study Says

    According to research published last week in Scientific Reports, the highest risk for establishing a vaccine-resistant virus strain occurs when a large fraction of the population has already been vaccinated but the transmission is not controlled.

    According to research published last week in Scientific Reports, vaccinated people may play a key role in helping SARS-CoV-2 variants evolve into those that evade existing COVID vaccines.

    The researchers concluded three specific risk factors that favor the emergence and establishment of a vaccine-resistant strain. They are: a high probability of initial emergence of the resistant strain; high number of infected individuals; and low rate of vaccination.

    https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/vaccinated-people-key-role-evolution-dangerous-covid-variants/

    Tee… f789ing … Hee….

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This is the Nature article referenced:

      https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95025-3#Sec2
      Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains

      This article is on an academic model related to the “rate of vaccination.” It claims fast vaccination is better than slow vaccination. I would rather not “go there.” It seems to push for faster vaccination.

  14. Tim Groves says:

    This is a short Welsh government information video about the R number.

    They’ve taken the trouble to make it so simple that even Welsh people can understand it.

  15. Fast Eddy says:

    An Oxford Community Association has started a petition to make mask-wearing mandatory and has asked people to sign. Astonishingly, lots have done so. Many of my friends on Facebook have stated that they are pro-masks and will continue to wear them, even though they no longer have to. They maintain that by so doing they are protecting other people and other people are protecting them. It’s complete rubbish, of course.

    Hahaha… can’t for Devil Covid to kill off the MOREons

    • Xabier says:

      Oxford UK?

      It’s mostly middle-class women walking around with these totemic snouts on (the ones that really project) even on a nice sunny day. Sagging motherly bottoms and snouts, quite funny really.

      I am tired of talking to people and seeing the thin surgical masks suck in and out as they struggle for breath.

      Universal brain damage from lack of oxygen I’d say…….another master-stroke from the Elders!

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      It is hard to believe that masks will make any difference at all if a disease is this communicable.

      • Artleads says:

        No one had them on at a meeting last evening with plenty of space and mostly open air. But when we go shopping today, most people will have them on, and so will we. It’s ritualistic behavior for a very confusing time, but I can also see a physical difference between a small, well ventilated community gathering and a crowded supermarket full of strangers and lacking windows. I think the herd is trying to organize itself, and PLACE makes a difference (consciously perceived or not) in how they might work at it.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        It’s become PC ….

        To not wear a mask is to burn plastic bags in a Rayburn oven…

        One can even explain that it will end up being burned in a some guys back yard in the 3rd world… and why should we be allowed to NIMBY that poor guy?

        He’s got kids and neighbours who deserve to not inhale PCBs and other toxic stuff…

        Surely the Koombayas who want a Fair World… a more Equal World… would respond to this Initiative with “good on you for doing the Right Thing Mr Fast Eddy… Bravo to You! And thank you for not tossing the orange sacks into the river.”

  16. Gail, this is just some rando, but you might find some interesting aspects to poke into here.
    https://estateartistry.com/blog/a-pfizer-whistle-blower-confirms-many-things

    I am currently agnostic about the graphene issue (already enough rabbit holes…) but the parts about Pfizer production problems seem worth looking into…

    PFIZER INTERNAL E-MAILS CONFIRM SIGNIFICANT FORMULATION VARIABILITY IN COVID VACCINES https://covidvaccinereactions.com/ema-pfizer-leak/

    You will find discrepancies between the commercial and clinical batches of mRNA integrity being discussed. You will learn about a control process called “Chemistry Manufacturing and Controls” (CMC). This process is used to ensure that pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical drug products are consistently effective, safe, and high quality for consumers. In the emails between the EMA, they detail out that there are “some issues on CMC to be sorted out” (ref. EMA Email 1). According to the CMC, there was “an important comparability issue with [Pfizer’s] vaccine that needs to be addressed prior to approval” (ref. EMA Email 3). The email goes on to explain that the CMC found “A significant difference in the %RNA integrity… between the clinical batches ( ~ 78% mRNA integrity)… and the proposed commercial batches (~ 55%)… [The] efficacy of the drug product is dependent on the expression of the delivered RNA.”

    Forget the term “efficacy”. There is no efficacy here if by that they mean protection form illness. What this is, is a form of double-speak where ‘efficacy’ can just as easily refer to the ease with which these shots can injure or kill. There is no virus, this is not a product that claims to offer any immunity to any virus, and that is even more obvious now that the only people that are being reported as infected with breakthrough cases of covid are all vaccinated people!

    The main concern in all this internal E-Mail discussion is over choosing the best strategy for Pfizer that would allow them to continue pushing vaccines. Pfizer executives conclude that addressing the dismal safety and reliability issues in their production facilities should be thought of as a low priority, since they can continue to operate very little oversight so long as they continue to push vaccines under EUA. Should they ever seek full FDA approval that would change, so its likely they won’t bother doing that.

    I hope this makes it clear to everyone that this is the level of evil and psychopathy we are dealing with here.

    He then excerpts statements from Vanessa Schmidt-Kreuger, from a video I’d already seen and do recommend:
    http://enformtk.u-aizu.ac.jp/howard/gcep_dr_vanessa_schmidt_krueger/

    • Lidia17 says:

      Sorry, I confused that last link with a different session I had seen in English. Wish I had studied German! The main site has many many sessions and could be a good resource for those who understand the language.

    • geno mir
      geno mir says:

      The described attitude by Pfizer exec mqnagment is the norm across oharma industry. Thus is nothing extraordinary, it is 100% BAU for the pharma industry!

    • Alex says:

      “…and that is even more obvious now that the only people that are being reported as infected with breakthrough cases of covid are all vaccinated people!”

      LOL, only vaccinated people can become infected with a breakthrough infection BY DEFINITION.

      The first linked article is obvious disinfo piled together with what could possibly be a legitimate concern (e.g., low quality of commercial batches vs. clinical batches). The purpose of such articles is that because some of their parts can be easily debunked (e.g., graphene claims), all of the article’s content could be dismissed as made up crap based on guilt by association.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      It seems like there are so many issues, it is hard to consider them all. We also strongly suspect that we will not get good reporting from the Phase III trials, because of the influence of Fauci and others on the writing of the reports.

      • Xabier says:

        Bibi in Israel just went right ahead anyway and told the voters that the vaccines had ‘full approval in the US’.

        That was in the election ad in which he was convincing a man in a cartoon dinosaur outfit to get vaccinated.

        The dinosaur was really impressed.

      • Bei Dawei says:

        Christ, maybe Gail should do an article on the moon landings.

        • NomadicBeer says:

          You would just ignore it.
          Just like ou and Mike and Norm etc, ignore every single comment on the problems with vaccines.
          Just like most vaccinated people are completely blind to any side effects – denial of reality is the defining factor of human nature ( see Varki)

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Moon landings won’t likely be the subject of any article I write in the near future.

  17. Jeremy says:

    Delta Variant:

    They have NO idea what COVID variant anyone has unless they take a sample, grow the virus in a suitable cell line, and go through the sequencing process to find out what amino acids mutations have happened.

    Are they doing that in every patient across the world?

    • Fast Eddy says:

      BUT… in spite of this … they have a Booster that is …. effective against the Delta … snap of the fingers!

      Hey dunc… what’s the efficacy of this version of the Injection? Is it 95% as well? 99%?

      Please check CNN and get us the numbers.

      And how cool is it that they are not doing any testing at all on this … it’s a Just In Time vaccine… borrowed from the school of supply chain management …

      BTW – a friend who is reasonably high up in Pharma … told me … when I mentioned the lack of testing on the Injection …. that with these new technologies the testing period can be condensed to months down from years… I guess they can work out the long term effects by testing a vaccine for months….

      This is in line with norm’s assertion that 10 tonne steel girders can be flung across a street by horizontal gravity…

      1+1 = 7… a circle is now a square… and Elizabeth Holmes was able to diagnose 1000 diseases with a single drop of blood 🙂

      We need to organize jester hats for norm and dunc… my treat.

    • Jarle says:

      “Are they doing that in every patient across the world?”

      If only most people asked questions like that …

  18. JMS says:

    Then there are those people who seem to have the gift of prophecy. But that’s not true, they’re just well informed. Dr. William P. Trebing said the following in 2006, “Goodbye, Germ Theory”, p.108.

    “And now, the CDC is pushing hard daily to get smallpox vaccination laws, as well as others into effect, administered by FEMA. All they need to do after that is declare an emergency, and we all know how easy it will be for the CDC to declare an emergency whenever they desire. …then BOOM! Welcome to Amerika, the fascist nation. You will be monitored like a pet dog with a computerized vaccination card. Perhaps even a mandatory implanted chip. If you haven’t had all your shots, you will be denied travel, hotel stays, and most assuredly imprisoned until you comply.”

    • Rodster says:

      History has shown us that while government can certainly apply the boot at the throat of its citizens it always fails. It’s done because they sense opposition and try at all costs to hold onto power. Authoritarianism eventually leads to civil unrest and a collapse of its government, either from within or externally. As more people around the world begin to wakeup as they sense they are losing their freedoms, they begin to rebel and it usually leads to violence.

      • Mike Roberts says:

        It’ll be interesting to see how this works out in China and its claimed territories.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        That’s one reason they are Injecting in Israel ‘5 times faster’ with the Booster…

        They NEED Devil Covid NOW.

      • Rodster, the boot at the throat tend to fail mid-long term, while the oppressive meat grinder will get you (or someone in your circle) pretty much in the present short term with high probability in some fashion..

        Moreover, the wider chaos then tends to disrupt, uproot many pre existing capabilities and skills, in short it’s a vast setback. On the other hand this “fire” helps to sprout completely new maverick ideas and approaches from the ground up (or quickly implemented from outside)..

        We have had so many of these cycles that such general inner workings are understood as of now.

      • Xabier says:

        However, if the transition to a new Totalitarian system is fast enough and has enough supporters, then rebellion will be more or less impossible.

        That is what is being attempted now, since the coup started in late 2019.

        Well-planned and executed, so far.

        • Most likely we will have to go through the final stage of ~2025-35 (at the latest) carving up the global resources for regional influence zones. And THIS will go way smoother with general public and lesser biz / rich out of the picture aka corralled under authoritarian thumb already.

          Tim at Surplus posted new article about likely USD exchange rate collapse ahead, that’s certainly instrumental part of the process I’m mentioning here, but hardly the most enervating event as this will likely include many others: set up of trade zones (partly barter), real (food) embargo and retail shopping / distro quotas, long range travel bans and local movement check points, shaming-kangaroo trials w. internal opposition, ..

          More of the really profound collapsy things only after that phase at least speaking for the IC+ realm dwellers ..

    • JMS> thanks for that find, clearly someone somewhere noted Trebing’s musings for developing own projects..

  19. One thing leads to another:

    Global pandemic –> Mass “vaccination” –> “Vaccine” passports –> Repeat “vaccinations” necessary to maintain passports –> controlled population of human test subjects under corporate-controlled “Science”

    They need to get as many “vaccinated” as possible in order to implement a “vaccine” passport system. A “vaccine” passport system cannot function without “vaccinated” participants.

    Once the “vaccinated” accept the new passport system they will need to accept the reality that routine injection will be necessary in order to maintain their passports.
    When Israel first implemented their “Green Pass” system, the passes were valid for 6 months.

    This is the next major shift in thinking: getting the masses used to the idea that they must be routinely injected if they want to maintain their passports and privileges.

    “Variants” will be used at will to justify restrictions, “vaccinations,” passports, etc. They currently have the Greek alphabet to play with as well as the possibility of “mutations” and “hybrid” “variants.” In short, the narrative material necessary for future “pandemic” scriptwriting is well established.

    The UK is already discussing the need for everyone to get boosters from Pfizer. That’s an additional two doses after all the good citizens submitted to receiving their two doses from AstraZeneca. So they’ll be part of a new experiment, serving as a biological test site for an adenovirus-based “vaccine” and an mRNA based “vaccine.” Injections after injections after injections after injections after injections – the “New Normal.”

    In addition to controlling the population in order to effectively ration declining energy supplies, the “vaccine” passport system will provide a compliant population of test subjects for corporate-controlled “Science” and Big Pharma while securing Big Pharma profits. Those who wish to carry out their eugenics fantasies, or engage in sterilization or depopulation, or aim for a transhumanist utopia will have a captive population on which to experiment. Big data will come from all of this and with it the need for bigger and better technology. The “Internet of Things” and 5G will facilitate the capture and fast transfer of all this data. Implantable devices will replace wearable devices for monitoring various health biomarkers in real time – tracking the effects of the “vaccines” within the human organism.
    The injected will be concerned with their level of immunity to one or any number of “variants” mentioned by the scriptwriters. Meanwhile, the architects of the “vaccine” program will be closely watching various genetic biomarkers within the human population. The big question will be: “what are they looking for?” Signs of genetic evolution? Sterilization? Chronic illness?
    What, exactly, are their goals for the human population? What is their projected timeline for achieving those goals? How frequently will they need to inject the human population? When do they anticipate an end to their mass injection program; a point at which they can say, “mission accomplished?”

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I am working on writing a post. Hopefully, I will finish it before I fly to Minnesota. Otherwise, there will be a long gap. It is related to the vaccine mess.

      • Mike Roberts says:

        Yes, the vaccine situation is a mess. It seems to me that the various vaccines were promoted as sterilizing vaccines (though with less than 100% efficacy) which would stop the virus in its tracks. It’s now morphed to vaccines that aid the immune system and so reduces the severity of the associated disease. It seemed that it reduced onward transmission though the delta variant seems to have eliminated that benefit (at least in the early stages of the disease). Whether they can reduce the likelihood of contracting the disease, I don’t know.

        Overall, it seems worth having a vaccine but only to protect oneself. So, with the risk being very low (but not zero) in young and healthy people, it’s hard to make a case for the vaccine for them. I can understand the anger at the prospect of making vaccination mandatory for everyone or anyone.

        Vaccines may still be a way out of this mess, if they continue to offer protection and so reduce stress on health services. But I don’t, currently, see any way out of having to live with the virus.

        • It’s not “a mess”.

          It is the largest and most heinous crime in history.

          • Xabier says:

            It is indeed, Lidia – nothing in this is accidental, although it is possible that the immediate side-effects and deaths have been more damaging than they expected from the models.

            So in response they are having to move to compulsion rather sooner than planned.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Sorry mike .. but Fauci said from early days that this was not a sterilizing vaccine.. it’s one or the other…

          https://youtu.be/NiB3eK3btOE

          Here he is quoted on coronavirus vaccines https://www.wired.com/2003/05/feds-race-to-make-sars-vaccine/

          This is NOT a mistake … this is planned Extermination.

        • Colin says:

          Sweden seem happy to live with ithe just as they do with the flu.

        • All is Dust says:

          “Overall, it seems worth having a vaccine but only to protect oneself. So, with the risk being very low (but not zero) in young and healthy people, it’s hard to make a case for the vaccine for them. I can understand the anger at the prospect of making vaccination mandatory for everyone or anyone.”

          Thanks Mike, that is all I have ever advocated for. Bodily autonomy.

          My two gripes with the jab are:
          – they are doing more harm than good (with potential to do further harm in coming years)
          – effective treatments were suppressed to get the jab out

          Overall, I think both the jab policy and the product have ruined lives, and will continue to do so. But your body, your choice.

          All the best

        • Xabier says:

          On the contrary, the public naively assumed they would act like traditional vaccines, but Big Pharma, and their puppets in health ministries and governments, never once promised that.

          It’s a matter of public record.

      • Bei Dawei says:

        Don’t forget–in Taiwan, the total, current number of Covid-19 cases is 775 (as of 3 August). We get maybe 15 new cases a day now. And this barely three months after a major spike. Shouldn’t other countries be responding to Covid the way Taiwan has?

        • Bei Dawei says:

          (out of a population of nearly 24 million. Multiply these numbers by 14 to get a rough US equivalent.)

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Taiwan is a small island. It is very different from other countries.

          The disease will be coming back and back. China is stumbling now with delta. Taiwan shouldn’t think it is the long-term exception to problems.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        If there is a gap … Fast Eddy will be starring on Off Guardian .. until the next OFW post appears….

    • Pekoe says:

      Perhaps yes. Or perhaps not. It’s a good story though. Dr Evil could play a part.

      The co-ordinated conspiracy theory is a bit beyond me at the moment.

      Perhaps a different story is that a lot of good people are trying as hard as they can to sort out the best way forward and bumbling along just like we have done in the past?? Not a good story though so it won’t sell.

      In the meantime I guess we will all keep watching intently just in case you are right…

    • What I’ve been trying to highlight here as looming megatrend for some time already is that any proper quasi neo-feudal aspiring arrangement puts top priority on the (non) movement of the subjects. Basically, the idea is similar to corralling cattle and allowing for only very small unpredictability in this sense. Again, lets recap large part of Europe / IC was still under this setup till ~1850 and even after that you often have to have your papers checked on changing location-residency, occupation etc.

      Furthermore, as debated previously the true opulent (extraordinary surplus) years for the masses are bracketed by late 19th century till the recent plateau and start of degrowth, hence that’s like 90-160yrs depending how you evaluate it. And that is mere span of 3-4x generations or 4-7x generations (of younger reproduction demographics). In another words this development still well imprinted within institutional memory of the top share / stake – holders of the system.

      In short, this is all about aiming for return to previous “good old normal” of human farm operation.. aka landing the surplus airplane with almost empty fuel tanks aka attempted degrowth endgame.. etc.

    • Xabier says:

      You understand it very well, all the literature on the Transhumanists and eugenicists implies this is what they are aiming for.

      Everyone will be a resident in Dr Mengele’s Experimental Block…….

    • MM says:

      They think that they are made of genes and if they alter their genes they can become someone else because ultimately the hate themselves locked in this mess of a body of flesh.
      To find a genetic solution, the larger the genetic database you have, the better results it will yield. They can also test what kind of genetic engineering works best on a large scale.

  20. Yoshua says:

    The data from governments, big pharma and their minions cannot be trusted.

    If the vaccines really worked, then the data would be clear. David Windt calls the destruction of science an insider job…since it’s being done by scientists.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Models are tricky. Scientists assume that growth is forever, at the same rate. Scientists also assume that past trends will continue.

      • eKnock says:

        There are scientists.
        And then, there are science-styled marketers.

      • Models are indeed tricky. Climate models. Economic Models. Energy models. Virus models. We are a species lost in simulation.

        Our collective problem now is the widespread believe that our maps are in fact the territory.

        • Kowalainen says:

          Because when objective reality is a harsh mistress to understand. Why not collectively hallucinate about ideals and optima. It’s just illusions and hallucinations inside our computers and between our deaf ears and myopic eyes. Worse even, interpreted by a dimwitted wrinkly blob in between the low fidelity sensory organs.

          The same of course applies to the psychology of rapacious primates.

          Neither compassionate enough, nor vicious enough for its own good. Just stuck in the suck of a perpetual limbo dreaming of that which isn’t objective reality and that which we won’t ever be.

          It is a sad state of affairs. The shenanigans of the rapacious primate.

  21. Yoshua says:

    One would think that Pfizer’s cash flow would be an incentive for them to try to keep their customers alive?

    • Or they could just raise prices to compensate for the dead:

      Moderna, Pfizer Hike Vaccine Prices By Up To 25%

      “Pfizer and Moderna have both made clear that they see their COVID vaccination businesses as long-term profit drivers, not the public service that enabled them to receive billions of dollars in public money to effectively subsidize their development. And now that jabs from China and Russia are facing newfound skepticism across Europe and the emerging world, Big Pharma is showing its true colors, and demanding a massive premium from all buyers of its jabs as Pfizer rolls out its first ‘booster jabs’.

      “It’s interesting that they’re raising prices, considering that the Pfizer jab hasn’t exactly held up to the original promise of its efficacy.

      “Despite their original promises not to profit off the vaccines until the pandemic had ended, both companies are now seizing the opportunity to hike prices charged to governments like those in the EU.”

      https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/moderna-pfizer-hike-vaccine-prices-25

      • Fast Eddy says:

        This is because they have to settle hundreds of thousands of law suits related to the Injections… (or not….)

        • Have you seen the revealed Pfizer contract?
          (Somewhat shouty host, but interesting guest; about 20 min.)
          https://rumble.com/vkjp4s-pfizerleak-author-of-viral-twitter-post-validates-document-live-on-stew-pet.html

          • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
            Gail Tverberg says:

            Pfizer and the other pharmaceutical companies seem to have a lot of control over these contracts. The thing I noticed earlier was that it did not permit cancellation if the doses weren’t needed because a pharmacological intervention meant that they were no longer necessary.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          No lawsuits.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      It is the governments who want to get re-elected that are important. There is a need to keep people voting for them.

    • They are now selling the drugs to treat the seizures, myocarditis, etc. in the hundreds of thousands (millions?) of gene-therapy-injured.

      • Rodster says:

        Charles Hugh Smith, coined the phrase Sickcare. Leave to the bureaucrats to create another industry that feeds an existing industry customers. The Covid hoax is generating billions of dollars for Big Pharma without any repercussions or liability. Tony Fauci and Bill Gates are beneficiaries for this scam.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Add a little more sick care to the system!

      • Xabier says:

        It’s been reported hat the NHS here is stockpiling….anti-coagulants. I wonder why?

    • JMS says:

      Why should they care about that? In fact Pharmafia have more potential customers than they can handle, even in OECD countries, not counting the other 5 B. And here it’s worth bearing in mind that ancient saying (by Diogenes, if I remember correctly): 385 000 suckers born everyday!

  22. The Tories have shifted their position on a Scottish referendum on independence, and they are now allegedly open to the possibility of one. Likely they see outright refusal as unsustainable and damaging and their intention is to propose the possibility of a referendum without actually giving one. They declined to clarify exactly what the preconditions would be and how the fulfilment would be ascertained. But Tory hostility to a referendum (‘not for another generation’) has already sunk in, and likely they still have not got a clue what they are doing.

    If the Tories had any sense then they would have agreed to one in May and got it over with before support for independence rises again. UK is facing high tax, austerity and low growth with c 19, and the ‘jab bounce’ for the Tories and the UK in the polls is liable to wear off; also younger generations favour independence and the clocking is ticking on pensioners, as it is on the relatively popular QEII.

    The Tories have played their hand extremely badly, which is what one expects of them, as we saw with Brexit, NIP, Gibraltar, the city of London etc. It may now be that Scottish independence is a matter of ‘when not if’. The idea that the UK will hold off on a referendum, until the time comes that a clear majority supports independence, is just perfect for SNP. That time is likely coming soon enough and it would make little sense for the SNP to have a referendum before that.

    > Gove backs Scottish independence vote if there is ‘settled will’

    Cabinet office minister’s remarks draw sceptical response from Scottish National party

    The UK government will not stand in the way of a second Scottish independence referendum if there is a “settled will” in support of another vote, cabinet office minister Michael Gove has said, as tensions continue between London and Edinburgh over the future of the union. In an interview with the Sunday Mail, Gove said that while now was not the right moment to put the question of independence forward, he argued that under the “right circumstances” the Westminster government would not prevent the Scottish public from expressing their thoughts on the matter.

    Gove’s comments come as the Scottish government has been increasing political pressure over independence. During the May local elections, first minister Nicola Sturgeon, who went on to win her fourth consecutive victory, campaigned on the manifesto pledge to hold a second referendum by the end of 2023. The following month Gove, who is responsible for strengthening the UK’s 313-year union, said he thought it would be unlikely that the UK government would approve a referendum before the 2024 general election.

    Sturgeon and her allies have argued that support for a second referendum is growing, with the vote now a “matter of when — not if”. A poll for the Sunday Times newspaper in June by Panelbase found that, excluding “don’t knows”, 48 per cent of people favoured independence. But this represented a drop of four percentage points from an earlier poll in April. Although the SNP fell one seat short of a majority in its own right in the May elections, pro-independence parties control 72 of the 129 seats in the Edinburgh parliament.

    Speaking in response to Gove’s latest comments, the SNP’s Westminster leader Ian Blackford MP voiced scepticism, warning that the Scottish public could not trust the Tories to protect Scotland and that the country faced “another decade of Tory austerity”. “The fundamental point Michael Gove missed is that the people of Scotland have spoken and expressed their settled will that they want to hold a referendum when they elected a majority of independence supporting MSPs to the Scottish Parliament just over two months ago. If Boris Johnson continues to ignore the mandate given by the people of Scotland to hold a referendum then he will continue to tell the people of Scotland that their opinion does not matter. That will only push support for independence up.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/69f75fec-fb06-4a94-b577-bfa1ff8b3eae

    • neil says:

      Because none of these difficulties will apply to an independent Scotland? What a fantasy.

      • I guess that the unionists are just going to have to work for themselves how politics work.

        • Erdles says:

          Dream on, there is never going to be a referendum. The SNP did not honour the last one, so why should any British government trust them to do so for the next?

          • You do not speak for anyone do you, let alone all UK governments? I do not know what gave that you that fantasy. They are all signed up to the GFA that foresees the possibility of a referendum in NI on Irish unity every seven years if it seems likely that a majority would vote in favour, which can only be a matter of time now with demographics being what they are. Gove has now indicated that the same basic principle applies in Scotland, and that there will be a referendum whenever it seems likely that independence would win.

            Seven years since Indy1 in 2016 would be 2023, which is the sort of timescale that the SNP is contemplating. If it takes a bit longer, then all well and good. Gove is no longer saying that there will be no Indy2 before the next GE in 2025. He has changed his position, as he was liable to, to accept the possibility that there will be Indy2 if the GFA sort of conditions are met. Referendums can take place in Scotland whenever the conditions are met. ‘Never’? NI incalcitrance has never stopped anything in NI and it certainly will not stop anything in Scotland. So keep dreaming.

            • Malcopian says:

              Yes, and the day will come when Mirror is rewarded for his part in all this. Proudly he will stand before the Queen to receive the OBE. She deftly lifts his kilt and pins it to his scrotum. ‘Mirror, where’s yer troosers!’ she shrieks, as the corgis rush to lick up his blood. 😉

            • Malcopian says:

              In truth, I do think Scotland needs to become independent to resolve all this. As does England, and then we English can begin to try to resolve our democratic deficit. Away with our “first past the post” electoral system, I say. More town and city mayors and local democracy are what we need.

              Before then, we need a big discussion about what it means to be English. As the Irishman Fintan O’Toole has pointed out, it’s centuries since England stood truly alone, and we need to work out what we want an independent England to stand for.

            • eLIZAbeth Draculesti (house of the serpent), to use her real name, is always drawing blood. Even her dogs drink it.

  23. Yoshua says:

    The cash flow from the vaccine is probably to nice for Pfizer to make them disregard all the dangers with ADE.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-28/pfizer-expects-covid-vaccine-sales-to-top-33-billion-this-year

    • JesseJames says:

      Pretty sweet money flow…no liabilities, near monopoly, gov backed guarantee of future cash flow….dam, we must be living in an infinite cash flow environment!

  24. Student says:

    [—] Ivermectin, a drug used to fight parasites in third-world countries, could help reduce the length of infection for people who contract coronavirus for less than a $1 a day, according to recent research by Sheba Medical Center.
    Nearly 72% of volunteers treated with ivermectin tested negative for the virus by day six. In contrast, only 50% of those who received the placebo tested negative.
    In addition, the study looked at culture viability, meaning how infectious the patients were, and found that only 13% of ivermectin patients were infectious after six days, compared to 50% of the placebo group.
    “Our study shows first and foremost that ivermectin has antiviral activity. It also shows that there is almost a 100% chance that a person will be non-infectious in four to six days, which could lead to shortening isolation time for these people,” Schwartz said. “This could have a huge economic and social impact.”
    The study appeared on the health research sharing site MedRxiv. […]

    https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-scientist-says-covid-19-could-be-treated-for-under-1day-675612

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Thanks for the link. I think that part of the excuse that the medical field has for not approving ivermectin for treating COVID is that higher doses are needed than have generally been approved for treating parasites. They can use the excuse that they are not certain that ivermectin is safe at the higher doses.

      • Student says:

        You are welcome Gail and many thanks for your considerations.

        I hope you and who follows this fundamental blog would like to accept a little bit of humor tonight (EU time) about Ivermectin story 🙂

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Thank! Nice. The question is indeed, “How long?”

    • Fast Eddy says:

      ‘Pfizer and Moderna, the manufacturers of two of the most effective COVID-19 vaccines’

      Effective in what way? Maiming and killing … and breeding increasingly problematic variants?

  25. Yoshua says:

    Pfizer estimates that their revenue for vaccine sales in 2021 will be $33B with $10B in profits.

    Now they even raised the vaccine price for the European contract. They know that everyone needs their booster. They have started to act like drug dealers. Well…

    What you want man? A booster? Relax man! You are sweating! I got good stuff for you man! You got the money?

  26. MG says:

    The frozen coffee plantations in Brazil from above…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDmGY0nvcQc

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAZW9tcMqVw

    The things come and go in this world, as one of the children of the Minas says:

    Milton Nascimento – Encontros e Despedidas

    • Xabier says:

      Come and go, ebb and flow……

      One of the great noble ladies of the Middle Ages had a wise motto:

      ‘Fortune Misfortune’

      In other words, ‘I’ve seen it all, baby!’

      But did she ever have to do without coffee?

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        This is a big reason that trade and stores of commodities have been valued through the ages. A major function of government has been to help enable these services.

    • Coffee’s robust back-up bean isn’t as resistant to climate change as once thought
      Farming of both Robusta and Arabica beans will have to adjust to a new climate

      Rebecca Dzombak

      Biogeochemistry

      University of Michigan

      May 26, 2020

      The headline “Coffee could suffer under climate change!” is nothing new. Farmers and scientists have known for decades that Coffea arabica, the plant that supplies about 60 percent of the world’s coffee, is sensitive to temperatures higher than those found in their native range in the East African highlands. Studies on arabica plants’ response to climate stresses, such as extreme cold, heat, and drought, have shown that coffee yield and quality decrease in less-than-optimal growing conditions. Outside of their ideal temperature — too cold or too hot — the arabica beans can’t grow big enough, and their taste and caffeine content suffer. With the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicting higher temperatures, more frequent and severe droughts, and greater seasonal changes in the Bean Belt, things don’t look good for arabica coffee beans.

      Another coffee plant, Coffea canephora (known colloquially as robusta), supplies the other approximately 40 percent of the world’s coffee. It’s generally considered to be of lower quality than Arabica and fetches a lower price, but it’s easier to grow. Its name alludes to the fact that robusta plants endure greater seasonal swings, hotter temperatures, and more droughts than arabica. Robusta can put up with a lot, climatologically speaking, which is why coffee growers and scientists have been predicting that robusta could be the main provider of coffee as the world warms.

      The end is near….no coffee for you!

  27. Fast Eddy says:

    Assume they will follow the UK lead and boost everyone…. the idea is to expedite Devil Covid …

    China is studying if it is necessary to give booster Covid-19 vaccine shots to vulnerable groups such as the elderly, people with underlying diseases and those who work in high-risk areas.

    There is not enough evidence yet to suggest that a third shot is needed for everyone, Mr Wang Huaqing, an expert with the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, said at a press briefing on Saturday (July 31).

    The country recorded 328 new locally transmitted cases in July, almost equalling the amount of cases reported in the previous five months combined, National Health Commission spokesman Mi Feng said at the same briefing.

    https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/china-mulls-covid-19-booster-shots-for-some-as-delta-variant-spreads

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Countries around the world are struggling with this issue now. Even if China damped down the earlier spike in cases, it is not clear that it can this time, without badly affecting industry.

  28. Yoshua says:

    The viral load is equal for the vaccinated and the unvaccinated for 6 days, then the vaccinated have an advantage to the unvaccinated. Malone wants to see if there’s a difference between the newly vaccinated and those vaccinated 6 months ago, to see if there’s a waning efficiency.

    It’s in the waning phase the virus evolves immune escape. Would the immune escape also affect those with natural antibodies? Or, will it only affect the ones with vaccine induced antibodies that are suboptimal to natural antibodies?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidLWindt/status/1421876532017090563

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This is a direct link to the study:
      https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1.full.pdf

      I would be careful about using this article to prove anything. As understand the article, the chart shown has to do with how long it takes people to make the antibodies needed to recover from the illness, with those with the vaccine coming out ahead.

      The article is very supportive of more vaccinations. Partly, this is based on the finding that vaccinated people seem to have less severe illnesses than those who were not vaccinated, and seem to recover more quickly. The vaccinated are, on average, of older age, making this a more difficult hurdles.

      Also, the authors put forth the hypothesis that people with vaccines will infect fewer others, because they will tend to shed the virus for a shorter period. Somehow, the authors overlook the issue of there being more cases with no symptoms at all. This folks will be clueless that they have a problem, and will be out visiting stores and restaurants.

      The article says,

      “Vaccine-breakthrough infections will continue to be observed, especially with genetic drift and selection pressures resulting in emergence of newer VOCs [variants of concern]; however, it is likely that there will be a shift toward milder disease spectrum with more widespread implementation of vaccination programs.”

      What in the world! There is no reference to the belief that there will be a shift toward milder cases, and they mention the selection pressure issue.

      I hope this article doesn’t make it through peer review!

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Looking at the article further, it has some interesting data on the severity of illness for its two groups: vaccinated and unvaccinated. It is clear the vaccinated do quite a bit better. They have many fewer symptoms. I would guess that most of them would not connect the illness with COVID delta.

        • DB says:

          Yet the results from Israel in June indicate otherwise (vaccinated faring no better than unvaccinated and maybe somewhat worse).

          • Mike Roberts says:

            Which results? At the end of the month of June, around 50% of adult cases were in vaccinated people but maybe 70% of adults were vaccinated at that point. So the unvaccinated would have to have been infected at more than twice the rate of the vaccinated to end up with half the case. So the vaccinated fared better.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Partly, this is based on the finding that vaccinated people seem to have less severe illnesses than those who were not vaccinated, and seem to recover more quickly.

        This is bullshit …. It was stated from Day 1 that these vaccines are not sterilizing… we were told that they would stop people from dying – PERIOD.

        If they are actually reducing severe illness and death then great – Covid is OVER.

        No need for Boosters…

        The Boosters will not stop the vaxxed from getting Covid just as the initial Injections do NOT… so why the boosters????

        Yet the UK and Israel are in a mad dash to pump out tens of millions of boosters in August…

  29. Seems like there is at least one other person in England apart from Xabier that does not wear a mask.

    I’m a maskless minority of one
    https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/im-a-maskless-minority-of-one/

    That I am aware of masks are still mandatory in Scotland. The supermarkets still insist you wear one. Recently several smaller shops on Skye and Orkney would not let me in unless I sanitised my hands on entry as well. I don’t sanitise my hands so just back walked out.

    All adults I know, friends, relatives, colleagues, all of them are vaxxed and will be queueing up to get the booster.

    • Mike Roberts says:

      Unless you think that all the adult friends, relatives and colleagues are idiots (as some here appear to think they are), then maybe you should consider that they may have a point.

      • I don’t think they are idiots, not all of them anyway. They have all been well and truly taken in by the non-stop propaganda coming from, in particular, the BBC. And because they are all singing from the same corrupted hymn sheet, they are all 100% sure they are correct and I am wrong. Been here before.

        At the end of the day, there are far too many people on this planet, and our numbers are going to come down drastically by one means or another.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        did mike say something? did anyone hear mike? mike?

    • Colin says:

      In a supermarket I was asked very politely why I was not wearing a mask. I replied that I was taking Ivermectin the same as the Queen and the royal family so we could not get covid as Ivermectin stops the sars-cov2 virus entering our bodies. If you noticed the Queen did not wear a mask or social distance at Ascot or Wimbledon. Taken aback the man walked away

      • ah—but have you even seen Her Maj in your supermarket?

      • hillcountry – retired electronics manufacturing engineer
        Hillcountry says:

        Good on ya for spreading the word!! I hadn’t heard the queen’s family was taking it. That’s a good talking point. Do you know if they’ve been vaccinated? Dr. Pierre Kory was saying that Ivermectin was a safety net for the vaccinated as well as the non-vaccinated. I’m not sure about your contention that Ivermectin stops the virus from “entering our bodies” though. AFAIK it binds the spike protein which helps keep the virus out of cells, which may be what you mean. If you go to PubMed and search the latest paper of Anthony Mawson you will find that retinoid-spillage from the liver could well be the underlying pathogenicity of the virus. “Vitamin A” status is not being discounted in the studies I’ve read, even though it’s at the causation level of 80-plus autoimmune diseases named thus far (as well as others not so designated). Keep up the push-back with those mired in the propaganda fog. I’ll be using you “line” at the earliest opportunity, thanks!

  30. only if I turn to look back Eddy.

  31. Yoshua says:

    A Delta infected, infects another 8?

    Someone calculated that at that point we can’t stop the virus with vaccines, masks and lockdowns…we can only suppress the number of infections.

    8*8*8*8*8*8*8 ~ 2,000,000 … and we turn into India and reach natural immunity.

    Sydney will stay in lockdown forever? China will stay in lockdown forever?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      If the virus keeps mutating, it is never possible to reach herd immunity.

      As a practical matter, it is not possible for countries around the world to afford to keep vaccinating with this high-cost vaccines, either.

    • Tim Groves says:

      This is a bit like the way cousins multiply the farther back you go in the genealogy, or the number of grains of wheat placed on each successive square of the chessboard in that old story, only at a geometrically greater rate. One person infects eight before becoming non infections, that eight go on to infect sixty-four, who in turn infect 512, who in turn infect 4,096, who infect 32,768, who infect 262,144…..

      And since Delta is already in the airways of millions of people, it will soon be, or already is, in the airways of billions, or indeed in of all of us. There can be no stopping it. Which on the whole is a good thing. The knowledge that this virus is truly ubiquitous will help to end the panic.

      Either alles ist kaput or everything is hunky dori. Either way it’s all over bar the shouting, and possibly the torches, pitchforks, tar, feathers, ropes and guillotines.

      By spreading the meme and promoting the narrative that Delta has a very high R factor, the perps have undone themselves. It’s only the stoopidity of the guillible masses that has prevented them from realizing this already.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        I notice that the news from China is China’s Wuhan to test all 12 million residents as Delta variant spreads

        The virus has been reported in quite a number of cities, scattered over the eastern half of China. I doubt that China can keep it under control this time.

      • Xabier says:

        If the fraudsters argue that Delta is both super-infectious and also defying the vaccines, but we are all still standing despite that, then the public ought to conclude that Delta is really no big deal even when things open up as in the UK.

        ‘Why didn’t we all die last week?!’ should be the cry.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Perhaps the Booster will be the trigger…. we should know in the coming months.

          The initial vaccines and the booster(s) were without a doubt developed long before covid…. so there is surely some sinister logic to that….

          What we know (well except normdunc… mike does not matter) is that the Booster ain’t chock full of vitamins and meant to protect us from covid (and give us lustrous complexions).

  32. Student says:

    Please let me warmly suggest to follow this audio interview.
    Expecially from time 4.10.
    It talks about the third dose in Isr. which seems necessary because antibodies are waning on first vaccinated people, but, at the same time, it clearly looks like they are in an experimental study (third dose) of an experimental study (final approval decision for vaccines: 2023).

    Please listen to this audio:

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/daily-briefing-august-1-israelis-turn-guinea-pigs-as-3rd-covid-dose-rolled-out/

  33. Fast Eddy says:

    A Tale of Two Cities – Toronto Unlocks with Delta Circulating – Sydney Imposes Martial Law hahaha

    Australia tightens COVID curbs as Brisbane extends lockdown, army patrols Sydney

    SYDNEY, Aug 2 (Reuters) – Australia’s Queensland state on Monday extended a COVID-19 lockdown in Brisbane, while soldiers began patrolling Sydney to enforce stay-at-home rules as Australia struggles to stop the highly contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus spreading.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-extends-covid-19-lockdown-brisbane-sunday-2021-08-02/

    Like other countries, Canada has been grappling with the rise of the delta variant, thought to be significantly more contagious than the early strain of …

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      So far, 19% of the population has been innoculated.

  34. Fast Eddy says:

    https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/80eb8b37bad50293bffef64ae723b73207f48e37/1072_1137_3545_2127/master/3545.jpg

    Mounted police patrol Bondi Beach in Sydney, Australia, 28 June 2021 with more than five million people in 8 LGAs in Greater Sydney subject to Covid-19 lockdown restrictions.

  35. Fast Eddy says:

    This is what happens when a minion of the Elders rocks the boat… it’s futile so why bother… just make sure you get your snout in the trough and get as much slop as possible..

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/craig-murrays-jailing-latest-move-battle-snuff-out-independent-journalism

    • Xabier says:

      Craig Murray is an insignificant journalist, known to very few,and yet he still gets the sledgehammer treatment.

      Just as that rebel former GP who mildly suggested that vaccines might not be working out all that well, Dr Sam White, is set up to be crucified by his professional body – so concerned to ‘protect the public’.

      The message is crystal clear.

      Both questioned the Russia and Covid narratives publicly, and that will not be tolerated.

      • I don’t get the impression that Craig has understood what is going on re Covid. He took the vaxxine himself and recommended others do the same if I remember correctly. Some of my CV19 posts on his blog got deleted (by the moderator) and whilst there are a few posters who understand and have tried to promote CV19 debate / knowledge on Craig’s blog, they are far outnumbered by hostile posters who are pro-vaccine. I gave up posting on CV19 there.

        I would say his two main crimes, the ones that got him put in jail, were turning up to the court cases of Julian Assange and Alex Salmond, and reporting the proceedings in detail, something which no member of the MSM ever did. Craig’s reporting made it clear that both court cases were beyond farce. In the case of Alex Salmond, 10 women (the ‘victims’) said Alex Salmond committed sexual crimes against them, all except one sexual assault. Craig reported that for all alleged crimes, there were other witnesses who gave evidence, mostly female, that contradicted the statements of the alleged victims (none of which was reported in the MSM).

        The jury of 9 women and 3 men believed the witnesses for the defence (Alex), thus implying most/all the accusers were less than truthful. In accordance with Scot’s law, all the identities of the accusers remain confidential. Craig new them, he saw and heard them all in court, they were apparently all close associates of Nicola Sturgeon (our great leader), as was the judge in both Alex Salmond and Craig’s court cases, same person, Lady Dorrian. Alex’s court case had a jury (not guilty), Craig’s did not (guilty).

        Craig made it clear in his blog that he thought all the accusers with one possible exception were lying, and Nicola Sturgeon was behind the conspiracy – to prevent Alex Salmond from ever returning to Scottish politics.

        Julian Assange, Alex and Craig were all falsely accused of sexual assault and they are now all criminals in the public’s mind – mission accomplished.

        • Tim Groves says:

          Good summation of the Craig Murray story. I had been reading his court reporting and thinking, why are almost no other journalists doing this sort of donkey work?

          The answer seems to be that there are precious few journalists working in this field at the moment. The press and the TV stations these days only employ the equivalent of stenographers.

          BTW, around ten years back, a group of people including me tried to open Craig’s eyes to the lies about nine-11, but to no avail. He was as incapable of jumping the shark on that as he was of seeing through the current vaccine snake-oil push. Despite his undoubted courage, stubbornness, honesty and devotion to justice and common decency, he can be incredibly naive sometimes.

          My message to him now would be: “Craig; at last can you appreciate the viciousness of the beasts you are up against? They will literally stop at nothing to achieve their goals and will try to destroy anybody who gets in the way. Just because you aren’t paranoid, it doesn’t mean they aren’t after you.”

          Also, Craig and Alex are genuine supporters of an independent Scotland. I’m not sure Nicola is. She may have the role of souring people on the idea.

  36. Fast Eddy says:

    According to Evans, the CDC’s study on vaccinated people contracting COVID-19 after large events actually presents stronger evidence of the effectiveness of vaccines.

    https://globalnews.ca/news/8074620/canada-covid-cases-cdc-report-fourth-wave/

    i don’t get it … why the Boosters for 32M in the UK?

    And why did the health minister of Israel say they need boosters too?

    I guess Canada must be different… the vaccines are very effective there… but not in the UK or Israel or Seychelles or Gibraltar or Peru or… etc… and so on…

    Hey norm dunc… are you seeing any incentives tied to the Booster? Maybe a donut? A free pint?

    Maybe they can offer you some masks?

    Or how about this — if you commit quickly you get priority for the Next Booster.

    Or do we start referring to the boosters as the Kill Shots? These will be what energizes the virus and turns it into a Monster…

    “Mass infection prevention and mass vaccination with leaky Covid-19 vaccines in the midst of the pandemic can only breed highly infectious variants.” GVB

    I am thinking more than infectious … deadly.

    normdunc… please get the booster … if you survive then we will monitor you both for Frankenstein Devil Covid

    If one of you is designated as Case 1 — like that flight attendant who they say kicked off AIDS… we can say hey – we knew him!!!

    Maybe you can post Fast Eddy autographed photos before you su.ckum.

  37. Fast Eddy says:

    Paris https://twitter.com/i/status/1421606711253553152

    Resistance is Futile… the Gestapo Gestaps….

  38. Fast Eddy says:

    Over past 12 weeks, critically ill have been 49, compared to 59 in second wave

    Around half admitted to ICUs are under age of 50, and nearly one third under 40

    Wards filling with those most likely to be unvaccinated, including young adults

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9850427/Average-age-seriously-ill-Covid-patient-falls-10-years-49-vaccine-rollout.html

    Starting to smell a lot like Devil Covid… no?

  39. Fast Eddy says:

    “Average age of seriously-ill Covid patient falls by 10 years to 49” – The NHS figures illustrate the dramatic success of vaccines in protecting older adults in Britain, almost all of whom have been double-jabbed.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9850427/Average-age-seriously-ill-Covid-patient-falls-10-years-49-vaccine-rollout.html

    • Xabier says:

      Still small numbers, and it takes nothing much to ‘overrun’ a ward in the NHS.

      More so when all those who were neglected last year are now falling seriously ill and coming into hospitals in crisis.

      The joys of propaganda!

  40. Fast Eddy says:

    Not seeing any flames

  41. Fast Eddy says:

    Hundreds of protesters clash with police and march through streets of Berlin against German government’s Covid restrictions

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9849835/Hundreds-clash-police-Berlin-protest-against-German-governments-Covid-restrictions.html

    • The french protest over last weekend was attended by .2M according to the police, in reality say ~2-5x that number conservatively. So, evidently, there are several further steps ahead to flip it either way, i.e. pop mounts serious rebellion of millions in the streets on work days.. or “make” people afraid as not even daring to walk outside..

      The correlation of psychopathy degree at the helm / top office with the harshest policies applied is evident: FR, *SK and some of the bundeslands inside DE.. sort of “evidence of” pushing the agenda on their best turf at the moment..


      * now trialing vaxylotteries (EUR100k)

      • Fast Eddy says:

        HK had 2M in the streets… basically half the adult population … plenty of violent people….

        This will go nowhere unless they are hell bent on a total rampage… marching around … throwing stuff…futile… you must be willing to die and do things that will invite an extreme response…

        I don’t see that happening… a few bullets would calm the waters

      • Xabier says:

        At the time of the Greek crisis, Merkel memorably said:

        ‘I don’t know why they are moaning, we left them with enough!’

        After vaxxing it will be:

        ‘I don’t know what they are complaining about, they didn’t kill everyone, and most have at least 70% body function left!’

  42. Fast Eddy says:

    Hey … it’s time again to play …

    INJECTION ROULETTE!

    The grand prize is death… but there are a slew of other fantastic prizes you could win including blindness, heart enlargement, blood clots, nerve disorders…

    The more times you play … the more chances you can win!

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/08/01/vaccine-booster-shots-32m-begin-next-month/

    • Xabier says:

      ‘Injection Roulette’ is right: the chance of adverse effects is 1 in 5 – worse in fact that a 6-bullet revolver.

      Of course, many such effects are only ‘mild and transitory’: but you can never know in advance which way it will go.

      And then we have the 65% or so of Dr McCullough’s patients who exhibit some degree of clotting, somewhere in their body, when tested…..

      What a long way we have come since speculating on collapsed supply chains in March 2020.

  43. Fast Eddy says:

    Australia uses helicopters and the ARMY to enforce its ‘Zero Covid’ lockdown as thousands of police flood Sydney to enforce the rules and hand out $500 no-mask fines – with just 17% of adults vaccinated

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9846939/Soldiers-sent-enforce-lockdown-Sydney.html

    Meanwhile in Toronto .. where there are a similar number of cases per day… the lockdown was for the most part lifted… a month ago!!!

    hahahahaha

  44. Fast Eddy says:

    How well do the vaccines protect from death? The two most recent weekly reports from Public Health Scotland give us death data by vaccination status, and by subtracting one from the other we can work out how many Covid patients died in the week July 9th-15th. The results are shown below.

    https://dailysceptic.org/2021/08/02/does-this-data-from-public-health-scotland-show-that-vaccine-effectiveness-against-death-is-just-46/

    Obviously this will continue to fall as the virus strengthens due to the leaky nature of the Injection

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