What allows any type of energy to be sustainable? I would argue that one of the requirements for sustainability is adequate production of taxable revenue. Company managements depend upon taxable revenue for many purposes, including funding new investments and paying dividends to shareholders. Governments depend upon taxable income to collect enough taxes to provide infrastructure and programs for their growing populations.
Taxable income is a major way that “net energy” is transferred to future investment and to the rest of the economy. If this form of net energy is too low, governments will collapse from lack of funding. Energy production will fall from lack of reinvestment. This profitability needs to come from the characteristics of the energy products, allowing more goods and services to be produced efficiently. This profitability cannot be created simply by the creation of more government debt; the rise in the price of energy is tied to the affordability of goods, particularly the goods required by low-income people, such as food. This affordability issue tends to put a cap on prices that can be charged for energy products.
It seems to me that Green Energy sources are held to far too low a standard. Their financial results are published after subsidies are reflected, making them look profitable when, in reality, they are not. This is one of the things that makes many people from the financial community believe that Green Energy is the solution for the future.
In this post, I will discuss these ideas further. A related issue is, “Which type of oil production fell most in the 2018-2021 period?” Many people had expected that perhaps high-cost energy production would fall. Strangely enough, the production that fell most was that of OPEC oil exporters. These oil exporters often have a very low cost of energy production. The production of US oil from shale also fell.
If the ratio of Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROEI) is to be used as a measure of which type of energy best meets our needs, perhaps the list of items to be included in EROEI calculations needs to be broadened. Alternatively, more attention needs to be paid to unsubsidized taxable income as an indicator of net energy production.
[1] According to EIA data, world crude oil production hit a peak of 84.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in the fourth quarter of 2018. Production fell as low as 72.3 million bpd in the third quarter of 2020. Production rebounded to 75.4 million barrels of oil a day, still 9.1 million bpd below peak production in the 4th quarter of 2018.
This drop in oil production was unprecedented. It far exceeded the drop in oil production at the time of the Great Recession of 2008-2009. As of the first quarter of 2021, crude oil production was roughly at its level in 2011. It still has not rebounded very far.
[2] The biggest drop in crude oil production during this period was that of the cartel led by OPEC and Russia. United States’ oil production also fell during this period. Production of the Rest of the World, in total, was fairly flat.
The big concern of OPEC and Russia was that crude oil prices were too low to provide adequate tax revenue for the governments of these countries. This is especially an issue for countries with few other industries besides oil. These oil exporting countries tend to have large populations, with little employment besides government-sponsored projects. Nearly all food needs to be imported, so subsidies for food need to be provided if the many people earning low wages are to be able to afford this food.
If oil prices are high, say $150 per barrel or higher in today’s dollars, it is generally fairly easy for governments to collect enough oil-related taxes. The actual cost of extraction is often very low for oil exporters, perhaps as little as $20 per barrel. The need for tax revenue greatly exceeds the direct expenses of extracting the oil. Companies can be asked to pay as much as 90% of operating income (in this example, equal to $130 = $150 – $20 per barrel, probably only relating to exported oil) as taxes. The percentage varies greatly by country, with countries that have higher costs of production generally paying less in taxes.
When oil companies are asked about their required price to break even, a wide range of answers is possible. Do they just quote the expense of pulling the oil from the ground? If so, a very low answer is possible. If shareholders are involved in the discussions, this is the answer that they would like to hear. Or do they give realistic estimates, including the taxes that their governments need? Furthermore, if the cost of extraction is rising, there needs to be enough profit that can be set aside to allow for the drilling of new wells in higher-cost areas, if production is to be maintained.
Because of the need for tax revenue, OPEC countries often publish Fiscal Breakeven Oil Prices, indicating how high the prices need to be to obtain adequate tax revenue for the exporting countries. For example, Figure 4 shows a set of Fiscal Breakeven Oil Prices for 2013 – 2014.
If a country tries to maintain the same standard of living for its population as in the past, I would expect that the fiscal breakeven price would rise year after year. This would occur partly because the population of OPEC countries keeps rising and thus more subsidy is needed. The fiscal breakeven price would also tend to rise because the easiest-to-extract oil tends to be depleted first. As a result, new oil-related investments can be expected to have higher costs than the depleted investments they are replacing.
In fact, if a person looks at more recently published fiscal breakeven prices, they tend to be lower than the 2013-2014 breakevens. I believe that this happens because oil exporters don’t want to look desperate. They know that attaining such high prices is unlikely today. They hope that by using more debt and reducing the standard of living of their citizens, they can somehow get along with a lower fiscal breakeven price. This is not a long term solution, however. Unhappy citizens are likely to overturn their governments. Such a result could completely cut off oil supply from these countries.
[3] A cutback in oil production is not surprising for the OPEC + Russia group, nor for the United States, given the chronically low oil prices. The profitability was too low for all of these producers.
Oil prices fell in late 2014. Fiscal breakeven prices calculated before that date likely gave a somewhat reasonable estimate of the needed prices for oil exporters to make an adequate profit, at that time. By early 2019, when the first decreases in oil production began, these countries were beginning to become fed up with chronically low oil prices.
It is interesting to note that Qatar, the country with the lowest breakeven price on Figure 4, decided to withdraw from OPEC effective January 1, 2019, rather than reduce its oil production. For Qatar, oil prices in late 2018 and early 2019 were close to adequate. Qatar mostly produces natural gas, rather than oil.
The decrease in US shale oil production reflects somewhat the same low profitability issue as OPEC + Russia exports, with an additional factor added. Besides low prices, there seems to be a well-spacing issue. There are reports that the spacing of shale wells gradually got closer and closer, until the closer spacing became counter-productive. The more closely spaced wells “cannibalized” the output from nearby wells. The extra drilling may also have released needed pressurization, reducing oil availability.
Such a problem would have been a difficult issue to pick up from EROEI analyses because there are not enough of these EROEI studies to see sudden changes. Figure 6 shows the timing of the drop in US oil production, relative to the drop in oil prices:
Figure 6 omits oil from the Gulf of Mexico, because its quantity tends to bounce around, especially when a hurricane hits. Because of this exclusion, the oil shown in Figure 6 reflects a combination of declining oil production from conventional oil wells plus (after about 2011) rising production from shale wells.
Figure 6 shows that production of oil from shale was developed during the 2011 to 2013 period, when oil prices were high. When oil prices suddenly fell in late 2014, shale producers suddenly found production very unprofitable. They cut back on production starting in April 2015. Shale production started rising again in 2017 after prices moved away from their extreme lows. Growth in oil production began to slow in late 2018, when oil prices again began to fall.
The big shutdown in world oil demand associated with the COVID-19 epidemic began in the second quarter of 2020. Shale production fell in response to low oil prices in March through November of 2020. As of April 2021, production does not seem to have rebounded significantly. We have seen reports that workers were laid off, making it difficult to add new production. If, indeed, well-spacing had become too close, this may have played a role in the decision not to ramp up production again. It is quite possible that many drilled but uncompleted wells will permanently remain uncompleted because they are too close to other wells to be useful.
Based on this analysis, it seems likely that US oil production for 2021 will be lower than that for 202o. Ultimately, the lack of adequate profitability can be expected to bring US oil production down.
[4] There are some high-cost oil producers who continue to produce increasing amounts of oil.
The keys to maintaining high-cost oil production seem to be
- Large up front investments to make this production possible with little new investment
- Governments that are not very “needy” in terms of revenue from oil taxes
Even with these considerations, having an unprofitable or barely profitable oil industry weakens a country. Neither Brazil nor Canada is doing very well economically in 2021. These countries will likely reduce new oil investment in the next year or two, if inflation-adjusted oil prices do not rise significantly.
[5] Somehow, “Green Energy” has been allowed to compete in the energy field with huge subsidies. If Green Energy is actually to be successful long-term, it needs to be profitable in the same way that fossil fuel energy needs to be profitable. If wind and solar are truly useful, they need to be very profitable, even without subsidies, so that they can support their governments with taxes.
There tends to be little recognition of the extent of subsidies for renewable energy. For example, allowing the electricity from wind turbines and solar panels to be put on the grid whenever it is generated is a huge subsidy. Such generation mostly substitutes for the coal or natural gas used by electricity-producing plants, rather than the electricity generated by these plants. The many reports we see that compare the cost of intermittent electricity generated by wind turbines and solar panels with the cost of dispatchable electricity generated by fossil fuels are simply misleading.
Furthermore, electricity generated by wind turbines and solar panels doesn’t need to be sufficiently profitable to pay for the much larger grid they require. The larger grid requirement occurs partly because the devices tend to be more distant from users, and partly because the transmission lines need to be sized for the maximum transmission required, which tends to be high for the variable production of renewables.
The lack of adequate profitability of wind and solar on an unsubsidized basis strongly suggests that they are not really producing net energy, regardless of what EROEI calculations seem to indicate.
It might be noted that in past years, oil exporters have been accused of giving large energy subsidies to their oil producing companies. What these oil exporters have been doing is charging their own citizens lower prices for oil products than the high (international) price charged to foreign buyers. Thus, high taxes were collected only on oil exports, not from local citizens. With the fall in oil prices in late 2014 (shown in Figures 5 and 6 below), this practice of differential pricing has largely disappeared.
“Oil subsidies” in the US consist of financial assistance to low income people in the US Northeast who continue to heat their homes with oil. These subsidies, too, have mostly disappeared, with lower oil prices and the availability of less expensive forms of home heating.
[6] It seems to me that an economy really has three different requirements:
- The total quantity of energy must be rising, at least as rapidly as population.
- The types of energy available must match the needs of current energy-consuming devices, or there needs to be some type of transition plan to facilitate this transition.
- There must be enough “net energy” left over, both (a) to fund governments with taxes and (b) to fund any transition to different energy-consuming devices, if such a transition is required.
Thus, in order for a transition to Green Energy to really work, it must be extremely profitable on a pretax, unsubsidized basis, so that it can pay high taxes. The greater the need for a transition to different energy consuming devices, such as heat pumps for buildings and electric vehicles of many types, the greater the need for more net energy generated by Green Energy sources to help facilitate this transition.
High profitability for energy products is normally associated with a very low cost of energy production. Furthermore, the type of Green Energy available needs to be in a very useful form. In a sense, there are really two different energy transitions required:
- The output of intermittent electricity devices must be brought up to grid standards, using a combination such as many long distance transmission, very substantial battery backup, and the use of many devices to provide the electricity with the precise characteristics it needs.
- As mentioned above, if greater use of electricity is to be made, a transition to electric devices is required.
Both of these transitions will require a significant quantity of energy (really net energy not used elsewhere in the system) to accomplish. If fossil fuel energy is being phased out, an increasing share of this net energy will need to come from the Green Energy sector by way of the tax system. Such a system will only work if the Green Energy sector is very profitable on a pre-tax basis.
[7] Figure 8 suggests that the world has a problem with low energy consumption per capita right now.
There is a strong correlation between growth in total energy consumption per capita and how well the economy is doing. The slight downward slide in energy consumption per capita in 2019 indicates that the economy was already doing poorly in 2019. The huge downward shift in 2020 dwarfs the downward slide in 2009, when the world was in the midst of the Great Recession. My earlier research, looking back 200 years, indicates that low growth in energy consumption per capita is likely to lead to conflict among nations and collapses of governments. Epidemics are also more likely to spread in such periods, because greater wage and wealth disparity tends to occur when energy supplies are constrained.
Any shift away from fossil fuel energy to Green Energy will almost certainly mean a huge drop in world energy consumption per capita because the world doesn’t produce very much Green Energy. Such a drop in energy consumption per capita will be a huge problem, in itself. If the Green Energy sector doesn’t generate much taxable income without subsidies, this adds an additional difficulty.
[8] Conclusion: Examination of the EROEIs for various fuels, using calculations the way that they are performed today, gives inadequate information regarding whether a transition to another set of fuels is feasible.
Researchers need to be looking more at (a) the total quantity of energy produced and (b) the profitability of producing this energy. An economy is only possible because of profitable businesses, including energy businesses. A person cannot assume that energy prices will rise from today’s level because of scarcity. Today’s huge debt bubble is producing very high copper and steel prices, but it is not producing correspondingly high oil prices.
Heavily subsidized energy products look like they might be helpful, but there is little reason to believe this to be the case. If Green Energy products are truly producing net energy, we should expect this fact to be reflected in the unsubsidized profits that these products generate. In fact, if Green Energy products are truly producing large amounts of net energy, they should be so profitable that businesses will be rapidly ramping up their production, even without subsidies or mandates.
Responding to a comment by Gail, deep in a thread, so bringing it back to the top level.
Sorry, Gail, when you say “I think that perhaps these are separate conclusions.” are you talking about the two contradictory statements given by Fast Eddy? If so, please explain how they are separate conclusions when they were formed from the same study.
I can’t really check your figures on the cases and hospitalisations (you’ve obviously done some good work with the translations from hebrew) but note that cases are similar between vaxxed and unvaxxed even though the vast majority of adults are vaxxed. Also, since the highest rate of vaxxes will be in older adults and the more vulnerable, they are more likely than younger healthier folks to be hospitalised. This story talks about the hospitalised and those being ventilated. No vaccinated cases need ventilation.
mike – curious… have any kids? have you Injected them?
A brutal 12 months for Evergrande is going from bad to worse as the highly indebted property group’s billionaire chair and its investors contend with financing woes, credit downgrades and a U-turn on an expected payout.
Shares in Evergrande tumbled 12 per cent on Tuesday in Hong Kong after the group, which has almost Rmb2tn ($309bn) of liabilities, announced it would cancel a planned special dividend.
That marked the latest blow for Hui Ka Yan, who was once China’s richest person, thanks to Evergrande’s role in China’s sweeping waves of urbanisation. His personal fortune, which stood at $34bn last July, has taken a substantial hit following a 72 per cent plunge in the developer’s share price over the past year.
Hui would have stood to benefit from Evergrande’s first payout since 2018 given his 70 per cent stake, but its timing had raised eyebrows among investors. Evergrande, one of China’s top property groups, has faced mounting concerns over a potential cash crunch as Beijing seeks to rein in the industry.
Over the past week, a flurry of ominous developments related to Evergrande’s access to financing have wiped billions of dollars off the company’s market value and piled even greater pressure on Hui to navigate relationships with lenders, customers and Beijing.
S&P Global Ratings late on Monday downgraded Evergrande’s credit rating, following similar decisions by Fitch Ratings and Moody’s last month.
“There’s simply not enough cash for Evergrande to repay its upcoming borrowings unless it refinances it or generates enough cash to plug that gap,” said Luther Chai, an analyst at CreditSights, based on the developer’s latest annual report.
As credit conditions tightened in China, scrutiny has fallen on Evergrande’s sales model. As well as borrowing from banks and investors both in China and globally, where it has $6bn in dollar-denominated debt coming due next year, Evergrande has relied heavily on selling properties before it has finished building them to keep cash flowing through the business.
So-called presales, where customers typically borrow through mortgages on top of a deposit to pay for a property, are widespread across China, though rules and requirements vary.
Evergrande shares sold off early last week after a legal notice from authorities in Shaoyang ordered the company to halt presales in the central Chinese city. The city subsequently said the restrictions, which were linked to alleged misuse of funds, would be reversed.
Later in the week, four banks including HSBC ceased providing mortgages for incomplete Evergrande developments in Hong Kong. HSBC declined to comment. The banks are considering reversing the decision, according to Bloomberg News.
In a statement, Evergrande said progress on its Hong Kong projects was “still progressing as planned” and that other banks maintained a positive outlook towards mortgages for uncompleted projects.
“All of those announcements independently aren’t really material but altogether it’s an indication the pressure is really mounting on the group,” said Michel Lowy, chief executive of SC Lowy, a Hong Kong-based investment group. “The likelihood they run out of liquidity in the next few months as a result of that is increasing.”
Andrew Lawrence, Asia property analyst at TS Lombard, said the presales model was “typically unstable”.
“As presales fall, the developer is forced to borrow more, banks ask for more pledged assets and higher guarantees, suppliers ask for earlier payment and presales get worse as the developer cuts prices and end users don’t trust the company to complete the development,” he added.
Hundreds of complaints from frustrated homebuyers about delayed projects appeared on Weibo, the popular Chinese microblogging platform.
One homebuyer in the south-western city of Chengdu said he had paid Rmb1.1m in 2019 for an unfinished Evergrande apartment, but the project had been pushed back and was unlikely to be completed by its due date next July.
“That would be a big blow to my family as we have emptied our savings to make the Rmb300,000 down payment and are under pressure to pay mortgages and rents at the same time,” he added. “I bought the apartment because of Evergrande’s reputation as a Fortune 500 company.”
Evergrande did not respond to a request for comment.
Evergrande’s banking relationships have also come under pressure, raising fears for its ability to refinance. A court in Jiangsu province this month froze Rmb132m of Evergrande deposits at the request of Guangfa Bank as part of a dispute over early repayment terms, triggering a stock sell-off after the order circulated among traders. Evergrande released a statement saying it would sue Guangfa, though it later said the spat had been resolved.
Evergrande said at the end of March that its interest-bearing debt had fallen to Rmb674bn, 23 per cent lower than a year earlier. The government’s “three red lines” policy requires developers to reduce their borrowings based on certain balance sheet metrics.
One outlet for raising cash could be the exotic array of assets that Evergrande has built up. These include a bottled water company, a stake in an electric vehicle maker that is worth more than Ford and even a pig farming venture.
“I believe there is a decent chance that in the next few months, they sell non-core assets, they find themselves a partner, they sell some equity, they raise some money, they deliver,” said Lowy. But, he added, the situation was ultimately “binary” because it came down to how the central government viewed the prospect of a restructuring.
S&P said on Monday that Evergrande was “still an asset-rich company” but cited the risk of it losing further access to funding. It also noted the company had slashed prices on contracted sales to an average of Rmb8,100 per sq m, compared with a peak of more than Rmb10,000.
“The entity has little room to keep cutting prices if it wants to stay profitable,” the rating agency said.
“There’s simply not enough cash for Evergrande to repay its upcoming borrowings unless it refinances it or generates enough cash to plug that gap,”
A few years ago China had 65 ghost cities, allegedly, new cities built from scratch with no-one, or few, living there, built on huge amounts of debt. It is a wonder the property market has not imploded already.
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=china%27s+ghost+cities
Let’s use my time machine on google and search 2000 – 2017 — should the elderly wear masks during flu season
Hmmm not in the tips:
https://dailycaring.com/16-cold-and-flu-prevention-tips-for-seniors-and-caregivers/
Dr Michael Gardam would ask another question – is the science there to justify requiring unvaccinated staff to wear masks?
The Canadian infection control physician has raised eyebrows and some ire amongst his peers by taking an open stand against ‘mask’ policies.
Gardam is a strong proponent of vaccination in general and gets his flu shot every Canadian fall but believes the science falls short of justifying a ‘vaccinate or mask’ approach for those who decline the flu shot – even if they decline for reasons that have little or nothing to do with good science.
Requiring reluctant staff to wear masks all flu season, he argues, just gives ammunition to an already virulent anti-vaccination movement in return for “negligible impact” on patient safety. He believes health providers should encourage healthcare workers to take up the influenza vaccination but save their battles for vaccine campaigns with more impact and scientific clout than those used to justify VOM policies in his native Canada.
https://healthcentral.nz/flu-shot-masking-the-issue/
But the CovIDIOTs are marching around in their masks… not a peep!
“Although mechanistic studies support the potential effect of hand hygiene or face masks, evidence from 14 randomized controlled trials of these measures did not support a substantial effect on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza.”
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article
Interesting, as the propaganda line was that influenza ‘disappeared’ in 2020 because we were all wearing masks….
And STILL… the CovIDIOTS cannot see…
https://twitter.com/i/status/1419833290421272580
It would have been ‘bad’ if the masks were effective, right? Now; since the usual surgical and cloth masks are basically worthless, I guess it is all right to push them for the allure of false safety and MOAR cov1d. Because, cheap shit is running out at an alarming rate.
The real deal is of course N98-N99/FFP3 respirators. I don’t hear Fauci push those, because they actually work.
🤔
A California restaurant has refused to back down after being bombarded with negative press and customer reviews for posting a sign demanding that all diners provide proof that they have not been vaccinated against Covid-19.
With vaccination status increasingly becoming a prerequisite to participate in many ordinary activities, one Huntington Beach eatery has decided to take a slightly different approach to granting privileges based on personal medical decisions.
On its storefront window, Basilico’s Pasta e Vino taped a sign reading: “PROOF OF BEING UNVACCINATED REQUIRED. We have zero tolerance for treasonous, anti-American stupidity. Thank you for pondering.”
The restaurant’s owner, Tony Roman, said that the unorthodox policy is designed to get people thinking as some Southern California businesses begin asking customers for proof of vaccination.
https://www.rt.com/usa/530367-california-restaurant-unvaccinated-only/
Overheard… one Covidiot to another … I guess we can’t go in because we don’t have cards proving we aren’t vaccinated.
Another Covidiot — hmmmppph… I didn’t want to go there anyway … no way I am going to sit near someone fool who might have covid because he’s not vaccinated!!!
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Canada could see a resurgence of COVID-19 cases even if the country manages to fully vaccinate a majority of its population, according to experts.
University of Saskatchewan epidemiologist Nazeem Muhajarine told Global News on Friday that the possibility of new or existing variants of COVID-19 spreading throughout Canada could lead to a possible resurgence in new cases.
As an example, Muhajarine pointed to the small East African island nation of Seychelles which had at least 60 per cent of its population fully vaccinated with either the Sinopharm or AstraZeneca vaccines.
With the majority of that country’s population having already had two shots, the island nation decided to open its borders to tourism — an industry it heavily relied on. That opening, according Muhajarine, eventually resulted in another surge of the virus that was “driven by variants.”
“So you know, we are seeing these cases of countries seeing a resurgence of the virus, and they in fact have lots of people fully vaccinated — and we will see that too, we will see that going forward,” he said.
Concerns over increased social gatherings during the Victoria Day weekend have led several public health officials and frontline workers to brace for a surge in cases.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7883901/covid-19-resurgence-full-vaccination/
I almost pity the CovIDIOTS.
But then I remember how vile and stooooopid they are …. and I take pleasure in reading these articles that notify them of more suffering ahead.
CovIDIOTS = Vermin…
Koonin came to public attention a few years ago, after he wrote a controversial opinion piece for the Wall Street Journal headlined “Climate science is not settled”. It was a response to what he considered the widely held opinion among policymakers and the wider public that, in fact, climate science is settled. His particular concern was that we can’t yet accurately predict what the future climate shifts will be. The book itself is best thought of as the extended version of that op-ed, with added graphs.
We can break down his thesis into, roughly, three areas. One, is that despite “the mainstream narrative among the media and policymakers”, it is hard to be sure that the climate has changed in meaningful ways due to human influence. In particular, floods, rainfall, droughts, storms, and record high temperatures have not become more common, and although the climate is unambiguously warming and sea levels have gone up, it’s hard to confidently separate human influence from natural variability.
Two, he says, climate models are highly uncertain and struggle to successfully predict the past, let alone the future, so we shouldn’t trust confident claims about the climate future. And if we do accept the IPCC’s predictions, they aren’t of imminent catastrophe. Instead, they point to slow change which humanity can easily adapt to, and, broadly speaking, to humanity continuing to prosper.
And three, he continues, there is basically nothing we can do about it anyway, partly because carbon dioxide hangs around in the atmosphere for so long, but mainly because the developing world is developing fast, and using ever more carbon to do so, and actually that’s a good thing.
These are — according to Koonin — all, by and large, only what the IPCC assessment reports and other major climate analyses say. The public conversation, which he says is full of doom and apocalypse and unwarranted certainty, has become unconnected from the state of the actual science. And he blames scientists — and policymakers, the media and the public — for that disconnection.
https://unherd.com/2021/07/the-corrosive-tribalism-of-climate-science/
Can we trust the climate scientists?
https://unherd.com/2021/07/the-corrosive-tribalism-of-climate-science/
A couple of points the author makes:
“climate models are highly uncertain and struggle to successfully predict the past, let alone the future, ”
and
” there is basically nothing we can do about it anyway, partly because carbon dioxide hangs around in the atmosphere for so long, but mainly because the developing world is developing fast, and using ever more carbon to do so”
I don’t know where Koonin gets that first idea (that model struggle to predict the past). There are plenty of references available on a simple search to show that hind-casting of models is pretty accurate. For example, from this article, which says “Despite a small amount of uncertainty, scientists find climate models of the 21st century to be pretty accurate because they are based on well-founded physical principles of earth system processes.” This article is pretty good, too.
He gives himself an out with the second quote in Gail’s comment. Even if he writes a load of rubbish, it doesn’t matter because CO2 is long lived. Well, at least that shows he kind of understand that human emitted CO2 is the main culprit here and continuing development will make it worse.
The CO2 is so tied in with the economic system that we will all be dead long before any of the supposed benefits of saving the CO2.
Also, it is, in some sense, very easy to save the CO2, because the price of fossil fuels does not rise high enough for us to extract them. We seem to be past both peak oil and peak coal now.
We have found an excuse to shut down the economy (namely, COVID), so as to make as good use of what fossil fuels we can get out, now, so the economy doesn’t collapse any faster than necessary. We can’t really open back up, but this is a detail that governmental leaders can’t tell anyone. They have to concoct COVID-related stories to explain our need to keep the economy operating in a very restricted mode.
The climate models assume growing fossil fuel consumption for many years.
I hate to sound like a scratched record but the climate models do not assume any particular use of fossil fuels. Otherwise, it wouldn’t be possible to run the models backwards to see how they match up to what actually happened (in those situations, they can plug in actual emissions). When the models are used to try to project what may happen in different scenarios then the projected (and mostly unrealistic) fossil fuel use is plugged in to provide possible emissions data. These are the model runs, not the model itself.
You’re right that fossil fuel use is tied into our economic system. This is unlikely to change markedly, any time soon. However, if some miracle happened and societies cut fossil fuel use completely, current research suggests that global temperature would plateau.
Even though economies can’t open back up, that is what some governments seem to be trying to do. The UK removed all restrictions even as cases were rising. They have since fallen every day but cases from the relaxation would only just now be starting to show up, so it will be interesting to see what happens.
The “models” don’t assume any particular input of fossil fuels, but they cannot be run without an external input that directly or indirectly assumes what those fossil fuels will be. The assumption is made that the world economy can grow forever, and that it will continue require fossil fuels, although perhaps in somewhat smaller proportion compared to growth. It is this problem that makes the output of the models basically useless.
MORE suh!
https://e360.yale.edu/features/despite-pledges-to-cut-emissions-china-goes-on-a-coal-spree
https://2c36lz2t15o4iimt12sftd8l-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/word-image-4.gif
Hahahahahaha…. does that bring a tear to your eye?
But the models themselves are pretty good.
I don’t think the model runs are useless from the point of view of policy making (not that policies are pursued). Remember than most of the world doesn’t think resources, including fossil fuels, will ever run out (or that any drop off can be substituted for in a timely fashion) and that we can extract at as high a rate as we want. In that situation, model runs of various scenarios (with very varied fossil fuel use) are useful. It is not a modeling error if organisations like the IEA can’t come up with realistic projections of fossil fuel production.
I am so tired of this because it’s already been chewed to death dozens of times over the past couple of decades.
This comment made in 2014 at WUWT by someone going by the name of Phil seems pertinent to the discussion:
“See – the problem is that the warmists claim to know that there lurks a danger in the future. So they’re kinda predicting something, even though they go to great sophistry to avoid the word prediction. Nevertheless we all know that the question is, do the models have predictive skill.
Now OF COURSE they can “fix” their models to get a better hindcasting. But what does it do to the predictive skill of the model? Does the predictive skill go up or down?
Well how could one test that? A question that the warmist climate modelers have evaded for the last 40 years and will continue to evade for the rest of their careers, of course.
And what does it do to the claims of the warmist climate modelers that their models are objective pure incorporations of physical laws themselves? Well it wrecks this preposterous claim completely of course.”
One can test it by hindcasting and by checking how well past projections (with less developed models) match what we’re now seeing. There is plenty of information out there about this if you really are interesting in finding an answer.
If we are not concerned with asking the question, “what might happen if we do this”, then we can ignore models. If we would like to have some idea of what our actions might do then we will need some models to help answer that question. If you have better models, then use them and tell us about them.
Seems like my reply didn’t make it. Very briefly, climate models have done a pretty good job on hindcasting, so Koonin is wrong there (for example, see here and here).
The second quote sort of absolves Koonin of any errors because we can’t do anything about it anyway. This is also wrong though, as Gail has made clear, doing something about it has economic and social costs.
Meanwhile Leo built a resort barely cms above sea level.
What more do you have to know????
You mean to tell me you trust “Leo” to be one major source for your stance on science!?
Thank you, Ed, I do not need to know more on your limitations.
I, for one, care not what “Leo” or for that matter “Al Gore” feels or does in regard to this topic.
Major University Academies and Scientific Institutes are my sources and not not disputes the conclusions of the IPCC. Perhaps you can list one that does?
Some people separate “climate models” from the “inputs put into the climate models.”
The climate models are what the climate scientists have been putting together. They may indeed be wonderful. I don’t know.
The problem I see is that they use external inputs of what future carbon emissions will be, and these are absurdly high. The climate scientists don’t understand where the error is taking place. It isn’t in their model. It is in assuming that the world economy and its fossil fuel inputs can grow indefinitely in the future. If this could indeed happen, their models might be correct. But the model inputs assume the impossible.
Well, Gail, Models are just one dimension the Scientists utilize in their determination of the makeup of the body of work in the case for CC.
There is ongoing research and tracking of observations in the field to provide a measure to determine the validity of such.
Again, Basic Physics and Chemistry is the base of Atmospheric and Oceanic Disciplines.
As you, yourself, have stated time and time again.
Unfortunately, it seems many are stuck in their mindset and ignore what is happening.
Perhaps that is the limitation of the communication process we, humans, have at our disposal. Not everyone is able to be a field scientist and witness the actual.
yes to all of that herbie…
Let’s move on … where do we go from here?
Please list your solutions:
1. ___________
Yes of course Herbie… and every thought Saddam had WMD…. and remember when they all thought the earth was flat?
Anyways.. I will give you the win … just to shut you up.
Let’s discuss solutions to the problem.
Al Gore is featured near the end 🙂 https://www.bitchute.com/hashtag/planet-of-the-humans/
Perhaps you should refer to the IPCC, Ed, instead of Al Gore, a politician, or Leo the Actor. BTW, the IPCC projections are based on consensus and is the most conservative body of agreement. Even so, their report, if you ever trouble yourself to do look at it, has a low, medium, or high future projection based at Gails concerns.
Even so, from what we are witnessing the IPCC has missed their mark with the low outlook.
😢 😭 Boohoo.
BTW, why am I troubling myself with all of this? Simple, this is what will create the chaos and collapse of the network system we are focused upon.
The IPCC reports have nonsense views of future fossil fuels embedded in them.
herbie … you need to take a break from all this … and research the solutions…
FE is standing by … ready to implement them immediately … but only so long as I get to continue living large….
Thank you for your opinion, Gail!
I AGREE, they are nonsense views.
My opinion is they are much too lac and do NzoT take into account the numerous positive feedback loops already in okay that means irreversible climate change is already in force and will lead to the likely end of BAU…or worse.
“climate models are highly uncertain and struggle to successfully predict the past, let alone the future, ”
My understanding is that climate models do not ‘predict the past’. The climate of the past million years or so is reasonably well known, the biggest driver being the Milankovitch cycles (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles). I could be wrong, but I thought that climates of the past were used to fine-tune the models, not the other way round.
Milankovitch cycles describe the collective effects of changes in the Earth’s movements on its climate over thousands of years. The term is named for Serbian geophysicist and astronomer Milutin Milanković. In the 1920s, he hypothesized that variations in eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession resulted in cyclical variation in the solar radiation reaching the Earth, and that this orbital forcing strongly influenced the Earth’s climatic patterns.
Similar astronomical hypotheses had been advanced in the 19th century by Joseph Adhemar, James Croll and others, but verification was difficult because there was no reliably dated evidence, and because it was unclear which periods were important.
Now, materials on Earth that have been unchanged for millennia (obtained via ice, rock, and deep ocean cores) are being studied to indicate the history of Earth’s climate. Though they are consistent with the Milankovitch hypothesis, there are still several observations that the hypothesis does not explain.
The above is from Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles
So the solution is to stop the Earth’s movements… we need to untilt the Earth!!!
Predicting the past just means that the models are run backwards, plugging in what is known about emissions, land-use change and so on, to see how well they can “predict” what happened in the past, for which we have measurements and can thus check the model’s performance. But, yes, what happened in the past can help tune the models so we can better project what will happen in the future, if certain policies and resource use are enacted.
I don’t think that policies make any difference, unless they indirectly lead to starving out some of the world’s population. Cutting off international tourism can be expected to increase the number of people with inadequate food supply. Cutting off the need for fancy clothing will have some of this effect. Cutting off the need for imported flowers will likely have the effect.
Trying to switch from oil powered vehicles to electricity is irrelevant in my opinion. Adding wind turbines and solar panels is basically useless.
Making machines more efficient usually has the effect of allowing more people to afford them. It is counter-productive. (Jevons’ Paradox).
“there is basically nothing we can do about it anyway, partly because carbon dioxide hangs around in the atmosphere for so long”
How long it stays in the atmosphere is more of an open question than IPCC would like to admit. They use the Bern model to describe the carbon cycle. This model assumes that the oceans absorption of carbon from the atmosphere will be very slow. The steady state chemical equlibrium is around 1 CO2 in the atmosphere for every 60 in the ocean. So, at the steady state there is not much effect from human carbon emissions, most of it will be sucked down into the oceans. The question is how much time is required to reach this state.
Moreover, a warmer ocean will dissolve less CO2. If temps are in fact increasing then the oceans will contribute to a significant portion of the increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Its a mess to separate human contribution from the oceans contribution to or increased CO2 levels. High CO2 will correlate with warmer climate.
You only know if the climate has changed if you look back on thirty years’ records and notice a trend. The most important trend is temperature averaged over the globe and over time. The conclusion is that the average daily temperature is rising faster than the models predicted.
The predictions in the IPCC reports are based on consensus. If 100 scientists think the ocean will rise 2mm per year and 20 think it will rise only 1 mm per year, then the report states that the oceans will rise 1 mm per year because there is a consensus that the rise will be AT LEAST 1mm.
The models use the finite element method with grids, IIRC, on the order of 100 miles horizontally. Why? Computational time to run a model 30 years into the future is expensive.
Some things are not well understood, but these are mainly 2nd order or 3rd order effects, such as how the interplay between slightly higher temperatures in the Sahara will affect tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa and form tropical cyclones over warmer seas, or how does doubling carbon dioxide concentration affect plant uptake?
These are minor compared to the biggie, and that is the greenhouse effect from carbon dioxide concentration. The quantity of heat storage per unit of concentration (ppm) isn’t too difficult to get right, but where does the heat go? Does it go into the Gulf Stream where it is transported to the ocean depths where it warms the frozen deep for a hundred years, or is it absorbed by low albedo rock in Afghanistan? The calculation for heat transfer is easy and the calculation for effect is difficult, but keep this in mind, the heat has to go somewhere.
As to how long before catastrophic effects take hold? I think it’s merely a few years. The things we have to worry about are average soil moisture in the grain growing states and the millimeters of rise in the canals of Miami. The former because as soil moisture drops, crop yield drops. The latter because when all those fancy boats parked in front of lavish houses can’t make the journey to the Intracoastal Waterway, property values collapse and you can guess the financial impact on Miami, and elsewhere.
It’s the incremental effects we must be aware of and they are worsening at the same time all the other bad trends (Covid/lockdowns, funny money, droughts) play out.
Deagle might be onto something.
You do understand that the kklllimate changes… and it changed rather rapidly at times… long before we burned the first barrel of oil?
You do understand the long term carbon cycle, and how carbon dioxide concentration has been driving climate change regardless of short term blips? It is almost as you think you have proven something when the only thing you proved is your ignorance.
oh surely not?
James, in the ice core records, every time the carbon dioxide level reaches a high point, temperature goes down, and centuries later, carbon dioxide starts going down. And every time carbon dioxide reaches a low point, temperature goes up, and centuries later carbon dioxide starts going up.
Do you understand that the ice cores tell us unequivocally that changes in atmospheric temperature lead changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and not the other way around, and that both of them are led by changes in ocean temperature?
It is almost as you think you have proven something when the only thing you proved is your ignorance.
Now, if you’ll go and check out the ice core records, you will see whether I’m right or wrong. Then you can consider the implications of what the ice core records are telling us. And with any luck your ignorance will be replaced by knowledge, understanding, comprehension, or even enlightenment on this subject. And wouldn’t that be nice?
I await the listing of the solutions!
It would be nice if you were capable of understanding. While biological carbon dioxide is the primary determinant of long term temperature averages, there are other forcing factors which include declination, solar activity and geologic processes that give off carbon dioxide gas (volcanoes) or absorb carbon bearing compounds (subduction). What you are having trouble understanding is that although something other than carbon dioxide level can kick off a warming or cooling trend, the biological carbon cycle provides an amplifying feedback and so the carbon dioxide level at one point in time determines the future temperature at which infrared radiation out equals broadband radiation in, the total effect of the imbalance (heat storage) isn’t realized until much later.
So yes, you can graph a curve that shows temp start to rise before carbon dioxide concentration starts to rise, but until you were to graph the equilibrium temperature (theoretical) against the actual temperature, thus accounting for the lag time for planet earth to reach equilibrium, you haven’t proven anything.
It is almost as if you don’t understand infrared reradiation from a black body, heat storage, forcing sensitivity, and all the other things you have to know to talk intelligently about AGW.
Boring Boring Boring.
I want to know what I can do to stop the planet from boiling.
Forgot to ask: Do you believe in the theory of the Greenhouse effect first proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824 … and more fully quantified by Svante Arrhenius in 1896?
If so, then can you tell me the general idea?
If not, then why is the earth at the temperature it is?
Solutions james?
Alarmists are going to be alarmed Ignoramuses are going to ignore
But this has been hashed out in countless fora
Many many many times before
Peddlers are going to peddle
All kinds of trash and junk
But most of what they’re selling
Is easy to debunk
+ + + + +
Here James, I’m giving you a golden opportunity to improve your education free of charge or to demonstrate your inability to learn the difference between science fact, science fiction and fantasy.
This is from Ron Clutz last year:
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”–George Santayana 1905
Interesting that Svante Arrhenius was elevated as the founder of AGW belief system. He was ignored for many decades after Knut Ångström and his assistant Herr Koch showed that reducing CO2 concentrations did not affect the amount of IR absorbed by the air. That’s almost as interesting as discovering that shutting down the global economy over fear of Covid19 has little effect on atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
As a fellow Scandinavian, Ångström agreed with Arrhenius that his projected warming would be a good thing, even in the lower estimates Svante made later on. Still, Ångström had two objections to Arrhenius’ conjecture about global warming from increasing CO2. In 1900, Herr J. Koch, laboratory assistant to Knut Ångström, did not observe any appreciable change in the absorption of infrared radiation by decreasing the concentration of CO2 up to a third of the initial amount. This result, in addition to the observation made a couple of years before that the superposition of the water vapour absorption bands, more abundant in the atmosphere, over those of CO2, convinced most geologists that calculations by Svante Arrhenius for CO2 warming were wrong.
Ångström’s 1900 paper (english translation) was About the importance of water vapor and carbon dioxide during the absorption of the Earth’s atmosphere Title is link to pdf. Conclusion:
Under no circumstances should carbon dioxide absorb more than 16 percent of terrestrial radiation, and the size of this absorption varies quantitatively very little, as long as there is not less than 20 percent of the existing value. The main alteration caused by a decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide content, is that the absorption exerted by the carbon dioxide (about 16 percent of the radiation) is only completed by a thicker atmospheric layer, so that the heat is a little more dispersed in the atmosphere.
Many decades passed without reference to Arrhenius until the AGW movement took off in the 1980s and advocates wanted an ancient founder for their ideas. Obviously, Ångström’s position had to be destroyed by articles at RealClimate and Wikipedia (the same team after all.) So it is now declared that Arrhenius was right and Ångström wrong, based on some claims about “line-broadening” and the famous raised Effective Radiating Level (ERL). Ångström’s experimental results were not overturned but were deemed the” Saturation Fallacy”. Meanwhile,today’s climate realists acknowledge that the IR absorption by CO2 is logarithmic with diminishing returns. Attempts to find the raised ERL in modern satellite and balloon datasets have also failed, but alarmists are undaunted.
https://rclutz.com/2020/05/25/pick-your-a-team-arrhenius-or-angstrom/
I am tempted to write, “Manners, Eddy,” but it seems the question “what to do?” is relevant.
Three parts.
1. It’s a predicament, not a problem. Maintaining the 21st century energy-wasting lifestyle is not possible for all. I suspect the richie rich rich think they’ll set themselves up as techno-privy nerds with the survivors of us proles as serfs. I think they forget about things like pitchforks and torches, or the modern version, a military junta.
So step 1: Plan on and think in terms of localized, agrarian society with limited technology. Live somewhere this is possible.
2. You can’t survive civil upheaval, so don’t be where there is turmoil. I actually got this from someone who lived through the Mau Mau. His trick? He sided with the rebels.
Don’t be where there is trouble; be someplace else.
3. Collapse now. Understand that there will be at least three recognizable phases:
a) Panic. If you have the means not to be subjected to the stressors that would drive most socially correct suburbanites to resort to mayhem, and you aren’t around, you’re in better shape than those who are objects of the subjects.
b) Early transition: While some industry is available, continue to acquire long lasting machines that you can fuel. If they give you an advantage over your neighbors for ten years, that is significant.
c) Settle in: Practice doing things the old fashioned way. Grow garden vegetables (This is how my grandparents stayed comfy during the Depression. Poor, but comfy.) Cook from scratch. Heat your home with a Soapstone re-burner – also good for baking bread. Live some place where firewood wll heat your house and the summers won’t kill you.
Fifty years ago, strict fuel conservation and recognition of the problem would have given us several more decades to deal with the problems of no energy, oppressivett heat, and a few extra billion mouths to feed.
As it is, for the majority, there is no solution. For a very few, adaptation and seclusion might work. Be one of the few, the proud, the well fed.
Ahhh… become a doomie prepper….
Let’s try the Fast Eddy Challenge and repor back. Try this for a month
1. Use no electricity or petrol
2. Cut all your wood by hand including felling trees and splitting them
3. Wash your clothes by hand
4. Eat ONLY what you grow – you can’t touch the canned food or anything bought in a shop – because soon after collapse hits that won’t be available – so I want you to be ready for that
5. Buy nothing. Absolutely nothing.
We can’t practice defending your doomie prepper utopia (haha just wait a few days into this…) against bad guys who come for your food and to rape your wimmin…
We also can’t chuck toxic substances from a spent fuel pond onto your land … veggies… animal feed… air… and water…
But hey — the one month unplugged test is a start… let’s see how you do with that 🙂
Of course James will not walk the walk… because James knows that he’d burst his fragile delusion about ‘living the good life’… One too many Scott Nearing books James?
I want to know what I can do to stop the planet from boiling.
Fewer people buring renewable organics.
Yes but fewer people results in the collapse of the global economy.
So there would be no oil – and there would be the problem of how do you manage 4000 spent fuel ponds when industrial civilization has collapsed?
“Do you believe in the theory of the Greenhouse effect first proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824 … and more fully quantified by Svante Arrhenius in 1896?”
That’s a fascinating question. Why should I believe in this theory or disbelieve it? What place does belief have in science?
That’s the big difference between scientific theories and Tinkerbell. The validity of a scientific theory is unrelated to whether you or I or any number of people believe in it or not.
I will go further and agree with Karl Popper: “I am opposed to the thesis that the scientist must believe in his theory.”
By the way, this link leads to a photocopy of On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground, the seminal paper by Svante Arrhenius that has become a sort of holy scripture among Warmists.
Anyone interested in the globbly wobbly theory could do no better than to start from this paper, not in order to believe or disbelieve in the theory, but to try to gain a better understanding of what Arrhenius was trying to postulate.
https://www.rsc.org/images/Arrhenius1896_tcm18-173546.pdf
Dear Tim Groves says:
The question I asked is a setup for a fool. If fool “doesn’t believe that greenhouse nonsense,” then why is the earth’s avg temp what it is?
If fool does “believe” in a stable temp based on historic carbon dioxide levels, then what happens when the levels double? This is the primary question.
You’re right. It is science and a person shouldn’t have to choose between believe and disbelieve, but rather than understand or not.
So, make the question, “Do you agree …?” Same setup.
I use “believe” instead of “agree” b/c idiots who deny AGW tend not to understand b/c not capable, so it becomes for them a question of belief.
Do you believe two plus two equals four?
I don’t think that people understand that science based on models is incredibly “iffy.” Every scientist builds his/her models as if the world has no limits. They assume that all of the fossil fuels that we have the technology to extract can be extracted, even if common sense would suggest that the effort to do so would be absurd relative to the benefit. Thus, we have a huge amount of coal under the North Sea that can (and will) be extracted. On the oil side, it looks as if Venezuela is our oil savior. Anyone with any common sense at all can see that these assumptions are bizarrely absurd.
Even Biden and the IEA assume that OPEC and its friends can easily ramp up production later this year, if desired. We will get to see whether this is true or not. I am willing to bet the demand will stay low enough that this supposed ability to ramp up will not really come into play. A self-organizing system works strangely. This is another issue that modelers have not figured out.
One of our big problems with models is the fact that economists continue to build models as if the world has no limits. They assume that the future will look exactly like the past. They assume that demand will rise with population. With this higher demand, more fossil fuels can be extracted. They assume that prices will rise faster than diminishing returns raises the cost of depletion. Climate models have built into them this erroneous assumption, subscribed to by nearly all economists.
Once a person understands the hidden fallacies built into the “scientific” models, a person has a lot less faith in them.
Solutions?
I am standing by ready to implement.
There there now James…. the arctic is melting … the antarctic is melting … temperatures are getting hotter…
So what should we do? What’s the solution James?
If you have not got one then what’s he point of your continuous posting of this worthless crap?
I’m afraid, Eddy, that the young believers in the various “sciency” cults have been so thoroughly indoctrinated that it is impossible in the initial stages to reach directly them through logic, facts and appeals to reason.
They have a religious zealot’s conviction that they have found their Single Source of Truth and when others point out the obvious failings in their teachings, they can get quite irate about it.
We have to make allowances for this. The irrational rage they exhibit can be cathartic, and can serve as the first step in their deprogramming. But deprogrammed they must be, gently and compassionately if possible, if they are not to become lifelong DelusiSTANIs.
I am hoping of I insist on solutions they will either go away.. shut up .. or trot out renewable energy and EVs.
As to how long before catastrophic effects take hold? I think it’s merely a few years.
People of a green persuasion have been saying this sort of thing for half a century now.
In the mid-1970s, I was watching an Open University program where Paul Ehrlich was being interviewed about the global environmental crisis. he was asked how long we had. His answer, which I quote from memory, was: “My daughter is seventeen years old now. I doubt if she’ll see thirty-five.”
There is hardly any online info available on Ehrlich’s daughter Lisa Marie that I can find. So I don’t know if she’s still with us. But Paul and his wife Anne are still going strong and are as doomy as ever.
Still, your thinking may be correct. Catastrophe is on the cards.The road human society is on leads in that direction. My thinking is that it won’t come as a result of climate change per se, but as a result of our no longer collectively being able to extract enough from nature to meet our basic needs. We’ve built a society that expands to exploit many things up to the limit, which means there’s no margin remaining when even modest changes in the environment or reductions in the amounts of resources available force us to tighten our belts and prevent our complex systems from functioning.
Living close to the limits means pressing up against them from time to time.
I should have said the very first effects will be here in a few years. Some of the boats in Miami canals have trouble getting out; they must wait for low tide. Miami is not the world, but it is a good, first indicator of the effects of AGW in highly dev eloped urban areas. The second effect – just look at drought maps and soil moisture maps.
Boring.
Who cares about the symptoms.
What is the cure James?
It’s kinda like if you had inoperable terminal brain cancer… we’d eventually get tired of listening to you complain about the horrible headaches… our pity for you would soon wear thin if you kept bleating on about the headaches on OFW ….
What we’d say is – hey James — is there nothing that can be done to fix your problem? And you said … the doctors all say I’m dying.
We’d then say well James… nice knowing you but f789 off with the complaining about the headaches … if they are too much for you to deal with .. then here’s a noose… you are already dead so why suffer?
(as Fast Eddy heaves another plastic bag full of coal into the Rayburn)
Maybe James could cut down on his opulence as a starter package.
Tomorrow, James, you flip your car and then immediately proceed with eating mostly plant based and get rid of that albatross McMansion of yours and live small.
How about that for a start? Up for the bicycling loonie “oat Jesus” challenge?
No, of course you aren’t. What would “people” think of you. And that prestige of yours. Oh noes. *poof* gone. The missus as well – *poof* gone.
Nope, not even BAU-lite will satisfy the MOAR of James.
🤣👍
“I should have said the very first effects will be here in a few years.”
Don’t worry then. We all know that commercial nuclear fusion will be he in a few years.
Funny that. It’s always been a few years away since as far back as I can remember.
Memorandum to Nixon White House Counsel John Erlichman from Daniel P. Moynihan (at that time White House Urban Affairs Advisor) dated September 17, 1969 (just two months after “one small step for a man.”):
“Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has the effect of a pane of glass in a greenhouse. The C02 content is normally in a stable cycle, but recently man has begun to introduce instability through the burning of fossil fuels. At the turn of the century several persons raised the question whether this would change the temperature of the atmosphere. Over the years the hypothesis has been refined, and more evidence has corne along to support it. It is now pretty clearly agreed that the C02 content will rise 25% by 2000. This could increase the average temperature near the earth’s surface by 7 degrees Fahrenheit. This in turn could raise the level of the sea by 10 feet. Goodbye New York. Goodbye Washington, for that matter. We have no data on Seattle.”
https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/documents/jul10/56.pdf
Well, we’ve had our 25% CO2 content rise. Moynihan got that bit right. Tell me how much did the temp increase and how much did the sea level rise between 1969 and 2000?
:
:
:
Is that crickets I’m hearing, or is it cicadas?
I would call this a thre-decade experiment to test a hypothesis. And that particular hypothesis was clearly falsified.
https://gifimage.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/putin-laughing-gif-2.gif
Does this mean we won’t get any solutions … because there is nothing to solve?
Funny how these clowns are fixated on this issue.. when there are literally dozens of real issues that threaten our survival including lack of fresh water… overpopulation … and of course oil – which has peaked. Who gives a flying f789 about the kkkkklimate… this should be at the bottom of the list given we’re doing just fine as we descend into the CEP (it only has to last a few more months)… and there is nothing that can be done one way or the other.
But then that’s what the PR wants… fixation on the kkkklimate… and the solutions (EVs and solar)… Mission Accomplished.
I’ve spent a bit of time on this Ehrlich thing … apparently the daughter is turning tricks under the name Marie Bossette…. This all started when she thought the world was going to end … so instead of getting an education… she instead got into a hedonistic lifestyle… telling her father ‘why bother dad — I won’t see 35 … so why go to school or get married or have kids…
She was into the clubbing scene… got hooked on pills – coke – ketamine…. of course she had no money and nothing is free…. so she became what is known as a coke wh o re…. she’d latch on to guys who had gear… and trade her assets for lines…. she never took $$$ of course because that’s who r ing… below her
Then she got into meth and it was a downward spiral… by 25 she was looking burned out and the guys with the gear no longer felt the trade was fair… they were after fresh young things…
Faced with homelessness… and having to feed her meth habit … ‘Marie’ reinvented herself and moved to the Love Ranch….
As one might imagine… Paul doesn’t speak of his daughter…. he is hauling some heavy guilt around over this sordid situation ….
https://www.loveranch.net/marie-bossette/
Telling the very young they are doomed is poor psychology – unless one wishes them to plunge into despair and self-destruction.
I’m not bothering much about work at the moment, if something better and more fun turns up, or whatever counts as fun in middle age!
But OFW regulars will be relived to hear that I shall not be turning tricks.
Wow, sordid is the word. But I suppose things could have been worse and we must look on the bright side. With parental advice like that, she might have hooked up with Guy McPherson.
I suspect Guy is a regular client
BTW – Guy preaches .. but does he put forward solutions? Let me guess… he’s an EV Solar Panel guy? Bit of Permie Culture?
It’s not a fixation, it’s reality. The biggest problem will be the limited supply of fossil fuels. We all know that. Covid-19 may very well be a government conspiracy to slow-slow the economy, or the disease may be natural and real, but the governments are using it to slow the economy. Either way, Covid-19 and the plandemic are serving the useful purpose of allowing us to transition into a lower fossil-fuel-using world w/out a collapse. I’m all for it but recognize that there will be a crash sooner or later.
I take seriously Gail Tverbergs insights into the use of debt to help us all pretend the economy is vital and that there is enough oil (there isn’t) to keep things running smoothly.
In short, and I hope I didn’t just accidently insult you, Wile E. Coyote is in overshoot and off the cliff but the legs are still pumping so he hasn’t started to fall just yet. When he looks down, he will fall. When we all realize the energy economy just won’t cut it for 7-8 billion people and 350 peeps here where I live, then we all will fall. I plan to land away from the others.
Think about carbon dioxide and the greenhouse effect – that’s settled science. Carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is the primary determinant of average global temperature over the course of decades, centuries … and eons. It is sad that the fossil fuel industry that we all admire so much decided to make AGW a political issue, and it is sad that Greens make it a political issue in the way they have. It is also fortunate.
Fifty years ago we could have done something about the upcoming spike in temperature, and at the same time embarked on a less wasteful fossil fuel economy. Now, it is a personal matter; will a person decide to live where the temps are survivable or not?
It is true that freezing weather kills crops. I don’t think large cornfields in northern Alaska make much sense.
It is also true, but unrecognized, that dry soil makes it impossible to grow grains. For example, Libya.
Mitigation requires an economy. When incremental ocean rise decimates the economy of financial centers (Miami), it gets harder to buy grain to offset drought and water shortages. (Grain is easier to import than the water it would take to grow an equal amount.)
When I mention sea level rise (real, minute but real, increasing) and soil moisture declines (real, minute but real, and declining), I am mentioning some of the factors that will make adapting to a global debt bubble collapse even more difficult. Disease and government corruption are two more.
Some people, very few but some, will be able to anticipate trends in broad terms and prepare.
Fifty years ago we could have done something about the upcoming spike in temperature, and at the same time embarked on a less wasteful fossil fuel economy.
Specifics please.
I can tell you that which James cannot.
The specifics would be James cranking those pedals and shoving in the oats into that energy cooking belly of his.
But that isn’t what James wants. James only understands MOAR. That’s how James programming works. At least until James isn’t needed anymore. However, nobody forced James to compete with the joneses.
Soon James will come to realize what comes around goes around.
I think James should get that triplet of the ‘clot shot’. And soon isn’t urgent enough.
Go James, get those jabs. Be a responsible member of society. Protect the elderly and the NHS!
☺️👍
So many people have been declaring catastrophe is just around the corner. Even here, collapse is regularly posited. I was fooled by the peak oil crowd myself. On that last point, it turned out that fracking took off in a big way, and few people forecast that. Fracking alone, and even just US fracking alone, appears to have kept oil production just about rising (the last year excepted), even though conventional oil seems to have been on a long plateau or even slight decline, for the last 15 years. But, there are so many limits we’re banging up against. We’ve exceeded many critical boundaries (such as biosphere integrity, nitrogen cycle, phosphorous cycle and climate change) when exceeding only one could be catastrophic.
Ehrlich may have got the timing wrong but many others have also. Eventually, one of these predicaments will be impossible to patch over and the downward spiral will become obvious. To be honest, I’m not sure which boundary is going to bite us first and my thinking in that varies from time to time. Currently, climate change seems to be on the rise again, as the critical boundary (with incredible rain and heat events happening on almost a daily basis) but that may change in a few months. You could be right on resources (not one of the earth system boundaries but an economic one) and it wouldn’t surprise me. I can’t see humans voluntarily changing it characteristic species behaviour so I don’t think there is any way to avoid catastrophe. Maybe I’ll be dead before that happens in this neck of the woods but who knows? No-one.
We live in a self-organizing system. All of the different limits contribute to collapse. Perhaps lack of energy supply of the right type for existing devices is the biggest/first driver. We have already hit this. It doesn’t hit in the same high-priced way that people had expected. It hits through some kinds of travel being cut off: vacation travel overseas, in particular. The reason is ostensibly COVID, but it is just as much to save fuel. We are seeing increased number of “empty shelf” problems, as energy problems work through the system. The lack of semiconductor chips is one of them. Their lack is in turn cutting back on automobile production. Harry keeps posting articles about other goods becoming unavailable. I posted one yesterday about the variety of items available for school lunches being down this years.
Climate change is an easy “go to” problem that politicians can use to explain our problems, but it really is only a tiny piece of a big picture. The world economy is contracting in response to peak oil and peak coal. COVID is another go-to explanation for all of our problems.
Try to visualize it as two large guys (or groups) pulling on rope each from opposite directions. The past ~20+ yrs were the domain of the W-team, now the rope seems to be moving towards the other group’s court..
That’s how the remaining hydrocarbons will be likely distributed from now on with bias away from W consumerist societies..
Moreover, the issue being many in the W squandered the times of plenty, hence no fast rail, trams / light rail, bikes in the cities (suburbia), plywood or non isolated housing etc..
Perhaps, Ed, read this
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/04052021/a-new-book-feeds-climate-doubters-but-scientists-say-the-conclusions-are-misleading-and-out-of-date/
A New Book Feeds Climate Doubters, but Scientists Say the Conclusions are Misleading and Out of Date
The most recent scientific evidence, which will be covered in the IPCC update due out in August, has increased researchers’ confidence that human activity is the driving force in the current warming. Climate attribution studies in the last five years have shown that recent heat waves would have been all but impossible without the effect of greenhouse gas pollution. Other new research suggests that global warming has intensified extreme rainfall over parts of North America, and that overheated oceans are increasing the intensity of the tropical storms. Koonin’s book does not take these studies into account, and when he does cite recent studies, stresses their uncertainties rather than the findings, which affirm humanity’s role in the planet’s changes.
“The bottom line is that despite uncertainties in the magnitude and patterns of natural climate variability, human-caused climate change fingerprints have been identified in pretty much every aspect of climate change scientists have looked at,” said Benjamin Santer, an atmospheric scientist and leading climate modeler at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
Climate scientists also noted that Koonin, a theoretical physicist, was skeptical of consensus climate science long before the American Physical Society review.
“What he does is he just takes potshots,” said Don Wuebbles, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Illinois, who has helped lead the National Climate Assessment, which Koonin’s book criticizes roundly. “He pulls one figure out of context, and then makes a whole chapter on it.”
Interesting that we are getting all these floods. There are myths all around the world about a great flood that crashed civilisation. Look at the great pyramids. They couldn’t be built today and are machine-tooled.
You just can’t get the craftsmen these days. Although you could order a pyramid from Ali Baba or Amazon, it would probably be a concrete monstrosity and you’d want to send it back.
From the experience of learning an intricate craft from scratch, I’d say we do tend to underestimate the potential skills of earlier human beings using ‘simple’ tools quite significantly.
I can now measure by eye, and cut by hand, to the millimetre, which I certainly couldn’t do when I started. In fact I was very slow and clumsy.
Marvellous, Xabier! Build me a great pyramid in my garden, so that I can attract thousands of paying visitors. I’ll give you 2% of the profits. 😉
I could build you a miniature Great Pyramid, Malcopian: add a Celtic maze and you could advertise a ‘Garden of Mystic Meditation’……
Current thought seems to be that the flood stories have to do with flooding of the Black Sea. It is not clear exactly what happened. This is one view: https://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/noahs-not-so-big-flood/
I think that quite a bit of the flooding we are getting today have to do with our use of low lying lands for farming, and the use of dams to keep water where we think the water should be. There seem to be a lot of bad results with this approach.
It is indeed interesting how the ancient Egyptians could build the pyramids as precisely as they did. It looks as if they must have used something like our modern machinery, except that was not available.
https://www.lenntech.com/greenhouse-effect/global-warming-history.htm
EXTRACT:
“Svante Arrhenius (1859-1927) was a Swedish scientist that was the first to claim in 1896 that fossil fuel combustion may eventually result in enhanced global warming. He proposed a relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and temperature. He found that the average surface temperature of the earth is about 15oC because of the infrared absorption capacity of water vapor and carbon dioxide. This is called the natural greenhouse effect. Arrhenius suggested a doubling of the CO2 concentration would lead to a 5 °C temperature rise. He and Thomas Chamberlin calculated that human activities could warm the earth by adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. This research was a by-product of research of whether carbon dioxide would explain the causes of the great Ice Ages. This was not actually verified until 1987.”
The burning of fossil fuels causes entropy. Our use of FF expanded exponentially in the 20th century. Of course it must affect the climate, but to what extent exactly we cannot know. And of course the sun affects the climate, and more so. But perhaps the FF effect tips us into the unpleasant realms we have seen in recent years.
I cannot believe that any OFW’ers doubt that we’ve been causing increased entropy, and increasingly so since 1698 and the invention of the steam engine. We’ve been doing it increasingly because FF allowed us to support a massive ramp-up in our population into billions, which in itself has all the more effect on our environment and the atmosphere. The effects have been cumulative over more than two centuries.
I am aware that OFW’ers think outside the box, but denying entropy? No!
Energy consumption is what supports today’s population. We don’t have the option of “fixing” this problem without killing off most/all of our human population. The issue is a predicament, not a problem.
I totally agree, Gail. I was just stunned that some OFW’ers were denying the effects FF have in producing mass entropy and causing pollution and affecting the atmosphere.
When I read about all the measures to roll back the bad effects within a couple of decades, I am equally stunned by the naivety of the people who propose these things.
With all due respect to Arrhenius and to your good self, in my humble layman’s opinion, he was wrong about how much warming the earth would get out of increases in atmospheric COtwo. That gas is not the main control knob that a lot of people have been led to think it is.
Putting that to one side, entropy is apparently increasing relentlessly in the Universe. Any decline in entropy here on earth can be chalked up to all the energy arriving from the sun and being used by living organisms to sustain themselves individually and collectively.
Pollution? Does that include CO2? That’s a difficult sell. Pollution is the presence in or introduction into the environment of a substance which has harmful or poisonous effects. Notice, that’s a subjective definition to the extent that “harmful” is not defined so it can mean whatever somebody wants it to mean.
Exactly how is CO2 harmful or poisonous?
And what is the optimum temperature of the earth?
Green Groopies — are you going to take that insult!!!
Of course we can fix it without wiping ourselves out.
Herbie — rally the troops — let’s set Gail straight on this … there ARE solutions:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5……
“Iceland tightens virus restrictions again” – Four weeks after lifting all its coronavirus restrictions, Iceland is reversing course. Bars and clubs will have to close at midnight, a maximum of 200 people will be allowed at events and masks will be required indoors.
https://vnexplorer.net/iceland-tightens-virus-restrictions-again-er2021302842.html
See what happens when you Inject people!!!
“Double-jabbed British expats could see travel rules eased next month” – British expats who have received both doses of a coronavirus vaccine will be able to visit family in the U.K. without having to quarantine from next month, it was claimed today, says the Telegraph.
How bizarre… given…
People vaccinated before late February are twice as likely to catch the coronavirus than other inoculated Israelis, according to new research.
Unless of course…. the goal is to encourage the breeding of Devil Covid?
normduncmike… help me understand the logic of this …. this is so far below my Horse Power Grade that even to contemplate it gives me a headache… and I never get headaches… like never.
Oh, it gets even funnier:
The British expats have to register their “vaccination” status with their GP in the UK. However, after a certain amount of time living overseas, they are removed from their GP’s registry as registration is based on their UK residency status.
One woman’s story:
She hasn’t lived in the UK for over 30 years. She called her childhood GP in the UK and asked if she could register her “vaccination” status. The GP said that wouldn’t be possible.
There are now British expats writing on Facebook about getting additional shots in the UK, after having received their shots overseas. They see getting additional, NHS-administered shots as their ticket to living “freely” once they return to the UK.
So, they’ll 2 shots abroad and 2-3 in the UK?
It is hard to conceive of such idiocy – born of desperation I suppose.
Freedom was extinguished in March 2020.
New phrase… Variant Reactors…. or Variant Breeders….
That’s what the Injected are….
I prefer to think of them as ‘Variant Vermin’……
Xabier, I got a smile from that.
And I also smiled when I coined the expression, Ed!
If they are going to insult us, then……
That’s how we can refer to all the Children who have been Injected….
https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/04/16/18/40/mice-1333514_960_720.jpg
“Over 3,800 Germans got sick with COVID-19 following full vaccination, hundreds were hospitalised” – Germany has registered more than 3,800 symptomatic COVID-19 cases among people that were fully vaccinated against the disease since February, the nation’s disease control and prevention agency, the Robert Koch Institute, says.
https://www.rt.com/news/528729-germans-sick-covid-full-vaccination/
Wall of CovIDIOCY Update… the CovIDIOTS continue to stonewall me on this…
At least nobody is urging me to get the Injection now…..
https://media1.tenor.com/images/5e108294436bbc272e6e6654ff8f7e61/tenor.gif
People vaccinated before late February are twice as likely to catch the coronavirus than other inoculated Israelis, according to new research.
“We looked at tens of thousands of people tested in the month of June, alongside data on how long had passed since their second shot, and found that those vaccinated early were more likely to test positive,” Dr. Yotam Shenhar, who headed the research, told The Times of Israel.
The Irish Government has announced that it will change the way it collects data on Covid hospitalisations by distinguishing between those who are admitted to hospital because of the virus and those who test positive after being admitted for other reasons
https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0726/1237262-covid-ireland-latest/
Acknowledgement of the Lie.
normduncmike — what effect do you think this is going to have on the perception of efficacy of the vaccines in terms of hospitalizations and deaths?
Duh…..
At FDA Urging, Pfizer and Moderna to Include Thousands More Children in Clinical Trials
Citing concerns about the risk of heart inflammation associated with the vaccines, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration asked Pfizer and Moderna to expand the number of children in their clinical trials.
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/fda-pfizer-moderna-include-thousands-more-children-clinical-trials/
Hmmm…. I wonder if Fauci has any grand kids to enrol in these trials….
norm … we know you do … would you like me to find more info on how to enrol them?
Surely this is a crime?
Certainly a crime meriting the harshest punishment; doctors participating should never be allowed to practise again, at the very least.
To my mind,the only circumstances in which trials on children might be acceptable would be:
1/ When significant numbers were falling dangerously sick (they are not), and
2/ Only if the drugs had been proved to be safe for adults (again, they are not).
3/ If infections from children threatened the majority of healthy working-age adults with serious illness, not just the elderly – ie if they were a truly dangerous ‘pool of infection’. They are not.
How can anyone with a conscience participate in this? Fund it, authorise it?
As none of the above conditions has been met, these bastards should hang or rot away in jail, for life – masked.
The nurse in London was right, even if she was excitable or an attention junkie: her argument is sound: Nuremberg Trials 2.0!
Bennett says Israel is ‘very close’ to approving a COVID booster shot
Health Ministry data has shown that those who were first to receive the Pfizer COVID vaccine are more likely now to be infected, apparently due to diminishing effectiveness
“We’re on top of it, believe me,” said Bennett. “For at least a month [we’ve been working on] things that need to come to fruition. We’re very close. The less we talk about it, the greater chance it’ll happen. I’m on it.”
The prime minister did not specify which populations would receive the booster, but recent media reports have indicated government discussions have focused on administering it to the elderly.
Israel began administering a third booster shot two weeks ago to those with severely compromised immune systems, including transplant recipients and those with blood cancers — setting a world precedent.
Recent data released by the Health Ministry shows that those who were first to receive their two doses of the Pfizer COVID vaccine are more likely now to be infected, as the vaccines appears to lose protection potency over time.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/bennett-says-israel-is-very-close-to-approving-a-covid-booster-shot/
normmikedunc…. you dodged a bullet once https://www.openvaers.com/covid-data do you get the Booster?
Let me lend you a bit of my logic… if the first Injections wore off… what do you think is going to happen with the second one….
Perhaps a cameo in Deer Hunter 2?
https://youtu.be/BzW1RSoztp8
CDC Reverses Guidance, Will Mandate Wearing Of Masks Indoors:
“The New York Times has confirmed (with its sources) that the CDC is expected to recommend on Tuesday that people vaccinated for the coronavirus resume wearing masks indoors under certain circumstances, reversing a decision made just two months ago.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/cdc-plans-another-update-federal-mask-guidance
The “vaccines” work so well that the “vaccinated” should be wearing masks.
The masks work so well that you need to get “vaccinated” to be safe.
In San Francisco, many bars are preparing to only allow entry to “vaccinated” patrons.
“Unvaccinated” patrons may have the option of outdoor seating, depending on the location and whether it’s property has enough space for outdoor seating.
San Francisco bar entry example, including CDC’s latest guidance reversal:
Only “vaccinated” patrons may enter
“Vaccinated” patrons must wear a mask while indoors
“Unvaccinated” patrons may not enter
Questions:
If masks are effective, then why can’t the “unvaccinated” patrons enter the bar with masks on?
If masks and “vaccines” are effective, then why can’t the masked “vaccinated” patrons mingle in the bar with the masked “unvaccinated” patrons?
If the RT-PCR test is the “gold standard” for detecting the presence of SARS-CoV-2, then why aren’t bars offering to accept proof of a negative test result from the “unvaccinated?”
If the “vaccinated” are still at risk of “breakthrough” infections, then why are they allowed to enter the bar with only proof of “vaccination?”
If the RT-PCR test is the “gold standard” for detecting the presence of SARS-CoV-2, surely bars should be requiring proof of negative test results over proof of vaccination.
I expect that data from this CDC map will be used to determine who is expected to wear masks.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home
Hundreds Of San Francisco Bars To Require Proof Of Vaccination Or Negative COVID-19 Test
“A group representing nearly 500 bars in San Francisco has said that patrons who want to drink inside will have to show proof of vaccination or a negative COVID-19 test.
“The San Francisco Bar Owner Alliance told NBC News that its members will begin implementing the rule on July 29. The group polled its members prior to making the announcement and 85 percent said they support the move, the network reported.
“The group leaves the matter of enforcing the rule to individual owners.
“’We believe we are obligated to protect our workers and their families, and to offer safe space for customers to relax and socialize,’ the group said in a statement, according to NBC.
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/hundreds-san-francisco-bars-require-proof-vaccination-or-negative-covid-19-test
The catch, of course, is that proof of vaccination is a lot lower requirement than a negative covid-19 test. A lot of vaccinated people are likely to be spreading the variants. Of course, there are problems with the negative cover-19 test, too.
I am at the punchline part of this book (that was recommended here)…. and they are burning it down… everything… it’s amazing how effective a tool that can be…. when oppressed.
If you are already getting regularly beaten I am not sure why this is not something you’d do randomly on a regular basis… spark up the cane just as it’s ready for harvest… a match into the production facility…
Sure they could hang you … but if enough folks are playing ball… can’t hang everyone…
Humans are generally quite stooooopid beasts … they have easy ways out of stuff but they don’t think to use them
https://www.audible.com/pd/Island-on-Fire-Audiobook/1799923800?ref=a_library_t_c5_libItem_&pf_rd_p=80765e81-b10a-4f33-b1d3-ffb87793d047&pf_rd_r=B2ZM8D2ZT8GZ3870GCTS
Something to consider – niacin deficiency
https://clinmedjournals.org/articles/jide/journal-of-infectious-diseases-and-epidemiology-jide-7-195.pdf?jid=jide
This article is pretty much over my head. It does mention Vitamin B-3 supplementation possibly being helpful for some patients, at an early stage of COVID-19.
It also mentions that patients that start out in an inflammatory state tend to have worse outcomes than those who are undernourished. I would expect that countries with high BMIs would have worse outcome than those with low BMIs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_body_mass_index
A big part of the US’s poor results may be related to its average BMI of 28.5. In contrast, Japan’s average BMI is 22.6. China’s is 23.9, as is South Korea’s.
Wow. This is a difficult read, but fascinating. The abstract (let’s make each sentence a separate paragraph for ease of comprehension) states:
“SARS-CoV-2, a new virus, which has been causing the catastrophic pandemic in the world in 2020, triggers numerous physiologic changes in humans, with potentially fatal evolution due to COVID-19.”
There’s that word “catastrophic” again.
“COVID-19 can trigger immunoparalysis with deep and silent immunosuppression and a state of tolerance that may elicit opportunities for neoplastic transformation or latent infectious diseases.”
COVID-19 can paralyze or suppress the body’s immunity and that’s bad for us but party time for all the little bugs that want to feed on us.
“In addition, all neurologic or psychiatric symptoms have been observed – as clinically present in usual diseases, but behind these phenomena, there is often the chronic phase of COVID-19 as a background, mediated by intense platelet activation.”
Yes, we know that platelets are responsible for making the blood clot. And with COVID-19, (or with the vax) the blood clots like Devon Cream, thereby depleting the platelet level.
“Symptoms may vary greatly as they depend on subjacent comorbidities but reflect a unique wide-spectrum syndrome ranging between absent or mild autoimmune undetermined disease and two classical diseases: Eosinophilic Granulomatosis with Polyangiitis (EGPA) and Granulomatosis with Polyangiitis (GPA).”
Somebody get me a medical dictionary, pleeeze. But, I get it that symptoms are variable depending on what pre-existing diseases a patient has.
“Interestingly, deviations in tryptophan catabolism cause neutrophilia with variable eosinophilia and apparently, tryptophan metabolism is altered both due to inflammation and niacin depletion.”
Tryptophan is an amino acid needed for normal growth in infants and for the production and maintenance of the body’s proteins, muscles, enzymes, and neurotransmitters. It is an essential amino acid. This means your body cannot produce it, so you must get it from your diet. Among other things, it is a precursor to niacin, serotonin, melatonin and melanin, so your body is not going to run well without it.
“Lack of tryptophan causes sustained anaemia due to insufficient stimulation of the bone marrow. This article is based on articles reviewing, clinical observations, and high-intensity routine studies and in-hospital COVID-19 patients practice over 8 months. The main conclusion of this study is that the whole process starts among neutrophils and then is perpetuated by sustained platelet activation.”
Neutrophils are a type of white blood cell. In fact, most of the white blood cells that lead the immune system’s response are neutrophils. There are four other types of white blood cells. Neutrophils are the most plentiful type, making up 55 to 70 percent of your white blood cells.
There, I think the gist of the hypothesis they are putting forward is now, if not transparent, at least translucent!!
The Key Points at the end make it all much clearer. I think this info is extremely helpful.
Key Points
This article aims to expose:
– That COVID-19 is a chronic disease.
– The acute phase of the disease is viral and inflammatory, with the inflammatory component being responsible for severe acute respiratory failure.
– The chronic disease is due to changes in the metabolism of tryptophan and the lack of niacin (NAD/NADH+). Tryptophan has its metabolism altered by the lack of intestinal absorption due to internalization of ACE-2 and hypoxemia and inflammation, diverting its products to the formation of toxic Kynurenine metabolites.
– cHIS is pan-syndromic, the most evident being IL-6-mediated inflammatory syndrome, immunoparalysis syndrome, variable hypereosinophilic syndrome.
– The chronic phase (cHIS) can present multiple systemic changes such as muscle pain, skin lesions, changes in the central nervous system due to the presence of mastocytosis and eosinophilia, and the toxic component of tryptophan products.
– The formation of antibodies does not follow a pattern of formation since the disease is specific to each person and dependent on the immunosuppression that the virus determined for each individual.
– In the immunoparalysis phase, we can reactivate latent infectious diseases such as fungal and bacterial infections such as mycobacteriosis.
– The pneumonia pattern in the chronic phase is an inflammatory component and is a disease already described called acute fibrinous organization pneumonia (AFOP) secondary to IL-6 and sustained inflammation.
– COVID-19 is a viral disease and, like other viral infections, can also cause diseases of autoimmune origin. Perhaps its propensity for autoimmunity to occur is that the virus triggers autoantibodies’ formation while endothelial damage occurs.
– That COVID-19 causes a tolerance profile facilitating the appearance of autoimmune diseases and neoplasms.
– That the inflammatory component is dependent, among other factors, on the length of hypoxemia to which a person has been subjected in the acute phase of the disease with consequent consumption of NAD/ NADH+ and stimulation of neovasogenesis.
– That there is a concomitance of immunological forces of Treg and Th17 profile.
– Persistent anaemia is due to the continuous activation of neutrophils in the subacute and chronic phases and dependent on the serotonin/tryptophan pathways.
– That COVID-19 in the cHIS phase presents an oscillating (almost sinusoidal) pattern of laboratory behaviour indicating periods with an increase followed by a sudden decrease in cell types/proteins always marked by hypocalcaemia.
– That Ca2+ is necessary for activation of neutrophils, cellular apoptosis and many other cellular metabolic systems is very consumed.
– Bone metabolism is greatly affected by serotonin and mastocytosis, which is why fractures and osteoporosis may increase after COVID-19.
– That both the first and second phases respond to corticosteroids.
– That COVID-19 still has a lot to teach us.
Wouldn’t it be wonderful if the Devil Covid caused some horrible lesions in those who have been Injected… so they suffer before dying … while the Un-Injected experience a slight puff of infection and keel over to die in peace?
Let me add a scary photo
https://s3.ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/images.deccanchronicle.com/dc-Cover-sl7uchlt43ansbbokmj02q6hg2-20200131141633.Medi.jpeg
Check this sh it out!!!!
https://uniteddailynews.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/6064a5d52030275106237821.jpg
Ah, life used to be simpler. People with metal apartment doors were welded into the apartments and some then burned down. The NASA saw the sodium from the crematoriums of China running 24/7. Now it is tedious academic papers about the function of viruses.
Thanks for the work on that paper Tim. I hope to find some nexus points between that one and Anthony Mawson’s recent paper.
https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/vim.2020.0330?url_ver=Z39.88-2003&rfr_id=ori:rid:crossref.org&rfr_dat=cr_pub%20%200pubmed
“Here’s Why the New COVID Relief Program Will Turn The Working Class Into Serfs..,” by Chris Macintosh via InternationalMan.com:
“This virus is statistically as dangerous to the population as a bad flu. ‘No, not possible, Chris. Look at the response by governments. Surely that’s disproportionate.’ Yes, it is, but there is a reason.
“To understand the answer to this more fully we need to go back to 2008 and then walk forward tracking the unfolding events.
“Following the housing crash and subsequent banking crisis QE was brought in as the tool to ‘fix’ what could have and should have been fixed by letting the banks fail and putting on trial and jailing Wall Street bankers as well as regulatory agencies who were all willfully and knowingly involved in a massive fraud.
“The economy has been hanging by a thread ever since.
“Then in 2019 the money market seized up with the overnight lending rate shooting up, causing the pointy shoes at the Fed (and the ECB in coordination with the BOE, too) to step in to ‘fix’ it.
“They printed upwards of 100 million smackaroos PER NIGHT.
“Bankers should have been screaming… but they’re not. Why?
“Since the beginning of 2020 the major central banks around the world have expanded the money supply by anywhere from 30% to… how do I even say this without my throat catching? Better yet a visual to display the situation [graph provided at link below].
“The central banks would have struggled to do this without drawing attention to their scandalous behaviour if it weren’t for the scapegoat of COVID. ‘This is unprecedented,’ they tell us. ‘We have to do something,’ they say.
“To convince the public of the absolute necessity for the tyranny now imposed, they have used every lying trick in the book, and when found out and revealed quickly and mercilessly acted to ensure the truth is ‘canceled’.
“The coming problem is this. We have a truly monstrous increase in money supply, and if we open the global economy back up, we’re going to then get an increase in velocity. I.N.F.L.A.T.I.O.N.
“While the money conjured up and given to the banks in 2008 led to an explosion in ‘growth assets,’ the money now printed has been fed to the general populace (who then don’t default on their debts to the bankers).
“It solves two problems for the pointy shoes. Firstly, it ensures the bankers don’t go bankrupt. And secondly, it turns a working class into a slave class.
“You see, when you work for a living and vote for your government, they are reliant on you. But when you don’t work for a living and are reliant on your government then you are a slave to them. The roles are completely reversed.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/heres-why-new-covid-relief-program-will-turn-working-class-serfs
How’s that for an idea? Lockdowns as a method of preventing an increase in the velocity of money and subsequent inflation.
Good point. Governments need to keep demand down, if all of the debt that they keep adding are to keep inflation from going through the roof.
Sounds very plausible. When cooking the economic books, the idea is to keep the economic pot simmering gently but not boiling. Let it boil and you have a boom and possibly uncontrollable inflation followed by the mother of all busts, let it cool down and you have a slump and pesky deflation. All that free money has been created to stabilize asset prices and institutions, but it is imperative not to let it leak into the wider economy.
But then again, economics is like car mechanics to me. And I could never figure out how to change a spark plug, let alone fix a knocking engine.
‘This’ is the view of a ‘Thatcherite monetarist’.
“Last week the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that in the year to May the US consumer price index rose by 5.0%. This unexpectedly high figure means that the consensus of a year ago has been quite wrong. Nevertheless, a new consensus – similarly relaxed and complacent – has emerged, that the current inflation upturn is transitory, due to “base effects and bottlenecks”. According to this new consensus US consumer inflation will be back to 2% or so by late next year and in 2023.
In a note accompanying this e-mail, we challenge the complacency, particularly in the American context. The heart of our argument is that the velocity of circulation of money has been artificially depressed by the Covid-19 pandemic, but a vast amount of evidence shows that in the long run money-holding preferences are stable. We assume – in our main projection – that M3 velocity will return in the USA by end-2022 to a level about 5% lower than that which prevailed in 2018 and 2019; we also assume that money growth from here will run at an annualised rate of 5% (i.e., about 0.4% a month).
The result is that nominal GDP in the final quarter of next year is about 30% above its value in the first quarter of 2021. If nominal GDP has to rise by 30% in a little more than 18 months, what does that mean for real output and inflation? As we say in the note, “the annual rate of US consumer inflation between now and end-2022 will typically run in the 5% – 10% band”. We could not in logic reach any other answer.
Time will tell. The test of competing theories is reaching a very interesting phase.”
https://mailchi.mp/928db1c48509/which-economic-thoughtcomes-out-best-from-the-last-decade-1336363?e=260ed9002a
Tim and Eddie this is for YOU!
We are DOOMED
Small climate changes can have devastating local consequences – it happened in the Little Ice Age
Dagomar Degroot, Associate Professor of Environmental History, Georgetown University
https://www.yahoo.com/news/small-climate-changes-devastating-local-120445154.html?.tsrc=fp_deeplink
The Conversation
Small climate changes can have devastating local consequences – it happened in the Little Ice Age
Dagomar Degroot, Associate Professor of Environmental History, Georgetown University
Tue, July 27, 2021,.
Extremes like these are increasingly caused or worsened by human activities heating up Earth’s climate. For thousands of years, Earth’s climate has not changed anywhere near as quickly or profoundly as it’s changing today.
Yet on a smaller scale, humans have seen waves of extreme weather events coincide with temperature changes before. It happened during what’s known as the Little Ice Age, a period between the 14th and 19th centuries that was marked by large volcanic eruptions and bitter cold spells in parts of the world.
The global average temperature is believed to have cooled by less than a half-degree Celsius (less than 0.9 F) during even the chilliest decades of the Little Ice Age, but locally, extremes were common.
In diaries and letters from that period, people wrote about “years without a summer,” when wintry weather persisted long after spring. In one such summer, in 1816, cold that followed a massive volcanic eruption in Indonesia ruined crops across parts of Europe and North America. Less well known are the unusually cold European summers of 1587, 1628 and 1675, when unseasonal frost provoked fear
Extremes like these are increasingly caused or worsened by human activities heating up Earth’s climate. For thousands of years, Earth’s climate has not changed anywhere near as quickly or profoundly as it’s changing today.
Yet on a smaller scale, humans have seen waves of extreme weather events coincide with temperature changes before. It happened during what’s known as the Little Ice Age, a period between the 14th and 19th centuries that was marked by large volcanic eruptions and bitter cold spells in parts of the world.
The global average temperature is believed to have cooled by less than a half-degree Celsius (less than 0.9 F) during even the chilliest decades of the Little Ice Age, but locally, extremes were common.
In diaries and letters from that period, people wrote about “years without a summer,” when wintry weather persisted long after spring. In one such summer, in 1816, cold that followed a massive volcanic eruption in Indonesia ruined crops across parts of Europe and North America. Less well known are the unusually cold European summers of 1587, 1628 and 1675, when unseasonal frost provoked fear and, in some places, hunger.
“It is horribly cold,” author Marie de Rabutin-Chantal wrote from Paris during the last of these years; “the behavior of the sun and of the seasons has changed.”
Winters could be equally terrifying. People reported 17th-century blizzards as far south as Florida and the Chinese province of Fujian. Sea ice trapped ships, repeatedly enclosed the Chesapeake Bay and froze over rivers from the Bosporus to the Meuse. In early 1658, ice so completely covered the Baltic Sea that a Swedish army marched across the water separating Sweden and Denmark to besiege Copenhagen. Poems and songs suggest people simply froze to death while huddling in their homes.
These were cold snaps, not heat waves, but the overall story should seem familiar: A small global change in climate dramatically altered the likelihood of extreme local weather. Scholars who study the history of climate and society, like me, identify these changes in the past and find out how human populations responded.
Regardless….YOU ARE DOOMED…have a nice day my fellow doomers
Cold is, in many ways, much worse to live with than hot. Rivers and other waterways freeze up. Plants refuse to grow.
Hot weather can cause bolting in vegetable plants
One of the biggest nuisances in the summer vegetable garden is bolting – when crops put on a vertical growth spurt to flower and set seed before the vegetables are ready for harvest. The result is inedible, bitter-tasting leaves or poor-quality produce with little that can be salvaged.Jun 30, 2016
https://www.growveg.com › guides
Also in extreme hot weather food crops such as corn can not pollinate…
Surely if the kkkklimate was worming .. that would be a GOOD thing….
Repeat…Good Thing…Repeat, Good Thing…Repeat …Good Thing
OK, Ed, you convinced me🤪
I bought all the beach front land in Resolute Bay on Guy’s advice… it was supposed to be balmy by now…
Real Balmy in the Artic Area…
Bloomberg Green
Nordic Region, Arctic Circle Feel the Heat as Brutal Summer Hits
Towns in Sweden and Finland registered record-high temperatures as wildfires spread across eastern Russia
By Laura Millan Lombrana and Lars Paulsson
July 6, 2021
Record-high temperatures from Canada to Scandinavia and intense wildfires flaring up from California to Russia’s Far East are adding to extreme weather events recorded at the start of the summer in the Northern Hemisphere.
Temperatures in several towns in the north of the Nordic peninsula reached record highs over the weekend, according to local meteorological agencies. At the same time, unusual smoke and heat intensity from blazes in eastern Russia, the western U.S. and British Columbia are being monitored by Europe’s Copernicus agency.
So, glad you are finally seeing it as it is😜
So the little ice age was caused by burning fossil fuels? Or something else?
Cheers, Herbie. Nice article.
“Extremes like these are increasingly caused or worsened by human activities heating up Earth’s climate. For thousands of years, Earth’s climate has not changed anywhere near as quickly or profoundly as it’s changing today.”
This is the bone of contention. And I would, of course, take issue with these claims, particularly the latter one.
Putting all that to one side, however, as the author points out, modest natural climate change can have disastrous consequences including famine, starvation and literally washing people and civilizations away, and the last I heard modest natural climate change has not been put on hold.
So either we build greater resilience to disaster or we will get clobbered just like the first two little piggies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKxWJP_LH7A
Artleads, which of these three porcine building techniques do you favor?
I’ll bet most people don’t think of The Three Little Pigs as an environmental disaster preparedness fable. But that’s what it is, with the wolf symbolizing the natural elements.
This is what Guy has been saying for many years. I believe it is correct. Thank you for the link. I live in Vancouver and we are experiencing severe heat which is not normal. It reaches 80 degrees F by 10am and then over 90 in the afternoon – and it doesn’t cool down much during the night, The weather channel says 75 but my meter on my covered deck says 93.
Without air conditioning there would be a lot of dead people,
For those who have been vaxxed is there a treatment to reduce or eliminate the clotting?
aspirin.
take low-dosage, 80-mg tablets once per day. only known downside (to me) is you become a bleeder. need to pack bandages, be careful with the razor.
How about a handful of Fentanyl? It will also cure your MOREONIsm… (only a True Moreon gets Injected with a ‘vaccine’ that has ZERO long term safety studies… no?)
People vaccinated before late February are twice as likely to catch the coronavirus than other inoculated Israelis, according to new research.
hahahahaha…. True Total Absolute… MOREons!!!
All Hail the MOREONS… Idiocracy Cometh!!!
When I retire to Bedlam, I’ll see you there!
http://www.milwaukeeindependent.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/spockcaricature.jpg
Unfortunately … there is no cure for CovIDIOCY…. sorry fellas! (normduncmike)
What happens when the free movement of the goods and people is hindered:
https://youtu.be/rmna-YQoB34
https://youtu.be/ZL48D0wjavs
I think the problem is more “not enough energy to go around.” Someone gets left out.
I agree. Freedom is possible thanks to the bountiful energy. The lack of energy constitutes the obstacle for the free movement.
Many UK people tought that EU is responsible for their problems. The real problem was and is the energy decline.
Back in the day remember the mind shifting Jeremy Rifkins title “Entropy:A New World View” that came out in the early 1980s. Well 40 years later and BAU is still clinging on judging from the new Aircraft carrier group Gerald Ford replacing the Nimitz class warships
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CqxjzfudGAc
Rifkin, if I remember, wrote in the book one of the first things to go were Airlines and Aircraft Carriers, floating cities…he also stated they were one of the highest order of waste if armed with nuclear missiles
Thanks for that I’ve noticed some newer titles written by him over the recent decades. It’s interesting how so many diverse authors eventually picked up correctly certain partial trends, vibes and predictions.. to our general surplus/ofw type of predicament.
Dr. Eric W Davis thoughts on the immune system.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E7KLbp8WEAcUWY7?format=jpg&name=medium
“UK supermarket shelves could soon be bare, with panic buying leading to the worst food shortages in more than 75 years, unless critical issues currently threatening UK food supplies are solved promptly, the founder of one of Britain’s biggest food processors has claimed.”
https://www.scotsman.com/country-and-farming/labour-shortages-could-spark-a-major-food-crisis-3324227
“UK music festivals at risk of cancellation due to ‘pingdemic’ staff shortages.
“Covid contact tracing app is forcing many workers into self isolation, as sector asks for government help.”
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2021/jul/25/uk-music-festivals-at-risk-of-cancellation-due-to-pingdemic-staff-shortages
“Senior figures in the UK construction industry fear a shortage of raw materials will drag on into next year.
“Builders are struggling to secure sufficient quantities of bricks, cement, timber, and other crucial supplies.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/07/25/builders-fear-cement-shortage-will-persist-2022/
We can print money but not resources.
The WSJ had an article recently, Supply-Chain Woes Come to School Cafeterias
Ahead of fall reopening, school districts are shrinking menu options as they face shortages of juice boxes, chicken tenders
Thanks, Gail. I thought this article from May was interesting. Wonder if it will be proven correct:
“Beware the ketchup-bottle economy… if the economy’s supply side suffers from bottlenecks, an apposite analogy is the glass ketchup bottle. You can shake and tap all you want, with no result — until suddenly it all comes flooding out and your food is smothered in ketchup.
“The same will happen in supply chains that are currently blocked… History indicates that supply responses overcompensate, ketchup bottle-like. Today’s shortfalls will produce tomorrow’s gluts, so the prices rising fastest today will face the strongest disinflationary pressures next year…
“If… consumers and businesses remain cautious and savings rates stay elevated as government stimulus is phased out, demand will falter just as supply capacity picks up. The result will be disinflation and protracted underemployment — politically toxic after the shock of the lockdowns.”
A link for that:
https://www.ft.com/content/8daa2740-30de-4817-a687-c69b345095cd
Good point!
there are certainly long spaces appearing on the shelves of a couple of supermarkets I use
nobody panic buying yet–but I guess its only a matter of time
The TPI (toilet paper index) at my local Publix is running at 50% – 60%. It’s not been over 80% since the TPC (toilet paper catastrophe) of 2020.
Another index I haven’t found a link for is the number of weighings per day at interstate DOT weigh stations.
We are drowning in toilet paper but that’s because we have it on Amazon “subscribe and save” and not because we’ve been hoovering it up in a state of panic. 😆
I am please to learn that you will not be experiencing TPP (toilet paper panic), but I was suggesting that one can measure the state of affairs by how full or empty the rolled tissue aisle is.
The TPI is useful but not vital.
In days of old
When knights were bold
And lavatories were’t invented
They wiped their arse
Upon the grass
And walked away contented
For the real fun, we’ll have to wait until the tobacco, alcohol, coffee, tea, flour, sugar and eggs start disappearing.
I can see why governments would want to hide our current problems. If everyone stocks up, we will be in worse shape than otherwise.
“American Airlines warns about jet-fuel shortages around the U.S., asks pilots to conserve…
“The carrier said airlines, including American, have experienced the delays due to a lack of truck drivers, trucks and fuel supply.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/26/american-airlines-warns-about-fuel-shortages-around-the-country-ask-pilots-to-conserve.html
Lack of availability of fuel supply will create crises of its own, if something cannot be done to damp down demand.
“Global shipping industry disrupted again, this time by floods in Europe and China.
“The floods in China and Europe are yet “another body blow” for global supply chains, the CEO of a shipping firm told CNBC on Monday. “Rarely does a week go past without something new,” says Tim Huxley, CEO of Mandarin Shipping.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/27/floods-in-europe-and-china-disrupt-global-shipping-supply-chains.html
If we are depending on a just-in-time supply chain, without much margin for error, and it is already under stress from inadequate energy supplies, any weather-related issue will suddenly become a big problem.
Not the booze! 😆 “Supply chain issues have impacted deliveries of consumer goods all over the world, but now, it’s coming for the liquor sector.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/elvaramirez/2021/07/26/is-there-a-liquor-shortage-looming-in-your-state/?sh=760b0d4a095b
I know that restaurants had a lot of problems after they reopened with beer on tap having lost its fizz. They would have beers on the menu that they couldn’t sell to customers.
I suppose we could get a new version of this problem. Ohio, Vermont, and North Carolina seem to be problem areas.
Black women who use lye-based hair relaxers at least seven times a year for 15 or more years have a 30% increased risk of breast cancer
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/27/black-women-hair-products-health-hazards-study
The wages of cultural appropriation?
This is an article from 2008:
Pretty Ugly: Cosmetics Ingredients Linked to Breast Cancer?
https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/health/pretty_ugly__cosmetics_ingredients_linked_to_breast_cancer_/2091138/
I did send you a link to Roget’s Thesaurus
A pro-vaxx study by Yale conducted in July 2020 employed trolls — 4000 participants who set out to pressure others into getting vaccinated. They used manipulative messaging such as guilt, embarrassment, and trust science.
How many organizations might be employing pro-vaxx trolls?
+ + + +
This study tests different messages about vaccinating against COVID-19 once the vaccine becomes available. Participants are randomized to 1 of 12 arms, with one control arm and one baseline arm. We will compare the reported willingness to get a COVID-19 vaccine at 3 and 6 months of it becoming available between the 10 intervention arms to the 2 control arms.
Other: Baseline message
3/15 of the sample will be assigned to a control group with a message about the effectiveness and safety of vaccines.
Other: Personal freedom message
1/15 of the sample will be assigned to this intervention, which is a message about how COVID-19 is limiting people’s personal freedom and by working together to get enough people vaccinated society can preserve its personal freedom.
Other: Economic freedom message
1/15 of the sample will be assigned to this intervention, which is a message about how COVID-19 is limiting peoples’s economic freedom and by working together to get enough people vaccinated society can preserve its economic freedom.
Other: Self-interest message
1/15 of the sample will be assigned to this intervention, which is a message that COVID-19 presents a real danger to one’s health, even if one is young and healthy. Getting vaccinated against COVID-19 is the best way to prevent oneself from getting sick.
Other: Community interest message
1/15 of the sample will be assigned to this intervention, which is a message about the dangers of COVID-19 to the health of loved ones. The more people who get vaccinated against COVID-19, the lower the risk that one’s loved ones will get sick. Society must work together and all get vaccinated.
Other: Economic benefit message
1/15 of the sample will be assigned to this group, which is a message about how COVID-19 is wreaking havoc on the economy and the only way to strengthen the economy is to work together to get enough people vaccinated.
Other: Guilt message
1/15 of the sample will be assigned to this message. The message is about the danger that COVID-19 presents to the health of one’s family and community. The best way to protect them is by getting vaccinated and society must work together to get enough people vaccinated. Then it asks the participant to imagine the guilt they will feel if they don’t get vaccinated and spread the disease.
Other: Embarrassment message
1/15 of the sample will be assigned to this message. The message is about the danger that COVID-19 presents to the health of one’s family and community. The best way to protect them is by getting vaccinated and by working together to make sure that enough people get vaccinated. Then it asks the participant to imagine the embarrassment they will feel if they don’t get vaccinated and spread the disease.
Other: Danger message
1/15 of the sample will be assigned to this message. The message is about the danger that COVID-19 presents to the health of one’s family and community. The best way to protect them is by getting vaccinated and by working together to make sure that enough people get vaccinated. Then it asks the participant to imagine the anger they will feel if they don’t get vaccinated and spread the disease.
Other: Trust in science message
1/15 of the sample will be assigned to this message about how getting vaccinated against COVID-19 is the most effective way of protecting one’s community. Vaccination is backed by science. If one doesn’t get vaccinated that means that one doesn’t understand how infections are spread or who ignores science.
Other: Not bravery message
1/15 of the sample will be assigned to this message which describes how firefighters, doctors, and front line medical workers are brave. Those who choose not to get vaccinated against COVID-19 are not brave.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04460703
This material was from a clinical trial at Yale University, completed July 8, 2020. No results of this study seem to have been published.
Someone has got hold of a Pfizer manufacturing and supply contract.
Nations have about as many rights as slaves.
https://twitter.com/eh_den/status/1419653002818990085?s=20
There’s also the Brazilian contract further down the thread.
According to the thread:
I’m so disappointed in Yale. When I get their publications now, I automatically delete them. Saves time anyhow.
Those who choose not to get vaccinated against COVID-19 are not brave.
Fast Eddy is proud to be a coward! Of course only a True Moreon would be swayed by any of these arguments…. ‘hey everyone else is doing it… I think I’ll do it too!!!’
Interesting article from Mike Adams at naturalnews.com https://www.naturalnews.com/2021-07-26-got-played-124-million-democrats-have-taken-trump-vaccines-what-happens-if-they-start-dying.html
Historically Trump was close to the Messiah in his eyes. Now he’s saying Trump was behind the big push to get experimental vaccines out. Big about face.
Was Trump just another useful idiot there to do a job? Could never understand the right wing media portraying him as a saviour.
And STILL there are those who reject that the Elders exist… and run a global empire
From the article.
Education minister Vicky Ford did not rule out the move, however, saying “I think it’s really important that young people step forward for their vaccination.”
So the young, who are at absolutely no risk, should be injected with an experimental therapy that we have no long term data about, even though it’s proven that the experimental therapy does not stop you getting or transmitting anything.
We do know the experimental therapy is causing multiple ‘very rare’ problems for the young in places that have failed in their duty of care for their children.
With that in mind it’s heartwarming to see the unions making a stand.
https://neu.org.uk/press-releases/flu-vaccines
Oh, they are going after the kids and education unions are on board with the insanity.
It’s quite amazing what people are willing to do, even to children, when they are constantly bombarded with fear.
Dr Josef would be proud of all that do this to children.
That’s a reply to FEs 4:27 comment.
Oh don’t worry … I generally ignore your comments.
By way of comparison, even the Nazis had to do this sort of thing on the quiet; and the Soviets arrested people and spirited them away to be murdered.
We, on the other hand, see the lines of people awaiting the poisons in broad daylight, and no shame at all in those promoting this state and corporate crime against basic human rights.
If they begin like this, what might they do next?
The United States will not lift any existing travel restrictions “at this point” due to concerns over the highly transmissible Covid-19 Delta variant and the rising number of US coronavirus cases, the White House confirmed on Monday.
The announcement almost certainly dooms any bid by US airlines and the US tourism industry to salvage summer travel by Europeans and others covered by the restrictions. Airlines have heavily lobbied the White House for months to lift the restrictions and some say the industry may now have to wait until September or later for a possible revision.
The United States currently bars most non-US citizens who within the last 14 days have been in the United Kingdom, the 26 Schengen nations in Europe without internal border controls, or in Ireland, China, India, South Africa, Iran and Brazil.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/26/us-travel-restrictions-covid-delta-variant-white-house
So I guess the Injections don’t work right… otherwise they’d let Injected people in … right?
mikenormdunc…. or is it mike norm-dunc… or dunc mike-norm… perhaps norm dunc-mike… that question is for you
I’ll have a stab at answering for them:
‘It’s not that the vaccines don’t work and kill people, it’s because of Devil Delta! Please give me my booster now! The holy saviour booster Big Pharma made just for me!’
So, the travel restrictions aren’t going away.
There is a shortage of jet fuel. Perhaps that is entering into the decision as well.
Bubble with Australia cancelled just as the winter high season kicks off … Aussies come here to ski … NZers go to warmer parts of Australia for sun…. how much oil does this save?
https://summit.news/2021/07/26/unvaccinated-students-will-not-be-able-to-attend-lectures-under-government-plans/
Should this not be the other way around??????
Haha! I was thinking the same thing!
If there is not enough to go around (seats in schools, seats at restaurants, toilet paper in the grocery store, etc.), vaccination status is a way of cutting out some people, without relying on skin color or wage level.
Rationing.
Interestingly, though, by that logic the people running the scamdemic wouldn’t genuinely want EVERYONE to get injected and thus gain access to resources. Instead, they’d genuinely want a substantial portion of the population to remain “unvaccinated” and thus excluded.
Hmm, I wonder if they’d openly tell us if this was the case.
Of course, if the vaccine is indeed a death sentence then that would explain a genuine desire for EVERYONE (except the scammers and their kin) to be injected.
What a tricky game we’re all being forced to play!
UK Covid cases have halved in the last 10 days even as lockdown ends. Something very interesting is going on here, either the data is being falsified or the vaccine programme is actually working.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
https://off-guardian.org/2021/05/18/how-the-cdc-is-manipulating-data-to-prop-up-vaccine-effectiveness/
I completely agree with you Fast Eddy.
Furthermore there maybe 2 additional points.
1) this maybe linked to the fact that from the 31st of Dec. 2021 PCR tests will not be any more valid. So they probably know already something about and they are probably adjusting data considering mistakes.
2) Coronavirus are less aggressive during summer and in fact in Italy we have a similar situation in comparison to last summer which was without vaccines.
No mistake.. they wanted loads of infections so they could scare the CovIDIOTS… and now they want less to make the CovIDIOTs believe the vaccines are effective
Or… it’s a seasonal virus… like all other coronaviruses?
I do wonder what our ancestors think of us at this point in time…
They’d probably be wondering why we haven’t burnt the witches and sorcerers who are responsible……
Excellent point, Xabier!
I restored a 17th century medical manual: it had a chapter on ‘How to tell if your patient is sick because of witchcraft’……..
I hope you made a copy. It might prove useful in future!
Schools etc have broken up and so testing at schools has ceased and many people have deleted apps that call for them to be tested or are avoiding being tested. They do not want to be entered into quarantine for 10 days when they are about to depart on their holidays. Many like the tests normally, particularly if they are Civil Servants of which there are millions, because they are able to stay at home for 10 days on full pay. In the UK we have a ‘testing’ pandemic not a viral one and the tests as we know are not accurate with many false positives, we test more people than any other country from the last data I saw. My sister and brother in law both came down with similiar ‘flu’ like symtoms. B-I-L tested positive, sister tested negative (same thing happened to my brother and he had classic symptoms loss of taste etc so was advised to get tested again) she thought this was odd and had a 2nd PCR test and tested positive, both were double jabbed against my advise and many emails. You can take a horse to water but you can’t make it drink, they watch TV I don’t, I absolutely loath the BBC. Numbers are dropping I strongly suspect because fewer people are being tested. Most people/clients I know who are now testing positive have been jabbed. This could be due to a weakened immune system making them susceptable or general ineffectiveness of the jabs. To insist that the unjabbed in the UK are excluded is farcical, as it is the jabbed who are spreading the virus in my experience.
Dial back the cycles on the flawed PCR …and it looks like the vaccines are working …
A last word of caution to all those pretending the Covid-19 pandemic is toning down
Synopsis
The current expansion in prevalence of infectious Sars-CoV-2 variants is highly problematic because it erodes natural Ab-based, variant-nonspecific immunity in the non-vaccinated part of the population. The high infectivity rate that results from this expansion not only further enhances the expansion of these variants but may also drive natural selection of viral variants that are featured by an even higher level of infectiousness.
Erosion, therefore, of natural Ab-based, variant-nonspecific immunity promotes breeding and transmission of more infectious viral variants in the non-vaccinated part of the population. On the other hand, mass vaccination promotes natural selection of increasingly vaccine immunity (VI)-escaping variants in the vaccinated part of the population. Taken together, mass vaccination conducted on a background of high infectivity rates enables more infectious, increasingly VI-escaping variants to expand in prevalence.
This evolution inevitably results in inclining morbidity rates in both, the non-vaccinated and vaccinated population and precipitates the emergence of circulating viral variants that will eventually fully resist vaccine-mediated immunity (VMI). This is why mass vaccination campaigns should not be conducted during a pandemic of a highly mutable virus, let alone during a pandemic of more infectious variants (unless transmission-blocking vaccines are used!).
It is critical to understand that a rapid decline in viral infectivity rates that is not achieved by natural infection but merely results from expedited mass vaccination campaigns will only delay abrupt propagation of emerging, fully vaccine-resistant viral variants and hence, only delay the occurrence of a high wave of morbidity and mortality.
In contrast, mass vaccination campaigns that are progressing more slowly, especially when conducted on a background of relatively low infectious pressure, will result in a steadily growing propagation of increasingly VI-escaping variants and hence, cause a wave of morbidity and mortality that continues to grow bigger and larger as more and more people become vaccinated. It’s only when fully vaccine-resistant viral variants will become dominant that this wave will start to peak.
https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/post/a-last-word-of-caution-to-all-those-pretending-the-covid-19-pandemic-is-toning-down
This: In other words, high viral infection rates drive natural selection and self-amplifying expansion of more and more infectious Sars-CoV-2 variants in the non-vaccinated part of the population while high vaccine coverage rates drives natural selection of increasingly VI-escaping Sars-CoV-2 variants. This evolution is now driving enhanced rates of disease in both populations. Consequently, mass vaccination during a pandemic of more infectious variants self-amplifies natural selection and expansion of more infectious, increasingly VI-escaping Sars-CoV-variants. Both, the vaccinated and non-vaccinated part of the population fully contribute to this evolution.
Because of all of the above, I can certainly not endorse the opinion of those who think that the decrease in disease severity and hospitalizations that is now observed in several countries where mass vaccination is well advanced would be due to some kind of ‘attenuation’ of viral variants or to some kind of growing HI. One rather concludes that this pandemic is far from over or from transitioning into endemicity. There can be no doubt that, at this stage, the pandemic is gearing up for breeding vaccine-resistant ‘supervariants’, a phenomenon that is at risk of fueling an even larger wave of morbidity, hospitalization and, unfortunately, also death, not at least in the vaccinated part of the population.
We’re all doomed!
We were doomed from the moment we first popped out and………screamed!
Such good sense and clear vision at such a young age: when do people lose it exactly?
As he predicted… the virus has rallied the troops and is not only immune to Covid but those who have been Injected eventually become MORE susceptible to Covid…
He is predicting that the virus will continue to evolve and that it will cause mass hospitilizations and death…. and now that is starting to happen amongst the Injected.
This is impacting the early Injectors… those who Injected in pre Feb…. looks to be a 6 month lag…
When did you guys get Injected normdunc?
I am thinking Q3 and 4 will be interesting…
Justin let the cat out of the bag … https://www.bitchute.com/video/uLStFKAw8Okm/
Dammit, our deadly pandemic did kill only 0.05% of the population, despite all our diagnostic and statistical scams. The part of the population that trusts our mass propaganda channels is under control, but those alt guys are getting restless. Quick, summon some of our people, let’s say someone who worked for the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, GAVI, GlaxoSmithKline, and Novartis to scare the bejesus out of them. You know, feed them some wild claims backed by a lot of handwaving (you could even pretend that T-cell immunity doesn’t exist), and sprinkle them with some conspiracy stuff, they love that and will swallow it hook, line, and sinker. Oh, and of course don’t forget to promote mass vaccination with some alternative experimental goo (it doesn’t even need to exist).
P.S.: Tick-tock, still waiting for the promised “uncontrollable monster”.
The prose is dense and cluttered, but more I read Bossche, the more sense he seems to make.
He doesn’t write in layman’s terms… that’s for certain!
Record Coral Cover Of Great Barrier Reef Shames Climate Alarmists, Media
https://climatechangedispatch.com/record-coral-cover-of-great-barrier-reef-shames-climate-alarmists-media/
hahahahaha… weren’t we supposed to be able to sail through the Artic in winter by now?
Web cam https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/arctic-zone/gallery_np.html
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Blue Arctic strategy: US Navy prepares for an ice-free north
New report calls for great power competition with China and Russia
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Blue-Arctic-strategy-US-Navy-prepares-for-an-ice-free-north
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Blue Arctic strategy: US Navy prepares for an ice-free north
New report calls for great power competition with China and Russia
A U.S. aviation support equipment technician observes flight operations on the flight deck of San Antonio class amphibious transport dock ship USS Somerset during an Arctic expeditionary capabilities exercise in the Pacific Ocean. (Photo courtesy of the U.S. Navy)
KEN MORIYASU, Nikkei Asia chief desk editor
January 7, 2021 07:40 JST
NEW YORK — The Arctic is gradually turning from “white” to “blue,” with melting ice making the waters more accessible and navigable, and requires an updated strategy that fits the new reality. So said the U.S. Navy this week in a strategic blueprint for the region titled “a Blue Arctic.”
“Despite containing the world’s smallest ocean, the Arctic region has the potential to connect nearly 75% of the world’s population — as melting sea ice increases access to shorter maritime trade routes linking Asia, Europe and North America,” it said.
But while alluding to the opportunities the rapidly melting sea ice provides, it also warned that in the decades ahead, the increasingly navigable Arctic waters “will create new challenges,” especially from Russia and China, “whose interests and values differ dramatically from ours.”
The strategy called for a sustained American naval presence in the region to defend the country’s interests.
“As our naval force continues to meet the challenging demands of a Blue Arctic in this era of great power competition, the Department of the Navy remains committed to protecting the Arctic environment and ensuring naval forces do their part to help preserve it,” Secretary of the Navy Kenneth Braithwaite said in a news release. “This blueprint guides how the department will continue to provide the right levels and types of presence on, under, and above Arctic water, ensuring America is prepared to compete effectively and efficiently to maintain favorable balances of power.”
The U.S. has always had a presence “under” and “above” the water, through submarines and aircraft. The secretary’s reference to a presence “on” the water points to more surface ships in the region.
“No longer limited to air, undersea, and strategic strike capabilities, rapidly melting sea ice increases Arctic access for surface vessels — both manned and unmanned,” the document said.
Fast Eddy…good thing it’s a bit behind schedule….gives the US Navy brass more time to prepare according to their own documents!
As for your coral reef link “Climate Dispatch”
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/climate-change-dispatch/
You can read it for yourself
Any way to increase energy demand. Fossil fuel prices are basically too low for producers.
Now why build more ice breakers? When there is no ice?
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/07/15/russia-races-to-build-giant-ice-breakers-for-arctic-dominance-a74531
Mister Obvious, here Eddie, there is still a WINTER season in the Artic with ice build up…hence the need for ice breakers😜
Let me know when the Suez becomes obsolete….
And when Leo’s multi million dollar sea level is underwater
It will all happen at the same time 🙂 (never)
Can you also ping me when you get cured
Stop being so 😜 silly
Hmmm… do you think that lady who bought our coast property will come back to me demanding her money back when the waves come through the front door next year?
https://i.imgur.com/aiDPWMx.jpg
Government push to force young people to get jabs risks undermining trust in the vaccine, expert warns – as video of woman ‘struggling to walk’ after getting Pfizer is liked 100,000 times on Instagram
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9825783/Warning-government-vaccine-push-video-fuels-anti-vaxxer-sentiment.html
Love the part about: “It’s not yet clear why it affects some people.”. Ummm because it’s been rushed to market and poorly tested. And when there are severe reactions or injuries it’s dismissed as an odd occurrence. In that article it was mentioned that with Rose Segal’s injuries “It follows the vaccine, but is not ’caused’ in a sense.“ You gotta love the spin.
But hey i’m living proof those vaccines are totally safe. I’m getting my weekly Jab and i’m now on a first name basis at the vaccine clinic.
I am thinking…
… of norm dunc mike … beginning to realize… that they’ve been stitched up with the ‘vaccines’…
They can never admit it … but deep down guys…. you surely are reading that Israel story … and feeling profound despair….
I think We Told You Not to Get Injected… maybe 1000 or so times? Ignore the Core — at your peril….
You know… I think I’ll have a nice glass of https://img.thewhiskyexchange.com/900/japan_tak5.jpg
Highly recommend this…. norm… perhaps an entire bottle for you? Make sure you put on your diapers first… chase it with some Geritol?
Is it not a great day? Hit the ski hills for a dozen or so good runs…. decent snow… sunny…. then came back to see another Outstanding Find from The Almighty Tim…. and thinking … what a great decision it was to no be Injected with the Poison …..
Feels like… Victory!
“It’s not yet clear why it affects some people.”
I’m beginning to think they don’t care if it affects some people. At $19.50 a dose and the price will go higher that’s billions in profit because Big Pharma and the US Gov’t can’t be sued.
“SHOW ME THE MONEY !!!!”
– Jerry Mcguire
Time to roll up your sleeve for your booster, Norman?
From the Times of Israel:
People vaccinated before late February are twice as likely to catch the coronavirus than other inoculated Israelis, according to new research.
“We looked at tens of thousands of people tested in the month of June, alongside data on how long had passed since their second shot, and found that those vaccinated early were more likely to test positive,” Dr. Yotam Shenhar, who headed the research, told The Times of Israel.
“This definitely reinforces the argument for giving a third vaccine dose to the elderly.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/hmo-those-who-inoculated-early-twice-as-likely-to-catch-covid-as-later-adopters/
Robert Malone, the inventor of mRNA vaccine technology, observes:
“So, this pretty much nails it down. The durability of the Pfizer vaccine is not very long.”
This also underlines Gail’s point that, even if they work well, the world simply doesn’t have the resources to keep vaccinating the entire population every six months.
norm… hide the grandkids … from you hahaha
https://media.tenor.com/images/a0d9230860bf291e8c97cff520fe9f90/tenor.gif
Note that in the linked story:
That’s next.. according to Bossche …
Reports of COVID breakthrough cases continue to rise — as of July 12, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported 5,492 breakthrough cases resulting in death and hospitalization.
A breakthrough case refers to anyone who is diagnosed with COVID after being fully vaccinated. A person is considered fully vaccinated two weeks after receiving the second dose of either the Pfizer or Moderna COVID vaccine, or two weeks after receiving the single-dose Johnson & Johnson (J&J) vaccine.
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/foo-fighters-vaccinated-only-concert-canceled-covid-breakthrough-cases/
That’s poor reporting. I noticed that you pulled out a line that might suggest 5,492 breakthrough cases died. It should read “5,493 breakthrough cases resulting in hospitalization or death.” In fact, there were 1,141 deaths though the link CDC page notes “292 (26%) of 1,141 fatal cases reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19” so the fatalities may be 849, out of more than 161 million full vaccinations. The comparison with a normal death rate has already been discussed.
Later in the article, referring to Massachusetts only, it says, “About 92% of those cases did not result in hospitalization, while 303 people, or 6.8%, were hospitalized, according to Massachusetts Department of Public Health (DPH) data through July 10.”
The full picture is usually a bit less dramatic than the headline.
Hold tight mike… it’s just getting started…
‘Reports of COVID breakthrough cases continue to rise’
At the moment it is effective in preventing hospitalisation and severe cases but what if that changes like the transmission as time goes on. Time will reveal.
“Those vaccinated early were more likely to test positive.”
The key words here are “test positive”. Daily covid deaths in Israel are practically at zero.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_deaths_per_million&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=~ISR
At least that is good news for now.
I think that for most people, the Delta variety of COVID is pretty much like a cold. I found this information in a link posted earlier.
https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-what-do-we-know-about-the-coronavirus-delta-variant/a-57949754
What are the symptoms of the delta variant?
Is it really worthwhile to try to test everyone with something like a cold? This is a very transmissible illness. We will run out of reagents. We will have many workers on this project, with little benefit, except perhaps slightly prolonging the lives of a few 85 and 90 year olds.
I was following links through further, and I find conflicting information:
https://www.ed.ac.uk/news/2021/delta-variant-increases-risk-of-hospitalisation
The title suggests that the Delta Variant Increases the Risk of Hospitalization:
Working with this data, I find:
Dividing 134 by 7,723, I would conclude that 1.7% of the Delta cases resulted in hospitalization. This doesn’t seem very high to me.
Subtracting Delta cases from total cases, I find that there were 243 hospitalizations out of 11,820 cases, or 2.1%. This also doesn’t seem very high.
I can see no way that this data supports the conclusion the website gives: “The Delta variant of Covid-19 is associated with approximately double the risk of hospitalisation compared with the Alpha variant,” unless there were more younger people hospitalized, and this somehow changed the results. But even then, the overall hospitalization level was very low, in for both groups.
In Sweden they are 0…. no lockdowns no masks…
That said … past performance should not be taken as an indicator of what is to come…
Bossche predicted exactly what is happening .. exactly…. and he is predicting much worse…
Patience grasshopper… patience…
Do you seriously believe that we are being told to Inject children and pregnant women … to protect them from something that cannot harm them?
Just sharing the schadenfreude! 🙂
Mr. House posted this at TAE:
SHOT:
If you don’t believe in vaccinations, I genuinely think you are an idiot. Like, legitimately dense. A moron. I hope that every soda you order is flat. I hope that one of your boot-heels has a click and you can’t figure out why. I hope that you hit every red light. I hope that when you wake up in the morning and head outside to snag the paper from the lawn, you walk through your front door and into a spider web. But primarily, I hope none of your family or friends suffer from your complete failings as a functional member of society.
Jordan Hayes, February 23, 2021
CHASER:
Yesterday afternoon, on July 6th, 2021, the world lost one of the brightest, most talented and deeply loved humans that has ever existed. Jordan Dale Hayes, age 33, died at Mt. Sinai Hospital in New York City. Less than a week before his death, Jordan went to the ER with chest pains. What was found to be a small heart attack quickly led to two open heart surgeries. Complications arose and Jordan suffered multiple catastrophic strokes that ultimately proved to be too much for his body to overcome. He passed quickly and painlessly surrounded by those who loved him the most.
+ + + + +
Back to me!
Kelly Bee on Twitter writes:
“Two months after fully vaccinated, 33 year old Jordan Hayes was hospitalized with chest pains. He passed away after two open heart surgeries and strokes. Today, @EconomicTimes reports—heart attack and stroke are the main causes of death from COVID shots. ”
However, there’s an upside. This is a teachable event for all of us—jabbed and unjabbed alike:
“It’s no longer a question if these shots cause blood clots. The question is what to do about them. Please learn how to recognize the signs and seek immediate medical attention. https://veryhealthy.life/9-silent-signs-of-a-blood-clot-in-your-body/3“
It doesn’t get much better than this….
Ha.. the cattle are getting more than restless… I am Entertained!!!
Poitiers town hall stormed by protestors
https://twitter.com/LetItShine69/status/1419663112974778376
Police and firemen fighting each other
https://twitter.com/Tya_ght/status/1419662761815072769
I love the French.
https://off-guardian.org/wp-content/medialibrary/12-memes-8.jpg
norm:
https://off-guardian.org/wp-content/medialibrary/06-memes-8.jpg
I have just found this on line, it is how to convince us vaccine hesitant to get jabbed. https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2021-03-29/coronavirus-vaccines-concernes-conversation-guide/100018588
Seriously, that reads exactly like a religious proselytizing guide.
They’re looking to create missionaries who will spread the faith for the new Branch Covidian religion.
I’m working on my guide to how to respond…
https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-PK_6_JY7PlQ/VstMr4XchKI/AAAAAAAAKV4/jZHKyms9vk4/s1600/600x600sr.jpg
You might want to point out that none of the Covid-19 injectables so far used has the potential to “immunize” anybody against anything. The makers specifically mention that their products do not prevent infection or transmission of the virus. So in declaring that the vaccines are a means of” immunization”, the good people at ABC Health & Wellbeing are sadly misinformed and are spreading disinformation or “fake news” to the general public, which I’m sure even Duncan would agree is lamentable.
those are excellent propaganda tactics. why is there such an effort expended when the vaccines are proven to be leaky and therefore do not provide herd immunity? could it be a fascist (private-government) profit opportunity? did we expect less from the Biden-Obama III administration?
In my province of BC we have a hydro electric dam under construction ( referred to as Site C) this supposed green project is estimated to generate $4 billion in clean hydro electricity. The part I find puzzling is the $16 billion costs. Hydro is like solar where all your costs are up front but right now I’m thinking this might be a good thing as the depleted parts of the planet with huge population declines first and this energy source now paid for with cheap debt can keep us going for another decade or two. Canada also produces double the oil it consumes and I realize that both power sources require just in time delivery of parts but we are getting more self sufficient there as well.
BC is over twice as big as California and instead of 80 million people that 2 California’s would have we’re at 4.9 million. The least population with intact resources gives me some hope .
Quick doomstead report: on the lake where I’m located a property just came on the market. It’s not quite big enough for a house because of the required septic system but you can park your RV and it does have a 10 by 12 bunkhouse – yours for $1,970,000.00 . The price is ridiculous to be sure but my doomstead is now at the $2 million mark with taxes to match my price years ago was $80K. Who says being doomy doesn’t pay?
Maybe things will work out. I know that Prof. Charles Hall retired to the Lake Flathead area of Montana because it is associated with a dam that produces hydro electricity. If this can be kept operating, it would seem to be able to produce at least a low level of hydroelectric for citizens. Whether or not it can provide for the heavy needs of industry is a different question.
Once it is built, the major issue is maintenance of the plant and of the transmission lines. If the supposed green project cannot sell enough electricity at a high enough rate, the owners can default on the debt. In some sense, that is not a problem. But the owners somehow need to be able to pay the workers at the hydroelectric plant. And the engineers that manage the electrical transmission system need to still be paid by someone.
It is difficult to see exactly what part of the system “goes.” If you don’t have enough food and fresh water, that will definitely be a problem. I would still look for a backup supply of wood to burn for heat in BC.
As BC dweller perhaps ought to come to terms with high probability that in larger crisis at least 1/3rd – 1/5th of your southern neighbors migrate near you.. plus the outlier scenario of human caravans even originating from the Central and South Americas or even Asian boating parties hitting the shores..
This will all likely happen, the question remain about scale, I’d say still manageable after-all. Pls. don’t take it as message from sore looser party spoiler, you have it VERY good comparatively speaking with the prospects of the rest of ~8Bpop, the only real disadvantage being the prevailing rocky soils, but that could be slowly upgraded at least for the minimum sustenance plot with a bit of trade surplus potential.. as you are likely aware anyways..
to add to my previous post below:
the chance of getting covid is now RISING.
IF the gov/MSM does not tell the truth about the diminishing effectiveness, THEN the odds will rise more at least in the near term, perhaps into Fall and Winter.
(I intend to continue to avoid the jabs.)
Everywhere I look I can see Fauci suggesting the Boosters are necessary….
More Boosters = More Variants…
Variants = Good
Good = CEP
“Deadly Blood Clots Develop In 62% of People Receiving COVID Vaccine? “ ?
https://www.redvoicemedia.com/video/2021/07/do-documents-prove-fauci-knew-in-2012-that-vaccines-targeting-the-spike-protein-a-cause-slow-death-video/?utm_source=in-article-related-2
“We’re Turning Bricks Into Batteries” – Nov 27, 2020
“Bricks can be converted into supercapacitors using a basic chemical process. Can be charged and discharged for 10,000 cycles with a power decrease of just 10 per cent. Three bricks could power a green LED on a single charge for ten minutes. Still a long way from being ready-to-go energy storage solution for our homes but could be useful for emergency illumination. We are happy to make clear that the bricks are still a concept proof rather than a ready to go solution.
“Nanofibers can be treated with acid to increase capacity by a factor of 10. Team also working on ways to transform nanofiber into composite materials that contain other semiconductors. Other groups have mixed bricks with nanoparticles to clean out air emissions and one has made bricks that can conduct electricity by adding carbon nanomaterial electrodes.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQ74KTuBm4U
“Bricks Can Be Turned into Batteries,”
By Shahla Farzan on September 10, 2020
“The brick battery relies on the reddish pigment known as iron oxide, or rust, that gives red bricks their color. The scientists pumped the bricks with several gases that react with iron oxide to produce a network of plastic fibers. These microscopic fibers coat the empty spaces inside the bricks—and conduct electricity.
“’What we’re trying to do is: we’re trying to make specialized plastics that are only used on the nanoscale—where we use very little of the plastic, and we can actually embed that plastic inside construction materials’”)
“In the future, D’Arcy says, a brick wall could potentially serve a dual purpose: providing structural support and storing electricity generated from renewable energy sources, such as solar panels.
“The technology is still at least a few years away from being ready for the commercial market. And right now, the energy storage capacity of the bricks is still pretty low—about 1 percent of a lithium ion battery. But the team is now testing ways to improve brick performance—because it looks like you can teach an old brick new tricks.”
https://www.scientificamerican.com/podcast/episode/bricks-can-be-turned-into-batteries/
Maybe––we will see. I wouldn’t hold my breath if the energy storage capacity is now 1% of a lithium ion battery. We need solutions now, not 10 year from now.
The solution: we all accept living small. Each individual citizen gets three bricks!
“Three bricks could power a green LED on a single charge for ten minutes.“
I don’t see this technology, or any unclassified technology for that matter, serving as a direct replacement for our current energy inputs. No matter how you slice it, the “solutions” are going to require significant step-downs in energy consumption for the majority of people. Different lifestyles; different emphases on what constitutes “the good life.”
Lately, in my own life, I think about leaning away from landscape digital photography and more toward landscape charcoal drawing. I’ve always been a printed book fan rather than a Amazon Kindle user. Playing the electric guitar sure is fun but an acoustic guitar projects beautifully without needing electricity.
Can we live happy, contented and meaningful lives without the constant glow of our screens and the hum of electricity? Can we choose to reconfigure our lives in an effort to become more resilient as our complex technology systems fail us?
Some on Our Finite World may argue that it’s “all or nothing,” that there can be no controlled technological step-down for the human race without destroying the human race. I’m not so sure about that. We’ve survived for quite some time here on Earth with widely varying levels of technology. Perhaps it would be more precise to say that “not everyone could adapt to and/or survive a controlled technological step-down.” That there is no one-size-fits-all answer to the human race’s current energy predicament doesn’t mean that there isn’t an answer for a portion of the human race. Another way to put the question would be: who among our species will survive? Who will endure the changes that will inevitably come as a result of our current energy predicament? Who or what “kind” of humans will best thrive in the future “post cheap energy world?”
The most beautiful drawings ever made by the hand of man – those of the Italian Renaissance and the French 18th -century artists – were made using a material simply dug up, split and sharpened – ‘sanguine’, a kind of red chalk.
Charcoal, too, as you say, although being more fragile they are rarer.
I have a jar of it: but alas not – quite – the talent!
Thank you for that example, Xabier.
I, too, could do with more talent. More free time could help with that, presumably.
good vax posts lately by many here.
my recent thoughts/questions, please comment/reply.
1. the jabs gradually become ineffective after about 6 months.
2. the vaccines are just as effective then ineffective against the variants.
3. therefore the surge in high % of vaccinated people getting covid is due to the weakening effectiveness, not due to the variants being able to avoid the vax effectiveness.
4a. the “newer better” mRNA type of vax is actually no better or maybe even worse than the older conventional dead virus type of vaccine.
or
4b. this particular virus can not and will not ever have a vax that will work against it effectively for a long term of multiple years or decades with just two jabs.
5. the health consequences of getting jabbed every 4 to 6 months are unknown.
Also,
If we don’t vaccinate and instead treat with the drugs we have, COVID-19 may reach herd immunity. It seems impossible to ever reach herd immunity with the new vaccines. They seem to be too short-acting and not broad enough. They also don’t seem to stop the spread of the illness.
I agree. The poor results of these vaccines should be made known to everyone.
Natural versus vaccine immunity:
https://www.acsh.org/news/2021/03/19/natural-immunity-or-vaccination-better-15409
I’m unimpressed by that article.
“How long will the immunity last? We don’t know yet, but only time will tell. Again, most vaccines confer equally long-lasting immunity.”
I think recent data at least from Israel and UK shows that vax immunity fades to near zero after about 6 months.
the mRNA vaccine technology may be a big giant failure.
though we don’t know yet for sure.
Hey mike … just in case you missed this….
People vaccinated before late February are twice as likely to catch the coronavirus than other inoculated Israelis, according to new research.
“We looked at tens of thousands of people tested in the month of June, alongside data on how long had passed since their second shot, and found that those vaccinated early were more likely to test positive,” Dr. Yotam Shenhar, who headed the research, told The Times of Israel.
“This definitely reinforces the argument for giving a third vaccine dose to the elderly.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/hmo-those-who-inoculated-early-twice-as-likely-to-catch-covid-as-later-adopters/
In the McCullough interview from yesterday he is asked if there is anything people can do if they have been Injected…. his response was… unfortunately no — that stays in you forever …
I think it’s time for …..
https://i2.wp.com/www.thescoopng.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/colbert-i-told-you-so.png
Pay the price mike… Pay the Price….
norm? As an Old Goat… you are in the very high risk category … Extra High because you have been Injected!!! Stay away from the pub norm… hide away norm… Red Alert!!!
Shall we crowd fund one of these for norm mike and dunc?
https://www.vyzrtech.com/products/biovyzr
mike … what’s it like … to be you?
I recommend the Summary https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/post/a-last-word-of-caution-to-all-those-pretending-the-covid-19-pandemic-is-toning-down
There can be no doubt that, at this stage, the pandemic is gearing up for breeding vaccine-resistant ‘supervariants’, a phenomenon that is at risk of fueling an even larger wave of morbidity, hospitalization and, unfortunately, also death, not at least in the vaccinated part of the population.
The Horror… The Horror!!!
CEP Tonight Baby!!!
Sounds like a reasonable strategy – what does mike think?
Americans are ‘mixing and matching’ Covid vaccines over concerns about the delta variant
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/26/delta-people-are-mixing-and-matching-covid-vaccines-over-concerns-about-variant.html
I’ve got a sore throat… all these extra antibiotics in the medicine box… hmmm… I’ll take one of these… and maybe one of the green ones… oh… these look nice … bright red!… I’ll drop two of them….
Does it not occur to CovIDIOTS how ridiculous it is to take what are supposedly totally different vaccines????? How can that possible make any scientific sense?????
Of course the vaccines are all the same… they call came out of the same factory … they all do exactly the same thing… they breed deadly variants…. that’s why you can mix and match…
People are really just so f789ing s t.ooopi…d. Really really really s —- d.
Let’s check the Whatsapp …. nothing .. the CovIDIOT Wall of Silence continues.
Gentle reminder time?
They are actually making the virus worse…. but that’s the whole point!
The dissemination of novel mRNA treatments throughout the global population is working perfectly.
They were clearly never intended to prevent this illness, still less to completely eradicate the Viral Terror.
How to explain that to the fools who lined up so eagerly?
The warnings were clear, even in the PR material from Big Pharma last December, but they ignored them:
‘We don’t yet know quite how they will work in practice, but it’s a fantastic technology!’
That’s pretty much what the UK Chief Science Officer said when he announced the start of vaccination.
Can people not read, after God knows how many years of state education? ! Well, we know the answer to that…..
mikenormdunc can’t wait for the Booster!
The Booster: get your’s today!
Another technological miracle from Big Pharma!
The Gingerbread House is even better inside: walk on in, children!
Latest YT report from Ice Age Farmer, 21st July. He mainly discusses what looks like will be a global shortage of wheat this year, since so many of the main exporters, Russia, Canada, USA, et al are having issues with drought. The last article he reviews suggests that the biggest factor re food shortages over the next few years will be the shortage of chips, as in processors.
Global Wheat Supplies Short as Drought/Flood Ravage Crops & Supply Chain Falters
Excellent video, Minority of One. Thanks for posting the link.
No problem
Oh what a rat race – it is a disgrace on the human race.
“You are too rude. Don’t forget your history, remember your destiny. Some a b/stard, some a h/oligan.”
No surrender to the c 19 state
So tell me O; Farrel where the gathering is to be.
We consider ourselves to be entirely betrayed by the UK and by the I/A. We will see you all gone soon enough.
Don’t think that I have to protect you all the time – I really don’t.
Oh, this finite world of ours. It’s like a sad old kinda movie.
I would not listen to any of that slanderous rubbish. The world is fine just the way that it is, and without it there would be nothing. There is no other world. If you still think that I entertain that sort of rubbish then you do not know me at all. The final vid should have been a ‘heads up’.
CDC implicitly admits that PCR tests cannot distinguish Sars.cov-2 (TM) from influenza viruses. Really?!
https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/07-21-2021-lab-alert-Changes_CDC_RT-PCR_SARS-CoV-2_Testing_1.html
The site seems to say that the current PCR tests will be discontinued for COVID detection, effective December 31, 2021. I din’t run across a reason why, although I didn’t read everything.
My guess is that the PDR test is not calibrated well enough to pick up COVID variants. There may be an issue of it not being able to tell COVID from Influenza as well, if it is used a high number of cycles, but I didn’t see that mentioned.
I think that when they say that “CDC encourages laboratories to consider adoption of a multiplexed method that can facilitate detection and differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses”, they are implicitly admitting that PCR testing does not make that differentiation, or at least that it is not very effective at it. (Which btw doesn’t surprise me at all.)
Good point! I found it when I looked for it.
A test that cannot distinguish between influenza and COVID-19 is not of much value.
And voila! Influenza just disappeared for a year, in deep disguise as Covid.
All the bad publicity of a century must have been getting to her…..
The inaccurate tests did their job, in justifying the horrendous lock-downs and the deployment of the injected poisons, with innumerable false positives.
Good fishing in muddy waters, for some…..
The wording is bad in the report. Does it mean differentiation between variants within sarscov2 when being tested and the same for differentiation between variants within influenza. Or does it imply differentiation between sarscov2 and influenza? If it is the second then that really means the testing has been a massive misreporting.
does appear to be between covid and flu when reading the other links.
This gets confusing, because there are both “flu reports” and data coded to death certificates on the use of death. I found something on the CDC site that says, “While flu deaths in children are reported to CDC, flu deaths in adults are not nationally notifiable.”
If I look at one report (not by the CDC itself) with respect to the 20/21 flu season running from October 1, April 1, 2021, it says “646 deaths were attributed to the flu.” This is obviously way too low.
https://hive.rochesterregional.org/2020/01/flu-season-2020
This same report also says, “In 2019/20, there were 195 pediatric deaths. There was one pediatric death during the 2020/21 season.”
Obviously something went wrong!
But when I look at data from the death certificates, I find the following numbers by year:
2017 55,672
2018 59,120
2019 49,783
2020 53,720 (more may be reported later)
The 2020 numbers look reasonable. So I think that, somehow, influenza deaths are making their way to the death certificates.
I don’t think that we can jump to the conclusion that flu deaths are automatically being dumped in with COVID-19 deaths.
I notice that the “Monthly Provisional Counts of Deaths by Select Causes 2020-2021” (which I downloaded) has two different columns for COVID-19. One is called “Multiple causes of death.” The other is called “Underlying cause of death.” The “Underlying cause of death” column shows numbers that are about 90% as high as the “Multiple causes of death” column.
Data in Portugal is even more fun. According to news today, no one died of the flu between October 2020 and April 2021.
In 2018/19, more than 3300 had died of flu in Portugal. In the winter of 19/20 that number dropped suspiciously to 920…. And now ZERO! Awersome. Total Success!
But the same patterns is observable everywhere in UE.
https://observador.pt/2021/07/26/ninguem-morreu-de-gripe-em-portugal-nos-ultimos-meses-mas-especialistas-alertam-para-atividade-gripal-mais-intensa-no-proximo-inverno/
https://www.jn.pt/nacional/covid-faz-cair-mortes-por-gripe-para-zero-13973719.html?target=conteudo_fechado
Zero flu deaths in Australia since July 2020 according to the ABS.
Oh the miracles of modern medicine.
When I look at this site:
https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/07-21-2021-lab-alert-Changes_CDC_RT-PCR_SARS-CoV-2_Testing_1.html
It seems to show a long list of authorized tests, many of which are PCR tests. Now that I look at it further, it seems to be that simply one particular type of PCR test is being disallowed. It is “CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel, the assay first introduced in February 2020 for detection of SARS-CoV-2 only.”
Apparently, there are new, better versions of the test.
If I read it correctly, the CDC website mentions only one RT-PCR test for covid-19 detection: the 2019-nCoV Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel, that was authorized for “emergency use” (like the covid-vaccines…how curious!) in February 2020.
Also mentioned is a PCR test for “Flu & Covid-19” : the CDC Influenza SARS-CoV-2 Multiplex Assay, also authorized for “emergency use” in July, 2020.
Apparently they’ve now found out that their PCR “test for covid only” isn’t effective at differentiating covid from flu…. Well…
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/virus-requests.html
I thought it was interesting that this web page is called, “CDC’s Diagnostic Test for COVID-19 Only and Supplies”
The italics for “only” are in the page title.
This page starts out:
“The CDC 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT–PCR Diagnostic Panel detects the SARS-CoV-2 virus in upper and lower respiratory specimens. It is designed to be used with an existing RT-PCR testing instrument commonly used to test for seasonal influenza virus.”
So, it sounds like what happened is the CDC tried to adapt the instrument used to detect seasonal flu to also detect COVID-19. The catch was the instrument could not differentiate between the two.