The Afghanistan Fiasco (and Today’s High Level of Conflict) Reflect an Energy Problem

There is a saying, “Everything happens for a reason.” The fiasco in Afghanistan is no exception to this rule. Even though it is not obvious, the United States is up against energy limits. It needed to pull back from Afghanistan to try to have enough energy to continue in its other roles, such as providing benefits for its growing army of retirees, and building infrastructure to mitigate the COVID-19 downturn.

The fundamental problem is that governments can add debt and other indirect promises of resources that create goods and services, but they cannot actually create the low-cost energy, water and mineral resources needed to fulfill those promises.

The way energy limits play out is not at all intuitive. Most people assume that we will run out of oil, leading to a spike in oil prices. We will then transition to renewables. As I see it, this understanding is completely wrong. Limited energy supply first leads to a need for simplification: Stepping back from Afghanistan would be one such type of simplification. It would save energy supplies and reduce the need for greater tax revenue or added debt.

In this post, I will try to explain some pieces of the problem.

[1] Afghanistan was, and continues to be, in some sense, a “handicapped country.”

Everyone knows that the way a country can succeed in the world market is by providing needed goods or services to other economies at low cost. Afghanistan is a landlocked country. It also doesn’t have any big rivers it can use to transport goods out of the country. It isn’t a member of a trade alliance such as the EU to allow smooth transport of goods out of the country. The difficulty of transit into and out of the country adds a layer of costs that tends to make the country uncompetitive in the world market. No matter how much investment any country makes in Afghanistan, this handicap will still persist.

Also, Afghanistan has too high a population relative to its resources. We know that most wars are resource wars. The fact that Afghanistan has been involved in wars for many years hints at this problem. According to UN 2019 estimates, Afghanistan’s population was 7.8 million in 1950, 21.6 million in 2001, and 38.9 million in 2020, which is about five times the 1950 population. Water needs, in particular, tend to escalate as population rises.

[2] The US doesn’t know how to fight a guerrilla war.

The weapons developed by the US are too complex to be used in a guerrilla war. They tend to break down and require replacement parts. Needless to say, these parts are not available in Afghanistan. Even if Afghan soldiers are trained to use these weapons, they may not be available or suitable when needed.

George W. Bush should have known from the outcome of the 20-year Vietnam conflict (1955-1975) that any guerrilla war was likely to have a bad ending. In Afghanistan, the plan was to train Afghan soldiers, thus keeping US citizens out of the battlefield. This strategy kept the Afghan conflict off the front page of US newspapers, but the overall result seems to be similar.

[3] When George W. Bush took office in 2001, he seems to have had access to more funds than he knew what to do with. Starting a war in Afghanistan probably seemed like a good use for these funds. He could perhaps build military bases, and perhaps raise the standard of living of the people there.

The price of oil was especially low in the 1998 to 2001 period. This allowed tax revenue to “go farther” in providing benefits to the economy, allowing a temporary budget surplus. With such a surplus, getting funds appropriated for any purpose would likely have been easy.

Figure 1. US Budget Deficits and Surpluses by Year. Chart by Steve Benen. Source.

Even more importantly, with a fairly young population, the Social Security system had been collecting funds in advance of when they were needed, with the plan of building up the plan’s Trust Fund for use when a bulge in retirements was expected, starting about 2010. Figure 2 shows one chart that roughly illustrates the overfunding and planned use for the funds. Unfortunately, Figure 2 doesn’t treat investment income in the way it is actually collected; it leaves out past investment income and uses discounted cash flow assumptions for the future, so a person cannot readily estimate net contributions to the Trust Fund balance by year from this chart.

Figure 2. Forecast of Social Security surpluses and deficits. Chart by Peter G. Peterson Foundation, based on Social Security Administration, The 2020 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Trust Funds. Source.

Figure 2 indicates that there was considerable overfunding starting in the late 1980s. The thing that actuaries (and others) didn’t consider is the fact that there is a real difference between debt and the physical resources that will be needed when these older people retire. Retirees will need food, water and energy to heat their homes. They will need medicine and long term care institutions. They should also be able to provide their share of the upkeep of roads and electricity transmission networks.

Debt is a promise of future funds to purchase goods and services, but it doesn’t make the resources required to create these goods and services materialize out of “thin air.” To keep these promises, oil needs to be extracted, refined, and delivered to farmers. There needs to be enough fresh water available to irrigate adequate farmland to produce the required food. There need to be supply lines that are working to deliver the required food. There need to be enough young people who are willing to work on farms and in care centers for the aged. The wages for these young workers need to be high enough so that they too can have food, shelter and other things that we consider necessities.

When the extra Social Security funds were collected, the officials who collected them figured out that as a practical matter, there was little that they could do with them besides spend them at the time they were collected. They couldn’t set up warehouses with food, clothing, building materials and energy resources to keep on hand for 30 or 40 years. If they invested the money in the stock market, the money would simply cause a bubble in stock prices. If they built new factories or nursing homes, they would be unfairly competing with existing businesses.

I am not sure that there is any good record of how these extra funds were spent. My understanding is that they provided a very large slush fund that allowed expanded military activities among other things. From an accounting point of view, non-marketable government debt was substituted for the funds that were spent. Thus, when an actuary looks at the Trust Fund, it is fully funded. It is just that it is funded with more US government debt.

The catch is that the non-marketable US government debt doesn’t actually correspond to any resources. Any food used in 2022 (or 2050) will need to be grown in that year, using resources available in that year. Most clothing used in a given year will need to be produced with resources available at that time. Putting together a model that assumes business as usual forever tends to give a rosy picture because it leaves out this detail.

The 2020 OSDAI Trustees Report provides actual income, outgo, and interest income through 2019. From this report, it can be concluded that the extra Social Security slush fund is rapidly disappearing. In fact, it seems to be turning to a hidden source of required year-by-year funding starting as soon as 2020 or 2021.

In some sense, the “real economy” operates on a “cash basis,” rather than an “accrual basis.” This has not been recognized in our accounting or our models. Ignoring the way the system really works likely leads to a hidden crunch, starting about 2021. We know that retirements were high in 2020, adding to the potential problem. I am certain that President Biden and his advisors are aware of this issue, even though it is never reported on the front pages of newspapers.

[4] There is really a two-sided energy price problem. Consumers can afford only low energy prices but, as the result of depletion and population growth in oil exporting countries, producers need high oil prices.

Figure 3 is a chart I prepared a few years ago. In it, there is a pattern of rapidly rising wages when oil prices were very low. Workers became more productive with new factory equipment and vehicles, produced with oil, and operated using oil products. As a result, their wages rose.

Figure 3. Average wages in 2017$ compared to Brent oil price, also in 2017$. Oil prices in 2017$ are from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018. Average wages are total wages based on BEA data adjusted by the GDP price deflator, divided by total population. Thus, they reflect changes in the proportion of the population employed as well as changes in wage levels.

On the other hand, when oil prices spiked, the prices of many goods, including food, airline tickets, and the fuel used for commuting to work, rose. People cut back on discretionary income, such as eating in restaurants and vacation travel. Businesses with fewer customers laid off workers. The workers who could find jobs often found lower-paid or part time jobs. The result was a dip in average wages, both in the 1970s and at the time of the Great Recession of 2007-2009.

We now live in a world with depleted resources. The oil and other types of energy that are available are high in cost, but the prices tend to stay too low for producers when all costs are included. Oil resources from the Middle East and Venezuela, especially, need a higher oil price because the governments of these countries need very high taxes on oil revenue to support their large populations. Even shale oil from the United States needs a higher price than is available today.

If we want OPEC to supply the rest of the world with more oil, the price will need to rise much higher than today’s Brent oil price of about $73. It likely will need to rise to at least $100 per barrel and show that it can stay at this high level. Otherwise, the supposed reserves of OPEC will mostly stay in the ground.

Even the US needs a higher oil price. Its oil, gas and coal production fell during the pandemic in 2020. Through May 2021 (and even later using weekly data, not shown), oil and natural gas production has not rebounded to the 2019 level.

Figure 4. US fossil fuel average daily production by month through May 2021, based on data from the US Energy Information Administration. NGPL means natural gas plant liquids. NGPL are extracted with natural gas but condensed out and sold as liquids.

Note that oil and gas production also dipped in 2016. Figure 3 shows that oil prices were also low then. If prices are too low, would-be producers leave them in the ground.

Adding in nuclear and renewables (hydroelectric, ethanol, wood, wind, solar and geothermal) still leaves a large dip in recent production.

Figure 5. US average daily production by type based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.

President Biden is no doubt aware of the fact that the US’s production of energy products, especially crude oil, is now low. In fact, earlier in August he asked OPEC and its allies to increase their oil production to try to keep prices from rising too much. Why would OPEC want to increase its production, if the US can’t increase its own production at the current price level? All of the producers need a higher price level; it is consumers who cannot afford the higher price level.

[5] The world seems to have already begun shifting to a falling energy consumption per capita situation.

The amount of energy required tends to rise with population because all of the people require food, housing and transportation. Energy, especially oil and coal, are needed for these.

Figure 6. Energy consumption per capita for all energy sources combined based on data from BP’s Statistical Review of Energy 2021.

Many countries, including the United States, have been able to hold down their internal energy consumption per capita by moving much of their industry to China and India.

Figure 7. US energy consumption per capita, divided between industrial and other, based on information of the US Energy Information Administration. Energy consumption includes both electricity and fuels such as oil, coal, natural gas, ethanol and wood burned for heat. All transportation fuels are in the “Ex. Industrial” portion.

Figure 7 shows that US industrial production reached its peak in 1973, which was shortly after US oil production started to turn down in 1971. This partly reflects auto manufacturing moving to Japan and Europe, where smaller, more fuel-efficient cars were already being sold. Home heating and electricity generation also shifted away from oil to other fuels.

The issue now is that “Ex. Industrial” consumption has been falling since the Great Recession. In some sense, the economy has been losing strength since 2008 and continues to lose strength. Fewer and fewer people can feel like they are really getting ahead. They are saddled with low wage jobs and too much debt.

Figure 8 shows similar patterns for the European Union and Japan. Energy consumption per capita was rising until a few years before the Great Recession, and then it plateaued. It has been declining since.

Figure 8. Energy consumption per capita for the European Union and Japan from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

The pattern shown on Figure 8 suggests that energy prices are still too high for consumers, even though they are, at the same time, too low for producers. Travel restrictions imposed by governments may also be contributing to this pattern.

GDP data indications are prepared on an accrual basis. In other words, they reflect the impact of added debt. If missing energy can be replaced with a promise of debt to pay for more goods and services in the future, made with future energy, then perhaps all will be well. The quantity of debt that is required, relative to the GDP impact, keeps rising, suggesting this substitution is not working very well.

Figure 9. Dollars of additional debt required to add $1 dollar of GDP growth (including inflation), based on data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

With the addition of growing amounts of debt, GDP increases are reported to be much larger than expected growth, based only on the growth in energy consumption.

Figure 10. Average annual increase in energy consumption for the period shown based on EIA data versus average increase in real (inflation-adjusted) GDP for the period shown, based on data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

[6] We now seem to be reaching the end of the line with respect to what can be done with added debt to make the economy seem like it is performing adequately well.

Interest rates show a very distinct pattern. They rise until about 1981, and then they decline.

Figure 11. US 10-year and 3-month interest rates through July 2021, in a chart prepared by FRED.

When the US economy was growing rapidly, it could withstand high and rising interest rates. Since 1981, the general pattern has been one of falling interest rates, making a larger quantity of debt affordable. Indirectly, these falling interest rates also helped prop up asset prices, such as those of homes and shares of stock. In recent years, interest rates have fallen about as far as they can go. To some extent, these lower rates were made possible by Quantitative Easing (QE). But at some point, QE needs to be stopped.

Today, interest rates are approximately at the level they were during the Great Depression of the 1930s. This makes sense; interest rates to some extent reflect the return an investor can expect to make. Right now, without a lot of government support programs, “Main Street” businesses around the world are struggling. This indicates that the economy is doing very poorly. There are too many people who cannot afford even basic goods and services. Indirectly, this feeds back to commodity prices that are not high enough for producers of energy products.

Recently, governments of many countries have tried a different approach. Instead of loans, they are providing something closer to giveaways. Renters are allowed to stay rent-free in their apartments. Or, checks are given to all citizens earning below some specified amount. What we seem to be finding is that these giveaways produce inflation in the price of goods that poor people buy most frequently, such as food and used cars.

The giveaways don’t actually produce more of the required goods and services, however. Instead, would-be workers decide that they really don’t want to take a low-paid job if the giveaways provide nearly as much income. The loss of workers then acts to reduce production. With lower production of goods and services, a smaller quantity of oil is required, so the oil price tends to fall. The price certainly does not rise to the level needed by oil producers.

[7] In a finite world, longer-term models need to take into account the fact that resources deplete and the population keeps rising.

Any modeler who tries to take into account the fact that resources deplete and the overall population keeps rising will quickly come to the conclusion that, at some point, every economy will have to collapse. This has been known for a very long time. Back in 1957, Admiral Hyman Rickover of the US Navy said,

Surplus energy provides the material foundation for civilized living – a comfortable and tasteful home instead of a bare shelter; attractive clothing instead of mere covering to keep warm; appetizing food instead of anything that suffices to appease hunger. . .

For it is an unpleasant fact that according to our best estimates, total fossil fuel reserves recoverable at not over twice today’s unit cost, are likely to run out at some time between the years 2000 and 2050, if present standards of living and population growth rates are taken into account.

Now, in 2021, it looks as if this problem is starting to hit us. But no one (since Jimmy Carter, who was not re-elected) has dared tell the general public. Instead, accrual accounting with more and more debt is used in financial statements, including GDP statements. Actuaries put together Social Security funding estimates as if the resources to provide the promised benefits will really be there. Climate change models are prepared as if business as usual can go on for the next hundred years. Everything published by the mainstream media is based on the underlying assumption that we will have no problems other than climate change for the next 100 years.

[8] About all that can be done now is to start cutting back on the less necessary parts of the economy.

President Biden’s abrupt pullout from Afghanistan reflects a reality that increasingly has to take place in the world. The US needs to start pulling back because there are too many people and not enough inexpensive to extract resources to fulfill all of the commitments that the US has made. As mentioned earlier, there are a number of obstacles to success in Afghanistan. Thus, it is a good place to start.

With the need to pull back, there is a much higher level of conflict, both within and between countries. The big issue becomes who, or what, is going to be “voted off the island” next. Is it the elderly or the poor; the military or the oversized US medical establishment; university education for a large share of students or classroom teaching for young children?

We don’t seem to have a good way out of our current predicament. This seems to be what is behind all of the recent internet censorship. Renewables and nuclear require fossil fuel energy for their production and maintenance. The powers that be don’t want anyone to know that nearly all of the “happily ever after using renewables” stories we hear are based on wishful thinking.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,463 Responses to The Afghanistan Fiasco (and Today’s High Level of Conflict) Reflect an Energy Problem

  1. jmslandreth
    Jimothy says:

    I’m a farmer. The last two years have been hell for most farmers, at least around me. Seed garlic has gone from $8 a pound to $30 a pound–a little more than the price of an ounce of silver. That’s if you can find it. East of the mountains in eastern Washington a ton of farms are going bankrupt this year due to inflation, drought, and poor planning.

    There’s also breakdowns in the feed supply chain and a big strain on fertilizer. Fruit tree prices have also gone up by a third to half from a lot of places. The real estate boom is also driving up land and housing valuations and therefore raising property taxes

    Luckily, my orchards are all established and I can sit back, for the most part

    • The agricultural folks are so underappreciated in this society it’s not even funny.

      It sounds difficult right now- thanks for sharing and all the best with it.

      • jmslandreth
        Jimothy says:

        Thank you both! Good luck going forward. I’d advise you to garden and stockpile, but a) you’re likely already aware and b) it can only do so much anyway

    • On other avenues via YouTube channels that post like topics, there are many videos on the horrible state of the agricultural sector and prepare today for food shortages.
      Thank you for the on the ground report…yes, good luck…

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Thanks for your on-the-ground update. I can believe that a lot of farmers, in many parts of the world, are having difficulties.

  2. Another fine piece of propaganda from the BBC:

    Call for investigation of menstrual changes after Covid jabs
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58573593

    “…The UK’s regulator has received more than 30,000 reports of period problems.”

    The article does not mention the UK’s Yellow Card system, but I think this is what “The UK’s regulator” refers to. I have seen articles and video discussions that state the Yellow Card system, like its USA equivalent VAERS, vastly under-reports issues. UK Column News a few weeks ago said that there used to be a warning on the Yellow Card system website stating that the number of issues reported was about 10% of the real number.

    The gist of the article seems to be that none of the 30,000 reports have anything to do with getting vaxxed. The person calling for an investigation, Dr Victoria Male, from Imperial College London, does not want an open-minded investigation into what causes these problems, but seems to already know that it has nothing to do with getting vaxxed and the investigation is to prove this.

    The real reason for the article seems to be “Vaccine hesitancy” amongst young women. Clearly a lot (it might not be that many, but enough for the BBC to be told to tackle the issue) of young women / teenagers have seen this issue on social media, or indeed have spoke to someone with issues, and are not getting vaxxed. The article says it’s safe, get vaxxed anyway. In summary, a disgraceful piece of propaganda, if not outright lies.

    • Xabier says:

      The medical establishment persists in treating people like idiots, but the correlation between injection and the onset of distressing menstrual problems is very clear in terms of cause and effect – like mass micro-clotting or deeper damage to fertility, which can go unnoticed being asymptomatic.

      One hopes that awareness of this issue spreads, as so far women have been instrumental in pushing the vaxxes given their inherent desire to feel safe and protected.

      Angry women will be a force to be reckoned with, combined with resistance to injecting children (against the advice the vaccination advisors in the UK).

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Let’s not forget the women who masked up during pregnancy and are birthing mental midgets….

        When they look into the eyes of their children and see listless brain dead morons…. how will they react?

        This is so good … because there are actually grim consequences to this form of Delusion… believing in EVs and solar might cost a DeluiSTANI some money …. Believing we have landed on the moon in a machine that is taped together with panels falling off… harmless….

        CovIDIOCY kills and maims them ….

        Bravo! Bravo!!

        I am very pleased that so many MOREONS are getting injected .. most people are MOREONS so why would anyone be surprised at the uptake for the untested injections?

  3. DB says:

    Yet more evidence that official stats on COVID are faked or intentionally distorted (hospitalizations, in this case):
    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/09/new-missouri-covid-whistleblower-hospitals-lying-public-covid-can-prove/

    There is no way to make sense of COVID from official or corrupted (most researchers) sources, as I noted in spring of last year and Dr. Malcolm Kendrick also recently concluded.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I am not convinced that faking data is a widespread problem. I looked at some more Georgia data. Georgia is one of the states with the supposed ICU problem.

      I also looked at the local newspaper, which is complaining about an ICU problem. According to the paper, the total number hospitalized is down; it is just the ICU rates that are high. Two-thirds of ICU beds are needed for non-COVID patients. The problem is keeping the ICU count down (without giving the patients ivermectin, antihistamines and steroids, which might send them home quickly).

      The CDC has a site where a person can see the hospitalization and ICU beds occupied by COVID patients for any county. You may need to click on the country on the countrywide map.
      https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view|Risk|community_transmission_level

      For my own county, 25% of the “regular’ hospital beds are occupied by COVID patients. This is likely not a problem. 43% of ICU beds are occupied by COVID patients. I imagine this may be a problem.

      If I go to the next county north of where I live, which is more rural and perhaps has fewer beds relative to the population, the CDC site reports that 42% of the regular beds and 64% of the ICU beds are occupied by COVID patients. I expect that the ICU bed situation is especially a problem. Even the regular bed number may be high.

      • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
        Ed says:

        One article I read gave me the impression a hospital had four floors of cv care and closed three of them. Then claimed overloading using only the one floor to calculate load.

  4. Dennis L. says:

    Thoughts on US Medicare/Medicaid:

    Came across a quote from a TX hospital that maintaining services with vaccine mandate would not be possible, but neither would not accepting both Federal insurances.

    Another example of Gail’s and others’ thesis that this is a way of cutting back on resource utilization?

    Stuff is getting expensive: recent purchase of rigid conduit at Menard’s, increase of $12 per length from a previous base of approx. $60. Shelves are sometimes sparse for items, we have two stores, as of yet if one is out the other has the item, last resort Lowe’s or HD, both are generally more expensive.

    Dennis L.

    • France suspends 3,000 health staff as Europe targets vaccine refusal

      “PARIS, Sept 16 (Reuters) – Hospitals, care homes and health centres have suspended around 3,000 workers across France for failing to comply with mandatory COVID vaccination, the government said on Thursday, as countries around Europe weigh how far to go to combat the pandemic.

      “While Italy is set to announce later on Thursday that proof of vaccination or a negative test will be compulsory for all workers, going further than any other country in the region, the Netherlands plans a similar step – but only to go to bars or clubs.

      “Britain, meanwhile, says it is highly likely to require front-line health and social care workers in England to be vaccinated as part of a plan to contain the virus during winter.”

      https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/around-3000-health-workers-suspended-france-over-vaccination-minister-2021-09-16/

      This will be another manufactured health crisis. An increase in patient deaths that previously would have been preventable but occurred due to “staffing shortages.”

      Perhaps these governments think that they can blame the coming deaths on the “selfish” healthcare workers who refused the “vaccines.”

      It’s coming down to a choice between the health of the healthcare worker or the health of the patient. Refuse the injection, and you’re suspended from providing care and saving lives. Accept the injection, and you may become too debilitated or too dead to provide care and save lives. Either way, people will die and healthcare services will shrink.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        There are fewer healthcare workers and less healthcare expenditures if vaccines are mandated. It is indeed a strange way of doing things.

        • Xabier says:

          Strange indeed, unless the aim is a Russian-style demographic decline while maintaining the operation of the system as whole.

          Only the transition to the digitised of the ‘4th Industrial Revolution’ matters, not individual lives.

          We are the eggs in the omelette, and will be smashed.

        • In a genuine global health crisis, would it ever make sense to suspend healthcare workers?

  5. Yoshua says:

    China’s dollar junk bond yields hits March 2020 levels as Evergrande technically defaults.

    China is in trouble? The Chinese government will bail out Evergrande to avoid contagion and more defaults due to rising yields? The housing bubble is finally popping? The rising energy and commodity prices are making the construction companies unprofitable?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E_a2N30XsAA8Hoc?format=jpg&name=medium

    • Trigger point collapse

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      China has a real problem with its reliance on condominium sales, and loans directly and indirectly related to those sales. The problem certainly looks like it could spread.

  6. Hubbs says:

    Clash between Health Insurance Companies and Health Care Providers

    From my e-mail exchange with my brother, a recently retired mechanical engineer.

    On Thursday, September 16, 2021, 12:59:07 PM EDT, my brother wrote:

    “My spider sense is tingling… I seem to see a lot of reports about hospitals reflexively prescribing ventilators and remdesivir to covid patients who, seemingly as a consequence, promptly die. It seems like a threefer. Get the federal covid payment, get rid of a burdensome patient, get political points with the medical autocracy. Something to keep an eye on.”

    And my response:

    And don’t forget the fourth : Block effective treatment by withholding cheap, effective, safe drugs like Ivermectin and HCQ, vit D , zinc.

    In my book I offhand mentioned the power struggle between health insurance companies and hospital providers. One would think health insurers would balk at reimbursement (they always try to deny payments first, and employ armies of uneducated insurance claim agents to block payments- at least to physicians) unless Ivermectin had been tried first, since vaccines, drugs like Remdesivir, ventilators and ICU hospital stays ( one recent report indicates that patients with mild symptoms are being admitted to hospitals to boost the census and profits) are very costly.

    In short, then you have a classic clash of the titans. Hospital providers vs insurance payers. What has become of this.? Is the government quietly reimbursing the insurance companies? I will post this question to Gail Tverberg who is a retired health care actuary who follows this kind of data carefully.

    Then we need to talk to life insurance companies who might balk at early payouts on policies if there is a secret plan to cause a population “die off”- meaning more death benefit payouts. It may be that there are not enough deaths to affect the bottom line of Life Insurance Companies.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I come from the casualty insurance end of this. I worked with medical malpractice, workers compensation, and some other casualty lines of coverage. I do know a little about health insurance, however.

      Health insurance in the US is mostly provided by the employer. The “insurance plan,” such as it is, is mostly paid by the employer, with the insurance company just covering a small amount, if costs turn out to be unusually high. This happens because health care costs tend to be fairly constant, from year to year, for a given company.

      A company like an airline would be paying nearly all of its hospitalization costs. If it thinks it can reduce hospitalizations by having its employees vaccinated, it will push for vaccination. It won’t think about any long-term impact on more variants.

  7. announcing imminent arrival of 17th living descendant—just to send the anti vaxxers into a frenzy

    that’ll be 3 this year

    can someone volunteer to step off the planet to make room please?

    • Congratulations, Norman! Your seed apparently fell on fertile ground.

      • i gave up the fertile ground thing many years ago.

        i think my lot go around looking for new pastures or something.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Shall we put odds on if the child lives till it’s first birthday? More is ending… not an ideal time to be celebrating the outcome of fornication

        • ive thought it all along

          but it’s good to have it confirmed just what ‘fast eddy’ really means.

          Interesting to observe how long Gail will tolerate your level of obscenity

          • Malcopian says:

            FE is making a punning and satirical comment about Normal’s little pamphlet, “The End of More”. Now why doesn’t Normal the Narcissist see that?

            Normal has just boasted about his latest descendant while pretending not to boast about it. Yes, we are all conflicted in these times.

            But I agree with John Cleese, who said in defending his own comedic taste, “Nobody has the right NOT to be offended!”

          • Xabier says:

            Black humour and satire are not the same thing as ‘obscenity’.

            And, even then, obscenity has its rightful place – to wake people up.

            The voice of FE is one that suits these times.

            • your last line is one of ultimate, final, irrefutable truth….one to be cherished, to be added to the blue plaque to put on his wall after his eventual demise.

              read it again—may i have your permission to use that line at such times as i think necessary from now on? Please??????
              (I will of course give you full accreditation, each time) eventually there may be royalties.

              in the meantime i shall take the necessary medication to prevent a heart attack

              through laughing so much

            • Tim Groves says:

              Anyway, with three new direct descendants in one year, It hardly looks like we’ve reached the end of more Pagets yet. (Or at least related to the Pagets along the maternal line.) And although he may have written the book, it would be quite wrong to blame Norman for the fruitfulness of his offspring.They are just doing what comes naturally to young humans.

              I assume these new arrivals are great grandchildren.The woman who runs the bar where I would be drinking if it were not for the emergency became a grandmother at the age of thirty, and so has the chance of becoming a great-grandmother by the age of sixty. But I would expect the odds on becoming a great-great grandparent in one’s lifetime are quite low.

              Incidentally, the Japanese word for “great-great-grandchild” that is much shorter and easier to say than the English equivalent: yashago

              Child 子 ko, or 供子 kodomo
              Grandchild 孫 mago
              Great grandchild 曽孫 himago
              Great-great grandchild 玄孫 yashagho (or genson)

              I hope Norman will live to see his first yashago, if he hasn’t already. But how close is the genetic relationship between the generations? Assuming for the same of simplicity that there are no first cousin marriages and every ancestor is unrelated to every other since time immemorial (a huge and unfounded assumption, I grant), grandchildren share a quarter of their genes with each grandparent, great grandchildren share an eighth of their genes with each great-great grandparent, and great-great grandchildren share a sixteenth of their genes with each great-great grandparent.

              So a great grandchild is a distant genetically from their great grandparent as a first cousin. At least, that’s what I worked out while scratching my head this morning.

          • Tim Groves says:

            “Those who are determined to be ‘offended’ will discover a provocation somewhere. We cannot possibly adjust enough to please the fanatics, and it is degrading to make the attempt.”

            ― Christopher Hitchens

          • Mike Roberts
            Mike Roberts says:

            The sad thing is that several commenters here, and Gail, seem to be happy to have someone insulting and denigrating others as their main discussion strategy. This is a strategy that clearly shows the person using it to be devoid of convincing argument. What that says about those who appear to like the strategy is, tbh, also sad.

            • Tim Groves says:

              See what you did there, Mike? You insulted several commentators by insinuation and Gail overtly by lobbing half-baked innuendo and logically flawed inferences in their general direction. What that says about you is that you are no nicer than the people you denigrate.

              But I do understand, it must tiresome and frustrating having every comment you make pounced on mercilessly. And so unjust too. Especially when you are yourself are always so reasonable, polite and good tempered.

              But, as Inspector Maigret said, “Life has many properties… Fairness isn’t one of them.” Just ask some of the hundreds of thousands, or is it millions? of people who by now have experienced life-changing vaccine induced injury.

            • Mike…
              my general observation, as i’ve pointed out before, is that it all seemed to kick off on the conspiracy thread from about 2015/16.

              The OFW archives clearly confirm this.

              which was the period when ‘social media’ passed a tipping point and moved to the situation where everyone had access to it—and could thus be their own conspiracist.

              First law of conspiracy: conspiracies cant be conspiracies until someone else agrees that they are.

              So they trawl the internet looking for like minds. They find them, and quickly become an evangelical congregation. (or should that be coagulation?)

              2nd law of conspiracy:–Non believers must be ridiculed and shouted down.

              Thus we now have the monster of QAnon…which is the spawn of all previous ‘conspiracies…WTC–Moonscams, Climate change–and all the rest.–you name it—its a hoax. A secret cabal aiming the clear the world of unwanted people. Or something.

              None of which existed until everyone had a hand held conspiratometer.

              3rd law of conspiracy: Everything adverse to your ideal world is someone else’s conspiracy against you.

              why do i bother?

              because of the private feedback i get telling me to.
              And writing is like any other skill–it’s kept sharp through use.

              And the screaming that it’s rubbish, in certain quarters, forms the perfect honing stone.
              I still have a long way to go in that respect, as i freely admit.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              Except that for “conspiracy theory” to stick, there must be some evidence that self-organizing systems really work in this strange way. We may characterize them as conspiracies, but it may be that a handful of very influential people can carry them off, or that people following their own self-interest can sufficiently push in one direction that they allow/force strange results to happen.

            • all these conspiracies are post-event, not pre event

              people recognise trends, and misinterpret those ‘trends’ as something ‘pre arranged’ when in fact it is the lemming hypothesis.
              Lemmings do’t ‘conspire’ to jump off cliffs.
              (not that they do anyway)

              we assert that some kind of ‘pre determination’ has taken place, because our hand held conspiratometers tell us that it is so.

              so we do it in retrospect–and come up with all kinds of nutty theories that suits whatever the current mode of hysteria happens to be.
              Essentially it is a form of attention seeking.—“Nobody listens if I discuss things rationally—so I’ll say something bonkers. Then people will react to what I’m saying.”

              Global warming is a hoax!!—ooooooo–thats what i think too. I’ll agree with that and join his church.

              The economic system is collapsing. Must be Bezos and co planning it. -ooooo I believe that–I’ll join that church.

              The CIA spent months inside the WTC setting demolition charges.

              People are plotting to reduce world population by 90%

              People want to kidnap babies and vaccinate them

              And so on. All as stated on OFW by the usual suspects.

              All part of the same picture.

              In no time at all you have 000s of people storming the Capitol.
              Mass hysteria..
              but they were all certain they were right. Just as the list i’ve given above is ‘right’ to 000s of people.

              And the biggest shyster of them all had their best interests at heart. Yes, people really are that stupid.But nobody like to admit it, even when shown to be.

              These are the people who remain convinced that prosperity is merely a matter of voting for it. And if they remain poor–it must be a plot against them.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              I would say that the Global Warming conspiracy is pre-event. It is based on the faith that the oil, coal and natural gas reserves that we can see in the ground can actually be economically extracted and used in the economy. Not everyone believes that this is possible.

            • global warming was postualted by Arrhuis in the 1800s

              the oil crisis by Carter

              both ridiculed out of hand.

              there is no ‘precise’ point of AGW, or an ‘oil crisis’–hence the deniers can go on denying.

              they will only be agreed in hindsight, when most of those doing the denying will be dead.

              AGW is happening, and its accelleration is being felt now, so the screams of denial are increasing now. they are increasing in tandem.

              We seem to be past the tipping point. No one is willing to actually do anything meaningful (including me)

              atmospheric carbon is at its highest level for 800000 years.

              just before i was born.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              The story that we can do anything about it now was invented, however.

            • a feeling born of desperation i think–though in a sense that is the other side of the coin.

              if our leaders simply threw up their hands and told the truth, all hell would break loose.

              so they have no option but to keep making promises–jobs depend on infinite growth–politicians jobs more than anyone

            • Fast Eddy says:

              You need to read the fine print…. it’s acceptable to denigrate Moreons in the interest of maintaining the sanity of the valuable contributors who graciously give their time and genius to making OFW the Greatest and Most Important Blog on the Planet….

              The beatings that are administered (and approved) are way of channelling the anger and frustration of having to read MOREONIC comments day after day from people who are incapable of learning…

              Into a 3 ring circus side show that amuses the Core while we go about the serious business of discussing how BAU ends.

              That leaves the Clowns with Two Choice:

              1. Don’t read stuff you don’t like — for instance I delete most of the garbage you post mike

              2. Leave

              3. Let’s add a third… continue to put on make up and your clown suit and be mocked and ridiculed and exposed as the fool that you are.

            • so what’s being lined up for the hoaxlist for 2022 eddy?

              been trying to figure out what it might be.

              i have to admit your mockery and barstooling over the paralympics caught me by surprise.

              i didn’t think anyone would need to go that low for subject matter

              and how did the paralympics get into OFW anyway—was that, as you put it, part of the serious business of BAU?

            • Kowalainen says:

              “We seem to be past the tipping point. No one is willing to actually do anything meaningful (including me)”

              Speak for yourself – self entitled prima donna of IC.

              How about chucking in the oats and crank those pedals? That is as good of a start as any.

              Now, will it make any difference? Obviously not. At least it buys you some integrity and legitimacy of the story you peddle.

              DO IT PRINCESS!

    • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
      Ed says:

      Congratulations Norman. I am happy when good people have kids, grand kids, great grand kids.

    • Dennis L. says:

      Nice going.

      Dennis L.

    • Tim Groves says:

      Why on earth would the anti-vaxers object to you being fruitful and multiplying. They tend to be Bible respecting, if not thumping, Christian types. No, it’s the athiest depopulation lobby who you’ll be sending into a frenzy. You know ’em. The ones who say “How dare you!? You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words. Yet I am one of the lucky ones. People are suffering. Blah, blah, blah…..”

      • from the comments on this thread, posted by the usual suspects, my observations were sadly correct.

        i was merely curious as to how silly their words would be, i cannot bring myself to qualify them with any sort of answer

        • Tim Groves says:

          I posted to point out a major error in your logic, not that I was expecting an admission or a retraction. But I was also wondering how snide and evasive your likely response would be.

          You didn’t disappoint me.

    • Xabier says:

      But living for how long, Norman?

      We told you they were coming for the children, and they are – injecting them, moreover for non-medical reasons in the UK.

      We said they would come for the babies and toddlers – and that is clearly underway, too.

      If it survives, it will be a permanently medicated and brain-washed slave in a Totalitarian system: a prospective fate which deserves no congratulations.

      And do stop using the term anti-vaxxers’ for those who are better-informed and have more sense than yourself. It is a term of propaganda, and most unintelligent.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        If it survives, it will be a permanently medicated and brain-washed slave in a Totalitarian system

        norm is nearly there already so the adjustment would be minimal

        • Xabier says:

          True, FE, very true.

          Norman and his kind are already very well adjusted to a sick society.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            norm cannot even claim to be a has-been… he is intellectually stunted… has zero curiousity or interest in pursuing truth….

            Sounds like a guy who writes how to manuals for a living … now that is the perfect job for a dullard.

    • Jarle says:

      “anti vaxxers”

      The term you’re looking for is thinking.

  8. Yoshua says:

    The depopulation quote is a conspiracy theory from Russia.

    Not everything on the internet is real. My bad.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      It certainly does sum up what some of us are worried about, however.

    • Foolish Fitz
      FoolishFitz says:

      Maybe not Yoshua. The quote comes from the Michel Salomon book Future life and was apparently in the first French edition, but edited in all later versions. I tried to find a first edition and had no luck, but have seen pictures claiming to be from the first edition.
      His career path and other quotes by him would make one believe it’s highly likely that he did say exactly what you quoted.

      • Xabier says:

        We should always take the attribution of ‘quotes’ revealing evil plans with a pinch of salt.

        The important thing is to observe what is being done, the trend of events, and to ask: ‘Cui bono?’

        ie If this is being done, what end might it serve?

        Not just ‘Who makes money from this?’ – although that is always a motivational factor.

  9. Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
    Ed says:

    From the worldometer

    In the last seven days deaths

    India 2K
    US 11K

    India Ivermectine
    US vax

    India 1.36 billion
    US 0.33 billion

    India poor
    US less poor

    • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
      Ed says:

      per capita deaths seven days

      India 1470 per billion
      US 33,300 per billion

      • jj says:

        What a amazing metric. Perhaps a doggy will be along to woof at it. perhaps not. Most dogs wont bark at a moose or brown bear.

        all the more amazing because social distancing simply doesnt exist in India.

        congratulations India. Congratulation Japan. You have demonstrated you care about the lives of your people.

        I am not sure they counted on Ivermectin to upstage their experimental brew. Hand of god? or the old axiom? planning develops the edge but luck wields the sword.

        There is sure no going back now. They simply can not allow informed logical debate about their witches brew. Micki Minaj might show up at the met with a VAX the RICH dress.

        If history is any guide the time that toto tugs on the curtain is brief indeed. While they are versatile it will probably be old reliable. False flag. Perhaps at this justice for j6 on the 18th. Who in their right mind would go to DC now? Mostly doggys dressed up as wolves would be my guess.

    • Mike Roberts
      Mike Roberts says:

      A working paper.

      India lacks an authoritative estimate of the death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic. We report excess mortality estimates from three different data sources from the pandemic’s start through June 2021. First, extrapolation of state-level civil registration from seven states suggests 3.4 million excess deaths. Second, applying international estimates of age-specific infection fatality rates (IFR) to Indian seroprevalence data implies a higher toll of around 4 million. Third, our analysis of the Consumer Pyramid Household Survey, a longitudinal panel of over 800,000 individuals across all states, yields an estimate of 4.9 million excess deaths. Each of these estimates has shortcomings and they also diverge in the pattern of deaths between the two waves of the pandemic. Estimating COVID-deaths with statistical confidence may prove elusive. But all estimates suggest that the death toll from the pandemic is likely to be an order of magnitude greater than the official count of 400,000; they also suggest that the first wave was more lethal than is believed. Understanding and engaging with the data-based estimates is necessary because in this horrific tragedy the counting—and the attendant accountability—will count for now but also the future.

      It’s not peer-reviewed research (not that that matters to some here) and I don’t know how accurate its estimates are likely to be but as so many here think all official figures are bunkum it at least offers an alternative look at deaths in one country.

  10. Yoshua says:

    Bilderberg discussed depopulation programs already in the 80’s. The ideas thrown of wall seems to have stuck. The situation today is very close to what one of its elite members wrote.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E3jtXrjWQAErVn4?format=jpg&name=900×900

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This is what the image says.

      Here from a 1981 book (Verbatim) by Bilderberger Jacques Attalli is an example of the Elite’s mindset:

      “The future will be about finding a way to reduce the population. Of course, we will not be able to execute people or build camps. We get rid of them by making them believe that it is for their own good. . . We will find or cause something, a pandemic targeting certain people, a real economic crisis or not, a virus affecting the old or the elderly, it doesn’t matter, the weak and the fearful will succumb to it. The stupid will believe in it and be asked to be treated. We will have taken care of having panned the treatment, the treatment that will be the solution. The selection of idiots will therefore b done by itself; they will go to the slaughterhouse alone.”

      This, in a few words, is our problem.

      • Thierry Chassine
        Thierry says:

        Gail, have you read the book? This quote has been debunked according to mainstream media so I’m not sure it is true.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          You are probably right. But it certainly is close to what we have been reading from many sources.

        • MM says:

          There exists an ongoing discussion about 2 publishing dates.
          80s are already deleted.
          I recently posted a video by Attali about codes.
          We are in a behavioural change process. If we like it or not.
          Gail would say “dissipative systems work in strange ways”.
          Very true.

          • worldofhanumanotg
            worldofhanumanotg says:

            You mean like specific year printed edition (version) disappeared from the lib / used book market?

            Well, that happens to sensitive stuff too, but usually why bother. But, occasionally (and apart from property / fin scams angle), some oligarch or “aristocratic” families are indeed trying to whitewash and obfuscate their hist record on the physical-evidence plane as well, but that’s usually sign of their (today’s) incompetence not the other way around – it’s more flashy and valuable to be of Vlad Dracula lineage proper sort of thing..

            I’m not versed into this specifically, Attalli seems to fit the profile of such mouthful ~lower rank associates in these deep circles.

    • hillcountry – retired electronics manufacturing engineer
      hillcountry says:

      Here’s an Executive Intelligence Review (LaRouche guys) article dealing with the history of the ideas and the attempts to institutionalize them. EIR et.al were very antagonistic to Limits to Growth. The fight was pretty much right out in the open back then. I once thought LaRouche had to be working for the Vatican, but half his organizers and stable of writers were Jewish, so I never really figured that out.

      https://larouchepub.com/eiw/public/1981/eirv08n19-19810512/eirv08n19-19810512_050-origins_of_global_2000_a_map_of.pdf

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Thanks! The idea of reducing population certainly seemed to be around at that time.

  11. Student says:

    The news is horrible and interesting together. They finally got there !
    In Slovenia you must have Covid passport to go to the gas station for your car….
    It is incredible !

    https://www.byoblu.com/2021/09/16/slovenia-nuovo-avamposto-del-regime-sanitario-green-pass-ovunque-anche-per-fare-benzina-proteste-e-scontri-dinanzi-al-parlamento/

    • worldofhanumanotg
      worldofhanumanotg says:

      Slovenia is very tech friendly society (from NPPs to IT) – seems like someone picked it up as good little “keep it silent” prototyping ground for the scheme..

      • JMS says:

        The future for the intelligent individuals (as in anti-vax people) is walking or biking for the years they have to live, that’s for sure. Alas, i wonder at what point in 2022 (2023?) will I have to give up the locomotive magic of my trusty Mercedes 190. I’m already missing it, my garnet horse, I could dedicate an elegy to it, or at least an haiku.

        • Xabier says:

          The WEF is whispering in your ear, JMS:

          ‘Get down from your chariot,: you are but a man, and not a god……’

          • JMS says:

            And we can’t really say they are wrong, Xabier. Speed wasn’t meant for bipeds. And humans, especially those who don’t know history, take too many things for granted, the most obvious of which is the absolutely divine privilege of travelling at 120 km an hour. Industrial civilization, what a ride that was!

      • Xabier says:

        I’d agree, worldof; parts of the Plan and various control strategies are being trialled in different, often obscure, countries.

        The Balkans and the Baltic states seem deal for that, also India/Pakistan, etc.

        Partly off the radar…….

    • worldofhanumanotg
      worldofhanumanotg says:

      ps don’t forget there are standing gov plans / mandates inside the policy drawers of most countries for disaster or war like situation about rationing fuel / energy already..

  12. Yoshua says:

    The Vax destroys the T-cells. Cancer is up 20 times among the vaxxed. Other diseases are up too. Maybe that is people have started to be infected with multiple viruses simultaneously?
    Surely the health authorities know? The governments and the elite is in hurry to kill us off? They know that the virus collapse is imminent?

    Luc Montagnier’s comment is in the article.

    https://adarapress.com/2021/09/15/cancermayo-trained-pathologist-reports-a-20-times-increase-of-cancer-in-vaccinated-patients-ive-never-seen-this-many-endometrial-cancers-before/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    • Sam says:

      Ok really?!?? I not pro vaccine but this sounds like b.s to me! You kill the argument when you just throw all the sh$t and see what sticks. Have you ever studied statistics? If you had you would not be spreading this… Oh and by the way oxygen causes cancer!

      • nikoB says:

        I agree, not much to the article. However, I do think that we will have to be on the watch for cancer uptick in general due to the damage that spike protein from the virus or vaccine does to mitochondria.

  13. worldofhanumanotg
    worldofhanumanotg says:

    RT interviewed people on boulevard in Paris today, one guy said he expects EUR250 natgas heating bill per month this winter, and shutting it on/off anyway to save money..

    Under the vid appeared this comment, perhaps made by semi-official troll but to the point:

    “Europe wanted to hurt Russia by not signing long term contracts and implemented measures “to make Russia play by the market”. Well… who is laughing now? Shot yourself in the foot. Go ahead EU, pay the market price of almost $900-1000. Kudos to the few smart countries that signed long term agreements back when prices were $200-400.”

    ps energy policy is in the EU is chaired by former gynecologist nurse or something..

  14. Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
    Ed says:

    Two things

    I read one headline that said the mRNA is getting transcribed into the DNA. The article was behind a paywall so that is all I have.

    One of the videos here on OWF has a guy saying the mRNA codes not for the spike protein but for mad cow disease.

    Regardless of the truth of these I would have thought if we are trying to inject 70% of the species we could 1) require an explicit and public posting of the exact mRNA sequence being injected and that repeated testing of the vax distributed would be undertaken by each nation and health authority 2) a full genome sequence before and after injection would be done. Done 1 day after, 30 days after, 90 days after to check that no reverse transcriptions is taking place. This would be for say 1 check case per 10,000 injections. 3) We all agree on what the mRNA is coding for.

    As none of these have been done we are not talking about medicine and health.

    Why doctors and public health officials are not complaining?

    • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
      Ed says:

      Does the mRNA flush out of the body after a set amount of time?

    • Yorchichan says:

      “One of the videos here on OWF has a guy saying the mRNA codes not for the spike protein but for mad cow disease.”

      The mRNA codes for the spike protein, but the spike protein itself contains a prion-like domain.

      https://www.freedomomaha.com/the-spike-proteins-is-actually-a-prion/

      Dr Fleming starts talking about prions around the 27m45s mark in the embedded video.
      What he says is when the prion like domain of the spike protein comes into contact with proteins in the brain, it causes them to mis-fold. A chain effect of mis-folded proteins eventually results in Alzheimer’s or mad cow disease. Mice modified to have the same receptors in their brains as humans died of BSE two weeks after being infected with the spike protein. This is the equivalent of one and a half years for humans.

      Never mind, Ed: BSE is supposed to be a pleasant way to die.

      • worldofhanumanotg
        worldofhanumanotg says:

        Thanks for the summary, so looking towards the end of 2022? I’m not denying existence of such ultra fast scenario, but would not be there notable difference then to face heightened mortality vs the non mRNA / adenovector ? Actually, Billy G. talked the Oxford jab out of going licence free as they announced earlier, perhaps it was “merely” the money thing motive (every $B counts), not necessarily because hiding of the contents..

        • Yorchichan says:

          As I understand it, the adenovirus vaccines contain the spike proteins already and mRNA vaccines cause the body to create the spike proteins. Either way, the vaccine can cause ADE or prion disease.

          I think if ADE or BSE are going to cause death for the majority of recipients in less than two years, given the inevitable time variability in disease progression in different people, many would die this winter. But would the true cause of death be reported? Doubt it.

          • worldofhanumanotg
            worldofhanumanotg says:

            Is there known functional protocol how to slow this process down, apart from that often listed set of vitamins and hormones.. against sars / flue ?

          • Christopher says:

            It’s not obvious that every vaccination will result in spike proteins reaching the brain. May be a rare effect.

            Is there anyone other notable dr beside Flemming who warns of the prion effect from the spike proteins? It may be just speculation. I guess we will se.

            • Yorchichan says:

              It’s not obvious either the relative risk of vaccination vs natural infection where spike proteins crossing the blood-brain barrier is concerned. But the blood-brain barrier did not prove too much of an obstacle in the rhesus monkeys or mice experimented upon.

            • Tim Groves says:

              There is Luc Montagnier. He is extremely concerned. And Bart Classen wrote a scientific paper on the vaccines and the risk of prion disease. (Links are in the linked article.)

              A few months ago, when we read the article “COVID-19 RNA Based Vaccines and the Risk of Prion Disease” by J. Bart Classen MD, found below, we found it plausible. Unfortunately, Dr. Luc Montagnier finds this plausible, as well. In 1963, Montagnier was the first to demonstrate that RNA viruses replicate like DNA, when studying the RNA virus Encephalomyocarditis virus.

              If you’ve already taken a Covid-19 vaccine, you may not want to read this article, and simply pray that you are spared. However, you should consider reading if you are considering a booster shot.

              Montagnier raises the concern that the mRNA vaccines, such as Pfizer and Moderna, could cause prion disease (e.g. CJD “mad cow”, and possibly Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s diseases). Montagnier says, in a France Soir interview (link below), that he always remembers the 120 children injected by the Pasteur Institute with growth hormone from patients who had died of Alzheimer and Parkinson’s diseases. The children later developed CJD (Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease), suggesting a relationship between the three. He has additional concerns, too, such as the possibility of autoimmune disease. It may take 5 or 6 years for intermediate impacts of the vaccine, such as neurodegenerative disorders, to appear, according to Montagnier. Montagnier also discusses the possibility of bacterial cofactors in Covid-19.

              https://miningawareness.wordpress.com/2021/08/24/covid-19-neurodegenerative-disease-risk-from-pfizer-mrna-vaccine-prions-cjd-alzheimers-parkinsons-disease/

    • Lidia17 says:

      This is a good post on the transcription topic:

      https://www.algora.com/Algora_blog/2021/03/16/mit-harvard-study-suggests-mrna-vaccine-might-permanently-alter-dna-after-all

      cites an MIT paper:
      “we describe evidence that SARS-CoV-2 RNAs can be reverse transcribed in human cells by reverse transcriptase (RT) from LINE-1 elements or by HIV-1 RT, and that these DNA sequences can be integrated into the cell genome and subsequently be transcribed. Human endogenous LINE-1 expression was induced upon SARS-CoV-2 infection or by cytokine exposure in cultured cells, suggesting a molecular mechanism for SARS-CoV-2 retro-integration in patients. This novel feature of SARS-CoV-2 infection may explain why patients can continue to produce viral RNA after recovery and suggests a new aspect of RNA virus replication”

      https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33330870/

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        I agree that this is an interesting (and concerning) article. The authors of the preprint article were apparently trying to figure out why some people continued to test positive on the PCR test, long after they should have been over COVID. The answer seems to have been (if I understood the article) that they seem to have been making some portion of the spike protein themselves. The author of the Algora blog article points out that the vaccine mRNA would seem to be more likely to do this than the mRNA from actually catching COVID, because of the treatment given to the mRNA in the vaccine.

        I notice that the article came out in March, 2021, and the preprint came out in December, 2020. At this point, it seems like there may be updated information. For example, the preprint might now be now a peer reviewed paper. There might even be others looking into this subject.

      • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
        Ed says:

        Thanks Lidia. If we are rewriting the germ line of the human species!!!! Let’s hope it is a positive change. If it were positive I would think they would advertise it.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I listened to the 2 minute and 19 second video (in French, with English subtitles), but I didn’t see/hear anything that said, “Everyone will die within two years.” Most of the article is about things we are all aware of. Vaccination is what is causing the mutations. There will likely be ADE.

      • Student says:

        I think it is correct what you say Gail. At this regard I have also heard Montagnier saying he has never said that, but he confirms that they could have ADE and also they could have unknown medium and long term negative effect due to this vaccination.

      • Tim Groves says:

        There seems to be a concerted effort to blacken Montagnier’s good name BECAUSE he is warning that mRNA vaccines could be very dangerous and to take them is unwise at the present juncture. So we get these stories claiming he is saying everyone will die, which allows the nauseating talking heads on the dying legacy phoney fake-news lame-stream media to him in the role of a loony. It’s a form of BLACKWASHING.

        Yoshua, you are digging up a lot of sensationalist clickbait stuff recently.

        Here’s what Montagnier has actually been saying recently, in his own words in his own immutable French English in conversation with some German scientists. This sounds a lot like “‘Allo ‘Allo!” to my ears, but I found it worth listening to.

        https://www.bitchute.com/video/FjQt8f1fZv25/

  15. zeroscore8584
    zeroscore8584 says:

    I see reports that hospitals are overwhelmed in about a dozen states. I see that many of them are complaining of staffing shortages. Is that because many quit due to vax mandates?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I think that missing nurses and other workers is a significant part of the problem. Missing nurses and other workers could be for a lot of reasons: lack of child care, vaccine mandates, fear of getting ill, early retirement.

      Local areas have not been quick to cut back on elective surgery, either.

      COVID cases in the US and in many US states seems to have “peaked” and are now heading down. A peak in hospitalizations follows first, and a peak in ICU cases follows later, because of the lag between cases, hospitalizations, and ICU cases. I believe that the issue now is mostly with ICU beds. These get “clogged up” for a long time. It is hard to get early patients out to put new cases in. Of course, if they were given antihistamines and steroids, the problem might be significantly reduced, but that is not the way the hospitals are treating the problem. Ivermectin might also help.

  16. “Stagflation Fears Cast Longer Shadow on Markets as Energy Surges…

    ““The next big issue confronting markets could well be energy prices,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda Asia Pacific Pte… “I am actually getting quite concerned as we head into winter that nobody is really hedged against this move as we could see a very sharp spike in energy prices into the last quarter. That may feed through into ever more inflation.””

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-16/stagflation-fears-cast-longer-shadow-on-markets-as-energy-surges

    • “Stagflation stalks the [UK] economy and there is no ‘get out of jail free’ card…

      “No wonder the Treasury is nervous… in Britain, where the additional Brexit supply shock [on top of covid supply-chain chaos] risks an even bigger budget deficit and wider current account deficit, Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, is apparently so worried about confidence in the public finances that he has insisted on substantial tax rises even before the recovery is firmly established.

      “Yet the danger is that this will deepen the hit to living standards, leading to increased demands from employees for inflation-busting pay rises. That could lead to an inflationary spiral, to which the Bank of England will have to respond with higher interest rates.”

      https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stagflation-stalks-the-economy-and-there-is-no-get-out-of-jail-free-card-z6677cccr

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      No one stopped to think that the energy resources that seem to be available might be too expensive for customers to afford.

      • Sam says:

        Why is it that all economic blogs and YouTube experts never discuss energy?! They only talk about the manipulation of the markets to overcome any problems. Such a glaring blind spot

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I expect that a sharp increase in prices will lead to a sharp increase in defaults on debt, unless somehow governments start guaranteeing all debt.

  17. “Security personnel in the Chinese city of Shenzhen on Thursday took away protesters who gathered outside the headquarters of cash-strapped real estate developer China Evergrande Group…

    “Security personnel responded to sporadic chants of “Evergrande return our money” by waving a banner that said “police evidence” while an officer filmed the protesters who were shouting.”

    https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/protesters-taken-away-outside-china-112056691.html

    • “As China Evergrande’s debt crisis deepens, unpaid small business owners speak of despair…

      “An owner of a small marketing and consultancy business from one of the poorest counties in Guizhou province said he had accepted Evergrande commercial paper from a client and was waiting on 1.5 million yuan in payment that was now two months overdue.”

      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-evergrandes-debt-crisis-deepens-113808295.html

      • “China’s digital currency will track all activity…

        “The issue is tracking all activity and approving or denying any desired choice according to the current measures of state-determined trustworthiness.” [podcast]

        https://mcalvanyweeklycommentary.com/chinas-digital-currency-will-track-all-activity/

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          When studies have been done of “happiness,” it is my recollection that China rates quite low. I believe it is because the overall invasiveness of the government in trying to control every activity.

          When rolling blackouts because of inadequate electricity appear, I wonder how well this digital currency will work.

          I remember when I visited Inner Mongolia in 2015, I could not get the shop keeper to take a credit card. Only cash was accepted. I suspect that what the government wants to do, and what actually happens, will vary widely, depending on the area of China. I know that this was true with the one-child policy. While the government would like an iron grip everywhere, it takes a lot of energy to enforce it. It may not happen for long.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      It doesn’t sound like China’s attempts to control behavior through a “score” for each individual are working very well.

  18. “The pandemic has widened the chasm between markets and economy.

    “A few months into the pandemic, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had warned that the recovery that follows would be K-shaped. It’s becoming clear global equity markets and economic growth are the two divergent forks in this ‘K’.”

    https://www.livemint.com/market/mark-to-market/pandemic-has-widened-the-chasm-between-markets-and-economy-11631727234705.html

    • “As rich-poor divide widens between nations, UN urges reform…

      “A new report from the United Nations on Wednesday highlights divergent economic recoveries between nations and throws fresh urgency behind warnings that richer nations are not doing enough to help poorer countries from falling further behind…”

      https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/9/15/as-rich-poor-divide-widens-between-nations-un-urges

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        The rich nations aren’t really doing all that well themselves. They have lost a lot of workers. Energy prices are high.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The article says:

      “The net global equity allocations stood at 50%, which is much above a 20-year average of 29%, said the BofA survey.”

      Of course, if bonds aren’t really yielding much of anything, and some of them may default, then stocks look like the “way to go.”

  19. “Afghanistan’s banks are running out of dollars, and may have to close their doors to customers unless the Taliban government releases funds soon, three people with direct knowledge of the matter said.

    “The cash squeeze threatens to upend the country’s already battered economy…”

    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/running-out-dollars-afghan-banks-ask-taliban-more-cash-2021-09-15/

  20. “The [South African] National Treasury is asking parliament to consider approving a bill seeking urgent additional funding allocations of more than R32bn to address the impact of unrest in July and the Covid-19 pandemic for the 2021/22 financial year.”

    https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2021-09-15-treasury-seeks-more-than-r32bn-to-address-impact-of-july-unrest-and-covid-19/

  21. “High gas prices force closure of two UK fertiliser plants.

    “Soaring gas prices have forced the closure of two fertiliser plants in the north of England in one of the first signs that a global supply crunch could force many energy-intensive industries to scale back activity this winter.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/b2e7b6ed-fa14-48e1-a463-4d3b09c654dd

  22. Oh dear, this is all that the world needs. China is emerging as an economic and geopolitical foil to USA hegemony. USA sides with Taiwanese independence as it can use Taiwan to initiate a world war, in the way that UK used Poland to initiate war against Germany to stave off rivals to the British Empire. It never worked for UK, which lost its Empire, but USA seems to be treading the same path. The old games have not changed.

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1234459.shtml

    > AUKUS to bring ‘nuclear-powered submarine fever’ across globe

    …. There used to be no grudges between China and Australia. Due to the geographical distance, there are no geopolitical conflicts between the two countries as well. However, by pursuing a one-sided policy tilting toward the US in the China-US strategic game, Australia has turned itself into an adversary of China. It is now escalating its confrontation with China by conducting nuclear-powered submarine patrols that are clearly targeted at China.

    However, no matter how Australia arms itself, it is still a running dog of the US. We advise Canberra not to think that it has the capability to intimidate China if it acquires nuclear-powered submarines and offensive missiles. If Australia dares to provoke China more blatantly because of that, or even find fault militarily, China will certainly punish it with no mercy.

    As Australia participates in the US-led strategic siege of China, it should remain self-aware and take a position that matches its strength. If it acts with bravado to show its allegiance to the US and takes the most prominent position in the US’ anti-China strategy, especially by being militarily assertive, then Canberra will most likely become a target of Beijing’s countermeasures to send a warning to others. Thus, Australians troops are also most likely to be the first batch of Western soldiers to waste their lives in the South China Sea.

    Recently, some in Canberra proposed an Australian missile defense system. We believe this is necessary. Because Canberra is intended to send troops to the Taiwan Straits if a war breaks out there. Australian Secretary of the Department of Home Affairs Mike Pezzullo in April warned that “drums of war” were beating in a message to his staff. He said that Australia must be prepared “to send off, yet again, our warriors to fight,” according to ABC News. Once the Australian army fights the People’s Liberation Army in the Taiwan Straits or the South China Sea, military targets in Australia will inevitably become a target hit by Chinese missiles. Since Australia has become an anti-China spearhead, the country should prepare for the worst.

    The US and its allies are messing up the world. They are even touching the bottom line of the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. Here comes an interesting question: Who is more capable of withstanding the global chaos? China or them?

    • Bei Dawei says:

      Worked for Poland, though.

      • In so far as Poland ended up under the USSR for 40 years, and eventually got independence in 1991. Russia invaded Poland from the east, at the same time, but UK declared war only on Germany and it allied with Russia a few years into the war.

        The idea was to weaken Germany as a potential imperial power, rather than anything about Poland itself. It did not really work out, UK lost its Empire and trashed its economy, while Germany modernised and overtook UK by the late 1950s. USA and USSR become the dominant world powers.

        Anyway…

        What do you suppose the costs for Taiwan would be if war were fought over it? Are you convinced that would be preferable to a return to China under some sort of arrangements? Are you confident that China would lose?

        Would you prefer the world to have a massive war over it, with all of the likely death and destruction that would entail? USA and UK are interested only in their own geopolitical power, but that will not necessarily work out well for Taiwan as the focus of conflict.

        • Bei Dawei says:

          “What do you suppose the costs for Taiwan would be if war were fought over it?” Depends on a lot of things. How the war was fought, etc. I’ll admit it doesn’t look good.

          “Are you convinced that would be preferable to a return to China under some sort of arrangements?” Yes. China can’t be trusted to keep any such agreements. (See Hong Kong, Tibet, etc.)

          “Are you confident that China would lose?” Not at all. They always win when the scenario is war-gamed.

          “Would you prefer the world to have a massive war over it, with all of the likely death and destruction that would entail?” Yes, because the destruction of China would allow for a better future.

          • > Yes. China can’t be trusted to keep any such agreements.

            > Yes, because the destruction of China would allow for a better future.

            > Not at all. They always win when the scenario is war-gamed.

            > I’ll admit it doesn’t look good.

            What a shame.

            But I suppose that I care about the Taiwanese about as much as you care about Australians or anyone else.

            It is what it is.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Destroying the western controlled machine shop floor seem a bit bonkers.

              Worst hit by nuking China would be Taiwan. Fallout plus “their” shop floor in ruins.

              Obviously pulverizing the big sticks of the PLA would be the only legitimate military goal while leaving the infrastructure and workforce intact.

          • Alex says:

            “Yes, because the destruction of China would allow for a better future.”

            I find it hard to imagine both a destructed China and any future at all.

    • I hope that the world knows what it is doing. NZ seem wise to keep well out it. Tit for tat is liable to spiral.

      https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9996989/China-threatens-sail-navy-Hawaiian-waters-Australia-announce-defence-pact.html

      > China threatens to sail its navy into Hawaiian waters as US and Australia announce defence pact – days after flotilla of four Chinese vessels sail past Alaska

      A guided-missile cruiser, guided-missile destroyer, general intelligence vessel, and an auxiliary vessel were spotted off the coast of Alaska’s Aleutian Islands during surveillance operations.

      *

      https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9997343/Boris-says-nuclear-AUKUS-submarine-pact-create-HUNDREDS-jobs.html

      Boris says nuclear submarine pact with Australia and US will create HUNDREDS of highly-paid jobs in the UK as he denies ‘adversarial’ stance against China – but ministers admit French are ‘understandably’ upset about losing contract

      Addressing MPs in the Commons, Boris Johnson denied that the alliance was an ‘adversarial’ move towards China – which has slammed it as evidence of a Cold War mentality’.

      *

      https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9995943/New-Zealands-Jacinda-Ardern-set-BAN-Australias-nuclear-submarines-alliance-UK.html

      > New Zealand will BAN Australia’s new nuclear-powered submarines from its waters, says Jacinda Ardern minutes after alliance with US and Britain is announced

      Jacinda Ardern made it clear the nuclear powered submarines to be built in Adelaide under Australia’s new defence partnership with the United States and Britain will are not welcome in New Zealand.

      • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
        Ed says:

        I have been trying to get NZ to go nuclear power with no luck. I feel like Joe I am beginning to loose my patience.

    • worldofhanumanotg
      worldofhanumanotg says:

      The Duran Greek(s) just ran great analysis on the topic.

      Firstly, China is mainly concerned as this will eventually spill over to Japan, the capacity of Australia to produce these vessels in volume is rather minimal.

      Secondly, and more importantly, the US knocked out France out of “done” multi-billion submarine deal with Australia, which was certainly leveraged further to domestic and int clients and other defense projects. The French are completely furious and calling it another Trafalgar moment. If the next elections flip to nationalist, the French turn into luke-warm alliance with Russia instead.

      Thirdly, this is bordering on non proliferation treaty brake down.

      In conclusion, the final reset of the legacy world order in terms of security arrangement and economy came closer again.

    • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
      Ed says:

      What does Oz look like after the first eight Chinese nukes destroy the eight largest cities?

      • worldofhanumanotg
        worldofhanumanotg says:

        This football runs on MIRVs aka single rocket with several mini nukes each able to reach different target (within some radius)..

        • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
          Ed says:

          Yes because one big bomb blowup a lot of dirt and air. Versus say eight smaller bombs each 1/8 the size blowup more objects located at the dirt/air boundary. N^(2/3) versus 8*((N/8)^2/3)

          We get twice the damage/death/destruction. So yes eight MRVs going against eight cities.

    • AUKUS represents a diminution of the Five Eyes coalition. It had become Four Eyes (sic) after NZ opted out of an extension of its mandate beyond intelligence sharing. Boris and Joe hoped to form CAUKUS but then Canada opted out too, leaving AUKUS (well awkward) aka Three Eyes or the Ajna Chakra. At this rate, Boris is headed for full on Cyclops mode.

      NZ and CA are clearly the gentler sort and AUKUS the ruffians, the gangbangers. Emigration can do that if it entails assortment. AUKUS is the new gang on the block – preferably someone else’s.

  23. Yorchichan says:

    The Detroit television station WXY-TV asked via Facebook for stories of unvaccinated people who had died of covid-19. Doubtless they wanted ammunition to scare the holdouts into getting the depop shot. They did not get the response they were hoping for:

    https://m.facebook.com/wxyzdetroit/photos/a.461583946134/10158207966696135/?type=3&source=57

    Tens of thousands of replies received so far, almost all telling of people injured or killed by the vaccines.

  24. Lastcall says:

    Tough times being an early Injector

    ‘Since the beginning of the vaccination campaign in the country, the irresponsible conduct and restraint of the government has intensified. The state has entered into an exclusivity agreement with Pfizer, a company that suffers from a problematic history of huge lawsuits filed against it, without any public deliberation and with lack of transparency, all the while the agreement that has been reached is presented to the public only partially. The vaccine is given to residents without getting their informed consent, without informing them of the risks, without transparently and openly informing them that they are participating in a major medical study in humans, and without obtaining their approval. Voices that dare to bring forward the potential risks of such a vaccine, a new technology that has not been adequately tested on humans and has only received emergency use approval, are blatantly silenced..’

    https://www.the-people-committee.com/english

    ‘A statistical analysis of data from the CBS combined with information from the ministry of health
    leads to the conclusion that the mortality rate amongst the vaccinated is estimated at 1:3000
    (1:18000 for ages 20-49, 1:5000 for ages 50-69, 1:1100 for ages 70+). According to this assessment, it is possible to estimate that the number of deaths in Israel, which have occurred in proximity after the vaccination, currently stands at about 1600-1700 people.’

    https://4a1b9d73-4c47-4f3b-bb08-e515be8958ca.filesusr.com/ugd/3db409_fe2169ea0ce643f0855453af968088ae.pdf

  25. MM says:

    Last year we had exponential rises in cases and deaths presented from people running simulations. Did not happen.
    What actually happened last year was several small spikes followed by sudden declines.
    What you should expect from “previous” epidemics is two waves in a period of 18 months and then we are done with it.

    What we actually see now is depicted in plain open in this short essay:
    https://www.theblogmire.com/brace-yourselves-for-the-perfect-storm/

    • Xabier says:

      The ‘waves’ in this ‘pandemic’ are, however, entirely the creation of governments and complicit modelers like Ferguson in the UK, and presented to us by corrupt media.

      They can, therefore, go on and on and on…….

    • Mike Roberts
      Mike Roberts says:

      Mmm. These kinds of stories never look at the full data. By the way, Delta is way more infectious than the original strain and most previous variants. That might have something to do with it. And, if using official numbers, why not look at the numbers about the difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated in terms of risk of serious disease and deaths.

      • Lastcall says:

        There is fool data, the material being pumped by the PTB and parroted by the sycophants.
        Then there is Full data; Full data is very hard to come by. But nature won’t be fooled, she will account in full.

      • Why not look at the numbers about the difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated in terms of risk of suffering adverse effects from the injections?

        What are your odds of catching SARS-CoV-2 and experiencing a severe to fatal case of COVID-19?

        What are your odds of suffering adverse effects from the “vaccines?”

        – Do you know that SARS-CoV-2 exists? Do you know it’s origin?

        – Do you know that COVID-19 exists and isn’t just influenza renamed?

        – Do you know that “vaccination” will prevent you from catching this SARS-CoV-2 and experiencing a severe to fatal case of COVID-19?

        – Do you know that “vaccination” will NOT result in your experiencing
        Antibody-dependent Enhancement (ADE)?

        – Do you know that an mRNA injection will not result in mRNA reverse transcription that subsequently alters and/or damages your DNA?

        – Do you know what genetic consequences, if any, will occur should you choose to father a child following receiving one or multiple COVID-19 “vaccine” injections?

        – Do you know what genetic consequences, if any, will occur should the mother of your child receive one or multiple COVID-19 “vaccine” injections prior to conception, during gestation, and/or during nursing?

        – Do you know what genetic consequences, if any, will occur when the next generation of human beings, born to the “vaccinated,” attempt to reproduce with one another?

        If one doesn’t know the answers to these questions, and has given them a fair amount of thought, one can either choose the path of inaction (i.e. not taking the “vaccine”) due to a current lack of knowledge or one can choose the path of action based on faith (i.e. taking the “vaccine”).

        Faith is always available and ready to step in whenever there are gaps in knowledge.

        I wonder, Mike, do you have faith that these “vaccines” will ultimately be a health boon to mankind?

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Everyone was “unvaccinated” in the summer of 2020. And the hospitalisations and deaths came down.

      Most people are “vaccinated” in the summer of 2021. And the hospitalisations and deaths have been going up.

      So it can’t be “unvaccination” that’s driving them up now, can it?

      Because it wasn’t “vaccination” that brought deaths down in 2020 then, was it?

      So it must be something else, mustn’t it?

      https://www.theblogmire.com/brace-yourselves-for-the-perfect-storm/

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I’m not qualified to answer what that something else is, although I think the likes of Nobel Prize Winner, Professor Luc Montagnier is, and he told us months ago of the potential dangers of vaccinating into a pandemic. Here’s his answer to whether such a thing should be done:

      “It’s unthinkable. They’re silent… many people know this, epidemiologists know it. It is the antibodies produced by the virus that enable an infection to become stronger. It’s what we call Antibody Dependent Enhancement, which means antibodies favor a certain infection.

      The antibody attaches to the virus, from that moment it has the receptors, the antibodies, we have them in the macrophage etc. It pokes the virus and not accidentally, but because of the fact that they’re linked to the antibodies. It is clear that the new variants are created by antibody-mediated selection due to the vaccination. OK?”

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Now this is great comedy …of course the CovIDIOTS’ response is — Must Get Booster … Must Get Booster…

      I spit in the face of CovIDIOTS… I have more respect for a cockroach… or a rat….

      https://twitter.com/i/status/1429894624005476353

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Israel’s Prime Minister is saying,

        “People who received two vaccine shots walk around feeling like they are protected… they don’t understand that the second vaccine has faded against the “Delta” – they must quickly get vaccinated with the 3rd dose!”.

        When I look at Israel’s seven day average new case rate (relative to population), it seems again to be the highest in the world (considering countries with 1 million or more in population. It is more than double the US and the UK rates, for example. In fact, the US and the UK rates are similar. Israel’s new high rate seems to be higher than any previous peak.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Recall that we were told that the vaccine would generate herd immunity and stop the spread of covid.

          How did they know that — well of course — it was THOROUGHLY TESTED.

          Now we are told it stops severe symptoms… yet the UK with 80% injected has 8000 in hospital vs 1000 a year ago (pre injection)…. Oh right it stops them for a little while.. we were also told that it was unlikely that there would be a need for boosters… then we were told that only the at risk people would need them … and it was THOROUGHLY TESTED…

          And now like hip grade 9 students invited to the in-crowd house party … they gleefully rush to the clinic for the 3rd injection … with waves more to follow….

          Muppets .. MOREons… CovIDIOTS… let’s put in a pot and boil off the excess… and what are you left with? High grade 100% pure … stoooopidity… if you scrape that scum off the bottom of the bottom and snort it your brain would explode….

          And people believe there are no Elders… that the smartest people on the planet… would let this.. this disgusting, pathetic, moronic rabble…. run the show….

          Come the f789 on hahahaahahahahahahaha…..

  26. Student says:

    Another research on Vitamin D effect in relation to Covid-19 incidence:

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34308537/

    • Student says:

      and here is an extract from the research: ‘Low serum vitamin D levels are statistically significantly associated with the risk of COVID-19 infection. Supplementation of vitamin D especially in the deficiency risk groups is indicated.’

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Another extract:

      Results: Thirteen studies providing data for 14,485 participants met the inclusion criteria. Mean vitamin D levels in SARS-CoV-2 negative patients was 17.7 ± 6.9 ng/mL compared to SARS-CoV-2 positive patients 14.1 ± 8.2 ng/mL

      These are dreadfully low levels for vitamin D. The “old” minimum level was 20. I think the new minimum is 30, or perhaps higher. People with dark skin tend to have very low levels of vitamin D.

      • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
        Ed says:

        Clif High recommends 90ng/ml. My friend Bill is at exactly that 90ng/ml. He take 10,000 IU each day.

  27. Fast Eddy says:

    Number One Rule for Moreons – No matter what that the facts dictate, never change your mind.

  28. Fast Eddy says:

    The fact that vaccine passports wouldn’t have a large effect on spread isn’t the only problem. If implemented carelessly, they could actually lead to more COVID deaths.

    How so?

    If vulnerable people (such as elderly persons for whom vaccines are less effective) are led to believe – wrongly – that the vaccines have strong efficacy against infection, they might take more risks than they otherwise would. For example, they might attend a large event, only to then become seriously ill with COVID-19.

    https://dailysceptic.org/2021/09/14/the-unintended-consequences-of-vaccine-passports/

    Well in that case…. let’s roll out the passports everywhere….

    dunc… norm… now is your opportunity to test ‘95%’…. can I buy you guys seats at some sporting events? Perhaps a Justin Bieber concert?

  29. Fast Eddy says:

    Let’s Force Feed the CovIDIOTS

    https://dailysceptic.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/VE-deaths-210913.jpg

    This shows that of 2,381 deaths in this period, 1,659 or 69.7%, more than two thirds, were in the double vaccinated. Six hundred deaths or 25.2% were in the unvaccinated. This is very different to the ONS statistics as quoted in the press that 99% of deaths were in those not double vaccinated. Yet no major media outlet compared or contrasted the ONS data with the PHE data released just days ago and asked why there was such a gaping discrepancy.

    In the over-50s, the PHE report showed that 1,621 of 2,222 deaths or 73% were in the double vaccinated compared to 499 or 22.5% in the unvaccinated. Once you take into account the proportions of the over-50s vaccinated and unvaccinated this works out at a vaccine effectiveness against death of 68.1% – respectable, but a far cry from the kind of claims being made by the ONS and parroted by the media.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This chart shows that the death rates by age group are a whole lot higher among the unvaccinated. Thus, the vaccines seem to be effective in preventing deaths from COVID.

      Of course, if better treatment had been provided to the unvaccinated, the results wouldn’t have been this bad. In fact, there might have been virtually no deaths at all.

      You are right that more than two-thirds are in the double vaccinated. But they are the ones most a risk.

      If the vaccine weren’t causing problems in three ways, I would have no objection to them:
      (a) Encouraging the virus to mutate, in ways that are more virulent
      (b) Causing harmful side effects to a minority of those receiving them, in the short term.
      (c) Unknown, perhaps severe, long term effects that likely get worse with multiple injections. (This may include ADE.)

      There is of course also the issue that the treatments being given to patients are mostly terrible, leading to the high death rates in the first place.

      • Tim Groves says:

        I would add a fourth way to that list:
        (d) Being forced on unwilling people through coercion, public shaming, lies and deception, misinformation, and threats of loss of livelihood and other basic human rights.

        Even if the shots were not dangerous or deadly or harmful to health, there would be no excuse for forcing them on the unwilling. The people doing the forcing have a lot to answer for, and I for one will rejoice any time I hear of one of these enforcers being forced to—how can I put it?— receive appropriate wages for their sin.

  30. Fast Eddy says:

    Oh… wow….

    I call on the CovIDIOTS to respond to this … click the link for all the charts and data and useless stuff that CovIDIOTS will dismiss….

    Why is the ONS Claiming Just 1% of Covid Deaths Are in the Vaccinated When PHE Data Shows the True Figure For August was 70%?

    https://dailysceptic.org/2021/09/14/why-is-the-ons-claiming-just-1-of-covid-deaths-are-in-the-vaccinated-when-phe-data-shows-the-true-figure-for-august-was-70/

  31. Fast Eddy says:

    Many HCWs who dutifully did what they were told have not fared well. An online survey of 1,245 HCWs published in April (“representing various parts of the country during the early phase of COVID-19 vaccination”) furnishes one particularly hair-raising glimpse of the potential risks — for both provider and patient.

    The study focused on roughly 800 HCWs (46% younger than age 41 and nearly all with doctoral, medical or Master’s degrees) who received the Pfizer vaccine and reported one or more symptoms. Almost all (93%) had received two doses.

    Post-vaccination, about one in eight HCWs “temporarily” had trouble performing activities of daily living. In addition, the survey results highlighted the following:

    Symptoms such as fatigue, headache, joint pain, nausea, muscle spasm, sweating, dizziness, flushing, brain fog, anorexia, sleep disruptions, tingling and palpitations were common.

    The principal neurological symptom reported was brain fog or “reduced mental clarity” — a disabling symptom that can scarcely be reassuring to the affected individuals’ patients.

    In the otolarnygological category, ear and eye symptoms predominated, included ear ringing, changes in hearing, ear/eye pain, blurred vision and “flashing lights.”

    Oddly, 6% of Pfizer recipients reported upbeat feelings of joy, relief or gratitude in response to receiving the injections. The researchers characterized this as a “positive sign” of HCW willingness to “[take] the challenge to end the deadly pandemic, irrespective of side effects experienced.”

    https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/covid-vaccine-mandates-health-care-system-workforce/

    normdunc – brain fog.

    I suppose these are the ones posting vaxxies on social media:

    Oddly, 6% of Pfizer recipients reported upbeat feelings of joy, relief or gratitude in response to receiving the injections. The researchers characterized this as a “positive sign” of HCW willingness to “[take] the challenge to end the deadly pandemic, irrespective of side effects experienced.”

    F789…ING…. FOOLS!!! ahhahahahahahhahaahhahahahahha the only good CovIDIOT… is a damaged CovIDIOT… a suffering CovIDIOT hahahahahaha

    Next time I see someone in a wheel chair steering with their teeth … I’ll say to M Fast… must have been Injected… hahahaha

  32. adonis says:

    who were the elders? I believe that this man was one of the elders and worked out a plan B for the human race which will keep things going for at least our lifetime watch the video and watch for when he states that the fundamentals would be in place by 2020 is what this “elder” preaching delusional or was their a realistic plan in store for humanity post 2020 for “the chosen ones”. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LsN-79jBwA

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This is a 16 minute video from 2014 with Maurice Strong, whom I have seen mentioned as one of the elders. I only watched a bit of it this time; I think that the video has been around with a different link for a long time. This one has only 70 views. Maurice Strong seems to think that binding CO2 rules will somehow save the planet, or rather humanity. The planet isn’t really at risk; it is humanity that is at risk.

      In my opinion, this kind of thinking has greatly influenced the IEA and its pronouncements. They don’t understand that the “resources” that seem to be available aren’t really available.

    • being a chosen one is all very well

      but what will happen to us unchosen ones?

      Will it be like school–when those hopeless at games (or disinterested, or both…ie me) were always unchosen

      Will the old excuse: “The dog ate my games kit sir” be enough for absolution at the end time?

      BTW–nobody ‘plans’ for humanity.

      How do we rid ourselves of that silly notion?

  33. Malcopian says:

    US, UK and Australia forge military alliance to counter China

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/15/australia-nuclear-powered-submarines-us-uk-security-partnership-aukus

    [The alliance is called AUKUS, after the initials of the countries. Good job they did it that way round, otherwise it could have looked like ‘You sucker!” – USUKA]

  34. Fast Eddy says:

    In 2010 the great Groningen Gas Field in the Netherlands’ had about 36 TCF of recoverable gas left in it. Its operated by NAM, or Shell and Exxon; as late as 2019 it was producing 19 BCM of gas per day on a much reduced rate.

    Draw down and re-pressurization of the field caused earthquakes to occur as early as 1994 and by the end of 2015 there had been 900 seismic events directly related to Groningen Gas Field, 254 of which were over 1.5 on the Richter Scale. In 2018 15 events occurred, several over 3,0 and in late 2019 a 3.6 occurred that broke grandma’s china in some homes. That was all she wrote for the Dutch, the field is now shut-in and is set to be decommissioned by the first of 2023, all that gas stranded.

    Natural gas in Europe is currently selling for $25 USD/MMBTU.

    We’re crammin’ so much stinking produced water into the Permian Basin West Texas it has had just about the same number of seismic events as the Netherlands, including three 3.0’s in the Midland Basin in the last year alone, a 3.5 just last week 15 miles NW of Midland. Water to oil ratios in the Delaware Basin are approaching 8 BW to 1 BO.

    The rig count in the Permian Basin is going up and within the past 12 months the Railroad Commission of Texas has issued over 850 new permits for SWD wells in the Permian.

    We don’t let no stinking earthquakes scare us, no sir. Texas is on a mission to drain all of our remaining oil reserves, first, to export to Asia, including China (who is going to now sell it back to us !!) and nothing is going to stop us !

    Stand back and watch.

    More https://www.oilystuffblog.com/single-post/irony-of-the-week?postId=79b01262-8be2-47dd-99af-f5746d7fd5aa

    https://static.wixstatic.com/media/62bf21_e3ec47e35a7c4d3cac071a83062ab7f0~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_696,h_727,al_c,q_90/62bf21_e3ec47e35a7c4d3cac071a83062ab7f0~mv2.webp

    And… it’s gone!

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Thanks for pointing this article out.

      I also notice a link in the oilystuffblog article to this article:

      https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/The-Remarkable-Rise-Of-US-LNG.html

      The Remarkable Rise Of U.S. LNG

      Total U.S. natural gas exports will continue to grow this year and next, exceeding the record of 14.4 Bcf/d from 2020. Combined U.S. exports of natural gas by pipeline and as LNG are set to average 18.3 Bcf/d in 2021 and 19.3 Bcf/d in 2022, the EIA said.

      At the same time, U.S. natural gas imports—almost all of which come from Canada into the Midwestern and western demand markets—are expected to rise by 6 percent annually to average 7.4 Bcf/d in 2021, but later decline to 6.9 Bcf/d next year.

      It is not that extraction will support this big increase, I don’t think. It is that the producers would really like a much higher natural gas price in the US. Another EIA article yesterday talked about the possibility of using more coal, assuming its price can also go higher, enabling more extraction.

  35. Neil Oliver is well known in the UK, he is an archaeologist and historian who has made many an excellent tv programme.

    He has been popping up over the last few weeks when I go to Youtube. He seems to be one of the few voices of reason re CV19 in the UK. I am not very familiar with GB News (a new but not very successful tv channel in the UK) or Neil’s role in the channel, but I get the impression that he does some sort of weekly review that lasts a few minutes, and they have all focused on CV19 and what a disaster it has been. What is really odd is that GB News has an audience of only a few 10s of thousands, allegedly, but this video on YT gets about 10 times that amount of views. And really, really odd, YT does not ban Neil’s videos.

    In this video, Neil comes across as well informed, re CV19, and willing to stick his head above the parapet. I wonder if he hangs out at OFW in his spare time. He starts of with the anniversary of 9/11, but links the dots and gets to CV19. He sees the writing on the wall.

    Neil Oliver: ‘If the West isn’t careful, it might shortly be all over for the West.’

    • Malcopian says:

      Fine sentiments, Neil, but two points.

      1] “English poet W. B. Yeats” he said. English?! He was Irish, of course.

      2] The Taliban did 9/11, Neil? Where the hell did they find the weapons for that? How did they know that the US military would be doing simulation exercises of a terrorist attack on 9/11, while the exact thing was happening in reality? The result was that the terrorists – whoever they REALLY were – due to that confusion, had the freedom of the skies for an hour and 50 minutes, when normally the US military would have shot them down in 8 minutes or slightly more. Where did that inside knowledge of the military’s training exercise on 9/11 come from? Meanwhile, Dubya sat in full view of the nation, reading ‘My pet goat’ to schoolchildren on TV, while the terrorists were zipping around in the sky. Had they wanted to, they could have taken out Dubya, with the schoolkids as collateral damage, given that his location had been broadcast on TV that morning.

      • Malcopian says:

        Historian Webster Tarpley Analyzes Bush’s Behavior on 911

      • Tim Groves says:

        That was the Taliban’s master stroke—not taking out Dubya!

        They—or whoever was behind them—knew that in order to win against the US, they had to take out all the competent US leaders and officials while leaving the incompetents in place. They understood that you should never interrupt your opponent when they are making an error. And as we can all see, the strategy ha worked brilliantly.

        • Malcopian says:

          I believe you’re way off the beaten track. Dubya was incompetent, but Cheney and Rumsfeld were able to use him as a sock-puppet. Their aim, to re-establish US hegemony in Iraq and destabilise and weaken the Arabs (but NOT their ally Saudi) and Muslimics in order to make the Israelis more secure, and also to dominate the oil market, at a time when ‘peak oil’ was a top meme. Did you never see Wesley Clark explaining how the order was to ‘take down seven countries”, 11 days after 9/11? Because 9/11 was a false flag. Now the neo-cons had their “new Pearl Harbor”, their excuse to invade the Middle East, as openly revealed in their Project for the New American Century (2000).

          That the Americans eventually kokked up is no surprise, of course, but Saddam, bin Laden and al Qaeda were just patsies at the time – the ‘evil baddies’ that the public were instructed to hate (by the neo-cons and Tony Blair) and who were the *ostensible* cause for the neo-cons’ wars.

  36. Fast Eddy says:

    Fast Eddy walks solemnly to the pulpit…. reads from his notes… looks at norm – dunc – mike…. smirks… but says nothing … then turns… and walks away….

    British doctors now openly beg for more lockdowns because they say they can’t rely on vaccines

    This new piece from Reuters – hardly a outpost of anti-vax fanaticism – should terrify vaccine advocates.

    And, honestly, scare the rest of us.

    A reminder: Britain has pursued a mass vaccination strategy as aggressively as any country. It approved Pfizer’s vaccine even before the FDA. More than 80% of Britons over 16 are now fully vaccinated.

    But Britain is in far worse shape than it was at this time last year, when no one was vaccinated. It is now averaging about 140 deaths a day, roughly 10 times as many as mid-September 2020. And hospitalizations and deaths continue to rise.

    Read More https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=98

    https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6bbf18f-3070-41f4-9762-0fc1eba11186_750x474.jpeg

    https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F075d3957-c0d8-4267-8039-118bc8b0a63e_750x1334.png

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This article seems to be from here:
      https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/the-most-damning-article-about-vaccines

      I didn’t find the Reuter’s article.

      • Mike Roberts
        Mike Roberts says:

        Those scary figures hide the underlying details. I found this data (which happened to be from this article):

        Under 18: 438 hospital admissions – 404 unvaccinated people – 92 percent
        18 to 29: 584 hospital admissions – 387 unvaccinated people – 66 percent
        30 to 39: 733 hospital admissions – 516 unvaccinated people – 70 percent
        40 to 49: 783 hospital admissions – 497 unvaccinated people – 63 percent
        50 to 59: 877 hospital admissions – 421 unvaccinated people – 48 percent
        60 to 69: 946 hospital admissions – 328 unvaccinated people – 35 percent
        70 to 79: 1,098 hospital admissions – 194 unvaccinated people – 18 percent
        80+: 1,146 hospital admissions – 144 unvaccinated people – 13 percent.

        Note that though the percentages of older people don’t seem great, one has to factor in vaccination rates in those age groups. A graph elsewhere in the article shows, for example, that unvaccinated 80+ year-olds are three times as likely to be hospitalised as the vaccinated of that group. All age groups show much higher rates of hospitalisation in the unvaccinated.

        • Student says:

          (I mean the Reuters article)

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Thanks!

        • Fast Eddy says:

          But while 81.3% of people over 16 have received two vaccine doses, there are currently 8,340 COVID-19 patients in hospital in Britain, compared to just 1,066 a year ago.

          Strange… I though the hospitals were nearly collapsing a year ago….

    • Mike Roberts
      Mike Roberts says:

      As I’ve mentioned before, only 1.5% of Covid deaths in the UK, since January this year, are of vaccinated people.

    • ” More than 80% of Britons over 16 are now fully vaccinated.”

      I was worried for quite some time that my teenage daughter (16) thought I was a nut job, which is true no doubt about it, but my point is she did not believe a word I said about sars-cov-2 / CV19. A couple of weeks ago she got her invitation via snail mail to receive her vaxx / gene therapy shot. Like my own invitation – hers contained contact details if you could not make the appointment and wanted to set new date, but no follow-up contact details if you wanted to not attend. My daughter has assured me that she will not attend said appointment. I suspect that in fact much to my surprise, she might have been listening to me. A few weeks ago, she mentioned to me seeing social media posts about women / girls who had serious menstrual problems after receiving the vaxx. I think that did it for her.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        There are more than enough double and now triple jabbed CovIDIOTS to complete the CEP.

        We just have to wait a little longer… as we can see though … Israel got hit first…. UK is getting slammed now … I see Canada is now offering the booster — but only to the ‘at risk’

        Remember how Israel did the same but then offered the booster to everyone…

        Israel is getting ready for jab 4 so it does seem that those little critters evolve even faster with each jab…

        I suspect jab 4 or perhaps 5 will be The One … to Unleash the Nightmare Scenario….

      • adonis says:

        my daughter on the other hand got jabbed even though i told her they were bad news comes back to me after the first jab a couple of weeks later complains of extremely heavy periods and blames it on my genes.guess what she does for a living works in the hospital in a laboratory planning to eventually be a doctor., she unfortunately has been brainwashed like all the other ploughhorses.

        • Mike Roberts
          Mike Roberts says:

          You don’t think much of your daughter’s ability to think. My daughter is resisting the jab and I don’t force my view on her but continually ask her to check all information, not just what is on blogs.

          • nikoB says:

            Getting the jab as a teenager specifically shows an inability to think about long term consequences. The one thing that can not be rushed in these experiments is time. We are only 10 months or so into an experiment that goes for 120 months. Anyone who says they know the outcome of that and can offer certainities regarding that is either stewpid, a li-ar or both.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I think mike should just force it — don’t you?

              And if she gives in to his gentle bullying and she’s left with a busted body… she can never forgive daddy…. that would be hilarious!

              There can be a price to pay for being a MOREON.

          • Xabier says:

            Unlike you, Mike, your daughter seems to have innate common sense.

            You should be pleased, and ought to support it.

            On times like these, intuition is also a valuable protection against devious malefactors.

            Most of the qualified people with integrity are posting on blogs and Twitter, etc, -which you disparage – because that is the corner they have been forced into by the propaganda and the policy of the MSM not to give any voice to rational critics of the mass-injection policy.

            • Mike Roberts
              Mike Roberts says:

              Xabier, I’ll ignore your insult. I’m suprised anyone can support a position they don’t agree with but I can support an independent mind. However, if the sort of information presented by many commenters here, is anything to go by, people can be easily misled by cherry picked data and dubious logic.

              To claim that “most” of the qualified people with integrity are posting on blogs you like is just plain nonsense. And also an insult to those who aren’t.

              Sadly, “the MSM” has become the enemy for a few vocal people. Not all MSM see everything the same and not all MSM stick to the same line for years. Not all MSM publish only lies. It’s about making judgements on the information after due diligence (where that information is important). Many here just repeat anything that supports their views, without critical thought.

            • mike—you used the word ‘resist”

              unfortunately that can be intrepreted a dozen ways depending on context

              in here, you can guarantee the worst interpretation

              ah–she ‘resisted’–thus she was obviously being dragged in off the street, kicking and screaming, into the local clinic by a couple of heavies.

              when in fact ‘resisting’ meant she decided not to get vaxxed

            • Fast Eddy says:

              IN a sentence – norm said “Women resist me so I have a collection of blow up dolls instead’

            • eddy, your constant reference to my inflatable companion can only mean that you want one yourself, but are too shy to ask me about it directly.

              no need to be.

              these days its hard to distinguish one from the real thing, provided you go to a reputable manufacturer. In fact, many of the bimbos you envy with people you see around locally, are very likely to be robots.

              would you like me to send you the link to their website?

              I can certainly give you a few tips, not to make mistakes i did with my first purchase.

              Don’t do what i did, order a super sport model set to nymphomania mode—almost killed me until i got used to her. You get no rest unless she’s charging her batteries–and even then they are set to rapid charge.
              You might not be able to handle one like that
              Rather like passing your test in a Ford, then rushing out and buying a Ferrari. Not good.

              Your choice of course., but I suggest the ‘domestic’ model instead.

              That way your ‘fast eddy’ reputation will be better suited to her requirements

            • Fast Eddy says:

              you are a pathetic old man… you really are

            • the best reply you can manage?

              why am i not surprised

            • Fast Eddy says:

              hey norm… babies will soon be eligible for Pfizer…. https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=100

            • Fast Eddy says:

              And the dog barks…. again… woof woof goes the dog.

              Delete

              Why would anyone attempt to argue with a fool?

          • Tim Groves says:

            Your daughter is RESISTING the jab?

            Interesting choice of verb.

            In order to resist something, one must be being pressurized into accepting it. The fact that she is being subject to pressure at all in what should be a personal choice is intolerable.

            You should be appalled and outraged that your daughter is being placed in a situation in which she feels the need to resist what is essentially an assault on her body should be setting off alarms somewhere in you.

            What kind of a father are you if you can’t support your daughter in her resistance and come to her aid in this situation?

          • Slow Paul says:

            I guess teenagers like to rebel against their parents. It could be a strategy to tell them the OPPOSITE of what you want them to think and do.

            I did the double jab since I work in health care and don’t want people making a fuzz. I think they are good for nothing but they are not a death sentence either. I even did a jab on one of my patients today, let’s see if he’s still alive when I clock in tomorrow…

        • Fast Eddy says:

          The beasts are so trusting of the master…. the master feeds the beast poison … the beast says thank you and begs for more…

          Master never hurt the beast… never

          • Tim Groves says:

            If the situation dictates, a good master has to be prepared to lead his tired old incontinent sheepdog to the woodshed and let loose with the shotgun.

            Although I, being squeamish, would avoid the shotgun and instead go heavy on the valerian. Better for fido.

  37. Fast Eddy says:

    It’s time for … Laugh of the Day!

    Apparently she’s got enough function remaining to be able to login to her FB account and removing the vaxxie of herself smiling like a MOREON.

    Oh and if she tries to replace it with one of her wrecked body… she’ll be banned from FB 🙂

    https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/sarah-green-16-year-old-neurological-symptoms-pfizer-vaccine/

    • Rodster says:

      I love how the doctors got defensive once the mother mentioned the vaccine. Too bad for them, they can’t even sue Pfizer.

      • Xabier says:

        Poor girl, tempted by the doughnuts!

        The diagnosis of ‘Not the vaccine, just a nervous tick’ was the first response here when many women reported severe menstrual problems following vaccination.

        Now the line is ‘Yes, we admit it happens, but it’s not serious’.

        Get injected, shut up and go away to quiver, and preferably die, in a corner seems to be the new Hippocratic Oath, does it not?

        • Rodster says:

          “Get injected, shut up and go away to quiver, and preferably die, in a corner seems to be the new Hippocratic Oath, does it not?”

          Sure if you are Josef Mengele, the Angel of Death

        • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
          Ed says:

          The medical profession has cast its lot. They serve satan.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Is it ok to respond to ‘have you had the jab yet’ with no — I am waiting for the free donut offer in NZ…………………… you know – in the US they get free donuts……… I’m waiting for that… or a pie… I’ll settle for a pie…

  38. Sam says:

    China has proven that $70 for oil is too high for them and is scrambling to keep the prices down. The markets will still need quantities but low prices as well and I think it’s going to have to go up like natural gas. How long it can stay up is probably a short time

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I know that China is having problems. Why are you ascribing the problems to high oil price? Aren’t they likely just as much related to high coal price. We saw this article a day or two ago:

      https://www.maritime-executive.com/editorials/china-s-ban-on-australian-coal-reshapes-key-dry-bulk-market
      China’s Ban on Australian Coal Reshapes Key Dry Bulk Market

  39. Uncle Andy will now be served his papers for charges of repeated child r/pe and battery. The UK High Court has agreed to serve him, unless he takes the papers more directly, as it is obliged to do under the Hague Service Convention of 1970.

    The ‘prince’ will now be obliged to appear before the NY court and a default judgement may be issued against him if he absconds. The court is to reconvene before Judge Kaplan on October 13.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9993513/High-Court-London-accepts-request-Virginia-Giuffres-lawyers.html

    > Prince Andrew WILL be served court papers in Virginia Roberts rape case after High Court backs request by his accuser’s US lawyers – meaning royal could face having to give evidence in court

    The High Court in London has accepted a request by Virginia Giuffre’s legal team to formally contact Andrew (pictured at Balmoral today) about the civil proceedings launched in America, after first rejecting it citing a technicality.

    Last week, Roberts’ legal team said it had tried to serve papers to the Queen’s son by leaving the documents with a police officer at his home in southern England, in addition to sending them by Royal Mail. However, despite Andrew being represented in court, his team have argued he has not yet been properly served so the case cannot progress.

    In response, Ms Roberts’ legal team used the Hague Service Convention, a treaty governing requests between nations for evidence in civil cases, to ask the High Court to formally notify Andrew about her action. After earlier highlighting an issue with the application, the High Court today said it has now been accepted. This means the court will serve Andrew the papers itself if Ms Roberts’ lawyers are unable to themselves.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I notice that this comment did not get automatically dumped into moderation.

    • It seems that it is possible for the NY court to enforce the judgement through the UK courts. It has been estimated that ‘Prince’ Andrew would be liable for costs up to 100 M.

      https://www.penningtonslaw.com/news-publications/latest-news/2019/transatlantic-litigation-enforcing-us-judgments-in-england-and-wales

      > Transatlantic Litigation: Enforcing US Judgments in England and Wales

      …. Enforcement in England

      Due to the absence of a reciprocal enforcement agreement, a US judgment can only be enforced in England at common law by bringing a new action under which the judgment is seen as a simple contractual debt. New proceedings are therefore issued in the English court for payment of the “debt”.

      For the court to consider enforcing the debt, it must be satisfied of six elements. The burden of proving that one of these elements has not been satisfied is on the party resisting the enforcement proceedings (ie the judgment debtor)….

      • “It seems that it is possible for the NY court to enforce the judgement through the UK courts”

        The actions against Julian Assange have set the precedent. No-one is safe from USA courts, not in the UK anyway.

  40. Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
    Ed says:

    This is a test of wp

    On fb I got suspended for 24 for saying:

    If the head of the military is found guilty of treason he should be hung by the neck until dead.

    fb feels this is inciting violence

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      WP doesn’t seem to have a problem with it. But your account is not linked to a Twitter account, the way Mirror’s is.

    • worldofhanumanotg
      worldofhanumanotg says:

      Ed> what fired you up the most though? That China call? Or the more important back story that the army pre-positioned itself to block Orange Jesus from contesting the election fraud, i.e. they must had been most likely INTEGRAL part to the election fraud in itself in the beginning? Well, the cadence of news coming from US politics is white hot in just past two-three days sure enough..

      Perhaps that’s just “6D chess” manifestation of factions infighting, and the boyz club wanting to reinstall T. reasserted new coalition, aka projects like closing the borders and bringing back some manuf base taken new time priority because of some factor (PO-Surplus/China strength?)..

      • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
        Ed says:

        Gail, I have never figured out twitter and at this point do not want to.

        World, the fact that the head of the military, Milley, committed a coup against the people, the nation, and his commanding officer has me in a fit. He cut the president off from command of the military!!!! It does not get worse than this. I fully understand there is no longer any rule of law in the US. It is all bought and/or black mailed by the CCP. So, I expect no action against the alleged traitor.

        I am also surprised there appears to be no republican party.

        As to tman he surrounded him self with his enemies while in office and they spent their time stabbing him in the back again and again. He does not appear to be effective. Close borders would be nice. Have manufacturing would be nice. But I believe we are well into collapse. I think it is too late to make any difference.

        I believe in 2025 we will see some of what is being planned and that by 2030 we will see more. I expect we will never see all of it. I think Margaret and I have a fair chance to make it to 2030.

        I have not yet seen any massive die-off and am skeptical.

        Cheers.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          The president is not in command of jack shit… he and the politicians rubber stamp decisions made by the Elder and their deep state minions….

          This story is a farce… just more deflection to distract the Cattle from the opening of the abattoir doors…

          • Artleads says:

            Ah, the abattoir. Another name for it could be the hospital. Had an MRI today, and the straps to secure your arms were not too tight to struggle them out of (with much effort), but I could see us getting use to gradually tighter belts on gurneys–bad form to complain–and being painlessly put away. I didn’t try, but doubt I could have gotten out of the “bed” by myself. Everything depended on efficiency, clean floors, air conditioning. They’re hiring HUGE ex-military(?) nurses(?) to instruct you in the constantly changing procedures. The tech people are still young women.

            • Tim Groves says:

              Sounds frightening ro anyone with an imagination! I think these days some abattoirs in the west have some advantages over some hospitals. At least they play Mozart and stun their victims with an electric shock prior to getting down to business. Whereas in Cuomo’s NY and elsewhere, patients who coughed faced ordeal by intubation and ventilation.

          • worldofhanumanotg
            worldofhanumanotg says:

            Hm, the story is not a farce (rather intentional leak opening salvo of counter coup with the Afghan debacle as convenient launchpad), actually as of 15/9/[21] evening news cycle the line of inquiry shifted further in the direction I analysed-predicted yesterday. Now, it’s moving up on the trail about possible coup by that fatty soldier and his ice cream master witch of Cali and that eventually leads to election fraud, big tech sponsorship, and the feudal digital gulag-world of the future.

            Obviously, it won’t be likely explored to the utmost bottom (nor all policies reversed or stakeholders revealed), at best one faction kicks out the other. I’m fine with that, although “lesser evil” is still both lesser and evil..

    • Tim Groves says:

      Milley doesn’t have a neck. Perhaps he should be hung by some other appendage?

      • worldofhanumanotg
        worldofhanumanotg says:

        The author Bob Woodward (Watergate) was always a naval intel conduit, you see for them somebody like *now obese former paratrooper M.boy (hoisted up during the Kenyan yrs) will be always beneath contempt as a stumbling halfwit in the informal hierarchy. The new book stands on its own merits obviously, the gravity of the allegations (and hinted confirmation of election coup) is gigantic, but there is that as well.. And as mentioned before what does it mean – it’s not difficult to figure it out, there is clearly a faction pulling hand brake on the WEFers taking over the US completely and or pushing at least for different terms of the contract forward..


        * even the fit Northerly Kim version nowadays looks like a playboy comparatively speaking..

  41. JMS says:

    Don’t know if it has already been posted here, and maybe it’s a bit useless, since by now everyone here has already made up their minds on the subject, but i find this is a very enlightening and detailed presentation about the utter insanity of allowing yourself to be injected with the experimental pseudo-vaccines.

    https://videopress.com/v/p8R7ebPy

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Very good 16 minute long mostly cartoon video explaining the major issues with the so-called COVID vaccines.

      Do you have any idea who put this out? It seems to be quite recent.

  42. Gail, nearly all of my posts for weeks have been going into moderation. Is there anything that you could do about it? You approve all of them anyway, but it does slow things down.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I looked and I can’t see anything that I can change that would fix this.

      Because of copyright laws, normally a person doesn’t want to copy more than four or five paragraphs from something from another source. If the item from elsewhere is short, the amount copied needs to be shorter yet. But I don’t know that that by itself would trigger moderation.

      Having more than five links will trigger moderation.

      • OK, I may just have to cope with it.

        I suspect that is none of the issues that you mentioned. It seemed to begin immediately after I linked to a certain twitter account. That may have automatically activated state censorship in league with Word Press. If so, then it is what it is – I will cope. : )

        • Tim Groves says:

          I tend to end up in moderation if I make long posts, use naughty words, or add more than two links. But apart from that, the Word Press stormtroopers usually wave me through, saying “these aren’t the comments you’re looking for; he can go about his business; move along…”

          • Naughty words like – ‘latest opinion poll’, ‘independence’, ‘Scottish National Party’, ‘Nicola said’, ‘freedom’…

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              I can’t imagine that any of them are a problem.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Fast Eddy has Diplomatic Immunity from copywrite BS… HE can post the entire article on HU…. kinda like how you cannot sue Pfizer if your brain ossifies after the jab (norm knows that all too well)

    • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
      Ed says:

      I find any post that is more than four sentences is long and takes many hours to be posted.

      I believe the word cl/ss may be a trigger

  43. “U.K. Energy Crisis Deepens as Fire Knocks Out Key Cable… a fire shut down a major cable bringing power from France, adding to the risk of economic disruption as Britain heads into winter.

    “Gas and power prices jumped as the U.K. grid operator said the cable will be out for at least a month.. The timing couldn’t be worse: Britain is already struggling with shortages, with gas and power prices breaking records day after day.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-15/u-k-energy-crisis-deepens-as-fire-knocks-out-a-key-power-cable

    • “Why Europe fears a gas crunch even before winter demand begins…

      “Europe has …been phasing out coal plants in recent years, limiting the opportunity to switch fuels when prices rise. Record carbon prices have also made fuel swaps less attractive because coal emits more carbon dioxide when burnt…

      “The UK is arguably more exposed than the rest of Europe. The country has won plaudits for its sharp reduction in emissions over the past decade — but this was achieved by boosting renewables capacity and supplanting coal with natural gas, particularly during periods of low wind speeds.

      “The UK also in effect operates a “just-in-time” approach to gas supplies. While it has more domestic production than countries in the EU, it also has far less storage capacity.”

      https://www.ft.com/content/7c31ca15-aa4f-4a32-bb90-ebc1341ed374

    • UK is stopping using coal for electricity generation as part of plans to become carbon neutral.

      https://www.gov.uk/government/news/end-to-coal-power-brought-forward-to-october-2024

      > End to coal power brought forward to October 2024

      From 1 October 2024 Great Britain will no longer use coal to generate electricity, a year earlier than planned, Energy and Climate Change Minister Anne-Marie Trevelyan announced today (Wednesday 30 June 2021).

      The move is part of ambitious government commitments to transition away from fossil fuels and decarbonise the power sector in order to eliminate contributions to climate change by 2050. Today’s announcement confirms the intention set out by the Prime Minister last year to bring forward the deadline to end unabated coal-fired electricity generation.

      …. Coal is one of the most carbon intensive fossil fuels and responsible for harmful air pollution. By eliminating its use in electricity generation, the UK can make sure it plays a critical role in limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees – a key aim of its COP26 presidency.

      The UK has made huge progress in reducing the use of coal across the power sector, with coal accounting for only 1.8% of the UK’s electricity mix in 2020, compared with 40% almost decade ago.

      …. As one of the first countries to commit to ending coal power combined with its significant success in driving up renewables, the UK is leading the world in moving away from fossil fuels and significantly decarbonising its energy system.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        I think we have hit peak coal. Trying to import what the UK would need to operate coal-fired power plants wouldn’t work by 2024. The coal wouldn’t be available, or would be too expensive. But it is more politically correct to explain the issue as an attempt climate change.

        • Erdles says:

          Peak coal? The UK is sitting on 46Billion tons of accessible coal. That’s enough for 300 years.

          • You do realise that there is a difference between coal that exists (or any other resource) and coal that is economically viable to extract? You seem to be suggesting that the 46 B tonnes of coal are economically viable. So why is the UK not one of the largest exporters of coal in the world, when in fact it imports the large majority of its coal requirements – not a lot these days?

          • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
            Gail Tverberg says:

            I agree very much with Minority of One.

            If there really were lots of accessible cheap-to-extract coal in the UK, there is no doubt that companies would be working on extracting it. The UK certainly wouldn’t be importing coal from elsewhere.

            There are an amazing number of people who seem to believe that the coal under the North Sea is “easily accessible.” It isn’t. There is a 99.999% chance that it will permanently remain under the North Sea. But forecasts of future global warming are made as if it could actually be extracted.

            You have lots of company, believing that the UK has a huge amount of accessible coal. It is just that there is no way the price could ever rise high enough to make it profitable for anyone to extract it.

            • Trousers says:

              There was a reason for the miners strike in the early 80s. Thatcher wanted to close uncompetitive mines. Within a decade they were almost all shut. It is practically impossible to reopen those pits now.

              Interestingly though, in the last few weeks the UK has been forced to fire up old coal fired powerstations at Drax, Burton and Ratcliffe in Nottinghamshire. That most certainly wasn’t on the agenda!

            • Mike Roberts
              Mike Roberts says:

              Absolutely right about that coal being left there. With the UK production almost non-existent, compared with the quantities mined at its peak, I doubt whether any carbon forecasts assume that production will increase.

            • Tim Groves says:

              Back in 1984, Arthur Scargil warned that the UK was closing down the coal industry despite having lots of cheap deep mined coal available.

              I’m impressed at how reasonable and how calm and collected Scargil was in this interview. Nothing like his Spitting Image puppet.

            • Trousers – ” in the last few weeks the UK has been forced to fire up old coal fired powerstations at Drax, Burton and Ratcliffe in Nottinghamshire.”

              V. Interesting. This I presume is related to the shortage of natural gas. Do you have any links?

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I am thinking … it takes a lack of something to make a statement that the UK has loads of accessible coal….. and yet they import the vast majority of coal they burn…

              I can’t quite put my finger on what that something is…. but I think it starts with M….

    • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement

      The Paris Agreement (French: Accord de Paris), often referred to as the Paris Accords or the Paris Climate Accords, is an international treaty on climate change, adopted in 2015. It covers climate change mitigation, adaptation, and finance. The Agreement was negotiated by 196 parties at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference near Paris, France.

      …. Emissions should be reduced as soon as possible and reach net-zero in the second half of the 21st century.

      …. The Paris Agreement has been successfully used in climate litigation forcing countries and an oil company to strengthen climate action.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        I think that the Paris Agreement in 2015 was mostly cover for the low price limits we are reaching with respect to fossil fuels. It gives countries an excuse to subsidize “Green Energy” and provide a supposed way out of the predicament we are in.

        https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/World-oil-prices-fell-in-2014-makes-producers-unprofitable-cuts-taxes-paid.png

        There are always many reasons for any given action. This was an agreement that could help many different groups at once. Higher education now had more excuse to focus on Green Energy and the opportunities it would provide, for example. Oil companies could now add areas that focused on subsidized hydrogen or other things that supposedly work.

        • It seems unlikely that global institutions would come right out and say, ‘You know what, the age of fossil fuels is coming to an end due to issues of profitability. And renewables seem like a long shot, to be honest.’

          That would only cause panic and hasten the collapse of the global economy, which relies on ‘confidence’ for investment. It would be totally irresponsible. As you say, it makes more sense, and it is entirely more responsible, to deliver a narrative that ‘orientates’ the global economy to chug on for a bit longer.

          ‘We are shifting to green energy, fossil fuels are being wound down for moral reasons, so let’s all get on board with renewables, which are quite feasible given the application.’

          If the end result is that renewables prove inadequate to avoid global collapse, as all indications are, then nothing has been lost through the adoption of that narrative. The fossil fuel economy would have ended anyway, and ‘confidence’ has kept the show on the road for a bit longer. Indeed new activities are functional in the meantime.

          So, your interpretation of the ‘green shift’ is entirely congruent with how a person might anticipate responsible institutions to act in such a scenario. One really would not expect them to act otherwise.

          In any case, the problem of waning fossil fuels is what it is, and it is not going away, whatever narrative global institutions choose to push, and whatever reasons they have for pushing them – be it prudence or genuine and outright delusion about renewables. In the end, it does not really matter.

        • In fact, a person might expect the IEA of all institutions to have a realistic assessment of the likely viability of renewables – so it does seem more likely that they are pushing the renewables narrative for the sake of prudence rather than out of delusion.

          *

          My gripe with the narrative would be that it prolongs industrial civilisation with all of its destructiveness – like housebuilding in UK for the sake of labour expansion to keep the decrepit capitalist economy going for a bit longer. But IC was always destructive, and that never proved a decisive argument against it.

          Then, the ‘green shift’ narrative is actually prolonging and extending the environmental damage – which smacks of cynicism, but it may be ‘prudent’ nevertheless if it delays a mass population collapse. It is pros and cons, and the pros of IC have tended to outweigh its cons in decision-making.

          A person might have preferred it had IEA been honest, and then societies could have done what they could with the time that remains to prepare for post-IC conditions – but that is probably an unrealistic scenario. Societies likely would have broken down, pretty much immediately, along with the global economy.

          In any case, it is what it is, and no global institutions are waiting for my ‘sign off’ on their strategies and narratives. : )

          • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
            Gail Tverberg says:

            The IEA seems to be run by economists. I wouldn’t count on what they are saying to have any sense to it at all.

            At one point, I heard that the origin of the absurd accessible fossil fuel estimates that were provided to the IPCC was the IEA.

            The IEA is part of the OECD organization. In fact, their headquarters are (or at least were, at one time, when I checked) in the OECD building. The OECD is the organization that was set up to counter OPEC. It is a political organization, just as OPEC is.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Operating an electricity system without redundancy is flirting with major problems.

      If an electricity system has wind and or solar as part of the mix, it needs lots of redundancy.

      If an electricity system has imported electricity as part of its mix, it needs lots of redundancy.

      Somehow, this situation reminds me of California depending on Washington State for electricity imports. Thus usually works, but for a time (hot weather) it was unavailable.

      Or this reminds me of the fire in the semiconductor plant in Japan. If there had been redundancy in semiconductor supply situation, it would have been a non-event.

      • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
        Ed says:

        Yes, every electrical system can benefit from redundancy.

        With intermittent sources like wind and solar we need to calculate how often electrical will not be available and customers will be without. This is a reality of an affordable system. Critical customers like hospitals can install generators and fuel tanks. The IBM site near by had a two million gallon storage tank not having reliable service from the public electric company.

        At home I have a backup propane heater so when the electric is out in deep winter and the electric controlled oil furnace does not work to keep the pipes from freezing.

  44. “China Goes Cold Turkey on Property… Weak economic data show just how complicated any transition away from real estate could be…

    “Land sales by value fell 90% year over year in the first 12 days of September, according to Nomura.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-goes-cold-turkey-on-property-11631709955

    • “‘Blood-and-sweat money’: Evergrande anger boils on Chinese social media…

      “Videos of protestors bearing furious signs filled the popular Weibo and WeChat platforms this week, with homebuyers using social media to share information and organise future demonstrations…

      “photos of a crowd of people in southwest Chengdu holding signs that read “Evergrande Fraud”, verified by AFP, were shared widely on… Weibo…

      “While state media has mostly stayed quiet on the crisis, smaller news companies and provincial TV have highlighted the discontent, interviewing ordinary people who risk losing their life savings.”

      https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210915-blood-and-sweat-money-evergrande-anger-boils-on-chinese-social-media

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This is likely to be a big mess. I notice the article says:

      Land sales are a key source of local government revenue, while developers who levered up to buy expensive land will be left holding the bag, adding further strain to their overstretched balance sheets.

      Local governments have been able to avoid taxing citizens much (or perhaps, at all) because the sale real estate that was previously used for agriculture, which is now being used for homes, has been a very major source of income. (Previously, all of the land was the government’s land.)

      If developers like Evergrande borrowed money to purchase expensive property, that provides another way that the default on the debt might occur. If there aren’t people who can afford the expensive homes on the land, the property developers will default on their debt.

  45. kulmthestatusquo
    kulmthestatusquo says:

    @Dennis, regarding Out of Africa

    The Somalis were smart enough to realize that if they kicked out the whites, they would be overwhelmed by the more numerous Kikuyus and everything they took would be stolen , and they themselves would be slaughtered, anyways.

    That’s why colonial powers always use other peoples who have nothing to do with the location to do the dirty work. The French put Vietnamese policemen in Algeria. The Brits often used the Irish to do the dirty work in India, like Rudyard Kipling’s book “Kim” where the Irish soldier of fortune is last seen in some river in Tibet.

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