The Afghanistan Fiasco (and Today’s High Level of Conflict) Reflect an Energy Problem

There is a saying, “Everything happens for a reason.” The fiasco in Afghanistan is no exception to this rule. Even though it is not obvious, the United States is up against energy limits. It needed to pull back from Afghanistan to try to have enough energy to continue in its other roles, such as providing benefits for its growing army of retirees, and building infrastructure to mitigate the COVID-19 downturn.

The fundamental problem is that governments can add debt and other indirect promises of resources that create goods and services, but they cannot actually create the low-cost energy, water and mineral resources needed to fulfill those promises.

The way energy limits play out is not at all intuitive. Most people assume that we will run out of oil, leading to a spike in oil prices. We will then transition to renewables. As I see it, this understanding is completely wrong. Limited energy supply first leads to a need for simplification: Stepping back from Afghanistan would be one such type of simplification. It would save energy supplies and reduce the need for greater tax revenue or added debt.

In this post, I will try to explain some pieces of the problem.

[1] Afghanistan was, and continues to be, in some sense, a “handicapped country.”

Everyone knows that the way a country can succeed in the world market is by providing needed goods or services to other economies at low cost. Afghanistan is a landlocked country. It also doesn’t have any big rivers it can use to transport goods out of the country. It isn’t a member of a trade alliance such as the EU to allow smooth transport of goods out of the country. The difficulty of transit into and out of the country adds a layer of costs that tends to make the country uncompetitive in the world market. No matter how much investment any country makes in Afghanistan, this handicap will still persist.

Also, Afghanistan has too high a population relative to its resources. We know that most wars are resource wars. The fact that Afghanistan has been involved in wars for many years hints at this problem. According to UN 2019 estimates, Afghanistan’s population was 7.8 million in 1950, 21.6 million in 2001, and 38.9 million in 2020, which is about five times the 1950 population. Water needs, in particular, tend to escalate as population rises.

[2] The US doesn’t know how to fight a guerrilla war.

The weapons developed by the US are too complex to be used in a guerrilla war. They tend to break down and require replacement parts. Needless to say, these parts are not available in Afghanistan. Even if Afghan soldiers are trained to use these weapons, they may not be available or suitable when needed.

George W. Bush should have known from the outcome of the 20-year Vietnam conflict (1955-1975) that any guerrilla war was likely to have a bad ending. In Afghanistan, the plan was to train Afghan soldiers, thus keeping US citizens out of the battlefield. This strategy kept the Afghan conflict off the front page of US newspapers, but the overall result seems to be similar.

[3] When George W. Bush took office in 2001, he seems to have had access to more funds than he knew what to do with. Starting a war in Afghanistan probably seemed like a good use for these funds. He could perhaps build military bases, and perhaps raise the standard of living of the people there.

The price of oil was especially low in the 1998 to 2001 period. This allowed tax revenue to “go farther” in providing benefits to the economy, allowing a temporary budget surplus. With such a surplus, getting funds appropriated for any purpose would likely have been easy.

Figure 1. US Budget Deficits and Surpluses by Year. Chart by Steve Benen. Source.

Even more importantly, with a fairly young population, the Social Security system had been collecting funds in advance of when they were needed, with the plan of building up the plan’s Trust Fund for use when a bulge in retirements was expected, starting about 2010. Figure 2 shows one chart that roughly illustrates the overfunding and planned use for the funds. Unfortunately, Figure 2 doesn’t treat investment income in the way it is actually collected; it leaves out past investment income and uses discounted cash flow assumptions for the future, so a person cannot readily estimate net contributions to the Trust Fund balance by year from this chart.

Figure 2. Forecast of Social Security surpluses and deficits. Chart by Peter G. Peterson Foundation, based on Social Security Administration, The 2020 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Trust Funds. Source.

Figure 2 indicates that there was considerable overfunding starting in the late 1980s. The thing that actuaries (and others) didn’t consider is the fact that there is a real difference between debt and the physical resources that will be needed when these older people retire. Retirees will need food, water and energy to heat their homes. They will need medicine and long term care institutions. They should also be able to provide their share of the upkeep of roads and electricity transmission networks.

Debt is a promise of future funds to purchase goods and services, but it doesn’t make the resources required to create these goods and services materialize out of “thin air.” To keep these promises, oil needs to be extracted, refined, and delivered to farmers. There needs to be enough fresh water available to irrigate adequate farmland to produce the required food. There need to be supply lines that are working to deliver the required food. There need to be enough young people who are willing to work on farms and in care centers for the aged. The wages for these young workers need to be high enough so that they too can have food, shelter and other things that we consider necessities.

When the extra Social Security funds were collected, the officials who collected them figured out that as a practical matter, there was little that they could do with them besides spend them at the time they were collected. They couldn’t set up warehouses with food, clothing, building materials and energy resources to keep on hand for 30 or 40 years. If they invested the money in the stock market, the money would simply cause a bubble in stock prices. If they built new factories or nursing homes, they would be unfairly competing with existing businesses.

I am not sure that there is any good record of how these extra funds were spent. My understanding is that they provided a very large slush fund that allowed expanded military activities among other things. From an accounting point of view, non-marketable government debt was substituted for the funds that were spent. Thus, when an actuary looks at the Trust Fund, it is fully funded. It is just that it is funded with more US government debt.

The catch is that the non-marketable US government debt doesn’t actually correspond to any resources. Any food used in 2022 (or 2050) will need to be grown in that year, using resources available in that year. Most clothing used in a given year will need to be produced with resources available at that time. Putting together a model that assumes business as usual forever tends to give a rosy picture because it leaves out this detail.

The 2020 OSDAI Trustees Report provides actual income, outgo, and interest income through 2019. From this report, it can be concluded that the extra Social Security slush fund is rapidly disappearing. In fact, it seems to be turning to a hidden source of required year-by-year funding starting as soon as 2020 or 2021.

In some sense, the “real economy” operates on a “cash basis,” rather than an “accrual basis.” This has not been recognized in our accounting or our models. Ignoring the way the system really works likely leads to a hidden crunch, starting about 2021. We know that retirements were high in 2020, adding to the potential problem. I am certain that President Biden and his advisors are aware of this issue, even though it is never reported on the front pages of newspapers.

[4] There is really a two-sided energy price problem. Consumers can afford only low energy prices but, as the result of depletion and population growth in oil exporting countries, producers need high oil prices.

Figure 3 is a chart I prepared a few years ago. In it, there is a pattern of rapidly rising wages when oil prices were very low. Workers became more productive with new factory equipment and vehicles, produced with oil, and operated using oil products. As a result, their wages rose.

Figure 3. Average wages in 2017$ compared to Brent oil price, also in 2017$. Oil prices in 2017$ are from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018. Average wages are total wages based on BEA data adjusted by the GDP price deflator, divided by total population. Thus, they reflect changes in the proportion of the population employed as well as changes in wage levels.

On the other hand, when oil prices spiked, the prices of many goods, including food, airline tickets, and the fuel used for commuting to work, rose. People cut back on discretionary income, such as eating in restaurants and vacation travel. Businesses with fewer customers laid off workers. The workers who could find jobs often found lower-paid or part time jobs. The result was a dip in average wages, both in the 1970s and at the time of the Great Recession of 2007-2009.

We now live in a world with depleted resources. The oil and other types of energy that are available are high in cost, but the prices tend to stay too low for producers when all costs are included. Oil resources from the Middle East and Venezuela, especially, need a higher oil price because the governments of these countries need very high taxes on oil revenue to support their large populations. Even shale oil from the United States needs a higher price than is available today.

If we want OPEC to supply the rest of the world with more oil, the price will need to rise much higher than today’s Brent oil price of about $73. It likely will need to rise to at least $100 per barrel and show that it can stay at this high level. Otherwise, the supposed reserves of OPEC will mostly stay in the ground.

Even the US needs a higher oil price. Its oil, gas and coal production fell during the pandemic in 2020. Through May 2021 (and even later using weekly data, not shown), oil and natural gas production has not rebounded to the 2019 level.

Figure 4. US fossil fuel average daily production by month through May 2021, based on data from the US Energy Information Administration. NGPL means natural gas plant liquids. NGPL are extracted with natural gas but condensed out and sold as liquids.

Note that oil and gas production also dipped in 2016. Figure 3 shows that oil prices were also low then. If prices are too low, would-be producers leave them in the ground.

Adding in nuclear and renewables (hydroelectric, ethanol, wood, wind, solar and geothermal) still leaves a large dip in recent production.

Figure 5. US average daily production by type based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.

President Biden is no doubt aware of the fact that the US’s production of energy products, especially crude oil, is now low. In fact, earlier in August he asked OPEC and its allies to increase their oil production to try to keep prices from rising too much. Why would OPEC want to increase its production, if the US can’t increase its own production at the current price level? All of the producers need a higher price level; it is consumers who cannot afford the higher price level.

[5] The world seems to have already begun shifting to a falling energy consumption per capita situation.

The amount of energy required tends to rise with population because all of the people require food, housing and transportation. Energy, especially oil and coal, are needed for these.

Figure 6. Energy consumption per capita for all energy sources combined based on data from BP’s Statistical Review of Energy 2021.

Many countries, including the United States, have been able to hold down their internal energy consumption per capita by moving much of their industry to China and India.

Figure 7. US energy consumption per capita, divided between industrial and other, based on information of the US Energy Information Administration. Energy consumption includes both electricity and fuels such as oil, coal, natural gas, ethanol and wood burned for heat. All transportation fuels are in the “Ex. Industrial” portion.

Figure 7 shows that US industrial production reached its peak in 1973, which was shortly after US oil production started to turn down in 1971. This partly reflects auto manufacturing moving to Japan and Europe, where smaller, more fuel-efficient cars were already being sold. Home heating and electricity generation also shifted away from oil to other fuels.

The issue now is that “Ex. Industrial” consumption has been falling since the Great Recession. In some sense, the economy has been losing strength since 2008 and continues to lose strength. Fewer and fewer people can feel like they are really getting ahead. They are saddled with low wage jobs and too much debt.

Figure 8 shows similar patterns for the European Union and Japan. Energy consumption per capita was rising until a few years before the Great Recession, and then it plateaued. It has been declining since.

Figure 8. Energy consumption per capita for the European Union and Japan from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

The pattern shown on Figure 8 suggests that energy prices are still too high for consumers, even though they are, at the same time, too low for producers. Travel restrictions imposed by governments may also be contributing to this pattern.

GDP data indications are prepared on an accrual basis. In other words, they reflect the impact of added debt. If missing energy can be replaced with a promise of debt to pay for more goods and services in the future, made with future energy, then perhaps all will be well. The quantity of debt that is required, relative to the GDP impact, keeps rising, suggesting this substitution is not working very well.

Figure 9. Dollars of additional debt required to add $1 dollar of GDP growth (including inflation), based on data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

With the addition of growing amounts of debt, GDP increases are reported to be much larger than expected growth, based only on the growth in energy consumption.

Figure 10. Average annual increase in energy consumption for the period shown based on EIA data versus average increase in real (inflation-adjusted) GDP for the period shown, based on data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

[6] We now seem to be reaching the end of the line with respect to what can be done with added debt to make the economy seem like it is performing adequately well.

Interest rates show a very distinct pattern. They rise until about 1981, and then they decline.

Figure 11. US 10-year and 3-month interest rates through July 2021, in a chart prepared by FRED.

When the US economy was growing rapidly, it could withstand high and rising interest rates. Since 1981, the general pattern has been one of falling interest rates, making a larger quantity of debt affordable. Indirectly, these falling interest rates also helped prop up asset prices, such as those of homes and shares of stock. In recent years, interest rates have fallen about as far as they can go. To some extent, these lower rates were made possible by Quantitative Easing (QE). But at some point, QE needs to be stopped.

Today, interest rates are approximately at the level they were during the Great Depression of the 1930s. This makes sense; interest rates to some extent reflect the return an investor can expect to make. Right now, without a lot of government support programs, “Main Street” businesses around the world are struggling. This indicates that the economy is doing very poorly. There are too many people who cannot afford even basic goods and services. Indirectly, this feeds back to commodity prices that are not high enough for producers of energy products.

Recently, governments of many countries have tried a different approach. Instead of loans, they are providing something closer to giveaways. Renters are allowed to stay rent-free in their apartments. Or, checks are given to all citizens earning below some specified amount. What we seem to be finding is that these giveaways produce inflation in the price of goods that poor people buy most frequently, such as food and used cars.

The giveaways don’t actually produce more of the required goods and services, however. Instead, would-be workers decide that they really don’t want to take a low-paid job if the giveaways provide nearly as much income. The loss of workers then acts to reduce production. With lower production of goods and services, a smaller quantity of oil is required, so the oil price tends to fall. The price certainly does not rise to the level needed by oil producers.

[7] In a finite world, longer-term models need to take into account the fact that resources deplete and the population keeps rising.

Any modeler who tries to take into account the fact that resources deplete and the overall population keeps rising will quickly come to the conclusion that, at some point, every economy will have to collapse. This has been known for a very long time. Back in 1957, Admiral Hyman Rickover of the US Navy said,

Surplus energy provides the material foundation for civilized living – a comfortable and tasteful home instead of a bare shelter; attractive clothing instead of mere covering to keep warm; appetizing food instead of anything that suffices to appease hunger. . .

For it is an unpleasant fact that according to our best estimates, total fossil fuel reserves recoverable at not over twice today’s unit cost, are likely to run out at some time between the years 2000 and 2050, if present standards of living and population growth rates are taken into account.

Now, in 2021, it looks as if this problem is starting to hit us. But no one (since Jimmy Carter, who was not re-elected) has dared tell the general public. Instead, accrual accounting with more and more debt is used in financial statements, including GDP statements. Actuaries put together Social Security funding estimates as if the resources to provide the promised benefits will really be there. Climate change models are prepared as if business as usual can go on for the next hundred years. Everything published by the mainstream media is based on the underlying assumption that we will have no problems other than climate change for the next 100 years.

[8] About all that can be done now is to start cutting back on the less necessary parts of the economy.

President Biden’s abrupt pullout from Afghanistan reflects a reality that increasingly has to take place in the world. The US needs to start pulling back because there are too many people and not enough inexpensive to extract resources to fulfill all of the commitments that the US has made. As mentioned earlier, there are a number of obstacles to success in Afghanistan. Thus, it is a good place to start.

With the need to pull back, there is a much higher level of conflict, both within and between countries. The big issue becomes who, or what, is going to be “voted off the island” next. Is it the elderly or the poor; the military or the oversized US medical establishment; university education for a large share of students or classroom teaching for young children?

We don’t seem to have a good way out of our current predicament. This seems to be what is behind all of the recent internet censorship. Renewables and nuclear require fossil fuel energy for their production and maintenance. The powers that be don’t want anyone to know that nearly all of the “happily ever after using renewables” stories we hear are based on wishful thinking.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
This entry was posted in Financial Implications and tagged Accrual accounting, oil prices, oil production, Social Security funding. Bookmark the permalink.

3,463 Responses to The Afghanistan Fiasco (and Today’s High Level of Conflict) Reflect an Energy Problem

  1. “Iron ore tumbles 22% in worst week since 2008 financial crisis… as Chinese steel mills dumped the commodity in response to government production curbs and a cooling property market…

    “The steelmaking raw material, which hit a record high above $230 a tonne in May, traded at $100.80 on Friday, down 22 per cent over the week…”

    https://www.ft.com/content/fc874d0a-33af-4f49-a6c8-4a812422269d

    • “How Beijing’s Debt Clampdown Shook the Foundation of a Real-Estate Colossus…

      “The looming collapse is a microcosm of China’s overheated housing market, in which prices have been climbing for years.”

      https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-beijings-debt-clampdown-shook-the-foundation-of-a-real-estate-colossus-11631957400

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Evergrande’s debt grew until 2017, and then plateaued. Its problems likely have been building for a long time.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      A 22% drop in the price of iron ore is huge! The Chinese clampdown on real estate will affect economies around the world.

      • Dennis L. says:

        What makes it hell for the end user is the incredible volatility in materials, e.g. lumber for a homebuilder.

        There is a lag from wholesale, raw materials; purchased a quantity of rigid, electrical conduit recently, price increased 20% in one week, replacement windows recently increased 12% in less than a month.

        Autos are a challenge: looked at a Camry hybrid this summer, $27K, now only thing available $34K with attendant increase in sales tax and registration amount. Seems like it should go down if one waits, but that didn’t happen with homes or land in the US.

        My take is in purchasing things, stuff, between the date of purchase and the date of use we are making bridge loans on assets the value of which we cannot predict. It is a real cash cost.

        Dennis L.

  2. Student says:

    Thousands of policemen have not taken the jab yet (neither the first dose) and they don’t want to do it.
    Among prison policemen the percentage is one third of not vaccinated.
    If the new rule (mandatory jab for work) from the 15th of October will really take effect, Italy will fall in a situation of no security.
    I think that the government is playing poker and is making a blouf, but if the other player (people) doesn’t fall for it, they are in trouble.

    https://www.ilparagone.it/attualita/boom-di-non-vaccinati-tra-i-poliziotti-cosi-il-governo-mette-a-rischio-la-pubblica-sicurezza/

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      A person might say, “It will be interesting to watch.”

      It seems like whatever is being said about the vaccines keeps changing. Lots of different governments are trying the same bluff. Losing lots of workers might be the result.

  3. Student says:

    Italian government is again on the edge of default.
    There is big budget hole about INPS (pension fund), because many workers had Covid, stayed home for that and they need to paid for illness (but no money arrived yet, because INPS was already in a crisis situation before that).
    They are also trying to find money to help people to pay the 40% increase on gas price, but there is actually no money to help.
    It is clear that geen pass is necessary to have people disciplined (link them to permissions or bans) and have them under the new ‘tessera annonaria’.

    https://www.iltempo.it/economia/2021/09/18/news/governo-allarme-inps-buco-2021-e-caro-energia-bollette-28719508/

    https://guerrainfame.it/razionamento_e_tesseramento

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      A lot of countries are in really terrible shape. If natural gas prices rise, this will be another blow to them.

      Pensions plans everywhere are a problem. It is not possible to actually pre-fund them because pensioners eat food grown in the year that it is eaten and purchase clothes made in the year that they are made.

      Economies in general are built on promises. These promises work on the way up, but they don’t work on the way down.

    • houtskool says:

      Student,

      Italy will not ‘default’. Its a core member. The ECB switched from yoeld curve control to yield spred control. So Italy will pay as less as, for example, Germany.

      Take a good look at the word less.

  4. Student says:

    Some additional information about the help of Vitamin D levels given in an interview to Dr. David Anderson at the Covid International Summit held in Rome.

    https://www.byoblu.com/2021/09/18/il-problema-della-vitamina-d-e-che-costa-troppo-poco-david-anderson/

    • Student says:

      He talks also about Bill Gates foundation…

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Nice interview. This is part of what it says:

      On the sidelines of the International Covid Summit Byoblu we interviewed Dr. David Anderson, Endocrinologist in Manchester. Below is the transcript of the interview:

      Q: You talked about vitamin D, so I would like to ask you if you think it protects against coronavirus infection.

      A: I think it produces some protection, but you have to distinguish if you are talking about prevention to avoid getting infected or protection when you have it. . . vitamin D is just completely ignored. The evidence, long before this pandemic, the evidence that a vitamin D deficiency plays a role in epidemics, pandemics, viral and bacterial infections was enormous.

      Q: And speaking of this, many governments have closed citizens in their homes …

      A: Scandalous. Yes, I saw in Rome last year, just ridiculous. I’m not a natural conspiracy theorist, but I think the problem is, if you look at the Gates Foundation. Bill Gates has made billions and has apparently dedicated himself to fighting pandemics. And just look at what he said in the past. He was looking for it, they were looking for a pandemic, already in 2009, with the swine flu and they rushed, Glaxo-Smith-Kline rushed with the pandemics, so I think they called it, and they caused hundreds of problems in children, with neurological conditions such as narcolepsy. And this is not mentioned. They had vaccinated thirty million people around the world, causing a narcolepsy epidemic, in Finland, I believe, and in some cases in Britain. Of really serious pathologies due to autoimmune damage to part of the brain. And they don’t care at all. Big Pharma doesn’t care, unfortunately. Big Pharma doesn’t want us to have good levels of vit. D, because so much of the business model depends on cancer, autoimmune diseases, I’m an endocrinologist, type 1 and type 2 diabetes. The list of diseases that depend on vitamin D deficiency is very long.

      And of course, one of the problems with vitamin D is that it costs very little. It is cheap to produce from irradiated lanolin. And as I have already said, the cost of a year of supply to restore good levels of vitamin D in an adult is less than ten euros per year. So, I have been in contact with Abiogen, in Italy, luckily we have some very good companies that produce vitamin D in various forms, but they have to keep a low profile, not to anger Big Pharma.

  5. https://www.yahoo.com/news/real-life-tarzan-lived-jungle-082700856.html
    A real-life “Tarzan” who lived in the Vietnamese jungle for four decades has died of liver cancer at the age of 52, The Times reported.

    Ho Van Lang returned to civilization in 2013 after he spent his entire life in the dense Vietnamese jungle with his father, Ho Van Than.

    The duo was persuaded to return to their village after Than’s health deteriorated. He died in 2017, aged 86.

    Lang and Than first retreated to the jungle in 1972 after a US bomb killed half their family during the Vietnam War. They spent 41 years farming corn, surviving off plants and wild animals, and living in a timber hut five meters off the ground.

    According to a friend, explorer Alvaro Cerezo, Than had a profound phobia of leaving the jungle “as he did not believe the Vietnam War was over,” First Post reported.

    When father and son did emerge from the jungle eight years ago, they were wearing loincloths made of tree bark and had made little human contact.

    • kulmthestatusquo
      kulmthestatusquo says:

      The poor guy, unable to adjust to the modern world, probably spent all his time drinking.

      When ‘Ishi”, the ‘last Yahi’ (later studies found he was not even the last Yahi but was a mix with another tribe) was found and put into the care of Alfred Kroeber (the father of Ursula Le Guin), Ishi also spent quite a good time drinking.

      • I posted it to have on display Winners of the Fast Eddie Challenge!
        Think it is possible to live in the “Bush”…bit must have the mindset of having no choice in coming out…A number of WWII Japanese soldiers did the same after the war ended …
        The Fast Eddie Challenge…LOL…

  6. Xabier says:

    UK supply-chain update; gaps are now appearing on the shelves of my usual supermarket, but not fresh produce, which is all fully stocked – the missing items are shampoos, tea, some canned goods (canned beef and chicken -panic-buying ahead of lock-downs?) , rubber gloves, matches. Quite random.

    They re-stock on Mondays, so we shall see what the place looks like then.

    The total shortage of chorizo sausage from La Rioja (Que rico!) was entirely caused by yours truly, so doesn’t count.

    Viva la fiesta, amigos!

    • Viva indeed. Looks like ties, randomly, are also becoming an issue:

      “Britain is facing a tie shortage as shops admit that a return to offices and an increase in weddings has left them struggling for stock.”

      https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/17/tie-shortage-adds-britains-supply-chain-woes/

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      These shortages seem hard to predict.

    • Matches and candles might be good items to get now in the UK, ahead of winter and potential blackouts.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Sounds like a good idea!

  7. Trousers says:

    UK government minister to tell off naughty utility companies for making energy too expensive.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/18/government-holds-urgent-talks-with-energy-firms-over-gas-price-rises

    The way he reiterates that he’s not expecting a crisis this winter, suggests to me it is touch and go over whether or not there are going to be blackouts.

    • worldofhanumanotg
      worldofhanumanotg says:

      Eh, one of the key hubs (City) of global fin about to enter winter season in blackouts?
      So, there only one question remaining is it going to be exploited by whomever on the continent, across the ocean, .. (immediately or mid/longer term)?

      ps understandably there will be prioritization – so other (poor) neighborhoods will be surely thrown under the bus first but..

    • “The government is understood to be considering… a longer-term shake-up to accelerate the UK’s shift away from fossil fuels and address the “fragility in the energy retail market”.

      ““There’s nothing about this situation that wouldn’t be better if we were less reliant on gas,” the source said.”

      That is an hilarious spin by The Guardian and their source. Reminds me of the recent Israeli logic: “Oh, no – the vaccinations aren’t working very well… Better ramp up the vaccinations!”

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Holding down prices is hardly the way to get more natural gas, or electricity.

      It is hard to see all of the ramifications of the high natural gas prices:

      Two large fertiliser plants that produce CO2 as a byproduct in Teesside and Cheshire have shut as a result of the sudden rise in wholesale gas prices.

      The chief executive of the British Meat Processors Association, Nick Allen, said CO2 was essential for the humane slaughter of livestock and extending the shelf life of products.

      He told the Today programme: “If we haven’t got the CO2 supplies, on the packaging side that reduces the shelf life of products going on the shelves at a time when we are really struggling because of all the transport problems.

  8. Yoshua says:

    The booster is producing unprecedented levels of antibodies against the Alfa. Dr Eric Ding is excited beyond belief.
    The immune system will be entirely occupied by producing antibodies against the Alfa spike when people are injected with the genes that forces their cells to pump out the poisonous spike.

    Bossche will be right again? The immune system will be so overwhelmed by producing antibodies against the Alfa, that its defence against other variants and viruses will collapse? And the Alfa is not even coming anymore.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E_f5jH6XEAEvNY0?format=jpg&name=900×900

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      These are details that most people don’t think about.

  9. “Africa’s largest forest is at risk of deforestation as Gabon’s oil revenues plummet.

    “Gabon, which has diligently cared for the forest for nearly three decades, says it will not be able to protect it from deforestation as the country’s oil revenues collapse in future years.”

    https://news.sky.com/video/africas-largest-forest-is-at-risk-of-deforestation-as-gabons-oil-revenues-plummet-12410718

    • Hubbs says:

      Steve St Angelo over at http://www.srsroccoreport.com (subscription required) did a very interesting report how the Romans essentially denuded incredible amounts of forests to make charcoal by which they could use for their smelters to produce /purify various metals – for plows, weapons , coins etc.- copper, iron, zinc, tin, and silver and gold. Being less energy dense than coal or oil, huge swathes of trees were required. Cutting them down by hand must have been a daunting task, but eventually as the wood supply lines lengthened and transport became more costly, the empire became thermodynamically over extended.

      I wonder if a new wave of deforestation will hit when oil/coal become costly to mine, transport, and refine. I could see people having to cut down more trees when they can no longer afford coal, oil, or natural gas to heat their homes. There is no wood available in the cities. Analogous to power loss through long transmission lines from solar and wind farms, hauling wood from the forest to the city would be impractical. Would these shortages, along with a scarcity of food, eventually drive populations to the country side- like locusts- in search of food and energy? One thing for sure, we would no longer have an obesity problem.

      • Malcopian says:

        Desertification is currently hitting large parts of Southern Europe and Northern America, to name but two affected regions. Humans will be competing with fire and the Klymit insurgency for the remaining trees, woods, forests.

        • Hubbs says:

          And speaking of desertification following deforestation, Steve also mentioned how forests act like reservoirs of water to store water and stabilize local or regional rainful -if I understood him correctly. Although the oceans supply a vast area for evaporation and formation of water vapor, the forests may afford local water /rainfall stability. I guess we can use the Egyptians and the Sahara as an example. Probably very lush and green a few thousand years ago, but then became desert. Did man-made deforestation cause the transformation into desert or did local climate change as the primary cause? Meanwhile, Libya and the northern Africa reportedly sit atop a huge aquifer. Now I wonder, will they have the gas /oil energy to extract it? I guess follow the depletion of the midwest US Ogalalla Aquifer for a clue.

      • worldofhanumanotg
        worldofhanumanotg says:

        Hubbs, that’s excellent point, and in fact more important (daunting) than any pandemics, nuclear war or whatever..

      • So much for the idea that the end of fossil fuels will be good for eco-systems. Humans gonna do what humans gonna do. 7.9 billion (it seems like yesterday that figure passed 7 B in 2011) humans gonna devour everything in their path in an absolutely desperate devourment, as if their lives depend on it – which they will. It is basic organic drives in motion, which drives everything that humans gonna do.

        It does not really ‘matter’. It is an human illusion that it does, anyway, a part of our inbred psychological adaptation to pursue our own organic drives, to live. And eco-systems will ‘eventually’ recover anyway. Time is a matter of perspective, our species experiences it in our own way – the entire world of ‘meaning’ is a human fabrication. A ‘long’ time, a ‘short’ time – it is all perspective.

        When humans whine on about ‘oh, the eco-systems’, it is just another way that humans talk about themselves and their dispositions – and it is all ordered to the pursuit of the same organic drives. It is wholly untrue, an illusion, that ‘green’ concerns are the ‘opposite’ of devourment – all human predispositions are aimed at the operation of the organic drives.

        ‘It matters in itself’ – does anyone still ‘believe’ that nonsensical fabrication? It is an obvious anthropomorphisation of reality. What would it even ‘mean’ for reality to ‘matter’ without humans, without the wilful subject to whom it matters? It is an obvious conflation of the dispositions of the human subject with the reality within which it operates – an absolute naivety.

        So, humans gonna do what humans gonna do. All of the other organisms are gonna do what those are gonna do. Eco-systems are gonna do what those are gonna do. It is all a ‘doing’ that has no ‘meaning’ beyond what humans think that it ‘means’ – beyond what it means for them, which ‘meaning’ is ordered ultimately to the ‘doing’ of the organic drives.

        And yes, doing can be an undoing – but it is what it is, a doing that has no ‘meaning’ beyond the scope of human doing – it is a doing by a species that is gonna do what it is gonna do. : )

        • Kowalainen says:

          “And yes, doing can be an undoing – but it is what it is, a doing that has no ‘meaning’ beyond the scope of human doing – it is a doing by a species that is gonna do what it is gonna do. : )”

          That’s what nature does – experiments. Most of them doesn’t move the needle of evolutionary progression and hence gets rolled back into mineral and eventually into other life.

          GGWP!

          Try again?

      • It is a ‘black hole fanfare’, ‘signifying nothing’. : )

        • Interesting stuff.

          > In 2015 Gadi was invited to Edinburgh by The NESS Project to check out their groundbreaking sound synthesis work. With the help of a supercomputer, the NESS group had created new digital systems capable of creating sounds so complex, rich and realistic they were indistinguishable from acoustic instruments. Better yet, the code could be hacked to create completely imaginary sonic worlds with bizarre physical properties.

          Gadi fell in love with this idea and became resident composer at NESS for the following years, collaborating with the researchers to create impossible instruments: mile-long trumpets blown by dragon fire in Black Hole Fanfare, needle fingers brushing eternally vibrating strings in Pi (π), giant resonating lattices of bound masses and springs in the Moto Perpetuo suite and Collision Suite, marbles sliding on thousand-string fretboards in Young’s Modulus, morphing bouncing objects in Chaos & Order, an orchestra of giant bowed basses in Life On A Tidally Locked Planet.

          Multiverse was designed and created by bending the laws of physics in subtle ways, effectively creating acoustic simulations from parallel universes….

          https://www.astrangelyisolatedplace.com/asipv026-gadi-sassoon-multiverse

      • NomadicBeer says:

        Some years ago there was a report that calculated how long the forests would last if all the energy of a state (of USA) would come from biomass.

        The number varied from ~2 years (Oregon I think) to a couple of months.

        The report did not include all the energy required to cut and process the wood and all the conversion losses so the numbers are lower in reality.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I saw an article about Japan plans to add more “renewables.” They are looking into unclaimed woodland that they can cut down to add to their biofuels. This hardly sounds sensible.

  10. Fast Eddy says:

    Italy – Vaccine Passport Compulsory for All Workers

    https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=106

  11. Yoshua says:

    SOHO captures something strange next to the sun. A rising phoenix from three glowing spheres.

    Loop is an associate of Mr Pool. “We are the Loop”.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/00Lo_oP00/status/1438940925372293127

    • Bei Dawei says:

      Right now about 8 percent have received one shot, 4 percent two. The choices are Sputnik-V, Sinopharm, or AstraZenica.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Another “plug” for getting vaccinated, I see.

  12. Tim Groves says:

    Geert Vanden Bosshe is far from being an anti-vaxer. In fact, he develops them But he is against mass vaccination using the current Covid-19 shots during a pandemic for a number of very strong and important reasons.

    Most of us have seen several of Geert’s videos and read some of his essays or blog posts. But his reasoning is difficult to follow because it is pitched in expertise, which is impenetrable to a great many lay people and hard to grasp for almost all of them. I’ve been approaching satori on his ideas recently, but only after having gone through them umpteen times.

    Now, however, comes a video analysis of what Bossche is saying from a man who is adept at making complex things understandable—Del Bigtree. Del has taken apart one of Geert’s first interviews and explains a number of the most important points so that we can all say “Indeed…
    Right…. Oh, I see… That’s what he was getting at!”

    Based on the Belgian adept ideas, Del envisages the human immune system as working like an American football team defending itself against attacks by viruses. To convert this analogy into something non-Americans can understand, think of soccer teams. For those who follow the English football league, the Covid-shots change the team’s defenders so that they are as good as Manchester United at defending against the alpha variant and as useless as West Ham at defending against anything else. Confront them with a different coronavirus or flu virus and they are going to loose Eight-bloody-nil.

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/CkK9TPgivIQs/

  13. Fast Eddy says:

    At first, Iversen said, it looked as though the vaccines might at least be protecting against more severe symptoms, because for the most part, only the unvaccinated were having to be hospitalized.

    “But then as time went on … the hospitals started to fill up with fully vaccinated people,” Iversen said, “and they saw more and more cases among the fully vaccinated, and more and more of them becoming very severe to the point where the majority of their cases in the hospitals and in the ICU and those dying were fully vaccinated people.”

    Iversen has been tracking data in multiple countries besides Israel, including Iceland, Chile, Seychelles, Uruguay and others.

    “I have a whole list of countries that I’ve been monitoring on this,” she said. “And it was really clear early on that the vaccine was not stopping the spread, but it did seem to keep people out of the hospital for a period of time.”

    But then Israel found the vaccine was wearing off — so they told everybody they would need a third, booster shot, “in order to participate in society,” Iversen said.

    That seemed to work for awhile — but now cases are rising again.

    https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/kim-iversen-covid-vaccine-data-israel/

    Hmmm… they only started on the Booster less than 2 months ago…… soon it will be a new booster every week… then every day….

    Now imagine what happens when you boost every hour… then … well you see where this is headed…

    EXACTLY in the direction Team Bossche predicted…. at some point the boosters push on a string…

    Queue Nightmare Scenario….

    It’s coming norm…. dunc .. and the other barking MOREONs.

  14. Fast Eddy says:

    I hope Rachel Madcow is maimed from the injections.

  15. Mike Roberts
    Mike Roberts says:

    Looks like an interesting read, which I’ve just started.

    Part of the mission of The REAL Green New Deal Project (REALgnd) is to expand the scope of inquiry into renewable energy (RE) technologies from a holistic perspective. We begin that inquiry with an initial examination of the widely overlooked limitations of the RE technologies commonly put forth as solutions (which do not constitute all possible RE options). This examination shows that RE cannot deliver the same quantity and quality of energy as fossil fuels, that the espoused technologies are not renewable, and that producing them—particularly mining their metals and discarding their waste—entails egregious social injustices and significant ecological degradation. From this, we conclude that the narrative of business-as-usual with a technological fix is not possible and that scale-back, transformation, and a reassessment of RE options is needed.

    https://aad34399-d41b-4ad9-8d9d-5a2916094de2.filesusr.com/ugd/d8f080_433f3a6554b34231b6c6af71c437d625.pdf (PDF)

    • MM says:

      The study goes in the right direction but it is a bit pessimistic in my oppinion.
      When you say that high process temperatures are a problem, I invite you to look at this plant that was already operating from 1969:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odeillo_solar_furnace

      The problem with these is that you might need to transform glass steel and cement manufacturing in a way that it operates intermittently (day/night) and would need to be put in a place with little clouds (would not really matter in case you would not want to produce billions of tons of these materials).

      I proposed a research project for that to the European Comission and their reply was:
      “Not innovative”
      Everything that you now apply some funding for today in which you claim to use “existing and well established technologies” is doomed to fail for financial support because not being innovative, meaning it does not deliver exploitative IP capital.

      The hydrogen path is being chosen as a way to keep out low tech and low capital companies from the market. This can also be deemed as “recolonialisation”.
      For OFW purposes, it is doomed to fail, but when we realise that in 20 years (*cough*), other options will be gone.

      Yesterday I received an email about the hydrogen industry in the UK generating 25.000 jobs. Well, first you need to pay for the energy inefficiency of the whole hydrogen system and second you will need to pay for these employees.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Putting solar furnaces in deserts somewhere would be of little help in a world that has trouble transporting goods from place to place. They would probably need to be deserts near the equator, to get sun year around. Keeping them clean would not doubt be a problem too. I would not count on solar furnaces.

        • sandstorms and bad tempererd desert dwellers should deliver the true economic s of solar panels there.

        • MM says:

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preussen_(ship)
          was used to ship fertilizer (8000 tdw) from South America to Germany.

          Nobody said it will be easy, but if we do not try, it will for sure be impossible.
          There exist desert areas close to the sea in namibia that have little problems with sand storms.
          We can create very dense crystaline surfaces that can withstand a lot of sand storms.
          Cleaning might be necessary but the required area of mirror is not that huge (compared to Ivanpah for example)

          • MM says:

            Just for the fun of scaling:
            The marines some 300 years ago fought fierce wars about corns of pepper.
            I mean pepper, yeah, the stuff that you can buy in the supermarket at nearly zreo cost.

            Yes, It is a huge generational effort, to create or maintain a civilisation…

    • postkey
      postkey says:

      “One of the UK’s newest onshore windfarms, EDF’s Dorenell, recently published its first full-year accounts. Without its £27m of subsidy, it would have made an operating loss of £5 m.
      The French government would like to thank UK taxpayers for their generosity. ”

      https://twitter.com/thegwpfcom/status/1429699929396678661?s=20

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        I am sure that this does not include the subsidy of “going first.” There are likely other subsides that it doesn’t include. It is not a stand-alone source of electricity. It is very hard to value. It would need very long term batteries (several months, at least) to be a stand-alone source of electricity.

    • Xabier says:

      True renewables?

      Sun, wind and dung.

  16. Fast Eddy says:

    Chart To Make Your Hair Stand Up

    https://www.oilystuffblog.com/single-post/chart-to-make-your-hair-stand-up

    This is the Energy Information Agency’s estimate for HZ tight oil production for September 2021 showing a gain of 49,000 BOPD; most of that gain I believe is from completing + 12 month year old DUC’s.

    What folks should focus on is the production decline in September of 243,000 BOPD. That’s how much production the Permian looses per day and that has been fairly consistent over the past four months at current rig counts.

    Because of the steep decline of unconventional tight oil, something in the order of 84% the first 32 months of production life, there is essentially a one to one relationship between proven developed producing (PDP) reserves replaced, and production levels. Not quite, but you get the point.

    Reserve replacement ratios are the single most important metric to use in determining the future of tight oil in the Permian, and the US. If its not coming in the front door as fast as its going out the back, its a problem.

    DUC’s are all but done, GOR is going up. WOR is going up, over drilling is causing pressure depletion in core areas and well productivity is going down every so slightly every year. And make no mistake, these guys in the Permian are running out of primo locations; they will soon start to have to move into flank areas where well productivity is going to be even less, costs higher, and economics worse.

    https://static.wixstatic.com/media/62bf21_cef1e6e1176344038144fb18c28fd51b~mv2.jpg

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      For those who don’t know the lingo, DUC is “Drilled but uncompleted wells.” There was a backlog of these wells that were not put into use, when prices were terribly low. Now this backlog is almost gone.

      GOR stands for “Gas/Oil” ratio. Oil is the valuable product; gas only comes along because the oil is available. A rising GOR is very bad.

      WOR is the “Water/Oil” ratio. Oil and water are extracted together. As a well gets increasingly depleted, the share of water rises. Removing this water adds to costs. Oil companies do not like a rising WOR.

      Pressure depletion makes it harder to get anything out.

      It doesn’t sound good.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Shale has been the only thing between us and collapse of BAU…. the shale miracle is obviously on the precipice…. meanwhile conventional oil which peaked around 2005… has continued to deplete year after year… month after month … day after day….

        The alarm bells have been ringing for quite some time in the halls of power…. they seem to be able to hold the financial system together but they cannot print or stimulate cheap oil….

        The CEP makes total sense… it is in the interest of nobody to leave 8B humans alive when the power goes out….

        And it’s going out soon – permanently.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          The shale wells also produce a lot of natural gas. As the shale oil wells decline, I am afraid the natural gas does as well. At the same time, producers want to export more natural gas, to get the prices up. This doesn’t sound like a winning combination for consumers. This weekly report suggests that the EIA expects that electricity producers will shift to coal. But how much of a shift is really possible? Coal production is way down.

    • worldofhanumanotg
      worldofhanumanotg says:

      That sounds all “jolly good” under the PO script perspective, but the US can still turn spigots up for more oil imports either by twisting hands of the Gulfies or providing them some real flash on the bone e.g. not paper assets but long-er term deals on food (at the expense of domestic now!), weapons, or whatever fancy in mid 2020s. Obviously this can’t last forever (Gulfies are slowly pivoting East anyway) but extra few yrs easily..

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        The “Gulfies” as you call them really don’t have more oil at their disposal. They really need higher prices for the oil, to get enough tax dollars out. Oil reserves everywhere are an illusion. They are only available if the price of oil rises high enough to allow the economies of the Gulf countries to countries to continue. This means high priced oil ($120+ per barrel) that can be taxed so the country can afford the food and other products it needs.

        The price of all energy products is closely tied together. All of the prices rise higher at the same time: food, the wages required to hire non-elite workers, oil, coal, natural gas, uranium, wood products. Governments can print more money, but this simply inflates the overall price level.

        What tends to happen is the economy shifts from a growth mode to a contraction mode. More and more countries, programs, and even people get “voted off the island,” as their incomes fall too low, relative to the selling prices of everything that is needed. In fact, some people may die of starvation.

        • worldofhanumanotg
          worldofhanumanotg says:

          I agree but my context was clearly outlined as short term though..

          And as you alluded in the concluding paragraph, Gulfies could be pushed (apart from spare capacity) to deliver to the US instead of other say Indopacific / South Asian or African energy importers hang to dry.

        • Artleads says:

          “All of the prices rise higher at the same time: food, the wages required to hire non-elite workers, oil, coal, natural gas, uranium, wood products. Governments can print more money, but this simply inflates the overall price level.”

          All this is what I’m still trying to understanding more clearly: how all aspects of the economy trend together. I’m sure it must be as you say, but the printing money bit is not clear enough to me that I can explain it to someone else.

  17. Lidia17 says:

    I know Gail has said she doesn’t think numbers have been fudged, but this English funeral director sounds credible to me. He describes his “covid” experience as seeing a wave of euthanasia followed by a wave of vax injuries. Not sure whether this has already been posted. It’s John O’Looney out of Milton Keynes.

    About 40 min.—I found it riveting.
    https://www.bitchute.com/video/gigUyK3yLtMU/

    • Rodster says:

      He sounds believeable.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I listened to quite a bit of this. It doesn’t sounds like he is making this up. I can believe that the early deaths in care homes could have included some euthanasia victims. Deaths in care homes, initially, were incredibly high. But I thought that this was because of sick patients being discharged from hospitals to care homes, where they infected everyone. Also, inept early care.

      If I look at the CDC’s data on deaths by month (recent months are still incomplete), downloaded from this site,
      https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Monthly-Provisional-Counts-of-Deaths-by-Select-Cau/9dzk-mvmi

      What I see is two big spikes in deaths. The first one is in April 2020. This is when a lot of the US care home deaths occurred, especially in New York and Massachusetts.

      High months:
      January 2021 105,116 Second month of vaccinations
      December 2020 98,051 Vaccinations began with elderly
      April 2020 65,497 Shut down March 15 in US. Care home deaths? Later month’s deaths much lower.
      November 2020 53,207

      The second big spike occurred in December 2020, January 2021. This is the normal winter flu season, but it also coincides with the vaccination push, especially for the elderly.

      The timing of these deaths, based on the death certificate data (which is what the CDC uses) is earlier than I would expect based on the data regarding COVID cases. It would be hard for people to die as quickly as they would need to of COVID. It would seem possible that some of these deaths were really vaccine deaths or flu deaths.

      I suppose the truth could be somewhere in the middle. There could be quite a number of vaccine deaths mixed in with the COVID deaths, especially in the December 2020 and January 2021 data, when the elderly were getting vaccinated first. And the April 2020 deaths partly occurred because doctors didn’t yet know what they were doing. For example, initially, nearly all the people put on ventilators died because the settings were wrong for COVID.

      It seems as if we were told at the time that later months would have higher deaths, but that is not the way things worked out, based on CDC data.

      • Lidia17 says:

        Unusually-excessive purchases of Midalozam would seem to be a smoking gun. It’s acknowledged that the NHS acquired twice the normal amt., and then scrounged more from France.

        Usual monthly consumption: 100k units
        April 2020 consumption spike: 325k units

        https://theexpose.uk/2021/08/17/lawyers-send-open-letter-to-uk-gov-hancock-whitty-vallance-demanding-answers-on-alleged-mass-murder-in-care-homes-through-the-use-of-midazolam/

        • Slow Paul says:

          We use a lot of Midazolam for patients in palliative care. It’s really effective for reducing anxiety in terminal patients. The spike in purchases might have been due to supply constraints in the preceding period, so health institutions ordered extra to replenish their empty shelves. Making sure they don’t go without it.

      • Mike Roberts
        Mike Roberts says:

        How do the data relate to the peak of vaccinations in April?

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          April 2020 was long before vaccinations. I said it related to the early nursing home deaths. There were likely a lot of regular deaths in hospitals too. These were the very earliest cases/deaths. The shut down was March 15.

          • Mike Roberts
            Mike Roberts says:

            I meant April this year, which is why I left the year out. That was the peak of vaccinations, as far as I can tell.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              I don’t think deaths in April 2021 were high, but it is hard to tell from the CDC data. The data base shows them at only 18,522 COVID deaths at this time. It is hard to believe that this amount will grow to a huge number. Even if it doubled with late recorded death certificates, it still would be relatively low.

              Relatively young people rarely die of vaccinations; it is the elderly who are close enough to the edge already who tend to die. In many cases, it was the very elderly who were vaccinated first.

              I believe it is possible to download the data and see more detail regarding where all of the deaths came from, but I haven’t tried to look at this myself.

              The early states were New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts. I remember seeing one early analysis of deaths that showed that the number of sudden infant deaths declined significantly during the shut down. That was the period when infant immunizations effectively stopped.

          • Mike Roberts
            Mike Roberts says:

            Right. So at the peak of vaccinations, or soon after, deaths didn’t appear to spike.

            Why do you seem to think that vaccines cause a lot of deaths? Deaths will always occur throughout the year and some will be within some period after a personal event, including vaccination. Here in NZ, only one death has looked likely to have been caused by the vaccine (all such deaths are investigated here) and we have a fairly high level of vaccination in older people.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              I didn’t expect vaccines to cause a lot of immediate deaths, at least not compared to deaths from COVID. I was looking for some reason why deaths appear to be as high are they are, in the months that they are. This is the chart of US reported cases and deaths (7 day averages).
              https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Sept-18-US-COVID-cases-and-deaths-1024×602.png

              I was expecting that peak deaths would be in May 2020, and in January, February, March of 2021. Looking at the death certificates (which the CDC uses) the peak dates seem to be a month earlier than shown. I know that there is a lag in getting death certificates recorded. It is hard to believe that there is a huge lag in getting cases recorded. Perhaps deaths come very soon after cases are recorded. Or there is something else polluting the counts, such as deaths from vaccines of the elderly being mixed in.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              Upon second look at the chart, the number of deaths by month are fine. I was reading the markers on the chart wrong. The markers on the bottom are for the date shown. April 2020 does indeed look like the month with peak deaths, even though there were very few cases reported then. A lot of the deaths were in nursing homes and from inadequate treatment of COVID cases in hospitals, I expect.

  18. DB says:

    Exactly. Also, many hospitals have closed in the last two years, further reducing capacity, leading to similar statistical distortions.

    Others and I have shared a lot of evidence how hospitalization “with COVID” (based on useless PCR or physician suspicion) has been used in official stats as hospitalization “from COVID.” The current whistleblower’s story is consistent with that. Same goes for another recent story about a hospital administrator forcing employees to distort the number of COVID patients in their hospital (audio from a Zoom call, I think).

    • Fast Eddy says:

      And people ask ‘if we didn’t go to the moon then why didn’t the russians say something’….

      Mike Yeadon and Luc Montagnier (and many others) are trying to tell the world that we have not been to the moon …. and they are ridiculed.

      If you control the MSM … you control what the world thinks. You can make a circle a square… 1+1 = 7 .. or 4 … or 2000….

  19. hillcountry – retired electronics manufacturing engineer
    hillcountry says:

    What’s Going On with Shipping with Sal Mercogliano

    The Government Has a Plan to Clear the Ports…WE ARE DOOMED

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      We have all heard that there is a big traffic jam of container ships waiting for unload. Currently, 9% to 10% of global carriers are a sitting at port, waiting to be offloaded. Carriers have raised their rates and are making a lot of money.

      LA port is especially jammed up with ships waiting to unload. Biden administration wants the LA port to go from two shifts to three shifts (24 hours a day). It also wants this change an other ports.

      Sal Mercogliano believes that this won’t work without more trucks and rail coming in. Biden plan is fines for truck drivers who don’t get there on time. Fines won’t make it more attractive for truck drivers to pick up cargos at the port. Sal is worried that cargo will just sit on the port, and need to be moved a second time. Some of it will be refrigerator ships that need to be plugged into electricity all of the time, but this won’t happen.

      Sal believes that new ports need to be developed. Of course, this can’t happen in the short term.

      I am not sure that Sal is right. I have heard that China has dock workers working 24 hours a day in three shifts. I expect that trucks and trains might run more often as well, if more cargo was being unloaded (or not, depending on how many trucks and trains are really available). But operating the port for only 16 hours a day, when others are operating 24 hours per day, doesn’t sound like it will work.

  20. Fast Eddy says:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/17/fda-panel-begins-voting-on-pfizers-covid-booster-doses-rejecting-shots-for-general-public.html

    Keep in mind Israel initialling stated only over 65 would get the boosters….

    If the US does not boost… then infections hospitalizations and deaths will explode higher….

    Perhaps once injection rates surpass a certain threshold .. the nightmare scenario is assured…. or perhaps as hospitals fill with CovIDIOTS… the government flip flops (again..) and the boosters are approved…

    • Xabier says:

      Same in the UK: first, boosters ‘for the elderly and vulnerable’; then ‘everyone over 50’; now, ‘everyone over 30’.

      The it will be the teens and twenties.

      When the kids are done with their first injections , it will be boosters for them, too.

      Won’t it, Norman? But of course, he won’t read this as the truth is ‘beneath contempt.’…

      Now, if Geert v d Bossche and Bhakdi, etc, are correct, and this leads to people falling seriously ill even from contact with the common cold and any old coronavirus hanging about, it will serve to justify a perpetual State of Emergency, technocratic rule by decree, and further forced vaccinations of a population which won’t understand what the vaccines are doing to them.

  21. Fast Eddy says:

    Hong Kong Tests Boosters for Sinovac Shot as Protection Ebbs

    Antibodies are near undetectable levels within eight months

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-17/hong-kong-tests-boosters-for-sinovac-users-as-protection-wanes

    How to go from ‘95%’ to 0 in months… hahahahahaha…. time to Bare the Shoulder once again – CovIDIOTS!!!

    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SWoFWw3JA9Y/Wl37SKT-bKI/AAAAAAADRmM/asDaXFOXr04KnM_JnwUkVEagw4UWhEYcgCLcBGAs/s1600/2011-10-10-Russian-Roulette.png

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      None of the vaccines work for very long, it seems.

  22. Bobby says:

    Which is the best prophylactic ivermectin ,hydrochloroquin, monoclonal antibodies (Mabs) like Regen-Cov and Sotrovimab or Remdesivir can someone knowledgeable review them please?! They seem to be disease modifying treatments for Lupus.

    • DB says:

      Most of the evidence at the following site is for early treatment: https://c19early.com/

      For prophylactic purposes for all sorts of infections and diseases, vitamin D (5,000 IU/daily) is essential. Vitamin C, zinc, and quercetin might give additional protection.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Ivermectin in the right dose (pretty high) seems to work, especially early on in treatment. It also works as a prophylactic.

      Hydroxychloroquine, in small doses, helps the body absorb zinc better. Zinc assists the immune system. By itself, don’t expect hydroxychloroquine to do much. Vitamin D is not on your list, but it is very important for the immune system to work well. You need to start early to get you vitamin D level up (over 30 ng/ml, perhaps higher).

      I understand that monoclonal antibodies are somewhat helpful, but you don’t end up with your own antibodies afterward. You could catch the next COVID virus that comes along.

      It seems like Remdesivir is a very expensive drug that doesn’t really help. When I look it up online, the first article that come up says, “WHO recommends against the use of remdesiver in COVID-19.” Maybe someone else has details on this. Since it is expensive, and doesn’t seem to work, it has not been something I have been following.

      • Student says:

        Hello Gail, I know that Remdesivir is a drug used in Italian hospitals (at least some of them).
        It is used only in a later stage of the disease.
        One of my relatives has been treated with Remdesivir in April, because he had Covid-19 and his Doctor said to take only Tachipirin and wait for recovery (it is still the official Italian protocol).
        But naturally the disease get worse and he was obliged to go to the hospital, where Doctors treated him with Remdesivir at special dosages.
        Luckiliy he recovered.
        He is 70 years old and he is well now.

    • postkey
      postkey says:

      “CURRENTLY SUGGESTED TREATMENTS BASED UPON BEST AVAILABLE EVIDENCE RESEARCH RESULTS FOR PEOPLE INFECTED BY SARS-CoV-2 WHO ARE NOT HOSPITALIZED “?
      P6: https://21a86421-c3e0-461b-83c2-cfe4628dfadc.filesusr.com/ugd/659775_409b4bb7107f4320be075ce1404b048d.pdf

  23. kulmthestatusquo
    kulmthestatusquo says:

    Sooner or later, a pre-emptive strike by militarized police, para-military groups and other armed units against the poor will take place to gentrify locations and clear an area of potentially dangerous elements.

    In the 1920s, poor people, undesirable people and others who didn’t belong were NOT allowed to enter Berlin, as seen in books written by Hans Fallada or Emil Kastner . (It all changed when you-know-who took power, but)

    Important cities will be like that. Motor homes will be shot up, homeless people just bludgeoned to death, and fires in slums won’t be extinguished.

    In utilitarian terms,that is for the greater good. Tokyo and Seoul are safe to walk around at nighttime (except in areas where ‘foreigners’ tend to congregate). Centers of civilization will be like that.
    d
    Suburbs will disappear since there would be no danger living in the inner city, which is already happening in Japan (where the suburb houses are to house older people who are no longer productive), and a mass murder of the poor as resources contract is inevitable.

    • houtskool says:

      Eventually, reality sets in. And Mother Nature takes over.

      A beautiful deleveraging.

    • worldofhanumanotg
      worldofhanumanotg says:

      Hans Fallada (omg I’d not expect him to be referenced here) is just a stunning author in terms of depicting the grandiose perversity of the “upper classes” not only in post WWI German’s context of his era – following more general approach as the early commune-nists and Marxists even before him identified the key problem:

      first step: getting money / control over resources by whatever means
      second step: turn this leverage into rentier position and then living off others

      The problem is that this humanoid mutation / trait / push / calling / urge can’t be unlearned fast – it would take millennia for humans to evolve past that or develop some bullet proof coping mechanism to eradicate it. That’s one of the key reasons why all past attempts (not understanding it fully) to tame such integral facet went bust sooner or later so far. Actually, as we know many religious movements had to incorporate a compassionate balancing pillar to some extent in their believe system also..

    • worldofhanumanotg
      worldofhanumanotg says:

      Actually, several Fallada’s novels were developed into stage plays, movies, and tv mini series.., West / East Germany and Czechoslovakian productions notably..

      https://image.pmgstatic.com/cache/resized/w663/files/images/film/photos/000/178/178407_6b47e8.jpg

  24. A new paper has been published in Nature on the Steppe conquest of Europe during the Bronze Age. (All Europeans are partly descended from Yamnaya, especially in the north.) Those were relatively simple days, when the expansion of one’s civilisation depended on the humble horse – and ultimately rested on the milk for which it was domesticated (in the Azov-Don region). How complicated life has got since then. Then again, Europe supported a population of about 10 million in the BA – 1/75th of the current population.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03798-4

    > Dairying enabled Early Bronze Age Yamnaya steppe

    Abstract

    During the Early Bronze Age, populations of the western Eurasian steppe expanded across an immense area of northern Eurasia. Combined archaeological and genetic evidence supports widespread Early Bronze Age population movements out of the Pontic–Caspian steppe that resulted in gene flow across vast distances, linking populations of Yamnaya pastoralists in Scandinavia with pastoral populations (known as the Afanasievo) far to the east in the Altai Mountains1,2 and Mongolia3. Although some models hold that this expansion was the outcome of a newly mobile pastoral economy characterized by horse traction, bulk wagon transport4,5,6 and regular dietary dependence on meat and milk5, hard evidence for these economic features has not been found. Here we draw on proteomic analysis of dental calculus from individuals from the western Eurasian steppe to demonstrate a major transition in dairying at the start of the Bronze Age. The rapid onset of ubiquitous dairying at a point in time when steppe populations are known to have begun dispersing offers critical insight into a key catalyst of steppe mobility. The identification of horse milk proteins also indicates horse domestication by the Early Bronze Age, which provides support for its role in steppe dispersals. Our results point to a potential epicentre for horse domestication in the Pontic–Caspian steppe by the third millennium BC, and offer strong support for the notion that the novel exploitation of secondary animal products was a key driver of the expansions of Eurasian steppe pastoralists by the Early Bronze Age.

    Main

    …. Our study of dental calculus from the Eneolithic site of Botai to the east, where early horse milking has been suggested by lipid analysis (albeit equivocally44), did not yield milk proteins. Although two samples are insufficient for drawing broad conclusions, this finding does not support widespread milk consumption at the site13,45,46. However, two calculus samples from Early Bronze Age individuals of the Pontic–Caspian region do provide evidence for the consumption of horse milk. Combined with archaeogenetic evidence15 that places the Botai horses on a different evolutionary trajectory than the domesticated DOM2 E. caballus lineage, this finding—if backed up by further sampling and analysis—would seem to firmly shift the focus of sustained early horse domestication on the Eurasian steppe to the Pontic–Caspian region. So far, the oldest horse specimens that carry the DOM2 lineage date to between 2074 to 1625 calibrated years BC, at which time the lineage is archaeologically attested in present-day Russia, Romania and Georgia15. Our identification of—to our knowledge—the earliest horse milk proteins yet identified on the steppe or anywhere else reveals the presence of domestic horses in the western steppe by the Early Bronze Age, which suggests that the region (where the first evidence for horse chariots later emerged at about 2000 BC47) may have been the initial epicentre for domestication of the DOM2 lineage during the late fourth or third millennium BC.

    Overall, our findings offer strong support to the notion of a secondary products revolution48,49 in the Eurasian steppe by the Early Bronze Age. This change in subsistence economy, indicated by dietary stable isotopes in human bones as well as by proteomics, was accompanied by the widespread abandonment of Eneolithic riverine settlement sites, the appearance of kurgan cemeteries in the previously unexploited arid plateaus between the river valleys, and the inclusion of wheeled vehicles and occasional horse bones in Yamnaya graves. At the same time, the steppe Yamnaya population expanded westward into Europe and eastward to the Altai Mountains (a range of 6,000 km)1,3,50. Although we cannot offer direct insight into the question of horse riding or traction on the basis of our data, evidence for milked horses certainly makes horse domestication more likely, and may indicate that horses had a role in the spread of Yamnaya groups. The triad of animal traction, dairying and horse domestication appears to have had an instrumental role in transforming Pontic–Caspian economies and opening up the broader steppe to human habitation by the Early Bronze Age. If some or even all of these elements were present before the Bronze Age, it is only from this latter period that we witness their intensive and sustained exploitation amongst numerous groups. Although other factors will no doubt also have been important, the emergence of more mobile, pastoralist societies adapted to survival on the cold and arid steppe—where horses may have opened up snow-covered pasturage for other animals18, and milk would have provided a sustained source of protein, nutrients and fluids—was undoubtedly critical to the expansion of Bronze Age pastoralists such the Yamnaya groups.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Interesting. Quite a few populations are lactose intolerant. Northern Europeans seem to be some of the exceptions. If dairy was important to getting enough nutrients of the right type, I imagine that the lactose intolerant got “selected out” in that part of the world.

      The studies that I have seen seem to suggest that vegans have below-average life expectancies. There may be a selection problem in this. The people who chose to became vegan (and were included in studies) may have been people who had huge underlying problems. Or, at least some of the vegans may have had too low weight. Very low weight seems to adversely affect life expectancy, especially among older people. Any infection or other illness can be too much for the body to handle.

      • Lidia17 says:

        You don’t want Remdesivir; it’s a Fauci concoction that destroys your kidneys. Destroyed kidneys increase fluid in lungs and tax the heart. Oops!

        “we detected a statistically significant pharmacovigilance signal of nephrotoxicity associated with remdesivir”
        https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33340409/

        Did Fauci knowingly fast-track approval of drug with deadly COVID-like side effects?

        … Remdesivir was one of four drugs in a clinical trial for Ebola in 2018 and was dropped from the study before it was over, after a safety review revealed that it had the highest death rate of the drugs being tested, Bryan Ardis said in a videotaped interview by an international legal group that is investigating human rights violations by governments during the COVID-19 pandemic.

        The Ebola clinical trial was sponsored by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), of which Fauci is director. As one of then-President Trump’s chief medical advisers on COVID-19, he must have known that remdesivir had a 50% death rate, compared to 35% of two other drugs in the trial – and that serious side-effects, including at least one death, led to the drug being pulled and research on it abandoned.

        “Did Anthony Fauci know about remdesivir’s death rate? Oh, you better believe it. And now he was going to push this on the masses,” Ardis told the Corona Investigative Committee, organized by German-American lawyer Reiner Fuellmich who specializes in the prosecution of fraudulent global corporations.

        Ardis said that Fauci cited only the Ebola trial and a study from remdesivir’s manufacturer, Gilead Sciences Inc., on just 53 COVID-19 patients, when he chose it as the leading contender to fight the pandemic virus.

        https://pharmaceuticalfraud.com/2021-08-09-fauci-fast-tracked-approval-of-dangerous-drug.html

        =====
        You don’t want vancomycin, either (another part of the canonical protocol in the US)… It also harms the kidneys.

        “Vancomycin is really not the issue in and of itself. Insert any nephrotoxic drug into the equation and you would get the same result. Nephrotoxicity is possible with any renally eliminated drug, but when added to other potentially nephrotoxic drugs your chances of having issues goes up dramatically.

        “The sepsis protocols are truly an issue. Many providers don’t fucking think anymore and simply start picking the standard plans based on symptoms. Multi-organ system failure….welp, must be septic. Vancomycin and zosyn (nephrotoxic together) are added the the remdesivir and the problems really begin. CRRT is a sure bet and thus the death spiral begins. All for a non-bacterial issue that antibiotics wouldn’t help anyway. The hospitals have known remdesivir is shit from the get go but the greedy fucks can’t resist the extra 20% covid bucks for using it. Sad.

        “Don’t go to the hospital if you can avoid it. There are options available that work.”
        https://greatawakening.win/p/13zMilzKDv/my-nursing-friend-stands-by-this/c/

        Deviation from the protocol may mean no federal funding. Something to look into.

        • Lidia17 says:

          Oops! This should belong to a comment further up!
          Hope nobody takes Remdesivir…

        • djerek says:

          Monoclonal antibodies are generally a big $ and fairly dangerous type of drug. They’re mostly used to treat autoimmune conditions and the cost can run into $1000s per monthly dose and require controlled injection inside a hospital depending on which one. They can be used for anything from rheumatoid arthritis to Crohn’s disease to Lupus.

    • Kowalainen says:

      The Yamnaya doesn’t fsck around when push comes to shove. Well, now that I think of it. They’ve all become self entitled princesses of IC these days shoving their obese asses around in oh-so-convenient fossil burners.

      Except for me of course. I’m busy cranking the pedals and chucking in the oats. It’s suck and oh noes in a good kind of way.

  25. Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
    Ed says:

    Elon likes solar

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcvLgzg9WE0

    Quick someone tell the Finns.

    • kulmthestatusquo
      kulmthestatusquo says:

      Dennis will be ecstatic

      That aside, we can only do so much with solar because the battery tech is still not there

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Interesting! When I corresponded with Eric Chaisson years ago, he gave me a fairly similar view.

      The first thing that is a problem is the fact that we are not being given until “the end of the century” to solve our problem. Fossil fuels are in short supply already. We need a solution now, not 70 or 80 years from now.

      The second thing is that electricity doesn’t directly replace fossil fuels. There are a lot of things, including roads and synthetic fabrics, that we cannot make with electricity.

      I have doubts about the 1 mile battery. Does this include storage for overnight, or to make up for the difference in the seasons? I would presume it is basically overnight, or slightly longer, assuming that in the southern area chosen, seasons and clouds don’t matter.

      Transforming all of our existing devices that operate on oil to electricity would be a big problem. All of the batteries for these would be another problem.

      Electricity transmission and maintenance would also be a problem.

      • nikoB says:

        Big cables between parts of the planet to share the electricity around will solve that problem.

        Oh until it catches fire that is.

        • Kowalainen says:

          Yup, subsea and underground cables can catch fire. Oh, wait, no they don’t for the blatantly obvious reasons.

          Oil refineries and pipelines never catch fire. Because… Petrochemicals doesn’t burn, rite. Oh, wait, they’re supposed to burn.

          Watch the HVDC transmission lines get slapped down all across the planet at an accelerating rate once the CEP is completed.

          MÖÄR VÅXXĪNG for the consumerist herd. Yay!1!!2!!

  26. Xabier says:

    The MSM does get it right sometimes, as in this headline from a newspaper here:

    ‘Boris’s brutal cull, to deliver Britain’s future’.

    Well, they said it……

    (I like it too! lots of love, Klaus).

  27. Rodster says:

    If this is true, people need to pay for this. So, it is possible, if it can be confirmed that 30,305 may have died within 21 days of taking the Covid 19 vaccine. Unfortunately we now live in a world where people don’t question everything but accept what they are being told by those in charge, who should be looking out for the wellbeing of its citizens.

    https://theexpose.uk/2021/09/15/30k-people-died-within-21-days-of-having-a-covid-19-vaccine-in-england/

  28. “Essar Oil UK, which owns the site that supplies about one-sixth of Britain’s road transport fuels, is in renewed talks with HM Revenue & Customs about its financial position…

    “Essar Oil UK, which has owned the vast industrial site in north-west England for a decade, is grappling with a funding shortfall potentially running to hundreds of millions of pounds.”

    https://news.sky.com/story/stanlow-refinery-owner-faces-new-financial-crunch-as-hmrc-deadline-looms-12410388

    • “The company behind the Pembroke oil refinery in south-west Wales slumped to a £282.4m loss last year as the pandemic hammered the market for crude.

      “Valero Energy, a UK-based subsidiary of Fortune 500 behemoth Valero, tumbled into the red from a 2019 profit of £247.7m as oil demand and prices fell…

      “The figures lay bare the financial hit of the pandemic across the international refining industry, with at least two plants in Europe closing and two units mothballed at Petroineos’s Grangemouth refinery in Scotland.”

      https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/09/05/pembroke-oil-refinery-plunges-loss-pandemic-hits-demand/

      • “Royal Dutch Shell Plc signed off on plans for a large biofuels plant in the Netherlands, stepping up investment in cleaner energy as it retreats from refining crude oil…

        “Shell is reducing its number of refineries, which totaled 14 in October last year, to just a handful of energy and chemicals parks.”

        https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-16/shell-plans-dutch-biofuels-plant-in-retreat-from-refining-crude

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Biofuels use huge amounts of land that could be used for growing crops that humans might eat. They are not a sensible solution to anything.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        If refineries go broke, the UK will have to try to import refined oil products from elsewhere.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Indirectly, this is a refinery that is having financial problems. I would assume that the problem is a squeeze between (a) what it costs to buy crude oil plus the cost of operating the refinery and (b) the price consumers are able to pay. The selling price of refined products is not high enough. Customers such as trucking companies and airlines cannot afford to buy fuels for their vehicles at high prices. Their overhead costs are becoming a larger and larger share of total costs.

      • Artleads says:

        tRUCKERS MIGHT once HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PAY FOR THEIR FUEL AT CURRENT PRICES, SO SOMETHING MUST HAVE CHANGED TO ACCOUNT FOR WHY THEY CAN’T AFFORD FUEL NOW. (caplok error)
        It’s the “what has changed” that I find consistently absent in this explanation. Whatever it is would benefit by being organically connected with increasing cost of fuel production. Is it entropy? Limits of our social organization? How big of a picture does it affect?

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          The price of oil is up in the past year. They may be driving with more half-empty loads, making the operation less efficient. Or they may be driving only one way with goods, and one way empty. Even stopping at a borders for a while makes the operation less efficient.

  29. Tim Groves says:

    A Final Warning To Humanity From Former Pfizer Chief Scientist Michael Yeadon

    The way the PCR tests are being carried out is fraudulent.

    The lockdowns are irrational and completely ineffective and probably killing lots of people.

    Many of the other scientists he knows agree with him in private but are not willing to say anything in public because “it’s been intimated that the authorities in the universities don’t want us to challenge the government narrative or that of its advisors.”

    “But the reason I’m commenting is because I believe it’s not just my life but, more importantly, that that of our children and grandchildren that is being stolen from us by a systematic process of fear and control that’s going to culminate in some very horrible times, and I’m desperate to wake you up. So when your government lies to you once or twice, you are probably quite used to politicians occasionally telling white lies and we kind of like them. But when they lie to you about something technical, something you can check, and they do so repeatedly over months, and they do it over many many elements of the same event. Please, you’ve got to believe me. They’re not telling the truth. And if they’re not telling the truth, that means there’s something else afoot, and I’m here today that there is something bad happening, and if you don’t pay attention you will soon lose any chance to do anything about it. Don’t say you won’t warned.”

    We are now standing at the very gates of hell, say’s Yeadon.

    • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
      Ed says:

      YES! I fear we are to homogenized to act out. His lamp like my lamp his desk like my desk, his bookcase, his button down shirt, his glasses, his hair cut, we the sheep are clones of passivity.

    • Appears this health crisis is a money gravy train for many in corporate/government sector and they are milking it all for it’s worth. At my place of work, most are sold on the vaxx and
      Hear comments like, this will never end unless everyone gets the vaccine.
      The Company is pressuring us to get the jab and provided an incentive by offering an extra vacation day and gift card…. Got till the end of the month and they hope team members will take advantage of it. Prepared for the worse when next month measures will be placed to punish those of us not being team players and will harassed by penalties and other ultimatums to push obey….very stressful.
      I made a number of comments, so they are aware of my stance….being silent now until push comes to shove. Know it does not matter what is shown… similar to the Henrik Ibsen play An Enemy of the People…which btw he intended as a comedy…

      • Xabier says:

        All the best to you Herbie: it sounds absolutely awful, and you are very much appreciated here, for what it’s worth.

        A gift card: I hope for several million $’s, what else could compensate for the risk?

        I am now very grateful for being self-employed, although it’s just a postponement of my no doubt brutal collision with the New Normal at some point…..

        • Fast Eddy says:

          I wonder when someone will show up for work… only to be told they are fired because they are not injected… walk back to their car… lock – load… return to the office… and carry out a mini Dien Bien Phu

      • Artleads says:

        Herbie, I understand that one of the best means to confront this horror is to walk off the job. I can’t suggest how to pay your rent/mortgage (other than (if you can stand it) taking in a couple extra people to help pay for these things. My extreme aversion to spending money enables me to stretch small amounts of money a very long way. If you decide to do it the hard way and walk, and you need help affording it, I am willing to help with designs and other recommendations. Best wishes,

      • Not too sure I will be in my job for much longer either. Over the last two days we have had two emails to all staff (just over 5000 including honorary academics) from different members of senior management, pushing very aggressively pro-vaxx, get-vaxxed propaganda. Or get tested 2-3 times a week. If I am not ill, I am not getting tested. I will be doing neither, so if push comes to shove I am offski. That seems to be where we are headed, at my uni. Will be interesting to see what happens to people after they get their third shot, and most will. The experiment continues.

        • Yorchichan says:

          Make them sack you rather than resigning. At least that way you have a chance of legal redress.

        • Lidia17 says:

          Sorry, I wrote “Mirror” instead of “Minority”.
          Here are some links to potential “no vax” employment opportunities, If not in line with your needs, maybe it will help someone else:

          https://patriots.win/p/12kFdrpvRj/x/c/4JEVhKwsn7A

          I bet there will be more to come like this. Even on the downslope, smart employers will want smart workers if they hope to be nimble as we surf the last wave.

        • Xabier says:

          I fully agree, Minority: we really have to take a stand on repeated tests of perfectly well people as much as vaxxes, as they are now being used as a form of coercion.

          It should surely be enough to concede to wearing a mask at work – after all, the narrative said they work, didn’t it?

          If one said ‘I’ll mask up, hand sanitise and observe a 6ft distance, etc, ‘ wouldn’t that make being sacked unfair?

          Unfortunately, universities seem to have bought in fully to this irrational cult.

          Good luck to you!

      • Lidia17 says:

        Herbie, Mirror, and others who are facing gene-therapy mandates in the workplace: here’s a list of some (US) resources I came across:

        =====
        From Telegram:

        We recently compiled a list of law firms that you may call if you believe your rights are being infringed upon by your employer, school, college, or any group that discriminates against you for not complying with their vaccine or mask mandates.

        Liberty Counsel https://lc.org/

        Liberty Institute https://www.libertyinstitute.org/about/faq

        Pacific Justice Institute https://www.secure.pacificjustice.org/site/SPageNavigator/contact_us.html

        Advocates For Faith and Freedom https://faith-freedom.com/

        Alliance Defending Freedom https://adflegal.org/about-us

        National Legal Foundation https://nationallegalfoundation.org/

        Thomas More Law Center https://www.thomasmore.org/

        Thomas More Society https://thomasmoresociety.org/

        Christian Legal Society https://www.christianlegalsociety.org/

        American Center for Law and Justice https://aclj.org/

        Center for Law and Religious Freedom https://www.clsreligiousfreedom.org/about-center

        Christian Attorneys of America https://christianattorneysofamerica.com/

        Christian Law Association https://www.christianlaw.org/

        National Association of Christian Lawmakers https://christianlawmakers.com/

        Pacific Legal Foundation https://pacificlegal.org/

        ======
        #KnowYourRights

        Employer’s Mandating Vaccinations as a condition for employment?

        Sidney Powell Post When you hear that EEOC guidance says “your employer can require you to get a vaccine,” this is false/ mistaken: EUAs have to have the Option to Refuse and the right to Informed Consent for EUAs. The EEOC’s guidance updated on May 28, 2021, only states that “federal EEO laws do not prevent an employer from requiring all employees physically entering the workplace to be vaccinated…”[1] It does not address 21 USCS § 360bbb-3, which relates to EUAs and the option to refuse.
        This is called a word game or word salad.

        There is Potential Liability on Employers or Universities that Mandate Vaccines if an Employee or Student suffers any Side Effects or Death from a mandatory EUA vaccine.

        See DefendingtheRepublic.org/covid

        Source Post https://t.me/SidneyPowell/906

        Three minute vid from Defending The Republic, Attorney at Law, Julia Haller
        https://rumble.com/vi1pxp-can-employers-require-you-to-take-the-covid-injection.html

        ‘Form Examplars’ for you to use or to consult with an attorney.
        The embedded links are to the forms found on DefendingTheRepublic.org.

        Assumption of Liability – in the case of mandatory vaccinations to retain employment or for other work or school related benefits, consider to demand that the employer or school have an authorized representative sign the assumption of liability agreement. A refusal to sign this will make more clear your right to refuse the jab to the organization pressuring you. Liability Assumption Form

        Religious exemption – in the case of mandatory vaccinations to retain employment or for other work or school related benefits, if you have a religious basis to be exempt, consider the drafts provided here and if your basis for an exemption differs, draft your own, or have an attorney draft a version using these examples but consistent with your religious reason. Protestant Vaccine Exemption Form Catholic Vaccine Exemption Form

        America’s Fronline Doctors Legal Eagle Dream Team
        “”America’s Frontline Doctors has officially launched the Legal Eagle Dream Team, and we intend to bring lawsuits across the country to challenge the constitutionality of COVID-19 mandates and restrictions.

        Learn more: https://www.americasfrontlinedoctors.org/legal/legal-eagle-dream-team “”

        Source Post w/Video https://t.me/AmericasFrontlineDoctors/95

        DOUG BILLINGS- Letter Templates
        • Mask letter template for adults • Mask letter template for children in school • Employee letter addressing discriminatory policies • Active Military letter for the jab • Vaccine public letter • Employee letter to company requiring the jab • Forms to Universities requiring the jab • Notice of Liability to schools • Notice of liability to vacinator

        SOURCE https://dougbillings.us/karen-kingston/#LetterTemplates

        Last, Do not quit your job. Another option is to tell your employer you’re not refusing it. You’re deferring until the clinical trials are over in 2 years & the safety data is analyzed & available so you can exercise “Informed consent”. If anything, let them fire you. You can claim wrongful termination as a last case scenario.

        Lin Wood Provided S. Powell link.

        https://krakensreleased.com/

        SOURCE POST https://t.me/c/1369451500/473

        OTHER INFORMATION/AMMUNITION

        A. Forced vaccinations violate:

        The Nuremberg War Crimes Code.
        The Geneva Convention.
        The UN Charter.
        The international Criminal Court Laws.
        The US Constitution.
        The Declaration of Geneva (the original, not the substitution put in by the Deep state)
        B. LIBERTY COUNCIL ACTION

        There is ALOT of information in here. Too deep for me to dive.

        https://lcaction.org/vaccine

        This one specifically should help with college.

        https://www.lcaction.org/Site%20Images/Resources/Memo-reCOVIDVaccinationMandate-May2021.pdf

        C. VAX CHOICE- How to File a Private Criminal Complaint

        https://www.vaxxchoice.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Combined-Criminal-Complaint-w-Instructions-for-Filing-1.pdf
        ========

        These are messy grabs but maybe there is something in the pile you can scavenge.

        This is is inarguable, for example:
        “Do not quit your job. Another option is to tell your employer you’re not refusing it. You’re deferring until the clinical trials are over in 2 years & the safety data is analyzed & available so you can exercise “Informed consent”.

        The “approved” Comirnity (not even avail. in the US) is not the same substance as what they are still injecting people with under the EUA (which one would think would no longer prevail given that a competing substance has been approved, even if it’s the “emergency” substance’s kissing cousin).

        We are really in a post-legal world.

        All the best of luck to those forced into this evil situation.

        • “Do not quit your job. Another option is to tell your employer you’re not refusing it. You’re deferring until the clinical trials are over in 2 years & the safety data is analyzed & available so you can exercise “Informed consent.”

          I do appreciate this approach. However, some employers have begun suspending workers without pay until they’re in compliance with the employer’s vaccine mandate. United Airlines is one high-profile example. It’s an easy out for employers who are looking to avoid the negative press and legal consequences associated with firing “unvaccinated” employees.

          • Djerek says:

            Clearly it’s entirely coincidental that the airline industry is in need of massive contraction regardless.

          • Lidia17 says:

            AZ, I think the situation would depend on the labor laws in one’s country or state. I don’t think companies can get away with that sort of treatment in all jurisdictions. Still, whatever one’s situation, it’s worth at least an initial attempt at fighting back / non-compliance.. you never know unless you try.

            Here’s a funny story:
            A couple of weeks ago, I wrote up my objections to mask mandates in our state court system, as I’d been called to jury duty. I am a weirdo who actually liked jury duty, and I told them I didn’t want to get out of serving… just that there was no Evidence for masks being effective, and that to wear a mask would be demonstrably at odds with the general intent of court proceedings, as I would be confirming a personal disregard for Material Evidence, basing my decisions on fear, coercion, or a desire to go along with the herd.

            Of course they weren’t going to get rid of the anti-scientific mask mandates for the court, so they not only exempted me from *this* jury service, but for all jury service going forward forever!!

            Such is our clown world.

            Anyway, you never know unless you try.
            I have read of several firms that backed down on mandates once a critical mass of employees resisted.

      • MM says:

        Only when I took all hammers down on me I will be forged
        “Hart wie Kruppstahl”

        Bend then I will never again.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      If hell is filled with loose hot women… techno discos… and high grade gear…. then let’s open the gates!

      Mike is such a prude

    • Mike Roberts
      Mike Roberts says:

      One thing he’s right on is the strange way that the UK defines COVID-19 deaths. He doesn’t seem to be right about much else. Yes, I know he’s a former chief scientist of one aspect of Pfizer research but that doesn’t mean he’s right about everything he says.

      He says you can check a lot of stuff so I did. He says almost everyone else in authority is lying to you and pleads, “you’ve got to believe me”. Why should we? Because he says so?

      I’m sure he is “anti unsafe medicines” but I’m also fairly sure that most health scientists and practitioners are just the same. His implication is that everyone else is not (except those he’s spoken to who agree with him but won’t speak out for fear of losing grants).

      I checked a few things but stopped listening at 34 minutes.

      He says no-one mentions the false positive rate of PCR tests but that is not true. Here in NZ, that was mentioned several times in public updates during the first wave. He says there is no evidence for mask efficacy. There is. He says that there is no evidence that asymptomatic people can spread the virus. There is (though it may not be proof). He says lockdowns don’t work but NZ, and some other countries, has shown they can work.I don’t know where he gets his data, since he doesn’t seem to trust official data, and yet he claims that COVID-19 is not much more deadly than influenza. I can’t counter that to his satisfaction because he doesn’t believe case figures or death figures. He says that variants are 99.7% the same as the original virus, so can’t escape the immune memory but that is just argument from incredulity.

      Just why he’s saying all this is unknowable. Why governments and health experts are lying to us about everything is unknowable though Yeadon claims it’s some nebulous thing called “control.” But there are many places around the world where countries have managed to get to grips with the virus and have given their residents an almost normal life for most of this. I probably agree with him about vaccine passports but there seems to be some wavering on that, from governments.

      Anyway, please do check what he’s saying. If you can find anything he’s lying about then take his advice – if he’d lie to you about that, why should you believe him on anything else?

  30. nielscolding
    Niels Colding says:

    I am so sad that fast Eddie is polluting Gail’s thoughts. I sincerely hope that this place Will regain its mental balance. I trust the Danish authorities amd am very happy with my 2 jabs

    • Xabier says:

      FE has, bizarrely, become the voice of reason here. It is black humour: a bit rough sometimes, but not ‘pollution’.

      Why on earth does anyone trust the authorities? It passes comprehension. It simply isn’t rational – they are after all flawed human beings, even setting aside talk of Plans and plots.

      By the way, I used to trust, more or less – then I woke up.

      Widen your sources of information, or stay asleep: the choice is yours……

      Now, just think, would your Viking ancestors (which we share of course) ever have trusted the authorities? I think not!

      All the best,

      Xabier

    • Tim Groves says:

      I don’t care about the different thoughts
      Different thoughts are good for me
      Up in arms and chaste and whole
      All God’s children took their toll

    • Sam says:

      It’s not the f.e comments that bother me it’s just the overwhelming comments about Covid that bug me! I want more economic talk and and energy talk. If we have 15 years of this same old same…or do we have less than 2 years before things really start to go. That’s what I want to know and by reading the tea leaves ie.. the collective consciousness on here helps. I just have to wade through the weeds of Covid diatribe to find the gems

      • fillmore74
        Replenish says:

        Good point on sifting through material to find the gems. My understanding is that Covid restrictions and coercive pharma solutions are the Elite central planner’s latest effort to position/protect themselves, prevent imminent collapse, allocate scarce resources, and mitigate social unrest through digital transformation, managed economic contraction and desirable and humane methods of population control.

        As for FE style sharing, if you listen to a live interview with people like Harry Vox and Kerri Mullis who warn about mis-using the PCR test to push global health agendas &/or the impending roll out Lockstep a top-down, bio security state you will hear a range of emotions, suspicions and harsh accusations. Its a real threat gained from insight and experience that is easily lost on many of us. We need to be shocked out of complacency.

        Anonymous sharing by the trickster archetype can draw out people’s true nature like the wounded bird draws out a predator. Its one way of moderating and is entertaining to me. At some point, I expect to be the brunt of the trickster’s dark humor and this keeps me on my toes to be aware of all sides of the argument. When the collapse happens I can use the training to navigate people, places abd things that I encounter that have emerged from the thin veneer of civilization.

        • Artleads says:

          “managed economic contraction and desirable and humane methods of population control”

          Would this include tricking (“excess”) people into showers that emit poison gas?

      • worldofhanumanotg
        worldofhanumanotg says:

        natgas smartgas, collapsniks, limits to growth, surplus, doomerism rings eternal, serial worriers, premature collapse, triage, balkanization, peak demand, general Charles deGrowth, WEFers and lepers, ..

        we have been debating it all through and through, up and down (here and at other sites), and frankly I can’t answer your question, I just don’t know, it has been progressing way slower than most predicted (at least in context of observing from the bucolic ~core IC *vantage point); while new data on resource / enviro, conceptual understandings, evaluations and concepts emerged, I guess the future will definitely bring nasty d/d or y/y thresholds of very time pressed series of challenges (as always in history) but that’s not necessarily the abrupt end in itself, ..


        * dwellers of bombed out ME regions or other swiftly impoverished peoplez from around the ~2.5-3rd world would certainly disagree about the notion of that much slow(er) collapse

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Covid is energy talk… but a CovIDIOT does not realize that because a CovIDIOT is an IDIOT….

        That’s why CovIDIOTS agree to be injected with an experiment… they are IDIOTS….

        Now where were we… ah yes…. the Boosters… have you had yours?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Think of our current problem with COVID and the vaccines and the pharmaceutical Industry as parallel to our earlier problem with the pharmaceutical industry, pain relievers, hospital ratings, and the opioid crisis.

      Back a few years ago, hospitals and doctors thought that their ratings would be better if they asked each patient to rate their pain rating on a scale of 1 to 10. If the pain level was at all elevated, they offered pain medication. Opioid makers presented their pain medication as being ideal for this purpose. Doctors and hospitals handed out opioids, like candy. Opioid makers presented their pills as being non-addictive and safe.

      In fact, opioids did work, for a while. But then, people became addicted to them. The pills worked less and less well. People had to go to the black market to get them. They died of overdoses. They died of street drugs that they decided to take as alternatives.

      The long term effect of the opioids was terrible, but they made the opioid industry a huge amount of profits, for a short time. They have lost battles in the courts, but common citizens have been worse off for the experience.

      Now, we have a parallel problem with COVID-19 and the vaccines that purportedly solve the COVID-19 problem.

      When we first heard about COVID-19, we were told that it was a terrible pandemic that the vaccines would put an end to quickly. We were told that there were no effective treatments for the illness; we should turn to vaccines, as soon as they came out.

      Now, as we go along, we find that indeed, there are a lot of effective ways for preventing and treating COVID-19. In fact, it looks like there is no need to fill up hospitals and ICUs with COVID-19 patients. Cheap, effective treatments can be used on an outpatient basis. Death rates should be close to zero, without vaccines.

      For example, raising vitamin D levels and vitamin C levels seem to be helpful in preventing cases. Getting zinc into cells also seems to be helpful. Ivermectin is a cheap, thirty year old drug that has been found to be very helpful in treating COVID-19. If the disease gets to its later stages, it can be treated successfully as an allergic reaction, with antihistamines and steroids. https://soundcloud.com/webfix-incorp/the-covid-cure-a-new-paradigm

      It has also become apparent that the vaccines have multiple problems:
      (1) There are many bad reactions to them, some of them leading to death.
      (2) The vaccines become less and less effective over time, and as the virus mutates. It reminds a person of the way opioids become less and less effective for treating pain.
      (3) Patients need to keep coming back for more vaccinations.
      (4) Long term effects are not known, but may very well be detrimental to those taking the vaccine.
      (5) Vaccines don’t really stop the epidemic.
      (6) In fact, these vaccines, given in the height of epidemics, tend to cause more mutations, making the disease ever-harder to fight through vaccines.

      Regarding (5) the use of the vaccine doesn’t really stop epidemics. If the virus had not mutated (and didn’t mutate in the future), this might have been a possibility. But it turns out that people who receive the vaccine can still catch COVID-19, usually with very light cases. Unfortunately, they are still infectious. They can spread the illness to others, without realizing that they are even ill. We end up with a huge number of inadvertent spreaders of the disease.

      Regarding (6), the mutations, the current vaccines do not kill all the viruses. They simply kill the weaker ones. Giving the vaccine in the heat of an epidemic is particularly bad because it kills off the weaker virus variants, leaving the more virulent viruses to multiply. Over time, this leads to more virulent variants that are ever-harder to fight.

      These issues have become more evident over time, but they have not been explained clearly to the health care industry and to the people paying the high health care costs. Instead, public statements have been dominated by people like Anthony Fauci and Bill Gates who can make huge amounts of money for themselves and their organizations through the sale of COVID-19 vaccines.

      Hospitals and doctors have not been told about the cheap treatments available. They assume that the vaccines will help. Payers of hospital bills demand the vaccines, not realizing that in the long term, the vaccines make these hospital bills higher, not lower. President Biden doesn’t understand the problems he is enabling, either.

      The problem with moving toward a more rational approach to treating COVID-19 is that there is essentially no money to be made by big Pharma using cheap alternative treatments that keep people out of hospitals. Refusal to follow this alternative path needs to come from those outside the pharmaceutical industry.

      • Lidia17 says:

        The pseudo-vaxes and the opiates are proposed by the same characters.

      • Mike Roberts
        Mike Roberts says:

        When we first heard about COVID-19, we were told that it was a terrible pandemic that the vaccines would put an end to quickly.

        A disappointing comment, Gail. When we first heard about COVID-19, vaccines were a distant dream. Until quite late on last year, we were told a vaccine might be a year and a half, to two years away, if at all. So, when we first heard about the disease, we were told very little about vaccines. It wasn’t until quite a bit later that we were told vaccines might start to have an impact, but it wouldn’t be “quickly”. You’re right in the sense that vaccines have been mis-sold, since they first got approval to be used but let’s not alter the facts.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          You are right. Vaccines were a distant dream.

          What should have happened at an early date was a crash approach to figuring out what easy, cheap available “at home” treatments would work. But this was never even investigated.

          Instead, shutdowns were ordered. People were told to stay at home, away from everyone else. The dream of vaccines was sold as a future the solution. The only medication treatments that seemed to be of any interest were high-priced relatively new drugs.

        • Xabier says:

          Not at all Mike: from an early date effective vaccines were hinted at as the ONLY remedy, then promised as the only way ‘back to normal.’

          Cleverly, we were led to believe that a vaccine sometime in 2021 or even 2022 (horror!) might be the earliest possibility.

          In the meantime, fairly effective non-vaccine protocols were suppressed, derided or neglected, ( ‘No potions’ said Fauci) and large numbers of poor suckers were stuck on the death machines ie ventilators (this is mass murder, by the way).

          This was the only way to prepare the way for emergency-authorised ‘vaccines’, of course.

          And lo! In September 2020, they arrived! The ‘Technological Miracles’! Not only much earlier than expected, but ‘95% effective and totally safe’ , we were assured by The Scientists (TM).

          They shone their light upon us, and we exclaimed ‘Great is the Lord Fauci and wondrous his works!’

          Clearly, having been prepped for a long, long wait, in the shadow of the ‘terrible, terrible disease’, we were meant to fall over ourselves to get injected, to embrace the magical elixir, the ‘gift of life and hope’ without any hesitation or reflection.

          And that is why YOU, and all the other trusting dolts, rolled up your sleeves when you got that invitation letter or text.

          Propaganda, awfully clever, isn’t it?

          Now I’ve been kind enough to explain it to you, do you see how you’ve been played? These people are experts, an they did it well.

          But cheer up! There is still time to repent and join the sane, you can still avoid adding to those micro-clots with the boosters…….

          • worldofhanumanotg
            worldofhanumanotg says:

            As Jimmy Dore observed the rarely mentioned fact, Dr. Fausti pulls one of the highest salaries in the fed gov (apart from even larger “patent” fees) and there is the age factor also. Why on Earth already wealthy and powerful individuals have to scam so manically till the end.. instead of just chilling out in the sunset ? /Well, for one thing not everybody gets on their CV such deeds ever.. if you read the notes of Nuremberg psychiatrists the incarcerated blokes they examined were pretty proud of their job..

            • Xabier says:

              Money is always welcome, of course, but to nearly-defunct psychopaths like Fauci & Co. leaving such an imprint on the world must be so much more rewarding – the Triumph of the Will.

              They have also, through the WEF ‘ global leaders’ programme, cultivated their successors in every field – their true ideological heirs.

    • Really? Did you read the article Gail wrote previously on the Covid vaccines? It’s a very balanced well written article.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Actuaries seemed to like it, based on the ones who wrote to me complementing me on it.

    • eKnock says:

      Don’t be sad Mr. Codling. You’ve done a great job of sleuthing out the problem. THE PROBLEM is Fast Eddy. Fast Eddy has polluted the minds of millions and it will only get worse unless we stand up against this threat. We’ve had the War On Drugs and the war On Terror and now we need a War On Fast Eddy. Stand up for Anti-MindPollution. Support the War on Fast Eddy. Time is running out. Ole Joe is losing his patients. I saw him say it.
      Thanks for revealing the truth.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      When I first read this … I thought surely … this is intended as sarcasm….. because surely anyone who ‘thinks’ like this … would not dare to express such madness on OFW … (after seeing how norm and dunc have been exposed to epic ridicule now that we have evidence that these jabs are useless)….

      ‘I trust the Danish authorities amd am very happy with my 2 jabs’

      But then it occurred to me that you are serious. You are serious.

      Did you post a vaxxie on Facebook? Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha…. When do you get the Booster?

      You might be forgiven for getting jabbed because you were not aware of the deadly side effects… but the Booster? That takes some serious CovIDIOCY to sign up for that… instead of the free donut why not ask for a brain transplant …..

      I suspect your efforts to silence the Almighty Fast Eddy…. will fail.

      But please feel free to continue to post your delusional comments… and fuel the fire…

      • Xabier says:

        ‘Trusting the authorities’ is beyond all satire: much so it’s……. landed on the moon.’

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Like a child trusting the strange man who proffers candy…..

          CovIDIOCY….is essentially laziness… rather than think and decide for themselves.. it is so much easier to trust the government… to just ‘do what you are told’….

          We can also see this in the education system… rather than teach and discipline children they take the easy way out and shove a tablet in their hands with enthralling screen games that keep the vermin silent….. then they hand off all responsibility for properly raising the child to the teacher…

          Then when the teacher tries to discipline the vermin — the parents side with the vermin — compounding the problem

          The vast majority of people are MOREONS… in a perfect world the vaccines would be separating the gold from the worthless ore… and the MOREONS would be dumped in a slag heap.

  31. The Guardian opines today that the DUP has called ‘time’ on the UK, and it is hard to disagree. DUP is just about the worst thing that could have happened for ‘unionism’ in NI – hyper-sectarian nutters from a small fundamentalist church, who were always guaranteed to keep the NI statelet heavily divided and deeply dysfunctional.

    To cut to the present (which leaves an awful lot unsaid,) DUP insisted on the hardest possible Brexit, even though the majority in NI opposed Brexit in the first place, in the hope of imposing a hard border within Ireland and collapsing the GFA. They inevitably ended up with a sea border instead as there was zero chance of any EU deal, or any other, otherwise – they have all of the foresight of a gold fish (actually that is unfair on gold fish, which have better survival instincts than ‘DUPid’.)

    So DUP has collapsed in the polls, leaving ‘unionism’ split three ways and SF set for FM next year. First they dumped their leader Arlene in a hissy over the sea border, and they elected the ultra-fundamentalist Edwin ‘Potty’ Poots. They then dumped him, after Westminster imposed Irish language legislation, which DUP had agreed to long before anyway, and they elected Jeff D – who now intends to collapse the Stormont parliament – just because it ain’t working out for the DUP – and again in the hope of collapsing the GFA.

    Even the British establishment press now thinks that is ‘game over’ for NI. It had its chance for 100 years and it totally failed. DUP has done more for Irish unity than SF could ever have dreamed of accomplishing. The clock is now be ticking fast on an Irish referendum. SF may lead governments both south and north, come 2025, and that presumably would be the time to initiate the process. Westminster will likely be glad to see the back of NI.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/16/unionists-brexit-northern-ireland-dup-border

    > Unionists’ Brexit politicking has ensured Northern Ireland has no future

    Unionism saw in Brexit an opportunity to wreck the Good Friday agreement and get a hard border back. Instead, it is any prospect of the survival of Northern Ireland that has been demolished. Sir Jeffrey Donaldson admitted in an interview at the weekend that if Sinn Féin took the first minister’s post at Stormont, it would be a problem for unionists.

    The latest opinion poll showed Sinn Féin poised to be country’s largest party on 25%, with the DUP plummeting to 13%, now surpassed on the unionist side by the Ulster Unionist party (UUP) and Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV). Next year’s census will probably show that the Catholic community is now larger than the Protestant one. An election is due in the spring of 2022. This is the context in which we must view Donaldson’s threat to pull out of the executive, and his decision to stop co-operating with the Irish government in cross-border bodies. The protocol is a fig leaf, and one plucked from a tree the DUP and Boris Johnson planted.

    The Rev Ian Paisley used to refer to Martin McGuinness as “my deputy” when the DUP leader was the first minister and the Sinn Féiner was the deputy first minister. McGuinness indulged the old man: both roles are actually equal and represent the joint leadership of the Northern Ireland executive. But unionism, having had marginally the largest party electorally, has always held the first ministry, and clings to the vestigial delusion of dominance, glossing over the concept of power-sharing in mandatory coalition that was at the heart of the Good Friday agreement. The TUV has only one MLA at Stormont, but Jim Allister speaks forcefully for the past to which much of unionism longs to return – in the aformentioned poll, the party hit 14%, leapfrogging the DUP. He said any unionist leader who serves under a Sinn Féin first minister would be “a stooge”.

    Donaldson chose to make what was billed as a landmark speech on the eve of the visit to Northern Ireland last week of the European Commission’s vice-president, Maroš Šefčovič. According to the former DUP leader Peter Robinson, the speech would “define the position of unionism for decades to come and with it the future of the union”. On becoming leader in June, Donaldson was meant to be the progressive face of the DUP who would turn the party around to face forwards. But having called the protocol “the most serious constitutional crisis in Northern Ireland since our formation a century ago”, he offered no ideas as to how to save his beloved country, other than threatening to collapse its government. He implied his grand gesture would bring about an election; in reality that is the prerogative of the secretary of state, who might just not bother.

    …. The DUP, baulking at the potential of a first minister coming from what used to be known as “the other sort”, has retreated back to sectarianism, the frailty of its commitment to power-sharing exposed. The Irish government, in deference to unionist sensitivities, and alarmed itself by the rise of Sinn Féin in the Republic, is keeping a polite distance from talk of a border poll. But soon it will be inevitable. There will be no “decades to come” for the union. Donaldson said in his speech he would not play the blame game. No wonder.

  32. Malcopian says:

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2021/sep/17/are-we-eating-ourselves-to-extinction

    EXTRACT:

    The source of much of the world’s food – seeds – is mostly in the control of just four corporations; half of all the world’s cheeses are produced with bacteria or enzymes manufactured by a single company; one in four beers drunk around the world is the product of one brewer; from the US to China, most global pork production is based around the genetics of a single breed of pig; and, perhaps most famously, although there are more than 1,500 different varieties of banana, global trade is dominated by just one, the Cavendish.

    Our current food system is contributing to the destruction of the planet: one million plant and animal species are now threatened with extinction; we clear swathes of forests to plant immense monocultures and then burn through millions of barrels of oil a day to make fertilisers to feed them. We are farming on borrowed time.

    =========

    [The writer then proposes how to turn this around. Too late the hero, I think. 2021 is turning into a disaster of collapsed supply chains and lost harvests. I also expect that the Klymit insurgency will take us away before 2030. We will remember 2021 as the last of the golden years when we (or most of us) in the West still had everything we needed.]

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This over-specialization is indeed a problem. We then plant acres of mono crops, and treat them with the same chemicals. Insects and other pathogens quickly evolve that lead to kill off this overspecialized product.

      The idea of vaccinating everyone seems to have some similarities. With universal vaccination, the virus just needs to mutate to avoid the fake antibodies provided by the vaccine. This is a lot easier than mutating to avoid the natural antibodies and related protection of other kinds.

      • Sam says:

        I agree wholeheartedly! Do you have a link for this so I can show my vaxer family?

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          This, of course, is a link to my statement above.
          https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/08/30/the-afghanistan-fiasco-and-todays-high-level-of-conflict-reflect-an-energy-problem/comment-page-12/#comment-314470

          I am not sure I have anything that states this very succinctly. We know that natural antibodies protect much better than other antibodies.

          https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.19.21262111v1

          Large-scale study of antibody titer decay following BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine or SARS-CoV-2 infection

          In vaccinated subjects, antibody titers decreased by up to 40% each subsequent month while in convalescents they decreased by less than 5% per month. Six months after BNT162b2 vaccination 16.1% subjects had antibody levels below the seropositivity threshold of <50 AU/mL, while only 10.8% of convalescent patients were below <50 AU/mL threshold after 9 months from SARS-CoV-2 infection.

          Conclusions This study demonstrates individuals who received the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA vaccine have different kinetics of antibody levels compared to patients who had been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus, with higher initial levels but a much faster exponential decrease in the first group.

          https://twitter.com/Forest1forTrees/status/1426088182114832387
          Dr David Bauer
          Francis Crick Institute

          2 doses of Phyza jab lowers neutralising antibodies 5-6 fold.

          Essentially it wipes out your immune system making you dependent on booster shots in perpetuity.

          Also: The surface area of the spike is sufficiently small compared to that of the total virus, it is much easier for the virus to mutate away from the small spike area.

          • Alex says:

            Is having one’s cake and eating it superior to just eating it? Yes. Is comparing these two alternatives fair? No.

            The primary reason (and probably the only reason in a rational world) for vaccinating an individual against covid is their fear that the actual infection would kill them or make them seriously ill. We cannot say to an old or immunocompromised person that they should better get infected by the real thing because it will give them 6x better immunity than the “fake” vaccine. They simply cannot be sure they would make it.

            The conclusion made in the tweet (“2 doses of Phyza jab lowers neutralising antibodies 5-6 fold. Essentially it wipes out your immune system making you dependent on booster shots in perpetuity.”) is pure vaccinemongering nonsense.

  33. Alex says:

    Yesterday I was near a parking lot on the outskirts, where the city transitions into a forest. There was a mother (maskless) with her little daughter hopping around in a face mask.

    Mother: “Put in down! Put in down! Put it on your arm!”
    Daughter: “No.”

    Sad state of affairs.

    • Alex says:

      “Put it down”, not “Putin down.”

    • Xabier says:

      O know, it’s lamentable.

      There’s a boy here in this village, about 12 I’d say, who walks about in a mask all the time, even on a bight sunny day with no one around.

      And then there are the Masked Families.

      As an experiment, I’m going to say something the next time I see a small masked child. It’s abuse, nothing less.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This is a chart I made, comparing cumulative deaths for a number of places that did not try to stop all transmission.

      https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Cumulative-COVID-deaths-for-several-countries-at-Sept-14-1024×599.png

      In order, from highest to lowest, it comes out as follows:

      Brazil
      United Kingdom
      United States
      European Union
      South Africa
      Sweden
      Israel
      Norway
      Japan

      Sweden is doing somewhat better than most other European countries. I did not include the death rates for Denmark and Finland on the chart, but I looked them up later. These death rates are far below Sweden’s, closer to the death rate of Norway. The comparison with nearby countries doesn’t make Sweden come out particularly well.

      Israel, despite its very high reported case count, does not have a very high death rate. There can be many reasons for this:
      (1) Vaccines are preventing high death rates in Israel
      (2) Health care system has been better about treating cases in Israel than elsewhere
      (3) Israel may be more zealous in reporting infected people than most other places.
      (4) Israel’s mix of patients does not include as many overweigh, Black patients that seem to have a high probability of dying.

      Regarding Sweden’s death rate, I would note that Vitamin D level seems to play a big role. Black people away from the equator are particularly at risk of dying. Eating cod liver oil (Norway) or fatty fish raises vitamin D levels. I am not sure about Sweden’t diet. There was a study earlier of vitamin D levels. I don’t remember that Sweden’s level was very high.

  34. Alex says:

    Everything that can go wrong will go wrong?

    “A fire in a subsea cable has dramatically reduced power imports from France until March, U.K.’s National Grid Plc said, deepening the energy crisis that threatens winter blackouts for millions. The timing couldn’t be worse. Before the fire, the U.K. was already experiencing a five-year low in spare winter capacity. Compound this with gas shortages and the lack of renewable energy sources, sending power prices on a record-breaking run. The country may experience grid chaos in the coming months.”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/fire-uk-france-subsea-power-cable-could-trigger-winter-blackouts

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I remember seeing something about this yesterday. Anything that can go wrong, will!

      • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
        Ed says:

        Is it random chance or a conspiracy?

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          It is too much dependence on complex solutions. If there were a lot of redundancy in the system, we would never notice the outage.

        • Xabier says:

          ‘Dark Winter.’

          Now, who predicted that……..?

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Orchestrated?

      Oh right … the Elders always advertise what they are doing on CNN… there are no secrets

  35. Xabier says:

    Supply-chain news from chatting to the owner of a bike shop here:

    1/ Still getting parts and bikes, but delivery dates can never be confirmed, so occasionally running out of items.

    2/ The importer of kids’ bikes for the Xmas market says they will only be getting 3,000 from China, instead of the 6,000 ordered.

    3/ Importer of the helmets he sells said the cost of a container had gone from $3k to $30k.

    Prices I paid for spare tyres, tubes and brakes were no higher than 2019.

    So, major disruption, but still functioning more or less…..

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I wonder how long bicycles will really “work.” There is always a need for spare parts. In order to keep bicycles working, it seems like it needs to be possible to build bicycles with only local materials. This may be possible in a few parts of the world (bamboo bikes, for example), but I am doubtful that it will work everywhere.

  36. Yoshua says:

    The first peer reviewed paper on Sars-Cov-2 being a lab leak after gain of function research.

    By Sirotkin & Sirotkin (Harvard2TBH)

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7435492/

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This is an article by a father and son team. As far as I can tell, neither of them is associated with an academic institution. Information for the father is given as a home address in Florida. The article will be included in a “Wiley Public Health Emergency Collection.” Thus, I expect it is not as hard to get into as a regular journal.

      From the abstract:

      “Unless the intermediate host necessary for completing a natural zoonotic jump is identified, the dual‐use gain‐of‐function research practice of viral serial passage should be considered a viable route by which the novel coronavirus arose. The practice of serial passage mimics a natural zoonotic jump, and offers explanations for SARS‐CoV‐2’s distinctive spike‐protein region and its unexpectedly high affinity for angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE2), as well as the notable polybasic furin cleavage site within it. Additional molecular clues raise further questions, all of which warrant full investigation into the novel coronavirus’s origins and a re‐examination of the risks and rewards of dual‐use gain‐of‐function research.”

      From the conclusion:

      “The history of gain‐of‐function research is one of science’s most significant and troubling, especially since the Nuremberg Code, research scientists’ Hippocratic Oath, dictates that experiments that could endanger human life should only occur if the potential humanitarian benefits significantly outweigh the risks.[ 54 ] It seems ill‐advised to rule out the possibility that gain‐of‐function techniques such as serial passage may have played a role in the creation of SARS‐CoV‐2 until more definitive data are collected, and when the Center for Arms Control and Non‐Proliferation has calculated that the odds that any given potential pandemic pathogen might leak from a lab could be better than one in four.”

  37. Fast Eddy says:

    42.6% of the world population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.
    5.82 billion doses have been administered globally, and 29.6 million are now administered each day.

    Only 1.9% of people in low-income countries have received at least one dose.

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

    This doesn’t add up

    • The data for the UK shows 64.85% people fully vaccinated.
      Meanwhile, the UK govt says it is over 80%.

      • Mike Roberts
        Mike Roberts says:

        Perhaps the reference was for the proportion of those eligible to receive the vaccine. The government data show that over 80% of over 16s have been vaccinated. As you point out, the proportion of the total population that has been vaccinated would be well below that.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        The PR tactic is to promote group cohesion … everyone else has agreed to be experimented on so why not join the CovIDIOTS…. it’s always easier not to rock the boat….

        I suspect these faked injection numbers are convincing some fence sitters to take one for the team

        Idio ts. And they wonder why Fast Eddy rejoice whenever a CovIDIOT is wrecked by the experiment

      • Alex says:

        When they want their numbers look more coercive, they talk about adults’ statistics.

    • Alex says:

      They use four income groups: high, upper middle, lower middle, low. China is upper middle, India is lower middle.

    • eKnock says:

      It’s e EROEI.
      Eliminating an American is far more productive than eliminating a South Asian.

      • I suspect this may have something to do with the intensity of the COVID-19 propaganda in the US. The propaganda lessens once you leave major metropolitan areas for smaller communities though – at least that has been my experience when traveling by car in California.

        Heading for areas that are less energy intensive seems to be one way of escaping COVID-19 hysteria. It reminds me of the “collapse now and avoid the rush” quote.

        The homeless don’t seem to be too bothered by COVID-19 hysteria, and COVID-19 hysteria doesn’t seem to be too bothered by them.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        In case you missed it… how can nearly 6 of 8 billion have been injected when less than 2% of the world’s poorest countries have been jabbed….

  38. Student says:

    It was already anticipated yesterday by Azure Kingfisher (thanks), but now it is confirmed.
    Starting from 15th of October, Italian government wants to oblige people to have covid pass for every kind of work.
    From private workers, passing through public employees and arriving to eletricians and plumbers or whatever.
    With ‘leaking vaccines’ it is clear to everybody that covid pass which asks only to not-vaccinated to check for positivity to the virus, it is not a way to create safe environments, because also vaccinated can be positive and spread the virus.
    Therefore, this is clearly a way to reduce the number of workers in the system and try to exclude a segment of people from Society.
    Because a segment of people could not afford to make tests every 2 days or will not want to do it and will not want to make a jab that could have adverse events or even death and doesn’t protect other people (virus can be spread anyway), but also has efficacy only for 5/6 months.
    In that way the government gives permission to fire people which would have been difficult to fire with the ‘old way’.
    But people inside covid pass should fear to enter in this system too.
    Government will link all kind of permissions to Covid pass and it will be easy to exclude a person from Society for whatever reason.
    A person will be switched off from Society in a second.
    If people do not come together and understand that we all will be in danger, we will all perish.
    It is a terrible nightmare.

    https://www.byoblu.com/2021/09/16/bozza-decreto-pass-lavoro/

    • Yorchichan says:

      What will you do?

      Same question to Marco.

    • Xabier says:

      Yes, Student it’s now very clear what they intend: either die outside the cage, or enter, and be a 24+7 monitored slave, dying later – at their discretion…..

      ‘You will be nothing: and we will be happy!’

      • “Welcome To 2030: I Own Nothing, Have No Privacy And Life Has Never Been Better,” by Ida Auken

        “My biggest concern is all the people who do not live in our city. Those we lost on the way. Those who decided that it became too much, all this technology. Those who felt obsolete and useless when robots and AI took over big parts of our jobs. Those who got upset with the political system and turned against it. They live different kind of lives outside of the city. Some have formed little self-supplying communities. Others just stayed in the empty and abandoned houses in small 19th century villages.”

        https://www.forbes.com/sites/worldeconomicforum/2016/11/10/shopping-i-cant-really-remember-what-that-is-or-how-differently-well-live-in-2030/?sh=50bece8b1735

        • Fast Eddy says:

          These types of articles + all the doomer shows (Hunger Games etc..) are meant to calm the sheep before they are slaughtered….

          If you can convince them that BAU as they have known it all their lives was a dumb idea… to begin with… and that the new and improved BAU will be a Koombaya Utopia….

          They will not panic or riot as their BAU entitlements are stripped away….

          https://time.com/collection/great-reset/

          • Xabier says:

            Orwell again: in 1984 they were told that the old days were simply so terrible…….

            Just as Soviet citizens were led to believe life was utter hell in the plutocratic West.

            These people aren’t remotely inventive – but it works.

        • Lidia17 says:

          What’s scary is that we are already half-way there. I can’t remember, either, what “shopping” is like, if by shopping one means going to a store and physically examining the merchandise or (god forbid) trying something on.

          • Xabier says:

            That’s what Klaus said, Lidia:

            ‘Zer vill be no going back, to ze so-called ‘Good Old Days’: ze CUT iz too deep!’

            He even made a little chopping motion with his aged claw…..

        • What stood out to me was the first sentence in that paragraph:

          “My biggest concern is all the people who do not live in our city.”

          Why are these people her biggest concern? Is it that they may one day band together and attack her city, like a horde of barbarians? In short, do they represent a threat to her and her way of life?

          Or is it rather that she is concerned for their wellbeing? Kind of like feeling bad for the plight of refugees?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      If there is not enough to go around, one way of handling the problem is to exclude an “out group.” The unvaccinated would be such an out group. Since it is a “voluntary out group,” it becomes hard to object to.

      I am afraid we will see more of this, especially where energy resources are most severely constrained.

  39. “Despite its ambitious green energy targets, Europe could be forced to burn more coal this winter if natural gas stockpiles are not adequately replenished amid record-high gas prices, an expert on the EU energy market told Russian news agency TASS on Thursday.”

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Europe-Could-Turn-To-More-Coal-If-Gas-Crunch-Persists.html

    • “Cumbria coalmine firm ‘betting on UK breach of climate targets’.

      “The company seeking to open the UK’s first new deep coalmine in 30 years is gambling on the UK’s and EU’s failure to address climate change, the public inquiry into the mining plans has heard.”

      https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/16/cumbria-coalmine-firm-betting-on-uk-breach-of-climate-targets

      • “Green Push Leaves U.K. Energy Supply at the Mercy of Weather…

        “The crisis could… spark a fresh backlash against renewable energy and net-zero emissions targets. That would make for an unwelcome backdrop as the U.K. prepares to host world leaders at a major climate summit — COP26 –- in a few weeks.”

        https://www.google.com/amp/s/financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/u-k-s-green-push-leaves-country-at-the-mercy-of-the-weather/wcm/037e933e-677d-4595-b1d2-4d9afbbf1642/amp/

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          A person would hope that the outcome of adding intermittent renewable energy and net zero targets would become very obvious.

        • hillcountry – retired electronics manufacturing engineer
          hillcountry says:

          Ever wonder if it could also spark a fresh backlash regarding Solar Radiation Management – invariably denied as already deployed (observable since at least the year 2000)?

          Just reading the video-titles on a YouTube search gives some idea of what’s going on in the background; things like the struggle to get the chemistry right, risk debates, numerous scholarly conferences about global governance schemes, etc.

          https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=solar+radiation+management

          And it looks like an acceleration since around 2010.

          Funny that some independent and relatively obscure videographers have been doing a few really convincing time-lapse footage of the pollution-spread and intimate close-ups of the stratospheric-level spraying; thus, they humorously interrupt the YouTube stream-of-consensus that swears it isn’t happening.

          The use of “Solar Radiation Management” in their video-titles is savvy and gets them right over where they belong, amongst the “scientists”. Gotta love this internet where even if evidence only gets a few hundred views, it is still out there for perusal. A search parameter of “Least Watched” might be a useful addition at YT.

    • Sam says:

      Can they switch over to coal so easy?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I wonder if the coal will really be available, if everyone wants it.

  40. “South Korea Presidential Hopeful Warns of Housing Market Crash.

    “South Korea’s leading opposition candidate warned of a potential collapse in the housing market and a spike in bankruptcies as interest rates rise, blaming President Moon Jae-in for letting debt levels hit a record through expansionary spending.”

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/south-korea-presidential-hopeful-warns-064926057.html

    • “Is China losing South Korea?

      “…Calling on Beijing and Seoul to foster a “sense of community” amid a “major shift” in global affairs, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged South Korea not to join the US-led “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing group – as has recently been discussed – calling the arrangement “outdated.””

      https://asiatimes.com/2021/09/is-china-losing-south-korea/

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I am afraid housing bubble crashes may happen in many countries, including China.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The question for So. Korea becomes who to ally with: US or China.

  41. “PBOC Injects $14 Billion as Evergrande Debt Woes Roil Market.

    “China boosted its injection of short-term cash into the financial system in a sign the authorities are seeking to soothe market nerves frayed by concern over quarter-end funding needs and China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis.”

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pboc-injects-13-9-billion-031442743.html

    • “China reveals largest ever drop in monthly steel output as struggling property developers roil markets…

      “Beijing revealed this week that Chinese steel output dropped by more than 12% in August to 83.2m tonnes, the greatest year-on-year slump since the global financial crisis, according to data from brokers Braemar ACM.”

      https://splash247.com/china-reveals-largest-ever-drop-in-monthly-steel-output-as-struggling-property-developers-roil-markets/

      • “China’s Nightmare Evergrande Scenario Is an Uncontrolled Crash…

        “Protests intensify at China Evergrande Group offices across the country as the developer falls further behind on promises to more than 70,000 investors. Construction of unfinished properties with enough floor space to cover three-fourths of Manhattan grinds to a halt, leaving more than a million homebuyers in limbo.”

        https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-16/china-s-nightmare-evergrande-scenario-is-an-uncontrolled-crash

        • “Shares in Ping An Insurance fell on Friday as concerns mounted over contagion from a crisis surrounding real estate developer China Evergrande…

          “A frantic sell-off surrounding Evergrande’s debt and equity has shown signs of spreading to other developers, including Guangzhou R&F and Fantasia Group.”

          https://www.ft.com/content/7608a4a8-d791-4f7b-93ec-34be4c82a106

          • “The editor-in-chief of state-backed Chinese newspaper Global Times warned debt-ridden property giant Evergrande that it should not bet on a government bailout on the assumption that it is “too big to fail”.

            “It was the first commentary to appear in state-backed media casting doubt on a government bailout for the country’s No.2 property developer…”

            https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-evergrande-should-not-bet-govt-bailout-global-times-editor-2021-09-17/

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              Not bailing out Evergrande is somewhat like not bailing out bailing out Lehman Brothers. In China, condominiums serve as savings banks for many people.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          What happens to all of the unfinished properties? There is no doubt a lot of debt related to these properties.

          • From yesterday. See minutes: 10:15 – 12:11

            15 buildings demolished in 45 seconds (China in Focus)

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              From the video, it looks like there are quite a few unfinished buildings that will need to be demolished, the same way the 15 high rises are shown to be demolished in the video. I am sure that there was unpaid debt somewhere along the way, as well.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Wow! A 12% drop in steel production by the world’s largest producer. It is hard to make vehicles, refrigerators and oil and gas drilling pipes without steel.

  42. “Demand for uranium has seen a surge overnight with prices sitting at a nine-year high.

    “Shortages in supply for uranium saw its price rise from US$30 a pound just a month ago to US$48 a pound on Thursday with the share prices of Australian companies up by 70 per cent over the last couple of weeks.”

    https://www.skynews.com.au/business/markets/uranium-prices-surge-amid-shortages-in-supply/video/55ddf4087f79a1245efa971ada06a649

    • worldofhanumanotg
      worldofhanumanotg says:

      The alt investor / econ blogosphere was pumping the uranium story for years, but especially during this very summer, so that must be part of the quick effect, simply more people entered there and are now parked in the sector waiting for easy multiplication gain..

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Someone pointed out to me that back in 2008, uranium prices surged to nearly $140 per pound. A surge to $48 a pound is up from where it has been, but not nearly as high as the earlier spike.

      • worldofhanumanotg
        worldofhanumanotg says:

        There is a lot of legacy bunker fuel goo to power the merchant fleet but if we ever transition to small reactor powered ones, $48-140 would be considered then pennies inside kiddies piglet toy bank aka forget e-coin, the glowing rock is the savings vehicle of the future (maybe)..

        But that’s at least two decades off if ever – and remember you heard it here first – so you are welcome to lay flowers near my grave then.

  43. Fast Eddy says:

    Just how badly did vaccine failure surprise Fauci?

    This badly: on May 20 (May!) he said the US might be able to eliminate Sars-Cov-2 entirely. Three months later he was begging for boosters double-quick. True story.

    https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/just-how-badly-did-vaccine-failure

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