Could we be hitting natural gas limits already?

Many countries have assumed that natural gas imports will be available for balancing electricity produced by intermittent wind and solar, whenever they are needed. The high natural gas import prices recently being encountered in Europe, and especially in the UK, appear to be an indication of an underlying problem. Could the world already be hitting natural gas limits?

One reason few people expect a problem with natural gas is because of the immense quantities reported as proven reserves. For all countries combined, these reserves at December 31, 2020 were equal to 48.8 times world natural gas production in 2020. Thus, in theory, the world could continue to produce natural gas at the current rate for almost 50 years, without even trying to find more natural gas resources.

Ratios of natural gas reserves to production vary greatly by country, giving a hint that the indications may be unreliable. High reserves make an exporting country appear to be dependable for many years in the future, whether or not this is true.

Figure 1. Ratio of natural gas reserves at December 31, 2020, to natural gas production for the year 2020, based on trade data of BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. Russia+ is the Commonwealth of Independent States. It includes Russia and the countries to the south of Russia that were included in the former Soviet Union.

As I see the issue, these reserves are unlikely to be produced unless world oil prices rise to a level close to double what they are today and stay at such a high level for several years. I say this because the health of the oil and gas industries are closely intertwined. Of the two, oil has historically been the major profit-maker, enabling adequate funds for reinvestment. Prices have been too low for oil producers for about eight years now, cutting back on investment in new fields and export capability. This low-price issue is what seems to be leading to limits to the natural gas supply, as well as a limit to the oil supply.

Figure 2. Inflation adjusted oil prices based on EIA monthly average Brent oil prices, adjusted by the CPI Urban. The chart shows price data through October 2020. The Brent oil price at September 24, 2021 is about $74 per barrel, which is still very low relative to what oil companies require to make adequate reinvestment.

In this post, I will try to explain some of the issues involved. In some ways, a dire situation already seems to be developing.

[1] Taking a superficial world view, natural gas seems to be doing fairly well. It is only when a person starts analyzing some of the pieces that problems start to become clear.

Figure 3. World oil, coal and natural gas supply based on data of BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Figure 3 shows that natural gas supply has been rising, year after year. There was a brief dip in 2009, at the time of the Great Recession, and a slightly larger dip in 2020, related to COVID-19 restrictions. Overall, production has been growing at a steady rate. Compared to oil and coal, the recent growth pattern of natural gas has been more stable.

The quantity of exports of natural gas tends to be much more variable. Figure 4 compares inter-regional trade for coal and natural gas. Here, I have ignored local trade and only considered trade among fairly large blocks of countries, such as North America, Europe and Russia combined with its close affiliates.

Figure 4. Total inter-regional trade among fairly large groupings of countries (such as Europe and North America) based on trade data provided by BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

If a person looks closely at the growth of natural gas imports in Figure 4, it becomes clear that growth in natural gas is a feast or famine proposition, given to upward spurts, dips and flat periods. It is my understanding that in the early years, natural gas was typically traded under long-term contracts, on a “take or pay” basis. The price was often tied to the oil price. This generous pricing structure allowed natural gas exports to grow rapidly in the 2000 to 2008 period. The Great Recession cut back the need for natural gas imports and also led to downward pressure on the pricing of exports.

After the Great Recession, natural gas import prices tended to fall below oil prices (Figure 5) except in Japan, where stability of supply is very important. Another change was that an increasing share of exported natural gas was sold in the “spot” market. These prices fluctuate depending on changes in supply and demand, making them much more variable.

Figure 5. Comparison of annual average natural gas prices with corresponding Brent oil price, based on information from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. Natural gas prices per million Btus converted to barrel of oil equivalent prices by multiplying by 6.0.

Looking back at Figure 4, natural gas exports were close to flat between 2011 and 2016. Such flat exports, together with falling export prices in the 2013 to 2016 period (Figure 5), would have been a nightmare for oil and gas companies doing long-range planning for oil exports. Exports spurted upward in the 2016 to 2019 period, and then fell back in 2020 (Figure 4). All of the volatility in the growth rate of required new production, combined with uncertainty of the pricing of exports, reduced interest in planning for projects that would increase natural gas export capability.

[2] In 2021, quite a number of countries seem to be ramping up natural gas imports at the same time. This is likely one issue leading to the spiking spot prices in Europe for natural gas.

Now that the economy is recovering from the effects of COVID-19, Europe is trying to ramp up its natural gas imports, probably to a level above the import level in 2019. Figure shows that both China and Other Asia Pacific are also likely to be ramping up their imports, providing a great deal of competition for imports.

Figure 6. Areas with net natural gas imports, based on trade data of BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. Other Asia Pacific excludes Japan, China and Australia.

It is no surprise that China’s natural gas imports are rising rapidly. With China’s rapid economic growth, it needs energy resources of whatever kinds it can obtain. Natural gas is cleaner-burning than coal. The CO2 emitted when burning natural gas is lower, as well. (These climate benefits may be partially or fully offset by methane lost in shipping natural gas as liquefied natural gas (LNG), however.)

In Figure 6, the sudden appearance and rapid rise of Other Asia Pacific imports can be explained by the fact that this figure shows the net indications for a combination of natural gas importers (including South Korea, India, and Taiwan) and exporters (including Malaysia and Indonesia). In recent years, natural gas import growth has greatly exceeded export growth. It would not be surprising if this rapid rise continues, since this part of the world is one that has been increasing its manufacturing in recent years.

If anyone had stepped back to analyze the situation in 2019, it would have been clear that, in the near future, natural gas exports would need to be rising extremely rapidly to meet the needs of all of the importers simultaneously. The dip in Europe’s natural gas imports due to COVID-19 restrictions in 2020 temporarily hid the problem. Now that Europe is trying to get back to normal, there doesn’t seem to be enough to go around.

[3] Apart from the United States, it is hard to find a part of the world where natural gas exports are rapidly rising.

Figure 7. Natural gas exports by area, based on trade data of BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. Russia+ is the Commonwealth of Independent States. It includes Russia and the countries to the south of Russia that were included in the former Soviet Union.

Russia+ is by far the world’s largest exporter of natural gas. Even with Russia+’s immense exports, its total exports (about 10 exajoules a year, based on Figure 7) still fall short of Europe’s natural gas import needs (at least 12 exajoules a year, based on Figure 6). The dip in Russia+’s natural gas exports in 2020 no doubt reflects the fact that Europe’s imports fell in 2020 (Figure 6). Since these exports were mostly pipeline exports, there was no way that Russia+ could sell the unwanted natural gas elsewhere, lowering its total exports.

At this point, there seems to be little expectation for a major rise in natural gas exports from Russia+ because of a lack of capital to spend on such projects. Russia built the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline, but it doesn’t seem to have a huge amount of new natural gas exports to put into the pipeline. As much as anything, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline seems to be a way of bypassing Ukraine with its exports.

Figure 7 shows that the Middle East’s natural gas exports rose in the period 2000 to 2011, but they have since leveled off. A major use for Middle Eastern natural gas is to produce electricity to support the local economies. Before the Middle East ramped up its natural gas production, much of the electricity was obtained by burning oil. The sales price the Middle East can get for selling its natural gas is far below the price it can get for selling oil, especially when the high cost of shipping the natural gas is considered. Thus, it makes sense for Middle Eastern countries to use the natural gas themselves, saving the oil, since the sale of oil produces more export revenue.

Africa’s natural gas exports have fallen, in part because of depletion of the early natural gas fields in Algeria. In theory, Africa’s natural gas exports could rise to a substantial level, but it is doubtful this will happen quickly because of the large amount of capital required to build LNG export facilities. Furthermore, Africa is badly in need of fuel for itself. Local authorities may decide that if natural gas is available, it should be used for the benefit of the people in the area.

Australia’s natural gas exports have risen mostly as a result of the Gorgon LNG Project off the northwest coast of Australia. This project was expected to be high cost at $37 billion when it was approved in 2009. The actual cost soared to $54 billion, according to a 2017 cost estimate. The high (and uncertain) cost of large LNG projects makes investors cautious regarding new investments in LNG exports. S&P Global by Platts reported in June, 2021, “Australia’s own exports are expected to be relatively stable in the coming years.” This statement was made after saying that a project in Mozambique, Africa, is being cancelled because of stability issues.

The country with the largest increase in natural gas exports in recent years is the United States. The US is not shown separately in Figure 7, but it represents the largest portion of natural gas exported from North America. Prior to 2017, North America was a net importer of natural gas, including LNG from Trinidad and Tobago, Egypt, Algeria and elsewhere.

[4] The United States has a strange reason for wanting to export large quantities of natural gas overseas: Its natural gas prices have been too low for producers for a long time. Natural gas producers hope the exports will raise natural gas prices within the US.

Natural gas prices vary widely around the world because the fuel is expensive to ship and difficult to store. Figure 5 (above) shows that, at least since 2009, US natural gas prices have been unusually low.

The main reason why the price of natural gas dropped around 2009 seems to have been a ramp up in US shale oil production that started about this time. While the main objective of most of the shale drilling was oil, natural gas was a byproduct that came along. Oil producers were willing to almost give the natural gas away, if they could make money on the oil. However, they also had trouble making money on the oil extraction. That seems to be the reason why oil extraction from shale is now being reduced.

Figure 8 shows a chart prepared by the US Energy Administration showing US dry natural gas production, by type: non-shale, Appalachia shale and other shale.

Figure 8. Figure by EIA showing US natural gas production in three categories.

Based on Figure 8, the timing of the ramp up of natural gas from shale seems to correspond with the timing in the drop in natural gas prices. By 2008 (the first year shown on this chart), gas from shale formations had risen to well over 10% of US natural gas production. At this level, it would be expected to have an impact on prices. Adding natural gas to an already well-supplied market would be likely to reduce US natural gas prices because, with natural gas, the situation isn’t “build it, and demand will come.”

People don’t raise the temperature to which they heat their homes, at least not very much, simply because the natural gas price is lower. The use of natural gas as a transport fuel has not caught on because of all of the infrastructure that would be required to enable the transition. The one substitution that has tended to take place is the use of natural gas to replace coal, particularly in electricity generation. This likely means that a major shift back to coal use cannot really be done, although a smaller shift can be done, and, in fact, seems to already be taking place, based on EIA data.

[5] The reason that limits are a concern for natural gas is because the economy is very much more interconnected, and much more dependent on energy, than most people assume.

I think of the economy as being interconnected in much the same way as the many systems within a human being are interconnected. For example, humans have a circulatory system, or perhaps several such circulatory systems, for different fluids; economies have highway systems and road systems, as well as pipeline systems.

Humans require food at regular intervals. They have a digestive system to help them digest this food. The food has to be of the right kinds, not all sweets, for example. The economy needs energy of the right kinds, as well. It has many kinds of devices that use this energy. Intermittent electricity from wind or solar, by itself, doesn’t really work.

Human beings have kinds of alarms that go off to tell if there is something wrong. They feel hungry if they haven’t eaten in a while. They feel thirsty if they need water to drink. They may feel overheated if an infection gives them a fever. An economy has alarms that go off, as well. Prices rise too high for consumers. Or, companies go bankrupt from low market prices for their products. Or, widespread defaults on loans become a problem.

The symptoms we are seeing now with the UK economy relate to a natural gas import system that is showing signs of distress. It is pleasant to think that the central bankers or public officials can fix all problems, but they really cannot, just as we cannot fix all problems with our health.

[6] Inexpensive energy plays an essential role in the economy.

We all know that inexpensive food is far preferable to expensive food in powering our own personal economies. For example, if we need to spend 14 hours producing enough food to live on (either directly by farming, or indirectly by earning wages to buy the food), it is clear that we will not be able to afford much of anything other than food. On the other hand, if we can produce food to live on in 30 minutes a day (directly or indirectly), then we can spend the rest of the day earning money to buy other goods and services. We likely can afford many kinds of goods and services. Thus, a low price for food makes a big difference.

It is the same way with the overall economy. If energy costs are low, the cost of producing food is likely low because the cost of using tractors, fertilizers, weed killers and irrigation is low. From the point of view of any manufacturer using electricity, low price is important in being able to produce goods that are competitive in the global marketplace. From the point of view of a homeowner, a low electricity price is important in order to have enough funds left over after paying the electricity bill to be able to afford other goods and services.

Economists seem to believe that high energy prices can be acceptable, especially if the price of fossil fuels rises because of depletion. This is not true, without adversely affecting how the economy functions. We can understand this problem at our household level; if food prices suddenly rise, the rest of our budget must shrink back.

[7] If energy prices spike, these high prices tend to push the economy into recession.

A key issue with fossil fuels is depletion. The resources that are the least expensive to access and remove tend to be extracted first. In theory, there is a great deal more fossil fuel available, if the price rises high enough. The problem is that there is a balancing act between what the producer needs and what the consumer can afford. If energy prices rise very high, consumers are forced to cut back on their spending, pushing the economy into recession.

High oil prices were a major factor pushing the United States and other major users of oil into the Great Recession of 2007-2009. See my article in Energy, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis. In part, high oil prices made debt harder to repay, especially for low income workers with long commutes. It also made countries that used a significant share of oil in their energy mix less competitive in the world market.

The situation being encountered by some natural gas importers is indeed similar. Paying a very high price for imported natural gas is not a very acceptable situation. But not having electricity available or not being able to heat our homes is not very acceptable either.

[8] Conclusion. It is easy to be lulled into complacency by the huge natural gas reserves that seem to be available.

Unfortunately, it is necessary to build all of the infrastructure that is required to extract natural gas resources and deliver them to customers at a price that the customers can truly afford. At the same time, the price needs to be acceptable to the organization building the infrastructure.

Of course, more debt or money created out of thin air doesn’t solve the problem. Resources of many kinds need to be available to build the required infrastructure. At the same time, wages of workers need to be high enough that they can purchase the physical goods they require, including food, clothing, housing and basic transportation.

At this point, the problem with high prices is most noticeable in Europe, with its dependence on natural gas imports. Europe may just be the “canary in the coal mine.” The problem has the potential to spread to other natural gas prices and to other fossil fuel prices, pushing the world economy toward recession.

At a minimum, people planning the use of intermittent electricity from wind or solar should not assume that reasonably priced natural gas will always be available for balancing. One likely area for shortfall will be winter, as well as storing up reserves for winter (the problem affecting Europe now), since winter is when heating needs are the highest and solar resources are the lowest.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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4,770 Responses to Could we be hitting natural gas limits already?

  1. Fast Eddy says:

    And in Sweden they never locked down even once….

  2. Fast Eddy says:

    Skip the klimate change and renewable energy garbage…. and we are left with more confirmation that the energy situation is dire….

    • A fine article by Nafeez Ahmed. This is an excerpt:

      In my research at Anglia Ruskin University for my book, Failing States, Collapsing Systems, I discovered an alarming pattern from the study of state-failures and civil conflicts in every region of the world: countries become vulnerable to state-failure within around 15 years of losing stable and consistent supplies of energy. Although it’s not easy to apply this to complex cases involving multiple countries with various import and export relationships around energy, if we view Europe as a whole, the mounting evidence that the continent is no longer a significant fossil fuel producer dovetails with the evidence that significant fossil fuel producers are displaying declines in production.

      In May 2021, the French Defence Ministry commissioned Paris-based think-tank, The Shift Project, to examine the continent’s energy woes. The report, authored by renowned International Energy Agency oil expert Oliver Rech, concluded that total oil supplies to the EU are likely to drop by 10-20% over the next decade. Unless this shortfall is rectified through a fundamentally new energy strategy, Europe will face escalating political disruption out to 2036 which, at that point, may lead to continent-wide processes of state-failure.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Clearly all nations are aware of the predicament we are in … they are aware that there is No Way Out… they are aware that this will cause the collapse of civilization … and epic violence and suffering … they are aware of the 4000 spent fuel ponds so know that nobody survives….

        This is why EVERY single nation on earth is Injecting… even the Swedes are injecting .. the only country that has already defeated covid….

        It is responsibility of every leader … every administrator… every politician… On The Planet… to ensure that the extinction is orderly … and involves minimal suffering.

        We must applaud the Elders for their magnificent efforts to keep the train on the track doing Whatever It Takes… for all these years…. and hats off to their minions in the Deep State for executing the CEP…

        Now we have to hope that this Grandiose Plan… completes… before the energy situation explodes in our faces….

        All roads point to the coming winter up north for the beginning of the Mass Cull.

        BTW – Fast Eddy also has a Think Tank… residing between his ears. It runs at 1500HP….

  3. Fast Eddy says:

    There have also been tense clashes between motorists. In one shocking incident caught on camera in southeast London, a man pulled a knife on another driver while shouting at him through his car window.

    The man was then thrown onto the bonnet as the car moved forward, before he circled back to the driver’s side and kicked the vehicle, damaging its mirror.

    Police arrived at the scene to find “no trace of either vehicle”. No injuries were reported and the drivers involved have yet to be identified.

  4. Yoshua says:

    China has fixed electricity price set by the government.
    The electricity producers are buying coal at the spot market.
    Coal prices have spiked to $200 per short ton.
    The electricity producers are shutting down production since they are making losses.

    • Good point! It seems like I ran across something like this a few years ago. China with its “control” of the situation can choose less than optimal outcomes.

  5. Student says:

    My friend, that is wonderful:
    as European Union has realized that there is a great problem of misinformation in our societies, it has decided to give funds to open ‘observatories of truth’.
    Idmo will be the Italian department of these observatories.
    These observatories will say to the people what is right and what is wrong an so what to believe in.
    Luckily there will be no problems to understand our reality !
    Luckily, it will a be an organization to do that instead of us !

    One of the mainstream journalists involved in the project said that the problem is so big that:
    ‘suffice it to say that […] 50% of British citizens don’t believe the press along with 48% of Americans and furthermore 42% of Brits think the government lies’.
    Therefore we must fix the problem…..

    Please see:

  6. Yoshua says:

    WTI 76.20

    Something is going break

  7. Fast Eddy says:


    Israel to end COVID-19 restrictions after vaccine success

    23/05/2021 — JERUSALEM, May 23 (Reuters) – Israel will end local COVID-19 restrictions following a successful vaccine rollout that has nearly stamped out …

  8. Fast Eddy says:

    On natural gas, he said prices could shoot up even more this winter if cold weather forces demand higher in Europe and Asia.

    The bullish outlook comes as oil demand fast recovers toward its pre-pandemic level, with most traders expecting that consumption will reach the 2019 by early-to-mid 2022. As demand rebounds, supply has struggled to keep up: U.S. shale companies have kept a lid on spending, preferring to pay dividends to shareholders. With U.S. shale reacting slowly to higher prices, the OPEC+ oil cartel has been able to keep control of the market.

    “The U.S. shale industry is showing very strong discipline. Oil prices are roughly double what they were a year ago and despite that we’re not seeing a huge increase in drilling,” Luckock said.

    Luckock said that it was difficult to see lower natural gas prices this winter in Europe, despite the commodity trading at a record high already: “If it’s a cold winter in Europe or Asia, we have a big problem,” he said. “If it’s cold, and on top, it isn’t windy, then we have a much bigger problem. We will face shortages.”

    Notably, Luckock said he was skeptical that Russia, the biggest gas supplier to Europe, was intentionally tightening the market for political gain, suggesting that Moscow was already pumping as much gas as it could right now.


  9. Fast Eddy says:

    A ‘fad’ or something that was long in the making?

    Looking at the big picture, the recent move in global natural gas prices is a long time in the making, and structurally higher natural gas prices are likely here to stay. The main driver is a big slowdown in natural gas production in the US, the global growth engine for such supplies over the past decade via the fracking revolution. In fact, the US was practically swimming in natural gas up until a few years ago, when LNG export capacity began to increase.

    Things have changed rather dramatically in recent months, however, and the US is no longer growing supplies, with production remaining well off the pre-pandemic highs. At the same time, global demand continues to move higher as the world attempts to shift towards a zero-carbon future (As the EU has reduced the supply of emissions credit, the EU’s benchmark carbon price rose above EUR 60 per metric ton in early September for the first time in its existence.

    According to EEX data, by 20 September, 437 million ton of CO2 was auctioned in 2021, compared to 459 million tons in the same period last year.) As it stands, this ambitious goal is simply unworkable without natural gas providing an important bridge away from the dirtiest of fuels such as coal and fuel oil. As such, global natural gas supply and demand balances are extremely tight and storage levels are critically low heading into the high-demand winter months.

    Further to that end, our fundamental modelling is indicating that global storage facilities would be practically empty in a cold winter scenario. This would be a catastrophic scenario which the market is trying to solve for now by increasing prices so much that demand is forced to ration. We are beginning to see this dynamic play out in real-time, as fertilizer and other industrial facilities are forced to shut in Europe as a direct result of the high natural gas prices. This should help ease demand on the margin – with major side-effects, as in the threat of food shortages in the UK due to a lack but so far, no supply-side relief is in sight.

  10. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Aluminum’s Surge Is Really an Energy Crisis in Disguise… Producing it involves using massive electrical currents to melt alumina…

    “Energy typically accounts for a third or more of the cost of aluminum — so when the price of energy rises, you can expect metal prices to do the same. In that sense, the aluminum’s spike is another minor energy crisis analogous to the surging value of European gas and Australian coal.”

    • Fast Eddy says:

      The industry needs to find another source of power or it won’t survive the transition to a decarbonized society — and that means sectors from construction and consumer products to new-generation technologies will suffer.

      Well… we could cover half the planet in solar panels….

      transition — hahahaahha

  11. Fast Eddy says:

    Overseas-based Kiwis trying to secure bookings in the Government’s latest release of managed isolation spots say it’s an “absolute joke and depressing”.

    Wellsford woman Caroline, who is desperate to get to the UK to see her mum after her father passed away suddenly two years ago, was booted from the MIQ site despite being just 616th in the queue.

    Talking to the Herald, Caroline said the system froze then kicked her out entirely.

    “We were 616 in the queue and it suddenly froze and the button wouldn’t move.

    “I had already picked my date on the MIQ calendar. Then we got a 404 error message and it booted us from the website.

    “It’s an absolute shambles,” she said.

    When will these clowns get the message that the govt does not want them to travel?

  12. Fast Eddy says:

    How to save oil:

    Tens of thousands of overseas-based Kiwis are again trying to secure bookings in the Government’s latest release of managed isolation spots.

    The Government’s virtual lobby opened at 5pm today, with 3800 more rooms being released at 6pm.

    By 6.03pm, people were already tweeting about their spot in the queue. One person said they were number 26,700.

    Another – Kate Saunders – told the Herald she was number 23,500 in the queue.

    “Absolute joke and depressing …” she said of how she was feeling.

    Saunders has been trying to get home from Melbourne for the past 19 months.

    The MIQ lottery “is a joke”, said Kamal Katnaur, who has 25,749 people ahead of him in the queue.

    “The circus goes on.”

    At 6:48pm people received notifications that all rooms for this December release are now gone. There will however be another room release coming soon.

  13. Erdles says:

    In the UK currently the retail price for electriity is four times that of gas.

  14. Sissyfuss says:

    Limits to Growth is right on schedule and human overshoot is part and parcel with it.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      if only there was some sort of disguised medical treatment that would greatly reduce the population in the next few years.

    • Alex says:

      Regarding timing, the LTG concludes (1972): “If the present growth trends in world population, industrialization, pollution, food production, and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the next one hundred years.”

      Hitting a century-wide window can hardly be called “right on schedule”. Just saying.

  15. Artleads says:

    Marcus Garvey
    I stood at attention to see there was an angry thunderclap!
    A natural manifestation of the ugly clouds above!
    Proud man was all in excitement, questioning the meaning of darkness
    That surrounded him on every side, from mother earth to heaven!
    Men were looking through closed windows with stares of anxiety!
    Mothers were seeking their children for closer union of love
    All motive power in the city had come to a sudden stop!
    There was nothing cheerful, only gloom and prehistoric weirdness!
    It was not the end of all time, nor the hour for Gabriel’s horn:
    It was atmospheric change, caused through elemental moodiness,
    That sometimes makes us feel that our sciences are but speculations,
    And the majesty of man, feeble, as his finite intellect:
    Yet, there was a fear and trembling as I observed it all around!
    Hearts were searched and prayers were offered in devout holiness!
    Everyone thought it was the end of the world, the great Judgment morn-
    The final visitation of God upon man’s vain damnations!
    I wondered to myself when I saw the weakness of my brother
    In the moment of apparent danger and infinite distress,
    How is it he finds heart to enslave the rest of his fellow men,
    When conscience must tell him withal, we are in reality one?
    Those heavy clouds or roaring Heaven did not gather all in vain!
    On that day millions saw the evil of their fellows to oppress,
    The commonness of love and punishment from the Everlasting Father
    Who saves cities, nations and peoples for even the righteous ten!
    After several blasts of thunder had shaken the trembling earth,
    The rain from the very clouds burst through in torrential showers!
    Again there was a sudden breaking of the angry elements!
    A stillness, as of death, seemed to reign on every hand and shadow!
    The sun, in munificent glory shone radiantly once more;
    Everything was refreshed, from the green grass to the rosy flowers!
    It was as if Nature had served her elemental sacraments,
    To give new life to the ancient hill, dale, mountain and meadow!
    But I was satisfied that in the approach of death, men unite
    To shield themselves by thought and deed from the dread and ominous terror!
    This was only a storm with its currents of electricity!
    Yet the whole populace was aroused to see man’s finite weakness,
    To realize that in the midst of life we are subjects of death,
    Children of an understanding Source, hidden beyond Nature’s mirror!
    Whether of men we be divided in Yellow, Brown, Black or White,
    We shall pass from life to the mysterious eternity!

  16. MG says:

    The truth is that we live in the world where the sufferngs are accumulatng. We do not need progress anymore. We need the measures for mitigation of the sufferings.

    If progress consumes the energy needed for the mitigation of the sufferings, then we do not need progress.

    The human species migrated into unfavourable clmts based on the ability to use external energy for the mitigation of too low or too high temperatures, the lack of clean water, the lack of food, the lack of workforce for sustaining the civilization etc.

    The only reasonable solution for fighting the clmt chng is to abandon those areas where the life of the human species is no longer sustainable.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      the only reasonable solution is for humans to continue full blast bAU as much as is individually possible.

      nature has already worked out a perfect plan for ending the suffering of every individual.

      accept clmte chng accept suffering accept death accept temporary unsustainable IC.

      embrace whatever you want to, abandon whatever you want to.

      some things are sustainable, at least for tonight, baby.

  17. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    US natural gas spikes from 5.17 to 5.92

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        copper 4.28
        silver 22.66

        are only energy prices rising?

        WTI 75
        Brent 79

        these are multi year highs.

        though adjusting for inflation, they are way below the 2011-2014 plateau as seen in the second graph in your article.

        that plateau was mostly $120+ so today’s “high” prices should not be misconstrued as anywhere close to that time period.

        natural gas was roughly $3 to $4 back then.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      broke thru to 6.01

      do I hear 7?

  18. A per-emptive strike by the rentiers against the renters is inevitable.

    It is to eliminate a huge mass of population who would love to kill the rentiers when things go around.

    The experience of the Russian Revolution is not forgotten. NEVER AGAIN.

    I predict that the bottom 2/3 to 4/5 of population will be dead by 2030. Only those who have higher wealth, higher intelligence or at least higher connection will survive.

    • info says:

      India with it’s Ivermectin success story proves you wrong.

      • While very interesting, that’s one of the lesser debated angles of that whole thing.

        Clearly, China – India – Russia must have some foreknowledge of the CEPers / WEFers overall scam angle unless they are total fly by night dupes and halfwits.

        Now, what is their key strategy to cope or mount opposition against it, beside the non zero option that the plan is somewhat lukewarm supported by that trio as well.. and the surface heckling is only about negotiating / forcing the depop severity (quota) for each country and their respective realm of influence etc.

      • That has nothing to do with the rentiers striking first.

    • Zach says:

      LOL those with higher wealth in imaginary funny money?

      I don’t think Bill Gates or Warren Buffett are going to survive whats coming.

      What are you going to do when the grid goes down and never comes back on? What kind of a person do you think will survive that scenario?

      • There will be plenty of luxury goods such moguls can offer to those with skils

        • there might be a few things, but offhand i can’t think of any ‘luxury good’ that would be of any use or value outside a functioning ‘universal energy’ society.

          anyone with usable skill would capitalise on the in much more productive ways

      • Billy G. although merely a second tier in the pecking order of the system stakeholders, most likely owns secluded mansions with dependable hydro (24/365) or even perhaps small reactor, not mentioning on standby spooling jets to get him anywhere on the planet etc.. So, he will be just fine for a while..

  19. MonkeyBusiness says:

    Veteran Japan Investor Takes Out Full-Page Ads to Warn of Bubble

    Repent!! The end is nigh!!!

    • So, what is a person to do with their money? There is a chance that pretty much everything goes to zero, close to simultaneously. About all a person can do is diversify a bit. Of course, without goods and services being produced, all of our life expectancies are pretty short.

      • MonkeyBusiness says:

        With circuit breakers etc, it’s hard for stock markets to fall to zero in an instant.

        I also think gold will become money “again”. Not right away, but gold has been money forever even before the era of fossil fuels. If nobody survives then what to do with money is irrelevant.

        Not a gold bug. I’d rather be able to travel normally like before with gold at 1200 than living in a collapsed world with gold at 50K (not my prediction).

        • Jimothy says:

          I wonder what will happen to gold’s value if the human population crashes. There’s more gold and silver now in the world than ever. If population went back to, say, the level it was in the year 1800, the ratio of gold to humans would be much higher than it was back then. A much different situation than right now, when metals are very tight.

          As a farmer, I wouldn’t trade anything for metals unless I could exchange those metals for goods and services. A big question I have is, even if I can continue to be productive, who will buy what I produce, and how?

          This, of course, sidelines the conversation about looters, violence, and instability.

          • MonkeyBusiness says:

            It’s not about how much gold there is. The total number of gold in the world has not changed that much. It’s about how much gold the remaining population can access. If you didn’t know already, a bar of gold is pretty heavy.

            • Jimothy says:

              “The best estimates currently available suggest that around 197,576 tonnes of gold has been mined throughout history, of which around two-thirds has been mined since 1950. And since gold is virtually indestructible, this means that almost all of this metal is still around in one form or another.”


            • MonkeyBusiness says:

              Hi yes, that’s what I meant by “The total number of gold in the world has not changed that much.” Sure we have way more gold above ground than below ground, but without energy you can’t haul that much gold around. In ancient China, gold would be hauled around using horses, which I am guessing will be our main mode of transportation again once fossil fuels ran out.

        • Hubbs says:

          No doubt several attempts at fiat currency or CBDCs will be made, but they will all fail. They always do -eventually. Surviving members of society will have to “unwind” and disperse to smaller more self sustaining, less complex communities. Barter will be the initial “currency.” Only then will silver gain traction as true money, and from there as society re establishes a new equilibrium, maybe gold will gain ascendancy- but it will take decades- translated as generation(s), but still a good way to pass on an estate and leave your heirs to figure out how to use it.

          Gold will be too concentrated a form of money to be used initially. Gold jewelry and even gold numismatic coins will not readily be accepted. Silver will be used for smaller day to day transactions for food, clothes, tools etc., and the fact that being more plentiful, it has more chance of being freely convertible on demand- a requirement for true money. But I am not holding my breath waiting for these changes. I think people would have to face a really shxxtty existence, i.e., no beer, TV or sports, no sanitation, no food, no water, heating or air con before they revolt.
          In other words, get used to the slow suck-if we’re lucky.

  20. Mirror on the wall says:

    It seems that although Poland and Germany have a ‘shortage’ of their own HGV drivers, they get all the drivers that they need from the EU. They do not have an actual shortage. Britain has a shortage because of Brexit…

    > End to freedom of movement behind UK fuel crisis, says Merkel’s likely successor

    Olaf Scholz, poised to become next chancellor, wades into row over HGV driver shortage

    The centre-left politician in pole position to replace Angela Merkel as German chancellor has pinpointed the decision to end freedom of movement with Europe after Brexit as the reason for Britain’s petrol crisis.

    Olaf Scholz, who is seeking to form a coalition government after the SPD emerged as the biggest party in Germany’s federal elections, said he hoped Boris Johnson would be able to deal with the consequences of the UK’s exit from the EU.

    “The free movement of labour is part of the European Union, and we worked very hard to convince the British not to leave the union,” he said.

    “Now they decided different, and I hope that they will manage the problems coming from that, because I think it is constantly an important idea for all of us to make it happen that there will be good relations between the EU and the UK, but this is a problem to be solved.”

    A number of EU member states, including Germany, have longstanding HGV driver shortages. The most heavily affected countries are Poland (a shortage of 124,000 drivers) and Germany (45,000 to 60,000). But unlike in the UK, companies in the EU have been able to rely on nationals from their neighbours to fill the gaps, and the problems of empty supermarket shelves and panic-buying at petrol station forecourts have been avoided.

    …. The fuel crisis has sparked a debate over whether and to what degree Brexit is to blame. Last week Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, said Europe’s driver shortage was equal to or worse than Britain’s, and that leaving the EU had helped “provide a solution”.

    But Anna Soubry, a former Tory business minister who quit the party over Brexit, said Scholz was right and added: “It’s like something happened to our country and no one is allowed to speak truth to the power of Boris Johnson and his Brexit.”

    She said: “We are now facing up to the reality of Brexit. We have got shortages. We are going to have inflation and we are not going to be the country we were before we took this decision. Saying this stuff isn’t criticising the people who voted for it. The criticism is levelled at the leaders of the leave campaign … who went out and told lies to the British people and who promised sunlit uplands.”

  21. Rodster says:

    “Suppliers in China for Apple, Tesla, Intel, Nvidia, Qualcomm, NXP, Infineon, ASE Forced to Halt Production amid Energy Crackdown

    The Everything Shortage keeps promising to keep getting worse.

    Amid China’s many crackdowns is a crackdown on energy consumption, motivated by a slew of reasons, including most pressingly, spiking prices for coal and natural gas, particularly Liquefied Natural Gas. China is the second largest importer of LNG behind Japan. As Europe and Asia compete for supply, the price of LNG for November delivery to Japan and Korea has exploded to $27.45 per million British thermal units on the NYMEX, up from the $6-range a year ago”

    • Thanks for the link. This is evidence that LNG high prices are spilling over to China. Part of China’s gas comes by pipelines from Russia+. I am sure it is sold on a contract basis, so its price is still fairly low.

      China also has a major coal problem. We know that there were rolling blackouts last winter. There were warnings of possible blackouts this summer, but I don’t know whether those happened. Cutbacks in air conditioning might have been enough.

      There is a chart in the post showing LNG Japan/Korea Futures for November 2021 Delivery at $27.49, up from $6 a year ago.The article reports:

      In addition to the spike in energy prices, there are the government’s efforts to reduce emissions and to tamp down on the growth of energy consumption. To that effect, China has imposed a number of policies. The crackdown on bitcoin mining falls into this category.

      This crackdown on energy consumption, handed down from Beijing to provinces and cities, is now taking the form of suspensions or reductions of industrial electricity supply that manufacturers in numerous industries are hit with, including key facilities that produce components for Apple, Tesla, Intel, Nvidia, Qualcomm, NXP, Infineon, and ASE Tech, along with many smaller manufacturers. They’re now under orders to temporarily halt production.

      The provinces that haven’t lived up to Beijing’s demands to reduce total energy consumption are having to hand out suspensions of industrial electricity supply; they include the provinces of Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang, according the Nikkei Asia. Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and other provinces are subject to restrictions on industrial electricity supply.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        The provinces that haven’t lived up to Beijing’s demands to reduce total energy consumption


    • jodytishmack says:

      This is the problem with a Central government vs a network system. Xi Jinping has decided what the Chinese country is going to become. It’s doubtful that he will succeed. China has become an economic powerhouse because of its hybrid communist/capitalist system. Now XI is trying to assert the communist control but he may very well find that he kills the goose that laid the golden eggs.
      Systems analyses explorers emergent behaviors but has little idea of how or why they occur. We simply know they do. Organic growth is never in the form of a hierarchy, but rather in the form of a network. Perhaps this is why the internet grew so fast and has become so influential. The age of top down control has passed, the era of networks has arrived. Influence will be local, maybe regional, but not global. Resources will be shared regionally. Survival will be weather dependent.

      • “Organic growth is never in the form of a hierarchy, but rather in the form of a network. . .The age of top down control has passed, the era of networks has arrived. Influence will be local, maybe regional, but not global. Resources will be shared regionally. Survival will be weather dependent.”

        Very good points. And I agree that Xi could very well kill the good that laid the golden eggs.

        This is not the way to solve the energy problem, but I am not sure what is. Let prices go up, and let the high prices push businesses that cannot handle them into bankruptcy? It is hard to make big changes, when everything depends on control from the top. It seems like this kind of action could lead to the overthrow of Xi’s empire.

        • jodytishmack says:

          I think if we accept the premise that the earth’s natural systems (in the absence of fossil fuel exploitation) can support far fewer humans we will realize that 8 billion humans is far too many. Some suggest that in the absence of fossil energy the earth can only support 1 to 1.5 billion humans. This suggests that we face a significant decline in population. Trying to keep people alive as long as possible is not advantageous. Yet this seems to be the current strategy. Perhaps accepting the inevitable is a better strategy.

      • Actually, the situation is likely more nuanced.

        RT just had prof. Michael Hudson on and he said the Chinese leadership decided to clamp down on their tech and RE giants because the systemic fork ahead would turn the country into predominantly western style rentier type of a system, which is not desirable in his / their view. So that high cost living, rentier and monopolistic structure depended model was denied from taking over that show for now..

        In more basic terms ~ Xi boyz ~ are sort of trying to trim (pause) a fruit bearing tree over growth to some specific development – size stage. Is it prudent, desirable, wise, who knows?

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Well we know that is just ridiculous… grow or collapse… there is no trimming back of the fruit tree.

          And since growth is now impossible due to high priced energy…. then collapse it will be.

          But first… hopefully we can complete the CEP…. uncontrolled collapse with billions trapped in unheated homes starving…. that’s rather horrific ending….

          • Not necessarily, lot of permutations and sequencing there, as this nationalistic ruling faction in China could be eventually toppled by the rising oligarchs, and resulting chaos (fin downgrade) could provide extra few more years of ~opulent muddling through for the West.

            And inversely Xi turning the country (secluding) away from Western market demands could lead to Byzantium 2.0 aka West falling into dark ages first.

            Obviously, (and / or / furthermore) these days someone could push “that silo button” and the end comes just in few minutes / hours all across the globe.

            • Rodster says:

              “this nationalistic ruling faction in China could be eventually toppled by the rising oligarchs, and resulting chaos (fin downgrade) could provide extra few more years of ~opulent muddling through for the West.”

              It appears to me that Gov’ts on both sides are trying to do that to the other. Governments around the world maybe seeing the writing on the wall and it then becomes a case for “survival of the fittest”.

              You can only borrow from the future for so long before debt levels turn into debt mountains. That’s where we are today and it’s a global problem.

        • Perhaps China understands that it needs to simplify. It knows it is short of fuel. It knows intermittent renewable energy is going nowhere. Technology will be needed less in the future. It knows it can’t afford to build many new high rise condominium homes. It is trimming back in areas that are clearly dead ends.

          I don’t think that Michael Hudson understand the energy problem.

          • I’m not big student / devote of his but arguably being the author of the best super-imperialism analysis how the world works out there (since early 1970s), perhaps he at least addressed the LtG somewhere to some degree, I don’t know..

      • Alex says:

        Those eggs weren’t golden; they were only gold-plated. Xi sees that the U.S. strategy, to just close eyes and keep blowing the bubble, has inevitable ending, which is hardly worth copying. Sure, having a different political system allows him to steer the wheel aggressively.

  22. Jimothy says:

    Gail, you mentioned your trees have had a little difficulty. These will probably do well for you. They’re located in the south and carry heritage things that tend to do well without much intervention.
    Their prices are also excellent

    • Thanks for the information. It does sound Hidden Springs Nursery offers more plants that can be grown without a lot of spraying and fertilizing. I see the nursery is located in Cookeville, Tennessee, which would be a little north of where I live.

      • Jimothy says:

        It should work for your area, even if the climates are a little different. I’ve used their trees out west (though I have to be careful about which ones I select for that purpose) and will probably send some to family in the Northeast

  23. jodytishmack says:

    An interesting take on the energy problems in the UK. The article appears to conclude that as countries make the transition to renewable energy sources, which are intermittent, they must have dependable back ups available. The UK’s back up plan, and the reason they have problems now, was natural gas bought on the spot market. As prices surged, some companies were forced to shut down because it’s not clear who pays the higher prices for electricity or gas. They recommend coal fired power plants stay available as back ups.

    I see several problems with the world’s approach to net zero carbon. First and foremost, governments and industry are trying to keep energy monopolies in the hands of utility industry rather than help install distributed energy, i.e. on roof tops everywhere. In my state of Indiana the utility lobby and the Republican “pro business” legislature has made it more costly for home owners to install solar energy, while supporting mega wind and solar farms. The result is still as “business as usual” approach and it’s not working.

    The second issue I see is the mistaken mindset that the global economy can continue expanding WHILE transitioning to renewable energy. It will simply rely on growth in climate change technology such as carbon capture, or green energy, etc. No one is being told the truth, that in the absence of cheap, portable, flexible fossil fuels we simply cannot continue expanding the global economy. The global economy is controlled by financial markets whose only concern is return on investments. It doesn’t matter what we invest in as long as it pays a good return. Low interest rates, tax cuts, and wealth consolidation have led to the formation of a few billionaires and a few mega corporations who control most of the global market. China appears to be willing to crash their market in order to prevent the take over by companies such as Evergrande. The US and Europe are not. Our governments will do whatever it takes to keep business-as-usual going forever. A feat we know is impossible.

    I see lots of cracks in the economy widening quickly. It will be an interesting winter.

    • I don’t really agree with you. I agree with the Fortune article that indicates that coal should be considered for backup as well. I expect that it will also be expensive to access, however.

      I am afraid that there will never be a transition to renewable energy, other than wood and burned animal dung. What happens is that somehow the economy shrinks back to a lot fewer people. There may be some simplifications that takes place, that allows some sectors of the economy to sort of continue, at least for a while. Otherwise, we are headed into the collapse part of overshoot and collapse.

      I am afraid that climate change technology is pretty much a myth that is being used to cover our energy problems. It gives us hope, even if not warranted.

      I do agree with, “I see lots of cracks in the economy widening quickly. It will be an interesting winter.”

      • jodytishmack says:

        “There will never be a transition to renewable energy”….for everyone. I transitioned to renewable energy 10 years ago I would say that some people in some places will utilize renewable energy to support their home or community. I think of it this way…we can do nothing, pay higher energy bills, rebuild our homes after weather disasters and waste our time, energy, and money….or, we can create a home with renewable energy, land, water, fertile soils, forests, etc. that will provide for us as fossil energy becomes more limited and expensive. Such people have a better chance of surviving what is to come.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Worshipping the Ponds:

        Isn’t it rather amazing …. we are the few who understand the true nature of the situation … The cattle that surround us go about chewing their cuds… getting their injections … with the expectation that this difficult period will soon be behind us… and they’ll soon return to pillaging the planet…

        If they knew they would lose their minds.

    • postkey says:

      ” The UK in contrast actively closed coal plants and allowed nuclear to be retired so that gas became the only means by which we could balance the intermittency from wind.

      This would have been foolish enough anywhere in the world. But in a northern country which also depends upon gas for home heating and cooking as well as for much of what remains of its industry, it was positively insane. There again, Britain’s wholesale energy market was designed to be insane from the beginning because its sole focus was on keeping prices artificially low for consumers – which is why a host of energy supply companies with unrealistic business models have been crashing in recent years. We can’t it seems have our electricity back-up and heat our homes with it too. Nor, having closed our mines and coal power stations, can we afford to go back.”

      • Minority of One says:

        I don’t think coal can be used to balance wind, and nuclear certainly can’t. You need something that can be switched on and off more or less instantly, and the only fuel that can do that is gas.

        In other words, if you go for wind electricity generation big time, like the UK and in particular Scotland has, you have to have lots of gas available to back it up.

  24. Mirror on the wall says:

    I suspected as much: HGV drivers in EU are resistant to the idea of coming to Britain to help out. The Brexit vote effectively told them that they were not wanted here. Estimations are that Britain has lost 60,000 EU HGV drivers and 40,000 Brit drivers. EU drivers are not minded to help out on the basis of ‘think yourself lucky and clear off by Christmas.’ Britain made its own bed and EU drivers are minded to let it lie in it.

    The feeling is that the entire industry needs an overhaul and that supply disruptions are likely to continue for years.

    > EU lorry drivers will not help Britain ease its fuel crisis, union says

    HGV drivers from the European Union will not come to the UK on short-term contracts to ease the fuel crisis under government proposals announced at the weekend due to poor working conditions in the industry, a union official in Europe has warned.

    “The EU workers we speak to will not go to the UK for a short-term visa to help the UK out of the sh/t they created themselves,” said Edwin Atema, the head of research and enforcement at the Netherlands-based FNV union, which represents drivers across the bloc.

    “In the short term, I think that will be a dead end,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme. “I think some kind of Marshall plan would be needed to drag the whole industry back to the surface.”

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      The use of 500 soldiers to offset a shortage of 100,000 HGV drivers was always completely daft – as is the offer of 5,000 short-term visas for EU HGV drivers. The Tory government is effectively doing absolutely nothing while supply lines shut down. The UK is without any functional government now.

      > The Army’s NOT coming! Ministers rule out soldiers driving fuel tankers to ease petrol crisis despite panic-buying feared to last THREE more days… as thousands WFH after 90% of pumps run dry

      Tens of thousands more Britons are working from home today as the fuel crisis saw up to nine in ten forecourts run dry leaving NHS staff including doctors and nurses without petrol and schools planning a return to online learning because teachers can’t fill up their cars.

      Drivers queued for four hours or more in lines stretching for miles and some even slept in their cars outside petrol stations as it was revealed Boris Johnson could call in the Army to deliver petrol and diesel across Britain amid a crisis that has seen competition laws suspended to allow businesses such as Shell and BP to share drivers.

      But as Boris Johnson considered emergency plans to halt the petrol panic, Environment Secretary George Eustice has said the Government has ‘no plans at the moment’ to use soliders to drive petrol tankers amid continuing shortages at filling stations.

      A lack of fuel has led to a mass return to working from home today, just weeks after the Government lifted most coronavirus-related legislation to get more people into the office. TomTom traffic data revealed that congestion is down today in all major cities compared to when the chaos began last week.

      • A return to “a mass working from home.” How many people who knew about the true energy shortage would have ever guessed this?

        COVID shut-ins in Australia and New Zealand have a similar fuel-saving feature. So does cutting off vacation flights in and out of these countries.

        • Mirror on the wall says:

          Yes, I have been reluctant to point out that a dearth of HGV drivers, and the slowing of supply lines because of that, dovetails with a broader energetic situation.

          Like the ‘green agenda’, and c 19, HGV- adequately ‘explains’ on a surface level issues that run deeper – just how far deeper is the point.

          I certainly do not want to go for the ‘conspiracy’ angle. And I am reluctant to employ the ‘epiphenomenal dissipative’ perspective – although that does seem to have a lot going for it, it is difficult to ‘prove’.

          An intricate energetic/ economic/ financial ’cause and effect’ is probably the way to go to ‘explain’ things. – While not leaving out political incompetence where that is relevant.

        • D. Stevens says:

          My employer plans to keep most work from home going indefinitely. There was a return to office date set for September 1st but they change course and purchased more computer and office equipment for remote workers. Years ago I suspected we’d reach a point where car commuting daily would be impractical due to energy limits. Had the foresight to move within walking distance of work but I never imagined it would turn out like this instead of a typical ration scheme. I expect to be terminated soon due to the mandate so the plan to go car-free and walk to work will be a bust. Hopefully the stores and post office also within walking distance stay open for the foreseeable future. This factory town existed 200 years prior to the car so I hoped it would continue to exist but now I’m not sure.

          • I am sorry to hear about your difficulties. Good luck! Maybe you can keep your current job, or take over the job of one of your co-workers.

            I expect that situations are going to change a lot of places, in the next year or two. For example, government pensions and other pensions are one area that need to be cut back to have enough to go around. Or maybe the states get to take them over.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      Well, it did not take long for feral antics to appear. 24 hours. Vehicles are ruined by thieves just to steal a tank of petrol.

      It is going to be an absolutely ruthless ‘one for one, and none for all’ when things get worse here.

      > Thieves drill holes in parked cars to steal fuel after panic buying sparks petrol shortage

      Thieves are drilling holes into parked cars to steal fuel after panic buying sparked a petrol shortage. Forecourts up and down the country are drying up as the pump chaos caused by hoarders and a shortage of HGV drivers continues. Now, heartless thieves are cashing in by launching vicious schemes to steal fuel.

      In one video – believed to be shot in Birmingham – Shadrack Olaloko tells how his car was targeted by thugs on Sunday. He said: “What these guys did was they came and drained out all my fuel in the tank. My car uses diesel. Normally I lock my car, I don’t joke with it.”

      The thieves forced his petrol cap open from the hatch in the side of the car, before going underneath.

      “They made a hole in my tank. Can you see? They made a hole and drained out all the diesel. A full tank of diesel. They drained everything out and then they left.”

      He then describes how the van parked next to him also suffered the same treatment.

      It comes as Boris Johnson considers emergency plans to end Britain’s petrol panic – with industry bosses fearing the fuel crisis could last at least another week.

      • D. Stevens says:

        Short sighted waste of resources fighting over what remains. Imagine the embodied energy manufacturing replacement fuel tanks or if that was an hvac repair van which can no longer make service calls. Will people start killing each other over a tank of guzzoline? I have doubts about the CEP because it’s too comforting thinking there’s a plan to deal with what’s coming.

      • Back when oil price spikes occurred in the 1970s, there were not locks on gasoline tanks, so thieves could get the fuel out more easily. Maybe that wasn’t a bad idea.

      • Olaloko sounds like a Nigerian name

        Guess it happened where the usual suspect lingered

        • Mirror on the wall says:

          You seriously think that only Nigerians commit crime in UK?

          You have not got a clue about the country that you are talking about.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        And Doomie Preppers think they’ll be left alone to enjoy their organic oatmeal…

        hahahahahaha… hahahahahaha… delusion is so wonderful

  25. Fast Eddy says:

    After reading this… and tying in the OFW article… the CEP needs to happen NOW.

    • rufustiresias999 says:

      I’m starting to get nervous. My physician says I have to relax, change my “point of view” regarding the world. He has no f*g idea what is my view regarding the world.

      • Rodster says:

        In a way he’s right. We’re all dead regardless, something or someone will see to it that we are off this planet. So you might as well make the best of it or enjoy it while you are still alive.

      • Kowalainen says:

        Exactly, my default “act” is the light hearted buffoonish tech nerd. If they knew.

        Never stir in a can of dystopia. Occasionally it happens that some unfortunate soul pokes a bit on my views of the “future”. That usually just happens once. I particularly enjoy when what I suspect is an “asset” wants to know what I think of geopolitics with the “role” of Sweden in particular. A few brazen remarks and then I go full tilt into energy depletion.

        However the regular herd member need their hopiate. Let them have the jab of a glorious tomorrow as they sink into the mists of delusion. We’re all walking dead nonetheless. Perhaps we can avoid appalling starvation and horrendous drudgery as we close down IC for this time around in the wheel of time.

        Wind turbines and solar panels. Hallelujah!

        Signing off,

      • Azure Kingfisher says:

        “I feel myself driven towards an end that I do not know. As soon as I have reached it, as soon as I shall become unnecessary, an atom will suffice to shatter me. Until then, all the forces of mankind can do nothing to stop me.” – Napoleon Bonaparte

        Embrace Napoleon. You’ll go when it is your time and not a second before.

        Consider that you are a spiritual being having a human experience and that there is more to this universe than materialism. What you don’t know will always remain greater than what you do know. You’ve been given a finite life and within that experience there are certain limitations. Accept them and live accordingly in order to reach contentment.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        If you inform him of the CEP he’ll commit you to the crazy house….

        He’s so close now though… so very close…

      • Jarle says:

        “My physician says I have to relax, change my “point of view” regarding the world.”

        Yeah, just unsee what you’ve seen …

        • Kowalainen says:

          He’s right about the ‘relax’.

          It is folly to be stressed out about the inevitable. For sure IC is on the ropes, but where would being anxious help?

          The rapacious primate affairs doesn’t scale. Thus the perpetual boom and bust cycles with stagnation sprinkled in between.

          It is what it is.

    • This is a great article in Spanish by Antonio Turiel. It has a lot of nice graphs in English.

      As I understand the Google Translate version of the article, Antonio wrote an article in 2015 called “The peak of natural gas,” in which forecast peak world natural gas by 2020. In that article, he showed this chart by the Energy Watch Group, showing that that European natural gas supplies were likely to become constrained, even before 2020, because “gas is more easily transported by pipeline and the main suppliers in Europe were entering their production decline, and transportation by methane tanker has many limitations.”

      He shows graphs of Russian and Algerian natural gas production and consumption, since these are the pipeline exporters to Europe. Antonio remarks:

      “Successive Russian energy ministers have been warning for years that Russia’s oil and gas production is peaking and will begin to decline in the coming years. Furthermore, it has already been made clear that Russia will prioritize domestic consumption over exports; In fact, when you look at Russia’s natural gas consumption, you see that the significant rise in 2017 and 2018 basically served to cover self-consumption needs.”

      He also shows a nice BBC chart using Bloomberg data showing the extent to which natural gas prices have spiked.

      This chart shows peaks of $25 for Dutch TTF/Europe; $28 for Japan/Asia, $24 for UK; and $5 for US. Multiply these amounts by 6 to get barrel of oil heat equivalent prices. They are up near $100, except for the US, where the natural gas price comes to an oil equivalent of $30.

  26. Fred says:

    Gail’s killer graph is Fig 3 that shows a noticeable dip in fuel consumption for the last 2 years or so. That’s probably enough to send us over the Seneca cliff.

    As a longterm Peak Oiler I’ve debated how the end would play out over the years, but never expected a pandemic to be used as cover.

    TPTB are damned smart the way they’ve taken control of all critical institutions that might speak out against the mass vaxx. Here in Oz they’ve even got the Unions, a traditional working class stronghold, sewn up.

    Did they anticipate the supply chain disruption that lockdowns caused, or the cult-ish rush to green energy, both of which are making collapse quicker.

    Their objective to get the population down to 500B is in the public domain, ref Agenda 21 etc. But the bit I don’t understand yet is how the hell do you run a functioning industrial society supporting 500B with a random collection of survivors? Who’s going to operate critical infrastructure?

    Living out your life in underground bases would suck surely, so do they want to suicide themselves too? Questions, questions . . .

    Note on vaccines and ADE:

    The vaccines stimulate the body to generate the spike protein, but this by itself is pathogenic and causes damage all around the body, esp. to the immune system. Whistleblower med staff say the so-called delta variant is mostly vax injured people.

    Each booster will cause more damage via extra spike proteins, so you get to the point where regular diseases e.g. colds and flu will knock people off. In other words you don’t actually need ADE to get the job done.

    Good discussion here:

  27. Fast Eddy says:

    The vaccine programme has slowed considerably in recent weeks, with its worst day for first doses since early-July on Sunday.

    But Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says her Government is still consulting on the possibility of vaccine certificates, which could drive the rates up.

    Just 144,000 people had a first dose of the vaccine in the last week, a massive drop from 387,000 people in the first week of September.

    • Peak COVID vaccinations?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I am not waiting for the passports to roll out… and complete loss of freedom….

        This could result in 5000 comments on every OFW article…. norm — can you ring Donkey Face and plead with her not to lock FE down…

        Otherwise it will be non-stop American Moon

  28. Fast Eddy says:

    Vaccine injured and friends and family attack Prime Minister


    The New Zealand Prime Minister’s facebook page is still reeling from a PR (public relations) nightmare, after a post that encouraged the public to talk about vaccine side effects exploded.

    On Saturday 25 September the NZ testimonials facebook page, which allowed members to report vaccine injuries direcly and had over 17,000 members, was shut down. The following day, Jacinda Ardern addressed the elephant in the room on her facebook page about the growing narrative of vaccine hesistancy, spurred by people sharing stories of the negative side effects of the vaccine including myocarditis, shingles, blood clots, heart attacks, seizures and death.

    Unlike media, such as TV, print and online, social media is a two way communication and operating it gives a demographic of people who have had a negative perception of you or your company access to your entire audience.

    The Prime minister told her own story of her post COVID vax experience stating she just had a sore arm and felt weary following it. A meme attached stated ‘Lets talk about side effects’ which in hindsight seems like perhaps it was a rhetorical question as what followed was over 19,800 comments, many of which were deleted by her admin team. Ardern’s FB posts typically attract between 2-3,000 comments.


    • A person would think that Jacinda Ardern have figured out what would happen if people were allowed to discuss the side effects of the vaccine on Facebook.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Well… she’s never had a proper job in her entire life…. not even bagging groceries at the Countdown…. and she lives in a delusional koombaya world….

        But you’d have thought the PR Team might have stopped this…. maybe she got all drunk the other night … smoked a bit of meth… and convinced herself that this was a good idea?

  29. Student says:

    Hello Gail, hello All, in case you haven’t seen yet, I found this article by Antonio Turiel very interesting.
    He touches the same subject explained by Gail and he doesn’t see it so differently.
    I’m also glad to see that this article sees the problem about truck drivers in the same way I described previously (but for the rest is only to learn for me of course).
    I hope you will find it interesting.
    Have a nice day, compatibly with CEP….

  30. Fast Eddy says:

    “The Future Ain’t What It Use To Be”

    Here is a cool (SPC) tool that projects Permian HZ tight oil production out nine years, to the end of 2029. The assumptions are that a.) the current rig count does not change, b.) the same rigs can keep drilling the exact same number of wells per month, c.) the lag time between drilling and completing remains the same, d.) and well productivity (liquids, C+C) never changes, all wells are exactly the same, It ignores DUC contributions that might make production levels go up or down and considers decline from existing wells drilled before September 2021 and decline from new wells drilled after that date. This SPC feature is fun and useful for making assumptions, guesses, about the future based on past results.

    The chart, above, could give folks the idea that tight oil PDP reserve replacement in the Permian is still over 100%, even at half the rig count and half the CAPEX expenditures, production is still growing and everything is peachy for many years to come. Lets think about that…

    Most of that good news coming from the Permian Basin is in New Mexico where they have been drilling the snot out of Lea and Eddy Counties, I assume because of Biden’s Federal permit restrictions. 52% of all oil and gas leases in Lea County are Federal (BLM website).

    Twenty two percent of all the rigs running in the entire Permian Basin are running in Lea County. New Mexico, in its regulatory wisdom, is putting an end to using potable groundwater for frac’ing and is trucking IT”S produced water to West Texas so we can have earthquakes here, in Texas, and not there, in New Mexico. Its clamping down on flaring and well…those boys up there in New Mexico are in a hurry to get those wells all drilled, before they can’t.

    Remove Lea and Eddy Counties in New Mexico from the picture and the Texas part of the HZ Permian play is struggling to maintain current production levels at current rig counts.

    Some good charts and more

    • Thanks! It is pretty clear that the direction of the production must be generally down, unless prices and drilling rise a lot.

      I got an email today offering to sell me a report (for several thousand dollars) that shows US oil production at something around the 2019 level in 2030. The reports say what people want to hear.

  31. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Cargo Delays Are Getting Worse, but California Ports Still Rest on Weekends.

    “Despite mounting shipping delays and cargo backlogs, the busiest U.S. port complex shuts its gates for hours on most days and remains closed on Sundays. Meanwhile, major ports in Asia and Europe have operated round-the-clock for years.”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Container ships now piling up at anchorages off China’s ports.

      “There are over 60 container ships full of import cargo stuck offshore of Los Angeles and Long Beach, but there are more than double that — 154 as of Friday — waiting to load export cargo off Shanghai and Ningbo in China…”

      • jodytishmack says:

        Across the world we hear about labor shortages. Where did all the people who need jobs go? In the US restaurants and other service industries are cutting back hours of operation because they say they cannot find workers. Some blame the extra money paid to unemployed as the problem but that changed in most states months ago. And even if the government handed out several thousand dollars to families, that money wouldn’t last long. So why aren’t more people available to work?

        • Mothers want to stay at home with their children, when day care options are unavailable and schools may not be open. People nearing retirement age decide to take retirement early. Young people who might go out and look for jobs stay with their parents longer. Some of them, who have trouble in the job market, start taking drugs and drop out of society. Depression becomes a big problem among young people.

        • Minority of One says:

          Here in the UK, the BBC, the main source of news for most people, are still at it, day after day, every main news show, latest propaganda statistics on CV19. Not so many deaths these days, more how many tested +ve for sars-cov-2, plus any one-off items that make the situation seem much worse than it actually is. They do quite an outstanding job of making the sars-cov-2 numbers look very high. I don’t live in that world, but if I did and I absorbed all the propaganda, I would not be looking for a new job that involved mixing with people every day that could kill me. Not if I had a partner or parents, or social security, that could support me.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            To create mutation factories… it is necessary for the Injected CovIDIOTS to be infected by Covid…

            What better way to do that than to give them CovIDIOCY passports — it’s like stamping ‘I am an Idiot’ on their foreheads…

            They can then go to public places like restaurants and Justin Bieber concerts and smugly high five each other … this ensures that those with slight Covid symptoms spread the virus … and bring us closer to The Nightmare Scenario….

      • Delays everywhere!

    • The problem just gets worse and worse.

  32. Harry McGibbs says:

    “In charts: bonds with negative yields around the world…

    “Bonds worth $14.8tn — more than a fifth (21.6 per cent) of the debt issued by governments and companies around the world — are currently trading with negative yields…”

  33. Fast Eddy says:

    This winter, the world will be fighting over something that’s invisible, yet rarely so vital—and in alarmingly shorter supply.

    Nations are more reliant than ever on natural gas to heat homes and power industries amid efforts to quit coal and increase the use of cleaner energy sources. But there isn’t enough gas to fuel the post-pandemic recovery and refill depleted stocks before the cold months. Countries are trying to outbid one another for supplies as exporters such as Russia move to keep more natural gas home. The crunch will get a lot worse when temperatures drop.

    The crisis in Europe presages trouble for the rest of the planet as the continent’s energy shortage has governments warning of blackouts and factories being forced to shut.

    • Rodster says:

      Kind of like this story?

      “Just how bad could things get this winter? European energy crisis is about to go global”

      • Fast Eddy says:

        What’s gone global is the press release informing us that the energy crisis is going global shortly.

      • Excerpt from the article:

        Industrial Energy Consumers of America, an organization representing companies producing chemicals, food, and materials, asked the Department of Energy to institute limits on the exports of liquefied natural gas in order to avoid soaring prices and gas shortages during the winter, Reuters reported on Friday.

        Opinions seem to differ on whether rising LNG exports are in fact hurting US consumers. But the fact is that gas prices are already double what they were a year ago. According to the IECA, they are not, however, high enough to motivate a ramp-up in natural gas production. Therefore, in order to stockpile enough gas for the winter, the US government must force a reduction in exports.

  34. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Semiconductor suppliers suspend factory operations in China amid power crunch…

    “Multiple semiconductor suppliers for Tesla, Apple and Intel including ESON, Unimicron and ASE Groups, which have manufacturing plants in the Chinese mainland, recently announced they will suspend their factories’ operations to follow local electricity use policies.”!/semiconductor-suppliers-suspend-factory-operations-in-china-20210927

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Semiconductor firms can’t find enough workers, compounding chip shortage.

      “A survey from IPC found that 80% of chipmakers are having a hard time finding employees with the right training to handle the highly toxic compounds used to manufacture semiconductors…”

    • Fast Eddy says:

      How bizarre… but in a good way…. because this has got to be another signal that BAU is set to implode… and the vile cruel ape is about to go the way of the Moa..

      Speaking of a dirty ape … this is good

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        “…the vile cruel ape…” That seems a little pejorative, Fast Eddy. 😆 I prefer Terence McKenna’s interpretation of events:

        “It is not a matter of human decision. It is built in to the dynamics of the planet. And consequently, all this Western breast-beating and blame-taking about what we did and how we f**ked up, and all this, is a bunch of nonsense.

        “Nobody screwed up! You have to have an enormous sense of your own self-importance to believe that you got away from the control of nature and, against her wishes, were able to set the planet up for Armageddon…”

        “The purpose of history is to create a planetary crisis. And it’s doing a splendid job of it.”

        • Mirror on the wall says:

          Yes, it is noticeable that people tend to retain the moralised, judgemental perspective when they notice that humans generally are not really all that ‘moral’.

          Few are able to live in a ‘demoralised world’. Different insights, perhaps a different constitution, are needed for that.

          To condemn all humans, as immoral, objectionable has never really been that difficult – it is an extension of the everyday, inbred and socialised moralised perspective.

          The Bible often does it, ‘there is not one that doeth good, no not one, all have sinned’. Branches of Christianity have been orientated by the idea of a ‘total depravity’ of humans. And to be fair, the entire religion traditionally rests on a universal need for personal ‘salvation’ from the Fall and personal sin.

          To understand that humans are ‘worldly’, conditioned by the world that produced them – even as organisms driven by basic organic drives, and as dissipative structures driven by the forces that compel their formation – does not necessary twin with the insight that all ‘morality’ is completely imaginary, and that it is just strategies to advance various organic and dissipative ‘interests’. It tends not to twin – which may seem paradoxical.

          The ‘demoralised world’ is a distinct insight from the ‘immoral world’ and the ‘conditioned world’. If you have it, then I am genuinely impressed. Few seem to be able to ‘see’ that – and social and peer pressures are very heavily against it.

          In a sense, the general condemnation of humans is just another performative act of virtue-signalling. It is also a broad act of ‘power’ to subject all humans to one’s own judgement and condemnation. It is easy and usually inconsequential stuff and it gets really ‘old’, but by the same token, don’t expect it to stop any time soon.

          • Mirror on the wall says:

            Oops, I left off my last bit…

            The ‘moralised world’ is a key expression of the ‘will to power’, and most humans are predisposed to it for a reason – evolution bred it in. The same goes for those who are not so disposed to it. The species seems to have settled on a balance where the greater part is ‘moralised’.

          • Harry McGibbs says:

            “Few are able to live in a ‘demoralised world’.”

            My experience is that it is a question of scale – far easier of course to view human collectives or the entire human enterprise in the abstract from that standpoint than, say, an individual who mistreated someone close to me.

            I would struggle, certainly in the moment, not to make a moral judgement there, even though IMO a ‘demoralised’ wordview is equally valid and applicable on the personal level.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Curiously, traditional Lutheranism goes some way toward ‘demoralising’ the world – the world is entirely ‘immoral’ and it is ‘conditioned’ to be so (the Fall, total depravity), indeed there is no ‘free will’ (predestination), which is usually considered to be the prerequisite of moral ‘responsibility’, and indeed the ‘elect’ are not held to be ‘responsible’ (imputed righteousness) – without demoralising it.

              People can, and do, see the world as entirely ‘immoral’, ‘conditioned’, ‘unfree’ and even without imputed ‘responsibility’ (at least for the elect) – and still see it as ‘moralised’. People are strange.

    • This could be a big deal.

  35. Fast Eddy says:


    Johnson prepares to call in army as panic buying drains UK petrol pumps

    Competition rules eased with half of garages outside motorway network estimated to have no fuel

    Boris Johnson is preparing to draft in hundreds of soldiers to tackle the UK’s fuel crisis as at least half of petrol stations outside the motorway network have run out of fuel after Britons engaged in panic buying.

    The prime minister will meet senior ministers and officials on Monday to examine the latest data following the disruption to fuel supplies caused by a scarcity of tanker drivers. One senior government insider said: “The situation in England is very bad.”

    Johnson will consider using the army to drive tankers around the country, under contingency planning known as Operation Escalin.

    Brian Madderson, chair of the Petrol Retailers Association, a trade body, said a survey of members on Sunday indicated 50 to 85 per cent of all independent service stations had now run dry, excluding motorway forecourts and some supermarket sites that had been given priority by oil companies.

    • Yorchichan says:

      I received a text message this morning pleading for drivers to come out because there are zero drivers “on the board” and jobs everywhere waiting. Perhaps the fact every garage in York was out of fuel last night has something to do with it.

      I expect buses have a more reliable supply of fuel. Otherwise, time for people to rediscover the use of their legs.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Triple your fare

        • Yorchichan says:

          We are as controlled as everybody else these days. The only things I can do with my “meter” (actually now an app on a phone) is start it and stop it. All actions are monitored, and any attempt to do a job off meter could result in a large fine or loss of licence.

      • D. Stevens says:

        Do mail carriers get their fuel from retail stations in the UK as they do here in the US? Without retail refueling stations package and letter delivery will stop. So much for staying home and getting everything delivered to ones door.

        • Jarle says:

          “So much for staying home and getting everything delivered to ones door.”

          Amazon et al didn’t think of that, too busy being greedy.

        • Yorchichan says:

          Yes, I see delivery and mail drivers queueing with everybody else for fuel. Somebody told me taxi drivers get priority and can jump the queue at petrol stations, but I doubt it’s true and even if it were I’m not about to risk being lynched.

          Anyway, my supermarket had fuel this morning so I’m sorted for another two or three days. Only queued for five minutes too.

    • Well, msm told us on Friday, it’s not a big problem into the future after-all,
      so why tighten the rules on Monday and beyond? /sarc off

  36. Fast Eddy says:

    Children as young as TWO could soon get Covid shots and adults receive their boosters from Moderna vaccine made in Australia

  37. Fast Eddy says:

    Aussia protests fizzle out….

    Remember how the same happened in Hong Kong… and Burma….

  38. CTG says:

    I copied from a commenter in ZH

    For anyone who hasn’t, I suggest reading Julius Ruechel’s recent piece. It covers how immunity works, how viruses evolve and survive, why isolation is bad, and why we’ll never be able to vaccinate covid away.

    It’s actually REALLY good.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      It is therefore highly likely that the 1918 Spanish Flu would never have been more than a really bad flu season had it not been for the amplifying effect of lockdown conditions created by a world at war.

      It also raises the question, for which I don’t have an answer, whether the lockdown strategy during COVID was intentionally used to reduce spread among the healthy in order to keep the virus from fading into harmless irrelevancy. I use the word “intentionally” ― and it’s a strong word ― because the deadly second wave of the 1918 Spanish Flu and its causes are hardly secrets in the medical community.

      You’d have to be a completely reckless and utterly incompetent idiot, or a cynical bastard with an agenda, to impose any strategy that mimics those virus-amplifying conditions. Yet that’s what our health authorities did. And what they continue to do, while shamelessly hyperventilating about the risk of “variants” to force us to submit to medical tyranny based on mandatory vaccines, never-ending booster shots, and vaccine passports that can turn off access to our normal lives. This is cynicism at its finest.

      Leaky Vaccines, Antibody-Dependent Enhancement, and the Marek Effect

      The experience of the 2nd wave of the 1918 Spanish Flu also raises another question: What kind of evolutionary pressures are being created by using a leaky vaccine?

      A vaccine that provides sterilizing immunity prevents the vaccinated from being able to catch or transmit the virus. They become a dead end for the virus. However, as I’ve already mentioned, the current crop of COVID vaccines, which are meant to train the immune system to recognize the S-spike proteins, were not designed to create sterilizing immunity. By their design, they merely help reduce the risk of severe outcomes by priming the immune system.

      The vaccinated can still catch and spread the virus ― the definition of a leaky vaccine ― and epidemiological data makes it very clear that this is now happening all around the world. Thus, both the vaccinated and the unvaccinated are equally capable of producing new variants. The idea that the unvaccinated are producing variants while the vaccinated are not is a boldfaced lie.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Really good except the conclusion — that pharma wants to put 8B on a permanent vaccine schedule….

      Why would anyone – including most shareholders in big pharma – allow this…..

      Of course the author is unaware of the energy situation … and therefore would not accept that the purpose of the vaccines is the CEP….

    • Christopher says:

      Really good, thanks!

    • I agree that this article is very good.

      These is an excerpt:

      . . .those 201 respiratory viruses that cause our colds and flus are not just an inconvenience, they are nature’s solution to software updates ― even though they are dangerous to those with weak immune systems, for the rest of us our immune systems depend on them to give us partial protection against new strains that emerge through mutation or when new strains jump across species boundaries. Getting rid of those already circulating in society would make us more vulnerable to new variants that emerge. Adding another 200 will make us even safer once we get our first contact behind us.

      Eradicating a relatively benign respiratory virus is therefore not a desirable goal. But making it fade into the background is a desirable public health goal so that what was once dangerous can now keep protecting us against the next one through cross-reactive immunity. Focused protection for the vulnerable, not lockdowns, was always the only realistic public health response to this respiratory virus, unless someone wanted to seize the opportunity as a way to rope the public into mass vaccinations.

      Nature evolved this fascinating strategy of self-updating immunological countermeasures by continually testing us with mild versions of previous closely related respiratory viruses. Our immune system is therefore somewhat similar to an Olympic weightlifter whose muscles not only stay strong but get even stronger by routinely putting his muscles under a little bit of stress. Our immune system functions the same way ― it must be continually stress-tested with mild challenges to these fast-mutating viruses in order to develop the robust arsenal of defenses to keep us safe. It is a concept called anti-fragility, which was described in detail by Nassim Taleb in his ground-breaking book, Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder. Once you understand this concept, your fear of “variants” will rapidly dissolve.


      The eradication of these fast-mutating respiratory viruses is therefore not just unachievable, it would actually be dangerous if we succeeded because it would eliminate the security updates that we need to protect us against new variants that crawl out of bat caves or jump species boundaries. This year’s runny nose is your protection against COVID-23. Your cross-reactive immunity to last years annoying flu might just save your life if something truly dangerous arrives, as long as it is at least somewhat related to what your immune system has seen before. COVID could easily have turned out to be as dangerous to us as the Spanish Flu if it hadn’t been for the saving grace of cross-reactive immunity. As this study shows, up to 90-99% of us already had some level of protection to COVID thanks to partial cross-reactive immunity gained from exposure to other coronaviruses. The high percentage of infections that turn out to be asymptomatic bears that out.

      The two complaints I would have about this article are

      1. The author, Julius Ruchel, is a blogger, not someone in the health care field. (Sort of like me.) He clearly has done a lot of research and has good understanding of the subject, however.

      2. The title is “The Snake-Oil Salesmen and the COVID-Zero Con: A Classic Bait-And-Switch for a Lifetime of Booster Shots (Immunity as a Service).” In fact, there are many places he says things like, “We have been sold a fantasy designed to rope us into a pharmaceutical dependency as a deceitful trade-off for access to our lives.”

      While this is true, it is likely to be hard to get someone who has their mind already made up that vaccines will save us to read this article.

  39. China’s government brought this on themselves. Difficult to say how far Evergrande fallout will spread.

    • I think the issue is that they don’t have enough energy supplies to waste them on building more residential housing (especially since there seem to be many extra unoccupied properties already).

      • Minority of One says:

        >>especially since there seem to be many extra unoccupied properties already

        I read another article last week, that stated about 170M empty properties in China (think ghost cities). Even if the lower estimate of 50 M were put on the market, that would cause the market to well and truly crash into oblivion.

        • I don’t think that the properties are in very good locations, however. Or quite a few of them are not. Some of them were built in Ordos, which I visited in 2015. The coal industry had been expected to take off by then in Ordos, but it didn’t. There was a fancy four lane pretty much unoccupied highway and an airport with hardly any people or open stores.

          • Minority of One says:

            Some of the ghost city videos on YT look they are from a distinctly post-apocalyptic future. Cities with almost no-one living in them.

    • CTG says:

      It has to be “the cupboard is bare”. When did China ever serious on environment or climate especially now during the time where Evergrande is still unfolding?

    • D. Stevens says:

      Blackouts, especially unplanned, can damage sensitive commercial and industrial equipment which is then costly and time consuming to replace. I wonder if it takes a toll on the power grid itself? Likely.

  40. Bei Dawei says:

    Chris Chan has just written a letter from jail announcing that he is Jesus Christ.

  41. Fast Eddy says:

    Sweden is on board with the CEP!

    On vaccinations:

    I think the big change, since we talked last time, is really the vaccinations. There, we really found the tool that’s going to make the difference. And all the other things we have tried are not going to be very important anymore, because reaching and achieving a high vaccination level is the one way we can get out of this pandemic. There does not seem to be any other way, really. – ANDERS TEGNELL

  42. Trousers says:

    It’s near impossible to buy fuel in the UK tonight.

    Almost every forecourt has run dry. Of the few remaining open, they all have long queues.

    • Yep, even mid last week there were vid accounts of people queuing around 6am already yet knowing it’s dry anyway.. Unless this effects in ricochet-snowballing fashion the fin – scammers in the City as well, it remains to be an isolated oddball ~non event~ though in the great scheme of things..

  43. Fast Eddy says:

    Hmmmm…. a touch of ADE?

    Some Brits say they are suffering from their “worst cold ever” as scientists warn that the decline in flu immunity during continued lockdowns could lead to a difficult winter.

    For Rebecca London, 24, from Bournemouth, a usual cold would mean “a runny nose, sneezing, a bit of a sore throat and feeling a bit rundown”.

    “Nothing like this,” she told the BBC, saying she could barely sleep during her illness, which numerous lateral flow tests confirmed was not Covid.

    Others have spoken of being “floored” by their colds, some of which lasted for more than a month.

    Dr. Philippa Kaye, a GP in London, told the broadcaster: “We’ve actually been seeing a rise in the number of coughs and colds and viral infections.

    “We are mixing in a way that we haven’t been mixing over the past 18 months.

    “During those first lockdowns, we saw numbers of other [non-Covid] infections fall. We think that that was primarily due to the restrictions on meeting up.”

    In more positive news, the World Health Organisation’s latest influenza update suggested that global cases were “at lower levels” than predicted for this time of year, despite fears of mass outbreaks.

    However, with winter approaching, the situation could get worse, as Professor Anthony Harnden, the Deputy Chair of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, has warned. He said that low flu immunity “could be potentially a bigger problem this winter than Covid”.

    • We seem to be trying a huge experiment of keeping people away from each other, and then letting them mix again. Just doing that could make “normal” viruses worse.

    • JMS says:

      ADE galore (probably camouflaged by the Zientists as a more lethal variant of the pseudo-virus sarscov-2) is what I expect to see this winter, since the “covid-21” mentioned by the Canadian leak is indispensable for the consolidation of the new totalitarian normal. So any other result than an exponential increase in “covid deaths” this winter would be a complete surprise to me.

    • JesseJames says:

      My son who is double jabbed unfortunately, and that even after he had a very mild case of Covid, well he caught a cold….in the middle of summer. Turns out the cold was going around work.
      ADE enhancement?

    • Fred says:

      Really simple explanation. The ‘vaccine’ (actually experimental gene therapy) causes your body to generate spike proteins, which are pathogenic.

      Best case your immune system is damaged unbeknownst to you, thus you get sick a lot easier. Worst case you immediately get injured, or die.

      Every vaccine or booster causes more damage.

  44. wratfink says:

    This may have something to do with the shortage of natgas in Europe. An important part of the supply chain in Russia is shut down due to a fire and since they were going to upgrade it anyway, they will not be bringing it back online until next year when the upgrades are finished. The story is from last month so the effects could just be hitting Europe now.

    • These outages get to be more important, as we get close to limits. The semiconductor shortage partly resulted from a fire in Japan. The US natural gas and oil reduction is partly related to a couple of hurricanes (besides investors getting fed up with too low return on their investment). Fixing everything that is broken takes longer with broken supply lines. Eventually, whatever breaks will have to stay broken.

  45. Yoshua says:

    Slaves that fled to Haiti are now voluntarily returning to America.

    Things are so bad that not even their slave owners want them back.

  46. Yoshua says:

    The communist party probably won the parliamentary election in Russia. Election fraud was wide spread in favour of Putin’s United Russia, who declared victory with 50% of the votes.

    There seems to be a lot of poverty among the pensioners in Russia.

    Pensioners fighting over discarded food:

    • gpdawson2016 says:

      “ The communist party probably won the parliamentary election in Russia”….irony is not dead!

    • When we visited Russia in 2012, we visited a few homes. My impression was that even for well educated people, the standard of living was not very high. I don’t think things have been improving, either.

      • Yep, the first wave of post WWII high rise apartment bldgs (1950-60s) had shared toilets on the floor! and only in ~1970-80s style upgraded to each in every flat.

        Not bad considering the country almost bled out from Western+ invasion, rolling waves of embargoes etc..

        Outsiders / different historical pathway experiencing people lack the perspective of total war and its discontents (+none or limited leverage fiat).

        ps it’s kind of bizzare crazy as the really top echelons (uber top scientists, artists) got to enjoy (not ownership) these pre 1917 mansions, which were inconveniently too large to live in paradoxically..

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