Spike in energy prices suggests that sharp changes are ahead

An analysis of what is going terribly wrong in the world economy

The world economy requires stability. People living in the world economy need stability, as well. They need food every day and a place to live. Children need a home situation that they can count on.

Back in the 1950 to 1979 era, when energy supplies of many kinds were growing rapidly, it was possible to build stability into the economic system: Jobs with a company were often long-time careers; pensions after retirement were offered; electricity was sold through regulated “utilities” that charged prices that wrapped in long-term maintenance of the electric grid and the cost of fuel, among other things.

But as high energy prices hit in the 1970s, the system became more and more strained. The mood changed. Margaret Thatcher became the Prime Minister of the UK in 1979, and Ronald Reagan became President of the United States in 1981. Under their leadership, debt was increasingly used to cover longer-term costs, and competition was encouraged. A person might say that a move toward greater complexity, but less stability, of the economic system had begun.

Now, through several iterations, the economy has become increasingly complex, with less and less redundancy to provide stability. The energy price spike that is being experienced today is a warning that something is very, very wrong. As I see the situation, the trend toward complexity has gone too far; the economic system is starting to break down. Sharp changes appear to be ahead. The world economy is shifting into contraction mode, with more and more parts of the system failing.

In this post, I will discuss some of the issues involved. It turns out that energy modelers haven’t understood how detrimental intermittency really is. They modeled intermittent electricity from renewables (wind, water and solar) as far more helpful than it really is. This has been confusing to everyone. The sharp changes that the title of this post refers to represent an early stage of economic collapse.

[1] If energy supplies are inexpensive and widely available, it is easy to build an economy.

I have written in the past about the need for energy supplies to keep the economy functioning properly being analogous to the need for food, to keep humans functioning properly.

The economy doesn’t operate on a single type of energy, any more than a human lives on a single type of food. The economy uses a portfolio of energy types. These include human labor, energy directly from sunlight, and energy from burning various types of fuels, including biomass and fossil fuels.

As long as energy sources are inexpensive and readily available, an economy can grow and provide goods and services for an increasing number of citizens. We can think of this as being analogous to, “As long as buying and preparing food takes little of our wages (or time, if we are growing it ourselves), then there are plenty of wages (or time) left over for other activities.”

But once energy prices start spiking, it looks like there is not enough to go around. In the absence of ways to hide the problem, citizens need to cut back on non-essentials, pushing the economy into recession. Or businesses stop making essential products that require natural gas or coal, such as fertilizer or fuel additives to hold emissions down. The lack of such products can, by itself, be very disruptive to an economy.

[2] Once energy supplies become constrained, energy prices tend to spike. In the early stages of these price spikes, adding complexity allows the economy to better tolerate higher energy costs.

There are many ways to work around the problem of rising energy prices, at least temporarily. For example:

  • Build vehicles, such as cars, that are smaller and more fuel efficient.
  • Extend fossil fuel supplies by building nuclear power plants, hydroelectric generating plants, wind turbines, solar panels, and geothermal electricity generation.
  • Make factories more efficient.
  • Add insulation to buildings; eliminate any cracks that might allow outside air into buildings.
  • Instead of pre-funding capital costs, use debt to transfer these costs to later purchasers of energy products.
  • Encourage competition in providing different parts of electricity production and distribution.
  • Develop time-of-day pricing for electricity, so as to keep prices down to the marginal cost of production, even though this does not, in total, repay all costs of production and distribution.
  • Cut back on routine maintenance of electricity transmission systems.
  • Purchase coal and natural gas imports using spot pricing, rather than long term contracts, as long as these seem to be lower-priced than long-term commitments.
  • Throughout the economy, take advantage of economies of scale and mechanization. Build huge companies. Replace human labor wherever possible.
  • Stimulate the economy by increasing debt availability and lowering interest rates. This is helpful because a more rapidly growing economy can withstand higher energy prices.
  • Use global supply chains to source as large a share of manufacturing inputs as possible from countries with low wages and low energy costs.
  • Build very “lean” just-in-time supply chains.
  • Create complex financial systems, with debt resold and repackaged in different ways, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds.

Together, these approaches comprise “complexity.” They tend to make the economic system less resilient. At least temporarily, they pass fewer of the higher costs of energy products through to current citizens. As a result, the economy can temporarily withstand a higher price of energy. But the system tends to become brittle and prone to failure.

[3] There are limits to added complexity. In fact, complexity limits are what are likely to make the economic system fail.

Joseph Tainter, in The Collapse of Complex Societies, makes the point that there are diminishing returns to added complexity. For example, the changes that result in the biggest gains in fuel savings for vehicles are the ones added first.

Another drawback of added complexity is the extreme wage disparity that tends to result. Instead of everyone earning close to the same amount, those at the top of the hierarchy get a disproportionate share of the wages. This is what leads to many of the problems we are seeing today. Would-be workers don’t want to apply for jobs, even when they seem to be available. Citizens become unhappy and rebellious. Lower-paid workers may not eat well, so that pandemics spread more easily.

The underlying problem is that population tends to rise, but it becomes harder and harder to produce food and other necessities with the arable land and energy resources available. Ugo Bardi uses Figure 1 to show the shape of the expected decline in goods and services produced in such a situation:

Figure 1. Seneca Cliff by Ugo Bardi.

According to Bardi, Seneca in the title refers to a statement written by Lucius Annaeus Seneca in 91 CE, “It would be of some consolation for the feebleness of ourselves and our works if all things should perish as slowly as they come into being. As it is, increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.” In fact, this shape seems to approximate the type of cycle Turchin and Nefedov observed when analyzing several agricultural civilizations that collapsed in their book Secular Cycles.

[4] An increasing amount of complexity has been added since 1981 to help compensate for rising oil and other energy prices.

The prices of commodities, including oil, tend to be extremely variable because storage is very limited, relative to the large quantities used every day. There needs to be a very close match between supply and demand, or prices will rise very high or fall very low.

Oil is exceptionally important because it is the single largest source of energy for the world economy. It is heavily used in food production and in the extraction of minerals of all types. If the price of oil increases, the price of food tends to rise, as does the price of metals of many types. Oil is also important as a transportation fuel.

In the early days, before depletion led to higher extraction costs, oil prices remained stable and low (Figure 2), as a result of utility-type pricing by the Texas Railroad Commission. Oil prices started to spike, once depletion became more of a problem.

Figure 2. Brent-equivalent oil prices in 2020 US$. Based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Economists tell us that oil and other commodity prices depend on “supply and demand.” When we look at turning points for oil prices, it becomes clear that financial manipulations play a significant role in determining oil demand. Such manipulations lead to prices that have practically nothing to do with the underlying cost of producing commodities. The huge changes in prices seem to reflect actions by central bankers to encourage or discourage lending (QE on Figure 3).

Figure 3. Monthly Brent oil prices with dates of US beginning and ending Quantitative Easing. Later Quantitative Easing did not bring oil prices back up to their prior level.

Quantitative easing (QE) makes it cheaper to borrow money. Adding QE tends to raise oil prices; deleting QE seems to reduce oil prices. These prices have little direct connection with the cost of extracting oil from the ground. Instead, prices are closely related to the amount of complexity being added to the system and whether it is having its intended impact on energy prices.

At the time of the 1973-1974 oil crisis, many people thought that the world was truly running out of oil. The petroleum industry did, indeed, succeed in extracting more. The 2005 to 2008 period was another period of concern that the world might be running out of oil. Then, in 2014, when oil prices suddenly fell, the dominant story suddenly became, “There is plenty of oil. The world’s biggest problem is climate change.”

In fact, there was no real reason to believe that the shortage situation had changed. US oil from shale had a brief run-up in production in the 2007 to 2019 period, but this production was unprofitable for producers, especially after oil prices dropped in 2014 (Figures 2 and 3). Producers of oil from shale are no longer investing very much in new production. With the sweet spots of fields depleted and this low level of investment, it will not be surprising if oil production from shale continues to fall.

Figure 4. US crude and condensate oil production for the 48 states, Alaska, and for shale basins, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.

The real story is that the supply of oil, coal and natural gas is limited by the extent to which additional complexity can be added to the economy, to keep selling prices so that they are both:

  • High enough for producers of these products, so that they can both pay adequate taxes and make adequate reinvestment.
  • Low enough for consumers, especially for the many consumers around the world with very low wages.

Many people have missed the point that, at least since 2014, financial manipulations have not kept prices for fossil fuels high enough for producers. Low prices are driving them out of business. This is the case for oil, coal and natural gas. In fact, low prices caused by giving wind and solar priority on the electric grid are driving producers of nuclear electricity out of business, as well.

Oil producers require a price of $120 a barrel or more to cover all of their costs. Without a much higher price than available today (even with oil prices over $80 per barrel), shale oil production can be expected to fall. In fact, OPEC and its affiliates won’t ramp up production by very large amounts either because they, too, need much higher prices to cover all their costs.

[5] Economists and analysts of many types put together models that give misleading results because they missed several important points.

After oil prices fell in late 2014, it became fashionable to believe that vast amounts of fossil fuels are available for extraction, and that our biggest problem in the future would be climate change. Besides low prices, one reason for this concern was the high level of fossil fuel proven reserves reported by many countries around the world.

Figure 5. Ratio of reported proven reserves at December 31, 2020, to reported production in 2020 based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Even fossil fuel companies started to invest in renewables because of the poor returns experienced from fossil fuel investments. It looked to them as if investment in renewables would be more profitable than continued investment in fossil fuel production. Of course, the profits of renewables were largely the result of government subsidies, particularly the subsidy of “going first.” Giving wind and solar first access when they happen to be available tends to lead to very low, and even negative, wholesale prices for other electricity producers. This drives these other producers of electricity out of business, even though they are really needed to correct for the intermittency of renewables.

There were many things that hardly anyone understood:

  • Energy prices in today’s financially manipulated economy bear little relationship to the true cost of production.
  • Fossil fuel producers need to be guaranteed long-term high prices, if there is to be any chance of ramping up production.
  • Intermittent renewables (including wind, solar, and hydroelectric) have little value in a modern economy unless they are backed up with a great deal of fossil fuels and nuclear electricity.
  • Our real problem with fossil fuels is a shortage problem. Price signals are very misleading.
  • The models of economists are mostly wrong. The use of carbon pricing and intermittent renewables will simply disadvantage the countries adopting them.

The reason why geologists and fossil fuel producers give misleading information about the amount of oil, coal and natural gas available to be extracted is because it is not something they can be expected to know. In a sense, the question is, “How much complexity can the economy withstand before it becomes too brittle to handle a temporary shock, such as a pandemic shutdown?” It isn’t the amount of fossil fuels in the ground that matters; it is the follow-on effects of the high level of complexity on the rest of the economy that matters.

[6] At this point, ramping up fossil fuel production would be very difficult because of the long-term low prices for fossil fuels. Unfortunately, the economy cannot get along with only today’s small quantity of renewables.

Figure 6. World energy supply by type, based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Most people don’t realize just how slowly renewables have been ramping up as a share of world energy supplies. For 2020, wind and solar together amounted to only 5% of world energy supplies and hydroelectric amounted to 7% of world energy supplies. The world economy cannot function on 12% (or perhaps 20%, if more items are included) of its current energy supply any more than a person’s body can function on 12% or 20% of its current calorie intake.

Also, the world’s reaction to the pandemic acted, in many ways, like oil rationing. Figure 6 shows that consumption was reduced for oil, coal and natural gas. An even bigger impact was on the prices of these fuels. Prices fell, even though the cost of production was not falling. (See, for example, Figure 2 for the fall in oil prices.)

These lower prices left fossil fuel providers even worse off financially than they were previously. Some providers went out of business. They certainly do not have reserve funds set aside to develop the new fields that they would need to develop, if they were to ramp up production for oil, coal and natural gas now. Because of this, it is virtually impossible to ramp up fossil fuel production now. A lead time of at least several years is needed, besides a clear way of funding the higher production.

[7] Every plant and animal and, in fact, every growing thing, needs to win the battle against intermittency.

As mentioned in the introduction, humans need to eat on a regular basis. Hunter-gatherers solved the problem of intermittency of harvests by moving from area to area, so that their own location would match the location of food availability. Early agriculture and cities became possible when the growing of grain was perfected. Grain was both storable and portable, so it could be used year around. It could also be brought to cities, allowing people to live in a different location from where the crops were stored.

We can think of any number of adaptations in the plant and animal kingdom to intermittency. Some birds migrate. Bears hibernate. Deciduous trees lose their leaves each fall and grow them back again each spring.

Our supply of any of our energy products is in some sense intermittent. Oil wells deplete, so new ones need to be drilled. Biomass burned for fuel grows for a while, before it is cut down (or falls down) and is burned for fuel. Solar energy is available only until a cloud comes in front of the sun. In winter, solar energy is mostly absent.

[8] Any modeling of the cost of energy needs to take into account the full system needed to “bridge the intermittency gap.”

As far as I can see, the only pricing system that generates enough funds is one that takes into account the full system needs, including the need to overcome intermittency and the need for transportation of the energy to the user. In fact, I would argue that even more than this needs to be included. Good roads are generally required if the system is to be kept in good repair. Good schools are needed for would-be workers in the energy system. Any costs associated with pollution should be wrapped into the required price. Thus, the true cost of energy generation really should include a fairly substantial load for taxes for all of the governmental services that the system requires. And, of course, all parts of the system should pay their workers a living wage.

This high level of pricing can only be provided by utility type pricing of fossil fuels and electricity. The use of long-term contracts to purchase fossil fuels, uranium or electricity can also build in most of these costs. The alternative approach, buying fuels using spot contracts or pricing based on time of day electricity supply, looks appealing when costs are low. But such systems don’t build in sufficient funding for replacement of depleted fields or the full cost of a 24/7/365 electrical system.

Modelers didn’t understand that the “low prices now, higher prices later” approaches that were being advocated don’t really work for the long term. As limits are approached, prices tend to spike badly. Modelers had assumed that the economic system could handle such spikes in prices, and that the spikes in prices would quickly lead to new supply or adaptation. In fact, huge spikes in prices are very disruptive to the system. New supply is what is really needed, but providers tend to be too damaged by previous long periods of artificially low prices to provide this supply. The approach looks great in academic papers, but it leads to rolling blackouts and unfilled natural gas reservoirs for winter.

[9] Major changes for the worse seem to be ahead for the world economy.

At this point, it seems as if complexity has gone too far. The pandemic moved the world economy in the direction of contraction but prices of fossil fuels tend to spike as the economy opens up.

Figure 7. Chart by BBC/Bloomberg. Source: BBC

The recent spikes in prices are highly unlikely to produce the natural gas, coal and oil that is required. They are more likely to cause recession. Fossil fuel suppliers need high prices guaranteed for the long term. Even if such guarantees could be provided, it would still take several years to ramp up production to the level needed.

The general trend of the economy is likely to be in the direction of the Seneca Cliff (Figure 1). Everything won’t collapse all at once, but big “chunks” may start breaking away.

The debt system is a very vulnerable part. Debt is, in effect, a promise of goods or services made with energy in the future. If the energy isn’t there, the promised goods and services won’t be available. Governments may try to hide this problem with new debt, but governments can’t solve the underlying problem of missing goods and services.

Pension systems of all kinds are also vulnerable. If fewer goods and services are being made in total, they will need to be divided up differently. Pensioners are likely to get a reduced share, or nothing at all.

Importers of fossil fuels seem likely to be especially affected by price spikes because exporters have the ability to cut back in the quantity available for export, if total supply is inadequate. Europe is one part of the world that is especially dependent on oil, natural gas and coal imports.

Figure 8. Total energy production and consumption of Europe, based on data of BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. The gap between consumption and production is filled by imports of oil, coal, natural gas and biofuels. Within Europe, countries also import electricity from each other.
Figure 9. Europe energy production by fuel based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

The combined production of hydroelectric, wind and solar and biofuels (in Figure 9) amounts to only 19% of Europe’s total energy consumption (shown in Figure 8). There is no possible way that Europe can get along only with renewable energy, at any foreseeable time in the future.

European economists should have told European citizens, “There is no way you can get along using renewables alone for many, many years. Treat the countries that are exporting fossil fuels to you very well. Sign long term contracts with them. If they want to use a new pipeline, raise no objection. Your bargaining power is very low.” Instead, European economists talked about saving the planet from carbon dioxide. It is an interesting idea, but the sad truth is that if Europe takes itself out of the contest for energy imports, it mostly leaves more fossil fuels for exporters to sell to others.

China stands out as well, as the world’s largest consumer of energy, and as the world’s largest importer of oil, coal and natural gas. It is already encountering electricity shortages that are leading to rolling blackouts. In fact, rolling blackouts in China started almost a year ago in late 2020. China is, of course, a major exporter of goods to the rest of the world. If China has major energy problems, the rest of the world will no longer be able to count on China’s exports. Lack of China’s exports, by itself, could be a huge problem for the rest of the world.

I could continue speculating on the changes ahead. The basic problem, as I see it, is that we have reached limits on oil, coal and natural gas extraction, pretty much simultaneously. The limits are really complexity limits. The renewables that we have today aren’t able to save us, regardless of what the models of Mark Jacobson and others might say.

In the next few years, I am afraid that we will find out how collapse actually proceeds in a very interconnected world economy.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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4,474 Responses to Spike in energy prices suggests that sharp changes are ahead

  1. Jarle says:

    Meanwhile in the white house:


  2. nielscolding says:

    Allrady now about 35 absolutely NOT interesting Fast Eddies. Are you linked to your pc, Eddie?

    • eKnock says:

      So now we know. The problem is not resources per capita. The problem is Fast Eddy.
      Once the Covid takes Fast Eddy, we can get back to normal and build back better.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Hahaha…. don’t hold your breathe …..

        Fast Eddy is at 0 risk of dying for Covid… and he’s not getting the Death Jab…

        Fast is also on a very extreme fitness and health regime and doesn’t even cross the street these days — all in the interest of being able to contribute peak comments on OFW…and reducing all risks because he Must be in play to document the CEP’s final stages

        You can try your like with norm dunc… Triple Jabbers are addicted to the poison … maybe we should set up a betting pool on OFW … as we approach Jab 4.

        Recall how Bossche suggested that the time between jabs will continue to reduce as Immune Exhaustion approaches https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=231

        • Trixie says:

          Notice how Fast Eddy refers to himself in the 3rd person?

          • Fast Eddy says:

            And He insists that I capitalize the H in He and Him…. when I pass down his edicts and brilliant thoughts.

            I know this is difficult to accept … but I am not Fast Eddy… I could never in a million years hope to have even 0.6798% of the wisdom and genius of The Great One…

            The best way to explain this is with a video


            Now do you get it?

          • Tim Groves says:

            Trixie, do you have a problem with other people’s personal pronoun use? Or was this just a neutral observation.

            There could be a number of reasons why someone would refer to them-self in the third person. Self aggrandizement, impartiality, modesty, schizophrenia, implied recognition that the persona being referred to in the third person is not the speaker’s true self, attention seeking, playfulness, unfamiliarity with the rules of English as we speak and write her, or the desire to set a new style, create a new idiom, establish a new normal.

            And above all, because He is Fast Eddy!

          • you’ve noticed that too?

            I’ve been pointing it out for a long time.

            gods cannot be singular, because they are all powerful, therefore they are an entity that must be plural.

            I anticipate that soon he will refer to himself as ‘we’.

            btw Trixie—such criticism will cause you to be cast into the outer darkness, beyond the light of His presence, where you will no longer find yourself able to reach out and touch the hem of His (invisibie) raiment.

            Then sack cloth and ashes will be your only solace

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Have you noticed that Fast Eddy refers to norm as norm .. (n)…

            • eddy

              there are several scrabble letter bags—one for wit, one for sex, one for humour, one for science, and a few others.

              there’s also one for junior scrabble

              have you tried that one?

              I make the suggestion, because you seem unable to pull anything worthwhile out of the grown-up scrabble letter bags.

              if you want to be be witty–make it worth my while—–


            • Trixie says:

              it’s the way of the ascete then.

      • Artleads says:

        Fast Eddy is the only person who is presenting the stark reality we face. He is only one person (I believe) and he’s trying to wake everybody the hell up, an extremely daunting task.

        I’m at the complets opposite end of the spectrum. I was born to problem solve (maybe because I was born into an untenable situation. It was eternal problem solving or die.)

        My problem-solving proclivities lead me the conclusion is that the best we can do is to think, feel and live like a homeless person. The number of homeless persons is skyrocketing. My preferred homeless shelter is made with cardboard. But before you can build something from cardboard (for free) you need to take care of the human excrement.

        I’ve spent weeks making a compost toilet that didn’t stink and could bear normal adult weight. Like most “inventors at first,” I got a lot of things wrong. Something I didn’t think would leak did leak, and my studio is now close to uninhabitable. But I have a better idea what NOT to do.

        Getting even one person to think like a homeless person when they can switch on the light and turn off the tap is well nigh impossible too.

        But there’s a kind of gallows humor in knowing that if the frikin ridiculous human race can’t at least try my way, and rather soon, it’ll surely get what Fast Eddy says they’ll get. So take your pick.

        • i read the first paragraph, and accepted it as irony—what else could it be, i thought to my innocent self.

          The rest of the comment was genuinely interesting–

          then i realised it was seriously meant.

          the people eddy is trying to wake up have put themselves into hibernation (using the same method space travellers use) in the hope that when they wake up in 1000 years, they will have completed their journey to Alpha Centauri , and eddyrants will be the stuff of earth-myths and legend

    • Fast Eddy says:

      It amazes me that the MOREONS have not figured out that they can type Fast Eddy into the search then press delete.

      Even a dog could be trained to push a button with it’s paw….

    • The detail you overlook is that I am the one who decides what get posted or not posted. I am not impressed by all of these theatrics.

      The pandemic clearly has hidden an energy crisis. The nature of the illness and how it can easily be cured has been hidden from the population. These things make the pandemic far more interesting than some people might suppose.

      For some reason, men (especially) like to argue and show off. Who is on top of the hierarchy, in some sense. I do not really like this, but it is time consuming to try to stop. I put your comment in sort of this category as well.

  3. Fast Eddy says:


    This is an enormous scam…. it dwarfs the fake moon landings… 911… JFK…. WMD… the lot…

    This obviously is being executed by an extremely powerful group of people who are able to bring on all the necessary players globally to make it happen. All dissent is crushed. All… dissent… is silenced.

    The ONLY way you get everyone on board is if they are convinced that what they are doing is beneficial to 8 billion people. Otherwise there would be opposition — the Chinese… the Russians… the Europeans.. in fact every country would be pushing back… no way they’d accept this destruction of the species… of the global economy … no way.

    And why would the US want to destroy BAU? Why would they be committing insanity? No way they would ever do any of this … without a damn good reason.

    That can be taken as evidence of the CEP. 100% certain.

    It’s coming… https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=231

    • drb says:

      What is really unsettling is that Russia, a sparsely populated country with enormous resources, is pushing really hard for vaccine mandates, using political and media techniques identical to those of the West. Since the elections, we had QR codes required to enter gyms and indoors events, plus public workers, announced to the workers Sept. 28. Today they ramped that up to anybody entering a university (trying to find out if they are targeting also waiters in restaurants). So anyone in the age range 20-25. The pensioners will continue to catch a cold in the bus and sometimes die in winter, as they tend to do more than in summer, but they will not get jabbed since their pensions were not rich enough to go places anyway.

      • Ed says:

        Do people in Russia know about the value of vitamin D to protect and cure? and Ivermectin?

        At least it seems Sputnik V has fewer negative effects like death. If I had to take a vax I would pick Sputnik V but of course our oligarchs protect their pharma companies so it is not available in the US.

        Any data on what percentage of the population is vaxxed?

        Yes, the world wide desperation of governments to vaxx people remains a great mystery.

        • drb says:

          I agree on all counts. I have given away my own vitamin D pills, since here I can not find them in the strength that is needed for a week of preparation to the shot (My pills were 10000 IU a pill). Young and old appear to be equally deficient and not very worried about it, though generally I find russian diet healthy. I could find pills with high content of zinc and vitamin C which I have also gifted to the victims of forced jabs. I am now taking 500 IU/day vitamin pills which is the highest I could find in stores.

          A few things I find worrisome: the way the debate is conducted in the media. You can find Chinese reports of multiple methods, based on cheap drugs, supplements, and herbal medicine, but here it is vaxx, vaxx, vaxx (same as in the West). The incrementalism described in the prior post. The fact that they acted immediately after an election which probably the KPRF won. The open-ended declarations (this vaxx will last 6 months, then we will see). The youth targeting, although other oblasti do target the pensioners. I was planning on getting the Sputnik eventually, to satisfy certain travel requirements of my next job, but now I am uncertain.

          Finally, the moment I saw Kremlin spokesman Peskov call 2/3 of Russians (the unvaxxed) “irresponsibles who kill people” I had an immediate flashback to Hillary and the Deplorables. If it walks like a duck… If you want to understand Russia’s vaxx situation, the two links below are mandatory readings (first is very long but you will get an idea of what the elites did):



          • I had no trouble finding vitamin D pills, but perhaps I looked earlier. My level was up to 57 nm/dl, not using 10,000 IU per day pills. I figure my current level is good.

            • drb says:

              In Russia? I am sure I could find them through mail order companies, but I have been so damn busy and on my walking commute I pass numerous apteki. By now my pills are feeding the jabbed which is a good thing, I am taking the weak ones, I will be back in Japan in a month or so, I will buy more there…

      • Xabier says:

        In the supposed Age of Bio-digital warfare, perhaps the Russian government is trying to show it is on top of the game?

        I cannot believe that Russia would be interested in population reduction so soon after the demographic collapse of the 1990’s.

        • drb says:

          I agree with that too. But, you know, the Italian government is also not interested in hiking real estate taxes right now, it is only passing a law that will make it possible later. I assure you that 5 years from now Italy’s home taxes will be at least twice the current ones and home ownership will drop dramatically. If you have a multi-generational plan, it is no problem to first pass the law, and then use the law many years later. After all, if the Arctic fields do not pan out, we are looking at only 30 years of oil. People here understand all that. They are natural aficionados of Fast Eddy. No one wants to get jabbed but no one wants to become homeless.

        • NomadicBeer says:

          Thanks dub for the info about Russia. Hard to ignore the possibility of conspiracy and yet most knowledgeable commenters do it.
          Dmitry Orlov considers it just preparation for the possibility of germ warfare.
          JM Greer does not allow any mention of conspiracy conspiracy in his otherwise great weekly thread. No, not even questions like “why does it look like a global coordinated conspiracy?”. And yes, I was really looking for an alternative explanation.

          If anybody here has one, I am all ears.

          • drb says:

            I do think some asian countries, and perhaps Iran, are resisting the coordinated conspiracy. Japan effectively protects its unvaxxed and has a long history of independent mid cadres dictating a medical policy very at odds with the West (their longevity and lack of obesity comes from somewhere). I have spent many months there in the last 18, I think they are the best in the developed world.

            China will act decisively when it needs to but otherwise leaves its people fairly alone (medically speaking). The enigma is Russia. My explanation: a structural weakness of multicultural nations. Russia has to act authoritarian when more ethnically cohesive nations can finesse these issues. Russia, rather pathetically, brandishes its 70% efficiency against delta, that no one internally believes as attitudes against the gov’t harden. forced jabs are akin to rape and now they will live with the consequences.

          • Lidia17 says:

            That’s rather interesting about Greer, since don’t his magickal practices have something to do with the capacity to alter consciousness according to will?

            It would be hard to describe the collective Covid psychosis as anything other than a spell cast by malicious practitioners.

            “Look into my eyes… You will own nothing, and you will be happy. You wear the mask. You will take the jab. You will live in the pod and you will eat the bug.”

            • Replenish says:

              The hesitancy by some of these thinkers to attribute the C-19 response to malice still has me scratching my head given the expressed mission statements of the orgs involved, the scripted exercises which seemingly went live in Jan. 2020 and the sheer level of coincidence necessary for this global response to simply be a case of organic stupidity.

              My first thought is that they want to stay relevant and are riding on the coattails of this noble lie to attract as many seekers to their forums and viewpoints as possible. On occasion they concede that a supernatural power or natural phenomenon is at work but that it is subordinate to the primary workings of their own knowledge base and trusted system. If you press too far or provide an alternate explanation then you are equated with the problem or you just need to stay out of the way because the outcome is inevitable.

              They sense that the situation is critical, they have families at stake and are humans with egos so they simply want to protect their herd from fringe science or black magic while providing their vested solution. These contradictions are a natural response to being attacked by an enemy that has the benefit of higher order intelligence (AI) with the clout to silence dissent and end lives and livelihoods.

              There are some of these elements working here but as a whole OFW is special to me because it is open minded and self-regulating with aome excellent sources providing context and the basis for realistic solutions or the lack thereof.

            • Lidia17 says:

              Replenish, seems to me a fair assessment. Greer’s always rejected extremes in favor of a moderating sort of triangulation… just seems to be part and parcel with his temperament.

          • Nomadic> yes that’s the most probable explanation, cue pictures in .ru msm of full hazmat first responders visiting some barren off beat village (beyond low pop), it’s kind of telling (ridiculously) the game already..

      • Fast Eddy says:

        One of the kids we sponsor is graduating high school and has received a scholarship offer from Otago Uni… it covers tuition fees for a local but she is an international student so we’d still have to kick in over 2/3’s of the fees + room and board…

        We need to maintain the pretence that there is a future… so I have contacted the school and informed them that she is not injected and will not be injected — we have to pay fees in advance so what happens if a mandate comes into play…. will we get a refund?

        Of course I reached a CovIDIOT who gently tried to promote the poison informing me that if she is not injected she can spread covid ‘to you and me’…. I informed the covidiot that she was not correct and the CDC has even said the injection does not stop the spread and then referenced Israel and Singapore….

        My Tourette’s wanted me to unleash … but I refrained from calling her a MOREON… and a CovIDIOT…. as she continued to try to ply me with her nonsense and instead said let’s stop here — she’s not getting it – even if she’s offered a free hamburger and dance music … period. All I want to know is what the school’s refund policy is.

        I’ve been passed to another department — and here is where we stand.

        Hello again,

        Yes I can see that this is a significant issue, so thank you for raising this. We are likely to get more similar enquiries. I will get back to you as soon as I can.

        There is also the possibility that there will be further lockdowns going forward and you pay all this cash (not that the cash matters given it’s about to go to 0)– for remote study… when there is Open University that is already online with fees a fraction of Otago U.

        Managing the situation and maintaining hope as we circle the drain … is not easy….

        The Elders and their teams are experiencing similar as they run 8B of us over the cliff….

      • I suppose that without the whole world economy, including the semiconductors imported from elsewhere, Russia couldn’t really do very much.

        I notice an article on the WSJ that says

        Russia Orders People Not to Go to Work as Covid-19 Deaths Mount
        Putin issued order as cases have climbed; neighboring Latvia launched a curfew after the seven-day average of deaths more than doubled

        Looking around the world, I see that Russia’s reported case rate is not very high (probably not testing much), but that its death rate is quite high (0.666 per 100,000) This is higher than the US total currently 0.508 per 100,000. Russia’s deaths have been quite high for a long time, which is perhaps part of the concern.

        I notice in looking at death rates around the world, the highest ones are in Eastern Europe.

        Romania 2.96 per 100,000 deaths
        Bulgaria 1.77
        Moldova 1.34
        Armenia 1.24
        Lithuania 1.18
        Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.948
        Georgia (EU) 0.921
        North Macedonia 0.846
        Ukraine 0.831
        Serbia 0.765
        Latvia 0.757
        Russia 0.666

        With neighbors doing so poorly and deaths high for so long, I imagine that Russia is “at its wits end.”

        Russia’s cumulative deaths to date are actually much lower than this oe the US or the UK or the countries of Eastern Europe.

    • There are several ways of seeing the problem. I am not sure that this is the best way for all age groups.

      I think the issue is more that distributing these leaky vaccines is like handing out half-bottles of antibiotic in the midst of a bacterial epidemic that can be killed off with full bottles of the antibiotics. The half bottles kill off the weak version of the viruses, only, leaving the stronger ones to reproduce and multiply. In a short time, we end up with ever-stronger variants.

      If we had simply lessened the effects of the virus with the many available inexpensive drugs we have, and allowed people to develop their own antibodies, the virus would tend to weaken over time, just as the virus for the Spanish Flu (1918-1919) did.

      The mRNA vaccines are inviting the virus to stay around longer, with more variants, and to get worse over time.

  4. Rodster says:

    “Of Two Minds – Software Ate the World and Now Has Indigestion”


    • Charles Hugh Smith says:

      “So when the grid goes down for lack of real-world energy, let’s all cheer how software is going to deliver us endless abundance. But we’ll have to do all the cheerleading in person because the Web went down, too. ”


  5. Jay says:

    Thanks for the great analysis. This is an article that everybody should read.

    • Tim Groves says:

      This is a 1 hour 38 minute interview in which Dr. Mark Tozzi talks about his experiences during the “pandemic” and about why he resigned from his job as an ER physician after 25 years for moral reasons.

      According to Dr. Trozzi, “The ‘first wave’ of the ‘pandemic’ was absolutely the quietest time in my career, both in my regular ER and my ‘COVID-19 designated’ ER, there were almost no patients, and almost no work. I had multiple long ER shifts without a single patient.
      I perceive that at every level, hospital administration has had no apparent choice, other than to submit to the endless top-down roll out from governments, of questionable new rules, protocols, and procedures. My honest conversations with coworkers about my research and observations, became a problem. Caught in this quandary, an important administrator who I greatly respect, told me that ‘my thoughts made others uncomfortable, and made it difficult to keep everyone motivated and compliant’ with all the new protocols and restrictions. Sympathetic to the sad situation, I maintained my clinical position by promising to ‘bite my tongue any time I thought I was going to speak about COVID-19’ in the hospital. This was ultimately ethically impossible for me, and by mid-November I began winding down my ER work, and resigned from all my ER’s by mid-February, to avoid conflicts between my social, legal, and ethical responsibilities; and the hospitals which I am fond of.”

  6. Fast Eddy says:

    Sanctioned https://www.thesudburystar.com/news/local-news/two-ontario-doctors-barred-from-issuing-covid-medical-exemptions/wcm/bf8757fc-97c3-4c96-8a4a-2bde360673fa

    My name is Mark Trozzi. I am a medical doctor; I graduated in 1990 from The University of Western Ontario. I have been practicing Emergency Medicine for the past twenty-five years, and am a veteran critical resuscitation instructor. I was on call in multiple emergency units since the onset of the so-called “pandemic”, until February 2021, including one ER designated specifically for COVID-19.

    What follows is my observations and opinions; I am bound by my personal and religious convictions to speak openly and honestly. I do not have authority to tell you “the truth”, but I will share my honest experiences, perceptions, and digests of hundreds of hours of research on the subject of covid-19.

    At the onset of this “pandemic”, I was cautious, and hence meticulous, with N95 mask use, hand washing, social isolation and distancing etc. I studied coronavirus science and was deeply involved in many emergency department drills to modify our practice in profound ways to deal with the “killer virus” we were advertised. However, various things soon made me consider that we were being deceived and manipulated. Here are a few


  7. Tim Groves says:

    Q: Do you know why there are vaccine mandates?

    A: Because no sane person would take it without coercion.

    The link below takes you to a handsome, fact-filled, bone-chilling and truly shocking 174-slide presentation in PDF.

    A summary of the data presented is that:
    The vaccines kill more people than they save.
    Early treatment can get us to zero COVID. Pay attention to Uttar Pradesh vs. Kerala. We (the USA) are following Kerala.
    There are much more effective proven early treatments than they used in Uttar Pradesh, but nobody is paying any attention. The CDC will never call George Fareed or Brian Tyson (who developed successful a life-saving early treatment protocol).
    The one thing every hospitalized COVID patient has in common: they didn’t use a proven early treatment protocol.
    This won’t change because nobody in America likes to admit they were wrong.


    • Fast Eddy says:

      That is The Mother Load…. nice find

      • take another dip in the scrabble bag eddy

        the word you want is Lode–not Load

        it”s ‘Mother Lode’

        I was led the believe that gods knew everything. No wonder chalk and skoolyard wall
        is your most rewarding medium of communication.

        (eye rolling time again)

        • Fast Eddy says:

          No.. if I say it’s Load … it’s Load.

          Mother Load.

          Because I make the rules.

        • Tim Groves says:

          Norman, the word you are trying to write is “Scrabble”, not “scrabble”. Your capitalization is iffy, while your punctuation also leaves a lot to be desired. Missing capitalization at the start of sentences, missing periods at the ends, inappropriate use of the carriage return following “skoolyard wall”, a double apostrophe in “it”s”, missing comma after “bag”, missing hyphen between “eye” and “rolling”, misuse of an “n” dash instead off an “m” dash after “Lode”…..

          I’m giving you a C for effort (creative employment of “skoolyard” for purposes of sarcasm deserves recognition, but an F for achievement overall.

          • Malcopian says:

            Very harsh, Tim. Normal did after all win the 1948 Beano & Dandy Award for Lifting Deadweights. He was thrilled with his prize of a five shilling postal order.

            He is also a very obedient boy. He thinks the PTB are thoroughly decent chaps and chappesses and he has never believed in a single co n.- s pira. / cy.

            His talent for lifting deadweights means he will be in great demand as a slave after the Collapse. Long live the Normal!

            • i freely confess to being a lazy one finger typist

              if that’s all you’ve got to hang your critical hat on—best of luck.
              I’m hardly seeking to impress the Nobel committee deciding on the recipient of their prize for literature.

              Am I?

              but i know the difference between lode and load.

              I would not dream of pointing it out, but for the need to preserve the infallible status of he who uttered it.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              What does your dolly call it norm … load or lode?


            • i suppose your witless existence can justify that eddy.

              Illiteracy cannot be cured. (verbal or mental)

              As with so many of your comments in the past, i can only hope Gail deals with it.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              That was a good one wasn’t it! Glad you worked it out

            • Fast Eddy says:

              This is what one does when one is incapable of holding one’s own in any sort of serious discussion or debate… one points to an undotted i and screams ‘you are wrong!!!’

              Enjoy the victory norm…

              Meanwhile — let’s post this question again — healthy children (and people) are at near 0 risk of severe illness from covid — and the CDC confirms that being injected does not stop you from spreading covid (to your half dead granny)…

              So why are children being forced into the injections? I see that 5-11 yr olds will soon be eligible.

              Don’t worry about the fact that yr should be spelled year norm… answer that question.

            • i ‘suggest’ that people are wrong, and offer reasons why i think so. I don’t think I’ve used dogma, it certainly wasn’t intended if I did.

              Whether people accept or reject it is a matter of indifference. Information is offered. Might turn out to be wrong, or right. Moonscams carry no doubts I’m afraid. I do not engage in serious discussions about ongoing nonsenses, or scream ‘you are wrong’. Not my way ate all

              Childish attempts to capitalise on spelling errors isn’t worthy of response. yr instead of year? is that the best you can come up with?

              Try spelling stupid with one ‘u’ instead of two dozen ‘o’s. It might increase your credibility, (with me anyway)

            • Fast Eddy says:

              thanks for the reminder


            • you know my rule

              never open clickbait eddytubes


            • Tim Groves says:

              The Nobel Prize Committee?

              Norman, if Bob Dylan can win one for Literature, there’s no reason why you can’t get a Pulitzer.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              norm is a renowned p0rn start in the blow up dolly world… google Lothario p0rn and you’ll find him

              Better than a pulitzer

            • Me—in the same breath as Bob Dylan? wow!—thanks.

              I dabble in poetry–not bad by some accounts. Occasionally–very occasionally, I’ve apparently hit the tears button. (make of that what you will, but hide the chalk from eddy) The aspiration of every poet.

              I’m not over-endowed with modesty, but i wouldn’t dream of putting myself anywhere near Dylan’s level,–but thanks again anyway.

              i enjoy watching the shortcomings of others exposed, without me having to do it. Belittling Dylan’s skill is so revealing of yourself.

            • Tim Groves says:

              Your imagination and your malicious streak are getting the better of you again, Norman. To suggest that Bob Dylan was unworthy of a Nobel is hardly to belittle the artist. His line of art doesn’t fall inside the usual guidelines for awarding that prize. He has ten Grammy Awards, which should be more than enough recognition for any rocker.

              If I was to join Joni Mitchell in calling Bob out as a plagiarist or with Germaine Greer in sneering at him, “That creep couldn’t even write doggerel”, then I would be belittling him.

              And imagine the deserving Nigerian or Ecuadorian writer who was deprived of worldwide fame and fortune because they gave the Nobel to Dylan instead, although in the past they overlooked Tolstoy, Nabokov and Greene, and purposefully didn’t give it to Salman Rushdie or Arthur Miller on the grounds that they would have been “too predictable, too popular.”

              I am also not belittling Gary Glitter or Johnny Rotten by suggesting that they should both be removed from consideration as future Nobel laureates, despite how incredibly catchy and memorable “Do you wanna touch” and “She ain’t no human being” remain to this day.

    • postkey says:

      P6: https://21a86421-c3e0-461b-83c2-cfe4628dfadc.filesusr.com/ugd/659775_409b4bb7107f4320be075ce1404b048d.pdf

      “Conclusion: The answer to the question is, Yes. The treatment of SARS-CoV-2, like
      HIV, requires a multi-drug treatment regimen focusing on the immune ITR to SARS#CoV-2. The three successful treatment regimens include
      1. Tocilizumab & Interferon a-2b
      2. Primaquine, Clindamycin, Tocilizumab & Interferon a-2b, and
      3. Methylprednisolone. These three regimens were effective 99.83 % of the time
      and shortened hospital stays from 40 ± 3 days to 1-2 weeks”

      • These are mostly expensive drugs, I believe. The names are strange enough.

        There are cheaper drugs that work too.

        “shortened hospital stays from 40 ± 3 days to 1-2 weeks”
        Forty days is an amazingly long hospital stay. Perhaps these are people who ended up in the ICU after hospitalization.

  8. Jarle says:

    It’s a strange experience looking at the world from up here in the land of much money to spend per capita. Few if any people around me have any idea of the fragile nature or the modern world, their worries couldn’t get more unsignificant if you forced them. Ignorance is bliss the saying goes but only for so long, the table is set for a harsh awakening …

    • Jarle says:

      With our standards of living the fall is going to be long and the landing hard …

      • Xabier says:

        It would help to cushion the shock to do some slightly harder living now – get a little cold and hungry, experience the dark and wet more – and this is my strategy.

        It helps though, that I am already rather broke……..

        • Jarle says:

          I used to adore hi tech and when at uni I studied computer science. Years have past and for some time now low tech has taken precedence. That and acquiring skills to help myself as much as possible. Won’t save me if the shit hits the propeller but I feel better and as a bonus I need a lot less money.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Finally – someone is doing a dry run with the Fast Eddy Challenge!

          It does make sense… how else do you hone your plan without testing it.

          Most are too fearful to try this …

    • Seideman says:

      Jarle I hear ya, another norwegian here. The ignorance and unawareness of things going on is just astounding.

      • Ed says:

        Despair not for Norwegians relative understanding of the situation here in the US people are just as blind to the state of the world. Be happy you have a good level of hydro which hopefully will power some level of farming and fishing and hence food for Norwegians.

        Gail, there is a whole subject area we have not covered the nation by nation actions being taken to actually deal with the end of more. Also, the likelihood that the chosen approach will work. By work, I do not mean BAU rather an austere society with food and not much else.

  9. Mike Roberts says:

    Good, to the point, talk by Professor William Rees about overshoot. Though CC is mentioned, that’s not really the central point, which is our conversion of the planet into stuff. This can’t go on much longer. A couple of years old but still relevant.


  10. Fast Eddy says:

    Why it’s best to keep quiet as your freedoms are taken away


  11. You write that under Reagan and Thatcher a less stable economic system had begun.

    Actually, Thatcher wanted to abolish economists as shown in this “Yes, Minister” sketch

  12. Lastcall says:

    It would seem to me that V. Putin had a lot to do with the Con-vid scam.
    The Ukranian takeover stalled.
    The Syrian takeover stalled.
    The Crimean was returned.
    Russia crushed the use of cruise missiles in Middle-east.
    Russia enabled Edrogan to survive a palace coup.
    Russia has hypersonic missile advantage
    Russia showed how a clever game can enable a nation woth a very small GDP to derail the “Hyper-Power US”.

    So wars of conquest to gain oil etc; no more (see Afghan debacle)
    Use of IMF, WEF, OPEC, CIA, etc etc to bend more resources to the west; no more
    Use of Reserve currency to control nations; crumbling
    Print and it shall materialise; not working
    Fear via war on terror; failed, despite Colin Powell anthrax sample from Langley (not resting in Peace methinks)
    Paint Russia as bad bad; failed. Chemical weapons, biological agents (Skripal hoax).
    Fear of Climax alterations; failed, sorry Gree Taa

    So can’t up supply; now go for demand destruction.
    Have event 201, realise time is short as financial system in death throes, so launch on the back of a Chinese over-reaction to bad laboratory management. Pump up numbers with wide ranging DNR orders….and here we are off to the races with demand wobbling around like a hypothermic drunk!

  13. Fast Eddy says:

    I wonder if all the violence could have been averted and the monarchy overthrown if the Bolshis had just banged drums and shouted?


    • Jarle says:

      I bet a Norwegian Krone that revolutions didn’t start full throttle.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Keep in mind … the vast majority of people in every single country are CovIDIOTS… and those CovIDIOTS would gladly bash in the heads of the protestors

        Check the Injection rates.. we are at 90% in QT…. and I don’t doubt that… I know of only a handful of people who reject the poison…

        There will not be a revolution to televise

  14. Fast Eddy says:

    Just reviewing the roll out of the injections in NZ and front liners were poisoned in February…

    The person we know is a senior so would have been next in line … serious heart problems started in March….

    Does one warn them off the booster?

    I think not … they will not listen anyway.

    March – April – May – June – July – August – September – October… based on Israel’s roll out — she likely only has a couple of months till the death shot.


    • Yorchichan says:

      Guy I gave a lift to Sunday night was devastated by the sudden death of his wife aged 38 this summer. She went to bed saying she felt unwell and never woke up. Doctors were “baffled” because she had no underlying health conditions. They put it down to “Sudden Death Syndrome” i.e. they had no idea why she died.

      I didn’t ask the obvious question. No point in upsetting him more. Her age and the timing of the rollout means it’s far more likely than not.

      • Jarle says:

        Damn, I would have lost my mind and done something “unpleasant” to “someone” …

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Pfizer Heart.

          Shit happens… (quite a bit)

          Does anyone know of anyone who has has a serious vaccine injury prior to the covid poison?

          Odds are about the same as knowing someone who has won a million dollars in a lottery

        • Yorchichan says:

          I doubt he has even considered her death might be vaccine induced. Most people trust doctors and the MSM unquestioningly and do not even believe that serious harm from taking a covid vaccine is a remote possibility, let alone know the truth that the vaccines are killing and maiming millions.

        • Lidia17 says:

          Possibly not, because if you’d been able to prevent it and didn’t, you’d be complicit.

          Look at all the moms with dead and disabled children now who won’t admit the obvious: that they failed to protect their child. Some do, but most don’t seem to be able to “go there”.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            I suspect the mothers who have maimed their children by having them injected are in very deep denial… just as most adults who have been maimed by the injections refuse to acknowledge their utter stoooopidity…

            It’s one thing to wreck your own body — but your child!!! Hahahahaha… to acknowledge that crime against humanity = possible suicide.

            Of course any mother who has committed this sin … should slit her wrists… guilty as charged … of …. filicide…

    • Lidia17 says:

      A friend is now having to care for her handyman, who’s come down (up?) with endocarditis, which I read is a “rare” disease. I asked her if the guy had been vaxxed and she assured me the doctors said it wasn’t from the vax. The doctors don’t know what did cause it—the cause is “mysterious”—but it wasn’t the vax. In the hospital for a few weeks and now is on IV abx that she has to flush out and change. Oh well.

      This vaccine seems to be the main cause of coincidences, I’ve heard say.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I am trying to understand what is happening with doctors who are not making that connection … a healthy person gets injected then shortly after experiences severe heart problems… and ‘it’s not the vax’…

        It makes on think that we are living in a virtual reality and the system operators have altered the software on doctors…

      • Tim Groves says:

        With all these unhappy “coincidences”, another valid reason for not taking a Covid jab could be that, according to the statistics and the science, they are “unlucky.”

        Incidentally, a personal anecdote. Two old ladies both aged 96 from my tiny village of less than forty people were both placed in care homes over fifteen years ago and have both been demented, bed-ridden and mostly comatose for over ten years. Homes like this type of patient as they don’t make trouble for the staff. Physical care is routine and can be planned and prepared for in advance with little risk of surprise.

        Anyway, vaccinations at Japanese care homes began in April and were completed in June and these ladies were jabbed as was everyone else in the facility. One of these old ladies died in September and the other one died in October. Official cause of death—old age in both cases. There’s no point in autopsying or investigating why they died. And there’s no point blaming the vaccines as “they were old and they would have died anyway” as in the case of Prince Philip, and also because they were already regarded as “as good as dead” by their families, who are now experiencing the joy of closure—the relief at not having to wait for the end any longer.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Such a pity they are dead… when I read the first bit of your post I was thinking that you might introduce the girls to norm and dunc….

  15. Fast Eddy says:

    New Zealand reports record Covid cases as experts sound warning over health system


    hahahaha… it’s all going according to plan! Now that ‘Super Saturday’ is over.. and we are 90% injected… let’s open up so we can get those injected covidiots mixing it up!

  16. Sam says:

    Gail I know that you are not big into prognostications but shouldn’t we expect to see a run up on oil prices say $150 at least in the short run? This is followed by a deflationary crash heard around the world.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      my 2 cents: yes on the supply side the peak has likely been reached pre covid pre 2020, and we’re talking about the specific diminishing returns of one item: oil.

      I agree with the outlook that it is highly unlikely that there will be any change to the present situation where investments in exploration and its results are falling.

      diminishing returns will continue, and the bigger question is only at what rate: slow and somewhat steady, or accelerating.

      on the other side of the coin, there are considerable worldwide issues that are putting pressure on the affordability, the so-called demand, of oil products.

      given this downward pressure, it’s a stretch to think that the slowly falling supply will be enough to spike prices way over $100.

      oil has roughly doubled in the past 12 months, but that’s history, and falling prices are almost certain at some point in the near future.

      given that EU and others are being hammered by spiking natural gas prices, I think that’s the one spike for now, and that may well result in your speculated “deflationary crash”.

      but who knows? yeah, nobody.

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        US natural gas briefly spiked over $6 and is now down to $4.93

        there are some persons who think that the world has once again fallen back into recession, and that sounds reasonable to me.

        if true, oil prices will soon be falling.

    • postkey says:

      Probably not?

      “ . . . just opec alone
      28:12 is sitting on something like 7 million
      28:14 barrels a day of spare capacity that’s
      28:16 eia’s estimate some people will argue
      28:19 with that some people say they don’t
      28:21 know what they’re talking about i don’t
      28:22 really care it’s a lot of oil you know
      28:24 is it 5 million is it 7 million is it 9
      28:27 million it doesn’t matter
      28:28 opec plus has more because they include
      28:31 russia
      28:32 those guys could solve this problem
      28:34 tomorrow
      28:36 maybe if they wanted to but they don’t
      28:38 want to . . . “

  17. JMS says:

    Thanks, Gail, excellent summary about how and why homo sapiens has found itself in the present cliff, and about what the Knowing Authorities have been doing, since the 1970s, to try to postpone the inevitable Big Downturn.

    You could have added the ways in which those same Authorities have sought to “prepare” (in every sense of the word) the masses for that downturn (globalwarming & now covid). But that would be a gigantic post. And I understand you don’t feel too comfortable talking about politics. In fact field of politics and especially high politics is too nebulous and swampy to provide an analyst with many factual truths. And of course you as a responsible and honest actuary have not been trained to make assessments based on something that can be deemed (rightly or wrongly, it doesn’t matter) mere conjecture! I think you are right in that attitude of mental reservation, it’s the most sensible position.

    Unfortunately I and a few others on your forum are far less restrained than you and happily and confidently embark on the boldest “speculations”! 🙂
    Gail honestly you’re a gem, a pearl and one of a kind. Gods bless you.

    • JMS says:

      I disagree though when you say: “Lower-paid workers may not eat well, so that pandemics spread more easily.” Poor diet contributes greatly to increasing illness, but it does not infect anyone, and therefore cannot become pandemic.

      If countless FOI requests have not received any affirmative answers regarding the isolation and purification of “sarscov-2”, as demonstrated in the link below, we can only conclude that the covid pandemic concept is pure fiction, and should be recognized as such once and for all.


      • Yorchichan says:

        I disagree though when you say: “Lower-paid workers may not eat well, so that pandemics spread more easily.” Poor diet contributes greatly to increasing illness, but it does not infect anyone, and therefore cannot become pandemic.

        As you yourself write, poor diet makes people more vulnerable to getting sick. This increased vulnerability in the population means a disease is able to infect more people, i.e. the pandemic can spread more easily.

        • JMS says:

          Dietary deficiencies can cause disease outbreaks in a population, but we can’t call those diseases epidemics, since the definition of epidemic implies contagion, and for there to be contagion there has to be an infectious agent. And if electron microscopes don’t detect the infectious agent (aka virus) ….

          • Yorchichan says:

            Unhealthy diet leads to more people infected by and spreading a contagious disease, thereby worsening a pandemic/epidemic.

            If your English were not so perfect, I would think our disagreement was a misunderstanding of language.

            • JMS says:

              Yorchican, I am just drawing the logical consequence of the non-existence of purified and isolated samples of the supposed Sars.cov.2 virus (or any other), as demonstrated by the negative responses of dozens of institutions to FOI submissions.

              The definition of “epidemic” presupposes the existence of contagion. But without the identification of the causative agent of the disease, how can we talk about contagion?

              A compromised immune system is especially vulnerable to infections, but these infections are not caused by viruses, that’s all I’m saying.

          • Tim Groves says:

            Actually, by definition, AN EPIDEMIC is a disease that affects a large number of people within a community, population, or region. A PANDEMIC is an epidemic that’s spread over multiple countries or continents.

            Within this definition, there is no need for contagion. Take the case of obesity. On a google search “epidemic of obesity” brings up well over a million hits.

            The first one, from Science Direct, says: “Obesity has reached epidemic proportions globally and has nearly tripled worldwide between 1975 and 2016. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2016, more than 1.9 billion adults aged 18 years and older were overweight, and of those, over 650 million adults were obese.”

            We are living through a pandemic of Covid-19, or so we’re told, and many people including Yorchichan, by younger brother, and several of my close friends, have experienced the unmistakeable symptoms of this disease personally, so the disease definitely exists. But what causes this disease and produces the symptoms and damage associated with it is another question. How can we be confident that we’ve been told the broad truth about the infectious agent?

            You both make valid points. You may both be correct, or partially correct. Let’s keep investigating and questioning, if for no other reason than that it drives Norman mad.

            • JMS says:

              I was not referring to the broad sense of “epidemic”, but to its medical, stricter sense:

              adj. .
              1. spreading rapidly and extensively by infection [allegedly caused by viruses] and affecting many individuals in an area or population at the same time.
              1. (of a disease) affecting many individuals at the same time, and spreading from person to person in a locality where the disease is not permanently prevalent.
              1. An outbreak of a CONTAGIOUS disease that spreads rapidly and widely.

              For me it is very simple: whoever claims that disease A is caused by virus Z has to prove it beyond a reasonable doubt. If they can’t do that, I feel entitled to call their claim a scientific fraud.
              I’m not so sure as you that a new disease exists. Up to this point at least, I have no reason to believe that covid is anything more than a relabeling of well-known symptomatology such as those of influenza, tuberculosis, pneumonia, etc., etc.

            • Tim Groves says:

              I’m sure that a set of symptoms exists that includes loss of taste or smell, fever, breathing difficulties, inability of the lungs to function properly, inflammation of the lining of the lungs and clumping together of platelets into blood clots. This has been reported to me by several sufferers personally and I have no reason to suspect them of deliberately lying.

              What the cause of these symptoms is I have no idea. The “official” explanation that the symptoms are being caused by a virus is unproven. It seems to be be an assumption based on germ theory rather than a checkable hypothesis. However, not being a virologist, I am in a similar position to someone who is not a structural engineer daring to have an opinion on why the towers fell, or somebody who is not a theologian debating the number of angels that can dance on the end of a pin. I think my stance and yours on this are not very far apart.

            • Tim Groves says:

              Up to this point at least, I have no reason to believe that covid is anything more than a relabeling of well-known symptomatology such as those of influenza, tuberculosis, pneumonia, etc.

              This seems a reasonable view in my opinion. But I really don’t know enough about flu or TB to be able to say with certainty whether there is anything about Covid-19 symptoms or their combination that is unique.

              Ed told us in the spring of 2020 that Covid-19 is “just the flu” and I’ve always accepted this is a possibility. Once you strip the hype away, what does Covid-19 amount to?

              My own GP told me last year that he would treat Covid-19 patients just the same as flu patients. He also said the pandemic (and the vaccines) would go on for about three years, and from the way he said it I am assuming he got a memo of some sort about that.

      • drb says:

        This is entirely incorrect. There are waves of viri coming through at all times.What makes a pandemic is a population with compromised immune systems. Healthy people will not be affected. The most notable root cause is excess consumption of carbohydrates, which have been shown to interfere with virtually every level of the IS, either directly or through the hormones they trigger.

  18. Fast Eddy says:

    Ok.. enough discussion of energy ….

    We burned up all the cheap stuff so let’s get back to discussing what the Elders are planning to do next…

    How the Covid Boosters will Result in a Catastrophic Outcome


    Bossche is The Man. no?

  19. rob222 says:

    Gail, what if the nation implemented some sort of Manhattan project on possible solutions to the energy dilemma such as thorium energy. If thorium could be proven and rapidly Implemented would that change our prospects?

    • Bei Dawei says:

      How long is this likely to take? Not only to solve the science and engineering problems, but also to convert everything to use thorium?

      • Tim Groves says:

        The science and engineering problems involved in using thorium fission as a power source, such as they are, have doubtless already been solved. But the technology has not been implemented for political reasons, IMHO.

        No need to convert everything. The thorium fission will heat water to spin turbines to generate electricity. It will be exactly the same kind of electricity that is produced using uranium or coal or windmills or hydropower or solar sells—the kind with electrons running about in it.

      • DJ says:

        And if one power plant takes 10 years to build, you have to wait 10 and a few years, maybe filfteen total, to get back the investment of energy.

        We already have an energy crisis and cant really invest much energy in building out more energy producing devices.

    • Tim Groves says:

      Rob, I think if the objective was to save BAU, thorium power would have been commercialized and brought into service decades ago. I think the probable plan is to thin the herd rapidly by means of an artificially induced crisis, and then, when the population is reduced by 80 or 90 percent, bring in thorium and/or other wonderful energy-producing technologies and “save” the survivors.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        And Fast Eddy will be King of the brave new world!!!

        If norm mike dunc survive the wave of boosters… they can be jesters

      • drb says:

        Decades is too strong a word. The Russians are working on burning unenriched uranium, or even depleted, of which they have a whole lot, and that basically amounts to running a battery of breeders, produce plutonium, and mix the P with the U in MOX pellets, then burn it. They are probably the most advanced. Of course, this does not make tractors possible after we run out of oil.

        Other than good mastery of breeding technology, and also of pellet manufacturing in the present of such radioactive fuel, this is what everyone is trying to do and not particularly insurmountable. With thorium it is the exact same, except that the fissile isotope is 233 U. So you breed U to burn Th. Breeders have been made to work, but there are sure serious issues in scaling up.

        • Yep, their Breeder program has been completed few years ago, it consists of spent fuel reprocessing facilities and the new reactors. It’s not merely research grade, but more of a pilot (~full) industrial scale..

          Have been writing here about it for years, but no interest, OFWs either don’t get it or thinking I’m pulling their leg.

          Nevertheless, the KEY question remains, why has not been this unique advantage mass produced / adopted more widely inside .ru .. or licensed elsewhere ?

          I gather, they need / rely so much on developing hydrocarbons for exports, it makes more sense (at the moment) to run two parallel tracks, conventional (well Siberian and ~arctic) natgas / oil industries for both domestic and export purposes.. i.e. the priority is not there.

          Perhaps there is some other bottle neck like enough expertly people and or other pressing priorities, like pumping up defense industries (R&D).. Actually, it’s very likely the latter, as the official narrative is: “now we are well protected for several next decades..”

    • CTG says:

      Rob, we have discussed this before years ago. The issue is debt. any new energy source need to come out at precisely the time when energy is going downhill, that is 1970s. However, we substituted energy with debt.

      There is no need to talk about nuclear fusion, or Manhattan Project for energy. Let us assume that there is plenty of oil suddenly Saudi Arabia found that by just sticking a straw to the ground, oil will gushed out and that was a hidden corner of the country that no one knew.

      Do you think it will help? do you think it will help now? Take it as an academic exercise. Will the price of oil go down dramatically overnight and then what? will people drive more? Will there be work? Will be there less inflation? Will the drop in price kill all other oil producers? What happens to the financial world who are hedging oil? How long does it take to pipe that oil out?

      It is not just as simple as “if you have found an energy source” and all will be fine and dandy. If your thorium or any unicorn energy source came out in 1970s and it is not substituted by debt, then life will carry on. Now, it is not possible anymore. Debt has complicated matters and it will implode the whole system.

      • Tim Groves says:

        This is true. Debt will eventually implode the whole system.

        Unless an awful lot of end-creditors were to drop dead. Then the debtors wouldn’t have to pay them. For example, if these creditors were mostly retired people on pensions, then pension fund managers could breathe a huge collective a sigh of relief.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          BAU is for all intents and purposes — dead. It’s in a deep coma hooked up to life support machinery … so there is still a pulse… but make no mistake — there is no emerging from this brain dead state…

          We are just waiting for the Elders to cut the power off.


          “The global economy was facing the worst collapse since the second world war as coronavirus began to strike in March, well before the height of the crisis, according to the latest Brookings-FT tracking index. “The index comes as the IMF prepares to hold virtual spring meetings this week, when it will release forecasts showing the deepest contraction for the global economy since the 1930s great depression. https://www.ft.com/content/9ac5eb8e-4167-4a54-9b39-dab48c29ac6c

          Collapse Imminent: https://thephilosophicalsalon.com/a-self-fulfilling-prophecy-systemic-collapse-and-pandemic-simulation/

          The Illusion of Stability, the Inevitability of Collapse http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2021/09/the-illusion-of-stability-inevitability.html

          • Tim Groves says:

            Yes, of course. The comatose patient on life support is a good analogy for the current economic situation. And the Covid caper could be the Elders’ way of pulling the plug.

            In this analogy, individual people are like the cells in an organism. They are completely dependent on the organism continuing to function for their own means of survival. And if the organism dies, their own deaths will follow on short order unless they are lucky enough to be used for transplant surgery or to start a cell line for developing new vaccines.

            But with people, hope springs eternal. Most will refuse to consider that BAU could fall apart just like that. And even those who accept the possibility will cling to the thought that they can do something to prevent harm from befalling them personally. This is delusional thinking, because individuals are no more independent of society than cells are independent of their host organisms. But most people need delusions or illusions to prevent them from going gaga.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I recall a conversation with someone years ago about collapse… he insisted that ‘they’ would never allow this to happen….

              Not sure who ‘they’ would be … politicians I assume…. I doubt he was aware of the Elders…

              But to a certain extent he was right …’they’ would move heaven and earth to try to prevent collapse…

              And they have… look at what they have done over the past two decades to try to prevent collapse.

              They even printed oil (shale…) … that’s right up there with miracles of five loaves and two fish!

              Alas … even they have limitations… and they know it ….


  20. CTG says:

    Let me add a comment to what Gail has written. I will definitely attribute this to human stupidity and arrogance

    There was a commenter many years ago from Sweden which I forgot his name. Very nice guy but where is he now? I don’t see him here for years. Anyway, he has a big garden with squash and he did mention that if collapse come, he has plenty of squash. I asked him – “Are you planning to east squash every day forever?” Can we, as humans do that? Not likely. We must have a varied diet.

    Wind power, solar and hydroelectric does not produce oil. Even if EV is the main stay, These power sources do not produce plastics or lubricants. They are from natural gas or crude oil.

    It is either (1) The “smart ones” failed to realize that, thus making them “not smart” (2) on purpose (3) Think that future tech will help (tech will save us mentality) that but the future is here, now but without the tech. (2) political purpose only but basing on the stupidity of the voters who voted them in (which is influenced by the green movement

    As you can see, the energy crisis is similar to the squash issue. We are all banking on one thing. We put all eggs into one basket and thinking that we can survive on one type of “whatever” that some some people think up.

    If you disregard CEP, then the scamdemic is similar to the squash thin. Try to implement NWO and a lot of other consequences not related to their sole objective of using the contents of the jab to control people will come to light. Chaos theory at its best + human arrogance and stupidity = total destruction.

    • Dana says:

      CTG -When the earliest European settlers arrived in America, they learned to cultivate corn and squash from the Native Americans. I have an old cookbook that has a little rhyme accompanying a pie recipe that goes – “Pumpkins for breakfast, and pumpkins at noon, if it weren’t for pumpkins we would be undoon.”

  21. Jimothy says:

    One of the medical facilities in my area lost a quarter or more of its staff this week because of mandates. A lot of early retirement and switching to other jobs but reducing hours worked. Going to be an interesting few months

    • W says:

      the 1% wins ww3 regardless of people getting death jabbed w/ the clot shot (fewer pensions to pay, less people consuming oil/water/resources), or if people quit/walk out/fired same result- less money/ability to self support.

      Become self sufficient yesterday.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Gentle reminder… all the chickens died when they encountered Marek’s…

        And radiation poisoning will be a very big problem post BAU….

        But best of luck!

  22. Mike Roberts says:

    Excellent post. It puts information into perspective. We’ve had a fairly tumultuous situation over the last couple of years. Do you think we would already be seeing those sharp changes if things had been “normal” over that time?

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      yes a most excellent post.

      the sharpest change recently might be the spiking natural gas prices especially in the EU.

      pre covid, it seems the EU had set a course for too much reliance on renewables and too little thought to keeping up FF supplies for safety/security.

      diminishing returns never sleep, and have continued thru the 2020/2021 situation, and will continue regardless of any human attempts of intervention.

      maybe the energy situation would be even worse if covid never happened, but whatever, history only happens once.

  23. Richard Dale Patton says:

    I read a newsletter. The letter said that 4 supermajors – Exxon, Chevron, Total and Shell spent 665 billion on E&P from 2000-2010 and 1.15 trillion from 2011-2020. Each decade they found about 45 billion barrels of oil and they produced 50 billion barrels, meaning their reserves are shrinking. Cost of finding and producing a barrel of oil rose from $14/barrel to $26/barrel.

    The supermajors are proxies for non-OPEC+ producers. It sounds like they are not finding many good fields to drill outside of OPEC+..


    • They already know about a lot of heavy oil, but it is basically too expensive to extract. They also know about a lot of shale that would be very expensive to produce, because it is not in sweet spots.

      Also, take the costs of “finding” and “producing” with a grain of salt. This is not an average that includes the fields that they would really need to produce, to ramp their production up. It is not clear what kind of overhead is included either. They like to make the numbers sound low.

      Also, taxes get to be a very substantial piece of the total, when all types are included. (Often over half.) It is easy to miss this piece.

  24. Mirror on the wall says:

    The aggregated attitudes of ordinary folk suggest (induction, not conclusive) that USA has already entered a major recession.


    > America is ALREADY in a recession that could be as bad as 2008: Dartmouth College prof David Blanchflower warns that the real state of the economy has been skewed by Biden’s huge unemployment payments

    America has already slipped into a recession that could be as bad as the 2008 financial meltdown according to key consumer data, a Dartmouth College professor has warned.

    David Blanchflower, of Dartmouth, and Alex Bryson, of University College London, say that every slump since the 1980s has been foreshadowed by 10-point drops in consumer indices from the Conference Board and University of Michigan.

    The indices are drawn from questions put to ordinary Americans about their income expectations, employment conditions and what they expect for the US economy in the near future.

    The Conference Board has measured a 25.3-point drop in 2021, while UM has recorded an 18.4-point slump. This compares to a 19-point and a 21-point dip for the indices respectively ahead of the 2008 global financial crash.

    ‘It seems to us that there is every likelihood that the United States entered recession at the end of 2021,’ the authors write in a new research paper.

    Blanchflower served on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee from 2006 to 2009.

    ‘There are clear downward movements in consumer expectations in the last six months which, according to our rules of thumb regarding 10-point declines, would suggest the economy in the United States is entering recession now (Autumn 2021) – even though employment and wage growth figures suggest otherwise.’

    …. In conclusion, Blanchflower and Bryson say: ‘There is a possibility of course, that these data are giving a false steer. However, missing the declines in these variables in 2007, as most policymakers and economists did, proved fatal.

    • I can believe that the economy is already in recession. I doubt that businesses are considering expanding at all. Biden’s plan to vaccinate all workers in firms with over 100 employees reduces the likelihood that these companies can hire the employees they need. With fewer workers, people will be buying less.

  25. Pingback: Steve St. Angelo: The World is Heading For An Energy Cliff – Olduvai.ca

  26. Marco Bruciati says:

    When started complexity? I think complexity started in 1971 when Nixon leaved Gold and printed Money in Freedom and started big debit

    • That is a good point, about Nixon leaving the gold standard in 1971. I believe that the wages of workers did rise with inflation during the 1970s, so that buying power stayed up. That was a big reason for the high inflation rate then.

      Many women entered the labor force during the 1970s, too. This added to family income, but it put downward pressure on the wages paid to men. Women were often willing to work for less money. In a way, adding women to the labor force acted a little like globalization.

      I looked at the Labor Force Participation Rate for Men. It was highest before 1954. There is a distinct downward slide in the 1960s and 1970s. There is, indeed a big increase in the labor force participation rate for women in the 1970s. January 2001 was the peak in labor force participation for women. After that, labor force participation rates fell for both men and women. China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, helping push that trend along.

  27. Steve Bull says:

    Another excellent article, Gail. Thanks for your continued insights. Who would have imagined the fallout from ecological overshoot could be so consequential?

    • I think that politicians don’t want to think that there can ever be ecological overshoot. Advertisers in news stories don’t want to think about the possibility either.

      As a result, anyone who talks about the issue ends up on the fringes. I decided against putting collapse in the title because it might be too “over the top” for some readers.

      • Xabier says:

        They (politicians, technologists) won’t consider over-shoot, and the impossibility of maintaining some form of complex civilisation, because it makes a mockery of delusions concerning human agency, having power over one’s destiny, etc.

        Better to believe in a globally-planned New Normal and the Singularity, the creation of a new species- genetically-engineered – rather than to accept the natural fate of having blundered into extinction.

        • Ed says:

          I have high hopes for the Kingdom of Musk aka Greater Texas, the Lone Star Monarchy. With six sons the transistion of power could be messy.

  28. I didn’t have a chance to comment on the Joe Rogan -Sanjay Gupta debate.

    In one sentence, Sanjay Gupta has NO stake on Western Civilization.

  29. Justin says:

    Excellent post, Gail. It’s getting real now, my friends!! Stock up on your favorite comfort items whether that’s chocolate, coffee, booze, smokes, etc. but especially popcorn! “Get out the popcorn!” Things are about to get “interesting”!!!

    • Ben Strijbos says:

      Gail, I’ve been reading your blog for many years now. I want to say, you have been spot on al along. It’s really incredible how your theory seems to correspond very nicely with reality. Thanks for the great insights! Keep up the good work. I’m thinking it will not be long now before we lose civilisation as we know it. Collapse seems like it has really begun to accelerate. Our leaders seems absolutely clueless… Even thinking on central bank digital currencies instead of looking back at history and try to prepare for power infrastructure to go down. I’m guessing our dystopia leadership and media is part of the end of fossil fuel Era.i’m hopeful that on the other side, only sane people will remain, if any… Most people seem to live in a fantasy world thinking we’ll go full robotics and ai. It’s crazy to contemplate how big a difference there is between reality and their minds. They are in for a total shock. I fear the western world is totally unprepared for the future events. Thanks !

      • CTG says:

        Thanks Gail for the great piece. The irony…


        • I noticed earlier that the EIA was expecting the US to use more coal, if natural gas is less available. I think that there is a real depletion problem with coal, however, making coal not really a long term solution, even if people decide they are willing to take it, in order to have some kind of energy.

      • Artleads says:

        I, too, am amazed by Gail’s understanding. It’s awesome. But I’m afraid that the average denizens of current society are united in the inability to think straight.

      • Fast Eddy says:


        These are the guys who got shale out of the ground and bought us an extra 10 years of life…

        How are they clueless? What should they have done?

        • nikoB says:

          CEP ten years ago 😉

        • Ben Strijbos says:

          Shale was probably useful. Although I have my doubts it was a net energy contribution. Money wise it was a losing game makes me inclined to think it was useless energy wise to. Those 10 years also meant several 100 million extra humans. I believe actively increasing the death rate would have been useful if started 30 to 50 or so years ago. 70+,no more life extending healthcare allowed. Encourage drinking and driving, encourage smoking. Let Corona and other deadly diseases do their work. Rebuild sailing ships. Start teaching the population to garden and grow food all over the place… Stop sending aid to Africa, etc sounds harsh, but I believe all small steps to decrease the massive population/energy problem would have been useful. We only had policies that sound humane but make the problem worse and we’re still on that same road.

  30. Tim M. says:

    “It turns out that energy modelers haven’t understood how detrimental intermittency really is. They modeled intermittent electricity from renewables (wind, water and solar) as far more helpful than it really is”…exactly right Gail. And they didn’t care how idiotic their models were when billions of tax payer subsidies started lining their pockets. It was a fairy tale pitch from the start, loaded with corruption. I warned about this 20 years ago.

    • Even when modelers did their work in good faith, without any funding, they got the story wrong.

      EROEI analyses are provide terribly optimistic indications when they are done the way they usually are. Modelers really had no idea that intermittency made a difference.

  31. Marco Bruciati says:

    3 E…..environment economy Energy … Complexity of debit and finance …..all toghether….

  32. Mirror on the wall says:

    Wow, quite the tour de force, Gail.

    Your point about Europe and its need for sensible relations with its fossil fuel suppliers really stands out to me. The hostility to Russia is completely insane. The tone of the media in UK is akin to ‘evil Putin steals our gas.’

    Seriously, the sense of entitlement and of superiority, and the plain venom. It is just unbelievable. I would say that it is thoroughly indecent – but, it goes beyond that, it is completely insane and counter-productive.

    I would tell the European governments exactly what you indicate that economists should tell them, but it is like they cannot even see reality any more beyond the social construct of aggressive geopolitical propaganda lenses.

    Stances are supposed to further one’s interests in reality, they are not supposed to be confused with reality and to totally hinder one’s progress. It is like they do not even ‘get’ basic stuff like that any more.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      This is the latest on the Gazprom front. No additional gas for Europe this winter. Like you said, Europe should have made long-term contracts if they wanted more. That is the closest that they would have got to any ‘claim’ on the gas – beyond that, they have absolutely none.


      > Russia decides not to increase natural gas shipments to Europe / 10/18/2021

      Russia is keeping a tight grip on Europe’s energy market, opting against sending more natural gas to the continent even after President Vladimir Putin said he was prepared to boost supplies.

      Gazprom PJSC’s exports to its main markets fell in the first two weeks of October to the lowest since at least 2014 for the time of year, as domestic demand absorbed most of the production gains. The results of auctions for pipeline capacity in November gave no indication that Russia is planning to boost shipments to Europe.

      The cap on supplies remains in place despite Putin’s insistence last week that the country is “prepared to discuss any additional steps” to stabilize energy markets. Soaring energy costs are already prompting companies from chemicals giant BASF SE to fertilizer producers Yara International ASA and CF Industries Holdings Inc. to cut output. Extra Russian gas is seen as the only way to avoid an even deeper supply crunch in the middle of the winter.

      Europe isn’t the only region suffering from the energy crunch. China’s commodities output plunged in September as power rationing and carbon controls reduced operations from metals smelters to oil refiners.

      In a series of auctions on Monday, Gazprom opted not to reserve space extra gas on key transit routes through Ukraine next month. It didn’t book any of the 9.8 million cubic meters a day of pipeline capacity offered at Sudzha, and none of the 5.2 million cubic meters a day available at Sokhranovka — both points on the border between Russia and Ukraine.

      It will continue to send only limited volumes via Poland to Germany. Traders booked only 35% of the gas capacity offered for November at the Mallnow compressor station, where Russia’s Yamal-Europe pipeline ends. That’s similar to levels this month.

      While Gazprom still has the option to book capacity on a daily basis in November, it hasn’t yet done so this month. Russia has repeatedly stated it needs to fill domestic storage sites before boosting exports….

      • Thanks for the update. I suppose that media in Europe could frame this as good news, “We have a chance to meet our climate goals early!” or something like that. I am glad I am not living in Europe.

        On the other hand, the US can’t be too far behind, if things go badly in Europe and China.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      The great thing about all this?

      Remember Taleb’s Black Swan … when he said he attended high powered meetings with other bankers… very serious men and women … very full of themselves… and he felt like bursting out laughing at them for their seriousness….

      The good thing …

      Is that .. all those serious people (who are injecting the death trap) … are gonna get the surprise of their life… https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=231


  33. Charlie says:

    Thanks for your article, the situation is really disturbing.
    I have recently read that Germany, Austria and Switzerland have messages from their governments on how to act in the event of a prolonged and general blackout in Europe.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Let me guess.. stay home — and wait for the food to be delivered…

    • Jan says:

      Austria has quite a lot of hydroelectricity in the Alps and wind farms in Burgenland. A lot of people on the countryside have insular solar systems, that are enough to provide light and basic electronics for some time. There is a vivid memory about old technologies and still neighbourly care. Many people can drive to their parents on the countryside, blocked tunnels may be a problem. The main problem will occur in the cities, when the traffic jam blocks exit roads and water, food, medical supply and heating are missing. Especially young urbans have no storage and no idea how to prepare food.

  34. Peak Oil Pete says:

    Very well written Gail. Thanks again for a great paper.
    The economic Seneca cliff as well as the overall energy EROEI cliff are becoming more significant now. Looks like we may be picking up speed on the way down. Exponentially 🙁

  35. 13 comments on this post, the subject of which is the critical factor of the sudden spike in energy prices, which, given the current economic situation seems rather important.

    four of the comments so far (it’s early yet) are from eddy rummaging in his scrabble bag in search of something remotely intelligent to say about it, and coming up with nothing, tries to turn this post into yet another covidarama.

    Colin Powell was suffering from terminal cancer and was under immuno-suppressant medication. Thus he was an easy covid victim.

    No matter, this was yet another opportunity for eddy to hold down his ‘h’ key and his ‘a’ key. (They are the keys on his keyboard with the letters worn off)

    Just as with the paralympic contestants, and any others perceived as weaker than himself.

    (which –apart from his tailor–means everybody else).

    • nikoB says:


      please let us not ruin a moment like this with quibbles about how he died.
      Let us just get on with celebrating that the POS is dead.


      • Ed says:

        here, here

        • Fast Eddy says:

          The thing is…

          If he didn’t fake the pipe story … the Iraqi oil may not have made it to market… and we likely would have had to spring the Covid/Vaccine lie many years earlier … and we’d all be long dead….

          RIP Colin… RIP

          • JMS says:

            This could be his epitaph:

            Through deception, he tried to save civilization
            (and the profits of his corporate friends of course),
            and alas he inevitably failed. Cry, peasants.

            • Tim Groves says:

              Colin will also remembered for his 2016 comment: “I would rather not have to vote for [Hillary Clinton], although she is a friend I respect. A 70-year-old person with a long track record, unbridled ambition, greedy, not transformational, with a husband still dicking bimbos at home.”

              By the way, I’m still waiting with bated breath for Norman to say anything coherent or insightful (as opposed to inciting)l about this post. Perhaps I can exhale now.

      • if a nation has an army, it must have generals.

        the general takes his orders from the government of the time

        Powell, wasn’t bad at his job, he was wrong on the iraq thing, which he subsequently admitted–most wouldn’t have.
        As a coloured man in the US , he must have been exceptional. Inside the base was desegregated, outside, it was, when he joined the army.. He came from nothing. Give him credit for that.

        Condemning him as a POS, you might as well do the same for everyone involved in the military, and those making weapons as well.

        the real P’s O S are in fact the politicians/ financiers who create the circumstances in which weapons are used. They do that to make money from the bodies of dead soldiers.

        go figure

        • blade says:

          The coloured thing is America is incredibly silly.

          Anyone not white in America is granted precedent through Affirmative Action. If you are black in America, you can score hundreds of points lower on tests compared to other races and be admitted over someone who scored much higher than you.

          You can be lower qualified for a job and get the job due to Affirmative Action/Discrimination policies.

          Affirmative Action policies are one of the reasons why America is in such social/cultural turmoil.

          Please don’t comment regarding these relations when you do not live here obviously. It marks you as a fool.

          • i was marked as a fool years ago. I blend in now.

            But the USA created its colour/white problem through the import of slave energy during the 18th/19th c.

            You are living with the consequences. We all are. Black history since 1865 could not i think, be described as silly. I don’t have to live in the USA to be aware of it.

            affirmative action is a vain effort to remedy the problem (in part) but if only 10% of reports about police interactions with coloured people are true, you have a serious problem, which can only get worse are social conditions (ie energy depletion) get worse.
            I think the people involved are going to find their problems more serious than ‘silly’.

            Your discontent with the ‘points score’ thing seems to suggest you feel you are somehow ‘scored against’. I don’t know.

            The points i’ve listed above are why the USA is in such a social turmoil.

            History makes clear that oppressed people always–always–turn on their oppressors. And we brits are just as guilty. i make no excuses there either.

            The southern coloured races were oppressed by the northern whites. (we had guns–they didn’t). We will all face the consequences.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Nah… he died from Covid… you can’t have it both ways norm…

      Booster 4 is certain https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=231

      Made your appointment? it is… a numbers game

      • Tim Groves says:

        Good observation, Eddy. He died from Covid, while supposedly being “fully protected” by two shots of jab juice.

        I’m remembering all those nursing home residents who were well over the average age of mortality and on their last legs with multiple comorbidities, but when their died the comorbidities were ignored in the rush to label them victims of Covid—without a peep out of Norm.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Let’s call him lucky norm… lucky norm has survived round 3 of Vaccine Roulette!

          Bossche says the period between boosters will shorten with each jab… cuz it’s the same shit in the booster as we as in the first two injections hahahahahaahahahhahhahaha

          That strengthened virus is going to make short work of injection 3… so soon we’ll see norm putting his life on the line again ….

          This should be a reality tee vee show… we would watch norm deadlifting … then boring people with his end of more stuff… more deadlifting … then norm calling the injection centre to make his appointment … then norm in his car driving to his potential death…

          Riveting stuff… hey btw — did you know they used tape on the lunar lander because the rivets would shake loose (even though they used rivets on other parts of the contraption)…. shake loose like all those paper mache panels did…

          hahahahahaha… rivets for my bunghole


  36. neil says:

    One of your most thought provoking submissions in a very long time. Thanks, Gail

    • Thanks! I was hoping that what I was writing would be intelligible to readers. It seemed like there were a lot of pieces of the story that needed to be brought together into one place.

      EROEI theory only works at a fairly high level of aggregation. If doesn’t work the way it has been applied to the output of a wind turbine or solar panel. There really needs to be a whole system offsetting the intermittency. In fact, there needs to be staffing and pipelines for a fairly high level of fossil fuels, so that they can step in when wind and solar are not available.

      • monkmil says:

        The majority of our leaders and experts seem to be terrified of doing whole-system analysis

      • doomphd says:

        Another great post, Gail. I wonder if encouraging shale oil production in the USA was a way to get the billionaire investors to fund what was always a risky investment so that oil production could continue for awhile longer as a debt-driven vehicle. It never did make much sense financially, but when your back’s up against the wall with energy, like with the Germans in WWII, you do extreme things like make oil out of coal. Now that the best areas have been extracted, the investments have slowed to a stop, those extraction companies are closing and we get to see the real consequences of oil scarcity in the USA and elsewhere.

  37. Fast Eddy says:

    Hmmm… this should go over well…..

    The Chicago Police Department’s top cop has threatened to deny retirement benefits to those who choose to retire from the job rather than comply with the city’s COVID-19 vaccination policy, according to local reports.

    Chicago Police Superintendent David O. Brown said that those officers who do choose to retire rather than follow City Hall’s orders “may be denied retirement credentials,” the Chicago Tribune reported, citing Brown’s Sunday memo.

    A spokesperson for the police department would not comment or confirm the report to Fox News and referred further questions to the office of Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot.


    Chicago Police Union President Estimates More Than 3,000 Officers Defying City’s Vaccine Reporting Mandate


    When does the national guard/military step in?

    • Azure Kingfisher says:

      The other day, I heard two things about the national guard replacement idea for hospital workers in New York:

      1. When these workers are not called for active duty they are primarily working in the private sector, at hospitals throughout the US. To summon them for active duty is to create a staffing shortage at a hospital somewhere else in the US (i.e. robbing Peter to pay Paul).

      2. When these workers do get called for active duty they are typically paid less than they are paid in the private sector. So, when these workers are pulled from their private sector jobs to fill vacancies in New York hospitals they will likely be unhappy about it, given that they’re filling an employment gap that was created via a manufactured crisis.

      As for Chicago, the city government is going to lose this one. They’re attempting to violate basic contract law by refusing to negotiate terms with the union. The city may have a case for implementing their precious “vaccine” requirement for future employment contracts but they’re unlikely to get away with this attempt to change signed, established, existing employment contracts in this way, without the consent of the union. Absolute fools.

      Further, think of the implications of this if the city is able to win in court. What will that do to the public notion of “rule of law” and the reliability of contracts in general? If a government entity can whimsically change the terms of an employment contract, bypassing negotiations with the other party, then who in their right mind would go into business with that government ever again? Under such circumstances, clearly these government a$$hats cannot be trusted!

      There’s the rub: in their quest for control, power, dominance, and the pretense of authority, these government idiots are going to shred what’s left of civilized life by violating their own legal system because they think the COVID-19 scamdemic gives them a blank check to demand whatever they want. If they violate the sanctity of contract agreement, then all bets are off and people will act accordingly, as though the law no longer matters.

  38. Sam says:

    From the chart you show on oil production shale oil is ramping up but from what I am reading is that shale oil has peaked in production and in decline. Without the shale play what would have happened? Theoretically speaking

    • Look carefully at the US oil production chart (Figure 4). The shale portion is dropping in 2020. It has not returned to the 2019 level in 2021. Look at the rest of the chart. Without the shale portion, there isn’t very much. In fact, what there is, is fairly quickly declining. There weren’t many other producers increasing their oil supply.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Who knows if the shale info is true — it could be falling off a cliff right now but we’d not be given the data.

      • Sam says:

        Yes Gail you are right; I was looking at it on my phone. Is it because things like Covid or low prices or is it because of over drilling and it’s actually in decline. We are going into a deep depression I am afraid. The talk of inflation is false flag I am afraid. Soon the Fed will be scared to keep the markets up as more news comes out about manipulation by Fed officials

  39. Fast Eddy says:

    Maximum Vaccination

    The vaccines can’t control Corona, which is why they won’t stop vaccinating.


      • shastatodd says:

        He continues to hijack the conversation to suit his meme… sigh

        • Tim Groves says:

          You are welcome to chime in if you have anything you’d like to say.

          Also, you are totally free to role past any comments you don’t want to read.

          I have friends who, every time we talk, complain about those irritating pop-up ads that ruin their internet browsing experience. I always reply that I’ve never been bothered by them. I just ignore them or else shut them down and move on. I regard them as the price I have to pay to view the content I want to see or read.

          Of course, sighing is another perfectly good way of dealing with an unwelcome situation of this kind.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Fast Eddy IS the conversation ….

          If there was a paywall on FEs comments… you’d pay … come on .. admit it…

          Otherwise you’d just hit Delete….

          Feel free to make MOREONIC comments… and become fodder.

        • as i’ve pointed out many times, this is his only audience

          his bag of scrabble letter tiles his only source of information.

          the ‘third party self’ his only source of self justification.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            I assume you are referring to The Entity … otherwise known as Fast Eddy… aka God… the Emperor… The Destroyer — and the author of the CEP.

            He is available to take questions but please do not attempt to address his Highness directly rather you may post here and I will pass the questions to Him…

            HE is asking if norm has had his 4th booster yet… norm? Wait … assume the kowtow position before speaking

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I’ve got this awesome cartoon but it’s in whatsapp so cannot post it…

        The caption is 2030… and there is a guy on a chair with a gas mask on.. and a medic also with a gas mask… and the guy’s body is covered in bandages… each bandage is where he was jabbed for covid… the medic is trying to find an empty space to jam the next one in …

        Of course as we know this is not going to happen because … https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=231 but it’s rather amusing

        norm – how nice of you to do your part in bringing about the extinction and ensuring FE does not have to endure face ripping … I salute you for your bravery and sacrifice!!!

  40. Marco says:

    Very strange markets not yet crashed. Thank you very beutifil post

  41. Fast Eddy says:

    In the brief statement, the Powell family said he had died on Monday morning from COVID-19, and had been fully vaccinated against the disease. The statement did not address such matters as what vaccine he received or whether he’d had a booster shot, when he fell ill, and whether he may have had underlying health conditions that contributed to his illness.


    Done in by the Booster no doubt hahahahahaahahahha

    How fitting for a guy who lived by the lie … and died by the lie

    • Rodster says:

      No, no, no. He caught Covid from an unvaxxed person.

      • Rodster says:

        We have to make the unvaxxed look bad. We will never have Norm’s, Dunce and Mike’s Vax Utopia as long as there are unvaxxed heathens walking the Earth. They must go.

  42. Fast Eddy says:

    Colin Powell, 84, fully vaccinated and dead of Covid

    Alex Berenson 7 hr ago

    Just another “rare” “mild” “breakthrough” case.

    And the highest profile Covid death to date by far.

    Because vaccines work.

    Rest in peace, General Powell.

    • Rodster says:

      Rest in Piss. Another war criminal gone.

      • TIm Groves says:

        No, no. Colin was an honorable man misled and probably given a very handsome incentive to lend his gravitas to the Bush II team and its war effort. He warned us about weapons of mass destruction, and now, ironically, he’s been killed by one!!

        Donald Rumsfeld passed in July and Now Colin Powell. These things, my granny use to say, always come in threes. Amazingly, Dick Cheney is only eighty, but he is known to have a dickie heart.

    • Ed says:

      No Eddy. May the war pig burn in he11.

    • Rodster says:

      ESPN reporter Allison Williams gives up her high paying job and quits the network rather than take “The Jab”. A true hero-ette !

    • TIm Groves says:

      This one is also comedy gold. Vinny Curry touted himself getting the jab—twice!—(and not mentioned in this article) and a couple of months later gets his spleen removed and insists it has nothing to do with the jabs.

      New York Jets defensive end Vinny Curry was diagnosed last month with a rare blood disorder that required the removal of his spleen and triggered complications that will cause him to miss the entire season, he revealed Wednesday in a statement.

      In an Instagram post, Curry, 33, a starter on the Philadelphia Eagles’ 2017 Super Bowl championship team, said he was initially projected to return in the middle of September. But he explained that blood clots formed and forced him to go on blood thinners. That, he said, prevented him from having physical contact for three to six months.

      Curry said he’s planning to play in 2022.

      Well good luck with that.


      • Fast Eddy says:

        Here’s a good one … had some Clot Shot Vaxxers visit today — old folks we know so I don’t go hard on them other than to tell them about me mate with the Pfizer heart (of course he surely must have had hidden heart problems … that coincidentally manifested the day of the jab 2…)

        Anyhow… one of their neighbours who we know well – started to have serious heart issues — right around the jab time — they are all seniors so got the Pfizer around the time her problems started..

        She is putting it down to anything but the Pfizer of course… they must be coming up for Boosters soon… she might want to start writing her obituary because without a doubt she’s going to get that 3rd shot…. oblivious to the fact that her wrecked heart is Pfizer heart…..

  43. Fast Eddy says:

    Thanks for the new post…

    Two things before I read it:

    Check out what the re ta rd ed troll has been up to ….you will not be able to unsee so think before clicking ttps://twitter.com/i/status/1449564583878922242

    And then … and then…. there is this …. and then there is this….

    100% confirmation … of … The CEP.

    How the Covid Boosters will Result in a Catastrophic Outcome – Geert Vanden Bossche

    On the contrary, it would be reasonable to assume that upon an additional booster shot the more potent Abs further contribute to selecting S-directed immune escape variants and, therefore, turn the previously primed population in an even more fertile breeding ground for the highly infectious Delta variant.

    Based on all of the above, it is reasonable to expect booster injections to only enable the virus to more rapidly evolve resistance to the vaccines. This evolution would be dramatically expedited by vaccinating and boosting more and more younger age groups. More potent anti-S Abs induced by additional booster injections will further erode their innate Ab-mediated immunity and accelerate the pace at which SARS-CoV-2 evolves from more infectious variants into variants that increasingly escape from neutralizing anti-S Abs.

    More specifically, Israel’s booster efforts are likely to generate a spectacular surge of morbidity and mortality rates in the population as a combined result of increased S-directed immune selection pressure in vaccinees (i.e., optimizing the breeding ground for the Delta variant) and enhanced infectivity rates in the unvaccinated.

    From a scientific viewpoint it is, therefore, difficult to understand how booster immunizations using vaccines which are not evolution-proof could prevent a highly mutable virus from escaping neutralizing anti-S Abs while driving the pandemic in a catastrophic direction, both in Israel and worldwide.

    How can the WHO stand by and watch as this additional experiment unfolds, soon to be followed by other countries?


  44. richardha says:

    Aloha Gail. I agree with you 100%. On Hawai’i Island we have geothermal that can provide electricity for the entire state for 500,000 to a million years. We are sitting over a geothermal “sweet spot”. The entire island is sitting on rocks saturated by water. We can drill down access the hot water, which comes up as steam and spins turbines to make electricity. The heat is free. We can make stable and resilient electricity that will not rise in price. Since there is no carbon in the process we can make green hydrogen. Some folks argue that geothermal to hydrogen is I only 23% efficient. But, 23% of free is still free.

    • neil says:

      Well, why aren’t you doing it?

    • I know that the Big Island has some geothermal, but not a huge amount. I was thinking that it was damaged with the last volcano eruption. Remind me of the current status of Hawai’i Island’s geothermal. One of the issues is that geothermal works best when it is near volcanoes. When they erupt, it tends to damage the hardware.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        What works with geothermal is when you have BAU functioning and providing all the spare parts that are required to operate the geothermal plant + delivery the energy to where it is needed.

        I suppose one could continue to warm one’s hands over the lava flow post collapse?

        Then there are the spent fuel ponds


        • richardha says:

          Hawai’i is at the end of the supply chain out in the middle of the ocean we are very aware that we need to scale to our size market. With geothermal since the heat and steam is free for 500,000 to a million years, we can make hydrogen. Hydrogen results in high heat that allows us to do glass making, cement, basalt products, keeping in mind that the US mainland relies on natural gas, a finite resource, to make hydrogen. It’s cost will rise because natural gas is a finite resource, geothermal heat will be free for 500,000 to a million years. Ghawar is lucky if they are making affordable oil in 300/years.

      • richardha says:

        Aloha Gail
        The geothermal plant you visited was located on the East Rift zone. You are right it is live hot lava. There are 5 volcanoes on Hawai’i Island. We advocate for using the heat under the dormant volcanoes, just like the facility we visited in the Phillipines. Geologists estimate that the volcanic heat under Hawai’i Island can supply the entire state several times over.

  45. Rodster says:

    “Steve St. Angelo: The World is Heading for an Energy Cliff”

    • It sounds from the title that his view is pretty much my view.

      • Rodster says:

        It is and it’s a great interview. Well worth the listen.

        • Artleads says:

          I, for one, found it very helpful. Great that he’s a plain spoken old boy…just the type that doesn’t press one’s BS alarm button. Now I’m getting quite cross with those who talk about renewables, for more and more I see that this “renewables will save us” meme is the root of nearly all our social pathologies. This good gentlemen strengthens my resolve to come on like a toothed tiger to those assumptions. I bite and don’t let go.

  46. Rodster says:

    In my area gas price are currently pushing close to $3.25 a gallon.

  47. Rodster says:

    Yes we do have an energy predicament. Interesting times indeed. It just gives more validiation to what you have written about and the 1972 book “Limits to Growth”.

    • Right. In an earlier version of the post, I had a reference to the book The Limits to Growth, but the post was too long. I was looking for things to cut, and it was one of the things that disappeared.

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