Spike in energy prices suggests that sharp changes are ahead

An analysis of what is going terribly wrong in the world economy

The world economy requires stability. People living in the world economy need stability, as well. They need food every day and a place to live. Children need a home situation that they can count on.

Back in the 1950 to 1979 era, when energy supplies of many kinds were growing rapidly, it was possible to build stability into the economic system: Jobs with a company were often long-time careers; pensions after retirement were offered; electricity was sold through regulated “utilities” that charged prices that wrapped in long-term maintenance of the electric grid and the cost of fuel, among other things.

But as high energy prices hit in the 1970s, the system became more and more strained. The mood changed. Margaret Thatcher became the Prime Minister of the UK in 1979, and Ronald Reagan became President of the United States in 1981. Under their leadership, debt was increasingly used to cover longer-term costs, and competition was encouraged. A person might say that a move toward greater complexity, but less stability, of the economic system had begun.

Now, through several iterations, the economy has become increasingly complex, with less and less redundancy to provide stability. The energy price spike that is being experienced today is a warning that something is very, very wrong. As I see the situation, the trend toward complexity has gone too far; the economic system is starting to break down. Sharp changes appear to be ahead. The world economy is shifting into contraction mode, with more and more parts of the system failing.

In this post, I will discuss some of the issues involved. It turns out that energy modelers haven’t understood how detrimental intermittency really is. They modeled intermittent electricity from renewables (wind, water and solar) as far more helpful than it really is. This has been confusing to everyone. The sharp changes that the title of this post refers to represent an early stage of economic collapse.

[1] If energy supplies are inexpensive and widely available, it is easy to build an economy.

I have written in the past about the need for energy supplies to keep the economy functioning properly being analogous to the need for food, to keep humans functioning properly.

The economy doesn’t operate on a single type of energy, any more than a human lives on a single type of food. The economy uses a portfolio of energy types. These include human labor, energy directly from sunlight, and energy from burning various types of fuels, including biomass and fossil fuels.

As long as energy sources are inexpensive and readily available, an economy can grow and provide goods and services for an increasing number of citizens. We can think of this as being analogous to, “As long as buying and preparing food takes little of our wages (or time, if we are growing it ourselves), then there are plenty of wages (or time) left over for other activities.”

But once energy prices start spiking, it looks like there is not enough to go around. In the absence of ways to hide the problem, citizens need to cut back on non-essentials, pushing the economy into recession. Or businesses stop making essential products that require natural gas or coal, such as fertilizer or fuel additives to hold emissions down. The lack of such products can, by itself, be very disruptive to an economy.

[2] Once energy supplies become constrained, energy prices tend to spike. In the early stages of these price spikes, adding complexity allows the economy to better tolerate higher energy costs.

There are many ways to work around the problem of rising energy prices, at least temporarily. For example:

  • Build vehicles, such as cars, that are smaller and more fuel efficient.
  • Extend fossil fuel supplies by building nuclear power plants, hydroelectric generating plants, wind turbines, solar panels, and geothermal electricity generation.
  • Make factories more efficient.
  • Add insulation to buildings; eliminate any cracks that might allow outside air into buildings.
  • Instead of pre-funding capital costs, use debt to transfer these costs to later purchasers of energy products.
  • Encourage competition in providing different parts of electricity production and distribution.
  • Develop time-of-day pricing for electricity, so as to keep prices down to the marginal cost of production, even though this does not, in total, repay all costs of production and distribution.
  • Cut back on routine maintenance of electricity transmission systems.
  • Purchase coal and natural gas imports using spot pricing, rather than long term contracts, as long as these seem to be lower-priced than long-term commitments.
  • Throughout the economy, take advantage of economies of scale and mechanization. Build huge companies. Replace human labor wherever possible.
  • Stimulate the economy by increasing debt availability and lowering interest rates. This is helpful because a more rapidly growing economy can withstand higher energy prices.
  • Use global supply chains to source as large a share of manufacturing inputs as possible from countries with low wages and low energy costs.
  • Build very “lean” just-in-time supply chains.
  • Create complex financial systems, with debt resold and repackaged in different ways, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds.

Together, these approaches comprise “complexity.” They tend to make the economic system less resilient. At least temporarily, they pass fewer of the higher costs of energy products through to current citizens. As a result, the economy can temporarily withstand a higher price of energy. But the system tends to become brittle and prone to failure.

[3] There are limits to added complexity. In fact, complexity limits are what are likely to make the economic system fail.

Joseph Tainter, in The Collapse of Complex Societies, makes the point that there are diminishing returns to added complexity. For example, the changes that result in the biggest gains in fuel savings for vehicles are the ones added first.

Another drawback of added complexity is the extreme wage disparity that tends to result. Instead of everyone earning close to the same amount, those at the top of the hierarchy get a disproportionate share of the wages. This is what leads to many of the problems we are seeing today. Would-be workers don’t want to apply for jobs, even when they seem to be available. Citizens become unhappy and rebellious. Lower-paid workers may not eat well, so that pandemics spread more easily.

The underlying problem is that population tends to rise, but it becomes harder and harder to produce food and other necessities with the arable land and energy resources available. Ugo Bardi uses Figure 1 to show the shape of the expected decline in goods and services produced in such a situation:

Figure 1. Seneca Cliff by Ugo Bardi.

According to Bardi, Seneca in the title refers to a statement written by Lucius Annaeus Seneca in 91 CE, “It would be of some consolation for the feebleness of ourselves and our works if all things should perish as slowly as they come into being. As it is, increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.” In fact, this shape seems to approximate the type of cycle Turchin and Nefedov observed when analyzing several agricultural civilizations that collapsed in their book Secular Cycles.

[4] An increasing amount of complexity has been added since 1981 to help compensate for rising oil and other energy prices.

The prices of commodities, including oil, tend to be extremely variable because storage is very limited, relative to the large quantities used every day. There needs to be a very close match between supply and demand, or prices will rise very high or fall very low.

Oil is exceptionally important because it is the single largest source of energy for the world economy. It is heavily used in food production and in the extraction of minerals of all types. If the price of oil increases, the price of food tends to rise, as does the price of metals of many types. Oil is also important as a transportation fuel.

In the early days, before depletion led to higher extraction costs, oil prices remained stable and low (Figure 2), as a result of utility-type pricing by the Texas Railroad Commission. Oil prices started to spike, once depletion became more of a problem.

Figure 2. Brent-equivalent oil prices in 2020 US$. Based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Economists tell us that oil and other commodity prices depend on “supply and demand.” When we look at turning points for oil prices, it becomes clear that financial manipulations play a significant role in determining oil demand. Such manipulations lead to prices that have practically nothing to do with the underlying cost of producing commodities. The huge changes in prices seem to reflect actions by central bankers to encourage or discourage lending (QE on Figure 3).

Figure 3. Monthly Brent oil prices with dates of US beginning and ending Quantitative Easing. Later Quantitative Easing did not bring oil prices back up to their prior level.

Quantitative easing (QE) makes it cheaper to borrow money. Adding QE tends to raise oil prices; deleting QE seems to reduce oil prices. These prices have little direct connection with the cost of extracting oil from the ground. Instead, prices are closely related to the amount of complexity being added to the system and whether it is having its intended impact on energy prices.

At the time of the 1973-1974 oil crisis, many people thought that the world was truly running out of oil. The petroleum industry did, indeed, succeed in extracting more. The 2005 to 2008 period was another period of concern that the world might be running out of oil. Then, in 2014, when oil prices suddenly fell, the dominant story suddenly became, “There is plenty of oil. The world’s biggest problem is climate change.”

In fact, there was no real reason to believe that the shortage situation had changed. US oil from shale had a brief run-up in production in the 2007 to 2019 period, but this production was unprofitable for producers, especially after oil prices dropped in 2014 (Figures 2 and 3). Producers of oil from shale are no longer investing very much in new production. With the sweet spots of fields depleted and this low level of investment, it will not be surprising if oil production from shale continues to fall.

Figure 4. US crude and condensate oil production for the 48 states, Alaska, and for shale basins, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.

The real story is that the supply of oil, coal and natural gas is limited by the extent to which additional complexity can be added to the economy, to keep selling prices so that they are both:

  • High enough for producers of these products, so that they can both pay adequate taxes and make adequate reinvestment.
  • Low enough for consumers, especially for the many consumers around the world with very low wages.

Many people have missed the point that, at least since 2014, financial manipulations have not kept prices for fossil fuels high enough for producers. Low prices are driving them out of business. This is the case for oil, coal and natural gas. In fact, low prices caused by giving wind and solar priority on the electric grid are driving producers of nuclear electricity out of business, as well.

Oil producers require a price of $120 a barrel or more to cover all of their costs. Without a much higher price than available today (even with oil prices over $80 per barrel), shale oil production can be expected to fall. In fact, OPEC and its affiliates won’t ramp up production by very large amounts either because they, too, need much higher prices to cover all their costs.

[5] Economists and analysts of many types put together models that give misleading results because they missed several important points.

After oil prices fell in late 2014, it became fashionable to believe that vast amounts of fossil fuels are available for extraction, and that our biggest problem in the future would be climate change. Besides low prices, one reason for this concern was the high level of fossil fuel proven reserves reported by many countries around the world.

Figure 5. Ratio of reported proven reserves at December 31, 2020, to reported production in 2020 based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Even fossil fuel companies started to invest in renewables because of the poor returns experienced from fossil fuel investments. It looked to them as if investment in renewables would be more profitable than continued investment in fossil fuel production. Of course, the profits of renewables were largely the result of government subsidies, particularly the subsidy of “going first.” Giving wind and solar first access when they happen to be available tends to lead to very low, and even negative, wholesale prices for other electricity producers. This drives these other producers of electricity out of business, even though they are really needed to correct for the intermittency of renewables.

There were many things that hardly anyone understood:

  • Energy prices in today’s financially manipulated economy bear little relationship to the true cost of production.
  • Fossil fuel producers need to be guaranteed long-term high prices, if there is to be any chance of ramping up production.
  • Intermittent renewables (including wind, solar, and hydroelectric) have little value in a modern economy unless they are backed up with a great deal of fossil fuels and nuclear electricity.
  • Our real problem with fossil fuels is a shortage problem. Price signals are very misleading.
  • The models of economists are mostly wrong. The use of carbon pricing and intermittent renewables will simply disadvantage the countries adopting them.

The reason why geologists and fossil fuel producers give misleading information about the amount of oil, coal and natural gas available to be extracted is because it is not something they can be expected to know. In a sense, the question is, “How much complexity can the economy withstand before it becomes too brittle to handle a temporary shock, such as a pandemic shutdown?” It isn’t the amount of fossil fuels in the ground that matters; it is the follow-on effects of the high level of complexity on the rest of the economy that matters.

[6] At this point, ramping up fossil fuel production would be very difficult because of the long-term low prices for fossil fuels. Unfortunately, the economy cannot get along with only today’s small quantity of renewables.

Figure 6. World energy supply by type, based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Most people don’t realize just how slowly renewables have been ramping up as a share of world energy supplies. For 2020, wind and solar together amounted to only 5% of world energy supplies and hydroelectric amounted to 7% of world energy supplies. The world economy cannot function on 12% (or perhaps 20%, if more items are included) of its current energy supply any more than a person’s body can function on 12% or 20% of its current calorie intake.

Also, the world’s reaction to the pandemic acted, in many ways, like oil rationing. Figure 6 shows that consumption was reduced for oil, coal and natural gas. An even bigger impact was on the prices of these fuels. Prices fell, even though the cost of production was not falling. (See, for example, Figure 2 for the fall in oil prices.)

These lower prices left fossil fuel providers even worse off financially than they were previously. Some providers went out of business. They certainly do not have reserve funds set aside to develop the new fields that they would need to develop, if they were to ramp up production for oil, coal and natural gas now. Because of this, it is virtually impossible to ramp up fossil fuel production now. A lead time of at least several years is needed, besides a clear way of funding the higher production.

[7] Every plant and animal and, in fact, every growing thing, needs to win the battle against intermittency.

As mentioned in the introduction, humans need to eat on a regular basis. Hunter-gatherers solved the problem of intermittency of harvests by moving from area to area, so that their own location would match the location of food availability. Early agriculture and cities became possible when the growing of grain was perfected. Grain was both storable and portable, so it could be used year around. It could also be brought to cities, allowing people to live in a different location from where the crops were stored.

We can think of any number of adaptations in the plant and animal kingdom to intermittency. Some birds migrate. Bears hibernate. Deciduous trees lose their leaves each fall and grow them back again each spring.

Our supply of any of our energy products is in some sense intermittent. Oil wells deplete, so new ones need to be drilled. Biomass burned for fuel grows for a while, before it is cut down (or falls down) and is burned for fuel. Solar energy is available only until a cloud comes in front of the sun. In winter, solar energy is mostly absent.

[8] Any modeling of the cost of energy needs to take into account the full system needed to “bridge the intermittency gap.”

As far as I can see, the only pricing system that generates enough funds is one that takes into account the full system needs, including the need to overcome intermittency and the need for transportation of the energy to the user. In fact, I would argue that even more than this needs to be included. Good roads are generally required if the system is to be kept in good repair. Good schools are needed for would-be workers in the energy system. Any costs associated with pollution should be wrapped into the required price. Thus, the true cost of energy generation really should include a fairly substantial load for taxes for all of the governmental services that the system requires. And, of course, all parts of the system should pay their workers a living wage.

This high level of pricing can only be provided by utility type pricing of fossil fuels and electricity. The use of long-term contracts to purchase fossil fuels, uranium or electricity can also build in most of these costs. The alternative approach, buying fuels using spot contracts or pricing based on time of day electricity supply, looks appealing when costs are low. But such systems don’t build in sufficient funding for replacement of depleted fields or the full cost of a 24/7/365 electrical system.

Modelers didn’t understand that the “low prices now, higher prices later” approaches that were being advocated don’t really work for the long term. As limits are approached, prices tend to spike badly. Modelers had assumed that the economic system could handle such spikes in prices, and that the spikes in prices would quickly lead to new supply or adaptation. In fact, huge spikes in prices are very disruptive to the system. New supply is what is really needed, but providers tend to be too damaged by previous long periods of artificially low prices to provide this supply. The approach looks great in academic papers, but it leads to rolling blackouts and unfilled natural gas reservoirs for winter.

[9] Major changes for the worse seem to be ahead for the world economy.

At this point, it seems as if complexity has gone too far. The pandemic moved the world economy in the direction of contraction but prices of fossil fuels tend to spike as the economy opens up.

Figure 7. Chart by BBC/Bloomberg. Source: BBC

The recent spikes in prices are highly unlikely to produce the natural gas, coal and oil that is required. They are more likely to cause recession. Fossil fuel suppliers need high prices guaranteed for the long term. Even if such guarantees could be provided, it would still take several years to ramp up production to the level needed.

The general trend of the economy is likely to be in the direction of the Seneca Cliff (Figure 1). Everything won’t collapse all at once, but big “chunks” may start breaking away.

The debt system is a very vulnerable part. Debt is, in effect, a promise of goods or services made with energy in the future. If the energy isn’t there, the promised goods and services won’t be available. Governments may try to hide this problem with new debt, but governments can’t solve the underlying problem of missing goods and services.

Pension systems of all kinds are also vulnerable. If fewer goods and services are being made in total, they will need to be divided up differently. Pensioners are likely to get a reduced share, or nothing at all.

Importers of fossil fuels seem likely to be especially affected by price spikes because exporters have the ability to cut back in the quantity available for export, if total supply is inadequate. Europe is one part of the world that is especially dependent on oil, natural gas and coal imports.

Figure 8. Total energy production and consumption of Europe, based on data of BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. The gap between consumption and production is filled by imports of oil, coal, natural gas and biofuels. Within Europe, countries also import electricity from each other.
Figure 9. Europe energy production by fuel based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

The combined production of hydroelectric, wind and solar and biofuels (in Figure 9) amounts to only 19% of Europe’s total energy consumption (shown in Figure 8). There is no possible way that Europe can get along only with renewable energy, at any foreseeable time in the future.

European economists should have told European citizens, “There is no way you can get along using renewables alone for many, many years. Treat the countries that are exporting fossil fuels to you very well. Sign long term contracts with them. If they want to use a new pipeline, raise no objection. Your bargaining power is very low.” Instead, European economists talked about saving the planet from carbon dioxide. It is an interesting idea, but the sad truth is that if Europe takes itself out of the contest for energy imports, it mostly leaves more fossil fuels for exporters to sell to others.

China stands out as well, as the world’s largest consumer of energy, and as the world’s largest importer of oil, coal and natural gas. It is already encountering electricity shortages that are leading to rolling blackouts. In fact, rolling blackouts in China started almost a year ago in late 2020. China is, of course, a major exporter of goods to the rest of the world. If China has major energy problems, the rest of the world will no longer be able to count on China’s exports. Lack of China’s exports, by itself, could be a huge problem for the rest of the world.

I could continue speculating on the changes ahead. The basic problem, as I see it, is that we have reached limits on oil, coal and natural gas extraction, pretty much simultaneously. The limits are really complexity limits. The renewables that we have today aren’t able to save us, regardless of what the models of Mark Jacobson and others might say.

In the next few years, I am afraid that we will find out how collapse actually proceeds in a very interconnected world economy.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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4,474 Responses to Spike in energy prices suggests that sharp changes are ahead

  1. Have yet to read ONE pro Aaron Rogers article concerning his position regarding the BIG Pharma vaccination mandate and alternative treatments or criticism of the Serum they are pushing on innocent people

    From the Spun…typical

    As it turns out, Rodgers reportedly went and got alternative, homeopathic treatments done against COVID, but the NFL does not consider that being vaccinated. On his show today, Irvin took Rodgers to task for not being upfront about his vaccination status, saying “shame on you.”

    “I can’t even start in on Aaron Rodgers,” Irvin said, in a clip from The Michael Irvin Podcast that will be released tomorrow, provided to The Spun. “Because I know you did not hold out this whole offseason, holding everybody accountable and saying everybody is falling short and not doing what they’re supposed to do, and you’re not vaccinated? Come on man. Cut that mess out. That blows my mind.”

    Irvin went on to argue that for if a team is “paying you 30 or 40 million dollars” they should be able to require you to get the jab. That statement is of course up for debate, but Irvin went on to say that Rodgers should have gotten the shots anyway.

    “Aaron Rodgers, shame on you for pointing that one finger at [general manager] Brian Gutekunst and all these people in the front office and disregarding those damn three fingers that’s pointing back at you. Go get vaccinated man and stop messing around. Stop playing around man. You know the team needs you.”

    Overall, these statements shouldn’t be surprising. Irvin has been bullishly pro-vaccine for several months now, arguing in the summer that players who don’t get inoculated against COVID-19 are costing their team a shot at a championship

    Rodgers will miss at least one game due to testing positive. He won’t face the Kansas City Chiefs this weekend but could be back for the Packers

    True, Rogers does not need the money from football or endorsements..
    But his reputation is being slammed to the ground like a sake in the public forum…doubt it will ever recover if it’s up to big boys…
    Like FE repeatedly says, play their game and get handsomely rewarded

  2. “UK travellers who refuse Covid booster jabs could face travel restrictions.

    “Ministers have drawn up plans to bring back quarantine and testing for travellers who refuse to take a booster jab, it has been reported.”

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-travellers-covid-booster-jab-travel-restriction-b964815.html

  3. “Venice Artisans Pushed to the Brink by Gas Crisis… In the unusually cold workshop where he normally creates glass vases and candelabras, Fabio Onesto stared in despair at the seven furnaces he turned off in mid-October to save money.

    “He stopped production after his gas bill in September rose to 24,450 euros, or around $28,000, almost triple what he paid in the previous months of this year, and more than he possibly can sell his wares for.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/venice-artisans-pushed-to-the-brink-by-gas-crisis-11636221171

    • “Russian gas flows via Yamal-Europe pipeline to Germany halted again…

      “The reversal of gas flows through one of the three major pipelines carrying Russian gas into western Europe is the second time the situation has developed in a matter of days. In the past week benchmark European gas futures rose as much as 23% due to the halting of westward flows.”

      https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-gas-flows-via-yamal-europe-pipeline-germany-halted-again-2021-11-06/

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        High natural gas prices are terrible for the economy!

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      We don’t realize how much of the total sales price that energy costs comprise.

  4. “Supply shortages to persist into 2022 as China shuts down factories again…

    “Sean Welch clicked on the email that had popped up in his inbox. It did not make for easy reading. A Chinese manufacturer serving his Agon Systems business, which provides security tags for retailers, warned him it would not meet delivery deadlines.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/british-firms-suffer-china-shuts-down-factories-covid-66rx8g8fr

    • “Cars Cost More Than Ever, and They’re Selling Faster, Too… Selling Faster, But Fewer…

      “With so few cars and trucks available this year, sales have slumped almost as sharply as they did in 2020, when Covid-19 restrictions in much of the country virtually shut down the industry.”

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-05/cars-cost-more-than-ever-with-sales-slumps-amid-shortages

      • “When will supply chain frictions and input shortages abate?

        “Expect disruptions to last well into 2022, which will result in higher trending goods inflation and production hiccups dampening the recovery in production.”

        https://think.ing.com/articles/supply-chain-frictions-and-input-shortages-when-will-they-abate/

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          I would guess a lot longer than 2022.

      • ssincoski
        ssincoski says:

        I was reading an article about the wait time for purchasing a new car in Poland. 6 months for less popular models, 18 months or more for the in-demand models.

        Sure hope my 1990 and 1994 Volvo 940’s hang on for a few more years (and very happy my wife is not the type that will only be seen in the latest BMW/Audi. She loves that 1990 Volvo).

        • worldofhanumanotg
          worldofhanumanotg says:

          Good for you, and you are correct.
          Ten yrs ago new econoboxes started bellow EUR6.5k now it’s almost double that price range (~10k).. well with a bit more of standard options added on board, but don’t care for that..
          And if you can afford real sized carz the Koreans are still somewhat a bargain.. most notably that “unloved” SsangY thing..

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        If there are fewer semiconductor chips, the auto makers only make high priced vehicles and sell them at high prices.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      It seems like there is no end to the shortages.

      China says its no-COVID plan works, but it isn’t working. China basically doesn’t have enough fuel.

  5. If there was an award for those doing their bit towards getting the masses to take the bioweapon, today it would go the Sunday People [UK]. I saw this front page headline whilst shopping in a supermarket:
    “Why Every Mum Should Get Jab”

    The only place I can find a shot of the front page is the BBC, second one down:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-59194885

    If the font looks extra large that is because it is. I read this from at least 10 m away.

    The article the headline refers to is a mother who died giving birth to her fifth child, allegedly from CV19. Never let a genuine tragedy go to waste.
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/miracle-baby-never-know-tragic-25397900

    ‘…Today Saiqa’s brother begs mums-to-be: “For God’s sake, get the vaccine.” ‘

  6. Sam says:

    If this really was a plan demic do you think they would let a webpage like this survive? If they had that much power they would have enough to destroy this one. I think its wishful thinking on the part of feast Ed and Co. that being said I don’t trust the vac. After I had Covid I felt ten times stronger and faster. With much more energy….put that in your pipe

    • Malcopian says:

      “If this really was a plan demic do you think they would let a webpage like this survive?”

      Yes, so that they can point to it as c-the ories. They know the vast majority will believe MSM propaganda.

      “After I had Covid I felt ten times stronger and faster”

      TEN times? Now THAT is what I call propaganda.

      Having and recovering from COVID took 3½ weeks for me. I lost a stone in weight and have managed to keep most of it off. The weight loss has certainly made me feel fitter – nothing else, apart from eating sensibly and taking more exercise.

    • We in the UK may be about to lose access to OFW.

      An online news team called ‘UK Column News’, headed by a retired Navy officer, started I think about 15-20 years ago. The officer was fed up with the clap trap that was being reported by the MSM, and in particular the BBC, during the invasion of Iraq in 2003 (if I remember correctly), and decided to do something about it. Started UK Column News.

      UK Column News, like OFW, remained ‘under the radar’ because it does not have a huge following, in the millions. In April this year, they interviewed the wife and grown-up daughter of a chap who died from CV19. The doctors bent over backwards to say it wasn’t CV19, and the mother / daughter went to great lengths to record the death on the [UK] Yellow Card system themselves. I will try and find the link to the interview.

      The website The Conservative Woman then picked up on the interview, resulting in the video going viral and being watched by many a conservative member, who then complained to their MPs (member of parliament, equivalent to a congress wo/man).
      The government tried to have UK Column News shut down immediately, but that did not work. There was a post about that as well, I will try and find that too.

      In the meantime, the UK government settled for legislation that will allow the authorities to shut down any online news site deemed to be broadcasting CV19 disinformation. I have not kept up with how that is going, I don’t think it is law yet, but if it is passed, UK Column News will be toast, and we in the UK will probably lose access to OFW.

      What do you think of that?

      • Kowalainen says:

        Time for VPN? If it gets really bad, just GTFO.

      • Malcopian says:

        “What do you think of that?”

        Scary as hell. That is how governments destroy democracy, with emergency laws and censorship.

        AH came to power in Germany on January 30 1933. On 27 February 1933, the Reichstag burnt down. AH then ruled by emergency decree. The last democratic party dissolved itself on 5 July. AH had turned Germany into a dictatorship in less than 6 months.

      • drb753
        drb says:

        if access is important to you, get a VPN in another country. But that of course is only a temporary patch. I can’t access bitchute directly from Russia for example.

      • worldofhanumanotg
        worldofhanumanotg says:

        Minority> we have been on “long emergency” for past two decades already, the non visible cage / dungeon was pretty comfortable so far. This will have to change because of PO/Surplus tentacles encroaching hard into the (semi)core areas as well eventually. So, in retrospect be thankful the overlords gave you (us) ~nice two decades extra* (and some bonus perhaps till ~mid 2020s or even slightly beyond?)..

        __
        * at the expense of smoldering ME and dystopian China factory..

    • ssincoski
      ssincoski says:

      It is just better to let the rabble vent on-line at web-sites that few read. Keeps them off the streets.

      • worldofhanumanotg
        worldofhanumanotg says:

        +++

        Plus it must be a great read for them in terms what and how detailed depth has been already deciphered by the “diy analyst crowd”..

      • Sam says:

        Yes maybe you are right ssincoski by restricting access to the site it might give more credence to said site….I do like the approach that Gammon does and calls it the CERVZA sickness. I am particularly sensitive to people who say those that have had covid are soon going to get cancer and die…..A) Because I have had it and feel fine —– better, in fact than before.
        B) Because it is a scare tactic used to make people get the lv##…..and it allows them to justify their agenda
        C) Because you all will get this virus eventually and there is no reason to be scared of the boogy man….

  7. “Fed rate points to central banks’ stimulus dilemma.

    “The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its benchmark interest rate near zero… Jerome Powell said the US central bank is nowhere near considering a rate hike… Central banks across the world are trying hard to support economic recovery. However, there are indications that inflation is headed north.”

    https://gulfnews.com/opinion/editorials/fed-rate-points-to-central-banks-stimulus-dilemma-1.83497094

    • “What have low interest rates done for Britain? Depressingly little…

      “It is a depressing thought that the stimulus provided by the Bank of England since late 2008 has done far more to boost house prices than it has to boost productive investment.”

      https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/nov/07/what-have-low-interest-rates-done-for-britain-depressingly-little-bank-of-england

      • “Losing faith in our central bank [NZ]…

        “It is the final option that should have our political class paying attention. “A calamitous global asset market collapse occurs. It is much worse that the GFC. Investors panic, liquidity dries up… Economic activity implodes… Unprecedented economic distress and unemployment, in living memory, would spark public anger and unrest.””

        https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300446889/losing-faith-in-our-central-bank

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          According to the article:

          In the late 1980s and early 1990s, most OECD nations gave their central banks a degree of independence and autonomy. This was to help assure the financial community that the monetary authorities would be focused on fighting inflation; and nothing else. . .

          I lost faith in our central bank when Orr and Robertson agreed to add “maximum sustainable employment” to the banks’ objectives. Thankfully for Orr, I was, and remain, as relevant a degree in art history.

          However, if organisations like the NZ Initiative are beginning to question the bank, then we are seeing the start of a fresh contagion. One that we have no vaccine for.

      • Malcopian says:

        “the stimulus provided by the Bank of England since late 2008 has done far more to boost house prices than it has to boost productive investment.”

        Agreed. My flat / apartment in south London that I bought 30 years ago is worth around 5 times what I paid for it, in pound terms (not inflation-adjusted). Ridiculous! And I can’t release that profit, unless I move back up North, where property is cheaper. In such a case, my extra wealth is merely notional. Only those people who inherit their dead relatives property will seen any gain.

      • Hubbs says:

        Low interest rates go hand-in-hand with fiat currency printing in a central bank pincer. This one-two punch facilitates wealth transfer and concentration into the coiffures of the oligarchs. They enjoy cheap credit to out compete and then buy up the middle class wreckage as savers and mom and pop businesses are destroyed.

        • worldofhanumanotg
          worldofhanumanotg says:

          Yep, rehashed variant on the classic text book Cantillion(-aire) effect. The end is likely nigh when they now started moving into farmland, micro NPPs, private armies, etc..

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        The low interest rates do not stimulate the production of more fossil fuels at low price, because such fossil fuels drive producers out of business. They just produce asset inflation.

  8. Sam says:

    Not sure your statistical analysis is right 🥸

  9. “Wirral Council [UK] may have to sell libraries, leisure centres, town halls and more in order to escape the massive money problems laid bare in an independent report.

    “The local authority requested exceptional financial support of more than £10m from the government in order to try to balance its budget, which has led to an independent inspection of the teetering local authority.”

    https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/how-wirral-council-fell-financial-22078213

    • “The leader of Slough Borough Council [UK] says he did not know it would have to sell hundreds of millions of pounds worth of properties when he went into last May’s election.

      “The cash-strapped council, which was forced to declare effectively bankruptcy earlier this year, will have to sell up to £600m of its assets to plug financial holes in its budget and reduce its gargantuan borrowing levels.”

      https://www.getreading.co.uk/news/reading-berkshire-news/slough-council-boss-says-didnt-22079915

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        I am not sure I entirely agree. It is the overall delivered EROEI for all fuels combined that matters. The EROEI of renewables is calculated incorrectly, making them look far more helpful than they really.

        The big issue is that total energy per capita. Thus, the required EROEI depends on population. The higher the population, the higher the required EROEI. An EROEI table for all population levels doesn’t make sense.

        Transportation is a big deal. It is more than roads; it includes pipelines and the very energy intensive ships for LNG.

        An important function is cooking food. This requires energy.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Balanced budgets get to be more and more difficult.

  10. Malcopian says:

    Moon landing: China scientists baffled as new lunar samples don’t match Apollo 11’s

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1515099/moon-landing-china-lunar-rock-samples-apollo-11-change-5

  11. Yoshua says:

    No one knows what kind of energy is used create the Havana Syndrome. They suspect that microwaves are used to cook a small part of the brain…deep inside the brain without damaging surrounding neurones. No knows how this is even possible.

    • drb753
      drb says:

      It would have to be a Maser (Microwave version of laser), tuned to a frequency that excites a given important organic molecule (important to brain metabolism). Then the excited molecule has a different chemistry than the ground state one. This is similar to the 5G effect on hemoglobin, but don’t ask me to find where I read this over a year ago.

  12. Yoshua says:

    The spike protein

    “There’s also a novel gene named CaORF15, which encodes a protein which has never been seen before other than in RaTG13 , which is a consensus sequence with no natural providence either”
    “This protein appears to interfere with the process of interferon accumulating which is necessary for a full immune response by using the STING pathway, a fundamental part of our immune defense system meant to neutralize DNA-based pathogens and tumors” Dan Sirotkin

    How do you design a gene sequences that never existed in nature and give it life? The is beyond gene splicing. Never heard about it before.

  13. CTG says:

    Guys…. did anyone come across anymore information on blood transfusions. I posted here a few months ago that Red Cross has taken out one section on convalescence blood transfusion not allowed for those who are vaccinated. Any other interesting stories?

    In my country Malaysia, right now, if someone dies from COVID (or even with COVID), it is very opaque. No relatives are allowed to be near the body, no one can visit the patient before he pass away. They will cremate the body and hand you the ashes. This type of procedure is so open to abuse and cover up. Anyone can die from anything and can be classified as “death from COVID” and no post mortem will be carried out (perhaps, no one can be sure if it is really carried out).

    So, if there are serious issues like blood transfusion being rejected, then no one knows.

    by the way… anyone who here who has knowledge on blood transfusion ? I think it is not possible to filter out the spike proteins or any foreign materials (perhaps from the vaccine) in the blood. Right?

  14. Malcopian says:

    Calls for Jacob Rees-Mogg to resign over Paterson vote

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-votes-news-owen-paterson-b1953036.html

    ===

    Rees-Mogg got all his money from daddy, and now supports a disgusting sort of hyena capitalism. He is a catholic with 6 children – he supports the Church of Rome but hates the Treaty of Rome (EU). He affects a ridiculous upper-middle class drawl, which is way out of date and grates on me horribly. Good riddance to him, I say.

    • The classes detest each other in Britain. The upper classes see the lower as ‘sc/m’ and never mix with them, and the lower see the upper as ‘b/stards’. It is like everyone is either a ‘b/stard’ or ‘sc/m’ in Britain – the place is insane.

  15. Fast Eddy says:

    On Covid vaccines, diabetic ketoacidosis, and the death of Dan Kaminsky
    When people die, refusing to ask hard questions about what might have killed them is not heroic. It’s the opposite.

    Dan Kaminsky died in San Francisco at the age of 42 on April 23, 2021.

    He a computer security expert, well-known in that tight-knit community, with almost 100,000 followers on Twitter.

    He was also a strong supporter of mRNA Covid vaccinations. On April 16, he tweeted that they were “astoundingly clever.” And on April 12, he proudly reported that he had been “vaxxed!”

    Eleven days later he was dead.

    https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/on-covid-vaccines-diabetic-ketoacidosis

    https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1bb31428-33a3-495b-a085-0b0efbde0e1e_3996x1507.jpeg

    • Tim Groves says:

      On a personal level, the bleeding heart goody goody who lives in an attic in my psyche feels sad about all the death and destruction these jabs are causing. But given the misery they are spreading throughout the world, I freely admit that I love it when any chauvinistic proponent of the clot shot gets hoisted by his own petard.

      Didn’t anyone bother to warn him that diabetics are the people most at risk of dying of spike fever? Or was he just too full of himself to listen?

      “Again, a smooth, efficient, well-oiled operation. So proud of San Francisco and Kaiser Permanente for executing like total bosses.”
      —Dan Kamininski

      And ironically, just eleven days later, Dan was effectively executed by lethal injection so smoothly and efficiently that gang bosses everywhere must be lived with envy.

      I say, give the man a Darwin Award! What do you say Duncan?

  16. Yoshua says:

    The Havana Syndrome is caused by an energy weapon that damages a particular part of the brain. It has been deployed against US diplomats and spooks around the world…even in Washington.

    The US and its intelligence community thinks that Russia is behind the attacks. Russia doesn’t have this kind of sophisticated weapons…the US doesn’t have it either… and the US is technologically the most advanced nation in the world.

    The technology resembles of the technology used to create crop circles…where energy is used to just bend the straw nods to lay the crops in complex patterns.

    • Bei Dawei says:

      Okay, I’ll bite: what kind of energy is it?

    • worldofhanumanotg
      worldofhanumanotg says:

      US is NOT the most technologically advanced nation in the world, maybe true in some particular domains, besides the application is what matters after-all. No truly large fast rail network, health care is available haphazardly, space cargo launches had to be revitalized by a private company of int talent&money, after decades of stagnation, the high tech sector skunk work labs which prototype volume production offloaded to Asia are now often lagging in technology race (vs SKorean/Chinese electronic industries – former manuf partners only).. etc..

      Yes, there are some interesting unique “domestic” breakthroughs though, e.g. the novel MIT “10x gain” magnet for fusion reactors to be deployed on demo site* by ~2025.. and few other things..

      __
      * while already industrial sized breeders (different tech) exist in other countries..

  17. Lidia17 says:

    Here’s another report from someone who works in the mortuary trade:

    Funeral Director: I just see the dead babies in the fridges (8+ min.)
    https://odysee.com/@ResistanceGB:f/funeral-director-babies:c

    • drb753
      drb says:

      What are the babies dying of?

    • Replenish says:

      Early on in the pandemic, the York County and Dauphin County (Harrisburg, PA) Coroners were both quoted on local MSM about the State superseding their official duties and coding deaths as Covid deaths without an examination. The Dauphin County coroner is pretty sharp, consevative and has a tv series pilot in the works for A&E network. His wife is Latinx and he is broadly involved in civic organizations. He buried both of my grandparents and I trust his judgement that unusual is happening.

  18. I’m copying this from the previous page, because it shows how the vaccines are such a “safe bet” (sarc sarc sarc).

    “In Pfizer’s 6 month clinical trial in adults — there was 1 covid death out of 22,000 in the vaccine (“treatment”) group and 2 Covid deaths out of 22,000 in the placebo group (see Table s4). So NNTV = 22,000. The catch is there were 5 heart attack deaths in the vaccine group and only 1 in placebo group. So for every 1 life saved from Covid, the Pfizer vaccine kills 4 from heart attacks. All cause mortality in the 6 month study was 20 in vaccine group and 14 in placebo group. So a 42% all cause mortality increase among the vaccinated”

  19. Lidia17 says:

    South African Physician Dr. Shankara Chetty Talks about “The Bigger Plan”
    https://www.bitchute.com/video/IQoUmvcoiStX/

    about 11 min.
    Discusses the spike protein toxicity

    “This plan is to make sure that we can control and kill off a large proportion of our population without anyone suspecting that we were poisoned “

  20. Barbados becomes a republic on Nov. 30. Jamaica is set to be next. Congratulations!

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/21/barbados-elects-first-president-as-island-drops-queen-as-head-of-state

    > Barbados elects first president as it prepares to drop Queen as head of state

    Barbados has elected its first president with just weeks to go until the Caribbean island becomes a republic and ceases to recognise Queen Elizabeth as its head of state.

    The island’s governor general, Dame Sandra Mason, was elected almost unanimously by the former British colony’s parliament on Wednesday, with only one member declining to vote.

    Mason, a 72-year-old judge and former ambassador, will be sworn in on 30 November, the 55th anniversary of her country’s independence from Britain in 1966.

    Barbados announced its decision to part company with the monarchy in September 2020 amid an intensifying global debate on the malign legacy of colonialism and racial injustice.

    Speaking at the time, Mason argued that the time had come for Barbados “to fully leave our colonial past behind”. “Barbadians want a Barbadian head of state. This is the ultimate statement of confidence in who we are and what we are capable of achieving,” she said, reading comments prepared by the prime minister.

    Barbados is not the first Caribbean country to forsake the Queen. Guyana did so in 1970, four years after gaining independence from Britain, and was followed by Trinidad and Tobago in 1976 and, two years later, Dominica. Barbados may also not be the last. Its decision to become a republic has amplified a long-running debate in Jamaica over whether it should also turn away from the monarchy.

  21. Rodster says:

    Now before anyone dismisses what this woman is saying. Just an FYI, she used to work for Pfizer.

    “FDA Documents Show CV19 Vax Produces a Bioweapon – Karen Kingston”

    https://usawatchdog.com/fda-documents-show-cv19-vax-produces-a-bioweapon-karen-kingston/

  22. Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
    Ed says:

    The Free States of America will need big macs. Elon has a constellation of satellites that could within five minutes bring to bear big macs on the houses of the top 32 global oligarchs and the capital cities of say 32 nation should they be hostile to the Free States.

  23. Student says:

    US vacc/ne mandates are similar to what has been decided and it has taken place in Italy.
    The difference is that in US the gov£rnm£nt will rely on Company with 100 or more workers to apply this mandate, while in Italy is mandatory also for little business.
    Maybe the intention is to go by steps, because gov£rnm£nt probably has some concerns that, including also little business, a national reaction too strong and too fast could come out from that.
    But I think that when a good portion of workers will be reached, also little business will be involved or maybe simply ‘naturally’ will fall in it.
    Another point is that in case of n0 -vacc/nat/0n, only a test is required once a week, while in Italy it is necessary a test every 48 hours.
    That is another example that the gov£rnm£nt has probably some concerns that a reaction too strong and too fast could come out in case of more stringent requests about tests.
    In fact in Italy reactions and protests are coming out in the streets, but these protests are easily controlled by P 0 l/c£ , maybe it would be different there.
    What seems to have no sense is that with a Corona-v/rus in circulation, the vacc/nat/ons will be made in December, January, or even later, with obsolete vacc/n£s in relation to what will be a mutated virus.
    What is strange is in fact that nobody is talking about a change of the formulation, which will be scientifically obvious.
    Therefore, it is clear that this plan has, let’s say ‘mainly’, another objective.
    As already anticipated here by some posts, maybe the objective is to slow the speed of the economy and – at the same time – insert people in a new system of control and in a new system made to avoid hospital congestions (simultaneously reducing hospitals capacity).
    Additionally, other considerations can remain valid, actually this plan allows to reach different objectives, all interesting.
    It seems that this new system must become a new behavior to adapt with, like it or not.
    Unless something unexpected will happen.

    this is the news I refer to: https://www.npr.org/2021/11/04/1048939858/osha-biden-vaccine-mandate-employers-100-workers?t=1636239851306

  24. kschleunes
    Kurt says:

    Hey! BAU tonight baby! Lamb chops, Cabernet, followed by a wonderful dessert. Y’all keep doom typing. 2 more years of typing at least.

  25. Pingback: Energy Is The Currency Of Life – Money Should Be Based On It – Javier Lopez – Kolozeg.Org

  26. Fast Eddy says:

    URGENT: The 5th Circuit (Texas) has issued an emergency stay of Biden’s vaccine mandate
    Meanwhile the Department of Transportation says it won’t apply to truckers…

    The mandate is coming apart at the seams. The trucker exemption is particularly absurd – is there a more obvious vector for disease transmission than a long-haul trucker? If you are working ALONE AT HOME the mandate applies, but truckers are exempt. (NOTE: See update at end.)

    Because science, or maybe because even the bright boys have realized the supply chain will collapse if they push this nonsense too hard.

    I predict that by this time next year the vaccine mandates will seem as absurd and political as school closures do right now. Remember how the unions and the media told us in 2020 that the coffins would be stacked high outside Little Johnny’s Elementary if the teachers had to go back? They would like to make that little episode disappear.

    But it won’t. And this fall’s insanity won’t either.

    NOTE: As readers have pointed out, the new OSHA mandate does exempt home workers. However, most large employers are ALSO covered by federal contracting rules mandating vaccines – this is why they required shots even before OSHA’s rule last week – and they have generally insisted that those rules apply to all employees, even those who work remotely. I should have been clearer about this distinction in the original story.)

    https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/urgent-the-5th-circuit-texas-has

  27. Fast Eddy says:

    The Green Bay Packers’ Aaron Rodgers tested positive for Covid and revealed to the world he was unvaccinated this week, despite previously leading on that he had been immunized.

    Rodgers, who appeared on the Pat McAfee show to talk about his decision to not get vaccinated, said he was already feeling better and that he was following the same path for treatment that got Joe Rogan better within days: monoclonal antibodies, vitamins and ivermectin.

    “I realize I’m in the crosshairs of the woke mob right now so before my final nail gets put in my cancel culture casket, I’d like to set the record straight on so many of the blatant lies out there,” he says at the onset of defending himself.

    Rodgers started the interview by saying that right off the bat, after speaking to experts, he knew two vaccines were going to be off the table for him since he’s allergic to an ingredient in the mRNA vaccines.

    “Much like the study I put into hosting Jeopardy, I met with a lot of people to get the most information about all the vaccines,” Rodgers told Pat McAfee.

    From there he goes on to explain that the JNJ vaccine wound up in the news for clotting issues around the time he would have needed to make the decision to get vaccinated, so he didn’t take it. He also notes that he followed protocol for unvaccinated players and tested every single day.

    In the interview, Rodgers says he now “feels great” after testing positive for Covid.

    He also brought up some great common sense points, like asking:

    “If the vaccine is so great, why are so many vaccinated people getting sick?” and “If it is so safe, why to the manufacturers need legal immunity?”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/health-should-not-be-political-packers-aaron-rodgers-deflects-hysteria-about-being

    I can’t imagine this interview will get play on CNN…

    • Yahoo Sports
      Wisconsin health care organization cuts ties with Aaron Rodgers after COVID-19 vaccine comments
      Chris Cwik

      Chris Cwik
      Sat, November 6, 2021, 3:01 PM
      Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is dealing with the fallout after his comments on the COVID-19 vaccines during a Friday appearance on “The Pat McAfee Show.” Prevea Health — a Wisconsin-based health care organization — cut ties with Rodgers a day after that interview.

      claimed he was allergic to something in both mRNA (Pfizer and Moderna) vaccines and said he didn’t want to take the Johnson & Johnson vaccine after it was pulled from the market due to side effects. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine was cleared to return to the market shortly after, though with a warning that it could cause blood clotting.

      Instead, Rodgers underwent alternative medical treatments. He didn’t go into specific detail regarding those treatments, though did mention taking ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine. The FDA has not approved either drug to treat COVID-19.

      Rodgers made additional comments regarding both the vaccine and the NFL’s COVID-19 protocols, some of which were disputed by the league.

      Prevea Health is among the first organization to drop Rodgers following his comments. Rodgers has a number of endorsement deals, the biggest of which includes television and print ads with State Farm.

      When asked about State Farm’s relationship with Rodgers following his comments during McAfee’s show, the company told Yahoo Sports’ Nick Bromberg, “It would be inappropriate for us to comment on Aaron’s vaccination status.”

      Haven’t seen one pro Rogers story yet in theMsm

      • Tim Groves says:

        Aaron is a smart guy, and with his wealth currently estimated at around US$120 million, he’s probably rich enough not to need to endorsement deals. It is much better to be dropped by Prevea Health or even by State Farm than to drop dead following a jab. And it will better for him in the long run to end up on the right side of history and be known for being skeptical of the current clot shot cum death jabs than for promoting them.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          According to Spotrac, Rodgers has managed to earn as much as 220 million dollars throughout his career as a professional NFL player, with Forbes estimating his income from endorsements to be nine million dollars per year.

          He can live without the endorsements

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Aaron Rodgers signed a 4 year, $134,000,000 contract with the Green Bay Packers, including a $57,500,000 signing bonus, $98,700,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $33,500,000. In 2021, Rodgers will earn a base salary of $1,100,000, a signing bonus of $14,464,706 and a roster bonus of $6,800,000, while carrying a cap hit of $27,073,568 and a dead cap value of $53,920,704.

        Aaron says ‘suck my d789’ I have f789 you money…

        Wait till he appears on Rogan’s podcast

  28. U.S. federal appeals court freezes Biden’s vaccine rule for companies

    WASHINGTON, Nov 6 (Reuters) – A U.S. federal appeals court issued a stay Saturday freezing the Biden administration’s efforts to require workers at U.S. companies with at least 100 employees be vaccinated against COVID-19 or be tested weekly, citing “grave statutory and constitutional” issues with the rule.

    The ruling from the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit comes after numerous Republican-led states filed legal challenges against the new rule, which is set to take effect on Jan 4.

    In a statement, Solicitor of Labor Seema Nanda said the Labor Department was “confident in its legal authority” to issue the rule, which will be enforced by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA).

    “The Occupational Safety and Health Act explicitly gives OSHA the authority to act quickly in an emergency where the agency finds that workers are subjected to a grave danger and a new standard is necessary to protect them,” she said. “We are fully prepared to defend this standard in court.”

    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-federal-appeals-court-issues-stay-bidens-vaccine-rule-us-companies-2021-11-06/

    Haha! Good luck with that “legal authority,” Labor Department. This is going to get interesting.

    • Tim Groves says:

      I’m glad to see some states and some judges stepping up to the plate to defend Constitutional freedoms from Government overreach—as what happens in the US today often happens later elsewhere. Remember rock ‘n’ roll, hamburgers and skateboards!?

      How this will play out I have no idea though. Recent decisions by the Supremes have not been very encouraging for us freedom-livin’ fundamental human rights advocatin’ old stick-in-the-muds. It’s time they appointed Diana Ross to the top bench.

  29. hillcountry – retired electronics manufacturing engineer
    hillcountry says:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC8546144/

    Comprehensive investigations revealed consistent pathophysiological alterations after vaccination with COVID-19 vaccines.

    “Altogether, our study recommends additional caution when vaccinating people with pre-existing clinical conditions, including diabetes, electrolyte imbalances, renal dysfunction, and coagulation disorders.”

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Of course, people with these conditions are at risk of dying of COVID, to begin with. It sounds like the same people are more subject to certain kinds of side effects from the vaccine. This creates a problem, since these are some of the unhealthy people who, in some sense, need vaccine most.

    • Lidia17 says:

      I don’t understand the language of “caution” here (“additional”! caution.. as if they were already using any degree of caution).

      The injections are pretty much binary… it’s not like you or your PCP have control over the dosage or duration of treatment. Where is the “cautious” path if not the “don’t put this stuff in your body” path?

      • Tim Groves says:

        Oh, well spotted.

        It’s code for, “we still recommend jabbing them, but if something goes badly wrong we need at least a fig-leaf of “we advised additional caution” to provide us with plausible deniability.

  30. Yoshua says:

    It wasn’t a good idea to use the spike protein…the bioweapon…as a vaccine?

    The spike protein hijacks the DNA repair machinery and this blocks the immune systems adaptivity.
    The vaccine seems to do the same…which has reduced the infected and vaccinated ability to defend them selves against other pathogens.

    From a peer reviewed paper:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FDXoPy1XoAIwRhD?format=png&name=900×900

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Do you have the academic paper this is from? It sound like one that we have been looking at recently.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I think it is from this paper:

      https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/13/10/2056/htm

  31. Yoshua says:

    “CCP had tremendous incentive to find an intermediate host. We know they poured tons of resources into the effort, testing tens of thousands of animals (they no doubt also tried to fabricate a false trail leading to an animal). And yet they came up with nothing.”

    The Chinese are telling the truth. It didn’t leak from the Wuhan lab… otherwise they would have ‘foynd’ an intermediate host. The spike is too sophisticated and strange for them…for any lab in the world…and it’s not natural.

  32. Wow. Just when I think the scamdemic couldn’t get any more ridiculous…

    The people facilitating this scam have no principles and no shame. Are we to believe the mayor is resorting to this latest tactic because of a deeply held concern for the safety of New York’s children? He cares that much about the children’s health but cares not when it comes to destroying the livelihoods of their vaxx refusenik parents who feed, clothe and shelter them?

  33. Special Message from USFF Leadership

    For several weeks we have done our best to send you timely, pertinent updates every Friday about what is going on inside USFF and what has happened during the previous week. Our intention this week is to do the same; however, we are currently finalizing the details surrounding a major announcement on the legal front with our lawyers. With this in mind, this week’s update is brief.

    Shortly we will be filing suit in the State of Florida to fight for your right of bodily autonomy, medical freedom, and against the coercion surrounding the medical mandates. We want to give you all the details as they happen, but until the ink on the paperwork dries we need to keep these details close to the vest.

    Please be assured that as soon as we are able to release details, we will.

    To this end, if you are aircrew, look for another email coming your way by the end of the weekend. This will be in regards to USFF and HFDF looking for those willing to be named as plaintiffs in the lawsuit. Plaintiffs will be those named on the suit and may be called to testify. Further details will outlined in that email. Those USFF members who have donated will also be covered by the suit, though not required to testify.

    If you are in other industries or have joined USFF as a passenger, additional specific information will be coming your way shortly as well. This may come some as soon as next week as details continue to evolve.

    Thank you for your understanding on this matter and thank you for your continued strength and support of each other.

    US Freedom Flyers
    NO Mandates! Not Now, Not Ever!
    We Call THE SHOTS, Not Them!

    Urgent: Plaintiffs Are Needed

    November 5, 2021

    As previously mentioned, now that we are filing our suit in the State of Florida, we are in need of airline employees to be named a plaintiffs for the case. We have established a secure form with the help of HFDF for those interested in being considered to be named as plaintiff on the suit.

    Please click here for further details and to fill out the questionnaire.

  34. “Persistent shortages are stunting German economic growth. [Worth remembering that German growth was already negligible going into the pandemic].

    “Surveys and data released this week indicate that the ongoing crunch in the supply chain is the main factor slowing Germany’s manufacturing powerhouse, causing the government to scale back its forecast for economic growth for 2021.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/world/europe/shortages-german-economic-growth.html

    • “Germany will lose its grip on the EU if its economy gets much weaker.

      “Germany is underperforming against the Mediterranean economies, giving rise to a potential shift in the eurozone’s power dynamic… Germany won’t be preaching austerity anymore, and even if it does no one will be listening, and that will set the path for bigger government and more spending.”

      https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/11/06/germany-will-lose-grip-eu-economy-gets-much-weaker/

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Underperforming relative to Mediterranean economies! That doesn’t sound good at all.

      • worldofhanumanotg
        worldofhanumanotg says:

        Indeed, It’s getting interesting because the German political parties preaching ~austerity (or factions within these parties) are evidently loosing the edge.

        On the other hand it’s all connected, so should the US balkanize inward in the mid/late 2020s and beyond for real, i.e. focusing on ~regional dominion only, the int elites will need re-balance asap to another strong bolthole, so in this sense jeopardizing EUR status / weight vs Asians+ would not be welcomed.. And France is on way faster down sloping escalator vs Germany, perhaps they can at best get few more years with that Z persona hoisted into presidency, which seems to be another establishment fake “rebel” ala Donald.

    • Labour shortages also in Germany Plc.

      https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-workforce-in-desperate-need-of-skilled-immigrants-warns-labor-agency/a-58974377

      > Germany’s workforce in desperate need of skilled immigrants, warns labor agency

      Europe’s largest economy has an aging population and low birth rates, and the federal labor agency says Germany must attract at least 400,000 skilled immigrants annually to keep up with demand.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Needs 400,000 skilled immigrants per year. Germany needs to treat its immigrants very well, if it is to find this many, especially skilled immigrants. Unskilled immigrants from Africa are probably readily available.

        • Germans had better get virtuous if they are maintain their economy.

          It very much ‘gels with’ my present reading. Nietzsche is talking about the origins of morality in immorality (advantage) and the immoral means (force) that ‘virtue’ employs.

          It is no different at root from the forced ‘land clearances’ into the factories in early modern Britain. Whatever ‘virtues’ suit the power of the dominant class, be it civility, war or starvation.

          One could say that it is the dissipative/ power structure ‘doing its thing’ and creating shifting ‘virtues’ according to its present needs. It is what it is.

          > “Interestedness” with reference to communal morality. (Artifice: to transform the great passions of lust for power and possessions into protectors of virtue). To what extent all kinds of businessmen and the avaricious, all who have to give and claim credit, find it necessary to become more and more alike in character and in conception of value: world trade and exchange of every kind extorts and, as it were, buys virtue. The same applies to the state and to every kind of rule by means of officials and soldiers; likewise science, in order to work in security and with economy of its forces. Likewise the priesthood. Here, therefore, a communal morality is enforced because it procures an advantage; and to make it victorious, war and force are practiced against immorality – with what “right”? With no right whatever: but in accordance with the instinct for self-preservation. These same classes make use of immorality when it serves their purpose. – TWTP 315

        • Jimothy says:

          It’s strange because all these countries (Canada, Germany, Italy, etc) talk about how they desperately need skilled immigrants, and they even list specifics, yet it is still incredibly difficult to immigrate. I know firsthand. I not only farm but also have done translation and have the education for it.

          I looked into leaving a few years ago but the fees, paperwork, and sketchy naturalization/landholding laws turned me away. Only the most desperate or very most privileged would ever migrate in this day and age (or perhaps any)

      • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
        Ed says:

        I am available for Germany. Skilled graduate degree in physics from Ivy League University. 30 year experience in the semiconductor industry.

        My requirements no vax, free movement in Germany stores, venues, travel.

  35. “The British government has approached Qatar to ask if the Gulf state could become a “supplier of last resort” amid gas shortages in Europe which have led to record prices, according to a report…

    “Qatar …re-routed four large tankers to the UK over the past two weeks, with the decision reportedly taking place after Boris Johnson asked Qatari emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani for help.”

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/energy-crisis-qatar-gas-supplies-b1952679.html

    • “Zombie Britain desperately needs a way out of this dangerous debt bubble.

      “Authorities must end their cowardice put a stop to this endless era of ultra-low interest rates.” [The Telegraph advocating economic hara-kiri, basically.]

      https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/11/05/zombie-britain-desperately-needs-way-dangerous-debt-bubble/

        • If the supermarkets run out of frozen chips (fries) then there really will be some serious disgruntlement. Typically about half of freezer sections in Britain are dozens of varieties of chips. That really would upset the masses (no pun intended). ‘What, no f chips now!’

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Solvent used in making make-up and potato chips are missing.

      • And you think the status quo is not economic hara kiri?
        Wow. The hara kiri already happened, when Britain shipped out its industrial base.

        Also, Canada just ended its QE, same with the Bank of Japan. Heck the Russian central bank hiked interest rates just a couple of weeks ago.

        • I disagree both with the article’s premise that there even is a way out of this dangerous debt bubble, MonkeyBusiness, and its conclusion that it would be somehow courageous to precipitate “a day of reckoning”.

          And, yes, I think that letting more than one-fifth of UK companies go to the wall because they are “zombies” in the hope that workers and capital can then be deployed more productively would constitute economic hara-kiri in the context of the UK’s debt and energy predicaments.

          The status quo is economic hara-kiri in the broad sense that it contains the seeds of its own destruction but I would prefer that we did not actually hasten the moment of demise.

          • Of course there isn’t a safe way out of this. But the older generation shouldn’t delay the reckoning for its own benefit and shove this mess to the next generation. Isn’t that the attitude that brought everyone to this point?

            • I’m not clear what you’re advocating, MonkeyBusiness. If there isn’t a safe exit then delaying financial Armageddon is surely in everyone’s best interests?

            • When the Germans and the Japanese lost the war, it was armageddon for them too, and yet within a generation they managed to recover. The older generator got wiped out, but that’s their fault. I am advocating the same. And no, it’s not in everyone’s best interests that the current generation remains solvent. Anyway it does not matter what you say, generational war is coming because why should the next generation be burdened with the debts of the previous generation? Looking forward to it.

            • the germans and japanese ‘recovered’ because the Americans re-primed their industrial pumps

              they did this because it was in their commercial interests to do so, rather than leave a pile of war wreckage and a people who would have likely embraced the Russians

            • Kowalainen says:

              Did I get this correctly? You want to wipe the slate clean so that you can continue the process afresh?

              Why not wipe the slate clean every second, then we all can live like Billy G and Leo, et. al.?

              However, I’m not sure the reality of things will yield to your hopes and dreams.

              The only “quick” fix here is to reduce the amount of people like you (and me). Although, I’m likely a better worst case scenario than you. Chucking in the oats and turning the cranks while working in tech and having zero debt.

              What’s your excuse? Your will to power perhaps? Understand how little that means in the grand scheme of things. Check the fossil record for extinct ‘will to power’ species of hominids (and others as well), then tell me your conclusion.

              Mirror, do you see my point?

              🤣👍👍

          • Alan Kirk says:

            I like the idea of letting 10% of the zombies go under. If only the government kept their hands off the scales and stopped picking winners and losers. There is so much capital sloshing around in the system that freeing up some to flow towards new innovative solutions makes a ton of sense.

          • In principle, I like the idea of a more streamlined, more productive UK economy, too. I do not believe that the “choking off of cheap credit” would actually have this effect though.

            I think it is too weak to survive such a bracing reconfiguration without coming badly unstuck.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            CEP is the only way out.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Oats and bicycles would work too, unfortunately it suffers from severe popularity issues.

              Getting vaxxed and continuing BAU is “better” in all the metrics that is important to the Rapacious Primate psyche.

              I’m afraid you’re right.

          • Xabier says:

            Might as well let the lute and harp play, the singer warble and the wine flow if a nasty end is imminent and unavoidable……..

            We should put aside the comfort-blanket delusion that true prosperity can be regained by sacrifice, innovation and hard decisions.

            We have sown, and we shall weep.

            ‘For now the Time of Gifts has gone….. and here is bare earth.’ Louis MacNeice.

            (Who, appropriately, drank himself to death like a true Celt.)

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I can see that bribery will play a greater role in the future in getting adequate energy supplies.

      • Haven’t we been bribing the Arab states for some time now? The more pertinent question is what would serve as an acceptable bribe in the future? Currency? Doubt it. Gold? Bitcoin?

    • Xabier says:

      Pretty much the same thing happened a few years ago, I recall – saved in the nick of time by Qatari tankers.

      Hanging by a thread, but it feels good so far……..

  36. “Fertilizer Prices Climb to New North American Peak, Squeezing Crop Margins…

    “The Green Markets North American Fertilizer Price Index rose 3% to $1,048 per short ton on Friday, rocketing past an October peak for the index that began in January 2002.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-05/soaring-fertilizer-prices-climb-to-new-north-american-peak

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      If the problem isn’t one think, it is another.

  37. “If the labor shortage continues, the US economy won’t be able to recover… recent data suggest that, if anything, the shortage is getting more severe.”

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/04/perspectives/labor-shortage-us-economy/index.html

    • “‘It’s a walkout!’ Inside the fast-food workers’ season of rebellion…

      “Dustin Snyder was tired of the low wages, the 60-hour workweeks and the impossible-to-please customers, and so in early September the assistant general manager at a McDonald’s here drafted a petition that laid bare months of building anger and frustration.

      ““We are all leaving,” his petition threatened, “and hope you find employees that want to work for $9.25 an hour.””

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/interactive/2021/rebellion-mcdonalds-bradford-pa/

      • Karl says:

        Everyone looking for unskilled labor around me (Northeast Ohio) is advertising $15 to $22 an hour. It’s a tremendous increase from the $10 to $15 I saw advertised a year ago.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      With a combination of low wages and vaccination requirements, what do employers expect?

    • Help is on its way for USA Plc.

      “The US needs to find ways to raise the number of workers through larger and more economically motivated immigration policies, and higher labor force participation.”

  38. “Beijing’s bond market meltdown brings world of hidden bills to light.

    “China’s property developers are struggling to pay bills that many of their bond investors didn’t know were there in the first place.”

    https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/beijing-s-bond-market-meltdown-brings-world-of-hidden-bills-to-light-121110501231_1.html

    • “China cracks down on ‘characteristic towns’ that misused land, real estate while racking up massive debt.

      “An initiative to develop towns outside megacities was launched five years ago as part of China’s urbanisation push, but improper planning has plagued projects.”

      https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3155055/china-cracks-down-characteristic-towns-misused-land-real

      • “Chinese developer Kaisa suspends shares as liquidity problems spread.

        “Shares in Chinese property developer Kaisa Group Holdings were suspended in Hong Kong on Friday, a day after the struggling company added to the growing liquidity crisis in China’s real estate sector by saying wealth management products it guaranteed had missed payments.”

        https://www.ft.com/content/c14b2d5f-4c68-4fa1-9c7d-4a8cb031a649

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        More info:

        Across China, poorly planned ghost towns filled with unsold homes or faux-historic architecture – part of an initiative meant to boost tourism and local revenue – are facing elimination as Beijing puts them under the microscope.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Not a very opaque system:

      Missed payments on off-balance sheet IOUs such as high-yield consumer products, secre­tive loans and private bond guarantees have rocked China’s credit market in recent weeks.

      Dollar bondholders are struggling to know their place in the repayment queue in the event of a default, forcing a dramatic repricing of risk that’s all but frozen the primary market for developers.

  39. “As Israel threatens power cuts, how can Palestine pay its bills?

    “Israel has threatened rolling power cuts in the Palestinian territory amid ‘acute’ financial downturn.”

    https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/11/5/as-israel-threatens-power-cuts-how-can-palestine-pay-its-bills

  40. Sam says:

    Look out

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/06/bill-gates-big-oil-companies-will-be-worth-very-little-in-30-years.html

    Here come the clean energy stories and how we don’t need oil anymore.

    Oil companies have lost a lot of money recently; I will give them that.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      So-called renewables won’t be here in 30 years either. Most of us won’t be here, either.

      • Xabier says:

        We are perhaps going to a Better Place, Gail. It will be heavenly! (Maybe a little adjustment via Purgatory for shady characters such as myself.)

        As for the others, a certain Rappaport wrote an amusing piece on ‘Fauci in Hell’ recently.

        • Kowalainen says:

          Don’t you worry about Fausti and Billy. They’re just puppets of their reptilians (brain that is), among other things they got no control over.

          Let any one of you who is without sin be the first to throw a stone at her.” Jo. 8:7

          Xabier, just put it down. It serves you no good.

          Ok? 🤔

  41. adonis says:

    another alternative for the CEP supernova scheduled for 2022 according to my brother-in law underground cities and stockpiling have been occurring for quite some time as not many will survive
    https://thecreative.cafe/betelgeuse-is-going-to-form-a-supernova-can-we-survive-2022-8c44a01f9fc7

    • Bei Dawei says:

      Yes, Betelgeuse is going to go nova at some point (probably not 2022), and should be bright enough to see during the daytime. But earth will not be otherwise affected.

      • ‘Sometime in the next 100,000 years.’ It is much too far away to harm the earth.

        Betelgeuse ‘dimmed’ for a few months in late 2019 to early 2020, but has since ‘brightened’. The ‘dimming’ has been put down as likely due to large-grain circumstellar dust.

        • drb753
          drb says:

          Yes, the story in the link provided that the dimming was due to ice melting on Betelgeuse was a bit too rich to believe. But generally if there is extra dust the spectrum reddens. I am surprised no one checked. Perhaps it was a slow news day.

          • I detected an impulse within myself to view the ‘death of a star’ as a ‘meaningful’, sentimental, romantic event – and I gave myself a stern look. I am guessing that I have seen too many Hollywood movies (eg. Stardust, 2007) at some point.

            It is just chemical processes (mainly hydrogen held together by gravity) burning out in the void – but then, what isn’t? It has been there for 10 million years. We had just separated from gorillas about then.

            • drb753
              drb says:

              we see star deaths all the time -from a distance. It is the single biggest branch in current astronomy (supernova searches). But I am still surprised no one checked the spectrum.

  42. hillcountry – retired electronics manufacturing engineer
    hillcountry says:

    Nov 4
    an update on Adverse Events (AEs) from Australia ..

    I’m a retired barrister (lawyer) currently trying to work up a Court case here, to get our TGA (our local equivalent of the FDA), to suspend/cancel the vaccines in light of unprecedented AE data

    go here for our national database:

    https://www.tga.gov.au/database-adverse-event-notifications-daen

    .. when using the above you must use the brand name for each vaccine .. Comirnaty, AstraZeneca, and SpikeVax

    summary is this .. for all of Pfizer, AstraZeneca, and Moderna .. within the past 10 months since rolling them out:

    Deaths: 591

    Total AE reports: 70,420

    from the health professionals who made the reports (90% of all reports), it is suspected the mRNA vaccine are responsible for the AEs/Deaths in more than 98% of cases

    note the Australian system suffers from a great deal of Under-reporting, which the TGA well knows, and has acknowledged in annual NCIRS reports, so the above figures are right at the lowest end of actual AEs experienced throughout the community

    If like the American system, then the above figures could be increased anywhere by a factor of 10-100 .. though 10 is the best conservative starting point

    .. therefore we could very well be looking at 5,910 actual Deaths to 20 October in the Australia community

    .. and 704,200 actual AEs to 20 October in the Australia community

    My brother, an Associate Professor in Genetic Epidemiology, has verified this under-reporting, and the real AEs occurring being somewhere 10-100 times greater

    only yesterday I threw a more detailed treatment of our AE data over to Emeritus Professor Robert Clancy, with whom I correspond with regularly

    .. in part Robert replied to the data with the following:

    ‘Major under reporting in Australia (as elsewhere), but numbers of deaths at least 50 fold anything ever reported, this has to brought to account. What is happening is “causality” studies by Rose (in Canada) and post mortems (Germany)showing specific histological changes, bringing likely causation to at least half the reports. Scary in the extreme!’

    .. Robert is referencing the noted Dr of Evolutionary Biology Jessica Rose, who has regularly presented to the Vaccine Committee of the FDA .. and a well known paper out of Germany reviewing autopsies, which clearly found causality between vaccines and the dead persons examined

    .. performing Robert’s calculations above with respect to Australian AEs, and we are potentially looking at the following in Australia:

    Deaths to date likely 50 fold greater in the community, therefore:

    591 Deaths X 50 = 29,550

    Where ‘specific histological changes’ point to causality being with/due to the vaccines, likely 50%, therefore:

    Potentially 14,775 Deaths having already occurred in Australia due to these vaccines.

    .. of course the onus is upon the TGA here, due to its privileged access to medical records for each AE

    .. as I related only this morning to a Senator here I am in contact with, and who is trying to hold the TGA to account:

    ‘please keep in mind one critical idea – there is a vaccine canary in the coal mine .. and the coal mine is autopsies that are either not being performed, or a being performed badly upon anyone who has died post vaccination

    .. and the issue of the absence of autopsies, or where they have been performed, then How were they were performed .. is an issue of National concern that lies at the door of the TGA

    A. .. .. for instance .. are Coroners being made alert to possible vaccine causality, to alert them, so they may consider the vaccines as a more plausible cause?

    B. .. .. are Coroners who are examining potential vaccine victims, receiving Instructions/Directions for how to process such cases, particularly any Directions that are forcing Conclusions away from evidencing vaccine causality?

    C. .. .. in light of the unprecedented Deaths appearing in AE reports, has the TGA even made it a priority that these reported Deaths undergo an autopsy .. or indeed, are they avoiding this once standard procedure?

    .. there you go .. a small peak into Australia

    what is unfolding here is occurring everywhere globally these vaccines have been forced upon a population

  43. Student says:

    I think that this last Ugo Bardi’s article has not been suggested yet.
    It talks about the prop#g#nd# tr#p.
    I found it very interesting.
    And it talks (indirectly) also about this fundamental blog.

    https://thesenecaeffect.blogspot.com/2021/11/the-propaganda-trap-how-to-get-out-of-it.html

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Maybe our next leaders will be mad men, if the pattern follows that Germany and Italy in World War II.

  44. An American company based in Louisiana, Venture Global LNG, will start exporting LNG to China, total 80 M tonnes over 20 years, deal worth $30 billion.

    China-in-Focus, 6:09-7:23

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Does the US really have that much natural gas available to sell, if US natural gas and coal supplies are both likely to decline a great deal over that period? It seems like the US (or Louisiana, or lack of spare parts) would cut off exports at some point down the road, whatever the contract says.

      • The article implies that China is getting the LNG on the cheap, but gives no details. Very strange.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          China may have signed a contract, early on.

  45. Fast Eddy says:

    Want the truth about climate change? Ask an Inuit

    CANADIAN High Arctic: I’ve been all over hellwithout a map, but I’m danged if I’ve ever seen so many nutsy characters as those who fly in to our northern settlements. The Arctic has got such a grip on their imagination that it must have cut off the blood supply to their brains. There was this young French fellow who was set on riding his motorbike to the North Pole, his handlebars and frame stuffed with jelly beans as emergency rations. People tried to talk some sense into him but he wouldn’t listen. Well, he set off and two days later he radioed in, ‘Pick me up.’ When they found his broken-down vehicle, polar bears had eaten the saddle and hand grips to get to the jelly beans.

    Another time, a bunch of Japanese fetched up with an ice yacht at Resolute Bay, the kick-off point for North Pole expeditions, thinking the sea ice was as flat as a pancake. They had to be shown the 30ft high pressure ridges from a Twin Otter plane before they called it off. ‘Very bad. Very bad,’ their manager told the pilot.

    https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/want-the-truth-about-climate-change-ask-an-inuit/

    • Student says:

      That is very interesting FE, thank you.
      It will be interesting to check if other information will arrive in line with this argument.

      • never take an eddylink at face value

        check it

        and use at least 3 other separate sources to verify accuracy

        then, and only then, think for yourself and form your own opinion.

        • Student says:

          Norman, I’m touched by your suggestions to me.
          But I think that we all should suppose that we are among adults here, therefore my suggestion is that it is more interesting to talk about arguments and not about what a specific person should do.
          I understand also that there have been some frictions among some people in this blog and I’m not involved in that.
          Maybe it can be more appropriate to give personal suggestions through e-mails if people know each other.
          I also read your posts with interest, like I try to read every post in this blog.
          Thank you, all the best.

    • drb753
      drb says:

      From what they say, it can not be just a change of rotation axis (23.5 degrees tilted from the orbital axis). But it could be a combination of that and precession of that same axis. Two of three effects on which Milankovich cycles are based. i would like to see those data.

      • hillcountry – retired electronics manufacturing engineer
        hillcountry says:

        The last picture, right before the comment section, is a shot from above her north-facing house in Dallas. Those colored lines are her own summer solstice sightings. She hasn’t posted anything since April 2020. I think she’s been pretty ill since 2019 and must be way up there in years (given her self-reported corporate experience). We verified her 2018 observations this year from the 45th-parallel in Michigan, when the sun continued north after the summer solstice for a couple of weeks. I certainly don’t have it figured out and she was even a bit confused in the latter years of her sightings, especially given the 2015 wobble, and various reports coming in from elsewhere. There was confirmation from down under in various comment sections over her last few years of collecting data. Enjoy for what it’s worth. If it’s true, everything else revolves around it, pun intended.

        https://axischange.wordpress.com/2018/12/17/12-2018-examples-of-axis-shift-images/

        • interesting link

          i read a little way into it–a few odd factoids–but i persevered–odd sloshing in peoples swimming pools etc

          then i got to this line:

          Nor are the poles flipping. If your compass still shows north, (which it is) then the poles & magnetic fields are where they should be. Another gov’t hoax.

          nuff said i think

  46. Student says:

    Except for the terrible M/\cr#n, I think that if we will be saved by someone in Europe, it will be by the French.
    It’s really worth watching it. It is a short video:

    • France goes through the same ritual of presidential elections every five years, and the centrist candidate always wins in the second round. If Macron gets into the second round, which seems very likely, then he will certainly remain president. Anyone who is hoping for a different outcome would do well not to get their hopes up too high – disappointment would be a very likely outcome.

      • Student says:

        Very interesting considerations, Mirror on the wall.
        Personally I don’t have any hope about French elections, but I think that given the current weird situation, there is an higher probabilty, in comparison to previous era, that some unexpected things will appear either in France or elsewhere.

  47. Fast Eddy says:

    Avatar
    ratcatcher11 • 42 minutes ago • edited

    Western Australia has the same problem. At this time there are few deaths from Covid but the hospitals are packed to overflowing with deaths associated with the experimental CoVid 19 vaccines. The Western Australia government says it has no idea what is causing the excess mortality IN ALL AGE GROUPS, but the people know exactly what the Australian government is trying to cover up and now the UK government is also in full cover-up mode.

    The Italian Institute of Health have just released revised CoVid death figures ie people who died from Covid and not people who had serious co-morbidities and died with covid as measured using the fake PCR and fake Lateral Flow tests. Numbers dead from Covid were revised down from 130,000 to 3,700. This is lower than the annual flu season. This is the scam that has been pulled on the people by the corrupt globalist fascists now running governments in the West.

    Incidently, who voted for Prince Charles that he should be playing politics? I vote we abolish the corrupt Monarchy in the UK. How do you like those apples Charlie boy? How did your fake global warming conference go Johnson? Roaring success- not! All those private jets and Brandons 90 car cavalcade must have boosted Scotlands CO2 output sky high. Will we get a localised Mediterranean climate in Glasgow this winter there was plenty of hot air and stench generated not least from sleepy Joe and Charlie, ask the Pope.

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  48. Fast Eddy says:

    Your final explanation for the dramatic rise in excess deaths in summer 2021 is that there is some other cause that has not yet been identified. As noted earlier the phenomenon of excess deaths in the presence of a Covid epidemic was not seen in summer 2020, but is seen in summer 2021. What differs between the two years?

    The glaringly obvious answer is the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccination. There was no COVID-19 vaccination programme in 2020, but there was roll-out of Covid vaccinations in a sequential way to increasingly younger age groups in 2021, a pattern that we see in the manifestation of excess deaths.

    All of the COVID-19 vaccines are novel and experimental with no long-term safety data. They are now associated with a wide range of serious side-effects (blood clotting, myocarditis, Guillain-Barre syndrome) whose likely frequency in the wider population was not assessed in the small-scale phase one and two trials that included only a subset of healthy volunteers.

    The Yellow Card adverse events reporting system, that capture only a fraction of events, has already recorded over 1,700 deaths in the U.K. population associated with the COVID-19 vaccines. There is therefore a prima facie case for COVID-19 vaccination being a contributing factor to the dramatic rise in summer excess deaths in Scotland in 2021.

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