Spike in energy prices suggests that sharp changes are ahead

An analysis of what is going terribly wrong in the world economy

The world economy requires stability. People living in the world economy need stability, as well. They need food every day and a place to live. Children need a home situation that they can count on.

Back in the 1950 to 1979 era, when energy supplies of many kinds were growing rapidly, it was possible to build stability into the economic system: Jobs with a company were often long-time careers; pensions after retirement were offered; electricity was sold through regulated “utilities” that charged prices that wrapped in long-term maintenance of the electric grid and the cost of fuel, among other things.

But as high energy prices hit in the 1970s, the system became more and more strained. The mood changed. Margaret Thatcher became the Prime Minister of the UK in 1979, and Ronald Reagan became President of the United States in 1981. Under their leadership, debt was increasingly used to cover longer-term costs, and competition was encouraged. A person might say that a move toward greater complexity, but less stability, of the economic system had begun.

Now, through several iterations, the economy has become increasingly complex, with less and less redundancy to provide stability. The energy price spike that is being experienced today is a warning that something is very, very wrong. As I see the situation, the trend toward complexity has gone too far; the economic system is starting to break down. Sharp changes appear to be ahead. The world economy is shifting into contraction mode, with more and more parts of the system failing.

In this post, I will discuss some of the issues involved. It turns out that energy modelers haven’t understood how detrimental intermittency really is. They modeled intermittent electricity from renewables (wind, water and solar) as far more helpful than it really is. This has been confusing to everyone. The sharp changes that the title of this post refers to represent an early stage of economic collapse.

[1] If energy supplies are inexpensive and widely available, it is easy to build an economy.

I have written in the past about the need for energy supplies to keep the economy functioning properly being analogous to the need for food, to keep humans functioning properly.

The economy doesn’t operate on a single type of energy, any more than a human lives on a single type of food. The economy uses a portfolio of energy types. These include human labor, energy directly from sunlight, and energy from burning various types of fuels, including biomass and fossil fuels.

As long as energy sources are inexpensive and readily available, an economy can grow and provide goods and services for an increasing number of citizens. We can think of this as being analogous to, “As long as buying and preparing food takes little of our wages (or time, if we are growing it ourselves), then there are plenty of wages (or time) left over for other activities.”

But once energy prices start spiking, it looks like there is not enough to go around. In the absence of ways to hide the problem, citizens need to cut back on non-essentials, pushing the economy into recession. Or businesses stop making essential products that require natural gas or coal, such as fertilizer or fuel additives to hold emissions down. The lack of such products can, by itself, be very disruptive to an economy.

[2] Once energy supplies become constrained, energy prices tend to spike. In the early stages of these price spikes, adding complexity allows the economy to better tolerate higher energy costs.

There are many ways to work around the problem of rising energy prices, at least temporarily. For example:

  • Build vehicles, such as cars, that are smaller and more fuel efficient.
  • Extend fossil fuel supplies by building nuclear power plants, hydroelectric generating plants, wind turbines, solar panels, and geothermal electricity generation.
  • Make factories more efficient.
  • Add insulation to buildings; eliminate any cracks that might allow outside air into buildings.
  • Instead of pre-funding capital costs, use debt to transfer these costs to later purchasers of energy products.
  • Encourage competition in providing different parts of electricity production and distribution.
  • Develop time-of-day pricing for electricity, so as to keep prices down to the marginal cost of production, even though this does not, in total, repay all costs of production and distribution.
  • Cut back on routine maintenance of electricity transmission systems.
  • Purchase coal and natural gas imports using spot pricing, rather than long term contracts, as long as these seem to be lower-priced than long-term commitments.
  • Throughout the economy, take advantage of economies of scale and mechanization. Build huge companies. Replace human labor wherever possible.
  • Stimulate the economy by increasing debt availability and lowering interest rates. This is helpful because a more rapidly growing economy can withstand higher energy prices.
  • Use global supply chains to source as large a share of manufacturing inputs as possible from countries with low wages and low energy costs.
  • Build very “lean” just-in-time supply chains.
  • Create complex financial systems, with debt resold and repackaged in different ways, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds.

Together, these approaches comprise “complexity.” They tend to make the economic system less resilient. At least temporarily, they pass fewer of the higher costs of energy products through to current citizens. As a result, the economy can temporarily withstand a higher price of energy. But the system tends to become brittle and prone to failure.

[3] There are limits to added complexity. In fact, complexity limits are what are likely to make the economic system fail.

Joseph Tainter, in The Collapse of Complex Societies, makes the point that there are diminishing returns to added complexity. For example, the changes that result in the biggest gains in fuel savings for vehicles are the ones added first.

Another drawback of added complexity is the extreme wage disparity that tends to result. Instead of everyone earning close to the same amount, those at the top of the hierarchy get a disproportionate share of the wages. This is what leads to many of the problems we are seeing today. Would-be workers don’t want to apply for jobs, even when they seem to be available. Citizens become unhappy and rebellious. Lower-paid workers may not eat well, so that pandemics spread more easily.

The underlying problem is that population tends to rise, but it becomes harder and harder to produce food and other necessities with the arable land and energy resources available. Ugo Bardi uses Figure 1 to show the shape of the expected decline in goods and services produced in such a situation:

Figure 1. Seneca Cliff by Ugo Bardi.

According to Bardi, Seneca in the title refers to a statement written by Lucius Annaeus Seneca in 91 CE, “It would be of some consolation for the feebleness of ourselves and our works if all things should perish as slowly as they come into being. As it is, increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.” In fact, this shape seems to approximate the type of cycle Turchin and Nefedov observed when analyzing several agricultural civilizations that collapsed in their book Secular Cycles.

[4] An increasing amount of complexity has been added since 1981 to help compensate for rising oil and other energy prices.

The prices of commodities, including oil, tend to be extremely variable because storage is very limited, relative to the large quantities used every day. There needs to be a very close match between supply and demand, or prices will rise very high or fall very low.

Oil is exceptionally important because it is the single largest source of energy for the world economy. It is heavily used in food production and in the extraction of minerals of all types. If the price of oil increases, the price of food tends to rise, as does the price of metals of many types. Oil is also important as a transportation fuel.

In the early days, before depletion led to higher extraction costs, oil prices remained stable and low (Figure 2), as a result of utility-type pricing by the Texas Railroad Commission. Oil prices started to spike, once depletion became more of a problem.

Figure 2. Brent-equivalent oil prices in 2020 US$. Based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Economists tell us that oil and other commodity prices depend on “supply and demand.” When we look at turning points for oil prices, it becomes clear that financial manipulations play a significant role in determining oil demand. Such manipulations lead to prices that have practically nothing to do with the underlying cost of producing commodities. The huge changes in prices seem to reflect actions by central bankers to encourage or discourage lending (QE on Figure 3).

Figure 3. Monthly Brent oil prices with dates of US beginning and ending Quantitative Easing. Later Quantitative Easing did not bring oil prices back up to their prior level.

Quantitative easing (QE) makes it cheaper to borrow money. Adding QE tends to raise oil prices; deleting QE seems to reduce oil prices. These prices have little direct connection with the cost of extracting oil from the ground. Instead, prices are closely related to the amount of complexity being added to the system and whether it is having its intended impact on energy prices.

At the time of the 1973-1974 oil crisis, many people thought that the world was truly running out of oil. The petroleum industry did, indeed, succeed in extracting more. The 2005 to 2008 period was another period of concern that the world might be running out of oil. Then, in 2014, when oil prices suddenly fell, the dominant story suddenly became, “There is plenty of oil. The world’s biggest problem is climate change.”

In fact, there was no real reason to believe that the shortage situation had changed. US oil from shale had a brief run-up in production in the 2007 to 2019 period, but this production was unprofitable for producers, especially after oil prices dropped in 2014 (Figures 2 and 3). Producers of oil from shale are no longer investing very much in new production. With the sweet spots of fields depleted and this low level of investment, it will not be surprising if oil production from shale continues to fall.

Figure 4. US crude and condensate oil production for the 48 states, Alaska, and for shale basins, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.

The real story is that the supply of oil, coal and natural gas is limited by the extent to which additional complexity can be added to the economy, to keep selling prices so that they are both:

  • High enough for producers of these products, so that they can both pay adequate taxes and make adequate reinvestment.
  • Low enough for consumers, especially for the many consumers around the world with very low wages.

Many people have missed the point that, at least since 2014, financial manipulations have not kept prices for fossil fuels high enough for producers. Low prices are driving them out of business. This is the case for oil, coal and natural gas. In fact, low prices caused by giving wind and solar priority on the electric grid are driving producers of nuclear electricity out of business, as well.

Oil producers require a price of $120 a barrel or more to cover all of their costs. Without a much higher price than available today (even with oil prices over $80 per barrel), shale oil production can be expected to fall. In fact, OPEC and its affiliates won’t ramp up production by very large amounts either because they, too, need much higher prices to cover all their costs.

[5] Economists and analysts of many types put together models that give misleading results because they missed several important points.

After oil prices fell in late 2014, it became fashionable to believe that vast amounts of fossil fuels are available for extraction, and that our biggest problem in the future would be climate change. Besides low prices, one reason for this concern was the high level of fossil fuel proven reserves reported by many countries around the world.

Figure 5. Ratio of reported proven reserves at December 31, 2020, to reported production in 2020 based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Even fossil fuel companies started to invest in renewables because of the poor returns experienced from fossil fuel investments. It looked to them as if investment in renewables would be more profitable than continued investment in fossil fuel production. Of course, the profits of renewables were largely the result of government subsidies, particularly the subsidy of “going first.” Giving wind and solar first access when they happen to be available tends to lead to very low, and even negative, wholesale prices for other electricity producers. This drives these other producers of electricity out of business, even though they are really needed to correct for the intermittency of renewables.

There were many things that hardly anyone understood:

  • Energy prices in today’s financially manipulated economy bear little relationship to the true cost of production.
  • Fossil fuel producers need to be guaranteed long-term high prices, if there is to be any chance of ramping up production.
  • Intermittent renewables (including wind, solar, and hydroelectric) have little value in a modern economy unless they are backed up with a great deal of fossil fuels and nuclear electricity.
  • Our real problem with fossil fuels is a shortage problem. Price signals are very misleading.
  • The models of economists are mostly wrong. The use of carbon pricing and intermittent renewables will simply disadvantage the countries adopting them.

The reason why geologists and fossil fuel producers give misleading information about the amount of oil, coal and natural gas available to be extracted is because it is not something they can be expected to know. In a sense, the question is, “How much complexity can the economy withstand before it becomes too brittle to handle a temporary shock, such as a pandemic shutdown?” It isn’t the amount of fossil fuels in the ground that matters; it is the follow-on effects of the high level of complexity on the rest of the economy that matters.

[6] At this point, ramping up fossil fuel production would be very difficult because of the long-term low prices for fossil fuels. Unfortunately, the economy cannot get along with only today’s small quantity of renewables.

Figure 6. World energy supply by type, based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Most people don’t realize just how slowly renewables have been ramping up as a share of world energy supplies. For 2020, wind and solar together amounted to only 5% of world energy supplies and hydroelectric amounted to 7% of world energy supplies. The world economy cannot function on 12% (or perhaps 20%, if more items are included) of its current energy supply any more than a person’s body can function on 12% or 20% of its current calorie intake.

Also, the world’s reaction to the pandemic acted, in many ways, like oil rationing. Figure 6 shows that consumption was reduced for oil, coal and natural gas. An even bigger impact was on the prices of these fuels. Prices fell, even though the cost of production was not falling. (See, for example, Figure 2 for the fall in oil prices.)

These lower prices left fossil fuel providers even worse off financially than they were previously. Some providers went out of business. They certainly do not have reserve funds set aside to develop the new fields that they would need to develop, if they were to ramp up production for oil, coal and natural gas now. Because of this, it is virtually impossible to ramp up fossil fuel production now. A lead time of at least several years is needed, besides a clear way of funding the higher production.

[7] Every plant and animal and, in fact, every growing thing, needs to win the battle against intermittency.

As mentioned in the introduction, humans need to eat on a regular basis. Hunter-gatherers solved the problem of intermittency of harvests by moving from area to area, so that their own location would match the location of food availability. Early agriculture and cities became possible when the growing of grain was perfected. Grain was both storable and portable, so it could be used year around. It could also be brought to cities, allowing people to live in a different location from where the crops were stored.

We can think of any number of adaptations in the plant and animal kingdom to intermittency. Some birds migrate. Bears hibernate. Deciduous trees lose their leaves each fall and grow them back again each spring.

Our supply of any of our energy products is in some sense intermittent. Oil wells deplete, so new ones need to be drilled. Biomass burned for fuel grows for a while, before it is cut down (or falls down) and is burned for fuel. Solar energy is available only until a cloud comes in front of the sun. In winter, solar energy is mostly absent.

[8] Any modeling of the cost of energy needs to take into account the full system needed to “bridge the intermittency gap.”

As far as I can see, the only pricing system that generates enough funds is one that takes into account the full system needs, including the need to overcome intermittency and the need for transportation of the energy to the user. In fact, I would argue that even more than this needs to be included. Good roads are generally required if the system is to be kept in good repair. Good schools are needed for would-be workers in the energy system. Any costs associated with pollution should be wrapped into the required price. Thus, the true cost of energy generation really should include a fairly substantial load for taxes for all of the governmental services that the system requires. And, of course, all parts of the system should pay their workers a living wage.

This high level of pricing can only be provided by utility type pricing of fossil fuels and electricity. The use of long-term contracts to purchase fossil fuels, uranium or electricity can also build in most of these costs. The alternative approach, buying fuels using spot contracts or pricing based on time of day electricity supply, looks appealing when costs are low. But such systems don’t build in sufficient funding for replacement of depleted fields or the full cost of a 24/7/365 electrical system.

Modelers didn’t understand that the “low prices now, higher prices later” approaches that were being advocated don’t really work for the long term. As limits are approached, prices tend to spike badly. Modelers had assumed that the economic system could handle such spikes in prices, and that the spikes in prices would quickly lead to new supply or adaptation. In fact, huge spikes in prices are very disruptive to the system. New supply is what is really needed, but providers tend to be too damaged by previous long periods of artificially low prices to provide this supply. The approach looks great in academic papers, but it leads to rolling blackouts and unfilled natural gas reservoirs for winter.

[9] Major changes for the worse seem to be ahead for the world economy.

At this point, it seems as if complexity has gone too far. The pandemic moved the world economy in the direction of contraction but prices of fossil fuels tend to spike as the economy opens up.

Figure 7. Chart by BBC/Bloomberg. Source: BBC

The recent spikes in prices are highly unlikely to produce the natural gas, coal and oil that is required. They are more likely to cause recession. Fossil fuel suppliers need high prices guaranteed for the long term. Even if such guarantees could be provided, it would still take several years to ramp up production to the level needed.

The general trend of the economy is likely to be in the direction of the Seneca Cliff (Figure 1). Everything won’t collapse all at once, but big “chunks” may start breaking away.

The debt system is a very vulnerable part. Debt is, in effect, a promise of goods or services made with energy in the future. If the energy isn’t there, the promised goods and services won’t be available. Governments may try to hide this problem with new debt, but governments can’t solve the underlying problem of missing goods and services.

Pension systems of all kinds are also vulnerable. If fewer goods and services are being made in total, they will need to be divided up differently. Pensioners are likely to get a reduced share, or nothing at all.

Importers of fossil fuels seem likely to be especially affected by price spikes because exporters have the ability to cut back in the quantity available for export, if total supply is inadequate. Europe is one part of the world that is especially dependent on oil, natural gas and coal imports.

Figure 8. Total energy production and consumption of Europe, based on data of BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. The gap between consumption and production is filled by imports of oil, coal, natural gas and biofuels. Within Europe, countries also import electricity from each other.
Figure 9. Europe energy production by fuel based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

The combined production of hydroelectric, wind and solar and biofuels (in Figure 9) amounts to only 19% of Europe’s total energy consumption (shown in Figure 8). There is no possible way that Europe can get along only with renewable energy, at any foreseeable time in the future.

European economists should have told European citizens, “There is no way you can get along using renewables alone for many, many years. Treat the countries that are exporting fossil fuels to you very well. Sign long term contracts with them. If they want to use a new pipeline, raise no objection. Your bargaining power is very low.” Instead, European economists talked about saving the planet from carbon dioxide. It is an interesting idea, but the sad truth is that if Europe takes itself out of the contest for energy imports, it mostly leaves more fossil fuels for exporters to sell to others.

China stands out as well, as the world’s largest consumer of energy, and as the world’s largest importer of oil, coal and natural gas. It is already encountering electricity shortages that are leading to rolling blackouts. In fact, rolling blackouts in China started almost a year ago in late 2020. China is, of course, a major exporter of goods to the rest of the world. If China has major energy problems, the rest of the world will no longer be able to count on China’s exports. Lack of China’s exports, by itself, could be a huge problem for the rest of the world.

I could continue speculating on the changes ahead. The basic problem, as I see it, is that we have reached limits on oil, coal and natural gas extraction, pretty much simultaneously. The limits are really complexity limits. The renewables that we have today aren’t able to save us, regardless of what the models of Mark Jacobson and others might say.

In the next few years, I am afraid that we will find out how collapse actually proceeds in a very interconnected world economy.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
This entry was posted in Financial Implications and tagged collapse, complexity, economic models, high oil prices, Seneca cliff, stability. Bookmark the permalink.

4,474 Responses to Spike in energy prices suggests that sharp changes are ahead

  1. Dennis L. says:

    Came across this:

    “Conservatism is not something that prevents you from going up and forward, but something that prevents you from going back and down into chaos.”

    Putin.

    My personal goal is not great leaps forward, it is to not screw up. So many ways to make mistakes, so very few ways to make things work.

    Dennis L.

    • I thought that you were off to the moon?

    • ssincoski
      ssincoski says:

      As I said in other comments, he seems to be one of the few leaders that actually admits what is going on. Others may know, but they feel constrained to comment.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Maybe Conservatism is “not adding complexity too rapidly.” It is not pushing the little guy down at the same time the big corporation and its top employees are pushed up.

    • jodytishmack
      jodytishmack says:

      Conservative and Conservationist have the same root. We often forget that. Change is good, in fact change is impossible to stop. But balance and stability require conservation. We need to recognize what we need to keep and what we need to change.

      • It seems to derive from the Latin ‘servare’.

        > Rix 1994a argues that the original meaning of *serwo- probably was ‘guard, shepherd’, which underwent a pejorative development to ‘slave’ in Italy between 700 and 450 BC. Servire would be the direct derivative of servus, hence ‘be a slave’; servare would in his view be derived from an older noun *serwa- or *serwom ‘observation, heedance’.

        ‘Con’ simply means ‘with’ or ‘together’.

        At a glance, it looks like a ‘virtue’ of an intermediate, subject caste that executes the legislation of the rulers, the decision makers. At a lower rung, it is the obedience of the citizen to what is given – abidance.

        Thus in social terms, ‘conservatism’ could be taken to imply a protracted period of implementation of the same rules, without fresh input from the rulers.

        Thus it is ‘habit’, old ‘order’, (perhaps even ‘slavish adherence’) and perhaps a social body that is decapitated of fresh input, perhaps through the loss of a ruling caste. In modern terms it would imply a government without initiative, possibly even given to superstition. It is repeated action without fresh initiative.

        That is of course a matter of pros and cons – the old and trusty vs. adaptation to new demands and an openness to fresh advances.

        In itself it is ‘neural’, the old ways could be good or bad, adequate or obsolete – and new ways are prone to pros and cons too.

        And, as you say, it has a general meaning of ‘pre-serve’, maintain – which can apply to any entity, ‘preserve the door’ or whatever.

  2. Reports suggest that the military advantage may have shifted to China – if China and USA can effectively defend against each other’s ballistic missiles, and USA cannot defend against China’s hypersonic missiles, which USA does not (yet) have.

    ‘We have no idea how they did this.’

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10100533/China-surprises-U-S-hypersonic-missile-test-FT-reports.html

    > Beijing blasts nuclear-capable hypersonic missile right around globe: Terrifying new 21,000mph weapon circles in low orbit before striking anywhere on Earth from space in minutes – and would render US anti-missile defences useless

    China secretly tested a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile which orbited the globe before returning to Earth to strike its target in a technological development that would overcome US anti-ballistic missile systems.

    The incident has left US intelligence officials stunned, sources say, as it shows ‘China has made astonishing progress on the development of its hypersonic weapons’.

    ‘We have no idea how they did this,’ a person familiar with the test told the FT.

    Ballistic missiles fly into outer space before returning on steep trajectories at higher speeds. Hypersonic weapons are difficult to defend against because they fly towards targets at lower altitudes but can achieve more than five times the speed of sound.

    An op-ed in Beijing’s state media outlet Global Times said that if the FT report is to be believed, it would be a ‘new blow to the US’ mentality of strategic superiority over China’.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/10/17/china-secretly-tests-first-hypersonic-missile-move-catches-us/

    > …. China’s test of a hypersonic missile in space is a “game-changer” that should fundamentally alter the US’s calculations about Beijing’s military leverage, experts have warned.

    Drew Thompson, a former American defence department official with responsibility for China, said the test “really should change US calculations”.

    “Especially if more tests improve the accuracy, establish its credibility, then I think it is a game changer in a way that little else has really shifted the balance,” said Mr Thompson, who is also a visiting research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.

    “Once it works, once it’s credible, it negates US missile defences and it makes the US vulnerable and that has to fundamentally change US strategic calculations about its leverage and China’s ability to hold at risk major cities throughout the United States.”

    • It seems to dramatically put the rest the idea, that some still entertain, that the Chinese cannot independently develop their own advanced technology.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I have never heard of this before. How do we know if the story is really true?

    • jodytishmack
      jodytishmack says:

      The idea that China would attack it’s main customer with nuclear weapons, one of main currencies they hold in their basket of currencies, the place where they own many food production facilities such as Smithfield farms, is a non starter. They simple are saber rattling as if to say “Don’t test us.”. They have no possible advantage of attacking the US. The fact that they feel it necessary to ‘show’ their hand simply tells us that they have problems and don’t want anyone to intervene.

      • Some experts suggest that it is intended to deter attacks from USA in the future. China has got ahead of the game, and so it is less likely to be found behind the game. USA has been upping the ante as it is losing its global geopolitical hegemony to China, and China has been moved to reinforce its deterrents. As you say, it does not seem particularly likely that China would attack USA.

        • So, China has created a brilliant new means to deliver a weapon that everyone already knows is far too dangerous to ever be discharged – another of the technologically complex pseudo-solutions that characterise this era.

          In fact, forget using it – even an explicit threat from China to take out a city on US soil in a game of brinksmanship would tank stock markets and quite possibly at this point the entire financial system.

          No additional deterrents are necessary, as both China and the US already know full well that any hot war between them would be unwinnable and inherently self-defeating, given that both nations are localised and interdependent expressions of a networked, global whole – a whole which is now demonstrably fragile to disruptions.

          These kinds of “advances” are primarily about national ego and reassuring citizens at home that their nations are still on an upward trajectory, even when evidence is starting to suggest otherwise:

          “China new home prices hit by first month-on-month fall since 2015.”

          https://www.ft.com/content/2764776a-2ee6-4cb2-94f8-05c4603dc6d5

          • jodytishmack
            jodytishmack says:

            I think the next war will be one of cyber attack. Even if our military computers are protected from computer viruses our grid isn’t and if our grid is shut down it will be total chaos.

      • Bobby says:

        Oh no, be afraid!!! Blame the Russians for selling the know-how. Angst the American military for a cheap laugh. Get everyone polarised and worried… It helps the world situation so much.

        Seen this article on RT, so it’s geopolitical countermeasures and promotion.

        Maybe the Chinese intend to miniatures the technology and sell it to postal services or Amazon 😉 …’Get that package sent with supersonic and they won’t even hear it coming’…unless it hits another package …in transit…perhaps in orbit…and then ummm….oopsy. Ever heard of/been invited to swordfish/starfish parties?

      • Kowalainen says:

        I’m thinking the same with regards to CCP/Taiwan. The saber rattling is just PR as per BAU.

        Only idiots would bomb their “own” means of production.

  3. hillcountry – retired electronics manufacturing engineer
    hillcountry says:

    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-coal-prices-dive-11-beijing-plans-intervene-ease-power-crunch-2021-10-22/

    Coking coal was down 11% and coke futures fell 9% on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, extending losses from prior sessions.

    “We’re now seeing the fruits of China’s supply response, as the government has given miners carte blanche to produce at full tilt – even permitting the relaxation of safety inspections in some cases,” said Atilla Widnell, managing director at Navigate Commodities in Singapore.

    “The parabolic pricing action largely represented the fear of buyers being unable to source sufficient volumes to feed power plants and coke ovens,” Widnell said.

    “Therefore, we can expect prices to fall almost as fast as they’ve risen now that a wave of supply is inbound,” he added.

    • Sam says:

      I think there is a lot of “loose” fuel to burn to keep BAU going for another a while…. The air might get dirty but ya got to die of something sometime!

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      When supplies get tight, governments will do whatever they can to get the energy supplies they need. This is true, whether or not government officials are elected by the people.

  4. Aviation’s addiction to growth is overriding its ability to lower emissions
    Purchase and download a copy of this analysis.
    PDF copies of our reports are included with TAC/Pro. Learn more.
    Aviation has a complicated relationship with carbon dioxide. The byproduct responsible for a large portion of climate change, CO2 is an inevitable consequence of burning hydrocarbons — the only viable source to power commercial aviation since its dawn.

    Choosing to travel by air remains one of the most impactful decisions an individual can make regarding their individual carbon footprint — a term first coined by British Petroleum in a 2003 advertisement.

    Related: Climate challenge to aviation sets huge expectations for sustainable fuels

    Globally, aviation remains a growth industry. Fluctuating between 2% and 2.5% of global CO2 emissions across all industries since 2000, aviation has more than doubled in revenue passenger kilometers flown while matching the growth of the world’s economies in emissions. That aviation has remained such a relatively small, but highly visible, portion of the 36 gigatons of annual carbon output is matched by the uncomfortable reality that emissions from other sectors have increased proportionately along with aviation.

    Even as the historic successes by aviation in consistently reducing fuel burn per passenger and, in turn, carbon emissions, the “failure” has been in aviation’s unwillingness to control its growth. Global growth has steadily outpaced the efficiency benefit of new technology with the addition of new flying at ever-higher rates. As fuel consumption has fallen, so has the cost of flying to levels that have unlocked air travel for a larger portion of the world’s population.

    Long term industry trends in aircraft size and economics in mature and established markets are informing new consumer behaviors around the purchase of air travel with new search features from Google. This TAC Analysis looks at the big picture of aviation’s contribution to global carbon emissions

    From the website Aircurrent.com

    United Airlines CEO has raised concerns over the sharp rise in aviation jet fuel…

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I don’t think passenger airlines are doing all that well, regardless of what this article may say. Too many empty planes in 2020. Not necessarily doing all that well now.

      Airlines would love to cut back their flight schedules. Not enough business flyers; not enough international tourists. Vaccination mandates are a good way to get workers to quit, allowing such cutbacks.

      • You are right again Gail
        One YouTube channel I subscribe to claims that American Airlines posted a “profit” of over 187 million clams, but the government covered over $990 million clams for employee payroll!!!for the ,,3rd quarter.
        https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0kKxUeHdjQg

        He went on to say think of all entire industries depending on government handouts…not even mentioning the banking sector….

  5. Fast Eddy says:

    Summary

    Four coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines have now been approved for use in the UK. Rigorous
    clinical trials have been undertaken to understand the immune response, safety profile and
    efficacy of these vaccines as part of the regulatory process.

    Ongoing monitoring of the vaccines as they are rolled out in the population is important to continually ensure that clinical and public health guidance on the vaccination programme is built upon the best available evidence.

    UK Health Security Agency, UKHSA, formerly Public Health England (PHE), works closely with
    the Medicines and Healthcare Regulatory Agency (MHRA), NHS England, and other
    government, devolved administration and academic partners to monitor the COVID-19
    vaccination programme. Details of the vaccine surveillance strategy are set on the page
    COVID-19: vaccine surveillance strategy (1). As with all vaccines, the safety of COVID-19
    vaccines is continuously being monitored by the MHRA. They conclude that overall, the benefits
    of COVID-19 vaccines outweigh any potential risks (2).

    Vaccine effectiveness

    Several studies of vaccine effectiveness have been conducted in the UK which indicate that 2
    doses of vaccine are between 65 and 95% effective at preventing symptomatic disease with
    COVID-19 with the Delta variant, with higher levels of protection against severe disease
    including hospitalisation and death. There is some evidence of waning of protection against
    infection and symptomatic disease over time, though protection against severe disease remains
    high in most groups at least 5 months after the second dose.

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027511/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-42.pdf

    • Fast Eddy says:

      OMG!!!

      ‘Fully vaccinated’ Canadian nursing home hit with 12 deaths attributed to COVID

      https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=242

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        According to the report:

        Nearly 85 percent of the inhabitants at the long-term care facility in British Columbia have tested positive despite being immunized. . .

        So far, 12 deaths associated with COVID have occurred at the Willingdon Care Centre in Burnaby, British Columbia

        We don’t know the ultimate number of deaths yet.

  6. Fast Eddy says:

    Alex Berenson notices a small admission tucked away on page 23 of the latest Public Health England vaccine surveillance report. According to “recent observations from UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) surveillance data, … N antibody levels appear to be lower in individuals who acquire infection following 2 doses of vaccination.”

    This is evidence that our vaccines may permanently compromise immunity to SARS-2, via Original Antigenic Sin — the phenomenon, long observed in the antibody response to influenza infections, that initial exposure to a pathogen (or a spike protein) shapes all subsequent immune responses to mutated, recombined or reassorted instances of that pathogen. Our Corona vaccines elicit antibodies against the spike protein alone, while natural infection provokes antibodies against other virus proteins as well, including the nucleocapsid or N protein. The broad spectrum of natural immune response is why recovered individuals enjoy much greater and longer-lasting protection, than people who have been merely vaccinated.

    The vaccinators have always insisted that there’s nothing to see here. You can get the spike-specific protection of vaccination, they say, and pick up broader-based protection from low-risk natural infection later on. The problem, though, is that the vaccines appear to influence subsequent immune response, focusing antibodies on legacy spike and making it much easier for SARS-2 to escape immune resistance. Potentially for good, and in billions of people.

    The PHE reports have been tracking antibodies against the N protein in blood donors for a while now, as a means of assessing the prevalence of natural infection in the population. Here’s what that looks like:

    https://eugyppius.substack.com/p/mass-vaccination-may-permanently

  7. “Venezuelans Break Off Flakes of Gold to Pay for Meals, Haircuts…

    “A one-night stay at a hotel? That’ll be half a gram. Lunch for two at a Chinese restaurant? A quarter of a gram. A haircut? An eighth of a gram, please.”

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/venezuelans-break-off-flakes-gold-120000884.html

    • “Soaring Lebanese fuel prices deepen misery.

      “Taxi drivers blocked roads in Beirut on Thursday in protest at spiralling petrol prices… Gasoline today is about 10 times more expensive at the pump than it was just a few months ago.”

      https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/soaring-lebanese-fuel-prices-deepen-misery-2021-10-21/

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Gasoline today is about 10 times more expensive at the pump than it was just a few months ago, shooting higher as the central bank has stopped providing dollars at heavily subsidised exchange rates for fuel imports.

        Several dozen taxi drivers parked their cars in Martyrs Square in the middle of Beirut and blocked a nearby main road in protest at the latest hike – a 25% increase announced on Wednesday.

        “How are we supposed to live? We drive around and can’t find passengers on the road,” said Hanna Ibrahim, a taxi driver. When passengers can be found, arguments often breakout over the fare, she said. “They make us cry and we make them cry.”

        Apocalypse soon?

    • Might be so Harry, in a Gold producing area like this Gold may be plentiful that they make due with what they got.
      https://www.apmex.com/product/117581/1-2-gram-gold-bar-apmex-in-tep
      Of course, Apmex sells overvspot
      Apmex sells 1/2 gram for r a little over $50

    • jodytishmack
      jodytishmack says:

      This is why I keep some cash on hand as well as silver in the 1 oz. size. Gold is too valuable to “break off a flake”, and how many people have gold? It really comes down to what people are willing to accept in exchange for the goods available. Having something to exchange or barter is very important.

      • ssincoski
        ssincoski says:

        Exactly. I my area (small village in Poland) I am storing up cases of 200ml bottles of vodka. Everyone’s choice of currency will vary depending on location.

        • jodytishmack
          jodytishmack says:

          That will likely be an excellent form of exchange! Not only to drink but to sterilize wounds and make tinctures if you know how to collect herbs with medicinal value. I also encourage you to store toilet paper and aspirin.

          • ssincoski
            ssincoski says:

            Already on both the toilet paper and aspirin. My yard is a herbal wildland. Behind my house is a national forest/wetland area. There are still a few old women around that remember the old ways. I rely on them for advice and try to support them while I can.

            • jodytishmack
              jodytishmack says:

              Sounds like a good plan. I suggest you spend more time talking to the old women. Humans have a tendency to tell stories and share information. Knowledge is never superfluous.

            • project wis.dom
              project wis.dom says:

              Hi ssincoski, looks like we are fellow countrymen. My plan looks quite similar to yours, although less advanced.
              If you’re interested in exchanging some information and experience please email me.
              Best wishes.

            • HDUK says:

              I can highly recommend Dr Sarah Myhills books and website she was also interviewed in June 2020 and gave excellent advice re beating the virus (and others) she calls her protocols ground hog basis and ground hog acute, she uses very high dose VIT C to bowel tolerance, lugols iodine, high dose VIT D AND recommends the paleo ketogenic diet which she says is non negotiable. I am currently reading Ecological Medicine and The Infection Game which arrived today.
              https://youtu.be/qF3WQVltbL8
              This video explains many mechanism to stay healthy and beat chronic disease and the iodine is a must for any medicine kit.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I suggest you print this out and sing this song when the bad guys arrive… you can try it with the radiation plume as well …

              Apparently this talisman works best if you gently thump a tambourine…. it mesmerizes the bad guys and they wont rape and murder …. let me know how that goes

              You’ll be dead within a week of the collapse of BAU — quite likely before when Marek’s gets underway… even earlier if you’ve been injected

              Kumbaya, My Lord
              Riverside Gospel Group
              Kumbaya my Lord, kumbaya
              Kumbaya my Lord, kumbaya
              Kumbaya my Lord, kumbaya
              Oh Lord, kumbaya
              Someone’s singing Lord, kumbaya
              Someone’s singing Lord, kumbaya
              Someone’s singing Lord, kumbaya
              Oh Lord, kumbayah
              Someone’s crying Lord, kumbaya
              Someone’s crying Lord, kumbaya
              Someone’s crying Lord, kumbaya
              Oh Lord, kumbaya
              Someone’s praying Lord, kumbaya
              Someone’s praying Lord, kumbaya
              Someone’s praying Lord, kumbaya
              Oh Lord, kumbaya
              Oh Lord, kumbaya
              Oh Lord, kumbaya
              Oh Lord, kumbaya
              Oh Lord, kumbaya

            • project wis.dom
              project wis.dom says:

              @FE

              I assume you are better prepared in your NZ castle for the native tribes reclaiming their land after BAU goes bust? Lot of ammo and flamethrowers for such occasion?
              And then chinese boarding…?
              Good luck 😉

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Great … but what about this?

            http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sj08HhAhCbI/U5fonU1VlFI/AAAAAAAAAu4/_t36SAYS5cc/s1600/Chernobyl+Plume.jpg

            Do you think there are any herbs you can find that will cure radiation poisoning?

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Good idea… if you drink enough vodka you can possibly cure radiation sickness

      • Fast Eddy says:

        If you feed the radiation god flecks of gold … he may not poison you?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The rich pay with what they have.

  8. “The revenge of the old economy… It is tempting to blame today’s shortages in the “old economy” — everything from energy to other basic materials, and even agriculture — on a series of temporary disruptions driven largely by the Covid-19 pandemic.

    “But outside of a few labour issues, these bottlenecks have little to do with Covid. Instead, the roots of today’s commodity crunch can be traced back to the aftermath of the financial crisis and the following decade of falling returns and chronic under-investment in the old economy.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/c7732d53-2e34-4fde-b5fb-6f45f114111f

    • “Putin warns of possible oil shortage due to lack of investment…

      “There could be a moment in the future when global demand for oil increases but there is no oil available, Putin said.”

      https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-warns-possible-oil-shortage-due-lack-investment-2021-10-2

      • “Climate policies could spark an ‘even worse’ energy crisis, Saudi finance minister says…

        ““If we are not careful about what we are doing to achieve our targets, we may end up having [a] very serious energy crisis like what we are seeing now, and it could be even worse in the future,” said Mohammed al-Jadaan, though he noted that climate policies are “very important.””

        https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/21/saudi-finance-minister-climate-policies-may-cause-a-worse-energy-crisis.html

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Across the front of the screen, “A very low oil price would cripple investment.”

          Exactly what I have been talking about.

      • ssincoski
        ssincoski says:

        Sometimes when I look around at the current stock of world ‘leaders’, he seems like one of the few ‘grownups’ in the room. Everyone else comes across as naïve or purposely ignorant.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Chronic underinvestment in the old economy: Sounds like what I was writing about.

  9. “Supply-Chain Crisis Fuels Latest Retreat From Globalization… The supply-chain crisis of 2021 is fueling the retreat from globalization, much as the global financial crisis of 2008 did.

    “Covid-19, climate and geopolitics shatter integrated global production, threatening to end an era of low costs and endless variety.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/supply-chain-crisis-fuels-latest-retreat-from-globalization-11634741616

    • “Biden says he’s considering deploying the National Guard to ease supply chain crisis.

      “President Joe Biden said Thursday evening he’s considering deploying the National Guard to help ease stress on the US supply chain as it prompts growing concern about the economy, prompting a White House official to swiftly throw cold water on the plan.”

      https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/21/politics/supply-chain-national-guard-trucking-joe-biden/index.html

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        It says, “The President said he would specifically consider calling up National Guard members for trucking to help solve a shortage of drivers “if we can’t move — increase the number of truckers, which we are in a process of doing.””

        Driving one of those big trucks requires training. There are lots of reasons it won’t happen.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This is the optimistic ending the WSJ comes up with:

      Just as the financial crisis drove banks and regulators to prioritize resilience over efficiency, the supply-chain crisis will likely result in production networks more resilient to surprises but less able to delight consumers with ever more choice at ever lower cost.

      Maybe, and maybe not. If supply is getting shorter, there will be more and more empty shelves, and more conflict over what is available.

  10. “Fears grow as UK factories hit by worst supply chain shortages since mid-70s…

    “The latest survey of 263 manufacturers, held against a backdrop of severe supply chain disruption caused by Covid and Brexit, also reported rising concern over staff shortages holding back industrial output over the coming months.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/oct/21/uk-factories-supply-chain-shortages-cbi-businesses-budget-spending-review

    • “Energy boss claims 20 more [UK] suppliers face bankruptcy over ‘£5bn’ price cap bill.

      “Scottish Power’s chief executive argues that the current market is unsustainable and could force a return to the days of only a ‘big six’ group of suppliers without urgent action.”

      https://news.sky.com/story/energy-boss-demands-price-cap-reform-as-firms-face-5bn-bill-for-market-mess-12439866

      • “U.K. Retail Sales Fall Unexpectedly in Longest Ever Weak Patch (despite panic buying of fuel)…

        “U.K retail sales fell unexpectedly for a fifth month as consumer confidence plunged, adding to evidence that the economic recovery is losing momentum.”

        https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-22/u-k-retail-sales-fall-unexpectedly-despite-panic-buying-of-fuel

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        The economy cannot withstand widely swinging prices.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      More supply chain problems.

  11. “Germany’s Inflation Dilemma Is a Threat to Europe…

    “After years of malaise, inflation is suddenly back as a real issue to consider. That puts pressure on the European Central Bank, which has kept base rates negative since 2014.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-10-22/germay-s-inflation-dilemma-could-reignite-europe-s-debt-crisis

    • “Poland vows not to give into EU ‘blackmail’ at summit…

      “”We will not act under blackmail pressure attempts,” the Polish PM said as he arrived at the EU summit in Brussels, where several leaders said they were concerned over Poland’s recent court ruling that questioned the primacy of EU law.”

      https://euobserver.com/democracy/153309

      • They joined a club that gives primacy to EU law, and then their own court, with the support of the government, rules that their own law is supreme. It is complete nonsense. They need to decide whether they want to be a part of the EU, with what that entails or not. It is a matter of pros and cons – make a decision and accept what it entails. Poland needs to choose between access to the single market and the supremacy of its own courts. They cannot have it both ways, and they always knew that. Now they decide to muck everyone around. Perhaps the EU will offer them a simple choice, to either accept the rules of the club or leave – take your pick, again, and then stick to the decision.

        • ssincoski
          ssincoski says:

          I agree (I live in Poland). For too long Poland has milked the EU while keeping its distance. It worked for a very long time. Accept EU money, keep own currency. That said, I think the majority of Poles would like to stay in the EU. PIS has to go!

          • worldofhanumanotg
            worldofhanumanotg says:

            The surplus value flowing* out of CEE for ~30yrs is likely way larger than various incoming streams for infrastructure etc.. Each case is slightly different, and Poland perhaps received more per capita than others, I hear your political affiliation, but lets keep it real.
            The quasi neocolonial status is a fact.

            __
            *
            suppressed wages and exchange rates, privatization schemes (banks, industries, ..), hostile market takeover of formerly domestic production (foreign chain supermarkets / malls, ..), ..

            • ssincoski
              ssincoski says:

              I have no doubt that the EU countries in the west got much more out of the deal. Why would they send so much money to open up CEE unless they were making a nice profit.

              Now, Tesco is closing out and I read recently that CarreFour is alos looking for a buyer.

            • worldofhanumanotg
              worldofhanumanotg says:

              The ~German chains won (Lidl, Aldi, Billa, Kaufland..) and the UK/FR team lost.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Let’s play a game … find the nearest spent fuel pond/nuclear power plant nearest you

            http://www.nuclear-transparency-watch.eu/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/carte_centrales_nucleaires_europe11.jpg

          • All courses are equally valid depending on what people want to achieve, what they are willing to do or to sacrifice to get it, and what the others will let them get away with.

            PIS can stay in the EU and accept ECJ, stay in and reject it, or leave. No course is a priori more valid than any other. Different courses are liable to irritate different people – but that is not necessarily a primary concern.

            Nationalist parties like PIS and the Tories feed off nationalist confrontation with foreigners and their powers. They get support and votes out of it. PIS may just be trying to stay in power by stirring up nationalist sentiments and resentments, the Tories too.

            The EU seems to prefer to keep them in the fold, perhaps with the consideration that governments tend to change. The next Polish government might take a different line. Certainly Poles want to stay in the EU and very few of them are minded to do a Brexit.

            None of us get to vote on laws anyway. It makes no difference to me per se whether the EU or the Tories get to make the laws. Many laws would likely be different if I had my way. The parties do what they want. They get a ‘mandate’ and go for it.

            I do not conflate ‘national sovereignty’ with personal autonomy in the way that many nationalists seem to. I certainly do not worship the British state or any of its institutions. To identify with the state is to be a subject of it, a servant, a useful patsy.

            I find PIS a bit irritating but I probably should not let it. It is not really my problem in any case. The Tories are very annoying, but I should certainly not let them stress me. It would be another party doing its thing if not them. There is very limited benefit to emotional involvement with the state and its parties.

        • worldofhanumanotg
          worldofhanumanotg says:

          The “primacy to EU law” is a myth or more precisely an obfuscation, it’s valid – applicable only in some chapters (articles) of the treaties. While at the same time there are also stipulation towards the goals of “ever closer union” aka further centralization of powers, contradiction..

          I’ll grant you the fact he who entered on its own volition Franco-German (INT bankers) project was a major fool and should pay accordingly for the mistake..

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Poland has coal it would like to use. I think that this is part of the controversy.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      According to the article,

      “A swing to tighter monetary and fiscal policy could reignite the region’s sovereign debt crisis.”

      No kidding! Throw in high priced imported fuel, and there is a major problem ahead.

  12. “Energy Crisis Exposes EU Tensions With Few Solutions for Leaders.

    “Soaring energy prices are exacerbating divisions in the European Union as national leaders brace for heated talks about how to protect the most vulnerable and avoid a backlash against the bloc’s ambitious climate change plan.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-21/energy-crisis-exposes-eu-tensions-with-few-solutions-for-leaders

  13. “Oil Refining Renaissance Under Threat From Natural Gas Crisis.

    “Surging prices for natural gas are threatening to eat up the profit some oil refiners are making on their fuels, forcing them to cut processing rates and even altering normal crude-buying patterns.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-21/oil-refining-renaissance-under-threat-from-natural-gas-crisis

    • “Oil refinery woes raise concern in Westminster over financial backers.

      “The panic-buying of petrol and diesel that gripped Britain in September served as an unwelcome reminder of how disruption to supplies can rapidly escalate into crisis. But while the long queues on forecourts have gradually receded, concerns persist about the finances of refineries supplying about 25% of fuel.”

      https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/oct/21/oil-refinery-concern-westminster-financial-backers

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        I hope that these refineries don’t need to buy natural gas to operate. If they do, their costs will be very high relative to what they can probably get buyers to pay for their finished products.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The crisis with respect to natural gas used in refining is mostly in Europe. While natural gas prices have rising in the US, it has been from a much lower base.

      I am guessing that refining of the oil that needs the extra processing using hydrogen (set loose using natural gas) will increasingly move to the US from Europe.

  14. “The global energy crisis could escalate into a world food crisis leading to famine in vulnerable countries unless urgent action is taken, one of the world’s biggest producers of fertiliser has warned.

    “Svein Tore Holsether, the chief executive of Yara, which produces 8.6m tonnes of the key fertiliser ingredient ammonia annually, said high gas costs meant it was curbing production in Europe by 40%.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/oct/20/global-energy-crisis-famine-production

    • “The food crisis that occurs periodically in individual states and entire regions may grow in the near future and reach extreme forms, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a plenary session of the Valdai International Discussion Club.”

      https://tass.com/society/1352753

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Lack of fertilizer will be a big problem going forward.

  15. jodytishmack
    jodytishmack says:

    Gail, you are correct. A self-organizing system develops emergent behaviors that cannot be predicted nor recreated if the system fails. Chaos theory might have answers, but as far as I know this is still true.

    Every system that develops the power to self-organize grows in complexity. Eventually the more complexity in the system the more energy is required to simply repair and maintain itself and growth or additional complexity ceases. Most biological systems strive for stability rather than growth. A large input of food might temporarily result in a larger population of say rabbits, which will temporarily increase the population of hawks, but eventually a balance is restored with supply and demand, predator and prey reaching a stable population. If it doesn’t then over killing results in collapse of the prey population.

    Humans, with our tool making learned to exploit very efficiently. Language helped us pass what we learned to our young. Collective thinking and acting improved our ability to thrive and exploit our environment. Since the ending of the last ice age humans have learned to extract energy from their environment in new and every increasing complexity. Wood, whale oil, coal, oil and gas…each form of fuel fed our technological inventions.

    Fossil energy was the most portable and concentrated energy source we have used to date. It largely made possible the increasing exploitation of natural resources, the expansion of our population, and now, the pollution that has caused ecosystems to collapse and climate to change.

    When we talk of ‘saving the system’ I think the answer is pretty straightforward. We cannot save our current system. Our current highly interconnected, global economy (and the human population it supported) cannot be saved with renewable energy. There is not even a guarantee that the human species can be saved from the massive extinction event underway. Our population is going to decline, our lifestyle is going to collapse, and only questions are, how fast and what can we as individuals or small groups do to perhaps increase our survival rate (if even for a short period)?

    The only answer that seems obvious to me is that individuals and small groups will need to focus on stability and resilience in the short term. For example, if you avoid debt, pay off debt as quickly as possible, you won’t lose your home. Install some solar energy and you can maintain power to your home even if the grid goes down. Learn to grow food, harvest wild food, hunt, etc. and preserve what you can when the season allows. Buy well made hand tools and learn to repair things. Find peace and happiness in more simple pursuits, such as reading books, bird watching, wood working, cooking, or sewing.

    Again, what system, what lifestyle are we trying to save? Is our current corporate controlled, debt fueled, working poverty, and unhealthy lifestyles really worth saving? Humans created many civilizations before we learned to exploit fossil energy and once the human population declines precipitously, we may be able to do so again…once ecosystem heal and begin to produce again.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Thanks for your fine comment. (I added spaces between paragraphs to enhance readability.)

      Regarding adding solar panels, I would caution against this. The solar panels are of value to you only if they are not connected to the electric grid. You will also need batteries and an inverter. If you plan to try to supply some portion of your household energy with these panels, you likely need small appliances that operate on direct current. Even with this arrangement, it is unlikely that you will be able to do much in winter, unless you are near the equator. You will likely need to greatly overbuild your solar panels, and thus your batteries, to get very effective coverage from them.

      Adding these solar panels, in many places, will make your home look attractive to thieves. “These are rich folks, who have lots of money to sink into solar panels.” Also, with failing water, electricity and trash services, you may very well want to move elsewhere. It will be very hard to take the solar panels and batteries along.

      You might be better off using the money to buy tools for growing your own food. Also, you likely need to be considering how you will obtain water.

      • jodytishmack
        jodytishmack says:

        We invested in solar panels, an inverter, and batteries ten years ago. We also were fortunate to find an earth-bermed home located on 5 acres of mostly wooded land on the edge of our small (<150,000 pop.) urban environment. Our home has both ground source heat pump and wood burning technology in the fireplace that allow us to generate heat in winter from burning wood. The home is all electric with all lighting now LED. We have made our home very energy efficient and secure. We did all this because we were in a financial position to do so. I fully recognize that not everyone is in such a good position.
        I also agree that at the very least securing sources of food and water will help. I don't have any evidence to support my 'feeling' but I feel that a sudden collapse of our society will now happen very quickly and many will die simply from lack of the basic necessities, medicine, or violence. If our grid were to suddenly go down and stay down people will lose communication, businesses will lose the ability to sell goods or restock shelves, gas stations will empty and people will only be able to travel as far as they can walk. 80% of Americans live in large urban environments. Death and starvation will rapidly deplete the population and in the absence of communication, access to resources, disease will take over.
        If this proves to be an accurate version of 'collapse' the first 30 days will be the most critical. After that it will depend on what people are willing and able to do to secure their supplies and replenish them. I find movies that depict the "Mad Max" scenario show gangs living in environments with all their machines and hoarded gasoline, terrorizing others. Interestingly there is never any obvious source of food, cooking, healers, or repairs going on. It is a fantasy that I don't think will play out. The reality will be living with fear and death, which I believe will overwhelm most people and cause them to simply give up.

        • your analysis is pretty much spot on Jody.

          I’ve read your comments over the years, I think you are very fortunate is establishing the situation you are in. And being so grounded about it.

          Ten years ago, when I started blathering on about all this, I used to be asked two questions:

          Q1—So what’s the answer then??–My answer——-: There isn’t one. At least in the sense of wanting BAU

          Q2… When? My answer , ——-(from 10 years ago) Mid 2020s. That seems to be right on schedule.

          Given that I forecast (in 2011) a fascist POTUS for 2016, I think I can be allowed another forecast now:

          Biden will fail in what he is trying to do. Not because of inability, but because the (energy) means isn’t available to do it. And vested interests will prevent it anyway.
          People are demanding energy that simply isn’t there. MAGA is a myth, but no one can accept that.
          Democrats will lose in 2024. Voters will elect whoever promises to bring back the American Dream. Even if it is a Ponzi salesman.

          Whether Trump is re-elected will make little difference to the future, because collapse is built in.

          In the face of collapse, the GOP president will have to take emergency powers. It might be trump, or somebody who actually knows what he’s doing. Those powers will be permanent, because collapse will have no recovery point.

          So in 2025, American fascism will take hold, as voted for by the American people. As conditions worsen, so the fascist rule will worsen–particularly for ‘lesser people.’,

          (and this won’t be an exclusively American phenomenon.) Energy depletion makes people desperate and violent.–as you anticipate.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Where is the nearest nuclear power station? That will help you calculate how long you will be alive once BAU ends

          http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sj08HhAhCbI/U5fonU1VlFI/AAAAAAAAAu4/_t36SAYS5cc/s1600/Chernobyl+Plume.jpg

          This is a best case scenario before the plume arrives https://www.quora.com/What-would-the-world-be-like-if-society-collapsed

      • Dennis L. says:

        “Adding these solar panels, in many places, will make your home look attractive to thieves.”

        Good point,

        Dennis L.

      • JesseJames says:

        I have a large visible home in a rural area. Ground mount Solar arrays can be seen unfortunately. I plan the following. If the grid is down for an extended period, or forever, I will be the only power around, given my battery BU system. The county sheriff will probably be glad to put a mobile post at my place, and continue operations using free power for radio transmissions, night and day. This Will also provide security at the same time.

        There are only, plans, preps and contingencies. Prepare accordingly.

        Next up….a solar water heater.

      • Xabier says:

        I agree Gail: I cultivate an appearance of not being worth robbing.

        The inside is quite different, but only the most trusted get that far.

        I also have a set of ‘collapse clothes’, basically poor farm worker, and am heavily armed, so far as the law here admits.

        I do not expect to survive for long, but nor do I wish to be ‘easy meat’…

        • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
          Ed says:

          It does not take much piano wire
          stay away for the little old book binder with the garrote

      • artleads says:

        I hear you with the solar panels. Ours are hooked to the grid, so I’m obliged to take grid maintenance seriously. And without the grid, water from the town well can’t be pumped. It’s infuriating that the people running the water system believe the grid will miraculously always be there. Our house is not at all spiffy, so maybe having the panels will prevail against us looking like trash. We have roof catchment tanks whose functionality is questionable. Most enjoyable is the 100 gal plastic drum that collects water somehow from a leaking gutter. Just scooping water out of it when full serves to MOL do some basic service. Glad we have pipe water, but we could perhaps get by on scooping out water (when not frozen).

    • ssincoski
      ssincoski says:

      As Gail mentioned below, very fine post. I am on similar track. We have solar hot water and I will probably buy small, portable PV system this year just to experiment. We had a big wind storm come thru last night and we lost electricity. When I walked down the street to check if neighbours had power (who installed PV) it was obvious to me that they were grid connected. They had no lights on, and were running a generator. I’m looking at small off-grid systems.

      • jodytishmack
        jodytishmack says:

        I am grid tied and have battery back up. The grid tie allows us to send excess energy out to the grid and take energy back from the grid under a net metering policy. We only pay for electricity in excess of what we send out. It saves on our batteries. The system automatically switches to batteries if the grid goes down and I have a switch that allows me to disconnect from the grid if I should choose to do so. People who are only grid tied cannot draw energy from their panels if the grid is down. They don’t have an automatic cut off switch when the grid goes down and because of this they are shut off. This is necessary because when linemen are repairing downed electrical lines they can be electrocuted if energy is being pushed onto the grid from homeowners.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Looked at from your own perspective, the arrangement sounds good.

          Unfortunately, the arrangement you have is harmful to the electric system. You are not paying nearly enough for the services you are getting from the electric grid. Pretty much all your system replaces from the grid’s point of view is the fuel it would take to make the electricity it provides. This is only a small share of the credit you are given. There are more transmission lines to maintain, acting to raise the grid electricity providers costs.

          • jodytishmack
            jodytishmack says:

            Every customer pays the same price to be connected to the grid. That fee is supposed to go towards maintenance of the grid and lines and every customer pays the same irregardless of how much electricity they use. I don’t see how my use of electricity causes more harm to the grid than any other customer?

            In fact I see two significant benefits for the electric company from the arrangement.
            First, we generate the most excess electricity during peak electricity demand period, in the middle of the day during the summer when A/C loads are highest. Most power plants have to either buy very expensive electricity to supply this demand, or build additional power plant capacity for this intermittent demand. At night, when we take back a portion of the electricity we generated during the day, the demand is lower and it isn’t a problem for power plants to generate it. By supplying electricity to the grid during peak demand, we are reducing the cost to supply electricity during this period.
            Second, when we send electricity out it goes to our nearest neighbor consuming electricity. We feed our neighbors up the line until all the excess is consumed. The loss on transmission is negligent compared to the 10 to 17% loss on transmission when a power plant sends out electricity to its customers. For every kilowatt we send out, the power company actually sells nearly 100% of it, thus they gain 10 to 17% in revenue compared to sending my neighbors electricity from a power plant.
            A smart grid system has no difficulty monitoring the exchange, and this is why the electric company has installed smart meters on our home. They closely monitor how much energy grid connected renewable energy customers are producing.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Creepy Things You Didn’t Know About Radiation Poisoning

      Radiation poisoning is just one of many horrible ways to perish, but it’s particularly gruesome. Name an awful symptom, and chances are, it’s something you’ll experience while slowly perishing of radiation poisoning. (It’s almost always slow, too: Even the worst cases involve almost two days of unbelievable suffering.)

      But there are also unexpected little details about the agony you’ll experience while slowly succumbing. Because of the almost otherworldly properties of radioactive materials, the specifics of it all can get pretty creepy. If you can stomach it, read on for more fascinating radiation poisoning facts.

      You’ll Suffer From Massive Internal Bleeding

      In 1987, residents of Goiânia, Brazil, became mysteriously ill three days after accidentally coming into contact with a “sparkling, glowing blue powder” from a broken radiation therapy machine at an abandoned hospital.

      One of the many symptoms probably suffered by the villagers was internal bleeding, and not just of the stomach or other organs. Radiation exposure often leads to bleeding of the nose, gums, and rectum.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Vomiting Within An Hour Of Exposure Means You’ll Likely Perish

      While ostensibly gross, there’s nothing inherently creepy about vomiting. But if you suspect that you’ve inadvertently exposed yourself to high levels of radiation, vomiting quickly becomes the creepiest thing on the planet.

      Vomiting within an hour of exposure is basically the Grim Reaper picking your number. Yep, you’re likely to perish if it starts that quick. Then again, another sign of radiation sickness is starting to feel better… before feeling a whole lot worse, sometimes even weeks later.

      You Could Lose 20 Liters Of Bodily Fluids Per Day

      Hisashi Ouchi was working at a uranium processing facility in Tokaimura, Japan, in 1999 when an accident exposed him to neutron beams – “the most powerful form of radioactive energy” – that would ultimately take his life.

      He “lived” for 83 days, kept alive by machines, losing 20 liters of body fluids per day. His skin almost completely fell off; what was left of it was blackened and blistered. He lost the ability to generate blood cells, white blood cells, and platelets. Despite multiple grafts, transfusions, and transplants, he eventually perished of “multiple organ failure.”

    • Fast Eddy says:

      You’ll Shake So Much You’ll Have To Be Restrained

      Chemist Cecil Kelley perished of radiation poisoning at Los Alamos following a plutonium mixing accident in 1958. The account of the horrific 35 hours he spent struggling to live after the accident is a must-read (if you’re into that kind of thing).

      Kelley exhibited the now-classic symptoms of severe acute radiation syndrome, including a shaking fit so aggressive that he had to be restrained (that never happens in Fallout). Other disturbing details: His vomit and feces were radioactive, too; the first nurse that tended to him remarked (not knowing what had happened) on his “nice pink skin” (actually a radiation “sunburn” called erythema); and his bone marrow was watery instead of bloody after he perished.

      You’ll Swell So Much That They’ll Have To Saw Your Wedding Ring Off

      Robert Peabody was the first-ever victim of radiation poisoning in New England following an accident at the Wood River Junction facility in Rhode Island in 1964. He was hit with “more radiation than anyone outside of Hiroshima or Nagasaki,” and his left hand, directly exposed to the reaction, swelled so much that they had to saw his wedding ring off (against his wishes).

      That gold wedding ring was later examined and it was discovered to have been hit with the radioactive equivalent of “700,000 chest X-rays.” His wife was later given his ashes, but she didn’t believe they were his: They were tested and weren’t at all radioactive.

      Small Blood Spots Can Appear All Over Your Face And Body

      The horrors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki left behind extraordinarily detailed and chilling accounts of what it’s like to perish from radiation exposure. A 21-year-old Japanese soldier who was about 1 kilometer from the Nagasaki blast, for example, went through absolute hell in the weeks that followed.

      His hair fell out, his gums bled, and “purple spots of hypodermal bleeding” appeared all over his face and body. In layman’s terms, small pockets of blood started to appear just under the surface of his skin. He perished less than a month after the blast, delirious and with his throat practically swollen shut.

      https://www.ranker.com/list/radiation-facts/kellen-perry

  16. MG says:

    What is Russia – interesting documentaries of SRF:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-6F1MARgy0

    E.g. showing an oligarch mining gold in Siberia who built a monument for the annexation of Crimea.

    Approximately 38:00 – 41:00

  17. Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
    Ed says:

    May be I am being overly sensitive if I go to have a banner printed at the standard places
    Staples, Walmart, UPS
    I find they only offer pre-planned banner for approved thoughts!!!
    It did not used to be like this. Man they are thorough.

    I did find a local store that allows free form banners.

  18. Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
    Ed says:

    Disregard for contract law is now the norm. Chicago will not pay police retirement benefits as contracted for in the written contract if they retire to avoid vax.

    On a far smaller scale. I bought two tickets for Morgan James at the Infinity Music Hall in Norfolk CT. After the purchase they added the requirement of vax passport. They refuse a refund as the tickets are no refund. But no refund applies if I change the terms not if the seller changes the terms.

    I am having a banner printed 2 feet by 3 feet tall.

    Infinity Music Hall is racist against Native Americans and POC

    Boycott please

    Mashantucket Pequots for Health Freedom

  19. Fast Eddy says:

    URGENT: Covid vaccines will keep you from acquiring full immunity EVEN IF YOU ARE INFECTED AND RECOVER

    Alex Berenson 2 hr ago

    Don’t take it from me, I don’t even get to tweet anymore.

    Take it from a little place I call the British government. Which admitted today, in its newest vaccine surveillance report, that:

    “N antibody levels appear to be lower in people who acquire infection following two doses of vaccination.” (Page 23)

    What’s this mean? Several things, all bad. We know the vaccines do not stop infection or transmission of the virus (in fact, the report shows elsewhere that vaccinated adults are now being infected at much HIGHER rates than the unvaccinated).

    What the British are saying is they are now finding the vaccine interferes with your body’s innate ability after infection to produce antibodies against not just the spike protein but other pieces of the virus. Specifically, vaccinated people don’t seem to be producing antibodies to the nucleocapsid protein, the shell of the virus, which are a crucial part of the response in unvaccinated people.

    This means vaccinated people will be far more vulnerable to mutations in the spike protein EVEN AFTER THEY HAVE BEEN INFECTED AND RECOVERED ONCE (or more than once, probably).

    It also means the virus is likely to select for mutations that go in exactly that direction, because those will essentially give it an enormous vulnerable population to infect. And it probably is still more evidence the vaccines may interfere with the development of robust long-term immunity post-infection.

    Aside from that, everything is fine.

    SOURCE:

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027511/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-42.pdf

    • Sam says:

      Where does it say that if you are infected and recover and get vaccine you are not immune anymore? First of all any study right now I am very skeptical even if it says what I want! And you should be too…..I thought you were smarter than that. but I guess if it fits what you want to hear….

      They made a lot of false positives so that it looked like there was more cases than there was. There are people going around saying I had it and I didn’t even know…..Yes! that’s because you didn’t have it!!! If you don’t have a strong infection then your body does not build up the Anti bodies!!! No one is studying this!

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I will have to admit that this is strange. I am wondering if the order makes a difference.

      1. My guess is that when people who are vaccinated catch COVID, they get such a light case that it doesn’t result in good quality antibodies. Having the partial antibodies may interfere with making good antibodies later.

      2. If they had caught COVID first, and then had the vaccination, my guess is that they would have had a bad reaction to the vaccine, but their original antibodies would still have been available, so the antibody result would have been the same.

  20. Fast Eddy says:

    Thanks norm… we already knew … but good that you also know

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Yes, indeed. The title is “91 Research Studies Affirm Naturally Acquired Immunity to Covid-19: Documented, Linked, and Quoted.”

      Thanks very much.

  21. I think that it may have been Tim who asked me about where we are now as a civilisation in terms of Plato’s cyclic theory of politics, and I was loath really to conform an analysis to that particular conception. I am personally not particularly ‘into’ Plato, and the whole ‘idealism’ and ‘dialectic’ thing.

    Anyway, this brief discussion of the subject may be found interesting on that question, beginning at around 1:05:00 onwards.

    In short, it is argued that a thoroughly worked out ‘equality’ undermines the functionality of free democracy itself, and that USA may arguably be reaching that point.

    The entire talk is interesting, and it perspectivises the brief discussion of that point at the end. Maybe listen to the end part, and then maybe listen through the whole thing.

    https://www.spiked-online.com/podcast-episode/how-the-rebels-became-the-censors/

    > How the rebels became the censors

    Andrew Sullivan talks to Brendan O’Neill about the authoritarian turn in progressive politics.

    • It would be noticeable if such an hypothesised culmination and decline of democracy corresponded temporally with the equivalent moment in the development of industrialism – corresponding ‘moments’ of the energetic and material base and the ideological superstructure – that ‘free democracy’ reaches its exhaustion and approaches its transformation into less ‘liberal, tolerant’ power structures just as industrialism reaches its point of self-negation in energetic exhaustion.

      From the ‘epiphenomenal dissipative’ perspective, in which dissipative structures like economic societies form and reform as the flow of energy increases and decreases, and ideology reflects that reformation in a largely secondary manner, it might be expected both that the ideology would ‘mirror’ the energetic and material development, and that a reformed dissipative structure with a much lower energy flow than now would be less hospital to ‘free democracy’ and more accommodative of the more overt stratification that is the norm in all prior societies.

      What perhaps would be surprising would be that the ideological superstructure ‘anticipates’ the developments of the base, such as to develop ideological tendencies that will become more pronounced once the change in the base is more profound than it is now, and which do not appear to be particularly ‘justified’ now by the current state of the base – that would tend to reinforce the impression that ideological changes are ‘secondary’, ‘epiphenomenal’ in the sense of political philosophy (not causal of the social structure but reflective of it), to the base in a largely unconscious way.

      It would be almost as if the dissipative structure that is economic society ‘knows’ where it is headed, what sort of ideology it will ‘need’ in the future, and it is preparing the ideological tendencies now that it does not need now but it will need in the near future. Anyway, that smacks of quasi-mysticism, and it would be very difficult to ‘prove’, however much the theory has got going for it as an explanatory, and ‘anticipatory’, tool. Thus it is a curious theory, that may ‘fit’ a curious apparent correlation, nothing more.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I listened to a little of this from 1:05 on. Now, society seems to have reached a situation where any kind of hierarchy is frowned upon. All differences must be erased, whether between men and women, children and adults, citizens and foreigners, Black and White.

      I think that part of the problem is that with not enough energy to go around, wealth disparity has the top 0.01% is terribly high relative to everyone else. At the same time, it is clear that there are very many very poor people. With so much built in disparity now, the only path forward seems to be trying to lift up the many very poor. Democracy isn’t working, maybe some sort of socialism will fix it. Actually, it needs a whole lot more energy per capita.

      • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
        Ed says:

        Gail, yes more energy per capita. Sadly, since they do not know how to fix it it will never be said. Thoughts and plans unconnected from the physical reality will be pushed until the lights go out.

        • There cannot be socio-economic ‘equality’ without massive social mobility, which the USA economy simply cannot support. They can tinker about with ideology all they like, saying what are the ‘correct’ phrases to use, and going on about how American social history constrains people in the present (slavery, segregation etc.) – but it will not change the socio-economic reality of stunted material progress.

          It would take loads of cheap energy, and striking technological advances, to improve labour productivity and to make any difference to the actual wealth of people. With constricted overall economic progress, social mobility will amount to no more than some people swapping places with others – and the result will be just as much wealth inequality as before.

          As you say, bourgeois industrial society is not about to admit that, and it prefers to prattle on about inconsequential ideological reforms – as if all of society’s problems and limitations can be overcome in the realm of ideas. Really, it is bonkers, it is a retreat from the energetic and material situation, from socio-economic reality, into the realm of make-believe and fantasy.

          USA ‘democracy’ has had its day, in so far as it only really makes sense in a situation where improvement is possible. Otherwise, it is aspiration without concrete results. If the ‘American dream’ is dead, then USA democracy is pretty pointless too. And, the ideological revolutions become more and more senseless and authoritarian. The whole thing gets ‘moralised’ into ‘are you a good person with the right attitudes’ – which is complete nonsense.

          Social reality is not changed through attitudes. USA has an aggressive turning inward against the citizens as free autonomous agents with their own ideas and attitudes. It is shifting the ‘blame’ for collapsed social mobility onto the ordinary citizens – when the real problem is energetic and material. The society scapegoats its citizens for its own socio-economic failures.

          States much prefer to blame and to attack their own citizens than to admit that they have failed, however inevitable that failure may have been. It is no one’s fault that fossil fuels and industrialism are confined by the finite limits of the world – not the fault of citizens and not of states either, it is just how it goes. But states are never going to admit that stuff. They prefer to torture citizens with endless ideological nonsense and blame games. USA is basically insane now, but societies generally are.

    • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
      Ed says:

      There were and are no rebels in America. There are petulant children. There are no adults left in the room.

      • Totally. There will not be a rebellion in America. People in the 1920s and 30s were much tougher and they didn’t rebel either. Let alone now. Muppets!!!

      • jodytishmack
        jodytishmack says:

        I would argue that America is now filled with rebellious children. People seem to think (or at least act) as if they can say and do whatever they want…and there will be no consequences. People can base their actions on belief in faulty, wrong, or just plain bad information and there will be no consequences. People believe they are entitled to think and act this way and no one should have the right to prevent them from doing so.
        I think there are adults left in the room, but we have little power to change the mindset of these rebellious children. Our government and institutions don’t seem capable of controlling them, in fact one could argue that government has become infected with the same irrational, childish behavior. I’m not sure where this behavior is leading us, but I have a strong sense that the results will not be pleasant.

    • Tim Groves says:

      Thank you, Mirror. I used to read quite a bit of Andrew Sullivan when he was an active blogger. Also, during the run up to Brexit I became familiar with Brendan O’Neil. I can’t always share their passions or agree with their views, but at least they both make sense when they talk.

  22. Hi Gail thanks for your extended piece on complexity. I think you are right and I will no doubt come back to it with concrete examples of how this is shaped in France and the Netherlands.

    At the same time I have two questions for you, hopefully you will answer them.

    What do you think of the following theory about the ‘price development’ of energy in recent years.

    1. You rightly observe and that is an important observation that the ‘energy price’ has been manipulated by the ‘financials’. You give examples of this about the periods 1970/80 etc. Fear of depletion, fear of affordability and finally ‘fear of climate change’ have, according to your analysis, driven the price. I subscribe to that analysis.

    2. These are in fact however you turn it ‘psychological categories’. Fear of the ‘club of Rome….our ‘finite world’. Fear of shortages, fear of climate change, of corona etc. ‘

    3.The disruptive factor of climate change/corona and ‘the end of times’ have ensured that the nevertheless perverse pricing system of fossil energy in particular has entered a downward spiral so that the very thing that should cause ‘fear’ has been turned into its opposite.
    All sorts of weird subsidy and pricing mechanisms have come into play that should warn us, but achieved the opposite.
    The prices of fossil fuels became so low that everyone had more of them at their disposal for ever lower costs….. and legitimately made use of them in a parade of bogus arguments and bogus solutions.

    4. The years before the so-called corona crisis brought an unprecedented explosion of ‘global tourism’, ‘Elon Musk’ madness, hybridization, isolation economics, sustainability ideology madness etc etc. A true ‘economic revival precisely as a result of the ‘disruptive’ elements that are well and truly part of the ‘Ponzi system’ of the financials. Faites vos jeux….rien ne va plus

    5. The so-called corona crisis is having a similar effect, at least in the EU for now. People have never saved so much and the Eu states have never borrowed so much… There is no sign of an economic crisis here. Indeed there are many problems but for now ‘everyone’ I know is happily consuming.

    6. You plead for a realistic determination of ‘energy chains’ from ‘beginning to end’ from coal, via oil and gas and uranium extraction to waste storage and processing’ from gas extraction to damage due to soil subsidence’ as very topical in the Netherlands, from coal extraction to compensation for ‘colleteral dammage’ in mining and smog! From windmills to distribution, the same for electrification in a broader sense, etc. However, that is never going to!!! happen.

    7. In complex systems, there are always ‘disruptive’ ideas and fear systems of any kind that will prevent the ‘anomalies’, ‘paradoxes’ and ‘fault lines’ from actually being named. Drugs and health crises like corona are two of them, but there are undoubtedly more to be named.

    8. As a Phd in philosophy, I have always been very interested in the extrapolation of Thoams Kuhn’s theories ‘the structure of scientific revolution’ and the collapse of ‘dialectical materialism’. I lectured on it for a while at the University of Amsterdam in the late 1970s. When do ‘systems’ what so ever fall into disrepair and need to be replaced by ‘something new’. The Senaca fall describes such a ‘decline’. … but yes who cares…. ? What matters is what happens next! No one can predict that…not even Nicholas Taleb, with his ‘unreadable’ stochastic, but highly interesting literature.

    9. In summary, I have two questions …. do you agree with me that fear-based extrapolated ideas to the ‘financial paradigms of the shareholders society including the ‘disruptive renewables’ actually saved us from the ‘Senecafall’ from the 1970s onwards? And the second question is really what is the scope of your message…?
    What does it profit who and why to become aware of the ‘real and at the same time unfeasible price we should pay for our fossil fuels?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The economy is a self-organizing systems powered by energy. As such, it behaves as if it has a life of its own. This life at some point has to come to an end, just as the “life” of a hurricane or human plant comes to an end.

      Within an economy, there is never just one cause for things that happen; there are a combination of many causes that work together to create the changes that take place. I think that the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991 played a central role in tipping the balance of who got benefit of the energy resources away from the Soviet Union. There were a lot of things that entered into this collapse: the chronic low price of oil in the 1980s; the inefficiency with which the Soviet Union used the energy resources available to it. The cold climate of the Russia may have played a role as well, and the debt that could not repaid. Central planning did not produce a good outcome, either. The fact that this oil was left in the ground for later helped, as much as anything, to put off collapse.

      Adding China, with all of its coal, to the World Trade Organization in 2001 was a second major thing that put off collapse. It gave the world a whole lot more cheap energy, with which to expand. Cheap coal helped offset the high price of oil.

      Renewables played somewhat of a role, too. They gave an excuse for people not to look at the fossil fuel depletion problem at hand. Adding a whole lot of wind and solar, and pricing them by time of day, tended to hold down electricity prices as well as coal and natural gas prices. With these low prices, consumers were able to use more of them, even as producers were being driven out of business.

      I think added efficiency was perhaps more helpful in getting along with less fossil fuels, then the addition of wind and solar. They are mostly a very expensive substitute for fuel with respect to generating electricity. Time of day pricing especially drives paid-for nuclear power plants out of business. In the longer run, it drives coal and natural gas out of business too. In fact, the whole economy tends to collapse, without needed energy.

      So, I don’t think I really agree with you about “fear-based extrapolated ideas to the ‘financial paradigms of the shareholders society including the ‘disruptive renewables’ actually saved us from the ‘Senecafall’ from the 1970s onwards.” There were a lot of things that saved us from early collapse. In fact, no one had suggested a collapse might come that early.

      Regarding the scope of my message, I am trying to figure out what is going on and why. I am not convinced that we can really “fix” a self-organizing system, whether we want to or not. I am fairly convinced that there is a Higher Power that is ultimately the force behind all of this energy and all of these self-organizing systems. I think there is considerable evidence of some form of life after death, not here on Earth, but somehow in a different form of reality. It comes to all people, not just those with a particular religious belief.

      Whether or not there is anything we can fix on Earth, I don’t really know. Maybe we can understand why there is such a wide disparity in political beliefs now. It really is because there are not, and cannot be, enough goods and services to go around.

      We can look at the countries enacting carbon taxes as say to ourselves, “How nice of them! They have decided not to cut back on buying fossil fuel imports, so the rest of the world can have more. If they do this, it may allow the rest of the world to have more. It is like the EU is volunteering to break up like the Soviet Union.” They tell themselves a nice story about preventing climate change, but they are really giving a gift of more fossil fuels to import to the more efficient economies of the world.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I wonder what Fast Eddy’s role will be in all of this

        • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
          Ed says:

          In NZ the most locked down most whipped country in the world. Eddy my guess you are white not an ideal choice for this cull.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            I am not talking about that (and btw the majority is white… and the non whites are from what I can see mostly obese diabetes ridden)

            I am talking about Fast Eddy’s role with respect to the great power that Gail mentions….

            • I always assumed you *were* the Higher Power, Eddy… Or at least the human embodiment of it.

              In all seriousness, I agree with Gail’s interpretation; I’ve had odd experiences while doing ‘jhana’ meditation, and while completely sober, so I would never rule out the possibility of perennial truth or consciousness-beyond-death.

        • Bobby says:

          Like the rest of us, you are here to utilise and dissipate available energy, convert pre-existing ordered structures into disordered or subtle more (sometimes abstract) highly ordered ones and in so doing, prevent your own inevitable demise as long as possible. At the same time you are required to give the products of your life back to the ecosystem, including your thoughts, humour, company, attitudes, effort/work and cooking. (please include your moans and grown(s) too)…in other words life is like a bit of a game and at the same time a fulfilling hormonal joke,. but due to totally foreseen, unforeseen circumstances, we are about to run out of easily obtainable and perhaps soon unobtainable abundant energy. The challenge level of the game gets a little more exciting from this point on Please continue to avoid equilibrium and rigor mortis at all costs…you have been doing very well so far! Keep up your efforts. Good luck and please don’t forget to pay your xxx

      • drb753
        drb says:

        A minor point about the collapse of USSR: it was the low price of oil as you said, and the debt, but also a temporary decline in oil production starting in 1987 (and going back up above the 1987 level about 1997). Then there was Chernobyl. Not only it consumed enormous resources to fix, it also left a big regional hole for electricity production.

        • worldofhanumanotg
          worldofhanumanotg says:

          +organizational factor: sequence of total morons at the helm (peaking with Gorbi) – Yeltsin was merely the post after effect robber baron, nevertheless with the touch of gods (enabling the proper figure for revival)..

  23. hillcountry – retired electronics manufacturing engineer
    hillcountry says:

    Here’s a top-notch multi-species Regenerative operation in Georgia. It would be nice to be living somewhere nearby when the going gets tough. Wouldn’t mind riding-fence there either if it came to it.

    https://whiteoakpastures.com/

    • Hideaway says:

      From there web page …. “Using only sun, soil and rain” …..

      …which means it is not regenerative at all, they are mining the soil which will work until Leibig’s law of the minimum kicks in for some type of important mineral.

      The only true type of regenerative ag is one where all the human wastes are returned to the farm, which means the ‘eaters’ remain on the land, returning all minerals back to the soil throughout and at the end of their lives.

      Even transporting all human wastes back to the land involves FF so is not a long term solution.

      Throughout history civilizations have coll.apsed because the soil was not returning the yield needed to keep the city going. The ancients didn’t realise`they were mining the soil, we do, but some think it is a solution anyway.

      • info says:

        “The only true type of regenerative ag is one where all the human wastes are returned to the farm, which means the ‘eaters’ remain on the land, returning all minerals back to the soil throughout and at the end of their lives.”

        Asian Civilizations managed to do this sustainably. And maintain their historically high population density.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        The humans really need to be working the soil themselves.

  24. jj says:

    A interesting covid origins video from sky news Australia with some interviews with the likes of Trump and Pompao. Its a “expose” slam piece on China that of course ignores the NIH grants and USA Dazak-Fauci research. Not that Chinas hand wasnt in the development you could make the argument they were the star player. I just guess that this is a team sport in more ways than one. I enjoyed the video clips of wuhan. Looks a bit more upscale than Detroit. It also gave me a better sense of the Australian-China divide kabuki theater.

    I wont hold my breath for a “investigative journalist” piece on the suppression of ivermectin.

  25. Covid Treatment Guidelines – NIH

    Last Updated: July 08, 2021

    Table 2e. Characteristics of Antiviral Agents That Are Approved or Under Evaluation for the Treatment of COVID-19

    Dosing Regimens
    The doses listed here are for approved indications or from reported experiences or clinical trials.

    Ivermectin

    Adults:

    The dose most commonly used in clinical trials is IVM 0.2–0.6 mg/kg PO given as a single dose or as a once-daily dose for up to 5 days.

    Adverse Events:

    Generally well tolerated
    Dizziness
    Pruritis
    GI effects (e.g., nausea, diarrhea)
    Neurological AEs have been reported when IVM has been used to treat parasitic diseases, but it is not clear whether these AEs were caused by IVM or the underlying conditions.

    Monitoring Parameters:

    Monitor for potential AEs.

    Drug-Drug Interaction Potential:

    Minor CYP3A4 substrate
    P-gp substrate

    Comments and Links to Clinical Trials:

    Generally given on an empty stomach with water; however, administering IVM with food increases its bioavailability. A list of clinical trials is available here: Ivermectin

    https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/tables/table-2e/

    How about that?

    Once again, “Last Updated: July 08, 2021.”

    And again, “Last Updated: July 08, 2021.”

    Remember, “Last Updated: July 08, 2021.”

    How is it that the “vaccines” continue to maintain their Emergency Use Authorization status?

    • drb753
      drb says:

      Incredible, and great find. What does PO mean? I assume is the weight of the patient in kg, but I could not figure it out..

    • jj says:

      “How is it that the “vaccines” continue to maintain their Emergency Use Authorization status?”

      How is it that mandates are being proclaimed for the “vaccines” when there is clearly a safe pandemic ending nobel prize winning drug alternative?

      How is it that are institutions are closing there eyes to the hundreds of clinical research studies showing ivermectin effectiveness against covid and the miraculous results in India?

      How is it that lockdowns are instituted when we have a safe and effective drug in Ivermectin that is 95% effective with a monthly dose used prophylactic and 100% effective with a weekly dose used prophylactic in preventing infection? This is among high exposure health care workers. A monthly dose would be much more effective in the general population. Ivermectin eliminates the need for lockdowns.

      Ivermectin used prophylactic does everything the vaccines claim to do but dont and doesnt expose the population to a dangerous experimental drug?

      Distributing Ivermectin can be done without emergency authorization. If the situation is so drastic that it requires exposing the public to the risk of experimental drugs why would the much lessor risk of distributing a drug with extraordinary 20 year safety record, that has shown to be incredibly effective particularly used prophylactic and early stage, not be taken instead?

      • eKnock says:

        They are working on resources per capita improvement. We’ll have plenty of oil and coal and gas and zilch CO2 when the capita gets down to 500 million.

        • fraid not.

          with only 500m people, there would not be enough people to support the necessary infrastructure required to build and maintain an ‘industrial Fossil Fuel ” driven energy system.

          • Yorchichan says:

            Why not? Only a small number of people are currently involved in building and maintaining infrastructure. With fewer people, less infrastructure is needed too.

            • you’ve possibly not taken into consideration the pyramid of industry that makes ‘infrastructure’ possible.

              imagine the mechanism of a factory making, for instance a nut and bolt. In millions, or a lightbulb–in millions

              or, another instance, the complexity needed to produce a cylinder of gas, and the complexity needed to make a welding torch–or a brick factory. Or an RSJ girder..

              Then when youve figured that out, imagine creating/maintaining a transport system to haul it around.

              I doubt if that could be done with a horse and cart. There wouldn’t be enough of us to build and maintain any other form of transport system, because it would need oil, steel, rubber and a thousand other things, all made by specialist factories requiring colossal energy input.

            • Yorchichan says:

              You may be right, Norman, but I remain unconvinced. I have no doubt that the elite do indeed regard most of us as “useless eaters” and think that 90%+ of us can be eliminated without collapsing all of IC. And it’s what they believe that counts, because they have the power to act on their beliefs.

            • it may well be that we proletariat are regarded by some as ‘useless eaters’. but they have not figured out the ‘pyramid of complexity’ either.

              wealth and basic intellect are not always found in the same place.

              Musk and Bezos promote ‘space flight’ as a money making business enterprise, on the same basis as conventional air transport.

              it isn’t, it is an energy consuming enterprise, purely an ego boost. Which makes them idiots in that context.

              Bezos and Musk had a single ‘idea’ that made them billionaires. But those billions exist only because the rest of us made it so. If we were not here to sustain those billions, they would evaporate faster than they were made.

              Maybe they’ve figured that out, maybe not. Either way–it doesn’t alter the fact of it.

              what they ‘believe’ doesn’t count, because ‘belief’ has to be underpinned by the availability of energy. (ie–us).
              I can ‘believe’ my private jet will keep flying without all those ‘useless eaters’ on the ground who keep me supplied with fuel. It won’t change the ‘fact’ that I will fall out of the sky without them.

              A billionaire might ‘believe’ he is safe in his compound, but that belief is viable only so long as he can afford to pay to be guarded.
              He might ‘believe’ that his billions will last forever. They will last only so long as the rest of us are available to ‘consume’.

              In an empty world, $1 trn in the bank can do literally nothing to keep you alive.

            • Tim Groves says:

              The Egyptians managed to build pyramids, Norman, with a lot less than 500 million people!

              Unlike Keith, who loves to talk about how the cost of space solar has been worked out down to the price per kilowatt I’m not a meticulous bottle washer and pin counter type of guy. I just use my imagination and experience and I eyeball things to make rough estimates.

              My estimate is that 500 million people could be an optimum number to keep the infrastructure and industrial base needed to maintain 500 million people in relative comfort. By contrast, 8 billion can’t do much that 500 million people can’t do. They can merely do a lot more of the same, only less efficiently because they are pushed for inputs and have to make use of more marginal resources given that we live on a finite world.

              At Norman’s date for the start of the Industrial Revolution—sometime in the early eighteenth century— the world’s human population was not much bigger than 500 million. It took until 1830 to reach a billion. As it was, so shall it be again, at least according to the Guidestones.

            • TIm Groves says:

              Imagine the sheer tonnage of RSJ girders already in existence that will be surplus to requirements once 95% of the population is no longer around to utilize them. If there are broadly enough in existence for today’s needs, then there are broadly enough for the needs of ten generations of people at a world population of 800 million. With a lick of rustproofing paint every few decades, they would be able to flourish and thrive while scavenging and salvaging existing RSJ girders for several centuries.

            • Norman may be correct about the practicalities of maintaining modern industrial civilization and its infrastructure.
              However, a frightened human being is less likely to evaluate a predicament from a rational point of view. That is when what they believe will drown out practical reality, in terms of influencing their choices and actions. That is also when they may lose faith in cooperation and turn toward competition. Trust in one’s fellow man breaks down.

              This may have been posted before:

              “Survival of the Richest
              The wealthy are plotting to leave us behind”

              July 5, 2018

              “Which region will be less impacted by the coming climate crisis: New Zealand or Alaska? Is Google really building Ray Kurzweil a home for his brain, and will his consciousness live through the transition, or will it die and be reborn as a whole new one? Finally, the CEO of a brokerage house explained that he had nearly completed building his own underground bunker system and asked, ‘How do I maintain authority over my security force after the event?’

              “The Event. That was their euphemism for the environmental collapse, social unrest, nuclear explosion, unstoppable virus, or Mr. Robot hack that takes everything down.
              This single question occupied us for the rest of the hour. They knew armed guards would be required to protect their compounds from the angry mobs. But how would they pay the guards once money was worthless? What would stop the guards from choosing their own leader? The billionaires considered using special combination locks on the food supply that only they knew. Or making guards wear disciplinary collars of some kind in return for their survival. Or maybe building robots to serve as guards and workers — if that technology could be developed in time.
              That’s when it hit me: At least as far as these gentlemen were concerned, this was a talk about the future of technology. Taking their cue from Elon Musk colonizing Mars, Peter Thiel reversing the aging process, or Sam Altman and Ray Kurzweil uploading their minds into supercomputers, they were preparing for a digital future that had a whole lot less to do with making the world a better place than it did with transcending the human condition altogether and insulating themselves from a very real and present danger of climate change, rising sea levels, mass migrations, global pandemics, nativist panic, and resource depletion. For them, the future of technology is really about just one thing: escape.”

              https://onezero.medium.com/survival-of-the-richest-9ef6cddd0cc1

            • Mike Roberts
              Mike Roberts says:

              My estimate is that 500 million people could be an optimum number to keep the infrastructure and industrial base needed to maintain 500 million people in relative comfort.

              But getting to that 500 million from 7.5 billion would likely collapse everything. So “keeping” the infrastructure seems highly unlikely.

              Is there a basis for the 500m estimate, or is it a finger in the air number? Just wondering. How would it need to be distributed around the world and does it take into account collapsed ecosystems, rising sea levels, etc?

            • Tim Groves says:

              Mike, the 500 million number is taken from the Georgia Guidestones. How it got there or who chizzled it in stone are questions I’ve been unable to answer. Perhaps Gail had a hand in it?—although she’s bound to deny it.

              It is true that throughout history previous population collapses have never gone well, although they have tended to be precipitated by environmental/climatic changes. But even if a drastic and fairly rapid population reduction could be planned, there are bound to be too many imponderables to allow it to go smoothly.

              I think anyone trying to engineer such a thing would be contemplating a controlled demolition of parts of the population (old folks) (ethnic groups) (political opponents) (people who can be hung upside down and shaken until money falls out of their pockets)—first they came for the trade unionists, that sort of thing—and of the economy, followed by a cleanup and a reboot under a new system with what’s left. Nobody’s saying it wouldn’t be messy.

            • JMS says:

              “Perhaps Gail had a hand in it?”

              Just let’s add 2+2. Gail lives in Georgia, and “tver berg” means “cross rock”.
              And what do we find at the top of the monument in question? A cross rock!
              I don’t want to jump to conclusions, but i’m affraid every piece of evidence points to her.

          • eKNOCK says:

            millions of lightbulbs?????????? holy sh*t.
            I never thought about lightbulbs. OMG???

            • Tim

              The egyptians lived in a self sustaining environment. The Nile delivered food, and water, all the people had to do was plant it and eat it.

              It was a pefect climate in energy terms.

              Wages were paid in food.

              The cult was a cult of death. Their lives were dedicated to the next life, so you ‘bought’ that life through expenditure in this life

              The idea was comfort and security in the afterlife. Your body was preserved to that end.

              So a wealthy man would use his life-energy spend in creating the circumstance of his next life.
              He bought the services of tomb builders, and ‘took it with him’ when he died. Never a good idea.

              But nevertheless, if you could afford the food-energy of 000s of workers for 20 years, bashing at stone with copper chisels, you could have a pyramid to last ‘forever’. Which is what the kings did.

              Utterly pointless of course.

              We do the same thing. Construct edifices to support our current lifestyles, rather than an ‘after-lifestyle’

              but it amounts to much the same thing. Ultimately pointless, but it delivers comfort and security in our ‘now’.

        • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
          Ed says:

          fraid not too many need 50 million to allow nature sustainable processing of pollution.

        • Trixie says:

          Who are “they” precisely? The Annunaki? The space Gods? I think your crystals are damaged or something….

      • Replenish says:

        The goal is to extract value, build the ark, escape from and rebuild after collapse. The elite need to accelerate testing of new medical technologies that could cure common diseases and age-related issues for bunker time while possibly solving the limitations of: space migration, intelligence squared and life extension. Its a perfect plan just Smile. The revelation of archived and scripted scenarios, the use of bot brigades, straw man arguments, political us vs. them and media censorship serve as convenient mysteries to grow conspiracies and pacify the natives while the testing and control groups move the experiment forward. Various forms of bread and circus, managed economic contraction, digit transformation, energy triage and collectivism are all in play. Toys and treadmills for the monkeys. Like I tell my 75 yr old father.. We are on our own. Let’s make the best of these times!

        • project wis.dom
          project wis.dom says:

          This is the most entertaining, humorous, intelligent, bitter, cynical and eloquent description of reality I read for a long time.

          Added to my list of favourite quotes. Replenish, you will be in the best intellectual company this planet was hosting 🙂

          Perfect. Thank you.

    • Lasting immunity found after recovery from COVID-19 – NIH News

      January 26, 2021

      “The researchers found durable immune responses in the majority of people studied. Antibodies against the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, which the virus uses to get inside cells, were found in 98% of participants one month after symptom onset. As seen in previous studies, the number of antibodies ranged widely between individuals. But, promisingly, their levels remained fairly stable over time, declining only modestly at 6 to 8 months after infection.

      “Virus-specific B cells increased over time. People had more memory B cells six months after symptom onset than at one month afterwards. Although the number of these cells appeared to reach a plateau after a few months, levels didn’t decline over the period studied.

      “Levels of T cells for the virus also remained high after infection. Six months after symptom onset, 92% of participants had CD4+ T cells that recognized the virus. These cells help coordinate the immune response. About half the participants had CD8+ T cells, which kill cells that are infected by the virus.

      “As with antibodies, the numbers of different immune cell types varied substantially between individuals. Neither gender nor differences in disease severity could account for this variability. However, 95% of the people had at least 3 out of 5 immune-system components that could recognize SARS-CoV-2 up to 8 months after infection.

      “’Several months ago, our studies showed that natural infection induced a strong response, and this study now shows that the responses last,’ Weiskopf says. ‘We are hopeful that a similar pattern of responses lasting over time will also emerge for the vaccine-induced responses.'”

      https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/lasting-immunity-found-after-recovery-covid-19

      How about that? Increase in memory B cells and high levels of T cells following infection. “Natural infection induced a strong response… the responses last.” “95% of the people had at least 3 out of 5 immune-system components that could recognize SARS-CoV-2 up to 8 months after infection.”

      How long does “immunity” provided by the bullshit “vaccines” last? 6 months maybe?

      And how many immune-system components will the “vaccinated” have that are capable of recognizing SARS-CoV-2, keeping in mind that the “vaccines” train their immune systems to focus on the spike protein?

      And what’s the recovery rate from COVID-19? 97% and 99.75% (WebMD)?

      Given the above:

      Why do we have a federal “vaccine mandate” in the US?

      Why are people’s jobs being threatened over “vaccination?”

      Why must the “vaccinated” be protected from the “unvaccinated?”

      Why must children get “vaccinated?”

  26. CTG says:

    If you look at the chart on deaths, it seems to be double digit now. Note that I am talking in absolute terms. I am looking at trend that tends to show up everywhere. Right now, there is simply nothing Singapore can do to bring down those deaths. Lockdowns will not help. The only thing they can do is to cover up.

    https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/covid-19-new-cases-deaths-oct-21-moh-update-2258806

    • Of Monkeys, Mice and Men: From Natural Bodies to Digitized Bots

      “The first installment in this series will focus on the seemingly innocent country of Singapore as a technocratic role model for the new global order, and I will most likely circle back to Singapore at the end, featuring Biopolis, an international R&D center for biomedical science, and the related work of Dr. Sydney Brenner. Dr. Brenner reportedly lived, worked, and recently died (in April 2019) in Singapore, and was known as the founder of messenger RNA (mRNA). While it appears to be a most unlikely place in which to begin and end this story about synthetic biology (and its curious link to humanity and the ongoing COVID event, including next-generation sequencing and mRNA vaccines), I think it will become clear as the narrative unfolds. The title of this compilation, ‘Of Monkeys, Mice and Men: From Natural Bodies to Digitized Bots,’ shall also make more sense as the puzzle pieces are laid out, and then interlocked.”

      https://pieceofmindful.com/2020/12/08/of-monkeys-mice-and-men-from-natural-bodies-to-digitized-bots/

      Part 1: A Star is Born ~ Ascent of the Techno-S’pore and the Descent of Man

      “Is it any surprise that, while the World Economic Forum has been held in Davos, Switzerland for more than fifty years, it was announced that their annual meeting in 2021 will be held in the shining star — Singapore? Could that be some covert signaling among the Davos elites? As reported in Forbes on December 7, 2020, ‘The event, called by organizers ‘the first global leadership event to address worldwide recovery from the pandemic,‘ will be held in-person.’ As it turns out, Reuters stated in September 2020, that Singapore has the lowest death rate from the reported coronavirus in the world. This has been attributed to their ‘zealous testing and contact tracing;’ however, I wonder if there is another explanation to explain this statistic.”

      Part 10: mRNA Mavericks and Everyware ~ Re-assembling Life via Ribocomputing

      Singapore’s Biopolis and Genetic Engineering “Stories”

      “As briefly referenced in the Prologue and Part 1 of my series (links above), this story of synthetic biology and bio-digital convergence (detailed in my ten installments) began — and now ends — with Biopolis in Singapore.

      “Biopolis is renowned as Asia’s premier biomedical hub. ‘With 13 buildings across 5 phases and a total floor area of more than 340,000 square metres, it is a thriving ecosystem home to more than 50 public and private biomedical research organisations such as Abbott, Procter & Gamble (P&G) as well as the Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR), Singapore’s lead agency for scientific research and development.’

      “It should be noted — in a rather timely manner — that one company residing in Biopolis is Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. Takeda crossed the mainstream airwaves in late August 2021, with the publicized recall of 1.6 million doses of its Moderna COVID product due to ‘magnetic material contamination.’ Subsequently, in September 2021, it was reported that another Takeda recall was instituted, due to two suspected related deaths and admission of ‘stainless steel contaminants’ in the vials.

      “As stated by Pharma Boardroom In 2008, the biotech hub is the world’s ‘first integrated, purpose-build biomedical research complex, juxtaposing both public and private sector research laboratories.’ ‘Every new religion needs its Mecca,’ says Philip Yeo, who was the main promoter of the Biopolis concept and chairman of A*STAR in 2003, when Phase 1 of the project was completed. Pharma Boardroom pronounced that Singapore has ‘been active in luring multinationals to locate their drug discovery facilities in the country.’

      “A*STAR seems to have even more tentacles then DARPA does, in that it is supported by ST Engineering (see Endnote 3), and it should be noted that the Singaporean government is, and has always been, operated by scientists and engineers. Further, the intimate confluence of smart cities/digital tech and biotech/genomics/bioengineering is exemplified by Singaporean public-private ventures.

      “One intriguing tentacle was reflected, strangely enough, in 2011, with an article declaring to be ‘fictional’ and featuring Philip Yeo and his A*STAR program. While claiming to be a fictional account, it is curious that the 2011 analysis of Philip Yeo speaks of Yeo as one of the first Singaporean superhumans, and that the aim of his A*STAR program was to create an elite force of super soldiers for homeland security purposes. The “fictitious” article implied that the goal was to select the most ‘genetically superior’ Singaporeans and enhance them through artificial means. The article purports (again fictitiously) that Philip Yeo took over leadership of A*STAR with the goal of developing an army of 300 superhumans by 2020.

      “In reality, what does go on at A*STAR with regard to genetic and bioengineering enhancement? This inquiring writer would like to know . . .

      “Since this series cannot end without some talk of transhumanism (and the Singularity), and certainly its presumed authentic connection to Singapore . . . In this regard, we look to Miriam Ji Sun, foresight researcher and Chair of the German Transhumanist Association who stated in 2011:

      ‘For many reasons, the tiny country of Singapore should be considered as a leading candidate to be the eventual epicenter of the Technological Singularity (my emphasis).’

      “In 2009, the Boston Consulting group scored Singapore as the world’s most innovation-friendly country. In regard to biotech innovations, Singapore is ranked in the top five according to a study by Scientific American. One contributing factor, besides considerable governmental support (the government plans to invest $3 billion in Biomedical Sciences research for the period 2011–2015), is the very liberal biotech-related legislation . . .“

      “Through its excellent position in biotechnology and chemistry, it is also heavily investing in nanotechnology, and has established an Institute of Bioengineering and Nanotechnology.“

      “Singapore also was accused in the 1980s of practicing a kind of eugenics, when Prime Minister Lee Kwan Yew made the remark that the ‘well educated should have more children than the less educated to maintain economic standards.’ Singapore quickly tried to distance itself from such statements, but the idea continues to live on in special dating services for academics (my emphasis).”

      “Sun continued, ‘Because longevity is seen as very desirable in societies deeply influenced by Chinese culture, as is the case with Singapore, large shares of the population are likely to support research and development of technologies aimed at prolonging healthy life. Due to Singapore’s high capacities in biotechnology and related areas, the country could become a leading innovator in regenerative medicine and anti-aging science and technologies from which the elite of the country, at least, will benefit.’

      “Singapore may not be the first country to have a supercomputer that exceeds human intelligence—and human intelligence and knowledge may also be just too much valued—but it may be a country with early life extension applications, humans augmented by computer technology and cyborgs, advanced tissue and organ engineering, and possibly even genetic enhancements for improving health and intelligence (my emphasis).”

      “A hybrid of human and machine intelligence may develop in Singapore—as well as in other East Asian countries—in a kind of yin-yang unity that achieves transhuman transcendence through the fusion of complements, i.e. what humans are good at combined with what machines are good at. It would not be surprising to see cyborgs in the future Singaporean society, along with genetically and bio-technologically enhanced (post)humans with improved intelligence, health, and longevity (my emphasis).”

      https://pieceofmindful.com/2021/09/20/part-10-mrna-mavericks-and-everyware-re-assembling-life-via-ribocomputing/

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        I am doubtful that any supercomputer really produces results that exceed human intelligence. I can believe that Singapore has very liberal biotech-related legislation. Singapore is an outlier. I suppose Israel is another outlier, in a slightly different way.

  27. Andrew says:

    Gail
    I follow your blog and have appreciated your comments about the current energy and economic situation. I would like to ask you about a regional issue and about two issues raised in the blog. I will start by theorizing that although there are growing indications of impending economic problems due to energy shortages, there are now places where full-blown collapse has arrived (e.g. Lebanon), but that the severity and rapidity of collapse will not be the same everywhere.

    Specifically I am wondering about the relationship between the intermittent electric generation from wind and solar vs the need for non-intermittent sources? Among the non-intermittent sources I include fossil fuel generation, hydropower, nuclear power, and perhaps geothermal (as in Iceland). Hydropower includes strategies such as pumped storage that I also consider “hydropower”. What is the ratio a grid needs of the stable, non-intermittent sources to balance the intermittent so that the region does not end up like the UK where lack of wind is severely affecting availability of power? Is it 1:5? It is hard to imagine Norway with almost 100% hydropower being threatened by collapse as the UK is.

    I wondered if you might comment about the energy situation in New York State? The State has passed an aggressive de-carbonization law called the CLCPA (Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act) which commits to 85% reduction + 15% offsets by 2050. The State has banned fracking though the potential to develop it in the future is still a possibility. Recently NYS has entered into a 25 year agreement with Hydro-Quebec to supply a large amount of power (10.4 terawatt hours per year) to the downstate (NYC) region that has relied on fossil fuels. Investments will be made in transmission lines to bring that power down from Quebec. Upstate NY already has a relatively low carbon grid based on hydropower (Niagara and the St. Lawrence) and nuclear. On the downside, NYS has de-commissioned Indian Point nuclear that provided 20% of the power in the state. Offshore wind is planned to replace Indian Point. There is some solar and wind development but this is a fairly low percentage of the total mix. Wind power is unpopular due to siting concerns and despite a push for more is unlikely to grow much beyond what is planned. NY has a lot of water resources and could develop more hydropower. Coal is completely phased out as of 2020.

    I can’t pretend that the residents or that state and local government are in agreement. A carbon tax was proposed last spring but never got to a vote in the legislature.

    NYC is one of the centers of global finance. The industry is powerful and prosperous and will fight to stay in business (this could be positive or negative).

    So does NY end up more like Norway? Or are we dragged down? Or is the entire world dragged down due to systemic financial and supply chain issues?

    Your data regarding Europe’s immediate energy shortage is disturbing. What will happen to Europe this winter? And in particular the UK? Will Russia bail them out? What is their longer term solution 2-3 years out?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Hydropower is also intermittent, with the extent of intermittency varying greatly by location. Norway’s own electricity consumption exceeded its production in 1996 and 2006. I have heard that its consumption may exceed its production this year as well. Intermittent hydroelectric is more of a problem in warmer countries. Some countries have wet and dry seasons. There is essentially no hydroelectric during the dry season.

      Regarding the share of intermittents in the mix, I think that Europe has already gone over the limit of intermittents in the total. Any backup needs to be something that is actually available. Depending upon imported natural gas and coal is a recipe for disaster.

      NYC has the same problem with time of day pricing as Europe. It drives backup electricity producers out of business.

      I have a hard time seeing good solutions. New York could encourage fracking to get some natural gas for electricity.

    • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
      Ed says:

      “Offshore wind is planned to replace Indian Point”

      What plan? Where can I read the plan? How much will it cost? When will the build start? When will the build finish? Talk is cheap actions require resources. I live in New York State and I know of no such plans.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        How do you make wind appear when you want it to? Offshore wind is terribly expensive and not reliable. Just ask the UK.

      • Andrew says:

        The CLCPA, passed by the legislature and signed by then Governor Cuomo calls for 9000 megawatts of offshore wind. Since then these projects have been underway. If you search “NY offshore wind” or “Long Island offshore wind” you will find many articles about the projects.

        I will include one link to a recent update on the NYSERDA website.Contractors have been selected, assembly of turbines will be at the Hudson port of Coeymans. just south of Albany. The article includes a map of the initial sites located off Long Island.

        https://www.nyserda.ny.gov/All-Programs/Programs/Offshore-Wind/Focus-Areas/NY-Offshore-Wind-Projects

        • worldofhanumanotg
          worldofhanumanotg says:

          9GW nominal if the wind blows correctly, so following the German’s example (not only) this year it could also produce almost nothing..

          • Andrew says:

            I have read about the North Sea wind speeds lagging over the past few months and leading to power shortages in the UK. But today the winds seem adequate there. If winds pick up from summer I am sure it will be a relief in the UK if the wind would just keep blowing all winter.

  28. CTG says:

    Huh?????

    JPM: “We Could Be Just Weeks Away From Cushing Effectively Running Out Of Crude”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/jpm-we-could-be-just-weeks-away-cushing-being-out-crude

    • CTG says:

      One commenter wrote :

      Someone smart explain to me how we go from an unprecedented glut to an unprecedented drought in the span of a year when economic activity is declining and everyone stayed home?

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        US production is down in 2021 relative to 2019. In November 2019, its crude oil production was 12,966,000 barrels per day. In July 2021, it was 11,307,000. In September, it was lower yet, because of hurricane disruption. US consumption seems be back to the 2019 level.

        We have to make this up with oil imports. These may not be forthcoming.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      One thing I have noticed is that the US has become a net importer again, when crude oil and energy products are considered together.

      https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/US-Net-Imports-of-Crude-Oil-and-Petroleum-Products-are-Rising-Again-Chart.png

      There are differences in what kinds of crude oil that refineries will accept. The US has been importing more oil from OPEC countries recently, to meet its needs. If this oil is not available, and US shale oil is not really sufficiently acceptable to US refineries, we may have a problem. This may be why we are drawing down reserves.

      • This Is a problem of quality of shale oil yes?

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          All oils are different. The lightest oil can use a very simple refinery. Shale oils seem to be a mix of mostly very light with a little heavy mixed it. I don’t think it is suited for the simplest refineries. It may be better for mixing with heavier oils.

          Perhaps someone who knows more about this can answer this. I know that there was some discussion about our shale exports continuing as before (perhaps because we had signed contracts to sell them), so now we need to import oil from elsewhere to take its place.

  29. Levent Özbek – Kompleks nonlinear dinamik sistemler ile bunlara bağlı olarak ekolojik ve ekonomik sorunlar üzerinde çalışmaktayım.
    Levent Özbek says:

    What do you think about that news:

    “As deaths rise, Russian doctors despair at low vaccine rate”

    https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-business-europe-pandemics-moscow-b844be49c2811a454440d4e84d5e5338

    COVID-19: Romania in eye of storm with record infections and deaths

    https://www.euronews.com/2021/10/19/romania-in-eye-of-covid-storm-with-death-rate-among-world-s-highest

    Low vaccinations rate in Romania and Russia but record number of deaths, what do you think about?

  30. Fast Eddie’s favorite Guy
    Doctor Anthony Fauci on !major network TV pushing the Jab on children

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=g8uWAGs7rSM

    Must be ready to administer…what a guy

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Think how much money the vaccine companies will make from this effort.

      • Student says:

        We will arrive at the paradox that when these Covid vaccines will be approved for children in various Countries and they will have obtained official roll out for children, we will be giving vaccines to children for a disease that doesn’t exist any more.
        In fact it will have turned, through variants, in a complete different one.
        Even already now, Delta and Delta plus are something different.
        Mainstream media and politicians are treating these Covid vaccines like if they were vaccine for measles.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          The mutating nature of the virus is definitely as issue.

    • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
      Ed says:

      The CCP/Dem Party plan to vax 25 million kids with a kill rate of 1/1000 that will be 25,000 kid corpses. Not one will be shown on TV complete news blackout.

  31. Brent & dub are both in the mid-eighties (http://oil-price.net/) — prices for the existing oil are bid up until it busts the economy, but not nearly enough to replace the depleting wells?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I am afraid you are right. There is no price that consumers can afford that is high enough for producers. Even the current price is bought with a lot of funny money.

  32. In 2019, Jason Henrichs took 46 flights for business, traveling to cities where he stayed at hotels, dined at local restaurants, and sometimes even visited tourist attractions like the Liberty Bell.

    In 2020, he took just three flights.

    The traveling life has its perks—Henrichs, the CEO of Alloy Labs, a consortium of community banks, has Executive Platinum status on American Airlines, Gold Elite status at Marriott, and membership in not one but three private airport lounges. He has 350,000 miles, which he can use to fly his whole family across the world for free.

    But forced to stay at home during the pandemic, Henrichs got a taste of a life where he sees his family more, and is just as effective at work. He’s even been able to convince banking colleagues who have long been averse to giving up in-person meetings to move online. The talks he once flew across the country to deliver to boards of directors are more frequently streamed online now, and so are the meetings that would have lasted in a bank over 2 or 3 days but now are spread out over short Microsoft Teams huddles over 2 or 3 weeks. And lo and behold, he and his colleagues are getting more done.

    “This isn’t about just reducing expense. This is about increasing effectiveness,” says Henrichs, who says he’ll likely travel once a month, rather than once a week, after the pandemic.

    United Airlines planes in storage at O’Hare International Airport in Chicago on Sept. 11, 2020.Lucy Hewett—The New York Times/Redux
    United Airlines planes in storage at O’Hare International Airport in Chicago on Sept. 11, 2020.Lucy Hewett—The New York Times/Redux
    Tens of thousands of road warriors like Henrichs—and their employers—are coming to a similar conclusion, which is going to cause a reckoning for the already-battered leisure and hospitality sector. U.S. companies’ travel budgets declined by 90% or more in 2020, according to Deloitte Insights. Even if the pandemic ebbs, companies looking to become more environmentally sustainable won’t likely go back to the same volume of travel as before; corporations like Zurich Insurance Group AG, Bain & Company, and S&P Global have announced plans to cut business travel emissions in the next few years, with Zurich aiming to reduce emissions by as much as 70% by next year.

    This could mean big losses for airlines, hotels, rental car companies, and other industries catering to corporate travelers. Business travelers make up 12% of airline passengers but 75% of revenues on certain flights. They brought in steady revenue to hotels when they attended conferences and events and then stayed a few extra days to vacation with their families.

    Some executives predict that business travel will return to 85% of pre-pandemic levels, says Lindsey Roeschke, managing director for travel and hospitality analysis at Morning Consult. She considers that an optimistic take. “Even if I’m wrong, and we do see a return to those levels,” she says, “that’s still a massive loss for the industry as a whole.”

    The hospitality industry is feeling it. During the pandemic, rental car companies like Hertz, hotels like the Fairmont in San Jose, and international airlines including Aeromexico, Virgin Atlantic, and LATAM all filed for bankruptcy protection. Government supports that kept the U.S. airline industry afloat ended September 30. The hotel industry is expected to earn $59 billion less in business travel revenue this year compared to 2019, according to the American Hotel and Lobby Association. Airlines are expected to lose $51.8 billion in 2021 alone.

    “We’ve been burning cash for 18 months,” says Dave Harvey, vice president of Southwest Business. And now the government support has ended. “We’re all flying naked at this point in the fourth quarter.”

    It can be hard to picture those losses in terms of billions of dollars. But it may be easier to picture the ripple effects—businesses closed, workers laid off, airlines canceling flights—of hundreds of thousands of Jason Henrichses traveling less.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/business-travel-demise-could-far-132834412.html

    Very bad news for the Travel industry…
    Doubt there will be a bounce back and devastating to the bottom line of Airlines and Hotels.
    These are the high margin seats and rooms..
    Suppose these Industries will have to lower their costs….

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Requiring vaccinations of their workers is likely to lead to some of their employees resigning. With a smaller workforce, airlines can focus on fewer routes. Perhaps the airlines can be more efficient if they are smaller.

  33. I can think of another parallel between now and the mid-1970s – the energy crisis that began with the 1973 oil embargo.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/oct/21/uk-factories-supply-chain-shortages-cbi-businesses-budget-spending-review

    > Fears grow as UK factories hit by worst supply chain shortages since mid-70s

    CBI survey of businesses reveals concern a week before chancellor delivers budget and spending review

    Britain’s manufacturers are struggling with their worst supply shortages since the mid-1970s, as fears grow in the sector over the economic fallout from rising costs and a lack of key materials.

    Almost two-thirds of the businesses surveyed in the snapshot from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) warned that shortages of components would hit factory output in the next three months.

    That was the biggest share since January 1975, a year when inflation hit a postwar high amid severe economic turbulence in Britain and abroad, with NHS doctors going on strike and Glasgow bin collectors staging industrial action.

    The latest survey of 263 manufacturers, held against a backdrop of severe supply chain disruption caused by Covid and Brexit, also reported rising concern over staff shortages holding back industrial output over the coming months.

    As many as two in five firms worried about a lack of skilled labour to keep factory production lines running, the highest since July 1974, when Britain was still emerging from the three-day week just months earlier.

    Coming a week before Rishi Sunak delivers his budget and spending review, the CBI warned that companies were facing mounting costs and that growth in the manufacturing sector was at risk.

    …. “However, the last quarter has been undoubtedly overshadowed by firms facing shortages of materials or components, struggling to fill roles and grappling with increased energy cost pressures. It is essential that the government continues to work constructively with businesses to identify ways to alleviate this difficult situation,” he added.

  34. Malcopian says:

    So Russia and China are becoming more powerful and influential and reminding us that they have stuff we in the West need. What if these energy and materials shortages are just a ploy, and they will turn the taps back on once we agree to ignore what they are doing in their regions of influence and let them reoccupy Ukraine and Taiwan? If we got BAU back, it would be worth it.

    After all, the Arabs starved us of oil back in 1973 as a punishment, but the good times came back eventually.

  35. MG says:

    Heaven is an embodiment of our yearning for simplicity when the complexity rises.
    Home is a similar place. We want to return to home or have a new home.
    That is why the new home of the humans is the heaven, because as we approach energy limits, the home of our species disappears.

  36. Rodster says:

    This was in response to FE’s comment about San Francisco

  37. Rodster says:

    You know what’s even worse? The idi-ots who have had enough and leave that sh*thole State then move to another State and try to turn the State they moved to into the same sh*thole they came from. You can’t fix stupid.

    The worst part is, how beautiful and breathtaking San Francisco really is. I’ve been there and it’s like the song says. You leave your heart in SF, but the leftists and progressives have destroyed that city. It’s so bad that the homeless and druggies poop on the streets. The city pays workers six figures just to cleanup the poop and spray the streets but they can’t keep up with the poop.

    • I’ve lived in SF Bay Area for more than 10 years, and I am still not sure why people call San Francisco beautiful. I mean it’s a decent city to live in especially compared to many cities in the United States, but beautiful?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I visited San Francisco many years ago, and it was beautiful then. The first actuarial convention I ever attended was in San Francisco. I visited my first Chinese restaurant there, back in the day when Chinese restaurants were less common. I walked around the city and saw the sights. I think I took a vacation day or two, to see the city.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Reminds a person of what has happened with the Democrats in the US. This was one quote I liked from the post:

      “Fortunately, a longer-term gold seam for funnelling cash from the poor to the rich has opened up in the unlikely field of environmental politics. Previously the preserve of “back to nature” hippy types, and more recently infiltrated by eco-socialists, the establishment-approved “bright green” variant espoused by groups like Extinction Rebellion and by eco-celebrities such as Greta Thunberg and dear old David Attenborough, has allowed the Tory government to turn carbon reduction into a technological wealth pump.”

      No wonder academic types are in favor of whatever the Democrats and Tories want!

  38. Jimothy says:

    I see a lot of comments about the transition of agriculture. My personal opinion, as a farmer, is that this will be difficult to say the least.

    One example is shifting from corn to wheat, ostensibly because fertilizer is becoming scarce. Can the seed be sourced? That alone will be a huge problem. If you can find the seed, does it need to be overwintered? It may be the only kind that is available. If so, do you see the crisis coming from far enough away (as a farmer) to plant right now? What if your ground is too wet to till already, or even frozen?

    Regenerative agriculture is another one. I’m actually quite familiar with permaculture and regenerative ag. One issue is that it takes time (years). The soil has to build and recover, and the trees take time to reach maturity (more difficult with such an unstable climate). It is also now harder to find fruit trees, and the ones available are going up in price (on retail nursery near me went from $25 a few years ago to $40 last year to $60 now. They are already selling out). The wholesale nursery I buy from is in shambles due to logistics and supply chain issues.

    A cornerstone of sustainable agriculture is to build the soil. But how do you do that if there’s no way to transport mulch (or no mulch is available)? Another route is cover cropping, but this needs seeds and equipment to be practical. You can also plant things like comfrey and cut it down routinely in order to provide mulch right were you need it, but do you have the comfrey plants and the ability (irrigation) to get them established? Comfrey here takes 2-3 years to be established enough to cut from, and then it takes another few years for the soil to be really rebuilt.

    Interesting times.

    • Dennis L. says:

      Jimothy,

      I have significant farm land, not a farmer, tough to learn, tough to understand, tough to make good choices.

      Comfrey?

      I am in SE MN.

      Any suggestions?

      Dennis L.

      • Denned, I know you are asking Jimothy., but remember reading an article on how transplants from Southeast Asia were arriving in your region doing what they were in their home country… agriculture and being very successful at it.
        A trip to a farmers market in Minneapolis or Saint Paul, Minnesota may seem similar to one anywhere with a vibrant local food system. But taking a closer look at the produce on display will reveal something special.

        In addition to run-of-the-mill fruit and vegetable varieties, bok choy, Thai chilli peppers, peanuts and mustard greens are common offerings at these markets. They are grown by the region’s Hmong population, an ethnic group native to Southeast Asia and southern China. Many Hmong people immigrated to the United States as refugees during and after the Vietnam war and started farming in the Twin Cities region. They have been familiar faces at the area’s farmers markets as vendors ever since, and the region is now home to the largest concentration of Hmong people in the country, according to the Minnesota Historical Society.

        “For Hmong people, farming is central to living. It was the skill for survival they brought to the US, “says Janssen Hang, co-founder and executive director of the Hmong American Farmers Association (HAFA). “ They love feeding their community and they have been such an integral component to the local food economy, revitalizing the sector.”
        https://modernfarmer.com/2021/01/hmong-farmers-find-their-own-land-in-minnesota/

        They have the skillet you got the land…
        Also there I read about a CSA ..Community Supported Agriculture, venture.
        Another possible connection…
        Yes. Your climate is a challenge, but very nice place.

        https://www.localharvest.org/rochester-mn/csa

        Many other links for assistance

      • drb753
        drb says:

        winter cover crops with a rye-heavy mixture, and patience. No monoculture. you still need a seeder, a combine, and their diesel. As I am contemplating it for myself: ultimately go to tall grass prairie and ruminant livestock that can survive outside. Following the ruminants in the daily pasture rotation, you can put pigs (the hardier breeds can survive solely on manure) or chickens five days later.

        See the link below. He has a partially closed operation, and grows a mixture of grains for chickens and pigs. He does what farmers have done for thousands of years, and grows a multi-specie crop once every few years (originally it was every four) on the same patch. He does it on dry land. I have of course ideas on how to replace the combine and seeder, but probably the electric fences and their solar panels are irreplaceable.

      • Jimothy says:

        Dennis, what’s the land like? Do you have water for irrigation, or does it rain regularly in summer? Is it close-ish to any urban areas? You don’t have to give away location details, it’ll just shape my answer. Is the soil depleted? Any idea what USDA zone it is? (you can look that up with your zip code online)

        St Lawrence nursery in upstate NY has trees that are often hardy and disease resistant to your area, in spite of the distance.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          How far away is the nearest nuclear power plant (and spent fuel ponds)

          • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
            Gail Tverberg says:

            There are three nuclear power plants in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area. Prevailing winds are from west to east, thus blowing toward Wisconsin.

            Dennis is in southern Minnesota. I am not sure whether that would be far enough away to be away from nuclear radiation. It would be somewhat away.

            This is a map of where US nuclear power stations are. They are located mostly in the eastern half of the US. (The map doesn’t show the Minnesota stations in quite the right area. They are all together, in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area.)

            https://www.nrc.gov/images/reading-rm/doc-collections/maps/power-reactors-operating.png

            I imagine the reason why nuclear power plants are in the areas they are is to (a) give access to the large amount of water needed for cooling (ocean or river) and (b) minimize the distance to a large urban area, and thus the amount of electricity transmission required.

            Wind turbines are scattered all over the plains states, requiring lots and lots of lightly used transmission.

    • hillcountry – retired electronics manufacturing engineer
      hillcountry says:

      As a past intensive gardener I had cause to ponder how difficult, expensive and time-consuming it can be to grow food, even at relatively small-scales. I used to follow the work of Wes Jackson and wondered if there could ever be such a paradigm shift and what it might take to make it happen.

      Why Perennial Crops

      https://landinstitute.org/our-work/perennial-crops/

      Perennial plants do not have to be reseeded or replanted every year, so they do not require annual plowing or herbicide applications to establish. Whereas to successfully grow annuals, farmers have to suppress or kill the vegetation (weeds) chemically or mechanically that compete with crops for sunlight, nutrients, and water, especially when the crops are seedlings. This soil disturbance has caused significant amounts of soil carbon loss (which ends up in the atmosphere as CO2), soil erosion, nutrient leakage, and changes in soil organisms.

      Perennial crops are robust; they protect soil from erosion and improve soil structure. They increase ecosystem nutrient retention, carbon sequestration, and water infiltration, and can contribute to climate change adaptation and mitigation. Overall, they help ensure food and water security over the long term. Many fruit, forage and some vegetable crops, including fruit trees, alfalfa, grapes, asparagus, and olive trees, are perennials that have been grown for thousands of years. The Land Institute is working to add perennial grains, legumes, and oilseed crops to the list.

      Perennial crops can free farmers from the treadmill of economic instability by significantly reducing the need for costly inputs and minimizing the operational expenses of tillage and planting. This new perennial “hardware” for agriculture stands to catalyze a rich culture around food production and supply chain development. Research is emerging to understand the social and economic strategies needed to support these new agricultural systems. Given that grains make up over 70% of our global caloric consumption and over 70% of our global crop lands, transitioning from an extractive annual model to a perennial model is the best chance we have to create a truly regenerative food future.

      • Jimothy says:

        Perennial crops, including trees, are a valid way to grow food (including animal feed). A regenerative food forest can yield fruit, nuts, mushrooms, eggs, meat, herbs, and even honey and pond fish. I have one myself.

        But these systems take time to build, at the very least, and mature fastest with stable weather patterns, irrigation, mulch, and availability of plants.

        There are a lot of things that we could do, or could have done, but because we didn’t and we aren’t it doesn’t add up to much. We could have planted perennials all over the place, including parks and libraries. I think too little is being done, and I say that as person who has been in the thick of it all

        If the energy crisis is as acute as it appears to be, it is already too late. It was already too late several years ago, though you might as well do what you can to make things less bad, and enjoy the time we have left

        • Mike Roberts
          Mike Roberts says:

          Oh boy, if only food forests were a priority everywhere. So much wasted time. They are definitely the way to go, to my mind.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Even tree crops require fertilization and spraying for insects, I am afraid. They can be difficult to pick and process, too. They require many years to maturity.

          • worldofhanumanotg
            worldofhanumanotg says:

            nope, the uber diversity is the trade off, it keeps the pests down and micro-local, and obviously there are y/y swings (or longer) in production of these diverse yields.. therefor not compatible with today’s biz-gov system a legacy living arrangements (of the majority)..

            basically, the old paradigm of “paradise expulsion” is very likely correct, humanoids did not manage to tame themselves in the abundance, always over stepping, over consuming, over destroying, ..

            in a way this also supports the malformation of humankind as preferred terra-forming agent (eventually digging up fossil energy and forcing the next planetary age) etc.

          • Jimothy says:

            Actually, once the soil is built up they can make it with minimal fertilization. Maybe some watered down urine every now and then. Their leaves provide mulch and the fungi networks build up. Elaine Ingham has a lot of interesting research on soil fertility that applies here. And many native or heritage trees have few insect problems. They tend to be grown less for other reasons such as modern tastes, shipping, and slightly lower productivity

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Crops grown near Chernobyl are still contaminated due to the 1986 nuclear accident, new research shows.

        Scientists analysed grains including wheat, rye, oats and barley and found concentrations of radioactive isotopes — strontium 90 and/or caesium 137 — above Ukraine’s official safe limits in almost half of samples.

        The researchers also examined wood samples and found three quarters contained strontium 90 concentrations above Ukrainian limits for firewood.

        https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/12/201217135254.htm

        If the reactors were not entombed the radiation would still be spewing …. also the spent fuel ponds did not rupture.

        Doomie Preppers are living in a dream world if they think they can survive the end of BAU.

    • jodytishmack
      jodytishmack says:

      I suggest that you fallow some portion of your land and allow weeds to grow, chopping them and incorporating them at the end of the season. I make fertile soil by adding chopped yard waste, about half of which is woody. Another suggestion is to fence the fields so that you can incorporate livestock into your farm. Pigs and chickens co-pasture easily. Pigs root and dig and eat perennial plants that put sugar into their roots in the fall. Chickens scratch and eat weed seeds. Together they rehabilitate land and can be sold for meat. I wrote this article about soil improvement. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-08-01/drawing-down-atmospheric-carbon/

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Also … hungry people would kill and eat all the animals… so no manure

      They will also kill and eat children …

  39. The plot thickens
    American Airlines flight attendants union tells employees they won’t be automatically fired if they refuse to get vaccinated by the airline’s deadline
    Thomas Pallini Oct 19, 2021, 11:02 AM from Insider.com

    American Airlines flight attendant
    An American Airlines flight attendant. LM Otero/AP
    American Airlines’ flight attendant union is telling members that they won’t be immediately fired if they remain unvaccinated past the airline’s deadline.
    All American employees must be vaccinated against COVID-19 per a Biden administration mandate for federal contractors.
    American’s deadline for vaccination is just days before the Thanksgiving holiday.

    American Airlines’ flight attendant union is telling flight attendants unvaccinated for COVID-19 that they won’t immediately be fired or taken off flights if they don’t abide by the airline’s deadline to be vaccinated.

    The Association of Professional Flight Attendants on Monday updated its members on the status of its negotiations with the airline regarding the vaccine mandate. American, the union stated, indicated that it wouldn’t be taking a hardline approach like its rival, United Airlines, to those requesting exemptions for medical or religious reasons.

    “For those Flight Attendants who remain unvaccinated and do not receive an accommodation, you will not be automatically removed from service or terminated from employment on the deadline for compliance,” the Association of Professional Flight Attendants said in an October 18 letter to members. “Our Contract provides for a process that must be followed before anyone can be terminated.”

    An American spokesperson told Insider that workers were told they need to submit proof of vaccination by the November 24 deadline and it’s still codifying details on an exemption and accommodation process. The airline did not say whether unvaccinated flight attendants would be fired or allowed to fly after the deadline imposed by the airline or the December 8 deadline imposed by the Biden administration.

    Fiddle Faddle shifting

  40. Archaeologists from the Israel Antiques Authority (IAA) have excavated a hoard of silver coins from the Hasmonaean period in Modiin-Maccabim-Reut, Israel.
    The researchers were excavating an agricultural estate, where they discovered a rock crevice containing the concealed hoard consisting of shekel and half-shekel silver coins (tetradrachms and didrachms).

    The coins, which were minted in ancient Tyre in present-day Lebanon depict king Antiochus VII, also known as Antiochus the Pious, who ruled the Hellenistic Seleucid Empire – or they may depict his brother Demetrius II.

    Avraham Tendler of the Israel Antiquities Authority said: “The cache is compelling evidence that the owners of the estate saved income for months, eventually leaving the house for some unknown reason. They collected the money in hopes to come back and collect it, but unfortunately never returned. It is exciting to think that the coin hoard was waiting here for more than 2,000 years until we exposed it”
    The team also discovered many bronze coins minted by Hasmonean rulers that mentions the names; John, Judah, Jonathan, and Matthias – and their title as High Priest and head of the Jewish community.

    The discovery of coins in situ stamped with the date “Year Two” of the revolt and the slogan “Freedom of Zion” suggests that the inhabitants of the estate were supporters and possibly participants in the first Jewish Revolt against the Romans in AD 66”.

    Avraham Tendler said: “During the excavation, we can see that just before the uprising the estate inhabitants filled up rooms near the perimeter of the building with large stones to create a fortified barrier. In addition, we discovered hiding caves hewn into the bedrock beneath the floors. These complexes were interconnected through a series of tunnels, water cisterns, storage pits, and hidden rooms. In one of the adjacent excavation areas, an impressive miqwe was exposed – within an opening inside leading to an extensive hiding complex containing numerous artifacts dating to the Bar Kokhba Revolt”.

    Israel Antiquities Authority

    Interesting discovery and suppose the owners had no idea that their stack would be uncovered some 2000 later! Wonder how !any modern day stackers will have the same outcome? Never to return to claim their so called wealth?
    From Heritage daily.com

    • Xabier says:

      It’s tempting to bury some coins with a note inscribed on lead or some other metal reading:

      ‘No, I really didn’t expect to live to dig them up again!’

      But no doubt the language itself would have been lost by then.

  41. Economics
    Venezuelans Break Off Flakes of Gold to Pay for Meals, Haircuts
    By Alex Vasquez and Ezra Fieser
    October 20, 2021, 8:00 AM EDT
    Hyperinflation has stripped the local currency of its value
    Dollars, pesos, reais and euros are also common alternatives
    A customer places gold wrapped in a crumpled bolivar banknote on to a scale for payment at a pharmacy in Tumeremo, Venezuela.
    A customer places gold wrapped in a crumpled bolivar banknote on to a scale for payment at a pharmacy in Tumeremo, Venezuela. Photographer: William Urdaneta/Bloomberg
    To fathom the magnitude of Venezuela’s financial collapse, travel southeast from Caracas, past the oil fields and over the Orinoco River, and head deep into the savanna that blankets one of the remotest corners of the country.

    There, in the barber shops and restaurants and hotels that constitute the main strip of one dusty little outpost after another, you’ll find prices displayed in grams of gold.

    From Bloomberg.com

    Grams of gold??? Add that to my prepping list?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Maybe “grams of gold” is the future. I would never have guessed. How does a person tell easily whether the gold is100% gold or 10 carat gold?

  42. Malcopian says:

    Dr. Judy Wood, on of my heroes, has a book (a copy of which I own), entitled “Where Did the Towers Go? Evidence of Directed Free-energy Technology on 9/11”.

    It is full of excellent photos and deeply questions the US government’s story of what happened on that day. However, she does not explain why and how this technology was “free-energy”, i.e. costless. Perhaps Gail, as another high-octane female investigator, could contact her and question her about this.

    If we had free energy, the capitalists would not be able to profit from it. They wouldn’t like that. And we could also presumably use that energy in violent fashion, meaning yet more terrorists.

    Beyond that, more free energy would give us the power to despoil the environment even more, in pursuit of materials for our frenetic productivism.

    • Mike Roberts
      Mike Roberts says:

      No energy, utilised by humans, can be “free”. It always takes energy to harvest energy, whether it is food or some other energy. There is always also an environmental cost. For some energy, the cost may be recoverable but not energy to support an industrial society.

    • D. Stevens says:

      If there was some type of ‘free energy’ it would likely be discovered by different people in different places around the same time similar to other developments in the areas of science and technology.

      • CTG says:

        I am not a believer unless you are not from this reality or dimension. There are plenty of talk (also history) of this type of free energy from ether.

        So, if you believe that we have parallel universe, then perhaps in that universe, their laws of physics are different. Perhaps our universe intersect.

        Open up your mind on infinite possibilities. What you see is only real in this reality.

        • Replenish says:

          Kant explores prophecy and apriori knowledge to “uncover the limits to the possible.” I met some student psychonauts at university in the late 90’s who had a “medicinal campout” that resulted in group contact. They enthusiastically shared pages and drawings of an alphabet and a detailed diagram of such a device. Think about the spun out emotional intensity of Harry Vox warning about the Rockefeller “Lockstep” narrative or RIchard Dreyfus furiously sculpting Devils Den and trying to get people to believe him, lol.

    • hard to believe that the notion of ‘free energy’ is being discussed by supposedly rational people.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Oh no…. https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/putin-orders-all-workers-home-week-amid-record-covid-surge

      I know — just inject them with more of the same sh it that failed…. keep on jabbing these CovIDIOTS…. over and and over….

      Or better still — to speed things up — just send every CovIDIOT a gallon of covid vaccine … and 500 syringes…

      And point the MOREONS to this DIY video and tell them to inject once per day forever.

      This will prevent the clinics from being overwhelmed … and we’ll then learn to live with Covid…

      Oh darn … what about Immune Exhaustion… hmmmm… maybe take a nap after each injection?

      This is turning into a colossal joke hahahahaha…. the MOREONS are really really stoooopid… but surely they must be getting a little anxious when they see what is happening …

    • kulmthestatusquo
      kulmthestatusquo says:

      In Korea, there is a legend which is fairly recent.

      In the autumn of 1963, a 9 yrs old girl was brought to the Chunju Jesus hospital, run by American doctors.

      a Dr. Cray diagnosed the girl, and went into the surgery.

      According to legend, Dr Cray took out 1,063 (apparently someone bothered to count all of them) roundworms.

      It is said the girl died anyways , apparently because the doctor spent all the time counting the parasites.

      the movie Parasite didn’t come from nowhere. Korea , and quite a lot of countries without a tradition of boiling water, was rampant with parasites.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The cultures that don’t boil their water mix alcohol with it.

      Cutting trees down is something that can be done with fairly simple tools and human labor. People talk about using renewables. I expect this will mostly take the form of deforesting the land, very quickly. It is one of the few things that can be done to answer the problem of not enough fuel.

      • D. Stevens says:

        Will we’ll see the return of the King and the King’s forest? Peasant can gather fallen branches but don’t cut any trees down without permission.

        • rufustiresias999
          rufustiresias999 says:

          My father, as a kid, just after world War 2, went in the nearby forest to gather fallen branches almost every day. The forest was I guess City property jus as it is now. Grabbing fallen branches was authorized and for free. It was the only source of energy for heating and cooking.
          Today, my father who is now an old retired man with much wealth, plans to buy a brand new car to my mother who is 77 (and still driving)! Maybe an electric car, because he’s a bit concerned by all these environmental things (he truly loves his children and grandchildrens).
          Oh dear! What a strange world we live in.

          • your father is a lesson to us all rufus:

            gather ye branches while ye may

            • kulmthestatusquo
              kulmthestatusquo says:

              Apparently in the country rufus lived the nobles didn’t own the forest.

              If the nobles did they would have shot the ones gathering branches.

            • generally speaking, peasants could collect fallen branches, but not break brannches off trees

              even the nobility figured out that letting serfs freeze to death was a pointless exercise

            • blenheim3
              Jonathan Madden says:

              The British Charter of The Forest was enacted in 1217, and remained on the statute books for 754 years, repealed by a Tory government in 1971.
              It has considerable relevance today, introducing the concept of the commons, and protecting the rights of commoners.
              Its 800th Anniversary was celebrated in Lincoln in 2017, including by drawing attention to fracking and the potential damage it would cause to Sherwood Forest. The Americal Bar Association has noted its influence on the Constitution.
              More now than ever, we need a successor to this Charter, although it is exceedingly unlikely that any counties beyond Europe and the US would contemplate such an egalitarian measure.

              https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/why-youve-never-heard-of-charter-thats-as-important-as-magna-carta/

            • I don’t often post quotes in full, preferring to give a link, But in this case I don’t have one.

              It is a masterly summation of the conditions in the middle ages in England, and elsewhere, written by Robert Crowley in the 1500s. Something for all of us to digest i think, because it rings true right now.:

              >>>>If I should demand of the poor man of the country what thing he thinks to be the cause of Sedition, I know his answer. He would tell me that the great farmers, the graziers, the rich butchers, the men of law, the merchants, the gentlemen, the knights, the lords, and I can not tell who; men that have no name because they are doers of all things that any gain hangs upon. Men without conscience. Men utterly devoid of God’s fear. Yea, men that live as though there were no God at all! Men that would have all in their own hands; men that would leave nothing for others; men that would be alone on the earth; men that be never satisfied.

              “Cormorants, greedy gulls; yea, men that would eat up men, women, & children, are the causes of Sedition! They take our houses over our heads, they buy our lands out of our hands, they raise our rents, they levy great (yea unreasonable) fines, they enclose our commons! No custom, no law or statute can keep them from oppressing us in such sort, that we know not which way to turn so as to live.”[8]

              Condemning “lease mongers that cancel leases on land in order to lease it again for double or triple the rent,” Crowley argued that landlords should “consider themselves to be but stewards, and not Lords over their possessions.”

              “But so long as this persuasion sticks in their minds — ‘It is my own; who shall stop me from doing as I like with my own as I wish?’ — it shall not be possible to have any redress at all. For if I may do with my own as I wish, then I may suffer my brother, his wife, and his children toil in the street, unless he will give me more rent for my house than he shall ever be able to pay. Then may I take his goods for that he owes me, and keep his body in prison, turning out his wife and children to perish, if God will not move some man’s heart to pity them, and yet keep my coffers full of gold and silver<<<<<
              Robert Crowley

      • Thierry Chassine
        Thierry says:

        Instead of cutting trees, there is a lot of dead wood in the forests that can help. Plus, if you remove dead wood, it allow other trees to grow faster by bringing more light to the ground. There are ways to manage our resources correctly, if we educate people. One of the first things to do, and this is right now, is to build forestry schools. I know people working on it in my area (the french Alps).
        Deforestation on the contrary is a plague because it changes the climate and we lose the O2 necessary to our health.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Of course, the rest of the ecosystem depends on the dead wood in the forest. We cannot remove it without causing harm to the forest, just as we cannot areas of trees and plant rows of some kind of different trees to replace those trees. The ecosystem also depends on fires from time to time. Some trees cannot propagate without fires. Of course, we humans don’t like fires. They get rid of the dead wood at the bottom of the forest.

          • Thierry Chassine
            Thierry says:

            Gail, I understand what you mean about preserving the ecosystem and you are right about it. The problem here when you walk in the forests, you can see they are awfully managed and there are means to do much better. The wood industry waste too much, and private owners don’t have any idea how to regenerate the trees.
            The soils are almost dead and the leaves can remain several years on the ground without creating humus. It would be too long to enter into technical details about photosynthesis for exemple but everything is connectd including to human health and there are existant knowledges that have to be developed. I hope I can give more details soon.
            I am currently reading the book the Treesolution from Pieter Hoff that rejoins some of the hypothesis we had, I advise anyone to read it (though he miss the point about O2, the book is worth reading).

            • worldofhanumanotg
              worldofhanumanotg says:

              It would be nice to obtain some hard data on how much biomass you could remove from the ~mature woodland not affecting most of the myriad of ecosystems (we consider wood).

              I’d guesstimate it will be in low %single digits at max. Sounds harsh, but as we know you can draw much more out of woods on y/y basis than that at it tends to look somewhat workable, but the negative effects will be delayed to the observer (species dropping out slowly).. and obviously the other extreme taking out really large chunks, i.e. rapid deforestation noticeable in days/months/few yrs.

              I’ll bet even the most “pristine Alpine” reservation areas of today are just a fraction of the abundance (and wildlife sustenance capability) before humanoids arrived..

        • drb753
          drb says:

          Taking the dead wood will over time deplete the top soil.

          • worldofhanumanotg
            worldofhanumanotg says:

            yes, that’s integral part of what I meant, less (lower q) top soil means less berries, nuts, mushrooms.. and hence fewer birds and other animals..

          • Thierry Chassine
            Thierry says:

            Not really. Most humus comes from the leaves, not wood (actually 75% according to Hoff). The wood burnt will return to the soils throuh ashes (except if it is good enough to build something with).
            Anyway, what we are doing today with forests is the worst management possible. For example, planting trees in an area that have the same size is bad because the light will not reach the lower levels. Having trees wîth different sizes will improve the quantity of light and so photosynthesis and the volume of leaves for the same area. It will bring more birds and animals and consequently more bacteria in the ground. This has been known for centuries.

        • Hello Thierry…. Nice note. I live in the Montagne Ardeche in the Haute loire at 1000 meters altitude. Cold winters just below the plateau of the Mezenc. I am a member of ERE 43 an energy cooperative increasingly focused on responsible use of residual wood for pellet manufacture. I have been collecting wood for years on land owned by various members of the cooperative.
          In fact, land costs nothing here and maintenance and management are not done anyway. The abandoned plateau’s with forests, brushwood etc. are unsuitable for ‘economic felling’, but good for responsible management to maintain and improve the ecological main structures. Together with limited ‘economic felling’, it has provided me with spotty energy consumption in a relatively large Auvergne farm for years.

  43. Fast Eddy says:

    Don’t use ivermectin for COVID-19, Health Canada warns as poison control calls increase

    https://globalnews.ca/news/8283660/ivermectin-health-canada-warning-poison-control/

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Story to suppress the use of ivermectin.

      • postkey
        postkey says:

        “Ivermectin has more than one potentially effective mechanism of action against Covid 19. A major one is its ability to adhere to the Coronavirus Spike1 protein at various strategic points used by the virus to bind and enter our cells. For this reason, unlike monoclonal antibodies, it can act against all variants. By doing so, you prevent the virus from attaching itself to ACE2, which is the main gateway for the virus to enter our cells, and this allows it to reduce the virus’s ability to enter our body. If Covid stays outside of our cells, it becomes easy prey for our immune system, which can get rid of it much more easily. It is important to note that the protein docking region of the virus, the spike spikes, binds not only to our ACE2 receptors, but also to other docking receptors that are very important to the virus, those that depend on sialic acid, Receptor CD147 and on a cholinergic receptor called a7nAChr. I don’t want to get into technicalities, but this premise helps us understand how Covid attacks our body. “
        https://www.costadelsolfm.org/2021/07/14/alessandro-santin-director-del-centro-de-investigacion-de-la-universidad-de-yale-en-eeuu-habla-sobre-la-ivermectina/

    • Xabier says:

      Next up:

      ‘Don’t put a plaster on that cut finger! It’s misinformation that they work!’

      Criminal lies, lie upon lie…….

  44. Malcopian says:

    So, tensions mount around the world. When will the nukes start flying?

    Who remembers when the Russkies nuked Sheffield in 1984? 😉

    • Malcopian says:

      Some of the commentary in this BBC documentary of 1982 reminds me of 9/11 – the scorched cars (toasted cars, as Dr. Judy Wood calls them), and the phrase “Ground Zero”, also used of 9/11, telling us what 9/11 in fact was – a mini-nuke event.

      Q.E.D. – A Guide To Armageddon – Nuclear War Documentary (1982)

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I am not sure if it will be nuclear weapons or taking down each other’s internet or electrical grid. More viruses might be another approach.

      If countries don’t have many fossil fuels, that may be a deterrent to traditional war.

      • NomadicBeer says:

        I agree Gail, I think the nuclear deterrence works. Even if the enemy does not have nukes (or an ally with nukes) polluting the land for thousands of years does not make for a successful occupation (there is not much left to steal).

        Even if countries decide to enter a suicide pact to kill most of their populations (I know, farfetched), nukes are unusable tools and the effects are felt by everyone.

        Have you read Ugo Bardi’s latest (https://thesenecaeffect.blogspot.com/2021/10/the-age-of-exterminations-v-killing.html)?

        One of the points was that even suicidal people prefer to be killed and don’t have the guts to go through with suicide.
        I think this is a big problem with FE’s CEP – unless this is not organized but simply an emerging cause of many players with a death wish collaborating in killing each other.

  45. Lastcall says:

    2021 The Year of the Spike Up; proteins, petrol, propaganda…

    2022 The year of the Spike Down? …; people, politicians, professors of ‘Truthiness’

    • 2021 didn’t take down IC, did it?

      most years are very similar to the previous year.

      next year likely will be a linear continuation of the stumbling bumbling human experiment, and I doubt we will see more truth and justice.

      I can see 2022 from my house.

      • eKnock says:

        You may be right.
        Dec. 6, 1941 was another day in paradise in Hawaii.
        Dec. 7, 1941 had beautiful Sunrise and then….. fire and steel came out of the sky.
        Most days are like the day before except for exceptions.

        • sure, now they are called black swans.

          which are not merely exceptions, but very rare exceptions, and not merely very rare exceptions, but world changing very rare exceptions.

          Oct. 20, 2021 was an okay day though filled with the standard dullness of the slowly creeping early stage of declining net (surplus) energy and the accompanying decline of IC.

          Oct. 21, 2021 hey I could go for a huge black swan, preferably somewhere very far from me, perhaps bigger than Dec. 7, 1941, yes why not much bigger. Bring it on.

          that would be very exciting! (or not.)

      • Xabier says:

        We don’t need to listen for the flapping of a black swan’s wings.

        We can make logical deductions as to the near future.

        All one has to do is observe the blatantly co-ordinated actions of most governments in 2020, plot the trajectory for 2021 based on their very clear intentions, and we can be sure – setting aside economic developments and supply-chain disruption – that the irrationality, authoritarianism, lies, cruelty and even murder we have seen will increase.

        Unless they are over-thrown by massive popular revolts: and that is most unlikely as only a minority of the people in many countries (more perhaps in the US) are at all aware of the implications of their situation and the intentions of the globalists.

        2021 can, at best, only be like 2020 in all its most sinister aspects, but intensified.

        Gird up thy loins!

        • artleads says:

          As clear and concise as only you can make it, Xabier.

          • Xabier says:

            Thanks, Artleads, I wish my prognostications weren’t so gloomy!

            I am watching the fight back in the US with interest and admiration – the new Surgeon-General in Florida made a good, sane, speech.

            Hope you are keeping your chin up!

      • I1 says:

        April 2020 saw <$6 wtic forward price.

        https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html#

        Business as usual for some, masks and jabs for most.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Of course, we are not to the end of 2021 yet, but you might be right.

      It seems likely to be a bumpy ride down, however it occurs.

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