Spike in energy prices suggests that sharp changes are ahead

An analysis of what is going terribly wrong in the world economy

The world economy requires stability. People living in the world economy need stability, as well. They need food every day and a place to live. Children need a home situation that they can count on.

Back in the 1950 to 1979 era, when energy supplies of many kinds were growing rapidly, it was possible to build stability into the economic system: Jobs with a company were often long-time careers; pensions after retirement were offered; electricity was sold through regulated “utilities” that charged prices that wrapped in long-term maintenance of the electric grid and the cost of fuel, among other things.

But as high energy prices hit in the 1970s, the system became more and more strained. The mood changed. Margaret Thatcher became the Prime Minister of the UK in 1979, and Ronald Reagan became President of the United States in 1981. Under their leadership, debt was increasingly used to cover longer-term costs, and competition was encouraged. A person might say that a move toward greater complexity, but less stability, of the economic system had begun.

Now, through several iterations, the economy has become increasingly complex, with less and less redundancy to provide stability. The energy price spike that is being experienced today is a warning that something is very, very wrong. As I see the situation, the trend toward complexity has gone too far; the economic system is starting to break down. Sharp changes appear to be ahead. The world economy is shifting into contraction mode, with more and more parts of the system failing.

In this post, I will discuss some of the issues involved. It turns out that energy modelers haven’t understood how detrimental intermittency really is. They modeled intermittent electricity from renewables (wind, water and solar) as far more helpful than it really is. This has been confusing to everyone. The sharp changes that the title of this post refers to represent an early stage of economic collapse.

[1] If energy supplies are inexpensive and widely available, it is easy to build an economy.

I have written in the past about the need for energy supplies to keep the economy functioning properly being analogous to the need for food, to keep humans functioning properly.

The economy doesn’t operate on a single type of energy, any more than a human lives on a single type of food. The economy uses a portfolio of energy types. These include human labor, energy directly from sunlight, and energy from burning various types of fuels, including biomass and fossil fuels.

As long as energy sources are inexpensive and readily available, an economy can grow and provide goods and services for an increasing number of citizens. We can think of this as being analogous to, “As long as buying and preparing food takes little of our wages (or time, if we are growing it ourselves), then there are plenty of wages (or time) left over for other activities.”

But once energy prices start spiking, it looks like there is not enough to go around. In the absence of ways to hide the problem, citizens need to cut back on non-essentials, pushing the economy into recession. Or businesses stop making essential products that require natural gas or coal, such as fertilizer or fuel additives to hold emissions down. The lack of such products can, by itself, be very disruptive to an economy.

[2] Once energy supplies become constrained, energy prices tend to spike. In the early stages of these price spikes, adding complexity allows the economy to better tolerate higher energy costs.

There are many ways to work around the problem of rising energy prices, at least temporarily. For example:

  • Build vehicles, such as cars, that are smaller and more fuel efficient.
  • Extend fossil fuel supplies by building nuclear power plants, hydroelectric generating plants, wind turbines, solar panels, and geothermal electricity generation.
  • Make factories more efficient.
  • Add insulation to buildings; eliminate any cracks that might allow outside air into buildings.
  • Instead of pre-funding capital costs, use debt to transfer these costs to later purchasers of energy products.
  • Encourage competition in providing different parts of electricity production and distribution.
  • Develop time-of-day pricing for electricity, so as to keep prices down to the marginal cost of production, even though this does not, in total, repay all costs of production and distribution.
  • Cut back on routine maintenance of electricity transmission systems.
  • Purchase coal and natural gas imports using spot pricing, rather than long term contracts, as long as these seem to be lower-priced than long-term commitments.
  • Throughout the economy, take advantage of economies of scale and mechanization. Build huge companies. Replace human labor wherever possible.
  • Stimulate the economy by increasing debt availability and lowering interest rates. This is helpful because a more rapidly growing economy can withstand higher energy prices.
  • Use global supply chains to source as large a share of manufacturing inputs as possible from countries with low wages and low energy costs.
  • Build very “lean” just-in-time supply chains.
  • Create complex financial systems, with debt resold and repackaged in different ways, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds.

Together, these approaches comprise “complexity.” They tend to make the economic system less resilient. At least temporarily, they pass fewer of the higher costs of energy products through to current citizens. As a result, the economy can temporarily withstand a higher price of energy. But the system tends to become brittle and prone to failure.

[3] There are limits to added complexity. In fact, complexity limits are what are likely to make the economic system fail.

Joseph Tainter, in The Collapse of Complex Societies, makes the point that there are diminishing returns to added complexity. For example, the changes that result in the biggest gains in fuel savings for vehicles are the ones added first.

Another drawback of added complexity is the extreme wage disparity that tends to result. Instead of everyone earning close to the same amount, those at the top of the hierarchy get a disproportionate share of the wages. This is what leads to many of the problems we are seeing today. Would-be workers don’t want to apply for jobs, even when they seem to be available. Citizens become unhappy and rebellious. Lower-paid workers may not eat well, so that pandemics spread more easily.

The underlying problem is that population tends to rise, but it becomes harder and harder to produce food and other necessities with the arable land and energy resources available. Ugo Bardi uses Figure 1 to show the shape of the expected decline in goods and services produced in such a situation:

Figure 1. Seneca Cliff by Ugo Bardi.

According to Bardi, Seneca in the title refers to a statement written by Lucius Annaeus Seneca in 91 CE, “It would be of some consolation for the feebleness of ourselves and our works if all things should perish as slowly as they come into being. As it is, increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.” In fact, this shape seems to approximate the type of cycle Turchin and Nefedov observed when analyzing several agricultural civilizations that collapsed in their book Secular Cycles.

[4] An increasing amount of complexity has been added since 1981 to help compensate for rising oil and other energy prices.

The prices of commodities, including oil, tend to be extremely variable because storage is very limited, relative to the large quantities used every day. There needs to be a very close match between supply and demand, or prices will rise very high or fall very low.

Oil is exceptionally important because it is the single largest source of energy for the world economy. It is heavily used in food production and in the extraction of minerals of all types. If the price of oil increases, the price of food tends to rise, as does the price of metals of many types. Oil is also important as a transportation fuel.

In the early days, before depletion led to higher extraction costs, oil prices remained stable and low (Figure 2), as a result of utility-type pricing by the Texas Railroad Commission. Oil prices started to spike, once depletion became more of a problem.

Figure 2. Brent-equivalent oil prices in 2020 US$. Based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Economists tell us that oil and other commodity prices depend on “supply and demand.” When we look at turning points for oil prices, it becomes clear that financial manipulations play a significant role in determining oil demand. Such manipulations lead to prices that have practically nothing to do with the underlying cost of producing commodities. The huge changes in prices seem to reflect actions by central bankers to encourage or discourage lending (QE on Figure 3).

Figure 3. Monthly Brent oil prices with dates of US beginning and ending Quantitative Easing. Later Quantitative Easing did not bring oil prices back up to their prior level.

Quantitative easing (QE) makes it cheaper to borrow money. Adding QE tends to raise oil prices; deleting QE seems to reduce oil prices. These prices have little direct connection with the cost of extracting oil from the ground. Instead, prices are closely related to the amount of complexity being added to the system and whether it is having its intended impact on energy prices.

At the time of the 1973-1974 oil crisis, many people thought that the world was truly running out of oil. The petroleum industry did, indeed, succeed in extracting more. The 2005 to 2008 period was another period of concern that the world might be running out of oil. Then, in 2014, when oil prices suddenly fell, the dominant story suddenly became, “There is plenty of oil. The world’s biggest problem is climate change.”

In fact, there was no real reason to believe that the shortage situation had changed. US oil from shale had a brief run-up in production in the 2007 to 2019 period, but this production was unprofitable for producers, especially after oil prices dropped in 2014 (Figures 2 and 3). Producers of oil from shale are no longer investing very much in new production. With the sweet spots of fields depleted and this low level of investment, it will not be surprising if oil production from shale continues to fall.

Figure 4. US crude and condensate oil production for the 48 states, Alaska, and for shale basins, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.

The real story is that the supply of oil, coal and natural gas is limited by the extent to which additional complexity can be added to the economy, to keep selling prices so that they are both:

  • High enough for producers of these products, so that they can both pay adequate taxes and make adequate reinvestment.
  • Low enough for consumers, especially for the many consumers around the world with very low wages.

Many people have missed the point that, at least since 2014, financial manipulations have not kept prices for fossil fuels high enough for producers. Low prices are driving them out of business. This is the case for oil, coal and natural gas. In fact, low prices caused by giving wind and solar priority on the electric grid are driving producers of nuclear electricity out of business, as well.

Oil producers require a price of $120 a barrel or more to cover all of their costs. Without a much higher price than available today (even with oil prices over $80 per barrel), shale oil production can be expected to fall. In fact, OPEC and its affiliates won’t ramp up production by very large amounts either because they, too, need much higher prices to cover all their costs.

[5] Economists and analysts of many types put together models that give misleading results because they missed several important points.

After oil prices fell in late 2014, it became fashionable to believe that vast amounts of fossil fuels are available for extraction, and that our biggest problem in the future would be climate change. Besides low prices, one reason for this concern was the high level of fossil fuel proven reserves reported by many countries around the world.

Figure 5. Ratio of reported proven reserves at December 31, 2020, to reported production in 2020 based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Even fossil fuel companies started to invest in renewables because of the poor returns experienced from fossil fuel investments. It looked to them as if investment in renewables would be more profitable than continued investment in fossil fuel production. Of course, the profits of renewables were largely the result of government subsidies, particularly the subsidy of “going first.” Giving wind and solar first access when they happen to be available tends to lead to very low, and even negative, wholesale prices for other electricity producers. This drives these other producers of electricity out of business, even though they are really needed to correct for the intermittency of renewables.

There were many things that hardly anyone understood:

  • Energy prices in today’s financially manipulated economy bear little relationship to the true cost of production.
  • Fossil fuel producers need to be guaranteed long-term high prices, if there is to be any chance of ramping up production.
  • Intermittent renewables (including wind, solar, and hydroelectric) have little value in a modern economy unless they are backed up with a great deal of fossil fuels and nuclear electricity.
  • Our real problem with fossil fuels is a shortage problem. Price signals are very misleading.
  • The models of economists are mostly wrong. The use of carbon pricing and intermittent renewables will simply disadvantage the countries adopting them.

The reason why geologists and fossil fuel producers give misleading information about the amount of oil, coal and natural gas available to be extracted is because it is not something they can be expected to know. In a sense, the question is, “How much complexity can the economy withstand before it becomes too brittle to handle a temporary shock, such as a pandemic shutdown?” It isn’t the amount of fossil fuels in the ground that matters; it is the follow-on effects of the high level of complexity on the rest of the economy that matters.

[6] At this point, ramping up fossil fuel production would be very difficult because of the long-term low prices for fossil fuels. Unfortunately, the economy cannot get along with only today’s small quantity of renewables.

Figure 6. World energy supply by type, based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Most people don’t realize just how slowly renewables have been ramping up as a share of world energy supplies. For 2020, wind and solar together amounted to only 5% of world energy supplies and hydroelectric amounted to 7% of world energy supplies. The world economy cannot function on 12% (or perhaps 20%, if more items are included) of its current energy supply any more than a person’s body can function on 12% or 20% of its current calorie intake.

Also, the world’s reaction to the pandemic acted, in many ways, like oil rationing. Figure 6 shows that consumption was reduced for oil, coal and natural gas. An even bigger impact was on the prices of these fuels. Prices fell, even though the cost of production was not falling. (See, for example, Figure 2 for the fall in oil prices.)

These lower prices left fossil fuel providers even worse off financially than they were previously. Some providers went out of business. They certainly do not have reserve funds set aside to develop the new fields that they would need to develop, if they were to ramp up production for oil, coal and natural gas now. Because of this, it is virtually impossible to ramp up fossil fuel production now. A lead time of at least several years is needed, besides a clear way of funding the higher production.

[7] Every plant and animal and, in fact, every growing thing, needs to win the battle against intermittency.

As mentioned in the introduction, humans need to eat on a regular basis. Hunter-gatherers solved the problem of intermittency of harvests by moving from area to area, so that their own location would match the location of food availability. Early agriculture and cities became possible when the growing of grain was perfected. Grain was both storable and portable, so it could be used year around. It could also be brought to cities, allowing people to live in a different location from where the crops were stored.

We can think of any number of adaptations in the plant and animal kingdom to intermittency. Some birds migrate. Bears hibernate. Deciduous trees lose their leaves each fall and grow them back again each spring.

Our supply of any of our energy products is in some sense intermittent. Oil wells deplete, so new ones need to be drilled. Biomass burned for fuel grows for a while, before it is cut down (or falls down) and is burned for fuel. Solar energy is available only until a cloud comes in front of the sun. In winter, solar energy is mostly absent.

[8] Any modeling of the cost of energy needs to take into account the full system needed to “bridge the intermittency gap.”

As far as I can see, the only pricing system that generates enough funds is one that takes into account the full system needs, including the need to overcome intermittency and the need for transportation of the energy to the user. In fact, I would argue that even more than this needs to be included. Good roads are generally required if the system is to be kept in good repair. Good schools are needed for would-be workers in the energy system. Any costs associated with pollution should be wrapped into the required price. Thus, the true cost of energy generation really should include a fairly substantial load for taxes for all of the governmental services that the system requires. And, of course, all parts of the system should pay their workers a living wage.

This high level of pricing can only be provided by utility type pricing of fossil fuels and electricity. The use of long-term contracts to purchase fossil fuels, uranium or electricity can also build in most of these costs. The alternative approach, buying fuels using spot contracts or pricing based on time of day electricity supply, looks appealing when costs are low. But such systems don’t build in sufficient funding for replacement of depleted fields or the full cost of a 24/7/365 electrical system.

Modelers didn’t understand that the “low prices now, higher prices later” approaches that were being advocated don’t really work for the long term. As limits are approached, prices tend to spike badly. Modelers had assumed that the economic system could handle such spikes in prices, and that the spikes in prices would quickly lead to new supply or adaptation. In fact, huge spikes in prices are very disruptive to the system. New supply is what is really needed, but providers tend to be too damaged by previous long periods of artificially low prices to provide this supply. The approach looks great in academic papers, but it leads to rolling blackouts and unfilled natural gas reservoirs for winter.

[9] Major changes for the worse seem to be ahead for the world economy.

At this point, it seems as if complexity has gone too far. The pandemic moved the world economy in the direction of contraction but prices of fossil fuels tend to spike as the economy opens up.

Figure 7. Chart by BBC/Bloomberg. Source: BBC

The recent spikes in prices are highly unlikely to produce the natural gas, coal and oil that is required. They are more likely to cause recession. Fossil fuel suppliers need high prices guaranteed for the long term. Even if such guarantees could be provided, it would still take several years to ramp up production to the level needed.

The general trend of the economy is likely to be in the direction of the Seneca Cliff (Figure 1). Everything won’t collapse all at once, but big “chunks” may start breaking away.

The debt system is a very vulnerable part. Debt is, in effect, a promise of goods or services made with energy in the future. If the energy isn’t there, the promised goods and services won’t be available. Governments may try to hide this problem with new debt, but governments can’t solve the underlying problem of missing goods and services.

Pension systems of all kinds are also vulnerable. If fewer goods and services are being made in total, they will need to be divided up differently. Pensioners are likely to get a reduced share, or nothing at all.

Importers of fossil fuels seem likely to be especially affected by price spikes because exporters have the ability to cut back in the quantity available for export, if total supply is inadequate. Europe is one part of the world that is especially dependent on oil, natural gas and coal imports.

Figure 8. Total energy production and consumption of Europe, based on data of BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. The gap between consumption and production is filled by imports of oil, coal, natural gas and biofuels. Within Europe, countries also import electricity from each other.
Figure 9. Europe energy production by fuel based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

The combined production of hydroelectric, wind and solar and biofuels (in Figure 9) amounts to only 19% of Europe’s total energy consumption (shown in Figure 8). There is no possible way that Europe can get along only with renewable energy, at any foreseeable time in the future.

European economists should have told European citizens, “There is no way you can get along using renewables alone for many, many years. Treat the countries that are exporting fossil fuels to you very well. Sign long term contracts with them. If they want to use a new pipeline, raise no objection. Your bargaining power is very low.” Instead, European economists talked about saving the planet from carbon dioxide. It is an interesting idea, but the sad truth is that if Europe takes itself out of the contest for energy imports, it mostly leaves more fossil fuels for exporters to sell to others.

China stands out as well, as the world’s largest consumer of energy, and as the world’s largest importer of oil, coal and natural gas. It is already encountering electricity shortages that are leading to rolling blackouts. In fact, rolling blackouts in China started almost a year ago in late 2020. China is, of course, a major exporter of goods to the rest of the world. If China has major energy problems, the rest of the world will no longer be able to count on China’s exports. Lack of China’s exports, by itself, could be a huge problem for the rest of the world.

I could continue speculating on the changes ahead. The basic problem, as I see it, is that we have reached limits on oil, coal and natural gas extraction, pretty much simultaneously. The limits are really complexity limits. The renewables that we have today aren’t able to save us, regardless of what the models of Mark Jacobson and others might say.

In the next few years, I am afraid that we will find out how collapse actually proceeds in a very interconnected world economy.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
This entry was posted in Financial Implications and tagged collapse, complexity, economic models, high oil prices, Seneca cliff, stability. Bookmark the permalink.

4,474 Responses to Spike in energy prices suggests that sharp changes are ahead

  1. “‘On life support’: Fears grow that Iran nuclear deal is on verge of collapse…

    “The deal to scale back and rein in Iran’s nuclear programme is in danger of collapse in the face of intransigence by the United States on sanctions relief and ambivalence by a hardline administration in Tehran about the benefits of an agreement it may consider more trouble than it’s worth.”

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/on-life-support-fears-grow-that-iran-nuclear-deal-is-on-verge-of-collapse-b1943512.html

    • “Iran Says It Needs $11 Billion to Develop Southwest Oil Fields…

      ““We need around $11 billion in investment to develop the second phase of the North Azadegan and Yadavaran oil fields, as well as the South Azadegan and Yaran,” Mohsen Khojastehmehr, appointed in September as the new head of the National Iranian Oil Co., said in a statement…”

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-23/iran-says-it-needs-11-billion-to-develop-southwest-oil-fields

      • “Food prices have jumped 61 percent in Iran in the past 12 months compared with the previous 12-month period, the latest figures published on Saturday show.

        “The Statistical Center of Iran, the only government outfit publishing regular inflation and other economic figures, said this was a record inflation rate in Iran.”

        https://www.iranintl.com/en/20211023602453

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Every country, including Iran, needs higher oil prices.

  2. “If China’s economy keeps stumbling, it won’t just take down Beijing — the whole world will collapse with it…

    “The upheaval, spanning multiple industries and vast swaths of the country, is the result of one giant issue: China’s inability to borrow or buy its way out of its current economic crisis.”

    https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-xi-jinping-evergrande-debt-american-world-fallout-2021-10

    • “China’s economy risks slowing faster than global investors realize as President Xi Jinping’s push to cut its reliance on real estate and regulate sectors from education to technology combine with a power shortage and the pandemic.

      “Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. are among those sounding the warning…”

      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-economy-risks-deeper-slowdown-210000747.html

      • “China expands property tax trials in next step of ‘common prosperity’ drive…

        “China has expanded trials for a property tax, a decision that pitches President Xi Jinping against deeply entrenched vested interests across an economy fuelled for decades by real estate development.”

        https://www.ft.com/content/d4b2c109-75dd-4c04-8291-ae4a5016063b

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        According to the article,

        Even before the pandemic hit, China was surprising economists with slower-than-expected growth caused by Beijing’s resolve to ease debt risks, which meant it avoided broad stimulus even as the U.S.-China trade war threatened expansion.

        After modest easing to cushion the worst effects of the coronavirus, its debt-control policy resumed, with real estate companies such as China Evergrande Group feeling the biggest impact.

        This is a chart from Gavekal Research (gathered by The Daily Shot).
        https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Chinas-big-increase-in-credit-came-in-late-2019-Gavekal-Research.png

        This chart relates to China’s credit situation. It looks to me as though private sector credit (bank loans and bonds, I presume) was terribly flat in 2017, 2018, until November or December 2019. Then it suddenly debt suddenly shot up. About August 2021, total credit including government bonds started falling.

        Somehow, this chart doesn’t match my view of “After modest easing to cushion the worst effects of the coronavirus.” I would call the effect huge. In fact, it seems to have started even before the COVID-19 shutdown. Or at least, before it was announced outside the country.

    • Ironic. Communists originally wanted to bring down capitalism. China chilled and built constructive relations with USA in the Deng era, and they ‘opened up’ to global capitalist development. And now, there is the danger that China’s energetic and economic problems will bring down the global economy. Funny? Only in the abstract. To be fair, China’s development has played an important part in keeping the global economy going this long anyway.

    • >>is the result of one giant issue: China’s inability to borrow or buy its way out of its current economic crisis.

      Sounds like cobblers to me. The ‘giant issue’ is that China has a shortage of energy. If the energy is not there, coal, oil, gas, and it isn’t, it makes no difference how much it can borrow.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      China is the world’s factory. The rest of the world cannot do without it.

  3. Student says:

    These are the real Italian protests. Instead of what mainstream media ‘Corriere’, ‘LaStampa’, Repubblica’ and others are saying about some mysterious presence of former terr#ri/s or na7is/.

    These protests are made of normal people who are obliged to spend every week the equivalent of their monthly mortgage on nasal swabs in order to be simply allowed to their work or for their children to simply addend to cultural or sportive meetings.

    A 48 hours mandatory nasal swab for them and not for those who had the Covid-19 leaking vaccine, which allow anyway to spread the virus….

    https://www.byoblu.com/2021/10/24/trieste-chiama-torino-risponde-con-una-marea-umana/

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      It is a sad state of affairs.

  4. Student says:

    It has been published a couple of days ago an interesting article on the current Italian situation.
    I suggest you to read it (maybe with the help of automatic translator).
    It could be interesting for you to know that we are currently leaving a sort of ‘innovative’ experiment.
    All eyes are on what is happening here.
    What will happen here will have repercussions in your Country, expecially if you live in a so called western democratic Country.

    https://lacrunadellago.net/2021/10/21/litalia-al-bivio-verso-la-fine-della-dittatura-mondialista-o-verso-il-grande-reset-di-davos/

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The article is about the protests against the green pass in Italy. This is why one man is protesting:

      This father of a family sat with other people from Trieste on the quay of passage four and in tears he addressed his three children, declaring that what he is doing he is doing for them.

      He does it so that his children are not forced to live in a global authoritarian society in which there are two categories of citizens.

      On the one hand, those who accept to live as slaves to the totalitarianism of the Davos forum and who are granted some minimum rights in exchange for their total submission to the system.

      On the other hand, those who want to continue living as human beings who cannot be deprived of what natural law has given them since birth, that is, the fundamental freedoms without which a human being cannot be called such.

  5. Fast Eddy says:

    Germany records highest daily COVID-19 infections since mid-May

    https://globalnews.ca/news/8291989/germany-covid-case-record/

    What happened to herd immunity with vaccines stopping the spread?

    norm dunc????????? Any other MOREONS have any idea?

  6. jj says:

    If a ballot initiative can be used to legalize marijuana a ballot initiative can be used to allow Ivermectin over the counter. The peoples will is the only way. Not one of the politicians has a spine.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Perhaps some US states?

  7. jj says:

    Dr Pierre Kory testimony to the senate omost a year ago now. He is a man I respect immensely. I would be honored to have him treat me if I was Ill. Too bad I will never enter a medical establishment again.

    Everything he testified is true. Yet no deployment of Ivermectin in the USA. 100s of thousands needless deaths in the USA because of the agenda to inject people with ???? What does a doctor have to do to stop the deaths? This one testified straight to the senate. Does not one politician care about 100s of thousands of easily preventable deaths in the USA? Does not one politician have the huevos to stand up for the people dieing? Tulsi? Anyone? We are begging.

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/YnSppbsgDBYS/

    Oh and just in case somebody hasnt seen it. The 64 clinical study meta analysis of Ivermectin used in the prevention and treatment of covid 19. Its real time so it changes slightly over time. Its pretty unusual to have this much data for a meta analysis. Its rated in the top 1% of meta analysis.

    http://www.ivmmeta.com

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I noticed that the ivmmeta.com link includes the statement:

      “While many treatments have some level of efficacy, they do not replace vaccines and other measures to avoid infection. Only 25% of ivermectin studies show zero events in the treatment arm.”

      This sounds like something that they were required to add, to keep TPTB happy.

  8. for anyone who might care:

    Atlanta wins, goes to the World Series!

    rah rah rah.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Thanks!

  9. The Energy Crisis nobody’s talking about on YouTube…the word is out…

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=J44nBTQxDqk

    Comments…It’s keeping me up at night

    • Sam says:

      Oil will never get there! The economies of the world will crash before then. The interesting questions is will there be a shortage of oil brought to market. I am starting to think that will happen. There is not enough being produced on the short term

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Oil to $300 per barrel and other energy high priced, too. It will sink the economy, first, I am afraid.

  10. Fast Eddy says:

    The New Zealand Health Survey 2019/20 found that: around 1 in 3 adults (aged 15 years and over) were obese (30.9%) the prevalence of obesity among adults differed by ethnicity, with 63.4% of Pacific, 47.9% of Māori, 29.3% of European/Other and 15.9% of Asian adults obese.

    When they waddle up to the gate… it will be difficult to miss … Fast Eddy can hit this with his eyes closed

    https://img.derwesten.de/img/incoming/crop3809162/5112603203-w820-cv16_9-q85/Imported-per-Email-2010-10-08-0.jpg

  11. Fast Eddy says:

    Lithuania vaccinated ~75% of its adults and instituted a very strict vaccine pass program…

    You’ll never BELIEVE what happened next. (Or maybe you will.)

    https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=248

    hahahahaahahahahah HHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHA hahahahaahahahahahahahahaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAhahahahaahahahahah HHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHA hahahahaahahahahahahahahaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAhahahahaahahahahah HHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHA hahahahaahahahahahahahahaHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    https://youtu.be/5CYGJiHI2EU

  12. Fast Eddy says:

    Vaccinated people dying of Covid have average age of 85 and five underlying illnesses

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/20/covid-likely-fatal-old-already-infirm/

    Hey dunc… do you fit into this profile?

    Fast Eddy doesn’t.

    Fast Eddy is only 56 … Fast Eddy is a fitness fanatic… Fast Eddy does not eat crisps or McDonalds… Fast Eddy has zero ‘underlying illnesses’….

    Fast Eddy is not going to die from Covid…

    What’s your health status dunc?

    BTW – the vaccine won’t save you:

    ‘Fully vaccinated’ Canadian nursing home hit with 12 deaths attributed to COVID

    Nearly 85 percent of the inhabitants at the long-term care facility in British Columbia have tested positive despite being immunized.

    https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/fully-vaccinated-nursing-home-experiences-covid-outbreak/

    hahahahahaha…..

    Maybe we can take up a collection to buy you one of these https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=19

    https://s.hdnux.com/photos/01/16/13/53/20495054/3/2300×0.jpg

    https://s.hdnux.com/photos/01/16/13/56/20495239/3/2300×0.jpg

  13. Fast Eddy says:

    CDC Director: “We may need to update our definition of ‘fully vaccinated’”

    By redefining “fully vaccinated”, they can turn millions of double-jabbed people back into “unvaccinated” people and stop them from becoming potential “breakthrough infections” and hurting the vaccine effectiveness stats.

    This will, in turn, camouflage any excess mortality in those who have had the vaccine, for example due to antibody-dependent enhancement, because all those who die will officially be “not fully vaccinated”.

    They’ll likely push it through soon, before this winter’s flu season hits, so any flu deaths can be “unvaccinated covid deaths”.

    And for anybody out there who got double-jabbed thinking they were buying their life back, we’re sorry, but we did warn you this would happen.

    https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=243

  14. SF has surged ahead in the Red C poll tonight. FF/G sent ministers to a centenary celebration of partition this week, which may not have gone down well – what sort of government celebrates the partition of its own country?

    Red C typically finds much lower support for SF than other polls, and their September poll found SF barely ahead for the first time. Other recent polls have shown SF to be around 10 points ahead of the nearest, so the results seem to be consistently up now, with support also increasing among the older and wealthier.

    Red C has them 22 points up on 24 months ago. SF would take more seats in the Dáil than FF and FG combined.

    https://www.businesspost.ie/ireland/sinn-fein-surges-ahead-of-coalition-parties-with-33-support-in-new-red-c-poll-10e3abd9

    > Sinn Féin surges ahead of coalition parties with 33% support in new Red C poll

    The latest Red C poll shows an increase of four points for Sinn Féin, while Fine Gael is down by three points to 25 per cent. Fianna Fáil and the Greens are both down slightly at 12 per cent and 4 per cent respectively

    October 2021
    +/- September 2021

    SF: 33% (+4)
    FG: 25% (-3)
    FF: 12% (-1)
    SD: 6% (+1)
    LP: 5% (nc)
    GP: 4% (-1)
    PBP/S: 3% (nc)
    AÚ: 2% (nc)
    I/O: 10% (nc)

    [Seats]

    SF: 59 (+22)
    FG: 40 (+5)
    FF: 18 (-20)
    SD: 9 (+3)
    Lab: 7 (+1)
    Grn: 6 (-6)
    Oth: 21 (-5)

    • Bei Dawei says:

      It took me a few lines before I realized that all these abbreviations had to do with Northern Ireland. I wish them all well, but don’t much care who wins, or what they ultimately decide to with the country.

      • Fair enough, that is sort of how I feel about China/ Taiwan. 🙂

        • Malcopian says:

          See, you’ve huffed MOTW now, BD. He’ll be back on the pop and will have to attend Mirrors Anonymous again. 😉

        • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
          Ed says:

          Needless to say this is how North America feels about the rest of the world. We wish you all the best but it is your fight.

          • That is very sweet of you.

            SF has a lot of support in the US. 32 million Americans identify as Irish, about 10% of the country, and many of them feel an attachment, and even some responsibility, for the old country. Many of their ancestors departed for the US during and after the Irish Famine, and folk memory can be very long. Their support has been important and valued to the cause of Irish unity.

            • jj says:

              The circumstances of the Irish famine and how they people of Ireland got through it should be a topic of interest for anyone keeping up on current events. Perhaps it it is a symptom of the ugly American that we dont understand the issues. Its much like people outside the USA dont understand racial conflict or the north vs south USA distrust or Hindu vs Muslim conflict in India for that matter. Its somthing that is only understood through direct experience. I would guess I also speak for Ed when I say we wish all residents of that geographic area well! Time to bid that water under the bridge farewell? Good advice for the USA also I think… Easier said than done.

            • Nah. America only supports Israel. Heck, when the time comes, a bunch of Americans including American Irishes will be sent to defend Israel to the very end, which means American Irishes also support Israel.

              Ireland? Maybe 50 spots behind Taiwan, Japan and South Korea?

            • Bei Dawei says:

              Is Ireland under attack, then?

        • Bei Dawei says:

          Whatever happens to NI, they’ll have democracy and human rights. Taiwan, not so much.

          • The ‘me me me alone’ approach is unedifying and unlikely to stir sympathy. The idea, that only your island matters and no other countries in the world matter, gives us an idea of where you are coming from.

            You indicated before that you would favour a World War between USA and China, regardless the devastation and how many people around the world got killed. All on the basis of your ‘beliefs’ about how countries should be run.

            The West went through a period of ideological wars over ‘beliefs’ during the Reformation period and the Wars of Religion between the Protestant and the Catholic states. Since the Treaty of Westphalia geopolitics has been put on the basis of national interests.

            Western states now use ‘beliefs’ like ‘democracy, rights’ or ‘humanitarianism’ as a pretext to fight wars that they already want to fight. You may have got a false impression of how the West functions geopolitically. It does not fight wars around the world for ideological ‘beliefs’ – it uses those ‘beliefs’ as a pretext for its wars.

            Everyone understands that ‘beliefs’ are just a way of justifying power struggles, and of roping other people into one’s own power struggles. ‘All beliefs are will to power.’ No one can plead naivety in this day and age. We can all see what is going on.

            The idea that no one should care about any other countries ‘because Taiwan and its beliefs are just so much more important’ is frankly laughable. If you have zero solidarity with other countries, then do not expect them to have any with you. That is how the world works.

            None of us are the least bit eager to die in a World War just for the sake of Taiwan and its ‘beliefs’ about how countries ought to be run. No one here is your patsy or cannon fodder. You may need to get over that, and to decide whether you want to participate constructively with us on some other basis.

            • Bei Dawei says:

              China is not a danger to the world because of its “beliefs” (this sounds like Cold War dove-talk), but because of its geopolitical designs and Orwellian ethos. If Taiwan falls, then Japan and Korea go next. The USA will become more like Brazil, large but remote, while Europe will be gradually absorbed into Eurasia. You can fight them now, or fight them later when they are stronger (unless we get lucky with economic collapse), or live under the boot of whatever global system emerges. But what’s at stake is the future of the human race.

            • That is self-serving propaganda. China has no designs on Japan or S. Korea. Taiwan is historically a part of China and that is why they want it back. Simple as. It would make no difference to the West even if China took Japan and S. Korea – which it is not going to anyway.

              There is zero chance of USA fighting a war against China. There would be no guarantee that USA would win even if it did – and the costs would in any case be far too prohibitive. If China wants Taiwan back, then that is between China and Taiwan. China has no intentions of fighting with the West.

              If China did economically overtake USA over the next 20 years, then that is how it goes. No global hegemon stays on top forever – and as the fall of the British Empire shows, world war is liable to do far more damage than good for a waning hegemon.

              Taiwan is on its own, and as you said about Ireland, frankly I wish you all well but I could not care less who wins. If the choice is between World War and Chinese occupation of the Taiwan, then I would opt for the latter every single time.

              If you insist that the lives that would be lost in a world war would not matter, then maybe you should end your own now to prove your point. Likely it is only the lives of others, especially us foreigners that do not matter to you.

  15. Malcopian says:

    These stories of supposed nanobots being found in the vaccines are very weird. We do know that secret technology is always being developed in the background, but it can be one or two decades before this technology is revealed to the general public. Would this in fact explain these nanobots?

    Jacques Vallee started off as an astronomer in France but then switched to ufology (he had witnessed a strange flying saucer-type craft above his house in 1955) and also computing (he wrote the first computer messaging program, for ARPANET – forerunner of the Internet) in the USA. He keeps an open mind, and if he suspects human hanky-panky rather than ETs, he says so. A teenage chav in France circa 1980 complained of being abducted by ETs. When Jacques investigated, it turned out that members of the French intelligence services had drugged the lad and done an experimental psyops on him, to see if they could make him believe he’d been abducted by ETs. Mission accomplished! Similar mind control stuff went on from the 1950s onward (google MK-Ultra).

    Coming into this century, the late Dr. Roger Leir (USA) used to remove alleged ‘alien’ (as in ‘ET’) implants from patients. When he attempted to grasp them with his tweezers, they typically moved out of range! Now when I read about these so called nanobots in people’s bloodstream, it reminds me of Dr. Leir. Were his patients the victims of ultra-hi-tech psyops?

  16. Costs to drive an EV compared with a gasoline car are detailed in a report Anderson Economic released Thursday called “Comparison: Real World Cost of Fueling EVs and ICE Vehicles.”

    The study has four major findings:

    There are four additional costs to powering EVs beyond electricity: cost of a home charger, commercial charging, the EV tax and “deadhead” miles.

    For now, EVs cost more to power than gasoline costs to fuel an internal combustion car that gets reasonable gas mileage.

    Charging costs vary more widely than gasoline prices.

    There are significant time costs to finding reliable public chargers — even then a charger could take 30 minutes to go from 20% to an 80%
    ..General Motors and Ford Motor Co. are banking on such a switch. Both are investing tens of billions of dollars to go all-electric in the next two decades. GM has promised to double its revenues largely on the backs of new EVs.

    ….Then, there is the time to drive around to find a commercial charger, time that Anderson dubs “deadhead miles.” Even charging at home on a Level 1 or Level 2 charger is time consuming and expensive.

    The study found that the average cost of a Level 1 charger is $600. To install a Level 2 costs $1,600 because it requires hiring an electrician. An L1 charger uses a 120-volt supply of electricity and can take 20 or more hours to charge, whereas an L2 chargers uses 240 volts and can charge in a few hours.

    Real cost to charge up
    Anderson’s report considers four costs beyond the cost of residential electricity when calculating how much it costs to drive an EV:

    Cost of the residential charger

    Cost of commercial electricity

    An annual EV tax, which in Michigan ranges from $135 to $235, depending on the vehicle model. This is to make up for not paying a gas tax

    Deadhead miles to get to a fast charger
    ….

    “It’s very difficult to charge it up to 100%,” Anderson said. “The chargers slow down and the manufacturers warn you not to do it because there is additional burden on the battery system when you get your vehicle above a 90% charge.”

    More: Ford Maverick hybrid pickup locks down 42 mpg in the city

    More: GMC expects record Sierra pickup sales as it struggles to keep up with demand

    That means if the vehicle advertises a range of 240 miles on a full charge, a driver in reality will get considerably less on, say, an 80% charge, he said. That means a trip Up North could require a few stops at charging stations that can provide an 80% charge in 30 minutes.

    For new EV drivers these costs, time constraints and other considerations are often a surprise, Anderson said.

    “Unlike their reliable gas cars that have 300 or 400 miles of range that can be filled up at a number of gas stations in our country, you have to think about what available chargers you have and plan it out,” Anderson said. “It’s more than range anxiety, it’s a burden of constantly monitoring the charging status

    https://amp.freep.com/amp/6110815001

    I edited the article some other good data left out
    Elon to the resue

    • Hubbs. says:

      My trip to western NY last week went fine. The car’s range is 355 miles on a full tank. I carried 4 Nato 20L (5.2 gall)Jerry cans full of fuel = 20 gallons for another 400 miles range if I needed it. Those cans are good because they have good seals with no gas fumes leaking. Gas weighs about 3.6 lbs a gallon. Add the weight of the Jerry Can and you got a little over 20 lbs per can when filled. I stopped at a deserted exit on my way back home with the warning light for low fuel on and emptied the cans to fill the car tank with a one half a Jerry can of fuel left over. No way in hell would I ever use an EV to make a trip like that.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Friend has a top of the line Tesla — he drove to Dunedin from Queenstown 278 km — was on 10% and still 45 minutes out… had to stop to charge…

        LIE https://insideevs.com/news/428908/tesla-model-s-first-400-mile-ev/

        Oh and BTW – he was telling me that although the car has great acceleration … it’s a nightmare to stop because of all the weight of the battery … he’s almost lost control trying to slow down… and obviously this is very hard on the brakes and tyres…

        But hey … when it’s all about saving the planet … you overlook this stuff…

    • D. Stevens says:

      I’m wondering how cars and their energy use will be rationed in the future? Will price be used to kick people off their cars-bau life style or will some other system of rationing be used? Only essential workers or holders of a ‘green’ pass be allowed to travel? The consensus here is there’s not enough minerals for the batteries or energy in the grid to power a 1:1 replacement of ICE cars or the energy to build all those new EVs or even maintain most of the roads/bridges for much longer? Tough to make predictions about when and how but sometime soon this living arrangement must start winding down. The slow down in new cars and replacement parts has been interesting. I didn’t consider that possibility previously and assumed the cost to fuel the cars would be the issue and not the availability of them. Sometimes I question my sanity because besides for a few corners of the interwebs no one talks about these issues. Everyone in my life might express some concern about CO2 or polar bears but no one thinks we might be car-free in a few years and no idea how that will look. Will we be moving into walkable cities with trams and bicycles or something more horrifying? There seems to be no thought given to it on any level from conspiracy folks thinking it’s just greenie-weenies holding us back to the corporate executives at work focused on increasing how fast we can crank out the truck loads of product or the environmentalists fretting over carbon release. Why has limits on resources, cheap energy availability, and collapse such a fringe weirdo thing to even contemplate? I first learned about PO ideas around 2002, I was in college and trying to figure out the Iraq and Afghanistan war and the media hysteria pushing it with yellow ribbons on cars with propaganda slogans… Don’t have to support the war but support the troops! ugh. The media hysteria around c19 reminds me of the months following 911 complete with propaganda slogans which I find distressing. Wish media and leaders could be honest with us about the challenges we face and how to move forward. Sorry. This is a ramble. Thanks everyone for the comments. I very much enjoy reading and being in this echo chamber.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        There won’t be new cars built. Parts to keep old vehicles running will be in short supply. Roads will be in poor repair. People won’t have jobs to drive to. All of these things will help ration car use.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Thanks! I think of electric cars as being mostly a second or third car for well-off families. It will be mostly driven nearby. The purpose is to impress the neighbors.

      There are subsidies built into today’s prices. This is a way the poor subsidize the rich.

  17. Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
    Ed says:

    Folks are you seeing labor shortages in your country?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      My sister who lives in the Milwaukee area told me on the phone today that she and her husband had liked to go out to Culver’s restaurant in their area, one lunchtime a week. That is now not available because of labor shortages. They are open in the evening and presumably on weekends.

    • houtskool says:

      The Netherlands, shortage of about 300.000 houses. €450.000 for a 2 bedroom appartment and still leftist whining about housing ‘immigrants’ with ‘rights’ bla bla

      Shortages? A bottomless pit of insanity

      • the housing shortage is caused by people like me refusing to die on time

        • houtskool says:

          Or people that write international laws about rights and forget about duties. Exchanging a lame white duck for an islamist is not the solution i am looking forward to.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          You take care of yourself!

    • Jimothy says:

      The other day I tried to eat out in a suburb of a big city. The first restaurant, highly rated, had a sign that said, “No gas. No food. No bread. Open again next week.” This was near Seattle Washington. All other restaurants only opened at 4:30 or so due to labor shortages.

      The home Depot has a huge in your face stand for getting people to sign on, with forms and everything.

    • Jimothy says:

      And, as I mentioned before, a medical facility near me for physical therapy lost a quarter of its staff because they refused the shot

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        They are understand enough to realize that the vaccines have serious problems.

    • Bei Dawei says:

      I don’t notice any here in Taiwan. The government says there is one, but that would be because migrant workers from SE Asia were not being admitted for awhile.

      No shortages in the grocery stores either, except a few odd items that aren’t there anymore.

    • CTG says:

      No shortages of workers but a massive shortage of common sense.

    • jarvis9077
      jarvis9077 says:

      In Canada- Dishwasher wanted. $25 per hour

  18. Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
    Ed says:

    How is Rhinebeck New York doing?

    The local hospital after firing many for lack of experimental gene injection has a five hour wait time in the emergency room.

    From someone who was in hospital yesterday: no cleaning being done over four hour course of visit. Floors dirty, linen covered with some ones hair.

    They will say it is a labor shortage but what they mean is a shortage of cheap labor. The average house price in the village of Rhinebeck is about $700,000. They expect to hire for $12/hr??!!! At $100/hr they will have no shortage of labor.

    The CVS pharmacy picking up a day after prescription was phoned in told it is not ready we are still working on it. Translation we are woefully under staffed we only work if the person is in front of us.

    I have a new line “I know it is not you. Please tell management the customers are very unhappy with the bad service. They need to be less greedy for profit and pay a fair wage so they can adequately staff.” I talk with the store manager who says part of the issue is customers are so angry and they take it out on staff that staff quits. I asked for a corporate phone number. I called but it is not staffed either.

    Build back better meaning you will have no service and you will be happy and you will wait as long as it takes to pay us.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I wonder how the ratings for the hospital will go.

    • worldofhanumanotg
      worldofhanumanotg says:

      Yep, Keisers said it recently as well, that we are near the threshold they had to allow wages adjust, i.e. “cheap labor” wage re-balancing to ~ $50-100, and that will obviously bring about very high real (street level) inflation almost immediately or even onset of unrestrained hyperinflation event.

      The other option is not to do it and the system – understaffed infrastructure crumbles.. in short order.. Basically, the US now either joins South America with their rampant inflation spikes as normal lived through occurrence or the more outlier case of Venezuela with rolling hyperinflation(s) takes place.. I’d guesstimate the latter is perhaps 3-7yrs off still.. So higher inflation it is near term..

      In a way another reason why WEFers went with their particular plan, as it postponed the arrival of this conundrum for ~2-3yrs (from 2019).. so far. As the famous alt rocker once predicted, in the end the capitalists just roll up the nice curtain and you will be left starring at the dirty brick wall..

    • Fast Eddy says:

      What’s the phone number… I’ll call then and scream at the staff … just for fun…

    • Bei Dawei says:

      Home of the Omega Institute!

      • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
        Ed says:

        Omega used to have about 200 unpaid volunteers in the summer. They had a prolific drugs trade and made noise far into the night. The town after ten years forced them to stop. Now about 20 paid staff and quiet time starts at 10pm. Omega has a Caribbean location that may be the new drugs trade spot for them.

        It all started with five dentist who bought a defunct Hasidic summer camp. They pull in millions per year and have houses at the Caribbean location and massive salaries as the board of directors.

  19. Fast Eddy says:

    While recent attention has been focused on Dr. Anthony Fauci’s National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding the genetic manipulation of bat coronaviruses in the same town as the bat coronavirus pandemic emerged, a bipartisan group of lawmakers have demanded answers over ‘sick’ experiments on drugged puppies, according to The Hill.

    “Our investigators show that Fauci’s NIH division shipped part of a $375,800 grant to a lab in Tunisia to drug beagles and lock their heads in mesh cages filled with hungry sand flies so that the insects could eat them alive,” writes nonprofit organization the White Coat Waste Project. “They also locked beagles alone in cages in the desert overnight for nine consecutive nights to use them as bait to attract infectious sand flies.”

    As The Hill’s Christian Spencer writes:

    The White Coat Waste Project, the nonprofit organization that first pointed out that U.S. taxpayers were being used to fund the controversial Wuhan Institute of Virology, have now turned its sights on Anthony Fauci on another animal-testing-related matter — infecting dozens of beagles with disease-causing parasites to test an experimental drug on them.

    House members, most of whom are Republicans, want Fauci to explain himself in response to allegations brought on by the White Coat Waste Project that involve drugging puppies.

    According to the White Coat Waste Project, the Food and Drug Administration does not require drugs to be tested on dogs, so the group is asking why the need for such testing.

    White Coat Waste claims that 44 beagle puppies were used in a Tunisia, North Africa, laboratory, and some of the dogs had their vocal cords removed, allegedly so scientists could work without incessant barking. -The Hill

    https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/fauci-funded-cruel-puppy-experiments-where-sand-flies-eat-them-alive-vocal-cords-severed

    • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
      Ed says:

      Experiments on puppies need answers. Killing millions of humans with a gain of function bio-weapon no answers needed.

    • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
      Ed says:

      Can we remove the vocal cords of the kids and parents who die or are maimed. Scientists can not work with the constant yapping.

    • Xabier says:

      Beagles are used for their sweet temper.

      Moral: don’t be a human beagle?

    • houtskool says:

      Fully agreed FE. The torture we imposed on animals is beyond respect. Way beyond respect.

    • jj says:

      I feel obligated to respond to such a sensationalist headline.

      What we must remember is these actions were taken under the banner of science. If these these actions were taken outside of the banner of science they would indeed be considered criminal. The cruelty of using insects to inflict death as well as the considerable effort taken to remove the dogs ability to vocalize their suffering would indeed result in long prison sentences. These actions would also indicate the strong probability of the perpetrator being a psychopath, someone who feels no empathy or emotions when encountering others suffering. Interestingly there are many who are psychopaths in our society who do not commit crimes but they generally have a hard time interacting with others that experience empathy. Psychopaths genuinely dont understand empathy much like Data on star trek that doesnt experience emotions but longs to.

      Luckily these actions were taken for scientific reasons so we can rest assured that the researchers are not psychopaths! We must remember it is our duty and responsibility to trust the science.

      Recently we have had a incident in which a police officer took actions that were not ok and this has resulted in wide spread change in our police departments. To think that that same process could be applied to the scientific community would be breaking our trust in science. No matter how irresponsible or horrific the actions taken by the researchers sponsored by the NIH appear we must not question their actions because to do so erodes faith in our scientific community. One might question why NIH continues to fund the Wuhan lab and is currently on course to do so until at least 2035 in lieu of revelations that it is a near certainty that the pandemic was released from there. That would be wrong! One might even question whether gain of function research is something that benefits humanity. That would be wrong! What is important friends is we must trust the science even when it violates the basic principles of scientific discovery and standards of conduct in a civil society!

  20. Rodster says:

    Hundreds of GE workers in upstate NY walked off their jobs in protest over vaccine mandates. They were informed because they are viewed as Federal Contractors, testing does not apply to them. I find it how vaccines are good for the Covidiots but not for Congress. They are not required to get vaccinated.

  21. “Is China in Big Trouble?

    “… the more closely you look at how China has been able to keep its economy going, the more problematic it looks. Basically, China has masked underlying imbalances by creating an immense housing bubble. And it’s hard to see how this ends well.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/22/opinion/china-bubble-economy.html

    • “China Earnings to Lose Steam on Brutal Quarter for Biggest Firms.

      “A combination of raw material inflation and weak consumer spending has made the third quarter a brutal period for China’s biggest companies, with property, agriculture and power generation sectors set to show the worst plunges in profit.”

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-23/china-earnings-to-lose-steam-on-brutal-quarter-for-biggest-firms

      • “China ramps up electricity imports from North Korea, Russia, Myanmar in bid to ease power crisis

        “Imports of electricity from North Korea increased by 62 per cent in September compared with the same period last year. China’s power crunch has already had an impact on the economy and has raised concerns ahead of the winter heating season.”

        https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3153342/china-ramps-electricity-imports-north-korea-russia-myanmar

        • jodytishmack
          jodytishmack says:

          I wonder how much of this is due to the upcoming Olympics in Beijing? Chinese leaders are very sensitive to image. They want to project the image of a powerful nation with leaders who know how to run the country and the economy. They cannot possibly tolerate the image of energy shortages during the Olympics.

          I also wonder how North Korea can export 62% more electricity to China? It would have to come at the expense of it’s own people. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/energysource/north-korea-is-trying-to-find-a-way-to-keep-the-lights-on/ I imagine the same is true for Myanmar. Not sure about Russia’s ability to export electricity. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/energysource/north-korea-is-trying-to-find-a-way-to-keep-the-lights-on/ I guess available energy will go to the highest bidder, until they run out of money at least. And then one wonders if military force will be used to secure what China needs? Their ‘belt and road’ initiative was really just a different form of colonialism. Loan poor countries the money to build dams, roads, airports, and ports knowing they can never repay it. Then take the facilities over when they default on loans, allowing your nation to operate with impunity in another country.

          • Hubbs says:

            Good post, J. You must have been reading my mind. China may resort to Japanese tactics of 1930s to insure and secure raw materials and in the case of Taiwan chip technology and production- not through military invasion but indirectly by defanging (somehow, but how?) the US military paper tiger, predicting that once it becomes clearer that the US can not and will not come to Taiwan’s aid, and therefore neither will Japan, S Korea , nor Australia. Taiwan would do a Sudetenland surrender rather than fight. Already Taiwan has difficulty getting its own men to enlist in military service.China of course recognizes its own weakened status especially in view of its sudden increased dependence on energy and food. Will this cause them to act sooner rather than later if they think they can improve their situation or if they think the US will decline more rapidly and become relatively weaker?

            • jodytishmack
              jodytishmack says:

              Thanks for expanding the ideas further. I was wondering why China was suddenly doing all the saber rattling towards Taiwan. I hadn’t thought about the microchip industry or that it could reveal what hand the US is willing to play in defending Taiwan. Very good points.

  22. “[UK] Supermarkets are using cardboard cut-outs of fruit, vegetables and other groceries to fill gaps on shelves because supply problems combined with a shift towards smaller product ranges mean many stores are now too big.

    “Tesco has begun using pictures of asparagus, carrots, oranges and grapes in its fresh produce aisles, prompting ridicule on social media.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/oct/22/supermarkets-using-cardboard-cutouts-to-hide-gaps-left-by-supply-issues

    • “[UK] Food banks see demand soar in wake of ‘nightmare’ universal credit cut.

      “Exclusive: 45 per cent of food banks preparing to cut food parcels or turn people away because of supply problems and rising demand as charity warns: ‘It’s dire out there’”

      https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/food-bank-shortages-universal-credit-b1943326.html

    • drb753
      drb says:

      In perhaps the most famous Pinocchio scene, as seen today with what is happening, he stops a coal seller and begs for food (the book is largely about pre-industrial society, but the coal seller makes a lonely appearance as the purveyor of things to come, although he is pulling his coal cart himself). The seller doubles the offer, if Pinocchio can only pull the cart all the way home. Pinocchio, indignant, tells him he is not a mule, in the process offending the seller who is actually providing the transport energy himself.

      So he tells Pinocchio to eat two slices of his pride, and he hopes that will give him good health. Before we can eat our liberal-capitalistic ideology, which we will, we will have to go through the cutout eating phase.

    • Potemkin supermarkets.

      Carboard cut out fruit and veg aisles.

      Our local Sainsbury was void of its own ready meals – wide space stacked with boxes of lager cans – charming!

      Asda has stopped the beef in black bean sauce – devastating – I liked to serve it with extra bean sprouts and Singapore cabbage leaves, and with a side of roasted Med veg – even the ticket is gone from the shelf, implies discontinuation for the foreseeable.

      Made the mistake of trying corn dogs today – felt full after the first bite, enjoyed the first one but – far too much sugar – managed 3 and chucked the rest. Would have been nice without any sugar, Frankfurters are well tasty anyway. Never again. ‘Trashy’ food – straight in the bin.

      • Delivery chap from the Co-op tells me that they have had sporadic issues with meat, bread, fresh fruit & veg, while some random items like cocoa powder and demerara sugar have been all but unobtainable.

        We have grown very spoilt though. I was in the Soviet Union as it collapsed in the summer of ’91 and their grocery stores really *were* empty.

        I had the curious sensation of growing richer by the day, as the rouble depreciated relative to my $ traveller’s cheques but there was nothing to buy, at least outside the Beryozka stores, which sold western goods at western prices.

        • jodytishmack
          jodytishmack says:

          I often make the point that money is not resources. When there is no food available, or water, or energy, or ____________ (fill in the blank) money won’t help you. Much better to convert money into real resources that will likely increase in value when inflation hits.

          • We keep bags of dried foods and tins at the back of the larder – ‘just in case’. It seems like the least that anyone can do. Britain had panic buying during the first lockdown and we could not get any deliveries for the first few weeks – it was really stressful.

            Most of the stuff that we stocked up with then is still in those bags – pasta, cous cous, noodles, porridge – generally stuff that is cheap, stores well, and goes a long way when needs be. Dried wheat products are easily made palatable with spices and salt, porridge with a sweetener. It sure beats an empty larder the next time that panic strikes.

  23. “Inflation pressure now ‘brutal’ because of supply squeeze, US companies say.

    “Shortages throughout the supply chains on which corporate America depends are translating into widespread inflationary pressure, a string of US companies revealed this week, disrupting their operations and forcing them to raise prices for their customers.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/36f0b102-b9a0-4f52-96b3-fc3a51729375

    • “California ports that move 40% of cargo coming into US are rated among the worst behind third-world countries like Kenya and Ghana:

      “Massive shipping backlogs in Los Angeles and Long Beach continue to cripple supply chain.”

      https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10118457/Californias-ports-rated-worst-world-falling-world-countries.html

      • “A new ‘Marshall Plan’ is needed to combat inflation and supply chain problems…

        “Whether it’s the National Guard, which some have already suggested, or other federal workers, this nation, this administration and this Congress, need to recognize that we are on post-war footing. Normal rules do not apply.”

        https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/22/ron-insana-calls-for-a-marshall-plan-to-resolve-inflation-and-supply-chain-problems.html

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        I wonder if California’s port situation is related to its high cost of doing any kind of industrial activity in the state. It is short on energy supplies of its own. It is located a long way (across the Rocky Mountains), from natural gas and coal supplies, as well as most oil supplies. It has strange environmental laws, seemingly related to its inadequate energy supplies. At one time, prices would be shown in magazines as something like, $10.00 (higher west of the Rockies).

        No one wants to bother upgrading facilities, in light of these problems.

        The state is also more prone to electrical blackouts than most other states, causing a problem for fancy equipment using it.

        • New Mexico facing similar problems, it seems:

          “New Mexico’s largest utility is facing serious challenges finding enough electricity by next summer. Due to the Energy Transition Act of 2019 which forms the cornerstone of Gov. Lujan Grisham’s “Green New Deal” agenda, the San Juan Generating Station is slated to be permanently shut down next June…”

          https://eu.ruidosonews.com/story/opinion/columnists/2021/10/22/new-mexico-facing-its-own-energy-crisis/6136856001/

        • jodytishmack
          jodytishmack says:

          What caused the congestion at the US sea ports, particularly in California? Main reason may be the additional spending that was brought about because of the pandemic stimulus sent to households. The influx of money resulted in a dramatic rise in consumer spending, much of which was on line, much of which comes from China. https://www.wsj.com/articles/consumer-spending-personal-income-march-2021-11619732790 Sea ports were hit hard with the collapse of the Hospitality Tourism business associated with cruise ships, which provide most of the sea port income, along with the current instability of the labor market. This is what has caused congestion at ports and it will not ease for months even years.

          https://www.dcvelocity.com/articles/52775-governments-supply-chain-efforts-fall-short-as-peak-season-looms
          “The unusual pandemic-era demand for goods has exceeded the effective supply capacity for far longer than the system is designed to handle, but supply capacity is very hard to change quickly,” Levy said in a statement. “It takes time to build new ships, expand ports, or recruit and train new truck drivers. In opening the Port of LA full-time, the next question will be whether or not there are enough trucks to carry out the additional volume and how efficiently they can get in and out.

          The administration can and should make the system more efficient, but the core problem will still come down to demand, which our Flexport Platform data doesn’t forecast to recede anytime in the near future,barring an income shock.”

          Gartner’s Whitlock added that the larger question moving forward is how the Biden administration will engage with ports, terminals, shippers, transportation companies, and the like in a conversation about what can be done to address the broader problems affecting supply chain productivity—including the need for digital transformation, visibility, and transparency; making supply chain careers more attractive and competitive; and addressing automation and infrastructure challenges.”

          Well the income shock has arrived in the form of an energy crisis. Higher energy prices will drive up prices even more than inflationary pressure already has. We know energy prices affect everything in the economy.

        • Lidia17 says:

          Below is a thread dated 10/22 from Ryan Petersen, someone who went to investigate the Long Beach, CA, port situation:

          Yesterday I rented a boat and took the leader of one of Flexport’s partners in Long Beach on a 3 hour of the port complex. Here’s a thread about what I learned.

          First off, the boat captain said we were the first company to ever rent his boat to tour the port to see how everything was working up close. His usual business is doing memorial services at sea. He said we were a lot more fun than his regular customers.

          The ports of LA/Long Beach are at a standstill. In a full 3 hour loop through the port complex, passing every single terminal, we saw less than a dozen containers get unloaded.

          There are hundreds of cranes. I counted only ~7 that were even operating and those that were seemed to be going pretty slow.
          It seems that everyone now agrees that the bottleneck is yard space at the container terminals. The terminals are simply overflowing with containers, which means they no longer have space to take in new containers either from ships or land. It’s a true traffic jam.

          Right now if you have a chassis with no empty container on it, you can go pick up containers at any port terminal. However, if you have an empty container on that chassis, they’re not allowing you to return it except on highly restricted basis.

          If you can’t get the empty off the chassis, you don’t have a chassis to go pick up the next container. And if nobody goes to pick up the next container, the port remains jammed.

          WIth the yards so full, carriers / terminals are being highly restrictive in where and when they will accept empties.
          Also containers are not fungible between carriers, so the truckers have to drop their empty off at the right terminal. This is causing empty containers to pile up. This one trucking partner alone has 450 containers sitting on chassis right now (as of 10/21) at his yards.

          This is a trucking company with 6 yards that represents 153 owner operator drivers, so he has almost 3 containers sitting on chassis at his yard for every driver on the team.

          He can’t take the containers off the chassis because he’s not allowed by the city of Long Beach zoning code to store empty containers more than 2 high in his truck yard. If he violates this code they’ll shut down his yard altogether.

          With the chassis all tied up storing empties that can’t be returned to the port, there are no chassis available to pick up containers at the port.

          And with all the containers piling up in the terminal yard, the longshoremen can’t unload the ships. And so the queue grows longer, with now over 70 ships containing 500,000 containers are waiting off shore. This line is going to get longer not shorter.

          This is a negative feedback loop that is rapidly cycling out of control that if it continues unabated will destroy the global economy.

          Alright how do we fix this, you ask? Simple. And we can do it fast now,
          When you’re designing an operation you must choose your bottleneck. If the bottleneck appears somewhere that you didn’t choose it, you aren’t running an operation. It’s running you.

          You should always choose the most capital intensive part of the line to be your bottleneck. In a port that’s the ship to shore cranes. The cranes should never be unable to run because they’re waiting for another part of the operation to catch up.

          The bottleneck right now is not the cranes. It’s yard space at the container terminals. And it’s empty chassis to come clear those containers out.

          In operations when a bottleneck appears somewhere that you didn’t design for it to appear, you must OVERWHELM THE BOTTLENECK!

          Here’s a simple plan that @POTUS and @GavinNewsom partnered with the private sector, labor, truckers, and everyone else in the chain must implement TODAY to overwhelm the bottleneck and create yard space at the ports so we can operate against

          1) Executive order effective immediately over riding the zoning rules in Long Beach and Los Angeles to allow truck yards to store empty containers up to six high instead of the current limit of 2. Make it temporary for ~120 days.

          This will free up tens of thousands of chassis that right now are just storing containers on wheels. Those chassis can immediately be taken to the ports to haul away the containers

          2) Bring every container chassis owned by the national guard and the military anywhere in the US to the ports and loan them to the terminals for 180 days.

          3) Create a new temporary container yard at a large (need 500+ acres) piece of government land adjacent to an inland rail head within 100 miles of the port complex.

          4) Force the railroads to haul all containers to this new site, turn around and come back. No more 1500 mile train journeys to Dallas. We’re doing 100 mile shuttles, turning around and doing it again. Truckers will go to this site to get containers instead of the port.

          5) Bring in barges and small container ships and start hauling containers out of long beach to other smaller ports that aren’t backed up.

          This is not a comprehensive list. Please add to it. We don’t need to do the best ideas. We need to do ALL the ideas.

          We must OVERWHELM THE BOTTLENECK and get these ports working again. I can’t stress enough how bad it is for the world economy if the ports don’t work. Every company selling physical goods bought or sold internationally will fail.

          The circulatory system our globalized economy depends has collapsed. And thanks to the negative feedback loops involved, it’s getting worse not better every day that goes by.

          I’d be happy to lead this effort for the federal or state government if asked. Leadership is the missing ingredient at this point.

          https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1451543776992845834?s=20

          • CTG says:

            Count how many catch-22 or circular problem. “A” did not happen this causing “B” to stall which in turn will aggravate issue on “A”. It is just too complex and it is bound to fail.

            Someone here pointed out, perhaps the late Robert Firth that it is not a negative feedback loop but a “positive feedback with negative consequences”. A negative feedback means the output is constantly attenuated and disappears all together. However in a positive feedback loop, it amplifies. I believe that is what the author wants to say. It is just that the consequence to the positive feedback loop is very negative to the whole world. It will be at one point if time where the whole thing just freeze and fell over at the tipping point. At that point of time, nothing will “unjam” the jam

        • hillcountry – retired electronics manufacturing engineer
          hillcountry says:

          Gail – there was and presumably still is a billion-dollar facility in Victorville designed by Asea Brown Boveri. The input is a million-volt coal-fired DC power generated in Utah I think, (maybe Nevada) some 800-miles distant. Something about I-squared-R transmission cost savings. The facility has giant coils and capacitors and nitrogen cooled thyristors the size of hockey-pucks. It converts the DC to AC and supplies Los Angeles. One has to wonder about the control-system redundancy that’s required, i.e., how many circuit-boards they have stashed.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Raised prices always mean problems for at least some consumers. Consumption tends to fall, pushing prices down again.

      • Hubbs says:

        Sort of reminds me how in aviation, trying to keep an aircraft in straight and level flight even with a good trim adjustment on the elevator becomes problematic if one encounters a phenomenon called phugoid oscillation. For some reason, your aircraft picks up speed in a dive and to control this you pull the nose up, and the speed drops until you go into a stall and then to recover, you have to put the nose down again and start the whole recovery process all over.

        No sooner will they get all these emergency measures to accommodate these port distribution backlogs then the post-clog demand will plummet, as this pig moves through the python and consumers run out of money and demand dissipates. Sort of like expanding the current interstate highways from 4 lanes to six in anticipation of more traffic when they should be focusing on repairing the existing system.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Like how the Boosters will result in Immune Exhaustion … then the plane crashes into the ground at full speed and everyone dies

        • jodytishmack
          jodytishmack says:

          Your aviation analogy is perfect. It reminds me of driving a car in winter and hitting icy roads. Once the car starts to skid you turn into the skid, as it corrects it skids in the other direction, you correct again….and on it goes until the car either encounters clear road and you gain control, comes to a stop, or goes off the road because no matter how you tried to correct the skid the car’s momentum overrode you. Ether way it’s a wild and scary ride when a driver loses control, especially for the passengers.

    • “Business group warns of mass layoffs and ‘catastrophic’ supply chain disruptions from Biden’s vaccine mandate…

      “The National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors, an influential trade group that represents an industry with nearly 6 million workers, is pleading with the administration to delay a December 8 deadline for employees of federal contractors to get vaccinated.”

      https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/22/business/vaccine-supply-chain-biden/index.html

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Couldn’t Biden have figured out the obvious?

        • jodytishmack
          jodytishmack says:

          Politically his mandate made absolutely no sense to me. It could hurt the Dems chances in the midterms and if the US Congress reverts to Republican control nothing of Biden’s promises will become reality. And that doesn’t bode well for 2024. The wisest thing Biden and Dems could have done was to pass the by-partisan infrastructure bill and then use the reconciliation process to pass a voting rights bill rather than a the excessively costly social program bill that few people actually understand, The Dems aren’t picking their fights very carefully.

        • Sam says:

          I keep telling myself the lefties can’t wait for this to be over so they can make everything electric and solar and solve all our energy problems and the righties can’t wait to get back Power so they can drill baby drill ….. it’s dumb and dumber in control in the states. Amazing neither side can admit the real problem. But I guess as soon as you tell them they just shut down….

        • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
          Ed says:

          Biden works for the CCP. He knew this would happen. Crashing America is his job.

          • Tim Groves says:

            This is an explanation that makes a lot of sense. Whoever he works for and whatever his intentions, crashing America is what he’s doing, and he’s doing it to the general applause of his party and of the mass media.

            • assuming you do not jest. (I find it hard to escape that sometimes)

              America is crashing because demand for energy is now greater than supply.

              Same as everywhere else, irrespective of political shenanigans.

              Only the rate of collapse is different, not collapse itself.

              But denial of it remains constant. At least that bit is inexhaustible.

              As do the conspiracies about it.

            • Tim Groves says:

              I make the occasional joke, but I’m serious in contending that Biden and his handlers are deliberately crashing the US economy faster and more catastrophically than would have been the case if he’d not tried to run the country by decree.

              Although as you say, it is crashing anyway, it would have crashed more stylishly, sedately and with greater aplomb had the establishment not cheated the Don out of a second term.

              The Don would have kept America great— whatever that means—by finding ways of maintaining and adequate supply of energy for a few more years.

              Norm, as you know, decisions have consequences that can be immense in the years and decades ahead. As a great grandfather, you must realize that more keenly than most people.

              Even in a finite world, where population is increasing and placing increasing demands on food production and natural resources that will guarantee an economic and social collapse if not addressed squarely, the type of decisions made will have far-reaching repercussions for both future and current generations, including pensioners with the Prudential.

  24. “Soaring energy prices and a slump in the lira are combining to create an unexpected headache for Turkish gas stations: How to quote double-digit prices at the pump?

    “The prospect is rapidly becoming a realistic one, especially after the expiry of tax cuts that have prevented the full costs being passed on to motorists.”

    https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/10/22/pain-at-the-pump-turks-brace-for-double-digit-gas-as-lira-slumps

  25. “Ukraine Offers Russia Gas Shipping Discount to Ease Crisis.

    “Ukraine offered Russia a discount for shipping natural gas to Europe to increase supply and ease the region’s energy crunch, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-22/ukraine-offers-russia-gas-shipping-discount-to-help-easy-cri

    • “Moldova declares state of emergency over gas crisis.

      “Moldova to seek cheaper natural gas from Europe after traditional supplier Russia hiked prices… The eternal flame at a World War II monument in the capital Chisinau has been extinguished due to gas shortages, the defence ministry said on Friday.”

      https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/22/moldova-declares-state-of-emergency-over-gas-crisis

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        According to the article, Moldova is “Europe’s poorest country.”

        Also, it “thanked Romania and Ukraine for already supplying some gas.”

        Each country faces a little different situation.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This discount seems to apply to amounts beyond the original contracted amounts.

      I found this link worked better for me:

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-22/ukraine-offers-russia-gas-shipping-discount-to-help-easy-crisis?sref=eWpk04kZ

  26. “EU summit: Leaders fail to deliver major breakthroughs to tackle energy crunch and Polish legal row.

    “After a two-day summit in Brussels, EU leaders shunned sweeping action and opted instead for moderation to tackle two of the bloc’s most pressing crises: the ongoing energy crunch and the Polish challenge to EU law primacy.”

    https://www.euronews.com/2021/10/22/eu-summit-leaders-endorse-temporary-measures-for-energy-crunch-and-dialogue-for-polish-leg

  27. “A taskforce of former bankers and financiers is helping the UK military sharpen its skills in economic warfare as a bulwark against growing threats including terrorism, cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns.

    “The secretive unit — established by Britain’s Ministry of Defence six years ago to disrupt Isis’ commercial activities in Iraq and Syria — is staffed by a handful of former City professionals with expertise in commodity markets and international money flows.

    “Its specialists are now in increasing demand as adversaries such as Russia and China have exploited the “grey zone” between peace and war, using cyber weapons to target national infrastructure and making commercial investments in sensitive overseas industries.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/af703b19-7e1e-47b0-83fc-4d58d5b4da10

    • “Less than a year after finishing her tenure as the Pentagon’s top weapons buyer, former Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment Ellen Lord’s biggest worry is economic warfare and other “gray zone” activities conducted by China and other adversaries…

      ““We find that our strategic competitors, particularly China, are pretty smart at this, whether that be tying up all the critical minerals that go into our batteries or go into many, many of our parts” for U.S. weapon systems.”

      https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2021/10/19/lord-warns-pentagon-and-industry-to-combat-economic-warfare-in-china

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        If there isn’t enough to go around, it is pretty clear that China will reduce its exports.

  28. Total collaps download 25 per cent

  29. Fast Eddy says:

    A gentle reminder

    The Fukushima nuclear catastrophe could have been far worse, it turns out, and experts say neither the nuclear industry nor its regulators are doing enough to prevent a calamitous nuclear fuel fire in America https://www.publicintegrity.org/2016/05/20/19712/scientists-say-nuclear-fuel-pools-around-country-pose-safety-and-health-risks

    Japan’s chief cabinet secretary called it “the devil’s scenario.” Two weeks after the 11 March 2011 earthquake and tsunami devastated the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, causing three nuclear reactors to melt down and release radioactive plumes, officials were bracing for even worse. They feared that spent fuel stored in the reactor halls would catch fire and send radioactive smoke across a much wider swath of eastern Japan, including Tokyo.

    http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/05/burning-reactor-fuel-could-have-worsened-fukushima-disaster

    Assuming a 50-100% Cs137 release during a spent fuel fire, [8] the consequence of the Cs-137 exceed those of the Chernobyl accident 8-17 times (2MCi release from Chernobyl). Based on the wedge model, the contaminated land areas can be estimated. [9] For example, for a scenario of a 50% Cs-137 release from a 400 t SNF pool, about 95,000 km² (as far as 1,350 km) would be contaminated above 15 Ci/km² (as compared to 10,000 km² contaminated area above 15 Ci/km² at Chernobyl).

    A typical 1 GWe PWR core contains about 80 t fuels. Each year about one third of the core fuel is discharged into the pool. A pool with 15 year storage capacity will hold about 400 t spent fuel. To estimate the Cs-137 inventory in the pool, for example, we assume the Cs137 inventory at shutdown is about 0.1 MCi/tU with a burn-up of 50,000 MWt-day/tU, thus the pool with 400 t of ten year old SNF would hold about 33 MCi Cs-137. [7]
    http://belfercenter.hks.harvard.edu/publication/364/radiological_terrorism.html

    Containing radiation equivalent to 14,000 times the amount released in the atomic bomb attack on Hiroshima 68 years ago, more than 1,300 used fuel rod assemblies packed tightly together need to be removed from a building that is vulnerable to collapse, should another large earthquake hit the area. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/14/us-japan-fukushima-insight-idUSBRE97D00M20130814

    The problem is if the spent fuel gets too close, they will produce a fission reaction and explode with a force much larger than any fission bomb given the total amount of fuel on the site. All the fuel in all the reactors and all the storage pools at this site (1760 tons of Uranium per slide #4) would be consumed in such a mega-explosion. In comparison, Fat Man and Little Boy weapons dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki contained less than a hundred pounds each of fissile material – See more at: http://www.dcbureau.org/20110314781/natural-resources-news-service/fission-criticality-in-cooling-ponds-threaten-explosion-at-fukushima.html

    Once the fuel is uncovered, it could become hot enough to cause the metal cladding encasing the uranium fuel to rupture and catch fire, which in turn could further heat up the fuel until it suffers damage. Such an event could release large amounts of radioactive substances, such as cesium-137, into the environment. This would start in more recently discharged spent fuel, which is hotter than fuel that has been in the pool for a longer time. A typical spent fuel pool in the United States holds several hundred tons of fuel, so if a fire were to propagate from the hotter to the colder fuel a radioactive release could be very large.
    http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_power/making-nuclear-power-safer/handling-nuclear-waste/safer-storage-of-spent-fuel.html#.VUp3n5Om2J8

    According to Dr. Kevin Crowley of the Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board, “successful terrorist attacks on spent fuel pools, though difficult, are possible. If an attack leads to a propagating zirconium cladding fire, it could result in the release of large amounts of radioactive material.”[12] The Nuclear Regulatory Commission after the September 11, 2001 attacks required American nuclear plants “to protect with high assurance” against specific threats involving certain numbers and capabilities of assailants. Plants were also required to “enhance the number of security officers” and to improve “access controls to the facilities”.

    The committee judges that successful terrorist attacks on spent fuel pools, though difficult, are possible. If an attack leads to a propagating zirconium cladding fire, it could result in the release of large amounts of radioactive material. The committee concluded that attacks by knowledgeable terrorists with access to appropriate technical means are possible. The committee identified several terrorist attack scenarios that it believed could partially or completely drain a spent fuel pool and lead to zirconium cladding fires. Details are provided in the committee’s classified report. I cannot discuss the details here.

    http://www.cfr.org/weapons-of-mass-destruction/nuclear-spent-fuel-pools-secure/p8967

    If any of the spent fuel rods in the pools do indeed catch fire, nuclear experts say, the high heat would loft the radiation in clouds that would spread the radioactivity.

    “It’s worse than a meltdown,” said David A. Lochbaum, a nuclear engineer at the Union of Concerned Scientists who worked as an instructor on the kinds of General Electric reactors used in Japan. “The reactor is inside thick walls, and the spent fuel of Reactors 1 and 3 is out in the open.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/16/world/asia/16fuel.html

    If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies. Such a scenario would emit radioactive particles into the atmosphere.

    Pick your poison. Fresh fuel is hotter and more radioactive, but is only one fuel assembly. A pool of spent fuel will have dozens of assemblies. One report from Sankei News said that there are over 700 fuel assemblies stored in one pool at Fukushima. If they all caught fire, radioactive particles—including those lasting for as long as a decade—would be released into the air and eventually contaminate the land or, worse, be inhaled by people. “To me, the spent fuel is scarier. All those spent fuel assemblies are still extremely radioactive,” Dalnoki-Veress says.

    It has been known for more than two decades that, in case of a loss of water in the pool, convective air cooling would be relatively ineffective in such a “dense-packed” pool. Spent fuel recently discharged from a reactor could heat up relatively rapidly to temperatures at which the zircaloy fuel cladding could catch fire and the fuel’s volatile fission product, including 30-year half-life Cs, would be released. The fire could well spread to older spent fuel. The long-term land-contamination consequences of such an event could be significantly worse than those from Chernobyl.

    http://science.time.com/2011/03/15/a-new-threat-in-japan-radioactive-spent-fuel/

    Today there are 103 active nuclear power reactors in the U.S. They generate 2,000 metric tons of spent nuclear waste per year and to date have accumulated 71,862 tons of spent fuel, according to industry data.[vi] Of that total, 54,696 tons are stored in cooling pools and only 17,166 tons in the relatively safer dry cask storage. http://www.psr.org/environment-and-health/environmental-health-policy-institute/responses/the-growing-problem-of-spent-nuclear-fuel.html

    Spent fuel fire on U.S. soil could dwarf impact of Fukushima

    http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/05/spent-fuel-fire-us-soil-could-dwarf-impact-fukushima

    A fire from spent fuel stored at a U.S. nuclear power plant could have catastrophic consequences, according to new simulations of such an event.

    A major fire “could dwarf the horrific consequences of the Fukushima accident,” says Edwin Lyman, a physicist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, a nonprofit in Washington, D.C. “We’re talking about trillion-dollar consequences,” says Frank von Hippel, a nuclear security expert at Princeton University, who teamed with Princeton’s Michael Schoeppner on the modeling exercise.

    ….the national academies’s report warns that spent fuel accumulating at U.S. nuclear plants is also vulnerable. After fuel is removed from a reactor core, the radioactive fission products continue to decay, generating heat. All nuclear power plants store the fuel onsite at the bottom of deep pools for at least 4 years while it slowly cools. To keep it safe, the academies report recommends that the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and nuclear plant operators beef up systems for monitoring the pools and topping up water levels in case a facility is damaged. The panel also says plants should be ready to tighten security after a disaster.

    At most U.S. nuclear plants, spent fuel is densely packed in pools, heightening the fire risk. NRC has estimated that a major fire at the spent fuel pool at the Peach Bottom nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania would displace an estimated 3.46 million people from 31,000 square kilometers of contaminated land, an area larger than New Jersey. But Von Hippel and Schoeppner think that NRC has grossly underestimated the scale and societal costs of such a fire.

    • drb753
      drb says:

      The trick, I think, is in making the fuel pool in such a way that convective air flow would be sufficient. More expensive, yes, but can also run unattended.

    • nielscolding
      Niels Colding says:

      Don’t worry Eddie – in a few years spent fuel Will be a much sought material in molten salt reactors ready to start up soon

      • CTG says:

        That is either a sarcasm or an eternal optimist

        • nielscolding
          nielscolding says:

          Why not try to be a little optimistic – maybe a partial solution to a much bigger problem – you have to get what you can

          https://www.seaborg.com/the-reactor

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Positive delusion … if it keeps you sane why not

          • CTG says:

            It is probably like “I am a little pregnant”. I would rather be a realist than an optimist. As of today, it is not possible to be “optimist”, it is likely to be “deluded”. Optimist=deluded.

            We have gone past the “event horizon” and now very close, if not already here, to singularity.

            If you close your eyes and just picture what is happening around the world, it is basically a fire-fighting and survival mode. It is not a “growth” or “expansion” mode.

            As we are getting closer to singularity, like physics, weird things happen.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        If believing such nonsense makes you sleep better … feel free

        • nikoB says:

          Obviously the problem is known. If there was a fast collapse, there probably is a plan to remove spent fuel and place it in wide dispersed arrangements so that it can’t all catch fire. This would be a priority one would think over other civil emergency issues. I wholly admit that there is no evidence for this policy just speculation.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Oh … so they don’t need to keep it submersed in computer controlled high tech facilities so that it doesn’t burn up and released radioactive toxins for centuries….

            How would the plan work — how do you keep it cool without the ponds?

            Ah… it’s a secret plan… hahahaha

            • nikoB says:

              As I have said before dumping them into the ocean or large water body stops them burning. Can you not in these covidian days not see forced death labour to load them onto trucks and trains and dump them into the sea. I thought you had a good imagination Eddy. Np point worrying about what I can’t control. I hear that one day (6 billion years from now) the sun is going to make the neighbourhood very unpleasant too.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Ya but it would kill everything that lives in the oceans… I am sure that would have no impact on the planet…

              And there is this thing called convection … so the toxins would not remain in the ocean…so they’d be carried by the wind and land and rain and end up on the Doomie Prepper’s veg patch…

            • nikoB says:

              I never said it was a good solution that was pollution free. Nukes were always a bad idea.

  30. Yoshua says:

    China has stopped exporting magnesium. The price has spiked 225%. Europe will run out of magnesium by the end of November. This will force the closure of lot of industries.

    Looks like there will be shortages of food, energy and minerals at the same time.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FCTx1xIWEAEH_ih?format=png&name=large

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The idea of depending upon China for everything was not a very good one!

      It fit in nicely with the idea of lowering local CO2 emissions, however. Kyoto Protocol 1997.

      A temporary band aid for our problems.

    • Not only that but aluminum is also having a shortage.
      Magnesium was a topic by the Car Guys I watch YouTube, this will impact auto manufacturing

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=omtddjp17yE&t=141s

      No one saw this coming! Uhh OFW with Gail saw it big time…home run Daddy

      Magnesium is utilized in many many applications

  31. Malcopian says:

    Nice to know that the World Bank was looking after our health in 2017.

    https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/ALL/year/2017/tradeflow/Imports/partner/WLD/nomen/h5/product/300215

    Now look at the archived version on the Wayback Machine. See the title at top left. Who hacked it? Who’s been Doctoring the Tardis? You can’t trust ANYTHING these days. 🙁

    https://web.archive.org/web/20200905210427if_/https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/ALL/year/2017/tradeflow/Imports/partner/WLD/nomen/h5/product/300215

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Somehow, it looks as if the fact that the medical testing kits that were being traded by all of these countries were in fact imports. A person would also hope that somewhere else, a chart showed China with a huge amount of exports of these kits.

      • Malcopian says:

        But didn’t you look at the title on the second document?

        “COVID-19 Test kits (300215) imports by country in 2017”

        In 2017 ?!

        • drb753
          drb says:

          This is another amazing find…

          • Bei Dawei says:

            So not only did they plan the pandemic in advance, they had already decided what to name it.

          • Student says:

            ‘COVID-19 Test kits (300215) imports by country in 2017’ needs to be understood better.
            Please someone else give his/her comments.
            I have no words at the moment.

            • Student says:

              Maybe is a re-classification of something that was classified in another way before.

              Here you can find the statement that could clarify:

              ‘The data here track previously existing medical devices that are now classified by the World Customs Organization as critical to tackling COVID-19’

            • Student says:

              Another point is that when the database talks about ‘imports’ it talks about generic ‘medical test kit’, while when it talks about ‘exports’ it talks about ‘Covid-19 test’ , but it is something that has been re-classified like Covid test, as indicated in the explanation at the beginning.
              It is anyway very interesting, but it probably doesn’t demonstrate anything.

            • drb753
              drb says:

              Replying to you below. archive.org is supposedly a carbon copy of the page as it was at first publication, that is, as it was in 2017. You draw your own conclusions. I called it an amazing find, and it is.

            • Student says:

              DRB thanks for clarification about archive.org as carbon copy. I didn’t know. So it is really strange!

            • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
              Ed says:

              Most likely the 2017 archive was hacked.

        • Malcopian says:

          Normal “nobody plans pandemics in advance

          any more than they did in 1920”

          Except it’s not really a pandemic. It’s more like one of the periodic flu waves that come and go. 99.98% of the infected survive. And not all those counted as dead of COVID were truly so, as we now know.

          So how do you explain that COVID-19 in 2017, eh, Normal? They tried to hide it but failed. But we know you wouldn’t recognise a cons -pi–cy if one was staring you in the face. Have you found the WMD yet that Iraq was hiding in 2003, then?

          • i think its been established that it’s not a ‘flu wave’

            i’m not conspiracy obsessed, just conspiracy aware.

            groups of people conspire, they always have and will. The Iraq wmd thing was likely a ‘conspiracy’ to initiate warfare and sell wartoys and so make a few people rich

            All wars make a few people rich by the deaths of thousands/millions.

            The US govt ‘conspired’ to allow the mass sale of AR 15s, and the USA is now at war with itself. making a few people rich

            American motor manufacturers ‘conspired’ to close down tramway systems in order to sell more cars–and make a few people rich. No war–but the result was the same.

            what they can’t do is ‘conspire’ for global destruction while at the same time leave themselves somehow immune from the results. Not even Bezos is that daft.

            This global pandemic ‘conspiracy’ will not make people rich.

            Shut down the economy, and Bezos’ pass the parcel business ceases. Money has no value unless it is being exchanged for energy.
            You can ‘possess’ $1 trillion in the bank, But if there’s no means to ‘use’ it, (through energy conversion) you remain a pauper.
            In a shut down world, money cannot be ‘used’. Bezos also becomes a pauper.

            how difficult can it be to figure that out?

            i realise that this exercise in simple logic destroys your cherished conspiracy theories, Insist on keeping them if you must but it will not change reality.

            • Malcopian says:

              “what they can’t do is ‘c – spire’ for global destruction while at the same time leave themselves somehow immune from the results.”

              Of course not, that would be total. Population reduction is the aim, which is partial and can only be achieved randomly, pinball-machine fashion.

            • I’ve presented you with information (not my information) explaining how population reduction would destroy the global commercial infrastructure, and in so doing, the value of money itself, and would leave ‘the wealthy elite’ in a state of poverty along with the rest of us.
              This isn’t just opinion.

              i set it out in detail, not for you particularly, but for all the other conspiracy-mongers who seem irretrievably dug into your entrenched line of thinking.

              That somehow a select group of ‘surplus people’ can be ‘disposed of’.

              now—where have we heard that before? Do remind me. Would you be on the list of the unwanted ones?

              When espousing such ‘selective’ eliminations, does it not occur to you that there would be people involved in the actual disposal?
              And specific places dedicated to such disposal?

              I suggest there would be no shortage of volunteers to run such places. There certainly wasn’t last time.

              After all, leaving bodies lying in the streets would be insanitary, to say the least. As well as a traffic hazard. Already we have piles of babies awaiting disposal—i f certain OFW certainties are to be believed. (I count my offspring night and morning in case of baby rustlers)

              I do wish sometimes, that conspiracy nuts would stop and think them through, item by item, step by step, linking each stage with the one before with workable logic. But that would destroy their own certainties.

              Instead of screaming to anyone who will listen: Bill Gates wants to inject us all with iron filings to…………….. (fill in reason here)
              Or: Jeff Bezos wants the planet for himself his buddies. For what reason exactly? Ah yes—that must be part of the conspiracy i guess? A secret.

              I don’t expect reason to have the slightest effect, so i must leave you embroiled in your theories. But do try to stop and think, instead of surrendering to hysteria.

            • Malcopian says:

              “But do try to stop and think, instead of surrendering to hysteria.”

              I am not hysterical. We have illogical events happening. When I heard that COVID was coming here, I expected to see bodies in the street, or people collapsing. It didn’t happen. Then the lockdowns were instituted – a huge overreaction. First thing that happened here in London, you got more people (the “just about managing”) thrown out of work, so then they couldn’t afford the rent, and they ended up homeless – that was before the state aid came in, and even after it people had to struggle with bureaucrats who wanted to find reasons to deny them aid.

              It was then pretty obvious what would happen to the economy, even with state aid. Deny cashflow to businesses, and it is like cutting off blood-supply to your extremities. And now we see the results in broken supply chains, etc. It was the reaction to COVID, which is no more severe in its effects than the flu of 1957-8 in the UK (when Prime Minister MacMillan was proclaiming we’d “never had it so good”, economically) that broke the economy (even more).

              In 1944 would you have believed what was coming? Would you have believed an atom bomb was possible? Would you have believed what AH and his cohorts had been up to in secret?

              I believed the official US story about 9/11 – until I saw the work of Dr. Judy Wood, among others, and now Heinz Pommer. You too have just denied part of their story – Dubya would have called you too a cscpy. the -or – ist, given what you just written about Iraq and WMD. Perhaps you deserve to be waterboarded?

              The stuff that is going on is just too weird. And why are all these politicians across the world spouting the phrase “Build back better”, when there soon won’t be enough energy left to build much of anything? I’m not hysterical. It’s not in my nature. I’m just extremely mystified by the whole turn of events.

            • Malcopian says:

              I meant to add that it is the state’s reaction to COVID that I find hysterical, Normal. I personally plead not guilty to hysteria. I would absolutely have resisted any lockdown, had I been PM. It has been totally counterproductive.

            • to cover just a few points.

              Even Truman didn’t know about the A bomb, and he was VP at the time. I t was a product of the known laws of physics, by people working within a closed circle at Los Alamos.
              German extermination camps were known about , there was little to be gained from broadcasting it until the camps themselves were opened as proof of it.

              There was purpose behind it.

              The WTC thing has no purpose other than to feed conspiracists, who have lost the power to reason that CIA operatives would have had to crawl all over the buildings for months beforehand, to set it all up–sheeesh–why am i repeating this crap yet again?

              I can find you a doctor/professor somebody or other to ‘prove or disprove’ anything you want.

              *****************

              When we look back, we may well see that Covid was the last straw that broke the camel’s back. Such things can only be seen in hindsight.

              I’ve said many times, that reaction to covid has been a knee jerk reaction. But it is certainly not ‘flu’. And people are dying from it.

              Governments were caught in a vice–damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Do nothing at let people just die? Then you’d be screaming about that i’ve no doubt.

              Our economic system was too stretched to resist its impact. Hence the collapse we are witnessing.

              *****************

              The ‘never had it so good’ thing was correct. (in 1957)

              try to see it in the context of the time. In 1957, the workforce of the 30s was still alive and functioning, with real memories of mass unemployment.
              . By 1957, the economic system was a colossal (post war) energy pump. As far as jobs were concerned–you could take your pick. I know—I was one of them.
              A decent house was 4x the average wage. Now the same house is 10x average wage, +++. That single factor is an economic vice we can’t break free of. The people who actually keep London running can no longer afford to live there.

              why?
              Because a house is a block of embodied energy, and it is energy that is becoming unaffordable.. And millions more people want to share the space we occupy.

              Which is why homelessness is growing. (there is no government plot to make people homeless, just our inclination to reproduce ourselves).

              Politicians must have slogans– the gullible must have something to believe.

              Build back better is as good as any, the link between energy and the economic system is a blank to most people. Politicians know that voters do not think. AH said so. Of course there won’t be enough energy to build anything.
              Few are prepared to think of the horrific consequences of that statement.

              What you see as ‘weird’ is just life proceeding randomly. We (randomly) congregate in millions because cities offer wealth— then blame ‘they’ when we get diseased. Charles Dickens wrote about it in very unpleasant detail.

              We lifted ourselves from the London (and elsewhere) of Dickens by using cheap energy. That energy is now in decline, we are in the early stages of reverting to the life he wrote about.

              Nothing mysterious about it.

              If you see some grand plan involved in it all–then that’s your problem. I’ve offered logic, nothing more.

            • jj says:

              “I do wish sometimes, that conspiracy nuts would stop and think them through, item by item, step by step, linking each stage with the one before with workable logic. But that would destroy their own certainties.”

              Were the 13 million jews killed by the nazis “conspiracy nuts”?

              Were the 66 million Russians killed by the Bolsheviks “conspiracy nuts”?

              Were the millions killed by Pol Pot “conspiracy nuts”?

              I could go on Turkey Armenia ecetera.

              Genocide is a disturbing and repeating event in mankinds history. You can spout all sorts of reasons why it shouldnt occur but it has quite often and quite probably will again particularly in a time of resource depletion.

              You know this Norman. You often speak (wishfully I think) of the probability civil war in the USA. A war is simply genocide that is less uneven.

              I dont understand why you put certain things in boxes that you know to be true. To each his own. Its just strange to me. You seem a honest man yet you deny so many truths.

            • I do not ‘wish’ civil war on anyone.

              I merely point out that when resources run critically short, people fight over what’s left. They deny reality, and blame others for their misfortune. To say i ‘wish it’ is to shoot the messenger. The philosophy of the unthinker.

              Blaming others for misfortune is an exclusively human trait..

              Decide for yourself if that fits in one of my truth boxes.

              the jews killed by the nazis were part of a political dogma, initiated to give ‘purpose’ to the nazi regime. Many jewish industries/properties were appropriated later by nazi leadership for personal gain. (loot) The jews were the ‘focus’ of what was wrong at the time
              this is well documented.

              the Bolshevik revolution required similar ‘purpose’ to give it legitimacy. Stalin simply ‘arrested’ millions of people on trumped up charges and departed them as slave labour, where they were worked to death.
              this is well documented.

              Turkey and Armenians, same again.

              Pol pot had similar motivation, same end result.

              None of the above were ‘conspiracies’, no ‘secret’, the perpetrators just hired murderers to go out and kill people or work them to death.

              On the other hand, current ‘conspiracy nuts’ require that somehow, several billion of us shall be ‘disposed of’ in ways unknown,, by a secret elite who will benefit from such ‘clearance’ because the planet itself will be cleansed and all the resources thereof will be left for the benefit of the remaining ‘rich elite’. One helluva pile of bodies–about 6or 7 billion by my count.

              Unlike the nazis, or the bolsheviks, no one actually knows this ‘elite’, or where they are, or who they are.

              only that we must make way for them. We think it, so it must be. Everybody says so. Where? On ‘social media’—so it must be true.

              you can see why i laugh as i write this. But the certainties of conspiracy must be maintained in the face of all reason.

              the planet is just a lump of rock without people to make it work.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Which geezer is norm?

              What is the purpose of giving the Vaccine to children?

            • eddy

              try to stop using the:
              “have you stopped beating your wife” question.
              It’s as old as the hills, used by those who know no other way of forming the English language into logical format.

              You repeat it endlessly, either that or other predicable, limited subjects. You reveal your limitations. I temper my replies accordingly. (as one would to a 6 year old.)

              You are repeating the same ‘question’ that the moon-nut was repeating to the astronaut in that video i was fool enough to open months ago. Reply of yes or no delivers the answer the nutcase wants.
              Eventually he got deservedly punched—which was confirmation of either or both.

              You have nothing left in the scrabble bag of your limited vocabulary and intellect. Your lifebook falls open at blank pages now.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Yes but what is the reason for giving the injections to children?

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I would advise not treating norm as if he was a rationale person. He’s not.

              There is something .. wrong … with him

            • Malcopian says:

              Normal writes: “The WTC thing has no purpose other than to feed conspiracists, who have lost the power to reason that CIA operatives would have had to crawl all over the buildings for months beforehand, to set it all up”

              All the forensic evidence says that thermite was used. Watch this video from around the 23:30 point, to hear an ex-CIA asset and whistle-blower talk about it. She got sent to prison under the Patriot Act for her pains. But I know you won’t watch, listen, or evaluate, because your mind is closed on the subject. I’ve also in the past put up links before to Dr. Judy Wood’s videos on different aspects of these atrocities, but I know you never have watched them.

          • Malcopian says:

            Normal wrote: “Even Truman didn’t know about the A bomb, and he was VP at the time. I t was a product of the known laws of physics, by people working within a closed circle at Los Alamos.
            German extermination camps were known about ”

            What I asked was – would YOU or people in general have *believed* this in 1944. Answer, no. They would have called them ridiculous c.the or ies.

            • as i said in a previous comment, i can find a prof or doc somebody to say the exact opposite of anything you propose (and vice versa of course).

              >>>>>>>The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and the magazine Popular Mechanics examined and rejected these theories. Specialists in structural mechanics and structural engineering accept the model of a fire-induced, gravity-driven collapse of the World Trade Center buildings, an explanation that does not involve the use of explosives.[3][4][5] NIST “found no corroborating evidence for alternative hypotheses suggesting that the WTC towers were brought down by controlled demolition using explosives planted prior to Sept. 11, 2001.”[6] Professors Zdeněk Bažant of Northwestern University,[7] Thomas Eagar, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology[4] and James Quintiere of the University of Maryland,[8] have also dismissed the controlled-demolition conspiracy theory. <<<<<<<<

              (well they would say that wouldn't they?)

              which is why i do my own reasoning on wacky theories and conspiracies

              The above won't be enough. But there were 2 other planes, one into the pentagon, the other (crashed) destined for the WH or Capitol building.

              these never figure in the 'grand plot' One must assume that if the CIA arranged the WTC hits they must have known about the other 2 planes as well? But no–they are never mentioned.. Inconvenient

              Don't you think this conspiracy caper is being stretched a bit too far?

              *********

              this is why i reject all 'conspiracy' nuttiness. There is no conspiracy to cleanse the world of all us surplus people. We may well all die–but that is a different matter.

              I am demanded to believe the latest (covid) conspiracy, by the same people who have come up with all the previous ones, all of which have been comprehensively debunked by numerous people in numerous reputable scientific disciplines.

              I know my refusal to blindly accept ''The Truth'' is infuriating. Same as the one about medical maniacs coming to steal my great grandkids. Same folks who tell me the moon landing was was faked. All rubbish. Can't help that.
              Refusal to accept my version of the 'truth' leaves me only with indifference. One does not have to 'prove' the Earth is round in an argument with a flat earther.

              But you see the link? I do wonder what the 2022 'thing' is going to be.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              What causing the explosions as the building comes down?

              https://youtu.be/nUDoGuLpirc?t=1

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Why are countries that have high vaxx rates experiencing record Covid Infections?

              e.g. https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=248

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I all this game … Ask a MOREON

            • my mind is far from closed. I check stuff out. (except for eddytubes), because I have a curiousity about what makes society tick.

              out of interest, I checked out Lindauer

              >>>>>>>At a hearing in June 2008, Lindauer told reporters that she had been a CIA asset[34] and said she had “been hung out to dry and scapegoated”.[34] In 2008, Justice Loretta A. Preska of the Federal District Court in New York City reaffirmed that Lindauer was mentally unfit to stand trial, despite Lindauer’s insistence to the contrary.[1][35] Preska ruled that Lindauer’s belief in her connection to the intelligence community was evidence of her insanity.[3<<<<<<<<<

              There's lots more, adding up to Lindauer seeming delusional in the extreme.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              You mean that ossified thing you call a brain?

            • several universities are bidding for it when i’ve finished with it.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I don’t doubt that

            • JMS
              I was reading that report with interest, it seemed to have some merit. —but after a few pages, i was motivated to check back to page 1. Thinking I might have missed something.

              I had.

              don’t know if you have taken the trouble to read the bottom of page 1? (always read the small print)

              “Architects and engineers for 9/11 truth”

              which set off my internal flashing red light.

              I quote (after checking):

              >>>>>Architects & Engineers for 9/11 Truth, Inc. (AE911Truth) is an American non-profit organization promoting the conspiracy theory that the World Trade Center was destroyed in a controlled demolition, disputing accepted conclusions around the September 11 attacks, including The 9/11 Commission Report,[6][7][8] as well as FEMA’s “WTC Building Performance Study” (2002). Their claims and theories lack support among the relevant professional communities.[9][10][<<<<<<<>>>>Richard Gage, a San Francisco Bay Area architect,[13] founded Architects & Engineers for 9/11 Truth in 2006<<<<<>>>>He (Gage) became convinced of the need to create an organization that brings together architects and engineers after listening to an independent radio station interview with theologian David Ray Griffin.[14]<<<<<<<>>>>>David Ray Griffin (born August 8, 1939)[1] is an American retired professor of philosophy of religion and theology and a 9/11 conspiracy theorist.<<<<<<

              Here we go again I thought.

              How did god get involved with 9/11?

              9/11 is irrelevant conspiracy hogwash–but i point it out to make sure the hogwash is poured over all the rest of them.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Hahahaha… are you re tard ed?

              There are nearly 4000 real architects and engineers who have signed this …

              Have a look https://www.ae911truth.org/signatures/#/AE/

              Here’s one example of someone who has signed:

              Cynthia Howard

              AIA

              M Architecture, MIT and Harvard

              Biddeford Pool ME, US

              I have a Masters in Architecture from MIT & Harvard. My private practice since 1978 includes serving as preservation planning consultant for the Boston Redevelopment Authority, HUD, 42nd Street Redevelopment. I am registered in Massachusetts, Maine, and New York. My practice has concentrated on new and renovated coastal homes, and the restoration and adaptive reuse of historic buildings in coast and mill communities. I’ve served as board member for the Boston Society of Architects, as board member and President of AIA Maine, and as President of AIA New England.

              But you refuse to look – or dismiss them as crackpots .. because SNOPES or wikipedia say they are conspiracy theorists…

              I ask again – are you re ta rded?

              In all seriousness.. what is wrong with you????

            • Malcopian says:

              Normal wrote:

              “There’s lots more, adding up to Lindauer seeming delusional in the extreme.”

              Seeming. In your opinion.

              The state has various are ways of dealing with troublesome people.

              1] Put them in prison. Julian Assange.

              2] Put them in a psychiatric hospital. A typical Soviet method.

              3] Tell people they are fruitcakes. Such propaganda will usually ensure that those people are ignored. Lindauer was small beer, so they let her go, then rubbished her in order to neutralise her.

              Normal will always prefer to believe the state.

              In England undercover policemen infiltrated Green groups. One policeman became engaged to one of the women in a Green group. He later disappeared. She investigated, and it turned out he had emigrated to Australia. She later found out that he was an undercover policeman. This was in fact true, and was reported in the British press. By default, Normal always supports and believes the state government, however. There is therefore no point in speaking to him about 9/11. His mind is permanently closed.

            • a few months ago, a british policeman murdered a girl after he had ‘arrested’ her

              a nasty business

              does that condemn the state or the police as a whole?

              As a registered old git, do i avoid doctors because one of them murdered about 200 old folks several years ago?
              I keep away from doctors anyway, but not for that reason.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Of course you make exceptions for the injections and endless boosters… being addicted to them…

              I am wondering … maybe a vet would be more appropriate?

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I really do not know why norm is on OFW… he’s not even qualified to be the water boy.

              It is fun to kick him around though… and we get to look forward each day to his latest illogical comments.

            • Malcopian says:

              Normal wrote:

              “a few months ago, a british policeman murdered a girl after he had ‘arrested’ her. a nasty business. does that condemn the state or the police as a whole?”

              No. He was a criminal, acting alone. The anti-Green operation has involved several undercover policemen over the years and could well be ongoing. Who organised it? The police off their own back? MI5? Who knows. But you are most definitely NOT comparing like with like. That disgusting murder was a one-off crime by an evil criminal, who happened to work for the police but whose crime was most definitely not authorised by the police or state. So stop trying it on, Normal.

              You are too indoctrinated by far. You cannot think outside the box, however much evidence you are shown. Many aspects of the 9/11 story go dead against the laws of physics and are not supported by the forensic evidence.

            • JMS says:

              Oh, so you dismiss the scientific study because you don’t like the association (of engineers and architects by the way) that commissioned and paid for it? OK…..
              I’m a bit surprised though, since I’m not used to see you so distrusful about the honesty and competence of scientists. I wonder if you have something against the University of Alaska?

              P.S. David Griffin is an honest, intelligent and courageous man, who coincidentally is a theologian like other intellectuals I, an atheist, greatly admire, such as Ivan Illich and Jacques Ellul.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I think it’s time for the glue factory for some of the old mules on OFW…. their commentary is of the quality of a drunken demented MOREON

            • i was interested in the paper presented, and read into it.

              but when i find it debunked by a peer group and professional body who do know what it was on about, (as opposed to me, confessing ignorance of the technicalities of it all) then I get suspicious about it

              even more so when a godbotherer is involved.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              But which one is you norm?

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          That title is more than a bit strange.

    • Alex says:

      First, note that the Web Archive snapshot is from September 2020, not 2017. Second, the story is more than one year old (excerpts below).

      https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-covid-worldbank-2017-2018-idUSKBN26025U

      The World Bank told Reuters that these products and product codes predate COVID. They have been used since 2017 – not in relation to COVID-19 but labelled “in much more technical terms that did not mention COVID”.

      In April 2020, the products were relabelled amid the pandemic and the WITS updated its product descriptions accordingly, including those attached to the data from 2017 and 2018, even if the products had not been used in relation to COVID-19 at the time.

      The World Bank said, “In April, given the newfound importance of these products in diagnosing and treating COVID-19, the WHO and the World Customs issued a list of these key products to make it easier to track them—assigning COVID-related descriptions/labels to each of them.

      However, as of Sept. 7, 2020, the COVID-related product descriptions no longer appear on the WITS website pages screenshotted in the Facebook posts. The World Bank told Reuters that in light of misinterpretations, they decided to change the labels again “to make it clear that these were products that predated COVID-19.”

      • Malcopian says:

        A convoluted explanation. It’s hard to know what to believe now. Reminds me of the “Angel is next” story that came out directly after 9/11. Gradually more and more was denied and the official story changed. But there are videos from that time where survivors speak for instance of explosions coming form underground, etc., despite the later denials. So I just don’t know in this case. Changing the history books is a very old trick.

  32. Malcopian says:

    Look at this book title to see the name of its author. FE will LOVE it!

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Presstitutes-Inside-Minds-Fake-Media-ebook/dp/B06XYNK1QN

  33. Alex says:

    When reading the points in section 2 of the article, the first word that comes to my mind is ‘optimization’, not ‘adding complexity’. Sure, most if not all of the mentioned optimization techniques have the side effect of increasing complexity, but that’s probably because optimization through decreasing complexity mostly happens on the fly and is therefore not worth mentioning individually.

    Is adding complexity for optimization reasons automatically a bad thing? Not necessarily. Look at how complex our bodies are, all the layers, structures, hierarchies, interdependencies – none of which could function by itself. Yet here we are.

    On a different note, I wonder where the idea comes from that there’s a one-size-fits-all oil price required by all oil producers for them to be profitable, and furthermore this price stands at $120 per barrel. If this were the case, how could be oil price wars, like OPEC+Russia vs. U.S. frackers or Saudi Arabia vs. Russia (vs. U.S. frackers), possible?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      What tends to happen is governments become more and more dependent on tax revenue from the oil producers, in large part because the oil available allows the population to grow greatly. These people need food, and this can only be obtained through subsidized imports. Indeed, the requirements of all countries grow quite high, because of the needed tax revenue. EROEI estimates don’t take this into account.

  34. Yoshua says:

    Corona viruses use one receptor to infect human cells…SC2 uses five receptors to infect cells. How is it even possible to create a spike protein that can do this?

    In addition the virus can infect cats, mice, minks, ferrets, monkeys… This virus is beyond Gain of Function technology.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FCO3m5bXoAcDsEM?format=png&name=small

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I don’t know anything about this, but it doesn’t look good.

      Does vitamin D help at all with respect to the vulnerability of all of these other receptors?

      • drb753
        drb says:

        no, vitamin D simply acts like a limiting factor for cytokine storms, not allowing them to go over a limit which would kill the patient. The immune system is the definition of complexity. It works well, and it evolved over a matter of days (although adapt would be a better word). Viri, as you know, evolve over a matter of years and months. But the IS, being complex, depends on the nutrient supply chain. a system without vitamin D is like a car without brakes.

        I don’t think anything helps with respect to the vulnerabiities, you just have to evolve different receptors. You just get enough zinc, and that kills most viri if you can get it into the cells.

        • Artleads says:

          I think the efficacy vitamin C is underestimated.

          • drb753
            drb says:

            vitamin C main role is in limiting the oxidative damage. The immune system does some really nasty things to kill microbes, such as generating water peroxide or bleach. Generally during a fever you sustain substantial oxidative damage. It is a support role.

            It will also act like a mild anti-viral, but probably that is because zinc is notoriously difficult to get into the cell, and a small acidic molecule such as vit.C helps. Hydroxychloroquine is a much better ionophore, though.

            • artleads says:

              Being quite deficient in technical knowledge, I’m grateful for this.

              How do you get and understand the dosing for Hydroxychloroquine?

              I’ll also say that I was a person who got extremely sick from colds, always having it reduce me to days in bed. Some 40 or so years ago, I learned that heavy dosing of Vit C could help. I haven’t had a cold since. Maybe I’ve been lucky too, however.

            • drb753
              drb says:

              In those days, the oxidative damage may have weakened you a lot and kept you in bed longer. Or perhaps you could not transport sufficient ions into cells. For me, what did the trick of never getting sick again was modest amounts of vit. D (I am around 40 ng/ml, which is not a lot).

              I do not know Hydroxy. dosages, though it is all but certain that the WHO will have those somewhere.

  35. MCW says:

    Seems to me Gail is communicating high level,though basic, concepts in system-subsystem theory such as beginning, middle and ending systems collapse, input and output, several layers energy, financial, economic systems,etc, applied to understand subsystem boundaries and interactions and emergent developments making up part of the global system of interconnected nations. Gail superbly uses sequences of words, sentences, paragraph, metaphors, analogies, etc to communicate these concepts when applied using evidence. cause she communicates go through text and video and podcast with a largely objective systems science authorial voice but happily calls in her gently emotional and subjective voice voice with vignettes And practical examples from every day life. Her Christian Lutheran world view helps us psychologically absorb things which might be difficult for us and others indeed. Some say there’s only a fraction of Plato‘s 10% can think rationally to an extent. Thank you Gao.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Glad you like the way I approach the subject.

      • drb753
        drb says:

        I, too, can’t say enough good words about your site. You also attract some really good commenters, another quality of yours.

      • artleads says:

        This is brilliant. I’ll copy and paste it with the hope of studying it later. A big problem we have is time. We have to work in real time far more than we do. We have global technology but not global culture. Global culture would be the endless multiplicity of local cultures, not the totalitarian one we have now. There is too much information to digest, and we have to work in a more coordinated fashion, less individualistically, more coordinatedly, more on the species level…

  36. MG says:

    The fight against the harsh clmt requires huge amounts of energy. As we do not have that energy, the most probable outcome of the actual fight against the clmt chng is the depopulation.

    • it’s not that the klymitt is much harsher at all, one deegree warmer WOW! OMG!, it’s that there are now almost 8 billion people who potentially will be targeted by any harsh weathher, so that’s 8x when the population was only 1 billion.

      mostly only cluelllesss radicccalll leffftists think that throwing money at their delusssional perception of a problem will solve the imagined problem.

      this is small potatoes compared to an icce age, which is hugely devastating to animal populations. A deegree or two warmer is much better!

      but yes:

      net (surplus) energy has peaked and is now probably already decreasing, and it’s baked in the cake that the human population will be decreasing after a lag time, perhaps a decade or two, but probably less.

  37. Lizzie says:

    Hello Gail

    Thank you for a very interesting article. Now that many of us know what’s coming,
    are we doomed? JM Greer says collapse won’t happen overnight.
    I’m writing this in Wellington NZ. It’s a warm, sunny day and there are lots of power boats in the harbour, and planes and helicopters buzzing around.
    The majority of buildings are multi storey. Not Dubai, but all will have lifts. I lived in the UK for 20 years, returned home last year.

    My ancestors arrived in NZ from Scotland a mere 150 years ago. They lived first near Eddie, in the Nevis Valley near Queenstown. It’s harsh. No one lives there now.
    There were no roads, no houses, no glass for the windows in their stone cottages. My lot built a hotel, no longer there but I you can see it if you search on Google. Nevis Hotel.
    The population of NZ before pakeha arrived was under 120K. Maori were hunters and collectors and at war with themselves, tribal, deadly wars. The population today is around 5m. But. My friend’s father, now 95, ploughed farmland with teams of horses when he was a lad.
    So much has changed and in 150 years, but NZ is – or could be – self sufficient in food, water, energy (not petrol). I wonder how many people could be supported these days, sans petrol. Pakeha brought the wheel and farming.

    Could we reverse tine and live more simply?

    Best wishes
    Lizzie

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Do you have the horses and the tools that the horses would use? Do you have people who know how to use them? Do you have the knowledge and seeds for the combination of crops that would need to be grown, including feed for the horses?

      Would people be willing to live in stone cottages without glass windows and without running water again?

      I am afraid we are kidding ourselves if we think a transition can really be made.

      • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
        Ed says:

        I think people talking about transition need specialist language. People will be living in stone cottages without glass because it is better than sleeping on the field. They do not need to like it. It will be a forced transition for the few who make it.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        But it gives people hope… and if you crush hope watch out…

        People will even embrace the notion of an global authoritarian government and living like a communist peasant… because it’s still living … the CEP is anathema and will not be considered.

    • NZ is one of the few places in the world seen as potentially safe–which is why wealthy people want to go there, lots of space for only 5m people, so yes could be self sufficient, something like the uk around 1800, basically an isolated island, but much further away from anywhere else than we in uk.

      But as your emperor, (eddy) correctly points out, it wont be left to itself post collapse.

      the only way you/we will live more simply is when such living is forced upon us, and even then we will deny that it need be so, and that it is happening at all.

      which will of course make the situation even worse.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      https://www.odt.co.nz/lifestyle/magazine/life-nevis

      I’ve driven the nevis road a few times… spectacular…

      Unfortunately the spend fuel ponds will deliver their deadly payload here… it will just take a little more time

  38. THE CENTRAL BANKERS’ LONG COVID: AN INCURABLE CONDITION

    BY FABIO VIGHI

    OCTOBER 18, 2021

    “With regard to a potential recession, financial analyst Mauro Bottarelli summarised the communicating-vessels logic of the pand-economy as follows: ‘a state of semi-permanent health emergency is preferable to a vertical market crash that would turn the memory of 2008 into a walk in the park.’ As I tried to reconstruct in a recent article, the ‘pandemic’ was a lifeboat launched to a drowning economy. Strictly speaking, it is a monetary event aimed at prolonging the lifespan of our finance-driven and terminally ill mode of production. With the help of Virus, capitalism attempts to reproduce itself by simulating conditions that are no longer available.

    “Here is a summary of Covid’s economic rationale. The September 2019 bailout of the financial sector – which, after eleven blissful years of Quantitative Easing, was again on the verge of a nervous breakdown – involved an unprecedented expansion of monetary stimulus: the creation of trillions of dollars with the magic wand of the Federal Reserve. The injection of this inordinate amount of money into Wall Street was only possible by turning the engine of Main Street off. From the point of view of the short-sighted capitalist mole, there was no alternative. Computer money created as digital bytes cannot be allowed to cascade onto economic cycles on the ground, as this would cause an inflationary tsunami à la Weimar 1920s (which ushered in the Third Reich), only much more catastrophic for a stagnant and globally interconnected economy.

    “The purpose of the ‘pandemic’ was to accelerate the pre-existing macrotrend of monetary expansion, while postponing inflationary damage. Following the Federal Reserve, the world’s central bankers have created oceans of liquidity, thus devaluing their currencies to the detriment of populations. While this continues, the transnational turbo-capital of the elites keeps expanding in the financial orbit, absorbing those small and medium size businesses it has depressed and destroyed. In other words, there is no such thing as a free lunch (for us). The Central Bank’s money-printer works only for the 0.0001% – with the help of Virus, or a global threat of equal traction.

    “At present, it looks as if central bankers are indulging in the noble art of procrastination. The Fed’s board will convene again in early November 2021, with taper (reduction of monetary stimulus) announced to start in December. However, with the Covid bubble deflating, how will the elites deal with zero interest rates and direct deficit financing? In more explicit terms: what new ‘contingent event’ or ‘divine intervention’ will get them out of trouble? Will it be aliens? A cyber-terrorist attack on the banking system? A tsunami in the Atlantic? War games in Southeast Asia? A new War on Terror? The shopping list is long.

    “…However, as Covid reminds us, financial acrobatics of the current magnitude only work under emergency cover: blockades, lockdowns, restrictions, etc. The purpose of the cover-up is twofold: 1. To conceal the sinking of the Titanic (finance-driven ‘work society’); 2. To coordinate the implementation of a colossal monetary reset based on economic depression and centralised control of people’s lives.

    “Separating the population on the basis of vaccination status is an epoch-making achievement typical of totalitarian regimes. If resistance is quashed, a compulsory digital ID will be introduced to record the ‘virtuousness’ of our behaviour and regulate our access to society. Covid was the ideal Trojan horse for this breakthrough. A global system of digital identification based on blockchain technology has long been planned by the ID2020 Alliance, backed by such giants as Accenture, Microsoft, the Rockefeller Foundation, MasterCard, IBM, Facebook, and Bill Gates’ ubiquitous GAVI. From here, the transition to monetary control is likely to be relatively smooth. CBDCs would allow central bankers not only to track every transaction, but especially to turn off access to liquidity for any reason deemed legitimate. The ‘digitisation of life’ project also includes an ‘Internet passport’ which, subject to periodic review, would exclude from the web anyone considered undeserving. Should the social credit score fall below a certain level, finding a job, traveling, or obtaining loans would depend on willing subjection to ‘rehabilitation programmes’. Presumably, there will be a black market for the outcasts.”

    https://thephilosophicalsalon.com/the-central-bankers-long-covid-emergency-noise-and-conspiracys-best-kept-secret/

    The author, Fabio Vighi, doesn’t address the energy predicament, but he seems to know what’s up.

    • Tim Groves says:

      Will the unvaccinated be kept in camps and harvested for their uncontaminated blood and organs? With the residue used to make lampshades and soap?

      I had thought the game plan was going to be based on Nineteen Eighty-Four with a bit of Brave New World thrown in for good measure. But from recent reports, it now seems likely that the controllers are emulating The Time Machine, transforming themselves into Molochs and the rest of humanity into Eloi.

      The Normies are prototypical Eloi, conditioned as they are to respond to government messages in the media as unthinkingly as the Eloi responded to the sound of a siren. If you’ve ever envied domesticated animals living in domestic bliss without a care in the world, here’s your chance to become one. You’ll own nothing….. but you’ll be happy!

      • CTG says:

        Will the unvaccinated be kept in camps and harvested for their uncontaminated blood and organs? With the residue used to make lampshades and soap?

        Hey Tim… you copied my movie script that I wanted to sell to Hollywood… I mentioned that months ago.

        Things are seriously surreal…

      • Xabier says:

        It seems, so Tim.

        Klaus Schwab likes to muse on the managing of relations with the less-modified, mostly unimproved, ‘humans’.

        Oh dear, what is a Digital Superman to do? Problems, problems……

        Just as old Adolf speculated about the managing of the ‘inferior’ Slavs once he had enslaved them.

        ‘I’ll let them into the cities once a year, to marvel at our Aryan greatness’ was one of his tea-time conversational set pieces.

    • DB says:

      Thank you, Azure. He makes some interesting observations and interpretations of the financial side of the COVID crisis. At the end of his piece, though, he devolves into word salad, Marxist, postmodernist babble.

  39. Foolish Fitz
    Foolish Fitz says:

    Interesting link from John Steppling

    “Last week, the CDC announced a surprising finding: “Delta infection resulted in similarly high SARS-CoV-2 viral loads in vaccinated and unvaccinated people.” Public officials had known from the early days of vaccine development that vaccinated people could catch COVID-19, but the assumption had been made that they were not going to be spreaders of COVID-19.”

    https://twitter.com/johnsteppling/status/1451460443759861760?s=20

    A bit behind, but your thoughts are reaching a larger scope of people.

    The slow grind of logic prevails, always.

  40. kulmthestatusquo
    kulmthestatusquo says:

    Right now, as the world’s resources dwindle, a deadly struggle between the whites, who still control the FIRE industries, and the nonwhites , doing the dirty work, is inevitable. (There are some overlaps but they can be easily ignored.)

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/263455/primary-energy-consumption-of-selected-countries/

    China 145 exajoules
    USA 88
    India 32
    Russia 28
    Japan 17
    Canada 13.6
    Germany 12.1
    Iran 12.0
    Brazil 12.0
    Korea 11.8
    Saudi Arabia 10.6
    (Others are smaller than that)

    Out of 382.1 exajoules,
    “Western” countries (USA, Russia, Japan, Canada and Germany) are consuming 158.7 exajoules, even if we consider Japan a “Western” country.

    The rest, 58.5% of the world , is spent by nonWestern countries.

    The balance of power of the earth has already shifted to the side of nonwhites.

    With colonialism continuing, China would have been divided into various spheres of influences. (Fuck John Hay. Without him, China would have been divided into several countries.) There would be no “India”, and Persia and Saudi Arabia would have been British puppet states. There would be no Korea; it would be part of Japan.

    Assuming “China” is divided into Russian, Japanese, British, French and German zones and leaving the useless interior for the Chinese,

    US 88
    British Empire 87.1 (India + Canada + 1/5 of China + GB 6.9 + Australia 5.6), not counting interests in Persia, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere.
    Japan 57.8 (Japan + Korea + 1/5 of China)
    Russia 57 (Russia + 1/5 of China. Central Asia, Poland, etc not counted.)
    Germany 41.1 (Germany + 1/5 of China , plus Austria and several central European countries not counted)
    France 35.7 (France 6.7 + 1/5 of China)
    Brazil 12.0.
    Japan could have been ganged up by the West later, dividing Korea and Japan itself in another war.

    How the West is going to reverse this imbalance of power is the big question the West faces, and I don’t see a good ending coming from this.

    • Hubbs says:

      In my mind, it is sort of a double hypococrisy to criticize the Chinese for making all the “stuff” we westerners feel are entitled to buy at slave labor and fresh air prices.

    • The ‘West’ is such a boring concept, is anyone even moved by it?

      The simple answer is that it is not going to ‘reverse’ anything – and it is not worth you angsting about it.

      Likely you are just bored and looking for some ‘meaning’, some grand ’cause’ – some drama.

      The religious interpretation of the world is gone – what is it ‘all for’ now, if anything?

      The whole thing is coming to an end soon enough, anyway.

      Perhaps you need a girlfriend to give an outlet to your instincts.

  41. CDC director: U.S. may change definition of “fully vaccinated” as boosters roll out

    Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Friday the U.S. “may need to update” its definition for what it means to have full vaccination against COVID.

    The big picture: The CDC and the FDA have officially approved boosters with every authorized vaccine in the U.S. for people who meet specific requirements. Walensky explained that since not everyone is eligible for a booster, the definition has not been changed “yet.”

    Currently, the CDC’s definition is the following: “Fully vaccinated persons are those who are ≥14 days post-completion of the primary series of an FDA-authorized COVID-19 vaccine.”
    What they’re saying: “We have not yet changed the definition of ‘fully vaccinated.’ We will continue to look at this. We may need to update our definition of ‘fully vaccinated’ in the future,” Walensky said during a press briefing.

    She also encouraged those eligible to get boosters: “If you’re eligible for a booster, go ahead and get your booster,” she said.

    https://www.axios.com/cdc-fully-covid-vaccinated-definition-update-5c2312d9-64f4-4bb7-a289-04c00889a573.html

    It must be fun to frequently move goalposts and change definitions. I feel sorry for anyone who was coerced into taking the jab to save their job. It’s clear from the above that they’re unlikely to be left alone going forward. Their employer will be on their ass again in no time, just as soon as the CDC changes the definition of “fully vaccinated.”

    • JMS says:

      That is more than certain, Azure.
      It’s obvious since March 2020 that the state of emergency/exception is here to stay, fueled by “Pandemic” (R) or any other kind of mov(i)e. here’s no way back.
      When governments begin to rule by decrees, that override all laws and all constitutional “guarantees” of the recent past (but which in some countries were centuries old), that means there is not even a trace of democracy left.
      So surely all the goal points can be shifted at will by the owners of the narrative that justifies the neo-scientific mobility of all goal posts.The essential for the owners is to secure consensus, controlling the narrative. Witha that, the rest comes easy.The art of deceiving isn’t really hard to master, not least because the human world is mostly composed of fools (that is, people desperate to believe in good things and happy ends)

      • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
        Ed says:

        JMS thanks for stating the important point centuries old rights have been crushed.

        • JMS says:

          It’ s a fact that in the last 20 months almost all the fundamental rights in any liberal constitution have been eliminated: right of assembly, right of speech, right of movement, right of access.
          And the fact that this proccess is cynically camouflaged by a profuse granting of identity rights to all sorts of minorities is just an expression of humor on the part of the narrative managers’.

          But that this suppression was achieved peacefully, and even with the warm approval of the sheep, I confess it surprised me a little. I had never had much of an opinion about humanity, but didn’t expect it would be so easy to manipulate the behavior of billions of humans with such a weak boogeyman as a pandemic. Amazing.

          • Throughout the scamdemic, I’ve wondered whether the “profuse granting of identity rights to all sorts of minorities” has been an effort to placate and pacify those groups while the grinding down of fundamental rights for all continued unabated.
            At the end of the Great Reset, when all lives have been reduced and stripped of their rights, slogans such as “Black Lives Matter” will ring hollow and provide cold comfort.

          • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
            Ed says:

            The whole world folded without a fight. I also am amazed.

    • Mrs S says:

      There is another reason why they’re changing the definition of fully vaccinated.

      If those who refuse a booster jab are then declared officially unvaccinated, that means that any ADE deaths will appear to be in the unvaccinated group.

  42. Student says:

    Their work has just started…

    Richard Hatchett has recently declared that the new challenge is to create a new vaccine able to fight all Coronavirus.

    You can find the news on the king ot the Italian mainstream media ‘Corr/er# della S#r@’

    https://www.corriere.it/esteri/21_ottobre_18/richard-hatchett-cepi-la-sfida-vaccino-universale-contro-tutti-coronavirus-ac7e310c-3024-11ec-9d51-3a373555935d.shtml

    Cepi involves Davos members, WHO, Gavi, B/ll G@tes and others well known friends (please make your additional researches on Cepi…)

    This is their official website:
    https://cepi.net/

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Your body already makes antibodies that fight all versions of the illness. All that it takes is catching the disease.

      Getting better after catching the disease takes requires reasonable, inexpensive treatments. Taking vitamin D beforehand helps, too.

    • Xabier says:

      Thanks, Student.

      We are clearly going to face a relentless drive to inject everyone for whatever spurious pseudo-scientific pretext.

      Anyone who does not submit will not be deemed a ‘responsible citizen’, no exemptions will be allowed.

      This is the essence of Totalitarianism, with a novel 21st century Bio-Digital twist.

      ‘All Together. Love Together’!

      We might add that this is like the pressure to conform to tribal customs, or face expulsion from the compliant collective.

  43. eddy

    can i ask you a small favour?

    can you let me have the name of your Rhinoceros hide supplier? I know you use powdered horn for other purposes.

    I have to ask you, because it is technically now illegal to possess it.

    You obviously have a source….i promise not to divulge those sources if i am caught in possession of it

  44. Yoshua says:

    Thx Gail! It looks like we are at a breaking point.

    Herd immunity isn’t coming. Everyone in Iran seems to have been infected…many twice…and new waves are just coming and going. Nothing will stop this virus.

    Harvard2TBH is saying that the spike has three HIV gene sequences spliced into it… although they are separated…they seem to operate as if they were connected. There’s some very advanced genetic engineering on this virus.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/RougeMatisse/status/1448909737224032261

  45. Malcopian says:

    Back in 2005, I read Long J H Kunstler’s “The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-first Century”. This excerpt chilled me to the bone at the time:

    “The Long Emergency is going to be a tremendous trauma for the human race. It is likely to entail political turbulence every bit as extreme as the economic conditions that prompt it. We will not believe that this is happening to us, that two hundred years of modernity can be brought to its knees by a worldwide power shortage. The prospect will be so grim that some individuals and perhaps even groups (as in nations) may develop all the symptoms of suicidal depression. Self-genocide has been within the means of mankind since the 1950s.”

    Sixteen years later, it seems quite prophetic. We are almost there. And look at how Ugo Bardi just referenced suicide in his blog, “The Seneca Effect”:

    https://thesenecaeffect.blogspot.com/2021/10/the-age-of-exterminations-v-killing.html

    • i read it back then too

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Ugo gives a disturbing look at one aspect of history in Germany. I would have a hard time writing a post like his.

  46. MG says:

    A very good documentary about the depopulating Russia and its oil production in Khanty-Mansiysk region of Siberia.

    https://youtu.be/tTbsSR6IRTY

    • Wow.

      “In 1950, the EROI of global oil production was really high, at about 44:1 (meaning, for every unit of energy we put in, we were getting a whopping 44 out). Yet as the graph below from the new study illustrates, this value has undergone a shockingly steep decline.

      “By 2020, it reached around 8:1, and is projected to decline and plateau to around 6.7 from 2040 onwards.

      “By 2024 – within the next four years – the amount of energy we are using for global oil production is going to increase to 25% of energy production. In other words, the world will be using a quarter of the energy produced from oil just to keep producing that oil.

      “But instead of getting more efficient, fossil fuel technologies are getting less efficient – which is why the quantity of energy we need to keep producing oil is exponentially increasing.

      “By 2050, fully half of the energy extracted from global oil reserves will need to be put back into new extraction to keep producing oil. The authors have an interesting name for this self-defeating phenomenon: they call it, “energy cannibalism.”

      • This is why I say that the rapid (and exponentially changing) downward slope of net available energy due to diminishing overall EROEI is the biggest threat to humanity over the next 10 years.
        We may be on the steep part of the Energy Seneca cliff and that is scary because negative change picks up speed as it progresses progress.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          These modelers overlook how interconnected the system is, and the impact problems with the financial system will lead to, in my opinion. They tend to model too much future energy as being available.

      • nielscolding
        Niels Colding says:

        Are these Numbers pure heat or the heat converted into movement?
        Could you please tell me that?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This is a Nafeez Ahmed article, making an EROEI argument about oil. If it could calculate “delivered to user” EROEIs for coal and natural gas, they would probably come out badly as well. I know that EROEIs for coal delivered to the user were falling rapidly in China, a few years ago, when researchers whom I know looked at the issue.

    • Hubbs says:

      I first stumbled into this concept several years ago at Steven St Angelo’s site http://www.srsroccoreport.com and it hit me like a ton of bricks. “Of course!” I said to myself in my EUREKA moment.

      They call if EROI which I think is a bit of a misnomer because that implies a financial dilemma in that if we make it “profitable,” then we can get all the FF we need. Instead, I favor the thermodynamic limitations of FF extraction imposed by this energy cannibalisim with the term EROEI. Hence adding the “E” to the acronym. Actually, it is both EROI and EROEI as we are burning the candle at both ends- 1.)thermodynamically taking more and more energy to extract energy, and 2.) financially going into more and more debt to finance energy extraction.

      But a decline in energy availability will cause the decline in an economy to the point that it will outpace the declining energy availability in a preverse negative feedback race to the bottom. Oil prices remain low because the economy is decelerating at a faster rate- hence demand destruction exceeds declining EROI and EROEI affordability of extraction. Oil prices stay low in the long run. I’m still trying to get my head around this.

      But as I like to digress, it reminds me of the famous line in my favorite movie of all time – Breaker Morant. It’s about scapegoats, but this line applies to these Green Energy scheme which in the end may only modulate the steady decline in FF production.

      “Forget it Major. It’s a sideshow of the war.”

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJkoZhHuWuk @ 1:35:14

  47. Hubbs says:

    On my usual “prepper” searches, I came across this.
    https://www.americanpartisan.org/2021/10/karen-kingston-exposes-the-vaccine-bioweapon-whats-in-it-that-harms-us-how-it-tracks-humans/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-last-newsletter-total-posts-from-our-blog_773

    What is with all this “magnetism” @22:40? I wish they would try to clarify this. Does this mean that the minute they inject you, the local site is bolused with enough of these nano magnetic particles to have local magnetic properties, or, if you attached a magnet to your body, do these nano magnetic particles concentrate/migrate to the site where you placed the magnet before they enter the cells?
    I mean, come on, your blood has iron in the core of the hemoglobin molecule, and iron is magnetic. What’s the difference/threshold? This theory has more bugs in it than my Word for Windows Microsoft Program! (Word was better in 1995.)

    And then @ 1:15:35 they mention that some vaccines may be placebos, given to certain “important” people or that a certain number are deliberately blank in order to lull the people with enough “safe injectees” to not frighten the herd into a mass stampede away from these injections. It would be a very complex multivariable analysis to sort this complex interplay of monitoring, data reporting, gauging the variable of public fear and dose “modification” depending on a social “super spreadder” score on distribution control—all of which I keep going back to in my analogy of a Ponzi Scheme: The original Ponzi works by fraud, greed and the need to recruit ever more investors, whereas this COVID Ponzi works by the need to recruit ever more injectees though fear, not greed. But both are based on fraud and deception.
    In a Ponzi, the problem becomes managing to pay off the existing investors through new investors to get existing investors to stay in the scam. In this COVID scam, the problem is the need to falsify the VAERS data in order to not scare away future injectees and conflate vaccine deaths from natural covid deaths. Difficult to do when lethality is so small.
    Meanwhile, like the need to overcome redemptions in a traditional PONZI, the COVID scam needs more injectees to overcome increasing natural herd immunity which exposes the spike protein injection’s ineffectiveness at best, and outright disease causing in the event of creating immune deficiency, viral mutation escape, auto immune disease, cytokine induced hypersensitivity, sterility, myocarditis and eventual cardiomyopathy, resulting in the long haul effect of declining cardiac output and heart failure. It’s a race against time.

    The censorship is so great that in a way, it’s s shame that people like Karen Kingston who may have accurate information are having to rely on platforms which by necessity have to resort to over the top self-promotion, with the hosts often interrupting to give their useless two cents or injecting off topic opinions like religion. When these guests are trying to advance such theories, which may verge on unproveable, it helps to have a credible platform.

    I see this reliance on The Last American Vagabond. A guest like Whitney Webb can’t get a word in edgewise because this bloviating host Ryan Cristian keeps interrupting.
    Whitney Webb put out an interesting article on Moderna a few weeks ago. Which has probably already been posted here previously.
    https://mail.yahoo.com/d/folders/1/messages/AIBJnD0ZBXY6YWBwUwx7UCWxwkg

    Anyway, it will be very interesting, maybe horrifying, if the CDC and FDA give the go ahead for making test subjects out of 5 year olds. It is utter madness and tyranny.

    • Xabier says:

      Here in the UK, children of 12 to 15 are being encouraged to use their half-term holiday to book in to a vaxx clinic, to ‘save lives, Xmas and our freedoms’.

      Tony Blair is pushing child vaccination.

      Can we imagine greater evil?

      Unfortunately, probably yes.

    • drb753
      drb says:

      I have seen with my own eyes a rare earth magnet sticking to the point of vaccine (same day as the shot). This was in Italy. On the other shoulder muscle it did not stick. I let people know and a number of them failed to see any effect (all concentrated around one campus area in the Midwest). The rare earth magnet was neodymium, 0.8 inches across, 0.65 T surface field.
      So I have no doubts that different vaccines are being distributed. Needless to say, vaccines should not be magnetic.

      • I tested my wife’s arm with a neodymium magnet following her Janssen injection. Same afternoon. She was up for the test, having read the magnetism rumors online. The magnet didn’t stick to her arm at the injection site nor the surrounding area. We’re both aware that this doesn’t mean that the poison her employer coerced her into taking is safe, just that it isn’t magnetic.

        I don’t doubt your story drb.

    • Alex says:

      Magnetic covid vaccines are a nefarious high-tech tool of the Great Resetters, as demonstrated in this short video:

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Things like magnets and dimes stick to oily skin. This explains the strange sticking phenomenon.

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