Spike in energy prices suggests that sharp changes are ahead

An analysis of what is going terribly wrong in the world economy

The world economy requires stability. People living in the world economy need stability, as well. They need food every day and a place to live. Children need a home situation that they can count on.

Back in the 1950 to 1979 era, when energy supplies of many kinds were growing rapidly, it was possible to build stability into the economic system: Jobs with a company were often long-time careers; pensions after retirement were offered; electricity was sold through regulated “utilities” that charged prices that wrapped in long-term maintenance of the electric grid and the cost of fuel, among other things.

But as high energy prices hit in the 1970s, the system became more and more strained. The mood changed. Margaret Thatcher became the Prime Minister of the UK in 1979, and Ronald Reagan became President of the United States in 1981. Under their leadership, debt was increasingly used to cover longer-term costs, and competition was encouraged. A person might say that a move toward greater complexity, but less stability, of the economic system had begun.

Now, through several iterations, the economy has become increasingly complex, with less and less redundancy to provide stability. The energy price spike that is being experienced today is a warning that something is very, very wrong. As I see the situation, the trend toward complexity has gone too far; the economic system is starting to break down. Sharp changes appear to be ahead. The world economy is shifting into contraction mode, with more and more parts of the system failing.

In this post, I will discuss some of the issues involved. It turns out that energy modelers haven’t understood how detrimental intermittency really is. They modeled intermittent electricity from renewables (wind, water and solar) as far more helpful than it really is. This has been confusing to everyone. The sharp changes that the title of this post refers to represent an early stage of economic collapse.

[1] If energy supplies are inexpensive and widely available, it is easy to build an economy.

I have written in the past about the need for energy supplies to keep the economy functioning properly being analogous to the need for food, to keep humans functioning properly.

The economy doesn’t operate on a single type of energy, any more than a human lives on a single type of food. The economy uses a portfolio of energy types. These include human labor, energy directly from sunlight, and energy from burning various types of fuels, including biomass and fossil fuels.

As long as energy sources are inexpensive and readily available, an economy can grow and provide goods and services for an increasing number of citizens. We can think of this as being analogous to, “As long as buying and preparing food takes little of our wages (or time, if we are growing it ourselves), then there are plenty of wages (or time) left over for other activities.”

But once energy prices start spiking, it looks like there is not enough to go around. In the absence of ways to hide the problem, citizens need to cut back on non-essentials, pushing the economy into recession. Or businesses stop making essential products that require natural gas or coal, such as fertilizer or fuel additives to hold emissions down. The lack of such products can, by itself, be very disruptive to an economy.

[2] Once energy supplies become constrained, energy prices tend to spike. In the early stages of these price spikes, adding complexity allows the economy to better tolerate higher energy costs.

There are many ways to work around the problem of rising energy prices, at least temporarily. For example:

  • Build vehicles, such as cars, that are smaller and more fuel efficient.
  • Extend fossil fuel supplies by building nuclear power plants, hydroelectric generating plants, wind turbines, solar panels, and geothermal electricity generation.
  • Make factories more efficient.
  • Add insulation to buildings; eliminate any cracks that might allow outside air into buildings.
  • Instead of pre-funding capital costs, use debt to transfer these costs to later purchasers of energy products.
  • Encourage competition in providing different parts of electricity production and distribution.
  • Develop time-of-day pricing for electricity, so as to keep prices down to the marginal cost of production, even though this does not, in total, repay all costs of production and distribution.
  • Cut back on routine maintenance of electricity transmission systems.
  • Purchase coal and natural gas imports using spot pricing, rather than long term contracts, as long as these seem to be lower-priced than long-term commitments.
  • Throughout the economy, take advantage of economies of scale and mechanization. Build huge companies. Replace human labor wherever possible.
  • Stimulate the economy by increasing debt availability and lowering interest rates. This is helpful because a more rapidly growing economy can withstand higher energy prices.
  • Use global supply chains to source as large a share of manufacturing inputs as possible from countries with low wages and low energy costs.
  • Build very “lean” just-in-time supply chains.
  • Create complex financial systems, with debt resold and repackaged in different ways, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds.

Together, these approaches comprise “complexity.” They tend to make the economic system less resilient. At least temporarily, they pass fewer of the higher costs of energy products through to current citizens. As a result, the economy can temporarily withstand a higher price of energy. But the system tends to become brittle and prone to failure.

[3] There are limits to added complexity. In fact, complexity limits are what are likely to make the economic system fail.

Joseph Tainter, in The Collapse of Complex Societies, makes the point that there are diminishing returns to added complexity. For example, the changes that result in the biggest gains in fuel savings for vehicles are the ones added first.

Another drawback of added complexity is the extreme wage disparity that tends to result. Instead of everyone earning close to the same amount, those at the top of the hierarchy get a disproportionate share of the wages. This is what leads to many of the problems we are seeing today. Would-be workers don’t want to apply for jobs, even when they seem to be available. Citizens become unhappy and rebellious. Lower-paid workers may not eat well, so that pandemics spread more easily.

The underlying problem is that population tends to rise, but it becomes harder and harder to produce food and other necessities with the arable land and energy resources available. Ugo Bardi uses Figure 1 to show the shape of the expected decline in goods and services produced in such a situation:

Figure 1. Seneca Cliff by Ugo Bardi.

According to Bardi, Seneca in the title refers to a statement written by Lucius Annaeus Seneca in 91 CE, “It would be of some consolation for the feebleness of ourselves and our works if all things should perish as slowly as they come into being. As it is, increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.” In fact, this shape seems to approximate the type of cycle Turchin and Nefedov observed when analyzing several agricultural civilizations that collapsed in their book Secular Cycles.

[4] An increasing amount of complexity has been added since 1981 to help compensate for rising oil and other energy prices.

The prices of commodities, including oil, tend to be extremely variable because storage is very limited, relative to the large quantities used every day. There needs to be a very close match between supply and demand, or prices will rise very high or fall very low.

Oil is exceptionally important because it is the single largest source of energy for the world economy. It is heavily used in food production and in the extraction of minerals of all types. If the price of oil increases, the price of food tends to rise, as does the price of metals of many types. Oil is also important as a transportation fuel.

In the early days, before depletion led to higher extraction costs, oil prices remained stable and low (Figure 2), as a result of utility-type pricing by the Texas Railroad Commission. Oil prices started to spike, once depletion became more of a problem.

Figure 2. Brent-equivalent oil prices in 2020 US$. Based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Economists tell us that oil and other commodity prices depend on “supply and demand.” When we look at turning points for oil prices, it becomes clear that financial manipulations play a significant role in determining oil demand. Such manipulations lead to prices that have practically nothing to do with the underlying cost of producing commodities. The huge changes in prices seem to reflect actions by central bankers to encourage or discourage lending (QE on Figure 3).

Figure 3. Monthly Brent oil prices with dates of US beginning and ending Quantitative Easing. Later Quantitative Easing did not bring oil prices back up to their prior level.

Quantitative easing (QE) makes it cheaper to borrow money. Adding QE tends to raise oil prices; deleting QE seems to reduce oil prices. These prices have little direct connection with the cost of extracting oil from the ground. Instead, prices are closely related to the amount of complexity being added to the system and whether it is having its intended impact on energy prices.

At the time of the 1973-1974 oil crisis, many people thought that the world was truly running out of oil. The petroleum industry did, indeed, succeed in extracting more. The 2005 to 2008 period was another period of concern that the world might be running out of oil. Then, in 2014, when oil prices suddenly fell, the dominant story suddenly became, “There is plenty of oil. The world’s biggest problem is climate change.”

In fact, there was no real reason to believe that the shortage situation had changed. US oil from shale had a brief run-up in production in the 2007 to 2019 period, but this production was unprofitable for producers, especially after oil prices dropped in 2014 (Figures 2 and 3). Producers of oil from shale are no longer investing very much in new production. With the sweet spots of fields depleted and this low level of investment, it will not be surprising if oil production from shale continues to fall.

Figure 4. US crude and condensate oil production for the 48 states, Alaska, and for shale basins, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.

The real story is that the supply of oil, coal and natural gas is limited by the extent to which additional complexity can be added to the economy, to keep selling prices so that they are both:

  • High enough for producers of these products, so that they can both pay adequate taxes and make adequate reinvestment.
  • Low enough for consumers, especially for the many consumers around the world with very low wages.

Many people have missed the point that, at least since 2014, financial manipulations have not kept prices for fossil fuels high enough for producers. Low prices are driving them out of business. This is the case for oil, coal and natural gas. In fact, low prices caused by giving wind and solar priority on the electric grid are driving producers of nuclear electricity out of business, as well.

Oil producers require a price of $120 a barrel or more to cover all of their costs. Without a much higher price than available today (even with oil prices over $80 per barrel), shale oil production can be expected to fall. In fact, OPEC and its affiliates won’t ramp up production by very large amounts either because they, too, need much higher prices to cover all their costs.

[5] Economists and analysts of many types put together models that give misleading results because they missed several important points.

After oil prices fell in late 2014, it became fashionable to believe that vast amounts of fossil fuels are available for extraction, and that our biggest problem in the future would be climate change. Besides low prices, one reason for this concern was the high level of fossil fuel proven reserves reported by many countries around the world.

Figure 5. Ratio of reported proven reserves at December 31, 2020, to reported production in 2020 based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Even fossil fuel companies started to invest in renewables because of the poor returns experienced from fossil fuel investments. It looked to them as if investment in renewables would be more profitable than continued investment in fossil fuel production. Of course, the profits of renewables were largely the result of government subsidies, particularly the subsidy of “going first.” Giving wind and solar first access when they happen to be available tends to lead to very low, and even negative, wholesale prices for other electricity producers. This drives these other producers of electricity out of business, even though they are really needed to correct for the intermittency of renewables.

There were many things that hardly anyone understood:

  • Energy prices in today’s financially manipulated economy bear little relationship to the true cost of production.
  • Fossil fuel producers need to be guaranteed long-term high prices, if there is to be any chance of ramping up production.
  • Intermittent renewables (including wind, solar, and hydroelectric) have little value in a modern economy unless they are backed up with a great deal of fossil fuels and nuclear electricity.
  • Our real problem with fossil fuels is a shortage problem. Price signals are very misleading.
  • The models of economists are mostly wrong. The use of carbon pricing and intermittent renewables will simply disadvantage the countries adopting them.

The reason why geologists and fossil fuel producers give misleading information about the amount of oil, coal and natural gas available to be extracted is because it is not something they can be expected to know. In a sense, the question is, “How much complexity can the economy withstand before it becomes too brittle to handle a temporary shock, such as a pandemic shutdown?” It isn’t the amount of fossil fuels in the ground that matters; it is the follow-on effects of the high level of complexity on the rest of the economy that matters.

[6] At this point, ramping up fossil fuel production would be very difficult because of the long-term low prices for fossil fuels. Unfortunately, the economy cannot get along with only today’s small quantity of renewables.

Figure 6. World energy supply by type, based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Most people don’t realize just how slowly renewables have been ramping up as a share of world energy supplies. For 2020, wind and solar together amounted to only 5% of world energy supplies and hydroelectric amounted to 7% of world energy supplies. The world economy cannot function on 12% (or perhaps 20%, if more items are included) of its current energy supply any more than a person’s body can function on 12% or 20% of its current calorie intake.

Also, the world’s reaction to the pandemic acted, in many ways, like oil rationing. Figure 6 shows that consumption was reduced for oil, coal and natural gas. An even bigger impact was on the prices of these fuels. Prices fell, even though the cost of production was not falling. (See, for example, Figure 2 for the fall in oil prices.)

These lower prices left fossil fuel providers even worse off financially than they were previously. Some providers went out of business. They certainly do not have reserve funds set aside to develop the new fields that they would need to develop, if they were to ramp up production for oil, coal and natural gas now. Because of this, it is virtually impossible to ramp up fossil fuel production now. A lead time of at least several years is needed, besides a clear way of funding the higher production.

[7] Every plant and animal and, in fact, every growing thing, needs to win the battle against intermittency.

As mentioned in the introduction, humans need to eat on a regular basis. Hunter-gatherers solved the problem of intermittency of harvests by moving from area to area, so that their own location would match the location of food availability. Early agriculture and cities became possible when the growing of grain was perfected. Grain was both storable and portable, so it could be used year around. It could also be brought to cities, allowing people to live in a different location from where the crops were stored.

We can think of any number of adaptations in the plant and animal kingdom to intermittency. Some birds migrate. Bears hibernate. Deciduous trees lose their leaves each fall and grow them back again each spring.

Our supply of any of our energy products is in some sense intermittent. Oil wells deplete, so new ones need to be drilled. Biomass burned for fuel grows for a while, before it is cut down (or falls down) and is burned for fuel. Solar energy is available only until a cloud comes in front of the sun. In winter, solar energy is mostly absent.

[8] Any modeling of the cost of energy needs to take into account the full system needed to “bridge the intermittency gap.”

As far as I can see, the only pricing system that generates enough funds is one that takes into account the full system needs, including the need to overcome intermittency and the need for transportation of the energy to the user. In fact, I would argue that even more than this needs to be included. Good roads are generally required if the system is to be kept in good repair. Good schools are needed for would-be workers in the energy system. Any costs associated with pollution should be wrapped into the required price. Thus, the true cost of energy generation really should include a fairly substantial load for taxes for all of the governmental services that the system requires. And, of course, all parts of the system should pay their workers a living wage.

This high level of pricing can only be provided by utility type pricing of fossil fuels and electricity. The use of long-term contracts to purchase fossil fuels, uranium or electricity can also build in most of these costs. The alternative approach, buying fuels using spot contracts or pricing based on time of day electricity supply, looks appealing when costs are low. But such systems don’t build in sufficient funding for replacement of depleted fields or the full cost of a 24/7/365 electrical system.

Modelers didn’t understand that the “low prices now, higher prices later” approaches that were being advocated don’t really work for the long term. As limits are approached, prices tend to spike badly. Modelers had assumed that the economic system could handle such spikes in prices, and that the spikes in prices would quickly lead to new supply or adaptation. In fact, huge spikes in prices are very disruptive to the system. New supply is what is really needed, but providers tend to be too damaged by previous long periods of artificially low prices to provide this supply. The approach looks great in academic papers, but it leads to rolling blackouts and unfilled natural gas reservoirs for winter.

[9] Major changes for the worse seem to be ahead for the world economy.

At this point, it seems as if complexity has gone too far. The pandemic moved the world economy in the direction of contraction but prices of fossil fuels tend to spike as the economy opens up.

Figure 7. Chart by BBC/Bloomberg. Source: BBC

The recent spikes in prices are highly unlikely to produce the natural gas, coal and oil that is required. They are more likely to cause recession. Fossil fuel suppliers need high prices guaranteed for the long term. Even if such guarantees could be provided, it would still take several years to ramp up production to the level needed.

The general trend of the economy is likely to be in the direction of the Seneca Cliff (Figure 1). Everything won’t collapse all at once, but big “chunks” may start breaking away.

The debt system is a very vulnerable part. Debt is, in effect, a promise of goods or services made with energy in the future. If the energy isn’t there, the promised goods and services won’t be available. Governments may try to hide this problem with new debt, but governments can’t solve the underlying problem of missing goods and services.

Pension systems of all kinds are also vulnerable. If fewer goods and services are being made in total, they will need to be divided up differently. Pensioners are likely to get a reduced share, or nothing at all.

Importers of fossil fuels seem likely to be especially affected by price spikes because exporters have the ability to cut back in the quantity available for export, if total supply is inadequate. Europe is one part of the world that is especially dependent on oil, natural gas and coal imports.

Figure 8. Total energy production and consumption of Europe, based on data of BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. The gap between consumption and production is filled by imports of oil, coal, natural gas and biofuels. Within Europe, countries also import electricity from each other.
Figure 9. Europe energy production by fuel based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

The combined production of hydroelectric, wind and solar and biofuels (in Figure 9) amounts to only 19% of Europe’s total energy consumption (shown in Figure 8). There is no possible way that Europe can get along only with renewable energy, at any foreseeable time in the future.

European economists should have told European citizens, “There is no way you can get along using renewables alone for many, many years. Treat the countries that are exporting fossil fuels to you very well. Sign long term contracts with them. If they want to use a new pipeline, raise no objection. Your bargaining power is very low.” Instead, European economists talked about saving the planet from carbon dioxide. It is an interesting idea, but the sad truth is that if Europe takes itself out of the contest for energy imports, it mostly leaves more fossil fuels for exporters to sell to others.

China stands out as well, as the world’s largest consumer of energy, and as the world’s largest importer of oil, coal and natural gas. It is already encountering electricity shortages that are leading to rolling blackouts. In fact, rolling blackouts in China started almost a year ago in late 2020. China is, of course, a major exporter of goods to the rest of the world. If China has major energy problems, the rest of the world will no longer be able to count on China’s exports. Lack of China’s exports, by itself, could be a huge problem for the rest of the world.

I could continue speculating on the changes ahead. The basic problem, as I see it, is that we have reached limits on oil, coal and natural gas extraction, pretty much simultaneously. The limits are really complexity limits. The renewables that we have today aren’t able to save us, regardless of what the models of Mark Jacobson and others might say.

In the next few years, I am afraid that we will find out how collapse actually proceeds in a very interconnected world economy.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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4,474 Responses to Spike in energy prices suggests that sharp changes are ahead

  1. Rodster says:

    Fast Eddy endorses this message !

    “When The Lights Go Out Society Grinds To A Halt”


    • Yes, this is a very good post. A couple of quotes from it.

      “The ugly bottom line is that because everything is intertwined and dependent on electricity in some way or form few things would work [if electricity goes off and stays off].


      “Those of means that may be able to leave the affected area risk looking to return after the power is restored may find many of their belongings destroyed or gone.”

  2. Pingback: Changes my family and I are considering for the increased energy prices – IrelandsEye

  3. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    US natural gas rebounds to $6.22

    winter begins in 7 weeks.

    up up and away.

  4. Fast Eddy says:

    But … but… Al Gore says previous climate changes took place over centuries… nothing like the current crisis … he even said we’d be under water by now….


    Extreme 14th Century Droughts May Provide Insight Into Our Climate Change Crisis


    Scientists are studying a major, once-in-a-century drought from Medieval Europe to better understand how extreme weather events indicate rapid climate changes.

    In the years leading up to the Little Ice Age, between 1302 and 1307, many regions on the European continent were facing exceptional heat and drought, according to historical records and data collected from tree rings and sediment cores.


    Green Groopies are a sub-group of MOREONS… closely related to CovIDIOTS.

  5. Fast Eddy says:

    The Dantean Anomaly (1309-1321): Rapid Climate Change in Late Medieval Europe with a Global Perspective

    I am in the third circle, filled with cold, / unending, heavy, and accursed rain; / its measure and its kind are never changed. / Gross hailstones, water gray with filth, and snow / come streaking down across the shadowed air; / the earth, as it receives that shower, stinks. – Inferno, Canto VI Picture: Dante Alighieri, Divina Commedia, Inferno, Canto VI: The Gluttons (Northern Italy, end of the 14th century). (Source: Oxford, Bodleian Library, MS. Holkham misc. 48, p. 9. Source: Public Domain, Wikimedia Commons).



    And Geeta? Surely there must have been a bleating troll screaming ‘stop burning coal and driving cars!!!!’

    • Student says:

      I appreciate you quote Dante Alighieri.
      In addition to being a writer, he also was a politician, but (before writing ‘Divina Commedia’) he was accused of many tremendous charges just because he was perceived as an enemy by the counterpart.
      The accuses turned to be false, but only later on and he was obliged to go into exile.
      It is not a different situation now that if one publicly expresses doubts about vaccines can b immediately ostracized.and also fired.
      It is interesting to know that During Dante’s life (1300) there was a terrible famine and a consequent plague, it was a period of scarse resources.
      I’m not sure, but Ugo Bardi may have written something about it.
      If I find it I will share it here.
      Thank you for you interesting contributes.

  6. Fast Eddy says:

    Leipzig researchers identify previously unknown drought period from historical sources.

    The transition from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age was apparently accompanied by severe droughts between 1302 and 1307 in Europe; this preceded the wet and cold phase of the 1310s and the resulting great famine of 1315–21. In the journal Climate of the Past, researchers from the Leibniz Institutes for the History and Culture of Eastern Europe (GWZO) and Tropospheric Research (TROPOS) write that the 1302–07 weather patterns display similarities to the 2018 weather anomaly, in which continental Europe experienced exceptional heat and drought.

    Both the medieval and recent weather patterns resemble the stable weather patterns that have occurred more frequently since the 1980s due to the increased warming of the Arctic. According to the Leibniz researchers’ hypothesis based on their comparison of the 1302–07 and 2018 droughts, transitional phases in the climate are always characterized by periods of low variability, in which weather patterns remain stable for a long time.

    The published study presents preliminary findings of the Freigeist Junior Research Group on the Dantean Anomaly (1309–1321) at the Leibniz Institute for the History and Culture of Eastern Europe (GWZO). Funded by the Volkswagen Stiftung, the group is investigating the rapid climate change in the early 14th century and its effects on late medieval Europe.


    Where was Al Gore when you needed him!!!

  7. Fast Eddy says:

    What is the Purpose of Injecting Children?


    • Ten reasons that the FDA’s analysis of risk/benefit of giving the vaccines to children is flawed.

      Also, the list doesn’t even include the problem mentioned in the earlier post by eugyppius. He says that immune responses are trained in childhood. Training them with part of a virus that is already extinct is not the way to do it. They need to be training their bodies with real viruses, so that they will have lifelong protection if it comes back again.

  8. Yoshua says:

    So it’s a chemical reaction that destroys the DNA.

    Anyway…it’s bad to have these radicals running amok in your cells…or in the society…or wherever (although I’m sure you will prove me wrong this time too).

  9. Mirror on the wall says:

    Spiked has given a rather sober assessment of today’s Tory budget – and that is even without serious consideration of energy issues. It is a shallow and ‘flashy’, gormless ‘budget’ that is completely inadequate to the situation.

    Britain has entirely stagnant productivity anyway, its growth has collapsed to zero like in all ‘mature’ capitalist economies. All GDP growth now depends entirely on labour expansion – fresh incoming workers, thus population growth.

    A ‘higher wage’ economy without productivity growth just means higher prices, inflation. It is completely meaningless slogan-posturing by the Tories – playing the British electorate for fools.

    As one says, that is even without serious consideration of escalating energy issues.

    British ‘democracy’ has not even reached the ‘lofty heights’ of a basically honest discussion – so much for that. It is like the Tories and the rest of the establishment are happy enough to realise all of the worst caricatures of ‘democracy’, so long as they keep power – a state power strategy.


    > Rishi Sunak’s dangerous complacency

    How can the chancellor appear so oblivious to Britain’s severe economic problems?

    There is a fine line between optimism and delusion. UK chancellor Rishi Sunak is firmly in the delusion camp.

    Delivering today’s budget – a budget ‘fit for our new age of optimism’ – Sunak was almost distastefully upbeat, given some of the economic clouds descending on the country. Though the chancellor wanted to look to the post-Covid economy, the UK is still bearing the scars of the past two years of state-enforced shutdown.

    As winter looms, households are being squeezed by soaring energy bills and rising inflation. Businesses are struggling with labour shortages and supply-chain chaos. The multiple crises engulfing the economy got a brief mention by the chancellor, but these were quickly dismissed as global problems, which are apparently in no government’s gift to fix.

    The chancellor likes to think these crises are growing pains en route to a ‘high-skill, high-wage economy’ that is just around the corner. But the Office for Budget Responsibility’s growth projections, also released today, fall well short of this boosterism. After a sharp ‘bounce-back’ from the lockdown, UK GDP is expected to grow by just 1.3 per cent in 2023 and 1.6 per cent in 2024. These are hardly sunlit uplands to look forward to.

    While it might not be a high-growth or high-wage economy, it will certainly be a high-cost economy. The Bank of England’s headline inflation figure of four per cent does not do justice to some of the staggering price rices faced by many key sectors. For instance, the prices of vital materials in the construction sector – such as timber, steel and concrete – rose between 60 and 80 per cent in the first seven months of the year.

    This will surely put a spanner in the works of the chancellor’s otherwise welcome plans for increased infrastructure investment. And it won’t be long before businesses of all types start to pass the rising costs of inputs on to consumers.

    As one former special adviser quipped before the budget, while the chancellor expects the economy to rebalance itself in a ‘nice’ way after Covid, with higher wages and higher productivity, a market that’s been this severely disrupted also has ‘nasty ways’ to reach a new equilibrium – through ‘higher prices, lower output, more imports and lost UK production capacity’. Even the rising wages that the chancellor trumpeted may be deceptive. Unless they can keep up with inflation, they are meaningless.

    Sunak insisted his ‘plan’ for the economy is working. But there was no concrete plan in this budget to make the ‘high wage’ economy a reality. Much like his boss, Boris Johnson, Sunak seems to think a whole new set of economic conditions can be summoned into existence through talk alone….

  10. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    A 33-year-old millionaire hotel tycoon mysteriously collapsed and died after partying in a Mayfair nightclub, it was reported.

    Vivek Chadha, who has links to the Conservative Party, was found dead in London in the early hours of Sunday.

    He was a Tory party donor and regularly attended events alongside the likes of former prime ministers, David Cameron and Theresa May.

    It comes only weeks after the 33-year-old married model Stuttee Chadha, 29, in a lavish wedding at the JW Marriott Grosvenor House hotel on London’s Park Lane.

    A post-mortem is expected to be carried out to confirm the cause of Mr Chadha’s death which is unknown at this stage. Friends believe he may have suffered an unexpected heart attack, but he was not known to have any underlying health conditions.

    Wonder if it was The Jab that attack his ❤️ heart?

    Either way suppose it wasn’t meant to be…recent widow must !anage to carry on with a load of🤑

  11. Yoshua says:

    Do you mean that it’s not radiation, but electrons from the Hydroxyl Radicals that are destroying the DNA?

    That’s what oxidation is?

    You know, we haven’t studied this shit, we are just trying hang on to the changing times. It would be helpful if you explained what you mean…instead of just throwing Greek words.

    • drb says:

      There are many reactions involved, but basically, these free radicals stick to an organic molecule that your body needs, and ruin it. The body then needs to repair it (most of the time, replace it). The radicals have always some oxygen, so they tend (chemically speaking) to latch onto sites where electrons are available. In short, it is all chemistry.

  12. drb says:

    What the paper says is that, because ionizing radiation also damages DNA through hydroxyl molecules (which mostly radiation break off of water), the study also shines light on what the same radiation does to DNA. Hydroxyl-based damage is not uncommon in organic chemistry. IIRC, also favism (poisoning due to ingestion of fava beans, if you do not have a certain enzyme) creates a massive (sometimes fatal) oxidation event due to freeing the same molecules.

  13. Hubbs says:

    And it will be very interesting to read the fine print on the rental contracts in the event the EV runs out of electricity. Driver negligence or false advertising on availability of charging units, and missed flights due to delays with charging outside the airport? Will Hertz hire out tow truck contractors/ (expensive) or keep those services in house? How many charging units will be built around the airports? Obviously, renters won’t return their cars fully charged as it already costs an arm and a leg if the Hertz refills the gas tank in the traditonal ICE car.

    • jodytishmack says:

      Our current gasoline powered vehicles have a light that warns us when fuel is getting low and we need to refill. I imagine it will be similar with EVs. Most people who rent them will be given a map of recharging stations. Most rental vehicles are for local travel. I don’t see this limitation as much of an issue. We plan to buy one next year because our solar panels now provide more energy than our house uses. It will be for local travel.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Renting a Tesla … hahahahahahaha… possibly the stewpidest business idea in the history of the world…. did I mention my friend with the Tesla had to stop to charge at less than 300km….

      I have a friend with a BMW i-pc of shit. He was explaining to me recently how it’s ok to break an hour drive in half and enjoy a relaxing overnight in the middle of nowhere to charge (and pay for the hotel and restaurant food)…

      It’s amazing the ridiculous excuses a MOREON/Green Groopie can come up with to justify wasting 100k+ on a pc of shit car.

      hahahahahahahahhahaha… alas… the end approaches… the green dream will die

      After American Moon this is the best documentary in the history of the world


  14. Yoshua says:

    As far as I can understand Hydroxyl Radicals cause damage to DNA through ionising radiation.

    There’s some advanced shit going here with this virus.


  15. Hubbs says:

    As an unintended consequence of restricted air travel, instead of relying on so called energy credits, skepticism will spread when it comes to the realization that if you plan any long term trips by car, you will not be able to rely on charging stations, or for that matter availability of gas, the electricity to run the pumps, or functioning ATMs to even finance purchases if gas is available. Kind of like having to rely on gold and silver rather than fiat.

    People will realize they will have to plan on having gas availability actually stored in their cars for any distance travel, like aircraft have extended long range fuel tanks. Otherwise you can not make the trip. I know I sound like a kooky alarmist, but I could almost see that Hertz would have to have on standby a “rescue” car and tow truck to retrieve those people who rented their airport based EV fleet and ran out of battery juice. I can’t believe people would be dumb enough to venture very far from the rental place in an EV anyway.

    • Mainstream EVs are evidently moving into the >80kWh batt capacity, also hw speeds are restricted (in the US), so you are good for ~250km, conservatively speaking already (~SUV form factor, net batt capacity, .. ). So, in reality ~350km range is realistic in sedan form factor and if you double check all the conditions. Hertz and similar won’t build up their fleet on bottom feeder range of models (say <40-60kWh sized) rather opt for serious batt size with long haul depreciation.

      You are correct on the charging network though, the super duper fast chargers (never to be majority) could work (as they do now) in hydro or NPP type of grid / outlier – pilot countries, not much in patchy unreliable grid regions..

      But most likely we will be having very different set of problems shortly..

    • My father’s father, when they family lived in Madagascar years ago, would have places set up along the route where he could pick up needed fuel for his motorcycle. There were no regular gasoline stations. He would take the family’s children back and forth to the boarding school that they lived at during the school year on his motorcycle. I believe that they had to ford a river, at least at some times of the year.

      • gpdawson2016 says:

        “… have places set up along the route where he could pick up needed fuel…”- so it was once for money- a chain of trust for travelers. Remember travelers cheques?

  16. CTG says:

    WTI Holds Losses After Big Crude Build, Cushing Stocks Plunge


    One commenter :

    You don’t need to buy oil and gas. Asian countries are snapped up any available oil and gas now. These are not stupid people to pay more than they need too. They know that in the last several years the oil & gas capex is way below what they need to be to sustain the energy needs. Last year just take a cake on capex demolition. Most of oil & gas companies are not drilling new wells this year, they are just completing all the DUCs prior covid. Now these DUCs are running out and the supply of oil will collapse next year. Even if the oil & gas companies are starting to drill (which they won’t since shareholders will kill the managements) will take a lot of capitals which they can not get from woke ESG banks refuse to loan out. It will take 6-12 months to start the new oil flow. So don’t look at American shale oil to fill the gap. Go beg the Russian and Saudis.

    Make sense?

  17. Yoshua says:

    ” The hydroxyl radical has a very short in vivo half-life of approximately 10−9 seconds and a high reactivity.[6] This makes it a very dangerous compound to the organism.”

    The radioactivity occurs when it falls apart?

    The strange thing about using a virus to create hydroxyl radicals is that they kill virus.

  18. CTG says:

    FE is going to have a field day in a couple of hours time.


    Exceeds 5000 cases with 10 deaths. I think it is better to cover up…. the horses have left the barn

    • MonkeyBusiness says:

      The last 3 days, they have not given a detailed breakdown of the fatalities like how many had received vaccination and how many had not. Something is amiss.

  19. Malcopian says:

    And the Lord said, “Let there be light!” And lo, you could see for frickin’ MILES!

    And Bill Gates said, “Let there be Event 201 and Crimson Contagion!” And lo, a great pandemic smote the Earth.

    In the 2019 BBC TV fictional drama series “Years and Years”, set in a dystopian near future, a character says, “Did you know there is no such thing as germs? Apparently it’s just a myth!” This was the series highlighting the current trend for C theories. And of course, such a mistaken view ha been uttered on this site, to Gail’s chagrin and disdain.

    I agree with Gail. My sister, who is a nursing assistant, told me some years ago of how she had learnt as part of her training that bacteria could be treated with drugs to cure illness, but viruses could not. So if they cannot, why the vaccinations? Somebody bring me up to speed, please.

    • don’t hold me to account on precise details, can’t have eddy jumping up and down on his barstool in case he does himself a mischief.

      but (as I understand it)

      bodily infection can be treated with drugs to kill off harmful bacteria that cause those infections.. Antibiotics and so on.

      Vaccination against virus infections work by making the body ‘pre-aware’ of a particular virus and so able to resist it. This is why antibiotics dont work against flu.

      Neither form of medication is 100% effective.

      and both can carry adverse side effects (up to and including death)

      They just improve chances of survival.


      And I was under the impression that Gail had asked for this subject to be dropped—it has, after all, tiresomely dominated the conversation for August, September and October. Maybe even July—can’t be bothered to check

      • Malcopian says:

        Thank you, Munchkal. I’m sure Gail is not against having a proper treatment of the subject. It’s just certain C-theories that she doesn’t like.

        • well

          at least conspiracy theories are not really my thing

          oops, i forgot

          All the conspiracies have been proven correct.

          It’s everybody else who’s crazy for refusing to adhere to them

          silly me.

          ‘Alleged planes’ anyone? If I’d known they were just holograms, it would have saved years of arguing. Since about 2015 anyway.

          • Malcopian says:

            Check the evidence. It’s there on the videos. And buildings do not collapse into their own footprint unless they have been purposely demolished. But there is none so blind as he who will not see. Anyway, the US got its war against naughty Iraq and its wicked (never found!) WMD. Mission accomplished!

            Wake up, Munchkin! The Yellow Brick Road doesn’t exist.

          • Malcopian says:

            ‘Alleged planes’ anyone? If I’d known they were just holograms

            Not JUST holograms, Normal, but most likely missiles cloaked by holograms. Seriously. Check out invisibility shields and cloaks for start. It’s not 1945, any more, you know.

            • for the sake of humankind in general i hope—desperately hope–that your humour is of the blackest, most English, variety. (We do do that rather well).
              Irony here is a supplement to mothers milk.

              In the words of Mc Enroe—you cannot be serious.

              Sometimes so difficult to tell on here, so many actual moonloons.

              I ache with laughing so much I’m having trouble separating out the subtle pain of having my leg pulled.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Don’t laugh too hard norm… that can be fatal for someone of your advanced age

            • not so far eddy

              if i do die laughing, i have left enough detailed information to enable my heirs to sue you as the person responsible

            • D. Stevens says:

              Larry Silverstein replaced the security and maintenance staff in the months leading up to the event which would’ve been a good opportunity for demolition charges to be install in case they needed to ‘pull-it’ someday but that’s too simple so lets muddy the waters with holograms, missiles, and mininukes so the conspiracy folks can argue amongst themselves endlessly while looking idiotic to the average person. OK, back to energy and resource depletion.

            • Malcopian says:

              “for the sake of humankind in general i hope—desperately hope–that your humour is of the blackest, most English, variety.”

              Norman, I ache with despair at your inability to see that humanity can at times act in the most cruel ways. “The end justifies the means”. You do not have to a Yugoslav or a member of the AH party to commit these acts.

              I put those videos up to show you and all that serious experts have used their scientific knowledge to expose what went on, on that terrible day. I can only assume that the fact that you cannot see any of it is as a result of your deep indoctrination. I own up to the blackest of black humour at times, and the most inventive of sarcasm. But NOT in these cases. The top levels of society will do absolutely what it takes to make sure that they have plenty of everything, including oil, food, the lot.

              If you cannot see anything of what I have shown you, then I put it down to naivety, but also down to the naivety of thorough decency. Alternatively, I have to consider that you might even be a paid sh. ill. It could just be old age. Here I do not mean that as an insult. My father was a lorry driver. I was surprised at how much of modern life he was interested in, in his sixties. Then it seemed, from about aged 68, then he knew what he knew and did not want to know about the internet or computers or whatever.

              Norman, what do you think Dr. Judy Wood and Heinz Pommer are doing, when they show you the anomalies of 9/11? WHY do you think they are doing it? Those steel buildings disintegrate into dust, but YOU CAN’T SEE IT? Why not?

              Also, you are British, Norman. How do you think the British gained a world empire? By going round the world being jolly decent chaps? Do you believe that evil only happened in history and that ALL Anglo-Saxons are now thoroughly decent? Perhaps you do, but try asking the Iraqis and Afghans and Irish and Kenyans what they think about that, and see what answers you get. I suspect, however, that you really ARE so unthinking.

              I do not know where D Stevens is coming from. Does he believe there was a plot around 9/11, or does he not? I see reasons to suspect thermite, missiles AND a mini-nuke. Because, yes, the criminals who did that would have planned multiple facets to keep us confused and guessing. Or is that what Mr. Stevens means? Or is he a SH / LL?

            • from your comprehensive response, i can only assume that you think this Judy Wood person, and her ‘alleged planes’ are in some weird way, correct. I still cherish the hope that you are trying to wind me up.

              thank you for confirming everything that i really really didn’t want to know. (about the strangeness of human mind).

              I thought the meanderings of the moonloons took things to the depths of incomprehension, but ‘alleged planes’ on the WTC beats that.

              Not even eddy went as far as alleged planes. You missed a trick there eddy. Put that on the hoax list for 2022.

              So we have missiles disguised as planes, hitting the twin towers, plus one that hit the pentagon, and one that crashed in a field.


              If I may ask a silly question:

              Four conventional aircraft took off that morning, full of passengers. (well alleged passengers anyway, or walking holograms—or something.)
              That is fully documented. All their names are on passenger lists.

              but 4 missiles (well 3 anyway) hit their targets.

              Would you care to explain where those 4 aircraft went?

              if 4 missiles were used—that leaves 4 airliners that took off—but were never seen again

              4+4 used to equal 8.

              So we have 4 missing aircraft +passengers. Unless you insist that the planes that took off were missiles in disguise? Carrying crash dummies?


              Just what this has got to do with the British Empire escapes me. Maybe your leapfrogging mind has the answer, i certainly don’t.

            • Norman is a nice guy. Not everyone needs to see what looks like conspiracies to some people.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I can see that the moment of truth is approaching … the point where you realize what you are dealing with … when one comes to that realization then one no longer engages… one heaps scorn and ridicule on the MOREON…

              It’s either completely ignore them… and hope that they go away … but they usually don’t … and this is a superb opportunity to hones one mockery skills

            • Malcopian says:

              Norman, I’ve given up in despair. I’ve given you links galore to explain only some of the many aspects of that day that were deliberately inserted to confuse and bamboozle the public. Clearly you don’t look at them.

              Planes – one of them crashed – or was shot down. The people told to look at the crash site were perplexed. There was nothing there. No plane, no bodies. I could go on and on, but you want me to, so that you can ignore the links I give. I’ve had enough of your shallow games.

              Planes can also be remote-controlled if necessary, in case the pilots become incapacitated. I could waste my time giving you links to the documents and books that discuss these things, but I won’t, because you don’t look, or if you look, you don’t see – or you don’t want to see. Yes, these acts disgust me, and their motivations. I’m just glad I live in the West and am not on the receiving end of what we perpetrate elsewhere.

              British Empire? It wasn’t all bad, but atrocities were committed by those in power. Spear-wielding Zulus were ruthlessly machine-gunned, et cetera, et cetera. Kenyans had the “castration pliers” applied to them. Try looking at any book by Caroline Elkins on Amazon. And 9//11, wars in the Middle East? They also involved atrocities too, by those in power. Did you honestly believe the propaganda about “the war on terror” ? So, Norman: British Empire – atrocities. 9/11 – atrocities. War on terror – atrocities. Get it? Got it? Good. Now go and watch some “Carry on” films and don’t trivialise deeply serious subjects.

              But enough already. I’ve just learned that FE’s estimate of your IQ is correct. Either that or you’re a deliberate time-waster.

            • Bei Dawei says:

              I’m just wondering how these holograms are supposed to work. (Some Flat Earthers think the moon is one.)

            • Malcopian says:

              BD wrote:

              “I’m just wondering how these holograms are supposed to work. (Some Flat Earthers think the moon is one.)”

              I don’t know, but they exist. Didn’t you see the Prince Charles one, on one the videos I linked to? Also they had Jacko performing on stage – but AFTER he was dead!

              I imagine they are related to invisibility shields. Crop circles appeared in the fields of Wiltshire in 1989. Some saw beams fired from the sky creating them. One man in a glider almost flew into something reflective in the sky in Wiltshire, to his astonishment. He surmised it was using an invisibility shield. In fact, there is a military base in Wiltshire, and it was testing its infra-red lasers from drones in the sky.

              Stories were put about blaming ETs for the crop circles, and two old codgers appeared in newspapers around the world – all on the very same day, mark you (some manipulation behind the scenes going on, clearly), claiming that they made all the crop circles at night! Yeah, right. 🙁

              It was the old ploy of putting up two opposing explanations – neither of them true – and watching the public argue about them, while hiding the true story.

  20. Yoshua says:

    Mr Pool could mean this weekend. He has made posts about Halloween.

    The last part of the message decoded by Dr Horace Drew

    Brandt22 1:33 – start – cs002-kbjn-mis-osi

    Chief of Staff 002 —Tonapah Test Range Airport (code KBJN) — Military Intelligence Service — Office of Special Investigations

    E.T. contact at Tonapah?

  21. Mirror on the wall says:

    The clock is ticking on Macron’s threat to cut French energy supplies to Britain and Jersey in retaliation over fishing permits. There is also talk of France slowing down trade flows out of Britain at the ports, and of blockading British fishermen from docking.

    Macron is talking the talk – it remains to be seen whether he will walk the walk.


    > Brexit: France readying sanctions if UK withholds fishing licences

    PARIS (Reuters) -French fishermen lack half the licences they need to fish in British waters and which Paris says are owed them after Brexit, France’s government said Wednesday, adding it was working on possible sanctions that could affect power supplies to the UK.

    Government spokesman Gabriel Attal said France was drawing up a list of sanctions that it could make public as early as Thursday. Some of them would come into effect early next week unless enough progress had been made, he added.

    “Our patience is reaching its limits,” added Attal, who highlighted that France’s supply of electricity to Britain could be one of the measures.

    • Cutting off Britain’s electricity imports from France looks like something that could happen quite quickly and simply. It would certainly help the EU.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        It would be an ironic move, on the eve of Boris’ Cop26 ‘climate’ conference. Britain is already in an energy crisis, with gas shortages, utility bills way up, petrol at record prices. Hyperthermia could be a big issue this winter – if hundreds of thousands of elderly die for want of heat. ‘Cop’ is informal in Britain for negligence, ‘cop out’.

        • “Cop out” is used in the same way in the US.

          • Mirror on the wall says:

            Apparently from ‘cup’.

            > Cop-out has come to mean an evasion, an escape from facing up to something, but like many slang words it has an untidy history. It first appeared some 500 years ago in the Scots phrase “play cop out” where cop was equivalent to cup, meaning “playing empty the cup” or, frankly, boozing.

        • Malcopian says:

          “Hyperthermia is a type of treatment in which body tissue is heated to as high as 113 °F to help damage and kill cancer cells with little or no harm to normal tissue. Hyperthermia to treat cancer is also called thermal therapy, thermal ablation, or thermotherapy.”

          Perhaps the Celt means hypothermia?

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      The clock is also ticking on the NI protocol. Mr. Frost seems to still be adamant that ECJ oversight of the single market must end in NI. He has threatened to invoke article 16 if the EU does not comply. EU seems to have already covered itself legally by reducing obstacles to east-west trade, and it would likely take its own measures in retaliation. A full blown trade war is a possibility. Late December seems to be the deadline.

      It may turn into a ‘game of chicken’ – in which the smaller vehicle is generally advised to get out of the way. Frost talks the talk – but will he walk the walk?


      > Brexit: December deadline for EU as Lord Frost says current proposals to reform Northern Ireland Protocol ‘don’t go far enough’

      But the role of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in resolving disputes between the UK and the EU remains a key sticking point.

      A UK government source said the arrangement “must end”, while the European Commission has insisted it will not budge on the issue.

      Lord Frost made clear that the role of the ECJ is a red line for the UK, telling MPs that the government wants to make sure that the future relationship between the two sides is “not ultimately policed by EU institutions including the courts of justice”.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      The fishing dispute is due to two ‘leaders’ playing with nationalist populism to get votes. The Tories have draped themselves in nationalism since the collapse of the British ‘far right’ over the past decade, and particularly since Brexit, and Macron faces ‘far right’ challenges for the presidency.

      The state parties want to play their electorates qua herds, and it seems to be what a lot of the demos wants too – sort of a feeling of group and personal ‘affirmation’, which is likely missing some of the more fundamental issues.

      It is liable to do more harm than good, perhaps particularly in NI, but the Tories are more interested in reinforcing their own electorate. Flag-waving gets votes, especially when the establishment parties can confidently ‘own’ the flag.

      This could even be interpreted as Macron and the Tories virtually ‘cooperating’ in a silly dispute for mutual electoral benefit.


      > Brexit: France prepares sanctions which could affect UK power supplies over fishing dispute

      What’s more, it could also involve electricity supplies being cut to the Channel Islands, and a go-slow by French customs. These are not trivial inconveniences, but big, meaty threats.

      A couple of days ago, Lord Frost, the Brexit minister, seemed calmly accepting of the row, saying that the UK was following Brexit rules to the letter, and awarding licences to all the boats who supplied the right evidence. It was, he seemed to suggest, simply a teething problem of Brexit.

      The French, by contrast, say the process is too slow and laborious, and that their fishing community is suffering because of Britain’s intransigence. Talks to sort this out have been going on for a while, with the European Commission acting as the middle-man. More licences have slowly been handed out. But the French insist that, in the absence of significant progress by early next week, the reprisals will begin.

      Emmanuel Macron has an election next year and knows that sticking up for fishermen plays well with voters in northern France. It also supports his plan to present himself as Europe’s most decisive leader, the man to fill the de-facto leadership role that will be vacated by Angela Merkel.

      Boris Johnson, always casting his own eye on public opinion, is well aware that fishing rights became a totemic topic among many Brexit voters. And bearing in mind his other battle with Europe, over the Northern Ireland Protocol, he won’t want to be seen to back down too readily.

  22. Student says:

    Boxing champion Floyd Mayweather has just published a video in support of Brooklyn Nets player Kyrie Irving, who has been pushed away from his team because of his position about Covid vaccination.
    My impression about what is happening with black people in US about Covid vaccines is that those who have already been slaves in the past are realizing quicker about a new project of slavery.
    Maybe it can be useful for you to know that it is happening the same in Italy with people of South Italy who have a lower rate of vaccination and are also more skeptic about experimental vaccines, in comparison with people of the industrialized North.
    People of the South have been exploited and badly treated for many years by those who conquered them, the Savoia kingdom of the North, in 1861.
    The inferiority treatment people of the South suffered is something that have been told from grandparents to grandchildren, because they lived that poor condition in person.

    please see https://t.me/lancoraitalia/3614

    • drb says:

      Yes, also everywhere there is much more resistance among nurses than among doctors. Previous slavery experience helps, but regular class warfare experience, plus first hand knowledge of the medical system, will also do. And, nowhere is the resistance as strong as here in Russia, in terms of percentages, social strata involved, networking, reciprocal help, and variety of methods used. The people truly are united. It’s an amazing sight.

      • Student says:

        Thanks drb for your feedback. About this I heard an interesting point made my Dimitry Orlov.
        He said that the incredible difference between Europeans and Russians is that when the authority says things to do, Europeans just obey, Russians say yes, but, in private, they may do things differently.
        So I think that also in this case (in addition to other reasons), personal and social past experience helped to shape people’s behavior.
        Taking another example, I think that in US, people of some States may have a different belief about freedoom in comparison, perhaps, with people of New York.

        • Student says:

          not ‘my’, but ‘by’

        • NomadicBeer says:

          Student, not just in Russia.
          Eastern Europe has the same distrustful approach to authority. The reason is that for most people during most of the history obeying the laws has been a losing proposition. The lawmakers have been either foreign powers, foreing influences or simply local barrons bent on enriching themselves and running away to the west.

          You will see this mentioned as corruption but it’s simply a survival strategy.

          Living under an evil system has the effect of turning positives into negatives and the other way around. Think about it – wouldn’t you have wanted Germans to be more corrupt and incompetent during the Nazi regime?

        • Xabier says:

          ‘I hear, but do not obey’ was an old Spanish saying – a similar strategy for avoiding accusations of treason or disloyalty, while not having any intention of putting a law or order into effect.

          Useful when kings could cut you into pieces or burn you….

    • It is the industrialization that we cannot keep up. We also cannot keep up the densely populated urban areas, as there is less surplus energy and food. It would make sense that something comes along to reduce the population in these areas.

      • hillcountry says:

        Likely cholera and dysentery for starters as the perfect storm of no parts for sewage pumps, increasing back-up and intrusion events, and older experts retiring all converge. Go long chlorine, might have to treat that bathtub of water, assuming those pumps are still working. Showers will probably be a thing of the past in cities once people begin to distrust their water-supply, as well as the authorities who will lie to them on television. People won’t get it till they get it though. I tried selling counter-top water-distillers door-to-door during a water-emergency in a small town once. You’d think that was the perfect set-up, but it was probably worth the lessons learned, that weekend of rejection.

        • You don’t really want distilled water either, because that water has too few minerals in it. Perhaps it is OK for a short time, but not for very long. Israel has had trouble using water from desalination plants without added minerals.

          • hillcountry says:

            I guess it depends on what you mean by “OK”

            I had a German woman (thick accent) lambaste me at a Home Improvement show where I had the whole line of distillers on display. Hers was the “dead-water” argument, mine was showing the “mineral residues” at the bottoms of some of my tabletop models. “Yellow” for Detroit water one week, “Greyish Brown” for the next. Out in the country on private wells often shows the same thing, (and worse); particularly in the hill-country of Texas, with multiple aquifer layers where you have no idea what’s flowing-through from one week to the next. A lot of illegal “barrel-dumping” goes on out in the country in pits dug on those vast private ranches.

            Having read Viktor Schauberger earlier, I knew where she was coming from about “living water”, but simply asked her to point out any streams in our area from which she’d be willing to drink. On the mineral issue; in the best case scenario, a good artesian source, we only get about 5% of our mineral requirements from our daily water intake. Once the distilled-water argument gets that far, then one usually contends with the “too pure” and “mineral leaching” and “reverse-osmosis” fallback positions.

            Whatever the case, I’m happy with drinking distilled since 1985 or so. Had a Calcium Scoring test a few months ago with my number at 3. My sister who delivered CAC test-results at a major hospital for years, said she’d never even seen as low as a 3 but had seen many in the 100’s and a few as high as 900-1,400. Her vegan cardiology guru claims to be a 1. So it seems to me that Norman Walker’s old book about the benefits of distilled water pretty much nailed it for those of us with no better options – “Water Can Undermine Your Health”.

  23. jodytishmack says:

    Investors on board as U.S. oil majors dismiss wind and solar projects

    HOUSTON/BOSTON, Oct 27 (Reuters) – Top U.S. oil firms are doubling down on drilling, deepening a divide with European rivals on the outlook for renewables, and winning support from big investors who do not expect the stateside companies to invest in wind and solar.

    Among a dozen U.S. fund managers contacted by Reuters from companies overseeing about $7 trillion in assets, most said they prefer oil firms to generate returns from businesses they know best and give shareholders cash to make their own renewable bets.

    With oil and gas prices jumping this year, the U.S. oil majors mostly have delivered higher returns and achieved better earnings multiples and dividend yields than rivals, cementing shareholder enthusiasm.

    These are interesting times. Are oil producing countries holding back on production in order to drive up prices and attract investors? Or are oil producing countries unable to produce more and prices will stay high? Historically, when oil prices go up (especially rapidly) consumers began buying more fuel efficient vehicles and driving less. If EV can be rolled out fast enough, consumers may also switch to EV. How will high prices be impacted by demand destruction?

    • Suddenly the preferences of U. S. fund managers change, when they see how poorly wind and solar perform, in practice, in Europe, and rallying oil and gas prices in the US.

      • jodytishmack says:

        As you’ve pointed out many times Gail, solar and wind are intermittent, but that does not mean they perform poorly, it simply means they have limitations. We can overcome this limitation with better storage technology and more efficient use of energy. Storage options continue to develop. https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/storage/watch-ess-boss-discusses-flow-batteries-listing-on-nyse-and-u-s-infrastructure-bills/ We need to reduce energy consumption and waste. Higher prices will perhaps force this awareness upon us.

        • Hubbs says:

          I think solar and wind penetration into the overall energy scheme will be “perfected” through fine tunning their use only as intermittent backstops to the base FF’s, the opposite of prevailing situation today whereby solar and wind are undercutting the profit margins of the oil and NG producers. In other words, oil producers will continue to lose profit margins and revenues at the expense of solar and wind.

          But once Wall Street investments and the government tax breaks for renewables decline, we will descend into “energy Communism” where all energy forms, FF and “renewables,” will be hit with increased costs. As a reminder, under economic socialism and political communism, everyone, except those few exceptions at the top, becomes equally poor.

          • PxD says:

            Why would a stable on-demand energy source need to be backstopped by an intermittent one? What you’re proposing isn’t feasible.

            • jodytishmack says:

              If fossil fuels were renewable and if we could capture their emissions, perhaps you might be right. But neither is currently true. If humans want to maintain a bridge between our current economic system and a future system, a transition will be needed. We need an energy system that is fueled by renewable sources of fuel to backstop to our current economy. It will require fossil energy to manufacture its components, so I envision there will be a system that uses both for a time, as long as climate change can be kept less than disastrous levels. If we pass tipping points we won’t know until it’s too late.

            • Lidia17 says:

              To the degree that it happens, I think it’s going to be the vacuum-like “pull” of the MPP, ensuring that no opportunity for dead-end wastage goes unexploited.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          hahahahahahahaha… never going to happen

    • I found another reason why oil majors are leaving wind and solar.

      GE Renewable Energy continues to make losses in Q3 2021
      Turbine manufacturer’s losses widen in third quarter of 2021, but narrow in first nine months of the year

      Also, some allegations have been made that solar panels are made via forced labor by Uyghurs in China in the remote northwestern area of China. This is not a sustainable situation, if it is true, either. Such an area requires a large amount of energy for transport out of the area.

      • jodytishmack says:

        “The turbine manufacturer reported a loss of $151 million in Q3 for the renewable energy business, compared to a $51 million loss in the same quarter one year earlier.

        The company attributed the loss to lower US repowering volumes and supply chain pressures for onshore wind, negative margins for offshore wind as the business works through legacy projects, and lower volumes for grid projects.

        The US giant’s renewables division also reported losses in the first two quarters of 2021. However, its losses in Q1 and Q2 marked improvements from the same period one year ago.”

        GE Renewable Energy division lost $151 million in Q3 but GE itself posted revenues of $18.43 billion for the quarter ended September 2021, The company clearly has revenue to sustain this level of losses if they believe future profits from wind will improve. Supply chain issues may or may not last. New production in the US may be improving. https://www.virginiamercury.com/2021/10/25/siemens-gamesa-chooses-virginia-for-offshore-wind-turbine-blade-factory/

        • Thanks for the additional information. Clearly not a moneymaker, last year or this. We know that supply issues are likely to stick around.

          • jodytishmack says:

            I think we are entering the phase of collapse/transition in which control of resources becomes very important. Nations will form partnerships as long as we can trust each other. Anyone who is self-reliant will be in a better position than people who depend on others to supply what we need. I assume that COP26 may be more about deciding who we can trust and who we can’t, than about empty promises about fixing climate change.

    • PxD says:

      OPEC is holding oil production off the market, artificially. Their plan is to add back 400,000 barrels per day of production every month for the next year or so. In theory, this should balance supply and demand smoothly by Q2 of 2022 and temper oil prices around $70-$80. This plan might look good in a spreadsheet, but the reality is that recently demand has jumped suddenly and there is the possibility of a cold winter ahead (= more demand for heating), while oil inventories are still drawing down rapidly. This is causing the price spikes.

      European natural gas prices around $32 or $34 per mmBtu are the equivalent of paying $200 per barrel of oil. That’s extremely expensive economy-crushing energy. Interesting to me that they’re still humming and hawing over whether or not to approve Nord Stream 2, while saying they’re going to double down on solar+wind. They need a serious reality check soon, otherwise the (economic) beatings will continue.

  24. Yoshua says:

    A message from Mr Pool

    At the 11th hour the next week the old world will gone and a new cycle will begin?


    • When I look up Week 44 2021, I find that it includes Friday, October 29 and Sunday, October 31. The 11th hour perhaps is Sunday. Will our bank accounts disappear over the weekend? There has been concern about this possibly happening in the near term, over a week-end.

      • As I think about the situation, I think that it is extremely unlikely that our bank accounts will disappear over the weekend, in the near term. What is more likely is a Lehman type event that greatly disrupts international trade, or some big disruption in the international financial system.

  25. jodytishmack says:

    Oil Prices Could Explode As U.S.’ Largest Storage Hub Nears Empty

    “People all of a sudden woke up to the reality that they are running out of everything: they are ran out of investments, they ran out of stocks and they ran out of … creativity in trying to be attending to real solution that address real issues,” Prince Abdulaziz told the CERA Week India Energy Forum.

    In any case, in the clearest example yet of market tightness, Cushing crude storage fell to 31.2 mb last week as noted in the chart above. And because operational tank bottoms are likely 20-25% of capacity- or about 20 mb – JPM predicts that “we could be just weeks away from Cushing being effectively out of crude” and adds that “if nothing were to change in the Cushing balance over the next two months, we might expect front WTI spreads to spike to record highs—a “super backwardation” scenario.”

    If JPM’s prediction is correct – and recall just yesterday we published a similar take from Morgan Stanley which now expects a similar “peak supply” scenario playing out, if over the longer term prompting the bank to hike its Q1 2022 price target to $95 from $77.5/bbl – it would have a catastrophic (read higher) impact on the price of oil.

    • Maybe the price will explode, but recession will follow bringing the price back down.

      • Dennis L. says:

        Nominal or real?

        What would be a good definition of real?

        How many pounds of magnesium for example can a barrel of oil purchase today?

        As per usual, I don’t know the answers to the above questions, no sarcasm.

        Dennis L.

  26. Yoshua says:

    Dr. Horace R Drew took the Pfizer jab as a “medical experiment”. He hasn’t slept for 4 weeks due to pain from inflammation in his heart, hands and feet.

    I’m not promoting the Vaxx …or to get infected.

    A photo of his hand. Radioactive poisoning?


  27. Yoshua says:

    The spike protein creates a radioactive bomb inside the cell.

    The spike activates several cell receptors that let in a cocktail of molecules into the cell, which causes radioactivity, which in turn fries the DNA.
    This activities the cytokine storm which makes it just worse.


    • hillcountry says:

      Interesting connections being made there. Thanks for the link. Some friends in the medical world follow just that sort of thing. Will relay it to them. A PubMed search “Glutathione and Fenton Reaction” yields 396 papers, so there’s a lot going on there. That one chart in the thread showing Funeral Home Searches up 52% year-on-year is a creative way to peel the onion. Jumping over to that feed (DarshanDorsey) is pretty good stuff too.

    • A quote from the Twitter:

      “In undergraduate Biological Chemistry II we are taught that NOS + FE2 results in THE HYDROXYL RADICAL.”

      This would explain why people with high iron levels would especially likely to be affected, I would expect.

    • drb says:

      It seems it creates oxidative damage though, not radio-activity (according to the tweet).

      • Perhaps this is why drugs that prevent oxidative damage are helpful. Melatonin seems to be helpful in this way, if I understand what has been said. Also vitamin C, to a lesser extent.

  28. Fast Eddy says:

    Leaked Government Report Finds Vaccine Passports Could Actually Increase Spread of COVID


    Of course it will spread it – the injections do NOT stop you from getting covid.

    The intention is to have the infected injected Covidiots to mix to create mutations


    • It is hard to see any benefit from the vaccine passports, other than providing a way to downsize economies that cannot currently support their populations. From this point of view, a person would expect the vaccine passports to be most used where the overshoot problem is worst. For example, major cities in California. US Northeast, especially the major cities. Europe.

  29. Fast Eddy says:

    What is more stuuuupid… a MOREON or a CovIDIOT?

  30. hillcountry says:

    How much energy and time would it take to walk-back this horrible desertification in Germany, Spain and Romania were it even possible to do so on a large enough scale.

    Heatwaves and drought in Europe | DW Documentary

    • hillcountry says:

      European Union dysfunction is described quite well in the interview snips. The part about topsoil being stripped growing cheap grain for exporting cheap pork tells the tale of long-term lunacy. Is there a selection process that guides lunatics to ruling positions?

      • absolutely

        no one else is fool enough.

        you see it at every level of politics

        • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

          Now we are doubling down..too bad you’re old FE and you’ll miss most of it..
          No justice in this world. Life is not fair…Good for you brother!
          Now go out and cuddle your coal…

        • hillcountry says:

          Hey Fast, we need a literate man to occupy the Whitefish Point Lighthouse. He can even wear a crown if that floats his boat. We have abandoned our attempt to secure Zug Island in the Detroit River and are headed north to keep Lake Superior off-limits to enemy ships. You’d be just a whip-and-a-poop from beloved Canada if it comes to that. Thanks for the link. It reminded me of what I had thought about the original meaning of “Lord”, after reading Worlds in Collision in 1970.

        • The story has been repeated endlessly. We expect forests to be everlasting, but ecosystems by their nature go through phases, including burning and regrowth.

          Anything that is not constant is a problem for humans trying to depend on it: rain, wind, temperature, cloudiness.

          There is a big problem when humans interfere with natural ecosystems in an attempt to produce more food, too.

    • hillcountry says:

      There’s a great comment in the Amazon review section of Charles Little’s book (1995) titled: Dying of the Trees – The Pandemic in America’s Forests.

      “Native Americans controlled fuel buildup with periodic low-level burns, but this is impossible today, because of the massive accumulations of fuel. There is no undo button for a century of mistakes. The government cannot afford to thin overgrown forests and remove the excess fuel from many millions of acres, so the stage is set for catastrophic fires. There will come a day when the cost and availability of oil makes modern high-tech firefighting impossible.”

      “Forests often die in slow motion. A speedy decline might take 25 years, and be invisible to casual observers. Forest death increased in the twentieth century, following the extermination of ancient forests. It worsened after World War II, as pollution levels increased. Climate change is likely to cause additional harm.”

      “A vital lesson in this book is to never automatically believe anything. Master the art of critical thinking, and always question authority. Our culture is out of its mind, and many of its deeply held beliefs are bull excrement. Each generation innocently passes this load of excrement to the next, because it’s all they know.”

      “Here’s my favorite passage: “A hand will be raised at the back of the room. ‘But what can we do?’ the petitioner will ask. Do? What can we do? What a question that is when we scarcely understand what we have already done!””

      • Thanks for the quote. I especially think of California’s forests, but I am sure the problem exists almost everywhere.

        Georgia has a lot of forests, as well, but we don’t have a major problem with fires at this time, perhaps because the state is fairly wet.

  31. CTG says:

    This is seriously comical….

    Moscow Outraged After German Defense Minister Advocates ‘First Use’ Nuke Policy Against Russia


    Do the Germans know that Russia is supplying gas to them? I have no words… seriously . I think collapse is the only good option left for homo sapiens.

    • drb says:

      European politicians come from a rigorous breeding program where all intellectual abilities are selected out. Yes, as we approach a wild situation, they will not be able to fend for themselves. One can only hope that their well meaning subjects will be spared as much as possible, but historical precedent says probably not.

      • Thierry says:

        “All intellectual abilities are selected out”. I could not agree more. The educational system and universities are desgined on purpose to select the most conformist people who will have no idea of their own. It has been built over the last 70 years and we can see the result. TPTB wanted sheeps to serve them, unfortunately they did not calculate the price to pay when no one would be able to think at the system level.

    • geno mir says:

      How one uses nuclear first strike against russia when the russian retaliation nukes strike before the attacker’s ones?

    • No one has taught the important of energy supplies of the correct kinds in the school system for years. All students have been taught is fairy tales. No wonder they come up with ridiculous ideas like this.

      • Dennis L. says:

        That is a tragedy for both society and the individual. Unfortunately one of the most consistent lessons taught and learned seems to be that of “How to Win Friends and Influence People.”

        Many years ago I sent my entire dental lab(twenty technicians, support, etc. ) through that course in an attempt to gain group cohesion. It worked more or less, seems I got the idea from the success of the Japanese, some here will no doubt correct that idea. HBR was strong in that area then as I recall.

        I wonder how many here would be ENTP in personality type; we are a very small percentage of the population.

        Dennis L.

        • For those who don’t remember off the top of their heads what ENTP personality types are, this is an explanation I found:


          ENTP: The Debater (Extroverted, Intuitive, Thinking, Perceiving)
          An Overview of the ENTP Personality Type

          ENTPs are also known for being idea-oriented, which is why this personality type has been described as “the innovator,” “the visionary,” and “the debater.”

          I would agree that ENTP personality types are likely greatly over-represented in the comments to OFW. The presence of this personality type here, but rarely elsewhere, might help explain why the subject we discuss seem to be beyond the understanding of many of our close friends and relatives.

          • Bei Dawei says:

            This is based on a Jungian typology, which is in turn inspired by astrology.

          • Aravind says:

            We might have to do a poll to find out! But personally I would tend to take the Myers-Briggs classification with a pinch of salt. May be because I am ENFJ 🙂

            Have been following these issues for the last two decades, including through TOD. Yes, it is indeed hard to put these issues through to most around us.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            There are also a handful of MOREON personality types mixed in … it’s not an acronym… a MOREON is … a MOREON….

        • Sam says:

          The dental profession is one of the more atrocious! Still operating in 1950’s style! Root canal is not needed most of the time but it’s still done!

        • Malcopian says:

          I’m an INTJ. Apparently my J / P scores are 55 / 44, so it’s finely balanced.

      • Student says:

        Fairy tales is a perfect definition. I’m actually full of friends who studied Economics at Univeristy and who actually believe in something similar to ‘Marlin the Magician’ when they talk about energy…

    • Harry says:

      “Do the Germans know that Russia is supplying gas to them? I have no words… seriously”

      I can speak from a German perspective and tell you:
      we are governed by completely crazy and unworldly politicians and the MSM play the accompanying orchestra.
      Many, especially younger people, have no relation at all to the dynamics, peculiarities and sometimes tragedies of life anymore.
      I just call this in german “Wohlstandsverwahrlosung” I am not sure if there is a correct transition in english, maybe “prosperity decadence”.
      A very, very hard awakening will follow.

  32. Yoshua says:

    The coal price is tanking in China. Up and down we go. I can’t make any sense of anything anymore.


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “China’s thermal coal futures slumped to their lowest in more than a month on Wednesday, marking a sixth consecutive day of declines, after the country’s state planner said it would conduct “clean up and rectification” work on coal storage sites [ie seizing coal from those “hoarding” it]…

      “The country’s top economic planner, the National Development & Reform Commission [also] said it would investigate the spread of “fabricated” price information…

      “The probe left coal traders scrambling for price information on spot transactions, and one Shanghai-based trader described the market as “chaotic and pessimistic.””


      • Strange things happen when the people in charge have infinite power. I am sure that cold areas that are saving coal for winter will be most unhappy about having their coal for winter being taken from them.

        • Xabier says:

          In Ancient Egypt, Queen Cleopatra once issued orders for all grain reserves from outlying regions to be transported to her storage in the capital.

          We can be sure many pharoahs did the same in times of crisis.

          ‘Collapse’ is when the centre can no longer issue such orders and have them obeyed automatically, or even when force is applied.

          A wonderful thing to be ruler of China, until it starts to crumble…..

          • Great point, lots of similar situation throughout the middle ages or even later as well.. although these very usually part of shallow collapse-recovery-growth again type of cycles.. when the “center” commanded – hoarded resources from the periphery..

    • No commodity seems to stay absurdly high for very long, it seems. Ultimately, self-organizing system finds ways to reduce the problem. Rolling blackouts cut demand. People cut back on buying discretionary goods. Something happens to try to make the system work again.

      Natural gas and oil prices can’t stay very high for very long, either, I don’t think, unless the general inflation rate is absurd. Even then, their inflation-adjusted price will not be terribly high.

  33. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Moody’s warns of ‘systemic risks’ in private credit industry.

    “The burgeoning private credit industry of lending to buyout groups has grown to about $1tn, but opacity, eroding standards and the difficulty in trading these slices of debt pose “systemic risks”, according to rating agency Moody’s.”


    • Credit industry is very prone to systemic risk. Of course, now with governments bailing out everyone and every organization with more funny money, this systemic risk debt risk may disappear. Instead, the problem will be products that simply aren’t available at any price. For example, magnesium.

  34. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Sri Lanka’s economy seen as a ‘ticking time bomb’.

    “Sri Lanka’s COVID-stricken economy is being likened to a ticking time bomb that could go off at any moment as foreign reserves plummet, the cost of living rises and the central bank carries on printing money.”


  35. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Coal Piles at 24-Year Low at U.S. Utilities on Demand Surge.

    “Coal stockpiles at U.S. power plants plunged to the lowest in at least 24 years as electricity generators burn the fuel faster than miners can dig it out of the ground.”


  36. Harry McGibbs says:

    “China’s Regional Hinterland Suffers as Beijing Reins In Debt.

    “The economic gap between China’s less-developed western region and the wealthier eastern parts of the nation widened in the third quarter as Beijing’s crackdown on property and local government debt weighed on growth.”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “China Gas Stations Ration Diesel Adding to Supply Chain Squeeze…

      “Long lines of vehicles are snaking from pump stations across Guangxi and Anhui province in east and southwest China, with truck drivers uploading videos to social media platforms to share their plight.”


      • China is the world’s biggest importer of petroleum, including petroleum products. If there is not enough to go around, something must be cut back.

        China’s biggest competitor for oil imports (especially diesel) is Europe, taken as a whole. Europe, in the recent past, has consumed far more diesel than China or the US. It shouldn’t be surprising that Europe needs to cut back on its diesel imports. Of course, electric cars don’t really work either.

    • The western part of China requires considerably more energy for transport of goods too and from the area than the eastern part. It is like a landlocked country. I imagine its climate may be a little more harsh as well, because being near the ocean seems to moderate climates.

      If there is not enough energy to go around, it is the western part that will be cut off. The most distant western part is where the Uyghurs live in China. They have been mistreated, I expect, because it is impossible to sustain the current population at such a great distance from the coast and navigable water ways.

  37. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The Global Economy Is Rapidly Slowing Down.

    “Energy inflation is squelching worldwide growth… China’s economic slowdown has been very swift… In the U.S., economic growth has also slowed dramatically…”


    • I notice the following:

      “The Atlanta Fed is now estimating only 0.5% annual third-quarter GDP growth, down from its previous estimate of near-6% annual GDP growth.”

      It wouldn’t take very much to bring down the fourth-quarter GDP growth to contraction. Things aren’t going very well, right now.

  38. alpincesare says:

    > Instead, European economists talked about saving the planet from carbon dioxide. It is an interesting idea,

    Like it’s an option?

    Are we supposed to move to Mars?

    • drb says:

      Over time the planet will re-absorb the CO2. It is not an unusual percentage compared to recent geological history. As we speak, the taiga/boreal forest is moving North at great speed, storing carbon in what used to be permafrost. Also, during two landings in Northern Italy, mid-June and late July, I could see that over half the land was not photosynthesizing, due to wheat being dried, or fields being harvested and not replanted. Over time all that land will be photosynthesizing a much larger fraction of the time.

      • Thierry says:

        Thank you for pointing out this issue! Photsynthesis is largely underestimated by almost everyone making simulations.

      • Hubbs says:

        What percentage of photosynthesis and CO2 incorporation is done by terrestrial vegetation vs marine algae?

        • Thierry says:

          Around 30% for the oceans but their surface is constant while we can increase the surface of forests (and more importantly their volume). So we have more flexibility planting trees than with any other solution. Pieter Hoff answers to this point in his book The Tree solution.

      • I would agree.

        The world’s ecosystem has taken care of itself for a very long time. The system is self-healing. It may throw humans out, if they are too damaging.

        We are kidding ourselves if we think that human leaders have the power to “fix” the current world ecosystem in a way that will deliver precisely the weather conditions we would like.

  39. Fast Eddy says:

    Check it out … they’ve injected just about everyone in SG … the only uninjected would be those who are not allowed – yet – young kids..

    So all these hospitalizations and deaths involve The Poisoned


    hahahahahahahaahahahah F789 the MOREONS!

    • Hideaway says:

      Once again you do not bother to look at the real numbers. Here they are from ….


      “Over the past 7 days, the number of fully vaccinated and non-fully vaccinated cases who are critically ill in the ICU are at 0.5 and 4.3 per 100,000 population respectively. Over the same period, the number of fully vaccinated and non-fully vaccinated cases who died are 0.1 and 0.8 per 100,000 population respectively. Among seniors aged 60 and above, the number of fully vaccinated and non-fully vaccinated cases who are critically ill in the ICU are 2.2 and 31.7 respectively. The number of fully vaccinated and non-fully vaccinated seniors who died are 0.4 and 8.1 respectively.”

      In summary those numbers, ..

      Critically ill …9 times more likely for those unvaccinated
      Death ……. 8 times more likely for those unvaccinated

      Seniors … 14 times more likely to be critically ill for those unvaccinated
      Seniors death… 20 times more likely for those unvaccinated

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Seems it has not occurred to you that when 90% of your population is injected… and most of the remaining 10% is too young to be injected…

        And you have record infections and deaths…. and children do NOT die from covid…or end up in hospital

        Then the vast majority of these infections hospitalizations and deaths must involved injected CovIDIOTS.

        But then a MOREON would not be able to piece this together… that is what defines a MOREON…

        One who is Moreonic

        • Hideaway says:

          Keep ignoring the numbers Eddy. The seniors numbers, those over 60 don’t seem to represent any children as per your post.

          In seniors your 20 times more likely to die being unvaccinated. Remember these are stats from Singapore that you raised to prove your point when they clearly indicate the opposite by a wide margin.

          Based on the numbers from Singapore, stupidity is very much self correcting.

          • Perhaps the vaccines can be helpful if used on only a very limited segment of the population. The selected segment would likely be primarily elderly people with co-morbidities. People over 80 might choose to have the vaccine, even without co-morbidities.

            Leaky vaccines don’t seem to be as much of a problem if they are not widely used. If they are used on people who would likely not be too far from death otherwise, the damage they can do is fairly limited. Immune exhaustion, if it occurs, is likely to coincide with other aspects of health decline.

            If it is true that people’s immune systems primarily learn from early exposures to viruses or vaccines, then giving these vaccines to infants or small children could be a real problem. The virus they are learning to react to is based on the Wuhan spike protein. This version of the virus is now extinct. It would be much better for immune systems of small children to learn to react to the whole virus. This way, they are much more likely to be protected going forward. Small children are very unlikely to have severe cases, anyhow.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            yes hideaway … it makes complete sense when you are the most vaccinated country that you you would have record infections and deaths … many times higher than when nobody was vaccinated…

            And most of the infections and deaths are in the unvaccinated…

            Yes total sense…. I concur… I don’t know what I was thinking….

      • Tim Groves says:

        Of these “non-fully vaccinated cases”, what percentage of them have had a jab or two and are in the hospital or the morgue as a result of that?

        If you have those figures, please share them with us.

  40. Tim Groves says:

    Patriot Nurse – “No, You’re Not Crazy for Standing Firm; The Rest of The World’s Nuts”

    She says we shouldn’t be surprised if 90% people fold and comply because historically 90% of people have been servile. It’s a survival mechanism dreamed up by MR. DNA. That’s how society has always got its slaves and its cannon fodder. But don’t feel bad or disheartened just because you are in the 10% who have a little Spartacus or Conan the Barbarian inside them.

    She also goes on to say that everyone must serve someone, and some of us will serve other people and others will serve the deity. When people have no principles, they will do anything that they are told to do—ANYTHING!

    Then she points out that “the big decisions in life are made by the accumulation of the small ones.” Dunc wasn’t built in a day, and neither was Norm’s pension with the Prudential. So it is with human character.

    A bit preachy, but all in all, a very good sermon.


  41. Fast Eddy says:

    Singapore – World’s Most Vaccinated Country – is experiencing record infections and deaths…

    So they KNOW first hand that the vaccines have failed.

    Yet they are allowing vaxxed people in https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-26/singapore-to-reopen-to-australia-for-travel/100571062

    Now why would they do that????

    The only plausible reason is that they want more injected covidiots to mix with their injected covidiots in the hope that they spread covid to each other … helping the mutations along.

  42. Tim Groves says:

    There have been quite a few cartoonists and animation artists dying in Japan over the past few years. It’s almost as if someone has placed a contract on them.

    In this morning’s newspaper, though, comes news of a remarkable, nay, amazing coincidence. Two brothers working in cartoon/comic/anime/manga field have died within a week of each other, both from pneumonia. These boys were getting on in years, but there seems no reason why both would die in early October, before they’d seen the autumn leaves turn red, gold and orange, and over such a short interval of time, from pneumonia.

    Sanpei Shirato (real name Noboru Okamoto), a cartoonist known for works such as ‘Sasuke’ depicting the activities of the boy ninja Sasuke, died on October 8, 2021 (Friday) due to aspiration pneumonia. He was 89 years old.

    Mr. Shirato’s younger brother, Tetsuji Okamoto, who was in charge of drawing for ‘Kamui Den’, died on October 12, 2021 (Tuesday) due to interstitial pneumonia. He was 88 years old.

    Hint (as Dunc would say): This year since May, 91% of Japanese aged 65 and over have been double vaxed. Just another coincidence, some may interject. But in reply I will observe that COVID-19 vaccination is the single leading cause of coincidence in today’s world.

    • MonkeyBusiness says:

      LOL. There’s a simpler answer. Japanese animators are overworked and underpaid. Abuse is RAMPANT in the industry. This is well known. There are articles and Youtube videos out there describing the phenomenon.

      Look, I don’t trust the vaccines, but that does not mean they are the source of everything wrong in this world.

      • Tim Groves says:

        Fair enough, and some animators have been worked to death while others have been fried alive, but I don’t think these two old codgers were being abused, overworked or underpaid to the point of dying of pneumonia. They had their pensions and were only working for the fun of it.

      • Yorchichan says:

        What about this guy then, who was a tennis physio and only 38 years old:


        You might say young people have always died unexpectedly after short illnesses, but it used to be rare. It’s not so rare these days. It seems to me “after a short illness” is MSM speak for covid-19 vaccine induced blood clots. Otherwise, more details of the short illness would be given.

        • Tim Groves says:

          You’re absolutely right, Yorchichan.

          Died after a short illness. Or died unexpectedly. Don’t mention the shots they had, or if that can’t be avoided, be sure to emphasize that it was a “rare” occurrence and that “things would have been even worse if they hadn’t been vaccinated.”

          A majority of people in most Western nations have rushed to get jabbed as enthusiastically as their ancestors rushed to sign up to fight in the trenches in WWI. I am not surprised that TPTB would implement this kind of operation, but I am flabbergasted by the average person’s gullibility in going along with it.

          Seeing how most of my acquaintances have reacted to “the pandemic” has been a real eye-opener.

  43. Fast Eddy says:

    School board caves to woke kids, approves shockingly immodest dress code to appease ‘non-binary’ students


    A couple of months back I was suggesting to a millennial – who is a fan of miley cyrus – that her knob grinding performance on an awards show was symbolic of how society is being debased…

    He had no problem with the twerking … to which I responded… where does it end… in 5 years if she performs a live sex act at the awards… will that be acceptable?

    Fortunately… we’ll be gone before it gets to that

  44. Ed says:

    Good news after talking with David Rosenfeld one of the two owners of Good Works Entertainment Group, owners of Infinity Music Hall Norfolk, I was issued a refund for the Morgan James Show that after the fact required a vax passport.

    Better news I will see Morgan’s show at Daryl’s House no vax required and a more intimate setting and a shorter drive.

    Now what is the next step in health freedom?

    Do we follow “The Science” of Fauci who killed thousands of gay men in the 80s with AZT? Do we follow Fauci science that killed over a hundred AIDs orphans in NYC as test subjects for pharma? Do we follow Fauci science that has Beagle dogs eaten alive by sand flee with theiir vocal cord cut because other wise the “researchers” could not work with their non stop screaming?

  45. Jimothy says:

    I wonder if we will see more lockdowns, either to rein in fossil fuel usage or to keep things under control. I live in an area with a lot of COVID hysteria (in town) but it seems to have ebbed substantially

    • It seems likely that some areas of the world will see more lockdowns. I am sure that they will serve multiple purposes at once, even though they will not be announces for multiple purposes. Perhaps a new COVID variant will be in the area.

  46. Interguru says:

    Gail: This guy has been reading your postings. Your older postings since his article was published before this article

    Why Everything is Suddenly Getting More Expensive — And Why It Won’t Stop


    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “You’d better prepare for the greatest inflationary wave in human history. It’s going to be really bad.”

      true, and I think he misses the worst of it.

      the Great Inflation will force most people to spend only on essentials, and thus most non essential businesses and industries will be eliminated.

      unfortunately, in the first world, most jobs are in non essential sectors.

      ergo, most jobs will be eliminated.

      at some point in the near future (a decade or two), each extended family may be crowded into a big house, and there might be only one or two of the younger adults who have paying jobs.

      50% unemployment? 75%? 90%?

      older survivors may talk of their memories when almost anyone who wanted a “job” could get one.

      • MonkeyBusiness says:

        How will Bill Gates, Mark Z, etc clean their toilets if their companies went bankrupt?

        Not going to happen. Sorry, the big companies will continue whether they are essential or not and most people will be slaves

        Any scenario that does not involve the super rich maintaining all their privileges and power is BS.

        • Ed says:

          Bill and Mark and friends are massively diversified in their investments.

          • MonkeyBusiness says:

            You can only be diversified and thriving if enough companies survive. Can’t have it both ways.

            The current system works best for the powers that be, so they will try to maintain it as long as they can.

            Bill G is old, but Mark Z is still young. He’s still got 40 to 50 years to go, and maybe more, who knows.

            Remember, the rich really do NOT want to have to clean their toilets. Heck, I am not rich, and I dislike cleaning my own toilet.

            • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

              I hate mowing my lawn..<can't wait till the food markets are clean bared and I have to gaze on the lawn grass for a meal…
              I agree with Gail. Much of the so called riches will evaporate and appear in their true image..
              Read Bill Gates is the largest owner of farm land🐷 in the USA. Without fossil fuel inputs that investment is just wasteland.
              Went to SE Minnesota several years back and took a look at some farm land…no way without machinery, chemical additives and sprays is anything going to be grown and harvested.
              BTW, while driving there, saw massive urban sprawl developments being built, paving over that food producing farmland.
              It's going to get very interesting and testy very soon when the flow turns to ebb.
              Hoping that it does string put a decade longer, before the damn breaks..
              BTW, American Airlines pilots lawsuit to stop the mandate was rejected by a Judge hearing the case. With the FDA approval 😲🙈of 5 year old children getting the jab. How can anyone say it's dangerous?

            • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

              if “the rich” are really oh so smart, then sooner rather than later they will be more and more “diversified” into essential sectors ie food production and distribution, transportation, and energy.

              as long as the electric grid is more or less functional, then perhaps the semi essential internet sector will outlast most other less essential sectors, since it appears that most people are somewhat addictted to internet stuff (OFW!).

              “the rich” could remain rich even as most non essential sectors are eliminated by the crushing economics of decreasing net (surplus) energy.

      • Dennis L. says:

        Maybe consider distribution of workers, older, younger. Currently there is a shortage of people able and willing to do essential jobs, e. g. truck drivers.

        There is a shortage of cashiers able to make change, e.g. Menard’s or local Kwik Trips, they are very slow and sometimes confused.

        Older workers seem to be disappearing from these jobs, perhaps those who did work no longer physically able, or they have inflated assets and don’t work.

        My greatest concern with the farm is maintaining a group able and willing to farm the land, no workers, no rent; I am too old to learn and no longer have the physical endurance to work the long, hard hours.

        Dennis L.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          I just read about the emergency services choppers ditching 5 pilots because they are not injected…


          I went to their website — noting that this is the organization that is always soliciting donations…

          And informed them using the contact form for donations … that My wife and I have donated substantial amounts to them each year but that ends now. Then I pointed them to Singapore’s record covid infections and deaths.

          Hahahahaha… all anonymous of course….

          Now they’ll be wondering which heavy hitter is pulling their funding hahahahahaha… hahahahahahaha….

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Oh fawk… Klimate Change…. stopped reading…

    • Thanks! I am not certain I would agree with all of it. Your wages will indeed buy less, but I think that that is because the shelves in stores will be empty. The result may or may not look like inflation. It may look like job losses and lower prices. Even with these lower prices, with job loss, goods may not be affordable.

      There is also the climate change part of the article that I don’t quite agree with.

  47. hillcountry says:

    Interesting paper about Glutathione-deficiency underlying serious illness. Vitamin D deficiency in connection to Glutathione (GSH) is discussed, with Glutathione-deficiency hypothesized as the primary culprit in harsh outcomes and deaths in Covid-19 patients. GSH consists of Cysteine, Glycine and Glutamate.

    This Russian researcher also has quite a few research collaborations listed at PubMed (>80)

    Endogenous Deficiency of Glutathione as the Most Likely Cause of Serious Manifestations and Death in COVID-19 Patients


    “Patients with moderate and severe COVID-19 illness had lower levels of glutathione and higher ROS and ROS/GSH ratio in plasma than patients with mild disease….”

    “When the antiviral activity of GSH is taken into account, individuals with glutathione deficiency seem to have a higher susceptibility for uncontrolled replication of SARS-CoV-2 virus and thereby suffer from an increasing viral load.”

    “Several studies reported that glutathione levels positively correlate with active vitamin D.”

    “L-cysteine supplementation is known to improve GSH status through upregulation of expression of VDBP, vitamin D 25-hydroxylase, and vitamin D receptor, thereby increasing vitamin D levels and decreasing inflammatory biomarkers in diabetic rats.”

    “This study provides important information that glutathione is essential for the control of endogenous vitamin D biosynthesis and demonstrates potential benefits of GSH treatment in reducing the deficiency of vitamin D. Taken together, these findings suggest that glutathione deficiency rather than vitamin D deficiency is a primary cause underlying biochemical abnormalities, including the decreased biosynthesis of vitamin D, and is responsible for serious manifestations and death in COVID-19 patients.”

    • drb says:

      For those who are interested, the building blocks of glutathione include taurine (best source, offal, specially heart) and glycine (bone broth, chicken skin). Glutathione, like vitamin D, is depleted by excess carbs, which is 90%+ of the population intakes.

      • Thanks for the short summary.

      • It becomes difficult to know what to do.

        I grew up eating a disproportionate amount of offal because my mother had grown up on a farm. When her family butchered, they sold the more expensive cuts to others and kept the offal. We ate liver or heart or tongue regularly (in smallish quantities). My favorite parts of the chickens that my mother bought were the gizzard and the heart.

        Now, skinless chicken breast is what restaurants often serve.

        • Interesting family story, in terms of the “GSH” I wonder if the chicken skin from “factory farm” is any good on that front? I’d believe “free range” chickens to be mightily nurturing-nutritious as the skin is in the sun and elements most of the day..

          • I worry about what chemicals livers might have in them today. In fact, I worry about antibiotics in any part of a chicken or turkey I buy (perhaps for flavoring in soups).

        • Harry says:

          I know from biochemists that liver is nature’s multivitamin, so to speak.
          In the animal kingdom, and I suspect also among indigenous peoples, it is highly sought after by hunters.
          But in fact it is a problem that today only the “cream pieces” are consumed instead of eating everything, as it was common in the past.

          I eat liver about every 3 – 4 weeks.
          The fear of heavy metals etc. is not generally unfounded with today’s livestook business, but the health benefits of liver in particular definitely outweigh this. If possible, organic is to be preferred, of course.

  48. Fast Eddy says:

    More on Original Antigenic Sin and the Folly of Our Universal Vaccination Campaign

    To review: We have now had ten months of mass vaccination against SARS-CoV-2. Nearly 7 billion doses have been administered worldwide. This unprecedented campaign has not eradicated Corona; it has not even suppressed infections. Instead, case statistics have ballooned almost everywhere. While the vaccinated appear to enjoy some protection against severe outcomes, skyrocketing transmission means most countries have seen little benefit, on balance, from their universal vaccination campaigns. The most pressing question has become, simply: What is going on?

    I’ve explored a few different possibilities. First, there seems to be a Marek Effect at work. We might imagine that all viruses have an optimal level of population-wide virulence – an advantageous degree of aggression at which they can spread effectively, while not driving their hosts underground too soon. Certain Delta sub-strains, previously punished for their excessive aggression in unvaccinated populations, have likely been favoured by the vaccines, which reduce symptoms in the vaccinated without preventing infection for more than a few months. Our vaccines reduced the average virulence of SARS-2, and the virus adapted to reattain the prior, optimal balance.


    • This is another excellent article by someone who uses the pen name eugyppius.


      He makes the point that immunity to infections/vaccines is largely imprinted in childhood. Current vaccinations are based on a now-extinct form of the virus. Such imprinting may adversely affect the ability to acquire immunity to later forms of the antibodies.

      He says:

      The most dangerous thing to do, at this point, would be to vaccinate children. The virus is not a threat to them, and if they are infected by the new forms of SARS-2 that are sure to emerge every winter, we will begin to establish – through them and the as yet unvaccinated – the layered immunity that is the only way of coming to terms with SARS-2 in the longer term. As long as the vaccinators are permitted to continue their radical and increasingly insane campaign, though, nothing will improve. Indeed, their policies threaten to bring about a semi-permanent pandemic state for generations to come.

  49. jj says:

    Rogan interviews Dr Pierre Kory and Weinstein about the suppression and effectiveness of Ivermectin on spotify.


    • jj says:

      This video is long. I strongly recommend it. It addresses the arguments against Ivermectin. Any reasonable person will have no doubt that Ivermectin is extremly effective in combatting Covid 19 and there is a very high probability it would end the pandemic after watching it. It raises a interesting point. Ivermectin has the possibility of driving covid 19 extinct now. NOW maybe not later. There is just so much that doesnt make sense about not deploying Ivermectin. It is INSANITY to not deploy ivermectin. The disinformation against ivermectin and not deploying it is killing people. Lots and lots and lots of people.

      • You are right about long. Almost three hours. Perhaps this recording is for people with long commutes, who can listen to it over a period of days.

      • Rodster says:

        “There is just so much that doesnt make sense about not deploying Ivermectin.”

        I think the answer is painfully obvious. Ivermectin is a low cost drug that has been proven to be safe which has been used for decades. Vaccines are a HUGE money maker for the Pharmaceutical drug cartels. They are already raking in 10’s of billions of dollars and in the next year or two they could be approaching 200 billion dollars in revenue with ZERO liability. Bill Gates is an investor in BioNTech which is part of Pfizer.

        • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:


          Politicians MSM Big Pharma are all glued together by the billions of dollars being exchanged among them.

          and yes this could reach into the trillions.

          many “Scientists” are in that loop, where the money is so huge that almost any person would be susceptible to abandoning any scruples and just taking part in the big money.

          it’s just old human nature, though the money is bigger than ever.

      • Kowalainen says:

        It is a fools errand to deploy effective cures against covid. Do you really think that covid is the only spicy stuff in ‘their’ GoF “stew”?


        Face the reality… Game Over…

        • jj says:

          I do not have to go into ICU wards and watch people die their lungs tissue turned from something that had grace and beauty in function to something that represents disorder. There is a solution for this disorder and its not more disorder from this thing they call a vaccine IMO. A gift. We have been given a gift. Ivermectin is a gift. A clear path forward exists. In spite of the dire situation we find ourself in a gift does exist it is there. Why would I accept disorder when there is a solution? Look at the character of those promoting disorder. I do not wish to be in their company. I will promote grace and beauty. Do I consist of grace and beauty? No for I am a human. I do know their is very little that matters to me other than grace and beauty. I will direct my energy to that truth. IMO this is the choice that is before us. People know it in their hearts, their intuition , their essence.

          Many of the things we thought were within our control are being proved not in our control. That does not mean that we do not have choice. We can only accept the things not within our control.

          Those that visit this blog are not faint of heart and they are analysts. That does not mean that they do not have a essence. Is it of value? If it is not of value what is?

          Disorder will not stand in the light. It has no chance in the light. It is not grace and beauty that has no chance but disorder if people choose the light. Disorders only chance is that people choose disorder. That is the choice that is before us collectively. We know not what the collective will choose. My choice is made. My actions are a function of that choice now.

          • It is impossible for people to believe that inexpensive drugs are available, but doctors are not being told about them and are not using them. The whole situation is beyond bizarre.

    • jj says:

      Dr Kory has had success treating “vaccine” injury with ivermectin. The mechanism is still not completely understood but ivermectin binding to the spike proteins. Some of the incidents of “vaccine” injury symptoms are very similar to long covid symptoms. Ivermectin is effective in many cases in treating long covid as well as some of the cases of “vaccine” injury.

    • MM says:

      Officially administering horse dewormer now will invalidate the past and create some big questions. Better try to eradicate any knowledge about that.

      A system based on a lie must fail because of diminishing returns on lying.

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