Spike in energy prices suggests that sharp changes are ahead

An analysis of what is going terribly wrong in the world economy

The world economy requires stability. People living in the world economy need stability, as well. They need food every day and a place to live. Children need a home situation that they can count on.

Back in the 1950 to 1979 era, when energy supplies of many kinds were growing rapidly, it was possible to build stability into the economic system: Jobs with a company were often long-time careers; pensions after retirement were offered; electricity was sold through regulated “utilities” that charged prices that wrapped in long-term maintenance of the electric grid and the cost of fuel, among other things.

But as high energy prices hit in the 1970s, the system became more and more strained. The mood changed. Margaret Thatcher became the Prime Minister of the UK in 1979, and Ronald Reagan became President of the United States in 1981. Under their leadership, debt was increasingly used to cover longer-term costs, and competition was encouraged. A person might say that a move toward greater complexity, but less stability, of the economic system had begun.

Now, through several iterations, the economy has become increasingly complex, with less and less redundancy to provide stability. The energy price spike that is being experienced today is a warning that something is very, very wrong. As I see the situation, the trend toward complexity has gone too far; the economic system is starting to break down. Sharp changes appear to be ahead. The world economy is shifting into contraction mode, with more and more parts of the system failing.

In this post, I will discuss some of the issues involved. It turns out that energy modelers haven’t understood how detrimental intermittency really is. They modeled intermittent electricity from renewables (wind, water and solar) as far more helpful than it really is. This has been confusing to everyone. The sharp changes that the title of this post refers to represent an early stage of economic collapse.

[1] If energy supplies are inexpensive and widely available, it is easy to build an economy.

I have written in the past about the need for energy supplies to keep the economy functioning properly being analogous to the need for food, to keep humans functioning properly.

The economy doesn’t operate on a single type of energy, any more than a human lives on a single type of food. The economy uses a portfolio of energy types. These include human labor, energy directly from sunlight, and energy from burning various types of fuels, including biomass and fossil fuels.

As long as energy sources are inexpensive and readily available, an economy can grow and provide goods and services for an increasing number of citizens. We can think of this as being analogous to, “As long as buying and preparing food takes little of our wages (or time, if we are growing it ourselves), then there are plenty of wages (or time) left over for other activities.”

But once energy prices start spiking, it looks like there is not enough to go around. In the absence of ways to hide the problem, citizens need to cut back on non-essentials, pushing the economy into recession. Or businesses stop making essential products that require natural gas or coal, such as fertilizer or fuel additives to hold emissions down. The lack of such products can, by itself, be very disruptive to an economy.

[2] Once energy supplies become constrained, energy prices tend to spike. In the early stages of these price spikes, adding complexity allows the economy to better tolerate higher energy costs.

There are many ways to work around the problem of rising energy prices, at least temporarily. For example:

  • Build vehicles, such as cars, that are smaller and more fuel efficient.
  • Extend fossil fuel supplies by building nuclear power plants, hydroelectric generating plants, wind turbines, solar panels, and geothermal electricity generation.
  • Make factories more efficient.
  • Add insulation to buildings; eliminate any cracks that might allow outside air into buildings.
  • Instead of pre-funding capital costs, use debt to transfer these costs to later purchasers of energy products.
  • Encourage competition in providing different parts of electricity production and distribution.
  • Develop time-of-day pricing for electricity, so as to keep prices down to the marginal cost of production, even though this does not, in total, repay all costs of production and distribution.
  • Cut back on routine maintenance of electricity transmission systems.
  • Purchase coal and natural gas imports using spot pricing, rather than long term contracts, as long as these seem to be lower-priced than long-term commitments.
  • Throughout the economy, take advantage of economies of scale and mechanization. Build huge companies. Replace human labor wherever possible.
  • Stimulate the economy by increasing debt availability and lowering interest rates. This is helpful because a more rapidly growing economy can withstand higher energy prices.
  • Use global supply chains to source as large a share of manufacturing inputs as possible from countries with low wages and low energy costs.
  • Build very “lean” just-in-time supply chains.
  • Create complex financial systems, with debt resold and repackaged in different ways, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds.

Together, these approaches comprise “complexity.” They tend to make the economic system less resilient. At least temporarily, they pass fewer of the higher costs of energy products through to current citizens. As a result, the economy can temporarily withstand a higher price of energy. But the system tends to become brittle and prone to failure.

[3] There are limits to added complexity. In fact, complexity limits are what are likely to make the economic system fail.

Joseph Tainter, in The Collapse of Complex Societies, makes the point that there are diminishing returns to added complexity. For example, the changes that result in the biggest gains in fuel savings for vehicles are the ones added first.

Another drawback of added complexity is the extreme wage disparity that tends to result. Instead of everyone earning close to the same amount, those at the top of the hierarchy get a disproportionate share of the wages. This is what leads to many of the problems we are seeing today. Would-be workers don’t want to apply for jobs, even when they seem to be available. Citizens become unhappy and rebellious. Lower-paid workers may not eat well, so that pandemics spread more easily.

The underlying problem is that population tends to rise, but it becomes harder and harder to produce food and other necessities with the arable land and energy resources available. Ugo Bardi uses Figure 1 to show the shape of the expected decline in goods and services produced in such a situation:

Figure 1. Seneca Cliff by Ugo Bardi.

According to Bardi, Seneca in the title refers to a statement written by Lucius Annaeus Seneca in 91 CE, “It would be of some consolation for the feebleness of ourselves and our works if all things should perish as slowly as they come into being. As it is, increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.” In fact, this shape seems to approximate the type of cycle Turchin and Nefedov observed when analyzing several agricultural civilizations that collapsed in their book Secular Cycles.

[4] An increasing amount of complexity has been added since 1981 to help compensate for rising oil and other energy prices.

The prices of commodities, including oil, tend to be extremely variable because storage is very limited, relative to the large quantities used every day. There needs to be a very close match between supply and demand, or prices will rise very high or fall very low.

Oil is exceptionally important because it is the single largest source of energy for the world economy. It is heavily used in food production and in the extraction of minerals of all types. If the price of oil increases, the price of food tends to rise, as does the price of metals of many types. Oil is also important as a transportation fuel.

In the early days, before depletion led to higher extraction costs, oil prices remained stable and low (Figure 2), as a result of utility-type pricing by the Texas Railroad Commission. Oil prices started to spike, once depletion became more of a problem.

Figure 2. Brent-equivalent oil prices in 2020 US$. Based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Economists tell us that oil and other commodity prices depend on “supply and demand.” When we look at turning points for oil prices, it becomes clear that financial manipulations play a significant role in determining oil demand. Such manipulations lead to prices that have practically nothing to do with the underlying cost of producing commodities. The huge changes in prices seem to reflect actions by central bankers to encourage or discourage lending (QE on Figure 3).

Figure 3. Monthly Brent oil prices with dates of US beginning and ending Quantitative Easing. Later Quantitative Easing did not bring oil prices back up to their prior level.

Quantitative easing (QE) makes it cheaper to borrow money. Adding QE tends to raise oil prices; deleting QE seems to reduce oil prices. These prices have little direct connection with the cost of extracting oil from the ground. Instead, prices are closely related to the amount of complexity being added to the system and whether it is having its intended impact on energy prices.

At the time of the 1973-1974 oil crisis, many people thought that the world was truly running out of oil. The petroleum industry did, indeed, succeed in extracting more. The 2005 to 2008 period was another period of concern that the world might be running out of oil. Then, in 2014, when oil prices suddenly fell, the dominant story suddenly became, “There is plenty of oil. The world’s biggest problem is climate change.”

In fact, there was no real reason to believe that the shortage situation had changed. US oil from shale had a brief run-up in production in the 2007 to 2019 period, but this production was unprofitable for producers, especially after oil prices dropped in 2014 (Figures 2 and 3). Producers of oil from shale are no longer investing very much in new production. With the sweet spots of fields depleted and this low level of investment, it will not be surprising if oil production from shale continues to fall.

Figure 4. US crude and condensate oil production for the 48 states, Alaska, and for shale basins, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.

The real story is that the supply of oil, coal and natural gas is limited by the extent to which additional complexity can be added to the economy, to keep selling prices so that they are both:

  • High enough for producers of these products, so that they can both pay adequate taxes and make adequate reinvestment.
  • Low enough for consumers, especially for the many consumers around the world with very low wages.

Many people have missed the point that, at least since 2014, financial manipulations have not kept prices for fossil fuels high enough for producers. Low prices are driving them out of business. This is the case for oil, coal and natural gas. In fact, low prices caused by giving wind and solar priority on the electric grid are driving producers of nuclear electricity out of business, as well.

Oil producers require a price of $120 a barrel or more to cover all of their costs. Without a much higher price than available today (even with oil prices over $80 per barrel), shale oil production can be expected to fall. In fact, OPEC and its affiliates won’t ramp up production by very large amounts either because they, too, need much higher prices to cover all their costs.

[5] Economists and analysts of many types put together models that give misleading results because they missed several important points.

After oil prices fell in late 2014, it became fashionable to believe that vast amounts of fossil fuels are available for extraction, and that our biggest problem in the future would be climate change. Besides low prices, one reason for this concern was the high level of fossil fuel proven reserves reported by many countries around the world.

Figure 5. Ratio of reported proven reserves at December 31, 2020, to reported production in 2020 based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Even fossil fuel companies started to invest in renewables because of the poor returns experienced from fossil fuel investments. It looked to them as if investment in renewables would be more profitable than continued investment in fossil fuel production. Of course, the profits of renewables were largely the result of government subsidies, particularly the subsidy of “going first.” Giving wind and solar first access when they happen to be available tends to lead to very low, and even negative, wholesale prices for other electricity producers. This drives these other producers of electricity out of business, even though they are really needed to correct for the intermittency of renewables.

There were many things that hardly anyone understood:

  • Energy prices in today’s financially manipulated economy bear little relationship to the true cost of production.
  • Fossil fuel producers need to be guaranteed long-term high prices, if there is to be any chance of ramping up production.
  • Intermittent renewables (including wind, solar, and hydroelectric) have little value in a modern economy unless they are backed up with a great deal of fossil fuels and nuclear electricity.
  • Our real problem with fossil fuels is a shortage problem. Price signals are very misleading.
  • The models of economists are mostly wrong. The use of carbon pricing and intermittent renewables will simply disadvantage the countries adopting them.

The reason why geologists and fossil fuel producers give misleading information about the amount of oil, coal and natural gas available to be extracted is because it is not something they can be expected to know. In a sense, the question is, “How much complexity can the economy withstand before it becomes too brittle to handle a temporary shock, such as a pandemic shutdown?” It isn’t the amount of fossil fuels in the ground that matters; it is the follow-on effects of the high level of complexity on the rest of the economy that matters.

[6] At this point, ramping up fossil fuel production would be very difficult because of the long-term low prices for fossil fuels. Unfortunately, the economy cannot get along with only today’s small quantity of renewables.

Figure 6. World energy supply by type, based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Most people don’t realize just how slowly renewables have been ramping up as a share of world energy supplies. For 2020, wind and solar together amounted to only 5% of world energy supplies and hydroelectric amounted to 7% of world energy supplies. The world economy cannot function on 12% (or perhaps 20%, if more items are included) of its current energy supply any more than a person’s body can function on 12% or 20% of its current calorie intake.

Also, the world’s reaction to the pandemic acted, in many ways, like oil rationing. Figure 6 shows that consumption was reduced for oil, coal and natural gas. An even bigger impact was on the prices of these fuels. Prices fell, even though the cost of production was not falling. (See, for example, Figure 2 for the fall in oil prices.)

These lower prices left fossil fuel providers even worse off financially than they were previously. Some providers went out of business. They certainly do not have reserve funds set aside to develop the new fields that they would need to develop, if they were to ramp up production for oil, coal and natural gas now. Because of this, it is virtually impossible to ramp up fossil fuel production now. A lead time of at least several years is needed, besides a clear way of funding the higher production.

[7] Every plant and animal and, in fact, every growing thing, needs to win the battle against intermittency.

As mentioned in the introduction, humans need to eat on a regular basis. Hunter-gatherers solved the problem of intermittency of harvests by moving from area to area, so that their own location would match the location of food availability. Early agriculture and cities became possible when the growing of grain was perfected. Grain was both storable and portable, so it could be used year around. It could also be brought to cities, allowing people to live in a different location from where the crops were stored.

We can think of any number of adaptations in the plant and animal kingdom to intermittency. Some birds migrate. Bears hibernate. Deciduous trees lose their leaves each fall and grow them back again each spring.

Our supply of any of our energy products is in some sense intermittent. Oil wells deplete, so new ones need to be drilled. Biomass burned for fuel grows for a while, before it is cut down (or falls down) and is burned for fuel. Solar energy is available only until a cloud comes in front of the sun. In winter, solar energy is mostly absent.

[8] Any modeling of the cost of energy needs to take into account the full system needed to “bridge the intermittency gap.”

As far as I can see, the only pricing system that generates enough funds is one that takes into account the full system needs, including the need to overcome intermittency and the need for transportation of the energy to the user. In fact, I would argue that even more than this needs to be included. Good roads are generally required if the system is to be kept in good repair. Good schools are needed for would-be workers in the energy system. Any costs associated with pollution should be wrapped into the required price. Thus, the true cost of energy generation really should include a fairly substantial load for taxes for all of the governmental services that the system requires. And, of course, all parts of the system should pay their workers a living wage.

This high level of pricing can only be provided by utility type pricing of fossil fuels and electricity. The use of long-term contracts to purchase fossil fuels, uranium or electricity can also build in most of these costs. The alternative approach, buying fuels using spot contracts or pricing based on time of day electricity supply, looks appealing when costs are low. But such systems don’t build in sufficient funding for replacement of depleted fields or the full cost of a 24/7/365 electrical system.

Modelers didn’t understand that the “low prices now, higher prices later” approaches that were being advocated don’t really work for the long term. As limits are approached, prices tend to spike badly. Modelers had assumed that the economic system could handle such spikes in prices, and that the spikes in prices would quickly lead to new supply or adaptation. In fact, huge spikes in prices are very disruptive to the system. New supply is what is really needed, but providers tend to be too damaged by previous long periods of artificially low prices to provide this supply. The approach looks great in academic papers, but it leads to rolling blackouts and unfilled natural gas reservoirs for winter.

[9] Major changes for the worse seem to be ahead for the world economy.

At this point, it seems as if complexity has gone too far. The pandemic moved the world economy in the direction of contraction but prices of fossil fuels tend to spike as the economy opens up.

Figure 7. Chart by BBC/Bloomberg. Source: BBC

The recent spikes in prices are highly unlikely to produce the natural gas, coal and oil that is required. They are more likely to cause recession. Fossil fuel suppliers need high prices guaranteed for the long term. Even if such guarantees could be provided, it would still take several years to ramp up production to the level needed.

The general trend of the economy is likely to be in the direction of the Seneca Cliff (Figure 1). Everything won’t collapse all at once, but big “chunks” may start breaking away.

The debt system is a very vulnerable part. Debt is, in effect, a promise of goods or services made with energy in the future. If the energy isn’t there, the promised goods and services won’t be available. Governments may try to hide this problem with new debt, but governments can’t solve the underlying problem of missing goods and services.

Pension systems of all kinds are also vulnerable. If fewer goods and services are being made in total, they will need to be divided up differently. Pensioners are likely to get a reduced share, or nothing at all.

Importers of fossil fuels seem likely to be especially affected by price spikes because exporters have the ability to cut back in the quantity available for export, if total supply is inadequate. Europe is one part of the world that is especially dependent on oil, natural gas and coal imports.

Figure 8. Total energy production and consumption of Europe, based on data of BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. The gap between consumption and production is filled by imports of oil, coal, natural gas and biofuels. Within Europe, countries also import electricity from each other.
Figure 9. Europe energy production by fuel based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

The combined production of hydroelectric, wind and solar and biofuels (in Figure 9) amounts to only 19% of Europe’s total energy consumption (shown in Figure 8). There is no possible way that Europe can get along only with renewable energy, at any foreseeable time in the future.

European economists should have told European citizens, “There is no way you can get along using renewables alone for many, many years. Treat the countries that are exporting fossil fuels to you very well. Sign long term contracts with them. If they want to use a new pipeline, raise no objection. Your bargaining power is very low.” Instead, European economists talked about saving the planet from carbon dioxide. It is an interesting idea, but the sad truth is that if Europe takes itself out of the contest for energy imports, it mostly leaves more fossil fuels for exporters to sell to others.

China stands out as well, as the world’s largest consumer of energy, and as the world’s largest importer of oil, coal and natural gas. It is already encountering electricity shortages that are leading to rolling blackouts. In fact, rolling blackouts in China started almost a year ago in late 2020. China is, of course, a major exporter of goods to the rest of the world. If China has major energy problems, the rest of the world will no longer be able to count on China’s exports. Lack of China’s exports, by itself, could be a huge problem for the rest of the world.

I could continue speculating on the changes ahead. The basic problem, as I see it, is that we have reached limits on oil, coal and natural gas extraction, pretty much simultaneously. The limits are really complexity limits. The renewables that we have today aren’t able to save us, regardless of what the models of Mark Jacobson and others might say.

In the next few years, I am afraid that we will find out how collapse actually proceeds in a very interconnected world economy.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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4,474 Responses to Spike in energy prices suggests that sharp changes are ahead

  1. Fast Eddy says:



    He is aging …

  2. Fast Eddy says:



  3. China’s power crisis: in export showroom Yiwu, some businesses wonder if they’ll survive

    Many factories in Chinese export hub Yiwu, Zhejiang province, have been forced to cut production because of power rationing

    As factories close, China’s supply chains, barely recovered from the Covid-19 pandemic last year, are being challenged again.


    China is facing its worst power crisis in years due to a coal shortage.
    Australia has the coal Beijing needs, but the world’s second-largest economy is unlikely to reverse an unofficial ban on Australian coal imports anytime soon, analysts told CNBC.

    China is likely to push Indonesian suppliers for more coal but they are nearly at peak capacity.
    Abhinav Gupta

    “China has also been trying to get more Mongolian and Russian coal to cater to its demand; however, there is some competitive pressure for Russian coal from the European buyers. We have also seen China buying more coal from suppliers in the Atlantic, such as US and Colombia,” Gupta said by email


    Power crisis brewing in China likely to hit Indian pharma companies
    Delays in consignments, rising prices of key ingredients worry industry


    China rations diesel amid fuel shortages

    Petrol stations in many parts of China have begun rationing diesel amid rising costs and falling supplies.

    Some truck drivers are having to wait entire days to refuel, according to posts on social media site Weibo.

    China is currently in the midst of a massive power crunch, as coal and natural gas shortages have closed factories and left homes without power.

    And this latest issue is only likely to contribute to an ongoing global supply chain crisis, say analysts.


    China petrol price surge exacerbates energy crisis


    Stagflation in China is a ‘very real’ risk in the next couple of quarters, says analyst

    A high producer price index and power crunch have made it difficult for Beijing to stimulate the economy aggressively, said Chu.

    The slowdown in the real estate sector has “very severely” hit China’s economic growth, but confidence in the primary property market is not yet collapsing, she said.


    What do rising energy prices mean for inflation in China and the US?
    While energy and commodity investments are a good hedge against inflation, recent prices have been very high
    It’s likely that the worst of the energy crisis is behind us in China, though the near-term outlook is less certain in the US and Europe


    Why China’s Supply Chains Are Breaking Down

    Fear of coronavirus outbreaks and recent manufacturing struggles are causing disruptions with global ripple effects.


  4. Fast Eddy says:



  5. Fast Eddy says:

    Video – Tremors, seizures, blood clots and death caused by Covid Vaccines


    Trust me… if you hate CovIDIOTS… you will LOVE that video hahaha

  6. Fast Eddy says:

    Another version of let’s go brandon – prefaced by Biden stating the vaccine will stop you from getting covid


  7. Fast Eddy says:

    Social media banned this????

    Speaking about the songs YouTube ban, Gray told The New York Post: “If you’re going to ban people, you’ve got to remain consistent. There’s rap songs out there about killing people. On YouTube you can talk about murder, you can talk about sex, you can talk about whatever you want, but I can’t simply question the narrative or I’ll get banned. When did they start banning art?”

    The track was also banned from Instagram, with the sharing platform explaining they rejected the song for spreading “harmful” misinformation. Instagram claim that the song violates community guidelines for sharing “harmful false information” about Covid-19. This referred to lyrics such as: “Pandemic ain’t real, they just planned it” and “Biden said the jab stop the spread, it was lies”.


  8. Fast Eddy says:

    This nightmare… is almost over… thank the lord


  9. Fast Eddy says:

    Death to Humans:

    Experimenters Pulled Dogs‘ Teeth Out, Cut Their Gums Apart, and Killed Them

    In a Swedish laboratory, experimenters took six black Labradors – Mimosa, Milia, Luna, Venus, Lotus, and Zuri – removed their teeth, and cut apart their gums, likely subjecting them to swelling and bleeding. The dogs were also put at risk of suffering from chronic pain as a result of nerve damage or infection. After the tests, they were killed and further experimented on – treated as if they were nothing more than test tubes with tails.

    Dogs‘ status as “man‘s best friend“ offers them no protection from being locked up in laboratories and forced to endure excruciating procedures.

    • D. Stevens says:

      Wouldn’t surprise me if experiments like that were also happening to prisoners in some corners of the world. A friend of mine works in Oregon over seeing animal experiments. Animal experiments need to be approved and justified. There’s a process so it’s not done needlessly or without justification for using animals. Standards might be less in other nations causing that work to be outsourced. Maybe aliens experiment on people for their science and product safety which is why so many people mysteriously disappear? Hopefully they have a review process to not waste humans needlessly or cruelly. I’m sure the humans will feel better about it thanks to the careful review process.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I don’t see why they need to experiment on animals when there are billions of MOREONS available…

        Why not just snatch homeless people… drug addicts… welfare bums… perhaps some lawyers … politicians? ….and conduct these experiments on them?

        Did I forget to mention old people… they have no use so why not force them to give back to society before they kick off…

        They will probably be okay with this if they are told they are doing it for the team … after all the MOREONS have injected the covid vax experiment for this reason… just feed them a little PR….

        Remember Maddie? All we need are some parents like hers to enrol their kids in testing … I’d prefer to see their kids heads opened with a table saw rather than that poor cat’s.

        Give some of the kids to Fauci instead of puppies. norm – can you donate your new grand child? It’s for a good cause….

        Mengele had it right … as did the Japanese in China…. if the humans are going to benefit from vile experiments … then Experiment on The Humans!!!!

        And because MOREONS have human anatomies… they make the perfect subjects for these experiments…. WTF are they thinking experimenting on cats and dogs… other than having a similar intellect there is little cross over….

        We need to rewrite the history books… Mengele needs to go down as a hero of modern medicine.

      • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

        One thing is clear… Anything inhumanely can be JUSTIFIED!
        Refer to the journal musings of Thomas Merton reflecting on the NASZI
        “treatment” of concentration camp inmates…
        From what I recall he was 😱 by the fact they were deemed sane, rational and upstanding members of society and their profession. Of course, the protocols were all met, so responsibility was not on them.
        Also, the corporations supplying these facilities profited handsomely and naturally were absolved from responsibility of the end result!
        Seems to me we’ve learned a great deal from them today

    • Xabier says:

      They use the least aggressive, most docile and trusting, breeds of dog for their experiments: labradors, beagles.

      Bred to be loyal companions to gentleman.

      Then they fall into the hands of sadists and scientists.

      Wouldn’t it be lovely to lock these bastards in cages with hungry dobermans, rottweilers, or my favourite: the doggo argentino?

      Adios, amigos…..

      • geno mir says:

        I vote for the dogo argentino. If put on stream it will be total hit. Perhaps even more than ufc style matches.

  10. It will be necessary to collapse all countries not in Europe or North America, quick. Not much time remaining.

    If they stop using resources, then the world will gain another chance.

  11. Yoshua says:

    “China’s thermal coal futures tumbled 47% in eight days, regulators meet to discuss measures to intervene in coal prices”

    From ~2000 yuan to ~1000 in a week. At least there’s some volatility.

    • D. Stevens says:

      I saw an article about this but not sure how it works. It sounded like price controls and doesn’t that always lead to a shortage? The article was unclear on how they’re going to achieve the lower price while maintaining supply. Things sound very dire in China and I don’t understand how factories can survive intermittent power when they really need continuous supply to prevent damage to the machines.

  12. CTG says:

    “I enjoy the articles and commentary on this site, but in the real world it seems like businesses are doing great, stocks are doing great, everyone I know is flush with cash. ”

    Anyone remember Nassim Taleb’s turkey anecdote?


    Past and present performance does not represent the same performance over the future.

    • CTG says:

      The run up on prices and shortages of Fossil Fuel does not surprise anyone who has been on OFW for at least one year.

      For those who are already on this blog for more than a decade, we can only say “It took a long time and seriously debt helps a lot but in the end, you cannot beat the game anymore”

    • D. Stevens says:

      I recently had a meeting at work which went over financial results. Best/Most sales in 20 years. It was a great year. Costs are up but orders are way way up. Some supply chain issues from suppliers and we lead times for customers are increasing, more late orders. Factory throughput is at near maximum. The material we process is nearly all derived from oil and gas. Unsure how this is sustainable but so far it’s sunshine and rainbows. Profits are up even considering inflation but I wonder if inflation is higher than they estimate. Late orders on both input and output are treading up each month so maybe at some point it will seize? Looking at the trendline if nothing changes we’ll be at 100% late orders sometime in 2023. Flame burns brightest just before it goes out?

      • “Flame burns brightest just before it goes out?”

        Perhaps that is the explanation.

      • jodytishmack says:

        Businesses are suffering from supply chain issues and labor shortages…and now in some countries there are energy shortages. Customers may be willing to accept late orders because it’s “Better late, than never.”

        I feel like things in our economy will work until they don’t. I try to be prepared and to continue using the economy while it lasts. I’m sure some portion of current orders may be driven by panic, people thinking they better get it now or it won’t be available. Some businesses may also be trying to stock up and keep inventory needed to manufacture products on site. There are a lot of things changing very rapidly and I don’t think any one knows where this is heading.

        One thing for certain, inflation reduces the buying power of our savings so we might as well spend money if we have it rather than hold onto it. This spending will stimulate the economy until prices rise too high or supplies are just unavailable. If resources are still available but supplies have been limited by low prices and low investment, then the supply chain will eventually refill and the prices should decline.

        I’ve thought for the last 10 years that our economic system would collapse anytime. Yet, here we are. I watch as weather disasters occur with more frequency but instead of harming the economy it seems to stimulate it. Three months after Hurricane Harvey flooded Houston there was news about the car market going strong. Not one reporter made the connection to all the cars lost in Houston. People seem to be very short sighted.

  13. CTG says:

    Good morning UK…

    “Truly Dark Day For Drivers” – UK Petrol Prices Hit Record Highs As Winter Of Discontent Nears


  14. Fast Eddy says:

    Mark Crispin Miller, NYU Professor and News From Underground publisher, joins James Corbett to discuss his specialty: propaganda.

    In true #SolutionsWatch style, they discuss ways to identify and dissect propaganda, as well as how to help others to see through common propaganda techniques.


    • Xabier says:

      It’s quite useless: those who are resistant to propaganda can already see through it, while those who are susceptible will rarely be able to wake up.

      It’s a very professional operation which we are being subjected to, with huge funding, and they have had decades to experiment and perfect the dark art of manipulation.

      Propaganda exists because it works, very well.

      Rationality and information alone cannot defeat it – above all in an age of intense censorship and persecution – only strong ethical and spiritual values which can recognise the Dark and reject it.

    • What isn’t propaganda, in today’s world.

  15. Jarle says:

    … and greedy psychopaths rejoice!

  16. Yoshua says:

    The S&P 500 broke down from its trend line in September. It is now retesting the trend line…and at the same time doing an all time high. The Fed is still in control and doing magic.


  17. Fast Eddy says:

    Woke mob attacks BBC over publishing stories of lesbians ‘being pressured into sex by some trans women’

    Another recalled how her own girlfriend accused her of being “transphobic” and “immediately jumped to make me feel guilty about not wanting to sleep with someone” after she said she didn’t want to have a threesome with a trans woman, who had not undergone genital surgery and still had a male organ.


    When life is a hard core p orn movie… it’s time to end this mess

  18. Fast Eddy says:

    Girl, 13, ‘bullied’ at school for getting Covid vaccine as anti-vaxx fears grow

    “[One child] declared that because [she] had the vaccine, that meant she had now been injected with Covid – so if anyone went near her she would pass Covid on to them,” her parent wrote.

    After this point, several children refused to sit next to the young girl in class or during lunch break, leaving her feeling “extremely distressed and confused”.

    The parent writes that this is unlikely to be the only such case across the country.

    NHS figures released last week showed that the campaign to vaccinate healthy 12-15 year-olds is moving very slowly, with take-up rates being as low as 3.5 percent.


    Hahahaha… don’t stop there… kick her teeth in … f789ing variant factories need to be Punished

  19. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Fertiliser scarcity hits Punjab, Rajasthan, three other states, crops affected.

    “Sowing of mustard, gram & wheat may be hit for want of Di-Ammonium Phosphate.”


  20. Fast Eddy says:

    With 1.75 million unvaxxed or not boosted, Israel risks dropping ball – expert

    ‘We’re not finishing the job,’ laments Prof. Eran Segal; Israel has 650,000 eligible for coronavirus vaccine shots who haven’t received any, and 1.1 million resisting boosters


    Prepping to blame the unboosted

    • Xabier says:

      That’s happening in the UK, too.

      A professor of epidemiology was blaming the unvaxxed for taking up hospital beds and ‘denying people cancer treatment’ !!!!

      Next we will be called murderers plain and simple……a total inversion of the truth.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Double Vaxxed = Unvaxxed in Israel … and everywhere else in due course…

        I wonder if the Betrayed CovIDIOTS will wake up when they are the ones blamed for the mutations

        Not that they can do anything about it

  21. Fast Eddy says:

    China’s power crisis sends magnesium prices skyward, choking supply chain and leaving Europe desperate

    Global automotive industry depends on magnesium, but China has nearly a complete monopoly on the industry, producing 87 per cent of the world’s supply

    Magnesium production is power-intensive and emits five times more carbon pollutants than steel production, meaning some smelting plants may be shut down for several months


  22. Fast Eddy says:

    More Boosters!!!

    Hong Kong will soon start giving out Covid-19 booster shots to the elderly, those at higher risk of infection and people inoculated with China’s Sinovac BioTech Ltd. vaccine, following places like Singapore and the mainland which are already deep in their own third-dose rollouts.

    Those over the age of 60, health workers, as well as airport, hotel and customs staff should get a third shot six months after their second dose, experts serving on panels for the Centre for Health Protection recommended late Wednesday.


  23. Fast Eddy says:

    Breaking News

    Texas Governor Approves Pfizer Covid Vaccine as Lethal Injection for Death Row Inmates


  24. Very Far Frank says:

    Tim earlier mentioned that South Asians are at greater risk of coronary problems due to narrower arteries- this piqued my interest in the ethnic differences in the risk profile for heart problems.

    Interestingly, the only section on this British Heart Foundation page on risk that is inaccessible (page not found) is the section on ethnicity:


    Wild conjecture, but could this missing page be an artifact, and could differing coronary risk between ethnic groups be an aspect of the CEP? Are organisations deliberately being told to downplay this association in order to let the frog simmer?

  25. Fast Eddy says:

    Yale disease expert tells parents to pull kids out of schools, educate them at home to avoid jab mandates


    • Ed says:

      first bit of respect for Yale in a long time

    • “Risch is a professor of epidemiology in the Department of Epidemiology and Public Health at the Yale School of Public Health and Yale School of Medicine. A former member of the board of editors for the American Journal of Epidemiology, he is an author of more than 350 original peer-reviewed research publications.”

      He would pull kids out of school, rather than give them the vaccine.

    • As a self-proclaimed “humanist,” Fauci was given an award by the American Human Association earlier this year, when the group proclaimed him its 2021 “Humanist of the Year.”

      It is really hard to see why the Catholics wanted to honor him.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Keep in mind Catholics are child molesters. Creepy Fauci surely has indulged… perhaps the priests sacrifice 7 year olds to tony and the tranny wife…. trannies are tremendously creepy — and mentally disturbed….

  26. Fast Eddy says:

    CDC approves fourth COVID shot for the ‘immunocompromised,’ third for pregnant women





    norm – when do you get 4? dunc?

  27. Fast Eddy says:

    Are Scientists Cooking Up More Lethal Versions of COVID?

    Evidence shows scientists have created a more lethal SARS-CoV-2 variant that bypasses acquired immunity or negates the immunity you normally would have after recovering from the infection.


  28. Fast Eddy says:

    51,007 Total Breakthrough COVID Cases Reported in Massachusetts, Which Is 1.08% Of Vaccinated People


  29. Fast Eddy says:

    In an interview Tuesday with the Centre for Research on Globalization, Dr. Peter McCullough discussed a wide range of issues related to the COVID vaccines, including how one of his own patients died from the vaccine.

    McCullough also said government health and regulatory agencies are not being transparent about the vaccines’ safety.

    “I’m a doctor,” McCullough said. “I’m an internist and cardiologist. I just came from the hospital, and in my personal practice, I see patients a few days a week in the office. So believe me when I say I’ve had a woman die of the COVID-19 vaccine.”

    “She had shot number one. She had shot number two. After shot number two, she developed blood clots throughout her body. She required hospitalization and intravenous blood thinners. She was ravaged and had serious neurological damage … the next month I get a call from the Dallas coroner’s office saying she’s been found dead at home.”

    McCullough said:

    “They’re not telling us anything, they literally are blindsiding us with no transparency, and now Americans are scared to death. And because of these giant safety concerns, and the lack of transparency, we’re at an impasse … you can feel the tension in America. People are walking off the job, they don’t want to lose their jobs, but they don’t want to be hurt, or worse, die from the vaccine.”


    Carnage everywhere

  30. Fast Eddy says:

    16-Year-Old Girl Develops Vulvar Ulcers After Pfizer Vaccine, Doctors Say ‘Novel’ Side Effect Warrants Further Study



  31. Fast Eddy says:

    Scientist Whose Wife Was Injured by COVID Vaccine Tells FDA: ‘Please Do Not Give This to Kids’

    Brian Dressen, Ph.D., who is a chemist with an extensive background in researching and assessing the degree of efficacy in new technologies, told the U.S. Food and Drug Administration Pfizer’s vaccine “failed any reasonable risk-benefit calculus in connection with children.”


    Now why would he let his wife participate in this experiment?

    Maybe he was banging his 22 year old very hot secretary and thought this was a great way to get the wife out of the way?

    I don’t get these people … surely there are plenty of homeless people that they could use for these experiments… just offer them 50 bucks and a pack of smokes… maybe a donut?

  32. Fast Eddy says:

    Oh BTW — one brother took the two shots… spoke to him this morning … no mas says he…

    I said you’ll lose your passport … he says he doesn’t care

    He also said that in Toronto things are not at all normal… even with the PP if you go to restaurants or sporting events fear is pervasive…

    I also broke the news to him of our mutual friend who is suffering from Pfizer heart and passed this along https://twitter.com/Angelasfreenews/status/1451412495302807581

    I suspect many will refuse the booster… full me once and all that jazz…..

    Doesn’t matter… enough have the injection and booster … we are surely on our way to the Nightmare Scenario…

    That said – I actually don’t mind if the CEP fails and we getting face ripping … being an adrenaline junkie I don’t mind going down in a blaze of glory with the 12 gauge barrel melting down as I empty another round into a bad guys face….

    When the lights go out — the heavy chest of ammo comes out — and the bolts get inserted into the high powered rifles… too bad land mines are illegal in NZ

  33. Fast Eddy says:

    Today’s Humour

    How the COVID-19 vaccines were developed so quickly

    There’s never been this level of global collaboration amongst scientists and governments in vaccine development. This has improved the speed of its development and the launch of clinical trials around the world.

    Researchers were able to use their knowledge of other coronaviruses and vaccine development to give them a head start.

    Clinical trials were also able to recruit large numbers of volunteers faster than usual because of the worldwide interest and concern about COVID-19. Some clinical trials could be done at the same time instead of one after the other. This meant they could quickly determine whether the vaccine was effective in a short amount of time – under normal circumstance this could take many months or even years.

    Large manufacturing plants have been developed, so vaccines can be produced faster and on a larger scale than was previously possible.

    The vaccines have been developed very quickly but without taking any shortcuts in the necessary processes or compromising safety.


    Knowledge of other coronaviruses… like this one? https://www.wired.com/2003/05/feds-race-to-make-sars-vaccine/

  34. CTG says:

    If you go to Google and search for “XXX COVID deaths” where XXX is the country, you can see the graph.

    In Malaysia, many people here know that the statistics is BS. They just made it “payable” if you want to do a COVID test rather than a free on and instantly, the cases dropped from 20k+ per day to less than 8k generally.

    Now, if you look at countries in the tropics with little changes to the weather throughout the year like Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, Indonesia, there is a spike up in death and then down just as dramatic.

    Do any question
    1. There are no changes to the healthcare system
    2. Weather does not change
    3. Nothing new happened
    Why there is a large drop?
    None other than data manipulation. If you believe that something really happened in bringing down the death rates, then I have a bridge to sell to you

    • Alex says:

      “Why there is a large drop?”

      The virus burned through (a part of) the population. And/or measures to counter its spread finally paid off.

      • CTG says:

        I like your optimism and hope that you are trained in the field of biology/healthcare. This virus is actually quite harmless already unless your immunity has been compromised. In this case, whatever virus that comes your way, you will suffer badly.

        That is my whole point. I doubt you catch what I am trying to say.

        • Tim Groves says:

          It emerged from the Diamond Princess incident and elsewhere that about 80% of the population were effectively immune from getting seriously ill with COVID-19 due either to previous encounters with other coronaviruses, or due to the virus not being very dangerous to people who are not obese, diabetic or otherwise burdened with inflammatory conditions such as allergy, asthma, autoimmune diseases, coeliac disease, glomerulonephritis, hepatitis, inflammatory bowel disease, preperfusion injury and transplant rejection.

          It has been long known that inflammatory diseases compromise innate immunity. And now it is becoming increasingly clear that being injected with COVID-19 mRNA therapeutics also compromises innate immunity among other things. How seriously the immune system is damaged by the shots should become clearer in time.

        • Alex says:

          “Quite harmless” and “doesn’t kill anybody” are two different things. But let’s hope that at least you catch what you are trying to say.

  35. CTG says:

    I have written on OFW, perhaps 8-10 years ago the number of solar panels required to provider energy for a small steel foundry. I did the calculations and found out that we need probably a large area (a few square miles) of perfect condition just to operate the steel mill. There is no way that energy for a steel mill can be stored in battery packs (to be used at night). Steel mills run 24 hours because you cannot cool down the furnace at night. It is probably a known fact (sarcasm) that sun don’t shine at night, thus, the number of solar panels must double where one half is for day use and the other half is to charge the batteries. Let us not go into details on “what if it rains or snows”. It is not possible at all to operate a steel mill on renewable energy. Of course, again, being sarcastic, steel is useful in our civilized society.

    Coming back to the point of charging an EV with solar panels. I did some search. All the sites paint the best picture – total BS. “People don’t really drive much like 30 miles per day”, “You need a couple of days to fully charge but you don’t do that because your battery is not empty”, “You are not using your EV all the time” and many other sentences/paragraphs to say that it is not practical to charge using solar. You need probably 15 solar panels under ideal condition to charge daily. So, if you take the car out for a drive, you need to buy battery packs so that your solar panel can charge the battery packs and the battery packs charges your EV. This is so complicated and unnecessary.

    The main purpose of a car is to bring you from point A to B. Compare what I have mentioned above to a Model T. both have the same objective. However, the complexity of Model T is just a small fraction of Tesla. Anyone can repair a Model T (assuming someone with skills or tools) and it does not cause any problems in starting the car and drive it immediately. If a sensor in Tesla spoils, it may not even allow you to start the car. If you have the skills to repair an EV, you may not be able to do it because it is password protected and you cannot read the contents of the chips and know the software behind it. It will just be a brick. Car manufacturers now lock out unauthorized (read “cheaper”) access to their system.

    Hertz – it is just a gimmick/PR/inflate stock price. One of our dear commenters here mentioned “How does Hertz charge the customer on half charged batteries like the exorbitant gasoline charge if it is returned half tank?”. That is a serious question. With such a long charging time, it makes no sense at all for Hertz to even buy this car. All their parking bays in the airport have no charging outlets. A gasoline car can turn around in a short time, just washing and checking probably 1-2 hours max if the car is clean. EV take ages to charge. Not to mention that with blackouts (either by nature – storm or man made like blown transformer), the cars cannot be charged or rented out.

    I would not rent an EV. I need to move around quick or long distance like a holiday. I am not planning to sit and wait for hours at the charging station. If the battery runs flat, my entire holiday or work schedule is ruined. Lastly, there is just not many charging stations around especially if you are arriving at regional airports and need to drive another 70 miles out to meet a customer or relative. It is likely that customer or relative do not have a charging station for you, plenty of gas station though. That 70+70 =140 miles usage is already close to half the capacity (assuming it is an ideal 100% functional battery – not the degraded one like after 50 charging cycle). If I were to take my customer/relative out for lunch and dinner for 2-3 days, then my EV is totally useless.
    Is this identical to the energy crisis in EU? Relying on renewables and only to find out that it does not work? Relying on EV and realizing that it does not work?

    • Fast Eddy says:


      I repeat – MOREONS BUY EVs.

    • D. Stevens says:

      I might rent a Tesla if I wanted to test it out for a few days before buying one. All of my trips are <50 miles round trip. I use to travel further occasionally to visit friends/family in other states but thanks to C19 everyone is too afraid to have me visit so no more long trips. If we get special passports and not allowed beyond X miles from home then an EV might work out if one is not allowed to travel too far from home.

    • There are other (serviceable quality) brands as well, e.g. Benz now offers turbo diesel combined with phev for 60mi, that’s great if you are MIC/gov connected, as diesel for those will “be forever” available plus home charging nightly or otherwise..

  36. Fast Eddy says:

    ’30-40 mostly young men per DAY with damaged hearts’



    • People have a difficult time believing that bad outcomes are as common as they seem to be. They trust what doctors seem to tell them and what the media tells them. It is a crazy world we live in.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        If the MSM were to tell the CovIDIOTS that the chances of being maimed or killed are as high as 1 in 1000 ….they’d still get the injection.

        This is what MOREONS do.

      • geno mir says:

        Well, belief always comes with a price tag. And there iw no free lunch

  37. Fast Eddy says:

    WTF? It’s fine to take the second shot … wow


  38. Fast Eddy says:

    Yes… what are the odds…


  39. Fast Eddy says:

    ‘Unusual surge’: 5,324 new COVID cases in Singapore, 10 more deaths


    Unusual… hahahahaha…

  40. Fast Eddy says:

    The thing is…

    MOREONS think they are intelligent which makes a discussion with them very odd. They act as if they are intelligent and they can speak so you can often get caught believing you are not interacting with a MOREON…

    But then the more they speak… the more they expose their MOREONISM… and you realize … hey — this is a MOREON… why do I bother to argue with a MOREON….

    Watch as norm tries to respond to this … but don’t get caught out.

  41. Yoshua says:

    Injecting the children with the spike is the last straw. People are not going to accept harm being done to children. Even the injected adults will say: Fuck you!

  42. Fred says:

    So, 21 months of COVID and still waiting for “THE PLAN” to emerge.

    The best case scenario was Pharma Cos in cahoots with Fauci et al had bribed or brainwashed enough bureaucrats to vaxx everyone and rake in $B, but it’s clearly gone beyond that.

    With the depop scenario, if you’re in the Elite your huge $$ stash is of zero use unless you have a functioning industrial economy to spend it in. The fragility of supply chains, shortage of FF + other resources and incipient grid outages are all now obvious.

    There’s no visible way to get from here to 500M people (publicly stated objective), whilst keeping a functioning industrial civilisation, so what is THE PLAN? Some sort of Elysium scenario? CEP goes against psychology of the Elites.

    The other X factor is historically in times of resource constraints, people/societies go nuts and war ensues. Currently the US seems to be doing its best to provoke Russia and China into wars it has no chance of winning.

    BTW the simplest way to monitor the impact of jabs is to monitor all cause death rates. Generally any COVID-related data is manipulated.

    England and Wales 13.9% above 5 year average, Scotland 23.4%, Aust 6.2% at end of June (expect higher at end of Sep with recent vaxx surge).

    • Fast Eddy says:

      This is not about money…. you’d need many trillions to pay off all the people involved.. and even then — most would not play ball because what use is money when you are destroying BAU in the process..

      Putin alone is worth a reported 200B…. how do you incentive someone like that? And what about all the assets he surely owns that are getting destroyed by Covid e.g. hotels

    • Tim Groves says:

      It’s not about money. Money is like Monopoly money to the people doing the planning and they are the Bank. It might be about getting small players to give up their stakes in the game—including houses, hotels, land, utilities and railway stations. Or it might be about establishing Elysium or some other Elitetopia (I just made up that one!), or a surveillance state on steroids as in the movies The Matrix or Minority Report, or it could even be about implementing a CEP (Compassionate Extinction Plan). After all, the Reverend Jim Jones was a Democrat and a good mate of Jane Fonda!

      But whatever it is and wherever it’s going, the current stage is to get every possible individual IN THE WESTERN WORLD injected again and again and again.

      And as we are beginning to see, the result of that is a rise in all cause death rates and a significant, substantial, and even staggering decline in the overall immune function of vaxees. We pure bloods need to keep watching this unfold and remain vigilant, in splendid isolation if need be. Our spiked brethren are, by and large, going to be slow to admit they’ve been conned, cheated, defrauded, swindled, tricked, duped and hoodwinked, not to mention bamboozled.

      As Carl Sagan observed, “One of the saddest lessons in history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back. So the old bamboozles tend to persist as the new ones rise.”

      Some, like Norman, will be thinking “charlatan = Trumpy”, but that’s beside the point. Trumpy has never exerted real power over anyone. He spent his time in the White House like a king that had been castled to protect him from the constant attacks of the establishment. He was rendered powerless.

      But these injections and the system mandating, cajoling, shaming and pressurizing people into accepting them have the potential to kill the recipients or destroy their quality of life, perhaps permanently. That’s real power. They can take away your life or your health and you will never get it back.

      • Jarle says:

        ““One of the saddest lessons in history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle.”

        … and it makes me sad, so sad.

      • hillcountry says:

        In Carl Sagan’s case, it takes one to know one, unfortunately. Not to dart-board your otherwise fine post Tim, but Sagan had many characteristics of a Fauci, bamboozle indeed. Having owned and read Charles Ginenthal’s books there was a time when I might have posted one of the 5-star reviews you can find at Amazon regarding his huge tome: “Carl Sagan and Immanuel Velikovsky”, published in 1990. A couple of snips from those reviews might suffice to make the case.

        “This book is a blow-by-blow account of how Carl Sagan systematically misrepresented Velikovsky, and used the full weight of his reputation and position within the establishment to complete the work of suppression begun over two decades earlier by Harlow Shapley and Cecilia Payne-Gaposchkin. The sheer hypocrisy, dishonesty and self-regard of Sagan is brutally exposed for all the world to see.”


        “In this superbly argued deconstruction of Sagan’s lies, evasions and distortions, Charles Ginenthal demonstrates quite clearly that Sagan should rightly be remembered more as a entertainer than as a serious cosmologist. Additionally, by their unswerving support of Sagan the scientific establishment at large also demonstrated their culpability and ego-driven stupidity; this is also highlighted by Ginenthal. In the course of detailing Sagan’s dishonesty, or his schoolboyishly shoddy research, or both, Ginenthal highlights much additional evidence which tends to reinforce Velikovsky’s theories and, whilst of course not proving those theories, at the least puts them beyond the reach of the standard “debunkers” and their tactics based solely on dishonesty, of whom Sagan was the last major figure.”

        • Tim Groves says:

          I agree with you. But Sagan is so quotable.

          As someone who read four of Velikovsky’s books back to back, back in the 1970s, fascinated by the claims and connections explored within them but totally unconvinced of their validity of his theories, I thought at the time that Sagan’s attempted debunking of Velikovsky’s ideas was mean-spirited as well as scientifically unsound, notwithstanding that some of his criticisms were on the mark.

          I also wondered whether Sagan was given the chance to make Cosmos partly as a result of his defending “the Science” of the time against the threat of new paradigms gaining a foothold due to the popularity of ideas such as those expounded by Velikovsky.

          Thanks for pointing me to Ginenthal’s work.

          This link leads to a very interesting newspaper article on the life of Velikovsky, who was personally acquainted with both Freud and Einstein when Sagan was still in short trousers. Perhaps the latter was jealous.


          • hillcountry says:

            Great to read your response. Those were heady-days for catastrophism. Yes, he was quotable. I’ve intoned “billions and billions” the way he said it many times. Funny, I didn’t even know about Sagan’s role until many years later just after I ran across Dave Talbott’s Saturn book and found he was editing Aeon to which I’m pretty sure Ginenthal contributed articles. I always thought Sagan was just a bit quirky, and more entertainer than man-of-science, but that from just a few television encounters. I’ll check out that Haaretz article. Thanks

            There’s a fascinating book titled: Cataclysm! Compelling Evidence of a Cosmic Catastrophe in 9500 B.C. by D.S. Allan and J.B. Delair (neither of which I’ve been able to backtrack). The forward is by Rand Flem-Ath. It was published in the US by Bear & Co in 1997. If you haven’t run across it yet you might find some different ideas well-argued there.

    • Ed says:

      Yes, what is the plan? It is not money. If it were the central banks would have written a check for 100 billion to pharma and saved four trillion destruction in the economy.

      Nobody wins a nuclear war. There may be survivors but no winners.

      Who are the global level controllers?

      • CTG says:

        There are no winners. We are in a simulation. Nothing make sense because that is the end result of the simulation. It is those handful of people who connects the dots find that at the end the dots lead to nowhere (but perhaps collapse) and then the Higher Power just switched off the simulation. It is this “handful of aberration” that is the trouble maker, not the masses. They are the simulated subjects. The aberrants are the abnormal ones.

  43. UK is simply being paid back what it did to Europe for centuries.

    Dr Firth is not here to argue with me, but I know Tim and some others do not like me because of my scathing comments about the behaviors of UK.

    Knock off the statues of Nelson, Wellington , Arthur Harris, etc, rename Trafalgar Square , Waterloo Bridge and everything which was built for killing Europeans, and erect a statue of Robert Clive and others who killed non-Europeans who deserve to be remembered more than such people.

    Then Europe might be more willing to talk to UK.

    • Tim Groves says:

      I like you fine! Whatever gave you that impression?

      However, I did think of you while reading this article yesterday written by an American expat in Austria to one of his Austrian friends:

      I did not call you a “Hit-ler,” but was only pointing out that by reducing people to “categories” and thinking of “other” “categories” of people as “inferior” simply because they belong to some category that is explicitly or implicitly un-approved by you, is something that comes right out of the Hit-ler playbook (the whole world now knows that this is what Hit-ler advocated regarding his ideas on the “superiority” of the Ary-an “race”).

      One of the things that I was saying was that many of the views that you have expressed over the time that I have known you about “other” “ethnicities” came to have in my mind a distinctly Hit-ler type flavor vis-à-vis ideas about “inferior” categories of people. With the main difference being that you have also included some of your own fellow Austrians in the “Untermenschen” point-of-view (i.e., all those “Cretins” [according to you] living in little villages like “x”).

      However, . . . when I mentioned last night my thought that this notion of “other” categories of people as “inferior” as something that leads straight to the “concentration camp,” which in turn points in the direction of extermination, I was absolutely not referring to you as wishing on any people what for me is this “logical progression” from “idea” to “reality” (i.e., the progression from designating certain groups of people as “inferior” or defective in some way to rounding these people up and putting them in camps positioning them for extinction).


      I can see this process of “othering” leading in directions I’d rather people didn’t have to go down, as these things tend to snowball and get totally out of hand. On the other hand, we are not going to solve our problems by singing Kumbaya together.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        He perhaps makes extreme statements just to get a response or perhaps even to elicit the ‘correct’ reaction. I would not feel obliged to engage with his posts. Say what you want to say when you want to say – do not let him pressure you into posts that you would not normally make.

    • Tim Groves says:

      Something Mirror has said a few times has jelled with me. He called the UK “UK plc”. In the same way the United States is USA Inc. Many other countries are similarly businesses run for the benefit of their owners and managers. The vast vast majority of the people who live in these countries—even if they are patriotic about their country of residence— are merely staff, casual labour or diminutives. This is a big part of how the world goes around. Most people, I’m sure, don’t realize this or at best their awareness of it is hazy.

      • Kowalainen says:

        It is obvious from the ‘cultural’ command and control strategy and tactics employed.

        Problem being, most people are incapable of forming their own sound judgements. Therefore the characteristic bureaucracy.

        I.e. smart people make the most idiotic decisions. Because thinking simply and clearly is against their complications jankery.

        Just look at those fancy Swiss watches. Complicated beyond belief for no discernible reason. Now compare that with a 70’s Seiko digital watch. Simple, yet complex.

        Complexity isn’t complications.

        The most complicated things ever devices is based on the simple switch. As in digital ‘0’ and ‘1’.

      • Jarle says:

        “Most people, I’m sure, don’t realize this or at best their awareness of it is hazy.”

        Again, bamboozled …

  44. Steve Mack says:

    I enjoy the articles and commentary on this site, but in the real world it seems like businesses are doing great, stocks are doing great, everyone I know is flush with cash. The restaurants around me are always packed, home improvement projects are non-stop, the manufacturing company I work for just had record sales last quarter. My neighbor owns a restaurant and is just crushing it. Businesses seem to be raising their estimates going forward; my own company already has orders well out into the future. When is all of this supposed to fall apart?

    • It depends on what part of the world you are in and what business you are in.

      In many parts of the US, restaurants and home improvement are doing well. China is now having rolling blackouts. Europe is having trouble with very high prices, especially for imported coal and natural gas. India depends on coal, as well, and is having trouble getting enough. The problems elsewhere in the world will, at least to some extent, affect the US as well.

      The big issue now in the US is broken supply lines. This is especially affecting automobile manufacture and parts. Also, some products needed for home improvement.

      You asked about timing, presumably in the US. It would seem like by spring 2022, things might be measurably worse within the US. A new variant may be going around. Too many supply lines may be broken. International trade may develop more problems that it has now.

      Collapse doesn’t happen on an equal

    • Malcopian says:

      “my own company already has orders well out into the future.”

      The company you own or the one you work for? What is its line of business?

      What kind of area do you live in? Well-to-do, working class?

      It’s a tale of two halves. Here in London, it’s not unusual for people to pay 75% of their take-home pay on rent. I’ve seen more homeless people on the street in recent years, asking for change. This is not the country I used to live in. New buildings regularly go up, but how will we maintain all this infrastructure in the future?

      Stock markets are in Wile E Coyote land. Never heard of the trillions created by QE?

      • Steve McCormack says:

        I live in Portland, Oregon. The company I work for is what I was referring to. They are doing great. Even with a supplier issue here & there they still had record part sales last quarter, so they aren’t just doing so-so; they are doing better than ever! I see Ford just beat earnings and raised forecasts, so this also doesn’t jive with all of the supplier shortage news stories I’m always reading. Tesla is doing so great their stock was up over 100 points yesterday.
        We also have a lot of homeless people and rent seems high, but salaries also seem high. My girlfriend and I tried to eat out a couple weeks ago, and the wait time was so long at two restaurants that we just went to a low-key place and got takeout instead. It really does seem like everyone around here is richer than ever.
        I was kind of forgetting about the rest of the world with my question & comments though, so I have no idea what’s happening out there without seeing it for myself. I’m not sure what to beleive anymore. 🙂

        • The big problem now is for the poor people in poor countries. They lost their jobs in tourism and in making fancy clothes for people in Europe and the United States. These poor countries cannot support their citizens who have lost their jobs very well. Many of these countries are worried about starvation of some of their citizens. These poor countries will have an even more difficult time affording to buy fossil fuels so that their industries can operate. This will lead to more job loss.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            I don’t understand why they don’t burn cities to the ground … or at least light themselves on fire like that Tunisian did some years ago

          • Jarle says:

            “The big problem now is for the poor people in poor countries. ”

            Poor people in poor countries plundered by the west. Great, isn’t it …

        • Jimothy says:

          My experience:

          I have family in Portland and go there pretty often (once/twice a month). A lot of restaurants I know of are out of business because of supply chain issues. Sometimes it’s painted as a temporary closure while they wait and see (how they pay their rent I don’t know).

          I will concede that politically, Portland has died down quite a lot for the time being, though little seems to have changed that they were protesting about. I also know that industries there (fencing, home improvement, agriculture) are having shortages just like everyone else. The main importer of fencing for the region announced a month ago that they are no longer ordering many kinds of fencing due to price spikes from Asian manufacturers.

          It seems to me that with a lot of these crises, including climate change, there’s a vanguard class(es) of people who are hit first and notice it most, for a while. But as Gail predicted just now, eventually (several months to a year, maybe) it will be felt by everyone else. Though, most people try to deny it and try to pass it as temporary.

        • Sam says:

          I have a friend like you ; he hangs out with a lot of rich people and he believes the same as you. It’s when you parse the numbers that you start to say oh shoot! Here it comes! I suggest a read up of Dr. Lacy Hunt. Couple that with a good read on the cost to get oil out of the ground. Have you ever heard of the roaring 20’s…. People saying that it would never happen….

        • Jarle says:

          “I was kind of forgetting about the rest of the world with my question & comments though, so I have no idea what’s happening out there without seeing it for myself. I’m not sure what to beleive anymore. 🙂”

          I wonder what poor men and women in poor countries would have to say if they had a computer, internet and could write comments at OFW …

        • Malcopian says:

          It’s the calm before the storm, Steve. The stock market is massively manipulated due to the trillions in QE.

          I’ve been reading the finance and economist people online. They’re saying the financial system was collapsing at the end of 2019 (just as in 1008) and so needed to be brought offline to an extent, so the finance people can treat it. Hence the lockdowns – a ploy. Look at “Crimson Contagion” and “Event 201” – these “simulations” predicted the “pandemic” even before it started.

          When the lockdowns started, at first I was afraid, but only for about a week. I didn’t see ANY bodies in the street – nobody dying in front of me. I know nobody who has died from COVID. And yes, I have had it myself. No after effects.

          The talk is that a new digital economy and currency are being prepared. I don’t use a mobile, but most online forms require a mobile number now and will not recognise a landline format. My bank told everyone some weeks ago that we will need to give them a mobile number so that we can continue to shop online. If you can’t do that, you are given a special number to ring to “explain your circumstances”. I rang it twice, but it was always busy with a big queue. Yesterday when I logged into my online bank account yesterday, a notice came up saying I needed to supply my mobile number because I hadn’t done it!

          Digital vaccine passports are on the cards and a digitally organised social merit system, just as in China. Ernst Wolff is just one person talking about this on YouTube. Strange and scary times we are living in.

          • TIm Groves says:

            Malcopian, this demand from the bank for a mobile number is an ominous development. It appears that the net is closing on this one. I don’t know if there is a workaround for this in your country, but at least temporarily, you might be able to obtain a credit card that will allow you to shop online without hassle.

            I think it’s commendable that you haven’t gotten a smartphone yet. My wife henpecked me into getting one, although I seldom use the thing. Most of the time it just sits there spying on me and making odd beeping noises. I think it’s telling all the other devices it talks to about what an idiot and a digital illiterate I am.

            • Malcopian says:

              It certainly is ominous, Tim. I’m retired and a loner and am on my desktop PC for several hours a day. I have a landline that I rarely use at all. I prefer emails for communication. I don’t need or use a mobile.

              I dislike these titchy mobiles. My desktop gives me proper space to work and type. A mobile needs to be charged up regularly, whereas I just plug my PC in as I need it.

              These days we have various media. There is nothing wrong with a landline. It should be catered for by the online sites. A landline is not an age thing – it’s a preference. I have two aunts who are some 20 years older than me who love their mobiles. Each to their own.

              I was out at a restaurant with neighbours recently. One, a 27-year-old woman, told me she’d had her mobile snatched that same day. She’d been texting while walking along in central London, when a scooter mounted the pavement and the lad riding it made off with it. There’s all too much of this nowadays.

        • Harry says:

          I personally see the same thing.
          Most companies have good to very good work, it is an enormous problem to get not only skilled workers but workers in general anymore.
          The effort to recruit new personnel has become greater and greater in recent years.
          And even in the Corona pandemic, it has not gotten better, rather the opposite. Wherever you look, every supermarket is looking for staff. (of course, at bad conditions probably)

          But I wonder where all the workers have gone…the incredible amount of migrants we have in the last few years don’t seem to have had much of a positive effect anyway.
          I guess most of them live fully on the government’s dime.

          Wages will probably increase even in the middle of the pandemic, at least new hires will have to pay more.

          The reality we experience and the underlying social problems we regularly talk about on OFW really don’t fit together at all at the moment.

    • Fast Eddy says:


      Will at some point lead to:


      You can try the experiment yourself… apply for 10 credit cards… then go buy stuff till you max them all out…. don’t pay the bank anything…. it’s fun… for awhile

    • Jarle says:

      “I enjoy the articles and commentary on this site, but in the real world it seems like businesses are doing great, stocks are doing great, everyone I know is flush with cash. ”

      Up here (Norway) it’s like that. It goes on till it stops.

    • Alex says:

      “When is all of this supposed to fall apart?”

      It’s been falling apart at least since the 2007/08 crisis. As the saying goes, it’s difficult to make predictions, especially about future.

      But let’s not forget that the band on Titanic kept playing until the end.

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