Our fossil fuel energy predicament, including why the correct story is rarely told

There is more to the fossil fuel energy predicament than we usually hear about.

Strangely enough, a big part of the confusion regarding the nature of our energy problem comes from the fact that virtually everyone wants to hear good news, even when the news isn’t very good. We end up seeing information in the Mainstream Media mostly from the perspective of what people want to hear, rather than from the perspective of what the story really is. In this post, I explain why this situation tends to occur. I also explain why our current energy situation is starting to look more and more like an energy shortage situation that could lead to economic collapse.

This post is a write-up of a presentation I gave recently. A PDF of my talk can be found at this link. An mp4 video of my talk can be found at this link: Gail Tverberg’s Nov. 9 presentation–Our Fossil Fuel Energy Predicament.

Slide 1
Slide 2

Most people attending my talk reported that they had mostly heard about the issue on the right end of Slide 2: the problem of using too much fossil fuel and related climate change.

I think the real issue is the one shown on the left side of Slide 2. This is a physics issue. Without fossil fuels, we would find it necessary to go back to using older renewables, such as oxen or horses for plowing, burned wood and other biomass for heat, and wind-powered sail boats for international transport.

Needless to say, these older renewables are only available in tiny quantities today, if they are available at all. They wouldn’t provide many jobs other than those depending on manual labor, such as subsistence agriculture. Nuclear and modern renewables would not be available because they depend on fossil fuels for their production, maintenance and long distance transmission lines.

Slide 3
Slide 4

On Slide 4, note that M. King Hubbert was a physicist. This seems to be the academic specialty that finds holes in other people’s wishful thinking.

Another thing to note is Hubbert’s willingness to speculate about the future of nuclear energy. He seemed to believe that nuclear energy could take over, when other energy fails. Needless to say, this hasn’t happened. Today, nuclear energy comprises only 4% of the world’s total energy supply.

Slide 5

The transcript of the entire talk by Rear Admiral Hyman Rickover is worth reading. I have excerpted a few sentences from his talk. His talk took place only a year after Hubbert published his research.

Rickover clearly understood the important role that fossil fuels played in the economy. At that early date, it looked as if fossil fuels would become too expensive to extract between 2000 and 2050. A doubling of unit costs for energy may not sound like much, but it is, if a person thinks about how much poor people in poor countries spend on food and other energy products. If the price of these goods rises from 25% of their income to 50% of their income, there is not enough left over for other goods and services.

Slide 6

Regarding Slide 6, the book The Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows and others provided early computer modeling of how population growth and extraction of resources might play out. The base model seemed to indicate that economic decline would start about now. Various other scenarios were considered, including a doubling of the resources. Without very unrealistic assumptions, the economy always headed downward before 2100.

Slide 7

Another way of approaching the problem is to analyze historical civilizations that have collapsed. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov analyzed eight economies that collapsed in their book Secular Cycles. There have been many examples of economies encountering a new source of energy (conquering a new land, or developing a new way of producing more energy), growing for a time, reaching a time where growth is more limited, and finally discovering that the economy that had been built up could no longer be supported by the resources available. Both population and production of goods and services tended to crash.

We can think of the current economy, based on the use of fossil fuels, as likely following a similar path. Coal began to be used in quantity about 200 years ago, in 1820. The economy grew, as oil and natural gas production was added. We seem to have hit a period of “Stagflation,” about 1970, which is 50 years ago. The timing might be right to enter the “Crisis” period, about now.

We don’t know how long such a Crisis Period might last this time. Early economies were very different from today’s economy. They didn’t depend on electricity, international trade or international finance in the same way that today’s world economy does. It is possible (in fact, fairly likely) that the downslope might occur more rapidly this time.

Past Crisis Periods seem to feature a high level of conflict because rising population leads to a situation where there are no longer enough goods and services to go around. According to Turchin and Nefedov, some features of the Crisis Periods included increased wage disparity, collapsing or overturned governments, debt defaults, inadequate tax revenue and epidemics. Economists tell us that there is a physics reason for the rich to get richer and the poor to get poorer during Crisis Periods; in some sense, the poor get “frozen out” and the wealth rises to the top, like steam.

Slide 8
Slide 9

Slide 9 is a chart I prepared several years ago, showing the growth in the world production of fuels of various types. What little wind and solar was available at that time was included in the biofuels section at the bottom. Early biofuels consisted largely of wood and charcoal used for heat.

Slide 10

Slide 10 shows average annual increases for 10-year periods corresponding to the periods shown on Slide 9. This chart goes to 2020, so it covers a full 200-year period. Note that the increases in energy consumption shown are especially high in the 1951-1960 and 1961-1970 periods. These periods occurred after World War II when the economy was growing especially rapidly.

Slide 11

Slide 11 is similar to Slide 10, except I divide the bars into two pieces. The bottom, blue part corresponds to the amount that population grew, on average, during this ten-year period. Whatever is left over I have referred to as the amount available to increase the standard of living, shown in red. A person can see that when the overall growth in energy consumption is high, population tends to rise rapidly. With more energy, it is possible to feed and clothe larger families.

Slide 12

Slide 12 is like Slide 11, except that it is an area chart. I have also added some notes regarding what went wrong when energy consumption growth was low or negative. An early dip occurred at the time of the US Civil War. There was a very long, low period later that corresponded to the period of World War I, World War II and the Depression. The collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union occurred in 1991, so it is part of the 10-year period ended 2000. Most recently, we have encountered COVID shutdowns.

The peaks, on the other hand, tended to be good times. The period leading up to 1910 corresponded to the time of early electrification. The period after World War II was a period of growth and rebuilding. Most recently, China and its large coal resources helped pull the world economy forward. China’s coal supply stopped growing about 2013. I have written that we can no longer depend on China’s economy to pull the world economy forward. With recent rolling blackouts in China (mentioned in the next section), this is becoming more evident.

Without enough energy, the current period is beginning to look more and more like the period that included World War I and II and the Great Depression. Strange outcomes can occur when there basically are not enough resources to go around.

Slide 13
Slide 14

Slide 14 shows recent energy production. A person can see from this slide that wind and solar aren’t really ramping up very much. A major problem is caused by the fact that wind and solar are given the subsidy of “going first” and prices paid to other electricity producers are adjusted downward, to reflect the fact that their electricity is no longer needed by the grid. This approach tends to drive nuclear out of business because wholesale electricity rates tend to fall to very low levels, or become negative, when unneeded wind and solar are added. Nuclear power plants cannot easily shut down. Instead, the low prices tend to drive the nuclear power plants out of business. This is sad, because electricity from nuclear is far more stable, and thus more helpful to the grid, than electricity from wind or solar.

Slide 15

Fossil fuel producers need quite high energy prices for a variety of reasons. One of these reasons is simply because the easiest-to-extract resources were removed first. In recent years, producers have needed to move on to resources with a higher cost of extraction, thus raising their required selling prices. Wages of ordinary citizens haven’t kept up, making it hard for selling prices to rise sufficiently to cover the new higher costs.

Another issue is that fossil fuel energy prices need to cover far more than the cost of drilling the current well. Producers need to start to develop new areas to drill, years in advance of actually getting production from those sites. They need extra funds to work on these new sites.

Also, oil companies, especially, have historically paid high taxes. Besides regular income taxes, oil companies pay state taxes and royalty taxes. These taxes are a way of passing the “surplus energy” that is produced back to the rest of the economy, in the form of taxes. This is exactly the opposite of wind and solar that need subsidies of many kinds, especially the subsidy of “going first,” that drives other electricity providers out of business.

Prices for oil, coal and natural gas have been far lower than producers need, for a long time. The COVID shutdowns in 2020 made the problem worse. Now, with producers quitting at the same time the economy is trying to reopen, it is not surprising that some prices are spiking.

Slide 16

Most local US papers don’t tell much about world energy prices, but these are increasingly becoming a big problem. Natural gas is expensive to ship and store, so prices vary greatly around the world. US natural gas prices have roughly doubled from a year ago, but this is a far lower increase than many other parts of the world are experiencing. In fact, the bills that most US natural gas residential customers will receive will increase by far less than 100% because at the historic low price, over half of the price for residential service is distribution expenses, and such expenses don’t change very much.

Slide 17

Slide 17 shows another way of looking at data that is similar to that in Slide 14. This slide shows amounts on a per capita basis, with groupings I have chosen. I think of coal and oil as being pretty much the only energy resources that can “stand on their own.” The recent peak year for combined coal and oil, on a per capita basis, was 2008.

Natural gas, nuclear, and hydroelectric were the first add-ons. If a person looks closely, it can be seen that the growth rate of this group has slowed, at least in part because of the pricing problems caused by wind and solar.

The “green” sources at the bottom are growing, but from a very low base. The main reason for their growth is the subsidies they receive. If fossil fuels falter in any major way, it will adversely affect the growth of wind and solar. Already, there are articles about supply chain problems for the big wind turbines. Any cutback in subsidies is also harmful to their production.

Slide 18

US papers don’t tell us much about these problems, but they are getting to be very serious problems in other parts of the world. The countries with the biggest problems are the ones trying to import natural gas or coal. If an exporting country finds its own production falling short, it is likely to make certain that its own citizens are adequately supplied first, before providing exports to others. Thus, importing countries may find very high prices, or supplies simply not available.

Slide 19
Slide 20

This slide got a lot of laughs. The university does have some sort of agricultural plot, but teaching subsistence farming is not its goal.

Slide 21
Slide 22
Slide 23
Slide 24

My point about “scientists who are not pressured by the need for research grants or acceptance of written papers are the ones trying to tell the whole truth” got quite a few laughs. As a practical matter, this means that retired scientists tend to be disproportionately involved in trying to discern the truth.

With the military understanding the need to work around energy limits, one change has been to move away from preparation for “hot wars” to more interest in biological weapons, such as viruses. Thus, governments of many countries, including the United States, Canada, France, Italy, Australia and China, have funded research on making viruses more virulent. The vaccine-making industry also supported this effort because it might enhance the industry’s ability to make and sell more vaccines. It was believed that there might even be new techniques that would develop from this new technology that would increase the overall revenue generated by the healthcare industry.

Questions came up, both during the talk and later, about what other changes have taken place because of the need for much of the audience to hear a story with a happily ever after ending, and because of the known likely decline of the economy for physics reasons. Clearly one thing that happens is successful entrepreneurs, such as Elon Musk, aim their production in areas where subsidies will be available. With fossil fuel production not making money, fossil fuel producers are even willing to undertake renewable projects if subsidies seem to be high enough. The issue isn’t really, “What is sustainable?” It is much more, “Where will the profits be, given where subsidies will be, and what people are being taught about how to perceive today’s problems?”

Slide 25
Slide 26
Slide 27
Slide 28

In fact, what has been happening in recent years is that a great deal of debt has been added to the world economy. Mostly, this added debt seems to be creating added inflation. It definitely is not leading to the rapid extraction of a great deal more fossil fuels, which is what really would allow the production of more goods and services. If inflation leads to higher interest rates, this, by itself, could destabilize the financial system.

Slide 29

I tried to explain, as I have in the past, how a self-organizing economy works. New citizens are born, and old ones pass away. New businesses are formed, and they add new products, keeping in mind what products citizens want and can afford. Governments add laws and taxes, as situations change. Energy is needed at every step in production, so availability of inexpensive energy is important in the operation of the economy, as well. There are equivalences, such as employees tend also to be customers. If the wages of employees are high, they can afford to buy many goods and services; if wages are low, employees will be very restricted in what they can afford.

In some sense, the economy is hollow inside, because the economy will stop manufacturing unneeded products. If an economy starts making cars, for example, it will phase out products associated with transportation using horse and buggy.

Slide 30

A self-organizing economy clearly does not operate in the simple way economists seem to model the economy. Low prices can be just as big a problem as high prices, for example.

Another issue is that the energy needs of an economy seem to depend on its population and how far it has already been built up. For example, roads, bridges, water distribution pipelines and electricity transmission infrastructure must all be maintained, even if the population falls. We know humans need something like 2000 calories a day of food. Economies seem to have a similar constant need for energy, based on both the number of people in the economy and the amount of infrastructure that has been built up. There is no way to cut back very much, without the economy collapsing.

Slide 31

I am not exactly certain when the first discussion of the economy as a dissipative structure (self-organizing system powered by energy) started. When I prepared this slide, I was thinking that perhaps it was in 1996, when Yoshinori Shizoawa wrote a paper called Economy as a Dissipative Structure. However, when I did a search today, I encountered an earlier paper by Robert Ayres, written in 1988, also discussing the economy as a dissipative structure. So, the idea has been around for a very long time. But getting ideas from one part of academia to other parts of academia seems to be a very slow process.

Debt cannot grow indefinitely, either, because there needs to be a way for it to be paid back in a way that produces real goods and services. Without adequate energy supplies, it becomes impossible to produce the goods and services that consumers need.

Slide 32

Attendees asked about earlier posts that might be helpful in understanding our current predicament. This is the list I provided:

Humans Left Sustainability Behind as Hunter Gatherers  – Dec. 2, 2020
How the World’s Energy Problem Has Been Hidden – June 21, 2021
Energy Is the Economy; Shrinkage in Energy Supply Leads to Conflict – Nov. 9, 2020
Why a Great Reset Based on Green Energy Isn’t Possible – July 17, 2020
The “Wind and Solar Will Save Us” Delusion – Jan. 30, 2017

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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4,650 Responses to Our fossil fuel energy predicament, including why the correct story is rarely told

  1. Bobby says:

    This is the pathway to back to sanity lead by honest scientific debate and positive causes of action


  2. Fast Eddy says:

    Turning and turning in the widening gyre
    The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
    Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
    Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
    The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
    The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
    The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity.



  3. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Wow. add this to the charts
    Mexico’s third-richest billionaire, Ricardo Salinas Pliego, has advised investors to “buy bitcoin right now.” He explained that the U.S. is “looking more and more like any other irresponsible third world country.”

    Ricardo Salinas Pliego on US Economy and Bitcoin
    Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego commented on the U.S. economy and bitcoin Wednesday. He is the founder and chairman of Grupo Salinas, a group of companies with interests in telecommunications, media, financial services, and retail stores. According to Forbes’ list of billionaires, his net worth is currently $14.2 billion.

    Salinas tweeted a weekly chart of the total value of the Federal Reserve’s assets (less eliminations from consolidation), which was updated on Nov. 18. It shows total assets of more than 8.67 trillion dollars. The billionaire tweeted:

    Good old USA is looking more and more like any other irresponsible third world country…wow…look at the scale of fake money creation. Buy bitcoin right now.
    In June, he announced plans for his bank to accept bitcoin. “I recommend the use of bitcoin, and me and my bank are working to be the first bank in Mexico to accept bitcoin,” he tweeted.

    On the subject of bitcoin vs. gold, he recommended putting money in bitcoin. “Bitcoin is the new gold,” he said in June, adding that it is “much more portable.” He noted that transporting bitcoin “is so much easier” than having gold bars in your pockets.

    In August, the third-richest man in Mexico tweeted:

    I think bitcoin has a great future and it will change the world…. we will see


  4. jj says:

    My rather crude understanding of Bosches premise is that variants other than the one selected by the vaccine are produced in the body via natural selection. The injections however do not stop infection or transmission. Since infection is not prevented why would the injections create variants? Its not a leaky vaccine, nothing is actually captured in the vessel so there is no pressure to create variants? Is this incorrect?

    • Ed says:

      Since the vax is not sterilizing the virus stays in the body reproducing and mutating. If a random mutation is not beat down by the vax then it has a field day and reproduces to high viral load in the host. Some of it sheds out of the host by cough, sneeze, urine feces. As to virulence and contagiousness there is no driving force for more or less.The random mutations some times will make more sometimes will make less sometimes the same. But if we keep throwing the dice we will eventually get worse.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      The vaccines kill the dominant weaker elements … and the more virulent elements survive and replicate…

      Let’s pull out the analogy box…

      Let’s say OFW is overrun by DelusiSTANIS… think norm dunc mike x billions…. these are feeble… weakling…. Fauci injects OFW with his leaky vaccine … it kills the DelusiSTANIS…

      But it has zero impact on the Core… because the Core is superior to the DelusiSTANIS in every way…. smarter faster stronger etc….

      Eventually all that remains is the Core… we breed and the traits that make us awesome spread … then Fauci hits us with a booster… that eliminates the weaker members of the Core….

      Those that remain breed … then Fauci strikes again … and on and on we go… getting stronger faster and smarter with each booster.

      Eventually all that remains is Fast Eddy and his harem of VERY hot women….

      And we all know that Fast Eddy despises humans…. if you think Fast Eddy is a handful know … what till you see his great great great great great great x 1,000,000,000 grandson….

      Holy moly! He’ll be exploding with vitality and power … and heaven help the humans….

  5. jj says:

    Botswana origin is surprising if true. I have my doubts. And the tech to map the genome is right there in downtown Botswanna next to the 7-11?

    No matter. A new era has been entered and there is no going back. Any country or millonaire can do gain of function research. A virus needs no delivery system. It can be released in any backwater place and exponential function will deliver it to all corners of the globe. If we eradicate covid someone will cook up somthing new with gain of function.

    If Omnivore was lab created perhaps the lab director and the financier are having a bit of champagne right now. They named it. First one to be really named. High five. Omicron. My child.

  6. jj says:

    Omicron. Isnt that cute! Transformerish. Is it too late to get figurines out for Christmas? Im telling you this could be bigger than baby Yoda.

    You give things names to identify them when there is more than one. It would seem that the practice of giving hurricanes names now has been applied to new virus variants. This means there are expectations of a continuation of emerging viruses and the language is being created that is appropriate for that continuation.

  7. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Europe’s latest wave of Covid authoritarianism has set a dangerous new precedent.

    “The absence of moral scruple in pursuit of what is thought to be a public good is the first symptom of totalitarianism… The rest of us should look on and note how easily liberal democracy can be subverted by fear.”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “From blocking websites to forcing companies to share user data, governments – including democracies – are increasingly resorting to “authoritarian” methods to control the internet, tech experts warned on Thursday…

      “Those threats are coming from the Western world too, said Javier Pallero, policy director of advocacy group Access Now. “A lot of democratic governments are now acting as authoritarians… it’s not just the Russias and Chinas of the world,” he added.”


    • Xabier says:

      As the Bolsheviks used to say:

      The end justifies the means’.


      ‘But if you steal,imprison,and execute without trial, doesn’t that make you mere criminals? Not at all, comrade: because we are doing all those things for the good of humanity!’ Trotsky

      We can’t create Homo Sapiens 2.0 and heal the planet by adhering to legacy morality and laws, can we?

  8. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Turkey descends into chaos: Protests, 20% inflation, and a plea to ‘eat less meat’ to tackle soaring prices…

    “While protests rage in parts of Turkey, the Turkish government has urged its citizens to go vegetarian.”


  9. Harry McGibbs says:

    “China urged to be ‘vigilant’ to rising grain prices in battle for food security.

    “China should boost policy support, monitor global grain prices and diversify imports to maintain food security, state media say. Rising food prices are driving inflation concerns and putting average people under more economic pressure, analysts say.”


  10. Genomir says:

    To be honest i am having tons of fun.
    Just a brief glimpse – we skipped NU and XI and went directly to OMICRON. Did we really went with MORONIC, i mean OMICRON? I am getting confused. Somebody send help!

  11. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Gas crisis: Europe could tap into emergency supplies as stocks run low, say experts.

    “Sustained cold weather like the Beast from the East in 2018 could see Europe’s gas storage completely emptied by February, analysts say.”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “European gas shortage will push up fertiliser costs and food prices… Freezing in the dark while hungry does not make happy voters…

      “The conundrum of cutting carbon emissions while maintaining food production has not been solved.”


      • Harry McGibbs says:

        “[Irish] hauliers threaten to block motorways and ports in further protest.
        “Hauliers who brought traffic in Dublin to a standstill this week in a protest over fuel prices have threatened to hold a much bigger demonstration in early December if no action is taken by the Government.”


      • The regenerative ag/permaculturalists say that you can build soil carbon (remove CO2 from atm) with a mixture of annuals, perrenials (food & wood) and livestock (cows pigs chicken) combined with a vertically integrated retailing of some portion of production after suppling food & energy needs of those on farm – all without fertilizer. Their line is that overall farm profits increase with a highly managed resilient ecosystem approach than with industrial style fossil fuel driven green revolution/highly optimized monoculture agriculture.

        Someone posted this or a link like this several weeks ago

        Lots of nice talk and a very impressive visual transformation and qualitative verbal description but unfortunately not enough hard data to evaluate true energetic potential; would like to know what kind of net production (food & energy calories/acre/yr) are sustainable from such a system.

        Of course maximizing net profit for a small number of regenerative farms by selling premium products works today when there is an adequate market for the high priced products, but they still rely on fossil fuel industrial supplied tools, food processing & distribution systems.

        Ultimately could be a path to downsizing to a lower energy/capita type of non-migratory hunter/gatherer level civilization for a much reduced population if the ecological information base/methodology could be preserved and sufficient energy devoted to rudimentary tools industry (Reworking recycled metals (Fe, Al) and embracing the Carbon Cycle (maybe some bioplastics etc.) rather than seeing Carbon as the enemy)

        Need some hard data and a good systems dynamic modeler (on par with Meadows et al) to figure out the possible maximum population that could be supported. Looks like I should have taken the Systems Dynamic curriculum under Odum/Best instead of the traditional Water Resources/Water & Wastewater Engineering coursework and maybe then I could answer that question. Anyone know a good Systems Dynamics Modeler that has looked at regenerative farming?

        (and no still doesn’t address the Spent Fuel Pond dilemma)

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Doesn’t address the armed gangs that will be roaming the land raping murdering and pillaging …

          While you are reading up on permie culture I’d recommend you also brush up on your history… farmers did rather poorly when raiders were on the loose ….

          We’d hate for you to confuse what is coming the Sunday Farmers Market….

          Just listening to Great Courses Mongol Empire… those boys did some wicked things … mass rape… mass murder … etc etc etc… one incident stands out … one fellow who opposed them and pissed them off… was tied to a stake … smeared with fat… flies laid their eggs in the fat then the maggots ate him … very slowly of course… it took nearly a month…

          You are living in a very dangerous dream world if you think you will be allowed to tend your garden in peace…. it is almost impossible to defend a farm — they’ll put a bullet through your head from 300 metres away while you are pulling weeds….

          You won’t last a week. You are wasting your time

        • MM says:

          What? Read a book about systems modelling? For permaculture ? I hope you have a sweet and soft arm chair to read that book.

          Actually to make this post a bit more friendly let me send you over to George Mobus who has written “The Books” about system theory and the like:

    • hope you weren’t blown off your island in last night’s gale Harry

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        Thanks, Norman. It was actually a little anti-climactic here. Arwen caused most of her mischief on the other side of Scotland, fortunately.

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “European gas shortage will push up fertiliser costs and food prices… Freezing in the dark while hungry does not make happy voters…

      “The conundrum of cutting carbon emissions while maintaining food production has not been solved.”


  12. Harry McGibbs says:

    “A major crisis is coming to a head on pig farms up and down the UK. It’s a crisis that farmers warned us about, and now it’s happening.

    “Their worst nightmares are coming to pass; the mass culling of healthy animals because there simply aren’t enough butchers to process them and get them off farms.”


  13. Michael Le Merchant says:


  14. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Boris Johnson’s tree planting strategy ‘in flames’, as UK spends six times more on wood burning power station.

    “Ministers have been accused of lacking a “joined up strategy” on woodlands, as one government department spends six times more on a timber burning power station than another spends on tree planting.”


  15. Michael Le Merchant says:

    “I believe we are facing an evil that has no equal in human history”

    Your humble Moscow correspondent shares his thoughts about COVID Russia with The Unz Review

    • Replenish says:

      Thanks for the latest confirmation of Covid: The Great Reset aka 4th Industrial Revolution.

      • there is not, and will be no .reset

        there was only one industrial revolution—all steps of industrial development, large or small, simple or complex, ride on the back of that.

        the computer revolution?—take a typical one, old or new:

        list the components inside early computers, or the latest hand held ones

        It is not possible to access the materials that make up those components without the technologies of mining and resource extraction.

        And it isn’t possible to undertake that extraction without the processes developed by the (only) industrial revolution in the 1700s.
        Since that time, human progress has been a series of incremental steps, each climbing on the previous one, and laying the firm base for whoever figures out the next one.
        The ‘Great Reset?’

        Reset what exactly? Money? Politics? Employment? Food/Energy resources? Population?

        There really isn’t much more to our way of life than that short list I’ve offered there.

        Choose one: Money.
        Reset the money supply–a popular fantasy. To what exactly?

        We still have to buy ‘stuff’ in order to live. So if we don’t earn enough to buy enough ‘stuff’ to live, we die. Simple as that. Gold coins or cowrie shells, doesn’t matter what money is called. It’s what you do with it that matters.
        Calling it something else, and expecting it to be something else reveals a refusal to think.

        Resetting politics and expecting politicians to be ‘different’ is ludicrous.

        Demanding ‘reset’ and expecting cheap surplus energy to be made available to us again

        Demanding/expecting ‘reset’ and expecting your life to improve as a result is pure fantasy.

        • Replenish says:

          Thanks for the reality check Norman! I don’t expect the attempts at reset to succeed based on what I learn from the elders at OFW. I say namaste to the resetters and expect that the future is bleak for IC and my standard of living. I look forward to abiding the laws of nature, fine tuning instincts and exercising will to power to resist subjugation by any means necessary as the wicker man burns and collapses. Be stout of heart and with good cheer my friend!

  16. Azure Kingfisher says:

    Botswanan Covid Task Force: New Variant Only Found in Vaccinated Individuals

    “On November 25, the Botswanan COVID-19 Task Force reported four new cases of the COVID variant B.1.1.529. All four cases were detected in travelers through routine PCR testing. They noted something interesting about all four cases:

    “‘The preliminary report revealed that all four had been fully vaccinated for COVID-19.’

    “Yes, all four individuals with detectable cases of B.1.1.529 were fully vaccinated. There have been numerous breakthrough cases of COVID-19 and the Delta variant among the vaccinated. Now, it appears that those who have taken the vaccine may be more susceptible to transmission as this new variant is associated with increased antibody resistance.
    The report states that they are uncertain if the currently available vaccinations will prevent transmission and suggests “non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as masks, social distancing, and avoiding unnecessary travel. Governments now have a new reason to reimplement harsh restrictions. The upcoming days and weeks should shine a light on what they plan to do to ‘stop the spread’ since the vaccine is not as ‘safe and effective’ as previously claimed.”


  17. Yoshua says:

    The moronic spike isn’t natural, it has dehumanised, instead of adapting to humans. The Pfizer and Moderna GMO vaccines seems to caused the mutations.


  18. Hubbs says:

    As I said weeks ago, think of this “nu” variant as continuation of a medical PONZI, whereby the PTB need to recruit new injectees to perpetuate the “pandemic.” This also requires suppression of adverse effects from the “vaccines” on the VAERS system, just like delays in promised payouts in the financial PONZI scheme have to be extensions of the original con so people don’t catch on that there is no profit in the scam. So they have to lie about VAERS just as the PONZI lies about the promised returns on the investment. Eventually, the money runs out, just in the same way natural immunity would catch up to the COVID if they didn’t perpetuate it with the fear mongering of new variants, and spreading the “disease” via perpetual injections of the spike proteins- the real disease causer. Any “disease” caused by the novel virus/spike protein via human to human infection because of insufficient mask wearing practices or inadequate “vaccinations” has to be conflated with the toxicity of the spike protein being injected.
    Now that the variants are all over the world, it is a simple matter to introduce the latest variant du jour, even in a remote place like Botswana where no one can really verify the true “origin,” and immediately after that variant is “confirmed” by genetic sequencing, introduce it throughout the world. No one will be the wiser about its spread. Of course, it does not matter if the new “nu” virus is less lethal or even more “transmissible” than the others. All that matters is that its gene sequence markers can be identified and confirmed as “different.” And the labs have had plenty of time and opportunity to have a whole catalog of variants to select. These mutations of course have emerged in a way quite inconsistent with natural evolutionary incremental genetic drift.

    It is quite convenient that 32 of the 50 mutations are on the spike protein itself, the only part that matters, and which has been extensively studied as evidenced by applications for gene sequence patents (unsuccessfully) for the past 20 years. I think Dr David Martin ( not in field of biology) suggested this months earlier. Where did this go? Was it false or just suppressed?


    I suspect that this original “Wuhan” variant spike protein was not as lethal as the Fauci/Gates had hoped, and are scrambling to keep this hoax going. It is a blunt tool (not a surgical strike to depopulate the earth as some suggest) like climate change, green energy, illegal alien invasion, local wars, degradation of our educational system, family unit disintegration through work disincentives/UBI for central father figures and communities, debauchment of the currency via the FED, media disinformation, political control, gun control, etc. –all these combined to destabilize society to the point that it will be too fractured to resist eventual centralized takeover.

    In fact, I have wondered whether gun control is a reverse psychology psy-op whereby they are panicking people into buying MORE guns, so that when any civil war that breaks out, it will be even more deadly.

    And being a “black sheeped” physician myself from years ago in KY and NC, I know all too well the kind of slime like Fauci is. Half the physicians are lying, insecure cowards, and how doctors on these rogue agency state medical boards are selected by the state governors and will threaten their own colleagues if they do not toe the medical narrative. They are so righteous. And they usually are those who are not in mainstream medical specialties. Presidents of medical schools, dermatology, pathology, public health, physical medicine and rehabilitation, PSYCHIATRY, etc.

    State Medical Boards have sovereign immunity from malfeasance. And some lawyers, who are also scum, will take positions with these boards to cut their teeth on becoming Plaintiff Med-Mal trial lawyers when they leave ( In KY it was board attorney Thomas Wesley Faulkner JD Louisville Courier-Journal Article which I still have) , or in the case of hearing officers /administrative law judges, always agreeing with the Medical Boards in actions against physicians to insure that they will be “requested” to sit in on cases when a scapegoat is needed for public relations, and ALJ Martin Glazer JD. (Motion by co-defendant Juan Ascuncion MD, a pathological liar’s, counsel to recuse Glazer because he “had a long history of never disagreeing with the Board.”)

    • Xabier says:

      One notices that professors of Public Health have been prominent in pushing the scam, no doubt they have never come near a patient ever since their first degree.

  19. Student says:

    This is the reason why WHO has decided to drop ‘NU’ (and also ‘XI’) as possible official names for this new variant and decided to name it ‘OMICRON’.


  20. Student says:

    I’m sorry to say that his moustaches are not reassuring, but I admit that is not a rational consideration.
    What is rational is probably this question: why should we go on vaccinating people if every scientist admits that vaccines, for a mutating virus, creates the conditions for more powerful variants?

    ‘Further mutations of the Covid-19 virus could spawn a strain as contagious as Delta and as deadly as the Ebola virus. (…) He stressed the importance of not giving the virus a chance to mutate any further. To achieve this, it may be necessary to keep “vaccinating the world for years” to come, Montgomery said.’



    • D. Stevens says:

      Red Queen is busy with shale oil and now she has to get to work on vaccines? I’m sure it will be fine, everything always turns out fine, until it doesn’t.

  21. machival66 says:

    Vax required for assisted suicide in Germany 🙂 https://www.rt.com/news/541149-euthanasia-germany-vaccinated-only/

  22. MM says:

    I have looked up the new variant in gisaid:
    “The variant” is The 21K red dot at the bottom right and two things are amazing:
    The evolutionary path is being shown as a red line, you cannot zoom in but it shows that the”previous” variant is very very far away.
    Possibly it is either “a new release” (Canada Leak?) or it has been circulating (probably in Africa) for quite a long time unnnoticed. In case of b a lot of people might already be immune to it (Africa).
    In any case it is not so far away from the Wuhan strain that natural immunity to the Wuhan strain will defeat it (just my 2 ct).
    In any case:
    a) The vaccines (even the booster) is the Wuhan strain. That does no longer exist, so why vaccinate this? Does anyone fear GVDB here from mixes of vaccines? What is the exit strategy with Variants and vaccine code? Probably they are in effect trying to promote a “newer version of the vaccine” sigh.
    b) The delta Variant has breeded much more variants and why the heck should the 21K Variant make any difference? What the heck even does make any difference to the gazillion variants?
    In the text description below you can read that the depiction is only a small excerpt of many many more variants.
    c) It still is not clear how mch of the variants is gerenated by a software assemby of fragments…
    d) Most troubling is, that the variant has been moved around by vaccinated people. The one and only zero covid exit strategy for that is ban all travel, vaccinated or not…

    I see a new ramp up of framing a “medical emergency” when we all know that we are in any emergency possible but not in a medical one (*cough*)
    Also political restistance has been growing quite a bit in the last month…

    • Xabier says:

      Just like the original ‘pandemic’ outbreak, the appearance of B(S)11529 is most convenient in many respects.

      Resistance is growing; even those who were vaxxed won’t buy in so readily to the need for perpetual boosters; a growing rebellion against masks (certainly here in the UK) and lock-downs; more awareness of just how much Big Pharma, and the rich in general, are profiting from this; and so on.

      They’ve exhausted the Deadly Delta meme, it’s been milked to death, and need a new one urgently.

      Some more dangerous, vaxx-defying, Thing Out Of Africa answers that need perfectly.

      • MM says:

        Let me say a word about BigPharma here:
        People claim:” They do it for the profits only” “See how much they earn from the vaccines”
        Sorry guys, the global central banks have injected 8 trillion Dollars of unsecured debt against future energy usage.
        Who in this world would ever worry about some billions earned here or there ? You think the stock market reflects any earnings at all?
        “A product” is no longer required to reap huge short term personal gains for the managerial class. The economy runs around data and control (of resource flows).
        The Vaccine is not about the vials sold, it is about something else, You name it…

        • Rodster says:

          “Who in this world would ever worry about some billions earned here or there ?”

          I fail to understand the logic here? Big Pharma only cares about Big Pharma and not what the CB’s of the world have invested into the economies. If I make a million or 100 million, I don’t care what Big Pharma has made or the CB’s for that matter.

          Greed is personal, as long as you make it, you don’t care about what the others have done.

          • MM says:

            Greedy people are nothing more than
            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Useful_idiot s
            People without any sensemaking besides greed.
            The Essence of the economy is data and control, I repeat it plain simple. It is no longer about money.
            Money can be created for whatever seems necessary, Be it police force, army, digital Id , digital money, social Credit, Green Deals , Infrastructure what have you.

            The amount of “usable” stuff is running out and the amount of waste is accumulating fast. That needs some management and real managers actually know that very well.
            Only: A helluva people need to be trained to be managed.

          • Duncan Idaho says:

            Ivermectin to Curb West Nile Virus? Not Such a Bird-Brained Idea
            — Pilot study suggests alternative to insecticides for vector control

            To be fair, I’m posting some good Ivermectin news.

            True, it is science based, and has nothing to do with the delusions posted, but still—-

            • jj says:

              Those intubated and in a casket can have some consolation that they are not delusional like the 1.3 billion humans that are still alive in India.

      • Jeremy says:

        Yes, Out Of Africa, where all things are quiet on the C0V!D front. Can’t have that. Let’s flip that reality inside out, and make Africa the source of the deadliest strain yet.

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