2022: Energy limits are likely to push the world economy into recession

In my view, there are three ways a growing economy can be sustained:

  1. With a growing supply of cheap-to-produce energy products, matched to the economy’s energy needs.
  2. With growing debt and other indirect promises of future goods and services, such as rising asset prices.
  3. With growing complexity, such as greater mechanization of processes and supply lines that extend around the world.

All three of these approaches are reaching limits. The empty shelves some of us have been seeing recently are testimony to the fact that complexity is reaching a limit. And the growth in debt looks increasingly like a bubble that can easily be popped, perhaps by rising interest rates.

In my view, the first item listed is critical at this time: Is the supply of cheap-to-produce energy products growing fast enough to keep the world economy operating and the debt bubble inflated? My analysis suggests that it is not. There are two parts to this problem:

[a] The cost of producing fossil fuels and delivering them to where they are needed is rising rapidly because of the effects of depletion. This higher cost cannot be passed on to customers, without causing recession. Politicians will act to keep prices low for the benefit of consumers. Ultimately, these low prices will lead to falling production because of inadequate reinvestment to offset depletion.

[b] Non-fossil fuel energy products are not living up to the expectations of their developers. They are not available when they are needed, where they are needed, at a low enough cost for customers. Electricity prices don’t rise high enough to cover their true cost of production. Subsidies for wind and solar tend to drive nuclear electricity out of business, leaving an electricity situation that is worse, rather than better. Rolling blackouts can be expected to become an increasing problem.

In this post, I will explore the energy-related issues that are contributing to the recessionary trends that the world economy is facing, starting later in 2022.

[1] World oil supplies are unlikely to rise very rapidly in 2022 because of depletion and inadequate reinvestment. Even if oil prices rise higher in the first part of 2022, this action cannot offset years of underinvestment.

Figure 1. Crude oil and liquids production quantities through 2020 based on EIA data. “IEA Estimate” adds IEA indicated increases in 2021 and 2022 to historical EIA liquids estimates. Tverberg Estimate relates to crude oil production.

The IEA, in its Oil Market Report, December 2021, forecasts a 6.4-million-barrel increase in world oil production in 2022 over 2021. Indications through September of 2021 strongly suggest that there was only a small rebound (about 1 million bpd) in the world’s oil production in 2021 compared to 2020. In my view, the IEA’s view that liquids production will increase by a huge 6.4 million barrels a day between 2021 and 2022 defies common sense.

The basic reason why oil production is low is because oil prices have been too low for producers since about 2012. Companies have had to cut back on developing new fields in higher cost areas because oil prices have not been high enough to justify such investments. For example, producers from shale formations could add new wells outside the rapidly depleting “core” regions if the oil price were much higher, perhaps $120 to $150 per barrel. But US WTI oil prices averaged only $57 per barrel in 2019, $39 per barrel in 2020, and $68 per barrel in 2021, so this new investment has not been started.

Recently, oil prices have been over $80 per barrel, but even this is considered too high by politicians. For example, countries are releasing oil from their strategic oil reserves to try to force oil prices down. The reason why politicians are interested in low oil prices is because if the price of oil rises, both the price of food and the cost of commuting are likely to rise, since oil is used in farming and in commuting. Inflation is likely to become a problem, making citizens unhappy. Wages will go less far, and politicians who allow high oil prices will be voted out of office.

[2] Natural gas production can be expected to rise by 1.6% in 2022, but this small increase will not be enough to meet the needs of the world economy.

Figure 2. Natural gas production though 2020 based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. For 2020 and 2021, Tverberg estimates reflect increases similar to IEA indications, so only one indication is shown.

With natural gas production growing at a little less than 2% per year, a major issue is that there is not enough natural gas to “go around.” Natural gas is the smallest of the fossil fuels in quantity. We are depending on its growth to solve many problems, simultaneously:

  • To increase natural gas imports for countries whose own production is declining
  • To provide quick relief from inadequate production by wind turbines and solar panels, whenever such relief is needed
  • To offset declining coal consumption related to a combination of issues (depletion, high pollution, climate change concerns)
  • To help increase world electricity supply, as transportation and other processes are gradually electrified

Furthermore, the rate at which natural gas supply increases cannot easily be speeded up because (a) the development of new fields, (b) the development of transportation structures (pipeline or Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) ships), and (c) the development of storage facilities all require major upfront expenditures. All of these must be planned years in advance. They require huge amounts of resources of many kinds. The selling price of natural gas must be high enough to cover all of the resource and labor costs. For those familiar with the concept of Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI), the basic problem is that the delivered EROEI falls too low when all of the many parts of the system are considered.

Storage is extremely important for natural gas because fluctuations tend to occur in the quantity of natural gas the overall system requires. For example, if stored natural gas is available, it can be used when wind turbines are not producing enough electricity. Also, a huge amount of energy is needed in winter to keep homes warm and to keep the lights on. If sufficient natural gas can be stored for months at a time, it can help provide this additional energy.

As a gas, natural gas is difficult to store. In practice, underground caverns are used for storage, assuming caverns of the right type are available. Trying to build storage, if such caverns are not available, is almost certainly an expensive undertaking. In theory, importing natural gas by pipeline or LNG can transfer the storage problem to LNG producers. This is not a satisfactory solution, however. Without adequate storage available to sellers, this means that natural gas can be extracted for only part of the year and LNG ships can only be used for part of the year. As a result, return on investment is likely to be poor.

Now, in 2022, we are hitting the issue of very slowly rising natural gas production head-on in many parts of the world. Countries that import natural gas without long-term contracts are facing spiking prices. Countries in Europe and Asia are especially affected. The United States has mostly been isolated from the spiking prices thanks to producing its own natural gas. Also, only a small portion of the natural gas produced by the US is exported (9% in 2020).

The reason for the small export percentage is because shipping natural gas as LNG tends to be very expensive. Long-distance LNG shipping only makes economic sense if there is a several dollar (or more) price differential between the buyer’s price and the seller’s costs that can be used to cover the high transport costs.

We now seem to be reaching a period of spiking natural gas prices, especially for countries importing natural gas without long-term contracts. If natural gas prices rise, this will tend to make electricity prices rise because natural gas is often burned to produce electricity. Products made with high-priced electricity will be less competitive in a world market. Individual citizens will become unhappy with their high cost of heat and light.

High natural gas prices can have very adverse consequences. In areas with high prices, products made using natural gas as a raw material will tend to be squeezed out. One such product is urea, used as a nitrogen fertilizer. With less nitrogen fertilizer available, food production is likely to fall. If food prices rise in response to short supply, consumers will tend to reduce discretionary spending to ensure that there are sufficient funds for food. A reduction in discretionary spending is one way recession starts.

Inadequate growth in world natural gas production can be expected to hit poor countries especially hard. For example, a recent article mentions LNG suppliers backing out of planned deliveries of LNG to Pakistan, given the high prices available elsewhere. Another article indicates that Kosovo, a poor country in Europe, is experiencing rolling blackouts. Eventually, if natural gas available for export remains limited in supply, electricity blackouts can be expected to spread more widely, to less poor parts of Europe and around the world.

[3] World coal production can be expected to decline, further pushing the world economy toward recession.

Figure 3 shows my estimate for world coal production, next to a recent IEA forecast.

Figure 3. Coal production through 2020 based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. “IEA Estimate” adds IEA indicated increases to historical BP coal quantities. Tverberg Estimate provides lower estimates for 2021 and 2022, considering depletion issues.

Figure 3 shows that world coal consumption has not been rising for about a decade.

Coal seems to be having the same problem with rising costs as oil. The cost of producing the coal is rising because of depletion, but citizens cannot afford to pay more for end products made with coal, such as electricity, steel and solar panels. Coal producers need higher prices to cover their higher costs, but it becomes increasingly difficult to pass these higher costs on to consumers. This is because politicians want to keep electricity prices low to keep their citizens and businesses happy.

If the cost of electricity rises, the cost of goods made with high-priced electricity will tend to rise. Businesses will find their sales falling in response to higher prices. In turn, they will tend to lay off workers. This is a recipe for recession, but a slightly different one than the ones mentioned earlier. It also is a good way for politicians not to get re-elected. As a result, politicians will try to hide rising coal costs from customers. For example, laws may be enacted capping electricity prices that can be charged to customers. Because of this, some electricity companies may be forced out of business.

The decrease in coal production I am showing for 2022 is only 1%, but when this small reduction is combined with the growth problems shown for coal and oil and the rising world population, it means that world coal supplies will be stretched.

China is the world’s largest coal producer and consumer. A major concern is that the country has serious coal depletion problems. It has experienced rolling blackouts since the fall of 2020. It has tried to encourage its own production by limiting coal imports, thus keeping wholesale coal prices high for local producers. It also limits the extent to which high coal costs can be passed on to electricity customers. As a result, the 2021 profits of electricity companies are expected to be reduced.

[4] The US may have some untapped coal resources that could be tapped, if there is a plan to ship more natural gas to Europe and other areas in need of the fuel.

The possibility of additional US coal production occurs because coal production in the US seems to have occurred because of competition from incredibly inexpensive natural gas (Figure 4). To some extent, this low natural gas price results from laws prohibiting oil and gas companies from “flaring” (burning off) natural gas that is too expensive to produce relative to the price it can be sold for. Prohibitions against flaring are a type of mandated subsidy of natural gas production by the oil-producing portion of “Oil & Gas” companies. This required subsidy leads to part of the need for high oil prices, especially for companies drilling in shale formations.

Figure 4. US coal production amounts through 2020 are from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. Amounts for 2021 and 2022 are estimated based on forecasts from EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook. Natural gas prices are average annual Henry Hub spot prices per million Btus, based on EIA data.

A major reason why US coal extraction started to decline about 2009 is because a very large amount of shale gas production started becoming available then as a byproduct of oil production from shale. Oil producers were primarily interested in extracting oil because it (hopefully) sold for a high price. Natural gas was a byproduct whose collection was barely economic, given its low selling price. Also, the economy didn’t have uses, such as trucks powered by natural gas, for all of this extra natural gas production. Figure 4 suggests that wholesale natural gas prices dropped by close to half, in response to this extra supply.

With these low natural gas prices, as well as coal pollution concerns, a significant amount of US electricity production was switched from coal to natural gas. It is my view that this change left coal in the ground, potentially for later use. Thus, if natural gas prices rise again, US coal production could perhaps rise again. The catch, of course, is that many coal-fired electricity-generating plants in the US have been taken out of service. In addition, coal mines have been closed. Any increase in future coal production would likely take place very slowly because of the need for many simultaneous changes.

[5] On a combined basis, using Tverberg Estimates for 2021 and 2022, fossil fuel production in total takes a step down in 2020 and doesn’t rise much in 2021 and 2022.

Figure 5. Sum of Tverberg Estimates related to oil, coal, and natural gas. Oil includes natural gas liquids but not biofuels. Historical amounts are from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Figure 5 shows that on a combined basis, the overall energy being provided by fossil fuels is likely to remain lower in 2021 and 2022 than it was in 2018 and 2019. This is concerning, because the economy cannot go back to its 2019 level of “openness” and optional travel for sightseers, without a big step up in energy supply, especially for oil.

This same figure shows that the production of the three fossil fuels is somewhat similar in quantity: Oil is the highest, coal is second, and natural gas comes in third. However, oil shows a step down in 2020’s production from which it has not recovered. Coal shows a smoother pattern of rise and eventual fall. So far, natural gas has mostly been rising, but not very steeply in recent years.

[6] Alternatives to fossil fuels are not living up to early expectations. Electricity from wind turbines and solar panels is not available when it is needed, requiring a great deal of back-up electricity generated by fossil fuels or nuclear. The total quantity of non-fossil fuel electricity is far too low. A transition now will simply lead to electricity blackouts and recession.

Figure 6 shows a summary of non-fossil fuel energy production for the years 2000 through 2020, without a projection to 2022. For clarification, wind and solar are part of the electrical renewables category.

Figure 6. World energy production for various categories, based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Figure 6 shows that nuclear electricity production has been declining at the same time that the production of electrical renewables has been increasing. In fact, a significant decrease in nuclear electricity is planned in Europe in 2022. This reduction in nuclear electricity is part of what is causing the concern about electricity supply for Europe for 2022.

The addition of wind and solar to an electrical grid seems to encourage the closure of nuclear electricity plants, even if they have many years of safe production still ahead of them. This happens because wind and solar are given the subsidy of “going first,” if they happen to have electricity available. Wind and solar may also be subsidized in other ways.

The net result of this arrangement is that wholesale electricity prices set through competitive markets quite frequently fall too low for other electricity producers (apart from wind and solar). For example, wind and solar electricity that is produced during weekends may be unneeded because many businesses are closed. Electricity produced by wind and solar in the spring and fall may be unneeded because heating and cooling needs tend to be low at these times of the year. Wind and solar electricity providers are not asked to cut back supply because their production is unneeded; instead, low (or negative) prices encourage other electricity producers to cut back supply.

Nuclear electricity producers are particularly adversely affected by this pricing arrangement because they cannot save money by cutting back their output when wind and solar are over-producing electricity, relative to demand. This strange pricing arrangement leads to unacceptably low profits for many nuclear electricity providers. They may voluntarily choose to be closed. Local governments find that if they want to keep their nuclear electricity producers, they need to subsidize them.

Wind and solar, with their subsidies, tend to look more profitable to investors, even though they cannot support the economy without a substantial amount of supplementary electricity production from other electricity providers, which, perversely, they are driving out of business through their subsidized pricing structure.

The fact that wind and solar cannot be depended upon has become increasingly obvious in recent months, as coal, natural gas and electricity prices have spiked in Europe because of low wind production. In theory, coal and natural gas imports should make up the shortfall, at a reasonable price. But total volumes available for import have not been increasing in the quantities that consumers need them to increase. And, as mentioned above, nuclear electricity production is increasingly unavailable as well.

[7] The total quantity of non-fossil fuel energy supplies is not very large, relative to the quantity of fossil fuel energy. Even if these non-fossil fuel energy supplies increase at a trend rate similar to that in the recent past, they do not make up for the projected fossil fuel production deficit.

Figure 7. Total energy production, based on the fossil fuel estimates in Figure 5 together with non-fossil fuels in Figure 6.

With respect to anticipated future non-fossil fuel electricity generation, one issue is how much nuclear is being shut off. I would imagine these current closure schedules could change, if countries become aware that they may be facing rolling blackouts without nuclear.

A second issue is the growing awareness that renewables don’t really work as intended. Why add more if they don’t really work?

A third issue is new studies suggesting that prices being paid for locally generated electricity may be too generous. Based on such an analysis, California is proposing a major reduction to its payments for renewable-generated electricity, starting July 1, 2022. This type of change could reduce new installations of solar panels on homes in California. Other locations may decide to make similar changes.

I have shown two estimates of future non-fossil fuel energy supply in Figure 7. The high estimate reflects a 4.5% annual increase in the total supply, in line with recent past increases for the group in total. The lower one assumes that 2021 production is similar to that in 2020 (because of more nuclear being closed, for example). Production for 2022 represents a 5% decrease from 2021’s production.

Regardless of which assumption is made, growth in non-fossil fuel electricity supply is not very important in the overall total. The world economy is still mostly powered by fossil fuels. The share of non-fossil fuels relative to total energy ranges from 16% to 18% in 2020, based on my low and high estimates.

[8] The energy narrative we are being told is mostly the narrative that politicians would like us to believe, rather than the narrative that historians and physicists would develop.

Politicians would like us to believe that we live in a world of everlasting economic growth and that the only thing we should fear is climate change. They base their analyses on models by economists who seem to think that an “invisible hand” will fix all problems. The economy can always grow; enough fossil fuels and other resources will always be available. Governments seem to be able to print money; somehow, this money will be transformed into physical goods and services. With these assumptions, the only problems are distant ones that central banks and carbon taxes can handle.

The realists are historians and physicists. They tell us that a huge number of past economies have collapsed when their populations attempted to grow at the same time that their resource bases were depleting. These realists tell us that there is a high probability that our current economy will eventually collapse, as well.

Figure 8. The Seneca Cliff by Ugo Bardi

The general shape that economic growth is likely to take is that of a “Seneca Curve” or “Seneca Cliff.” In the words of Lucius Annaeus Seneca in the first century CE, “Increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.” If we think of the amount graphed as the total quantity of goods and services received by citizens, the amount tends to rise slowly, gradually plateaus and then falls.

We now seem to be encountering lower energy supply while population continues to rise. It takes energy for any activity that we think of as contributing to GDP to occur. We should not be surprised if we are at the edge of a recession. If we cannot get our energy problems solved, the downturn could be very long-lasting.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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4,903 Responses to 2022: Energy limits are likely to push the world economy into recession

  1. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Italian truckers now mobilising with reports Aussies are ready to go and UK & Europe truckers poised to go as well.
    https://twitter.com/backtolife_2019/status/1487040176400613382

  2. Harry McGibbs says:

    “About 40 per cent of economies including the European Union, Jamaica, Paraguay and the UK that have fiscal rules – limits on spending, deficits or debt that signal a government’s commitment to prudence – have activated “escape clauses” since the outbreak of the pandemic, the IMF said in a blogpost on Thursday.

    “This compares with 5 per cent exercising the same option during the global financial crisis… Debt deviations also reached unprecedented levels.”

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/2022/01/27/debt-and-deficits-forced-40-of-global-economies-to-suspend-fiscal-rules-amid-pandemic/

  3. Harry McGibbs says:

    “We’re Sloshing Toward Economic Regime Change…

    “Brent crude is now its most expensive since an epic fall in 2014… What’s strange is that the dollar and the oil price usually have a strong inverse correlation. All oil transactions are denominated in dollars, so a rising oil price should automatically lead to a falling dollar, and vice versa… this relationship has endured consistently for 15 years — but now, oil and the dollar have parted ways.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-01-28/we-re-sloshing-toward-economic-regime-change-as-inflation-brings-displacements

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Financial Superbubble Meets Political Dystopia… America’s current superbubble has been fueled by trillions of dollars from the Federal Reserve, added to the economy in recent years in an attempt to keep the party going…

      “The next bubble popping… should be a moment of clarity for Americans to behold our utterly broken federal government. At the very time when we all need the federal government the most, I guarantee that we will run smack into an ineffectual, divided, dysfunctional Congress that will be unable to roll out the fiscal policy necessary to save us from the abyss.”

      https://inthesetimes.com/article/financial-superbubble-crypto-economy-crash

    • Good point! Maybe all currencies are worth very little, so comparing them doesn’t work very well now.

  4. Harry McGibbs says:

    “China home builders, suppliers issue spate of profit warnings as Evergrande woes bite.

    “A growing number of Chinese construction and decoration companies are writing off assets or issuing profit warnings as debt woes at China Evergrande Group and other property developers debilitate their suppliers.”

    https://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSKBN2K20PD

  5. Harry McGibbs says:

    “U.K. Cost of Living Squeeze Underscored by New Inflation Data…

    “The figures indicated the breadth of pain hitting consumers… Wealthier households are being squeezed because they spend more on items that have seen faster price rises, such as transport, furniture, going out, recreation and health… Poorer households have less to spend on discretionary items and are more exposed to higher prices for staples such as food, energy and clothing.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-28/u-k-s-wealthy-face-higher-inflation-rate-than-poorest

  6. Harry McGibbs says:

    “A gauge the Federal Reserve prefers to measure inflation rose 4.9% from a year ago, the biggest gain going back to September 1983, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

    “The core personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy was slightly more than the 4.8% Dow Jones estimate…”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/28/key-fed-inflation-gauge-rises-4point9percent-from-a-year-ago-fastest-gain-since-1983.html

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “The old inflation playbook no longer applies…

      “Unlike at any time in the past 40 years, the post-pandemic inflation surge is not principally being driven by excessive demand but by limits on supply capacity, as recent research by the BlackRock Investment Institute shows.”

      https://www.ft.com/content/1e59e952-c5cf-4c8e-983a-560170c87cda

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        “The Danger Is Deflation, Not Inflation…

        “It’s tricky to remove the easy money when the bond market is indicating the possibility of a slowdown… Global debt is about 130 percent of GDP; such levels are unsustainable, let alone if rates increase. Even a quarter point would devastate the global economy.”

        https://seekingalpha.com/article/4482202-the-danger-is-deflation-not-inflation

      • This is precisely the problem. There is a supply problem, and renewables are not filling the need. Electricity particularly is in short supply in Europe, China, and other places. People have not understood that renewables cannot be relied upon. The economy shrinks back without enough.

        • MM says:

          Of course renewables can not fill the gap, Gail.
          It is perfectly well understood that renewables plus hydrogen plus batteries will fill the gap.

  7. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Getting food on shelves will probably remain expensive for a while yet, even if crop prices decline…

    “The reason? The food supply chain is still grappling with high costs of energy, packaging and transportation, as well as shortages of workers and shipping containers. That’s feeding through to grocery-store prices of everything from bread to vegetable oil around the world, further squeezing household budgets.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-01-28/supply-chain-latest-expensive-food-even-if-crop-prices-ease

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Credit crunch tightens up glyphosate supply… An input supplier says importers must now pay 25 percent of their glyphosate order when the deal is made and the rest before the product is shipped, rather than 30 to 90 days after arrival the way it used to be done…

      “U.S. plant pathologist thinks many farmers will resort to tillage this year because of a glyphosate and glufosinate shortage.”

      https://www.producer.com/news/credit-crunch-tightens-up-glyphosate-supply/

      • This is the herbicide that goes by the brand name Round-up. With less of this herbicide, some other approach is needed. Tillage tends to lead to more soil erosion. It also takes more labor, so it is not a perfect solution.

        Glyphosate is not good for humans. It probably is not good for other animals either. So less glyphosate is a plus in this respect.

        • Richard Marleau says:

          Glyphosate is the generic chemical and off patent. Glyphosate is an interesting product as it is relied upon heavily for no till production which tends to mimic nature more closely than a tillage based system. However most field crop production is based on monoculture annual crops whereas nature is based on perennial poly culture with animals involved in nutrient cycling on site.
          Part of the glyphosate supply issue is a cutback in export production in china likely due to what else but resource constraints. One of the more interesting challenges facing industrial agriculture at this time is herbicide resistance. In my farming career since the mid 1990’s glyphosate was about $6/L CAD /360 g ai in the 1990s to about $4/L thru the 2000’s up until about 2018, now it is $9 to $12/L. Anyways the increase in the price of glyphosate is only part of what is increasing cost of production for the “traditional” method of production. Because the product was so effective and relatively inexpensive most producers did not tank mix with multiple modes of action thereby leading to herbicide resistance. So now glyphosate alone is no longer effective and a tank mix partner is required to obtain sufficient control again adding to the costs. Five years ago a “burnoff” preseed application would be about $8/ac if you were concerned about resistance or weed spectrum. Now it is bumping $20/ac.
          And complex systems come into play because there are only certain active ingredients that are effective for control and also safe for the intended crop. Not even recognizing any toxicological issues that may exist there are issues as far as effectiveness/cost on the horizon for herbicides in my humble estimation within five years and I am fairly certain it will happen by the end of the decade. In some respects I think that herbicides were released to humanity with the idea to maximize profits not maximize length of utility to humanity.

    • A rapidly growing supply of cheap energy helps get food on the shelves, cheaply. As soon as parts of this chain are missing (fewer migrant workers, for example), supply tends to fall, even as the cost of production per unit tend to rise. Without a rising supply of cheap energy products, the problem is pretty much impossible to fix.

  8. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Supply chain bottlenecks: ‘It’s been nuts’…

    “Just as banks were forced to invest in consolidated data streams and live risk dashboards after the financial crisis, this year’s supply chain problems have prompted other companies to invest in risk management.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/a3e973df-d6da-48c2-a43c-3a8acc2f1a5c

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Cardboard-Box Shortage Is Latest Disruption to Global Shipping…

      “While e-commerce has fueled demand for packaging, pandemic-related labor shortages and shipping constraints are also making it harder to make and deliver the boxes used to carry everything from food to consumer goods.”

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-27/cardboard-boxes-shortage-is-latest-disruption-to-global-shipping

      • I imagine the failure of the recycling chain to produce lots and lots more cardboard is part of the problem. (Sending mixed recycling around the world for reprocessing doesn’t work.) Also, if goods are ordered over the internet, everything is shipped in cardboard, ramping up demand.

        • Here in North Florida I know of at least two Counties totalling >1M people that have discontinued household pickup of mixed recyle (alum, paperboard, cardboard, paper, multiple plastics)
          (one was weekly semi-sorted mixed 18gal bins manual pickup driver + loader; other was biweekly 96gal totally mixed w/ driver only mechanical arm dumps) Most of it was going to the landfill incurring extra costs beyond what would have been if just thrown away to start with.

          Household recycling has never been a profit center and covid labor problems plus discontinuation of disposal via shipping overseas meant that a good portion was going to landfills

          There are materials that targeted recycling makes sense: Aluminum cans, clear plastic HDPE & PET, and perhaps cardboard & paperboard – for these prices will rise due to loss of recycle streams

          But even with higher prices need centralized dropoff/charity drives (like old paper drives for boyscouts or schools) or staggered monthly (or less frequently) pickup for segregated matl rather than weekly pickup at homes of mixed requiring sorting & decontamination – too much energy/cost to make mixed, easily contaminated pickup work on either an energy or monetary basis.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Makes sense… they go through the charade of recycling to make the MOREONS feel good.. then it gets dumped in the ocean or burned in someone’s back yard in Cebu.

            I like to cut out the middle men … and do the right thing (is it fair to send the pollution to Cebu?) and burn the lot in my Rayburn … using some coal to make sure it burns hard and reduces pollutants!

            What I cannot burn I bury in a hole in the backyard or chuck in the river.

    • Workarounds are needed everywhere!

  9. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Oil Rally Fueled By OPEC Production Shortfall.

    “Whatever the immediate future moves of oil prices, the fact remains that OPEC and Russia and their Central Asian partners don’t seem to be able to stick to their production quotas for reasons varying from political trouble in Libya to technical problems in Nigeria and dwindling spare capacity in Russia and most of OPEC.”

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Rally-Fueled-By-OPEC-Production-Shortfall.html

    • It shouldn’t be a surprise that OPEC production is falling short of its quotas. This is pretty much what I was forecasting in my post. IEA’s forecast have been based on wishful thinking about existing oil supplies, among other things.

  10. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Russia’s Oil Weapon May Be More Potent Than Gas Blackmail… The global market for oil is extremely tight right now, made apparent by rising oil prices even in the face of an economy feeling the weight of the omicron variant…

    “Russia could unilaterally drive up global prices if it cut its current oil production of 10 million barrels per day by even a relatively small amount. An oil-price spike would directly affect the U.S. — and a Biden administration understandably sensitive to gasoline prices.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-01-28/russia-may-use-oil-weapon-responding-to-ukraine-sanctions

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Russia-Ukraine crisis: Severe sanctions could trigger crippling Moscow response… The potential economic confrontation between Moscow and Washington represents uncharted territory, as Washington has never imposed drastic sanctions on an economy of Russia’s size and importance.

      “And if it is faced with unprecedented sanctions, Russia would be likely to choose to respond in an unprecedented way that could have ripple effects in the U.S. economy and around the world, experts said.”

      https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-crisis-severe-sanctions-trigger-crippling-moscow-respon-rcna13691

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        “An invasion of Ukraine could drive up global food prices and spark unrest far from the front lines…

        “…a major Russian incursion would affect the flow of goods from Ukraine, the world’s fourth-largest supplier of wheat and corn. A major disruption of Ukrainian exports — especially in conjunction with any interruption in even larger Russian grain exports — could pile onto a global inflationary cycle that in many countries is already the worst in decades.”

        https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/01/28/ukraine-grain-exports-russia-threat/

      • No kidding! We are “playing with fire” on this one.

        • Harry McGibbs says:

          This is a very strange period of history. On the one hand, the global economy is networked and integrated as never before, so that nations are really just localised expressions of a global whole, albeit with varying degrees of systemic criticality.

          But on the other, energy and resource-constraints are increasingly pressuring these interdependent, conjoined entities into conflict situations. As with Trump’s trade war with China, there doesn’t seem to be any party on whom a conflict between Russia, Ukraine and their various allies would confer a net benefit, at least in anything other than the very short-term.

          It would be an act of self-harm by an increasingly stressed and unbalanced system that would in turn make it more stressed and unbalanced. Hopefully cooler heads prevail and the protagonists find a way to stand down without losing face.

          • Student says:

            Very interesting considerations. Thank you.

          • Tim Groves says:

            Today’s newspaper had a Puzzles section that included a maze based on a 40 x 40 square grid. The entrance to the maze is on the right and the exit is on the left, and there is only one path through it.

            You know, I looked at the thing for an hour but couldn’t see how to negotiate it. I am sure that if I used pencils to shade the passages that led into cul de sacs, I would eventually be able to solve it. But by using only my eyes and brain, I had no chance to crack it.

            Looking at the world and trying to figure out who is doing what to whom, how and why, is a different sort of task but perhaps even more difficult that finding one’s way through a maze. At least with a maze, everything we need to know is given to us. It is just that for most of us our mental faculties are not quite up to performing the required processing task.

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “UniCredit has dropped a potential bid for a Russian state-owned bank because of the escalating crisis over Ukraine.

      “CEO Andrea Orcel confirmed reports that the Italian bank was considering acquiring Otkritie when it goes public, but has since abandoned the project due to the “geopolitical environment.”

      https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/28/investing/unicredit-russian-bank/index.html

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        “Hungary will seek to increase the amount of gas it receives from Russia at talks with President Vladimir Putin next week, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Friday…

        “Orban, who faces what is expected to be a close-fought election on April 3, has dismissed calls from a unified opposition to cancel his visit to Moscow, scheduled for Tuesday.”

        https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/hungary-seek-more-russian-gas-amid-energy-crunch-orban-says-2022-01-28/

        • This sounds like a sensible approach. Without negotiations, gas supply will be short of what is needed:

          Hungary’s gas reserves were 43% filled based on Jan. 15 Energy and Public Utility Regulatory Authority (MEKH) data. It said that, combined with expected further imports, would cover 90% of Hungary’s expected remaining winter gas needs.

    • Russia has lots of energy weapons.

  11. Fast Eddy says:

    “Care homes to allow unlimited visitors from Monday as England ends Plan B rules” – Self-isolation periods for care home residents who test positive will be reduced from 14 days to 10, Sajid Javid announced

    Why not? Hahahahaha Let er Rip = Let er Rip

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/27/plan-b-england-care-home-residents-unlimited-visitors/

  12. Fast Eddy says:

    Netherlands Reports Record Infections Despite 90% Vaccination Rate – And Eases Restrictions Anyway

    https://dailysceptic.org/2022/01/27/netherlands-reports-record-infection-levels-despite-90-vaccination-rate-but-eases-restrictions-anyway/

    https://dailysceptic.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/coronavirus-data-explorer-2022-01-26T213612.771-1-1536×1084.png

    Anyone care to guess where this is headed? Wonder what Bossche is thinking about now ….

    He’s probably building a quickie doomsday bunker hahahaha

    • Xabier says:

      The Great Relaxation we are seeing now is certainly very suspicious! A complete flip from imminent Variant Doom as Omicron spread just a few weeks ago. What are they about?

      1/ Seeking to stir the variant pot in the hope something nasty pops up (or preparing the way for something that has already been cooked up in a lab.)

      2/ To soften people up so that they are hit all the harder psycologically when restrictions are re-imposed.

      3/ To support the fairy tale that ‘Vaxxes stopped Covid’.

      4/ To distract as more pieces of the bio-metric, digitised, control system are put in place and new round of vaxxes is prepared for March.

      5/ To discredit a return to freedom – ‘We tried a soon as we reasonably could, but it failed’.

      6/ To take some heat off the politician puppets, they have lots to do yet to fulfill the Plan.

      7/ In the hope that a nastier variant will cover up vaxx deaths and injuries.

      NB All the above assumes utter dishonesty on the part of all concerned, rather than care for public health and the intention to return to normal: a fair assumption after two years of this criminal fraud…..

      • Jarle says:

        > 3/ To support the fairy tale that ‘Vaxxes stopped Covid’.

        My bet.

      • Student says:

        My impression is: the situation is so critical that now politicians of the western world are ready to do anything can cover their mistakes.
        ….’whatever it takes’….

  13. Fast Eddy says:

    Two of the nation’s top doctors said they refuse to give their own kids a COVID booster shot

    https://palexander.substack.com/p/top-doctors-monica-gandhi-and-paul

  14. Fred says:

    Covid-19 Vax Patent Horrors
    By Dr. Ariyana Love
    In my latest interview with Stew Peter’s, we discussed how the “Covid-19 vaccine” ingredients listed in the patents, reveal that all these poisonous death shots are deleting genes and genetically modifying Humans for patentability.

    GRAPHENE
    The Hydrogel patent US8415325B2 is listed in the Moderna patent, here. Hydrogels are also mentioned in a second Moderna patent, here. Hydrogel is listed in the Johnson & Johnson patent, here. Hydrogels are made from Graphene Oxide. Nobody can deny the evidence that Graphene Oxide is in the shots.

    GMO HUMANS
    All the Covid-19 “vaccine” patents mention gene deletion. All the patents except one, mention “complimentary DNA” (cDNA). cDNA is a chimeric mRNA cocktail that’s being coded into Human cells using artificial genetic sequences in cross-species genomics.
    According to the US Supreme Court ruling in 2013, altering Humans with cDNA makes them patent eligible. The court documents show that cDNA is made using modified bacterium and Supreme Court judges ruled it patent eligible. This means that a plant, animal or Human, could be patented and owned if first genetically modified with cDNA.
    Mark Steele summarized it perfectly by stating:

    In the US, the Supreme Court has ruled that vaccinated people worldwide are products, patented goods, according to US law, no longer human. Through a modified DNA or RNA vaccination, the mRNA vaccination, the person ceases to be human and becomes the OWNER of the holder of the modified GEN vaccination patent, because they have their own genome and are no longer “human” (without natural people), but “trans-human”, so a category that does not exist in Human Rights. The quality of a natural person and all related rights are lost. This applies worldwide and patents are subject to US law.

    Since 2013, all people vaccinated with GM-modified mRNAs are legally trans-human and legally identified as trans-human and do not enjoy any human or other rights of a state, and this applies worldwide, because GEN-POINT technology patents are under US jurisdiction and law, where they were registered.”

    BACTERIUM, NOT “VIRUSES”
    The court document says scientists added 4 plasmids to a bacterium. I already documented in my article entitled, “EPIGENETICS: Vaccines Are deleting Human Genes & Transfecting Cells With Ebola/Marburg,” that E. coli is the base for all these chimeric bioweapons, not viruses.

    I found E. coli listed in most of the patents. Mind you, these are genetically enhanced, antibiotic resistant bacterium, made to be them more lethal. They are then transfected into GMO parasites and Hydras. These parasites are more difficult to kill but they can be killed using specific natural protocols.
    You can eliminate the entire species with CRISPR-Cas-9 technology or completely remove genetic traits in the Human race.

    FAUCI FUNDED BIOWEAPONS
    I previously wrote about the Fauci-funded chimeric bioweapon called the Lentivirus mRNA vector in my article entitled, ” Transgenic Hydras & Parasites A Biological Weapons System For Rapid Human Cloning.” The Lentivirus bioweapon was developed in Wuhan and contains the HIV 1-3, SARS, MERS and the AIDS inducing SRV-1. It can be found in the Moderna, Pfizer, J&J, AstraZeneca and Oxford patents.
    The HIV-1 Bioweapon, which contained within the Lentivirus vector, is patented and owned by Anthony Fauci. He is a mass murdering war criminal responsible for this “Vaccine” Holocaust.

    PATENT HIGHLIGHTS
    The Pfizer patent mentions gene 69-70 deletion and mutation.
    Thermo Fischer produced a study revealing that gene deletion mutations is the cause of “vaccine” induced variants. This company is not only profiting from this “Vaccine” Holocaust but Thermo Fischer has a scientific report clearly stating that gene deletion is responsible for the Lambda, Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and Delta variants.

    SV-40 vector is a chimeric Bioweapon found in the J&J patent. It’s known to cause rapid cancer growth. The SV-40 vector is provided to J&J by Thermo Fischer. SV-40 contains Human cells, Bovine Growth Hormone (Mad Cow Disease), E. coli, and Herpes. This would explain the Herpes outbreaks after “vaccination”.

    The Pfizer patent also mentions gene 144 deletion which causes rapid cancer growth.
    I also found a patent for a “Combo kit PCR” that mentions gene deletion! So the PCR is not a test at all but implants the mRNA technology without Informed Consent, into your brain.

    The Pfizer patent mentions X / Y Chromosome inversions. Inversion of sex genes cause sterility. Since this is a depopulation/extermination and cloning agenda, the transgender Psyop begins to make sense. They want to sterilize our kids and cross-sex hormones will achieve that.

    The Moderna patent mentions folding protein and mutations (thus variants) that result in rapid aging and genetic diseases. The patent literally says this is a “Loss-of-Function” and thus, a gene deleting Bioweapon.
    Moderna’s patents are listed on their website.

    The Moderna patent says it’s using the Bovine Growth Hormone which comes from a cow disease known as Mad Cow Disease. Moderna is cloning Humans with a cow disease that becomes deadly when coded into Human cells. This is an animal disease that does NOT even affect Humans so why is Big Pharma transfecting Human cells with Bovine Growth Hormone when it’s known to induce neurological degeneration, dementia and death?

    Here’s a PCR kit patent that “tests” Humans for Mad Cow Disease. Or, does it actually transfect Humans with Mad Cow Disease using the Hydrogels?

    The Moderna patents makes “add and delete” references to RNA using cDNA templates. It also has starts codons or Open Reading Frame (ORF. These are no stop codons which means there’s no stop to the gene mutations. The variants will continue on indefinitely, passing through the Human race just as Geert Vanden Bosche said would happen.
    Without stop codons, an organism is unable to produce specific proteins. The new polypeptide (protein) chain will just grow and grow until the cell bursts or there are no more available amino acids to add to it.

    Moderna’s patent also mentions “induce triple helix formation”. This is the third strand that’s being synthetically added to Human DNA. This study shows more about how scientists are creating the triple helix formation in Humans. Here’s another study revealing the artificial triple helix.

    The Moderna “Protocol” says one in two of their shots is a Saline. So that’s a 50-50% Russian Roulette chance with your life and your health. The patent also states that Moderna is “encoding HIV-1“. Once again, that’s Fauci’s bioweapon.
    The AstraZeneca patent states an E1, E3, E4 gene deletion. As I documented earlier, these gene deletions induce AIDS, unless you get the Saline. Later the pharmaceutical cartel will be removing all Saline shots.

    The Novovax patent mentions gene deletion.

    The GlaxoSmithKline patent mentions gene deletion and says it uses H1N1, which is the same chimeric bacteria that was used to kill 500 million people in the 1918 Democide, dubbed the “Spanish Flu”, as this study reveals.
    “The trimerization domain (foldon) of T4 phage fibritin, a trimeric beta hairpin propeller, was first used in crystallization studies of the 1918 H1N1.”

    Bill Gates said to expect a Smallpox Bioweapon terror attack. Smallpox is made from the N1H1 chimeric bacterium proteins. I documented that previously.
    The patents back up what Dr. Pablo Campra’s said in his Stew Peter’s interview, that these death jabs contain Nano-biosensors. I’ll be revealing more about this from the patents very soon!

    Conclusion
    This is not a weapons system of one country against another. This is a weapons system of the NWO against the entire Human population. The only way this ends is when we stand together as one.
    Here’s the World Freedom Alliance Notice of Liability. Any regular citizen can serve anyone with a notice of war crimes, if they are mandating or coercing you to take this poisonous shot which is in violation of your basic Human Rights and Nuremberg Codes. Since this is an international case, the Notice of Liability is served in English, country-wide.
    See original interview with Stew Peters and Dr. Ariyana Love on Rumble, here.
    PLEASE SEE: Dr. Ariyana Love: Graphene Covid Kill Shots, Let The Evidence Speak For Itself

    December 8, 2021 by Dr. Ariyana Love
    Link https://ambassadorlove.wordpress.com/2021/12/08/covid-19-patent-horrors/

    This info was in a comment on this page: https://dailyexpose.uk/2022/01/15/new-study-shows-an-increase-in-deaths-in-145-countries-after-covid-vaccines-were-introduced%E2%80%8B/

    • MM says:

      The vax is by definition no genetherapy when it is in practice.
      It is very old knowledge that a GMO becomes the property of the patent holder,
      At least as long as a patent has a legal basis.

  15. Harry McGibbs says:

    “A US judge invalidated a major oil-and-gas lease sale saying the government failed to account for its climate change effect, in a significant win for environment advocates.

    “The decision cast uncertainty over the future of the US federal offshore drilling programme, which has been a chief source of public revenue for decades but also drawn the ire of activists…”

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/28/us-judge-annuls-major-oil-lease-sale-over-climate-impact

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Since the oil price collapse at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, the supermajors have slashed exploration budgets just as the pressure on oil companies to cut production of hydrocarbons has increased.

      “Spending on exploration by the seven majors was 9 per cent of total capital expenditure in 2020, down from 18 per cent in 2014… the supermajors are… being more selective, participating in fewer licensing rounds but still drilling where they believe there is a high chance of success.”

      https://www.ft.com/content/5c158a4f-24a7-49aa-a2e9-f07f918244ba

  16. Fast Eddy says:

    norm?

    mike?

    Now what do you think is gonna happen if they Let er Rip … and don’t have a policy of Focused Protection to mitigate the damage to the at risk Danes?

    What do you think…. is gonna happen?

    I’ll tell you what — this will get worse — and the Danes will clamour for Booster shots… which will make it even Worse…

    Throwing petrol on a raging fire… then throwing more petrol on the raging fire hahahahahahaahahahahahahahahahahahahaha Fools!!!

    https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F02d399ae-6a47-46fe-bce3-991ce23821dc_1047x558.png

    https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb39a169a-4aec-42fe-9c30-f7077f90a5d4_1047x559.png

  17. Fast Eddy says:

    Oh wow…. check this out norm

    https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/why-is-the-narrative-changing-and

    Seems an odd time to Let er Rip hahahahaha

    https://media.giphy.com/media/GgbCiS1rMjGFy/giphy.gif

  18. Fast Eddy says:

    My mate is actually in a worse state than her…. physically…

  19. Fast Eddy says:

    Hey mike … I recommend watching from the 25:00 mark

    https://youtu.be/nNH51vLxYyQ?t=1485

  20. Tim Groves says:

    Is Castreau doing a Ceaușescu?

    The latter condemned his detractors, misjudged the mood of the nation, tried to do a runner, and didn’t fare very well.

    • Tim Groves says:

      Unacceptable is the new Deploreable.

      • jj says:

        As much as I am sympathetic… I tried to feel excited and happy watching. All I could think is damn that looks cold. Character defect? Honest question. Is the inability to believe in the demonstatebly false a character defect?

        Well at least Canadians are getting to know their neighbors that will come in handy for 20 people in a room to generate heat. Assuming food calories.

        Speaking of Canadians. Farley Mowat RIP reported the native Canadian northern tribes never made permanent shelter. The worst time was before snow in late fall. After snow fall snow shelters were constructed. Location of shelter tried for maximum snow drift level for maximum insulation. Insulation placed via wind. Snow is a great insulator. A precious resource.

        All of this was of course dependent on abundant planet provided resource energy in the form of wild game for food. Modern rifles, declining habitat, and human population overshoot spelled the end of that.

        No shelter in October in Northern Canada? Can you imagine? I wouldnt last a week. Suffering was part of native peoples existence even 70 years ago. They dont want to go back either. Who would? Its unthinkable. Have we evolved to consume only the easiest most powerful resource? Of course.

        Tom Brown says you can just curl up in a snow drift nice warm and cozy. Tried it a couple of times a couple decades ago. Dont work for me. I started experiencing frostbite. I suppose if you had a high metabolism while inactive and plenty of fat to burn. Were humans different metabolically a hundred years ago?

        Exerting personal power by using fossil fuels to move empty trucks. I cant take joy in that no matter sympathetic I am to the cause. I find it sad because at its heart there is not awareness and ability to find appropriate action let alone demonstrate it. I would like to feel camaraderie with those truckers but i know their actions ultimately are communicating that all human power rests with fossil fuels. That they are unaware of that and humanities situation and that is reflected in their actions saddens me.

        The energy will run out. Just like caribou it will be depleted. If we are to keep self evident rights of the magna carta we must detach it from energy usage. Equating self evident rights with a soon to be depleted energy source assures the demise of self evident rights. That is why the truckers convoy saddens me. Their actions work against self evident rights, the very thing they are trying to assert. That and to see all those nice people living where it is so cold.

        If we are to keep self evident rights of the magna carta we must detach it from energy usage not assert that it is dependent on a soon to be depleted energy source. I am not sure that will occur at all. Largely freedom is considered freedom to consume energy via fiat currency with self evident rights being regarded as mere formalities.

        How would those truckers decide if the choice is between dictatorship and no consumption? Are they protesting for self evident human rights or protesting lack of freedom to consume?

        That remains undefined.

        We simply must detach reasonable self evident rights from notions about energy consumption entitlement if we are to keep self evident rights.

        I am greatly concerned in humans demonstrated lack of ability to do this. We are all beggars. We beg from the planet. It is our patron we are not its patron. Humbleness is appropriate. How can humbleness and appropriate actions be found in light of the horror of resource depletion?
        Without affirming basis in these matters I can not see the human essence and legacy being any more than a reflection of force asserted as a function of consumption.

        I do x therefore I an entitled to consume.
        I am y therefore I am entitled to consume.
        I believe z therefore I am entitled to consume.
        I hate A therefore I am entitled to consume.

        How do i fill in the blanks? How do you? What do we base that on?

        The reality is that all of that is delusion. Our ability to consume is based on begging from our patron. Begging is a honorable profession. The only profession.

        Is this the new magna carta? It seems so to me. People picking everything that is their essence based on maximum power principle. Can self evident human rights continue to be asserted in a time of resource depletion? Was our best most honest legacy represented from times past?

        I dont like the answer. Nor does anybody else. That makes the questions taboo in a world where our patron is denied acknowledgment.

        • a well thought out, stand alone piece jj

        • Fast Eddy says:

          All very true…

          But… because I feel alive when there is chaos….

          I am hoping the truckers and their supporters can cause mayhem in Ottawa… mainly because…

          I like to watch (TM).

        • CTG says:

          You just describe that we are living in a simulation

        • Tim Groves says:

          “Exerting personal power by using fossil fuels to move empty trucks. I cant take joy in that no matter sympathetic I am to the cause.”

          I feel the same about this. But we must remember, the authorities (who must have a good idea that FFs are rapidly becoming unaffordable) are not telling the people that this is the case. We have one lot who are saying that using FFs is driving GW/CC, and another lot saying that with the will to do so, Saudi America can become a reality. Most people’s conceptual universes lie somewhere inside the ballpark sketched out by these two narratives. They don’t recognize that FFs and all that FFs make possible are disappearing like the water down the proverbial bathtub plughole due to affordability issues.

          So I must ask, has the world become a giant Jonestown where we must all drink the Kool Aid, or do we have any better options than that going forward?

          • Perhaps moving all of the empty trucks helps keep the demand for oil up, and the system going (marginals wells still producing).

            I am afraid you are right:
            “FFs and all that FFs make possible are disappearing like the water down the proverbial bathtub plughole due to affordability issues.”

            I hadn’t thought of it this way,

            ” . . .has the world become a giant Jonestown where we must all drink the Kool Aid, or do we have any better options than that going forward?”

          • jj says:

            Tim;
            I would first like to mention I appreciate your writings very much. I appreciate your calm presence. I appreciate how you always remain polite. I appreciate how you always return to the facts.

            I most appreciate you grow food.

            It appears to me that the injections represent a intervention of sorts. The start of man genetically modifying himself.

            Its interesting how people react to this. On this blog I dare say we have a understanding of how dire mankinds situation is. Change is obviously appropriate.
            Change always has risk.

            I think roughly people can be divided into two camps amongst those that understand what is occurring. One feels this brave new world is absolutely needed for humanity. That argument is not without merit. To a large extent anything is preferable to anarchy with mankind in its current state. What happens to Lebanon without food aid?

            The other camp is not united in its reasoning. Some have religious beliefs. Some understand that mandated or coerced injections are a clear violation of self evident rights. Some see the injections as a hindrance to earning, owning, and consuming. Some just reject forced injections intuitively. Some realize the numbers the “vaccine” dont add up in a big way in either safety or effectiveness. Many of these subcamps value a continuance of what was.

            My reasoning is that humanities technological prowess has led to the situation and that more technological force will not create favorable outcomes. I find beauty and grace in the planet. I acknowledge human capability to be part of that grace and beauty. I see the manipulation of genetics as contrary to humans accepting and becoming part of the grace and beauty of the planet. I do not believe mankind has the collective wisdom for a intervention and any attempt to do so using this technology will result in a outcome that is contrary to mankind accepting the grace and beauty of the planet.

            We are a war culture. The human created virus is considered a threat. Instead of questioning where this technology got us we attack. The issue is our reliance on force. Everthings a nail when all you got is a hammer.

            Ultimately I see our hope in divine intervention. I try to focus my actions and whats left of my energies along that understanding. I am very poor at it. Thats how i see appropriate action. Cultivating a personal relationship with the planet. I see the power struggles as feeding war culture. I try to relax into beauty and grace. That beauty and grace allows me to stand up for what i believe. At the same time I am heavily invested into earning owning and consuming. My lifes energy mostly spent on it. I was a good war culture dog. I am far from a saint. We are multifaceted creatures and I am no exception. I have vast tendencies toward reactivness. Many of my posts here have reflected that reactivness. Is that what I am? I find it hard to accept the dystopian reality that has occurred. That lack of acceptance keeps me from connecting with the base state.

            Power struggles are a function of war culture. Words are the tools of power struggle. They have power because we give them power.

            If you believe in the planet you dont need to use force. You relax. Labor is part of relaxing. Work is part of relaxing. Calm is the default base state. If you are not calm it is not because force is needed it is because force you are exerting is keeping you from the base state. Often because of placing inappropriate value in the words of war culture. We are trained to always implement force to effect change but its that programing that keeps natural change from occurring. That is how I am trying to operate. Connect with the planet. The planet will do what is appropriate. I accept. I am very poor at it but I try to exert my energies toward relaxing into the base in this manner.. Only in the base calm state are my actions appropriate. I take sanctuary in the calm base state and trust it will create appropriate actions not notions that come and go or traps of the war culture.

            I am not preaching Tim just explaining my position. I am certainly not skilled enough to preach or to teach. My guess is you are more skilled than I in returning to the base state. I know you know right from wrong. I do too. There are no doubts there. You have your land. you belong to it. Nothing can take that from you. Nothing.

            • Kowalainen says:

              And Tim isn’t using tools/technology (force) in cultivating the land? And I’m not ripping the choices of Tim.

              So who’s to decide which amount of ‘force’ is sufficient?

              You.

              Playing with (worldly) hypotheses is a powerful tool in discovery of the truth that which is you. It’s when ideas turns into a tryhard fixation of the ego (unreasonable, boundless, wants and desires) predicaments arise. However, don’t miss the oasis/Eden in the garden of mirages.

              Just drop the fantasies like a hot potato at the first few hints of burn (delusion). It could have merely been a mirage (or perhaps it isn’t?) and it is useless to dwell on it. It’s better to walk away with a smile and calm mind.

              Sometimes you know… Is this real or BS? Well; just wing it and jump after the rabbit. It could be fun, who knows… 😉

              Yes; “we” are entitled to consume because it’s how life works. Minerals plus energy (stuff and work) outputs complexity that extends into your evolving thought processes.

              Be the reflection of life itself. That’s sort of how I intuit about stuff in my life, whatever that is worth.

              In the mean time:

              Chop wood; carry water

              ☺️

  21. Fast Eddy says:

    Canada has a trucker convoy…

    In NZ we have this:

    https://www.tiktok.com/@youvegot2bekidding/video/7052092917552516398

  22. Fast Eddy says:

    Do you want to watch a trucker video?

    https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/recent-video-from-the-defeat-the

    • https://youtu.be/9tXxko5XT-E

      great music from the 70’s. Now all we need is Fast Eddy in a 78 Trans-am running lead with Jerry Reed hauling a truckload of Ivermectin from Mexico to the Georgia State Fair/Atlanta Speedway…can stop nearby and visit Gail.

      • drb says:

        Really touching to watch the people lining the freeways. Their hearts are in the right place. But it won’t help them.

        • Foolish Fitz says:

          ” Their hearts are in the right place. But it won’t help them”

          drb, how so?

          The majority, or quite often a small minority, can and have historically affected change.

          The energy conclusions for people here have no bearing on this battle(yet).

          This is a simple expression of dying on your feet, rather than your knees and by all accounts making quite a few stand up.

          I hope this mindset goes global.

          Kind of like wiping the lipstick off the pig, so everyone can see whats underneath.

  23. Ed says:

    May God bless the truckers.

  24. Michael Le Merchant says:
  25. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Unvaccinated parents will be BANNED from seeing their own sick KIDS in Western Australian hospitals under strict new laws from Mark McGowan

    The Western Australia premier, who has proudly touted his state will have the ‘broadest’ vaccine passport rules in the country, is bringing in tough new rules on January 31.

    The hospital visitation plan would see only those with exemptions from the vaccine to be allowed to visit hospitals – including to see their own kids.

    Mr McGowan has promised to make life ‘very hard’ for those who refuse the jab, and has further ostracised himself from the rest of the country by extending the state’s closed borders beyond the February 5 re-opening date he had promised.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10447723/Unvaccinated-parents-banned-seeing-sick-KIDS-hospital-Western-Australia.html

  26. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Full Blown Revolt in Canada!

    Huge news. Small businesses will no longer complying with mandates as of Saturday, January 29 in solidarity with Freedom Convoy Canada
    https://twitter.com/KelliKieley/status/1486875397971079174

    • Rodster says:

      No surprise and it’s what I have been saying, eventually people will say enough. What is making matters worse for Trudeau is that Canadians are beginning to see that protests in Europe have paid off and governments have backed down. So it emboldens protesters in other countries, such as Canada.

      People in Canada appear to be waking up to the BS. It’s all going in the right direction.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      False Flag op?

      If they don’t prosecute might it be because they want the virus to spread … then of course when the mutation comes they have scapegoats…

      • Michael Le Merchant says:

        Something Wicked This Way Comes…

      • Artleads says:

        I also don’t see how anything close to normal could return when the energy products are so inadequate for it. Only abnormal seems to fit the moment. THEIR abnormal or somebody else’s.

  27. Michael Le Merchant says:

    WOW!!! Must listen to interview on Tucker Carlson
    https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1486879324825427972

  28. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Just a small few “fringe minority…..nothing to worry about Trudeau.

    -15,000 coming from California
    -10,000 from Michigan state
    -Over 5,000 from Ohio
    -Over 7,000 from Illinois
    -Over 10,000 from Texas
    -Over 5,000 from New York
    -Over 5,000 from Washington State
    -Over 5,000 from Florida

    • Doesn’t look good for Boris’ future.

      • Xabier says:

        Boris may well be moving on, by consent and pre-arrangement.

        Rotating the politician puppets from time to time is a good tactic – and it must be so exhausting keeping the lies up.

        People are so often taken in – for a time – by a comparatively new face once hatred has been directed at an old one.

        This is one reason why I have my suspicions about Tulsi Gabbard: too squeaky-clean….

    • Rodster says:

      I’ve read that BoJo’s title on his Wikipedia page has been repeatedly hacked from British Prime Minister to “Chief Party Planner”. 😁

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      He thought that it was a ‘work event’?!

  29. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-01-25/deaths-18-64-year-olds-40-says-indiana-life-insurance-ceo

    “Primerica also said it paid $2.1 billion in term life death claims in 2021. That’s up from $594 million in spending on death claims and other forms of term life benefits in 2020, and up from $475 million in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic began.”

    “Life insurance companies are reporting huge increases in death claims amongst 18-64 year olds versus previous years: 40% at OneAmerica, 87% at Prudential, 27% at New York Life, 12% at Pacific Life, and 80% at Pacific Life and Annuity. FIFA, the soccer league, is reporting nearly 100 cardiac incidents this year versus an average 5 for any other year.”

    correlation is not causation, but:

    causation is causation.

  30. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Ukraine Energy Profile: Important Transit Country For Supplies Of Oil And Natural Gas From Russia – Analysis
    https://www.eurasiareview.com/27012022-ukraine-energy-profile-important-transit-country-for-supplies-of-oil-and-natural-gas-from-russia-analysis/

    • This is a very good article by the US Energy Information Administration giving an overview of Ukraine’s own energy resources as well as its transit role. It was published today, so it presumably is as up-to-date as we could hope for.

  31. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Margins are increasing for Butter and Milk…
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FKJGtxUXoAYiy3Z?format=jpg&name=large

    Frozen concentrated orange juice futures
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FKJNjiFWYAMg7ST?format=jpg&name=large

    • Is this in the US?

        • Mirror on the wall says:

          dailyherd.com

          LOL

          • LOL? daiLy or dairy typo? Something about cows amusing? Dairy farming serious and difficult busyness!
            But perhaps hunter-gatherer a better way to go?

            Found this an interesting read. Has some thermo, archeology, ecology, anthropology, economics…. Think the writer is a philosophy prof. Looks like it has been around for a while. Ongoing discussion on Dr Tim Morgans blog regarding degrowth – one of his reader’s comments linked to it.

            Too Smart for our Own Good: The Ecological Predicament of Humankind

            https://read.amazon.com/kp/embed?preview=inline&linkCode=kpd&ref_=k4w_oembed_Q8dMjZIxzVcn6s&asin=052175769X&from=Bookcard&tag=kpembed-20&amazonDeviceType=A2 – CLFWBIMVSE9N&reshareId=4VZ9VCT66ST00KK60M1A&reshareChannel=system

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              I imagine that some others probably got the joke.

              ‘Something about cows amusing?’

              Probably.

              People too.

            • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

              look, a flock of cows.

              “Herd of cows.”

              sure I’ve heard of cows, there’s a flock of them over there.

            • I used to mention the book “Too Smart for our Own Good” quite a bit on Our Finite World. It is quite good. The author is Craig Dilworth. I visited his home in Sweden when I was there for other reasons. He also came to the US and visited the Atlanta area, among other places. I got together with him here as well.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              His book sounds interesting. The gist seems to be that humans have evolved a certain way and that it might have been ‘better’ (or more sustainable) if we had evolved differently, but modifications to our behaviour could still be made – it is debatable how coherent that is. It smacks of the religio-moralistic, ‘escape’ from the human condition and from impending doom through a negation of the instincts. I have come across groups like the Quakers who have emphasised ‘simplicity’, which mainly amounted to gestures like not having a fridge, which came across as a bit self-satisfied. And of course we have the whole ‘green austerity’ and ‘great reset’ agenda these days.

              Personally, I would question assumptions about whether humans are, or can be, ‘in control’ of their own destiny, whether the entire process should be conceived with present humans and their existence as some ‘goal’, whether humans are set in a present state or rather constantly transitioning in new energetic and social conditions, whether the ‘boom and bust’ of civilisations and populations is a ‘problem’ or more a normal way of how nature functions with species generally. So, I would likely frame the situation differently, and with different assumptions about what is realistic, ‘desirable’, let alone can be expected. ‘The world is a flux and all things in it – and that is not really a ‘problem’.’

            • Ed says:

              Mirror, I am a Quaker ( member of the religious society of friends ). I have a refrigerator.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Do the Quakers own the oats company by that name?

            • and you have a fondness for calling other people morons eddy

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              The Quaker theme of ‘simplicity’ had a religio-mystical emphasis, eg. ‘Simplicity is the name we give to our effort to free ourselves to give full attention to God’s still, small voice: the sum of our efforts to subtract from our lives everything that competes with God for our attention and clear hearing.’

              Britain Yearly Meeting has (supposedly) taken on simplicity as a central concern, with an emphasis on social ‘poverty’, especially global.

              It seems a bit incongruent as they historically had an ‘in the world’ emphasis and they were heavily involved (and invested) in industry (chocolate, sweets, all sort of products), banking and town construction – but they would have added ‘but not of it’ (kjv) with gives flexibility or at least supposed ‘cover’. To be fair, we are no longer in the early modern ‘optimistic’ stage.

              This statement looks a bit extreme, and to be honest a bit ‘posey’ (vain) as most of them are well off middle class types. Humans generally are ‘posey’ so I am not singling them out. The traditional Lutheran tradition would emphasis that the ‘ego’ is always at work behind ‘virtue’, and I do incline to that sort of position. _To me_ this looks like gesturing and moral posturing, pure vanity, self-importance and self-congratulation – yes, I do not really get on those types as they are very self-assured in their views and ‘virtues’, as are most humans, to be fair – global economics do not really work that way.

              https://www.quaker.org.uk/about-quakers/our-values/simplicity

              > To live simply is at the heart of the Quaker faith. Early Quakers lived simply, focusing on needs, not luxuries, so they could help tackle the poverty around them.

              Today we try not to be defined by, or depend on, possessions or the security they appear to bring. We try to live simply so we can share our resources with those who need them more than we do. We acknowledge this way of thinking is at odds with much of today’s society.

              …. Life has changed, but as Quakers we still try to live simply, aware that many in the world live more simply than we do. We constantly try to challenge the way we live and honestly assess what our real needs are. We know that our standard of living can be at the expense of others, so we try not to be caught up in materialism.

            • JMS says:

              Craig Dilworth’s book is simply AWESOME. On a pair with Catton’s Overshoot. Everyone should read it to understand how the demise of our energy-intensive civilization is inevitable.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Eddy, the oats company was never anything to do with Quakers. It is an American firm based in Chicago that cashed in on that odd branding and the American imagination – nothing to do with actual Quakers or their diets. In Britain oats still have popular associations with pre-Roman fare and the ‘Celtic fringes’, though they are also a fashionable ‘health food’ these days.

              Actual Quaker companies in Britain included all the big chocolate and confectionary companies like Cadbury of Birmingham, Rowntree’s of York, and Fry’s of Bristol. Corsets were a big thing in those days to give a thinner appearance, and dentistry was usually and painfully done at home. Banks set up by Quakers include Lloyds and Barclays.

              Britain Yearly Meeting has inherited untold property and money from the past, otherwise they likely would have shut down by now. They are reduced to about 15,000 members, and there is no way that they would otherwise maintain for decades empty or sparsely attended meeting houses. The idea that their church is characterised by poverty and simplicity is frankly laughable vanity. ‘Look at me everyone, how virtuous I am!’

              Jesus told his followers to keep their virtues to themselves, as a matter between them and God, but Quakers in Britain like to constantly trumpet their supposed ‘virtues’ to the entire world. They call it their ‘witnesses’, and they go on about themselves constantly. They claim to be guided by God on a personal and communal level, but they tend to adopt all of the latest ‘right on’ postures, and they dump their ‘witnesses’ of the past. They are completely insane, and no one takes them seriously.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I like steel cut oats… but they give me gas … M Fast does not want me to eat them

          • Mirror on the wall says:

            Hmm, I was so looking forward to an animated spat about whether it is acceptable to laugh at cows or whether they must be ‘suitably’ reverenced at all times. I had lines lined up like ‘are you even sane?’ Oh well, maybe another time.

            Anyway, the intended allusion was to humans and their media.

            Mooo.

    • Wet My Beak says:

      Dairy is one of the biggest industries in sad corrupt new zealand. There was an editorial today (behind a pay wall) in one of the abysmal MSM newspapers, The nz Herald. It was a rave by the ignorant editor about the value of the dairy industry to nz. He discussed how profitable it currently is etc.

      Well it’s only extremely profitable because the externalities are paid for by the taxpayers or ignored. nz rivers are disgusting polluted sewers and the land is largely ruined. The animals are treated abominably, many dying of stomach cancer from the fertilisers. Most of the country outside of the cities stinks of cow urine.

      Clean green nz is a marketing fantasy to sucker tourists into visiting this backward extremely violent country.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        The only reason they have dairy in NZ is because the men wanted something a little different than sheep to root. NZ men given the choice.. will also take action with something with big beefy hog hips … and when they get tired of the missus… they will take a sheep.. or a lamb…

        But a cow…OMG a Cow…. now that’s just plain delightful …

        Oh look … across the paddock… I can see the neighbour mounting up on his Cow… the wife and kids are cheering — Go Pa.. Go Pa!!! Sooo eeeeee shouts pa….

        Fast Eddy opens the window … Soooo eeee Zeke…SOOOO EEEEEEE —- Let’s Go Brandon!!!

  32. Fast Eddy says:

    UK: Pandemic of the Boosted
    No longer “pandemic of the vaccinated”

    https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/uk-pandemic-of-the-boosted

  33. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    the mRNA vaccines CAUSE cancer:

    https://twitter.com/RMConservative/status/1485960835935744003

  34. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Mordidas without end: Mexicans hand over bribes 18,500 times a day to cops, public servants

    Puebla is the worst city for prevalence of illicit handouts; CDMX is the worst state

    Mexicans pay almost 18,500 bribes per day to police officers and public servants, a new survey suggests.

    Based on the results of the most recent National Survey on Urban Public Security, the national statistics agency INEGI estimates that 2.9 million people paid some 3.4 million bribes in the second half of last year.

    The estimate equates to the payment of 771 bribes per hour or 13 per minute.

    Known in Mexico as mordidas, bribes are frequently sought by employees at government offices who deal with members of the public seeking to complete bureaucratic procedures and by police officers who have stopped people for offenses such as running a red light or drinking in the street.

    The INEGI data shows that the payment and receipt of mordidas continues to be the most ubiquitous form of corruption in Mexico.
    https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/mordidas-bribes/

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Making Mexico one of the best places to be should the NZ government become intent on jabbing Fast Eddy with their cocktail of shit

    • drb says:

      20K bribes per day is not a lot in a country of 150M people. And some of those bribes can be paid to doctors to shoot the vaccine in the sink.

  35. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Denmark will lift nearly ALL Covid restrictions within days and return to ‘life as we knew it before corona’ after vaccine programme proved a ‘super-weapon’ – DESPITE SOARING CASES
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10449063/Denmark-lift-nearly-Covid-restrictions-return-life-knew-corona.html

    • Fast Eddy says:

      ‘[The vaccine] has been superweapon. It has given us a solid defence against infection that continues.

      ‘That’s why the government decided that coronavirus should no longer be considered a threatening disease for society.’

      The move has set a precedent for other European countries to follow suit, as the Omicron Covid variant has proven to be relatively mild despite a soaring infection rate.

      Hahahahaha… this truly is… The Beginning… of The End.

      Open up —- celebrate — and Keep on Boosting (with the super vaccine!) — tell the Unvaxxed ‘I told you so!!!’ — then Die

      hahahahahahaha…. hahahaahahaha….

      I suppose they might stop laughing when the bodies pile up … but probably not … because it’s safe and nobody is dying … remember they were able to make most people believe there were massive covid deaths .. when there weren’t… 1+1 can = whatever they want it to

      hahahahahaha

      norm!!! mike!!!!!! rejoice

  36. Michael Le Merchant says:

    This Croation guy is awesome!
    https://twitter.com/mislavkolakusic/status/1486641636784357381

  37. Mirror on the wall says:

    The Daily Mail lays into ‘prince’ Andrew. The clown wants to deny and dispute each and every claim in front of a jury – let him! It should keep us all entertained for a bit. The ‘queen’ must be clutching her pearls in horror, the poor dear. And in ‘er ‘big up jubilee year’ too.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10449735/Does-help-jog-memory-sir.html

    > In court papers revealed this week, Prince Andrew said he didn’t have ‘enough information to admit or deny’ the most basic facts about him, Ghislaine Maxwell and Jeffrey Epstein. Allow us to assist!

    Does this help jog your memory?

    Prince Andrew’s formal legal response to allegations made by Virginia Roberts in her civil case against him have been described as ‘defiant.’ In his answers and ‘affirmative defences’, there are 41 straight denials and a further 40 assertions that the prince ‘lacks sufficient information’ to admit or deny other claims she makes. Amid incredulity at some of the responses, legal experts have questioned the wisdom of the prince’s insistence of a trial by jury which they suggested may be a bluff ‘to buy time’. While Buckingham Palace is declining to comment on the prince’s tactics, the royal fights to clear his name as a ‘private citizen’ after being stripped of his royal privileges. In the US, lawyers said Andrew was gambling on ‘an incredibly risky strategy’, but sources close to the prince insisted he was entitled to defend himself when accused of ‘such heinous crimes’. Among the claims under examination is the photograph of him and Virginia Roberts (left), pictures of him and Maxwell attending social events together (top centre), flight logs where he is named flying with Epstein on his private plane (top right), questions into if he invited Epstein to his daughter Beatrice’s birthday party (centre), whether he knew Epstein was a registered sex offender during his visit to him in New York (centre right and bottom, second from left) and an alleged email exchange between the prince and Ghislaine Maxwell (bottom right).

  38. Fast Eddy says:

    Trudeau isolates after being exposed to someone with COVID

    https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/trudeau-isolates-exposed-covid-82510764

    ‘someone’….

    Coward. He’s in his bedroom crying… wanker

    https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2016/12/07/09/justintrudeaucrying.jpg

    • Azure Kingfisher says:

      Hilarious. An attempt to garner sympathy while going into hiding as the “Freedom Convoy” descends on Ottawa.

  39. Michael Le Merchant says:

    It was not expected that the US trucks would be able to cross the border but they did!

    Now 12k trucks move towards Ottawa to join the Freedom Convoy.
    https://twitter.com/SaiKate108/status/1486599739303161862

    • Fast Eddy says:

      The Immaculate Traffic Jam.

      I wonder what the CovIDIOTS think of this …

      • MM says:

        You wrote “think”. Can you please explain that letter garbage to me? Looks like a typo or a keyboard error to me.
        I just want to help you correct an error!

  40. Mirror on the wall says:

    Biden reckons that USA could arrange to make up any shortage of gas in Europe if Russia stops sending it through in response to sanctions after a conflict in Ukraine – but that seems to be questionable. Does he even really care if Europe has no gas, or is it what he wants?

    It looks like Europe is being set up for a fall here – UK anti-tank missiles are liable to get Ukrainian cities levelled, and Europe is liable to be starved of gas. It remains to be seen whether Europe can resist that outcome. Europe needs to be very careful of UK and USA.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/could-more-lng-supplies-get-europe-event-crisis-2022-01-25/

    > Explainer: Could more LNG supplies get to Europe in the event of a crisis?

    …. There is not enough LNG to substitute for a large disruption in supply from Russia, the primary exporter to Europe via pipeline.

    IS IT POSSIBLE TO FIND MORE SUPPLY?

    It would be difficult because the world’s largest LNG exporters are already producing as much as they can of the gas that is super-cooled into a liquid form for transportation. Such an effort would have to involve rerouting vessels already on the water or ready for departure.

    …. However, buyers typically only have discretion to reroute a small number of cargoes as most are to supply gas to power plants and industry on long-term contracts.

    …. WHY CAN’T THE U.S AND OTHER EXPORTERS JUST SEND MORE GAS?

    Exporting gas on vessels is not as easy as filling a tanker with crude oil. Building new gas liquefaction facilities generally takes two to four years.

    There is only one facility under construction in the United States that could add more liquefaction capacity this year – Venture Global LNG’s Calcasieu Pass in Louisiana, which analysts expect could add about 0.9 bcfd by year-end.

    The three biggest producers of LNG in 2021 were Australia at around 10.5 bcfd, Qatar at 10.1 bcfd and the United States at 9.8 bcfd, accounting for more than half of global supply. They are all exporting at or near capacity.

    • I would agree. There is no way that Europe is going to find enough natural gas elsewhere to make up any shortfall in supply.

    • Lastcall says:

      Political hot air should be enough to keep things going. Otherwise the pile of bullshite on legacy media could be a never ending methane source.

    • Student says:

      The scenario is very similar to the one described by Ugo Bardi in the below article, where he speaks about the situation during 1920s in Italy and its reaction against UK.
      At the moment in fact Europe wants to close North Stream II (instead of buying gas) and it is sending weapons and troops to Ukraine.
      From psychological point of view it must be a mix of delirium of omnipotence and sadomasochism.
      But evidently it must be something inevitable.

      https://thesenecaeffect.blogspot.com/2022/01/how-to-keep-gasoline-prices-low-by.html

  41. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Goodbye Crypto!

    White House Wants Crypto Rules as a Matter of National Security

    The Biden administration is preparing to release an executive action that will task federal agencies with regulating digital assets such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as a matter of national security, a person familiar with the White House’s plan tells Barron’s.

    The national security memorandum, expected to come in the next few weeks, would task parts of the government with analyzing digital assets and assembling a regulatory framework that covers cryptos, stablecoins, and NFTs, or non-fungible tokens, this person said.

    “This is designed to look holistically at digital assets and develop a set of policies that give coherency to what the government is trying to do in this space,” the person said.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/white-house-executive-action-regulate-cryptos-national-security-51643312454

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I wonder how many were continuing to buy at 60k believing the 500k story…

      Keep in mind they may have bought at 20k believing the 50k story — because they believe.. the story.. and they are in a cult ..

      I was urged to buy at least one BC a few months back when it was 60k… by someone knee deep … so surely he was buying more at that level too.

      I doubt the Crypto Cultists are selling … hope springs eternal… they are likely buying the dip actually…

      Anyone notice that FB has abandoned their crypto?

      ZERO is a nice round number 🙂

      • it will probably cause you the choke on your breakfast eddy

        but i wrote this over 3 years ago

        https://end-of-more.medium.com/the-myths-of-crypto-currency-f5dea863d116

        • Fast Eddy says:

          We’d prefer you focus on helping us understand the situation in Israel norm…

          Apply your incredible ability to interpret data to that … if you don’t mind

        • Norman,

          Very fine crypto currency article. Excerpts:

          When fuel availability and/or use decreases, employment declines in lockstep and the value of currency falls. If this continues over time, commercial infrastructure and entire civilisations collapse. When (not if) our energy systems fail, billionaire bitcoiners will not be able to exchange their bitcoins for a loaf of bread.

          Also:

          The sustainability of any such scheme is based on sufficient monies being paid in at the bottom tiers, and kept there to enable those at the top to get out early with a hefty profit. If everyone bails at once, the result is panic; all ‘value’ evaporates and the pyramid collapses.

  42. Student says:

    Sweden has decided against recommending COVID vaccines for kids aged 5-11, the Health Agency said on Thursday, arguing that the benefits did not outweigh the risks.
    “With the knowledge we have today, with a low risk for serious disease for kids, we don’t see any clear benefit with vaccinating them,” Health Agency official Britta Bjorkholm told a news conference.

    https://news.yahoo.com/sweden-decides-against-recommending-covid-142233166.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

  43. HerbHere says:

    Gail, I don’t think I’ve seen your actuarial take on the claimed 40% increase in covered life insurance claims, by the CEO of OneAmerica Life based in Indiana. Could it be?

    https://www.thewealthadvisor.com/article/life-insurance-deaths-40-dr-robert-malones-chilling-analysis?mkt_tok=NDQ2LVVIUy0wMTMAAAGCO_nMZEQ7bqO1Gl0xGLx6blIOsW1sXyt-GfxOtrMfCKs7aOJbGKhJsT0B-JM_-aoxMYX6m7xy5V3cAEh2giwPebsOcjIq2Mjk-OAJAmlsg6f7

    • If you read the article, it says

      “deaths are up 40% in the third quarter of 2021. These deaths are primarily non-COVID deaths among workers aged 18 through 64.”

      One place to look at US mortality trends for a somewhat similar age group is from this report:

      https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

      Scroll down to the chart called “Excess mortality: Deaths from all causes compared to projections for previous years, by age.” (Add the United States to the chart, if it is not shown.) Look at the portion for Ages 15-64. It is clear that there is a green “hump” that exceeds 50%, for a period that is somewhat around the third quarter of 2021. So I think the 40% excess deaths statement is reasonable.

      The statement likely wouldn’t be true for other age groups. If you compare the shape of humps, it is clear that the Age 15-64 group is relatively worse than the others during this time period.

      The Age 0-14 grouping is consistently low.

      The three older groups (Ages 65-74; Ages 75-84; Ages 85+) all had very high humps, about the second quarter of 2020, when the virus first came around. By the third quarter of 2021, these groups all had been significantly immunized. The combination of the early die off and the vaccinations of these age groups led to much lower die offs in the third quarter of 2021. In fact, there is close to no excess mortality in the “Ages 85+” by that time period.

  44. Yoshua says:

    US natural gas futures for February spike to 7 dollars

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FKIdHZxXoAQBnJj?format=png&name=900×900

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      and then falls a little to 5.90 which is still way way up.

      up up and away!

      baby it’s cold outside!

      War, huh yeah, what is it good for?

      and I think to myself, what a wonderful world.

    • I have a fixed rate for my natural gas (for home heating, including hot water), and I expect quite a few other people do, as well.

      To the extent that customers have guaranteed fixed rates, the spike in prices acts to wipe out the profitability of the companies selling the natural gas. It is even possible that some of them could go bankrupt, if the price bounces high enough, long enough. If these companies go bankrupt, we would have a similar problem to the UK, where some of the suppliers have gone bankrupt.

  45. Fast Eddy says:

    Hahaha… the video is great https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/canada-the-talking-points-vs-the/comments

    Excellent Double Speak … a totalitarian state preserves our freedoms and rights as a country hahahahha….

    But keep in mind … he is only trying to prevent Ripping of Faces….

    Why doesn’t he just say – a totalitarian state is what is required as we enter the acute phase of the energy bottleneck and attempt to exterminate everyone to prevent mass murder, rape, and cannibalism.

    hahahaha… can you imagine! Can You Imagine (CYI).

    Nobody wants that truth … nobody…. they could not handle it… there would be mass insanity…

    Even here on OFW — most will not accept the CEP … even though we are all have PHDs in Peak Oil… even though we know we are down to the Energy Nitty Gritty… even though we know about Seneca… even though we know BAU has been on the verge of total collapse for 2+ years now…. even though we are about to inject babies (3x)….

    Most will not accept that killing us … is the best option.

    If the truth does not play well on OFW… it most certainly will not go over with the General MOREONS of the world…

    Remember the leak – when Troodough said — the decision is final — it is not up for discussion — it is in the interests of everyone to accept the policy….

    He meant it. And he is correct. Nobody wants to be standing when BAU goes… it is best to be gone before that happens…

    Any country that is making Ivermectin available to their citizens is doing them a disserve… they are committing crimes against humanity

    • I notice one of the comments starts:

      I think one of the greatest failings of C19 is not the vaccines, not the lock-downs, not the stupidity and ineptitude.

      It’s our leaders unwillingness to admit they made mistakes.

      People are starting to see that the vaccines aren’t working very well.

      Another comment was:

      The little shitweasel just claimed he’s been exposed to someone who was tested positive for covid. He says that he has tested negative but needs to isolate for 5 days. He’s supposed to meet with the truckers in 2 days, so I guess he thinks he just got himself off the hook. Think again. He’s triple vaxxed, so I guess he now doesn’t believe in the vaccine.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Too late for that … billions are jacked up on the poisons… and now they are being unleashed and spreading their disease…

        I like to watch – Israel (TM)

Comments are closed.