2022: Energy limits are likely to push the world economy into recession

In my view, there are three ways a growing economy can be sustained:

  1. With a growing supply of cheap-to-produce energy products, matched to the economy’s energy needs.
  2. With growing debt and other indirect promises of future goods and services, such as rising asset prices.
  3. With growing complexity, such as greater mechanization of processes and supply lines that extend around the world.

All three of these approaches are reaching limits. The empty shelves some of us have been seeing recently are testimony to the fact that complexity is reaching a limit. And the growth in debt looks increasingly like a bubble that can easily be popped, perhaps by rising interest rates.

In my view, the first item listed is critical at this time: Is the supply of cheap-to-produce energy products growing fast enough to keep the world economy operating and the debt bubble inflated? My analysis suggests that it is not. There are two parts to this problem:

[a] The cost of producing fossil fuels and delivering them to where they are needed is rising rapidly because of the effects of depletion. This higher cost cannot be passed on to customers, without causing recession. Politicians will act to keep prices low for the benefit of consumers. Ultimately, these low prices will lead to falling production because of inadequate reinvestment to offset depletion.

[b] Non-fossil fuel energy products are not living up to the expectations of their developers. They are not available when they are needed, where they are needed, at a low enough cost for customers. Electricity prices don’t rise high enough to cover their true cost of production. Subsidies for wind and solar tend to drive nuclear electricity out of business, leaving an electricity situation that is worse, rather than better. Rolling blackouts can be expected to become an increasing problem.

In this post, I will explore the energy-related issues that are contributing to the recessionary trends that the world economy is facing, starting later in 2022.

[1] World oil supplies are unlikely to rise very rapidly in 2022 because of depletion and inadequate reinvestment. Even if oil prices rise higher in the first part of 2022, this action cannot offset years of underinvestment.

Figure 1. Crude oil and liquids production quantities through 2020 based on EIA data. “IEA Estimate” adds IEA indicated increases in 2021 and 2022 to historical EIA liquids estimates. Tverberg Estimate relates to crude oil production.

The IEA, in its Oil Market Report, December 2021, forecasts a 6.4-million-barrel increase in world oil production in 2022 over 2021. Indications through September of 2021 strongly suggest that there was only a small rebound (about 1 million bpd) in the world’s oil production in 2021 compared to 2020. In my view, the IEA’s view that liquids production will increase by a huge 6.4 million barrels a day between 2021 and 2022 defies common sense.

The basic reason why oil production is low is because oil prices have been too low for producers since about 2012. Companies have had to cut back on developing new fields in higher cost areas because oil prices have not been high enough to justify such investments. For example, producers from shale formations could add new wells outside the rapidly depleting “core” regions if the oil price were much higher, perhaps $120 to $150 per barrel. But US WTI oil prices averaged only $57 per barrel in 2019, $39 per barrel in 2020, and $68 per barrel in 2021, so this new investment has not been started.

Recently, oil prices have been over $80 per barrel, but even this is considered too high by politicians. For example, countries are releasing oil from their strategic oil reserves to try to force oil prices down. The reason why politicians are interested in low oil prices is because if the price of oil rises, both the price of food and the cost of commuting are likely to rise, since oil is used in farming and in commuting. Inflation is likely to become a problem, making citizens unhappy. Wages will go less far, and politicians who allow high oil prices will be voted out of office.

[2] Natural gas production can be expected to rise by 1.6% in 2022, but this small increase will not be enough to meet the needs of the world economy.

Figure 2. Natural gas production though 2020 based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. For 2020 and 2021, Tverberg estimates reflect increases similar to IEA indications, so only one indication is shown.

With natural gas production growing at a little less than 2% per year, a major issue is that there is not enough natural gas to “go around.” Natural gas is the smallest of the fossil fuels in quantity. We are depending on its growth to solve many problems, simultaneously:

  • To increase natural gas imports for countries whose own production is declining
  • To provide quick relief from inadequate production by wind turbines and solar panels, whenever such relief is needed
  • To offset declining coal consumption related to a combination of issues (depletion, high pollution, climate change concerns)
  • To help increase world electricity supply, as transportation and other processes are gradually electrified

Furthermore, the rate at which natural gas supply increases cannot easily be speeded up because (a) the development of new fields, (b) the development of transportation structures (pipeline or Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) ships), and (c) the development of storage facilities all require major upfront expenditures. All of these must be planned years in advance. They require huge amounts of resources of many kinds. The selling price of natural gas must be high enough to cover all of the resource and labor costs. For those familiar with the concept of Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI), the basic problem is that the delivered EROEI falls too low when all of the many parts of the system are considered.

Storage is extremely important for natural gas because fluctuations tend to occur in the quantity of natural gas the overall system requires. For example, if stored natural gas is available, it can be used when wind turbines are not producing enough electricity. Also, a huge amount of energy is needed in winter to keep homes warm and to keep the lights on. If sufficient natural gas can be stored for months at a time, it can help provide this additional energy.

As a gas, natural gas is difficult to store. In practice, underground caverns are used for storage, assuming caverns of the right type are available. Trying to build storage, if such caverns are not available, is almost certainly an expensive undertaking. In theory, importing natural gas by pipeline or LNG can transfer the storage problem to LNG producers. This is not a satisfactory solution, however. Without adequate storage available to sellers, this means that natural gas can be extracted for only part of the year and LNG ships can only be used for part of the year. As a result, return on investment is likely to be poor.

Now, in 2022, we are hitting the issue of very slowly rising natural gas production head-on in many parts of the world. Countries that import natural gas without long-term contracts are facing spiking prices. Countries in Europe and Asia are especially affected. The United States has mostly been isolated from the spiking prices thanks to producing its own natural gas. Also, only a small portion of the natural gas produced by the US is exported (9% in 2020).

The reason for the small export percentage is because shipping natural gas as LNG tends to be very expensive. Long-distance LNG shipping only makes economic sense if there is a several dollar (or more) price differential between the buyer’s price and the seller’s costs that can be used to cover the high transport costs.

We now seem to be reaching a period of spiking natural gas prices, especially for countries importing natural gas without long-term contracts. If natural gas prices rise, this will tend to make electricity prices rise because natural gas is often burned to produce electricity. Products made with high-priced electricity will be less competitive in a world market. Individual citizens will become unhappy with their high cost of heat and light.

High natural gas prices can have very adverse consequences. In areas with high prices, products made using natural gas as a raw material will tend to be squeezed out. One such product is urea, used as a nitrogen fertilizer. With less nitrogen fertilizer available, food production is likely to fall. If food prices rise in response to short supply, consumers will tend to reduce discretionary spending to ensure that there are sufficient funds for food. A reduction in discretionary spending is one way recession starts.

Inadequate growth in world natural gas production can be expected to hit poor countries especially hard. For example, a recent article mentions LNG suppliers backing out of planned deliveries of LNG to Pakistan, given the high prices available elsewhere. Another article indicates that Kosovo, a poor country in Europe, is experiencing rolling blackouts. Eventually, if natural gas available for export remains limited in supply, electricity blackouts can be expected to spread more widely, to less poor parts of Europe and around the world.

[3] World coal production can be expected to decline, further pushing the world economy toward recession.

Figure 3 shows my estimate for world coal production, next to a recent IEA forecast.

Figure 3. Coal production through 2020 based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. “IEA Estimate” adds IEA indicated increases to historical BP coal quantities. Tverberg Estimate provides lower estimates for 2021 and 2022, considering depletion issues.

Figure 3 shows that world coal consumption has not been rising for about a decade.

Coal seems to be having the same problem with rising costs as oil. The cost of producing the coal is rising because of depletion, but citizens cannot afford to pay more for end products made with coal, such as electricity, steel and solar panels. Coal producers need higher prices to cover their higher costs, but it becomes increasingly difficult to pass these higher costs on to consumers. This is because politicians want to keep electricity prices low to keep their citizens and businesses happy.

If the cost of electricity rises, the cost of goods made with high-priced electricity will tend to rise. Businesses will find their sales falling in response to higher prices. In turn, they will tend to lay off workers. This is a recipe for recession, but a slightly different one than the ones mentioned earlier. It also is a good way for politicians not to get re-elected. As a result, politicians will try to hide rising coal costs from customers. For example, laws may be enacted capping electricity prices that can be charged to customers. Because of this, some electricity companies may be forced out of business.

The decrease in coal production I am showing for 2022 is only 1%, but when this small reduction is combined with the growth problems shown for coal and oil and the rising world population, it means that world coal supplies will be stretched.

China is the world’s largest coal producer and consumer. A major concern is that the country has serious coal depletion problems. It has experienced rolling blackouts since the fall of 2020. It has tried to encourage its own production by limiting coal imports, thus keeping wholesale coal prices high for local producers. It also limits the extent to which high coal costs can be passed on to electricity customers. As a result, the 2021 profits of electricity companies are expected to be reduced.

[4] The US may have some untapped coal resources that could be tapped, if there is a plan to ship more natural gas to Europe and other areas in need of the fuel.

The possibility of additional US coal production occurs because coal production in the US seems to have occurred because of competition from incredibly inexpensive natural gas (Figure 4). To some extent, this low natural gas price results from laws prohibiting oil and gas companies from “flaring” (burning off) natural gas that is too expensive to produce relative to the price it can be sold for. Prohibitions against flaring are a type of mandated subsidy of natural gas production by the oil-producing portion of “Oil & Gas” companies. This required subsidy leads to part of the need for high oil prices, especially for companies drilling in shale formations.

Figure 4. US coal production amounts through 2020 are from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. Amounts for 2021 and 2022 are estimated based on forecasts from EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook. Natural gas prices are average annual Henry Hub spot prices per million Btus, based on EIA data.

A major reason why US coal extraction started to decline about 2009 is because a very large amount of shale gas production started becoming available then as a byproduct of oil production from shale. Oil producers were primarily interested in extracting oil because it (hopefully) sold for a high price. Natural gas was a byproduct whose collection was barely economic, given its low selling price. Also, the economy didn’t have uses, such as trucks powered by natural gas, for all of this extra natural gas production. Figure 4 suggests that wholesale natural gas prices dropped by close to half, in response to this extra supply.

With these low natural gas prices, as well as coal pollution concerns, a significant amount of US electricity production was switched from coal to natural gas. It is my view that this change left coal in the ground, potentially for later use. Thus, if natural gas prices rise again, US coal production could perhaps rise again. The catch, of course, is that many coal-fired electricity-generating plants in the US have been taken out of service. In addition, coal mines have been closed. Any increase in future coal production would likely take place very slowly because of the need for many simultaneous changes.

[5] On a combined basis, using Tverberg Estimates for 2021 and 2022, fossil fuel production in total takes a step down in 2020 and doesn’t rise much in 2021 and 2022.

Figure 5. Sum of Tverberg Estimates related to oil, coal, and natural gas. Oil includes natural gas liquids but not biofuels. Historical amounts are from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Figure 5 shows that on a combined basis, the overall energy being provided by fossil fuels is likely to remain lower in 2021 and 2022 than it was in 2018 and 2019. This is concerning, because the economy cannot go back to its 2019 level of “openness” and optional travel for sightseers, without a big step up in energy supply, especially for oil.

This same figure shows that the production of the three fossil fuels is somewhat similar in quantity: Oil is the highest, coal is second, and natural gas comes in third. However, oil shows a step down in 2020’s production from which it has not recovered. Coal shows a smoother pattern of rise and eventual fall. So far, natural gas has mostly been rising, but not very steeply in recent years.

[6] Alternatives to fossil fuels are not living up to early expectations. Electricity from wind turbines and solar panels is not available when it is needed, requiring a great deal of back-up electricity generated by fossil fuels or nuclear. The total quantity of non-fossil fuel electricity is far too low. A transition now will simply lead to electricity blackouts and recession.

Figure 6 shows a summary of non-fossil fuel energy production for the years 2000 through 2020, without a projection to 2022. For clarification, wind and solar are part of the electrical renewables category.

Figure 6. World energy production for various categories, based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Figure 6 shows that nuclear electricity production has been declining at the same time that the production of electrical renewables has been increasing. In fact, a significant decrease in nuclear electricity is planned in Europe in 2022. This reduction in nuclear electricity is part of what is causing the concern about electricity supply for Europe for 2022.

The addition of wind and solar to an electrical grid seems to encourage the closure of nuclear electricity plants, even if they have many years of safe production still ahead of them. This happens because wind and solar are given the subsidy of “going first,” if they happen to have electricity available. Wind and solar may also be subsidized in other ways.

The net result of this arrangement is that wholesale electricity prices set through competitive markets quite frequently fall too low for other electricity producers (apart from wind and solar). For example, wind and solar electricity that is produced during weekends may be unneeded because many businesses are closed. Electricity produced by wind and solar in the spring and fall may be unneeded because heating and cooling needs tend to be low at these times of the year. Wind and solar electricity providers are not asked to cut back supply because their production is unneeded; instead, low (or negative) prices encourage other electricity producers to cut back supply.

Nuclear electricity producers are particularly adversely affected by this pricing arrangement because they cannot save money by cutting back their output when wind and solar are over-producing electricity, relative to demand. This strange pricing arrangement leads to unacceptably low profits for many nuclear electricity providers. They may voluntarily choose to be closed. Local governments find that if they want to keep their nuclear electricity producers, they need to subsidize them.

Wind and solar, with their subsidies, tend to look more profitable to investors, even though they cannot support the economy without a substantial amount of supplementary electricity production from other electricity providers, which, perversely, they are driving out of business through their subsidized pricing structure.

The fact that wind and solar cannot be depended upon has become increasingly obvious in recent months, as coal, natural gas and electricity prices have spiked in Europe because of low wind production. In theory, coal and natural gas imports should make up the shortfall, at a reasonable price. But total volumes available for import have not been increasing in the quantities that consumers need them to increase. And, as mentioned above, nuclear electricity production is increasingly unavailable as well.

[7] The total quantity of non-fossil fuel energy supplies is not very large, relative to the quantity of fossil fuel energy. Even if these non-fossil fuel energy supplies increase at a trend rate similar to that in the recent past, they do not make up for the projected fossil fuel production deficit.

Figure 7. Total energy production, based on the fossil fuel estimates in Figure 5 together with non-fossil fuels in Figure 6.

With respect to anticipated future non-fossil fuel electricity generation, one issue is how much nuclear is being shut off. I would imagine these current closure schedules could change, if countries become aware that they may be facing rolling blackouts without nuclear.

A second issue is the growing awareness that renewables don’t really work as intended. Why add more if they don’t really work?

A third issue is new studies suggesting that prices being paid for locally generated electricity may be too generous. Based on such an analysis, California is proposing a major reduction to its payments for renewable-generated electricity, starting July 1, 2022. This type of change could reduce new installations of solar panels on homes in California. Other locations may decide to make similar changes.

I have shown two estimates of future non-fossil fuel energy supply in Figure 7. The high estimate reflects a 4.5% annual increase in the total supply, in line with recent past increases for the group in total. The lower one assumes that 2021 production is similar to that in 2020 (because of more nuclear being closed, for example). Production for 2022 represents a 5% decrease from 2021’s production.

Regardless of which assumption is made, growth in non-fossil fuel electricity supply is not very important in the overall total. The world economy is still mostly powered by fossil fuels. The share of non-fossil fuels relative to total energy ranges from 16% to 18% in 2020, based on my low and high estimates.

[8] The energy narrative we are being told is mostly the narrative that politicians would like us to believe, rather than the narrative that historians and physicists would develop.

Politicians would like us to believe that we live in a world of everlasting economic growth and that the only thing we should fear is climate change. They base their analyses on models by economists who seem to think that an “invisible hand” will fix all problems. The economy can always grow; enough fossil fuels and other resources will always be available. Governments seem to be able to print money; somehow, this money will be transformed into physical goods and services. With these assumptions, the only problems are distant ones that central banks and carbon taxes can handle.

The realists are historians and physicists. They tell us that a huge number of past economies have collapsed when their populations attempted to grow at the same time that their resource bases were depleting. These realists tell us that there is a high probability that our current economy will eventually collapse, as well.

Figure 8. The Seneca Cliff by Ugo Bardi

The general shape that economic growth is likely to take is that of a “Seneca Curve” or “Seneca Cliff.” In the words of Lucius Annaeus Seneca in the first century CE, “Increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.” If we think of the amount graphed as the total quantity of goods and services received by citizens, the amount tends to rise slowly, gradually plateaus and then falls.

We now seem to be encountering lower energy supply while population continues to rise. It takes energy for any activity that we think of as contributing to GDP to occur. We should not be surprised if we are at the edge of a recession. If we cannot get our energy problems solved, the downturn could be very long-lasting.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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4,903 Responses to 2022: Energy limits are likely to push the world economy into recession

  1. system error

    on economics and capitalism, worth watching if you can access it

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/End-More-resources-humankind-unsustainable-ebook/dp/B00D0ADPFY

  2. Michael Le Merchant says:

    The worlds longest convoy has turned into the worlds longest traffic jam in Ottawa, Canada.
    https://twitter.com/JannerDarren/status/1487440152821739523

  3. Something few people realize is the elites, eventually, have no intention to tolerate the poorer crowd.

    They don’t need non-elite humans.

    The Toba volcano explosion about 70,000 years ago reduced human pop to less than 10,000 and humans came back. So they already have a number of minimum number of humans to come back

    If the rest die, too bad.

    As collapse heightens, everyone will be inclined to move up to higher ground. Most people will perish and only the elites, who can be less than 10,000 total, will escape without any regard for the rest.

    • CTG says:

      The Toba volcano explosion about 70,000 years ago reduced human pop to less than 10,000 and humans came back. So they already have a number of minimum number of humans to come back

      Think hard. 10,0000 people spread over the entire globe. What are the chances of you finding mate ? It is just not possible ….it did not happen

      • You need the 10,000 in one area. The spread can come later.

        • NomadicBeer says:

          Correction: you need tribes of Dunbar-size (150 people) roaming a large area with rare contact with others.

          Population density for a large predator (which humans are in energetic terms) is less than 1 per 10 square miles – hence the requirements for nomadism so tribes can meet and exchange genes (and arrows presumably).

    • I think you are pretty much right.

      It is the poorer people who will be “frozen” out. I expect that those who aren’t contributing much will be frozen out, as well. These might be the nursing home population and the elite who depends on a handful of daily drugs to keep them alive.

      • Dennis L. says:

        I am not so sure; we are biological entities; the environment changes and we adapt. There is always a trait at a given time that causes some to rise to the top of the hierarchy, but it varies with the time.

        Rewatched “Vikings” an Amazon series. The kings took huge personal risks, most of them perished early, they lived on through multiple children in some case with multiple wives. Too much time as a warrior leads to an almost certainty of death from other than natural causes.

        There is a time to live, there is a time to pass. Our marvelous medical system has given some of us precious additional years, it is also a burden probably not part of the overall, biological evolution upon which we are based. Nature corrects errors, she does not generally predict winners.

        It is a changing era, for some of us what we have spent our lives achieving will soon become of little value, for some skills and luck will be of increasing value. Predicting which is a fool’s game, being an optimist that some will do well and working to achieve a good mix of skills might just work. We have to believe, or it is all nihilism.

        Dennis L.

    • Rodster says:

      The problem with the Modern Elite is that they are too techno lazy and domesticated. They have needed the poor and hard workers in order to become the Elite Class. The Elite have no idea how to farm and gather. They just use the Plebs to create their wealth and get them to do the work for them. The Elite are not like they used to be when life was hard thousands of years ago. Today it’s Amazon, Netflix and Bitcoin and Door Dash.

      How are the Elite supposed to cultivate land and grow food when they became the Elite Class by giving orders to the hardworking Plebs who did the work for them? Unless they have stashed a 150 yrs of food in their bunkers, eventually it will run out, then what?

      • JonF says:

        Exactly…..I don’t see how current winners (nerds/talking heads)….
        ……continue to be winners….in a post energy cliff world….where physical hardiness is a must….

        “Survival of the best adapted”

      • drb says:

        Feudalism, same as it was at the end of the Roman Empire.

        • Student says:

          It is important to remember that between the end of the Roman emperor and the beginning of feudalism (of the middle age) there was the very traumatic period of the barbarian invasions.
          That critic period lasted about 300 years.
          But at end of the barbaric invasions the situation didn’t became calm immediately, it was necessary to reach around 800 A.D. to have feudalism.
          Maybe the élite wants to avoid that long period, but it will probably happen anyway.
          In Italy there is a way of saying which can be translated like this: “history does not repeat itself but sometimes it rhymes with itself”

          https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasioni_barbariche

          https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feudalesimo

          • Herbie Ficklestein says:

            The Ancient city of Rome had a population of over 0ne million in it’s day and was fed by importing food from North Africa and Egypt with a yearly festival celebration it’s arrival in the port of Ostia. Ruins of the storage building are still visible today. Actually, in order to maintain it’s living standard it pre BAU industrial world. The Native Romans pretty much took over the Mediterranean world. After collapse, the city of Rome consisted

            After the Sack of Rome and the fall of the Western Roman Empire in 476 AD, Rome’s population dropped from 1 million to just 500,000 in 273 and then again to 35,000 during the Early Middle Ages.

            Well. As Gail has pointed out again and again this will likely happen..thank you Gail🥳❤️. Are you ready to Party Rumble!?

            • JesseJames says:

              Since we are talking energy here, the typical view of Rome is that it became a welfare state. That it did, but that is not the prime reason for Rome handing out bread. With a population of 1M people there was no way to heat and cook meals unless you were wealthy, since there was no wood supply. So Rome resorted to bakeries that would bake the bread and the distribute it. This way, only the bakery needed wood for cooking. No one else had any.

            • yes Rome was a welfare state, (hence bread and circuses) effectively supported by the extermal energy resources of free wheat from North Africa, and aqueducts built by slave labour.

              We support ourselves on free external energy resources.

              we are in just as weak a position

          • Mirror on the wall says:

            Student, my knowledge of Italy is sketchy, but the impression that I have is that the barbarians became the new elites. Is there any evidence for the survival of the earlier Roman elites as elites in the later period?

            In Britain, the Romans were the elites, and then the Anglo-Saxons invaded and they became the elites, and then the Normans. It seems to have been a matter of ‘whoever could seize and hold power had it’, and there was a lot of churn and replacement.

            The Normans were warrior knights who constantly usurped each other. There was no modern centralised army to stop that, and the king was happy enough with it – if the new warlord was better at fighting than the old, then all well and good, so long as he fights for the king when called upon.

            The post-collapse future will be one of profound instability, and as you say, it is difficult to predict any continuity in elites.

            • Student says:

              It is an interesting consideration.
              Yes, they became the new élite, but they also fuse themselves with the old élite and took some of the habits and sometime the religion of the old élite.
              But we have to remember the religion of the old élite was actually a new one, because Christianity had just emerged in contrast with the Pagan old Roman religion.
              So it could happen that in Europe the new religion will be Islam.
              Actually I’m so tired and I’m so disgusted by our current rulers that I welcome any change from whatever direction.
              I see as a very positive thing that our immigrants will become such a big community that they will elect their own politicians.
              I don’t know if they will be better, but for sure they will be different and so we will see at least another kind of sh.#

          • drb says:

            This is not entirely correct. The laws were in place before 476BC, as debtors would become bound to the land they tilled for the owners. It was a centuries long process, as you say, which became complete under Charlemagne. They are trying to do the same in a couple of generations now. What could go wrong?

    • drb says:

      So are we supposed to believe that in only 70,000 years a small group of survivors became the Vikings, the pygmys, the Bantus, the Chinese, and the middle eastern people? I find it hard to believe it. Not enough evolutionary time.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        A global human population bottleneck around that time does seem to be supported by the genetic evidence, although there may be other ways to interpret that data, and Toba has been proposed as the context.

        As I understand it, the dominant archaeogenetic paradigm is that all Eurasians are mainly descended from a single population that left Africa about 70,000-50,000 years ago, and all of the genotypical and phenotypical differences in Eurasia have evolved since then. There were earlier expansions of anatomically modern humans out of Africa earlier than that but they seem to have mainly died out. There was also admixture with other ‘archaic’ hominid species. Evolution would also have continued in Africa, and all Africans have West Eurasian admixture, bar the Pygmies who were the most isolated from other African populations.

        So, a Toba bottleneck may initially seem counterintuitive, but it may be the case nevertheless – or not. It is all still up for debate.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory

        > …. The Youngest Toba eruption has been linked to a genetic bottleneck in human evolution about 70,000 years ago,[31][32] which may have resulted in a severe reduction in the size of the total human population due to the effects of the eruption on the global climate.[33] According to the genetic bottleneck theory, between 50,000 and 100,000 years ago, human populations sharply decreased to 3,000–10,000 surviving individuals.[34][35] It is supported by some genetic evidence suggesting that today’s humans are descended from a very small population of between 1,000 and 10,000 breeding pairs that existed about 70,000 years ago.[36][37]

        Proponents of the genetic bottleneck theory (including Robock) suggest that the Youngest Toba eruption resulted in a global ecological disaster, including destruction of vegetation along with severe drought in the tropical rainforest belt and in monsoonal regions. A 10-year volcanic winter triggered by the eruption could have largely destroyed the food sources of humans and caused a severe reduction in population sizes.[18] These environmental changes may have generated population bottlenecks in many species, including hominids;[38] this in turn may have accelerated differentiation from within the smaller human population. Therefore, the genetic differences among modern humans may reflect changes within the last 70,000 years, rather than gradual differentiation over hundreds of thousands of years.[39]

        Other research has cast doubt on a link between the Toba Caldera Complex and a genetic bottleneck. For example, ancient stone tools in southern India were found above and below a thick layer of ash from the Youngest Toba eruption and were very similar across these layers, suggesting that the dust clouds from the eruption did not wipe out this local population.[40][41][42] Additional archaeological evidence from southern and northern India also suggests a lack of evidence for effects of the eruption on local populations, leading the authors of the study to conclude, “many forms of life survived the supereruption, contrary to other research which has suggested significant animal extinctions and genetic bottlenecks”.[43] However, evidence from pollen analysis has suggested prolonged deforestation in South Asia, and some researchers have suggested that the Toba eruption may have forced humans to adopt new adaptive strategies, which may have permitted them to replace Neanderthals and “other archaic human species”.[44][45]

        Additional caveats include difficulties in estimating the global and regional climatic impacts of the eruption and lack of conclusive evidence for the eruption preceding the bottleneck.[46] Furthermore, genetic analysis of Alu sequences across the entire human genome has shown that the effective human population size was less than 26,000 at 1.2 million years ago; possible explanations for the low population size of human ancestors may include repeated population bottlenecks or periodic replacement events from competing Homo subspecies.[47]

      • Oddys says:

        Agree. There is still very much to learn from Richard L Thompson and Michael Cremo. They had a very tough uphill battle for many years and Richard died long before his ideas were accepted but now they are really starting to shine.

        Funny enough Svante Pääbo came to the rescue a couple of years ago and moved a common ancestor back at least 250k years without further limits. There were no breeding barriers between Denisovan, Neanderthal and us and we carry all their genes with us today. We share a common ancestry somewhere VERY long ago.

        The anthropologists are still in shock and have not come up with any kind of comment at all to the DNA finds. They really got their pants i a bundle…

        • I read one of their books. Their books began with a chant for some Hindu god

          Most people probably would have stopped at there.

        • Mirror on the wall says:

          Archaeogeneticists universally accept archaic human admixture into anatomically modern humans. However, Eurasian ancestry is overwhelmingly derived from a single population that left Africa about 70,000-50,000 years ago. Pääbo at the Max Planck Institute is a thoroughly mainstream geneticist and in no way a controversial figure who is opposed to the mainstream anthropological consensus.

          Perhaps more interestingly, Pääbo was behind the find that severe covid outcomes, hospitalizations and deaths, are due to Neanderthal admixture (or obesity, old age or comorbidities), and that most people do not have those particular Neanderthal genes. Most of us are not susceptible to severe covid outcomes in the first place, and we have absolutely no need of jabs, which do not stop viral transmission anyway and in fact can facilitate it unawares.

          Jabs can be useful for those with those particular Neanderthal genes, and unfocused jabs were always a complete waste of time and money as well as very dangerous. It would have been simple to identify who had the Neanderthal genes in question and to vax them – but all governments chose not to do that and to max vax. At some point, that is going to have to be rigorously interrogated, as it touches on our responses to future pandemics.

          (Sorry to all, back on covid yet again.)

          • Oddys says:

            Pääbo is not controversial because he left the archaologists and anthropologists in a cloud of dust they have not got out of. They just dont understand what he has done and have no way to object at all. But all this “out of Africa 50-70k years ago” is suddenly just a sideshow. There were no breeding barrier between the people who got out of Africa and the Neanderthals and the Denisovans. They must thus share a common linage long before they were separated and based on mutation frequency in mithochondrial DNA that must be AT LEAST 250k years ago.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Archaeogeneticists universally accept archaic human admixture into anatomically modern humans. You are making up some nonsense to pretend that there is some disagreement among archaeogeneticists about archaic admixture, or about Out of Africa, which simply does not exist. Your motives may be political, and maybe you could clarify that. Archaeogenetics is a coherent field with rigorous methods, it moves forward as a whole, and there is no controversy about archaic admixture, OOA, or resistance to progress in the field in the way that you suggest.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Svante Pääbo published his work on Neanderthal admixture back in 2010, it rapidly gained acceptance, and many other papers by other research teams since then have uncovered further archaic admixture into modern humans. We can expect more to emerge in the future. Nevertheless, the modern Eurasian genome is overwhelmingly derived from a single population that left Africa about 70,000-50,000 years ago. Those are not mutually exclusives facts and no imagines that they are – there is no controversy over that. Archaeogenetics is not some conspiracy.

            • Oddys says:

              You come trough as a bit angry… How come? When there is no controversies? We know everything.. right..

              You come trough as a retired teacher!

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              ‘You, you, you!’

              What nonsense are you making up now?

              If you have any serious papers that make your point then direct us to them. Otherwise let it go.

            • Oddys says:

              This is called “projection” – accusing others of your own shortcomings.

              Teachers – bah!

            • Oddys says:

              We are formally enemies now – I will watch you carefully and go back trough all your writngs to find all your faults and errors. You will be held responsible!

              (Another problem with both active and retired teachers is that they take themselves deadly serious and are ALWAYS right. And can not take a joke or a drift)

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Are you even sane?

              Gail, please take note.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              The latest paper on ‘archaic’ introgression into anatomically modern humans is available in full here if anyone fancies wading through it. Archaeogeneticists generally accept archaic introgression, and debate focuses eg. on how many times it happened and how significant it was to the AMH genome. More and more papers will continue to appear as the archaeogenetics community as a whole explores every facet of the matter.

              https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379122000221

              > Exploring Late Pleistocene hominin dispersals, coexistence and extinction with agent-based multi-factor models

              Highlights

              Agent-based model suggests long-term coexistence of archaic and modern humans.
              Failed dispersals are the rule rather than the exception.
              Neanderthal extinction driven by locally diverse causes.

              Abstract

              Toward the end of the Pleistocene, archaic humans in Eurasia such as the Neanderthals and Denisovans were completely replaced by anatomically modern humans dispersing from Africa. The causes underlying the replacement and extinction processes remain controversial, especially regarding the relative importance of random events, and anthropogenic and environmental factors. Here, we use the most comprehensive agent-based modeling framework to date for exploring Late Pleistocene human population dynamics under realistic time-evolving environmental conditions. Model simulations suggest multiple out-of-Africa dispersals. Most of these resulted in only partial replacement of Eurasians and long-term coexistence of spatially structured archaic and modern populations in Eurasia. Moreover, a comparison of empirical and model data suggests that the best-documented extinction process – that of the Neanderthals – did not have a single overarching cause, but spatially and temporally diverse causes and mechanisms, such as environmental fluctuations, and asymmetry in resource exploitation efficiency and reproductive rates. When viewed in isolation, various population properties have central importance for replacements, but their true importance can only be understood in comparison and with interactions with other properties.

              1. Introduction

              It is now generally acknowledged that Neanderthals, Denisovans and other archaic hominin populations that inhabited Eurasia during most of the Middle and Late Pleistocene (EAH: Eurasian archaic humans) became eventually replaced by modern human populations dispersing from Africa (AMH: African anatomically modern humans). Current paleontological, paleogenetic, archaeological and paleoenvironmental evidence suggests that this was a multifactorial and heterogeneous process. It involved early dispersals from Africa to the Near East (Rabett (2018)), admixture of resident and arriving populations at different points in time and space (Sanchez-Quinto and Lalueza-Fox (2015); Wolf and Akey (2018)), and the eventual disappearance of archaic populations throughout Eurasia by around 38 kya (kiloyears ago) (Sanchez-Quinto and Lalueza-Fox (2015); Finlayson and Carrion (2007); Higham et al. (2014))….

            • Oddys says:

              Quite illustrative all of this. I will just leave it here for now to allow the intelligent reader to form an independent opinion. We will meet again – I promise!

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Keyboard hardman?

              http://theyorkshiredad.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Internet-Warrior1.jpg

              Maybe get some pills or learn how to relax? Most people can act the adult if they try.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              norm’s grandson?

            • Oddys says:

              You are indeed RUDE! Wave after wave of pure rudeness and projection. Suggesting that someone you dont know “need medication” because they dont agree with you is nothing but immature behavior. I’m disappointed.

        • “There were no breeding barriers between Denisovan, Neanderthal and us and we carry all their genes with us today. We share a common ancestry somewhere VERY long ago.”

          That is an issue.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Most humans have some genes from MOREONDRATHALS …

            • some moreon than others

            • Fast Eddy says:

              And some are 100% MOREONDRATHALS…

              How can you tell?

              You show them American Moon — and if they watch it and ask what’s it all about?

              You are dealing with a Pure Bred MORENADRATHAL.

              See norm… you can’t win. Why do you bother trying?

            • because eddy

              you count as nothing more than my pencil sharpener

              but in addition i look on it as my civic duty to teach you about the use of vowels in the english language

              i know that o and u look very similar—but i wont leave you floundering, until you ‘get it’–it’s a form of dyslexia i haven’t come across before—proving difficult.

              i normally use my teaching skills on other, more interesting subjects. (where pupils show their gratitude)

              but for you eddy. i make an exception.

              i might even teach you the rudiments of repartee—if you have a mind to absorb it.

          • Mirror on the wall says:

            The lineage that led to modern humans separated from Neanderthals and Denisovans about 600,000 years ago, and they then separated about 400,000 years ago. Some rare genetic introgression between them has been detected, and various papers have been published on that.

            Google scholar has over 18,000 papers on (archaic admixture humans), so it has obviously rapidly gained acceptance. There is no controversy about that.

            https://scholar.google.co.uk/scholar?q=archaic+admixture+humans&hl=en&as_sdt=0&as_vis=1&oi=scholart

            • Oddys says:

              So, out of nothing you suddenly agree. Modern Humans are at least 600k years. All this “out of Africa” is just a sideshow. If we suddenly went from 50-80k years to 600k years, I would certainly call this a revolution and a complete paradigm shift. All thanks to Svante Pääbo. The only people who suggested something similar before Pääbo were Thompson and Cremo. Or could you inform me better? When did mainstream anthropology and archaeology suggest 600k years by themselves?

            • dont forget, that according to a survey some years ago, 46% of Americans believe the earth is less than 10k years old

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              That is probably what is going on here. Someone just found out that is not so.

    • humans regenerated because they had resources to draw on, in pockets of survival where stuff was left untouched,

      there was no ‘minimum’ involved

  4. Jarle says:

    Brent 90 $ … where the deep pockets coming from?

    • Printed money by many of the major economies.

      • Sam says:

        Is $90 too high for the core economies? It seems like with inflation that maybe it is too low….$20 U.S dollars seems like not very much money these days… I wonder what oil companies I should invest in just in case collapse is 20 years away!

  5. Fred says:

    Strange times. I’ve been moved by the Canadian convoy to the point I’m joining the Convoy to Canberra tomorrow.

    On the other hand, I’m fully subscribed to Peak Oil and the consequences of that i.e. collapse and all its accoutrements and realise in the end protest is futile. If you take it down to the source problem, the protests are against resource depletion, but probably only 0.001% of people realise that.

    To me there’s a depopulation agenda with COVID and the vax – it goes too far to be the usual greed and corruption and in a strange way I agree with that. WTF else can they do?

    Get rid of people in high energy consumption countries and at least there’s a chance of BAU in some reduced form for a bit longer.

    CEP goes too far though. I can’t see the sociopathic elites wanting to off themselves.

    So what am I protesting? I guess a lament for the end to a way of life as it was to the end of 2019, my kids being coerced into the vax by mandates, braindead moreons spouting BS day in day out.

    Anyway, let’s toast roadtrips. Don’t expect those to last much longer.

    • Rodster says:

      “I’ve been moved by the Canadian convoy to the point I’m joining the Convoy to Canberra tomorrow.”

      Congrats, we need more like you. There’s strength in numbers !

      “Let’s Go Brandon”

  6. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Mexico’s economy likely entered recession in fourth quarter.

    “Mexico’s economy likely contracted in the last three months of 2021, in what would mark a second straight quarter of negative growth and put Latin America’s second-largest economy in a technical recession…”

    https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexicos-economy-likely-entered-recession-fourth-quarter-2022-01-28/

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Colombia surprised most economists with the largest interest rate rise in almost two decades as policy makers try to get soaring inflation back under control.

      “The central bank lifted its benchmark rate one percentage point to 4%, governor Leonardo Villar said in a press conference after the meeting.”

      https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/colombia-stuns-analysts-with-bigger-than-expected-key-rate-hike

    • Mexico has lost its oil exports, because of declining oil production. It is now a big natural gas importer from the US. It cannot afford rising natural gas import prices. It cannot afford the high cost of oil, either, I expect.

      BP data shows that energy consumption per capita in Mexico peaked in 2011. It started declining rapidly in 2019, and fell 15.4% in 2020.

      Mexico’s oil production (in barrels per day, including NGLs) peaked in 2004. It has been declining pretty much every year since. Mexico’s population has been rising. This is not a good combination.

  7. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Protesters torch trains in India as frustration over lack of jobs for young people boils over.

    “Angry job seekers torched trains and set tires alight in northeastern India this week out of frustration over widespread unemployment and what many applicants say is an unfair recruitment process in the country’s huge railway sector.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/01/28/protesters-railway-jobs-bihar/

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Hit by pandemic, broken by poverty [India]…

      “According to a study by Pew Research Centre, the middle class in India has shrunk by 32 million (earning between ₹750 to ₹1,400 a day) and the number of poor (earning ₹150 or less a day) has increased by 75 million.”

      https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Delhi/hit-by-pandemic-broken-by-poverty/article38341810.ece

      • The lockdowns (and less international trade and tourism) led to a loss of jobs in India, particularly ones that paid well. This is all related to inadequate energy per capita on a world basis. Poor countries, including India, were hit especially hard.

        There was considerable evidence of the economy trying to contract in 2019 and derivatives having problems toward the end of 2019. The pandemic and lockdowns in 2020 allowed some countries to add a great deal more debt/money supply, but it didn’t fix the underlying problem of not enough energy for everyone.

    • Sounds like unhappiness related to inadequate energy per capita for the economy.

  8. Fast Eddy says:

    LIVE NOW: View of downtown Ottawa as trucker convoy arrives

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/video?playlistId=1.5758851

  9. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Oil prices are showing signs of overheating as traders anticipate a severe shortage of petroleum this year…

    “Unless there is a relatively rapid production response, prices will continue rising until they weigh on business and consumer spending, or the increase in inflation draws a response from the major central banks.

    “Rising living costs and accelerating inflation have already forced their way up the agenda to become the top concern for households, businesses and policymakers in North America and Europe.”

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/oil-market-shows-signs-overheating-kemp-2022-01-28/

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Global Production Issues Driving Natural Gas Prices Higher…

      “While governments and energy companies turn to LNG, production issues at several facilities have caused major headaches. Fixing production problems hasn’t been easy, as some facilities are reporting issues lasting weeks and months and, in the case of Norway’s Hammerfest LNG, a year.”

      https://capital.com/global-production-issues-driving-natural-gas-prices-higher

      • Natural gas production seems to have lots of problems, especially when it is cold out and people depend on it most.

      • I notice that “lack of feed gas” is one of the reasons for shuttering LNG production. Also, the big complex installations in Australia don’t seem to be working properly.

        In Western Australia Shell’s Prelude floating LNG vessel is shuttered indefinitely after orders from the country’s offshore safety agency. Safety officials said the plant is offline until Shell can prove it can safely recover the project’s power and services after a December 2021 fire caused outages on the 3.6 mmty vessel.

        Australia also shut down Chevron’s 15.6 mmty Gorgon LNG facility last month after outages due to maintenance issues. A restart date hasn’t been given.

        Feed gas problems have continued at the 14.8 mmty Atlantic LNG facility in Trinidad and Tobago. The plant was closed in the summer of 2021 due to a lack of feed gas with no restart date announced.

        In Africa, Nigeria LNG decreased production by 20% in 2021, stemming from insufficient feed gas. A long-awaited 8 mmty facility started construction in June, which would increase Nigeria LNG’s capacity to 30 mmty from 22.

    • JonF says:

      The exact same narrative played out back in October…..Oil to the moon….but WTI failed to stay above $85 and in fact tumbled below $70….

      I don’t have any predictions….yet, given that each barrel delivers less and less net energy…it’s hard to see oil going above $150….and staying there very long….

  10. Fast Eddy says:

    Don’t Look Up

    I want to die in my sleep peacefully like my grandfather

    Not screaming in terror like his passengers.

    Jack Handey

    Interpretation:

    Better to be exterminated using a lethal injection and starvation

    Not go extinct after global murder, rape, mayhem and incredible suffering

    The Elders are using this cinema vehicle to tell us what they are up to — notice how so many big names are in this film

  11. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Ukraine and Russia explained in maps and charts.

    “Al Jazeera breaks down the history, politics and economics of the Ukraine-Russia crisis in eight graphics.”

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/28/ukraine-and-russia-explained-in-maps-and-charts-interactive

  12. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Inside Sweden’s 100,000-Year Solution to Bury Nuclear Waste… Minister Annika Strandhäll announced the approval this week of a plan to bury 12,000 tons of nuclear waste 500 meters underground, Dagens Nyheter reports.

    “The method, proposed by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB), relies on the stability of the granitic bed-rock and two engineered barriers: a copper-cast iron canister enclosed by highly compacted bentonite clay.”

    https://worldcrunch.com/green/sweden-nuclear-energy

  13. Harry McGibbs says:

    “No 10 [Downing Street] urgently needs a coherent energy policy…

    “It would …represent leadership if the Government were to start taking significant steps to reduce the country’s reliance on volatile international energy markets, by permitting greater exploitation of the UK’s gas reserves, for example, or rolling out new nuclear plants more rapidly.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2022/01/28/no10-urgently-needs-coherent-energy-policy/

      • drb says:

        Judging from the ages of these stalwarts, Enrico Caruso? Louis Armstrong?

      • JonF says:

        It would be cool to see Rogan interview Van Morrison…..a musician of that generation who spoke out publicly against covid restrictions…

      • Tim Groves says:

        OK boomers!

        Neil and Joniare long-time friends, both Canadians, both suffered from polio as teenagers (or more likely poisoning by DDT or some other marvel of science), both have credited the polio vaccine with saving their lives (although the fact is—and even Norman will bear me out on this—there is no cure for polio, it can only be prevented, by a vaccine), both moved to Southern California, both were heavily involved in the goings on at Laurel Canyon in the sixties and seventies (Dunc may tell an anecdote about how he shared a joint with them at an orgy there), both wrote and performed some good catchy songs, and both are exhibiting signs of senile dementia, are out of touch, and remarkably crinkly. Indeed, they both seem to have aged prematurely and have one foot in the grave.

        Joni has also suffered from Morgellons disease for many years—another marvel of science from the same people who came up with COVID-19 and the shots. So it’s interesting she’s cheerleading for the same forces who crippled her twice.

        Are they supporting the official narrative because they are senile and out of touch? Or because they are working for Intelligence (which ringmastered a huge swathe of the rock ‘n’ roll hippy circus even as the kids assumed it was spontaneous)? Or are they doing it for a bit of easy publicity to nourish their overweening egos?

        I would go for the last explanation. There’s not much else happening and they no longer get even a tenth of the attention they feel they are entitled to. But assessing motive is a difficult call.

        And remember, Joni called out Bob Dylan as “a fake”. Interesting word. She’s probably right in that most of the mega stars, probably including Joni and Neil, are probably fakes in that they are not quite what they seem.

        • JonF says:

          Yeah, good riddance to the lot of them….although, I will forever have a soft spot for Big Yellow Taxi and Carey….

        • Fast Eddy says:

          dunc doubled jodi with neil? really????

          dunc how much acid did you drop before you lost the plot completely and turned into a ranting illogical clown?

        • Lidia17 says:

          Trump ended up in a mediatical feud with Young over the purchase of Young’s music for the campaign (I think it was “Rockin’ in the Free World”).

          But prior to that, Neil was sucking up to Trump in search of money (according to this account):

      • jj says:

        Oh no! Spotify will cave with these heavy hitters.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      New South Wales has again recorded its deadliest day of the Covid-19 pandemic, with 49 deaths in the 24 hours to 8pm on Friday. I dont believe it!! Impossible – 94% vaxxed

      https://www.odt.co.nz/news/australia/49-covid-deaths-nsw-hospital-cases-ease

      Let’s bring in norm to explain what’s gone wrong here…

      norm?

  14. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Drone video of the scene in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada right now as some of the freedom convoy makes it’s way into the city in anticipation for tomorrow’s protest.
    https://twitter.com/TheMarieOakes/status/1487290427661238273

  15. Michael Le Merchant says:

    It’s crashing down all around us!

    One size fits all clot shot, one size fits all medicine. Welcome to nationalized health care where your relationship with your doctor is managed by psychotic policies from DC and the collective.

    I spoke to a Univ of MN internist this morning. He told me they’re being encouraged to shift from individual doctor-patient relationships to thinking of each patient as a component of a community and treating them so as to improve broader public health.

  16. Michael Le Merchant says:

    mRNA Jabs = Crispr Cas9 Bioweapons

    The growing accessibility of DNA synthesis capabilities, computational power, and information means that a growing number of labs will have the capacity to produce bioweapons. Scientists have been able to transform the four letters of DNA—A (adenine), C (cytosine), G (guanine), and T (thymine)—into the ones and zeroes of binary code. This transformation makes genetic engineering a matter of electronic manipulation, which decreases the cost of the technique.

    Binary Biological Weapons

    This technique involves inserting plasmids, small bacterial DNA fragments, into the DNA of other bacteria in order to increase virulence or other pathogenic properties within the host bacteria

    https://uspto.report/patent/app/20200385721

  17. Fast Eddy says:

    https://youtu.be/AuZ0znvhyeE

    Good riddance humans!!! hahaahaha … we’ll not miss you as we have fun!!!

  18. Michael Le Merchant says:

    The case for Reverse Marek’s
    https://worldedge.substack.com/p/the-case-for-reverse-mareks

    • Fast Eddy says:

      So it is an IQ test.

      hahahaahahahahaha…. maybe the Elders have a way to make ‘BAU Lite’ to work and they wanted to cull the MOREONS… cuz like us… they despise them

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “This preprint tells the history of a waning protection after a few months, the jab is useful for an amazing 50 days tops, at the cost of you getting the disease anyway and playing russian roulette with autoimmunity, cancer, and neurodegeneration.”

      the world is barely into year 2 of the long term 5 year study of these damaging and deadly side effects.

      how well are you jabbed people holding up?

      should much thanks be given to the study group?

      about 4 years to go, tick tock, tick tock, tick tock…

      • Mike Roberts says:

        I know only one person who had a very bad reaction to the vaccine, requiring some hospital treatment but she’s fine now. I had a bad 24 hours after the second dose, nothing on the first or third. Everyone else I know, no problem but that’s what we’d expect. If reactions were not rare, you wouldn’t have commenters here posting every story they can find about someone’s apparent reaction to the vaccine. I know only one person who died from the virus.

        Omicron might see the end of the road for the current crop of vaccines though, with protection less than stellar even with three or four doses. However, it’s still early days to see if protection holds up against severe disease.

  19. Michael Le Merchant says:

    5 year old male- Pfizer BNT162B2

    Facial paralysis
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FKPO9CXXoAE_kd6?format=jpg&name=large

  20. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Tha Late Great San Francisco RIP…

    EXCLUSIVE: It was supposed to be a facility to put addicts in touch with rehab facilities but we reveal how drug-swamped San Francisco is in reality operating a secret and ILLEGAL drug use site

    We are the first to report on the operation of the illegal supervised drug consumption site at the linkage center.

    The two of us witnessed a half-dozen people smoking fentanyl in an outdoor area on the site, and two people passed out at a table.

    An employee of a city contractor at the linkage center told us that two people had overdosed and been revived since the site opened on Tuesday.

    When confronted with evidence that the linkage center housed a drug consumption site, spokespersons for Urban Alchemy and for Mayor London Breed declined to comment.

    A recovering addict who lives in the Tenderloin and asked that we withhold her name told us her friend went into the linkage center to smoke crack and that when she asked an official if there was a drug consumption site inside she was told there was not.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10427863/San-Francisco-secretly-illegally-operating-illicit-drug-use-site-SHELLENBERG-WOODHOUSE.html

    • jj says:

      Go to any park in the bay area. There are hundreds of the balloons narcotics are sold in just outside the door of the rest area. The pile of empty balloons represents a affirmation to addicts. They smile as they add a empty balloon to the pile. Narcotics have been legal for a long time in the bay. Dragons make very poor pets.

  21. Lidia17 says:

    Gabardine is an alumna of Sc

    Gabbard is an alumna of Klaus’ Young Global Leaders programme.

    • Lidia17 says:

      Ooops, this showed up in the wrong place. Was supposed to be a reply to Xabier and Ed on a previous page.

      Anyway, here’s Schwab on the YGLs:

      ——–
      Speaking to political commentator and Bohemian Grove alum David Gergen at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics, Schwab described how the WEF’s modus operandi is to penetrate governments by installing its “young global leaders.”

      “And I have to say, when I mention our names, like Mrs. Merkel, even Vladimir Putin and so on, they all have been young global leaders of the World Economic Forum,” Schwab told Gergen.

      “But what we are very proud of now is the young generation like Prime Minister Trudeau, president of elsewhere, Argentina and so on…”

      “So we penetrate the cabinets,” Schwab admitted.

      “So yesterday, I was at the reception for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau,” Schwab continued, “and I would know that half of this cabinet or even more than half of this cabinet are our actually young global leaders of the world.”

      “…And that’s true in Argentina too,” Gergen added.

      “It’s true in Argentina,” Schwab agreed, “and it’s true in France now, I mean Mr. President [Emmanuel Macron] who is a young global leader…”

      https://redstatenation.com/video-klaus-schwab-bragging-that-the-world-economic-forum-has-infiltrated-the-cabinets-of-world-leaders/

      • Xabier says:

        Quite so, Lidia: I was just watching Tulsi and something seemed rather off about her, purely intuitive.

        ‘Too good to be true’ came to mind.

        Of course, they might have been grooming her at the WEF as a potential plant, and she later failed to please; or she could be waiting in the wings.

        What we do know is that their infiltration plans have been long and carefully laid with true psychopathic diligence.

        • JesseJames says:

          I have always wondered about Tulsi….military veteran, supposedly conservative, but yet a Demoncrat….and coming out against certain democrat leaders. She does smell of controlled opposition.

          • jj says:

            Where has voting for our favorite brand got us? On the edge of civil war. Who other than Tulsi speaks of this? Who other than Tulsi knows what civil war means?

            Tulsi has been to war and knows what war entails. Id rather take the chance that she has a heart than vote for someone who sees war in a detached way. Only veterans know what war is. I am not a veteran.

            Tulsi physically placed her body in Syria without government approval to examine the situation. This speaks to me. She was willing to interact in a manner other than as a war participant. She was willing to break the war model and see the syrian people.

            Tulsi did not vote for the sham impeachment a exercise in divisiveness. I assume that contributors here judge on actions not gift wrapping?

            Klaus connection? Trump rode on the epstein jet but didnt travel to the island.

            I like that Tulsi comes from a religious background that is inclusive. I like that Tulsi understands inclusive applies to everyone. Deplorables included.

            Divisiveness is the war model.

            Tulsi exercises. Acknowledges her physical body and enjoys it. Our connection to planet.

            As it is our species is war. We war against the planet. We war against other cultures. We war against our neighbors. It is a deeply flawed model based in fear earning owning consuming and denial of death. We are hard wired for war. All our models worship war as power. Our only acknowledgment of a righteous death is through war models.

            From a practical note it appears the natives have obtained spencer rifles and gatling guns.

            Physical laws are important. They keep us from crack pipe delusions. Physical laws do not entirely determine our essence. Our actions and our choice for our essence will determine whether all we are is war. I am not optimistic. I do acknowledge possibility. We can be something different than we are now. Time is short and time will tell.

            When Tulsi endorsed Biden I became a non supporter. She now has confronted Biden on his divisiveness, his war models. Bout time girl. I am a supporter once more. I like veterans. They are strong. Some understand our models are not appropriate. Who better to try to forge appropriate societies than veterans?

            People will vote for who gives them the best chance of earning owning and consuming. We cling. I cling. Rigged in more way than one.

  22. Fast Eddy says:

    Pfizer’s documented Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE) concerns

    https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/pfizers-documented-antibody-dependent

  23. Michael Le Merchant says:

    In this interview, return guest Stephanie Seneff, Ph.D., a senior research scientist at MIT for over five decades, discusses her latest paper, “Innate Immune Suppression by SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Vaccinations. The Role of G-quadruplexes, Exosomes and MicroRNAs,” co-written with Dr. Peter McCullough, along with two other authors, Dr. Greg Nigh and Dr. Anthony Kyriakopoulos.
    https://rumble.com/vt5jxs-stephanie-seneff-phd-how-the-covid-shots-suppress-your-immune-system.html

  24. Michael Le Merchant says:

    What it sounds like in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada right now as the convoy rolls into town. The official protest kicks off tomorrow.
    https://twitter.com/TheMarieOakes/status/1487215026972905473

  25. MM says:

    @jj
    On the previous page you talk about “magna charta”
    It seems to me you never asked anybody to deliver bread tour your house or shop,
    How does thios all come about?
    A conttract is a sign of weakness!
    As you do not know your contract party, you think that a contract can validate a “claim” on this very contract.
    If you ever tried to “get a claim on a conract that was not fulfilled” through the juristrictional system you will find out that it costs you more to go for that than simply acceptng the loss.
    That makes the entire legal system “void”.
    If yoiu aggree on a conitract the counterparty will have to comply. if it does not the counter party will have to die. That is what all peoplke in any society through history simply have to agree upion.
    I Do not need some “Magna Charta” to walk around my city every day. I just o it. People that accept what I do, will have a positive relation and people that do not like it should go to die ( in a literal meaning)
    The porblem is “the number”
    As soon as you eliminate individual interactions and say “a number of X people” you are no longer in the sphere of “I myself in this world” but you are in the sphere of “the state against me in this world”.
    You organise the enviroinment around you at every single moment in time.
    Nobody can ever organize something for me!
    I can organize “my immediate surroundings” and I will work hard to do that but I do not at all want any “this applies to you all” rule .
    Never ever!

  26. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Sunderland boss Lee Johnson claims the Covid vaccine could be behind his goalkeeper Lee Burge being ruled out of playing with an ‘inflamed heart’ – and says ‘it happens a lot after these injections’ – as 25% of EFL players continue to dodge the jab
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-10451985/Sunderland-boss-claims-Covid-vaccine-players-inflammed-heart.html

  27. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Israel Ministry of Health dashboard
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FKNw1gUXIAI_1w2?format=jpg&name=large

  28. Michael Le Merchant says:

    UK Public Health data shows an average DECREASE of 7% in COVID-19 hospitalizations among the Unvaccinated, while those with 3+ doses saw an average INCREASE of 19% from last week

    These are rates per 100k by vaxxed and unvaxxed populations
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FKNrsE9XwAc7cB9?format=jpg&name=large

    • The catch is that most people would compare the level of hospitalizations between the two groups. Those with three doses have a much lower level of hospitalizations than the unvaccinated. Granted, the level is going down for the unvaccinated and up for those vaccinated, but they are so far apart, it is hard to see that the rates will cross any time soon.

      • JeremyT says:

        Indeed, the graphs show that the unvaccinated are three and a half times more likely to be hospitalised

    • Fast Eddy says:

      They actually admit this … hahahahaahaha…

      But the guidance will be to get more boosters… and people will

  29. Kurt says:

    Still too much typing on ofw. Here in the core, life is awesome. M Kurt will be serving duck dumplings along with a nice bottle of wine. Fresh tank of oil for heating. Probably watch a movie on the big screen home theater system later on. Collapse is still two years away but tonight … BAU baby!!!

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      all stocked up for the big snowstorm tonight?

      are you trying to make others jealous that you burn uggly dirty oil merely to keep from freezing your azz off?

      c’mon man!

      huh Turkey and Argentina are accelerating towards collapse, but oh wait.

      us too-much-typers don’t live there.

      fate luck karma who knows.

      BigscreenAU tonight, baby!

  30. Fast Eddy says:

    Covid vaccines and pregnancy: > 172,000 spontaneous abortions due to the vaccine

    A new analysis by Dr. Jessica Rose estimates the number of spontaneous abortions caused by the COVID vaccines. It’s over 172,000 to date. I’ve notified the CDC, but I don’t expect to hear back.

    https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/covid-vaccines-and-pregnancy-172000

    Dead CovIDIOTS. Hurrah!!! HURRAH!!!

    Isn’t it great when stooopidity boomerangs on MOREONS hahahahaha…. It can’t get any better than being complicit in the murder of your unborn child… that is just… priceless!!!

    • Xabier says:

      It’s hard to fathom: here, we had a 7-months pregnant doctor urging other women who are up the spout to get vaxxed as it’s so safe and effective, etc.

      Just lying?

      An insane member of the Cult?

  31. Fast Eddy says:

    My good friend Dr. Francis Christian, cancelled, fired as specialist doctor in Canada as an advocate for early treatment & questioned the vaccine, he made this video as I head to Ottawa to speak
    this is a beautiful man, sweet human being, so hurt by what Canada did to him…I am part of group of Canadian scientists with Trozzi, Phillips, Hodkinson etc. & we are standing up…huge hugs to him

    https://palexander.substack.com/p/my-good-friend-dr-francis-christian

    https://rumble.com/vteg30-truckers-for-freedom-to-our-magnificent-heroes.html

    Devil Covid … imminent

    In the meantime… Shall we pray for Mayhem????

  32. Fast Eddy says:

    It just occurred to me why many people are unable to understand that there are vast conspiracies behind much of what we perceive as reality.

    It is because they have small minds… that are able to think in one dimension only…. and that dimension is for the most part a delusion (e.g. we have walked on the moon despite overwhelming evidence that humans would be fried if they got to close to the van allan belts).

    Most humans truly are stooopid pathetic beasts.

    • MM says:

      It basically is very pathetic but you need to feel the need to know and then apply the hard work of learning.Llife is hard. It is easy to forget this when you have light at the flip of a switch. Maybe you (I) are blessed with information processing capacity (and afaik every human is created with that) ans gathering information and accepting (!) it is very hard work.
      Hey: we OFW folks have gone through a very hard process, no?
      Every single fellow has come to his own conclusion.
      We can say: our conclusion is the essence of what we know at this very moment and we understand that we need to gather more information as we proceed. Basically we have to rely on the information that comes to our mind but we have no way to prove that this information is any information at all. (dioes there exist an objective reality).
      But what I do to FE and what FE does to me seems to make sense. Quantum theory says that everything is based on relations. The informational theory paradigm says: for informatiom to be processed, there needs to be a common language between both. I would say this is our senses. Aka sense making. In my mind, I have certain capabilities and I “know” that 1+1 is not 5 but it is interesting that people can walk on this planet that have not been wiped out a long time ago that can make 1+1 equal 5.

    • Wet My Beak says:

      There are no humans as stupid as kiwis. They spend years in a mind-shrinking state education system which turns them into intellectual pygmies. It is difficult to find an adult new zealander who can read and write to a reasonable level.

      Also kiwi culture celebrates violence as the highest of virtues and creates people who are more beasts than humans.

      I have no doubt whatsoever that new zealanders will return to cannibalism as resources become tighter. Less than 200 years ago human flesh was prized and inventories of unlucky captured folk were kept alive for the next feasts.

      • MM says:

        “The Kiwis” simply does not aply as FE is in NZ and to my knowldedgeis not copletely nuty, even if I yould say that he is nuts in an other way.
        But this simply confirms hat “the kiwis” is “void”

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I wonder if it all went wrong at some point … or if this is just a product of shipping all the feeble minded to NZ in the 1800’s.

        • Wet My Beak says:

          The dysgenics programme played a big part in turning the population of new zealand into cretins. If you shouldn’t be having children the government paid you to have them. So the backward march if these sad people began. Some call them the degenerati.

          The women especially became unbearably revolting. Often weighing north of 300 pounds they waddle down the streets in lycra pants which is enough to make you gag should you be in a restaurant or cafe with a view.

          Husbands or partners are inevitably much smaller and lack any masculine features. Many commit suicide to escape the clutches of these elephantine formless mounds of goo.

          A great sadness covers the land. The people have no direction or much hope. It is hard to escape to another country at the moment.

          Attributes which many folk overseas think comprise a soul are completely absent from the new zealand herds. Charmless, moronic vessels for the consumption of fast food they spin aimlessly in the vortices of their own ignorance and misery.

          Someone please drop a nuke on this place!

    • Xabier says:

      Perhaps they lack pattern-recognition ability, as well as the required amount of intuition and imagination.

      Of course, they are starved – by the MSM and their own choice – of good quality, global, information inputs as well.

      To understand this situation, and the energy predicament, one has to draw on sources from a wide range of countries and sectors of the economy.

    • Ed says:

      The Apollo 11 crew had received 0.18 rem each on average (‘rem’ stands for ‘roentgen equivalent man’). To compare, one CT scan delivers about 1 rem. To kill an adult human, you’d have to deliver 300 rem or more in a very short span of time, but if it is spread over weeks or even days, there will be few effects. About 50 rem delivered at once will cause radiation sickness.

      https://science.thewire.in/the-sciences/apollo-11-van-allen-radiation-belts-translunar-injection/

      They completely went round the inner belt and clipped a low intensity part of the outer belt.

  33. Mirror on the wall says:

    State corruption in UK. I have been talking about this for the past year – the refusal to uphold the law when it comes to the powerful, especially with the ‘royals’, and the Tory corruption with C19 contracts. Now it looks like the Met Police is actively intervening to protect Boris from parliamentary accountability.

    The British State really does not ‘get’ it, and it just pretends to be a ‘democracy’ or to have the ‘rule of law’. They are just unbelievable, and you only have to look at what they did in NI with endless Crown Forces executions of ordinary (UK) civilians presented as sectarian killings that were done by terror gangs. There is nothing good in that state.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10451357/Partygate-report-minimal-reference-potential-crimes.html

    > ‘It looks like Cressida is trying to PROTECT Boris’: Furious bereaved families, ex-cops and MPs accuse ‘incompetent’ Met chief of a Partygate ‘stitch up’ as police order Sue Gray to water down report – which could delay verdict for MONTHS

    Tories, lawyers and ex-officers have joined a furious backlash after police confirmed they have told the Cabinet Office the long-awaited document should feature ‘minimal reference’ to lockdown breaches that might be criminal. The announcement has thrown the situation into complete chaos, with Ms Gray now considering pausing the process rather than releasing a version that would inevitably be condemned as a whitewash. Police waited until the report was all-but complete to launch their own investigation into some of the allegations on Tuesday, but initially briefed they were still happy for the civil servant’s findings to be published in full. Opposition MPs vented fury at the latest move, which will be a massive relief to Boris Johnson as the Yard probe is not likely to be complete for weeks or even months. Some complained that the events ‘reek of a stitch-up’ while others suggested it was down to ‘incompetence’. Former police officers and legal figures questioned the timing and whether publishing the report would really prejudice the police investigation. Even loyalist Tories conceded the situation is a ‘mess’, saying it should have been obvious the report would have to go on hold during a criminal investigation.

  34. Fast Eddy says:

    People stuck on either side of the Tasman between the “two most locked-down places in the world” say they have no idea when they will be able to return home.

    Passengers wearing masks arrive from New Zealand at Sydney International Airport on 16 October, 2020, during the operation of the trans-Tasman bubble.Passengers wearing masks arrive from New Zealand at Sydney International Airport on 16 October, 2020, during the operation of the trans-Tasman bubble. Photo: AFP / David Gray
    Cancelled flights and managed isolation have stranded an unknown number of people on either side of the Tasman.

    In Nelson, Australian academic Peta Wellstead has been unable to get back to Perth since the middle of last year.

    The planned reopening of Western Australia’s border to the rest of the world on 5 February was delayed last week by Premier Mark McGowan, who pointed to escalating health risks posed by the Omicron variant.

    Wellstead has been trying to get home since she started what was supposed to be a six-week trip to New Zealand in July.

    She was moving back there after a decade in New Zealand, had sold her house in Nelson and bought a new one in Perth. But she made an ill-fated trip back to tie up loose ends, sell her car, and see friends before falling ill – and then the border closed again.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/460381/stranded-australians-and-new-zealanders-anxious-about-when-they-can-return-home

    J’ASSinda!!!

    • MM says:

      Here on earth you can never be stuck. Period! Get it ? you can chop a tree it falls down and then you are stuck but then you stuck yourself. or your freind cut the tree and you are stuck because you agreed to cut the tree with your friend. Basically in the end you are still stuck because you did it to yourself (But of course you both did not hope for bad luck)
      Ok, if you are stuck, the thing thet stucks you has to be destroyed. this is very simple.
      This thing is probably commonly known as the state.
      I wll certainly drown in my own shit without a state.

      • houtskool says:

        State of mind is an asset you need to take care of in the near future. I am mentally prepared to choke my neighbors to feed my dog.

        • MM says:

          yes, very sad!
          I am mentally prepared that people will knock on my door to chop my head off.
          But then I can no longer invite them to my home for a cup of coffee. They will have to make the coffee for themselves.
          (@Herbie Finkelstein: “Let them inherit this earh”)

          • houtskool says:

            Sad? I feel lucky.

            • MM says:

              The unfortunate state of affairs is that I (a lot of other people , we) feell better with not being. Aka CEP.
              A pretty hard predicament!

              Actually I can tell you that a predicament does not exist at all, the only thing that I can be sure that exists is me. That is definite for at least several centuries people that understand that 1+1=2 and worked on from that.
              Today we have to work on people that live in a world where 1+1 equals 5. Why should I work here? Concerning me “working on this common earth project through time simply is fun” but i do not mind if you just operate machines until your pension and then be bored for the rest of eternity. Bore off you!
              ugh, complicated but dunnot wanna edit.

            • houtskool says:

              MM, thanks for reply. Don’t make it too complicated. Brain quantity is no guarantee for succes. Live like a beaten dog, and everything turns into a diamond. A spoiled bitch can’t handle anything.

            • Artleads says:

              “Live like a beaten dog.” I really love that one!

  35. Fast Eddy says:

    Coronavirus Hong Kong: authorities weigh vaccine pass to enter shopping malls, use public transport, source says

    The new requirements are being considered as part of the government’s rebranded ‘vaccine pass’ initiative

    City confirms another 115 Covid-19 infections, including 111 that were locally transmitted, with at least 10 suspected to involve the Delta variant

    https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3165089/coronavirus-hong-kong-authorities-weighing

    Cuz the vaccine stops covid right? Or maybe because HK wants MORE covid?

    Like Israel Denmark Canada UK etc….

  36. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Truckers arriving at Parliament Hill
    https://twitter.com/BernieSpofforth/status/1487134783561949192

  37. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Ocular Surface Erosion after Suspected Exposure to Evaporated COVID-19 Vaccine
    https://www.karger.com/Article/FullText/520500

  38. call me an old cynic

    but Russia invades ukraine

    Russian gas taps close

    Europe needs gas

    nearest source of gas is the usa

    hmmmmmmm

    • Rodster says:

      It’s possible they invade Ukraine but I think both sides will back off. There’s too much at stake and the US is also picking a fight with China. Yes the United States is being run by crazed lunatics but even neocons will come to their senses when to back off.

      I don’t see the US supplying Europe with gas. They couldn’t manage that even during quiet times. Now the US has energy problems of their own making.

    • I don’t think they will invade. If it loses, Russia dies

      Too much is in stake

    • MM says:

      People have no idea about a multidimensional system.
      We play Kazakhstan, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen,Ukraine, Australia, Austria, Germany, France, Italy and so on ad infinitum. It simply is pure fun!
      Goebbels asked: do you want total war? The people claimed Yeah!
      He went home at night, told his wife and they both rolled on the floor laughing for hours.

      • JesseJames says:

        I am currently reading Hellstorm, The Death of Nazi Germany.
        The Russkies invading Germany on the eastern front….
        Utterly horrific.

        This book is actually a good prep manual for the tearing off of faces that will occur in our future.

  39. theblondbeast says:

    Turkey is on the ropes. Will they be the first domino?

    • UK should not have interfered with the Greeks reclaiming its lost land.

      In fact it should helped to capture Mustafa Kemal (I don’t call him by the name he chose to call himself) and extradite him to Sydney, so they could drown him somewhere between Australia and New Zealand.

    • MM says:

      As far as I understand there exists a contact with turkey about Cyprus that will expire soon. Sorry for not sharing a wikipedia link for that.
      There exists a huge exploration business round the area of Cyprus at the moment and some folks say that the gas deposits around Cyprus are so vast that a “temporary slump” of the turkish Lira and all that brings about (starvation, despair and death) is a nothing burger because once the turks have aquired that area the revenue will be bountyful..
      Gail ?

    • This video certainly does sound concerning. Natural gas imports from Iran have already been cut off for several days. The country has been told that the cut-off will last 10-15 more days, making an outage of perhaps as much as 3 weeks.

      Turkey wants to import natural gas from others, but needs hard currency to do this. It has a scheme to get hard currency from banks and businesses, but this will be very expensive, to the extent that it works at all. The only way hard currency owners can be repaid is in Lira; the country will have to issue more and more of these Lira to repay the owners, especially if the currency devalues further.

      There is a real risk that inflation rate will rise higher and higher and the Turkish lira will fall lower and lower. Turkey won’t be able to afford to buy imports of anything. The country will collapse.

      The Turkish doesn’t sound good at all! Turkey isn’t a huge economy, but the rest of the world is quite unstable now as well. It is not only Turkey that is being cut off from natural gas, but several other Asian countries are having problems with their gas supply, as well. Is Turkey a big enough domino to push other dominos over? We don’t know.

  40. Michael Le Merchant says:

    EU watchdog accuses Ursula von der Leyen of ‘maladministration’ and orders her to hand over secret texts she sent to Pfizer’s CEO during efforts to buy 1.8billion Covid jabs
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10451919/EU-watchdog-orders-Ursula-von-der-Leyen-hand-secret-texts-sent-Pfizers-CEO.html

  41. Dennis L. says:

    Simple questions and observations:

    1. What happens to the value of farmland if the cost of inputs exceed the selling price of the crops?

    2. If the value of the dollar(any fiat currency) not backed by resources which can be extracted at a profit inflates, does the value of the farmland increase or decrease in nominal terms given 1?

    3. If the land is financed with a long term fixed mortgage, is this a way to lose less as compared to depreciating currency? It would seem so, but this comes down to a cash flow problem, not that hard to solve.

    4. If the land is sold at current inflated prices, taxes on the gain must be paid, does this mean the land really has depreciated in price as currently it does not seem to make a positive rate of return on inputs alone? E.g. a $10,000 valued piece of land will only purchase $8K of after tax goods. Variation of the old tuna story, where some cans of tuna are trading cans, not eating cans.

    It does not seem to me there is a way to win and not playing is a sure way to lose.

    Dennis L.

    • Ask Bill Gates how he expects this to work.

      I don’t think there are banks or governments that charge taxes, if farmland cannot be made to produce food that sells at a profit. The whole system collapses. Maybe there is a very short time before collapse, but in any reasonable timeframe, the system cannot work.

    • MM says:

      There exists a difference between money and food. Ask Norman!

    • Fast Eddy says:

      BAU… is no longer… viable

      CEP it.

  42. Michael Le Merchant says:

    ‘POWER MAD’ Nicola Sturgeon sparks fury by trying to make her lockdown powers permanent

    The union-hating Scot wants to keep draconian laws that would let her close schools and place Scots under virtual house arrest at the stroke of a pen.

    The Scottish Government insisted the move would help combat “future public health threats”.

    But shocked rivals lashed the “sinister” plan.

    Scottish Tory MP Andrew Bowie said: “The Scottish Government have gone power mad.

    “It is completely unacceptable for them to be suggesting that the powers granted to them, in an emergency situation, should be held in perpetuity.

    “The desperate desire to control people’s lives is depressing and sinister.

    “These were emergency powers for emergency times.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17467320/nicola-sturgeon-lockdown-powers-permanent/

    • Artleads says:

      I think Gail would correctly assess a need for dictatorship when energy is scarce. I’d lean to that direction myself. The problem I see here is with the scale of the ‘dictatorship.’ Nations states can’t work without much surplus energy, and she should be opposed therefor.

      • Nation states are likely to fall into many small pieces, without a high level of energy. Dictators (whatever they call themselves) will likely be in charge of quite small pieces. If there is a larger aggregation, the pieces (and the leaders of these pieces) will sill be quite separate.

        • MM says:

          A dictator by physical force will need coal and ammonia for his bullets. I read that ammoina and coal is on short supply. So I do not worry about any dictatorship.
          A dictator of mind will have an easy going. We know that since the publication of the novel 1984 . A state described in the book can of course never manifest on this planet. I repeat: never!

          • Fast Eddy says:

            If there was a chance at living post BAU (there isn’t) a dictator would be a good outcome… because otherwise it’s full on banditry .. armed vicious gangs… without even the slightest policing

      • i don’t see it as a ‘need’ for a dictatorship—its something that just evolves

  43. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Los Angeles imports slump further as congestion throttles volume

    Import volumes to Southern California ports continue to deteriorate, underscoring just how severe the supply chain crisis remains, despite public relations spin to the contrary.

    Los Angeles disclosed on Thursday that it handled just 385,251 twenty-foot equivalent units of import cargo in December. That’s down 16% year-on-year and down 18% from December 2018, pre-pandemic.

    December marked the fourth month in a row that Los Angeles’ imports fell versus the preceding month; imports were down 4.5% from November and 17.6% from October. December imports were the lowest since June 2020, a month when ocean carriers were canceling sailings to America due to lockdown-depressed demand.

    Los Angeles’ December export performance was even worse: Exports were down 41% year on year to 70,872 TEUs, the lowest monthly tally since October 2002, almost two decades ago.
    https://www.freightwaves.com/news/los-angeles-imports-slump-even-further-as-congestion-throttles-volume

  44. Michael Le Merchant says:

    I’ve never seen the entire yield curve rise this rapidly.

    At this pace, the 2 and 10 year yields will invert by the 2nd half of February. Once they invert the market crashes within the next 6 months.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FKMaqK0WUAcYNiK?format=jpg&name=4096×4096

  45. Michael Le Merchant says:

    The ‘son of Omicron’ is HERE: Even MORE contagious and ‘stealthy’ variant of Covid-19 has touched down in Australia and is spreading fast
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10450721/Son-Omicron-Covid-variant-touched-Australia.html

    • Fast Eddy says:

      With so many double and triple jab MOREONS we should see a Fast and Furious progression of variants … culminating in Devil Covid at some point … Son of Omicron could be the Devil… or perhaps it will be the Great Grand Son of Omicron that delivers the Fatal Blow.

      A moment of amusement…..

      EVENTFINDA .. a NZ ticket site … has put out a plea asking people to sign a petition … stating — we got behind the govt push to get people vaxxed (Summer of Freedom was the campaign if I recall) … and now they feel betrayed because the Red Traffic Light system has shut down the event industry (max 100 gatherings allowed under this).

      And Fast Eddy responds with F789 you and your petition — maybe if you don’t get behind this … then we’d not have this apartheid system … and you’d not feel betrayed… Shove your petition up your arse. (takes a bow and exits stage left)

      • Lidia17 says:

        FE, maybe you can run down this unverified audio. Tells of a NZ kid dropping dead after the jab and the parents being offered $450k to keep it quiet:
        https://gab.com/BravoZulu17/posts/107702351643045638

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Not seeing any other commentary on that … can’t imagine the govt would pay 450k … they just order msm and social media to hide this … and it didn’t happen.. even if it did

          I don’t know anyone in Greymouth to ask… mike – maybe you do?

Comments are closed.