2022: Energy limits are likely to push the world economy into recession

In my view, there are three ways a growing economy can be sustained:

  1. With a growing supply of cheap-to-produce energy products, matched to the economy’s energy needs.
  2. With growing debt and other indirect promises of future goods and services, such as rising asset prices.
  3. With growing complexity, such as greater mechanization of processes and supply lines that extend around the world.

All three of these approaches are reaching limits. The empty shelves some of us have been seeing recently are testimony to the fact that complexity is reaching a limit. And the growth in debt looks increasingly like a bubble that can easily be popped, perhaps by rising interest rates.

In my view, the first item listed is critical at this time: Is the supply of cheap-to-produce energy products growing fast enough to keep the world economy operating and the debt bubble inflated? My analysis suggests that it is not. There are two parts to this problem:

[a] The cost of producing fossil fuels and delivering them to where they are needed is rising rapidly because of the effects of depletion. This higher cost cannot be passed on to customers, without causing recession. Politicians will act to keep prices low for the benefit of consumers. Ultimately, these low prices will lead to falling production because of inadequate reinvestment to offset depletion.

[b] Non-fossil fuel energy products are not living up to the expectations of their developers. They are not available when they are needed, where they are needed, at a low enough cost for customers. Electricity prices don’t rise high enough to cover their true cost of production. Subsidies for wind and solar tend to drive nuclear electricity out of business, leaving an electricity situation that is worse, rather than better. Rolling blackouts can be expected to become an increasing problem.

In this post, I will explore the energy-related issues that are contributing to the recessionary trends that the world economy is facing, starting later in 2022.

[1] World oil supplies are unlikely to rise very rapidly in 2022 because of depletion and inadequate reinvestment. Even if oil prices rise higher in the first part of 2022, this action cannot offset years of underinvestment.

Figure 1. Crude oil and liquids production quantities through 2020 based on EIA data. “IEA Estimate” adds IEA indicated increases in 2021 and 2022 to historical EIA liquids estimates. Tverberg Estimate relates to crude oil production.

The IEA, in its Oil Market Report, December 2021, forecasts a 6.4-million-barrel increase in world oil production in 2022 over 2021. Indications through September of 2021 strongly suggest that there was only a small rebound (about 1 million bpd) in the world’s oil production in 2021 compared to 2020. In my view, the IEA’s view that liquids production will increase by a huge 6.4 million barrels a day between 2021 and 2022 defies common sense.

The basic reason why oil production is low is because oil prices have been too low for producers since about 2012. Companies have had to cut back on developing new fields in higher cost areas because oil prices have not been high enough to justify such investments. For example, producers from shale formations could add new wells outside the rapidly depleting “core” regions if the oil price were much higher, perhaps $120 to $150 per barrel. But US WTI oil prices averaged only $57 per barrel in 2019, $39 per barrel in 2020, and $68 per barrel in 2021, so this new investment has not been started.

Recently, oil prices have been over $80 per barrel, but even this is considered too high by politicians. For example, countries are releasing oil from their strategic oil reserves to try to force oil prices down. The reason why politicians are interested in low oil prices is because if the price of oil rises, both the price of food and the cost of commuting are likely to rise, since oil is used in farming and in commuting. Inflation is likely to become a problem, making citizens unhappy. Wages will go less far, and politicians who allow high oil prices will be voted out of office.

[2] Natural gas production can be expected to rise by 1.6% in 2022, but this small increase will not be enough to meet the needs of the world economy.

Figure 2. Natural gas production though 2020 based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. For 2020 and 2021, Tverberg estimates reflect increases similar to IEA indications, so only one indication is shown.

With natural gas production growing at a little less than 2% per year, a major issue is that there is not enough natural gas to “go around.” Natural gas is the smallest of the fossil fuels in quantity. We are depending on its growth to solve many problems, simultaneously:

  • To increase natural gas imports for countries whose own production is declining
  • To provide quick relief from inadequate production by wind turbines and solar panels, whenever such relief is needed
  • To offset declining coal consumption related to a combination of issues (depletion, high pollution, climate change concerns)
  • To help increase world electricity supply, as transportation and other processes are gradually electrified

Furthermore, the rate at which natural gas supply increases cannot easily be speeded up because (a) the development of new fields, (b) the development of transportation structures (pipeline or Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) ships), and (c) the development of storage facilities all require major upfront expenditures. All of these must be planned years in advance. They require huge amounts of resources of many kinds. The selling price of natural gas must be high enough to cover all of the resource and labor costs. For those familiar with the concept of Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI), the basic problem is that the delivered EROEI falls too low when all of the many parts of the system are considered.

Storage is extremely important for natural gas because fluctuations tend to occur in the quantity of natural gas the overall system requires. For example, if stored natural gas is available, it can be used when wind turbines are not producing enough electricity. Also, a huge amount of energy is needed in winter to keep homes warm and to keep the lights on. If sufficient natural gas can be stored for months at a time, it can help provide this additional energy.

As a gas, natural gas is difficult to store. In practice, underground caverns are used for storage, assuming caverns of the right type are available. Trying to build storage, if such caverns are not available, is almost certainly an expensive undertaking. In theory, importing natural gas by pipeline or LNG can transfer the storage problem to LNG producers. This is not a satisfactory solution, however. Without adequate storage available to sellers, this means that natural gas can be extracted for only part of the year and LNG ships can only be used for part of the year. As a result, return on investment is likely to be poor.

Now, in 2022, we are hitting the issue of very slowly rising natural gas production head-on in many parts of the world. Countries that import natural gas without long-term contracts are facing spiking prices. Countries in Europe and Asia are especially affected. The United States has mostly been isolated from the spiking prices thanks to producing its own natural gas. Also, only a small portion of the natural gas produced by the US is exported (9% in 2020).

The reason for the small export percentage is because shipping natural gas as LNG tends to be very expensive. Long-distance LNG shipping only makes economic sense if there is a several dollar (or more) price differential between the buyer’s price and the seller’s costs that can be used to cover the high transport costs.

We now seem to be reaching a period of spiking natural gas prices, especially for countries importing natural gas without long-term contracts. If natural gas prices rise, this will tend to make electricity prices rise because natural gas is often burned to produce electricity. Products made with high-priced electricity will be less competitive in a world market. Individual citizens will become unhappy with their high cost of heat and light.

High natural gas prices can have very adverse consequences. In areas with high prices, products made using natural gas as a raw material will tend to be squeezed out. One such product is urea, used as a nitrogen fertilizer. With less nitrogen fertilizer available, food production is likely to fall. If food prices rise in response to short supply, consumers will tend to reduce discretionary spending to ensure that there are sufficient funds for food. A reduction in discretionary spending is one way recession starts.

Inadequate growth in world natural gas production can be expected to hit poor countries especially hard. For example, a recent article mentions LNG suppliers backing out of planned deliveries of LNG to Pakistan, given the high prices available elsewhere. Another article indicates that Kosovo, a poor country in Europe, is experiencing rolling blackouts. Eventually, if natural gas available for export remains limited in supply, electricity blackouts can be expected to spread more widely, to less poor parts of Europe and around the world.

[3] World coal production can be expected to decline, further pushing the world economy toward recession.

Figure 3 shows my estimate for world coal production, next to a recent IEA forecast.

Figure 3. Coal production through 2020 based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. “IEA Estimate” adds IEA indicated increases to historical BP coal quantities. Tverberg Estimate provides lower estimates for 2021 and 2022, considering depletion issues.

Figure 3 shows that world coal consumption has not been rising for about a decade.

Coal seems to be having the same problem with rising costs as oil. The cost of producing the coal is rising because of depletion, but citizens cannot afford to pay more for end products made with coal, such as electricity, steel and solar panels. Coal producers need higher prices to cover their higher costs, but it becomes increasingly difficult to pass these higher costs on to consumers. This is because politicians want to keep electricity prices low to keep their citizens and businesses happy.

If the cost of electricity rises, the cost of goods made with high-priced electricity will tend to rise. Businesses will find their sales falling in response to higher prices. In turn, they will tend to lay off workers. This is a recipe for recession, but a slightly different one than the ones mentioned earlier. It also is a good way for politicians not to get re-elected. As a result, politicians will try to hide rising coal costs from customers. For example, laws may be enacted capping electricity prices that can be charged to customers. Because of this, some electricity companies may be forced out of business.

The decrease in coal production I am showing for 2022 is only 1%, but when this small reduction is combined with the growth problems shown for coal and oil and the rising world population, it means that world coal supplies will be stretched.

China is the world’s largest coal producer and consumer. A major concern is that the country has serious coal depletion problems. It has experienced rolling blackouts since the fall of 2020. It has tried to encourage its own production by limiting coal imports, thus keeping wholesale coal prices high for local producers. It also limits the extent to which high coal costs can be passed on to electricity customers. As a result, the 2021 profits of electricity companies are expected to be reduced.

[4] The US may have some untapped coal resources that could be tapped, if there is a plan to ship more natural gas to Europe and other areas in need of the fuel.

The possibility of additional US coal production occurs because coal production in the US seems to have occurred because of competition from incredibly inexpensive natural gas (Figure 4). To some extent, this low natural gas price results from laws prohibiting oil and gas companies from “flaring” (burning off) natural gas that is too expensive to produce relative to the price it can be sold for. Prohibitions against flaring are a type of mandated subsidy of natural gas production by the oil-producing portion of “Oil & Gas” companies. This required subsidy leads to part of the need for high oil prices, especially for companies drilling in shale formations.

Figure 4. US coal production amounts through 2020 are from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. Amounts for 2021 and 2022 are estimated based on forecasts from EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook. Natural gas prices are average annual Henry Hub spot prices per million Btus, based on EIA data.

A major reason why US coal extraction started to decline about 2009 is because a very large amount of shale gas production started becoming available then as a byproduct of oil production from shale. Oil producers were primarily interested in extracting oil because it (hopefully) sold for a high price. Natural gas was a byproduct whose collection was barely economic, given its low selling price. Also, the economy didn’t have uses, such as trucks powered by natural gas, for all of this extra natural gas production. Figure 4 suggests that wholesale natural gas prices dropped by close to half, in response to this extra supply.

With these low natural gas prices, as well as coal pollution concerns, a significant amount of US electricity production was switched from coal to natural gas. It is my view that this change left coal in the ground, potentially for later use. Thus, if natural gas prices rise again, US coal production could perhaps rise again. The catch, of course, is that many coal-fired electricity-generating plants in the US have been taken out of service. In addition, coal mines have been closed. Any increase in future coal production would likely take place very slowly because of the need for many simultaneous changes.

[5] On a combined basis, using Tverberg Estimates for 2021 and 2022, fossil fuel production in total takes a step down in 2020 and doesn’t rise much in 2021 and 2022.

Figure 5. Sum of Tverberg Estimates related to oil, coal, and natural gas. Oil includes natural gas liquids but not biofuels. Historical amounts are from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Figure 5 shows that on a combined basis, the overall energy being provided by fossil fuels is likely to remain lower in 2021 and 2022 than it was in 2018 and 2019. This is concerning, because the economy cannot go back to its 2019 level of “openness” and optional travel for sightseers, without a big step up in energy supply, especially for oil.

This same figure shows that the production of the three fossil fuels is somewhat similar in quantity: Oil is the highest, coal is second, and natural gas comes in third. However, oil shows a step down in 2020’s production from which it has not recovered. Coal shows a smoother pattern of rise and eventual fall. So far, natural gas has mostly been rising, but not very steeply in recent years.

[6] Alternatives to fossil fuels are not living up to early expectations. Electricity from wind turbines and solar panels is not available when it is needed, requiring a great deal of back-up electricity generated by fossil fuels or nuclear. The total quantity of non-fossil fuel electricity is far too low. A transition now will simply lead to electricity blackouts and recession.

Figure 6 shows a summary of non-fossil fuel energy production for the years 2000 through 2020, without a projection to 2022. For clarification, wind and solar are part of the electrical renewables category.

Figure 6. World energy production for various categories, based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Figure 6 shows that nuclear electricity production has been declining at the same time that the production of electrical renewables has been increasing. In fact, a significant decrease in nuclear electricity is planned in Europe in 2022. This reduction in nuclear electricity is part of what is causing the concern about electricity supply for Europe for 2022.

The addition of wind and solar to an electrical grid seems to encourage the closure of nuclear electricity plants, even if they have many years of safe production still ahead of them. This happens because wind and solar are given the subsidy of “going first,” if they happen to have electricity available. Wind and solar may also be subsidized in other ways.

The net result of this arrangement is that wholesale electricity prices set through competitive markets quite frequently fall too low for other electricity producers (apart from wind and solar). For example, wind and solar electricity that is produced during weekends may be unneeded because many businesses are closed. Electricity produced by wind and solar in the spring and fall may be unneeded because heating and cooling needs tend to be low at these times of the year. Wind and solar electricity providers are not asked to cut back supply because their production is unneeded; instead, low (or negative) prices encourage other electricity producers to cut back supply.

Nuclear electricity producers are particularly adversely affected by this pricing arrangement because they cannot save money by cutting back their output when wind and solar are over-producing electricity, relative to demand. This strange pricing arrangement leads to unacceptably low profits for many nuclear electricity providers. They may voluntarily choose to be closed. Local governments find that if they want to keep their nuclear electricity producers, they need to subsidize them.

Wind and solar, with their subsidies, tend to look more profitable to investors, even though they cannot support the economy without a substantial amount of supplementary electricity production from other electricity providers, which, perversely, they are driving out of business through their subsidized pricing structure.

The fact that wind and solar cannot be depended upon has become increasingly obvious in recent months, as coal, natural gas and electricity prices have spiked in Europe because of low wind production. In theory, coal and natural gas imports should make up the shortfall, at a reasonable price. But total volumes available for import have not been increasing in the quantities that consumers need them to increase. And, as mentioned above, nuclear electricity production is increasingly unavailable as well.

[7] The total quantity of non-fossil fuel energy supplies is not very large, relative to the quantity of fossil fuel energy. Even if these non-fossil fuel energy supplies increase at a trend rate similar to that in the recent past, they do not make up for the projected fossil fuel production deficit.

Figure 7. Total energy production, based on the fossil fuel estimates in Figure 5 together with non-fossil fuels in Figure 6.

With respect to anticipated future non-fossil fuel electricity generation, one issue is how much nuclear is being shut off. I would imagine these current closure schedules could change, if countries become aware that they may be facing rolling blackouts without nuclear.

A second issue is the growing awareness that renewables don’t really work as intended. Why add more if they don’t really work?

A third issue is new studies suggesting that prices being paid for locally generated electricity may be too generous. Based on such an analysis, California is proposing a major reduction to its payments for renewable-generated electricity, starting July 1, 2022. This type of change could reduce new installations of solar panels on homes in California. Other locations may decide to make similar changes.

I have shown two estimates of future non-fossil fuel energy supply in Figure 7. The high estimate reflects a 4.5% annual increase in the total supply, in line with recent past increases for the group in total. The lower one assumes that 2021 production is similar to that in 2020 (because of more nuclear being closed, for example). Production for 2022 represents a 5% decrease from 2021’s production.

Regardless of which assumption is made, growth in non-fossil fuel electricity supply is not very important in the overall total. The world economy is still mostly powered by fossil fuels. The share of non-fossil fuels relative to total energy ranges from 16% to 18% in 2020, based on my low and high estimates.

[8] The energy narrative we are being told is mostly the narrative that politicians would like us to believe, rather than the narrative that historians and physicists would develop.

Politicians would like us to believe that we live in a world of everlasting economic growth and that the only thing we should fear is climate change. They base their analyses on models by economists who seem to think that an “invisible hand” will fix all problems. The economy can always grow; enough fossil fuels and other resources will always be available. Governments seem to be able to print money; somehow, this money will be transformed into physical goods and services. With these assumptions, the only problems are distant ones that central banks and carbon taxes can handle.

The realists are historians and physicists. They tell us that a huge number of past economies have collapsed when their populations attempted to grow at the same time that their resource bases were depleting. These realists tell us that there is a high probability that our current economy will eventually collapse, as well.

Figure 8. The Seneca Cliff by Ugo Bardi

The general shape that economic growth is likely to take is that of a “Seneca Curve” or “Seneca Cliff.” In the words of Lucius Annaeus Seneca in the first century CE, “Increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.” If we think of the amount graphed as the total quantity of goods and services received by citizens, the amount tends to rise slowly, gradually plateaus and then falls.

We now seem to be encountering lower energy supply while population continues to rise. It takes energy for any activity that we think of as contributing to GDP to occur. We should not be surprised if we are at the edge of a recession. If we cannot get our energy problems solved, the downturn could be very long-lasting.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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4,903 Responses to 2022: Energy limits are likely to push the world economy into recession

  1. Nucleic acid vaccines use mRNA to give cells instructions on how to produce a desired protein. Libre de Droit/iStock via Getty Images
    How mRNA and DNA vaccines could soon treat cancers, HIV, autoimmune disorders and genetic diseases
    Deborah Fuller, University of Washington
    January 24, 2022 8.31am EST
    The two most successful coronavirus vaccines developed in the U.S. – the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines – are both mRNA vaccines. The idea of using genetic material to produce an immune response has opened up a world of research and potential medical uses far out of reach of traditional vaccines. Deborah Fuller is a microbiologist at the University of Washington who has been studying genetic vaccines for more than 20 years. We spoke to her about the future of mRNA vaccines for The Conversation Weekly podcast.

    Below are excerpts from that conversation which have been edited for length and clarity.

    How long have gene-based vaccines been in development?
    This type of vaccine has been in the works for about 30 years. Nucleic acid vaccines are based on the idea that DNA makes RNA and then RNA makes proteins. For any given protein, once we know the genetic sequence or code, we can design an mRNA or DNA molecule that prompts a person’s cells to start making it.

    When we first thought about this idea of putting a genetic code into somebody’s cells, we were studying both DNA and RNA. The mRNA vaccines did not work very well at first. They were unstable and they caused pretty strong immune responses that were not necessarily desirable. For a very long time DNA vaccines took the front seat, and the very first clinical trials were with a DNA vaccine.

    But about seven or eight years ago, mRNA vaccines started to take the lead. Researchers solved a lot of the problems – notably the instability – and discovered new technologies to deliver mRNA into cells and ways of modifying the coding sequence to make the vaccines a lot more safe to use in humans.

    Once those problems were solved, the technology was really poised to become a revolutionary tool for medicine. This was just when COVID-19 hit.

    Go to link for full discussion…

    https://theconversation.com/amp/how-mrna-and-dna-vaccines-could-soon-treat-cancers-hiv-autoimmune-disorders-and-genetic-diseases-170772

    With an mRNA or DNA vaccine, the goal is to make your body better able to recognize the very specific neoantigens the cancer cell has produced. If your immune system can recognize and see those better, it will attack the cancer cells and eliminate them from the body.

    This same strategy can be applied to the elimination of chronic infections like HIV, hepatitis B and herpes. These viruses infect the human body and stay in the body forever unless the immune system eliminates them. Similar to the way nucleic acid vaccines can train the immune system to eliminate cancer cells, they can be used to train our immune cells to recognize and eliminate chronically infected cells.

    …….Today, there are a number of ongoing mRNA clinical trials for the treatment of melanoma, prostate cancer, ovarian cancer, breast cancer, leukemia, glioblastoma and others, and there have been some promising outcomes. Moderna recently announced promising results with its phase 1 trial using mRNA to treat solid tumors and lymphoma

    There are also a lot of ongoing trials looking at cancer DNA vaccines, because DNA vaccines are particularly effective in inducing T cell responses. A company called Inovio recently demonstrated a significant impact on cervical cancer caused by human papilloma virus in women using a DNA vaccine.

    So much for Fast Eddie’s CEP…seems there is 🤑😷💉🤪in the JAB… MOReON is coming

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Let’s hope that these researchers look at long-term effects as well as short term effects. Also, test them on animals before humans.

      I don’t think that the world can afford to spend any more on medical care. I hope that they figure out a way to make the treatments very inexpensive, as well.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        You mean test on humans before animals no?

        If the treatment is ultimately destined for humans — the tests should be done on humans.

        There are plenty of MOREONS who will volunteer — and many more who will do it for $$$.

        Why pick on the poor animals

        What about all these people — they are f789 already – experiment on them — they were willing to volunteer even when they were perfectly healthy — surely now that they are physical wrecks … they’d be on board

        And then there is norm – he volunteered and even took boosters knowing the possible downside… norm — why don’t you sign up and save the animals ….

        https://www.foxnews.com/media/ohio-woman-daughter-covid-vaccine-reaction-wheelchair

        • When you are sick with a terminal illness you just give them a “,blank cheque” and plead , “Make me well”!
          Had a Sister, age 33, that was NOT diagnosed with colon cancer back in the late 1980s because she was too young and when it was it was not good. Believe me, one does not want to go through the “treatment” she endured.
          She was just unlucky and now 50 year olds are recommended to get checked for colon cancer because it is increasing among the population.
          Betcha once with is offered as a treatment there will be no problem getting patients.
          BTW. My primary care physicians have been trying to get me checked out and five years ago was my first.
          Saw a man on TV that said his doctor asked him to be checked and he blew him off, five years later he had surgery and a bag because of it.
          I was lucky because I’m a perfect A ole.
          Due for another one this year…..we shall see.
          I agree with Gail our modern diet and processed foods create a host of illnesses.
          Remember once reading that in some parts of the world in the past, “Doctors” were paid only if you were healthy…once sick no 🤑..

          • Fast Eddy says:

            When I came to NZ and registered at the local clinic they pestered me to get checked out … even though I’d just had a full medical to get into the country… I eventually relented and as expected all was well.

            Since then I don’t ever get checked out. Why? Because I don’t stuff my maw with garbage… I drink almost never … never smoked.. and exercise regularly….

            I was at the doctor some years ago to get melatonin for jet lag (can’t buy it OTC in NZ) and I was mentioning how reading a book by a Harvard med school professor about how high carb diets cause inflammation and many illnesses … and how I had cut out carbs except prior to playing hockey and felt better – even an old shoulder injury had improved dramatically (no doubt because of less inflammation)…

            His response — oh that doesn’t really work — there are amazing drugs being developed that target your specific genetic make up blah blah blah…

            And I ‘m think f789 you… instead of trying to promote a healthy lifestyle you want to peddle magic pills…you are a f789ing MOREON… (isn’t just about everyone)…

            I will never get checked out again – why would I?

            I’ve not been to a doctor since – other than the taunt and ridicule Viv Tate … f789 that withered old bag.. most of these doctors need to be bitch slapped and put in their place…

            https://pdfhost.io/v/Hb39gvsHG_VAERS_Heart_Damage_V6

            And if I come down with something fatal… who gives a shit? Why fear death? Nobody lives forever. I have no idea why anyone would want to. It’s more interesting to see what’s behind the curtain (probably nothing..) than to be slowly poisoned by chemo or other garbage…. f789 suffering… anyone who is suffering should take a fist full of Oxy.

            This is Fast Eddy’s philosophy on life (and death… and check ups)

            • All I can say if one day you awake and have a pain and are force to have it checked out and get a bad prognosis, you just may react differently.
              Hope it doesn’t happen so you can enjoy your viewing of all the bedlum coming soon at your internet screen

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Same weight as in high school… 120/80 BP … zero health issues… odds of that day coming before the CEP completes are near zero… and if in the off chance it does come … oh well… if it’s terminal or if there is a significant level discomfort involved to treat it… Fast Eddy will reach for the Oxycontin…

              I am not sure why God worshippers are so keen to do whatever it takes to stay alive…

              Is it because they’ve been naughty and believe they are going to hell? Maybe hell is a VIP room with blow and hotties 24/7? What’s wrong with going there?

              Or is it because they don’t really believe in the afterlife?

              Why would anyone live their life suffering? F789 that.

    • Bobby says:

      Okay, great…
      One injection and the human genome of an individual is updated, right?
      ‘All fixed, go about your life, because the researchers now KNOW what they’re doing.

      Sorry the narrative is broken, we’re not even doing science on this anymore.

      The compliant have received mRNA injections 1, 2,3, 4 and so on, but with no result.
      Conclusion, it’s not working!!. Wrong tool for the wrong application, yet the highly conditioned and fearful just keep bounding on towards a technological solution, hypnotised by the mass formation and self confirmation bias that come from mass media saturation and individuals inability to internalise that they have been seriously harmed AND they can’t un-inject

      Few people realise, at best the motivation is straight greed, at worst perhaps sinister intent. All possibilities must be considered.

      Because reality is not fitting TPTB’s narrative the offical hypothesis is extended to some new rational, like herd immunity for instance.

      In real science we deliberately try to disprove our hypothesis, but that type of thinking in the offical mindset died some time ago.

      Talking to the injected and challenging their narrative is like telling a zombie not to eat people.

      The idea to inject children to save the aged is repugnant.
      Your genetic narrative strand sequence is more than broken.
      You can’t fix it.

  2. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Canada a subsidiary of Pfizer

    Federal government won’t budge on vaccine mandate for truckers as convoy heads for Ottawa

    LOL! – “Our plan is to defeat COVID and end the pandemic as quickly as possible. What we’re doing right now is for the protection of truck drivers but also for the protection of our supply chains and our economy,” Alghabra said. “The best way to deal with COVID is through vaccination.”
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/vaccine-mandate-double-down-convoy-1.6326821

  3. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Don’t despair, Marek’s is on the way!

    6 Pack: Pfizer, Fauci press forward on 3 additional Omicron-specific mRNA shots!

    Make it a six pack.

    Pfizer announced Tuesday, to great fanfare from the cattle class, that they are officially starting trials for an Omicron-specific COVID vaccine on their novel mRNA platform.

    The projected protocol calls for an additional two dose series followed by a booster some months after the back to back shots. For people who are already triple injected, that can make for 6 shots in total over the course of a couple years, or even sooner, if Pfizer soon receives expedited authorization for its latest formulation.
    https://dossier.substack.com/p/6-pack-pfizer-fauci-press-forward

  4. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Their alternate option if jab extermination doesn’t go as planned…

    Extremists see US power grid as target, gov’t report warns

    Extremist groups in the United States appear to increasingly view attacking the power grid as a means of disrupting the country, according to a government report aimed at law enforcement agencies and utility operators.

    Domestic extremists “have developed credible, specific plans to attack electricity infrastructure since at least 2020,” according to the report from the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis. The document, dated Monday, was obtained Tuesday by The Associated Press.

    The report warns that extremists “adhering to a range of ideologies will likely continue to plot and encourage physical attacks against electrical infrastructure,” which includes more than 6,400 power plants and 450,000 miles of high-voltage transmission lines that span the country.
    https://apnews.com/article/business-united-states-law-enforcement-agencies-9e3d1d4d4cd429b69a787235caa7e4b8

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I can believe groups want to attack the US grid.

      On the other hand, adding an increasing amount of intermittent electricity to the grid at the same time stable supply (such as coal and nuclear) is removed, is a recipe for wrecking the grid, without the use of physical attacks. Even the goofy pricing system (giving wind and solar the advantage of going first) has a tendency to bring down the electrical providers able to give back-up supply, so is a problem.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I do not see how any of the powers can collide head on without causing a Korowicz Incident … and collapsing global supply chains. Gone are the days of stockpiles in warehouses and even the slightest amount of self-sufficiency.

        If we get all out war in Ukraine that is because BAU is finished already — and they need a reason to unleash the nukes to finish us off.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          I am afraid you are right.

        • Student says:

          My impression is that the conflict in Ukraine needs to start soon because the narrative of Covid is in crisis.
          But the objective, in my view, is a long term and low intensity conflict, in order to make energy problems stable for long time, but with the excuse of the conflict and not for the real general situation of our ‘finite world’.
          It is a perfect cover.

        • geno mir
          geno mir says:

          USA needs distraction but Russia keeps postponing it. What a funny situation, isn’t it? The Russians are just about to invade 404, any second now. How Russia dares to delay the invasion for more than 60 days?
          The only thing materlizing from this invasion is the even deeper sinking of western institutions and security apparatus. How can be that a gas station in the middle of the nothing is making the whole west stutter?
          In the Balakns we have a saying: ‘When people say that your sister is a whore it is pointless to inform them you don’t have a sister’. Russia got tired of informing interlocutors and now everytime the proverbial sister is mentioned they just go along and say that yes, this sister is dirty slut.
          As for those nukes you speak FE, well I have a bad news. They won’t fly. Russia updated its nuclear doctrine, the gist is that russia will send the first voley of sarmats to the exact locations of the decision makers and their families. The change in Russia’s nuclear doctrine is the reason why USA abruptley stopped talking about Global Prompt and Preemptive Strike. The geriatrics are scared that they can die before reaching 90. LOL. It is almost like late USSR and present USA have switched places.
          By the way, Eddy, I do think NZ got you. Why advocating for easy and swift death of the species? The plough girls have soften you. Only maximum pain and suffering is appropriate exit for homo sapiens recens. Everything else is just so not us.

      • “I can believe groups want to attack the US grid.”

        I can’t – at least not when it comes to supposed “domestic extremist” groups.

        What I can believe, however, is that supposed “domestic extremist” groups will be a useful fiction invoked by the government as our infrastructure continues to crumble due to declining energy inputs.

        “Domestic extremists ‘have developed credible, specific plans to attack electricity infrastructure since at least 2020.'” Funny that, just as we’re picking up speed sliding down the energy depletion rollercoaster. You didn’t hear about these plots during the energy heyday of our modern civilization, when everyone, including supposed “domestic extremist” groups were benefitting greatly from a seemingly endless, easy oil supply.

        “Cyber attacks” will be another useful fiction to explain away decommissioning parts of the grid as the people running the show continue their energy triage and rationing efforts.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          “What I can believe, however, is that supposed “domestic extremist” groups will be a useful fiction invoked by the government as our infrastructure continues to crumble due to declining energy inputs.”

          You are probably correct in saying that.

          There are probably going to be a lot of poor people with problems, but they will not be interested in trying to take down the grid. They will be interested in their next meal. Or perhaps they will be interested in attacking public officials that they blame for their problems.

    • Lastcall says:

      Extremism is interesting term.
      In my mind extremists are pushing a medically extreme injection protocol which is already causing massive disruptions.
      All based on a hyped up yearly flu.
      Guess this comment is extremist thinking too?

    • Lastcall says:

      A functioning electrical grid is key to a technocracy, hence the focus methinks.
      A very vulnerable technotopia.
      Whats the value of your tech empire without them electrons to feed it.
      Same as your gated community housing estates; value evaporates as law and order disappears.

  5. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Hutterites supporting Trucker Convoy

    This isn’t just about politics anymore. This is about whether Canada will stay a free country or become a commie dictatorship.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJ6mLMaUYAs-CaZ?format=jpg&name=medium

  6. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    The likelihood is that Russia will invade Ukraine, here’s why and what the objectives are likely to be.

    In addition to the Black Sea deposits in Crimean waters, Ukraine has massive gas reserves in the east of the country, in particular the huge Yuzivske field. With these deposits, Ukraine holds 5.4 trillion cubic metres of gas, the third largest reserves in Europe.

    When Russia occupied Crimea in 2014 Ukraine lost, and Russia gained, the huge gas deposits under the Scythian section of the Black Sea Shelf.

    The Black Sea Shelf deposits had been under exploration for several years and Ukraine finally awarded the licences for their exploration in August 2012. Ukraine did not possess the technology or expertise to exploit the deposits itself (they are very deep), and so the contracts were inevitably going to go abroad.

    Given the very close association between then Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and President Putin, the Kremlin expected the contracts would be issued to the Russian energy giant, Gazprom. But the Kremlin should have foreseen a problem. Until the Russian occupation of Crimea and the Donbas in eastern Ukraine, Ukraine imported almost all its gas from Gazprom. Gazprom had, in turn, imposed numerous price hikes on Ukraine and Ukraine’s gas distributor Naftogaz, had struggled to pay the bills. By 2014, Naftogaz owed Gazprom US$4.5 billion. Because of the repeated price hikes and resulting tensions between Gazprom and Naftogaz, Ukraine had been trying to establish other, non-Russian supplies. It turned to Europe for them, and when the contract licences were issued for exploitation of Ukraine’s on gas they went not to Gazprom and Russia, but to a group led by American ExxonMobil but including Dutch-British Royal Dutch Shell and Romanian OMV Petrom, working with the Ukrainian state company Nadra.

    In the meantime, as I say, Ukraine was looking to diversify its gas supply. Here enters the European Union and one of the causes of Russian anger towards the EU.

    Europe at the time (2013) imported around 39% of its gas from Russia (in 2019 it was 41.1%) and much of the gas that Ukraine wanted to import from the EU was in fact re-directed Russian gas. Gazprom contracts with EU energy importing companies forbade such redirection and resale, but in 2006 these clauses were removed because they infringed Article 81 of the European Community Treaty (on restrictive business practices). Legally this meant that European companies had every right to re-export gas, no matter where they’d got it from. Indeed, Ukraine now imports most of its gas from Hungary and Poland. But, can anyone really see President Putin accepting such a thing passively?
    https://henrybolton.substack.com/p/the-likelihood-is-that-russia-will

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I found this article from March 2021, as well:

      https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/why-the-black-sea-could-emerge-as-the-worlds-next-great-energy-battleground/

      The exact volumes of gas currently lying deep underneath the Black Sea are not yet known. Rough estimates predict that the Ukrainian shelf may contain more than two trillion cubic meters of gas. The exact figure is yet to be determined since two-thirds of the country’s maritime area passed to de facto Russian control following Moscow’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. Ukraine’s state energy company Naftogaz is preparing to explore 32 remaining blocks.

      Meanwhile, Turkey made international headlines in 2020 when it said reserves at its offshore Tuna-1 exploration zone may be as high as 405 billion cubic meters. Further reserves could be discovered in adjacent blocks.

      To the west, Romania is thought to hold anything between 150-200 bcm of offshore reserves, being one of the most advanced littoral countries in terms of developing resources.

      Bulgaria’s total reserves are unknown but just one of its as-yet unexplored fields, Khan Asparuh, is thought to contain 100 bcm. If this figure proves to be correct, these reserves alone could cover the country’s annual demand for more than 30 years.

      To the east, Georgia may have overall recoverable gas resources of 266 billion cubic meters, although how much of these reserves lie in its Black Sea economic zone has yet to be determined.

      In recent months, Romanian-Austrian integrated oil and gas company, OMV Petrom, which has been developing Romania’s Neptun Deep project together with US company ExxonMobil, has been seeking cooperation opportunities with neighboring countries.

      I also expect that Ukrainian coal reserves could have some bearing on the interest others have in the country now. If there really is a shortage of coal and natural gas, prices could (in theory) be high enough to encourage extraction. If Russia can take over Ukrainian production, it would help its ability to continue, at the same time quite a bit of the world is falling apart.

    • Student says:

      That could be for sure, but we have also to wonder why EU and US didn’t help Ukraine to exploit in the past years and months those reserves.
      They could easiliy do it, putting money there instead of putting money in arms to be added in Ukraine..
      Having said that we have to remember that Russia has always had its main naval fleet in Crimea and we couldn’t think that they would have left it in a European Crimea.
      We have also to consider that adding Nato troops and missiles in Ukraine is like add Chinese or Russian troops and missiles in Mexico.
      After we have considered all the positions we can side for one or the other or even for no one.
      If we keep our independence of judgment I think we may admit that going to foment an Ukrainian conflict is a bad idea, but it will happen anyway.

      • “we have also to wonder why EU and US didn’t help Ukraine to exploit in the past years and months those reserves”

        Fantasy reserves?

      • geno mir
        geno mir says:

        Bravo, Student! Grand example of what common sense can achieve in terms of analysis. As for those alleged gas reserves they are as important and feasible as the coal reserves under north sea.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I did look… but I closed it when I read the title … this might resonate with someone who believed oil was abiotic or that renewable energy and EVs are the future.

  7. Fred says:

    Ghost World coming soon to a town near you? Mike Adams latest:

    https://www.naturalnews.com/2022-01-25-ghost-world-audiobook-how-to-survive-the-post-vaccine-die-off-and-radical-economic-fracturing.html
    https://www.ghostworld.co
    https://www.naturalnews.com/files/Ghost-World-2022-2032.pdf

    He’s always at the cataclysmic end of possible scenarios, but who knows how it’s going to go?

    Working age deaths are up 40% per Life Insurance Co CEOs.

    UK overall deaths were up 16% vs 5 yr average a few weeks back, now they’re down 6%.

    Germany overall deaths are up 20% vs 5 yr average.

    Boost me baby, boost me all night long . . .

    • deimetri
      deimetri says:

      In a recent interview Sergej Karaganov, who heads the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, explained why invading the Ukraine is very dumb idea:

      [O]f course, we absolutely do not need to fight for Ukraine to the last Ukrainian, we certainly do not want to fight there. All this squealing about the fact that we are going to capture Kiev, it is about nothing. Yes, our military is standing at the Ukrainian border, but only so that on the other side it does not occur to anyone to break into the Donbass. And the capture of Ukraine in our military plans, I’m sure, is not included. If only for the reason that capturing a country that is castrated economically, morally and intellectually, a country with a destroyed infrastructure and an embittered population is the worst-case scenario. The worst thing America can do for us is to give us Ukraine in the form they brought it to.

      https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/us-russian-talks-are-a-sign-of-progress.html#more

      Apparently the Russians can shell the Ukrainians from their side of the border if Ukraine gets the dumb idea to attack the ethnic Russians in Donbass..Why would they want Ukraine after the west has wrecked their magic on it?

      • deimetri
        deimetri says:

        Uh, that was a reply to Michael Le Merchant’s Ukraine comment above..

      • Lidia17 says:

        It doesn’t matter if it’s a dumb idea or not, a certain Ukrainian faction appears to’ve already paid the Biden crime family $30million plus protection money.

        Biden, Kerry, Romney, Pelosi progeny are all tied to energy co.s there.

      • JesseJames says:

        diemetri….BRAVO!
        Well Said…the Ukaine is a shell of a functioning country…” a country that is castrated economically, morally and intellectually, a country with a destroyed infrastructure and an embittered population is the worst-case scenario. ” Also, millions of Ukrainians have migrated hoping to desperately avoid starvation and economic collapse.
        The US can take credit for much of this.
        The Ukraine has purchased (with Western provided money) loitering drones from Turkey (like the ones so spectacularly used by Azerbaijan against Armenia) A while back they dropped a missile on a Donbass vehicle. I am guessing that after this they had to have been warned that if they kept this up, Russia would respond somehow, my guess would be to destroy their inventory of drones or airport.
        Russia would never invade and try to occupy Ukraine. They don’t need to destroy Ukraine. It is destroying itself.
        They will defend the Donbass if needed though.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Ghost World audiobook now available for download: How to survive the post-vaccine die-off and radical economic fracturing – full download of MP3 files and PDF transcript

      hahahahaahahaha .. please save the bandwidth

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This is interesting. It sounds like Mike Adams is thinking along the same lines that many of the commenters here are thinking, perhaps with more details though out. His book Ghost World 2022-2032 is free–as a PDF or as audio tapes. The PDF link is given above.

      Adams points out that a disproportionately large share of Democrats have been vaccinated. Thus, in his view, a disproportionate share of Democrats will die off in the next 10 years, say 30%, from the adverse effects of the vaccine. One of his comments in his book is

      It’s sort of the one thing that Democrats are doing that is pro-America, is removing themselves from the gene pool, removing their communist ideas, it’s actually a benefit to America as a whole. Not that we wish that upon anyone, but they have chosen to remove themselves. They’ve won the Darwin Award, so to speak, and the result is that there will be fewer communists and fewer Marxists, and thus, they won’t be pushing the country so radically to the left.

      I don’t think I would put it exactly that way, but if the vaccines are as bad as many think they are, this could be precisely the result.

  8. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Spain probably the first domino to fall in Europe

    PPI at 35.9%!
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJ-9V4lWYAU1zlQ?format=png&name=large

  9. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Pathological prion isoforms enhance cancer drug resistance, helping tumors become even more aggressive. Melatonin is a “broad-based metabolic buffer” that can stop this feedback cycle: stress=>prions=>cancer=>stress & resensitize cancer cells to therapy.
    https://www.mdpi.com/1420-3049/27/3/705

  10. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Japan has formally given its oil refiners a direct subsidy of 3 cents per liter of gasoline, so they keep their margins and don’t raise retail prices
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJ75Ki1WYAE8MgQ?format=jpg&name=small

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Helps keep Japan’s demand up, so slightly raises world price of gasoline, I would expect.

  11. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Russia Cuts Key Oil Flows Just as Demand Looks Set to Jump

    (Bloomberg) — Russia’s exports of its main grade of crude oil will slump to a five-month low in February, underscoring the challenges the country faces bringing supply to the global market at a time when there’s optimism over a demand recovery.

    The world’s second-largest oil exporter will ship 1.31 million barrels a day of its flagship Urals crude from the nation’s Baltic seaports next month. That’s the smallest flow since September. Much of that crude ends up at refineries in northwest Europe.

    It’s difficult to know what the export slump will mean for the nation’s oil production, which is meant to be rising in line with its commitments to OPEC+. Russia’s domestic refineries appear to be running hard — potentially soaking up barrels that would otherwise go for export — and Russia also looks set to send more crude directly into Europe through its giant Druzhba pipeline network this year.
    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/russia-cuts-key-oil-flows-just-as-demand-looks-set-to-jump-1.1712877

    • Michael Le Merchant
      Michael Le Merchant says:

      Mideast would struggle to cover Russian oil loss

      Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq would struggle to cover the shortfall in crude supply created by a blanket ban on Russian energy exports as they have already allocated their annual term supplies, according to sources close to the matter.

      Although trading sources say the ensuing European energy crisis will probably steer officials in Brussels and Washington away from strict energy sector sanctions in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, EU foreign ministers and the White House have been deliberating potential retaliatory measures against Moscow should it proceed with military action, and the US has hinted that Russian oil and gas could be included.

      A blanket ban on Russian oil exports would severely curtail the availability of sour crude at a time when similar-quality supplies from Iran and Venezuela are also subject to sanctions. Russia exports up to 1.5mn b/d of Urals crude from Baltic Sea ports, another 400,000 b/d from the Black Sea terminal at Novorossiysk and up to 800,000 b/d by pipeline to central and eastern Europe.
      https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2295153-mideast-would-struggle-to-cover-russian-oil-loss

    • Michael Le Merchant
      Michael Le Merchant says:

      Anticipating Russian Fuel Cutoff, White House Looks To Africa, Asia For Backup Sources

      The Biden Administration announced Tuesday it is seeking alternative sources of fuel in the Middle East, North Africa, Asia and the U.S. because Russia—which provides about a third of Europe’s fossil fuel—could cut off shipments amidst escalating conflict over Ukraine.
      https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacharysmith/2022/01/25/anticipating-russian-fuel-cutoff-white-house-looks-to-africa-asia-for-backup-sources/?sh=5a30da8b33c2

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        If there is not enough oil to go around, some countries gets cut off. Countries that cannot afford the imports are high on the list. But Russia has the power to choose which countries get the imports. I would not recommend heating up a conflict with Ukraine.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This is an article from July 28, 2021, about Urals crude oil production.
      https://www.reuters.com/article/russia-oil-urals/high-prices-low-output-keep-russias-urals-crude-oil-in-europe-idUSL8N2P4333

      It sounds like there was a lot of problem with production back then, but most of the supply shortfall landed in China. Presumably, China found other oil elsewhere. Europe actually received more oil in the first have of 2021 than it had used in the corresponding period in 2020. This is what it says:

      the port of Rotterdam, Europe’s biggest oil hub, received 9.7 million tonnes of Urals in the first half of this year, up from 7.3 million tonnes in the same period last year.

      At the same time, supplies of seaborne Urals cargoes to China plunged to 1.8 million tonnes from 7.86 million in the first half of 2020.

      If we add the two amounts together, it sounds like Ural’s crude oil production was down in 2021 relative to 2020. (This report doesn’t tell us about Ural’s crude oil shipped by pipeline, as far as I can tell, so the total may be higher.)

      Exploitation of the Ural oil fields seems to have begun in 1929, so we shouldn’t be surprised if supply is running low.

      https://www.britannica.com/place/Volga-Ural-Petroleum-and-Gas-Province

  12. Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
    Ed says:

    https://www.rt.com/business/546635-energy-storage-hottest-market/

    “Batteries will play an increasingly important role in allowing high levels of penetration of variable renewable energy like wind and solar on the grid,” the FT quoted Oxford Institute for Energy Studies research fellow Barbara Finamore as saying.

    “The [investment] numbers are changing so fast, people cannot keep up with how many gigafactories are in the pipeline.”

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Hahahahaha… these people actually believe this is possible?

      Mass psychosis strikes again!

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The quantity of batteries required is greater than anyone could imagine. It is hard to believe that the world could come up with materials for all of these batteries.

  13. Another interesting update from Joe Blogs on the gas and power cuts in Turkey. Turkish industry is having all its electricity cut off for 4 days (at least). There was mention of 10 days earlier.

    TURKEY – INDUSTRY SHUTS DOWN as Electricity is CUT OFF for 4 DAYS – Over 67,000 Businesses Affected
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvWur0oRbm0

    The profile of Turkey’s use of gas, for electricity, industry and domestic, looks very similar to that of the UK. What happens in Turkey could happen here.

    The reason Turkey is having such serious gas supplies issues now is because gas supplies from Iran (16% of Turkeys requirements) have been cut due to ‘technical difficulties’. I am sure that I read somewhere this morning that Iran is currently having difficulties supplying enough gas to its own people. Turkey seems to be having particularly bad winter weather at the moment. See segment three of the video. What next?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I imagine the problem is just what you said: Iran needs all of the natural gas it is currently pumping for its own people. There two major constraints: (a) Amounts pipelines can carry at a given time, and (b) Amounts Iran has available to sell, given its day-to-day extraction capability and its storage.

      Cold weather could have two adverse impacts: (a) Freeze up pumping capabilities, so less is produced, (b) Need for more natural gas for Iran’s own people.

      If a natural gas importing country expects to have natural gas in the winter, it needs to have storage for this natural gas. It needs to fill up this storage during summer, when the demand for natural gas isn’t so high.

      Storage seems to be done in various kinds of caverns. Depleted natural gas caverns are one such place. Another is salt caverns. If Turkey doesn’t have caverns of the right type or if it has such caverns, but does not use them for this purpose, it can find its gas supply cut off, when the natural gas exporter cannot supply the gas it needs.

  14. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    LOL! They are never gonna give up

    New York mask mandate back in effect after a judge at higher appeals court grants stay.

  15. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    The Great Carbon-CON continues..

    Shell’s massive carbon capture facility in Canada emits far more than it captures, study says
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/24/shell-ccs-facility-in-canada-emits-more-than-it-captures-study-says.html

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I haven’t looked at this study, so I don’t know whether it is right or wrong. I do know that it is hard to get much of a net savings. It is necessary to burn a whole lot more fossil fuels to have the energy the plant needs to do the sequestering. The sequestering process only eliminates a portion of the CO2, so that some of the larger quantity of fuel escapes.

  16. Fast Eddy says:

    Don’t think most people are MOREONS? Read this:

    4th BOOSTER with Israel government shows you classically, what INSANITY is; IMO, this is clearest definition; their clinical trials showed 4th boost does NOT WORK, yet health ministry backs 4th dose??

    If aim is to damage their society, to cause variants, to take their people to a place that we have no idea what will happen as this multiple boosting has not been studied, then on the right track

    https://palexander.substack.com/p/4th-booster-with-israel-government

    norm – your throughs on the 4th shot

  17. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Ontario Liberal Leader wants Ontario to become Quebec:
    https://ontarioliberal.ca/doug-fords-half-measures-threaten-more-closures/

  18. Fast Eddy says:

    Dunce says — this is all about cleansing the gene pool of the TI (Truly Intelligent) so that Idiocracy arrives sooner.

  19. OHSA withdraws their vaccination and testing ETS, effective January 26, 2022:

    “Statement on the Status of the OSHA COVID-19 Vaccination and Testing ETS

    (January 25, 2022)

    “The U.S. Department of Labor’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration is withdrawing the vaccination and testing emergency temporary standard issued on Nov. 5, 2021, to protect unvaccinated employees of large employers with 100 or more employees from workplace exposure to coronavirus. The withdrawal is effective January 26, 2022.

    “Although OSHA is withdrawing the vaccination and testing ETS as an enforceable emergency temporary standard, the agency is not withdrawing the ETS as a proposed rule. The agency is prioritizing its resources to focus on finalizing a permanent COVID-19 Healthcare Standard.

    “OSHA strongly encourages vaccination of workers against the continuing dangers posed by COVID-19 in the workplace.”

    https://www.osha.gov/coronavirus/ets2

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I imagine that quite a bit of the high yield bonds in China are those of developers, who are doing very poorly now. The fall in the price of these bonds (=rise in the interest rates on this debt) foretells the fall of the general stock market.

  20. Yoshua says:

    Russia just invaded and occupied Belarus while the world was focused on the escalating tension between Russia and Ukraine.

    Moscow feared a colour revolution in Belarus during the nation wide protests. The fear of war and chaos has been used to unite the people of Belarus and Russia against the enemy.

    Russia has asked for security guarantees…that NATO won’t expand further to the Russian borders…end all colour revolutions…and stop building up weapon systems on Russia’s borders… especially in Ukraine.

    The US said no…while NATO members are sending lethal aid to Ukraine… escalating the fear of war.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This is an article I found related to the Belarus situation from the European Council on Foreign Relations:

      https://ecfr.eu/article/bonfire-of-sovereignty-russian-tanks-in-belarus/

      Bonfire of sovereignty: Russian tanks in Belarus
      Regardless of whether Russia launches another major offensive against Ukraine, Belarus’s territory will increasingly become a source of military threats to all its western neighbours – not just Ukraine

      Since the onset of mass protests in Belarus in August 2020, the power of Aliaksandr Lukashenka – the country’s leader – has rested on two pillars. The first is the backing of the security forces and the loyal nomenklatura; the second is the support of the Kremlin. However, this Russian support, like cheese in a mousetrap, has its price. In exchange for financial and political assistance, Lukashenka is gradually being forced to make Belarus more dependent on its eastern neighbour.

      In response to the political crisis, Lukashenka signed a package of symbolic integration agreements with Moscow, recognised Crimea as Russian territory, suspended Belarus’s membership of the Eastern Partnership, and redirected some export flows through Russian ports. He did almost everything to please Russia that he had been avoiding for many years. . . .

      For Russia, deploying larger forces in Belarus for manoeuvres is a convenient way to increase pressure on Ukraine.

      It is a long article. You may want to read all of it to try to understand what this group thinks is happening.

      • The media narrative is, ‘Oh Russia has forces in another country, how awful, what about SOVEREIGNTY!’ USA has forces all over the place and the narrative is, ‘oh how wonderful, they can defend SOVEREIGNTY!’ It is just made up words in made up sentences. All life is will to power/ energy – and the rest is BS for the gullible. That is simply playing out on a geopolitical level.

        https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10438895/Russian-soldiers-Ukraine-border-warns-UK-defence-minister.html

        > REVEALED: The 60,000 US troops already based in Europe that Biden can use to defend Ukraine against Russia: President orders extra 8,500 US-based troops to be on standby to deploy and places USS Harry S Truman under NATO control

        Nearly 64,000 U.S. troops stationed in Europe could be deployed to the continent’s eastern flank if President Biden makes such a call to counter growing Russian aggression at the border with Ukraine.

        The USS Harry S. Truman has already been placed under NATO command for the first time since the end of the Cold War, while 40 warships, 175 aircraft and 90 tanks situated throughout Europe could also be readied for conflict.

        Biden has ordered 8,500 U.S.-based troops to stand ready to deploy to Eastern Europe, while military officials have presented him with a plan to send 50,000 more if the security situation deteriorates and Russia launches an invasion into Ukraine.

        At the same time, the US told families based at the US embassy in Kiev to go home ‘due to the continued threat’ of such an attack, the State Department said Sunday.

        Though the number fluctuates due to changing withdrawals and deployments, the U.S. had about 175,000 troops stationed abroad as of September 2021. A total of nearly 64,000 of those service members were stationed in Europe.

        The U.S. has about 750 military bases across 80 countries.

        Command for the U.S.’s 40 warships is based out Italy, and the U.S. has already flexed its muscle to Russia by sending ships to the politically fraught Black Sea.

        Germany houses the largest deployment of U.S. troops in Europe, and only Japan and America have more U.S. troops based there. There are 35, 468 U.S. troops in Germany – 21,585 Army, 13,009 Air Force and small numbers of troops from the Marine Corps and Navy.

        There are 21 U.S. military bases across Germany, with the largest presence at Stuttgart, headquarters of United States European Command (EUCOM) and US Africa Command, and Ramstein, headquarters of US Air Force operations in Europe.

        • Lastcall says:

          Europe is an occupied territory already. Has been since WWII. Talk of European sovereignity is testament to complete stupidity.
          Pawns.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          The purpose of the military bases is to maintain the view of the US being the world’s #1 power. It is the world’s “policeman.” This helps keep the US dollar high relative to other countries and allows borrowing at low interest rates. All of the overseas bases provide jobs, especially for young people. The bases also provide an excuse for borrowing.

          At some point, the US will need to close these bases down, for the same reason it had to cut off the Afghanistan war. Not enough energy for all purposes.

        • Rodster says:

          Let’s see the US response if Russia sets up shop in Cuba. I read yesterday while unconfirmed, that’s in the planning stage. Missile bases in Ukraine is okay for the US but Russian missile bases in Cuba will NOT be tolerated. I can just picture that response.

          • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
            Gail Tverberg says:

            I wonder how a low-energy response to missile bases in Cuba compares to a high-energy response. How long can the US carry on battles, especially if they are on several fronts at once? Will broken supply lines put an end to whatever they are attempting to do?

      • gpdawson2016
        gpdawson2016 says:

        What no one seems to be discussing here regarding the Ukraine/Russia thing:

        We need some context here. Seapowers vs Landpowers

        This is going to seem obvious but truly it goes unobserved just like falling net energy does.

        Why did the Seapowers take over the world? Because they didn’t have to defend borders. Why do Landpowers spend huge amounts on defence? Because they do!

        We are all on a forum that discusses Energy Constraints…does anyone care to explain what is happening in these terms? Or have we lost our way?

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          You make a good point about Seapowers vs Landpowers. It is a whole lot easier and cheaper (lower energy) to transport goods and people across the sea, rather than across land. So this makes the difference an energy question.

          I am wondering if the addition of airplanes to the equation at least partly fixes this difference. We now have germ warfare as well, and it travels differently yet.

        • JesseJames says:

          Missiles and drones are the new weapons of war. They care not whether they are over sea, land or crossing borders or coasts. They also use very little energy. Compare the energy used by a drone versus that required to a fighter bomber.

          Aircraft carriers will be obsolete in the next war. They will be like the battleships in WWII.

    • Bourgeois ‘sovereignty’ means little to me. I do not care whether Belarus gets itself a bourgeois fake ‘democracy’ and subjugates itself to USA or it does some dance with Russia.

      How many ‘countries’ has USA occupied, destabilised or attacked in the past decade?

      Simplistic narratives of ‘good and evil’, ‘right and wrong’ must be pretty much spent by now, especially in geopolitics. ‘Rules’ and ‘treaties’ are made to further interests, they are not found carved in stone or deduced a priori, and there is nothing ‘true’, ‘sacred’ or ‘pure’ about them. This is the modern world, not the Middle Ages?

      All life is will to power/ energy, and the rest is just window dressing and illusions to shepherd the sheep – ‘dog whistles’ in a fuller sense, as used by states all the time, to shepherd their herds. Made up words used in made up sentences.

      It never ceases to amaze me how people still fall for it. Surely we have worked out by now that humans will believe anything, especially what their society and culture tells them, which is why ideology is so varied and variable in time and space. Or is it supposed to be just a coincidence that people almost universally agree with whatever ideology their society tells them?

      ‘We are on the right side, they are the bad guys!’ Yawn!

      Should that be homo sapiens or homo credulus, or maybe ‘sapiens/ credulus’ would be fair, with the emphasis on credulus? Our culture does not even talk about the gullibility of ‘citizens’ to the dominant ideological and social forms, it is accepted that it is the ‘place’ of ‘plebs’ to ‘believe’ all that rubbish.

      Does anyone among us really ‘believe’ any more?

      • “All life is will to power/ energy, and the rest is just window dressing and illusions to shepherd the sheep – ‘dog whistles’ in a fuller sense, as used by states all the time, to shepherd their herds.”

        While this I somewhat agree with this Mirror, haven’t you been spending the last ten years advocating prolifically for Scottish independence? How is that circle squared?

        • I do not think that I am given to ‘advocate’, rather I find the subject interesting and I follow the story. If people present objections then I am interested to know what the counter-arguments are. Otherwise I leave it at that. It is really up to the people of Scotland what they do.

          I would also be interested to hear more of what you think about the present matter.

          • Mirror, you’ve been posting here long enough that everyone knows you are bitterly partisan, despise the British State and yearn for its rupture. You may as well own it, rather than feigning a detached, intellectual interest.

            It is possible to be objective about some things and not about others.

            • This is not an episode of Eastenders, where everyone screams accusations at each other in some unseemly alercation. Take some pills or something.

            • Of course *appearing* coolly objective is a very handy debating tool in the arsenal of the bitterly partisan, so I understand you being upset with my pointing out the inconsistency.

            • Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. Try to relax.

            • Tim Groves says:

              Frank and Harry, Mirror has clarified his/her position and I think we should take him/her at his/her word.

              We are all subject to the occasional surge of strong emotion.

              l also beat my wife and skewer innocent
              babies when in my cups.

              But I identify as a thoroughly decent chap once I sober up.

              I come from a family of Eastenders, and I can vouch for the veracity and accuracy of the portrait of East End life portrayed on that show, innit. They were at it tooth and nail most of time. Not quite as aggressively as Glaswegians, but not far behind them.

              Of course, nobody can compete with Americans fighting at Walmart. And I say this as a long-time fan of Sumo wrestling.

            • Tim, gossip?

              I sort of sympathise with the churches of past centuries – take away the fear of hell and all that you have left is rubbish?

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        There are sometimes “synergies” of being combined. As it is, Belarus is land locked. If Belarus is associated with Russia, goods and services can be traded through Russia.

        It is hard to see that the country has a whole lot to offer Russia. Wikipedia says

        “It is landlocked, relatively flat, and contains large tracts of marshy land.[105] About 40% of Belarus is covered by forests.[106][107]”

        Also,

        “Natural resources include peat deposits, small quantities of oil and natural gas, granite, dolomite (limestone), marl, chalk, sand, gravel, and clay.[105] About 70% of the radiation from neighboring Ukraine’s 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster entered Belarusian territory, and about a fifth of Belarusian land (principally farmland and forests in the southeastern regions) was affected by radiation fallout.[112]”

    • This made me laugh. How could the British State complain, without hypocricy, if Russia annexes the eastern part of Ukraine, where a majority wants to join with Russia, when the UK continues to annex a part of Ireland on the same grounds? Why is it alright for Britain to invade another country, and ultimately to partition a part of it off, and not for Russia to do the same? The Russian speakers in the east of Ukraine are just as attached to Russia as the unionists are in the north of Ireland. Surely what is good for the goose is good for the gander?

      https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10434583/EU-set-unity-Russia-invasion-fears-mount.html

      > Putin stages naval drills off of IRELAND

      Russia will hold live-fire naval drills off the coast of Ireland next month, Moscow has announced amid rapidly escalating tensions with the West.

      Battleships will take part in sea drills around 150 miles off Ireland’s southwest coast, within the country’s ‘exclusive economic zone’ but outside its territorial waters.

      Foreign Minister Simon Coveney revealed on Monday that Russia informed Ireland about the drills at the weekend, saying the warships are ‘not welcome’ but his country ‘doesn’t have the power to stop this from happening’.

      Under UN conventions governing the oceans, military drills are allowed within the economic zones of other states provided they do not stray into territorial waters.

      The drill will form part of much broader Russian naval exercises involving 140 ships and 10,000 troops from all of its naval fleets that will take place in the Atlantic, Pacific, Mediterranean, North Sea and Sea of Okhotsk from January until February.

    • Boris is attempting to project the UK as the main organiser of hostilities with Russia. He seems to be simply trying to distract from his own scandals at home, but the Tories are attempting to stir up a lot of hostility in Europe toward Russia.

      https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/23/no-10-casts-boris-johnson-as-head-of-anti-russian-alliance-over-ukraine

      > No 10 casts Johnson as head of anti-Russian alliance over Ukraine

      The unusual Foreign Office revelation on Saturday night that British intelligence had unmasked a plot to install a Russian puppet government in Ukraine was issued alongside a lengthy release from Downing Street in effect claiming Boris Johnson was now at the helm of an anti-Russian alliance.

      The release said a deeply engaged Johnson was being briefed daily on the crisis, had ramped up the Whitehall response and was willing to engage directly with Vladimir Putin. It also touted his close personal friendship with the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and the number of calls he had made to world leaders in recent days.

      The release, promising ministers would be fanning out across Europe and a gear change across Whitehall, sought to give the impression of an animated leader gripping a crisis, some distance from the impression of a broken man unable to shed the travails of Downing Street parties in lockdown.

      Yet the Downing Street release was unusual not just for giving the impression of frenetic activity. For alongside its call for maximum Nato unity and its insistence that the UK was operating in lockstep with the US, Johnson delivered some pointed barbs against the French and the Germans.

      Johnson will also have raised eyebrows in European capitals with his announcement that he was setting up calls with G7 leaders to form a sanctions coalition that would hit “Putin-supporting oligarchs”.

  21. jj says:

    Monoclonal antibodies the new Ivermectin. Use restricted. At $600 a pop for big pharma it was tolerated unlike 6 cents for Ivermectin but the time has come comrades that this benefit is no longer worth desecrating our sacred injections. Noble big pharma takes a hit for the team. Treatment-so passe. Treatment represents a failure in gene editing and as such it can not be tolerated.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      How can Pfizer and Moderna make money?

  22. Yoshua says:

    The coal prices seems to be weekly…so the increase from a week ago?

    Will the dollar bond holder seize Evergrande assets and become the owners of those Chinese ghost cities?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I suppose it is possible the price increase is a weekly price increase. Way high!

      Governments don’t post balance sheets, I expect. Or, if they do, they now include only the ghost cities, but not the debt related to them, since the debt remained with the borrower. I suppose there is the trick of changing debt to equity in the bank, so the debt disappears.

  23. MG says:

    Slovakia: the millions of cars produced, but the agricultural self-sufficiency goes down, importing food in billions of euros

    https://ekonomika.pravda.sk/krajina/clanok/614615-emil-macho-agrolod-sa-potapa-vlada-to-nevidi/?utm_source=pravda&utm_medium=hp-box&utm_campaign=shp_3clanok_box

    DeepL translator:

    “Is Slovakia still a rural country at the beginning of the twenties of the 21st century, the face of which are farmers?

    Two facts describe the present. On the one hand, the production of a million cars a year and, on the other, the passive balance in the food trade, of which we import two billion euros. We are a country with a rural character, but only in terms of the type of settlement. The majority of the population still lives in villages, but the way of life there has changed. I am 43 years old, but the countryside of my childhood, in which agriculture played an irreplaceable role, has become a thing of the past. It is time to name things as they are and to respond to change.”

    “Farmers face a new Common Agricultural Policy under the banner of the Green Deal. How does it translate into Slovak conditions through the Strategic Plan?

    Frankly, farmers will have more work for less money. The often-discussed subsidies will fall by 30 per cent. For example, in 2018, a farmer received EUR 212 per hectare of land in direct payments; after the new year, it will be around EUR 160, more than EUR 50 less. Debates about how well farmers are living will no longer be relevant because, at the same time, our rents are going up. Yes, there will be more money for so-called investment projects, which could motivate the development of what we need in Slovakia. However, we are pushing a large investment debt ahead of us and, even if we were to receive twice as much funding, I am afraid that nothing fundamental will change in the next five years.”

    • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
      Ed says:

      FF fueled cars? With electric cars made in Germany. What could go wrong?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Small farms seem to always be inefficient. I remember hearing about a similar problem in India, in which the government cut back the subsidies to small farmers, and the small farmers were outraged.

      Low price of production comes with huge farms and huge farm equipment, operated with fossil fuels. Small farmers can’t compete. Of course, once replacement parts for the huge equipment are not available, we will be in deep trouble. There may not be enough semiconductor chips to build them either.

  24. Folks, the reason why I place these here is because this is what I read on my News feed on Yahoo concerning the non vaccinated. Almost all and those that aren’t come from non medical professionals…like Aaron Rogers….

    Washington Post
    Inside an ICU, a depleted staff struggles to keep going
    Rachel Chason, (c) 2022, The Washington Post
    Mon, January 24, 2022, 2:50 PM
    Angie Wheeler had bonded with her patient, and now his body was failing. The nurse tried not to let him see the concern in her eyes.

    It was only the day before that he had told her about his job, his wife and children. Now, the intensive care unit’s head doctor told Wheeler, he needed to be placed on a ventilator. She donned her protective gear and headed in.

    Subscribe to The Post Most newsletter for the most important and interesting stories from The Washington Post.

    Nearly two years into the coronavirus pandemic, Wheeler, 65, knew what to say:

    “You’re going to go to sleep, OK? You won’t remember any of this.”

    “I’m trusting you to take care of me,” he told her.

    The words hurt. Why, Wheeler couldn’t help but think, hadn’t he just gotten vaccinated?

    Like hospitals across the country, Luminis Health Doctors Community Hospital is facing a two-pronged crisis in this surge, with thin staffing and more covid-19 patients than ever before. Employees who remain have no choice but to shoulder bigger burdens. Among the heaviest, they say, is the emotional weight of so much preventable death.

    About 70% of patients admitted to the hospital are unvaccinated, as are more than 90% of those who die there.

    Doctors calling into a peer support line, created by Philadelphia-area psychiatrist Mona Masood at the beginning of the pandemic, now frequently lament the erosion of trust that misinformation about coronavirus vaccines has caused between patients and doctors, Masood said.

    “This idea that we are all in this together,” she said, “has really broken down.”

    During this surge, calls to the Physician Support Line have roughly doubled.

    “Everyone in the hospital dealt with lack of PPE, a lack of testing, health-care narratives rooted in political nonsense . . . on top of all the death,” said Kanak Patel, the ICU doctor who told Wheeler that day that the patient needed to be intubated.

    “You put any workforce through that,” he added, “and it’s not going to be whole. And we’re far from whole right now.”

    So, FE and company can harp all they like here in this circle and name calling and laugh, but this what the message reaching the public at large…

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Cross off the Washington Post as a reasonable place to get information. At least the WSJ does not fill up its pages with this kind of “stuff.”

    • JesseJames says:

      Replace “Angie Wheeler had bonded with her patient, and now his body was failing.”
      with
      “Angie Wheeler had bonded with her patient, but the doctor had not been able tp prescribe IVERMECTIN which would have cleared the COVID virus from his body, and now his body was failing.”

      Replace “Now, the intensive care unit’s head doctor told Wheeler, he needed to be placed on a ventilator. ”
      with
      “Now, the intensive care unit’s head doctor told Wheeler, he needed to be placed on a ventilator, for which the hospital would benefit greatly due to the the average Medicare payment for a respiratory system diagnosis with ventilator support for greater than 96 hours, which was $40,218 and would then be increased by 20% to account for the add-on to Medicare inpatient reimbursement for patients with COVID-19.”

      Replace “About 70% of patients admitted to the hospital are unvaccinated, as are more than 90% of those who die there.”
      with
      “About 70% of patients admitted to the hospital are either never vaccinated or vaccinated within in the last 2 weeks, with 90% of those who die there having at least 4 co-mobidities.”

      FIxed it for you. Aren’t words wonderful!

      • nostraightpath60
        nostraightpath60 says:

        Also Dr Kory said yesterday at Johnson hearings – US looks totally different from rest of world because electronic record systems in US are screwed. Only two options – Vaccinated (retrieved if vax in their system) or UNKOWN (lumps unvaccinated with those who got vax outside of electronic reach of hospital = CVS, Walgreens, Drive-up etc) – no unvaccinated designation available or effort made to designate as Vaccinated if not in system already.

        He said get over Vax/Unvax labels – only two categories mean anything are Recieved Early Treatment or Was Denied Early Treatment as first 72 hours after symptoms are critical.

    • The public at large distrust this blinkered, insidious propaganda more every day, but it quite simply doesn’t align with reality.

    • In my view and others, the Washington Post is regarded as a reliable journalistic outlet.
      My point was that the articles I read on the web almost all are in this outlook.
      As a matter of fact, if I was a subscriber, probably could find these on the WSJ too.
      Regardless, the average citizen, seems to me, is being bombarded by the Big Pharma, Federal Government view.
      I’m not saying there is another fraction out there that promotes the other.
      But it, for the most part, is not being heard

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        This is one of many charts showing where on the political spectrum different US publications fall.

        https://guides.lib.umich.edu/c.php?g=637508&p=4462444

        The WSJ tends to be to the right of most papers, other than Fox News.

        The Washington Post is definitely more to the left.

        The WSJ also does’t carry this kind of story. It has carried stories about the possible/likely lab origin of the virus that causes COVID, for example.

      • Lidia17 says:

        The Washington Post is owned by Jeff Bezos. Do you think he is a fair arbiter? Was Hearst a fair arbiter?

        Up until the Iraq war, I was also very naive about the role of major news outlets.

      • jj says:

        That guy died because he didnt get proper early treatment with IVM and OXY. Now the only decent treatment they were allowed monoclonal antibodies is being restricted. I would do your research before taking Remdesivir.

        I dont know how you feel but at this point in time I cant ever imagine signing the agreement to placed under a hospitals care. The implications of that in terms of my possible personal suffering are extremely worrisome. I dont smoke, dont drink, i exercise and do the best I can to look after my health. Why should I be put in this situation where the medical institutions by denying treatment and advocating experimental gene therapy have totally lost my trust? Oh well. If i have to die a slow painful unsedated death so be it. I do not consent. Im sure the doctors nurses and medical institutions pushing these ineffective and experimental injections would find that quite amusing. That is what they are using to make people give up their rights for. The purpose of the article above is fear. Extreme fear is called terror. What do you call a individual or group of individuals who use terror to try to influence behavior? The argument pathetically portrayed by the article that they feel so terrible about these deaths when they are denying treatment is beyond disgusting.

        I like most doctors. I like most EMTs. I like some nurses. What has happened to our medical system is grotesque. I do not consent to medical treatment. This is a rational decision from a informed basis. I want nothing to do with individuals or organizations that use terror to influence behavior. I certainly do not wish to suffer but I will do so rather than consent to participate with organizations that are using terror to influence behavior.

        The fact of the matter is if I need stitches or have a broken bone I will seek medical attention. Thats it. Thats the only reason i would walk through the emergency room doors and sign the consent form. Im smashed up or bleeding.I still retain the right to refuse treatment regardless of that signature. Signature obtained under duress. Besides that Im done. Time to suck it up. I dont see trust returning in my lifetime.

    • Lastcall says:

      This story only works at a distance. When someone you know gets sick following the left hook and right jab, then the blinkers, hopefully, start to fall from the eyes. The hard core and ever naive will of course, always go down with the ship, clinging to the narrative like the lump of lead it is.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Oh well… we laugh last.. (at least I do)… cuz ‘Marek’s’ kills 100% vaxxed and unvaxxed hahahahaha… I am laughing just contemplating it

  25. Rodster says:

    So it appears Evergrande is behind these 27 Mega Ghost cities.

      • Hubbs says:

        These cities in effect will be become toxic brick rubble dumps as they decay and collapse. The footprint will not be useful for growing food. Reminds me of those videos about what would the earth look like if humans became extinct? For all practical purposes these cities will become dehumanized dead zones. It will take an extraordinary amount of energy to restore to useable land.

        eg., https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wy7Q6wazD_E

        • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
          Ed says:

          They will not be restored. They will be waste dumps for the next 10,000 years.

        • JonF says:

          “From dust you were created,…to dust you shall return!”

          I’d say this applies to skyscrapers too….although the timeline is likely to be centuries….not years…

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        I think that when some of these buildings were built, it was assumed that the economy would grow in different ways than it really did. For example, when I visited China in 2015, the people there went out of their were to show me the many empty apartments in Inner Mongolia, where there had been hope of developing coal fields.

        The problem was that when coal mines were developed there, the cost of transporting the coal back to where it would be used made coal too expensive actually use. These people also showed me the empty new four lane highway and the empty airport in the area. There were virtually no shops open in the airport.

        This same Epoch Times article has other worrying things that it talks about.

        Professor Christopher Balding of Peking University’s HSBC Business School, an authority with good sources in the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) Financial Stability Board, recently did some subversive arithmetic combining “on balance sheet assets” with “off-balance sheet assets.” Remember, while debts are liabilities to the borrowers, they are assets to the lenders.

        He concludes that total debt in China is a breathtaking 833 percent of GDP. That means a debt of roughly $116.6 trillion.

        Wow. Just wow!

        The actual debt level could be three and a half times higher than suggested by official figures. The National Development and Reform Commission says Chinese debt amounts to 260 percent of GDP ($36.4 trillion), while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) accepts a lower official estimate of 230 percent. But suppose Balding’s report of 833 percent is correct. In that case, this is a matter of capital importance to the world economy and your investments.

  26. Yoshua says:

    Global coal prices are rising again

    When the global energy production and economy reaches a plateau…then the central banks will have to create an illusion of growth through inflation

    I’m not so sure that this can be done smoothly

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJqjqpcaAAMhRtI?format=jpg&name=large

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Interesting coal price chart. What are the percentage change relative to? A year ago? A month ago?

  27. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Something is Terribly Wrong in Quebec aka COVID Hell

    The Canadian province of Quebec boasts one of the highest vaccination rates in the world. It also holds another title: Harshest lockdowns and most oppressive sanitary measures in the world. Here’s a look at life in Quebec right now.
    https://vigilantcitizen.com/latestnews/life-in-quebecs-covid-hell/

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Quebec is the province with the huge oil supply problem. It doesn’t have local sources, although it does have refineries. It needs to get oil through the pipeline that may be closed off. It needs an excuse to keep people at home.

      • hillcountry – retired electronics manufacturing engineer
        hillcountry says:

        Lots of planning afoot.

        https://hotorcool.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Hot_or_Cool_1_5_lifestyles_EXECUTIVE_SUMMARY.pdf

        Recommendations here deliberately focus on a few radical approaches that are not yet part of the mainstream climate discourse. This would hopefully broaden the discussions on how to deal with the escalating climate emergency in an equitable manner and within a short timeframe.

        The first approach is taking out the harmful consumption options, through choice editing. Choice editing is a traditional government approach that has been primarily applied through the filter of public safety, health, and security. However, in a climate emergency, governments need to incorporate and prioritise sustainability in their choice editing criteria. High impact options such as fossil-fuelled private jets and mega yachts, excessive meat consumption, and customer loyalty programs that encourage unnecessary frequent flying and stays in wasteful hotels need to be edited out, for example, while innovation for more sustainable alternatives would need to be edited in.

        The second approach requires setting limits for environmentally harmful consumption and staying within those limits. The report asks the question of whether the time has come for carbon rationing. Rationing has been used in the past as a tool to regulate water shortages in times of droughts, and to ensure equitable availability of fuel and food when limited. Carbon rationing is relevant, since existing policies and programs are insufficient for meeting carbon reduction targets, and because it is a policy idea that meets calls for socially just action on climate change. However, rationing can be complex and controversial and it is so far not clear what mechanism could be used to implement carbon rationing. At the very least, thoughtful conversations among politicians and the public are needed, and so is some bold experimentation to implement such an approach.

        The third set of policy approaches is intended to ensure a more equitable wellbeing society. One recommendation is to adopt a sufficiency approach to the design of policy and practical solutions. In contrast, and sometimes complementarily, to the dominant technology-driven efficiency approach with its open-ended incrementalism, sufficiency prioritises needs-provisioning with limits determined by the biophysical processes.

        A sufficiency approach will support a fair consumption space through a range of options for housing, personal transport, thermal comfort, and nutritional needs, for example, that are optimised for wellbeing within planetary boundaries. Another recommendation to ensure equity and guarantee access to basic needs for all, is to go beyond universal basic income and implement universal basic services (UBS). Meeting human needs through public services and other collective measures is more equitable, affordable, and sustainable than simply providing cash benefits to support individual market transactions.

        UBS are underscored by a social guarantee, which recognises that everyone has basic human needs that enable them to participate with dignity in society; equitable access is based on needs, not ability to pay. UBS, to be provided through a combination of individual effort, organisations, and government mandates, would be determined for each society. In the UK, for example, these include: health and social care, education, housing, childcare, digital access, and transport.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          I doubt that there is really enough energy to go around.

          One way of making energy supplies go further is by mandating uniform behavior, as has historically been done in Japan and China. I remember reading that in Japan, children without naturally black hair are expected to have their hair dyed to give the appearance of being like the others. School uniforms in many countries help lead to this kind of behavior. Classes taught using memorization and standard approaches (“always draw raindrops as teardrop shaped objects”) encourage everyone to think and act alike. Promotion comes basically from long tenure.

          The COVID reaction in quite a few countries seems like a step toward this mandated lower-energy behavior, even though it is described as “fighting the virus.”

          • Lastcall says:

            The planetary virus being fought is obviously us humans.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              That is one way of describing the problem!

            • Fast Eddy says:

              The vaccines will prove to be sterilizing after all… hahahaahhaahaha… the virus is going extinct!!!

          • Artleads says:

            ABSENT STANDARDIZING POLICIES, MORE ENERGY MUST BE USED FOR COMPETITION AND EVALUATION OF STATUS?

        • Foolish Fitz
          Foolish Fitz says:

          hillcountry I downloaded the linked pdf(wish I hadn’t).

          It was, as the bits you’ve highlighted suggest, a WEFfers promotional piece.

          The relevant part for most middle class people.

          “UBS are underscored by a social guarantee, which recognises that everyone has basic human needs that enable them to participate with dignity in society; equitable access is based on needs, not ability to pay. UBS, to be provided through a combination of individual effort, organisations, and government mandates, would be determined for each society.”

          They are not going to raising anyone up, as anyone here surely accepts as an impossible dream.

          So how do we achieve the above desire?

          Lots of “government mandates” and “individual effort” willing or otherwise, all guided by “organisations” seems to be the easiest tried and tested path.

          It’s quite sad to watch the turkey’s demand the cleaver.

      • Oddys says:

        One must say that they are into VERY short-term solutions for their energy problem. They will have to become even more crazy for every year to avoid talking about the real problem.

  28. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Since the vaccine doesn’t help with infection or transmission this is nothing but the box of shame for the unvaccinated from Walmart Quebec. Unable to legally deny them pharmaceuticals and groceries the unvaccinated must wait in the box of shame to be escorted.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJ6aTeFWUAEdeoh?format=jpg&name=900×900

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I am sure that the virus will respect those boxes. The vaccinated are more likely to be spreading the virus, however.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Hack Saw Time in Quebec

    • Fast Eddy says:

      You know when some dude unhinges and opens fire randomly … like in a cinema… I always wonder why they don’t open fire on people who might actually deserve it…

      Could it be that they just hate MOREONS and know that almost all people are MOREONS so randomly blasting away is actually a targeted kill?

    • Fast Eddy says:

      It’s like that guy in Vegas who we are told just started firing automatic weapons into a crowd at a concert…

      He would have known that the odds of hitting a non-MOREON would be virtually 0…

  29. REBOOT BLUES
    Oil prices are up but the taps aren’t flowing like they should be
    An employee walks at an oil treatment plant in the Yarakta Oil Field, owned by Irkutsk Oil Company .
    Tim McDonnell
    By Tim McDonnell

    Published January 24, 2022
    The price of oil is at a seven-year high, above $88 dollars per barrel. Demand is rising and may surpass pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022, the International Energy Agency forecast last week, as the global economy seems not to have been stalled by omicron. And yet, many top oil-producing countries are falling short of their quotas. What gives?

    At the beginning of the pandemic, when travel seized up and oil demand evaporated, the price of oil crashed below zero for the first time. In the aftermath, a lot of oil production also ground to a halt. Since then, producers have sought to rebalance the market by cautiously bringing some drilling back online.

    But that process has hit a variety of snags around the world. The gap between supply and demand of crude oil globally increased from December to January, and now stands at 1.5 million barrels per day, above the approximately 81 million per day currently in production, says Louise Dickson, senior oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy, a business intelligence firm.

    Oil production faces a variety of hold-ups
    Behind the supply gap are a few longstanding problems, and a few short-term surprises.

    First, the surprises. A drone operated by Houthi forces in Yemen struck an oil storage facility in the United Arab Emirates. Over the last month, various mechanical outages have befallen oil pipelines and other infrastructure in Iraq, Ecuador, and Libya. More outages are feared in Kazakhstan, due to political turmoil; in Texas, due to cold weather (again); and in Brazil, due to coronavirus outbreaks.

    Meanwhile, several members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are struggling to reverse-engineer well closures (known as shut-ins), a process that can be expensive and technically complex, especially offshore or in difficult terrain. Russian producers are waiting to see if the government will bring back tax breaks it cut last year (and whether the US will impose sanctions on the sector, depending on the outcome over ongoing talks with NATO). In Nigeria and Angola, production is hampered by poor infrastructure and falling investment.

    In January, OPEC will be about 700,000 barrels per day short of its quota, almost the same volume by which the group has raised its quota in the last couple of months.

    “Among the OPEC members there’s a lot of inability to ramp up production after these shut-ins,” Dickson said. “They’ve been increasing their targets but not meeting them.”

    The gap may be short-lived. Oil production in Saudi Arabia and the US is booming. Russia and the US could find common ground on restoring the Iran nuclear deal, which could enable that country to bring an additional 1 million barrels per day back into the market. And if operational hurdles can be overcome, OPEC countries still have more production equipment on standby than they did before the pandemic.

    Recent projections from the IEA, the US Energy Information Administration, and the consulting firm Wood Mackenzie see the oil market reaching a surplus by the end of the first quarter.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I notice the article ends with the mandatory, “The gap may be short lived. . .”

      The issue is depletion. Governments need the tax revenue from oil. This is why Russian producers need tax breaks that were taken away last year. We know that US growth in oil production is likely short-lived.

      All the pieces of the economy need enough of the benefit of oil and other energy products for the system to work. Wind and solar add practically zero; the responsibility still lies with fossil fuels. Temporary high prices can’t do very much toward getting more oil out. They can push the world economy into recession.

  30. Student says:

    Bad news from Israel about vaccine efficacy and time-frame after ripetitive boosters.
    Because of high infection rate and hIgh number of patients, they have decided to reccomend the fourth dose to people between the age of 18 and 60 (‘after the age of 60’ has been already recommended few weeks ago).
    Other Countries can understand what is the result of this kind of vaccination….

    https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-694475

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I notice that “new deaths” are now way up in Israel, besides the absurdly high new case numbers. The new case numbers (relative to population) are more than three times the US new case numbers.

      I think of Massachusetts as a highly vaccinated state where the latest COVID wave started earlier than most. It now has a spike in deaths, too. In fact, its death rate (7 day average) seems to be third highest in the USA.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      norm?

      dunc?

      mike?

      Please explain what is happening

      Israel reported 871 serious coronavirus cases on Monday, 10 times the amount of serious patients recorded a month ago, on December 25, when there were merely 88 patients in serious condition.

      Coronavirus deaths too, continue to increase drastically, with 16 deaths newly reported on Monday, in comparison to December 24 when one coronavirus death was reported, and December 25 where none were reported.

      https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-694475

  31. “The energy crisis has burst a multibillion-pound bubble in green stocks as gas prices surge and the world confronts the true cost of net zero.

    “Shares in renewable energy companies have tumbled to their lowest level in 16 months, almost completely unwinding gains made during a stampede into companies aiding the shift away from fossil fuels.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/01/22/energy-crisis-bursts-green-shares-bubble/

    • “Ditching fossil fuel subsidies can trigger unrest. Keeping them will kill the climate.

      “…rolling them back is a tricky task that requires careful maneuvering. Spiking energy costs are a frequent spark for political conflict, especially when trust in government leaders is already low. The challenge is made harder by the fact that energy prices are rising sharply around the world, piling pressure on the most disadvantaged.”

      https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/20/energy/oil-subsidies-unrest-climate/index.html

      • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
        Ed says:

        A dead human is a carbon neutral human.

        • Bobby says:

          Indeed, if a traditional America Indian type burial is used.
          In our so called modern world, we waste energy to earth our dead or put them to ash and sky. I’m beginning to realise we are pretty crazy creatures.

          It is difficult to be honest about Death, society treats us like heretics.

          In the narrative of the Three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, perhaps Death would be better named Denial.
          …..and Death drops the reaper, stretches their arms high in triumph. YES!

          • Lidia17 says:

            We’re not crazy. We and the technologies we develop are just increasingly optimized to break down energy gradients faster than would have happened otherwise.

            • Bobby says:

              Humans Not crazy? well, are you in denial? Or maybe you just haven’t been one for long enough. Cough! cough! coffin manufacturing takes energy, crematoriums use energy…people travel to funerals, so in the death industry, energy is expended. Undertakers utilise a near inexhaustible resource as bereaved process the human emotion of grief and all its concomitant impairment. Just because a desiccation system is efficient (and grief definitely isn’t efficient ) doesn’t mean it’s not a waste, No one is utilising the bodies of the dead as feed stock to produce energy/oil or useful work. We wouldn’t use our deceased to power the grid , would we?

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Glad to see you back, Harry!

    • JesseJames says:

      Green stocks unwinding is a welcome event. But all stocks, including FF stocks will go to zero.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        I am afraid you are right. Also, at the same time the stocks go to zero, I am afraid our bank accounts will go to zero. The whole financial system will fail. International trade with fail.

        • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
          Ed says:

          Gail the level headed Norwegian says stocks to zero, banks to zero, trade to zero. This could be problematic 😉

        • Oddys says:

          I read many years ago a very similar historic analysis of the late 1200’s trough the late middle ages in Europe. Much of the later attention has refered to “the plaque” but that was just part of the problem.

          In a wider perspective there was a sudden lack of economic growth due to colder weather. During the previous 200 years there had been steady growth, much driven by highly efficient and expending monastic orders. Specially the Cistercienser order reared sheep in ever expanding numbers. Various instruments of credit were widely used in trade, and since the production of wool and parchment had increased for so many years, future production was traded as financial instruments.

          When the climate suddenly got colder and the sheep started to die the future production could no longer be delivered and the credit instruments became worthless. Needless to say, the existing economy collapsed but a reduced trade resumed – only this time all trades had to be settled in gold, silver or salt or something else of tangible kind.

          Maybe something similar will happen this time. Among those who are left to trade at all that is.

          • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
            Gail Tverberg says:

            I don’t think I heard that whole story before. It does sound like a reasonable understanding of what happened back in the 1200s when a plague became a problem.

            I wonder if the financing of the US slave trade, prior to the US civil war, led to a similar type of bubble. I have read that investors in the UK (and perhaps elsewhere) helped slaveowners purchase their slaves through the purchase of financial instruments related to the future production of the slaves.

            At the same time, the average height of young men joining the US army was getting lower and lower, indicating that they were not as well fed as children. The problem seemed to be that hygiene was gradually getting much better, thanks to the efforts of Louis Pasteur and others, allowing more children to live to maturity. With a higher percentage of children living to maturity (and continued rising population from immigration), food supply was not rising as fast as population. The population was, on average, getting poorer and poorer. It could not afford to pay as much for food or for cotton and other goods.

            The result was a bubble in the worth of slaves, I expect. All of this collapsed at the time of the US Civil War.

            • Artleads says:

              Powerful assessment. A well known writer (Jim Hillman?) was saying that the slavery economy was close to collapsing on its own without the need for a civil war.

            • Oddys says:

              This is very interesting and worth studying.

              I have read several descriptiions of the lack of fertilizers already in the 1700’s and a widespread acknowledgement of this fact among economists, politicians and chemists/pharmacists of the time. Many attempts were made in the early 1800’s to mitigate the situation by synthetic means, but it was only the guano-trade that saved the situation.

              At the end of the 1800’s it was obvious for everyone that the guano deposits were limited and about to run out, and this was a VERY big problem. (The hacked out dried bird-poo by hand in south america and then transported it a´round the world in sailing ships and it was good business).

              In the late 1800’s and early 1900’s the famous Haber-Bosch process was invented and scaled up, using natural gas to produce ammonia from the nitrogen in the air This unlocked limitless amounts of nitrogen fertilizers (and also nitric acid to produce limitless amounts of explosives). That is where we are today.

              There are different estimates floating around, but several of them arrive at a number of around 70% for the amount of proteins in humans and animals on earth exist because of nitrogen fixated with Haber-Bosch. It was the Haber-Bosch method that averted what had been a guaranteed global mass starvation in the early 1900’s when the guano deposits ran out.

              Now that I read about CF in the UK, BASF in Germany and others in Asia are shutting down their Haber-Bosch processes because of lack of natural gas, I get very chilly feelings.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              I agree. This is definitely concerning.

            • JesseJames says:

              Oddys, you left out the Chiean nitrates mined from the Chilean desert. This fertilizer bridged the gap between the bat guano and invention and deployment of Haber Bosch. Read “The Alchemy of Air” for a great description of our history of fertilizers.

              The one good result of the eventual limits to our use of Haber Bosch is we will not be able to wage modern warfare using explosives when we not longer operate Haber Bosch plants to generate nitrates for fertilizers and explosives.
              Of course most humans living today will also have long perished from starvation.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            kkklimate change has had enormous impacts on civilization … one of the reasons the Roman Empire collapsed is that rapid CG in central asia resulted in the Huns heading into Europe and displacing various weaker tribes — and they flooded across the borders into the Empire in huge numbers…

            This was all precipitated by the Huns penchant for driving Hummer Trucks and burning huge amounts of coal to power their industrial revolution.

            History is -as it often does – repeating itself right before our very eyes.

          • Jane says:

            I recently read somewhere—sorry, can’t recall exactly where—that some years after the Battle of Waterloo, bones of thousands, or maybe hundreds of thousands, of soldiers were unearthed at the site of the battle.
            Tons of bones were repatriated to Britain, where they ended up being ground up and used as fertilizer.

            It looks like this definitely was a thing, not only after Waterloo:
            https://medium.com/study-of-history/the-bones-of-waterloo-a3beb35254a3

    • CTG says:

      Yay! Harry is back. Hope he is good.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Everyone should realize that “Green Energy” is just a bubble. Its growth has occurred because of unsustainable subsidies.

  32. “Fresh food prices remain ‘shockingly high’ in North Korean capital.

    “Oranges sold for $27/kg, strawberries for $12.85/kg and lemon for $8.50/kg last week, according to one of the informed sources. Apples went for much lower at just $3.50/kg… “Overall, given that the average official wage is (less than $1 per month), these are shockingly high prices,” said Peter Ward, a contributing analyst to NK Pro.”

    https://www.nknews.org/2022/01/fresh-food-prices-remain-shockingly-high-in-north-korean-capital/

    • “Sri Lanka inflation hits record 14 per cent as food crisis worsens…

      “Senior ministers warned parliament earlier in the week of a growing food crisis with rice harvests due in March expected to be drastically lower after an agrochemical import ban last year saw farmers abandoning more than 30 percent of agricultural land.”

      https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/sri-lanka-inflation-hits-record-14-per-cent-as-food-crisis-worsens/articleshow/89055155.cms

      • “Aid groups deal with ‘painfully thin and lifeless children’ as Afghan food crisis deepens…

        “The number of “dangerously malnourished” children treated by international aid group Save the Children more than doubled in the past five months with some dying before they can reach a hospital…”

        https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-21/afghan-children-severely-malnourished/100772258

        • “Impoverished Lebanese, Syrians struggle to survive cold.

          “Aid group CARE International said temperatures are expected to drop in Jordan, Lebanon and Syria to well below freezing, endangering the lives of millions already living in precarious circumstances…”

          https://thearabweekly.com/impoverished-lebanese-syrians-struggle-survive-cold

          • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
            Gail Tverberg says:

            People have gotten used to living in cold weather conditions, with the help of heating for their homes. If there is not enough fuel to go around, home heating is one of the things that needs to disappear. Air conditioning needs to go away as well.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            HIGHlights

            A snowstorm in the Middle East has left many Lebanese and Syrians scrambling to find ways to survive, burning old clothes, plastic and in some cases even sheep manure to keep warm as temperatures plummet and poverty soars.

            Hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees in Lebanon and Jordan and others displaced by Syria’s war are sheltering in poorly-heated tents, relying mostly on layers of blankets to keep warm.

            “They are burning anything to keep their heaters on, from plastic to old clothes,” Atrash said. Earlier this month, a Syrian mother and her three children died in their sleep after inhaling toxic fumes from burning coal to heat their room in a village in southern Lebanon.

            The cost of a ton of wood is now equivalent to five times the minimum wage, selling for three million Lebanese pounds ($120) while some 20 litres of diesel now going for about 300,000, nearly ten times what it cost three years ago.

            Yassin, who lives in the tent with his wife, two daughters and son, could not afford wood or diesel for heating, so he’ll be burning dried sheep manure that has been piled up since summer.

            “All we have to protect us is tarp and blankets,” he said by telephone from the tent, surrounded by mountains near the Turkish border. He said only those receiving hard currency from relatives abroad can afford to buy diesel and wood for heating.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Coming soon – everywhere

        • “Internet blackout plunges war-weary Yemenis into the dark ages…

          “Abdul-Bari said that only companies and big business owners can afford the costs of satellite installations and the monthly costs of the internet provided through them, confirming that normal Yemenis can do nothing but wait until internet services are resumed.”

          https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/yemen-internet-blackout

          • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
            Gail Tverberg says:

            The internet is a modern luxury, brought to us by fossil fuels.

            • Hubbs says:

              Indeed, which is why I got my amateur extra HAM ratings, some Elecraft KX3 radios, PX3 pan adaptors, KPA 100 amps, 100AHr batteries with solar panels to power them, several antennas etc.

              Internet and cell phone blackouts are just a kill switch away. (Or extreme censorship.)

              No, radios can’t hold a candle to the convenience, speed and functionality of cell phones and internet, but a radio will be far better than nothing.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              If you can get ‘Last Man Standing’ status… you will may be able to witness the last moments of the extinction.

              Cool.

              I have a small shortwave receiver stashed away somewhere here… + some solar charging gear… for that purpose. Although the batteries have been sitting for nearly 10 years so wonder if they will hold much of a charge

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          These “painfully thin and lifeless children” are likely to die of any virus or bacteria that is “going around.” Death rates will be higher.

          • Xabier says:

            Traditionally in Afghanistan, food in time of famine was consumed in a strict hierarchy: fighting men first, then the older sons (no men with guns, no family existence – youths fought from the age of 15); the women of child-bearing age, and last of all other females – the elderly past having kids, young children.

            Share and share alike, which accords with modern sentiment, was not the rule.

            Shortfalls of women (or lower-class males) resulting from this were made up with slave-raiding in war, and the slave trade in peace.

            • Tim Groves says:

              I think most of us oldsters would willingly starve if we thought it would help our kids to survive.

              There is a story about the abbot of a Zen monastery — actually, there are dozens of them.

              It was winter, and this abbot was old and infirm and no longer capable of doing any productive work at the monastery, so he announced to his fellow monks that as he didn’t want to be a burden on the community and since he couldn’t work, he would stop eating and starve himself to death.

              One of the senior monks rebuked him sternly, saying something along the lines of, “If you die now and we have to dig a grave and hold a funeral for you in the middle of winter, you will be an even bigger nuisance, so please keep eating and surviving until the spring comes.”

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        It becomes impossible to grow a very large quantity of crops, especially on marginal land, it access to fertilizer, pesticides and herbicides is blocked.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      It becomes impossible for the poor to get a balanced diet with very high prices for perishables. In fact, they may have problems simply getting enough food to eat.

  33. “Central Banks’ Record Gold Stockpiling.

    “According to recently released data by the World Gold Council… the total amount of gold held in reserves by central banks globally exceeded 36,000 tons for the first time since 1990… if the central banks’ public statements were actually consistent with their policymaking and strategic outlook, there would be no conceivable reason to ratchet up their gold stockpiling.”

    https://www.eurasiareview.com/20012022-central-banks-record-gold-stockpiling-oped/

    • “Market Swings Build as Inflation Pushes Central Banks to Action.

      “Global traders already on tenterhooks over this week’s key Federal Reserve meeting had their nerves frazzled further Tuesday by Australian inflation data that smashed expectations, a surprise monetary tightening in Singapore and further volatility in U.S. equity futures.”

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-25/market-swings-build-as-inflation-pushes-central-banks-to-action

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      According to the article:

      . . . policymakers in the US, the Eurozone and in most other major economies, have for over two years now insisted on repeating the exact same talking points and all kinds of arguments and convictions that would in fact nullify the case for holding gold at all.

      For example, up until very recently, inflation was largely and decisively dismissed as “transitory”, with leading figures from the Fed and the ECB repeatedly assuring investors and the public at large that consumer prices were under control and that the early hikes we saw last year in official data were nothing but a glitch. Of course, as the pressures continued to build and as it became clear that the CPI figures (that are already a very poorly constructed and misleading gauge of inflation) were not aligned with the version of reality that central bankers publicly espoused, they were forced to perform a policy U-turn, at least in theory if not in practice. However, the most important element to note here, is that if their public statements were actually consistent with their policymaking and strategic outlook, there would be no conceivable reason to ratchet up their gold stockpiling.

      Naturally, this is far from the first time we see this kind of dissonance between words and actions by officials and institutional figures of all sorts, not just central bankers.

  34. “Energy crisis: [UK] Chemicals industry sees ‘500% increase’ in bills…

    “The soaring cost of wholesale gas, which isn’t being helped by the Ukraine crisis, is piling immense pressure on the most energy-intensive industries… leading business groups have called on the government to help companies, as well as consumers, weather the price storm.”

    https://www.channel4.com/news/energy-crisis-chemicals-industry-sees-500-increase-in-bills

    • “UK businesses count the cost of surging inflation…

      ““I have never before experienced price increases coming from all parts of the business . . . supplies, postage, wages, energy, its across the board. We know we have tax increases coming in future too. I am making a loss on some products owing to the increase in costs.””

      https://www.ft.com/content/c101a6b0-555d-4e7e-bd75-6a3949d54eb7

      • “Monetary policy cannot control a number of the drivers of high inflation in the UK, the governor of the Bank of England has warned.

        “Speaking to the Treasury committee, Andrew Bailey said monetary policy cannot bring the price of gas down, or increase labour supply in the market.”

        https://www.ftadviser.com/investments/2022/01/20/monetary-policy-alone-cannot-control-inflation-bailey-warns/

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          The problem is a supply problem. You can’t print supply.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        I noticed one chart today that showed expected increases in GDP by country for 2022. UK was at the top, with something over 4%.

        How in the world do the economists making these projections think that the current situation will work out well?

    • JesseJames says:

      This is a crisis whose effects are not yet upfront and center. I think this would be an excellent article for Gail…documenting the immense destruction of industry that is currently occurring in the EU and the UK, due to rising electricity and natural gas prices. This destruction of industry is part of the Seneca effect.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        It amazes me that the economists making forecasts regarding GDP growth cannot see the problem.

        • Lidia17 says:

          Many shops in my area are just.. gone. Came across this one just today.
          Eg. https://www.homealternatives.net/

          The ski-mountain motels and taverns in all but the chic-est of areas are looking rather rough: the majority abandoned. This has been an ongoing process, though, since before “covid”. The concept of a “gift shop” is now some sort of alien remnant.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Price storm? It ends because the economy collapses, I am afraid. All the government can do is add more of its own debt and distribute it. This doesn’t work indefinitely. It doesn’t produce more oil.

  35. “UK sow herd drops amid fears of ‘permanent contraction’ of sector…

    The National Pig Association (NPA) said it expected a further contraction in the first half of this year, as for many producers the situation was “simply not sustainable”… It comes as the sector continues to endure with the ongoing backlog of pigs on farms caused by shortages of butchers in pork plants, combined with record feed costs and falling pig prices.”

    https://www.farminguk.com/news/uk-sow-herd-drops-amid-fears-of-permanent-contraction-of-sector_59717.html

    • “Ireland’s Rural Independent Group has accused the government of failing to act to address the “spiralling” pig sector crisis… Group leader, deputy Mattie Mc Grath pointed to the “significant” gap between the cost of pig production and what processing plants pay farmers.

      “It has called on the Department of Agriculture, Food, and the Marine to create an emergency pig farmers’ hardship support scheme.”

      https://thatsfarming.com/farming-news/pig-sector-ireland/

    • “Farmers, cattle-breeders, hunters and opposition supporters descended Sunday on the Spanish capital of Madrid to protest environmental and economic policies by Spain’s left-of-center government that they say are hurting rural communities.”

      https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/01/24/protests-in-spain-highlight-plight-of-farmers-rural-communities/

      • Hubbs says:

        Had there been enough low cost feed grain available, could or would the farmers elect to sustain the herd until prices rise? This looks like the so called “double crush” effect. ( A nerve root gets pinched at the neck from a disc or osteophyte and also at the wrist from carpal tunnel entrapment.)

        The farmers can’t keep them because they can’t feed them, and therefore there is a short term glut of pigs trying to head for market, and yet they can’t get them sold to the meat processing plants because of a worker
        (or trucker or fuel) shortage. This pig “glut” will then be followed by a bust. Only this time, without adequate numbers of meat processing workers, the consumers won’t even get to benefit from a temporary glut of meat- like the dairy farmers in Wisconsin who literally poured the milk from truck onto the ground, or the Italians who left the tomatoes to rot in the fields because there were not enough cans to process them.

        It is sheer incredible madness!

        The only solution I see for this is downsizing and localizing farms at the community level.

    • JesseJames says:

      “the ongoing backlog of pigs on farms caused by shortages of butchers in pork plants, combined with record feed costs and falling pig prices.”
      Falling pig prices seems to be the same effect as falling oil prices. Despite record population, consumers cannot afford pork, therefore prices fall below what farmers can produce the pork for. Demand destruction. Soon, everyone is starving.
      Wow…we can only imagine how desperate the food shortages will be. Government can do nothing about it either.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        People don’t understand how the system works. Prices depend on what consumers can afford. Too many customers with low incomes tends to bring down production of essentials, like food.

        • nostraightpath60
          nostraightpath60 says:

          This has long been apparent in agricultural boom-bust dynamics (milk dumping, crops plowed under when production costs too high and consumers too poor- leads to consolidation via tech/complexity increase to recover some of embedded energy of lost enterprises that are absorbed) Very strong warning of possible economic behavior in other sectors; you recognized implications and applicability to general non-ag industry and finance/service sectors. No further proof of probable correctness of your thesis is required if someone has imagination to see ultimate consequence of this type of progression in a world of limited resources.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Consumers can no longer afford as much pork.

      • nostraightpath60
        nostraightpath60 says:

        I think that the bigger problem in UK is that with Brexit they “exported” the resident alien processing plant workers to the mainland and now have no-one to process the pigs that that remained behind even when offering “incentives” for low paid workers to come back. There was an article several months ago regarding the situation – made a comment at the time needed to put excess pigs on a boat to China but in current multi-layered can’t do regulatory environment guess that impossible.

  36. “Food price inflation hits historic highs as monopolies face exploitation accusations…

    “Consumers and small businesses are feeling extreme pressure as costs soar beyond their affordable incomes, and while major food producers say these increases are force majeure, many governments, experts and industry bodies accuse large corporations of profiteering from recent disasters.”

    https://www.foodingredientsfirst.com/news/food-price-inflation-hits-historic-highs-as-monopolies-face-exploitation-accusations.html

  37. “Prices are rising all over the world, and leaders see no quick fix…

    “Around the world, soaring prices are emerging as a feature of the post-pandemic recovery, prompting some central banks to pivot to inflation fighting… On Tuesday, the Fed’s policymaking committee is expected to signal that rate hikes will begin in March.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/01/23/inflation-global-prices-biden/

    • “Inflation’s Biggest Risk Is Geopolitical Unrest…

      “In countries where there is lots of revolutionary kindling, inflation can provide the fatal spark. Historically, rising prices contributed to political upheavals such as the French Revolution, which touched off a quarter-century of war in Europe, and the Arab Spring…”

      https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-01-20/inflation-s-biggest-risk-is-geopolitical-unrest

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Overturned governments are indeed a big risk!

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The interest rate announcement is supposed to be made at a meeting today. I assumed it would be out about now, but I could be wrong. Whatever it is, it will affect the market.

  38. “Interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks are likely to worsen a global debt crisis, particularly for developing countries…

    “The Federal Open Market Committee meets this week to decide the path for its tightening of monetary policy as it looks to contain soaring inflation.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/24/fed-rate-hikes-will-intensify-a-global-debt-crisis-research-warns.html

    • “Crashing Without A Net… As the Fed buys bonds, they are printing money and driving up the price of bonds.

      “As bond prices come down, stock prices will also come down. With interest rates already at 0%, the Fed cannot lower them anymore… This crash will probably be worse than anything in recent memory.”

      https://seekingalpha.com/article/4481138-crashing-without-a-net

      • “The Stock Market Crash Is Likely Only Beginning…

        “The “easy money” era, which has existed since 2009, has created many dislocations in the market and within corporate balance sheets. Given the sharp rise in interest rates following the forty-year high inflation rate, it appears that this era is officially ending.”

        https://seekingalpha.com/article/4480883-the-stock-market-crash-is-likely-only-beginning

        • Great stuff as always! Thank you ❤️ Harry… hope you’re feeling better

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          The situation is frightening!

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      No kidding. An interest rate increase now would make the stock market problems worse.

  39. “Chinese developer Yuzhou warns of bond defaults amid mounting liquidity crisis.

    “Chinese developer Yuzhou Group Holdings warned of certain bond default events, citing the liquidity crisis affecting the company and the wider real estate industry… it will not pay the principal and interest on untendered dollar bonds due on Tuesday.”

    https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3164500/chinese-developer-yuzhou-warns-bond-defaults-amid-mounting

  40. “Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan report power outages.

    “Power supply disruptions have been reported in Kazakhstan’s largest city of Almaty and the Almaty region… Meanwhile, most of Kyrgyzstan’s capital of Bishkek has run out of power, electricity shortages have also been reported in the country’s second largest city of Osh…”

    https://tass.com/emergencies/1392629

    • “Iran’s oil minister asks for nation’s ‘cooperation’ after gas demand hit record high…

      “”Over the past 24 hours, a historic record at 692 million cubic (meters) per day of gas consumption was registered in household, commercial and smaller industries,” Owji said on Twitter. “The gas network is stable. But continuation of this status requires cooperation of fellow citizens and management of consumption.””

      https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/electric-power/012322-irans-oil-minister-asks-for-nations-cooperation-after-gas-demand-hit-record-high

    • Fast Eddy says:

      TASHKENT, January 25. /TASS/. Uzbekistan’s power system is being disconnected from the unified Central Asian network and is being relaunched in a standalone mode, the nation’s Energy Ministry told a TASS correspondent on Tuesday.

      “The republic’s power system is being disconnected from similar systems of neighboring countries and is being rebooted to operate autonomously,” the ministry said. According to the nation’s energy bureau, “electricity supplies are being restored to some regions of the country.”

      On Tuesday, a massive blackout hit Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, consequently suspending the operations of airports and utilities in large cities. Some areas were left without heat or water.

      https://tass.com/emergencies/1392713

      Are they cutting off their neighbours???? F789 everyone else… look out for number 1

        • It is ridiculously cold across a large swathe of the Middle East, including Iran, and even up into the Eastern Med right now, so I’m sure this is a factor.

          https://www.dw.com/en/snowstorm-brings-much-of-turkey-and-greece-to-a-halt/a-60542602

          • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
            Gail Tverberg says:

            Using natural gas electricity for heat and for lighting causes a problem. The natural gas supply easily runs low when it is very cold. Pipeline capacity is not big enough to carry the required supply. Perhaps the natural gas pipelines can carry enough natural gas for one country, but it is much harder to make them provide enough capacity for a country’s neighbors as well.

            • i dont think global warming ‘keeps things warmer’

              ‘global warming’ disturbs weather patterns, which is not the same thing at all.
              this much is made obvious by the disturbance in the arctic oscillating air currents

              the inuit don’t want ‘warmer weather’–it destroys their landscape stability. Europeans dont want it if that in turn disturbs the ‘hadley Cell effect and drives North African dryness into Southern Europe

              Continental USA doesnt want it if it forces Arctic conditions into southern states, or affects forests in western states as it is doing right now and killing trees by allowing insect infestation, or if the Seirra snowpack isnt there and SoCal returns to the desert it used to be.

              Global warming raises sea temperatures and that in turn powers fiercer storms and drives hurricanes. Sea temperature increase may well sterilise sea life, and be instrumental in ending most human life. The planet is 70% sea after all.

              global warming shifts drought to areas where it didnt exist—and vice versa. Reduce/remove the himalayan snowpack and a billion people start to die—one way or another. They will not go gentle into their good night–India and Pakistan are nuclear armed.

              this in turn forces human migration on a scale we have yet to see, (but has already started) which will inevitable create widespread conflict to match that.

              People are already moving to where they think they have a chance of survival—as opposed to no chance at all.

              Global warming may well, in the long term, reduce human population to sustainable levels. That is a unknown factor.

              Between then and now, things are going to get very unpleasant indeed, and being a member of a mythical ‘elite’ is going to count for literally nothing. We may have 20 years—but i wouldnt bet on a century.

              there is no ‘grand plan’ involved. No ‘great conspiracy’—- Just human greed. We decided that the planet could be bought and sold for profit and torn apart indiscriminately.

              Unfortunately the planet has decided it’s not for sale. we, as global real estate traders, are being put out of business.

              tough.

              i’ve tried to use my limited writing skills to offer a warning… but what do i know?

              https://extranewsfeed.com/the-life-i-stole-from-you-f609f8db6353

            • Tim Groves says:

              but what do i know?

              You don’t really want an answer to that, do you? You were asking a rhetorical question, weren’t you?

            • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
              Ed says:

              Norman good post 🙂

            • Tim

              If there’s anything seriously wrong with that comment, then yes I would like to know. No doubt you are in a position to tell me.

              It is only my curiousity that is infinite–not knowledge itself
              i only pretend to be a know it all.

              i’m the first to admit i don’t.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        If there is not enough to go around, that is what most countries would do: cut off their neighbors.

        I wonder what happens in Europe, with their interconnected grid and not enough electricity to go around. This situation gives a hint.

  41. Fast Eddy says:

    Neil Young demands Spotify remove his music over Joe Rogan vaccine misinformation

    ‘They can have Rogan or Young. Not both,’ writes musician in an open letter to his management that has since been taken down from his website

    https://www.theguardian.com/music/2022/jan/25/neil-young-demands-spotify-remove-his-music-over-joe-rogan-vaccine-misinformation

    Good riddance f789 face …

    • JonF says:

      Does anyone still listen to this virtue-signalling, tuneless old tosser?

    • Student says:

      There is great problem with old people in general at the moment.
      I see also in my business environment.
      As they are more afraid of their health because of their age, they are more willing to accept the fairy tale of the ‘vaccine will save you from everything’.
      And so, generally speaking, they are less available to listen to different explanations of the current situation, very often closing completely their ears.

    • JesseJames says:

      Neil Young has Trump derangement syndrome. If you werwe stupid enough to buy a ticket to his concerts, you got a heavy dose of his anger and derangement. As if you came there for a political lecture! He is history…he has contaminated his legacy.

      • Lidia17 says:

        Another example of the supposed counter-culture becoming the authoritarians they used to hate.

        • Tim Groves says:

          True. And another example of the Streisand effect. See how much free advertising this is giving Joe Rogan.

          I’ve seen the needle and the damage done
          A little part of it in Neil Young
          Every clot shot-advocating celeb’s
          Like a setting sun ™§§ª

        • JonF says:

          The Grim Reaper will be coming for a lot of these old dinosaurs like Young over the next decade….

          The zeitgeist moved on from rock music….2 decades ago at least….

          The rock era, beginning in say, 1955 is wholly a function of the oil age…it’s days are numbered….

    • jj says:

      A singing WaPo. No accounting for taste I suppose. Mr. Young you could always ask for a MMA match with Joe. That four seconds would bring good profit for spotify. Perhaps you could hum your new smash hit “misinformation man” during the 4 seconds?

  42. hillcountry – retired electronics manufacturing engineer
    hillcountry says:

    On January 17th, Health Minister Karl Lauterbach had the following to say:

    “…with the situation in Hamburg… I can claim without a doubt, that the problem was in the automatic classifier of the software. The problem is solved now… and it was a mistake and was not done on purpose in order to largely blame the unvaccinated for the pandemic…”

    The city of Hamburg was not the only region affected by false COVID numbers.

    In mid-November, in Bayern, 48.468 cases of unknown vaccination status were added to the category of unvaccinated – pushing the incident number of the unvaccinated to 1469, compared to 110 for the vaccinated.

    Germany’s COVID measures targeting the unvaccinated were introduced in November 2021, and have used these two major data mismanagements as basis for legitimacy.

    https://thenationalpulse.com/2022/01/24/oppressive-covid-measures-for-the-unvaccinated-were-based-on-software-error-claims-german-minister/

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Good grief! Dumping the huge number of “unknowns” into the unvaccinated leads to ridiculous results.

  43. hillcountry – retired electronics manufacturing engineer
    hillcountry says:

    On Monday, Premier Jason Kenney declared that a food crisis is now impacting Albertans and demanded that the federal government immediately end the vaccine mandate for truckers.

    “I’m getting pictures like this from grocery stores across Alberta this morning. This is turning into a crisis,” Kenney writes in a Tweet. “It requires immediate action by the Canadian and US governments.”

    Kenney continues, writing, “I am on the phone with US Governors this morning who share my concerns.”

    “We are working on a joint letter to the President and the Prime Minister urging them to use common sense, end the policy that has taken thousands of trucks off the road.”

    https://www.thecountersignal.com/news/kenney-declares-food-crisis-demands-feds-end-the-mandate

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