Limits to Green Energy Are Becoming Much Clearer

We have been told that intermittent electricity from wind and solar, perhaps along with hydroelectric generation (hydro), can be the basis of a green economy. Things are increasingly not working out as planned, however. Natural gas or coal used for balancing the intermittent output of renewables is increasingly high-priced or not available. It is becoming clear that modelers who encouraged the view that a smooth transition to wind, solar, and hydro is possible have missed some important points.

Let’s look at some of the issues:

[1] It is becoming clear that intermittent wind and solar cannot be counted on to provide adequate electricity supply when the electrical distribution system needs them.

Early modelers did not expect that the variability of wind and solar would be a huge problem. They seemed to believe that, with the use of enough intermittent renewables, their variability would cancel out. Alternatively, long transmission lines would allow enough transfer of electricity between locations to largely offset variability.

In practice, variability is still a major problem. For example, in the third quarter of 2021, weak winds were a significant contributor to Europe’s power crunch. Europe’s largest wind producers (Britain, Germany and France) produced only 14% of installed capacity during this period, compared with an average of 20% to 26% in previous years. No one had planned for this kind of three-month shortfall.

In 2021, China experienced dry, windless weather so that both its generation from wind and hydro were low. The country found it needed to use rolling blackouts to deal with the situation. This led to traffic lights failing and many families needing to eat candle-lit dinners.

In Europe, with low electricity supply, Kosovo has needed to use rolling blackouts. There is real concern that the need for rolling blackouts will spread to other parts of Europe, as well, either later this winter, or in a future winter. Winters are of special concern because, then, solar energy is low while heating needs are high.

[2] Adequate storage for electricity is not feasible in any reasonable timeframe. This means that if cold countries are not to “freeze in the dark” during winter, fossil fuel backup is likely to be needed for many years in the future.

One workaround for electricity variability is storage. A recent Reuters article is titled Weak winds worsened Europe’s power crunch; utilities need better storage. The article quotes Matthew Jones, lead analyst for EU Power, as saying that low or zero-emissions backup-capacity is “still more than a decade away from being available at scale.” Thus, having huge batteries or hydrogen storage at the scale needed for months of storage is not something that can reasonably be created now or in the next several years.

Today, the amount of electricity storage that is available can be measured in minutes or hours. It is mostly used to buffer short-term changes, such as the wind temporarily ceasing to blow or the rapid transition created when the sun sets and citizens are in the midst of cooking dinner. What is needed is the capacity for multiple months of electricity storage. Such storage would require an amazingly large quantity of materials to produce. Needless to say, if such storage were included, the cost of the overall electrical system would be substantially higher than we have been led to believe. All major types of cost analyses (including the levelized cost of energy, energy return on energy invested, and energy payback period) leave out the need for storage (both short- and long-term) if balancing with other electricity production is not available.

If no solution to inadequate electricity supply can be found, then demand must be reduced by one means or another. One approach is to close businesses or schools. Another approach is rolling blackouts. A third approach is to permit astronomically high electricity prices, squeezing out some buyers of electricity. A fourth balancing approach is to introduce recession, perhaps by raising interest rates; recessions cut back on demand for all non-essential goods and services. Recessions tend to lead to significant job losses, besides cutting back on electricity demand. None of these things are attractive options.

[3] After many years of subsidies and mandates, today’s green electricity is only a tiny fraction of what is needed to keep our current economy operating.

Early modelers did not consider how difficult it would be to ramp up green electricity.

Compared to today’s total world energy consumption (electricity and non-electricity energy, such as oil, combined), wind and solar are truly insignificant. In 2020, wind accounted for 3% of the world’s total energy consumption and solar amounted to 1% of total energy, using BP’s generous way of counting electricity, relative to other types of energy. Thus, the combination of wind and solar produced 4% of world energy in 2020.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) uses a less generous approach for crediting electricity; it only gives credit for the heat energy supplied by the renewable energy. The IEA does not show wind and solar separately in its recent reports. Instead, it shows an “Other” category that includes more than wind and solar. This broader category amounted to 2% of the world’s energy supply in 2018.

Hydro is another type of green electricity that is sometimes considered alongside wind and solar. It is quite a bit larger than either wind or solar; it amounted to 7% of the world’s energy supply in 2020. Taken together, hydro + wind + solar amounted to 11% of the world’s energy supply in 2020, using BP’s methodology. This still isn’t much of the world’s total energy consumption.

Of course, different parts of the world vary with respect to the share of energy created using wind, hydro and solar. Figure 1 shows the percentage of total energy generated by these three renewables combined.

Figure 1. Wind, solar and hydro as a share of total energy consumption for selected parts of the world, based on BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy data. Russia+ is Russia and its affiliates in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

As expected, the world average is about 11%. The European Union is highest at 14%; Russia+ (that is, Russia and its Affiliates, which is equivalent to the members of the Commonwealth of Independent States) is lowest at 6.5%.

[4] Even as a percentage of electricity, rather than total energy, renewables still comprised a relatively small share in 2020.

Wind and solar don’t replace “dispatchable” generation; they provide some temporary electricity supply, but they tend to make the overall electrical system more difficult to operate because of the variability introduced. Renewables are available only part of the time, so other types of electricity suppliers are still needed when supply temporarily isn’t available. In a sense, all they are replacing is part of the fuel required to make electricity. The fixed costs of backup electricity providers are not adequately compensated, nor are the costs of the added complexity introduced into the system.

If analysts give wind and solar full credit for replacing electricity, as BP does, then, on a world basis, wind electricity replaced 6% of total electricity consumed in 2020. Solar electricity replaced 3% of total electricity provided, and hydro replaced 16% of world electricity. On a combined basis, wind and solar provided 9% of world electricity. With hydro included as well, these renewables amounted to 25% of world electricity supply in 2020.

The share of electricity supply provided by wind, solar and hydro varies across the world, as shown in Figure 2. The European Union is highest at 32%; Japan is lowest at 17%.

Figure 2. Wind, solar and hydro as a share of total electricity supply for selected parts of the world, based on BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy data.

The “All Other” grouping of countries shown in Figure 2 includes many of the poorer countries. These countries often use quite a bit of hydro, even though the availability of hydro tends to fluctuate a great deal, depending on weather conditions. If an area is subject to wet seasons and dry seasons, there is likely to be very limited electricity supply during the dry season. In areas with snow melt, very large supplies are often available in spring, and much smaller supplies during the rest of the year.

Thus, while hydro is often thought of as being a reliable source of power, this may or may not be the case. Like wind and solar, hydro often needs fossil fuel back-up if industry is to be able to depend upon having electricity year-around.

[5] Most modelers have not understood that reserve to production ratios greatly overstate the amount of fossil fuels and other minerals that the economy will be able to extract.

Most modelers have not understood how the world economy operates. They have assumed that as long as we have the technical capability to extract fossil fuels or other minerals, we will be able to do so. A popular way of looking at resource availability is as reserve to production ratios. These ratios represent an estimate of how many years of production might continue, if extraction is continued at the same rate as in the most recent year, considering known resources and current technology.

Figure 3. Reserve to production ratios for several minerals, based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

A common belief is that these ratios understate how much of each resource is available, partly because technology keeps improving and partly because exploration for these minerals may not be complete.

In fact, this model of future resource availability greatly overstates the quantity of future resources that can actually be extracted. The problem is that the world economy tends to run short of many types of resources simultaneously. For example, World Bank Commodities Price Data shows that prices were high in January 2022 for many materials, including fossil fuels, fertilizers, aluminum, copper, iron ore, nickel, tin and zinc. Even though prices have run up very high, this is not an indication that producers will be able to use these high prices to extract more of these required materials.

In order to produce more fossil fuels or more minerals of any kind, preparation must be started years in advance. New oil wells must be built in suitable locations; new mines for copper or lithium or rare earth minerals must be built; workers must be trained for all of these areas. High prices for many commodities can be a sign of temporarily high demand, or it can be a sign that something is seriously wrong with the system. There is no way the system can ramp up needed production in a huge number of areas at once. Supply lines will break. Recession is likely to set in.

The problem underlying the recent spike in prices seems to be “diminishing returns.” Such diminishing returns affect nearly all parts of the economy simultaneously. For each type of mineral, miners produced the easiest-t0-extract materials first. They later moved on to deeper oil wells and minerals from lower grade ores. Pollution gradually grew, so it too needed greater investment. At the same time, world population has been growing, so the economy has required more food, fresh water and goods of many kinds; these, too, require the investment of resources of many kinds.

The problem that eventually hits the economy is that it cannot maintain economic growth. Too many areas of the economy require investment, simultaneously, because diminishing returns keeps ramping up investment needs. This investment is not simply a financial investment; it is an investment of physical resources (oil, coal, steel, copper, etc.) and an investment of people’s time.

The way in which the economy would run short of investment materials was simulated in the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth, by Donella Meadows and others. The book gave the results of a number of simulations regarding how the world economy would behave in the future. Virtually all of the simulations indicated that eventually the economy would reach limits to growth. A major problem was that too large a share of the output of the economy was needed for reinvestment, leaving too little for other uses. In the base model, such limits to growth came about now, in the middle of the first half of the 21st century. The economy would stop growing and gradually start to collapse.

[6] The world economy seems already to be reaching limits on the extraction of coal and natural gas to be used for balancing electricity provided by intermittent renewables.

Coal and natural gas are expensive to transport, so if they are exported, they primarily tend to be exported to countries that are nearby. For this reason, my analysis groups together exports and imports into large regions where trade is most likely to take place.

If we analyze natural gas imports by part of the world, two regions stand out as having the most out-of-region natural gas imports: Europe and Asia-Pacific. Figure 4 shows that Europe’s out-of-region natural gas imports reached peaks in 2007 and 2010, after which they dipped. In recent years, Europe’s imports have barely surpassed their prior peaks. Asia-Pacific’s out-of-region imports have shown a far more consistent growth pattern over the long term.

Figure 4. Natural gas imports in exajoules per year, based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

The reason why Asia-Pacific’s imports have been growing is to support its growing manufacturing output. Manufacturing output has increasingly been shifted to the Asia-Pacific Region, partly because this region can perform this manufacturing cheaply, and partly because rich countries have wanted to reduce their carbon footprint. Moving heavy industry abroad reduces a country’s reported CO2 generation, even if the manufactured items are imported as finished products.

Figure 5 shows that Europe’s own natural gas supply has been falling. This is a major reason for its import requirements from outside the region.

Figure 5. Europe’s natural gas production, consumption and imports based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Figure 6, below, shows that Asia-Pacific’s total energy consumption per capita has been growing. The new manufacturing jobs transferred to this region have raised standards of living for many workers. Europe, on the other hand, has reduced its local manufacturing. Its people have tended to get poorer, in terms of energy consumption per capita. Service jobs necessitated by reduced energy consumption per capita have tended to pay less well than the manufacturing jobs they have replaced.

Figure 6. Energy consumption per capita for Europe compared to Asia-Pacific, based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Europe has recently been having conflicts with Russia over natural gas. The world seems to be reaching a situation where there are not enough natural gas exports to go around. The Asia-Pacific Region (or at least the more productive parts of the Asia-Pacific Region) seems to be able to outbid Europe, when local natural gas supply is inadequate.

Figure 7, below, gives a rough idea of the quantity of exports available from Russia+ compared to Europe’s import needs. (In this chart, I compare Europe’s total natural gas imports (including pipeline imports from North Africa and LNG from North Africa) with the natural gas exports of Russia+ (to all nations, not just to Europe, including both by pipeline and as LNG).) On this rough basis, we find that Europe’s natural gas imports are greater than the total natural gas exports of Russia+.

Figure 7. Total natural gas imports of Europe compared to total natural gas exports from Russia+, based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Europe is already encountering multiple natural gas problems. Its supply from North Africa is not as reliable as in the past. The countries of Russia+ are not delivering as much natural gas as Europe would like, and spot prices, especially, seem to be way too high. There are also pipeline disagreements. Bloomberg reports that Russia will be increasing its exports to China in future years. Unless Russia finds a way to ramp up its gas supplies, greater exports to China are likely to leave less natural gas for Russia to export to Europe in the years ahead.

If we look around the world to see what other sources of natural gas exports are available for Europe, we discover that the choices are limited.

Figure 8. Historical natural gas exports based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. Rest of the world includes Africa, the Middle East and the Americas excluding the United States.

The United States is presented as a possible choice for increasing natural gas imports to Europe. One of the catches with growing natural gas exports from the United States is the fact that historically, the US has been a natural gas importer; it is not clear how much exports can rise above the 2022 level. Furthermore, part of US natural gas is co-produced with oil from shale. Oil from shale is not likely to be growing much in future years; in fact, it very likely will be declining because of depleted wells. This may limit the US’s growth in natural gas supplies available for export.

The Rest of the World category on Figure 8 doesn’t seem to have many possibilities for growth in imports to Europe, either, because total exports have been drifting downward. (The Rest of the World includes Africa, the Middle East, and the Americas excluding the United States.) There are many reports of countries, including Iraq and Turkey, not being able to buy the natural gas they would like. There doesn’t seem to be enough natural gas on the market now. There are few reports of supplies ramping up to replace depleted supplies.

With respect to coal, the situation in Europe is only a little different. Figure 9 shows that Europe’s coal supply has been depleting, and imports have not been able to offset this depletion.

Figure 9. Europe’s coal production, consumption and imports, based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

If a person looks around the world for places to get more imports for Europe, there aren’t many choices.

Figure 10. Coal production by part of the world, based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Figure 10 shows that most coal production is in the Asia-Pacific Region. With China, India and Japan located in the Asia-Pacific Region, and high transit costs, this coal is unlikely to leave the region. The United States has been a big coal producer, but its production has declined in recent years. It still exports a relatively small amount of coal. The most likely possibility for increased coal imports would be from Russia and its affiliates. Here, too, Europe is likely to need to outbid China to purchase this coal. A better relationship with Russia would be helpful, as well.

Figure 10 shows that world coal production has been essentially flat since 2011. A country will only export coal that it doesn’t need itself. Thus, a shortfall in export capability is an early warning sign of inadequate overall supply. With the economies of many Asia-Pacific countries still growing rapidly, demand for coal imports is likely to grow for this region. While modelers may think that there is close to 150 years’ worth of coal supply available, real-world experience suggests that coal limits are being reached already.

[7] Conclusion. Modelers and leaders everywhere have had a basic misunderstanding of how the economy operates and what limits we are up against. This misunderstanding has allowed scientists to put together models that are far from the situation we are actually facing.

The economy operates as an integrated whole, just as the body of a human being operates as an integrated whole, rather than a collection of cells of different types. This is something most modelers don’t understand, and their techniques are not equipped to deal with.

The economy is facing many limits simultaneously: too many people, too much pollution, too few fish in the ocean, more difficult to extract fossil fuels and many others. The way these limits play out seems to be the way the models in the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth, suggest: They play out on a combined basis. The real problem is that diminishing returns leads to huge investment needs in many areas simultaneously. One or two of these investment needs could perhaps be handled, but not all of them, all at once.

The approach of modelers, practically everywhere, is to break down a problem into small parts, and assume that each part of the problem can be solved independently. Thus, those concerned about “Peak Oil” have been concerned about running out of oil. Finding substitutes seemed to be important. Those concerned about climate change were convinced that huge amounts of fossil fuels remain to be extracted, even more than the amounts indicated by reserve to production ratios. Their concern was finding substitutes for the huge amount of fossil fuels that they believed remained to be extracted, which could cause climate change.

Politicians could see that there was some sort of huge problem on the horizon, but they didn’t understand what it was. The idea of substituting renewables for fossil fuels seemed to be a solution that would make both Peak Oilers and those concerned about climate change happy. Models based on the substitution of renewables for fossil fuels seemed to please almost everyone. The renewables approach suggested that we have a very long timeframe to deal with, putting the problem off, as long into the future as possible.

Today, we are starting to see that renewables are not able to live up to the promise modelers hoped they would have. Exactly how the situation will play out is not entirely clear, but it looks like we will all have front row seats in finding out.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,984 Responses to Limits to Green Energy Are Becoming Much Clearer

  1. Yoshua says:

    I didn’t think that Russia would invade Ukraine. I thought they would just isolate them selves.

    Everyone knew that if Russia invaded Ukraine, that they would face a massacre inside Ukrainian cities. Everyone knew… including Russia. So Russia didn’t move into the cities. They just took the country side and surrounded the cities.

    I have no idea how this will end. The war is much bigger than what anyone can conceptualise?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I was originally thinking that people would quickly quit and go home. A long war is far more damaging and gets the opposite sides angrier with each other.

  2. Some sanity from Imran Khan. If Western states and companies want to self-harm, then that is really up to them. It seems likely that Russia will increasingly pivot toward the welcoming East, while Europe goes into witch hunt hysteria.

    > Pakistan to Import Wheat, Gas from Russia

    Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan announced Monday that his country will import about 2 million tons of wheat from Russia and buy natural gas as well under bilateral agreements the two sides signed last week during his official trip to Moscow.

    Khan pressed on with his two-day visit and met with President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin on Thursday, hours after Russian forces invaded Ukraine, with Western countries pushing to isolate the Russian leader for his actions.

    On Monday, the Pakistani prime minister defended his trip and responded to critics in a televised speech to the nation, saying Pakistan’s economic interests required him to do so.

    “We went there because we have to import 2 million tons of wheat from Russia. Secondly, we have signed agreements with them to import natural gas because Pakistan’s own gas reserves are depleting,” Khan said.

    https://www.voanews.com/a/khan-after-putin-visit-pakistan-to-import-wheat-gas-from-russia-/6463734.html

  3. Yoshua says:

    Mr Pool

    So it begins. The War. SWIFT. The Russian Central Bank. Cryptos. Cyber War. Nukes.

  4. Both ‘Joe Blogs’ and Steve Van Metre latest YT articles warning of the potential for global economic collapse from banning Russian banks from Swift.

    Steve emphasizes the links between Russian and some European banks, and if Russian banks go down, they are likely to take some European banks with them. Followed by the domino effect.

    Threatening to Collapse the Global Banking System
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6BWCKvhqw-s

    Joe does a pretty good overview of explaining the amount of goods exported (chapter 6) and imported (chapter 7) by Russia, trade that is likely to end if payments cannot be made.

    RUSSIA – SANCTIONS Against Russia May Trigger MASSIVE GLOBAL RECESSION as Ban Impacts Global Trade.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ug4Dn3GR-EM

    Who thinks that destroying Russia economically/ financially is a good idea, especially when Putin feels obliged to remind us that Russia is nuclear armed?

  5. Tim raises some good points on Spiked today, although I personally would go much further and deconstruct the entire Western ‘moral’ narrative around Ukraine. There does not seem to be any critical voices now.

    Just a couple of brief, general points from me: a people usually does the most harm to itself with its ‘moral’ narratives, which tend to imbed themselves in the ‘self-understanding’ of the people, and to do far more harm than good, on an ongoing basis; and the self-righteous are basically insane, and they are capable of any degree of foolishness; ideally anyone who thinks that there are simplistic answers about ‘good’ and ‘evil’ would not be allowed anywhere near public life – but we live in the dim-wit, posturing societies that we live in, so I can sort of understand a reticence to just ‘tell’ them.

    Talk of a ‘no fly zone’ however is just going too far, and someone needs to tell them. ‘Are you completely insane?’

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/03/01/the-lethal-stupidity-of-a-no-fly-zone/

    > The lethal stupidity of a No Fly Zone

    Starting a nuclear war will do nothing to help the people of Ukraine.

    This is a deadly serious moment. Russia, a military superpower with its nuclear arsenal reportedly at the ready, is waging war in Ukraine. Tensions are high. Clarity is lacking. And the Ukrainian people, as courageous and brave as their resistance has been, remain desperate.

    The question of what other European states should do, indeed of what we should ask our governments to do, is undoubtedly difficult. But one thing is certain. Further, explicit military intervention on the part of Western powers could trigger a conflagration that engulfs the continent. This would be the darkest of all our hours.

    And yet there are some among our intellectually low-wattage political and media elites who now seem to be calling for precisely this – military intervention against Russia, mostly in the form of a No Fly Zone.

    In the US, a No Fly Zone has been championed by military types, like former general George Joulwan, and some Republican members of Congress like Adam Kinzinger. And in the UK, it’s been taken up by ex-head of Joint Forces Command, General Sir Richard Barrons. Assorted hard-of-thinking journalists have backed the idea. As have Tory MPs such as David Davis and, especially, Tobias Ellwood, whose most recent plea ran as follows: ‘What scale of war crimes, what numbers of civilian deaths must we witness – before NATO, the most powerful military alliance in the world, is tasked to intervene.’

    You do wonder if these people know what they’re calling for. A NATO-imposed No Fly Zone is not a bureaucratic procedure or a simple mechanism to ensure a war is fair and square or fought on a level playing field. It is a militarily enforced act of aggression. It involves shooting down enemy fighters and targeting enemy airfields. As one of its champions, General Philip Breedlove, at least had the honesty to admit, it is an ‘act of war’.

    To call for a No Fly Zone is a reckless form of near apocalyptic warmongering. Only the demented or chronically unserious could contemplate it. It is to demand that the US, the UK and other NATO powers embark on a military campaign against Russia. And it will be a full-on campaign. The No Fly Zone these Gareths from The Office are yearning for won’t end with just a No Fly Zone. It will take us to world war.

    If we impose a No Fly Zone, Putin will not suddenly realise the error of his ways, hold up his hands and retreat. No, the Kremlin will respond with more force, to which NATO powers will, in turn, have to react with even more force of their own. That’s escalation for you – it’s a death spiral.

    Western powers ought to be doing everything possible to avoid this kind of escalation, especially given its ultimate horizon is, as the Cold War phraseology had it, mutually assured destruction. Yet there really does seem to be a growing enthusiasm for this utterly irresponsible and potentially catastrophic course of action. Politicians, their inner Churchills throbbing, are calling for it. Ex-generals, dreaming of the glory days of liberal, humanitarian interventions during the 1990s, are justifying it. And the media are now raising it as if a No Fly Zone is a perfectly sensible option, rather than the lethally stupid idea it actually is.

    There is no seriousness here. Just glib posturing, in wilful ignorance of the consequences.

    And what’s more, those happily banging the war drums actually think they’re the ones with moral right on their side. They think that paving the way for a world war is the path of virtue. And that opposing a war with Russia is akin to appeasement. ‘If we don’t stand our ground now, where will this go?’, said Ellwood, clearly in anticipation of Adolf Putin’s march through Europe.

    To misquote Karl Marx [‘the spectre of communism is haunting Europe’], the weight of Nazi analogies weighs on the brains of the dim-witted like a nightmare. That’s all they can ever see. Hitler. Nazis. Over and over again. Perhaps if they were capable of thinking in terms of other historical moments, they might view their warmongering as foolish not righteous. Perhaps if they recall the moral, near spiritual enthusiasm for battle which gripped European politicians and intellectuals in 1914, and the death and destruction that followed, they might see their own zealous thirst for conflict with Putin a little differently. Perhaps if they looked back at the West’s less sabre-rattling response to the Soviet Union’s brutal suppression of the revolutions in Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968, they might see that seeking war with a nuclear power has not always been seen as the wisest option.

    But one doubts they are capable of such historical thinking or sober self-reflection. So possessed are they, by their own warped sense of moral rectitude, they are unable to see their warmongering, and their thirst for a conflict that they won’t actually fight, for what it is – shallow, reckless, and potentially devastating.

    It shouldn’t need to be said, but given the growing martial drumbeat I’ll say it anyway: there is nothing admirable, or virtuous, about starting a war with Russia. Many thousands are suffering in Ukraine right now. But a war with Russia won’t help them. It will deepen their plight, and ensure that hundreds of thousands more across Europe suffer, too.

    Those in the West now trying to bring a world war to grim fruition actually believe history will judge them kindly. They believe they will be seen to have stood up to Hitler redux. That they will be seen to have stood on the moral high ground. But they are deluded – the only thing that will be beneath their feet will be the victims of their bloody warmongering.

  6. Ukraine Invasion Latest

    – The southern city of Kherson has fallen to Russian forces. This is the largest city so far to fall into Russian hands, joining Melitopol and Berdyansk.
    – Invading Russian forces out of Crimea have linked up with DPR forces around Mariupol, establishing a landbridge to the Crimean peninsula.
    – Heavy fighting is occuring in Mariupol, which has now been encircled by Russian or Russian-aligned brigades. The last supply line to wider Ukraine has been cut.
    – Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, is currently under relentless bombardment, including the use of vacuum (thermobaric) weapons. Resistance is thought to be strong there, but like many other cities, it is being kettled and engulfed.
    – The northern cities of Sumy and Chernihiv are under siege, but have not been stormed yet due to a lag in Russian troop movements.
    – North of the capital of Kyiv, significant forces are massing in and around Ivankiv after Russian spetznaz captured and reinforced the Hostomol airport. RF forces (many of the Chechen fighters) have been reported to have blocked the majority of Western routes out of Kyiv, but are leaving a corridor for civilians to leave the capital until the 2nd March.
    – Another very large column is pushing from East to West and have begun pushing into Brovary, a district of Kyiv on the Eastern bank of the Dnieper river. Kyiv is being gradually encircled by the RF forces.
    – Reports of a naval invasion of Odessa underway, but details are lacking and I’m unclear of the scale of this.

  7. Lastcall says:

    Interesting that we think we can substitute millions of years of natures energy (fossil fuels) with a few techno gimmicks; solar wind, nuclear.
    Similarly we think we can substitute millions of years of immune system natural evolution with a techno gimmick; mRNA injections.
    Both are woke ideas from the asleep who rule over us.

    • Student says:

      I’m personally more in favour of medical treatments, although I’m not against what they call vaccines against Covi-19 (as they are vaccine only because we have recently modified the definition of this word), because maybe they can be of help for certain category of persons. But anyway, having said that, we have to admit that Putin said that about mRNA injections the results on human beings will be clear only in 10 years time…

      ‘“I understand that world markets have decided to support the American vaccine Moderna, which is competing aggressively with another American-European company Pfizer,” Putin said. Our colleagues abroad say that this will be a completely innovative, very modern drug,” “However, whether this will actually be the case will only be clear 10 years after application and analysis of the results.”

      https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/05/06/putin-questions-modernas-best-coronavirus-vaccine-recognition-a73831

    • drb753
      drb says:

      Excellent way to put it. Your immune system will not fear the bubonic plague, or Marburg, or small pox, if you eat an evolutionary diet and do a few other things, such as getting good sleep. Very difficult to do though, as I am the first to admit that only few countries can offer a meat rich diet to all its citizens.

      • kulmthestatusquo
        kulmthestatusquo says:

        In Boccaccio’s Decameron, the aristocrats who ate better diet survived in a cozy villa talking about their sexual exploits, while the poor locals who never see meat perish in the city, off stage.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Good way of putting the problem.

    • kulmthestatusquo
      kulmthestatusquo says:

      We cannot support heavy industry with solar and renewables

  8. top Russian official appeared to threaten France with “real war” on Tuesday as he responded to saber-rattling comments from the French finance minister about the effects of punitive Western sanctions.

    In an interview with French radio on Tuesday morning, Bruno Le Maire said the West aimed to “cause the collapse of the Russian economy” through an “economic and financial war on Russia,” for which the Russian population “will also pay the consequences.”

    Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former prime minister and now deputy chairman of its security council, was quick to respond on Twitter.

    He said: “A French minister said today that they have declared an economic war on us. Watch what you say, gentlemen! And don’t forget that in the history of mankind, economic wars have often turned into real wars.”

    Western nations including France have imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia, targeting everything from its central bank and leading financial institutions to President Vladimir Putin himself.

    The sanctions seem to have already disrupted the Russian economy. On Monday, the value of the ruble crashed by as much as 30% against the US dollar, forcing Russia’s central bank to more than double its base interest rate to 20%. Meanwhile, Russians were pictured at ATMs trying to withdraw foreign currency.

    In the interview with France Info on Tuesday, Le Maire said that economic and financial sanctions leveled by the West against Russia were “extremely effective,” adding: “I don’t want to leave any ambiguity about the determination of Europe on this subject. We are going to wage an economic and financial war on Russia.”

    He continued: “We want to target the heart of the Russian system. We’ll target Vladimir Putin. We’ll target the oligarchs. But we’ll also target the entire Russian economy.”

    He added: “Sanctions must strike fast, strike hard, and we are already seeing the effects. The ruble has collapsed by 30%. Russian foreign-exchange reserves are melting like snow in the sun, and Vladimir Putin’s famous war chest has already reduced to almost nothing.”

    Le Maire said, “We are going to cause the collapse of the Russian economy.”

    On Monday, the US rolled out sanctions intended to prevent Putin from accessing a $630 billion foreign-exchange “war chest” he could use to prop up Russia’s battered economy. The move followed analogous sanctions from the European Union and the UK.

    NOW WATCH: Popular Videos from Insider Inc.

  9. CTG says:

    https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/dont-look-now-2/

    Please read and be entertained …. You have the time to read …..

  10. : Sloan Dickey
    https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/local-news/it-has-gotten-out-of-hand-catalytic-converter-thefts-reach-new-highs-impact-small-car-dealers?_amp=true
    Posted at 4:37 PM, Feb 28, 2022 and last updated 2022-02-28 20:27:47-05
    DENVER — Jambo Woldyohannis has a new morning routine of starting each of the nearly 100 cars on his lot. It is the only efficient way he can check to see if any of his cars at Jambo’s Automotive were hit by catalytic converter thieves. In the past year, 12 of his cars have been targeted.
    “It’s just another job. You know, daily routine,” said Woldyohannis, who most recently had a catalytic converter stolen out of a Range Rover. “We are losing money. And we can not sell it, so I have to park this car until I get the catalytic converter.”
    The replacement catalytic converter for the Range Rover costs more than $3,000, but Woldyohannis says he has seen some bills for nearly double that. The cost of replacing the part means the cars are no longer profitable on his lot, and he will likely have to sell the car for a loss…..
    Members are going out of business. We’ve had members close their doors because they’ve been hit more than once,” said David Cardella, CEO of the Colorado Independent Automobile Dealers Association. “This is not a left or right issue. This is a people issue, and we need to get these cars back on the road in an inexpensive and timely manner.”

    For now, dealers like Woldyohannis are required to check each and every one of their cars every day to ensure they are not down another catalytic converter and thousands of dollars.

    What till there is rationing for such things as food, fuel and now we have a residence crisis here where I live.
    A sweet old woman that uses a walker at church approached me begging if I knew someone with an affordable place since she was forced to leave and can’t find anywhere that will take her for under $1500 a month, think she can swing $1200. Social Services, she claimed, is unable to help ….perhaps they are overwhelmed with clients.
    As FE likes to point out…we are still in functioning times…tic tok …

  11. MG says:

    A Russian plane, based on an exception from the Council of the EU, brought nuclear fuel to Slovakia. It was a long-term planned delivery for the new block of the Mochovce nuclear power plant, which is going online this year:

    https://ekonomika.pravda.sk/energetika/clanok/618503-jedno-ruske-lietadlo-dostalo-vynimku-aky-material-na-slovensko-priviezlo/

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Lots of nuclear power plants in Eastern Europe!

    • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
      Ed says:

      Stock up buy four, store three.

  12. “Tunisia raises fuel prices for second time in a month.

    “Tunisia has raised fuel prices by about 3% for the second time in a month due to a sharp rise in oil prices, in an effort to rein in its budget deficit, the Energy Ministry said on Monday.”

    https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/tunisia-raises-fuel-prices-second-time-month-2022-03-01/

    • “Namibia: Fuel Prices to Go Up On Wednesday.

      “Motorists should brace themselves for a steep hike in fuel prices as the Ministry of Mines and Energy announced that fuel pump prices will increase by N$1,20 for petrol and diesel by N$1,30 from Wednesday, 02 March.”

      https://allafrica.com/stories/202202280521.html

      • “South Africa Must Act to Avert Economic Ruin, Risk Managers Say.

        “South Africa risks becoming a failed state if its “lack of decisive, ethical, and courageous leadership” persists and no action is taken to bolster economic growth and address high levels of poverty, unemployment and inequality.”

        https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-28/risk-managers-urge-south-africa-to-act-to-avert-economic-ruin

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Cheap-to-produce local energy supplies would help a great deal.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Leaders in all of these countries have a big problem on their hands. Higher oil prices usually result in higher food prices. People’s budgets cannot withstand this problem.

  13. “Europe looks to fossil fuels as Russian invasion sends energy shockwaves.

    “Italy is turning to coal power to replace Russian gas, while Germany is fast-tracking LNG import terminals and considering extending the life of coal and nuclear plants as the impact of the Ukraine war is felt across Europe’s energy market.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/europe-looks-to-fossil-fuels-as-russian-invasion-sends-energy-shockwaves-20220228-p5a0de.html

  14. “Ukraine Crisis Risks Pushing Sri Lanka Closer to Default.

    “With Covid shutting off tourism from much of the West, Russia and Ukraine had become an increasingly important source of foreign currency for Sri Lanka. The conflict threatens to turn off that tap as key bond repayments come due.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-28/ukraine-crisis-risks-pushing-sri-lanka-closer-toward-default

    • “Cuba Loses Tourists as Europe Forbids Russian Planes.

      “The closure of European airspace to Russian planes is one of the first collateral consequences for Cuba of the invasion of Ukraine. The Island remains, for now, without Russian tourists, its only rising market in recent years.”

      https://havanatimes.org/news/cuba-loses-tourists-as-europe-forbids-russian-planes/

      • “How travel is being impacted by the Ukraine invasion… The conflict could redraw the world air map.”

        https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/ukraine-conflict-eastern-europe-travel/index.html

        • danakayel
          Dana says:

          I thought that fossil fuel use caused climate change. We should be happy that fewer planes will be flying.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          This may not be a long-term issue:

          “According to the UK government’s travel advisory, restrictions on domestic flights in Russia are currently set to be in place through March 2.”

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        We don’t think about the continuing connection between Russia and Cuba.

  15. “Shell is to exit its joint ventures with Russian state energy firm Gazprom, a day after BP said it would offload its 20% stake in Kremlin-owned oil firm Rosneft, as British businesses scrambled to distance themselves from Vladimir Putin.” (Telegraph)

    The sense of that does not seem obvious.

    On the ‘moral’ level, which presumably no one really takes seriously, Russia has invaded a ‘sovereign’ country, but NATO has invaded loads of them, eg. Iraq, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan. The ‘humanitarian’ pretext is common to the Russian invasion too, ie. the ‘genocide’ of Russians in the east of Ukraine. Surely NATO knows what a pretext is by now, it uses them often enough? Surely they know that there is no ‘moral’ difference between themselves and Russia?

    If NATO is now taking the ‘moral’ level seriously, then I have been giving them _way_ too much credit in assuming that they are vaguely rational actors. Presumably that is not the case, and I will dismiss it.

    On the energy level, Europe obviously depends on Russian energy, they still want it and need it, and higher energy prices would impact USA too, so why would they seek to undermine Russian energy? Are they just ‘moral posturing’ with a knee-jerk psychological ‘need’ to perform the ‘morally correct’ acts according to the public ‘moral’ narrative? Presumably not?

    Possible explanation: There seems to be a _disconnect_ between what NATO obviously knows about the energy level, and understands about the ‘moral’ level, and what these companies are doing. And that disconnect is resulting in self-harm. One would think that Western energy companies have got a clue about what is going on in the world, and how it works, but perhaps ‘their place’ in the world involves ‘moral posturing’ according to the public Western narratives, even when it results in self-harm for the West.

    But the first ‘explanation’ is not necessarily the correct one. These are USA and UK energy companies. Boris and Biden also do not seem to care about Europe’s energy needs, and this also fits with that pattern. Perhaps the ‘transatlantic partnership’ has simply got it in for Europe, for some self-gain (which seems unlikely to emerge), and Shell and BP are ‘connected’ with that?

    We need to look at what USA and UK hope to geopolitically get out of the entire crisis. All that seems likely to happen at the moment is that Russia will pivot further toward Asia, and China in particular. If the hope is to bring down Putin, then that seems less likely, and they would be banking an awful lot on that outcome.

    This looks like Western self-harm.

    • Student says:

      Interesting.
      In my opinion, as they are at the top of their mountain of lies, they are putting all their bets on their bluff.
      Certainly this seems the end of a cycle which started the 11st of September 2001.
      If their lies will win, we will live in dystopia city.
      Let’s see what will happen.

    • “A new supply deal with China would also enable Gazprom to build an interconnector between its west- and eastbound pipeline systems, effectively allowing Russia to redirect gas toward China from fields that now only feed Europe. That could ease Gazprom’s reliance on the European continent, currently the single-largest buyer of Russian gas.” (Bloomberg)

      China previously refused to allow Russia to connect the two pipelines, as it did not want to ‘get involved’ in geopolitical tensions in that way. So, that is a major shift. China is now wiling to say to Russia, ‘If Europe mucks you about, then just redirect the gas to us.’

      ‘Thank you, very much! And very nice gas, oil, and wheat, it is, too!

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Sounds like a good deal for both China and Russia.

        • On the ‘fundamental’ energetic level, the global dissipative structure may simply be reforming itself, and it is generating ‘moral’, ‘political’ and ‘geopolitical’ narratives in consciousness to reflect/ facilitate that? The biological drives and human psyches (and human ‘foolishness’) are fundamentally ordered to the dynamic energetic ‘reality’?

          Perhaps the dissipative structure is itself ‘pivoting’ toward the East, and all the ‘drama’ and ‘crisis’ are just that playing out?

          Humans may not be the ‘primary’ ‘agents’ in all this, at all, but rather ‘secondary’ ‘actors’, and ‘components’ of the DS?

          We tend to assume that our conscious (or even unconscious) ‘ends’ are the real ‘purposes’ in what is going on with us, and we imagine that we are acting ‘rationally’ and sometimes ‘irrationally’ (not so well), but perhaps the energy dissipation is the ‘reality’, the ‘end cause’, and our ‘ends’ (our drives, and our ‘rationality’ and ‘irrationality’) are merely the occasion of that – and there is not really any ‘rationality’ to existence at all, it just is what it is in its energetic reality? ‘Ends’ are an illusion of consciousness, while dynamic energy is the reality that generates the drives, and those illusions, and all of the ‘rational’ and ‘irrational’ behaviour?

          If all reality is ‘will to power’, then there is no reason to think that day-to-day human narratives ‘frame’ that process in its fundamental aspect. The ‘moral and political’ is just one, human aspect of it, but the reality lies deeper, as Nietzsche suggests. I will get around to Francois Roddier and his thermodynamic perspective on the cosmos soon, who explored that fundamental perspective. I am not sure that anyone has publicly explored the ‘psychology’ of it better than Nietzsche.

          • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
            Gail Tverberg says:

            It is strange how the self-organizing economy brings together many pieces into unified narratives that facilitate the taking down of parts of a non-functional dissipative structure, and perhaps, the start of additional growth in one smallish part of the formerly unified whole.

            • Oddys says:

              It took a couple of readings to get my head around this one, but yes, it could be a socioeconomic version of Apoptosis – programmed cell-death.

      • China as peacemaker? “China signalled it was ready to play a role in finding a ceasefire in Ukraine as it “deplored” the outbreak of conflict in its strongest comments yet on the war.

        “Beijing said it was “extremely concerned about the harm to civilians” in comments that came after a phone call between Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba.”

        https://www.ft.com/content/e32aaff8-af24-46e1-8c7c-2a7d09387e45

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Good point!

    • drb753
      drb says:

      I concur with the many doubts that you have Mirror. This is just a detail, but both BP and Shell are controlled by the Rothschilds. So I don’t think is two data points.

    • danakayel
      Dana says:

      The Western Mind seems now to be afflicted with a fatal case of Cognitive Dissonance. First the mainstream media screams about climate change, then instantly turn around and moans about fewer people flying on planes, taking cruise ship rides, and vacationing and consuming in general. What is one supposed to think? I think that the people, and “the leaders” of the Western World have lost the plot.

  16. Sergey says:

    If Ukraine is allowed to join EU, If EU will send troops it’s almost 99% we’re going ww3. Definitely nukes. In this case US has to drop NATO and make a direct deal with Russia. Otherwise it’s all over.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The world has a surplus of people relative to resources. I suppose that some people in power could come to the conclusion that dropping nukes is a way to “fix” this situation. Dropping nukes is also likely to irradiate the survivors so that perhaps there will be more mutations going forward, I would think. Spent fuel pools that are left without electricity would seem to provide a somewhat similar effect.

  17. Kowalainen says:

    BIG SURPRISE!
    Wait, no it isn’t.

    Apparently Gazprom is building a pipeline to China.
    Who’d have thought of that?

    https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:j_0ZRDDSdbYJ:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-28/gazprom-paves-way-to-new-china-gas-deal-as-sanctions-hit-russia+&cd=3&hl=sv&ct=clnk&gl=se
    “The Russian gas giant signed a contract to design the Soyuz Vostok pipeline across Mongolia toward China, Gazprom said in a statement. If Russia reaches a new supply agreement with China, Soyuz Vostok will carry as much as 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year to the Asian nation.”

    🤣👍👍

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This is a more direct link.
      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-28/gazprom-paves-way-to-new-china-gas-deal-as-sanctions-hit-russia?sref=eWpk04kZ

      It seems like this is a report that work is beginning on designing a new pipeline system that we heard reference to earlier.

  18. keeping digging eddy

    i shall make you an offer for your shovel when your ‘bolt hole’ gets too deep for you to climb out of

    • Kowalainen says:

      Yeah; nobody knows the long term effects of the virus and vaxes.

      Inserting one bullet in the chamber seem more than enough, considering the Russian roulette analogy.

  19. your level of repartee charms us all eddy

  20. “What Is Fueling Our Century’s Global “Disorder”?

    “…If we want a comprehensive explanation for the last decade’s disruptions, Thompson asserts, we need to examine the large-scale societal shifts—such as how the world produces and consumes energy—that are causing the international political system to be recast.”

    https://www.thenation.com/article/culture/helen-thompson-disorder-interview/

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The author goes into a lot of detail. This is one paragraph:

      I have been reflecting on how to situate China’s turn under Deng Xiaoping in 1978 into that geopolitical story of the decade. Deng’s economic reforms took place under the shadow of the energy turbulence. His problem was how China could decisively industrialize after Mao’s failure, under conditions where it was clear that all the industrial economies faced long-term energy security problems. Perhaps we should understand China’s brutally coercive one-child policy that Deng imposed in this context: To develop, China had to increase its per capita energy consumption, and a fall in China’s birth rate would lessen the scale of that task. But the structural shifts in the 1970s were also an opportunity for Deng, as the financial side of the world economy became more liberal. A world in which capital could flow so easily across state borders was one where China, with its vast potential market, could become a magnet for foreign capital. In time, this openness would facilitate not just direct investment by multinational corporations in China but the transfer of a considerable volume of manufacturing production to China, with the accompanying job losses in Western economies—and in the United States in particular—a democratic fallout.

  21. “Prepare for deflation…

    “Although it’s true that higher oil prices will raise the cost of nearly everything, this will eventually choke off demand so tightly that only deepest recession (a.k.a. Depression) could conceivably result. That would cause financial assets that are hyperleveraged to energy resources to implode, deflating a $2 quadrillion derivatives edifice as well as paper assets that lie outside this market.”

    https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/prepare-for-deflation-202202280802

    • “Putin Just Pushed the World Into an Even Bigger Energy Crisis. Even without sanctions, Russia’s war will increase the shortage of oil and gas…

      “Even if the current sanctions imposed on Russia do not explicitly target the energy trade, sanctions on banks and other entities will impede Russia’s oil, natural gas, and coal exports, wreaking havoc on global energy markets.”

      https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/28/russia-ukraine-oil-gas-sanctions-crisis-prices-energy/

      • “Putin Just Pushed the World Into an Even Bigger Energy Crisis”

        Let’s blame Putin for everything, why not? Now the peak everything chickens are coming home to roost, what a useful scapegoat he is.

        • I’m over the geopolitical point-scoring tbh, MinorityofOne. My apologies if some creeps into some of the articles I post but it will be hard to avoid.

          This is just an all round sad situation – tragic for the people on the ground in Ukraine – and, as you say, the broader context is that the growth-dependent, globalised economy upon which we all depend for our survival is now irreversibly unknitting, fracturing and destabilizing.

          As far as I can see, none of our leaders are exhibiting any wisdom and the species at large seems to determined to go down in paroxysms of self-righteous finger-pointing.

      • Jarle says:

        > Putin Just Pushed the World Into an Even Bigger Energy Crisis.

        Everything is Putins fault, all other are saints.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Of course!

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        People don’t realize how damaging sanctions against Russia are for the world economy as a whole.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      No kidding! Good point.

  22. Fast Eddy says:

    Sucks to be a MOREON… actually a Hyper MOREON… cuz she would have known it takes many years to test a vaccine…. to determine if it is safe:

    https://www.realnotrare.com/post/marsha-gee-icu-nurse

  23. Neil McCoy Ward did a short video yesterday pointing out that much/ most of the Russian financial assets seized by Western banks / governments were payment for coal / oil / gas etc.

    If correct, why would Russia keep sending gas, or anything else, when payments for goods it has already delivered have effectively been stolen by the customers?

    I can’t help but wonder to what extent things are going according to someone’s plan.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Russia is kinder than the West?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      No more silence with respect to COVID vaccine reactions.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Vaccine problems.

  24. drb753
    drb says:

    Fun with VPNs: I have already reported that Russia blocks Mercola, covidblog, and rumble. The West is blocking RT and sometimes sputnik. I am occasionally blocked in Russia after I tried to connect to RT from a US VPN. Japan blocks saker. It’s good to have multiple vpns in these dying days of the free internet. Even in sites similar to saker, censorship (presumably through Disqus, now allied with rt.com), has ramped up to levels not seen before. MHO, none of these stalwart bloggers will end up like Andreas Rauck. We are really talking about micro-censorship, very finely grained. I have to maintain alive the war as kabuki hypothesis, too many things don’t square up.

    • Student says:

      In one of his first interviews right after the beginning of the pandemic, Bill Gates said that it was something probable that in the future two or three different internets would exist in the world.
      It is difficult to find this interview now for me, but I remember well that he said ”I’m not saying that EU will stay out from US internet, but there will be…”

    • Thanks for the information…the internet was created by military funding in large part

  25. Fast Eddy says:

    China Post to test all overseas mail for Covid-19 as outbreak continues

    Letters and parcels will be held for nucleic acid testing and released within 14 to 20 hours of a negative result

    The tightened regulations follow 87 new local cases reported and 147 imported infections across the country

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3168755/china-post-test-all-overseas-mail-covid-19-outbreak-continues

    why norm?

    mike where are you — booster issues? pity… dunc maybe you and mike can compare notes…

    I am sure you guys will come right soon.. it’s just VAIDS… nothing to worry about

    hahahahaahahahahahahahahahahahahaha VAIDS… V+ AIDS… f789ed … Mega F789ed…

    Totally F789ed hahahahahahaaha… how does it feel to know you have ‘F789ed yourself permanently … haha… there ain’t no UnF789ing this shit … it’s infiltrated your DNA..

    It is now part of you at the cellular level …. ya can’t wash it out hahahahahaha

    https://youtu.be/w8_jESfPLBc

    • Fast Eddy says:

      This is almost certainly not real – but if it is… I hope he takes a bullet through the head… it will cure him …

      https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60563278

      • Xabier says:

        Utterly fake of course: but if not, I heartily endorse your kind wishes for his health and safety, FE.

        The tsunami of puerile propaganda about the war in Ukraine is incredible in volume and crudity.

        ‘Explosion, somewhere: Evil Russia!’

        ‘Refugees,supposedly, somewhere: Mad Vlad!’

        ‘Wrecked vehicles: Gallant Ukrainians/ Satanic Russians!’

        • drb753
          drb says:

          The italian press is hailing the heroic efforts of Anonymous, which has brought Russia to its knees through cyberattacks.

      • Hubbs says:

        This article is total BS of course. This guy is clamoring for attention, and really does not have to commit if he actually has to deal with the grim reality of a real war if he actually lands in the middle of it in an “ oh sh!t momement “i on his virtue signaling crusade, Unless of course he was using this as an excuse to leave his wife and family instead of a divorce. But if this plan doesn’t work out, he knows he can always come back home and to mama. The rest of the world doesn’t have that option.The reality is he as well as US citizens, still benefitting what’s left of the Second Amendment, should be fighting these battles here in the United States against all the treacherous scum the cockroaches in Washington DC, the oligarchs, Deep State, Glovalists etc. Of course we still face the core issues of energy/food/population and debt universally.But we should be taking out all of these corrupt oligarchs, politicians, bureaucrats, sociopathic bankers, etc. House by house,or rather mansion by mansion, surround Washington DC and not let a single of these cockroaches leave the city. But then you argue that this is lynching you would say? It’s academic now since there is no rule of law anyway. The only solution will be one at the barrel of a gun I am afraid not that I like it, not that the end result or power vacuum that could follow will be any better but now it is a balance of risk taking now versus what our odds will be by delaying. But the governmentHas got us all brainwashed into thinking that we must fight over there when the reality is we the citizens need the courage to begin the fight here To reduce conflict around the rest of the world. There you go Fast Eddie, top that for vitriol and anger.

    • Student says:

      Thank you for this update.
      This is really strange, because if we could suffer Covid-19 from simple parcels (which by the way travel for many days) it would mean that everyone in the world would have already had Covid-19 and we would be already free from that.
      They probably fear something else, maybe another kind of attack.
      Or they just want to keep the fear at high level.
      Any other suggestion?

      • Kowalainen says:

        Viruses enclosed in ‘stabilizing’ compounds (dry frozen).

        https://patents.google.com/patent/EP3127550A1/en_2

        Wanna shut down all international trade to stop actors from spreading bio weapons?

        Now that I think about the latest round of ‘sanctions’.

        🤔

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          What could go wrong, in an era of rolling blackouts and falling fossil fuel supplies?

          We have nuclear power plants that need to be connected to grid electricity 24/7/365, to keep the depleted uranium cooling ponds operating properly. I would expect that dry freezing has a similar difficulty.

          • Kowalainen says:

            Yes, but for the time being I’m sure it is still possible to dry freeze various viruses and sprinkle the powder on various packages.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              Interesting point!

      • Fast Eddy says:

        HK vax rates are too low — I think it’s a form of protest — in a city that does not allow physical protest – against the hated CCP. F789 You I Won’t Do What You Tell Me….

        Therefore the fear machine needs to be ramped up … and the punishment…

        This will be brutal – I wonder how many people will be using this two week window to get out of dodge…

        Hong Kong to hold ‘large-scale lockdown in second half of March’

        https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3168752/coronavirus-hong-kong-9-day-large-scale-lockdown?module=lead_hero_story&pgtype=homepage

  26. Harry says:

    Last week Covid reached me after all.
    I had a severe headache (after one aspirin they were gone) and then for about a day always around 38 degrees Celcius body temperature, so a slight fever.
    That was it, since then I have no more symptoms, only it is still a bit in the bones. I don’t feel completely fit again yet, but that’s certainly normal. At least the body had to deal with the virus properly for once.

    I hope my immune system was now able to take a good look at the virus and will quickly recognize it the next time it comes into contact with a newer variant. At least better than through the vaxx.

    • Student says:

      Very good, congratulations.

      • Kowalainen says:

        And you know the long term effects of ‘recovering’ from a Covid infection?

        Don’t be so quick on reaching conclusions based on nonexistent data and various drivel and speculation posted online.

        Life is a gamble. However; injecting oneself several times with an unproven gene therapy is nuts. Speaking of busting the nuts and busy beavers: The injections ‘seem’ to be a ‘fucking’ eugenics program to cause infertility and cancers. A slow burn to oblivion until baby Phoenix arise from the ashes.

        Question is WTF the virus does? Speaking from my own “experience” post Covid; I have never been as physically (and mentally) well as under this so called ‘pandemic’. I guess there are upsides “working” from home.

        However, I had my pump stop a few times for about 5s. I use to take my resting pulse by just “feeling” the heartbeats in my body and if they are absent I’m the first one to know. But it seem to be running just fine (for) now.

        Time will tell.
        In the mean time:

        🪵🪓💧

        🤔

        • Xabier says:

          Reaching for my Swedish axes already, K!

          For carrying the water, I’d like a nice straight-backed woman, possibly one of your Hindoo Hotties, and I’d fix her up with an elegant pottery vessel for the task – how picturesque!

          Which, of course, she would be permitted to break over my head if I don’t keep her warm on these damp English nights.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Glad you are better!

    • You are fortunate, most do shake it off and when I had it felt tired with fatigue and slept most of the day. Did not have a fever.
      Natural immunity is the best medicine.
      The only thing Big Pharma can’t make money that way.
      Just like if you have your own medicine herbal garden.

  27. Fast Eddy says:

    Dozens of Ukrainian soldiers killed in Russian attack
    A Ukrainian official says a Russian artillery attack on a military unit in Okhtyrka, a city between Kharkiv and Kyiv, killed at least 70 Ukrainian soldiers on Monday.

    Dmytro Zhyvytskyy, head of the Sumy Regional State Administration, posted photographs of the charred shell of a four-storey building and rescuers searching rubble.

    Vids?

    Photos?

  28. Fast Eddy says:

    Kharkiv official says Russian missiles have struck residential areas
    The head of the regional administration in Kharkiv, Oleg Synegubov, says Russian missile attacks have hit the centre of Ukraine’s second-largest city, including residential areas and the city administration building.

    Synegubov said Russia had launched GRAD and cruise missiles on the eastern city and accused Moscow of being guilty of war crimes. He added the city’s defences were holding despite the bombardment.

    Oh really? Photos? Videos?

    And please… no more photos of that woman wrapped in bandages taken in 2018

  29. Fast Eddy says:

    Russians ‘upping their tempo of attacks on large urban centres’
    Al Jazeera’s Jonah Hull, reporting from the city of Lviv, in central Ukraine, says Russian forces are “upping their tempo of attacks on large urban centres”.

    “That is clear, there are reports of explosions being heard in Kyiv this morning, the capital of course, the most important urban centre in the country and the enormous convoy to the northwest, 40-miles long, which contains Russian armour, troops, logistical and support supplies, that’s ready to attempt to move on the capital,” Hull said.

    “There’s another convoy coming up from the southeast, the idea is to try and encircle the capital and apply maximum pressure on the civilian population inside and the government of president Zelenskyy,” he added.

    “The other big urban centre under continued attack is Kharkiv in the east … And attacks are going on as well at military targets, one very large incident is being reported this morning in Okhtyrka … which apparently sustained attack [yesterday] by very heavy munitions, potentially a missile strike … [in which] 70 Ukrainians soldiers were killed.”

    Surely there would be loads of video of this?????

    • JMS says:

      In its absence of images of fighting and dead, this war recalls those terrorist attacks of half a dozen years ago (in Paris, Orlando, Barcelona, etc.) in which according to the media dozens of people had died without there being, in this age of the smartphone!, more than a few shaky images to prove it.

      In a world where the news that matters are always fake, we can at the very least suspect that this war is less a real military operation than a joint psy-op by the West and Russia, just as the pandemic was a joint psy-op by China and the West).
      Far-fetched? Quite the opposite. After all, we knew that following the covid something else would have to come along to fuel the control & demolition campaign.

      • Xabier says:

        Or it might be that Russia is closing its grip on the cities gradually – hoping for a collapse of Ukrainian moral and a request for peace terms before any serious and inevitably very costly assaults are needed – and the frustrated West is naturally resorting to shameless fictions in order to build their case against Putin as a war criminal and the Russians as savages.

        • JMS says:

          Don’t know, Xabier. If Russians wanted to change the status quo in Ukraine, it was in their interest to have a fast campaign, who would put Western governments before a fait accompli, as they did in Crimea.
          The fact that a week later comedian Zelensky is still in the country, that there is no footage of fightings to prove the reality of the conflict (to the point where the media has to resort to archive footage of other conflicts to try to convince us), and above all, the awareness I have that after the C-19 operation, it was necessary for another event to take place to distract attention, maintain fear and justify the coming economic upheavals (all with a view to Mr. schwab’s great technocratic reset) makes me think that this war (or “war”) is just a continuation of the pandemic by other means.

          I ‘d say that for the globalists, unlike Russia, it is vital that this conflict drags on for many months. And if it does, that will prove that the WEF’s “young leader of tomorrow” Putin has not acted to defend his country’s strategic security, but in collusion with the global technocratic clique. Well, we will have to wait and see.
          Meanwhile, this guy’s view makes all the sense

  30. Fast Eddy says:

    Ahhh….a maternity hospital.. bombing babies!

    I want to watch this .. but there’s no video … never any video https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498531758136082434

    No video at all – maybe they banned cell phones with cameras in Ukraine? https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/28/us-announces-plan-to-expel-russian-diplomats-from-un-liveblog

    Maybe there isn’t even a war….

    • Calibob says:

      Oh Jesus not you too FE.. the newest and most mind numbing trend on twitter. It’s all a movie! Fake war! Don’t ya know it’s crisis actors set in place and given lines by a NWO content creator and all the population is in on it!
      When my wife shows me Ukrainian language telegram videos with tears flowing down her cheeks, it’s is t what you see. Or what you think is this fake movie.
      It’s an old man cussing at the rubble that was his house, and kicking a dead Russian beside a blown out tank. It’s a woman screaming in the face of a russian checkpoint guard asking her to show a passport.
      It’s the air sirens in the background as we call family, and the empty shelves in their small town market.
      Can we please not pretend EVERYTHING is a ducking movie.

      • Kowalainen says:

        Movie?

        How about drama?
        Perhaps tragicomedy?

        Actors gonna act.

      • JMS says:

        Of course, it’s not all fake. There will be men and equipment on the ground, some bombing, displaced people, etc. but at least so far, and judging by what MSM shows us, this war seems to be being waged more with tears and statements than with bombs and deaths.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        And that there is no Matrix and what the MSM publishes — is reality.

        Yes – let’s hold norm up as our role model … and join the Zombies

        It makes for a much simpler life… you just chew your grass… and wait to die.. such a satisfying life

  31. Fast Eddy says:

    The Ontario government recently announced businesses will no longer have to seek proof of vaccination from their customers at the door as of Tuesday, Mar. 1, ending a system that’s been in place since last fall.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/covid-19-ottawa-vaccine-passport-businesses-keeping-it-1.6362995

    Hmmmm….

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Like everyone else.

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