Is the debt bubble supporting the world economy in danger of collapsing?

The years between 1981 and 2020 were very special years for the world economy because interest rates were generally falling:

Figure 1. Yields on 10-year and 3-month US Treasuries, in a chart made by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis, as of May 10, 2022.

In some sense, falling interest rates meant that debt was becoming increasingly affordable. The monthly out-of-pocket expense for a new $500,000 mortgage was falling lower and lower. Automobile payments for a new $30,000 vehicle could more easily be accommodated into a person’s budget. A business would find it more affordable to add $5,000,000 in new debt to open at an additional location. With these beneficial effects, it would be no surprise if a debt bubble were to form.

With an ever-lower cost of debt, the economy has had a hidden tailwind pushing it long between 1981 to 2020. Now that interest rates are again rising, the danger is that a substantial portion of this debt bubble may collapse. My concern is that the economy may be heading for an incredibly hard landing because of the inter-relationship between interest rates and energy prices (Figure 2), and the important role energy plays in powering the economy.

Figure 2. Chart showing the important role Quantitative Easing (QE) to lower interest rates plays in adjusting the level of “demand” (and thus the selling price) for oil. Lower interest rates make goods and services created with higher-priced oil more affordable. In addition to the items noted on the chart, US QE3 was discontinued in 2014, about the time of the 2014 oil price crash. Also, the debt bubble crash of 2008 seems to be the indirect result of the US raising short term interest rates (Figure 1) in the 2004 to 2007 period.

In this post, I will try to explain my concerns.

[1] Ever since civilization began, a combination of (a) energy consumption and (b) debt has been required to power the economy.

Under the laws of physics, energy is required to power the economy. This happens because it takes the “dissipation” of energy to perform any activity that contributes to GDP. The energy dissipated can be the food energy that a person eats, or it can be wood or coal or another material burned to provide energy. Sometimes the energy dissipated is in the form of electricity. Looking back, we can see the close relationship between total energy consumption and world total GDP.

Figure 3. World energy consumption for the period 1990 to 2020, based on energy data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy and world Purchasing Power Parity GDP in 2017 International Dollars, as published by the World Bank.

The need for debt or some other approach that acts as a funding mechanism for capital expenditures (sale of shares of stock, for example), comes from the fact that humans make investments that will not produce a return for many years. For example, ever since civilization began, people have been planting crops. In some cases, there is a delay of a few months before a crop is produced; in other cases, such as with fruit or nut trees, there can be a delay of years before the investment pays back. Even the purchase by an individual of a home or a vehicle is, in a sense, an investment that will offer a return over a period of years.

With all parts of the economy benefiting from the lower interest rates (except, perhaps, banks and others lending the funds, who are making less profit from the lower interest rates), it is easy to see why lower interest rates would tend to stimulate new investment and drive up demand for commodities.

Commodities are used in great quantity, but the supply available at any one time is tiny by comparison. A sudden increase in demand will tend to send the commodity price higher because the quantity of the commodity available will need to be rationed among more would-be purchasers. A sudden decrease in the demand for a commodity (for example, crude oil, or wheat) will tend to send prices lower. Therefore, we see the strange sharp corners in Figure 2 that seem to be related to changing debt levels and higher or lower interest rates.

[2] The current plan of central banks is to raise interest rates aggressively. My concern is that this approach will leave commodity prices too low for producers. They will be tempted to decrease or stop production.

Politicians are concerned about the price of food and fuel being too high for consumers. Lenders are concerned about interest rates being too low to properly compensate for the loss of value of their investments due to inflation. The plan, which is already being implemented in the United States, is to raise interest rates and to significantly reverse Quantitative Easing (QE). Some people call the latter Quantitative Tightening (QT).

The concern that I have is that aggressively raising interest rates and reversing QE will lead to commodity prices that are too low for producers. There are likely to be many other impacts as well, such as the following:

  • Lower energy supply, due to cutbacks in production and lack of new investment
  • Lower food supply, due to inadequate fertilizer and broken supply lines
  • Much defaulting of debt
  • Pension plans that reduce or stop payments because of debt-related problems
  • Falling prices of stock
  • Defaults on derivatives

[3] My analysis shows how important increased energy consumption has been to economic growth over the last 200 years. Energy consumption per capita has been growing during this entire period, except during times of serious economic distress.

Figure 4. World energy consumption from 1820-2010, based on data from Appendix A of Vaclav Smil’s Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects and BP Statistical Review of World Energy for 1965 and subsequent. Wind and solar energy are included in “Biofuels.”

Figure 4 shows the amazing growth in world energy consumption between 1820 and 2010. In the early part of the period, the energy used was mostly wood burned as fuel. In some parts of the world, animal dung was also used as fuel. Gradually, other fuels were added to the mix.

Figure 5. Estimated average annual increase in world energy consumption over 10-year periods using the data underlying Figure 4, plus similar additional data through 2020.

Figure 5 takes the same information shown in Figure 4 and calculates the average approximate annual increase in world energy consumption over 10-year periods. A person can see from this chart that the periods from 1951-1960 and from 1961-1970 were outliers on the high side. This was the time of rebuilding after World War II. Many families were able to own a car for the first time. The US highway interstate system was begun. Many pipelines and electricity transmission lines were built. This building continued into the 1971-1980 period.

Figure 6. Same chart as Figure 5, except that the portion of economic growth that was devoted to population growth is shown in blue at the bottom of each 10-year period. The amount of growth in energy consumption “left over” for improvement in the standard of living is shown in red.

Figure 6 displays the same information as Figure 5, except that each column is divided into two pieces. The lower (blue) portion represents the average annual growth in population during each period. The part left over at the top (in red) represents the growth in energy consumption that was available for increases in standard of living.

Figure 7. The same information displayed in Figure 6, displayed as an area chart. Blue areas represent average annual population growth percentages during these 10-year periods. The red area is determined by subtraction. It represents the amount of energy consumption growth that is “left over” for growth in the standard of living. Captions show distressing events during periods of low increases in the portion available to raise standards of living.

Figure 7 shows the same information as Figure 6, displayed as an area chart. I have also shown some of the distressing events that happened when growth in population was, in effect, taking up essentially all of energy consumption growth. The world economy could not grow normally. There was a tendency toward conflict. Unusual events would happen during these periods, including the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union and the restrictions associated with the COVID pandemic.

The economy is a self-organizing system that behaves strangely when there is not enough inexpensive energy of the right types available to the system. Wars tend to start. Layers of government may disappear. Strange lockdowns may occur, such as the current restrictions in China.

[4] The energy situation at the time of rising interest rates in the 1960 to 1980 period was very different from today.

If we define years with high inflation rates as those with inflation rates of 5% or higher, Figure 8 shows that the period with high US inflation rates included nearly all the years from 1969 through 1982. Using a 5% inflation cutoff, the year 2021 would not qualify as a high inflation rate year.

Figure 8. US inflation rates, based on Table 1.1.4 Price Index for Gross Domestic Product, published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

It is only when we look at annualized quarterly data that inflation rates start spiking to high levels. Inflation rates have been above 5% in each of the four quarters ended 2022-Q1. Trade problems related to the Ukraine Conflict have tended to add to price pressures recently.

Figure 9. US inflation rates, based on Table 1.1.4 Price Index for Gross Domestic Product, published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Underlying these price spikes are increases in the prices of many commodities. Some of this represents a bounce back from artificially low prices that began in late 2014, probably related to the discontinuation of US QE3 (See Figure 2). These prices were far too low for producers. Coal and natural gas prices have also needed to rise, as a result of depletion and prior low prices. Food prices are also rising rapidly, since food is grown and transported using considerable quantities of fossil fuels.

The main differences between that period leading up to 1980 and now are the following:

[a] The big problem in the 1970s was spiking crude oil prices. Now, our problems seem to be spiking crude oil, natural gas and coal prices. In fact, nuclear power may also be a problem because a significant portion of uranium processing is performed in Russia. Thus, we now seem to be verging on losing nearly all our energy supplies to conflict or high prices!

[b] In the 1970s, there were many solutions to the crude oil problem, which were easily implemented. Electricity production could be switched from crude oil to coal or nuclear, with little problem, apart from building the new infrastructure. US cars were very large and fuel inefficient in the early 1970s. These could be replaced with smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles that were already being manufactured in Europe and Japan. Home heating could be transferred to natural gas or propane, to save crude oil for places where energy density was really needed.

Today, we are told that a transition to green energy is a solution. Unfortunately, this is mostly wishful thinking. At best, a transition to green energy will need a huge investment of fossil fuels (which are increasingly unavailable) over a period of at least 30 to 50 years if it is to be successful. See my article, Limits to Green Energy Are Becoming Much Clearer. Vaclav Smil, in his book Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects, discusses the need for very long transitions because energy supply needs to match the devices using it. Furthermore, new energy types are generally only add-ons to other supply, not replacements for those supplies.

[c] The types of economic growth in (a) the 1960 to 1980 period and (b) the period since 2008 are very different. In the earlier of these periods (especially prior to 1973), it was easy to extract oil, coal and natural gas inexpensively. Inflation-adjusted oil prices of less than $20 per barrel were typical. An ever-increasing supply of this oil seemed to be available. New machines (created with fossil fuels) made workers increasingly efficient. The economy tended to “overheat” if interest rates were not repeatedly raised (Figure 1). While higher interest rates could be expected to slow the economy, this was of little concern because rapid growth seemed to be inevitable. The supply of finished goods and services made by the economy was growing rapidly, even with headwinds from the higher interest rates.

On the other hand, in the 2008 to 2020 period, economic growth is largely the result of financial manipulation. The system has been flooded with increasing amounts of debt at ever lower interest rates. By the time of the lockdowns of 2020, would-be workers were being paid for doing nothing. World production of finished goods and services declined in 2020, and it has had difficulty rising since. In the first quarter of 2022, the US economy contracted by -1.4%. If headwinds from higher interest rates and QT are added, the economic system is likely to encounter substantial debt defaults and increasing breakdowns of supply lines.

[5] Today’s spiking energy prices appear to be much more closely related to the problems of the 1913 to 1945 era than they are to the problems of the late 1970s.

Looking back at Figure 7, our current period is more like the period between the two world wars than the period in the 1970s that we often associate with high inflation. In both periods, the “red” portion of the chart (the portion I identify with rising standard of living), has pretty much disappeared. In both the 1913 to 1945 period and today, it is nearly all the energy supplies other than biofuels that are disappearing.

In the 1913 to 1945 period, the problem was coal. Mines were becoming increasingly depleted, but raising coal prices to pay for the higher cost of extracting coal from depleted mines tended to make the coal prohibitively expensive. Mine operators tried to reduce wages, but this was not a solution either. Fighting broke out among countries, almost certainly related to inadequate coal supplies. Countries wanted coal to supply to their citizens so that industry could continue, and so that citizens could continue heating their homes.

Figure 10. Slide prepared by Gail Tverberg showing peak coal estimates for the UK and for Germany.

As stated at the beginning of this section, today’s problem is that nearly all our energy supplies are becoming unaffordable. In some sense, wind and solar may look better, but this is because of mandates and subsidies. They are not suitable for operating the world economy within any reasonable time frame.

There are other parallels to the 1913 to 1945 period. One of the big problems of the 1930s was prices that would not rise high enough for farmers to make a profit. Oil prices in the United States were extraordinarily low then. BP 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy reports that the average oil price in 1931, in 2020 US$, was $11.08. This is the lowest inflation-adjusted price of any year back to 1865. Such a price was almost certainly too low for producers to make a profit. Low prices, relative to rising costs, have recently been problems for both farmers and oil producers.

Another major problem of the 1930s was huge income disparity. Wide income disparity is again an issue today, thanks to increased specialization. Competition with unskilled workers in low wage countries is also an issue.

It is important to note that the big problem of the 1930s was deflation rather than inflation, as the debt bubble started popping in 1929.

[6] If a person looks only at the outcome of raising interest rates in the 1960s to 1980 timeframe, it is easy to get a misleading idea of the impact of increased interest rates now.

If people look only at what happened in the 1980s, the longer-term impact of the spike in interest rates doesn’t seem too severe. The world economy was growing well before the interest rates were raised. After the peak in interest rates, the world economy generally continued to grow. As a result of the high oil prices and the spiking interest rates, the world hastened its transition to using a bit less crude oil per person.

Figure 11. Per capita crude oil production from 1973 through 2021. Crude oil amounts are from international statistics of the US Energy Information Administration. Population estimates are from UN 2019 population estimates. The low population growth projection from the UN data is used for 2021.

At the same time, the world economy was able to expand the use of other energy products, at least through 2018.

Figure 12. World per capita total energy supply based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. World per capita crude oil is based on international data of the EIA, together with UN 2019 population estimates. Note that crude oil data is through 2021, but total energy amounts are only through 2020.

Since 2019, our problem has been that the total energy supply has not been keeping up with the rising population. The cost of extraction of all kinds of oil, coal and natural gas keeps rising due to depletion, but the ability of customers to afford the higher prices of finished goods and services made with those energy products does not rise to match these higher costs. Energy prices probably would have spiked in 2020 if it were not for COVID-related restrictions. Production of oil, coal and natural gas has not been able to rise sufficiently after the lockdowns for economies to fully re-open. This is the primary reason for the recent spiking of energy prices.

Turning to inflation rates, the relationship between higher interest rates (Figure 1) and annual inflation rates (Figure 8) is surprisingly not very close. Inflation rates rose during the 1960 to 1973 period despite rising interest rates, mostly likely because of the rapid growth of the economy from an increased per-capita supply of inexpensive energy.

Figure 8 shows that inflation rates did not come down immediately after interest rates were raised to a high level in 1980, either. There was a decline in the inflation rate to 4% in 1983, but it was not until the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991 that inflation rates have tended to stay close to 2% per year.

[7] A more relevant recent example with respect to the expected impact of rising interest rates is the impact of the increase in US short-term interest rates in the 2004 to 2007 period. This led to the subprime debt collapse in the US, associated with the Great Recession of 2008-2009.

Looking back at Figure 1, one can see the effect of raising short-term interest rates in the 2004 to 2007 era. This eventually led to the Great Recession of 2008-2009. I wrote about this in my academic paper, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis, published in the journal Energy in 2010.

The situation we are facing today is much more severe than in 2008. The debt bubble is much larger. The shortage of energy products has spread beyond oil to coal and natural gas, as well. The idea of raising interest rates today is very much like going into the Great Depression and deciding to raise interest rates because bankers don’t feel like they are getting an adequate share of the goods and services produced by the economy. If there really aren’t enough goods and services for everyone, giving lenders a larger share of the total supply cannot work out well.

[8] The problems we are encountering have been hidden for many years by an outdated understanding of how the economy operates.

Because of the physics of the economy, it behaves very differently than most people assume. People almost invariably assume that all aspects of the economy can “stay together” regardless of whether there are shortages of energy or of other products. People also assume that shortages will be immediately become obvious through high prices, without realizing the huge role interest rates and debt levels play. People further assume that these spiking prices will somehow bring about greater supply, and the whole system will go on as before. Furthermore, they expect that whatever resources are in the ground, which we have the technical capability to extract, can be extracted.

It is important to note that prices are not necessarily a good indicator of shortages. Just as a fever can have many causes, high prices can have many causes.

The economy can only continue as long as all of its important parts continue. We cannot assume that reported reserves of anything can really be extracted, even if the reserves have been audited by a reliable auditor. What actually can be extracted depends on prices staying high enough to generate funds for additional investment as required. The amount that can be extracted also depends on the continuation of international supply lines providing goods such as steel pipe. The continued existence of governments that can keep order in the areas where extraction is to take place is important, as well.

What we should be most concerned about is a very rapidly shrinking economic system that cannot accommodate very many people. It seems that such a situation might occur if the debt bubble is popped and too many supply lines are broken. There may be a time lag between when interest rates are raised and when the adverse impacts on the economy are seen. This is a reason why central bankers should be very cautious about the increases in interest rates they make as well as QT. The situation may turn out much worse than planned!

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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4,216 Responses to Is the debt bubble supporting the world economy in danger of collapsing?

  1. Fast Eddy says:

    https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/36280 – some people are non-binary and are MOREONS – they don’t know that … but they are.. it’s a gender

  2. Fast Eddy says:

    Once again — Igor delivers:

    Ba.5 is a “Variant for Boosted People”

    South Africa vs. Portugal: Same Variant, Opposite Outcomes

    Summary: The BA4/5 sister variants currently dominate two countries: South Africa and Portugal. South Africa is barely vaccinated (only 35% had a vaccine, 5% had a booster), whereas Portugal is 95% vaccinated and 70% boosted. The situations in these countries could not be any more different: while Ba.4 and Ba.5 were mere blips on the radar in South Africa, these same variants are driving a deadly wave of Covid in highly-vaccinated Portugal, with deaths among the Portuguese nearing January peak and showing few signs of abating.

    South Africa and Portugal form a two-country controlled experiment: vaccinate one country and do not vaccinate another, and expose both to Covid Ba4/5. The difference in outcomes is telling.

    While no two countries are alike, this is a very alarming finding. Mind you, just about everyone in Portugal had Covid by the end of last winter. Thus, this current wave of infections and deaths in Portugal is driven by reinfections.

    Why are reinfections happening? Because boosted people are unable to acquire proper immunity upon infection. Thus, they are forced to endure endless Covid reinfections, that further damage their immune systems, inviting more illness.

    https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/ba5-is-a-variant-for-boosted-people?s=r

    https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc2855bc2-9671-4a67-a266-4a0c056f6fa0_1600x600.jpeg

    https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe46b231b-00e9-406c-96c9-6f334d8ecc0e_1077x682.jpeg

    woooooahhhh!!!

    https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3824ff46-36a2-4fc0-80ce-6f5ade385185_1065x774.jpeg

    • Xabier says:

      Poor JMS, living in the middle of that!

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I assume JMS is not on the Booster Train…

        If so then perhaps this is a Disneyland of Death and Suffering (DDS) … and he’s got immunity!

        He gets to watch (smugly of course) as the CovIDIOTS go down … serenaded by the sirens of the ambulances (E-Aw… E-Aw…) racing to and fro dumping their diseased cargo at the overwhelmed emergency departments….

        And … I will assume that the CCM in Portugal is blaming all of this on Long Covid … and urging the MOREONS to Re-Boost… and the MOREONS are Doing as they are Told (TM mike) cuz Stay Safe.

        I feel tremendous envy for JMS — I can’t wait for DDS NZ-style to lift off…. I might park outside the local hospital… and watch. I like to watch. And real live watching is so much better than video.

      • JMS says:

        It’s not as serious as it may seem, Xabier, at least for now. But no doubt it can only get worse, in a country where only 6% have refused to be injected, and 87% are “double/triple/quadruple protected”.

        In any case, it seems obvious now that the damage caused by this covid-injections is rarely immediate, which means its most harmful effects will manifest themselves within years, rather than months. As in fact it should be, since a devil covid scenario would terrorize the herd, which is probably a big no no for the reseters.

        For now, what I can anecdotally guarantee is that all the vaccinated people I know have been sick with Covid (R) after the injections, never before. And that the two non-injected people I know (me & wife) have never had Covid (R), not even in its PCR test form.
        Saludos!

  3. Fast Eddy says:

    The Medicare Data: How Can You Explain a 50% Rise in All-Cause Mortality for an Intervention That’s Supposed to Save Lives?

    Steve Kirsch: (http://t.me/stkirsch) “How can you explain a 50% rise in all-cause mortality after the vaccines and boosters rolled out? That’s the problem. They can’t explain it. You can’t explain a 50% rise in all-cause mortality after the intervention that’s supposed to reduce all-cause mortality was rolled out. They don’t want to explain it. That is why they are never going to show you the Medicare data.”

    Video via t.me/childcovidvaccineinjuriesuk

  4. Fast Eddy says:

    New Zealand Mainstream Media Campaign to Rebrand Vaccine Injury As Long Covid (Part 2)

    Is it vaccine injury or ‘Long Covid’?

    The mainstream media, with their ongoing campaign of gaslighting and propaganda, clearly want you to think it’s the latter.

    This video . . .

    Bitchute
    https://www.bitchute.com/video/mWMyyimEvs3w/

    Rumble
    https://rumble.com/v15e1hz-may-20-2022.html

  5. Fast Eddy says:

    Dr. Guy Hatchard: The New Zealand Government is Running and Hiding From A Crisis Of Excess Deaths Since Vaccine Roll Out

    Dr Guy Hatchard speaks with Alia Bee of Voices for Freeom about the high number of excess deaths there have been since the start of the vaccine roll-out

    Sources:

    Voices for Freedom: The Hatchard Report, with Guy Hatchard, 22 May, 2022:
    https://odysee.com/@voicesforfreedom:6/Hatchard-Report-22-May:b

    Israeli Study Finds Emergency Cardiac Events Associated With mRNA Vaccination
    https://bit.ly/3MNxxK8

    New Zealand Mainstream Media Campaign to Rebrand Vaccine Injury As Long Covid (Part 1)

    The mainstream media, with their ongoing campaign of gaslighting and propaganda, clearly want you to think it’s the latter.

    This Video . . .

    Bitchute
    https://www.bitchute.com/video/aPokjc9yAqDh/

    Rumble
    https://rumble.com/v159yxb-200000-new-zealanders-could-be-affected-by-long-covid-but-dont-mention-the-.html

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      According to the second link:

      Today I received a message from a friend. A 17 year old relative collapsed at the roadside with heart pains. The response of her parents to a suggestion that it could be vaccine related: “you must be joking”. This is where government information has left the public. The risks are real but the information is not.

      This makes me terribly sad because it goes against the duty of care that our government and medical system owes the public. Young people are at risk of cardiac events following vaccination, but the risks are largely absent from the vaccine promotional advertising.

      Who writes the advertising copy and who approves it? The Brothers Grimm? This is not a casual matter of minor misrepresentation, this is unconscionable.

      There is also a link to an article in Nature talking about heart related risks in the same article.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        A 17 year old relative collapsed at the roadside with heart pains.

        The response of her parents to a suggestion that it could be vaccine related: “you must be joking”.

        Now that’s a great punchline hahaha… and the CovIDIOT parents responded by — you must be joking… hahahahaha…

        I’ll buy that for a dollar!

        Maybe someone blew a whistle? Or she exerted herself by bending down to tie her shoe?

        Anything but the vax. Anything .. but… The Vax!!!!

        Hip hip hooray… hip hip hooray…. the MOREONS cannot handle the truth.

  6. Fast Eddy says:

    hahahaha they are poisoning their own babies — awesome!

    Baby die off happening… awesome awesome awesome!!!

    https://www.redvoicemedia.com/video/2022/06/baby-die-off-and-the-culling-of-humanity-dr-naomi-wolf-joins-the-highwire-video-interview/

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      More things related to what was found out through the Pfizer Freedom of Information data dump.

      • Xabier says:

        One can see just why the FDA and Pfizer wanted those documents effectively sealed – being released only very slowly – for 75 yrs!

        Naomi Wolf has grown from being just another fashionable feminist author to a person of great stature and integrity.

        She, too, is turning to God, a development which has taken her by surprise. Although I believe her synagogue – even very liberal Jews have one a a matter of tradition – ostracised her for her stance on vaccination.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          You’d think that given the scale of this diabolical plan… that if god was ever going to intervene … know is the time …. but as usual… he sits on his hands… and accepts donations and ego-stroking prayers

  7. I must admit that I spend a prodigious amount of time on OFW. It is difficult to imagine life without the internet.

    • the internet is great for reality based economics, energy based not academic old school university woketard finance based.

      also great for worldwide info on the ongoing collapse of many Periphery countries.

      it looks fairly good that the internet will continue in the Core into the 2030s so that the information flow about collapsing regions can reach our computer screens.

      indeed, it would be difficult to live on, if the daily rush from this information was to end.

      more internet on my screen tonight, baby.

      • Sam says:

        “”it looks fairly good that the internet will continue in the Core into the 2030s so that the information flow about collapsing regions can reach our computer screens.”
        I don’t know but that sounds like a bold statement considering what has happened in the last three years

        • well, let’s look at that:

          in the last three years, the Core hasn’t lost any club members that I can think of (?).

          meanwhile, with a slight reduction of net energy flowing through the world economy, the Periphery is starting to fall to pieces.

          countries like Venezuela and Yemen may have preceded this 3 year period, but since then, countries like Lebanon and Sri Lanka and Argentina and Turkey are failed or at least failing.

          perhaps Argentina and Turkey might be considered Core, though that seems to be a stretch.

          but certainly the Core could be in for some lost members in the next few years.

          European countries come to mind, for some reason.

          if the Core shrinks, okay it shrinks, though I hope to be still standing, and reading about this at least to 2030.

          it will be interesting to see results.

          bold American bAU tonight, baby.

          que sera sera.

          • Sam says:

            The core hasn’t collapsed…..well the night is young. I am not saying it will collapse tomorrow but it will in the next 4 years

      • Xabier says:

        It’s a great resource at present, especially food growing and preservation videos on YT, although don’t know why a LGBT+ film entitle ‘In From The Side’ (shudder, does that mean what I think it does?) came up as recommended the other day.

        But with no internet, I’d just read more poetry and burrow through the tottering piles of books here.

        • Mrs S says:

          Thanks for your tinned meat tips, btw.

          Marks and Spencer is a good idea for trustworthy tinned meat. I might have to take a trip and buy a case.

          • Xabier says:

            My pleasure, Mrs S.

            People seem utterly complacent, so you probably won’t have any competition – buy now before the quality drops, I suppose. Canned chicken has reappeared as ‘Chicken Casserole’ I see, and ‘Mild Curry’.

            There hasn’t even been a rush on 100-packs of tea lights at John Lewis despite the black-out warnings .

            Nor on pasta and other staples.

            A case of turkeys not recognising the word ‘Christmas’?

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Imagine the deep depression that would result if the internet stopped forever.

      Withdrawal would lead to big soosiside numbers

    • D. Stevens says:

      Prior to the internet I enjoyed magazines, catalogs, library books, and shortwave radio. I’m unsure if any of those things could adapt to losing the internet now that everything is so dependent on it.

  8. Fast Eddy says:

    Tainted Breast Milk: Vaccinated Mothers Are Lactating a Petroleum Product Straight to the Baby

    Dr. Naomi Wolf: “They [the NIH] found polyethylene glycol in trace amounts in vaccinated women’s breast milk. They decided it was negligible. How much of a petroleum product is negligible when you’re a tiny newborn with no immunities, and this is your only food? And the study acknowledged that the vaccinated mothers’ babies are having agitation and sleeplessness and gastrointestinal issues.”

    truthsocial.com/@VigilantFox/108421373789242531

  9. Fast Eddy says:

    Baby Die-Off and the Culling of Humanity

    Dr. Naomi Wolf reveals the latest findings from the Pfizer documents with Del Bigtree.

    https://www.redvoicemedia.com/video/2022/06/baby-die-off-and-the-culling-of-humanity-dr-naomi-wolf-joins-the-highwire-video-interview/

    Red Voice Media (https://www.redvoicemedia.com/video/2022/06/baby-die-off-and-the-culling-of-humanity-dr-naomi-wolf-joins-the-highwire-video-interview/)
    Baby Die-Off and the Culling of Humanity: Dr. Naomi Wolf Joins the Highwire [VIDEO INTERVIEW]
    Investigative Journalist and former Clinton Advisor, Dr. Naomi Wolf, details alarming new data from the latest Pfizer COVID-1

  10. Fast Eddy says:

    FDA ISSUE HEART INFLAMMATION WARNING FOR NOVAVAX…

    It was always going to happen.

    The SPIKE is the pathogen.

    https://moderndiscontent.substack.com/p/all-roads-lead-to-spike-protein?r=1g7fr&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=direct

    All Roads Lead to Spike (Protein) – Modern Discontent
    US FDA issues warning of myocarditis for Novavax’s COVID vaccine, suggesting a common factor being the spike protein across all vaccine platforms.
    moderndiscontent.substack.com

  11. Fast Eddy says:

    Ooooooo

    SPIKE PROTEIN ANTIBODIES IN THE HEART…

    In New Zealand our MOH is still informing us that the lipid encased mRNA remains in the deltoid muscle and the body has elminated it within 48 hours.

    How do they explain an immune response to spike proteins (following covid vaccination) in HEART CELLS?

    In case of myocarditis after covid vaccination one can find SARS-CoV-2 spike protein antibodies in the heart tissue …

    Cardiac myocytes seem to extress the spike protein with subsequent heart inflammation. THE IMMUNE SYSTEM ATTACKS THE HEART

    https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/internalmedicine/advpub/0/advpub_9800-22/_article

    This revelation calls for Monkey Sounds!

    https://youtu.be/xtItVu6qLRc?t=21

  12. Fast Eddy says:

    enjoy your flight https://t.me/chiefnerd/3748

    hahaha https://t.me/chiefnerd/3749 yep

    IN NEW ZEALAND PEOPLE WHO HAVE PREVIOUSLY HAD MYOCARDITIS OR PERICARDITIS ARE UNSUCCESSFUL IN OBTAINING EXEMPTIONS FOR THE PFIZER…

    The rationale (if you can call it that) is…

    “Ah but the risk of myocarditis from the vaccine is so much lower than the risk of myocarditis if you catch covid”.

    Here is an enormous new study from Israel which casts that particular lethal fallacy into the abyss for all time.

    The question is just how many years it will take before the NZ MOH chooses to apply the evidence here in NZ.

    https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/11/8/2219

    THE USA NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF HEALTH HAS JUST PUBLISHED THE VERY FIRST “INSTITUTION” STUDY OF NEUROLOGICAL DAMAGE POST COVID VACCINE…

    The study of 21 people claims that ALL PARTICIPANTS ARE FULLY RECOVERED following various treatments.

    This interview is with a retired American Gastroenterologist, who was neurologically damaged by her vaccine….and was in the study.

    She makes the statement that she is far from recovered and that she has been able to identify TEN other study participants who are still unrecovered…..despite the published claim that ALL participants are recovered.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bvssp9uA72A

    YOU AND I WERE NEVER SUPPOSED TO SEE THIS CONFIDENTIAL PFIZER REPORT…

    But as a result of the USA court ordered “Pfizer Data Dump”….here it is

    Its an “Interim Adverse Events” report from the clinic trials…

    It is truly shocking…

    VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE KEY SERIOUS EVENT GROUPS THAT ARE NOW EFFECTING MILLIONS HAPPENED IN THE TRIAL PARTICIPANTS…

    Eye and ear issues

    Infections galore

    A plethora of heart issues….heart attacks, blockages, unstable blood pressure, tachycardia

    27 cases of Shingles

    Anxiety, depression,

    unstable diabetes

    chronic fatigue

    many many cases of gastrointestinal disorders

    I’m stunned that they knew all of this….presented this paper to the FDA and still got an EUA approval

    https://pdata0916.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/pdocs/060122/125742_S1_M5_5351_c4591001-fa-interim-adverse-events.pdf#page=2236

    • Xabier says:

      Well, they did tell us at the beginning in 2020 that the vaxx side-effects would be ‘no walk in the park’, as I recall.

      Remarkably honest! In fact, no more walks in the park for many victims.

      Caveat Emptor.

  13. Fast Eddy says:

    What amazes me … is that there is evidence that the DOD faked their numbers…

    Imagine the power involved to order that — particularly when it means that the military capability is being damaged by these injections — this is treason. It is something that would be punished by very long stretches in prison.

    But it happened. And the CCM ignores it. Think of the POWER. It’s almost as if a small cabal of men — have total control over everything.

    In this interview they do not ask the obvious question – why wreck the health of your military?

    UEP.

    https://rumble.com/v15wvf9-did-the-dod-commit-fraud-a-conversation-with-mathew-crawford.html

    • Xabier says:

      Why cripple highly-trained soldiers and airmen? Why inject babies and the healthy young? Why stick it into the pregnant and nursing?

      And why bury the evidence of harm, and push on as deaths and injuries mount to the skies?

      Unanswerable questions, unless something deeply nefarious is afoot!

      And all internationally-co-ordinated as if by some unseen hand…….

      • D. Stevens says:

        Why not inject them? It’s safe and effective. There is no harm in it. The only danger is in allowing the unvaccinated to spread and encourage dangerous variants. Covid is very dangerous to many people. The infection fatality rate is close to zero for people between the ages of 15 and 44, but it increases to 3.1% for 65–74-year-olds and to a whopping 11.6% for anyone older. We can’t have people over 80 years old having a nearly 12% risk of dying. That’s unacceptable and justified locking down everything for 2 years and mandating a warp speed vaccine.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I got as far as hearing that there seem to be three versions of the DOD health care data base.

      As we heard about previously, the DOD database seemed to show very high cases for 2021, compared to prior years. Then the DOD came out with amended prior years, with a whole lot more cases in them, so that the big increase in cases doesn’t occur. Now, there appears to be a third data base, that differs from the previous two, which is perhaps the “real” data base.

      What is it that is do interesting about this video. Where do I find it?

  14. Fast Eddy says:

    SE 2019 meltdown of the repo market … yep… that was when UEP was put into action …

    https://rumble.com/v15wvf9-did-the-dod-commit-fraud-a-conversation-with-mathew-crawford.html

  15. Fast Eddy says:

    Not gonna lie, if I had the Covid vaccine I would trip everytime I get as much as a muscle cramp in my chest.

    https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/328529

    @DowdEdward

    Israel National News (https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/328529)
    New study links COVID vaccines to 25% increase in cardiac arrest for both males & females
    Study based on data from emergency services. COVID infection itself not linked to significant in

  16. kulmthestatusquo
    kulmthestatusquo says:

    Gail said people won’t move to CA, but unfortunately its climate is too enticing to make people not want to move to there.

    There will be people who will be moving into there even if gas is $50/gallon.

    Same logic about those who move into Hong Kong, to live in steel cages. That is more comfortable than whatever life they had back home.

    In fact, the whole ‘Galt’s Gulches” will look like Hong Kong, with the people who don’t exactly belong will be safely in the cages at nighttime, out of sight by the people who do matter who will enjoy nightime walks without having to worry about being mugged.

  17. Fast Eddy says:

    I am reposting this interview. It is SO important. The glitch in the data matrix is real.

    https://rumble.com/v15wvf9-did-the-dod-commit-fraud-a-conversation-with-mathew-crawford.html

    @DowdEdward

    Rumble (https://rumble.com/v15wvf9-did-the-dod-commit-fraud-a-conversation-with-mathew-crawford.html)

    Did the DoD Commit Fraud? A Conversation with Mathew Crawford
    In this episode of the “Make Language Great Again” podcast, I talk to Mathew Crawford. Links: Article: https://tessa.substack.com/p/mathew-crawford-dod Mathew Crawford’s Substack: https://roundingthee

  18. Fast Eddy says:

    Shot dead in SLanka https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-61667282

    I know – let’s drop 20 nukes on SLanka as an experiment.

  19. Rodster says:

    Global CV19 Vax Absolute Insanity – Dr. Ryan Cole

    https://usawatchdog.com/global-cv19-vax-absolute-insanity-dr-ryan-cole/

    Dr. Cole goes on to explain, “This shot was a mistake. We rolled it out on humanity as an experiment. We were told it was approved, safe and effective, and they lied to humanity. The problem is it’s a nuclear bomb platform. It’s a Lipid Nanoparticle plus a modified mRNA that you can’t turn off. It’s a nuclear bomb, and we don’t know the long-term safety and outcomes.”

    Dr. Cole is seeing dramatic increases in all types of illness such as aggressive cancers, heart disease, strokes, brain problems and autoimmune disease to name a few. Dr. Cole says, “We are damaging the immune system. Why are so many people getting sick with other things right now? Because their immune system is suppressed. . . . Is there malicious intent behind what they are doing? I can’t prove that. Do I think with all the harm we are seeing that there are very unfortunate characters knowing that they are doing harm to people? Yeah, I do. Genocide for profit are strong words, but it’s hard to argue with it at this point. We are seeing so much harm, and we are not seeing anybody stopping it.”

    What is the trend line for injuries and deaths from the CV19 injections? Dr. Cole says, “The trend line is going up. We can see that in the data . . . and it is considerable. We are seeing that the people who have gotten the shots are getting Covid at higher rates and other diseases at higher rates. We are seeing all-cause mortality, those who have gotten too many shots, are dying at a much higher rate.”

    • Fast Eddy says:

      The thing is…

      It’s not a mistake … if you owned a farm that had 10000 head of beef… you don’t inject them with an experimental substance that is supposed to protect them from a disease that is not a threat to your herd — because you sell off the cows before they get old and riddled with disease… you only have healthy cows

      You only do this if the goal is to exterminate your herd…. perhaps a mega drought has made feeding them impossible so you put them down rather than watch them starve

      • Tim Groves says:

        You have a mind like a bacon slicer and you have employed ice cold hard-as-steel logic to reach the most likely and reasonable conclusion.

        “How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the possible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?”

        —Jeremy Brett

  20. Fast Eddy says:

    At a Council on Foreign Relations forum about “fake news,” former Editor at Time Magazine Richard Stengel directly states that he supports the use of propaganda on American citizens – then shuts the session down when challenged about how propaganda is used against the third world

    https://twitter.com/williamcraddick/status/995026256214179840

  21. Fast Eddy says:

    Finally to the 20 to 24s.

    As expected, nothing but noise during the whole of 2020. COVID does not affect, young, healthy people.

    But, if you want to change all that, you can make them unhealthy. You could, for example, trash their immune systems and compel them to a host of adverse events by taking part in a mass medical experiment.

    28 or so might die. During the summer…

    But at least the survivors got to buy their groceries.

    https://metatron.substack.com/p/austria-you-know-how-the-story-goes?s=r

    https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1c388fb7-1e15-4ce7-802d-dc3236e336c7_2601x1951.png

  22. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Soaring Cost Of Living Causes Spike In Abandoned And Surrendered Pets

    According to a growing number of reports, the soaring costs of food, gas, and housing are causing a spike in the number of family pets being abandoned or surrendered to shelters.

    In January 2022, the first alarming animal shelter statistics began to emerge. While an average of 6.2 million animals are taken into shelters each year, only about 3.2 million find a home. The other three million are euthanized.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/soaring-cost-living-causes-spike-abandoned-and-surrendered-pets

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Adding to my political platform… my policy would be to put down the owners of the pets… seize their assets and fund a Pet Paradise for their abandoned animals.

  23. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    The most expensive gas in US is at this Mendocino station at nearly $10 a gallon, GasBuddy says

    MENDOCINO, Calif. (KGO) — If you think gas prices are bad at your neighborhood station, be glad you’re not filling up in Mendocino.

    Schlafer’s Auto Repair is selling regular gas for $9.60 for a gallon. But that’s not the worst part, if your car requires plus then you’ll have to shell out $9.69 and if you need supreme, well, get ready to pay $9.91 for just a gallon of gas.

    According to GasBuddy, it’s the most expensive gas in the country.

    The station’s owner has previously said that her prices are so high because, even though she gets her gas from Chevron, she’s an independent, and doesn’t sell food or drinks to help make ends meet
    https://abc7news.com/california-gas-mendocino-prices-schlafers-auto-repair-gasbuddy/11924002/

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      1. Someplace has to be highest.
      2. I expect that California will not be a popular state to move to in the next five years.

    • Last month I was on a road trip and filled up at a gas station in Santa Clara, CA. $6.49 per gallon. Total cost to fill up my Honda Civic (12.39 gallon tank): $60.46. I saved the receipt for posterity.

  24. Dennis L. says:

    This was posted on TM’s site by Don Stewart:

    “To show that such an eventuality is not entirely unlikely, I can imagine the US Medicare system being reformed to include only diagnostic testing, which is getting a lot cheaper and more available to the public without recourse to the medical profession. The government could simply say “our responsibility is to point to your risk…dealing with your risk is your responsibility…you can work on your lifestyle or you can buy drugs or you can go for counseling…that’s up to you and you pay for it”. Such a step would eliminate around 15 percent of US GDP, and a very high percentage of government obligations. While the step might be distasteful, it might also permit continuance of the Security State…which is a lot dearer to the heart of Washington than public health.”

    He might be on to something; this is similar to the iceberg solution to old age in Eskimo culture – or at least folk lore.

    Dennis L.

    • I like the idea of Death Panels
      Sarah Palin, ‘Death Panels’ and ‘Obamacare’
      By Glenn KesslerJune 27, 2012

      (J. Scott Applewhite/AP)
      “I stand by everything I wrote in that warning to my fellow Americans”

      — Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin (R), in a Facebook post titled “‘Death Panel’ Three Years Later’”

      The America I know and love is not one in which my parents or my baby with Down Syndrome will have to stand in front of Obama’s “death panel” so his bureaucrats can decide, based on a subjective judgment of their “level of productivity in society,” whether they are worthy of health care. Such a system is downright evil.

      …….
      Palin is seizing on a completely different entity to justify her provocative use of the phrase “death panel” three years ago. But the IPAB in no way resembles the “death panel” that she claims would decide whether her parents or her baby with Down Syndrome are worthy of care. Instead, it is a tool—subject to oversight and approval by Congress—to try to rein in the soaring cost of Medicare.

      Words have consequences, and Palin is fooling herself if she thinks she can justify such inappropriate terminology to describe an effort, however imperfect, to address a serious problem that politicians on both sides of the aisle say they want to solve.

      Thanks for the comment by our former poster Don Stewart here…miss the man and looked him up ..appears to still be residing in the Carolina’s

      • D. Stevens says:

        While assisted exit isn’t available we can choose hospice instead of expensive or painful interventions which is what I’ve done for family members nearing end of life. We can function as our own death panel to spare prolonging the suffering and excessive medical costs. I’m thankful we still have the medical freedom to refuse treatment.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Don is still dreaming of a Utopian Edo like community where we recycle our shit and grow rice…. like all of the sudden BAU collapses and we work that out before we starve.

        BTW – I am heaving lots of coal into the Rayburn this morning .. overcast and cold… have a space heater on as well…. this is Hoolio’s first encounter with cold – he’s a skinny dog and has a very thin coat so he’s not keen on the cold….

        He has discovered the space heater and is worshipping it beside me….

        All animals are the same – if you make a soft life available to them they will take it …

        The difference is that humans are the only animals with the ‘intelligence’ to create a soft life for themselves — by burning up finite inputs that make this soft life possible.

      • Tim Groves says:

        You couldn’t make it any clear than this.

    • HUBBS says:

      OTOH, by limiting diagnostics, the entry to costly medical treatment is blocked. One can’t get a lung lobe resection for cancer if there is no pre operative CT scan. Health care will be flat out rationed. As I mentioned in my memoirs, the big conflict will be between the corporate hospital providers, who can not survive on just Medicare and Medicaid, and the medical insurance companies, who employ banks of operators to constantly reject claims. Private commercial insurers will run out of customers, both individual and corporate sponsored health insurances due to unaffordability.

      The only “good” thing about food scarcity is that people will die from starvation instead of delays in treatment.

    • Rodster says:

      But what happens when the Government creates the problem such as vaccines that don’t work and harm people? The Medicare recipient who’s probably living on a string is then asked to pay for the out of control prices of SickCare?

      In 2015 I was admitted to Hospital and two emergency room doctors came in asked the exact same questions, left within 5 minutes and I was billed $895 for each doctor.

      Most who are on Medicare are those of little means so telling someone who has paid into the system and then are told, sorry we won’t cover that is just plain wrong for many reasons.

      The solution is pretty simple. End Social Security and Medicare, have the government stop confiscating peoples wages for something they are not going to get. Unfortunately that won’t happen because that helps fund the governments budget and allows them to send billions of taxpayers dollars so as to prolong the Ukrainian war.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Amusing how everyone believes that there should be health care … that we need to cure every disease…

        This is a very stoooopid MOREONIC belief…. because obviously the more we cure the greater the population becomes… and the closer we are to extinction. We rejoice now that the Black Death has been overcome… there are those who would like to cure malaria….

        Humans are very stoooopid.

        If a lion breaks a leg.. it dies.

        • Xabier says:

          It is this naive desire for a miraculous health care system, curing all ills, which made the Covid con feasible.

          It was simply brilliant to choose that angle of attack.

          Really, I salute them!

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Healthcare costs are absolutely absurd. I expect that broken supply lines will fix a lot of the high cost. If replacement parts for medical devices are not available, and medicines of all kinds are less available, the system will start falling apart. It is hard to schedule surgery, if all of the fancy things required are not available.

      Also, the level of care at nursing homes will go downhill. People will remember all of the restrictions during COVID, too. Nursing home care will go to those who can pay for it. The number choosing to pay will fall.

      • Doctors 😘 💕 to milk the system too. They pad the testing done 😁✅ and require regular visits to get prescription refills.
        Just had a ekg done at her cardiologist was and her primary care doctor had her do another !! To compare them!!!!
        Whatever…

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          This is why I go to Kaiser Permanente. It is one-stop shopping. The firm is paid by the number of people insured x months of insurance, not for extra un-needed services. Most things tend to be under one roof. There is less choice of doctor, but things tend to be coordinated well.

  25. kulmthestatusquo
    kulmthestatusquo says:

    As resources dwindle, a caste system is inevitable.

    China’s social credit system is the beginning on that direction. I had indicated that a taoist suggested this idea back in around 1600, when the existing dynasty clearly showed signs of decline.

    All available resources will be concentrated to the top. The rest will be relegated to hovels, pods and cages.

    • Gail, do you think that the pre-civil war agrarian economy of the southern states would be possible after the collapse? Industrialism first arose in the northern states? The south was kind of modelled on feudalism and landed property?

      • the north had a cheap surplus fungible energy source—coal

        the south had a (not quite so cheap or fungible) surplus energy resource, human muscle.

        200 lb of human muscle can deliver about 700w of power in short bursts

        200lb of coal can drive a steam engine for several miles

        that’s the very simple arithmetic of north vs south.

        the same arithmetic was applied by the USA in WW2–the Germans were using horses as draft animal in war zones. The allies were not.

        • JesseJames says:

          Alabama has iron ore and coal…everything it needs to make iron. The Schloss iron mill in what is now Birmingham was producing iron before the civil war, and continued to do so until the Union Army finally captured it and put it out of business in 1864. The remains, called the Schloss Furnace, can be seen and toured.
          Today Alabama mines coal and produces electricity largely from coal. Alabama is the 2nd largest exported of electricity of all 50 states.I have found bits of coal on my place here.

          If they can keep the Feds from putting the coal mines out of business, Alabama will continue to mine coal and make heat from it. Here’s a great story of the Drummond Company. In the 1940’s Grandpa Drummond went and got a bank loan in Jasper Alabama to open his first coal mine. For collateral he put up his mule and his wagon. Today the Drummond Company…still owned and managed by the Drummond family, has revenue of $2B per year.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Besides the issues Norman mentions, the Southern States do not have adequate land and soil for farmland. The South tends to be hilly. It does not have a good supply of fertile topsoil. It grows a lot pine trees, cotton and tobacco now. Also, in Georgia, there are quite a few chicken farms.

    • Xabier says:

      A ‘pod’ for me!

      Sounds like something in French Vogue: ‘Un Xabier, Un Style’.

      Hovels or cages don’t sound nearly as chic…..

      • Tim Groves says:

        That’s what I call entertainment!!

        I want to ride to the ridges where the west commences
        And gaze at the moon ‘tlll I lose my senses
        And I can’t look at hovels and I can’t stand fences
        Don’t fence me in

  26. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    “Vanguard and Blackrock are among the largest shareholders in Bavarian Nordic, which produces the Jynneos monkeypox vaccine. The largest shareholder is Invesco, which, by “coincidence,” works with the World Economic Forum. The stock began to skyrocket on May 9, 2022. ”
    https://twitter.com/JamesMaclaren78/status/1532815747155632130

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      How to make money off of manufactured crises.

    • Bobby says:

      ‘Monkey Ops’

  27. The new Australian government has appointed a minister for the republic, and the new PM Albanese is using the present 3 year term to hold a discussion on the constitutional future of Australia, with the intention to hold a referendum on the matter after the next elections in 3 years time. Watch this space!

    > ‘We stand as equals’: Anthony Albanese asserts Labor’s republican agenda in speech

    … Albanese won the federal election on 21 May, and this week appointed his new ministry, including a new minister overseeing Australia’s transition to a republic.

    Matt Thistlethwaite, a New South Wales right-winger, was on Wednesday sworn in as assistant minister for the republic by the Queen’s representative in Australia, the governor general, David Hurley.

    Labor’s 2021 national platform says the Australian Labor party “supports and will work toward establishing an Australian republic with an Australian head of state”. Albanese has spoken at events held by the Australian Republican Movement, telling a 2019 dinner “a modern Australian republic is an idea whose time has come”.

    But the new Labor government is not proposing to accelerate a transition to a republic during the current parliamentary term.

    In an interview this week with Guardian Australia, Thistlethwaite said his role over the next three years would be to educate the Australian people about the current constitutional arrangements and the English monarch as the head of state.

    Thistlethwaite said as Queen Elizabeth came “the twilight of her reign, it’s a good opportunity for a serious discussion about what comes next for Australia”.

    “Literally hundreds of Australians could perform the role, so why wouldn’t we appoint an Australian as our pinnacle position under the constitution? It will take time, but if you want to do it properly, we should begin the discussion now, so we’re ready to go in a second term of an Albanese government.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/02/we-stand-as-equals-anthony-albanese-asserts-labors-republican-agenda-in-speech-marking-queens-platinum-jubilee

  28. Sam says:

    The economic numbers must not be true. I know things are not being sold things are not being made it cannot be any GDP. But with the government comes out with his numbers they seem so manipulated these days. How long can that go on? All countries are doing it right now so it seems nothing is real anymore I Strawberry Fields forever

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      One way is by greatly “adjusting” monthly numbers (such as number of unemployed, or numbers laid off, or quantity of goods sold), the month after they are released. If the original monthly amounts are mostly estimates, this often seems to happen at turning points.

    • D. Stevens says:

      I spent $1,200 this weekend on things which a few years ago would’ve cost about $800. GDP is booming, economy is up, and as long as we don’t run out of numbers this can go. My work is having a great year, profits are up, sales up, toughest thing is getting enough raw materials but they still arrive. Until there’s some catalyst causing the supply chain to break I expect things to continue along. Could be years more of BAU here in the core.

  29. Fuzzy math works for BAU….keep it kicking down the road…BRO

    House Republicans unveil energy and climate plan that would boost fossil fuels, hydropower
    PUBLISHED FRI, JUN 3 2022 2:45 PM EDT
    Emma Newburger NBC

    Republicans this week introduced a road map describing how they would mitigate rising gasoline prices and address climate change if the party wins control of the House in November’s midterm elections.
    The plan arises from the energy, climate and conservation task force established last year by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., and involves proposals that run counter to the warnings of climate scientists.
    The strategy provides a broad overview of how the party would address high energy prices but doesn’t set specific greenhouse gas targets.

    The strategy provides a broad overview of how the party would address high energy prices but doesn’t set specific greenhouse gas emission targets. It calls for ramping up fossil fuel production and liquefied natural gas exports, as well as streamlining the permitting process for major infrastructure projects, according to The Washington Post, which first reported the plan.

    The agenda also endorses legislation to expand hydropower, one of the oldest and largest sources of renewable energy, and condemns policies that increase U.S. demand for critical minerals mined from China, which are necessary for electric vehicle and renewable energy production. In a document introducing the road map, House Republicans cited Department of Energy statistics showing that only 3% of the more than 80,000 dams in the U.S. currently generate electricity.

    “If Republicans earn back the House majority in the fall, we will be ready to enact that strategy and ease the suffering of working Americans’ wallets,” Rep. Garret Graves, R-La., the task force chair, wrote in a blog post.

    Climate scientists have warned the world must dramatically reduce fossil fuel production to avoid the worst consequences of climate change. A recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said that limiting global warming to close to 1.5 degrees Celsius will become impossible in the next two decades without immediate and major emissions cuts.

    The GOP has historically opposed measures to tackle the climate crisis. The Trump administration, for example, sought to reverse more than 100 environmental rules it deemed burdensome to the fossil fuel industry.

    This week’s plan takes a vastly different approach to addressing climate change than the Biden administration’s agenda, which involves slashing emissions in half by 2030 and reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.

    More from CNBC Climate:
    Read more about how businesses and consumers are fighting and adapting to climate change:

    The energy in nuclear waste could power the U.S. for 100 years, but the technology was never commercialized

    Russia dominates nuclear power supply chains — and the West needs to prepare now to be independent in the future

    The GOP plans to unveil the six policy areas of their plan, called “Unlock American Resources,” “American Innovation,” “Let America Build,” “Beat China and Russia,” “Conservation with a Purpose” and “Build Resilient Communities,” over the next two months.

    The road map also comes after the House last year passed more than $500 billion in climate investments as part of the president’s Build Back Better Act. That legislation is still stalled in the Senate after opposition from Republicans and Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia. Every Republican in Congress has opposed the funding, contending it would exacerbate the worst inflation the U.S. has seen in decades.

    Environmentalists and congressional Democrats argue the GOP plan is not only insufficient but would worsen the climate crisis.

    “This climate plan sounds like it was concocted by a comic book supervillain,” said Brett Hartl, government affairs director at the Center for Biological Diversity. “Republicans have managed to devise a scheme that would make climate change even more destructive.”

    Rep. Frank Pallone, D-N.J., who is chair of the Energy and Commerce Committee, condemned the plan, saying if House Republicans were serious about addressing climate change, they would have supported legislation Democrats have put forward to lower energy prices and slash carbon pollution.

    “This House Republican proposal simply recycles old, bad ideas that amount to little more than handouts to oil companies,” Pallone said in a statement. “It is a stunning display of insincerity to admit climate change is a problem but to propose policies that make it worse.”

    Sounds reasonable to BAU….burn moar COAL

    How OLD and what condition are those so called dams and how many can really produce electricity?
    Doubt little if any…Honey, I found the PORK..MORONS

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      It looks like the Chinese mother has a moderately good solution for child care, from her perspective. The small child stays in a cage under her cart for selling the food she makes, while she has customers. He is allowed to play outside, when no customers are around.

      • Dennis L. says:

        No sarcasm, this seems like a better solution than childcare; the child is part of his parent’s world.

        I have never seen the reason for childcare other than to boost GDP which gives “skim” for others.

        Dennis L.

        • kulmthestatusquo
          kulmthestatusquo says:

          In my childhood, parents running a shop and bringing their children to there were common.

          The children learnt the business from when they were children. Very good education, both of the work and the human world.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        ya but when the child grows up he’ll be like norm and mike… there are long term downsides to these solutions

        Notice how mike will do anything to be able to get around — freedom is important when you are raised in a cage

  30. Fast Eddy says:

    Fake – real? https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/36246

    Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche and Dr. Paul Elias Alexander discuss the damage by the COVID vaccines in subverting the innate immune system in children; Geert provides informative background on vaccines

    https://palexander.substack.com/p/dr-geert-vanden-bossche-and-dr-paul?s=r

  31. Fast Eddy says:

    Once more https://t.me/robinmg/20170

    Lights camera action! Take 68 of Ukraine Fake War

  32. Fast Eddy says:

    “Vaccidents” keep spiking all around the world—and “our free press” keeps on denying that the jabs have anything to do with it

    https://markcrispinmiller.substack.com/p/vaccidents-keep-spiking-all-around?s=r

  33. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth says he does not expect another oil refinery to be built in the U.S. ever again, pointing to decades of federal government policies as the reason why.

    “There hasn’t been a refinery built in this country since the 1970s,” Wirth said at Bernstein’s Strategic Decisions Conference this week, when asked about the prospect of new capacity being added in the Gulf of Mexico. “I personally don’t believe there will be a new petroleum refinery ever built in this country again..
    Capacity is added by de-bottlenecking existing units by investing in existing refineries,” he explained. “But what we’ve seen over the last two years are shutdowns. We’ve seen refineries closed. We’ve seen units come down. We’ve seen refineries being repurposed to become bio refineries. And we live in a world where the policy, the stated policy of the U.S. government is to reduce demand for the products that refiners produce.”

    Wirth went on to list examples such as the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for fuel efficiency in vehicles that Congress first enacted in the 70s, the Renewable Fuel Standard created in 2005 requiring a certain amount of biofuels like Ethanol to replace petroleum-based fuels, and electric vehicle tax subsidies.

    “At every level of the system, the policy of our government is to reduce demand, and so it’s very hard in a business where investments have a payout period of a decade or more,” Wirth said. “And the stated policy of the government for a long time has been to reduce demand for your products.”
    To put things in perspective, Wirth asked rhetorically, “How do you go to your board, how do you go to your shareholders and say ‘we’re going to spend billions of dollars on new capacity in a market that is, you know, the policy is taking you in the other direction.”

    Fox 🦊 News

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The first “peak oil” in the US occurred in 1970. It is perfectly reasonable that the US stopped building new refineries after that date. Soon after that date the US started shifting manufacturing out of the United States, and started working on saving in the use of oil in other ways.

      The general pattern with respect to US refineries seems to be that many small, less complex refineries (couldn’t handle cracking and sulfur removal) have closed, while the bigger refiners have expanded in capacity and added more complex processes, including cracking of long molecules and removal of sulfur.

      Total US refinery capacity was growing between 1993 and 2020. Some refinery capacity was closed in 2020 and 2021. Some capacity has been permanently closed.

      These are links to some EIA charts:

      Number of operable refineries, as of January 1 or each year:

      https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=8_NA_8O0_NUS_C&f=A

      “Complex” refinery capacity, as of January 1 of each year:

      https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=8_NA_8CD0_NUS_5&f=A

      Operable capacity per steam day, as of January 1 of each year:

      https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=8_NA_8D0_NUS_5&f=A

      Weekly operable crude oil distillation capacity:

      https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WOCLEUS2&f=W

      This last report shows a shift toward removing refinery capacity that began in August 2020, and continues even at recent dates.

    • MM says:

      For the refineries goes the same as for the auto industry:
      They knew for 50 years that their businessmodel has an end date be it due to climate or due to resources. Currently they ,ake a bet on Fracking and hope they can stay in business with adequate cash “flow”.

      Somewhat they managed because they stopped heavy investment (that is no longer possible to argue for with the shareholders) but they tried to run their business as long as they could. Their communication strategy now is three fold:
      – artificially increase prices by shortage or speculation or just because we can
      thus
      – create a sense of urgency and blame it on someone else (government)
      – make that someone else look bad and try to change political climate back in their favour and or demand subsidies (LNG ports, pipelines, eco law removal etc.)

      Simply because they have not learned something other than:

      Drillers drill (Baby).

      … I understand that there never was any other “communication strategy” available in the first place.

  34. “Elon Musk is considering a hiring freeze and job cuts of up to 10% of staff at Tesla because he has a “super bad feeling” about the state of the economy, according to an internal email seen by Reuters.

    “Tesla currently has about 5,000 job openings advertised worldwide, and 100,000 employees. The email was sent to Tesla executives late on Thursday with the subject line “pause all hiring worldwide”…”

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jun/03/elon-musk-job-cuts-tesla-super-bad-feeling-economy-hiring-freeze

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The 10% cutback seems to relate to salaried staff only, rather than hourly workers. In the past year, there had been a big increase in salaried staff, according to some reports.

  35. “Fuel Crunch Risks Factory Closures in Pakistan’s Business Center.

    “Factories in the commercial capital of Pakistan are warning that they may need to shut production due to sky-high energy costs, another blow to the nation’s fledgling economy.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-02/fuel-crunch-risks-factory-closures-in-pakistan-s-business-center

    • “Power cuts dampen Sri Lanka rubber product exports despite higher global demand…

      ““Rubber industry’s order books are full and we are being offered more orders,” Rohan Masakorala, the Secretary-General of SLAMERP told Economy Next. “But the problem is we can’t take because there’s not continuous power and energy.””

      https://economynext.com/power-cuts-dampen-sri-lanka-rubber-product-exports-despite-higher-global-demand-slamerp-95128/

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        This is one of Sri Lanka’s big problems:

        “The raw rubber needs a lot of energy to make value added products at high heating temperatures.”

    • MM says:

      There are two ways of shutting down:
      first a temporay shutdown maintaining assets
      second a complete deindustrialisation as in Easern Europe

      If we manage to travel a bumpy road and reorganise at a somewhat lower energy society, any assets from varaint a might be helpful.
      In the case of a domination strategy being applied for some population centres as per P Zeihan, we might move to variant b with very restricted freedom left and a lot of destruction.
      I think even “them” are not yet decided on that outcome…

      • Xabier says:

        They are feeling their way, rather than imposing a Plan set in stone.

        Although one doubtful point has been decided: we will clearly take almost anything they impose, and not rebel in any significant fashion.

        In consequence, one can see they are being much less cautious in revealing plans.

        • MM says:

          yeah, currently build back better is in the cards still as in green or in FF.

          I bet it will get interesting when cards will have to be dropped.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        My guess is that if Western Europe is on the edge of collapse, Eastern Europe will head in that direction as well. I would expect that quite a bit of Eastern Europe’s output directly or indirectly goes to Western Europe. Without the demand from Western Europe (without the cheap oil, coal and gas), Eastern Europe cannot continue at anywhere near its current level.

        • Xabier says:

          One can only have a deep sense of foreboding here on the far-western fringe of Eurasia, Gail.

          What is more alarming even than the inevitable unfolding of Collapse – which is systemic and ineluctable – is that influential elements we all know seem to be doing their best to accelerate it thinking, perhaps, that they can control the process and emerge triumphant……

  36. “Shortage of oil refineries haunts Africa as fuel prices rocket.

    “A shortage of oil refineries across sub-Saharan Africa coupled with soaring crude prices because of the war in Ukraine has left countries dangerously short of fuel supplies, disrupting airlines and causing queues at filling stations.”

    https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/shortage-oil-refineries-haunts-africa-fuel-prices-rocket-2022-06-01/

    • “Niger has banned refined fuel exports with immediate effect… in a further step to secure local supplies after it earlier limited exports…

      “The West African country reduced refined fuel exports by 75% in early May to protect and boost national stocks amid a global rise in fuel prices caused by the war in Ukraine.”

      https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/world/africa/2022-06-01-niger-bans-exports-of-refined-fuel-amid-growing-shortages/

      • “Sudan staggers under weight of Africa’s biggest fuel spike.

        “This time a year ago, even amid widespread fuel shortages, one litre of petrol cost 290 Sudanese pounds (R9.85) . Today, that same litre costs motorists 672 Sudanese pounds, (R22.82 ), an increase of 132%.”

        https://mg.co.za/africa/2022-05-31-sudan-staggers-under-weight-of-africas-biggest-fuel-spike/

        • “One person was killed in Guinea’s capital late on Wednesday during protests over fuel price hikes, in the most serious unrest since a military junta took power last year.

          “Gunfire rang out in Conakry overnight as people barricaded streets and set tyres alight in protest over a 20% increase in the price of gasoline…”

          https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/one-killed-first-major-protest-under-guinea-junta-2022-06-02/

          • as i keep saying

            people will start to kill each other as their fuel supplies run out

            its not complicated

            • eddy

              others are saying:–cut the vax crap

              people are getting embarrassed on your behalf—(human nature is like that for some reason)

              You have your reasons : — nowhere else left to ‘score’ except on the vax pitch—so you keep playing on and on, oblivious to the fact that the crowd has gone home and the teams have left just you to kicking into an empty goal—‘scoring’ in your fixated mind,

              with

              caps and morons,

              morons and caps.

              (morons spelled correctly btw)

              jumping up and down–demanding attention that you know you are entitled to–as eddy the naked emperor, demanding ‘respect.’—screaming unsubtle innuendo to boost the confidence of ‘self’ at the expense of ‘others’.

              Respect is earned eddy–it cannot be demanded. No—no one wants to be like you. Trust me.

              Or eddy the 5 year old, desperate to get noticed by grownups–so keeps repeating words freshly learned–not realising there’s a world of different vocabulary out there.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              Actually, the vaccine situation is important, whether you are interested in it or not.

              Some people have a different idea of entertainment than others. This site can be pretty depressing, without some silliness.

            • as entertainment it is excellent

              reading personality (mine own included) provides endless insight

            • Fast Eddy says:

              RE- Gurgi-TATOR

            • Fast Eddy says:

              norm thinks the injections are not connected to the end of cheap oil

              hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

              A moderately intelligent 9 year old could be made to understand the connection

            • junior–aged 5, comes home after his first day at school

              mommy mommy he shouts bouncing into the house

              mommy I learned a new word at school today

              What is it dear–tell me?

              f789 says junior looking very pleased with himself

              f789!!!!!!–where did you learn to say words like f789?

              One of the older boys told me to f789 off mommy

              right says mom—no more school for you.

              it’s home schooling for you from now on

              so junior spends the next 15 years at home, totally unaware of the ways of the big bad world, totally fed by self obsession because no other measure exists except the mirror.—and mirrors never lie.

              untutored in the subtleties of the English language, convinced the the world has conspired against him, raging at perceived slights and insults, applauded by a captive adoring audience, , knowing that success in any encounter must be measured by ‘scores’–not knowing that there are ‘other ways’ than inflatable egos matched by inflatable people.

              wondering why his score diminishes as the years roll on…and the faces of his audience never change.

              certain of ‘right’ because no one was ever around to tell him ‘wrong’

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Is there a punchline to this norm? Cuz if that’s it the tomatoes are gonna fly in your direction.

              Ok – let’s get back to business — why inject a baby?

              why
              wī, hwī
              adverb
              For what purpose, reason, or cause; with what intention, justification, or motive.

            • but eddy

              whatever made you think that little story involved you?

              no mention of FE was made at all. I’m supposed to be a hopeless regurgitating writer–remember?

              obsession with self again–not good, not good at all.

              I keep trying to warn you about it–must ruin your RL.

              Sorry about the air bnb problem.

              Why do i have a vision that staying there would involve forced listening to Vogon poetry.?

            • i see we’ve had some more crisis actors eddy, this time in Nigeria

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              Perhaps that is part of the equation, but it is not all of it.

            • perhaps put it more politely, that they will be indifferent to the problems of others–depending on how far away they are

            • Hubbs says:

              The situation is an analogous subset to the electrified cage experiment with one vs two rats. When a random shock is delivered to one rat in a cage all it can do is curl up in the corner and wait for the next shock and just endure. In contrast when two rats are placed in the cage they will suddenly fight to the death, seemingly thinking that the other rat is causing the shock.

              I have often thought that all of this gun control business is nothing more than a pure Psy-op. Every time a wave of gun control measures is floated by the politicians, there is a spike in arms and ammo purchases. Like the weapons cache that was left in Afghanistan and now being delivered to Ukraine, The ultimate intent is to create a diaspora of arms which will destabilize countries even more in the event of Civil War. The MIC is simply a willing accomplice, , a hitman that is paid generously through the tax dollars to make these weapons.

              Meanwhile, the military is becoming so emasculated so that it is no longer capable of being a controlling force in the event of martial law etc. Like the officers at the Uvalde Texas shooting who stood down for an hour, the army will stand down and be looking for “time outs” and “safe places” rather than face the anger of an armed-to-the-teeth civilian population. Because the population now is so well armed, they will become like the two rats kill each other off. The army will be incapable of doing anything to stop this mass killing. This I suspect quite cynically is the Globalists’ real objective. The pro gunners keep bloovating about how they need their guns to protect against government Tierney, but this will not be the real fight I suspect.The Globalists know ultimately that once the food and energy run out, this will be the equivalent of an electric shock and the people will turn on each other blindly and savagely, not the “tyrannical government.” It will devolve into a fight for the remaining resources.

            • my thinking almost exactly Hubbs

              apart from the globalists part

              post ‘surplus energy’, no large group will be able to hold itself together. There is no ‘globalist objective’—or elders, or elite.

              post energy surplus, we lose 300 years–maybe a lot more–of human progress

            • Kowalainen says:

              “This site can be pretty depressing, without some silliness.”

              Good thing that the internet provides an enormous selection of hopiates, dreamiums, rainbows and unicorns for the self entitled and spoilt princesses of IC.

              There’s also the possibility of flicking the scroll wheel/screen if some comment is particularly distressing. It’s really not that difficult to enter the safe space of delusion.

              Yes. No drama; just back to la-la land of cognitive dissonance and compartmentalizations.

              YOLO!
              MOAR!

              And then it arrives as a truck load of dumb:

              WORRY ABOUT THE PROGENY WHEN SHTF!

              Ah, the irony.
              (No hate, just saying what’s on everybody’s mind)

              Innit so?
              🤣👍👍

            • Fast Eddy says:

              norm is miffed at being the constant target of the silliness…

              Can’t help it — I always picture norm in his diapers with a soother … perhaps a wife beater singlet… and a bit of slobber on his chin as he types a furious rebuttal to Fast Eddy thinking ‘you think you’re so good FE just wait till your fans see this post!!!’

              And it falls flat… again.

              Fast Eddy could tie both HIS hands behind HIS back and still whip norm…. to be honest most of the time Fast Eddy isn’t even trying… HE wants to keep norm around … so best to only go at 10% tilt…

              norm – why vax the kids?

          • MM says:

            Guinea some years ago had a coup about offshore drilling licenses.
            As of P Zeihan Guinea is a trump card for oil supply to the EU.

            As just stated today: Mr. Zeihan does not bode well with the export land model.

            Ok, maybe after a large chunk of the popuation has ripped itself to pieces. Question remains, how you can maintain some sort of an oil export there….

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Every poor oil importing country staggers under higher oil prices.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            the situation with regards to food inflation is far worse and widespread than pre GFC… yet there are so few riots…

            There should be famine conditions across the 3rd world by now.

            Also Shanghai was we are told locked down for months with container ships piled up waiting to load/offload… why are there not huge shortages of materials? We are told the JIT supply chain is a finely tuned machine… just in time = just in time… so if you delay many shipments for weeks or months surely Costco shelves go bare….

            It does not compute.

      • MM says:

        The Export Land Model does not match with the view of P Zeihan.

      • this is what the tail end of the energy cliff looks like.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      China can refine oil cheaply. It is hard to compete with China.

  37. MG says:

    Slovakia 1982: the nuclear power plants just going online, the population was lower and younger, the life was fantastic

    https://youtu.be/eLDlKhAcuHo

    • drb753
      drb753 says:

      We all agree that communism had a lot to offer to the people. That, and plentiful supplies of cheap FF from Russia, which subsidized the entire bloc periphery to an absurd (and unsustainable) degree.

      • MM says:

        High first and very low later.
        You can see it in the deindustrialized countries of Eastern Europe. They had quite a substantial industrial base but never managed to “recover” from the shock therapy. They did not even scrap many of the ruins until today.

        • drb753
          drb753 says:

          agree on all counts. It is painful to watch, but it takes decades for people to realize what they got themselves into. In my home town, Bologna, it took some 150 years to switch from totally pro-catholic church, to anti-clerical once they came under direct control of the Church. To the local culture’s credit, they then stayed anti-Vatican for centuries. Now there is no culture to speak of, as the Bolognese have left, and the city is inhabited by third world people.

          Also, a friend in Russia who was worried about his economic future (his business depended heavily on westerners visiting) got a stroke of luck when a small factory he co-owned started producing steel rods, formed into bucket handles, to the tune of 80 tons a month. The handles used to come from Slovakia, but Slovakia decided that punishing Russia is more important than its own economic future.

          • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
            Gail Tverberg says:

            Strange things that people can be convinced of.

            • MG says:

              A quote from the abovementioned article:

              “Slovakia’s only domestic refiner, Slovnaft, runs on Russian oil.

              It said on Thursday the sanctions would have a severe impact on its production and create market shortages in fuels in the region as it could not make technological changes in time.”

            • Boy, didn’t Slovakia learn anything from WWII …not to go against the Russians!
              Good luck with that..no oil…no economy

      • Xabier says:

        Yes, Communism was a kind of Paradise for the average person of little or no talent, and with no spine or conscience.

        And they constitute the majority everywhere: mediocre humans, and there is no blame in that.

        That type now long for UBI in the West…..

        • drb753
          drb753 says:

          A lot of people got their entry into the economy through Stalin and Lenin, after 30 generations of serfdom or pseudo-serfdom (sharecropping). And I think their spine proved quite excellent when they found tanks at their doorstep 81 years ago. You are just expressing your Kulak-like origin. It is understandable, though. Everyone talks for their class of origin, and only for that.

          • Xabier says:

            Lighten up, drb, that was not a wholly serious comment.

            Yes, the poor devils got their chance: to live in yet another nightmare system after that of the Tsars.

            On the whole that rather cancels out its definite virtues – which the Russians I know like to bang on about – just as the crimes of the Davos WEF- ers cancel out their often interesting environmental plans.

            ‘Same saddle different rider’, as the Persians say.

            All a terrible waste of lives, hopes, potential, talents and…….. blood. Like most of history in this circle of Hell we inhabit.

            But how dare you call me a ‘kulak’!

            My ancestor Don Pedro paid good money for a nice coat of arms in 1530 or whenever it was, which I think of every time I dust it hanging over the lavatory……

            • drb753
              drb753 says:

              As a matter of fact I watched the process unfold in Emilia Romagna, where I was born. Sharecroppers and mondine (look them up, my grandma was one) with everlasting loyalty to the party. Then I started meeting Russians who had gone through the same process, or at least their fathers and grandfathers. I can understand that the Emilia model was superior. A more cohesive society, ethnically speaking, and an area that had started industrializing in the 1400 and was ready for economic expansion. Bologna was, for a few decades, one of the places with the highest quality of life in the world. We only had the communist party to thank.

              still here where I am now, 75+% of the people do think well of Stalin. His was an essentially socialdemocratic economic model, where cooperatives (which were privately owned) were encouraged. It did provide a decade of economic growth (together with rapidly improving energy supplies) unmatched ever since, in Eurasia or the West. It really is not difficult to understand why they still like him.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I guess if one doesn’t end up in one of these https://www.britannica.com/topic/The-Gulag-Archipelago they feel such relief that they actually embrace alternative…

              Then of course you have to blind them to the fact that the Lifestyles of the Average and Not Even Famous in the west….you mass psychosis them into not seeing it … but when some of them travel to the west and they see it — many of them defect….

              Communism is such an awesome system… for the weak and lazy… it appeals to the dullards because it gives them the opportunity to rise to the very top

              As we can see — it is a very successful system… there are thriving communist states across the world…

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Word association ..

            Communist >>> delusional, feeble-minded, Hyper MOREON, lazy, petty, lover of gulags, old potatoes, beetroot, cellar, drudgery, poverty, vodka, alcoholic, sadness, despair, resentful, rationing, Animal Farm….

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Everyone can vote. What could go wrong?

        • I thought about joining a communistic group at one time but the Trappist Monastery of Gethsemane in Bardsrown Town, Kentucky did not like the fact I’m not a morning 🌄 person and needed a fresh razor for a shave….
          Still a memorable experience, once the home of Thomas Merton and some of the best cheese and fruit cake…
          This communism can’t be too bad…these guys live to be a very advanced age and in no rush to the Pearly Gates….

          For those looking for a retreat or visit or some great gifts via email mail here is their website

          https://monks.org/

          • Fast Eddy says:

            I bet Monkey Pox is rampant in that place… I’d avoid joining … I bet you the novices have to perform some rather vile acts on the senior monks…. after awhile it all no doubt seems ‘normal’…

            • Nope, sorry Eddie to disappoint…you would lose your bet…
              The funny thing is when Merton became a novice the place was like the middle ages..
              Very little in modern comforts..straw beds, lack of heat and electricity and such.
              The two recruitment periods were after World War II and the Vietnam War…
              After Merton’s best selling books the place could upgrade to BAU living standards.
              Merton once quipped jokingly they had the lifestyle of millionaires!

              Now, I was there a long long time ago..
              But still buy their fudge and fruitcake.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          For back stabbing, incompetent, petty, low IQ people — communism has indeed been a delight… the system rewards these traits and such people rise to the very top.

          In the real world they’d be pizza delivery boys… who believe that they’ve been treated unfairly and should be at the very least regional managers.

    • Xabier says:

      My customer Barry Humphries (aka Dame Edna Everage) also told me that the orgies in Prague in the Communist days were delightful – clearly the descent has been precipitous in your part of the world.

      Perhaps mass suicide is the answer?

      But wait! The WEF are currently organising something along those lines I see……

      • MM says:

        You could argue that the systems duality in by itself “created” a happy life on both sides. Or at least a shiny facade of it.
        I would add that both had less virtue signalling then….

        No more duality and the true misery (of man) comes to light.

  38. “Record Chinese wheat prices raise risk of pricier noodles.

    “Chinese consumers are likely to have to pay more for food staples like noodles and bread this year, as record wheat prices in the world’s top consumer of the grain get passed on to food makers, traders and analysts said.”

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/record-chinese-wheat-prices-raise-risk-pricier-noodles-2022-06-02/

    • “China’s Home Sales Slump Persisted in May During Lockdowns.

      “The 100 biggest real estate developers saw new-home sales plummet 59% in May from a year earlier, according to preliminary data from China Real Estate Information Corp. The drop matched April’s decline as the biggest this year.”

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-31/china-s-home-sales-slump-persisted-in-may-during-lockdowns

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Not a big surprise! The economy was not doing very well before the lockdowns, with the big drop in new home sales.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Northern China consumers eat a whole lot of wheat. Higher prices leave less for other expenditures.

  39. “Estonian government collapses as prime minister hits out at coalition partner…

    “At the request of Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, Alar Karis, the president, on Friday dismissed all seven ministers from the Centre party, which used to have formal ties with Russian president Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/0b4e14cc-f628-4835-a577-31b7697ace52

    • “Finland woos Ankara with hint it could buy Turkish drones…

      “Pekka Haavisto, Finland’s foreign minister, said on Wednesday that the Nordic country and Turkey could do arms deals with each other if both were members of the western alliance.”

      https://www.ft.com/content/cf154d42-d324-40a9-8478-9f59bee053b5

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The conflict with Russia seems to spread.

  40. “UK cucumber and pepper crops face energy and labour crunch…

    “The UK will harvest less than half of its normal quantity of cucumbers and sweet peppers this year after many glasshouse growers opted not to plant them in the face of surging energy costs and labour shortages, according to the trade group for the main growing region.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/f2d7494d-429e-49e1-aa37-97dc9eb1ecbc

    • “Eat grass to solve Britain’s food crisis, scientists say.

      “People could soon be eating grass instead of steaks and cheese as British scientists develop ways to turn pasture into food. Researchers say grass could be a ‘silver bullet’ for UK food supplies…”

      https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/06/01/eat-grass-solve-britains-food-crisis-scientists-say/

      • nlowrie
        neil says:

        I have a simpler solution. Cow eats grass. Man eats cow

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Cows eat a whole lot of grass, relative to the meat created.

      • Xabier says:

        Hmm. Isn’t eating beef or lamb, and cheese, in fact eating grass at one remove?

        There is some entertainment in the sheer lunacy of this: not much, but just a little.

        I took a look at the ‘Plant-based Food’ cabinet in the supermarket: generally highly-processed mush masquerading as meat.

        Rather as poor old Norman, who will never answer a direct and serious question, masquerades as a predictive thinker and ‘wordsmith’, whatever that is……

        • poor-ish and old–agreed Xabier

          but 1 0 years ago–i published my predictions–

          11 years ago i predicted a fascist POTUS for the USA for 2016.

          5 years ago I predicted Putin’s coming aggression in Europe

          also the economic collapse of the EU (not yet happened but well under way I think)

          several times i have predicted mid 2020s for economic chaos

          any thoughts there Xabier?— how’s the masquerade holding up so far?

          serious questions get answers, repetitive rants from 5 year olds do not.

          as i’ve pointed out–no matter what the activity, you are only as good as other people say you are.

          • Dennis L. says:

            Could you expand your ideas on chaos in the mid 2020s?

            Dennis L.

            • insufficient surplus energy to support our anticipated lifestyle.

              that’s as specific as one can get because (say) my reaction to unsettled seriously threatened circumstance would be totally different to yours.

              now multiply that reality by 7.5 bn–and deduct a few aboriginal tribes maybe, to whom it wouldn’t matter. (the meek shall inherit the earth?)

              i expect food to be in the shops tomorrow, and petrol available to fill up my car.

              Why? because i’ve never known differently. The above happens through cheap ‘surplus’ energy—not energy per se.

              right now we are seeing energy become too expensive for everyday use–food, housing, fuel–the crunch point would seem to be mid 2020s–no one can say exactly. It has been the source of conflict since the 1930s.
              That was the conclusion i came to 10 years ago. No politician economist or prayer can alter it. We are nearing the edge of our petri dish.

              rampant capitalism impoverishes the world itself–that was also something i figured out back then.
              Before then i hadn’t given it much thought.
              I’m as much a capitalist as anyone else.

              And Covid?–covid is part of the Earth’s defence mechanism against us. We trespassed on too much animal territory–they have rights too.

              It wasn’t ‘unleashed by the Chinese’

            • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
              Ed says:

              “nearing the edge of our petri dish”

              Norman, I like this phrase

          • Norm, you seem to have a better track record than Yogi Bear, I mean Berra!

            It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future’” is attributed to a baseball-playing philosopher, Yogi Berra, followed by “… never make predictions – especially about the future” by Samuel Goldwyn.Jul 15, 2007

            Norms prediction on the future, maybe…
            Yogi Berra is credited for once saying that the future ain’t what it used to be. What a perfect way to describe what is coming: a complete change in the way we think about the future. Our journey to the future begins with a look back.Jul 14, 2017

            I predict we will all soon die! Soon is what you make it!

            • the energy to drive our future is going to be severely depleted.

              that will mean one ‘future’ for me…but a different one for you.

              I’m not ‘predicting’ any future in a real sense, only how your living is going to be changed.

              I ‘predicted’ a fascist POTUS in 2011, that prediction formed itself out of the loonytoon state of US politics, that would reform itself after Obama had gone. A simple form of rebound politics if you like. Anyone could figure out what was likely to happen.

              The average voter thinks that voting is going to get the ‘lifestyle’ he thinks he deserves.
              Which is of course nonsense.

              There was no way i could have figured ‘Trump’–he was clearly off his head.

              come 2024, Biden will not have re-created the ‘American Dream’–but the average American has no idea what did. Again–he thinks it can be voted for.

              It can’t. (Same applies in UK/Europe.) Hence Brexit.

              There isn’t enough surplus energy to sustain the ‘lifestyle’ desired or demanded. It isn’t coming back.
              The opposite is therefore certain. We are at the end of a 300 year anomaly in human history.

              Jobs/wages are created when one energy form is converted into another. If energy becomes too expensive for this function to be carried out, collapse is certain.

              This is what we are seeing happening right now.

              ********
              Energy availabilty (at a price we can all afford) is falling behind living costs.

              But our existence depends on affordable energy availability being ahead of living costs,

              **********

              simple huh?

              my mid 2020s thing might be totally wrong of course–i hope it is.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          norm >>> wordsmith…. hahahahahahahaha

          norm also sees himself as witty and entertaining… hahahahahahahahaha…

          Well he is entertaining… he’s the butt of so many excellent jokes… norm inspires ridicule

          norm – why inject the babies… why norm?

          • Eddy

            one of the advantages of almost a century of life, is that one knows what one is good at, and by definition, accepts that which one hopeless at.

            And accepts that pretence is a waste of time—either way.

            by this age, the opinion of others, good or bad, is no longer relevant.
            Self knowledge is everything.

            but of course, that same overlong shelf life also allows accurate judgements of the skills of others, particularly when they are expressed with the ever-increasing waves of self obsessive hysteria of an over-active 5 year old.

            Who demands to be treated as an adult.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              It’s a good thing you can write Rayburn manuals… cuz if you were to pursue a career in comedy … you’d be eating a lot of rotten tomato soup… hahahahahahahahahaa

            • this will create a chortle focus for you eddy

              but i was once asked in a forum such as this–but with a different thread line–if i was a scriptwriter for ‘Friends’.

              i do so enjoy tossing you bones to chew at

              the old pavlovs dogs thing–i love it

              just sooooooo predictable

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Hmmm… you mean that juvenile Tee Vee show Friends… with the laugh track?

              it did not occur to you that you were being insulted?

              hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      People wouldn’t be able to afford the cucumbers and sweet peppers, if they were planted.

  41. well

    i have offered to help with that ‘other problem’ eddy

    to help you raise your ‘score’—i’m sure that would be appreciated

    the very least i can do

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Why inject babies?

      • ah yes

        the ‘have you stopped beating your wife’ question

        the only one available when the empty vessel stops rattling

        • nikoB says:

          As usual Norm. you don’t answer that pertinent question. Why should we inject children? Do you believe the vaxxs are safe for them, that vaxx reactions like myocarditis isn’t happening?

          • how many times does it bear repeating–i offer no ‘certainties’ on that which i (or you) know nothing about

            But

            Covid wasn’t invented by the chinese to kill us all off (or the elders/elite/Bill Gates)

            there is no ‘plot’ to decimate the world’s population

            metal is not ‘sticking to skin of injected ‘victims’

            mad doctors are not stalking my kids

            Gates isn’t tracking you via his 5G masts

            all the above–and much more has been posted on OFW. almost all of it BS. Reaction to it is basic common sense.

            and Ive been castigated by making rude noises to all of it.

            ******

            Then comes the cry of the terminal conspiraholic:—Ah but can you PROVE it isnt so.

            No–I can’t

            Ah says the conspironut–then it must be true.
            whats true—is that the conspironut believes everything he sees online (provided it dovetails into his fantasy of the moment.

            it isn’t possible to disprove a negative–this is how conspiromania takes hold. (think about that)

            I cannot PROVE there isn’t a chocolate teapot orbiting Mars either.

            Not that any of this will dent your ‘certainties’–so best of luck.

            *******

            What is certain is that our planet is being looted for maximum profit. It will not end well. (As we are seeing right now)

            What is also certain, is that $250m (or only $250) in the bank will be worth zilch when the energy rug is pulled from under it.

            Anyone with only an ounce of brain tissue can figure that out.
            Try to give some rational thought to that, instead of worrying about Bill Gates trying to kill you.

            Because that is ‘reality’.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              There is no plot. It is simply the way the self-organizing system works, unfortunately.

            • but you will never convince the conspironuts of that

  42. i always know what your answer will be

    when presented with your fantasies of abuse to anyone who has the temerity to disagree with you

    getting monotonous—but the clanging of the empty vessel reassures you are here

    not bothering anyone in RL

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Explain to me why babies are next to go in front of the injection squad

      • yup

        just like i said–predictable answer.

        i have no doubt that you are just as predictable when totting up your score card

        which is why the number is low or non existent.

        well–my offer still stands

        (even if nothing else does)

        • Xabier says:

          On the contrary, Norman, FE’s question is both honest and pertinent: your repeated evasion shows that you are intellectually dishonest and bankrupt, and your oft-repeated ‘concern’ for your great-grandchildren is just a pose.

          • well Xabier

            At least I don’t ‘pose’ a threat to kids in the vicinity by asserting that I must go out on a mission to ‘save’ them, no matter what. And if I didn’t ‘I would never be able to forgive myself’

            the classic mindset of the ‘saviour’ of any stripe. It is likely to get you punched or arrested. Unless its safely kept as a fantasy–like your mentor. I suspect that is the case.

            As I said of you months ago: Avoid.
            Seems I was right.
            Students of Dr Mengele are not stalking anybodys kids.

            You, Eddy and a few other disciples put out such outlandish comments, that even answering them would lend them credibility—this is why I ignore them.
            With eddys mindset, any answer would open up a further vomit of more ‘questions’–equally nonsensenical.

            I dont know enough about covid to offer an opinion either way. I just point out obvious nonsenses. (metal sticking to skin–Gate’s 5g masts?–Great stuff wouldnt you say?)

            Remember these ‘truths’ emanate from the same source as moonloonery, WTC, ‘crisis actors’ getting dead in schools, Ukraine war isn’t happening, and all the rest of the claptrap. If you choose to go along with all that—that’s your problem.

            Concern for ggrandkids is not the same as being able to do anything about it.The last thing young families need is a g grand-dad bellyaching about their future and health–they just get on with it.

            If you knew anything about ‘families’ you would know that.

            • nikoB says:

              Again in your reply Norm you go straight to the most far fetched ideas relating to vaxxs not the actual question eddie is asking. That way you can dismiss the question.

            • far fetched??

              that kids are being stalked by needle wielding doctors?

              That has been posted on OFW

              so it must be true

              Or is truth selective–like ‘alternative facts?–you read only that which you choose to read.?

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Question … why inject babies?

            • Xabier says:

              It is quite simple Norman.

              I do not in any way regard myself as a ‘saviour’ as you so inaccurately put it: but I have a conscience and I am not a sneering coward like you.

              And where does your odd idea that I ‘know nothing about families’ come from? I have a very large and close one.

            • you said, something like

              ”if i didn’t try to save them from being jabbed , and something bad happened, i would never forgive myself.”

              families, however close, do not want old gits telling them what to do

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Oh – so the parents of the kids told you to f789 off when you tried to drag their kids to the injection centre?

              Recall how mike had quite the battle with his daughter who didn’t want the shot … but mike insisted..

              Hey mike — can you update us on that…

            • you said something like:

              if i did not save (them) from being jabbed, and something awful happened, i would never forgive myself.

              families, however close do not want old gits telling them what to do—they may react with polite attention–but they really dont.

              informing strangers of the same thing would be physically dangerous.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              We interrupt Dancing with MOREONS to bring you this live feed of Nuremberg 2.0 where norm has been accused of mass child murder….

              norm did you or did you not offer to drive the grandkids and any kids within a 5km radius of your home to the injection centre? Did you not raise funds online to pay for the hiring of a 30 seat bus that you used to pick up and drive children as young as 2 – to the injection centre?

              norm did you or did you not entice the children by playing this on loud speakers mounted on the roof of the bus? https://www.tiktok.com/@rachel_youvegot2bkidding/video/7052092917552516398

            • Fast Eddy says:

              You express concerns for your progeny… I assume you would not like to see them maimed or dead…

              So why do you support injections for children?

              The injections do not stop them from getting covid and infecting you (I can see how that would be a concern when one has 4 shots in his arm and a ruined immune system … but they can still pass it to you norm)…..

              And we know that healthy kids do not experience severe covid symptoms — they do not die.

              Explain to us (everyone is waiting…) the rationale for your support of injections for all.

        • Janice says:

          Norman Pagett said: “families, however close do not want old gits telling them what to do—they may react with polite attention–but they really dont.”
          —————-
          Granddaddy, you’re becoming a major disappointment. Why don’t you simply answer FE’s question without those ridiculous excuses?

          And maybe if you had actually lived even a little bit of what you preach, you would have made more of an impact on those around you.

          Ecologist Pentti Linkola was born in December 1932, quite near your time, and walked the talk. His two daughters, born in 1961 and 1963, went on to teach his message and, most importantly, refrained from having children.

          Since most parents follow only the mainstream’s lifestyle script, their children go on unthinkingly plodding along.

          • Xabier says:

            In this instance though, it’s not really about ‘telling people what to do’, but passing on important, accurate, information from scientists, doctors and others with integrity.

            And this is what I have done with my close friends and family, merely drawn their attention to what the MSM have buried.

            I cannot see that a human being with a conscience and heart can try to do any less.

            I might sometimes wish that a steamroller would squish the screaming kids on the village green outside my window, but I can’t bear to think of them being poisoned and crippled by monsters!

            Unfortunately, I can only approach those parents with whom I have close ties.

          • lol

            you are even more amusing than eddy–I don’t think I’ve seen your same before on OFW? I don’t know how much you’ve read on this thread. It goes back a long way.

            exactly how is a parent supposed to teach kids about what to do–or not to do,…they move out to lead their own lives,

            girls particularly, are independent women much after the age of 16. Some have kids–some don’t. Some of their kids will have offspring, and so on. Imagining that I could influence a 3rd generation shows a naivety of epic proportions,
            Listing someone I’ve never heard of as an ‘object lesson in child rearing’, is fatuous. Other than keeping girls locked a tower somewhere, they will follow their inclinations. For good or ill. My lot have been lucky so far.

            Powerful stuff.

            Because of that–I pin the same (fatuous) label on any other comment you might make. (prove me wrong)

            And yes–I think i have lived much of what I ‘preach”—my comments in certain respects draw on RL.

            I try to use the English language in ways it is meant to be used—literally every word has its place. If you don’t know that I suggest you brush up on it all.

            I do not fly into a faux-rage if anyone disagrees with me–or indulge in faux obscenities on the same basis.

            *******

            on the subject of ‘answering questions’.

            when someone lines up a succession of ‘truths’ over the years, (all BS btw.)

            that every –literally every—major event in the recent run world of world affairs Moonlanding, WTC, Climate Change, Crisis actors in school shootings, Ukraine war is totally faked, Covid wasn’t real, Vaccines are a plot to kill us all, Gates is a mass murderer, Fauci is a Chinese agent .

            These are all ‘absolute truths’ and must not be questioned.

            Pointing out BS on OFW —brings a vomiting of se xual innuendo, accusations of pe dophilia,… and on and on. One can be nothing other than amused. And reply in kind. You think a fixation on ‘inflatable people’ is somehow ‘normal’? Maybe you do.

            I realistically suspect that person of having a serious personality disorder –which manifests itself (as far as OFW is concerned) in hysterical attention seeking. I try not to imagine RL.

            You are of course free to agree with all the above. That is your problem.

            But—do you seriously expect me to lend credence to any ‘question’ emanating from such a source of raving claptrap, by replying to it?
            One cannot have reasoned discussion with a 5 year old.

            *********

            do try to be aware that I do not respond to criticism with raging hysterics. You should be wary of those who do.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Janice = Gail?

              hahahahahaha

            • keep the empty vessel rattling eddy

              youre sounding more and more like the charity bucket being taken round the (absent) throng at a Fast Eddy convention

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I wonder who Janice can be…. it’s not a newbie … can’t be…

              Maybe it’s dunc… I betcha dunc is monitoring OFW (if he is still alive after The Big Mistakes)…

              Dunc would not post as dunc … cuz he said the unvaxxed would be culled because we are stooopid…

              As a lurker he’ll have seen all the data that shows it’s the vaxxed who are being culled…

              He could either slit his belly and like a magician pulling a ribbon out of his sleeve — unfurl his intestines for all to see… live on OFW…

              OR….

              He could reincarnate as Janice… and have a go at his old mate norm…

              My money is on dunc… possibly mike

            • well eddy

              if shes a lady who holds a contrary opinion to yours

              she will meet the same fate as any other woman who presumes such disrespect

              ”belongs on the streets”—the standard eddy dismissal?

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Depends on if she has facts and logic to back up a position …

              anna didn’t … therefore anna was dealt with … and now anna is locked up in the nut house

            • always reassuring to have my words confirmed eddy

              a woman disagrees with you—whoosh

              she’s ‘consigned ‘elsewhere’.

              here’s another few words you can fool around with.

              your way of dealing with the opposite sex only works online doesn’t eddy?

              try it in RL and we all know what the result would don’t we.

              a big smack. the Jen Psaki treatment. Wallop.

              would love to watch.

          • a further thought on child rearing which just occurred to me

            A Poem by UK poet Philip Larkin (don’t know if you’re familar with his work –don’t know where you live)

            “They fuck you up, your mum and dad.
            They may not mean to, but they do.
            They fill you with the faults they had
            And add some extra, just for you.

            But they were fucked up in their turn
            By fools in old-style hats and coats,
            Who half the time were soppy-stern
            And half at one another’s throats.

            Man hands on misery to man.
            It deepens like a coastal shelf.
            Get out as early as you can,
            And don’t have any kids yourself.”

            • Janice says:

              Norm, I’ve known about Larkin for many decades since I have had access to books, higher education, travel, and something called the World Wide Web. I’m a mere American, so I realize it’s surprising.

              Here he is reading “This Be the Verse” aloud, the smart man born in 1922, who had many lady friends, no wives, and definitely no children:

            • many people haven’t heard of him

              i have a few social skills—but mindreading isn’t one of them

              he was, by chance for a time, also our local librarian back in the day.

              ——–

              the driving force for most women is to reproduce., irrespective of global common sense.

              to that end an ‘average’ female will seek out the necessary male to do what is required.

              not at all ‘sensible’…but it happens a lot. Citing specific contrary examples serves no purpose, I try to comment on trends, not specifics.

              Humankind represents a herd with herd instincts–the rest is window dressing provided by surplus energy,

              and before you quote ‘declining populations’ do bear in mind that reliable universal contraception is entirely the product of our surplus energy industrial environment.

              folks haven’t given up having sex, just changed the outcome.

          • Haven’t you already posted that comment Janice

            cutting and resposting old comments is a bit much

            even eddy remixes his words–even if he is repeating the same nonsense

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Oh I see — so norm thinks asking why inject babies is nonsense… seems norm doesn’t mind that babies are will die and be maimed by the injections… why would anyone ask such a silly question right norm?

              norm the psychopath…

              Or maybe norm knows the answer — UEP means everyone dies … so why not inject every low hanging MOREON … it’s a numbers game … and end of the day — best to eliminate the babies…

              The parents are unlikely to eat a baby that died from ‘Long Covid’

              hahahaha… you get it norm!

        • Fast Eddy says:

          I’ll pay for a VIP room session for you if you provide us with a proper reply. Send me the link to gift a lap dance at your nearest VIP lounge when you post the reply

          The thing is…

          It is impossible for norm to respond — it’s like trying to use a microwave oven to assemble a car — it just does not compute… it’s like asking a dog to bake a cake…

          norm is deep in mass psychosis… his brain does not even acknowledge the question.

          How can you answer what you do not acknowledge. Hence the silence

          I imagine that when he tries to read What is the purpose of injecting the kids — he sees jumbled letters much as someone with severe dyslexia would see….

          afafkfjljjjytr lalafasdfrsww lloiaudhahdasfhaha

          • Xabier says:

            That would be more of a punishment for dear old Norman than a prize, FE!

            The quality of the native ‘working girls’ in the English provinces is abysmally low. You should send him to Shepherds’ Market in London.

            Some enterprising Eastern Europeans apparently did set up a brothel with imported girls in one of the villages here, a few years ago, but it got closed down. Clearly the police here are not quite corrupt enough.

            For a time it was amusing to see them shopping in town, as even their off-duty outfits were exiguous and spangly.

            • i’ve offered to send eddy the link to the international po rnstar who lives not far from me, (and to you too of course Xabier), but to be fair she caters to a more adult audience than would suit eddys taste i think

              I’m basing that assumption on previous comments made in that area of course

          • Eddy

            An international por nstar lives just a few miles from me.

            But she only caters for adults

            I would send you a link but she might not be of any interest to you

          • Janice says:

            Fast Eddy, I had a moment of pique and made the mistake of commenting to him again. He doesn’t remember our previous couple of interactions, so that tells me to let it go. He is, after all, 86.

            • Janice
              when an interaction is memorable

              one remembers it.

              i daresay you might have found that in other areas of your life, possibly intellectual, possibly something creative in other ways.
              Through variety lies the path to infinity. Much, i do assure you, is memorable even at 86, and without the company of inflatable people.

              but then again–I judge that you might not be aware of that. (at any age?)

              as i’ve pointed out at other times, you are only as good as someone else says you are

              but if you choose to swell the ranks of the conspironuts, far be it from me to try to offer you a different way.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Best Movie Ever? (BME)

            • i can flick the empty pages of your life book eddy so easily

              even the slightest puff of wind will blow them over

  43. “How America is coping with inflation: Buy what’s needed, nothing more.

    “Prices are rising for just about everything, forcing millions of Americans to make increasingly difficult choices. More than 8 in 10 consumers are planning to rethink or even reduce their product spending in the next three to six months.”

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/02/economy/inflation-impact-consumer-behavior/index.html

    • “Slump in New Car Sales in May Raises Specter of US Recession.

      “Slumping US new car sales in May on continued high prices and low inventories have some analysts worried those lower-than-expected results could be a harbinger of a broader economic downturn.”

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-02/may-slump-in-us-new-car-sales-raises-specter-of-recession

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        No kidding!

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Those making decisions about central bank interest rates don’t seem to be aware of this problem.

  44. “Gas traders rush to secure LNG tankers.

    “The world’s largest gas traders are scrambling to secure liquefied natural gas tankers ahead of winter after sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine triggered a reshaping of global energy flows… Rates to charter an LNG tanker for a year are trading near their highest level in a decade…”

    https://www.ft.com/content/bc66773f-b1fb-4105-83c6-582a2c7735cb

    • “Qatar LNG Output Falls Despite Surging Demand Amid Energy Crisis…

      “Qatar’s liquefied natural gas production dropped this year, despite requests from European countries hungry for bigger deliveries to replace Russian fuel. European utilities are scrambling to secure the commodity from producers around the world…”

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-03/qatar-lng-output-falls-despite-surging-demand-amid-energy-crisis

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Natural gas output tends to peak and decline.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Shipping LNG farther requires a lot more tanker resources.

  45. “Investors cash in on food commodities as the poor go hungry

    “As food prices rose and war broke out in Ukraine, investors looking for a sure bet flocked into food commodities. The trend could be pushing prices up even further, with live-or-die consequences for the world’s poor.”

    https://www.dw.com/en/investors-cash-in-on-food-commodities-as-the-poor-go-hungry/a-62007084

    • “Ukraine war sparks rush for potash as global food fears grow…

      “Mined from underground deposits formed during the evaporation of ancient seabeds, potash is a mineral rich in water-soluble potassium, one of the three essential nutrients required for crop growth. Crucial to the production of food staples such as corn, soy, rice and wheat, a sudden plunge in supply threatens to devastate global crop yields.”

      https://www.ft.com/content/ed442384-8ede-4e47-98f6-9788d27fc6d3

      • “Trouble ahead as the world food crisis starts to bite…

        “It doesn’t take a particularly paranoid leader to sense trouble ahead. Many recall the origins of the Arab spring, which started, at least symbolically, in 2010 with the self-immolation of a Tunisian vegetable vendor. Rising food prices in 2007 and 2008 sparked riots worldwide.”

        https://www.ft.com/content/f41a1804-ba14-47fb-bdec-0a715a6ba4b2

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Food problems everywhere, and the US mandates more ethanol in gasoline for 2022.

        https://www.wsj.com/articles/epa-trims-ethanol-fuel-mandate-for-2020-21-but-raises-it-for-2022-11654283272

        EPA Trims Ethanol Fuel Mandate for 2020-21 But Raises It for 2022
        Biden administration says changes are aimed at helping boost domestic fuel supplies

        Yes, but this doesn’t help food supplies.

    • “Chad declares food emergency, calls for help from local and foreign partners…

      “Chad’s appeal for assistance comes as the AU chairperson and the chairman of the AU commission will meet the Russian President Friday, in a bid to mediate in the war in Ukraine and discuss the release of stocks of grain and fertilizer whose blockage affects countries which heavily rely on imports.”

      https://www.africanews.com/2022/06/03/chad-declares-food-emergency-calls-for-help-from-national-and-foreign-partners/

      • i see a few more of your crisis actors showed up in Tulsa this week eddy

        I ‘m still a bit hazy about the rates though

        how much does a crisis actor get for getting actually dead?

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          I understand that the US wants to have rehearsals situations of armed intruders everywhere. This is sort of like teaching bad actors what to do. All of the news publicity is another way of encouraging this type of behavior.

          • just my own observation, but mass shooters seem to draw inspiration form previous ones

            just like conspironuts—they read some outlandish notion, and want to go one better

            the shooter is a nobody–and knows he will always be a nobody

            so he shoots 20 kids and is world famous in minutes.

            He is also dead….but hey—whats dead compared to fame?

  46. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Alexander Nepogodin: What does the future hold for the regions of Ukraine now controlled by Russia?

    RT looks at why the area is strategic to Russia’s economy, and the prospects for Zaporozhye and Kherson Regions
    https://www.rt.com/russia/556495-restoring-peaceful-life-kherson/

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The future is not entirely clear:

      The territories under Moscow’s control have decided not to wait for the hostilities to end and have begun their integration into Russia’s economy. High-ranking state officials regularly pay visits, talking about restoring peacetime life and integrating the territory into the ‘mainland’. For the Donbass, it took many years, but now every month counts. The local authorities are planning to transition to Russian law, establish ruble-based financial and pension systems, and set up procedures for issuing documents by the end of the year. This would certainly help in restoring the region and restarting its economy.

      Meanwhile, Russia has not reached a final decision on integration. If the decision is made, Moscow will face obstacles in implementing it, ranging from political to legal. Experts are discussing possible scenarios: The establishment of a people’s republic that would hold a referendum on acceding to Russia; merging with the Donetsk People’s Republic, which would later integrate into Russia; and also are searching for other legal grounds that would require changes to existing laws.

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