Is the debt bubble supporting the world economy in danger of collapsing?

The years between 1981 and 2020 were very special years for the world economy because interest rates were generally falling:

Figure 1. Yields on 10-year and 3-month US Treasuries, in a chart made by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis, as of May 10, 2022.

In some sense, falling interest rates meant that debt was becoming increasingly affordable. The monthly out-of-pocket expense for a new $500,000 mortgage was falling lower and lower. Automobile payments for a new $30,000 vehicle could more easily be accommodated into a person’s budget. A business would find it more affordable to add $5,000,000 in new debt to open at an additional location. With these beneficial effects, it would be no surprise if a debt bubble were to form.

With an ever-lower cost of debt, the economy has had a hidden tailwind pushing it long between 1981 to 2020. Now that interest rates are again rising, the danger is that a substantial portion of this debt bubble may collapse. My concern is that the economy may be heading for an incredibly hard landing because of the inter-relationship between interest rates and energy prices (Figure 2), and the important role energy plays in powering the economy.

Figure 2. Chart showing the important role Quantitative Easing (QE) to lower interest rates plays in adjusting the level of “demand” (and thus the selling price) for oil. Lower interest rates make goods and services created with higher-priced oil more affordable. In addition to the items noted on the chart, US QE3 was discontinued in 2014, about the time of the 2014 oil price crash. Also, the debt bubble crash of 2008 seems to be the indirect result of the US raising short term interest rates (Figure 1) in the 2004 to 2007 period.

In this post, I will try to explain my concerns.

[1] Ever since civilization began, a combination of (a) energy consumption and (b) debt has been required to power the economy.

Under the laws of physics, energy is required to power the economy. This happens because it takes the “dissipation” of energy to perform any activity that contributes to GDP. The energy dissipated can be the food energy that a person eats, or it can be wood or coal or another material burned to provide energy. Sometimes the energy dissipated is in the form of electricity. Looking back, we can see the close relationship between total energy consumption and world total GDP.

Figure 3. World energy consumption for the period 1990 to 2020, based on energy data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy and world Purchasing Power Parity GDP in 2017 International Dollars, as published by the World Bank.

The need for debt or some other approach that acts as a funding mechanism for capital expenditures (sale of shares of stock, for example), comes from the fact that humans make investments that will not produce a return for many years. For example, ever since civilization began, people have been planting crops. In some cases, there is a delay of a few months before a crop is produced; in other cases, such as with fruit or nut trees, there can be a delay of years before the investment pays back. Even the purchase by an individual of a home or a vehicle is, in a sense, an investment that will offer a return over a period of years.

With all parts of the economy benefiting from the lower interest rates (except, perhaps, banks and others lending the funds, who are making less profit from the lower interest rates), it is easy to see why lower interest rates would tend to stimulate new investment and drive up demand for commodities.

Commodities are used in great quantity, but the supply available at any one time is tiny by comparison. A sudden increase in demand will tend to send the commodity price higher because the quantity of the commodity available will need to be rationed among more would-be purchasers. A sudden decrease in the demand for a commodity (for example, crude oil, or wheat) will tend to send prices lower. Therefore, we see the strange sharp corners in Figure 2 that seem to be related to changing debt levels and higher or lower interest rates.

[2] The current plan of central banks is to raise interest rates aggressively. My concern is that this approach will leave commodity prices too low for producers. They will be tempted to decrease or stop production.

Politicians are concerned about the price of food and fuel being too high for consumers. Lenders are concerned about interest rates being too low to properly compensate for the loss of value of their investments due to inflation. The plan, which is already being implemented in the United States, is to raise interest rates and to significantly reverse Quantitative Easing (QE). Some people call the latter Quantitative Tightening (QT).

The concern that I have is that aggressively raising interest rates and reversing QE will lead to commodity prices that are too low for producers. There are likely to be many other impacts as well, such as the following:

  • Lower energy supply, due to cutbacks in production and lack of new investment
  • Lower food supply, due to inadequate fertilizer and broken supply lines
  • Much defaulting of debt
  • Pension plans that reduce or stop payments because of debt-related problems
  • Falling prices of stock
  • Defaults on derivatives

[3] My analysis shows how important increased energy consumption has been to economic growth over the last 200 years. Energy consumption per capita has been growing during this entire period, except during times of serious economic distress.

Figure 4. World energy consumption from 1820-2010, based on data from Appendix A of Vaclav Smil’s Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects and BP Statistical Review of World Energy for 1965 and subsequent. Wind and solar energy are included in “Biofuels.”

Figure 4 shows the amazing growth in world energy consumption between 1820 and 2010. In the early part of the period, the energy used was mostly wood burned as fuel. In some parts of the world, animal dung was also used as fuel. Gradually, other fuels were added to the mix.

Figure 5. Estimated average annual increase in world energy consumption over 10-year periods using the data underlying Figure 4, plus similar additional data through 2020.

Figure 5 takes the same information shown in Figure 4 and calculates the average approximate annual increase in world energy consumption over 10-year periods. A person can see from this chart that the periods from 1951-1960 and from 1961-1970 were outliers on the high side. This was the time of rebuilding after World War II. Many families were able to own a car for the first time. The US highway interstate system was begun. Many pipelines and electricity transmission lines were built. This building continued into the 1971-1980 period.

Figure 6. Same chart as Figure 5, except that the portion of economic growth that was devoted to population growth is shown in blue at the bottom of each 10-year period. The amount of growth in energy consumption “left over” for improvement in the standard of living is shown in red.

Figure 6 displays the same information as Figure 5, except that each column is divided into two pieces. The lower (blue) portion represents the average annual growth in population during each period. The part left over at the top (in red) represents the growth in energy consumption that was available for increases in standard of living.

Figure 7. The same information displayed in Figure 6, displayed as an area chart. Blue areas represent average annual population growth percentages during these 10-year periods. The red area is determined by subtraction. It represents the amount of energy consumption growth that is “left over” for growth in the standard of living. Captions show distressing events during periods of low increases in the portion available to raise standards of living.

Figure 7 shows the same information as Figure 6, displayed as an area chart. I have also shown some of the distressing events that happened when growth in population was, in effect, taking up essentially all of energy consumption growth. The world economy could not grow normally. There was a tendency toward conflict. Unusual events would happen during these periods, including the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union and the restrictions associated with the COVID pandemic.

The economy is a self-organizing system that behaves strangely when there is not enough inexpensive energy of the right types available to the system. Wars tend to start. Layers of government may disappear. Strange lockdowns may occur, such as the current restrictions in China.

[4] The energy situation at the time of rising interest rates in the 1960 to 1980 period was very different from today.

If we define years with high inflation rates as those with inflation rates of 5% or higher, Figure 8 shows that the period with high US inflation rates included nearly all the years from 1969 through 1982. Using a 5% inflation cutoff, the year 2021 would not qualify as a high inflation rate year.

Figure 8. US inflation rates, based on Table 1.1.4 Price Index for Gross Domestic Product, published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

It is only when we look at annualized quarterly data that inflation rates start spiking to high levels. Inflation rates have been above 5% in each of the four quarters ended 2022-Q1. Trade problems related to the Ukraine Conflict have tended to add to price pressures recently.

Figure 9. US inflation rates, based on Table 1.1.4 Price Index for Gross Domestic Product, published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Underlying these price spikes are increases in the prices of many commodities. Some of this represents a bounce back from artificially low prices that began in late 2014, probably related to the discontinuation of US QE3 (See Figure 2). These prices were far too low for producers. Coal and natural gas prices have also needed to rise, as a result of depletion and prior low prices. Food prices are also rising rapidly, since food is grown and transported using considerable quantities of fossil fuels.

The main differences between that period leading up to 1980 and now are the following:

[a] The big problem in the 1970s was spiking crude oil prices. Now, our problems seem to be spiking crude oil, natural gas and coal prices. In fact, nuclear power may also be a problem because a significant portion of uranium processing is performed in Russia. Thus, we now seem to be verging on losing nearly all our energy supplies to conflict or high prices!

[b] In the 1970s, there were many solutions to the crude oil problem, which were easily implemented. Electricity production could be switched from crude oil to coal or nuclear, with little problem, apart from building the new infrastructure. US cars were very large and fuel inefficient in the early 1970s. These could be replaced with smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles that were already being manufactured in Europe and Japan. Home heating could be transferred to natural gas or propane, to save crude oil for places where energy density was really needed.

Today, we are told that a transition to green energy is a solution. Unfortunately, this is mostly wishful thinking. At best, a transition to green energy will need a huge investment of fossil fuels (which are increasingly unavailable) over a period of at least 30 to 50 years if it is to be successful. See my article, Limits to Green Energy Are Becoming Much Clearer. Vaclav Smil, in his book Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects, discusses the need for very long transitions because energy supply needs to match the devices using it. Furthermore, new energy types are generally only add-ons to other supply, not replacements for those supplies.

[c] The types of economic growth in (a) the 1960 to 1980 period and (b) the period since 2008 are very different. In the earlier of these periods (especially prior to 1973), it was easy to extract oil, coal and natural gas inexpensively. Inflation-adjusted oil prices of less than $20 per barrel were typical. An ever-increasing supply of this oil seemed to be available. New machines (created with fossil fuels) made workers increasingly efficient. The economy tended to “overheat” if interest rates were not repeatedly raised (Figure 1). While higher interest rates could be expected to slow the economy, this was of little concern because rapid growth seemed to be inevitable. The supply of finished goods and services made by the economy was growing rapidly, even with headwinds from the higher interest rates.

On the other hand, in the 2008 to 2020 period, economic growth is largely the result of financial manipulation. The system has been flooded with increasing amounts of debt at ever lower interest rates. By the time of the lockdowns of 2020, would-be workers were being paid for doing nothing. World production of finished goods and services declined in 2020, and it has had difficulty rising since. In the first quarter of 2022, the US economy contracted by -1.4%. If headwinds from higher interest rates and QT are added, the economic system is likely to encounter substantial debt defaults and increasing breakdowns of supply lines.

[5] Today’s spiking energy prices appear to be much more closely related to the problems of the 1913 to 1945 era than they are to the problems of the late 1970s.

Looking back at Figure 7, our current period is more like the period between the two world wars than the period in the 1970s that we often associate with high inflation. In both periods, the “red” portion of the chart (the portion I identify with rising standard of living), has pretty much disappeared. In both the 1913 to 1945 period and today, it is nearly all the energy supplies other than biofuels that are disappearing.

In the 1913 to 1945 period, the problem was coal. Mines were becoming increasingly depleted, but raising coal prices to pay for the higher cost of extracting coal from depleted mines tended to make the coal prohibitively expensive. Mine operators tried to reduce wages, but this was not a solution either. Fighting broke out among countries, almost certainly related to inadequate coal supplies. Countries wanted coal to supply to their citizens so that industry could continue, and so that citizens could continue heating their homes.

Figure 10. Slide prepared by Gail Tverberg showing peak coal estimates for the UK and for Germany.

As stated at the beginning of this section, today’s problem is that nearly all our energy supplies are becoming unaffordable. In some sense, wind and solar may look better, but this is because of mandates and subsidies. They are not suitable for operating the world economy within any reasonable time frame.

There are other parallels to the 1913 to 1945 period. One of the big problems of the 1930s was prices that would not rise high enough for farmers to make a profit. Oil prices in the United States were extraordinarily low then. BP 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy reports that the average oil price in 1931, in 2020 US$, was $11.08. This is the lowest inflation-adjusted price of any year back to 1865. Such a price was almost certainly too low for producers to make a profit. Low prices, relative to rising costs, have recently been problems for both farmers and oil producers.

Another major problem of the 1930s was huge income disparity. Wide income disparity is again an issue today, thanks to increased specialization. Competition with unskilled workers in low wage countries is also an issue.

It is important to note that the big problem of the 1930s was deflation rather than inflation, as the debt bubble started popping in 1929.

[6] If a person looks only at the outcome of raising interest rates in the 1960s to 1980 timeframe, it is easy to get a misleading idea of the impact of increased interest rates now.

If people look only at what happened in the 1980s, the longer-term impact of the spike in interest rates doesn’t seem too severe. The world economy was growing well before the interest rates were raised. After the peak in interest rates, the world economy generally continued to grow. As a result of the high oil prices and the spiking interest rates, the world hastened its transition to using a bit less crude oil per person.

Figure 11. Per capita crude oil production from 1973 through 2021. Crude oil amounts are from international statistics of the US Energy Information Administration. Population estimates are from UN 2019 population estimates. The low population growth projection from the UN data is used for 2021.

At the same time, the world economy was able to expand the use of other energy products, at least through 2018.

Figure 12. World per capita total energy supply based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. World per capita crude oil is based on international data of the EIA, together with UN 2019 population estimates. Note that crude oil data is through 2021, but total energy amounts are only through 2020.

Since 2019, our problem has been that the total energy supply has not been keeping up with the rising population. The cost of extraction of all kinds of oil, coal and natural gas keeps rising due to depletion, but the ability of customers to afford the higher prices of finished goods and services made with those energy products does not rise to match these higher costs. Energy prices probably would have spiked in 2020 if it were not for COVID-related restrictions. Production of oil, coal and natural gas has not been able to rise sufficiently after the lockdowns for economies to fully re-open. This is the primary reason for the recent spiking of energy prices.

Turning to inflation rates, the relationship between higher interest rates (Figure 1) and annual inflation rates (Figure 8) is surprisingly not very close. Inflation rates rose during the 1960 to 1973 period despite rising interest rates, mostly likely because of the rapid growth of the economy from an increased per-capita supply of inexpensive energy.

Figure 8 shows that inflation rates did not come down immediately after interest rates were raised to a high level in 1980, either. There was a decline in the inflation rate to 4% in 1983, but it was not until the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991 that inflation rates have tended to stay close to 2% per year.

[7] A more relevant recent example with respect to the expected impact of rising interest rates is the impact of the increase in US short-term interest rates in the 2004 to 2007 period. This led to the subprime debt collapse in the US, associated with the Great Recession of 2008-2009.

Looking back at Figure 1, one can see the effect of raising short-term interest rates in the 2004 to 2007 era. This eventually led to the Great Recession of 2008-2009. I wrote about this in my academic paper, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis, published in the journal Energy in 2010.

The situation we are facing today is much more severe than in 2008. The debt bubble is much larger. The shortage of energy products has spread beyond oil to coal and natural gas, as well. The idea of raising interest rates today is very much like going into the Great Depression and deciding to raise interest rates because bankers don’t feel like they are getting an adequate share of the goods and services produced by the economy. If there really aren’t enough goods and services for everyone, giving lenders a larger share of the total supply cannot work out well.

[8] The problems we are encountering have been hidden for many years by an outdated understanding of how the economy operates.

Because of the physics of the economy, it behaves very differently than most people assume. People almost invariably assume that all aspects of the economy can “stay together” regardless of whether there are shortages of energy or of other products. People also assume that shortages will be immediately become obvious through high prices, without realizing the huge role interest rates and debt levels play. People further assume that these spiking prices will somehow bring about greater supply, and the whole system will go on as before. Furthermore, they expect that whatever resources are in the ground, which we have the technical capability to extract, can be extracted.

It is important to note that prices are not necessarily a good indicator of shortages. Just as a fever can have many causes, high prices can have many causes.

The economy can only continue as long as all of its important parts continue. We cannot assume that reported reserves of anything can really be extracted, even if the reserves have been audited by a reliable auditor. What actually can be extracted depends on prices staying high enough to generate funds for additional investment as required. The amount that can be extracted also depends on the continuation of international supply lines providing goods such as steel pipe. The continued existence of governments that can keep order in the areas where extraction is to take place is important, as well.

What we should be most concerned about is a very rapidly shrinking economic system that cannot accommodate very many people. It seems that such a situation might occur if the debt bubble is popped and too many supply lines are broken. There may be a time lag between when interest rates are raised and when the adverse impacts on the economy are seen. This is a reason why central bankers should be very cautious about the increases in interest rates they make as well as QT. The situation may turn out much worse than planned!

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
This entry was posted in Energy policy, Financial Implications and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

4,216 Responses to Is the debt bubble supporting the world economy in danger of collapsing?

  1. Fast Eddy says:

    ‘Top Biden health officials sound warning on rising covid infections’

    https://palexander.substack.com/p/top-biden-health-officials-sound

    hahahahaha… round and round we go … cuz the boosters make it so!

    How’s your wrecked immune system norm?

    • New York Times:

      How often can you be infected with the Coronavirus?
      The spread of the Omicron variant has given scientists an unsettling answer: repeatedly, sometimes within months.

  2. Fast Eddy says:

    URGENT: The most powerful evidence yet that mRNA vaccines hurt long-term immunity to Covid after infection

    A bombshell study – from the National Institutes of Health and Moderna, no less – should end debate

    https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/urgent-the-most-powerful-evidence

    norm deletes this .. boring. More Boosters!

  3. Fast Eddy says:

    “Reprehensible and Reckless:” Noted Cardiologist Blasts the FDA For Downplaying Vaccine-Induced Myocarditis and Approving Experimental Jab For Children – Says An “Extraordinary Number” of Young People Will End Up With “PERMANENT Heart Damage”

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/12/reprehensible-reckless-noted-cardiologist-blasts-fda-downplaying-vaccine-induced-myocarditis-approving-experimental-jab-children-says-extraordinary-number-young-pe/

    My child’s body my choice!

  4. Fast Eddy says:

    Check this out! Zombie Land: https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/05/scene-philadelphia-leaders-send-billions-ukraine-video/

    Would it make me a bad person to suggest that it would be ok to have the police drive past once a week and open fire with a 50 cal machine gun putting those people out of their misery?

  5. Fast Eddy says:

    NATIONAL CATASTOPHE — IGNORED BY MEDIA: 10 Straight Days of New All-Time Highs in Gas Prices Under Joe Biden — Up 20 Cents in 10 Days

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/05/national-catastophe-ignored-media-10-straight-days-new-time-highs-gas-prices-joe-biden-20-cents-10-days/

    I am sure Americans are noticing ….

    What cannot continue – will stop….

  6. Fast Eddy says:

    Gas prices record high, stocks fall, retirement accounts plummet, borders breached, massive street crime, cost of living sky rockets; BIDEN’s train wreck; he/DEMS are destroying America

    https://palexander.substack.com/p/gas-prices-record-high-stocks-fall

    Imagine if Biden was actually in control!

  7. Student says:

    (Byoblu)

    ‘Monkeypox also in Italy: in November Bill Gates urged governments to invest in preparing for a new pandemic and maybe an attack exactly of smallpox’

    from time 2.30 to time 4.50 of the tv news on the following link.
    Inside the video they talk about Bill Gates and that a vaccine has been already approved by FDA in 2019….
    Come on, those guys plan everything very well, isn’t it?

    https://www.byoblu.com/2022/05/19/tg-byoblu24-19-maggio-2022-edizione-2000/

    • Five years ago, all of this would have sounded absurd. Now, increasingly strange events keep happening.

    • MM says:

      As I understand first cases appeared in UK.
      “It” is actually transmitted by bite or eating bushmeat.

      Where the heck do you get theses monkeys from in the UK, when there is no outbreak whatsoever reported in the jungles of Africa?
      I mean, very strange.
      Could be related to immunodeficiency from vaccination as well…
      But really very strange.

      • MM says:

        wait a second, I heared they use monkey cells for in vitro experiments with virii or vaccines?

        • Foolish Fitz says:

          If I remember correctly it was monkey anus cells, so the people affected should be easy to spot.
          They’ll be the ones throwing their own feces around.

          • MM says:

            Point made but I am not interested in other people’s anusses. Some like to post it on Twitter. Luckily I am not there.

            • Tim Groves says:

              Please take that second “s” out of your anus when you pluralize it.

              The plural form of anus is anuses or ani.

            • MM says:

              @Tim Groves: It’s a bit late but it took ne a while to realize. Sorry.

              For some reason I took the bait and it was poisonous. The above poster is unknown…
              Some time ago you could say such things…
              Paradoxically I said “I am not interested”.
              Interestig!
              I think it is due to the fact that once I was terribly mocked in a discussion about gender where I stated that I really have no problems with gender. I was pushed into a corner and it was terrible!
              Somhow since then I have not overcome being triggered somehow.
              I understand Tim Groves that this was maybe not your primary intention too but anyhow, it is as it is and another learning possibility.

              The topic is about:
              “ES cell lines from cynomolgus monkey (Macaca fascicularis”

              https://cellbank.brc.riken.jp/cell_bank/CellInfo/?cellNo=RCB1846&lang=En

              Gender Unknown
              Age at sampling fetus
              Tissue spleen

              As the topic was brought up from a certain newpaper and poster and it has not really anything todo with a sickness, my conclusion is, that it might be some sort of an AI marker.
              Certain marks obviously are very important today in transactions.

              Anyhow, please accept my apology and thank you.

    • Dennis M. says:

      MonkeyPox virus, despite the name, is carried by African rodents. No monkeys are involved. It can infect humans, but does not transfer from person to person very readily. It generally causes a very mild disease in humans. All the media attention is rather overdone IMO.

  8. cassandraclub says:

    The US government is releasing oil from the strategic petroleum reserves to sustain the American way of life. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W
    At this pace the SPR will be gone in 2 years

    Still a barrel of WTI nowadays is more expensive than the European barrel of Brent and the stocks of crude and petroleum products are shrinking.
    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WTTSTUS1&f=W

  9. Mirror on the wall says:

    LOL?

  10. Mirror on the wall says:

    This guy is actually quite good, if you want to chill out for half an hour and get an update of the day’s events on the ground. It is probably one for the blokey blokes.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      Alex M gave his daily chat. He is well impressed with the Russian performance at Mariopul, and he fancies, tentatively, that UKR forces may soon collapse in the Donbass – time will tell on that one. UKR spent eight years fortifying defensive positions, so it may well be a drawn out process, and certainly not a ‘lightning war’.

  11. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    It’s desperate’: Senate plans a vote on sending billions to pandemic-hit restaurants
    Ben Werschkul
    Ben Werschkul·Senior Producer and Writer
    Wed, May 18, 2022, 2:49 PM
    Last year, thousands of pandemic-hit restaurants applied for government aid through the Restaurant Revitalization Fund. But then the program ran dry before everyone in line was taken care of.

    Now after months of waiting, the Senate has teed up a key vote to replenish the fund with an infusion of an additional $40 billion for restaurants and $8 billion more for other small businesses.

    The vote is set for as soon as Thursday and faces Republican resistance, but advocates say it could be the difference between some hospitality businesses holding on or closing their doors.

    “This is their last opportunity,” Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD) says of restaurants that are awaiting the money, during an interview with Yahoo Finance Live on Wednesday. “[These are] Ma and Pa type businesses, and they’ve taken out mortgages on their home to keep the restaurant open — they’re having a hard time competing with those other restaurants that got the help.”

    “It’s desperate,” he added.

    The vote comes as the hospitality industry struggles with hiring and a labor shortage. Just under 11.6 million people worked in food services and drinking places in April 2022, which is still well below the 12.4 million employed in the industry on the eve of the pandemic.

    Hahaha…like that’s going to help…seems the Feds are still providing lifelines to businesses..
    The Airlines, tourist and other non essential BS sectors will muddle along until they wither after the Aahhaa moment….
    Struggle for workers….that’s a good one.

    • Jason says:

      Covid killed any kind of free market that might have existed. I’m sure our wise and intelligent politicians will do a fine job spreading our goods and resources around. No problemo. See you all on the other side.

    • With high energy prices now, it is hard to see how these extra funds will prevent huge layoffs, anyhow.

    • MM says:

      A rising inflation lifts all boats!

  12. Kurt says:

    As Gail has been pointing out for many years, the world is running out of cheap energy. Russia, China, India, and OPEC realized that the West was just going to pick them off one by one. So they got together 10 years ago and it is now an economic war. Both sides have super computers that have gamed this out. The Eastern alliance will win. Their goal is the break up of Nato and the EU, the destruction of the petro dollar, and of the US as the uni-power.
    Ukraine is just a distraction but also a catalyst. Russia and China can withhold strategic resources and manufactured goods without being too draconian. OPEC can keep the price of oil up near $100. It’s a long slow squeeze. France, Germany, and Italy now realize they are being sacrificed by the US.
    Russia has done this to Napolean and Hitler. Let the other side think they are winning while you slowly whittle them down. France, Germany and Italy are just like the German generals in WWII. They can get destroyed or they can surrender and hope for good terms – which they are now starting to do. The US is like Napolean. Sitting in Moscow as the snow falls, suddenly realizing he has no options and he will be lucky to survive.

  13. Student says:

    Hi All,
    I warmly suggest you this documentary that gives some VERY interesting hidden facts about the war in Ukraine and expecially about what happened before the war.
    One may not agree about all of it, but there are some key facts that are incredible (because MSM didn’t report them here on the ‘western world’) and are also indisputable.
    Please find the time to watch it.
    This version is translated in English.
    All the best.

    https://odysee.com/@luogocomune:5/ukraine-the-other-truth:2

  14. Pingback: SENECA ENERGY CLIFF: The Collapse Of Debt Bubble & Palisades Radio Chat Live On Twitter – altnews.org

  15. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    In US, states struggle to replace fossil fuel tax revenue
    Major energy producing states from Alaska to Pennsylvania are reaping a windfall from soaring oil and natural gas prices, stoked by the war in Ukraine and the U.S.-led ban on Russian oil imports
    By MORGAN LEE and MEAD GRUVER Associated Press
    May 16, 2022, 10:20 AM ET
    SANTA FE, N.M. — Government budgets are booming in New Mexico: Teacher salaries are up, residents can go to an in-state college tuition-free, moms will get medical care for a year after childbirth, and criminal justice initiatives are being funded to reduce urban violence.
    The reason behind the spending spree — oil. New Mexico is the No. 2 crude oil producer among U.S. states and the top recipient of U.S. disbursements for fossil fuel production on federal land. But a budget flush with petroleum cash has a side effect: It also puts the spotlight on how difficult it is to turn state rhetoric on tackling climate change into reality.
    State governments in the nation’s top regions for producing oil, natural gas and coal have by far the highest per-capita reliance on fossil fuels — led by Wyoming, North Dakota, Alaska and New Mexico. The revenue bankrolls essential public services, from highway maintenance to prisons. In Carlsbad, New Mexico, oil infrastructure property taxes are underwriting a high school performing arts center, expanded sports facilities and elementary school renovations.
    None of that would be possible without oil revenue, said schools superintendent Gerry Washburn
    “We can’t slow down in that area and what we do to fund schools until we have a legitimate replacement” for oil and natural gas income, he said. “Whether you’re in the middle of the oil patch or in an area with no oil and gas drilling going on, those policies are going to impact revenue in every school district in the state.”
    Federal, state and local governments receive an estimated $138 billion a year from the fossil fuel industry, according to a study from the Washington-based nonpartisan economics group Resources for the Future, which does not advocate on energy policies. That’s equivalent to the annual state spending of New York and Texas combined.
    The cashflow is dominated by gasoline and diesel retail taxes in every state, but energy-producing states have the deepest dependence on fossil fuel income through a gamut of taxes, royalties, lease sales and fees. Because that revenue helps pay for government services, they tend to tax residents less, said Daniel Raimi, a fellow at Resources for the Future, and co-author of the study.
    “That’s a really challenging dynamic if you think about a shift away from fossil fuels,” he said. “They’re going to be faced with the question: Do we raise our taxes on our residents or do we reduce the level of services we provide?”
    In New Mexico, oil and gas account for 42% of state government income, a share that is rising amid the war in Ukraine and record-setting oil production in the Permian Basin that stretches across southeastern New Mexico and western Texas. Additional oil income flows to a new interest-bearing trust for early childhood education.
    Soaring fossil fuel industry profits also allowed the Democratic-controlled New Mexico Legislature to try to tackle the highest-in-the-nation unemployment rate and persistently high poverty. Lawmakers provided $1.1 billion in tax relief and direct payments of up to $1,500 per household to offset inflation.
    …..Democratic state Rep. Greg Vitali, an advocate for stronger climate change action, said local governments relying on gas drilling money will simply have to use traditional tools such as property taxes to get by.
    Republican-dominated Wyoming, the top coal production state, has bold goals to reduce greenhouse emissions to less than zero even while fossil fuels account for over half its revenue.
    Meanwhile, a decade of declining coal demand has sapped government income. Republican Gov. Mark Gordon in March signed a coal tax reduction, forgoing about $9 million annually to help the coal industry stay economically viable.
    The state — one of only two with no taxes on individual income, corporate income or gross receipts — must confront its dependence on fossil fuel money eventually, said Jennifer Lowe, executive director of the Equality State Policy Center, a government watchdog group.

    “At some point, there’s going to have to be a come-to-Jesus moment,” Lowe said.

    Don’t think we’ll make it that far for a Jesus moment..

    Gail is correct again…fossil fuels fuel governments

    • We need to tax “green renewables” enough to make up for the loss of tax revenue on fossil fuels. Fossil fuels have traditionally been a huge source of revenue to governments at all levels.

      • Dennis L. says:

        Gail,

        I don’t know about taxes, maybe starve the beast; they need to do basics, roads, basic education, etc. at a local level.

        At an ISU meeting yesterday recognition was made of land use by solar, it is significant.

        Looking forward: smaller farm equipment, more units, autonomous, Elon’s system would be good enough, multiple battery packs for each unit, recharge with solar, no transmission loss to speak of. The big stuff is too hard to store, transport, etc. I mentioned this in a Q/A, no one is buying it, mention was made that since 2018 farmers cannot repair JD equipment, codes not accessible.

        Iver Farms in IN has made mention they work longer hours now than in the sixties, but not as physical, they farm in two states, multiple thousands of acres.

        So much data was presented, someone is using AI to synthesize conclusions, it is almost all available, interesting project. I read very fast, too much data to use in a meaningful manner. Full prof, ISU, presented, mostly simple linear regressions, none predicted the Ukraine issue.

        Excellent presentation on weather; only three areas in the world are ideal for growing crops with good transportation: IA, IN,IL, etc., Ukraine and Europe. Need flat rivers, Mississippi comes to mind.

        We are cold here, planting is late, western MN is a lake, too much rain.

        Governments are mostly tertiary now, farming is primary along with oil. Tertiary will be shed secondary to lack of funds, basically TM thesis.

        Dennis L.

        • Thanks for your observations.

          It is easy for researchers to think that solar+batteries might work for farm equipment, but the real-world obstacles are huge.

          The best farming areas of the world are quite limited. I would imaging some of India should be included, too, with its year-around crops.

          My relatives in Minnesota have been complaining about the weather there also.

          I agree that, at most, the world can now can support only primary activities, and perhaps a few secondary activities. Remind me what “TM” is short for. I haven’t necessarily studied these things formally.

    • Artleads says:

      In the City of Santa Fe there is sprawl commercial development on an unprecedented scale. There is multifamily residential close by to the single story commercial sprawl, but I’m sure fast food joint workers can’t afford to live there. I wonder what that development overall has to do with oil or schools.

      • Dennis Loeffler says:

        Money, but no water, it is a desert; even the Amerindians abandoned four corners.

        Dennis L.

  16. Pingback: SENECA ENERGY CLIFF: The Collapse Of Debt Bubble & Palisades Radio Chat Live On Twitter – Biz Patriot

  17. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Recession Risks Are Contagious As Japan’s GDP Stumbles—Again…

    “The real wake-up call here is how little Kishida and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda can do about it. Fiscal policy options are greatly limited by a debt-to-GDP ratio well above 250%, making Tokyo quite the outlier among Group of Seven nations. In fact, the zeros are almost getting too numerous to type out here.”

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/williampesek/2022/05/18/recession-risks-are-contagious-as-japans-gdp-stumbles–again/

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Japan Inc suddenly sees the downside of tumbling yen… Higher energy and materials costs outweigh benefit of weak currency even for big exporters…

      “For Toyota, “an unprecedented” rise in raw material and logistics costs will wipe ¥1.45tn ($11bn) from its operating profits for the fiscal year through to March 2024, far outweighing ¥195bn in currency-related gains.”

      https://www.ft.com/content/0167a3a3-4bad-4086-b96f-4b3961b13055

    • Japan will start having almost as many problems as Europe, I am afraid. It needs to import pretty much all of its fuel and many mineral products. It has an incredible amount of debt to start with. It doesn’t have enough land to grow food for all of its population. It has way too many people old people in the mix of people.

      Furthermore, the number of workers is trending downward, pushing the economy toward contraction, even in the absence of higher interest rates and higher prices of fuel causing problems.

      • drb753 says:

        I don’t see how this can be avoided, Gail. Japan has done a much better job of protecting its own industries, compared to Europe. It is a far more civilized country. But it is more densely populated, and it has even fewer mineral resources than Europe. Demographics is slightly worse than Europe as you suggest. A healthy political system will never beat resource constraints. Money printing is about the same and does not really matter anymore.

  18. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Poor Countries Face a Mounting Catastrophe Fueled by Inflation and Debt…

    ““It’s like wildfires in all directions,” said Jayati Ghosh, an economist at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. “This is much bigger than after the global financial crisis. Everything is stacked against the low- and middle-income countries.””

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/17/business/inflation-developing-economies.html

  19. Harry McGibbs says:

    “EU accepts it will burn more coal in move away from Russian gas.

    “Coal is the most carbon-intensive fuel but the European Commission said the EU would use 5 per cent more than previously expected over the next five to 10 years as the bloc tries to replace Russian energy imports.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/5d95b294-280f-4b38-9d23-70035e077392

  20. Harry McGibbs says:

    “What China’s Dramatic Drop In Energy Demand Means For Its Economy… The fallout of China’s zero COVID policy is spreading as economic downturns and social unrest intensifies across the nation…

    “The dramatic drop in energy demand, while indicative of an unhealthy economy, comes with a couple of silver linings. The timing of the drop in China’s generally enormous energy needs comes amid a global energy supply crunch that has sent electricity and fuel prices soaring through the roof.”

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/What-Chinas-Dramatic-Drop-In-Energy-Demand-Means-For-Its-Economy.html

  21. Fast Eddy says:

    Hopefully she ends up on a vent and dies https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/pm-too-unwell-chair-cabinet-pre-budget

    Wrecked immune system

    • CTG says:

      Hah… do you think she is that stupit to take the real one?

    • Good example of how well the vaccines really work.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        a vaccine that doesn’t stop you from getting the disease (even if you inject it 5 or more times) is a ?????

        • JMS says:

          … poison, like any other vac.cine ever devised by the chemical-pharmaceutical complex.
          After two years of such an obvious scaredemic operation, this should be common knowledge for everyone now.

    • Jane says:

      Me, too.

      Would serve her right.

      The wages of fanaticism.

      Color me Schadenfreude, this season’s new hue.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I actually don’t have a problem with her supporting the injections – they are necessary.

        I just don’t like those big teeth and that ‘Blue Steel’ look of hers … it’s incredibly traumatic for me having to look at photos of her… and then there’s that commie background…. and I’m also wondering about popping pills and spinning qualifies one for PM…

        I suppose just like with Canada and the US … getting quality people to put a face on the UEP is difficult — you really don’t want that anyway… better if you have totally incompetent fools in place who are just happy to be able to tell their mothers that they are important.

        Where’s Clarke? When do I get my wedding invite?

    • Student says:

      Reading at the article I have the impression that NZ politicians did believe in what they said to us and they really had the jab.
      Amazing.
      While, on the contrary, I can tell you that no Italian politicians felt bad during these 2 years.
      Just a tiny part of them said that had Covid-19, with 99% of them with light simptoms and it lasted a couple of days, just the time for an ‘aperitivo’ with friends in order to relax a bit from chaotic and hectic life.
      So they didn’t had the jab 🙂
      they just said to us to take it.

      • Wet My Beak says:

        You’re dealing with low IQ politicians in new zealand. It’s also no longer a democracy, more like an ethno-socialist disaster. Tens of thousands of kiwis are leaving. There is no future here.

        Ram-raiding, murder and suicide are now the pursuits of choice for kiwis in their leisure times.

        Cave cave. Deus videt.

        Sad.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Case in point … during the wellington protests… the govt turned on the water sprinklers thinking that would make everyone leave (I guess)… but at the same time the city was in the midst of a drought … and I saw bus ads urging people to take short showers.

          The government of NZ is run by incompetent petulant stupid child-like MOREONS headed up by a donkey-faced former DJ/commie… so if she’s PM imagine the level of incompetence below her.

          Did I mention her husband deals drugs to the movers and shakers?

          Wonder if that has anything to do with the cancelled wedding that nobody talks about …. that and his love child with the nanny…

          The government of NZ is completely dysfunctional … the class president of a grade 8 class could easily do better. Even Biden looks good compares to this circus act.

          And J’ASSinda frowns.

          https://www.bandt.com.au/information/uploads/2020/04/1668.jpg

    • Wet My Beak says:

      Thou shall not suffer a witch to live. She must burn.

  22. Fast Eddy says:

    mike norm for you https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/35762

  23. Harry McGibbs says:

    “China, U.S. lead rise in global debt to record high $305 trillion – IIF.

    “The world’s two largest economies borrowed the most in the first quarter as global debt rose to a record above $305 trillion, while the overall debt-to-output ratio declined, data from the Institute of International Finance showed on Wednesday…

    “”As central banks move ahead with policy tightening to curb inflationary pressures, higher borrowing costs will exacerbate debt vulnerabilities,” the IIF report said.”

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/china-us-lead-rise-global-debt-record-high-305-trillion-iif-2022-05-18/

  24. Jeff Lovejoy says:

    “The economy is a self-organizing system that behaves strangely when there is not enough inexpensive energy of the right types available to the system. Wars tend to start. Layers of government may disappear.”

    “Wars tend to start.” When have the wars stopped?

    Being an American, all I have known is endless war and endless warmongering. And to what end?

    With the latest $40-billion-dollar largess granted, the US government is now supporting the Ukraine government 100-percent. Ukraine was the biggest trailer park trash, deadbeat parasitic nation, and failed state — and that was before they ticked-off their Russian neighbors. Now Ukraine has become the problem of the US taxpayer? Who voted for that?

    “Layers of government may disappear.” Name me one government entity that once created went away. This government can’t create more complexity fast enough.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      War is what allows you to live large. So many Americans are ignorant of that fact.

      • Jeff Lovejoy says:

        No Eddy, it is not. Hope you’re being sarcastic, otherwise it is you my friend who is ignorant.

        “So many Americans are ignorant of that fact.”

        ????

        Your facts? Just because your mouth (and Harry McGibbs’) mouth runs like a Whippoorwill’s ass in berry season in this comments section only showcases your ignorance (and Harry’s).

        Are you and Harry just a couple of government trolls? Are the two of you related to “California Surfer?”

        • vbaker says:

          Okay, well…. how did the US get brought into WW I, and what were the consequences for the US and the UK in particular?

        • Fast Eddy says:

          All I can say is… MOREONS come… and MOREONS go… the world is awash is a sea of MOREONS…. who have no idea that they are MOREONS…..

          Hey I wonder if the US disbanded it’s military and instead of stealing the resources of other countries they held weekly love-ins complete with singing Imagine and Koombaya + the tambourine thump…

          If they’d still be so fat?

          Check this out – is this obese – or morbidly obese… a few more buckets of KFC and she’s into morbid… https://swimsuit.si.com/swimsuit/model/yumi-nu

      • Dennis Loeffler says:

        Switzerland?

        Dennis L.

        • drb753 says:

          If you are a small country, being a globalist tax haven and money laundering center, and selling out to Big Pharma, can work. Otherwise, you have to secure resources one way or another.

    • wars have always been about access to or holding onto resources.

      one nation’s resources are always the envy of another nation, reasons can always be found to go to war over them, once wars start, male ego cannot extricate from war, cannoit ‘lose face’–so wars go on, and young men die.

      and thus the resources fought over, are ultimately exhausted by the war itself.

      few can allow themselves to see that

    • The UK recently left the EU.

      The central government of the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. I expect to see more changes of this type.

      Studies of violence indicate that the highest percentage of people killed by other people occurred in pre-historical times. Rates have gradually decreased, with the increased “civilization” that comes with increased energy consumption (even energy from animals used as beasts of burden). When food becomes hard to get (too high priced for many citizens), then violence increases.

      With respect to the change of death rates, see this link:

      https://ourworldindata.org/ethnographic-and-archaeological-evidence-on-violent-deaths

      Food and violence:
      https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/riots.png

      From: http://arxiv.org/abs/1108.2455

      • Jane says:

        For most of the post-agriculture history of H. sapiens it is the peons/slaves/peasants who have created with their labor the food surpluses that have fed the elites. when food was short the laborers continued laboring even when their own rations were cut short.
        There weren’t any “citizens.”
        I have to laugh at pundits who talk about “we have to feed the masses.”
        “What you me ‘we,’ Kemo Sabe?”
        (Tonto, as quoted in Mad magazine.)

        It is the masses that do the work so that pundits and analysts can eat and call themselves “we.”
        Even in agribusiness nations, it is the proles who process and deliver all of the industrially generated food.

        After empire collapse it is a few pockets of “peasants” who manage to survive away from urban centers.

        Cf. Clive Ponting, A New Green History of the World.

  25. CTG says:

    One comment in ZH on diesel shortage :

    We’re still shifting from the ‘slowly’ to the ‘all at once’ stage of collapse. Once the trucks don’t make it to the supermarkets to unload and to gas stations to refill them, it’s a matter of days.

    • nikoB says:

      Yes but do you think that, that is likely to happen everywhere at once, in every country?
      Would it not mostly be the periphery countries right now?

      • CTG says:

        As a counter to divadinabillionyears

        It can happen anywhere and at an instance. Contrast this to natural disaster where you know help will be coming. This “big issue”, there is no cavalry coming in to help.

        It is already happening in poorer countries but they are not really plugged into the world of “convenience” where at a click, they can transfer money easily or if they are a key hub (check out Trade Off by Korowicz) for trade or manufacturing.

        That is why I am watching closely to see what happens to the eastern seaboard of USA. It is a confluence of high demand and low supply and there are no solutions, as far as I can see.

        Likely a tsunami, it suddenly happens. There are warnings like (1)finding and unstable undersea volcano/tectonic plates (2)people warning about it (3) meters being set up

        However, a confluence of things happen and all happen at once. So, one morning, one will wake up, smell the flowers, heard a rumble, perhaps not realizing it is the volcano/tectonic has gone off and within minutes/hours, the tsunami came crashing in.

        1. People realize that diesel will be short
        2. People start to hoard
        3. Gas station start to limit purchase
        4. People saw the limit and start to hoard even more
        5. Price goes up as some station may be out of supply.
        6,. People hoard more (perhaps others will hoard – farmers, heavy users of diesel)
        7. Truckers see that they may not have enough gas to return to origin and some independent truckers may not want to go in as it is just too risky to be stuck inside without diesel.
        8. Shortage become more apparent and that includes food, fuel and stuff.
        9. Positive feedback loop, people hoard more
        10. All hell break lose.

        I would like to hear what other scenarios you all have. Note that it is now certain that high gas prices will stay for a long time to come.

        Normalcy bias is a bit’ch

        • nikoB says:

          High gas prices will remain until sufficient numbers of consumers are removed from the purchasing arena. Then it will collapse.
          Rinse repeat but at lower levels?

          • CTG says:

            NikoB… do you know that taking out large portion of the consumer is also collapse and it crashes the system? Debt-based economy needs growth else it collapses

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Correct. If it were otherwise the Elders would just figure out a way to kill the non-essential people.

              Easily done – just get the PR Team to vilify these people — and the hordes would be on the streets screaming KILL THEM KILL THEM .. KILL THEM ALL … KILL THE USELESS FEEDERS!!!

            • nikoB says:

              CTG, Yes I think that is very possible and probable. However I am always surprised by how much things still manage to limp along, long after I would have expected a larger collapse.

              Collapse to me is a lessening of complexity and we are witnessing that now everywhere. Whether we get to face eating in the next decade i have no idea. Having kids i hope not but it is not up to me.

        • neil says:

          Lebanon and now Sri Lanka provide good case studies. You might argue that their economies are very different to larger Western economies, and this would be true.

          However, the solution adopted by all countries facing financial difficulties is the same- print money. Lebanon reached the limits of this in 2019. Sri Lanka, now out of foreign reserves, is face with the choice to print or not to print.

          Western economies have been printing like crazy since 2008, if not far earlier. Economies have grown in proportion to absorb this money, which is now feeding into everyday inflation. The day that price controls are announced in the country I live in, is the day I know that we are maybe no more than weeks away from collapse. This is because at that point, good will no longer be available. Price is no longer the problem, basic availability is.

      • Places that depend on the international trade of diesel are likely to be worst off, at first. In the US, the East (north of Georgia), is in particularly bad shape, because they don’t have refineries providing them with diesel. They tend to buy diesel on the international market. With the Europe refusing Diesel from Russia, this market is in dreadful shape. There are no substitutes.

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Runaway diesel prices threaten to do a lot more than make inflation worse—American infrastructure is at stake…

      “The average driver in the U.S. doesn’t rely on diesel, as it’s commonly used by truck drivers and heavy farming vehicles. But sky-high diesel prices could not only aggravate an inflation problem that is already hurting U.S. consumers—they could have dire implications for U.S. infrastructure, and the fate of the global supply chain.”

      https://fortune.com/2022/05/17/diesel-prices-threaten-inflation-us-infrastructure/

    • eKnock says:

      I think that might be a matter of hours.
      I worked in Dallas in 2017 when Hurricane Harvey hit Houston.
      When I came in to work at 7:00am, the boy in the kitchen said he heard that the gasoline pipeline from Houston to Dallas was shut down from the flooding and Dallas might run low on gasoline. I went to my office and checked the news and the possible disruption of gasoline was a top story.
      When I left work at 3:00pm, I stopped at the red light that is a block from the US75 freeway.
      The street is three lanes in each direction.
      When the light changed, I was in the right lane and it didn’t move. I thought there must be a wreck up ahead so I took to the middle lane to get around.
      When I got to the next light, I saw that all the stopped cars were lined up waiting to get into the gas station on the corner. Cars were backed up on a main 6-lane street in the panic that Dallas might run short on gas.
      If the word gets out that trucks aren’t running to Walmart, my guess is that the stores will be cleaned out in a day. Like scenes from Black Friday sales, chaos plus.

  26. Fast Eddy says:

    https://t.me/robinmg/19612

    Hahaha… I guess it didn’t occur to them that the CBs run the world — remember how they dumped Berlusconi and installed a former goldman sacks guy as dictator hahahha

    They do whatever they want…

  27. Fast Eddy says:

    Pathetic sad NZ – wouldn’t it be amusing if the guy turned out to be the buyer of these heavily discounted shares hahahaha https://www.odt.co.nz/business/milford-offloads-dgl-shares-after-nadia-lim-comments

    If so then I say Bravo… Bravo… women demand respect then they flaunt their ti ts in an investment doc… give me a break

  28. Fast Eddy says:

    mike…

    SOME OF OUR NEW ZEALAND VACCINE INJURED WHO SUSTAINED NEUROLOGICAL DAMAGE 9 OR MORE MONTHS AGO HAVE STILL NOT RECOVERED…

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1527162249554628609

  29. CTG says:

    I think I will minimize the links from ZH being posted here. I suggest you go to ZH daily and just browse the headlines to get a feeling on what is happening, as a counter balance for MSM (if you are still reading them). See how things progress from bad to worse and worst. At least you have some idea of what is happening.

  30. Fast Eddy says:

    DR PETER MCCULOUGH RIGHTLY STATES “THERE IS NO LONG TERM SAFETY DATA”.

    Yesterday the US FDA approved the Pfizer vaccine as a booster for 5 to 11 year olds…

    based on safety data of 1 month duration using 400 children who received the booster.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1526975622668591104

    But a lawyer told me vaccines seldom have long term side effects… (of course that’s cuz they were tested DUH….) Fast Eddy swims in an ocean of MOREONS… good think they don’t have sharp teeth

  31. Fast Eddy says:

    No way to unf789 a Pro Vaxxer – this is evidence of that… it’s generally a permanent state..

    But hey – she got to go to the pie shop when I couldn’t .. but now I can … but I don’t generally eat pies… but I could if I wanted to … and her… well she could … but I suspect that while in that condition she doesn’t move to far most days… maybe to the hospital from time to time…

    But hey – it could have been worse – imagine if she were to have contracted covid -oooh ventilators and all the jazz… she could have died… instead she’s just… f789ed up … surely she’ll get used to being f789ed and it will just be normal for her… not so bad … what dya reckon mikey?

    More Boosters… MORE… I want more fools to boost… boost boost boost

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1527162249554628609

  32. CTG says:

    Future historian (if there is a such a thing) finds is fascinating that humans of early second millennia committed mass suicide. According to historical records, a large majority of humans from large and advanced cities seemed to line up and take some of material that is intravenously injected into the body that caused the death. It is unknown why humans were doing that.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/mortality-among-white-collar-workers-jumped-24-percent-between-2020-and-2021-life-insurance#comment-stream

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I know why… cuz they are S______D.

      Look at norm mike – we’ve had 2 years to demonstrate to them that the injections are dangerous+useless….

      But they keep boosting.

      hahahahahaha….

    • MM says:

      OFW people know the folly of that phrase very well:
      “Tomorrow will be like today, just better”

      It is a plain simple stupid cargo cult.

  33. Fast Eddy says:

    TEENAGERS NEED TO “BELONG” AND BE SOCIALLY ACCEPTED MORE THAN ALMOST ANYTHING.

    This mother sustained major neurological damage from her vaccine. Her teen daughter was traumatised by watching her pain and her slow recovery.

    Now the same daughter wants to “take the jab” because she simply cannot cope with the lack of social cohesion and acceptance by her “pack”.
    \
    DO YOU HAVE TEENS WHO HAVE TAKEN THE VAX FOR THESE REASONS?

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1527159656140898305

    Stop making excuses for stooopidity

  34. CTG says:

    A quote from a comment by Norman “i don’t pretend to be an economic genius”

    Basically, humans are just too gullible when facing with “experts”

    It is the experts that brought all the mess we are in.

    “No one could see it coming”, “Alternatives will come when prices are high”, ” XXX data unexpectedly crashed lower”, “Safe and effective”

    We have not improved a single bit since the days of Galileo when the “experts” said that the earth revolved around the sun. Everyone believed. Any difference today?

    I seriously look down on those experts especially those who are involved in medicine (since 2020) and everything that came out from them, I distrust them (BMI, fats, what is healthy and what is not)

    There is no point to debate with anyone. The first question I will ask, if I am to debate – did you take the jab? Second question – do you believe in masks? If they cannot see that the jabs are dangerous and masks do nothing, then I don’t even want to acknowledge that person’s need to debate. It will be a waste of time. In fact, I would see “everything this person says or said, I will take it with a grain of salt”

    Coming back to the fact that 99% of the people here believe in the jab or the mask. It does not make a difference if magically they disappear or not, I am lonely.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Anyone who thinks the jabs are safe and effective – at this point — should be put down

    • the mess we are in has been created by humankind as a whole.

      we are too successful in our procreational habits–we enjoy sex and reproducing ourselves.

      ‘experts’ appear in various fields, but ultimately we do what we do best without expert help—ie eating and for nicating.

      we look to ‘experts’ to supply us with food, and ‘experts’ to supply medical care (just 2 examples)

      as a result, we eat too much and too many kids get born.

      you can add ‘expertise’ to any human activity–it will produce the same results.

      we became ‘expert’ engineers after we got hold of the steam engine—the world is now polluted and risks becoming uninhabitable–but we still go on demanding machines, no one is prepared to give them up.

  35. Adonis says:

    Back in the 80s Marion King Hubbert made the following statement in an interview “A non-catastrophic solution is impossible unless society is made stable” unfortunately the elders ran out of time and catastrophe is at our door that is why interest rates are now rising along with inflation and the depopulation agenda is well on its way we are now heading into what Hubbert called a catastrophic solution.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      I’m okay with a catastrophic solution, or something else.

      it is what it is.

      • drb753 says:

        you are not hard to please, David. It will be indeed catastrophic, or something else.

      • nikoB says:

        Either way David you won’t be able to return it if you are unhappy with it.

        I think you have a healthy attitude towards products of catastrophe.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      The Elders would have incinerated everyone over 65 … and paid people to abort babies … if they thought this would extend our planetary rampage…

      They would not think twice..

      TINA – therefore – we got TINA

  36. Fast Eddy says:

    Vast Swath of US at Risk of Summer Blackouts, Regulator Warns

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-18/vast-swath-of-us-is-at-risk-of-summer-blackouts-regulator-warns

    A mate of mine is a mandated out carpenter… and is onside with the energy story — he’s using his time to build the mother of all doomsday compounds… he sent me a photo yesterday of a massive rectangular hold in the ground — rebar reinforced concrete going in ….

    I didn’t have the heart to tell him about the ponds… he’s having fun! We all go through a phase of doomie prep when we become woke… Mr DNA demands it …

    I have another mate who is long crypto currencies — he believes that will save him … the old schoolers are long gold…

    Whatever keeps you sane I guess…

    Knowing takes a very strong mind to fend off the demons. They are everywhere when you know what is coming.

    Time for the song.. click play https://metatron.substack.com/p/covid-requiem-aeternam?s=r

    • Rodster says:

      The next time you and your doomie mate are chilling with some adult beverages. That would be a great time to bring up the spent fuel rods and then inform him of who is overseeing said, ponds. That’s right, none other than Joe Bidet’s “Pup Handler”.

      That should get him to finish his doomer compound in record time. 😜

      • Fast Eddy says:

        He lives north part of the island so won’t likely see him till he comes for ski season (if we make it to that)

  37. Fast Eddy says:

    Let’s go deeper into insanity

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/Ca1CCZIZJPXT/

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/B3gjWcfN1eaN/

    https://nationalfile.com/charges-dropped-against-man-filmed-in-brutal-beating-of-elderly-veteran/

    Do we all see why UEP is necessary? There will be loads of folks who will enjoy the brief period where they can indulge their most violent fantasies – without a cop or a soldier — impeding them.

    If you are one of these people then UEP failing is a gift (except that you will starve after you enjoy your run of rape and murder).

    Everyone else – repeat after me: Go Fauci Go… Go Fauci Go… Go Fauci Go…

  38. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    good news out of Ukraine.

    http://thesaker.is/sitrep-operation-z-nato-surrenders-in-azovstal/

    NATO Surrenders in Azovstal. ha ha ha.

    “I didn’t know English has so many ways to express a single message: the #Azovnazis have unconditionally surrendered.”

    “they’re being led straight into war criminal prison!”

    “These invincible heroes are emaciated, ragged, hungry and a pitiful sight.”

    the Azov NATZEEES have surrendered, well at least the ones who aren’t dead.

    less NATZEEES in the world.

    I Stand With Russia.

  39. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    good read, though long, an analysis of the vast technical details that would make it extremely difficult for the EU to ban Russian oil.

    http://thesaker.is/why-russias-oil-ban-is-impossible/

    Franz marries Natasha, ha ha.

    the EU is between a rock and a hard place.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      therefore, I think the EU will bluff their way out of this.

      a few of the smaller east EU countries will not vote for a Russian oil ban.

      then the bigger EU countries will “blame” those for not voting for the ban.

      it’s simplistic, but that probably wouldn’t stop the woketard psyyyco EU leaders from going for it.

      win/win.

    • Lastcall says:

      I like this part …
      .’ adapting an EU refinery to new types of oils is not an easy task. Every adaptation of a chemical plant or refinery or ore processing plant requires first a detailed laboratory knowledge of the new blend, and formal guarantees for its continuous delivery for decades, convoluted & lengthy contracts and procurement processes, extremely detailed engineering plans, manufacturing of parts, shipping, installation, testing, commissioning, optimization, permitting etc. etc. etc. before it can be declared “done”. Any element of this incomplete list, if missing, renders the whole affair a failure both technically and economically…’

      Wokesters going to be pushing their EV’s!

      Just bought my first Electric chainsaw ever!
      Used chainsaws (all Stihl) for years; amazing tools.
      Thought I had better invest now before Euro kamikaze and Chinese lockdowns remove the supply chain.
      I am greener than almost all the woksters around here with gardens, rainwater tanks, solar power and all, but I know what a sham it all is and they are left a little bewildered when I say its just a temporary phase that will end in tears.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        If they embrace the Dunce Kruger Effect they can skip all that complicated stuff

  40. Fast Eddy says:

    UN!!! https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/35746

    How they react if Fast Eddy were to use his time to suggest humans need to be exterminated because of the atrocities we commit on other animals? https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/35747

    Probly too much for them to handle — John Paul banned Fast Eddy for that – and he fancies himself a thinker.

    Another manifestation of VAIDS? https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/35757

    This can make sane people insane – if you are in the matrix this will be logical though https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/35758 right mike?

  41. Fast Eddy says:

    See why UEP is necessary … do you want this to be you? https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/35743

    They will do that to soften up your gnarly flesh… before they cook you…

  42. Fast Eddy says:

    Notice the flashing bright light (mobile phone?) in this … does it not create even more insanity? And trigger epileptic fits?

    https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/35737

  43. Fast Eddy says:

    Does this make you feel as if… you … are going … insane????

    https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/35737

    Sensory overload with insanity.

    It would be even worse if these were revealed to be actors doing this.

  44. Fast Eddy says:

    Shrreeeee lanka https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/35731

    • CTG says:

      Do I need to be triple vaccinated to enter Sri Lanka and watching it unfold?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Sri Lanka COVID rules for tourists – ivisa.com
        Also, they must take a PCR test a maximum of 3 days before heading to Sri Lanka and display the negative results. In case they are fully vaccinated, they don’t need to take the test. Visitors must complete an 8-day quarantine at a Certified Safe & Secure L1 hotel. In addition, they must take a PCR test on day 7.

        I love riots — and I bet the hotels are ultra cheap …I got a full suite in the Sofitel in Cairo during the mayhem for $140 / night… what opp-ulence! A lot of the action was just out back in the square and surrounding area so within walking distance… afternoon tea with scones followed by a riot.

        Can you get flights still – maybe a weekend up there before it all implodes would be a great addition to any bucket list.

        Bring a helmet and the best gas mask you can find in a hardware store – the one with the proper filter packs. Maybe a few gold coins in case you need to bribe someone to get out

  45. banned says:

    Thank you very much for the new article Gail!

    A commenter wrote here that they feel the inflation is not due to low interest rates but to supply shortages. I agree but I would like to add somthing. The premise in the mainstream seems to be that the goverment can create all the money they want and spend all they want and this is autonomous from inflation. I think this is ridiculous.

    What we are seeing is lack of confidence in the dollar. Yes I know where the DXY is. Debt has its value if it is based on real ability to pay in the real world. The reserve currency status has been badly abused and now were in quite the pickle in my opinion. The belief that the debt can be created indefinitely with no possibility of paying it back is so prevalent it borders on a extreme religious viewpoint.

    All along they have said well we will just inflate the debt away. Well here we are. Why are the economists not happy? That 30 trillion dollars debt will soon be worth two pizzas and a tank of gas.
    All is well yes?

    Except no one can earn the inflated cost of food and housing. salaries can not keep up with inflation. The employers can not stay in business and pay those wages.

    None of this was hard to forsee. Do any of those civilization building games have a reserve currency button? Then you just print money and all problems are solved. No food. Print money. No shelter. Print money. War. Print money. As stupid as that is do you see any group of politicians that refute that philosophy? A small minority? No.

    This money printing is a cult. This economics is a cult. And politicians are still pushing the print button. Worshiping it. Perhaps money printing is the anti christ?

    Now the chickens come home to roost. What will stop inflation from accelerating? A 3% interest rate? This is like a religious myth untested in times of resource depletion and 30 trillion dollars of debt. Economics as currently practiced is a very bad joke. Now people willing to work willing to be productive pay the price for the insane politicians debt reserve currency illusion that they are even now unwilling to admit and try to salvage some sort of system that coresponds to the physical world not a extreme delusion. Ah yes the great reset except China and Russia and probably the rest of the world dont want a new “dollar”. Why would they? They want a reliable trading unit represented in the physical world. If offered the Southern Hemisphere same Heresy. Saddam. Qaddafi. At some point it turned into a protection racket.

    Bretton Woods was created for a reason. Perhaps it had its flaws but coming out of WW2 there was a understanding fiat money printing always ends badly. Usually with a bunch of people dead in a war. Europe didnt forget. Why does the EU agreement state no creating money out of thin air? There were a bunch of ghosts from WW2 to remind them. But oh then nixon told bretton woods goodbye. Just a technicality. And 2008 rolled around. Gotta do what you gotta do. EU printed basically. And here we are again. You can burn three sticks of incense and chant for the dollar/euro. Maybe it will help?

    I dont think a 15% interest rate will bring inflation to 10% annually. But maybe burning some incense? Or bombing someone without good military technology. Thats the ticket.

    Crash and burn time folks. We had it all and p***** it away. Just a little fiat oxycontin recreationally.
    I wont end up like those ghosts. The politicians tossed productivity and went all in on the religon / protection racket. Some serious people are not paying. You know what that means. The ghosts will tell you if you dont know. Yea USA military got a little dirt on their face now. You think they dont know how to throw down? Your wrong. Listen the ghost whispers will tell you.

    • I think that this is a big part of the problem: “Economics as currently practiced is a very bad joke.”

      Economists don’t understand what is happening.

      The problem is that their lack of understanding spreads everywhere. Climate modelers use the same lack of understanding in building their models.

      Even people modeling EROEI do not understand how the economic system operates and how little relevance EROEI actually has to keeping the economy operating. The way I think of the situation is: High EROEI is necessary but not sufficient. It is necessary to keep the whole system operating. Quantity is terribly important. So is energy supply matching the needs of built devices. Governments also need to get their taxes from somewhere; traditionally that has been from high EROEI energy products. Green substitutes need to fill the tax gap. Further more, if the economy producing steel pipe and all of the other materials needed falls apart, it doesn’t matter whether the EROEI of a few inputs seems to be adequately high.

  46. Fast Eddy says:

    Let me just say .. I am ok with aborting humans at any age… just like we squash mosquitoes .. or roaches…..

    https://t.me/chiefnerd/3558

  47. Fast Eddy says:

    Do you feel you live in an insane world?

    Tesla removed from S&P 500 ESG Index, prompting Musk fury

    “S&P Dow Jones Indices has removed electric carmaker Tesla Inc from its widely-followed S&P 500 ESG Index, citing issues, including racial discrimination claims and crashes linked to its autopilot vehicles.

    The back-and-forth underscores the widening debate about the metrics used to judge corporate performance on environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues, a growing area of investing.”

    https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/tesla-removed-sp-500-esg-index-autopilot-discrimination-concerns-2022-05-18/

  48. Fast Eddy says:

    I suspect they are trying to drive us insane – they must have done research that shows insane people welcome extinction

    JUST IN — DHS is reportedly “pausing” its Disinformation Governance Board

    Washington Post reports “DHS decided to shut down the board, according to multiple people with knowledge of the situation. By Tuesday morning, Jankowicz had drafted a resignation letter in response to the board’s dissolution.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/05/18/disinformation-board-dhs-nina-jankowicz/

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