Why raising interest rates to reduce inflation may work out very badly

Are we headed for very high energy prices? Or, are we headed for a financial system that starts falling apart? The whole economic system may change remarkably. For example, what many people thought was money, or a promised pension plan, may not really be there when the time comes to get value from it. Shelves in stores may be empty when it comes time to make a purchase.

Most people do not understand that the world economy is a physics-based system, powered by energy. If the energy is suddenly much less available, there will be a huge problem. The world economy has been powered by a rapidly growing supply of energy for over 200 years.

Figure 1. World energy consumption by fuel based on Vaclav Smil’s estimates from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects (Appendix) together with data from BP’s 2011 Statistical Review of World Energy for 1965 and subsequent. Wind and solar are included in Biofuels.

My concern is that the current attempt to bring inflation down will lead to falling energy supply and a world economy that is rapidly changing for the worse.

Figure 2. Energy amounts for 2010 and prior equal to those in Figure 1, with a corresponding amount for 2020. Future energy for 2030, 2040 and 2050 are rough estimates based on the observation that the world is now reaching extraction limits for both coal and oil.

Everything I can see says that world leaders are not able to face the possibility that the world is already running seriously short of oil and coal. Future supplies are likely to be much lower, and much more expensive, if they are available at all. Other energy types (including natural gas, nuclear, hydroelectric, wind and solar) are simply add-ons to a system built using coal and oil.

Current world leaders do not realize that the energy situation is very much like the water level in Lake Mead. Looking at it from the top, there still seems to be water there but, in fact, the required depth is lacking. Water for watering crops will soon be exhausted. The world’s energy supply is not a whole lot different. The supposedly proven reserves do not tell us anything at all. It is the amount of fossil fuels that can be affordably extracted that is important. We have already exceeded the amount that can be affordably extracted. If central banks cut back future energy supplies using higher interest rates, we can expect to encounter major problems going forward.

In this post, I will try to explain some of the issues involved.

[1] The amount of energy the economy requires depends very much on population. The greater the world population, the more oil is needed for food production and transportation. Non-oil energy is a bit more flexible in quantity than oil, but the total quantity of energy per capita needs to keep rising to prevent very adverse outcomes.

Figure 3. World per capita energy consumption by source, with the 1950-1980 period of rapid growth highlighted. Amounts are equal to those used in Figure 1, divided by population estimates by Angus Maddison.

Figure 3 highlights the fact that the period of Rapid Energy Growth between 1950 and 1980 was a period of unprecedented growth in per capita energy consumption. This was a period when many families could afford their own car for the first time. There were enough employment opportunities that, quite often, both spouses could hold down paying jobs outside the home. It was the growing supply of inexpensive fossil fuels that made these jobs available.

If a person looks closely, it is possible to see that the 1920 to 1940 period was a period of very low growth in energy consumption, relative to population. This was also the period of the Great Depression and the period leading up to World War II. Sluggish energy consumption growth at that time was linked to very undesirable socioeconomic outcomes.

Energy is like food for the economy. If energy of the right kinds is cheaply available, it is possible to build new roads, pipelines and electricity transmission lines. World trade grows. If available energy is inadequate, major wars tend to break out and standards of living are likely to fall. We now seem to be approaching a time of too little energy, relative to population.

[2] Recently published data through 2021 indicates that energy consumption growth is not keeping up with population growth, similar to the situation of the 1930s. This says that the economy is doing poorly. Supply lines are broken; most jobs don’t pay well; many goods that normally would be available aren’t available.

Figure 4. World energy consumption per capita, based on information published in BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Figure 4 shows that the year with the highest per capita energy consumption was 2018. This agrees with other information such as automobile sales.

Figure 5. Auto sales by country, based on data of vda.de

For example, the number of automobiles sold seems to have peaked back in the 2018 period. China and India are both reporting fewer automobile sales recently. The economy was already sliding into recession in 2019. The 2020 shutdowns hid the very poor condition the world economy was already in. If people were forced to remain in their homes, they could not take to the streets to protest their poor wages and pension plans. The shutdowns helped give the impression the world economy was doing better than it really was.

Figure 4 shows that even with the bounce back in 2021, total energy consumption per capita is still below the 2018 and 2019 values. This contrasts with the situation that occurred after the 2008-2009 Great Recession. By 2010, per capita energy consumption was back above the 2007 and 2008 values.

[3] We can look back and see how rising interest rates were used to slow the world economy in the 2004 to 2006 period, and how different the economic situation was then compared to now. Even with the rapid growth the economy was making at the time of the interest rates increases, the result was still a deep recession in 2008-2009.

Figure 6. Figure similar to Figure 4 showing world energy consumption per capita, except that notation has been added with respect to the timing of increases in US Federal Reserve Target Interest Rates.

It is clear from Figure 4 and Figure 6 that between 2001 and 2007, the quantity of energy consumed per capita was rising rapidly. This was the period shortly after China was added to the World Trade Organization. Manufacturing was rapidly being moved to China. China’s demand for energy products of all kinds was rising rapidly. As a result of this greater demand, oil prices were increasing between 2001 and 2007. To try to reduce inflation, the Federal Reserve raised target interest rates in the 2004 to 2006 period and gradually brought them down, starting in late 2007.

There are two things that are striking about this earlier situation:

  1. The world economy (as shown by rising energy supply) was growing much more rapidly during the 2001 to 2007 period than it is in 2022. All the world economy is trying to do now is get back to where it was before the 2020 shutdowns, in terms of energy consumption per capita.
  2. Eventually, there was a bad reaction to the higher interest rates of 2004 to 2006, but this did not come until 2008-2009. This was a much longer lag than most people would expect.

Now, in 2022, we cannot get energy consumption per capita up to the 2018 and 2019 levels. There are many unfinished automobiles, waiting for missing parts. Appliances of many kinds are not available without a long wait. Fertilizer is often not available. Broken supply lines leave many store shelves empty. It is not that demand is unusually high; it is the supply of the energy products we need to grow food and to transport many finished goods that is not available.

Raising interest rates is a way to reduce the demand for finished goods and services, such as automobiles and appliances, if the world economy is growing very rapidly, as it was back in the 2001 to 2007 period. If the problem is an inadequate supply of finished goods and services (due to broken supply lines and low wages for workers), then raising interest rates is entirely the wrong medicine. It will cause even fewer automobiles and appliances to be made. It will cause many current workers to be laid off. Such an approach, when the world is trying to deal with too few workers, will tend to make the situation worse, rather than better.

[4] The trend in fossil fuel supplies is concerning. Both oil and coal are past peak, on a per capita basis. World coal supply has been lagging population growth since at least 2011. While natural gas production is rising, the price tends to be high and the cost of transport is very high.

Most energy charts are similar to Figure 7, showing energy consumption on a total product supplied basis, without reference to the size of the population using those resources.

Figure 7. Total quantity of oil, coal and natural gas supplied based on information published in BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Figure 7 indicates that coal supplies are, in some sense, the most troubled of the three types of fossil fuels. In the 2001 to 2007 period, China was able to ramp up its manufacturing using coal, but eventually those supplies ran short. In fact, coal supplies around the world started running short. Instead of telling us about the shortfall in production, we started hearing a story that sounds a lot like The Fox and the Grapes of Aesop’s Fables: Coal is a horribly polluting fuel which we don’t really want anyhow.

To understand how these quantities correspond to the world’s rising population, it is helpful to look at consumption divided by population, shown in Figure 8.

Figure 8. Oil, coal and natural gas energy consumption per capita, based on data in BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Figure 8 shows that oil consumption per capita was relatively stable up until 2019. Then, it suddenly dropped in 2020, and it has not been able to fully recover from that drop in 2021. In fact, we know that as oil production has tried to increase in 2022, its price has risen further. Of the years shown, 2004 was the year with the highest oil consumption per capita. That was back at the time that “conventional” oil production peaked.

Figure 8 shows that the peak production of coal, relative to world population, was in the year 2011. Now, in 2022, the least expensive coal to extract has been depleted. World coal consumption has fallen far behind population growth. The big drop-off in coal availability means that countries are increasingly looking to natural gas as a flexible source of electricity generation. But natural gas has many other uses, including its use in making fertilizer and as a feedstock for many herbicides, pesticides, and insecticides. The result is that there is more demand for natural gas than can easily be supplied.

[5] Governments and academic institutions have gone out of their way to avoid telling the world how important energy of the right types and in the right quantities is to the economy.

Politicians cannot admit that the world economy cannot get along without the right quantities of energy that match the needs of today’s infrastructure. At most, a small amount of substitution is possible, if all the necessary transition steps are taken. Each transition step requires energy of various kinds. For example, a small amount of intermittent wind can be added to the fossil-fuel generated electricity supply, if care is taken to ramp up fossil-fuel generated electricity to offset the lack of wind when there is a shortfall in supply. Otherwise, battery or other storage is needed for the wind energy until the wind energy is truly needed by the system.

Thus, most people today are convinced that the economy doesn’t need energy. They believe that the world’s biggest problem is climate change. They tend to cheer when they hear that fossil fuel supplies are being shut down. Of course, without energy of the right kinds, jobs disappear. The total quantity of goods and services produced tends to fall very steeply. In this situation, there is likely not enough food for all the people in the world. War is likely to break out over limited resources.

[6] Once the economy starts heading downward, it is not clear that the economy can ever “catch itself” and start back on an upward path again, even for a short while.

Back in 2001, the World Economy was able to get a “bail out” from China’s rapid growth in coal production, but as we have seen, world coal production is no longer growing as fast as population.

Back in about 2010 and 2011, growth in US crude oil from shale formations was able to temporarily bail out world oil supply, but now this is also failing. Also, even the recent “growth” shown is to a significant extent from the completion of “drilled but uncompleted” wells started earlier. Eventually, there are no more “DUCs” to complete.

Figure 9. EIA chart showing US Field Production of Crude Oil through June 24, 2022.

In fact, despite all of the supposed high reserves of many kinds around the world, there is little evidence that the Middle East, or anywhere else, can actually raise production much higher.

Once the economy starts shrinking, debt defaults are likely to become a big problem. Banks will find their balance sheets impaired. They may be forced to close. Citizens with deposits may find that only part of their balance is available to spend.

Government programs will necessarily be forced to cut back to match the energy supplies that are available. For example, if road paving material is not available, roads cannot be repaved. If fuel cannot be found for school buses, students may need to learn at home.

Governments at all levels have promised pension plans. In fact, many employers have promised pension plans. Without a growing supply to cheap-to-produce energy, these promises are meaningless. Somehow, governments will find it necessary to cut back on their promises. Perhaps, Social Security and Medicare programs will be handed back to US States to fund, to the extent that the states have funds for these programs. Governments around the world can expect to face similar problems.

With less energy supply available, the whole world economy that we know today seems likely to start falling apart. Fewer goods will be available through international trade. It is cheap energy that has allowed today’s economy to function. Once this cheap energy is depleted, the world economy will need to shrink back in many ways, at once.

We don’t really know precisely what lies ahead, and perhaps, this lack of knowledge is for the best. We cannot even imagine a world economy changing rapidly for the worse.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,945 Responses to Why raising interest rates to reduce inflation may work out very badly

  1. Fast Eddy says:

    Are the C-19 unvaccinated ‘more’ or ‘less’ susceptible to contracting severe disease from avian influenza and monkeypox?

    https://www.voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org/scientific-blog/q-a-14-are-the-c-19-unvaccinated-more-or-less-susceptible-to-contracting-severe-disease-from-avian-influenza-and-monkeypox

    What advice could one offer to vaccinees in the event that an immune escape Sars-CoV-2 variant adapts to the highly vaccinated population such as to enable high infectiousness combined with high virulence?

    https://www.voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org/scientific-blog/q-a-17-what-advice-could-one-offer-to-vaccinees-in-the-event-that-an-immune-escape-sars-cov-2-variant-adapts-to-the-highly-vaccinated-population-such-as-to-enable-high-infectiousness-combined-with-high-virulence

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Bought some compost today — a scoop was $59 bucks… I said to the guy – big rise in price – I think I paid $45 in the spring… yep that’s correct.

      What cannot continue – will stop.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      According to the article:

      In my opinion, there can be no doubt that ‘C-19 pandemic-experienced’ C-19-unvaccinated people are much less susceptible to severe disease from avian influenza and monkeypox. This is because they got an opportunity to train their cell-mediated innate immunity (i.e., NK cells) during the pandemic. . . It is, therefore, reasonable to assume that NK cells from Coronavirus-experienced, unvaccinated people will be well prepared to also tackle orthopox viruses.

  2. Tim Groves says:

    I just read this. I couldn’t confirm it with the Beeb though.

    LONDON (AP) — Prime Minister Boris Johnson has agreed to resign, his office said Thursday, ending an unprecedented political crisis over his future that has paralyzed Britain’s government.

    An official in Johnson’s Downing Street office confirmed the prime minister would announce his resignation later. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because the announcement had not yet been made.

    Johnson had rebuffed calls by his Cabinet to step down in the wake of ethics scandals. He gave in after more than 40 ministers quit his government and told him to go.

    It was not immediately clear whether Johnson would stay in office while the Conservative Party chooses a new leader, who will replace him as prime minister.

    Minutes before the news broke, Treasury chief Nadhim Zahawi called on Prime Minister Boris Johnson to resign just 36 hours after Johnson put him in the job, while another newly appointed Cabinet minister quit her post.

    Zahawi said Johnson knew “the right thing to do” was to “go now.”

    • Tim Groves says:

      Let’s toast Johnson—a valiant man, a man of courage bold…

      Stand I will, said Johnson, as long as ever I can
      For I was never in all my life afraid of any man…..

      …..the finest butcher that ever the sun shone on!

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Beeb’s paralyzed… I doubt he’ll get back to you

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      We noticed articles about Boris Johnson resigning here, this morning, as well. Not a big surprise.

  3. Fast Eddy says:

    J’ACCUSE! THE SPIKE ANTIBODY/FC-RECEPTOR COMPLEX IS SOURCE OF SEVERE COVID AND THE INDUCTION OF SYSTEMIC AUTOIMMUNE DISEASE: ONE SIDE OF THE AUTOIMMUNE/AMYLOIDOSIS SARS-CoV-2 COIN – AND IT WAS KNOWN!

    Paper Published Feb 2020 by Shi Zhengli (clearly written before pandemic appeared) as Smoking Gun

    https://wmcresearch.substack.com/p/jaccuse-the-spike-antibodyfc-receptor

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This is quite an important article, I expect. Shi Zhengli already knew the adverse way the spike protein worked, back before the pandemic became headlines.

      • Student says:

        I fully agree with you

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Walter’s Linkedin profile — he dropped another very good article a few days back…

        Interesting that he and Igor Chudov – who are not scientists… have busted open some Pulitzer quality articles on CovCON.

        Medical Research. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0306987721000207 and published opinion with Nobel Laureate Luc Montagnier https://www.francesoir.fr/opinions-tribunes/le-sars-cov2-accelererait-lage-biologique.

        W M Chesnut Development founder, Walter Chesnut, has been in the web development and marketing communications industries for over two decades. He brings a keen knowledge of marketing strategy and internet resourcefulness to our clients. Mr. Chesnut has also been very active in print, running ad campaigns and developing catalogs for a wide range of clientele from software companies to soap. In 1998 he converted the Springfield, MA, based The Catholic Observer from paste up to complete digital production in a week. Mr. Chesnut was responsible for developing the Ecommerce site for Crabtree & Evelyn, Ltd., as well as informational sites for Massachusetts General Hospital.

  4. Fast Eddy says:

    I’m happy to report that my remarks on lower case rates in lesser-vaccinated East Germany, after being recycled by BILD, are now the subject of a long state media debunking in Tagesschau.

    Why Are Case Rates Lower in the East? ask mentally vacant problem glasses science reporter Anna Behrend and official state media man-bun sporting “fact-finder” Pascal Siggelkow.

    https://www.eugyppius.com/p/vaxsplainers

    • MM says:

      I saw CCTV of the explosion but there was no CCTV of placing the device.
      I saw no police investigations about acts of doomestic terrorism (explosive device!)

      Maybe a very very long term timer or remote control.
      With a plutonium battery? Should leave a trace if not aleready leveled in a hurry.
      Or a drone strike. But I think it would be difficult to do that in US air space, although…

  5. Fast Eddy says:

    It’s almost as if the German govt is allowing this to happen.. hmmm… https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/37203

    Beyond Mathematical Odds – “The fire rises”
    It is revolt season !

    The signs of an energy crunch have been out there for months, building up and any minor tipping point would send things into literal collapse. Russia cutting the flow of gas by a large margin was such a tipping point. Both my Energy Crunch posts will give you enough background information and analysis to understand this.

    Germany’s industry is basically on the verge of a literal collapse, which will lead the rest of the entire continent to one, via contagion.

    https://hiddencomplexity.substack.com/p/beyond-mathematical-odds-the-fire

    • oh no, it’s contagion in the Core.

      the Davos Men have brought this contagion upon themselves, and it is not surprising, since they are a bunch of ageing olde fhart woketards.

      it can be hoped that this contagion will not spread to the most important part of the Core which is the USA.

      but at least some consequences are bound to hit home.

      there seems to be no possibility of a course correction, as Europe has hit the Russian iceberg.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      People start reacting to these strange policies, eventually. Citizens need to eat. Cutting off food cannot be a rational policy.

      The article on Hidden Complexity has a good enumeration of a large number of energy-related problems. It starts out,

      “Germany’s industry is basically on the verge of a literal collapse, which will lead the rest of the entire continent to one, via contagion.”

      He then moves on to

      China Allows Refiners to Export 40% Less Fuel Than a Year Ago

      Five million tons of quota awarded to refiners in latest batch
      Beijing not interested in ramping up exports to meet demand
      China issued its latest batch of fuel export quota for the year, but total allowances are still around 40% less than the same point in 2021.

  6. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Looks like the airports have been shut down by Dutch farmers.
    https://twitter.com/jonniegg/status/1544656586949410816

  7. ivanislav says:

    Humanity may yet pull another rabbit out of that hat: breeder reactors, ultra-deepwater drilling, or perhaps something more exotic – we just need a single source to pan out in the next 10 years. Party on!

    • CTG says:

      Very optimistic although not realistic

    • or perhaps something more mundane, like the recent history of smaller weaker countries losing the ability to consume commodities.

      if the Periphery countries continue to accelerate their pattern of collapse, three or four or five per year for the next 10 years…

      then the Core has a higher % of global resources to use for their own benefit.

      someone once said that life is not fair.

      it isn’t.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      We really need it now, not 10 years from now.

      • ivanislav says:

        Well I’m afraid I’m busy right now and the world will have to wait! If you guys don’t figure it out by 2030, I’ll spend a few months developing free energy and solve all of humanity’s problems… I will of course need some funding from all of you first 🙂

      • ivanislav says:

        More seriously though, Dennis Coyne at peakoilbarrel predicts fairly stable conventional oil for the next decade. It seems possible (not saying probable) – we’ve had under-investment due to the pandemic and so there is probably some global capacity that can be brought online, still.

        https://peakoilbarrel.com/decline-in-world-conventional-oil-output-and-peak-oil/
        See his comment below the main article at “04/27/2022 at 9:26 am”

        • nice graphs, he forecasts stable oil production into the early 2030s.

          of course, we can see the big dip in the graphs in 2020, from obvious causes, which he surely DID NOT predict in his graphs in 2019.

          he, and no one, can “forecast” any such future dips, as the cause of such a dip is largely in the Black Swan category.

          he seems to be coming from purely an oil production perspective, and can’t incorporate any possible huge downturns in global economic activity.

          YES there seems to be good oil supply capacity into the early 2030s, but that stable supply implies stable global economic activity, and such economic activity is far from certain through the 2020s, as even 2022 looks to be on shaky ground, with recession already here, and a good chance of severe global recession in the near future.

  8. It is like Finns have got a death wish – which might just come true if they keep pushing their luck….

    > The Russian Foreign Ministry warned Sweden and Finland on Wednesday about the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) accession process, stressing that they will meet Russia’s response.

    According to the communique, by joining NATO, both countries allowed the alliance to involve them in a “geopolitical game against Russia.” The accession, said the ministry, will narrow the possibility for a peaceful dialogue in the Baltic region, complicating more the situation.

    The remarks come after Finland and Sweden signed the official protocol to join the alliance. “This is a good day for Finland and Sweden and a good day for NATO,” said Jens Stoltenberg at the time.

    https://www.teletrader.com/sweden-finland-will-meet-russia-s-response-moscow/news/details/58181604

    > Finland has seized nearly a thousand freight cars belonging to Russian companies as a result of European Union sanctions, according to Finnish state-owned rail operator VR and a letter from Russia’s rail monopoly seen by Reuters.

    As Finland’s VR moved to reduce railway traffic with Russia after the EU sanctioned Russian coal supplies in April, 865 rail cars from Russia were seized by bailiffs, according to the June 6 dated letter from Russian Railways to the Ministry of Transport.

    https://www.euronews.com/2022/07/06/us-ukraine-crisis-finland-russia-railways

    > Finnish President Sauli Niinisto has signed a government proposal to transfer about EUR 21.5 million in defense assistance to Ukraine. It is reported by European Pravda with reference to Yle.
    This is the seventh cargo of Finnish defense assistance for Ukraine. The country’s Defense Ministry has not disclosed more detailed content and dispatch schedules to ensure the assistance is safely delivered to Ukraine.

    “I would say this is a significant aid package,” commented Miikka Pynnonen, Special Advisor to the Minister of Defence of Finland.

    https://ukranews.com/en/news/867248-finland-approves-transfer-of-defense-assistance-to-ukraine-for-more-than-eur-20-million

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      It almost seems like Finland has a death wish. Why not leave Ukraine and Russia alone?

      • Evidently they cannot behave themselves because, and I quote:

        “What’s wrong with the cauldron tactic with artillery grinding it to dust? Virtue signaling without the sanctimonious hypocrisy is synonymous with rubbing it in. Salty stuff for MOARon princesses and Tryhard princes.”

        That sounds very much like a death wish.

        • Kowalainen says:

          “Misfortunes” of various sort can turn the sweetest guy a bit ‘cranky’ and ‘burning’, statistically speaking. If you catch my drift, so to speak. 😉

          But don’t get me wrong; within temptation still is truth.

          And grief is a much more powerful drug when the consequences of ignoring survival instincts is clearly understood a priori.

          Man that 180mm rotor…
          Just sayin.
          🙂

          • Stop violating and killing those oats, you sanctimonious hypocrite. And stop molesting reindeer for a ‘living’, and respect their basic dignity – and your own.

            If Finland gets itself invaded, then I suspect that the rest of the world will be more concerned with still getting the wheat from Russia than whether you survived.

            Yes, our vegetables mean more to us than you do, push come to shove. Go figure. So stop assuming that you have more ‘value’ to the world, let alone to the cosmos, than healthy grass in the field.

            Yes, I care about you getting violated about as much as I care about a reindeer or a blade of grass… not that much, truth be told. And let us not even start on how health confers ‘value’, which really would raise questions about what on earth you are even on about.

            So if you want to stop violating and exploiting other species, then just off yourself mate, no one really cares any more than they care about your ridiculous ‘diet’….or about your personal ‘pain and suffering’.

            Yes, the world is a hard place, and virtue signalling just gets on people’s nerves…. even those who will still have a healthy nervous system at the end of the day,

            and who do not need to eat bowls of oats everyday to anesthetise it… so you may as well get over that one, and learn to simply cope with your own situation in a dignified, non-aggressive, non-spiteful way.

            No one can do that for you, so either learn to ‘fly’… or don’t… no really cares, but maybe you should? I get it, you hate the world, and you hate life, and for obscure reason you seem to imagine that has anything to do with me… it don’t.

          • Kow

            When someone isnt a native English speaker—(and I do admire your English language skill btw)

            I always make allowances for nuances and subtleties of meaning that get lost.

            But sometimes I do wish i could figure out what you are going on about

            • Kowi the surrealist Laplander who messes with English like Dali messed with canvas.

              most people are mostly literal.

              Salvador Kowi is an icy cool arctic breeze.

              munch the pedals and crunch the oats!

              it is what it is.

            • well i always grant that Kow’s english is infinitely better than my Sami

              In fact i was wondering if i learned Sami–would i get better presents at Christmas?

            • Kowalainen says:

              “munch the pedals and crunch the oats!”
              Damnit David, it’s “crank the oats”. ☝️

              I’m aiming for surreal realism sloped down with bad English. FE already cauldroned the hysterical realism schtick, so I’m out of luck there.

              Yes it is surreal entertainment for rapacious primates to feel better about themselves.

              If the Finns and Lapps get pummeled, well, at least they get access to the russkie spigots and oats.

              And claiming those wretched places as your home turf is locking up yourself in the loonie asylum.

              https://youtu.be/s_3Yp2Izhks

      • Rodster says:

        Why not leave Ukraine and Russia alone? Because the US military industrial complex along with NATO would have something to say about that.

      • Remember Finland sided with Germany in WWII! Some never learn…
        One thing they did right was not attack Russia during the conflict and Leningrad had no bombardment on their side…Stalin noted that and was lenient on them during it’s aftermath for their reserve.
        Maybe, they will do the same now and play it smart

  9. qdlwkkfjb
    Wet My Beak says:

    The rotting anus of the world, sad new Zealand, may soon be back to lockdowns although the donkey prime minister is being somewhat cautious.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-omicron-outbreak-the-front-page-how-bad-would-second-wave-have-to-be-for-nz-to-go-back-in-red/G3JREKC7BATGCCP2LMP75ZD62Q/

    Life has become unbearable here for many and those that can’t get out are committing suicide in droves.

    Indian and Cambodian immigrants more and more control access to food supplies and they are hiking prices with gay abandon. All small food shops are controlled by these ethnic groups.

    Once again the horror of diversity plays out and real Kiwis are going hungry.

    • ivanislav says:

      Kiwis are getting exactly what they voted for.

    • monk
      monk says:

      I live in New Zealand. Yes there are issues, no it’s nothing like as bad as Wet My Beak is saying. The lockdowns were clearly ill-advised and have caused a lot of damage, but the country isn’t ruined like this racist bigot is trying to say

      • CTG says:

        Everyone can have an opinion on OFW. Fortunately/Unfortunately, a large majority of commenters here have a birth defect – that is they can use their brain to decide (not mass formation). So, we know it is bad but not that bad but it is good to hear from every side. After all, like I have said many times here…. things are strange… Sri Lanka is always having 1 day of fuel reserve.

        Now, I don’t know what it means by “half a day of reserve”? Does it really matter one day or half a day?

        • Fast Eddy says:

          I live in NZ but am not from NZ (kinda like dying with or from Covid — there’s a difference) so I am highly qualified to opine on the country.

          Whatever Wet Beak says understates the issues… remember – we have a former DJ whose husband deals drugs https://www.topinfoguide.com/breaking-news/is-it-true-clarke-gayford-is-on-home-arrest-again/ If in doubt – they were to be wed but lockdown hit — so it was postponed…

          Lockdown has been over since March… where’s my invitation Donkey Face? I was hoping to do some lines in the sh&tter with Clarke..

          The only good thing about NZ is the plough hogs… the giant land whales that compete in the competitions dragging 250kg ploughs through mud —- it is a sight to behold… bucket list stuff… Big Fat Slobs grunting and the crowd going wild shouting Sooo Eeeeee!! SOOOO EEEEEE!

          Think Kentucky Derby but without much prize money…

          Everyone is of course proud of the All Black Rugby Team … a class act these fellas — they made this guy their team captain hahahaha – makes total sense!

          Disgraced All Black Aaron Smith speaks for first time after toilet scandal
          https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/85058999/aaron-smiths-partner-asks-for-privacy

          Here they ridicule the NFL …but if you ask why the All Black Players don’t walk in and take those 25M (USD) per year salaries (some players make more than entire team) they have nothing to say…

          Of course they don’t cuz their super star Aussie MVP tried — too slow https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/concerns-jarryd-hayne-may-not-be-fast-enough-to-land-running-back-spot-in-nfl/news-story/d76f19570d86362c80925acf40c34eaa

          Anyway — trust Beak — he’s departing NZ cuz it’s So Sad… I wish I could leave too… got my passport now … why am I paying all these taxes when the govt spends 10x its tax revenue on Covid Booster campaigns?

          This is also a 3rd world level corrupt country — Councils remind me of how things work in Guinea Bissau… or Congo… backhanders all over the place — the don’t actually pass $$$ instead they scratch backs — we’ll help you get your zoning to turn the pasture into a housing development and you let me roger you big fat wife once a year + sell my son a couple of lots at half price that he can flip …

          I’d like to get in on this but I am told you need to be inbred with one of the original families that came off the Mayflower (apparently the US rejected these low IQ MOEONS so the Mayflower sailed for NZ cuz no rules)

          You know the movie Idiocracy? This is worse… far worse…

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Here’s another thing I just learned the other day … in NZ until recently many of the houses were not required to be insulated… yep — no insulation … I know what OFWers are thinking … NZ is where the Idiocracy started… the genesis…

        But wait… it gets better!!!

        When they finally passed new regulations … apparently the government only required relatively minimal insulation …. so that even new houses… are still cold on very chilly days… and they use more energy to keep them heated..

        This is what happens when the best and brightest.. is a former DJ.

    • i thought the anus of the world was tasmania

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Is there an online betting site that allows one to bet on a new lockdown?

      Loads of CovIDIOTS have gone on international holidays… how cool would it be if they reinstituted the quarantines haha…. they’ll be waiting years to get spots!!!

      We need those hospital ICUs to do this — so we can get another full on lockdown

      https://youtu.be/lhbHTjMLN5c

  10. Fast Eddy says:

    Holy F789 – here’s that Canadian comedian who pushed the shots… then ended up in hospital after his booster and is now dead — spitting venom at Pfizer before he departed https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/37202

    Nick F789ed himself!!! Of course cause of death unknown hahahahahahaha

  11. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    The Netherlands is becoming a dictatorship:

    Check out the clips from this twitter feed:
    https://twitter.com/markdehollander

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Europe seems to be in very bad shape. It needs something else to hide its energy problems.

      • CTG says:

        All these riots, unrest, protest, abuse of power, corruption, flip-flopping happened before in the final days of any empire or civilization

  12. Fast Eddy says:

    Dani Richards
    7 hr ago
    Liked by Andreas Oehler
    People’s minds have been twisted into pretzels. If logic is too painful, then do an ostrich.

    What my employer quite assuredly and testily told me last November (just before the boosters rolled out, and right around the time shots for 5-11yo were authorized) — when I was summoned because I had failed to respond to their “disclose your vaccination status” survey:

    “I have a friend who is an ER doctor, and he tells me that the hospital is full of unvaccinated people.”

    Therefore, it must be true — right?

    Thankfully, my employer does not mandate, but I am the only one unjabbed. I said, it’s contraindicated for me. I simply can’t take it. I might die. or have anaphylaxis.

    Fast forward to now, and many triple and quadruple-jabbed employees have a variety of health issues, including COVID.

    Interestingly, HR has gone silent and is no longer urging people to take boosters. The CDC posters are also coming down — the ones that urge social distancing, masking and doing your part to stop the spread by shooting up with experimental nanoparticles.

    A few people still voluntarily wear the mask, but it is no longer required.

    The office policy now is “say nothing — go about your business — do not ask anyone who is wearing a mask why ” — it’s the weirdest thing. Almost like COVID never existed, and/but we are not allowed to talk about it: FORBIDDEN TOPIC.

    • monk
      monk says:

      Fast Eddy quite frankly I’m surprised you manage to hold down employment with the amount of time you spending spamming this site

      • CTG says:

        FE is enjoying his last days of life on earth. Carpe Diem

        • monk doesn’t realize that the CEP is happening right now, and nothing can stop it.

          • CTG says:

            Davidinabillionyears… are you a believer in UEP or CEP ?? Ithought you want to go past 2030 only?

            • the CEP is the most brilliant idea in the history of ideas.

              TPTB are doing everything they can to suppress the truth of the CEP.

              insiders say that the CEP was the #1 topic at the recent Davos summit.

              the UEP is a sort of false flag idea that has been proposed to deflect from the imminent engagement of the CEP.

              isn’t it all too obvious?

          • monk
            monk says:

            @davidinamonthorayearoradecade I’ve never heard of CEP or UEP before. What do they stand for?

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Harry has vapourized so we only have Michael to rely for doom news… Fast is monitoring Telegram and SSs on behalf of OFW and posting the key stuff.

          Whiners are born to whine…

          https://townsquare.media/site/142/files/2013/06/man-crying-istock.jpg

          Which means … MORE FE Posts … MORE More more… since we can’t have more oil — let’s have More Fast Eddy… stay tuned. Perhaps more calls to Pharmacists????

          Who wants more calls?

          • lidiaseventeen
            lidiaseventeen says:

            That call was brilliant.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Let’s see if more of these can be organized… hey norm can we get the contact for your injection clinic — when you eventually get vax-wrecked… we’ll be able to cite a name … I can hear it now — ‘my mate norm had 12 shots and he said he was never warned this could happen – in fact he was bragging about how safe and effective they are… now norm (our mate) is completely f789ed — neuro degenerative disease… he can only mumble something about more….

              Anyhow – why did you tell him 12 times that the side effects would be minor – sore shoulder and so on’…. might be hard not to start laughing … but maybe think of Celine Dion .. with her spasms … in a bikini.. Euuuuu

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Between this and substacks Fast Eddy’s days are full … HE should be paid Big Bucks for this stuff.

        Fast’s people are in touch with Gail’s people to work out the split on the pay per view coming soon to OFW — we’re thinking USD9999 per year to view the articles and Fast’s comments

        There would be a free option for fans of norm and mike… you will always be able to view their comments without paying or registering …. We don’t want to alienate all 3 of you

        Stay tuned for updates .

  13. Fast Eddy says:

    And if you have been vaccinated, you can stop wearing the mask? And then a slew of “breakthrough” infections started pouring in? Then the authorities changed the tune and told you to put your masks back on, because the jabs don’t protect you from catching the virus or getting sick? Just a short 3 months or so later? But the jabs still did a marvelous job at keeping you out of the hospital? Then the hospitals and cemeteries started filling up with fully vaccinated? Well, now a booster 6 months or a year later would save the day and extend your lease on life for the next 6 months? Then the reports started coming from Israel that the protection of boosters is waning much faster than the original jabs?

    Then the reports started coming from the UK that the “protection” turns “negative” after 6 months post primary “vaccination” and 3-4 months after a booster?

    https://live2fightanotherday.substack.com/p/exposing-mass-formation-messages

    https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F33f829a7-8d0e-48a5-af5c-88d04db496d4_860x448.png

  14. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    UK Grid Turns Screws on Industry to Cut Winter Gas Use

    (Bloomberg) — Britain’s grid operator is set to crank up the pressure on big energy users, taking a more forceful stance on curbing their natural gas consumption as it tries to head off the threat of fuel shortages.

    National Grid Plc is meeting with regional gas network companies on Thursday to discuss how to get more factories and businesses to cut consumption this winter. With companies reluctant to voluntarily step up, the grid managers will examine new incentives to reduce their gas use, according to documents published ahead of the meeting.

    The grid operator is seeking to sharpen its tools for saving gas this winter in case Russia turns off flows to Europe. Plans have already been rolled out to keep a reserve of coal plants online if gas supplies to power plants are curbed. Getting large industrial users to agree to conserve fuel could be key in avoiding disruptions to households.
    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/uk-grid-turns-screws-on-industry-to-cut-winter-gas-use-1.1788323#:~:text=(Bloomberg)%20%2D%2D%20Britain's%20grid%20operator,the%20threat%20of%20fuel%20shortages.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Interesting times!

  15. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Asia HY index breakdown

    China’s non-property & India HY are the most hit by rising rates

    Indian rupee is falling apart everyday
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FW-4OXTXwAEllaA?format=jpg&name=900×900

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I wonder how the higher interest rates are hitting the auto market?

      When I was in Canada so long ago — I was speaking to a BMW dealer and asked about financing terms there… they were in line with mortgage financing rates… that was a surprise…

      I asked him how they could be so low on a depreciating asset — he said — if they weren’t so low our sales would fall off a cliff…

      Hmmmm…..

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Way too many parts of the world with major problems!

  16. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Yield curve collapses further in negative territory

    Bond markets price in more space to hike rates
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FW_RKGeXkAEPJ5l?format=jpg&name=medium

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This doesn’t look good. I notice that the Euro is down to 1.0185 to the US dollar. Lots of things are going wrong.

  17. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Because of the energy crisis: Augsburg even wants to switch off traffic lights

    “The situation is serious,” says Augsburg’s mayor about the energy crisis in Germany. The city faces enormous energy costs. That’s why Bavaria’s third largest city wants to reduce energy consumption as much as possible. There are hardly any taboos.

    In Augsburg they have been calculating feverishly in the last few days. And the result was frightening for the city leaders: According to the current status, the annual costs for electricity, natural gas , district heating and other energy services would increase from around 15.9 million euros to around 28.3 million euros for the current year. “That corresponds to an increase of almost 80 percent!” It says in a letter from the city. “The situation is serious,” says Mayor Eva Weber (CSU). A crisis management team for energy supply was set up under the direction of the Economics Officer.

    Even traffic lights should be switched off
    Now savings should apparently be made where savings can be made – also so that enough energy is available for the economy, according to Weber: “This also secures jobs.” From now on, the facade lighting on historic buildings and the municipal museums will be switched off. Fountains would be switched off completely, with the exception of the three magnificent fountains of the UNESCO World Heritage. The Magic of Lights in the Botanical Garden: cancelled.

    The street lighting is dimmed, even switching off traffic lights is checked. The city and the police are currently discussing which traffic lights are relevant to safety and which can be switched off.
    https://www-br-de.translate.goog/nachrichten/bayern/wegen-energiekrise-augsburg-will-sogar-ampeln-ausschalten,TAkPBig?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Ban on EVs coming?

      hahahahahahaha!!!!!!!

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        People can have EVs. They just can’t charge them.

    • I was in Augsburg long long ago..beautiful place….can see this occurring elsewhere

      After Neuss, Trier, Cologne and Xanten, Augsburg is one of Germany’s oldest cities, founded in 15 BC by the Romans as Augusta Vindelicorum, named after the Roman emperor Augustus.

      Fugger and Welser monopolies
      Augsburg’s economic boom years occurred during the 15th and 16th centuries thanks to the bank and metal businesses of the merchant families Fugger and Welser. These families held a near total monopoly on their respective industries.[citation needed] In the 16th century Augsburg became one of Germany’s largest cities. Augsburg was a major manufacturing center for textiles, armor, scientific instruments, as well as gold- and silver-smithing. The prolific printers of Augsburg also made the city the largest producer of German-language books in the Holy Roman Empire. Like other free imperial cities, Augsburg was an independent entity, and had authority over its tax policies.[15]

      Augsburg’s wealth attracted artists seeking patrons. The city rapidly became a creative centre for sculptors and musicians. Augsburg became the base of the Holbein family, starting with Hans Holbein the Elder. The composer Leopold Mozart was born and educated in Augsburg.[16] Rococo became so prevalent that it became known as “Augsburg style” throughout Germany.[citation needed]

      Neat place to visit and on the Romantic Trail!

  18. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Misery index in developed countries is rising rapidly, the curve is steeper in UK
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FW-8l1kX0AI9Prm?format=jpg&name=medium

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Fabulous… correlates well with riots and rampaging. We burn you burn. We all burn

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This looks like a race.

  19. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    France’s Nuclear Woes Will Worsen Europe’s Power Crisis

    Drought and hot weather this summer are adding to France’s nuclear power generation problems at the worst possible moment. As Europe grapples with low Russian gas supply and the threat of no Russian supply at all, non-Russian energy sources are more important than ever.

    French power giant Electricite de France (EDF) warned on Tuesday that it may have to reduce nuclear power generation as the water levels of rivers are low and water temperatures high.

    France has been experiencing outages at its nuclear reactors in recent months, slashing power generation from nuclear power plants. France’s nuclear power generation accounts for around 70 percent of its electricity mix and when its reactors are fully operational it is a net exporter of electricity to other European countries. Prolonged maintenance at several nuclear reactors this year, however, means that France—and the rest of Europe—have less nuclear-generated power supply now.

    As a result of all these factors, power prices in Germany, France, and the rest of Europe renewed their rise in recent weeks.

    Half of all reactors EDF is operating are currently offline for planned maintenance or repairs.
    https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Frances-Nuclear-Woes-Will-Worsen-Europes-Power-Crisis.html

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      France’s nuclear industry has been having major problems for years. Years ago, France had excess electricity that it could sell outside. Now it needs to try to find electricity generation to import.

  20. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    EM currency crisis

    Poor countries getting killed and pulled out of the global commodity market, USD strength is subsidizing commodity prices for us but creating demand destruction and starvation globally.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FW_lkvPWQAAmi-J?format=png&name=medium

    • Fast Eddy says:

      nice driver of inflation in these countries… wicked

      petrol or eat? but I need petrol to get to work to make money to eat/buy more petrol…

      gosh that must suck

      https://christianaidministries.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/World-Hunger-1-scaled.jpg

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      So far the US has it good. But at some point, it seems like something has to “break.”

  21. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    The Cost of Sand Has Spiked 150% in Texas

    (Bloomberg) — Bumping along the desolate highways of the Permian Basin, the world’s busiest oil field, there are long stretches where all you see are drilling rigs, sage brush and miles upon miles of sand. That’s why it’s so strange that Texas crude producers are facing a sand shortage of more than 1 million tons and prices that have jumped 150%.

    Frack sand, which gets blasted through shale rocks to unlock oil and natural gas, is averaging $55 a ton, up from $22 at the end of 2021, data from energy-research firm Lium show. Demand is climbing as oil explorers turn the taps back on after Covid-driven cutbacks. But like in so many pockets of the economy, the recovery is sparking a mismatch. Sand suppliers have seen disruptions, labor shortages and trucking bottlenecks. The chief executive officer of US Silica Holdings Inc., the largest publicly traded frack-sand miner, has dubbed the tight market “sandemonium” and said his company is sold out.
    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-cost-of-sand-has-spiked-150-in-texas-1.1788442

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      One of the many things going wrong with respect to fracking in Texas.

  22. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    WOW, credit default swaps for Credit Suisse going absolutely vertical.

    Insurance against the default of the $14b bank are approaching levels not seen since the Great Financial Crises.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FW_u0KnXoAAPXdZ?format=jpg&name=medium

    • it would be really stooooopid if CBs and govs allowed derivatives to destroy the global economy.

      a few big banks getting destroyed would be cool though.

      anyway, the CBs/govs should somehow negate any derivatives that would blow up the system.

      we can only hope that they have the smarts to be able to do this.

      • MM says:

        If you want to steal the pensions, you can not bail the banks out any more.
        Blown up banks are a perfect argument for not paying pensions.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Something’s gotta give….

      Sri Lanka Is Running on Empty, Less Than a Day of Fuel Left
      https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/sri-lanka-is-running-on-empty-less-than-a-day-of-fuel-left/ar-AAZhGFX

      Does this mean that tomorrow essential services stop? i.e. no food?

      • CTG says:

        So, we should see fireworks tomorrow ?

        The Sri Lankan government has imposed extreme measures to stretch out the relatively small amount of fuel it has left. Fuel sales were banned last week and this week, except for essential services. All schools and non-essential government agencies are closed, and businesses are being encouraged to have as many employees work from home as possible. Unrest has followed the restrictions, including a notable incident where protesters were fired upon by soldiers after the military cut a line for gas.

        I copied the paragraph from the link. Notice that it is similar to COVID lockdown.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I am afraid we will have some banks that fail, including Credit Suisse.

      Deutsche Bank was mentioned as having problems, earlier.

  23. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    German benchmark 1-year forward electricity contract surges to an all-time high above €340 per MWh. At current price levels, German manufacturing is going to crumble.
    https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1544709859194683394

    • the Davos Men never considered that this could be a possible outcome of their woketard Great Green Reset ideas.

      it will be a glorious and wonderous sight to behold.

      of course, worldwide supply chains will also suffer the consequences of crumbling German industry.

      oh well, it’s all good.

      que sera sera.

      • MM says:

        you seem to be pretty naive to believe that:
        a) The WEF is in control
        b) If a) they did not see this coming.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      No kidding! It seems like schools will close; electric trains won’t operate.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Perspective…

        It’s -4C … with a wind howling across the barren treeless moonscape (but no Van Allan Belts..) … chugga chugga chugga chugga hoo hooo!!! as FE shovels black gold into the gaping maw of the Rayburn … chugga chugga

        And I’m thinking what if BAU went down this very minute… power out … wifi gone … phone signal gone — I stop typing mid sentence … is this it? Are these sacks of coal, batteries, some diesel and cartons of food in the garage – all that are between me and ground zero?

        I have a flashlight so I flick that on…. Madame Fast has been at the gym… I wait for her to return … we hear an engine pull up — the garage does not open … the entry gate to the driveway has battery back up so for now it allows her to enter… the dogs whine as always — excited to see Mother….

        M Fast comes through the door and says – the power it out in town as well – everything is dark… no street lights … stop lights are dead… nothing .. just darkness everywhere…

        Hmmm.. wonder what’s going on … (knowing full well what’s going on)… let’s wait a bit – hope it comes back up. Have you called the power company? No – the phones don’t work….

        We light some candles and sit near the fire… and wait… the batteries continue to spin the clock hands – tic toc tic toc… 10 soon becomes midnight — nothing … do I throw a heap of coal on the fire and hit the hay?

        What if this is The End… most people do not have fires to heat their homes… they’ll be freezing … what if they decide to set out to the rural areas knowing there will be heat to warm their children… and some way to cook food…

        They’ll be looking for chimney smoke… I decide to put only enough coal in the fire to last a few hours… I don’t want the embers smoking away when the sun comes up…

        I suggest M Fast go to bed first … I’ve got a few things to do… more batteries and flashlights to retrieve from the Doomsday Container out back of the house… I put on my winter gear and jump in the ute… I back up to the container and load one of the large boxes of ammo into the back… I unlock the gun case and place the weapons on the back seat – I’ll have to get the bolts out of the safe in my office later…

        I also place a plastic box filled with batteries and flashlights in the ute — and another box of candles.

        Returning to the house I quietly open the safe and gather the components of the rifles… inserting them then loading the entire arsenal.. Then I place a few more of those very sharp knives into a few more hiding spots… just in case… I leave most of the weapons in my office and lock the door – taking only a 12 gauge shotgun which I hide under the bed with a box of shells before M Fast comes out of the shower… watcha doin there Fast.. oh nothin.. Hoolio put one of his toys under the bed… just getting it for him…

        I try to sleep but every creak of the wind is someone trying to come through one of the doors… seeking warmth… or food… or to do harm… When I can’t sleep I flick on Audible and listen to a book… I forgot to charge my phone so I’m below half capacity… f789 it… we’ll either have power when I wake up — or we won’t … I hit play… and drift off…

        Inevitably someone will come … they’ll have kids and they’ll expect to be invited in… does one shoot people who are only looking for a meal — and a bit of warmth?

        Perhaps some people will ask no questions and open fire with warning shots… driving off the desperate…

        I doubt I will do that…. what does it matter if I share or not — starvation begins in a couple of weeks instead of a couple of months…. but will the guests — when they see their children melting away from hunger decide cannibalism is the only option – what then?

        We really need UEP to pre-empt this … that or governments definitely must distribute super strength Fentanyl…. we need an option to opt out of this.

        It will be… unpleasant… and there will be no surviving it so what’s the point of dealing with these grim scenarios…

        Instead … perhaps a bit of wine… staying up late chatting about the highlights of life… remember this moment and that… then slipping off to refill the glasses.. adding the powder… and drifting off into nothingness…

  24. snonini
    Sandy Smith-Nonini says:

    Hi Gail,
    I am an anthropologist who does research on energy crises – esp. political economy aspects, focus on oil/gas-related. I’ve followed your writing for many years and often gain insights from your analyses.

    My question is about drawing conclusions about peak production based on estimates of fuel production over time divided by population growth to get a per-capita figure. My understanding is that there is a wide gap between fossil fuel energy use by people in industrialized countries compared with people in less-industrialized places. And population-wise, the latter prevail in terms of numbers. While the core of the financial system is in more industrialized world. So doesn’t that discrepancy complicate any conclusions about likelihood of global financial crises as a consequence of downturns in oil/gas production based on this calculation?

    I’ve read that close to 2 billion folks still practice subsistence agric. – which is not to say they are not embedded in global networks of trade . . . of course, but differently. Many lower-income nation states have high sovereign debt, so northern banking woes would be likely in cases of defaults –and IMF structural adjustment would create situations of austerity with resulting social unrest – so complex outcomes. But are there other ways to measure the intersection of demand and production of fossil fuels that you recommend?

    If this approach were used, it seems to me that petro-dollar flows and US Treasury assets would also be a critical part of measuring consequences. [of course, no argument that reduced fuel access would likely cause production and hunger crises, social unrest and coups etc. which would have global impacts] — Welcome your insights on how to develop a more complex model that factors in both depletion and financial flows.
    Thanks,
    Sandy

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      You have more faith in “US Treasury assets” and “petro-dollar flows” than you should have. I agree that some countries use more subsistence farming than others. This can mean that they plant and harvest rice by hand, but they still use urea fertilizer that is available indirectly because of fossil fuels. Many parts of the world use some blend of modern practices and ancient practices.

      We are on the edge of a lot of debt defaulting. A lot of banks will find themselves unable to give people the money back that they think that they have deposited. International trade is very close to making some big changes. There likely will be new alliances. Some countries are going to get left out.

      The system will fail in a disorderly way, I am afraid. We have become too accustomed to business as usual.

      • Kim says:

        Across Asia basic mass food production depends on IC engines. Irrigation depends on petrol-powered pumps. People feed their cows and goats with grass collected at long distances and brought home on motorbikes.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I know that Balinese farmers were in severe distress when oil prices hit $147 in 2007 — the cost of their petro chem based fertilizers was smashing them… they had no choice but to keep tossing urea onto the paddies because swapping to organic inputs would take years of soil repair… and of course if they all could swap organic input prices would $$$$$$…

  25. project wis.dom
    project wis.dom says:

    I remember 2018. Do you know Gail about any official forecasts of oil extraction still showing future increases?

    IEA, BP?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The IEA still shows increases ahead. It only forecasts to 2026. It shows a temporary step down, but then increasing to 104 million barrels a day in 2026. It shows 2018 at 99 million barrels per day.

      https://www.iea.org/fuels-and-technologies/oil

      This is a report on BP’s current forecast for oil.
      https://jpt.spe.org/bps-energy-outlook-backtracks-on-peak-oil-demand-but-not-for-long

      ” BP offers three scenarios that all foresee oil demand surpassing pre-pandemic levels by the middle of this decade before slipping to varying degrees.”

      “The most bullish case for oil, called the “new momentum” scenario by BP, projects that crude demand will rise to 101 million B/D in 2025 and remain flat into 2030. After that point, global demand retreats to 98 million B/D by 2035 and to 92 million B/D by 2040.”

  26. bosveld says:

    A harbinger of things to come for those who still harbor any illusions about keeping their savings in any sort of financial instrument:

    https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/companies-and-deals/jse-resumes-trade-after-connection-glitches/

    “Africa’s biggest stock exchange was offline for about an hour.

    The Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) on Wednesday afternoon issued a note to traders stating that trading had been halted as a result of “intermittent disconnects across all markets and services.” … ”

    It was caused by the incessant load shedding (rolling blackouts) that South Africa is experiencing, and data centres and internet exchanges are starting to fail.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Money that really reflects pixels on a computer somewhere is likely not very long for this world, when electricity is increasingly an intermittent type of supply.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Wow… impressive. I do recommend keeping a fair amount of cash and maybe some PMs on hand .. not that these will save you… but as we head to the icy ocean bottom … a bit of hard cash might buy you a blanket to keep warm in the period before you enter the water.

  27. Tim Groves says:

    Georgia Guidestones partially blown up! Not quite the Taliban, but this is vandalism on an impressive scale.

    https://www.wyff4.com/article/georgia-guidestones-possible-explosion/40525569?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email#

    • project wis.dom
      project wis.dom says:

      What a barbarism!
      For me it is one of the cultural miracles and symbol of deep wisdom.
      Truly sad information.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Strange! Of course, no one guards these stones.

    • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
      Ed says:

      Wonder if someone will pay to fix it?

      • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
        Ed says:

        It says keep population under 500 million. Would that be African, European, or Asian? Or 33% of each? What about native north American, native south American, native Australian?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        PR Team is saying — see the reduction to 500k is real – that’s why this was blown up – to prevent the secret from getting out .. Klaus Knob is behind this …

    • Student says:

      Wikipedia is incredibly update on this strange point. It reports that the monument has been completely demolished for safety reasons on the 6th of July 2022. Yesterday!

      https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_Guidestones

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        “safety reasons”

        As good an excuse as anything.

  28. Dominic Cummings is alluding to Nietzsche today, with his exhortation to Tory MPs to ‘push what is falling’ and to get rid of Boris.

    https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1489263223790465027

    The idea is found in Zarathustra, although I half-remember seeing it somewhere else too – perhaps I am mistaken?

    > O my brethren, am I then cruel? But I say: What falleth, that shall one also push!
    Everything of to-day—it falleth, it decayeth; who would preserve it! But I—I wish also to push it!
    Know ye the delight which rolleth stones into precipitous depths?—Those men of to-day, see just how they roll into my depths!
    A prelude am I to better players, O my brethren! An example! DO according to mine example!
    And him whom ye do not teach to fly, teach I pray you—TO FALL FASTER!— (On the Old and New Tablets.)

    I understood the idea, in my memory, to mean that one should not try to save a civilisation that is decayed within and toppling, and that it is better to let it fall, and even to help to shove it over, so that something better can be built on the ruins. And he does talk of ‘everything of today’, although he is clearly talking also about people of today – no doubt the two are connected in his perspective.

    And indeed Cummings alludes nearby to a passage on the fall of Rome that suggests that his scope is broader than Boris. OFWers will enjoy this passage….

    https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1544614688180391936

    But if that is so, then perhaps Boris should be left in place so that the decline can accelerate? Or perhaps the next PM will be ‘even worse’. What exactly are we ‘pushing over’ here – one man or a civilisation?

    Regardless, the British state is thoroughly rotten and toppling, in very slow motion but detectably, and it is fair enough, even an act of charity, to help to push it over. At least, that is a valid perspective.

    From our own perspective here, the energetic situation is soon to bring everything down anyway, and it is probably not worth getting too fussed about stuff – but life goes on and each to their own.

    Nevertheless, it is good to see some erudition in our society.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The current situation does sound a lot like the twitter link describing the fall of Rome.

      In the US, we have Joe Biden. He would seem to be an ideal person to preside over a system falling apart.

    • Kowalainen says:

      ”Regardless, the British state is thoroughly rotten and toppling, in very slow motion but detectably, and it is fair enough, even an act of charity, to help to push it over. At least, that is a valid perspective.”

      Yes, let’s have another spin in the wheel of time, nothing much new this time around I reckon. Just the same old eternal primate repetitions ad nauseum forever and evarrr…

      https://youtu.be/2pkpsxEyi-k

      😑👎👎

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I suspect Boris has played his role in UEP — and he’s said enough of this .. I’m going to have a bit of a vacation before the End Game arrives.

    • drb753
      drb753 says:

      It’s more like statistical fluctuations in some metric, as the west goes down. there will be a little better and a little worse rulers, all thoroughly forgettable, just like we forgot all those roman emperors, 200-400 DC.

    • “What falleth, that shall one also push!”

      is there anything practical we can do to help it go faster?

      • Kowalainen says:

        Post a video of yourself body painted with rainbow colors while twerking. Don’t worry about being unattractive, photoshop will sort that out no problemo.

        “Renovate” the house and extend it. Surely you need a new pool, specially if you live in Alaska.

        Buy a Tesla.

        Be a showoff on social media

        Tryhard for ‘nuffin and MOARons for free.

        Be a yes man

        Go on vacation to the usual tourist trap.

        Support the green new deal.

        Vote.

        Get vaxed and double, or is it triple? boosted.

        Just about anything that signals: “Imma useful idiot member in the herd”.

        Burn baby, burn while being a sanctimonious hypocrite about your rapacious primatery.

        Envy those richer and moar “successful” than you.

        Yes indeed, project your primate WtP as ‘authentic’ as hoomanly possible, which should be easy after all those decades of rapacious primate absurdities.

        YOU CAN DO THIS!

        Oh wait, that’s exactly what you’ve been doing.
        Carry on.

        😅👍👍

      • I suspect that it would be a really bad idea for most people to basically declare war on all of the things that are usually closest to their hearts – even if it were for all of the best reasons. Humans have generally evolved to do the complete opposite of that, even if their evolution has not fitted them for every situation. It could be psychologically really damaging as the ego restructured itself to the task. A particularly strong personality, and particularly refined instincts would be required, and it certainly would not be for everyone. My advice to most people would be to not engage too seriously with that one.

        • But as Nietzsche puts it:

          > O my brethren, am I then cruel? But I say: What falleth, that shall one also push!
          …. And him whom ye do not teach to fly, teach I pray you—TO FALL FASTER!—

          It is all a matter of perspective, and perhaps it is not for me to tell people what they cannot do.

          If they want to try to ‘fly’, then let them – and who knows, perhaps they too shall reach the clear skies.

          • Kowalainen says:

            No they can’t. But it surely would be amusing watching them flail about before the inevitable crash and burn after returning to the usual monkey business.

            (Imagine Biden on the bicycle)
            🤣👍👍

            Schadenfreude is such a powerful glee for those with somewhat ‘tuned’ survival instincts.

            They’re primates with a neocortex tacked on for good measure after all. The newfangled “CPU” merely amplifies the archaic drives of a monkey.

            It is what it is.
            😑

    • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
      Ed says:

      Well that is bleak and depressing.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I found it rather amusing …

        Cuz. It details how a ‘superior intelligent species’ ramped up its population to an awe-inspiring 8B … on the back of finite resources….

        The hubris involved is epic in that they perhaps thought they’d find a work-around once the finite stuff was no longer available.

        And now the species is about to self-extinct… never in the history of the world has an organism done that… we are witnessing utter and total stooopidity.

        But then … look around you … it’s a sea of MOREONS… who demand MORE (Kow has a bit more to say on that)…. if you suggest to them that more is not necessary they will run over you like a herd of stampeding Wildebeests trying to get to the other side of the river… cuz MORE is over there…

        Good riddance dummb f789ers hahaha…

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I liked this section:

      No, like the great majority of Americans throughout this country’s long and checkered history, they know exactly who to blame for anything that goes wrong: the current inmate of the White House. In this case, that’s poor vacant-eyed Joe Biden, who had the misfortune to be saddled with that overrated job when the current cascade of problems started to hit. I’m not a fan of Joe Biden—a Tupperware container half full of creamed chipped beef would likely do a better job as chief executive of our republic—but I pity the man. He just happened to be there, staring blankly out the window of the Oval Office, when the consequences of most of a century of collective stupidity, arrogance, and greed landed on him.

      The current mess isn’t Joe Biden’s fault, in other words, and it won’t go away even when his political career comes to an ignominious end and his reputation gets vilified for generations to come. The current mess is the inescapable consequence of the factors I’ve discussed in the last three posts in this series—the accelerating depletion of fossil fuel reserves, the destabilization of the global climate by pollution, and the twilight of the global hegemony of the United States—all playing out against the greater background of the decline and fall of industrial civilization. Biden simply got left holding the bag, the way Herbert Hoover did when seventy years of gaudily corrupt American plutocracy blew sky high in 1929. (Those of my readers who rooted for Donald Trump should thank their lucky stars that the 2020 election went the way it did; otherwise it would be their candidate and their party who’d be up against the wall.)

      • Wildsilver says:

        Joe Biden was always the bag man, previously as vice pres and ever since as senator for Delaware, the obscure tax haven deep in the heart of the USA cash wash laundromat. Loyal to party and ‘business’ at the same time. Mr 10% personified.

        • MM says:

          …and Klaus Schwab is the bag man for the alt’s.
          “Don’t worry, we are in control and you’ll be happy”

      • lidiaseventeen
        lidiaseventeen says:

        Only JMG, with his achingly sophisticated hair-splitting triangulation and moderation, could pity a man who (likely sexually) abused his children, stole hundreds of millions from taxpayers, donors, and foreign entities over decades, and committed bald-faced treason on too many occasions to count..

        Bravo, JMG. You do yourself proud.

        Biden should be tarred, feathered, drawn, quartered, with the pieces dragged through the streets before being roasted and served up at a celebrity repast hosted by Lady Gaga (tickets at EventBright).

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Biden put there for the same reasons why we have transgender strip shows for 8 yr olds to enjoy at the library …. why a man is swimming in the NCAA finals against women… and so on….

        It’s all very disorienting for the hordes…

  29. CTG says:

    I just chattwd with clients… nornalcy bias is extremwly strong. I realised that those who took the jab, they cannot see what is potentially coming.. cause or effect?

    • Tim Groves says:

      I share your observation. By and large, the vaxed just don’t “get it”.

      Getting vaxed is an effect, not a cause, of this cluelessness. Normies are a mixed bunch, but there are some general characteristics. They are comfortable following the leader as a member of the herd. They are comfortable believing, deferring to and complying with authority. In many cases they get a kick out of attacking, criticizing or ridiculing the non-complying independent-minded mavericks and individualists, or at the very least the former are uncomfortable with the latter being around.

      Of course, I’ve overgeneralized, but it is clear to me that most of the normies I know were genuinely afraid of COVID-19 and, while they may have worried about the vaccine too, they were enthusiastic to receive it. I know a lot of people who were convinced that double and latter triple vaxing would make them “fully protected”. And I know quite a few personally who have died, had heart, kidney or pancreas problems, strokes or cancer shortly after getting vaxed—far more people in percentage terms than had these issues prior to being vaxed.

      This is very reminiscent of the Clinton Body Count in that in the absence of proper forensic investigation it is impossible to attribute any the deaths (and injuries) to the suspected cause, but still the bodies keep piling up. And still, by and large, the vaxed just don’t “get it”.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Most people are oblivious or doing their best to ignore the hurricane that is tearing the tiles off of the roof of the global economy….

  30. CTG says:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/europe-forced-pay-even-higher-prices-fill-gas-storage

    I have no understanding how the gas in Europe can be filled. They dont have abundsbt LNG snd the pipelines are nor full. It is similar to Sri Lanka always having “one day of fuel reserve”.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Interesting report on Europe’s natural gas.

      The EIA has a recent update on US natural gas, found at this link:
      https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/archivenew_ngwu/2022/06_30/

      “Global trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2021 increased by 2.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), or 4.5%, compared with 2020 and averaged 49.0 Bcf/d, according to The LNG Industry GIIGNL Annual Report 2022 by the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL).”

      This was after a pretty much “flat” year in 2020.

      US natural gas in storage is on the low side, for this time of year. Natural gas prices have fallen back, after the fire led to a reduction in LNG export capacity. The latest price given in $6.67, which is high for the US.

    • “I have no understanding how the gas in Europe can be filled.”

      the article says that Europe is on an average pace for filling their winter reserves.

      okay, let’s assume that is true for now.

      but gas must also flow daily from Russia throughout the winter.

      if Russian gas doesn’t continue daily, the filled reserves won’t be anywhere near enough.

      Putin most definitely has the upper hand.

      Dutch ttf gas inssanely high at 171 today, wooooooo.

    • CTG says:

      I could not find the article or link anymore but I do remember that I saw a chart stating that NG in EU at that point of time is so much lower than previous years. It is stated that if they did not start soon (perhaps in June), then they will not be able to fill up.

      As stated before, these news feed like the Shanghai webcam, everyone seems to be hiding something or misreporting something to the point that I cannot believe anything anymore.

      • Tim Groves says:

        We think, therefore we am!

        Well, it’s a start.

        We each live in a finite world bounded by the limits of our imagination.

        That’s right: we live in this world and this world in turn lives inside our minds.

        So, we must take care not to ramble too far afield or we may fall off the edge.

        If we want to expand our world, then we need to become a bigger container.

        Deception among human beings has always been ubiquitous. Creating credible fictions and seeing through them are two of the principle human talents.

        Along with Big Oil, Big Food, Big Tobacco and Big Pharma, there is a gigantic propaganda industry known as the mass media, that would more accurately be referred to as Big Lie. Hey, that’s catchy. I like it.

        With Big Lie mediating between events and consumers of news about these events, it is no wonder an honest truth-seeking sort of person cannot believe anything anymore.

        https://www.markedbyteachers.com/as-and-a-level/history/reorganizing-the-truth-and-disseminating-lies-manipulation-in-blade-runner-and-maus.html

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      But

      “The heavy inflow of coal shipments is exacerbating gridlock at the ports,” and

      “Coal terminals are currently at full storage capacity, and transporting large volumes of the fuel inland “has become a challenge over the past few weeks,” the Rotterdam port said. The situation has been complicated by a shortage of barges, it said, as many vessels are tied up with Ukrainian iron ore and grain exports.”

      It becomes impossible to make quick changes of any kind.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Increased freight charges added about 25% to the price of a sack of coal in NZ…. similar increases apply to compost attributed to freight cost increases.

        We are well on the way to F789ediSTAN.

  31. the blame-e says:

    Have you thought about limiting the number of comments per person? It seems this “Fast Eddy” is trying to take over the comments section. He is either like “California Surfer Dude,” a government agent, or just another troll. I’m not knocking what he is saying, but a fair amount of his comments are just plain being mean and menacing to other commentators (to drive them off from “his space?”).

    • First, Gail, thank you for new article and the implications of interest rates on the network system…my take it’s just a token display that “we are still in charge” by the Fed and they will “chicken out” as I believe Rick Rule has suggested..

      KEEP FAST EDDIE FREE…please do not limit him in any way shape or form…
      Fast Eddie can not be contained…he must roam like a wild beast…
      If we do, I chringe at the repercussions….

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4hknCDVBfU

      Fast Eddie is on the edge…don’t push him over…

    • We don’t do that here- he must be left on the prowl to keep us all on our toes

    • Z says:

      He works for Mossad as a disinfo agent housed with UNIT 8200

      • That doesnt make him a bad person… question..is Mossad part of the Elders and UEP?
        Just asking for a friend…seems many here have access to inside sources.
        Strange they would bother to fiddle faddle here amongst our group.

    • ivanislav says:

      Fast Eddy needs a leash! (this issue becomes a thread every few articles)

      • eddy is just an attention seeker

        something he can’t get enough of–he must have his daily fix

        anyone offering ‘contra attention’ or contra opinion is subject to a torrent of abuse, irrespective of the load of BS on offer.

        Been going on for years.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Don’t worry about menacing norm and mike and driving them off… this has been going on for years and they — like a severe case of herpes — never go away. They enjoy being menaced — especially when Fast Eddy is wielding the lash — it makes them feel important.

      The beatings will continue… cuz.

      • Eddy

        will make sure you have a (already broken) supply of eggs

        and a battery powered whisk

        so you can build up your (beating) strength to undertake the real thing (ie eggs with shells on)

        How are you fixed for getting an anchor tattooed on your fprearm?

    • be careful blame

      eddy has an online black belt in cyber martial arts

  32. Alex says:

    Real interest rates are deeply negative, even if we take the official, fake inflation numbers at face value. Some central banks are raising their nominal interest rates a bit, which makes the real rates a bit less deeply negative. Consequently, some marginal Ponzi schemes masquerading themselves as profitable businesses will go bust (notably so-called tech disruptors). Consequently, less valuable resources will be burned on nonsense. Good.

    “My concern is that the current attempt to bring inflation down will lead to falling energy supply and a world economy that is rapidly changing for the worse.”

    There’s one trick which governments love to use: socializing losses. If governments can bail out or nationalize failing money changers, why should we expect they won’t do it with energy producers when push comes to shove?

    “… but the total quantity of energy per capita needs to keep rising to prevent very adverse outcomes.”

    What’s backing up this assertion? Isn’t it like saying that the number of calories I consume daily needs to keep rising to prevent very adverse outcomes? Which is of course not the case, because there’s a point after which consuming more calories would be detrimental to my well-being and health.

    • deimetri
      deimetri says:

      “… but the total quantity of energy per capita needs to keep rising to prevent very adverse outcomes.”

      What’s backing up this assertion?

      //

      Uh, our debt based economy requires perpetual growth in order to cover the interest on debt..($10 debt requires $11 to pay back debt plus interest, so economy must grow to add additional $1)..
      We need perpetual increase of inputs in capital, labor and commodities in order to keep the ponzi going..

      Your analogy is based upon the growth of a body that levels out..if you needed constant growth your energy needs would also need constant growth..

      • Alex says:

        Fiat dollars are an inadequate measure of energy. My dollar account balance could be higher every month, while its purchasing power in terms of energy could be lower every month.

        • we are in an energy based economic system, not a money based economic system

          there’s nothing we can do to change that.

          when there is no longer sufficient energy to support our system, it will collapse.

          During that period of collapse, (which is where we are right now) we will go on creating money to pretend that all is going to work out fine in our future.

      • think of it as a game of leapfrog

        first you have to have cheap available surplus energy

        then that is tapped, using people, to whom you pay wages

        But those people use their wages to buy ‘stuff’

        But they then need more ‘stuff’—which can can only be produced by surplus energy

        So more stuff is produced

        which provides the next round of wages–and so on.

        we’ve been leapfrogging like that for 300 years or so.
        Energy–wages–energy–wages—the ‘leapfrog’.
        Energy comes first–wages second.

        Which works fine, so long as there’s enough energy to support wages. But people always demand higher wages, irrespective of energy available

        When the energy input stops, the game of leapfrog stops.

        But the ultimate game of denial doesn’t stop, so we create debt to delude ourselves that we can have wages without energy input.

        Crypto anybody???

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Another step in trying to keep the lights on.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The issue is more like, if your body needs 2000 calories a day, it cannot get along on 1500 calories a day. As more people are added, they all need to get the equivalent of 2000 calories a day.

      Cutting everyone back to 1500 or 1000 calories per day will lead to everyone dying, eventually.

      • lidiaseventeen
        lidiaseventeen says:

        Yes, that’s the problem with “equitable” (unnatural) distribution. Even if there’s 99.999% of the minimum food necessary for a certain population, either there is an “inequitable” distribution or the entire population dies.

  33. Fast Eddy says:

    https://smirksinyourgeneraldirection.substack.com/p/location-location-location

    Dr Mike Yeadon
    5 hr ago
    ·
    edited 5 hr ago
    I’m one of very many no doubt who’s family believes what I’m telling them, but not to the extent they’ll do anything about it.

    My wife & I moved countries, which is unusual, but I had good reasons.

    The kids (26, 30) voluntarily remain in U.K.

    Wish they weren’t.

    Sister has a US passport, but I don’t think she’ll leave her daughter, who won’t leave her useless husband, who thinks I’m nuts.

    hahahahaha… sounds like a great family dynamic! Fairly typical at the moment as the CovIDIOTS butt heads with the rational people

  34. Fast Eddy says:

    Interesting … so many people are now in doomie prepper mode e.g. https://metatron.substack.com/p/whats-next-in-the-fight-against-the

    Mke Yeadon had a post up on Telegram linking to an article Location Location Location on SS… discussing of course being away from population centres …

    I dropped a comment about the spent fuel ponds … just for fun

    Doomie Prepping is the reaction of most people when they start to realize collapse is imminent… that’s Mr DNA expressing himself…

  35. Student says:

    I wonder how can they think that a full re-building of Ukraine will be possible without low-cost energy resources ?

    ‘The Conference on re-building Ukraine has been just held in Switzerland’

    https://www.byoblu.com/2022/07/06/ucraina-ricostruzione-vale-settecentocinquanta-miliardi-dollari/

    This is going to be interesting how it will develop…

    • drb753
      drb753 says:

      In Novorussia energy will be reasonably cheap. In rump Ukraine the oligarchs’ pockets will be reconstructed at the expense of western taxpayers. that is, no reconstruction.

      • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
        Ed says:

        Exactly money printed, money transferred, no reconstruction, no press coverage.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Some years ago an engineer who worked on hydro plants appeared on OFW — and he wrote a detailed explanation as to why hydro plants would stop soon after BAU collapsed…

        The sheer number of parts that are sourced from around the world involved in generating electricity ensures that the power stops the minute a single key part breaks – and cannot be replaced. many of these are specialized electronics…. there are no work around… then there is the grid… one part is damaged and it shuts down

        Russian oil is the same boat… plenty of countries have oil but they will not be able to extract or refine it post BAU

        Russia also has plenty of spent fuel pond.

        Russia is just as f789ed as anywhere else… but feel free to believe otherwise if it keeps you sane

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      College professors can have conferences on anything.

  36. Jon F says:

    “Lee-veh aht Arffuh!!”

    Anyone a fan of “Minder” back in the 80s/90s?

    Dennis Waterman passed away May 8th aged 74…..I’m not implying anything with respect to the cause of death…..it’s just that his passing barely received a mention in the UK media…..whereas if he had passed away 30 years ago….we likely would’ve had a national day of mourning for him here in the UK…

    The world keeps turning….generations change….the world moves on….fleeting fame….

    Alec John Such….bass player for Bon Jovi passed away a few weeks ago aged 70….

    • Tim Groves says:

      I liked Dennis Waterman in The Sweeney, Britain’s response to Starsky & Hutch. Seems he died of lung cancer. Exacerbated by the spike protein?

      On the other hand, James “Gaia” Lovelock is still with us, and he’s going to be 103 later this month.

      No news on whether either of these men got jabbed, but they certainly were not poster boys for it.

      Remember the seventies, when life was so much calmer and less violent?

  37. Jan says:

    Oil and gas cannot meet the demand needed. Most national production is falling short and we are getting more and more dependend on the few very large oil fields. That comes with changes within the international power balance.

    What is more the BRICS demand more and more as they copy the lifestyle and business models of the west. That leads to a supply crunch.

    Investment into production becomes uninteresting. It means the necessary prices and amounts cannot be met.

    Looking to Europe a lot of relevant companies seem to expect a breakdown of the industry with the end of Russian gas, oil and coal. If the European economy breaks down, there should be expected effects on the stock markets, which might trigger a breakdown of the whole financial system.

    That could affect the ability to finance the production of oil and gas and slow down also other economies.

    If we look to the conspiracy theories currently around, there will be a 20% reduction of births and a reduction of elderly – especially in the West. It means the energy per capita-ratio will become better. A lot of scaling effects will though be missing. That could lead to a decreased ability to explore difficult sites.

    There will be a moment when it becomes impossible to slow down and there must be a restart – comparable with a restart after a war. If many people die with the current situations it is not sure that complex infrastructure needed for energy supply like large pipelines or huge investments can be done.

    It is possible that there is no way to scale down – and keep the more and more complex exploration going.

    • James Speaks says:

      Would the US try to cut Europe loose?

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        I am sure that the US would be happy to have Europe fail on its own, leaving more for others.

        It is not clear that all of any country can really continue.The very “woke” parts of the US can’t continue, I am afraid.

  38. i just checked my Audubon eddy (original 1838 edition of course)

    In it I could find no reference to the lesser spotted eddywit.

    So I can only assume that it is a species that might have evolved since the original book was published.

    Though as it never flies above waist height, it is easy to see why it might have been disregarded by Audubon and others studying the genus ‘wit’.

  39. Student says:

    Zelensky is angry with Greek ship-owners because they don’t stop moving Russian Oil.

    https://splash247.com/zelenskyy-urges-greek-owners-to-stop-moving-russian-oil/

    • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
      Ed says:

      Who cares what the coked up comedian says?

      • Student says:

        Sure, the interesting point is that Russian oil is still moving with the great fleet of Greek shipowners…
        It is clear that the world can’t refuse that oil.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Trying to stop oil shipments doesn’t really work.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I suspect russian oil and gas is flowing as per usual (there are not boycotts)… it’s just that there is not enough to go around… so we have to claim the shortages/hiking prices … are due to the Ukey war and Putin…

        It’s working very well – people believe this is temporary

  40. Student says:

    From this post it seems that Dutch Police shot at farmer protesters in Netherlands, I don’t know if they shot directly. Maybe not. Shots seem real. Maybe further news will be available in the next hours.

    https://voxnews.info/2022/07/06/paesi-bassi-regime-fa-sparare-alla-folla-che-protesta-video/

  41. Student says:

    Green pass changes definition and it becomes ‘personal digital wallet’.
    It will be necessary to do anything.
    Italy will be the leader European Country for the project.
    Italians will be leaders of the first western-society direct experiment on all population.
    As they were with European experimental vaccination.
    So maybe if one thinks that in order to change something in this nightmare, it is neccessary to invade Italy, could be right.

    https://www.ilparagone.it/attualita/green-pass-cambia-nome-colao/

  42. Fast Eddy says:

    Electric police cars ‘running out of puff’ on way to emergencies” – The blue lights and sirens drain the batteries and there are not enough charging points, a Police and Crime Commissioner warns

    https://archive.ph/PHMc3

    • CTG says:

      EV police cars is like EV Tanks or military vehicle… We have achieved 200% stupidi.ty

      How about some low energy or strength gender-confused soldiers?

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Sending a 100 pound female police officer to deal with a 250 pound male who is acting out doesn’t work very well, I am told by someone who has a son who is a police officer. The problem doesn’t have to be gender confusion.

        • info says:

          Technology is an equalizer. But the more advanced the technology the more dependencies it has. The more fragile it is despite the great power of said technology.

          So societies whose positions of Authority and taking on the danger of the world that tend to be Men. Also tended to win out.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        EV jetliners.. EV 18-Wheelers hahaha…. the MOREONS will believe anything — they really will.

        They’ll believe that with a bit more investment in the tech it can all happen..

        Cuz.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Dvt-H3x25A

        The Jetson’s is a PR campaign — to convince the MOREONS to believe in such things.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      LOL!

  43. Fast Eddy says:

    Is your summer holiday in danger of being ruined by Covid?” – Spain, France and Germany are all logging a rise in infections, while further afield in Caribbean hotspots cases are creeping upwards

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-10983041/Is-summer-holiday-danger-ruined-Covid-Cases-soar-France-Greece-Italy.html

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