The world’s self-organizing economy can be expected to act strangely, as energy supplies deplete

It is my view that when energy supply falls, it falls not because reserves “run out.” It falls because economies around the world cannot afford to purchase goods and services made with energy products and using energy products in their operation. It is really a price problem. Prices cannot be simultaneously high enough for oil producers (such as Russia and Saudi Arabia) to ramp up production and remain low enough for consumers around the world to buy the goods and services that they are accustomed to buying.

Figure 1. Chart showing average annual Brent-equivalent oil prices in 2021$ based on data from BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy, together with bars showing periods when prices seemed to be favorable to producers.

We are now in a period of price conflict. Oil and other energy prices have remained too low for producers since at least mid-2014. At the same time, depletion of fossil fuels has led to higher costs of extraction. Often, the tax needs of governments of oil exporting countries are higher as well, leading to even higher required prices for producers if they are to continue to produce oil and raise their production. Thus, producers truly require higher prices.

Governments of countries affected by this inflation in price are quite disturbed: Higher prices for energy products mean higher prices for all goods and services. This makes citizens very unhappy because wages do not rise to compensate for this inflation. Prices today are high enough to cause significant inflation (about $107 per barrel for Brent oil (Europe) and $97 for WTI (US)), but still not high enough to satisfy the high-price needs of energy producers.

It is my expectation that these and other issues will lead to a very strangely behaving world economy in the months and years ahead. The world economy we know today is, in fact, a self-organizing system operating under the laws of physics. With less energy, it will start “coming apart.” World trade will increasingly falter. Fossil fuel prices will be volatile, but not necessarily very high. In this post, I will try to explain some of the issues I see.

[1] The issue causing the price conflict can be described as reduced productivity of the economy. The ultimate outcome of reduced productivity of the economy is fewer total goods and services produced by the economy.

Figure 2 shows that, historically, there is an extremely high correlation between world energy consumption and the total quantity of goods and services produced by the world economy. In my analysis, I use Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) GDP because it is not distorted by the rise and fall of the US dollar relative to other currencies.

Figure 2. Correlation between world GDP measured in “Purchasing Power Parity” (PPP) 2017 International $ and world energy consumption, including both fossil fuels and renewables. GDP is as reported by the World Bank for 1990 through 2021 as of July 26, 2022; total energy consumption is as reported by BP in its 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

The reason such a high correlation exists is because it takes energy to perform each activity that contributes to GDP, such as lighting a room or transporting goods. Energy consumption which is cheap to produce and growing rapidly in quantity is ideal for increasing energy productivity, since it allows factories to be built cheaply and raw materials and finished goods to be transported at low cost.

Humans are part of the economy. Food is the energy product that humans require. Reducing food supply by 20% or 40% or 50% cannot be expected to work well. The economy suffers the same difficulty.

In recent years, depletion has been making the extraction of fossil fuel resources increasingly expensive. One issue is that the resources that were easiest to extract and closest to where they were needed were extracted first, leaving the highest cost resources for extraction later. Another issue is that with a growing population, the governments of oil exporting countries require higher tax revenue to support the overall needs of their countries.

Intermittent wind and solar are not substitutes for fossil fuels because they are not available when they are needed. If several months’ worth of storage could be added, the total cost would be so high that these energy sources would have no chance of being competitive. I recently wrote about some of the issues with renewables in Limits to Green Energy Are Becoming Much Clearer.

Rising population is a second problem leading to falling efficiency. In order to feed, clothe and house a rising population, a growing quantity of food must be produced from essentially the same amount of arable land. More water for the rising population is required for the rising population, often obtained by deeper wells or desalination. Clearly, the need to use increased materials and labor to work around problems caused by rising world population adds another layer of inefficiency.

If we also add the cost of attempting to work around pollution issues, this further adds another layer of inefficiency in the use of energy supplies.

More technology is not a solution, either, because adding any type of complexity requires energy to implement. For example, adding machines to replace current workers requires the use of energy products to make and operate the machines. Moving production to cheaper locations overseas (another form of complexity) requires energy for the transport of goods from where they are transported to where they are used.

Figure 2 shows that the world economy still requires more energy to produce increasing GDP, even with the gains achieved in technology and efficiency.

Because of energy limits, the world economy is trying to change from a “growth mode” to a “shrinkage mode.” This is something very much like the collapse of many ancient civilizations, including the fall of Rome in 165 to 197 CE. Historically, such collapses have unfolded over a period of years or decades.

[2] In the past, the growth rate of GDP has exceeded that of energy consumption. As the economy changes from growth to shrinkage, we should expect this situation to reverse: The rate of shrinkage of GDP will be greater than the rate of shrinkage of energy consumption.

Figure 3 shows that, historically, world economic growth has been slightly higher than the growth in energy consumption. This growth in energy consumption is based on total consumption of fossil fuels and renewables, as calculated by BP.

Figure 3. Annual growth in world PPP GDP compared to annual growth in consumption of energy supplies. World PPP GDP is data provided by the World Bank; world energy consumption is based on data of BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

In fact, based on the discussion in Section [1], this is precisely the situation we should expect: GDP growth should exceed energy consumption growth when the economy is growing. Unfortunately, Section [1] also suggests that we can expect this favorable relationship to disappear as energy supply begins to shrink because of growing inefficiencies in the system. In such a case, GDP is likely to shrink even more quickly than energy supply shrinks. One reason this happens is because complexity of many types cannot be maintained as energy supply shrinks. For example, international supply lines are likely to break if energy supplies fall too low.

[3] Interest rates play an important role in encouraging the development of energy resources. Generally falling interest rates are very beneficial; rising interest rates are quite detrimental. As the economy shifts toward shrinkage, the pattern we can expect is higher interest rates, rather than lower. As the limits of energy extraction are hit, these higher rates will tend to make the economy shrink even faster than it would otherwise shrink.

Part of what has allowed growing energy consumption in the period shown in Figures 2 and 3 is rising debt levels at generally lower interest rates. Falling interest rates together with debt availability make investment in factories and mines more affordable. They also help citizens seeking to buy a new car or home because the lower monthly payments make these items more affordable. Demand for energy products tends to rise, allowing the prices of commodities to rise higher than they would otherwise rise, thus making their production more profitable. This encourages more fossil fuel extraction and more development of renewables.

Once the economy starts to shrink, debt levels seem likely to shrink because of defaults and because of reluctance of lenders to lend, for fear of defaults. Interest rates will tend to rise, partly because of the higher inflation rates and partly because of the higher level of expected defaults. This debt pattern in turn will reinforce the tendency toward lower GDP growth compared to energy consumption growth. This is a major reason that raising interest rates now is likely to push the economy downward.

[4] With fewer goods and services produced by the economy, the world economy must eventually shrink. We should not be surprised if this shrinkage in some ways echoes the shrinkage that took place in the 2008-2009 recession and the 2020 shutdowns.

The GDP of the world economy is the goods and services produced by the world economy. If the economy starts to shrink, total world GDP will necessarily fall.

What happens in the future may echo what has happened in the past.

Figure 4. World energy consumption per capita, based on information published in BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Central bank officials felt it was important to stop inflation in oil prices (and indirectly in food prices) back in the 2004 to 2006 period. This indirectly led to the 2008-2009 recession as parts of the world debt bubble started to collapse and many jobs were lost. We should not be surprised if a much worse version of this happens in the future.

The 2020 shutdowns were characterized in most news media as a response to Covid-19. Viewed on an overall system basis, however, they really were a response to many simultaneous problems:

  • Covid-19
  • A hidden shortage of fossil fuels that was not reflected as high enough prices for producers to ramp up production
  • Hidden financial problems that threatened a new version of the 2008 financial collapse
  • Factories in many parts of the world that were operating at far less than capacity
  • Workers demonstrating in the streets with respect to low wages and low pensions
  • Airlines with financial problems
  • Citizens frustrated by long commutes
  • Very many old, sick people in care homes of various types, passing around illnesses
  • An outsized medical system that still desired to increase profits
  • Politicians who wanted a way to better control their populations–perhaps rationing of output would work around an inadequate total supply of goods and services

Shutting down non-essential activities for a while would temporarily reduce demand for oil and other energy products, making it easier for the rest of the system to appear profitable. It would give an excuse to increase borrowing (and money printing) to hide the financial problems for a while longer. It would keep people at home, reducing the need for oil and other energy products, hiding the fossil fuel shortage for a while longer. It would force the medical system to reorganize, offering more telephone visits and laying off non-essential workers. Many individual citizens could reduce time lost to commuting, thanks to new work-from-home rules and internet connections. The homebuilding and home remodeling industries were stimulated, offering work to those who had been laid off.

The impacts of the shutdowns were greatest on poor people in poor countries, such as those in Central and South America. For example, many people in the vacation and travel industries were laid off in poor countries. People making fancy clothing for people going to conferences and weddings were laid off, as were people raising flowers for fancy events. These people had trouble finding new employment. They are at increased risk of dying, either from Covid-19 or inadequate nutrition, making them susceptible to other illnesses.

We should not be surprised if some near-term problems echo what has happened in the past. Debt defaults and falling home prices are very real possibilities, for example. Also, making a new crisis a huge focal point and scaring the population into staying at home has proven to be a huge success in temporarily reducing energy consumption without actual rationing. Some people believe that monkeypox or a climate change crisis will be the next area of focus in an attempt to reduce energy consumption, and thus lower oil prices.

[5] There is likely to be more conflict in a world with not enough goods and services to go around.

With a shrinking amount of finished goods and services, we should not be surprised if we see more conflict in the world. Many wars are resource wars. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with other countries indirectly involved, certainly could be considered a resource war. Russia wants higher prices for its exports of many kinds, including energy exports. I wrote about the conflict issue in a post I wrote in April 2022: The world has a major crude oil problem; expect conflict ahead.

World War I and World War II were almost certainly about energy resources. Peak coal in the UK seems to be closely related to World War I. Inadequate coal in Germany and lack of oil in Japan (and elsewhere) seem to be related to World War II.

[6] We seem to be facing a new set of problems in addition to the problems that gave rise to the Covid-19 shutdowns. These are likely to shape how any new crisis plays out.

Some recently added problems include the following:

  • Debt has risen to a high level, relative to 2008. This debt will be harder to repay with higher interest rates.
  • The US dollar is very high relative to other currencies. The high level of the US dollar causes problems for borrowers from outside the US in repaying their loans. It also makes energy prices very high outside the US.
  • Oil, coal and natural gas are all in short supply world-wide, leading to falling productivity of the overall system Item 1. If extraction is to continue, prices need to be much higher.
  • Difficulties with broken supply lines make it hard to ramp up production of manufactured goods of many kinds.
  • Inadequate labor supply is an increasing problem. Baby boomers are now retiring; not enough young people are available to take their place. Increased illness, associated with Covid-19 and its vaccines, is also an issue.

These issues point to a situation where rising interest rates seem likely to send the world economy downward because of debt defaults and failing businesses of many kinds.

The high dollar relative to other currencies leads to the potential for the system to break apart under stress. Alternatively, the US dollar may play a smaller role in international trade than in the past.

[7] Many parts of the economy are likely to find that the promised payments to be made to them cannot really take place.

We have been taught that money is a store of value. We have also been taught that government promises, such as pensions, unemployment insurance and health insurance can be counted on. If there are fewer goods and services available in total, the whole system must change to reflect the fact that there are no longer enough goods and services to go around. There may not even be enough food to go around.

As the world economy hits limits, we cannot assume that the money we have in the bank will really be able to purchase the goods we want in the future. The goods may not be available to purchase, or the government may put a restriction (such as $200 per week) on how much we can withdraw from our account each week, or inflation may make goods we currently buy unaffordable.

If we think about the situation, the world will be producing fewer goods and services each year, regardless of what promises that have been made in the past might say. For example, the number of bushels of wheat available worldwide will start falling, as will the number of new cars and the number of computers. Somehow, the goods and services people expected to be available will start disappearing. If the problem is inflation, the affordable quantity will start to fall.

We don’t know precisely what will happen, but these are some ideas, especially as higher interest rates become a problem:

  • Many businesses will fail. They will default on their debt; the value of their stock will go to zero. They will lay off their employees.
  • Employees and governments will also default on debts. Banks will have difficulty remaining solvent.
  • Pension plans will have nowhere nearly enough money to pay promised pensions. Either they will default or prices will rise so high that the pensions do not really purchase the goods that recipients hoped for.
  • The international system of trade is likely to start withering away. Eventually, most goods will be locally produced with whatever resources are available.
  • Many government agencies will become inadequately funded and fail. Intergovernmental agencies, such as the European Union and the United Nations, are especially vulnerable.
  • Governments are likely to reduce services provided because tax revenues are too low. Even if more money is printed, it cannot buy goods that are not there.
  • Citizens may become so unhappy with their governments that they overthrow them. Simpler, cheaper governmental systems, offering fewer services, may follow.

[8] It is likely that, in inflation-adjusted dollars, energy prices will not rise very high, for very long.

We are likely dealing with an economy that is basically falling apart. Factories will produce less because they cannot obtain financing. Purchasers of finished goods and services will have difficulty finding jobs that pay well and loans based on this employment. These effects will tend to keep commodity prices too low for producers. While there may be temporary spurts of higher prices, finished goods made with high-cost energy products will be too expensive for most citizens to afford. This will tend to push prices back down again.

[9] Conclusion.

We are dealing with a situation that economists, politicians and central banks are ill-equipped to handle. Raising interest rates may squeeze out a huge share of the economy. The economy was already “at the edge.” We can’t know for certain.

Virtually no one looks at the economy from a physics point of view. For one thing, the result is too distressing to explain to citizens. For another, it is fashionable for scientists of all types to produce papers and have them peer reviewed by others within their own ivory towers. Economists, politicians and central bankers don’t care about the physics of the situation. Even those basing their analysis on Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) tend to focus on only a narrow portion of what I explained in Section [1]. Once researchers have invested a huge amount of time and effort in one direction, they cannot consider the possibility that their approach may be seriously incomplete.

Unfortunately, the physics-based approach I am using indicates that the world’s economy is likely to change dramatically for the worse in the months and years ahead. Economies, in general, cannot last forever. Populations outgrow their resource bases; resources become too depleted. In physics terms, economies are dissipative structures, not unlike ecosystems, plants and animals. They can only exist for a limited time before they die or end their operation. They tend to be replaced by new, similar dissipative structures.

While the current world economy cannot last indefinitely, humans have continued to exist through many bottlenecks in the past, including ice ages. It is likely that some humans, perhaps in mutated form, will make it through the current bottleneck. These humans will likely create a new economy that is better adapted to the Earth as it changes.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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4,063 Responses to The world’s self-organizing economy can be expected to act strangely, as energy supplies deplete

  1. Alex says:

    “There’s no oil out there,” Kaes Van’t Hof, chief financial officer of Diamondback Energy Inc., said during a conference call with analysts. “We’re not changing our plan for every $10, $20, $30 move in oil price.”

    Finally, oil bigwigs publicly acknowledge that the end is nigh! Or at least that’s what wishfully thinking doomers want to believe.

    This is what was actually said, in the proper context:

    Travis Stice: “[…] But what’s a little bit different this time is that the world today still appears to be chronically short physical barrels with not a lot of spare capacity to fill that gap. […]”

    Kaes Van’t Hof: “[…] That’s the benefit of this new business model where we’re not changing our plans for every $10, $20, $30 move in oil prices. There needs to be a $50 move in oil price lower before we discuss any change to our execution plan. […] And again, as Travis mentioned, there’s no oil out there.”

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4528711-diamondback-energy-inc-fang-ceo-travis-stice-on-q2-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I looked through the article and comments. A few things I noticed:

      1. The company has been selling 2/3 of its oil using Brent pricing (through Corpus Cristi) and 1/3 of its oil through Houston using WTI pricing. The company is happy about the high Brent/WTI differential. I expect the oil will be refined in Corpus Cristi and sent overseas to countries using Brent pricing.

      2. The company has been buying “puts” on Brent oil prices in the $50 to $55 per barrel range. The company seems to have little confidence that the price will, in fact, stay high.

      3. A remark is made that competitors are facing high clean up costs. This company has not started budgeting for such costs.

      4. The company says it has been buying inexpensive but also less efficient machinery recently. It feels that it can come out ahead, essentially with less complexity.

      5. The company remarks that it is a significant natural gas producer. It has problems with (adequate?) gas pipelines. It has been flaring some of this gas. I am guessing that the wells are producing too much gas, relative to oil.

      • Alex says:

        2. Commodity producers buy puts as an insurance against the commodity price falling below a specific level. Having a fire insurance, for example, doesn’t imply expecting the insured property to burn down.

        I would add one more interesting point from the transcript: they say that their “cash flow breakeven is down in the mid-30s a barrel.”

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          The cash flow break-even likely does not include quite a few things, including taxes.

      • I mentioned this already , but worth repeating. I was at a departmental party (my wife’s dept at the uni) 7-8 years ago, chatting to the hostess. She is an accountant by trade, and was the Chief Financial Officer for one of the mid-sized oil companies in Aberdeen. I asked her how things were going (she must have remembered I was ‘into’ oil depletion and was familiar with UK oil production) and all she said was ‘The writing is on the wall, I am looking for a new job’.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Indeed. The peak in oil production comes when it becomes unprofitable to do more drilling. Chief Financial Officers can see this.

  2. While disruptions to waterways would be a challenge at the best of times, the region is already on the brink of recession as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine fuels inflation by squeezing food and energy supplies. The situation — just four years after a historic halt to Rhine shipping — adds urgency to European Union efforts to make inland shipping more resilient.

    The continent’s rivers and canals convey more than 1 ton of freight annually for each EU resident and contribute around $80 billion to the region’s economy just as a mode of transport, according to calculations based on Eurostat figures. But the fallout from dried-up waterways goes deeper.

    “It’s not just about commercial navigation. It’s about freshening up when it’s hot, it’s about irrigating and so many other things,” said Cecile Azevard, director at French water operator VNF. “Rivers are part of our heritage.”

    The poor conditions are expected to drag down the region’s economies far worse than the 5 billion-euro ($5.1 billion) hit caused by Rhine transit issues in 2018, according to Albert Jan Swart, a transportation economist at ABN Amro Bank NV.

    “The capacity for inland shipping is going to be severely limited as long as there’s not a lot of rain in the area,” he said. “You also get the damage caused in Germany by the high electricity prices. We’re talking billions.”
    Even seasoned veterans are shocked. Gunther Jaegers, managing director at Rhine stalwart Reederei Jaegers GmbH, said he fell off his chair earlier this month when he saw the cost of shipping, with one barge rate surging by 30% in a single day.

    “I’ve never, ever, seen this,” he said. “It is insane.”

    While Jaegers and other shippers might be able to charge more per ton of cargo, they’re limited in how much they can carry as the lower water means they have to take on smaller loads to sail safely. And there’s no relief in sight. If you look at the weather forecasts, “it’s like desert,” he said.

    William Wilkes, Jack Wittels and Irina Vilcu
    Wed, August 10, 2022 at 3:28 AM
    (Bloomberg) — In the midst of an arid summer that set heat records across Europe, the continent’s rivers are evaporating.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Water levels in Europe rise and fall. There are high-water marks on buildings and posts from decades and centuries ago.

      I know that when my husband and I went on a river boat cruise in 2015 in Europe, we had problems with the water level being too high, making it difficult for ships to go under bridges.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      The Dust Bowl drought is usually referred to as the worst drought that ever hit the United States and the entirety of North America. The drought lasted about a decade, and it was characterized by severe dust storms that killed people and crops in the entire region. The Dust Bowl started in 1930 in the Southern Plains region of the United States, and massive dust storms began to hit in 1931. By 1934, about 35 million acres of land that farmers had previously cultivated had been rendered useless for farming. At the same time, about 125 million acres of land were losing their topsoil. For context, 125 million acres of land is about the size of Texas. The Dust Bowl ended in 1939 when regular rainfall returned to the region.

      https://a-z-animals.com/blog/the-worst-droughts-in-human-history-and-what-happened-after/

    • Fast Eddy says:

      The rise and the rainfall of the Roman empire

      A link between drought and the fate of ancient emperors bodes ill for modern times

      One such lesson is how drought affected the stability of the Roman empire 1,500 years ago. In a new paper published in Economics Letters, Cornelius Christian of Brock University and Liam Elbourne of St Francis Xavier University identify a strong association between rainfall patterns and the duration in power of Roman emperors. The academics hypothesise that lower precipitation reduced crop yields, leading to food shortages and eventually starvation for soldiers stationed at the empire’s frontiers. As a result, troops were more likely to stage mutinies and assassinate their emperor.

      https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/08/01/the-rise-and-the-rainfall-of-the-roman-empire

      https://www.economist.com/img/b/1096/724/90/sites/default/files/20180804_WOC511_0.png

    • Fast Eddy says:

      THE DROUGHT THAT LED TO THE DEATH OF A WHOLE CIVILIZATION

      Mesopotamia’s first unifying empire, as it turns out, may have been undone by climate change. “Since 3000 B.C., all rise and demise of major empires and dynasties in the Mesopotamia and Iranian Plateau coincides with [an] abrupt shift in climate conditions,” says Orash Sharifi, lead author of a recent study on sediment cores in modern-day Iran.

      The climate shifts caused drought and famine, which has brought down empires throughout history, including the Akkadian — roads, postal service and all. Its main city, Agade, is lost to history — nobody even knows whether it was on the Tigris or Euphrates River.

      The Akkadians aren’t alone: Several studies have found that severe droughts coincided with the fall of various Mayan civilizations, and many paleoclimatologists believe a dry spell ushered in the decline of ancient Egypt’s Old Kingdom.

      https://www.ozy.com/true-and-stories/the-drought-that-led-to-the-death-of-a-whole-civilization/74696/

      Do I need to continue?

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Economies are built with little margin for variability in climate. If something changes, they can easily go down. Huge grain reserves would be needed, among other things, to work around such a possibility.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      His geochemical data from Leviathan Cave in Nevada shows that drought can last 4,000 years – findings that Lachniet’s team cross-checked against paleoclimate data from the Arctic and tropical Pacific. In short, the story in the cave data suggests a worst-case scenario that could – and probably should – guide planning throughout the Southwest, home to 56 million people.

      “In this case, we know that nature is capable of extended dry conditions that are even longer than they are today,” Lachniet said.

      And although the study methods could not determine how much temperature changed, they did validate a period of aridification from 9,800 to 5,400 years ago as the western Pacific warmed and Arctic sea ice declined because Earth’s orbit shifted.

      https://cronkitenews.azpbs.org/2020/12/28/ancient-droughts-lasted-for-thousands-of-years-research-shows/

      Oh …

  3. The situation is quite dramatic in the sense that it’s been several years without rain and we’re hitting rock bottom,” said owner Francisco Bazaga, 52. “If it doesn’t rain, unless they find some alternative water supply, the future is very, very dark.”
    Andalusia, one of Europe’s hottest and driest regions, paddle-boats and waterslides lie abandoned on the cracked bed of Vinuela reservoir, remnants of a rental business gone with the water, now at a critical level of 13%.
    Vincent West

    CIJARA, Spain (Reuters) – A flock of sheep shelter from the midday sun under the gothic arches of a medieval bridge flooded in 1956 to create the Cijara reservoir in central Spain, but now fully exposed as the reservoir is 84% empty after a severe drought.
    Iberian peninsula at their driest in 1,200 years, and winter rains are expected to diminish further, a study published last month by the Nature Geoscience journal showed.

    The dry, hot weather is likely to continue into the autumn, Spain’s meteorological service AEMET said in a recent report, putting further strain on Europe’s largest network of dammed reservoirs with a holding capacity of 5.6 billion cubic metres.

    At the Buendia reservoir east of Madrid, the ruins of a village and bathhouses have reappeared, caked in dried mud, Reuters drone footage showed, while at another dam near Barcelona a ninth-century Romanesque church has reemerged still intact, attracting visitors.

    (Additional reporting by Albert Gea, Jon Nazca, Susana Vera, Borja Suarez, Editing by Andrei Khalip and Jane Merriman)

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      People will move to areas of the world with more rain; population will drop in the excessively dry areas. If the system can’t work, it will stop working. Stopping the use of fossil fuels or buying electric cars will not fix the situation.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Sediments and other archaeological evidence have led scientists to believe that ancient Egypt experienced a severe drought. Ancient Egyptians depended on the Nile’s flooding to irrigate their crops, but there were intense crop failures when the Nile failed to flood for an extended period. The Pharaohs tried their best to mitigate this through various innovations, but eventually, it fell apart. The drought and its aftermath are believed to have led to the fall of the Egyptian empire.

      https://a-z-animals.com/blog/the-worst-droughts-in-human-history-and-what-happened-after/

  4. CTG says:

    I have pointed out earlier in a comment that I talked about the PhD guy. He cannot really understand “quality” of energy

    I explained that China may have experienced a severe shortage of quality coal. To generate X MW of electricity, say 10 car loads of anthracite coal is required. However, if the coal available are are lower quality coal, then the following may happen

    1. To get X MW of electricity, instead fo 10 car loads of anthracite, it needs 15 car loads. So, coal wise, it will be more expensive.

    2. 15 car loads might not fit in the schedule of the train or it might take too long to mine that 15 car loads. So, it might not be feasible to transport 15 carloads jsut to generate X MW of electricity. The train might not be powerful enough to pull that much load. (i.e. this is just as an example – transport problem)

    3. The low quality coal may generate a lot of waste that reduces the efficiency or requires more downtime. It might be dirtier as well.

    4. The furnace, the cranes, etc may not be able to pump in or take in 15 carloads just to generate X MW. The power plant may be designed for burning high quality coal only. (It is unlikely that they take into consideration that high quality coal may run out soon in future)

    5. It might be the case that the low quality coal does not generate enough heat to make electricity efficiently. This is similar to what Norm said about the steam engine where it is just not hot enough to boil the water.

    There are lots of “unintended consequences” that no one will thing about because they will be labelled as “thinking too much”.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Also, coal-powered electricity generating plants are designed for coal with particular specifications. The coal may need to be sent to other geographical areas, where such plants are available. Or perhaps modifications are possible, with time and new equipment. I don’t know.

      The situation is probably like the train. Multiple parts of the electricity generating plant may need modification, and it likely will produce less electricity.

      Today, in the US, trains are normally diesel-powered. The cost of the diesel fuel can exceed the cost of the coal, if low quality coal is shipped a long distance.

  5. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Coal’s Skyrocketing Prices Could Last Years on Russia Disruption

    Europe’s plans to wean itself off Russian fuels will support the coal market in two distinct ways, both of which should keep prices of seaborne cargoes inflated for the near future, according to Fitch Solutions analysts.

    The EU’s ban on Russian coal that begins this month will boost demand for imports from other countries like Indonesia and even Australia. Meanwhile, plans to replace Russian pipeline gas imports with liquefied natural gas shipments will leave less fuel for other nations, forcing them to use more coal.

    Fitch “substantially” lifted its Asian thermal coal price forecast for this year and beyond. It now expects the fuel loaded at Australia’s Newcastle port to average $320 a ton this year and $246 a ton on average from 2022 to 2026, up from previous outlooks of $230 and $159, respectively.

    Asian coal prices hit a record earlier this year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exacerbated an already tight market. Miners are struggling to keep up with the surge in demand as utilities rush to secure fuel.

    Shifting forward curves on coal futures markets also indicates that high prices will last. A December 2026 contract for Newcastle coal is priced at $233.15 a ton, up from $111.15 at the start of this year and $80.80 at the start of 2021.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coal-skyrocketing-prices-could-last-035533183.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      World coal production has been on a bumpy plateau since 2011 according to BP data. The world is basically at “peak coal” production. There is lots of coal theoretically available, but the cost of extracting it and shipping it is too high relative to the value it provides.

      Coal prices can indeed spike for a while, but the result is similar to the peak coal in UK that led to World War I and peak coal in Germany that led to World War II. The major feature is not high prices; it is fighting among countries that need cheap-to-produce coal.

      People have heard for so long about “peak oil” that they never stopped to think that “peak coal” would be a simultaneous problem. Also, the incredibly high resources of difficult-to-extract coal lead people to assume that, of course, we will eventually get it out, and it will lead to climate change. For example, perhaps we will figure out how to burn coal under the North Sea and capture the energy produced as electricity. But there are a huge number of underground coal fires now, and we have no way of capturing them. (I don’t think we can put them out, either.)

      The problem is one of misunderstanding where we are with respect to energy resources.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Notice how they blame everything on the Ukey war…. such a useful war that is

    • ” …on Russia Disruption”

      Except it is us that is refusing the oil / coal / gas deliveries, rather than Russia shutting off supplies. Goebbels must be rolling in his grave.

  6. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Germany, where supermarket prices are rising much faster than in other Eurozone countries. Food CPI jumped 14.8% YoY in July, the highest food price inflation since the start of the statistic.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZyYuzsXgAA4eJR?format=png&name=4096×4096

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      If a person knows the dates when oil prices rose, it becomes clear from looking at your chart that food prices tended to follow a similar pattern in Germany.

  7. postkey
    postkey says:

    “Just over a month is left until “Israel” will begin extracting from the resource-rich Karish field in disputed waters, and yet no deal concerning the demarcation of maritime borders has been reached yet. If no deal is brokered by September, will we see a new “Israel”-Lebanon war? And why is there little to no media attention placed upon this? “
    https://english.almayadeen.net/articles/analysis/is-an-israel-lebanon-war-in-the-next-month-inevitable

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Reading this article, the author is convinced that Israel could not win, by itself, fighting against Hezbollah in Lebanon. He thinks that one outcome might be to try to draw in other countries on the two sides, with Iran on the Lebanon side and the US on the Israeli side. With the Middle East doing as poorly as it is, it might be possible to get quite a few countries involved.

      Postponing production, to avoid war, would be another option.

      He then goes on to talk about other aspects of this:

      Another factor here is the upcoming Israeli elections, which will take place in November and means that every single Israeli political party will seek to use current events to their favor. Yair Lapid, the current Israeli Prime Minister, will likely take the blame for whatever the result of the maritime border dispute issue will behold. Lapid will hence be faced with two bad options, from his perspective, fail militarily or hand over territory to Lebanon.

      We don’t know yet how this will turn out, but it does look like a problem area that could lead to a wider conflict, if others are willing to “jump in.”

  8. Fast Eddy says:

    Talk is cheap… let’s see some action https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/38289

    Is this a joke – farmers making a heart???? Pathetic https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/38309

    Clear video of the collapse of the Saudi pig dog https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/38311

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The last one is, “Saudi Ambassador dies mid-speech in Cairo at the Arab-African Conference.”

  9. Fast Eddy says:

    Below is an email from a friend in the USA, old school kind of of person, long retired engineer / sales. No dummy. Woke up at 9/11 & hasn’t stopped digging since!

    I trust him fully, having spent a few days with him & his terrific family. Incidentally, one of his daughters is a doctor & I could tell she knew exactly who I was. I’m not a person who people immediately take a dislike to. If that should , it’s later, from something I said or did. But this woman really didn’t like me before we’d even shaken hands.
    The rest of the extended family is awake.

    Best wishes
    Mike Yeadon

    When the pandemic was announced and everything was coming to a halt in Feb/Mar of 2020 I decided to venture out on my own to check things out. I got in my car and drove to 5 different hospitals in the suburbs of Chicago expecting to record a video of the over crowded emergency rooms, refrigerator trucks in the parking lot and lots of body bags being hauled out for transport to the morgue. A very eerie landscape. The freeways were empty, the businesses were closed and virtually no one was outdoors.

    The first hospital I visited (Good Shephard Hospital) was the one that would care for my wife and I if either of us were admitted. There was a white, outdoor tent being erected in the parking lot just outside of the emergency room entrance. A security guard was at a newly installed gate at the road leading to the main entrance. I asked the guard how I could enter to get treatment and he said that no one was allowed regardless of their physical condition. I asked him how I should take care of my chest pains and he suggested that I contact my personal physician, because a security code was needed to enter the grounds of the hospital and the doctors are the only ones authorized to provide that code. I contacted my doctor and described the scene and he told me that he cannot see me and I would be required to go to a Covid testing facility to first be tested and then he could care for me based on my test results. Scary.

    I then drove to the largest hospital in the NW suburbs of Chicago (Northwest Community Hospital) and found the place empty. No cars, no people and no activity of any kind in or around the hospital. I drove up to the ER door and looked inside and saw no one. Something very strange was going on. This place should have been rockin’.

    I then drove to one of the largest hospitals in Illinois (Dupage county Hospital) which has the highest level of technology available for a huge range of special illnesses. My son’s sister-in-law works at this particular hospital and told him that refrigerator trucks were in the parking lot and that body bags were piling up. She claimed that tents were outside the hospital because patients were in the corridor and hallways of the hospital and that they could no longer accommodate the overflow of infected people. I drove completely around the hospital 3 times and saw no one. No tents, no refrigerator trucks, no body bags and no cars. EMPTY! I called my son and he said that his sister-in-law would not lie and that I was mistaken. I sent him a video from my phone. He then called his sister-in-law and she stood firm on her claims. He challenged her with this video and she finally confessed that she had not actually witnessed the chaos, but another close associate at the hospital had told her about all of the activity.

    Then off to visit 2 more hospitals and I got the same results. Nothing going on. I did visit the hospital in Hoffman Estates that had the very first American that had contracted the virus and witnessed total emptiness. There were 7 nurses outside the ER door. A couple were smoking a cigarette and the others were playing Hop Scotch in the drive directly outside of the ER entrance. No cars, no people, no tents, no patients. I stopped the car and asked them where everyone was and they immediately turned and walked back into the hospital.

    I realized that this whole pandemic was a lie and that there was something much more sinister afoot.

    • Kowalainen says:

      “But this woman really didn’t like me before we’d even shaken hands.”

      Before reading the article:

      /Speculation on

      Do you reckon hyper MOARon trollop here would have had engineering “pops” shove the kids to the Suicide Booths if they were not adults at the time?

      I reckon engineering “pops” would have chosen option 3. That is to say:
      Stress and depression from children with VAIDS caused by accepting a self entitled reflection of the collective subconscious to birth his children.

      Daughter probably prefer the advice from pops and stays out of harms way.

      /Speculation off

    • Xabier says:

      Good stuff.

      That hostile lady doctor would no doubt send Dr Yeadon off to a camp for re-education – or worse. Even to shake the hand of a mis-informer,…….ugh!

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      We saw videos of the empty hospitals in 2020. Quite a few non-COVID medical care workers were laid off, because few people would come to the hospital, even if they had severe symptoms. There weren’t COVID patients, but there also weren’t other patients.

      • In England, the number of patients waiting for hospital visits is now over 6 M. That is way over 10% of the adult population.

        Hospital waiting lists hit six million in England (jan 2022)
        https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59972628

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Wow!

          I think that there are big differences in how hospital beds are used around the world.

          The US tries to do as much surgery on an outpatient basis as possible. Minimally invasive approaches are used, so very often, surgery is performed using only small slits. Often, patients go home the same day. If a patient needs rehabilitation after surgery (or other illness), this is often done in “rehab wards” in nursing homes, rather than in hospitals. Both of these approaches tend to keep the number of hospitalized patients down in the US.

          US hospital beds are not terribly full, even in 2022. A typical occupancy rate seems to be in the 50% to 75% range.

          The US and the UK seem to have fairly close to the same number of hospital beds per 1,000 people, if we look at World Bank data:

          https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.MED.BEDS.ZS

          UK in 2017 2.54 beds per 1000
          US in 2017 2.87 beds per 1000

          The general trend in hospital beds per 1000 population is down. They are expensive, and patients in hospitals are likely to catch illnesses while in hospitals. Minimally invasive surgery reduces the need for such bed, greatly,

          • My husband has been in the hospital for ten days with classic pneumonia. We are the only unvaxxed of everyone we know in our age cohort (mid-60s, early 70s). We did everything we could until he couldn’t breathe, then hospital it was. He does not have covid.
            I’ve stayed with him for most of every day. While there I’ve spent hours thinking about this blog. The hospital saved his life. But. Every Single Thing they did was based on technology ( therefore energy). He is in a room full of machines that run continuously. The staff speak to each other through complex equipment they wear on their on clothing. Likely his medicine comes from China. There are new, special beds for the brand new & “nicer” part of the hospital, but traditional sheets don’t fit them. The staff explanation is broken supply chain. Our energy is what stands between many of us & old-fashioned diseases we once commonly died from. Fast Eddy is right. We could fall apart quite quickly.

  10. Fast Eddy says:

    And now for some funny news https://dailysceptic.org/2022/08/09/energy-bills-set-to-double-next-year/

    Energy bills for a typical household could hit £4,266 next year, consultancy Cornwall Insight has warned.

    The higher estimate means the average household would be paying £355 a month, instead of £164 a month currently.

    • “…would be paying £355 a month, instead of £164 a month currently.”

      This (average) does not represent reality at all. Right now the UK is having one of its warmest summers ever, ie. utility bills very low right now due to zero heating bills. This talk in the UK media of people choosing to not pay their bills is nonsense. Come October (when utility bills increase by 70+% plus heating gets switched on) millions on the dole / govt pension / minimum wage will NOT BE ABLE to pay their bills. These very high energy prices are trying to tell us something – there is no longer enough energy for everyone’s needs.

  11. Fast Eddy says:

    Pharmacist Admits on Video “We Don’t Want to Scare Parents.”

    https://thefreethinker.substack.com/p/pharmacist-admits-on-video-we-dont

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Gretchen Whitmer, who imposes very strict COVID-19 restrictions in Michigan, making citizens very angry.

  12. Adonis says:

    Cash bans are now beginning looks like the elders will be taking us to negative interest rates shortly the great reset has failed or has it?

    • A couple of shops that opened here (Aberdeen, UK) recently (last year or two) don’t take cash. But that’s it, so far. News items over the last few days suggesting that the less well off are using cash more to try and control their spending better:

      Cost of living: People are using cash to budget as July sees record number of withdrawals, Post Office says
      https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/money/saving-and-banking/cost-of-living-people-are-using-cash-to-budget-as-july-sees-record-number-of-withdrawals-post-office-says-1783097

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Or perhaps the record withdrawals are because of concern for the safety of money in the bank.

        • MM says:

          Let me pick up this important issue:

          In case there should ever be some sort of debt aka money cancellation or a terminal liquidity crisis cash teller out of order etc. and some sort of new currency might be required (*cough*) you must remember the rule:

          “sea shells are money”

          meaning:

          If you have a substantial stash of bills and coins and most or all your neighbors or people in your area do the same, you can just continue to use that money as a token of exchange.
          At least to keep some sort of economy working until you figure out something else. That seams to be very easy to do because the people already know how their “old” money works.

          The only one thing you must not do then is to bring that money to the bank!

          Yeah, the police, the police.
          Will they really enforce killing off the last bits of a “free” economy available, and if they tried, will they win against the many?

        • That is possible, but I don’t think so. I don’t know anyone apart from myself that is concerned about the health of banks (just like CV19). In the UK, the post office has been the traditional way of paying / collecting govt benefits, and correspondingly for the less well off to pay their bills.

  13. Fast Eddy says:

    Another study showing persistence of mRNA vaccine activity in lymph nodes at 10 weeks post treatment. This time radiological evidence (PET-CT scanning) of activity in lymph nodes on the same side as the injection. This does not occur with standard vaccines.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8082565/

  14. Fast Eddy says:

    achtung norm

    insane study from Thailand showing 7 of 202 boys got some form of myocarditis after the shots! 18% had abnormal EKGs. I always knew this was a lot more common than they admitted. sifting through this now. https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202208.0151/v1

  15. Fast Eddy says:

    And whats with this bs of begging for money when a Vax MOREON dies…

    F789 off.

    The fundraising page that has raised more than $21,000 as of Monday will go toward funeral costs and additional support for her family.

    • Xabier says:

      Doe one see a hint in this – for Brits – as to how they might pay their winter energy bills?

      Provide for your family: take the jab!

      It’s incredible here: no sign at the supermarket of people stocking up on non-perishables ahead of no doubt dramatic price increases for food from late ’22. No discernible rush for butane gas, candles, despite MSM warnings of power cuts.

      If Brits were a herd, hunters wouldn’t even have to creep up on them using cover. Just browsing as usual, heads down…..

  16. Fast Eddy says:

    hahaha… interesting that none of the HK garbage MSM ran this story… she’s a midwife… so 100% injected hahaha pay the price PTP.

    A mother of two traveling back to the UK to see her parents died in her sleep on a flight with her husband and two children, according to a grieving friend.

    Helen Rhodes and her family were flying from Hong Kong to the UK on Aug. 5 when she “passed away in her sleep,” friends said.

    “We are still in disbelief and shock about the sudden passing of our dearest friend whose life has touched many people in Hong Kong and the UK,” wrote friend Jayne Jeje on a GoFundMe post.

    https://nypost.com/2022/08/08/uk-mom-dies-in-her-sleep-on-flight-with-husband-and-two-kids/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=news_tab&fs=e&s=cl

  17. f says:

    More confusion for the MOREONS

    Nancy Pelosi: ‘China Is One of the Freest Societies in the World’

    “… China is one of the freest societies in the world. Don’t take it for me. That’s from Freedom House. It’s a strong democracy, courageous people…”

    https://rumble.com/v1fdda3-nancy-pelosi-china-is-one-of-the-freest-societies-in-the-world.html

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Strange!

  18. MG says:

    The kamikaze behaviour of the Russians

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62469740

    The Japanese had planes during the WWII, the Russians push it to another level: we will nuke ourselves with us if you do not obey.

    Russia has become another North Korea or Iran, the threatening terrorists.

    The desperation of the implosion.

    • get real.

      the Russians control the area and the power plant.

      the NATZO Ukrainians were firing missiles in the direction of the plant.

      the NATZO Ukrainians have been called out by human rights organizations for using HUMAN shields.

      all Ukrainian neo Natzees should be eliminated.

      good thing many of them are dead already.

      send in the women and old guys as reinforcements.

      the corrrrupt USA/NATZO masters are just as bad as corrrupt Zelensky.

      read thesaker.

      get real.

      • drb753
        drb753 says:

        I think this blog is degenerating. On one hand we have hundreds of posts “he said, she said” in excruciating detail, on a background of only slightly increasing mortality. On the other we quote the BBC, for christ’s sake. Have all the analytic, quantitative people left?

        • MG says:

          I wanted to point to the fact that humans resort to suicidal actions when faced with the limits: be it kamikaze, the terrorists or the individuals with high ambitions, requirements.

          • ivanislav says:

            Russians aren’t going to shell themselves, that’s moronic. Obviously it’s Ukrainian forces, because if they can cause a nuclear disaster, (1) it will sap Russian resources and attention and (2) if they can pin it on the Russians (which western media will happily proclaim), it will renew flagging support among US/EU/NATO.

            Next you’ll claim it’s the Russians shooting butterfly mines into ethnic-Russian and Russian-held Donbass!

        • Tim Groves says:

          No, we are exploring possibilities here. MG is raising the prospect, outlandish at the outset, that the BBC might actually be publishing accurate information.

          Difficult to believe, I know.

          But from where I sit, it looks very much as if almost the entirety of the Ukrainian armed forces are kamikazes, or, more precisely hostages of and cannon fodder for the Kiev regime.

          They are like the boys in the trenches in WW1 only with much bigger and much better aimed munitions exploding on top of them.

          They are dying dozens or even hundreds at a time in some cases without even getting to see their opponents on the battlefield.The death count among Ukrainian soldiers is probably well over a hundred thousand already.

          Somebody has miscalculated badly and these soldiers are paying a terrible price for it.

          • drb753
            drb753 says:

            I am good with exploring. How about exploring things that pass the cui bono test?

            • Kowalainen says:

              Trickle feeding obsolete Javelins, 777’s and HIMARS, and having them blown up by the russkies surely going to benefit the MIC.

              But hey, I kinda like my internet connection and various microchips sprinkled all across my life.

              I guess it would be rather hypocritical of me to complain.

              If the rapacious primates needs the occasional war for moving the needle on evolution. Who am I to argue?

              But don’t get me wrong; I wish it was different. Ultimately it is what it is.

      • MG says:

        Russia is a colder country than Ukraine. Less energy from the Sun and more additional energy from fossil fuels is needed.

    • MG says:

      Nuclear physicist Venhart: Ukraine is rather at risk of a scenario similar to Fukushima

      https://tech.sme.sk/c/22980563/jadrovy-fyzik-venhart-na-ukrajine-hrozi-skor-scenar-ako-z-fukusimy.html

    • This is the dumbest conclusion I’ve seen yet from the USA, as well as those believe everything that American ‘intelligence’ has to say…

      Why on earth would the Russians start shelling a position that they themselves occupied?!

  19. Fast Eddy says:

    12:00 mark — vax injured man loses it on the hospital staff… when is someone gonna get real payback?????

    https://resistance.kiwi/nelson-hospital-emergency-department-staff-speak-out

  20. Fast Eddy says:

    And people believe FOX/Tucker… is on their side hahahahaha

    nothing… NOTHING .. gets onto any MSM platform – including Tucker… unless it was sent to them by the Ministry of Truth … and supports whatever agenda the PR Team (and their bosses – the Elders) have.

    NOTHING. Get it? Nothing. It’s all a manufactured reality we all are experiencing.

    Reid G Sheftall
    Writes Dr. Reid’s Newsletter
    58 min ago
    I said all this and more 2 1/2 years ago. I even used some of the same slides. Nobody listened. I was a physics major so I had the kind of training that helps enormously when doing this kind of analysis. After I did this analysis and made posts and videos about it, I wrote Tucker, Hannity, Anderson Cooper and Chris Cuomo to warn them about lockdowns and masks but they never wrote me back. Those emails were sent out on March 17, 2020.

  21. Fast Eddy says:

    https://metatron.substack.com/p/everything-you-wanted-to-know-about

    Glenn
    11 hr ago
    Liked by Joel Smalley
    I am a technical specialist in respiratory protection for the respirator manufacturer named in the video by Stephen Petty. I have been astonished by how colleagues of mine, many with much more experience have gone along with the mask nonsense. They must know it is utter rubbish as I do.

    Rubberto Kaufen
    11 hr ago
    ·
    edited 11 hr ago
    Liked by Joel Smalley
    …okay…..I work in the IH safety portion for chemical industry…This guy is SPOT ON!

    You are going to say a “medical” mask or some other MEXYZ-95 mask is going to stop a 50 micron airborne virus, but even the best masks can only stop 300 microns at an efficiency at 95%….IF they are fitted best, but only for a short period of time….

    Your going to kill more people…with masks…

    I want to punch every one of these idiots on TV saying a mask works…..please….just one

    Whisk
    9 hr ago
    Liked by Joel Smalley
    yup. me to a relative in 2020: “why has flu disappeared?”
    relative:” it’s the masks”
    me:”you can’t have it both ways”

    hahaha – sounds like what norm would say!

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The link is to a substack article by Joel Smalley. Within it, there is a link to a 16 minute video, giving expert witness saying that masks don’t really work.

      What Fast Eddy shows below are some of the comments to that article that Joel Smalley “liked.” Presumably, these remarks are along the same lines as the testimony. Masks can’t be expected to work; they simply add to pollution.

  22. Fast Eddy says:

    It would be fun to take that Fat Slob from Tim’s clip — drag her into a room — tie her up and force her to watch this 500x

    https://metatron.substack.com/p/everything-you-wanted-to-know-about

  23. Fast Eddy says:

    Stephen Petty:

    Certified industrial hygienist;

    Certified safety professional;

    Professional engineer;

    45 years in the field of health and safety, trying to protect workers and the public from toxins;

    Named/testified in over 400 legal cases related to exposure control and personal protective equipment (PPE);

    talks us comprehensively through 50 years of evidence showing the ineffectiveness of masks in mitigating SARS-Cov-2, the COVID virus.

    https://metatron.substack.com/p/everything-you-wanted-to-know-about

  24. Fast Eddy says:

    Russian population crashing; Philippines shows 64% excess mortality; strokes have doubled in Yucatan and Andalusia; New Zealand sees uptick in excess deaths since booster rollout

    https://markcrispinmiller.substack.com/p/russian-population-crashing-philippines

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This is a link to Our World in Data, showing excess mortality for Philippines vs US. Philippines does indeed have a big late spike in mortality.
      https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-projected-baseline-by-age?country=USA~PHL

      This is a link to Our World in Date showing excess mortality for New Zealand and the US.
      https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-projected-baseline-by-age?country=USA~NZL
      New Zealand is sufficiently small that the data bounces around a lot. It is clear that over the long haul, the US excess mortality has been a lot higher than New Zealand’s. New Zealand kept away from the virus while it was in its most virulent phase. New Zealand’s excess deaths seem to be concentrated in age groups over 65. These excess deaths have occurred only recently. Early in the pandemic, keeping everyone inside seems to have led to lower than expected deaths.

  25. kulmthestatusquo
    kulmthestatusquo says:

    When Titanic sank, a sailor, whose name escapes me, actually cut empty lifeboat to the sea ‘to keep the order’. By doing that he killed at least 50 people.

    But he didn’t die with the ship and escaped. He later ran a merchant raider hunter, and was notorious for throwing the German civilians to the sea.

    Despite of that, this piece of shit was praised by Christopher Nolan in the movie “Dunkirk” because he rescued some English civilians. His late act of ‘goodness’ does not compensate for his past crimes.

    At least in his case he received the divine punishment, albeit too late, in 1952 during the “Great Smog”. After years of warfare propagated by the likes of him, the British public didn’t have the appetite to remember him, so he died forgotten along with 12,000 other victims (at that time only 6,000 deaths were announced) of the Great Smog.

    ===

    It says the heating bill for London will exceed 4,000 pounds/month in next january.

    The people of Great Britain should accept this as the punishment their fathers and grandfathers earned by propping the wrong kind of people ,like the Maharajahs of India or the Sheiks of Middle East.

    Sorry, immigrants. You might not have participated in the many sins the United Kingdom had accumulated, but since you chose to be in there when things are happening, you will go down with the ship as well.

    Punishments don’t come that fast but sometimes it does come. At least British patriots can feel happy that Europe is going down with it.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      If you think Big Picture… there are way too many people… almost all of them are MOREONS….

      So what if none of them would have survived the Titanic…

      This is how the Elders think.

      When they organized the Twin Towers collapse… that killed what 3000? They would not have even considered that when making the decision to plant the thermite charges.

      To them it’s like exterminating rats

      • Xabier says:

        Correct, FE, and very few can grasp that level of pyschopathy.

        Who wants to believe that they are less than a rat in the eyes of their rulers – the oligarchs, and the crazies who infest the military and security services?

        • Kowalainen says:

          Would you mind having a hyper MOARon or hyper Tryhard dragging you off for an injection in the Suicide Booth? I reckon not.

          You’d rather have them dead, wouldn’t you? Survival instinct isn’t psychopathy.

          It is inherently amoral.

          No; I don’t know if the “elites” or various “services” consist of psychopaths. Problem with these personality disorders is that sick people can’t get shit done without creating a defunct boondoggle for themselves.

          Which unfortunately rings the bell of satori after observing IC for an extended period of time.

          You might have a point.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            They are actually behaving as all humans would if they were not bent by religious and ethics instruction.

            • haven’t looked into ofw for a few days–deleted a string of stuff

              today i thought i’d take a look

              8 comments in my inbox

              6 of them from eddy–way past parity now

              nothing’s changed–mostly eddyechoes..

              notice all the commenters who no longer bother–

              that’s why

            • Fast Eddy says:

              And here we have yet another incoherent waste of space post by … 5x vaxxed norm .. our resident Pro Vaxxer

              Even mike has stopped haha… mike may have done more than stop vaxxing though

            • Kowalainen says:

              The only “rule” that need to be instilled is beating them with the “golden rule” stick.

              Like a behemoth wood pecker going to town sky high on MDMA and blow. Hacking away until the last grasp of air.

              Good thing hoomans doesn’t live that particularly long. Imagine the devastation having long lived hyper Tryhards and hyper MOARons sky high on their own product.

              That would be an appalling sight to behold.
              🤢🤮

  26. Fast Eddy says:

    Dr. Ryan Cole: They Want You To Put A Toxin In Your Body With No Off Switch

    This is the one article you need. Then we can end the shots and end the pandemic right here. American Heart Association – 25th July 2022:

    ‘The spike induces the innate immune system to attack the heart cells and makes them balloon’

    Why would you put this in the body of a child to damage their heart, or any human being for that matter?

    https://t.me/childcovidvaccineinjuriesuk/1965

  27. Fast Eddy says:

    Adern didn’t harm anyone … she just spun records and pumped up with pills and powders and meth … and no doubt still does…

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/national-mp-sam-uffindell-stood-down-from-caucus-while-more-allegations-investigated/B7CBGWFRA2AXLNKPVTL23ODTEM/

  28. Fast Eddy says:

    Hahahahaha… keep on repeating this … and it will appear to be true .. except that … when you try to use it to buy shit… you need real money … and the CBs have that + they ain’t too cool with counterfeit $$$….which is what Bitcoin is trying to be

    https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-money-central-bank-digital-currencies-are-not
    https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-money-central-bank-digital-currencies-are-not
    https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-money-central-bank-digital-currencies-are-not
    https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-money-central-bank-digital-currencies-are-not

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The title is:

      Bitcoin Is Money; Central Bank Digital Currencies Are Not
      CBDCs are a form of social control, while Bitcoin represents hope for a more equitable human future based on the universal constant of 21 million…

      I agree that the government digital currencies look like a form of social control, but I cannot see how bitcoin is greatly better. The article says, “Bitcoin is a base-layer monetary network that is more scarce than gold, having a clearly defined and unalterable finite maximum supply of 21 million.”

      But, it seems like other similar products keep coming out, so there is no fixed maximum. Also, the distributers seem to go out of business.

      • Bam_Man says:

        These arrogant, hubristic psychopaths think that people will actually perform real WORK for their fake garbage that masquerades as “money”.
        We are already entering a “We pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us” situation in the current monetary system, where the so-called money does not earn any meaningful interest and loses value ever more rapidly.

        • MM says:

          The amount of work that gets done in my professional environment has practically declined to zero.
          My personal observation is that the complexity has risen too high and some sort of required “get your a*s together and work” is no longer available. Everybody is stuck in a whole lot of confusion and ignorance and zero cooperation but a lot of emergency meetings and talking. Nobody knows whats going on, nobody tries to figure out what is going wrong here and problems abound in unrelated problems that have nothing to do with the original problem. The difficulty level of the problems is very high and time consuming. As there are so many unexpected problems showing up unexperienced workers need help by more experienced workers so they can also work less on their own problems.

          As Gail might put it “complexity has some limits and might have to go down”.
          Reminder: This is my single personal experience in the IT industry.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        They are desperately attempting to prop up a failing mass psychosis

      • MG says:

        If something is exclusive, it is not available to all.
        The currency is available to all, but Bitcoin isnt.

  29. Mac
    Agamemnon says:

    Found at peakoilbarrel:
    Wow
    Gives notion to that Seneca idea.
    I assumed a steady depletion.

    Pay for report so it’s probably meaningful:

    It amazes me how the market fails to realize that the global oil industry is sleepwalking over the ENERGY CLIFF. Instead of being deeply concerned about our future, investors believe this is a temporary energy crisis solved by just investing more money in finding oil. And… it’s even worse than that.

    https://srsroccoreport.com/global-oil-industry-sleep-walking-over-the-energy-cliff-killing-the-oil-industry-10-million-barrels-at-a-time/

    In that update, I provide those ROSY Major Oil Company news results. Indeed, the Majors are making big profits. However, one important factor that is overlooked as the Oil Companies laugh all the way to the bank is that their CAPEX investment is in the TOILET.

    So, what we have now is the MAJOR OIL INDUSTRY Going Out Of Business Sale. They are no longer interested in being a long-term ongoing concern as they see the writing on the wall. The collapse in CAPEX spending suggests the END IS NIGH…

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Good point. F789 the seed corn… let’s just eat it. And eat well they will prior to the Global Holodomor.

      Rocco’s problem is believing gold is the answer.

      • Mac
        Agamemnon says:

        Well he seems to imply more $$ won’t fix nuttin. If you mean by cashing out , yeah I guess so.
        So from Brady bunch/Happy days to holodomor.
        Error error my circuits frying will Robinson
        Maybe reason for all these survivor tv shows

      • Tom says:

        >> Rocco’s problem is believing gold is the answer.

        So what is the answer?

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Appreciating and enjoying the time we have now. Changing our expectations regarding long life. I think that there is a possibility of life after death, but not a certainty. Religious faith can help as well.

          Reducing our expectations of what will be available in the future. If our bank accounts won’t buy much in the future, we are more free to spend them now.

          • Tom says:

            So essentially act like the world is coming to an end?

            Is there really no hope of trying to be the top 1% of this future world with the information we have here on OFW? Don’t bother investing in timberland for example for a future world full of wood burning stoves? Blow it all on cocaine and parties?

            • CTG says:

              If anyone has critical thinking, he would realise that supply chain collapse leads to total collapse. No other answer.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Do you fancy a strife 24/7 to “reach the top” for exactly what?

              To project your “excellent” genes through the bottleneck just to have it repeat ad perpetuity?

              It’s crazy talk.

              Buy a fishing rod and go fishing or something worthwhile instead of the tragicomic hyper tryharding. Got kids? Spend time with them.

              Yes indeed, burn baby, burn if you’ve got nothing else going for you. But don’t worry; you’re not alone. It’s a fairly substantial bunch out there with mental illness and a defunct neocortex. The exact number is 99.9%.

            • Tom says:

              Guess I’ll turn to alcoholism. As good a way to go out as any

            • Fast Eddy says:

              It’s racist to not snort cocaine

            • Fast Eddy says:

              The world is coming to an end.

              If cocaine and loose women are on your bucket list then why not.

              Try turning your power off for 24 hours to get a feel for what’s coming.

              Have you seen this? https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=220

              I’m going skiing tomorrow – as I did today .. and again Saturday … afterwards I’ll go to the VIP room for some Grinding.

              Meanwhile…

              Let’s go Fat Old Prick!
              I keep a drum like I’m Nick Cannon, ayy, ayy, ayy, ayy (Brrt, brrt)
              Let’s go Fat Old Prick!
              Pandemic ain’t real, they just planned it, ayy, ayy (They just planned it)
              Let’s go Fat Old Prick!
              When you ask questions, they start bannin’, ayy, ayy (Facts)
              Let’s go Fat Old Prick!, ayy, ayy (Ayy, let’s go, Brandon)
              Let’s go Fat Old Prick!Let’s go, Brandon
              I keep a drum like I’m Nick Cannon, ayy, ayy (Pow, pow)
              Let’s go Fat Old Prick!

              https://i.postimg.cc/gkdH4HRr/Giant-Fat-Bastard-Having-the-Rules-Explained.png

          • Fast Eddy says:

            I feel Tom’s despair …

            Try Xanax Tom. I am told it numbs the disappointment of Extinction.

            You can take it out on a Pfizer salesperson…

        • Fast Eddy says:

          There is no answer. We will be extinct soon

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Yes, there indeed has been a collapse in capital expenditures. Even now that profits are higher, we read that companies aren’t interested in new capital expenditure.

      I thought I read earlier about the possibility of new drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, but perhaps this is perhaps not as profitable as companies would like.

    • Jan says:

      This is what we are talking about the whole time. Welcome!

      Let’s say with virus and vax they are shedding ballast. You take the formula energy divided by capita is life standard and calculate without ballast a smaller capita and thus a higher life standard. So plenty of that additional life standard could be used for the extraction of oil.

      Now the idea of system theory is: we cannot get the oil out of the grounds because we need scaling effects to develop technology. And we need technology because the oil that can be extracted by simple means is already gone.

      It is not about reserves it is about pumpability.

      Now the big point is: when?

      • Kowalainen says:

        “we need scaling effects to develop technology.”

        Not only the scale but in a low-pop mode “we” need extremely resilient gear to keep the “machine” huffing and puffing while gradually degrading.

        The “machine” is in itself a behemoth that demands resources. The question is how to scale it up and for which reasons?

        Abundance, luxuries and conveniences seem to do no good on rapacious primates. Makes us sick physically and mentally.

        I’d postulate that the purpose of the “machine” is to enable the eradication of drudgery. Hard labor for mere sustenance is a waste of mind.

        Don’t “we” need a bit of escapism, fantasy, drama and comedy while evolution does its “job”, no?

        I’d say, let’s keep the machinery operational while we chill out with the hyper Tryhard and hyper MOARon, and figure out a way through the Jungian “shadow” (archaic primate instincts) each one of us individually? No?

  30. Fast Eddy says:

    A beloved baby boy described as ‘boisterious’ by his family has been left with serious brain damage after suffering a stroke on his first birthday. Blake Hanchett, 17 months old, is now mentally and physically disabled and cannot walk or talk after a series of devastating strokes, reports YorkshireLive.

    The alarm was first raised by grandmother Janet after she noticed one of his arms had become floppy, with his mum Kelly, 29, finding his condition had seriously ‘deteriorated’ after she raced over to his aid only five minutes later. After being taken to hospital, Blake suffered at least four more strokes and spent the next 16 weeks at Leeds General Infirmary.

    Doctors believe Blake has a genetic condition that means he was born with narrow carotid arteries in his neck, as well as further narrowed blood vessels that cannot be operated on. He has also been diagnosed with dystonia, which can causes movement spasms and contractions.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/much-loved-baby-boy-left-27643760

    And this one should slit his mother’s throat

    This is just funny https://twitter.com/policia/status/1555465161271644164

    Spanish player Kirian Rodríguez, who plays for UD Las Palmas in the Second Division of Spanish football, told a press conference on Tuesday that he has Hodgkin’s lymphoma, a type of cancer. The footballer will have to leave the pitch for an indefinite period of time, but he will remain close to his teammates: “I’m going to continue giving instructions from the stands, heavy, pointing everywhere and yelling at everyone,” said the midfielder humorously. Rodríguez affirms that his fight begins now and that his wish was that they see him strong. He promised to return to the courts in December.

    No age reported.

    https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/video/las-palmas-kirian-rodriguez-linfoma-hodgkin-deportes/

    • kulmthestatusquo
      kulmthestatusquo says:

      The fact that his mum is 20 tells everything we need to know about this story.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        She was probably out clubbing and off her face and conceived in the disabled toilet with an old geezer in diapers who’s 5x vaxxed (why he was at a club way past his bed time is another mystery)… and this is karma

  31. Fast Eddy says:

    Two sixth-year medical students with no known previous medical history complained about palpitations and chest pain during their night shift. They had their first dose of BNT162b2 two and four days prior.

    https://tinyurl.com/bdfr4mnv

  32. Fast Eddy says:

    Red Wave Ahead: Biden’s Paxlovid Nightmare Exposes the Need to Make Doctors Great Again
    I was a Democrat until Democrats denied the world the drug that could have ended the pandemic in exchange for profit and power, killing millions (and lying about me every single day).

    Pierre Kory, MD, MPA

    Today, while giving a speech on the South Lawn of the White House touting his signing of a $200 billion semiconductor chips legislation, President Joe Biden “could barely utter one sentence without stopping to cough for minutes on end.”
    President Biden, said by his doctor to be a “healthy, vigorous” seventy-nine-year-old man, finally left White House quarantine yesterday for Delaware, declared free of the covid-19 virus and re-joining his wife after a nightmarish 19-day covid ordeal. But today, while giving a speech on the White House South Lawn, he couldn’t stop coughing for minutes at a time, though his doctors declared him this morning free of the virus. Don’t say I didn’t warn you: You are about to enter Clown World.

    Coughing, fatigue, a sore throat, runny nose, and body aches dogged the president after his July 21 positive covid test. He was given Paxlovid, the absurdly flawed but highly profitable Pfizer drug approved by his administration for treatment of mild covid cases. Biden was reported cleared of the virus, then suffered a rebound infection July 30 known, along with many perilous drug interactions, to be associated with Paxlovid. Dr. Robert Malone and other scientists speculated that in fact the virus never left the president’s body but kept dangerously mutating, “truly the worst case scenario for a single mechanism of action drug used as a therapy against COVID-19.” Dangerous for us all.

    Meanwhile, one of my good friends, an eighty-four-year-old man with heart disease and diabetes, came down with covid last week. He took a .4 mg/kg dose of ivermectin according to the world-renowned FLCCC.net covid treatment protocol, and was completely free of symptoms in two hours. His wife took the recommended prevention dose of .2 mg/kg and never got sick.

    https://rescue.substack.com/p/red-wave-ahead-bidens-paxlovid-nightmare

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The article says, “he couldn’t stop coughing for minutes at a time.”

      It seems like someone would have told President Biden to stay home a little longer. Something is wrong if he couldn’t stop coughing, and he is still getting over COVID.

    • MM says:

      I think the problem here is not about “waking up” but about accepting death.

      Death of your illusions.

  33. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Laos economic crisis intensifies amid massive Chinese debt

    Laos is facing one of its worst economic crises in decades, with the country experiencing galloping inflation and staring at a debt default.

    Laos’ economy has been on the brink of collapse due to a spiraling debt crisis that is crippling the country’s finances and bringing it perilously close to default.

    In June, the Southeast Asian nation’s Statistics Bureau announced that inflation hit a 22-year high of 23.6%, causing staple goods to become scarce and eroding the population’s purchasing power.

    Meanwhile, according to the World Bank, Laos’ foreign and domestic debt has ballooned to more than $14.5 billion (€14.2 billion). “It is on the brink of default,” Anushka Shah, vice president and senior credit officer at Moody’s Investors Service, stated unequivocally in mid-June.

    Laos’ foreign exchange reserves are so low that experts believe there is no way out for the small, landlocked nation without external assistance to help fulfil its debt obligations.

    Laos owes about half of its foreign debt to China, which has lent the money to finance infrastructure projects such as hydropower plants and railway lines.

    With Vientiane facing hard times now, focus has turned to how Beijing will handle the situation and will it be in favor of offering some form of a bailout or debt forgiveness.
    https://www.dw.com/en/laos-economic-crisis-intensifies-amid-massive-chinese-debt/a-62758725

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      China has lent a huge amount of money to countries around the world to finance both its “Belt and Road” initiatives and oil infrastructure. There may be other China-financed debt as well. A whole lot of this debt is likely up for default as well. This adds to the world’s economic problem.

      • Xabier says:

        The Chinese lending model – disguised as innocent ‘non-imperialist philanthropy’ – is a contemporary version of early British imperialism.

        Native rulers were offered generous ‘assistance’ by the British – of various kinds – which later resulted in the seizure of assets or even entire states in payment.

        This worked most successfully in India, and cleverly they let many Indian princes continue the good life.

        The problem for the Chinks must now be enforcement.

        The Brits had a powerful navy, and smaller but very well-trained army, to do that. What can Xi and his successors muster?

    • Fast Eddy says:

      How do people – who were already on the edge — survive this level of inflation …

      Do they eat rice with a bit of salt?

  34. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Langya Henipavirus Reported In China, 35 People Infected, Alert Issued: Report

    What is Zoonotic Langya Virus?

    Taiwan’s CDC Deputy Director General Chuang Jen-hsiang said on Sunday that according to a study, the virus has not been reported from human to human. However, he also said that he is yet to determine whether the virus can spread between humans or not.

    Chuang said that the 35 people found infected in China did not have close contact with each other. He told that symptoms of fever, fatigue, cough, loss of appetite, muscle pain, headache and vomiting were seen in 26 infected.

    Apart from this, complaints of low platelets, liver failure and kidney failure have also been reported.
    https://news.abplive.com/news/zoonotic-langya-virus-found-in-china-35-infected-so-far-know-all-details-layv-taiwan-1547298

    • Michael Le Merchant
      Michael Le Merchant says:

      Deja-flu: China sounds alarm as 35 people fall ill with ‘newly identified’ Langya virus that is thought to have jumped from shrews

      ‘Contact tracing of nine patients with 15 close-contact family members revealed no close-contact LayV transmission.

      ‘But our sample size was too small to determine the status of human-to-human transmission for LayV.’

      Langya is hepinavirus — the same family as Nipah virus, which is a deadly pathogen that is usually found in bats.

      Like Covid, Nipah can spread through respiratory droplets. But it is far more deadly, killing up to three-quarters of people it infects.

      It has been listed as one of the viruses most likely to cause the next pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO).

      The brain-swelling virus was first discovered in Malaysia and Singapore in 1999, when 300 cases led to 100 deaths.
      https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11095995/Langya-virus-Warning-brand-new-virus-detected-China.html

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        This sounds like as good an excuse any to close down cities, or keep people from undertaking certain activities.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        When you have VAIDS… anything can be deadly

  35. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Monkeypox reported at Sterling Heights Assembly Plant as infections rise across Detroit area

    The report of a monkeypox case at giant Sterling Heights Assembly poses not just a risk to the 7,000 Stellantis employees who work there, but to the wider population in the vast surrounding metropolitan area. The disease can spread through skin to skin contact as well as aerosol droplets. It can spread through contaminated fabric and surfaces and the virus can remain alive for weeks outside the body. Contrary to the claim that monkeypox is a threat mainly to gay men, past studies indicate that over 40 percent of infections occur among women.

    As for the claim that monkeypox is not a serious illness, studies from Africa where the disease is endemic, show it has a case fatality rate similar to that of COVID-19. Some 10 percent of those infected require hospitalization due to the severe symptoms, including excruciating pain. The virus, which is related to smallpox although less deadly, can cause severe lesions on any part of the body, including the face, and can cause blindness or asphyxiation. Permanent and disfiguring scars can result.
    https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/08/09/rwgx-a09.html

    • MM says:

      rintrah, Radagast says the time cases in women are rising, we might reach escape velocity.
      A global monkeypox pandemic with numbers as with c9/11 will be very very difficult to resist.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Someone was challenging FE over the existence of viruses on SS…

        Fast Eddy lay down a Challenge….

        FE invited the guy to attended a Birthday Orgi … there will be 50 gay men attending all infected with M-pox… the guy chooses 20 of them to get carnal with him… then we see if he gets Poxarse. And if he did – what caused it

        He did not reply.

        • Tsubion says:

          It’s caused by the poppers (amyl nitrate) and all the other drugs these people take, lack of hygeine etc. Nothing to do with non existent particles that hunt you down in the middle of the night. you still believe in fairy tales and horror stories. Time to grow up.

    • Xabier says:

      Wow, pulling out all the stops on this one aren’t they?

      Living ‘for weeks’ outside the body, just wandering around, stopping here and there to spread itself on any conceivable surface, looking for a victim to inflict excruciating pain on, disfigure and choke to death!

      And as dangerous and terrifying as Covid, which of course, wasn’t very dangerous at all……

      I look forward to seeing what Malone and Yeadon have to say about this in due course.

      • Tsubion says:

        Yeadon has accepted that there are NO pathogenic viruses. Disease is caused through other mechanisms. You have all been deceived and still believe the lie. Thankfully, the tide is turning. A new paradigm shall arise. And of course people will say they new all along.

        • MM says:

          I am not sure if he said something about respiratory virii.
          The point is: The environment of the earth has some harbingers of death just in case a feeble being is encountered.
          Whatever structure these carriers of information have.

          If you are healthy, “monkeypox” is not an issue. It has probably been around ever since. As c9/11.
          There has been a spike protein in c9/11 and for some reason it jumped out of the platonic realm. And now we injected it into the people because they all wanted to have it.
          Having this adds you a marker for the harbingers: make this guy develop some problems and see how he and the others cope with it. If they can’t, let’s mow them down so the others have free resources (*cough*).
          It sound like a contradiction but life includes death.

  36. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Yields on US junk rated consumer debt loans are rising
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZu-AC0WAAEpF3O?format=jpg&name=large

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      These yields are “over Treasuries.” New loans on subprime autos and subprime personal loans are going to have much higher monthly payments in the near future, making them less attractive to would-be debtors.

  37. MM says:

    Here is a video by Mercola and Wood about Technocracy.
    I have read the technocracy course and at that time I did not really see it as being so bad.
    The original manuscript does not contain social engineering (as far as I remember):

    https://archive.org/details/TechnocracyStudyCourseUnabridged

    The main pont in Technocracy and this interview was :
    An energy based money as a steering element for what should be produced where when.

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/KYvNNTKAWWwG/

    If the economy is an energy system, a money based on “energy” is not much different from a money based on a basket of resources…

    Wood is a liberal that does not accept resource limits or environmental issues.

    If we came over it, we could really change the course of our ship, because we would take the problems serious and look at the solutions with an open mind.
    Currently we have it more sort of hammered in. That does not need to be the case…

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The big difference is that the money based system keeps expanding, far faster than resources.

      An energy-based system expands reasonably quickly at first, then every more slowly. At some point, it turns around and shrinks.

      Our economy depends on ever-more debt. This is possible with a money system that keeps expanding. I can’t see that an energy based system based financial system can work, in a real world situation, because increasing debt is what pulls the system forward.

      Disclosure: I haven’t watched this video. I expect M. King Hubbert and others behind the technocracy system did not understand the role that growing debt plays in keeping the economy moving forward, especially as growth in energy consumption slows.

      • MM says:

        Well, in the case of debt there is a problem here because you can not make a debt on energy resources. You can only draw them down.
        Or create renewables if you like.

        I really recommend reading the technocracy course although it has a lot of text outside the economy but is in reality a science based approach. I mean science as in physics, chemistry and so on.

        I also recommend watching the video because it touches on the fundamentals of the survailance capitalism development.
        And it touches on the topic of “management of scarce resources” by some sort of incentivising system (*cough*)

        AND it touches on the topic of the biggest heist in history when a crisis is being used to create ever more debt aka slavery.

        The question about debt can be asked in the above issue for China on “Will the debt bubble burst”.
        I think the institutional lenders always think this time it will be different but the heads of the IMF and the BIS of course know that debt can NOT rise indefinitely.

        Either you cancel the debt or the currency holding the debt right with it and all the holders of the currency as well.

        I do not think that this is exactly what we the people want.

  38. Filters, filters, filters. A/C filters, oil filters, cabin air filters, engine filters, HEPA filters, particulate filters, microfilters. ‘Replace your filter every 2 – 3 months’. ‘Filters should be replaced regularly to ensure long-term functioning of your device’.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      There are an awfully lot of things we need an ongoing supply of, and filters are some of them. We even need filters for many coffee-making machines.

      Supposedly, some filters can even keep germs out. Some buildings have added advanced filtration systems to try to keep germs down.

      Masks sort of serve as filters, too. They need to be replaced from time to time, or at least washed.

    • Hubbs says:

      Probably the most important is, or will be, water filters. I run a Big Berkeley water filter with the black carbon filter on top and the arsenic, cadmium, and heavy metal filter below. There was a batch of faulty Berkeley black filters of which I had stocked up on- at least a half a dozen were bad and I poste about these quality control issues- may have even been counterfeits, as H Zillow. The glue seal at the bottom with the plastic hub was faulty and water would leak around and go unfiltered. Hence the red dye test at a minimum of every 6 months.

      I thought buying the biggest Berkeley Filter system was over kill, but between coffee and just drinking water during the hot summer, it is incredible how much water I go through. Also keep four 55 gallon blue food grade UHMWPE water barrels along with food grade garden hoses and faucet adaptors on stand by for immediate filling if need be, so hopefully won’t have to rely on a rain water collection system from my roof in the event of a water supply shut down.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Can they filter radiation out of the water?

        • doomphd – Honolulu – I really hold a doctor of philosophy (phd) in geological sciences and study pretty doomy topics like giant landslides, volcanic eruptions and megatsunamis.
          doomphd says:

          if they filter out heavy metals (charcoal) they will remove radiation from the water. removal efficiency will depend on the amounts encountered relative to the size of the filter.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            hahahahaha. Don’t be silly!

            And how do you remove the radiation from the surface of plants after it rains… and from the soil that is surrounding your house — they how do you remove it from your body and prevent cancer?

            hahaha

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Of course, you don’t really want to take out all of the minerals with filters. Reverse osmosis filters take out too much. The water needs some calcium and magnesium in it.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          If you can filter out the radiation you just clean out the filter and dump the radioactive stuff… you dump it… ah… well just dump it in the garden cuz that’s where the radioactive rain will fall for thousands of years hahaha

          It’s all good

  39. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    UK Braces for Blackouts, Gas Cuts in January in Emergency Plan

    (Bloomberg) — The UK is planning for several days over the winter when cold weather may combine with gas shortages, leading to organized blackouts for industry and even households.

    Under the government’s latest “reasonable worst-case scenario,” Britain could face an electricity capacity shortfall totaling about a sixth of peak demand, even after emergency coal plants have been fired up, according to people familiar with the government’s planning.

    Under that outlook, below-average temperatures and reduced electricity imports from Norway and France, could expose four days in January when the UK may need to trigger emergency measures to conserve gas, they said. The government Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

    While the UK doesn’t envisage such shortfalls under its base case, the analysis lays bare the difficult winter potentially in store for Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak when they succeed Boris Johnson as prime minister next month. If they materialize, the power cuts would come even as Britons face up to average annual energy bills possibly rising above £4,200 ($5,086) in January from just under £2,000 currently, stoking already soaring inflation.

    If the winter is particularly cold, Britain may have to rely increasingly on pipeline shipments of gas from mainland Europe — where supplies are already thin as Moscow curbs flows. That presents a dilemma for the UK, which has very little domestic storage capacity. The nation has been shipping record amounts of gas to the continent and will want the favor returned when temperatures plunge.
    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/uk-braces-for-blackouts-gas-cuts-in-january-in-emergency-plan-1.1803500#:~:text=UK%20Braces%20for%20Blackouts%2C%20Gas%20Cuts%20in%20January%20in%20Emergency%20Plan,-Alex%20Wickham%20and&text=(Bloomberg)%20%2D%2D%20The%20UK%20is,for%20industry%20and%20even%20households.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I remember reading earlier that the reason that the UK doesn’t have much natural gas storage is because the tax law operates in a way that makes any company that tries to provide such storage non-competitive. (Or perhaps it is the current method of competitive rates.)

      It seems like natural gas storage is something that governments would have thought ahead to subsidize. Alternatively, the might make the financial easy under the workings of the tax law. But if they had no clue of what is ahead (Renewables will save us, tomorrow), they would not think this through.

    • “UK Braces for Blackouts, Gas Cuts in January”

      Average temperature daily lows are 1 °C in UK in January, and lower in Scotland, so fuel poverty/ blackouts are not going to be much fun for very many millions of people.

      There were 46,000 excess winter deaths in UK in 2017, and 92% were over-65s and cold related. The figure may be horrendous this winter. It will be the elderly that bears the brunt of it.

      • yx says:

        The UK has great Natural Gas resources but is too brainwashed to allow its extraction. Pooty Poot funds the Antis and fuels the fears of these left wingnuts. Shiver me timbers is a comin……..buy wool!

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          I expect that they are too expensive to get out and sell profitably.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Q4 Boom?

      This is thrilling stuff!

      • CTG says:

        The question: do we need to wait until Jan 2023 for UK to implode from GBP4k electric bill? Do we need something to drop to zero before serious things happen? The oil embargo of 1970s… the drop, if I am not mistaken was just 10%…

    • Mrs S says:

      I live in the UK.

      My neighour has terminal cancer (she has 4-8 weeks to live). She has very kindly offered to give me her store of logs.

      At least we won’t freeze.

  40. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    The Great European Energy Crisis Is Now Coming for Your Food

    (Bloomberg) — At Brioche Pasquier’s 240,000 square feet factory about an hour away from London, every roll that comes out of giant gas-fired ovens now costs at least 50% more to make.

    From butter to eggs and sugar, most of the raw materials the French baker uses to make croissants, brioches and pains au chocolat had already increased in price as commodities rallied over the past year. But the company is now also contending with soaring energy bills.

    It’s a double whammy for food makers, and a cost that’s quickly felt in the pocket of consumers grappling with a cost-of-living crisis. In the UK, the Bank of England expects inflation will peak at more than 13% this year, a third of UK households are set to spend more than 10% of incomes on energy, and now surging grocery costs are driving up food poverty.

    “It is the domino effect that has happened with us having to take a huge increase on energy,” said Ryan Peters, the managing director of Brioche Pasquier UK Ltd., who runs the factory in Milton Keynes. “We have to try and raise our prices to retailers a little bit, and unfortunately that goes on to consumers.”

    World food prices hit a record earlier this year as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine starved the world of key products including wheat and vegetable oils. And while global costs have started to ease — dropping for a fourth month in July — consumers are unlikely to get much reprieve.

    That’s because food makers in Europe are now contending with high energy prices, with gas, coal and electricity trading at multiples of normal levels. And the worst is yet to come as dark and freezing winter days set in, boosting demand for energy for heating and power generation.

    “Whether it’s roasting coffee or making sugar from beets, companies are so far only talking about the increase in raw materials,” said Kona Haque, head of research for commodities trader ED&F Man. “I think the worst is still to come as energy prices rise. This winter will be a game changer and processing costs will likely go up.”
    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-great-european-energy-crisis-is-now-coming-for-your-food-1.1803286#:~:text=(Bloomberg)%20%2D%2D%20At%20Brioche%20Pasquier's,least%2050%25%20more%20to%20make.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      World food prices hit a record earlier this year as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine starved the world of key products including wheat and vegetable oils.

      Blame it on the rain.

      Blame it on Ukraine.

      Temporary… right?

  41. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Market Rout Sends State and City Pension Funds to Worst Year Since 2009

    Public pension plans lost a median 7.9% in the year ended June 30, according to Wilshire Trust Universe Comparison Service data to be released Tuesday, their worst annual performance since 2009 and a fresh sign of the chronic financial stress facing governments and retirement savers.

    Much of the damage occurred in April, May and June, when global markets came under intense pressure driven by concerns about inflation, high stock valuations and a broad retreat from speculative investments including cryptocurrencies. Funds that manage the retirement savings of teachers, firefighters and police officers returned a median minus 8.9% for that three-month period, their worst quarterly performance since the early months of the global pandemic.

    “It was a really, really bad quarter for investing, there’s no way around it,” said Michael Rush, a senior vice president at Wilshire.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/market-rout-sends-state-and-city-pension-funds-to-worst-year-since-2009-11660009928?st=av34wxkciakx6wc&reflink=desktopwebshare_twitter

  42. ivanislav says:

    Most of the ocean depths are greater than 2 miles – if we manage ultra-deepwater drilling, we can postpone peak oil by decades. Offshore is naturally going to see a resurgence, whether or not ultra-deepwater ever becomes feasible.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/offshore-drilling-coming-back-bang

    • peak oil has nothing to do with quantity

      and everything to do with usability

      A……The energy contained within a barrel of oil is fixed by the laws of physics.

      B…….It is necessary to use a certain amount of energy to extract, refine and distribute that oil (that too is subject to physical laws.)

      as long as A exceeds B by a comfortable margin, our BAU can continue. We can use that surplus’ to do other things.

      As that margin shrinks, as it is doing right now, our BAU becomes unsustainable and starts to collapse.

      As A gets closer and closer to B, oil extraction ceases (no matter how much is ‘down there’),

      At that point we go into wars of denial. (it’s all a hoax folks)

      Those wars will destroy the remaining oil infrastructure. (without that, renewables cannot function)

      And modern civilisation ends.

      When?–maybe during the next 10 years.

      Nothing involving Nostradamus—just simple logic.

      • ivanislav says:

        “peak oil has nothing to do with quantity”

        Well, it has everything to do with (1) availability and (2) required resources and labor input to extract it. If problems with offshore are solved, BAU may continue longer than folks here expect. I didn’t see you write antyhing that negates that.

        • .”…..peak oil has nothing to do with quantity

          and everything to do with usability……”’

          you split my sentence in two, to alter its meaning

          ”required resources” have to be paid for with money–but money is just a token of energy exchange.

          if your extracted oil is worth less, in energy terms, than the energy you use to extract it, then the oil will stay in the ground.

          ie you not only have to extract the oil–but turn the oil into something else which is both profitable and useful….the ‘surplus’.

          most people think of oil as ‘valuable’—but it is worth nothing until it is used—don’t ‘get ‘ that?

          the saudis had oil for 1000s of years—they didn’t get ‘rich’ until someone took it away and burned it on their behalf.

          offshore problems won’t be solved, because you run into the same problems as ive outline above—not me being bloody minded—just simple laws of physics you can check for yourself, the deeper you go, the higher your energy costs to get hold of the stuff.

          and even if you ‘found’ a dozen more saudis, the ancilliary materials would not be available to render it into goods and wages.

          like i said, quantity and usability a are part of the same energy dance.

          and the music is going to stop i’m afraid

          • while you are entirely correct about the “quality” issues…

            “peak oil has nothing to do with quantity”

            if world production was 10 barrels per day, we wouldn’t be discussing quality.

            quantity is absolutely essential.

            if a coal user had to burn a lower quality of coal with say 10% less energy content, they could offset this by burning 10% more.

            peak conventional oil in 2005.

            the quality has degraded ever since then.

            the response of IC?

            increased quantity through 2018.

            again:

            the response to lower quality was increased quantity up to 2018.

            you are correct about the quality issues.

            • reading back over my comments, I couldn’t find the word ‘quality’.

              as far as i am aware, oil quality must be held in respect to the use to which it is put, irrespective of quantity.

              If you have low quality oil–adding a higher quantity of quality oil just leaves you with more low quality oil. Unless I’m missing something.

              my comment was intended to stress the need to find uses for oil that had commercial value

            • gpdawson2016
              gpdawson2016G says:

              David, I have to chime in here too.

              “ if a coal user had to burn a lower quality of coal with say 10% less energy content, they could offset this by burning 10% more”

              They could but this takes time out of his day and that lowers the EROI in this poor man’s world.

            • a little while ago i was talking to a group of people running a vintage steam train line

              complaining that they had been supplied with low grade coal, and no matter much the put into the engine, it wouldnt raise enough steam to move it

            • quality, meaning it’s good enough to have “usability”.

              okay so the coal was too low quality for its intended use, so a lower usability.

              the world’s oil sellers sell 97 mbpd, and the buyers buy 97 mbpd.

              none of these buyers seem to be having a problem with too low oil usability.

              the world keeps finding good uses for 97 mbpd.

              my comment was countering your “peak oil has nothing to do with quantity”.

              quantity matters.

            • nikoB says:

              That is an interesting point Norm about steam engine trains. To use a lower grade coal the boiler/burner area must be made larger but then that directly impacts on the efficiency/size of engine/train. EROEI at play.

            • Tim Groves says:

              I also appreciate Norman’s point about the declining quality of the coal supplied for that steam locomotive.

              The story reminds me of when I had my office rebuilt in 2015 and the building company used pine veneered plywood for the walls and ceiling. It was OK for the purpose of use, but was noticeably inferior in terms of finishing, splitting, missing knots in the wood pattern, etc., compared to the same type of plywood I had used on the walls and ceiling of a different room in 1997.

              I asked the carpenter about this, he told me that many kinds of timber-based products were no longer as good as they used to be, and that if you wanted higher quality, it was only available at a considerable premium.

              Fortunately, I don’t intend to drive my office, a steamin’ and a rollin’, so the quality issue in this case is merely a personal preference one.

            • Withnail says:

              complaining that they had been supplied with low grade coal, and no matter much the put into the engine, it wouldnt raise enough steam to move it

              I believe there is or was a grade of coal called ‘steam coal’ that the engines were built for.

            • rufustiresias999
              rufustiresias999 says:

              I’m not sure NikoB is right about the burner size of the vintage railway. It’s a matter of steam pressure, so steam temperature. I don’t know anything about fossil coal, but I know not all woods (oak, pine,…) have the equal combustion temperature.
              So the solution is maybe less wagons, less passengers. Which gives an interesting analogy for our world economic predicament…

            • Kowalainen says:

              “I believe there is or was a grade of coal called ‘steam coal’ that the engines were built for.”

              Obviously the firebox should be as small as possible to get more water into the boiler while maintaining the power output pulling the train. That’s why the “last in line” steam engines didn’t burn coal but rather oil in a puny firebox.

              A small firebox requires high calorific content of the coal/oil. Not really a problem for stationary heat engines. Just shove in more of it and regenerate.

              The same is true for ethanol/methanol burning race cars. Larger injectors to dump in the fuel. Cooler combustion temperatures isn’t always a problem if the total power output is higher.

        • drb753
          drb753 says:

          Excellent points. I lived in Brazil in 2007, and back then it was announced with great fanfare that a vast field lied in the atlantic north of Rio. Seismology data indicated it was sweet crude. to get to it, all you need to do is go through 2 km of water, 2 of rock, and 1 of salt. then it will be all yours.

          But before getting your hopes up, how are you going to build this platform? It needs to float, and it needs to be able to go up and down 40 meters due to waves. i say it is not going to happen. 2 km pylons are out of the question.

          • ivanislav says:

            “But before getting your hopes up, how are you going to build this platform?”

            Well that’s the question, isn’t it? Solutions need further development and we don’t know yet whether they’ll be viable either technically or economically.

            We can make submarines that withstand those depths – perhaps submarine oil tankers will be a thing and filling could happen underwater to bypass the waves issue. Maybe there doesn’t have a to be a platform after it’s been drilled a pipe is laid … idle speculation, I admit.

            • drb753
              drb753 says:

              It seems to me that a stretchable well (with the stretchable part in the water) is not a technology that they can provide. It would be leaking everywhere.

        • Dennis L. says:

          I’m with Norm on this one, can’t use 1.5 barrels to recover 1 barrel; losing a bit on each sale and making it up with volume does not work.

          Dennis L.

          • true but 1.5 is not the present reality.

            NOW it might be as low as 10 to 1, and that’s moving closer to where IC might collapse.

            but the ratio CAN’T be too low right NOW, because IC is still up and running.

            WHEN the ratio does get too low, then IC will collapse.

            but since the world is still producing about 97 MILLION bpd (down from about 100), that quantity tells me that there is right NOW no severe quality problem.

            • MM says:

              If you look at the whole earth as an energy system, you may find that even as 97mbl are being sold and used somewhere a deficit shows up as in Gail’s words “the interconnected economy shrinks in a strange way”. As finance directly shows mark to market when a thing is out of supply you may want to look at the global debt problem. That might blow up well before the heavy duty oil industry goes bust because it is a just in time system with very little resilience against no growth available. A pipeline is an asset that can withstand some children throwing stones at it. That does not apply to an excel sheet on a computer screen.
              The debt problem as Gail rightfully says masks a lot of “inefficiencies” in the economy….

          • ivanislav says:

            Well that’s exactly the question: is it technically feasible and if so, what’s the highest EROI we can muster?

            • Kowalainen says:

              Infinity:1

              It’s an IQ/complexity thing. There’s not enough cheap oil left to develop incredibly competent technical solutions for maximizing EROEI.

              And hoomans are… Hoomans.
              A lost cause…

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Some years ago I was informed by a university professor that we’d continue to extract oil if it took one barrel of oil to extract one barrel of oil.

              It was around that time that I began to realize that I was surrounded by billions of f789ing MOREONS

            • Kowalainen says:

              All we need to do really is to devise some incredible nano machinery that turns mineral into complexity powered by sunlight.

              As the nano machinery dies off it forms deposits of carbon and hydrocarbons.

              What else; yes, a suitable planet reasonably close to a star. Preferably with lots of water.

              Just add time and wait.

            • Tim Groves says:

              If there was enough cheap oil left to develop incredibly competent solutions for maximizing EROEI, we wouldn’t bother. That’s not the kind of society we live in, and that’s not the kind of species we are.

              We’d just keep using the cheap oil for trivial purposes until there was no longer enough left.

              This is one of the most profound, relevant and poignant music videos I’ve ever posted.

              Don’t miss it!

            • Fast Eddy says:

              As I went round and round on the ski hill today the snow making machines were roaring away sucking up mega juice… Can there be a more pointless waste of electricity than downhill skiing?

              It must be why I enjoy it so much – it complements my coal burning and my love of long haul flights.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Tim, thanks for the music video portraying Monkey Business 101.

              “If there’s one thing you can say about mankind
              There’s nothing kind about man
              You can drive out nature with a pitch fork
              But it always comes roaring back again”

              Yes, it goes something like this while devising a ridiculous contraption that uses copious amounts of energy for extracting diminishing amounts of the same energy: “It’s enough, that’ll do”.

              It sort of reminds of mankind. A beast, a vile primate contraption enormously busy with placating some archaic drivel showing it’s long tail as it tries to “reach the top”. It is not even absurd, rather tragicomic. All retch and no vomit in primate perpetuity.

              And then there’s these copium peddlers; Nietzsche and JBP basically telling people, males mostly, to go full attaboy with the Tryhardisms eventually to placate a hyper MOARon. It’s fucking horrendous.

            • Kowalainen says:

              “Can there be a more pointless waste of electricity than downhill skiing?”

              Commuting to “work” in a Tesla?

              Buy a snowmobile and rip up the hill burning fossil fuels instead. At least having fun while at it makes sense.

              https://youtu.be/m6lA0VJpTIA

              Skis are basically for self entitled wankers who can’t handle 200hp+ of two stroke fury.

              Cars are the same thing for self entitled princes and princesses who don’t dare to open up the taps on a 200hp+ crotch rocket.

              https://youtu.be/3CVAVAU5Tpg

              🐓 *bawk* *bawk*..
              🤣👍👍

              DO IT COWARD!
              JUST DO IT! 👟

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I agree – most people who ski are entitled wankers… other than FE… HE only does it so that HE has some contact with the MOREONS to prevent him from going Off the Deep End due to severe Genius… it’s either ski or listen to MORERM radio https://www.radio.net/s/morefmqueenstown

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Too $$$$$$$$

      We burned almost all the cheap stuff up

  43. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    One of the Decade’s Hottest Bond Markets Is Imploding in China

    (Bloomberg) — When investor demand for Chinese property debt was approaching its peak back in 2018, a banker could pull together the makings of a multi-million dollar deal during a Saturday boat trip around Hong Kong’s harbor and barely look up from her drink while doing it.

    Now, the $203 billion market—which once yielded several deals a week and padded portfolios across the world from Pimco to UBS—is all but dead. And offshore investors are swallowing almost all of the losses.

    Chinese property junk debt has been one of the most profitable and popular corporate bond trades of the past decade, built on the back of the nation’s economic growth engine and introduced to the world via Hong Kong. Since the first bonds emerged in 1997, institutions like Credit Suisse Group AG and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have brought international money flooding into an asset class where rewards were formidable and defaults extremely rare. In an era of negative-yielding assets, these bonds became a critical way for many global fixed-income investors to bolster returns. Even major pension funds and insurers bought in.

    “Hong Kong was a window for the world to access China’s high-yield credit and witness the golden era,” said Andy Chang, who was a private banker at a large global institution in the market’s 2018 heyday. He has now switched gears to become chief strategy officer for financial advisory Hermitage Capital.

    Only one major private developer had ever skipped its debt payments. Until last year.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-decades-hottest-bond-markets-000031912.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I think that this is an important article. I notice that the article says that it is US dollar denominated debts that are particularly defaulting this year. These defaults would particularly affect US investors and banks.

      According to the article:

      “It is a complete collapse of confidence in both the physical and capital market, as well as in the developers, that led us to where we are today,” said Jenny Zeng, co-head of Asia Pacific fixed income at AllianceBernstein. Authorities need to restore confidence across the entire economy, she added.

      The article shows a table of big dealmakers:

      Top 10 arrangers of Chinese developer bond deals at peak of market
      1. Haitong Securities
      2. Credit Suisse
      3. HSBC
      4. Goldman Sachs
      5. China Citic Bank
      6. Guotai Junan Securities
      7. UBS
      8. Bank of China
      9. Morgan Stanley
      10.Deutsche Banks
      Note: Data based on deals arranged from Jan. 1 2017 to Dec. 31 2019

      It seems to me as though these arrangers could be brought into the mess as well. Some of them are familiar names outside of China.

      This is a non-yahoo link to the Bloomberg article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-08-09/china-real-estate-market-junk-bond-trades-implode-as-mortgage-boycotts-roll-on?sref=eWpk04kZ

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Keep in mind Ed Dowd circulated this https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=2733

        So of course the financial world is aware of the situation in China — they would have also seen all the Ghost Towns….

        None of this is a secret… but the CBs try to delay the implosion .. keep in mind the CBs plunge protection teams have stopped the markets from imploding for many years now…

        This is a massive house of cards.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          I remember this recent video. It is very good.

          Over $9 trillion of debt at risk. China’s leaders view this as a political protest, not a banking crisis. Lost of shady accounting.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            This is yet another mass psychosis…

            The reality is that the CBs are desperately doing whatever it takes to keep BAU alive – have been doing so for a couple of decades…

            But the MOREONS are completely unaware of this – they just go about their business as if there is nothing wrong.

            Anyone who knows the entire contraption is on the verge of implosion is at a disadvantage in terms of investing as in you fear destruction of your capital — or you know it’s all going to zero so why bother… (I’m a little in both camps)

            Again this demonstrates the existence of a false world… a Matrix…

            Most people live in DelusiSTAN. It’s quite pleasant to live there… in ignorance… and bliss

            • MM says:

              The saying goes “capitalism is efficient”.
              May I raise a complaint about having to work all days for money whereas some people just call the FED?
              Because we have to use the same money as them we are always f789ed.
              It is by design but the official term is this is either a CT or latent antisemitism right away.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I also notice this related zero hedge article:
      https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-someone-tells-you-they-predicted-theyre-lying-through-their-teeth-except-everyone-did

      It shows a chart that is titled, The Chinese property market is likely the largest asset class in the world.

      https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/china%20property%20market%20world%27s%20largest%20asset_13.jpg

      The total value in US dollars is shown in trillion US$. If this is the case, there are an awfully lot of pension funds and other types of investment funds that could be adversely affected.

        • Kim says:

          They built a lot of apartments while their population shrank at the fastest pace since The Great Leap Forward.

          On some issues I give the CCP high marks for planning. On other issues, not so much.

          • MM says:

            The thing just failed because we introduced a free market here. Won’t do this again. promised.

            Yours CCP

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Ya they should have stuck with communism and not leaped forward

            • drb753
              drb753 says:

              Communism depends on infinite growth too. Perhaps not as much as capitalism, but their run is over.

            • MM says:

              @drb753
              Yeah, damn them f789ing growth fetish materialists. All of them!

            • Kowalainen says:

              MM,

              How about materialism for the sake of it. Good Shit™ is good shit. Nobody declines gear that is:

              1. Of high quality
              2. Built with top notch materials
              3. Delivers relief from drudgery
              4. Is inherently practical
              5. Ideally is self-powered

              Growth/exponential materialism is just an exercise in diminishing returns ultimately producing copious volumes of pure and utter jank.

  44. Tim Groves says:

    People in Britain are facing “a winter of dire poverty” amid skyrocketing energy costs, former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown said on Saturday, urging the government to approve an emergency budget. According to the Labour politician, the continued increase in fuel prices places “35 million people in 13m households – an unprecedented 49.6% of the population of the United Kingdom,” in risk of fuel poverty in October. Calling the situation a “financial timebomb,” he added that “there is nothing moral about indifferent leaders condemning millions of vulnerable and blameless children and pensioners to a winter of dire poverty.” This is why, Brown said, outgoing PM Boris Johnson, along with the Tory leadership candidates, former Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, “must this week agree an emergency budget.”

    “If they do not, parliament should be recalled to force them to do so.” He added that if nothing is done, another fuel price rise in January will leave 54% of the population in fuel poverty. The former prime minister said the scenes he has witnessed in his home county of Fife in Scotland remind him of things he read about from the 1930s – undernourished children, “pensioners choosing whether to feed their electricity meters or themselves,” and nurses having “to queue up at their food bank.” Poverty is “hitting so hard” that charities are unable to ease the burden on people, Brown said, adding that “Britain is creating a left-out generation of young boys and girls,” whose childhoods “are starting to resemble shameful scenes from a Dickens novel.” [..] The typical annual household fuel bill is expected to rise to around £3,500 from October, three times higher than last year. The real household post-tax income “is projected to fall sharply in 2022 and 2023, while consumption growth turns negative,” the Bank of England said.

    https://www.rt.com/news/560403-poverty-fuel-uk-brown/

    • Jan says:

      Same in Austria and Germany. Though Brent shall be around $ 110, too little for the producers. Something is fucked up!

      • Jan

        the ‘something is fucked up’ part is very easy to understand

        100 years ago, oil gave a return of 100:1

        now the best oilwells give a return of 19:1 (fracking and tarsands give single digit returns)
        That has been the case for a number of years.

        We masked that reality by subsidising our economic system with debt. (ie creating money) That way we could go on pretending oil was giving us 100:1 returns. It wasn’t.

        Our lifestyle is crumbling beneath our feet, because we are having to run 5 x as fast just to stand still, while still pretending ‘more oil’ will solve our problems.

        It won’t. Oil is getting harder and harder to get hold of. (it will never ‘run out’ btw)

        Because we are having to work 5x as hard to exist, there’s no money left over to live the good life.
        Or much of a life at all really.

        • 5X really?

          100 to 1 meant 99% surplus energy.

          20 to 1 means 95% surplus energy (1 of 20 used up in extraction = 5%)

          10 to 1 will mean 90% surplus energy.

          simple math which explains why bAU in IC continues to roar.

          Europe agreeing to far lower “quantity” is a far bigger issue, as you will see this winter.

          quantity matters.

      • Alex says:

        What do you mean by “too little for the producers”?

        “The secretary-general of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, lashed out at the oil and gas industry, accusing it of ‘grotesque greed’ and calling for additional taxes on their profits. Guterres noted that for the first quarter alone, the combined profits of the world’s largest oil and gas companies were ‘close to $100 billion’ and urged all governments to tax these profits.”

        https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/UN-Chief-Urges-Tax-On-Oil-Industry-For-Grotesque-Greed.html

        • Replenish says:

          Quick search on “how do oil companies spend profits? resulted in 1) increasing shareholder profits 2) lobbying efforts to access cheap leases to drill for future profits 3) stock options and pay increases for management and employees 4) green energy (lots of criticism for “greenwashing.”

          Quick search on “Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres” resulted in devout Catholic and militant youth Marxist and one of 25 vice-presidents of Socialist International.

          Social Democrat former PM of Portugal:

          “Guterres ran on a platform of keeping a tight hold on budget spending and inflation in a bid to ensure that Portugal met the Euro convergence criteria by the end of the decade, as well as increasing rates of participation in the labor market, especially among women, improving tax collection and cracking down on tax evasion, increased involvement of the mutual and nonprofit sectors in providing welfare services, a means-tested guaranteed minimum income (known as the Rendimento Minimo Garantido), and increased investment in education.”

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      It is more than a left-out generation. The system cannot be quickly fixed.

    • laetitiavocatur
      All is Dust says:

      Brown and Blair squandered the wealth of the UK (North Sea Oil) on illegal wars and ineffective social programmes. Now they are coming back from the dead to tell everyone off.

      • Wolfbay says:

        Norway saved some of their North Sea oil wealth and now has a huge sovereign wealth fund. Maybe some governments can function properly at times.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          They should have spent it — cuz it’s going to 0.

          This is a truly terrible government

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          As long as the securities that they bought don’t crash.

        • lidiaseventeen
          lidiaseventeen says:

          They will be spending it on ‘migrants’. The energy gradients will be broken down.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Perhaps they don’t want an emergency budget cuz they know Q4 is Boom.

      And part of the plan is to starve and freeze us so we do not resist as we are exterminated.

      Sounds a bit out there… but it is completely logical… 100% what one would do when faced with a tipping point on energy — that will result – and it will result …

      In mass murder – rape – disease – cannibalism — and finally cancer causing radiation.

      Dead is dead. Extinct is extinct.

      Why not stop the mass suffering if you can?

      Keep Calm
      and
      Go Extinct

    • Fast Eddy says:

      TWO WHISTLEBLOWER NURSES FROM NELSON EMERGENCY DEPT (MANDATED OUT)…

      SPILLING THE BEANS IN AN EXTRAORDINARY WAY….

      Thank you brave wonderful women

      https://resistance.kiwi/nelson-hospital-emergency-department-staff-speak-out/?fbclid=IwAR3rxjWiRcjfTYYqYsiDx71-OhdOy1VvCFel2bQG1LRLRDNIS-ia5Jmorwk

    • Kim says:

      They clearly need more people from Congo and Pakistan. Around 16,000 a day should be about right.

      Can never have too many doctors and engineers.

  45. you do your best to save the world

    then a US senator drops this one:

    Sen. Tim Scott (R. S.C.):

    “If we don’t take back the Senate, Dems will pack the courts, grant statehood to DC, grant abortions up to 52 weeks, and Republicans will never win again.”

  46. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    NHS is sending POLICE officers to heart attack callouts due to paramedic shortages as new Health Secretary warns of triple winter threat of Covid, flu and cost of living and reveals plan to hire workers who can’t speak fluent English to plug staffing gaps
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11091027/NHS-sending-POLICE-officers-heart-attack-callouts-paramedic-shortage.html

    • not saying its true or untrue, but be wary of daily mail stuff

      they will print anything to sell papers

      • Xabier says:

        That’s journalism, isn’t it?

        So do tell us, dear old, poor Norman, what you read for Trusted News (TM) ?

        • a poor wretch like me disseminates the news

          and interprets it into such truth as seems obvious and logical.

          such as in 2011–writing that ‘Trump’ was inevitable for 2016

          or in 2018 writing that Putin was going to turn violent

          or (10 years ago) that our total crunch will come in the mid 2020s (how’s that looking so far???)

          plus a few other snippets.

          but how could i compare with your mentor when it comes to ‘truth’?—but innuendo is necessary to lend substance to your reading matter i imagine.

          watch where you’re treading–BS surrounds you.

          • Xabier says:

            Norman, we really don’t give a fig about your Nostrodamic predictions, so kindly desist from references to them.

            Once again, you failed to answer a direct and simple question, so….

            What about the poisoned children, Norman? Happy with that, are you?

            • lol xabier

              i’m too busy trying not to trip over those millions of dead and maimed people you so luridly described sometime last year,

              do you and eddy compare notes before you post on ofw?

              Don’t forget that at the start of 2020 covid was a hoax

              then it wasnt–but vaxxing was (that was into 21)

              Despite your tantrums, Ive been vaxxed myself, but have made no comment either way about other people. nor have i advised or otherwise about it
              Other than obvious lunatics who display ferrous objects sticking to their post-vaxxed flesh—and suchlike.

              you may find this hard to believe, but opinions other than yours do exist you know. Do try to establish a path not trodden by your mentor.

            • Xabier says:

              Now Norman, what is this ‘mentor’ rubbish?

              It is simply the case that FE and I both concur – like all decent people – in thinking you not only a moron (evident in all your comments when you venture beyond the Industrial Revolution, ‘spinning wheels, explosive force’, etc) but, even worse, someone who thinks children who are at no risk should be injected with a dangerous genetic tech in order to keep your poor, old, decaying carcass ‘safe’.

              Will it still be ‘LOL’ when your great-grandchildren are murdered or maimed?

              1 in 800, and rising,Norman: not good odds, with repeated shots.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              See norm …

              Xabier calls you a moron.

              FE calls you a MOERON.

              It’s not total alignment

            • Fast Eddy says:

              The world demands to know why norm supports injecting babies with this dangerously Safe but Effective substance

              Why norm?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        But the BBC is a ‘trusted news source’

        right norm?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      If a person has to pick a way to die, a heart attack isn’t a bad choice. Being stuck for years in a nursing home is not a good way to go, either for the patient or the health care system.

      • Xabier says:

        I’d agree, Gail: in many ways it’s the best of deaths.

        But what they are doing with the pseudo vaccines is still secret murder, and unfortunately more are being injured in their hearts than killed outright.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          An opiate-based death would no doubt be the gold standard… but how to get Fentanyl?

          Hubbs… are you able to write me a prescription?

          It would be wonderful to have a jar of this and look at it every morning knowing that there is a solution at hand as things get rough

          Oh look Hoolio is up on the hill pinching out a poop. He’s coming back now

        • Kim says:

          I call it iatrogenic murder.

      • Hubbs says:

        I have to hand it the Japanese. Although not like the Inuit who would simply walk out into the cold and die from exposure when they realized their time had come, Japanese simply die in their apartments and refuse to call for help. Bodies discovered days later. Sometimes weeks.

        • Xabier says:

          They even create employment for specialist cleaners, which is most considerate when one thinks about it.

          Socially-responsible, quiet, death, and economic stimulus all in one!

          • lidiaseventeen
            lidiaseventeen says:

            I think it was Andy Warhol who proposed a tiled apartment with a drain in the floor, so you could just hose it down. Maybe there should be SROs for the elderly designed along these lines.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I’ve encountered bathrooms at service stations in parts of Europe like that … self cleaning…

            • Xabier says:

              Smart thinking Lidia, real horizon-scoping!

              We might combine this with so-called ‘water cremation’, which would aid the drainage process.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              SS SINdy hoses norm down when he takes off the diaper … as you can image … it’s one big smear of fecality

              norm – if you hurry and get the 5th shot .. then you will qualify for the Extra Strength More Deadly vaccine coming in a month or two…

        • Tim Groves says:

          In Japan, people usually don’t end with a bang, but with a whimper.

          In the countryside, old people in winter, living in poorly heated houses, jumping into hot bathtubs and dying of stokes as a result—you wouldn’t believe the number of times I’ve heard that happen.

          Of course, Shinzo Abe’s case was very much an exception. You can literally count the number of deliberate murders involving guns in a year in Japan on the fingers of one hand. It’s far less than the number of people shot dead in Chicago on an average weekend.

  47. ivanislav says:

    This guy sees where some of this is all going politically, but without the energy angle:

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      He doesn’t quite have the energy angle, but he points out that we are moving to where society has been for most of history. In the past, people didn’t have refrigerators or electricity to operate their refrigerators. Providing food, day after day, required much more effort.

      • Artleads says:

        But not only that. History has never had mass refrigerators and mass automobile use before. So there’s a lot of unprecedence in our situation, and what we can learn or scavenge from it.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        bit problem doing that when the soil is useless without petro chems…

        I didn’t watch this … cuz

      • Artleads says:

        And growing directly in the bummed out soil (or the very small amount of good soil remaining anywhere) has to be changed to growing on a mass scale in manufactured soil. I don’t know if there are supply chains to supply the needed ingredients to do that, however.

Comments are closed.