The world’s self-organizing economy can be expected to act strangely, as energy supplies deplete

It is my view that when energy supply falls, it falls not because reserves “run out.” It falls because economies around the world cannot afford to purchase goods and services made with energy products and using energy products in their operation. It is really a price problem. Prices cannot be simultaneously high enough for oil producers (such as Russia and Saudi Arabia) to ramp up production and remain low enough for consumers around the world to buy the goods and services that they are accustomed to buying.

Figure 1. Chart showing average annual Brent-equivalent oil prices in 2021$ based on data from BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy, together with bars showing periods when prices seemed to be favorable to producers.

We are now in a period of price conflict. Oil and other energy prices have remained too low for producers since at least mid-2014. At the same time, depletion of fossil fuels has led to higher costs of extraction. Often, the tax needs of governments of oil exporting countries are higher as well, leading to even higher required prices for producers if they are to continue to produce oil and raise their production. Thus, producers truly require higher prices.

Governments of countries affected by this inflation in price are quite disturbed: Higher prices for energy products mean higher prices for all goods and services. This makes citizens very unhappy because wages do not rise to compensate for this inflation. Prices today are high enough to cause significant inflation (about $107 per barrel for Brent oil (Europe) and $97 for WTI (US)), but still not high enough to satisfy the high-price needs of energy producers.

It is my expectation that these and other issues will lead to a very strangely behaving world economy in the months and years ahead. The world economy we know today is, in fact, a self-organizing system operating under the laws of physics. With less energy, it will start “coming apart.” World trade will increasingly falter. Fossil fuel prices will be volatile, but not necessarily very high. In this post, I will try to explain some of the issues I see.

[1] The issue causing the price conflict can be described as reduced productivity of the economy. The ultimate outcome of reduced productivity of the economy is fewer total goods and services produced by the economy.

Figure 2 shows that, historically, there is an extremely high correlation between world energy consumption and the total quantity of goods and services produced by the world economy. In my analysis, I use Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) GDP because it is not distorted by the rise and fall of the US dollar relative to other currencies.

Figure 2. Correlation between world GDP measured in “Purchasing Power Parity” (PPP) 2017 International $ and world energy consumption, including both fossil fuels and renewables. GDP is as reported by the World Bank for 1990 through 2021 as of July 26, 2022; total energy consumption is as reported by BP in its 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

The reason such a high correlation exists is because it takes energy to perform each activity that contributes to GDP, such as lighting a room or transporting goods. Energy consumption which is cheap to produce and growing rapidly in quantity is ideal for increasing energy productivity, since it allows factories to be built cheaply and raw materials and finished goods to be transported at low cost.

Humans are part of the economy. Food is the energy product that humans require. Reducing food supply by 20% or 40% or 50% cannot be expected to work well. The economy suffers the same difficulty.

In recent years, depletion has been making the extraction of fossil fuel resources increasingly expensive. One issue is that the resources that were easiest to extract and closest to where they were needed were extracted first, leaving the highest cost resources for extraction later. Another issue is that with a growing population, the governments of oil exporting countries require higher tax revenue to support the overall needs of their countries.

Intermittent wind and solar are not substitutes for fossil fuels because they are not available when they are needed. If several months’ worth of storage could be added, the total cost would be so high that these energy sources would have no chance of being competitive. I recently wrote about some of the issues with renewables in Limits to Green Energy Are Becoming Much Clearer.

Rising population is a second problem leading to falling efficiency. In order to feed, clothe and house a rising population, a growing quantity of food must be produced from essentially the same amount of arable land. More water for the rising population is required for the rising population, often obtained by deeper wells or desalination. Clearly, the need to use increased materials and labor to work around problems caused by rising world population adds another layer of inefficiency.

If we also add the cost of attempting to work around pollution issues, this further adds another layer of inefficiency in the use of energy supplies.

More technology is not a solution, either, because adding any type of complexity requires energy to implement. For example, adding machines to replace current workers requires the use of energy products to make and operate the machines. Moving production to cheaper locations overseas (another form of complexity) requires energy for the transport of goods from where they are transported to where they are used.

Figure 2 shows that the world economy still requires more energy to produce increasing GDP, even with the gains achieved in technology and efficiency.

Because of energy limits, the world economy is trying to change from a “growth mode” to a “shrinkage mode.” This is something very much like the collapse of many ancient civilizations, including the fall of Rome in 165 to 197 CE. Historically, such collapses have unfolded over a period of years or decades.

[2] In the past, the growth rate of GDP has exceeded that of energy consumption. As the economy changes from growth to shrinkage, we should expect this situation to reverse: The rate of shrinkage of GDP will be greater than the rate of shrinkage of energy consumption.

Figure 3 shows that, historically, world economic growth has been slightly higher than the growth in energy consumption. This growth in energy consumption is based on total consumption of fossil fuels and renewables, as calculated by BP.

Figure 3. Annual growth in world PPP GDP compared to annual growth in consumption of energy supplies. World PPP GDP is data provided by the World Bank; world energy consumption is based on data of BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

In fact, based on the discussion in Section [1], this is precisely the situation we should expect: GDP growth should exceed energy consumption growth when the economy is growing. Unfortunately, Section [1] also suggests that we can expect this favorable relationship to disappear as energy supply begins to shrink because of growing inefficiencies in the system. In such a case, GDP is likely to shrink even more quickly than energy supply shrinks. One reason this happens is because complexity of many types cannot be maintained as energy supply shrinks. For example, international supply lines are likely to break if energy supplies fall too low.

[3] Interest rates play an important role in encouraging the development of energy resources. Generally falling interest rates are very beneficial; rising interest rates are quite detrimental. As the economy shifts toward shrinkage, the pattern we can expect is higher interest rates, rather than lower. As the limits of energy extraction are hit, these higher rates will tend to make the economy shrink even faster than it would otherwise shrink.

Part of what has allowed growing energy consumption in the period shown in Figures 2 and 3 is rising debt levels at generally lower interest rates. Falling interest rates together with debt availability make investment in factories and mines more affordable. They also help citizens seeking to buy a new car or home because the lower monthly payments make these items more affordable. Demand for energy products tends to rise, allowing the prices of commodities to rise higher than they would otherwise rise, thus making their production more profitable. This encourages more fossil fuel extraction and more development of renewables.

Once the economy starts to shrink, debt levels seem likely to shrink because of defaults and because of reluctance of lenders to lend, for fear of defaults. Interest rates will tend to rise, partly because of the higher inflation rates and partly because of the higher level of expected defaults. This debt pattern in turn will reinforce the tendency toward lower GDP growth compared to energy consumption growth. This is a major reason that raising interest rates now is likely to push the economy downward.

[4] With fewer goods and services produced by the economy, the world economy must eventually shrink. We should not be surprised if this shrinkage in some ways echoes the shrinkage that took place in the 2008-2009 recession and the 2020 shutdowns.

The GDP of the world economy is the goods and services produced by the world economy. If the economy starts to shrink, total world GDP will necessarily fall.

What happens in the future may echo what has happened in the past.

Figure 4. World energy consumption per capita, based on information published in BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Central bank officials felt it was important to stop inflation in oil prices (and indirectly in food prices) back in the 2004 to 2006 period. This indirectly led to the 2008-2009 recession as parts of the world debt bubble started to collapse and many jobs were lost. We should not be surprised if a much worse version of this happens in the future.

The 2020 shutdowns were characterized in most news media as a response to Covid-19. Viewed on an overall system basis, however, they really were a response to many simultaneous problems:

  • Covid-19
  • A hidden shortage of fossil fuels that was not reflected as high enough prices for producers to ramp up production
  • Hidden financial problems that threatened a new version of the 2008 financial collapse
  • Factories in many parts of the world that were operating at far less than capacity
  • Workers demonstrating in the streets with respect to low wages and low pensions
  • Airlines with financial problems
  • Citizens frustrated by long commutes
  • Very many old, sick people in care homes of various types, passing around illnesses
  • An outsized medical system that still desired to increase profits
  • Politicians who wanted a way to better control their populations–perhaps rationing of output would work around an inadequate total supply of goods and services

Shutting down non-essential activities for a while would temporarily reduce demand for oil and other energy products, making it easier for the rest of the system to appear profitable. It would give an excuse to increase borrowing (and money printing) to hide the financial problems for a while longer. It would keep people at home, reducing the need for oil and other energy products, hiding the fossil fuel shortage for a while longer. It would force the medical system to reorganize, offering more telephone visits and laying off non-essential workers. Many individual citizens could reduce time lost to commuting, thanks to new work-from-home rules and internet connections. The homebuilding and home remodeling industries were stimulated, offering work to those who had been laid off.

The impacts of the shutdowns were greatest on poor people in poor countries, such as those in Central and South America. For example, many people in the vacation and travel industries were laid off in poor countries. People making fancy clothing for people going to conferences and weddings were laid off, as were people raising flowers for fancy events. These people had trouble finding new employment. They are at increased risk of dying, either from Covid-19 or inadequate nutrition, making them susceptible to other illnesses.

We should not be surprised if some near-term problems echo what has happened in the past. Debt defaults and falling home prices are very real possibilities, for example. Also, making a new crisis a huge focal point and scaring the population into staying at home has proven to be a huge success in temporarily reducing energy consumption without actual rationing. Some people believe that monkeypox or a climate change crisis will be the next area of focus in an attempt to reduce energy consumption, and thus lower oil prices.

[5] There is likely to be more conflict in a world with not enough goods and services to go around.

With a shrinking amount of finished goods and services, we should not be surprised if we see more conflict in the world. Many wars are resource wars. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with other countries indirectly involved, certainly could be considered a resource war. Russia wants higher prices for its exports of many kinds, including energy exports. I wrote about the conflict issue in a post I wrote in April 2022: The world has a major crude oil problem; expect conflict ahead.

World War I and World War II were almost certainly about energy resources. Peak coal in the UK seems to be closely related to World War I. Inadequate coal in Germany and lack of oil in Japan (and elsewhere) seem to be related to World War II.

[6] We seem to be facing a new set of problems in addition to the problems that gave rise to the Covid-19 shutdowns. These are likely to shape how any new crisis plays out.

Some recently added problems include the following:

  • Debt has risen to a high level, relative to 2008. This debt will be harder to repay with higher interest rates.
  • The US dollar is very high relative to other currencies. The high level of the US dollar causes problems for borrowers from outside the US in repaying their loans. It also makes energy prices very high outside the US.
  • Oil, coal and natural gas are all in short supply world-wide, leading to falling productivity of the overall system Item 1. If extraction is to continue, prices need to be much higher.
  • Difficulties with broken supply lines make it hard to ramp up production of manufactured goods of many kinds.
  • Inadequate labor supply is an increasing problem. Baby boomers are now retiring; not enough young people are available to take their place. Increased illness, associated with Covid-19 and its vaccines, is also an issue.

These issues point to a situation where rising interest rates seem likely to send the world economy downward because of debt defaults and failing businesses of many kinds.

The high dollar relative to other currencies leads to the potential for the system to break apart under stress. Alternatively, the US dollar may play a smaller role in international trade than in the past.

[7] Many parts of the economy are likely to find that the promised payments to be made to them cannot really take place.

We have been taught that money is a store of value. We have also been taught that government promises, such as pensions, unemployment insurance and health insurance can be counted on. If there are fewer goods and services available in total, the whole system must change to reflect the fact that there are no longer enough goods and services to go around. There may not even be enough food to go around.

As the world economy hits limits, we cannot assume that the money we have in the bank will really be able to purchase the goods we want in the future. The goods may not be available to purchase, or the government may put a restriction (such as $200 per week) on how much we can withdraw from our account each week, or inflation may make goods we currently buy unaffordable.

If we think about the situation, the world will be producing fewer goods and services each year, regardless of what promises that have been made in the past might say. For example, the number of bushels of wheat available worldwide will start falling, as will the number of new cars and the number of computers. Somehow, the goods and services people expected to be available will start disappearing. If the problem is inflation, the affordable quantity will start to fall.

We don’t know precisely what will happen, but these are some ideas, especially as higher interest rates become a problem:

  • Many businesses will fail. They will default on their debt; the value of their stock will go to zero. They will lay off their employees.
  • Employees and governments will also default on debts. Banks will have difficulty remaining solvent.
  • Pension plans will have nowhere nearly enough money to pay promised pensions. Either they will default or prices will rise so high that the pensions do not really purchase the goods that recipients hoped for.
  • The international system of trade is likely to start withering away. Eventually, most goods will be locally produced with whatever resources are available.
  • Many government agencies will become inadequately funded and fail. Intergovernmental agencies, such as the European Union and the United Nations, are especially vulnerable.
  • Governments are likely to reduce services provided because tax revenues are too low. Even if more money is printed, it cannot buy goods that are not there.
  • Citizens may become so unhappy with their governments that they overthrow them. Simpler, cheaper governmental systems, offering fewer services, may follow.

[8] It is likely that, in inflation-adjusted dollars, energy prices will not rise very high, for very long.

We are likely dealing with an economy that is basically falling apart. Factories will produce less because they cannot obtain financing. Purchasers of finished goods and services will have difficulty finding jobs that pay well and loans based on this employment. These effects will tend to keep commodity prices too low for producers. While there may be temporary spurts of higher prices, finished goods made with high-cost energy products will be too expensive for most citizens to afford. This will tend to push prices back down again.

[9] Conclusion.

We are dealing with a situation that economists, politicians and central banks are ill-equipped to handle. Raising interest rates may squeeze out a huge share of the economy. The economy was already “at the edge.” We can’t know for certain.

Virtually no one looks at the economy from a physics point of view. For one thing, the result is too distressing to explain to citizens. For another, it is fashionable for scientists of all types to produce papers and have them peer reviewed by others within their own ivory towers. Economists, politicians and central bankers don’t care about the physics of the situation. Even those basing their analysis on Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) tend to focus on only a narrow portion of what I explained in Section [1]. Once researchers have invested a huge amount of time and effort in one direction, they cannot consider the possibility that their approach may be seriously incomplete.

Unfortunately, the physics-based approach I am using indicates that the world’s economy is likely to change dramatically for the worse in the months and years ahead. Economies, in general, cannot last forever. Populations outgrow their resource bases; resources become too depleted. In physics terms, economies are dissipative structures, not unlike ecosystems, plants and animals. They can only exist for a limited time before they die or end their operation. They tend to be replaced by new, similar dissipative structures.

While the current world economy cannot last indefinitely, humans have continued to exist through many bottlenecks in the past, including ice ages. It is likely that some humans, perhaps in mutated form, will make it through the current bottleneck. These humans will likely create a new economy that is better adapted to the Earth as it changes.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
This entry was posted in Financial Implications, oil shortages and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

4,063 Responses to The world’s self-organizing economy can be expected to act strangely, as energy supplies deplete

  1. postkey
    postkey says:

    “The medium- to long-term should be increasingly affected by limited supply growth (Figure 4). The market will send price signals to producers based on its sense of medium-term supply urgency. Prices will rally until inflation and a fragile economy end the rally. This is the dialectic that I expect will dominate oil markets in 2022 and probably beyond. There is great opportunity for those who understand this pattern.”

    https://www.artberman.com/2022/08/15/paradigm-shift-end-of-the-oil-age/

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Art German has nice charts in his post. I think he is expecting too much of “Prices will rally until inflation and a fragile economy end the rally,” however. The peak of the rally may already be past. Or, if it isn’t, upward spurts are likely to be brief and exceeded by an overall downward trend (in inflation adjusted terms) of a failing economy.

  2. Fast Eddy says:

    How about this…

    Park some seriously vax damaged people in wheel chairs in high traffic areas on cities… with signs indicating what is wrong with them … then put a collection box in front of them and shame people into giving.

    My mate with the heart damage has a therapist coming to help him and the person told him that she has many clients who are vax damaged — but he is the only one who qualified for https://www.acc.co.nz/

    So these vax damaged people who cannot work will be on welfare.

    They need to rub this in the face of the MOREONS… but they won’t … that’s too impolite I guess.

  3. Fast Eddy says:

    “I just want to be heard”.

    AHPRA destroyed the lives of hundreds of thousands of healthcare practitioners, and the population let it happen.

    https://twitter.com/SaiKate108/status/1559757940802093057?s=21&t

  4. Fast Eddy says:

    norm

    Latest Nova Scotia COVID-19 Data Shows 84% of Omicron Hospitalizations and 80%+ of Omicron Deaths Were in the Vaccinated

    Source: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/204d6ed723244dfbb763ca3f913c5cad

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I see that the median age of the Omicron deaths is 83.

  5. Fast Eddy says:

    Jordan Peterson — vaxxed… and clueless https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/38549 (even though he belatedly realized he was played)

    • Kowalainen says:

      Tryhard copium arbiter JBP wants continue to Hyper Tryhard in egotistical fantasy la-la land. I’m sure the dictates of objective reality will comply with his injections of mRNA. The hopiates never seem to wear off.

      But don’t get me wrong. JBP gets stuff right occasionally. It’s just that nobody living in a delusion can get everything right.

      GO JORDAN GO!!!1!
      👍

  6. Fast Eddy says:

    norm

    Dan Hartman´s son, Sean (17) died 1 month after covid “vaccination”
    Sean’s father Dan Hartman shares his regret, pain, gratitude and anger

    Thank you for receiving this newsletter.

    Dan Hartman does not want other parents to suffer the loss of their children. He doesn’t want other young people to die. He wants to thank the truth telling doctors who are standing against the criminal covid agenda and saving whoever we can. Dan also has a passionate message for the many doctors and others who continue silent and complicit with the covid agenda: repent, speak up, and stop the injections!

    Here is Dan’s intense heart felt 5 minute presentation from the July 5th event where he spoke along with myself and other Canadian covid truth physicians and activists:
    https://drtrozzi.org/2022/08/16/dan-hartman-son-sean-17-died-1-month-after-vaccination

    Blessings,
    -Dr Mark Trozzi

  7. Fast Eddy says:

    THE TRUTH ABOUT COVID DEATHS IN IRELAND

    DATA RELEASED BY the Central Statistics Office (CSO) shows that from the beginning of the pandemic until February 2022, Covid-19 was identified as the Underlying Cause of Death (UCOD) in 5,384 cases.

    Four in five deaths from Covid-19 had at least three medical conditions mentioned on the death record with 4.2 conditions being the average per person according to data released today.

    The largest number of accompanying conditions of Covid-19 deaths were diseases of the respiratory system, which were reported in 5,279 (or 98%) of Covid-19 deaths.

    “Looking at the data, we can see that a total of 183 deaths (or 3.4%) reported Covid-19 as the single cause of death, whereas, 5,201 (or almost 97%) Covid-19 deaths were certified as having had Covid-19 and at least one other medical condition on the death certificate.”

    https://www.thejournal.ie/covid-deaths-pneumonia-conditions-5841803-Aug2022/?utm_source=twitter_short

  8. Fast Eddy says:

    Good

    ‘It’s Time to Start Questioning Everything,’ Including the Childhood Vaccinations

    Steve Kirsch: (http://t.me/stkirsch)”[I asked Andrew Wakefield], ‘Do the unvaccinated kids do 10% better, 20% better in terms of the health outcomes and so forth?’ And he said, ‘Oh, no! Not even close. It’s like 10x.’ 10x.”

    Dr. Ryan Cole: (https://www.rcolemd.com/) “If you look at under the reign of Fauci for 40 plus years, where childhood chronic diseases and illnesses have gone from 6% to about 54% as we’ve added more and more layers of shots onto those schedules. And again, they’ll say ‘Correlation isn’t causation.’ Well, not a single childhood vaccine was ever tried in their clinical trials against placebo.”

    Rumble (https://rumble.com/v1g9xfx-its-time-to-start-questioning-everything-including-the-childhood-vaccinatio.html)

  9. Fast Eddy says:

    Did they give this poor dog Monkeypox? MSM reported on this story as well.

    Sick people. May God forgive us all.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/first-dog-infected-monkeypox-after-sharing-bed-gay-couple

  10. Fast Eddy says:

    Dr. John Campbell Says New Vaccine Study Should Sound the Alarms for the CDC/NHS

    “After the second dose of the Pfizer vaccine … abnormal electrocardiogram 17.94% and elevated biomarkers, which is the really definitive thing these are substances released from damaged heart muscle, 2.33%. Now I was actually taken aback by these figures these very high levels and the implications of this …”

    Clip: https://rumble.com/v1g8z4b-dr.-john-campbell-says-new-vaccine-study-should-sound-the-alarms-for-the-cd.html

    Full Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekTR0w2M9-U

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Sounds worrying!

  11. Fast Eddy says:

    The study ultimately included a total of 301 students from two schools, ages 13-18, who received a second dose of the shot (BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 “vaccine,” which is the Pfizer shot). Of those, a whopping 29.24% of them had “cardiovascular effects” from the shot, “ranging from tachycardia, palpitation, and myopericarditis.”

    https://www.redvoicemedia.com/2022/08/new-thai-study-shows-nearly-30-of-young-adults-had-cardiovascular-injuries-post-jab/ref/8/

  12. Fast Eddy says:

    pregnant Melbourne nurse says she faces termination for requesting medical advice on her booster as hospitals struggle to fill staff shortages

    https://www.rebelnews.com/senior_nurse_breaks_silence_on_hospital_crisis

  13. Fast Eddy says:

    No likes:

    Fast Eddy
    18 min ago
    Another one dead https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-62564721

    Copy this: This is so sad. Yet another life destroyed by the Covid Vaccines.

    And paste it anywhere you find mention of this on FB:

    https://www.facebook.com/com.insidexpress/posts/597596701832460

    https://www.facebook.com/falkirkherald/posts/scottish-colourblind-singer-darius-campbell-danesh-who-rose-to-fame-after-appear/5315531295190660/

    https://www.facebook.com/search/top/?q=Darius%20Campbell%20Danesh

    If you are not willing to do this then stop complaining.

  14. Fast Eddy says:

    Thomas Farzi, a journalist and author, has written a pessimistic essay for UnHerd predicting widespread social unrest in Britain this winter due to the cost of living crisis, which will likely be severe. Here is how it begins:

    Britain may be recovering from a heatwave, but its politicians are already fearful that winter is coming. Only now, more than 170 days since the war broke out, are policymakers realising the potentially catastrophic implications of their gung-ho approach towards Russia.

    Just last week, it was revealed that the UK government is preparing for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” over the winter in which below-average temperatures and gas shortages could force authorities to trigger emergency gas-saving measures, including organised blackouts for industry and even households. And this is as energy prices continue to spiral out of control: this winter, the average annual energy bill for a typical household is expected to reach £4,200, or about £350 a month – more than double what households are currently paying and a four-fold increase on the average bill paid just a year ago.

    The social consequences would be nothing short of catastrophic, potentially pushing 10.5 million households — a third of the total — into poverty, exacerbating what is already the U.K.’s worst cost-of-living crisis in decades. Yet even when faced with a campaign of civil disobedience, calling on people to cancel their energy direct debits, the government hasn’t been able to come up with anything better than offering households a one-off £400 discount on their fuel bills in October (and a bit more for those on means-tested benefits). Downing Street’s “strategy” to get through the winter seems to be to hunker down and hope for the best.

    For all the Brexiteer’s talk of “taking back control”, the post-Brexit political establishment doesn’t appear to be in control at all. They’re not alone, however. All European countries, to varying degrees, are facing the disastrous consequences of what will go down in history as one of the greatest political miscalculations ever – the idea that Europe could weaponise Russian gas supplies without shooting itself in the foot. As the social and economic costs continue to mount, several countries are now preparing for blackouts and energy rationing this winter.

    And all European leaders, not to mention the technocrats in Brussels, after sleepwalking into this crisis, seem equally clueless about how to get out of this rut. France, for example, is usually considered less exposed due to its reliance on nuclear energy — and yet, incredibly, nuclear output this winter is expected to be 25% below that of a normal year, due to maintenance and repairs taking longer than expected.

    Overall, the entire European political class is proving to be catastrophically ill-equipped to deal with the increasingly complex, interdependent and crisis-ridden reality of our 21st-century world. Indeed, manufacturing new crises, or worsening existing ones, seems to be what they do best. What we need is knowledge, vision, wisdom, and self-restraint — in short, a forward-thinking politics geared towards improving the material and spiritual lives of everyone, including those yet to be born. Instead, what we have is short-termism, ignorance, arrogance, mediocrity, and self-interest – a politics completely divorced from the needs and interests of the majority of citizens.

    • Jan says:

      Europe would not survive that. EU-president van der Leyen is accused to have negotiated something like 9 shots per citizen with her friend without any documentation or call for bids. The German chancellor is acused to have stolen 50 Mio EURs, in interrogations he laughs and has fun and says he cannot remember. His State Secretary’s main qualification is to have won a regional competition of trampolining.

      In Austria chancellor Kurz had to resign after accusations of corruption. Rumours say that it was a deal with the juridical system, they would refrain from prosecuting him if he steps back immediately not to damage the position. He ran to his friend Peter Thiel who has highly political ambitions. Was he behind Austrian politics? They have exchanged the chancellor twice without elections since, the current is the worlds most disliked head of state. His party runs local elections under a different name.

      In case of a larger blackout, famine or financial crash people would get them out of their offices, I am afraid, including high officials and members of high courts. Even members of parliament could be in danger. Last week a leader of the oppositional party declared unvaccinated as traitor of the people. Last year the Minister of justice said, unvaccinated Austrians are illegal in their country.

      People are not angry and not in any revolutionary mood. They are fed up.

      The German chancellor said, he is not afraid of any possible rebellion because we are a social state and leave nobody behind. I doubt that people will see it like that.

    • well copied eddy

      an interesting comment for once

  15. Fast Eddy says:

    Retail sales and the property market in China are being hammered by draconian Covid restrictions and the country’s nascent recovery is being choked off. The Telegraph has more.

    Navigating the maze-like showroom that is an Ikea store has always been notoriously difficult. But last weekend, hundreds of shoppers in Shanghai found themselves barging their way past security guards just to get out of the doors at the Xuhui district outlet.

    On social media it looked like a closing-down sale or Black Friday scrum. But these shoppers weren’t in search of a bargain Billy bookcase. They were simply trying to leave the store.

    China’s draconian approach to tackling Covid-19 has previously left some shoppers trading their handbags for sleeping bags. In Shanghai, those unfortunate enough to fail in the escape from Ikea were trapped for hours behind the locked exit as authorities ordered swab tests for all customers, all because one shopper was in close contact with someone with the virus.

    They’re not alone. Horror stories have emerged of people being locked in Uniqlo for 48 hours or being trapped in Disneyland as authorities mass-tested tens of thousands in the pursuit of Covid-zero. “I never thought that the longest queue in Disneyland would be for a nucleic acid test,” one disgruntled theme park-goer said last year on social media.

    Official figures on Monday provided further evidence that the strict Covid policies are choking off an already nascent recovery. Retail sales have slowed, factory production is stuttering and even investment is falling short of expectations. The talk now is not whether the country will miss an implicit growth target of 5.5pc this year, but by how much.

    Shanghai, China’s most populous urban area, has endured some of the strictest and prolonged lockdowns in the world under a strategy set by the country’s premier Xi Jinping. The city of 20 million people has ordered flash lockdowns of areas where positive cases or their close contacts have been detected.

    It is hurting morale as well as damaging business sentiment and tourism, and inflicting long term damage on the economy.

    https://archive.ph/Kqm7R

  16. Rodster says:

    Cause of death unknown?

    “Darius Campbell Danesh: Pop Idol and West End star dies aged 41“

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-62564721

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Dropped that on Kirsch’s SS with instructions to visit links to multiple FB pages mentioning this death — and provided a copy and paste comment…inviting the MOREONS to drop the comment on all the FB pages.

      Wanna bet they won’t do it? Cuz. MOREONS hahaha

      I know – let’s march around the block shouting Freedom then gather at someone’s home for potluck dinner and watch videos of farmers drive their tractors round and round in Holland!!!

      Do we at some point upload the video of this and drop that url onto all the SSs and make it go viral like the call to the pharmacist?

      https://i.postimg.cc/gkdH4HRr/Giant-Fat-Bastard-Having-the-Rules-Explained.png

      Is no one willing to provide Fast Eddy with Entertainment Value? To pass the time as HE waits for the Final Solution. WTF is wrong with people – the boot is being applied… and they are eating potluck?

      Daddy … what did you do when they f789ed everyone over during Covid and now I am eating bugs? Oh son — I ate potluck and made a lot of comments on SS voicing my anger. That’s all daddy? Yes son I was a revolutionary but we failed.

  17. Adonis says:

    I think i know why the elders decided to punish Europe its simply a numbers game Europe has obviously had the lion”s share of the fossil fuels in the past so needed to be punished we are witnessing redistribution of the remaining ultimateley recoverable remaining fossil fuel reserves the elders are showing or displaying their fairness.

    • drb753
      drb753 says:

      Europe will not be the only US colony to suffer. Japan also. I just think it is a matter of dropping the periphery to preserve the core.

      • Student says:

        I agree with you db753.
        In addition, I remember that Gail explained that in Europe people has an high consumption of energy per capita.
        Considery energy: every european is more ‘dangerous’ than an African or an Indian, just for example.

  18. CTG says:

    Let me take a stab at the Grand Unified Theory of OFW

    1. 1970s – politicians “sort of” knew that we are on a finite planet but then technology can save the day. No one bothers

    2. 2000 – still hoping for tech to save the day. Money printing still continue.

    3. 2007/8 – Financial crisis is more important to settle as shale oil can be the saviour.

    4. 2015/6 -Shale oil does not seem to help. We need implement green energy pronto with Europe leading the way

    5. 2019 – Green energy seem like not working and we are screwed in the financial front (repo). Status quo BAU under existential crisis. Need a huge distraction.

    6. COVID came in to picture

    7. China to lockdown borders (like the olden days where one cannot go in/out of Communist country easily)

    8. Temporary reprieve. Sheep became restless with the westerners more aggressive and vocal. Have to do something as they cannot take the COVID lockdown/masking anymore. Asians are more compliant.

    9. Trump would not play ball on this and has to be removed.

    10. The financial band aid that masked the massive money printing is peeling off quickly and the wounds are getting bigger and more toxic. Need another plan.

    11. OK. Disrupt the air travel, supply chain and see if it can buy humans more time. Not really working as the sheep are getting more and more restless.

    12. OK. Work with Russia and make a deal with Russia. We put up a kabuki theater on sanctions and get a real actor to be the head of UKR. Russian oil is still being sold but in a longer route. A theater after all.

    13. China reduces its own energy usage. Tourism all gone. Japan with its high energy usage is still closed to tourism. (Remember one of my comments stated that tourism is a complete waste of energy – I visit your country to see the rocks/mountains/museum and vice versa. No gain to the human civilization)

    14. Traveling becomes expensive and troublesome. Reduced energy usage

    14. Western countries due to its citizens being more vocal rather than the compliant Asians – Western countries decides to “waste” or “splurge”all its energy on travel, at the beach, protesting with tractors and when winter comes, no energy and everyone dies.

    15. China decides to take the slower path of conserving energy and perhaps lasts a little longer.

    16. In the mean time, the elites are partying like no tomorrow because there is literally no tomorrow.

    * Any crude oil increase

    1. They report it. They can report any number.
    2. Even if the numbers are real, those are stored oil that is now being used to mask the decline.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I’m thinking in the 70’s as the US peaked out … they realized they needed to prepare for the day when cheap peak oil arrived … and they began working on UEP …

      Simultaneously they allocated some budget for PR and renewables to convince the MOREONS that we would soon transition off of oil.

      They knew that would never happen – 1/3 of the oil we use does not get burned…and cannot be replaced with anything else….

      • Adonis says:

        The elders know how much is really left of oil less than 15 years so expect some crazy times ahead of us they will try anything to convince us to change our behavior

  19. I don’t think I’ve mentioned lately that the world produces 4 billion gallons of oil per day.

    so, why not now?

    the world produces 4 billion gallons of oil per day.

    there, that’s better.

    que sera sera, just chill.

    • Harry is back from vacation.

      yesterday was “Weather News” 😉 but today is “Economic News”:

      https://climateandeconomy.com/2022/08/16/16th-august-2022-todays-round-up-of-economic-news/

      lots of good Doom there.

    • But David..before when I was growing up everything was in millions…that was a really big number, in the 80s to early 90s it morphed into billions …billionaire was really outrageously rich…now its Trillions…trillions this..trillions that…
      So 4 billions of gas per day…can mean over a trillion gallons per Year?
      Now that’s a really big number

      • a trillion+ gallons of oil per year!

        and I say to myself…

        what a wonderful world.

        • it’s not the amount of oil available

          it’s what can be done with it

          fossil fuels have no value until they are converted into something else.

          if we don’t have the means for conversion, then oil will stay in the ground.

          • but we still have the means, and it’s great, many of us call it BAU.

            and you are quite wrong about amounts.

            amounts matter.

            it’s too obvious, but more can be done with 4 billion gallons per day, than with any lesser number.

            and all too obvious, but it’s NOT staying in the ground.

            it’s coming out at a rate of 4 billion gallons per day.

            BECAUSE many people continue to find good things to do with it, and good conversions to make.

            if you don’t think amounts matter, try to go on a long trip in your car when the amount in the tank is below one liter.

            or watch the UK when there is a lot less amount this winter than last winter.

            4 billion gallons today, again!

            • my comment was intended to cover humankind in general, not individuals.

              for the past 300 years or so, we have converted fossil fuels into ever-increasing wages.

              Before fossil fuels came into general usage (ie pre-1700s) wages remained generally static. After that date, we began to churn out goods in wast quantities, increasing year on year.(ie growth). But wages had to increase pro rata year on year to buy those goods.

              This worked fine as long as cheap surplus FF energy input kept on growing.

              We still have FF energy available, but not in ‘cheap surplus’ amounts. In other words oil is getting too expensive to use to make cheap goods.

              This is why BAU is no longer a viable option for billions of people. Their wages are dropping in real terms.

              Of course there will be people who can find things to do with it–but sooner or later the squeeze will apply to everyone.
              Oil is still produced in vast quantities for vast numbers of people (ie relatively cheaply).
              But we are paying more to get hold of it each year, so poorer people are being squeezed out of the oil-use market.

              The growth of cheap oil stopped 50 years ago. We relied on increasing debt instead.

              As oil-use involves everything, that means food, heating and basic living take a hit. Hence the increase in foodbanks and so on.

              Then economies collapse. It isn’t possible to stay economically afloat to support just a ‘rich elite’ and ‘elders’ and such nonsense ideas.

  20. Things are looking grim in Britain, with beggary spreading through the capital, as the energy crisis pushes everyone into a cost of living crisis.

    Those ‘sanctions’ on Russia are really working out! Gas prices have rocketed and it is the ordinary people who suffer, with the worst fall in living standards in Britain in 100 years and inflation headed toward 15%.

    Untold millions will simply not be able to pay utility bills in the Autumn, and they will be cut off for the winter. Charming.

    The German state is completely bonkers too, and industry and the ordinary people face an utter shambles this winter.

    Revolt could be coming.

    • did the EU Brussels Eurotard “leaders” not think about “the ordinary people”?

      perhaps they did, and the Greentards said don’t worry, they’ll be fine with all the renewables.

      it would be a shame if the masses started blaming Klown Schwab.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      The Elders seem to be able to manage the financial ructions… so far… but not much they can do about an affordable energy deficit… they are already paying through the nose for LNG from the US…. that is some serious desperation…

      Will we make it to Christmas without Crack Boom?

  21. Does anyone have any advice on how to satisfy safely the brain’s need for sugar? Glucose does play a role in the manufacture of serotonin, and I feel much more tranquil after eating a few cookies.

    • ivanislav says:

      Fat/oil (animal or olive oil) and protein works for me and helps with focus.

    • I eat dark chocolate, but only for the antioxidants.

      the fantastic tasty combo of bitter and sweet has nothing to do with it!

      sugar, what sugar?

      reads label: Total Sugars 22g, 42% daily value.

      not bad.

      • I take the Lindt ‘supreme dark’, which is 90% cocoa, just 7.0g sugar per 100g – 55g of fat, though – just a square or two after dinner with a coffee (big squares, admittedly).

        I am not a sugar fan, I like my teeth for one thing, and I avoid much sugar.

        I have a weakness for little buckets of mint ice-cream with choc chips at the moment, in this heat, low sugar, lol but I can afford the calories, I am not fat and I keep the carbs down with plenty of protein and veg/ salad lol.

        A treat is fine so long as one does not try to live on them lol.

      • Xabier says:

        I confess I used to eat lots of chocolate in the winter, preferably with hazelnuts.

        I transitioned to just dipping a finger in a jar of Italian chocolate hazelnut spread, which is as cheerfulness-inducing as scoffing a whole bar, and costs very little.

        My suggestion for economy-minded people who still need a sweet choco hit……

    • nikoB says:

      MCT oil will give your brain plenty of energy.
      It is made from coconut oil. Available in supermarkets.
      I use it when fasting and doing keto.

    • rufustiresias999
      rufustiresias999 says:

      Plenty of sugar in wine. Alcohol helps peace of mind too.

    • Kowalainen says:

      A fruit smoothie spiked with brown sugar from sugar crane. Slap down half a liter of that, wait 30 minutes and then hit the cranks. There will be no fatigue from low energy, rather you’re limited by the (an)aerobic system dishing out the oh noes to your subjective experience processing unit (SPU) as you cross into the region of maximum effort.
      👍

      If you’re feeling the “sugar high” and “sugar crash”, you’re insulin receptors are fscked. Cut down on the oils and fats until you can eat spoonfuls of sugar without the high or crash.

      Load up on carbs until the liver starts to accumulate triglycerides. You’ll notice your liver getting larger by a slight “pot belly” without the lard and slop. If you get well conditioned, the increase in gut volume will be noticeable. The organism need a larger fuel system to supply the obstinate obnoxious with energy.

      Yeah, the paleo/Atkins/LCHF clowns will be left in the dust with their fatiguing acidic, sulphuric stink from fats and animal products.

      🍖 🤡 🥩

  22. Tim Groves says:

    Jessica on the spike protein in the Covid-19 injections and cancer—this is scary!

    A brilliantly frightening and frighteningly brilliant paper was published in October, 2021 in the journal Viruses entitled “SARS-CoV-2 Spike Impairs DNA Damage Repair and Inhibits V(D)J Recombination In Vitro”²⁰. When you read it, and you should read it, you will learn something very disturbing: the authors found that the spike protein was abundant in the nuclei of study cells. The nucleus is where most DNA repair occurs. They found that spike protein significantly suppressed both homologous recombination (HR) and non-homologous end joining (NHEJ) repair mechanisms. These are essential components to DNA repair and proper functioning in adaptive immunity (T and B cells). But even more scary, they found that the spike protein directly affects DNA repair in the nucleus by interfering with double-stranded DNA break (DSB) repair.

    By the way, you might have noticed that there was an order to retract this work, and it was retracted. The claim written in the retraction request was strange and ambiguous, in my opinion, and it was made by the first author. The conclusion following ambiguous errors in methodology was that “conclusions related to vaccine safety are not validated and lacked experimental support”. Where have I heard this before? I will assume that the authors’ initial conclusions are the correct ones: I am suspicious of this retraction request. They write:

    Here, by using an in vitro cell line, we report that the SARS–CoV–2 spike protein significantly inhibits DNA damage repair, which is required for effective V(D)J recombination in adaptive immunity. Mechanistically, we found that the spike protein localizes in the nucleus and inhibits DNA damage repair by impeding key DNA repair protein BRCA1 and 53BP1 recruitment to the damage site. Our findings reveal a potential molecular mechanism by which the spike protein might impede adaptive immunity and underscore the potential side effects of full-length spike-based vaccines.

    Now, where have we heard of BRCA1 and 53BP1 before? Cancer context right? Breast cancer, right? BRCA1 is, in fact, a well-known breast cancer tumor suppressor gene and 53BP1 is a DNA damage checkpoint protein.

    https://jessicar.substack.com/p/do-the-covid-19-injections-contain?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

    • laetitiavocatur
      All is Dust says:

      I informed the MHRA of this back in November 2021, as they were injecting children. They didn’t care.

      I then submitted FOI requests to them over Yellow Card safety data and was called “vexatious”. Apparently, if someone is considered to be “vexatious” then FOIs don’t have to be honoured. How convenient.

      Anyone who doesn’t understand that this is state sanctioned child killing at this point is deluded and a danger to children.

    • MM says:

      Who is firghtened here exactly?
      Not me. Full stop.

      Booohoooo!!!!

      Am I frightened of useless substack post tsunamies?
      No, substack is a cloud.

    • banned says:

      He doesnt have to. “never click on a eddy link” He edits to avoid cognitive dissonance.

      • you mean you actually open eddylinks?

        Have you actually googled ‘tommy robinson’ for instance?

        i must assume you enjoy feeding the clickbaiters

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Cuz the MSM doesn’t lie right norm? Trust the BBC!!!

          Tommy Robinson is trying to stop the Muslim gangs in the slums from grooming 12 yr old girls… you know – like raping them.

          The same people who organized the hit on Rushdie… good stand up Muslims like that.

          You might need Tommy some day norm… word is those groomers are not gender specific…and they might corner you in a back alley.

          Come on old man … do a se xy dance for us will ya. Oooh look ‘es got ‘is diapers on!

        • Fast Eddy says:

          The Nuremberg Code and Human 2.0

          The mRNA vaccines are experimental. I do not care if the FDA has approved them or not. From a clinical research standpoint, we do not have any long term data to evaluate potential adverse events and serious adverse events. In addition, Pfizer unblinded their placebo arm after getting emergency authorization, destroying any chance for high quality, long term follow data. The Moderna vaccine was ready before we even had a pandemic raising all sorts of questions as to the origin and possible purpose of COVID-19.

          https://pdg4ff.substack.com/p/the-nuremberg-code-and-human-20

          norm – how does it feel to be a rat in an experiment? Better you than one of those adorable Beagles huh

          I reckon we need to replace chimps and dogs with people over 75 in those lab experiments. I betcha if their families were paid 10k they’d drop grandpa off at the lab

    • so Russia exported almost a normal level to Europe in March.

      the month after the Great Day of 2/24/2022.

      then the Eurotards went all craaazy NATZO and began sending weapons to the country that Russia was fighting.

      if this was a soccer match between Russia and Europe, that was a disastrous “own goal” by Europe.

      “goooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooal”!

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Doesn’t look good!

  23. Fast Eddy says:

    What this means, is that evidence was published that proves that the spike protein is an epigenetic factor acting on DNA repair mechanisms to induce cancer. Period. And then it was retracted. Following peer review.

    https://jessicar.substack.com/p/do-the-covid-19-injections-contain

    Not only cancer… but Turbo Cancer… in young healthy people who generally do not get cancer….

    And the thing is….

    They will never connect the dots!

    • Tim Groves says:

      You beat me to it again!

      And no, they will never connect the dots, let alone fill in the crossword or solve the sudoku puzzle!

      I have recently been corresponding with my triple-vaxed and long-covid-suffering younger brother, and he is an exemplar of the Dunning–Kruger effect.

      He argued that we should have shifted to renewables decades ago and then we wouldn’t be in this mess.

      When I countered that in the absence of fossil fuels, we wouldn’t be here at all, and produced statistics correlating the population of England with the fossil fuel consumption of that country, he replied with:

      “That outrageous statistic of linking population growth just to exploiting fossil fuels is exactly the problem highlighted by Disraeli. It is obviously the result of an explosion of understanding in all fields of science and engineering. John Snow and Lister were just as important as Stevenson, along with advances in agriculture and the discovery of new food crops, etc.”

      You see that Gail, it isn’t wrong to link population growth to exploiting fossil fuels; it’s outrageous! Normies are outraged by the mere suggestion. It offends them.

      This outrage creates an emotional barrier that prevents them from even considering ideas that are beyond the pale, heretical, haram, verboten, outside the Overton window, or likely to cause an individual to experience cognitive dissonance. A tsunami of adrenaline washes over their cerebral cortex, steam blows out of their nostrils and ears, and blue screen appears in front of their mind bearing the words: “Keep calm and carry on. Normal programing will resume shortly.”

      • Fast Eddy says:

        What would happen if you showed him that Germany has gone whole hog on renewables and has the most expensive electricity in the developed world because when the wind does not blow and the sun does not shine – they have to keep a back up system (usually coal) firing to ensure round the clock electricity.

        Supported by:

        Why Germany’s nuclear phaseout is leading to more coal burning
        Between 2011 and 2015 Germany will open 10.7 GW of new coal fired power stations. This is more new coal coal capacity than was constructed in the entire two decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall. The expected annual electricity production of these power stations will far exceed that of existing solar panels and will be approximately the same as that of Germany’s existing solar panels and wind turbines combined. Solar panels and wind turbines however have expected life spans of no more than 25 years. Coal power plants typically last 50 years or longer. At best you could call the recent developments in Germany’s electricity sector contradictory. https://carboncounter.wordpress.com/2015/06/06/why-germanys-nuclear-phaseout-is-leading-to-more-coal-burning/

        Germany Runs Up Against the Limits of Renewables
        Even as Germany adds lots of wind and solar power to the electric grid, the country’s carbon emissions are rising. Will the rest of the world learn from its lesson? After years of declines, Germany’s carbon emissions rose slightly in 2015, largely because the country produces much more electricity than it needs. That’s happening because even if there are times when renewables can supply nearly all of the electricity on the grid, the variability of those sources forces Germany to keep other power plants running. And in Germany, which is phasing out its nuclear plants, those other plants primarily burn dirty coal. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601514/germany-runs-up-against-the-limits-of-renewables/

      • Fast Eddy says:

        And how would he respond to this?

        “To provide most of our power through renewables would take hundreds of times the amount of rare earth metals that we are mining today,” according to Thomas Graedel at the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies. So renewable energy resources like windmills and solar PV can not ever replace fossil fuels, there’s not enough of many essential minerals to scale this technology up. http://energyskeptic.com/2014/high-tech-cannot-last-rare-earth-metals/

        Renewable energy ‘simply won’t work’: Top Google engineers

        Two highly qualified Google engineers who have spent years studying and trying to improve renewable energy technology have stated quite bluntly that whatever the future holds, it is not a renewables-powered civilisation: such a thing is impossible.
        Both men are Stanford PhDs, Ross Koningstein having trained in aerospace engineering and David Fork in applied physics. These aren’t guys who fiddle about with websites or data analytics or “technology” of that sort: they are real engineers who understand difficult maths and physics, and top-bracket even among that distinguished company.

        Even if one were to electrify all of transport, industry, heating and so on, so much renewable generation and balancing/storage equipment would be needed to power it that astronomical new requirements for steel, concrete, copper, glass, carbon fibre, neodymium, shipping and haulage etc etc would appear.

        All these things are made using mammoth amounts of energy: far from achieving massive energy savings, which most plans for a renewables future rely on implicitly, we would wind up needing far more energy, which would mean even more vast renewables farms – and even more materials and energy to make and maintain them and so on. The scale of the building would be like nothing ever attempted by the human race.

        In reality, well before any such stage was reached, energy would become horrifyingly expensive – which means that everything would become horrifyingly expensive (even the present well-under-one-per-cent renewables level in the UK has pushed up utility bills very considerably).

        http://techcrunch.com/2011/11/23/google-gives-up-on-green-tech-investment-initiative-rec/

        BTW – I feel your pain — I have a brother who unhinged when I asked him how many solar panels and batteries would be necessary to power the smelters to make all the materials required to make solar panels — he was so pissed off that he left the room and went somewhere to pout.

        Hahaha…

      • NomadicBeer says:

        “he is an exemplar of the Dunning–Kruger effect.”

        I researched a bit this effect after being accused of it by Fast Eddy (yes, I know he is a troll but I am always ready to learn).

        D-K effect is a cognitive bias (basically intellectual immodesty) and not an emotional bias.

        Most people in thrall of the narrative are hooked emotionally. I don’t know HOW they got so hooked but in general, cognitive dissonance combined with strong emotions leads to cultish behavior (as you notice too).

        Anyway, just nitpicking but I think we should try to use the proper labels for things.

        • Tim Groves says:

          Point taken. 🙂

          Although, I am sure immodesty has an emotional component, and that plays apart K-D isn’t concerned with the emotional side and and states something along the lines of the dumber people are the smarter they judge themselves to be. As you say, it is a cognitive bias.

          Perhaps before D-K came along, people exhibiting the behavior it measures would have simply been described as arrogant.

          Smart arrogant people are irritating, but they don’t stand out so much because we recognize that they have something to be arrogant about. Dumb ones, though, are intolerable!!!

      • Kowalainen says:

        Never jolt the egotistical fantasy land of those who have procreated before coming to terms with the bleak reality of blowing through finite resources.

        One does not simply pull the rug under themselves incarnated. It is out of the question. The ego will never allow for that level of irresponsibility.

        Primates gonna primate even when the chain saw of depletion is going full gas at the trunk of the tree from where they’re projecting archaic rapacious primate traits.

        It is what it is.
        A lost cause.
        Failed species.
        Let it sink in and revel in the bleakness.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Having children is the way the system works. They can be a joy, no matter how short their lives.

          What is unnatural is today’s fixation on keeping every child and adult alive, no matter how poorly they are adapted to today’s world. Also, trying to extend lives when people’s bodies are clearly deteriorating.

  24. Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
    Gail Tverberg says:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-to-keep-last-three-nuclear-power-plants-running-in-policy-u-turn-11660661914

    Germany to Keep Last Three Nuclear-Power Plants Running in Policy U-Turn

    “Move prompted by the mounting economic war with Russia marks the first departure from a two-decade policy to abandon nuclear energy”

    . . .by allowing the plants, which together account for around 6% of the country’s electricity production, to stay online, Berlin would remove the need to replace them with gas- or coal-powered plants, allowing gas to be used in areas where it can’t be replaced by other fuels.

    Mothballed coal plants have already been brought back online to prevent energy blackouts after Russia slashed gas supplies in June, a decision that will complicate Berlin’s plans to cut greenhouse-gas emissions and reduce air pollution.

    The government has also drafted two executive orders outlining measures to reduce gas and power consumption in the country over the next two years, including by lowering the temperature in public buildings. The country’s energy regulator estimates that gas consumption will need to be cut by 20% if Germany is to avoid a gas shortfall this winter and next.

  25. Fast Eddy says:

    Date:July 27, 2022 Source:American Academy of Neurology

    Summary: People who eat the highest amounts of ultra-processed foods like soft drinks, chips and cookies may have a higher risk of developing dementia than those who eat the lowest amounts, according to a new study. Researchers also found that replacing ultra-processed foods in a person’s diet with unprocessed or minimally processed foods was associated with a lower risk.

    On average, ultra-processed foods made up 9% of the daily diet of people in the lowest group, an average of 225 grams per day, compared to 28% for people in the highest group, or an average of 814 grams per day. One serving of items like pizza or fish sticks was equivalent to 150 grams. The main food group contributing to high ultra-processed food intake was beverages, followed by sugary products and ultra-processed dairy.

    In the lowest group, 105 of the 18,021 people developed dementia, compared to 150 of the 18,021 people in the highest group.

    After adjusting for age, gender, family history of dementia and heart disease and other factors that could affect risk of dementia, researchers found that for every 10% increase in daily intake of ultra-processed foods, people had a 25% higher risk of dementia.

    Researchers also used study data to estimate what would happen if a person substituted 10% of ultra-processed foods with unprocessed or minimally processed foods, like fresh fruit, vegetables, legumes, milk and meat. They found that such a substitution was associated with a 19% lower risk of dementia.

    “Our results also show increasing unprocessed or minimally processed foods by only 50 grams a day, which is equivalent to half an apple, a serving of corn, or a bowl of bran cereal, and simultaneously decreasing ultra-processed foods by 50 grams a day, equivalent to a chocolate bar or a serving of fish sticks, is associated with 3% decreased risk of dementia,” said Li.

    “It’s encouraging to know that small and manageable changes in diet may make a difference in a person’s risk of dementia.”

    https://rwmalonemd.substack.com/p/well-being-ultra-processed-foods

    • Jan says:

      There are two possible ways for the body to generate energy: a) using glucose and carbonates and b) using ketone bodies and fat.

      The problem: in the moment you eat carbonates, especially sugar, the glucose mechanisms are activated. So people that use ketone bodies go completely without. Looking to the examples it is what you would eat on a keto diet – and the later as a known positive effect on dementia and Alzheimer. As it seems the brain looses the ability to use glucose which shuts down some parts. Keto is also connected to positive effects on cancer and as a way to fight depression. One of the ketones produced is Beto-Hydroxybutyrate and that is a prerequisite for GABA. Check that here:

      https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21684314/

      What is more: German cancer researcher Prof. Kämmerer sees keto as a perfect way for vaccinated people to detox.

      The keto diet has an anti-inflammatory effect on the body that could help to compensate the inflammatory consequences of the mRNA-vax.

      If you try a keto diet it does NOT mean to eat all processed meat and french fries you want. Meat, fish, eggs, vegetables, a little amount of fruits is okay, milk and perhaps soy products and a lot of high quality fats like olive, cocoa, walnut, butter from grass fed cows. A good way to start your keto production is 20g of carbonates per day only. That is already in the veggies.

      • Kim says:

        I have been low carb and keto for more than ten years now. I have almost eliminated the spinal arthritis (ankylosing spondyltits) that began in my youth and in late middle age was threatening to put me in a wheelchair. Ten years ago, if I sat on the floor, in order to stand I would have to crawl across the floor and use a doorway to get to me feet. Every morning i would wake up bent to the left liek the letter C and it would take me two hours to straighten myself.

        I now sprint, lift weights, do back bridges, pull ups…

        But just as remarkable has been the improvement in my cognition and memory, even as I am now into my grey years.

        I am not what you would call a scientific type but – even very early in the piece – after having adopted keto for a few months I began to notice that I was developing a mental habit of thinking about things that it had not been my lifetime’s habit to think about, engineering and mathematial things, power curves and wind resistance and things I am not really equipped to think about. Of course I had no great insights but the point is, I was thinking about them.

        And my memory has improved, especially in the last year. I now read something in a book or on the internet – and I read a lot – and I can recall the name, the book, the part of the book, the website, with a speed and specificity that has been up until recently not normal for me.

        For someone my age, this is very pleasing. I am supposed to be on the Alzheimer’s train but it seems to me that I definitely am not.

        Keto is powerful. I also intermittently fast. Don’t smoke or drink. No coffee.

        Note however, that I know where all of my meat comes from. None of it is grain finished or shot full of pharma. So maybe that limits the amount of glyphosate in it too.

      • Kim says:

        Also about keto, people should remember that it is a high-(good) fat diet, not a high-protein diet. This is important bcs protein is converted to glucose. Eating too much protein with too little fat is not going to solve any insulin resistance problems you may have.

        • Tim Groves says:

          So, perhaps chocolate and cheesecake are compatible with a keto diet? If it’s low-sugar chocolate and low-car cheesecake? I could live with that.

          • Jan says:

            There are keto recipes for both but the usual products have too much carbonates. 20g per day is 500g of milk/yoghurt, a few berries or a kohlrabi. There is no room for a few hundred grams of sugar or flour. You also don’t want it. Keto means you have never again a ravenous hunger.

            After some time your taste changes.

      • Tim Groves says:

        Yeah! But people on a keto diet smell funny—at both ends!

        There’s a whole industry of products that claim to get rid of keto body odor.

        Wouldn’t it be better to just enjoy that chocolate bar and that cheesecake and grow senile and incontinent with dignity?

  26. banned says:

    When you look at death rates in the USA and try to make a analysis as to cause one thing to consider is opioid deaths are above 100k a year now. Fentanyl has largely replaced heroin now most of the street opioids have no other narcotic in them including various pills stamped to mimic pharmaceutical products. Xanex pills on the street are largely fentanyl a rather significant difference in labeling- a benzo vs opioid. Even a significant portion of powders sold as cocaine has some fentanyl in it. Eddy take note. Dont know about NZ but I do know its a ways from Bolivia. Fentanyl is the hamburger helper of illicit street drugs. Heroin has virtually disappeared from the illicit street drug market east of the Mississippi. Its a lot easier to cook fentanyl from China precursors in Mexico and get it across that rather porous border than grow poppies, extract opium, extract morphine, convert it to heroin, and smuggle it from Afghanistan. The fentanyl massacre coincides to some degree with the injection rollouts so causal analysis needs to take that into account.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      The thing is…

      If only Bolivian Blow was laced with Fentanyl …. that would kill two birds with one stone!

      Fast Eddy wants BB … but HE has no BB… HE is always nagging me about this … why can’t you get us some BB???? I don’t have the contacts in NZ….

      In HK it was easy — you just called ‘The Guy’ and he’d come pick you up in his BMW … you’d drive around the block… he’d drop you off and … it was all good.

      Could try Fed Ex Bolivia … surely that’s 96% of their business?

      • banned says:

        LOL. Im glad. I didnt figure NZ was a cesspool of drugs.

      • Yorchichan says:

        Could try Fed Ex Bolivia … surely that’s 96% of their business?

        I doubt the package would make it through NZ customs. Seems FE slipped up when selecting a place to survive the end of the world.

        If one wanted to be a psycho killer with vey little chance of getting caught, selling druggs laced with poison from a dark web marketplace would be a great way to do it. Maybe it does happen?

        • Fast Eddy says:

          who needs the dark web… just slap a Pfizer label on it and like the BBC the fools will trust it — and inject it directly into their blood stream and brain

          BTW – how does one get rid of one of those super strain infections? They guy I mentioned has a tube that runs through his veins right into his heart and has been mainlining antibiotics… and he’s not clear….

          Sucks to have VAIDS and not be aware of it — then you go out and take another Pfizer injection….

          One almost feels sorry for the VAIDSies…. like one might the re tard ed child of meth sniffing crack head like Super Snatch SINdy… the kid never had a chance….

          norm maybe you could try to get custody of your ‘love child’

  27. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Price of zinc surged as one of the largest European smelters halts production due to skyrocketing energy prices:
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaTl5hfWYAIiwJB?format=jpg&name=small

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      If there isn’t enough zinc, this will lead to supply chain problems for other things.

      • Adonis says:

        Examples please

        • Withnail says:

          galvanised steel used for many things including car and truck chassis.

        • banned says:

          One might regard steel as a key component of industrial civilization. It has a flaw. It rusts. You can add components to it making it less susceptible to rust-stainless steel- but this is expensive and strength is lowered.

          Generally a coating of some kind is called for with carbon steel. It may be as simple as vinyl. The most ubiquitous coating is galvanization which is a coating of zinc. The reason is the cost is very low and its performance is comparable to a epoxy coating costing much more. A huge increase in service life of steel components exposed to elements has been provided by zinc coatings up until now. The cost of zinc coatings has been so low it has often been taken for granted. Its really quite humorous. I have regarded zinc coatings as “cheap” because the cost is low not because the performance is poor. If they get expensive will the next generation regard what we have took for granted to be “high class” because the cost is high?

          That the “garbage metal” zinc is getting in short supply is truly a indicator that our consumption in a finite world is a reality that will define many aspects of our lives and that our perception about the relative worth of things flawed.

          Zinc coating also reduce steel strength but steel is so strong usually a zinc coating is not a issue. Commonly low grades of steel with galvanization are just made thicker for the application. This has been cost effective up until now. Low grades of steel-cheap. Galvanization- cheap. The solution of steel coated with some thickness of zinc will not be easily replaced.

          • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
            Gail Tverberg says:

            Interesting! I know that US pennies are now zinc coated with copper. Before 1983, they were 97.5% copper.

          • Artleads says:

            Thanks banned. Great information. Does it take specific metals to “accept” galvanization with zinc?

    • That is a critical part of industry…if zinc goes …so does a good portion of the economy..too many sticks being taken away from the BAU stack
      https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/united-states-adds-nickel-zinc-critical-minerals-list-andy-home-2021-11-15/

  28. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    China rations electricity to factories as heatwave sees power demand surge

    Move likely to hit output of lithium, used in electric car batteries, from factories in Sichuan where temperatures sit above 40 degrees

    Chinese lithium hub Sichuan province will ration electricity supply to factories until Saturday, state media reported, as a heatwave sends power demands soaring and dries up reservoirs.

    Temperatures in the province – home to nearly 84 million people – have hovered above 40-42 degrees Celsius (104-108 degrees fahrenheit) since last week, according to data from China’s Meteorological Administration, increasing the demand for air conditioning.

    The region relies on dams to generate 80% of its electricity, but rivers in the area have dried up this summer, Beijing’s Water Resources Ministry said.

    The province in China’s south-west produces half the nation’s lithium, used in batteries for electric vehicles, and its hydropower projects provide electricity to industrial hubs along the country’s east coast.

    But the local government has decided to prioritise residential power supply, ordering industrial users in 19 out of 21 cities in the province to suspend production until Saturday, according to a notice issued Sunday.

    Several companies including aluminium producer Henan Zhongfu Industrial and fertiliser producers Sichuan Meifeng Chemical Industry said in stock exchange statements they were suspending production.

    A plant operated by Taiwanese giant and Apple supplier Foxconn in the province has also suspended production, Taipei’s Central news agency reported.

    Some companies will be permitted to operate at a limited capacity, depending on their production needs.

    “Sources estimate at least 1,200 tonnes of lithium output will be cut due to the operations disruptions in these five days,” Susan Zou, an analyst at Rystad Energy, told AFP, adding the cost of lithium carbonate had jumped since Monday.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/16/china-rations-electricity-to-factories-as-heatwave-sees-power-demand-surge

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This lack of electricity is a major problem in China. With citizens as unhappy as they are, the central government doesn’t want to cut back home air conditioning, when it can cut back industry use of electricity.

  29. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    The more US becomes the LNG supplier of the world the more HenryHub’s price will move closer to TTF. Russia just accelerated the process:
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaTmJUiXgAAHPXB?format=jpg&name=medium

  30. https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/coal-price

    US coal 10+ year chart looks a lot like the Europe chart.

    $25 to $75 range breaking higher about 15 months ago.

    now $358

    so the US/Europe coal prices are somewhat parallel just like WTI and Brent.

    but the natural gas prices are very different.

    who knew?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Coal can be shipped almost anywhere, without much difficulty. This is why American coal prices stay fairly parallel to those elsewhere.

      Natural gas has been, and continues to be, very difficult to ship. The US acts as if it is an island by itself, if the natural gas cannot be shipped elsewhere.

      Natural gas producers would like much higher prices. That is why they have built a quite a number of LNG export terminals. There was a fire at one of these terminals, which is temporarily holding up some exports, but the general idea is that the more natural gas is exported, the higher American oil prices will be.

  31. Fast Eddy says:

    https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/my-email-to-dr-margaret-gale-rowe

    This is a joke – of course she won’t engage with him.

    Dunno why Steve does not hire a team of people to bombard FB accounts with charts showing the vaccines are killing … and pointing out that the deaths and injuries of young people, athletes and celebrities are caused by the vaxxes…

    Why would he not do this — if he was really committed to creating vax hesitancy?

  32. Fast Eddy says:

    Today’s eugenics crimes are brought to us courtesy of the shadiest of all legalized drug dealers in Moderna:

    The adapted COVID-19 vaccine made by Moderna targets two different coronavirus variants – the original virus from 2020 and the Omicron variant.

    Think about the absurdity of this latest bideadly injection; how can anyone with any critical thinking accept a drug for strains that no longer exist. This is total madness.

    The decision to grant approval for this booster vaccine in the UK was endorsed by the government’s independent expert scientific advisory body, the Commission on Human Medicines, after carefully reviewing the evidence.

    In each dose of the booster vaccine, ‘Spikevax bivalent Original/Omicron’, half of the vaccine (25 micrograms) targets the original virus strain from 2020 and the other half (25 micrograms) targets Omicron.

    https://2ndsmartestguyintheworld.substack.com/p/potentially-twice-as-deadly-for-two/comments

    • Jan says:

      The point is that they can measure antibody production. I am no specialist, but I guess antibodies are also created after the injection of poison.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      But neither of these virus strains are likely to be circulating. And, right now, nothing circulating is very virulent.

  33. kulmthestatusquo
    kulmthestatusquo says:

    The biggest crime of all is Crime against Civilization.

    The murder of one or two inconsequential people blows over. If it has a lot of ‘juice’ it will be remembered for a while, until everyone involved is dead.

    Crime against Civilization is a much bigger crime.

    Courts tend to side with those who build civilization. For example, some unknown inventor who claims rights for a key part of a machine needed for Civilization’s advancement is unlikely to win in the court.

    It is utilitarianly beneficial to ignore his petty crime, whatever the merits might be. If necessary it might be advisable to shoot up all of his heirs so there would be no one to have claims in the future. Chances are he is a one hit wonder who wants to carve his name to history and wreck the boat. If he is not a one hit wonder, it is likely that he knows the rules of the game and is unlikely to behave like that.

    Not everyone’s rights need to be honored, and not everyone’s dignity needs to be respected. Some are indeed more equal than others, and the vanguards of today’s civilization , I have to say, are much , much more equal than the hoi polloi.

    Cro-Magnon has made a good point. However, today’s winners do know the danger and will instigate measures to prevent any blowbacks of their actions.

    Nguyen Anh, who was a scion of a landowning family, had a gruge against Nguyen Hue (no relation 40% of all Vietnamese have the surname Nguyen) who conquered Vietnam in 1789. Anh fled to France, and with French help he conquered Vietnam in 1804 (although Vietnam would remain a French vassal, then a colony, till 1954). Anh killed everyone from Hue’s entire region.(Hue had died in the meantime but anyone who had anything to do with Hue was killed. Anyone who could trace ancestry from Hue’s great-great-grandfather was carefully scanned and slaughtered.)

    When Anh’s dynasty ended in 1954 its members moved to a luxurious chateau they bought in France, where they continue to live in luxury. Since they had killed every single person who might have anything to do with Hue, there is no chance of revenge.

    That is how people who know how the world works plan ahea.

    • Jan says:

      In this case not only the unvaxxed but even more the vaxxed might feel the urge for a little revenge. The only possibility is a large war that destroys all institutions. But a destruction of France would also affect luxury life. Glad you can now see Kill Bills sacrifice for all of us!

    • Tim Groves says:

      This annihilate the competition idea is common sense in some places, China in days of yore being a prime example. Ruling dynasties there have generally gotten “the chop” when replaced. But the practice has not been practiced with such thoroughness in many places elsewhere. Because elsewhere, the world works differently.

      In many places, the vanquished in a conflict have tended to be exiled or allowed to slip away to remote regions were they could languish in anguish, and this generally worked out tolerably well for both sides in a conflict.

      The behavior of Nguyen Anh may have made sense or been prudent in the context of the Vietnamese society of his time, but at most it was an example of a cultural quirk, and universal conclusions should not be drawn from it. Lots of conquerors and usurpers have let their enemies and their relatives live and still gone on to do really really well.

  34. Lastcall says:

    Guess he may be telling ‘His Truth’?

    “Now, fast forward to the early 21st century when we just don’t need the vast majority of the population,” he concluded, “because because the future is about developing more and more sophisticated technology, like artificial intelligence [and] bioengineering, Most people don’t contribute anything to that, except perhaps for their data, and whatever people are still doing which is useful, these technologies increasingly will make redundant and will make it possible to replace the people.”

    https://www.technocracy.news/harari-dont-need-the-vast-majority-of-the-population/

    • ivanislav says:

      I’m not on board with what he seems to be striving for (total surveillance and elitist tyranny), but his analysis below isn’t wrong:


      A lot of people sense that they are being left behind and left out of the story, even if their material conditions are still relatively good. In the 20th century, what was common to all the stories — the liberal, the fascist, the communist — is that the big heroes of the story were the common people, not necessarily all people, but if you lived, say, in the Soviet Union in the 1930s, life was very grim, but when you looked at the propaganda posters on the walls that depicted the glorious future, you were there. You looked at the posters which showed steel workers and farmers in heroic poses, and it was obvious that this is the future.

      Now, when people look at the posters on the walls, or listen to TED talks, they hear a lot of these these big ideas and big words about machine learning and genetic engineering and blockchain and globalization, and they are not there. They are no longer part of the story of the future, and I think that — again, this is a hypothesis — if I try to understand and to connect to the deep resentment of people, in many places around the world, part of what might be going there is people realize — and they’re correct in thinking that — that, ‘The future doesn’t need me. You have all these smart people in California and in New York and in Beijing, and they are planning this amazing future with artificial intelligence and bio-engineering and in global connectivity and whatnot, and they don’t need me. Maybe if they are nice, they will throw some crumbs my way like universal basic income,’ but it’s much worse psychologically to feel that you are useless than to feel that you are exploited.

      And then of course there’s the energy angle, which he misses here, but you can’t expect every speaker to address that in every talk. The Davos crowd seems to understand the acute seriousness of energy/resource scarcity, if one follows their actions (broadly) and hysteria at not getting Russia’s resources (as a particular example).

      • rufustiresias999
        rufustiresias999 says:

        I loved Harari’s book Sapiens, and his global view on human history. But I don’t follow him on his views on the future. During an interview, he was asked about energy resources. He replied “there is no energy supply problem, energy is infinite”.
        I was done with him.

        • Xabier says:

          Noah ‘Nosferatu’ Hariri is a noxious fraud.

          Saying energy supply is ‘infinite’ is obvious nonsense: but it serves to distract from the rationale for the genocide, like the ‘Green Transition’.

      • MM says:

        My friend Stalin would say:
        “The gunpoint is always just one useless eater away from you”

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      It is tempting to think that “more and more sophisticated technology, like artificial intelligence [and] bioengineering” is the way of the future, but that is not really the way it is. We reach diminishing returns to added complexity, and the economy goes downhill.

  35. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    Ukrainian troops hit the cooling system of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant and containers with nuclear waste.

    “The Ukrainian armies fired at containers with nuclear waste on the territory of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. One shell exploded 10 meters from the container says Volodymyr Rogov, Senior Board Member on Solovyov Live TV.”
    https://twitter.com/ntvfrance/status/1559603190877798402?s=20&t=AvXW5FFLlIvjMWhzSKnYGA

    • banned says:

      How could this not be regarded as a act of terror? For one reason or another the Russian advance has slowed to virtually nothing. The last real fortified position after Lysichansk was Kramatorsk (sp). They absolutely blew through Lisichansk. Kramatorsk still in Ukrainian military hands. Lysichansk was supposedly 3x the fortification of Kramatorsk. Why have they not finished? HIMARS changed things? God help us if the Ukrainians disperse nuclear waste. I wouldnt rule out use of tactical nukes by the Russians to clear the last fortified Ukrainian positions if they do. Gloves off. Then its on like donkey kong NATO comes in. With nukes already used. God help us.

      • ivanislav says:

        “the Russian advance has slowed to virtually nothing”

        Every time they take a break to rotate troops and reinforce positions etc etc, people lose their heads and the western media starts proclaiming the Russians are down and out.

        You are aware that Russia is building up many battle groups for what looks like a massive (compared to the limited scope up till now) action beyond DPR/LPR?

      • Rodster says:

        “How could this not be regarded as an act of terror?”

        It is but the Crime Syndicate known as the USA just looks the other way as Ukraine harbors Neo-Natzees. This is what you call a top-down narrative from government to media.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This sounds like way too close for comfort.

  36. Michael Le Merchant
    Michael Le Merchant says:

    This has gone viral on Chinese internet.

    “I call on every comrade to take the lead to buy a property.

    If you are on your 1st property, then buy a 2nd one; if on 2nd, then buy a 3rd; already on 3rd? There’s always room for the 4th.”
    https://twitter.com/HAOHONG_CFA/status/1559546458063470593

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This is worse than Alan Greenspan’s “No Income No Jobs” mortgage loans in the early 2,000s.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I think that’s why everyone with a pulse in China has been doing for the past decade+ …. the well is dry.

    • Rodster says:

      Infinite property buying. Who would have thought that could work.

    • Bam_Man
      Bam_Man says:

      Keep the property Ponzi scheme going. It is your duty , comrade!

  37. https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/LQU22

    Europe coal spikes to 425

    on the 5 year chart, it was “normally” in the 50 to 100 range, until the past 15 months.

    fascsict EU “leaders” are destroyying the lives of millions of regular citizens.

    though perhaps many of these citizens are accomplices in the Greentard Eurotard fantasy of let’s end FF and live happily ever after.

    “freezing in the dark” oh no wait:

    “hungry and freezing in the dark” soon.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      It is hard to believe that anyone would believe that the current population can live without fossil fuels. Many a small population of hunter-gatherers can. We are missing too many things.

      • NomadicBeer says:

        Gail,
        I know you know that but for people that don’t know, here is the area required for a hunter-gatherer (assuming a healthy ecosystem):

        10 sq km per person.

        The reason agriculturalists won is not because they were happier (they were slaves) or healthier (they were shorter and sicker) but simply because there were 1000x more of them since agriculture can support so many more people (for a while before desertification and soil erosion causes collapse).

        • banned says:

          Thats a LOT smaller than what a cougar uses. Ill make optimists out of yall yet.

        • Xabier says:

          Pastoralists, however, were often tall and strong.

          Much preferable to dreary old back-breaking agriculture.

          Goat, bear and bull fertility gods, raids on miserable wretches in the lowlands to seize their oats, animals and pretty girls, howling like wolves. OK, maybe sturdy girls.

          What fun!

          • Kowalainen says:

            They likely traded goods and people with the local despots.

            Disease they brought from afar likely made short work of the malnutritioned farmers with little exposure to the pathogens they carried around.

            Let’s not forget that they were “normal” people back then. I doubt the generic pastoralist went around and murdered “trading partners”. The pity is real.

            For sure the occasional foul playing despot got his rear end handed to him from time to time.

            Eventually they ended up running the show with some “intermarriage” and what have you. And that was basically the end of the Neolithic farmer in Europe.

            https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/04/170404084429.htm

        • Jan says:

          I guess hunter-gatherers had seeds in their pockets and changed their eco-system a bit here and there to return and find nuts or herbs or crop. Perhaps they even released half tame cattle. We more or less still do that on the alps.

          Metal production could have been a reason to settle down after the mineral placers had been exploited and it became necessary to follow the mineral veins.

  38. US natural gas spikes today to $9.20

    Europe? https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/TG*1

    spiked to 251 and settled at 225 wooooooo!!!!!!!

    225 conversion to US pricing is $68

    energy equivalent to oil = $410 barrel of oil

    good times! is winter coming?

    EU woketard fascsict “leaders” in Brussels should be…

  39. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/16/american-airlines-agrees-to-buy-20-supersonic-planes-from-boom.html

    first of all, a jet named Boom?

    (yeah, sonic boom etc but Boom really?)

    “The deal is the second firm order in the last two years for Boom, still years from building its first commercial airplane.”

    years away from going BOOM!

  40. banned says:

    Russia gave Iran a satellite. Launched out of Kazakhstan. Im sure everyone remembers Trump gloating via twitter when the satellite launch out of Iran mysteriously failed. Idiot.

    This is a huge increase in Irans long range missile capabilities. Irans real threat lies in its abilty to shut down the strait of Hormez. 12 miles wide. They can do that with artillery.

    Long range missile capability is not necessarily directed at Israel. If Saudi facilities are destroyed in large quantity- not just the previous limited small payload drone attack on the refinery- oil will be denied to the world. Stopping ships moving through the strait of hormez along with a destruction of Saudi oil production facilities would produce a new world, not a very nice one.

    In a couple of years Iran will have the capability to shut down Saudi oil production for a long long time if they dont already have that capability. If the JCPOA is reentered now Iran has taken a huge leap forward they are a lot closer to nuclear weapon capability. Trump really screwed the pooch in regard to Iran. I think it was ego to disassemble Obamas agreement. There are no real military non nuclear solutions to Iran that dont end saudi oil production. Diplomacy once again was the only possibility for solutions and once again the USA comes to the table with a ingenuous and weak position. By our willingness to do anything to maintain complete control we have ended up in a situation where we have no control. Both manipulative people and manipulative regimes suffer this fate sooner or later.

    https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2022/08/09/2755073/iranian-satellite-khayyam-sent-into-space-by-russian-rocket-video

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Interesting! Israel and Iran have been long-time enemies. So have Saudi Arabia and Iran. With Russia helping Iran along, more things become possible for Iran.

      I am not certain how much capability the satellite images will really give Iran, beyond what it has now. It will be able to better know where to aim missiles, but it seems like they have known for a long time where the Strait of Hormez is.

    • YX says:

      Hello Chamberlain – Negotiating with Iran is a fools errand. Negotiations with Iran were remorseful efforts to reduce the standing of the USA in the world due to the assassination of a past president. Time to move on. Only fools take any words as truth from Iran.

      • Lastcall says:

        Ha, and who would trust the USSA? Only fools…

      • banned says:

        Someone gave Iran a gift greater than Russia ever has or ever will. The elimination of Sunni Iraq as a nation state guaranteed Iran Shia dominance in the region.

        Of course Saddam’s real sin was a lessening of Sunni vs Shia conflict so this could be wrong. A Islam united against the west could be considered even a worse outcome for the west than Iran dominance. The Iraq war took care of that quite well. Sunnis were even wedding Shias in a secular fashion in Iraq under Saddam. Had he no shame?

      • Withnail says:

        To be an enemy of the USA is dangerous, to be an ally is fatal, as Germany is currently finding out.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        They locked down the world for Covy…

        But they allow this to go ahead hahaha

        It also means that mass gatherings of people from around the world are much more relevant when it comes to monkeypox, than they were for SARS-COV-2. When people hold a gay festival, where tens of thousands of gay men from all sorts of cities across a continent gather together, monkeypox gets an opportunity to take the best improvements it could come up with in those cities and put many of those improvements together in one new genome.

        And so although I’m pretty sure it’s hopeless, I’m going to tell you once again that the Southern Decadence festival that’s going to be held in New Orleans in a few days is a very bad idea.

        I’m not going to change this, you my dear reader are not going to change this either. I’m not going to earn a quick buck by writing about it either. I could write an essay every day, I could even have it go viral, but men in New Orleans will still be publicly screwing each other in broad daylight a few days from now. So you might be wondering: Why do I even bother?

        hahahahahaha

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This kind of virus will tend to evolve to give more pustules, since this helps the spread of the virus.

      The vaccine cannot possible contain the virus. It will just give a false sense of security, and let the disease spread more.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        If you look at the current situation, it’s obvious that the vaccines haven’t just failed, but rather, through their failure have created a situation in which an effective vaccine is now impossible too. Genetic diversity of this virus has increased so dramatically that attempting to vaccinate people against any particular strain will just cause another strain of this virus to infect us instead.

        https://www.rintrah.nl/monkeypox-vaccination-a-recipe-for-disaster/

        hahaha

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          I like the posts “rintah” puts up, including this one.

  41. Rodster says:

    So ZH posted this article and mentioned that the two gay men who contracted MonkeyPox may have been getting a little too frisky with their dog Fido. No surprise in today’s world.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/first-dog-infected-monkeypox-after-sharing-bed-gay-couple

    • Xabier says:

      They took ‘puppy play’ somewhat too literally, it would seem…..

      So, when are we going to tag and lock up these people as a threat to public health?

      Gay festivals should be banned at once, their bars closed.

      Bushy areas of public parks should be swept by searchlights, etc.

  42. Rodster says:

    “just as it makes no sense to mandate vaccines.”

    It certainly makes perfect sense if you are raking in billions in profits while being given immunity by the Federal Government.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Exactly!

  43. Kim says:

    I am aware of the saying that “consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds” but I am kind of stuck on it anyway. Just how I am. But Senator Scott Wiener of California has no concerns about hobgoblins. In fact, in the area of consistency, he is a special kind of doozie.

    Wiener was one of the Democrats who sponsored a law, AB 1993, “which would link employment to vaccination status. Full-time employees and independent contractors would have to supply proof they received two doses of an approved COVID-19 vaccine within 45 days. The state would grant medical and religious exemptions, but the Department of Fair Employment and Housing, the Department of Public Health, and the Division of Occupational Safety and Health would determine those exemptions.”

    On another occasion seemingly less concerned with issues of public health, Wiener was behind Senate Bill (SB) 239, which reduced penalties for knowingly exposing a sexual partner to HIV.

    “Under current California law, it is felony offense punishable by 3 to 8 years in prison. The new law, which was signed by Brown on Oct. 6 and takes effect January 1, changes this to a misdemeanor, carrying a 6-month prison term — the same punishment as knowingly exposing someone to other communicable diseases.”

    “The law also reduces the penalty for knowingly donating blood infected with HIV from a felony to a misdemeanor. ”

    Clearly, this Senator Wiener is a real hawk when the issue is public health.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/new-california-law-reduces-penalty-knowingly-exposing-someone-hiv-n809416

    Scott (no not Anthony!) Wiener was also behind SB 145 which would “allow a sex offender who lures a minor with the intent to commit a felony (i.e. a sex act) the ability to escape registering as a sex offender as long as the offender is within 10 years of age of the minor. No specification is made as to whether the sexual offender is straight or LGBT.”

    “As written, SB 145 would add a section to the state’s penal code (Section 290.55) stipulating that as long as the offender is “not more than 10 years older than the minor,” they are not automatically mandated to register as a sex offender.”

    And just think, if the predator gives the minor HIV, it would just be a misdemeanor!

    So what about Senator Wiener and Monkey Pox?

    “‘Cover up Your Bumps’: California State Senator Encourages Gay Orgies During Monkeypox Outbreak”

    https://redstate.com/brandon_morse/2022/08/02/cover-up-your-bumps-california-state-senator-encourages-gay-orgies-during-monkeypox-outbreak-n605746

    “If people want to have sex, they are going to have sex,” Wiener told the Washington Post on Thursday. “I know people who normally go to sex parties who will not. People will make their own decisions about their own risk levels.”

    https://www.independentsentinel.com/state-senator-rails-against-monkeypox-sex-shaming-of-gay-men/

    https://californiaglobe.com/articles/sen-scott-wiener-calls-for-monkeypox-state-of-emergency/

    And at the same time of course Wiener also advocates for mass vaccination, vaccination, vaccination! Yes, clearly this senator is unhaunted by the hobgoblins of consistency.

    But maybe all of this may be easier for homosexuals, as they are apparently not at all fussy about what gets stuck into them, nor about informed consent, nor even about the age of consent.

    The world has simply become a madhouse.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Agreed: “The world has simply become a madhouse.”

    • Tim Groves says:

      A very penetrating post there.

      Wiener seems to be a hot dog!

  44. Self Organizing Chaos
    Xi’s zero-Covid policy sparks economic chaos in China
    Szu Ping Chan

    The virus situation remains a risk,” said analysts at Capital Economics. “New infections have been climbing again. Even if the current outbreak is contained, the zero-Covid strategy means that targeted lockdowns will remain commonplace, depressing consumer activity and spending.
    “The slow progress in expanding vaccination among the elderly means the zero-Covid policy won’t be abandoned any time soon.”
    In a bid to calm markets, China’s central bank trimmed interest rates for the second time this year, despite fears of rising inflation. The People’s Bank of China cut two key lending rates, though Craig Botham, chief China Economist at Pantheon
    Macroeconomics says the move will do little to support consumer spending, because there just isn’t any appetite to borrow.
    “The People’s Bank of China cut interest rates [we] imagine because they felt like they had to be seen to do something, rather than because they think it will have much effect,” he says.
    “Availability of funds is not the problem, loan demand is. Equally, the price of credit is unlikely to be the deciding factor, particularly with interbank rates so low.”
    An even bigger worry is the growing number of young people who cannot find a job. A world where policymakers keep switching economic activity on and off has caused uncertainty among businesses. Many can’t be sure how many staff they’ll need today, let alone in a year’s time.
    Around 11m Chinese graduates entered a very uncertain jobs market this year, which has pushed up youth unemployment to 19.9pc – the highest level in years.
    There is also China’s rapidly deteriorating property market, which threatens to exert a long-term drag on Chinese growth. House prices are falling, and attempts to engineer a soft landing have been challenging.
    Official data on Monday showed property investment between January and July dropped 6.4pc compared with the same period in 2021, accelerating the 5.4pc decline marked in the first half of the year.
    Lawrence Brainard, an economist at TS Lombard, says local governments have been using cash to prop up projects and “keep prices from falling precipitously”.
    But he adds: “The option of defaulting has become increasingly attractive to developers, since so far there appear to be no consequences from walking away from troubled projects.”
    Uncertainty surrounding the market means nobody is building at the moment. And an increasing number of Chinese homebuyers are refusing to pay mortgages on properties they have bought because developers can no longer finish them.
    The number of new construction projects is now lower than the trough reached in 2020, when the pandemic first hit activity.
    Most analysts believe China has the financial firepower to avoid a widespread property crash. But Mr Brainard believes the alternative may be worse.
    ….
    Raymond Yeung, chief China economist at ANZ Bank, says China must reverse its strict Covid rules if it is to avoid a self-inflicted downturn.
    “Authorities’ zero-tolerance approach will continue to restrict social mobility and interrupt business activities,” he says.

    This is beginning to have a suspicious odor to it all…maybe a flushing is the next step.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The death rate with respect to the Covid that is going around now is close to zero. It makes no sense to close everything down, just as it makes no sense to mandate vaccines.

      • Artleads says:

        One problem might be the absence of a transition plan away from BAU (heavy). Thus the need to confuse, maim, destabilize, control. A better alternative might be a rational plan to downsize by roughly 90% and do it in a socially and politically acceptable way. The people able to shut down and vaccinate might just not be able to imagine such an alternative. Radical decentralization might well be required.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          “a rational plan to downsize by roughly 90% and do it in a socially and politically acceptable way.”

          I am afraid this is not possible.

          • Kowalainen says:

            Yeah, supply them with bicycles and oats. It’s for sure going to be a blockbuster.

            Perhaps not.
            It is what it is.

          • Jane says:

            “I am afraid this is not possible.”

            Do you mean from a sociopolitical point of view, or from a physics point of view?

            It seems to me that lots of people can be saved and eased into new life styles if genuine plans were being made—for instance to replace private cars with mass transit, to set up soup kitchens to provide cheap sustenance, to provide people with meters so that they can consciously conserve energy, etc.

            The purchase of e-bikes and trikes could be subsidized, instead of the purchase of SUVs and pickups.

            Really, no effort has been made to quantify the effectiveness of conservation measures. Conservation authorities could start with pilot programs in communities to measure the actual “negawatts.”
            How can any kind of a softer landing be achieved in the absence of metrics? Reducing carbon footprint seems to have gone by the board, even though doing so should save people and communities a lot of money and fuel.

            In my next house—which I plan to buy in a relatively out-of-the-way location where there is plenty of water and many farms—I will have water and power meters installed in very visible locations so that I myself can monitor my usage, just as I monitor the use of gas in my car.

            The first thing I will have built for me is a sturdy laundry frame for drying laundry outdoors. Electric driers are the biggest waste of power in the household, not to mention commercial laundry outfits.

            It seems to me we just have not even begun to try to power down in any realistic societywide way.

            • Jan says:

              Jane,

              we are not talking about drying laundry outside. All that belongs to the point saving energy.

              If you look to your wallet you can never fill it by spending less. There is a moment of deficiency.

              In the moment the available energy falls under a certain level there is no possibility to live in cities. The food will never arrive there. There isbhistorical research on that: the Romans managed to bring in wheat by boat, the Viennese have very good soil in front of the city and brought in veggies by horse-cart. Horses though need a lot of space to have their hay and oats grown that won’t be usable for food for humans anymore.

              In such a moment all supply chains will crash. Your washing machine in the wilderness with all the meters might work for a few months still – but sooner or later you need spare parts. You can probably learn to cut out some metal from your car and heat and forge it, perhaps for a new knife. But you won’t be able to make a new stainless steel spare part for your washer. So it will be useless. Better buy an axe, perhaps even your kids can use it, if they take care.

              I know that is a very depressing thought. We are all suffering with that. Most people deny the idea, because they cannot stand it.

              If everything crashes there won’t be computers, ships or even education to maintain pipelines or for extracting oil or gas. It will just all fall to pieces and you will just have what you can do with your hands.

              If you buy some flax seeds or some sheep you might be able to produce some clothes. In my area a lot of people still know. But they are old and without glasses…

              Now some people say if the world breaks they have no intention to live on. Others know already today that they will pass on life.

              If you are here you are into a prepper’s discussion. It might be great to think on more levels, let’s call it the onion principle. You need a way to stay in the current system to finance all. You need to get some seeds, knowledge, sheep, hens to go on. In the middle you might need a gas stove or a grill or a tent to run away or some storage.

              It is up to you! Good luck!

            • banned says:

              Ahhh. Where to start. I havnt had a clothes dryer for twenty years. If you date single moms thats a real relationship killer. Kiddos go through the clothes.

              Living rural transportation energy is huge.

              In the household heating or cooling is by far the largest energy usage. This is reduced by

              1. keeping the heated areas of the house small. 600 sq feet is ideal.

              2. high insulation values. r 40 walls r 60 ceiling minimum.

              3.maximizing south facing glazings and minimizing other glazings.

              The truth is people in china or india living 12 to a apartment urban. public transpo. thats green as it gets. Ill let FE take it from here.

              PS. most people use their bills as a their means of measuring energy consumption.
              PSS the reason it wont work is everything is dependent on abundant easy to extract energy.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              it’s not possible because the supply chains would collapse and those left alive would starve and/or be poisoned by the spent fuel ponds

            • Artleads says:

              Jane, I’m glad you weighed in here. I agree with you in spirit, but I understand everyone’s skepticism, especially Gail’s. I interpret what she says as being very broad and general. I can’t see the kind of drastic reorganization in education and politics that it would take to live on 90% less. Just as I can’t see humans going on for long without it.

              As for supply chains crashing–basically, the only material I see that COULD maintain a supply chain is cardboard. But building-as-usual is perhaps the underlying main player in world economy, and it’s run by organized crime. Sure, they come to a wall if THEIR supply chain goes away, but we are very far behind in any reasonable alternative should they go away.

  45. CTG says:

    Europe’s Nuclear & Hydropower Falter With Droughts

    https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/europes-nuclear-hydropower-falter-droughts

    May I know if this is Putin’s fault?

    /do i need a sarc tag?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Europe’s peak nuclear production occurred way back in 2004 based on BP data. Nuclear production, per capita, fell even before 2004, because population was growing.

      Europe’s hydroelectric production has been close to flat since 1995. On a per capita basis, it has been falling.

      Norway has the highest hydroelectric output in Europe. Its output was generally increasing up until 2000, but it has been pretty flat since then. Norway’s output varies somewhat from year to year; I understand that 2022 is a “down” year.

      The second largest hydroelectric energy producer is Sweden. Its output has not been increasing, so on a per capita basis, it is down.

      Turkey has been ramping up its hydroelectric capacity, so that in some years, its production is greater than Sweden’s. Its production is extremely variable, with the weather. I would not include Turkey in Asia, but BP does.

      France has hydroelectric power that was at one time, up with Swedens. Its hydroelectric output has generally fallen since 2001. Not maintaining dams??

      Switzerland’s peak hydroelectric occurred in 2001. I wonder if it is not maintaining its dams.

      Spain’s hydroelectric power is extremely variable from year to year.

  46. CTG says:

    I had a message from my friend working in China. He was very relieved that he was “tested” negative as a positive would mean that his factory has to shutdown.

    I read about IKEA being shutdown because of one positive case (i.e. immediate shudown) and I have seem somewhere (perhaps on MSM) that companies in China are being shutdown due to one case (and there are many companies being affected).

    Tell me if this situation is accelerating and spiraling out of control ?

    • Kim says:

      “Why?” is the question.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Probably because there are not enough resources available to supply all of the factories, plus all of the building of roads, homes, solar power generation sites, and other things China would like. Shutting down for Covid helps prevent rolling blackouts, and thus makes the economy look better to the general public.

        • Kim says:

          That is very scary.

        • Alex says:

          Rabobank’s analyst thinks China’s current problem is the opposite: not a lack of resources, but a lack of economically viable ways to use them.

          “First we saw Chinese data, which stank across the board. Everything was weaker than the weakness already expected, from investment to industrial production to retail sales; and yet supply still grew faster than final demand – showing why China keeps producing huge export surpluses (i.e., these are a sign of weakness, not strength, but some analysts are unable to do simple maths, it seems). On top of that, youth unemployment remained firmly around the 20% level, which is what you expect from a struggling Eurozone periphery economy and not China. […] In short, the risks of a global recession are suddenly much clearer.”

          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/has-empire-struck-back-if-so-there-still-little-new-hope

          I’d wait with guesswork until after the CCP’s congress later this year. Perhaps then the comrades will come up with a new definition of zero-covid policy.

        • banned says:

          With coal at $400 a ton China products may no longer be profitable in a world economy plummeting downwards.

          Ok everyone back to pig farming!

          They wont be happy.

Comments are closed.