Why No Politician Is Willing to Tell Us the Real Energy Story

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No politician wants to tell us the real story of fossil fuel depletion. The real story is that we are already running short of oil, coal and natural gas because the direct and indirect costs of extraction are reaching a point where the selling price of food and other basic necessities needs to be unacceptably high to make the overall economic system work. At the same time, wind and solar and other “clean energy” sources are nowhere nearly able to substitute for the quantity of fossil fuels being lost.

This unfortunate energy story is essentially a physics problem. Energy per capita and, in fact, resources per capita, must stay high enough for an economy’s growing population. When this does not happen, history shows that civilizations tend to collapse.

Figure 1. World fossil fuel energy consumption per capita, based on data of BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Politicians cannot possibly admit that today’s world economy is headed for collapse, in a way similar to that of prior civilizations. Instead, they need to provide the illusion that they are in charge. The self-organizing system somehow leads politicians to put forward reasons why the changes ahead might be desirable (to avert climate change), or at least temporary (because of sanctions against Russia).

In this post, I will try to try to explain at least a few of the issues involved.

[1] Citizens around the world can sense that something is very wrong. It looks like the economy may be headed for a serious recession in the near term.

Figure 2. Index of consumer sentiment and news heard of company changes as reported by the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, based on preliminary indications for August 2022.

Consumer sentiment is at an extraordinarily low level, worse than during the 2008-2009 great recession according to a chart (Figure 2) shown on the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers website. According to the same website, nearly 48% of consumers blame inflation for eroding their standard of living. Food prices have risen significantly. Over the past year, the cost of car ownership has escalated, as has the cost of buying or renting a home.

The situation in Europe is at least as bad, or worse. Citizens are worried about possibly “freezing in the dark” this winter if electricity generation cannot be maintained at an adequate level. Natural gas supplies, mostly purchased from Russia by pipeline, are less available and high-priced. Coal is also high-priced. Because of the fall of the Euro relative to the US dollar, the price of oil in euros is as high as it was in 2008 and 2012.

Figure 3. Inflation-adjusted Brent crude oil price in US dollars and euros, in chart by the US Energy Information Administration, as published in EIA’s August 2022 Short Term Energy Outlook.

Many other countries, besides those in the Eurozone, are experiencing low currencies relative to the dollar. Some examples include Argentina, India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Turkey, Japan, and South Korea.

China has problems with developers of condominium homes for its citizen. Many of these homes cannot be delivered to purchasers as promised. As a protest, buyers are withholding payments on their unfinished homes. To make matters worse, the prices of condominium homes have started to fall, leading to a loss of value of these would-be investments. All of this could lead to serious problems for the Chinese banking industry.

Even with these major problems, central banks in the US, the UK and the Eurozone are raising target interest rates. The US is also implementing Quantitative Tightening, which also tends to raise interest rates. Thus, central banks are intentionally raising the cost of borrowing. It doesn’t take much insight to see that the combination of price inflation and higher borrowing costs is likely to force consumers to cut back on spending, leading to recession.

[2] Politicians will avoid talking about possible future economic problems related to inadequate energy supply.

Politicians want to get re-elected. They want citizens to think that everything is OK. If there are energy supply problems, they need to be framed as being temporary, perhaps related to the war in Ukraine. Alternatively, any issue that arises will be discussed as if it can easily be fixed with new legislation and perhaps a little more debt.

Businesses also want to minimize problems. They want citizens to place orders for their goods and services, without the fear of being laid off. They would like the news media to publish stories saying that any economic dip is likely to be very mild and temporary.

Universities don’t mind problems, but they want the problems to be framed as solvable ones that will offer their students opportunities for jobs that will pay well. A near-term, unsolvable predicament is not helpful at all.

[3] What is wrong is a physics problem. The operation of our economy requires energy of the correct type and the right quantity.

The economy is something that grows through the “dissipation” of energy. Examples of dissipation of energy include the digestion of food to give energy to humans, the burning of fossil fuels, and the use of electricity to power a light bulb. A rise in world energy consumption is highly correlated with growth in the world economy. Falling energy consumption is associated with economic contraction.

Figure 4. Correlation between world GDP measured in “Purchasing Power Parity” (PPP) 2017 International $ and world energy consumption, including both fossil fuels and renewables. GDP is as reported by the World Bank for 1990 through 2021 as of July 26, 2022; total energy consumption is as reported by BP in its 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

In physics terms, the world economy is a dissipative structure, just as all plants, animals and ecosystems are. All dissipative structures have finite lifespans, including the world economy.

This finding is not well known because academic researchers seem to operate in ivory towers. Researchers in economic departments aren’t expected to understand physics and how it applies to the economy. In fairness to academia, the discovery that the economy is a dissipative structure did not occur until 1996. It takes a long time for findings to filter through from one department to another. Even now, I am one of a very small number of people in the world writing about this issue.

Also, economic researchers are not expected to study the history of the many smaller, more-localized civilizations that have collapsed in the past. Typically, the population of these smaller civilizations increased at the same time as the resources used by the population started to degrade. The use of technology, such as dams to redirect water flows, may have helped for a while, but eventually this was not enough. The combination of declining availability of high quality resources and increasing population tended to leave these civilizations with little margin for dealing with the bad times that can be expected to occur by chance. In many cases, such civilizations collapsed after disease epidemics, a military invasion, or a climate fluctuation that led to a series of crop failures.

[4] Many people have been confused by common misunderstandings regarding how an economy really works.

[a] Standard economics models foster the belief that the economy can continue to grow without a corresponding increase in energy supply.

When economic models are designed with labor and capital being the important inputs, energy supply doesn’t seem to be needed, at all.

[b] People seem to understand that legislation capping apartment rents will stop the building of new apartments, but they do not make the same connection with steps taken to hold down fossil fuel prices.

If efforts are made to bring down the prices of fossil fuels (such as raising interest rates and adding oil from the US petroleum reserves to increase total oil supply), we need to expect that extraction will be adversely affected. One article reports that Saudi Arabia does not seem to be using recent record profits to quickly raise reinvestment to the level that seemed to be required a few years ago. This suggests that Saudi Arabia needs prices that are quite a bit higher than $100 per barrel in order to take significant steps toward extracting the country’s remaining resources. This would seem to contradict published reserves that, in theory, take current prices into consideration.

Reuters reports that Venezuela has reneged on its promise to send more oil to Europe, under an oil for debt deal. It wants oil product swaps instead, since it is lacking in its ability to make finished products from its oil itself. It would take a long run of prices much higher than today’s level for Venezuela to be able to sufficiently invest in infrastructure to do such refining. Venezuela reports the highest oil reserves in the world (303.8 thousand million barrels), even higher than Saudi Arabia’s reported 297.5 thousand million barrels, but neither country can be counted on to take major steps to raise supply.

Similarly, there have been reports that US shale drillers are not investing to keep production growing, despite what seem to be sufficiently high prices. There are simply too many issues. The cost of new investment is very high, outside of the already drilled sweet spots. Also, there is no guarantee the price will stay high. There are also supply line issues, such as whether appropriate steel drilling pipes and fracking sand will be available, when needed.

[c] Published information suggests that there is a huge amount of fossil fuels remaining to be extracted, given today’s level of technology. If we assume that technology will get better and better, it is easy to believe that any fossil fuel limit is hundreds of years in the future.

The way the economy works, the extraction limit is really an affordability issue. If the cost of extraction rises too high, relative to what people around the world have for spendable income, production will stop because demand (in terms of what people can afford) will drop too low. People will tend to cut back on discretionary spending, such as vacation travel and meals in restaurants, cutting back on demand for fossil fuels.

[d] How “demand” works is poorly understood. Very often, researchers and the general public assume that demand for energy products will automatically remain high.

A surprisingly large share of demand is tied to the need for food, water, and basic services such as schools, roads, and bus service. Poor people require these basics just as much as rich people do. There are literally billions of poor people in the world. If the wages of poor people fall too low relative to the wages of rich people, the system cannot work. Poor people find that they must spend nearly all their income on food, water and housing. As a result, they have little left to pay taxes to support basic governmental services. Without adequate demand from poor people, the prices of commodities tend to fall too low to encourage reinvestment.

The majority of fossil fuel use is by commercial and industrial users. For example, natural gas is often used in making nitrogen fertilizer. If the price of natural gas is high, the price of fertilizer will rise higher than farmers are willing to pay for the fertilizer. Farmers will cut back on fertilizer use, reducing yields for their crops. The farmers’ own costs will be lower, but there will be less of the desired crops grown, perhaps indirectly raising overall food prices. This is not a connection that economic modelers build into their models.

The lockdowns of 2020 show that governments can indeed ramp up demand (and thus prices) for energy products by sending out checks to citizens. We are now seeing that the approach seems to produce inflation rather than more energy production. Also, countries without energy resources of their own may see their currencies fall with respect to the US dollar.

[e] It is not true that energy types can easily be substituted for one another.

In energy modeling, such as in calculating “Energy Return on Energy Invested,” a popular assumption is that all energy is substitutable for other energy. This isn’t true, unless a person accounts for all of the details of the transition, and the energy needed to make such a transition possible.

For example, intermittent electricity, such as that generated by wind turbines or solar panels, is not substitutable for load-following electricity. Such intermittent electricity is not always available when people need it. Some of this intermittency is very long-term. For example, wind-generated electricity may be low for more than a month at a time. In the case of solar energy, the problem tends to be storing up enough electricity during summer months for use in winter. A naive person might assume that adding a few hours of battery backup would fix intermittency problems, but such a fix turns out to be very inadequate.

If people are not to freeze in the dark in winter, longer-term solutions are needed. One standard approach is to use a fossil fuel system to fill in the gaps when wind and solar are not available. The catch, then, is that the fossil fuel system really needs to be a year-around system, with trained staffing, pipelines and adequate fuel storage. A modeler needs to consider the need to build a whole double system instead of a single system.

Because of intermittency issues, electricity from wind and solar only substitute for fuels (coal, natural gas, uranium) that operate our current system. Publications often talk about the cost of intermittent electricity being at “grid parity” when its temporary cost seems to match the cost of grid electricity, but this is matching “apples and oranges.” The cost comparison needs to be in comparison to the average cost of fuel for plants producing electricity, rather than to electricity prices.

Another popular assumption is that electricity can be substituted for liquid fuels. For example, in theory, every piece of farm equipment could be redesigned and rebuilt to be based on electricity, rather than diesel, which is typically used today. The catch is that there would need to be an enormous number of batteries built and eventually disposed of for this transition to work. There would need also need to be factories to build all this new equipment. We would need an international trade system operating extraordinarily well, to find all the raw materials. Likely, there would still not be enough raw materials to make the system work.

[f] There is a great deal of confusion about expected oil and other energy prices, as an economy reaches energy limits.

This issue is closely related to [4][d], with respect to the confusion about how energy demand works. A common assumption among analysts is that “of course” oil prices will rise, as limits are approached. This assumption is based on the standard supply and demand curve used by economists.

Figure 5. Standard economic supply and demand curve from Wikipedia. Description of how this curve works: The price P of a product is determined by a balance between production at each price (supply S) and the desires of those with purchasing power at each price (demand D). The diagram shows a positive shift in demand from D1 to D2, resulting in an increase in price (P) and quantity sold (Q) of the product.

The issue is that the availability of inexpensive energy products very much affects demand as well as supply. Jobs that pay well are only available if inexpensive energy products can leverage human labor. For example, surgeons today perform robotic surgery, requiring, at a minimum, a stable source of electricity for each operation. Furthermore, the equipment used in the surgery is created using fossil fuels. Surgeons also use anesthetic products that require fossil fuels. Without today’s fancy equipment, surgeons would not be able to charge nearly as much they do for their services.

Thus, it is not immediately obvious whether demand or supply would tend to fall faster, if energy supply should hit limits. We know that Revelation 18:11-13 in the Bible provides a list of a number of commodities, including humans sold as slaves, for which prices dropped very low at the time of the collapse of ancient Babylon. This suggests that at least sometimes during prior collapses, the problem was too low demand (and too low prices), rather than too low supply of energy products.

[5] The International Energy Agency and politicians around the world have recommended a transition to the use of wind and solar to try to prevent climate change for quite a few years. This approach seemed to have the approval of both those concerned about too much burning of fossil fuels causing climate change and those concerned about too little fossil fuel energy causing economic collapse.

A rough estimate of what the decline in energy supply might look like under the rapid shift to renewables proposed by politicians is shown in Figure 6.

Figure 6. Estimate by Gail Tverberg of World Energy Consumption from 1820 to 2050. Amounts for earliest years based on estimates in Vaclav Smil’s book Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospectsand BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy for the years 1965 to 2019. Energy consumption for 2020 is estimated to be 5% below that for 2019. Energy for years after 2020 is assumed to fall by 6.6% per year, so that the amount reaches a level similar to renewables only by 2050. Amounts shown include more use of local energy products (wood and animal dung) than BP includes.

If a person understands the connection between energy consumption and the economy, such a rapid drop in energy supply looks like something that would likely be associated with economic collapse. The goal of politicians seems to be to keep citizens from understanding how awful the situation really is by reframing the story of the decline in energy supply as something politicians and economists have chosen to do, to try to prevent climate change for the sake of future generations.

The rich and powerful can see this change as a good thing if they themselves can profit from it. When there is not enough energy, the physics of the situation tends to lead to increasing wage and wealth disparities. Wealthy individuals see this outcome as a good thing: They can perhaps personally profit. For example, Bill Gates has amassed about 270,000 acres of farmland in the United States, including newly purchased farmland in North Dakota.

Furthermore, politicians see that they can have more control over populations if they can direct citizens in a way that will use less energy. For example, bank accounts can be linked to some type of social credit score. Politicians will explain that this is for people’s own good–to prevent the spread of disease or to prevent undesirables from using too much of the available resources.

One way of dramatically reducing energy consumption is by mandating shutdowns in an area, purportedly to prevent the spread of Covid-19, as China has been doing recently. Such shutdowns can be explained as being needed to stop the spread of disease. These shutdowns can also help hide other problems, such as not having enough fuels to prevent rolling blackouts of electricity.

[6] We are living in a truly unusual time, with a major energy problem being hidden from view.

Politicians cannot tell the world how bad the energy situation really is. The problem with near-term energy limits has been known since at least 1956 (M. King Hubbert) and 1957 (Hyman Rickover). The problem was confirmed in the modeling performed for the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows and others.

Most high-level politicians are aware of the energy supply issue, but they cannot possibly talk about it. Instead, they choose to talk about what would happen if the economy were allowed to speed ahead without limits, and how bad the consequences of that might be.

Militaries around the world are no doubt well aware of the fact that there will not be enough energy supplies to go around. This means that the world will be in a contest for who gets how much. In a war-like setting, we should not be surprised if communications are carefully controlled. The views we can expect to hear loudly and repeatedly are the ones governments and influential individuals want ordinary citizens to hear.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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4,427 Responses to Why No Politician Is Willing to Tell Us the Real Energy Story

  1. Habeck: “Anyone got any LNG? What about some oil? Oh well, stuff this economy, anyway. Who even gives one!”

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Robert Habeck has several high offices in Germany. He doesn’t seem to care if German businesses close down. The country needs inexpensive natural gas. With high prices for natural gas, goods that Germany makes will be high priced. Germany would like more LNG from US or Qatar, but it isn’t really isn’t available. German government has no long-term plan for the government.

      Habeck seems to say, “I’ve saved the planet. The damage has been done now. We are on the green, sustainable path.” He has locked Germany in to losing fossil fuels. He is really a super-villain, or maybe the joker.

      Trust in the government is very high in Germany. Most people have not figured out how bad the situation is.

      • drb753 says:

        Here in Russia you can buy Stiehl chainsaws (60,000 rubles made in Germany) or the same chainsaw made in China (30,000 rubles). Obviously you do not want to skimp on something you use hundreds of hours a year, but the chinese ones (I have two) are pretty good.

  2. Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
    Gail Tverberg says:

    There is a new book coming out Tuesday that may be of interest, called Volt Rush: The Winners and Losers in the Race to Go Green.

    This is a happily ever after book that looks like it will be widely distributed. However, Mark Mills of the Manhattan Institute spins the book a different way in a WSJ book editorial:

    https://www.manhattan-institute.org/volt-rush-book-review-electric-vehicles-batteries-not-included
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/volt-rush-book-review-electric-vehicles-batteries-not-included-11662735818

    “Volt Rush’ Review: Electric Cars, Money and Mines
    How the push for green vehicles runs into battery-production blues.

    Despite its subtitle, “Volt Rush” is a delicious journey of discovery that focuses mainly on the winners—the people, companies and countries that profit from the current EV mania. Spoiler alert: The battery-money gusher is not flowing into, but out of, Europe and the U.S., with the largest share going to Chinese refineries and upstream from there to mines—some in China, and most in places as far ranging as the Congo, Chile and Indonesia, with many owned by China.

    “Volt Rush” isn’t about technology, other than a brief overview of the inventions making EVs possible. (There’s an obligatory chapter on recycling, with unpersuasive “could if” and “would if” ideas, and another on the fantasy of near-term ocean-floor mining.) Rather, in the tradition of true investigative reporting, Mr. Sanderson travels through jungles and to mines and factories in pursuit of what makes “Volt Rush” compelling: stories about the people who figured out where and how to build the mines, and the staggering wealth these people quietly accumulated as a result.

    “Volt Rush” lucidly traces the people and policies that led to China’s remarkable dominance in the global battery-materials ecosystem. (China, we note, has a larger market share in energy minerals than Saudi Arabia has in oil.)

    • the fundamental law of the battery is:

      you get less out than you put in.

      The fundamental law of the oilwell is:

      You get more out than you put in.

      We have a society that has functioned, until now, on the (surplus) production of oilwells.

      What we are now trying to do, is replace oil with batteries, (+plus the solar input). So it would seem that battery production, in terms of energy output must exceed that of oil.
      But the bottom line is, that the necessary materials to produce the batteries (let alone the energy from them) do not exist.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Good points!

      • Why to go Norman! Another Home Run!
        You and Davie another BAU Day keep me coming here.
        I agree with you the silly harping on the vaccine is just a side show that is inconsequential to the real crisis we 😈 face.
        Another co worker of mine kinda woke up to the jab.
        This guy is somewhat bright and plugged in to a lot of trends.
        We were listening to the news and they had a story about the new introduction to the latest booster. He flat out said NO MORE …had four of them and still got the Covid and was real sick….enough is enough….then he trailed off…maybe get a yearly vaccination🤪.

        At this point I hold my tongue and point out Im best with natural immunity and don’t have to be concerned about adverse reactions or effects of the experiment vaccines, which have occurred.

      • Oddys says:

        Very true. This is what it is all about.

    • Dennis L. says:

      Gail,

      Not sure of the details, the US has the minerals but refining them is very dirty hence the pollution was off shored in many cases.

      Could believe Chinese purchasing the mines, but need an extensive military to make it work.

      Ziehan is not optimistic regarding China, time will tell.

      Dennis L.

  3. Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
    Gail Tverberg says:

    From the WSJ: Global Drought Saps Hydropower, Complicating Clean-Energy Push Dry conditions in the U.S., Europe and China have raised questions about how hydropower fits into a changing energy mix

    The article mentions problems in Norway, among others:

    Norway is the region’s largest producer of hydroelectricity due to an abundance of rivers and deep valleys. The Norwegian government warned in early August that the country may have to limit electricity exports to the U.K., Germany, Sweden, Finland and Denmark, for the first time in history in the coming months.

    Statkraft AS, Norway’s largest producer of hydroelectric power, is limiting production now to conserve water for the higher-demand months ahead, said the utility’s chief executive officer, Christian Rynning-Tønnesen, in an interview.

  4. TIm Groves says:

    This lady sounds very clear, firm and earnest. She’s telling the German people that they should expect to suffer this coming winter in order that the country can continue playing geopolitical games. Supporting Ukraine is dearer to her heart than the German people not freezing or starving to death.

    But what if freezing or starving the German people to death—and the French, the Belgians, the Italians, the Dutch, the British and the Irish—is not a bug but feature? With the Ukraine War merely a pretext? And the apparent idiocy of the current political class in Europe a camouflage?

    Does the current situation make sense in those terms? The general feeling in Europe is that there is a train wreck in progress. But is this due to decades of incompetence, blindness and poor decisions by the continent’s leaders? Is it the result of a black swan event in the shape of the Russian invasion of Ukraine? Or does this ongoing train wreck have the hallmarks of a planned democide—the murder of people by a government which has power over them—implemented in a way that provides the perps with a degree of plausible deniability?

    I predict that when the dead bodies pile up too high to ignore or brush off, this lady and the rest of her kind are going to plead ignorance and they are going to claim that nobody could have foreseen this scale of catastrophe.

    • look back at any episode of history, at any level.

      nobody foresees ‘scale of catastrophe’

      everybody starts with ‘a good idea at the time’. Actual motives are many and various.
      Ask Napoleon, the Kaiser, Hitler. And many others.

      (the further backward you look, the further forward you can see—Winston Churchill)

      The Ukraine war was meant to be a short spring offensive, get it over with quickly. But now we face a European winter war. See above–ask Napoleon the Kaiser, Hitler.
      Hitler didn’t issue winter clothes to his army invading Russia. I wasn’t supposed to be necessary.
      His army froze to death in droves.

      All wars are about resource grabs. Across Europe right now, our (energy) resources are being shut off as part of that war.

      Incompetence? No. No one can become ‘competent’ in a situation they have not experienced.
      Which is?
      The collapse of cheap surplus energy availability. We thought European resource grabs were a thing of the past. Seems not

      Election to political office does not include a course in soothsaying. For some reason people think it does. This includes the ‘current political class’ or any previous one.

      20 or 50 years ago, say, do you really think that politicians could have said to we plebs—-“sorry, your (fossil) fuel use has got to be cut by 50%” ???—or an even better one “all wars are pointless, and we’d better start pulling together.”.

      • Oddys says:

        I’m with you almost all the way. But, what if the russian gas is just not there? This conflict try to pretend to be a classic war about resources, but in reality it is about COVERING UP the lack of resources.

        There is nothing that make people more upset and trigger violent denial more than the suggestion that fossil fuels are actually limited and will one day start to decline.

        It’s like an event horizon. There are absolutely no clues to what this new reality will look like – more than it will NOT look like anything we can anticipate with our current expectations on the future.

        • that may also be the case, that Russian gas isn’t there, or not enough of it for medium term future use.

          In which case Putin has to grab another energy resource, Ukrainian harvests.

          You are right in thinking wars (on one side) always cover up lack of resources (Japan vs America for instance)

          and the future certainly wont be what we keep telling each other it will be

          • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
            Gail Tverberg says:

            Russia is short of oil reserves. Its oil production is likely to be falling soon.

            It reports quite a bit of natural gas reserves, but most of them seem to be off the north coast of Russia, under the sea. I expect that they will be expensive (and difficult) to extract and ship. There probably is a long time-line involved as well.

            • few can face the fact that the world is running out of fossil fuels

              the conflicts and politicising and promises and excesses are merely blips on the chart of decline— (no chart is smooth)
              they will not change the outcome

        • Fast Eddy says:

          I suspect that is … correct….

          Peak… across the board… and running down quickly … including KSA…

          We be F789ed.

          Q4

          https://www.communication-jeunesse.qc.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/logo-crackboom-1272.jpg

      • Oddys says:

        You forget Charles XII! The great pioneer in freezing armies to death in Russia. Leaving with some 100k soldiers and coming home with a high-school marching band. The main result was a large number of human bones sticking out of snowpiles.

        It looks pretty much like a castrating event for all nations that try to attack Russia.

      • TIm Groves says:

        Norm: nobody foresees ‘scale of catastrophe’

        I’ve been banging on about precisely the current catastrophe for as the result of European countries abandoning coal and nuclear in favor of renewables on this site for almost a decade. But nobody listens to me. I’m nobody!

        Norm: The Ukraine war was meant to be a short spring offensive, get it over with quickly

        Whatever gave you this idea? Have you been talking privately with President Putin?

        According to Putin, Russia is helping the two Donbass Republics liberate themselves from Ukrainian rule. Most of the troops fighting on “allied side” on the frontlines have been militia and irregular forces. The Russian forces have played mostly a supporting role.

        The Russians call it a Special Military Occupation, not a war. They are deliberately conducting it in a protracted fashion and refusing to blast populated areas to rubble precisely in order to avoid civilian casualties. This is also the way they fought in Syria.

        If the fighting goes too badly for the Russians, they may up the tempo and change the strategy, but up to now they have proceeded slowly and deliberately, at a frustratingly plodding pace for people who have grown up on video games!

        • Xabier says:

          And while Ivan is plodding away, his enemies have instituted suicidal sanctions against him which may collapse their own economies quite rapidly.

          Not at all dumb to go rather slow, keeping one’s powder dry….

    • MM says:

      Habeck recently said:
      “The bakeries should just stop selling.”
      The idea the Europeans still have is that for the time being there is no energy delivery from Russia but when Russia signed the unconditional surrender energy will be flowing again.
      Unfortunately “we” do not have a time frame for that….

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Sometimes we get lost in the minutiae of what is happening …. the madness.. the mass murder and maiming ….

      So let me bring some clarity to the situation…. step back and look at it as a man from Mars might (if the man could get past the Belts and land on Earth…)…

      They’d examine this and remark – they are being exterminated. And the other Martians would nod their heads… and say — Yes — definitely exterminating … seems they have run out of cheap energy — and the dummies cannot live without it… fortunately a few of them have some sense and they’ve decided to pre-empt the mayhem…

    • drb753 says:

      I am getting impatient with these philorussian phonies, though Engdahl always struck me as balanced when I used to read him long ago. They all read from the same score, they completely ignore the energy angle and prefer manichaean worldviews, those who have websites censor like crazy, specially if you comment from Russia, if you listen to them China is still a powerful economy. All of them predicted a russian cakewalk in the war, how is that going? I think Orlov and smoothieX12 destroyed a hard won and initially deserved excellent reputation, and Saker became unhinged long ago. Escobar is openly a salaried guy. Only Eva Bartlett is quite honest, and only when talking in the living room of a friend.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This is a small part of the Engdahl article (first link)

      EU Gas Market Deregulated

      What the EU Commission and government ministers in Germany and across the EU are carefully hiding is the transformation they have created in how the natural gas price is determined today. For almost two decades the EU Commission, backed by the mega banks such as JP MorganChase or large speculative hedge funds, began to lay the basis for what is today a complete deregulation of the market for natural gas. It was promoted as the “liberalization” of the European Union’s natural gas market. What it now allows is for unregulated real-time free market trading to fix prices rather than long-term contracts.

      Beginning around 2010 the EU began to push a radical change in rules for pricing natural gas. Prior to that point most gas prices were set in fixed long-term contracts for pipeline delivery. The largest supplier, Russia’s Gazprom, provided gas to the EU, most especially to Germany, in long-term contracts pegged to the price of oil. Until the last several years almost no gas was imported by LNG ships. With a change in US laws to allow export of LNG from the huge shale gas production in 2016 US gas producers began a major expansion of LNG export terminal construction. The terminals take an average of 3 to 5 years to build. At the same time Poland, Holland and other EU countries began to build LNG import terminals to receive the LNG from abroad.

      Also

      German Highest Price Madness

      The deliberate energy and electricity price sabotage gets even more absurd. On August 28, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner, the sole cabinet member from the Liberal Party (FDP), revealed that under the opaque terms of the complex EU Electricity Market Reform measures, the producers of electricity from solar or wind automatically receive the same price for their “renewable” electricity they sell to the power companies for the grid as the highest cost, i.e. natural gas!

      Lindner called for an “urgent” change to the German energy law to decouple different markets. The fanatical Green Economics Minister Robert Habeck immediately replied that, “We are working hard to find a new market model,” but cautioning that the government must be mindful not to intervene too much: “We need functioning markets and, at the same time, we need to set the right rules so that positions in the market are not abused.”

      Habeck in fact is doing all possible to build the Green Agenda and eliminate gas and oil and nuclear, the only reliable energy sources at present. He refuses to consider re-opening three nuclear plants closed a year ago or to reconsider closing the remaining three in December.

      Regarding the second link, it says:

      Germany’s Energy Suicide: An Autopsy

      The EU has weaponized the supply of European energy on behalf of a financial racket, against the interests of European industry and consumers.

      When Green fanatic Robert Habeck, posing as Germany’s Economy Minister, said earlier this week “we should expect the worst” in terms of energy security, he conveniently forgot to spell out how the whole farce is a Made in Germany cum Made in Brussels crisis. . .

      As much as Wall Street in the past invented a “ paper oil” speculative market, this time they went for a speculative “paper gas” market.

      Engdahl details how “the EU Commission and their Green Deal agenda to ‘decarbonize’ the economy by 2050, eliminating oil, gas and coal fuels, provided the ideal trap that has led to the explosive spike in EU gas prices since 2021.”

      The creation of this “single” market control implied forcing illegal rule changes on Gazprom. In practice, Big Finance and Big Energy – which totally control anything that passes for “EU policy” in Brussels – invented a new pricing system parallel to the long-term, stable prices of Russian pipeline gas.

      By 2019, an avalanche of Eurocrat energy “ directives” by the EC – the only thing these people do – had established a totally deregulated gas market trading, setting the prices for natural gas in the EU even as Gazprom remained the largest supplier.

      As lots of virtual trading hubs in gas futures contracts started popping up across the EU, enter the Dutch TTF (Title Transfer Facility). By 2020 the TTF was established as the real EU gas benchmark.

      As Engdahl points out, “TTF is a virtual platform of trades in futures gas contracts between banks and other financial investors. Outside, of course, of any regulated exchange.

      So LNG prices soon started to be set by futures trades in the TTF hub, which crucially happens to be owned by the Dutch government – “the same government destroying its farms for a fraudulent nitrogen pollution claim.”

      By any means necessary Big Finance had to get rid of Gazprom as a reliable source to allow powerful financial interests behind the Green Deal racket to dominate the LNG market.

  5. Jan says:

    Has the reevaluation of the Pfizer study by Doshi already been posted by Eddy?

    Results: Pfizer and Moderna mRNA COVID-19 vaccines were associated with an increased risk of serious adverse events of special interest, with an absolute risk increase of 10.1 and 15.1 per 10,000 vaccinated over placebo baselines of 17.6 and 42.2 (95% CI -0.4 to 20.6 and -3.6 to 33.8), respectively. Combined, the mRNA vaccines were associated with an absolute risk increase of serious adverse events of special interest of 12.5 per 10,000 (95% CI 2.1 to 22.9). The excess risk of serious adverse events of special interest surpassed the risk reduction for COVID-19 hospitalization relative to the placebo group in both Pfizer and Moderna trials (2.3 and 6.4 per 10,000 participants, respectively).

    Discussion: The excess risk of serious adverse events found in our study points to the need for formal harm-benefit analyses, particularly those that are stratified according to risk of serious COVID-19 outcomes such as hospitalization or death.

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4125239

    • Student says:

      from the final part of the research:
      “The results show an excess risk of serious AESIs (Serious adverse events of special interest) greater than the reduction in COVID-19 hospitalizations in both Pfizer and Moderna trials.
      These results are compatible with a recent preprint analysis of COVID-19 […] It would also be essential to compare long-term outcomes of vaccinated and unvaccinated groups, e.g., for symptoms identified with “long covid.[…] Finally, we emphasize that the elevated risk of serious AESIs in the vaccine group represents an average across the group.[…]
      Full transparency of the COVID-19 vaccine clinical trial data is needed to properly evaluate these questions. Unfortunately, well over a year after widespread use of COVID-19 vaccines, participant level data remain inaccessible…..”

  6. Fast Eddy says:

    Rumble (https://rumble.com/v1iz4zd-dr.-joseph-mercola-interviews-edward-dowd-global-financial-collapse-is-a-ma.html)

    Dr. Joseph Mercola Interviews Edward Dowd: Global Financial Collapse Is A ‘Mathematical Certainty’

    Ex-BlackRock Manager: Global Financial Collapse a ‘Mathematical Certainty’ In an interview with Dr. Joseph Mercola, Edward Do

  7. I AM THE MOB says:

    I got an idea on how to solve Europe’s upcoming Energy nightmare.

    *trigger warning

    They could mandate multiple families sharing one home. This would help split the cost of the eye-popping bills.

    Also, they could avoid black outs and rationing since demand would drop from the vacant homes left behind. And the demand drop would stabilize the energy prices and save their industry/economy/jobs from collapse.

    Push everyone as close as possible and put as many people into homes as possible.

    May not be idle, but it would offer security of stable power, food, water, and employment.

    • Xabier says:

      How very Totalitarian, how very WEF!

      How about people just advertise rooms to let? As they always did to make ends meet.

      No state- coercion necessary; and one could choose decent lodgers rather than having any Tom, Dick or Harriet imposed on one.

      People whom no one fancied as lodgers (bad manners, shifty eyes, monkey-pox, etc) would then freeze to death, and society would be vastly improved as a result! I was going to add tattoos and piercings, but some quite nice, honest, people have those, even if their taste is suspect.

      This would be just like hunter-gatherers ejecting those who don’t fit in.

      Your solution is Moscow, 1920……

    • drb753 says:

      This would be best done in an harmonious, cohesive country like the US.

    • Ed says:

      Would help energy not sure it helps food, water, employment.

  8. postkey
    postkey says:

    “What the sheep see is slightly different. First of all, they will never buy the genocide angle unless they have to wade through dead bodies, literally, to get to the store to buy some eggs (which won’t be there because all those responsible for eggs on the shelves are also dead).”
    https://off-guardian.org/2022/09/10/dangerous-not-so-much/

  9. I AM THE MOB says:

    See Jackson, MS? Water taps are pouring shi** brown water.

    Perhaps maybe another country somewhere in the world could help?

    (don’t worry, I’ll let myself out)

    🙂

  10. postkey
    postkey says:

    ‘Food Banks All Over The U.S. Are “Overwhelmed” As The Cost Of Living Pushes More People Into Poverty’?
    http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/food-banks-all-over-the-u-s-are-overwhelmed-as-the-cost-of-living-pushes-more-people-into-poverty/

    • Kowalainen says:

      Taking their automobile to the food bank…
      The mind boggles…
      🤔

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        It strikes me as strange, too. Around here, the only way to get to food banks is to drive. We don’t have public transport in the suburbs of Atlanta.

        When I helped hand out food for one of these groups, I couldn’t believe the many big vehicles I saw. Once people have paid for a vehicle and its upkeep (plus a cell phone), they cannot afford anything else–an apartment or food.

        Homeless college students are a big problem, I understand. They would like to sleep on sofas in buildings, if they can somehow stay in buildings at night. There are people of all ages living in tents in the forests around here. Also, in vehicles and in “pay by the week” hotels that have little refrigerators in the room.

        • Kowalainen says:

          I guess “we” don’t have similar taboos with regards to petrol? Imagine the queue if it was free gasoline handed out instead of food.

          In essence it is the same energy, different delivery method.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Did you know that some colleges are inviting reps of ‘dating sites’ onto campus to explain how they monetize their poonanies to pay tuition? Yep – I saw that on Tommy Robinson… I think I posted a link.

          It makes sense from the perspective of the college — they need paying customers.

          We are going downhill fast.

        • all part of the corner we have painted ourselves into.

          300/400 years ago, energy input-output in the human race balanced itself out. We didn’t expect much from life, because life itself didn’t have much to give.
          most of us worked until we died.

          oil changed all that.

          oil provided luxury that became ‘entitlement’.

          A symptom of that is driving an SUV to a foodbank–everyone recognises it as crazy. But it was cheap oil that allowed the SUV driver to live 10/20m from the foodbank in the first place.

          He can’t ‘walk’ to the foodbank, because he can’t carry enough food home to make the journey energy-effective.

          the endgame of course will be that foodbanks cease to function, and recipients drop off the food-radar. –ie starve, through lack of food-energy, or petrol-energy, or both.

          The world we have created cannot support what we have become.

          Between then and now is going to be messy.

  11. I AM THE MOB says:

    Sex workers say Wells Fargo shut their bank accounts: ‘Destroying our livelihoods’

    https://nypost.com/2022/09/06/sex-workers-say-wells-fargo-shut-their-bank-accounts/

    *breaking the ice for upcoming “bail-ins” perhaps?

  12. Fast Eddy says:

    hahahaha … thank you for this Tommy – watch the vax injury live!
    https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/39398

    • CTG says:

      This Indian lady collapsing while someone uses a camera phone to take the video – unless it is a recorded version, I am always suspicious that why would someone take a video of something unless it is expected to happen. No one will just take out a phone and start recording something unless you know something is going to happen.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        My daughter keeps a cell phone always handy to record any cute thing that her 7-month son (my grandson) might do. She tells me that this is how she is able to make videos of cute things he does, with essentially zero preparation.

        I am sure that there are other people who operate in “Have cell phone, will start a video almost instantaneously mode.” They know that they can start their recording within one second, if they have the phone readily accessible and they know the right settings to use.

        • CTG says:

          Yes I agree if the cell phone is ready to take “cute things” and the “cute things” were probably 1sec into the video. The lady that fell over, it was like 20 secs after the video started. I think it is probably that someone repeat the video and recorded it

    • I AM THE MOB says:

      West Ottawa basketball coach collapses on court, many jump into action to save his life

      https://www.fox17online.com/news/local-news/west-ottawa-basketball-coach-collapses-on-court-many-jump-into-action-to-save-his-life

      That was at local high school near me. I remember seeing it on the news like “holy shit”.

  13. Fast Eddy says:

    norm — get the popcorn ready!

    https://thepiratebay0.org/torrent/62181620/My_Son_Hunter_1080_(_2022)

    Fast Eddy’s gonna watch that later tonight hahaha

    • Vern Baker says:

      Its painful at first. I nearly turned it off. But, they painted Biden as actually, a really caring father figure, and not so much as an imbecile. Eventually, they pose some interesting questions. For instance, if you accidentally became friends with someone you had no idea they were powerful, would the average person immediately align politics and morals in order to benefit?

      It definitely has its moments. All in all, its worth a watch. Cringy and almost a juvenile production, and tries a “Big Short” style forth wall breaks to talk directly to the audience.

  14. Fast Eddy says:

    It’s Clear: “This Was All Planned”

    Dr. Peter McCullough: (http://t.me/petermcculloughmd) “It takes a long time to write a patent … When the crisis was announced in the United States, three days later, Moderna announced they have a product! How can they have a product in three days? You can’t invent something in three days. This was planned!”

    Rumble (https://rumble.com/v1j7pwo-its-clear-this-was-all-planned.html)

  15. Fast Eddy says:

    Until now, such scenes like this only happened in other countries: People who visit a doctor’s office are sent home due to capacity reasons or have to wait for hours. This week, sick people were faced with closed doors at the Permanence-Practice on the Marktplatz in Oerlikon. A notice said: “Due to high workload, we are unfortunately unable to accept any more patients today.”

    This is by no means an isolated case in Switzerland. Axel Rowedder, specialist for internal medicine and head of the Medix clinics in Basel and Pratteln, has also had to briefly close his walk-in practices a few times this summer. “The congestion in the outpatient sector is massive. In Pratteln or at the Basel train station we have waiting times of up to four hours, sometimes even longer” …

    Why are so many people suddenly ill? Where are all the patients coming from? “If we only knew,” says [Esther] Wiesendanger [another clinic administrator]. “I have the feeling that more people are sick and also more often.” But she won’t speculate on the reasons. Since March, the pressure has increased noticeably. About a third of the patients currently visit the practice because of Covid and other respiratory symptoms, in addition to sprains, cuts, wasp stings, back pain, bladder infections, gastrointestinal diseases and much more.

    At the Biel hospital centre, the emergency ward has also been pushed to its limits for weeks. “We have no idea where all these patients are suddenly coming from,” says hospital director Kristian Schneider … Nothing stands out in the reasons for admission. “It’s possible that these are still after-effects of the pandemic,” says Schneider.

    A great deal of research that shows that after a Covid infection, the risk of developing multiple sequelae and complications is increased – for months. There are also isolated studies showing that a Corona infection can permanently weaken the immune system.

    https://www.eugyppius.com/p/sustained-as-yet-unheard-of-excess

    That’s odd… same thing in NZ — norm – what can be causing this?

    • CTG says:

      I should expand my previous comment…

      1. The cold weather in northern hemisphere will be very challenging for those who are jabbed. It can be life-threatening as well.

      2. Without any heating, it will be orders of magnitude worse.

      3. With super high energy bills, I am not sure if hospitals can function.

      4. Will there be enough hospital supplies or medicine due to (1) transportation not working well due to lack to fuel or people (2) the required workers like nurse, transportation drivers or doctors are dying (3) it is just too many people being sick and totally overwhelming the healthcare system

      5. With so many sick, cold and almost dead and with high energy bills or non-existent energy, will the whole economy work like in delivery of flour, water supplies, electric supplies, banking services or even irrelevant retail like Louis Vuitton bags or high fashion (which does provide work for normal people although there be no purchasers)

      6. If people are sick, frozen or not working, will there be any incentives or money for people to pay any form of bank loans? What happens to the bank? This is not like China where they can force people to do things or massive bailout for the banks without anyone knowing it.

      7. The local government, can they function without tax or if there is a loss of numbers.

      8. Will there be panic if the number of people overwhelming the healthcare system or dying cause panic which will only make matters worse?

      9. The drop in diesel supply in USA was not mentioned at all until John Kemp pointed out. So, how many other things that we are suppose to “know” but not knowing?

      10. The financial system is already in critical stage. ZH has a premium article behind paywall that states that a credit event has already happened.

      What if the collapse of financial system coincides with cold weather (maybe a large drop in temperature), the implosion of healthcare services, broken supply chain due to lack of fuel or drivers and the increase in dead people?

      Will be interesting to see how things turn out….

      2022 is definitely different from 2008. It can be seen or felt by many people to be much worse off. Perhaps the peak of total fuel extraction was in 2008 but with the help of debts, it manage to climb higher but with debts losing its effectiveness, it cracks rapidly.

      By the way, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on 15th September 2008. 5 more days. Happy Birthday!

    • the woketard Demoncrat plan to drain the SPR is ending in a few weeks.

      the Russian SMO which has essentially ignored the blusterring buffooons in the West, has emboldened much of the world to stop bowing down to the bullly USA spsyychos, and the emboldened ones include OPEC countries.

      OPEC, especially Saudi Arabia, is finally throwing off the shackles of the Empire of Lies, and I sense that they will do what they want to do going forward.

      they have a strong ally in Russia.

      OPEC wants $100+ oil.

      they have ignored the pathhetic whhining of the old geeeezer weakling corrrupt sunsettting Bidet, and will cut production whenever they want to.

      plus, it’s very likely that OPEC can’t increase production even if they wanted to, which they don’t want to, anyway.

      I don’t see any reasons for oil prices to plunge like they did in 2008.

      global recession/depression?

      sure, that’s probable.

      as it happens, OPEC likely will cut production even more.

      I might be wrong, time will tell.

      cheap enough energy tonight, baby!

      • CTG says:

        I think Davidinabillion years will love this.

        https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy/status/1568285479610499074?s=20&t=4IowIZpxRO3n17pHvGuAbw

        U.S. DIESEL STOCKS are critically low after failing to recover during the summer:

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Stocks need to be higher at this time of year because there are still a few people and businesses in the US Northeast that heat their homes with diesel in winter. Natural gas has not been extended to parts of that area, so that is not an option.

          Also, diesel is used to run backup electricity generation, if natural gas supplies are inadequate. This can especially be a problem in the US Northeast, because pipeline capacities can be too low during cold spells in parts of the US. This happens because pipeline capacity are not high enough to cover both the ramp up in natural gas needed to simultaneously heat homes/businesss and to power more electricity production to heat homes/businesses.

  16. Fast Eddy says:

    Sustained, as-yet unheard of excess mortality trend strikes Switzerland
    Neither heat waves nor Corona mortality are sufficient to explain the excess deaths, which are concentrated in the 65+ age bracket.

    https://www.eugyppius.com/p/sustained-as-yet-unheard-of-excess

    https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb30bb083-ab29-4683-a480-fbdb38b52a51_842x651.png

    norm – this is your group

  17. Fast Eddy says:

    You ask why doctors are silent. The electronic medical records (EMRs) are a ball and chain to physicians. We are tracked through them. When I wrote a prescription for Ivermectin for a patient, with informed consent (she was vaccinated), I received 5 letters threatening my medical license, my hospital privileges, and my insurance contracts.

    I would not have received 5 letters if I killed someone in negligence or malpractice. If I have my license pulled, I will no longer be able to help my patients.

    https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/why-doctors-arent-speaking-out

    Wow – norm – do you find this strange?

  18. Fast Eddy says:

    Cheena !!! https://2ndsmartestguyintheworld.substack.com/p/coming-to-your-nation-soon-what-happens

    Why doctors aren’t speaking out

    Written by a doctor. Everyone should read this. We are headed for a perfect storm with escalating health needs and a shortage of doctors because of how we treat them.

    https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/why-doctors-arent-speaking-out

    • Hubbs says:

      State Medical Boards (SMB) here in the US are comprised almost entirely of doctors who are appointed by the state Ggovernors- political approval required. State Medical Boards are rogue agencies, just like the CIA, DOJ, FED, NSA, etc.
      These appointed SMB doctors are concentrated in fields like public health, presidents of the state medical schools, dermatologists, allergists, psychiatrists- all those specialties who have no significant patient contact in the hospital setting, whether in the ICU or the operating room. These SMB doctors will sell out their own colleagues in a heart beat- just as politcians have given away our country. Many doctors are spineless, motivated by Schadenfreunde through their insecurity, and money hungry. Many are closet sociopaths who have given away the medical profession for personal gain and greed. One expects lawyers to be slime and they have their judicial-legal collective well insulated from any recourse by the public. But doctors have one advantage over lawyers and that is being able to exploit their former “wholesome” image to deceive their patients who had until now been conditioned to trust doctors. No more. From a blackballed former surgeon thrown under the bus year ago by the KY Medical Board , I approve this message.

    • Student says:

      They know Kung-Fu and they need three men to beat an old woman.
      Bruce Lee is rolling over in his grave.
      Without mentioning any presence of chivalrous kindness.
      It really sucks. (I hope it is not an unpolite expression, I meant: è uno schifo)
      🙂

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Just wait till the snipers are on shoot to kill orders during Global Holodomor … you step off the porch with intent to get that plump child up the street .. and you go down so fast you don’t even know what hit you.

        It’s a pretty good death though – instant

  19. http://thesaker.is/some-very-basic-stuff-about-russian-defenses-in-the-smo/

    one basic idea is that land that is lost can be regained, but a dead soldier is lost forever.

    the “successful” Ukrainian offensive has gained them perhaps 20 miles out of 1,800 miles of battle lines.

    a temporary gain.

    meanwhile their dead soldiers are estimated as 10X as much as Russians.

    another basic idea is that this outtrageous and obviously stooooopid “offensive” strategy is because the Ukrainian puppets are controlled by psyycho USA/NATZO woketards who don’t care one iota about how much Ukrainian blood is spilled.

    these views sound reasonable now and as the SMO progresses, the reasonableness should be confirmed.

    • Tim Groves says:

      The Military Summary Channel guy agrees with you.

      He admits to panicking a bit in his previous video. He says a lot of his Russian sources were panicking. But after watching how things have been unfolding and using his expertise to analyze the situation, he now feels that the situation is very favorable to the Russians and that the Ukrainians have “given them a present” by advancing so far and placing up to 10,000 soldiers into what looks likely to develop into a cauldron in the next few days. Also, the Ukrainian forces have suffered 2,000 dead in the last two days.

      Anyway, it is going to be an exciting week for those of us who have the luxury of being spectators, and a hellish one for the boys on both sides, but particularly for the Ukrainians who have to fight this out without the benefit of air cover or artillery support.

      He’s calling this the final battle for the Donbas.

      https://rumble.com/v1jehp5-ukraine.-military-summary-and-analysis-09.09.2022.html

      • fromoasa says:

        So, as apartment blocks get zapped and the civilians and kiddies in them get crushed and killed, or at the very least made homeless, even our gentle Tim succumbs to the “war as disaster po – rn ” entertainment. Poor Ukies. Poor civilians. Poor Russkies. Poor military. They died for our entertainment. But ultimately it is all sound and fury, signifying nothing. 🙁

        Faces On TV // Love / Dead

        • Tim Groves says:

          even our gentle Tim succumbs to the “war as disaster po – rn ”

          No, I hope not.

          “it is going to be an exciting week for those of us who have the luxury of being spectators, and a hellish one for the boys on both sides, but particularly for the Ukrainians who have to fight this out without the benefit of air cover or artillery support.”

          The first phrase above sentence was absolutely intended to be sarcastic. I was getting a dig in at very people who you and I both feel have succumbed to “the war as disaster porn”.

          The fact is, if we are not there and our families, friends and neighbors are not there, then we have the luxury of not having that particular dog in the fight, so to speak. People who are involved understandably get excited and anxious over the fate of their nearest and dearest.

          But if our relation to the fighting is more distant, then our enthusiasm says more about us personally than it does about the side we are cheering for.

          Shakyamuni Buddha is reported to have regarded living beings as his children. Jesus Christ regarded everybody as his neighbor. I think this sentiment is commendable when considering other people who are not particularly close to us. Wishing harm on them or reveling in their pain or suffering or cheering as they are blown to pieces is not something I could condone.

          Ideally, the only appropriate response we spectators should show towards those who are suffering and dying in war should be compassionate.

          On the other hand, it is also not inappropriate and not unforgivable or soul-damning to hope for a kingsize portion of karma to hit the Bankers, Neocons and Oligarchs who have been planning and orchestrating the entire Ukrainian fiasco for the past decade or so. I personally would cheer that.

          • fromoasa says:

            Thank you for that expo, Timwald. Just occasionally – but not often – I have a tin ear for sarking chasms.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            It sucks when you have to be involved in a ‘war’ for the purpose of making the MOREONS believe their insane energy bills are temporary… but them is the breaks… nobody really cares about Ukey anyway.. and remember – WE (yes we) murdered 500k kids in Iraq to ensure Saddam did not f789 about with OUR oil (for our SUVs…)

            So who cares about a few hundred or whatever Ukeys… so long as the Hot Fit ones get out via the dating app. The rest — well … as usual f789 em…

            Me? I’m spending my limited compassion on the animals who are this second being experimented on — and the animals in the gulag… I don’t have time for the Ukeys.

            + we’ll all be dead soon… so tempest in a teapot this Ukey thing

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Of course you have to kill a few people to convince the MOREONS that this is a war… what does it matter – we’re killing babies with injections now … everyone will be dead soon …

          If we need a ‘war’ to buy time for UEP to complete – so be it. There’s nothing worth fighting over at this point is there.

      • Yes, I immediately saw the panic as panic, which is something that people do, especially if it starts going around. Reporters cum ‘armchair generals’ on the ground seem to have started it. In wars, you have sit back and see how things develop before you can understand the significance of ‘moves’. People who scream ‘fire’ as soon as one side makes a move are just a part of the show.

  20. Adonis says:

    Prince Charles is part of the great reset crowd and stated he would do things differently if he was king think sustainability as recycling is his passion so maybe England is about to be the poster child for sustainability with green mad Charles at the helm.

  21. Hubbs says:

    Jason Burack from Wall Street for Mainstream interviews Josh Young of Bison Interests.
    Basically, says Saudis can’t increase production, ie., no spare capacity.
    Suggests that we are in effect reaching or have arrived at world oil production limits due to multiple factors like labor costs, steel pipe casing shortages, logistics supply chain disruptions, increased costs of oil service companies like Schlumberger, etc., Does not specifically address the issues of lower rates of discovery, deeper wells etc. They need to herd all these cats together to get back onto the former trajectory which may be a thing of the past.
    @ 28:15
    Natural gas has lower operating costs to produce, but traditional oil still perhaps more profitable for traditional legacy wells. (for now) Says water infusion for shale not that costly. Hard to believe. I got more confused as the interview went on.

    Gets to the nitty gritty @14:00

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      (Notes on later part only.)

      Servicing companies are seeing their costs rise. Schlumberger reported negative cash flows. Needs to keep raising their prices for oil field services.

      Natural gas prices were terribly depressed in past years. Higher prices in North America now don’t necessarily get to a high profit level.

      Shale companies are doing sort of OK now. [But more equivalent acres to drill are not really available. Lower quality wells.] Expects not much additional new supply in next 6 to 12 months.

      Expects Russian oil production will be down 1 million barrels per day from what it was before the war began.

      Doesn’t expect oil prices to soar to $140 barrel. Doesn’t expect dividends to to skyrocket. Mostly not paying large dividends. Should be using their cashflow to buy assets that seem to be trading at low cash flow multiple.

      Oil companies often have to cut dividends, if they are aggressive about the dividends that they give out. Smaller cap companies tend to pay lower dividends.

      Pension funds looking for the higher dividend yield companies, like oil and gas companies. But these high dividends handicap the company.

      Smaller investors tend to follow what Warren Buffet does. Analyst doesn’t think much of Buffet’s recent Oxy increase in share holdings.

      Thinks that there are great opportunities in oil and gas investing.

  22. Fast Eddy says:

    ‘Died Suddenly News’ Founder Says the Group is One of the Fastest Growing Ever on Facebook

    “Right now I’m averaging roughly 15-17,000 [new members] per day”

    Clip: https://rumble.com/v1jd07s-died-suddenly-news-founder-says-the-group-is-one-of-the-fastest-growing-eve.html

    Full Episode: https://odysee.com/@VSRF:d/VSRF-Webinar-EP-46_090822_Final_Odysee:2

    Powered by Coal hahaha https://t.me/chiefnerd/4895

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Last item is EV charging station with a “powered by coal” sign on it.

  23. Fast Eddy says:

    Can you feel it coming … Global Holodomor (UEP)… they are preparing for when cheap energy hits the tipping point and drastic action is required…. both in terms of reducing the burn big time + locking us down hard… for the Extermination.

    The same slick slogans are being carted out. In Switzerland they are using the slogan “Energy is scarce, let’s not waste it”. Swiss citizens are being advised to have showers instead of baths, put a lid on saucepans whilst boiling water and turn down the heat in their houses.

    Germany are capping the temperature of public offices at 19C (66F), shops must keep doors closed, lights must be switched off at night and swimming pools will open unheated. France must also keep their shop doors shut or risk being fined €750. Switzerland are considering fines and even jail time for heating rooms above 19C (66F).

    Whilst in public, the UK is saying there will be no energy rationing, in private ministers are drawing up Covid style information campaigns. More nudging incoming, designed by your favourite behavioural insights team. As with other European countries, the information campaigns will encourage people to turn their thermostats down amongst other things.

    The National Grid in the UK is running two simulations on 13-14 September and 4-5 October to evaluate how to deal with an emergency gas shortage. Leaked documents have already shown that a worst case scenario of four days without power is being planned for.

    Shutting down the global economy over the last two years and turning on the money printers suddenly doesn’t seem such a good idea. But it’s ok, our leaders who shut down the economy and turned on the money printers have a plan…shut down the global economy and turn on the money printers again.

    https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/dark-winter-energy-lockdowns-and

    • 4 billion gallons of oil flow through the economy every day.

      energy is not as cheap as it was, but is still “cheap enough”.

      cheap enough energy tonight, baby!

      Dark Winter?

      the Russians say that they will have food and heat and light all through the winter.

      oh, you mean Europe, led by the Elitard Eurotards in Brussels.

      due to their Russophobic spsychossis, millions of Europeans will be in misery this winter.

      note: widespread misery, but probably very little excess death due to malnutrition, lack of heating etc.

      that’s a way off.

      using algebra and calculus, I have spotted a massive spike in death rates coming in the 2030s, but not before.

      I hear misery loves company.

  24. MM says:

    You ever think you own the world?
    You better think again.

  25. Fast Eddy says:

    What’s causing the deaths?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Why are more people dying now in the UK? An interview with an actuary looking at the death data. Some people think the vaccines are the problem; some people think it must be something else.

      Omicron provided fewer deaths than normal flu deaths, early in the year. Deaths were below expected.

      But let’s look at the last 10 weeks. Table of highest causes that are showing up disproportionately. Heart Failure is up 20%. Other Heart Disease is up 10+%. Also cerebrovascular conditions. Circulatory diseases. In other words, cardiovascular deaths are significantly up.

      No material uptick in cancer deaths. [Sounds like US!]

      Cardiovascular problems could follow a Covid infection, or could follow the vaccine. Deaths coming across the adult age sectors. Early on, the elevation was at the earlier ages. Now, elevated deaths are spread across age groups. Actuary is not convinced that the problem is the vaccines. He thinks people have gone overboard in this direction. Actuary seems to be quite pro-vaccine.

      Another possibility is that now patients are not being seen in the hospital, because of staffing issues and backlogs. This may be part of the problem.

  26. Fast Eddy says:

    Deaths of Young and Middle-Aged American Adults were up to DOUBLE the Expected Rate Last Summer

    Report from Analysis of Life Insurance Data

    25 to 34 year-old deaths up 78%

    35 to 44 year-old deaths up 100%

    45 to 54 year-old deaths up 80%

    55 to 64 year-old deaths up 53%

    https://metatron.substack.com/p/deaths-of-young-and-middle-aged-american

    SADS? It’s a new terminal illness… you just die.. kinda like spontaneous combustion but without the fire.

  27. Fast Eddy says:

    8 minute mark – reject all vaccines – this is a bigger scam than the moon bs

    https://www.onenewspage.com/video/20220909/14893837/Del-Bigtree-Dr-Drew-Dr-Paul-Thomas-amp.htm

  28. Fast Eddy says:

    Disease skyrockets in vaccinated children compared to unvaccinated children

    We studied every single baby born to my doctors office over a 10 year period. The results were staggering

    Dr.Paul Thomas;
    We stratified the children according to how many vaccines they’d received.
    The data was clear:-
    The more vaccines a child received the worse their health; chronic illness, asthma, ADHD, neurological issues, allergies etc etc
    The unvaccinated children did not get sick.

    This data is so powerful that within 5 days of this being published online they took my medical license away as I was a threat to public health

    Because we insist on informed consent we had a growing number of parents refusing to vaccinate their children

    WATCH HERE (https://rumble.com/v1j8cmt-episode-284-the-fine-line.html?mref=6zof&mrefc=2)

    REJECT ALL VACCINES.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This doesn’t;t sound good!

    • Rodster says:

      He’s not the only one saying this. Dr. Elizabeth Eads in Florida has been treating patient with numerous illnesses after they got vaxed.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I’m glad I don’t live in the UK. But I am sure that the problem will spread to many areas of the world at one time.

      • Personally I am happiest with my shirt off on a chill day. Then one is there. A happy constitution. I am not sure that England ever gets cold enough that one actually needs to wear a shirt. The body likes to breath a fresh air.

      • Student says:

        10 years ago there was a nice tv series in UK called ‘it is not easy being green’.
        The episodes taught people how to try to live without fossil fuels.
        The tv series was then deleted in coincidence with the rise of the shale oil ‘success’ in US and it is now almost impossible to find it on internet.
        Although now it is too late to start, the episodes contain very interesting suggestions on how to try to live in the situation that we are about to face all.

        This is just an episode.

  29. Dear Gail,
    A few figures from a small plastics business in my local town in sw Ireland, gas prices up by a factor of 10, electricity up by a factor of 3.5, plastic pellets by 3, water bill up, insurance up, labour costs and on and on. This is a 40 year old family business and they are not alone. Local fresh dairy has lost 2 million euros already this year, costs up 30+ per cent. Supermarkets upped prices but passed little back to processor. I think your theme on the economy needed cheap energy is now playing out, manufacturing costs skyrocketing, but they are unable to pass on increases to buyers. Demand destruction and a economic depression or worse seems on the cards. We just do not want to hear that the sums do not add up.
    Thanks for hosting this blog. Despite everything life goes on for but people are very confused by constant media fueled crises. People can feel something is wrong.
    Noel

    • houtskool says:

      Hi Noel.

      Fiat currencies only work in growth. In de-growth, they cause all kind of problems.

      Did you think 7 or 40 times levered stock trades would bring us happyness forever?

      Ever increasing debt turning into a pyramid scheme nobody saw because they were too busy consuming apple pie in mid winter outside under cheap Russian gas fueled terras lighters?

      Mosques built in your backyard, paid for with your future pension ‘money’? So called diversity dollars? Or pounding as you call it.

      Did you really think watching BBC would inform you?

      Have you ever been into the woods? Looking up to the oak? Or did you end up scratching your feet?

      Where have you been?

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Degrowth is a new experience to us all. All of the debt build up, and all of the highly levered stocks only make sense in growth. Once debt defaults start, it is hard to see how financial systems stay together.

        I suppose leaders will turn toward more and more money printing/debt to try to cover up the mess we are in. But this can only end up in collapse, at some point.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Yes they do but they believe it’s all because of the Ukey war therefore temporary .. so they are willing to some hard yards knowing that there is light at the end of the tunnel… the light is actually a fully loaded freight train coming full speed towards them… but they don’t know that.

      The Ukey war is an outstanding war… we should refer to it as The Scapegoat War.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Thanks for you vote of confidence! Economic modelers have always seemed to expect that high prices would be no problem. Of course, they didn’t understand how the system works.

  30. fromoasa says:

    Gail is repeatedly saying that over-75s are safer getting the jab than not. My researchers tell me she’s around that age herself. So what’s your thinking, Gail?

    Come the depopulation event, you could be in line for the elixir of youth and then act out your favorite film high up on those empty hills. 😉

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I am staying away from the vaccine. By the way, JHK says that the new boosters are only for those who have been previously vaccinated. I have not been.

      • fromoasa says:

        Good for you, Gail.

        That Sound of Music clip above looks like it was filmed in Kentucky! Kinda strange how the children in that film all have regular voices but the adults all speak British.

        There are some awesome and some real schmaltzy parts in that uneven film. Here we see two young lovers, one a Hitler Youth, who will soon end up separated on different sides of the war. Who would’ve guessed that it would have resonance in our own times, over in the current European war, and that Nazis would supposedly be topical once more?

    • MM says:

      A vaccine preventing premature death is only important for people that see death as premature in the sense that they are not mature.

    • Hubbs says:

      Damn! I can’t find that rountable talk Gonzalo Lira (love him or hate him)had with Dr Malone MD, MPH, cardiologist, and one other individual earlier this week- I think on Tuesday or Wednesday. Was it censored? Did Dr Malone retract it himself?I even forgot which platform it was on. (Quite frankly I was surprised that Dr Malone had agreed to appear on Gonzalo’s site.)
      Dr Malone obviously had a cold, and left as previously arranged after an hour to make rounds at the hospital.
      Gonzalo smoking like a chimney now.

      The big take away in that interview:

      Dr Malone made reference to whether people were acutally getting the “hot lots” (or was it hot shots?) of these vaccines which require meticulous storage (presumably refrigeration) and quick transport before they lose their “efficacy.” It appears that the deleterious effects from these injections, both acute and chronic, are clustered in certain groups/locations.

      Of course, the big pharma makes money regardless whether the injections are hot or duds. And since the injections don’t prevent COVID transmission or infection, and the mortality from COVID in the unvaccinated is so low, this difference in outcomes, i.e., whether getting the dud vs being one of the unvaccinated control group, will not manifest.

      I am very isolated with few contacts so I don’t have any anecdotal experience with any of these adverse affects, or even accounts from others locally of any huge “die off” or adverse effects- from either end of the state in NC – the mountains or the coast.

      So I am aware, alert, but not convinced yet, but I and my daughter have both had COVID in 2020, and will remain unvaccinated. Both brothers in Detroit were double vaxxed, but no reported sequela. Another brother near Portland, OR has not contracted COVID, nor has he been vaxxed and has retired from his job 6 months ago age 65.

      Meanwhile, after Dr Malone exited, Gonzalo indicates that the Russians are just sitting and allowing the Ukrainians to throw themselves at the Russian firing line. (Almost like trench warfare of WWI where human waves were mowed down by machine gun fire.) This saves the Russians money, transport costs, energy etc and allows them to more efficiently fight a pseudo defensive war with the goal of not trying to occupy more land, but like a wood chipper swallowing up hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers being thrown at them. The Russians will give up a small town to make the Ukranians think their counteroffensive is working, but it is just the Russians luring them in. I feel very sorry for those poor Ukranian soldiers being so badly abused as cannon fodder by the Globalistrs and Zelensky. And the Russians are losing men too.

  31. Student says:

    For those who are interested, here it is possible to find the last article written by Dmitry Orlov about the situation in US, published on ‘Comedonchisciotte’.
    It is interesting.

    https://comedonchisciotte.org/la-possibilita-di-una-nuova-guerra-civile-americana/

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      In Italian:

      “THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW AMERICAN CIVIL WAR”

      This seems to be a link to an English version of the article

      https://thesaker.is/the-case-for-a-new-american-civil-war/

      In the article, Dmitry talks about the possibility of there being no 2024 presidential election because, by then, there will be no United States.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Da – Mitree the Russian Doomie Prepper scurried off of OFW rather quickly when the hard questions were asked of him…

      I guess he only likes Safe Spaces — where he censors anyone who challenges him

      Hey Da-Mitree — you realized your not such a heavyweight after going a few rounds on OFW…

      Coward. Weakling… Clown

  32. Rodster says:

    “Here It Comes” by JHK https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/here-it-comes/

    Excerpt: “Here’s one thing we sort of know: you-all vaxx-happy Wokesters are about to have a new BA-5 bivalent booster laid on you. The Darwin Award season has been extended at least another six months! You’ll be glad to hear it’s been tested in a trial involving eight lab mice, and quickly approved by our FDA. The bad news is that all eight mice got Covid. The worse news is that the booster was wildly inconsistent in producing antibodies among the eight identical mice, meaning the ultimate effect on their immune systems is a crap-shoot — but, hey, they’re only mice.

    Thus, some more good news: humans were so far spared any testing for this new miracle treatment. Pfizer and Moderna didn’t hurt anyone in any cobb-job trials, like they did the first time around (hiding the results). The not-so-good news is: nobody, especially no one in the FDA, has any idea what effect the new booster will have on humans. The best news is that our beneficent government will only make the new vax available to people who are already vaxxed. You have to be “eligible,” in the club, so to speak. Aren’t you special! I never joined that club, so it works for me.”

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      We will have to wait and see what really happens. JHK always thinks that things will come out the way he sees likely. I’m not sure that the vaccine lawsuits will get very far.

      • nikoB says:

        Unfortunately it always seems to be the case that whatever JHK hopes for regarding law suits re russi agate, hill ary, bankers, vaxs doesn’t happen. He should start saying nothing will happen and lets hope it gets things started.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      norm – what’s your take on testing this on 8 mice and no humans?

      Does that … concern you?

      Oh what the hell none of it’s been properly tested – like that guy who tried to coerce me so I could play in the Masters tournament ‘just get the shot’

      hahahahahaha….

  33. Adonis says:

    Heard some bad news about a workmate who got double jabbed about a month before l did he is now in induced coma for massive asthma attack he was full bore antivaccer but was told no jab no job ah the things we do for money hopefully he pulls through he has two young children and is only in his late 30s.

    • Rodster says:

      Hopefully, Fast won’t your comment because he’s looking for any excuse to visit a Pub and celebrate with a pint.

    • Xabier says:

      I hope he recovers: if he does and you can get in touch please tell him that regular anti-inflammatory supplements, spices, etc, can really work well in reducing even severe asthma. Doctors never think about suggesting those.

      The unions ought to have stopped such workplace mandates dead in their tracks, but everywhere they seem to have supported them.

      • Adonis says:

        Thank you Xabier I will tell him when he gets back to work

        • Xabier says:

          My pleasure: it’s a terrifying condition if you were a healthy non-asthmatic before.

          There are also odd triggers for asthma attacks, like breathing the steam or frying fat from cooking, or going from cold air to hot. House dust is nasty, too.

          • Kim says:

            Doing back bridges can take spinal pressure off the lungs and diaphragm and permit deeper breathing.

            Most people, bcs they sit and drive all day, do not have the thoracic extension to allow the lungs to easily take a deep breath.

            Lay on back on pillows on the ground. Legs bents and knees over feet. Palms on the ground in line with the ears. Push hips off ground then shoulders. Try to get deep extension though hips and shoulders, straightening arms and knees. 3 x 60 sec holds (with practise).

            If this gives you sore wrists, just don’t force it. Your wrists will get used to it.

            May take some practise. Over weeks or maybe months you get better at it. You will get self adjustments through the length of the spine.

            A wonderful exercise for opening the chest and for smooth walking.

            I do it twice daily – it is like a super medicine – and I am old.

            • Tim Groves says:

              Thanks for this excellent tip, Kim.

              Also, take care to go slowly as it is easy to pull a back muscle, especially for those who are just starting to practice this kind of exercise.

    • Rodster says:

      And I bet he won’t get compensated for his medical bills and troubles. If he doesn’t pull thru at least he won’t have to worry paying them but hey at least we now have it confirmed how safe and effective those vaccines really are.

      • Adonis says:

        All vaccines are shite good food and nature were what I believe in now this stuff that the government forced upon us by blackmailing us was obviously instigated by the Schwab’s of the world they will probably be lynched by angry mobs when the time comes . I don’t like thinking this way but karma will get these guys for what they’ve done

        • Rodster says:

          Oh they’ll get what’s coming to them. That you can be 100% sure.

          • Xabier says:

            According to Karma-theory, they are making a karma-reaction for themselves which means they will get buried ever deeper into an unenlightened state, and they will not be able to escape reincarnation in a world they have themselves made so terrible. No pitchforks or lamp-posts needed…..

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Yep – the vax injured are abandoned by their governments and dumped on the side of the road like a bag of trash – zero support. At best they get welfare payments…

        May as well off yourself if you get a significant injury. Candied F.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      V for Vendetta (if he has the strength…)

  34. CTG says:

    Financial collapse… on top of the 1.5T bail out of energy sector, add in that mortgage, car loans, industrial loans and all other loans that not be paid when every bill in 5x normal.

    Add in the insurance payout for deaths, disability, the fact that got cannot collect any sales tax as people cannot afford food… perfect..

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      What a mess!

      Reinstitute barter?

    • moss says:

      The story I quoted yesterday was USD 15 trillion and it was just for the EU energy derivatives’ market.
      A lot of people brush off derivatives with a “meh, there’s only one or two percent of the nominal value at risk”

      well, while that may be the case with futures that are closed out before losses become too big, it’s certainly not the case with other classes of derivatives like Credit Default Swaps on energy companies or KWh price caps, or writing way out of the money options. Prices for EU electricity have jumped FIVE fold

      Look at some other derivatives hedging portfolios – how about the Japanese bond market?
      https://kshitij.com/images/graph-gallery/bond/jpysin00_files/Yen%20Yields_5627_image002.gif
      someone’s gotta eat those losses on the 30yr over the past couple of years in the portfolios of insurance cos, pension funds and banks

      I’m inclining to liftoff 4Q too

  35. Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
    Gail Tverberg says:

    The Epoch Times is reporting that 31 out of 34 provinces of China are now reporting new Covid cases. I wonder how this will play out.

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/fresh-outbreaks-in-31-chinese-provinces-shatter-premiers-hope-to-revive-economy_4720053.html

    Fresh COVID Outbreaks in 31 Chinese Provinces Shatter Premier’s Hope to Revive Economy

    Control measures seem to vary by area.

    • Dennis L. says:

      It is an experiment, it will be as it should; man wants to influence many things, some we can change, some we deal with.

      Vaccines seem to be going this way, we have tried to change the course of biology and in the process altered ourselves more than the world. Autism seems one example, polio break throughs another(I was in Rotary when our mission was to vaccinate the world, a club in search of a broad, over reaching mission, “Service above Self.” Sometimes the best ideas can be carried too far. Covid vaccines are looking to have some issues even if well intended.

      We are along for the ride in life, it is a challenging ride, all we can do is make the best of things and something is better than nothing. Pray that every so often God puts His finger on the scale and gives us a break.

      Dennis L.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        “Sometimes the best ideas can be carried too far.”

        I think that you have hit upon a fundamental problem. Our higher educational system has this problem. Our medical system has this problem. The growth of renewables has this problem.

      • MM says:

        The question is not “Service above self” because without self there is no service.
        The law is:
        “Service to self or service to others”.

        • Xabier says:

          ‘Service to others who are worth it, because it is enlightened self-interest’?

          • Dennis L. says:

            X. The trick is to do both and not judge. I was a dentist, my job was not to judge patients. I was at the top of my class and did both private and public health successfully; some can, some are not so lucky. It helps to invest well also.

            Dennis L.

          • MM says:

            This must be decided on a case basis.
            Of course I have some self-interests, for example to serve others. 🙂

    • Student says:

      My impression is that China is applying the digital total-control on people through Covid-zero strategy.
      It is like the digital total-control on people we (in Europe) tried to establish with vaccine+green pass, but it failed.
      So, my impression is that, as they realized that digital total-control with vaccine+green pass was not possible to establish, they swiched to Covid-zero strategy.
      Actually they can do whatever they want with people anyway, so no problem to switch with something more justifiable than vaccine+green pass.

      P.S. Of course, all the above derives from resource scarcity, as we already know.

      • Student says:

        P.S. 2 ..and they go on like this, because they cannot apply the European energy austerity plan, as they cannot play with the Ukraine-war joker card…

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        You probably are right.

      • MM says:

        No, it did not fail because v.d.L. has already mentioned something like an app for energy rationing.
        The concept is based on a digital ID.
        The ID can be used for disaster recovery, school children help, easy metro tickets etc. We will get some here, some there.
        At a later stage the ID will be plugged into an algorithmic KI resource allocation process encompassing all your life.
        It will come if you like it or not and is not dependent on c9/11 at all.

        • Xabier says:

          Digital ID can be imposed by several channels – financial verification, internet ‘safety’, welfare claims and helicopter money, travel, food rationing for ‘fairness’ etc: it probably seemed like a good idea to try to piggy-back the ID on the Covid genetic vaxx programme in order to fast-forward, but it was over-reach, for now at least.

          We have just seen a temporary and tactical relaxation.

          The assault will be renewed!

  36. Mac
    Agamemnon says:

    Btw on this article: https://www.shiningscience.com/2022/09/korean-nuclear-fusion-reactor-achieves.html?m=1

    There’s this interesting discussion:

    And the engineering here is very problematic. Indeed, the issue mentioned may be a showstopper for DT fusion.
    The problem is limits on power/area through the wall of the reactor. Because all the produced energy has to go through the wall, and because the area of the wall grows as r^2, the volumetric power density of a DT reactor (that doesn’t exceed the power/area limit on the wall) must decline with increasing size.

    Response:
    you basically say that even if fusion works, getting energy out of it will be almost impossible in a meaningful way (you’re showing order of magnitudes of difference). But, don’t the engineers at ITER and other facilities have already though about that ? It’d be very irresponsible to start such a project knowing in the beginning that, at the end, there’s a high chance of failure…

    Answer:

    That’s a good question. Why do fusion people not pay attention to this issue?
    The answer is some do. And those people tend to get frustrated and quit the field (or, if they are lucky, notice the problem early and never go into fusion at all.) Lidsky is a famous example; Pfirsch and Schmitter in Europe are others. Others bottle up their objections and only let them out as they retire.
    The more common coping mechanism is just to assume someone else is going to solve it and not pay too much attention while working on other issues. It helps to focus on physics issues — which are very interesting, after all — and tell yourself that this problem is “just engineering” and can’t be too hard to solve, in comparison, and that anyway telling yourself it’s bad to think about it before the physics is nailed down (which is wrong, but lets you stop worrying that you’ve wasted your career.)
    As for ITER specifically: ITER is costing > $20B for something that could produce maybe 400 MW gross fusion power (and isn’t engineered to produce tritium, electrical power, or to survive more that a few weeks at full power). Industrial levels of denial are needed to tell oneself something like that is on a trajectory to relevance.
    Perhaps an even better question is: why are people funding DT fusion? For governments, I think it’s because in many cases the purpose of government research funding isn’t to solve problems, it’s to be seen working toward solutions in the distant future (and that perception can be achieved even if there is no actual chance of success, if the public is sufficiently unaware, which it is.) For venture capital I’m not clear what the explanation is. Spinoff technologies like high Tc superconducting magnets, maybe?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      So, we shouldn’t count on fusion to save us!

      Government funding has provided jobs and one of the areas of study that young people could follow. Even if it is a complete dead end, it has served a purpose in our growing economy. At some point, a person would think that funding for this research would stop. But there is a tendency to keep funding going far longer than any rational person would consider reasonable. Politicians need a portfolio of things that someday “might” work, if details can be worked out.

      • even if fusion ‘worked’, electricity is useless without all the gizmos that are needed to put it to use.

      • Xabier says:

        This even happens in arts subjects: as long as the academics can get a grant, which keeps their department ‘relevant’ and the all-important publication rate up, it’s all good.

        One could scrap so much research, with no real intellectual/practical loss at all.

        That’s partly why I’m a craftsman: it’s so much more honest.

        • Sam says:

          How can we believe anything anymore? There is no GDP anymore but everything just keeps going.. same with this system just plodding along…. Fake it till you make it? Everything from vaccines to wars to politics to economics seems fake these days!!!! Maybe it always was and I am just seeing it now because it’s at its ends

        • Dennis L. says:

          X, the problem is what to scrap. Evolution scraps most, many pick one. Were there a better directed way it probably would have been found.

          Perhaps evolution is a rule of the universe. Look at the thing, billions of years, billions of solar/ galaxies, whatever to make us. Man, that is divine patience. Bet the old guy will get irritated if we screw it up too much, He will sort out those screwing it up and again all will be well with the universe, evolution at work so to speak.

          Dennis L.

    • Eeyores Enigma
      Jef Jelten says:

      Quick reminder. I know I have said it many times but nuclear does not make electricity. It makes steam which then is used to make electricity. Nuke power is just a glorified steam engine that uses billions if gallons of water a day making steam that is released into the atmosphere and super hot cooling water that is released back into the rivers. Both processes can not continue with climate change drying up rivers.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Sometimes nuclear is used with sea water. Fukushima in Japan and Diablo Canyon in California. I don’t know how that works. I would think that seawater would be terribly corrosive. But at least the water is not released back into a river.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Hmmm… I thought that overpopulation and siphoning off the river water to grow food, water gardens and support millions of people who live in cities in the desert was what was drying up rivers…

        Educate yourself?

        Why Is the Aral Sea Shrinking?
        Until the 1960s, the Aral Sea Was the 4th Largest Lake in the World

        https://www.thoughtco.com/is-the-aral-sea-shrinking-1434959

        Amusingly we were shown another river on the border of Turkmenistan and told that the Aral sea issue was no problem because this other river was providing water for growing cotton … I mentioned that the other river looked rather feeble…. and well on its way to becoming a dry river bed…

        Oh no I was told – there is plenty of water…

        Stop spreading disinformation

      • Kowalainen says:

        Jef needs to study how a boiler works and what kind of water therein circulates.

        A modern steam turbine operates at 90% efficiency. Only hydro power turbines can top that.

        Just because a principle of power generation is old doesn’t make it obsolete. We’ve known electricity for centuries. It seems the electrons fail to become irrelevant for some reason.

    • kulmthestatusquo
      kulmthestatusquo says:

      “Korea” and “Nuclear Fusion”, or anything related to science and tech, are words which do not belong in the same paragraph.

    • MM says:

      The problem with fusion is you need the energy generated to keep the fusion going which will be at any place at any time in the cavern but you want to extract energy and that is at a constant place for a sustained period of time.
      These boundary conditions can never be fulfilled because they are mutually exclusive.

  37. Tim Groves says:

    The Military Summary Channel guy usually puts out one video each day in the evening. Today, he has broken that habit to bring us a 7-minute bulletin at 7:30 am Belarus time.

    It seems that the Ukrainians have made a major breakthrough to recapture a large area of territory between Kharkov and Izyum. Possibly a disaster for the Russians, or at minimum a major setback. Or possibly a trap set by the Russians for the Ukranians. Or perhaps the entire war is a piece of theatre to keep us entertained while providing an excuse to kill half of Europe from hypothermia this winter. Or maybe its a simulation in the simulation Elon Musk and CGT suspect we are living in.

    At the very least, this will put a dent into Mirror on the Wall’s and David in a Million Billion Year’s cheerleading. They must feel a bit like the Germans did when Geoff Hurst scored that dodgy equalizer.

    https://rumble.com/v1jbe9y-ukraine.-military-summary-and-analysis-09.09.2022.-morning-of-local-time.html

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      So, Ukraine is perhaps doing better, for now.

      • Xabier says:

        People tend to concentrate on obvious victories and defeats; but in modern energy-intensive war, the principal factor is the comparative degradation and consumption of war materiel, and personnel.

        So, a ‘defeat’, or loss of territory, is actually a victory if it is too expensive for one’s opponent, and bearably, not ruinously, expensive for oneself.

        In all wars generals on both sides make the most terrible blunders, and sacrifice lives in futile exercises: in reality, it’s about who is left standing at the end, and where….

    • It is a bit like this. (4:46)

    • These events may help Russia to shift out of the limited ‘special military operation’ mode into a more general engagement by Russian forces. They may provide the context that is politically needed in the Duma to authorise that. Events cannot be fully understood without the context that follows. Their import will become clearer in the weeks to come.

    • UKR momentum and its import near Izium have been massively overblown by sensationalist ‘armchair’ reporting on the ground that does not stand up. (That is not to say that Biden has not quickly capitalised on it by chucking out more funds.) Troops and equipment are flooding into the area.

    • fromoasa says:

      Gee, all the same, one sure can’t help but express one’s admiration for the courage of that doughty duo of cheerleaders, Little Mirror and Big Rodster, situated as they are only a few dozens of hundred miles behind enemy lines while they undertake their dangerous reporting: “Boof!”, “LOL!”, and so on. Even in their safe Western homes, if their IP addresses were harvested they could be in grave peril, in these deeply uncertain times. In the old days they’d have surely been called fellow travelers or traitors or what not. In fact, I think we OFW’ers should acclaim these heroes by crowdfunding them some cheerleader outfits:

      https://www.elliottsfancydress.co.uk/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/650x/040ec09b1e35df139433887a97daa66f/z/o/zombie-cheerleader-43023-.jpg

      😉

    • banned says:

      I think this is a fair analysis below
      Not a disaster a serious setback
      The things that have made Putin such a effective leader may not allow good decisions in war.
      Criticism of the velvet fist approach in Russia is multiplied by this loss.
      Putin and the Generals were participating in the Volstok military exercises with China and India and not watching the ball in Ukraine.
      The troops holding this area were not regular Russian military

      https://www.bitchute.com/video/zMdmlZs-F9Y/

      Russia is in a bit of trouble IMO. Remember the Donbass was supposed to be over by September. The Kramatorsk line is far from broken. Its not getting done. The Ukrainians have not folded.

      Russia obviously does not want to reinforce they like their troop distributions where they are for obvious reasons -troop distributions appropriate for war with NATO. Perhaps the slow grind will in the end topple the Kramatorsk line? Winter is almost here. One has to guess the Russians will become more effective in winter. The Ukrainian military has taken incredible losses. How the hell are they holding the Kramatorsk line? But they are somehow. They must of kept some good troops there in those extensive fortifications. Time will tell.

      Not much talk of Russia taking Odessa lately. Pretty clear now that was pie in the sky without another 150k troops and significantly more ordnance depletion.

      NPR was talking about Zaporizhzhia today. The plant has been cut off from grid electricity for four days. First the main connection to the grid then the backup connection in seperate shelling events. The grid is usually what supplies the power to cool those silly reactor rods. The reporting was remarkably unconcerned. “the reactors have containment if they melt down” “If they have to go to the diesel generators they will” . “only ten days of diesel not the usual 14” . Hey just suppose perhaps the containment gets breached seeing as ordnance is going off daily in the direct vicinity? Ya think? Apparently one of the reactors can operate at very low power to supply all the reactors with power for cooling. Thats a neat trick usually nuclear power plants cant supply their own power. Very good news. The reporting ended with “russia and Ukraine have been told to knock the shelling off”. I feel much better. I still dont understand why Russia is shelling territory they control but you know those russians-crafty. The largest nuclear power plant in Europe cut off from the grid by daily shelling in a war zone. Its almost as if we are being prepared for a nuclear disaster with the nonchalance. Zaporizhzhia becomes Vaporizhzhia no big deal.

      23 is year of the rabbit. Not exactly a war like animal so perhaps there will not be a world wide nuclear weapon exchange.

      24 is year of the dragon.

      • Wars (or SMO) can drag on for ages these days, look at Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan. Russia itself has published no date for clearing the Donbass. It is attritional, and UKR are taking huge if gradual losses. It is only a matter of time. Russia is achieving a lot geopolitically while the grind goes on, and the SMO provides the backdrop to that. I was a bit surprised to see the two Alexes getting so outspoken on that show. They expected a more robust intervention, which is fair enough, but it is not their decision. The big picture is the rupture between the rest of the world and USA/ western Europe, which is playing out in all sorts of ways while the grind goes on.

        • banned says:

          I thought the analysis by the two Alexs was showed their ability to be impartial observers. The outcome of the war will be determined by the resources Russia is willing to expend in the Ukraine. The greater question is how long Ukraine will consume resources and will those resources remain excess resources that they can expend.

          If they clear the Ukraine military to the Dnieper they have a reasonable chance of reducing their resource consumption to a tolerable level. If it takes more resources to do this it is a problem.

          The question whether NATO enters the war is far from resolved. There are many signs that all parties expect this. IMO the EU will vote in politicians that will abandon support of Ukraine after a period without Russian energy. This means the window for bringing NATO in has a limited time span.

          The real question is whether those that created this situation are willing to let the clock run out as political will to continue the war ends in Europe and a multipolar organism that may or may not be more just than the unipolar one loses maximum power principle.
          The alternative NATO coming into the war which will almost guarantee a nuclear exchange that escalates is not off the table. IMO far from it it is almost guranteed based on observed behavior

          If NATO coming in was off the table Russia would just commit another 150k or quarter million troops and it would be over. If they do NATO comes in now that Russia is overextended.. If they dont NATO comes in anyway before the clock runs out. Or im wrong the clock runs out and the USA and west get to try to determine their future left with only delusions. While I dont necessarily believe the “west” is suicidal I do believe they really dont know how to operate other than maximum power principle and brinkmanship

          Russia is not going to reinforce. They will sit on the ball and hope for the clock to run out. Russia can not tell their people that war with NATO is assured and their troop allotments reflect that any more than the west can. Not reinforcing is not popular. The Russian people think there are alternatives to a war with NATO just like the wests people do. To inform them otherwise is to inform them of the reality of the power struggle. Just like the west makes light of the possibility of a nuclear disaster and a world war Russia must do the same. The wests hopes lie with the Russian peoples dissatisfaction. The window is a short one. IMO the people of Europe will demand the politicians deal with Russia for energy and abandon support for the war and this forces decisions within whatever time frame that occurs in. In the meantime The Russian troops in the Ukraine do the best they can with what they have and that is not unsubstantial. Is the transition to defense necessitated? My guess is yes. Thats a new game it wont be popular in Russia.

          We have discounted the danger of the weapons we have created. They have only existed for a short time without being used. Is it reasonable to think they will never be used for all eternity? That is insane. We reap what we have sown. The fissionable material itself is beyond or capability to store safely let alone using that material in devices that convert matter to energy in a completely uncontrolled fashion for the ex[press purpose of destruction. When the weapons were created the possibility of their use became possible. As time passes so does the probability that any particular possibility manifests. Combined with the reality of resource depletion I see the odds as quite unfavorable. If god exists we better hope he puts a end to this nonsense because the outcome is quite predictable.

  38. Fast Eddy says:

    Hong Kong Extends Covid-19 Vaccine Mandate to Children as Young as 5 Years

    HONG KONG—Children as young as 5 years old will be banned from public venues in Hong Kong, including swimming pools, cinemas and restaurants, unless they have received at least two Covid-19 vaccine shots.

    The city’s health authorities on Thursday said the current vaccine mandate, from which children under 12 had been exempt, would be extended from the end of this month to those as young as 5. Some parents have been hesitant to vaccinate their children out of safety concerns.

    The government has said that recent Covid-related deaths of children underscored the need to widen vaccination requirements to younger age groups.

    Having kept previous Covid-19 strains largely under control, Hong Kong has recorded more than 9,500 deaths from the virus since the arrival of the highly transmissible Omicron variants, with more than 95% of victims over 60, and most of those unvaccinated. More than 30% of Hong Kong’s over-80s haven’t received two doses, government data show.

    Hong Kong’s stringent and at times seemingly arbitrary anti-Covid policies have been among the factors driving some residents to leave the financial center, which in prepandemic times was known for a light-handed approach by government and attractive lifestyle options. For parents, these have included a decision this year to close schools early for citywide Covid-19 tests, only for the decision to be reversed. Fears of children being separated from families and uncertainty over the ability to get in or out of the city for holidays or study abroad have also eroded Hong Kong’s appeal.

    August was the first month since the beginning of 2021 that the number of Hong Kong residents flying into the city surpassed the number flying out, according to government data compiled by David Webb, an independent expert on governance and regulatory issues. That coincided with Hong Kong reducing quarantine for arrivals to three nights in designated hotels, and with students returning from overseas during their summer break.

    Libby Lee, Hong Kong’s undersecretary for health, said that after the Omicron outbreak, 38 children between 3 and 11 years old had been in a severe or critical condition because of Covid. Thirty-one of them were unvaccinated, while four others had only received one shot. And of the eight children who died from Covid-related causes, none had received two shots, she said, urging parents not to wait any longer.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kong-extends-covid-19-vaccine-mandate-to-children-as-young-as-5-years-11662639118

    Extermination.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The policy in Hong Kong is increasingly like the policy in China.

      Also, I notice that based on Our World in Data, Hong Kong had an amazingly high number of deaths, equal to about three times the number of normal deaths, around the month of March 2022.

      https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-death-count-single-series?country=~HKG

      I am sure officials in Hong Kong were frightened by the high death rate. If I remember correctly, Hong Kong was one of the places that did not vaccinate very many of the elderly. Also, I am fairly sure that the Chinese vaccines do not have nearly as bad an injury/death rate as the mRNA vaccines.

      Requiring a three-day quarantine is a way of reducing travel, and thus airline fuel use. If short fuel supplies are an issue, quarantines thus serve multiple purposes.

      • Xabier says:

        I am convinced that China is actually under some kind of bio-attack.

        As well as using the lock-downs for social control and to mask energy problems.

    • Tim Groves says:

      Hong Kong: population 7 million; 88% of whom have had at least two jabs; 9,769 deaths due to “Covid”. That’s 0.14% of the entire population.

      For comparison:
      Taiwan: population 20.2 million; 85.6% of whom have had at least two jabs; 10,700 deaths due to “Covid”. That’s 0.05% of the entire population.

      South Korea: population 51.8 million; 86.3% of whom have had at least two jabs; 27,381 deaths due to “Covid”. That’s 0.053% of the entire population.

      Japan: population 125.8 million; 81.6% of whom have had at least two jabs; 42,110 deaths due to “Covid”. That’s 0.034% of the entire population.

      Vietnam: population 98.0 million; over 95% of whom have had at least two jabs; 43,126 deaths due to “Covid”. That’s 0.045% of the entire population.

      I would do China, but China’s Covid-19 figures are even more of a joke than the rest of them. Even the population figure is “fuzzy”. So let7s leave out China and ask, why is the Hong Kong figure of Covid deaths so high relatively?

      Is it because of the high population density making it easier to spread diseases from person to person? Or because everybody is exposed to comparatively high levels of pollution? Or are they Vitamin D deficient because the smog blocks UV light from the sun? Or because they smoke too much or exercise too little? Or something they put into the noodles?

      Whatever it is, Hong Kong’s Covide death rate stands head and shoulders above that of any other place in East Asia.

  39. Fast Eddy says:

    “Almost 1,000 unmarked graves have been found at former residential schools in British Columbia and Saskatchewan that were mainly run by the Catholic Church and funded by the government.

    For 165 years and as recently as 1996, the schools forcibly separated Indigenous children from their families, subjecting them to malnourishment and physical and sexual abuse in what the Truth and Reconciliation Commission called “cultural genocide” in 2015.

    In Winnipeg, a crowd cheered as Queen Victoria’s statue fell outside the Manitoba provincial legislature. Protesters, many of whom wore orange clothing, also kicked the toppled statue and danced around it. The pedestal and statue were daubed in red paint hand marks.

    A nearby statue of Queen Elizabeth was also pulled down. She is Canada’s current head of state, while Victoria reigned from 1837 to 1901 when Canada was part of the British empire.”

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/2/statues-of-queen-victoria-queen-elizabeth-ii-toppled-in-canada

    hahahahahahahaahaha

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      “Almost 1,000 unmarked graves” over 165 years amounts to about 6 graves per year. In fact, most of these graves could be from long ago, when resources were not available to make the deaths of infants and small children.

      There is always an issue of “poor people in poor countries” being at a disadvantage when there are not enough goods and services to go around. Winnipeg is sort of out in the middle of nowhere. It is north of Minnesota/North Dakota. I am sure the indigenous people were among the poorest residents of the area. Bad things no doubt happened, but they were likely to have happened under anyone’s rule.

      • Xabier says:

        Poorer people were buried in the churchyard here with only wooden crosses, some of which still survive, and unmarked graves were also quite common.

        I view those crosses with the greatest respect; they probably worked very hard for little reward.

        • Dennis L. says:

          Yes, and it feels deeply good. Huberman claims lack of gratitude expressed towards a person is deeply hurtful. Sometimes thank you goes a long way.

          Dennis L.

  40. Fast Eddy says:

    Europe on brink https://twitter.com/mtmalinen/status/1567435886165360641?s=28

    Queen Elizabeth Covid: How many doses did she receive? (February 2022)

    “It is believed that Queen Elizabeth II has had three doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.

    She received her first dose in January of 2021 along with the Duke of Edinburgh, who later died a few months later..

    Since then, it is understood that she has had two more doses of the vaccine, the original second dose and then a winter booster a few months ago.”

    https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/uk-news/2022/02/21/62135968268e3ecc3e8b45d5.html

    • toldya

      queen is 96—has her booster–poof, gone!!! D’you think maybe Chas picked up a spare dose from Bill Gates, to give to his mum while she was preoccupied elsewhere?

      Charles is now running round Buck House, cackling—“its all MINE, MINE at last, i tell you,” grabbing trinkets to take on the Antiques Roadshow, (properly masked up of course)

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The important take away is, Europe is at the brink of a banking crisis.

      Not having enough cheap fossil fuels to balance the large amount of renewables on the grid is a huge problem. There are really too many “renewables” on the grid already, IMO.

      • Xabier says:

        The best ‘savings’ now are fuel, food, shelter and a strong arm and cunning to defend them. For a time.

        I would add some kind of armour, a stab-proof vest at least. I’l be knitting one of those this winter (joke).

        Welcome back to the 11th century……

    • Tim Groves says:

      On Feb 20, 2022, the BBC reported on HM QE2’s Covid-19 diagnosis: !The Queen, who will be 96 in April, had her first vaccine in January 2021 and is believed to have had all her follow-up jabs after that.”

      If this is true, she would have had three jabs up to February.

      In the UK, a fourth shot is recommended for everyone, especially old folks, who started receiving it in the spring of 2022.

      The BBC again: “Fourth-dose Covid booster vaccines increase protection against Covid-19, particularly in people aged over 70, according to a UK trial.
      But scientists say any short-term protection against infection is likely to fall away quickly. The UK rolled out fourth doses to over-75s and the most vulnerable in April.”

      Given this official policy, the Queen’s doctors would have been remiss not to have administered a fourth dose to Her Majesty in the spring or the early summer at the latest. If they had failed to do so, they would have been denying her the protection that these safe and effective vaccines provide.

      So she must have had her fourth shot, at least officially.

      • Tim Groves says:

        * I meant to write “recommended for everyone over 12 years old”.

      • Xabier says:

        Thanks Tim, I’d lost track of the count.

        So, for many here, this autumn will be shot no 5 – Moderna this time – and for the elderly the ‘flu jab as well.

        Good luck to them…

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Prince Philip’s official cause of death hasn’t been revealed by Buckingham Palace yet, but many believe that his declining health could’ve been a result of a recent infection and heart issue.

        On February 16, a spokesperson for Buckingham Palace confirmed that Philip has been admitted to King Edward VII’s Hospital in London as a “precautionary measure.” A week later, Buckingham Palace reported that Philip was in the hospital for an infection. The palace confirmed that the infection was unrelated to the novel coronavirus, which he and the Queen had been vaccinated against in January 2021.

        https://markcrispinmiller.substack.com/p/of-what-did-queen-elizabeth-just/

  41. Fast Eddy says:

    Disgusting https://t.me/c/1588731774/14168

    And.. he’s gone https://t.me/TexasLindsay/432

    https://t.me/TexasLindsay/436

    Victoria Australia saw a 36% increase in excess deaths in August 2022, compared to the monthly average since January 2020.
    95% of the adult population is vaccinated and most have received at least 1 if not 2 boosters. (Pop. Approx. 7M)

    https://twitter.com/katetalkstruth/status/1568010043861225472?s=21&t=4ULoBPWjdVGNstrFTSOPRw

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      First link is to study showing that Remdesivir is of no benefit to Covid patients who are already ventilated.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        They are given this drug to kill them so they can drive up ‘covid death numbers’ and encourage people to boost…

        They also do this then claim covid ‘destroyed their body organs’ … when it’s actually the drug wrecking the internals… to scare the MOREONS and encourage them to boost.

        You have to keep in mind there are loads of people who do not know what 15% of 100 is… huge numbers… and there are huge numbers who believe we will all be driving EVs by 2035…. in fact over 99.9999% would believe one or the other – or both… along with all sorts of other nonsense that the MSM told them — cuz they are………..

        STOOOPID MOREONS!

        Think about it — do you know anyone who does not believe most of what the MSM tells them?

        And the most highly educated… are the most likely to believe whatever they are told.

        There you have it ….barnyard animals…. all of them

        They are so f789ing stooopid that if they were to read this they’d think FE was out of his mind for daring to suggest this… they wouldn’t get it

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Thanks for the link. Link to an hour video on “How can we finance net zero?” Expectation is that growth can continue forever, with transition to net zero carbon policies.

      • Dennis L. says:

        I don’t know, the universe seems to do some very crazy, interesting things; it does seem to take long time periods in terms of human life span, it requires huge scale and at times can be a bit noisy and explosive in its solutions. Still, here we are.

        Dennis L.

        • kulmthestatusquo
          kulmthestatusquo says:

          The universe obviously was not working when it allowed Ramanujan’s ship to arrive to England, rather than send him to the bottom of ocean before he corrupted science and tech beyond recovery.

      • MM says:

        Yes, growth in species extinction can continue for ever. That is a no brainer. One day it will just be Homo Sapiens. And then something else will keep on growing.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I’ll do a norm … and not click that…

        But I won’t book any shots

  42. Jan says:

    New Italian study in International Journal of Vaccine Theory, Practice, and Research.

    The red blood cells somehow stick together in 94% of the total sample of “1,006 patients referred to the “Giovannini Biodiagnostic Center” for various disorders after inoculation with mRNA injections(Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna)”. So not 94% of the injected but of those with disorders.

    Is that compatible to Jessica Rose’s assumptions and Arne Burkhardt’s findings? Is there any cure?

    Abstract:
    The use of dark-field microscopic analysis of fresh peripheral blood on a slide was once widespread in medicine, allowing a first and immediate assessment of the state of health of the corpuscular components of the blood. In the present study we analyzed with a dark-field optical microscope the peripheral blood drop from 1,006 symptomatic subjects after inoculation with an mRNA injection (Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna), starting from March 2021. There were 948 subjects (94%of the total sample) whose bloodshowed aggregation of erythrocytes and the presence of particles of various shapes and sizes of unclear origin one month after the mRNA inoculation.In 12 subjects,blood was examined with the same method before vaccination, showing a perfectly normal hematological distribution. The alterations found after the inoculation of the mRNA injections further reinforce the suspicion that the modifications were due to the so-called “vaccines”themselves. We report 4 clinical cases, chosen as representative of the entire case series. Further studies are needed to define the exact nature of the particles found in the blood and to identify possible solutions to the problems they are evidently causing.

    https://ijvtpr.com/index.php/IJVTPR/article/view/47/86

    • Student says:

      In the discussion and conclusion:

      “In the present study,bloodsamplesof 1,006 symptomatic subjects after one or more anti-COVID mRNA injectionsfromPfizer/BioNTech or Moderna wereanalyzed under anoptical microscope in the dark-field. Of the 1,006 cases, 948 (94.23% ) SHOWED VARIOUS ALTERATION IN THE BLOOD. Aggregation of erythrocytes were highlighted and exogenous point-like and self-luminescent particles in the dark-fieldweredetected. The luminescence of those particles was markedly higher than that of oxygenated red blood cell walls. The particulate infiltrates, whatever they may consist of, gave the appearance of a starry skyat night.All of the International Journal of Vaccine Theory, Practice, and Research2(2), August 12, 2022 Page | 402abnormal blood samples of injected persons, the 948 cases,showed tubular/fibrous formations and frequently also crystalline and lamellar formations with extremely complex but consistently similar morphologiesacross all of the patients with abnormal blood samples.Our results are so similar to those of Lee et al. (2022) that it could be claimed that, except for our innovative application of dark-field microscopyto mark the foreign metal-like objects in the blood of mRNA injections from Pfizer or Moderna, we have replicated the blood work of the Korean doctors with a much larger sample. Our findings, however, are bolstered by their parallel analysis of the fluidsin vials of the mRNA concoctions alongside centrifuged plasma samples from the cases they studied intensively. WHAT SEEMS PLAIN ENOUGH IS THAT METALLIC PARTICLES RESEMBLING GRAPHENE OXYDE AND POSSIIBLY OTHER METALLIC COMPUNDS, like those discovered by Gatti and Montanari (Montanari & Gatti, 2016; Gatti & Montanari, 2012, 2017, 2018), have been included in the cocktail of whatever the manufacturers have seen fit to put in the so-called mRNA “vaccines”. In our experience as clinicians, these mRNA injections are very unlike traditional “vaccines” and THEIR MANUFACTURERS NEED, IN OUR OPINIONS, TO COME CLEAN ABOUT WHAT IS IN THE INJECTIONS AND WHY IT IS THERE.”

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Strange wording for an academic paper:

        “THEIR MANUFACTURERS NEED, IN OUR OPINIONS, TO COME CLEAN ABOUT WHAT IS IN THE INJECTIONS AND WHY IT IS THERE.

        • MM says:

          This question is baseless because the EUA of the EU mentioned some “unexpected” stuff in the vaccines and it was demanded that this be resolved.

  43. Fast Eddy says:

    I was thinking of buying a round in the pub and toasting ‘to the death of Queen Elizabeth – a great parasite’…

    M Fast is urging me not to do that.

    • Rodster says:

      Great idea and i’m urging you to do it. The rest of her freeloader family needs to be put out on the street and made to work for a living. So much for Royal privilege.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I wanted to … I really did… but I’m thinking for PM so thought it best to hold my tongue

        Word is the glue factory rejected the carcass…too bony

      • Xabier says:

        Parasitism goes with the job: what I will never forgive is that the whole damn useless family also actively pushed the jab and went along with the masks nonsense.

        I don’t see how any decent person can consent to being served by masked people at a social event: the only time I had to go along with that I hated every minute of it.

        • Xabier says:

          I didn’t realise that the waiting staff would be masked until I got there and was seated, and I still regret not walking out, but it might have looked a bit prima dona-ish.

    • Rodster says:

      In remembrance of the freeloader here’s a great video.

    • Adonis says:

      Queen and King got jabbed on January 2021 both gone now coincidence?

      • Jan says:

        I guess, Charles recommended it?

        • Fast Eddy says:

          How about if Prince Andrew gets the crown — I’d vote for that…

          And Hunter Biden could be his side-kick… a god damn freak show is what I am after…

          A few trannies.. lots of blow … some 12 yr olds….

          Roll old Joe out in a wheelchair … smoking a fat cigar… and clapping one hand (only one hand) in appreciation …. Someone get the Geezer a line of blow … jack him up!

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Good riddance

        People telling me that they flew their NZ flag at half mast… dunno why…

        Who gives f789s?

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