Ramping Up Renewables Can’t Provide Enough Heat Energy in Winter

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We usually don’t think about the wonderful service fossil fuels provide in terms of being a store of heat energy for winter, the time when there is a greater need for heat energy. Figure 1 shows dramatically how, in the US, the residential usage of heating fuels spikes during the winter months.

Figure 1. US residential use of energy, based on EIA data. The category “Natural Gas, etc.” includes all fuels bought directly by households and burned. This is primarily natural gas, but also includes small amounts of propane and diesel burned as heating oil. Wood chips or other commercial wood purchased to be burned is also in this category.

Solar energy is most abundantly available in the May-June-July period, making it a poor candidate for fixing the problem of the need for winter heat.

Figure 2. California solar electricity production by month through June 30, 2022, based on EIA data. Amounts are for utility scale and small scale solar combined.

In some ways, the lack of availability of fuels for winter is a canary in the coal mine regarding future energy shortages. People have been concerned about oil shortages, but winter fuel shortages are, in many ways, just as bad. They can result in people “freezing in the dark.”

In this post, I will look at some of the issues involved.

[1] Batteries are suitable for fine-tuning the precise time during a 24-hour period solar electricity is used. They cannot be scaled up to store solar energy from summer to winter.

In today’s world, batteries can be used to delay the use of solar electricity for at most a few hours. In exceptional situations, perhaps the holding period can be increased to a few days.

California is known both for its high level of battery storage and its high level of renewables. These renewables include both solar and wind energy, plus smaller amounts of electricity generated in geothermal plants and electricity generated by burning biomass. The problem encountered is that the electricity generated by solar panels tends to start and end too early in the day, relative to when citizens want to use this electricity. After citizens return home after work, they would like to cook their dinners and use their air conditioning, leading to considerable demand after the sun sets.

Figure 3. Illustration by Inside Climate News showing the combination of resources utilized during July 9, 2022, which was a day of peak electricity consumption. Imports refer to electricity purchased from outside the State of California.

Figure 3 illustrates how batteries in combination with hydroelectric generation (hydro) are used to save electricity generation from early in the day for use in the evening hours. While battery use is suitable for fine tuning exactly when, during a 24-hour period, solar energy will be used, the quantity of batteries cannot be ramped up sufficiently to save electricity from summer to winter. The world would run out of battery-making materials, if nothing else.

[2] Ramping up hydro is not a solution to our problem of inadequate energy for heat in winter.

One problem is that, in long-industrialized economies, hydro capabilities were built out years ago.

Figure 4. Annual hydro generation based on data of BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

It is difficult to believe that much more buildout is available in these countries.

Another issue is that hydro tends to be quite variable from year to year, even over an area as large as the United States, as shown in Figure 4 above. When the variability is viewed over a smaller area, the year-to-year variability is even higher, as illustrated in Figure 5 below.

Figure 5. Monthly California hydroelectric generation through June 30, 2022, based on EIA data.

The pattern shown reflects peak generation in the spring, when the ice pack is melting. Low generation generally occurs during the winter, when the ice pack is frozen. Thus, hydro tends not be helpful for raising winter energy supplies. A similar pattern tends to happen in other temperate areas.

A third issue is that variability in hydro supply is already causing problems. Norway has recently reported that it may need to limit hydro exports in coming months because water reservoirs are low. Norway’s exports of electricity are used to help balance Europe’s wind and solar electricity. Thus, this issue may lead to yet another energy problem for Europe.

As another example, China reports a severe power crunch in its Sichuan Province, related to low rainfall and high temperatures. Fossil fuel generation is not available to fill the gap.

[3] Wind energy is not a greatly better than hydro and solar, in terms of variability and poor timing of supply.

For example, Europe experienced a power crunch in the third quarter of 2021 related to weak winds. Europe’s largest wind producers (Britain, Germany and France) produced only 14% of their rated capacity during this period, compared with an average of 20% to 26% in previous years. No one had planned for this kind of three-month shortfall.

In 2021, China experienced dry, windless weather, resulting in both its generation from wind and hydro being low. The country found it needed to use rolling blackouts to deal with the situation. This led to traffic lights failing and many families needing to eat candle-lit dinners.

Even viewed on a nationwide basis, US wind generation varies considerably from month to month.

Figure 6. Total US wind electricity generation through June 20, 2022, based on EIA data.

US total wind electricity generation tends to be highest in April or May. This can cause oversupply issues because hydro generation tends to be high about the same time. The demand for electricity tends to be low because of generally mild weather. The result is that even at today’s renewable levels, a wet, windy spring can lead to a situation in which the combination of hydro and wind electricity supply exceeds total local demand for electricity.

[4] As more wind and solar are added to the grid, the challenges and costs become increasingly great.

There are a huge number of technical problems associated with trying to add a large amount of wind and solar energy to the grid. Some of them are outlined in Figure 7.

Figure 7. Introductory slide from a presentation by power engineers shown in this YouTube Video.

One of the issues is torque distortion, especially related to wind energy.

Figure 8. Slide describing torque distortion issues from the same presentation to power engineers as Figure 7. YouTube Video.

There are also many other issues, including some outlined on this Drax website. Wind and solar provide no “inertia” to the system. This makes me wonder whether the grid could even function without a substantial amount of fossil fuel or nuclear generation providing sufficient inertia.

Furthermore, wind and solar tend to make voltage fluctuate, necessitating systems to absorb and discharge something called “reactive power.”

[5] The word “sustainable” has created unrealistic expectations with respect to intermittent wind and solar electricity.

A person in the wind turbine repair industry once told me, “Wind turbines run on a steady supply of replacement parts.” Individual parts may be made to last 20-years, or even longer, but there are so many parts that some are likely to need replacement long before that time. An article in Windpower Engineering says, “Turbine gearboxes are typically given a design life of 20 years, but few make it past the 10-year mark.”

There is also the problem of wind damage, especially in the case of a severe storm.

Figure 9. Hurricane-damaged solar panels in Puerto Rico. Source.

Furthermore, the operational lives for fossil fuel and nuclear generating plants are typically much longer than those for wind and solar. In the US, some nuclear plants have licenses to operate for 60 years. Efforts are underway to extend some licenses to 80 years.

With the short life spans for wind and solar, constant rebuilding of wind turbines and solar generation is necessary, using fossil fuels. Between the rebuilding issue and the need for fossil fuels to maintain the electric grid, the output of wind turbines and solar panels cannot be expected to last any longer than fossil fuel supply.

[6] Energy modeling has led to unrealistic expectations for wind and solar.

Energy models don’t take into account all of the many adjustments to the transmission system that are needed to support wind and solar, and the resulting added costs. Besides the direct cost of the extra transmission required, there is an ongoing need to inspect parts for signs of wear. Brush around the transmission lines also needs to be cut back. If adequate maintenance is not performed, transmission lines can cause fires. Burying transmission lines is sometimes an option, but doing so is expensive, both in energy use and cost.

Energy models also don’t take into account the way wind turbines and solar panels perform in “real life.” In particular, most researchers miss the point that electricity from solar panels cannot be expected to be very helpful for meeting our need for heat energy in winter. If we want to add more summer air conditioning, solar panels can “sort of” support this effort, especially if batteries are also added to help fine tune when, during the 24-hour day, the solar electricity will be utilized. Unfortunately, we don’t have any realistic way of saving the output of solar panels from summer to winter.

It seems to me that supporting air conditioning is a rather frivolous use for what seems to be a dwindling quantity of available energy supply. In my opinion, our first two priorities should be adequate food supply and preventing freezing in the dark in winter. Solar, especially, does nothing for these issues. Wind can be used to pump water for crops and animals. In fact, an ordinary windmill, built 100 years ago, can also be used to provide this type of service.

Because of the intermittency issue, especially the “summer to winter” intermittency issue, wind and solar are not truly replacements for electricity produced by fossil fuels or nuclear. The problem is that most of the current system needs to remain in place, in addition to the renewable energy system. When researchers make cost comparisons, they should be comparing the cost of the intermittent energy, including necessary batteries and grid enhancements with the cost of the fuel saved by operating these devices.

[7] Competitive pricing plans that enable the growth of wind and solar electricity are part of what is pushing a number of areas in the world toward a “freezing-in-the-dark” problem.

In the early days of electricity production, “utility pricing” was generally used. With this approach, vertical integration of electricity supply was encouraged. A utility would make long term contracts with a number of providers and would set prices for customers based on the expected long-term cost of electricity production and distribution. The utility would make certain that transmission lines were properly repaired and would add new generation as needed.

Energy prices of all kinds spiked in the late 1970s. Not long afterward, in an attempt to prevent high electricity prices from causing inflation, a shift in pricing arrangements started taking place. More competition was encouraged, with the new approach called competitive pricing. Vertically integrated groups were broken up. Wholesale electricity prices started varying by time of day, based on which providers were willing to sell their production at the lowest price, for that particular time period. This approach encouraged providers to neglect maintaining their power lines and stop adding more storage capacity. Any kind of overhead expense was discouraged.

In fact, under this arrangement, wind and solar were also given the privilege of “going first.” If too much energy in total was produced, negative rates could result for other providers. This approach was especially harmful for nuclear energy. Nuclear power plants found that their overall price structure was too low. They sometimes closed because of inadequate profitability. New investments in nuclear energy were discouraged, as was proper maintenance. This effect has been especially noticeable in Europe.

Figure 10. Nuclear, wind and solar electricity generated in Europe, based on data of BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

The result is that about a third of the gain from wind and solar energy has been offset by the decline in nuclear electricity generation. Of course, nuclear is another low-carbon form of electricity. It is a great deal more reliable than wind or solar. It can even help prevent freezing in the dark because it is likely to be available in winter, when more electricity for heating is likely to be needed.

Another issue is that competitive pricing discouraged the building of adequate storage facilities for natural gas. Also, it tended to discourage purchasing natural gas under long term contracts. The thinking went, “Rather than building storage, why not wait until the natural gas is needed, and then purchase it at the market rate?”

Unfortunately, producing natural gas requires long-term investments. Companies producing natural gas operate wells that produce approximately equal amounts year-round. The same pattern of high winter-consumption of natural gas tends to occur almost simultaneously in many Northern Hemisphere areas with cold winters. If the system is going to work, customers need to be purchasing natural gas, year-round, and stowing it away for winter.

Natural gas production has been falling in Europe, as has coal production (not shown), necessitating more imports of replacement fuel, often natural gas.

Figure 11. Natural gas production in Europe, based on data of BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

With competitive rating and LNG ships seeming to sell natural gas on an “as needed” basis, there has been a tendency in Europe to overlook the need for long term contracts and additional storage to go with rising natural gas imports. Now, Europe is starting to discover the folly of this approach. Solar is close to worthless for providing electricity in winter; wind cannot be relied upon. It doesn’t ramp up nearly quickly enough, in any reasonable timeframe. The danger is that countries will risk having their citizens freeze in the dark because of inadequate natural gas import availability.

[8] The world is a very long way from producing enough wind and solar to solve its energy problems, especially its need for heat in winter.

The energy supply that the world uses includes much more than electricity. It contains oil and fuels burned directly, such as natural gas. The percentage share of this total energy supply that wind and solar output provides depends on how it is counted. The International Energy Agency treats wind and solar as if they only replace fuel, rather than replacing dispatchable electricity.

Figure 12 Wind and solar generation for a category called “Wind, Solar, etc.” by the IEA. Amounts are for 2020 for Germany, the UK, Australia, Norway, the United States, and Japan. For other groups shown in this chart, the amounts are calculated using 2019 data.

On this basis, the share of total energy provided by the Wind and Solar category is very low, only 2.2% for the world as a whole. Germany comes out highest of the groups analyzed, but even it is replacing only 6.0% of its total energy consumed. It is difficult to imagine how the land and water around Germany could tolerate wind turbines and solar panels being ramped up sufficiently to cover such a shortfall. Other parts of the world are even farther from replacing current energy supplies with wind and solar.

Clearly, we cannot expect wind and solar to ever be ramped up to meet our energy needs, even in combination with hydro.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,845 Responses to Ramping Up Renewables Can’t Provide Enough Heat Energy in Winter

  1. Kinda cool…Global Population over a 300 year span visual presentation

    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/global-population-300-years-by-country/

    Fun to watch the human hoarde grow by leaps and bounds…not that I’m complaining any!

  2. Hey, maybe they need to blow up some more of their energy infrastructure?

    EU is set on capping the price of Russian oil even though Russia has said that it will just cut them off; and NDL has banned the maintenance of the TurkStream pipeline into SE Europe.

    ‘Blow it all up!’

    > GBP and EURO collapse continues. EU/UK leaders on borrowed time

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Real concern that the UK financial system is on the edge of collapse. There is a concern that October 14, when the UK central bank bond-buying problem is scheduled to stop, that something terrible will happen.

      Euro is collapsing as well, but not quite as fast as the UK’s pound.

      UK doing monetary tightening and loosening at the same time. Expects this to spread elsewhere. Expects very severe recession with very severe inflation, at the same time. Productive side of the economy will be hit hard. What will stop it?

      Option that seemed to be available was to do a deal with Russians. But now with pipeline blow up, that is not available. Only option now is down the drain.

      Collapse is going badly. Now, not even close to winter. People are figuring out, “Why not take your money out now? if things clearly getting worse. No world leadership. US Federal Reserve is trying to make inflation better in the US by making the problem worse everywhere else. No leaders trying to fix the overall problem.

      Seems like mass suicide. Everyone following along. Why doesn’t Hungary just leave this failing ship?

      – – – – –

      I presume your statement “NDL has banned the maintenance of the TurkStream pipeline into SE Europe” refers to

      https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/TurkStream-Pipeline-Has-License-Revoked-As-New-Sanctions-Come-Into-Effect.html

      Dutch authorities have withdrawn the export license of the company operating the TurkStream gas pipeline from Russia to Turkey, the company, which is based in the Netherlands, said.

      South Stream Transport noted, however, that the flow of gas will continue as it applies for a new license, Reuters reported, citing the company. The revocation of the license was prompted by new EU sanctions against Russia.

      I notice a more recent article as well:

      https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/272813306/russian-gas-exports-to-eu-via-turkstream-plunge—media

      Russian gas flows to the EU via the TurkStream pipeline dropped by a quarter at the end of September compared to the end of August, the Russian newspaper Vedomosti reported on Saturday.

      • MM says:

        Yeah Gail, in “our” c9/11 posts we realized that we are in a

        Death Cult.

        Suicide because fear of death

        (from ROF as Fast would say)

  3. This is the official English translation from the Kremlin website. It is lengthy, so I will just give the link.

    http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/69465

  4. Student says:

    It seems that we (Nato) don’t want to stay calm neither a day.
    From various websites it seems that Russian troops are withdrawing from Lyman, a city in the Donesk region – if I’m not wrong – one of the regions just annexed by Russia.
    Generally speaking, it should be now a sort of invasion in the Russian territory….
    If so, this seem to be a very negative situation which could have bad consequences
    (I am referring to the situation that seems to be going from bad to worse).
    Let’s see.

    https://spravy.pravda.sk/svet/clanok/642190-online-tuhe-boje-o-lyman-cesta-kyjeva-do-nato-nie-je-podla-usa-na-programe-dna/?utm_source=pravda&utm_medium=hp-box&utm_campaign=shp_3clanok_box

    • Student says:

      (Jerusalem Post)

      “Russian bombers capable of carrying nukes detected near Finland
      The bombers, capable of carrying cruise missiles and strategic nuclear weapons, have been active in the Ukrainian war since Moscow invaded in February.” […]
      “Ukraine’s military intelligence spokesperson Vadym Skibitsky said in an interview with The Guardian on Tuesday that Kyiv assesses the threat of Moscow using tactical weapons against the country as “very high.”

      https://www.jpost.com/international/article-718618

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Frightening ideas!

      • Fast Eddy says:

        BAU almost collapsed last week… if the nukes are Plan B… you need to be ready to rock…

        When they lose control of the situation — BAU literally goes down within seconds… you get a stock and bond market implosion as the traders all hit the Sell keys on their computers… there will be a mad rampage to sell the second they realize all is lost… and once it starts there will be no stopping it

        Think about that — every company becomes worthless in seconds. Currencies go to 0 even the USD… Bonds are vapourized…. all wealth – and I do mean ALL WEALTH… is now worthless.

        How long do you think it will take before the mobs form … the power goes off… the panic sets in. Within hours…

        You need to be ready.

        • Tim Groves says:

          How ready do we need to be?

          Do you mean ready as in psychologically prepared?

          Or on good terms with our Creator?

          Or stocked up with lots of shotgun cartridges and tinned food?

          Or with a pocket full of liquorish-flavored cyanide capsules?

          • Fast Eddy says:

            To have an exit that does not involved being brutalized… raped… skinned alive – and boiled in a pot.

            How about this… for a Dream Ending…

            I have 2 high powered rifles and two 12 gauge shot guns… when the bad guys inevitably come — unload the rifles at them as they approach… then when they retreat and wait for darkness… that’s the close up action – 12 gauge is best… when all is lost… swallow 5 C-Fents… fling a couple of buckets of petrol all around the house… then have a few C-Fents ground to powder standing by … snort those … (fast acting!) … and as the bad guys get through a window and just before you drift away….

            http://real.dctc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/match2.jpg

            Ideally there would be 200kg of TNT in the house so the bad guys get blown to smithereens… but where do get that?

            Anyhow — they’ve come for the food… but that will all be burned up in the fyre… so that’s a pretty good F789 You from the grave.

        • MM says:

          As Gail hinted The Great Reset could be a synonym for monetary reset.
          The very one thing to worry about is that the “monetary system” could be massively tightened (cough).
          There are no such worries for people that are in the information loop. From what I see, people on OFW are not in it.
          From what I see the new system does not seem to be ready yet.
          And the resistance too. Sigh.

    • The four regions become part of the Russian Federation on 4/ 5 Oct. after the Duma, Federation Council and then the President agree it.

      Putin has made clear that the remaining UKR forces there will then face the full force of the Russian military.

      Russia has withdrawn the small force from Lyman for now, which is not a strategically significant place.

      • kulmthestatusquo
        kulmthestatusquo says:

        Lyman is a morally significant place. Same reason the French fought at Verdun , guarding the “Sacred Road”, using Vietnamese and Algerian troops

        Its loss is a huge moral defeat

        • A withdrawal is hardly a loss. Russia intends to take all of the Donetsk region, and no doubt it will. That does not mean that conflicts proceed by holding every foot of land at every moment. I am sure that you know better than that, as you are hardly unread, so you presumably have some clue how conflicts work.

      • banned says:

        Lyman isnt nothing.
        “With a pre-war population of over 20,000 people, Lyman has been described since the start of the Russian invasion as a key logistics and transportation hub of the east.”

        Its becoming pretty clear. Russia cant hold the whole line with its current forces wagner and the Donbass militias in the face of western supplies to Ukraine. So it protects its land bridge in the south.

        The question is what is the long term plan? There are 300k Russian troops on the way. We just saw a huge up the ante by Russia- annexation-mobilization. The west will respond in some manner. It may be pulling NATO in. It may be An attempt to develop air superiority using neighboring countries airfields. UKR is run by the pentagon. They are not running this offensive just to have it crushed by the Russian mobilization. Its not just a feel good.

        There is a plan of some sort. This is the big one. Without the drones Russian artillery is blind. Maybe those get burnt up mysteriously in large scale. Maybe your right they wont pull NATO in just yet. If you think their out of tricks… Theres going to be 300k of Russian troops soon to work out on. Who is baiting who? If those 300k turn to 50k what will Russia do? How can that happen? 70 years of black weapons development on both sides. The west throws a big chunk of non nuclear surprise surprise surprise in and continues to bolster the Ukraine armor with tech. The Polish and other “volunteers” increase. Polish armor starts showing up. Theres some funny rumors floating around about “volunteer” deployment. One “volunteer” with the right tech can kill a lot of Russian Joes.

        Maybe your right the game is over. One big bluff. I sincerely doubt it. The pushing is over its a fight now. Russia is going to have to decide eventually. The west will push this from Poland hard in lots of different ways. They will try to match the Russian deployment with all sorts of plays all of which involve Russian troops dieing. Putin said we havnt even got serious yet. That cuts two ways. Sooner or later Russia has to take out the satellites. Or bring in their new tech. If they dont -pain. I could be wrong. I hope Im wrong. Im not. Were just five minute into the first quarter.

        “they wouldnt dare” Well thats really the question isnt it? Was 70 years of posturing a bluff? I think they are bat shit crazy. Its called “not backing down”. Just like every a-hole in the pen that wouldn’t back down. All victims. Someone stole $5 from them and they went ape shit. Didnt like the way someone walked ….Thats war. Thats a fight. You put considerations of consequences aside in order to destroy. Bat shit crazy. Bat shit crazy or a punk. Thats the choice. This logic supersedes things like consideration and compassion. Consideration and compassion are consciously put aside in order to wield the power of destruction. The decision is a conscious one. The facts dont matter. Right or wrong doesnt matter. Thats the beauty of it. Its simple. Its war. Destroy the enemy or be destroyed consequence be damned. Its not such a new concept or behavior.

        You feel its not possible on a governmental level. “they wouldnt dare”. I pray your right. I am literally getting on my knees and praying every night. Im not religious but Im getting religion real fast.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Maybe, Russia has no alternative but to fight. It needs a better “deal” than it has been getting. The price for oil had been low for a long time before the Ukraine invasion. Perhaps stirring up a war would raise the price of oil. Actually, not for very long, however.

          I expect that natural gas has never been a money-maker; distribution costs are always outrageously high. Russia had been fighting with Ukraine, on and off, for years with respect to transit fees through Ukraine. Coal is also difficult to make money on.

          Russia is probably near the point where its oil production will start declining. It needs some other export that is a moneymaker. What could it do? It could try to get a better price for its natural gas by selling it to countries in the East. It probably needs help with development of its natural gas reserves that are off Russia’s north coast, in a difficult area for extraction. Those it likely can sell only at a high price. Perhaps China or some other country to the East can pay a high price. China might even be able to help with development.

          Europe is a loser, in that it can’t afford high energy prices. Turning down Russia’s fossil fuels, when such fossil fuels are the best alternative available to Europe, is simply a crazy strategy. Europe doesn’t even seem to recognize how badly it is doing. It seems to think that being a collection of developed countries in the past gives it special status, but it doesn’t.

  5. Dennis L. says:

    Inflation/deflation:

    https://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/be-prepared-for-rebalancing?did=849429-20221001&utm_campaign=todays-news_newsletter&utm_source=agriculture.com&utm_medium=email&utm_content=100122&cid=849429&mid=98421296773&lctg=123579842

    From successful Farmer: basically commodity prices are going down, sell this fall’s harvest now, avoid the rush later.

    Loss of natural gas to Germany may be deflationary for farm land; no fertilizer no yield, no rent, bummer.

    Dennis L.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The article also suggests using “put options” to prevent being hurt by falling food crop prices.

      I am afraid you are right about,

      “Loss of natural gas to Germany may be deflationary for farm land; no fertilizer no yield, no rent, bummer.”

      People tend not to think about the problem, this way.

      • Betcha Bill Gates will get plenty for his own farmlands!
        https://fortune.com/2022/09/30/bill-gates-telling-people-stop-eating-meat-buying-houses-not-solve-climate-change/

        Bill Gates says telling people to stop eating meat and buying big houses will never solve climate change
        BYCHLOE TAYLOR Fortune
        September 30, 2022 at 7:45 AM EDT

        Gates, the fifth richest person in the world, has long publicized his interest in bringing the climate crisis under control—by writing a book titled How to Avoid a Climate Disaster, advocating for green innovation, and investing in the space himself.

        Although Gates has a long history of working to alleviate the effects of climate change, the Microsoft cofounder stressed in Thursday’s episode of Zero that “not that many people are prepared to be worse off because of climate requirements.”

        “Anyone who says that we will tell people to stop eating meat, or stop wanting to have a nice house, and we’ll just basically change human desires, I think that that’s too difficult,” he said on Thursday. “You can make a case for it. But I don’t think it’s realistic for that to play an absolutely central role.”

        Possible solutions

        • Dennis L. says:

          A guess:

          Capital is cheap for Gates, he is well aware of advances in robotics; his land will be tilled by autonomous tractors. Deere and others are well along with these ideas.

          A farmer does not do much farming anymore, much of the expertise is “farmed” out.

          Dennis L.

          • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
            Gail Tverberg says:

            Good luck to him. He will still need diesel and spare parts. The system is already on the edge of collapse.

          • Withnail says:

            Robots, AI, space launches and genetic engineering do not solve our actual problem, which is lack of affordable energy.

          • complex agricultural machines require a lot of energy input, both in manufacturing and use.

            they must be produced on a large scale, and fuelled on a large scale. Robots do not deliver free lunches to anyone.

            The purpose of such machines can only be food production. That food must be cheap enough for people to buy with the wages they earn at other forms of employment.

            But all other employment also requires massive (cheap) energy input, which is no longer available.

            And if those ‘other forms of employment’ don’t produce sufficient wages, then no level of machine input will cheapen food to the level where they CAN afford it.

            Food is just another form of ‘energy distribution’ just like coal oil and gas. All around us, the global economic infrastructure is collapsing because the energy production/distribution system is breaking down.

            This is why foodbanks have appeared in the last 20 years. Jobs are not paying sufficient wages to convert into food (and other essential living) purchases. Millions of people are on food aid, or literally starving.

          • Lidia17 says:

            I don’t think he wants to farm it in the conventional sense.. I figure he wants to use it for experimentation.

            Remember, Gates comes from the “technology cannot fail—it can only be failed” mindset.

          • Withnail says:

            ‘Capital’ is useless if he can’t get tyres.

        • farmland is worth only what can be extracted from it

          if that’s with mechanised production, you get high value

          if it’s with muscle power alone, you get low value

          there are no alternatives, no matter what Gates paid for it.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            norm … I am running into quite a few comments from you — saying the same thing over and over…

            Can you come off the gas on the regurgitation and instead answer some of our questions

            • eddy

              i don’t read anywhere near the total comments floated on OFW (not enough life left to live at my age)

              but skimming down those i have looked at this morning, the eddy-ratio appears to be (at least) 20:1

              which is wayyyyyy beyond my forecast during 2021 that you would reach comment parity by 2022.
              It also means, that in general terms you are talking to yourself.

              Now you may be convinced that what you have to say is critical to the survival of the human race (you’re not the only one to have that problem), but don’t expect everyone to sit up at the sound of your dog whistle.

          • Tim Groves says:

            He wants to “re-wild” most of it, Norman. It’s totally understandable. Not growing much agricultural produce on it is a “plus”.

            The buffalo can roam free again and maybe some mammoths and sabre-toothed tigers. And the resulting food shortages will help bring the world population down below the target of 500 million.

            If you are an elitist master-of-the-Universe type, what’s not to like?

            • i’ve always found myself just $1 short to become a member of the elitist group

              so i decided to start my own, with a lower cash threshold. I am prepared to consider you for membership. (cash in advance of course)

              that said Tim, i still find myself a little surprised that you still go along with the nonsense that ‘reducing world population’ is some elitist grand plan, presumably to allow them to enjoy global assets without the encumbrance of plebs such as you or I.

              unless you were offering a little irony–difficult to tell on here sometimes.

  6. Student says:

    Putin’s speech

    Here you can find a written translation of his speech.
    I think that with deepl or google translator you can read it.

    https://casadelsole.tv/putin-una-sfida-per-tutti-discorso-integrale-30-settembre-2022/

    • Thank you ..
      A part of his speech

      West is ready to override anything in order to preserve that neocolonial system that allows it to swallow, in essence, to plunder the world thanks to the power of the dollar and the technological diktat, to collect a real tribute from humanity , to subtract the main sources of undeserved wealth, to obtain the hegemon’s rent. The maintenance of this rent is their key motive, real and completely selfish. This is why total de-sovereignization is in their best interest. Hence their aggression against independent states, against traditional values ​​and cultures and their attempts to undermine international and integration processes beyond their control, [against] new world currencies and centers of technological development.

      The ruling elites of some states voluntarily agree to do so, voluntarily agree to become vassals; others are corrupted, intimidated. And if they fail, then they destroy entire states, leaving behind humanitarian catastrophes, disasters, ruins, millions of ruined and mutilated human lives, terrorist enclaves, disaster zones, protectorates, colonies and semi-colonies. They don’t care, as long as they get their profits

      One does not need to wonder why it is not told here by our journalists

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Putin understands the problem. No one dares to tell the sad story here. The world economy is falling apart. If some other places are falling apart more quickly than the US’s economy, that is to the benefit of the US.

      • reante says:

        In Norman’s defense this excerpt does read like a Hitler speech Or a Michael Hudson essay for that matter, or Chomsky, or Giovanni Arrighi, Wallerstein: Putin is talking World System Theory language here, which is the intellectual province of what’s known as True Progressivism, the True Left, or National Socialism. We heard it in Giorgio’s powerful speech the other day too. We heard it in Tulsi Gabbard’s speech at CPAC the other month. It’s the

        It’s the cutting-edge anti-globalization discourse that was on the streets of Seattle in 1999. The Progress Myth is powered by keeping the dulled masses off of the cutting edge and at the back, on the spine of the knife. For the masses, the national socialist anti-globalization (anti- international capital for Hitler) comes after the fact and at the end of globalization, because that’s how manufactured consent works.

        Evil is the placement of truths in service of a greater falsehood. The progress myth is powered by the placements of increasing amounts of truth still in service of the same greater falsehood (State totalitarianism).

        The dual functions of the coming worldwide national socialist ‘revolution’ is firstly to best deal, structurally, with catastrophic circumstances, and secondly, to offset as much as possible the psychological hardship of collapse by way exceeding everybody’s rock-bottom expectations for the political future (in the Great Reset misdirection play), thereby helping people to remain constructive and have something positive to focus on: national socialism is, after all, a left-libertarian, traditional conservative politics wielded with a no-nonsense disposition and a big stick; a return to frontier politics. Only the strong survive.

        • Bobby says:

          Politics. The reality without morality:

          Societies unspoken subliminal promise to it’s citizens, which you may be conditioned to; or choose to believe is that ‘‘your needs will be met’

          (UNLESS the causes and conditions to enact clause catch 22 are reached or otherwise met instead).

          AKA , when a wall is hit or TSuffHTF!

          Clause 22: Stuff is ran out of, or we must complete with other groups for their stuff in order to maintain cohesion, which controlling factions of in your present assigned group/society/country/empire find unreasonable. In the situation above, flow the mandate ‘survival of the fittest, first up best dressed, do as I say don’t do as I do. Mine’s bigger than yours, so buck up unless yours is bigger than mine; and if so, forget i mentioned it, because I didn’t realise unless naturally there’s nothing to lose anymore anyway, so..SMASH 💥 King Hit successfully deployed! game over, thanks for all your stuff. Oh sorry I did not know you were religious….h well nothing personal

          Above describes about as far as we’ve got despite a few individuals or small groups who’ve reached some form of enlightenment, there is just to much chimpanzee in homo serpents serpents.

        • Replenish says:

          Great explanation. Manufactured consent for the masses, obvious tells for the skeptical observer and triggers for the programmed individuals. I have special procedures to cope with the triggers which take the form of alter ego, fear anchors and sticky thoughts. My routine is to acknowledge these troubles as they surface throughout the day and let them pass on harmlessly before they arouse any emotion or compulsive action. Repeating the mantra “I cancel all contracts with negative entities” has been helpful for sleeping and stressful encounters.

          I visited the local fox den saying that when the right person figures out their game that they won’t know what hit them. I offered no guarantee of personal involvement but I provided ample stimulation for the agents who then reacted accordingly giving away their secret decoder tricks. I am told that the tactics used were akin to how the military tests informants, a complete breakdown and rebuild. If you are strong and survive you are recruited.

          I learned how all this works after doing some agitating against a EPA designated top polluter in the late 90’s. The overt targeting didn’t start until I began the erratic retaliation and payed house calls. Up to that point it was more of a honey trap towards becoming the #1 cause head. The foxes told me “the socialists are trying to recruit you,” lol. I observed active informants at one of the State Capital OWS encampments. Often the left hand doesn’t know what the right hand is doing.. think of it like a panopticon prison with a single handler pulling the levers for access, setting appointments and providing data for other street level players. Self-organizing with a “higher power.” Most people are dead meat for these kinds of programs. Schwab allows for “isolated pockets of self-sustaining community” that opt out of the Great Reset. That’s a deal. I accept that offer. Thanks Klaus.

          • reante says:

            Thanks friend. Indeed. It’s just a treehouse club: say the password (crack the code) and they’re obliged to drop the front. In fact they can’t wait to. As I’ve said before, they’re all for true humans returning to their origins as landraces. Those are genepools they want to be breeding back to on the DL. They damn sure ain’t tapping into reante’s bloodlines. Ain’t happening. Running a tight ship. Lol.

      • reante says:

        Gail, got a comment in the folder, thanks. 🙂

  7. Fast Eddy says:

    hahaha… a brain disorder? a disease?

    funny how it can be cured by controlling what you stuff down your maw… and not buying an e-Bike.

    https://t.me/DowdEdward/1180

  8. Kosta says:

    BAU 2050 net 0, most accurate representation on the internet of this renewable energy based economy.

  9. Fast Eddy says:

    ER Physician Dr. Joseph Fraiman Finds COVID Vaccines Have 1-in-800 Risk of Serious Adverse Events

    “The bottom line takeaway is there is a 1-in-800 adverse event [risk] over all these [COVID] vaccines…vs 1-in-a-Million for the vaccines we’ve been familiar with for decades”

    Clip: https://rumble.com/v1m74r6-er-physician-dr.-joseph-fraiman-finds-covid-vaccines-have-1-in-800-risk-of-.html

    Study: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4125239

    The CovIDIOTS will claim 6.5M lives have been saved by injecting Dog Shit…

    Let’s say 5 billion+ have been injected with the Dog Shit… can someone do the numbers on 1-800 … (actually given I know around a dozen Dog Shit F789ed people .. and there is no way I know 800 people… this is far too low)

    • nikoB says:

      Karl Denninger puts it at 1 in 30 have an adverse reaction that is serious.

      • reante says:

        That strikese as a very good general estimate from Karl, although when including ‘bad outcomes’ of existing disease (disease gets noticeably worse) and complications from medical procedures, i’d say the proportion is quite a bit higher.And those are just the short-to-medium-term effects.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          I’m wondering what the ratio has to be before the MOREONS realized they’ve f789ed themselves hahaha…

          Do they have a hissy fit? Do they go on the warpath?

          norm – let’s say 1 out of every 2 people who injected the Dog Shit was to drop with a severe injury – or dead.

          Of course that will never happen………….. so let’s just do this hypothetically… if that happened… what would you think? what would you do?

          Would you want to stab anyone in particular? Keeping in mind they also told you to inject the Dog Shit into the grand kids and you drove them to the pop up clinic multiple times….

      • Fast Eddy says:

        The reflects what I am seeing.

  10. Fast Eddy says:

    Eurozone Inflation Spikes to 10%, Ex Energy 6.4%. Germany 10.9%. From Temporary Inflation mid-2021 to Runaway Inflation

    https://wolfstreet.com/2022/09/30/eurozone-inflation-spikes-to-10-in-germany-10-9-without-energy-6-4-from-temporary-inflation-mid-2021-to-runaway-inflation/

    Temporary?

  11. Fast Eddy says:

    https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8702df46-baff-41ef-8ad1-d6355f6af242_1002x818.png

    Underlying Inflation Just Isn’t Slowing Down at All

    Fed’s Favored Inflation Index Says: Underlying Inflation Just Isn’t Slowing Down at All

    Just briefly here: The Fed uses the “core PCE” inflation index, released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, as yardstick for its inflation target. This “core PCE” index – the overall PCE inflation index minus the volatile food and energy components – is therefore crucial in the current rate-hike scenario, amid red-hot inflation, when everyone wants to know when inflation is finally going to cry uncle.

    Some folks thought that happened in July, when the month-to-month “core PCE” inflation slowed to “0%” (rounded down).

    Turns out this much-ballyhooed month-to-month “core PCE” reading in July of “0%” was just a one-off event. In August, according to the BEA today, the core-PCE inflation index jumped by 0.6%, same as the multi-decade records in June 2022 and in April 2021 (all rounded to 0.6%). As Powell had said during the FOMC press conference: Underlying inflation is just not slowing down.

    https://wolfstreet.com/2022/09/30/feds-favored-inflation-index-says-underlying-inflation-just-isnt-slowing-down/

    Why would it slow down when we are depleting what’s left of our cheap energy…

    • yes the world’s remaining cheap energy resources are depleting slowly.

      this depletion is being filled in by not as cheap resources, so that the overall resource use remains near its all time high, in the example of oil at 100 mbpd.

      but the “real economy” of goods and services can’t be foooled by financial tricks, so the self organizing global economic system has to adjust itself somehow to slightly less energy flowing through the system year after year.

      this adjustment probably didn’t have to be by inflation, but it’s no surprise that higher inflation has appeared, since inflation has historically been a common mechanism for economic decline.

      in this scenario, inflation won’t “slow down” until the secondary financial economy has shrunk itself to become more level with the primary energy economy.

      if the real economy shrinks quickly, such as by severe recession or depression, then it will become more level with the financial economy.

      such a quick leveling of the “two economies” might then allow the self organizing economy to stop inflating.

      otherwise without such recession/depression, elevated inflation could be an ongoing chronic economic condition.

      hyperinflation remains a possibility, but since energy resources are depleting very slowly, the “adjustment” of hyperinflation seems like too big of an economic response to this slow energy decline.

      • as too much money chases depleting energy, hyperinflation becomes certain.

        • Withnail says:

          Yeah. It seems to me that we have a huge elaborate financial system left over from the days when there was lots of energy to make all kinds of things happen around the world.

          Now there’s no growth and hence there can really be no interest paid on anything. As the real economy contracts, there is far too much ‘money’ floating around.

          At the end of the Roman Empire, the financial system was simply ignored. Coins existed in the millions but were no longer used. Even in the 300s, taxes began to be demanded in grain not money and it was made a crime to stop farming if your father was a farmer.

          Nobody wanted to farm because the land was exhausted and you could barely produce enough to feed yourself let alone provide sacks of grain to the government. Famines were reported everywhere, including Britain according to Bede.

          • that pretty much sums it up Withnail

            wages can only be created by changing one energy form into another

            the alternative is infinetely increasing debt

            • Withnail says:

              It just occurred to me that we are doing exactly the same thing today with these taxes on energy providers the European governments are putting in place.

              It looks like the Roman government of the time put the blame on food producers for the problems, today you hear a lot about how it’s all the energy companies’ fault.

              Next we’ll make it illegal for anyone to declare bankruptcy and stop supplying energy.

            • energy availability underpins everything no matter what era you are in

              all activity is governed by it

          • Dennis L. says:

            Insightful, thanks.

            Dennis L.

        • reante says:

          “as too much money chases depleting energy, hyperinflation becomes certain.”

          Not if the vast majority of ‘money’ is notional – as in debt. Which it is. If debts cannot be serviced en masse due to too-high an interest burden, the ponzi debt structure collapses and the notional money flows with it, suddenly leaving the opposite – not enough money chasing too much existing stock, which in turn collapses production, placing lower, hard ceilings on future output.

          Catastrophic deflation first, then hyperinflation. When talking about the dollar, anyway. Most other currencies will go straight to extremely high inflation’s and hyperinflations as the dollar deflates.

          Deflation first of reserve currencies is always preferable to the elites because they are savers, and savers win big during deflationary spirals. That’s how we can know. 🙂

  12. Fast Eddy says:

    she murdered herself… actually … nobody ‘had to’ do f789 all… if the govt said here is a syringe full of Dog Shit – inject or else you can’t go to our clinical trials… and you’d see loads of other people dropping after injecting the Dog Shit…

    And you go ahead and inject the Dog Shit anyway — well F789 you.

    Do not pray for her. She got EXACTLY what she deserves.

    At this stage of the game anyone injecting has ZERO excuses when it goes wrong.

    You murdered yourself.

    https://2ndsmartestguyintheworld.substack.com/p/she-was-murdered

    https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F77f645c3-d6f0-4c27-a66c-26c55b0c51ab_1170x1842.jpeg

  13. Tim Groves says:

    Bad Cattitude posted the following, and I’m presenting this for weekend entertainment and also as evidence the jabs also cause people to bonkers—as much as it is unfortunate that this lady has been damaged, she is obviously a willing participant.

    It’s a clip of Canadian actress Jennifer Gibson with Bell’s palsy.

    BC says:

    “you can even outright damage people for life and they will be so raddled with stockholm syndrome that they will ramble that they would happily do it again, not even to “keep people safe” but so that “they could see people” in open and telling admission that they will gladly sacrifice freedom and bodily integrity upon the altar of “buying back a right to free association that should already have been inalienable” when faced with authoritarian pressure. (asch was an optimist)

    (seriously, watch this through to the end, it’s chilling)”

    https://twitter.com/eclipsethis2003/status/1575531616469798912?s=20&t=Gls8YW7nA9XygjdTlecOeA&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

    • Lastcall says:

      In many ways the injection ritual is like the education system where them that know best inject you with the narrative and off people go thinking they are well educated.

      I had the misfortune to attend NZ schools and Uni at a time when everything was closely modelled on the UK. We sang God save the Q, a national anthem equally asinine, and a had a history taught that blinkered and mis-informed to order.

      It takes years to shake that out of your head. Most don’t. Its why school attendence is so carefully monitored. Teachers use to be able to terrorise their students. I think it goes the other way now!

      So its only now when I see commentary from the old school sherry drinkin gits that I understand how so many Anzacs could have been sacrificed at Gallipolli. The conceit is palpable.

      “Old Blighty’ indeed.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I’ve already seen that twice — but I’ll watch again … it never gets old 🙂

      It’s fun to watch a MOREON behave like a MOREON.

      This is how I feel about her

      https://youtu.be/loekadIJ68c

  14. Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
    Gail Tverberg says:

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-Is-Flaring-Less-And-Keeping-Natural-Gas-In-The-Ground.html
    Russia Is Flaring Less And Keeping Natural Gas In The Ground

    When the breakup between Russia and the European Union began earlier this year, one of the reasons for the severity of the EU’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was the assumption that Russia could not afford for its gas exports to drop.

    The assumption was an enduring one for oil and gas both. A number of analysts toured the media, arguing that if production at an oil or gas field is suspended, this field eventually risks becoming unproductive forever.

    While this is a valid argument overall, Gazprom appears to have found a way to avoid permanent loss of gas production, and it’s not flaring, either. In fact, flaring in Russia—a major “flarer”—is down.

    . . .

    Because demand for natural gas is highly seasonal in nature, Gazprom has organized production at its biggest fields in such a way as to be able to increase or reduce it in relatively short order.

    My thoughts: It may very well be possible to ramp natural gas production up and down, according to the season. I think that natural gas may be different than oil, in this regard.

    But this is not an excuse for Europe not to build storage capacity for winter. Europeans certainly cannot count on US LNG ships to provide a whole lot of gas in winter. It is a lot more efficient to build gas pipelines and LNG ships that are used year-around than to build sufficient capacity to leave mostly empty in summer. Delivery costs are very high for natural gas, often exceeding extraction costs.

    Also, historically, natural gas has been a very “low margin” product. If Russia made money, I would expect that the vast majority of it came from its oil exports, not its natural gas exports. Russia wouldn’t worry much about losing natural gas exports to Europe, if the price it had been getting on its sales to Europe were chronically too low.

    Furthermore, Russia could see that Europe could not afford to pay the high price for natural gas that Russia really needed. It would be better off leaving the gas in the ground, to sell later to a country that could make more efficient use of its natural gas, later. China might qualify; or perhaps India, Viet Nam or even Japan. Using a lot of natural gas for heating and cooling has no long-run benefit; manufacturing is a better long-run use for natural gas.

    • Sam says:

      what about using it to produce electricity?

    • Student says:

      They are probably waiting that the new pipeline with China will be ready.
      In case someone will make it blow up, in that case, I don’t think it will end up like in Europe where people are happy to welcome collapse.

    • cassandraclub – Cassandra waarschuwde de inwoners van Troje voor het houten paard dat de Grieken achterlieten. Tevergeefs.
      cassandraclub says:

      I still think maybe Russian gas production has peaked and is falling, or will be falling in a couple of years.

      Putins next speech could be:
      “Why waste this precious resource on Europe? Lets cut the export and let them starve in cold darkness.”

    • D. Stevens says:

      “…Gazprom appears to have found a way to avoid permanent loss of gas production..” Any chance they are flaring less because the well are less productive and the gas is well on the way to depletion? What’s more likely? They found some new method or there’s just less gas available so less flaring? I’m told not to worry… there’s still 50 years left… as if that’s a long time. Don’t worry citizens, we have plenty of gas.. it’s just too bad the NS pipelines are sabotaged so you can’t have any but once we get back to normal no worries.

      • cassandraclub – Cassandra waarschuwde de inwoners van Troje voor het houten paard dat de Grieken achterlieten. Tevergeefs.
        cassandraclub says:

        [q]there’s still 50 years left… as if that’s a long time[/q]
        But what if that is a lie?

  15. I AM THE MOB says:

    “In the very end, civilizations perish because they listen to their politicians and not to their poets.”

    ― Jonas Mekas

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Actually, civilizations perish because their populations rise too high for their resources.

      Also, part of the problem may be degrading resources such as exhausted soil and deforestation. Fluctuations in climate may provide the final push over, if a civilization is already reaching a limit.

    • roses are red
      violets are blue
      FF far from dead
      tonight baby, bAU

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Excerpt:

      Majority of the artists that I used to collaborate with in real life here, in the Chicago theatre community, do not read my Substack. There’s an odd homogeny among the entertainment industry and it has done its fair share of toxic culture assimilation, but none so bizarre as the upholding of the covid narrative and the erosion of free speech in the form of cancel culture. Like, what? We’re supposed to be the pioneers of unpopular opinions. But the establishment leveraged the entertainment industry’s empathy and now artists are all in, I guess?, on seeing it through and clamoring over one another for who is gonna take home the Oscar for most conscientious person. We went from performance to performative; from art to artifice.

      And then, the most extraordinary thing occurred: new friends (who weren’t artists per se) and I joined together and created this parody of Sound of Silence and it was a delightful experience.

  16. Fast Eddy says:

    Russian President Putin:

    – We’re witnessing sheer satanism in West
    – Do we want our children to be offered operations on sex changes? It’s unacceptable!
    – Our future is different. We’re fighting for a great, historic Russia.

    https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/40138

    This is Very True https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/40149

    Haha https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/40155

    bit disappointed in Tommy – he’s not running any pedo tranny stuff these days…

  17. “ITS COMING APART.” The Global Economy Is COLLAPSING And Currencies Are DYING. Mannarino
    7,533 views · 1 hour ago
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H5-pXyGusfc

    Greg has just are of the puzzle correct….but not the whole pie.
    Claims there will be a big reduction in people and more control…
    That’s part of it….too bad he’s not plugged in to OFW

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The global economy is crashing with no end in sight. Heading toward a total meltdown of the financial system. The US manufacturing sector is cratering, based on the Chicago PMI. Ms. Brainard (vice chair of the Federal Reserve, says the Federal Reserve will not pull back from its course. According to the Fed Reserve’s preferred measure, inflation is actually accelerating.

      According to Greg Mannarino, the problem isn’t a rate issue; it is an inadequate currency issue. More Americans today are living paycheck to paycheck, than ever before. Something is wrong here. We are funding a war with no end in sight. Raising interest rates makes it harder for consumers to afford to buy cars and homes.

      We are being told that consumer sentiment has surged to a 5-month high. Is this believable? Citizens are being crushed by the high prices and high interest rates. The global economy is in free-fall, and the central banks are not yet done destroying the economy. Raising the interest rates will burst the big debt bubble, bringing about supply chain disruption.

      After the debt bubble burst occurs, everything will stop! There will be a credit freeze; money won’t work any more. Basic resources to live will not be available. Marshall law of some type will be instituted. Then leaders will institute a new system of their own choosing.

      There is no greater threat to life than this debt bubble. [I might disagree: Lack of cheap energy of the right kind is an even greater threat.] Story the economy is doing well is increasingly unbelievable. Do politicians and central banks really have the best interest of people in mind? We need to resist the false stories being told that the central banks are hard at work, fixing the world economy.
      – – – – –
      Not as good a talk as Michael Cowan’s talk, a few days ago. The debt bubble bursting is definitely a major issue, as he says. He never mentions QT vs QE, or countries with falling currencies needing to sell US Treasuries to try to raise the level of their currencies. Also, no minion of pension problems as interest rates rise.

      • Gail, a big thank you for doing a summary of his broadcast!
        That was better than his video and Greg does post regularly like every day and it gets repetitive.
        He is entertaining and at least knows part of it.
        Same for Michael Cowan

        • Fast Eddy says:

          If he really wants to increase his popularity … he should invite Musk on … and they should both sniff a gram of High Grade Bolivian Blow and once they are out of their minds….

          Bring in the Dancing Girls (no trannies…) out and onto the laps… disco ball and techno music…

          Then afterwards they can snort another gram and Get Down to Business and talk — very quickly and with epic animation — about how f789ed we are

          To be honest… I am surprised there is not a YT show that does this sort of thing… I think Jim Cramer could pull this off… he’s known to enjoy his kookaine.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Greg looks like he’s got a serious coke/meth addiction + he’s likely dabbling in C-Fent and powdered heroin… He’s got bad clammy skin… sure signs of losing it.

        That’s cuz he’s stumbled upon the truth. There is no way out… They even injected billions trying to summons Lucifer upon us — but that’s not transpired…

        Are they getting ready the nukes?

        Anything is better than an uncontrolled collapse of BAU and ROF. Anything.

        Just hope that you’re in a location that has at least one warhead inbound.

        Queenstown is not ideal… it’s hardly worth dropping a bomb on .. population is tiny…

        Maybe I need to load up the Bat Mobile and head for Christchurch … 500k pop might meet the criteria for a warhead.

        Please way to go — one second you are alive then you are vapourized.

        ROF is not a good death.

        Oh btw – Embers of War — the Japanese killed one of the senior French regional governors in the Nam… and they gang-raped his wife. Doomie Prepping is a mistake. It will end in horror.

  18. Christopher says:

    Apparently, the swedish marine had a ship in the area of NS explosion sites from thursday to saturday, before the explosion (in swedish):
    https://www.dn.se/sverige/svenska-marinen-hade-fartyg-pa-plats-fore-explosionerna/

    Also USS Kearsage was circling these waters at the same time. I found some comments on this which were interesting (in swedish):
    https://www.flashback.org/sp81837082
    https://www.flashback.org/sp81837925

    There is also an older conspiracy theory involving the Swedish military, concerning the sinking of MS Estonia in 94, resulting in 800 passengers freezing/drowning to death. The Swedish military was suspected to help Nato smuggle Soviet(Russian) military equipment from the Baltic states on MS Estonia. The russkies sent a submarine to target the ship… Well, it’s a CT, I don’t know if it’s true, but given the swedish governments suspicious behaviour following this incident, for instance, avoiding a thorough investigation, I would not be surprised if it’s true. 
     
    In short, It looks likely that the swedish military was involved in some way in NS explosion.

    If the russkies did it, they had to be extremely cunning.
    .  
    The swedish supreme commander at the pride festival :
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRFXo6wqVqA

    Maybe to appear soft? The russkies will never take him seriously. Clever move. I hope the US will get all of the blame.

    • MM says:

      I have Intel of a receipt for 3 tonnes of TNT for Gazprom dated 2.8.2001.
      for “purpose of delivery” they wrote:
      “Just in case”

    • houtskool says:

      James Bond got into a pipeline. My bet is on MI6.

      Look, a squirrell!

      • Hubbs says:

        I thought it was an eagle.
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gP92j-uEnps

        But my question about the Ukraine war is whether either side really has the fuel and logistics to actually run anything more than a very limited conventional war. Not only that, a question of manpower and the need for unpopular conscription on both sides. The NATO supplied tanks and vehicles won’t do well in the mud during the upcoming rainy season. (70 ton Abrams and Leopard tanks vs lighter 50 ton Russian T-72s or T-90s .)
        Does this make more provocative inflammatory acts of sabotage even more necessary, eg, false flag type missile strikes against school houses and civilians in order to stoke calls for stepping up the war?

    • Student says:

      Another interpretation could be that we have to consider that Nato allies were obviously all informed of the sabotage (in case Nato did, of course).
      So it is natural to think that, being a Nato ally, ”I (Sweden) go in my waters to control that the sabotage is going on as agreed…”

  19. Fast Eddy says:

    Is there any false flag that norm didn’t buy into … he’s the perfect stooge!

  20. Arnaud Plume says:

    About 9/11, I’ve read here some posts that suggest there were no planes on WTC1 & 2. May I suggest you to hear the story of some survivors.

    I remember some details of the story of Stanley Prainmnath (WTC2 – 81st floor) & he clearly saw one plane going right into the direction of his building, he then jump under his desk and put his life in the hands of the lord and miraculously survived.

    Just google his name on youtube and hear one of his testimony, it’s really impressive. I believe his story, there was a plane…

    • Lastcall says:

      They were impressive planes; they went right through the building and out the other side.
      Their light alloy wings, designed for minimum weight vs strength, took out concrete and steel.
      In some video’s they appeared out of nowhere, about halfway towards the buildings.
      I don’t believe his story, its too impressive, and its still on bull-tube.

      Its a smorgasboard of choices out there.
      Choose wisely.

    • reante says:

      Arnaud

      While there may be other ‘no planes’ explanations, the one that I adhere to is that they were missiles without warheads (or perhaps undersized warheads) and daylight 3-D projectors mounted to them projecting an imperfect image of airliners. This would be consistent with what Stanley witnessed.

      What do you make of the many ‘Pilots for Truth’ who insist that airliners cannot make such banking turns at such speed at sea level?

    • Fred says:

      Building 7 wasn’t hit by anything, but fell down by itself into its own footprint after a small fire. Remarkable!

      • Fred,
        I was dismayed to read so much cognitive dissonance on this subject even here. People went out of their way to avoid the subject of WTC7.
        So let’s see some facts (for more details, you can read here: https://centerforaninformedamerica.com/september11/)

        – In the long history of skyscrapers, many buildings have been hit by planes or missiles, many buildings have burnt, fell in an earthquake etc. None of them fell exactly on their footprint, unless professionally demolished. So we have 3 exceptions, all happening in the same place, in the same day.

        – WTC7 was not hit by anything and there were only minor fires reported.

        – There was another building between WTC7 and WTC 1 and 2 that collapsed. That building was unaffected.

        – Here is an example of a skyscraper fire that burnt for 24 hours out of control and even had the top floor collapsing. And yet the building remained standing… (https://apnews.com/article/877f4fb30f790292f6ef101454743ca8)

        So in conclusion, shame on you for not believing the official story!

        “Unless we each conform, unless we obey orders, unless we follow our leaders blindly, there is no possible way we can remain free.” – Major Frank Burns, MASH

        • Tsubion says:

          – WTC7 was not hit by anything and there were only minor fires reported.

          That’s not true.

          Massive chunks of incendiary debris crashed into building 7.

          I thought everyone knew this… but obviously not.

          People simply repeat the script from early documentaries on the subject and the lie spreads like wildfire and becomes ingrained in the minds of the repeaters.

          This is how urban legends are formed.

          But the missing information is available for anyone to discover… with a little effort.

          • reante says:

            Tsubion

            “Massive chunks of incendiary debris.”

            That’s a gross mischaracterization of visual evidence made in a context requiring, as you well know, the most exacting standards. The massive chunks were not incendiary. Look up the word if you need to. If you want to talk anslyzeany structural damage done by massive chunks then that’s fine. If you want to talk about fire that’s fine.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I’m stuck on two things:

              1. How did massive I-Beams end up across the street from the towers.

              2. Where did this missile come from? And who took and released the video?
              https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/47272

              Can anyone answer these questions or is everyone now pulling a norm?

            • reante says:

              To answer your question the best I know how, I came to the wild conclusion that the twin towers were largely disintegrated by getting their electrons stripped from the top-down. From low-orbit space. Electron stripping is an extremely explosive process, much more explosive, practically speaking, than thermal TNT or thermite or nanothermite. Explosives guys say it would have taken at least 100,000 tons of TNT to explode each tower but even then the explosion would have looked very different than the explosive banana-peeling we saw.

              The I-beams and crosshatches of structural steel beams were ejected because the disintegration (dustification) of the towers was incomplete. Concrete is obviously easier to strip electrons from than steel, and when stripping from above horizontally oriented materials (concrete slabs) are easier to disintegrate (more surface area to volume) than vertical materials (steel beams), right? The DEW’s beam (best guess is positron-electron annihilation beam and there’s a reason for that) is a wavefront.

              All waves, like water follow the path of least resistance. Structural steel columns are stacked end to end one on top of the other. When enough resistance had built up against the part of the wavefront that was disintegrating a 1000ft or whatever steel column from the top-down, the wavefront around that column had advanced beyond it to the next concrete slab below, which, when it explosively disintegrated, seen the support column above it flying sideways from the impact, at which point the point of the DEW’s wavefront that was slowed by the column was able to ‘reset’ and catch up.

          • banned says:

            Three building come down into their footprints at freefall on the same day that the pentagon gets hit by a ? and calls it a plane and you are talking “chunks”?

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Here’s all we need to know on Building 7.

            I highly recommend the first video – you can clearly here very loud explosions:

            https://www.ae911truth.org/evidence/videos/video/12-wtc-7-sound-evidence-for-explosions

      • Tsubion says:

        What caused the fire Fred?

        And the damage across several floors?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Ya and it wasn’t even hit by a missile – like the Pentagon.

        No wonder they didn’t find any debris like jet engines seats or bodies at the Pentagon!

    • gpdawson2016
      gpdawson2016 says:

      Dear Mr. Plume, here on OFW you can believe what you wish until the music stops playing and then, by God, you’d better find a chair. 😁

      • Bobby says:

        Play us a song guitar, string man and sing us a river tonight
        We’ll we’re all in the mode of our melodies, to keep us feeling alright

    • Fast Eddy says:

      He could be an actor… it happens.. a lot

  21. Fast Eddy says:

    DEATHshots

    Record Deaths in Australia from COVID-19 Despite 96.4% of 16+ Fully Vaxxed; Despite the fact that the population of Australia is nearly universally vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2

    https://palexander.substack.com/p/record-deaths-in-australia-from-covid

    Ya but how many million did the vax save!

  22. MM says:

    I ‘d like to add a topic to Turchin.
    You could say a civilization collapsed.
    You could get your ideas from left overs of matter.

    From what I see through the books that were handed down to us for about 400 years I state the follwing:

    OFW is basically obsolete.

    The decay of a civilization does not start with resource depletion.
    It starts with mental health depletion.
    There are many topics for that : central bank creation, taxation, state creation, we and them, religious things and so on.

    Basically everything will start to fall apart when the people in the civilization do not have enough mental power to understand what holds this thing together.
    After a while resource depletion will kick in but that is way way too late because the mental state of the civilization already basically is “brain dead”.

    You could say that at that point the simulation switches to “standby mode”.
    Let it run down. There are more interesting fields of research to investigate. What is happening in “the next” experiment.
    The standby mode actually is caused by the law “You shall not kill”.

    I can not exactly pin down that point but I can say that Turchin misses a severe issue:
    A civilization does not end at a certain point in time.
    Certain aspects of the civilization die at certain points in time.
    What we see later is “a marker” but it does not qualify for analyzing the death because the poison was inside the civilization for quite some time.
    We do not have many records of people writing “uhm something is going severely wrong here”.

    We have records of “safe and effective” for all governments that somewhat managed to get some things written.

    • Dennis L. says:

      MM, I think you are on to something.

      Dennis L.

    • Cromagnon says:

      Spot on!

      Those of us at the cave mouth fully concur with your assessment.

      The Calhoun rat experiment was a harbinger.

      • NomadicBeer says:

        What about the Asche experiment? Or the Stanford prison experiment? Or…

        The point is, people (as a group) never learn. The Greeks believed in predestination and the only argument against that is “but my feelz!”. So we knew for at least 2500 years the nature of humanity and civilization.

        Sorry, it is what it is.

        • Tsubion says:

          We are currently ruled by “but my feelz!”

          A deep look into the human psyche right now reveals severe Stockholm Syndrome, self-diagnosis of severe mental illness laced with schizo tendencies, egomania, narcisism, mulitple personality disorder, binge comsumption of everything from junk food to Netflix, body disphoria, bizarre sexual practices, acceptance of extremely taboo behavior as “progress” etc etc etc.

          The biological robots are going insane. They’re adopting coping mechanisms beyond regular alchohol intake and antidepressants.

          What next?

          Candied Fent?

          • Fast Eddy says:

            C-Fent!

            And mummies gathering for a play date with pop music and hand clapping as a morbidly obese man on hormones and dressed in panties prances about in high heels… inviting 4 yr olds to ‘touch me baby.. touch me there’… as the mothers squeal in delight – clap harder — and urge their children to stuff 20 dollar bills into the panties…

            This is where we are now… one might argue it’s the downslope … and it’s leading to widespread Mental Illness.

            I have been expecting this.

        • machival66 says:

          Stanford Prison experiment is a fraud.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        The experiment using real live humans is yielding some fascinating results.

        We’ve got real live surgeons at top hospitals — cutting off peckers and boobs off of adolescents… pumping them full of hormones … and preparing them to go out into the world at Total Freaks.

        Now that … is the pinnacle… of a world gone mad as we approach collapse – and extinction

    • Lastcall says:

      You say; ‘The decay of a civilization does not start with resource depletion.
      It starts with mental health depletion.’

      Mental health depletion follows resource depletion; depleted soils lead to depleted minds…so ‘the people in the civilization do not have enough mental power to understand what holds this thing together.’

      Thus the will-power has gone.
      Impoverishment of the mind follows impoverishment of the food. You are what you eat, and civilisation digs its grave with its teeth.
      Look what passes for food these days; weird ingredients, wired people, wonky politics.

    • Christopher says:

      I also believe you are on to something. There is a visible cultural and moral decay, likely connected to a mental depletion.

      “The jolly heretic” addresses one possible evolutionary mechanism for this:

  23. Dramatic day, dramatic commentary.

    Putin spoke some truths to the world that the West is _really_ not going to like.

    ‘And btw. thanks for those territories back.’

  24. Student says:

    From chess poin of view, after the north stream sabotage, Russia has made a move with the annexation of russian speaking territoried through referendum.
    The next move should be from Nato.
    Now it is interesting to see if Europe will remain compact, fully destroying itself, or if some Countries will say:
    ‘ok, let’s stop a while, because we have gone too far’.
    Maybe the ones to say something could be Sweden, Denmark, Norway or Germany, because France, Uk, Netherland, Italy, Spain (or other minor) will not do it.

    The link below only for the purpouse of looking to the map

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/21/mapping-the-ukraine-regions-voting-on-joining-russia

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The Russian speaking areas that are being annexed are on the Southeast, along the Sea of Azov.

      I am not sure that Norway is currently part of what is happening elsewhere in Europe. Also Iceland. They both have their own energy sources. They are rich enough to rebate the high costs to customers, if they charge them at all. They benefit from higher energy prices. They are part of NATO, but not the EU.

      The countries that are less tightly tied to the European Union would seem to be the ones that still have their own currency. These include

      Bulgaria
      Croatia
      Czechia
      Denmark
      Hungary
      Poland
      Romania
      Sweden

      Of course, Switzerland is not in the EU to begin with, but it is desperate for cheap energy. The UK is also desperate for cheap energy, and is not in the EU (any more).

      It seems like the EU is more likely to fall apart than NATO, given the US role in NATO. Financial stress could pull the EU apart, with the poorer countries pulling away.

      • reante says:

        But without the EU is there even a transatlaticist military project to speak of? The emerging politics across Europe are nationalist, and nationalism inherently stands in opposition to internationalist NATO. Seems to me that the EU and NATO are a package deal.

      • NomadicBeer says:

        Gail, can the US keep the EU and NATO together?

        I think yes, it can for as long as USD has any power.
        – US can print money at will and use it to buy MSM and politicians
        – If that fails, we saw how easy it is to have an “accident” or a “terrorist attack” or “suicide”. That’s why I don’t think any of the populist leaders that started to win in Europe are real – if they were, they wouldn’t last long.

        So I expect EU to keep chugging along and all protests to be either squashed or coopted (by bribing or buying or removing the leaders).

        In a couple of years when USD enters its hyperinflationary phase, things will change. Until then, sorry…

        • Tsubion says:

          Couldn’t agree more!

          All populist leaders on the rise such as in Italy and Vox in Spain are controlled opposition to the globalist agenda (a boogeyman set up to fail).

          Two sides of the same coin.

          Who owns the coins?

          I wouldn’t be surprised if they flip the script and we see some nasty action from nationalism so that it becomes demonized yet again.

          The end goal would be some homogenized, sufficiently palatable Christian / New Age / Neo Pagan mish mash that brings everyone together under a pseudo global religious order.

          The current Pope is leading this effort. But Vigano is likely to finish the job.

          Every knee shall bow to the new order… or perish.

          I wonder what secrets lurk in the Vatican vaults…

          • reante says:

            Indeed, the coming national socialisms will of course be controlled opposition. The elites have full-spectrum dominance, after all. But even me, as a non-political animist, will welcome the small-government approach that NS brings. Small government is the great perk of Collapse.

            • how would you feel about no government at all

            • reante says:

              Norm I’m an animist. Government is only a constructive dynamic when it’s a self-organizing principle. The minute it becomes an institution all that’s good is lost. We’re evolved out of primates, and we’re still only ‘hardwired’ by evolution to live successfully in the ecology below Dunbar’s Number.

            • well at least we agree on something

              10k years hasn’t been long enough for the brain of humankind to evolve from the hunter-gatherer state to that of what we know as modern living.

              we are still in the process of evolving from primates, and their immediate descendants.

              who, in general terms, looked on any unforeseen circumstance as a conspiracy of the gods working to destroy them at a personal level.

            • reante says:

              Right on, Norm, glad you see civilization for what it is. That’s important. Then there’s seeing all the lies it tries to tell us.

              “who, in general terms, looked on any unforeseen circumstance as a conspiracy of the gods working to destroy them at a personal level.”

              Ha, nice try in trying to sneak-in a (false) ‘evolutionary’ against conspiracy theories, by falsely maligning animism, which is our universal human cultural heritage as homo sapiens sapiens, across 99pc of our generational family tree. Contrary to ignorant civilizational lies/stereotypes, animism didn’t believe in gods. ‘God’ was not present in any animist vocabulary. In accordance with Reason they believed in a creator about which nothing could be known, because Reason says that a creator must exist cuz something cannot come from nothing. ‘Gods being crazy’ mythologies came about after proto-religions emerged to compensate for exceeding Dunbar’s Number.

            • the ”it” of civilisation is ourselves.

              otherwise civilisation is just an abstract concept with no shape or form

            • reante says:

              No, Norm. There’s a structural, anthropologyical definition for civilization, which is an agricultural society that runs structural (year-on-year) supluses. That’s not an abstract concept.

              Where have you been all these years?

              The ‘it’ is not ‘us,’ the it is a cultural problem. Humans existed for a very long time without that problem. Was that problem eventually going to surface? Yes, probably. Was it inevitable? Maybe. But that still doesn’t mean it’s us. Recognize the nuance.

            • lol

              this is one of those subjects that could be argued until the pub closed–and still not reach a definitive conclusion.

              civilised behaviour might then be defined as not deciding to settle it with a fist fight in the carpark outside

            • reante says:

              No not really norm that’s a copout

      • Student says:

        I agree.
        Another point I would like to add is that EU is going to nowhere mainly because its main Country (Germany) has completely abondoned any geopolitical project.
        I read some article about the ghosts that Germany is feeling because of its past and therefore it has abondoned any project of geopolitical power, considering only its economical power.
        But the Story is demonstrating that you cannot be the most important Area of an emperor and leave the geopolitical power to others.

    • Oddys says:

      Not Sweden – I promise you that! Live here full time. The worst is that people here behave like sheep – get hoarded wherever the shepherd want. The best is that more and more people stop taking in “news” from MSM, but instead go about with the small and close pleasures – like family dinners, long strolls and sunsets.

    • in 1938, Hitler ”annexed” the Sudetenland to free ethnic Germans

      4 years later he had ‘annexed’ most of Europe

      Just thought it was worth mentioning it

      • Lastcall says:

        Maiden Coup, Victoria Nuland, dismissal of the Minsk I and Minsk II treaties, presence of western funded bio-labs, Nazi Battalion rule of Kiev, expansion of Nato, war crimes against ethnic Russians, refusal of Euro Human Rights Commission to act on any of the 5,500 complaints sent to it, the bombardment of ethnic Russian areas of Donbass commencing on 24th Feb.

        Hence, what a surprise, the SMO commencing on 28th Feb.

        ‘Just thought it was worth mentioning it…’

      • reante says:

        Norman, not sure it was worth mentioning because it implies that annexation is fundamentally worse than colonialism, or neocolonialism, when it’s obviously not. Unless, that is, you can make a convincing argument why it is worse, but I’m not seeing one myself.

        • throughout history, nations have always taken chunks out of other nations (or swallowed them whole)

          I was merely giving a direct warning about what happened in 1938, Hitler wasn’t stopped and so he went on until he was.

          The same applies to Putin–he’s expressed his Greater Russia intentions already. He wants to recreate the USSR.

          • reante says:

            What difference does it make if he wants to recreate the USSR (conspiracy theory)? Meet the new boss, right? Same as the old boss. Why does that necessitate a warning from you? Because the old boss that rules Ukraine also rules you and you feel like you could never ask for a better boss, so the Vlad must be worse? I’m just trying to understand here, Norm.

            Another question: how exactly does one go about growing empires during energy collapse? And why? What surpluses do other Eastern European countries have that can be skimmed off the top? I’m not seeing them.

            • My ‘warning’ was a generalisation. I doubt if Putin comes on OFW very often.

              first off, there are no surpluses for future exploitation.

              but most people navigate their lives using the rear view mirror of history.

              armies have criss-crossed Europe-Asia for millennia, every event has ended in disaster for the participants. Every invasion has been an energy grab.
              But they/we go on repeating it because no other option seems possible.
              (This time will be different)

              Living in harmony with one another is the logical answer, but nutcase politicians/emperors invariably rise up to inflame the ‘need’ for invasion of somewhere else.
              (check your history books)

              You are quite correct in saying empire building isn’t possible if energy resources are in a state of collapse.

              Unfortunately our chosen leaders cannot recognise or accept that. No leader with delusions of empire can accept that we are watching the final throw of the dice of human civilisation.
              Instead he thinks about grabbing what he can while he can still win.

              We saw the same thing at the start of the pandemic—stores were stripped bare in days

              exactly the same mental process, but just on a smaller scale.

            • reante says:

              Norman

              Then you must think that Putin and the whole Russian MIC are total idiots for seeking to burn much of their remaining surpluses on running roughshod over territories it knows it can’t hold.

              That’s not a serious analysis. How do you justify it? It just looks to me like some sort of anachronistic British WW2 family trauma-based analysis, for lack of a better formulation, not knowing you and all. As if you’ve drunk the koolaid that makes monsters out of militant men not aligned with western imperialism.

          • reante says:

            Empire and Entropy, remember? Peak oil brings entropy not empire. Ukraine is not Russian empire building. It’s part of the coordinated, non-public degrowth agenda that seeks the glide path option.

            Put yourself in their shoes. The managerial class needs to avoid chaotic collapse if they are to survive.

            • entropy represents the endgame of empire—of whatever size

              we’ve been through this 1000 times on ofw–there is no ‘coordination’—just a mass movement as an attempt at mass salvation in the face of crisis.

              you cannot have survival of an ‘elite’

              the world cannot function for the benefit of a ‘few’, with the res just ‘disposed of’

              civilisation doesnt work like that.

            • reante says:

              Yes entropy is the end state of empire of any size, but that doesn’t answer my argument.

              If there was no coordination then how did the globalization of finance capitalism happen, including in places like China and Russia? What is that if not coordination?

              What is ‘degrowth’ — the secular, globally-coordinated demand destruction since 2020 — if not a euphemism for the centrally-planned unwinding of globalized consumer capitalism out of necessity? Surely you agree that it has to be unwound because what else could possibly happen? Nothing else could happen. And that’s ALL that’s been happening since 2020, centrally-planned rationing/destruction of demand by two (fake/manufactured) wars – the plandemic was just another fake war on terror and this one is more war economics of rationing. It’s all so transparent. We’ve been saying for more than a decade that they would mask collapse with war.

              Agricultural civilizations (the only kind of civilization) are planned plantation economies. They’re not self-organizing phenomena. The minute grain surpluses got put in a central storehouse for redistribution, centrally planned economies were born. Globalization is crony capitalism. Crony capitalism is central planning. Central planning IS coordination. The petrodollar is coordination. Coordinated dedollarizing is coordination.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              it might seem as if it is planned.. but it was always going to turn out that way… the people who put this in play were inevitable… if not then they would never have been in the position to make whatever happens happen… some others would have risen to the top…

              that’s the way a self organizing system works… there is the illusion of choice.. but in reality there is no choice.

            • you mean it’s not a conspiracy of the elders after all eddy?

            • Fast Eddy says:

              It is .. but the Elders were always inevitable

            • Tsubion says:

              The Elders conspire but within the overall framework of the self-organising system.

              As lowly humans, we twitter about the level that we live at. (gossip)

              Sometimes we are capable of elevating our perspective so as to marvel at the self-organising system in all its glory.

              It’s not either/or… it’s interlocking parts of the same machine.

            • reante says:

              Regarding self-organizing systems.

              You guys, Eddy and Tsubion, are misusing the term. Norm appears to understand it properly.

              Self organizing systems are strictly emergent phenomena, which is to say that the broad organizational pattern across the system spontaneously emerges as a result of similar patterns repeated at smaller scales amplifying each other.

              You guys are right that civilization exhibits self-organizing dynamics but it only does so as a positive feedback loop of the more fundamental hierarchical structuring of civilization which is not self-organizing but is a structural/ideological organization of rulers and those they rule.

              Hierarchy has self-organizing dynamics because all systems have positive (and negative) feedback loops, but hierarchy is not itself a self-organizing system – it’s an acquired power principle.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              No it’s self organizing … the person at the top got there because he was born to get there… he was born with the traits that got him there… if he was not then someone who was more suitable would have got there.

              I am more inclined to look at it in terms of CTGs simulation … that’s the force behind the self organizing system

              Looking back.. I can point to a great many situations that could have resulted in my lift taking very different turns… where I turned in the directions that made absolutely no sense whatsoever… as if there was an invisible guiding hand.

              As if I was being prepped for Fast Eddy to make his appearance… I’ve had a great deal of time on my hands since my mid 40’s making this possible. That would not have happened if I was in charge of making the choices.

              The messiah is the driver. HE is the self-organizer.

            • the messiah obviously has a misguided sense of humour

          • Kim says:

            @ norman

            Germany was forced into war with Poland, which was doing to Germany and Germans in Poland (ethnic cleansing and harrassment of Germans, interfering with commerce, etc) pretty much the same things that the Ukranians have been doing – provocations – vis a vis Russia and at the behest of the same people, via Britain.

            Poland was absolutely not a good actor in that war, no more than they are in this one.

            And France was not “annexed”, it was invaded in response to its declaration of war on Germany and incursions into German territory.

            Note that the Germans guaranteed that they would leave immediately that the war ended and that they were far more popular conquerors than the destroyers and rapists who bombed the French cities and notoriously terrorized and looted the French population post-D-Day.

            Hoggan, David L.

            “The Forced War: When Peaceful Revision Failed” (1961)

            • hmmm

              i must go back and re read my history books

              Within weeks of gaining power in 1933, Hitler shut down opposing press and banned political opposition, and opened the first concentration camp, Dachau. (22 March 1933)

              He then began rearmament, which of course created full employment, which led to general euphoria. (look!–we’ve all got jobs again)

              problem with building tanks and guns is, they are so much scrap metal unless they are put to use.
              You can’t just keep making them and parking them in a field somewhere. The only way they can be justified is by invading another country.

              That is essential, to cover the supply-cost of producing the wartoys in the first place.

              As far as ‘annexing’ is concerned, I think you might have missed the line of fortifications constructed along the channel coast as soon as the Brits left.

              Do you think that was to keep the French in—or later invaders out? So much for the fairy tale of leaving France as soon as the war was over.

              Hitler did not intend war to be over. Dictators never do. It is their means of self-justiification.

              I can only suggest you read some different history books.

            • Kim says:

              @ norman

              You may nor be aware of this, but the UK “democracy” did not hold General Elections for the entire period 1935 1945. Yes, that’s right, the 1940 elections were cancelled lest the public oppose the imposition of Churchill as the national warlord forbthe long-planned second attempt to destroy Germany.

              Does that not mean that Churchill was as much a dictator as Hitler, the difference being that Hitler was not a hypocrite and in fact campaigned as a non-democrat?

              Upon coming to power, Hitler did indeed intern thousands of people, mostly the same Communist revolutionaries and Comintern and Soviet agents who were operative in various red armed coup attempts and the very many red political assassinations such as those that briefly succeeded in Bavaria, was suppressed in Berlin, and plagued the entire Weimar period.

              The UK also operated internment camps for political opposition, people who opposed Churchill and his war, (held for years without charge) as well as many thousands of aliens.

              https://blog.nationalarchives.gov.uk/collar-lot-britains-policy-internment-second-world-war/

              Germany fought WW2 because she was backed into it by the same people who have created this war in Ukraine today, using the same methods and the same catspaws with the same goals. These are the same people who created the Bolshevik Soviet Union, people who see it as dangerous to their interests to permit cooperation between a healthy and free (from them) Germany and a healthy and free Russia.

              These are the same people whose goal at Versailles was to destroy the territorial integrity of Germany in flagrant violation of their own supposed principles of “national self-determination” and with this goal in mind ANNEXED vast swathes of German lands and populations and handed them over to be ruled as despised and mistreated minorities, as in 95% German Danzig, or 95% German Sudetenland.

              Yet somehow out of this Hitler and the Germans, who only wished to see these despicable arrangements ameliorated, became the most evil man and the most evil people in history, the objects of the vilest and most comprehensive and unrelenting program of lies and slander and, most simply put, brainwashing, ever conceived and carried out.

              And you are a typically misinformed example of the success of that program.

            • everyone is ‘misinformed’ by the standards of someone else

              dunno where you’re getting your ‘history feed’ from–all very odd. Suggest a bit more research.

              if Churchill had been the ‘dictator’ you insist he was, he would not have lost the 1945 election, which was called immediately ww2 ended.

              Yes people were interned in UK during ww2, Mosley and his fascist cohorts. Mosley was released in 1943 Unharmed, he left UK after the war. The Isle of Man was turned into an internment camp, people sent there were mostly harmless anyway–but just kept out of the way

              I suggest you research what happened to the lawyer (Hans Litten) who prosecuted Hitler in the 1920s. He did not survive the concentration camp.

              If you remain convinced that Hitler was just a misunderstood painter, then I must leave you to your own fixations

            • banned says:

              “Hitler shut down opposing press and banned political opposition,”

              Wouldnt this better fit Bidens actions and the censorship we see in social media including the war on bodily autonomy and Bidens declaring MAGA a “extreme threat”? Hence the #pedohitler ?

              “problem with building tanks and guns is, they are so much scrap metal unless they are put to use.
              You can’t just keep making them and parking them in a field somewhere. The only way they can be justified is by invading another country.

              That is essential, to cover the supply-cost of producing the wartoys in the first place.”

              Wouldn’t this better fit the USA with its “defense” budget larger than the next 14 largest countries defense budgets combined ?

              The Hitler association is always a cheap shot regardless of similarities and I include #pedohitler in this. It creates division which stops a discussion of the real issues. It is your favorite tool Norman as a obvious propagandist. You constantly fit any discussion that raises difficult questions into a box. Sometimes its Hitler sometimes its Alex Jones. Regardless the purpose is to stop discussion of the relevant facts.

              Russia has taken the territories it had to to protect Russian speakers with the overwhelming approval of those territories. The vast majority of the fighting has been by the Donbass militia which Russia has supported with troops and Wagner group and equipment. Now that it considers the four oblasts Russia proper regular Russian military moves in. It wants no other territory in fact despises the racist Russiaphobes of the rest of Europe. The USA and its puppet regime in Kiev are willing to sacrifice the 80,000 fantastically brave Ukrainian troops in the Kramatorsk fortifications rather than come to the negotiating table and acknowledge that the Russian speaking Oblasts are now Russian because of the genocidal acts upon them by the Kiev regime created in the 2014 cou.

              I watched that bloody cou occur in 2014 evernight from the VICE footage on the internet. A bloody overthrow of a democratically elected government in response to the refusal of a EU loan offer, the cou implemented by Victoria Nuland. The average Ukrainian is not a racist russiaphobe. Poroshenko said he would end the war. Zelensky said he would end the war. That got them elected then they turned around with USA cash in their pocket and the racist nationalists did there thing. Ukraine should be enjoying its rightful place of the breadbasket of Europe interacting with all other nations freely but the USA installed openly facist leaders openly racist and implementing genocidal acts on Russian speakers with the end of bringing in Russia and crippling it with sanctions. They have failed with that. It is the USA that has destroyed Ukraine with its puppet the EU total approval.

              Russia may seek to disarm the nuclear capabilities of Romania and Poland that are contrary to the verbal contract the Soviet Union received in 1991 in return for giving up eastern Germany. I hope not. It had 300,000 troops in eastern Germany it didnt have to give it up EG in 91.. It has been rewarded for what amounted to unilateral disarmament in 1991 and a return of Germanic speaking lands by a constant and substantial effort to end it as a country and attacks on Russian speaking lands. Russia realized the return of Germanic speaking lands to a political institution that supposedly represents them was justice just as a return of Russian speaking lands to Russia is justice. Unfortunately the EU government is another USA/UK puppet but thats the German peoples problem not Russias.. Putin and what we are witnessing are a product of the wests aggression nothing more . If only Reagan and Khrushchev had implemented the total nuclear disarmament of both sides they discussed. But the bomb makers and Unipolar gang of thieves didnt and dont want nuclear disarmament. The USA in fact has zero industrial capacity to fight a conventional war it outsourced it, It must be a nuclear/technological and money printing for bribes war. Probably the most accurate association of mid 1900 Germany and the USA is in regard to the money printing of the Weimar regime. The USA is on the edge of financial contagion and hyperinflation as a result of its reckless buying debt from itself for military spending and nuclear war may well be the result. Here in the USA we are taught that WW2 was the answer that solved the depression and the model that war solves economic problems runs deep. So yes you might want to get a new set of history books yours are a function of the deep state propaganda characterizations you so clearly love to spread, a deep state that is clearly acting against the best interests of common freedom loving peaceful people and self evident rights established by the Magna Carta.

            • lol

              i waded through that lot (have you thought about using the return key to break it up a bit?)

              until I got to ‘the deep state’ bit. There is no deep state—only the collective stupid actions of ourselves.

              Yes, Germany and Japan did indeed end the 30s depression.

              The demand was for jobs and wages.
              Wartoys, made from oil coal and iron, provided those wages. The USA had a surplus, Germany and Japan did not–hence they lost the war. Simple energy-economics. No great political theory about it. No great intellect required–even I can figure that out.

              At the time nobody dared mention it to Hitler, that he was on a loser.

              Agree that the USA has kept itself employed on armaments production–(Eisenhower warned about that) Armaments have to be used, they are a productive dead end if they are not.

              Fear of ‘an enemy’ keeps the arms factories open, to the ruin of all. But if you are employed there–it means your wages, hence politicians want armaments–it keeps their jobs too.

              No deep state–just people wanting to earn a living. If that means the death of other people—so be it.

            • Kim says:

              @ norman

              Where I get my history? Well, not from reruns of The Longest Day and Hogan’s Heroes.

              On the roles (conspiracy) of Britain, France and Poland I have already recommended Hoggan to you.

              On the immoral ANNEXATIONS of German territories I refer you to the Treaty of Versailles, universally decried, even at the time, as the evil seedbed of WW2.

              On Polish atrocities and ethnic cleansings against German minorities in the interwar period.

              https://jrbooksonline.com/polish_atrocities.htm

              https://wintersonnenwende.com/scriptorium/english/archives/atrocities/pagmp000.html

              https://wintersonnenwende.com/scriptorium/english/archives/atrocities/pagmp003.html

              On Churchill somehow not being a dictator even though he cancelled elections for five years….a dictatorship that included imprisonment for opponents but that you regard as somehow retrospectively justified because people elected him in 1945….well, on exactly the same basis you can have ZERO objections to Hitler’s eschewing of democracy at Germany’s time of trial (the early 1930s) and you must believe that his dictatorship was entirely justified by his subsequent enormous undeniable popularity.

              No?

            • kim

              i formally give up

              the floor is yours

            • reante says:

              Kim

              Fine analysis of the origins of WW2. Beyond Poland, NSDAP knew very well that they were caught between an industrial rock and a hard place. Anglo-zionist imperial fascists to the left of them, imperial Marxists to the right of them, both with monster new oil plays, and they were stuck in the middle with mere coal, and being called every name in the book. They were idiots, so they fought to the death. That’s real life. The rest is history, imperial fascism is the last man standing – just. Just about standing, still.

            • reante says:

              They WEREN’T idiots I meant. (The ‘nazi’ orwellianism meant ‘idiiot’)

            • banned says:

              The Norman cycle;

              Deep state propaganda
              Deep state propaganda
              Retreat mode
              people are mean to me have we no standards!
              use proper english would you old chap
              energy(war is inevitable not their fault)
              energy ( we must all die not their fault)
              Your a moon unit believer!
              Deep state propaganda
              Deep state propaganda

            • dissecting that response in search of a shred of sense and meaning

              use proper language?

              “Your a moon unit believer!”

              i assume you meant:

              “you’re a moon unit believer”. ie–” you are” -get your apostrophes sorted before you ask me to use proper language

              and I still have no idea what you were rambling on about. No doubt it made sense to you, but the basic idea of the written word is that it should make sense to other people.

      • Fred says:

        Can’t figure out why Russia would want to ‘annex’ any part of Europe that doesn’t contain ethnic Russians, who BTW overwhelmingly voted Yes to joining.

        No benefit to them, as it doesn’t have anything they want and everything they don’t (woke crazies, Russophobes, Nazis etc).

        • Tim Groves says:

          We are told that Hit-ler invaded to the east firstly because he wanted access to energy and secondly because he wanted living space — wide open spaces — to house the expanding population.

          If we are going to entertain the Hit-ler analogy, we have to ask: why would Pu-tin want to invade to the west?

          Is he short on energy? Hardly.

          Is he short on living space? Far from it.

          So, tell us, Norman, please, why on earth would Pu-tin want to do a re-run of Hit-ler’s run?

          • Kim says:

            We have been told lots of things abour Hitler, the most evil man in history.

            But the basic reality is that Germany attacked the Soviet Union to forestall an imminent Soviet invasion.

          • 2 reasons

            1….because the ultimate energy resource is food

            2 …..all authoritarian leaders thrust outwards from their home territory

            he’s stated clearly that the breakup of the USSR was a mistake that should be rectified, the desire for power is literally unlimited.

            if he controls Ukraine’s food output, he controls a large part of the world without invading it.
            By taking actions that he knew would result in shutting off gas, he does much the same thing with European industry.

            You may not have noticed that.

            To reflect to condescending tone of your comment Tim, I might point out that not every aspect of history is a repeat of the one before, merely an echo of it.

            His actions are a mistake, but how it will play out, not even I can forecast. One cannot know of internal pressures he might be under. Except that he must assert his dominating power. That has never worked well for anyone in the past.

            Has it?

            • MM says:

              If the West wanted free food flow out of Ukraine it just needed to follow the Minsk II agreement. That was in place.
              Everybody could live with that.
              For some reason it was not sufficient.

            • drb753 says:

              Food? Norman, to be perfectly honest all the abuse you got on this forum is well deserved. And that is because you twist things in any possible way rather than abandoning your decrepit little worldview. Russia is exporting food in record amounts.

            • lol

              its not abuse

              its stimulation

      • Gar says:

        Germany was short on energy, particulary oil, and many other resources. The build up to war was made on Credit, with the tacit asumption that it would be paid for by expansion into the East. Hence the German battlecry “Lebensraum” ( room to live ) and “Drang nach Osten” ( drive towards the East.). These few words encompass the essence of WW2.
        Currently The West finds itself in a similar situation: Hopelesly overleveraged and without collateral to cover the credit expansion unless it can conquer the last remaining resources which happen to be located, well we all know where.
        Hence the situation today is ecactly the opposite of what you alluded to.
        There is exactly nothing in Europa that Russia needs.

        • as i’ve said before, all wars are fought over resources, one way or another.

          ukraine represents a massive food energy resource.

          if putin controls that, he has leverage on the rest of the world

          • l says:

            Small detail; Putin has enabled export of grain from Ukie.
            In addition, most of that grain is owned by US conglomerates. Ukraine has already been conquered.
            Putin is merely ending the US regimes’ war crimes against ethnic Russians.

        • MM says:

          The last resource being conquered is your smart phone.
          The last resource to conquer is you body.

        • ivanislav says:

          Exactly. That’s why US/EU/NATO is so hysterical and continues escalating – failure will mean death and destruction of the status quo.

  25. Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
    Gail Tverberg says:

    The WSJ is reporting: Exxon CEO Warns Biden Administration Against Limiting Fuel Exports
    Exxon argues against push to get energy companies to slow overseas shipments and stash more fuel in storage tanks

    Exxon Mobil Corp. is pushing back against reductions of U.S. fuel exports urged by the Biden administration in August, arguing that restricting shipments would further squeeze global supplies and lift pump prices at home.

    Exxon told the Energy Department this week that the oil industry shouldn’t slow fuel shipments in favor of putting more in storage tanks, according to a letter reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. Easing exports wouldn’t fill tanks in the Northeast—a region where U.S. officials said oil companies need to send more supplies—and instead would create a glut in the Gulf Coast that would lead refineries to cut output, according to the letter, which was signed by Exxon Chief Executive Darren Woods.

    At issue is whether U.S. fuel exports, which are near record levels, are hurting U.S. consumers, particularly in some regions like the East Coast where inventories are low. Administration officials have argued exports are contributing to declines in U.S. fuel stockpiles, while many energy executives disagree.

    My comments: Of course, even reducing or stopping the withdrawal from the SPR would tend to lower world oil supply. Refilling tanks would go the other way.

    US oil supply is awfully “light”. The US needs to export some of its light oil and import heavier oil from elsewhere, such as Canada. The heavy oil from the oil sands is just what is needed.

    • Sam says:

      Or can they import more Venezuela oil? I believe that is heavy..

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Venezuela needs a really high price to develop its oil. Also, there is a large population that needs financial support from high taxes on oil. And Venezuela needs technical help on developing its heavy oil. It is difficult to imagine much oil coming from Venezuela.

        • houtskool says:

          There it is again; affordability. We wouldn’t have this existantial problem if we did not go to debt based fiat currencies. Combined with former cheap fossils its a deadly combination. A few billion dead combination.

          We’re climbing the wall of a petri dish like the zombies in World War Z. A self inflicted meteor.

          Good thing you run barter town Gail.

    • halfvard
      Halfvard says:

      So ban oil exports and annex Canada I guess will be the solution?

  26. The obvious objection is that is completely imaginary.

    “But it wants to live.”

    Does it, indeed?

    Is that science or story time?

    Can you point to any experiments?

  27. Mac
    Agamemnon says:

    From oil barrel . Around 50min he talks about how using SPR is causing volatility; that it would be best to maintain $100 .

    IZZY DOROSKI
    IGNORED
    09/29/2022 at 10:03 am
    Excellent discussion on the present and future of oil production and investing in the space by Shubham Garg. Many reasons why a dramatic oil production decline is coming from a lack of resources, rising costs and huge decline rates and even apathy of the needed workers.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Thanks for the link.

      Shubham Garb seems to be quite knowledgable. He points out that oil production is declining in many parts of the world now. He points out that the releases from the SPR tend to keep the price of oil artificially low. There is no extra oil supply that can be brought on line.

  28. CTG says:

    Guys… let us move on from 9-11. It is the same as “safe and effective”. There will be people who will always belive it is safe and effective.

  29. CTG says:

    I have one really stupid question. There are many news and articles that USA is benefiting from the destruction of Germany as German operations (i believe this is the offices, factories, warehouses) are moved to USA.

    So, tell me, they move the whole factory? Tear down, move equipment and relocate? Or set up a new factory, hire new staff or move new staff over? Training new staff while building new offices or plants/factories? How about specialised small companies doing specialised stuff? Can they move over easily? Supply chain moves easily? Like in the automotive and BASF plant where they have a long list suppliers that feeds in the factory, all moving to USA.

    Were there any announcement of new plants and factories or entire offices relocating from Germany to USA? On newspaper?

    So major operations moving to Germany due to high energy costs that started in Feb 2022. In 7 months, shifted over??

    I have a few Brookland Bridges to sell. I think people are a few magnitudes bigger than Mormons. If you got yo lie, do it better

    • drb753 says:

      they move crucial equipment and crucial experts and trainers. pay them three times as much if needed. they then set up shop somewhere in rural USA.

    • banned says:

      Agree. China owns that franchise. There is no energy timeframe that supports re outsourcing anywhere else.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Moving from the US or Europe to China was a “no brainer.” Start over with a new, more efficient factory. Add cheap labor and fairly cheap long-distance transport costs. Also, favorable tax structure, since some countries would tax their own production (because of CO2 emissions), but not tax imports from China, produced with coal.

      Moving from Germany to the US is less of a no brainer. Costs are still fairly high in the US. New factory might be a little more efficient, but getting materials from China to build it might be a problem. Workers here would need training. German workers are probably pretty well-trained and efficient, but mostly they would not be transferring here.

    • MM says:

      If you are a good person you would never send your money or assets to the USA. (*cough*)
      All other persons MUST move to the USA because it is the only place to

      have investor friendly laws
      grow
      profit
      plunder the planet
      and get something (more) for your Buck

      You might want to wish for whatever you want but everybody else just has to move to the USA.

      You could argue that there exists a Deep State and a Financial Elite.
      The Deep State knows their time is over when the people lose faith in the state.
      The Financial Elite knows that their time is over when the trust in money is gone.

      Long long long long long long long way to go…..

    • Dennis L. says:

      CTG,

      It is not only the capital, it is the skilled labor. Capital is actually hostage to labor, without labor nothing works. If one is in business for one’s self, that lesson is learned quickly.

      Being a good boss is an art, finance is ancillary; the US sold out its industry and lost its labor base along with familial stability that provided.

      MM has an insightful post earlier regarding this idea.

      We are in trouble without certain “necessities” such as neon and five axis machine tools.

      Dennis L.

      • Ravi Uppal says:

        A copy/paste from the comments section at MOA .
        Don’t worry, there is no “victory” here for the US. Producing in the US in only cheaper than in Germany, but it is not competitive. Any german factory that moves there will be dead in a few months/years. The prices of fuels/electricity will get as high in the US as in Europe, especially if new factories are started there. Moreover, the dollar is now too expensive compared to other currencies, making it very difficult to sell the production, at the same time when inflation is consuming US purchasing power.

        Posted by: Howard Petz | Sep 26 2022 21:09 utc | 76

        • Ravi Uppal says:

          Further I remember Japan had put up a fund of $ 5 billon to lure Japanese companies back from China when Trump started the trade war with China . Not one company returned . Easier said then done .

  30. i will get there in the end Tsubion

    But right now, following Eddy’s, (and by association your) lead, I’m still tracking down and interviewing the crisis actors from the Sandy Hook school shooting, and a range of other fugitives from various hoaxathons. (too numerous to mention). Moonloonery is getting so old , the original plotters are dying of old age, rather than covidosis.

    All grist to the mill of the conspirateur.

  31. Tsubion says:

    FE… you wanted horror…

    ”The Graphene Oxide Demon” effect strikes a Vaxxed driver – Watch the horror unfold

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/rnZq8ZFgMJ1G/

    Or a stroke. It happens sometimes.

    From now on you won’t be able to differentiate.

    And doctors steer clear of laying blame on vaxxes.

    A sane human would never accept a vaxx ever again. Not a single one is based on real science. Just a long standing fraud that is coming to a close.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      The CIA committed terrorist acts… blamed the commies… https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gladio

      The US murdered 500k children in Iraq… and admit to it:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bntsfiAXMEE

      Knocking down the towers and firing a missile into the Pentagon — jeez that’s all in a days work if it means providing justification for an invasion of the middle east… Iraq, Libya, Syria…

      I highly recommend this book:

      This disturbing exposé describes a secret alliance forged at the close of World War II by the CIA, the Sicilian and US mafias, and the Vatican to thwart the possibility of a Communist invasion of Europe. Journalist Paul L. Williams presents evidence suggesting the existence of “stay-behind” units in many European countries consisting of five thousand to fifteen thousand military operatives.

      According to the author’s research, the initial funding for these guerilla armies came from the sale of large stocks of SS morphine that had been smuggled out of Germany and Italy and of bogus British bank notes that had been produced in concentration camps by skilled counterfeiters. As the Cold War intensified, the units were used not only to ward off possible invaders, but also to thwart the rise of left-wing movements in South America and NATO-based countries by terror attacks.

      Williams argues that Operation Gladio soon gave rise to the toppling of governments, wholesale genocide, the formation of death squads, financial scandals on a grand scale, the creation of the mujahideen, an international narcotics network, and, most recently, the ascendancy of Jorge Mario Bergoglio, a Jesuit cleric with strong ties to Operation Condor (an outgrowth of Gladio in Argentina) as Pope Francis I.

      https://www.amazon.com/Operation-Gladio-Alliance-between-Vatican/dp/1616149744

      This is the Real World… no koombaya BS… no ‘Imagine’… no confession booths… f789 that shit… the people who Run the Show are ruthless… kill or be killed … they are the pinnacle of humanity… if you accept that humans are vile beasts…

      We are demons… religions have tried to change our nature … because we are disgusting… but that is impossible. Demons will be demons

      They would never kill 3000 Americans! hahaha… ya right.. they murder babies.

      They murder… babies

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Oh and nobody wants the truth… it makes them uncomfortable… it makes them feel despair… better to feed them narratives of how wonderful and civilized humans are … sweep all that nasty shit under the rug…

      Remember… everything you have in your life… came to you on the back of suffering somewhere else.

      Everything.

  32. Natural gas supplies will grow even tighter in 2023, and its ‘very obvious’ who was behind the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage, IEA chief says
    Jennifer Sor Sep 29, 2022, 2:07 PM
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/europe-energy-crisis-russia-nord-stream-sabotage-natural-gas-prices-2022-9?amp

    Fatih Birol warned summer could be difficult for energy markets.
    Gas supplies will tighten into next year as constraints continue to mount, IEA chief Fatih Birol said.
    Birol’s supply warning came shortly after the Nord Stream explosions, which caused gas prices to surge 11%.
    “It is very obvious … who was behind this issue,” Birol said at a Paris energy conference
    Natural gas supplies are set to be even tighter next year as the Nord Stream pipeline deals with an apparent act of sabotage, International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol said, adding that it’s “very obvious” who was behind the attempt to cripple the key piece of energy infrastructure.

    Birol’s warning comes as Europe is facing a major energy supply crunch this winter, with Russian gas flows halted on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. That caused already-high natural gas prices to soar even higher, with Dutch TTF futures, the European benchmark for natural gas, surging 28.5% shortly after the halt.

    Supplies came under new pressure this week after explosions occurred at both of the Nord Stream pipelines, which Denmark said was likely due to deliberate leaks made in both pipelines. Dutch TTF futures rose another 11% on Wednesday.

    “It is not yet known who made it, who is behind this sabotage, there is still discussion more or less, but … it is very obvious … who was behind this issue,” Birol said at a Paris energy conference on Thursday, according to Reuters.

    Other world leaders have wagered guesses at who may be behind the pipeline attacks: Spain’s energy minister said Russia was likely responsible for the damage, but the Kremlin brushed off any suspicion of Russian involvement on Wednesday, with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitriy Peskov calling the accusations “stupid.”

    At another energy conference in Japan, Birol warned that gas supplies in the coming year would grow tighter, due to the strain of Russian supplies being taken off the market as well as increased demand in Asia. China is slowly emerging from its COVID-19 lockdowns, and will likely ramp up the competition for alternative gas supplies once its economy is back in full swing.

    “We may well see that the LNG markets in 2023 will be rather tight, maybe tighter than this year,” Birol said on Thursday. “If the Chinese economy recovers … it will be difficult for Europe to attract so much LNG.”

    88% of the European Union’s gas storage has been filled as of Monday, according to Reuters, offering some cushion for the bloc to get through supply disruptions this winter. But still, the IEA previously said that Europe would be in danger of blackouts even with 90% storage, leading to a scramble for alternative supplies.

    Yes, it is obvious….too bad very few see the real issue

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      It is “obvious” that the perpetrator is whichever country that you want it to be.

  33. banned says:

    Construction of the twin towers. 15 minutes.

  34. Arctic Ocean acidifying up to four times as fast as other oceans, study finds
    Scientists ‘shocked’ by rate of change as rapid sea-ice melt drives absorption of CO2 – with ‘huge implications’ for Arctic sea life

    The ocean, which absorbs a third of all of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, has grown more acidic because of fossil fuel use. Rapid loss of sea ice in the Arctic region over the past three decades has accelerated the rate of long-term acidification, according to the study, published in Science on Thursday.

    Researchers from the Polar and Marine Research Institute at Jimei University, China, and the School of Marine Science and Policy at the University of Delaware in the US, say rapid sea-ice loss exposes seawater to the atmosphere, promoting takeup of carbon dioxide at a faster rate than in the Atlantic, Pacific, Indian, Antarctic and sub-Antarctic basins.

    “In other ocean systems, acidification is being driven by an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, which is increasing at a rate of around 2ppm [parts per million] per year,” said Wei-Jun Cai, a marine chemistry expert at the University of Delaware and one of the paper’s authors.

    Acidification trends tend to follow those predicted from carbon dioxide increases over time, he said. But when the scientists compared data collected from the Arctic between 1994 and 2020 with ocean basins elsewhere, they found acidification was happening much faster in the Arctic.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/29/arctic-ocean-acidifying-up-to-four-times-as-fast-as-other-oceans-study-finds

    On my, this is certainly another factor in collapse

  35. banned says:

    911 pentagon. No fuselage. No wing sections No engines. Poof. No holes from wings or engines. No gouge tracks from the huge engines well below the fuselage.

    30 seconds
    https://www.bitchute.com/video/1RmWaANwiook/

    • Tsubion says:

      I agree that a plane it could not be…

      But who then knocked the lamposts down…

      along the trajectory…

      no plan could be made for the missile’s path…

      or the planting of a demo charges wrath…

      so it remains a mystery.

      • banned says:

        I went back and forth on the twin towers for years. I tried to convince myself the official narrative could be true. I really wanted it to be true. Pentagon is relevant because its a total fabrication. The physical evidence is crystal clear – no plane hit the pentagon on 911. This establishes both monkey business and deceit. Now add

        Pilots that coulndt fly a cessna made banking turns at max speed into the towers in those boings at max speed at sea level not once but twice? Best pilots cant control those aircraft at max speed at sea level.

        The impossibility of the planes causing the collapse of the twin towers straight down into own footprint at free fall velocity.

        The impossibility of fire causing the B7 collapse straight down into its own footprint at freefall velocity.

        All of these events happening on the same day.

        You know if it wasnt for B7 and the pentagon I dont think anyone would question the towers. Thats the point. They dont want to fool people. Fooling people is for tyrants with no power. They want people to know they did it . They want people who can hold two contradictory thoughts at the same time both as truth. They want people who can accommodate both the elaborate fiction they present and observed facts to the contrary at the same time. The injections are safe and effective. Your 35 year old neighbor who runs marathons just died. They want people who can do this effortlessly with no cognitive dissonance created. This skill is the prerequisite for all other skills in the society they are forming.

        And its happening. All the kids know 911 was a inside job. All the kids know the injections are a unsafe sham. They put into a little box in their head. It enables them to function and have a life.

        The veterans who in the best traditions of bravery and honor served and who saw what was created in the sand box …

        Because there is a reality there is horror.

        And now it manifests in the ultimate horror. World war. Because they dont care. They really dont. One way or another. Whether they destroy the world or control it its all the same . Both demonstrate control. Classical psychopathic behavior.

        The truth does matter.

        • Lidia17 says:

          Yes, they talked openly to the news media about “pulling” Building 7, without a care in the world that that might be challenged or investigated—despite the clear fact that it takes days, if not weeks, to set up the appropriate charges for such a demolition—thus proving pre-meditation of the entire scenario beyond any doubt.

          They own it all: media, politicians, the courts, the executive. Where are you going to go for redress?

          People don’t see it because they don’t want to see it, just like they don’t see the jabs being deadly.. even though the fact they demolished their trials by giving the control group the jabs has always been right there in plain sight, evidencing criminal fraud and nothing less.

          One doesn’t need to belabor infection rates and the melting temperature of steel (where is all that melted steel, btw?) when you have one clear-cut and undeniable piece of evidence to which the criminals themselves admit!

          “Norm”-ies simply can’t conceive of the dimensions of the evil that besets us.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            A great number of people know that the Warren Report re JFK — is a fraud.

            Anyone who’s seen the Zapruder film would know that. Yet no admin since then has reopened that … the FBI has no reopened that.

            The Elders would have ultimately given the command to kill JFK… the politicians fear them… they take their orders from them.. as does the FBI and the rest of the deep state.

            911 is obviously a false flag… but nobody will look into it. For the same reasons.

            BTW – did anyone go to jail over the WMD and ensuring war crimes?

        • Fast Eddy says:

          to a great extent people do not want to know the truth because there is nothing they can do when the find out that the people running the show do not operate under the rules that they themselves are expected to follow — there is no morality — they murder babies..

          Most people are freaked out by that so the prefer not to think about it

    • Fast Eddy says:

      it’s more likely that a cruise missile hit the pentagon

      oh right https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/47272

  36. Tim Groves says:

    Here’s an interesting nugget of speculation from someone who goes by the name of That Bloke:

    “So, whether or not Russia gets fitted up for blowing up NS1 & NS2 doesn’t really matter. They will anyway be blamed for a revenge attack on the undersea internet cables which takes the entire internet down. It’s called cyber polygon.

    “Something to look forward this autumn.”

    And if you’ve never heard of Cyber Polygon, it’s the international capacity building initiative aimed at raising global cyber resilience and supported by INTERPOL and the WEF. They hold an event every year in the shape of “an international technical exercise to prepare for a massive cyber attack which targets infrastructure crucial to the ongoing survival of developed nations and helping developing nations.” The 2022 Cyber Polygon event was scheduled to take place in July in Russia, but has been indefinitely postponed.

    • reante says:

      Joe Lieberman on the Kill Switch. He says it’s about fucking time – gametime.

      I’m not buying it though. The elites are the opposite of suicidal, obviously, and they’ve read Collapse for Dummies besides; they have to decommission and dispose of the nuclear power industry first. Coming Soon To A Theater Near You, as Reverse Engineer used to say.. Is he still ticking?

      • JMS says:

        The last I heard of RE, some two years ago, he was in some sort of home for disabled people. Hope he continues to watch this big shit show, but I think he has stopped commenting on it.

        • Tsubion says:

          I liked that guy… but he was in bad shape.

          Maybe a little too much of an optimist for OFW?

          • reante says:

            If by optimist you mean he hadn’t given up on human beings (which is just shadowplay for having given up on oneself and, by extension, one’s responsibility to one’s loved ones) then, yes, I figure he’s guilty as charged.

            RE is the rate breed who really tried to implement his beliefs IRL. With the Sun Project he tried to start a doomstead to benefit the young and inspired commenters at the Doomstead Diner. It doesn’t get more gallant than that.

          • JMS says:

            A bit optimistic perhaps, at least while he was feeling healthy, with his idea of finding a bugout in Alaska, etc. But when he started having health problems, I think he realized how unrealistic it all was. Anyway, for a few years I gladly followed his rants, then I lost interest. But I liked him too, after all, Doomstead Diner was one of the first doomer sites I knew, back in 2012.

        • reante says:

          really appreciate the update. I remember him talking about how beat up his body was. He’s a real good guy, with a big heart, who never gave up on true human potential. thank you again, JMS.

          • JMS says:

            I also have this impression that he was a good guy, and no doubt very generous with his time. I learned some things from him, and so I am grateful. I hope he is as well as he can be (which in his case perhaps means finding himself already in the Great Beyond, as he liked to say).

            • reante says:

              Right on. Peter, the older fella up in the B.C. fjords was a real gem, too. Had a mystique about him. Maybe he wasn’t still posting in 2012. He had a great place to be, and practiced high-level self-reliance, and spun some great yarns about his run-ins with the elites as a young buck in the recording industry.

        • wratfink says:

          He still posts on Global Collapse forum. He let the Doomstead Diner go because of his health but he’s still kickin.

          • JEREMY says:

            Not quite kicking.
            Sadly, he had both his legs amputated.
            Why do such terrible things happen to such good people?
            Damn it!

            • reante says:

              Wait what?No kidding! That’s great. Legend has it. 🙂

            • RE in the good old days:

            • RE, Nicole Foss, Gail, Ugo Bardi, myself and a few others were exchanging stuff on all this face to face on Google Hangout back in 2015, It was obvious then that RE wasn’t a well man.

              On another note, it’s useful to refer back to that period, because exchanges then were invariably on a gentlemanly/ ladylike level. Half a dozen or more of us could discuss problems, and give and take. Without rancour. Timezones ranged from NZ to Alaska. But we managed it because of mutual interest. RE organised it because it was worthwhile.

              No insults, no innuendo, no faux obscenities, no childish temper tantrums, no conspiracies. no hoaxes.The WTC went down because planes flew into it, the moonlandings happened, climate change was real. (though it was never mentioned, puerile discussions on established science were irrelevant)

              Exchanges, face to face, person to person in joint conference with the same end in mind, were civilised, informative and constructive.

              In 2015, ‘social media’ hadn’t taken off at the scale it has now.

              This why I stay around to puncture all these conspiracy balloons. Sometimes I think I’m an idiot for trying.

            • reante says:

              Norman

              Appreciate that trip down memory lane. My three homes between 2008-2013 were, in order, TAE, Economic Undertow, and Doomstead Diner.

            • i always thought Diner was a bit complicated to navigate, but otherwise goof

          • JMS says:

            Glad to know he still roams the vast prairies of Collapse Territory.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      If the entire internet is dependent on one set of underwater internet cables, I would agree that the international system would be very vulnerable to attack.

      I am somewhat skeptical that the entire internet can every be dependent on one set of underwater internet cables, however. The world has gotten along without such cables before. Or, is the complexity and usage of the current system sufficient that more underwater cables need to keep being added, to keep the overall system operational?

      • Tsubion says:

        Elon’s sat system is a direct competitor is it not?

        Not sure which one is more vulnerable to attack.

        UUVs (unmanned subs) can easily disrupt underwater “anything.”

        But superpowers also possess sat-killing missiles.

        One form of sabotage is a little more discreet than the other.

        Of course… if there is an overarching plan to send us back to the stone age because the planet is suffering blah blah… then the perps are perfectly capable of carrying out such an attack to achieve that goal.

        Off they go to their bunkers with fuel reserves. Pop up again when ROF winds down. Mopp up the mess. Plant seeds from the Norwegian seed vault etc etc.

        • halfvard
          Halfvard says:

          That satellite system can barely provide home internet of a quality to stream Netflix. Undersea cables carry vast amounts of data that are the backbone of a global internet.

        • Vern Baker says:

          The StarLink system was intended to use lasers to send information from sat to sat. This would actually be faster than fiber optic, and provide a competitive advantage to traders. This concept is at the very edge of what is possible. Fixing a laser on a moving satellite to another is a challenge and expensive power wise.

          Of course, the timing is just brilliant for StarLink if they are able to convince investors this feature is coming soon. But, as the sats have a 4 or 5 year life expectancy currently, it all feels like more of a Ponzi scheme.

          • JesseJames says:

            “The StarLink system was intended to use lasers to send information from sat to sat. This would actually be faster than fiber optic”

            I have my doubts about this…fiber optic is based on lasers….diode lasers…or fiber optic lasers. The difference may be the means of modulation, but any improvement applied to satellite lasers can easily be implemented in the fiber optic links. Putting free space lasers on satellites is an energy sink…

            But as we have seen, anything underwater is now in jeopardy, so satellites may make more sense in the short term.

            Long term….internet will die, except for regional links….

  37. Dennis L. says:

    Inflation/deflation:

    If someone owns a German car one part of which fails, a critical part, that part is not available from Germany, what is the value of the “stuff,” the car?

    Going one step further, what is the value of the note on the car if the owner of said car cannot get to work for an income?

    Looks like destruction of stuff and money all in one package. The velocity of the money in the auto note is zero, even if the auto is repossessed the collateral has zero value at worst and a rapidly depreciating value at best.

    Germany makes a lot of “stuff,” some of the finest machine tools in the world used by the entire world; no spare part, zero value, zero cash flow.

    Pipeline mess looks like a problem.

    Dennis L.

    Dennis L.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I am afraid you are right. If you can’t get parts for a German car, that is a problem. If the purchaser of the car cannot make payments on a loan, that is a problem. If the value of the car goes to zero, that is a problem as well.

      Fortunately, there are usually quite a few “junked” cars that are taken out of use in accidents. Parts can be taken off of them.

      I worry about missing water pumps, however. And tires not being available. (Other types might work, if they are available.) The big batteries for EVs could become a problem, too.

      • we will also see an increase of thefts of cars for parts too.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Good point!

      • Dennis L. says:

        I am not an auto expert, I do sometimes follow people on YouTube who fix cars, Watch Wes Work is one such channel. He is a former mechanical engineer, relatively young and diagnosing issues requires one or more maintenance computers.

        These things are very complex and I have heard comments regarding German cars that they are to be leased and abandoned afterward, too difficult to maintain.

        I am the optimist, looking at a large BobCat, Tier 4, my older one is very simple, concerned about maintenance costs. My modest JD is a moving computer, requires a JD technician. Even a Gator is complex.

        This stuff is very difficult to repair and even presently parts are very hard to source and some of them when they arrive new are DOA.

        Dennis L.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          These are big machines you are referring to. I can imagine parts will be a bigger problem for them.

      • All I know basic replacement parts are essential..for my car I change my battery every 2-3 years, never mind car fluids like transmission and brake fluid, coolant with numerous other parts that make it operate.
        Gasoline is just one component. You mentioned tires, Gail, and Wasn’t it Michael Ruppert in collapse that mentioned it takes 13 gallons of Petro to make one?
        Looks as if this will be another invention that will be forgotten without the cornucopia of energy resources we currently enjoy

      • Fred says:

        Complexity in modern cars (everything really) is horrendous. Friends have a new SUV with rain sensing wipers that require sensors in the windscreen. They got a chip in the windscreen and were told they were very lucky it could be repaired, as a new screen was (a) horrendously expensive and (b) on a 3 month wait time.

        Like other similar systems the car was designed with the assumption of a working, JIT supply chain, which we clearly no longer have and which is never coming back.

        I’m pondering whether to buy a 20 year old, pre-computer car as a backup. It will have age related issues, but can at least be worked on with scavenged parts.

        • Lidia17 says:

          I thought about that, but the problem with pre-computer cars is going to be that all the gasoline refineries, delivery trucks, and gas stations aren’t themselves going to be pre-computer. They aren’t going to be able to operate on scavenged parts to the extent that an old car can.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            You just took a shovel and caved in the back of the heads of the Doomie Preppers.

            But they’ll recover… block that out … and continue to search on the used vehicle sites for a 1974 Buick Lesabre with hand crank windows

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Where will you get the petrol, the lubricants, the motor oil etc…

        • reante says:

          Consider a manual Ford ranger from the 90’s with the 4cyl Lima engine. Those things are rock solid if they’ve been taken care of. Dirt cheap. If you look hard enough you can get one in 4wd too. A nice 4wd truck might set you back 5K. Super simple to work on, parts everywhere.

    • MM says:

      Not being resident bur from what I see the US government does not use German cars. So what you say is baseless.

  38. Fast Eddy says:

    How did this guy know right after the twin towers collapsed, that it was due to structural failure because the fires were “just too intense”?

    Never in history has a steel building collapsed as a result of fire, but this guy happened to make that conclusion right after it happened.

    This crisis actor immediately put out the narrative they wanted to set – that the buildings collapsed because the jet fuel melted the steel.

    https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/48897

    Listen to that guy… does he seem to be acting?

    • Withnail says:

      Steel structures have in fact collapsed as a result of fire. Heat will considerably weaken steel.

      • Tim Groves says:

        Are you a structural engineer then? Or a troll? Or a bot? Or are you just a somewhat sincere ordinary layman giving your honest personal opinion there?

        Brian Johnson answered this very question on Quora a couple of years ago and made some salient points, which I will now share here free of charge. Brian wrote:

        On Wikipedia there are 85 major high rise fires listed. Only two others collapsed due to the fires and they did not fall straight down, they fell over. There should be no reason for the fires to be hotter than 800 degrees and yet days later the fire was above 1350 degree in the rubble. A large bomber flew into the Empire State Building in fog during the Second World War and it did not fall down. The answers are not sound. They disobey physics. A fire cannot burn hotter than the materials that are burning burn at unless there is a blast of air stoking them. At 800 degrees steel is still strong. Either there were materials in the building that should not have been there that would burn at the required temperature to melt steel, or the conclusions as to why the WTC collapsed are fabricated.

        I am an engineer and when you design anything fire is a major facet in the design. There would simply be no way that any materials that would cause this to happen would be incorporated into the buildings design. Great measures are taken to ensure that fire retardant materials are incorporated into the designs. The reports do not explain how the fire could have gotten so hot. If the design engineers combined materials that would collectively burn at extreme temperatures, then the engineers are guilty of gross misconduct. The combinations of materials are usually tested together to ensure this does not happen. They would have run design tests to ensure that if a plane hit the buildings they would not fall. If they did not do this and design the buildings properly, then they would be guilty of negligence. These are normal things that are part of the design process and there are formulas used to present just such occurrences that are used.

        There would have also been burn tests to ensure that if a fire started it would be suppressed. There should have been an extensive fire suppression system that should have soaked the entire building and continued soaking it until the system was shut down. No one was coming out the towers soaking wet. Either the fire suppression system had been turned off, or it was severely malfunctioning. I have been in building when their is a fire and the sprinklers come on all over the building. The water fire suppression pipes would have been damaged and water would have come pouring out soaking several floors with water. None of this happened. It seemed that the buildings had no fire suppression systems. All the water from the fire suppression systems above the site of the fire would have soaked the level where the fire was. The smoke coming out of the building should have been mostly white from the steam. It was pure black indicating there was no fire suppression at all!

        • lurker says:

          Thanks Tim. The only thing I’d add to that is that te Twin Towers were specifically designed to withstand an airplane impact, according to a promotional video I saw somewhere that was made when the building was first constructed (as the engineer notes should have happened).

          • Withnail says:

            not designed for the size of the plane that hit them.

            • drb753 says:

              I will even object to that. That day I had gone to work by bicycle. On my way back, being a scientist, I sought to model the stuff that I was going to see on TV that night. Despite the internet being nearly unresponsive I was able to find details about the towers structure, with the columns on the outside.

              At night, the scene was played over and over where a Boeing on final would disappear inside a scraper. I was shocked to see no breech. I watched it over and over, no breech. Not even the windows between the columns were broken. the airplane disappeared into an intact scraper, and a huge flame came out the other side.

              I long thought about it, and once youtube came along I sought videos of that night. Even though it was played at least a dozen times that night (on CNN), that video never surfaced. I could find some videos, always with a breech, and not at all like the clear sky video I had seen. I concluded that the video was fake, and that it was plausible no airplanes were involved that day.

        • Cromagnon says:

          Well stated

          As I repeat so often.

          The world is not what we think it is.

          May the few who realize it get to make their passage between realms without incident. I want to lift drinking horns with old souls who understood the true texture of the simacrulum.

          Be encouraged, if ancient texts are literally interpreted ( as it is rapidly becoming evident they should be) our next run in this superficial reality may well include vapor canopies, greatly enhanced physical abilities and life trajectories where some of us at least, get to be heros.

        • Tsubion says:

          Tim… just because an engineer makes a case on Quora (based on his recall of a mix of education, indoctrination, some experience etc) … doesn’t make it so.

          I have also heard from steel workers (who I trust more than engineers by the way) that steel columns can and do, in fact, weaken (weaken being the key word here) enough to cause critical collapse when sufficient heat is applied.

          And the office materials were obviously not very fire-resistent since everyone could see the red hot fires on the day. Something was burning for quite some time before the first column caved in.

          That’s all it takes.

          And the sprinkler system was not working. Either due to damage or becuase they were deliberately switched off so that a collapse could be triggered.

          There are so many parts to the puzzle that all have to function perfectly on the day for the perps to pull off such an incredible magic trick.

          Maybe that’s why the Dancing Israelis were high fiving while everyone else was running around with their hair on fire (literally).

          The only way the perps could be sure everything would occur as planned would be to use explosives. And every building would have to be rigged to perfection months before The Event.

          There is NO way they could plan for debris hitting building 7… so either that was rigged too and maybe a plane was planned for that building too ( I highly doubt this) or Larry simply gave the order to “pull it” on the day because why not. He was clearing a plot of land afterall.

          Those little dicrepancies are what drive people nuts pooring over video after video (especially the pentagon) trying to ascertain what really happened.

          And that’s my point… even engineers can be horribly wrong and do, in fact, argue among themselves over such issues.

          So… who to believe?

          I believe there was preplanned intent to demolish the worn out buildings and replace them with the One World Tower (two become one) as part of a ritual bringing in the new order.

          And I think we’re getting close to a public reveal of who the perps really are ( globalists / banksters… whatever you want to call them) and their minions will be laid bare awaiting punishment from the rabid hordes.

          See… I can’t help it… optimist.

          • Tim Groves says:

            Controlled demolition accompanied by a stage show.

            Everyone who was anyone was talking about this around 2004~2006 and most were in agreement that all three WTC skyscrapers were “pulled,” with Buildings 1 & 2 dropped in an novel way to make it look like plane crashes, jet fuel and office fires were the culprit, while Building 7 was taken down in the conventional way.

            But as to exactly who dunnit and precisely how it was done, no consensus has been formed. Some of us are waiting the fall of the current ruling dynasty, accompanied by revolutionary violence, “Nuremberg” style trials and a peace and reconciliation commission to reveal all that.

            Others have gone down the rabbit hole and looked at various evidence and made (hopefully) educated guesses.

            I’ve given up on the truth ever emerging into the full light of day. But on the other hand, now that he’s had his gas pipes blown up, Putin may reveal all. That would be sweet revenge indeed!!

            Or the Harley Guy may come forward and admit he was crisis acting that day.

            My own personal hunch is that they didn’t use planes. Far too much could have gone wrong. And they didn’t need to use planes as they could fool most TV audiences and newspaper readers in any case. So they faked that in much the same way as they faked the moon landings.

            How much else they faked I have no idea. CTG’s idea that all the world’s a simulation feels intuitively wrong to me. But all the world’s a fake stage seems closer to the truth.

            • Tsubion says:

              Thanks Tim (for being gentle that is).

              I have flip-flopped so much on this issue because even what I consider to be the best possible investigators on the subject are unable to nail down specific details conclusively.

              It all feels like so many psy-ops all rolled into one. The same veil of distraction clouded the Covid nonsense and I feel I have a better understanding of the history there. I am firmly in the no virus camp which is still jarring for many people. But like I said… I’ve read the history.

              No planes felt like a similar distraction psyop to me at first. There are subtle details that need to be cleared up. The footage of the first plane coming in clearly shows people on the scene reacting to the sound of a plane coming in overhead. How would you fake that?

              Same with fallen lamposts at the pentagon. I don’t believe a plane can fly that low at high speed and not crash. So if a missile was used (P-700 Granit) then who cut the lamposts?

              Do you see how much foreplanning would be required for the stageshow to go without a hitch that day?

              Do you believe the airplane shaped holes in the towers were created by shaped charges carefully arranged by the Isreali “art students” that happened to be there shortly before The Event?

              I just don’t think that’s possible.

              I’m partial to the idea that the planes were drones, but no planes is going too far. It just leads to too many ridiculous loose ends.

              It’s easier to slam a couple a planes into some buildings. And then manufacture a stageshow around all of that.

            • postkey
              postkey says:

              “ . . . out of the 4000 Israelis believed to have worked in and around the WTC and the Pentagon only FIVE died. 5/4000 Israelis. Statistically, with no forewarning about 10% (ie 400 of 4000) would have died; a toll as low as 200-300/4000 would not convincingly indicate foreknowledge. But only FIVE Israelis died and two of the five were aboard the allegedly hijacked flights; thus only three Israelis died in the WTC itself on 9/11. NB – this applies to Israeli nationals, NOT American Jews. Many Jews died in the WTC on 9/11.” ?
              https://wikispooks.com/wiki/9-11/Israel_did_it

              “University of Chicago professor Allan Poe dushman concluded examination of the option
              23:27 trading leading up to September 11th reveals that there was an unusually high level of put buying this finding is
              23:33 consistent with informed investors having traded options in advance of the attacks in detecting abnormal trading
              activities in option markets researchers at the University of Zurich used econometrics methods to confirm unusual
              23:47 put option activity on the stocks of key Airlines bank and reinsurers in the weeks prior to
              23:52 9/11 and in was their abnormal trading in the S&P 500 index options prior to 9/11”?
              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQTyj0g3m_E

              ” . . . but from my
              00:18 close-up inspection there’s no evidence
              00:20 of a plane having crashed anywhere near
              00:22 the Pentagon the only site is the actual
              00:26 side of the building that’s crashed in
              00:27 and as I said the only pieces left
              00:30 that you can see are small enough that
              00:32 you could pick up in your hand there are
              00:34 no large tail sections wing sections a
              00:37 fuselage nothing like that anywhere . . . “

            • Fast Eddy says:

              See the missile? https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/47272

              Not much left to discuss after watching that

          • JMS says:

            The names of the tenants of building 7 may give us some clue as to the reasons for its demolition. Was the event an expedient way to shred tons of inconvenient paper/bytes?

            https://wtc7.net/background.html

          • Fast Eddy says:

            I have also heard from steel workers (who I trust more than engineers by the way)

            Why would you trust them more than an engineer?

        • Withnail says:

          days later the fire was above 1350 degree in the rubble.

          This is simply made-up nonsense.

      • banned says:

        That is true. Heat does considerably weaken steel. Steel is not all that.

        Any engineer that uses steel as a material understands that and designs appropriately. In high rise buildings “fire proofing” is applied to all the steel-basically lightweight concrete- to protect the steel from the effects of fire.

        The fires in the twin towers did not burn long and the fire was not that hot but lets ignore that and say we had a fire induced catastrophic failure where the fires were. All the steel below was at full strength. The top of the building should have deflected off the remaining structure below.

        What seems apparent but flys in the face of all we know about materials is the mass of the upper floors was so powerful it SHEARED off the flanges coming down straight as a function of the FORCE of gravity at free fall velocity. The steel flanges had considerable SHEAR STRENGTH.

        There was not enough potential energy in the mass of the upper floors with gravity to shear off the flanges. Not even close. But if it had occured two things would have also occured. 1. the upper floors would have been DEFLECTED. Like billiard balls when one object with velocity and mass attempts to occupy the same space as another they both DEFLECT. 2The collapse would have been SLOWED by the resistance of the steel below not free fall velocity.

        The twin towers were basically a inner and outer steel tube the inner tube being the stronger and quite massive. If a debris PANCAKE COLLAPSED somehow it should have left at least the inner steel tube as the rather thin concrete slabs on each floor slammed down. A interesting fact. The L flanges that held up each of the concrete floors were also the metal that connected the blocks of the inner steel tube. They got double duty out of the flange. But if it was a pancake collapse the shear would occur at the junction of the horizontal and vertical part of the flange leaving the vertical part of the flange used as a plate to connect the blocks of the inner square tube intact. The inner steel tube would have remained like a spike poking through a pillow. But there simply wasnt a fraction of the energy neccesary in gravity and mass to shear those flange/plates let alone even touch the vertical plate part. The vertical plate part was in the opposite axis of gravity no gravity/momentum could possibly shear it and if those flanges were not sheared the floors would have held. We can be truthful -the weight from about three stories of that building If the inner and outer steel was included) would collapse the slab floors inbetween the inner elevator shaft square tube and the outer tube. It would have taken time not free fall and the inner tube at a minimum would have remained standing. Another issuue the upper part of the building above the exposion didnt just turn to rubble to uniformly fall upon the concrete slabs for a completely uniform gravity/momentum force shearing each flange at exactly the same time for a collapse into footprint at freefall V. If the upper steel inner tube section was somehow detached by the explosion it would have remained intact. We can clearly see the upper section has horizontal velocity (tilting) in the first part of the collapse indicating that inner steel tube has been severed then the whole thing just goes poof.

        Give me a break.

        All of which is neither here nor there. The temperatures recorded after 911 in the debris far exceeded any possibility of that short not very hot fire imparting that much thermal energy. Their are numerous examples of melted steel from twin tower which no structure fire can do.

        There was a powerful energy source at 911 other than the explosion and fire. That energy was applied in a very short time period at key structural points ala the very strong square inner tube/elevator shaft plate/flanges. Which is exactly where the satellites saw temperatures of just below 2000f for weeks and where the firefighters encountered pools of molten steel.

        • Withnail says:

          There was not enough potential energy in the mass of the upper floors with gravity to shear off the flanges. Not even close

          Of course there was, it was enormously heavy

        • reante says:

          banned

          fine mechanical refutation of the pancake collapse theory, thank you.

          I’m however partial to the plasma/Hutchison effect theory of anomalous steel formations, rather than molten metal. Not sold on the high-temperature claims.

          • banned says:

            There is a lot of unexplained phenomena. The A&E for 911 truth explanation has holes too. My belief is new technology of some sort. Which of course starts getting pretty far from the planes hit-building fall down crowd.

            • reante says:

              That’s my belief, too, which also explains all the leave-no-trace industrial sabotage that’s ramped up over the last few years. Hasn’t Russia been referencing new weapons recently? Still, it’s just stealth weaponry. Nukes are still the top dog.

        • Withnail says:

          Which is exactly where the satellites saw temperatures of just below 2000f for weeks

          No such temperatures were seen by satellite.

          and where the firefighters encountered pools of molten steel.

          They did not.

          • banned says:

            Here is testimony by hundreds of molten steel at twin towers including first responders.

            https://www.bitchute.com/video/mcH4EBXHcJ8/

            • Withnail says:

              I dont care about ‘testimony’. I need evidence and there is none.

            • reante says:

              I have a hard time with this point. I don’t understand the process by which such temperatures could have been created. Judy Wood always suggested that people didn’t have an ontological referent for the plasma, having never known it before, so their minds translated it as molten metal because we have referents for that. That’s a compelling idea to me based on the lingering field effects of a DEW that violently strips electrons. That I can understand. Without further explication, the temperatures I cannot.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              This is all fake… the first guy is an actor … the second bit with the cars is just utter BS… i didn’t watch any further https://www.bitchute.com/video/mcH4EBXHcJ8/

          • banned says:

            https://themillenniumreport.com/2014/08/irrefutable-molten-steel-evidence-indicates-inside-job-proves-911-commission-report-fraudulent/

            “The high-temperature phenomena at Ground Zero are documented by various sources:

            Bechtel engineers, responsible for safety at Ground Zero, wrote in theJournal of the American Society of Safety Engineers: “The debris pile at Ground Zero was always tremendously hot. Thermal measurements taken by helicopter each day showed underground temperatures ranging from 400ºF to more than 2,800ºF.”

            The fact that high-temperature phenomena were an important issue at Ground Zero is underscored by the large number of thermal images acquired: images by SPOT, MTI,AVIRIS/NASA, “Twin Otter”/U.S. Army, and at least 25 images by EarthData, taken between Sept. 16 and Oct. 25. In addition, temperature measurements by helicopter weretaken each day, and the firefighters used onsite sensors too.

            Many witnesses, including rescue personnel and firefighters working on the piles, described the phenomenon of “molten steel.” Terms used in witness statements are, for example, “molten steel,” beams “dripping from molten steel,” “molten steel … like you’re in a foundry. Like lava, from a volcano.” A photograph taken on September 27 by a Ground Zero worker shows an excavating machine lifting debris from the WTC wreckage dripping yellow/orange molten metal.”

      • postkey
        postkey says:

        ” planes were flown into buildings on 9/11.”?
        Modeled?
        ” . . . videos not fake, but somethings about the planes were fake . . . “?
        https://www.richplanet.net/richp_genre.php?ref=291&part=1&gen=3

      • Fast Eddy says:

        This is one of the top physics scientific journals in the world https://euinstitute.net/journals/

        Here are the findings of some top engineers which was published in that journal:

        chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.europhysicsnews.org/articles/epn/pdf/2016/04/epn2016-47-4.pdf

        So you have this paper vs the governments claims….

        But you also know the government has murdered people in the past and lied … WMD, Operation Gladio … JFK vetoed Operation Northwoods — which was a plan to kill Americans and blame that on Castro to justify an invasion of Cuba…

        Hmmmm…. no?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        It is quite difficult to convince a person that they’ve been played…

        Did you see that Canadian actress who is vax-f789ed… she says she’d do it all over again.

        Indeed extremely hard to convince someone that they’ve been played… so difficult that she’s likely going to get the next booster… and pay with her life…

        Usually if you show someone evidence that they’ve been played — they don’t thank you — oh no — never — they generally respond by spitting venom and wishing you were dead.

        People like that… will forever remain MOREONS… in fact that’s the most pronounced symptom of a MOREON – inability to learn. Inability to accept that one has been played.

        An intelligent person would stand back and think about it … then laugh and say — I can’t believe I was so f789ing stooopid! Kinda like how you might laugh at a photo of yourself in bell bottoms 🙂

    • Tsubion says:

      The other buildings were NOT hit by a missile (plane) at great speed knocking the cladding off the central core of steel columns.

      Any metal worker worth their salt will tell you that… without the cladding in place… a reasonably hot fire (which the office material provided) is enough to weaken one of the columns and set off a cascading pancake collapse.

      These micro-details are always left out by “truthers” who then proceed with calling you out as a govt shill etc (because the documentaries they watched on Youtube can’t possibly be wrong or, in fact, propaganda to create the “Truth Movement” in America and beyond).

      The same also applies to Building 7. Truthers will profess that building 7 was NOT hit by a plane, therefore should NOT have come down in similar fashion to the twin towers.

      Building 7 was hit by massive chunks of flaming debris from one of the other towers. Again, the cladding was blown off the entral columns. Again, the office fires were high temp enough to weaken one of the columns. The building implodes above the column and from the foor where the fires were started.

      No need for silly talk about jet fuel burning temps etc which is asinine. They simply acted as a firestarter. End of story.

      Beyond that though… there is plenty of material for konspiracy theists to get their teeth sunk into…

      Lucky Larry became the owner knowing full well that the buildings had to be demolished due to asbestos regulations. And because they were full of asbestos from tip to toe… demolition was a no go!

      What a conumdrum for poor Larry!

      Lets just say a magical scenario materialized to make use of that juicy insurance policy he set up months before “The Event.”

      And all his buddies got what they wanted in the middle east following The Path to Persia plan laid out many years before.

      The only thing I scratch my head about to this day… and demolition experts have convinced me that it’s certainly possible but not strictly necessary… is whether or not explosives were used to bring the buildings down or not.

      Engineers will assure you that they must have been because of the rapid removal of structural material as the buildings imploded.

      Others will tell you that that would happen anyway because of the way the floors were basically hanging from hinges and brackets that instantly snapped as one floor crashes into another. They tell you the central columns would warp and snap under the intense pressures involved.

      It’s also confirmed by demo experts that they can trigger a collapse from whichever floor they choose from their control panel so… that would explain collapse starting at the expected positions if planes alone were not able to nudge things in that direction.

      But there’s no doubt in my mind that demolition was the intent either way. And the rebuilding of the tower and the wars in the middle east and the police state in America were all baked into the cake from the planning stage.

      At this point in the game… all that remains to be seen is whether elements in the US finally lay the blame at the feet of zzzionist power for all the world to see.

      It’s time to stop playing detective… scraping through the rubble looking for clues… the perps (central bankers) are laughing at Truthers fussing over the details while they run off with all the candy.

      • Tsubion says:

        And yes… crisis actors are used at all such events to control the narrative. Regular passers-by that just happen to be at the scene don’t make for good TV. They go off script, mumble nonsense, or send kisses to their mum. No… that won’t do at all. You need “players” ready to go with the correct talking points so the nine o clock news watchers can chug down the same critical soundbites on repeat for weeks on end.

      • JesseJames says:

        Tsubion, please specify the type of cladding that was in place on the structural steel of the towers. Most of the claddings are coatings, sprayed on, or epoxied, or other techniques. I cannot see how on most of the steels beams not directly impacted, this coating would ever come off.

        Even then, the steel retains strength under fire.
        Even noncombustible materials such as steel can be affected by high temperatures. However, because structural elements are not usually loaded to their full design strength, even bare steel may have sufficient load-carrying capacity to withstand the effects of fire.

        In general, structural steel retains 60% of its ambient temperature yield strength at 1,000 °F–and most building fires exceed that temperature at some point.

        The standard ASTM fire test uses constantly increasing temperatures, assuming that the fire has an infinite supply of fuel and the members are loaded to full design load. When building codes specify fire-resistant construction based on the results of these tests, structural steel elements must be insulated with protective materials.

        These steel structures are designed with safety margins, ensuring that even when the strength is compromised, adequate load bearing strength is maintained.

        While I am not a structural engineer, I am an engineer and I know safety margins are required to ensure yield is not exceeded. I’ll believe engineering analyses over some cluck play actor proclaiming something anyday.

        • Tsubion says:

          The cladding would be whatever was in vogue at the time of the Twin Tower construction… obviously.

          Which is a long time ago… and I assume techniques have improved since then.

          I’ve seen modern types of cladding in far more recent construction projects, but have no idea what they used back then or if NIST is correct in making such assertions.

          It’s an interesting puzzle, that’s all.

          When we hear that the cladding was blown off (NIST report) are you saying that it’s an impossibility and that all other structural engineers keep quiet on the subject?

          If that didn’t happen – couldn’t happen in any way – then we move to explosive controlled demolition using nanothermite and end of discussion, yes?

          But… lets just say that one column was exposed to high temps for long enough. And it weakened. Are you saying that the thousands of tons of material sustained by the column are to be ignored?

          Or is there some kind of weight distribution magic that would keep the building upright?

          I’ve heard very convincing arguments from both sides. From structural engineers and architects. And it’s still not clear who is telling the truth.

          Tim thinks there were no planes!

          What say you?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Oh – like this?

        https://youtu.be/-h4Eu-Ynysk

        Perhaps you might consultant an engineer or architect — asking an iron worker is like asking the janitor at a hospital for his opinion on brain surgery

        https://youtu.be/IYUYya6bPGw?t=406

        WMD anyone? How many did that lie kill? A lot more than 911

    • neil says:

      High temperature reduces yield strength of steel. At 600C it will be 40-50% of the strength at 0 degrees C, depending on the exact grade

      https://www.totalmateria.com/page.aspx?ID=CheckArticle&site=kts&LN=AR&NM=264

      https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/metal-temperature-strength-d_1353.html

      Jet fuel burns at about 600C
      https://www.irpa.net/members/P08.32fp.pdf

      https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-temperature-yield-strength-curve-for-structural-steel-under-high-temperature_fig1_275540723#:~:text=3%2C%20the%20average%20temperatures%20of,rises%20from%20500%20to%20550%20

      “The sudden change of the bending of the test specimen occurred later in the fire test also illustrates that the steel beam will lose its loadbearing capacity when its average temperature reaches between 500 and 550 . In other words, the bending of the test specimen will exceed the limiting deflection in the fire test when its temperature is between 500 and 550….”

      • banned says:

        If the initial heat during the explosion was sustained for a hour or so the steel could have perhaps gotten up to those temperatures perhaps. But the 600 degree source was only there for seconds.That puny little low temp fire didnt. Steel has density and mass just because a 600 degree source is there doesnt mean the steel goes to 600 degrees instantly anymore than your turkey cooks in 10 seconds on thanksgiving. Now add fireproofing a coating used on all structural high rise steel specifically applied to slow a fires increase of temperature into the steel.. Now explain molten steel and the residual temps in the debris far above 600.

        Not enough fuel. Not enough time. Not enough energy. If it had burned hot for weeks maybe.

        The multi million volume NIST report on the twin towers was actually fairly honest compared to the BS of the B7 report. Some combination of fire and mechanical energy unknown. In other words it dont make sense we cant detail the collapse mechanism.

        • Tsubion says:

          Nukes in the basement??

          DEW (Directed Energy Weapons)??

          No Planes??

          I sense Intel Agency divert and distract techniques at work here.

          The whole enchilada wreaks from head to toe.

          It was an insurance scam…

          Hijackers with very, very sharp box cutters did the whole thing…

          Swings and roundabouts…

          Getting nowhere.

          Covid. Same.

          Just a bunch of thieves running rings around the little people because they dare not look up the ladder.

          • banned says:

            I dont believe any pilot that couldnt fly a cessna could make those banking turns into the towers at max speed at sea level. let alone twice. I thought a computer may have been flying. No planes is a possibility.

            • Foolish Fitz says:

              Given the claimed speed of the aircraft, wouldn’t the wings have been ripped off, long before hitting the claimed buildings, at the claimed altitude?

              WTC7, surely thermite?

              Nothing else known explains 89 columns failing at the same split second(1 & 2 as well probably, given the dust samples).

              NIST 2 claims a new phenomenon(laws of physics need not apply), after forgetting building 7 in their original report, which is strange when you look at who had offices there.

              Then there is the steel.

              So much steel.

              And then, no steel.

              What happened to the steel(or the science)?

              https://youtu.be/odg6Tf1iMo0

              5 unique events in single day, including at least 2 evaporating planes. Really?

              No, hold up, 6 unique events.

              After being in a plane that flew into a building and exploded, releasing such a force of energy, at such a high temperature, that it reduces the building to rubble in seconds, a slightly scorched passport flutters down and is duly found, which wraps the whole case up, fitting the pre arranged narrative perfectly.

              For those worried about a potential nuclear war, have you considered making something out of passports?
              They appear uniquely sturdy.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Let’s see what 10,000+ Engineers Architects etc… have to say

        https://youtu.be/IYUYya6bPGw?t=406

        BTW – my brother is an architect – he worked on many tall buildings while employed by SOM in Houston… he has insisted from day one that this was a controlled demolition … when I asked if he’d sign on with that group — he said nope — what’s the point? Also he does a lot of government work… and he risks losing those contracts…

        Yet 10,000 of these men and women signed on … they do not do such a thing flippantly.

        On the fifteenth anniversary of 9/11, the European Scientific Journal published an article in which the organization stated that they believe the collapse of the Twin Towers in New York City were the result of controlled demolition, not the result of planes crashing into them.

        The Journal, a publication of the European Scientific Institute (ESI), published the article titled, “15 Years Later: On the Physics of High-Rise Building Collapses.”

        AnonHQ.com reports:

        The study was written in collaboration by Steven Jones of Brigham Young University (now retired), Robert Korol of McMaster University – a Mechanical Design Engineer in the aerospace industry, Anthony Szamboti, and Ted Walter of Architects & Engineers for 9/11 Truth. The highly-sourced study breaks down the scientific evidence while revealing the discrepancies in NIST’s official report, and we suggest our readers – especially the skeptics – read it in its entirety.

        One of the most important testimonies on the collapse of the World Trade Towers that was brought to attention in the study comes from the head structural engineer of the towers, John Skilling. It is apparently not enough for skeptics to take the findings of thousands of architects and engineers seriously, but should a skeptic choose not to at least consider the expertise of one of the men who built the WTC towers, then they are purposefully remaining blind.

        Every sort of catastrophe that can happen to a high-rise building has to be taken into consideration during the design and construction processes, including the impact of an airplane. According to a 1993 report from The Seattle Times, the Trade Towers were analyzed years ago, after concern was raised over a case where an airplane hit the Empire State Building. It was concluded at the time that the Trade Towers could withstand the impact of a Boeing 707.

        https://thewashingtonstandard.com/european-scientific-journal-911-controlled-demolition/

        It amazes me that people trust the government on this — remember WMD???? hahahaha

        Remember Operation Gladio — what about Operation Northwoods…

        Oh and remember they told you the injections would stop you from getting covid … and that they were safe.

        You know why they can continue to lie to the hordes… it’s because Hordes are MOREONS>.. utter f789ing MOREONS.

        Please explain what we are looking at here https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/47272

    • MM says:

      At the eve of that day George Bush presented Osama bin Laden as the perpetrator.
      For NS after three days we do not have found an ID card yet even if the entire north and baltic sea is basically a single ear and eye for just about any ant that goes in and out.
      The volume knob is just ramped up so high that there are frequent false alarms for submarines or ships that later can not even be found.

  39. Fast Eddy says:

    Doomie P’s… I recommend you work out an exit plan… when you deny the mob food .. it won’t be pretty… watch how many times this guy stabs the cop….

    WARNING VIEWER DISCRETION ADVISED⚠️

    EMS Lieutenant Alison Russo-Elling, was stabbed to death in an unprovoked attack while on duty and standing outside of FDNY EMS Station 49.

    She was taken to Mount Sinai Queens Hospital, where she was pronounced dead.

    When the suspect was captured by police “he had no trace of emotion on his face”.

    VIDEO https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/40127

    • Tsubion says:

      So she died from the “jab” … or rather multiple “booster jabs” to make sure the job got done.

      Not sure which one is worse. It’s all sudden death… in the end.

      For religious types… isn’t this close to portals opening, unleashing demons to feed on the lamb?

      Or maybe it’s the candy-like Fent that’s going around?

  40. Fast Eddy says:

    Hahaha… too late … time to pay for our sins against the animals…

    Senate Passes Rand Paul’s Bill to Put an End to Animal Testing Mandates

    “The law [as it stands] perversely requires drug developers to test on animals, which often means killing them after the test is over.”

    “This [new] law will allow the option of not doing animal testing. It’s not that it will forbid and prevent any animal testing. It simply will allow the option of bringing drugs to market without sacrificing animals if we don’t need to.”

    Rumble (https://rumble.com/v1m2riy-senate-passes-rand-pauls-bill-to-put-an-end-animal-testing-mandates.html)

  41. I AM THE MOB says:

    High Inflation + High Interest Rate + Low Productivity + Low Growth = BAU LITE!!!

    https://i.redd.it/d6k1srs3mih21.gif

  42. Fast Eddy says:

    Wow – this is some explosive stuff from one of the UK’s top cardiologists https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/48822

  43. Lastcall says:

    Listened to woke Radio NZ news for first time in over 3 years.
    Hard not to be sick.

    1st article; using CNN to report on hurricane Ian hitting Florida.
    2nd article; Putin running a dictatorship in Russia
    3rd article; Shania Twain talks about sexism in her career, and long Convid
    4th article; sexist behaviour in Aussie Atarctic program
    5th article; school holiday traffic warnings
    6th article; who knows,had to stagger to radio to switch off.

    You would imagine European energy crisis, collapse of pound, excess deaths, support payments to Zelenchi would figure inthere, or maybe even the collapsing NZ economy/housing market?
    Does anyone else anywhere inthe world listen to CNN?
    Joe Rogan sorted them out.
    Too funny.

  44. Fast Eddy says:

    Pro jab presstitute says “Long live science”. It lived longer than she did. Dead after her 3rd dose

    https://twitter.com/Sgtnewsnetwork/status/1575473446183702529?s=20&t=vqQ0-sMDOW0KuBQ4c5YC-Q

  45. Tim Groves says:

    Diima, the Military Summary channel guy in Belarus, is predicting a major Russian offensive from the north and the west against Ukrainian controlled areas in the Kharkov and Donbass areas beginning as early as this weekend.

    Also, he speculates that up to 120,000 Russian troops may be going to Belarus to threaten the western Ukraine, which will draw Ukrainian forces away from the east, and even an occupation of the areas of Ukraine adjacent to Poland in order to cut Ukraine off from Western arms and other supplies.

    17 m 40 s
    https://rumble.com/v1m0voo-ukraine.-military-summary-and-analysis-29.09.2022.html

    • reante says:

      Yeah now that Russian war theater has annexed these territories they actually have to act like they control them all, plus establish bufferlands that exceed the current ranges of the NATO gifts that keep on giving. The better the gifts the bigger the bufferlands and subsequent annexations all the way west. Rinse and repeat NATO incompetently shooting itself in the foot and the babes in the wood buy it hook, line and sinker. The cherry on top would be Russia ameliorating the famines by donating, or selling well below market, the remainder of this year’s Ukrainian agricultural exports.

    • MM says:

      Ukraine needs to join NATO today to prevent that from happening.
      Stoltenberg has announced a speech for tonight:
      https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_207793.htm

  46. Fast Eddy says:

    Wow that Ukey War and now the ‘sabotage of the pipelines’ (why would any country do that — it’s global suicide right?) …. sure are useful!

    But this part is correct:

    What was the cause of these imbalances? The answer is simple: energy costs. Britain imports a lot of energy. When the cost of energy rises, imports balloon and the trade balance collapses. These higher costs are passed on to consumers and henceforth comes inflation. This is a crisis not simply facing Britain but all of Europe; Britain fell first because it was the slowest animal in the pack.

    https://dailysceptic.org/2022/09/29/the-real-cause-of-britains-economic-woes/

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Good points!

Comments are closed.