Today’s Energy Crisis Is Very Different from the Energy Crisis of 2005

Back in 2005, the world economy was “humming along.” World growth in energy consumption per capita was rising at 2.3% per year in the 2001 to 2005 period. China had been added to the World Trade Organization in December 2001, ramping up its demand for all kinds of fossil fuels. There was also a bubble in the US housing market, brought on by low interest rates and loose underwriting standards.

Figure 1. World primary energy consumption per capita based on BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

The problem in 2005, as now, was inflation in energy costs that was feeding through to inflation in general. Inflation in food prices was especially a problem. The Federal Reserve chose to fix the problem by raising the Federal Funds interest rate from 1.00% to 5.25% between June 30, 2004 and June 30, 2006.

Now, the world is facing a very different problem. High energy prices are again feeding over to food prices and to inflation in general. But the underlying trend in energy consumption is very different. The growth rate in world energy consumption per capita was 2.3% per year in the 2001 to 2005 period, but energy consumption per capita for the period 2017 to 2021 seems to be slightly shrinking at minus 0.4% per year. The world seems to already be on the edge of recession.

The Federal Reserve seems to be using a similar interest rate approach now, in very different circumstances. In this post, I will try to explain why I don’t think that this approach will produce the desired outcome.

[1] The 2004 to 2006 interest rate hikes didn’t lead to lower oil prices until after July 2008.

It is easiest to see the impact (or lack thereof) of rising interest rates by looking at average monthly world oil prices.

Figure 2. Average monthly Brent spot oil prices based on data of the US Energy Information Administration. Latest month shown is July 2022.

The US Federal Reserve began raising target interest rates in June 2004 when the average Brent oil price was only $38.22 per barrel. These interest rates stopped rising at the end of June 2006, when oil prices averaged $68.56 per barrel. Oil prices on this basis eventually reached $132.72 per barrel in July 2008. (All of these amounts are in dollars of the day, rather than being adjusted for inflation.) Thus, the highest price was over three times the price in June 2004, when the US Federal Reserve made the decision to start raising target interest rates.

Based on Figure 2 (including my notes regarding the timing of the interest rate rise), I would conclude that raising interest rates didn’t work very well at bringing down the price of oil when it was tried in the 2004 to 2006 period. Of course, the economy was growing rapidly, then. The rapid growth of the economy likely led to the very high oil price shown in mid-2008.

I expect that the result of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates now, in a low-growth world economy, might be quite different. The world’s debt bubble might pop, leading to a worse situation than the financial crisis of 2008. Indirectly, both asset prices and commodity prices, including oil prices, would tend to fall very low.

Analysts looking at the situation from strictly an energy perspective tend to miss the interconnected nature of the economy. Factors which energy analysts overlook (particularly debt becoming impossible to repay, as interest rates rise) may lead to an outcome that is pretty much the opposite result of the standard belief. The typical belief of energy analysts is that low oil supply will lead to very high prices and more oil production. In the current situation, I expect that the result might be closer to the opposite: Oil prices will fall because of financial problems brought on by the higher interest rates, and these lower oil prices will lead to even lower oil production.

[2] The purpose of the US Federal reserve raising target interest rates was to flatten the growth rate of the world economy. Looking back at Figure 1, the growth in energy consumption per capita was much lower after the Great Recession. I doubt that now in 2022, we want even lower growth (really, more shrinkage) in energy consumption per capita for future years.*

Looking at Figure 1, growth in energy consumption per capita has been very slow since the Great Recession. A person wonders: What is the point of governments and their central banks pushing the world economy down, now in 2022, when the world economy is already barely able to maintain international supply lines and provide enough diesel for all of the world’s trucks and agricultural equipment?

If the world economy is pushed downward now, what would the result be? Would some countries find themselves unable to afford fossil fuel energy products in the future? This might lead to problems both in growing and transporting food, at least for these countries. Would the whole world suffer a major crisis of some sort, such as a financial crisis? The world economy is a self-organizing system. It is difficult to forecast precisely how the situation would work out.

[3] While the growth rate in energy consumption per capita was much lower after 2008, the price of crude oil quickly bounced back to over $120 per barrel in inflation-adjusted prices in the 2011-2013 time frame.

Figure 3 shows that oil prices immediately bounced back up after the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Quantitative Easing (QE), which the US Federal Reserve began in late 2008, helped energy prices to shoot back up again. QE helped keep the cost of borrowing by governments low, allowing governments to run larger deficits than might otherwise have been possible without interest rates rising. These higher deficits added to the demand for commodities of all types, including oil, thus raising prices.

Figure 3. Average annual oil prices inflation-adjusted oil prices based on data from BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy. Amounts shown are Brent equivalent spot prices.

The chart above shows average annual Brent oil prices through 2021. The above chart does not show 2022 prices. The current Brent oil price is about $91 per barrel. So, oil prices today are a little higher than they have been recently, but they are nowhere nearly as high as they were in the 2011 to 2013 period or in the late 1970s. The extreme reaction we are seeing is very strange. The problem seems to be much more than oil prices, by themselves.

[4] High prices in the 2006 to 2013 period allowed the rise of unconventional oil production. These high oil prices also helped keep conventional oil production from falling after 2005.

It is difficult to find detail on the precise amount of unconventional oil, but some countries are known for their unconventional oil production. For example, the US has become a leader in the extraction of tight oil from shale formations. Canada also produces a little tight oil, but it also produces quite a bit of very heavy oil from the oil sands. Venezuela produces a different type of very heavy oil. Brazil produces crude oil from under the salt layer of the ocean, sometimes called pre-salt crude oil. These unconventional types of extraction tend to be expensive.

Figure 4 shows world oil production for various combinations of countries. The top line is total world crude oil production. The bottom gray line approximates world total conventional oil production. Unconventional oil production has been rising since, say, 2010, so this approximation is better for years 2010 and subsequent years on the chart, than it is for earlier years.

Figure 4. Crude and condensate oil production based on international data of the US Energy Information Administration. The lower lines subtract the full amount of crude and condensate production for the countries listed. These countries have substantial amounts of unconventional oil production, but they may also have some conventional production.

From this chart, it appears that world conventional oil production leveled off after 2005. Some people (often referred to as “Peak Oilers”) were concerned that conventional oil production would reach a peak and begin to decline, starting shortly after 2005.

The thing that seems to have kept production from falling after 2005 is the steep rise in oil prices in the 2004 to 2008 period. Figure 3 shows that oil prices were quite low between 1986 and 2003. Once oil prices began to rise in 2004 and 2005, oil companies found that they had enough revenue that they could start adopting more intensive (and expensive) extraction techniques. This allowed more oil to be extracted from existing conventional oil fields. Of course, diminishing returns still set in, even with these more intensive techniques.

These diminishing returns are probably a major reason that conventional oil production started to fall in 2019. Indirectly, diminishing returns likely contributed to the decline in 2020, and the failure of the oil supply to bounce back up to its 2018 (or 2019) level in 2021.

[5] A better way of looking at world crude oil production is on a per capita basis because the world’s crude oil needs depend on world population.

Everyone in the world needs the benefit of crude oil, since it is used both in farming and in transporting goods of all kinds. Thus, the need for crude oil rises with population growth. I prefer analyzing crude oil production on a per capita basis.

Figure 5. Per capita crude oil production based on international data by country from the US Energy Information Administration.

Figure 5 shows that on a per capita basis, conventional crude oil production (gray bottom line) started declining after 2005. It was only with the addition of unconventional oil that crude oil production per capita could remain fairly level between 2005 and 2018 or 2019.

[6] Unconventional oil, if analyzed by itself, seems to be quite price sensitive. If politicians everywhere want to hold oil prices down, the world cannot count on extracting very much of the huge amount of unconventional oil resources that seem to be available.

Figure 6. Crude oil production based on international data for the US Energy Information Administration for each of the countries shown.

On Figure 6, crude oil production dips in 2016 – 2017 and also in 2020 – 2021. Both the 2016 and the 2020 dips are related to low prices. The continued low prices in 2017 and 2021 may reflect start-up problems after a low price, or they may reflect skepticism that prices can stay high enough to make continued extraction profitable. Canada seems to show similar dips in its oil production.

Venezuela shows a fairly different pattern. Information from the US Energy Information Administration mentions that the country started having major problems once the world oil price started falling in 2014. I am aware that the US has had sanctions against Venezuela in recent years, but it seems to me that these sanctions are closely related to Venezuela’s oil price problems. If Venezuela’s very heavy oil could really be extracted profitably, and the producers of this oil could be taxed to provide services for the people of Venezuela, the country would not have the many problems that it has today. The country likely needs a price between $200 and $300 per barrel to allow for sufficient funds for extraction plus adequate tax revenue.

Brazil’s oil production seems to be relatively more stable, but its growth has been slow. It has taken many years to get its production up to 2.9 million barrels per day. There is also some pre-salt oil production just now getting started in Angola and other countries of West Africa. This type of oil requires a high level of technical expertise and imported resources from around the world. If world trade falters, this type of oil production is likely to falter, as well.

A large share of the world’s oil reserves are unconventional oil reserves, of one type or another. The fact that rising oil prices are a real problem for citizens means that these unconventional reserves are unlikely to be tapped. Instead, we may be dealing with seriously short supplies of products we need for operating our economies, including diesel oil and jet fuel.

[7] Figure 1 at the beginning of this post indicated falling energy consumption per capita. This problem extends to more than oil. On a per capita basis, both coal and nuclear energy consumption are falling.

Practically no one pays any attention to coal consumption, but this is the fuel that allowed the Industrial Revolution to start. It is reasonable to expect that since the world economy started using coal first, it might be the first to deplete. Figure 7 shows that world coal consumption per capita hit a peak in 2011 and has declined since then.

Figure 7. World coal consumption per capita, based on data from BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Many of us have heard about Aesop’s Fable, The Fox and the Grapes. According to Wikipedia, “The story concerns a fox that tries to eat grapes from a vine but cannot reach them. Rather than admit defeat, he states they are undesirable. The expression ‘sour grapes’ originated from this fable.”

In the case of coal, we are told that coal is undesirable because it is very polluting and raises CO2 levels. While these things are true, coal has historically been very inexpensive, and this is important for people buying coal. Coal is also easy to transport. It could be used for fuel instead of cutting down trees, thus helping local ecosystems. The negative things that we are being told about coal are true, but it is hard to find an adequate inexpensive substitute.

Figure 8 shows that world nuclear energy per capita is also falling. To some extent, its fall has stabilized since 2012 because China and a few other “developing nations” have been adding nuclear capacity, while developed nations in Europe have tended to remove their existing nuclear power plants.

Figure 8. World nuclear electricity consumption per capita, based on data from BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy. Amounts are based on the amount of fossil fuels that this electricity would theoretically replace.

Nuclear energy is confusing because experts seem to disagree on how dangerous nuclear power plants are, over the long term. One concern relates to proper disposal of spent fuel after its use.

[8] The world seems to be at a difficult time now because we don’t have any good options for fixing our falling energy consumption per capita problem, without greatly reducing world population. The two choices that seem to be available both seem to be far higher-priced than is feasible.

There are two choices that seem to be available:

[A] Encourage large amounts of fossil fuel production by encouraging very high fossil fuel prices. With such high prices, say $300 per barrel for oil, unconventional crude oil in many parts of the world would be available. Unconventional coal, such as that under the North Sea, would also be available. With sufficiently high prices, natural gas production could be raised. This natural gas could be shipped as liquefied natural gas (LNG) around the world at great cost. Additionally, many processing plants could be built, both for supercooling the natural gas to allow it to be shipped around the world and for re-gasification, when it arrives at its destination.

With this approach, food costs would be very high. Much of the world’s population would need to work in the food industry and in fossil fuel production and shipping. With these priorities, citizens would not have time or money for most things we buy today. They likely could not afford a vehicle or a nice home. Governments would need to shrivel in size, with the usual outcome being government by a local dictator. Governments wouldn’t have sufficient funds for roads or schools. CO2 emissions would be very high, but this likely would not be our most serious problem.

[B] Try to electrify everything, including agriculture. Greatly ramp up wind and solar. Wind and solar are very intermittent, and their intermittency does not match up well with human needs. In particular, one of the world’s primary needs is for heat in winter, but solar energy comes in summer. It cannot be saved until winter with today’s technology. Spend enormous amounts and resources on electricity transmission lines and batteries to try to somewhat work around these problems. Try to find substitutes for the many things that fossil fuels provide today, including paved roads and chemicals used in agriculture and in medicine.

Hydroelectricity is also a renewable form of electricity generation. It cannot be expected to ramp up much because it has mostly been built out already.

Figure 9. World consumption of hydroelectricity per capita, based on data from BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Even if greatly ramped up, wind and solar electricity production would likely be grossly inadequate by themselves to try to operate any kind of economy. In addition, at a minimum, natural gas, shipped at very high cost as LNG around the world, would likely be needed. Also, huge quantity of batteries would be needed, leading to a short supply of materials. Huge quantities of steel would be needed to make new electrical machines to try to replace current oil-power machines. A minimum 50-year transition would likely be needed.

I am doubtful that this second approach would be feasible in any reasonable timeframe.

[9] Conclusion. Figure 1 seems to imply that the world economy is headed for troubled times ahead.

The world economy is a self-organizing system, so we cannot know precisely what form changes in the next few years will take. The economy can be expected to shrink back in an uneven pattern, with some parts of the world and some classes of citizens, such as workers versus the elderly, doing better than others.

Leaders will never tell us that the world has an energy shortage. Instead, leaders will tell us how awful fossil fuels are, so that we will be happy that the economy is losing their usage. They will never tell us how worthless intermittent wind and solar are for solving today’s energy problems. Instead, they will lead us to believe that a transition to vehicles powered by electricity and batteries is just around the corner. They will tell us that the world’s worst problem is climate change, and that by working together, we can move away from fossil fuels.

Again, the whole situation reminds me of Aesop’s Fables. The system puts a “good spin” on whatever frightening changes are happening. This way, leaders can convince their citizens that everything is fine when, in fact, it is not.

NOTE

*If the US Federal Reserve raises its target interest rate, central banks of other countries around the world are forced to take a similar action if they do not want their currencies to fall relative to the US dollar. Countries that do not raise their target interest rates tend to be penalized by the market: With a falling currency, the local prices of oil and other commodities tend to rise because commodities are priced in US dollars. As a result, citizens of these countries tend to face a worse inflation problem than they would otherwise face.

The country with the greatest increase in its target interest rate can, in theory, win, in what is more or less a competition to move inflation elsewhere. This competition cannot go on indefinitely, however, because every country depends, to some extent, on imports from other countries. If countries with weaker economies (i. e. those that cannot afford to raise interest rates) stop producing essential goods for world trade, it will tend to bring the world economy down.

Raising interest rates also raises the likelihood of debt defaults, and these debt defaults can be a huge problem, especially for banks and other financial institutions. With higher interest rates, pension funding becomes less adequate. Businesses of all kinds find new investment more expensive. Many businesses are likely to shrink or fail completely. These indirect impacts are yet another way for the world economy to fail.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,147 Responses to Today’s Energy Crisis Is Very Different from the Energy Crisis of 2005

  1. Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!

    > ‘Troll of Trondheim’ Strikes

    Now Met Office warns brutal -10C Arctic freeze will last at LEAST A WEEK: Major incident declared with thousands unable to cook or heat homes, emergency plan triggered in London and elderly urged to bunker down

    The Met Office today warned a brutal blast of Arctic air could whip through the country for at least a week, after a major incident was declared with thousands of Brits unable to cook or heat their homes.

    The cold snap from Norway, dubbed the ‘Troll of Trondheim’, will see snow showers and ice form across large parts of Britain – with temperatures expected to fall to around -10C in some areas.

    In London, mayor Sadiq Khan agreed to sheltering homeless people in London as part of the capital’s emergency severe weather protocol, while racing was cancelled at Hexham, Northumbria – with further disruption for sports and on the public transport system expected in the coming days.

    It comes as a major incident was declared in the Stannington area of Sheffield after thousands of homes were left without heating and gas for five days.

    British Gas expects to receive 70,000 calls for help with heating this week alone as the blast of wintry weather lingers until the weekend.

    It comes as public health chiefs today urged people to prioritise heating their living rooms during the day to survive the cold.

    Icy conditions with overnight double-digit sub-zero temperatures in exposed parts of the UK could last for at least a week, the Met Office has said.

    The forecaster extended Wednesday’s yellow weather warnings into Thursday and Friday, with ice in coastal and northern England, with both snow and ice expected in northern Scotland.

    Arctic air, dubbed the Troll of Trondheim, will quickly move south during Wednesday, leaving most of the country in its grip by Thursday morning.

    There is also a risk of wintry snow showers extending across the north and west of England, while freezing fog is also expected to develop by the weekend.

    Met Office spokesman Grahame Madge said: ‘We are in this pattern for seven days at least.

    ‘We could see it continue for a while longer, there’s uncertainty in the evolution and how long it will last.

    ‘However, the pattern for the next seven days is that it will remain cold and we will see double-digit minus figures overnight in areas that are prone to frosts and areas where there is lying snow.’

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11511133/Troll-Trondheim-bears-Britain-Snow-hit-TODAY.html

    • drb753
      drb753 says:

      These headlines are mildly irritating since -10 was the high today here, and we were all in the field trying to fix the livestock water that had frozen. I am still in my arctic overalls, but of course the house is warm and cozy.

    • kulmthestatusquo
      kulmthestatusquo says:

      Back to the days of Synnove Solbakken (1919), based upon a story written in 1860s a Bjornstern Bjornson, who earned a Nobel in 1903 but is completely forgotten today.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3XSCRPCrttc

      (At that time Norway did not have the infrastructure to make movies so the movie had to be made in Sweden, which was a bit more advanced.)

      Long story short, Synnove is the name of the heroine of the book even though she doesn’t really appear too often. It is about the struggle of Thornbjorn, a poor peasant, who goes through a series of struggle to win the attention of Synnove, the landowner’s daughter. At least the story does not end like the Great Gatsby because at that time the Norwegian landowners were not ‘elite’ enough’.

  2. Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
    Gail Tverberg says:

    In the news yesterday:

    https://www.reuters.com/legal/pfizer-biontech-countersue-moderna-over-covid-19-vaccine-patents-2022-12-05/

    Pfizer, BioNTech countersue Moderna over COVID-19 vaccine patents

    Back in August of this year, Moderna sued Pfizer over vaccine patents. Just recently, Pfizer countersued.

    Moderna has also filed a related lawsuit against Pfizer and BioNTech in Germany. All three companies are also embroiled in U.S. patent disputes with other companies over the vaccines.

    A Pfizer spokesperson said the company and BioNTech are confident in their intellectual property and will “vigorously defend” against Moderna’s claims.

    Sounds like a good chance for some issues to get publicly aired, perhaps accidentally.

  3. Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
    Gail Tverberg says:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/freefalling-china-taiwan-exports-scream-global-recession

    Freefalling China, Taiwan Exports Scream Global Recession

    [Regarding China] exports and imports both shrank at their steepest pace in at least 2-1/2 years in November, as feeble global and domestic demand, COVID-led production disruptions and a property slump at home piled pressure on the world’s second-biggest economy. . .

    in November China’s exports contracted by 8.7% Y/Y, significantly below consensus expectations of -3.9% and a huge deterioration to the 0.4% drop in October. . .

    one look at Taiwan shows that traade there was far worse: as Reuters notes, Taiwan’s exports dropped 13.1% by value last month (November) from a year earlier to $36.13 billion, the sharpest fall in almost seven years, the Ministry of Finance said.

    Demand for imported goods is way down around the world. China also has energy problems that it seems to hide behind shutdowns, ostensibly to prevent the spread of Covid.

  4. Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
    Gail Tverberg says:

    It looks like Dennis was correct in his earlier comment about Black Friday store sales. From WSJ:

    Black Friday Status Dims as Sales in Stores Fall Short
    Discounts earlier in season partly account for decline in foot traffic at bricks-and-mortar shops

    Sales at bricks-and-mortar stores over Thanksgiving weekend fell short of prepandemic levels and were behind last year’s totals, another sign that Black Friday is losing its status as the crucial kickoff to the holiday-shopping season.

    Unlike in previous years, when shoppers would rush out after Thanksgiving dinner to start deal hunting, most retailers didn’t offer significant promotions pegged to Black Friday this year, said Marshal Cohen, . . .

    Foot traffic to all types of bricks-and-mortar stores was down more than 10% this year compared with 2019, according to Placer.ai, an analytics firm that tracks mobile data.

    Retail sales were similarly lower, according to the NPD Group, which tracks point-of-sale data from a panel of participating retailers. Sales revenue during the week that ended Nov. 26 underperformed last year by 5% and 2019 by 9%.

  5. Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
    Gail Tverberg says:

    There is an editorial in the WSJ by Robert Bryce:

    When Accurate Data Are ‘Bad PR’
    BP considers ending its statistical review because it makes greens look bad.

    The article refers to a Reuters article:
    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/bp-weighs-ending-its-70-year-old-statistical-review-world-energy-2022-11-28/

    The Reuters’ article says,

    Led by BP’s Chief Economist Spencer Dale in recent years, the report was expanded to include data on renewable energy and even minerals used for batteries.

    However the report has been seen by some BP executives as detrimental to the company’s new direction, sources told Reuters.

    A BP spokesperson confirmed the company has launched an internal review of the report.

    “We’re looking at options for publishing the annual Statistical Review of World Energy, but as yet we’ve taken no decision,” the company said.

    Most readers will know that I use a whole lot of BP data in my analyses, as does Robert Bryce (who interviewed me, not long ago). There is simply no good replacement for this data, especially for energy other than petroleum. IEA puts out reports very slowly, and it charges for them. They are not in a particularly easy format to use, either. The US EIA puts out some international information, but it is more limited.

    I expect that a secondary issue that BP did not mention is that it is more and more difficult to get good data, for use in this report. Shipments of Russian oil, and who is receiving it, are going to be hard to get. China may be embarrassed to show its numbers. Even in the most recent report, I found inconsistencies in China’s coal numbers when I worked through various import/export numbers compared to production and consumption amounts for coal.

    I am not terribly surprised. We cannot expect to get “good numbers” as the world economy slides downhill. No country will admit to how bad things are. Also, they will be lacking in staff to properly fill out the reports needed to prepare the reports. Governments will be lacking in funding for their internal departments that might report such data, as more government funding goes to fighting energy issues.

  6. kulmthestatusquo
    kulmthestatusquo says:

    Today is the last day for this post so I will be short.

    The world after BAU will be feudal, clannish and stratified, with no upward mobility possible.

    Without growth, there is no upward mobility.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I expect to get a new post up sometime early next week.

    • Sam says:

      Yeah! And you are going to be my slave kulm!!!! I mean Mr. Thurston Howe the third! 🙄…. We are all living on the same island….

  7. 4 norms

    that seems abnormal to me.

    obsessions again eddy?

    not healthy

    • Norm, Eddy obviously is obsessed and some others here too.
      Perhaps sending him an autographed portrait with an appropriate greeting will be a nice Xmas gift!
      You know, my take on this is collapse is taking far too long for the likes of most of here. It’s taking it’s toll our patience and some are drawing straws with their imaginations..
      Yes, I’m rather amazed, myself, we keep on rolling along…
      This self organizing network system has more lives than Felix the 😺 Cat!
      Norm, please continue to post….most all of Fast Eddie’s whipping boys have left…he NEEDS YOU…It’s nice to be needed!

      • i do confess, as i’ve said, to a definite queasy feeling when i realise i’m the first thing on his mind every bright new morning.

        i think if started kb bashing at that time of day, my significant other would start to question my motives.

        i only read some of his garbage because people genuinely fascinate me—the good the bad and the ugly. Sensible people just walk away.

        As in our local square, if there’s some ranting idiot, gf has to drag me away—especially if someone tries to save me.
        I love being saved.

        i read stuff (his and a few others) and think—no—nobody could say stuff like that and actually believe it—we all say daft things once in a while, but we try not to repeat it for years on end.
        I’ve come to think of it as the Alex Jones syndrome—say anything to get attention—literally anything. Better still if it makes money. Even better if he gets sued.–love that part.
        A few fellow clowns will always believe you.
        And of course–they do.

  8. Fast Eddy says:

    Hmmm.. but they won’t do this at the Booster Pop Ups…

    https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/42723

  9. Fast Eddy says:

    Funny!

    NO, NO, NO YOU SIMPLY DO NOT DIE IN YOUR SLEEP OF MILD COVID CONSISTING OF A RUNNY NOSE…

    You may however die in your sleep from subclinical Myocarditis induced arrythmia induced by 4 COVID VACCINES.

    This article is full of holes.

    God bless this poor family as they navigate this terrible journey.

    They are being fed a lie though.

    https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/real-life/news-life/mum-felt-fine-before-dying-in-sleep-after-positive-covid-test/news-story/c0498f4b9b2f19737cfadd019f8ea247

  10. Rodster says:

    “The COVID Scam Continues“

    “Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) showed that vaccinated and boosted people made up most of the COVID-19 deaths in August. EVERY person I personally know who has had problems from blood clots to being rushed to the hospital was vaccinated. I went to get my hair cut, yes what’s left of it, and the two women there both lost their sons-in-law in their 20s after being vaccinated.”

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-covid-scam-continues/

    • Mike Roberts
      Mike Roberts says:

      Look further than the overall numbers. Most people in the US have had some vaccination, so per capita figures are needed for direct comparison. The CDC data show that the death rate is much greater in the unvaccinated. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status

      However, the rates are highly sensitive to the population data used. For example, here in NZ, the official data appeared to show a lower rate for vaccinated and boosted but a recent update, using a much more accurate population estimate, showed that, compared to the unvaccinated, the death rate and hospitalisation rates were lower in those who’ve had 2 doses, but about the same in those who’d been boosted. There is no published data on COVID caused deaths by age and vaccination status, so there may be nuances there.

      • Student says:

        If the overall data includes unvaccinated people dead also before the mass campaign vaccination (as it happens in Italy), it is obvious that the overal number is equal or major for the unvaccinated, because initially everybody was unvaccinated and treatments were not allowed because the objective was to possibly have a very high number of deaths.

      • Tim Groves says:

        One big question — and I think this is a very relevant question given the statistical shenanigans that have been going on — is whether people have regretted their decision to get jabbed or not.

        My personal experience asking questions has revealed quite a lot of people who took one or more jabs but now regret doing so, but nobody at all who has remained unjabbed and regretted it. Jabbee’s remorse is a real phenomenon. Among the famous, just off the top of my head, Jabbed Eric Clapton, Mike Tyson, Steve Kirsch, Robert Malone, Dan Bongino have all come out as bitterly regretting their decision. Jabbed and damaged Celine, Justin and Whoppi are keeping mum, but realistically they can’t be very happy with the results of their decision to get “fully protected.”

        It turns out that the unjabbed are in a very fortunate position if they can escape persecution, because natural immunity – innate and acquired – is a real thing that gets undermined by the injections, and that the jabs are “safe and effective” isn’t a lie – it’s two lies! And if someone yells at us for dealing in con-spir-acy theories, we can shout back:”I can take off my tinfoil hat at any time; can you remove your spike protiens>”

        • Student says:

          Almost all the people I know who had the jab regrets now to have done it.
          Some are aware that their bad phisycal conditions now is probably due to that.
          In my personal statistics only old age males say it was correct doing so.
          As far as I’ve seen so far, males in general (expecially old ones) faced the pandemic with a ‘war mentality’, so they are not available now to put in discussion their ‘war decisions’.
          Including my father who lost 4 diopters in one eye immediately after the jab (and I’m very sorry for that) and he says that it is because of his old age.
          Females (old or young), in my personal experience, are on the contrary now more available to face doubts and discuss about happened.
          One female friend suffers now of chronic asthma (right after the jab) and another one decided to have some blood treatment to overtake her chronic fatigue after the jab (therapy with ozone, vitamin C and gluatathione).
          The last one is feeling better after that blood treatment, but still no good.
          Of course that is only my personal statistics.

          • Xabier says:

            Excellent observation about a kind of ‘war mentality’, Student; that mentality would tend to shut down discussion and end rationality in approaching the issue. This psychological mechanism was knowingly manipulated by governments.

            I’ve just been reading about the same phenomenon here during WW1, the refusal to question the justice or sense of the war, the huge casualties, and so on – and the way in which those who were anti-capitalist, anti-imperialist pacifists pre-war flipped sides.

            This makes me think of those – and I know a few personally – who were very health- conscious before Covid, sceptical of Big Pharma and doctors in general, but then rushed to get injected without hesitation.

            At least they haven’t been able to line us up against a wall and shoot us as ‘traitors’…..not yet anyway.

            I am reeling mentally today at the news that injections for babies and infants have just been approved (presumably on an emergency authorisation) by the regulators.

            Hopefully take-up will be minimal, but there are no words for this criminality.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              This makes me think of those – and I know a few personally – who were very health- conscious before Covid, sceptical of Big Pharma and doctors in general, but then rushed to get injected without hesitation.

              That’s cuz they believe the injections maintain health. hahahaha… f789ing fools

              NOFs as well

      • Replenish says:

        UK data on cases, deaths and hospitalizations broken down by vaccination status showed a clear progression towards this being a “pandemic of the vaccinated,” they resorted to shading columns and printing disclaimers and then governments who normally pride themselves on transparent data stopped reporting the breakdown by vaccination status claiming that researchers were mis-interpreting the data ie. the science does not fit the prevailing narrative. The best bloggers with a science background have shown that overall deaths from the virus are down however the ongoing concern is long term adverse events from the mRNA vaccine delivery platform LNP’s (bio-accumulation) and Spike proteins (inflammation) as well as the presence of what appear to be self-assembling nano-wires and graphene oxide. ICENI bulletins has an excellent description of the who, how and why of biologicals and nanotechnology development. There is a clear patent trail, chain of custody and funding stream that leads directly to military research and development and the primary players in the pandemic response. Welcome back. Have a nice day!

      • Lastcall says:

        Wow Mike, CDC data and official NZ govt data.
        Authoritative data sets!

        Titanic, unsinkable, because it says so.
        Experts are chosen/groomed for their approved opinions.
        You still don’t get it..

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Can we get the BBCCNN data?

          Or what about the DOD data? The updated data of course where they increased all the numbers from pre covid years to align with the last couple of years of vax carnage. Ya that data.

  11. Fast Eddy says:

    The gun it to your head…

    You’ve got two options:

    – inject paint thinner into your shoulder

    – inject Fizzer Rat Juice into your shoulder

    norm injects Fizzer cuz (safe and effective) — what about everyone else?

  12. ivanislav says:

    Russia apparently bought a bunch of old tankers to transport oil now that provision of shipping and insurance are illegal in the West.

    Do these Russian tankers start getting blown up mysteriously? Does Russia retaliate and if so, how and against whom?

    • every attack against Russia seems to be followed by 100X “retaliation” in Ukraine.

      just like the “sanctions” blowback, a destroyed Russian tanker would be an oil loss to the purchaser.

      since this sounds really stooooopid for the West to do, there is then a good chance they will try it.

      • ivanislav says:

        “just like the “sanctions” blowback, a destroyed Russian tanker would be an oil loss to the purchaser.”

        India, China, and RoW are the ones buying Russian oil, so those parties and not the West would incur the direct cost if a Russian tanker gets hit. Hence no blowback unless Russia were to retaliate.

        • the prices on the world oil market would explode higher.

          Russia would gain more in overall oil revenue than they would lose from a lost tanker full of oil.

          the West has unwittingly positioned themselves into a lose/lose situation.

          there is no turning back from the Great Russian Reset.

          • Lastcall says:

            I am liking this game of catch 22 more than the book.
            Harvard and other Ivy League Educated Idi-bots (otherwise known as Pent a gom) getting ServeD

    • Adonis says:

      This is all part of the plan insurance was not gonna happen with negative interest rates which is part of the endgame so a massive managed collapse first which was a certainty to wipe out the ship of fools and be bought out by the elders and start afresh with the new system which will be supported by negative interest rates to explode debt even further economics is about winners and losers .

      • ivanislav says:

        “insurance was not gonna happen with negative interest rates”

        How does one follow from the other?

        • Adonis says:

          Wait and see interest rates will continue rising until the collapse then negative interest rates will come in to put the endgame on infinite life support all insurance will not work with negative interest rates and many other goodies we are enjoying currently

        • reante
          reante says:

          I agree with what Adonis is getting at. Oil sailing the seven seas uninsured is the future of oil shipments. Remember, Russia is in the role of the character out there on the cutting edge, breaking all the rules, and benefitting from the breaking. She goin’ ghetto on it. The West looking on and being like, she can’t do that! And eventually they’ll start doing it, too.

          The end of sharing includes the end of shared risk.

    • banned says:

      The strait of Hormez and the Persian gulf come to mind. Asymetric warfare has largly been a tactic of small forces engaged in to against large. Now with fossil fuels in depletion the large forces no longer have the options they once had. New technology or innovative use of technology and asymmetric warfare is the basis for force deployment by all including the great powers. The threat of the apocalypse means force is limited in scope and a dont ask and dont tell policy in effect. Small triggers that could trigger apocalypse are not publicized and the response is neither overt or covert. The recent boarding and holding of the two Greek oil tankers by Iran in the Persian gulf for instance. Nothing to see here This paradigm -neither overt or covert- where the act of force is neither claimed or denied seems to be the pattern of force escalation we may expect in the future. Instead of going for a choke hold the choke hold is avoided as it means the apocalypse, force deployment is the equivalent of pain compliance techniques. This has the added benefit of not alarming the public. Unfortunately organisms having weak points, sooner or later something vital gets damaged and the organism no longer perceives self preservation in holding back. None the less we should be glad things are playing out in this manner, it provides time and time provides the possibility if not the probability for a miracle. IMO providing security in the Persian gulf would be a very difficult task should unrestrained hostilities occur. Should the status quo of safe passage in the Persian gulf end Im not sure any semblance of BAU would continue for long. I think that is rather obvious and one might hope the problem that it poses to deploying force against maritime travel anywhere in the world would serve as a deterrent. Asymmetric actions cut two ways and IMO the solution they provide effectiveness is finite in many ways with time the primary.

      While Ukraine certainly has the potential to be the source of the apocalypse the fundamental causal, organisms operating via maxinum power principle means their are many potential sparks. Considering the new asymmetric force deployment we are witnessing the sparks may well occur where no or little publicity is observed.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Good point about safe passage in the Persian Gulf being important. It is easy to miss such a thing.

  13. Fast Eddy says:

    Do not cast pearls before swine…. do not cast pearls before swine….

    https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/58918

    Oh don’t worry MORE-ONS… Fast Eddy has sacks of pearls (HE has a pearl mine out back in the mountain) so he’ll continue to cast them before ya’ll… hahahahaha

  14. CTG says:

    More deaths among vaccinated Americans not a reason to avoid vaccines, experts say

    https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2022/12/01/more-deaths-among-vaccinated-americans-not-reason-avoid-vaccines-experts-say/

    Utterly confident…. so confident…

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I am urging everyone I know to get up to date with the boosters. We need to hit that 6B Cull figure. I need it to happen.

    • I still think that there really is a slight acceleration to the death rate.

      latest world population growth was about 80 million annually.

      quite simply, 2023 is going to need about 80 million excess deaths to stop population growth.

      and more deaths to reverse the growth, of course.

      we’ll see, que sera sera.

    • ssincoski
      ssincoski says:

      From that article: “The truth is we always knew we would see a growing proportion of vaccinated individuals among our COVID admissions,” said Dr. Shira Doron, infectious disease physician and hospital epidemiologist at Tufts Medical Center. “If 100% of the population were vaccinated — and that is what we wished for — then 100% of COVID hospitalizations and deaths would be among the vaccinated.”

      I knew that was their next ‘logical’ conclusion. Good thing we have ‘smart’ folks to explain how ‘the science’ works.

      • Xabier says:

        Hmm, yes, they ‘always knew it’ even when they were telling us that the mRNA vaccinated would certainly not end up in hospital – in fact not get sick at all – still less die there (or in bed, suddenly…….

        The crude, implausible, shameless, lying is quite breathtaking, even to this profoundly cynical observer.

        What next?

        ‘We always knew this would lead to mass graves: but folks, there are still more vaccinated people walking around than in those graves, so get your booster now to be protected!’

    • Sam says:

      Why are they still trying to push vax!?? Is it stupidity, greed or cep? CEP does not make sense as the could just as easily mess with the water supply..I think it is a combination of stupidity and greed..

      • reante
        reante says:

        Because it pushes the establishment off of a cliff, so that the new establishment can be manufactured more easily.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Poisoning the water supply would only result in ROF… you cannot poison the entire global water supply as many people do not get their water from centralized sources.

        If they saw people getting sick and dying they’d stop using the water and unhinge.

        Bossche will be right at some point … what you want is a Marek’s type disease… 100% fatal .. highly contagious.. when this hits it will kills billions… and then the rest will lock themselves down terrified to venture out …

        This is where the food vans come into play … the hordes are promised the food will come .. they will weaken … and die…

        You reinforce this with troops on all streets with shoot to kill orders.

        This keeps ROF to a minimum. It is by far the most effective way to murder 8B people without much violence… virtually no rape or cannibalism

        It makes total sense.

        Remember – we are running low on cheap energy… without cheap energy there can be no civilization – there can be no food. The only options are ROF or UEP.

        UEP is superior to ROF – that is why there is no pushback.

        The logic is infallible … but feel free to believe in Great Resets and all that jazz… but how do you have a Great Reset or BAU Lite … when the reason we need one is because we’re low on energy?

  15. CTG says:

    Polestar Charges $17.50 Per Horsepower For Boost Package As Microtransactions Invade Car Industry

    We’ve come across what could be another automotive company intentionally detuning engines so it can offer performance packages to customers via an over-the-air update. 

    https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/polestar-charges-1750-horsepower-boost-package-microtransactions-invade-car-industry

    I have no idea why people still want to buy EVs… perhaps same as “safe and effective”

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Even worse, other EV makers charge a fee, year by year, for fixing the tuning to a higher horse power.

      Mercedes-Benz is charging $1,200 for a yearly subscription to higher horsepower, in one example.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Show me an EV owner and I will show you a MOREON. Guaranteed.

      And also guaranteed – they will be fully boosted with the Safe and Effective Rat Juice

      • CTG says:

        Show me an EV owner and I will show you a MOREON. Guaranteed.

        And also guaranteed – they will be fully boosted with the Safe and Effective Rat Juice

        FE, it is not POLITE to state the obvious so blatantly (they are probably the same group of people who believe men will get pregnant)

      • Lastcall says:

        They drive funny – got that nose up in the air so they can look down on the gas goys.
        I am grateful for Elon sending out these virtual signalling boxes so we can more easily identify the ‘thought leaders’ amongst us.

    • Xabier says:

      EV owners like to say ‘This is the shape of the future! I’m doing my bit against climate change and pollution!’ Brainwashed.

      One was telling me the other day what a great car the Tesla is, he struggles with his wife over who gets to drive it rather than the diesel SUV. She rhapsodises over the Tesla….

    • A properly set up EV without overlord software controls like HP limiters, yearly apple style updates, governmental kill switches etc. paired with a solar array could in theory be a good vehicle for prepping. If a vehicle comes out with this potential I will buy. One gas guzzler daily driver and one EV for the wife who barely drives.

  16. CTG says:

    “i cannot soften my replies to salve your bruised ego CTG

    We are not—repeat NOT in a celestial amusement arcade.”

    Thank you Norm.. You have answered my question partially. Perhaps readers of OFW may realize or know but I was just enlightened by Norm when he wrote that sentence.

    The collective are a billion percent sure of things/events. That is the reason why they refuse to hear others out. They are sure that COVID is dangerous and vaccines are safe and effective. Whatever it is, moon landing, flat earth, simulation theory, WTC, depop, aliens, man can get pregnant, man-made kklimate change, fossil fuel are bad, (wind, solar, EV, etc) saves the day, etc it does not matter. They are extremely confident that they are right and sure. No question about that. See Norm’s reply that we are NOT in a celestial amusement arcade. He has no evidence that we are in or we are not in one but he is 1000% sure that we are not in one. No need to show evidence. Where have we seen this type of actions before? Oh yes… Vaccine… safe and effective.

    In fact the collective are so confident that they are correct, they subject themselves to the test and that is “the jab”. They don’t question because they know they are 1000% right. The rest are wrong. So wrong that they are not even worth their time to listen to their points of view. That is the reason why it is impossible to convince others no matter how hard you try. Even at the death bed, they will say “it would be worse had I not taken it”.

    As I have stated years ago in many of Gail’s posts, perhaps we have the defective one, perhaps genetic, perhaps a survival trait that we are always “not sure” and will check to see if we are right or wrong and we will change our views once new information come out.

    You can pin it to bad education system, psyops, etc but I still cannot explain why this “utter confidence” is across the board regardless of geography, religion, wealth, social strata, background, culture, beliefs, etc. I have illiterates here who are also so confident that COVID is dangerous and vaccines are good. They only know their own dialect (no mainstream languages) and watch no TV or YouTube/Tiktoks.

    so, next time, when you interact with others who are utterly confident on what they are saying, you know who they are…

    • CTG says:

      One thing that I am 1000% sure…. this scamdemic exposes all. The collective and the outcast. Is it a spiritual test? Are there anyone out there who is so utterly confident to tell me that we are in/not in one? (Norm cannot answer this question)

      • my opinion is that “spiritual test” is an invention of human minds.

        “simulation” also.

        just my opinion.

        • CTG says:

          Everything that is “not natural” is an invention of human mind

        • Xabier says:

          Implicit in any notion of a ‘test’ which has been set by some higher power (the Elders, God, the Matrix Architect, etc) is an eventual reward of some kind:

          ‘You passed the intelligence/spiritual test, here’s your prize!’

          The vaccinated believe they have passed an intelligence and good citizenship test, and survival and safety is their reward. And so on. Everyone has an optimistic gloss.

          I myself do not see any likely prize-giving ceremony ahead, no medals, no promotion, no recognition …..

          This is much more like the ‘test’ presented by some dangerous survival situation: if you win, you merely get to face another nasty challenge, presented by emerging circumstances and, of course, certain human actors.

          An army assault course, but with no elite beret to wear with pride at the end of it.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            How about at some point the Elders come clean — for once we get the truth.

            They tell us that the real problem is not GW etc… it’s overpopulation … and the only solution is to Cull … and when deciding who to cull the vax was a two birds with one stone thing… it helped identify those with intelligence deficiencies… and killed + sterilized them

            Something along these lines

            https://youtu.be/rcx-nf3kH_M

            This all goes onto BBCCNN…

            I wonder how the mob would react… take a guess

      • Fast Eddy says:

        norm has a policy of not answering any questions…

    • Fast Eddy says:

      This is why the vaccines are so awesome … they punish the MORE-ONS for their blind trust in CNNBBC.

      Good – smash their f789ing brains in.

      For once – they pay for their stooopidity – they pay Big Time.

      VAIDS – injury – death. Take your pick

    • Adonis says:

      I will now present evidence of three males and one female i personally know two males and the female were jabbed between 2 to 5 times all between the ages of mid 20s to late 40s ate pretty healthy and two of the three exercised quite a bit the other male did not they got covid and were all extremely ill and fatigued.One male off work for 6 weeks straight the other male and female off work for 8 weeks straight. Now to the third male in his early 50s no jabs whatsoever a smoker , heavy drinker and indulges in numerous illegal drugs ice meth pot unemployed eats a pretty substandard diet and does exercise a lot working around his country property caught covid gone in two weeks felt quite sick in the first day but in the next 13 days had mild flu like symptoms which eventually disappeared

      • CTG says:

        COVID a.k.a common cold. The most expensive PR exercise to rebrand that virus.

        Regardless of whether it escapes from the lab or not, I believe within weeks, it would have died down and replaced with flu since they are of the same symptoms.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          And I am told The Vid is raging again in Queenstown – M Fast says multiple people off work sick — but that’s all about VAIDS and f789ed immune systems

          I feel great – I feel powerful and omnipotent — but then I have a functioning immune system with no spike in me hahaha

        • I really don’t buy this. I think all scenarios were bad. I’m no fan of the jab but being in construction I know a lot of folks who are unhealthy and smokers and during the initial waves and delta they did not do well. I have a handful of coworkers who didn’t come back to work and/or had portable oxygen which is not so practical on the jobsite (pre-jab days for many). Frankly I think the people who called Covid a cold/flu live in a bubble and we’re probably WFH types. Do I think a million people died from it? No but I do think a lot of people with sub-optimal health were at lease impacted by it.

          At this point I do think omicron onwards is like a cold. My point i guess is the jab was not just bad itself but the original disease was also bad.

      • Jarle says:

        … “they got covid” … “caught covid” …

        How do you know?!

    • lol ctg

      go ahead and prove we ARE in a cosmic amusement arcade—since you insist on getting sillier with each comment

  17. Hubbs says:

    All this USD sequestered away. $80 Trillion in FX swaps. Untraceable. Short term. Every day, $5 trillion gets turned over in this shell game. Way over my head in understanding all of this, but all I know is that the bankers and other financial chickanerers sit at their computers, planning, advising, scheming–and producing NOTHING, which means they are apex parasites along wiith politicians, lawyers etc. -extracting from productive people who are too busy working real jobs to protect their wallets.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      A new report has been published by the Bank of International Settlements. There seem to be at least $80 trillion dollars of FX swaps at risk that are not reported through current systems. The unreported part is mostly related to swaps written outside the US, but involving US dollars. The US $ is disproportionately in the midst of these swaps because even if the intended swap is between two currencies other than the US$, (say Mexican Peso and Japanese Yen), these swaps are nearly always written as two separate swaps, each with the US dollar.

      The danger is a currency shortage, when FX swaps come due. These shortages are related to Assets (such as bank deposits) which are short-term and the same time that Liabilities (such as loans that will be repaid by borrowers) are long-term. According to Brown, these currency shortages are always the after-effect of too much currency abundance that indirectly allows prices of homes, farms, shares of stock, and factories to escalate. A shortfall could come if some borrowers fall behind on their loan repayments, or if bank depositors become concerned and with bank solvency, and want their deposits back, immediately.

      The US Federal Reserve has a way of dealing with this, through its repo facility. The result, however, is that the US government adds much more debt (and buying power) by bailing out these failing FX swaps, leading to even worse inflation. Joe Brown, who is the speaker here, says the only solution is to let some of these FX swaps fail, rather than bailing them out. Otherwise, the continued bailouts can lead to hyperinflation, as the cycle is repeated, and more debt added. (Needless to say, the problems associated with the US trying to bail out all of these swaps are not mentioned in the original BIS report or by Reuters.)

      This is a Reuters article about the findings:
      FX swap debt a $80 trillion ‘blind spot’ BIS says
      https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/global-markets-bis-urgent-2022-12-05/

      This is a link to the original BIS report:
      https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.htm

      • Oddys says:

        I got a creeping suspicion that the top financial functionaries are guessing their own jobs while pretending to understand things and the only rule is “never question orders”.

        Reminds maybe of the control room in Tjernobyl in Mars-86.

    • tomsplaything
      Fred says:

      All this ‘money’ isn’t real. They’re just accounting entries in a virtual casino.

      Most of it can’t be exchanged for real stuff, because there isn’t enough real stuff left, for the rapidly impoverishing West at least. Noting in passing that Russia has a relentless focus on real stuff, which is why they’ve been running out of missiles, ammo, tanks, everything really since early March and will continue to run out for as long as it takes.

      D Orlov in his normal droll style: http://thesaker.is/the-goldilocks-war/

      This is why ‘money’ piling up in the accounts of billionaires is perversely a good thing. If that money was spread around the natives, who then tried to go out and buy stuff, they’d quickly find that stuff isn’t there to be had and they’d get restless. So better off we pretend that green energy, EVs, batteries will shortly take us to nirvana.

      Tim Watkins has been on a roll recently too:

      https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2022/12/05/in-brief-monday-5-december/

      https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2022/11/15/welcome-to-the-oil-death-spiral/

      • that Orlov is highly recommended, really good.

        how “real” can that $80 trillion be, if the daily churn is $5 trillion?

        every 3 weeks, it is essentially recreated.

        if “they” can do that, then “they” should be able to unwind it to $Zero within 3 weeks also.

        I would worry more about unlikely WW3.

      • Withnail says:

        This is why ‘money’ piling up in the accounts of billionaires is perversely a good thing.

        And why cryptocurrency speculation is a good thing. The more money tied up in imaginary things that cost nothing, the better.

  18. Fast Eddy says:

    Crypto boy who claims to have made 40,000% return on his crypto thing … is applying a pay to comment on his SS hahaha… maybe he had his money in FTX and forgot to pull it before it imploded… or maybe he doesn’t like it when FE blows up the crypto cult and he knows FE won’t pay to play…

    https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/stew-peters-chaos-credibility-that-b93

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This article is really related to the vaccine. Stew Peters’ Chaos: Credibility that Died Suddenly, Part 2

  19. Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
    Ed says:

    It is 2451, good news the family has just finished our ten year project of reviving 120 acres of previously dead farm land. That meets the requirement of 40 acres of wood lot, 40 acres of grazing land, and 40 acres of food growing land required to get a license for having a child. As we know the penalty for having a child without a license are so severe for the family no one would ever do so.

    Tomorrow the town will celebrate the successful enforcement of the World United Law of Sustainable Population on the breeders of Egypt who had over grown their allowed limit by a factor of two. Due to the valiant actions of our guardians they have been reduced to a factor of two below their allowed number giving them time to learn how to control their population.

    Due to the thoughtful action of World United we have no starvation and we have peace. It makes one shudder to think back to the barbarous times at the turn of the millennium when nine billion suffered in the most awful ways. Now thanks to World United the world’s four hundred million will never know that madness.

  20. Student says:

    (Eventiavversinews.it + RSI.ch Public Swiss Radio/TV news)

    1.400 people in Switzerland officially registered among those who suffered adverse events from Covid-19 mRNA vaccine.

    The figure is only about people who suffered events immediately after the jab.

    It doesn’t include those who had health problems later on, because it is difficult to have an official correlation with a disease occured later or with the death of the relative person.

    ”Regarding suspected adverse reactions to the vaccine, more than half of the hospitalizations occurred between April and July 2021, that is, at the height of the vaccination campaign. In a quarter of the cases, the main diagnosis involved symptoms of fever, altered general condition, or malaise. In another quarter of cases, the diagnosis was related to CIRCULATORY SYSTEM DISEASE, such as myocarditis and pericarditis, HEART FAILURE, and HEART ATTACK. Diseases of the circulatory system were the leading cause of hospitalization in people under the age of 50 with adverse reactions to vaccination, accounting for 37 percent of cases.”

    Translated with http://www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

    https://www.eventiavversinews.it/svizzera-1-400-ricoveri-per-reazioni-avverse/

    https://www.rsi.ch/news/svizzera/Vaccini-anti-Covid-1400-ricoveri-per-reazioni-avverse-15837586.html

    • Student says:

      And the figure is only about people immediately treated in hospital, see word ‘ricoverate’, as indicated in the headline of the Swiss article from Rsi.ch.

  21. “IEA predicts renewable energy to overtake coal by 2025
    “A report by the International Energy Agency says energy insecurity amid war in Ukraine is spurring a renewable power surge. Experts predict the sector will soon surpass coal as the world’s largest electricity source.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/iea-predicts-renewable-energy-to-overtake-coal-by-2025/ar-AA14XkIH?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=70ed411a64ea47f881d47965be164a7a

    I’m puzzled — how are they so sure, if hydroelectric generation is about maxed out, & no all-the-time power grid yet runs on IRE (wind/solar, etc. — intermittent renewable energy)?
    Or, is that what’s good politics for governments who finance IEA?

  22. Rodster says:

    If you are NOT too squeamish, watch this Chris Martenson video on blood clots. In the video he shows this stringy blood clot being extracted from a body. That is not normal. Embalmers and morticians are seeing this more common now.

    https://peakprosperity.com/could-these-mysterious-clots-be-the-cause-of-death/

  23. Posted by a Mass Media Outlet
    Yahoo Finance
    Why the war on fossil fuels is causing chaos
    Rick Newman·Senior Columnist
    Mon, December 5, 2022 at 1:21 PM

    many governments are creating strong incentives to adopt renewables, they’re not safeguarding supplies of the fossil fuels that meet 80% of the world’s energy needs today. And renewables aren’t coming online fast enough to offset the shortfall of oil and natural gas. That’s why energy markets were getting tight even before Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine sent prices spiking. Many analysts now think energy markets will remain tight — and prices high — for the next several years.

    In advanced economies, costly energy will likely slow growth and perhaps contribute to recessions. In the developing world, energy shortages may worsen famines and trigger catastrophe.

    The problem may not be obvious. Oil and gasoline prices have moderated recently, and new supplies from producers such as Venezuela could bring further relief. But this is a false sense of normalcy. Once China recovers from ongoing COVID shutdowns, demand for oil will strengthen and prices will go back up, maybe by a lot. The energy war between Russia and the west continues, as well, and a drop in Russian oil exports could also push prices up. American releases of oil from the US national reserve are due to end soon, further tightening supply. Self-imposed limits on western production will make the United States and Europe more dependent on other nations that prefer high prices over ample supplies.
    …..
    There were more than 600 oil and gas bankruptcies between 2016 and 2021, with busted firms defaulting on more than $321 billion in debt. Exxon Mobil (XOM) alone lost $22 billion in 2020. Investors and shareholders who bore those losses now want a much faster return on investment, especially given efforts to shut the whole industry down. “The investor demands that we prioritize returning capital to our investors who gave us that capital in the first place,” Hellen Currie, chief economist for ConocoPhillips, said at the Dallas Fed conference. “This capital discipline mindset is now entrenched, and it’s why we don’t see more rigs or frack crews going to work
    ….
    Gas is also part of the green-energy transition itself. Since wind and solar power aren’t always available, expanding their use on the grid requires a reliable “base load” that’s there if the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing, and natural gas is the most appropriate fuel for that. “There’s this idea that if you use more renewables you use less natural gas,” Brenda Shaffer of the Naval Postgraduate School said in Dallas. “But it’s exactly the opposite. If you don’t commission enough natural gas, you can’t use enough renewables

    Yep…looks like a plan alright….just got to provide adequate funding …sarcasm

    • Fast Eddy says:

      This – along with the orchestrated war in Ukeland — are the PR Teams way of explaining away the fact that we are deep into the depletion phase of cheap energy

      It’s working! Almost nobody thinks we are running out

  24. banned says:

    Off to the highest bidder. The Ukrainian version of a 401K.

    “We had two trucks with 84 M4s, 12 SCAR-Heavies… a couple of Javelins, and some M240-Bravo’s, and an absolute truck full of ammo – [which] just went missing in the convoy,” complained British mercenary Joseph McDonald

    Ukraine got some nice hits in with the Russian air bases. Apparantly there is no or little reporting of it in the Russian MSM. It wont happen again. Multi tier air defense requires Pantsirs with alert crews at the lowest tier and that was not present. The lowest tier would seem to be increasingly important in a modern conflict. Germany could get some good sales of their Flakpanzer version to Saudi if they actually had some gas to build them. Inexpensive below radar drones require crew served guns with tailored short range radar targeting. Obsolete technology suddeny becomes very very relevant courtesy of new cheapo technology. Even if higher tier air defense was effective its very very cost prohibitive to use against el cheapo moped destructo. Drones are fish in a barrel for a Pantsir but but they cant be everywhere. The lights can go off in Russia too but were not there yet.

     

  25. kulmthestatusquo
    kulmthestatusquo says:

    Speaking about Little Match Girl, Denmark in the 19th century was very stratified and those without means were simply doomed.

    I already told the story of another Andersen from Denmark, who had to use the name Nexo to avoid confusion with the children’s book writer. Nexo’s most famous book, Pelle the Conqueror, told the harsh existence of the peasants during late 19th century Denmark, partially based upon his own life story. It is just the first part of a 4 part series but the rest were too harrowing and too depressing for the translators to touch so they remain untranslated to any other languages to this day.

    I also talked about Knud Hamsun, who was educated but had to face hunger. He later served the N*zis because he didn’t want to be hungry again

    Hans C. Anderson’s stories are more true to life than most other stories in the same genre. There are no hope in most of his stories, unless you were already a swan (the Ugly Duckling). The powerful are ridiculed like the Emperor’s New Clothes, but after the ruckus is gone, the Emperor will simply execute the tailors, the child who cried the Emperor was naked and everyone who spread rumors and everything will go on as if nothing happened.

    There is a Danish series called 1864, about the ill fated war between Denmark and Prussia. There are two peasant brothers. The older one dates the prettiest girl in town. The younger one dates a gypsy girl. The Baron, who owns everything in town, gets to send the two brothers to the war against Prussia where the older one is killed. The girl the older one was dating bears the older’s child, but abandons the child to the orphanage and marries the rich Baron, who in the meanwhile had raped the gypsy girl the younger one was dating. Having lost his genitals in the battle, the younger one returns to Denmark and rescues his brother’s child from the orphanage and takes the gypsy girl’s child (from the Baron) as his own.

    Fast forward to the 2000s, a girl, the descendant of the younger brother (actually the gypsy girl and the Baron) becomes the caretaker of the current Baron, a descendant of the Baron and the woman the older brother was dating. There is no mention of the older brother’s descendants so his line (i.e. the peasant’s line) has died out. The girl and her middle eastern boyfriend steal the Baron’s jewels, and but the Baron , after the girl reads the family history which is the basis of this series, realizes the girl is actually his relative and forgives the girl’s theft just before he dies.

    Moral: Only the elites leave descendants and the peasant’s line dies out.

    I hope Gail does not think this is ‘over the top’.

    • halfvard
      halfvard says:

      Knut Hamsun was actually an ideological National Socialist.

      In spite of that he is my favorite fiction author.

    • So you detected that the older brother had no descendants because none were mentioned later in the story? Does that actually follow?

      “Moral: Only the elites leave descendants and the peasant’s line dies out.”

      Well, if only the elites leave descendants, and the other lines all die out, then it would follow that everyone is descended from elites and there is no distinction between people in that regard? Peasants too would seem to be descended from elites on that account and their situation is merely a matter of circumstance?

      Is that what you are arguing?

      • kulmthestatusquo
        kulmthestatusquo says:

        The lines of lower class male die out The lines of lower class females might continue if they are attractive enough for the elites.

        • if lower class females have children by male elites, then the “lines” of the lower class fathers of these females continue.

          another poor effort by you.

          oh well.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Fast Eddy is available to breed the MOREON hotties… it is the only way to cure MOREONISM.

            Only the ultra hot and fit though … if anyone is thinking about this ask yourself – am I hot and fit enough for this? https://swimsuit.si.com/galleries If not don’t come knocking… and no trannies… this ain’t no f789ing circus act… and definitely no disabled MOREONS … blemish free.

        • Look, everyone knows that non-elite male lines survive.

          This is getting silly?

          • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
            Gail Tverberg says:

            I think that non-elite male lines disproportionately tend to die out. But women from the same areas don’t. Even women slaves don’t die out, because they often are mothers tanks to the sperm of the owners.

            • We need to look at analyses of the demographic data. We can frame it as different fertility rates and infant mortality rates by social status.

              The available evidence does not seem to generally support a higher fertility of higher status persons in the period before the demographic transition to lower fertility rates (persons, male and female, overwhelmingly tend to mate their peers), and infant mortality rates were similar for different status groups as they were subject to the same key factors. In the demographic transition higher status fertility tended to drop first, while their infant mortality rates dropped only sightly and only sometimes more than others. Local conditions need to be looked at.

              https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5315643/

              > Our results do not provide support for the hypothesis of universally high fertility among the upper classes in pre-transitional society but support the idea that they acted as forerunners in the transition by reducing their fertility before other groups. Farmers and unskilled workers were latest to start to limit their fertility. Apart from this regularity, the patterns of class differences in fertility varied significantly among populations.

              …. Turning to SES [socioeconomic status] differences, which was the main focus of our analysis, we found only very limited support for the hypothesis that the high-SES groups had higher fertility before the fertility transition. In fact, only in one of our studied populations, Scania in southern Sweden, did we find this pattern. Previous findings about high fertility among various elite groups were often based on analyses of net fertility, implying that changing marriage patterns might have been driving much of the early decline of higher-SES fertility (see, e.g., Cummins 2013). Therefore, based on the evidence from these different contexts, we found neither support for the generalization of higher marital fertility among the upper classes nor for the opposite claim of low fertility in this group before the transition. Instead, farmers had high fertility in some contexts and workers had high fertility in other contexts. This does not rule out the possibility that the higher-status groups experienced an earlier fertility decline, and converging levels of marital fertility long before the time when rates of overall marital fertility declined secularly. It appears that SES differences in fertility in pre-transitional society were highly dependent on local contexts and conditions for childbearing; something that was stressed by Szreter in his model of “communicating communities”, in which SES and geography (and gender) interacted in determining fertility outcomes through social influence and interaction during the British fertility decline (Szreter 1996; Garrett et al. 2001). Further research is required to study these context-specific conditions and how they interact with SES in these populations.

              We found much more support for the idea that the high status group acted as forerunners in the transition once it began. Overall, the high-SES group was first not only to reduce its fertility, especially when examining higher-order births, but also to increase the intervals between marriage and the first birth. In some cases, the differences in timing of the decline were not that significant between classes whereas in other cases, they were prominent. However, in all cases the high-SES families were among the first to change their behaviour. As the transition progressed, more groups joined the transition leading to at least some convergence between SES groups. However, in most cases, farmers and unskilled workers continued to have relatively high fertility late in the transition.

              …. There might have been some effect of an earlier decline in infant and child mortality in the high-SES group, but it seems far too small to explain the entire SES difference in the [fertility] decline. Furthermore, the mortality development of the higher-status groups did not always differ from the mortality development of the working classes (Bengtsson and Dribe 2014), while clear SES differences in child mortality was present for instance in Stockholm (Burström and Bernhardt 2001; Molitoris 2015).

        • info says:

          Someone has clean the toilets. Even if only elites have children who survive.

          • Withnail says:

            There won’t be any toilets. There were no toilets with running water in Britain from 410 AD until the 1800s.

            • reante
              rsante says:

              There will be toilets. Toilets are gravity flushed. Carry water in a bucket to the toilet and pour in a gallon or two. If you used to be connected to a sewer that’s been decommissioned you just dig a septic system/big ass french drain. Compost toilets will prevail, though, in a waste not want not world. Those need to be cleaned too. Outhouses not so much…. But I have a vested interest in the matter because I clean toilets for a living.

    • ivanislav says:

      kulm, as far as your posts go, this is hardly “over the top”. You regularly talk about eugenics and your desire to see peasant slaves suffer horrible treatment. This post is is tame by your standards.

      • Xabier says:

        Kulm hasn’t even begun to process the shame he should feel at the way his landowning family seem to have treated their workers and servants.

        His grandfather was clearly a wretch who tried to inculcate the same behaviour and lack of ethics in Kulm.

        It also explains why Communism would have appealed to those poor ill-treated people when times changed and the landlords were executed or booted out.

        I have absolutely no nostalgia for the landowning days of my family, and no longing to be in the position to mistreat undefended people.

        Kulm’s point that this was often the norm is, however, historically true, whether in Asia or Europe; but we can still wish those wickedly selfish people a hearty good riddance.

    • Christopher says:

      Pelle the Conqueror and his father migrate from Sweden to Bornholm (Denmark).

      Another very good scandinavian author is Halldor Laxness. I guess you could add Selma Lagerlöf as well. Booth write about the miserable life of the poor people.

    • Lidia17 says:

      Sounds like it was the gypsy line that made out best.

  26. Saint Ewart says:

    Best Science fiction I’ve read recently is a few books from the Jim Cheshire Quorom/Random skies series. Written about 2000 and set in early 2030s it’s all there, fake pandemic with vaccines of death, U.K. population down to 10 million, permanent war in the east and set in a limited nuclear exchange aftermath. global ID (GLID) which is moving from devices, to microchips (failed as hands get cut off) to neural implants across the remaining population with rebellions across the land and a few remaining ‘outside the gates’ groups. People with no GLID aren’t people, U.K. carved up between German and China corporations with media and political fakery refined. All very recognisable and a bit close to the bone at times. Worth a look as a Christmas read!

    https://www.amazon.com/QUORUM-RANDOM-SKIES-Jim-Cheshire/dp/1795494980

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Wow! That book sound insightful.

      I see the book was published in February 2019, so it clearly was written before a lot of the things we are aware of happened. But it could possibly have been written more recently than 2000 — still about the current situation, however.

      • Saint Ewart says:

        I believe the series which is umpteen novels long , was started with the first book in 1999. Not sure if it got printed then. It’s only in 2019 that an independent publisher called Spey Sondheim published them all. I’ve read the first 3 this year, and they are pretty good fiction (depending on taste). Might get a few more for the holidays, easy reading for doomers. It is remarkably prescient from an early noughties perspective.

        Still trying to work out what happened in the US, seems to intimate a vicious English civil war style bloodletting there, rendering the place impotent and isolated, but keen to find out.

        http://speysondheim.com/author.html

    • Jim Cheshire, eh?

      A few impressions, based on his Amazon profile:

      HIs portrait looks grim and pixelated, as though his face is disintegrating. Why would an author select such a “defaced” portrait? What might this selection indicate in terms of how the author views himself?
      He is also possibly signaling one eye symbolism in the portrait (his left eye darkened). If so, it may indicate he’s partial to Algol worship:

      https://twitter.com/secretsunblog/status/1598374323126870016?s=61&t=HgWKxGANWSf9BmG10wD1Aw

      From his Amazon about section:

      “From the mid-nineties, Jim found some creative success with his art, music and books and, feeling that wasn’t enough, started making ‘scene movies’, creating a graphics company, music publisher and several small literature producers along the way. He built the distribution company Transurban, and a music and film studio called Omicron West.”

      Omicron West, eh? Author of science fiction novels involving pandemics and deadly vaccines, eh? What a coincidence.

      He looks like a predictive programmer who’s been fed information from those in the know.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Even if the book only consists of things fed from “those in the know,” it can be interesting. Why were people thinking these things in 2018 and perhaps early 2019?

        • I for one wasn’t thinking of these things in 2018 and early 2019. Most people I know weren’t thinking of these things then, either. However, certain people and organizations were thinking of these things and writing about these things before the scamdemic. This is not unlike the supposedly prescient fictional terrorist attack narratives and twin tower iconography that can be found across various forms of media prior to September 11, 2001.

          • Tim Groves says:

            One of my all time faves. “The Long Kiss Goodnight is a ridiculously fun action movie. It’s got two great performances from Samuel L. Jackson and Geena Davis with great humour and amazing action sequences. Renny Harlin’s direction is also great with some ridiculously fun and over the top stunts.”

      • Fast Eddy says:

        One wonders if all these tech titans were not handed the tech e.g. google FB twatter etc…

        Remember the scene from the matrix where the offer neo whatever he wants to betray his mates? He can choose to be a rock star — top athlete – whatever he wants…

        Maybe that’s part of the actual matrix… we are not blatantly given a choice… we don’t even know we’ve chosen… it’s in the programming.

      • reante
        reante says:

        Nice AK. The subtext of such predictive programming being: if you want to live, do exactly as we say when we say it, no matter how dystopian things get.

        Of course, that’s a trick. Doing what they say only increases your chances of dying, as we can see.

  27. kulmthestatusquo
    kulmthestatusquo says:

    There will never be a deflation again.

    A deflation means all these derivatives and loans blow up like a bunch of tactical nuclear bombs. Which basically means the end of Civilization.

    In oil terms, there might be a deflation. However, never in dollar terms (or put your currency in). Never.

    • moss says:

      “A deflation means all these derivatives and loans blow up like a bunch of tactical nuclear bombs. Which basically means the end of Civilization.”

      true, but I don’t think it follows that therefore it cannot ever happen

      The only construct holding together this web of loans and derivatives is law and its enforcement. Ah yes, the rule of law and the rule of power

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Somehow, a new currency will be needed after the blow-up. My guess is that people will be able to earn the new currency by working. People with “savings” in the old currency will be out of luck. Debt will play a much smaller role.

        If the new currency is internationally traded, the system will be different than today. Perhaps it will be related to a basket of currencies, depending on resources of the countries.

      • reante
        reante says:

        No, not necessarily true at all, moss. They can manage and feather deflation, too, to varying degrees, and degrees of success, with a combination of capital controls, bail-ins, bailouts, restructurings, digital UBI. The point of deflation is so that the elites can make a killing buying up hard assets.

        • moss says:

          Yes, of course, and the biggie – seize the collateral
          In such a societal transfer of wealth keeping the dispossed content, or at least not protesting uncontrolably, will be the finesse

    • moss says:

      All the way back, the survival rate of civilizations has been zero. Did neanderthals have a civilization?
      The eternal battle: the forces of power and law against the justice of the gods. Barbarianism vs socialism
      I see germs for optimism that our rapturous satori will not occur simultaneously

      The PIVOT, releasing the genie. Strangely, no one I’ve read recently has reminded us about the fundamental premise of MMT that monetary policy changes generally take from twelve months to eighteen to visibly impact economic data and this round started last January. Anyone who says at this point they’ve tightened too little or too much or just the right amount has no historic basis for the prognosis. Just making shit up, as Yves Smith says.

      Whether by next June we’ll be happy with our answer … Of course there’s the Senecca side of PIVOT – which will also impact with a similar time lag. What fun that’s going to be.

      Almost invariably these days, friends and acquaintances who comment on their circumstances will mumble through the sand how lucky they feel living where they do.

  28. Student says:

    (Il Paragone + Nicola Porro news)

    Also in Italy some media channels are talking about the Japanese virologist who is informing about the serious adverse events from mRNA vaccines and frrom all Covid-19 vaccines in general.

    https://www.ilparagone.it/attualita/i-vaccini-hanno-provocato-danni-a-livello-mondiale-la-denuncia-del-professore-di-fronte-al-ministero-della-salute-video/

    https://www.nicolaporro.it/vaccini-la-clamorosa-denuncia-del-prof-giapponese-sugli-effetti-avversi/

    The following two links are the ones with English subtitles, previously already posted by someone in this blog:

    https://www.2ndsmartestguyintheworld.com/p/japanese-emeritus-professor-at-kyoto

    https://rumble.com/v1xrjfu-dr.-masanori-fukushima-vaccine-damage-now-a-global-problem.-billions-of-liv.html

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Thanks!

  29. CTG says:

    Supply Disruption From Russia Price Cap Is Here: Tanker Jam Forms Off Turkey

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/supply-disruption-russia-price-cap-here-tanker-jam-forms-turkey

    Will this be an issue? Cannot tell but it certain add more straws to the camel’s back.

    • Student says:

      Also the following two updates are interesting for those who want to to see closely the situation:

      By first link it is possible to see that some Russian oil arrives in United Arab Emirates and then it is not clear what will happen to that oil.

      By second link it is interesting to see that US is still importing Russian oil arriving from Kazakh pipeline, because the 15% of that part can be still defined Kazakh as it is blended, although 15% is Russian.

      https://gcaptain.com/russias-european-crude-sales-collapse/

      https://splash247.com/chaotic-scenes-around-the-dardanelles-on-the-opening-day-of-the-russia-tanker-ban/

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        I notice to that, according to the second link, it is not clear how much Russian oil India and China can really import.

        How much cargo it will manage to move to Asia’s two largest countries remains to be seen.

        “Despite not joining a ban, China and India, the world’s largest and third-largest crude importers, may find it difficult importing as much crude as they have in recent months due to shipping capacities, financing and insurance constraints,” analysts at Xclusiv Shipbrokers suggested in a recent market update.

        Ulf Bergman, senior economist at chartering platform Shipfix, said that assuming the price cap is enforceable and that Russia, as previously stated, will not sell to anyone adhering to it, the seaborne trade in Russian crude oil is likely to shift to older and non-EU-flagged vessels.

        The last statement would suggest that EU ships (such as from Greece) might lose business as the result of the embargo and Russia’s response to the embargo.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I notice that the article says:

      In a striking demonstration of the price cap’s potential to disrupt markets, most of the oil in the delayed ships isn’t even subject to the sanction regime: It’s from Kazakhstan and has merely transited Russian ports after arriving there via pipeline.

      One oil industry insider said Russian shippers have transited with relative ease — it’s shippers covered by western insurers that are anchored and now destined to deliver their cargo late.

      So the insurance requirement may affect others than those for whom it was originally intended.

      • Student says:

        Considering that the world cannot exclude Russian oil with a blink of the eye, I think that there will be a lot of ship-to-ship transfers or also oil that will become surprisingly ‘Arab’.
        Arab countries should be happy to store their oil and sell that oil as theirs.

        Then, sooner or later Russia, China, India, Iran and others will need to make insurances without US+EU in charge, so this could be a good moment for them if they really don’t want to remain submissive forever.
        Let’s see.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          That could be. Arab countries are closer to Europe and Russia than taking the oil all the way over to India or China.

  30. Mrs S says:

    There’s also this:

    “Oxford County Council is going to trial a scheme whereby the residents of the city are divided into seven zones, with movement by car between the zones restricted to 100 trips per year.”

    Many other UK cities are planning similar schemes. I wonder if people will put up with it.

    https://dailysceptic.org/2022/12/05/oxford-county-councillors-to-introduce-trial-climate-lockdown-in-2024/

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      If people only have EV cars, they won’t go very far between charges. There won’t be public chargers, to speak of. People will necessarily not drive very far.

      Years ago, dialects varied for each little valley in Norway. I imagine the situation was similar elsewhere. Travel was mostly on foot, or with animals pulling some kind of cart. Under the circumstances, people didn’t go far.

      • Xabier says:

        I’ve already mentioned my friend who can’t drive his Tesla to Wales because of the sparse charging points – well, he could but it’s a hassle, nerve-wracking and slow.

        The Scandinavian people of the tribal Dark Ages, however, regarded those who didn’t travel – for war or trade, and often both – were dull and ignorant. I think they called them ‘home-huggers’ and ‘know-nothings’. or something of a kind.

        What the WEF is proposing is something like the feudal system which tied workers to estates, and the penalties for ‘vagabonds’ which were imposed on wandering common people in Britain from the 16th to 19th centuries.

        But imposed on everyone except elites and their enforcers. The rest of us can be know-nothing home-huggers, thanks to tags and censorship.

        They could even be branded at one time, when caught.

        Chips, anyone?

        • Xabier says:

          Or to put it another way: we ain’t going nowhere, whatever the WEF do, except down the drain…….

        • Xab, I came across an archaeogenetics paper that touches on your own Basque region. Its population trends were pretty normal for Iberia through the Neolithic and Bronze Age, but Basques have been isolated, as a relic Iron Age population since then, from population movements from all directions. It is suggested beyond the paper that the local pre-IE language, Euskera, may have presented a barrier of sorts to make Basques an anthropologically distinct people.

          Btw. the paper mentions the Urnfield culture as the possible origins of the Basques, or their origins may have been just before. The ~50% population replacement on Britain in the Middle to Late Bronze Age is also associated with the Urnfield culture, and the recent archaeogenetics paper about that pinpointed either side of the France/ Spain border as the genetically closest and most likely source of the ‘France Iron Age’ ancestry in its Supplementary materials, so present day Iron Age relic Basques may actually still be quite similar to that population source. Archaeogenetics is pulling quite a few rabbits out of the hat, so to say.

          > The genomic history of the Iberian Peninsula over the past 8000 years

          We assembled genome-wide data from 271 ancient Iberians, of whom 176 are from the largely unsampled period after 2000 BCE, thereby providing a high-resolution time transect of the Iberian Peninsula. We document high genetic substructure between northwestern and southeastern hunter-gatherers before the spread of farming. We reveal sporadic contacts between Iberia and North Africa by ~2500 BCE and, by ~2000 BCE, the replacement of 40% of Iberia’s ancestry and nearly 100% of its Y-chromosomes by people with Steppe ancestry. We show that, in the Iron Age, Steppe ancestry had spread not only into Indo-European–speaking regions but also into non-Indo-European–speaking ones, and we reveal that present-day Basques are best described as a typical Iron Age population without the admixture events that later affected the rest of Iberia. Additionally, we document how, beginning at least in the Roman period, the ancestry of the peninsula was transformed by gene flow from North Africa and the eastern Mediterranean.

          …. This trend documents gene flow into Iberia during the Late Bronze Age or Early Iron Age, possibly associated with the introduction of the Urnfield tradition. Unlike in Central or Northern Europe, where Steppe ancestry likely marked the introduction of Indo-European languages, our results indicate that, in Iberia, increases in Steppe ancestry were not always accompanied by switches to Indo-European languages. This is consistent with the genetic profile of present-day Basques who speak the only non-Indo-European language in Western Europe but overlap genetically with Iron Age populations showing substantial levels of Steppe ancestry.

          …. The impact of mobility from the central/eastern Mediterranean during the Classical period is also evident in 10 individuals from the 7th to 8th century CE site of L’Esquerda in the northeast, who show a shift from the Iron Age population in the direction of present-day Italians and Greeks that accounts for approximately one-quarter of their ancestry. The same shift is also observed in present-day Iberians outside the Basque area and is plausibly a consequence of the Roman presence in the peninsula, which had a profound cultural impact and, according to our data, a substantial genetic impact too.

          https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331744779_The_genomic_history_of_the_Iberian_Peninsula_over_the_past_8000_years

          • halfvard
            halfvard says:

            The weird thing about the Basques is they have remained an Iron Age population with their own isolated non Indo-European language, but the males almost all have an R1b haplogroup that DID come from Indo-Europeans (DF27 if I recall correctly).

          • Xabier says:

            Thank you, Mirror!

            I’ve come over all tribal just reading that.

            Agur!

        • Oddys says:

          With all due apologies for the language, but those who stayed home were actually called “motherfu**ers”.

    • Withnail says:

      They’ll have to put up with it. It doesn’t matter what they want. There will be no fuel anyway for cars before long.

      It’s like the people who say ‘I won’t eat the bugs, i am going to continue to eat steak’. The choice isn’t between bugs and steak.

      People in the UK will be focused on two main things, food and electricity. I don’t think they will care as much about driving around the city.

    • Xabier says:

      True mass popular protest would force them to back down.

      But private cars are history whatever happens.

      • Mrs S says:

        It’s going to be a massive shock. People have no idea. They are still going about their normal lives, taking cruises, buying houses.

        At least that’s what my work colleagues are doing.

        • Xabier says:

          Quite so, Mrs S.

          The shelves are full, the Xmas muzak jingles, the motorway roars ceaselessly, and the whine of the builder’s angle-grinder is heard everywhere in the land……

          I’m just an incredulous visitor from planet OFW, astonished at the behaviour of the native life forms

      • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
        Ed says:

        It is ten miles to the grocery store and there is zero mass transit. No car, no food.

  31. Fast Eddy says:

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/12/04/oxfordshire-council-to-trial-a-climate-lockdown-starting-2024/

    Oxfordshire County Council yesterday approved plans to lock residents into one of six zones to ‘save the planet’ from global warming. The latest stage in the ’15 minute city’ agenda is to place electronic gates on key roads in and out of the city, confining residents to their own neighbourhoods.

    Just more unhinging .. prepping the mob for the meat grinder… unsettling them

    • D. Stevens says:

      Didn’t some places try to pilot this during the early C19 days? Limits on travel between zones or travel distance limits? Even here in US there was some talk about possibly preventing travel between the New England states. My work made a rule saying no one could travel out of state without then having to stay home for two weeks.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Wait till the real big fat death totals pile up … and they are blamed on Covid (and not VAIDS or vax injuries).

        The MORE-ONS will be begging for total lockdowns with martial law and shoot to kill orders for anyone ‘anti-vaxxers’ who dare to leave their homes.

        Not hard to imagine that outcome.

        We can already see how the PR Team is leveraging all the VAIDS deaths and labelling them Covid.

        BANG BANG BANG BANG the drum of Fear. And prep another 10 billion shots of the boosters hahaha Im-BEC-iles.. will be imbe-ciles.

        It’s rather amusing – actually — all these circus animals nattering about whatever BBCCNN told them today … as if it’s real… to them it’s real … the death and suffering are real…

        But they’ll never come to the punchline — that the joke is on them… they’ve f789ed themselves.

        Nope. The closer we come to the end game – the more intensely they will believe that Covid is the Black Death… their fears are justified.

        They’ll be begging for more boosters… as they drown in their own snot and vomit.

        Haha… bitten by the viper they ask for more vipers to bite them… D-unce.s

        The thing is…

        This puts the icing on my cake — my claim that almost all humans are total MORE-ONS… circus and barnyard animals — is 100% confirmed by the self-extinction we are witnessing.

        And they go on ringing the bell on Wall Street… celebrating the exponential pillaging of their home… ignoring the gulags of industrial farming … buying more stuff at the mall… loading up videos flashing their fat arses on tiktok…

        What a complete disgrace… a f789ing joke of a species.. Good F789ing Riddance.

        And they think they are special … great … amazing ….

        Like I said … they are a disgrace — all of them

        https://metro.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/ad_166301452.jpg

        https://wallpapercave.com/wp/O7Qvq0l.jpg

    • Xabier says:

      Norman, darling, don’t be so vulgar.

      You can’t help being old, nasty and vaxxed, but you could try to maintain some decorum.

      The’15 minute cities’ are a global policy, popping up everywhere.

      Do some research sweetie, it might open the rusted doors to your tiny mind….. just a bit.

      xx

      • Xabier

        I have run out of WD40

        But your terms of faux endearment are having the same effect on my stomach as the thought of eddy leaping out of bed every morning, scaring hoolio off the bed, reaching for his laptop, frantically searching for regurgitated 789’s with which to impress me on his first pre-dawn comment.

        none of us can help being old (or vaxxed if that is one’s choice ), what you can help is not giving me a constant Breughel-esque image of a stooped figure coming out the forest in the snow, a bundle of firewood on his back, eager to get back to his (worthy) trade of bookbinding and studied poverty.
        (maybe you should get out more?)

        With your blessing, I would now like to get back to studying my chosen profession of infanticide, which is essential if I am to follow in succession to King Herod.

        You lost me (not difficult) on 15 minute cities btw.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          When I picture norm … I picture a geezer walking out of a back alley fixing the creases in his Marks and Spencer suit purchased from the Salvation Army shop … having committed an act of shame with a burned out ho-oker (sss) Out Back the Dumpster…

          he heads for the pub to try to wash the disgust off with a few pints… is welcomed by the fellas who turn their heads and mutter ‘it’s im again… f789ing ell…you’d think e’d have the sense to stay away’…

          Oblivious to the cold shoulders norm cheerfully greets the fellas with a ow’s it goin lads? av you erd that we’re going back to the moon in a few years?

          The lads spew profanities at norm … f789 off mate… piss off wanker…

          Well then says norm if that’s ow ya’ll be I’ll just go in the corner and enjoy me pint.

          • soooooo—predictable

            just like pulling a string at the back of a squeaky doll.

            never fails—same old—same old— obsessions and insecurities, an eddy-demo, so all might recognise him.

            determined to reveal all to a captive audience of (non) tailcoat hangers-on, mentor to the few self choosers—- unwittingly telling everyone about ‘self’, While idi ots see their intellectual saviour come to redeem them from ignominy.

            And unbiased outside observers make rude comments

            • Fast Eddy says:

              See – people cannot handle the truth .. they say they want it .. but when it is given .. this is the reaction

            • there’s truth………….

              then—in the immortal words of the Don’s press secretary–
              (slightly bent to accommodate current circumstances)

              there’s ‘alternative truth’.

              Or to quote Alice in Eddyland:

              ” why, sometimes I’ve believed six impossible things before breakfast”

      • Fast Eddy says:

        norm has his own kingdom … he’s king of the NOFs.

        dunc is his Minister of Boosters

  32. Mrs S says:

    A fascinating post from John Paul’s substack. The C40 2030 goals are that people are only allowed 3 items of clothing per year, no meat and no car.

    Gail, do you think that this would help?

    https://hiddencomplexity.substack.com/p/ambitious-2030-green-goals-nobody?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

    He’s quoting from this report https://www.c40.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/2270_C40_CBE_MainReport_250719.original.pdf

    • D. Stevens says:

      I wonder how the consumer will be limited to only a few new articles of clothing, no car, and a mostly vegan diet in the future. Things are still amazingly cheap and I can still buy an entirely new outfit for less than a days wage. I imagine something big will need to change with either the supply of material items and/or the financial system because few will willingly adopt such an austere lifestyle. We’re slowly moving in that direction already but to make it there in less than 10 years something big comes this way.

      • Mrs S says:

        I imagine we will be given a carbon allowance administered by app or some such.

        The rich will be able to buy credits from us.

        • Withnail says:

          I doubt it. It won’t be possible to administer complex systems like that during collapse.

          • Mrs S says:

            So why don’t the people making these plans realise that?

            • nobody is ‘making plans’ other than to make more money before the system collapses althogether

              the joke being of course, that once collapse happens, money will be worth nothing

            • Tim Groves says:

              Norman, I take it that you didn’t misspend your youth reading science fiction and fantasy stories, If you did, you might realize that the goal of the elite is an elite run world or galaxy where the elite are fabulously well to do and the rest of the people have diddly squat.

              In H.G. Wells’s The Time Machine, there is the well-known division of the species into the predators, the Morlocks and the prey, the Eloi.

              In Piers Anthony’s Apprentice Adept series, Proton is only one planet in a galaxy of human-inhabited worlds. Most of the atmosphere of the planet has been destroyed through the mining of Protonite, a valuable energy source, and the inhabitants of Proton live in domed cities with artificial life support.

              Despite its advanced science, Proton’s socioeconomic scheme somewhat resembles the medieval period. The planet is run by fabulously wealthy Citizens but the bulk of the inhabitants are serfs. Serfs must be employed by a Citizen and remain naked at all times unless ordered otherwise by a Citizen. A Citizen has complete authority over his serfs and may order them to do anything he desires. The weakest among them have wealth to rival medieval kings. Serfs, however, are not slaves; the serfs of Proton have all chosen serfdom as their occupation (or are descended from those who have). After twenty years of work, a serf earns a gram of Protonite, and his retirement. While a paltry sum on Proton itself, this is enough to make the former serf comfortably wealthy elsewhere in the galaxy. Even then many serfs would choose to stay on Proton after their twenty years are up, but it is not permitted in most circumstances. The exception to this rule is getting far enough in the tourney.

              While in Michael Moorcock’s Dancers at the End of Time series, the setting of which is the End of Time, an era “where entropy is king and the universe has begun collapsing upon itself”. The inhabitants of this era are immortal decadents, who create flights of fancy via the use of power rings that draw on energy devised and stored by their ancestors millions of years prior. Time travel is possible, and throughout the series various points in time are visited and revisited. Space travellers are also common, but most residents of the End of Time find leaving the planet distasteful and clichéd.

              Our current elites want to be Morlocks, they want to be Citizens of Proton, and most of all they want to be Dancers at the End of Time with access to unimaginable energy and power at their fingertips and with nothing practical to do with it.

            • not altogether clear the points you are trying to make on the relation of science fiction to our current situation. Tim

              I can ‘fantasise’ about time travel, and other modes of existence, Anyone with a half active imagination can do that.
              And most science fiction draws on current existence as baseline, and fast forwards it into a future that (obviously) no one can dispute–it is ‘entertainment’ nothing more. It cannot be used as a yardstick for our ‘now’.
              Your quoted examples clearly define that.

              But consider, say, Stephen Hawking. A reputed brainykid if ever there was one.
              He proposed that in order to survive into the future, humankind must ‘discover another planet’ to move to.
              Ah—if Hawking said it—it must be true.

              No, it proved Hawking to be an eejit in that context, no more ‘clever’ than L Ron Hubard—millions believe him too,–or say they do.

              We read fiction to make our minds fly. I read everything I could get my hands on back in the day. (It left me with an insatiable appetite for more.) It also gave me a little skill with words. And an appreciation for someone who transfixed me with Hamlet using nothing more than a table and a row of chairs as his stage props.
              And leave me unashamedly wrecked at the end of it—now THAT is pure word-magic that one can bathe in. Powerful stuff.

              Read/listen to Dylan Thomas– In My craft or Sullen Art.—maybe its you who is soul less.

              Proving of course, that such magic is ultimately to be found between your ears, if you know where to look for it.
              And don’t let it get bogged down with claptrap.

            • D. Stevens says:

              I’m unsure if WEF is for real or a psyop but if it’s real the people behind it must believe they can keep a sudo BAU going for a long time with careful management. I believe many people on this blog are in a faster collapse camp where the machine will seize up fairly quickly once the flow of energy goes into decline. Too fast and unpredictable to manage or control. Doomsters have been predicting collapse over the horizon for a long time yet here we are. I’m doubtful about the vaidsapocalypse but maybe a persistent population reduction in the high consumption nations will reduce the drain on energy supplies but without the constant demand we would get a collapse as the producers can’t make a profit. I don’t know. Feels like we’ve painted ourselves into a corner where we need to keep growing just to survive but the energy which allows us to grow is contracting. Think we’ll see austerity by many names and excuses going forward. A major change in the financial systems might help keep the plates in the air. Best we can do is enjoy things while the last and try not to be caught off balance as things fall apart.

            • CTG says:

              Mrs S

              “So why don’t the people making these plans realise that?”

              It is seriously “unfortunate” that you are “the elite” who are not part of the collective or masses. You ask questions and use common sense.

              I have to step in and say that Norm has becoming more annoying in replying to comments that make sense.

            • i cannot soften my replies to salve your bruised ego CTG

              We are not—repeat NOT in a celestial amusement arcade.

            • Tim Groves says:

              People who have no souls can often a severe pain in the rectal area for people who do have them, especially those who are going through the long dark night of theirs.

      • I AM THE MOB says:

        You’ll have to stay in shape, or your clothes won’t fit!

        Clever eh?

        🙂

        • Still much better than in Red China under Chairman Mao…maybe there won’t be mass starvation/famines.
          If my memory is correct,China at that time, allowed a few articles of clothing, no car and perhaps if you were “rich” and had a good social score…radio and bicycle!
          So, it can be done…

          • drb753
            drb753 says:

            If the new system is so much better than Mao’s then I have to come back to the West. Mao lifted 600 M or so out of poverty. The WEF will be a juggernaut.

            • Ever see the movie Mao’s Last Dancer?
              Very moving true story..

              In the era of Mao’s Cultural Revolution (in the 60s/70s), 11-year-old Chinese boy Li Cunxin resides in a rural village commune in Shandong Province, destined to labour in the fields.

              As often occurred in those times, government officials fanning out across the nation seeking young candidates for centralized training arrive at this school. At first bypassed but selected after a plea by his teacher during the school visit, Li seems bewildered although piqued by the gruff preliminary inspection screening at the provincial capital city of Qingdao. Forwarded to a Beijing audition for a place in Madame Mao’s Dance Academy, he is admitted for ballet training based on a series of physique and flexibility examinations.

              Years of arduous training follow, Li surpassing his initial lukewarm interest and mediocre performance after inspiration from senior teacher Chan (whose advocacy of classical Russian ballet as opposed to the politically aimed, physically strident form required by Madame Mao leads to the teacher’s apparent banishment). Later during the course of a groundbreaking cultural visit to China, American-based English ballet director Ben Stevenson, impressed by Li’s standout talent, seeks him as an exchange student at the Houston Ballet. Li’s determined courage garners a formerly disparaging teacher to influence the Academy to allow him the opportunity for a three-month stay in the United States.

              While working in Charlotte NC had a Chinese co worker my age that lived through the Cultural Revolution and expressed how mass controlled psychology enabled the authorities to sway the population…

              Said people didn’t know any better..kinda like we see today…

              PS Chen’s daughter was a student at George Town University..not bad for a peasant boy …

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I read a book by Mao’s doctor – he claims Mao engaged in Michael Jackson-like activities with children … apparently it was an honour for the parents of the chosen ones.

              Did this boy end up in Mao’s harem?

            • drb753
              drb753 says:

              Just terrific. My descendants will not live in extreme poverty. Best news of the day…

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Mao did no such thing – the Elders lifted the chinese out of poverty … they offshored manufacturing to The Chosen One — simple as that.

              If not for this policy china would to this day be a backwards poverty laced country

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Oh and this happened under Deng… not Mao – Mao’s claim to fame is group or-geees with children

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Not sure why people are complaining … at least you have BAU Lite… the alternative – that so many are embracing – doomie prepping … is not even BAU Lite… you have nothing … you eke out a grim existence in a hovel on the verge of starvation and exhaustion … waiting for a crop to fail or a bad guy to rip your face off.

        The Great Reset or whatever they are promising — is surely better than D-Prepping?

        BAU Lite assume the ponds are kept under control so there is that

  33. Rodster says:

    The Elders think just because you say we are going Green doesn’t necessarily mean it is really going to happen. Once reality sets in, it’s over. So you just have to let them find out the hard way. It is fossil fuels or BUST.

    “Czechia Admits EU’s EV Charger Network Plan Will Probably Fail”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/czechia-admits-eus-ev-charger-network-plan-will-probably-fail

    “Achieving this goal will certainly not be easy. Indeed, a certain core of a charging infrastructure that can be built on already exists, but in this case, we are talking about hundreds of kilowatts to units of megawatts of charging power in one location, which represents a complex and particularly time-consuming solution,” said Martin Schreier from the ČEZ Group, which operates around 470 public charging stations throughout the Czech Republic.“

    • Adonis says:

      The mistake everyone is making is thinking that everything can go on as per normal bau but in reality it will be the wild west with a small amount of electricity to power a few devices.

      • Rodster says:

        As they say in Mexico, Si Senor !

        • Adonis says:

          The elders have been planning this for a long time have some faith that life will go on in some form

          • Rodster says:

            Oh it will, no doubt. I have no reason to doubt this can all go on for another 40-50 yrs maybe longer.

            • In a manner of which, I agree; the question to ask is, for whom?
              Even today some are being knocked off BAU lifeboat as the situation deteriorates.
              Since I live in the USA, my concern is how long can the US Fiat Currency 💲 be backed up by the insanely massive military establishment ever conceived.
              As we are witnessing today, there is a “war” undergoing to keep it that way.
              How big of a conflict will it escalate to, remains to be seen.
              I would not be surprised, if those of privileged status, will rather go the way of destruction we saw in Nanny Germany in 1945, than lose it.
              The stage is set and all we can do is see how it plays out.
              One thing that was pointed out by Jiddu Krishnamurti.
              If one prepares for war, in whatever name, usually it turns out that way!
              That’s why I’m not too concerned about the dozens of other limits to growth.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              We just need to convince more of them to take the shots and the boosters… we are near 6B … and that’s the magic number…

              6B dead leave 2B alive (we just hit 8B so it rounds the number nicely)… and we get 30 more years of BAU Lite…

              Anti Vaxxers need to get their heads around this — it is NOT in your interest to convince anyone stop shooting the Rat Juice…

              You MUST – you HAVE to — urge them to take more shots…

              If you want that 30 yrs you gotta do your part. Apparently every 100M that survive knock a year off the 30. So we really need to get needles in arms… we’re sitting on at best 24 years and 3 months… it’s not enough …

          • I AM THE MOB says:

            And when you plan something well, there’s no need to rush.

    • postkey
      postkey says:

      “Examining U.S. Department of Energy data for operating capacity from January 2020 to the latest figures available, 811,000 barrels per day of “operating” refinery capacity and more than 1 million barrels per day of “operable” capacity have been removed. . . .

      Analysis of EPA 2021 RIN price and volume data shows that biofuel compliance imposed $21 billion in extra cost that was passed along to consumers for no benefit. Based upon 134.8 billion gallons of motor gasoline consumed in the U.S. during 2021, that amounted to an additional 19.3 cents per gallon that the biofuel compliance program alone imposes upon motorists, without respect to the higher on-highway cost that ethanol imposes due to its thermodynamic disadvantage. At various times during 2021, the RIN penalty ran as high as 30 cents a gallon.

      Even more humiliating for Biden’s biofuel threshold inflation is the fact that ethanol from corn, which accounts for more than 87 percent of all biofuel production by volume, produces no GHG emissions improvement over gasoline and may actually cause as much as a 24 percent increase. That finding comes from a 2022 study published by the National Academy of Sciences. Researcher Holly Gibbs and her team found that biofuels had caused a 30 percent increase in corn prices between 2008 and 2016, which induced farmers to plow up vast expanses of grassland and increased the use of fertilizers by 3–8 percent. Products made from corn are found on 75 percent of the aisles in a typical grocery store. Thus, higher corn prices boost food prices throughout the entire store.

      If you’re still following, Biden’s biofuel policy, far from reducing gas prices, will actually boost gas prices, increase smog during the summer, increase the compliance burden on energy companies, cause small refiners to bear soaring costs that will inevitably lead to capacity reduction as some of them simply shutter their operations, reduce engine performance, degrade fuel mileage ratings for every fill-up, require more fertilizer that diverts from food production, and cause corn and food prices to climb even higher Companies would be forced to estimate emissions footprints of vendors, intermediaries, contractors, customers, and everyone else in the “extended value chain” of its business. Suppose that a U.S. reporting entity purchases a large piece of machinery from an offshore supplier. The purchasing firm will soon be obligated, under the proposed rule, to assess, measure, and report on the emissions that were created: (1) during the mining of raw materials used in assembly parts employed in the machinery fabrication, which would also include their production, staging, and storage; (2) in the physical transport of the raw materials or assembly parts to the assembly plant; (3) from actual assembly, production, and testing of the machinery; and (4) during transport to the purchasing firm’s final destination.

      A maxim in economics is that you tend to get more of what is subsidized and less of what is taxed. Biden’s budget proposals (reviewed in more detail below) include tens of billions of new taxes on oil and gas production. Biden’s program includes massive subsidies to promote the sale of electric cars. ”?
      https://assets.realclear.com/files/2022/10/2058_energyinflationwasbydesign.pdf

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        The argument has gone on for years about ethanol.

        Before biofuel subsidies, the US paid big farm price support payments to corn farmers. Biofuels were seen as a way of keeping corn prices up without having to pay the farmers directly. So there is that “benefit,” or perhaps “cost offset.” Farmers vote, and rural areas in general benefit from higher prices from farm products.

        When ethanol first was added, one purpose was to replace MTBE, a different additive that was perhaps polluting ground water. MTBE was made from natural gas, IIRC. Ethanol raised the octane without this problem.
        https://archive.epa.gov/mtbe/web/html/water.html

        Another “benefit” is that it stretches the supply of gasoline by about 10% by volume (less, by distance traveled). We hear a lot of concerns about diesel being in short supply, worldwide. This is not true for gasoline.

    • Withnail says:

      “Czechia Admits EU’s EV Charger Network Plan Will Probably Fail”

      Of course it will fail.There is no spare energy to power such a system.

    • Rodster says:

      Such happy news early in the morning makes my day.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Sadly the parents won’t make the connection between their stooopidity and the wrecked body of their infant …. and the doctor will never offer to connect the dots

        But still … all that matters is we know what’s gone down here… and it’s gratifying.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      A doctor who warned patients about the dangers of covid “vaccinations.”

  34. Fast Eddy says:

    Better than Hoolio https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/58855

    New Zealand hospitals are overwhelmed with formerly healthy people, poisoned by Covid vaccines, promoted by Jacinda Ardern, Kate Hannah, Curtis Walker and more.

    And it is *not* Covid.

    https://twitter.com/TotallyCanc3l3d/status/1599599626079780870

    VAIDS hahaha … this is so good — one of M Fast’s colleagues is right f789ed… with some sort of viral disease – she can barely lift a glass of water she’s so weak.

    F789 every9ne!

    And .. More Boosters

    • Rodster says:

      Yes,yes, more boosters are in order.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        That f789ing Cop the C789 is not dropping my traffic ticket – I hope he gets a booster and drops dead… no no – we can’t have that… I want him to show up in court in a wheelchair… having seizures and suffering … now that would be a happy moment!

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I found this link in the thread:

      https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/association-between-vaccines-and

      Igor Chudov shows by linear regression that the higher the Covid vaccination rate is in a country, the higher the excess mortality percentage tends to be.

  35. Fast Eddy says:

    Christmas Hoolio (I am sure M Fast will dress my boy in some silly red Rudolph hat before the dust settles on the final Christmas… so wait for it)

    https://i.postimg.cc/d1gmx13x/Hool-xmas.png

    • Rodster says:

      He does have that certain Reindeer look about him. I’m sure he’ll like the silly antlers hung over his head.

    • Replenish says:

      I’m happy to see his bright eyes back. I was sad because he looked sullen in your last picture.

    • Replenish says:

      His bright eyes are back. I was worried because he looked sullen in your last picture.

      We need a new action hero or crime fighting team to protect children and consumers and to takedown the jab syndicate.

      Hoolio the Heartthrob and his partner Fast Eddy down at the schoolyard.

  36. Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
    Ed says:

    It is 2038 demons fill the air. The sky is blacken by the pyres of China, India, Africa. Some say it is to hide the truth others say it heralds the truth. The great civilizations of East and West are no more. Individuals seek food while avoiding the death doctors.

  37. Kim says:

    I rarely visit a supermarket but I happened to be in one yesterday. I noticed the price of a low quality chocolate bar, 4 inches × 1 inch × .5 inches was equivalent to the price of two liters of petrol.

    Of course, the price of petrol is controlled here, but it is still up 40% in the last year.

    But that is an expensive chocolate in energy terms.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      No kidding!

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I was quoted to replace 4 cedar doors off our kitchen — $12,000 ball park – unable to commit because the price is increasing — I think the guy said the wood went from $150 per sqm to $180 in one month…

        12k is insane to begin with … how can 4 doors cost 12k… wood and glass and hinges and handles… I’ll just refinish the f789ing things and live with the single pane glass… odds are we don’t make winter so who needs energy efficiency (+ I have lots and lots of coal)

        • i wish i’d known you could replace doors with a 789, i could have saved a lot of money a couple years ago.

          i replaced 100ft of fence this year—would 789s have worked on that too?

  38. I find it heartbreaking when I see educated mothers taking their children to be Jabbed while the kids are dressed in superhero costumes.

    • educated yes, but severely lacking in the wisdom needed to see through the propaganda.

      most are now sheeple.

      the only remedy is a massive civilizational collapse.

      • when i wrote to Farrah Fawcett I got a very nice reply, suggesting we meet up soon.

        The missis raised a disapproving eyebrow on that score

        but maybe Ms Fawcett preferred thought of my company because my letter wasn’t punctuated with a stream of pre-pubescent F789’s??

        • Fast Eddy says:

          norm … I see that you are experiencing ongoing disappointment because of that rejection .. this has resulted in you not reaching your full potential as a human…

          It’s never too late… I have asked Fast Eddy how I can help you and HE says:

          1. Print this photo https://i.huffpost.com/gen/1210088/images/o-FARRAH-FAWCETT-HAIRSTYLE-facebook.jpg

          2. Go to Super Snatch and pay her a bonus if she lets you tape this to her face before the session.

          3. Fulfil your life-long fantasy

          If that does not work … buy yourself a FF blow up doll.

          Just thinking …. I could not find an actual FF branded blow up doll… I might have to start a line of blow up dolls for NOFs and deviant pervs…

          All the hottest celebrities — super models … etc… of course I’d give them royalties… this would be HUGE! Why has nobody thought of this before???

          Oh right 1500 HP.

          She kinda looks like FF … norm would you like to feature in some videos promoting the new line of blow ups?

          We’ll have you out to dinner with FF wooing her… then it’s back to the attic… for a drinky-poo… then some music to get FF in the mood.. then we do a bit of soft p-orn as you show everyone those moves… every week we’ll feature a different doll with our man about town … just let us know and we’ll order your next date from the factory in China

          https://toronto.citynews.ca/wp-content/blogs.dir/sites/10/2011/06/eecd105c4573b0f18014a3549b6f.jpeg

    • Hubbs says:

      I find it distressing to see my alma mater handing out bicentennial awards for those who helped create Remdesivir.

      Dr. Elizabeth “Libby” Hohmann ’80
      A staff physician in the Infectious Diseases Division at Massachusetts General Hospital, Hohmann served as a site principal investigator of the National Institutes of Health’s double-blind, placebo-controlled remdesivir trial for the treatment of Covid-19. She also directed the hospital’s institutional review board, which seeks to protect the rights and welfare of human subjects, during its Covid vaccine trials.

      https://today.williams.edu/announcements/williams-to-award-bicentennial-medals-at-the-2022-convocation-ceremonies/

    • Jarle says:

      > I find it heartbreaking when I see educated mothers taking their children to be Jabbed while the kids are dressed in superhero costumes.

      Not educated, then.

    • Xabier says:

      Very sad indeed.

      The children as Vaxx ‘super-heroes’ propaganda meme is satanic and disgusting.

      Their parents been through the system known as ‘education’, but are neither truly educated (which should imply an intelligently sceptical cast of mind) cultured nor wise.

      Utterly ignorant even of 20th c history and its horrors, too.

      And so they can just be led by the nose to their doom.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        But they are compliant and trust in CNNBBC – norm is a role model – the perfect citizen.

        Dance for the Elders norm … come on norm show us how you are a good boy who does whatever he is told.

    • CTG says:

      Heart-breaking?? Seriously?? Was it a heart break when the same people forced you to take the jab or lose that job?? Did they pity you????

      This asymmetric warfare is so asymmetric!!one side has feelings while the other side is souless

  39. Fast Eddy says:

    The more the CovIDIOTS sicken (because of VAIDS) the more they insist on getting boosted… cuz if not for the boosters it would have been much worse.

    Let’s recognize the brilliance of the PR Team and their masters… the Elders

  40. Fast Eddy says:

    We’ve got a 4x Rat Juiced employee who is extremely sick with the Vid… they are considering hospitalizing her…

    I am trying to nudge the Titanic so it avoids he berg suggesting taking Hydroxy.. explained how I took it as soon as I felt ill and started to improve within hours… Iver is not available in HK but Hydroxy is…

    The pushback is – you are so strong to recover so fast… um … no … I took Hydroxy…that’s why I recovered.

    The doctors are not prescribing it so as expected she won’t take it cuz I recommended it.

    You do NOT want to end up in the hospital with the Vid… a bit of Remdeathisnear + some Midazolam … and that’s all she wrote.

    They obviously won’t listen if I try to warn them off of these two drugs. They will listen to Dr Mengele…

    F789 squared.

  41. MG says:

    The life in the past was very easy in comparison with your situation today: as there was no increasingly complicated healthcare facing increasing genetic mutations, you simply died as soon as it was possible.

    Hopefully, there will be another great pandemic soon, that will eliminate either our enemies or individuals we have to fight and compete every day with or ourselves.

    • 1950-2000 was the best half century ever.

      perhaps the death rate of the Jabbed will explode exponentially in 2023.

      right now it’s too low.

      • 1945-1970 was the ‘best time’—it coincided with the freewheeling run after WW2

        ie—maximum oil-burn

        in 1970 the USA went into oil deficit, so ‘oil wars’ became inevitiable, a a matter of future survival

        1970 to 2020, brings us to ‘now’–ie 50 years to run out of momentum

        everything is going crazy—why?

        one word….. denial. Simple when you think about it.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          The situation is like going from flying a plane with a tail wind pushing the plane along, to flying a plane into an increasingly strong headwind. The tailwind makes everything go well. Additional energy per capita pushes the economy along.

          1970 was the tipping point on the easiest-to-get US crude oil production. After that, the cost of production and delivery to where the oil was needed rose. Natural gas production was similarly constricted. It became increasingly necessary to hide this rising cost of oil and natural gas production using financial means. Part of the way this was accomplished was through debt and lower interest rates, started after 1981. Part of this was a shift to bigger corporations, with more hierarchy, and more wage disparity. Part of this was more emphasis on complexity–higher education and “medicine can do anything.” Part of this was an emphasis on “efficiency.” Part of this was the beginning of more emphasis on world trade–by working together world markets can lower costs.

          As 2020 approached, world leaders discovered that the story was getting more and more grim. They no longer could tell the real story. They needed to start pushing a new narrative. The new narrative was that humans could get along without supplemental energy. Our biggest enemy is climate change. We need to shut down the economy, for fear of causing climate change. By shutting down fossil fuel production and delivery, we are working to benefit future generations. Renewables can save us.

          The real issue, of course, is that the world is running short of energy per capita. Renewable energy really doesn’t do much. Some people must be pushed out of the way, to keep the economy from fracturing completely. The approaches that are used need to be different than when there was plenty of energy to fight world wars. As practice, there have been wars on all kinds of things: war on terrorism, war on poverty, war on drugs. The world starts operating with undeclared wars, with every country struggling to hold its own.

          Governments add all kinds of restrictions, to contend with lower energy availability. Underlying these restrictions are (1) a desire to keep order, (2) a desire to use less energy (because it is becoming unaffordable), (3) a desire to maintain a fictional “this is really the way we want the situation to be,” so citizens will not become alarmed. Small issues are magnified to become big issues, to further this situation. Lockdowns and movement restrictions are put in place. The military shifts from fighting wars using weapons that depend on more energy, to stealth operations such as blowing up the natural gas pipelines that could bring natural gas from Russia to Europe.

          Because of (3), there is a need for increased censorship, to keep the real situation hidden from citizens.

          • Dennis L. says:

            Thoughtful.

            Dennis L.

          • pretty much correct Gail.

            My addendum to (3) would be that you can have (3) if you vote for ‘me”.

            Vote for me and all will be well.

            Which pretty much covers the electioneering of all politicians.

            It certainly covers the Magamania of the last few years—doesn’t matter if the POTUS is a proven crook—so long as ”my” magaworld remains intact.

          • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
            Ed says:

            I think you are right Gail. All the show on the part of the PTB is just that show so they can feel good.

  42. Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
    Gail Tverberg says:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/global-wages-take-hit-inflation-eats-paychecks

    Global Wages Take A Hit As Inflation Eats Into Paychecks

    The global inflation crisis paired with lackluster economic growth and an outlook clouded by uncertainties have led to a decline in real [inflation-adjusted] wages around the world, a new report published by the International Labour Organization (ILO) has found.

    As Statista’s Felix Richter reports, according to the 2022-23 Global Wage Report, global real monthly wages fell 0.9 percent this year on average, marking the first decline in real earnings at a global scale in the 21st century.

    https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/28886.jpeg

    This cannot be good for the world economy. When paired with rising interest rates, it looks very bad. The amount shown is based on six month data, annualized.

  43. Rodster says:

    Western Values or as George Carlin once said: “When you are born into this world you are given a ticket to the freak show and if you where born in America, you get a front row seat”.

    “Teacher Who Wears Large Prosthetic Breasts Subject Of College Review, Possible Lawsuit“

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/teacher-who-wears-large-prosthetic-breasts-subject-college-review-possible-lawsuit

    • “A dress code that results in deferential treatment⁠—that’s key to really pay attention to this word, deferential treatment⁠—will generally be found to be discriminatory,” Taha said.”

      The parents may struggle to find a legal basis for excluding the teacher. Obviously there is not going to be a rule that limits how large a teacher’s breasts may be, and it seems unlikely that such a rule could be legally imposed specifically on trans.

      But if there is no limit, then what if the parts in question were 20 foot large sat there in front of the class and that is all that the kids could see of the teacher? Could the teacher request that the doors in the school all be widened to allow them through? Not that this teaching is doing that.

      I am not going to pretend to be stressed by the questions of contemporary Western ethics. They are ‘grounded’ on personal freedom, which nevertheless has limits in any society, and it is not entirely coherent as one person’s freedom affects that of another.

      Liberalism likely reflects the individualism of the economic base and consumerism. Traditional constrictions on personal freedom are being stripped away. Whether that ‘matters’ is a matter of opinion. I can certainly imagine ethical questions that would likely disturb me a lot more than this one.

    • MG says:

      S/he should wear brsts without nppls.

      It is these sucking devices that are irritating/exciting.

    • MG says:

      Replacing nppls with some home faucets or industrial valves could help, too.

    • Kim says:

      This guy is trolling them. Very successfully.

      • wratfink says:

        Yes, he is. Apparently, he was being harassed for being a straight white conservative male that didn’t approve of all the pronoun gender business.

        Seems he turned the tables on them, and they don’t know what to do.

  44. CTG says:

    Putin Signs Into Law Sweeping Ban On “LGBT Propaganda”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/putin-signs-law-sweeping-ban-lgbt-propaganda

    This would explode some heads in the West…

    (we are living out the final days of Calhoun Rat Experiment)

  45. Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
    Ed says:

    It seems to me there is a world wide coordinated plan to significantly decrease food production, electric supply, medical service and supplies, transport, fuels, home heating fuels to well below the level needed for eight billion humans. My guess now, this is the plan. It will become clear that the number of humans must be lowered to say 0.5 billion. With the growing use and normalization of government euthanasia a simple TV propaganda push will have the obedient lining up to die.

    • assuming an absence of irony

      i can only applaud your simplicity of thinking

      let’s hope the queues for the extermination centres are orderly. (i assume those running the centres, as an act of selfless destruction, will top themselves.)

      please elaborate on how the remaining 0.5 billion will sustain themselves

      • Kim says:

        It is the plan. Of course, it may not be a good one.

        Personally, i think the plan is to shutter the West, use North America and Australia as a quarry and farm with minimal labor required, and most of the continent rewilded.

        Asia can run for a very long time indeed on North American and Venezuelan oil sands. Eliminating the US and Canadian government and social overheads would make them cheap enough to mine and export to Asia.

        We are in fact seeing before our eyes the West being imploded and shuttered while Chinese infrastructure build out continues apace.

        China will have a population reduction too. I have seen it reported as falling to 740 million by 2100.

        https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/09/03/chinas-population-to-drop-by-half-immigration-helps-us-labor-force/?sh=12c6bab13d65

        • i admire your gift for fantasy Kim

          ‘minimum labour required’ translates into ‘maximum fossil fuel required’

          That just isn’t the way our future is going to pan out I’m afraid

          • reante
            reante says:

            Correct Norm. They can’t get there from here. That’s still a global industrial operation just stripped-down. It wouldn’t require as much throughput but it would still require similar EROEI, and it wouldn’t have economies of scale working for it any longer, nor the high-powered financial system. Oil sands doesn’t exist without an Everything Bubble.

      • CTG says:

        I find it really fascinating living out this life (or a movie/simulation/show/whatever).

        There are people who just simple refuse to even allocate 1 minute to listen and think. They are all educated or even very educated people. All along, I just say, perhaps only a few people have this type of behaviour.

        Until COVID struck, then I realized that only a small fraction of people can do it. Stop and listen and think.

        Does it really matter if it is COVID, flat earth, alients, conpsiracies etc?

        Why would a person say that he has no intention to spend even 1 second listening to the arguments presented? Why? Aren’t one interested to find out ?

        I have no answer

        • i have no answer either ctg

          mainly because there isn’t one

          if humankind is effectively in some kind of simulation, then it is a kind of cosmic whack-a-mole

          other than that, (and I take time to point this out because you have a certain level of intellect)–there is no ‘simulation.’

          we have brought ourselves to where we are, because of what we are—just an acquisitive species of hominid who scooped the planetary jackpot through the lottery of firemaking. (or so we thought)

          There is nothing, literally nothing, beyond that.

          Once we could make fire at will—our endgame here was sealed. It is where we are at–right now.

          You are in a position to ‘imagine’ simulations and stuff through that single factor. Nothing else.

          That is what I ask you to think.—I doubt if you will though.

          • nikoB says:

            I honestly can’t see a point to the simulation aspect. Even if it is a simulation it is our reality and there is nothing we can do to change it that I can see. Happy to learn more if we can.

            • problem with the simulation nonsense (and others) is that if enough people ‘agree’ with a really daft idea, and circulate it to others equally gullible, then in no time at all, the ‘daft idea’ becomes ‘established fact’, beyond question or dispute.

              And to offer contradiction on the grounds of basic common sense serves to raise all kinds of unsavoury ‘innuendo’. Which I find both amusing and revealing.

              If you doubt that—check out the rantings of Alex Jones (and others), then check the millions who hang on his every word as ‘fact’. And in some cases, repeat it on OFW.

            • Tim Groves says:

              “Common sense” dictates that the Sun revolves around the Earth. And even after Copernicus, Galileo, Kepler, Newton and Carl Sagan have produced various explanations that prove beyond all reasonable doubt that “the Earth moves around the Sun” is a far more accurate description of what’s really going on (although not totally accurate, off course), most people still don’t get it. They say things like: “sunrise,” “sunset,” “the sun comes up,” “the sun goes down, and — more poetically — “bright Phoebus is lilting leisurely into the morning sky.”

            • tim

              I can only assume you are choosing to write something silly in the absence of sense.

              ”genuine real authentic” tells me you have trouble with emphatic word-focus, using three where one would do.

              sloppy English, if I may say so. Please try harder.

              Still—i guess that would be necessary, to absorb a reality where ‘they’ would fake 6 moon landings instead of trying to fake just one.
              Since you are a lifetime co-resident with Alice in Eddyland, I do not find that in any way surprising. Suspension of belief there is critical to continued existence.

              And I sold my soul years ago—so in that you are quite correct.

            • lol

              nothing to say

              fall back on vaxxing

              love it

            • 7.06 today

              i wish i wasn’t such a lazy old git

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Yep – even if is a simulation – it remains our reality … doesn’t matter if you are in a single dimension (the CNNBBC norm dimension) or you realize it’s all programmed in … it’s a version of reality.

              It is impossible to ascertain the truth on any of this ….

            • first shred of truth so far today eddy

              you could always be simulated

              (or should that be stimulated?)

            • Cromagnon says:

              The point may be (if Gnostics, cathars) are to be believed, is that there are demonic entities, Archons, devils etc feeding off human emotional energies in this realm. We are trapped inside a giant farm if you will and we are livestock. The point of recognizing the simulation is so that individual souls upon bodily death tell these “ oh so benevolent” angelic beings to pound sand and to refuse to go into “ the light “….. and thus escape the reincarnation trap.

              If it’s all just a complex sim to solve an existential threat to “ our species” then I hope someone is holding a cold beer for me and is ready for some questions.

              With my luck a damned archon will now offer my soul a beer to try and con me!

              Pun intended.

          • in2bikeblog
            in2bikeblog says:

            Tend to agree. There might be some solace, smallish, in the power of “nothing”. May have created the universe.

            • Speculation on ‘creation of the universe’ is the road to mental nowhere, because that really is unknowable—it’s where gods come from etc etc.

              speculation, discussion–maybe, but best to avoid dogma on that one

              it leads to war—which is idiotic

          • CTG says:

            Withnail

            Fortunately, unfortunately., I am given people time to present what they have to say and then I decide it is is worth pursuing. I don’t dismiss people upfront. Life is too short for me not to learn anything new. I treasure life and I want to enrich my life.

            I guess NPCs are not interested in learning (perhaps the truth).

            Buddhism places truth as something very important.

            https://www.pbs.org/edens/thailand/buddhism.htm#:~:text=The%20Four%20Noble%20Truths&text=They%20are%20the%20truth%20of,to%20bring%20about%20its%20end.

            Buddhism is not a religion but a philosophy of life.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Once upon a time there were quite a few moments when I read something and thought —hmmm I’ve got that wrong…

              But as time goes by those moments become fewer and fewer.

              For obvious reasons

          • I do read some of the garbage—but not all.

            That’s the only way of finding a ‘balanced’ way of thinking.

            If I didn’t read some of Eddy’s (and other’s) drivel, I would have nothing to compare ‘sense’ with. And trust me—Eddy’s drivel is typical of what’s out there.

            Sandy Hook was done by crisis actors. (Eddyquote). As is the Ukraine war for that matter.

            Repeating what Alex Jones asserted. Alex Jones has millions of listeners. Alex Jones, quite rightly, was sued by grieving parents. But Eddy thinks it’s a joke, and repeats it again.
            What do they have in common?

            Attention seeking–pure and simple. Barstooling—Soapboxing, Been saying it for years.

            I don’t call nonsense to everyone CTG—I was happy to leave your ‘simulation’ stuff alone (that was your business, nothing to do with me)—until you decided otherwise. Then you invited a broadside from me. I would prefer not to, because you have an intellect I respect.
            That garbage just lets you down.

          • Dennis L. says:

            Norm, beg to differ.

            “we have brought ourselves to where we are, because of what we are—just an acquisitive species of hominid who scooped the planetary jackpot through the lottery of firemaking. (or so we thought)”

            For me, much too self centered, we are part of the fabric of the universe, free will is a myth.

            Dennis L.

            • Dennis

              You and I are made of the same ‘stuff’ as trees, caterpillars and dinosaurs. Just in different proportions that’s all.

              We contain the same driving forces of function as those and every other species that has existed on this planet over the past 2 bn years or so.

              Which is?

              The need to survive to the point of reproduction of self. (yes, free will is a myth)
              To that end we eat and fornicate as much and as often as possible.
              Once we have accomplished that, our purpose here becomes surplus to requirements. We are then expected to make room for upcoming generations of whatever critter we happen to be.

              All the fripperies of modern civilisation merely allows us to ignore that.

              Such a notion might fill you with horror–but you are not a hunter-gatherer because you pay a farmer and butcher to do the messy work for you.
              Because of that you could reproduce in safety and comfort. No risk of any bigger creature eating you while you’re ‘at it’ on Sunday mornings.
              You had a profession (dentistry I think?) which allowed you to ‘acquire’ the means for a comfortable existence.
              All of us ‘acquire’ to the level that circumstance allows. We are driven to do that.

              Unfortunately the last 10 generations have been an anomaly in nature’s terms.
              We have ‘acquired’ the means to do it by, (as I said) winning the lottery of firemaking.
              That brought us to where we are, because of what we are.

              We did the eating and fornicating part–but circumstances (fire and its products) allowed us to outstay our welcome.
              Now there’s too many of us.

              It could well be that the act of firemaking will terminate our lease here.
              Who knows?

            • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
              Ed says:

              Norm, we will still burn wood after the FF are gone.

            • ed

              i live pretty much on the exact spot where the industrial revolution started

              it didn’t start because someone said—‘lets have an industrial revolution”’

              it started because they were running out of trees.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            norm’s answer to all the difficult questions is…. is….. wait for it… wait…

            NOW.

            More Boosters!

        • Dennis L. says:

          CTG,

          What difference will the arguments have even if accepted?

          Dennis L.

          • CTG says:

            Dennis, if they accepted and listen, then perhaps they may change their opinion on things. If they allow you a chance to talk, then their opinion on things will change.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      If the energy supply is essentially “out of reach,” because its cost of production is too high relative to the benefit the energy provides, then the leaders are forced to decrease food production, electric supply, medical service and supplies, transport, fuels, home heating fuels to well below the level needed for eight billion humans. They can describe the situation as “a plan to prevent climate change” and “for the good of future generations.” But the result is exactly the same–we have to reduce energy supply, one way or another.

      With less energy, a lower world population can be supported. With less energy, people will become more susceptible to diseases. There will be more war and conflict among people. Perhaps euthanasia will become popular. It would be nice if there is a religious ending (such as a Savior comes down out of the clouds), but we can’t count on it.

      Also, with less energy, leaders will want to keep tighter control over their people, so that what little energy is available (and goods and services made with energy) can be rationed appropriately to the people. We are seeing this already in China.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I fear there will be no saviour… rather we’ll get norm banging on a pot leading the diseased and dying CovIDIOTS to the emergency Booster Station while chanting BBCCNN BBCCNN…

      • Gail,
        You are an intellectual gem and I want to thank you for all that you do and have done. Last December you had an article titled to the effect is the world approaching end times? Above you write it would be nice if there is a religious ending a saviour coming down from the clouds.
        When some process the logic behind the current madness in the world (Ukraine, Sars, mandates, energy currencies etc.) And are truly open to an explanation they may have a spiritual revalation.
        Further pursuit along that path may very well have one discover that they look no further for the savior because the savior (christ consciousness) is within themself.

        Something to consider
        Christ consciousness is a term used in the spiritual community as an ideal to be strived for as the highest level of consciousness possible on earth as I understand it.
        Christ I believe is derived from the Greek word Christos meaning oil. Messiah is a term meaning anointed with. Loosely christ the messiah would translate to annoited with oil. Perhaps for those that become spiritually awake while witnessing peak oil and industrial civilization decline is one way to obtain christ consciousness? There very likely is more to it but I still find it quite interesting.

        Again thank you very much for all you do!

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          My impression is that Christos the Messiah means “Anointed with oil.” So oil is important. I am not certain about the meaning of the individual words.

          I suppose that it is possible that people will become spiritually awake while witnessing peak oil and the decline of industrial civilization. I don’t think that the world has the energy to support the churches we have today, however. The shutdowns reduced attendance.

          But maybe there is a different way. Local home groups and online ministries, for example. Maybe younger people can come to believe.

          • No doubt the physical limitations exist in the current operating system. How does the saying go you can’t expect to solve the problem on the same level consciousness that created it.

      • Dennis L. says:

        Gail,

        Life is, no more no less.

        Even among the pious, sometimes after carrying a child for nine months it is lost, no malice, part of life.

        Dennis L.

    • Withnail says:

      It seems to me there is a world wide coordinated plan to significantly decrease food production, electric supply, medical service and supplies, transport, fuels, home heating fuels to well below the level needed for eight billion humans.

      There’s no plan. You’re just describing the unplanned process of collapse.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The “plan” can be understood as the natural result of years of low profits and an inability to make adequate reinvestment in the fossil fuel industry. This is the way inadequate return on investment plays out.

      People have assumed that energy prices of all kinds will rise higher and higher. But for this to happen, the less efficient users of energy must be somehow squeezed out of the system. The inadequate return on investment tends to squeeze out these players, in a natural way, without there necessarily being a coordinated planning place.

      There is really a two-sided fight going on. On one side, we have the very wealthy, who want ever more wealth and power. On the other side, we have the many poor people of the world, with some worse off than others. We also have many countries that are energy-poor, that are struggling to provide an adequate living for their citizens. The countries and cities with the worst problems tend to have uprisings by citizens. Shut downs save energy and tend to stop the uprisings.

      The idea of shutdowns spread around the world partly because they could keep peace and partly because they could reduce the need for expensive imported energy supplies.

    • Cromagnon says:

      Temperature in my part of the world is forecast to drop to -51 C tonight.
      If the elite want to kill off a few million souls here’s their chance?!

      There was a reason historically why the Cree and Blackfoot nations only made war in summer. The rest of the time the Wetigo and Arctic Sabe moved toward the camps of humans.

      Moderns have no clue what is coming.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Where do you live? Canada?

  46. I AM THE MOB says:

    Once everyone and everything is tracked and traced.

    We can move beyond the “tragedy of the commons” and create global communism.

    The Purest form!

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Sounds awful to those of us who would be in the huge number of citizens affected. Not enough to go around, I am sure.

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