Today’s Energy Crisis Is Very Different from the Energy Crisis of 2005

Back in 2005, the world economy was “humming along.” World growth in energy consumption per capita was rising at 2.3% per year in the 2001 to 2005 period. China had been added to the World Trade Organization in December 2001, ramping up its demand for all kinds of fossil fuels. There was also a bubble in the US housing market, brought on by low interest rates and loose underwriting standards.

Figure 1. World primary energy consumption per capita based on BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

The problem in 2005, as now, was inflation in energy costs that was feeding through to inflation in general. Inflation in food prices was especially a problem. The Federal Reserve chose to fix the problem by raising the Federal Funds interest rate from 1.00% to 5.25% between June 30, 2004 and June 30, 2006.

Now, the world is facing a very different problem. High energy prices are again feeding over to food prices and to inflation in general. But the underlying trend in energy consumption is very different. The growth rate in world energy consumption per capita was 2.3% per year in the 2001 to 2005 period, but energy consumption per capita for the period 2017 to 2021 seems to be slightly shrinking at minus 0.4% per year. The world seems to already be on the edge of recession.

The Federal Reserve seems to be using a similar interest rate approach now, in very different circumstances. In this post, I will try to explain why I don’t think that this approach will produce the desired outcome.

[1] The 2004 to 2006 interest rate hikes didn’t lead to lower oil prices until after July 2008.

It is easiest to see the impact (or lack thereof) of rising interest rates by looking at average monthly world oil prices.

Figure 2. Average monthly Brent spot oil prices based on data of the US Energy Information Administration. Latest month shown is July 2022.

The US Federal Reserve began raising target interest rates in June 2004 when the average Brent oil price was only $38.22 per barrel. These interest rates stopped rising at the end of June 2006, when oil prices averaged $68.56 per barrel. Oil prices on this basis eventually reached $132.72 per barrel in July 2008. (All of these amounts are in dollars of the day, rather than being adjusted for inflation.) Thus, the highest price was over three times the price in June 2004, when the US Federal Reserve made the decision to start raising target interest rates.

Based on Figure 2 (including my notes regarding the timing of the interest rate rise), I would conclude that raising interest rates didn’t work very well at bringing down the price of oil when it was tried in the 2004 to 2006 period. Of course, the economy was growing rapidly, then. The rapid growth of the economy likely led to the very high oil price shown in mid-2008.

I expect that the result of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates now, in a low-growth world economy, might be quite different. The world’s debt bubble might pop, leading to a worse situation than the financial crisis of 2008. Indirectly, both asset prices and commodity prices, including oil prices, would tend to fall very low.

Analysts looking at the situation from strictly an energy perspective tend to miss the interconnected nature of the economy. Factors which energy analysts overlook (particularly debt becoming impossible to repay, as interest rates rise) may lead to an outcome that is pretty much the opposite result of the standard belief. The typical belief of energy analysts is that low oil supply will lead to very high prices and more oil production. In the current situation, I expect that the result might be closer to the opposite: Oil prices will fall because of financial problems brought on by the higher interest rates, and these lower oil prices will lead to even lower oil production.

[2] The purpose of the US Federal reserve raising target interest rates was to flatten the growth rate of the world economy. Looking back at Figure 1, the growth in energy consumption per capita was much lower after the Great Recession. I doubt that now in 2022, we want even lower growth (really, more shrinkage) in energy consumption per capita for future years.*

Looking at Figure 1, growth in energy consumption per capita has been very slow since the Great Recession. A person wonders: What is the point of governments and their central banks pushing the world economy down, now in 2022, when the world economy is already barely able to maintain international supply lines and provide enough diesel for all of the world’s trucks and agricultural equipment?

If the world economy is pushed downward now, what would the result be? Would some countries find themselves unable to afford fossil fuel energy products in the future? This might lead to problems both in growing and transporting food, at least for these countries. Would the whole world suffer a major crisis of some sort, such as a financial crisis? The world economy is a self-organizing system. It is difficult to forecast precisely how the situation would work out.

[3] While the growth rate in energy consumption per capita was much lower after 2008, the price of crude oil quickly bounced back to over $120 per barrel in inflation-adjusted prices in the 2011-2013 time frame.

Figure 3 shows that oil prices immediately bounced back up after the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Quantitative Easing (QE), which the US Federal Reserve began in late 2008, helped energy prices to shoot back up again. QE helped keep the cost of borrowing by governments low, allowing governments to run larger deficits than might otherwise have been possible without interest rates rising. These higher deficits added to the demand for commodities of all types, including oil, thus raising prices.

Figure 3. Average annual oil prices inflation-adjusted oil prices based on data from BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy. Amounts shown are Brent equivalent spot prices.

The chart above shows average annual Brent oil prices through 2021. The above chart does not show 2022 prices. The current Brent oil price is about $91 per barrel. So, oil prices today are a little higher than they have been recently, but they are nowhere nearly as high as they were in the 2011 to 2013 period or in the late 1970s. The extreme reaction we are seeing is very strange. The problem seems to be much more than oil prices, by themselves.

[4] High prices in the 2006 to 2013 period allowed the rise of unconventional oil production. These high oil prices also helped keep conventional oil production from falling after 2005.

It is difficult to find detail on the precise amount of unconventional oil, but some countries are known for their unconventional oil production. For example, the US has become a leader in the extraction of tight oil from shale formations. Canada also produces a little tight oil, but it also produces quite a bit of very heavy oil from the oil sands. Venezuela produces a different type of very heavy oil. Brazil produces crude oil from under the salt layer of the ocean, sometimes called pre-salt crude oil. These unconventional types of extraction tend to be expensive.

Figure 4 shows world oil production for various combinations of countries. The top line is total world crude oil production. The bottom gray line approximates world total conventional oil production. Unconventional oil production has been rising since, say, 2010, so this approximation is better for years 2010 and subsequent years on the chart, than it is for earlier years.

Figure 4. Crude and condensate oil production based on international data of the US Energy Information Administration. The lower lines subtract the full amount of crude and condensate production for the countries listed. These countries have substantial amounts of unconventional oil production, but they may also have some conventional production.

From this chart, it appears that world conventional oil production leveled off after 2005. Some people (often referred to as “Peak Oilers”) were concerned that conventional oil production would reach a peak and begin to decline, starting shortly after 2005.

The thing that seems to have kept production from falling after 2005 is the steep rise in oil prices in the 2004 to 2008 period. Figure 3 shows that oil prices were quite low between 1986 and 2003. Once oil prices began to rise in 2004 and 2005, oil companies found that they had enough revenue that they could start adopting more intensive (and expensive) extraction techniques. This allowed more oil to be extracted from existing conventional oil fields. Of course, diminishing returns still set in, even with these more intensive techniques.

These diminishing returns are probably a major reason that conventional oil production started to fall in 2019. Indirectly, diminishing returns likely contributed to the decline in 2020, and the failure of the oil supply to bounce back up to its 2018 (or 2019) level in 2021.

[5] A better way of looking at world crude oil production is on a per capita basis because the world’s crude oil needs depend on world population.

Everyone in the world needs the benefit of crude oil, since it is used both in farming and in transporting goods of all kinds. Thus, the need for crude oil rises with population growth. I prefer analyzing crude oil production on a per capita basis.

Figure 5. Per capita crude oil production based on international data by country from the US Energy Information Administration.

Figure 5 shows that on a per capita basis, conventional crude oil production (gray bottom line) started declining after 2005. It was only with the addition of unconventional oil that crude oil production per capita could remain fairly level between 2005 and 2018 or 2019.

[6] Unconventional oil, if analyzed by itself, seems to be quite price sensitive. If politicians everywhere want to hold oil prices down, the world cannot count on extracting very much of the huge amount of unconventional oil resources that seem to be available.

Figure 6. Crude oil production based on international data for the US Energy Information Administration for each of the countries shown.

On Figure 6, crude oil production dips in 2016 – 2017 and also in 2020 – 2021. Both the 2016 and the 2020 dips are related to low prices. The continued low prices in 2017 and 2021 may reflect start-up problems after a low price, or they may reflect skepticism that prices can stay high enough to make continued extraction profitable. Canada seems to show similar dips in its oil production.

Venezuela shows a fairly different pattern. Information from the US Energy Information Administration mentions that the country started having major problems once the world oil price started falling in 2014. I am aware that the US has had sanctions against Venezuela in recent years, but it seems to me that these sanctions are closely related to Venezuela’s oil price problems. If Venezuela’s very heavy oil could really be extracted profitably, and the producers of this oil could be taxed to provide services for the people of Venezuela, the country would not have the many problems that it has today. The country likely needs a price between $200 and $300 per barrel to allow for sufficient funds for extraction plus adequate tax revenue.

Brazil’s oil production seems to be relatively more stable, but its growth has been slow. It has taken many years to get its production up to 2.9 million barrels per day. There is also some pre-salt oil production just now getting started in Angola and other countries of West Africa. This type of oil requires a high level of technical expertise and imported resources from around the world. If world trade falters, this type of oil production is likely to falter, as well.

A large share of the world’s oil reserves are unconventional oil reserves, of one type or another. The fact that rising oil prices are a real problem for citizens means that these unconventional reserves are unlikely to be tapped. Instead, we may be dealing with seriously short supplies of products we need for operating our economies, including diesel oil and jet fuel.

[7] Figure 1 at the beginning of this post indicated falling energy consumption per capita. This problem extends to more than oil. On a per capita basis, both coal and nuclear energy consumption are falling.

Practically no one pays any attention to coal consumption, but this is the fuel that allowed the Industrial Revolution to start. It is reasonable to expect that since the world economy started using coal first, it might be the first to deplete. Figure 7 shows that world coal consumption per capita hit a peak in 2011 and has declined since then.

Figure 7. World coal consumption per capita, based on data from BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Many of us have heard about Aesop’s Fable, The Fox and the Grapes. According to Wikipedia, “The story concerns a fox that tries to eat grapes from a vine but cannot reach them. Rather than admit defeat, he states they are undesirable. The expression ‘sour grapes’ originated from this fable.”

In the case of coal, we are told that coal is undesirable because it is very polluting and raises CO2 levels. While these things are true, coal has historically been very inexpensive, and this is important for people buying coal. Coal is also easy to transport. It could be used for fuel instead of cutting down trees, thus helping local ecosystems. The negative things that we are being told about coal are true, but it is hard to find an adequate inexpensive substitute.

Figure 8 shows that world nuclear energy per capita is also falling. To some extent, its fall has stabilized since 2012 because China and a few other “developing nations” have been adding nuclear capacity, while developed nations in Europe have tended to remove their existing nuclear power plants.

Figure 8. World nuclear electricity consumption per capita, based on data from BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy. Amounts are based on the amount of fossil fuels that this electricity would theoretically replace.

Nuclear energy is confusing because experts seem to disagree on how dangerous nuclear power plants are, over the long term. One concern relates to proper disposal of spent fuel after its use.

[8] The world seems to be at a difficult time now because we don’t have any good options for fixing our falling energy consumption per capita problem, without greatly reducing world population. The two choices that seem to be available both seem to be far higher-priced than is feasible.

There are two choices that seem to be available:

[A] Encourage large amounts of fossil fuel production by encouraging very high fossil fuel prices. With such high prices, say $300 per barrel for oil, unconventional crude oil in many parts of the world would be available. Unconventional coal, such as that under the North Sea, would also be available. With sufficiently high prices, natural gas production could be raised. This natural gas could be shipped as liquefied natural gas (LNG) around the world at great cost. Additionally, many processing plants could be built, both for supercooling the natural gas to allow it to be shipped around the world and for re-gasification, when it arrives at its destination.

With this approach, food costs would be very high. Much of the world’s population would need to work in the food industry and in fossil fuel production and shipping. With these priorities, citizens would not have time or money for most things we buy today. They likely could not afford a vehicle or a nice home. Governments would need to shrivel in size, with the usual outcome being government by a local dictator. Governments wouldn’t have sufficient funds for roads or schools. CO2 emissions would be very high, but this likely would not be our most serious problem.

[B] Try to electrify everything, including agriculture. Greatly ramp up wind and solar. Wind and solar are very intermittent, and their intermittency does not match up well with human needs. In particular, one of the world’s primary needs is for heat in winter, but solar energy comes in summer. It cannot be saved until winter with today’s technology. Spend enormous amounts and resources on electricity transmission lines and batteries to try to somewhat work around these problems. Try to find substitutes for the many things that fossil fuels provide today, including paved roads and chemicals used in agriculture and in medicine.

Hydroelectricity is also a renewable form of electricity generation. It cannot be expected to ramp up much because it has mostly been built out already.

Figure 9. World consumption of hydroelectricity per capita, based on data from BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Even if greatly ramped up, wind and solar electricity production would likely be grossly inadequate by themselves to try to operate any kind of economy. In addition, at a minimum, natural gas, shipped at very high cost as LNG around the world, would likely be needed. Also, huge quantity of batteries would be needed, leading to a short supply of materials. Huge quantities of steel would be needed to make new electrical machines to try to replace current oil-power machines. A minimum 50-year transition would likely be needed.

I am doubtful that this second approach would be feasible in any reasonable timeframe.

[9] Conclusion. Figure 1 seems to imply that the world economy is headed for troubled times ahead.

The world economy is a self-organizing system, so we cannot know precisely what form changes in the next few years will take. The economy can be expected to shrink back in an uneven pattern, with some parts of the world and some classes of citizens, such as workers versus the elderly, doing better than others.

Leaders will never tell us that the world has an energy shortage. Instead, leaders will tell us how awful fossil fuels are, so that we will be happy that the economy is losing their usage. They will never tell us how worthless intermittent wind and solar are for solving today’s energy problems. Instead, they will lead us to believe that a transition to vehicles powered by electricity and batteries is just around the corner. They will tell us that the world’s worst problem is climate change, and that by working together, we can move away from fossil fuels.

Again, the whole situation reminds me of Aesop’s Fables. The system puts a “good spin” on whatever frightening changes are happening. This way, leaders can convince their citizens that everything is fine when, in fact, it is not.

NOTE

*If the US Federal Reserve raises its target interest rate, central banks of other countries around the world are forced to take a similar action if they do not want their currencies to fall relative to the US dollar. Countries that do not raise their target interest rates tend to be penalized by the market: With a falling currency, the local prices of oil and other commodities tend to rise because commodities are priced in US dollars. As a result, citizens of these countries tend to face a worse inflation problem than they would otherwise face.

The country with the greatest increase in its target interest rate can, in theory, win, in what is more or less a competition to move inflation elsewhere. This competition cannot go on indefinitely, however, because every country depends, to some extent, on imports from other countries. If countries with weaker economies (i. e. those that cannot afford to raise interest rates) stop producing essential goods for world trade, it will tend to bring the world economy down.

Raising interest rates also raises the likelihood of debt defaults, and these debt defaults can be a huge problem, especially for banks and other financial institutions. With higher interest rates, pension funding becomes less adequate. Businesses of all kinds find new investment more expensive. Many businesses are likely to shrink or fail completely. These indirect impacts are yet another way for the world economy to fail.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,147 Responses to Today’s Energy Crisis Is Very Different from the Energy Crisis of 2005

  1. “Slowly but surely, what is emerging is the Big Picture of an irretrievably fractured world featuring a dual trade/circulation system: one will be revolving around the remnants of the dollar system, the other is being built centered on the association of BRICS, EAEU, and SCO.”

    > The Global South births a new game-changing payment system

    Challenging the western monetary system, the Eurasia Economic Union is leading the Global South toward a new common payment system to bypass the US Dollar.

    The Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) is speeding up its design of a common payment system, which has been closely discussed for nearly a year with the Chinese under the stewardship of Sergei Glazyev, the EAEU’s minister in charge of Integration and Macro-economy.

    Through its regulatory body, the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC), the EAEU has just extended a very serious proposal to the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) which, crucially, are already on the way to turning into BRICS+: a sort of G20 of the Global South.

    The system will include a single payment card – in direct competition with Visa and Mastercard – merging the already existing Russian MIR, China’s UnionPay, India’s RuPay, Brazil’s Elo, and others.

    That will represent a direct challenge to the western-designed (and enforced) monetary system, head on. And it comes on the heels of BRICS members already transacting their bilateral trade in local currencies, and bypassing the US dollar.

    This EAEU-BRICS union was long in the making – and will now also move toward prefiguring a further geoeconomic merger with the member nations of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

    The EAEU was established in 2015 as a customs union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, joined a year later by Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. Vietnam is already an EAEU free trade partner, and recently enshrined SCO member Iran is also clinching a deal.

    The EAEU is designed to implement free movement of goods, services, capital, and workers between member countries. Ukraine would have been an EAEU member if not for the Maidan coup in 2014 masterminded by the Barack Obama administration.

    Vladimir Kovalyov, adviser to the chairman of the EEC, summed it all up to Russian newspaper Izvestia. The focus is to establish a joint financial market, and the priority is to develop a common “exchange space:” “We’ve made substantial progress and now the work is focused on such sectors as banking, insurance, and the stock market.”

    A new regulatory body for the proposed joint EEU-BRICS financial system will soon be established.

    Meanwhile, trade and economic cooperation between the EAEU and BRICS have increased 1.5 times in the first half of 2022 alone.

    The BRICS share in the total external trade turnover of the EAEU has reached 30 percent, Kovalyov revealed at the BRICS International Business Forum this past Monday in Moscow:

    “It is advisable to combine the potentials of the BRICS and EAEU macro-financial development institutions, in particular the BRICS New Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), as well as national development institutions. This will make it possible to achieve a synergistic effect and ensure synchronous investments in sustainable infrastructure, innovative production, and renewable energy sources.”

    Here we once again see the advancing convergence of not only BRICS and EAEU but also the financial institutions deeply involved in projects under the China-led New Silk Roads, or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

    Halting the Age of Plunder

    As if all that was not game-changing enough, Russian President Vladimir Putin is raising the stakes by calling for a new international payment system based on blockchain and digital currencies.

    The project for such a system was recently presented at the 1st Eurasian Economic Forum in Bishkek.

    At the forum, the EAEU approved a draft agreement on cross-border placement and circulation of securities in member states, and amended technical regulations.

    The next big step is to organize the agenda of a crucial meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council on 14 December in Moscow. Putin will be there – in person. And there’s nothing he would love more than to make a game-changing announcement.

    All of these moves acquire even more importance as they connect to fast increasing, interlocking trade between Russia, China, India, and Iran: from Russia’s drive to build new pipelines serving its Chinese market – to Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan discussing a gas union for both domestic supplies and exports, especially to main client China.

    Slowly but surely, what is emerging is the Big Picture of an irretrievably fractured world featuring a dual trade/circulation system: one will be revolving around the remnants of the dollar system, the other is being built centered on the association of BRICS, EAEU, and SCO.

    Pushing further on down the road, the recent pathetic metaphor coined by a tawdry Eurocrat boss: the “jungle” is breaking away from the “garden” with a vengeance. May the fracture persist, as a new international payment system – and then a new currency – will aim to halt for good the western-centric Age of Plunder.

    https://thesaker.is/the-global-south-births-a-new-game-changing-payment-system/

    • drb753
      drb753 says:

      A 82-yrs old guy who has had numerous health problems in the past may not be the best example for your crusade, Eddy. Why, yesterday former biking world champion Rebellin died too, at 51. Why not use him too?

      • Student says:

        Sorry, but also Rebellin is not a good example.
        He has been hit by a truck yesterday.
        I think that good examples are the young people who suffer sudden death.
        For that we a full list of examples lately.
        But best thing is the full list of scientific researches that are popping up a lot lately and that main stream media and governments are ignoring.
        All the best.

        https://www.corrieredellosport.it/news/attualit/cronaca/2022/12/01-100636374/rebellin_caccia_al_camion_pirata_che_lo_ha_ucciso_novita_delle_indagini

        • drb753
          drb753 says:

          Yes, neither Rebellin nor Pele’ are good examples. A little sarcasm never killed anybody. I note that in the early covid days a young man in Florida, who died in a motorcycle accident, had covid as the cause of death (it was changed after a big brouhaha). The reliability of the alt media is now approaching that of mainstream media.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Cancer is usually a disease that kills slowly … Turbo Cancer is very unusual

          • Fast Eddy says:

            My old mate back in Canada was having trouble swallowing — went to the doctor and was told he was riddled with cancer… it was that fast… they didn’t even bother to try to remove it — shot him with some token chemo …

            He lingered for 2 or 3 months.

            100% vax-induced turbo cancer

            norm makes jokes about this … norm won’t make jokes when he gets wrecked.

            The boosted should not joke about vax injuries… Pure Bloods… we are allowed

            NOF

            • during the period of the last paralympics, we were subjected to a constant barrage of ”witticisms’ from you about the shortcomings of various competitors.

              i know you have a constant compulsion to divert your own inadequacies onto others (for obvious reasons), even to reaching for your kb the moment you fall out of bed every morning. You neglected me till 8 38 today–i was quite miffed!

              divert them onto me if you must, it will not hide their origin, other than to those who carry the same mindset as you.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              The NOF is getting irritable … don’t blame Fast Eddy for the 6 Mega Boosters that you’ve shot into your carcass norm … we told you so.

              You’ll end your days as a star player on the geriatric disabled volleyball team if you keep this up.

    • Says he had a stroke in 2014. He would have been in mid to late 20s. Born with a heart abnormality.

      • CTG says:

        Richard, does it make any sense to think that a fit sportsman in some serious sports (i.e. not shooting or archery) will be able to proceed at that pace if he had a stroke or heart abnormality from 2014 until today? I think he would be disqualified or would have died. Those who have stroke at such a young age are usually “good bye”….

        on the other news, SBF (FTX founder) said that “he did not ever try to commit fraud” , as brought to you by MSM…

        I chose to use critical thinking rather than believing what MSM or even alternative media write.

      • Stroke Before Age 45
        Older people are not the only one who have strokes. Certain health conditions can also cause strokes in the young.
        We think of stroke as something that happens to older people. But every year, about 70,000 Americans under age 45 have strokes.
        About 10 to 15 percent of strokes occur in children and adults under age 45, and that number is rising.
        According to the American Heart Association, incidents of stroke have increased 40% among young U.S. adults over the past several decades.

        https://unmhealth.org/stories/2021/05/young-adult-strokes.html

  2. Fast Eddy says:

    Alberta Just hit the Highest Year of COVID Deaths, today – OFFICIAL Statistics

    https://sheldonyakiwchuk.substack.com/p/alberta-just-hit-the-highest-year

    Safe? – no

    Effective? – no

  3. Fast Eddy says:

    My brother – 1300HP — anti-vaxxer… was in a restaurant on the weekend … there was a guy at another table and he was thinking the guy looks like one of his clients…

    While he’s wondering if it’s the guy – he gets an email … from the guy … who he thinks is in the restaurant. (it wasnt the guy)

    That is impossible.

    Simulation. CTG?

    • CTG says:

      FE, synchronicity happens so many times in everybody’s life. It happened so many times in life that I decided that it was “not a coincidence” anymore.

      If you are observant towards these things, you will realize that the world is full of it. Just last week, my cat went up the space between the roof tiles and the ceiling (we are in the tropics). The only way to that place was through 2 closed doors from our attic store room. No one opened the open 2 doors for the cat. The cat was in the house all the time. We had to rescue the cat the following day by opening an exhaust fan on the ceiling.

      Teleport perhaps? Simulation is probably the answer.

      • Sa says:

        🙄…..uh yeah……not. Might want to ease up on the drugs

        • reante
          reante says:

          or a wee diet related psychotic break. Unfortunately the psyche can get a lot of mileage out of little psychotic breaks taken as fact.

          • Cromagnon says:

            I have “ dreamt” game into “existence”.

            You spend several days “wishing” to see a specific animal ( cow moose with calf, adult boar bear, otter family etc.
            Then before sleep you spend some time meditating on same. I try to fall asleep to dream the same.
            If the dream occurs,.. within 24 hours I (or my son) will spot the targeted species.

            Sorta like a Paleolithic version of “ the secret “ lol

            We are in a very complex similacrum.
            Nothing else is logical.

            • reante
              reante says:

              Get back to me when you can dream up the existence of a bear in January or whatever. 🙂

              I believe that i can explain your experiences with Reason but it would take a lot of groundwork. I covered that ground over the course of several months at the viroliegy blog. Here’s the link to a comment of mine regarding dreams that was part of a lengthy conversation started earlier in the thread. I don’t expect you to reread the whole conversation, and it would probably be fairly impenetrable without further context (and, perhaps, a greater ability to communicate on my part) but here’s that comment FWIW. To summarize, your dreaming up animals represents a particular gift you have but in no way means that this holographic reality is a simulation that’s subordinate to a higher reality; Reason can explain it otherwise.

              https://viroliegy.com/2022/08/16/the-path-paved-by-dr-lanka/#comment-5969

      • sciouscience says:

        It doesn’t MATTER if Prob(sim)–>ထ. You (current alive human) don’t want to know for absolute truth as then you become ထ (unocontodos) at the moment of realization, actualization occurs and you cannot return to form.

  4. MG says:

    “The Mesolithic period in Europe, roughly 10,000 years ago, was a tumultuous time. Small groups of hunter-gatherers were undergoing a dramatic cultural transformation, making increasingly sophisticated stone tools with wooden components. They were on the cusp of the agricultural revolution, which would grant them a broader range of nutrition sources and greater food security. The environment was changing, too: the Ice Age was over, but the mid-Pleistocene warming period had not yet begun. And in a cave near the coast of Alicante, Spain, 120km south of Valencia, groups of humans began to engage in occasional acts of cannibalism.”

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/the-10000-year-old-case-of-the-spanish-cannibals/

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Not enough food supply?

      • Cromagnon says:

        Just eating woke neighbors and future government employees ( they smell useless).
        The similacrum is palindromic….. the future mirrors the past…..

  5. MG says:

    There is no local self-sufficiency anymore. Without the global supplies, you have just the local new stone age: the functioning and broken things around you that have been produced until now.

    The humans got into the very hostile areas and the deep underground requiring huge amounts of energy for living and extraction of resources.

    How was the living during the stone age? Just picking what is around you within your reach: crime, murder and cannibalism.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Murder rates seem to be high, based on what I have read. Someone who seemed inadequate was killed. People who were disabled or old were left behind.

      Other than that, have you seen evidence of crimes and cannibalism? Without a code of conduct, what we today consider crimes would not be crimes. If a person died, and the body seemed to be good for food, I can imagine that it might be eaten.

      • Dennis L. says:

        I though eating a similar species was bad for one’s health.

        Dennis L.

        • reante
          reante says:

          No there’s no biological justification for that belief.

          I agree with Gail, lack of civilization doesn’t mean chaos. It means natural law. The arc of justice bends towards ecological cost-benefit analyses rather that economic cost-benefit analyses. Ecological analyses are true self-organizing analyses because they’re founded in the self-organizing principles of the entire ecologies and not mere human interest.

      • tomsplaything
        Fred says:

        Australian Aborigines trace their culture back 50,000 years-ish. There are dated rock drawings that support this.

        They had elaborate cultural rituals to keep their population under control. Some of the rituals boiled down to infanticide and random murders.

        Dat’s the way it goes if you want to be sustainable.

        • reante
          reante says:

          Indeed, animism is hardcore conservatism with a little c. The phrase “random murders” does not resonate with me however, WRT population control. What do you mean by that and what’s the evidence or theory behind it?

  6. ivanislav says:

    So I’ve been looking into the claims that animal studies for prior coronavirus vaccines resulted in death … what I’m finding is a mixed bag, i.e. some were damaging, but many others were not. Here are two examples where there was damage, but again, not all animal studies had these results; some worked.

    Vaccine Efficacy in Senescent Mice Challenged with Recombinant SARS-CoV Bearing Epidemic and Zoonotic Spike Variants
    https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0030525

    Weingartl H, Czub M, Czub S, et al. Immunization with
    modified vaccinia virus Ankara-based recombinant vaccine
    against severe acute respiratory syndrome is associated with
    enhanced hepatitis in ferrets. J Virol. 2004;78:12672-12676.
    https://journals.asm.org/doi/full/10.1128/JVI.78.22.12672-12676.2004

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      First one talks about elderly not being protected; second one says, “our data suggest that vaccination with SARS-CoV S may lead to enhanced liver damage following SARS-CoV infection.”

    • Vern Baker says:

      I looked high and low for this information a couple years ago… and found nothing. However, all pharma also stopped reporting (illegally, I understood) for any and all lab results circa 2014.

      It very much appeared that no information was made available about any trial results to anyone, at least in a report format. This is about the time patents were filed and everything turned towards what ever they were trying to make happen now.

      The only thing I could find was that people knew people who said that all the animals died (for example).

      I would very much like to see something stated in court, or by a notable which would attest to this.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      they didn’t always die? ok – more boosters

    • banned says:

      Thank you for this effort. Many have made references that MRNA gene therapys prior roll outs never made it past animal trials but ive seen no specifics.

      It wouldnt be too terribly hard or cost prohibitive for a interested wealthy private party to do animal trials with the Pfizer product now after the fact. Buy some vaccine and have at it. Mike Adams comes to mind he has a laboratory and while he is not Elon he is not poor..

    • reante
      reante says:

      Thanks ivanislav

  7. Al Roker was rushed back to the hospital via ambulance the day after Thanksgiving amid his ongoing health scare due to blood clots.

    The beloved “Today” anchor fell ill on Friday — just a day after he missed hosting the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade for the first time in 27 years due to having just been released from the hospital.

    The popular weatherman, 68, was taken away by ambulance as his frantic wife, Deborah Roberts, attempted to break into their malfunctioned Tesla to retrieve her mobile phone to follow her husband to the uptown Manhattan hospital, sources say.

    Doesn’t look promising…..wonder what caused the clots?

    • drb753
      drb753 says:

      Somehow the detail of the wife trying to break into a malfunctioning Tesla makes this story very very good. Maybe in reality she had no land line, and precious minutes were wasted when she could not immediately call. Their Tesla, you see, had fried all electrical circuitry in the car, and the opener no longer worked.

  8. postkey
    postkey says:

    ‘”It’s the vaccinated who fall ill with Covid, not the unvaccinated”, says leading Japanese medical doctor, researcher and Kyoto University professor.’
    https://twitter.com/hugh_mankind/status/1597663704044408832?s=20&t=5eK7MokdeXhb5GOoNw2FtQ

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      “due to the vax, natural immunity has been suppressed”

      That is a good way of putting one of the problems the vaccine causes.

  9. Student says:

    (‘Otto e Mezzo’ – main stream tv programme)

    Lucio Caracciolo, well known geopolitical journalist on ‘Otto e Mezzo’ tonight (timing 04.55 of the video) speaks the following words:

    ‘I would like to report that it is now well known that almost all NATO countries have run out of ammunitions. If someone wants to invade European countries, this is the right time. (And then he closes) I’m joking, of course.’

    Link from timing 04:55 (for those who can understand Italian / Spanish):

    https://www.la7.it/otto-e-mezzo/video/ucraina-lucio-caracciolo-guerra-sempre-piu-crudele-che-armi-mandiamo-30-11-2022-462359

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I suppose if an internal group wanted to overthrow the government, governments would not be in much position to put the uprising down.

      • Student says:

        Yes, it is probable, but maybe in the ’60s or ’70s of the previous century, now European societies are so lobotomized and individualized that there is no risk of such an outcome.
        I think more about making a right point about the futility and uselessness of sending so many weapons to that country if you don’t have any left.

    • I have not gone too in depth with reading on it, but from the higher level I am not bought into this ammunition shortage idea. The premise is that because of Iraq and Afghanistan we depleted our Cold War stock piles going back to WW2 perhaps. We do have the same articles from a decade ago warning us of this exact issue. It certainly makes logical sense. But at the same time, does that not make great cover for keeping defense spending high regardless of the Ukraine outcome? How do we not know this is a narrative to support defense contractors. It’s a great narrative to get buy in (not that they need it) from the folks in the middle who may not be happy about foreign wars but care about security from foreign invaders.

    • Hubbs says:

      On the other hand, if Russian manufactured Tula and Wolf 7.62x54R, 7.62 x39 and 5.45×39 ammo is still available in bulk quantifies here in the US for civilian consumers then I would not anticipate any shortages with the Russian soldiers, especially if they can afford to leave some behind during their recent strategic withdrawals from the western occupied Kherson City territory, although ammo is very heavy to haul! Seems like there are no more 155mm US Howitzer shells left in the NATO /US arsenals to supply the 777s. Talk about being up the creek without a paddle. No wonder all the propaganda about the vaunted Ukrainian counter offenses over 6 weeks ago seems to have disappeared.
      “We’re fools too make war on our brothers in arms.”

  10. Fast Eddy says:

    Evasive Spike Variants Elucidate the Preservation of T Cell Immune Response to the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant

    From Geert: “I have written at least 5-6 articles to debunk the role of T cells in controlling the pandemic.

    People obviously do not understand the difference between T cell-mediated antigenicity and T cell-mediate sterilizing immunity. Of course: great conservation of T cells epitopes across a multitude of variants and even other CoVs. However, no evidence whatsoever that there is widespread induction of cytolytic memory T cells capable of killing SC-2-infected host cells.

    In the absence of those, there is no role for ‘their’ T cells to play in curtailing viral transmission and stopping this pandemic. Consequently, there is no broadly cross-protective MHC cl I-unrestricted epitope that could be used in a vaccine to induce cytolytic memory T cells and broadly protect people from productive infection and C-19 disease, regardless of the variant.

    What a waste of time and resources!”

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.11.04.515139v1

  11. Fast Eddy says:

    The PR Team is working it … ensuring nobody gets wind of the VAIDS thing….

    COVID Pandemic Led to Surge in Superbug Infections, EU Agency Says
    From Geert: “The surge in such infections (in highly C-19 vaccinated countries) is not due to a kind of evolution of these common pathogens into a ‘superbug’ phenotype that could allegedly have been driven by longer stays in the hospital and more antibiotic prescriptions!

    It is merely due to the fact that all attention of antigen-presenting cells (APCs) in highly vaccinated populations is now focused on stimulating tons of MHC-unrestricted cytolytic T cells (CTLs) to eliminate SARS-CoV-2-infected host cells. While being hijacked for this purpose, APCs cannot sufficiently take care of their other ‘professional’ duties, which is to serve as a general platform for antigen presentation to the host immune system.”

    https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/covid-pandemic-led-surge-superbug-infections-eu-agency-says-2022-11-17/

  12. Fast Eddy says:

    China’s COVID Cases Rise, Record Daily Numbers Seen in Beijing and Other Cities

    “The record highs also come as official media reported that work to remove “pop-up windows” on smartphone health apps that prevent people from entering or returning to Beijing is “in progress” and in effect in many places. The health app requires a negative PCR test to allow unrestricted mobility.”

    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-covid-cases-rise-record-daily-numbers-seen-beijing-other-cities-2022-11-13/

    OMG – lock down — it’s covid!!!

  13. Fast Eddy says:

    California Hospitals Treating Patients in Tents as the Number of Positive Flu Tests is Up 259 Percent from Last Year

    “The move comes amid a rise in flu symptoms in emergency room patients in San Diego County. The dominant strain, H3N2, appears to lead to more severe illnesses than usual.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11422081/California-hospitals-use-tents-treat-overflow-flu-cases-positive-tests-259-PERCENT.html

    This should provide impetus for More Boosters!

    Throwing petrol on the inferno hahahaha….

    VAIDS!

    I guess the flu vaccine doesn’t work either hahaha

  14. reante
    reante says:

    “reante

    I don’t pretend to understand every detail of virology, and its interaction with biological species in all their forms.

    Neither do i cut and paste segments from scientific journals, then post them as ‘learned questions’ on the subject. (which I, of course, do not have the depth of knowledge to reply to in detail)—with the suspicion that you don’t either. If you do—please accept my apologies.
    If you can’t, you are word-garbling”

    Norm

    Deciding whether or not a physically inert, non-metabolic entity (a ‘virus’) can plausibly DO anything according to your 87-year experience of this reality would be the FIRST detail of virology that you, as a highly intelligent man, would want to understand now isn’t it? Lol. Let’s not mealy-mouth this topic.

    Name another ontology referent in this Reality that is analogous to a ”virus.’ The fact is you can’t. I can’t either.

    Holistic/True biology’s application of mainstream research in the cutting-edge field of
    proteomics accurately explains the dynamic relationship between exosomes (‘viruses’) and disease while also being in perfect accordance with what we well know to be the difference in capabilities between non-living organic matter and live metabolic organisms, yet you consider that application to be baseless. And I suspect – because it’s implicit in what you wrote — that you find it baseless because I am absolute nobody, and you are the type of person who needs formal permission, who looks around for permission before you leap, because like you said, humans are herd animals. And while we are herd/pack animals, I’m not asking you to come homestead with me, Norm, I’m asking you to free your mind. We are herd animals in body, by necessity, but we are not herd animals in mind by necessity.

    I’m not the only person exploring this biological frontierland. I got the general idea from Zach Bush who is one of the few triple -board certified doctors in the US. Check out his ‘Virome’ presentation, either the short one or the long one. He refers to exosomes as viruses in order to be more accessible. In other words, he treats viruses as the exosomes that they are – and treats them as the vehicles that they are for the horizontal gene transfer of evolution itself. I watched his virome presentation and a couple other interviews of him in 2020, and I haven’t really gone back to see where he’s at now, though I know he’s trying to take his knowledge of holistic biology and spearhead a cultural movement into regerative agriculture. He’s a classic national socialist icon, IMO, definitely on the right side of political history. Beautiful man. All this that I’m exploring here is my own work, and it’s all open to falsification. That it’s open to falsification is my reward in the sharing of it. May the best ideas win; that’s the free marketplace of ideas at work. The only free market that’s ever existed.

    Apology accepted, BTW. Thanks for offering it, even if only conditionally.

    • Reante

      thank you for a fascinating link to Bush, who’s stuff i want to take time to digest, which i will do tomorrow, not at this late hour, and reply more fully then.

      the word ‘holistic’ jumped off the page and set off warning lights. I will see if they are justified. I don’t know yet. I will delve it his work and see what his meaning is with regard to holistic.

      Much of our current human condition has been brought upon ourselves by poisoning of our living environment, that undoubtedly affects different people in different ways.

      • reante
        reante says:

        Thanks Norm for your equanimity. 🙂 I hear you on “holistic.” There’s a lot of green washing out there. Capitalist cooptation. And Zach is in business to be sure. He makes a living off of his public work I imagine. His work itself, though, tries to account for the whole truth. He sees civilizational collapse and he sees health collapse, but he believes in the enduring power of healthy biology and he seeks to inspire young people to pursue it for it’s own sake. He’s gifted with the ability to speak moving monologues and likes to close interviews with them. Good guy who wears his heart on his sleeve.

    • JMS says:

      “Name another ontology referent in this Reality that is analogous to a ”virus.’”

      Zombies.They too are neither alive nor dead, but they still manage to kill billions and destroy a civilization. I saw them with my own eyes, in The Walking Dead, otherwise I wouldn’t believe it was possible either. The only difference is that viruses are quieter, and have no teeth.

      • reante
        reante says:

        Yeah great call. Zombies are the fictional ontological referent for viruses. The predatory undead. Viruses are the zombies of the apocalypse. 28dayslater and we might all be dead. Sword of dammerung hanging over our heads nevermind collapse.

      • reante
        reante says:

        Damocles lol

    • reante

      I’ve read into some of the Zach Bush stuff—most interesting guy, with some interesting ideas—thank you.

      But my first warning light starting flashing, (as I said) with the word ‘holistic’—sure enough, today I quickly got to the sales pitch:
      https://intelligenceofnature.com/products/gut-health-supplement?uid=7&oid=1&affid=30&variant=39683611656246
      ($72)

      That warning light rarely lets me down.
      It flashed and beeped itself off my desk when i got to the $3495 price tag….ouch.

      You recall a few days ago, about Fleming, and I said with all these characters—start digging.

      Forgive my sceptic nature–but Bush seems to want money to tell people they need to be made well. Most folks can figure it out for themselves.
      This is sounding very familiar?
      Kelloggs anyone?

      However–I will persevere with it.

      I have none of his medical background and training, as I made clear at the start of this thread. So there’s no point in me going into the minutiae of virology.

      But In numerous previous comments, and elsewhere over many years, I’ve touched on what I see as fundamental common sense, that humankind is the sum total of the organisms that live within us, and on us.
      It is their prime function to keep us alive to the age of reproduction. After that, we are allowed to freewheel to our demise.
      Our reproduction passes on their life force. Which is all they need from us. That is the point of their existence/evolution. And has been over millions of years.

      A phrase I’ve used many times: To them we are mines and prairies. I arrived at that concept years ago—i did it by freeing my mind.

      Of course our existence is surrounded by ‘dirt’ of all kinds. That’s what drives the cleaning products market. There is a body of opinion that we have become obsessed with ‘clean’, and in so doing helped our dirt to thrive.
      Our bodies have evolved as a protective envelope for the virome they contain—which means that all our pleasures and responses are for that single end.

      As Ive mentioned before, 60+ years ago my late wife put one thalidomide tablet in her mouth–the reaction was instantaneous–she spat it out. Her virome in protective mode.? Interesting thought.

      Our current bodies have evolved through 1 or 2 m years to arrive at ‘now’—then someone invents bleach and a thousand other ‘hygiene’ products we are told are critical to our survival. And of course they ‘worked’. Puerperal fever is no longer a threat. 1 in 5 kids no longer die before 5yrs, old age is ‘normal’ now.
      But maybe we are just ‘too clean?

      We are not the dominant life force, bugs are. contrary to the teachings of the jesusfreaks,
      I wrote this 3 years ago:
      https://end-of-more.medium.com/bugs-rule-ok-55d15d8ca66e

      *******

      Bush is offering nothing that cannot be figured out by anyone of reasonable intellect, to my mind he is creating a problem where there should be none.

      I charge nothing to relay common sense.

      Ive said many times that we’ve poisoned our living space, and we have nowhere else to live.
      Of course the result must be an increase in certain diseases—we are in the process of culling ourselves.
      We are also seeing the diseases of old age—we are living beyond our allotted span. I’m very very lucky in that respect. I don’t have any. Most of my contemporaries are dead, infirm or gaga.

      don’t know why I’m not. I eat thoughtlessly, drink hardly ever, smoke never. Never let myself get stressed. (I think that is critical btw) Won’t be long before something gets me though i suppose.

      we are, i think, certainly ‘mental’ herd animals.
      one cannot be herded without mental consent, the ‘physical’ follows that.

      • reante
        reante says:

        Thanks Norm for sharing.

        I disagree. Few folks can figure it out for themselves without help. Myself included. The way out is labyrinthine. This is the darkest of times. But it’s always darkest before the dawn.

        Zach is selling the highest-grade ‘compost tea feeders for humans,’ in his exceptionally sourced fulvic acids and bacterial metabolites. These are products for bourgeoise bohemians in paradise who are into the bourgeoise version of peak health (vanity) and ‘natural’ biohacking of their microbiome. It works AND it’s totally selfish. What else is new? His business is not what interests me about him. He interests me in spite of his hawking waste-based modern marvels.

        I noticed how Zach’s explication of the Virome, which is based in evolutionary biology, apparently held no interest for you, even though that was the reason for checking him out, remember? To see why it is that viruses aren’t submicroscopic terrorists without boxcutters.

        It’s like pulling teeth. 🙂

        • Fast Eddy says:

          There won’t be a dawn

        • interesting response reante–i enjoy our exchanges–i shall reply at length to that

          • reante
            reante says:

            I enjoy our exchanges too norm.

            BTW, you put the cart before the horse; the body is always the leading indicator and the mind is the trailing indicator. Our minds only think otherwise because as trailing indicators they are behind the curve. If we are getting reluctantly mentally herded into a working class 9-5 jobby job it is because our mind is heeding out body’s desire to not be homeless, in prison, or dead. If I’m a fourteen years old boy getting an untimely erection it is because my gung ho body is leading the way.

            We’ve all heard about the bioelectrical experiments that show that our body acts a split second before our conscious mind has decided to. In this decision-making context we might refer to the body as the subconscious, and in general contexts we would refer to the body as the unconscious.

            And, of course, the body evolved before the conscious mind ever evolved, which structurally makes the mind (which is technically known as metaconsciousness) an emergent biological property of the body. Emergent phenomena are always trailing functions though they be improvements. Evolution is the biological stacking of emergent, trailing functions. This is what the conversation I linked Cromagnon to was about. While he’s free to correct me if I’m wrong,bi believe Cromagnon has fallen into the classic New Age religious trap of thinking that mind has precedence over ‘matter’ (biology, holography), there is no mind without 4B years of matter, and the tail (the mind)is not wagging the dog (the body). People are ultimately herdable in civilization because our bodies know from patterning cause and effect that to resist results in a worse physical cost-benefit analysis than to not resist, and the mind also knowing that is merely a function of the body knowing it. That’s difficult to see because civilization is a mind Matrix, so the cost-benefit analysis seems all mind. But when we strip away the noise, the glitz and glamor, we’re just a subconscious ratbody in a maze and the food is behind bars for which we have to perform entrained tricks in order to eat, while that bastard Calhoun watches over us, and it’s all watched over by machines of loving grace.

            Emergencies — emergent phenomena — are also what Zach’s Virome presentation is about. Viruses (exosomes) are the first conscious biological structures (bodies) from which cells emerged as another conscious — but now with a metabolic complex –emergent phenomenon stacked on top of the non-metabolic viral complex of pure hyperreactive biochemical consciousness with intelligent patterning abilities when reacting with polymerase. If we see the true, pretty damn abstract nature of biological evolution as it exists according to pure Reason in this weird-ass holographic reality, we can see clearly that viruses are the beginning of that journey and they are the perpetual CONTINUATION of that journey until biology ceases to exist. Viruses (exosomes) are the engine of life yet the Matrix is drummig into our heads that they are the opposite in order to keep us as lost little lambies. Surprise surprise.

            Horizontal gene transfer — as effected by the Virome which is just the outer ecological/biospheric primordial soup fractal of our inner cellular-scale soups — IS the engine of the continuum we call evolution. It’s the original body as leading indicator of future Life. This is why Zach enthusiastically referred to SARS-CoV-2 as
            a major update for humanity, whose goal should always be to intelligently adapt to its changing ecology.

        • having read your response again, I’m not altogether sure what kind of reply you expect from me–that would fit with your views of Bush, and what he does.

          I try to sum things up in as few words as possible, to make them understandable to as many as possible.

          Hence:-

          ///////humankind is the sum total of the organisms that live within us, and on us.
          It is their prime function to keep us alive to the age of reproduction/////

          If that’s not a summation of ‘evolution’ I don’t know a better way of putting it—but your response was that I ‘have no interest in it’. All evolution, with minor difference according to species, functions in that way.

          If humankind is a dead end, and destined for evolutionary failure, then our virome experiment will take another form, in another living creature. This will happen in any event, at some time.
          As it has over the last 2bn years or so.

          (evolution again)

          Each of us is the evolved envelope by which the ‘virome’ performs its function–ie keeping us safe to the point of reproduction. Doesn’t always work, some of us die early.
          We imagine we have free will, but collectively i dont think that is so. We have wars—but the end result returns us to the status quo.
          All know that, but it has no effect on the drive to conflict.

          Bush makes reference to a ‘global virology’ (can’t recall the exact term he used) his meaning was that the planet itself (or so I took his meaning) was subject to viralogical functions in ways that are beyond our understanding. If the planet is an ‘aware’ viral entity, then it seems to follow that all higher life forms are somehow an expression of that ‘awareness’. And exist in that context.

          A couple of years ago, I suggested that the current virus wave was caused by ‘us’ over expoliting the energy resources of other animal species.

          Their defence mechanism was release of a virus that not only created sickness, but instilled a fear that slowed or shut down the commercial enterprise that was causing our problems in the first place.

          Suppose the planet itself has an ‘awareness’ on a level we cannot begin to comprehend.? Bush suggests that the planet itself is a ‘viral body’ of some kind, and we are bent to the will of that.

          Herding ourselves and other creatures into close confinement has been a recipe for disaster (Bush says that) I’ve made the same point many times, though without Bush’s backup of virology expertise (obviously).
          I said at the start, I don’t have the knowledge to go into the minutiae of it all, so i don’t.

          I just look for conclusions and ultimate logic. I do go into the abstract sometimes because some of the things happening around us cannot be pinned down by absolutes.
          .—freeing my mind that way.

          • reante
            reante says:

            What is the purpose of the field of virology if not for the absolutist pinning-down of exosomes (viruses) as enemies of the state (of nature)?

            If indeed you don’t “go into the abstract sometimes because some of the things happening around us cannot be pinned down by absolutes” then why do you believe in virology’s absolutist (and utterly wrong BTW) claim about an abstraction you personally feel (which is totally fine and you’re entitled to feeling because everybody’s tolerances are different) can’t be pinned-down?

            We’re on intellectual ground, right now, for your recusal. For you recusing yourself from having an official opinion either way on the question whether viruses cause disease or not.

            Given, however, your stated tolerances for what you perceive to be biological abstractions, there’s no longer any sense in me pushing you to see that viruses (exosomes) are in fact the root of biology rather than the death of biology. Not for the time being anyway.

            • i think my ”opinion either way” on the subject of viruses, was not that ‘they do not cause disease’—-at least that was not my intended meaning. Sometimes exact meaning is hard to put across on here.

              but that the wildly varying ‘intentions’ of those discussing it have led me keep my own thoughts on it to myself, take the vax on the consensus of opinion that it is safe to do so, and not be drawn into the utterly ludicrous conspiromania that seems to prevail in this forum.
              (some of which you have witnessed for yourself)

              There is no conspiracy to decimate humankind to preserve the planet for an elite.—yet that is the certainty I am expected to adhere to. Rubbish.

              A social group I belong to seems to have an excessive number of retired medics, the subject of covid never comes up in discussion. Just not important any more.

              I’m pretty sure that if there were ”millions of dead and maimed” as has been asserted, someone in my group would have at least mentioned it. Other people in my circle would have too. Or people in adjacent ‘social circles’.

              Nothing. The wave of it seems to be ebbing.

              As i said at the start of this, 2 years ago, (which is to do with me keeping my own counsel) there was to a great extent a knee jerk reaction. Nobody knew what to do for the best, so mistakes were made in many ways. They were scared of a repeat of 1921. (that was the basic fear)

              You are a relative newcomer, and may not have witnessed the childlike hysteria engendered by any ‘adverse opinion’ put forward in discussions. (towards me and others) Ridiculous–I avoided it mostly, other than for idle amusement sometimes.

              Bush is undoubtedly a clever man. But he is peddling ‘get well’ schemes for people who, on the face of it would likely stay well in any event.

            • reante
              reante says:

              Thanks Norm.

              So, then — and correct me if I’m wrong — your official position on whether or not viruses are pathogenic (disease causing) is to ‘plead the fifth’ – to keep that opinion to yourself. For personal reasons. The right to privacy.

              Since opinions are like assholes and everyone’s got one I just make like the Japanese and shit out my opinions with door wide open. You need to brush your teeth? That’s cool come on in. This open book’ll put some stank on that too. Guess that’s one of the differences between crass Yanks with verbal diarrhea and stuffy old Brits. 🙂

            • lol–and this reply is a generalisation–nothing to do with you, just happens to be on your thread.

              i’m open about most things reante, and will exchange opinions with most people of similar coherence,—some knowing a lot more than me, some not—one learns from all kinds of people, if the willingness is there.
              Even at my pool, I spend half the time yakking on these themes with my swimming buddy. it never gets ‘silly’–just mutually stimulating. We try to stay out of the shallow end.

              but faced with ridiculosity and conspiralism, feeding it smacks of social irresponsibility.—that defines the situation more precisely i think.

              so i don’t. i prefer to play wordball with equal partners.—not moonlinatics and wtc deniers.

              as to se xual innuendo, I’ve always preferred the real thing.

              however, i recognise certain insecurities, and feel only pity.

  15. Fast Eddy says:

    Further investigation into the nature of COVID and how fatal it is on its own.
    Comparative analysis of Colorado and neighbouring Kansas in terms of all-cause mortality.

    https://metatron.substack.com/p/further-investigation-into-the-nature

    What does norm think

    ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,zzzz….. buzzz… beep……. SSS…. zzzz….. hummmm… buzzzz… beeep…. clunk

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Colorado has significantly higher upticks in mortality than neighboring Kansas, despite (or because of) higher vaccination and higher average income.

  16. reante
    reante says:

    I appreciate the recent posts regarding ‘antibody’ activity in vaxxxed folks Thank you. . Im wondering if I may be hitting upon what’s really going on from the Terrain perspective just as the guy Vern just linked to feels like he may be hitting upon what’s going on from the ‘immune’ perspective.

    Previously the narrative has been that these vaxxxes are causing autoimmunity (and therefore poor overall immune function (VAIDS) by forcing the body to make a particularly gnarly toxin that it then has to try and clear. And, if we agree with Sucharit Bhakdi, blood vessel walls are getting trashed by this autoimmune dynamic and these insane fibrin/fibrous white clots are developing.

    But in light of these articles on ‘antibody’ profiles, I’m coming full circle, and back to simple. Following the KISS principle. I’m wondering if this whole Spike Narrative is the ‘grassy knoll’ misdirection play to keep control of the opposition such that the simple truth about what’s happening to the terrain of the vaxxxed is hidden. The Spike Narrative is the gene therapy/GMO narrative. And we just have to take their word that the mRNA that they have built is Spike related. What if it’s not? What if it’s just the most representative ‘cold’ exosomal primer that they can come up with? What if the boosters might be the second most representative ‘cold’ primer? What if they these gene therapies are just using the same strategy of symptoms suppression that the regular vaccines have always used? That being training the body to not make the class of exosomes (as represented by the attenuated ‘virus’) by saturating the delivery of the exosomes with poisons (the adjuvants), thereby forcing the body to associate any future production of those healing exosomes as an act of self-harm, which results in future suppression of that disease/healing/symptomology pathway.

    We know that they’ve never been able to safely suppress colds before by vaccinating against them because those vaccinations end up killing most of the animals in the trials. And nobody really knows why, right? We just now that there’s no ‘cure’ for the common cold. Yet the fact that the animal trials for cold vaccines kill most of the participants IS OBVIOUSLY the evidence that the cold vaccines were working because there’s nothing fundamentally different or more dangerous about the physical makeup of the cold vaccines than any other vaccines, right? So their lethality must be directly linked to their efficacy at blocking colds, which then brings into full relief the consequences of blocking colds.

    I’ve said before that colds (and flus) are our major secondary/seasonal detoxes, for when our primary detoxes –our overnight daily detoxes — cumulatively aren’t cutting the mustard. What I haven’t said before is that colds are for detoxing overaccumulated water-soluble toxins (WST) and flus are for detoxing overaccumulated fat-soluble toxins (FST). (Understanding the division between WST and FST is fundamental to holistic health.) Flu shots don’t kill us while they suppress seasonal FST detoxes because FST can be stored in adipose fat tissue for non-reactive preservation, though eventually that can lead to cancer. We know that ‘flus’ are detoxing FST because flus are accompanied by fever, and the intelligent body uses fever (high temperature) in order to loosen the adipose cells such that the FST stored inside them are released for processing into the WST (by ‘antibodies’ and white blood cells and, crucially, also by our anaerobic microbiome which converts FST to WS esters). Then the processed FST, now as WST, can be run through the filter system for excretion, which is the inflammatory ‘cold’ function that is nested within the ‘flu’ detox. A flu is symptomatically worse than a cold because humans are water-based organisms and this FST are more difficult to detoxify from.

    BUT, FST can be stored! And WST CANNOT!

    I stress those two points because toxins are potentially deadly if we’re not either filtering them out (WST) or storing them (FST).

    You see where we’re going with this…

    A successful cold vaccine (which is no small feat) is highly deadly because it suppresses/inhibits the exosomal signaling function for secondary/seasonal WST detoxes. And if you can’t have a proper, effective ‘cold’ then you can’t have an effective ‘flu’ either, right? And if you’re overnight detoxes are cutting the mustard and you can no longer rely on your backup, secondary detox, that’s gonna catch up with you pretty quickly, and the timeframe for that in each person is going be as unique to them obviously.

    Vaxxxed people can find reassurance in the fact that people who take full responsibility for their health don’t get formal colds or flus because their personal discipline WRT their health renders their overnight detoxes, which are flexible in scope and can buffer high daily and weekly toxin loads from running the chainsaw too much or whatever, it renders their overnight detoxes adequate. I haven’t had a cold in eight years since I started living right. And I’ve sucked in a helluva lot of two-stroke engine fumes. I get periodic headaches which is my overnight detox running on into the daytime.

    The two ‘antibodies’ that these analyses are showing aren’t being produced are the ‘cold antibodies,’ the inflammatory ‘antibodies’ associated with WST. They aren’t being produced because they aren’t being signaled for because of the exosomal suppression. Thus the “symptomless cold” that the author speaks of. I put
    ‘antibodies’ in quotes because it is a term of immunology and we don’t actually have immune systems because germs don’t exist so there’s nothing from which to be immune. Anything that the body doesn’t want inside it is simply a toxin, a foreign body, be it some undigested food that has entered into the blood because we have a leaky gut or whether it be a synthetic chemical. In truth what we have is the same as what the outside ecology has – a combined bioremediation and filtering complex. In truth, ‘antibodies’ ARE effectively anti-foreign bodies but technically they are just transport proteins (taxis for toxins, to take them to the filter organs) and catalytic enzymes, depending on which kind of antibodies we’re talking about.

    If they have succeeded more or less in suppressing colds then we have an alternative and better IMO explanation for the massive, ungodly clots. This explanation overlaps
    with Bhakdi’s but goes beyond it. WST are building up in the blood but the inflammatory cold-related transport proteins are being suppressed. And if FST are in need of flushing with a feverish ‘flu’ then some of these FST and partially processed FST ( some are fully processed by anaerobes in the interstitial fluids between the adipose cells and the capillaries) are also building up in the blood, and probably especially so if the person is getting flu vaccines too… While Bhakdi maintains that the damage to the blood vessel walls is due to the Spikes and the ‘immune’ response to the Spikes, my feeling now is that the damage is due to the concentration of toxins. High concentrations of toxins kill cells. So the beautiful, amazing, loving intelligent body is faced with a horrific and completely unnatural circumstances, and realizes that it must sequester toxins IN THE BLOOD, which is a circulation system – it is the opposite of a storage site.

    This toxic buildup in the blood explains the high white blood cell, high-platelet, high-fibrin molecular composition of the clots. The WBCs engulf toxins, the platelets are high in fat and will absorb fat-soluble toxins and are obviously also clotting factors (sticky) in and of themselves, and the fibrin is the building block for the tumor formation. These are essentially blood tumors. Tumors are fibrin structures. Fibrin depositions. Tumors are landfills for WST when adipose storage is insufficient or not functioning properly. Take another look at these clots. Look at the bloody ends. They are toxic blood-fed tumors. All tumors are fed by blood aren’t they?

    We need to see the toxicology reports on these blood tumors. If they’re sky-high then I’m right. If they’re not then I’m wrong.

    • reante
      reante says:

      If your overnight detoxes AREN’T cutting the mustard

    • reante
      reante says:

      Sorry, tumors are landfills for FST…

    • ivanislav says:

      “We know that they’ve never been able to safely suppress colds before by vaccinating against them because those vaccinations end up killing most of the animals in the trials.”

      I’ve seen that asserted a bunch of times. Please back that up with links to the studies. I read the RSV trial study from back in the 50’s or 60’s, which worsened outcomes, but haven’t seen anyone post the coronavirus animal studies that you’re talking about.

      • reante
        reante says:

        I’ve seen it asserted a bunch of times too.

        Let’s think it through. If they could safely vaccinate against coronaviruses do you think that they would have? It’s just a virus like every other one, right? Obviously it has nothing to do with the fact that coronaviruses ‘mutate’ easily (which is analogous in terrain theory to the cold, as a secondary detox of WST, being a THE broad, foundational pathway to basic biochemical healing) because they’re happily vaccinating for highly mutating flus with limited success.

        In the meantime maybe you or someone else can verify, or not, cold vaccine animal trials results. If it turns out they don’t exist then to me that would be a clear indication that they do not want the results known, wouldn’t it? Because obviously the trials have been done. WRT relatively primitive ‘RSV’ trials of the 50s and 60s — which is before they discovered the polymerase chain reactions and started farming them –, I’d be interested to know what exactly those worse outcomes were.

        • ivanislav says:

          The onus is on you and anyone else making the claim to find the studies, not me.

          • reante
            reante says:

            My argument doesn’t hinge on the matter. I laid groundwork with it but it doesn’t hinge on it. If you are implying that it does then you are strawmanning, but I’m giving you the benefit of the doubt that you are not strawmanning because I appreciate your comments and they’ve given me no indication of low character. My first reply to you already went some way to explaining why the possibly apocryphal (?) cold vaccination animal experiments aren’t fundamental to my biological analysis. They are circumstantial.

            Besides, turnabout is fair play: I don’t see you ponying up the RSV trials you mentioned and I expressed interest in.

            • ivanislav says:

              RSV study (abstract only):
              https://academic.oup.com/aje/article-abstract/89/4/422/198849

              RSV study (pdf download):
              https://sci-hub.se/10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a120955

              That you can’t or won’t find the coronavirus studies shows either 1) you don’t care to look them up or 2) the studies don’t exist. I agree that coronavirus vaccine studies have been done, which means that if they’re not published, they went poorly. However, that could mean they were just ineffective. So I still think if they really resulted in death, that’s noteworthy and needs to be backed up.

            • reante
              reante says:

              ivanislav

              I looked around this evening on Google and DDG and couldn’t find corroboration for my claim, so thanks for catching it. The fact check pages said the claim was a fabrication based on a 2012 SARS mouse trial who all fared poorly and then we’re killed on day 56 in order to look at their lungs, so it was a short term trial.

              Thanks for the RSV infant child study using poor blacks. Awful results there, too. Out of 23 subjects, 80pc hospitalizations, a couple deaths. Serious dysregulation of the detox function.

            • @reante do you have any Terrain-informed detox regimens to help the long-suffering punters who took the vax?

            • reante
              reante says:

              Jakob

              If you’re asking for yourself then I’d suggest you set off on a healing journey. If you’re asking for a simple recommendation for someone else I’d suggest a prolonged water fast. Two weeks minumim but 25 days or more is optimal is my understanding. I’ve never fasted myself but I don’t doubt the healing powers of a prolonged water fast in bed, or on the couch.

              I healed my family’s hypothyroidism pathway by loosely following the GAPS diet for about four years. I raise my own organic grass fed livestock and my wife grows lots of salad greens and non-starchy root veg. We have a small orchard.I ate as much easy to digest stews and drank as much bone broth as I wanted. Having a surfeit of nutrients flowing through me enabled my body to clean out decades of gunk and then focus on repairing my endocrine system. Natasha Campbell-Mcbride explains to us that raw plants and fruits are for cleaning us and healthy animal foods are for feeding us, and that’s what I actively subscribe to. But there’s a hardcore terrain culture out there that subscribes to a modified bonobo diet that includes raw meat and eggs along with juicy fruits and greens. Sally Fallon, Tom Cowan’s partner at the Weston Price Foundation, has always recommended eating half raw foods, including meat. So I eat raw meat and enjoy it much more than cooked meat.

              FWIW if I had vaxxxed myself I would get the d-dimer and troponin tests, have imaging work done to search for clots/tumors, look into whether those could be surgically removed without too much risk, and then probably load up on bone broth for a month, and then commence with fasting. The hardcore fasting community skews towards a raw veganism similar to the bonobo diet. As a former high level athlete I have a hard time imagining doing that, but then again I trashed my health in my 20s with a standard American, but organic, cooked grain and legume based vegan diet which kicked off my hypothyroidism. The traditional raw veganism is not that, and it does line up with what Natasha says about plants being cleaning foods.

              So I might also consider a transitional traditional raw vegan phase after the bone broth nutrient loading phase, and before the three week water fast on bed rest. Water fast completely change our body’s focus, towards cleaning and then healing. Even wiry people like myself do not need to be concerned with starvation. Water fast have their origins in folk medicine, which learned the practice from closely observing animal behavior.

              YouTube has lots of content on prolonged water fasting.

              This modified bonobo diet dude in the link is in better shape than I am right now, older than me too, and he’s a pleasure to listen to even though I have a slightly different take on things. His condition though shows that the proof of his dietary success is in the pudding.There’s a wild world outside of normieland. Because the use of fire to make bone broth has multiplying
              effects on the micronutrient density of our diets, I have some disagreement with the raw folks, but I listen to everything that they have to say, even the traditional raw vegan folks who are the masters of the prolonged water fast.

            • reante
              reante says:

              Here’s the link to John Rose

              https://youtu.be/O7j8TpBWJA0

        • Replenish says:

          Links from Jean-Pascal Remon:

          “The Unknown Unknown: Humanity in the Crosshairs of “Vaccine” Generated Antibody-Dependent Enhancement
          https://ghionjournal.com/humanity-crosshairs-vaccine-generated-antibody-dependent-enhancement

          Informed consent disclosure to vaccine trial subjects of risk of COVID-19 vaccines worsening clinical disease “[COVID-19 vaccines] may worsen COVID-19 disease via antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE). This risk is sufficiently obscured in clinical trial protocols…” https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33113270/

          Informed consent disclosure to vaccine trial subjects of risk of COVID-19 vaccines worsening clinical disease “[COVID-19 vaccines] may worsen COVID-19 disease via antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE). This risk is sufficiently obscured in clinical trial protocols…” https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33113270/

          Decades’ Worth of Research Has Shown Us That ALL Attempts At Making Coronavirus Vaccines Result In Antibody Dependent Enhancement And/Or Liver Damage And/Or Prion Disease. Vaccines

          Here’s a compilation of some of the current peer-reviewed literature on the DANGERS of coronavirus vaccinations based on previous attempts on RSV, MERS-CoV and SARS-1-CoV.

          A perspective on potential antibody-dependent enhancement of SARS-CoV-2 | Nature https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2538-8

          Antibody-dependent enhancement of coronavirus – PubMed
          https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32920233/

          Evaluation of modified vaccinia virus Ankara based recombinant SARS vaccine in ferrets – PubMedhttps://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15755610/

          SARS vaccine linked to liver damage in ferret study | CIDRAP https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2004/12/sars-vaccine-linked-liver-damage-ferret-study

          Immunization with Modified Vaccinia Virus Ankara-Based Recombinant Vaccine against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Is Associated with Enhanced Hepatitis in Ferrets | Journal of Virology https://jvi.asm.org/content/78/22/12672.abstract

          Humoral immune responses in rabbits induced by an experimental inactivated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus vaccine prepared from F69 strain – PubMed https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15569476/

          Comparative evaluation of two severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) vaccine candidates in mice challenged with SARS coronavirus – PubMed https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16476986/

          COVID-19 RNA Based Vaccines and the Risk of Prion Disease (not ADE) https://scivisionpub.com/pdfs/covid19-rna-based-vaccines-and-the-risk-of-prion-disease-1503.pdf

          Antibody-dependent enhancement and SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and therapies | Nature Microbiology
          https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-00789-5

          Immunization with SARS Coronavirus Vaccines Leads to Pulmonary Immunopathology on Challenge with the SARS Virus
          https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0035421

          Don’t rush to deploy COVID-19 vaccines and drugs without sufficient safety guarantees (nature.com) (OPINION)
          https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00751-9

          PLOS ONE: Immunization with SARS Coronavirus Vaccines Leads to Pulmonary Immunopathology on Challenge with the SARS Virus https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/figure?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0035421.g003

          Pathogenic priming likely contributes to serious and critical illness and mortality in COVID-19 via autoimmunity – ScienceDirect
          https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589909020300186

          The SARS-CoV ferret model in an infection-challenge study – PubMed https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18234270/

          Immune Responses and Disease Enhancement during Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection | Clinical Microbiology Reviews (RSV is not a coronavirus, but its structure is extremely similar and the vaccine attempts have yielded similar results.)
          https://cmr.asm.org/content/18/3/541

          Brief History and Characterization of Enhanced Respiratory Syncytial Virus Disease (RSV is not a coronavirus, but its structure is extremely similar and the vaccine attempts have yielded similar results.) https://cvi.asm.org/content/cdli/23/3/189.full.pdf

          RSV, Measles, and Dengue vaccines all caused ADE at some point.
          https://www.chop.edu/centers-programs/vaccine-education-center/vaccine-safety/antibody-dependent-enhancement-and-vaccines

          At the Intersection Between SARS-CoV-2, Macrophages and the Adaptive Immune Response: A Key Role for Antibody-Dependent Pathogenesis But Not Enhancement of Infection in COVID-19 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.22.432407v1

          Antibody-Dependent Enhancement and the Coronavirus Vaccines
          https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/02/12/antibody-dependent-enhancement-and-the-coronavirus-vaccines

          Immunization with SARS coronavirus vaccines leads to pulmonary immunopathology on challenge with the SARS virus
          https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22536382/

          • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
            Gail Tverberg says:

            This is a disturbing list.

          • sciouscience says:

            Backing it up here, boss!
            – CoolHandLuke, 1967

            We’re gonna need a bigger boat.
            – Jaws, 1975

            Master?
            Because someone erased it
            from the
            archive memory.
            – StarWars ii AOTC, 2002

          • reante
            reante says:

            Thanks Replenish!

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This is a fairly different theory than anything I have run across before.

      People who eat lots of fruits and vegetables (and less food that is not good for you) tend to get fewer tumors to begin with. They tend to be lower in weight. They are less likely to die from Covid, itself. They might not have as much problem from the adverse impacts of the vaccines, a person might hope. But we have seen an awfully lot of young people die.

    • Tim Groves says:

      This is certainly some fascinating speculation, reante. Although I have no idea of how on the ball it is, or even how to determine its validity, as I am by no means an expert in medical matters, viruses or exosomes.

      You make a good point that we don’t know what is in the jab juice and we can’t trust the producers to be honest with us on this.

  17. Nationwide Problem: Serious Lung Infections Caused by Soil Fungi
    Washington University School of Medicine
    The fungus Histoplasma, which causes lung infections, was concentrated in the Midwest in the 1950s and 60s (top map), but now causes significant disease throughout much of the country (bottom). Researchers at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis discovered that the three main kinds of soil fungi that cause lung infections have all expanded their ranges in recent decades. Reliance on outdated maps could be causing delayed or missed diagnoses. Credit: Patrick Mazi and Andrej Spec/Washington University
    Outdated maps of disease-causing fungi may lead to delayed and missed diagnoses.
    Fungi in the soil cause a significant number of serious lung infections in 48 out of 50 states and the District of Columbia, including many areas long thought to be free of deadly environmental fungi. This is according to a recent study by researchers at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis.
    Fungal infections are much more common than people realize, and they’re spreading.” — Andrej Spec, MD
    People develop fungal lung infections after breathing in spores from fungi in the soil. The spores become airborne when the ground is disturbed by farming, landscaping, construction, or even just by people walking around in fungi-rich environments such as caves. Most healthy adults and children can fight off a fungal infection handily, but infants, older adults, and people with compromised immune systems may develop fever, cough, fatigue, and other symptoms. Fungal lung infections easily can be mistaken for bacterial or viral lung infections such as COVID-19, bacterial pneumonia and tuberculosis.

    https://scitechdaily.com/nationwide-problem-serious-lung-infections-caused-by-soil-fungi/amp/

    Fungal infections are much more common than people realize, and they’re spreading,” Spec said. “The scientific community has underinvested in studying and developing treatments for fungal infections. I think that’s beginning to change, but slowly. It’s important for the medical community to realize these fungi are essentially everywhere these days and that we need to take them seriously and include them in considering diagnoses.”
    Just another infection we re going to need a vaccination for….

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Another way for the health care industry to make money.

    • like i’ve been saying for a long time

      humankind rips the earth apart, and the earth fights back

      • Norman,
        Years ago a coworker of mine went to Costa Rica on vacation.
        While there she visited a tourist attraction that was an underground cave with bats. The batty dung with the soil she unfortunately breathed in causing a severe fungi infection lodging in her lungs! She almost died and was given heavy antibiotics treatment.
        Jane later saw an X Ray and the Doctors told her the black area seen was the “dormant” infection and she was to be given treatment for the rest of her life to keep it that way.
        As they say
        Nature Bats Last!

        • Withnail says:

          It caused problems in World War I as well I believe with everyone being in trenches. Bacteria, viruses and fungi from the disturbed soil getting into wounds.

        • reante
          reante says:

          There’s a lung condition colloquially called farmer’s lung. I mucked out one of the barns in summer the other year and got it. Anaerobic mold and fungi and manure dust in my lungs. Took about 7 months to clear up. Guarantee you that what I got in my lungs was much worse than what that lady got in her lungs walking around in a cave as a tourist. If that wasn’t the case then there would be no tourists allowed in that cave.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      We need a vaccine to keep our shadows from scaring us

    • MM says:

      From what I read here it seems I might die,
      Thank you for this information.

  18. Climate activists are deflating the tires of SUVs in US cities to make them “mpossible” to own.
    Tyre Extinguishers deflated almost 900 SUVs this week and hit 52 in Brooklyn, NY.
    The group has previously hit Pittsburgh and San Francisco as well as many European cities.
    Green campaigners are deflating tires on SUVs as part of their campaign to make it “impossible to own a huge polluting 4×4” in an urban area.
    Climate activist group Tyre Extinguishers said in a statement that it had deflated nearly 900 SUVs across the world, hitting 4x4s in cities including New York and Amsterdam.
    Its members deflated tires on almost 900 polluting SUVs in eight countries on November 28 and 29, according to the statement. “This is the biggest coordinated global action against high-carbon vehicles in history, with many more to come.”
    The group said it deflated tires on 52 SUVs in the Dumbo and Brooklyn Heights area of New York City this week. It has claimed responsibility for hitting 4x4s in Pittsburgh and San Francisco in the past.
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/tires-hundreds-suvs-deflated-climate-111832057.html

    Wow, this is a blast from the past, EARTH FIRST! Monkey wrenching from Ed Abbeys book and Dave Foreman’s movement of the same name…
    Maybe these idealistic young activists should go to Industrial farms owned by Bill Gates and do the same to his mega machinery!
    That would be more effective…we can stop growing food for all those polluting city folks and starve them too!

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I expect that income disparity plays a role in this, as well.

      If all of these protesters had high-paying jobs and could afford an SUV, there would be no tire deflating.

      • Adam says:

        Framing is oh so important. . . .

      • peoplepodcast123
        keith says:

        They can never have these things now that growth is dead.
        Instead, they must be taught to hate those very things.
        Most of all, they must hate oil because it’s leaving us quickly now.

        • about sums things up neatly

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Good point!

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Same people who run Geeta Loonberg (the Mentally Ill Troll) — are running this

    • Withnail says:

      Maybe these idealistic young activists should go to Industrial farms owned by Bill Gates and do the same to his mega machinery!

      Bill Gates doesn’t own industrial farms as far as I know. I believe he wants to re-wild the land he purchased.

      • Sure he does! What use is farmland after the culling off of riff raff that are useless eaters…
        https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/georgia-fourth-generation-farmer-rips-bill-gates-largest-farmland-owner-hell-yeah-concerns

        White Oak Pastures owner Will Harris raised concern over Gates’ climate change investments in plant protein, secretive land purchases
        Harris, the owner of White Oak Pastures, a six-generation 152-year-old family farm in Bluffton, Georgia, shared his concerns in a recent post to the farm’s Facebook page.
        “Hell yeah I have concerns about Gates controlling farmland. Just like I don’t want a child abuser controlling even one child, I don’t want him to control a single acre,” Harris wrote.

        “First, land is precious,” the post says. “It may be more precious than anything. I hate to see someone, who has no idea what to do with it, be put in a position to control it. How well do you think that I would do running a tech company or financial institution? It’s the same logic as letting a guy like Gates manage something as complex as an ecosystem. He lacks the understanding to steward it properly.”
        ask the farmers of India and Africa how beneficial Gates’ influence was to their agricultural systems,” he said. “If you research the failed AGRA (Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa) program you’ll get a sneak peak [sic] on the repercussions of letting a businessman make farming decisions. That billionaire-leopard ain’t gonna change the spots that made him the most powerful man in the world.”

        Sue, Bill ONLY has good intentions…like backing vccines

        Farmland prices are up sharply. How did it get so expensive?
        There’s also lots of competition from investors, people like Bill Gates, America’s biggest private owner of farmland. Iowa State University economist Wendong Zhang says investors see farmland as a way to diversify their portfolio, and there’s more momentum from investors than in years past. NPR

      • Replenish says:

        Gate’s is promoting the Carbon Credit scheme related to the Inflation Reduction Act and REDD+ allocations. It’s the promise of Financial payments or tax credits like Going Green and CREP for landowners and farmers.

        “Wrench in the Gears” provides screenshots and links to the plan.. Nature as new “asset class” and digital transformation introducing wearables for children’s remote learning, digital wallets/CBCD’s and access/mobility passports for a common health pass, social credit and electronic carceral systems.

        https://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverstein/2022/09/01/bill-gates-voice-reverberates-further-than-the-inflation-reduction-act-for-saving-forests/?sh=3394ccca7890

        https://wrenchinthegears.com/2020/10/13/technocrats-great-barrington-and-bermuda-grass-why-settle-for-reform-when-a-radical-solution-is-needed/?

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          We can bet that Bill Gates will benefit from the Carbon Credit scheme if he is pushing it.

    • sciouscience says:

      I wonder what list I will get on if I start a biz slapping some road tires on air compressor on a trailer behind my bike and using the power from the wounded SUVs idling away to inflate those tires.

      Using two floor jacks I could pull this off. Probably one does the trick but I’ll bring two for a balanced load. I would bring a cheetah as well in case any lost tires their beads
      .
      Ten-fifty bucks per tire pending SUV driver mood on arrival. Cash or trade. Stock tips, legal service, protection, papers, rolexes, pharmies, ‘scripts, weapons or defense items.

      I bet if I accepted CBDC that I could get a green biz grant and hire some of the deflators to both deflate more tires or sub contract that out and turn to the inflating side. Money. Kow? You up?

  19. Jef Jelten
    Jef Jelten says:

    So vern – in your scenario only 1 billion will be miserable vs 7 billion now?

  20. Student says:

    (Marittime Executive)

    Germany signs a multi-year contract with Qatar for the supply of liquid gas, all through an American intermediary (ConocoPhillips).
    However, the gas supply represents only 3 percent of German needs, while Russia’s share of gas imports was 50 percent.
    Thus the road to recover the remaining 47% is very long….

    https://maritime-executive.com/article/germany-finalizes-a-long-term-lng-supply-deal-with-qatar

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I notice this in the article:

      Last week, QatarEnergy signed a 27-year deal with China’s Sinopec for LNG supply. With the growth in LNG demand, Qatar is aiming to increase production at the North Field East and North Field South projects, raising it from the current 77 million tons to 126 million tons by 2027.

      If China is willing to sign a 27-year deal, Germany and European countries need to get ready to sign deals at high prices, as well.

      Qatar is fairly close to Europe, keeping transport costs from being astronomically high, but still high, with all of the infrastructure needed.

      Sending LNG from Qatar to China is likely to be very expensive. Presumably this has been priced into the contract. Shipping costs of LNG from the US to Europe would also be quite high.

  21. kulmthestatusquo
    kulmthestatusquo says:

    Real estate prices will NEVER fall in dollar terms.

    Real estate takes a 2/3 share of the global wealth,

    https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/the-rise-and-rise-of-the-global-balance-sheet-how-productively-are-we-using-our-wealth

    and if it is allowed to fall, the whole system dies.

    The real estate prices in desirable areas, like Seattle, the Bay Area and Boston will NEVER FALL. NEVER. it is going to rise forever, and the monthly rent in the Bay Area will hit $100,000/month for a family house within this decade Ambitious young people will live in pods, $10,000/month.

    Dennis will love it since he likes to see younger people suffer for an uncertain reward. He seems to believe that alumni of famous tech companies have their own mythic networks , while in reality those who leave these companies are unfollowed in the social media within a nanosecond of their departures.

    The cold truth is the bottom 50% of the world’s pop own less than 1% of the world’s wealth, and the top 10% of the world’s pop own around 90% of the world Which is why I continue to say that the stakeholders are the only people in the world which do matter, since only they will own the means for survival and nothing for the rest.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      How will teachers and garbage collectors be able to find places to live in these high cost areas? Even if they are “only renting,” someone has to own the building, and the owner wants a reasonable return on his investment. Prices can’t keep going up, unless hyperinflation of the system as a whole is a problem.

      • we are headed back to the ‘Rookery’ standards of living ov Victorian times

        https://www.victorianlondon.org/publications5/rookeries-02.htm

      • banned says:

        The funny thing is both Kulm and Gail are correct. Money continually devalues against real goods. Perhaps even catastrophically.

        Wages are higher where real estate is higher but not high enough to pay for housing. People providing needed services usually commute from places where housing is more affordable. We witness things like the CA shanty towns. Some of those people are working and saving. They are there to harvest the high CA wages.

        The price of houses has risen so high that credit must exist for their purchase. The median price in many urban areas approaches a million dollars. The house becomes life savings as the portion of income needed to pay the mortgage is a very large portion of earnings. Interest rates double house value almost halfs. This has yet to play out there has not been market discovery yet both buyers and sellers are holding.

        Sellers cant believe their property value has fallen by 40% in 6 months. Tax implications of income for counties is significant. Buyers in many case were hesitant before. Now at 7% they get half the house for the same payment they would have got at 3%. For many buyers the rate increase means there just are not any houses that are affordable for their income with the rate increase. No buyer that has been looking but didnt jump at 3% is going to jump at 7%. In the meantime in the USA single family structures building starts drop to zero. Rental unit starts explode. There are serious bets being made we are a renter nation from here on out. The buyers agree. Renting leaves options open for relocation if a better job or more desirable living location appears. Buyers have largely left the market. Sellers wont sell at 40% less than what the market brought a year ago. Anyone with a 3% mortgage is blessed and cursed. They own a house and can pay the mortgage but its worth a lot less than what they payed if they bought in the last couple years. They hold too they will never own again if they sell.

        We have the same situation as 2008. There is no price discovery. The solution was extend and pretend. No one believes extend and pretend is over but everyone understands that continuing extend and pretend is part of the acceleration of fiat reaching its true value. Zero. The uncertainty of 2008 was soley financial. We have covid, injections and war now. The ether of consciousness swirls. Behind the mist somthing looms. The physical world. Both Gail and Kulm are right but Gail nails it.

        “Prices can’t keep going up, unless hyperinflation of the system as a whole is a problem.”

        When all you have is a hammer(interest rates) the whole world is a nail. Hyperinflation is demonstrating a serious possibility of bringing ther whole house of cards down. What worked in 2008 wont work now. Equity holders experience pain. Poof its gone.

        Anyone want Jeromes job? I sense a retirement coming.

        • Withnail says:

          The funny thing is both Kulm and Gail are correct. Money continually devalues against real goods. Perhaps even catastrophically.

          That’s correct. Last month we discussed the find of 58,000 Roman coins from the late 3rd century weighig more than 3/4 of a metric ton.

          The coins were abandoned when their owner also abandoned their villa complex.

          • ‘stuff’ represents embodied energy

            money only represents a ‘token’ by which to obtain that ‘stuff’

            if there’s less and less ‘stuff’ available to get hold of, the more and more money has to be expended to get hold of it.
            this can only go on while people believe that money has any value at all.

            eventually money value diminishes to zero, that is when money gets abandoned in favour of possession of goods.

            as to the Roman situation, i dont think we can equate of present situation with that because we don’t know the exact conditions then

            • Withnail says:

              we do know the conditions if you read original sources and check records such as the Greenland ice cores.

              Farmland and forests were exhausted, as a result farms were abandoned on a large scale and the cities along with them.

              The civilisation collapsed due to an energy crisis.

            • sorry–i meant the exact conditions relative to that money situation, rather than the broad sweep of cause and effect–for instance it could have been a doomie prepper–just like us, hoarding cash years ahead of whatever event caused that home to be evacuated.

        • ivanislav says:

          Extend and pretend. Student loan moratoriums are going on 3 years with the new 6-month extension. Why work?

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          I think that your analysis is right, at least for the parts of the world where continually increased money supply is possible.

          But how about the rest of the world? Can Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Lebanon, and the EU all be saved by money printing? Part of the loss of demand comes from defaulting debt. It seems like some countries and parts of the world get “priced out” of competition. Their currency falls too low relative to the dollar.

          • banned says:

            Ultimately I dont believe anybody is saved by money printing. Fiat is just as destructive to the country printing it as the countries using it. THe curse of the reserve currency. As the currency is in demand it has high value which makes domestic products unable to compete. Productivity and manufacturing leave leaving the country dependent on its reserve currency status to survive.

            THis wouldnt really be a problem if a country realized the benefit of having its currency used to settle debts and considered those using it valued customers doing it best to respect their needs as customers. This would require keeping its debts reasonable so that its customers realized that fidelity of the currency theu were using for trade was sound. The Swiss franc while not a reserve currency used to have fidelity. What happened? The reserve currency curse. The Franc grew so valued in 2009 2010 as it looked like greece would default that all swiss products were so expensive that no one wanted them. The swiss central bank intervened by trashing their currency destroying its fidelity with a euro peg in order to save the manufacturing and productivity of their country.

            The USA finds itself in a difficult position but i dont think its untenable. I think its possible for the USA to return to productivity. It would require standard of living adjustments. The biggest problem is the USA government that seems to believe it is entitled to create unlimited debt. This locks the USA into the reserve currency curse and dependency on imports. What is no longer tenable is trying to keep reserve currency status when customers of the currency were not respected and fidelity has been abused. We blew it. Were bankrupt but insist its all cool. What is untenable is a continued assertion that we are exceptional as a right not by productivity and mutually beneficial relationships with other countries.

            Thus in my opinion the USA needs a alternative just as bad as Sri lanka or Pakistan. As bad as those countries debts are the USAs are worse. Much Much worse. The increasing unstability of the price of basic needs reflects that. Uncertainty is fear. Its a shitty way to live.

            So we have the options of the slave currencys. once again valuing goverment debt regarding it as a asset rather than a liability. IMF SDRs. CBDCs. These options are exactly the opposite of what is needed for a standard of living where freedom and stability is valued.

            On the other hand we have a new system forming largely from trying to effect a cou in Russia that destroyed in economically that backfired. It is a system that is still being worked out but it represents a fundamental change in that debt is not regarded as a asset. Countries productivity and resources are considered in where their “peg” is in the currency basket. Prior debt is not considered. Its a bankruptcy really. A fresh start.

            Seeing as the USA is bankrupt it is a opportunity. Really neither the new BRICS++ or the USA reserve fiat can truly function without the other. USA would of course be accepted if we genuinely were willing to play with others without smacking them in the head with a nerf baseball bat. THe USA is wanted in the new system. The USA is needed in the new system.

            Participating in the new BRICS system albeit with a lower standard of living and the cessation of unlimited government spending seems quite desirable to me. Stability and pride are a different part of standard of living than material things but IMO very important. This also means we need to start to value not being at war all the time. THe fact that we are consuming resources for war in a time of resource depletion while a normal model is rather insane IMO.

            Its not just Pakistan and Sri Lanka that need to worry. The instability of the dollars purchasing power and the inherent flaws of standard of living that are being demonstrated in things like the housing crisis and the opioid crisis in a debt based financial system are increasingly apparent.

            Change is coming. Given the options
            1; digitized slave debt currency
            2. complete dollar failure-collapse
            3 nuclear war 100 years of no sunlight from dirt in the stratosphere temperature below freezing 24-7 in Northern hemisphere
            4 participation in a value not debt based currency basket that eases us into a lower standard of living from a material perspective but higher standard of living from a sustainability perspective where the children have a future

            Ill take door number 4 myself but im a simple old man. It seems to me our best bet to fulfill our duty to the children as we encounter resource depletion and try to cope with our instinct to pillage others as we encounter resource depletion(see option 3 above).

            Theres a lot of fear around change. People are scared of losing what they worked their lives for. Scared of becoming “commies” or losing freedom to innovate and create. That fear paralyzes us like a deer in the headlamp of a car. Frankly I think I am a small minority but I dont know. A lot of good hard working people are real sick of the uncertainty. I think the fear is that the uncertainty will be exploited and we will lose what has made us special as a country. In my opinion thats a small risk compared to the risks I have outlined. I think we could forge our own way keeping our constitution and our unique freedoms and participate in a value based exchange system. In fact I feel a debt based financial system is contrary to the American way and its a deception that it contributes. Until people come to terms with the fact that expanding debt infinitely leads to disaster in a finite world Im afraid the outcome will be just that-slavery, collapse, or WW3. But im afraid once again I am a minority. I think the majority would prefer to continue the debt based system. People like to consume resources and largely they seem to believe that continuation of a debt based system provides their best shot to consume the most not rocking the boat.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              Thanks! I think you make very valuable points. I especially like this section:

              Thus in my opinion the USA needs a alternative just as bad as Sri lanka or Pakistan. . . we have a new system forming largely from trying to effect a cou in Russia that destroyed in economically that backfired. It is a system that is still being worked out but it represents a fundamental change in that debt is not regarded as a asset. Countries productivity and resources are considered in where their “peg” is in the currency basket. Prior debt is not considered. Its a bankruptcy really. A fresh start.

              Seeing as the USA is bankrupt it is a opportunity. Really neither the new BRICS++ or the USA reserve fiat can truly function without the other. USA would of course be accepted if we genuinely were willing to play with others without smacking them in the head with a nerf baseball bat. THe USA is wanted in the new system. The USA is needed in the new system.

              Participating in the new BRICS system albeit with a lower standard of living and the cessation of unlimited government spending seems quite desirable to me.

              I hadn’t thought of that possibility. Certainly, and new financial system is needed, one that does not consider debt as an asset. Our current system assumes that debt can be repaid with interest, when that likely is not possible.

      • Correct…when I lived in the Boston area twenty years ago NPR radio had talk show programs about police, teachers and fire protection not able to afford to live in the community they served…like in Concord Massachusetts…
        Usually they had to commute outside long distances to their job. Don’t recall if there was a remedy enacted.
        Lots of home owners rent out rooms to single folks to covers the high cost of living there.
        Doubt things have changed..

    • I’ve tried to make this point before.

      wealth—in whatever form, is part of the support structure in which we all live, at varying levels of prosperity. We can agree that there is something very wrong with a society that tolerates 90%+ of the world’s wealth being in the hands of 10% of people.

      But we, the poor masses, seem to persist in the delusion that the ultra-wealthy can do without us, and with reason that follows on from that, want to get rid of us.

      wealth exists, for the most part, because we create it.

      The ultra wealthy are in a position to cream off the top only because we support the commercial mechanisms which allow that to be.

      Take away ‘us’ and the entire commercial edifice dissolves to dust. There will be no ‘value’.
      The value of any object is only what someone else will pay for it.
      In a world inhabited only by ‘billionaires’, commercial exchange cannot be sustained by selling Renoirs or Picassos or gold bricks to each other.
      Neither can wealth be sustained by dealing in a stockmarket where companies have no employees.

      You might own a massive oilfield, but unless someone takes your oil away and burns it—it is worth, quite literally, nothing.

      I keep repeating this, in the vain hope that we might get rid of the notion that the ultra wealthy are trying to bump the rest of us off.

      • ssincoski
        ssincoski says:

        I agree that they can’t afford to get rid of all of us. But a 10-20% drop might be in the cards. Once the dust settles, they can recalibrate. If the pie is getting smaller, there need to be less eaters.

        • ‘fraid it still doesn’t work, for a number of reasons

          1—a perceived mass cull would bring about chaos on a global scale,
          all commercial and industrial systems would be wrecked in civil upheaval

          and thats just for starters.

          • ssincoski
            ssincoski says:

            Agree about perceived, but not sure given the level the propaganda machine is cranked up these days, anyone would perceive anything. It doesn’t even have to be a planned cull. There are already 800 million to a billion food-insecure people in the world. The ‘leaders’ will just shrug and say: so sad, we tried! I seriously don’t think we will even make it to 2030 without a 10-20% population drop, planed or not. Overshoot is in progress.

            • by perceived, my meaning was that those being culled would be aware of their culling—and react violently.

              Would you submit to a cull passively?

              The reason so many are food insecure is that sufficient energy is not available (under present conditions) to bring food and people together in a meaningful way.
              44m are on food supplement benefit in he USA alone.
              The nation isn’t short of food (yet) it is obsessed with the fear of ‘socialism’ which would be required to distribute food equally.

              The planet must make a profit before it can feed the people living on it.
              But even that has a crazy thread, because if people are fed, they promptly produce more people.
              Which compounds the issue still further.

              We have locked ourselves into this insanity—there are no ‘elders’ hell bent on killling us off for their personal benefit–we are doing it to ourselves.

              If nations perceive themselves to be ‘dying’ they will strive to survive by invading other nations.

              We are seeing the beginning of that this century by economic migrations.—ie desperation.
              ‘Leaders’ have no more idea of what to do about this mess than you or I do.

          • DB says:

            I think you’ve just hit on one of the main disputes between you and Fast Eddy. As ssincoski notes, (Covid) propaganda allows people to believe that cull of millions is not occurring …

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I love a good Cull.. plenty of gnarly old dead wood + MORE-ONS who serve zero purpose – exterminate exterminate

            • see my previous comment on this thread

            • Mike Roberts
              Mike Roberts says:

              Only millions? If you think the cull is being done via vaccines, then you must think vaccines are fairly safe, since maybe 4-5 billion people have been vaccinated. Millions would only be a fraction of a percent.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Ya but the rest are suffering from VAIDS.

              It’s fun to watch the covidiots try to stifle their endless coughing fits and insist they’ve got something gone down the wrong hole hahahaha

              Id-IOTS

            • i have a reasonably wide circle of friends, neighbours and family

              all of whom have been vaxxed

              i feel sure that if a ‘cull’ was being initiated, (presumably by ‘the elders’), by now, some of us would have commented on the death rate.

              As it is, I think one mentioned a sore arm.

              As to ‘disputes’ between eddy and myself, There is no dispute. Eddy tells me (and everybody else) all that is ‘correct’ on any given day.
              I then point out that he has no clothes on.

              We take it from there.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I’ve read that most people who experience a vax injury — are told by their doctor that it’s not the vax… and they believe it. But they don’t say anything … because they suspect it’s the vax… and they don’t want to betray the team and contribute to injection hesitancy.

              More people have died and injured in the past years in America alone than dead and wounded in the entire Vietnam War.

              Everyone knows multiple people with injuries.

              My ex-neighbour – who is dying — had both heart damage then Lou Gehrig’s – she is convinced the vax had nothing to do with either. So her friends and family don’t warn anyone off the vax — and they all continue boosting. I know that for a fact

            • Withnail says:

              A cull of millions is not occurring. The 8 billionth human recently arrived on the planet.

            • banned says:

              “Only millions? If you think the cull is being done via vaccines, then you must think vaccines are fairly safe, since maybe 4-5 billion people have been vaccinated. Millions would only be a fraction of a percent.”

              No human injection advocate would make this argument. Only a couple million dead injections are safe. Norm on his worst day wouldn’t make this argument.

        • MM says:

          I hate eating anyways.

      • Dennis L. says:

        Norm,

        Wealth is marginal, it cannot be liquidated in its entirety, it can only earn a return, small amounts can be liquidated but the rate is limited.

        Dennis L.

        • not quite sure of your point Dennis.

          Wealth is ‘commercial flow’

          you can possess 1000 gold bricks or a bag of diamonds, in a bank vault somewhere–or buried in your garden, but that only represents a token of wealth if you decided to trade it or move it—ie make it ‘flow’ with a purpose in mind. (all or a proportion of it)

          That flow can only happen through ‘energy exchange’—as facilitated by the ‘promise of energy’ contained in your negotiable assets (the gold or diamonds say).

          If we were in a situation where most people were no longer in existence (ie dead), then there would be no purpose in converting your assets (above) into other negotiable energy forms, because there would no people around to absorb/utilise that energy in its changed form.

          eg—no point in investing your gold bricks in a factory making tv sets (for instance) if there are no people available to buy tv sets. (or even make them)
          Leave your gold bricks buried in the garden, and in 1000 years someone will dig them up and wonder “why”.

          In other words—you are a billionaire when you bury the gold, but a pauper when you dig it up, if no one wants to buy it from you.

      • banned says:

        quality not quantity. If the gene therapies effect reproduction capability its not a cull.

  22. Sam says:

    Gail I’m reading stories that shale is way down and at its end… is this what you are seeing and if so that seems like it will drastically reduce overall oil…leading the u.s to import more and borrow more….that seems significant… I am seeing a lot of anti Saudi rhetoric lately 😬…..maybe the u. S will start another war soon.

  23. Rodster says:

    Per Chris Martenson “Fauci’s Emails Reveal Lab-Leak Plot”

    https://peakprosperity.com/fauci-emails-reveal-lab-leak-coverup/

    • I AM THE MOB says:

      Do you know why people eat bats in China that spread coronaviruses?

      Poverty.

    • CTG says:

      At this stage even if God appear and say that this is all a fake, no one will even believe. The masses are already “at that level” that nothing will awaken them.

      • Dennis L. says:

        CTG,

        We humans have been around for a long time, we are part of the universe which works in very strange ways. Control is most likely an illusion, some of us are going to make it much as some of us made it through the supposed Toba bottleneck 75k or so years ago. Conjecture has the overall population down to less than 100k.

        Conclusion: we humans are very well designed to survive. Frustration arises upon realization that one’s self is not among the chosen people, bummer.

        Dennis L.

        • Cromagnon says:

          We, being the entire population of earth and it’s entire biosphere may well be part of a similacrum that is designed to harvest some form of spiritual energy in the form of emotional waveforms.
          I just rediscovered the carthic concept of demiurge and the work of Robert Munroe. I read his stuff back in the eighties.
          If there is credence to the vast evidences found in reincarnation studies and ancient texts then we may well be entering a truly pivotal time in this “ worlds “history.
          Perhaps the goal should be spiritual salvation through defiance. Don’t agree with anything any Archon says,…. on this side of the veil or the other!

          Those that resist can perhaps move outside this construct and find out what truly lies in the great beyond.

          • Replenish – Pennsylvania, USA
            Replenish says:

            Demiurges, Egregores and Archons Oh My!!

          • Xabier says:

            Veils:

            ‘You are your own veil: transcend it!’

            (Hafiz, Persian poet and Sufi).

            ‘From the moment that you entered this Abode of Illusion, a ladder of escape was provided for you’.

            ( Rumi – or perhaps Khayyam – also Sufis).

            ‘I was a Hidden Treasure, seeking to be known by you’.

            (Allah, ie ‘The Divine’, the Koran).

            ‘The Divine Light is like a lamp, placed in a niche, behind a pearly glass, fed from an everlasting oil neither of East nor West.

            And the Divine leads to that Light whom it will.

            As for the liars and evil doers, buried under lies like dark waves and clouds, wave upon wave, cloud upon cloud, they shall not see that Light for the Divine shall deny it to them’

            (Koran).

        • CTG says:

          Dennis, seriously please apply critical thinking and disregard all the “experts”.

          Humans were down to 7000 people but in our case, let us make it like 1,000,000 people. Spread them over Africa or all over the world. What are the chances of them meeting up and having offspring? Also add in that they have to survive volcanic winter. Cold, air is perhaps nasty or even poisonous, food was scarce, and they have probably no shoes to walk around. Leaves and tree bark are perhaps in very low supply.

          So, you think it is possible to for them to walk around thousands of square kilometers to find a mate and have offspring so that we are here today? Carrying a child while looking for food and it was cold? Supposely 10,000 people were left and say all of them are in Africa. You know how big Africa is?

          Please don’t quote any literature. Just “think”. Modern humans lack the capability to think. They just want to read and agree with “experts”

          • Withnail says:

            Spread them over Africa or all over the world. What are the chances of them meeting up and having offspring?

            Humans live in tribal groups not on their own

          • if—as has been suggested, (and figured out by reverse calculation,)–7000 people survived the Toba eruption, it should be both obvious and logical that those 7k people would have survived in isolated groups, 100 here—50 somewhere else, maybe 500 close enough to be in touch with one another.

            The vast majority, after the blast would convinced ‘they’ were the only survivors.

            So they eat and breed among their own kind, 2 or 3 centuries would produce 000s of offspring, after 1000 years there would be likely over a million–still scattered in isolated pockets.

            it might have taken 10k years for the earth to fill up again

          • MM says:

            A simulation of “let them guess the rules”
            Quite funny!
            It is pretty clear that all results are in after a trillion years already what has probably been a trillion by the trillion years ago.
            Lets keep on going pedal to the metal!!!

      • Fast Eddy says:

        They’d lose their minds if they became aware of the moon fakery… but this… this would be a nightmare of nightmares for the MOREONS…

        Like the moon fakery – they will refuse to look even if someone shows them … right norm…

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      According to Martenson, this whole thing started when Fauci and others figured out that the virus was likely from a lab leak. They needed to cover up the lab leak, for fear that, if the general public knew about it, they would cut back funding for viruses research and related vaccine research.

      January 31 memo from Kristian Anderson to Anthony Fauci said (in scientific language) that the virus didn’t look like something that could have evolved through natural processes. Fauci’s first reaction was to say of February 1, basically, we need to get a team of virologists to looking this possibility.

      The virus looked like it had four inserts into an earlier virus.

      According to the video, in just four days, Kristian Anderson completely flipped his story, without any evidence.

      There are many more details in the video, and if you pay, even more behind the pay wall. In Martenson’s write up, he calls the group of researchers who hid the real story “evil people.”

      • banned says:

        Yes we get confirmation of what we all knew but it gets left here. When Fauci says “the majority of researchers agree that the virus came from natural origins” he is correct. That they agree to that because their funding depends on it is not of consequence. It was a dual whammy as the emails demonstrate. Researchers were disturbed that their status in society might become considered bad. None wanted to be “one of those people:” so they had dual motives to say the virus did not come from a lab. Some found it painful that the evidence is conclusive of a lab origin but they towed the line.

        In some ways as Martin mentions the most intereresting thing is the exclusion of Baric and Daszak. THe father of corona virus research and his financier activity engaged in GOF research suddenly are not asked to weigh in on the virus’s origins. Also interesting is the India researchers early revelation of the HIV inserts which was one of the first to be condemned as “conspiracy theory” was absolutely true.

        It really doesnt matter. Martins extraordinary journey of a understanding in this matter doesnt matter nothing will change. If the orgin of the virus is acknowledged the matter of liability is raised. That wont happen.

        In a sane world once the lab origin was confirmed which science does to a degree of 1 in 100000000000000000000000000 certainty the proximity of the outbreak to the GOF facilities aside GOF research would be internationally banned. GOF research is tied at the hip with gene therapy research. As we can observe there are powerful forces at work from pharmacopeia which has now a strong relationship with MIC that wish continuing gene therapy research. The technology is enormously powerful and the seduction of that power will not be set aside. The origin of the virus is just a small part of the puzzle. When the origin mistruths, the early treatment suppression, the emergency authorizations to develop gene editing techniques using injections are regarded as a whole it becomes overwhelmingly clear that we are subjects in a extensive experiment. Someone has decided to whip humanity into a shape of their liking genetically.

        Fauci could video himself having sex with a bat, post it on tiktok and nothing would change. The patents for the gene therapies were filed prior to the “outbreak”. This brave new world of GOF and gene therapy is here as long as BAU is and actually probably far longer. The world we knew or thought we knew is gone. Rand and a few others will make some noise. I notice their noise is rather limited in its extent. No wonder as if they establish origin liability breaks the USA. Someone has set a course and that course direction will continue. All we can hope for is no big surprises like WW3. The future of the genetic experimentation will not be administrated via injection but by other means where compliance is not required. We really dont know if prior evolutionary changes in our species occurred the way we think. Regardless of the actuality of human participation in the genetic experimentation implementation I question whether its source is truly human in origin. I have no evidence to the contrary its just a “notion” and notions are often incorrect. I never in my wildest dreams would have suspected these occurrences as possibilities three years ago.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Thanks for the additional information about the Chris Martenson video. I didn’t have a chance to look at it all the way through. Thanks for pointing out:

          “In some ways as Martin mentions the most intereresting thing is the exclusion of Baric and Daszak. THe father of corona virus research and his financier activity engaged in GOF research suddenly are not asked to weigh in on the virus’s origins.” Obviously they know, and Fauci knows that they know.

          Another thing you say is:
          “Also interesting is the India researchers early revelation of the HIV inserts which was one of the first to be condemned as “conspiracy theory” was absolutely true.” It is pretty obvious that putting in four HIV inserts is something aimed to make the virus worse. No wonder they couldn’t let the story out.

          Also,
          “Researchers were disturbed that their status in society might become considered bad. None wanted to be “one of those people:”

          No kidding! When you add all of the issues of who was doing the funding to the story, it becomes overwhelmingly obvious that there is a need for a huge cover-up.

          • project wis.dom
            project wis.dom says:

            Apart from the mainstream narrative, i.e. virus zoonotic roots, there are two competitive hypotheses. Major one is a lab-leak. There are too many “coincidences” happening in the second half of 2019 though – see article below. In this case the third theory of deliberate implant by third party becomes plausible. And when you ask “cui bono” you can easily find responsible party.

            https://thephilosophicalsalon.com/a-self-fulfilling-prophecy-systemic-collapse-and-pandemic-simulation/

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Leak implies accident… the virus was created and released on purpose — just as BAU as about to implode

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              I am afraid this article is correct:

              The mainstream narrative should therefore be reversed: the stock market did not collapse (in March 2020) because lockdowns had to be imposed; rather, lockdowns had to be imposed because financial markets were collapsing. With lockdowns came the suspension of business transactions, which drained the demand for credit and stopped the contagion. In other words, restructuring the financial architecture through extraordinary monetary policy was contingent on the economy’s engine being turned off. Had the enormous mass of liquidity pumped into the financial sector reached transactions on the ground, a monetary tsunami with catastrophic consequences would have been unleashed.

              As claimed by economist Ellen Brown, it was “another bailout”, but this time “under cover of a virus.” Similarly, John Titus and Catherine Austin Fitts noted that the Covid-19 “magic wand” allowed the Fed to execute BlackRock’s “going direct” plan, literally: it carried out an unprecedented purchase of government bonds, while, on an infinitesimally smaller scale, also issuing government backed ‘COVID loans’ to businesses. In brief, only an induced economic coma would provide the Fed with the room to defuse the time-bomb ticking away in the financial sector.

            • I just finished reading this & it is an excellent timeline. Gail has talked about the financial issues in 2019 that preceded covid & this is a good look at these economics. Thanks ‘project” for posting.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          None of them will ever make the connection between the creation of the virus with the energy depletion situation.

          They don’t have the Horse Power for that.

  24. Fast Eddy says:

    Alberta schoolteachers break their silence on what they’re witnessing after the shots.

    https://www.redvoicemedia.com/2022/11/2nd-grade-student-suddenly-dies-kids-struggling-to-concentrate-post-vaccination/ref/8/

    Red Voice Media (https://www.redvoicemedia.com/2022/11/2nd-grade-student-suddenly-dies-kids-struggling-to-concentrate-post-vaccination/ref/8/)
    2nd Grade Student Suddenly Dies, Kids Struggling to Concentrate Post-Vaccination
    Alberta schoolteachers break their silence on what they’re witnessing after the shots.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Disturbing!

  25. Fast Eddy says:

    So he(?) is planning to snip his dongle off? https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/42435

    BTW – bought my fishing license – it asked for gender with the option of non-binary…

    Is dog a gender?

  26. Fast Eddy says:

    Cheena https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/42406
    https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/42407
    https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/42411

    norm?

    Dr. James Thorp: “Why would [Pfizer] want to block something for 75 years? Doesn’t every world citizen deserve to know what that was because, by that time, there were billions of injections given all over the world?”

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/dr-james-thorp-what-pfizers-internal-data-reveals-about-vaccines-and-pregnancy_4886318.html?utm_source=share-btn-copylink

  27. Fast Eddy says:

    Cull https://palexander.substack.com/p/do-not-forget-japanese-biodistribution

    Why cull when you could just slam the burn by banning tourism

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Role of vaccines in reducing fertility.

  28. Vern Baker says:

    https://www.rintrah.nl/the-died-suddenly-explosion/

    A continuation of the theory as to why all the Died Suddenly posts are a thing

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Another round of Boosters for everyone – put it on Fast Eddy’s tab

      https://clipartart.com/images250_/clipart-hurrah.jpg

      (said norm)

      norm – do you wonder how FE pumps out quality content like this day after day after day?

      1500HP has something to do with it… fuelled with BB (Bolivian Blow)

      • eddy

        it’s true that i’ve never come across a self-inflating windbag before. One that self-inflates on getting out of bed each morning, to inform the world that he has been spared to perform his daily duty of informing humankind that he exists. (therefore he is)

        One where, when the inflation hole is released, he flies uncontrollably round the room making a rude noise, before collapsing shapelessly on the floor.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This seems to be Rintrah’s take on why Died Suddenly posts are a thing:

      It seems to me, that vast droves of people are in the process of having their immune response tipped towards an IgG4 tolerance response. [Through vaccines and boosters.]

      If people are then eventually reinfected, the antibody response is effectively entirely IgG4 dominated, which doesn’t trigger inflammation and so the infection becomes effectively silent, you don’t really notice common cold-like symptoms. IgG4, as an anti-inflammatory antibody that doesn’t activate complement and poorly binds to the Fcr receptor fails to bring the viral load down to zero. The virus eventually damages the cardiovascular system, resulting in a sudden unexpected death.

  29. Rodster says:

    “CDC Caught Manipulating Data”
    And here are the 15 “Adverse Events of Special Interest” the CDC listed as “Prespecified Medical Conditions” in its v-safe protocol but never added to v-safe as check-the-box conditions for users to select. https://t.co/6s1a4WniDl pic.twitter.com/7mojNKAQtU

    — Aaron Siri (@AaronSiriSG) November 28, 2022

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) were court-ordered to turn over data, proving the agency knew the vaccination was not safe from the start. Based on the v-safe active monitoring app that compiled the data of over 10 million users, around 8% reported requiring medical care after their vaccination. Nearly half (48%) went to urgent care, while others were sent to the emergency room (15%), and some were hospitalized (10%).

    One in three overall reported adverse reactions. There were 10 million symptoms reported to the CDC from January to April 2021. The Informed Consent Action Network (ICAN) has been fighting for nearly two years to receive five excel sheets with adverse side effect data from the CDC. It is clear why they hid the information. The CDC continually fails to be transparent with the public, and did not even place symptoms that could indicate myocarditis or pericarditis in their survey. Users could place these symptoms in an open text field under “other,” but the CDC will not release those entries.

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/corruption/cdc-caught-manipulating-data/

    • MM says:

      If I were head of CDC the problem would be solved with “if there is no data, there is nothing to hide”.
      Keep on digging!

  30. This one is going out for the children.

    We will never forget.

  31. We is the wise of Britain. No surrender to the British State.

    Freedom for Scotland!

    ‘And on his breast the Saxon green / And it is all in my head / And what, tell me, what for? And what if your heathen lad be slain?’

    Independence now!

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Very nice. A lovely song, with acoustical guitar.

  32. Lastcall says:

    Oil is old news…..there are new frontiers to conquer. Natural Asset Companies.
    They have just monetised many sheoples immune systems; why stop there.

    Debt entrapment is one avenue they use; the usual suspects. NZ Govt is spiraling into debt dystopia, so you can guess the world bank will lend…under certain conditions!
    There goes the commons.

    “Our hope is that owning a natural asset company is going to be a way that an increasingly broad range of investors have the ability to invest in something that’s intrinsically valuable, but, up to this point, was really excluded from the financial markets.”
    ‘The IEG’s (Intrinsic Exchange Group) mission focuses on “pioneering a new asset class based on natural assets and the mechanism to convert them to financial capital.” “These assets,” IEG states, make “life on Earth possible and enjoyable…They include biological systems that provide clean air, water, foods, medicines, a stable climate, human health and societal potential.”

    Put differently, NACs (Natural Asset Companies)will not only allow ecosystems to become financial assets, but the rights to “ecosystem services”, or the benefits people receive from nature as well. These include food production, tourism, clean water, biodiversity, pollination, carbon sequestration and much more.’

    ://unlimitedhangout.com/2021/10/investigative-reports/wall-streets-takeover-of-nature-advances-with-launch-of-new-asset-class/

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Perhaps this link is little better:
      https://unlimitedhangout.com/2021/10/investigative-reports/wall-streets-takeover-of-nature-advances-with-launch-of-new-asset-class/

      This story is really strange.
      Wall Street’s Takeover of Nature Advances with Launch of New Asset Class
      A project of the multilateral development banking system, the Rockefeller Foundation and the New York Stock Exchange recently created a new asset class that will put, not just the natural world, but the processes underpinning all life, up for sale under the guise of promoting “sustainability.”

      One section is
      A New Way to Loot

      The ultimate goal of NACs is not sustainability or conservation – it is the financialization of nature, i.e. turning nature into a commodity that can be used to keep the current, corrupt Wall Street economy booming under the guise of protecting the environment and preventing its further degradation. Indeed, IEG makes this clear when they note that “the opportunity” of NACs lies not in their potential to improve environmental well-being or sustainability, but in the size of this new asset class, which they term “Nature’s Economy.”

      • MM says:

        A friend said:
        “You always talk about Agenda 2030 what is this?”
        “I sent you several links about that!”
        “I do not read your f*ing links, asshole”

  33. When I was a young boy I used to run up and down playing ‘cowboys’ under the ‘guidance’ of the evil British state.

    ‘Round 1’

  34. Mac
    Agamemnon says:

    Here was a way out sci-fi idea:
    (As kids we didn’t have a better alternative; can’t remember but I don’t think star fleet
    Did either)

    In the episode, a race of aliens from an overpopulated planet abduct Captain Kirk to solve their problem.

    Hodin’s plan is to infect the Gideon population with the virus, shortening their immense lifespans and relieving the population problem. Kirk is to supply the virus, while Odona’s death is to serve as an inspiration for future volunteers. Questioned about alternatives, Hodin explains that the Gideon people’s regenerative abilities would foil sterilization attempts, and that other methods of birth control would never be accepted.

  35. Fast Eddy says:

    Who needs myocarditis when you can have an entire f789ed vascular system!

    https://palexander.substack.com/p/lei-et-al-sars-cov-2-spike-protein

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      ALONE, the spike does not need the rest of the virus so much so that purified spike causes devastating cardiovascular damage.

      You do not need the rest of the virus and the replicating business end, just the spike and the spike alone can cause the massive vessel wall damage. We thus continue to question why would vaccine developers give your immune system an antigen target e.g. the spike protein (to induce an immune response) that is the most dangerous part of the virus?

      “A lot of people think of it as a respiratory disease, but it’s really a vascular disease,” says Assistant Research Professor Uri Manor, who is co-senior author of the study. “That could explain why some people have strokes, and why some people have issues in other parts of the body. The commonality between them is that they all have vascular underpinnings.” Principally blood clotting.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Very true!

  36. There is some serious dubstep coming out of NZ on the Deep, Dark & Dangerous label. I may have dismissively underestimated NZ’ers and their connection to present day Britain. FE, this one is going out for you mate.

  37. moss says:

    twice in a row with replies, Gail, goes to the main discussion. This was in reply to #398143. sorry. Have there been scripting changes?

    • Rodster says:

      JavaScript needs to be enabled in your browser or it will be placed as a standalone comment.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Not that I know about.

    • moss says:

      Some is and some isn’t blocked, but it’s changed since last month.
      OK allowed two more and we’ll see where this one posts
      forgive we preNorm fossils

      • Withnail says:

        There was a time before Norman?

        • moss says:

          er, sorry, I meant we for whom the prospect of Normhood imminently awaits
          seem to have resolved the functionality while still blocking 16 risks inc google, twitter,and gravitar scripting installs and a youtube iframe, plus
          who knows what slips through? My tech savvy denialist friends tell me it’s all futile anyway

  38. moss says:

    Thanks, Vern for your view. My question was more about what it would look like, rather than what would cause it. Yeah, I feel it’s all swirling down the exponential vortex too, middle class first, but with the indebtedness levels of all financialised economies what will be the impact of that amount of credit creation to meet the interest payment and prevent of ubiquitious default?

    In my interpretation of MMT this has been the purpose of all the QE printed so far everywhere because economies are not generating sufficient surplus to carry the impost of interest rates at current levels. So, let’s double them!

    The 2008 dummy run with US mortages, gives an inkling what this time could look like – massive foreclosure on collateral. Collapse the card house and check out who’s swimming naked. It’s my personal interpretation that that is why the IMF is so busily sticking up as much of the globe as it can

    https://www.npr.org/2022/11/09/1134543648/bangladesh-economy-imf-loan

    • Vern Baker says:

      What would it look like? I suspect that there is some mechanism where all property (land and vehicles etc) with even a dollars worth of mortgage on them will be spun into a Blackrock type entity, in a single moment in time. There would be some kind of future leaning definition of value based on a return to some viable economy, but with much lower fuel inputs which will favour anything built or operating. Tokens again?

      People will be rendered free of debt as well as free of possessions… just like the story goes. As in all communist take overs, people will then be assigned to different places they will call home, and assigned general jobs to ensure the beneficial ones will be fed. Standard play outs there.

      Travel and vacations will mostly fade away. People might even be generally happier if they can make their own moonshine and spend time playing cards. At least they wont need to work too hard. Meals will be mostly potatoes and some kind of packet sauce which includes protein. For the non-social types, relatively inexpensive VR will be the cure. (( See: https://simonstalenhag.se/es.html Electric State for a good overview ))

      Life will be miserable for those who were used to having liberty and freedom. Houses wont be painted, cars will stop operating, people will enjoy gardening again, and telling stories about old times. People will die more often from moonshine induced suicide when their body pains become unbearable.

      • value cannot be defined by external forces—(governments etc)

        value can only be defined through energy resources available to those who comprise a defined community.

        if a community’s access to energy is restricted to stuff that needs a growing season, then their available energy is restricted to that growing season. That defines a ‘viable economy.’

        The alternatives are:
        1 steal someone else’s resources
        2 find an alternative energy source–eg fossil fuels,

        Those are non viable economies, because they are very short term and unsustainable. Trouble is, people see them as ‘viable’ when they are not.

        • Vern Baker says:

          I speculate that society will attempt to retain the internet and networking. That appears to be a way of ensuring the population can be both entertained and controlled. There in would also be a mechanism for determining the value of … everything. This will be used to keep some form of an economy alive for humanity to move forward by.

          Whether it will or not is probably not really a consideration for whomever is able to eek out a living in a much reduced energy consuming (and dangerous) society. Perhaps someone will figure out fusion (or a related means to generate energy), and attempt to galvanize humanity with a vision statement to regain a desirable future.

          Just like Gibraltar in WW2, everyone will need to grow food as best they can with what ever they can, everywhere they can. Those who don’t will be suspect. For Canada and other northern countries, the Winter time will probably be spent gathering wood for the next season. Roads will be impassable for some of that time. Winter wont necessarily be a time to relax. I wonder if being near hydro dams might be the same as living in a high tech centre today, as that will be the closest thing we have to free energy. Hopefully someone will have the foresight to have several decades of ball bearings ready to go.

          With regards to viability, I suspect that it will be a knife edge, and a bad year will simply mean fewer people. Everything will need to function with out phosphates and nitrogen, which will impact all food producing areas.

          • the internet etc is a study in energy-based complexity of the highest order, (have you checked out the function of data centres?)

            that will be the first thing to go

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              This won’t be good for all of the folks working online. In fact, it will be a problem for OurFiniteWorld.com as well.

            • blackouts are threatened in numerous places

              i can only imagine these will occur more and more frequently—if gradually—until we come to the realisation that the internet party’s over.

              how long have we had it? 30 odd years maybe.

              but it has come to take over our lives—it will be difficult / maybe impossible without it.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              When the internet goes down — it’s time for Super Fent… things will get very … real… within hours of that

            • you will be sorely missed eddy

              i’m working on a pigeon post OFW system —will you be up for that?

            • been trying to self cull for years

              the method i’m using takes decades to take effect.
              I think it’s having the opposite effect to what I was warned about, all those years ago

          • Withnail says:

            Perhaps someone will figure out fusion (or a related means to generate energy)

            There are a mountain of reasons why fusion will never work.

            • again———

              energy isn’t the problem.

              it’s what you do with energy that’s the problem.
              if you don’t have the means to convert energy into wages, then energy will remain unused

          • Withnail says:

            Everything will need to function with out phosphates and nitrogen, which will impact all food producing areas.

            Soils that have been used for farming are dead, they will produce next to nothing without fertiliser.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            no spare parts no hydro .. no grid

    • moss says:

      Talk about synchronicity … er, simulacrum or is it, as FE calls it, THE TWILIGHT ZONE
      Prof Hudson chimes in with his answer to my very question today:

      “MH: The exponential mathematics of interest-bearing debt makes debt crises inevitable. That has been the case for thousands of years. The expansion path of debt is more rapid than that of the underlying “real” economy.

      “At some point, either debts will have to be wiped out – annulled – or countries will fall into debt peonage to the creditor powers, just as within creditor nations the economy is polarizing between the creditor One Percent and the increasingly indebted 99 Percent.”

      unz.com/mhudson/interview-with-almayadeen-tv-lebanon

  39. moss says:

    Early in the year, maybe March, after NC jumped the shark and I was sniffing around for another bunch of chewers of the fat (HFLC diet here) I delved into the commentariat here after years of never clicking the comments button. A very early discussion to catch my particular attention concerned search engines with DDG implementing results censorship and alternatives such as Alpinebovines and Brave.

    My experimental results suggest censorship of “current affairs” is very guided now on DDG. How’s this?
    Last week my go to source for ebooks was just cancelled, returning a very nasty message from DoJ (sic) and FBI. This was an immense treasury of literature, history, academic material, etc much of it out of copyright, to me for years. Gone! So, what’s the story?
    DDG: rien de rien
    Alpinebovines: too chicken to look up the search terms without using a tor browser to mask my enquiry from my evil ISP, which I understand it should. The bovines don’t work on tor – just like the G enemy and its catchas and all sites deploying these trackers. I have wondered over the course of the year as the bovines add more and more scripting, ads, offers and the returns they provide have become very geographically targetted – an utter damnation to one living in a remote woke backwater.
    Brave: doesn’t work on tor either which I consider a very adverse sign. Found the returns unsatisfactory and stopped using it way back.

    Yandex: Only use this on the tor browser, but ta dah! In the first four results
    https://www.rt.com/news/566049-zlibrary-shutdown-fbi-seizure-copyright/
    https://goodereader.com/blog/e-book-news/z-library-domains-are-seized-and-pirate-book-site-is-dead

    My conclusion is that I continue to use DDG for much of my research but for anything contentious one needs to shop around, just like wikipee

  40. kulmthestatusquo
    kulmthestatusquo says:

    The company which publishes Burke’s Peerage still publishes the Burke’s Landed Gentry list, updated once in a while.

    https://www.burkespeerage.com/families.php

    It still publishes the list of Landed Gentry in Ireland, 100 years after Ireland’s independence.

    Some of the landed gentry had sold their land and settled in London or other places. However their names are still maintained.

    Why? They are the stakeholders of Civilization. While the upstarts are, I have to say, not part of it.

    D. H. Lawrence wrote Lady Chatterley. He included lots of sex to make sure it is read. Aldous Huxley’s wife edited it. No need to repeat its sexual contents since they are now dated; in short, it is about an upper class woman, after her husband was paralyzed during the Great War (again, thanks to Chucky Fitzclarence) , having sex with a lowly gardener. Showing the old class was being threatened by the up-and-comers who threaten the old order.

    In Lawrence’s pre-war book Sons and Lovers, a formerly wealthy woman from upper middle class ends up with a miner. Obviously such union could not last, and their only surviving son,who is neither of upper class nor of lower, can’t find anyone who he can reproduce with and is found alone at the end of the book on a self destructive mode. Such was the fate of people who had too much ambition and took social order in jeopardy, even in 1912 when that book was written.

    But, after the Great war, the upper class found it hard to contain the ambition of those who don’t belong, so Lawrence wrote Chatterley to warn against the intrusion of people who don’t belong into the class which does matter, and he was successful warning them.

    A similar book , “Mandingo”, was written by Kyle Onstott, a former dog breeder, in 1957 as the Civil Rights Movements gained traction. Although it sold more than 4.5 million copies , because it is extremely politically incorrect, it is barely remembered today. It played into the fears of caucasian men from losing their women to blacks.

    Ironically neither Lawrence, who married a German aristocratic woman with several children, nor Onslott, who appears to be homosexual (he never married but took a young man into his house and treated him as ‘family’), reproduced . They did their duty to the civilization., though.

    The cold truth is class is eternal, especially in societies with lower energy intake, and the end of BAU means the return of Genealogy as the prime ticket for success.

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