Today’s Energy Crisis Is Very Different from the Energy Crisis of 2005

Back in 2005, the world economy was “humming along.” World growth in energy consumption per capita was rising at 2.3% per year in the 2001 to 2005 period. China had been added to the World Trade Organization in December 2001, ramping up its demand for all kinds of fossil fuels. There was also a bubble in the US housing market, brought on by low interest rates and loose underwriting standards.

Figure 1. World primary energy consumption per capita based on BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

The problem in 2005, as now, was inflation in energy costs that was feeding through to inflation in general. Inflation in food prices was especially a problem. The Federal Reserve chose to fix the problem by raising the Federal Funds interest rate from 1.00% to 5.25% between June 30, 2004 and June 30, 2006.

Now, the world is facing a very different problem. High energy prices are again feeding over to food prices and to inflation in general. But the underlying trend in energy consumption is very different. The growth rate in world energy consumption per capita was 2.3% per year in the 2001 to 2005 period, but energy consumption per capita for the period 2017 to 2021 seems to be slightly shrinking at minus 0.4% per year. The world seems to already be on the edge of recession.

The Federal Reserve seems to be using a similar interest rate approach now, in very different circumstances. In this post, I will try to explain why I don’t think that this approach will produce the desired outcome.

[1] The 2004 to 2006 interest rate hikes didn’t lead to lower oil prices until after July 2008.

It is easiest to see the impact (or lack thereof) of rising interest rates by looking at average monthly world oil prices.

Figure 2. Average monthly Brent spot oil prices based on data of the US Energy Information Administration. Latest month shown is July 2022.

The US Federal Reserve began raising target interest rates in June 2004 when the average Brent oil price was only $38.22 per barrel. These interest rates stopped rising at the end of June 2006, when oil prices averaged $68.56 per barrel. Oil prices on this basis eventually reached $132.72 per barrel in July 2008. (All of these amounts are in dollars of the day, rather than being adjusted for inflation.) Thus, the highest price was over three times the price in June 2004, when the US Federal Reserve made the decision to start raising target interest rates.

Based on Figure 2 (including my notes regarding the timing of the interest rate rise), I would conclude that raising interest rates didn’t work very well at bringing down the price of oil when it was tried in the 2004 to 2006 period. Of course, the economy was growing rapidly, then. The rapid growth of the economy likely led to the very high oil price shown in mid-2008.

I expect that the result of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates now, in a low-growth world economy, might be quite different. The world’s debt bubble might pop, leading to a worse situation than the financial crisis of 2008. Indirectly, both asset prices and commodity prices, including oil prices, would tend to fall very low.

Analysts looking at the situation from strictly an energy perspective tend to miss the interconnected nature of the economy. Factors which energy analysts overlook (particularly debt becoming impossible to repay, as interest rates rise) may lead to an outcome that is pretty much the opposite result of the standard belief. The typical belief of energy analysts is that low oil supply will lead to very high prices and more oil production. In the current situation, I expect that the result might be closer to the opposite: Oil prices will fall because of financial problems brought on by the higher interest rates, and these lower oil prices will lead to even lower oil production.

[2] The purpose of the US Federal reserve raising target interest rates was to flatten the growth rate of the world economy. Looking back at Figure 1, the growth in energy consumption per capita was much lower after the Great Recession. I doubt that now in 2022, we want even lower growth (really, more shrinkage) in energy consumption per capita for future years.*

Looking at Figure 1, growth in energy consumption per capita has been very slow since the Great Recession. A person wonders: What is the point of governments and their central banks pushing the world economy down, now in 2022, when the world economy is already barely able to maintain international supply lines and provide enough diesel for all of the world’s trucks and agricultural equipment?

If the world economy is pushed downward now, what would the result be? Would some countries find themselves unable to afford fossil fuel energy products in the future? This might lead to problems both in growing and transporting food, at least for these countries. Would the whole world suffer a major crisis of some sort, such as a financial crisis? The world economy is a self-organizing system. It is difficult to forecast precisely how the situation would work out.

[3] While the growth rate in energy consumption per capita was much lower after 2008, the price of crude oil quickly bounced back to over $120 per barrel in inflation-adjusted prices in the 2011-2013 time frame.

Figure 3 shows that oil prices immediately bounced back up after the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Quantitative Easing (QE), which the US Federal Reserve began in late 2008, helped energy prices to shoot back up again. QE helped keep the cost of borrowing by governments low, allowing governments to run larger deficits than might otherwise have been possible without interest rates rising. These higher deficits added to the demand for commodities of all types, including oil, thus raising prices.

Figure 3. Average annual oil prices inflation-adjusted oil prices based on data from BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy. Amounts shown are Brent equivalent spot prices.

The chart above shows average annual Brent oil prices through 2021. The above chart does not show 2022 prices. The current Brent oil price is about $91 per barrel. So, oil prices today are a little higher than they have been recently, but they are nowhere nearly as high as they were in the 2011 to 2013 period or in the late 1970s. The extreme reaction we are seeing is very strange. The problem seems to be much more than oil prices, by themselves.

[4] High prices in the 2006 to 2013 period allowed the rise of unconventional oil production. These high oil prices also helped keep conventional oil production from falling after 2005.

It is difficult to find detail on the precise amount of unconventional oil, but some countries are known for their unconventional oil production. For example, the US has become a leader in the extraction of tight oil from shale formations. Canada also produces a little tight oil, but it also produces quite a bit of very heavy oil from the oil sands. Venezuela produces a different type of very heavy oil. Brazil produces crude oil from under the salt layer of the ocean, sometimes called pre-salt crude oil. These unconventional types of extraction tend to be expensive.

Figure 4 shows world oil production for various combinations of countries. The top line is total world crude oil production. The bottom gray line approximates world total conventional oil production. Unconventional oil production has been rising since, say, 2010, so this approximation is better for years 2010 and subsequent years on the chart, than it is for earlier years.

Figure 4. Crude and condensate oil production based on international data of the US Energy Information Administration. The lower lines subtract the full amount of crude and condensate production for the countries listed. These countries have substantial amounts of unconventional oil production, but they may also have some conventional production.

From this chart, it appears that world conventional oil production leveled off after 2005. Some people (often referred to as “Peak Oilers”) were concerned that conventional oil production would reach a peak and begin to decline, starting shortly after 2005.

The thing that seems to have kept production from falling after 2005 is the steep rise in oil prices in the 2004 to 2008 period. Figure 3 shows that oil prices were quite low between 1986 and 2003. Once oil prices began to rise in 2004 and 2005, oil companies found that they had enough revenue that they could start adopting more intensive (and expensive) extraction techniques. This allowed more oil to be extracted from existing conventional oil fields. Of course, diminishing returns still set in, even with these more intensive techniques.

These diminishing returns are probably a major reason that conventional oil production started to fall in 2019. Indirectly, diminishing returns likely contributed to the decline in 2020, and the failure of the oil supply to bounce back up to its 2018 (or 2019) level in 2021.

[5] A better way of looking at world crude oil production is on a per capita basis because the world’s crude oil needs depend on world population.

Everyone in the world needs the benefit of crude oil, since it is used both in farming and in transporting goods of all kinds. Thus, the need for crude oil rises with population growth. I prefer analyzing crude oil production on a per capita basis.

Figure 5. Per capita crude oil production based on international data by country from the US Energy Information Administration.

Figure 5 shows that on a per capita basis, conventional crude oil production (gray bottom line) started declining after 2005. It was only with the addition of unconventional oil that crude oil production per capita could remain fairly level between 2005 and 2018 or 2019.

[6] Unconventional oil, if analyzed by itself, seems to be quite price sensitive. If politicians everywhere want to hold oil prices down, the world cannot count on extracting very much of the huge amount of unconventional oil resources that seem to be available.

Figure 6. Crude oil production based on international data for the US Energy Information Administration for each of the countries shown.

On Figure 6, crude oil production dips in 2016 – 2017 and also in 2020 – 2021. Both the 2016 and the 2020 dips are related to low prices. The continued low prices in 2017 and 2021 may reflect start-up problems after a low price, or they may reflect skepticism that prices can stay high enough to make continued extraction profitable. Canada seems to show similar dips in its oil production.

Venezuela shows a fairly different pattern. Information from the US Energy Information Administration mentions that the country started having major problems once the world oil price started falling in 2014. I am aware that the US has had sanctions against Venezuela in recent years, but it seems to me that these sanctions are closely related to Venezuela’s oil price problems. If Venezuela’s very heavy oil could really be extracted profitably, and the producers of this oil could be taxed to provide services for the people of Venezuela, the country would not have the many problems that it has today. The country likely needs a price between $200 and $300 per barrel to allow for sufficient funds for extraction plus adequate tax revenue.

Brazil’s oil production seems to be relatively more stable, but its growth has been slow. It has taken many years to get its production up to 2.9 million barrels per day. There is also some pre-salt oil production just now getting started in Angola and other countries of West Africa. This type of oil requires a high level of technical expertise and imported resources from around the world. If world trade falters, this type of oil production is likely to falter, as well.

A large share of the world’s oil reserves are unconventional oil reserves, of one type or another. The fact that rising oil prices are a real problem for citizens means that these unconventional reserves are unlikely to be tapped. Instead, we may be dealing with seriously short supplies of products we need for operating our economies, including diesel oil and jet fuel.

[7] Figure 1 at the beginning of this post indicated falling energy consumption per capita. This problem extends to more than oil. On a per capita basis, both coal and nuclear energy consumption are falling.

Practically no one pays any attention to coal consumption, but this is the fuel that allowed the Industrial Revolution to start. It is reasonable to expect that since the world economy started using coal first, it might be the first to deplete. Figure 7 shows that world coal consumption per capita hit a peak in 2011 and has declined since then.

Figure 7. World coal consumption per capita, based on data from BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Many of us have heard about Aesop’s Fable, The Fox and the Grapes. According to Wikipedia, “The story concerns a fox that tries to eat grapes from a vine but cannot reach them. Rather than admit defeat, he states they are undesirable. The expression ‘sour grapes’ originated from this fable.”

In the case of coal, we are told that coal is undesirable because it is very polluting and raises CO2 levels. While these things are true, coal has historically been very inexpensive, and this is important for people buying coal. Coal is also easy to transport. It could be used for fuel instead of cutting down trees, thus helping local ecosystems. The negative things that we are being told about coal are true, but it is hard to find an adequate inexpensive substitute.

Figure 8 shows that world nuclear energy per capita is also falling. To some extent, its fall has stabilized since 2012 because China and a few other “developing nations” have been adding nuclear capacity, while developed nations in Europe have tended to remove their existing nuclear power plants.

Figure 8. World nuclear electricity consumption per capita, based on data from BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy. Amounts are based on the amount of fossil fuels that this electricity would theoretically replace.

Nuclear energy is confusing because experts seem to disagree on how dangerous nuclear power plants are, over the long term. One concern relates to proper disposal of spent fuel after its use.

[8] The world seems to be at a difficult time now because we don’t have any good options for fixing our falling energy consumption per capita problem, without greatly reducing world population. The two choices that seem to be available both seem to be far higher-priced than is feasible.

There are two choices that seem to be available:

[A] Encourage large amounts of fossil fuel production by encouraging very high fossil fuel prices. With such high prices, say $300 per barrel for oil, unconventional crude oil in many parts of the world would be available. Unconventional coal, such as that under the North Sea, would also be available. With sufficiently high prices, natural gas production could be raised. This natural gas could be shipped as liquefied natural gas (LNG) around the world at great cost. Additionally, many processing plants could be built, both for supercooling the natural gas to allow it to be shipped around the world and for re-gasification, when it arrives at its destination.

With this approach, food costs would be very high. Much of the world’s population would need to work in the food industry and in fossil fuel production and shipping. With these priorities, citizens would not have time or money for most things we buy today. They likely could not afford a vehicle or a nice home. Governments would need to shrivel in size, with the usual outcome being government by a local dictator. Governments wouldn’t have sufficient funds for roads or schools. CO2 emissions would be very high, but this likely would not be our most serious problem.

[B] Try to electrify everything, including agriculture. Greatly ramp up wind and solar. Wind and solar are very intermittent, and their intermittency does not match up well with human needs. In particular, one of the world’s primary needs is for heat in winter, but solar energy comes in summer. It cannot be saved until winter with today’s technology. Spend enormous amounts and resources on electricity transmission lines and batteries to try to somewhat work around these problems. Try to find substitutes for the many things that fossil fuels provide today, including paved roads and chemicals used in agriculture and in medicine.

Hydroelectricity is also a renewable form of electricity generation. It cannot be expected to ramp up much because it has mostly been built out already.

Figure 9. World consumption of hydroelectricity per capita, based on data from BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Even if greatly ramped up, wind and solar electricity production would likely be grossly inadequate by themselves to try to operate any kind of economy. In addition, at a minimum, natural gas, shipped at very high cost as LNG around the world, would likely be needed. Also, huge quantity of batteries would be needed, leading to a short supply of materials. Huge quantities of steel would be needed to make new electrical machines to try to replace current oil-power machines. A minimum 50-year transition would likely be needed.

I am doubtful that this second approach would be feasible in any reasonable timeframe.

[9] Conclusion. Figure 1 seems to imply that the world economy is headed for troubled times ahead.

The world economy is a self-organizing system, so we cannot know precisely what form changes in the next few years will take. The economy can be expected to shrink back in an uneven pattern, with some parts of the world and some classes of citizens, such as workers versus the elderly, doing better than others.

Leaders will never tell us that the world has an energy shortage. Instead, leaders will tell us how awful fossil fuels are, so that we will be happy that the economy is losing their usage. They will never tell us how worthless intermittent wind and solar are for solving today’s energy problems. Instead, they will lead us to believe that a transition to vehicles powered by electricity and batteries is just around the corner. They will tell us that the world’s worst problem is climate change, and that by working together, we can move away from fossil fuels.

Again, the whole situation reminds me of Aesop’s Fables. The system puts a “good spin” on whatever frightening changes are happening. This way, leaders can convince their citizens that everything is fine when, in fact, it is not.

NOTE

*If the US Federal Reserve raises its target interest rate, central banks of other countries around the world are forced to take a similar action if they do not want their currencies to fall relative to the US dollar. Countries that do not raise their target interest rates tend to be penalized by the market: With a falling currency, the local prices of oil and other commodities tend to rise because commodities are priced in US dollars. As a result, citizens of these countries tend to face a worse inflation problem than they would otherwise face.

The country with the greatest increase in its target interest rate can, in theory, win, in what is more or less a competition to move inflation elsewhere. This competition cannot go on indefinitely, however, because every country depends, to some extent, on imports from other countries. If countries with weaker economies (i. e. those that cannot afford to raise interest rates) stop producing essential goods for world trade, it will tend to bring the world economy down.

Raising interest rates also raises the likelihood of debt defaults, and these debt defaults can be a huge problem, especially for banks and other financial institutions. With higher interest rates, pension funding becomes less adequate. Businesses of all kinds find new investment more expensive. Many businesses are likely to shrink or fail completely. These indirect impacts are yet another way for the world economy to fail.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
This entry was posted in Energy policy, Financial Implications and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

3,147 Responses to Today’s Energy Crisis Is Very Different from the Energy Crisis of 2005

  1. Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
    Gail Tverberg says:

    New WSJ article highlights the point that supply chain problems are here to stay:

    Threat of Rail Strike Reveals Persistent Supply-Chain Risks to U.S. Economy
    Businesses and policy makers plan for ‘new normal’ of potential disruption of supplies of everything from coal to components

    President Biden signed into law a bill Friday compelling freight railroads and their workers’ unions to accept a labor agreement, averting a strike that might have disrupted a logistical linchpin of the economy. Even with the dispute resolved, the episode brought about a heightened awareness that supply hiccups could become an ongoing feature of business life in America.

    Railroads move almost 30% of U.S. freight by ton-mile, a measure of weight and distance traveled. Some products such as coal, fertilizer, grains or chemicals are particularly reliant on rail. . .

    Federal Reserve officials, who once viewed supply-chain problems as a temporary effect of the pandemic, now say they could be here to stay. Vice Chair Lael Brainard on Monday warned of the “fragility of global supply chains.” On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said supply constraints could be creating a “new normal” for the U.S. economy.

    This links to another WSJ article:
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-jackson-hole-fed-powell-11661288446
    What if the drivers of inflation are here to stay?

    • Rodster says:

      The really big question becomes was this all done on purpose to bring the house of cards crashing down? The boneheaded decisions one after another makes me think so because people can’t possibly be this inept and or stoopid to throw spanner after spanner into the works and NOT expect this type of outcome.

      • drb753
        drb753 says:

        You have not been in contact with Washington long enough Rodster. It is part and parcel of a system with control by aliens for a few generations. They go to meetings and deliberate, and the rest of the people have been silent quitting and watching porn at work for decades now.

    • Withnail says:

      President Biden signed into law a bill Friday compelling freight railroads and their workers’ unions to accept a labor agreement, averting a strike that might have disrupted a logistical linchpin of the economy

      In the late Roman empire emperor Diocletian ordered that workers in various key roles such as agriculture must continue in their jobs and not abandon them, on pain of death.

      He also set maximum prices for hundreds of items such as wheat, oil, and even the rates charged by theatre entertainers.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Sounds like a rerun, doesn’t it.

        I understand that after the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union, many workers kept doing their jobs. In part, this was to get the lunch served in the cafeteria.

        • Withnail says:

          Diocletian blamed greedy merchants, bad weather and lazy farmers for the price rises.

          Critics of Diocletian blamed Diocletian’s devolution of government into 4 smaller goverments for the problems, claiming that each of the smaller governments used as many resources to operate as the previous single central government used to.

    • Delta Air Lines and its pilots’ union have reached a preliminary agreement for raises topping 30% over four years, a milestone deal that could sharply drive up aviators’ pay across the industry.

      Pilots’ unions and airlines across the U.S. have been in tense negotiations for months if not years, as crews seek more compensation and better schedules.

      Delta pilots voted in October to authorize a strike if a deal wasn’t reached, while pilots at several airlines have picketed this year demanding contract improvements. Delta and the union were edging toward a deal in mid-November, CNBC reported.

      Unions have complained about grueling schedules as travel snapped back from a pandemic slump. Delta and other U.S. carriers are profitable again, but a shortage of trained pilots has hampered carriers’ recovery and contributed to higher airfare. It also gives pilots more power in contract negotiations. Labor and fuel are airlines’ top two expenses.

      The “agreement-in-principle” Delta reached with the Air Line Pilots Association is equal to $7.2 billion in cumulative value over four years, the union told members in an email late Friday. About a quarter of that is tied to quality-of-life improvements.

      The agreement includes an 18% increase on the day the contract is signed, then a 5% increase one year later and two 4% raises in each of the following years. It also includes a one-time payment of 4% of 2020 and 2021 pay each, plus 14% of 2022 pay.

      “We are pleased to have reached an agreement in principle for a new pilot contract, one that recognizes the contributions of our pilots to Delta’s success,” a Delta spokesman said in an emailed statement.
      CNBC

      Yep, looks as if they are here to stay…hold on…

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Airline ticket prices rising some more, I see. Delta flies out of Atlanta, so most of my flights are Delta.

  2. Who’s WINNING???
    Continuing of my post.. it gets better..

    Given both the increases in hospitalizations and the lack of certainty in the winter trajectory for COVID-19, continuing some common-sense mitigation strategies that we know work to limit transmission and illness, including masking and being up to date on vaccines and boosters, remains a very sensible approach,” she said.
    Health department data shows 73% of all residents are fully vaccinated but the percentages vary widely by age.
    Seniors aged 65 and older have the highest rate with 92% fully vaccinated while children between ages 6 months and 4 years have the lowest rate with just 6% fully vaccinated.

    Los Angeles County mask mandate could return as COVID cases rise originally appeared on abcnews.go.com

    See…just have to use common sense that we know that works…right Norm?

    • Rodster says:

      This reads more like, “let’s keep the fear level ratcheted up”. This playbook has gotten all too predictable and tiring tbh. In the end we are all dead with or without Covid 1984.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Isn’t it amazing how easily the MORENS are played by the PR Team…

        It’s like a gas pedal on a car… faster slower faster slower…

        The MOREONS have been insisting covid is over… they want it to be over… but they do not understand the Big Picture – they don’t even understand the Little Picture…

        They are confused Mentally Ill im. Beciles

        And they demand democracy hahahaha… they believe the MSM feeds them the truth hahaha

        Utter contempt …

  3. Los Angeles County mask mandate could return as COVID cases rise
    MARY KEKATOS ABC News
    Fri, December 2, 2022 at 12:09 PM·
    Los Angeles County may soon reimpose indoor mask mandates as COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations continue to rise in the area.
    During a press conference Thursday, LA County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said the largest county in the United States had reached “medium” COVID-19 transmission levels and will require face coverings if it reaches the “high” category.
    As of Dec. 1, Los Angeles County is averaging 2,490 new COVID-19 infections every day, the highest number recorded since Aug. 26, according to health department data.
    Ferrer said the real count is likely much higher due to several people testing positive with at-home rapid tests and not reporting the results to health officials or due to people not testing at all.
    Additionally, there are currently 1,164 residents hospitalized in the county due to the virus, which is the highest number of patients seen since Aug. 11.
    Daily deaths are still relatively low at 14, but the figure could rise because COVID-related fatalities tend to lag a few weeks behind case and hospitalization increases, Ferrer noted.
    “There is this common line of thinking that the pandemic is over and COVID is no longer of concern, but these numbers clearly demonstrate that COVID is still with us,” she said.

    Get ready, Folks, roll Up your sleeves … remember it’s safe and effective and it’s for everyone’s benefit….
    This should keep the Fast Eddy’s crusade going …

  4. Yes, Sir, no better than a caveman holding a big club at his neighbor doing the same.
    Sure, we’ll handle the downslope of the Energy/Resource ladder just fine…sure we will

    Pentagon debuts its new stealth bomber, the B-21 Raider
    The Associated PressWashingtonDecember 2, 2022 5:38 AM
    The bomber is part of the Pentagon’s efforts to modernize all three legs of its nuclear triad, which includes silo-launched nuclear ballistic missiles and submarine-launched warheads, as it shifts from the counterterrorism campaigns of recent decades to meet China’s rapid military modernization.
    China is on track to have 1,500 nuclear weapons by 2035, and its gains in hypersonics, cyber warfare, space capabilities and other areas present “the most consequential and systemic challenge to U.S. national security and the free and open international system,” the Pentagon said this week in its annual China report.
    “We needed a new bomber for the 21st Century that would allow us to take on much more complicated threats, like the threats that we fear we would one day face from China, Russia, ” said Deborah Lee James, the Air Force secretary when the Raider contract was announced in 2015. “The B-21 is more survivable and can take on these much more difficult threats.”

    Put my bets on it ending in this manner…
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mDLS12_a-fk

    Sure, plenty of money, resources and talent to meet that “challenge”.
    The fact that the price is not public troubles government watchdogs.
    Please, the public does not matter …just needs to be controlled

    • Hubbs says:

      Just started listening to this guy. Former military 20 yrs ago, lives in Thailand’, says protests in China are way exaggerated and probably being instigated by US assets. Says Taiwan China issue also being aggravated by US meddling, as most Taiwanese consider themselves part of China anyway. The song is the same: HK, Ukraine, etc.

      But more about the B-21 Raider: The fact is, if missile defense systems can evolve faster than stealth technology, then even with “stealth” technology and anti jamming capabilities, these don’t make sense because the Raider is not going to be entering the combat airspace anyway due to the risk of being shot down. Therefore these modern jets are using stand off weapons systems which allow their missiles to be fired beyond the range of the anti-aircraft missiles anyhow. Those bomb loads, missiles etc. for offensive purposes like the US is doing can be delivered by conventional aircraft that have no stealth technology shielding making them far cheaper to produce. Same way Isreal is using standoff weapons in Syria due to fear of Russian S300 S400 anti craft and missile defense systems. No need for B21 or F22, F-35 etc. They are costly and unnecessary. But it sure makes a big PR statement when the Raider rolls out but it will be of no practical utility and is a complete waste of money. Still hasn’t flown yet, and the so far “admitted” price per plane may be upwards of $ 750 million. Probably when all is said and done, closer to 1 billion.

      100 B2 bombers were supposed to have been built, only about 20 today.
      Same mantra for B-21. Probably fewer than 5 will get built after the usual cost overruns.

      https://youtu.be/Zq9li-2W-Yc

      • That’s how the Washington Military Industrial Complex works..
        Claim we need 100 for a major “future threat”, but really want 20, but need only 5 to get the job done…but SPEND the whole budgeted money on those 5! We all know projects go over budget …sarcasm…have plenty excuses…of course it won’t be revealed to the public….
        Yes, the cost of those planes, however many are actually built, is just a fraction of the total cost of deploying, maintaining,and manning/operating them.

        Of course, they will be eventually be utilized….as Thomas Merton mulled in one of his journals…can’t let the investment not be used for a profitable return…
        He was writing about the atomic bombs deployed over Japan…He also had the same for the corporations in Germany supplying the gas for the camps…
        Who Made Zyklon B?
        Zyklon B was made by two German companies, Tesch and Stabenow of Hamburg and Degesch of Dessau. After the war, many blamed these companies for knowingly creating a poison that was used to murder over a million people. The directors of both companies were brought to trial.
        Tesch and Stabenow director Bruno Tesch and executive manager Karl Weinbacher were found guilty and given death sentences. Both were hanged on May 16, 1946.

        Of course, some were given medals instead…
        Wernher Magnus Maximilian Freiherr von Braun was a German-American aerospace engineer and space architect. He was a member of the Nazi Party and Allgemeine SS, as well as the leading figure in the development of rocket technology in Nazi Germany and later a pioneer of rocket and space technology in the United States

      • banned says:

        The quality vs quantity debate is not 100% a viable argument in our time. Precision weapons are a game changer. Whats better than precision weapons? A whole shitload of cheap precision weapons. What does that require to produce? Massive industrial capacity. The USA outsourced all of its industrial capacity. The USA does not have the option of creating a “multi tier air defense” like Russia and China are pursuing. The USA pursues the high tech expensive top gun model not only because the culture supports it but because they have no alternative. Some of the air defense missiles fielded by Russia approach mach 20 and are nuclear warhead capable.

        Stealth technology is not invisible to radar. Its purpose is to make the data needed for missile lock impossible to obtain. Radar sees the stealth aircraft but it cant get enough data for missile lock. The use of nuclear warheads in air defense and their expanded blast radius alone raises strong questions about the value of stealth aircraft.

        The USA sole land based strategic nuclear weapon is the Minuteman III first fielded in 1962. In a modern world all strategic nuclear weapons are delivered by missile whether land sea or aircraft launched. Regardless of the launch platform the USA is far behind in missile technology. The implications of not being competitive in either offensive or defensive missile technology is concerning. More concerning is the path of the paradigm that seems to own us not visa versa.

        Where the USA dominates is in space. Space based asset capabilities are unknown to the public. Modern multi tiered air defense includes space based asset neutralization. How the space based part of a strategic nuclear exchange would play out is unknown. There are many many many unknowns regarding outcomes in a strategic nuclear exchange. The known capabilities are such a small part of a accurate analysis of a outcome of a strategic nuclear exchange that if only they are known the analysis amounts to speculation. Weapons technology using principles not revealed before is unknown. I think its safe to assume that a strategic nuclear exchange would be a extinction event but that is speculation on my part. IMO printing infinite money for military items with infinite price tags seems a practice that must be finite in terms of the thing we know as time regardless of their utility or lack thereof. The reallocation of much of these resources to facilitation that allow continuance seems to me obvious but we seem unable to do so.

    • Cynic says:

      The illiteracy is amusing: ‘more survivable’ means that it is a piece of junk liable to malfunction or crash, but probably won’t kill the pilot and crew.

      This might of course be correct, as it is Made in the USA; who knows?

      I think the dear lady meant ‘more robust’, ‘able to take more damage’, or some such thing?

      The English language went to the US….to die. (Not much better here, of course, almost any official statement or press article makes one squirm).

      Anyway, the way things are going, how good will it be for bombing an internal US rebellion?

  5. Fast Eddy says:

    Severe mental illness — gotta be the boosters https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/58436

    for norm https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/58456

    Anti-vaxxer nurse who injected up to 8,600 patients with saline instead of Covid vaccine walks free | Daily Mail Online

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11490847/Anti-vaxxer-nurse-injected-8-600-patients-saline-instead-Covid-vaccine-walks-free.html

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      First link: Interviewer reads to Sam B-F, “It says right here that the digital assets can’t be lent out.”

      • Student says:

        In the first link I see Mr. Sam B-F who seems to repeat to himself the question, like a child when one cannot find an answer.
        But as the two persons speak with a difficult accent for me, maybe I’ve not understood what is happening in the video.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          I imagine that’s what norm does when he opens and OFW comment and there’s a question for him.

          He repeats it… bewildered… confused… like a child …

          (or a brain spiked 6x boosted pro vaxxer)

      • Fast Eddy says:

        That Sambanfried guy … was given how many billion — by major investors including Black Rock…????

        How – why? Simulation?

  6. Fast Eddy says:

    TikTok star Megha Thakur, 21, dies ‘unexpectedly’ just days after posting cryptic message of her walking in New York City: ‘You’re in charge of your destiny. Remember that’

    Megha Thakur, 21, died on November 24, according to a post by her parents
    The Canadian TikTok star had over 1 million followers on TikTok and Instagram
    Thakur’s final TikTok video, which was posted on November 18, showed the influencer walking in crosswalks in New York City, with a cryptic message
    The caption read: ‘YOU’RE in charge of your destiny. Remember that’
    Thakur’s parents have not revealed the cause of their daughter’s death

    Read more: Thakur had anxiety-induced heart attack just FOUR MONTHS ago

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11493949/TikTok-star-Megha-Thakur-21-dies-unexpectedly-just-days-posting-cryptic-message.html

  7. Fast Eddy says:

    Next Covid-19 Strain May be More Dangerous, Lab Study Shows

    “A South African laboratory study using Covid-19 samples from an immunosupressed individual over six months showed that the virus evolved to become more pathogenic, indicating that a new variant could cause more illness than the current predominant omicron strain.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/next-covid-19-strain-may-be-more-dangerous-lab-study-shows/ar-AA14zJ9Z

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I will believe it when I see it. More dangerous variants tend not to spread very well, especially if they kill quickly. What is needed to spread widely is a lot of people, walking around with the virus, but not realizing that they have it.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Except for Marek’s… and Marek’s did not have the tail wind of the CDC shoving billions of doses of a leaky vaccine into people while the pandemic is ongoing.

        That was a no no with flu — never done — cuz of the risks of a Marek’s type outcome …

        Rule One – you do not mass vaccinate during pandemics with leaky products.

        It can end in catastrophe.

        Oh f789 it.. let’s just do it anyway 🙂

  8. Deaths From Substance Abuse Rose Sharply Among Older Americans in 2020
    Roni Caryn Rabin
    Fri, December 2, 2022 at 1:49 PM
    Deaths due to substance abuse, particularly of alcohol and opioids, rose sharply among older Americans in 2020, the first year of the coronavirus pandemic, as lockdowns disrupted routines and isolation and fear spread, federal health researchers reported Wednesday.
    Deaths from opioids increased among Americans age 65 and older by 53% in 2020 over the previous year, the National Center for Health Statistics found. Alcohol-related deaths, which had already been rising for a decade in this age group, rose by 18%.
    This is a hidden population that is often ignored,” said Dr. Frederic Blow, a professor of psychiatry and director of the University of Michigan Addiction Center.
    Blow said that comparatively few older Americans go into treatment. Families and spouses are embarrassed, and health care providers tend to be less aggressive about referring older patients to rehab, he added.
    Fast Eddy …sems you are correct…
    fraying of social networks and shutdowns during the first part of the pandemic exacerbated substance abuse, just as access to cannabis and alcohol increased — one could order drinks or cannabis over the phone and have them delivered to one’s home, Blow said.
    “When you add that to feelings of loneliness and isolation, of feeling at the end of the world in some ways, it became an impetus for people to start using more than they ever had in the past,” he said.
    © 2022 The New York Times Company

    This guy Blow has the right name

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Isolation. Lack of children to support the older folks.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Despair… is a good thing… when the goal is extermination.

      They welcome death.

      Panic and Despair is a bad thing – that’s why we have the Ukey War.

  9. Vern Baker says:

    https://www.rintrah.nl/population-wide-immune-deficiency/

    Rintrah/Radagast continues the theory….

    “If people are then eventually reinfected, the antibody response is effectively entirely IgG4 dominated, which doesn’t trigger inflammation and so the infection becomes effectively silent, you don’t really notice common cold-like symptoms. IgG4, as an anti-inflammatory antibody that doesn’t activate complement and poorly binds to the Fcr receptor fails to bring the viral load down to zero. The virus eventually damages the cardiovascular system, resulting in a sudden unexpected death.”

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      A quote from the Population Wide Immune Deficiency Post

      What’s happening is pretty simple: Vast swathes of the population are stuck with a poor vaccine induced immune response to SARS-COV-2. Those people are constantly spreading the virus, preventing the development of herd immunity.

      • reante
        reante says:

        Their intelligent bodies are repeatedly trying to have their secondary/seasonal detox and can’t, and that creates a positive feedback loop for an amplified biospheric ‘cold/flu’ virome in highly vaxxxed countries, reinforcing the body’s intelligent need to detox, which it isn’t able to do, properly anyway. The time between attempts to detox gets shorter and shorter. Fracking industry dynamics. There’s no more mark to market valuation on an exosome, because too many of them have negative value, . The Red Queen Effect takes hold. The healing complex needs to run faster and faster just to stay in the same place. The toxic trauma builds.

        The key is clean, wholesome living. Nuturing the daily detox; giving it everything it needs. Cherishing life. The primary/daily detox is more than powerful enough to keep you well. There are religious overtones at play –prophecy to fullfil — with this early Feathering of theirs, of the population bottleneck: the meek shall inherit the earth. The holistically healthy unvaxxxed and the better-late-than-never vaxxxed who see their mistake and sufficiently humble themselves to their sublime 4B year old intelligent bodies, by redoubling and quadrupling their efforts shall inherit the earth.

        • Excellent comment, reante. Also, I’ve appreciated your contributions pointing toward a new health paradigm centered around detoxification.

          • reante
            reante says:

            Thanks AK. Appreciate the encouragement.

            We’re familiar with the pattern of disinformation that the more they officially debunk something on Google, the more true it likely is. Look up Dunbar’s Number and you get a series of debunkings along with an actual lengthy paper of genius by Robin Dunbar which hardly anyone is going to open lol. Look up GAPS diet and it’s the same thing. Articles on how dangerous it is and articles by female disinfo agents (so as to avoid the appearance of sexism) discrediting her by shooting the messenger’s making of money (like Norm did with Zach Bush). Look up antivax claims, same thing. Etc.

            Same thing with detoxification. Look up detoxification and you get results saying that no such thing exists! Absolutely batshit insane, as if the industrial toxicity that we all know exists in the world has little to know bearing on disease, or as if the resolution of all physical traumas our bodies have ever sustained isn’t a toxic dynamic, because our dead tissues are inherently toxic to our living tissues. Yet most of the people reading this right now still have to get over the brainwashing that detoxification is just a marketing ploy by ‘holistic health practitioners’ just trying to make a buck. Well, iI IS that too. Of course it is. EVERYTHING gets coopted by industrial capitalism. Leave no stone unturned.

            But just because something gets coopted doesn’t mean it’s not true.

            The mainstream view of health is so fucking distorted. it’s all Woody Allen mperialist paranoia over imaginary germs, zero ecology, and no personal responsibility. Surprise
            surprise.

          • Xabier says:

            I find it interesting, too: every 1-2 months, regardless of season, I experience non-stop sneezing like a heavy cold which lasts from approx 4am until the evening, and rarely goes on any longer.

            It has often occurred to me that it might be some kind of natural and beneficial de-tox. I would never seek to ‘cure’ or suppress it for that very reason.

            The problem with the bio-tech freaks is that they see our evolved system as ‘defective’ because we fall sick, age, and inevitably die.

            They are certainly far from’meek’, too.

            • reante
              reante says:

              Hey X. That’s a really interesting pattern. It sounds like you’re in a great rythmn with it. Fast and to the point. Reliable. Safe and effective. It’s certainly a respiratory detox mode.

            • Ed – I am interested in energy issues.
              Ed says:

              I have been sneezing a lot this fall. Nothing like it before.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      And that would be why they have opened borders… they want the Pro Vaxxers to be reinfected.

  10. Fast Eddy says:

    …… wait…. wait….. now

    BAM:

    Australia suffered 15x more Excess Deaths in the first 7 months of 2022 than it did in the whole of 2020

    https://expose-news.com/2022/11/26/australia-15x-increase-excess-death-2022/

    Let’s ram this one down norm’s throat

    https://i0.wp.com/expose-news.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/image-289.png

  11. Russian oil production is up, OPEC+ production will likely come down further, and oil prices will remain over $90.

    USA and EU clearly have no control over oil production or price, and them pretending otherwise seems to be no substitute.

    > Russia Boosts Production While OPEC+ Considers Deeper Oil Output Cuts

    Reuters survey: OPEC produced 710,000 bpd less in November than in October.

    Russian crude production and exports jumped in November.

    The supply side in oil markets is becoming increasingly complex in December with the possibility of new OPEC+ cuts, an EU embargo on Russian seaborne crude imports, and a possible cap on Russian crude prices.

    With only 3 days to go until the EU ban on Russian seaborne crude imports gets implemented, Russian oil producers are going against all expectations and have actually ramped up production in recent weeks, according to some accounts. On October 5th, the group of oil producers known as OPEC+ agreed to cut production in November by 2 million bpd, ignoring calls from the U.S. to pump more crude to keep prices palatable for consumers. The proposed cut came at a moment when OPEC+ deemed it necessary to cut production to stabilize crude markets in the face of wavering global demand this autumn.

    One month later, the actual results of the proposed cuts are beginning to roll in. According to a Reuters survey, actual OPEC production in November amounted to 29.01 million bpd, some 710,000 bpd less than in October. The heavy lifting, according to the survey, was done by Saudi Arabia, which cut its November output by 500,000 bpd compared to October.

    Even though, according to Reuters’ data, the group has over-complied with its output cut target, the data does not include Russia, nor any of the other producers beyond OPEC-13. Going completely against expectations, Russia, which, according to its own official figures and to data from energy intelligence firm Kpler, actually ramped up production in November.

    Viktor Katona, an oil analyst at Kpler in Vienna, confirms that “Russian oil producers have been doing what counters the main narrative, namely they have been ramping up output.”

    In advance of EU sanctions coming into place next week, Russia produced 10.9 million bpd in November and has increased exports to China, India, South Korea and Japan last month. Despite poor consumption data in China, Refinitiv Research data shows that Asia imported a record 29.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in November, compared to 25.6 million bpd in October and 26.6 million bpd in September.

    Even though Asian buyers haven’t joined the G7 oil price cap proposal, uncertainty about the future supply of Russian crude, and the ability to finance and insure Russian crude cargoes have sparked concern among Asian importers.

    Indeed, uncertainty is the keyword in energy markets in December. With the Russian seaborne crude oil import ban around the corner, a potential OPEC+ output cut on the table, and ongoing discussions about capping Russian oil & gas prices, the supply side of the market has become even more complex.

    Starting on Sunday, the OPEC+ meeting, which many expect to result in an unchanged production quota, could still yield a bullish surprise. Roughly one week before the meeting, unnamed sources reported to Reuters that they expected OPEC+ not to take additional action to support crude prices while the EU was in the process of discussing a cap on Russian crude, but just two days before the meeting, an increasing number of pundits and analysts are expecting OPEC+ to cut production again to address weak demand in China.

    Jeff Currie, global head of commodities at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC that OPEC+ had correctly predicted the demand decline in November and that the group will discuss the ongoing weakness in demand in China at the upcoming meeting, stating that “there’s a high probability that we do see a cut”.

    Tamas Varga, an analyst at broker PVM Oil Associates, said in a note Thursday that oil prices below $90 per barrel are “not acceptable” for OPEC+, and that retaliatory measures from Russia could also have a bullish effect on crude prices in December.

    While it’s increasingly difficult to predict the course of oil prices in early 2023 accurately, it’s almost certain that crude markets will remain tightly supplied in the foreseeable future, even if Russian crude continues to flow to end-consumers.

    Whether Russian crude supply will actually drop significantly in December and in the first months of the new year, and whether EU-U.S.-G7 sanctions will prove to be successful remains to be seen. Moscow has taken a leaf out of Iran’s sanction-skirting playbook and has worked over the course of the last 9 months to set up a new offshore logistics network, featuring ship-to-ship transfers and crude-blending operations to make sure its crude keeps flowing to global consumers.

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Russia-Boosts-Production-While-OPEC-Considers-Deeper-Oil-Output-Cuts.html

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      We will have to watch this closely. Rising prices will adversely affect economies around the world. If Russia cuts off oil exports to Europe because they have added this cap, it seems like Europe would be particularly badly affected.

  12. LOL @ EU.

    > EU reaches deal to impose $60 cap on Russian oil exports

    EU member states have agreed to implement a $60 ceiling on global purchases of Russian oil after Poland dropped its objections to the long-debated deal aimed at denting the Kremlin’s fossil-fuel revenues.

    Warsaw had delayed agreement on the cap after demanding a lower ceiling to further erode Moscow’s income. Its backing means the bloc will have the initiative in place before December 5, when a ban on imports of Russian seaborne oil into the EU comes into force.

    However, Russia has said it will not sell oil to any country participating in the cap, and India and China have so far not said they will implement it. Russia is expected to rely on tankers prepared to operate without western insurance.

    US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen, one of the forces behind the price cap plan this year, welcomed the agreement and commended Washington’s partners in the EU, saying the deal would “help us achieve our goal of restricting Putin’s primary source of revenue for his illegal war in Ukraine while simultaneously preserving the stability of global energy supplies”.

    https://www.ft.com/content/5b942b07-01cc-4e12-b803-7eb1507f6eec

    • Jan says:

      Could the hidden goal be to ramp up prices that need to rise to keep up production?

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Indirectly, it seems possible the price cap will increase the oil prices that American and Saudi producers get, at least for a while (before recession and debt defaults bring it down).

        • tomsplaything
          Fred says:

          The whole thing is schizophrenic and suicidal. The green agenda is trying to kill FF e.g. investment in exploration is discouraged, yet there is no viable replacement.

          Calhoun’s “mouse utopia” experiments are now coming true for humanity as self-annihilation, infanticide and gender distortions become commonplace.

          See https://www.naturalnews.com/2022-11-28-calhouns-mouse-utopia-experiments-are-now-coming-true-for-humanity-self-annihilation.html

          • Withnail says:

            The whole thing is schizophrenic and suicidal. The green agenda is trying to kill FF e.g. investment in exploration is discouraged, yet there is no viable replacement.

            The media continues to pretend that fossil fuels are incidental to the economy when in fact they are the economy.

          • Chevron (NYSE:CVX) CEO Mike Wirth said Friday that he does not expect another oil refinery will be built in the U.S. ever again, due to decades of federal government policies.

            “We haven’t had a refinery built in the United States since the 1970s. My personal view is there will never be another new refinery built in the United States,” Wirth said in an interview with Bloomberg.

            “You’re looking at committing capital 10 years out, that will need decades to offer a return for shareholders, in a policy environment where governments around the world are saying we don’t want these products,” Wirth said.

            “At every level of the system, the policy of our government is to reduce demand, and so it’s very hard in a business where investments have a payout period of a decade or more,” according to Wirth. “And the stated policy of the government for a long time has been to reduce demand for your products.”

            Folks, isn’t it odd that no new refineries have been built since peak conventional oil arrived in the United States?
            As the late T Boone Pickens stated the obvious,
            The Continental US had been explored and drilled to the extent of looking like Swiss cheese, Why build new refineries if there’s no oil to be found?
            Has nothing to do with the Green agendas.
            That’s a smoke screen to hide the fact we are on the downslope of the Energy ladder.
            We don’t want the common peasants to panic now and cause mayhem in the streets…do we now?
            So, we’ll just pretend …when shortages arrive and we have stagflation, rationing, government mandates, we can BLAME something or somebody.
            Like Gail has pointed out here tim and time again..we won’t run out…it just won’t be worth the trouble to get it out…
            Yes, Sir, reality strikes at any time.
            Enjoy today because the handwriting is on the wall for all of us tomorrow.
            Now we are shuffling the chairs on the Titanic as been posted here many times before.

      • Adonis says:

        I believe that is the hidden agenda along with rising interest rates because then they can drop the rates if energy prices start deflating too much if rates were not risen then interest rates would already have gone past the zero bound ie negative interest rates and the fed definitely dont want that every move we are witnessing is to keep the system alive which is good news for now .

  13. Student says:

    (Splash – Marittime news)

    A very interesting article about the coming price cap for Russian oil.

    The real economic and energy war is about to start now…

    ‘Tankers ready for new trading map as Monday’s Russia ban looms’
    […]
    ‘With just this weekend to go until crude tankers enter a whole new world, the noose is tightening around Russian oil exports.
    Members of the European Union have agreed on a $60 a barrel price cap on Russian seaborne oil – a concept first developed by the Group of Seven (G7) nations. The price cap is part of wider sanctions kicking in on Monday.ì
    […]
    ‘“Market players manage to evade sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan oil through ship-to-ship transfers, illicit tanker trade, and crude blending. Refiners and other buyers will probably find ways to beat the proposed requirements for trading Russian oil. They may seek letters of credit from multiple banks or use several subsidiaries to document deals at the approved price, while paying more in reality. The oil market is full of clever, rapacious people with strong incentives to bend or break rules. If the price cap is imposed, economic theory will collide with the messy reality of the market,” Cahill said.’

    …Plus details about problems with China and Turkey, plus an interesting map…

    https://splash247.com/tankers-ready-for-new-trading-map-as-mondays-russia-ban-looms/

    It will be interesting to see how this complicated story will play out.

    • Hi Student…Joe Blogs gave some info a week ago

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=04PrQqwmI

      Russian Oil Disaster – No Ships to Transport Oil to China & India as European Ban & Price Cap Loom

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        This seems to be a better link for the video.

        He figures that if the embargo works, India, China and Turkey will need to take up the slack, if Russian exports to European countries decline.

        Russia seems to need about 110 more vessels to transport oil the longer distances to India, China, and Turkey. It seems unlikely such ships are available.

        Joe Blogs thinks there will be a big hit in revenue for Russia, because of the price cap and the lack of availability of ships to sell the oil. It will sell a smaller amount of oil at a lower price.

        ——
        Some thoughts: Russia will not sell oil to Europe with the price cap. For the world ex Russia, there will not be enough oil to go around. Perhaps world oil prices will rise. Russia will sell to the non-European countries it has sold to in the recent past, but at a higher price, so Russia will be less badly hit by this than Joe Blogs is expected. European countries will not be able to afford what oil is on the market, so it will be especially hard hit. If there are parts of the world that can tolerate a higher oil price, they will do less badly. International travel and trade will fall. The world will head into recession, more than is has already. Debt defaults will be an issue. The world financial system will be adversely affected.

        Maybe others have other ideas.

        • It looks like Russia has assembled several hundred tankers, which would seem to be plenty by all accounts.

          “European registries report exodus as owners seek ways to continue moving Russian volumes…. Nearly 400 oil tankers have been sold to unknown buyers or newcomers to the sector since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in a sign of a potential shift in control of the global fleet.”

          > Oil tankers with unknown owners being amassed to ship Russian oil, Bloomberg reports

          October 23, 2022·1 min read

          Christian Ingerslev, the chief executive officer of Maersk Tankers A/S in Copenhagen, which operates a fleet of 170 ships, told Bloomberg that “If you look at how many ships have been sold over the past six months to undisclosed buyers, it’s very clear that a fleet is being built up in order to transport this.”

          According to shipbroker Braemar’s estimates, these 240 ships have had a history of assisting sanctions-laden petroregimes in continuing their oil exports – many of the tankers, including some of the 102 Aframaxes, 58 Suezmaxes, and 80 very-large crude carriers, were involved in shipping Iranian and Venezuelan crude just last year.

          Moscow isn’t only relying on a a shadow fleet to export its oil – according to Bloomberg, Russia will also be making increasing use of ship-to-ship transfers on the open seas: a result of the sanctions risk from handling exports directly from Russian ports and the need to collate a few small cargoes onto larger tankers for long-haul shipments.

          https://news.yahoo.com/oil-tankers-unknown-owners-being-094500296.html

          > Hundreds of ‘unknown’ owners take control of tankers

          European registries report exodus as owners seek ways to continue moving Russian volumes

          2 December 2022

          Nearly 400 oil tankers have been sold to unknown buyers or newcomers to the sector since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in a sign of a potential shift in control of the global fleet, according to research for TradeWinds.

          The 393 sales represent 43% of the deals since the invasion on 24 February and the start of an upheaval in the oil trade that sent secondhand prices soaring and propelled tanker rates to 18-year highs, data from VesselsValue shows.

          Unidentified or new tanker owners can be an indication that newly purchased vessels are switching to trades involving sanctioned Russian oil after the 5 December embargo on Russian crude imports imposed by the European Union.

          https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/hundreds-of-unknown-owners-take-control-of-tankers/2-1-1362123

          • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
            Gail Tverberg says:

            Good point!

      • Withnail says:

        Hi Student…Joe Blogs gave some info a week ago

        I don’t trust this Joe Blogs person. The lights will stay on in Russia. The trucks and tractors and harvesters will run. That is what matters.

        I think Russia will be able to survive even if they export no fossil fuels at all. I can’t say the same for Russia’s customers if exports cease.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      A person wonders, too, what role China will play. This article says, “Russian shipowners are facing refusals from the Chinese authorities and companies regarding the recognition of insurance documents.”

      • Withnail says:

        if a country needs oil and someone has oil they want to sell, a way will be found.

        • Student says:

          The whole story is rather complicated.
          My impression is that if Russians found a way to accept the collapse of Soviet Union, they will not find a way to accept the collapse of Russia anf they have various dangerous ways to fight this attempt.

          • Withnail says:

            Russia is just about the only place that isn’t on the verge of collapse.

            They would survive with a good standard of living for longer if they stopped exporting fossil fuels, uranium and metals.

            We need them but they don’t need us.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              “We need them but they don’t need us.”

              Good point!

            • banned says:

              What seems to be at stake is a world where there is trade. The $60 oil cap seems to be a attempt to limit trade but not end it in a way that hurts Russia. It signals that regardless of the military outcome in the Ukraine the economic conflict will continue. Basically it has been declared Russia can not trade but we can. China and India go “whatever” but now it becomes clear that it was a lot easier trading with Europe than transporting to India and China.

              Yes if trade ceases totally Russia is better off. What this perspective does not encompass is the reality of maximum power principle. Isolation is defeat. Everyone scrambles to try to define the trade networks left inclusively in ways that are non kinetic and exclude with the same.
              EU $60 cap- excludes Russia
              Russia BRICS++ – inclusive settlement.

              It appears “Winning” is defined by being the most inclusive and extensive trade network while creating exclusion to trade networks for the adversary. Whether this paradigm is valid is unknown but this seems to be the path the “leaders” have chosen. The paradigm is truthful from the perspective of maxinum power principle. If one evaluates the model NS presents mystery kinetic events will accompany and enforce the non kinetic events with strong risks of escalation/apocalypse. Its a long way from Russian oil fields to China and India. IMO shenanigans of the most deplorable and illegal sort are inevitable.

              I think what some people hope for (me) is movement toward peaceful stability of some sort. A resolution of some sort. Unfortunately that appears extremely unlikely to me. The kinetic actions in Ukraine will continue. Russia will finish the job in Bakhmut and Kramatorsk. Longer range precision weapons will continue to be provided to Kiev. The kinetic actions within Ukraine will continue move out to the mystery kinetic exclusion activities.

              Economically we enter a recession not seen before in our lives. The decline in energy use per capita is the absolute physical economic law rescission causal that economic theory denies as the gorilla in the room. The conflict becomes a hope that something breaks systematically in the adversary that creates a resolution of victory. The gap between desired outcomes is too large and the pain that would create in a peaceful resolution insures the fight will continue. Like a MMA fight it goes to the ground. Flashy moves end endurance and technique are necessary for continuance.

              Unfortunately unlike a MMA contest the adversaries both have extremely sharp karambits and will draw them should skill or conditioning fail them. I see little justification for my hope for movement toward peaceful stabilization and resolution. As long as BAU continues we are still in a relatively attractive time even as we nose dive into the worst recession of our lives unless by some miracle both parties embrace a commitment to resolution regardless of pain.

              A literal miracle is necessary and I do not deny the possibility of its occurrence. Conflict will not provide a resolution karambits will be drawn and thus the ground fight with karambits sheathed is a very desirable time period even if standard of living is lessened from the time we knew before. One of the fighters fights dirty eyes and balls are not off limits and that ensures karambits will be drawn. Until karambits are drawn a miracle is still possible so this is a desirable time.

  14. Fast Eddy says:

    Switzerland, Facing an Unprecedented Power Shortage, Contemplates a Partial Ban on the Use of Electric Vehicles

    It turns out that you can have battery-powered cars, or you can have renewable energy, but you can’t have both.

    https://www.eugyppius.com/p/switzerland-facing-an-unprecedented

  15. Fast Eddy says:

    Japanese Emeritus Professor at Kyoto University, Dr Masanori Fukushima, Blows Up Over the Covid-19 Vaccines and His Government’s Covid-19 Response.
    He speaks to the world: “this vaccine was scientifically misconceived”, “the harm caused by vaccines is now a worldwide problem”, “billions of lives could ultimately be in danger.”

    https://supersally.substack.com/p/japanese-emeritus-professor-at-kyoto

    We need to start digging massive trenches… to prepare for the Big Cull!

    • No worry, we have other hands in the pot to ensure mass dieoff, Eddie.
      Crop failures, nuclear war exchange, financial meltdown, government collapse leading to civil riots, not to mention the obvious..energy shortage with unhygienic infrastructure…just to.mention a few.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The cumulative death chart of under 65 year olds shows a “bend upward” when this group started getting vaccinated. Something is quite wrong.

  16. Russia and its allied forces are reportedly making major advances on all fronts right now, although Russia itself is saying nothing.

    > Russia, massive missile strike. Macron meets Biden. Putin scolds Scholz

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Things keep getting worse and worse for Ukraine.

  17. Rodster says:

    So is this the reality of EV’s, who would’ve thought?

    “Switzerland Considers Electric Vehicle Ban To Avoid Blackouts”
    https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Switzerland-Considers-Electric-Vehicle-Ban-To-Avoid-Blackouts.html

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      California has had to do something similar.

  18. Fast Eddy says:

    It just never made any sense to this cancer specialist who has extensive experience in immunology and vaccine development as well. Now, treating cancer patients at the frontline, he is shocked and dismayed by what he is seeing – and not just in his patients but in relatives and friends too. This includes rapidly growing and fulminating cancers, recurrences among people long cured or in remission from their cancers which, in some instances, had been gone 25 years or more. These cancers are occurring among vaccinated individuals, and in Professor Dalgleish’s opinion are being triggered by the booster injections.

    https://drtesslawrie.substack.com/p/no-more-boosters-says-top-cancer

    • ivanislav says:

      Whenever someone makes fun of anti-vaxxers, I join in gleefully in humiliating them! There’s nothing more indulgent than pressuring others into self-destruction!

      (joking of course)

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I would like to see aggregate data supporting this assertion, not just the opinion of various individuals.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Keep in mind the people who hold the data lie… remember the DOD database that showed massive spikes in a wide range of diseases — the DOD responded to the leak by amending the previous years much lower numbers increasing them to come in line with the leaked numbers…. and insisted that someone made a mistake in those other years…

        Hmmm… the DOD monitors the health of its fighting force very closely – and they made massive mistakes in their counts over multiple years…??????

        The data cannot be trusted. The front line oncologists and pathologists are all we have… and so far there is no reason to think they might be lying.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          It is a strange world we live in today!

        • reante
          reante says:

          Right on Eddy

        • Xabier says:

          Moreover, Theresa Long, the US military whistle-blower, was doing health checks on the most expensive human assets, aircrew and special forces, not the dime-a-dozen infantry, who are utterly disposable in all armies.

          That the military should, at the highest level, tolerate damage to these personnel, and order a cover-up, tells us what is afoot and the depth of the conspiracy.

          • reante
            reante says:

            Yup. When it runs that deep it requires Full Spectrum Dominance. Nothing short of that will do. Full Spectrum Dominance is the type of dominance that a bus driver has over the bus’s operations. If the bus driver drains the engine oil from the oilpan by pulling the plug, there is no bus service that morning, or the next morning. In a Finance Capitalist Global Civilization, global, privately-owned money is the engine oil, the lubricant.

            It’s a permanent hostage crisis. We learned that very obviously from the bank bailouts of the GFC.

            Right Norm?

            • privately owned money is the lubricant, certainly.

              but maybe your thinking to too short term

              all ‘money capital’ depends oil oil supply–the kind that runs the engine, rather than lubricating it.

              there was ‘lubricating capital’ around in1929, but it was vast amounts of ‘moving oil’ that kickstarted the engine of the economic system.

              without that ‘moving oil’, the ‘lubricating capital’ would have stayed where it was.—doing nothing.

              we are in the same situation now.

              but with one difference. The lubricating capital is there,, but the moving oil isn’t.
              With nothing to move the engine, the lubricating capital will wither away to nothing this time.

              This why our current situation isn’t a repeat of 1929.
              Or any other ‘depression’. With the GFC of 08/09, we still had the last dregs of cheap oil available. Now that’s gone too.

            • reante
              reante says:

              Have you also noticed that buses have oilpan plugs and drivers with opposable thumbs? I always leave my plugs fingertight as intimidation tactics don’t you? Daily reminder to those steel horses of whose boss.

  19. Fast Eddy says:

    No more boosters, says top cancer doctor

    Professor Angus Dalgleish says the Covid booster injections worsen cancer and increase risk of cancer recurrence. Full conversation out this Sunday.

    https://drtesslawrie.substack.com/p/no-more-boosters-says-top-cancer

    Followed by norm explaining the Joys of Boosting and Life as a Professional Vaxxer.

    Exclusively on NOF.com

  20. Fast Eddy says:

    The Honest CovIDIOT

    Fast and MF are having dinner in Arrowtown last night … get to chatting with a couple of Real Big and Fat folks at the table next to us…

    Fast asks the wife — did I not see you in the NZ Plough Hog Olympics a few years ago? Or maybe it was on the Sow Breeding Finals of the Gore Regionals?

    Oh no – we are Austral-ean. From Melburn. We just like to eat – never entered any contests. Ah I see…. you sure have one hell of a caboose on you – you missed your calling.

    Anyhow they’d had a fair bit to drink so the lips were flapping (loosely)… and somehow the discussion veered in a dangerous direction… they tell Fast that they have a friend who had to go to hospital in QT and they were not allowed to visit ‘because of the new wave of Covid’…

    I was not aware of this new wave… or the restrictions… I mention that last year I brought my mate who had heart issues and was not allowed in ….

    Heart issues .. the husband says — lots of people with heart issues these days huh… Fast is thinking… is that code for ‘The Injections are Death Shots and Let’s have a Laugh at norm’s expense’….. so Fast says – ya seems to be a thing – I have 4 mates with heart problems of recent… healthy people.

    The wife makes the universal symbol of the MOREONS and feigns jabbing a syringe into shoulder.

    Yes .. yes… Fast nods knowingly…

    But all is not as it seems — they have both had FOUR SHOTS!!!

    But they seem to have semi-woked… but yet they have had 4 and I sensed they still feared covid even though they’ve both had it (they get two flu shots each year – one for the winter season down south another for Europe if they travel there… bit believers in injections)

    They do not believe the Covid injections do much of anything though (having been told they’d not get Covid) but then there are the side effects… the wife has had heart palpitations and high BP (unresolved).

    But the husband … he said that soon after his first shots he was out for dinner and a large blood blister formed in his mouth… like a massive blister… he went to the doc — Not the Vax (NTV).. is subsided… then it came back …

    Then after his booster he developed sepsis — he had not cut himself or injured himself — yet he was feeling very sick and had to undergo heavy antibiotic treatment. He asked the doc WTF – how did I get this? Just unlucky the doc says… unlucky? yes unlucky … could it be the vax NTV!! NTV NTV!!!! Hmmm ok unlucky (sepsis is on the list of Fizzer side effects – Fast pro vax hockey mate also developed sepsis)…

    Then this guy admits that he has developed high BP and even when resting his heart is racing — rapidly beating — then … wait for it…

    He says you know — I was healthy — but since taking these shots I have not felt right … I just don’t feel good. Something is not right.

    Something rather odd — he said that he has been to the doc to try to work out what is wrong with him … and the doc said he ‘tests show he has has high levels of covid throughout his body’… I asked him what he meant by that … and he was not sure… that’s just what the doc said… this is what the tests are showing…

    He definitely blames the vax …

    I left him with this pleasant thought — we both have zero injections – it was like they’d seen a white whale – no injections … no injections at all? no injections none… still waiting for those long term studies I says.. ah yes… true — they did rush this through rather quickly says the wife… yes … and the thing is … wait for it I said… they were hanging on their seats

    We both had covid … and it was like a cold or mild flu.

    Badum Tssssss…..

    Let’s ask Hoolio what he thinks of this :

    https://i.postimg.cc/VkSw3cg9/Hoolio.jpg

  21. Washington Post
    Officials fear ‘complete doomsday scenario’ for drought-stricken Colorado River
    In the 23rd year of the Western drought, Lake Powell’s once crowded boat ramps end in sand. Dirt bikes roar across newly exposed shores. Exquisite arches and rock formations, lost when the reservoir filled in the 1960s, are re-emerging.
    As the water has receded, so has the ability to produce power at Glen Canyon, as less pressure from the lake pushes the turbines. The dam already generates about 40 percent less power than what has been committed to customers, which includes dozens of Native American tribes, nonprofit rural electric cooperatives, military bases, and small cities and towns across several southwestern states. These customers would be responsible for buying power on the open market in the event Glen Canyon could not generate, potentially driving up rates dramatically.
    The standard rate paid for Glen Canyon’s low-cost power is $30 per megawatt hour. On the open market, these customers last summer faced prices as high as $1,000 per megawatt hour, said Leslie James, executive director of the Colorado River Energy Distributors Association.
    “That will be very financially damaging,” said Bryan Hill, the utility manager for Page, one of the cities that relies on the dam’s low-cost hydropower for one-third to half of its electricity needs. “Huge, for everybody. For businesses. For single moms. It will be a financial hardship.”
    Glen Canyon’s electricity is important for the nation in other ways. The dam is what’s known as a “black start” facility for the country’s largest nuclear plant, the Palo Verde Generating Station in Arizona. This means the dam could bring the nuclear plant back online if it shut down and needed to restart.
    In September, Glen Canyon sent about 80 megawatts of power to California for three hours at the height of its record-breaking heat wave, helping the state narrowly avoid rolling blackouts. It was the second time in the past few years that the dam has been called on to ramp up during emergencies threatening the electric grid, said Adam Arellano, an executive with the Western Area Power Administration.
    “Those emergencies would probably happen more frequently without Glen Canyon Dam just because there’s such a small margin of available electricity during those rally hot days,” he said. “That’s a very big thing.”
    When Martin began working at Glen Canyon eight years ago, the drought had already taken a toll on the lake, but he never envisioned a day when the turbines might stop spinning.
    “Everybody that works here, your focus, your mission, is to keep these units either running or keep them available to run,” he said. “So if you came into a powerhouse and it was quiet, that would kind of go against everything you’ve dedicated your career to.”
    Being forced to switch to the four smaller bypass tubes would instantly cut the dam’s capacity to release water by two-thirds. If water levels and pressure fell further, these pipes would quickly lose the ability to deliver the millions of acre-feet of water the lower basin states consume each year, the Glen Canyon Institute wrote in a report in August on low water scenarios.
    “That dam is just not capable of delivering water at lower levels. It’s going to create huge problems for the Grand Canyon,” said Eric Balken, the institute’s executive director.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Wishful thinking went into initial hopes for the dam. The water levels of the past are not necessarily the water levels of the present and future. The benefit of any dam is temporary. We also know that the supply of water tends to be quite intermittent in California, from month to month and year to year.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Looks worrisome!

      • Bobby says:

        Of Water

        What effects water supply more is simply demand. if you have more end users the capacity of an aquifer or catchment in it’s entirety diminishes at a faster rate.
        Demands fluctuate regularly with seasonal and diurnal patterns (over the year and the day night cycle).

        The only sensible controls are to ration water, (charge more for it) have efficient systems to preserve it, restrict it’s use, monitor it and diminish losses. In the natural world total control of water is something beyond human intervention.

        Achieving some measure of control takes infrastructure and the energy to construct, monitor, maintain, and power that infrastructure. Network infrastructures also have a peak efficiency, pressure requirements and a limit on the rate at which water can be extracted or transported at any given time.

        The amount of useful work that can be done by the energy used to extract, supply and treat water, conserve it and provide it as a resource for irrigation, waste and potable water is diminished as that energy supply becomes constrained and the network is expanded to meet demand. The speed of consumption in an average town is underrated. A typical free standing reservoir can be drained in as little as thirty minutes at peak demand by a population of fifty thousand.

        Both water supply and the useful work that can be done by energy to get the water to where it is needed, are also diminished as both resources are spent to meet increased demands and water gets harder to get. Thus, economies of scale fail in the end as they require a system to have more throughput to remain efficient and water is always a limited natural resource.

        This all gets a bit scary for water engineers, who know that when water supplies fail or power for pumps stations is unavailable, the first infrastructure to literally start rotting is the sewage networks. Sewage can never be left stagnant without irreversible negative outcomes.

        These are the exact realities that people (and politicians in particular) want to put out of mind and out of site.

        In terms of human health, disease is always just one blowout or pump station failure away. Typical infrastructure is usually past it’s optimal date and becomes increasingly inefficient. Therefore entropy and human nature takes hold and never lets go.

        Using water to generate power is either a win win, when the resource is in abundance, or equally a lose lose when it is not.

    • Rodster says:

      While many blame this on climet change, no one dares mention the weather modification programs which has been going on for a long, long time.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Other users take water from the Colorado River, as well.

        And the studies of the past used to justify the investment are based on a particular time period. It is my understanding that a particularly wet time period of 50 years or so was used for many of these studies.

        • Jan says:

          Changing solar activity can affect river levels as well.

          The lesser solar wind leads to more cosmic radiation that become nuclei of reign clouds.

      • Withnail says:

        While many blame this on climet change, no one dares mention the weather modification programs which has been going on for a long, long time.

        There are no weather modification programs.

        • drb753
          drb753 says:

          Yes. specifically, it takes too much energy to modify the weather. I am sure they tried… if they could, why has Russia just beaten all crop production records? It’s not like they like Russia…

          • reante
            reante says:

            I agree regarding weather mods. To your thinking on declaring weather wars on Russia – obviously Russia would consider that an existential threat wouldn’t she? So it’s a non-starter.

            And I disagree further. They DO like Russia. She’s one of the biggest jewels in the crown. Look how well they’re treating her right now. Giving her more land, and inflating the value of her resources. Nevermind the deep recession the common folk within her borders are experiencing, and the increasingly totalitarian political climate, and nevermind the cannon fodder

            • drb753
              drb753 says:

              Indeed they have given 98 billion dollars to Russia so it can defeat Ukraine. They are ensconced in Kiev and giving surrender orders all the time. And they would never thing of drafting 59 years old guys.

            • reante
              reante says:

              The ROTG state that you have to make it look real. That’s why it’s called the Matrix. It’s second-order (subconscious [body as leading indicator]) effects of the animalian mind can be so powerful that we can consciously see through it — see it for the manufactured Matrix that it is, and loath it — but still be psychologically owned by it lock stock and barrel, to the point where some of us outside of the Matrix come all the way back round to the same ontology that we see the sheeple inside the Matrix have come to – belief in a simulated reality. Because that belief helps numb the pain. By suppressing the symptoms that heal, by dissociation. I was a jock in high school but I was a crossover figure. Like Randall Pink Floyd in ‘Dazed and Confused,’ lol, I also hung out with the goths because they had the instinctive wisdom not to numb the pain with fake-ass Matrix bullshit. We were just kids adrift, though, so none of us had the wisdom to know how to heal the subconscious pain beyond living in it with each other.

        • tomsplaything
          Fred says:

          Try this discussion on climate engineering to modify your understanding.

          https://jermwarfare.com/conversations/dane-wigington-on-climate-engineering

          • reante
            reante says:

            Thanks Fred. Chemtrailing notwithstanding. They’re definitely doing that for global dimming. Although it’s much less in my neck of the woods since the plandemic. Seemed to stop altogether for a while. But creeping back in recently.

        • Rodster says:

          Of course not. I was just joking and the United Nations were just joking when they banned weather modification and weather warfare programs.

  22. I live in South Florida and in the last week alone had TWO very young solicitors knock on my front door to inspect my roof…now I know why…

    Here’s the point people may not want to hear: Homeowners in Southwest Florida and elsewhere in the state are partly to blame for what many call a national embarrassment. According to insurance companies and prosecutors, property insurance companies are being bled dry by homeowners, roofers and lawyers who file frivolous and even fraudulent claims.
    Dishonest roofing companies—not all of them are, of course—knock on doors to convince homeowners to let them inspect their roofs for free. The roofer finds a little damage but tells the homeowner they will convince their insurance carrier to pay for a completely new roof. The roofing company has the homeowner sign what is known as an assignment of benefits, or AOB, in effect signing over the insurance policy to them.
    When the insurance company refuses to pay, the roofer, armed with a homeowner’s AOB, sics a lawyer on the insurance company. When the insurance company caves or loses in court, it pays the company for the new roof and the plaintiff’s lawyer’s fee. The lawyer often adds a fee multiplier that can double or triple the award the roofer receives.
    “When a homeowner or contractor wins a property claim lawsuit, the courts are allowed to award what’s called a fee multiplier on top of the claim payment,” Friedlander says. “All of this extra money goes to the plaintiff’s attorney, and the insurance company is on the hook for all of it.”
    How big a problem could it be? “One attorney alone has filed 10,000 lawsuits against insurance companies in Florida,” Friedlander says. “They make millions and millions of dollars on these cases.”
    The painful process has been replicating itself for decades around Florida, including Friedlander’s neighborhood.

    https://www.gulfshorebusiness.com/attempts-to-fix-floridas-failing-property-insurance-market/

    I also had one point out a law that car windshields that are broken, defective need to be replaced…mines fine and yet the guy thought otherwise!
    There are also commercials for cast iron drain pipes that need replacing by lawyers covered by home insurance.

    We are in trouble..not to mention the slip fall accident ambulance chasing commercials 24 hours a day

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      When a young person (trying to earn some money on a summer job) came up to me and asked about a roof inspection, I called the company that had put my roof on, and asked them what the story was. They said it was almost certainly a scam. There have been no hail storms in the area. The roofing company was happy to send someone out and inspect my roof. They found no problem. They said that the metal flashing would also show dents, if there had been a hail storm. There was no evidence of dents, anywhere.

  23. Dennis L. says:

    Didn’t read the article, only the headline.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eu-testing-legal-options-use-frozen-russian-central-bank-assets-ukraine-reconstruction

    So the “assets” are seized, they are tokens representing the real assets, not the real assets. If gold, so what, Russia can mine more, if a yacht, the repossessor loses trying to fuel it, store, it, maintain it even scrap it. The list goes on, the backing stuff to the asset claims is in the ground and there are some combat hardened men with an old fashion belief in God strengthened by an orthodox church( a group, always a group) who have other ideas. An old hymn from my youth comes to mind, “Onward Christian Soldiers.” Is there a comparable tune for a “woke” army?

    We are trying different societal ideas, one will eventually win more or less and all the pontificating regarding that which fails will fall on deaf ears.

    Interesting times.

    Dennis L.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Good points!

      Actually, I think in this war, there is a bouncing back and forth from two positions.

      1. Pleasing everyone, even the non-workers, is helpful from the point of view of getting re-elected. It also helps keep “demand” high, and thus the price of commodities high, but with a high population denominator.

      2. Adequately compensating those who are actually doing the work now is helpful for keeping the economy operating. This approach will likely reduce the compensation to the non-workers, and ultimately it is likely to lead to earlier deaths of these non-workers. With the smaller population as a denominator, it is possible that the price of commodities can remain high enough for at least some continued production of commodities, including food.

    • “Russia (solid, aggressive (group, Orthodox religion))”

      The Russian Federation is a multi-ethnic and multi-religion society that seeks to work well with other societies of whatever ethnicity or belief/ value/ political system. The Russian position is pretty similar to CCP in that regard, and they leave religion, values and political systems to other countries, and they do not wage wars or make geopolitical ties on that basis, which seems to be a Western thing a la the Arab Spring &c. They seek a multipolar, diverse and functional world, in contrast to the dominational Western unipolar model.

      Orthodox profession seems to have declined from 50.3% in 1998 in Russia itself (data from research held by the Russian Ministry of Education in 1998) to 41.1% in 2012 (as below). Profession may have had a bounce in the immediate post-Soviet climate as people looked for ideological certainty in politically uncertain circumstances.

      No religion, no particular religion and undeclared combined stood at 43.6% in 2012. I am not seeing any more recent data. Russia seems to be confident enough as a society that it does not really stress about religion, and it is more interested in making its society and its international relations work.

      > Religion in Russia (Sreda Arena Atlas Survey, 2012)[1]

      Russian Orthodoxy (41.1%)

      Other Christians[a] (6.3%)

      Muslims(6.5%)
      Neopagans and Tengrists[c] (1.2%)
      Buddhists (0.5%)
      Other religions (0.7%)

      Believers, but not adherents of any particular religion (25.2%)
      Atheists (13%)
      Undeclared (5.5%)

      > The Sreda Arena Atlas was realised in cooperation with the All-Russia Population Census 2010 (Всероссийской переписи населения 2010), the Russian Ministry of Justice (Минюста РФ), the Public Opinion Foundation (Фонда Общественного Мнения) and presented among others by the Analytical Department of the Synodal Information Department of the Russian Orthodox Church.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Russia

    • Withnail says:

      So the “assets” are seized, they are tokens representing the real assets, not the real assets. If gold, so what, Russia can mine more, if a yacht, the repossessor loses trying to fuel it, store, it, maintain it even scrap it.

      Yes I think this is spot on. The assets that matter are the oil, gas and coal that continue to come out of the ground. Russia has those, Europe doesn’t. Europe in reality is extremely poor and Russia is extremely wealthy.

    • reante
      reante says:

      It’s the very definition of catabolic collapse. Capitalism eating itself in order to survive another day. Carefully removing the big toe in order to eat it. Those Euros are just as good as any other Euros. In fact they’re better. They’re disclaimed/unclaimed! A ponzi schemer’s dream come true. It’s the new rehypothecation for central banks: that’s getting awfully close to unsecured lending if you ask me.

      That part about being returned with interest pending a peace deal was a good one.

      It’s all part of the HTOE.

  24. Dennis L. says:

    Assets, inflation/deflation.

    Without a human, an asset is valueless; humans differ in their ability to use assets. At the extreme, one man can take a factory and use it to make widgets, another can take the same asset and turn it into scrap metal.

    Make these “men” into a group and there is trouble, resentment, anger, and basically overhead, or war of a sort.

    The man who makes scrap will make a club, the man who makes objects will make a gun, game over for the club maker.

    The factory asset has depreciated due to wear, but perhaps some is left, otherwise it is the metaphorical Packard plant in MI.

    Wealth is sentient man’s ability to take “stuff” and make it into useful stuff, make life easier and much more interesting. At its most basic, sex on black satin beats sex in the mud, ie. hunter gather. The women move to the sheets, the men left behind are left to each other.

    So what is wealth of value to hold? Children. They are portable after a given age, they are teachable, have enough of them and there are men to spare to keep peace in their world; the rest can teach, build and dream, and self replicate, in satin sheets if done right.

    Dennis L.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      “So what is wealth of value to hold? Children.”

      I think you are right. People who die childless need to depend on other relatives when they decline in old age. Or, they can hope governments programs and money saved up can help them (perhaps with long term care insurance, too). But the result is not the same, especially as resource go down.

    • D. Stevens says:

      Changing laws about assisted exit will take care of all the childless adults when they can no longer care of themselves. In the meantime more schools will be turned into senior centers and apartments.

  25. “‘Demand for solar panels is through the roof'” (BBC News)
    https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/demand-for-solar-panels-is-through-the-roof/ar-AA14OfUa?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=eddc014563c14eeab181d6a92888a693

    “South Africa turns to solar to help stop power cuts” (BBC News)
    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63741041

    On & on it goes — government-financed schemes to try to get power grids running on such as wind/solar (private, voluntary funding for such things seems to be lacking — who wants to invest in it, if it’s never yet worked, anywhere in the world it’s been tried?)

    • D. Stevens says:

      “…East African countries including Tanzania, fellow solar energy firm Zola Electric has a solution to power supply that ignores national grids. Instead of connecting solar panel farms to nationwide power systems, it wants to create independent “mini-grids” for villages and other communities…”

      The article talks about both grid solar and micro/home grids for more rural areas. I like the idea of small independent solar installs but without BAU I don’t see how any of this can be maintained. Panels, Inventers, Charge controllers, Batteries.. it’s all very dependent on international supply chains.

      As for grid tied solar does that do much to help blackouts if there isn’t storage? Demand is higher during the day so maybe it helps keep industrial and commercial activities going but heavy industry usually runs 24/7. I’ve read different things about if solar captures more energy in it’s life span than it takes to manufacture it.

      A solution or last desperate acts before collapse?

      • drb753
        drb753 says:

        Possibly sufficient for refrigeration, if a suitable thermal ballast is adopted (something like diluted windshield liquid, freezing at -19). Not at all a general solution but it is something. Food is important.

      • Decades ago I attended a presentation by someone involved in providing electric to rural communities in South America, Chile perhaps. Remember, because there was no power grid to these remote areas, stand alone solar units were practical for limited access to lighting and maybe refrigeration.
        He was very enthusiastic and dedicated young man. Did not follow up with his group, but some out there have the best intentions for good.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          Solar power, captured in this manner, might provide a little lighting and power for charging phones. But I would not possibly expect them to operate refrigeration. Refrigeration requires an inverter, operating 24/7/365. Wind supply is an on-again, off-again type of supply. It can be low for weeks or months on end, but provide at least a bit for charging phones. Refrigerators are practically never used by people with intermittent electricity supply. Too much food gets ruined by power outages, for one thing.

          • drb753
            drb753 says:

            The secret is in storing thermal, and not electrical, energy. That can be stored in large amounts for long periods of time.

          • At a rental cost of $1 a day, users are able to sell more fresh produce
            Nnaemeka C. Ikegwuonu has already received many awards for his pioneering invention ColdHubs, which use transformative technology to tackle several problems at once. — reported GoodNewsNetwork.
            Some 6,000 tons of fish are harvested daily on the rural Nigeria side of the Niger Delta, however, due to the tropical climate only 2,000 tons of fish are sold fresh. The story is the same for fruit and vegetables, which can survive on average a maximum of only two days in the West African heat and humidity.
            Designed specifically for off-grid areas, ColdHubs employ rooftop solar panels to generate enough electricity to power the units in all weather conditions, while providing reliable 24/7 autonomous refrigeration. This cuts down on spoilage, but also leads to much higher profits.
            For example: a bag of fresh bonga fish should fetch between $20 and $40, however, without cold-storage facilities, fishermen either sell the same bag for much less to avoid spoilage, or they smoke or dry the fish and sell it days later—while accepting much less due to the higher value and demand that fresh fish commands.
            ColdHubs currently serves 3,517 farmers and fishermen. The company has so far installed 24 Hubs, saving over 20,000 tons of food from spoilage, and employing 48 women to service the refrigerators. At a rental cost of $1 a day on a pay-as-you-go subscription model, users can increase their income by being able to sell more fresh food.

            https://www.brightvibes.com/these-solar-powered-fridges-are-changing-lives-in-nigeria/
            Formerly an agricultural radio host, Ikegwuonu grew up on a farm and understands that food spoilage is a major impediment to farmers’ livelihoods.
            ColdHub fridges can extend the life of fruit and vegetables from two to 21 days. This increases vendor and farmer profits by 25% on average, says the company. It also increases entrepreneurial energy among the users, as literal days of their life are freed up from having to spend time buying, sourcing, shipping, or throwing away extra produce.

            Ikegwuonu won the 2020 Waislitz Global Citizen Disruptor Award and its $50,000 cash prize, which he says he will use “to build two ColdHubs in two fruit and vegetable markets, saving 3,285 tons of food from spoilage yearly, increase the income of 200 users, and create four new jobs for women.”
            Ikegwuonu told Global Citizen., “Tackling food spoilage is important because, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), it is estimated that a 10% reduction in global food loss will result in an 11% decrease in hunger, and a 4% decrease in child malnutrition worldwide.”
            “In Nigeria, a 35% reduction in post-harvest tomato loss alone would [impact] vitamin A deficiency for up to 1.1 million children per day,” he added.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              I know that when we visited Palestine, restaurants did not have refrigerators because of the intermittent electricity supply. They certainly could use such devices.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I always wanted to go to Palestine on Safari… there are packages that you can book out of Tel Aviv where you do in with a military unit … they seek out children then taunt them… the kids throw rocks … making them fair game

              And you get to shoot as many as you like. Afterwards the mopping up operation starts and they gather up the bodies… you get to choose one to be mounted on a pic of wood — and you can take it home for a trophy.

              I had a mate who did this and he said it was so much fun

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Solar is particularly ridiculous in the UK with a lot of cloudy weather and no need for air conditioning. It slightly provides some supply in summer, when demand should be low; it adds virtually nothing in winter. Indirectly, it leads to more disparity between winter and summer natural gas imports. Without storage, this is a problem.

      • Jarle says:

        > Solar is particularly ridiculous in the UK with a lot of cloudy weather and no need for air conditioning.

        Same here on the west coast of Norway but that didn’t stop a local dimwit from covering his roof with those useless things. Wish I could laugh about it but it’s just sad.

      • Saint Ewart says:

        U.K. , Bet Julius Caesar’s estate agents took him here in Summer…‘it’s just like Tuscany ..loads of tin, practically undefended, check it out!’…if you were trying to evolve into a warm blooded mammal , you wouldn’t start here.

        But more seriously. Colleague in wet west Cornwall , installed modest battery, inverter, 4.5kWp solar rooftop and grid tie. Trying to use everything and logging it. 2 older adults, modest mid terrace, 1980s bungalow, reasonable insulation. Dumping excess into underfloor coil.

        Sent me results for November . Not bad. From Grid 103kWh, to grid 0.3kWh, from solar 103kWh. Consumption (non UFH)…179kWh.. mild November.. but not too ridiculous.. most demand is for heat of course , IMHO (as an architect) I think the place needs sealing more, and far far more external wall insulation, along with addressing any cold bridges.

        • Withnail says:

          He’s contributing to destabilising the grid and accelerating its collapse.

          • saint Ewart says:

            We all are. and were all screwed. So what? He using 103 less despatch-able kWh than otherwise in November, half the load, buffering peaks and troughs with batteries held on site.
            …. Issues with grid and misnamed renewables are legion, moslty unresolvable but I’m here for the discussion. Demand side peaks and ‘renewable’ peaks are mismatched and addressing this is important. can be done by reducing population by about 90% too.

            • Withnail says:

              No, most of us aren’t contributing to destabilising the grid.

              What battery setup did your friend install? How much storage?

            • Saint Ewart says:

              I believe them to be 2 x 3.5kW units each 74aH. . Exporting 0.5 kW in a month is hardly destabilising the grid? care to clarify?

            • JesseJames says:

              solar is useful (for those who can afford to install it) as an intermittent supply. In sunny, hot areas…it can power air conditioning in the afternoon, a time of large demand. (such as in Texas) and in that one lonely instance, it can help the grid.

              Battery BU is good (again, only if you can afford it) but it is very expensive to store more than 20 kWhr.

              I know this well..I have 12kW of solar in my pasture and 20 kWh Batt BU system…location…Alabama)

              Other than the one benefit mentioned above…it destabilizes the grid when subsidized, and subsidies in effect have become a gift to the upper middle class. (ex. a doctor friend earning $400K in Austin who said all the solar system subsidies “paid” for his swimming pool.)

              England is a miserable site for solar…the latitude being so far north,…it is virtually worthless (unless you can afford to splurge on it)

            • Saint Ewart says:

              the data doesn’t lie. 103kW solar supplied and used , 103 grid imported. .5 exported. in November in the western U.K. a modest set up for a small housing unit for pensioners, costing less than a crappy second hand small ICE car. No subsidy. Since nothing exported unless you count 0.5kW in a month as a critical factor, like Withnail appears to. Batteries good for thousands of cycles. This isn’t too utopian is it?

              it’s miserable, being so far north? I quite like it., especially coming up to xmas. what data do you have to support that?

            • JesseJames says:

              I’m not sure I understand your question….”what data do you have to support that?” What data are you questioning?

    • Dennis L. says:

      So, if one purchased solar panels when they were in excess supply along with cheap energy what now?

      It would seem one has an asset which has a salvage value at its end of use possibly greater than original purchase price and makes “energy” at a price greater than when purchased for a greater return on investment.

      Contrary investing? Was it recommended or suggested on this site when there was a surplus of supply? I didn’t see it, so money not invested then now has a depreciated value as it is, well, money. Money invested in solar panels which everyone knows are not a “solution” has grown in value. Those that have gets or some sort of old parable.

      Dennis L.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        The salvage value of solar panels isn’t much, I don’t think.

        Moving them to a new location is expensive. They present a pollution problem at the end of their lifetime.

        The value of the solar panels only exists to the extent that they can be used within some system. Will people be willing and able to buy them for use in a home system, without a big subsidy? Who will be the buyers, as part of a commercial system?

  26. postkey
    postkey says:

    “With the latest increase in the personal consumption deflator at 6.2% (in the year to September), it is clear that real money balances (i.e., the increases in nominal money adjusted for the rise in prices) are being squeezed. Despite the bounce in US share prices from early November lows, the medium-term message has to be further and intensifying strains in balance sheets, and more weakness in asset prices. A major downturn in house prices, and a wider recession, are inevitable. The accompanying video shows that the contraction in real money balances now being experienced is the most severe since the Volcker double-dip recession of the early 1980s. The monetary environment is radically different from that little more than two years ago. Is it necessary to recall that the US economy was jolted by an increase in M3 money of over 18% in a mere four-month period, from February to June 2020? That rate of increase in four months would – if maintained for a full year – have generated a Latin-American-style increase of almost 66%!”?
    https://mailchi.mp/525cc5a407e3/which-economic-thoughtcomes-out-best-from-the-last-decade-1336671?e=260ed9002a

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This is from a letter from Professor Tim Congdon CBE, Chairman of the Institute of International Monetary Research, at the University of Buckingham to “fellow macroeconomists and monetary analysts,” published by the IIMR.

      The video he refers to (17 minutes) can be found at this link:
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39uVAUovhwk

      One slide by Congdon says:
      “A recession in the USA is certain in 2023, with money numbers suggesting it will be similar to that in the mid 1970s when real GDP fell 3.1% between Q4 1973 and Q1 1975.”

      One slide “Interest rates and real GDP: no relationship in the US data, from 1970 to 2019”

      He shows four charts with various versions of US money supply. One is

      Annualised rate of change in last three months,
      %, in US bank deposits in real terms
      Monthly values – October 2022 last value
      https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Annualized-rate-of-change-in-money-deposits-in-real-terms-1024×675.png

      It shows a huge jump in 2020, followed by a recent contraction.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Includes a great video. Concludes, “the age of ‘trust the experts’ is over.”

    • Fast Eddy says:

      norm… I’ll stop pi-mping SSS if you inform us what you think when you watch that marvy presenation

      • you are her sole fun–ctionary eddy

        without you, she would cease to exist.

        mind you–with a relationship like that, you might find she would prefer that.

        i have never had that problem.

  27. Miners who raised as much as $4 billion from mining-equipment financing when profit margins were as high as 90%, are defaulting on loans and sending hundreds of thousands of machines that served as collateral back to lenders. New York Digital Investment Group, Celsius Network, BlockFi Inc., Galaxy Digital, and the Foundry unit of Digital Currency Group were among the biggest providers of funding to finance computer equipment and build data centers.
    liquidity crunch hitting digital-asset markets after FTX failed comes as low Bitcoin prices, soaring energy costs and more competition weigh on miners. Loans backed by the computer equipment, known as rigs, had become one of the industry’s most popular financing tools. Many lenders are now likely facing substantial losses since they can’t seize any other assets besides the machines, whose value has dropped by as much as 85% since last November
    Bloomberg DavidvPan
    Crypto Lenders’ Woes Worsen as Bitcoin Miners Struggle to Repay Debt

    Remember, Larry is NEVER wrong about this stuff, NEVER!

    Sam Bankman-Fried On Managing A Team, Altruism, And His Legacy | Forbes
    66,125 views · 6 months ago…more
    Forbes Digital Assets

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tXDH46iNC64&t=173s

    This video is hilarious…how this guy got institutional investors???

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      He starts out: “Managing a team is easy when everything is going well. In fact, I was very good at that when the business was growing. But when the going gets rough, and team members cannot reconcile, I don’t know what to do.

  28. CTG says:

    There is the “truth” and the “inconvenient truth”. COVID-19 exposes it all and even on OFW, it seems that only a handful of people on OFW (or even perhaps in the world?) can take “inconvenient truths”.

    It is a coping mechanism for eople not taking, understanding or believing in ” inconvenient truths”. They need it to survive.

    There are various degrees (from low to high) on this coping mechanism.

    Norm and the masses (or collective) refuse to even acknowledge the most basic stuff like COVID, vax, 9-11, etc. Their coping mechanism shuts them immediately and refuse to even listen to a sentence. This applies to those who are highly educated at all.

    The next level (of coping mechanism) are those who knows that everything is wrong with COVID but refuses to even listen one work or sentence on “hoaxes and conspiracies” like moon landing, flat earth, etc. They will tell you on front “NO, I AM NOT GOING TO LISTEN TO THE FLAT EARTH THING AT ALL” and they will use their fingers to close their ears. As an educated person, why not give it a thought and listen to what others say? If they are wrong, you can refute them or just stay quiet. Is it wrong to get grant them 10 minutes to tell you something? Does it mean that you are biased against learning something new? It is like going to attend a seminar on “get rich quick” just to learn how they operate. You enjoy the food provided and learn how they operate but you just don’t invest in them.

    See, I have come to a conclusion “that is how humans operate”. Talk to those who are aware of the CONVID fiasco, you will know that everyone has a different coping mechanism and with this coping mechanism, there is just no way they WANT to learn the inconvenient truths. There are only a handful of people who have a very low or non-existent coping mechanism.

    Take my cat-in-the-roof thing. Family mentioned that it is not possible. It goes like this : Teleportation is not possible. No, we are not in a simulation and the cat cannot be put there by the creator of the simulation. Then, explain to me how it is possible.,well maybe there are some holes that the cat can go through, well there are no holes at all in the house… silence For me with no coping mechanisms, it is fascinating to see that many “impossible things” happen and the people just brushed it away

    Toba Supervolcano – trust all the literature? The same “lieterature” (sic) that said that COVID is dangerous and vaccines are safe? Trust the MSM saying that during the hunter-gatherer, the tribes can be as big as 100 people? No one questions that number criticially? If it is 10 people per tribe, at 7000 people left after the supervolcano, that means that there are only 70 tribes worldwide that they have to meet up and procreate? Read up on genetic defects on in-breeding.

    Seriously, the coping mechanism is doing great.

    Watch the old movie Truman Show. It is available on Netflix. We are in an inverse Truman Show. Instead of one person who is unaware, on this planet, it is only a few who are aware. See how “weird things” triggered Truman to find out the inconvenient truth and how sharp and critical thinking made him realise that everything is a charade (he does not believe his own MSM either). People surrounding him said “nah… what you see is nothing, don’t bother” but he felt that he needs to know the truth…

    • Fast Eddy says:

      The gnawing question is …

      Would norm be considered a circus animal – or a barnyard animal…

      norm what sort of technical training did you have to write Rayburn manuals?

      • eddy

        the prime training to write stuff like that, whether for the Rayburn or hundreds of other books is putting oneself in the mind of the person reading them, then eliminating everything where the question arises:

        No one could be THAT s -t -u -p- i- d surely ??

        then you stop and think—oooooooohhhhhh yes they could.

        so you write and rewrite, and illustrate and re-illustrate, with equipment much more dangerous than piloting a Rayburn. (they are designed for ultra-simplicity)

        Then you get the lowest common denominator down to the level of a 12 year old.

        and think—yep—that’ll do.

        Not knowing (bearing in mind my Rayburn stuff was 20 years ago) that one day that 12 year old would, unknowingly, come into my internet orbit, and I would be able to allow myself a self-pat on the back, and think—yup, I was right after all.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          I could see you being very proficient at walking in the shoes of a simpleton who needs to be shown step by step how to use this appliance… in fact it would be the perfect job for you norm … it’s almost as if you were born to do this …

          It’s second nature right?

          • absolutely eddy

            if you check your manual, and theres a left hand showing you how to do something–that’s mine

            i was brilliant at drawing left hands. A touch of Omar Khayyam I like to think.

            On the other ‘hand’ a surgeon made it onto our local news after salvaging an operators hand from one of my machines—he decided to operate the machine first and then read up on how to do it.

            it was supposed to be foolproof—but theres one born every minute, or reborn every morning, as your timeclock never fails to tell us. 8.01—Being on your mind the moment you get out of bed makes me feel a bit queasy eddy, i have to admit

    • drb753
      drb753 says:

      Some things are more reliable than others. The Toba volcano is believable. You do not want to believe things where a profit or geopolitical interest intervenes. If you wish, the science of 9/11, as presented on the New York Times, the science of vaccines, and the science of cholesterol (the latter underpinning the very profitable statin market), all share the same origin.

      Looking at the latter, there are sufficient papers not touching the main topic, to figure out what is going on. Papers directly addressing the main question (people with high cholesterol live longer than those with low cholesterol) mysteriously disappear into the memory hole, whereas limited papers (but those with high cholesterol die more often of heart attacks) receive tens of thousands of citations. In the memory hole, they are joined by many papers on vaccines on the impossibility of 9/11 videos.

      Toba does not affect markets or geo-political considerations.

    • CTG

      I know your basic outlook on our ‘existence’, and make no comment on it, either way. Your views are your own, you are entitled to them. They don’t affect me. I try not to be rude for the sake of it.

      Until——

      you see fit to bring me into your scheme of thinking (I would prefer not to be btw), then I feel I should respond, in kind.

      I have no ‘coping mechanism’.
      9/11 was an act of terrorism —it was not an ‘inside job’ by the CIA. Covid has been a virus wave, (they occur regularly), it was not created and released by a chinese laboratory to decimate the human race. Moon landings etc etc. (and on and on–oh not again).
      Not that this will shift your fixations one iota. You depend on them for support.
      As do many others. Why I have no idea.

      Having pointed those out.—I feel it necessary to ridicule your prime fixation that we, (humankind that is) do not exist at all, that we are in ways beyond our understanding (of course) part of a cosmic game, played out by superpowers in a celestial amusement arcade
      .(or something like that)
      You dismiss/ridicule the opinions of others, while expecting those same ‘others’ to accept such claptrap from you?

      ctg, having talked with you,—there is no doubt that you have a high intellect on a normal living/working level.
      Why you should waste that on such fatuous concepts is beyond me.

      You should be prepared to consider that none of the above notions came into existence until social media became available to facilitate them.

      • Replenish – Pennsylvania, USA
        Replenish says:

        This is a conversation with my Dad. I’m pointing out how Antifa and Proud Boys are 2 sides of the coin and all he wants to discuss is pink hair and ear-piercings. When I point out the ratcheting effect of the uniparty towards endless war, resource nationalism, big data and surveillance he switches off and gets defensive or He generalizes, deflects or ridicules with corny humor or obvious strawmen any idea of shared purpose or culpability for his party to fleece people.. unless I mention the Democrats and then he has no problem assigning blame and getting emotional. Any well-sourced investigative argument is Leftist or Alt-Right. Hopeless.

      • CTG says:

        Norm, you have lost your marbles and so do many in the collective. View yourself as part of the collective normal people and I as the outcast. Be happy about it.

        drb753… you still have faith in literature and scientific papers. I don’t because I used them often last time and I lost faith way before all these happen.

        It is destiny that only a handful of people will seriously question everything.

        • CTG

          ‘lost your marbles’ is the well known eddy defence when he runs out of verbal ammunition.

          everyone else must be ‘insane—mentally ill. and so on.

          I’m not the one who insists that we exist only in a celestial amusement arcade.

        • drb753
          drb753 says:

          I am also able to distinguish, in the medical and climate science fields, what is propaganda and what is useful. But it took years.

        • reante
          reante says:

          The operative word being seriously. Many people question everything unseriously because questioning everything seriously is the tallest of orders. Questioning everything unseriously leads to ‘flat-earthism’ and other self-imposed ontological distortions which are nothing more than rejections of the Matrix with a capital M for a personal mind matrix with a lowercase m. Doing that doesn’t break the cycle of abuse, it just perpetuates it. Indeed, little m mayrixes are clear evidence of the genetic imprinting of the cycle of abuse on well-meaning people. Knowing is half the battle.

          • everybody thinks themselves to be normal

            all the troubles of the would can be laid at that particular asylum door

            • reante
              reante says:

              At that Western asylum door ‘normal’ means existentially Fallen, which is the Judeo-Christian con. In truth it’s a long-running (agri)cultural problem not an existential problem.

            • reante

              i appreciate and digest most of your comments

              but i think that one takes today’s Oscar for nitpicking

            • reante
              reante says:

              Fwiw it wasn’t a nitpik at what you just wrote, though it was reflective of yours and others’ belief that we are a fallen species. We’re a species that has fallen terribly into a structural, mass formation psychosis (civilization) but we’re not a structurally fallen species in and of ourselves by any means. It’s a huge distinction that bears repeating.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              norm doesn’t believe in mass formation …

              he loves BBCCNN though

            • Thinking of ourselves as a ‘species’ inevitably reveals our truly unique situation, one in which we made what was perhaps an unconscious decision to place ourselves.

              we didn’t ‘fall’ into it, we embraced it eagerly, from the moment our anonymous ancestor hit a flint on dry grass and realised he could make fire at will.

              That single act underpinned our ancestors ‘structure’ as it underpins ours.

              But fire (eventually) consumes all it comes into contact with. But our modern ‘support structure’ (civilisation) cannot function without it. We are forced to find more to burn.
              We must burning to sustain our existence, but our source of that burning is finite. (whatever materials you care to use).

              A few million of our ancestors simply burned more trees. Eight billion of us have now reached the stage of burning the world itself. We still think of that as our ‘support structure’.
              Somewhere in Bush’s writing, he says (in effect) that our mistake was ‘civilisation’ itself. He also talks about the mistake of separating ‘god’ from the ‘earth’. (warning lights there).

              In other words, we are just a higher primate that discovered the means to extract more from the earth than was our entitlement.
              Gods and politicians tell us this is our destiny, but of course this is the ultimate lie.

              There can be no ‘sustainable economy’. Our consumption spree must come to an end.

              And with that end, your guess is as good as mine as to where we will be 1000 years from now, or if ‘we’ are to be part of that future at all.

            • reante
              reante says:

              Norm you have a nihilistic view of humans. Your view holds no space for true love (agape over eros). No space for ethics. We can know that we are ethical creatures because perceived FAIRNESS is the universal driver of all human social contracts. The only reason that THEY have been able to attain the levels of wealth inequality that they have is by generating a rising tide that floats all boats in combination with taking advantage of our pack animal brains (Dunbar’s Number) such that ‘sheeple’ are hardwired to value much more highly their fairness calculations that are based on ‘their 150 people’ IRL than they are the relative abstractions that are the rapacious elites they don’t physically know. Also in combination with the full spectrum dominant prison industrial complex of course.

              Cynical warning lights go off for you at the mere mention of romantic appeals to earth religiosity. That’s dissociative behavior. Animist warning lights go off for me at the mention of earthly religiosity because paganism is not good enough. We’re better than that. Animism is fully-associative behavior reflective of putting one’s heart into the embodied ecology itself rather than a partially-associative/dissociative pagan disembodied spirit in separation from the ecology but drawing inspiration from it. Pagan societies ran surpluses. Zach Bush also wants to run surplus with regenerative farming, hence his his neopaganism. The Third Reich elites were essentially green neopagans. Zach Bush disclaims civilization but does truly understand it for what it is structurally. That’s a common shortcoming. You truly understand it for what it is and animism is all that’s left, assuming one’s heart hasn’t been beaten to a pulp by the Matrix. And philosophical animism requires a stout heart, because none of us will ever truly get to live it in our lifetimes. That probably won’t happen til the third or fourth post-collapse generation. Animists are ultimately living for those who aren’t born yet, which is fitting, because that’s always been the quintessential animist orientation.

            • lol reante—
              a few misconceptions about me running loose there. Better reign them in before folks begin to think they’re real.

              Humans are a higher primate , we (think) we drew the lucky ticket in the evolutionary lottery of life. We didn’t. Microbial life did.
              We evolved to the stage of writing down our language. We used that to deceive ourselves still further with books that serve to reinforce our (dominant) delusions. We invented gods by the thousand, as required. They were/are always on somebody’s side.
              As to the Third Reich—Gott Mitt Unz was stamped their belt buckles, so lets get rid of the neo pagan notion shall we?

              We are ‘intelligent’ but only on human terms. Some of us are more intelligent than others, which means that the intellect needed to acquire capital is greater in some than others
              So some get rich, while most stay poor.

              The rising tide of wealth is directly and specifically linked to the rising tide of available energy in the ‘system’.
              This is clearly proven by the stasis of the ‘peasant’ society until the 17/1800s. A wealthy man was wealthy only by virtue of the surpluses of land he owned. Nothing else. He could not ‘extract’ from his land more than the input/surplus of muscle power.

              No agri-peasant society ran surpluses big enough to affect the basic stability of the world itself.
              Zach Bush may have some clever ideas, but farming represents only output relative to input. If you’ve only got muscle, that is very limited. Linking god to the soil isn’t going to alter that one bit. Like many of his kind, he sees humankind as becoming a mirror of his own intentions. Laudable, but delusional.

              After 17/1800, fossil fuel became the ‘rising tide’—nothing else. A few saw the rising tide and grabbed the biggest boats–Hence Rockefeller, Carnegie, Vanderbilt et al. They didn’t ‘generate’ the rising tide. They were opportunists.
              Study their history–they were cannibals. They stood on the fingers of those trying to get in their boats. Their ethics kicked in mostly after they died.

              Nevertheless, we all wanted what they delivered, and eagerly sold ourselves into the industrial complex they created.

              Gates, Musk, Bezos et al saw another rising tide. They grabbed it. Most of us got left behind—just like last time. Their ethics wont fully kick in until they are dead. (If they have any). We still gladly embrace what they deliver.

              I have as much a romantic connection/appeal to the earth as the next man. more in many cases maybe. But i do not delude myself as to the ‘survival’ mode that’s going to kick in when the going gets really tough in the next 10/20 years.

              Without surplus energies, the USA will not hold together as a cohesive nation…..Go figure that out.

              As to the ‘Matrix’ concept–i must dismiss that as nonsense.

              This perhaps sums up much of my thinking in this respect:
              https://extranewsfeed.com/the-life-i-stole-from-you-f609f8db6353

              Which in some respects fits in with your ‘animist’ view of me.

            • reante
              reante says:

              Bush does NOT truly understand it

            • yes—i read it a couple of times before i figured you’d lost a negative in there

              i do that all the time—no problemo

            • reante
              reante says:

              If my reflections aren’t true norm then you have nothing to be concerned about. Unless you think so lowly of this commentariat as to not trust their judgement in letting the chips fall where they may.

              Just wanted to drop this little enlightened gem of yours a second time:

              “Some of us are more intelligent than others, which means that the intellect needed to acquire capital is greater in some than others
              So some get rich, while most stay poor.”

              Ain’t that right kulm?

            • chips may fall as they may

              but toast invariably falls butter side down

            • reante
              reante says:

              Feel free to parenthetically insert “spectacular Debordian cultural” in front of “Matrix” anytime you see it, in order to see if that helps.

            • reante
              reante says:

              the toast was dropped face first, it didn’t just fall. What you said wasn’t anywhere close to a standalone comment, yet it was presented as one. Whole loaf was required to surround that statement.

            • OK

              lets follow up this matrix question

              Quote from your link (thanks)
              Degradation of human life[edit]
              /////Debord traces the development of a modern society in which authentic social life has been replaced with its representation: “All that once was directly lived has become mere representation.”[2] Debord argues that the history of social life can be understood as “the decline of being into having, and having into merely appearing.”[3] This condition, according to Debord, is the “historical moment at which the commodity completes its colonization of social life.”[4]///////

              written in 1967

              To Debord capitalism is an inherently uncreative system, which is quite correct of course,
              I must be missing the point of how this affects ‘my future’—we are certainly not going to socially evolve into a marxist utopia.
              Humankind just isn’t made that way.

            • reante
              reante says:

              I enjoyed your poem norm. Thank you.

            • thanks reante

              it seem to fit the context being discussed

            • reante
              reante says:

              Regarding the (spectacular Debordian cultural) Matrix, my intention with the parenthetical addition was to suggest you try making use of it in the future so as to better understand what I mean when I say the Matrix. When I say “the Matrix” I don’t literally mean the digital virtual reality of the Hollywood movie because that’s impossible. I mean it figuratively, and I use it (as presumably do others) in order to convey the high degree to which the Debordian spectacular society can control/limit the human perception of reality.

            • i hadn’t heard of Debord (thanks) so I followed through and read up on his ‘philiosophy’ if one might call it that.

              A marxist, but I’m not sure he had understood all that that meant in social terms,—more a dreamworld where everyone would be nice to each other

              Quote….////To be clear, Debord did not believe that new technology was, in itself, a bad thing. He specifically objected to the use of perceptual technologies for economic gain//////

              but of course, we function on economic gain. We cannot support ourselves on altruism. Life isn’t like that.

            • reante
              reante says:

              “but of course, we function on economic gain. We cannot support ourselves on altruism. Life isn’t like that”

              By economic gain he means the profit motive. He does not mean economic growth as regulated by Marxist ideology, which presumably he would’ve believed in as a Marxist.

            • reante

              a very tenuous point and i can see both sides of this discussion.

              to my way of thinking (debatable at best), his thread ignores entropy, and leans more towards fantasy.

              Entropy ultimately controls our existence, whether we admit to it or not—denial of it demands a ‘circular economy’ (best of luck with that).

              Growth, gain, profit—call it what you will.
              To stay one jump ahead of entropy, we must embrace those, in some degree, because we have adopted ‘civilisation’ rather than ‘hunter-gathering’ as our standard lifestyle.

              On that basis, paid employment, within an (uncontrolled) increasing population, requires the physical law of entropy.

              Your car, washing machine, TV–whatever, —will, by the laws of thermodynamics, wear out.
              My employment depends on that. As does ‘modern’ civilisation itself.

              I build the replacement, and that replacement must make economic ‘gain’, otherwise my wages could not be paid, i could not buy food, or support my family. My mortgage payment demands profit. The factory building ‘stuff’ could not sustain itself, because that too is subject to ‘entropy’.
              And so requires ‘profit’.

              But profit can only exist if more is made next year, than this year–or last year. Profit, growth, gain, by its very nature, cannot be static.

              The person who ‘owns’ the factory stands to make the most ‘profit’, because that is the system we have created for ourselves, over millennia. Some altruistic employers gift their factory to the staff–most do not. In any event, they must still show a profit.

              This is why the absence of ‘gain’ must remain a fantasy. Nothing to do with ‘marxism’ or any other political mantra.

              We are engaged in a game of commercial leapfrog of our own making—even though the last leaper will find himself going over Wile-e-Coyotes cliff, screaming that it was all somebody else’s fault.

            • reante
              reante says:

              Thanks Norm. Of course Debord ignored entropy. Marx ignored the ecology. We all know that. It’s a big part of what made Marx an ideologue. He had an industrial-grade imperial mind. He took the universal human desire for Fairness and weaponized it. Conversely, the Finance Capitalist ‘free’ marketeers took the universal human desire for Freedom and weaponized it.

              Debord was missing huge pieces of the puzzle but we also recognize that the Marxist thinkers were masters at eviscerating capitalism and capitalist culture, because for them it was an obsession just like eviscerating civilization is an obsession for the animist with an obsessive personality lol. I mean focused. A focused personality!

              The next-level of thinkers beyond Debord were the one’s who eviscerated industrialism altogether, both Marxist and Capitalist. Which as a non-economic cultural critique, is a more esoteric undertaking. Russian writers like Gurdjieff and Ouspensky. That’s where national socialism comes in as a politics, as informed by great agrarian minds that were forged in the fires of early industrialization.

            • reante

              Seems to me that all the great ‘thinkers’ did not have much ability to think outside their own close parameters…and just chose to ignore this or that.

              i think my tendency is to examine motives and actions in very simplistic terms, sometimes I think too that we look at radical world events with retrospective wisdom. (20 20 hindsight as we call it now).

              Debord came after Ouspensky–dont quite follow that thread. Maybe i misunderstood it.

              As to the ‘great agrarian minds’ re the early industrialisation, it was the farms that were gradually drained of manpower, because mines (energy extractors) and factories, (energy users/consumers) paid better wages year-round, rather than farms who had only an intermittent need for labour according to season.
              If you happened to be a landowner with coal under your land—that land quickly vanished under pitmounds. A ton of coal was worth 50 x a ton of cow. They saw it as ‘infinite prosperity’ of a new kind.

              It was a flow driven by mutual opportunity. Mines were dangerous, but at least they paid well. Same applied to the building of canals and railways.

              Not sure about ‘national socialism’, unless you mean it in the pre- naz zi context, Socialism–yes, but the problem with socialism is that it’s OK for ‘others’ to be ‘socialist.’.

            • reante
              reante says:

              I wasn’t ordering the Russians and Debord chronologically, I was ordering them (“next level”) in closer proximity to the truth than Debord. Industrialism is regressive compared to agrarianism and agrarianism is regressive compared to hunting and gathering or pastoralism. So the early-industrial greats were generally the greatest writers of industrial civilization because they’re were still fighting the good fight while there was still a fight. Tolstoy, DH Lawrence, Tolkein, in tbe world of literature also all fought against internationalist cultural mechanization. National socialism is the major politics that this anti-industrialist sentiment represented. Yes, pre- Third Reich. We could say that, most generally, national socialism is the traditional conservative agrarian, feudal guild system culture carried over into industrial civilization. Or retroactively grafted onto industrial civilization in the case of the Third Reich.

            • reante
              reante says:

              Which is why so many of the hereditary English landowners were sympathetic towards Germany in the 30s, until it became politically untenable.

    • sciouscience says:

      I always prick up my ears for a good Flat Earth postulate. The revelations about the person sharing are gold. Some are pure autist angels others are in camera sales.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Somehow, in our everyday lives, we have to get along with a whole lot of people who put their faith in any person who is presented to them as an “expert.” They assume that whatever is written on the front page of their local newspaper represents the only way of viewing the situation.

      This is frustrating.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      If you don’t have offspring and are into misanthropy … you become quite receptive to truths… preferably truths that make your dreams come true.

  29. Kim says:

    Questions often arise here in the comments as to the nature of The Powers That Be. We ask, what are their motives? Do they know what they are doing? What kind of future are they working towards? Do they have the general best interest at heart? Or are they all simply blundering fools?

    To determine this, we might also ask, what is in the hearts of the people who rule us? What inspires them? What is acceptable to them and what is not?

    As leaders, what do they regard as a good and proper target for their patronage?

    What do they regard as “art and culture”?

    And then when we find out, we might ask, are they simply insane?

    Perhaps, fellow commenters, we should stop thinking of them as “stupid” and face the fact they they are evil?

    The following link is definitely not safe for work.

    Seriously.

    https://strangesounds.org/2022/11/francois-henri-pinault-ceo-of-balenciagas-parent-company-owns-an-auction-site-selling-child-sex-mannequins-with-erect-penises-vaginas-and-anuses-instead-of-mouths-or-noses.html

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I expect that the people are not evil. They are looking out for themselves, and they probably believe that what they are doing will have benefits (of some kind) for mankind. Politicians want to keep order and to get re-elected, for example. The very wealthy may have other goals, including more wealth for themselves. They may want to reduce population, longer term, for example.

      • drb753
        drb753 says:

        People are both evil and not evil. Population reduction will happen regardless. The elites have a basic difference compared to regular people like your family or neighbors, in that they regard most of humanity as livestock (it is also specified in the religious book of the dominant ethnic group among western elites). That may be evil but it does not change the fact that the population is now going to decrease.

        MHO: let them (current elites) deal with this unsolvable energy problem. We have to be patient but all the perversion of values, crimes against truth and family, usury, construction of an alternate reality, will get punished and disappear along with the people most responsible for it. But this will be a secondary concern in the coming decades, perhaps at the level of climate change. The main concern is the end of industrial civilization. We should keep our priorities straight. Coping with the end of civilization comes first, second and third.

      • NomadicBeer says:

        “I expect that the people are not evil.”

        You are making a very weird but common mistake. You assume that other people are like you – this is called empathy and most of us have it.

        But there is an enormous amount of data out there, from history to psychology that shows that some people really are evil (technically psychopaths).

        Unless you are willing to deny history, biology and human nature you have to accept that psychopaths exist.

        So, why do you deny reality? I am not flippant, just frustrated. What will take to convince you of the reality? Have you watched any documentary on any genocide in the history?

        Sorry but I am at a loss for words. Are you that scared that you have to believe everyone is nice?

        At this point, I give up on humans…

        • nikoB says:

          It is a line most are not comfortable crossing. Acknowledging evil amongst us is too unsettling for most people. I don’t see that as bad but it does have ramifications.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          They are not evil – what is evil anyway?

          They are just acting in what they believe are their best interests.

          Hitler smashed the J-wes because he believed they sold out Germany in WW1… and they did… that resulted in the proud Germans being driven into near starvation … revenge with the goal to preventing a reoccurrence of this threat to their survival was a logical reaction …

    • banned says:

      Insanity and evil are relative. Take that homeless individual mumbling to themselves. We would generally consider them “crazy” but there actual actions are of subsistence. Now personally I think Its “crazy” to think money can be created infinitely and still purchase things in a finite world but i am a tiny minority and the majority feels otherwise. Are they “crazy” or am I “crazy”? Are majority opinions always ‘sane”? Is doing anything with your life besides chasing money, sex and status “sane”?

      Generally evil is defined by intuition. Something is known to be wrong on a level that includes logic but logic is almost secondary. In many cases what i would consider evil occurs where a certain logic or structure is given value over intuition. Many people dont feel compassion. What constitutes a psychopath can be identified by brain mapping. There are many. The vast majority dont commit horrendous crimes but they manipulate and feel no compassion. Often they could be considered “winners”. Evil is defined by society and punishment by the psychopath they have no intuitive feel based on compassion. the techniques involved in “growing up” largely involve suppressing childhood ability to feel compassion. Compassion is valued but only as a occasional action. In societal terms compassion rarity gives it value. When do we bring out the story of scrooge? At Christmas. The rest of the year it is the fortune 500 model we work toward. That conscious decision to discard empathy except on rare occasions is large part of what we consider to be a “adult”. The emergency alarm of compassion is suppressed emerging (hopefully) only at critical moments or brief chosen moments.

      A psychopath sees compassion as insane. THey do not experience it. They may believe in it but dont feel it. As an abstract compassion has value to a psychopath only as a rule in society to be obeyed for gain and punishment in actions that are guided by this phantom emotion. THe psychopath feels this silly imaginary compassion thing is unfair and insane and will often seek to ridicule it or engage in activities that negate it if they can be indulged in without punishment.

      THe conception of evil is a personal belief. My personal belief is evil often coexists with the absence of compassion although many causal s can be identified. Extraordinarily violent people are often subject to extraordinary violence. Sexual predators were often subject to sexual predation.

      What is the method by which our leaders are selected? Is the quality known as compassion a factor in that selection?

      IMO a acid test is occurring very very soon. THe ground in Ukkraine wil be frozen solid in a week. As I listen to the analysis of Ritter and Macgregor I am struck by one thing. Both these men have a deep belief that our leaders will not destroy the world. They believe our leaders are sane. The massive conventional military Russia has assembled will destroy the Ukrainian military and the USA will accept that defeat without resorting to non conventional weapons. THey understand that to destroy the world would be evil and they cant understand any of the leaders actions that have led to this precarious situation. Both represent the curious compromise of military men that I hold in such esteem. They are trained and efficient killers but have not discarded their compassion and are sane. They as trained military men understand that “winning” at any cost is insane. There are actions one does not take in combat. To do so would be dishonorable. They represent an attempt at man holding destructive power righteously. That they do not understand that their particular discipline in regard to this matter is far from universal is curious considering their obvious analytic capabilities. It is not a coincidence that neither men concern themselves with the recent events concerning emergence of sars cov 2 and the gene therapy injections.
      They believe that sanity is inherent in military decisions. Let us pray they are correct. tik tok

  30. moss says:

    Several days back I alluded to the outcome of a credit market collapse, a vortex into which currencies/asset prices/credit instruments gyrate against each other beyond previous measured records such that the chart would look like a seismic reading. It’s what happens in crashes down, but gyrations upwards can astonish also. OK I asked about post this, what the world might look like.
    We might or not have the internet vern suggested
    Fortuitiously, Prof Hudson online published

    “MH: The exponential mathematics of interest-bearing debt makes debt crises inevitable. That has been the case for thousands of years. The expansion path of debt is more rapid than that of the underlying “real” economy.

    “At some point, either debts will have to be wiped out – annulled – or countries will fall into debt peonage to the creditor powers, just as within creditor nations the economy is polarizing between the creditor One Percent and the increasingly indebted 99 Percent.”

    unz.com/mhudson/interview-with-almayadeen-tv-lebanon

    He’s suggesting the possibility of countries falling into peonage. Why would creditor powers stop at countries. Not corporations? Not individuals? Foreclosing on collateral is going to be the name of the game in a time of Toba event markets.

    Do we have any historians here of the aftermath of the Black Death, the 1340s period? European prices of labour shot straight up, and asset prices collapsed along with commodities. There was a UK/Euro/Med financial collapse from credit default on Venetian banks

    http://american_almanac.tripod.com/pbgbardi.htm

    Tomorrow morning, could sufficient control be maintained while collateral was seized and restructuring into a peonage was implemented? It’s certainly another alternative from ROF worth considering. The Roman Republic latifundia were reasonably at peace for many decades prior to 100BC

    So, agamemnon, do we dust off our copies of The Republic?

    dawn.com/news/1723773/govt-struggles-for-118bn-tranche

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      You ask some good questions.

      We certainly seem fairly close to a debt bubble collapse. With it would go an asset price collapse and probably a commodity price collapse.

      I thought the rise in the price of labor came after a significant die-off in the population. Labor became scarcer, so worth more.

      Countries are hoping that they can somewhat start over using their own digital currencies, instead, if there is a major problem with the debt market. This would allow control over the spending of individuals. (No spending if something not permitted is posted on Facebook, for example.) But I am doubtful that international trading would work. And adding new debt would likely be a problem.

      “Banned” suggested that Russia’s new approach would seem to be a new system based on a basket of currencies, weighted by resources, if I understood correctly. Such an approach might work, if debt is no longer treated as an asset.

      With respect to peonage, I suspect oil and other resources might be extracted from a country, to at least partially pay back debt. Debt is so absurdly high, though, it is hard to see that more than a tiny share of debt could be paid back.

      • moss says:

        It was my impression that the Black Death spread in a wave across Europe for east to west, having originated in the Wuhan labs of Gengis Khan. It was introduced to Europe through the Yuan entrepot at Trezibond on the Black Sea and carried all over the Med by the Venetians and although it spluttered about for centuries it was the initial wave that caused the massive dieoff

        Many, many, many countries don’t have the oil and other resources which I imagine is the reason the IMF is stitching up where it can debtor licenses, privatizations, labour impoverishment, so I fully agree Gail that “debt is so absurdly high, though, it is hard to see that more than a tiny share of debt could be paid back.” Maybe repayment is not the objective but seize the collateral. If they can crash the market prices they can sell it to their cronies for a song. Like Russia when Yeltsin took over. Dmitri Orlov wrote marvellously about this way back. And we all know who made away with all the money in that one.

        But there are other possibilities to RoF, and latifundia … Kulm suggests house prices will never go down and it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that the Fed, BoJ BoE SNB ECB all print out the wazoo and turn it into Weimar. Let everyone off the hook for their debts and send the lenders to the cleaners? Nah, can’t see it short of le deluge 1793

        • banned says:

          “Let everyone off the hook for their debts and send the lenders to the cleaners? ”

          On the face of it that would seem quite unfair. It seems unfair because money to a normal person represents a large part of their lifes time in effort. A debt cancellation represents a penalty for those that did not choose to accept debt. It is indeed a difficult question.

          I have known people to amass large debts declare bankruptcy only to quite quickly be given credit again and amass more large debts that they were incapable of paying. Not very moral in my opinion.

          Why does this occur. Its very simple. The money created does not exist prior to the loan. It is created at the time of the loan. The lender is not “taken to the cleaners” because the money did not actually come from anything they created in the physical world. Ultimatly all the lenders will end because its a ponzi. The means and results of the ending is what is the question

          If you believe in earning your way than you can not believe in debt based money. If we are to proceed to value based money debt based money must be forgiven. It has biblical basis if you believe in the bible. I am more concerned with getting ourselves out of this mess.

          Digital currencys are antithetical to any sort of freedom and liberty. To accept them so the lenders “are not taken to the cleaners” for money they created at a whim seems the most unfair to me. Debts dont necessarily have to be wiped. It does seem inappropriate that large benefit is reaped by those who chose to take debt. Whats important in my opinion is the switch to a value based currency. Perhaps those that have large benefit from debt can continue to pay but in a the new value based currency with the payments going to things that sustain the new system and work in toward a fair system. The lenders can find where they provide value not debt just like everyone else. That is call fairness. That is called justice. They are not criminals either. They were roped into a system that is criminal as most people are.

          If you believe that contribution should be rewarded not slothfulness (no free lunch) it is logical to acknowledge that a currency that is created out of thin air does not support that. We are unable to change the past. Instituting a fair value based currency now in addition to saving us from slavery or apocalypse is a reasonable compromise.

          Often we see things in absaloutes. We need to look after peoples basic needs. The systems structure needs to be just. Its pretty clear that the constitution framers realized that debt is often a tool of tyranny. There are solutions and middle grounds but change is coming we can take a active hand participate in the desire for a more sane and just system we see manifesting in the BRICs ++ currency basket or just accept are slave status as a function of debt. I have no personal debt. I paid off my first house in five years. It was a falling down shack but it still wasnt easy. I gain nothing from a debt forgiveness but I find slavery from a CBDC to be far more distasteful than debt forgiveness. The USA constitution states the nations fate lies in the hands of the people not the document. Our goverment has been taken over by the debt merchants. The debt merchants do not represent the American way in either concept or practice. I may not be keeping up on current events but last I heard slavery is illegal.

          • moss says:

            Some interesting discussion in threads higher on this page relating to the evil inherent in some individuals, and I think it applies to the dilemna as to the justice of sending lenders to the cleaner
            Perfectly just in my view. It’s all an illusory but enforceable construct in my view, and regard all speculation as social parasitism, as usurous as receiving interest at any rate. Personally, I would very much like to see a jubilee in my life.

            My “nah, not going to happen” comment was directed to the likehood of our dearly beloved Fed chairmain deliberately inflating through the wazoo and unjustly destorying the commercial banking system …

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      It strikes me that the new EU rules adversely affecting farmers are going to work toward disbanding the EU. There will be increasing dissent. More countries will want to leave the EU, ASAP.

  31. Some, like Withnail, may find this of interest, I did!
    How Much Were Gold Coins Really Worth During the Middle Ages?
    https://talesoftimesforgotten.com/2020/03/18/how-much-were-gold-coins-really-worth-during-the-middle-ages/

    People in Europe during the Middle Ages really did use gold coins, but gold coins were much rarer and much more valuable than they are often portrayed in modern fantasy games and novels. Daily commerce in Europe during the Middle Ages was conducted not with gold coins, but rather with silver and bronze coins. In fact, most ordinary people during the Middle Ages probably rarely even saw gold coins.
    ….people’s lives in the Middle Ages were so different from our lives today, it is hard to make comparisons in terms of purchasing power.
    The raw metal value of a Byzantine nomisma in modern United States dollars
    Some Byzantine aristocrats are said to have had thousands of nomismata. If my livestock conversion is correct and a Byzantine aristocrat had two thousand nomismata, that would be equivalent to something like $800,000 in today’s money. If my construction worker conversion is correct, then two thousand nomismata would be equivalent to something like eight million dollars. In any case, Byzantine
    aristocrats were definitely extraordinarily wealthy.

    ….

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Wow!

      • gold is often kept as a ‘store of wealth’ rather than actually used, because gold wears away relatively quickly.

        i had a few Victorian gold coins, about 130 years old. It was obvious they had never been ‘used’, but kept as a stash somewhere over all that time, and sold every so often.

        Eventually i sold them at a profit—now someone else has them stashed with the same motive as me.

    • Student says:

      People in the past were rich in another ways in comparison to what we consider today.
      For instance, I’ve recently read again the book intitled in Italian ‘L’Eneide’, which is the fictional story of the origin of Rome written by Publio Virgilio Marone around 50 B.C.
      In the preface of the book I chose, it is explained very well his personal story.
      He was extremely rich and for that reason he had the possibility to study a lot and make many travels, including going to Naples, Greece and North Africa.
      Thanks to his familiy he owned various farm properties from which he regularly received an annuity (from the selling of the various foods which those properties produced).
      He surely didn’t keep his money in a bank and I’m sure the physical flow of money he managed was relatively limited.
      At that time it was probably enough to have some gold coins which, when necessary, were changed with less minor ones in order to buy what necessary.
      The flow of money came on an annual way from his various crops.
      His properties of course included slaves and normal workers and also the possibility for him to live in different places without paying any energy bill, mortgage, debt.
      Just a reasonable amount of taxes.
      A particular aspect of his life is fun for people who know about Italian issues: his family was from the North (close to Mantova) and he was born there 🙂

      https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eneide

  32. Mac
    Agamemnon says:

    Sodium batter is less energy dense but maybe it’s more useful.
    The big question is how much energy does it take to produce alt energies?

    https://cleantechnica.com/2022/11/24/byd-may-begin-sodium-ion-battery-production-in-2023/

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      A bigger concern is how many weeks or months does the alternative energy have to be stored, to be truly useful. The scale of the quantity to be stored becomes enormous, if solar energy has to be stored from summer to winter to take care of winter heating needs. Even wind energy likely requires months of storage to smooth out supply. Loss of energy on the “roundtrip” is an issue as well.

    • Withnail says:

      This is all nonsense I’m afraid. There are no sodium batteries. There will be no sodium batteries.

  33. ivanislav says:

    Two pages back, Vern posted a preprint study that showed IgG4 levels increase dramatically with vaccination and particularly after the third dose.
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.05.22277189v1.full.pdf

    After a quick Google Scholar search for “Covid IgG4”, I find this publication from a year ago showing that absolute IgG4 levels and IgG4/IgG1 ratio both correlate with death in Covid patients.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8461218/

    This begs the question whether the vaccines and boosters will move patients into the high-risk pool as IgG1 and IgG3 levels drop post-vaccination (as paper 1 shows). Correlation of IgG4 with death does not prove causation, so one can’t draw certain conclusions. However, it does seem to be cause for concern, especially since IgG4’s tolerizing action provides a clear mechanism for disease enhancement.

    • Replenish says:

      “Repeated vaccination with the same nocive, highly inflammatory protein is inducing quite a few changes in the global immunological landscape, first, the B Cell responses in the vaccinated changed, and second, and most important of all. Their IgG class-switched from an inflammatory response to a less inflammatory one. This is still by far the most important piece of information in regard to what is to come, especially if there is a high expression of a certain chimeric Galectin…”

      https://hiddencomplexity.substack.com/p/immunity-imprinting-and-poor-new

    • reante
      reante says:

      IgG4 has a disease named after it. It’s called IgG4 disease, and the outcomes make it almost look like a terminal disease if I looked at the literature correctly. The higher the correlation the more likely the causation.

  34. laetitiavocatur
    All is Dust says:

    Here we go, this should put the chat amongst the pigeons

    https://m.twitch.tv/videos/1660073740

    JJ’s thesis is the powers that be are on a quest to collect as much genetic information from the human race as possible before our numbers start declining. This is based on his low infection fidelity model, where most virus particles are junk because of poor RNA copying. Therefore, there cannot be a mass infection coronavirus based pandemic as any RNA virus is a poor candidate for such an outcome. For example, he cites the 4 people who caught a virus in a bat cave in 2012 and they went on to infect precisely zero people. In other words, the whole pandemic was a con (which I am guessing most here know).

    All the best

    • D. Stevens says:

      Are they collecting DNA samples with the swab tests? I wonder how many did those. Think they were required for travel. Most people I know of use the home tests which are disposable. Not sure how vaccines fit into a covert DNA collection program. I was unable to watch because twitch is blocked for me.

      • laetitiavocatur
        All is Dust says:

        Either that, or they plan to do so in the future. I think his position at the minute is that they are just setting up the conditioning, with the view to roll out the data harvesting within the next 10 years.

        For me, it was the point that it isn’t possible for corona virus to be a global pandemic candidate – i still think it is about behavioural science and eugenics (as opposed to genetic information harvesting), but it was interesting to hear a different line of reasoning draw the same conclusion on RNA viruses.

        • D. Stevens says:

          I agree with the premise that a global corona virus pandemic is unlikely and there are a number of amazing coincidences surrounding the pandemic. I suspect the entire thing was ginned up but I find it unlikely it’s to gather additional DNA samples.

          • laetitiavocatur
            All is Dust says:

            That’s where I am too – I don’t think it was constructed to gather DNA samples to feed the AI beast.

            It was just interesting to see someone with a different perspective suggest a global coronavirus pandemic is not possible (with our current understanding of RNA viruses). And that any sustained infection is likely multiple releases of infectious clones.

            Further discussion is occurring here: https://sagehana.substack.com/p/the-monster-beckons

      • laetitiavocatur
        All is Dust says:

        D. Stevens,

        I think my response to you has been struck down by the web gods.

        He wasn’t sure if they are collecting genetic information now, or whether they are just conditioning people so that such information can be extracted within the next 10 years with minimum fuss.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I listened to the first few minutes of this. The speaker does not really start until something like 2:45 or 3:00. Somewhere around 12:00 he gets to why the genetic material is supposedly needed. He starts with a slide like this:
      https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Why-AI-Needs-a-Genome-1024×482.png
      The is related to Artificial Intelligence and trans-humanism. This is over the top for me.

      I suppose the idea is salvation through more and more complexity. Of course, complexity takes energy. I stopped watching at this point. The whole video is over 2.5 hours long. Maybe someone with more patience than I have can offer some insights into anything that this fellow is talking about. I can see why he talks about having trouble getting tenure at universities.

    • please tell us who the powers that be

      ———-happen to be?

    • MM says:

      I am 100% sure nobody would ever dare to clone me.
      So what.

    • sciouscience says:

      In between the numerous swabs of the same patient over time and after multiple stings of gene therapy resides the evidence of what mutations are occurring. Everything is tracked. We really might be programming simulation prime for the transitional residence of the newly uploadable.

  35. Of the long Covid patients she has seen, only 2 out of 50 who have applied for SSDI have been approved so far, she said.

    To date, the Social Security Administration has flagged about 44,000 disability claims nationally that include Covid as one of the medical conditions, according to agency spokeswoman Nicole Tiggemann, making up just 1% of all disability applications the agency has received.
    To be approved, “a person must have a medical condition or combination of conditions that prevents the individual from working and is expected to last at least one year or result in death,” Tiggemann said.
    “Disability evaluations are based on functional limitations that affect an individual’s ability to work, not a diagnosis,” she added.

    https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/11/30/long-covid-patients-share-their-struggle-with-disability-coverage.html

    I never really got better’ — long Covid patients share their struggle with ongoing symptoms and the health-care system
    Although the Biden administration is looking at ending the public health emergency over the next few months, many who get sick but survive Covid suffer from enduring health problems, studies show. And currently, as many as 23 million Americans have what’s considered long Covid, according to recent estimates from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. As many as 4 million people are likely out of work due to the illness, a separate report from the Brookings Institution found.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      If Biden wants another way to fund out-of-work individuals, this could be it. In fact, he could add vaccine injured as well, as long as they didn’t mention the cause. But I suppose Social Security Disability Insurance is already at a high point. Adding more payees, when funding mostly would have to come from taxpayer supplied funds, would be a problem.

      • banned says:

        SS disability
        Contact SS disability lawyer
        Pay SS disability lawyer
        SS disability lawyer tells you what your injury is.
        SS disability lawyer files claim
        claim is denied
        SS disability lawyer takes it to court
        Voila your on the dole
        Yes this is draining the SS fund and fast

  36. Fast Eddy says:

    There is good reason that this substack coined the terms “slow kill bioweapon” and DEATHVAX™. The four main eugenics pillars of these Modified mRNA experimental gene therapies are cancer, prion-based diseases, heart diseases, and micro clotting. The ferret, rat and mice studies of years ago gave us critical insights into the potential deadly adverse reactions while concurrently establishing that these technologies do not protect against any viruses and ultimately confer negative immunity. This is why Modified mRNA therapies never made it to human trials, until the “pandemic” EUA scam that is.

    Lots of good stuff hear (if you are unvaxxed):

    https://www.2ndsmartestguyintheworld.com/p/micro-clotting-one-of-the-primary

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      From the article:

      The symptoms of Long COVID seem to be exactly what one would recognize as being caused by micro clots and poor circulation: fatigue, memory issues, lightheadedness and dizziness, tingling in the extremities, etc. Likewise, as more and more “silent strokes” occur, a patient’s health would likely deteriorate and the decline would be blamed on whatever major organ fails first. Thus, leading to what we are seeing; surging excessive death rates around the world with a variety of named causes, rather than one largely underlying, cause…micro clotting.

      Since all genetically modified humans (GMH) have been medically transformed into spike protein factories that are indefinitely manufacturing potentially trillions upon trillions of these cytotoxic spikes, those that did not die within the first five months are nonetheless for all intents and purposes the living dead. Many of these GMH’s will claim that they “feel fine”, but they are essentially akin to those that are walking around with undiagnosed stage 4 cancer, except that they are metastasizing systemic micro clots that at some point “suddenly” result in SADS, or any of the other alleged Long COVID symptoms.

      • banned says:

        Has any research been done that documents how long a jab turns one into a spike protein replicator? Any research into consistency of said spike protein production- levels? Is there a point where the spike proteins are flushed from the system?
        Can spike protein levels be measured? Im really tripping on this.

        The foxy latina gal gave me a awesome smile at my lame joke today. Age appropriate even. Im pretty sure she is jabbed. This is messed up.
        “hey baby are you like jabbed no big deal we can still text if you are.”
        Everyone understands about asking about STDs. This is worse.
        “uh did you volunteer to turn yourself into a GMH spike protein replicator? yes? oh i forgot something. be right back.”

        messed up

        Beggars cant be choosy.

        • ivanislav says:

          “Can spike protein levels be measured?”

          I don’t recall what measurement method was used, but I do recall a papers that measured spike protein levels both in covid patients and vaccinees. Covid patients had average blood levels of 72 picograms/ml and vaccinees were 47 picograms/ml. Severe covid patients had up to 2 nanograms/ml.

          Disclaimer: All these numbers are the product of my fallible recollection.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          It sounds like you are asking, “How long after vaccination does shedding occur?” I am sure someone else here would have a better answer than I do.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        that did not die within the first five months are nonetheless for all intents and purposes the living dead. Many of these GMH’s will claim that they “feel fine”, but they are essentially akin to those that are walking around with undiagnosed stage 4 cancer, except that they are metastasizing systemic micro clots that at some point “suddenly” result in SADS, or any of the other alleged Long COVID symptoms.

        The CovIDIOTS seldom admit to something being not right after the shots…. but I do know of one young guy in our hockey league – he’d be 19 or 20… he said ‘I never used to get sick but since these shots I am constantly sick and it lingers – can’t drop it’

        He knows he f789ed up.

        Most CovIDIOTS will not admit that.

  37. Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
    Gail Tverberg says:

    New this morning, but not really a “done deal” yet.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-agrees-60-barrel-price-cap-russian-seaborne-oil-eu-diplomat-2022-12-01/

    EU agrees $60 a barrel price cap on Russian seaborne oil -EU diplomat

    European Union governments tentatively agreed on Thursday on a $60 a barrel price cap on Russian seaborne oil – an idea of the Group of Seven (G7) nations – with an adjustment mechanism to keep the cap at 5% below the market price, an EU diplomat said.

    Poland, which had pushed for the cap to be as low as possible, has until 1500 GMT to agree to the deal, which would need to be approved by all EU governments in a written procedure by Friday, the diplomat said.

    We will see if it actually goes through. Or, it could evaporate, like the idea of a natural gas price cap at a very high level.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I see the WSJ titles a similar article, EU Asks Members to Set Russia Oil-Price Cap at $60.

    • MM says:

      It does not make sense to pay a single Dollar for a Russian Barrel of oil.

      • Withnail says:

        It does if we need oil, which we do, and Russia is willing to sell it. Do you prefer to starve and freeze?

        • MM says:

          I do not see any connection of “I need Russian oil” and “payment” for Russian oil at all,
          In case of questions. I kindly ask my neighbors to send their sons.
          I deserve it because without croissants in the morning I can not deliver the work for my boss.

  38. Sad. Anyone fancy a tin of cat food heated on the radiator, or spoons of it heated over a candle, for dinner? Surreal Britain in 2022….

    > British families are ‘eating PET FOOD’ and ‘heating meals on radiators and candles’ as households struggle amid cost-of-living crisis, charity warns

    A community worker with 20 years’ experience said people are being forced to eat pet food while others are heating their food on radiators due to the ongoing cost of living crisis.

    Speaking of the experiences he has witnessed, told BBC Wales: ‘I’m still shocked by the fact that we have people who are eating pet food,’ he said.

    ‘[There are] people who are trying to heat their food on a radiator or a candle.

    ‘These are shocking kind of stories that are actually the truth.’

    He discussed how people are not being paid enough to afford basic needs and essentials all should have access to.

    The Pantry, where Mr Seed works, is a Community Trust-funded facility that aims to reduce food poverty in Cardiff and provide affordable food and household essentials to over 160 locals.

    Soaring food and energy costs have been labelled the main cause of the latest surge, with the Office for National Statistics estimating that the average UK household is now paying 88.9 per cent more for heating and lighting than last year.

    New inflation figures show that the price of household staples such as milk, butter, cheese, meat and bread increased by up to 42 per cent last month – the highest rates since 1980.

    Experts believe that by the end of the year, the average family will have spent £4,960 in the supermarket in 2022 – £380 more than 2021. A poll published this morning revealed that 85% of people are ‘worried’ about the rising cost of living – up from 69% in January.

    The idea of Christmas dinner has become a worrisome burden for many British families as new data by household finances app Nous.co revealed that a fifth of families in the UK say they are going to ask their guests to pay towards their Christmas dinner.

    Along with cutting costs on food, people were planning to spend more than a third (36.3%) less on presents this year and one in three (33%) also said they could not afford to splash out like they have previously.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11490023/British-families-eating-PET-FOOD-heating-meals-radiators-rising-costs-struggles.html

  39. Jackson
    Jackson says:

    Vaxxed and boosted herd member explaining Bayes’ theorem to us silly unvaxxed . . . Gail, what is your opinion?
    https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1598321210500468736

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      What Professor Elliot misses is the fact that the likelihood of catching Covid seems to be higher for the vaccinated than the unvaccinated, for all age groups other than the very young (11 and under) and for all vaccinated statuses, except “within the last three months.” Check out sheet 2 of 4 from this website. https://www.walgreens.com/healthcare-solutions/covid-19-index

      Professor Jackson’s example is very misleading because the vaccinated generally do not have lower Covid rates than the vaccinated. The vaccine damages their immune system, so their risk tends to be higher, after a very short initial period after a booster.

      For example, if we look at the ages 45-64, we find the following percentages of the people who came in for testing (for any reason, such as going to visit elderly relatives, in anticipation of an upcoming medical procedure, need a test for work, or feeling possible symptoms), we find the following:

      Unvaccinated 32.7% positive
      Last dose >= 12 months 39.5%
      Last dose 9 to 11 months 45.2%
      Last dose 6 to 8 months 37.1%
      Last dose 3 to 5 months 36.6%
      Last dose < 3 months 27.6% The "benefit" of the booster is very small, and of very short duration. Long term, the vaccinated come out worse than the unvaccinated. The vaccine doesn't really act like a vaccine. It acts more like the shots people take to prevent allergic reactions. A person's body learns not to fight off the virus. This is not a beneficial response, in the long run.

  40. reante
    reante says:

    Am I imagining things or is “died after a short illness” the new “died suddenly?”

  41. Student says:

    (Voxnews.info – Italy)

    Over the past hours, it was reported that Multiple Letter bombs have been delivered around the Kingdom of Spain to key facilities.
    The letter bombs either exploded or have been intercepted
    It includes:
    – The Embassy of Ukraine
    – An arms manufacturer factory in Zaragoza which sent weapons to Ukrainian Armed Forces
    – An arms manufacturer factory in Madrid which sent weapons to Ukrainian Armed Forces
    – A Pan-European/European Union-owned Satellite Centre located inside
    – NATO’s Torrejón Air Base, just outside Madrid
    – The Office of Spanish Social-democrat Prime-Minister Pedro Sanchez
    – The Headquarters of the Ministry of Defense of the Kingdom of Spain

    https://voxnews.info/2022/12/01/pacchi-bomba-a-sorpresa-in-tutta-la-spagna/

    (El Pais – Spain)

    ‘The envelopes with pyrotechnic material addressed to Sánchez, Robles and the Ukrainian ambassador were sent from Spain.
    A sixth incendiary envelope was found at the U.S. Embassy in Madrid. The Audiencia Nacional investigates the authorship of these shipments.’

    https://elpais.com/espana/2022-12-01/interceptado-un-tercer-sobre-con-explosivo-en-la-base-aerea-de-torrejon.html

    • Very odd. It is not really clear who did it or why. UKR was quick to blame it on the Russian state, which seems extremely unlikely.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Random acts of violence. No notes to explain why, it would seem. People are frustrated now, but it is hard to believe that this is one way the frustration would play out.

        • Student says:

          I remember that after the terrorist attack in Antocha Station in Madrid in 2004, Spain decided to left the military coalition for the invasion of Iraq.
          I don’t know if it could be a similar pattern.
          In Spain there are various internal groups and regions who are against the central power and the central power is against them.
          I talked in the past with Spanish people and they remember well that western Countries invaded Iraq for a claim of weapons of mass distruction that proved to be false…
          Spain is in energy crisis like other EU Countries and they have now Italy in competition for Algerian gas .
          We will see what will happen.

    • Replenish says:

      We are looking for the next transitional Event(s) to fulfill foreign policy.

      NS2 pipeline attack, Istanbul Attack.. Letter Bombs to Embassies?

      Spain/NATO/EU say we will not be deterred in Ukraine.

      Anthrax attacks, 9/11 and lead up to the Iraq War..

      Project for a New American Century (PNAC) says we need “a new Pearl Harbor” to unlock the Middle East.

      Fauci and Bright are on video before C-19 saying we need an Event to stoke public fear and attract funding for a universal flu vaccine. Bright serves as whistleblower to stigmatize Trump’s focus on therapeutics. Bright and Biden repeat the term “Dark Winter” stoking fear of the virus.

      Fauci and Company leave a long email, patent and funding chain to Wuhan lab off-shoring Gain of Function research. Fort Dietrich (reported source of Anthrax strain blamed on Iraq) and WIV are mentioned as possible sources of the leaked lab virus early in the pandemic.

      All Roads Lead to Dark Winter..

      “Then, at the end of the exercise, a “prominent Iraqi defector” emerges who claims Iraq had arranged the bioweapons attack “through intermediaries,” which is deemed “highly credible” even though “there is no forensic evidence to support this claim.” Iraq officially denies the accusation, but vows to target the U.S. in “highly damaging ways” if the U.S. “takes action against Iraq.” It is thus unsurprising that, as will be shown later in this report, key participants in Dark Winter would heavily promote the narrative that Iraq was to blame for the 2001 Anthrax attacks. Other participants, including Robert Kadlec, would then become involved in the FBI’s “sabotaged” investigation once the Bureau began to focus on a domestic, as opposed to an international source.”

      https://unlimitedhangout.com/2020/04/investigative-series/all-roads-lead-to-dark-winter/

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        Scaring people seems to be high on the list of approaches used in the current effort to get along with less oil and other energy per capita. Scaring people involves little direct energy use, and it seems to have long residual effect. I still see a lot of customers in the grocery store wearing masks.

        • Xabier says:

          It is also worth noting that Fauci also made a speech – I think it was at the Milken Institute? – just before the faked ‘pandemic’, calling for ‘blowing up’ the existing regulatory system in order to clear a path for mRNA technology drugs, ie the pseudo-vaxxes.

          With the – seemingly everlasting – emergency authorisations in all jurisdictions, waved through by captured regulators, and justified by a non-existent pandemic, he and his colleagues in Big Pharma and the investors, and most probably the MIC, got just what they wished for.

          How surprising. We move in a world of miraculous coincidences, do we not?

      • ”dark winter” means the prospect of running out of fuel to make it otherwise

        Biden is offering a warning of the inevitable–it’s the best he can do

        —-but Biden is senile”—etc etc

        that isn’t the point, only foolish unthinkers scream abuse at politicians.–senile or otherwise. ‘We’ are the cause of the problem.

        vote for the return of MAGA by all means–it won’t change the inevitable.

        Fauci was quite right, in a sense, that an ‘event’ is needed to shake people up—trouble with that is, half the people will be convinced that the event was a hoax perpetrated by the other half.

  42. Surprisingly, we have someone that sounds as if he posts here at OFW!

    Edge of Extinction: Oil and Water Don’t Mix
    2,018 views · 21 hours ago…more

    Nature Bats Last
    18.6K

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_y78CCfZf4Q&t=18s

    Guy speaks of Peak Oil, financial collapse and the end of Industrial activity!
    What more can he point out to us all here we that we already have discussed?
    Suppose everything is interconnected in our network…

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Guy McPherson seems to have a new occupation. His prior occupation seemed to be preaching climate alarmism. Now, the blurb mentions that he teaches an audio course in Conservation Biology, and this video seems to be related to it.

      Guy starts out by talking about oil and water. He says that they don’t mix. He then says that our ability to adequately get use of them is falling rapidly. From there, he seems to go into Peak Oil theory. I didn’t watch further.

      Guy interviewed me once. He has been around in the Peak Oil world what seems like forever. He has spoken at some of the same conferences that I have spoken at.

      • Perhaps I should have alerted you to begin in the middle.
        Regardless, he’s mostly agreeing with us here at OFW.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          I thought the beginning was interesting.

          • Cromagnon says:

            You are too kind to McPherson.
            Despite my metaphysical pondering, I can think critically when push comes to shove.
            He’s a kook.

            “Global warming will destroy us all by 2020”…..not likely.

            Comet impact potentially, mass vulcanism ok, Calhoun like social implosion: meh,.. slim chance of extinction, but dark age inducing for sure.

            Sudden shocked realization by humanity that this is all a really, really bad farm/garden/war game run by an evil god (AIx, Rex Mundae, Demiurge)……hmmmm,….
            Chances increasing exponentially as evidence piles up…….lol

            Nobody is more surprised than my over educated western psyche!

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              When I was interviewed by Guy McPherson, he introduced me as Gail Tverberg from Our Infinite World dot com.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              It is possible to stay awake for days if one smokes meth continuously – he was likely on the tail end of a huge bender… not thinking straight.

              norm’s the same – cept it’s not meth

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Guy was already stressed by his Mentally Ill Meanderings.. then he started on the meth… and then BOOM – dead…

              guess he was disappointed that GW wasn’t happening hahaha

            • Ah. Give the Guy a break…he’s admitted he should of kept quiet about it all and stayed at his job with the University and enjoyed the perks.
              Just like Gail, he admits regardless, we can’t do anything about it..
              Glad to see he’s on Peak oil and the nuclear ponds now…

            • banned says:

              “When I was interviewed by Guy McPherson, he introduced me as Gail Tverberg from Our Infinite World dot com.”

              Oh the humanity!
              Theres lack of style then theres morons with lack of style.

          • Mac
            Agamemnon says:

            Sodium battery is not as energy dense but maybe it’s more useful.
            The big picture to me is figuring out how much energy it takes to build the alternative energies.
            https://cleantechnica.com/2022/11/24/byd-may-begin-sodium-ion-battery-production-in-2023/

            Solid state:
            https://disq.us/url?url=https%3A%2F%2Fyoutu.be%2FMR212FJIEpE%3AVy-hKPzTG4XkTeBzkgklloTMqpM&cuid=469956

            • Fast Eddy says:

              You seem to have not gotten the memo — the world is ending.

            • tomsplaything
              Fred says:

              Sodium batteries – ho ho! Which industrial civilisation do you reckon will be using those?

              My lithium batteries have a 10 year warranty. By the end of that I reckon I’ll either be dead, or wish I was.

              If the company that made them is still around that will be a freakin’ miracle.

            • Withnail says:

              There are no sodium batteries. There are youtube videos about sodium batteries that do not exist.

              Where can I buy a sodium battery? Oh that’s right I can’t buy one because they don’t exist.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Didn’t Guy kill himself?

  43. For those following this unraveling, skimmed through this and surprisingly found it rather entertaining and applaud SBF for his wiggling in his replies. Rather wordy but boils down to no intent, was not aware, could have…ect..
    This SBF may evade doing serious criminal time if there is no tangible evidence of intentional wrongdoing.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/01/business/dealbook/sam-bankman-fried-dealbook-interview-transcript.html

    Not sure if he was supplied beforehand of the questions beforehand.
    Imagine the CB and the Fed will take note when it’s their turn on the stand.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      “Not aware; no intent to defraud.” Great approach if you can make it work!

    • Withnail says:

      Nothing is going to happen to him. Crypto is completely unregulated. There will be no criminal case.

    • Hubbs says:

      This too shall pass. Like all the Russiagate and Clintongate scandals.

      SBF could be getting backing and protection by Deep State- not only to funnel money through his FTX scam to Democrat candidates and other corrupted officials on the take through Ukraine, but as a distractor/disrupter to cryptocurrencies- to argue for creation of CDBC, for our benefit of course. LOL. Kind of like how mass shootings are “needed” to promote the gun control agenda.

      Now that SBF has been exposed and the elections are over, and the Ukraine War is militarily non-salvageable by Ukraine (failed plan B, whereas Plan A had been to destroy Russia economically with sanctions which also appears to have failed so far) will this SBF guy be useful? Or will he have prepared a “dead man’s switch” to counter blackmail the Deep State if they ever think about trying to Clintonize him? He’ll skate. Our justice system is so corrupt nothing will happen I bet. So what is plan C? Global economic collapse? Through what weapon? A new virus, new climate threat? Food and energy supply disruptions?

      I have even thought about the off-the-wall possibility that the Globalists are trying to keep up with threats of gun control to encourage more people to arm themselves, thus when food and gas shortages hit, the citizenry will be well equipped for their self destruction. They always push gun control but manage to leave the doors open just enough so that people like Clinton, Obama and Biden manage to preside over the biggest gun buying sprees in history. And the treasure trove of weapons left behind in Afghanistan and diverted weapons from Ukraine- can be disseminated throughout European countries to destabilize them. A few rounds fired upon both sides in the Maidan protests sure went a long way in disrupting things.

      What if this Russian winter offensive that is supposed to occur once the ground has frozen and the tanks can roll against what now appears is a depleted Ukrainian force doesn’t happen? What happens instead if a new DMZ kind of gels along the current lines? Not enough energy and materials for either side to deliver a decisive blow? The argument I get from viewers on Gonzalo Lira’s interview with Alex Mercouris yesterday, Scott Ritter, Douglas Macgregor etc. is that Russia will definitely make its move in the coming weeks to demilitarize Ukraine in one overwhelming strike- because Russia is facing an existential threat. So will the Dnieper River boundary provide any more meaningful “existential” protection than a farther western boundary?A few hundred miles is meaningless in the days of missiles, drones, and aircraft that can span a thousand miles easily, while the conventional supply lines to support occupying ground forces are very costly to maintain. Although it a stalemate along the current lines would be the best outcome, it appears it is unlikely. But if I were a Russian or Ukrainian soldier, I wouldn’t mind being posted along a DMZ even if it meant being there for a 1 year deployment. Better one year standing guard duty than one minute of actual combat.
      But if nothing happens, that would be a sign that both sies now realize they can not sustain any more conflict. Maybe the same dilemma with the China vs Taiwan. Like two drunks who are now too drunk to fight each other despite all their threats. In a strange way, this would be a signa that maybe supplies and transport of energy and materials have reached critical supply deficiencies globally.

      • tomsplaything
        Fred says:

        Nobody except Putin’s inner circle and the General Staff knows where Russia will stop. They’re busy de-Nazifying and de-electrifying at the moment.

        Russia can fight on forever more or less at their current rate of losses, which is miniscule compared to the hapless Ukie and NATO cannon fodder.

        Go woke go up in smoke is the updated meme.

        The West has no meaningful ability to fight a large scale conventional war. Their industrial base is largely gone and procurement corruption means that any weapons delivered are fantastically expensive and barely fit for purpose – ref F35, Patriot, Zumwalt, sitting duck carriers etc etc.

  44. banned says:

    Swiss cardiologist who got locked up in the funny farm for speaking out against lockdowns. Inject our experimental gene therapies. Your crazy if you dont.

    Inject experimental gene therapies- not crazy
    inject fentanyl- addict not crazy leave on street
    dont inject experimental gene therapies- crazy

    https://youtu.be/ynlbJjosf7M

  45. This is developing into a very unpleasant situation. The more involuntary the UK becomes, the more that defiance grows. The heavy-handed Tory approach to deny a democratic choice to Scotland looks to be the final nail for UK.

    > Scottish independence: New poll suggests Yes four points ahead after Supreme Court ruling

    A new poll has suggested support for Scottish independence is strong, a week after the Supreme Court ruled the Scottish Parliament could not legislate for a referendum without Westminster approval.

    The Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll of 1,000 people finds 49 per cent of Scottish respondents would vote yes and 45 per cent no if there were to be a referendum tomorrow, with 5 per cent saying they did not know.

    Support for independence was higher than a comparable poll on September 18 last year when 44% of respondents said they would vote yes while 47% said they would vote no.

    The latest poll, of 1000 Scottish voters, also found that 46% said they would support a referendum on Scottish independence being held in the next year, while 43% would oppose one, 9% said they would neither support nor oppose the prospect and 2% said they didn’t know.

    The SNP said the poll showed a majority for yes in every age group under 65, with a majority of 52 per cent supporting independence when excluding don’t knows.

    The poll also found that if a second referendum were to be held in Scotland in the next six months, 43% of respondents expect the yes side would win, while 39% said no would win and 18% said they don’t know.

    SNP Depute Leader Keith Brown MSP said: “This poll shows growing support for what the people of Scotland expressed in the 2021 election, they want a choice to become an independent nation.

    “The chaos at Westminster in recent months has tanked the UK economy, accelerated inflation and crippled household budgets with soaring mortgages, all from successive Tory governments that Scotland didn’t elect.

    “Last week’s ruling showed clearly that the UK is not a voluntary union.

    “In a democracy, it is right for the people to have their say and neither the Tories or Labour should be able to deny that.

    “The message to Westminster parties now is clear, Scottish democracy cannot be denied.”

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/scottish-independence-new-poll-suggests-yes-four-points-ahead-after-supreme-court-ruling-3937757

    • dksksl
      Saint Ewart says:

      Seems a bit disingenuous to vote yes to independence from the U.K. only to hand sovereignty straight back to Ursula Van Leyens unelected EU commission and to rejoin the EU?….which is what Krankies SNP want.least you get a vote for the U.K. Commons. the rump U.K. on the other hand could find itself dealing with a hostile foreign power on a land border. I don’t mean Scotland which has a wee population of differing ethnicities [picts/gael n’alba.Strathclyde/ old English/Norse beyond the tartan curtain etc. Plus Hindus, Sikhs and Umma) no I mean those larger powers who would easily co opt such a brassic minnow, for foreign exchange, or £5 bags :).

      Look what happened to Ireland under De Valera, sending all those birthday cakes to Hitler and letting all his U boats refuel of their western coast. My enemies enemy and all that. Could have been nasty.

Comments are closed.