Most people have a simple, but wrong, idea about how the world economy will respond to “not enough energy to go around.” They expect that oil prices will rise. With these higher prices, producers will be able to extract more fossil fuels so the system can go on as before. They also believe that wind turbines, solar panels and other so-called renewables can be made with these fossil fuels, perhaps extending the life of the system further.
The insight people tend to miss is the fact that the world’s economy is a physics-based, self-organizing system. Such economies grow for many years, but ultimately, they collapse. The underlying problem is that the population tends to grow too rapidly relative to the energy supplies necessary to support that population. History shows that such collapses take place over a period of years. The question becomes: What happens to an economy beginning its path toward full collapse?
One of the major uses for fossil fuel energy is to add complexity to the system. For example, roads, electricity transmission lines, and long-distance trade are forms of complexity that can be added to the economy using fossil fuels.
When energy per capita falls, it becomes increasingly difficult to maintain the complexity that has been put in place. It becomes too expensive to properly maintain roads, electrical services become increasingly intermittent, and trade is reduced. Long waits for replacement parts become common. These little problems build on one another to become bigger problems. Eventually, major parts of the world’s economy start failing completely.
When people forecast ever-rising energy prices, they miss the fact that market fossil fuel prices consider both oil producers and consumers. From the producer’s point of view, the price for oil needs to be high enough that new oil fields can be profitably developed. From the consumer’s point of view, the price of oil needs to be sufficiently low that food and other goods manufactured using oil products are affordable. In practice, oil prices tend to rise and fall, and rise again. On average, they don’t satisfy either the oil producers or the consumers. This dynamic tends to push the economy downward.
There are many other changes, as well, as fossil fuel energy per capita falls. Without enough energy products to go around, conflict tends to rise. Economic growth slows and turns to economic contraction, creating huge strains for the financial system. In this post, I will try to explain a few of the issues involved.
[1] What is complexity?
Complexity is anything that gives structure or organization to the overall economic system. It includes any form of government or laws. The educational system is part of complexity. International trade is part of complexity. The financial system, with its money and debt, is part of complexity. The electrical system, with all its transmission needs, is part of complexity. Roads, railroads, and pipelines are part of complexity. The internet system and cloud storage are part of complexity.
Wind turbines and solar panels are only possible because of complexity and the availability of fossil fuels. Storage systems for electricity, food, and fossil fuels are all part of complexity.
With all this complexity, plus the energy needed to support the complexity, the economy is structured in a very different way than it would be without fossil fuels. For example, without fossil fuels, a high percentage of workers would make a living by performing subsistence agriculture. Complexity, together with fossil fuels, allows the wide range of occupations that are available today.
[2] The big danger, as energy consumption per capita falls, is that the economy will start losing complexity. In fact, there is some evidence that loss of complexity has already begun.
In my most recent post, I mentioned that Professor Joseph Tainter, author of the book, The Collapse of Complex Societies, says that when energy supplies are inadequate, the resulting economic system will need to simplify–in other words, lose some of its complexity. In fact, we can see that such loss of complexity started happening as early as the Great Recession in 2008-2009.
The world was on a fossil fuel energy consumption per capita plateau between 2007 and 2019. It now seems to be in danger of falling below this level. It fell in 2020, and only partially rebounded in 2021. When it tried to rebound further in 2022, it hit high price limits, reducing demand.
There was a big dip in energy consumption per capita in 2008-2009 when the economy encountered the Great Recession. If we compare Figure 2 and Figure 3, we see that the big drop in energy consumption is matched by a big drop in trade as a percentage of GDP. In fact, the drop in trade after the 2008-2009 recession never rebounded to the former level.
Another type of loss of complexity involves the drop in the recent number of college students. The number of students was rising rapidly between 1950 and 2010, so the downward trend represents a significant shift.
The shutdowns of 2020 added further shifts toward less complexity. Broken supply lines became more of a problem. Empty shelves in stores became common, as did long waits for newly ordered appliances and replacement parts for cars. People stopped buying as many fancy clothes. Brick and mortar stores did less well financially. In person conferences became less popular.
We know that, in the past, economies that collapsed lost complexity. In some cases, tax revenue fell too low for governments to maintain their programs. Citizens became terribly unhappy with the poor level of government services being provided, and they overthrew the governmental system.
The US Department of Energy states that it will be necessary to double or triple the size of the US electric grid to accommodate the proposed level of clean energy, including EVs, by 2050. This is, of course, a kind of complexity. If we are already having difficulty with maintaining complexity, how do we expect to double or triple the size of the US electric grid? The rest of the world would likely need such an upgrade, as well. A huge increase in fossil fuel energy, as well as complexity, would be required.
[3] The world’s economy is a physics-based system, called a dissipative structure.
Energy products of the right kinds are needed to make goods and services. With shrinking per capita energy, there will likely not be enough goods and services produced to maintain consumption at the level citizens are used to. Without enough goods and services to go around, conflict tends to grow.
Instead of growing and experiencing economies of scale, businesses will find that they need to shrink back. This makes it difficult to repay debt with interest, among other things. Governments will likely need to cut back on programs. Some governmental organizations may fail completely.
To a significant extent, how these changes happen is related to the maximum power principle, postulated by ecologist Howard T. Odum. Even when some inputs are inadequate, self-organizing ecosystems try to maintain themselves, as best possible, with the reduced supplies. Odum said, “During self-organization, system designs develop and prevail that maximize power intake, energy transformation, and those uses that reinforce production and efficiency.” As I see the situation, the self-organizing economy tends to favor the parts of the economy that can best handle the energy shortfall that will be taking place.
In Sections [4], [5], and [6], we will see that this methodology seems to lead to a situation in which competition leads to different parts of the economy (energy producers and energy consumers) being alternately disadvantaged. This approach leads to a situation in which the human population declines more slowly than in either of the other possible outcomes:
- Energy producers win, and high energy prices prevail – The real outcome would be that high prices for food and heat for homes would quickly kill off much of the world’s population because of lack of affordability.
- Energy consumers always win, and low energy prices prevail – The real outcome would be that energy supplies would fall very rapidly because of inadequate prices. Population would fall quickly because of a lack of energy supplies (particularly diesel fuel) needed to maintain food supplies.
[4] Prices: Competition between producers and customers will lead to fossil fuel energy prices that alternately rise and fall as extraction limits are hit. In time, this pattern can be expected to lead to falling fossil fuel energy production.
Energy prices are set through competition between:
[a] The prices that consumers can afford to pay for end products whose costs are indirectly determined by fossil fuel prices. Food, transportation, and home heating costs are especially fossil fuel price sensitive. Poor people are the most quickly affected by rising fossil fuel prices.
[b] The prices that producers require to profitably produce these fuels. These prices have been rising rapidly because the easy-to-extract portions were removed earlier. For example, the Wall Street Journal is reporting, “Frackers Increase Spending but See Limited Gains.”
If fossil fuel prices rise, the indirect result is inflation in the cost of many goods and services. Consumers become unhappy when inflation affects their lifestyles. They may demand that politicians put price caps in place to somehow stop this inflation. They may encourage politicians to find ways to subsidize costs, so that the higher costs are transferred to a different part of the economy. At the same time, the producers need the high prices, to be able to fund the greater reinvestment necessary to maintain, and even raise, future fossil fuel energy production.
The conflict between the high price producers need and the low prices that many consumers can afford is what leads to temporarily spiking energy prices. In fact, food prices tend to spike, too, since food is a kind of energy product for humans, and fossil fuel energy products (oil, especially) are used in growing and transporting the food products. In their book, Secular Cycles, researchers Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov report a pattern of spiking prices in their analysis of historical economies that eventually collapsed.
With oil prices spiking only temporarily, energy prices are, on average, too low for fossil fuel producers to afford adequate funds for reinvestment. Without adequate funds for reinvestment, production begins to fall. This is especially a problem as fields deplete, and funds needed for reinvestment rise to very high levels.
[5] Demand for Discretionary Goods and Services: Indirectly, demand for goods and services, especially in discretionary sectors of the economy, will also tend to get squeezed back by the rounds of inflation caused by spiking energy prices described in Item [4].
When customers are faced with higher prices because of spiking inflation rates, they will tend to reduce spending on discretionary items. For example, they will go out to eat less and spend less money at hair salons. They may travel less on vacation. Multiple generation families may move in together to save money. People will continue to buy food and beverages since these are essential.
Businesses in discretionary areas of the economy will be affected by this lower demand. They will buy fewer raw materials, including energy products, reducing the overall demand for energy products, and tending to pull energy prices down. These businesses may need to lay off workers and/or default on their debt. Laying off workers may further reduce demand for goods and services, pushing the economy toward recession, debt defaults, and thus lower energy prices.
We find that in some historical accounts of collapses, demand ultimately falls to close to zero. For example, see Revelation 18:11-13 regarding the fall of Babylon, and the lack of demand for goods, including the energy product of the day: slaves.
[6] Higher Interest Rates: Banks will respond to rounds of inflation described in Item [4] by demanding higher interest rates to offset the loss of buying power and the greater likelihood of default. These higher interest rates will have adverse impacts of their own on the economy.
If inflation becomes a problem, banks will want higher interest rates to try to offset the adverse impact of inflation on buying power. These higher interest rates will tend to reduce demand for goods that are often bought with debt, such as homes, cars, and new factories. As a result, the sale prices of these assets are likely to fall. Higher interest rates will tend to produce the same effect for many types of assets, including stocks and bonds. To make matters worse, defaults on loans may also rise, leading to write-offs for the organizations carrying these loans on their balance sheets. For example, the used car dealer Caravan is reported to be near bankruptcy because of issues related to falling used car prices, higher interest rates, and higher default rates on debt.
An even more serious problem with higher interest rates is the harm they do to the balance sheets of banks, insurance companies, and pension funds. If bonds were previously purchased at a lower interest rate, the value of the bonds is less at a higher interest rate. Accounting for these organizations can temporarily hide the problem if interest rates quickly revert to the lower level at which they were purchased. The real problem occurs if inflation is persistent, as it seems to be now, or if interest rates keep rising.
[7] A second major conflict (after the buyer/producer conflict in Item [4], [5], and [6]) is the conflict in how the output of goods and services should be split between returns to complexity and returns to basic production of necessary goods including food, water, and mineral resources such as fossil fuels, iron, nickel, copper, and lithium.
Growing complexity in many forms is something that we have come to value. For example, physicians now earn high wages in the US. People in top management positions in companies often earn very high wages. The top people in large companies that buy food from farmers earn high wages, but farmers producing cattle or growing crops don’t fare nearly as well.
As energy supply becomes more constrained, the huge chunks of output taken by those with advanced degrees and high positions within the large companies gets to be increasingly problematic. The high incomes of citizens in major cities contrasts with the low incomes in rural areas. Resentment among people living in rural areas grows when they compare themselves to how well people in urbanized areas are doing. People in rural areas talk about wanting to secede from the US and wanting to form their own country.
There are also differences among countries in how well their economies get rewarded for the goods and services they produce. The United States, the EU, and Japan have been able to get better rewards for the complex goods that they produce (such as banking services, high-tech medicine, and high-tech agricultural products) compared to Russia and the oil exporting countries of the Middle East. This is another source of conflict.
Comparing countries in terms of per capita GDP on a Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) basis, we find that the countries that focus on complexity have significantly higher PPP GDP per capita than the other areas listed. This creates resentment among countries with lower per-capita PPP GDP.
Russia and the Arab World, with all their energy supplies, come out behind. Ukraine does particularly poorly.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is between two countries that are doing poorly on this metric. Ukraine is also much smaller than Russia. It appears that Russia is in a conflict with a competitor that it is likely to be able to defeat, unless NATO members, including the US, can give immense support to Ukraine. As I discuss in the next section, the industrial ability of the US and the EU is waning, making it difficult for such support to be available.
[8] As conflict becomes a major issue, which economy is largest and is best able to defend itself becomes more important.
Back in 1990, the EU had a greater PPP GDP than did either the US or China. Now, the US is a little ahead of the EU. More importantly, China has come from way behind both the US and EU, and now is clearly ahead of both in PPP GDP.
We often hear that the US is the largest economy, but this is only true if GDP is measured in current US dollars. If differences in actual purchasing power are reflected, China is significantly ahead. China is also far ahead in total electricity production and in many types of industrial output, including cement, steel, and rare earth minerals.
The conflict in Ukraine is now leading countries to take sides, with Russia and China on the same side, and the United States together with the EU on Ukraine’s side. While the US has many military bases around the world, its military capabilities have increasingly been stretched thin. The US is a major oil producer, but the mix of oil it produces is of lower and lower average quality, especially if obtaining diesel and jet fuel from it are top priorities.
Huge pressure is building now for China and Russia to trade in their own currencies, rather than the US dollar, putting pressure on the US financial system and its status as the reserve currency. It is also not clear whether the US would be able to fight on more than one front in a conventional war. A conflict with Iran has been mentioned as a possibility, as has a conflict with China over Taiwan. It is not at all clear that a conflict between NATO and China-Russia is winnable by the NATO forces, including the US.
It appears to me that, to save fuel, more regionalization of trade is necessary with the Asian countries being primary trading partners of each other, rather than the rest of the world. If such a regionalization takes place, the US will be at a disadvantage. It currently depends on supply lines stretching around the world for computers, cell phones, and other high-tech devices. Without these supply lines, the standards of living in the US and the EU would likely decline quickly.
[9] Clearly, the narratives that politicians and the news media tell citizens are under pressure. Even if they understand the true situation, politicians need a different narrative to tell voters and young people wondering about what career to pursue.
Every politician would like a “happily ever after” story to tell citizens. Fortunately, from the point of view of politicians, there are lots of economists and scientists who put together what I call “overly simple” models of the economy. With these overly simple models of the economy, there is no problem ahead. They believe the standard narrative about oil and other energy prices rising indefinitely, so there is no energy problem. Instead, our only problem is climate change and the need to transition to green energy.
The catch is that our ability to scale up green energy is just an illusion, built on the belief that complexity can scale up indefinitely without the use of fossil fuels.
We are left with a major problem: Our current complex economy is in danger of degrading remarkably in the next few years, but we have no replacement available. Even before then, we may need to do battle, in new ways, with other countries for the limited resources that are available.
To be very honest…. over the weekend, SNB tried to marry off CSB to UBS… if that that the best the can do, I am underwhelmed.. where is the bazooka that is reputedly in the pocket and never needs to be fired?
The Fed reversed something like 35% of the entire Quantitative Tightening (QT) program over only a couple days. Rock, meet Hard Place. When things get bad, they always print.
https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1636470293068644358
Excellent — there’s gonna be a run on wheelbarrows shortly!!!
The beast is lurching back and forth violently .. as more pain is applied
Here’s an interesting update from the teacher at the little school we support in deepest darkest Indonesia …
She was deathly ill after jab 2 and we did not hear from her for nearly a month last year…
The latest is — ‘normally sick once or twice a year but now it’s never-ending … like being beat with a rock every week – can’t believe it’ (both her and the students).
VAIDS.
Funny. Indonesia used Sinovax mostly. No mRNA vaccines that I know of. Could be wrong.
In a grand scheme of things… this jab seems more spiritual and physical…
Perhaps the demiurge just needed to confirm how big his army was going to be before he drew up the battle lines against the oversoul.
All covid vaccines are toxic – they all contain Rat Juice…. and it comes from diseased sewer rats
The last day for this blog is 25 March 2023. Gail, since things are heating up and “getting exciting”, perhaps you might to consider doing an open thread while we wait for your next article………….
what is the basis for your optimism that the Collapse won’t happen this week?
the Collapse looks certain by Thursday, more likely Wednesday.
the problems in world finance are unsolvable and will swiftly bring down the global economy, goodbye IC.
mere talk about bAU in 2030 is just blowing smoke.
within 7 orbits of the Earth around the Sun, no survivors will even remember what “year” it is.
hey davidinabillionyears….. I thought you are so optimistic on 2025 or 2027 or 2029?
Why there is a change of heart?
The situation right now is – damned if you do and damned if you don’t
I’m trying out being a fast-collapser.
now I think Monday will be the last day for IC.
good to know you all.
que sera sera.
you don’t wear your new identity well. BAU 2023-2029 baby.
When the sun sends its blessing to our orb. as it will very soon,…..that is a fast collapse.
The civilized human world will end inside of a 24 hour period of planetary rotation.
Monday was so last Tuesday.
Just like saying like…………..
The current situation demonstrates how quickly collapse can happen …. if they lose control you go from calm to total panic.
I have not received the Super Fent package yet so I don’t think this is IT
Fast Eddy promises not to taunt and ridicule the NOF if we get an open thread…
Hopefully we get the missile launch before the 25th.
What killed Credit Suisse? Derivatives? They won’t tell anyone.
Rumours say that they sold protection against stock market losses. If you are protected then you can make risky bets? No? One hedge fund blew away everything and it cost Credit Suisse $10B. Then inflation came from nowhere. Fed tightened and the markets tanked. That was the death kneel.
I don’t know…just rumours.
I vote for all out launch of every nuke on the planet… blow this shit show to smithereens…
Has UEP failed? Or is this just another head fake?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-panics-announces-coordinated-daily-us-dollar-swap-lines-ease-banking-crisis
Over the course of 2022, the Trade Union Congress reports that real wages *fell in the UK by 3%*:
https://www.tuc.org.uk/news/2022-worst-year-real-wage-growth-nearly-half-century
It’s the same in most developed countries, and I fully expect that percentage to increase given that, as per Gaya Herrington’s Limits to Growth update, we are over the energy cliff.
Over the next few years, there will be a growing (and compounding) differential between CPI inflation and real wages. Within 3 years, this may extend to a 15% decrease in living standards and massive increase in political risk.
*History tells us a 15% decrease is revolutionary territory.*
Most in this comment section will be middle to upper middle class, and would have difficulty understanding just how close to the breadline most people are. With this 15% decrease, gross inaffordability will rule the economic climate, and the masses will run red with rage.
*From our perspective the collapse has been slow, but in 2025/26 it will come all at once”
GET OUT OF THE URBAN AREAS
CONVERT YOUR CURRENCY TO PRECIOUS METALS
STOCK UP ON FOOD & RATIONS
SURVIVE THE BOTTLENECK.
It’s very late in the day, so ACT NOW.
Survive the bottleneck then fact the Ponds!
How does one prep for that?
“From our perspective the collapse has been slow, but in 2025/26 it will come all at once”
yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay!!!!!!!
bAU tonight, baby, and continuing through 2024!!!!!!!
“Most in this comment section will be middle to upper middle class, and would have difficulty understanding just how close to the breadline most people are. With this 15% decrease, gross inaffordability will rule the economic klimate, and the masses will run red with rage.”
a reasonable estimate in the Core is that 50% of money is spent on non-essentials.
yes, the poorer people will struggle, but most others will just see that they have a slightly reduced affordability of non-essentials because of increased prices of essentials, year after year.
the ongoing irreversible energy decline must show up as economic decline, and perpetual yearly inflation above yearly wage growth is one part of that dynamic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tiBOVvE6Cw
“surplus energy activity”
probably going to be a pile of skulls underneath these billboards in a few years, next to the synthetic food bank, across the street from the euthanasia center
Surplus energy, to the extent it still exists, will soon be only surplus human energy. Toddlers have this, and some very young people.
I you are sounding more pessimistic than usual Gail.
Do you surmise that we are now at a definable pivot point where “the truth” of collapse becomes openly obvious to the masses?
I worry about it. But things always seem to unwind more slowly than I expect. Europe may go more steeply downhill than the US, for now.
Some of us, well myself perhaps, think there is a fabric to the universe. Biology is extremely rare, billions of years of work.
To date they have thought of something, it will continue.
Dennis L.
I think you are right. There are forces at work that we cannot fully understand that have allowed human life to flourish on Earth.
All those thousand of other extinct species probably thought the same
Humans are not special — we are the dumbest organism to ever walk the Earth
As a supporter of the Animal Liberation Front… I am giddy over the latest developments… hopefully I am not left disappointed
I’d like to see that 260B to over 1T this week
One person’s pessimism … is another’s optimism!
Advance by Wagner PMC and Russian forces on Bakhmut:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/48.5969/37.9948
You can use the clock to turn back the days and see how the front line has developed.
Credit Suisse defaulted on its CoCo bonds
The Credit Default Swap (CDS) cost $1,000 to insure $10,000 in bonds
A default on $17B in CoCo bonds is probably not going to trigger a end of the world scenario in the derivatives market…but it might cause a ripple effect…but who knows?
We will see this next week how things develop.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Nouriel/status/1637567346523996161
The Feds international swap lines are open…dollar for Europe…Canada… Australia…New Zealand…
They just have to save the Western civilization again… because some obscure bank in California lent money to homeless tech bros
Co-ordinated with a group of countries whose banks are, for the most part, in worse shape than ours are. These other countries mostly have little ability for bailouts either.
Thx Yosh. I can olny find new Fed changes to arrangements – U.S. dollar funding increased from weekly to daily to the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank.
Does your source also include Aust and NZ?
A thoughtful look here by Andy Xie at the growth of China’s coal output in the past five years as it replaces petroleum imports which are no longer growing.
Also a comment on the present state of China’s nuclear power generation
“Nuclear power, the ultimate solution for decarbonisation, accounted for 5 per cent of China’s electricity generation last year. In developing a new industry, the government tends to prefer to let the domestic supply chain grow first before allowing a massive take-off. It now appears this point isn’t far off. A secure supply chain for this industry is quite likely before 2030.”
scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3211163/why-chinas-economic-reopening-not-making-oil-prices-jump
article from last month but interesting data
Article is behind a paywall for me, but China’s coal supply is only up because it is using more distant coal, at much higher cost. It is not clear how well this can be supported, in the long run. World coal supply has not been growing as fast as world population. This is a big part of the world’s problem.
Nuclear, too, has issues, unless there is a stable source of uranium. Being next to Kazakhstan and China could be helpful in this regard. World production of uranium has been falling for several years.
Energy costs going to have to rise to a higher share of GDP for economies that remain after whatever discontinuity we encounter. It may be at a higher relative cost, more coal and uranium can be extracted.
Oh. This was the part that I feel may be of interest to you Gail
it starts off with how China’s bounce back did not show in oil import stats. Bit about developing and using domestic instead – self reliance
“Coal has made a huge comeback in China. Production last year reached 4.5 billion tonnes, rising by 1 billion tonnes in just five years. Without this coal boost, global energy prices would have shot up into the stratosphere.
“A decade ago, China’s coal production and use began to falter as smog and mining accidents grew. Total coal use peaked at 4.3 billion tonnes in 2012 and plunged to 3.8 billion tonnes in 2016, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
“But over the years, the government’s anti-pollution campaign has returned cleaner air to cities, sharply reducing public resistance to coal. And with the increasing use of automation in mining, accident rates have dropped off, paving the way for coal to return. Last year, coal consumption was back up at an estimated 4.7 billion tonnes.”
I I don’t know if someone posted it before but this is interesting
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-02-20/china-s-coal-mining-boom-is-running-on-fumes#xj4y7vzkg
The quality of coal might be declining fast and China experience the red queen syndrom.
Russia has world’s 2nd largest reserves and is exporting a lot to China though. I haven’t looked at to what degree that support will continue or be sufficient for China’s needs.
That was a good article. Looks like a Silent Run on the coal mines.
eddy
You obviously have access to far superior media sources than i do
would it be too much to ask, (so that I may learn of course) what these media outlets are?
Media is where I to see what the latest lies are.
Huff BBC CNN are 3 of the worst …
yes eddy
you tell us all the time about the worst
but somehow the best you always keep secret——so the rest of us must remain in ignorance, and never rise to to your level of expertise on world affairs.
we demand to know your sources eddy, so that we can aspire to the same knowledge you have.
How about anything but CCNBBCHUFF. The entire MSM is a lie machine.
still not divulging your information sources eddy
we demand to know
Ive been curious about this too. Judging from the comments in them, Substacks (independent journalists) have got to be a good percentage of the sources. That said, I had probably started reading some of them because Fast Eddy posted them.
FE gets messages from Sam (the dog featured in Son of Sam)
It seems pretty obvious to me: FE reads widely, doesn’t dismiss information on the basis of author or source, and has diverse business and social contacts from whom he also gets news. No other commenter has consistently served as diverse news (starting long, long before Substack or any alternative news aggregator existed) to this blog as FE. I am very grateful to him for providing this service.
If the Fed does not contain the regional bank collapse, there will be another great depression.
Small/medium banks account for 50% of US commercial and industrial lending, 60% of residential real estate lending, 80% of commercial real estate lending, and 45% of consumer lending
@DowdEdward
Actually… ROF
No kidding!
Economists are now estimating that 186 banks may be prone to the same risks as Silicon Valley Bank, per WSJ.
This number is likely even higher as the pressures that regional banks are facing are ramping up.
The government has put itself in a spot where they must backstop all banks for now.
What they did for SVB must be done for everyone until panic subsides.
Costly is an understatement.
@DowdEdward
good to see you up to speed this bright nz morning
always good to know that i can save myself falling off the edge by clinging to the lifeline of your limitless intellect eddy
Australia government numbers confirm rate of serious AE’s is >1 in 100 doses
https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/australia-government-numbers-confirm
Of course the risk of death by covid is so much higher … More Boosters for the MOREONS>
Hmmm… attempting to blame it all on greed… hmmm… I smell a rat
https://sashalatypova.substack.com/p/breaking-candid-camera-recording
New word needed. Launch no longer sufficient. 100km height in .001 second.
If true my math makes that 100 thousand times faster than a very fast rifle bullet. One thousand meters per second.
What will s-600 and s-700 bring? Probably not a lot more than the s-550.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uilPs0tl8qA
https://www.bitchute.com/video/GRSTzvKJ2JBI/
crazy.
100,000x faster than a bullet can’t be right.
how does that effect your b-52s first strike advantage hypothesis?
1; agree-not right
its freakin fast
2Truthful answer; I dont know.
MORE https://sagehana.substack.com/p/clip-from-mass-vaccination-media
hahaha https://sagehana.substack.com/p/sudden-reporter-collapse-syndrome-f46
There are many more SCADS here https://sagehana.substack.com/p/experts-agree-sudden-meteorologist Really good ones
And now … it’s time for… Extreme SCHAD!!! Best ever – seriously
https://sagehana.substack.com/p/experts-agree-sudden-meteorologist
Steno Signals #40 – The banking crisis is likely to accelerate in coming weeks
The banking crisis will continue to rage until the Fed and the ECB accept the underlying reason for the deposit flight. Banks cannot cope with an über-inverted yield curve, why cuts are needed ASAP.
Welcome to our weekly flagship editorial. We will try to be as a concrete and actionable as possible today amidst one of the trickier environments lately. It is all known stuff since this is an environment we have seen before when yield curves have inverted. Our base-case is that the crisis will turn much worse in coming weeks before central banks finally admit to the issue being of monetary nature ultimately.
Banks have a hard time dealing with an extraordinarily inverted yield curve due to 1) the risk of a deposit flight and 2) mark-to-market losses on bond portfolios. We can continue to explain these cases away as stand-alone cases, but the underlying reasons are found in monetary policy, and this is about as strong a hint that you get that the hiking cycle is over.
The below chart is a good example of how loud the bond market screams now. Either the Fed emergency cuts within 1-2 months or else this turns into an outright crisis.
https://andreassteno.substack.com/p/steno-signals-40-the-banking-crisis
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc09a424-e53b-4012-b880-e39924915b6a_642x367.png
The drop in the 2-year yield was indeed amazingly quick and steep. This part of the system can’t handle it. I expect there may be other parts of the financial system in trouble as well (derivatives, for example).
you know who comes to mind:
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc3be20b2-3f29-4345-97b6-0ae68a8f9c4e_922x754.png
Mark Twain: The truth has no defense against a fool determined to believe a lie.
Who is the OFW mega fool?
rather like the wise man knowing the limit of his wisdom
the st upid man knows no such constraint
The basis of all current “ reality”…at every single level,….
The great demon smiles and the diversion of souls proceeds apace.
Surely there are more than 144,000 in this realm who can see through it all?
CSB sold to UBS for 25 cents on the dollar . $ 2 billion for $ 8 billion asking price .
https://mishtalk.com/economics/ubs-offers-1-billion-to-take-over-credit-suisse-valued-at-8-billion
UBS buys CSB and now UBS is in trouble . TSHTF .
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ubs-offers-buy-credit-suisse-1bn-025-share-takeunder-cs-balks-offer
I suppose we will hear the next exciting chapters in the next few days. CSB must have been in worse shape than initially thought. The fact that CBS’s entire tranche of First Tier Capital, worth US $17 billion, was written off seems to imply that the bank was worth something like minus $14 billion, before the take-over. There is also a need for a huge amount of liquidity, to handle possible outflows from the combined bank.
If CBS was in this terrible shape, how many other banks in Europe are in nearly as terrible a shape? How does the whole problem get fixed?
Those providing First Tier Capital are going to be worried about the safety of their money, also.
Fed was able to back fill the holes -08-09 and covid double plus print with QE because hyper inflation was not looming. Now it looks like the $13T covid double plus print put hyperinflation in place via currency dilution even without these new holes. QE now guarantees hyperinflation. No hole fill means the bank nationalization that loomed in 09 is here now along with a digital currency of one sort or another. Im not sure they knew what they were getting into. SVB=nordstream. They wanted a event to introduce digital currency but this? Tried to bring a cat home from the shelter and got a tiger in the living room. No wonder Yellen and Jerome are sweating bullets. MEEEOW
Government eats bank holes with “money”
Government money comes from goverment bond sales
The goverment bond buyers are the banks.
Government bonds created the holes in the banks.
The stink cant be moved. Whoever eats it stinks.
They wanted to kill the dollar but damn. Double plus Zimbabwe. The stink is bigger than they wanted. Double plus stank. They will not be able to insulate their pipe dream digital dollar from the double plus stank.
Uncharted territory.
Hey China how about some delicious double plus stank for your manufactured goods? Its really yummy we promise.
Add this to the problems in Europe.
I’ve got my wheelbarrow ready to be filled with $$$ for one last VIP Room session.
If it gets really bad they lie.
If it gets to the point where ROF is inevitable – they won’t say anything.
Yeah TSHTF it would appear according to the capitalist ROTG. It’s the end of TBTF. The big bank assets will get sorted for nationalization. The rest will be liquidated. Here come the vultures of deflation, and da judge.
Regarding the bail-ins dynamic at play in this deal: for the record, when I said bail-ins are history I was speaking strictly with regard to mom and pop depositors such as what my biological dad got caught up in, in Cyprus. The Machine has just slipped into economic populism, because all hell will break loose if it doesn’t. OT Capitalism is dead. How about that!
Shit + Shit = Shit
Maybe they can buy Doosh Bank next … the Germany version of Shit
(Financial Times)
….there are no raw materials in EU to produce arms for Ukraine…
”Explosives shortage threatens EU drive to arm Ukraine.”
”Scarce gunpowder and TNT supplies delay shift to ‘large-scale war production’, defence industry and officials warn.
Europe’s push to make arms for Ukraine has been hobbled by a shortage of explosives, which industry insiders fear will delay efforts to boost shell production by as much as three years.
Scarce supplies of gunpowder, plastic explosives and TNT have left industry unable to rapidly meet expected EU orders for Ukraine, regardless of how much money is thrown at the problem, according to officials and producers.
The supply chain constraints underline how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has badly exposed Europe’s inadequate arms stocks and weak domestic production capacity, run down by decades of under-investment.
“The fundamental problem is that the European defence industry is not in good shape for large-scale war production,” said one German official.
[…]
“It’s very difficult to increase production of artillery ammunition, especially the heavy, large-calibre ammunition, in a short time,” said Jiří Hynek, chair of the Defence and Security Industry Association of the Czech Republic. “A new artillery factory is very easy, but how to produce more artillery projectiles without raw materials?”
[…]
“It’s not possible to increase, in a short time, nitrocellulose [production] . . . In Europe there are no important producers of the raw materials we need,” said Hynek, referring to a main ingredient of gunpowder. “If I want to increase production of gunpowder I need probably three years.”
https://www.ft.com/content/aee0e1a1-c464-4af9-a1c8-73fcbc46ed17
The EU committed suicide by getting into a war with Russia . Russia was selling to EU in Euro’s and taking the costs for conversion to dollars . Now EU has to come up with US dollars for its import of LNG and oil . There is a shortage of dollars as the FED went into QT mode . Read this . H/T Mike Shellman at blog the oily stuff (OSB) .
A copy/ paste of an observation by John on OSB regarding LNG.
“As the LNG export facilities get built out and US focuses on project its foreign policy on Europe and Russia, that we will see “LNG part deax” a superficial sequel to LTO-America Energy Independence. An ocean of USA NG turned into LNG and sent to Europe and Asia.
Until 1999 Europe was a major USD buyer and financed much of the USA deficit spending. Then the Europeans decided to compete with the USA and launched the Euro. I doubt the Europeans will pay for LNG with Euros. And I don’t believe for a minute that the US will restrict LNG exports if Americans are crushed by NG priced as a global commodity ”
So the question is how will Europe pay . The Eurodollar party is over, the export engine Germany is stuttering. How many Louis Vitton bags, Moet Chandon champagne and Hermes scarves will they have to sell to get dollars for a tanker of LNG? We have already talked about the dollar shortage worldwide. Got dollars?
There are all kinds of “details” that are more than details that we don’t think about. Quantitative tightening disturbs the world economy in ways we don’t consider.
As Alexander mentions in the video above, the Chinese productive economy is bigger than those of Europe and USA combined, and Russia is the biggest commodities exporter in the world, with wheat, uranium, the second in oil, with gas, minerals and all sorts. They have the productive fundamentals while USA and Europe have focused on ‘complexity’, services.
NATO is not going to stand a chance in a war on that basis, and there is nothing that they can do now to change that situation. It is the result of many decades of Western foreign policy. Russia ended up keeping almost the whole of northern Eurasia with all of its resources, and USA basically built up the Chinese productive economy by outsourcing its production and supply lines.
Now the chickens are coming home to roost. Basically the West has not had a clue what it is doing for a century. It is most unwise for it to start picking wars now, but foolishness is par for the course now.
The UKR fiasco has simply pushed Russia and China ever closer together, also India, Iran, Saudi and all sorts, and hastened the reconfiguration of global finance and geopolitics away from the USA. They have totally blown it now. All that the West needs now is another massive banking crisis right in the middle of a war. It is a total clown show now.
We will have to wait and see what happens to them if they start with China. My advice is to maybe think about some other way forward than conflict, but humble pie is a new concept for the West. Confrontation is not always the best policy, but USA is going to do what it is going to do.
This is an IEA chart from 2016, showing the top five industrial users of energy at that time. China was way, way ahead of all the others. The US was second; India was third; Russia was fourth, and Japan was fifth. European counties were not on the chart.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/iea-industrial-consumption-of-energy-2016.png
As you mentioned in the article, the point that people tend to miss is that reality is ‘a physics-based, self-organizing system.’
The Maximum Power Principle implies that in the struggle for existence, dissipative structures of whatever kind, including economic societies, prevail that successfully compete to maximise the useful conversion of energy to their own maintenance and growth and so order the environment to themselves, extract order from the environment, buffer against perturbations, and move the furthest away from thermodynamic equilibrium. The same goes for biological evolution as for societal evolution.
That being so, your chart has clear implications. Human wars can be conceptualised as MPP; competition, maximalisation, perturbations. China/ Russia conjoined have successfully competed to maximise their dissipative structural credentials with all that entails and implies, including the potential for a conflict economy.
It is like the West has been asleep the whole time, but humans are not really in control in a truly physics based system. Physics predicts not only what can happen but what will happen. In that sense, the entire course of history is predetermined, which does not really fit with bourgeois ‘liberal’ philosophy and its assumptions. One could go as far as to say that the West still lives in a fantasy narrative – but that was inevitable too. ‘Blame’ is an illusion.
Europe has no diesel to spare for driving tanks nor kerosine for fighter jets.
Europe decided last year that it can do without Russian oil and oilproducts… or can it
(JP)
and if we add that China is probably already sending ammunition to Russia, I think that it is time to stop this war.
By the way, it is difficult to find good arguments about the point that EU and US are allowed to give ammunition to Ukraine, but China is not allowed to give ammunition to Russia…
”Russia is using Chinese ammunition in Ukraine, US gov’t source claims
The US currently possesses information that indicates China’s intent on sending ammunition and weapons to Russia.”
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-734760
Some interesting stuff.
https://mobile.twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1637200604970795008
Gail I think it’s the Feds Discount Window…or the Feds “primary credit lending program available for depository institutions”
The Fed is doing its job as the “Lender of Last Resort” against securities which they now value at par
We have known our whole lives the banks dont have the money we deposit. We have known our whole lives that if everyone asks to withdraw at once the money is not there. The misconception is that they have invested the money in the community. No they invest the money in bonds and MBS.
THe banks have 2% of the money deposited liquid. It used to be 10% by law. During covid it was made 0% by law. 2% means if three depositors out of a hundred ask for their money at the same time the banks dont have it and are forced to sell assets. The MSM suddenly talks about bank runs. THe alternative media suddenly talks about bank runs. Thats almost certain to get three depositors out of a hundred to withdraw in paper federal reserve notes and keep it in paper federal reserve notes. Many times more than that will withdraw from a regional bank and place it with a too big to jail bank.
We are told first amendment does not mean you can yell fire in a crowded theater. Yelling fire in a crowded theater is what we have just witnessed. Especially the theater part. If you think its accidental I have some SVB stock to sell you.
It looks like the SNB take over of credit Swiss is not going to fly. Monday will be interesting.
I just want a bit of excitement … is it too much to ask?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FriADl5WcAIs8I2?format=jpg&name=large
The banks are taking money from the Fed at a higher rate than during the GFC in 2008
The GFC was also preceded by high inflation…a massive Current Account Deficit…and a Fed tightening. They are doing the same mistake. The banks now can’t just hord that cash…they have to lend it…or the economy is starved in a credit crunch.
What exactly is this? Repos plus the new loans that have become available?
So many fragile systems.
Nothing problems our genius experts can’t solve.
Moon landing much harder And they used slide rules.
These guys just laugh at us:
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/dam/assets/170721163006-mission-control-apollo-14-780×439.jpg
Two references for national socialism
https://justice4germans.wordpress.com/2013/04/18/understanding-national-socialism-its-foundation-what-it-really-stood-for-opposed-and-why/
https://counter-currents.com/2012/11/two-volumes-by-gottfried-feder/
25 points of national socialism
https://en.metapedia.org/wiki/25_points
Ed
I never seen that justice4germans site. That page you linked to is an excellent synopsis. It’s on-point. Appreciate you.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheBondFreak/status/1636828827128086560
The deposits at US commercial banks have contracted by $1.25T
Maybe this isn’t a bank run…where deposits are moved from one bank to another within a closed system…but the system is leaking money abroad through a massive Current Account Deficit?
If funds on deposit are used to reduce debt and deleverage, bank deposits may very well drop without funds even leaving the bank
TSA Head: Mug Shots To Become Mandatory For Air Travel [Roundup]
by Gary Leff on March 17, 2023
According to the head of the TSA, mugshots will become mandatory for travel. TSA will require that passengers submit to photos at the airport each time they fly, and then compare those photos against the ones on file from their IDs.
And “passengers can also choose to opt out of certain screening processes if they are uncomfortable, for now. Eventually, biometrics won’t be optional.” (Emphasis mine.)
Big Brother is watching you NOW….total control…it’s for your own protection and you will be safe and secure…the next line is for the pre flight booster…
You get facial recognition and biometrics. All we get in Britain is a new scary alert system.
“The government does not need to know your phone number or location to send you an alert”
“You’ll get alerts based on your current location – not where you live or work”
Doesn’t need your location, but will alert you based on your location. That’s interesting.
Remember all the things that we’ve been warned about lately that could cause a heart attack. Was shock one?
Your mobile phone or tablet may:
make a loud siren-like sound, even if it’s set on silent
vibrate
read out the alert
https://www.gov.uk/alerts/announcements
Self-Monitoring, Analysis, and Reporting Technology phones, your prison in your hand.
I have a prediction. The US has over 800 military installations all around the world. Over half of them are not welcome by the populations in those regions particularly in the global south. I predict that soon those military installations will be forced to close and we will have hundreds of thousands of hard core trained killers flooding back into the US. Sure some will go to other bases and some were just paper pushers but still there will be hundreds of “soldiers” back home looking for work and would easily take work in what they have been trained to do.
Good Times Ahead!
Maybe not,
These are numbers from memory but they are close.
The US military has computed rounds expended compared to “kills” and it seem in WWII only about 5% resulted in kills. Upon further examination it was found soldiers aimed to “miss.” They did not want to kill other people.
The military(this is from memory) has found ways to train soldiers to shoot differently, more instinctual which increases the kill rate and appears to increase the PTS, people don’t want to kill others. Except perhaps:
fighter pilots, seals, rangers, etc.
It is probably coincidental that our tactics overall appear to be based on accuracy, e.g. our M775 is accurate but can only shoot 300 or so rounds due to barrel wear. Russia has gone the route of dropping so many shells on a given area not even a mouse has a chance, and it is anonymous.
We humans don’t like to kill one another; the famous Christmas instance in WWI where both sides left their trenches and sang Christmas Carols, there are other records of soldiers from opposite sides finding themselves in small groups opposing each other, armed, and they threw mud at one another and walked away.
We have people on this site who seem to like the idea of mass mayhem. I have seen battle casualties close up, VA during Viet Nam. It is sickening, saddening and very painful to see especially when the wife and young child is looking at what is left of dad.
We will adapt as necessary.
Dennis L.
Thanks Dennis I agree. The military has some of the finest people out there. There care a lot about humanity.. not trained robots. I worry about what happens to all the people in prison… they are the messed up ones
“Finest “……with respect, that is one of the greatest cons “civilized” existence has perpetrated.
All “control positions” from military to police to the entire farcical “justice system” are designed to breed hierarchical worms.
Without the backing of “ the gub mint” these types will prove to be as lacking in personal courage and fundamental soul as everyone else.
As the world implodes the prison types who are by and large highly successful in tribal politics and less afraid of personal conflict will completely outclass “ trained “ military types ( who are conformist to the core) let alone sheep-worm civilians.
The violence level and politicking inside a high medium security or high security prison is not seen or understood by either the masses or the overseers
Ages of Heros have more in kind to mountain man/prison culture and Germanic barbarians than uniform wearing stooges doing the bidding of the demiurge.
It is quite interesting if men cannot have sex or marry until he is able to afford a family. And young women could only marry men who could.
As a man cannot have sex and marry until age 30,35 or 40. Would probably work in a Malthusian situation.
Women usually do not want to marry men who cannot provide a reasonable income to support a family. It has gotten more and more expensive to support a family, and wages for many types of jobs have not kept up with the high cost of living.
I know that one of my grandfathers did not marry until he was 38 years old. He came over from Norway and it took a long time to get established in this country. His wife was quite a few years younger, so they were still able to have six children. The population at that time was too high for food supplies in Norway. Coming to the United States provided opportunities, but it took a while.
How old was she? I’m trying to figure out what sort of age differential I can aspire to 🙂
Take it from one who is an expert unfortunately.
Find other aspirations…..
If you are young enough and survive then there will be options after the cataclysm. In the modern intact world it is a recipe tor utter disaster in every single way.
+++++++++++++++
play
or find age appropriate
Both have advantages and disadvantages
You can find women much younger who like
you and appreciate you.
They will drop you like a stone for mr Right.
Even if he is an ass
Especially if he is an ass
Can you blame them?
Aim for the stars, Ivan. But I think your problem is that you don’t want to move a finger until 2024. You have to expend energy to find mates, even if indirectly.
You’re giving me a seemingly serious reply, but my statement about not lifting a finger was said in jest.
I’m working hard and know the clock is ticking and that every BAU day is a good day. Women are not a priority whatsoever right now.
I think you can count on 20 years younger easy. 30 years will require significant money on your part. Look at George Soros and shoot for the moon.
My one was half facetious too. But do shoot for the stars. They are not a priority but there are so many of them, and they never fail to be happy when you are nice to them.
“They never fail to be happy when you are nice to them.”
I like being nice to them because I fundamentally like women. The trouble is they want to be “dating” at least one notch above their league. Thats why if your dating 20 years younger some guy comes along with 5 years difference that treats them like poo they are gone. Treating them like poo assures them that they are dating at least one notch above their league. You are one notch below their league for every five years of age difference so treating them like poo doesnt work even if you wanted to.
Dating younger women you are like one of their best women friends with sex. Its great at first. Then the 2- 4x league difference bothers them. You have to make it up with sex and money and its just not worth it because the real basis of the attraction that makes it interesting is lost replaced with a standard you cant meet. A string of nice best friends with it real is not a bad thing however. Just know where the exit is, keep your expectations realistic and your pain minimal.
IMO old men should be grateful for charity and show it in all aspects. Your climbing into a boxing ring. Protect yourself at all times. If you dont you will get beat to a pulp. You might get beat to a pulp anyway if your a fool like me. Her friends will sabotage you. Your friends will sabotage you.
Women always choose. If they are interested they will let you know regardless of age. Pay attention to the fine print. Dont ever think your going to run off and live happily forever in never never land. Your not.
She was 29, also an immigrant from the same part of Norway.
9 years it is!
When in Yemen I had a guide sorting some stuff out for me (including where to buy Khat)… he told me he didn’t think he could ever get married cuz no $$$ and no prospects to make it.
I assume he’s dead now
https://i.postimg.cc/xTHfmkwb/yemen.png
13 in a row eddy
unlucky for some
(Reuters)
Ursula Von der Leyen on the Norway’s gas platform.
In Show of Unity, NATO and EU Heads Mark Historic Visit to North Sea Platform. TROLL A PLATFORM, North Sea, March 17 (Reuters) – The heads of NATO and the European Commission flew on Friday to a North Sea platform to discuss the security of supplies and infrastructure, a visit underlining Norway’s importance for gas shipments since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
https://gcaptain.com/in-show-of-unity-nato-and-eu-heads-mark-historic-visit-to-north-sea-platform/
Silicon Valley Bank’s UK subsidiary gave out $18 million in staff bonuses after being purchased by HSBC in a rescue deal.
REUTERS
Silicon Valley Bank’s UK subsidiary doled out over $18 million in bonuses this week—just days after HSBC swooped in as part of a rescue deal to save the institution from insolvency.
Payouts to staff, which included senior executives, were given the green light earlier this week by HSBC, SVB UK’s new owner, Sky News reported. HSBC purchased the American bank’s British arm for 1 British pound in a deal facilitated by the Bank of England after its parent company collapsed in a social-media fueled bank run.
The bonus pool was described as “modest,” ranging from $18 million to $24 million, sources told Sky News.
Insiders said that had SVB UK not been solvent at the time of the acquisition, the bonuses would not have been paid.
SVB staff in the United States also reportedly received annual bonuses, just hours before the bank collapsed on March 10.
No surprise here…cash and grab….they knew they would be bailed out like in 2008..
Rinse and Repeat….like someone posted until it becomes too big to save
Russia had 1450 operating airports at the beginning of 1990. Only 282 operating airports at 2016. And only 225 now. This is an example of simplification. Country with largest land coverage and decreasing number of operating airports as time goes by. The route network of the local (less 1 mil pop) airports is a pity.
True. but except for the lockdown year (2020) the number of passengers has gone up every year.
My main mission here is to keep Nuttie Eddie up to date on the NEXT MOON Landing
Countdown to History: NASA and CSA Set To Reveal Artemis II Moon Astronauts
During an event at NASA Johnson Space Center’s Ellington Field in Houston, NASA and CSA (Canadian Space Agency) will announce the four astronauts who will venture around the Moon. Traveling aboard NASA’s Orion spacecraft during Artemis II, the mission is the first crewed flight test on the agency’s path to establishing a long-term scientific and human presence on the lunar surface. The event will take place at 11 a.m. EDT (10 a.m. CDT) on Monday, April 3.
The event will air on NASA Television, the NASA app, and the agency’s website.
Hope this helps…of course NASA main reason was to be an pseudo arm of the war department for the Space Force and all this is a costume party show…
We have an acute and existential energy problem and we’re wasting enormous resources on stuff like this? Bring on the collapse already, we deserve it.
A woman, an African, a Trans, and a non binary?
Can we make space for a NOF?
The hidden truth on Covid19 and the Apollo cover-ups……
“Correspondence between Dr. Faucki and NASA reveal that Faucki was trying to gain possession of the viruses that had been brought to Earth by the Apollo missions.
To say this virus was novel is something of an understatement. It has not existed on Earth since the Moon was formed. That is until Neil Armstrong took a giant step for mankind and stepped on to the Moon and put his boot onto a pile of Lunar bat shit.”
“So, to cover their tracks on the Earthly contamination by the Lunar viruses, they started the conspiracy that they never actually went to the Moon. They got that movie guy to come up with a bunch of stuff to cast question on the films they had and they threw out all the plans and records of the Apollo virus fiasco.”
https://eknock.substack.com/p/luna-cov-69
Could our 1500HP OFW Do Da Day, FE, be part of the cover-up??
LOL!
3 scenarios I have experienced:
1. At rally – random attendee starts yelling slurs at person across invocation prayer circle to start fight and then makes direct eye contact with me.
2. In private group discussion – member constantly distracts from unity of purpose with hyperactive, accusatory or eccentric behavior; individual starts rumors within leadership circle to undermine the group.
3. In person – random person uses mirroring techniques and gains trust with mention of some person, place or thing.. claims to attend same college, have mutual friend or references some recent dilemma, phrase or internet search.
A relative of mine is a member of the Unitarian Church where sometimes they engage in activism – environmental or cultural, typically.
They’ve had some similar experiences with a weirdo showing up and trying to instigate violent plans etc.
It seems that attempted embedding of agent provocateurs is standard government operating procedure. In this context it was markedly absurd – the church group consisted of middle-aged upper-middle-class women.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/current-account
The US Current Account Deficit was about $1T in 2022. This while the Fed was doing QT could perhaps be the cause of the liquidity crunch? A huge Current Account Deficit and QT is lethal combination?
“No Virus” Goes International
I know this is controversial and a lot of people don’t want to touch the subject or hear about it. But given that fascismo has come to the West dressed in a white coat and carrying a syringe, you better be open to the possibility that a lot of what we’ve all be taught about medicine and health over the past century has been erroneous. For instance, it turns out that egg yolks are not responsible for giving people high cholesterol after all. But I digress.
Dr. Sam Bailey introduces some of the scientists, doctors, researchers, academics, experts and inquiring minds who have come to the conclusion that viruses are not all that they have been made out to be under the Rockefeller Medicine Complex. In particular, she looks at what has been going on with regard to the existence of SARS-Cov-2.
Warning, Norman may find some of the statements in this video disturbing.
https://rumble.com/v2c7lum-no-virus-goes-international.html
What is sad is that most PhD scientists can not make the connection between the basic principles of biology (Darwinism) and the recommendations of the allopathic mafia. Even when it is their own health or that of their children at stake. Nearly no one in the West, and very few in the world, have free will.
“Nearly no one in the West, and very few in the world, have free will.” This may be secondary to the way our brains are wired; this is influenced by my belief we are part of the fabric of the universe, an extreme example is no matter how much we want to fly, a jump from a building leads to limited flight time.
Scientists need grants, one gets along by going along unless your are Elon Musk – he is a very unusual man and does have free will – he wants to go to Mars, he is somehow financing a very large rocket.
Darwinism was a significant effort which should not be trashed, but the Cretaceous Period seems to be inconsistent with this idea.
Dennis L.
It is impossible that in the cretaceous life evolved differently.
I will review the site. It is perhaps relevant that magnetic analysis of crustal plates reveal that it was in the Cretaceous that the massive expansion of this planet truly took off.
From 100 million years bp until today earth has grown massively larger.
The magnetic evidence is impossible to refute.
The mechanism however remains elusive. A plasmoid at the core perhaps feeding off cosmic dust and the impacts of cyclical solar outbursts?
The keeper of the calendar knows of course, but it ain’t talking.
just as an observation, I would have said that Musk’s, (and Bezos’ et al) finances are supported by the miniscule inputs of the rest of us.
Not altogether sure how Darwin’s work is at odds withe Cretaceious period
From an “Uncommon Knowledge” podcast.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXexaVsvhCM
It is interesting and being an intuitive, he affirms my intuition, so my disclaimer.
If I understand the arguments correctly, Cretaceious did not evolve, it exploded and came into being.
If someone is tweaking the universe, the Chicxulub was a convenient way to restart life by getting rid of very successful dinosaurs; after all they gave us fossil fuels-can’t resist, I now better but it is such a nice, warm fuzzy story.
Uncommon Knowledge has some very interesting guests.
Dennis L.
ohhhh, creationism.
as i understand it Dennis, the Chicklub did not ‘restart’ life, it killed off numerous old forms of life leaving opportunities for life forms that, until then, were restricted by the much bigger dinosaur forms.
Immediately post-chicklub, life was very tough, obviously, but smaller critters had the advantage, in not needing such a colossal daily food input.
”exploded and came into being”—certainly contradicts Darwin, but it still has no credibility. It rather puts me in mind of Ken Ham and his notions on the subject.
there has been no discontinuity of some form of life of earth since the end of the Hadean era,
The mass extinction left many ecological niches empty and available for the survivors to radiate into via normal evolution. The word explode is a figure of speech meaning the rate of new species formation was higher then normal due to the newly available uncontested resources.
A phd is not a measure of true intelligence… it does mean one gets classified as a circus animal.
Don’t expect much beyond complex tricks that take years to learn
Kinda like a parrot
Schad time again!
It’s always very schad when someone collapses live on air.
This time it’s a weather lady.
And the anchor’s reaction is to shout, “Oh no, not again…”
Hahahahahaha !
First off you gotta love all the plastic surgery in that newsroom. It’s so LA !
Second, that’s the kind of sh*t that makes me happy, even happier than FE trolling norm.
The “no not again” was just her seguing into the weather report LA has had an historically wet winter and more is on its way, thus, “no, not again.”
I believe RE is correct.
This sudden death stands out because of the contrast between the plastic MSM and the horrible and gruesome rolling back of the eyes. Plastic MSM vs reality of the “sudden deaths”. The relationship between the eyes and the soul is one of the things that has never been quantified by science.
People dont die easily. There are not many things that just end a person like snapping a finger. Even a massive artery leak blood pressure loss takes some seconds. In those seconds the persons is still there.
These deaths have characteristics that are unnatural. Suddenness with no bad health. The strange spinning. The moments when something is in control of their body but they are gone. What is in control for those seconds seems quite unfamiliar with the body like a human non pilot teleported to the controls of a fighter jet. What is this lever? Lets pull on it. AHHH that was part of eye motor control. THen the jet crashes. The human is gone but the body is a play thing for a few seconds.. Autonomic nervous system? Maybe. We observe these deaths and know what we observe is unnatural. We know what we observe is disturbing. We experience cognitive dissonance and rationalize it by the thought that all death is disturbing discarding our actual observations. There are no rational explanations for what we observe so we create them.
Why just then? Just as the “death” is visible by millions. Not before. Not during breakfast. Not putting on make up. RIGHT THEN. “Your on” takes a whole new meaning.
This is not the process of death we are used to where the consciousness of the person is attached to body until it leaves. Everyone reading this knows what I am writing is true yet I am the first to write it? Why is that? The injected dont want to accept their observations because it the most frightening thing of their life. The uninjected dont want to accept their observations because that would threaten their smug belief they are safe. Both avoid cognitive dissonance to maintain paradigm because there are no rational explanations for what we observe.
I’ve spoken to a few Multi Rat Juiced im-beciles… who admit to ‘not feeling right … not feeling well’ since the injections.
I wonder if all the Rat Juiced feel like that – but don’t admit it…. I think that is a distinct possibility…
As for that clip – hopefully she dies — then we know she wasn’t faking.
Maybe… maybe not…
Could be the PR Team mocking the MOREONS — oh no not another collapse! — of course they know they will never connect the dots cuz they are Dum. The PR Team can run them around by the noses like simpletons
Hmmm…. I didn’t pay attention to that line … rewatching … there is that + their reaction … a bit too sanguine…
But then perhaps they don’t like the weather lady and were pleased to see her collapse?
Impossible to know but I this look staged
Terrifying moment LA weather forecaster’s eyes roll to the back of her head before she collapses on live TV
https://www.tmz.com/2023/03/18/cbs-los-angeles-kcal-meteorologist-alissa-carlson-faints-tv/
Holy Mother of god!
You beat me to it!
I was thinking, did she really faint or was this a play act to get a bit of publicity for the program? Looks kinda scripted to me.
It certainly could have been 3-2-1 … collapse… cut.
Who knows.
https://c.tenor.com/6vvL7C_nd74AAAAC/tenor.gif
She won’t connect the dots – and will get the next booster
https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1637064426908942336?cxt=HHwWgICwhYfbgrgtAAAA
Commercial Real Estate is a problem with 50% of offices standing empty. The regional banks hold most of that debt. Non Performing Loans are going to hit them soon. The markets are supposed to be forward looking…so the time to take the money and run is now?
” Signature was in the commercial real estate business in New York City”
The office real estate market is way overbuilt. The Mall space for stores is overbuilt. In fact, store space in general is overbuilt. The amount of church space is overbuilt, too.
I can see the commercial real estate collapse spreading farther and farther as time goes on. Needless to say, this will adversely affect lenders. Collateral is worth far less than the amount of outstanding loan in many cases.
This is probably in part secondary to technology.
Stores are easy, Amazon; even if it is not cheaper, it is quicker and items are easier to find than on shelves except for a consistent shopper.
Offices: Virtual reality may be changing things here, the venues continue to grow in sophistication and AI could be a game changer giving real time information to the recipient on what the sender is really thinking. End result is my AI is smarter than your AI.
Education: once credentialing is done, advanced education is over except for the exceptional, MIT. I do not like online, it is a patch work and hard to follow compared to a book with problems and an answer source. But, for any math problem AI can walk me through the process if my goal is learning; it is the long sought goal of individualized instruction, but the teacher has no billable hours, bummer.
Personal impression on education. MIT has opencourse ware which is now being “played” with, previous lectures broken up, etc. Take the old lectures, use AI for the parts not easily understood, varies by learner, use a good text book with problem sets and it works; go fast where understand, stop, slow down where it is a challenge. .
We adapt, interesting times.
Dennis L.
Amazon style shopping is feasible because have sufficient cheap surplus energ y to make it happen.
AI has little to do with it
A midi sized van diverting a mile to bring me a £1 parcel is the stuff of ultimate economic madness
More efficient than someone driving to get it.
agreed, but seems to be short term thinking
60 years ago i walked, or caught a bus to get it, or more likelty. did without.
100 years ago by grandparents, or earler, gg grandparents walked to get stuff that was made mostly within that walking distance.
We have created the ”consumer economy” that can only exist by that need to get hold of ”stuff” as often as possible, as quickly as possible
that has been the ultimate inefficiency
norm… you strike me as someone who’s not ventured much further than the local Dumpster… or perhaps boarded an all you can eat cruise…
Share with us your travels norm.
Not until you share your news sources eddy
agreed
Did you know that herb stein’s son is
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0091042/characters/nm0825401
https://youtu.be/AyyAh2lQXF8
Justin Bieber is all smiles with facial paralysis update
https://www.kbtx.com/2023/03/17/justin-bieber-is-all-smiles-with-facial-paralysis-update/
Pure horror.
Didn’t the Beav sell his entire music catalog recently? Usually, only old has been singers that are old do that!!
Must be hard up for cash…
Bieber, at the age of 28, has sold his rights to all the music he released before 2022 for a reported US$200m. Merck Mercuriadis, founder and chief executive officer of Hipgnosis Song Management, who bought the rights, said: “This acquisition ranks among the biggest deals ever made for an artist under the age of 70.”Feb 1, 2023
Get the cash now before it turns into confetti…smart beaver
Maybe the injury red-pilled him.
He will not perform again so his value will just sink from here and in. Sell now.
That’s a better explanation.
He’s shorting himself… I wonder how much of that 200M he gets… record company likely takes a big hunk
How about that – both him and the wife Vax F789ed. And so young
nice
That narrative doesn’t even represent the beginning of the journey. It represents nothing more than societal disillusionment. People spend their whole lives in that place. It doesn’t mean shit. The urban mind is a prison for the mind because the city is a prison for the body.
CNN)The chief of Russia’s Wagner private military group Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on Saturday that he plans to recruit about 30,000 new fighters by mid-May, according to a voice message published on Telegram.
Prigozhin also claimed Wagner recruits about 500 to 800 people on average per day, sometimes up to 1,200 people per day.
“It is possible that this number of recruits may decrease after some time; however, by the middle of May, we plan that the number of fighters of the unit will increase by approximately 30,000,” Prigozhin said in an audio message.
Wagner is a mercenary company run by Prigozhin, who has been highly visible on the frontlines in recent months — and always quick to claim credit for Russian advances.
The group is renowned for its blunt and brutal tactics, and for showing little regard for the lives of its own soldiers. Lieutenant General Mark Hertling described its tactics in eastern Ukraine as “like feeding meat to a meat grinder.”
Last week, Prigozhin said that Wagner had opened recruitment efforts in 42 cities in Russia.
Wagner has focused its attention on recruiting mercenaries from sports clubs, boxing gyms, and other gyms, as well as men who have previously completed six-month contracts and could be rehired. Wagner has also recruited a small number of foreign fighters.
CNN previously reported that Wagner said it stopped recruiting from prisons in January. The prison recruitment campaign was well publicized and widespread, netting as many as 40,000 fighters for Wagner last year.
But many of the private military group’s recruits have been killed or wounded in heavy fighting around the city of Bakhmut, the scene of a months-long battle.
That the group is seeking tens of thousands of new fighters suggests that it has sustained major losses in the conflict.
Earlier this month, Prigozhin acknowledged that the situation in Bakhmut was “difficult, very difficult, with the enemy fighting each other for each meter.”
Yep, this look more and more like Nam to me but in a different window
Snazzy Wagner recruitment video. They churn them out.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/JG7KCVwLzysi/
Wagner tried recruiting on pornhub and was run off.
Wagner boss declares run for president 2024.
Total ape compared to putin. Can you imagine this guy
with the launch codes? They want Putin gone.
Be careful what you ask for.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/Ulvmp7ahvxAx/
Wagner trolls USA military. Hard to watch.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/YpK9ZfDlWkXY/
Russia civilians are way pissed. I think there is a significant chance a hardliner gets voted in in 2024. The Wagner videos show USA flags alongside not zee flags. Consider what that means considering Russias history. Ukraine is mentioned only with reference to USA. The enemy is portrayed as the USA. This corresponds to McGregors comments. Russia civilians are enraged at the USA. Putin actually is toning down his comments in regard to the USA purportedly to try calm the civilian population.
I think that could be a good call about a hardliner. Definitely seems like an option. His 2024 candidacy would serve as a foil for Tulsi’s candidacy. Both soldiers and hardliners fighting for peace, one militarily and the other politically.
Regarding Putin, that’s suggestive to me of my belief that he is a key figure in the non-public global Degrowth Agenda (DA). By moderating the Russian nation as he has been, he’s a one-man Feathering Mechanism for the DA. Feathering mechanisms are timing mechanisms.
how many generations of ”us” have there been since we could conceivably call ourselves ”human”–?
200000?
that would be maybe a million years worth of humans, give or take
In all that time, we have seriously collaborated only in the business of acquiring energy resources for self or tribe, or both.
Without exception. it has never been enough and we have finished up fighting over more, to get more.
i think it is stretching things a bit far, to expect us to change, in a single generation, to something that might result in something that would benefit humankind en masse.
so no–there is no ”Degrowth Agenda”
Yes. there will be degrowth, but it will not be of our choosing, and it will be unpleasant for all of us.
you’re out of your depth, norm.
that the best rebuttal you can come up with reante?
when i’m said to be out of my depth, i prefer to be told so by someone not clinging to the liferaft of fantasy and makebelieve
Well, you are right there will be fighting over resources. There already is, including fifth generation warfare.
And the main sides are, as it usually is, the rulers against the ruled.
The Wagner troll needs serious work. General message fine but the images used need much much work. Not to mention the voice over needs to sound real.
CNN has such an impartial framing of the situation. Only the truth from CNN.
Not like those Ruskies, who are supposedly dying in droves.
(Despite having a massive artillery and air support advantage).
(Despite creating a cauldron around Bakhmut that Z keeps sending poorly trained reservists into.)
Honestly…
I wonder is Zelenski being bribed by the Russians to keep sending soldiers to the former city of Bakhmut to die?
You know, it would kind of make sense:
“Jewish comedian sends Nazi sympathizers to their deaths by the hundreds of thousands and gets rich in the process.”
Sweet
Are You a Novid, or COVID Super-Dodger—Someone Who’s Never Had COVID?
Stories of those who’ve somehow avoided the virus seem impossible to fathom now that three years have passed since it first started spreading around the world in early 2020. But for scientists, these so-called “super-dodgers,” or Novids, or COVID virgins, as some are calling them, are important research subjects.
https://www.bu.edu/articles/2023/are-you-a-novid-covid-super-dodger-science-has-clueswhy/#:~:text=Stories%20of%20those%20who%27ve,them%2C%20are%20important%20research%20subjects.
Do your f***** research!
Page is gone. What are the chances
https://www.bu.edu/articles/2023/are-you-a-novid-covid-super-dodger-science-has-clues-why
Here it is.
Given the confidence that people have now on those researchers I doubt that novid people will go to them to let themselves be studied.
It does not seem to be well understood, but some people simply don’t get it, literally and metaphorically. I am old, a couple of pre conditions, have never once tested positive, pcr and swabs. I am out, always have been out with large groups, nothing.
Bugs are part of us, we live together in one body; sometimes one gets overly ambitions, the other puts things in place and all is well with the universe.
Dennis L.
i’m the same—i like to think my fitness regime has helped to avoid it–but fitness freaks get it too—so what is it?
i met someone, the other day who hadnt seen me for 20 years—her reaction was—what the hell are you on?. (Weve known each other for 80 years)
Could it be mental attitude?—hard to say