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Most people have a simple, but wrong, idea about how the world economy will respond to “not enough energy to go around.” They expect that oil prices will rise. With these higher prices, producers will be able to extract more fossil fuels so the system can go on as before. They also believe that wind turbines, solar panels and other so-called renewables can be made with these fossil fuels, perhaps extending the life of the system further.
The insight people tend to miss is the fact that the world’s economy is a physics-based, self-organizing system. Such economies grow for many years, but ultimately, they collapse. The underlying problem is that the population tends to grow too rapidly relative to the energy supplies necessary to support that population. History shows that such collapses take place over a period of years. The question becomes: What happens to an economy beginning its path toward full collapse?
One of the major uses for fossil fuel energy is to add complexity to the system. For example, roads, electricity transmission lines, and long-distance trade are forms of complexity that can be added to the economy using fossil fuels.
When energy per capita falls, it becomes increasingly difficult to maintain the complexity that has been put in place. It becomes too expensive to properly maintain roads, electrical services become increasingly intermittent, and trade is reduced. Long waits for replacement parts become common. These little problems build on one another to become bigger problems. Eventually, major parts of the world’s economy start failing completely.
When people forecast ever-rising energy prices, they miss the fact that market fossil fuel prices consider both oil producers and consumers. From the producer’s point of view, the price for oil needs to be high enough that new oil fields can be profitably developed. From the consumer’s point of view, the price of oil needs to be sufficiently low that food and other goods manufactured using oil products are affordable. In practice, oil prices tend to rise and fall, and rise again. On average, they don’t satisfy either the oil producers or the consumers. This dynamic tends to push the economy downward.
There are many other changes, as well, as fossil fuel energy per capita falls. Without enough energy products to go around, conflict tends to rise. Economic growth slows and turns to economic contraction, creating huge strains for the financial system. In this post, I will try to explain a few of the issues involved.
[1] What is complexity?
Complexity is anything that gives structure or organization to the overall economic system. It includes any form of government or laws. The educational system is part of complexity. International trade is part of complexity. The financial system, with its money and debt, is part of complexity. The electrical system, with all its transmission needs, is part of complexity. Roads, railroads, and pipelines are part of complexity. The internet system and cloud storage are part of complexity.
Wind turbines and solar panels are only possible because of complexity and the availability of fossil fuels. Storage systems for electricity, food, and fossil fuels are all part of complexity.
With all this complexity, plus the energy needed to support the complexity, the economy is structured in a very different way than it would be without fossil fuels. For example, without fossil fuels, a high percentage of workers would make a living by performing subsistence agriculture. Complexity, together with fossil fuels, allows the wide range of occupations that are available today.
[2] The big danger, as energy consumption per capita falls, is that the economy will start losing complexity. In fact, there is some evidence that loss of complexity has already begun.
In my most recent post, I mentioned that Professor Joseph Tainter, author of the book, The Collapse of Complex Societies, says that when energy supplies are inadequate, the resulting economic system will need to simplify–in other words, lose some of its complexity. In fact, we can see that such loss of complexity started happening as early as the Great Recession in 2008-2009.
The world was on a fossil fuel energy consumption per capita plateau between 2007 and 2019. It now seems to be in danger of falling below this level. It fell in 2020, and only partially rebounded in 2021. When it tried to rebound further in 2022, it hit high price limits, reducing demand.
There was a big dip in energy consumption per capita in 2008-2009 when the economy encountered the Great Recession. If we compare Figure 2 and Figure 3, we see that the big drop in energy consumption is matched by a big drop in trade as a percentage of GDP. In fact, the drop in trade after the 2008-2009 recession never rebounded to the former level.
Another type of loss of complexity involves the drop in the recent number of college students. The number of students was rising rapidly between 1950 and 2010, so the downward trend represents a significant shift.
The shutdowns of 2020 added further shifts toward less complexity. Broken supply lines became more of a problem. Empty shelves in stores became common, as did long waits for newly ordered appliances and replacement parts for cars. People stopped buying as many fancy clothes. Brick and mortar stores did less well financially. In person conferences became less popular.
We know that, in the past, economies that collapsed lost complexity. In some cases, tax revenue fell too low for governments to maintain their programs. Citizens became terribly unhappy with the poor level of government services being provided, and they overthrew the governmental system.
The US Department of Energy states that it will be necessary to double or triple the size of the US electric grid to accommodate the proposed level of clean energy, including EVs, by 2050. This is, of course, a kind of complexity. If we are already having difficulty with maintaining complexity, how do we expect to double or triple the size of the US electric grid? The rest of the world would likely need such an upgrade, as well. A huge increase in fossil fuel energy, as well as complexity, would be required.
[3] The world’s economy is a physics-based system, called a dissipative structure.
Energy products of the right kinds are needed to make goods and services. With shrinking per capita energy, there will likely not be enough goods and services produced to maintain consumption at the level citizens are used to. Without enough goods and services to go around, conflict tends to grow.
Instead of growing and experiencing economies of scale, businesses will find that they need to shrink back. This makes it difficult to repay debt with interest, among other things. Governments will likely need to cut back on programs. Some governmental organizations may fail completely.
To a significant extent, how these changes happen is related to the maximum power principle, postulated by ecologist Howard T. Odum. Even when some inputs are inadequate, self-organizing ecosystems try to maintain themselves, as best possible, with the reduced supplies. Odum said, “During self-organization, system designs develop and prevail that maximize power intake, energy transformation, and those uses that reinforce production and efficiency.” As I see the situation, the self-organizing economy tends to favor the parts of the economy that can best handle the energy shortfall that will be taking place.
In Sections [4], [5], and [6], we will see that this methodology seems to lead to a situation in which competition leads to different parts of the economy (energy producers and energy consumers) being alternately disadvantaged. This approach leads to a situation in which the human population declines more slowly than in either of the other possible outcomes:
- Energy producers win, and high energy prices prevail – The real outcome would be that high prices for food and heat for homes would quickly kill off much of the world’s population because of lack of affordability.
- Energy consumers always win, and low energy prices prevail – The real outcome would be that energy supplies would fall very rapidly because of inadequate prices. Population would fall quickly because of a lack of energy supplies (particularly diesel fuel) needed to maintain food supplies.
[4] Prices: Competition between producers and customers will lead to fossil fuel energy prices that alternately rise and fall as extraction limits are hit. In time, this pattern can be expected to lead to falling fossil fuel energy production.
Energy prices are set through competition between:
[a] The prices that consumers can afford to pay for end products whose costs are indirectly determined by fossil fuel prices. Food, transportation, and home heating costs are especially fossil fuel price sensitive. Poor people are the most quickly affected by rising fossil fuel prices.
[b] The prices that producers require to profitably produce these fuels. These prices have been rising rapidly because the easy-to-extract portions were removed earlier. For example, the Wall Street Journal is reporting, “Frackers Increase Spending but See Limited Gains.”
If fossil fuel prices rise, the indirect result is inflation in the cost of many goods and services. Consumers become unhappy when inflation affects their lifestyles. They may demand that politicians put price caps in place to somehow stop this inflation. They may encourage politicians to find ways to subsidize costs, so that the higher costs are transferred to a different part of the economy. At the same time, the producers need the high prices, to be able to fund the greater reinvestment necessary to maintain, and even raise, future fossil fuel energy production.
The conflict between the high price producers need and the low prices that many consumers can afford is what leads to temporarily spiking energy prices. In fact, food prices tend to spike, too, since food is a kind of energy product for humans, and fossil fuel energy products (oil, especially) are used in growing and transporting the food products. In their book, Secular Cycles, researchers Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov report a pattern of spiking prices in their analysis of historical economies that eventually collapsed.
With oil prices spiking only temporarily, energy prices are, on average, too low for fossil fuel producers to afford adequate funds for reinvestment. Without adequate funds for reinvestment, production begins to fall. This is especially a problem as fields deplete, and funds needed for reinvestment rise to very high levels.
[5] Demand for Discretionary Goods and Services: Indirectly, demand for goods and services, especially in discretionary sectors of the economy, will also tend to get squeezed back by the rounds of inflation caused by spiking energy prices described in Item [4].
When customers are faced with higher prices because of spiking inflation rates, they will tend to reduce spending on discretionary items. For example, they will go out to eat less and spend less money at hair salons. They may travel less on vacation. Multiple generation families may move in together to save money. People will continue to buy food and beverages since these are essential.
Businesses in discretionary areas of the economy will be affected by this lower demand. They will buy fewer raw materials, including energy products, reducing the overall demand for energy products, and tending to pull energy prices down. These businesses may need to lay off workers and/or default on their debt. Laying off workers may further reduce demand for goods and services, pushing the economy toward recession, debt defaults, and thus lower energy prices.
We find that in some historical accounts of collapses, demand ultimately falls to close to zero. For example, see Revelation 18:11-13 regarding the fall of Babylon, and the lack of demand for goods, including the energy product of the day: slaves.
[6] Higher Interest Rates: Banks will respond to rounds of inflation described in Item [4] by demanding higher interest rates to offset the loss of buying power and the greater likelihood of default. These higher interest rates will have adverse impacts of their own on the economy.
If inflation becomes a problem, banks will want higher interest rates to try to offset the adverse impact of inflation on buying power. These higher interest rates will tend to reduce demand for goods that are often bought with debt, such as homes, cars, and new factories. As a result, the sale prices of these assets are likely to fall. Higher interest rates will tend to produce the same effect for many types of assets, including stocks and bonds. To make matters worse, defaults on loans may also rise, leading to write-offs for the organizations carrying these loans on their balance sheets. For example, the used car dealer Caravan is reported to be near bankruptcy because of issues related to falling used car prices, higher interest rates, and higher default rates on debt.
An even more serious problem with higher interest rates is the harm they do to the balance sheets of banks, insurance companies, and pension funds. If bonds were previously purchased at a lower interest rate, the value of the bonds is less at a higher interest rate. Accounting for these organizations can temporarily hide the problem if interest rates quickly revert to the lower level at which they were purchased. The real problem occurs if inflation is persistent, as it seems to be now, or if interest rates keep rising.
[7] A second major conflict (after the buyer/producer conflict in Item [4], [5], and [6]) is the conflict in how the output of goods and services should be split between returns to complexity and returns to basic production of necessary goods including food, water, and mineral resources such as fossil fuels, iron, nickel, copper, and lithium.
Growing complexity in many forms is something that we have come to value. For example, physicians now earn high wages in the US. People in top management positions in companies often earn very high wages. The top people in large companies that buy food from farmers earn high wages, but farmers producing cattle or growing crops don’t fare nearly as well.
As energy supply becomes more constrained, the huge chunks of output taken by those with advanced degrees and high positions within the large companies gets to be increasingly problematic. The high incomes of citizens in major cities contrasts with the low incomes in rural areas. Resentment among people living in rural areas grows when they compare themselves to how well people in urbanized areas are doing. People in rural areas talk about wanting to secede from the US and wanting to form their own country.
There are also differences among countries in how well their economies get rewarded for the goods and services they produce. The United States, the EU, and Japan have been able to get better rewards for the complex goods that they produce (such as banking services, high-tech medicine, and high-tech agricultural products) compared to Russia and the oil exporting countries of the Middle East. This is another source of conflict.
Comparing countries in terms of per capita GDP on a Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) basis, we find that the countries that focus on complexity have significantly higher PPP GDP per capita than the other areas listed. This creates resentment among countries with lower per-capita PPP GDP.
Russia and the Arab World, with all their energy supplies, come out behind. Ukraine does particularly poorly.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is between two countries that are doing poorly on this metric. Ukraine is also much smaller than Russia. It appears that Russia is in a conflict with a competitor that it is likely to be able to defeat, unless NATO members, including the US, can give immense support to Ukraine. As I discuss in the next section, the industrial ability of the US and the EU is waning, making it difficult for such support to be available.
[8] As conflict becomes a major issue, which economy is largest and is best able to defend itself becomes more important.
Back in 1990, the EU had a greater PPP GDP than did either the US or China. Now, the US is a little ahead of the EU. More importantly, China has come from way behind both the US and EU, and now is clearly ahead of both in PPP GDP.
We often hear that the US is the largest economy, but this is only true if GDP is measured in current US dollars. If differences in actual purchasing power are reflected, China is significantly ahead. China is also far ahead in total electricity production and in many types of industrial output, including cement, steel, and rare earth minerals.
The conflict in Ukraine is now leading countries to take sides, with Russia and China on the same side, and the United States together with the EU on Ukraine’s side. While the US has many military bases around the world, its military capabilities have increasingly been stretched thin. The US is a major oil producer, but the mix of oil it produces is of lower and lower average quality, especially if obtaining diesel and jet fuel from it are top priorities.
Huge pressure is building now for China and Russia to trade in their own currencies, rather than the US dollar, putting pressure on the US financial system and its status as the reserve currency. It is also not clear whether the US would be able to fight on more than one front in a conventional war. A conflict with Iran has been mentioned as a possibility, as has a conflict with China over Taiwan. It is not at all clear that a conflict between NATO and China-Russia is winnable by the NATO forces, including the US.
It appears to me that, to save fuel, more regionalization of trade is necessary with the Asian countries being primary trading partners of each other, rather than the rest of the world. If such a regionalization takes place, the US will be at a disadvantage. It currently depends on supply lines stretching around the world for computers, cell phones, and other high-tech devices. Without these supply lines, the standards of living in the US and the EU would likely decline quickly.
[9] Clearly, the narratives that politicians and the news media tell citizens are under pressure. Even if they understand the true situation, politicians need a different narrative to tell voters and young people wondering about what career to pursue.
Every politician would like a “happily ever after” story to tell citizens. Fortunately, from the point of view of politicians, there are lots of economists and scientists who put together what I call “overly simple” models of the economy. With these overly simple models of the economy, there is no problem ahead. They believe the standard narrative about oil and other energy prices rising indefinitely, so there is no energy problem. Instead, our only problem is climate change and the need to transition to green energy.
The catch is that our ability to scale up green energy is just an illusion, built on the belief that complexity can scale up indefinitely without the use of fossil fuels.
We are left with a major problem: Our current complex economy is in danger of degrading remarkably in the next few years, but we have no replacement available. Even before then, we may need to do battle, in new ways, with other countries for the limited resources that are available.
If I saw a CV come in with pronouns other than she or he… https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/45857
It would go here:
https://www.photos-public-domain.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/garbage-cans-overflowing.jpg
Some people say hindsight is 20/20.
That does not exempt them from not seeing things which any thinking person could have seen it 100 miles away.
Was it right for the people in the First World to let the third world develop their own industries and let them ride in automobiles?
In retrospect, no.
If they were given one TV per town (only to put govt propaganda), one phone per 100 people, of course no smartphones, etc or countries in the bottom 80% per capita of world GDP rankings, none of today’s issues would have been relevant now.
They also wouldn’t be making our cell phones and computers. We would not be able to afford any of these things, if we had to make them ourselves, with our depleted resources and high priced labor.
AI, robotics. We would miss cell phones as not made, seems Nokia was not in a poor country. First computers were made in US I believe, IBM and the AMSAI I had in the days of 8″ flopies and it didn’t even start a major war with it.
Have no idea on how economics works going forward; economics is not biology, fabric of the universe worked very hard to get a biologically active planet.
They will think of something.
Dennis L.
Or, the cheaper solution is making the workers toil to death.
If they had been nicer to the workers there would have been no industrial revolution to begin with.
When there is not enough to go around (worse sometimes than others), it is difficult to be nice to workers. Someone has to come out with too little to survive on.
I am always amazed how bright folks cannot grasp that we can’t dissect our current advanced demonic economy and keep just what we want.
Even back to land types who say we can adopt Amish ways go blank when I point out that even the Amish are dependent on industrial blast furnaces to make the steel for horse drawn equipment.
After the solar blast and the cataclysm we will be Stone Age/salvage “economy”……
Functioning Electronics will not never seen again by humans in this cycle of the simulacrum.
I’m ill-suited for stone age living … I prefer Super Fent
I reckon the “simulacrum” got to do without me as well, and wouldn’t that be a relief?
*Boom* aaand it’s GONE!
Like it never happened at all.
Thing is with death is that one isn’t aware of it happening.
All those memories and possessions, not even irrelevant. Just…
*Boom* aaand it’s GONE!
https://youtu.be/-DT7bX-B1Mg
😮💨👍👍
The Swiss National Bank and the country’s regulator FINMA said Credit Suisse meets the capital and liquidity requirements imposed on systemically important banks and that the SNB will provide the bank with liquidity if necessary, in a statement. (BBG)
Fine… I’ll put all money into that bank…and they even offer 6.5% in interest for new depositors
We will have to wait and see what happens. There are a lot of other banks in poor condition in Europe in poor condition. At some point, treating them all extraordinarily well will lead to inflation, I expect. It can’t go on indefinitely, but perhaps it can go on for a while.
Hopefully this is on a scale that is too big to deal with.
I kinda wanna see what ROF looks like
Peak sanity. Posters who used to be serious and thoughtful are now wacko
Ed,
Not sure, when the impossible is eliminated there is no harm in looking elsewhere.
This whole thing is going to come unglued, but my thesis is it will not end, but change. We adapt.
Dennis L.
People have lived through pretty terrible circumstances in the past. They lived through ice ages. A small number (compared to our current population) lived without fossil fuels.
And they weren’t doomsday preppers!
Still time to take a quick hunter gatherer course and move to borneo
I highly recommend a stop in Miri — lots of surprisingly hot chickies in the clubs…
an ice age takes maybe 5000years to come to peak
there were maybe a million of us, if that.
as it got gradually colder, we just moved–we had no choice, because our energy resources moved to where it was warmer as well.
then when the ice receded, we just moved back again, it wasn’t some sort of conscious decision–just force of circumstance.—of which our ancestors would be totally unaware.
Who are you talking about? Everyone is crazy here. Some even believe in the peak oil conspiracy!
Live coverage https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/credit-suisse-shares-plunge-to-record-low-as-top-shareholder-rules-out-investing-more-%E2%80%93-business-live/ar-AA18DPP1
Even if it’s not collapse — at least it’s exciting… dancing along the knife edge of doomsday.
What telegram groups should we be following for moment to moment banking stability issues?
Ed Dowd
I agree. Ed Dowd is good.
I am absolutely convinced that there was a release but from multiple locations, labs, MULTIPLE across the world; nothing worked because they released something that was mild non-lethal from day 1
https://palexander.substack.com/p/i-am-absolutely-convinced-that-there
That’s what they did in Utopia…
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
💤💤💤💤💤💤💤💤💤💤💤💤💤💤
Clever, getting more z’s in less time.
Dennis L.
If thinking people learned only one thing from the covid pandemic, it was that official government narratives are politically slanted and often untrue. In this latest HPAI outbreak, perhaps the most egregious departure from truth is the notion that the birds have died as a result of the disease and that euthanasia for survivors is the best and only option.
First, of the nearly 60 million claimed deaths, perhaps no more than a couple million have actually died from HPAI. The rest have been killed in a draconian sterilization protocol. Using the word euthanized rather than the more proper word exterminated clouds the actual story. Euthanizing refers to putting an animal out of its misery. In other words, it’s going to die and is in pain or an incurable condition.
The policy of mass extermination without regard to immunity, without even researching why some birds flourish while all around are dying, is insane. The most fundamental principles of animal husbandry and breeding demand that farmers select for healthy immune systems. We farmers have been doing that for millennia. We pick the most robust specimens as genetic material to propagate, whether it’s plants, animals, or microbes.
But in its wisdom, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA—Usduh) has no interest in selecting, protecting, and then propagating the healthy survivors. The policy is clear and simple: kill everything that ever contacted the diseased birds. The second part of the policy is also simple: find a vaccine to stop HPAI.
https://rwmalonemd.substack.com/p/why-are-the-chickens-so-sick
Remember that people are trying to make money off of HPAI. Figuring out a way that resistant birds can be bred is not in the interest of those selling vaccines and extermination services.
I could not figure out what killing all of these birds would possibly do to stop the spread of disease, if there are many other birds out in the wild still spreading the disease.
Swine flu, bird flu, bat flu, fly flu zzzzzzz
Rinse and on and on since 1918………..
I should have figured it all out with the “H1N1-flu A” in 2009, but I’m so careless it took the slap of convid to wake me up once and for all from the Bigpharma dream. The only good part of this embarassing story is that I won’t fall for pandemic scams again, or any other (I hope). A propaganda não passará!
rinse and on etc = rinse and repeat.
(sorri inglish not ferst langage)
I am on an email distribution list from Steve Kopits. He reports that the EIA’s estimates of shale oil production have been dramatically reduced for recent periods. He says, “with this revision, US shale production is largely flat over the last four months.
He writes:
“The most plausible interpretation is that US crude and condensate production will stagnate for the balance of the year. As I wrote in The Oil Supply Outlook (Feb. 2), the plateau has been expected since at least 2017 (see Fig. 6), so it should come as no surprise. I think the surprise, however, will be in production trends going forward. The EIA sees a long platuea in US shale oil production. I think it more likely that we’ll see the beginnings of an erosion in supply from 2024.
In light of this, President Biden’s approval of drilling in Alaska is not hard to understand, but don’t expect it to have a material impact on supply anytime soon.”
All of this may be related to the announcements from the recent CERA conference.
Oil exploration began in the deserts of the Middle East and ended in the arctic? It is tempting to see a metaphor there.
That might mean more war.
I think it was the play by play estimates that were especially high. They previously suggested that production was rising, when it really wasn’t.
It is nothing but a guess, Koch’s refinery near the cities has more tankers on the siding than ever before. No idea what, but volumes of something are high.
Friend told me at full throttle, the refinery clears $1M/day. Keeps a fellow in tires for the jet.
Dennis L.
That means another year of time. Good!
Meanwhile … conventional plays continue to deplete…
According to Rystad, the current resource replacement ratio for conventional resources is only 16 percent. Only 1 barrel out of every 6 consumed is being replaced with new resources
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Biggest-Oil-Gas-Discoveries-Of-2019.html
I think according to Steve StAngelo the current wells in production are now depleting faster than can be compensated for by the current rate of drilling of new wells. The Permian is the last holdout. Marcellus, Bakken, etc are winding down.
IOW, an increasing number of new wells are required to have any chance of maintaining production. However, the rate of new wells being drilled has remained stagnant. Not profitable. No surprise that therefore the rate of shale oil is about to decline. By 2025, the trend will be unmistakable.
Somewhere on this post there is note of minerals running out in about 4 years. I did not read it, but Zn is known to be in short supply very soon.
A guess, most of this has been known of a while, have a report on non renewables somewhere, couldn’t do anything about it so not filed.
Dennis L.
as i keep banging on
its not oil supply thats the problem, its the means by which it is used
(AZ)
”US aircraft shouldn’t be flying near Russian border , imagine Washington’s reaction if foreign military aircraft appeared near New York or San Francisco – Russian Ambassador to US Antonov on American drone that crashed in Black Sea.”
https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/status/1635963864268275712
The Russian should have had nothing to do with the Black Sea to begin with
All of these so the Poles and Czechs could have their countries, whose contribution to civilization, I have to say, is nil.
The Russian Black Sea Fleet have a large garrison on Crimea since the 17th century. The Black Sea is the only connection of Russia to world markets, look at the map! Eventually read Mackinder.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_History
Crimea was given as a gift to Ukraine by Khrushchev in 1954.
People living there are Russians.
https://sites.utu.fi/bre/why-did-khrushchev-transfer-crimea-to-ukraine/
Even if one would not consider Crimea land, it is full of Russian territories in the Black Sea, like Novorossijsk just to name one
https://goo.gl/maps/MwupXvs1oX2wWfKN6
And I’m also convinced that even with a crazy Canada’s authorization, if a Russian plane with a potential capacity of 1.400 kg. of explosives would arrive close to Novia Scotia, US jets would attack it without hesitations.
In that point the Russian Ambassador is probably correct.
https://goo.gl/maps/MBzKaQjPw4woVRDR8
Marie Curie comes to mind, Polish don’t you know.
They currently make very nice machine tools.
Dennis L.
Yes, she was Polish, but Poland was Russian back then.
Kulm is asking what has an independent Poland ever done for the world.
And I would reply, “They make very good pickled dill cucumbers.”
Andrzej Wajda, Polanski and Kieslowski made some good films, and Rizsard Kapuscinsky achieved something very rare: writing reports that can be read with great pleasure and benefit 50 years after the events. Kundera is a decent writer. Conrad was a Polish sailor who decided to write in English; if he had done it in polish how many people outside Poland would have heard of him?” Etc.
Then there’s this, what did Kulm do for western civilization? From the way he talks, you’d think he at least invented the comb or the pitted olive. No, the reflected glory of an English or American passport is not enough as a credential, and neither being an OFW reader, I.m affraid. Kulm, would you mind justifying why you’re more essential to civilization than an Indian farmer?
Copernicus, the Prague of Brahe and Kepler, Chopin, Milosz, Zbigniew Herbert, Wislawa Zsymborska, Tadeuz Rozewicz, Lewandowski… you don’t know of what you’re talking about.
The Web tells me that both the nationality and ethnicity of Copernicus are disputed. His father has been described by some as a Pole and by others as a German, and his mother was most likely of German origin.
Sabine Shafaer says: “He was born as Niklas Koppernigk. His parents were Niklas Koppernigk and Barbara Watzenrode, they were German speaking citizens of the city of Thorn. He will have considered himself Prussian/German.”
Johannes Kepler was German.
Tycho Brahe was Danish.
Prague was Bohemian, in more ways than one.
Frédéric François Chopin was the son of a French emigre in Poland (then part of Russia) and by the age of 20 he had emigrated to Paris. He was about as Polish as Rudyard Kipling was Indian.
Zbigniew Herbert… Seems to be a genuine 100% Pole and a talented poet, anti-communist, anti-fascist and humanitarian. Although online sources tell me he claimed to be a distant relative of the 17th-century Anglo-Welsh poet George Herbert.
Maria Wisława Anna Szymborska…. Another 100% Polish poet, and a Nobel Laureate as well. A slight blot on her paperwork was that she signed an infamous 1953 political petition condemning Polish priests accused of treason in a show trial. So no cigar there.
Tadeusz Różewicz … yet another 100% Polish poet.
But the point Kulm would probably make is that these last three made no significant contribution to world literature or anything else of global import. And he would demonstrate that by asking “How many people outside Poland have ever heard of any of them?”
I didn’t say that Brahe and Kepler were Czechs, or Bohemians, I was just alluding to the fact that they met and worked in Prague, at the invitation of Emperor Rudolf.
I don’t think an author’s worth and importance is necessarily measured by his/her fame or the global impact. Mediocre authors like Robert Browning or Thomas Hardy had and continue to have many more readers than others much better than them, but who had the misfortune of writing in more peripheral languages like Spanish, Italian or Portuguese. But nobody is to blame for that, c’est la vie. Besides, entral countries such as the UK or the USA have also benefited, as you know, from attracting talent from all corners of the world. Many British Nobel laureates, and especially Americans, were not born speaking English.
So i find Kulm’s obsession with the specific weight of each country for culture and civilization a bit absurd and ignorant.
I find Kulm’s stance irritating and amusing in equal measure. But he is very knowledgable, perhaps the most knowledgable commentator on this site. I must confess that I don’t always understand where he’s coming from, because usually he doesn’t provide much background. The comments appear like fireworks in a dark sky, brightening up our world for a moment but offering know permanent enlightenment.
The only thing Kulm “knows”, or at least the only thing he repeats here everyday as a scratched record, is that if the West had not included (as if it could have avoided it!) Eastern Europe and Asia in industrial civilization, by now Major Kulm could already be in the Entrerprise alongside Captain Kirk, on his way to the stars.
The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) is located in Switzerland. The Basel III rules forced the banks to hold a large share of government bonds on their balance sheets…the safest and most liquid paper in the world.
Incidentally Mr Pool warned about the Basel III rules…with the medieval painting “Death from Basel”.
Basel rules raise expenses for banks and keep profits lower. They reduce downward year to year variability, but the overall system still tends to fail. In fact, it probably fails faster because of higher expenses and lower profits.
Yosh, you asked yesterday
How would a bank run on the Fed look like?
a good question for thought.
With the magic CtrlP keyboard the Fed (or BoJ) can meet any demand in Federal Reserve Note Dollar liabilities (or JPY).
This run has now gained significant momentum from … well, we’ve all seen the curve of it since we were born, even Norm
Bricks added to the accelerator by Bernake, Kuroda, Draghi, and here we are with no reason whatsoever to stop, good heavens.
hhmmm
How would it be measured? Record demand for FRNs (tick) to fuel the economy
ratio of production output to FRNs falls = PPP drop = inflation. The IMF induces it all the time.
In the Fed’s case, if at some point inflation does not return to 2% a political decision will have to be made.
Change the mandate or fire the Fed Boards. Trump threatened, didn’t he, about tightening late 2018, and Powell did a policy backflip on rates.
The single element of the FRN structure beyond the nation’s political power is the exchange rate, critically significant with balance of payment deficit countries.
The dollar falls, with all of the extra debt.
I thought that this explanation of what is happening after the SVB collapse is right, as far as it goes.
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/aftershock-life-after-silicon-valley-bank
Aftershock Life After Silicon Valley Bank
Gail’s comment – I think QT was part of the reason for the loss of deposits, perhaps as much as the interest rate difference and customers moving balances out.
The article then shows what is essentially an M2 chart, showing that deposits had started going down recently.
The article points out that when the bank’s liabilities go down (its M2 deposits), its assets need to go down by a corresponding amount.
The bank’s assets are loans outstanding. Some of these are in the form of loans to the US government in the from of Treasury securities held. Changes made this week incentivize keeping these loans. Banks will instead cut back on their other types of loans made. They do this by increasing underwriting standards. They also start charging more for loans to businesses considered risky. This is a standard reaction at the beginning of a recession.
https://sp-ao.shortpixel.ai/client/to_auto,q_lossless,ret_img,w_468/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/corporate-zombies.png
Gail: I would point out that while the Fed’s plan to shore up SVB is inflationary, if it is applied to all banks, (and the one-year cap and the $50 billion cap are removed) at this point it doesn’t yet have this effect. Instead, we are headed into the period in which student loans will perhaps need to be repaid. This means that many young people, with these loans will cut back on their discretionary spending to try to repay these loans. This will push the economy into recession as well.
So in the immediate term, my conclusion is that the result is a lot of debt defaults, fewer goods and services available, and falling asset prices. The result will look like a serious recession. The price of crude oil will tend to fall.
Whether or not the world economy can hold together through this is a question. I am sure bailouts for everyone will be a plan, but perhaps it doesn’t come into play just yet.
The banks had gotten used to paying next-to-nothing on deposit accounts for many, many years. Most banks were still only paying a small fraction of a percent on traditional Savings and “Money Market” accounts, despite the fact that short-term US Treasuries were paying nearly 5%. I think there has been quite a lot of disintermediation going on for some time now (customers removing funds from bank accounts into brokerage Money Markets & US Treasuries) and it has recently reached critical mass in the form of a kind of run on the banks.
The recent sharp decline in M2 money supply would tend to support this view.
I notice that the US stock market is especially down for small company stocks today. According to the WSJ chart,
Russel 2000 = -3.12% (small company stocks)
Dow = -2.15%
NASDAQ = -1.37%
S&P 500 = -1.95%
WTI = 66.11 = -7.29%
Office pool on how lo WTI will go in 2023? Has to be a proper low not including the the flash crashes below zero.
I’ll go with 11.66. Why not. I’m worried I’m too high.
Thanks Gail I read that article at ZH this morning, it’s very good. I had forgotten about the old Silent Run.
Squeezing out consumer debt by increasing nationalist collateral requirements (government bonds) is a huge step in this global, inverted perestroika. From international consumer capitalism towards economic nationalism, with socialist bailouts for the (rich lol) depositors above the FDIC insurance. Which suggests to me that bail-ins ate now seen as culturally anachronistic, às if the Cypriot trial-run for bail-ins and subsequent Bank of England(?) paper were contingency plans for if they couldn’t hold the financial system together until peak total liquids.
I am not sure what most banks do now. WF locally has almost no people in the branch other than drive up tellers, service in the bank is nonexistent.
CC seem to handle most small loans, dealerships do most car loans from what I see, Rocket Mortgage is very good, not a brick and mortar.
Dennis L.
I would hesitate to refer to any of those companies as mom and pop operations….
QE and NIRP pushed $18T of bonds into negative yield territory. With rising rates and yields those bonds are now toxic waste that no one wants. I suspect that European banks are holding most of that junk.
Credit Suisse is also experiencing a bank run. They have at least lost $50B in deposits. The bank is more or less illiquid. Saudi Arabia’s wealth fund bank just said that they can no longer help the bank.
Saudi Arabia’s wealth fund holds 9.9% of the shares of stock, according to an article I read. If it tries to sell those shares, the price would drop further.
Europe and Japan are the primary home to the negative yield bonds that no-one wants, now that rates are much higher. I can’t imagine that Credit Suisse is the only bank in Europe with problems.
Too much sand in the cement of the financial system’s foundations. The building is starting to tilt.
I thought the dodgiest bank in Europe was Deutsche Bank, also the biggest, or used to be. Can’t imagine TPTB letting any big bank go under. The EU will bail them out, ‘whatever it takes’, surely, or indeed the Fed. OTOH I seem to remember an article 2-3 years ago stating that perhaps Deutsche Bank could not be bailed out because its liabilities, especially in the derivatives markets, was about 5 times the GDP of Germany.
Its as well to bear in mind, that the entire ”stockholding” of the Saudis is entirely dependent on free flow and surplus availability of oil.
remove that, and the currency of the Saudis is camels and goats
Just like it always was.
This one is for you know….
The AV Club
Tilda Swinton, who had COVID multiple times, bravely declares that she’s not wearing a mask anymore
This week, Tilda Swinton appeared at South By Southwest to promote her new film Problemista, which she stars in alongside writer/director Julio Torres, and she noted that she’s glad that we’re at a point in the COVID-19 pandemic that the audience members for her keynote speech are comfortable no longer wearing masks. That comes from Variety, which adds that she also proudly declared that she’s refusing to wear a mask herself during an upcoming movie job: “I’m about to shoot a picture in Ireland, and I was told to wear a mask at all times, and I’m not.” Swinton also commented that she was sure her speech was being recorded and insisted that she’s “very healthy” despite going through “multiple” COVID-19 infections.
That means Swinton has now joined a list of heroic celebrities (including Woody Harrelson recently) who have bravely declared that we should all just decide that the pandemic is over because we’re tired of it, which is basically the same strategy that the previous presidential administration tried in 2020—and it didn’t work out too well that time around. But what makes this example of a famous person exercising their stupid level of privilege is that it flies in the face of some previous comments we’ve heard about people who have gone through COVID multiple times.
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/tilda-swinton-had-covid-multiple-201300471.html
Heroic!? Celebrities
From my personal experience with friends, colleagues, relatives, those who had Covid many times, were all vaccinated against Covid with mRNA.
That is my experience as well.
What’s the grand plan then, mask up in perpetuity?
At that point, you might as well brand yourself, because you’ve lost all agency and all sense…
Such people should be encouraged to take Super Fent
The big item in the news this morning is the problems at Credit Suisse. This is WSJ’s view of the story:
Credit Suisse Shares Plunge as Bank Storm Spreads to Europe
Intensification of Swiss lender’s difficulties comes days after two major bank failures in the U.S.
I am sure that a big part of the problem is how large Credit Suisse is and how large the banking industry is in Switzerland. According to this article:
There is no way that Switzerland can bail out the whole banking industry there, I expect.
I also note that WTI is down to $68.23. It looks like most everyone is starting to think recession is around the corner.
It’s starting to look a lot like 2008 all over again. Wasn’t Credit Suisse in the news prior to SVB going bankrupt? I recall reading they were another troubled bank along with Deutsche Bank.
Right!
The problem is, they have NO bullets left in the chamber. They used up all their tricks to keep the system from collapsing in 2008.
This time they may have no choice but to run away from the falling buildings that are about to crush them.
(RSI.ch)
Directly from official Swiss news.
”Robert Kiyosaki, an investor who predicted the collapse of Lehman Brothers, identifies Credit Suisse as the next bank to fall.”
https://www.rsi.ch/news/svizzera/Credit-Suisse-a-meno-di-2-franchi-per-azione-16095013.html
I predict there will be other banks in Europe in not too long.
Bail out?
Swiss regulators rush to assuage fears over Credit Suisse
Reuters on MSN.com|25 minutes ago
Swiss regulators said Credit Suisse can access liquidity from the central bank if needed, racing to assuage fears around the lender after it led a rout in European bank shares on Wednesday.
The Elders have this under control… they are pulling the strings of the orchestra…
Otherwise this would not be on CNNBBC
Currently the Dow is minus 600 pts. Where’s Marco from Italy? He’s always asking, “when collapse”?
Not being a wise guy, but
deflation?
In my area corn now costs $1.1K/acre to plant, including rent.
My neighbor’s family has been in farming > 100 years, middle generation lives in converted milkhouse, his son, daughter and grandchildren live in what was his home.
Having a home is not easy, but some do it, always a group or a family helps. Modern societal ideas don’t seem to work to me, everyone is an individual.
Dennis L.
This is a little bit.. exciting.
Every time this happens — something terrible follows…
Just posted on YouTube..
Simon Michaux on Mineral Shortages
238 views · 16 hours ago#thegreatsimplification #natehagens #simonmichaux
…more
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=e69QUqPBXMY
Excerpted from The Great Simplification Episode #19 aired March 29th, 2022
Full Episode:
• Dr. Simon Michaux…
2 minute clip from Nate Hagens interview and he determines we are just 4-5years away from a metals constraint and perhaps a decade away from an industrial agricultural breakdown.
Works for me and perfect timing….I’ll be over 70 then and care not..so there.
Like Gail has repeated here…it’s not like we weren’t warned repeatedly….thank you Gail and others that did so….
Of course, we have many simultaneous crises. We have a diesel crisis, already. We are quickly reaching a financial crisis. I expect we will soon be hitting an international war crisis, as well. These have not been factored into the time estimates given. The timing could differ for different parts of the world.
Bill Gates talks about population reduction to 1 bio, I think pre-fossile world population was more 250 mio. And they had structures, that we deny to build up! So we already have a ratio, 1:8 or 1:32. We can already start to count off!
Yes 250 million is much better than 1000 million. But when will it start?
Thank you, Gail, for pointing out the obvious….translation the end can happen at any moment from multiple reasons and strike at any place of time…From a Zen saying..sort of
It is becoming very challenging to make good decisions on the next year let alone a decade hence.
Dennis L.
No sarcasm, genuine hope; Starship actually launches. It is a very long shot, but there don’t seem to be any others. We need real stuff, it is out there.
If Musk settles Mars, who owns t?
Dennis L.
Do you think he will go there when he can’t find girlfriends in that planet?
Unless he is into Martians, something he has not shown any sign of , he won’t settle there.
This is a type of mental illness that increases the closer we get to doomsday.
you must be closer than most eddy
I could see the timing being different… it might hit a few places … but not everywhere at exactly the same time…
It might take a few hours or even days to spread to other places…
Best if CNNBBC do not report on the collapse of the periphery.. if they do that then the MOREONS will panic and accelerate the collapse where they are
Cold rainy March day. I could do without winter… how about Apocalypse Now!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrP34HkXwAATGiC?format=png&name=large
The S&P 500 broke down through two support lines and the 200MA last week
The S&P 500 seems to have a problem to hold the 200MA…just like in 2008
Very interesting!
Another period somewhat like 2008.
Y,
Speculation: if the dollar falls faster than the S&P, S&P should be worth more.
Dollar seems mostly for liquidity now, doubt if there is much underlying value, it is getting interesting and frightening.
Dennis L.
Excellent! I like this type of story
Meanwhile to undo a big lie you need to repeat the anti lie
https://archive.org/download/AS11-40-5922/AS11-40-5922.jpg
Withnail, you wrote the following:
Gravity
Only moreons think that.
Gravity exists and there is a lot less of it on the moon. Hopefully that’s not open to dispute.
Only immbeciles* (lower on the IQ scale than moreons*) think that.
*Alternative spellinz uzed to confuze the AI cenzers.
So, let’s dispute it. Gravity only exists “in your head.”
Niels Jakob Søe Loft writes:
Does gravity exist? If I ask anyone that question they would look at me curiously and reply: “Of course gravity exists!”
We cannot see it with the naked eye, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. After all, we see the effects of gravity.
It is the reason why things on Earth fall down while objects in space float around. So how can I postulate that gravity doesn’t exist?
Let’s go back in time, to when gravity was first discovered. It’s 1666 and Isaac Newton is sitting under an apple tree in Lincolnshire, England, his childhood home.
According to legend, he sees an apple fall from the tree and this gets him thinking. He asks himself, why does the apple fall down to Earth?
The Earth must attract the apple, he thinks. And that is why it falls down. He called this attraction, gravity.
All massive objects attracts each other by gravity, and this also allows Newton to explain the movement of the celestial bodies.
Newton’s theory on gravity works extraordinarily well, so you may well think that, yes, gravity must exist.
But instead of saying that Newton “discovered” gravity, we should instead say that he “invented” it.
Imagine Newton sitting in the orchard with a friend (rumour has it that he didn’t have many). Let’s call him Joseph-Louis Lagrange. Lagrange actually lived 100 years after Newton, but that doesn’t matter for the purposes of our thought experiment. The important thing is that Lagrange takes a completely different approach to mechanics than Newton.
Both of them watch the apple fall. And Newton, who has just discovered gravity, decides to challenge his friend. With a sly smile he asks Lagrange to explain why the apple fell to the ground.
Newton waits in suspense to see whether Lagrange is clever enough to figure it out. After some time, Lagrange exclaims, “aha!” “The apple falls because from an energy perspective, it follows a stable path,” says Lagrange with confidence. “In the time it takes the apple to fall, it follows a direct path towards the Earth,” notes Lagrange. “But why does it follow a straight line? In the same period of time it could have followed any other imaginable path.”
Lagrange ascribes each possible path a quantity, which he calls “the action.” For any given path, one can compute its action by looking at the apple’s velocity and energy along that specific path. Mathematically, the action is the kinetic energy (energy associated with movement) minus the potential energy (energy associated with position) integrated over the time it takes to complete the motion along the path.
Lagrange postulates that among the many possible routes, the apple follows the path of least action. It’s is known as the principle of least action in physics. In the case of an apple falling to the ground, the straight line path that we observe is the one of least action.
This leaves Newton utterly confused as Lagrange talks about the apple’s energy, but does not name any type of attraction between the apple and the Earth.
But Lagrange does not need a force of attraction to describe the apple’s fall. As he sees it, gravity only exists in Newton’s head.
Newton cannot see anything wrong with Lagrange’s analysis but he is confident in his own abilities and convinced that gravity is the correct explanation. Lagrange must be wrong and his ideas on energy are surely pure fantasy.
Before Newton and Lagrange come to blows, another friend appears. He suggests a simple experiment to resolve the conflict. He will collect the apple and let it fall again. He asks both of them to predict the time it takes to fall using their preferred method.
“Thus,” he says, “we can reveal which of you gentlemen is correct.”
Both Newton and Lagrange grab a piece of paper and get to work. Their mutual friend asks them to show their predictions, and to their astonishment they both proclaim at the same time: “Half a second!”
The two methods give the same answer and the experiment doesn’t clear the matter up.
For the rest of the day, the three friends try to design an experiment that will reveal whether Newton’s gravity or Lagrange’s energy is the true explanation. But time and time again, both methods give the same answer. By the evening they give up—a sensible choice as there is no experiment that can tell the difference between the two methods. They are completely equivalent.
They conclude that both methods are both right and wrong. If Newton prefers to think about the apple’s fall as a consequence of gravity, then that is a valid model.
As Lagrange suggests, it is nothing more than a model, a “computational trick” if you will, just like his own method. They both agree on all of the physical parameters measured, such as time of fall, speed, and so on. Where they differ is the model used to explain it—the mathematical apparatus they use to reach their identical predictions.
There are numerous mathematical formalisms that describe the same physics. The packaging is different but they are equal as physical theories. They always give the same measurable results.
The physicist Richard Feynman thought that every theoretical physicist should familiarise themselves with six or seven formalisms for the same physical phenomenon. The smart physicist chooses the one that is easiest to work with or that gives the most insight into the problem.
https://sciencenordic.com/denmark-forskerzonen-physics/gravity-it-is-all-in-your-head/1453728
Too long, didn’t read.
That often happens with immbeciles.
But they love watching videos!
Come on Tim – that’s what Twitter was invented for…. back in the day it was Readers Digest… we are devolving generation by generation
Good thing we are going extinct cuz the next stage after Idiocracy is a worm-like organism that plays volley ball.
It’s ok to say ‘too long didn’t read’ if it’s posted by a non core member e.g. norm…
But to put up that placard in response to the core is like walking around OFW with a dunce cap on. And being proud of it
How strange, Withnail: I often think, regarding your posts ‘Too short: not worth reading’.
It was, in fact, very well worth reading. Try it.
Do you prefer photos?
https://images.fineartamerica.com/images-medium-large/1-lunar-module-antares-apollo-14-nasa.jpg
https://images.fineartamerica.com/images-medium-large-5/apollo-11-space-suit-jason-abando.jpg
A model is nothing than a walking stick, that helps us to make forecasts. Apart from beauty, it has no value on its own.
The energy model lacks explanation, why the accelleration started, into which direction and where the energy comes from. I am not really sure if it opens up a new paradigm and is not just a submodel of gravity. That gravity creates energy is already included in the model, Newton called it force. A technical use, for example, are clock weighs.
The gravity model allows forcasts in Astronomy and Chemistry and explains attraction related to mass.
Gravity and magnesism are crooked sticks, because they dont explain, why the energy they cause apparently don’t dissipate. It is against a lot of other paradigms, we take for granted. But that’s a question of model beauty. For forecasts it is enough to assume they exist.
Unfortunately, Feynman does not explain much. So it looks more like a nice story, where someone dares to oppose a legendary authority. That’s okay, but of no further use.
In fact gravity does not create energy, as you have to lift up the clock weighs again. That’s why it cannot dissipate.
A model, as I understood it from practical examples, can be thought of empirical experience molded into mathematical form.
The relevant examples I read about when doing a master thesis was:
– there is a factory with assembly lines and machines in between
– a model of the factory production is created by sitting the employees together with mathematicians
– the mathematical properties of the model are based on the experiences of the employees with the process
– in several runs, a model is created, tested on the real situation, then refined again
– the modelling work is finished when employees (holders of experience) and mathematicians agree that the model is now fit to describe the situation
Yes it may be a limited understanding of what is a model, but I think a good example. My description is of course a bit of a stub.
Of course there are models that are not mathematically exact, agent based modelling. It has its own place of course, simulating people running for the fire exits, energy markets…it does not give exact formulas, rather it creates scenarios based on the premises of the model. Many runs are necessary to give a comprehensive picture of the variety of scenarios possible.
cell automation simulation is another good example that simulated evolution – starting from actually very simple basic premises, it creates a surprising variety of outcomes.
This, John Michael Greer argues, is a good way of imagining the workings of evolution: from a starting point, evolution fills up all the possible spaces available. But in what order exactly does it do so? Cell automata are a good metaphor of how very simple basic processes multiplied lead to unpredictable outcomes.
What underlies the Limits To Growth model? Due to constraints in time, energy and competence, I was not able to find out exactly what data the scenarios are based on.
A common misunderstanding is that LTG is a singular model – it isn’t – it’s a bundle of scenarios, each with differing parameters, including a scenario with unlimited resources. Which by the way also leads to collapse due to the parameter of “pollution”.
There was a law mentioned in my university courses which says that the more detailed a model tries to emulate real world circumstances, the less applicable it is to a real world situation.
Unfortunately I forgot what the name of that law was.
This makes sense to me on a level I cannot quite verbalize.
The basic data of LTG is, as reported, very general data of world industry and production. Industrial production for example is measured in weight units.
Again this does not allow assumptions about the detailed properties of the products produced, but the correlation of more energy/resource use – more material output – definitely holds.
The model parameter “pollution” is also very general, but we can argue that environmental destruction makes production impossible at some point.
One big issue that takes the model down is needing to use too much of one year’s output as “investment” for future years’ production. With diminishing returns, this gets higher and higher. The model fails when this “investment” percentage exceeds 5%. This is not an energy only item. It would include all kinds of minerals.
How do you come to 5%? That would interest me!
I once came across a discussion within econometrics about the energy part of products. If I remember right, it was assumed to be 5%.
I think, it was something close to ASPO Germany, Jörn Schwartz, but I don’t remember the authors. They suggested it should be much higher. They managed to interview one of the Godfathers of econometrics, and he said, perhaps he has made a mistake.
Apparently, in econometrics they estimate the energy percentage, calculating the direct energy costs of the product.
I am afraid, we might not have the right models to measure our predicament. For example, if the oil industrie employs more people, GDP stays even. If more energy must be invested into oil production or transport, the usual production charts won’t show that.
Remember once the THEORY of Gravity can be shown very simply by jumping off a building.
A scientific theory is an explanation of an aspect of the natural world and universe that has been repeatedly tested and corroborated in accordance with the scientific method, using accepted protocols of observation, measurement, and evaluation of results
I wish it were so! It is okay, to put everything into question, but Newton is a hard nut.
There are some minds not from this world, and I always wonder, what parents do, when they realize, that this wonder was entrusted to them?
There is an excellent book called “Coming of Age in the Milky Way Galaxy” by Timothy Ferris. He goes into wonderful and fascinating detail about the lives of the people who made great discoveries about who we are, and what the universe is to us. It’s more about the people and their experiences which lead them to learn the things they did. The odd interesting death experience somehow makes it even better..
Newton was certainly an odd duck, who was also very entertaining to his friends, mostly because of his view of the world. He had no appreciation for art, and felt that sex was a hindrance to a beneficial life. Nothing ironic there.
I can’t recommend this book enough if you are interested in who Newton was, as well as many others.
Circus Animals
ten—and counting—in 18 minutes
Norman, pour yourself a nice glass of port and chuckle.
Very nice, thank you!
The predictions of newtonian mechanics can be shown by jumping of a building. Gravity as a metaphysical entity less so. There are alternative formulations of mechanics like Tim gave example of above. Standard examples beside Lagrangian mechanics is Hamiltonian mechanics and Hamilton-Jacoby equations.
“But Lagrange does not need a force of attraction to describe the apple’s fall. As he sees it, gravity only exists in Newton’s head.”
This is incorrect. The “action”, now normally called the Lagrangian, contains the gravitational potential (as the comment states, it is T-V). so gravity is in there.
It is just the bending of space/time there is no force just a field. 😉
And thats why Newton invented Calculus.
I agree with Jan and drb.
This is just contemporary cultural relativism/polarization/infantilism bleeding into physics. What else is new? Newton is Big Picturing it and Lagrange is Navelgazing it. And the author needs to clean up his thinking; here’s but one example:
“Newton cannot see anything wrong with Lagrange’s analysis but he is confident in his own abilities and convinced that gravity is the correct explanation. Lagrange must be wrong and his ideas on energy are surely pure fantasy.”
These two sentences are completely contradictory. It’s the children’s hour Ted talk kind of stuff that makes the world go round… the toilet bowl. As if Newton wouldn’t immediately know how to integrate the physics of Navelgazing.
Tim
I always thought you held the copyright on ‘aha’
As to ‘inventing gravity—discovering gravity—the ‘aha’ moment (if you will excuse me plagiarising of your expression) neither is correct.
The precise definition I think would be the awareness that gravity exists.
I trust you recognise the subtle shade of meaning?
Oxygen has been around for billions of years–no one ‘invented’ it, or discovered it.
Priestley found that it existed. After that, despite protests to the contrary, it could not be un-existed.
Same applies to the entire periodic table–elements ‘exist’ before we isolated them—they didnt ‘come into existence’ after we became intelligent enough to do that.
Similarly, once an event has occurred, we cannot bring forward a ‘superior intellect’ which proves that event did not occur.
Thanks Norman. It’s very commonsensical what you are saying, and there is a place for commonsense, no doubt about it. I only wish it was more common.
BUT…..
You knew that was coming, didn’t you?
There are other ways of seeing, viewing, perceiving, conceptualizing the physical world.
Saying “it exists” and calling it “gravity” is part of the conceptualization. We observe things such as apples that become detached from trees and people who are defenestratrated falling to earth and accelerating at a rate of 9.8 m/s2 as they fall until they reach a speed at which air resistance prevents them from falling any faster. That much can be validated by observation and measurement.
Calling it gravity, from the Latin gravis (heavy) is merely giving it a name, and a rose by any other name would smell as sweet. But it doesn’t explain what the phenomenon is. Newton called it a force, which has led generations of physicists to speculate and investigate what kind of force it is and whether it is mediated by particles, the supposed gravitons, and whether it can be shielded against like electromagnetic forces and radiation can.
Gravity may not be a force at all. It may, as one hypothesis has it, be a visible effect of the bending or warping of space by the presence of matter. There may be no pulling or attraction between masses involved.
Or we may need a totally radically new concept to do justice to the phenomenon.
This, I submit, is a matter of the utmost gravity as well as of the upmost levity.
“The awareness that gravity exists” is partly the result of being educated to view gravity as existing. Presumably, thousands of generations of humans were able to go about their lives without the foggiest notion of the existence of gravity.
And you’ve got to be careful with using awareness as a yardstick for measuring existence.
Many people have the awareness that all kinds of things exist including ghosts, deities, angels, devils, invisible weightless dragons, viruses, vaccines, alien women with green skin and six breasts, King Arthur, orbiting satellites, manned space travel, the lost continent of Atlantis, Kulm’s ancestral lands complete with castle, retainers and peasants in tow….. The list goes on.
So we can’t blindly trust awareness any more than we can trust common sense.
I prefer the idea that people on the earth’s surface are attempting to following the path of least effort (or least resistance) through the spacetime continuum under conditions of uniform motion just like all well-behaved masses, but our trajectory follows a curve because of the presence of the mass of the earth, which curves spacetime in its vicinity, while at the same time we are prevented from following this curved path by the ground or the solid floor beneath our feet (which is also following its own path of least effort) getting in our way.
/////defenestratrated/////—i thought it was only me who did that ‘word duplication’ Tim–thanks —big relief there mate—honestly. i do it all the time, i thought it was a sympton of old gittery
that said, we must trust physical awareness, because that is all we have
not to would be like failing to believe in the ‘fact’ that there will be enough air available to draw my next breath. Some things we have no choice but to take for granted.
There are certain self confessed geniuses who roam the corridors of OFW, who might stop and ask me::: Can you prove gravity exists?” or some other fatuous question
To which my answer would be “no”
To which the nutter–would triumphantly proclaim:—”so gravity does not exist then.”
You can apply that thread of philosphy to any question on OFW—which is why i find it so amusing, and eye rolling.
Youve seen it yourself, many many times. on numerous subjects.
Which is why i prefer to engage with independent thinkers.—not copy and paste philosophers.
You can’t accuse me of copying and pasting my last comment above, Norman.
Had I done so, I would have spelt “defenestrated” without stuttering.
That aside, I regret that nothing in my explanation was of any help to you in clarifying why gravity may not be an attractive force after all.
Forgive me if I give it one more try from a different angle. Even Lot made several attempts before giving up on the people of Gomorrah, saying “Sod’em!”
I’ve said this before, but you may have forgotten it. When we talk about the sun or moon coming up and going down, we “know” that what is actually happening is that the earth is rotating on its axis and the rising and setting of the sun or moon is not a real phenomenon but an illusion caused by this rotation.
Sunrise, noon, sunset, etc., are entirely dependent on the observer’s location. The sun isn’t making any special effort to rise and set. It just looks that way to us in our position the earth’s surface.
Similarly, we know that the so-called fixed stars and planets do not rotate around the earth. It merely seems that they do because the earth rotates. We know this, but it is convenient for us to allude to their rising and setting in ordinary conversation.
Similarly, it is convenient to allude to gravity being an attractive force in ordinary conversation, regardless of whether such a force is real or illusory.
If you can’t grasp this distinction, it may be because my ability to explain it to you is lacking in some way. Or then again, you may be incapable of of grasping it due to your own intellectual limitations. We all have intellectual limitations and some of us are so limited that we don’t don’t even realize where those limitations lie.
if an object is separated from a fixed situation—ie me jumping off a cliff edge,
the object travels down, until it meets an opposing object—ie the ground
If the falling speed is fast enough, the soft parts of my body are pulverised (the strawberry jam effect) because the opposing force that prevents further progress—ie the ground is stronger than my body parts
Not being superman, I do not go sideways or upwards. Down is the only option
If on the other hand I repeat the action beyond a certain distance from earth, I do not fall downwards. (Putting all ”fakes” aside for the moment)
This would seem to suggest that there is an attractive force between me and the ground.
The name of that force is irrelevant.
It will still kill me even if I call it something else. Or deny its existence.
Your comment was a long diatribe on things of common knowledge.. It offered nothing, (not that I expected anything), on things we (purportedly) do not know
Interesting analogies. Irrelevant yes but I wonder what would happen to a particular “strange attraction” if we replace the words “ground” and “Earth” with Fast Eddy?
if falling bodies could be guaranteed to land on eddy, the parachute makers would go out of business
Norman, most people have a hard time wrapping their head around Einsteinian physics.
While you may consider yourself to be falling, you are really undergoing uniform motion while following a trajectory through spacetime that has been curved by the presence of a significant amount of matter in the vicinity.
When you are accelerating in a car or an elevator, you physically feel the acceleration, which has to overcome your inertia. But when you are accelerating while falling after somebody has thrown you out of a window or you jump off a diving board, you don’t physically feel the acceleration. Why not?
According to Miika Liukka:
In short: the fact that you don’t feel acceleration means you are not accelerating. Seems counterintuitive? Let me explain.
When you sit in an accelerating car, you feel yourself being pressed back against the seat. When you bungee jump, you feel the deceleration in your guts when the cord pulls you back.
But why can’t you feel acceleration in the same way when you’re falling due to the Earth’s gravity, and thus accelerating towards the ground at 9,81 m/s²? You feel weightless, but you don’t feel “pressed back” upwards. This lack of G-force when falling seems to violate Newton’s first and second laws! So what’s going on?
This is actually a very good question that can provide insight to the nature of space time. We feel no acceleration when falling, and that means there is no force acting on our body. Otherwise we would feel inertia, or resistance against this acceleration, similar to being pushed back against the car seat.
This observation has some major implications, which Einstein noticed in his theory of relativity. From the perspective of space-time, an object in free fall is stationary. The acceleration we observe due to gravity happens relative to Earth, but from the point of view of space-time, there is no acceleration. It is space-time itself that is warping, or flowing, due to Earth’s gravity – and free-falling objects are caught in this “stream” of space-time which moves them towards the source of the gravity.
tim
by the time i’d figured all that out
i would hit the ground
Tim, there is clearly something flawed with “rubber sheet” interpretation of gravity.
At the center of the earth, stuff is as much in free fall as the satellites in orbit. All stuff in the core is equally pulled in all directions.
Thus, there is no apparent gravity and the pressure is equally zero “down there”.
Assuming the core is molten iron at some 6000C, however, let us remind ourselves that the boiling point of iron is at 2861C at atmospheric pressure.
Now, since the pressure is 0 PSI, the core obviously must be made out of iron plasma at that temperatures and pressure.
Let’s furthermore consider the laws of thermodynamics which stipulates that gasses (and plasmas) wont self-compress under any force-free circumstances. Rather the opposite is true. Gasses generally diffuse in space. Anyone experimenting with farting quickly discovers that they generally diffuse by the same mechanism.
Thus the earth is hollow as the iron plasma would rather quickly condense on the “cooler” inner shell surface of the hollow earth.
But then what creates the earths magnetic field? Well, currents flowing inside the solar system. Entering at in the north and exiting in the south. If you are in doubt, go watch the aurora borealis up in “lapphelvetet”.
Obviously an hollow earth isn’t true as matter in its solid state likes to clump together for some thermodynamic reason. That is usually the case since there is a few forces, such as Van der Waals, liquids, crystals, etc. forming from atoms cooled below the vapor pressure.
But what is then compressing earth to its spherical, well, not quite, shape? Well, the classic “pinch effect” of currents flowing in a conductor.
https://youtu.be/5sxuBsAFuI4
But where does these currents come from you might wonder? Yes, why is there something instead of nothing and how can it possibly work, one might be tempted to reply.
But if it makes you feel any better, let me reassure you that from a relativistic point of view, you are motionless. The ground hits you.
sounds like me on the sports field at skool
i never could see the point of any of it
“The ground hits you.”
It is rather the victim that flies into the bullet and not the other way around, ask Harry.
“i never could see the point of any of it”
It’s called playing a game, having fun. Not all is about being a Tryhard Attaboi projecting yourself onto the world.
What gave you a grasp of fresh air btw? Asking for a friend, no hate.
🤔
(The Marittime Executive)
what RUSSIAN MINISTRY DEFENSE and what RAND CORPORATION say about US drone down over the Black Sea.
”RUSSIA’S MINISTRY OF DEFENSE issued a full-throated denial of the U.S. version of the events. “The Russian aircraft did not use on-board weapons, did not come into contact with the unmanned aerial vehicle, and returned safely to their home airfield,” the ministry claimed.
Russia asserted that the area of the encounter was not in everyday international airspace, but rather a Russian-designated “temporary airspace regime established for the special military operation,” the Kremlin’s term for the invasion of Ukraine. The area has a high degree of sensitivity for Russia: the war has reached the Crimean peninsula and nearby waters on several occasions, including the sinking of the cruiser Moskva, the drone boat strike on Sevastopol and the attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge. The Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet also uses the waters south of Crimea for launching guided-missile salvos at Ukrainian targets.
According to Samuel Charap, a fellow at the RAND CORPORATION, the run-in was consistent with past Russian “coercive signaling” behavior during NATO OPERATIONS IN SENSITIVE LOCATIONS.
“This is important because (based on historical patterns) the RUSSIANS WOULD HAVE HAD A CLEAR MILITARY REASON for what they did – this wasn’t a random act of lashing out. And Russian pilots would have been following instructions from ground control, not freelancing,” said Charap in a social media post. “It was an illegal and hugely dangerous action regardless, but past patterns can provide important insights about motives.”
https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/russian-fighters-force-down-u-s-drone-over-the-black-sea
My theory is that when the fuel was dumped on the drone, it entered the top mounted air scoop and drowned the engine out causing it to shut down and crash much like dumping fuel into an automobile’s carburetor will choke it off.
Hm I wonder. Wouldn’t the airspeed blow that stream to smithereens? I was thinking the top gun pissed on it first just because he couldn’t piss on it after the fact.
It’s possible it didn’t even happen.
Today, there are two versions of every news story.
Or, more realistically , if there are three people reporting this, there are four versions of the same story.
Or 500…
The head of Pentagon’s UFO office thinks that there could be an alien mothership in our solar system (Fox News)
Well…sanction the motherfu**er!
Thinks? ‘They’ should ‘know’?
Former US President Eisenhower ‘met aliens thrice’?
Read more at: https://www.deccanherald.com/content/227382/former-us-president-eisenhower-met.html
So they will think of something?
Dennis L.
It might well be. But perhaps the crew are, like the gods, just playing chess or amusing themselves in some way….
How did this one get posted here? I wish there was a DELETE button I could press.
“Could be” full of unicorns and leprechauns. I guess it gets boring staffing the UFO department.
Norman Bergrun (died 2018) had concluded in the 1970s that the rings of Saturn are “ejecta” – exhaust fumes, if you like. They are artificial, because they change regularly. Also huge craft were noted around Saturn. He concluded that they were under intelligent control and therefore must be mother ships.
Norman Bergrun – Ringmakers of Saturn
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-T5BzhE9evQ
======================================
Images of Saturn Raise Questions Of If The Gas Giant Is A Gas Station
Awfully strange!
is there an ignoble prize for astronomy?
It is already claimed by gravity-only current era “cosmology”. It is not even the pseudo science crafted by the usual Hyper Tryhards and MOARons. At least those theories are testable by rather expensive instruments.
Here’s; behold my zero division capable calculator. Try using it and it will form a black hole from nothing. It is not only capable of creating something in nothing that isn’t exactly nothing, but only has gravity and a point like abstraction in its core.
Go read some A. Peratt, W. Thornhill, H. Alfvén and H. Arp. Yep, H. Alfvén got the famous Swedish prize for his plasma physics.
Kow
forgive my waryness of any instruction that says ” use this and you will form a black hole from nothing”
Now, I realise I’m not the sharpest knife in the box, but I feel sure that someone just might have tried this before if it were possible.
not me though
“Now, I realise I’m not the sharpest knife in the box”
Sounds reasonable.
i admit it
and dont fantasise otherwise
I’ve always thought of you as more of a spoon
yup
definitely part of the family silver.
(I’m that long one you have to use when you dine with the devil)
Real estate projects in the regions on the perifery that remain unfinished:
https://index.sme.sk/c/23146503/svidnik-nedokonceny-projekt-retail-park.html
I wonder how much there is of this around the world.
in retail, a lot.
From what I understand, in SE Asia a lot of unfinished / unopened resorts are used for money laundering. Say you have a dirty business in US/EU, you get a tourist resort license in a relatively cheap/corrupted country, make it look like it will open someday (build something), then back home tell the IRS or whatever that the cash is from your many resort customers in SE Asia. That would be the same kind of cash and hard to check.
“the last major economy where the
28:48 government said actually we’re going to create money and they put several billion dollars in circulation was the
28:55 US government under John F Kennedy in the year 1963. and it was the last year of his life
29:02 when he challenged the Federal Reserve and then since then no other government has dared to do that . . . ?
because it’s digital
30:13 age we need a digital response from central banks well hang on we’ve been using digital currency for a long time
30:20 central bank money is only around three percent of the money supply the paper money the cash
30:26 97 is digital money created by Banks and
30:31 we’ve been using this for decades so we actually have been using digital currency for a long time and it works
30:36 very well and there’s no problem with it but now central banks will come to that
30:42 they’re saying hey we need Central Bank digital currency well”?
“the last major economy where the
28:48 government said actually we’re going to create money and they put several billion dollars in circulation was the
28:55 US government under John F Kennedy in the year 1963. and it was the last year of his life
Of course they created additional money, the economy was growing at a rapid rate. You need more money when that happens.
And if for whatever reason the economy stops growing… you need more money when that happens.
If the economy gets smaller you end up with too much money in the system and not enough stuff.
Empty shelf problem. Nothing to buy, even if you have money.
“central bank money is only around three percent of the money supply”
I was wondering what the percentage was, but I hadn’t sat down and made the comparison. If this is the case, the big reason for M2 being down may very well be money migrating out of the banking system because interest rates paid on deposits are too low (rather than the direct effect of QT)
I like the plant pruning in the spring: it is a way of removing complexity and making the plants younger.
This is a rather unflattering portrait of young Greta, although it is accompanied by a very nice photo of the young lady deep in thought:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2023/03/14/nolte-greta-thunberg-deletes-tweet-predicting-irreversible-disaster-by-2023/
Greta “Damien” Thunberg was forced to delete a tweet predicting the world could no longer be saved in 2023.
So why did she delete this tweet?
Because we’re already a quarter of the way through 2023, and if the world can no longer be saved, if it’s too late to reverse climate change (which is a hoax), Greta and her fascist agenda are no longer relevant. After all, if it’s too late to save the world, we might as well party on, right?
Here’s what happened…
In June of 2018, the high school dropout tweeted a quote from an article predicting, “climate change [which is a hoax] will wipe out all of humanity unless we stop using fossil fuels over the next five years.”
In other words, the point of no return is 2023. In other words, nothing can be done if we do not stop using fossil fuels by 2023. Well, if nothing can be done, that means the entire environmental movement might as well pack up and go home. What’s the use of doing anything if it’s too late? If we’re doomed, Greta might as well get off the stage and live the life she would have without all the artificial establishment hype around her—and that life would be behind a convenience store cash register.
By my count, this is the 54th prediction these enviro-fascists have had to take back. Throughout my misspent life, various politicians, “experts,” and scientists have made 54 dire predictions about the environment, and not one of them—not one!—has come true.
The environmental movement is 0-54.
Why would any listen to a group of fabulists who are 0-54?
Suppose a scientist knocked on your door and warned that a meteor would hit and destroy your house within the next six months…. What would you do? Well, you’d move out, of course. But let’s say the meteor didn’t hit, and then six months later, this same scientist knocked on the door of your new house and warned of another meteor. What would you do? Would you move out or laugh in his face? Now try to imagine your reaction if this happened 54 times!
That’s the environmental movement.
Now that we’ve successfully debunked the Apollo Moon Landings Hoax, we move on to even more challenging and more important terrain. Debunking the Jordan Peterson Hoax.
Amazingly, the amazing Amazing Polly has done precisely that, researching how Peterson is offering an anti-WEF vision that is in terms of social conditioning is actually not too far away from what they are selling, how he submitted to masking and jabbing in order to maintain his precious freedom of movement, about his daughter Mikhaila Peterson, the CEO of Luminate Enterprises (Luminate—Illuminati; get it?), and what happened to him when he became a benzo junkie and had to go to Moscow for several months of recovery and subsequently claimed to have zero recall of much of his time there.
Some people will find this even more trivial than the moon landings stuff, but (given that many of my offline acquaintances are fans of Jordan) I find it fascinating as well as not just amazing, but amazingly amazing.
https://rumble.com/v29zxuu-listen-bucko-peterson-is-controlled-op-answer-comments-and-going-in-to-more.html
Wouldn’t surprise me – I don’t trust anyone who claims to have multi jabbed…
See Steve Kirsch
Key national socialist figure. Tulsi was on his podcast a week or two ago.
Always good to have Rumble grifters (banned from youtube for telling the truth!) telling you what to think.
Gail, do you think humans walked on the moon?
Ivan that question patterns with the lengthy conversation I had with the pretty, young field operative a couple days after her arrival here at the farm. She asked me two pointed questions which, upon reflection over the subsequent day or so, led me to sniffing her out. The first was an odd follow-up question to a question for which I had no answer: ” But if you WERE political, what would your politics be?” The second question that tipped me off (alongside a few other things I previously mentioned like the iphone “that didn’t work”) was, “If the world totally collapsed tomorrow, would you be able to survive it here?”
Gail aired her doubts the other day. Pay attention.
I have something to confide. I am that operative, tracking your online movements after my work in Malmö.
Good, these people need to be monitored now that they rumbled our moon landing hoax.
The claw on your hammer is there for a reason, friend.
You may not be an operative but you have the soul of one was my point.
She’s not dummmb.
No
then have you paused to consider the sheer elaboration of the collective hoax if that were true Gail?
First–20 odd actual astronauts, all sworn to secrecy—+ families and so on–that amounts to hundreds of people in total
Then the tech people, scientists, + families etc etc—all in on the secret, that would potentially run into thousands.
We wont count the thousands of other personel linvolved indirectly in building and launching etc etc
then there’s the ‘set builders’, to ‘create the moon’ scenery–plus all their nearest and dearest.
You would thought at least one of them would have engaged in a little pillow talk about it.
all ‘in on the secret’, one way or another.
Not one person with any verifiable credibility has come forward to prove any of this.
Add to all that, and you have signals coming from the moon itself, which could be picked up by the best scientists anywhere in the would, who would be able to pinpoint where the signals were coming from.
I discussed that point with a friend of mine who actually builds radio stations from scratch—He just rolled his eyes—“its just bandied around all the time apparently—just doesn’t stack up.
And as far as I know—this moonloonery stuff didnt come to the surface untill ‘social media’ became available as required to spread this stuff.
Mooning landing 1969-72—As far as I know, no hoaxarama until about 2015 or so.
I agree that the Apollo program was a daft idea.
That doesn’t mean it didn’t take place
Right, it would be like believing that an organization, let’s call it Mafia, could conduct its clandestine and criminal operations over centuries in a country, let’s call it Italy, without any of the thousands of people involved coming up with the idea of going to a police station to denounce themselves and their capos. Unthinkable. Impossible!
Ergo, Mafia cannot and does not exist. It’s just an invention of the carabinieri, or maybe the FBI.
Italy’s largest mafia trial in three decades has begun, with 900 witnesses testifying against more than 350 people, including politicians and officials
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/13/italy-mafia-trial-ndragheta-calabria
Cosa Nostra has been around for at least 200 years.
Who knows, maybe one day you might read in the Guardian:
“The largest NASA’s trial in three decades has begun, with 900 witnesses testifying against more than 350 people, including scientists, officials and politicians.”
that has no relation to my comment
all the thousands who need to be involved in the moonloonery hoax are not under threat of death if they reveal’ the truth
i welcome arguing a point–sometimes one as daft as this.
but let’s field like for like
and not pitch nonsense in support of nonsense
Far more are involved in the covid hoax… and this is a hoax that has killed and maimed millions…
And it’s been going on for 3 years….
Most people working in the hospitals around the world know that they are giving Midazolam to people with severe respiratory illnesses…
Warnings
Midazolam can slow or stop your breathing
https://www.drugs.com/mtm/midazolam.html
How is it possible that this could happen without CNNBBC and the medical profession exposing it?
You asked a question norm – I answered – your turn
norm won’t answer. This is norm at his finest… pathetic
The UK has ended covid shots for those under 50, yet the FDA just approved a 4th booster for INFANTS for a variant that no longer exists, for a virus that never affected them, even AFTER all of the death and injury from the shots, and they did it based off a trial of 24 participants
@DowdEdward
Wazzzz up with this norm?
Oh .. and it doesnt stop them from getting or dying from covid – in fact it increases the odds of both.
Silly me .. I forgot … logic and facts are racist… and anti geriatric.. how dare I pull that on our buddy norm…. sorry norm … I didn’t mean to insult you with logic and facts.
It’s the same as convincing 6 billion people to inject Rat Juice – untested garbage — believing it is Safe and Effective… even when they still get covid and end up in the hospital.
And they see loads of young people including athletes dropping with heart attacks.
hahahaha… They are MOREONS. They are so easily manipulated that they MUST be controlled
Norm
You forget that the dominant culture is fundamentally predicated on compartmentalization. The People Farm has an unlimited budget for crossfencing its acreage. You’re forgetting the legendary state of the art compartmentalization project that was the Manhattan Project, and that was way back when. You’re conveniently forgetting the NDAs and the axiom that you can’t get a man to understand something his paycheck depends on him not understanding. You’re forgetting military culture. My CIA dad didn’t know what anyone in any of his stations throughout his whole career was working on. His station chiefs didn’t even know what he was working on. Everything went through encryption between him and Langley, regardless of what country he was stationed in. Can you imagine what that does to a person? It sure sounds like torture to me.
at my age i often forget who i am
i often finding myself saying “do you know who I am?”
And I’ve read your comment 3 times reante—and still have no idea what you’re going on about.
When you first became an inmate of OFW, I put you on the ‘fairly sane’ wing.
Now I think you are about to be downgraded to move in with the rest of us.
I think you may have been getting too trusting with the trusties.
norm’s lost another friend… he’s now in the antic with withnail…
Hey guys – feeding time…
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/AFR-0agoRjw/maxresdefault.jpg
Your strategy is always the same, Norman, to play dumb and change the subject. A noisy troll is what you are.
please define the point of subject change
am most interested
The thing is…
norm is what he is … but he does not realize it.
he cannot even be considered a lighweight…
But that’s ok … he reminds us of what the world looks like outside of OFW… and serves as a reminder to avoid them
No matter how much logic and facts you throw at such people it is impossible to get them to admit they were wrong… they do not believe they are wrong… they really don’t. Bad DNA?
Further to that point … how can it be possible that anyone could believe this landed on the moon????
It’s so blatantly obvious it could not survive the extreme conditions…
Yes a young child or a mentally re ta rded adult could be made to believe it did… but we are not dealing with such people here on ofw…. there is something else at play
I bet CTG could explain it.
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/2b/07/e6/2b07e6acd2c53c3a5f8a911121015059.jpg
eddy
If you could manipulate the English language to create wit, it would be worthwhile
but stop embarrassing everyone with your silliness
norm just wishes Fast Eddy chose him…
Watch his reaction when he is shown the footage demonstrating they faked lunar orbit … he is very upset… scared even…then watch what he does after… and what his son says … they threaten to shoot him…. ‘you wanna call the CIA and have him wacked’
Hmmm.. now that’s a bit of an odd reaction no?
Then go to the beginning and watch Buzz’s reaction to being shown that footage.
I guarantee you this was considered a highly classified project — and the riot act would have been read to these men. To expose the mission = treason.
And we only have to look to Assange to see what happens to those who leak stuff.
Keep in mind Assange leaked the US military gunning down a reporter.
https://youtu.be/mhTqrSX5N4M?t=2640
eddy
a few years ago you fooled me into opening a clickbait video of someone harrassing an astronaut about a moon landing etc etc
it was very clear what the purpose was
thanks eddy—i havent opened a link from you since
Yes don’t bother … ‘it’s too long’.
Can anyone remember what mike said to explain why he was getting injected with Rat Juice? Something along the lines of ‘to be able to go to the donut shop’
OFW Lines of Infamy.
It took place in a studio
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/71/cb/8f/71cb8fd91cb79b3176ea2d96f4eef546.jpg
glad to see youre up to speed eddy
is it 30+ so far this morning
I wish i had your stamina
So does Super Snatch
Did you notice that half the posts had this photo – repetition of the anti lie is the only way to under The Big Lie
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/71/cb/8f/71cb8fd91cb79b3176ea2d96f4eef546.jpg
always know when eddy is on the argumentative skids
out trots the se xual innuendo
absolutely never never never ever fails.
You would need the basic set for something else, of course. Shooting a western or something distopic. Or an ‘artist’, exploring the possibilities of set lights.
And the core you stuck together as always. Religion, drugs and blackmail.
i kinda lost your thread there Jan
Brevity + Conviction = Excellent!
https://c.tenor.com/6vvL7C_nd74AAAAC/tenor.gif
BTW – I am going to the super market and will buy some big rolls of tin foil … then to the hardware store to purchase some wood and cardboard panels… and I will make my very own lunar lander …
I even have an unused dish on the roof (previous owner of the Goat Ranch had cable Tee Vee…) so I can attach that so that we can pick up phone calls from Biden …
It’s gonna be away better than this
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/2b/07/e6/2b07e6acd2c53c3a5f8a911121015059.jpg
🙁
Utopia – final episode
“Don’t need a pandemic to make people take the vaccine – only need the fear of a pandemic”
If you want to be wrong, then follow the masses.’
-Socrates
No pandemic means no virus.
Yoshua says the virus is airborne HIV. It seems these days you can’t even trust a random person on the internet. Shame.
As I recall Yoshua also referred to the ‘virus’ as an organism, so Yoshua is neither here nor there on the matter.
We here to think not trust. You’re here to make white noise.
And for those who are somewhat resistant, a little help from some psychopathic thug who explains that you must take it, or there will be consequences which will possibly result in immediate violence. So, most decide to take it following the path of least resistance. As they submit, they catch a glimpse of their friend who recently went through the process… now lying motionless on the floor with their eyes stuck open. Panic sets in, but is extinguished after a moment or two.
Excellent series.
There is no mention of no jab no job … vaccine passes etc… I suppose they can’t be too detailed or the MORE-ONS would catch on …
Notice the silence on the moon thing since this etc… people eventually connect the dots if you draw lines from one dot to the other for them
https://archive.org/download/AS11-40-5922/AS11-40-5922.jpg
History shows again and again
How nature points out the folly of men..
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/US-CPI-2023-03-14-services-core-mom.png
Services less energy services Weight in CPI MoM YoY
Overall 58.1 0.6% 7.3%
Airline fares 0.6% 6.4% 26.5%
Motor vehicle insurance 2.5% 0.9% 14.5%
Motor vehicle maintenance & repair 1.1% 0.2% 12.5%
Pet services, including veterinary 0.5% 1.8% 10.5%
Rent of primary residence 7.5% 0.8% 8.8%
Food services (food away from home) 4.8% 0.6% 8.4%
Owner’s equivalent of rent 25.4% 0.7% 8.0%
Postage & delivery services 0.1% 0.2% 7.7%
Hotels, motels, etc. 1.1% 2.3% 6.7%
Recreation services, admission to movies, concerts, sports events 3.1% 1.2% 6.3%
Other personal services (dry-cleaning, haircuts, legal services…) 1.4% 1.4% 5.6%
Water, sewer, trash collection services 1.1% 0.8% 5.2%
Video and audio services, cable 1.0% 1.6% 5.1%
Medical care services 6.6% -0.7% 2.1%
Education and communication services 4.9% 0.2% 2.9%
Tenants’ & Household insurance 0.4% -0.1% 0.8%
Car and truck rental 0.1% -0.5% -0.8%
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/03/14/services-inflation-rages-at-four-decade-high-sticky-entrenched-fueled-by-rents-auto-insurance-repairs-airfares-hotels-pet-services-food-services-delivery/
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/US-CPI-2023-03-14-services-core-YoY.png
My interpretation:
The shutdowns really wrecked a lot of services, including business travel, conventions, funerals, big weddings, hair dressing salons, dry cleaning. Hotel prices were lower.
Now, demand is building back up again and there is no way to increase capacity. Prices are rising.
Dowd has been showing the epic vax injuries and deaths.. that also puts a lot of pressure on the labour market…
Another consequence of lockdowns and paying people to do nothing — is that many people now want to be paid to do nothing… so they do as little as possible knowing it’s unlikely they will be fired — and if they it’s easy to get another job due to the mass staff shortages.
A friend is GM of mid sized business — he says he’s never seen anything like this in terms of both trying to hire people and motivate people to work — they are understaffed by one third!
https://thumbs.dreamstime.com/b/staff-wanted-urgently-written-memo-office-city-staff-wanted-urgently-written-126079682.jpg
She took it to travel… duh
https://www.theepochtimes.com/young-pilot-fights-post-jab-heart-issues-speaks-out-on-covid-shot-fears_5115037.html
California Funeral Home Reports a 20-Fold Increase in Perinatal Deaths
“So these are deaths of infants that are either born or shortly before birth that basically died. And the rate of that is very small: it’s about five or six per 1000 births where this occurs. So for this to go up by more than a factor of 20 after the vaccines rolled out is very disturbing,” lamented (@VacSafety) Founder Steve Kirsch (@Stkirsch).
“And nobody wants to talk about it. And the funeral home that told me about it said, ‘Well, don’t tell anyone that we told you this. Otherwise, we’re going to get in trouble.'”
https://twitter.com/VigilantFox/status/1635711783217274886?s=20
“Lund said she hopes that people on both sides of the political spectrum—and on both sides of the COVID vaccine mandate debate—can look for answers more open-mindedly.
“If you are extremely pro-vaccine, don’t blow people off when they say they have had an adverse side effect to the vaccine,” she said. “You need to be more understanding and listen to other people’s experience and listen to the studies that are coming out and maybe try to do some critical thinking as far as what you put into your body.
On the other hand, people who are anti-vaccine “need to be more understanding of the pressure that people are under and how scared they were of the pandemic,” and about their willingness to trust the government-appointed experts, Lund said.
I found those to be great points.
“On the other hand, people who are anti-vaccine “need to be more understanding of the pressure that people are under and how scared they were of the pandemic,” and about their willingness to trust the government-appointed experts, Lund said.”
And there’s the BIG FAIL. Trusting those in authority, like Joe Bidet, Tony Fraudci, Albert Bourla and others. People were setup and lied to. The lies first started with the virus came from bats, we now know that the overwhelming evidence is that the virus leaked from a lab, conspiracy theorists be damned.
We were lied to that these were vaccines instead of experimental drugs with NO prior data whether they were safe or effective. The data shows they are neither. This is what the conspiracy theorists were pointing out and now we are seeing young people such as Sierra Lund experience life threatening reactions.
And yet Lund makes excuses to keep the charade going. If people were brave enough to ask questions first, we might not be in this mess today. It’s the same thing back in 2001 with the USA enacting the Patriot Act which gave us the TSA. That led to other surveillance encroachments by the US Gov’t with the NSA, FBI and other government agencies, spying on their citizens.
The vaccine mandates were just an extension of the TSA because people thought the government had good intentions. They did not.
Ronald Reagan had the best quote ever: “The nine scariest words in the English language are: I’m from the government and I’m here to help”.
The real question is how many learn from their mistakes?
I suggest that it will be a precious few.
Ya but after what the Pro Vaxxers said about those who refused… how can you not resist the urge for a nice SCHAD when one of them goes down…
It’s human nature to SCHAD on those who attacked you.
Eggs… my run to the super market was unsuccessful again yesterday — sign says – due to the transition to free range and the banning of caging chickens… supply is extremely short… I spoke to someone working there and they said most days no eggs arrive.
I am not buying the cage story … surely if the plan was to transition — notice would have been given to farmers well in advance so that they could upgrade their operations.
Perhaps orchestrated as part of the Global Holodomor sub plan of UEP — condition the mob to shortages.. so that when the lockdown comes they just wait for the food trucks to deliver?
OMG – it’s the terrifying Farmers again!
https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/45850
https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/45848
Slow Collapse, Controlled Implosion: “It’s Gonna Be Whack-a-Mole All the Way Down” – Ed Dowd
“Now we’re at the endgame because the US dollar is in all corners of the world; the debt that’s been created using something called foreign-dollar-denominated debt, and that’s choking the credit system. That’s why Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia are all meeting to delink from the dollar. Basically, we’re at the end of the US Federal Reserve Currency as the world reserve currency. And what you’re going to see is our government and the powers that be in this country tried to save that. So whatever we see going on is a fight for who’s going to control the world reserve currency status going forward.”
Full Video: https://rumble.com/v2d0ggm-the-collapse-of-silicon-valley-bank-is-meant-to-control-big-tech-and-usher-.html
I haven’t listened to all of this yet. It starts out with Ed Dowd talking about this being a controlled series of small bank collapses. He sees the end game as moving all of the banking into the six large banks, using the new digital currencies. The little banks will fail or be merged into the big banks.
I see the quote above. I very much agree that we’re at the end of the US Federal Reserve Currency as the world reserve currency. I hadn’t realized that Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia are all meeting to delink from the dollar. It is not surprising.
Europe will be doing miserably, also.
I question whether there will be a world reserve currency going forward. There might be one for the China/Russia and affiliates group. And a different model for the rest of the world.
NASA caught lying again. They told us that only Armstrong and Aldrin landed on the Moon, and Collins remained in the Command Module. However this picture clearly shows all 3 of them on the Moon’s surface.
http://apollofryup.atspace.co.uk
This is like trying to convince a Rat Juicer that the Juice is killing people by showing him hard evidence in the from of data provided by their government.
They will dismiss it — unless… they read it on Huff.
If it was not fake news — it would be on Huff.
Right norm.
Trust Huff
It was such a debacle. and that picture of course was taken with celluloid film at temperatures of 130C. In 2001 they were only slightly better and had to memory hole videos that they showed non stop that night.
American Moon – pro photographers discuss the impact of extreme cold heat and radiation on film…
https://youtu.be/KpuKu3F0BvY?t=8603
The Eggheads have it all figured out …so sorry, guys..try doing some research for a change..this is getting tiresome..Nuttie
We now know exactly how much radiation astronauts will face on the moon
By Mike Wall published September 28, 2020
https://www.space.com/moon-radiation-dose-for-astronauts-measured
This is like “debating” another obvious with you all.
https://climateandeconomy.com/2023/03/14/14th-march-2023-todays-round-up-of-climate-news/
Nice find. Along these lines, I have been working through this recent article on Aulis
https://www.aulis.com/j_white_col6.htm
I’ve taken a closer look at the moon picture, and that is definitely Collins. No doubt whatsoever.
Not Joe Biden? You’re absolutely sure of that?
That photo also confirms what I’ve always suspected:
The moon is only about six feet in diameter.
Withnail, change my mind!
You can drive someone insane if you disrupt the cognitive dissonance process
Or, conversely, drive someone sane if they were previously raving bonkers.
It’s like electric shock therapy without the electrodes.
I never get tired of this song.
As I’ve always been a bit bonkers, I yearn to plunge recklessly into sanity, but can never quite summon up the courage….
Sanity = joining the normals… they make the definitions…
So best avoided
Time to exterminate. Really… this is worse than feeding people to lions
https://palexander.substack.com/p/maria-loupis-is-100-right-who-in
I’m an old guy 🙂 regardless of the fact that that girl is a man (and I feel sorry for her), I can only accept women playing till Judo (and men should do the same). I think that should be unacceptable that women punch one another in the face or other parts of the body with that violence.
Classic Judo doesn’t create any irreversible and destroying effect on the body, on the contrary punches yes.
This is the maximum that should be tolerated, if I’m of old school 🙂
A 10 month-old Baby Could Have FOUR Covid Shots for “Best Protection”
https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/a-10-month-old-baby-could-have-four
norm:
https://www.publicdomainpictures.net/pictures/190000/velka/smiling-man-2.jpg
It is an IQ test. Any parent that allows their baby to have four shots by 10 months does not deserve to reproduce. Evolution in action.
France. Imagine what they’d do if the police walked away…. hate to be anyone perceived to be making the decisions … e.g. a govt official … banker… wealthy person… they’ll be coming for them all if UEP fails
Women would not want to go out on the street …
https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/45839
They protest, make a mess, but every time they vote Macron..
Voting doesn’t make energy depletion go away.
Could be all elections are fixed?
that is a possibility
Do they use Dominion machine to take the vote?
I used to have a liberal clown friend (that ended when he pushed me to get the Rat Juice…) who was a huge Biden supporter…
While Trump was in office he was pissed off because Trump wanted to stop illegals from entering the country … his reasoning was that they were from impoverished countries and deserved better.
Duh. the US spent a lot of money and effort pillaging them … and then you open the door? WTF?
Check this out https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/45828
Excellent – 0 likes.
This confirms that I am right
https://www.eugyppius.com/p/bill-gates-the-global-depopulation/comment/13615320
You search for evidence that the Elite want to exterminate all of humankind including themselves rather than just depopulate, escape to bunkers and “build back better” after the dust settles. Your journey takes you from the dawn of agriculture to present day peripheral countries where the Elite use religious movements, resource wars, monetary policy, juntas, color revolutions and anti-fascists to squash self-reliant communities and undermine social fabric to facilitate wealth transfer and resource extraction. You see consistent proof that the common person and Elite want to squeeze the last bit of “go juice” out of the life and the planet at all costs. But what about the Spent Fuel Rods? Martyrs, saints and saviors are threads woven into the larger tapestry of belief in higher power, appeal to authority, group think and economic and military superiority to achieve manifest destiny. Efforts to fix the problem make it worse. Live free or Die. Fire up the Rayburn.
The Elite communicate their intentions in popular media as a form of “revelation of the method.” They are supposedly a Death Cult who see humans as a virus on the Earth and/or a hereditary line that believes they have a responsibility to return the planet to optimal conditions to fulfill a divine right. My query to philosopher AI about “why did Covid-19 affect Milan, Italy” returned the response “Covid is an operating system to replace old ways of thinking and behavior to optimize the human brain and the planet. Humans can simply opt out of the Covid system but they generally don’t realize they have a choice.”
We have articles that say they are afraid of “The Event” and discuss how to protect themselves, who they can trust and where to go for safety. Archetypal weirdos Nick Cage and John Cusack star in several psi-fi and apocalyptic movies “Knowing” and “Utopia” that suggest “The Event” requires timely interventions to sacrifice undesirables and save seeds of planetary life including select humans. “Deep Impact” gives clues about how to cover up impending global catastrophe “Ellie (ELE) the mistress, Leo Beiderman (Biderman’s Chart of Coercion) and how to maintain order for selection process and continuity of government.
“Don’t Look Up” is the most recent one.. 2 scientists try to warn humanity amid political circus while Sarah Palin character as President joins hair-sniffing billionaire eccentric (a cross between Biden and Branson/Bezos/Musk) on board a spacecraft to escape to habitable planet.. Leonardo DiCaprio joins refugees from “climate change” at a last supper, a “kumbaya moment” while the wave of atmospheric destruction approaches. Conservative buffoon gets eaten alive by ET apex predator while Biden/Bezos mumbles incoherently. Dicaprio dies violently holding hands with his Liberal friends. The message is that we need to make changes now and the Technocrats offer the only chance of survival despite poor leadership.
There’s no doubt that the Elite have back-up plans to save themselves and a select group of humans.. DUMB’s, cave complexes and rocket ships will either be their salvation or burial casket for eternity. There is an older story that explains all of this in detail including Islamic Mahdi, Revelations (trouble in marketplace, civ chokepoint, world leader, cave tomb) and even older ones that warn of the larger drama unfolding Mesopotamia’s Enlil and Enki “the Anunnaki,” the Deluge and the Gnostic “Demiurge.”
I am not so sure, if they can have success that way. If they meant it earnest, they would develop different processes, start other measures and train themselves differently. We would see different research and differrent publications.
To me Kill Bill looks like a martyr that believes the bad must be done to achieve the good. That is a very different impulse. It needn’t be of any practical help.
In biology, when the carrying capacity is exceeded, the rabbits not only eat all the grass but also the roots. With the consequence that the survivors have even less to eat the next years.
To think of that has consequences I prefer to avoid.
Since years I am dreaming of people reduced to a skeleton gathering in camps and waiting their old lifes comes back. Resource depletion is easily understood in 10-min-talks. It is the consequences, that creates the problem. Perhaps I am not doing enough myself..?
There is a point, when people won’t be able to start activities, because they don’t have the physical energy and because the burden is too high. This is where I file the vaxx.
In the very beginning, there was a statement of a cell biologist Schmidt-Krüger, who said, if you do something like the that, you have to wait at least six month so the body has to some degree recovered. Not even talking about side effects! The jabs were repeated every three months…
If you take it as a wake up call, reduce all other burdens that might be on you and thus compensate any damage, was more or less the last larger public message of Sucharit Bhakdi.
If it were the way we apprehend, it would be the most sad thing thinkable. A collapse of all human intelligence and humanity. There is nothing so sad as this.
I reckon Utopia etc… is the mother bird feigning a broken wing… and luring the predators away from the nesting chicks.
Look at the effort they have expended on luring the MOREONS away from the energy depletion story … they invented GW… they not only insisted EVs solar panels etc were the solution — they actually built the cars windmills and solar farms… and funded Elon Musk (who promises Mars)….
They know all of the above is utter bullshit.
The MOREONS cannot be allowed to be exposed to the truth. We are on the cusp of a catastrophe due to the depletion of cheap energy and other resources.
They will do whatever it takes to conceal that story. $$$ is not an issue … whatever it takes means — whatever it takes…
They even created a pretty much fake war in Ukraine to cover the tracks of depletion.
Russia could obliterate Ukraine in a week… yet this goes on and on and on … we’ve all seen the fake clips … the Ghost of Kiev video game… the tanks blowing up already destroyed buildings…
The facts are:
They released Covid – a flu like illness.
They denied treatment – and used killer drugs including Remdesivir and Midazolam to murder many thousands — then parlayed the fear from that into convincing nearly 6B to shoot the Rat Juice.
They knew the Rat Juice would not stop the spread nor severe illness.
They knew the Rat Juice was killing and maiming millions.
They knew that a leaky vaccine would only result in endless mutations.
They knew the Rat Juice would wreak havoc with immune systems
Yet they continued to force the Rat Juice on people — and they continue to recommend it.
They inject babies – forced it on uni students — the military.
Then when people took ill they flung Paxlovid at them – and studies demonstrate this drug promotes mutations.
Depopulation = collapse. They are not trying to reduce the population.
This is extermination.
And they will do whatever it takes to ensure the MOREONS don’t realize this is the end game. It would only bring about the end game prematurely and result in collapse and ROF.
Sure seems to be a lot of them pilots havin heart attacks… commercial pilots have full medicals every 6 or 12 months https://flightphysical.com/pilot-medical-certification/duration
But as we know — the thresholds have all changed… they are passing pilots with heart damage… and letting them fly.
https://palexander.substack.com/p/british-airways-pilot-dies-of-heart
“British Airways Pilot dies of heart attack just before flying loaded plane; again, a passenger plane loaded will fall shortly from the sky due to vaccine induced myocarditis causing cardiac arrest”
>>again, a passenger plane loaded will fall shortly from the sky due to vaccine
Is that not what occurred here?
Nepal plane crash: last moments inside cabin caught on passenger’s Facebook live video
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/16/nepal-plane-crash-facebook-live-video
There is a major new archaeogenetics paper on ice age Europe. I will briefly summarised the drift of it.
The paper fills in the genetics of the pre-LGM Gravettian culture in Spain and southern France, and of the LGM Solutrean culture in the same, thus connecting the genetics of the earlier pre-LGM Aurignacian (Goyet genetic cluster) and post-LGM Magdalenian cultures.
Before LGM: The earliest individuals in Europe did not contribute to later. The Aurignacian culture (Goyet and probably Bacho Kiro clusters) happened; then the Gravettian, which we now know harboured two populations: the newly identified Fournol cluster in Spain and southern France, and the Věstonice cluster in central and southern Europe, including Italy. Fournol was genetically continuous with the Aurignacian (Goyet, not Bacho Kiro cluster), while Věstonice was mainly related to Sunghir from western Russia and with 36% ancestry related to the Aurignacian (Goyet).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aurignacian
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravettian
LGM: Fournol survived in Iberia as the Solutrean culture. That was a successful LGM refuge (see Magdalenians below.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solutrean
Post-LGM: (Goyet > Fournal > Solutrean) expanded north-eastward through Europe as the Magdalenian culture (with ~25% Villabruna (see below) admixture) after the LGM.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magdalenian
Věstonice was gone in Italy and was replaced by the Villabruna (Epigravettian culture), which was Near East related (and without preceding local ancestry), possibly expanding from/ via SE Europe (possibly a Balkan LGM refuge/ corridor) and likely during LGM.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epigravettian
Thus of the two pre-LGM populations, that in Spain (Fournol > Solutrean > Magdalenians) survived, while that in Italy (Věstonice) did not. However, Italy harboured a new population (Villabruna), and thus Italy too was a successful LGM refuge.
Villabruna got ~10% Magdalenian admixture to form the Oberkassel cluster before it expanded northward (as Western European HGs (WHG), dominated by mtDNA haplogroup U5 and Y-chromosome haplogroup I; >90% green/ blue eyes and dark skin) and largely replaced Magdalenians through Europe ~14 ky.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Hunter-Gatherer
Villabruna > Oberkassel cluster (WHG) admixed with Ancient North Eurasian (ANE, Siberian) to form Eastern European HGs (EHG), now named the Sidelkino cluster (a higher frequency of mtDNA haplogroups U2, U4 and R1b, and carry uniquely Y-chromosome haplogroups Q, R and J; 10-25% green/blue eyes, light skin) ~14 ky.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_North_Eurasian
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Hunter-Gatherer
Thus Villabruna > Oberkassel (WHG) was dominant in western Europe on the eve of the Neolithic, it harboured slight Fournol > Solutrean > Magdalenian ancestry, and admixed with ANE in the east to form Sidelkino (EHG).
(WHG and EHG would mix depending on time and place and also with Anatolian Neolithic Farmers (ANF) during the Neolithic, still in HG groups; at the same time ANF farmer communities largely took over and also assimilated WHG/ EHG; and then the Western Steppe Herders (WSH) invaded during the Bronze Age.)
– Press release:
https://www.mpg.de/19941740/0223-evan-ice-age-survivors-150495-x
Ice age survivors
Large-scale genomic analysis documents the migrations of Ice Age hunter-gatherers over a period of 30,000 years
With the largest dataset of prehistoric European hunter-gatherer genomes ever generated, an international research team has rewritten the genetic history of our ancestors. This study was led by researchers from the University of Tübingen and the Senckenberg Center for Human Evolution and Palaeoenvironment, Peking University and the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Leipzig, in collaboration with 125 international scientists….
– The paper:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05726-0
Palaeogenomics of Upper Palaeolithic to Neolithic European hunter-gatherers
Abstract
Modern humans have populated Europe for more than 45,000 years1,2. Our knowledge of the genetic relatedness and structure of ancient hunter-gatherers is however limited, owing to the scarceness and poor molecular preservation of human remains from that period3. Here we analyse 356 ancient hunter-gatherer genomes, including new genomic data for 116 individuals from 14 countries in western and central Eurasia, spanning between 35,000 and 5,000 years ago. We identify a genetic ancestry profile in individuals associated with Upper Palaeolithic Gravettian assemblages from western Europe that is distinct from contemporaneous groups related to this archaeological culture in central and southern Europe4, but resembles that of preceding individuals associated with the Aurignacian culture. This ancestry profile survived during the Last Glacial Maximum (25,000 to 19,000 years ago) in human populations from southwestern Europe associated with the Solutrean culture, and with the following Magdalenian culture that re-expanded northeastward after the Last Glacial Maximum. Conversely, we reveal a genetic turnover in southern Europe suggesting a local replacement of human groups around the time of the Last Glacial Maximum, accompanied by a north-to-south dispersal of populations associated with the Epigravettian culture. From at least 14,000 years ago, an ancestry related to this culture spread from the south across the rest of Europe, largely replacing the Magdalenian-associated gene pool. After a period of limited admixture that spanned the beginning of the Mesolithic, we find genetic interactions between western and eastern European hunter-gatherers, who were also characterized by marked differences in phenotypically relevant variants….
Thanks for the summary! Very interesting!
“When the money supply contracts…then banks start to collapse”
“The M2 money supply has contracted by 2 percent… that’s the most in 100 years”
Looks like Gail is on the right track with what’s going on…again
https://mobile.twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1635331347177947136
Thanks very much. I hadn’t seen the data series back that far.
but the 26% spike in 2021 looks unprecedented.
I’m not convinced that this is cause and effect.
it could be, but it also could be just a readjustment from the abbbsurd 2021 increase.
and a way to bring down surging inflation.
many banks were using high risk business models, so that could be the bigger reason.
Trust the science.
The science of Eugenics!
HAIL!!!!!!!!!!
They are trying hard for bank runs. I almost succumbed to Biden and Yellen assuring “your money is safe”. If thats not a fear creation technique Ill eat four paks of ramen. (notice i DID NOT say my shorts). Its EVERYWHERE. FEAR FEAR FEAR. Radio cable internet. They want bank runs on small banks bad.
Do you see it going systemic like they are pulling the plug or do you see it as controlled?
and if there are no more bank runs this week, what would the new rethinking conclusion be?
The PR and Strategy Team are chess grand masters of their trades… we are amateurs… impossible to know what they are up to with this banking stuff
Other than if it is happening and it is on CNNBBC — they want it to happen
Why would the organism want bank runs on small banks bad if it is busy knocking on heaven’s door with dozens of B-52s? Because it likes horse’s doovers?
Jig is right. If it all goes kablooey then it is because they WANT it to go kablooey.
The poor can keep getting poorer and nobody gives a fuck.
The middle class can keep getting poorer and the middle class will just feel guilty and ashamed and try and hide it.
The 1% will keep getting richer as they have a hundred different ways to give themselves more money and the rest of the top 10% will soak up some of that wealth too.
Demand destruction and consolidation is the name of the game and all of you here have already lost you just dont know it yet.
so if there are no more bank runs this week and the banking system doesn’t collapse, then that’s what “they” wanted, right?
right?
You can’t make 90% of society seriously poor as in hungry unless you want to be overthrown.
jigisup, I appreciate your comments about nuclear exchange and warning systems. That’s not something I suspect many of us know much about here.
It is part of a multipronged attack by the Globalists to destabilize the US and from there, the rest of the world (the US is the toughest nut to crack because of the 2A, reserve currency status, relative energy independence for now, and geographic isolation via two oceans.)
1.)Dumbing down of education system: diversity, inclusion, and equality= DIE
2.)Destruction of family unit via government subsidies. “Mothers, you can marry any bum you want, and don’t worry if he leaves you to make more babies with another hoe, we’ll give you more welfare. Fathers, we don’t care if you stay around to be fathers.” Like our “fire and forget” missiles, it’s f*#k and forget.
3.) Fractional reserve debt based fiat central bank monetary system- the great enabler of a fascist state through giving the politicians the ability to pay, via debt with printed money, the promises they make to voters to get themselves re-elected, and then become magnets for corporation influence money, (bribes) and from there, giving corporations “quid pro quo special legistation (loopholes) and tax treatment in return to allow the fascist state to snowball.
4.) Abandonment of rule of law. Evidence is suppressed. No evidence, then no case. Sorry! Judges are owned. Pennies on the dollar returns for the bribes.
5.) Control of the media to advance disinformation, propaganda and censorship.
6.) Flood the border with illegal aliens who will never assimilate into a western culture but who will promote societal division and disuption.
7.) Promote destructive hoaxes like COVID, Climate change, violent manipulations in interest rates, pump and dump equity wealth extractions from working productive people and transfers to the parasitic elites.
8.) Promote “electrification”, green energy (solar and wind) shale and shut down coal and oil to strand people with useless EVs and 15 mile radius city confinement. Make the required “safe and secure” US Treasuries suddenly drop below the value needed for small and medium banks to remain solvent, thus concentrating monetary control into the big banks who get bailouts- just as COVID shutdowns devastated the mom and pop small businesses while funneling everything to Amazon and WalMart.
9.) Attempt to get the world into a CBDC for control. WEF, BIS etc.
10.) Food production, processing, and distribution disruption.
11.) Creating an illegal gun registry by photographing expired (after 20 years) FFL 4473 forms- to enable future confiscation to disarm US gunowners.
12.) Watch as Antifa and BLM burn the cities, and early released prisoners go out and commit new crimes and then claim we need more gun control.
13.) Militarize the whole world. UKR vs Russia. Destabilize sovereign governments.
That sounds a whole lot like what is happening.
Reading down your list my comment would be that the first five I’d heartily concur as confirming what I’m seeing locally and from what I read almost universally else where. Part of the Globalist Agenda? Probably. The rest; a bit of a mixed bag depending on nation.
2.)Destruction of family unit via government subsidies. It has struck me as curious that the IMF in their agreements to extend lending by the odd billion is demanding nations undertake tax increases, particularly regressive sales taxes which fall most heavily on the poor. Along with removing fuel and other subsidies on essentials. Then, they suggest compensating those who qualify with welfare to partially compensate applicants loss of purchasing power. The obvious lags and constraints resulting from govt regulated qualifications are glaringly obvious.
Interestingly, the IMF also seems to like to squeeze nations to focus on ridiculous green/nuclear projects, extremely long term, privately owned or partnered but fantastically expensive and geared to victim hardcurrency indebtedness. I cannot imagine how such perpetrating creatures and their compradors can sleep at night. In great fear, it’d be just to think …
#2 was funny:
“Mothers, you can marry any bum you want, and don’t worry if he leaves you to make more babies with another hoe, ”
Another hoe? That makes the first one a hoe, too. Hubbs ain’t messing around tonight!
It is part of a multipronged attack by the Globalists to destabilize the US
No it isn’t. The US consumes too much and produces too little, that’s all.
It also throws its weight about in the rest of the world but it turns out it can’t really fight wars any more.Its bluff is being called.
Look, look, over here, it’s the ‘wicked’ Russians/Chinese or the Globalists.
Don’t look over there at the plutocrats and the M.I.C., there’s nothing to see.
Planned takedown of share market using banks going under caused by interest rate increases that way peak oil is never suspected meanwhile high interest rates slow down intake of diesel allowing trucks trains to keep up supply chain ensuring food supplies what’s more important food or building homes and making cars the diesel must be conserved the elders know this.
I just browsed some CNNBBC sites and there’s not much on this … eg. https://www.cnn.com/
They are trying to avoid bank runs. Bank runs destabilise society like food, fuel or electricity shortages.
When they don’t use CGI they like to use video game programming…
https://nypost.com/2022/05/01/heroic-ghost-of-kyiv-fighter-doesnt-actually-exist-ukraine-admits/
It doesn’t matter — people will believe whatever CNNBBC tells them to believe
They even believe this landed on the moon hahaha
https://archive.org/download/AS11-40-5922/AS11-40-5922.jpg
If people believe that… well… what won’t they believe?
On March 10, 2023, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failed after a bank run, causing the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history and the largest since the 2008 financial crisis. The collapse of SVB has had a significant impact on startups from the US and abroad, with many unable to withdraw money from the bank.
10 banks with a toxic balance sheet cocktail, if Commercial Real Estate drops further
We have moved our focus to banks with a large Commercial Real Estate exposure, which is clearly suffering as well. Find the 10 banks with the worst balance sheet cocktail on our LIVE-blog.
As the “discount window” is now wide-open at the Fed, we’d argue that most contagion risks surrounding hold-to-maturity bond-books are now a thing of the past, why we have moved our focus to banks with a large Commercial Real Estate exposure, which is clearly suffering from contagion effects.
The commercial Real Estate HY 5y index is now back at levels not seen since 2011/2012 and it has a tendency to lead to overall performance of commercial regional banks with a large exposure towards CRE.
We have ranked the regional banks from worst to best on the CRE / Total Assets ratio and find reasons to worry about the banks with an extraordinary large exposure to CREs in these times of funding stress. CRE may very well be the next shoe to drop, and no one / very few are talking about it.
Banks with a combination of few bonds to use in the new discount window and a large exposure to CRE may be at risk now.
Three banks have a worse cocktail than Signature bank, which has already been closed by authorities on Sunday.
https://andreassteno.substack.com/p/10-banks-with-a-toxic-balance-sheet
I can believe commercial real estate has a major problem.
Weak Demand, Falling Prices and Potential Distressed Activity Predict Muted Sales for 2023
https://www.commercialedge.com/blog/national-office-report/
Here he goes again … nobody is responsible… it’s ‘the system’
https://www.eugyppius.com/p/bill-gates-the-global-depopulation
Yep nobody decided to give death drugs to people with Covid (and the flu) and murder them so that the mob would be scared and shoot Rat Juice
WTF?
The ban is lifted:
This is not a depopulation agenda.
Depopulation would collapse the global economy and destroy civilization.
Randomly strip a billion or more people off the planet and the financial system implodes (unpaid debts)… the global supply chain dies (not enough workers)…
For more on why depopulation is not possible I suggest this fine paper
Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: a study in global systemic collapse.
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://mahb.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Trade_Off_Korowicz.pdf
Let’s all agree – it’s not depopulation – or a Great Reset — or whatever heap of BS we’ve been fed by the PR Team via CNNBBC and others.
So what is it? And why?
It is extermination. Because we are running out of AFFORDABLE resources particularly energy.
A teaser:
SEE PAGE 59 – THE PERFECT STORM : The economy is a surplus energy equation, not a monetary one, and growth in output (and in the global population) since the Industrial Revolution has resulted from the harnessing of ever-greater quantities of energy. But the critical relationship between energy production and the energy cost of extraction is now deteriorating so rapidly that the economy as we have known it for more than two centuries is beginning to unravel https://ftalphaville-cdn.ft.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Perfect-Storm-LR.pdf
I do recommend reading this entire paper – it was written by the head of research at a global energy trading firm. https://uk.linkedin.com/in/tim-morgan-6a465b4a
So why extinct the species? This explains what happens if they fail to act:
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=220
Yes I know oil is abiotic.. we have oceans of it remaining — that’s why we are steaming oil out of sand right? Drilling miles beneath the oceans…. making a pin cushion out of Texas dropping bombs down to blow up the rock and sucking out the dregs.
Sorry but no. It’s a finite substance and we burn nearly 100 million barrels of it each and every day.
All good things must end. And they were ending in 2019. That’s why the men who run the world pulled the trigger and the extermination plan was launched.
Rant and rave and scream at me if you like. But it is what it is.
The PR Team will do it’s best to distract you from their real intent. They will toss all sorts of narratives out there (they even built nice websites! https://time.com/collection/great-reset/) to lead you away from The Truth.
Which is a good thing. If the mob got wind of what I have just told them and accepted The Truth… they’d unhinge… they’d stop working, studying, investing… paying bills … and the world would collapse out of control.
Nobody wants that. Better to pre-empt the carnage with extermination.
If there is a short big picture article from OFW that ties everything together … let me know and I will add it. I like to use Perfect Storm because it appeared on CNNBBC… so they might read it
Moody’s downgrades its rating of the US banking system to ‘negative’.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/14/moodys-cuts-outlook-on-us-banking-system-to-negative-citing-rapidly-deteriorating-operating-environment.html
Wow
If it was a situation that they were not using to promote and agenda… or it was really bad…
They’d not tell you. What would be the point?
Attention Delusional Rat Juicers
We all know about Midazolam
John Beaudoin, Sr. gives us some good graphs on the devastation of REMDESIVIR and how it is linked to catastrophic RENAL failure in Massachusetts
Drive deaths up – scare the MOREONS >>>>>> the Rat Juice hahahah
https://palexander.substack.com/p/john-beaudoin-sr-gives-us-some-good
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1f80e03d-c87d-4456-a07b-2e5a77455dee_746x1012.jpeg
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc13bfec9-82af-4214-b0c8-5a7c2297cccf_1920x1020.png
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8c188b6e-7f1b-46f0-963d-d9f81dff738e_900x881.jpeg
Remdesivir seems to cause death by kidney failure.
Odd ball thoughts:
1. If the universe is being tweaked, then the tweakers know many of the answers they want. It takes time, billions of years.
2. If the tweakers know the answers they want, they are ahead of the tweaked(us) and we are discovering their desires. This does sound a great deal like God’s will; not going there, I am a fabric of the universe guy.
3. Biology seems to be the ultimate creation of the universe, it looks like a very hard problem, it starts with a literal bang as a ball or iron is required and that is an industrial project for space; the tweakers skip mining and refining. Laughing quietly, different timeline, blow up a star, local pollution, so what?
4. What is next? If we go to machines, AI, etc., we are no longer biology. Tongue in cheek, that could lead to some interesting tweaks as it is a reversal of the process to date. Will the tweakers welcome us, or will there be a cosmic frown?
Industrial answers are no longer on earth, biologically it will work, the industrial age on earth is pretty much over. We can’t burn ff as it will destroy the biology, we don’t want to freeze, we need to lose waste heat and have useful heat. Plastics? Does either sex really want smaller penises? They will think of something.
Interesting times,
Dennis L.
Certain oddball theories posit that our souls are timeless electromagnetic entities, able to interact or participate in the physical world only through electromagnetism or perhaps at the quantum level, i.e. in the electrical spikes of neurons etc. So we exist somewhat apart from this physical reality, but can manipulate it via our link the electro-chemical networks called brains in these meat-bodies.
OH WOW!!!!
He does what I call The SCHAD Dance at the end:
https://twitter.com/unhealthytruth/status/1635462957298507779
Hahaha, in the immortal words of Howard Cosell, “Down GOES FRAZIER, Down GOES FRAZIER”.
Costa Titch
US ‘Reaper’ drone brought down by Russian jets in the Black Sea.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-reaper-drone-downed-over-black-sea-incident-russian-jet
The MSM is going on like Russia should allow USA to use drones to do surveillance so that Russian soldiers can be killed.
“Hey, it is in international waters, so we have the ‘right’ to do that, it is ‘moral truth’.”
Like anyone with a functional brain even ‘believes’ in the ‘moral truth’ shtick any more.
It is obviously a falsification of the nature of reality so that other people conform to the narrative.
Humans have bred a gullible population over thousands of years, and states still treat them as gullible sheep.
To be fair, there is no ‘moral reason’ why they should not – try to keep up!
“All morality is will to power.”
From a website I read… “A second SU-27 moved in so close to the rear of the Drone, it’s wingtip was able to hit the rear mounted propeller of the drone, breaking one or more of the propeller blades. (How’s THAT for precision flying?), and the damage to the propeller forced the drone to crash into the sea.”
Took that MFing drone to flight school baby.
Take THAT for blowing up our pipeline!
Sorry if I use an Italian way of saying about what happened, actually one from the South of Italy.
Using strictly technical terms, the drone was ‘sfruculiando’…
😀 😀 😀
https://it.glosbe.com/nap/it/sfruculià