The bumpy road ahead for the world economy

In the post-World War II era, the US has been known for its hegemony–in other words, its leadership role in the world economy. According to one definition, hegemony is the political, economic, and military predominance of one state over other states. I believe that the US is not far from losing its hegemony. The conflict over future hegemony could lead to a major war.

Hegemony is surprisingly closely tied to leadership in energy consumption. A country with a high share of the world’s energy consumption doesn’t have to depend on imported goods and services from around the world. It can manufacture weapons of war, if it chooses, in as large quantities as it chooses, without waiting for outside suppliers.

One part of today’s problem is the fact that the world’s fossil fuel supply, particularly oil, is becoming depleted. Extraction is not rising sufficiently to keep up with population growth. In fact, total fossil fuel extraction may begin to fall in the near future. In some sense, the fossil fuel supply is no longer adequate to go around. To relieve the stress of inadequate supply, some inefficient users of energy need to have their fossil fuel consumption greatly reduced.

My analysis suggests that the US and some of its “Affiliates” tend to be inefficient users of fossil fuels. These countries are at great risk of having their consumption cut back. The result could be war, even nuclear war, as the US loses its hegemony. After such a war, the US could mostly be cut off from trade with Asian nations. In this post, I will elaborate further on these ideas.

[1] Hegemony is closely related to energy consumption because energy is what allows an economy to manufacture goods of all kinds, including armaments needed for war. The energy consumption of the US as a percentage of the world’s has been falling since 1970.

Data on energy consumption by part of the world is readily available only back to 1965, rather than 1945. Based on this data, US energy consumption as a percentage of the world’s total energy consumption has been falling since 1965.

Figure 1. US Energy consumption as a percentage of world energy consumption, based on data from BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Figure 1 shows that the US’s share of world energy consumption amounted to 33.3% of world’s energy supply in 1965, but only 15.6% in 2021. In other words, in 2021, the US’s share of world energy consumption in 2021 was less than half of its 1965 level.

There are some economies that have much in common with the US. The countries in this category are advanced economies that have democratic governments. I expect these countries would tend to follow the US’s lead, regardless of whether its actions really make sense. The selected economies are the EU, Japan, Canada, the UK, and Australia. For convenience, I call these countries Affiliates.

[2] Affiliates consumed over 35% of the world’s energy supply in the 1965 -1973 period, but this has fallen in recent years.

Figure 2. Energy consumption for selected advanced economies (referred to in this post as Affiliates) as a percentage of world energy consumption, based on data from BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy. The EU is based on 2021 membership.

Figure 2 shows that Affiliates consumed 35.5% of the world’s energy supply in 1965. By 2021, their consumption fell to 17.6% of the world’s supply. This, too, is less than half of the 1965 percentage.

[3] The energy consumption of US plus Affiliates as compared to the energy consumption of Rest of the World has shifted remarkably since 1965. The consumption of the Rest of the World has been soaring, while that of US plus Affiliates has shrunk.

In Figure 3, I add together the amounts in Figures 1 and 2 and compare them to the indicated energy consumption of what is left, which I call, “Rest of the World.” It is clear that there has been a huge shift in which grouping consumes the majority of the world’s energy supply.

Figure 3. Comparison of total energy consumption as a percentage of world energy consumption for US + Affiliates and Rest of the World. Amounts based on data from BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

We all know that if a political party has the support of almost 70% of voters, it is likely to be dominant. There is a similar issue with energy consumption. Energy consumption is used in every aspect of the economy. It is important for manufacturing goods and transporting them to their destinations. It is also important for creating jobs that pay well.

If world energy supply is growing, it encourages growth of the world economy. Growing energy supply indirectly allows debt to be paid back with interest. In general, the faster the world’s energy supply is growing, the higher the interest rate that can be supported.

Without growth in energy supply, an individual economy is forced to become a service economy. It is forced to import almost all of the manufactured goods that it needs, even armaments needed for war. Such an economy is forced to place an emphasis on growing debt and growing complexity. Unfortunately, both of these things are subject to diminishing returns. As growth in energy supply turns to shrinkage in energy supply, we should expect debt bubbles to pop.

A country is likely to stop making advances in the sciences as it shifts to a service economy. This linked chart by Visual Capitalist analyzes patents in 2021 by the country of the individuals listed on the patent applications. On this basis, China’s patent count was more than double that of the US. China is also the major producer of many clean energy technologies because it has both the resources and the technology.

As a service economy, the US has tended to specialize in healthcare, with spending in this sector accounting for 18.3% of GDP. Yet the US’s healthcare results are dismal. US life expectancies have fallen behind those of other advanced countries. The recent covid vaccines, which were strongly advocated by US health authorities, worked far less well than had been hoped. In February 2022, the New York Times published an article, US Has Far Higher Covid Death Rate Than Other Wealthy Countries.

[4] US data shows that its energy consumption was rising rapidly in the 1949 to 1973 period. Such rapid growth in energy consumption would make other countries envious. It would tend to expand America’s hegemony.

Figure 4. US energy consumption for the period 1949 to 2022 based on EIA data with fitted exponential growth indications for periods chosen by author.

Figure 4 shows how quickly US energy consumption was growing, starting in 1949, using EIA data. Energy consumption growth averaged 3.5% per year in the 1949 to 1973 period. This rapid growth is what we would expect of a country that was an energy leader for the rest of the world. Standards of living could rise. Parents could often afford to raise several children.

An article in the Oxford University Press says that the US’s proliferation of major military bases overseas was developed in the 1950s and 1960s to contain communism and to provide global defense of US interests. Such a huge build-out of bases during this period would not have been possible without the rapid ramp-up in US energy consumption.

Between 1960 and 1969, the number of miles of high-voltage long distance electricity transmission lines tripled. This was evidence of the rapid growth in electricity production that the US was achieving; it was a pattern that other countries would want to emulate. It added to the hegemony of the US.

Statista shows that between 1951 and 1973, the number of US automobile sales per year more than doubled, from 5.16 million to 11.42 million. With this increase came a need for more paved roads and more pipelines to carry oil products. With its growing energy consumption, the US was able to accomplish all this growth. Growing energy consumption also allowed the US to manufacture nearly all the vehicles sold in the US in this period.

[5] US hegemony faced a major challenge in 1970 when US oil production hit a peak and started to fall.

Figure 5. Monthly US oil production through February 2023. Chart by EIA, with notes by Gail Tverberg.

US crude oil production rose rapidly until 1970, when it suddenly started falling. Work was quickly begun on oil extraction from the North Slope of Alaska. This oil offset most of the decline in oil production from the lower 48 states through the mid-1980s.

US hegemony depends upon the quantity of energy products US businesses and citizens consume. When oil prices become unaffordable, citizens and businesses buy less. Figure 6 shows that oil prices had been amazingly low prior to 1973, averaging only $16.31 per barrel, even after adjusting for inflation to 2021 price levels.

Figure 6. Average annual Brent spot oil prices, together with average prices for the fitted growth periods shown on Figure 4. Based data from BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Comparing Figure 6 to Figure 4, we see that once oil jumped up to an average of $73.14 per barrel in the 1973 to 1983 period, US energy consumption flattened out. At this high price, efficiency became more important. Smaller imported cars, often from Japan, became popular. The US and several other parts of the world started building nuclear power plants to replace electricity created by burning oil. Within a few years, oil production was ramped up in other parts of the world, such as the North Sea and Mexico, relieving the tightness in oil supply.

Once oil prices began to rise again in the 2005 to 2008 period, US oil from shale became available in response to higher prices. The catch was that at these higher prices, oil tended to be unaffordable by the American public. Oil was still affordable in most of the Rest of the World, however.

These “Rest of the World” countries tended to use oil much more sparingly in their energy mix. They often had other advantages as well: warmer climate, lower wage levels, recently built factories, and an energy mix that emphasized coal (which tended to be inexpensive). These advantages helped bring down costs of both manufacturing and resource extraction for the Rest of the World. The shift in energy consumption shown on Figure 3 could occur.

This shift in manufacturing and resource extraction away from the US and Affiliates creates problems, however. If the US and Affiliates are increasingly at odds with countries outside this group, it becomes much harder for the US to exert hegemony over these countries. The problem is that the US depends upon the countries it is at odds with for necessities. Even in making munitions for the Ukrainian conflict, the US needs to depend on China and other Asian countries for parts of its supply lines.

[6] The world economy is now headed for a bottleneck. The world economy is similar to a Ponzi Scheme, with growth in the output of goods and services necessary to fund financial promises of many kinds. There are limits to the amounts of fossil fuels available at affordable prices, and the world is hitting those limits now.

Because the world economy follows the laws of physics, the growth in the output of goods and services depends upon the continued growth in the production of energy products.

Figure 7. World Energy Consumption by Source, based on Vaclav Smil estimates from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects and together with data from BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy for 1965 and subsequent. Wind and solar are included in “Biofuels.”

We have known for a very long time that fossil fuel output is limited. Back in 1957, Rear Admiral Hyman Rickover of the US Navy gave a speech warning that world-wide fossil fuel energy supplies were expected to become unaffordable between 2000 and 2050. High oil prices seem to have been a major factor underlying the Great Recession of 2008-2009. This especially affected the US, with its large amount of subprime housing debt. The problems experienced since late 2021 with spiking prices of oil and high prices of imported coal and natural gas are also evidence of the limits the world is reaching.

Figure 8 shows my view of where future world energy supply is headed. While this chart was originally prepared in 2020, the forecast still seems to be reasonable, especially if regulators get their way in mandating the reduction of (unaffordable) fossil fuel use.

Figure 8. Amounts for 1820 to 2020 similar to those from Figure 7, above. Amounts after 2020 assume an average reduction of 6.6% per year to 2050.

If energy consumption falls this rapidly, the world economy will have to adapt in many ways. Economies that cannot tolerate high oil and energy prices are likely to be squeezed out. Based on what already has been happening in Figures 1, 2, and 3, the United States and Europe are especially likely to be adversely affected. The countries that are likely to fare better are ones that don’t require as much energy per capita. These countries are likely to be in warm climates and have relatively poor populations, such as those in Southeast Asia.

As energy supplies fall, business failures and debt defaults can be expected to soar. Governments will be tempted to backstop every financial promise, including failed banks and pension plans. If they do this, other countries will be unwilling to trade using their debased currency. With too much money and few imports, the result is likely to be hyperinflation. If the governments simply allow bankruptcies to take place, the result is likely to be deflation as banks and businesses fail.

[7] The US has been having increasing difficulty in its hegemony role. Some countries have come to believe that the US is now acting unfairly.

Back when the US first attained hegemony, oil and other energy supplies were inexpensive and their supply was growing rapidly. The US was experiencing great economic growth, and other countries wanted the same sort of success. The US plus Affiliates were the ones using the majority of energy products, so the interests of almost all energy users were aligned.

Things have “gone downhill” since 1970 when the US oil supply first started to shrink (Figure 5). Suddenly, the US needed help from the financial system to work around the need to import more oil. One change (in August 1971) was making the dollar a fiat currency, rather than tied to a gold standard. This enabled greater use of debt in operating the economy.

Without the gold standard, the US dollar was able to become the world’s reserve currency. Instead of gold reserves, other countries began buying US Treasuries, which they considered to be a safe store of their money. The US dollar could also play a greater role in financing international transactions. A 2021 analysis by the Federal Reserve shows the dominance of the US dollar in many areas of trade.

This dominant role for the US dollar is now being questioned after the US froze the central bank assets of Russia, as part of the sanctions imposed in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Other countries are beginning to wonder if holding Treasuries is really a good idea, if the US can impose sanctions which make them unavailable. Countries are also figuring out that it is quite possible to arrange sales of commodities and other goods in currencies other than the US dollar.

Also, the US’s ability to win wars is not very clear. The US’s first big loss was the Vietnam War. After 20 years of fighting, that war ended in 1975, with communist forces seizing control of South Vietnam. The Afghanistan War did not go well either. After 20 years, the US abruptly pulled out. While the US claims the mission was accomplished, it is hard to see that the high cost was justified.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict does not appear to be going well for Ukraine and the allies supporting Ukraine. The US and NATO are having difficulty supplying as many armaments as quickly as President Zelensky would like. Ukraine seems to be using up its conventional weapons very rapidly. Neither the US nor other NATO countries can manufacture weapons very quickly, in part because supply lines from around the world are required. How helpful is the US’s hegemony, if the US can’t even easily win a “proxy war” in Ukraine?

There are sanctions, other than freezing assets, that are of concern to other countries. A recent list from a Chinese source lists the following types of hegemony that it considers to be problematic.

  • Political hegemony – Throwing the US’s weight around
  • Military hegemony – Wanton use of force
  • Economic hegemony – Looting and exploitation
  • Technological hegemony – Monopoly and suppression
  • Cultural hegemony – Spreading false narratives

Quite a few countries in my Rest of the World grouping are clearly getting fed up with America’s hegemony. Increasingly, Middle Eastern countries that were previously at odds with each other are setting aside their differences. They are also becoming much more closely aligned with China. Countries in this group, as well as the BRICS group of countries, are already taking steps toward trading in currencies other than the US dollar.

[8] The path ahead looks very bumpy. The US is likely to be kicked out of its role as global hegemon. Rival countries may choose to attack the US with nuclear weapons, or the US may lash out with nuclear weapons as it sees its hegemony fail.

As I analyze the world economy’s future trajectory, I see the following situations falling into place:

(a) The world economy is being stressed by inadequate energy supplies. When prices rise, it tends to cause inflation. Some countries are experiencing a second kind of stress, as well. Their central banks have raised interest rates. This is a dangerous thing to do because it tends to cause falling asset prices in addition to slowing the economy.

I expect that countries that have recently raised interest rates will have many bank failures. Partly, this will come from the falling value of long-term bonds. In time, it will also come from failing real estate mortgages and other loans, since asset prices will tend to fall with higher interest rates. Governments will be tempted conduct massive bailouts. The countries that have recently raised interest rates include the US, the UK, Eurozone countries, Switzerland, Canada, Australia, and Brazil.

Countries that did not raise interest rates, which seem to include China, India, and Iran, will find their economies less affected by bank failures. Russia temporarily raised interest rates, and then lowered them again, so Russia would also seem to be less affected by bank failures.

Countries that raised rates will be tempted to do bailouts of banks and of “too big to fail businesses.” These bailouts will greatly increase the monetary supply, making countries that didn’t raise interest rates unwilling to trade with them. This dynamic will tend to increase the trend toward two separate trading areas–one including much of Eurasia and one including the US, Canada, Europe and perhaps South America.

(b) If we think about it, cutting back greatly on trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific shipping would save a great deal of oil if there is not enough oil to go around. This will be another impetus for “Rest of the World” countries, especially those in the Asia-Pacific area, to cut back on shipping across the major oceans.

(c) With failing banks and a cutback in trade between regions, the US dollar will cease to be used as a reserve currency for a large part of the world. The US dollar might still be the reserve currency for some trades, particularly with other countries in the Americas.

(d) I expect that a block of countries will eventually coalesce, centered in Asia, that will mostly trade among themselves. China will probably be the leader of this block.

(e) The US and Europe will mostly be pushed off to the side, to trade among themselves and some geographically close neighbors. These areas may need to set up new financial systems using much less debt. These countries will not be able to produce advanced goods, such as computers, by themselves. They will not be able to build new solar electricity generation or new wind turbines because too much of the supply chain will be out of reach. While these countries have been looking at digital currencies, it is not clear that there will be a stable enough electricity supply to make such currencies possible.

(f) There will probably be war at the time of the division into the two (or perhaps more) trading areas. Nuclear weapons may be involved since there are many countries with nuclear weapons. The supply of conventional weapons available for warfare is depleted, with the ongoing war in Ukraine. According to a study done at Harvard, involving 16 cases in which a major rising power challenged an existing major power over the past 500 years, 12 cases ended in war. This analysis would suggest a 75% likelihood of war.

(g) I don’t know what the timing of all these things will be. Bank failures are just beginning. Let’s keep our fingers crossed that the world economy holds together a while longer.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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4,101 Responses to The bumpy road ahead for the world economy

  1. Mirror on the wall says:

    Further countries are aiming for de-dollarization. It is turning into a flood of basically everyone.

    The members of ACU are the central banks of Bangladesh, Bhutan, Iran, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar.

    De-Dollarization to Be Discussed at Asian Clearing Union Summit: CBI

    TEHRAN (Tasnim) – An official with the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) said that important decisions will be adopted about ditching the US dollar and reducing dependency on it in bilateral transactions during the 51st Asian Clearing Union Summit.

    In addition to the participation of nine main members of the union, Russia, Belarus, Afghanistan, and the Islamic Development Bank (IDB) will take part in this event, Deputy Governor of Central Bank of Iran for International Affairs Mohsen Karimi stated.

    He said that three of the nine countries are observer members of the union.

    It is hoped that good decisions will be taken at the summit on sidelining the US dollar in bilateral transactions and also reducing dependency on banking and monetary infrastructures, he stated.

    Elsewhere in his remarks, Karimi said, “We will host the governor of the Central Bank of Russia in Tehran tomorrow to discuss pertinent issues.”

    The Iranian and Russian banking officials will mull over the agreements inked between the two sides in the previous year, he continued.

    The 51st Asian Clearing Union Summit will be held at the venue of the Central Bank of Iran on May 23-24 to discuss reducing dependency on the world’s major currencies, especially the US dollar.

    • Presumably, someone will figure out a way to transition away from the dollar, sooner or later.

    • ivanislav says:

      Anything but gold or oil backing seems messy.

      I’ve been talking about dollar demise for more than a decade, but ultimately a basket of crap currencies from the third world isn’t going to do it either. No one wants to hold them on account of inflation. A return to gold backing could work, with savers holding physical (as in India?) to ensure solvency rather than trusting the banker class frauds. Trade in bilateral currencies can also work, but I suppose that complicates business dealings.

      So I expect gold backing or bilateral currency arrangements, with lower levels of foreign-currency reserves by national central banks in either case.

      • Dennis L. says:


        The world runs on energy part of which is used to extract resources; all the transactions add up to GDP.

        Currently GDP is more chickens picking and a pot that is overall decreasing; Gold is useless other that maintaining some honesty in transactions and industrial uses.

        Accepting degrowth means other than immediate transactions fiat is worthless. Any transactions involving a resource which is a carbon loss are losses, overhead.

        Governments generally have a monopoly on force, those that don’t fail or are subject to a strongman in the shadows.

        Economics is basically a biological construct, without people and biology there is no economics.

        All the stuff one would ever want is all around us; be old school and Titan has carbon based fuels to last the human race. Acces is the problem, but, no indigenous tribes can lay claim to them.

        Dennis L.

    • Jarle says:

      > Further countries are aiming for de-dollarization. It is turning into a flood of basically everyone.

      Go go go!

  2. Fast Eddy says:

    The Inside Scoop On My Favorite Writer on Substack
    Who Is the Midwestern Doctor?

  3. Fast Eddy says:

    F789 All Vaccines… All of them

    And if any of them have any benefit — let everyone else (aka the MOREONS) take the risks hahahaha

    I’ll want that on my tombstone

    Health Outcomes for Unvaccinated Kids ‘Look Great’ as More Parents Decide to Go Natural

    “Going natural in every study so far looks great,” detailed renowned cardiologist Dr. @P_McCulloughMD.

    One study ( in particular found that unvaccinated children had a lower incidence of asthma, ear infections, allergic rhinitis, neuropsychiatric syndromes, etc. than vaccinated children.

    And a Kaiser Family Foundation survey “now suggests a large number of parents are considering going natural. They’ve seen enough of this.”

    We evaluate exemptions for all types of vaccines — and for all ages.

    Learn more at

    • People will make money off of anything, including selling exemptions from taking vaccines.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Like buying a get out of death free card. Sign me up!

        Might be that vaccines are a form of population control. Cuz they don’t protect you from jack shit

  4. Fast Eddy says:

    What ROF looks like – just remove the police

  5. Fast Eddy says:

    The BBC is actually explaining to you how they will lie to you … and the MOREONS are nodding their heads like f789ing imbesils… priceless

  6. Fast Eddy says:

    John Campbell

    • This is the video of John Campbell discussing a deal that the UK government has to buy an mRNA vaccine for influenza vaccine from Moderna. The vaccine has not yet even finished its stage one trial, so there is no evidence that it is save and effective. John Campbell thinks this is bizarre.

      • Xabier says:

        The fantastic success of the entirely safe and effective (Amen!) Covid vaccines is of course the foundation of the British government’s faith that the novel flu vaccine in development by Moderna will be just as wonderful, hence the confidence shown in buying it up-front.

        After all, we know that the failure of drugs in trials is historically a vanishingly rare occurrence, and that 99.9% turn out to be amazing miracles of technology.

        Given the brilliance of Moderna’s first product, we can predict a 130% success in the trials at the very least…..

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Why even bother testing at all? Just let er rip!

          As you point out – how much more worse can it get (considering this will be an extinction event)

  7. Fast Eddy says:

    5:00 mark – I just want to be straight with you – I think you are crazy.

    CNNBBC at its finest!!!

  8. Fast Eddy says:

    URGENT: Huge new study shows mRNA Covid jabs sharply raise the risk of severe vaginal bleeds

    The researchers then tried to downplay their findings; welcome to the age of vaccine-apologetic science


  9. All the advances the developed world, especially USA, accomplished was possible because USA (and some other countries) were able to get labor and resources for next to nothing.

    With a multipolar world, USA and its friends will have to buy resources in a price which is more in sync with what countries with resources demand.

    if today’s so called rules based order falls, USA and its friends will have to pay an arm and leg to obtain resources, which means the end of all progress and prosperity in the developed world, once for all.

    I am sorry, but today’s system has to go on the expense of the resource producing countries, who lack the skill and talent to advance civilization.

  10. Let’s say a genie listens to Keith and Dennis L and we get energy material from the space.

    All gains will be monopolized by those who own the apparatus to claim such energy and material.

    All gains from the new lands Spain and Portugal won were monopolized by the Spanish (and Portuguese after 1640) Crown. Emperor Karl of Habsburg, who doubled as the King of Spain, used the gold from New World to beat the shit out of the French King Francois, and King Felipe II built the Armada.

    Meanwhile the people of Spain remained desperately poor, and the old feudal land system continued. Some reforms were made after the Republicans took power in 1931, but Franco negated ALL of the gains and the feudal order continued all the way to 21st century in some regions.

    The Andalusian land reform ended in .. 2011.

    Sorry. All the gains from the space will be monopolized and the ordinary people will not see ANYTHING from it.

    • hkeithhenson says:

      “All the gains from the space”

      A more recent example might be the robber barons who built the early railroads (and got stinking rich). But the ordinary people were better off as well, better diet and ability to travel across the country. And the riches of one of them went into Stanford University.

      It is not yet clear that power from space makes economic sense. It is also possible that governments are the only organizations big enough to fund them, somewhat like the early days of hydro. But if they are built, lower cost power would seem like a good idea for everyone.

      • keith

        travel doesnt make you rich (unless you own the means of travel)

        what you do at either end of the journey makes you rich (or not)

        sliding up and down a space pole wont make you rich—unless you own the space pole.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          says norm who avoids any place that a curious person might visit

          Tell us your favourite travel destinations norm starting with Disney World …

  11. Student says:

    (DI LEI)

    Sudden death at Ischia for British actor Ray Stevenson during filming his last movie.
    The event was so sudden that the ambulance could only register his death.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Nobody connects the dots… especially the Vaxxers.

      Ideally we get a big name to actually die during a game – gotta be in the big market – USA – NBA and NHL playoffs continue… that would be huge.

      • I AM THE MOB says:

        Lady I work with got her cat juiced. And two months later it’s losing weight rapidly. So, she has to take it back to the vet and costs her 500 bucks. They tell her “they can’t figure it out”

        She still can’t connect the dots.

  12. Fast Eddy says:

    Mass D

    Just thinking … as the non-MOREONS progress on this journey that culminates in UEP… there is a continuing awakening … some refer to this as levels of consciousness… the very greatest of the great (e.g. Fast Eddy) go from MOREONS to measuring their Greatness in Horse Power in excess of 1500.

    And then there are those who till there dying day … rmain MOREONS… believing the same BS that they believed decades ago… changing their minds never… flicking on BBCCNN sitting mesmerized by the programming… admiring the presenters of … the programming… zombified imbesils .. trusting the BBCCNN… if it’s not on the BBCCNN it’s ‘conspiracy theory’….

    These are the same folks – 6 billion of them nearly — who have injected the Rat Juice.

    And the most amazing thing is that one can show them clearly that they are zombies… but they – being zombies — cannot see the obvious — they cannot correct their ways… they cannot awaken… one can even taunt them mercilessly — yet they will still believe they are right (cuz CNNBBC told them so)

    They are doomed to spend their entire lives… as zombies.

  13. Ted Kaczynski says:
    Eyeing a future of waning oil demand and rising sales of electric cars, Exxon Mobil is set to begin mining lithium, a key ingredient in EV batteries.

    Exxon has bought drilling rights for a 120,000-acre swath of southern Arkansas that is estimated to contain enough lithium to supply 50 million electric vehicles, The Wall Street Journal reports. The $100 million investment, small for a company of Exxon’s size, does not signal a major strategy shift, but it does reflect a rapidly changing market in which EVs increasingly displace gas-powered cars.

    In its latest energy outlook, Exxon projects that fuel demand from light-duty vehicles will peak around 2025 and that, by 2050, EVs will account for more than half of all new car sales.

    Oil majors are bracing for the shift. Some, like BP and Shell, are betting on renewable energy. Others are focusing on extraction. Occidental Petroleum is investing in technology for drawing up underground lithium. Exxon could begin mining lithium in the next few months, the Journal reports.

    The new venture comes a half-century after Exxon chemist Stanley Whittingham helped develop the lithium-ion battery, an invention for which he later won the Nobel Prize. Exxon began manufacturing the batteries in 1976 but stopped a few years later owing to meager demand.

    For U.S. Companies, the Race for the New EV Battery Is On

    Yep, looks like the panic button has been hit…that ain’t gonna save anyone

  14. Ed says:

    food, heat, electric, fertilizer, cars, houses, travel, freedom, people

    A simple and effect plan.

    • Fighting seems to be part of the plan, as well. More for me, less for you.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        Exactly, the increase in conflict is exactly what we would expect in a situation of heightened competition for diminishing resources.

        There are always going to be various ways to frame wars and their ‘reason’, ‘intent’, and ‘meaning’, but it always liable in the final analysis to come down to power competition and resource access.

        Framed in that way, the ‘rational’ or ‘realistic’ motive of NATO is to disrupt the power and resource access of Russia and China, while their motive is to keep a good thing going on that count and to likewise disrupt NATO. The complexities of a globalised economy, and their interdependence, makes that all the more complicated.

        NATO would love to get easy and sole access to Russian energy and other resources, and to contain China as a rival power – but the situation is complicated.

        It could be argued that this is an ‘opportunity’ for the ‘world to live together in perfect harmony’, but the real world, and physics tendencies, tend to be quite the opposite of that.

        The world very much seems to be headed toward increased turbulence.

        I am more interested in understanding the situation and its dynamics than in moral posturing about it, which does not really ‘change’ the world anyway – or we would all be living in a Coke advert by now.

        Perhaps plain water is the supposed ‘Coke’ catalyst for global harmony now. It reaches the moralistic parts that bourgeois Coke never could?

        The globalisation of the American dream may be dead, but plain water is going to do it for us.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          I don’t get this … Russia is not exactly bogarting the joint … they are sharing … they power the EU.

          And what’s the point of fighting when we are past the peak and doomed anyway? That would just waste more resources

          The world is on board with UEP … all the leaders have signed up … it’s imminent… why fight? For the first time in history – the entire world agrees on something!!!

        • hkeithhenson says:

          “the increase in conflict is exactly what we would expect in a situation of heightened competition for diminishing resources.”

          True. Humans have been selected to go to war when there is a resource crisis. Because the young women (who carry the genes from dead warriors) are incorporated into the winner’s tribe, it turns out that from the gene’s viewpoint, going to war is around 40% better than the alternative of half the tribe starving.

          Unsettling, to put it mildly.

        • Tim Groves says:

          Kin selection or alturism?

          “I would gladly give up my life for two brothers or eight cousins.”

          Quote Investigator informs me that John Maynard Smith wrote the following in a book review in the New Scientist in 1975:

          I first heard the idea in the now-demolished Orange Tree off the Euston Road; J. B. S. Haldane who had been calculating on the back of an envelope for some minutes, announced that he was prepared to lay down his life for eight cousins or two brothers. This remark contained the essence of an idea which W. D. Hamilton, a lecturer in zoology at Imperial College, London, was later to generalise. Unfortunately, Haldane, although he referred to the idea in an article in Penguin New Biology, did not follow it up, and may not have appreciated its importance.

          Haldane wrote the following in an article entitled “Population Genetics” published in the New Biology in 1955.

          What is more interesting, it is only in such small populations that natural selection would favour the spread of genes making for certain kinds of altruistic behaviour. Let us suppose that you carry a rare gene which affects your behaviour so that you jump into a river and save a child, but you have one chance in ten of being drowned, while I do not possess the gene, and stand on the bank and watch the child drown.

          If the child is your own child or your brother or sister, there is an even chance that the child will also have the gene, so five such genes will be saved in children for one lost in an adult. If you save a grandchild or nephew the advantage is only two and a half to one. If you only save a first cousin, the effect is very slight. If you try to save your first cousin once removed the population is more likely to lose this valuable gene than to gain it. But on the two occasions when I have pulled possibly drowning people out of the water (at an infinitesimal risk to myself) I had no time to make such calculations.

          • hkeithhenson says:

            The model for genetic selection for psychological traits for war depends on Hamilton’s rule, the genes of the dead warriors march on through their female children.

            Of course this depended on the cultural trait of incorporating the female children of the losers into the winner’s tribe.

      • Dennis L. says:

        Feminism dead then? Does this mean women will need to return to being cunning linguists?

        Can’t wait to see if this one escapes moderation. Sometimes it is hard to help one’s self.

        Dennis L.

        • as my old latin teacher used to say, in response to some howler pronounced by one of us unwashed urchins


          a lapsus lingui

        • I think that today’s feminism is only possible because of fossil fuels and the birth control made possible by fossil fuels. The ability to control deaths by better sanitation and antibiotics helped a lot as well, but these would also not be possible without fossil fuels.

          The natural order is for women to give birth to quite a few children, with most of them dying before they give birth to other children. I expect that without fossil fuels, the world will tend back in this direction.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            We need to get back to our roots


          • the world was never the same after women got shoes

            only cheap surplus energy allowed women to have shoes

            after than, they wanted it all

          • Cromagnon says:

            when I express that sentiment I get called a caveman….or worse.
            Over the target….

            • Once a person understands all of the miraculous things that cheap energy does for us, it becomes clear that feminism as we have it today can only take place with a fairly abundant supplemental energy supply.

              Without abundant supplemental energy supply, the value of the physical labor of men becomes very important for many types of activities, such as warfare and road building. Women tend to be smaller; their role has to be somewhat different.

              I mentioned earlier the problem of the high birth rate and the high death rate of children. Besides the physically smaller size, this is one of the issues that limits the roles of women.

              There is also the issue of very limited schooling being possible, without adequate supplemental energy supplies. If an economy can provide formal education to a small percentage of its population, it is likely to disproportionately allocate the spaces available to boys, since most women will need to be mothers, if the population is to be maintained. Most education for both men and women is likely to be apprenticeships. Women will generally learn from their mothers and female relatives. If a girl’s mother has been a shop-keeper, she may learn to become one as well.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Ask SSS about norms linguistic cunnings

          • i dip into one eddy at random, for my morning amusement

            and there i am again–being obsessed over

            not healthy eddy—not healthy at all

      • Ed says:

        This is one of the most interesting parts of the story now.

        When will Antarctica be opened for energy exploitation? How much Arctic coal will be exploitable with warming?

        • too late

          if the entire antarctic has a gigantic coal/oilfield under it

          we have no means to use it

          oil is useless until it is converted into something else.

          a melting icecap won’t change that

    • again (and again)

      there is no plan

      we have done all this to ourselves

      what appears to be a plan, is each nation trying to save its ass from everyone else and the inevitable.

      And our glorious leaders trying to save their jobs

      and none (repeat none) of them has the slightest idea what to do about any of it…..anymore than any inmate of OFW

      • “what appears to be a plan, is each nation trying to save its ass from everyone else and the inevitable” = the way a self-organizing world economy works.

      • Tim Groves says:

        Again and again, these people tell you exactly what they intend to do…and then they go about doing it.

        But a plan? Perish the thought. There’s nothing remotely like a plan at all.

        Oh, go back to sleep!

        SAGE HANA reports:

        This speech was given by Dr. Henry Kissinger at the Bilderberger Conference to elite socialists, royalty, politicians, world bankers and very wealthy capitalists in Evaians, France, in 1991:

        “Today, America would be outraged if U.N. troops entered Los Angeles to restore order (referring to the 1991 L.A. riot). Tomorrow they will be grateful! This is especially true if they were told that there were an outside threat from beyond, whether real or promulgated, that threatened our very existence. It is then that all peoples of the world will plead to deliver them from this evil. The one thing every man fears is the unknown. When presented with this scenario, individual rights will be willingly relinquished for the guarantee of their well-being granted to them by the World Government.”

        Clinton’s Deputy Secretary of State quoted in Time magazine on July 20, 1992:

        “In the next century, nations as we know it will be obsolete; all states will recognize a single, global authority. National sovereignty wasn’t such a great idea.”

        Again and again, these people tell you exactly what they intend to do…and then they go about doing it.

        “We shall have world government whether or not you like it, by conquest or consent.” – statement by CFR member James Warburg to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          We’ve had one world government for many decades… the HQ is at the Fed.

          The one world govt is executing UEP… and as we can see – the entire world is doing exactly what it has been ordered to do

        • ////“We shall have world government whether or not you like it, by conquest or consent.” //////


          i will explain why there will never be world government tim—not that i expect it to sink in, but some might ”get it”

          ask yourself—what is the prime requirement to enable the business o government.??

          The answer, and this doesn’t fit with your pre-determined thinking—is very simple.

          It is cheap surplus energy.

          Without that, no government can exist. At any scale, let alone ”world scale”

          In 410 AD the Romans were on my doorstep, then Rome itself ran out of energy an the Roman army upped and left

          I refer to Rome, because the Roman empire was roughly the size of the American empire (about 3000 miles wide).

          It is governed from Washington.

          When the American empire runs out of surplus energy, it too will implode. It’s will not be able to exert authority over such a vast land mass (just like the Romans) because they will not have the means to do so, no ifs or maybes.

          And just like the Romans, the jesusfreaks will be wringing their hands and praying for deliverance. That wont work either.

          Kissinger et al were speaking in the context of their ”present” 30 years ago—when the ”American way of life was non-negotiable” (remember that tim?)

          Of course—you may have some notion that explains how we might be governed without enforcement—I’d love to hear about it.

          And if your other ‘theory’ comes off, and there only 10% of us left it wont matter anyway because we’ll be too far apart to matter.

  15. Dennis L. says:


    ” forgiveness-is-a-religious-construct-a-means-of-maintaining-the-status-quo”

    Forgiveness is a way of moving on with one’s life, getting the one forgiven out, cancelling them. Forgiveness is for the forgiver not the forgiven.

    Corollary from JFK’s father, “Don’t get mad, get even(Dennis’ addition, and make a profit doing it, forgiveness at work, if no profit, move on, above all, don’t waste time being mad. ).”

    Well, it is not a pandemic we have beaten to death, it is not doom, and it is different.

    Meanwhile, anyone have a good idea on the first asteroid to mine?

    Dennis L.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      Christianity generally conceptualises ‘forgiveness’ in terms of ‘re/con/cil/iation’, in other words a ‘coming back together as a community’.

      ‘Forgive/ness’ has various senses in the OT/ NT that can be gone into, but the NT emphasis is on reconciliation.

      The idea is structural in the NT and Jesus is said to have ‘reconciled’ humans to God through the redemption, and the followers are likewise to reconcile in the mores and practices of the community.

      You have to bear in mind that Jesus seems to have been heavily influenced by the Essenes rather than by the more legalistic or formal Scribes and Pharisees, and the Essenes were a people apart living together in community according to ‘righteousness’ and its precepts, in anticipation of the destruction of the world and the worldly.

      And that is pretty much the meaning of ‘forgiveness’ in Christianity, it is not to ‘get over it, forget about them, do your own thing’. It is the opposite, to get back together and to live together in the community according to righteous precepts.

      The fact is that you are not living in the primitive Christian community, you are living in ‘the world’, and the preaching of Jesus and the early Christians does not really fit with your life, so you are reversing its meaning to get on in that life.

      Which is fine, it is what it is.

      But to be fair to the NT, that is not really what it is saying.

      It is absolutely not about ‘getting even’.

      And as the author of the article says, if the reconciliation is one-sided and not accompanied by conversion of behaviour, then it can simply be the perpetuation of the status quo and of an abusive relationship. The community, theoretically would take steps to avoid that, but she is not living in the primitive Christian community either.

      Christianity is interesting, but it has to be studied if it is to be understood.

      Ephesians 4:32
      29Let no corrupt communication proceed out of your mouth, but that which is good to the use of edifying, that it may minister grace unto the hearers. 30And grieve not the holy Spirit of God, whereby ye are sealed unto the day of redemption. 31Let all bitterness, and wrath, and anger, and clamour, and evil speaking, be put away from you, with all malice: 32And be ye kind one to another, tenderhearted, forgiving one another, even as God for Christ’s sake hath forgiven you.

      • Dennis L. says:

        “Christians does not really fit with your life, so you are reversing its meaning to get on in that life.”

        If this is directed at me, yes; I am very much of the belief that one gets on with life. Or, “Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.”

        It isn’t easy to walk away, it isn’t easy not to forget. We are in an age of seeming grudges that do not die out. Ironically, college campuses are a hot bed of this sort of thing.

        Dennis L.

        • Mirror on the wall says:

          Yes, I am all for walking away, and learning what to realistically expect both from other people and from oneself.

          Life is a learning process, and one learns what to expect from other people.

          ‘Ideals’ do not really come into it.

          The world is what it is, and humans are what they are.

          I am ‘over it’, which is not to say that I am incapable of ‘pay back’.

          It is all a part of life.

          People do what they do, and one does what one does.

          Whatever ‘works’ for you.

          • Tim Groves says:

            “Father forgive them, for they know not what they do.”

            “And forgive us our trespasses,
            as we forgive those who trespass against us.”

            “Judge not, and you will not be judged; condemn not, and you will not be condemned; forgive, and you will be forgiven.”

            “Apology accepted, Admiral.”

    • Right now we have a huge problem with “brokenness.” In theory, a huge amount of forgiveness could heal this problem.

      But when the problem is, “Not enough to go around,” forgiveness isn’t really enough. The problem can’t be fixed without someone coming out behind.

      I expect that businesses are getting squeezed hard right now, by the higher interest rates and the higher wage scaled for less skilled workers. They are likely to be less generous with their customers and they are likely to cut more corners. Forgiving these companies because they can’t do better is perhaps the better option.

      At the same time, government organizations (including international organizations like the World Health Organization) find them without adequate funding, unless they take funds from organizations like the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and from other groups expecting to profit from WHO mandates. What can we do about this issue? Just forgive them?

      • drb753 says:

        A practical Christian will state that we need to minimize the number of people hanging from lamp posts. Which is a good and ethical way of looking at things, change the world by killing a minimum number of people. but that will do very little to solve the problems the world is facing now.

      • Dennis L. says:

        Gail, no doubt you are right.

        A counter example is the “greater good.” Men are designed for this, very few men really want to go to war, the results are horrible to the soldiers themselves. Yet, time after time we do it, some groups survive the thrive, some do not. Seems to be the fabric of the universe

        Dennis L.

    • Forgiveness helps people like me, Kulm the Status Quo.

  16. Cheese can cause nightmares says:

    Just what we need – an mRNA influenza vaccine! I hear FE’s nickname is “Sneezy”, so I’m expecting he’ll volunteer to be a guinea pig.

    • UK is paying Moderna for a huge number of mRNA vaccine doses, before even the preliminary trials are done. This is bizarre!

      This is a way of dividing families–to get the vaccine, or not. Also, dividing voters. And subsidizing vaccine companies.

      • halfvard says:

        And getting rid of some useless eaters

      • Dennis L. says:

        Yes, corny; many people of power and influence seem to have lost their soul.

        Some here will scoff, but perhaps eternity spent burning in fire would be an incentive not to have self-interest overall. Would give some smug self-satisfaction to the virtuous group.

        Yes, I know the intellectuals will see me as a peasant, have made my share of errors, but not my soul and that is an expensive choice.

        A guess, 20% of the population leading virtuous lives is enough, and those 20% end up with most of the marbles over a period of time. Best mates, highest intelligence, best offspring. Easy, nope.

        Dennis L.

        • Artleads says:

          I live in rural Santa Fe (SF) County, and took a trip to the capital SF City today. All the retired, bent over, white bearded white men from NY and CA were there. at the mall.They fit your description of a group that had lost their soul. I tried to get some county (with mostly Latino staff) attention to my nonprofit issues, but they were entirely “out to lunch.” The plaza buildings had walls 2′ thick but the modern imitations did not, while managing the most surreal combination of beauty, solidity and utter insanity. The Twilight Zone.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Sounds amazing! City of Zombies.

            Did you take any photos?

            • Artleads says:

              It turns out that I was in pretty bad shape myself, for it’s not the county that I needed but the state. So I guess we all go down together. (But the county folks I talked to should have known that and corrected me.)

          • Fast Eddy says:

            When I was back in The Great White North — this was also happening .. the downtown was zombie-land… I should have brought my go pro and wandered the streets capturing the true essence of the period before the cannisters are released…

            The utter despair and destitution drowned in a sea of super fent and stolen booze.

            I really should have done all those folks a friendly buy purchasing a crate of cheap whiskey and handing bottles on on the street corner like the Good Samaritan that I am … I thought about it — but then you know how these days everyone has a camera … and how these left wing fanatics would be triggered by someone doing a good deed for his fellow man… then post the clips on tik tok

            That could result in Fast being featured on CBCCTV etc… and made out to be a villain … which would be patently incorrect and unfair…

            It’s not as if he’s giving candy to innocent children and enticing them Out Back some Sordid Dumpster like ….

            These are hardened drunken hobos… they have tremors if they don’t get a mug of whiskey before 10am…. Fast would be The Good Guy in all this … yet they’d have him branded as Dr Evil.

            I guess it would be ok if Fast was to offer the hobos Midazolam though .. enough to off them … cuz that would be an act of kindness cuz they are poor and clogging up the health care system – right? (actually it’s the Vax injured clogging it up so I fully support giving them the Big M… but that’s another story).

            So no – Fast did not distribute the free whiskey — and the poor hobos did not hit The Jackpot. so there are no clips

          • Xabier says:

            Sounds awful.

            You will be delighted to hear, Artleads, that our ancient market square – laid out c900AD, although the oldest building apart from the church is only late 17th c, – is now ornamented by the tasteful facade of the’Real Louisiana Chicken’ company’s latest franchise branch.

            Hugely popular too. Be proud that US culture is still global and distributing its blessings as widely as ever!

        • Dennis, you’ve come up with many a whopper on OFW, but the idea that the top 20% (or 5%,or 1%) is made up of those who have led the most virtuous lives really takes the cake.

          • oh i dunno lidia

            I am the best known stonecaster around here, whenerer there’s stoning, I’m always first in line

            totally sin free life—so far today

      • Student says:

        Dividing families and dividing voters is a key point on which not many thinks about.
        But the most frightening one is dividing families, something that we have already terribly experienced.

        • Ed says:

          “Do not think that I have come to bring peace to the earth; I have not come to bring peace, but a sword. For I have come to set a man against his father, and a daughter against her mother, and a daughter-in-law against her mother-in-law; and one’s foes will be members of one’s own household” (Matthew 10:34-36).

          As I understand it Jesus is saying we must distinguish between good and evil. The current age is having a hard time knowing what is good and what is evil.

          • drb753 says:

            I think fossil fuels are good. Lack of them is evil. and I think most people know that is all there is to it. Embellishing things with values and ideology changes things only marginally.

            • adding emotion to inevitability is un reasonable

              ie, beyond reason

            • drb753 says:

              For once I agree with you.

            • Mmm, I have more of a “Chinese man whose horse ran away”* attitude about FF. I don’t see that their (overall) supply or lack thereof has a moral component in the least.

            • drb753 says:

              Lidia, it seems clear that morals follow resources. Many many examples. So resources may not have a moral component but the point is moot, since they create morality.

            • … Resources create morality only insofar as resources keep humans alive.

              Even the poorest groups espouse ‘moralities’ of one kind or another, not so much to do with good or evil character but with winning and losing. Morality is just another name for the narrative describing an underlying, unchosen, survival strategy.

          • Distinguishing between good and evil becomes ever more difficult.

            When there are too many people for the Earth to support, I suppose some people can rationalize killing off some of the world’s population, to try to get the population more in line with the world’s carrying capacity.

            Another approach would be involuntary birth control, to try to get population down, perhaps through a vaccine, ostensibly for another purpose.

            We can’t tell young people, “There is nothing you can study in college that will really be useful to you in the long run. We are running short of materials to make things. Perhaps, if you became a subsistence farmer that would be helpful. But we are not trained to teach you to be a subsistence farmer.” Instead, everyone makes up stories about how this or that major will be helpful.

            What is good and what is evil gets hard to distinguish.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Utopia – exactly this played out with the rebel group insisting depop was evil – how dare you!

              One of the rebels changes sides and accepts that depop is necessary — it is not evil…

              In the final scene he turns out to be Mr Rabbit (2023 is Yr of the Rabbit btw)… and is about to unleash the cannisters with the binary poison.

              Have a look at this key scene in the US version – evil is discussed


              Of course they have to cloak UEP behind depop… they cannot reveal the true intention … it is depop so that’s half true… however it is total depop … as in … extinction … TINA … depop >>> ROF… everyone has to go.

              Which is of course… a good thing… all humans Bad News.

            • JesseJames says:

              Being frugal and living the simple but poor struggling farmers life is not a popular idea. My son was complaining about the high cost of housing, and I said his friends could buy a piece of land with forest on it, buy a $6K portable sawmill, and cut and mill your own boards, and build your own house. It would be a multi-year project and hard work. My idea did not get much appreciation.

              Nah…let GenX just live homeless with all their colored hair and tats and piercings…it is easier.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Another version of Rat Juice – there might be some who refuse the original flavour… but are willing to inject this version … can we break 6B?

        Less starvation

      • hkeithhenson says:

        “before even the preliminary trials are done.”

        Is the UK expecting another wave? Is this different from the most recent booster in the US?

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Doesn’t matter – get to the clinic and inject the Rat Juice. Hopefully you don’t feel dreadfully ill after this one… although CNNBBC says that when you feel like you are dying after a shot … that means it’s working.

          Which is true — poisons are not intended to instil vigour and/or youth

  17. Cheese can cause nightmares says:

    An insightful video about the Northern Ireland council election results. More polarisation, and missteps by the Unionists.

    Spectacular Northern Ireland Election Results

    So how long will Northern Ireland endure? Quite a while yet, I think. As Boris once quipped, “I like Ireland so much, I’m glad there are two of them!”

    Until a Republican consensus overtakes the current Green/Orange (Republican / Unionist) split, I can’t see things changing. But clearly the momentum is on the Republican side, longer term.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      The GFA specifies that 50%+1 is all that is needed, no ‘consensus’ is required.

      It would be a pretty daft idea that either side would have a ‘veto’ in a referendum.

      In any case, GFA, which is international law, specifies otherwise.

      The international consequences for Britain would be dire if it tried to renege on GFA.

      Forget about a USA trade deal. The EU Brexit deal also depends on GFA.

      In any case fat boy Boris is gone with his ‘quips’, and Labour is likely up next.

    • Either the Unionists kill all irish, or vice versa. There can never be a peace.

      • neil says:

        Hello from Northern Ireland.
        You may have noticed the low turn out in our election. Many of us don’t really care either way, as long as there are no troubles.
        At the last count, 34% of schoolchildren in the Irish republic were foreign born or foreign parented, and this proportion was expected to get bigger rapidly. The ethnically Irish and catholic population are likely to be a minority on our island within a generation, given that 1 million of the total indigenous population is ulster Protestant.
        Old certainties are dying. This unionist / nationalist argument is yesterday’s row.
        If there ever is a United ireland, the biggest proportion of the population will not be one of Irish ethnicity.
        We’re going like Fiji, jersey, Luxembourg, without a war, unlike Australia and North America where the indigenous had t he ir country taken from them.

  18. Ted Kaczynski says:

    Peak fossil fuels

    By Josh Gabbatiss, originally published by Carbon Brief
    The new Sky 2050 update involves fossil fuel production and use dropping much sooner and faster. Shell says “oil-and-gas supply peaks during the second half of the 2020s”.

    In the spreadsheet published alongside its new scenarios, the company only provides data for oil-and-gas production in five-year increments.

    However, Carbon Brief has extracted the data from graphics provided in its report, revealing that the peak for both oil and gas production has, in fact, already passed.

    Put another way, there is an immediate end to growth in the production of oil, gas and coal – individually and collectively – in Shell’s pathway for staying below 1.5C.

    In Shell’s older Sky scenarios, oil production had peaked between 2025 and 2030, as shown in the figure below (dashed line). In the new 1.5C scenario, oil production is never higher than it was in 2022 (solid line).

    Output dips and flatlines until 2028 when it starts to drop rapidly – particularly for the European and North American companies operating in non-Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) nations.

    In Sky 2050, OPEC oil producers use revenues from high fossil fuel prices to finance a shift away from oil-and-gas reliance.

    Meanwhile, non-state backed, independent oil companies, such as Shell, take “a cautious approach” and “prefer to generate cash for their investors rather than invest in additional production capacity”. As a result, OPEC takes a larger share of production.

    As for gas, Shell states: “A key characteristic of the Sky 2050 scenario is that the ‘golden age of gas’ comes to an end.” The current trend of increasing demand for liquified natural gas (LNG) is “short-lived” and global demand for gas peaks “by the middle of the 2020s”.

    (In its latest World Energy Outlook, the IEA said the “golden age” of gas had come to an end, regardless of whether or not countries scaled up climate ambition to stay below 1.5C. Shell is pointing to an immediate end to global gas demand growth only within its 1.5C pathway.)

    Carbon Brief’s data extraction reveals that in the new 1.5C pathway growth in gas production peaks just before the Covid-19 pandemic in 2019. This is far earlier than in the previous Sky scenario, where gas extraction continues to expand until around 2035, as shown below.
    In the long term, the new scenario sees oil-and-gas use dropping around two-thirds lower than in the previous Sky 1.5C pathway. However, Shell still sees a significant role for both fossil fuels even in 2100.

    Coal production also peaks in 2022 in the Sky 2050 pathway.

    Shell’s older 1.5C pathway involved considerable coal use out to the end of the century, as shown in the figure below (dashed line). In contrast, the new 1.5C pathway sees demand for the fuel dropping fast and approaching zero by 2100 (solid line).

    This article should interest Gail..lots of graphs

    • Thanks!

      I think that crude oil production has already peaked. Natural gas liquids and natural gas could, in theory, grow a bit more. But I am afraid that the overall peak in oil and natural gas could be even sooner than this set of forecasts suggests. I think it is more out of our hands that what the report suggests, also.

      I agree that biological replacements can’t really be ramped up. It takes too much land.

      • hkeithhenson says:

        Copied from the Extropian chat list

        I researched this question a few years ago, and reached the following conclusions:

        In 2013, Vincent C. Muller and Nick Bostrom surveyed over 500 AI researchers.

        When asked “When is [Artificial General Intelligence] likely to happen?”

        10% of respondents thought it would happen by 2022
        50% of respondents thought it would happen by 2040
        90% of respondents thought it would happen by 2075

        Interestingly, an economic model in 1960 predicted the economy would go hyperbolic towards Infinity in 2027 A.D. ± 5.5 years.

        What is interesting is this data for this model existed back in ancient and medieval times. So an economist in ancient Rome could have predicted this same time frame based on data available then.

        (I wonder if Rome had economists?)

    • Hubbs says:

      Debt had helped forward future FF production to the present. It will now accelerate FF production decline.

    • Ed says:

      Shell comes in line with Gail. Both show a rapid decline in line with LESS.

  19. Carving up the world economy into smaller pieces seems to be what is happening with data, just as with the material transfer of good.

    Nick Clegg, Meta’s president of global affairs, stated:

    “Without the ability to transfer data across borders, the internet risks being carved up into national and regional silos, restricting the global economy and leaving citizens in different countries unable to access many of the shared services we have come to rely on.”

    Today’s action by the EU is the largest-ever fine for a company breaching GDPR.

    Meta is based in Ireland, presumably because of its low tax rate. According to the article,

    They said that Meta’s data transfers didn’t address “the risks to the fundamental rights and freedoms” of Facebook’s European users, resulting in the 1.2 billion euro fine. This amount eclipsed the 746 million euro fine by the EU against Amazon over privacy breaches.

  20. Mirror on the wall says:

    Elections in NI last week were counted over the weekend.

    Sinn Fein has become the largest party of local government for the first time in NI.

    Irish Republican voters outnumbered British Unionist voters for the first time.

    The Unionist vote has declined from a constant 70% from 1920-1960, and from 50% in 2015, to just 40.05% this weekend, the lowest ever.

    The Republican vote has gradually risen to now 44.19%, the highest ever.

    The shift is set to continue as predominantly older Unionist voters are replaced by predominantly younger Republican voters.

    Unionists were structurally better off in NI and they entered the ‘demographic transition’ decades earlier than Republicans.

    Increased longevity and emigration have likely slowed the electoral impact of divergent fertility rates, but it seems likely that the Unionist vote is about to fall off a cliff.

    The parties of the ‘middle ground’ seem to have peaked, and SF has assimilated much of the SDLP vote.

    A border poll may be called whenever it seems likely that a majority of voters would vote for Irish unity, and that seems to be the trajectory in NI.

    Far be it from me to propose that there is any ‘truth’ about the ‘right’ jurisdiction for NI, but the present democratic approach seems congruent with the age.

    The Irish Republic now has higher living standards than the UK, and especially NI, which tends to be a vote swinger.

    The Labour Party has said that it will set out the criteria for a border poll if it wins the next General Election, although its leader Starmer has said that he would campaign for Unionism.

    Why was the 2023 Local Election the Most Seismic NI Election Ever, and How Might Identity Politics Evolve?

    Why is this the most seismic NI election ever?

    Northern Ireland, and its eventual six-county shape, remained part of the UK in 1920 to secure unionist rule in north-east Ireland. Unionist communities in Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan were sacrificed by James Craig and Edward Carson to ensure the greatest possible areal extent of secure unionist rule. For the first time since the franchise was widened in the 1880s, the unionist vote is less than the nationalist vote. The nationalist bloc gained a majority of the vote in both Belfast and Derry for the first time….

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      In other words, why have a chocolate eclair when you could have a choux bun?

      • neil says:

        Ignoring the alliance party, a “soft” unionist party, and the lower turnout in Protestant areas. See my response above.

        • Mirror on the wall says:

          The Alliance does not have a position on a border poll or it would not be an ‘alliance’, and indeed most of its ‘second preference’ votes transfer to Republican parties, SF, SDLP or else to the Greens in the center, not to Unionist parties who get transfers only from each other.

          The Slugger article makes the statistical point that Republican ‘first preference’ votes would still outnumber the Unionist votes if the turnout in Unionist areas had been the same as in Republican areas, and the overall percentage of votes were recalculated on the basis of an even turnout in areas.

          So there is no way out of that one. Republican votes now outnumber Unionist votes, both in practice and accounting for voter turnout in areas. The gap is narrow, but demographics suggest that it will widen. As such it is only a matter of time before a border poll is on the cards.

          But there really is no rush on a border poll, as the shift is in only one direction. The longer the wait, the more certain the outcome. Let SF take wins in both jurisdictions, and then we can take it from there. As the pledge goes, Tiocfaidh ár lá – our day is coming.

    • hkeithhenson says:

      I have made a case that the IRA went out of business because the Irish women cut their birth rate to near replacement, below the growth of the economy. The effect (after a delay) was rising income per capita. This shut off the population support for conflict.

      Why fight if the future looks reasonably bright?

      Unfortunately, it’s not easy to apply other places in the world.

  21. Student says:

    (Reuters and various other from international press)

    Please be prepared to receive another pressure activity on vaccination front.

    WOAH an organization linked to WHO is pressing worldwide institution to vaccinate poultry against bird flu.

    Of course with new vaccines, as the old are not effective anymore..

    And of course to be all prepared to vaccinate humans as second step, please.

    in case use:

    ‘’The One Health High-Level Expert Panel (OHHLEP) was formed in May 2021 to advise FAO, UNEP, WHO and WOAH on One Health issues’’

    ‘better to use mRNA and then move to vaccinate humans, please’

    • The price of eggs is coming back down, so I thought that bird flu was to some extent taking care of itself.

      • hkeithhenson says:

        To some extent it has. Bird flu killed over a billion birds. The other factor is that egg production operations have been taking more care in keeping the hens from wild birds.

        Keeping pathogens out of food production is a difficult task. It may be worth vaccinating the whole wild bird population to hold down this version of influenza. (The government did that to get rabies out of the wild fox population and it worked.)

        • But the rabies vaccine actually prevented rabies. And there are many fewer foxes in the world than birds. Foxes don’t fly from continent to continent, either.

          The mRNA technologies don’t prevent anything, especially in viruses that mutate. They might slightly reduce symptoms. I am not sure what vaccine they are talking about for bird flu. Any vaccine would need to be “sterilizing,” that is, kill the virus, not just allow the bird to pass the symptoms on to other birds, unaware.

          Even at that, keeping the egg laying population from wild birds needs to be very important. There is no way possible to vaccinate any reasonable share of the wild birds, I would think. Usually, viruses mutate toward producing less severe illnesses, if left to mutate on their own. The pandemic goes away, more or less on its own.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Perhaps keith can reinvent himself as a bird vaccinator … it would be as futile as the Space Solar thing so right up his alley!

            I’ve got another job for your keith – during winter months the mountain across the way blocks our sun till around 10am… do you mind coming to NZ and whittling down the mountain with a chisel so we can the sun at 8am?

          • hkeithhenson says:

            It’s not mRNA vaccines but the interaction of disease (or the vaccine) and the immune system that’s the problem. An mRNA vaccine against measles I expect would be as effective and long lasting as the current vaccines.

            A project to vaccinate wild birds would probably use something like the live polio vaccine which would spread among birds and make them immune or at least resistant to bird flu.

            As you point out, it’s a complicated problem.

    • hkeithhenson says:

      “Of course with new vaccines, as the old are not effective anymore..”

      That’s odd. Do you have a reason the old should not be effective?

      ” And of course to be all prepared to vaccinate humans as second step, please.”

      We have been vaccinating humans for flu since the 1950s. Is this something new or different?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        hahahahaha… you are a scientist? an engineer?

        Cuz… cuz in case you weren’t aware the original versions of Covid (flu) no longer exist… they are long gone as the virus has done what virus do – mutate… particularly when you encourage mutation with leaky vaccines.

        Think of it this way – if the flu vaccine actually worked… and you took a flu vaccine targeting a flu variant that existed in 2010… do you think it would protect you against the flu variant(s) that will arrive this coming winter?

        Come on man! Do I have to do all the thinking for you?

  22. Ted Kaczynski says:

    The Elders are busy …when you have it ALL, you want it forever…

    German scientists make a ‘major discovery’ that could slow down the ageing process

    new study from Germany has potentially found the answers to time-old questions: what drives ageing and what can we do to reverse it?

    ….Researchers from the University of Cologne in Germany have not only discovered that gene transcription – the process in which a cell makes an RNA copy of a strand of DNA – becomes faster with age but less precise and more error-prone; they also found that certain processes could help us reverse this decline.

    …This is, so far, the only eureka moment in my life. I mean, this is a type of discovery that you don’t make every other day,” said Dr Andreas Beyer, the lead researcher, calling the findings “a major discovery”.

    “There’s a storm on Twitter. Some colleagues are very excited,” he told Euronews Next

    ……The “machine” – as Beyer calls it – responsible for making the transcription copy of the gene sequences is called Pol II (RNA polymerase II).

    And what his team discovered was that the process of transcription gets faster as we age, and this accelerated transcription causes Pol II to make more mistakes, leading to essentially “bad” copies that can lead to numerous diseases.

    “If Pol II gets too fast, it makes more mistakes, and then the sequence is not identical anymore to the genome sequence. The consequences are similar to what you have when there are mutations in the genome itself,” Beyer said.

    Of course, Eddie you and the rest of the rabble will be given UEP VAX number 2..

    Next time it will be given by force not choice….

    The Elders will be given the serum of forever youth and life

  23. After the Iron Curtain fell, the old landowners who remained wealthy because they had the foresight to buy property outside of their turf returned with vengeance, forcibly evicting residents who lived there for decades. It was brutal but hardly ever reported in the media, who tended to side with the landowners who could invest and place ads when the stations were cash strapped.

    As a result, like what happened in 1814, the old lords did regain about 50% of what they had before 1945, although they still tend to avoid politics which are still dominated by proteges of the communist regimes.

    However they could not return in Russia, because the oligarchs, despite of all their shortcomings, didn’t want their return . There are some isolated incidents of these prominent families re=purchasing their estates with monies brought from abroad, but they are far and between and to now Russia is not giving back these lands to their original owners, and if they can afford to buy it, they have to pay all costs to restore these land to proper conditions.

    When Putin goes away these nobles will try again, again and again. However a lot of papers were burnt during World War 2 and often it is hard to ascertain ownership because more than 100 years have passed.

    A similar situation exists in Cuba, although a lot of them tended to have property in USA , Spain or other Spanish speaking countries and do have resources to recover their lost land, probably in very violent means , when they can.

  24. Kathy Kollwitz, who is famous for getting her son killed in the Great War and grandson killed in World War 2, earlier did a series called the German Peasant War.

    Upon arrival of Protestantism, peasants in the German states, particularly the south, rose up in the banner of new religion since a lot of them were beholden by the bishophrics, which tended to abuse them.

    Luther knew which side of bread was buttered so he condemned the peasants. However, a disciple of Luther named Thomas Muncer (later spelled Muntzer, but contemporary drawings spell him that way) chose to side with the peasants and cut ties with Luther.

    Long story short, for three years the peasants fought hard, but the princes, bishops and landowners could hire the best mercernaries of the day. And they took no prisoners.

    All of the rebels were killed, every single one, and their survivors were divvied up among the mercernaries to be used as they fit. After that Protestantism died in southern Germany and never recovered.

    The feudal order lasted in western Germany till Napoleon, and central and eastern Germany till, to some degree, 1945.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      And then the feudal order was entirely gone, and everyone is over it.

      * Bishopricks

      • Now we have young people working as interns, getting paid not much more than room and board.

        I also am seeing quite a few more people on street corners, with signs, or with carts that seem to be carrying all of their earthly belongings.

  25. Multipolarity means the end of everything, the end of all tech advances, the big project, all these space project beloved by Keith and Dennis L, etc.

    With today’s financial system, whether you like or not, trillions of amount could be raised at will to project all these tech projects. Whether you like or not, the tech progress brought by it cancels out all the evil of the financialized economic system- i t was able to make the earth self actualize and extract its resources to the hilt.

    Without that mankind returns to what it was in 1920.

  26. interesting, new cheery note from”B” again

    • ivanislav says:

      Is that your blog? Incognito? Anyway, good article. USA cannot scale up munitions manufacturing even in 5-7 years. We’re too dysfunctional now to do anything effective. USA loses any conventional war vs China or Russia or both. We’re cooked.

      • Ted Kaczynski says:

        Plus, greedy, corrupt defense contractors, such as, Raytheon are gouging the Government (taxpayers) with outrageous charges….last night 60 minutes Television program exposed how the Defense Department is powerless in dealing with them, since there is no other makers of these advanced systems.

        The Pentagon granted companies unprecedented leeway to monitor themselves. Instead of saving money, Assad said the price of almost everything began to rise.

        In the competitive environment before the companies consolidated, a shoulder-fired stinger missile cost $25,000 in 1991. With Raytheon, Assad’s former employer, now the sole supplier, it costs more than $400,000 to replace each missile sent to Ukraine. Even accounting for inflation and some improvements, that’s a seven-fold increase.

        “For many of these weapons that are being sent over to Ukraine right now, there’s only one supplier. And the companies know it,” Assad said.

        Army negotiators also caught Raytheon making what they called “unacceptable profits” from the Patriot missile defense system by dramatically exaggerating the cost and hours it took to build the radar and ground equipment.

        The company told 60 Minutes it’s working to “equitably resolve” the matter. In 2021, CEO Gregory Hayes informed investors that the company would set aside $290 million for probable liability.

        A Pentagon study released last month found major contractors flush with “cash beyond their needs for operations or investment.” They have tens of billions of excess cash from Pentagon business to hand out to shareholders
        While contract spending is going up, Pentagon oversight is going down because of cuts and attrition. Recently retired auditors Julie Smith and Mark Owen and contracting officer Kathryn Foresman were part of the oversight organizations that were victims of downsizing. They said with less oversight and with Assad gone, the Pentagon is losing the battle to hold down prices.

        “We don’t have another source for a lot of the spares that they provide right now,” Smith said when asked about TransDigm. “They are literally the only game in town in order to make an aircraft fly. So we’re at their mercy.”

        They said it’s not a true capitalistic market, but more of a monopoly. It’s very concerning for Foresman, who said military contractors are the ones holding the power.

    • Hubbs says:

      It will be too costly from an oil/logistical standpoint for any country, whether Russia, China, US, or NATO to project sufficient power to win a war against each other if it requires projection of power across the oceans. IOW, Russia’ s ”projection” of power against a limited UKR at its border will be the only remnant of large scale war possible unless of course, it goes the way of nuclear exchange, which may not make the targeted country worth occupying anyway.

      Now an invasion from our southern border or even from the north, could still be defended against by our paper tiger military as the illegals are mostly civilian, untrained, unarmed.

      But countries instead will face greater internal conflict within their own borders, as resources such as food, energy, costly health care etc start getting rationed. Debt will paralyze any temporizing solution as well.

      I had thought that eventually the US would break up into smaller self governing regions or states, but with wide spread dissemination of illegals, even into small towns throughout the US, even this may not be practical.

      I have therefore wondered whether armed conflict will wind up being waged in smaller towns. We all assume racial/ethnic conflict will emerge in the big cities, but that will be the equivalent of “nuclear” civil war. No one would be left in the cities anyway. Counterintuitively, the struggles may wind up occurring in the small to mid sized communities.

      • Hubbs says:

        Our in the ultimate circular irony, we go back to the roots of our original western civilization as warring Greek City States.

      • the USA will end in mini-states, each with a grudge against its neighbour

        much as Europe was for the last 1000 years or more

        If you think about it—the USA has been a construct of every European nationality, who came to the USA seeking infinite plenty

        Which they found and expanded upon.

        Now that infinity is all used up—so those ex-Europeans are simply reverting to type, revealing their inherent differences—which will result in war again—just like Europe used to be.

        • Ed says:

          Tribes. My people have been in the Hudson River Valley for 6000 years. White man go home.

          • Cromagnon says:

            My people were there just on the dry land continental shelf 30,000 bp…..Solutreans own it all….(please ignore all Sasquatch and Neanderthal claims,…..they are just jibbering riff raff)

    • I agree that that is a very good article.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I don’t agree with this part:

        If one wishes to remain the top petroleum consumer on the planet with a shrinking supply, then one needs to eliminate competition. With European demand destroyed by the combined effects of war, “mysteriously” exploding pipelines, sanctions and high prices, and with the continent committing itself to a permanent slimming diet, the cross hairs move east.

        Strangling any key pillar of BAU (e.g. EU) >>> ROF for all.

        • I am not sure B is exactly right, but it is not too far off.

          This is a section about the US trying to eliminate the EU as an energy consumer. My impression has been that the US has been trying to drive up oil and gas prices in Europe, and perhaps in the US, too.. By doing this, more of the US resources that seem to be available can be extracted. With higher prices, oil and gas companies can make more money and BAU can continue a little while longer.

          One detail is that LNG exports can only be profitable if European natural gas prices are significantly higher than US prices, so this would seem to be a goal as well.

          But I wouldn’t rule out getting rid of Europe as a competitor. If there isn’t enough oil and gas to go around, knocking out a competitor that used nearly all of its energy supplies early would seem to be a good idea.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            So the EU can collapse including all the banks … and the rest of the world will continue to dance?

            If the EU is starved of energy – it will collapse

            • The rest of the world doesn’t seem to me to be very dependent upon the EU. The EUs’s energy resources are very depleted. The EU has become a service economy, but ultimately, there is little need for services in a poorer world. There is a need for commodities.

              Another group (perhaps from Africa or Asia) coming into the land occupied now by the EU might not expect heat in winter. The new group might be happy with several people to a room, and perhaps a little electricity once a day. These new occupiers might be able to extract food more efficiently from the land now occupied by the EU. They might mostly replace the current population.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              What is the turnover of the manufacturing sector in Germany?

              2,096 billion euros was the turnover of companies in the manufacturing sector in 2020. The automotive industry led the way with 459 billion euros.

              What are the largest sectors in Germany?

              Four sectors dominate German industry: the automotive, mechanical engineering, chemical and electrical industry. Global players are Volkswagen, Daimler, BMW (all automotive), BASF, the world’s largest chemical company with around 118,000 employees, and Siemens (electrical). With 1.1 million employees, mechanical engineering is the largest industry in Germany, but it is dominated by SMEs.

              What is the export ratio in the manufacturing sector?

              48.4 percent was the export ratio in the manufacturing sector in 2021. Motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts were Germany’s most important export goods in 2022, generating a total of 244.4 billion euros and accounting for a total share of 15.5 percent of German exports, as in previous years. In this calculation, it is the value of the finished car counts, even though many parts are imported from other countries.


              France UK etc… will also have key industries that cannot be unplugged.

              Good luck replacing all that and even more luck trying to do without … consider a world without German chemical production.

              And what do you do about the likes of Doosh Bank and these other German behemoths when their industries implode due to lack of energy … we are talking Lehman on steroid cocaine meth and heroin… way way way TBTB – or fail.

              We cannot even unplug Africa cuz lots of key resources are pillaged from the continent …

              We don’t call it globalized for nuthin… it is all interconnected… you pull out one pillar (as per Korowizc) and the EU is most certainly a pillar …

              And the house falls down

        • ivanislav says:

          Disagree. There are many examples of national decline for various reasons that result in lower resource consumption by that nation.

          The EU has nothing that the world absolutely needs. In fact, apart from resources, no one does.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            You mean want to check out Germany industrial production … also pray tell what happens when every bank in the EU collapses.

            • ivanislav says:

              Then Europeans are impoverished and all others have cheaper access to resources and limp along as long as possible.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              You are living in a delusional world if you think we can unplug the EU from BAU and not kill BAU.

              I give you .. the great Korowicz …

              V. Financial System-Supply-chain Cross Contagion

              Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world W. B. Yeats The Second Coming

              Something sets off an interrelated Eurozone crisis and banking crisis, a Spanish default say, which spreads panic and fear across other vulnerable Eurozone countries. This sets off a Minsky moment when overleveraged speculators in the banking and shadow banking system are forced to unwind positions into a one-sided (sellers only) market.

              The financial system contagion passes a tipping point where governments and central banks start to lose control and panic drives a (positive feedback) deepening and widening of the impact globally. In our tropic model of the globalised economy, the banking and monetary system keystonehub comes out of its equilibrium range, crosses a tipping point, and is driven away by positive feedbacks to some new state.

              This directly links to another keystone-hub, production flows. Failing banks, fears of currency re-issue, fears of further default, collapse in Letters of Credit, and growing panic directly quickly shut down trade in the most affected countries. As the week progresses factories close, communications are impaired, social stress and government panic increases. After a week almost all businesses are closed, there is a rising risk to critical infrastructure.

              Almost immediately internal trade and imports stops in the most affected countries, and there is impairment in a growing number of other countries. Trade is impaired globally via a credit crunch. This undermines exports from some of the most trade-central countries, with some of the most efficient JIT dependencies in the world. This cuts inputs into the production and trade into countries that were initially weakly affected by direct financial contagion.

              Globally, the spread of trade contagion depends on complexity, centrality, and inventory times and once a critical threshold is passed spreads exponentially until the effect is damped by a large-scale global production collapse (implying another keystone-hub, economies of scale is driven out of equilibrium). Trade contagion and its implications feed back into financial system contagion, helping drive further disintegration. The interacting and mutually destabilising effects of keystone-hubs coming out of equilibrium destroy the equilibrium of the globalised economy initiating a systemic collapse.

              Growing risk displacement in an increasingly vulnerable system is increasing the risk of system failure. Once the financial system contagion crosses a particular threshold the de-stabilisation of the globalised economy will be exceedingly difficult to arrest; this point may be in as little as ten days.

              Once a major system collapse occurs, scale, hysteresis, entropy, loss of critical functions, recursion failure, and resource diversion is likely to ensure that the features associated with the previous dynamic state of the globalised economy can never be recovered.

              For more go to page 56. (or remain in your delusional world eating turnips in buttf789 RussiaSTAN)

              Better still — relieve yourself of ignorance and read the entire doc.


  27. Fast Eddy says:

    Life insurance companies have reported that an overwhelming mortality among 18-49 year olds from unexplained causes has increased by 40%

  28. Fast Eddy says:

    Hmmm … they say the Rat Juice ages you …

    Hope she has cancer

    • Ted Kaczynski says:

      Eddie, people age differently, some age in spurts…five years just envision a baby at birth to age five or ten…
      Remember the human natural life really was meant to be between thirty to forty… we’ve been spoiled with BAU

      • but i’ve enjoyed going way past my useby/sellby date

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Ya but Walter Chesnut has published studies explaining why the Vaxxers are aging … and dying …

        I reiterate – I hope Ellen Degenerate has cancer… I would be pleased

  29. Fast Eddy says:

    Wanna be played and D Moralized at the same time?

    Watch this utter bullshit

    As if

  30. Fast Eddy says:

    So the world was facing total collapse from a horrifying disease… and they did this?

    You are being PLAYED. Yet again.

    Wake the f789 up

    • Kowalainen says:

      Except for the blatant fact that the bird is about 70% water, I’m wondering if the airfoil shape of the wing got something to do with the birds capacity for flying when flapping them up and down? Or it’s just there for the shits and giggles?

      Here’s an experiment; grab a large beam of balsa wood, cover it with feathers similar to a birds wing, and try flapping it up and down. Notice anything peculiar? Does it seem to move effortlessly through the air or give some resistance? Reckon that resistance can be used for… Become airborne? No?

      These conspiracy theorists and simulation imbeciles.
      Just sayin, no hate.

  31. Fast Eddy says:

    Well he certainly looks unfit … could see him dying

    Mail Online (

    World’s sixth best young water-skier ‘dies suddenly’ aged just 18: Micky Geller competed for Canada and was studying at University of Louisiana-Lafayette when he passed away

    Micky Geller, 18, from Carp, Ontario, Canada, who was a freshman at the University of Louisiana-Lafayette and on the sc

  32. Fast Eddy says:

    Come on man … as if…

    This is running parallel to the Biden vs Trump cage match…

    It’s fake. They are playing you

    There is no war – why would there be a war – the world is ending – why fight over nothing?

    And why not throttle back the gas to the EU?

  33. Fast Eddy says:

    Not the same person?

  34. Student says:


    Last G7 meeting, which has been just concluded, made China upset and then also Russia.
    To have the Arab League upset we must probably wait the next meeting.

    (F16 issue)

    (declarations against China)

  35. Fast Eddy says:

    Let’s look at a photo of vax eye damage

    And something on norms hero’s son:

    New York Post (

    Hunter Biden cried poverty but still flew to his child-support hearing on a private jet for at least $55K

    Hunter Biden cried poverty at his child support hearing earlier this month — despite flying to and from the courthouse aboard

  36. Fast Eddy says:

    Everything related to the deposit crisis keeps worsening beneath the hood

    Given the lack of an imminent economic crash risk, bond bears have been back in the driver’s seat. No news is bond bearish news, which in turn is likely to exacerbate the already worsening root cause.

    The higher for longer narrative is back alongside increasing confidence in a prolonged period of positive economic activity growth. Fair enough. This is in our view the correct short-term assessment of the economic damage from the banking crisis.

    The bank walk (Kudos to Jim Bianco for that wording) will allow the economic policy makers, markets, and politicians to sleepwalk into the recession as the underlying fundamental case for a marked credit contraction continues to grow, while the imminent crisis mode fails to appear.

    So, let’s lean back and remain long risk for now? Might be the right bet through May, but we see several imminent triggers for renewed risk aversion in markets by early June.

    See the photo

  37. Fast Eddy says:

    Li et al.: ‘Risk assessment of retinal vascular occlusion after COVID-19 vaccination’; researchers reported that the risk of retinal vascular occlusion significantly increased during the first 2 weeks after vaccination & persisted for 12 weeks. Additionally, individuals with first & second dose of Pfizer & Moderna had significantly increased risk of retinal vascular occlusion 2 years following vaxx

  38. Fast Eddy says:

    Up to half of individuals who contract SARS-CoV-2 develop symptoms of long-COVID approximately three months after initial infection. These symptoms are highly variable, and the mechanisms inducing them are yet to be understood. We compared plasma cytokine levels from individuals with long-COVID to healthy individuals and found that those with long-COVID had 100% reductions in circulating levels of Interferon Gamma (IFNγ) and Interleukin-8 (IL-8).

    Additionally, we found significant reductions in levels of IL-6, IL-2, IL-17, IL-13, and IL-4 in individuals with long-COVID. We propose immune exhaustion as the driver of long-COVID, with the complete absence of IFNγ and IL-8preventing the lungs and other organs from healing after acute infection, and reducing the ability to fight off subsequent infections, both contributing to the myriad of symptoms suffered by those with long-COVID.

    Yes, they found a universal zero, when it comes to circulating levels of Interferon Gamma. That’s AIDS. AIDS is just an abbreviation of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome and this is an acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. If you don’t like that, invent some new term for what HIV does. I’m going to call a spade a spade.

    hahaha… I don’t have AIDS — I feel GRRReat!

  39. Fast Eddy says:

    Could this be hell? Howdie’s book seems to suggest so.

    He writes, “You might say that since its inception, Plato’s Cave has been a cave of Spiritual Warfare” (page 133); and “Granted at times life is beautiful, interesting and interactive, but the foundation on pain and suffering for that is how the energy (loosh) is created for harvest. This place has never been any better, nor will it ever improve.” (page 33).

    • Retired Librarian says:

      This is an interesting link. Her summary of this book (Exit the Cave) is very good. You can listen to early chapters on YouTube.

  40. Fast Eddy says:

    “What if you woke up one morning, say this morning, with the crazy notion that everything you had ever been told was a lie? Everything you were taught in school, from your parents, from religion, and from TV was a form of deception? That all the systems you trusted, that you believed were created for your best interest, were false? A calculated series of lies designed as a type of control mechanism, to keep you and everyone, under the spell of wizards who control this realm? What if you found that even all the areas that seem designed to assist you, such as religion, spirituality or self-help, were all part of the deception as well?”

  41. CTG says:

    Debt Ceiling Negotiations Crumble, McCarthy And Biden To Hold Sunday Call As Impasse Intensifies

    This time round, I have a very strong feeling (I have posted this “feeling” before here a few days ago) that they are going to let it go without resolution and the finger pointing will begin. In this way, no on can blamed on the mess. Actually the timing is quite right as FedNow is coming 1st July.

    • Hubbs says:

      And do these workers get any benefits, or are health care insurance and EBT “ benefits” yet more wealth transfers being pushed onto the tax payers to further enhance the corporations’ bottom line?

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I was hoping that was going to be a video that you made demonstrating how to drain my ankle cyst 🙁

      Please Hubbs… lend a hand

      • may 16

        16 eddies

        did your Gatling gun response system jam after 16 eddy?

      • Hubbs says:

        Here you go Fast Eddie. Of course as a surgeon, I usually only saw people who had failed aspiration /steroid injection, so my bias was towards simple excision, but if not done under a bloodless field, then even incomplete surgical excision may result in higher rate of recurrence. Hence a tourniquet is often a worthwhile consideration to allow thorough visualization of the entire sac. Simple aspiration attempt with a needle still leaves the sac and hence a high rate of recurrence. Tourniquet application can be very uncomfortable and therefore requires some kind of general or regional anesthesia for that pesky sac. One thing leads to another.

        The ganglion has a “root” which extends down to a synovial joint, hence a meticulous excision required to ensure a small section of joint capsule from which the sac develops is included.

        Historically, these cysts were called “Bible cysts” because most of them occurred at the wrist, and people would simply lay their hand down on a table and slam them with a huge bible, thereby splattering/rupturing them. Some times this worked.

        And if I ever make it back to NZ, you can treat me to another Pilatus ski plane landing on top of Cook Glacier for a sip of wine or a cruise in Milford Sound where we can discuss the sad state of affairs in the word.


        • Xabier says:

          In other words, it’s a trip to the licensed Assassins in white coats for you, FE my lad!

          • they will come and collect him

            men in white coats usually do

            • Hubbs says:

              “Two men dressed in white collected me the other day.”

            • ah

              but were they wearing pointy hats?

              might have been Klansmen

              always as well to be able to spot the difference—especially if they want you as guest of honour at a lynching party

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Do I get to go where anna is?

              That could be a lot of fun — I could see Fast settling in nicely to an insane asylum … HE might learn to paint … or arrange flowers… in his spare time when he’s not taunting anna and the other screwballs…

              anna… are you lurking … are you looking forward to spending time (lots of time!) with you buddy FE?

        • Replenish says:

          I have a ganglion cyst on my left wrist from high school tennis and baseball as well as a recent bunion on my left big toe from putting too much pressure on my foot when painting around baseboard or working on concrete floors. Both problems are manageable for me with rest, awareness and change of technique or position in the moment before pain signals start.

          • Replenish says:

            Keith is hanging tough. Norman is keeping you light on your feet. Reante is taking a break. Neil is sharing nicely. You should thank them for their contributions. Give Hoolio a hug.

        • Tim Groves says:

          Of course as a surgeon, I usually only saw people who had failed aspiration /steroid injection

          If Eddy fails aspiration/steroid injection, would you propose to saw him above the ankle or above the knee?

          • lol Tim

            i was onto that one too

            simply great line.

            In eddys case—i would suggest above the shoulders, buts another one liner

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Ya you thought of that first right norm – but you forgot to post it

              It’s kinda like how you regurgitate Mother’s OFW articles … cuz you thought of them before her… but let her have the moment of glory cuz you are that kinda guy.

              Come on man. We see right through you

              norm the self proclaimed worth smith. hahahaha

            • that’s probably why my stuff doesn’t get constantly deleted eddy

          • Fast Eddy says:

            I suspect that will be what happens if I smash it – or attempt to DIY remove it with a scalpel… Gangrene surely must be painful.

            Hopefully UEP arrives sooner than later so I don’t have to keep thinking about this

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Much obliged… much much obliged!!!

          I have had a small one on my wrist for years… and was told that draining it would not likely eliminate the problem — I was at one point concerned that it would impact my ability to Haul Hotties while clubbing …

          You know how it can be … one can have all the best lines in the world .. but end of the day if you have a deformity … or you have that look of Out Back the Dumpster desperation — it can all fall apart before The Close…. so I was really self conscious about the bump on my wrist… so much so that I would wear Bjorn Borg tennis sweat band on my wrist… to cover up the bulge…

          Oddly enough that bulge has receded as I age… but what good is that now that I am no longer a Club Go-er? You tell me — does this sound fair?

          As for the ankle bulge… so far it is not impacting my skating … there is no pain when I crush it into the boot… that’s my main concern … other than Madame Fast says ‘eeeeee uuuuuu’ whenever she happens to see it unsocked…. I think she might be so grossed out that she might leave me for the plumber (never engage a handsome plumber to do work around the house… bad idea at the best of times)…

          Had I know she valued the superficial qualities only … I might has stuck with Doris… even though Doris was a a bit Hello Kitty-ish + was totally off the beat when she attempted to disco dance… (I always would wonder — is she listening to a different song???)

          So here we are … at a cross roads.

          3 options – none of them good – actually 4…

          1. buy a syringe – some alcohol swaps — and try to find some cocaine (or maybe my dentist will give me some of that gel they use to numb the gum before injecting) … and drive the f789er in … piercing the sack…and draining the fluid. I could see myself being willing to do that once a week or so… assuming it will refill… it could become a Sunday ritual — The Piercing of the Sack…. I wonder if M Fast might be interested in participating … she could do the piercing….

          2. buy a scalpel (ha only 15 bucks!) and attempt to remove the cyst sack. Ideally there would be a DIY video somewhere … perhaps the Mayo Clinic or WebMD sites have this? I need to understand what is involved… What are the risks… I wonder if it would be possible to mix the cocaine with saline and inject it into the area to ensure pain elimination …

          3. Smash it with a bible … or perhaps a rubber mallet. I actually might try that … my concern is that if I do that will it go away –will there be a chance of infection … what actually happens to the cyst if I crush it? I don’t have a bible but I have shelves of books – surely one will do. I suppose a hard cover would be best. I could also crush it by tying my skate boot tight and hoping the pressure bursts it… or maybe I just press on it with my thumb and see if it busts…

          4. Do nothing cuz it’s not causing any discomfort and because the end of the world is imminent … (could come tomorrow who knows)… since I have no Rat Juice I get to participate in Global Holodomor … as I am starving I suspect a lump on my ankle will be a low priority….

          On the positive side… if/when the hungry horde arrives at my front gate keen on feasting on human flesh … I will lift up my skirt (I intend to dress like a tranny freak hoping that keeps the mob away … ) and flash my ankle and say — look at this gross lump – it’s a ganglion … if you eat Fast Eddy you will get these lumps all over your face … for I am a cursed Tranny Freak…

          Hopefully they will gasp in horror — EEEEUUUUUU— dude you are so disgusting … then turn on their heels and head for the neighbours (of course I will also leak the info that there are ‘young plumb children in the grey house around the corner’ with no disfiguring lumps on their bodies)

          • lol eddy

            i think i can diagnose your wrist problem, sight unseen

            been overdoing it have we?

            very common side effect among BS artists

          • Replenish says:

            “I was really self conscious about the bump on my wrist… so much so that I would wear Bjorn Borg tennis sweat band on my wrist… to cover up the bulge.”

            I still use my vintage green and white tennis bag with hand grip. Neighbor in his late 60’s says he plays Pickle Ball now since they shut down Hershey racquet club during the pandemic. I’m hoping to play him on our neighborhood court. I have been badly beaten on clay by guys in their 70’s. You don’t get really good at subtle humor and trash talk until you spar with the OG curmudgeons and accept some humility.

  42. Tim Groves says:

    Some Japanese have been protesting against the warmongering going on in Hiroshima of all places.

    But not to worry; the riot police are out in force.

  43. Eeyores Enigma says:

    Its truly amazing. Every time I post a comment I get a long string of comments on how it just has to be that way, nothing could possibly affect the outcome, it was all foreseen since the beginning of humanity, humanity is just bad … always has been, always will been.

    Problem is that there is thousands of examples throughout melinia where humans have not been that way. It is a particularly anglo, western, modern concept to turn all human function into focusing only and exclusively on profit that has set humanity on this path of self destruction.

    There are countless examples of civilizations living and emphasizing balance, equality, sustainability. Any one here ever heard of the concept of “seven generations”? Its not just a brand name for detergents. It was the common understanding of how humans were to act on the planet. Thats not 70 years, thats 7 hundred years and because each generation adopted that truth it was 70000000 years that were being considered when anything was being adopted. But fuck that…..we are all shit and always have been according to you all.

    We only need to burn everything there is because of people like you who state that there is NO alternative. Thats BS! But never mind… you all keep telling yourselves that so you don’t have to do anything. Congradulations!

    • CTG says:

      Problem is that there is thousands of examples throughout melinia where humans have not been that way. It is a particularly anglo, western, modern concept to turn all human function into focusing only and exclusively on profit that has set humanity on this path of self destruction.

      I have a question for you – were you there to see what happened thousands of yours ago or read from books ?

      Question 2 – can you trust what you read?

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “There are countless examples of civilizations living and emphasizing balance, equality, sustainability.”

      and yet, did even one of these survive?

      I mean, let’s see the big list.

      que sera sera.

      • Jan says:

        Civilisations have crashed. But mankind has survived. You are here!

        • certainly civilisations have crashed in the past

          but no previous civilisation has possessed the means to wipe out the entire species of humankind

          thats why its different this time

        • Fast Eddy says:

          those civilizations did not ruin their soil with petro chemicals. starvation awaits anyone who survives UEP – and of course spent fuel ponds

    • ivanislav says:

      Anyone who breaks the 7-generations/sustainability oath gets an immediate advantage over the others, which is why it never works in practice.

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        oh the humanity!

      • Replenish says:

        Burlington, VT home to the company “Seventh Generation” is one of the progressive capitals of the US. City leaders under pressure from do somethings defunded the police and they are now experiencing homeless camps in public areas and increases in vagrancy, petty crime and drug abuse. “Do Something” was a slogan from the 90’s promoting progress over perceived social injustice and inequality to improve on time-tested ways of living. Burlington city claims 100% renewable energy and Bernie Sanders sightings are common. Now small businesses are having to form vigilante groups to build cases against petty criminals since the cops basically said they don’t have time for that.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Mass D. Preparation for UEP.

          You want to make people welcome extinction before you spring it on them – that way they don’t cause any trouble… the last thing anyone wants is violence

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Come on man! That’s why this degenerate species was put on the Earth by the creators of the virtual reality

      We are here to burn and release carbon – and we’ve done an outstanding job… every since that first ape lit the first fire… it put us on the path to epic burning of fossil fuels… huge beautiful billowing clouds of carbon …

      The trees are breathing it in … ahhhhhhhh go the trees… thank you for that fresh carbon… we were running low!!!

      And now … the degenerate albeit useful species… is about to go extinct

      Thanks for coming says the tree outside my window … now f789 off willya

      • Cromagnon says:

        Lol…. That’s all I have to add…

        A stupendous job we have done,…. Utterly without parallel….. fantastic……the reality engine is pleased.

        Ok,…. I had a bit to add.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          I know!

          Let’s polish this total f789ing disaster off by …. wait for it….

          Firing thousands of nuclear missiles at every major city on the planet in a massive demonstration of utter total epic unparalleled MOREONIC MENTALLY ILL STEWPIDITY…

          Then unleash the contents of 4000 spent fuel ponds — another epic display of our fabulous ingenuity — decades of piling up this toxic shit — with ZERO plan to safely dispose of it in the long term. Duh on F789ing Steroids

          hahaha… dummmbest most stewpid animal that has ever infected the planet.

          Let’s go down .. in a hellish blaze of disgrace!! Let’s see if we can kill everything …

          • Kowalainen says:

            “The planet will be here for a long, long, LONG time after we’re gone, and it will heal itself, it will cleanse itself, ’cause that’s what it does. It’s a self-correcting system. The air and the water will recover, the earth will be renewed”
            — George Carlin

            “Hope is for suckers”
            — Alan Watts

            Yes indeed, Hypers™ flocking to their behavioral sinks – if it wasn’t for the dried squirrel skull necklaces, horses and cows to the Teslas, Living Large, instas and fb social “credit” scores, endless therapy sessions (meetings, social interaction, etc) projecting “success”, which is nothing more than seeking comfort for their insecurities from the horrors of solitude being haunted by their pathetic ineptitude.

            You see, the Rapacious Primate® will do just about anything to feel good about themselves, yes indeed from amateur hour eugenics projects (holocausts) to aggressive marketing of incompetently and amateurishly cooked “vaccines”, to envy and ultimately aggression.

            Listen carefully to nature around you Fast; can you hear it?

            The whispers about a failed species…

            Yes, of this, however not for this world anymore, apart from observing its ultimate end game:

            Aand it’s all GONE!


      • Curt says:

        That actually is John Michael Greer’s guess – nature wants humanity to free the stored carbon from the earth to make our climate warmer.

        If we may believe the NASA chart estimation of global average mean temperature, then 10,000 years ago was the lowest temperature globally since BEFORE the age of dinosaurs, and with quite a distance to the mean temperature of the last 200m years.

        Dinosaur decline was accompanied with a decline in temperature, but our proverbial ancestry 200,000 years ago still lived in a relatively warm climate.

        Very curious if it is true.

        Ugo Bardi assumes that earths ecology creates a dynamic swing balance between cold, arid steppe and warm humid forests.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “We only need to burn everything there is because of people like you who state that there is NO alternative.”

      I bet you use just about as much energy resources as the rest of us.

      I’m open to hearing otherwise.

      but meanwhile…

      burn burn burn the bAU candle at both ends tonight, baby!

    • drb753 says:

      It’s not you, Eyeore. It’s the rest of us.

    • Jan says:

      Agreed, thank you!

    • Bobby says:

      It’s very basic for this planet. Life is not possible without preexisting order.
      At the extreme end of this continuum, the preexisting order that made it possible for humans, yet alone our current civilisation to exist is immense.

      Eddy points to the petrified trees. Combined with Sunlight, it was the trees, the algae, bacteria and fungus that made it all possible. They’re our ancestors, brothers and sisters, They’re all highly culpable for our existence and each of them will chew on us at some point if they can, unless we manage to burn first, and even then there is no escaping the carbon cycle.
      How is it we forget we‘re part of it.

      Why do you think we exist? Do you feel grateful for your life?
      Sometimes feel thankful, other times apathy, contempt? Should you consider thanking the slime moulds, or The Muddy Waters from which you arose.

      Life is suffering, overall during a lifetime, this suffering inevitably increases gradually and naturally for every living thing, in each life, until it can no longer be born, this represents the point of actual death.

      Death is extremely painful. I have experienced it twice so far. Death is also, (if somehow survived) transformative. Mostly Life is given then eventually taken. (it is very rear that is ever given back again).

      Yet we are reborn through each struggle or challenge successfully faced until we reach our Hayflick limit or untimely end.

      We each die and are reborn many times throughout our lives. Don’t be surprised I say you are reborn many times throughout this life. Life is really a death. In the end we forget everything. Is it not nice, to finally reach cessation?

      We destroy because we rebel against the process subconsciously and this manifests in our collective action, which are obviously destructive.

      Party this is because we cannot control others completely, we can’t reverse entropy, or ever eliminate our own suffering completely. We also can’t get past the little self of desires that avoids suffering and because of that very avoidance we tend to actualise and perpetuate our personal and collective suffering even more, yet think ourselves wise and seperate from these very laws.

      Obliteration and destruction, particularly deliberate destruction are both a sane attempt at release and transformation, particularly when the suffering casing this behaviour is (or seems) meaningless. Physical, Social or Psychic pain can be all equally meaningless and pointless. The experience is even worse when deliberately or cruelly inflicted by others.

      In this horrific context is it even possible to learn from or in some insane way embrace, even enjoy your suffering’ It is a great teacher and a great curse. In this life, for most; it will be the last thing you know as you cross over.

      Consider this final point, pun intended; suffering (and all of life suffers and travails) is built into creating order.

      Running away, to enjoy something nice seems like a sane response.
      In doing so you’re very likely creating disorder, think about it.
      Blame the trees or try sitting under one a while, while you can.

      Remember you are an ape, and you are an idiot.

    • Tim Groves says:

      So Eeyores, you’ve come to shame us?

      Are you unleashing your inner Greta to scold us for stealing your dreams and your childhood with our empty words?

      There are countless examples of civilizations living and emphasizing balance, equality, sustainability.

      I can’t think of any such civilizations off hand.

      Perhaps if you could name three of them, we could discuss this.

      Just three civilizations that lived and emphasized balance, equality, sustainability.

      Perhaps we could also discuss whether they are still around and whether it would be practical for our civilization to try to emulate them?


      only last night i was watching a tv doc about the nazca people of south america

      they cut all their trees down in the name of ”progress”–the forest was their ultimate ‘energy resource” 1500 or so years ago

      with the forest gone—they vanished too

      simple lesson

      nobody every learns it

      • Curt says:

        And the chaco mesa culture termed “anasazi”, the same case is visible from the archeological records: increasing environmental degradation, agriculture being imposed on less arable lands in the late stage, big buildings contructed using the existing trees…

        it is one of the examples Tainter gave in 1988 (was it?).

  44. moss says:

    UN toad in chief, gives his batracian image a PR makeover×531/266466.jpg?v=1680801302

    This was interesting – at the G7 Hiroshima the Indonesian and Brazilian presidents were invited as guests along with the Indian PM, two of them key BRICS. Indonesia is the world’s fourth most populous nation.
    Also there, UN’s Guterres said Sunday at his press conference afterwards
    “that it was time to reform both the Security Council and Bretton Woods to align with the ‘realities of today’s world.’
    “The wealthy G7’s economic clout has also shrunk in the past 30 years, accounting for 29.9% of global GDP in 2023 compared to 50.7% in 1980, according to the IMF.
    “‘We will see now what is the impact of the discussions that were held here in Hiroshima,’ Guterres said. ‘The G7 members were able to discuss with some of the most important emerging economies in the world.'”

    He’s right; the impact (if any) of the arm-twisting will be something to behold. Being as biased as he is one is left wondering what changes to the long deceased Bretton Woods (IMF/WB?) and Security Council he was pushing. If it comes from the usual suspects, will it be their classic too little; too late …

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