Presentations/Podcasts

The following is a list of recent presentations and podcasts up through 2015. I have moved the later presentations to a 2016-2017 sheet. See the bottom part of my PDFs of Posts listing for a PDFs of presentations, including recent ones.

Interview with Jim Kunstler about my views on energy and the economy (40 minutes) published November 4:

https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/kunstlercast_271.mp3?_=1

Presentation to Space Solar section of 2015 IEE International Conference on Wireless for Space and Extreme Environments – Orlando, Florida, Dec. 15, 2015 Energy Economics Outlook

Related post: We are at Peak Oil now; we need very low-cost energy to fix it

Presentation to Investor Group in San Francisco, Oct. 31, 2015: Oops! The economy depends on an energy-related debt bubble

Related post: Oops! Low oil prices are related to a debt bubble

Presentation to Indiana Energy Conference, Oct. 15, 2015: Our Electricity Crisis: Getting the Diagnosis Right

Related post: Our Electricity Problem: Getting the Diagnosis Correct

Doomstead Diner Discussions on TSHTF- Three Recordings on Aug. 23, 2015.  These are the up on Doomstead Diner:

Energy Discussion (Part 1), with Gail Tverberg, Nicole Fosse, Steve Ludlum, Tom Lewis, Norman Pagett, Ugo Bardi, Reverse Engineer, and Monsta.

Audio Version  of  Energy Discussion also available:

Collapse Cafe 8/23/2015: Part 1 Energy by Doomstead Diner

Economics and China Discussion (Part 2)

Renewables and What’s Ahead (Last part, numbered Part 4, no part 3)

Doomstead Diner Discussion on Greece, with Reverse Engineer, Ugo Bardi, Steve Ludlum – July 5, 2015

Doomstead Diner Interview by Reverse Engineer with Gail Tverberg and Steve Ludlum about China, Migration, Resource Depletion, and Oil Prices – May 3, 2015

Sound only version (mp3)

https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/gail-tverberg_-steve-ludlum_-re-collapse-cafe-5_3_2015.mp3?_=2

Doomstead Diner Audio Interview of Gail by Reverse Engineer on China Visit – April 12, 2015

https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/gail-china.mp3?_=3

Videos of Presentations Given at China University of Petroleum, Beijing, March 2015

These are the MP4 versions of the talks. The talks have been edited to remove questions from the floor, and discussion about these questions, partly because the single microphone used for recording did not pick up these conversations well. Also, much of this discussion was in Chinese, because the students often were not confident of their ability to speak in English.

First Topic – Overview of Energy Modeling Problem

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Second Topic – Importance of Energy

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Third Topic – Overview of a Networked Economy

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Fourth Topic – Economic Growth and Diminishing Returns

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Fifth Topic – Government Costs and Debt

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Sixth Topic – Competition and Resource Exhaustion

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Seventh Topic – Twelve Principles of Energy and the Economy (Review)

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Eighth Topic – Renewable Energy

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PDFs of Presentations Given at China University of Petroleum, Beijing, March 2015

1. Overview of Energy Modeling Problem

2 Importance of Energy

3 Overview of a Networked Economy

4 Economic Growth – Diminishing Returns

5 Government costs and debt

6. Competition and Resource Exhaustion

7. Twelve Principles of Energy and the Economy

8. Renewable Energy

Video Giving Overview of My 2015 March-April Visit to China

I started my visit by teaching a two-week course at China University of Petroleum, Beijing. Next, I did some sightseeing in Inner Mongolia, including visiting the Genghis Khan museum and the city of Ordos. Later, I visited Daqing oil field and city (also called “Daqing”), and then took a train to the declining industrial city of Haerbin. Finally, I visited three businesses manufacturing and selling electrical equipment in the city of Hangzhou near Shanghai to find out how the poor economy was affecting their business. The company selling the largest scale electrical equipment, often to international customers, was most affected. The company selling relatively small equipment used inside residential and small commercial buildings in China was affected least. The company manufacturing mid-sized equipment was moderately affected.

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Readings of some of my posts, by Timothy Dicks – Jan. 26, 2015

These are available as you tube videos with copies of my charts and other images, and also as podcasts. The You-Tube videos are

Ten Reasons Why a Severe Drop in Oil Prices is a Problem – Video recording

Low Oil Prices – Sign of a debt Bubble Collapse, Leading to the End of Oil Supply – Video Recording

Oil and the Economy: Where are We Headed in 2015-2016? – Video Recording

Ten Reasons Why High Oil Prices are a Problem – Video Recording

Twelve Reasons Why Globalization is a Huge Problem – Video Recording

A New Theory of Energy and the Economy – Part 2 – Charts  Showing the Link Between Energy and the Economy – Video Recording

A New Theory of Energy and the Economy – Part 3 – The Problem of Debt as We Reach Oil Limits

This is a link to a file with the podcast version of the above posts–Our Finite World

Audio Interview with Chris Martenson on Peak Prosperity –  Jan. 17, 2015

Write up on Peak Prosperity of Interview

Doomstead Diner Chrystal Ball 2015 with several others on Jan, 4, 2015.

Source; Chrystal Ball 2015

Newsmax TV Interview with Ed Berliner Regarding US-China Climate Accord on Nov. 12, 2014.

This is a link to a write-up of the interview, as well as to the five minute video (starting with a clip of Obama). I could not figure out how to embed the interview directly.

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsmax-Tv/China-US-climate/2014/11/12/id/606990/

Doomstead Diner Discussion regarding low oil prices, with Ugo Bardi, Steve Ludlum (Steve from Virginia) and Gail Tverberg, November 9, 2014.

Source: Doomstead Diner

Presentation at UNED Energy Conference in Barbastro, Spain, October 10, 2014 

Energy and the Economy: Twelve Basic Principles in a Finite World

Doomstead Diner Anniversary Podcast with Ugo Bardi and Gail Tverberg June 15, 2014.

Source: Doomstead Diner Collapse Cafe

Presentation at the Age of Limits Conference in Artemis PA on May 25, 2014.

Converging Crises – May 25, 2014.

Presentation at the International Congress of Actuaries meeting in Washington, D. C., April 4, 2014.

The Case for Near Term Resource Limits

Interview by Chris Martenson on PeakProsperity.com, aired Dec. 7. Title: The Shale Oil Boom is More “Mirage” than “Miracle.”

IEEE International Conference on Wireless for Space and Extreme Environments (WiSEE) Space Solar Power Workshop in Baltimore, Maryland, Nov. 8, 2013

Energy Economics Motivating Space Solar Power

Presentation at Casualty Actuarial Society Annual Meeting in Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nov. 5 and 6 (Given twice)

Oil limits impact on the economy and insurers

Presentation at Casualty Actuarial Society In Focus: Elephants in the Room Conference, September 30, 2013, Chicago

Tverberg_Oil supply limits may lead to severe recession

Limits to Growth Video Interview – September 29, 2013

Interviewer: Monsta and Roger Ebert of Doomstead Diner

Ugo Bardi, George Mobus, and David Korowicz also interviewed

Syria Interview Video – September 16, 2013

Interviewer: Monsta and Roger Ebert of Doomstead Diner
Brian Davey of Feasta also Interviewed
Also available at Collapse Cafe

Zurich American – Meeting of Company Actuaries – August 21, 2013

Oil limits, the Economy and Insurance

Credit and Energy Interview Parts 1 & 2 – June 25, 2013

Interviewer: Monsta and Ralph Emerson of Doomstead Diner
Source: Doomstead Diner – Podcast: Gail Tverberg- Credit and Energy

Fifth Biophysical Economics Conference – June 10, 2013 – University of Vermont 

Presentation: How High and Rising Oil Prices Can Lead to Limits to Growth

An MP3 recorded by Justin Richie of extraenvironmentalist.com is provided below (Many thanks!):

The conclusion I reach is that overall, we seem to be close to financial collapse. Thus, the “space” for declining future Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI) is virtually zero. To me, this means that we now need to be looking from ways to raise EROI, rather than  assuming that we can keep adding new low EROI  energy production to the system, without adverse consequences.

Age of Limits Conference – May 25 and 26, 2013 – Artemis, Pennsylvania

Presentation 1: Collapse 101

Podcast related to Collapse 101:

Presentation 2: Energy, Debt, and Financial Collapse

Podcast related to Energy, Debt, and Financial Collapse:

Thanks to Doomstead Diner Blog for making these recordings.

Electric Power Conference – 2013 – May 15, 2013 – Chicago, Illinois

Presentation: Energy Economics Relating to Space Solar Power

A related, somewhat longer presentation was given to the Georgia Institute of Technology AIAA/ ASM Group, March 19, 2013.

Presentation: Energy Economics Motivating Space Solar Power Development

A related post on Our Finite World is Our Energy Predicament in Charts

Atlanta Beyond Oil – November 14, 2102 – Atlanta, Georgia

Presentation: Low Energy Approaches in India China and Russia

Advances in Energy Studies Conference – Oct. 26, 2012 – Mumbai, India

Presentation: Financial Issues Affecting Energy Security.presentation

My paper, also called “Financial Issues Affecting Energy Security,” is being published in a volume called Energy Security and Development by Cambridge Scholars Publishing, UK.

A Presentation from 2011, Given to Quite a Few Groups

Presentation: Energy and the Economy – Bumping against the Growth Ceiling

This is the related Our Finite World post: Oil Limits, Recession, and Bumping Against the Growth Ceiling0

36 Responses to Presentations/Podcasts

  1. I want to pass along some very important news that everyone needs to hear!

    In December of 2017, Donald Trump made history by recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Why is this big news? Because by this the Jewish people of Israel are now able to press forward in bringing about the Third Temple prophesied in the Bible.

    Jewish Rabbis have publicly announced that their Messiah will be revealed in the coming years who will be a leader and spiritual guide to all nations, gathering all religions under the worship of one God.

    Biblical prophecy tells us that this Jewish Messiah who will take the stage will be the antichrist “who opposes and exalts himself above all that is called God or that is worshiped, so that he sits as God in the temple of God, showing himself that he is God” (2 Thessalonians 2:4). For a time he will bring about a false peace, but “Therefore when you see the ‘abomination of desolation,’ spoken of by Daniel the prophet, standing in the holy place (Matthew 24:15)…then there will be great tribulation, such as has not been since the beginning of the world until this time, no, nor ever shall be” (Matthew 24:21).

    More importantly, the power that runs the world wants to put a RFID microchip in our body making us total slaves to them. This chip matches perfectly with the Mark of the Beast in the Bible, more specifically in Revelation 13:16-18:

    “He causes all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and slave, to receive a mark on their right hand or on their foreheads, and that no one may buy or sell except one who has the mark or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.

    Here is wisdom. Let him who has understanding calculate the number of the beast, for it is the number of a man: His number is 666.”

    Referring to the last days, this could only be speaking of a cashless society, which we have yet to see, but are heading towards. Otherwise, we could still buy or sell without the mark amongst others if physical money was still currency. This Mark couldn’t be spiritual because the word references two different physical locations. If it was spiritual it would just say in the forehead. RFID microchip implant technology will be the future of a one world cashless society containing digital currency. It will be implanted in the right-hand or the forehead, and we cannot buy or sell without it. Revelation 13:11-18 tells us that a false prophet will arise on the world scene doing miracles before men, deceiving them to receive this Mark. Do not be deceived! We must grow strong in Jesus. AT ALL COSTS, DO NOT TAKE IT!

    “Then a third angel followed them, saying with a loud voice, “If anyone worships the beast and his image, and receives his mark on his forehead or on his hand, he himself shall also drink of the wine of the wrath of God, which is poured out full strength into the cup of His indignation. He shall be tormented with fire and brimstone in the presence of the holy angels and in the presence of the Lamb. And the smoke of their torment ascends forever and ever; and they have no rest day or night, who worship the beast and his image, and whoever receives the mark of his name” (Revelation 14:9-11).

    People have been saying the end is coming for many years, but we needed two key things. One, the Third Temple, and two, the technology for a cashless society to fulfill the prophecy of the Mark of the Beast.

    Visit http://WWW.BIBLEFREEDOM.COM to see proof for these things and why the Bible truly is the word of God!

    If you haven’t already, it is time to seek God with all your heart. Jesus loves you more than you could imagine. He wants to have a relationship with you and redeem you from your sins. Turn to Him and repent while there is still hope! This is forever…God bless!

    “EITHER HUMAN INTELLIGENCE ULTIMATELY OWES ITS ORIGIN TO MINDLESS MATTER OR THERE IS A CREATOR…” – JOHN LENNOX

    We all know God exists. Why? Because without Him, we couldn’t prove anything at all. Do we live our lives as if we cannot know anything? No. So why is God necessary? In order to know anything for certain, you would have to know everything, or have revelation from somebody who does. Who is capable of knowing everything? God. So to know anything, you would have to be God, or know God.

    A worldview without God cannot account for the uniformity and intelligibility of nature. And why is it that we can even reason that God is the best explanation for this if there is no God? We are given reason to know or reject God, but never to know that He does not exist.

    It has been calculated by Roger Penrose that the odds of the initial conditions for the big bang to produce the universe that we see to be a number so big, that we could put a zero on every particle in the universe, and even that would not be enough to use every zero. What are the odds that God created the universe? Odds are no such thing. Who of you would gamble your life on one coin flip?

    Is there evidence that the Bible is the truth? Yes. Did you know that the creation accounts listed in the book of Genesis are not only all correct, but are also in the correct chronological order? That the Bible doesn’t say the Earth was formed in six 24-hour days but rather six long but finite periods of time? That the Bible makes 10 times more creation claims than all major “holy” books combined with no contradictions, while these other books have errors in them? The Bible stood alone by concurring with the big bang saying, “In the beginning God created the heaven and the earth” (Genesis 1:1); and says our universe is expanding, thousands of years before scientists discovered these things. Watch a potential life-changing video on the front page of http://WWW.BIBLEFREEDOM.COM with Astronomer(PhD) Hugh Ross explaining all these facts based on published scientific data. He has authored many books, backed even by atheist scientists.

    Jesus came to pay a debt that we could not; to be our legal justifier to reconcile us back to a Holy God; only if we are willing to receive Him: “For the wages of sin is death…” (Romans 6:23).

    God so loved the world that He gave us His only begotten son, so that whoever believes in Him, through faith, shall not perish, but have everlasting life. Jesus says if we wish to enter into life to keep the commands! The two greatest commands are to love God with all your heart, soul, strength, and mind; and your neighbor as yourself. All the law hang on these commands. We must be born of and lead by the Holy Spirit, to be called children of God, to inherit the kingdom. If we are willing to humble ourselves in prayer to Jesus, to confess and forsake our sins, He is willing to give the Holy Spirit to those who keep asking of Him; giving us a new heart, leading us into all truth!

    Jesus came to free us from the bondage of sin. The everlasting fire was prepared for the devil and his angels due to disobedience to God’s law. If we do the same, what makes us any different than the devil? Jesus says unless we repent, we shall perish. For sin is the transgression of the law. We must walk in the Spirit so we may not fulfill the lusts of the flesh, being hatred, fornication, drunkenness and the like. Whoever practices such things will not inherit the kingdom (Galatians 5:16-26). If we sin, we may come before Jesus to ask for forgiveness (1 John 2:1-2). Evil thoughts are not sins, but rather temptations. It is not until these thoughts conceive and give birth by our own desires that they become sin (James 1:12-15). When we sin, we become in the likeness of the devil’s image, for he who sins is of the devil (1 John 3:8); but if we obey Jesus, in the image of God. For without holiness, we shall not see the Lord (Hebrews 12:14).

    The oldest religion in the world is holiness through faith (James 1:27). What religion did Adam and Eve follow before the fall? Jesus, Who became the last Adam, what religion does He follow? Is He not holy? He never told us to follow the rituals and traditions of man but to take up our cross and follow Him (Luke 9:23). There are many false doctrines being taught leading people astray. This is why we need the Holy Spirit for discernment. Unlike religion, holiness cannot be created. It is given to us from above by the baptism of the Spirit. Jesus is more than a religion; He is about having a personal relationship with the Father. Start by reading the Gospel of Matthew, to hear the words of God, to know His character and commandments. Follow and obey Jesus, for He is the way, the truth, and the life!

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I am posting this, even though I am sure most people will find it objectionable, and I don’t really believe it myself.

      We have a problem today with having a new religion of “He who dies with the most toys wins.” Contributing to green causes seems to be a huge virtue. We can supposedly save the world’s ecosystems by throwing money and resources at the problems, while at the same time giving up fossil fuel use. The high priests of this new religion are those who manipulate interest rates.

      There has to be something different, even if it isn’t as extreme as that this person is claiming. Looking out only for oneself is not really very helpful, either in the long run or the short run. Relationships with others are terribly important, too, for example. I do not see that “sin” is a terribly helpful idea, apart from looking at problems from the point of view of others as well as from a person’s own point of view. If resources become more inadequate, “sin” will almost certainly increase, because if there is not enough to go around, people will fight over what is available.

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  3. richard says:

    I had a look at the Doomstead Diner August 23 2015. There are some things said that contradict other things. For example 12VDC will work for one house, but it is near impossible to share or network. The big problem of course is surviving the collapse, and that will probably need either a resource rich starting point, or a lot of luck. I may follow up some of the practical stuff with RE.

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  14. Pingback: Gail Tverberg: Energy Products – Return on Investment is Already Too Low » Plan B Economics

  15. Gail, not sure if you are affiliated with the following link, but it has the exact same photo of trees at top as yours. http://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2014/01/08/wow-its-cold-out-there/

    Deja vu!

  16. Thanks Gail. Sure glad you’re around to help out with some of this financial stuff which can get complicated, but probably the simple thing to remember is what you stated in the final paragraph above; “Debt seems to be the magical approach everyone uses to make fossil fuels affordable to their populations.”

    Very interesting first hand info. on China as well. I didn’t know of the mortgage program. That’s one way to fill the vacancies and I suppose we’ll just have to see if they are employed long enough to help pay down the tab on China’s debt. But nice to hear they are experiencing what are for many of them new luxuries, most of us in the West take for granted. China’s trying to leap ahead so fast it seems quite dangerous, especially as oil gets pricier to extract.

  17. Gail, you replied to one of my post’s regarding China QE (which I got from Zero Hedge), in which you were certain China was not engaged in QE. Here’s a current link below to a posted article in which Zero Hedge claims China is now tapering. See below:

    “China, very surprisingly, is also tapering concurrently is finally being appreciated as is the fact that despite all talk of preparedness, developing economies were hardly left unscathed following yesterday’s development.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/
    ‘Complete Recap Of Overnight’s Volatile Markets’

    Here’s a link to that article I had previously read on Zero Hedge about China QE, but it actually refers to huge increases in their banks liquidity, so maybe that is something else?

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-25/chart-day-how-chinas-stunning-15-trillion-new-liquidity-blew-bernankes-qe-out-water

    If they are not employing QE, then how are they able to increase bank liquidity by such an incredibly huge amount?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The way I am reading this, Zero Hedge is using QE in a broader sense. It seems to be comparing real credit creation in China to the QE the US and some other countries are doing. Notice this sentence,

      But more importantly, as with all communicating vessels, global liquidity is now in a constant state of laminar flow – out of central banks: either unadulterated as in the US, Japan, Europe and the UK, or implicit, when Chinese government-backstopped banks create nearly $4 trillion in loans every year. If one issuer of liquidity “tapers”, others have to step in. Indeed, as we suggested a few weeks ago, any possibility of a Fed taper would likely involve incremental QE by the Bank of Japan, and vice versa.(Emphasis added.)

      I think that what ZeroHedge is saying is that the US and other parts of the world are not having real increases in debt, so have been “simulating” an increase in debt with QE, only it isn’t really getting out into the economy. China, on the other hand, has been adding an amazing amount of real debt–about $4 trillion a year. He seems to be suggesting that if one country cuts back, another country had to make up for the shortfall.

      I visited China in 2011 and was astounded by all of the new buildings that were being put up. All of this building was financed by debt. Prior to the building boom, families had lived in housing provided by their employers, as part of their compensation. This housing generally had shared out-house type bathroom facilities, for something like eight families together. In the new program, families are being given mortgages for the first time on condos in high rise buildings. One big draw is indoor bathrooms. The condos also have electricity–I am not sure if all of the earlier homes did–and even the opportunity for air conditioners, if people want to buy them. If growth keeps going indefinitely, these debts can be repaid. Otherwise, these debts may very well be a problem. The amount of debt relative to income was quite high, especially in places like Beijing. People were counting on rising condo prices to bail them out of financial problems. If housing prices drop, there will be a problem.

      Debt seems to be the magical approach everyone uses to make fossil fuels affordable to their populations. That approach works when there is cheap-to-extract fossil fuel (like coal in China) available. But once growth slows down and stops, debt tends to contract, rather than increase. The Federal Reserve is trying to counter-act this contraction with QE. It is holding interest rates down, but it is not leading to more debt by consumers.

  18. “If we have today only 14% more net energy available than in 2000 to power the world economy, there is no doubt that global growth is now hitting the “energy wall” because there is now only a very limited supply of available energy to power any potential new material economic activity…”

    Really well put. I think this is why in my opinion we are in end game via QE at least until some major transition can occur to a much lower powered new economy.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The lack of energy growth is exactly the problem. It is behind young people not having good jobs, and it will make it impossible to unwind QE.

  19. JB says:

    A key element that needs to be taken in consideration in the 2013 International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook (WEO) is the key statement that the oil industry capital expenditure has risen by nearly 180% since 2000 but with the global oil supply (adjusted for energy content) rising only by 14%.

    This is the clear sign of a rapidly declining Energy Return Over Energy Invested (EROEI)…

    In other words oil economics have become completely dislocated from historic norms since 2000 (and especially since 2005) and the industry is now desperately investing at exponentially higher rates to gain increasingly smaller new amounts of net energy. One should recognize that this is a situation clearly unsustainable over a long period of time…

    What is the impact of this situation on future economic growth, which most politicians are still expecting will save the day by reducing the relative size of the current high debt (in particular sovereign debt) with respect to GDP:

    1) If the oil industry is now sucking from the available capital pool 180% more funds to produce only slightly more net energy than in 2000, the amount of capital available to fund other projects is considerably reduced;

    2) If we have today only 14% more net energy available than in 2000 to power the world economy, there is no doubt that global growth is now hitting the “energy wall” because there is now only a very limited supply of available energy to power any potential new material economic activity… No wonder that most of the reported economic growth since 2000 was related to financial sector “paper” gains mostly derived from speculative activities, in particular on the OTC derivatives market (the largest casino on Earth)… With the currently high depletion rates needing to be constantly offset, there was simply almost no additional net energy available to power any potential new material project ! One wonders what will happen with the even higher tight oil & shale gas depletion rates when that unconventional production represents a significant part of the overall oil & gas production mix…

    Of course this macroeconomic picture varies on a country by country basis and even on a region by region basis depending on the local net energy availability situation and on the local marginal cost of that energy.

    Charles Hall’s important work – as described in his seminal “Energy and the Wealth of Nations” – concludes that EROEI mathematics will make it very difficult for a complex high-tech society to survive when its average EROEI falls below 11/1…

    Hence, given that the future survivability of a growing number of states is now at stake, tensions are therefore likely to rise rapidly. For example:

    1) Scotland preparing to hold a referendum on independence in September 2014 and, if it wins, thereafter taking a very significant part of the North Sea oil & gas reserves with it…

    2) China flexing its military muscle to attempt to bring the Senkaku islands and its potential oil & gas reserves within its exclusive jurisdiction…

    3) China and Russia siding with Iran and forcing the US to “abdicate” a military option against Iran that would give the US exclusive control over the remaining Persian Gulf oil & gas reserves…

    JB

    P.S: Drawing an EROEI & net energy map of our emerging “brave new world” would be an interesting exercise…

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Very good points!

      EROEI mathematics make it difficult for a complex high-tech society to survive when EROEI falls below 11/1. Societies are built up from the ground, and interdependent on other societies, so I would argue that it is very difficult for them to be replaced by a new society with an average EROEI requirement of say, 5:1. Oil is a critical element in the way any society using today’s transportation vehicles. The amount of oil would need to drop very low, cutting back very much that which could be done.

  20. Great to hear from you Gail. Yes, I can see some of the logic around seeking a new source of cheap energy (after initial high expenses), but also agree it’s a long way off. Maybe post QE/transition which I’ve pasted in my ideas on below. I’m interested to find out what you think of this possible scenario.

    I’ve gotten a glimpse of how all this plays out. QE by most of the world’s central banks is the last gasp of a debt bubble that has gotten too big to ever pay off and any increase in interest takes too much from tax revenue. So QE must continue, but it is an endgame, and that is why China is doing 3x’s the amount of QE as the US. They know this is endgame and also why they are loading up on Gold, suggesting a world currency.

    This is how it plays out:

    1. Some event like taper or something else causes the equity, bond and derivative bubbles to burst. Interest rates rise.

    2. At higher interest rates, debt levels are too high to service and pay for all other government commitments.

    3. The G8 agree to a debt jubilee, in which all federal, state, local and personal debts are wiped clean. Along with this is also loss of pensions and social security (and other entitlements) which are other forms of debt.

    4. Elimination of all currencies to be replaced by one world currency pegged to gold/silver. This will end the current currency wars and create an even playing field for all imports/exports.

    5. People’s personal cash in banks will be converted to the new currency, but gold will be astronomically higher valued than it currently is (because there isn’t enough for a world currency otherwise), so people will only get pennies on the dollar in the exchange.

    6. Banks will have a section for people to exchange their gold/silver for the new currency. This is why it is important to load up now.

    7. The new world economy will get started slowly during a transition period, but you won’t owe on your house, cars, credit cards or any other loans. However food and water (and other necessities) will be difficult to come by. The govt. will have locations where food is given out, but they will be dangerous and wait times will be in the days/hours, so load up now while you can.

    8. This new era will be post peak oil. Whatever economy arises will never achieve the same level as before, so certain non-conventional oil sources will no longer be economically viable. Oil will go from 91 million barrels a day to about 40 during the transition, and recover to something like 60, which will be mostly oil that already has an infrastructure set up for easy extraction.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      My understanding is that China is adding a huge amount of debt, but not actually doing quantitative easing. For example, see China’s Debt Dwarfs the Fed’s Quantitative Easing. There is a big difference between more debt and QE. Or do you have a reference on China’s QE?

      One issue I see with your scenario going forward is a lack of ability of governments to hold on, given the problems you point out. New governments are likely to be local or regional, and are likely to provide much less in the way of services. The change in organization is likely to add a whole lot of problems, by itself–which governments should be recognized in trade agreements, for example.

      I expect major disruption in services that we have come to depend on–particularly electricity and oil. These disruptions will make it hard for banks to operate. Without many operating banks, there will still be local trade, but it will use different conversions in different parts of the world. There may also be some long-distance trade, but it will be with trusted partners.

      • I got that info. on China from Zero Hedge (somewhat controversial site), but their article did not provide a link. Guess I won’t be quoting them anymore. Thanks for your link though which was very informative.

  21. Wow, I didn’t think you thought any form of renewables would work, but your presentation on space solar suggests an alternative to collapse. Hmm.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The timing is pretty bad, though. We are facing financial issues now. Space solar is a long ways off in the future.

  22. Pingback: Actuary Explains How An Oil Supply Crisis Could Bring Down The Global Economy | Lord of the Net

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  28. jbsties – Charlottesville, VA – Husband, father, architect, gardener and brewer.
    jbsties says:

    Thanks for creating the new presentation page, Gail. I look forward to your on-going analysis of our situation.

  29. Pingback: Energy Products: Return on Investment is Already Too Low | Our Finite World

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