Presentations/Podcasts

The following is a list of recent presentations and podcasts up through 2015. I have moved the later presentations to a 2016-2017 sheet.

Interview with Jim Kunstler about my views on energy and the economy (40 minutes) published November 4:

Presentation to Space Solar section of 2015 IEE International Conference on Wireless for Space and Extreme Environments – Orlando, Florida, Dec. 15, 2015 Energy Economics Outlook

Related post: We are at Peak Oil now; we need very low-cost energy to fix it

Presentation to Investor Group in San Francisco, Oct. 31, 2015: Oops! The economy depends on an energy-related debt bubble

Related post: Oops! Low oil prices are related to a debt bubble

Presentation to Indiana Energy Conference, Oct. 15, 2015: Our Electricity Crisis: Getting the Diagnosis Right

Related post: Our Electricity Problem: Getting the Diagnosis Correct

Doomstead Diner Discussions on TSHTF- Three Recordings on Aug. 23, 2015.  These are the up on Doomstead Diner:

Energy Discussion (Part 1), with Gail Tverberg, Nicole Fosse, Steve Ludlum, Tom Lewis, Norman Pagett, Ugo Bardi, Reverse Engineer, and Monsta.

Audio Version  of  Energy Discussion also available:

Economics and China Discussion (Part 2)

Renewables and What’s Ahead (Last part, numbered Part 4, no part 3)

Doomstead Diner Discussion on Greece, with Reverse Engineer, Ugo Bardi, Steve Ludlum – July 5, 2015

Doomstead Diner Interview by Reverse Engineer with Gail Tverberg and Steve Ludlum about China, Migration, Resource Depletion, and Oil Prices – May 3, 2015

Sound only version (mp3)

Doomstead Diner Audio Interview of Gail by Reverse Engineer on China Visit – April 12, 2015

Videos of Presentations Given at China University of Petroleum, Beijing, March 2015

These are the MP4 versions of the talks. The talks have been edited to remove questions from the floor, and discussion about these questions, partly because the single microphone used for recording did not pick up these conversations well. Also, much of this discussion was in Chinese, because the students often were not confident of their ability to speak in English.

First Topic – Overview of Energy Modeling Problem

Second Topic – Importance of Energy

Third Topic – Overview of a Networked Economy

Fourth Topic – Economic Growth and Diminishing Returns

Fifth Topic – Government Costs and Debt

Sixth Topic – Competition and Resource Exhaustion

Seventh Topic – Twelve Principles of Energy and the Economy (Review)

Eighth Topic – Renewable Energy

PDFs of Presentations Given at China University of Petroleum, Beijing, March 2015

1. Overview of Energy Modeling Problem

2 Importance of Energy

3 Overview of a Networked Economy

4 Economic Growth – Diminishing Returns

5 Government costs and debt

6. Competition and Resource Exhaustion

7. Twelve Principles of Energy and the Economy

8. Renewable Energy

Video Giving Overview of My 2015 March-April Visit to China

I started my visit by teaching a two-week course at China University of Petroleum, Beijing. Next, I did some sightseeing in Inner Mongolia, including visiting the Genghis Khan museum and the city of Ordos. Later, I visited Daqing oil field and city (also called “Daqing”), and then took a train to the declining industrial city of Haerbin. Finally, I visited three businesses manufacturing and selling electrical equipment in the city of Hangzhou near Shanghai to find out how the poor economy was affecting their business. The company selling the largest scale electrical equipment, often to international customers, was most affected. The company selling relatively small equipment used inside residential and small commercial buildings in China was affected least. The company manufacturing mid-sized equipment was moderately affected.

Readings of some of my posts, by Timothy Dicks – Jan. 26, 2015

These are available as you tube videos with copies of my charts and other images, and also as podcasts. The You-Tube videos are

Ten Reasons Why a Severe Drop in Oil Prices is a Problem – Video recording

Low Oil Prices – Sign of a debt Bubble Collapse, Leading to the End of Oil Supply – Video Recording

Oil and the Economy: Where are We Headed in 2015-2016? – Video Recording

Ten Reasons Why High Oil Prices are a Problem – Video Recording

Twelve Reasons Why Globalization is a Huge Problem – Video Recording

A New Theory of Energy and the Economy – Part 2 – Charts  Showing the Link Between Energy and the Economy – Video Recording

A New Theory of Energy and the Economy – Part 3 – The Problem of Debt as We Reach Oil Limits

This is a link to a file with the podcast version of the above posts–Our Finite World

Audio Interview with Chris Martenson on Peak Prosperity –  Jan. 17, 2015

Write up on Peak Prosperity of Interview

Doomstead Diner Chrystal Ball 2015 with several others on Jan, 4, 2015.

Source; Chrystal Ball 2015

Newsmax TV Interview with Ed Berliner Regarding US-China Climate Accord on Nov. 12, 2014.

This is a link to a write-up of the interview, as well as to the five minute video (starting with a clip of Obama). I could not figure out how to embed the interview directly.

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsmax-Tv/China-US-climate/2014/11/12/id/606990/

Doomstead Diner Discussion regarding low oil prices, with Ugo Bardi, Steve Ludlum (Steve from Virginia) and Gail Tverberg, November 9, 2014.

Source: Doomstead Diner

Presentation at UNED Energy Conference in Barbastro, Spain, October 10, 2014 

Energy and the Economy: Twelve Basic Principles in a Finite World

Doomstead Diner Anniversary Podcast with Ugo Bardi and Gail Tverberg June 15, 2014.

Source: Doomstead Diner Collapse Cafe

Presentation at the Age of Limits Conference in Artemis PA on May 25, 2014.

Converging Crises – May 25, 2014.

Presentation at the International Congress of Actuaries meeting in Washington, D. C., April 4, 2014.

The Case for Near Term Resource Limits

Interview by Chris Martenson on PeakProsperity.com, aired Dec. 7. Title: The Shale Oil Boom is More “Mirage” than “Miracle.”

IEEE International Conference on Wireless for Space and Extreme Environments (WiSEE) Space Solar Power Workshop in Baltimore, Maryland, Nov. 8, 2013

Energy Economics Motivating Space Solar Power

Presentation at Casualty Actuarial Society Annual Meeting in Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nov. 5 and 6 (Given twice)

Oil limits impact on the economy and insurers

Presentation at Casualty Actuarial Society In Focus: Elephants in the Room Conference, September 30, 2013, Chicago

Tverberg_Oil supply limits may lead to severe recession

Limits to Growth Video Interview – September 29, 2013

Interviewer: Monsta and Roger Ebert of Doomstead Diner

Ugo Bardi, George Mobus, and David Korowicz also interviewed

Syria Interview Video – September 16, 2013

Interviewer: Monsta and Roger Ebert of Doomstead Diner
Brian Davey of Feasta also Interviewed
Also available at Collapse Cafe

Zurich American – Meeting of Company Actuaries – August 21, 2013

Oil limits, the Economy and Insurance

Credit and Energy Interview Parts 1 & 2 – June 25, 2013

Interviewer: Monsta and Ralph Emerson of Doomstead Diner
Source: Doomstead Diner – Podcast: Gail Tverberg- Credit and Energy

Fifth Biophysical Economics Conference – June 10, 2013 – University of Vermont 

Presentation: How High and Rising Oil Prices Can Lead to Limits to Growth

An MP3 recorded by Justin Richie of extraenvironmentalist.com is provided below (Many thanks!):

The conclusion I reach is that overall, we seem to be close to financial collapse. Thus, the “space” for declining future Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI) is virtually zero. To me, this means that we now need to be looking from ways to raise EROI, rather than  assuming that we can keep adding new low EROI  energy production to the system, without adverse consequences.

Age of Limits Conference – May 25 and 26, 2013 – Artemis, Pennsylvania

Presentation 1: Collapse 101

Podcast related to Collapse 101:

Presentation 2: Energy, Debt, and Financial Collapse

Podcast related to Energy, Debt, and Financial Collapse:

Thanks to Doomstead Diner Blog for making these recordings.

Electric Power Conference – 2013 – May 15, 2013 – Chicago, Illinois

Presentation: Energy Economics Relating to Space Solar Power

A related, somewhat longer presentation was given to the Georgia Institute of Technology AIAA/ ASM Group, March 19, 2013.

Presentation: Energy Economics Motivating Space Solar Power Development

A related post on Our Finite World is Our Energy Predicament in Charts

Atlanta Beyond Oil – November 14, 2102 – Atlanta, Georgia

Presentation: Low Energy Approaches in India China and Russia

Advances in Energy Studies Conference – Oct. 26, 2012 – Mumbai, India

Presentation: Financial Issues Affecting Energy Security.presentation

My paper, also called “Financial Issues Affecting Energy Security,” is being published in a volume called Energy Security and Development by Cambridge Scholars Publishing, UK.

A Presentation from 2011, Given to Quite a Few Groups

Presentation: Energy and the Economy – Bumping against the Growth Ceiling

This is the related Our Finite World post: Oil Limits, Recession, and Bumping Against the Growth Ceiling0

33 Responses to Presentations/Podcasts

  1. JB says:

    A key element that needs to be taken in consideration in the 2013 International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook (WEO) is the key statement that the oil industry capital expenditure has risen by nearly 180% since 2000 but with the global oil supply (adjusted for energy content) rising only by 14%.

    This is the clear sign of a rapidly declining Energy Return Over Energy Invested (EROEI)…

    In other words oil economics have become completely dislocated from historic norms since 2000 (and especially since 2005) and the industry is now desperately investing at exponentially higher rates to gain increasingly smaller new amounts of net energy. One should recognize that this is a situation clearly unsustainable over a long period of time…

    What is the impact of this situation on future economic growth, which most politicians are still expecting will save the day by reducing the relative size of the current high debt (in particular sovereign debt) with respect to GDP:

    1) If the oil industry is now sucking from the available capital pool 180% more funds to produce only slightly more net energy than in 2000, the amount of capital available to fund other projects is considerably reduced;

    2) If we have today only 14% more net energy available than in 2000 to power the world economy, there is no doubt that global growth is now hitting the “energy wall” because there is now only a very limited supply of available energy to power any potential new material economic activity… No wonder that most of the reported economic growth since 2000 was related to financial sector “paper” gains mostly derived from speculative activities, in particular on the OTC derivatives market (the largest casino on Earth)… With the currently high depletion rates needing to be constantly offset, there was simply almost no additional net energy available to power any potential new material project ! One wonders what will happen with the even higher tight oil & shale gas depletion rates when that unconventional production represents a significant part of the overall oil & gas production mix…

    Of course this macroeconomic picture varies on a country by country basis and even on a region by region basis depending on the local net energy availability situation and on the local marginal cost of that energy.

    Charles Hall’s important work – as described in his seminal “Energy and the Wealth of Nations” – concludes that EROEI mathematics will make it very difficult for a complex high-tech society to survive when its average EROEI falls below 11/1…

    Hence, given that the future survivability of a growing number of states is now at stake, tensions are therefore likely to rise rapidly. For example:

    1) Scotland preparing to hold a referendum on independence in September 2014 and, if it wins, thereafter taking a very significant part of the North Sea oil & gas reserves with it…

    2) China flexing its military muscle to attempt to bring the Senkaku islands and its potential oil & gas reserves within its exclusive jurisdiction…

    3) China and Russia siding with Iran and forcing the US to “abdicate” a military option against Iran that would give the US exclusive control over the remaining Persian Gulf oil & gas reserves…

    JB

    P.S: Drawing an EROEI & net energy map of our emerging “brave new world” would be an interesting exercise…

    • Very good points!

      EROEI mathematics make it difficult for a complex high-tech society to survive when EROEI falls below 11/1. Societies are built up from the ground, and interdependent on other societies, so I would argue that it is very difficult for them to be replaced by a new society with an average EROEI requirement of say, 5:1. Oil is a critical element in the way any society using today’s transportation vehicles. The amount of oil would need to drop very low, cutting back very much that which could be done.

  2. Stilgar Wilcox says:

    “If we have today only 14% more net energy available than in 2000 to power the world economy, there is no doubt that global growth is now hitting the “energy wall” because there is now only a very limited supply of available energy to power any potential new material economic activity…”

    Really well put. I think this is why in my opinion we are in end game via QE at least until some major transition can occur to a much lower powered new economy.

  3. Stilgar Wilcox says:

    Gail, you replied to one of my post’s regarding China QE (which I got from Zero Hedge), in which you were certain China was not engaged in QE. Here’s a current link below to a posted article in which Zero Hedge claims China is now tapering. See below:

    “China, very surprisingly, is also tapering concurrently is finally being appreciated as is the fact that despite all talk of preparedness, developing economies were hardly left unscathed following yesterday’s development.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/
    ‘Complete Recap Of Overnight’s Volatile Markets’

    Here’s a link to that article I had previously read on Zero Hedge about China QE, but it actually refers to huge increases in their banks liquidity, so maybe that is something else?

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-25/chart-day-how-chinas-stunning-15-trillion-new-liquidity-blew-bernankes-qe-out-water

    If they are not employing QE, then how are they able to increase bank liquidity by such an incredibly huge amount?

    • The way I am reading this, Zero Hedge is using QE in a broader sense. It seems to be comparing real credit creation in China to the QE the US and some other countries are doing. Notice this sentence,

      But more importantly, as with all communicating vessels, global liquidity is now in a constant state of laminar flow – out of central banks: either unadulterated as in the US, Japan, Europe and the UK, or implicit, when Chinese government-backstopped banks create nearly $4 trillion in loans every year. If one issuer of liquidity “tapers”, others have to step in. Indeed, as we suggested a few weeks ago, any possibility of a Fed taper would likely involve incremental QE by the Bank of Japan, and vice versa.(Emphasis added.)

      I think that what ZeroHedge is saying is that the US and other parts of the world are not having real increases in debt, so have been “simulating” an increase in debt with QE, only it isn’t really getting out into the economy. China, on the other hand, has been adding an amazing amount of real debt–about $4 trillion a year. He seems to be suggesting that if one country cuts back, another country had to make up for the shortfall.

      I visited China in 2011 and was astounded by all of the new buildings that were being put up. All of this building was financed by debt. Prior to the building boom, families had lived in housing provided by their employers, as part of their compensation. This housing generally had shared out-house type bathroom facilities, for something like eight families together. In the new program, families are being given mortgages for the first time on condos in high rise buildings. One big draw is indoor bathrooms. The condos also have electricity–I am not sure if all of the earlier homes did–and even the opportunity for air conditioners, if people want to buy them. If growth keeps going indefinitely, these debts can be repaid. Otherwise, these debts may very well be a problem. The amount of debt relative to income was quite high, especially in places like Beijing. People were counting on rising condo prices to bail them out of financial problems. If housing prices drop, there will be a problem.

      Debt seems to be the magical approach everyone uses to make fossil fuels affordable to their populations. That approach works when there is cheap-to-extract fossil fuel (like coal in China) available. But once growth slows down and stops, debt tends to contract, rather than increase. The Federal Reserve is trying to counter-act this contraction with QE. It is holding interest rates down, but it is not leading to more debt by consumers.

  4. Stilgar Wilcox says:

    Thanks Gail. Sure glad you’re around to help out with some of this financial stuff which can get complicated, but probably the simple thing to remember is what you stated in the final paragraph above; “Debt seems to be the magical approach everyone uses to make fossil fuels affordable to their populations.”

    Very interesting first hand info. on China as well. I didn’t know of the mortgage program. That’s one way to fill the vacancies and I suppose we’ll just have to see if they are employed long enough to help pay down the tab on China’s debt. But nice to hear they are experiencing what are for many of them new luxuries, most of us in the West take for granted. China’s trying to leap ahead so fast it seems quite dangerous, especially as oil gets pricier to extract.

  5. Stilgar Wilcox says:

    Gail, not sure if you are affiliated with the following link, but it has the exact same photo of trees at top as yours. http://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2014/01/08/wow-its-cold-out-there/

    Deja vu!

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