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Tag Archives: fossil fuels
2024: Too Many Things Going Wrong
In 2024, the world economy is acting more and more like an 80-year-old man than like a young vigorous economy. Perhaps the economy can continue for quite a few more years, but it increasingly looks like it is in danger of falling apart, or of succumbing as a result of what might be regarded as minor problems. Continue reading
Can India come out ahead in an energy squeeze?
The slower the growth, the more sustainable an economy is over the moderately long term.
Energy consumption and the use of complexity tend to rise together.
Too much complexity can lead to collapse.
In general, the most “efficient” economies can be expected to do best.
Over the long term, all economies will collapse.
There have been shifts in which economies get a major share of available energy supplies. Shifting patterns are likely again in the future.
India may come out ahead in an energy squeeze because its warm climate and conservative culture allow its energy consumption per capita to remain low. Continue reading
Posted in Energy policy, Financial Implications
Tagged complexity, fossil fuels, limits to growth, sustainability
2,991 Comments
The World Economy Is Becoming Unglued; Models Miss Real-World Behavior
A common belief is that if the world does not have adequate energy, the result will be high prices. These high prices will allow more fossil fuels to be extracted or will allow renewables to substitute for fossil fuels.
In my view, the real issue is quite different: Inadequate energy supply of the types the economy requires can be expected to affect the economy in a way that causes it to become “unglued.” The economy will gradually fall apart as infighting becomes more of a problem. Goods won’t necessarily be high-priced; many simply won’t be available at any price. Political parties will fragment. Conflict within countries, such as the recent Wagner conflict with the military leadership in Russia, will become more common. Continue reading
How Energy Transition Models Go Wrong
I have written many posts relating to the fact that we live in a finite world. At some point, our ability to extract resources becomes constrained. At the same time, population keeps increasing. The usual outcome when population is too high for resources is “overshoot and collapse.” But this is not a topic that the politicians or central bankers or oligarchs who attend the World Economic Forum dare to talk about.
Instead, world leaders find a different problem, namely climate change, to emphasize above other problems. Conveniently, climate change seems to have some of the same solutions as “running out of fossil fuels.” So, a person might think that an energy transition designed to try to fix climate change would work equally well to try to fix running out of fossil fuels. Unfortunately, this isn’t really the way it works.
Posted in Energy policy
Tagged fossil fuels, low oil prices, solar energy, wind energy
3,781 Comments
Scientific Models and Myths: What Is the Difference?
Most people seem to think, “The difference between models and myths is that models are scientific, and myths are the conjectures of primitive people who do not have access to scientific thinking and computers. With scientific models, we have moved … Continue reading
Posted in Financial Implications
Tagged collapse, fossil fuels, religion, renewable energy, renewables, research grants
1,598 Comments
