Ramping Up Renewables Can’t Provide Enough Heat Energy in Winter

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We usually don’t think about the wonderful service fossil fuels provide in terms of being a store of heat energy for winter, the time when there is a greater need for heat energy. Figure 1 shows dramatically how, in the US, the residential usage of heating fuels spikes during the winter months.

Figure 1. US residential use of energy, based on EIA data. The category “Natural Gas, etc.” includes all fuels bought directly by households and burned. This is primarily natural gas, but also includes small amounts of propane and diesel burned as heating oil. Wood chips or other commercial wood purchased to be burned is also in this category.

Solar energy is most abundantly available in the May-June-July period, making it a poor candidate for fixing the problem of the need for winter heat.

Figure 2. California solar electricity production by month through June 30, 2022, based on EIA data. Amounts are for utility scale and small scale solar combined.

In some ways, the lack of availability of fuels for winter is a canary in the coal mine regarding future energy shortages. People have been concerned about oil shortages, but winter fuel shortages are, in many ways, just as bad. They can result in people “freezing in the dark.”

In this post, I will look at some of the issues involved.

[1] Batteries are suitable for fine-tuning the precise time during a 24-hour period solar electricity is used. They cannot be scaled up to store solar energy from summer to winter.

In today’s world, batteries can be used to delay the use of solar electricity for at most a few hours. In exceptional situations, perhaps the holding period can be increased to a few days.

California is known both for its high level of battery storage and its high level of renewables. These renewables include both solar and wind energy, plus smaller amounts of electricity generated in geothermal plants and electricity generated by burning biomass. The problem encountered is that the electricity generated by solar panels tends to start and end too early in the day, relative to when citizens want to use this electricity. After citizens return home after work, they would like to cook their dinners and use their air conditioning, leading to considerable demand after the sun sets.

Figure 3. Illustration by Inside Climate News showing the combination of resources utilized during July 9, 2022, which was a day of peak electricity consumption. Imports refer to electricity purchased from outside the State of California.

Figure 3 illustrates how batteries in combination with hydroelectric generation (hydro) are used to save electricity generation from early in the day for use in the evening hours. While battery use is suitable for fine tuning exactly when, during a 24-hour period, solar energy will be used, the quantity of batteries cannot be ramped up sufficiently to save electricity from summer to winter. The world would run out of battery-making materials, if nothing else.

[2] Ramping up hydro is not a solution to our problem of inadequate energy for heat in winter.

One problem is that, in long-industrialized economies, hydro capabilities were built out years ago.

Figure 4. Annual hydro generation based on data of BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

It is difficult to believe that much more buildout is available in these countries.

Another issue is that hydro tends to be quite variable from year to year, even over an area as large as the United States, as shown in Figure 4 above. When the variability is viewed over a smaller area, the year-to-year variability is even higher, as illustrated in Figure 5 below.

Figure 5. Monthly California hydroelectric generation through June 30, 2022, based on EIA data.

The pattern shown reflects peak generation in the spring, when the ice pack is melting. Low generation generally occurs during the winter, when the ice pack is frozen. Thus, hydro tends not be helpful for raising winter energy supplies. A similar pattern tends to happen in other temperate areas.

A third issue is that variability in hydro supply is already causing problems. Norway has recently reported that it may need to limit hydro exports in coming months because water reservoirs are low. Norway’s exports of electricity are used to help balance Europe’s wind and solar electricity. Thus, this issue may lead to yet another energy problem for Europe.

As another example, China reports a severe power crunch in its Sichuan Province, related to low rainfall and high temperatures. Fossil fuel generation is not available to fill the gap.

[3] Wind energy is not a greatly better than hydro and solar, in terms of variability and poor timing of supply.

For example, Europe experienced a power crunch in the third quarter of 2021 related to weak winds. Europe’s largest wind producers (Britain, Germany and France) produced only 14% of their rated capacity during this period, compared with an average of 20% to 26% in previous years. No one had planned for this kind of three-month shortfall.

In 2021, China experienced dry, windless weather, resulting in both its generation from wind and hydro being low. The country found it needed to use rolling blackouts to deal with the situation. This led to traffic lights failing and many families needing to eat candle-lit dinners.

Even viewed on a nationwide basis, US wind generation varies considerably from month to month.

Figure 6. Total US wind electricity generation through June 20, 2022, based on EIA data.

US total wind electricity generation tends to be highest in April or May. This can cause oversupply issues because hydro generation tends to be high about the same time. The demand for electricity tends to be low because of generally mild weather. The result is that even at today’s renewable levels, a wet, windy spring can lead to a situation in which the combination of hydro and wind electricity supply exceeds total local demand for electricity.

[4] As more wind and solar are added to the grid, the challenges and costs become increasingly great.

There are a huge number of technical problems associated with trying to add a large amount of wind and solar energy to the grid. Some of them are outlined in Figure 7.

Figure 7. Introductory slide from a presentation by power engineers shown in this YouTube Video.

One of the issues is torque distortion, especially related to wind energy.

Figure 8. Slide describing torque distortion issues from the same presentation to power engineers as Figure 7. YouTube Video.

There are also many other issues, including some outlined on this Drax website. Wind and solar provide no “inertia” to the system. This makes me wonder whether the grid could even function without a substantial amount of fossil fuel or nuclear generation providing sufficient inertia.

Furthermore, wind and solar tend to make voltage fluctuate, necessitating systems to absorb and discharge something called “reactive power.”

[5] The word “sustainable” has created unrealistic expectations with respect to intermittent wind and solar electricity.

A person in the wind turbine repair industry once told me, “Wind turbines run on a steady supply of replacement parts.” Individual parts may be made to last 20-years, or even longer, but there are so many parts that some are likely to need replacement long before that time. An article in Windpower Engineering says, “Turbine gearboxes are typically given a design life of 20 years, but few make it past the 10-year mark.”

There is also the problem of wind damage, especially in the case of a severe storm.

Figure 9. Hurricane-damaged solar panels in Puerto Rico. Source.

Furthermore, the operational lives for fossil fuel and nuclear generating plants are typically much longer than those for wind and solar. In the US, some nuclear plants have licenses to operate for 60 years. Efforts are underway to extend some licenses to 80 years.

With the short life spans for wind and solar, constant rebuilding of wind turbines and solar generation is necessary, using fossil fuels. Between the rebuilding issue and the need for fossil fuels to maintain the electric grid, the output of wind turbines and solar panels cannot be expected to last any longer than fossil fuel supply.

[6] Energy modeling has led to unrealistic expectations for wind and solar.

Energy models don’t take into account all of the many adjustments to the transmission system that are needed to support wind and solar, and the resulting added costs. Besides the direct cost of the extra transmission required, there is an ongoing need to inspect parts for signs of wear. Brush around the transmission lines also needs to be cut back. If adequate maintenance is not performed, transmission lines can cause fires. Burying transmission lines is sometimes an option, but doing so is expensive, both in energy use and cost.

Energy models also don’t take into account the way wind turbines and solar panels perform in “real life.” In particular, most researchers miss the point that electricity from solar panels cannot be expected to be very helpful for meeting our need for heat energy in winter. If we want to add more summer air conditioning, solar panels can “sort of” support this effort, especially if batteries are also added to help fine tune when, during the 24-hour day, the solar electricity will be utilized. Unfortunately, we don’t have any realistic way of saving the output of solar panels from summer to winter.

It seems to me that supporting air conditioning is a rather frivolous use for what seems to be a dwindling quantity of available energy supply. In my opinion, our first two priorities should be adequate food supply and preventing freezing in the dark in winter. Solar, especially, does nothing for these issues. Wind can be used to pump water for crops and animals. In fact, an ordinary windmill, built 100 years ago, can also be used to provide this type of service.

Because of the intermittency issue, especially the “summer to winter” intermittency issue, wind and solar are not truly replacements for electricity produced by fossil fuels or nuclear. The problem is that most of the current system needs to remain in place, in addition to the renewable energy system. When researchers make cost comparisons, they should be comparing the cost of the intermittent energy, including necessary batteries and grid enhancements with the cost of the fuel saved by operating these devices.

[7] Competitive pricing plans that enable the growth of wind and solar electricity are part of what is pushing a number of areas in the world toward a “freezing-in-the-dark” problem.

In the early days of electricity production, “utility pricing” was generally used. With this approach, vertical integration of electricity supply was encouraged. A utility would make long term contracts with a number of providers and would set prices for customers based on the expected long-term cost of electricity production and distribution. The utility would make certain that transmission lines were properly repaired and would add new generation as needed.

Energy prices of all kinds spiked in the late 1970s. Not long afterward, in an attempt to prevent high electricity prices from causing inflation, a shift in pricing arrangements started taking place. More competition was encouraged, with the new approach called competitive pricing. Vertically integrated groups were broken up. Wholesale electricity prices started varying by time of day, based on which providers were willing to sell their production at the lowest price, for that particular time period. This approach encouraged providers to neglect maintaining their power lines and stop adding more storage capacity. Any kind of overhead expense was discouraged.

In fact, under this arrangement, wind and solar were also given the privilege of “going first.” If too much energy in total was produced, negative rates could result for other providers. This approach was especially harmful for nuclear energy. Nuclear power plants found that their overall price structure was too low. They sometimes closed because of inadequate profitability. New investments in nuclear energy were discouraged, as was proper maintenance. This effect has been especially noticeable in Europe.

Figure 10. Nuclear, wind and solar electricity generated in Europe, based on data of BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

The result is that about a third of the gain from wind and solar energy has been offset by the decline in nuclear electricity generation. Of course, nuclear is another low-carbon form of electricity. It is a great deal more reliable than wind or solar. It can even help prevent freezing in the dark because it is likely to be available in winter, when more electricity for heating is likely to be needed.

Another issue is that competitive pricing discouraged the building of adequate storage facilities for natural gas. Also, it tended to discourage purchasing natural gas under long term contracts. The thinking went, “Rather than building storage, why not wait until the natural gas is needed, and then purchase it at the market rate?”

Unfortunately, producing natural gas requires long-term investments. Companies producing natural gas operate wells that produce approximately equal amounts year-round. The same pattern of high winter-consumption of natural gas tends to occur almost simultaneously in many Northern Hemisphere areas with cold winters. If the system is going to work, customers need to be purchasing natural gas, year-round, and stowing it away for winter.

Natural gas production has been falling in Europe, as has coal production (not shown), necessitating more imports of replacement fuel, often natural gas.

Figure 11. Natural gas production in Europe, based on data of BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

With competitive rating and LNG ships seeming to sell natural gas on an “as needed” basis, there has been a tendency in Europe to overlook the need for long term contracts and additional storage to go with rising natural gas imports. Now, Europe is starting to discover the folly of this approach. Solar is close to worthless for providing electricity in winter; wind cannot be relied upon. It doesn’t ramp up nearly quickly enough, in any reasonable timeframe. The danger is that countries will risk having their citizens freeze in the dark because of inadequate natural gas import availability.

[8] The world is a very long way from producing enough wind and solar to solve its energy problems, especially its need for heat in winter.

The energy supply that the world uses includes much more than electricity. It contains oil and fuels burned directly, such as natural gas. The percentage share of this total energy supply that wind and solar output provides depends on how it is counted. The International Energy Agency treats wind and solar as if they only replace fuel, rather than replacing dispatchable electricity.

Figure 12 Wind and solar generation for a category called “Wind, Solar, etc.” by the IEA. Amounts are for 2020 for Germany, the UK, Australia, Norway, the United States, and Japan. For other groups shown in this chart, the amounts are calculated using 2019 data.

On this basis, the share of total energy provided by the Wind and Solar category is very low, only 2.2% for the world as a whole. Germany comes out highest of the groups analyzed, but even it is replacing only 6.0% of its total energy consumed. It is difficult to imagine how the land and water around Germany could tolerate wind turbines and solar panels being ramped up sufficiently to cover such a shortfall. Other parts of the world are even farther from replacing current energy supplies with wind and solar.

Clearly, we cannot expect wind and solar to ever be ramped up to meet our energy needs, even in combination with hydro.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,845 Responses to Ramping Up Renewables Can’t Provide Enough Heat Energy in Winter

  1. fromoasa says:

    Back to Tim’s argument about who starved in the Soviet Union. So OK, Russians starved in the famines as well as Ukrainians. But why did they starve? Because the Bolsheviks messed up the economy. So the question is, who started it? Who started Bolshevism in the Russian Empire? Who started communism and Marxism-Leninism? Was it the Russians, or the Ukrainians, or both? I guess we’ll have to ask that awesome limey historian, Basil Fawlty, from that ancient British TV comedy.

    Lenin was Russian. Trotsky is described as Russian-Ukrainian. His birthplace is located nowadays in Ukraine, but the guy was ethnically Russian. Of the top communists, Kliment Voroshilov and Lazar Kaganovich were Ukies. Not so many, then. Guess I’d tell the Russians that, on balance, THEY started it – it being communism, the revolution, et cetera. So they’re to blame for the Holodomor, the starved Ukies and the Ukies’ folk-memory-hatred of the Russkies.

    • Lidia17 says:

      “A hundred years after the Bolsheviks swept to power, historians and contemporaries still struggle to understand the prominent role played by Jews. …

      “A recent article in The New Yorker about ‘Lenin and the Russian Spark,’ chronicling 100 years since the journey, entirely discounts the Jewish aspect of the revolutionaries. …

      “According to Leonard Schapiro, who authored The Role of the Jews in the Russian Revolutionary Movement in 1961, Herzl found that “50% of the membership of the revolutionary parties was Jewish.”

      https://www.jpost.com/magazine/was-the-russian-revolution-jewish-514323

      At the time Jews were 2% of the Russian population, the article notes.

      • start a radical political movement—give it a name

        Marxism/communism is as good as any

        as soon as it gains traction and real power, it does 3 things:

        1 put down all opposing political movements

        2 elevate its leadership to positions of absolute power

        3 make dissent a criminal offence

        In the middle ages, churches did exactly the same thing, (with god’s blessing naturally)

        And in case anyone is wondering where this is headed, the USA is lining itself up for a delightful combination of the two—Theo Fascism.
        And don’t think there would be a shortage of people willing to inflict theocratic dictatorship on everyone else.

        There has never been a lack of people eager to do god’s work.

    • JMS says:

      “So the question is, who started it? Who started Bolshevism in the Russian Empire?”

      Since Bolshevism (acording to Antony Sutton) would hardly have triumphed without the help of Wall Street (and the complacency of the German government), I’m afraid the answer to your question is less simple than you think. .

    • drb753 says:

      Here is a clue to you. They were all (Lenin 1/4) part of a tribe which considers itself the only true humans. So, OK, Trotsky and Kaganovich and Voroshilov may have had passports from certain republics, but it does not matter.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      They starved them on purpose because they were not playing along with Collectivization

  2. Fast Eddy says:

    Just browsing GVB …

    So, the Omicron variants themselves are eliciting immune responses by virtue of recalling vaccine-induced antibodies with decreasing neutralizing incapacity. The Omicron variants are themselves eliciting immune responses that will put immune pressure on the very variant that has caused the recall of these immune responses with low neutralizing capacity.

    So, you can already imagine that when these Omicron variants circulate and you get these breakthrough infections over and over again, that this will lead to a vicious circle which is going to escalate the rate of immune escape. It already explains, of course, why also updated vaccines, so to say adapted to Omicron, are a complete nonsense. This is an insult to the science. How can you be so stupid? It can only be if you have no clue about this mechanism of immune refocusing. And there are now many, many publications that describe the evolution of how the immune response is getting enriched in poorly neutralizing and non-neutralizing antibodies.

    https://www.voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org/videos-and-interviews/it-is-5-past-12

  3. Fast Eddy says:

    Cassandra was right too…

    Hello everyone. My name is Geert Vanden Bossche. I’m a seasoned vaccinologist with background in veterinary medicine, in biology, immunology, microbial diseases. I have been sending out video messages before and this is probably the last one I’m going to do. I will still write articles, I will still do interviews.

    But this is my last video message. And the reason why I’m sending out this video message is because I can no longer stand it. For me, it has become unbearable to see how our health authorities, our experts and governments are still trying to make people believe that the COVID-19 vaccines are safe and that they will be able to control the pandemic. In this presentation I made a few PowerPoint slides.

    I will show you that, as I have already been saying in the past, this is an unbelievable blunder. It is an insult to the science. It is unbelievable how scientists can still support this kind of strategy, whereas there is overwhelming evidence that the mass vaccination and the upcoming or updated omicron vaccination will just make things much, much worse. So, this news is sobering, but I have no choice. I have to share it because we have a passion for the truth and we believe that the truth will prevail.

    https://www.voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org/videos-and-interviews/it-is-5-past-12

    It’s like a soccer game in extra time … as with that you don’t know how much time has been added.

    Exciting huh???

  4. moss says:

    Interesting comment from John Ward in The Gambia this week which I expect will resonate with others. Reminded me of Suskind’s 2004 reports of reality creation

    He’s referring to the years of financial chaos following 2008 – bailouts, sharmarket collapse, mortgages, derivatives and how at the time he’d:

    failed to grasp, however, the permanent change in economic power balance between physical manufacturing and distribution on the one hand, and the bankrollers, service bandits and Silicon oddball virtualists on the other. The latter group was about to quietly creep from behind and become – not the servants of business – but the entire point of the exercise in the first place.

    I still think this was a major turning point in the business of wealth creation. Spurred on by the euro currency believers, the rapid advance of “clever” tech effects, and the almost secret stealth of financial influence versus the old model of direct share ownership, the suspense of reality in favour of hype became not a passing phase, but yet another “virtual” reality to replace 3D physicality such as that recognised by our own species spectrum….however limited that is now recognised to be.

    https://therealslog.com/2022/10/09/credibility-censorship-complying-complaining/

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      John Ward is from the UK. He is writing about the unreal world we live in now. Later in the article, he mentions the difficulty of discussing any half-way controversial topic at the dinner table any more. Something is seriously wrong.

      • Dennis L. says:

        Death of religion?

        Mathematics seems to reflect some underlying reality of the universe while being totally abstract. Religion is basically the same, is seems to be self similar across various religions with local variations.

        Secularism is based on self, when the self becomes inconsistent with reality, it becomes confused and perhaps self destructive. I suspect this is responsible for all/much the angst and self hatred on college campuses.

        Our reality is shaped by marketing which is a quick fix, not unlike sex. After a while there are only so many variations and all are finite. Religion and mathematics are for all practical purposes infinite. Both can be used without being totally understood.

        Dennis L.

      • postkey
        postkey says:

        ” . . . he mentions the difficulty of discussing any half-way controversial topic at the dinner table any more. ”
        ‘He’ also ‘censures’ comments that don’t suit his ‘agenda’!

  5. Fast Eddy says:

    Record numbers of children are being hospitalized with colds after their immunity was weakened by social distancing and masks, CDC report reveals

    https://2ndsmartestguyintheworld.substack.com/p/the-psyop-19-effect-record-numbers

    hahahaha… the thing is … masks don’t stop viruses… nor does distancing…

    This is of course… VAIDS.

    VAIDS = Demon Covid? One and the same?

  6. Fast Eddy says:

    norm…https://t.me/TheHealthForumNZch/2175

    German Pathologists Present Autopsy Results of “Sudden Adult Death” Patients Post-Vaccination

    “The blood brain barrier can be crossed by the vaccine. And you can see that it’s the actual brain cells that produce the spike protein.”

    Clip: https://rumble.com/v1n8o60–german-pathologists-present-autopsy-results-of-sudden-adult-death-patients.html

  7. Global margin call hits European debt markets

    Hedges blow up after risk gauges in Germany’s government debt market exceeded those of the 2008 world crash

    NEW YORK – Risk gauges in Germany’s government debt market rose last week to levels higher than recorded in the 2008 world financial crash, as margin calls forced the liquidation of derivatives positions held by banks, insurers and pension funds.

    Big institutional investors that spent the past ten years insuring their portfolios against falling interest rates now face massive losses as hedges blow up. A key measure of market risk, the spread between German government bonds (Bunds) and interest rate swap agreements jumped above the previous record set in 2008.

    The cost of hedging German government debt with interest-rate options, or option-implied volatility, meanwhile rose to the highest level on record.

    The blowout in the euro derivatives market follows a near-collapse of the British government debt, or gilts, market, averted at the last minute by a 50 billion pound bond-buying spree by the Bank of England.
    https://asiatimes.com/2022/10/global-margin-call-hits-european-debt-markets/

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This is very worrying and very expected. Pension plans and insurers everywhere will be affected. I expect that banks writing derivatives may be affected as well.

      The article says,

      A portfolio manager at one of Germany’s largest insurance companies said, “It’s a global margin call. I hope we survive.”

      We are facing an energy problem, but a bit part of an energy problem is an un-repayable debt problem. Interest rates go us, and values of bonds go down. Stocks of companies tend to fall in value.

      • however large or small

        the critical part of any debt is access to and use of the necessary energy to convert into money to service that debt.

        that is how the debt-economy functions

        ultimately there is no other way

        • yes.

          good thing the flow of oil through the world economy is 4 billion gallons per day.

          is that too uncomfortably close to zero for you?

          it’s working for me.

          tonight.

          • david

            as has been pointed out numerous times on OFW–and elsewhere, it isn’t the volume of oil that’s the problem, it’s the cost of getting hold of it.

            Our current ‘civilised’ existence hinges on a single factor:

            The ‘surplus’ energy contained within fossil fuels, not fossil fuels per se.

            ie the ‘surplus’ left after we’ve extracted and used what we need for ‘essential’ living, food housing and so on.
            We burned that surplus to give us the high life. Flights to nowhere, dragging a ton of metal to buy a newspaper, fight world wars, and millions of other pointless activities.

            those times are over.

            oil costs too much to get hold of, the surpluses are no longer there.
            Unfortunately we are in denial of that. So we fool ourselves by creating increasing debt to mask reality. We borrow, using our kid’s future as collateral

            Oil surplus has become debt surplus.

            We do not have enough (cheap) oil to service that debt.

            I’ve tried to explain it here:
            https://extranewsfeed.com/the-american-dream-what-it-really-cost-9fab37c44b0b

        • Dennis L. says:

          Very clear, clean explanation.

          Dennis L.

      • Sam says:

        Yes as I have said before that pensions are what will really terrify the Americans as the baby boomer population is very, very, dependent on these. If we can’t keep growing the value of the companies we can’t keep the system going.

        • notice how there has been no news (that I’ve seen) of any pension funds becoming insolvent.

          it’s almost as if TPTB can actually duct tape these crises as they pop up.

          and it’s almost as if TPTB also understand how important pension funds are to “keep the system going”.

          you might ask, how is it that they can keep fixing these crises?

          by creating digital money out of thin air. (though this does create high inflation which hurts the average person, but they don’t care.)

          and you also might ask, how long do I think that they can continue to fix things with digital money?

          my wild guess is until the 2030s.

          surprised? 😉

          • money is like an elastic band

            you can stretch it to an indeterminate point–but the more you stretch it, the more painful it is when it snaps and hits your fingers

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Where is the plane wreckage norm? Nobody is interesting this repetitive rubbish…

              Explain what happened to the plane wreckage .. no bodies? no seats? no engines?

            • Curt says:

              I’d rather read Norman’s contributions than Eddy’s vitriol.

              Not that Eddy’s contributions are worthless – but the pure insults in between are worthless and do no service here.

              If you want to die a cynic – be aware that isn’t a nice death at all.

            • lol–thanks Curt

              i find it best to offer only humour as a response—it really is worth nothing more

              it’s just some kind of compulsive-obsessive disorder, that is uncontrollable.

    • “Global margin call hits European debt markets”

      while the headline is worded this way, the article is mostly about European debt problems, and not really about global margin calls.

      “It’s a global margin call. I hope we survive.”

      I hope they don’t survive.

      though it’s probably better in our short term self interest that they do survive.

      • UK>Swiss>Germany and then who’s next and when?

        I think TPTB will create digital money out of thin air to solve this temporary problem.

        my guess is that they will save the system from crashing THIS time.

        though it would be quite “exciting” if they failed.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        It’s looking like a Q4 Boom … lots of toxic stuff going down.

        Just when the MOREONS been thinking the Vid is over… hahaha.. as VAIDS drives this next wave it’s gonna smash their heads in ..

        I want them to suffer — smug pricks are celebrating what they believe is success.

  8. Rodster says:

    John Bolton the Warhawk extraordinaire is calling for the assassination of Putin and his Cabinet. He’s such a good Neocon and Warhawk. 🤓

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/watch-john-bolton-calls-putin-assassination-regime-change

    • Bolton wants a ‘man up’ approach to the world. That is OK, but he should not be surprised if other states then do the same to USA. What goes around tends to come around.

      Of course, Bolton wants to ‘moralise’ the situation such as that USA is the ‘good guys’ and they have the ‘right’ to assassinate the leaders of other countries, and they are the ‘bad guys’ who do not have the ‘right’ to do it back.

      Like ‘morality’ is some kind of hypnotism of the victim into passivity, ripe for an attack. Like cobras or something. ‘I put a spell on you, and now you are mine.’ Weird. Ironically, ‘all morality is will to power.’

      It is basically just gang warfare just like back in Anglo-Saxon times and elsewhere. The world does not really change, it just pretends to, with its ideological trappings. The world is what it is.

      • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
        Gail Tverberg says:

        “What goes around tends to come around.”

        I am afraid you are right.

    • Bam_Man
      Bam_Man says:

      Psychotic.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Good grief!

  9. banned says:

    The UKR could always call 1-800- pull it and utilize the incredible power of thermal expansion on Kerch! Seven hours or its free!

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/jhlg4pmoraLc/

  10. banned says:

    If we dont destroy our species with nuclear war or gene tampering the use of psychedelics by professionals is about to blow the doors off all existing psychotherapy disciplines. We have known for a long time the power of psychedelics and psycho stimulants in therapy and their potential to help with mental illness. MMDA used in experimental treatment of alcoholics provided a 80% success rate decades ago. Current success rates utilizing conventional treatment that is out of many peoples reach financially yields a 8% success rate with alcoholism. Societal taboos have prevented psychedelic use in treatment up until now. Uncontrolled experimentation with psychedelics is akin to handing a 12 amp power tool to a 2 year old. We just now are exploring what a trained mental health professional can do with psychedelics a couple of times in a persons life. This matches how older cultures used psychedelics once or twice in a humans life with oversight and guidance from someone familiar with the power and risks of the substances and how they were utilized for specific purposes. Like all fledgling disciplines the use of psychedelics in psychotherapy will have a learning curve. The risk is well warranted in many cases, veterans experiencing thoughts of suicide for instance.

    Widespread psychedelic therapy might even help us with our strong tendency to destroy ourselves with war. Its worth noting almost all psychedelics are naturally occurring substances or derived from such. Too little too late?

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      When there aren’t enough resources to go around, there seem to be a number of natural responses to the problem. Fighting is high on the list. I am afraid that psychedelics won’t fix the underlying problem.

    • sciouscience says:

      Vikings ate special fungi and became Berserkers. My neighbor revealed that the offensive line of his HS football team would eat fungi prior to each game. My uncle took the acid both in the Mekong delta and then back at home. I ate many types and invented this perplexing environment that you all inhabit. This class of drug will be used to usher humanity into.virtual worldby the governing body of Jedi Model Nudge Bots There will be no Board to approve nor certify these. They will metastasize.

  11. Adonis says:

    Two dead from our work area one was 48 the other 60 they were both vaccinated so two are dead from about 250 employees

    • reante says:

      One early middle-aged teacher dead at this janitor’s workplace, out of twenty employees. Partner woke up to find her dead in bed, out of the blue. I’m the only one unvaccinated. They make me come in only after all the kidz have left. Fine by me. They only gave me the job cuz they couldn’t find anyone else to legally clean toilets for a living. Their loss.

  12. Thierry
    Thierry says:

    I had an interesting conversation last night with a friend whose girlfriend lives in Dubai (she has a high position in a major company). She said that the Gulf emirs are no longer interested in Europe because the market is too small. They no longer want to sell fuel but plastics. In fact, they want to turn to Asia and flood Asia with plastics. They make their own refineries. Their aim is to sell more expensive products, which confirms Gail’s thesis that energy prices are too expensive for the consumer and not expensive enough for the producers.
    At the same time the gas stations here in France are getting emptier and emptier. In my company some trips have been cancelled because the employees could not find fuel.
    The Europeans don’t realize it yet, but nobody is interested in them anymore.

    • Xabier says:

      Fascinating, thanks. Interesting about the plastics strategy.

      Europe is an old tart, and the make-up doesn’t cover up much these days.

      At least in the last century powerful Americans had some respect, even love, for Western European culture, above all because America is a cultural desert with no history.

      Rich Arabs liked the whores, and bars, of course; but I suppose that can also be easily arranged for them in Asia….

      • drb753 says:

        It’s been a long time since the Gulf countries have started moving up the economic chain. Both UAE and Saudi Arabia produce more aluminum than the US for example. But I think there will be a large whore gap well into the future between Europe and Asia. Europe has all the west africans, the ukrainians, the estonians, a whole lot of south americans, not to mention the locals. It takes decades to build that type of whoredom.

        • Xabier says:

          English, the international language of, er, love.

          In a former bar-haunting incarnation, in the smarter parts of London, we used to enjoy spotting the escorts waiting for their fat Arabs to walk in.

          I can’t compare it to any other cities, but London certainly had a rich offering for those with deep pockets…..

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Super Snatch and norm are representative of Europe … burned out vaxxed up and incoherent …

        norm – the wreckage… the wreckage… photo please

    • banned says:

      Its often thought physical currency will become plastic as resource depletion hits. Plastics are oil derived… Whether you burn fossil fuels or make something out of them its unfortunately mostly a one shot deal.

    • Eeyores Enigma
      Jef Jelten says:

      Its not just plastics but the entire petrochemical industry which is tens of thousands of chemicals and is a huge part of just about everything. Middleeast and FF producers elsewhere are building out infrastructure to refine petrochemicals for added value to get a lot more money from much less FFs.

    • reante says:

      All emirs and no sheikhs by the sounds of it. They seem to have forgotten whose oil is under their feet. They’ll remember soon enough.

      Moving into value-added products during collapse? Now THAT’S organizational stupidity beyond the pale.

      The future is primary petroleum products and staple commodities. No highly processed foods, no unnecessary use of plastic whatsoever.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Europeans need to be able to buy more than food and energy supplies, to be real participants in the world market. I am afraid Europe is going to go the way of most of Africa in terms of being a market participant.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      They’ll be interested when a core country in Europe implodes.. cuz they’ll soon follow

  13. Tim Groves says:

    Lindsay Graham and John McCain
    Fanning the flames in Ukraine

    JordanSchachtel writes:
    “The Beltway class wanted to launch the Russia-Ukraine war in 2016, but then Trump got elected and it screwed up their plans.”

    https://twitter.com/JordanSchachtel/status/1578787525938016256?cxt=HHwWgMDTtfu4_egrAAAA

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Starting a war in Russia/Ukraine war seems to be an idea that has been around for a long time.

  14. Tim Groves says:

    In two years, Mike Yeadon has gone from being a self-described total normie to a fully red-pilled proponent of the “no Covid-19 virus” theory.

    These days, he admits there maybe something of that description in the lab, but it isn’t circulating in the wider world and what has caused the deaths and severe illnesses attributed to Covid-19 is a combination of the same old causes of colds, flu and pneumonia PLUS the fear and coercion campaign as well as misdiagnosis, mistreatment and neglect of the sick, and even a bit of state-mandated murder in the wards, with hospital morphine use in the UK going sky high in 2020 and 21.

    This is a 39-minute interview with Dr. Paul Alexander in which Mike lays it all out.

    https://vladtepesblog.com/2022/10/05/dr-mike-yeadon-new-video-with-dr-paul-alexander/

    • Tim Groves says:

      By the way, our long-term commenter Ed said, “It’s just the flu” two years ago. Where are you, Ed? You’ve won an OFW coconut.

      • gpdawson2016
        gpdawson2016 says:

        But, but…I saw them! Those little spikey critters dancing in mockery on our tv screens! They were real… weren’t they?!?

      • reante says:

        If the ‘covid 19’ doesn’t exist then the ‘flu’ doesn’t exist either. the ‘flu’ is just a major, structural detox, for when you’re daily detoxes (at night) haven’t been cutting the mustard and the fat-soluble toxins have built up. Like regen mode on the new diesel tractors, with flu you stop what you’re doing and run real hot for awhile so that your fat cells where the toxins are stored, can loosen from the heat and release the toxins for our enzyme complexes like the monooxygenases and mass apoptosis of cells that have become too intoxicated is triggered and the resident mostly dormant anaerobic microbiota leap into action and eat the toxic meat, turning the fat-soluble toxins into water-soluble forms that our body can deal with. Yet the germophobes see the toxic flush and the symptoms and say it’s the germs what done it, because wimps don’t like feeling shitty and don’t like taking their lumps when they deserve them. They’d rather hit the ‘regen inhibit’ button the tractor over and over again, with flu shots and NSAIDs until the chronic toxin load turns into chronic disease along one pathway or another, usually according to family fault lines. That’s the weak-ass allopathic culture for you, which can’t bear suffering; can’t bear, in its Separation Trauma, ecological cause and effect; the etymological meaning of allopathy is “beyond suffering,” which really just means beyond healing. Wetiko comes to mind.

        ‘Flu’ symptoms are secondary (after the primary daily detox/periodic headaches/natural minor hangovers) structural detoxes. ‘Colds’ also but those are more exclusively upper respiratory. As healings, they’re extremely important to endure. Of course people with still-good genetics who really take care of themselves rarely get them if ever, and people with poor genetic function can vastly heal their functioning with a lifetime of care, and pass those evolutionary earnings on, pay them forward, with vertical gene transfer.

        • JMS says:

          Reante, glad you haven’t given up commenting here. Keep up the good work.

        • drb753 says:

          There might be some truth to this argument, but then why is the flu season always in the cold months?

          • reante says:

            It is true, drb. They come in the cold months because we’re aerobic ecological creatures that breathe oxygen exhaled by vegetation. Winter is not just winter, it’s vegetative winter. The vegetation largely goes dormant. Even the evergreens slow way down above 40deg latitude. There’s less oxygen concentration for us to breathe, and that’s a stressor. There’s also less vitamin d sulfate from the sun which are powerful compounds for detoxification, a lot less sweating out of toxins, less exercise which increases throughput (flow) of everything including toxins. But vegetative winter is generally speaking the single biggest factor, especially if you live in the city. Summer oxygen levels in a windless city may be worse than vegetative winter year round if you’re surrounded by conifer forests like I am. And winter in the city considerably worse than that. And then add in elevated urban CO2 levels in a world with a 50pc elevated baseline level compared to the stable 280ppm level in which we evolved. And then add being indoors more. Being indoors a lot in the winter in the city in 2022 is not at all good for you.

            Always leave your windows open some, and more is better. just put more wood in the stove, and keep your wife/husband at bay as best you can!

            • drb753 says:

              Then, if your hypothesis is true, the worst time for the flu is in late winter, after 4 months of vegetative winter. But that is not the case. Flu waves often arrive in late fall. Vitamin D depletion is a factor for sure, but I have not heard of it being a detox agent.

            • drb, I have to admit that I thought here in northeast USA that flu was usually worse in late winter.

              what do you think of this whopper:

              “There’s less oxygen concentration for us to breathe, and that’s a stressor.”

              when is our air not 21% oxygen?

              that blows this theeeory for me, at least for now.

            • reante says:

              drb

              On the contrary. On the heels of the good times ecological aplenty of spring and summer and part of fall, if we are in need of a major (secondary) structural detox that puts us flat on our backs, then it is because we are having some serious issues with our health.

              We are 4B year old intelligent cultures of trillions of single-celled organisms in symbiosis, and that’s not including our microbiome which outnumbers us ten to one or whatever. The intelligence came entirely out of successfully patterning cause and effect in the ecology, and following that patterning wherever it leads.

              If we are in need of a major detox after times aplenty and we are entering winter then if you were 4B year old intelligence (and you are), when would you pull the trigger? Now or in February?

              Medium-term disease has tipping points into chronic disease. Chronic disease is devolutionary because it gets handed down to varying degrees. And chronic disease is difficult to claw back. It took me four years of a super nutrient dense clean diet and well water and country living to heal my family patterned thyroid. Now I’m working on my vision.

              Biology is forward looking. It lives for the future. The pregnant mother isn’t doing a ‘lifetime’ detox for the child in her womb. On the contrary, she’s doing it in spite of the child in her womb, and for her future children, because if she doesn’t do it then all of her children are progressively victim to her kicking her can of disease down the road.

              There’s civilizational thinking, and then there’s biological/ecological. The former tends to compound trauma, the latter heals from it.

            • reante says:

              david

              Our air is no longer the 21pc blanket approximation. Look it up. And start thinking.

            • reante says:

              drb

              Regarding vit d. You haven’t heard of it because much of allopathic ‘biology’ isn’t actually based on biology. It’s based on the profit motive. I know you know this already. Just like industrial farming isn’t biological farming. It’s based on the profit motive.

              You have to go into the cutting edge literature to find out, or read the holistic systems thinkers who make it their job to read the literature and put the pieces of the puzzle together. The functional medicine practitioners. And evil Russians like Natasha Campbell-Mcbride. Here’s a quote:

              Cholesterol is one of the most essential molecules in the human body. We can’t live without it. The vast majority of cholesterol in your blood doesn’t come from food, but is manufactured by your liver. The body requires a certain amount of cholesterol at every moment of your existence. All your steroid hormones, adrenal hormones, and sex hormones are made from cholesterol. Whenever you’re under stress and your adrenals need to produce cortisol and adrenaline, they call to the liver, ‘Hey, I need cholesterol!’ The liver manufactures cholesterol and sends it into your bloodstream to be delivered to the adrenals. So, every time you’re under stress, your blood cholesterol will be high. Don’t interfere with that, or you won’t be able to cope with stress. Indeed, many people who go on anti-cholesterol pills, such as statins, are unable to deal with stress. A large percentage of the brain is made out of cholesterol. On top of that, the brain requires a lot of cholesterol for the manufacture of neurotransmitters, hormones, enzymes, and other things. So your brain is very hungry for cholesterol and just mops it up from the bloodstream. When people go on anti-cholesterol pills, they start losing their memory. That is the major side effect of statins. A large percent of our Alzheimer’s disease epidemic is caused by statins. Cholesterol is a structural and functional element for the immune system. Every time your immunity is dealing with infections it will require larger amounts of cholesterol, and your blood cholesterol will be high. Interfering with it will impair your immune system, so it won’t be able to deal with the infection. Vitamin D, the sunshine vitamin, is made out of cholesterol. When we expose our skin to sun, cholesterol is converted to vitamin D. Without vitamin D we cannot live. When we’re sunbathing, another wonderful thing happens with both cholesterol molecules and vitamin D. Sulfur is captured from the air and attached to these molecules. The beauty of sulfated vitamin D and sulfated cholesterol is that they’re water-soluble.”

            • reante says:

              The link to the Natasha quote:

              https://www.ecofarmingdaily.com/interview-natasha-campbell-mcbride-on-gut-health/amp/

              just below the excerpt I quoted she continues on the matter of cholesterol and provides a warning regarding the use of statins. Word to the wise. As I recall you can go cold turkey on them except for one class of them.

            • air isn’t 21% oxygen!

              air isn’t 21% oxygen!

              look it up!

              this may backfire on me, but whatever.

              air isn’t 21% oxygen!

            • reante says:

              that’s pathetic david. you’re ‘flat-earthing’ the atmosphere like Eddy did the other day.

              there’s another reply to you drb that’s been sitting in purgatory. should be coming your way at some point.

            • am I short of breath this evening (I’m not) because there’s less oxygen in the air I’m breathing?

              the onus is on you to show proof that our air is somehow oxygen depleted.

              by the way, I’m a couple hundred feet above sea level.

            • okay I’ll quote your link:

              “Like most other scientists they accept that oxygen levels in the atmosphere in prehistoric times averaged around 30% to 35%, compared to only 21% today – and that the levels are even less in densely populated, polluted city centres and industrial complexes, perhaps only 15 % or lower.”

              thanks for confirming “21% today” on average.

              notice that scientific term “perhaps”?

              anyway, I take note that “perhaps” O is lower in the world’s worst places to live and work.

              I’ll stay away.

              thanks for confirming “21% today”.

            • DB says:

              Thank you, Reante. Although it stands to reason that oxygen should vary by season, epidemiologists seem to have ignored it. Here is a better source on seasonality of oxygen in the atmosphere (at the surface) and the trend during a brief period in the 1990s:
              https://bluemoon.ucsd.edu/publications/ralph/3_Seasonal.pdf

              Of course, biological “productivity” (amount and vigor of living organisms) varies by season and oxygen naturally has something to do with that (especially for aquatic life).

              I doubt that the seasonality has any noticeable impact on human health. If it did, then illness would be strongly correlated with visits, by lowlanders, to high elevation locations (e.g., vacations, including during summer). I’m not aware of any such association. The variation in oxygen levels (concentrations) by altitude is many orders of magnitude greater than that by season. The measure in the Nature article isn’t an absolute level of oxygen, but an indicator of change in oxygen’s ratio to nitrogen. I think it is tough to imagine a biological mechanism that is triggered by differences in such a ratio rather than changes in the absolute level of oxygen. The Nature indicator, though, surely is a function of the absolute level of oxygen, but just tiny changes (a small fraction of one percent) across the seasons.

            • reante says:

              david

              you ignored the big study altogether and criticized a layperson journalist for their lack of scientific language, by picking the most innocuous quote you could find, and then claimed the 21% average as your victory lap while ignoring that the winter average is obviously going to be lower than growing season average, and especially so in urban areas.

              Here’s a quote that you could have chosen instead:

              “In the view of Professor Ervin Laszlo, the drop in atmospheric oxygen has potentially serious consequences. A UN advisor who has been a professor of philosophy and systems sciences, Laszlo writes:

              Evidence from prehistoric times indicates that the oxygen content of pristine nature was above the 21% of total volume that it is today. It has decreased in recent times due mainly to the burning of coal in the middle of the last century. Currently the oxygen content of the Earth’s atmosphere dips to 19% over impacted areas, and it is down to 12 to 17% over the major cities. At these levels it is difficult for people to get sufficient oxygen to maintain bodily health: it takes a proper intake of oxygen to keep body cells and organs, and the entire immune system, functioning at full efficiency. At the levels we have reached today cancers and other degenerative diseases are likely to develop. And at 6 to 7% life can no longer be sustained.”

            • reante says:

              drb

              don’t mean to beat a dead horse but I realized that I cut off the relevant part of the Natasha quote regarding vitamin d sulfates as detoxifiers:

              “They can go into your bloodstream in seconds, directly, without special packaging. Science is discovering that sulfates of vitamin D and cholesterol are some of the body’s most powerful detoxifiers. So every time you sunbathe, you are cleansing in a powerful way; cancer cells are being destroyed in your body, toxins are being destroyed and removed.”

              Here’s a more in depth look at the topic if you’re interested:

              https://holisticprimarycare.net/topics/nutrition-a-lifestyle/sulfate-the-most-common-nutritional-deficiency-you-ve-never-heard-of/

            • Thierry
              Thierry says:

              Good work Reante. You are perfecly right about seasonality. The level of oxygen is a real taboo in science, I wonder why (/sarc). Apart from the health issue, oxygen is also important for the brain. Thanks for the links.

            • reante says:

              DB

              Thanks for the contribution. We’re getting into divination territory, here, which I don’t have a problem with (on the contrary), but I acknowledge that those who are more comfortable with sticking purely to data (whom I affectionately call Scientific Methodists) might refuse to go there. That said I think there is just enough data to sway the willing Methodists.

              Although I appreciate that it does confirm seasonality, the ‘problem’ with the data from your much appreciated link is that it’s based on a primitive sampling method that greatly flattens-out real-world dynamics. The three sample stations are all oceanside locations. The La Jolla station, as a fairly dense urban locale, is most relevant but it faces into the prevailing ocean winds. As we read in your link the dynamic oxygen equilibrium maintained at the air-sea interface is going to greatly flatten-out (moderate) the seasonal fluctuation at and presumably base it almost entirely on the ocean atmospheric conditions. The other two samplings are also oceanside and not urban environments.

              The Chinese study I linked to gives a much more realistic, systems analysi for spectacularly volatile, non-seasonal megacity oxygen concentration dynamics even though it doesn’t do raw oxygen data gathering which it turns out is not an easy undertaking at all, which I had no idea would be the case. As you say, they have to peg O2 to nitrogen. The local consumption-to-production model yields a much more dynamic picture. These cities are fucking black holes of oxygen consumption, sucking in hundreds and thousands of times the oxygen that is being produced there. And that sucking doesn’t draw-in oxygen from the periphery to automatically replace it. It has to be blown-in, or convected-in through tropospheric turnover (which is a longer process cycle than windcycles is my understanding). So in low-wind and windless stretches in these hellholes, oxygen levels crash, and toxic CO2 levels climb. As does air pollution. It’s a perfect storm.

              Regarding the divination of the degree of oxygen seasonality on disease, that beautiful little nugget at the end of page six in the Chinese study (I could not copy and paste it) did not go unnoticed by reante. I was very pleased when I saw it, lol. It mentioned the reason for the discrepancy in the two Beijing “oxygen deficit”
              calculations was that one was calculated in summer and one in winter. And the winter deficit was no less than double the summer deficit! In summer the Beijing bioregion was estimated to be consuming 160 times it’s production of oxygen and in winter it was consuming 330 times. Seems to me that our biology is going to sit up and take notice of seasonal swings like that. And in other cities the numbers are up in the thousands. And then as I said before the seasonal oxygen drop is culturally based too, people living indoors and closing their windows. It’s a perfect storm for an aerobic organism.

              What do you think? Agree or disagree?

            • reante says:

              Thanks Thierry. Feels like deja vu, like you’ve backed me up on this very topic before. I must be getting repetitive. 🙂

          • NomadicBeer says:

            The official explanation is that people tend to stay closer together in heated and humid places which provides best environment for microbes.

            This seems to apply to bacteria but I don’t know about viruses.

            I have to say I appreciate this debate (virus/no virus). I am starting from a strong “viruses exist” perspective, just based on my understanding of biology and evolution.
            But I definitely appreciate having this debate in the open. Plus you never know. 20 years ago I was convinced people landed on the moon and “terrorists” with box cutters destroyed buildings with planes (even buildings away from the impact). So you never know…

          • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
            Gail Tverberg says:

            Viruses seem to like cold weather. Alternatively, they like the low humidity of heated indoor air in poor weather, and the cracks in the skin that result.

    • JMS says:

      I think in the last two years most people here have gone from relative or complete trust in allopathic medicine/vaccines/ germ theory to relative or complete distrust. Fortunately for BigPharma there’s no shortage of gullible normies out there.

    • Student says:

      I’ve not watched the video, but my impression is that if Mike Yeadon (former Pfizer head of research and after all he has said at the beginning) if he has now decided to say so it is because he wants to get out of the radar and be considered a crazy cospiracist, in order avoid to a fierce vengeance on him and his family.
      – hey Mike, they are looking for you
      – really?
      – yes, they will find you at the end of the world.
      – what can I do?
      – pretend to be a clown

      • Fast Eddy says:

        In not so many words I’ve engaged MY and told him he’s wasting his time … he is extremely stressed out and this is affecting his health — he should get some bucket listing in .. blow some $$$…. he still does not accept that we are completely f789ed so continues the futile fight

    • Fast Eddy says:

      He goes deep into DelusiSTAN in the first 5 minutes… he is totally clueless.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      And btw – we has read Tim Morgan’s Perfect Storm in its entirety… I do not understand how he cannot connect the dots

  15. MG says:

    As the humans exhale CO2, the best way to fight the clmt chng is the depopulation.

    The humans and their devices consume O2 and discharge CO2.

    If the devices needed for sustaining the human population are switched off, the clmt chng problem of the humans will be solved.

    • Tim Groves says:

      Problem, clmt chng is not a bug of the Earth’s biosphere. It’s a feature.
      It’s as natural as the weather.

      • drb753 says:

        Also, anyway it takes a human some 7 years to exhale the CO2 equivalent to one barrel.

      • reante says:

        The anthropogenic destabilization of the climate is a first for the Earth’s biosphere. As Alan watts said, some things are more natural than others. Industrial terraforming is the latter, and it comes with long-term consequences.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          There certainly have been a lot of other destabilizations. They are pretty much expected. Any ecosystem is constantly changing, in a way that reacts as best possible to changing destabilizations. There is no reason for humans to feel bad about the current destabilization. I wonder if we would be back in an deeper ice age by now, if it weren’t for our emissions,

          • “I wonder if we would be back in an deeper ice age by now, if it weren’t for our emissions,”

            I have hypothesised this elsewhere too Gail. Not due to the thermodynamically absurd CO2 as toxin and heat blanket claims, but due to heat pump effects.

            Now, consider this – IF fossil fuel burning has delayed and masked a cooling earth, think about the compounding implications for Peak Fossil Fuel and the corresponding decline in heat flows … my, won’t THAT be a fun scenario on the way down.

            You and I are the only 2 that I have found that have even floated this idea (the immense burning of fossil fuels is unintentionally (?) masking a decline in global temperatures).

            • ice ages are about 100k years apart (that info is readily available)

              there’s little doubt that were it not for fossil fuel burning we would be tracking back into one, but that would take maybe 25k years for us to get there. In that 100k year span are numerous fluctuations in world temperatures.

              what we are in now is a period of heat anomaly, caused by FF burning, this started in the 1700s and and the effects of it are likely to have a 500 year span. Maybe more. ie perhaps to the 22/2300s.
              This has nothing to do with multi-000 years trends.

              It has everything to do with making Earth uninhabitable for human beings, at least in our current numbers.

              5000 year from now the Earth will have rebalanced itself.
              Whether that will be with or without us is anybodys guess, but it is unlikely to involve any kind of ‘modern’ (ie energy consuming) civilisation. It is pretty certain we won’t have powered wheels.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              And we were to be underwater by now… hahaha

              Why aren’t we norm?

              While you are at it where’s the wreckage?

            • Tsubion says:

              Not even a water wheel Norm?

            • forgot water wheels

              stick one on the back of ship–attach a steam engine to it, several hundred tons of coal and you can travel 000s of miles

              how remiss of me to forget that

              Thank you for pointing it out Tsubion

              Unless of course we had several hundred galley slaves turning cranks attached to the waterwheel–perhaps that would give a better EROEI?

            • reante says:

              Exactly, Norm. The geological warming phase may be at it’s peak but it’s gonna be awhile til the next ice age, and ice ages are natural dynamics in the dynamic equilibrium, anthropogenic forcing is not a part of that equilibrium so all bets are off as to the ecological fallout. Much like the nuclear problem.

              Rational Luddite

              I’ve yet to see a convincing argument that CO2 is not a ‘greenhouse’ gas. You’re welcome to try and convince me otherwise. Also curious what you mean regarding heat pump effect.

      • Eeyores Enigma
        Jef Jelten says:

        I don’t know why I bother but…If earth didn’t have CO2 in the atmosphere there would be no life. If earth has too much CO2 in the atmosphere there would be no life.

        Earths atmosphere has fluctuated quite a bit in its history and we know what happens with a good degree of accuracy.

        There are many natural sources of CO2 which is a good thing because that is how life exists on the planet. Human activity along with natural sources has pumped massive amounts of CO2 in to the atmosphere is a relatively short time. We know what happens. We have known what happens for over a hundred years. Scientist have shown that just adding small amount of CO2 increases retained heat. They did these experiments in the late 1800s. We release hundreds of other greenhouse gasses on a regular basis many are way more potent than CO2, some are 25,000 times more harmful.

        The planet is heating up, FACT! Most of it is being absorbed by the ocean which is not a good thing. The entire cryosphere of the planet is melting exponentially.

        Virtually everything that us 8 billion humans do spews massive amounts of pollution into the biosphere and that will only stop when they are all dead.

        • reante says:

          Right on Jef, with the caveat that it will only stop when civilization is dead. It’s a cultural problem and not an inherently human problem. We know this because 99pc of human generations — modern humans just like us physiologically (superior, actually, in many ways) — didn’t have that cultural problem. If that wasn’t the case there wouldn’t have been 150M buffalo roaming north America less than 200 years ago.

        • Agree totally. The only CO2 problem we have is that it’s precariously LOW, not too high.

    • Lidia17 says:

      Humans have displaced at least an equivalent mass of biological entities who used to be enacting that process (the millions of passenger pigeons once darkening the skies, for example). Oxidation is going to be happening one way or the other. We’re just one of many intermediaries for it.

  16. Fast Eddy says:

    Cheena https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/40444

    INCREDULOUSLY NEW SOUTH WALES FAST TRACKS AN MRNA VACCINE TO BE INJECTED INTO ITS CATTLE HERDS…

    Foot and Mouth Disease and Lumpy Skin Disease

    “Current FMD vaccines use the virus itself, and there is yet to be an approved vaccine for use in Australia for Lumpy Skin Disease, so creating mRNA vaccines to combat either disease would be a game-changer for the industry.

    “mRNA vaccines are cheaper and quicker to produce, HIGHLY EFFECTIVE AND VERY SAFE.

    “Because they are fully synthetic and do not require any animal or microbial products, they do not carry with them the same risks as traditionally derived vaccines.”

    What are the implications?

    What don’t we know…until we know it?

    What happens to the humans who eat the meat and drink the milk?

    https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/nsw-fast-tracks-fmd-vaccine

    • Student says:

      From the above NSW website:

      “The NSW Government has taken another step towards fast tracking the world first mRNA vaccines for Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and Lumpy Skin Disease, inking a deal with US biotechnology company Tiba Biotech.”

      Who is Tiba Biotech:

      “Tiba Biotech emerges from the university lab. Tiba raises its first round of seed capital, secures a research grant from the BILL & MELINDA GATES Foundation’s Livestock Vaccine Innovation Fund, and establishes a collaboration with colleagues at the United States Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases focused (USAMRIID).
      […]
      In parallel with completing a funded benchmarking study for the BILL & MELINDA GATES Foundation, Tiba completes an over-subscribed round of +$2M in funding from a group of individuals and international investors interested in supporting global health and rapid response vaccines.

      https://tiba.bio/history/

      • Student says:

        We could also say: experimentation efforts kindly offered by humans’ sacrifice will provide new gains in animal field…

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          LOL! Experiment first on humans.

    • Rodster says:

      I remember reading on a con-spira-see theory website that the Elite were planning on injecting mRNA vaccines into our food supply. Perhaps this validates the idea it may not have been a con-spira-see theory after all.

    • I AM THE MOB says:

      Your free to eat bugs!

      (sorry, can’t leave em hanging) 🙂

  17. Fast Eddy says:

    “Few have yet woken up to the full horror of Britain’s diminished situation” – The unvarnished truth, says Jeremy Warner in the Telegraph, is that lockdown costs in combination with today’s energy crisis have rendered Britain a whole lot poorer than it was. https://archive.ph/uOD4f

    “With hospitals cancelling routine operations due to a spike in Covid-19 infections, will an extra jab save the NHS or are too many people suffering vaccine fatigue?” – Professor Paul Hunter tells the Mail that “vaccine fatigue happens in every jab campaign, but this time around it looks more pronounced”.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11294521/Are-people-suffering-Covid-19-vaccine-fatigue.html

    “Desperate Hong Kong will give away 500,000 free flights in an attempt to attract tourists after Communist party’s draconian Covid restrictions drove visitors away” – Tourists will be offered free flights to Hong Kong in a bid to drive up visitor numbers, which have fallen by tens of millions a year since the pandemic, the Mail reports.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11294069/Hong-Kong-away-500-000-free-flights-worth-225milllion-bid-attract-tourists-post-Covid.html

    Might be due to having to wear a f789ing face diaper everywhere including at the beach

  18. Fast Eddy says:

    “Laura Aisbett will never forget the moment she discovered her husband’s body.

    New research shows cardiac arrest is a leading cause of death for Australians under 50, but many victims have no prior symptoms

    Researchers say the cardiac arrest death rate is more than five times the road toll in the same age group

    They say improved genetic testing could help to significantly lower the death rate

    Stuart was lifeless, face down on the floor, draped in the insulation mats he’d been installing in the ceiling of their shed, just metres from their newly-completed home.

    “I just remember as soon as I saw him, I just started screaming,” she said.
    “The screams woke me up, kept me awake for weeks, for months, afterwards. Even now, if I’m having a night terror, I’ll wake up screaming with visions of Stuart lying there.”
    Stuart had suffered a sudden cardiac arrest and couldn’t be revived.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-03/research-unexplained-cardiac-arrest-young-australians/101423248

    The HORROR

  19. Fast Eddy says:

    THE EXCESS MORTALITY IN AUSTRALIA FROM JANUARY TO JUNE 2022 IS THE EQUIVALENT OF A FULL JUMBO JET FALLING FROM THE SKY EACH WEEK…

    and nobody is interested in finding out why.

    Here in NZ we are in the same situation of unprecedented excess all cause (non covid) excess mortality, and “crickets” from our authorities and leaders

    https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/outsiders/govt-has-done-very-little-to-assuage-vaccine-fears/video/ca9cbbc08e2631c1563c5f10a9a7ec3f?

    Nice https://t.me/DowdEdward/1232

    “247% Increase in Cardiac-Related Deaths!”: Dr Mobeen Syed Reacts to New Florida Vax Data

    “That is a very interesting data point, and very concerning and very scary. My sons are in this age group — they both got mRNA vaccines.”

    https://rumble.com/v1n53wu-247-increase-in-cardiac-related-deaths-dr-mobeen-reacts-to-new-florida-vax-.html

  20. “One ring to rule them all.”

    Let us have a quick overview of the history of “kingship” in England to get some idea of its actual historical dynamic.

    Anglo-Saxon Britain had loads, indeed hundreds, of competing “kings”, who were basically warlords who constantly fought against each other to expand their lands. They were conquering warriors who subjugated the common folk into service and tribute in return for ‘protection’.

    That total conflict went on for centuries until a single warrior “king” emerged as triumphant, although Scotland, Ireland and the North of England were never subjugated.

    Soon after, the Vikings invaded, and Cnut took over. Then the Normans invaded and took over England, and that was the end of the Anglo-Saxon “kings” and “nobles”, nearly all of whom were deposed and entered the peasantry.

    Much later, Dutch royals invaded Britain, with the support of parliament, and took the crown from the Stuarts.

    So, the basic dynamic was that of all out warrior conflict, subjugating the common folk for ‘protection’, until only one “king” prevailed – who was then defeated and replaced by “kings” from abroad on a number of occasions. The bourgeois parliament later took over power from the “nobles” anyway.

    Basically gang warfare and protection rackets…. “noble kings”….

    > The Anglo-Saxons, Wiki, extracts only

    …. In the last half of the 6th century, four structures contributed to the development of society; …. the smaller tribal areas coalescing into larger kingdoms, the elite developing from warriors to kings

    …. By the end of the sixth century, larger kingdoms had become established on the south or east coasts.[68]

    By the end of the sixth century, the leaders of these communities were styling themselves kings, though it should not be assumed that all of them were Germanic in origin. The Bretwalda concept is taken as evidence of a number of early Anglo-Saxon elite families. What Bede seems to imply in his Bretwalda is the ability of leaders to extract tribute, overawe and/or protect the small regions, which may well have been relatively short-lived in any one instance. Ostensibly “Anglo-Saxon” dynasties variously replaced one another in this role in a discontinuous but influential and potent roll call of warrior elites.[70]

    …. By 660, the political map of Lowland Britain had developed with smaller territories coalescing into kingdoms, and from this time larger kingdoms started dominating the smaller kingdoms. The development of kingdoms, with a particular king being recognised as an overlord, developed out of an early loose structure that, Higham believes, is linked back to the original feodus.[78]

    …. Although Penda does not appear in Bede’s list of great overlords, it would appear from what Bede says elsewhere that he was dominant over the southern kingdoms. At the time of the battle of the river Winwæd, thirty duces regii (royal generals) fought on his behalf. Although there are many gaps in the evidence, it is clear that the seventh-century Mercian kings were formidable rulers who were able to exercise a wide-ranging overlordship from their Midland base.

    Mercian military success was the basis of their power; it succeeded against not only 106 kings and kingdoms by winning set-piece battles,[81] but by ruthlessly ravaging any area foolish enough to withhold tribute.

    …. In these accounts there is a rare glimpse of the realities of early Anglo-Saxon overlordship and how a widespread overlordship could be established in a relatively short period. By the middle of the 8th century, other kingdoms of southern Britain were also affected by Mercian expansionism. The East Saxons seem to have lost control of London, Middlesex and Hertfordshire to Æthelbald, although the East Saxon homelands do not seem to have been affected, and the East Saxon dynasty continued into the ninth century.[84]

    …. During the 9th century, Wessex rose in power, from the foundations laid by King Egbert in the first quarter of the century to the achievements of King Alfred the Great in its closing decades…. In 829, Egbert went on, the chronicler reports, to conquer “the kingdom of the Mercians and everything south of the Humber”.[95] It was at this point that the chronicler chooses to attach Egbert’s name to Bede’s list of seven overlords, adding that “he was the eighth king who was Bretwalda”.[96]…. and in the late 870s King Alfred gained the submission of the Mercians under their ruler Æthelred

    …. The wealth of the monasteries and the success of Anglo-Saxon society attracted the attention of people from mainland Europe, mostly Danes and Norwegians. Because of the plundering raids that followed, the raiders attracted the name Viking

    …. In particular, the army which arrived in 865 remained over many winters, and part of it later settled what became known as the Danelaw. This was the “Great Army”, a term used by the Chronicle in England and by Adrevald of Fleury on the Continent. The invaders were able to exploit the feuds between and within the various kingdoms and to appoint puppet kings, such as Ceolwulf in Mercia in 873 and perhaps others in Northumbria in 867 and East Anglia in 870.[95] The third phase was an era of settlement; however, the “Great Army” went wherever it could find the richest pickings, crossing the English Channel when faced with resolute opposition, as in England in 878, or with famine, as on the Continent in 892.[95]

    …. During the course of the 10th century, the West Saxon kings extended their power first over Mercia, then into the southern Danelaw, and finally over Northumbria, thereby imposing a semblance of political unity on peoples

    …. When Athelflæd died, Mercia was absorbed by Wessex. From that point on there was no contest for the throne, so the house of Wessex became the ruling house of England.[106]

    …. However this legislation also reveals the persistent difficulties which confronted the king and his councillors in bringing a troublesome people under some form of control. His claim to be “king of the English” was by no means widely recognised.[110] The situation was complex: the Hiberno-Norse rulers of Dublin still coveted their interests in the Danish kingdom of York; terms had to be made with the Scots, who had the capacity not merely to interfere in Northumbrian affairs, but also to block a line of communication between Dublin and York; and the inhabitants of northern Northumbria were considered a law unto themselves. It was only after twenty years of crucial developments following Æthelstan’s death in 939 that a unified kingdom of England began to assume its familiar shape. However, the major political problem for Edmund and Eadred, who succeeded Æthelstan, remained the difficulty of subjugating the north.[111]

    …. The reign of King Æthelred the Unready witnessed the resumption of Viking raids on England, putting the country and its leadership under strains as severe as they were long sustained. Raids began on a relatively small scale in the 980s but became far more serious in the 990s, and brought the people to their knees in 1009–12, when a large part of the country was devastated by the army of Thorkell the Tall. It remained for Swein Forkbeard, king of Denmark, to conquer the kingdom of England in 1013–14, and (after Æthelred’s restoration) for his son Cnut to achieve the same in 1015–16.

    …. After the defeat of the English in the Battle of Assandun in October 1016, Edmund and Cnut agreed to divide the kingdom so that Edmund would rule Wessex and Cnut Mercia, but Edmund died soon after his defeat in November 1016, making it possible for Cnut to seize power over all England.[120]

    …. In the 11th century, there were three conquests: one by Cnut in 1016; the second was an unsuccessful attempt of Battle of Stamford Bridge in 1066; and the third was conducted by William of Normandy in 1066.

    …. The fall of England and the Norman Conquest is a multi-generational, multi-family succession problem caused in great part by Athelred’s incompetence. By the time William of Normandy, sensing an opportunity, landed his invading force in 1066, the elite of Anglo-Saxon England had changed, although much of the culture and society had stayed the same.

    …. Following the Norman conquest, many of the Anglo-Saxon nobility were either exiled or had joined the ranks of the peasantry.[127] It has been estimated that only about 8% of the land was under Anglo-Saxon control by 1087.[128] In 1086, only four major Anglo-Saxon landholders still held their lands…. Some Anglo-Saxon nobles fled to Scotland, Ireland, and Scandinavia.[130][131] The Byzantine Empire became a popular destination for many Anglo-Saxon soldiers, as it was in need of mercenaries.[132] The Anglo-Saxons became the predominant element in the elite Varangian Guard, hitherto a largely North Germanic unit, from which the emperor’s bodyguard was drawn and continued to serve the empire until the early 15th century.[133]

    …. The inhabitants of the North and Scotland never warmed to the Normans following the Harrying of the North (1069–1070), where William, according to the Anglo Saxon Chronicle utterly “ravaged and laid waste that shire”.[136]

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The need for “protection” seems to have been a long-term need of humans, especially when there really weren’t enough goods and services to go around. I have heard stories about groups wanting to live on high ground, rather than in fertile valleys where farming likely would have been better, simply to be able to better observe the possibility of oncoming attacks by others. Castles are often built in high places.

      • That is largely borne out in Britain. The Anglo-Saxons and their “kings” took most of lowland Britain, but they are unable to take the hillier North of England or the more mountainous Wales and Scotland (at least for a time), nor could the Normans. They remained largely Gaelic speaking until quite recently.

        Humans are both predator and prey to each other, both master and servant, and that often largely frames the social dynamic. It is what it is. Stratification, exploitation, and even aggression are largely dressed up with ideology, and they have been for a long time, but that does not really change the fundamental dynamic. No one is expecting “equality” anytime soon.

        As you say, literal physical high ground can be more important, push come to shove, than the figurative moral ‘high ground’, which is imaginary anyway and certainly no guarantee of anything. There is a certain luxury to sitting above humans and their dramas and BS narratives, although as you say, the land can be more hospital, at least for a time, down below – until the warriors turn up.

        So, there is some choice there, although the highlands can be pretty turbulent and violent too. Further back, the Scoti tribe from NI did take the Scottish highlands, hence the name and the genetic and cultural affinities with Ireland. And the Scottish clans were archetypically warriors. So, it can vary up high too! But there perhaps does tend to be more genetic continuity in higher lands, as Britain and also the Caucasus region suggests.

  21. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/large-explosion-destroys-part-key-bridge-linking-russia-crimea-zelensky-aide-says

    “Declaration Of War Without Rules”: Russian Officials Fume Over Crimea Bridge Blast As Ukraine Celebrates

    this is a good read about “the bridge” and what might be coming next:

    “By all appearances, Putin is preparing for greater escalation in the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, and after weeks of reports and indicators that Russian lines are being rapidly pushed back in the east and south amid the major Ukraine counteroffensive. On Saturday a new overall commander for Russian forces in Ukraine has been announced. “Russia has appointed a notorious general who opened fire on pro-democracy protesters in the 1990s as its first overall commander for the war in Ukraine, as the Kremlin struggles to halt a Ukrainian counteroffensive that has left its forces in disarray,” The Guardian writes.

    “The appointment of Gen Sergei Surovikin came on the same day as Vladimir Putin was dealt a humiliating blow after an explosion on the Kerch bridge sank a section of the motorway into the Kerch Strait and caused a major fire on the railway,” the publication confirmed. “Surovikin is a veteran commander who led the Russian military expedition in Syria in 2017, where he was accused of using ‘controversial’ tactics including indiscriminate bombing against anti-government fighters.”

    remember this name: Sergei “Gloves Off” Surovikin.

    how many Ukrainian bridges will blow up this week?

    • Rodster says:

      Either this whole thing is staged for a takedown of the current world order to bring on the Great Reset or Putin and the Kremlin are totally incompetent. If they truly are incompetent, the West will overrun Russia. It is plainly obvious to any outsider looking in that Russia and Putin are not fighting just Zelensky and Ukraine.

      They are fighting a Proxy War with the West and more importantly the Neocons in the US Government who started this in 2014 and want to destroy Russia, then move onto North Korea and finally China. It’s called World Domination.

      • banned says:

        Its actually the opposite of incompetence to realize the first domino tipped has the potential to knock over the whole chain. The possibility that Russia is playing the bad guy in a kabuki theater play of the “great reset” might well be truth. Or not. At least if they are we will not cause our own extinction. I dont think Russia is in on it. I belong a human am easily fooled with hopes and dreams.

      • NomadicBeer says:

        I lean towards the hypothesis that this is just a big theatre production (with real deaths of course, see other psyops in the past).

        But there is definitely a possibility that Putin and Russia are even stupider than the american neocons. From the vaccine mandates to giving Europe free oil and gas to now losing a war (sorry SMO) because they didn’t bother to get soldiers and refuse to take off any infrastructure – it looks just ridiculous.

        Here is a question for Putinistas: why didn’t Putin learned from the Americans? US empire thrived for decades using a well documented playbook of regime change, divide et impera and infrastructure destruction.

        Putin could bring Europe to its knees simply by stopping all oil and gas exports (including 3rd party resell) and sabotaging a couple of gas/oil reservoirs. It would take 24h and it would save many innocent Russian and Ukrainean lives.

    • Xabier says:

      ‘Indiscriminate bombing of….fighters’.

      Oh, so they mean that he waged effective war against an opposing army? Shocking news.

    • banned says:

      The next escalation will be with non nuclear new technology or non nuclear existing technology used in a new way. It may be used in a way that can not be directly linked to the power struggle occurring, extreme weather events for instance so as to avoid loss of face that requires a world ending escalation. As the combatants reveal secrets pulled out of their pandoras box there may be pauses as countermeasures are developed. Hope springs eternal.

  22. Fast Eddy says:

    CDC & NIH says NOW you get the 5th shot or 3rd booster, which is the new bivalent booster (Wuhan legacy strain spike and the BA.4/BA.5 sub-variant spikes); used 8 mice, failed study & now re-infected

    https://palexander.substack.com/p/cdc-and-nih-says-now-you-get-the

    Excellent – more deaths … more injuries… love it… can’t wait!

  23. kulmthestatusquo
    kulmthestatusquo says:

    I admire Dennis’ undying optimism, although it doesn’t seem to have a base in fact. Elon Musk promised travel to Mars by 2022

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/musk-aims-for-mars-cargo-trips-by-2022-1.664077

    But he (and, by corollary, his mythical , alleged ‘whiz kids’ ) postponed the deadline to 2029 recently.

    Today’s problem is an amalgamation of the problems which accumulated for years, which are unlikely to be solved by writ or declaration.

    Nukes or not is not the main issue. The problem being ultimately solvable or not is the issue and I don’t think the structure problems are solvable.

    All which can be done is to cut off about 80% of the world’s pop off and restore draconian, totalitarian controls leaving nothing for the general population.

  24. kulmthestatusquo
    kulmthestatusquo says:

    (About NomadicBeer’s remark about Augustus killing his opponents including Caesar’s son Caesarion)

    So how did it work for Augustus’ own clan?

    Gus’ dynasty died off after three generations, but not before producing such wonderful individuals such as Caligula and Nero. Out of the 5 Emperors in the so-called Judeo-Augustan dynasty, only these two had something to do with Gus; Tiberius was his stepson, and Claudius was his step-grandson.

    In a sense Gus destroyed his own meal ticket by destroying the class where he came from.

    And, about Xabier’s comment on Fernando and Isabel not destroying the Moriscos, the latter were very, very important for conquering the New World. They were eager to run away from the inquisistors, and the arid, desert climate suited them quite well, especially in Mexico and what later became USA.

    So the Moriscos did contribute to the Spanish conquest of new world a lot.

    Every action has consequences. With the end of Nero, the old Roman tradition died off forever, and Vespasian came from Umbria, no longer part of Latium. (The town where he was supposedly born was later incorporated into Lazio because historians didn’t want to say that Latium lost power that quickly)

    Because Gus killed most of his class.

  25. Dennis L. says:

    I have read Ziehan’s book and find it positive and reason for hope. BUT, he is so damn certain and as some of you know, I am always skeptical of certainty.

    Below is one of his latest clips.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6I363uSKyAw

    This stuff is easy to check, from what I see trains are running and cars using the bridge which blew up. Also apparently Nordstream II will work.

    This mess is not over until the fat lady sings. Easy one to check as time goes on, I don’t think it will go nuclear. It seems the West is trying to commit economic suicide, strange world we live in.

    Dennis L.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The current story keeps developing. We don’t really know what is next. Financial problems do seem to be high on the list of things ahead, however.

  26. Dennis L. says:

    One for Eddy, affirmation as always:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/florida-surgeon-general-recommends-against-mrna-covid-19-vaccines-males-aged-18-39

    This is by the Surgeon General of FL according to the article.

    For those of us who sucked it up and risked sure death from the Vid, it is affirmation of our choice. Hard to know who to believe let alone make decisions on anything of importance.

    Dennis L.

  27. banned says:

    Ill tell you what Norman you do you best to avoid your dishonest behavior- exaggerating arguments- characterizing arguments – playing victim-and simply keep things issue based until the Chinese new year and I will never mention 911 again. I think this is a very generous offer. I am self censoring for all eternity and all I ask in return is behavior that helps this forum and only for a finite period of time. Surely a wordsmith such as yourself doesnt need the course and dishonest tools I am asking you to temporarily stop using? Look at it as a opportunity to explore a diferent style. Im not asking you to self censure or not use sarcasm I wouldnt dream of it but im asking you to change your behavior to somthing a little more fair- just for a bit. Your daggers and karambits wont rust in that short period of time. Who knows you may even find those old tools and techniques boring after you stop using them for a bit. What say you? Deal?

  28. Mac
    Agamemnon says:

    I’m not sure if this alleviates meltdown of spent fuel but as the energy crisis worsens I think there will be an attempt to ramp nuclear no matter the risk.
    There’s no alternative.
    (Maybe the population will be half when this occurs)

    From energy skeptic article below:
    NRC’s first look at the academies report “did not identify any safety or security issues that would require immediate action,” says spokesperson Scott Burnell in Washington, D.C. The agency has long mulled whether to compel the nuclear industry to move most of the cooled spent fuel in densely packed pools to concrete containers called dry casks, which would reduce the consequences and likelihood of a spent fuel fire. As recently as 2013, NRC concluded that the projected benefits do not justify the roughly $4 billion cost of a wholesale transfer. But the benefits of expedited transfer to dry casks are fivefold greater than NRC has calculated, the academies found. “NRC’s policies have underplayed the risk of a spent fuel fire,” Lyman says.

    The academies panel recommends that NRC “assess the risks and potential benefits of expedited transfer.” Burnell says that NRC’s technical staff “will take an in-depth look” at the issue and report t

    • banned says:

      Harry Reids veto of a Nevada storage facility ended hope for some sort of cost effective mitigation of the spent fuel risk. The WIPP facility in New Mexico is for military waste only with barrels of unknown substances that smoke Geiger counters showing up from places like Hanford- often with multi hazard properties like explosion. A nice little cave in Nevada bedrock for the spent fuel sure would have been nice. Ill never understand.

      • banned says:

        The guys that work at the WIPP facility are true heros. Talk about a challenging HAZMAT environment! Like it or not this stuff exists, its beyond deadly and those guys deal with trying to keep it contained. They take personal responsibility for the worst of industrial civilization.

  29. Fast Eddy says:

    You tell me what they have to protect themselves with? I only think nasal-oral washes. Nothing else and reports are that the pneumonia and sequelae is aggressive in the ‘elderly elderly. I plead, guard your elderly elderly, they are in a very vulnerable position for they want to come out to play now after 2.5 years but lockdowns have damaged an already immuno-senescenced immune system. And the COVID injection does nothing for them, negative efficacy and causes them to become infected and get ill.

    In other words, our elderly elderly are in a worse situation due to lockdowns, as we weakened an already weak immune system. Their older and more weaker immune system to OMICRON TODAY, is like their immune system to the initial Wuhan, 2.5 years ago, same thing. IMO.

    https://palexander.substack.com/p/could-spike-in-covid-19-cases-across

    The sicker they get (due to booster induced VAIDS) the more they boost… right norm?

  30. Fast Eddy says:

    Inner Mongolia scrambles to stop Covid cases spreading to China’s capital

    The autonomous region imposes lockdowns in some areas as infections – most of them asymptomatic – mount

    With a week to go until the Communist Party’s national congress, officials ordered to prevent spillovers to Beijing

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3195290/inner-mongolia-scrambles-stop-covid-cases-spreading-chinas?module=lead_hero_story&pgtype=homepage

    Hahaha .. asymptomatic … oh as in they don’t have covid but they use a BS PCR test to drive the numbers up … hahaha what a joke

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      This is still a high number of cases for China:

      The autonomous region reported 637 new cases on Saturday – the highest total among the country’s provincial administrations, most of them asymptomatic.

      Authorities are locking down many parts of Hohhot, Ulanhot and Hulunbuir, and mandating mass testing and quarantine in Baotou and Chifeng to ensure no disruptions to the Communist Party’s twice-a-decade congress, which starts next weekend in Beijing.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      According to twitter:

      AFU reports failures in the work of Elon Musk’s Starlink at the front, which greatly prevents them from winning on the battlefield.

      Some of the outages have led to “catastrophic” communication losses in recent weeks, writes the Financial Times.

  31. The End of Progress becoming more mainstream – Morgoth channelling Uncle Ted, Kunstler (too much magic), Chad Haag (deep meme of the upward ascending arrow of progress), and Greer (better to collapse now slowly, rather than fall from the heights all at once), and Ellul … whether he knows it or not.

    Wonderful metaphor too of the elephants on stilts:

    https://morgoth.substack.com/p/the-west-an-elephant-on-stilts

  32. drb753 says:

    I just watched Alex Mercouris state that the damage to the Kerch bridge is easily repairable. Man, all these western pro-russian commentators have serious holes in their game. I say it is a few months repair.

    • NomadicBeer says:

      It’s weird how easy it is for people, once they chose a side, to drop reasoning completely and switch to an emotional robot.

      I think this is a good substack on Russia that is not all mindless pro-Putin:
      https://edwardslavsquat.substack.com/

      See his latest about the enforced vaccinations in Russia and the vax deaths.
      Also mentions articles from the Ministry of Defense of Russia worrying about the failures of Russian SMO.

      But the best is this one: https://edwardslavsquat.substack.com/p/the-ones-we-should-be-fighting-will.

      It turns out that oligarchs in both Russia and Ukraine are working together perfectly fine, getting richer, while the proles are sent home in a box. So tell me who are the good guys?

      • CTG says:

        With reference to NomandicBeer’s comment on vaccines deaths in Russia and my on the 4 major types of people (sheep, antipodal sheep, don’t care and two-minded), most, if not all of us are going towards sheep or antipodal sheep.

        Gonzalo Lira, Mercouris and others who are writing about Russia, including Edwardslavsuat that Nomandic Beer mentioned. How real are they? Reinmich, the lawyer who is suppose to bring lawsuits, Kirsch who has a lot of money and can do wonders (like setting up his own tech company), Desmet (mass formation) who might not be real and many more. Are they real? In the minds of antipodal sheep, they want to believe they are real but they believed some of them are controlled opposition.

        Like the philosophical concept of “if the tree falls in the forest and no want was there to hear it, did it fall?”, there were no reported deaths due to vax in Russia/China, so it never happened? Did they even vax their citizens?

        We don’t believe the GDP numbers or the employment numbers but we gladly embrace the data that comes out from hospitals or other sources that supports that people are dying in droves from vaccines.

        Whether the person is sheep or anti sheep, no one questions anything anymore, they believe what they want to believe, the number of people who are two minded is so low that it is non-existent anymore, even on OFW. Homo sapiens are done.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          This is the biggest psyop in the history of the world… and it is imperative that it succeeds… we know they use actors/flunkies all the time (remember the doctors who certified that smoking was healthy hahaaha)….

          They’d have the most sophisticated false players involved in this one… the best of the best

          So who can know who’s real and who’s not

        • Tim Groves says:

          There are more questions than answers……

        • Xabier says:

          Intuition is our best guide now, Artleads has always been keen on that like me. (Hope you are well, Artleads! )

          It’s saved my life in the past, several times.

          It made me realise the vaxxes were evil when I had no respectable proof to show.

    • Dave G says:

      Perhaps that long for full repair and vehicle traffic, but meanwhile today (Oct. 8) rail traffic already has resumed, apparently some highway traffic as well.

    • banned says:

      Well if it was really a truck bomb rather than mil grade ordnance package delivered all that pressure really isnt effective. It needs to be right on the columns with some burrowing before detonation to really do some work. I can easily believe it was minimal damage if it was a truck bomb.

      Those columns must be down to bedrock underwater. Really a underwater demolition of structure would seem to be the ticket if undetected. Kerch would be DOWN then. Im glad its not. Maybe Russia doesnt have to do something radical to save face. I was flat out scared earlier today.

    • ivanislav says:

      Rail is already going again, only one side of the bridge was affected and some traffic is flowing again. That’s my understanding according to RT.

      • drb753 says:

        I get that rail was not affected. But the traffic now is cars only, one way with workers directing traffic, and the other span is in the water. Plus there were victims in the explosion. And he did not even mention Zhaporhizhia, which is bombed continuously with the nuclear plant in some trouble. And I think Alex is the best of that group, with at least a shred of independence.

  33. CHIEF ANALYST WITH GERMAN MEDIA OUTLETS REPORTS SOME VERY DISTURBING NUKE FALSEFLAG EVIDENCE
    https://www.bitchute.com/video/Mfz1CWXL3ix1/

    • Rodster says:

      Hmmm and the US is buying up radiation medicine. I do hope this all goes Hell on Earth nuclear. Hoomans are too damn stoopid. Let’s see as the Elite cower in their multimillion dollar bunkers, popping champaign and eating filet mignon. They eventually will have to leave their little underground paradise to a smoldering global wasteland, with no one to boss around. It should be fun watching the expressions on their faces when they utter, Oh Sh*t !

    • reante says:

      Fun political theater. The Pakistani and German links interest me. Taking it at face value, obviously Russian is aware of all this chatter, and the German connection would have provided plenty of motive for the nordstream affair. Just sayin. And Pakistan, it’s always been a thorn in the side of the Horsetrading Theory of Everything. Never known quite what to do with it. If it were to be implicated in a nuclear scandal of this magnitude, and seeing as how ISI in in the pocket of CIA,it would be cause to have Pakistani nukes confiscated (like how nukes will be removed from Israel too) which would leave her toothless and free up considerable oil to be allocated elsewhere. Tulsi Gabbard’s commonalities with Hindu nationalism dovetail nicely in this regard.

    • Banned says:

      ” IAEA Director General claimed that some 30 tonnes of plutonium and 40 tonnes of enriched uranium are stored at Zaporozhye nuclear power plant.”

      So my dumbass understanding is this is why Russia took Zapor so quick and those materials are now in Russia. A rather lucrative snag. Those nuclear reactors at Zapor dont run off of dried banana peels. So why would UKR need to mess around with Pak uranium? You would think UKR would have moved some of that stash a little west with Russia assembling its troops in the early months of this year.

      Isnt the IAEA director general somewhat of a knowledgeable source on this topic?

      And what the hell does my girl Tulsi have to do with this?

      If they want this thing lit it will get lit.

      Turkey will want a fleet of gold plated f-35s to agree to article 5.

      No one in NATO has the energy for a conventional war. They are going to skip the foreplay and get straight to the WMDs. Im not sure they are even going to mess around with article 5.

      It happens soon. Its year of the tiger. 23 is year of the rabbit it wont go down then. We wont make it to 24 year of the dragon.

      • Dennis L. says:

        Banned:
        Said in jest, probably more real than not. No one wants a fleet of f-35’s. Even if a gift the maintenance will kill you along with the incredible support costs.

        Not an expert, haven’t been there, no YouTube videos on the ground action, but have read reports Russians simply drop so man artillery rounds they drive the opposition nutz. If that is true, mass production of loud, dangerous junk beats the high tech stuff which no one can afford to shoot.

        Always the optimist, my guess is no nukes and in 2024 we will all be here solving the next crisis.

        Dennis L.

      • reante says:

        Banned

        The man in the video was talking about current chatter which, assuming it’s credible, suggests that the Russian control of Zapor and the inspector’s finding is a separate matter, no?

        Besides, the uranium and plutonium at Zapor would just be reactor grade, right?

        Your girl Tulsi is the chosen one. The next and probably last POTUS. Some might say the antichrist. Sounds like you have something to look forward to. 🙂

        • banned says:

          The anti-christ label is much like the hitler label. How can you have a reasonable dialogue after that? Its a discussion ender. The idea of the anti-christ that a ultimate deciever will arrive is a idea that I believe could have truth. In a way the anti-christ idea is related to “to good to be true”. We humans are easily deceived. I do believe we are creations of god and have abilities, common sense, rhyme. reason, intuition. We were not given our abilities to just cower in fear of the anti christ.

          Myself I dont think Tulsi is too good to be true. She is actually far too liberal for my liking. My personal set of prejudices. While Tulsis liberal tendencies are not attractive to me I believe that if we are to end the threat divisiveness and still maintain our principles of freedom individuals must seek the middle ground. There are times you have to give for the common good.

          She is a veteran having been to war. She had the courage to go to Syria as we tried to topple it in a “Arab spring” and interact with the people of Syria. She is critical of the MIC and warmongers and the USA regime change actions. She has had the courage to call out her own party on its warmongering- unheard of. She says she finds the divisiveness to be the greatest threat to the USA. She speaks of “for the people by the people” a idea that seems to be out of favor. She exercises and enjoys her body and the outdoors. It would be nice to have a leader who appreciates the beauty in this world and not just power.

          I agree with all those things. As far as I know she is the only leader openly advocating those things. Is it gods will that I abandon my perceptions and reasoning because of fear of the antichrist? I think not. Fooled again? Perhaps. We do know that the opposite is not true. Those leaders advocating war and money creation for war are not going to act otherwise. Thus those advocating actions we agree with is our only hope. Humans expression is in their word. In liu of demonstrated actions it is all we have to go on. WE have some DEMONSTRATED ACTIONS with Tulsi, far more than in most leaders in addition to her words.

          Which is more likely that Tulsi is the antichrist the ultimate deceiver or that label is being applied by those who wish her to not become popular?

          Hollywood “star wars” propaganda aside its time we tried a female leader one that truly represent the mother our planet. The males have had their shot and I am not pleased with what they have created nor do I hate them I am one and very male. It may be our qualities are not best suited for leadership. Sex alone obviously not a good reason to choose a leader. still…

          The USA once represented something that had the whole worlds respect. To get respect one must give respect. We have that capability as a function of for the people and by the people. It requires a change of course to the fundamental principles (albeit with birth pains) of valuing the people not the masters. What that means is of course a very divisive subject one often used as the basis for injustice. IMO to abandon that task of finding the common good is not what god intended for us.

          The implication that someone will “look forward” to the antichrist is a argument that is neither fair or honest. That label which is of the tongue can be applied to any leader for the purpose of sabotage. Why are you engaging in that behavior? What is your fear?

          • reante says:

            banned

            Appreciate all that. I meant no harm. I obviously don’t see Tulsi as the antichrist. But my patterning tells me in no uncertain terms that she was chosen years ago to be the main broker of world peace during collapse, and therefore she is the antichrist of revelations. There are numerous other coincidentals with scripture, including her Hinduism; last I checked yoga pants are the new world religion lol.

            She’s the only national socialist politician on the national stage in the US. She fits the sociopolitical historical national socialist mold to a tee. A nationalist, an anti-fascist/capitalist populist, a soldier, a Hindu, a vegan, a social/traditional conservative, and a left-libertarian. Hitler was all of those things except Hindu, but hunduism and yoga was the height of fashion among the NSDAP elite.

            This is not a slight on Tulsi. She’s an exemplary as a well-adjusted citizen of the world gets. And a magnificent beast. If I was a voter I would vote for her, too. But I believe that anyone who believes they have a right to participate in shaping the lives of people that they’ve never met before is a functional psychopath. If you plan on voting for Functional Psychopath X, brother, that’s your business.

  34. Something I keep wondering about: if they haven’t gotten a power grid working on such as wind/solar even in Hawaii, how is such as Sweden going to get through the winter with it? (Maybe they could ask Greta.)

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Sweden has lots of trees to burn for fuel. But that likely would only work for a small number of winters.

      • NomadicBeer says:

        Sweden is colder than most US States except maybe Alaska. The population density is higher than Oregon’s.

        If you remember the old estimates from theoildrum, none of the US states could last longer than 2 years (and most less than 6 months!) using wood energy. The calculation assumed everything is replaced but ignored gathering and conversion losses.

        My conclusion: “small number of winters” is optimistic. I doubt they can survive in the cities even one winter without oil or gas.

        • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
          Gail Tverberg says:

          You are probably right. I remember that burning wood was never a long term solution. People don’t realize that using a “renewable” resource, faster than it renews, is a path to nowhere.

          • Xabier says:

            I’m amused here these days watching people install stoves and buy firewood for the first time.

            Their estimate of how much is needed is very far out indeed. Their new wood stores are pathetically small in dimensions.

            They also look shocked when tell them the wood I cut is for use only in two years time, or more, as it has to season. Should keep them out of the woods, anyway.

            • Tim Groves says:

              Living in a place where the population is plummeting has had some benefits for me. Over the years I’ve gotten a lot of very useful tools, machinery, furniture, and even some good quality clothes from friends and acquaintances who were charged with getting rid of the possessions of deceased family members.

              People generally feel it’s a crime to throw away “good stuff”, and it is also increasingly difficult to sell, or even give it away, as there are so few takers.

              And as disparities widen, the middle-class shrinks and more people are reduced to living their lives in a Walmart and Macdonald’s culture, there is no place in their lives for “good stuff” in any case. It seems most find it more comfortable to live in Low Budget Land surrounded by chipboard and plastic and clad in synthetic garments.

              This autumn I was offered substantial load of cut, stacked and dried firewood, much of it hard wood such as oak and chestnut from the woodshed of an abandoned farmhouse of a neighbor who died last spring. It will keep us warm for a couple of months this winter.

              All I had to was load it up and bring it home. The family just want to tidy the place up and the wood was just sitting there attracting insects and spiders.

              I already had two year’s worth of firewood in store, but I jumped at the chance to get this windfall as it is the equivalent of dozens of hours of labor for me.

              In my part of rural Japan, there is plenty of wood, as it regarded as only a minor energy source. I estimate that only about 1% of homes have a wood stove and about 10% burn wood to heat bathwater.

              The main fuels for heating are electricity and kerosene stoves. Winter can be cold, but is relatively short here, and people traditionally have coped by wearing lots of layers of clothing, being physically active, eating hot food, and hiding under futon-covered kotatsu tables (as I mentioned last week).

              I remember one old lady who used to tell her children in the winter time, “If you’re cold, go outside and play catch ball!”

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Japan must be a fascinating place to live. Kinda regret not considering there over Bali.

      • houtskool says:

        Or, for a small number of people.

  35. Here’s some video of the burning Russia bridge from the SUN

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KdAdwahF1Fk

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      The article points to this academic paper, by Leon Hirth.

      https://neon.energy/Hirth-2013-Market-Value-Renewables-Solar-Wind-Power-Variability-Price.pdf

      Part of the abstract says, “We find the value of wind power to fall from 110% of the average power price to 50–80% as wind penetration increases from zero to 30% of total electricity consumption. For solar power, similarly low value levels are reached already at 15% penetration. Hence, competitive large-scale renewable deployment will be more difficult to accomplish than as many anticipate.”

  36. BERLIN (AP) — Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the biggest in Europe, has lost its last remaining external power source as a result of renewed shelling and is now relying on emergency diesel generators, the U.N. nuclear watchdog said Saturday.

    The International Atomic Energy Agency said the plant’s link to a 750-kilovolt line was cut at around 1 a.m. Saturday. It cited official information from Ukraine as well as reports from IAEA experts at the site, which is held by Russian forces.

    All six reactors at the plant are shut down but they still require electricity for cooling and other safety functions. Plant engineers have begun work to repair the damaged power line and the plant’s generators — not all of which are currently being used — each have sufficient fuel for at least 10 days, the IAEA said.

    “The resumption of shelling, hitting the plant’s sole source of external power, is tremendously irresponsible,” IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi said.

    Grossi visited Kyiv on Thursday. He said he will soon travel to Russia, then make another trip to Ukraine, to further his effort to set up a “nuclear safety and security protection zone” around the plant, which he has advocated for weeks.
    https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-united-nations-international-atomic-energy-agency-3f89a12ebb3a59795c718f3e675ddc23?taid=634160348a4e5d00014b3209&utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      A nuclear power plant without an external power source has a major problem. In a sense, this is a worse problem that the two unused pipelines being broken up. There is the potential for a massive radiation plume, if the spent fuel cannot be kept cool.

      • banned says:

        Every damn one of these things is a irresponsible problem. The spent fuel was never supposed to be stored on site. Its like designing a house and saying just poop on the front porch.

        • and the irresponsible Ukrainian neoNatzees continue to shell the power plant (surely with USA/NATZO weapons).

          notice the Berlin AP doesn’t clearly and explicitly cite who is doing the “renewed shelling”.

          some of these actions of the West are borderline innsane, and the propaganda is an intentional accomplice to the innsanity.

          the psyycho West needs to be denazified.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          A dog is smart enough to not shit in his home… but humans hahahaha…

          It amazes me that humans insist they have superior intelligence… but trying to show them that they are MOREONS… would only result in them thinking you to be insane…

          8B … kept alive … by a finite substance… hahaha… yep – brilliant they are!

      • Xabier says:

        Appalling development.

        The ‘free’ Ukrainians are the most wonderful allies we in Western Europe could possibly hope for. Almost as fine and noble as the Yanks.

        FE may well have a point when he says it’s time to pull the plug on our vile species.

        • Xabier says:

          Something is really spooking my dog: he is shaking and panting as he usually does on 5th November, but no fireworks, no unusual loud noises.

          Terror, but of what?

          If I next see all the birds take off and fly away, and the deer run away from the woods……..

          • Replenish – Pennsylvania, USA
            Replenish says:

            Several times my Dad’s black lab would walk in circles a few days before major EQs. Chile and Indonesia.

          • NomadicBeer says:

            Xabier and everyone else interested – Rupert Sheldrake is a scientist that actually tries to follow on a lot of interesting unexplained phenomena. Read his book (https://www.sheldrake.org/books-by-rupert-sheldrake/dogs-that-know-when-their-owners-are-coming-home) for a large number of anecdotes (as well as experiments) on animals (especially dogs) perceptions.

            Aside from sensing earthquakes hours before hand, finding their way over thousands of miles to find their owners, there are some stories on dogs pre-sensing accidents and stopping their owners from getting in the harm’s way.

            • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
              Gail Tverberg says:

              We hear about caterpillars growing thicker coats before cold winters, too.

            • Xabier says:

              Sheldrake is certainly interesting on fields of perception.

              Well, the dog’s still jittery. At least it’s not illness, as I feared when the shaking started. Even the noise from the army shooting range here doesn’t have this effect.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Animals are far more intelligent than humans.

              What we classify as intelligence is actually species-destructive stooopidity.

              Try explaining that to a MOREON — hahahaha… they will think you are insane.

              It all goes round to why doesn’t Hoolio drive a car – he would say why would he want to? (but he won’t say that – why would he want to talk?)

  37. Data now shows that the U.S. workforce is not as productive as just a year ago — it seems people are not producing as much in the hours between clocking in and clocking out each day. In the end, this could have a profound effect on the country’s well-being, according to economists.
    Productivity is down 4.1% on an annualized basis, the biggest decline since the government started keeping track of the number back in 1948. Since then, U.S. productivity had been on a steady upward slope. Until now.

    Pollak said there are likely a number of factors contributing to the drop in productivity, but she believes burnout, frustration and, yes, ennui are part of it. And if this continues, the consequences could be very serious.

    Productivity is the fuel of our economy, said Pollak, and if it continues to decline, the U.S. economy will shrink, quality of life will go down, opportunities will dry up, and innovation and ideas will go elsewhere.

    Japan, for example, has seen a years-long drop in productivity due to a population decline. The result has been two decades of economic stagnation.

    Looking toward a less-productive future
    Ennui can create a very bad cycle that is hard to turn around, said Pollak. Productivity, then, may continue to decline.

    “Once you’ve had that sort of Ecclesiastes moment of thinking everything is futile and pointless, how do you get people believing that hard work pays off again?” she said.

    Ecclesiastes is the book in the Old Testament that begins: “Meaningless! Meaningless! … Everything is meaningless.”

    from NPR.com

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Working from home leveraged productivity. Bringing people back to work makes people less productive.

      • Vern Baker says:

        Conversely, only some people are able to work from home effectively.

      • Rodster says:

        Surely Apple doesn’t see it that way after they spent billions building their Spaceship HQ.

        • NomadicBeer says:

          Actually multiple psychological studies have shown that the ONLY reason the managers want their workers on site is to be able to lord over (and torture) them.

          How can they get their jollies when every underling can simply hang up on them while they are being yelled at?

          • Bobby says:

            Very true. Skilled staff can get by without being managed so middle managers become superfluous. The reaction is often to seek legitimacy by any means that force people back into the office. Making staffs position impossible is a favourite way to degrade resistance. In the end you’re far better taking your actual skills and going elsewhere. Management can’t manage anything when they loose the skill base that justifies their existence. A bad manager is always costing their handlers because of staff turnover. A good manager makes their position redundant and creates harmony.

        • Student says:

          I’ve personally developed various experiences either working in office or at home, inside big Companies.
          Therefore, in my view, excluding jobs in:
          Production / Quality / Logistics / Buying (needing to talk often with production) / Marketing (because people working together devolop insane ideas, which are unfortunately good for business) / Retail jobs etc.
          the jobs you can really leave at home are mainly:
          Sales / Finance / Legal and Accounting jobs.
          Considering this last group of jobs, the two critical points are that a) if people don’t have enough room at home to work comfortably or b) people don’t have enough psychological balance to stay alone,
          people run the risk to go crazy, creating a problem for themselves, for the Company and for Society in general.
          Therefore I think that we are going into uncharted territories.

  38. TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — Two Florida men are behind bars after they were caught pumping thousands of dollars worth of “liquid gold” from a local restaurant early Thursday morning, according to authorities.
    The Flagler County Sheriff’s Office said Rui Gen Lin, 48, of St Johns, and Rong Chen, 41, of Gainesville, were caught in the act of pumping used cooking oil, also known as “liquid gold,” from a local restaurant in Palm Coast.
    When deputies took a look inside the truck, they found bolt cutters, a pry bar, a pump, and several “large storage containers” containing more than 7,000 pounds of used cooking oil valued at around $5,000.
    According to the Wall Street Journal, the value of cooking oil has risen 80% in the last year to 66 cents a pound. The sharp increase in value has incentivized thieves to steal the commodity and flip it for thousands of dollars.
    “This kind of crime is why we conduct business checks on closed businesses,” Sheriff Staly added. “With the price of oil rising, the theft of used cooking oil is increasing across the country. This was a great job by Deputy Kyle Gaddie for seeing something suspicious while on patrol and stopping to check it out. These two grease-bags made the mistake of coming to Flagler County and were taken to the Green Roof Inn!”

    Who would of thought?

    • drb753 says:

      used cooking oil still has for the most part 16 atoms long carbon chains. It can be added to kerosene (average chain 10) to obtain a mixture viable for use in a diesel machine (average chain 12). Of course it has market value.

  39. FINANCE ECONOMY
    A low Mississippi River is about to deepen Europe’s energy crisis
    “It will be a big disruption to supply,” the CEO of major coal exporter said, as the Ukraine war sends demand soaring in Europe.
    BY ELIZABETH ELKIN , WILL WADE , MICHAEL HIRTZER , AND BLOOMBERG
    October 06, 2022 5:03 PM EDT

    A barge on the Mississippi River in St. Louis, Missouri. Luke Sharrett—Bloomberg/Getty Images

    Sign up for the Fortune Features email list so you don’t miss our biggest features, exclusive interviews, and investigations.
    The Mississippi River is a vital U.S. waterway that ferries key commodities between the heart of America and the Gulf Coast—and drought is putting waterborne trade in jeopardy.

    Drought depleted river levels so much that in some spots vessels are getting stuck. One shipping company said low water levels are causing severe impacts to navigation not seen since 1988. It’s a key concern for transporting goods from a river basin that produces 92% of the nation’s agricultural exports, especially during harvest season.

    The Mississippi River is the main artery for U.S. crop exports, with covered barges full of grain floating to terminals along the Gulf of Mexico. Petroleum and imported steel also transit through sections of the waterway as does fertilizer traveling from New Orleans. The dryness—and the low water levels it brings—imperils such commerce. In 2012, for instance, the Great Plains drought led to $35 billion in losses for the US, including closing the river at least three times.
    The Mississippi River is currently closed near Stack Island, Mississippi, causing a backup of 117 vessels and 2,048 barges in the area as of midday Thursday, while a shutdown near Memphis, Tennessee has caused a smaller logjam, according to the Coast Guard. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is dredging near Stack Island and the Coast Guard intends to reopen the waterway with restrictions at some point Friday.

    “Chronic low water conditions throughout the inland river system have had a negative effect on many who rely on the river,” said John Roberts, chief executive officer of Ingram Barge Co., the top U.S. barge operator. Low water levels are affecting part of the company’s operations below Baton Rouge, Louisiana, he said Thursday in an emailed statement.

    Major barge lines on the river are turning away spot business as they struggle to meet demand for grains, metals and other raw materials already contracted well in advance. Shipping prices are soaring.
    The reason for low river levels is simple: lack of rain.

    Minneapolis received about a quarter-inch of rain in the past 30 days, below the average of almost 3 inches for this time of year, according to meteorologist Steve Silver of Maxar Technologies Inc. St. Louis received 0.86 inches, less than a third of average, and Memphis has seen a half-inch instead of more than 3 inches.

    Many parts of the Midwest and Plains states are experiencing drought, which affects water flowing into tributaries that normally feed into the Mississippi, Silver said.
    Things are unlikely to improve anytime soon. There’s less than an inch of rain expected across the region through the end of next week, according to Accuweather meteorologist Brandon Buckingham.

    Here are the biggest market impacts:
    Things are unlikely to improve anytime soon. There’s less than an inch of rain expected across the region through the end of next week, according to Accuweather meteorologist Brandon Buckingham.

    https://fortune.com/2022/10/06/low-mississippi-river-waters-deepen-europe-energy-crisis-coal/amp/

    Some more good doom news for us all…have a beautiful 😍 Day Everyone….

  40. Mac
    Agamemnon says:

    I’d expect USA gdp to be more correlated to energy over this time.

    https://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/747132-1.png
    (It’s hard to find these specific graphs on doe)

    • banned says:

      As less energy hits a system that is dependent on growth they switched from productivity to financials to provide growth. USA GDP is almost entirely financials.

      “Nothin’ from nothin’ leaves nothin’
      You gotta have somethin’ if you wanna be with me
      Nothin’ from nothin’ leaves nothin’
      You gotta have somethin’ if you wanna be with me
      I’m not tryin’ to be your hero
      ‘Cause that zero is too cold for me (Brr)
      I’m not tryin’ to be your highness
      ‘Cause that minus is too low to see, yeah
      Nothin’ from nothin’ leaves nothin’
      And I’m not stuffin’, believe you me
      Don’t you remember I told ya
      I’m a soldier in the war on poverty, yeah
      Yes, I am
      Nothin’ from nothin’ leaves nothin’
      You gotta have somethin’ if you wanna be with me
      Nothin’ from nothin’ leaves nothin’
      You gotta have somethin’ if you wanna be with me
      That’s right, ha, yeah
      Gotta have somethin’ if you wanna be with me
      You gotta bring me somethin’ girl
      If you wanna be with me”

      Billy Preston

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      I really like this chart. In fact, I am thinking about putting together an updated version.

      I think that the GDP has been able to grow, first by its direct use; then by electrification, then by financialization and globalization. GDP tends to collapse when attempts at financialization and globalization collapse.

      It seems likely to me that energy extraction stops because the world economy is no longer strong enough to support energy extraction. It cannot support the huge amount of international trade that is needed to keep the system going, for example. If the US economy can support energy extraction longer than some other parts of the world, it (or parts of it) may be able to continue longer than other parts of the world.

  41. banned says:

    Crimean bridge hit.
    З днем народження З днем народження з днем народження дорогий Путін З днем народження

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Lots of stories about the Crimean bridge out now.

      https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/08/europe/crimea-bridge-explosion-intl-hnk

      CNN says, Massive blast cripples parts of Crimea-Russia bridge, in blow to Putin’s war effort

      The blast early Saturday caused parts of the Kerch Strait road and rail bridge – opened by Putin himself in 2018 – to collapse, images and video from the scene showed. At least three people were killed in the explosion, Russian officials said, citing preliminary information.

      The exact cause of the blast at Europe’s longest bridge is yet to be confirmed.

      • banned says:

        Im surprised. I thought they were leaving it up to let those 300k Russian troops into the kill box. Zelensky said “this is the beginning”.

        Putin drew his lines. This crosses it. He aint seen nothing yet.

        This is how it goes for Russia from here on out. Mysterious bad luck. Shenanigans. If it hits Poland supply and command centers NATO is in. If it responds to shenanigans with its own NATO is in. Russian troops can mysteriously drop dead and no one will say nothing. Ukrainian troops start dropping dead and the MSM will shout WMD and its on. Russia doesnt have good responses. Hit civillians in Kiev? Russia doesn’t want to do that. Whats it going to hit that is a meaningful response that doesn’t bring NATO in?

        The satellites go bye. Its not civilian. Its infrastructure like the bridge. It doesnt require shenanigans. It prepares for the strategic nuclear exchange. It of course does bring NATO in.

        This thing is decades in the making. Its not going to just go away with a few troops some armor and some artillery. Russia says Donbass is theirs. West says its not. Its a problem and its that way on purpose. If no one wanted it to be a problem it wouldnt be. The time is now.

        • NomadicBeer says:

          Banned, I agree. See also https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2022/10/07/when-it-comes-to-conducting-a-war-the-kremlin-has-proven-its-incompetence/

          This remind me of the life of Augustus (the first and greatest Roman emperor).
          His protector (Cesar) was lenient when he came to power and because of that he was murdered, so Augustus learned his lesson. When he won the civil war, he had 6 months of terror when he killed anyone and everyone that might be a threat (including Cesar’s boy with Cleopatra and Cleopatra herself). After that he was nice and loved and that’s how we remember him today.

          Putin did not learn that lesson so someone else (maybe China or the next Russian leader) will have to.

          • Xabier says:

            We tend to have an odd notion that all generals must be a least basically competent, but a detailed reading of military history shows that is not always, or even very often, the case.

            Only war shows this up with great clarity, not exercises.

          • Xabier says:

            Excellent historical example, Nomadic.

            One of my ancestors was chief advisor – also a fighting knight, to his credit – to a Spanish king, and organised a massacre of about 10,000 disarmed people – Muslims – to pacify a conquered territory. A truly terrible crime by any standard, and even for those times.

            After that bit of ‘housekeeping’, however, it all settled down nicely, and the king was renowned for his beauty, bravery and chivalry. His helmet, with a dragon on top, still exists.

            About 2 centuries later, the Catholic Kings Ferdinand and Isabella did not massacre the Muslims when they conquered Andalucia, and that led to a whole century of rebellions there, conducted on both sides with unspeakable cruelty.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Theatre. The Russians could crush the Ukeys in a week if they wanted to

          • Tim Groves says:

            True. And actually, NATO is already in. We’ll see how deep in they eventually get as time goes by.

            If nukes are as nasty as advertised, it’s possible to escalate this thing all the way up to Armageddon. And then there is chemical warfare, biological warfare, information warfare, infrastructure targeting, which could extend to crippling the internet or even producing an EMP big enough to fry a continent’s electrical power grid and make smoke come out of everybody’s smartphone.

            But then, how could we follow the theater?

  42. Yoshua says:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1578419753009688576

    The markets are balancing on the 50MA support line…a break below would force the Fed to step in to support the markets

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      It seems like at some point the markets start moving generally down, rather than generally up, with occasional dips to the 50 month moving average level.

      Or, do the markets simply suddenly stop, perhaps because they are shut down by authorities, or because of too many electricity outages, or because governments of countries collapse?

  43. Yoshua says:

    https://twitter.com/theurigeller/status/1578050597156159492?s=20&t=-71pzKxKdJ5GOPDLXVmQoQ
    Mr Pool has been correct about the Pandemic… Lockdowns… War with Russia… Russian Central Bank… SWIFT…and has talked about the Russian Doomsday Sub and a gigantic radioactive tsunami hitting the US coast
    Believe it or not but Uri Geller is working for the US intelligence and is now tracking the Doomsday Sub

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Perhaps. Lots of things we don’t know.

    • Tim Groves says:

      What’s Uri going to do? Besides bending their cutlery?

  44. David says:

    Prof Simon Michaux talks about the resource – especially metal – requirements of a renewable energy system to replace fossil fuels. From Aug. 2022 …

    https://smi.uq.edu.au/event/session/11743

    Given the fact that almost no-one seems aware of his work, we should have looked into this about 1975, the time of the first ‘oil crisis’. Giving time to implement something by the time when oil did get scarce.

    Actually we did take renewables and energy efficiency fairly seriously for about ten years … then the US and UK governments seem to have lost interest.

    • Gail Tverberg – My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
      Gail Tverberg says:

      Countries figured out that the whole trend toward renewables and energy efficiency was going nowhere. Energy efficiency just encourages less wealthy people to use devices that consume energy products. The cost of transmission of electricity made by intermittent renewables is absurdly high.

      This talk is related to a study Simon Michaux made, found here

      https://www.researchgate.net/publication/354067356_Assessment_of_the_Extra_Capacity_Required_of_Alternative_Energy_Electrical_Power_Systems_to_Completely_Replace_Fossil_Fuels

      He mentions my work in the report.

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