Economies won’t be able to recover after shutdowns

Citizens seem to be clamoring for shutdowns to prevent the spread of COVID-19. There is one major difficulty, however. Once an economy has been shut down, it is extremely difficult for the economy to recover back to the level it had reached previously. In fact, the longer the shutdown lasts, the more critical the problem is likely to be. China can shut down its economy for two weeks over the Chinese New Year, each year, without much damage. But, if the outage is longer and more widespread, damaging effects are likely.

A major reason why economies around the world will have difficulty restarting is because the world economy was in very poor shape before COVID-19 hit; shutting down major parts of the economy for a time leads to even more people with low wages or without any job. It will be very difficult and time-consuming to replace the failed businesses that provided these jobs.

When an outbreak of COVID-19 hit, epidemiologists recommended social distancing approaches that seemed to be helpful back in 1918-1919. The issue, however, is that the world economy has changed. Social distancing rules have a much more adverse impact on today’s economy than on the economy of 100 years ago.

Governments that wanted to push back found themselves up against a wall of citizen expectations. A common belief, even among economists, was that any shutdown would be short, and the recovery would be V-shaped. False information (really propaganda) published by China tended to reinforce the expectation that shutdowns could truly be helpful. But if we look at the real situation, Chinese workers are finding themselves newly laid off as they attempt to return to work. This is leading to protests in the Hubei area.

My analysis indicates that now, in 2020, the world economy cannot withstand long shutdowns. One very serious problem is the fact that the prices of many commodities (including oil, copper and lithium) will fall far too low for producers, leading to disruption in supplies. Broken supply chains can be expected to lead to the loss of many products previously available. Ultimately, the world economy may be headed for collapse.

In this post, I explain some of the reasons for my concerns.

[1] An economy is a self-organizing system that can grow only under the right conditions. Removing a large number of businesses and the corresponding jobs for an extended shutdown will clearly have a detrimental effect on the economy. 

Figure 1. Chart by author, using photo of building toy “Leonardo Sticks,” with notes showing a few types of elements the world economy.

An economy is a self-organizing networked system that grows, under the right circumstances. I have attempted to give an idea of how this happens in Figure 1. This is an image of a child’s building toy. The growth of an economy is somewhat like building a structure with many layers using such a toy.

The precise makeup of the economy is constantly changing. New businesses are formed, and new consumers grow up and take jobs. Governments enact laws, partly to collect taxes, and partly to ensure fair treatment of all. Consumers decide which products to buy based on a combination of factors, including their level of wages, the prices being charged for the available goods, the availability of debt, and the interest rate on that debt. Resources of various kinds are used in producing goods and services.

At the same time, some deletions are taking place. Big businesses buy smaller businesses; some customers die or move away. Products that become obsolete are discontinued. The inside of the dome becomes hollow from the deletions.

If a large number of businesses are closed for an extended period, this will have many adverse impacts on the economy:

  • Fewer goods and services, in total, will be made for the economy during the period of the shutdown.
  • Many workers will be laid off, either temporarily or permanently. Goods and services will suddenly be less affordable for these former workers. Many will fall behind on their rent and other obligations.
  • The laid off workers will be unable to pay much in taxes. In the US, state and local governments will need to cut back the size of their programs to match lower revenue because they cannot borrow to offset the deficit.
  • If fewer goods and services are made, demand for commodities will fall. This will push the prices of commodities, such as oil and copper, very low.
  • Commodity producers, airlines and the travel industry are likely to head toward permanent contraction, further adding to layoffs.
  • Broken supply lines become problems. For example:
    • A lack of parts from China has led to the closing of many automobile factories around the world.
    • There is not enough cargo capacity on airplanes because much cargo was carried on passenger flights previously, and passenger flights have been cut back.

These adverse impacts become increasingly destabilizing for the economy, the longer the shutdowns go on. It is as if a huge number of deletions are made simultaneously in Figure 1. Temporary margins, such as storage of spare parts in warehouses, can provide only a temporary buffer. The remaining portions of the economy become less and less able to support themselves. If the economy was already in poor shape, the economy may collapse.

[2] The world economy was approaching resource limits even before the coronavirus epidemic appeared. This is not too different a situation than many earlier economies faced before they collapsed. Coronavirus pushes the world economy further toward collapse. 

Reaching resource limits is sometimes described as, “The population outgrew the carrying capacity of the land.” The group of people living in the area could not grow enough food and firewood using the resources available at the time (such as arable land, energy from the sun, draft animals, and technology of the day) for their expanding populations.

Collapses have been studied by many researchers. The book Secular Cycles by Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov analyze eight agricultural economies that collapsed. Figure 2 is a chart I prepared, based on my analysis of the economies described in that book:

Figure 2. Chart by author based on Turchin and Nefedov’s Secular Cycles.

Economies tend to grow for many years before the population becomes high enough that the carrying capacity of the land they occupy is approached. Once the carrying capacity is hit, they enter a stagflation stage, during which population and GDP growth slow. Growing debt becomes an issue, as do both wage and wealth disparity.

Eventually, a crisis period is reached. The problems of the stagflation period become worse (wage and wealth disparity; need for debt by those with inadequate income) during the crisis period. Changes tend to take place during the crisis period that lead to substantial drops in GDP and population. For example, we read about some economies entering into wars during the crisis period in the attempt to gain more land and other resources. We also read about economies being attacked from outside in their weakened state.

Also, during the crisis period, with the high level of wage and wealth disparity, it becomes increasingly difficult for governments to collect enough taxes. This problem can lead to governments being overthrown because of unhappiness with high taxes and wage disparity. In some cases, as in the 1991 collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union, the top level government simply collapses, leaving the next lower level of government.

Strangely enough, epidemics also seem to occur within collapse periods. The rising population leads to people living closer to each other, increasing the risk of transmission. People with low wages often find it increasingly difficult to eat an adequate diet. As a result, their immune systems easily succumb to new communicable diseases. Part of the collapse process is often the loss of a significant share of the population to a communicable disease.

Looking back at Figure 2, I believe that the current economic cycle started with the use of fossil fuels back in the 1800s. The world economy hit the stagflation period in the 1970s, when oil supply first became constrained. The Great Recession of 2008-2009 seems to be a marker for the beginning of the crisis period in the current cycle. If I am right in this assessment, the world economy is in the period in which we should expect crises, such as pandemics or wars, to occur.

The world was already pushing up against resource limits before all of the shutdowns took place. The shutdowns can be expected to push the world economy toward a more rapid decline in output per capita. They also appear to increase the likelihood that citizens will try to overthrow their governments, once the quarantine restrictions are removed.

[3] The carrying capacity of the world today is augmented by the world’s energy supply. A major issue since 2014 is that oil prices have been too low for oil producers. The coronavirus problem is pushing oil prices even lower yet.

Strangely enough, the world economy is facing a resource shortage problem, but it manifests itself as low commodity prices and excessive wage and wealth disparity.

Most economists have not figured out that economies are, in physics terms, dissipative structures. These are self-organizing systems that grow, at least for a time. Hurricanes (powered by energy from warm water) and ecosystems (powered by sunlight) are other examples of dissipative structures. Humans are dissipative structures, as well; we are powered by the energy content of foods. Economies require energy for all of the processes that we associate with generating GDP, such as refining metals and transporting goods. Electricity is a form of energy.

Energy can be used to work around shortages of almost any kind of resource. For example, if fresh water is a problem, energy products can be used to build desalination plants. If lack of phosphate rocks is an issue for adequate fertilization, energy products can be used to extract these rocks from less accessible locations. If pollution is a problem, fossil fuels can be used to build so-called renewable energy devices such as wind turbines and solar panels, to try to reduce future CO2 pollution.

The growth in energy consumption correlates quite well with the growth of the world economy. In fact, increases in energy consumption seem to precede growth in GDP, suggesting that it is energy consumption growth that allows the growth of GDP.

Figure 3. World GDP Growth versus Energy Consumption Growth, based on data of 2018 BP Statistical Review of World Energy and GDP data in 2010$ amounts, from the World Bank.

The thing that economists tend to miss is the fact that extracting enough fossil fuels (or commodities of any type) is a two-sided price problem. Prices must be both:

  1. High enough for companies extracting the resources to make an after tax profit.
  2. Low enough for consumers to afford finished goods made with these resources.

Most economists believe that an inadequate supply of energy products will be marked by high prices. In fact, the situation seems to be almost “upside down” in a networked economy. Inadequate energy supplies seem to be marked by excessive wage and wealth disparity. This wage and wealth disparity leads to commodity prices that are too low for producers. Current WTI oil prices are about $20 per barrel, for example (Figure 4).

Figure 4. Daily spot price of West Texas Intermediate oil, based on EIA data.

The low-price commodity price issue is really an affordability problem. The many people with low wages cannot afford goods such as cars, homes with heating and air conditioning, and vacation travel. In fact, they may even have difficulty affording food. Spending by rich people does not make up for the shortfall in spending by the poor because the rich tend to spend their wealth differently. They tend to buy services such as tax planning and expensive private college educations for their children. These services require proportionately less commodity use than goods purchased by the poor.

The problem of low commodity prices becomes especially acute in countries that produce commodities for export. Producers find it difficult to pay workers adequate wages to live on. Also, governments are not able to collect enough taxes for the services workers expect, such as public transit. The combination is likely to lead to protests by citizens whenever the opportunity arises. Once shutdowns end, these countries are especially in danger of having their governments overthrown.

[4] There are limits to what governments and central banks can fix. 

Governments can give citizens checks so that they have enough funds to buy groceries. This may, indeed, keep the price of food products high enough for food producers. There may still be problems with broken supply lines, so there may still be shortages of some products. For example, if there are eggs but no egg cartons, there may be no eggs for sale in grocery stores.

Central banks can act as buyers for many kinds of assets such as bonds and even shares of stock. In this way, they can perhaps keep stock market prices reasonably high. If enough gimmicks are used, perhaps they can even keep the prices of homes and farms reasonably high.

Central banks can also keep interest rates paid by governments low. In fact, interest rates can even be negative, especially for the short term. Businesses whose profitability has been reduced and workers who have been laid off are likely to discover that their credit ratings have been downgraded. This is likely to lead to higher interest costs for these borrowers, even if interest rates for the most creditworthy are kept low.

One area where governments and central banks seem to be fairly helpless is with respect to low prices for commodities used by industry, such as oil, natural gas, coal, copper and lithium. These commodities are traded internationally, so it is not just their own producers that need to be propped up; the market intervention needs to affect the entire world market.

One approach to raising world commodity prices would be to buy up large quantities of the commodities and store them somewhere. This is impractical, because no one has adequate storage for the huge quantities involved.

Another approach for raising world commodity prices would be to try to raise worldwide demand for finished goods and services. (Making more finished goods and services will use more commodities, and thus will tend to raise commodity prices.) To do this, checks would somehow need to go to the many poor people in the world, including those in India, Bangladesh and Nigeria, allowing these people to buy cars, homes, and other finished goods. Sending out checks only to people in one’s own economy would not be sufficient. It is unlikely that the US or the European Union would undertake a task such as this.

A major problem after many people have been out of work for a quite a while is the fact that many of these people will be behind on their regular payments, such as rent and car payments. They will be in no mood to buy a new vehicle or a new cell phone, simply because they have been offered a check that covers groceries and not much more. They will remain in a mode of cutting back on purchases, not adding more. Demand for most kinds of goods will remain low.

This lack of demand will make it difficult for business to have enough sales to make it profitable to reopen at the level of output that they had previously. Thus, employment and sales are likely to remain depressed even after the economy seems to be reopening. China seems to be having this problem. The Wall Street Journal reports China Is Open for Business, but the Postcoronavirus Reboot Looks Slow and Rocky. It also reports, Another Shortage in China’s Virus-Hit Economy: Jobs for College Grads.

[5] There is a significant likelihood that the COVID-19 problem is not going away, even if economies can “bend the trend line” with respect to new cases.

Bending the trend line has to do with trying to keep hospitals and medical providers from being overwhelmed. It is likely to mean that herd immunity is built up slowly, making repeat outbreaks more likely. Thus, if social isolation is stopped, COVID-19 illnesses can be expected to revisit prior locations. We know that this has been an issue in the past. The Spanish Flu epidemic came in three waves, over the years 1918-1919. The second wave was the most deadly.

A recent study by members of the Harvard School of Public Health says that the COVID-19 epidemic may appear in waves until into 2022. In fact, it could be back on a seasonal basis thereafter. It also indicates that more than one period of social distancing is likely to be required:

“A single period of social distancing will not be sufficient to prevent critical care capacities from being overwhelmed by the COVID-19 epidemic, because under any scenario considered it leaves enough of the population susceptible that a rebound in transmission after the end of the period will lead to an epidemic that exceeds this capacity.”

Thus, even if the COVID-19 problem seems to be fixed in a few weeks, it likely will be back again within a few months. With this level of uncertainty, businesses will not be willing to set up new operations. They will not hire many additional employees. The retired population will not run out and buy more tickets on cruise ships for next year. In fact, citizens are likely to continue to be worried about airplane flights being a place for transmitting illnesses, making the longer term prospects for the airline industry less optimistic.


The economy was already near the edge before COVID-19 hit. Wage and wealth disparity were big problems. Local populations of many areas objected to immigrants, fearing that the added population would reduce job opportunities for people who already lived there, among other things. As a result, many areas were experiencing protests because of unhappiness with the current economic situation.

The shutdowns temporarily cut back the protests, but they certainly do not fix the underlying situations. Instead, the shutdowns add to the number of people with very low wages or no income at all. The shutdowns also reduce the total quantity of goods and services available to purchase, regardless of how much money is added to the system. Many people will end up poorer, in some real sense.

As soon as the shutdowns end, it will be obvious that the world economy is in worse condition than it was before the shutdown. The longer the shutdowns last, the worse shape the world economy will be in. Thus, when businesses are restarted, we can expect even more protests and more divisive politics. Some governments may be overthrown, or they may collapse without being pushed. I fear that the world economy will be further down the road toward overall collapse.




About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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4,744 Responses to Economies won’t be able to recover after shutdowns

  1. Fast Eddy says:

    Governor Andrew M. Cuomo today announced the total number of flu cases in New York State has eclipsed the record number of seasonal cases since the New York State Department of Health began tracking flu cases during the 1998-99 season.

    The latest influenza surveillance report for the week ending February 22 shows 131,604 laboratory-confirmed cases so far this season.

    Previously, the most lab-confirmed influenza cases reported during a single flu season was 128,892 in 2017-18.

    While this year’s flu season has reached historic levels, last week, the number of laboratory-confirmed flu cases decreased 26 percent and hospitalizations decreased 13 percent.

    Yes – this is a very bad flu season — but keep in mind those numbers are not all Wuhan Flu … they are ALL types of Flu.

    Did the US lock down in 2018?


  2. Covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    “Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe plans to declare a state of emergency over the coronavirus outbreak in the country, the Japan Times reported, citing a government official.
    A surge in infections has swept Tokyo and other major cities and Abe’s move could come as early as Tuesday…”

    “Australia’s daily infection growth rate has fallen — from about 25% and 30%, down to around 5% — as more people self-isolate…”

    • Fast Eddy says:

      That’s great – but they need to get to 0. And even then they cannot allow anyone from other countries in ….

      So breaking out the Champagne if they can get this to 0 … is premature…

      Australia.. it’s an island… but it’s not an island

      NZ is in very strict quarantine … 60-80 cases per day in spite of that

  3. Covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    “The Spanish government is working to roll out a universal basic income as soon as possible…”

  4. Fast Eddy says:

  5. Fast Eddy says:

    The hospital situation in the US reminds me of this

  6. Covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    “Coronavirus peak death rate will strike U.S. in 11 days when 2,644 people will die in 24 hours…”

    “It shows New York – the epicenter of the outbreak in the US – will reach its peak in five days with 855 deaths…”

    “Researchers also warn 100,000 Americans will die by August 4…”

    so says the new model…

    for a comparison, the most deaths in one day in a bad USA flu season is about 500…

    a direct comparison:

    2,664 in one day to 500 in one day…

    it ain’t gonna take a mathematician to see… to see…

  7. Covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    “Mainland China sees rise in new coronavirus cases…”

    “… Beijing remains unable to completely halt new infections despite imposing some of the most drastic measures to curb the virus’ spread.”

    “China remains worried about second wave of infections…”

    second wave?

    what is that?

    is that some new theory?

    • Fast Eddy says:

      As we can see from that Lock Downs cause collapses… they are du m b.

    • Perhaps it’s the feature of the specific haplotype strain of the disease for Chinese pop. And it seems as powerful trait hardwired in such fashion it doesn’t want to naturally mutate out of it quickly enough on its own. Also we are likely still very early “burning” into it as only ~5months since the outbreak.. so it’s returning and sloshing around.

      • Kowalainen says:

        I would say 8 months into the pandemic. Exponential growth passes under the radar for a long time. And then *boom*.

        • Except that the flu’s growth rate really isn’t exponential, especially with facial masks and social distancing.

          If we believe the data from the Worldometers, the number of newly reported cases and newly reported deaths is down, in the last couple of days.

          If we believe this information, the peak reported new cases outside of China occurred on April 3, and April 4 and April 5 take steps down from there. I expect that the April 5 number is not final, and may increase as more information is available. The peak in reported deaths occurred on April 2, and has been down from then.

          • Kowalainen says:

            Yes, with home made face masks it probably will slow down substantially. With N95’s and reasonable social distancing it’ll be over before it even started.

            Am I the only one getting ready for a new fashion trend. It will be the latest craze in a couple of weeks. Custom made face masks with N95 inserts. Watch it unfold in real time.

  8. Covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    “We have to open our country,” Trump said, repeating that “the cure cannot be worse than the problem itself.”

    of course his hotel etc businesses are collapsing…


    • Fast Eddy says:

    • I am glad that Trump has some sense!

    • JesseJames says:

      Dr Fauci is a deep stater with “deep” links to the Bill Gates foundation and to Gates funded vaccine companies. Hence his resistance to a common drug that might alleviate COVID symptoms. Enquiring minds would like to know if he has stock in his vaccine company and thus has vested conflicting monetary interests, or, if not monetary, just the run of the mill professional conflicts of interest.


    • Fast Eddy says:

      Another reason the lockdown cannot work.

      1. We will end up with mass starvation or people will riot and there will be blood baths in countries like this

      2. No matter what we do we cannot eliminate the Woohan… so we need to remain in lockdown forever. Otherwise the virus comes back.

      Fauci (the Colin Powell of our time) …. read my lips — it is NOT possible to eliminate a virus with a lockdown. So why would you bother trying when you KNOW that it will resurface the moment a lockdown is pulled.

      Are you trying to starve FE Fauci if prikkkk? Am I asking for too much when I beg you for some Fentanyl?

      Do the right thing mate. Take care of Fast….

      • JesseJames says:

        Fauci is hopelessly compromised with conflict of interest. With numerous monetary and professional ties to Bill Gates and his vaccine pushing foundation Fauci should immediately be replaced by President Trump. This is why Fauci was against trials of the anti malarial drug.
        Fauci has revealed himself as essentially a globalist tool of Gates in implementing the vision of a globalist vaccination/tracking/control of the world population, and devastating economies to do so.

        • can’t decide if this is an ant-vax comment

          it seems to be–Gates wants to control world population and so on—and on–and on. Too silly to comment on really. The moon hoaxers are fundamentally harmless and i dismiss them accordingly. but anti vaxxers are a menace to society–and it’s not silly.

          vaccination has shown itself to be effective at controlling diseases for 200 years.

          Ahhhhhh—the pointy fingers are raised–“but can you PROVE there’s no cabal of billionaires controlling our brains from a bunker in the wilds of Montana?”

          “Well—no I can’t”

          “Well—there you are then–that proves our brains ARE being controlled through the effects of vaccinations we had when we were kids” (such are the essential arguments in all this rubbish) Billl Gates wants your kid’s brain!!! He’s vaccinating Africa—he must want to control africa through his PC.
          Stop vaccinations!!!
          And the unthinkers do just that.

          Don’t people ever stop and read the stuff they write? (yes I do—and delete lots as idiotic)

          Equally—“can you PROVE there wasn’t a secret MGM studio concocting fake moon landings?”

          “well no I can’t”—-Ahhhhhh—that’s more PROOF then. NP is spouting nonsense as usual.
          logic becomes illogical in some Orwellian way.

          Does no one recognise that the same anti vaxxers and moon hoaxers are filling the same vacant thought spaces as the evangelical preacher-ranters? They too latch on to people who (for some reason) delegate their rational thinking to others who gladly do it for them, and deliver ready made conclusions which have no bearing in reality.

          You see it in the faces of those standing behind the Don, listening to rambling incoherence that defies credibity. You see it in the face of evil in Kenneth Copeland. (freeze frame that guy sometime for really scary bits.
          He rants about the devil—and no wonder)You see it in that weird Paula White woman who dances up and down the stages pronouncing that she is Jesus personified.
          Before her it was Bachmann etc. All telling people what and how to think

          when dangerous anti vaxxers start their hysterical nonsense, groups of equally gullible people stop vaccinating their kids, and they start to die. This creates infection groups who in themselves are a danger to everyone else

          • Yorchichan says:

            One look at the list of ingredients that go into a vaccine and there was not a chance my children were ever going to get a single shot. ‘First do no harm’. What a joke. Any doctor that administers a vaccine should immediately be struck off. Quite apart from whether the health benefit a vaccine confers is greater than the harm it does, I also believe in survival of the fittest, including for myself and my children, and I don’t approve of how medical research is carried out by experimenting on innocent animals. The way in which vaccines are developed is enough in itself to ensure I would never be vaccinated against anything.

            What’s with the argument that children who haven’t been vaccinated are a threat to other children? Makes no sense at all. If the other children have been vaccinated then why don’t they have immunity? If some other children can’t be vaccinated because they have an underlying health condition, this just proves vaccines are harmful. I wouldn’t risk harm to my children to protect other people’s children in any case.


            Ask the parents whose children have been damaged by vaccines who the gullible ones are.

            • fair enough

              our mutual offspring are unlikely to come into contact with one another but do check out what Rubella does to an unborn child sometime, just as a ‘for instance’.
              part of the routine MMR vaccine program here in UK. which has gone on for several generations without hysteria. Apart from a few idiots who would say an ingrowing toenail is part of a guvmint conspiracy.

              let’s hope the ‘survival of the fittest’ works if it ever hits you and yours.. Decide then what to do with a blind and /or disabled child. Somehow I doubt if ‘survival of the fittest’ will mean much.

              Most kids get born Ok—a tiny proportion aren’t. Screaming ‘vaccination’ is a natural outlet for the anger about chance. My eldest was born perfect and beautiful–a friend was in the same hospital at the same time—her baby was born blind, disabled and never came home. We cried for her mischance. but Nobody was ‘to blame’.

              the rest of it just isn’t worth going into here—the wrong place with the wrong mindset

            • This is why parents used to have three day measles (Rubella) parties, especially for their daughters. If one child had it, they wanted to pass it around as much as possible, so it wouldn’t be a problem later.

              As a parent of a child (now adult) with autism, I saw a fair number of anti vaccine movies and other material, over the years. It is frightening that children come home from the hospital and seem to be fine. Later, about the time they get some of their vaccine shots, some seem to develop problems. Autism seems to be much more common now, as children are administered more vaccines. There is a huge amount of solidarity of the medical community, saying, no, it couldn’t possibly be the mercury that we put in the vaccines.

              After all of the activism by parents of autistic children, the medical community has moved away from the thimerosal in vaccines. There would be a clear liability problem if medical community would publish a study showing that thimerosal is even a partial cause of autism.

            • Yorchichan says:


              Do you think vaccines were to blame for your child’s autism? With so many pollutants in the air and food, you can never know for sure.


              This creates infection groups who in themselves are a danger to everyone else

              If you hadn’t tried to take the moral high ground with this statement, I wouldn’t have commented. If the unvaccinated are a danger to themselves and other unvaccinated then fine, they deserve what they get. However, you are suggesting that the unvaccinated are a danger to the vaccinated. How can this be? Do the unvaccinated go on a zombie rampage attacking the vaccinated if they catch the disease? Or do vaccines not work, so that the vaccinated are still susceptible to catch the disease?

          • Fast Eddy says:

            There should be a vaccine that protects against infection of the MSM… its a disease that rots the brain

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