Item of General Interest
July 25. I received notice today that an article I helped write is available for free download for the next fifty days. The corrected free link for the article is "An Oil Production Forecast for China Considering Economic Limits." The article discusses the possibility that oil prices may not rise endlessly, and evaluates three future price scenarios. Under the "low" scenario (prices remain under $50 per barrel), oil production in China has already peaked.
Category Archives: Oil and Its Future
Why EIA, IEA, and BP Oil Forecasts are Too High
When forecasting how much oil will be available in future years, a standard approach seems to be the following: Figure out how much GDP growth the researcher hopes to have in the future. “Work backward” to see how much oil … Continue reading
Posted in Financial Implications, Oil and Its Future
Tagged debt defaults, low oil prices, low wages, oil forecasts, oil price, recession
904 Comments
An Economic Theory of Limited Oil Supply
We seem to hear two versions of the story of limited oil supply: 1. The economists’ view, saying that the issue is a simple problem of supply and demand. Substitution, higher prices, demand destruction, greater efficiency, and increased production of … Continue reading
Posted in Financial Implications, Oil and Its Future
Tagged Hubbert, M. King Hubbert, oil prices, oil supply, peak oil
156 Comments
Renewables Are Overrated, We Need Cheap Oil – Interview with Gail Tverberg
This article originally appeared at Oilprice.com. What does our world’s energy future look like? Does renewable energy feature as much in the energy production mix as many hope it will? Will natural gas and fracking help reduce our dependence upon … Continue reading
The Growing Part of the World in Charts
Some parts of the world pretty much sailed through the 2008-2009 recession, while other parts of the world had huge problems. The part that sailed through the recession is what I call the “Growing Part of the World.” I thought … Continue reading
