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Recent Posts
- Fossil Fuel Imports Are Already Constrained
- Our Oil Predicament Explained: Heavy Oil and the Diesel Fuel it Provides Are Key
- The World Economy Is Becoming Unglued; Models Miss Real-World Behavior
- Models Hide the Shortcomings of Wind and Solar
- The bumpy road ahead for the world economy
- The Fed Cannot Fix Today’s Energy Inflation Problem
- When the Economy Gets Squeezed by Too Little Energy
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Academic Articles
- An analysis of China's coal supply and its impact on China's future economic growth
- An Oil Production Forecast for China Considering Economic Limits
- Analysis of resource potential for China's unconventional gas and forecast for its long-term production growth
- China's unconventional oil: A review of its resources and outlook for long-term production
- Financial Issues Affecting Energy Security
- Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis
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Category Archives: Introductory Post
Our Oil Predicament Explained: Heavy Oil and the Diesel Fuel it Provides Are Key
It has recently become clear to me that heavy oil, which is needed to produce diesel and jet fuel, plays a far more significant role in the world economy than most people understand. We need heavy oil that can be extracted, processed, and transported inexpensively to be able to provide the category of fuels sometimes referred to as Middle Distillates if our modern economy is to continue. A transition to electricity doesn’t work for most heavy equipment that is powered by diesel or jet fuel.
A major concern is that the physics of our self-organizing economy plays an important role in determining what actually happens. Leaders may think that they are in charge, but their power to change the way the overall system works, in the chosen direction, is quite limited. The physics of the system tends to keep oil prices lower than heavy oil producers would prefer. It tends to cause debt bubbles to collapse. It tends to squeeze out “inefficient” uses of oil from the system in ways we wouldn’t expect. In the future, the physics of the system may keep parts of the world economy operating while other inefficient pieces get squeezed out. Continue reading
Our fossil fuel energy predicament, including why the correct story is rarely told
Strangely enough, a big part of the confusion regarding the nature of our energy problem comes from the fact that virtually everyone wants to hear good news, even when the news isn’t very good. We end up seeing information in the Main Street Media mostly from the perspective of what people want to hear, rather than from the perspective of what the story really is. In this post, I explain why this situation tends to occur. I also explain why our current energy situation is starting to look more and more like an energy shortage situation that could lead to economic collapse. Continue reading
Today’s Energy Predicament – A Look at Some Charts
Today’s energy predicament is a strange situation that most modelers have never really considered. Let me explain some of the issues I see, using some charts. [1] It is probably not possible to reduce current energy consumption by 80% or … Continue reading
Posted in Financial Implications, Introductory Post
Tagged energy demand, low oil price, oil price, peak oil
2,368 Comments
The World’s Fragile Economic Condition – Part 1
Where is the world economy heading? In my opinion, a large portion of the story that we usually hear about how the world economy operates and the role energy plays is not really correct. In this post (to be continued … Continue reading
The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis
I was recently asked to give a talk called, “The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis.” In other words, how might the United States encounter problems that lead to a crisis? As we will see, many of the problems that could lead to … Continue reading