Author Archives: Gail Tverberg

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.

Economies won’t be able to recover after shutdowns

Posted on March 31, 2020

Citizens seem to be clamoring for shutdowns to prevent the spread of COVID-19. There is one major difficulty, however. Once an economy has been shut down, it is extremely difficult for the economy to recover back to the level it … Continue reading →

Posted in Energy policy, Financial Implications, News Related Post | Tagged , , , | 1,269 Comments

It is easy to overdo COVID-19 quarantines

Posted on March 11, 2020

We have learned historically that if we can isolate sick people, we can often keep a communicable disease from spreading. Unfortunately, the situation with the new coronavirus causing COVID-19 is different: We can’t reliability determine which people are spreading the … Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications | Tagged , , , | 4,403 Comments

Easily overlooked issues regarding COVID-19

Posted on February 18, 2020

We read a lot in the news about the new Wuhan coronavirus and the illness it causes (COVID-19), but some important points often get left out. [1] COVID-19 is incredibly contagious. COVID-19 transmits extremely easily from person to person. Interpersonal … Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications | Tagged , , , , | 2,589 Comments

It Is Easy to Overreact to the Chinese Coronavirus

Posted on January 29, 2020

Recently, a new coronavirus has been causing many illnesses and deaths. The virus first became active in Wuhan, China, but it has already spread to the rest of China. Scattered cases have been identified around the rest of the world … Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications | Tagged , , , | 1,772 Comments

Expect low oil prices in 2020; tendency toward recession

Posted on January 8, 2020

Energy Forecast for 2020 Overall, I expect that oil and other commodity prices will remain low in 2020. These low oil prices will adversely affect oil production and several other parts of the economy. As a result, a strong tendency … Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications | Tagged , , , , | 1,162 Comments