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- Why Oil Shortages May Bring Lower Prices–and Recession
- China and US Trade Talks: A Solution for Oil Shortages?
- Losing the Iran War May Be the Best Outcome for the World
- A New Explanation for Tariffs and Bombings
- Understanding Deglobalization: The Role of Diesel and Jet Fuel
- 2026: Expect a very uneven world economic downturn
- Too many promises; too few future physical goods
- A lack of very cheap oil is leading to debt problems
- What has gone wrong with the economy? Can it be fixed?
- Sierra Club talk that may be of interest
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Author Archives: Gail Tverberg
About Gail Tverberg
My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.Why Oil Shortages May Bring Lower Prices–and Recession
Rather than high prices, my major concerns are recession and the disappearing availability of goods and services that we rely on. This might be similar to the empty shelves that many stores experienced in 2020 and 2021. There may also be new government restrictions, intended to work around the reduced oil supply. Continue reading →
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Posted in Financial Implications, News Related Post, oil shortages
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Tagged Self-organizing economy, self-organizing systems
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653 Comments
China and US Trade Talks: A Solution for Oil Shortages?
President Trump of the US and President Xi of China will be meeting in Beijing on May 14-15. This meeting would seem to be the perfect time to start reorganizing the world with shorter trade routes, so that the world economy uses less fuel for transportation. Continue reading →
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Losing the Iran War May Be the Best Outcome for the World
At this point, the world economy needs to make a major transition in order to deal with the inadequate level of fuels available for long-distance transportation.
It is ironic that the world economy cannot make a change such as this without a war to focus our attention in this direction. Continue reading →
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Posted in Energy policy, Financial Implications, News Related Post
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Tagged diesel, economic cycles, oil prices
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3,760 Comments
A New Explanation for Tariffs and Bombings
Because of energy-related shortages that are already being encountered, national economies are beginning to act like the players in a game of musical chairs, with one too few chairs. Leaders have taken to building up armies, cutting off exports of critical minerals, imposing tariffs, and bombing other countries. Continue reading →
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Posted in Financial Implications
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Tagged critical minerals, oil prices, per capita energy consumption
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3,475 Comments
Understanding Deglobalization: The Role of Diesel and Jet Fuel
While international trade grew as a percentage of GDP between the 1960s and 2008, it has been basically flat since then. Now the shortages of diesel and jet fuel are forcing the international trade percentage to start falling to a lower level. Continue reading →
