As I will explain, the outcome that looks like losing may actually be the best path forward for the world’s remaining economies.
The fighting today is with respect to which parts of the world will get which energy resources, and at what prices. Even before the current conflict, there was a shortage of jet fuel and diesel. The only reasonable outcome I can think of is that the US will only be able to tap its own energy resources, plus those of its nearby neighbors (Figure 1). Consequently, the economy will gradually reorganize in ways that use fuels more sparingly.
The outcome outlined in Figure 1 implies that Donald Trump and the US-Israel coalition will lose the war against Iran. It appears that the physics of the situation (or perhaps the Higher Power behind the physics of the situation) has chosen the flawed personality of Donald Trump to accomplish the required result. This is a situation where what seems to be the US losing in its conflict against Iran is actually winning for the overall world economy. If oil can be used more sparingly in the future by servicing people closer to where end products are made, the available energy resources will provide greater benefit to society as a whole.
In the remainder of this article, I will try to explain the situation more fully.
[1] Background
In physics terms, an economy is a dissipative structure. In order to stay away from a dead state (collapse), it needs to “dissipate” energy of the right kinds. A human is also a dissipative structure. We dissipate food to stay away from a dead state.
From a physics point of view, fossil fuels are as essential to economies as food is to humans. Without fossil fuels, economies tend to collapse and die. With an adequate supply of easily extractable and transportable fossil fuels, economies are able to grow. However, when these fuels become less available due to the exhaustion of nearby resources, or for other reasons, economies are forced to shrink. Rising population can also be a factor because every person in the world needs food and at least minimal transportation. The war is about future standards of living in countries around the world.
An underlying problem is that the world now has too many people for the available resources, such as fresh water. One chart showing data through the end of 2023 indicates that the Middle East is home to 4,863 desalination plants, or about 42% of the world’s total. This region is acutely stressed for fresh water. The Middle East cannot grow much of its own food; it must depend on imports, which are grown and transported using oil.
Previous analyses (here and here) have shown that diesel and jet fuel supplies have been in increasingly short supply since long before the Iran War.
Critical minerals, used in electrification, are also in very short supply. In a finite world, the easy-to-extract minerals are extracted first, leaving the high-cost-to extract minerals for the future.
In today’s fossil fuel economy, oil is the largest component. Oil is usually the highest-priced of the fossil fuels because it is energy-dense and easy to transport and store. If oil supply fails, an economy is likely to collapse. Coal and natural gas are the other fossil fuels. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is natural gas that is super-chilled and shipped long-distance by boat. Similarly to oil, its price is under pressure today.
[2] The world’s fossil fuel economy already seems to be at a turning point in its economic cycle.
It is well known that economies exhibit cyclical behavior. Researchers Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov analyzed eight economies that collapsed and published their findings in their book Secular Cycles. They found that populations that discovered new resources were able to grow for a period of time until they came close to the carrying capacity of the resources available. After approaching the carrying capacity, economies reached a period of stagflation, characterized by slower growth, inflation, and spiking prices as shown on Figure 3.
At this point, the fossil fuel system has been growing for over 200 years. It has undergone stagflation since the early 1970s. It is now ready to begin the downswing of the Crisis Years.
Now, the Iran War seems to mark the beginning of a fairly long Crisis Period. The Stagflation Period was expected to last 50 to 60 years. The year 2026 is 56 years after the time US crude oil production stopped growing, so the timing is roughly in line with expectations. However, we don’t know whether the Crisis Period will really last between 20 and 50 years, since the situation is now quite different compared to cycles before fossil fuels were added to the economy. But it does look like the world economy is headed for reorganization based on the limited fuel supply.
[3] In order for an economy to “work,” oil prices need to be both low enough for consumers, buying end products such as food made possible by the use of oil, and high enough for oil producers.
This issue is not one most people think much about. There are really two different oil price levels that are important:
(a) The price level affordable by consumers. If consumers cannot afford food or basic transportation, this quickly becomes a problem that leads to unhappiness with elected officials. This is the reason why elected officials often try to hold down oil prices.
(b) The price that oil producers require in order to make an adequate profit and allow investment in new wells to offset depletion in existing wells. In the case of oil exporters, oil prices may need to be very high to permit high taxes on oil exports to support food subsidies and other government programs.
I believe that a major problem we have reached today is that countries that are primarily oil exporters, such as Russia and countries in the Middle East, need far higher oil prices than consumers are able to pay. Even if the wars in Ukraine and Iran stopped tomorrow, the world would still have this underlying issue.
[4] Since 2014, oil prices have been too low for countries that use taxes on oil exports as a major source of tax revenue.
Figure 4. Oil prices in 2025 US$, with ovals marking three different oil price periods. Oil prices are based on oil data from the 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy, published by the Energy Institute, adjusted by the US CPI Urban increase to 2025 levels. The 2025 average Brent oil price is from EIA data.
Figure 4 shows average world oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis, to 2025 price levels. As such, prices for earlier dates appear much higher on the graph than past observers would have seen them.
The low oil prices from 1948 until early 1973 were good for economies around the world, including the US. In the early days of oil extraction, oil was easy to extract and close to where it was to be used. The cost of extraction and transport was low. Consumers started seeing many more products become available. Many families in the US could afford a car for the first time. Also, the US was able to support the recovery of European economies from the impact of World War II at a cost that was not excessive.
In recent years, costs have risen. This is especially the case for the price needed by oil exporters. Part of the problem is that the size of the population requiring subsidy keeps growing, while oil production has been close to flat.
A second part of the problem is that economies of oil exporters often have few other sources of taxable revenue. Oil exporters are trying to change this by adding downstream manufacturing that uses the oil and gas they produce. A third part of the problem is that, as population grows, the higher population tends to use more of the available oil supply, leaving less for export.
Figure 6 shows that, in the 2011-2013 period, oil prices seemed to be high enough for most OPEC members (except Iran). Fiscal break-even prices indicate how high oil prices need to be, including the amount of tax revenue needed to balance budgets.
The notation in yellow on Figure 6 shows that the expected fiscal breakeven break-even for the period under analysis for all OPEC members combined was $105. EIA data shows that the average Brent oil prices during this period were $111 in the year 2011, $112 in the year 2012, and $109 in 2013. Thus, prices were high enough for most producers. Iran was an outlier on the high side, with a range for the 2013-2014 period of $110 to $172. (A more recent forecast for Iran shows a 2025 fiscal breakeven price of $124, which remains far above the pre-Iran war oil price.)
Figure 4 shows that oil prices began to fall in 2014. At these lower levels, it became increasingly difficult for oil exporters to obtain enough tax revenue to significantly help their local populations. They started needing to use more debt to fund their local economies. As a result, they gradually became increasingly unhappy. Figure 4 shows that the average price 2025 for Brent oil was only $65.
To make matters worse for oil exporting countries requiring high prices, oil price forecasts by the EIA and IEA for the year 2026 were even lower because of an expected oversupply of oil. Countries with growing oil production included Argentina, Brazil, China, and Guyana. In addition, some counties on the coast of Africa are hoping to add oil production. Unless world demand is growing rapidly, more oil supply tends to lead to lower prices and a worse situation for oil exporters trying to balance their budgets with taxes on exported oil.
[5] Without the war, LNG prices would also have been too low for LNG exporters.
LNG is a “modern” way of shipping natural gas. Only about 13% of natural gas is transported as LNG. It tends to be an expensive method of transport. Recent reports indicate that a huge amount of future LNG supply is planned for the next few years.
Adding a huge amount of LNG would probably cause prices to drop significantly. This would be great from the point of view of consumers, but it would likely leave prices too low for producers. As I see the situation, Middle Eastern producers are likely to need prices in the $15 to $20 range per million metric tons of LNG, while India is not willing to pay more than $10 per unit, and those wanting to replace coal are unwilling to pay more than $5 per unit. Thus, without the war, LNG would have had a similar problem to that of oil, with prices far too low for exporters.
[6] From Iran’s point of view, I see the war as similar to a suicide, when a farmer can no longer support his family.
With Iran’s fiscal breakeven price at $124 per barrel and the pre-war Brent price at only $65, Iran was already in an impossible position. In fact, Iran could see that all of the Middle East infrastructure would be close to worthless, at expected 2026 oil and LNG prices. So why not take it down as well?
If nothing else, a war might help raise prices, at least a bit. Notice that on Figure 4, oil prices bounced up a little from their very low level in 2022, the year when the Ukraine conflict started.
[7] Losing any significant share of energy supply is likely to significantly reduce world GDP.
If the energy supply were to be lost, the world would be dealing with the losing something equivalent to its food supply. If the world economy loses even 10% of its oil and LNG, it is not difficult to imagine world GDP falling by 10%. At this point, we don’t know precisely how much energy supply, of which kind, will be lost, or for how long. The amount lost could be far higher than 10%. Also, the outage could last for years.
There are many issues involved. Supply lines are breaking down forcing businesses to find closer sources for both energy products and products made using cheap local energy products, such as fertilizer and aluminum. The war, as it is taking place today, is leading to major damage to energy-related structures in the Middle East. Destroyed LNG structures are estimated to take at least five years to replace. Damage elsewhere is also immense. Rebuilding the oil infrastructure will also likely take at least five years.
[8] The US understands the importance of Middle Eastern oil and gas. It uses its strong relationship with Israel to further its military presence in the Middle East.
Israel is a very high-level ally. In fact, a 2025 US Department of State Fact Sheet says that the US is committed to helping Israel in the case of an attack:
Steadfast support for Israel’s security has been a cornerstone of American foreign policy for every U.S. Administration since the presidency of Harry S. Truman. . . Israel is the leading global recipient of Title 22 U.S. security assistance under the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program. . .Israel has been designated as a U.S. Major Non-NATO Ally under U.S. law. This status provides foreign partners with certain benefits in the areas of defense trade and security cooperation and is a powerful symbol of their close relationship with the United States. Consistent with statutory requirements, it is the policy of the United States to help Israel preserve its QME, or its ability to counter and defeat any credible conventional military threat from any individual state or possible coalition of states or from non-state actors, while sustaining minimal damages and casualties.
However, if we look to see where US military bases are located, they are not in Israel. Instead, a map shows that the “persistent” US military bases are all located around the Persian Gulf (Figure 8).
These bases were clearly intended to protect oil transiting through the Persian Gulf. At this point, all of the persistent bases have been severely damaged by missiles from Iran.
The major interest of the US has been the availability of oil and natural gas from the Middle East. No one ever considered the idea that low prices might be the force that would bring down Middle Eastern oil and natural gas exports.
Friendship with Israel provides the US a convenient close by ally. It also pleases both Jewish Americans who support Israel and those evangelical Christians who hold a religious view that Israel is needed for the second coming of Christ. Some of the latter may even believe that a war in the Middle East could perhaps hasten this event.
[9] Trump realizes that winning the war against Iran is absolutely essential if the US is to retain global hegemony.
The US has been the holder of the world’s reserve currency since immediately after World War II. It was chosen for this role because it was the most trusted and dominant country in the world. International trade took place almost exclusively in US dollars, creating a high demand for US government debt. This allowed the US to import more goods and services than it exported, year after year. This advantage tended to raise the standard of living of US residents.
At one time, Saudi Arabia insisted that all oil purchases be made in US dollars. This requirement has recently expired, but, as a practical matter, the majority of purchases have continued to be through trades in US dollars.
One of the main ways that the US has maintained its hegemony is by building military bases around the world. With these bases, the US can claim to protect countries against aggressors. However, recent events have shown that Iran is able to take down the radar systems at these bases. Without radar, the bases are virtually useless. If the US is to maintain the illusion that it is truly at the top of the pecking order with its sophisticated weaponry, it must show that, together with Israel, it can prevail against Iran.
A disadvantage of the role of being the chief hegemon is ever-rising US government debt and the need to pay interest on that debt. This growing debt and the interest on the debt has become an increasing burden.
If the US should lose its hegemony role, the advantage the US has had over other countries in trade is likely to disappear. Repaying debt with interest is likely to become an even worse problem. If this should happen, Trump will no longer be able to think about making America great again.
[10] Conclusion
The world is now facing a problem that most people never considered possible: Oil and LNG prices can fall so low that production becomes unprofitable for major oil and LNG exporters. Until now, the trend among world leaders, including President Trump, has been to try to hold prices down for consumers, so that food and fuel for vehicles would remain affordable. However, this has created a problem in that prices have become too low for countries whose primary industry is being an oil exporter.
At this point, the world economy needs to make a major transition in order to deal with the inadequate level of fuels available for long-distance transportation. These same fuels are heavily used for farming and for many for commercial endeavors, such as building homes and roads. It is therefore necessary to find ways to use these fuels more sparingly. One way to achieve this is by reducing the length of most supply lines, as shown on Figure 1. Shorter supply lines will also be needed elsewhere in the world.
It is ironic that the world economy cannot make a change such as this without a war to focus our attention in this direction. Other changes will also be needed. Governments will probably have to become smaller and provide fewer services. Vacation travel will become the exception rather than the rule. “Working from home” will become the norm, whenever possible. I expect that the world’s population will need to fall, albeit in a fairly subtle way. I expect this will mostly be the result of shorter life expectancies.
We are fortunate that economies are self-organizing. If resources are available, even after a major schism such as the loss of the war against Iran, the self-organizing nature of the economic system will try to knit together pieces that can productively provide goods and services. This cannot happen instantly, but this feature means that there are likely to be some jobs and some goods and services available. Past cycles of the type illustrated in Figure 3 have eventually led to new beginnings.
If the US and Israel lose the current war against Iran, I expect President Trump to be blamed for this loss. However, I believe that this outcome would be best for the world as a whole.
Donnie is such a Boob …
Trump ‘considering’ Venezuela as 51st state, acting president responds
Portrait of Fernando Cervantes Jr.Fernando Cervantes Jr.
USA TODAY
More than five months after the United States captured now-former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, President Donald Trump has again suggested that his administration would try to annex the oil-rich country.
The president told Fox News correspondent John Roberts on Monday, May 11, that he was now “seriously considering a move to make Venezuela the 51st state.”
But the South American nation’s current leader quickly pushed back on the idea.
Mister T is the poster child of the ugly American
the american fuhrer has to continually expand to sustain the delusion that his country is great.
the last fuhrer had to invade poland and ukraine for exactly the same reason.
the dictator must grab other peoples resources to supplement his own…
i can see no other other outcome than the current fuhrer’s complex ending in the same way as the last one…
and anyone erecting 22ft gold statues of himself has to be seriously off his head.
Yes, agree with your assessment…and as with Addie Hitter will end with the same outcome…death and destruction to all concerned. Yes, a striking parallel of personalities
I just published a new post. I will cut off comments on this post.
Reante, are you cutting hay for your own use or are you selling it? Seeing the price of hay going through the roof if you are west of Kansas. The prices are based on a ton but if you figure 60# bales, its crazy.
Just for my own use. I hay on the BCS two wheel tractor platform that makes those mini round bales so it’s much slower going than regular haying. I make both hay and haylage. I’m haying my two next door neighbors’ place this year and maybe I’ll put up 800 50lb dry bales and 100 80lb wet bales over the next six weeks. gasoline bcs tractor which is good.Hadn’t noticed the prices.
The baler is that ver. made in Bergamo .it ?
I dig a lot of BCS spec attachments ideas – not in need of bailer though, btw. ET-dealer having pic of yours older rig even eating-bailing up large pine straw!
Interestingly, BCS still has not been surpassed; well in Asia they prefer the larger-heavier rigs for the paddies and as in hauling substantial cargo as well.. , but BCS still rocks!
The Caeb Mountain press. I’m haying in the hills, plus my place is not bulldozed as I just grinded the timber stumps and hayed between the stumps over the years til they were all gone, so ground is to uneven for bigger equipment but the bcs scale can get in the books and crannies and over the humps without scalping, and superior on side slopes. Yes, went through Earthtools, Joel the owner is a great guy, he’s provided great technical support to me over the telephone through the years.
I also rake and/or blow and bale about 30 bales of maple leaves in the Fall for mulching the perennials.
I spend most of my time with 2 x 5 gallon buckets. BCS hasn’t moved from the garage in years. Switching over a lot of small engine equipment to Stihl battery powered.
What do you mean about the bucket work?
The switch sounds like a good plan.
When things go south, large parts of USA will quickly turn int Redneckistan.
A lot of southern whites are Moors , originally from North Africa and moving to Spain and then the southern USA, then part of ‘Florida’ which was much larger than the current state baring that name. ‘Florida’ stretched far as Vicksburg, at the banks of Mississippi and a Civil War battlefield in 1863, which the Spanish had called Nogales (there is still a Fort Nogales in that city).
These rednecks only know guns , and have no emotions, sympathy or sense of right and wrong. Their IQs would be similar to the IQs of Moroccans and Algerians, and after the shakeups following the end of BAU, the Redneckistans will look like Algeirs and Casablanca (which is not that glamorous after the French left)
The Redneckistans will look like
https://youtu.be/iNoTGO31MAI?si=VZ7iONegKZbZidr3
Algiers today. Not much has been built since the French left
https://youtu.be/83rmEUFjDI8?si=2mQXStd24x5JEGZ4
Street view of Tangiers, the Tijuana of Morocco
Zerohedge’s view:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/media-spreads-hantavirus-hysteria-attempt-save-disgraced-who
Media Spreads Hantavirus Hysteria In Attempt To Save Disgraced WHO
For those who are unaware, Hantavirus is a common virus around the world and in the US. Estimates show around 100,000 cases of the disease occur annually. In 2023, there were 40 cases in the US. The virus is most often contracted when humans are exposed to dried rodent feces and urine, floating as particulates in the air which are then inhaled into the lungs.
The spread from human to human is rare and only occurs with the South American strain. Contraction is difficult, with the virus passing from one person to another through “prolonged contact with bodily fluids”. It makes you wonder what kind of pleasure cruise these people were on when the most recent outbreak started? The point is, the story is being inflated from a normal event into a crisis event. . .
The bottom line? Hantavirus is all over the world and it’s not a threat to the vast majority of people. The artificial media panic and the opportunism of the WHO may be an effort to test the waters for another fraudulent pandemic scare, but the majority of the propaganda seems to be aimed at restoring the WHO’s reputation and saving it from financial ruin.
No Appropriate PPE for a 10 percent lethality. ? With chemicals and class A suits you have to move to disinfect pools prior to SCBA air running out. You stand in the pools and the disinfect team scrubs you down with brushes. That is sufficient to exit the class A suit. The suits then get further disinfected before another use. The suits don’t last forever and are very expensive. Class A deployment takes a lot of training equipment and personnel. It ain’t like the movies where a swarm of guys in suits magically appear. Like many things much logistics allow even a single suit. Without the disinfect teams class a suits are theater. Very expensive theater for the suits and SCBA alone
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RRh562qqREY&t=264s&pp=ygUQY2FuYWRpYW4gcHJlcHBlcg%3D%3D
The fire would be from the nest not the poop.
Owls, raptors and coyotes are your friends. Rodent eating machines.
A couple years ago I stopped on a road exiting my place. There was a a guy with a brand new land cruiser. A small fire had started on the engine. The fuel was mice poop. He parked it on a rural property. That was some expensive mouse poop. Setting traps in vehicles is SOP. Otherwise you won’t have a vehicle. I have one friend who prizes her truck. She sets six traps every day. She has found them all full before.
A raptor pole or two knocks them back pretty good. Biological drones. Awesome sensors.
Usually it’s plague not hanta that kills or injures people. It’s quite rare but it happens.
Dad has a Bronco 2 parked at the cabin year round that He used as an ATV during hunting season but the Mice apparently ate thru the fuel line and live in the AC/Heat ducts. The fuel line is inconveniently placed above the fuel tank so He wants to have some Good Old Boys with a rollback pick it up for service. In other words, it will probably sit there until Dad passes away serving as a mouse sanctuary, lol.
“ And Erdogan and Turkey knows that. So we’re setting up the prospect of a real clash between Turkish forces which are superior to the
19:22 IDF and IDF forces. So this is a disaster unfolding.”?
In one my “archon downloads,” I saw an explosion in a “Senate City” (Rome, Istanbul?) leading to something akin to a Bronze Age collapse.
Ravi, what is this? True?
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-declines-russian-lng-under-sanctions-talks-continue-permitted-cargoes-2026-05-11/
Yes.
can I use the word “stupid”?
This reminds a person of Western Europe deciding it didn’t want Russian oil and pipeline gas.
Should we erect monuments to the Unknown Idiot?
Should we erect monuments to the Unknown Idi*t?
Modi is an idiot .
” Fertiliser stocks tumbled after the opening bell on Monday, May 11 following Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s appeal to farmers to reduce chemical fertiliser usage by 50% in light of the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.”
Remember whar happened in Sri Lanka when it went organic . Anyway there is only a 50 % availability of urea this sowing season starting end May-June .
https://www.msn.com/en-in/lifestyle/pets-animals/fertiliser-stocks-under-pressure-as-pm-modi-pushes-natural-farming-lower-chemical-use/ar-AA22SWBY
New Delhi is a separate world just like the beltway.
We need a virus to lockdown…….. now more difficult though….
we are very close to permanent lockdown scenario 2 to 3 weeks then our freedoms will be all gone this will be far worse especially if you have no food supplies as i have said many times they knew when big reductions in oil supply would arrive the covid lockdown was an attempt to bring in a different reality with a stabilized population using the deadly jabs now the next stage will probably be far worse because the covid lockdown plan failed and the next plan could be stuck at home with no food crime will explode martial law will probably be declared .I read that the sustainable developement goals were not viable now they had run out of time to implement them this meant that the resources had reached a stage that not enough were available to do the sustainable developement goals. This is why the iran war could be the pretext for permanent lockdown
yeah but can we even survive without food and energy? Great idea though
It’s difficult to know what their next plan is. Wars and sanctions seem to be the current one. When another group of politicians get elected somewhere, perhaps things may shift to another outbreak. Something to limit economic activity.
Sustainable development goals were never sustainable. But like most things, they seemed viable until they ran out of money.
I think those goals are for after the die-off.
BAU has become “Cumbersome”.
“Cumbersome” describes something bulky, or difficult to manage, often due to its size, weight, or complexity.”
Hey Tim. Finally found the time to sit down and read that paper on exosomes that you posted on the other page. It’s haymaking and shearing season so particularly busy. It was an interesting, ranging survey of tumor exosomal findings. Echoed a number of things I said; or, rather, I echoed a number of things it and papers like it have said. Of particular note is this passage at the beginning of the later part of the paper that talked about tumor exosomal cancer treatments which is the Big new thing these days:
“On the other hand, exosomes may also play a role in providing tumor antigens that can stimulate the immune system and promote rejection of neoplastic spread by the organism. In recent years, the development of immunotherapies, such as immune checkpoint inhibitors, has highlighted the importance of tumor neoantigens and their relation with responses to these new therapeutic alternatives [66]. In a way, the mutational burden (and consequently neoantigens) has been shown to correlate with the efficacy of immunotherapies [66, 67]. In this sense, exosomes could be used as a predictive biomarker as well as a tool to improve response rates to new treatments (used as a platform of neoantigens).”
This relates to my realization the other day that cancer is cooler than I had realized. That realization was that cancer’s ultimate function is as a parallel, emergent cell complex which purpose is to facilitate carcinogenic detoxification that the normal body has become unable to deal with, and the quote above relates to it not because it has anything explicit to do with cancer being cool — that realization is never going to happen within the allopathic establishment — but rather that the establishment’s biochemical systems analysis recognizes that cancer has the ability to tell the body to attack the cancer, which is the inverse of the classical cancer ability to tell the body not to attack it. Cancer is intended to be a temporary condition until the body can get out of its health crisis, so it has to be able to tell the body to both stand down when the tumors need to do their job, and to resolve the tumors when the tumors have done their job.
Thank you for reading the paper and commenting on it. It certainly does echo some things you’ve said, and I wanted to make it known to the readership here that although many of the things you say are distinctly non-mainstream, at least some of what you say has been backed up by people in white coats who perform and publish peer-reviewed research, even if some of their conclusions are speculative.
Cancer as a radical detoxification process—this is an idea that is intrinsically graspable. The body takes in poisons that can potentially cause great harm, so it has to eliminate them. Fortunately, the body is intelligent enough to do this through a variety of methods—all of them automatic—with cancer being a last resort when other methods are not up to the task. The idea makes sense.
I’ve never had symptomatic cancer, but I have had a bout of the condition known as norovirus infection—which may not be a virus but caused by a toxin of some kind—possibly a mold. When you get this condition, you can’t eat or keep anything down, but you drink, and then you barf, and you experience the wateriest diarrhoea ever together with severe weakness that leaves you lying on the floor, preferably within crawling distance of the toilet. As i remember it, t isn’t painful, but it isn’t pleasant either. It’s as if the body has decided, we are going to totally flush out the alimentary canal, expelling everything we can from both ends. And we are going to suspend all other activity until that job is done.
As an aside, you may be interested in this recent article by Dr. Paul Marik, on the use of anti-parasitic drugs such as ivermectin and menbendazole to treat cancer. In it, he specifically states:
Although several antiparasitic drugs including ivermectin, mebendazole and niclosamide have proven anti-cancer effects it is important to recognize that cancer is NOT a parasitic disease as has been suggested in the “popular press” and by misguided clinicians. There is no evidence that cancer is caused by or related to any parasitic disease. These drugs act via specific biochemical pathways specific to the cancer cell which are distinct from their anti-parasitic mechanisms of action.
https://paulmarik.substack.com/p/ivermectin-and-cancer-why-this-nobel
I enjoy the spring season very much, although it is busy here too. No sheep for me to shear, but rice planting is scheduled for May 15, and I’m painting the outside walls of the house before the rainy season arrives.
When I talk about cancer being cool it’s on the fundamental biological level. By the time a Stage 1 cancer is made, that tumor has billions of cells in it and is completely out of whack with its original intelligent design. Tumorigenesis — tumor cells emerging in tumor microenvironments, doing their thing, and going away again — has presumably happened in you and me intermittently during our lifetimes, and most probably shortly before we get ‘the flu,’ which is really that backup emergency secondary fat-soluble detox. I wouldn’t be surprised if a certain threshold of tumorigenesis is actually partly a signaling complex in its own right for initiating a that secondary carcinogen detox in otherwise well-functioning bodies.
We have to remember that death by cancer is a new phenomenon to humans and so even a stage 1 diagnosis should be seen in a freakishly catastrophic context made common by a freakishly ecologically catastrophic industrial culture.
Ivermectin shows efficacy on cancer because anaerobic cellular life has a necessarily upregulated PAK1 energy pathway relative to aerobic cellular life, so ivermectin disrupting that pathway hurts anaerobic life more than it hurts aerobic life but it still stresses aerobic cells.
Neat experience with your body cleanse. I imagine that you feel noticeably refreshed after your body was back to normal functioning. Maybe it wasn’t even some toxin you ingested but just an accumulated overgrowth of candida hitting a tipping point that your body up and decided to go postal on with a secondary structural detox.
Buy all Motor Oil?
https://x.com/costakapo/status/2053948679485009990
Thanks for the info, I just ordered a few 5qt jugs from Amazon. Walmart shows low inventory on several of their motor oils.
I’m getting other fluids too and a new car battery with other common spare parts
better get some toilet paper too!
Get a bidet toilet seat…I save 90% of my toilet paper.
I’ve been using a “crap bucket” and save 100% on water and use a pee bottle…both good on trees once aged. As far as toilet paper..
Suppose a spray bottle will have to do..
Could you pls. share more details – lessons learned on this topic? What kind of trees ( and their age ), assuming northern hemi / lat. so you get seasonal freezeouts and snow there ? Do you also ~wood mulch it over sometimes ( around said human-fertilized trees ) or dig some shallow pits for it beforehand ( the application ) ?
I’d attempt something like this ( crap-manure ) only on broader acreage not immediate radius around the house / water wells perim. though.
Obviously the ~urea portion ( if you separate some ) is almost bulletproof trouble free even just around the dwelling – on the condition of some man-made/or rain water dilution and changing the spots somewhat. Great for berries – especially tiny forest strawberry grows like crazy then !
Isn’t salt in the diet a problem for urea on plants?
Btw. lot of ideas / links s:
” humanure bucket system “
In the Permies thread the bloke is discussing praxis-updates to that key h.book info: had to collect 3x full buckets first and only then go composting jointly..! most likely some effect of minimal / critical mass needed for reaching proper composting temperatures.. etc.
Folks using either commercial product: pelletized stall/horse bedding ( needs pre-soak ) or generic sawdust, plus essential oilz mix sprayed on top top ( above mulch ) to further dismay-negate bug / laying eggs contact scenario..
All, jolly good, but the bottom line still remains the pros/cons/specifics of the main pile composting properly per given locale ( temps, time, seasons )..
Some even had it under shade/tent etc. , i.e. very site specific.
Salts in general.
The ideal mix urine – water should be ~1:10, and in grand context just constantly change the place of emptying the bucket/bottle.. So, lets say first day the hedge, second day the old apple tree, third day another hedge, fourth day berry bushes separate place #1-8, .. spot by spot going through the property as in giant trail-route loop, NOT depositing at the same place constantly etc.
Also it helps using less and cooking w. the quality salts like the pinko Himalayan or the Alpine..
“Just got word Mobil and Shell have informed Costco and Walmart they have no packaged product to send them and to expect bare shelves in the motor oil section in a few weeks.”
I am afraid we will soon be facing the “empty shelf” problem for many things.
Chris Martenson latest in oil charts and why the screws are tightening on the global economy. If this continues, a global recession by June and a global depression by Sept-Oct.
Now might be the time to prepare and stock up on some food because no one knows if we are going to be looking at food shortages later this year. “When The Trucks Stop Running” by Alice Friedemann.
https://peakprosperity.com/negotiations-crumble-as-gasoline-diesel-prices-rise-to-a-national-record/
Thanks, any bets which segment cont. for a bit longer say bunker-fuel (fishing flotillas) vs trucking diesel.. ? Then it could be negated in follow-up steps anyway as in packaging factories and warehouse-shop distribution..
The Gadidae ( Cod/Pollock ) few kgs per small add. freezer.. soonish.. ?
+( if you believe in the grid cont. or are on batt. )
PS there are gazzillion of Asians depending on this diet ( fake crab ), one can expect in trully panicky situation, the globo-warehouses will be stripped bare in an instant.., the ocean is +half-dead anywayz..
HANTAVIRUS patients rushed into Atlanta hospital
Medics in FULL head-to-toe hazmat suits wheel them on stretcher from ambulance
https://x.com/RT_com/status/2053890748336964055
They will keep telling us “its not a pandemic” until one day they’ll flip the switch.
From the WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-a-e-has-been-secretly-carrying-out-attacks-on-iran-f1745a0d
The U.A.E. Has Been Secretly Carrying Out Attacks on Iran
One strike in April hit an oil refinery on Iran’s Lavan Island
The United Arab Emirates has carried out military strikes on Iran, people familiar with the matter said, casting the Gulf monarchy as an active combatant in a war in which it has been Iran’s biggest target.
Its military is well-equipped with Western-made jet fighters and surveillance networks. And the attacks suggest the country is now more willing to use them to protect its economic power and growing influence across the Middle East. . .
Speculation about the U.A.E.’s involvement in the war has swirled since mid-March, when a jet fighter that didn’t appear to belong to Israel or the U.S. was filmed over Iran.
Regarding Lake Mead and Hoover dam
The lake’s water level is currently 1054ft, with shutdown at not far below 950ft.
The entire US is in a deep drought, save the Great Lakes area. However, the emerging Ultra El Nino may flip this later in the year. The mountains have almost no snow pack, and many farms didnt bother planting this year due to an uncertain future.
The South West US is in for a hot dry Summer, with no water, and very expensive electricity for cooling. Now, check out the chart showing just how bad this situation could be…
https://mead.uslakes.info/level.asp
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufutkEdfpWA
Here is a video showing what Lake Mead looks like today. Snow pack is mentioned.
Thanks! I remember reading something similar recently. Sometimes remembering exactly which dam has issues is a problem.
There seem to be false videos out about everything.
Global employee engagement has fallen to an all-time low. The leadership crisis affects not only society but also business. The work environment in many companies is toxic.
https://www.trend.sk/biznis/ivana-molnarova-zamestnanci-maju-strach-ozvat-sa-a-manazmenty-ziju-v-iluzii-ze-vsetko-je-ok?itm_modul=react_trend_subtopbox&itm_brand=trend&itm_template=hp&itm_position=4&itm_cb_position=top_main_2
I can believe this. Management is under pressure to show profits. It is pretty much impossible to achieve this goal without over working employees.
iran has been preparing for using Hormuz as leverage for many decades.
They named their anti ship missiles “Hormuz”.
Irans latest offer.
End sanctions
Give back frozen money
Keep all nuclear facilities
Keep enriching
Keep absaloute right to control Hormuz
Keep tolls and right to deny passage
End blockad
Enriched material goes to Russia for safe keeping
In other words. A surrender request.
This is the negotiating position of the winner not the loser.
The deal was before the war where a sweetheart deal was offered.
Now all the moderates that offered that deal are dead.
Attacking Iran is the greatest catastrophe in USA history ever.
A new world power using a energy choke hold has been created.
IMO the possibility of a deal ended with the deaths of the moderate leaders. Now Iran is running the playbook they have spent decades writing.
TIME
They are using TIME.
Every day every minute is a victory.
The day is coming.
The day when the world wakes to $200 oil.
Iran is running it’s hardline playbook created long long ago. It’s by the numbers. There are no decisions. They were made long ago.
Will Trump use nukes out of desperation? Has Trump ever had to salvage a no win situation in his whole life? This is a hard fall. There will be pain.
The art of the deal. It was part of the lie. Trump has no deal making skills. Trump dictates. Trump forces. A guy in a Mexican market selling vegetables is 100x times the deal maker than Trump.
A deal would require understanding who the winner and loser are.
Iran only has to make it to the midterms then a month or two more.
Things will bust loose way way before then one way or another.
The fog of who is the winner and who is the loser is gone. Only the pretend oil price maintains thee facade.
In polling 75 percent of American people think USA lost the war.
In polling 15 percent of American people think USA won the war.
The American people could cut a deal. Trump can not. It is not within his capabilities. Trump can only cut a deal when he has dominance. Creating dominance is the first part of Trump’s ” art of the deal”. With no deal what is the default? TIME. Time is the default. And of course more unbelievably stupid actions in a attempt to create dominance. Trump’s style is worthless. He thought it was art. It’s actually dog shit Ihappens. It’s called a testing of conclusions. Much pain is involved when art turns out to be dog shit. Testing of conclusions is not gentle. Best avoided. Of all the mistakes not understanding lack of skill might be the greatest. How to take a hard fall is a very valuable skill.
Love ya dog but this comment par excellence is controlled opposition narrative par excellence. It is what synthesis par excellence, of the algorithmic gamut of yootoob videos, looks like. It is not the synthesizing of true dissidence in god mode that you have shown that you can perform whenever you want; it is you mechanically carrying out the Hand’s work as subliminally suggest to you by the Hand. Just as during the plandemic. No offense, I’m not being mean, friend, I’m just being forthright.
Having a polarized dialogue wherein the twain shall never meet is what sets up the planned Global Peace Accords that come after the American Coup. Problem Reaction Solution. The Accords will see through the compromise.
In exchange for the ultimate Reassurance that is the Coup, Iran will gladly cede its demands for controlling the Omani Hormuz shipping channel and the US will gladly cede control over the Iranian Hormuz channel. If Iran wants to charge tolls in its channel then, like Tim said the other day, stoopid is as stoopid does. So it obviously won’t want to. And all of Iran’s other conditions will be met.
Now doesn’t that feel like a real, honest to goodness world again? The World Of The Real? Like this was all a bad, and badly written, dream? Well, welcome to the Matrix.
The truth is two layers deep.
And no, Ashkenazi Scot Donald Drumpf has never had to salvage his failed ventures because the Rothschilds have always salvaged them for him…
“Donald, Where”s Your Troosers?” (classic Scottish song, 3mins)
https://youtu.be/uZ7Izh2dOUM
I value your opinion and appreciate your politness
My approach would be different.
I would acknowledge I ran has won.
I would agree to USA military leaving the area forever.
I would affirm Irans right to enrich as per NP treaty.
I would agree to the enriched material going to Russia.
I would agree the blockade ends.
I would express my appreciation for Iran as a civilization.
I would agree to unfreezing funds.
I would agree to all sanctions ending
I would then look them straight in the eye and communicate that I considered any nation interfering with shipping in the strait a existential threat both to the USA and industrial civilization.
I would give them 48;hours to consider.
This would be appropriate.
It would give Iran a out and a bright future if they accepted.
It would break their playbook where they are robots with no responsibility.
I would become the robot with no responsibility implementing a playbook.
The choice would be Irans. They would face the same thing they are presenting with their mutually assured destruction deterent that they do meticulously cultivated and now drunk with it’s power are foolishly are trying to. Use as a tool of leverage instead. As the winner the choice would be there’s. Also appropriate.
Obviously since you don’t believe in nuclear weapons existence this is even more fictional if that is even possibility. Nuclear weapons are actually pretty crude devices.
If Iran accepted and saved the world it could serve as a “near miss”. That autonomy is every nations right but it must exist with cooperation. No nation should have the power to destroy everything. As technology grows nuclear is just one weapon of mass destruction like Hormuz has become.. we face many possibilities for extinction in the near term. Only maturity and a degree of cooperation will allow continuance. I do consider the position this can only be achieved by whipping all nations into a Uniform puree terribly misguided. I’ll keep my potato and eggs separate from my cherry pie thank you. Some existential threats may not have solutions simply created from agreement. Iran is actually a easy fix for someone unconstrained and unobligated willing to use their creativity.
If Iran did not accept. Oh well. I understand your argument that in some ways exemplify what you call the hand. I take truth where I can find it.
Pity Trump. He can not allow himself to express the respect he feels for Iran. Going on media saying winning over and over. Truly pitiful.
If you believe in carbon based climate change ending 25 percent of the worlds oil consumption might well save humanity not end it. I have no opinion. Not enough time or interest to understand the truth. Did you think I was joking when I said Trump is Greta’s greatest ally?
My preference would be for the spice to flow.
How are things? None of us really know. The hand is not big on transparency. I can find several different motives for their behavior. Humans are mostly not honest by nature. It took me a long time to get that. Slow learner.
Thanks.
No I didn’t think you were joking about Trump but your insistence upon it being true leaves no space for structural peak oil collapse. It’s 100% political and 0% structural, and I’m a structuralist. The reason that I argue he’s a structural decelerationist is because he’s a vehicle for the Non-Public Degrowth Agenda which seeks to slow an otherwise fast Collapse due to the hypercomplexity of the civilization.
I do believe in the existence of nuclear weapons.
Humans are mostly honest by nature but humans are mostly dishonest by politics.
I certainly don’t know what’s true. As I mentioned there are multiple possible motives that fit behavior. I thought western Europe voluntarily ceasing affordable energy was mad. I suspect Hormuz is the same. It has been understood a long time Iran will shut the strait if threatened. Of course they wanted it known. That’s the deterent. If you wanted the strait closed obviously the nation who live there who have been preparing to close it for decades are well suited to do so. Both USA and Europe took actions that significantly reduce energy supply. My belief is usually behavior reveals motive. Here we are told it is circumstances not intent. It could be. That it has happened twice certainly increases the possibility it is not circumstance. We will never know. It doesn’t really matter. The consequences will be the same regardless.
I mention not out of certainty of knowing that it is true but out of humor. Because if it is intentional two participants in the pantomimes who are cast as each others antithesis are allies. I find that possibility enormously humerous.
Carbon based climate change is a incredibly divisive subject. As usual people form their opinion on what appeals to them. Because of that I don’t trust any of the evidence presented. Statistics have become another form of lieing. To determine truth would require data collection and objective statistics analysis. Even so there is no control climate to compare to. I really don’t care. I’m certainly not going to spend my time that way. My belief isn’t going to move a spec of dust. I do enjoy speculating in this crazy world. I also understand we are self affirming creatures. The great flaw of “conspiracy theorists”.also the great flaw of normality bias.
Humans are hard wired for a lot of sensor input. We are very good vision engines identifying what is pertinent. What is pertinent means discarding what is not pertinent. We are hard wired to discard the vast majority of our inputs. We paint our picture of the world with what is not discarded. This creates a premise of understanding. The mistake is not that premise does not have value. Usually the model has great value. The mistake is the belief that the model is absaloute not something we created. People are not comfortable with that at all.
“@aeberman12
Why do so many think today’s oil price is too low?
WTI price includes a $30 risk premium
Inventories say $75
Markets say $106”?
https://x.com/aeberman12/status/2053663336110186921?s=20
But the key takeaway msg is that CBSNews site now features these top [ tabs ] :
[ US -> Iran War -> UFO files -> World -> Politics -> ..]
We are evidently very near “end-times” peak human-iod madness whatever that means in practice..
—
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/6-bodies-found-in-union-pacific-boxcar-in-laredo-texas-at-mexican-border-police-say/
We are certainly near a turning point. Whether or not that is end times remains to be seen.
Just more hoping
A belief that the AI messiah will save the Core from the Hordes
I pulled this from a comment at MOA. Please consider the source. This apparantly is 14 Kilos of uranium. Seems like a lot of effort.
*** The uranium was removed from the RV-1 research reactor near Caracas, packaged into secure casks, transported overland to a port, and shipped to the United States for processing and reuse at the Savannah River Site in South Carolina.
The US is ramping up nuclear power plants, expressly to power the AI data centers they are setting up to monitor and control us. They want all available enriched uranium to power them.***
I have said several times that the world, especially the “West,” is very short of uranium. We also are lacking enrichment capability. We have been depending on down blending nuclear bomb materials, but we are running out of supplies to do this.
Look at these steak prices at Wal-Mart = insane!
“This countries going to meltdown soon. Prices on food and gas are going to push people over the edge ”
https://x.com/StealthQE4/status/2053656923833037181
You are joking right, that video reviewer is showing pieces of Angus..
Basically, (many/most) people will have to re-adjust to lower / non ~HQ meat as in chiefly poultry and various non desirable offcuts from the cattle/.. and be very glad while this lasts anyway.
This episode won’t push people over the edge just yet, suburb-ians protesting at these giant super market decrepit parking lots..? They can vent their ~anger only at “elections”, and ~99% candidates allowed to be displayed on these vote booth e-machines are pre-vetted by the uniparty system to begin with.. It’s not called [ prison-planet ] for nothing.., yeh double negative there spanglish for the win!
you can be perfectly healthy without red meat, if yo accept some offal. Eggs and dairy remain cheap and can be sourced locally too.
I would agree.
I discovered this as a meat provider. Clients get the carcass, and I use lungs and kidneys to make burgers. I also eat testicles, spleen, and liver, often raw after freezing. But only a few times a week.
Russian milk and eggs are of great quality, specially now with the fresh grass. For someone like me to not eat red meat is quite a surprise.
scrapping like a farm dog! I bow wow wow down before you..
I took in a group of 120 sheep which were quite inbred. There were several weak animals (5 or 6) and as we butchered them my dogs ate the meat and I ate the offal. The hearts were tiny, explaining their weakness, but the organs were otherwise pristine. I am fine with it so long as my dogs do not look down on me.
I got a little crooked face creeping into my goats for what that’s worth. 7/8 Kiko daddy buck crooked face is a tank of a beast though and his share of the kids are looking mighty fine otherwise too. Any normal person would have a fresh buck already. I’ll think about it.
Never tried lungs of larger animals – is it way less noticeably dense than kidneys or +/- on par ? As per your sentence it seems as almost interchangeable ( for burgers ), correct ?
Lungs are less dense, like a firm mousse. They are like the minimum firmness a mousse would need to be in order to pick up the mousse from the bowl by grasping it. Testicles are like medium firm tofu but infinitely more nutritious.
Yes, and this could be approached from various angles, some would prefer ready-made paté, while others would cook liver themselves etc.
I general, tend to stay away from consuming both cattle and poultry products unless proven higher ground/alt. site sourced and ~verified policy on non grain ( spoiled.. ) feed etc.
Mind you, it’s not #1 high-hor$y approach per se, the price then vs known industrial junk is not that much elevated ( upto now ).. Could/will change eventually though.
~Food-ish tangents are weird these dayz, I’d assume not as much in your locale, but try ask some “westerners” how often per week they eat say raw onion, really oily fish, cabbage, lentils, various sour non added sugar yogurts, non chem treated tree nuts, or even ~just apples etc.. They usually look at you as in E.T. no comprendo mode.. because that’s not offered in ffood chains as per since their childhood, and disappeared from family-household praxis / memory generations ago anywayz..
I had to each time teach staffers in super market to display also few of these yet non ripe ~green bananas out there as well – because some people like to time the ripening-aging process by themselves at home.. etc.
You can be healthy but you’re unlikely to be at or near peak performance, unless with offal one is heavily focusing on heart and liver, and kidney fat, with a good half of it raw (not including the fat). Taurine, carnosine, coenzyme Q(10), and creatine are performance nutrients.
Yes, the trick being: firstly as a base layer eat lot of vegetarian yet extra high micro-nutrients content ala lentils ( though must there perform the trick w. turning plants locked-in Fe/Ca/.. into human gut solubles via ~acid-citrus, himal.salts “agents” etc ). And secondly upgrade such intro diet w. at least some occasional min. amount of highest grade meat, oily fish, .. ft. these perf. nutrients, .. as you just listed mentioned.
In terms of [ Taurine ], the highest ranking supposedly goes to Turkey ( dark m. section though ).. as high as +400mg in their upper legs and tigh aka <5x vs. beef-lamb-pigs, or even ~100x vs eggs content..
https://blog.thermoworks.com/turkey-meat-white-dark/
–
..beef contains 150 to 200 mg of [ Carnosine ] per 100 g, poultry 70 to 200 mg per 100 g, and mackerel approximately 200 mg per 100 g.
(breast)
–
[ Q10] Meat and poultry—including beef, pork, and chicken—contain moderate amounts (1–3 mg per 100g), with darker cuts generally offering higher..
The CoQ10 content varied from not detected in the hempseed press cake and the fish meat to 84.80 µg/g in the pumpkin press cake and 383.25 µg/g in the lyophilized chicken hearts; very good recovery rates and relative standard deviations (RSDs) were obtained for the pumpkin press cake (100.9–116.0% with RSDs between 0.05–0.2%) and the chicken hearts (99.3–106.9% CH with RSDs between 0.5–0.7%), showing the analytical method’s trueness and precision and thus its accuracy.
Angus is just the ubiquitous black beef animal that can handle rough pastures and heavy grain feedlot finishing. They’re fine animals but there’s nothing upmarket about Angus. It’s purely lipstick on a pig marketing. When industry finds its cash cow and that cash cow proceeds to capture 90pc of the market, Capitalist used car salesman culture dictates that you start marketing beef as 100% Angus because that’s pretty much all there is anyway, so why wouldn’t you?
Now if some consortium they started marketing organic grassfed beef as 100% Murray Grey, I’d be tempted to grab one off the shelf the next time I did a walk of shame through the supermarket. Fuck Wagyu.
Angus was meant as notch up segment in that vid context as the guy was grabbing inside the cold isle various chicken package options as well. That cattle has most likely seen the outdoors at least for small % / %% portion of life comparatively speaking..
Yes, you are correct, obviously organic-grassfed is another league completely.
Got it. Videos on X don’t play for me anymore. I would still counter facetiously that eating beef is a human right in Murka not a step up, even if the package comes from Brazil or Argentina, or all three lol.
Beef animals spend their whole short lives on pasture and hay (winter) and only get sent to the feedlots for grain fattening (marbling) their last couple months. Grassfed animals just the same except they get fattened at home with alfalfa.
You are a steak…
your house hopefully… “Uncle Jack” 🤦♂️
The world is heading toward what could become the largest energy crisis in modern history, with oil shortages potentially forcing demand rationing within weeks, according to a leading expert in the oil and gas industry.
“We’re not talking months or quarters. In the next couple of weeks, you will have to rationalize demand by more than during COVID,” says Eric Nuttall, Eric Nuttall, partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners.
One way to reduce consumption would be work-from-home mandates, similar to measures adopted by governments in South Korea and Singapore amid concerns over supply shortages, he says.
“This is by far the biggest energy crisis that anybody alive is experiencing,” says Nuttall.
“There remains a lot of apathy in the market, because I just don’t think people can wrap their heads around it.”
Nuttall says crude may need to rise to US$150 a barrel in coming weeks to curb consumption because “we simply can’t deplete inventories at a constant rate.”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2026/05/01/the-world-is-weeks-away-from-rationing-oil-demand-as-prices-rise-eric-nuttall/
Modi Urges Indians to Conserve Fuel as Oil Shock Spreads
“India’s Prime Minister called on the nation to work from home, travel less, and conserve fuel to help the government save foreign exchange.
“In the current situation, we must place great emphasis on saving foreign exchange,” Narendra Modi said, as quoted by Reuters. The prime minister also urged Indians to stop buying gold, again to conserve foreign exchange. Modi also called on farmers to reduce their fertilizer use by as much as 50%.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Modi-Urges-Indians-to-Conserve-Fuel-as-Oil-Shock-Spreads.html
Doesn’t sound good!
Yes, e-vultures out there waiting for desirable diesel specimens not merely drop in price but rather in desperation to be given almost for free at used car sales points and posh brand dealerships. Yes, won’t happen in reality / meaningful time horizon (as peoplez hopium for return to bAU) yet nice scene to envision nevertheless..
I’ve just booked a massive refurbishment of my house hopefully it is all done and paid for before any rationing begins
Make it a house befitting the name and don’t forget the mirror in the ceiling.
Now the elections are over and time to tell the public the truth that the economy is in a ” financial emergency ” . Eating less cooking oil is patriotism . The oil bill of India was $ 120 billion per year just went to $ 240 . Currency depreciated by 10% in two months . Central bank spent $ 20 billion in intervention . LPG is gone . Jet fuel is gone . Watch out below .
Video not available in the US.
How come no one is mentioning the water scarcity in the Western US due to lack of snowmelt? Hoover Dam, which created Lake Mead Reservoir was only 3 feet above turbine shut down on April 10. Water allocation now only 9% to farms. Cities about to go dark. I don’t think this is AI fear porn.
Winters 2023-24 and 2024-25 in contrast had huge snow melt and everyone thought the water shortage was over. Not so fast, buster.
This is indeed a disturbing video. It is called, Hoover Dam GOES DARK as Colorado’s Snow VANISHES – Southwest in TOTAL CRISIS!
Hoover Dam turbines have stopped running. The issue is that the water level is too low because of a lack of snow melt this year (plus cumulative problems in the past). This affects all of the Southwest, including Phoenix and Los Angeles. It affects both water and electricity supply. This will be a huge problem for the SouthWest.
one of my most treasured books, is a school atlas, dated 1900…
in it, large section of the map of the USA is annoted thus:
The Great American Desert… (covering the entire south western region.) My atlas of course, was printed before the Hoover dam was constructed.
14 years ago, in my book “The End of More”—I Quoted Steven Chu, Then the US secreary of Energy:
//////“I don’t think the American public has gripped in its gut what could happen. We’re looking at a scenario where there’s no more agriculture in California. I don’t actually see how they can keep their cities going.” Steven Chu, US Secretary of Energy, 2009//////
his comment was about CA, but it applies to the entire area.
You cannot build cities for millions in deserts.
If you do, on limited water resources, they will expand until their water is used up. the jevons paradox is a universal law.
no doubt, the residue of flat earthers left in OFW will continue to scream Hoax! Hoax!—much like a rapturemonger jumps up and down flapping his arms expecting to be taken up on high,
That is quite a quote from Steven Chu.
“I don’t think the American public has gripped in its gut what could happen. We’re looking at a scenario where there’s no more agriculture in California. I don’t actually see how they can keep their cities going.”
The Great American desert describes the area. Someone claimed that that the 50-year period used for estimating future rainfall was, in fact, much wetter than the longer-term average.
There are two solutions. One take water from Canadian North West and pipe it to the US South West. This would require a strong leader in DC. The second is desalinization, which requires a huge amount of energy. Can Elon’s computers in orbit beam back energy for use in desalinization? (SPS)
We can of course do nothing and just let the US South West empty out.
Even if we do decide to take action it will take time, decades. During those decade the South West will need to empty out for a few decades.
as i pointed out in a previos comment—the USA is ”full” and people are now in conflict with one another over the scraps of whats left
In retrospect it was not appropriate to let someone named Steven Chu to run USA’s energy policy when his allegiance was to China
ah yes kulm
a chinese spy was bound to mis-state the water situation in the american southwest…
the hoover dam is probably just a hologram anyway….
i would give you an eyeroll if i thought you were worth the exertion involved..
Most US federal personnel are not loyal to the US.
Mercenaries rarely are. That’s all careerists are. They aren’t loyal to anything but advancing their career.
If you want loyalty, you are asking for a tribal organization of society, which careerists despise. The ruling class , for the most part, are made up of careerists. They’d hate living in a more tribal society. Don’t confuse the Cold War or Cold War redux with tribalism. The U.S.’ s “beef” with the BRICS is not based on blood feuds. Tribal conflicts are often “blood fueds” long-running disputes that span many many generations.
I can’t remember seeing any flat earthers on OFW. A few expanding earthers, perhaps.
Are these flat earth people real, or are they a filament of your imagination, Norman?
It must be almost ten years ago when you were frothing at the mouth about how global warming was going to turn the American Southwest into even more of a desert. I didn’t disagree with you that that might happen, and I pointed out that there are several multi-decadal mega-droughts in that region in the pre-historic record (before the arrival of the Spanish).
Major Prehistoric Megadroughts (800–1600 AD)
Researchers have identified several key periods of extreme aridity using tree-ring data:
Late 800s (863–884): An early, severe multi-decade drought.
Mid-1100s (1130–1151/1130–1180): A intense, long-lasting drought that coincided with the decline and reorganization of the Chaco regional system.
Late 1200s (1276–1297): This event is famously linked to the abandonment of Mesa Verde and other Chaco Canyon settlements, with some areas seeing drought conditions last until 1313.
Late 1500s (1571–1592): An extreme 23-year drought, long considered one of the worst, which may be associated with the 1576 cocoliztli epidemic in New Spain.
Moreover, Second Century AD (100s): A newly discovered 50-year drought during this period suggests these events have occurred throughout history.
I’m feeling optimistic today in regards to Ww3 scheduled for Europe.
Russia is in a war time economy right now. Missile and drone manufacturing is perhaps 3x what’s being expended in Ukraine. All gearing up for Europe. At the same time Europe has neutered it’s industrial capacity with energy starvation. All preparation for the scheduled event
The grand plan was 500 f35s in Europe purchased from the USA. USA is struggling tone en replenish it’s stocks of munitions. The oil shock hasn’t even started yet. IMO those F35 will not get built. They are no longer critical in relavency in the new warfare emerging. What is critical is inexpensive precision weapons crated with como lyba available components. A transition Russia itself is just beginning but has a large head start.
Russia simply doesn’t have the logistics to put troops onto all of Europe. They don’t even have the logistics to put troops in all of Ukraine. They do have the ability to flatten western Europe military and industry. A capability that grows daily.
Will EU be able to continue it’s cash and weapons supply to Ukraine when the oil shock its it’s economy is already almost destroyed from voluntary energy consumption reduction? I wonder.
Are Ukraines attacks on Russias energy infrastructure painful? Oh hell yes. In fact they are a existential threat. Russia already has the cure which is cut off supply to Ukraine in it’s missile inventory. Ever day that inventory grows. Meanwhile Europe struggles to produce much. Right now time is still on Russias side to continue to take the attacks from Ukraine without cutting off it’s supply.
When COVID thingy was on full swing less jets in the air. Very peaceful. Trump very well could be the greatest peace president of the USAs history. That’s how I’m seeing it today. Peace is going to break out. Oh boy is peace going to break out.
When supply chains are severed only one thing matters. Who has the goods now. That goes double for militarys. I’ll pay you Wednesday for a hamburger today don’t fly.
When countries are in terrible shape economically, starting a war looks like a good idea. Russia, Ukraine, and Europe are all in poor economic shape. GDP goes up because even spending on weapons, whatever they are, is included in GDP. Bringing down refineries and buildings is not negative GDP.
Of course, if there is not enough oil and other fossil fuels in the future, there is practically no damage done in bringing down refineries and building that cannot actually be used in the future. It all seems to become a big game. Soldiers are not too unhappy, because they are getting paid for their work in the military.
There is no good way to fix the problem. Sufficient inexpensive energy of the right kinds would work, but this is not available.
Thank you for the reply Gail! Of course no one knows what is going to happen. I form a lot of my opinions using what was observed during COVID. Empty shelves. In systems where everything is dependent on everything else you can have a lot of things stop working in a short time period. Of course this won’t be good for citizens but I wonder if there is a silver lining.
Manufacturing capability was a huge factor in world war 2. In many of the wars since supply chains and energy were unaffected. War materials could be produced without hinderence.
As we see on the Iran war stockpiles and munition depletion are huge factors. The finite nature of our world is demonstrated.
The premise of a war is that you destroy the enemies ability to manufacture munitions and other needed things do they are unable to continue fighting. Now we see energy reduction approaching. I see many of the effects being the same as war. Supply chains destroyed..
Now leaders may see war as a way out. If supply chain destruction occurs prior to war could that be the same as a enemy doing the same thing so war is not possible?
Perhaps I’m grasping at straws. I see the whole WW2 event as being a isolated event where prosperity resulted. Materials energy and habitat is what allows prosperity. Destroying those things is inherently contrary to prosperity in a finite world. Of course the argument can be made if you kill enough of the enemy there is more left for you. This is particularly true when habitat is considered.
I’m not sure any of the economic beliefs related to war are true. I think many of these beliefs consider resources infinite and the world one big shopping mall where the victor gets the spoils. The true nature of the world is finite resources. Of course this is a argument for war. If there’s not enough then someone has to go. There is another true nature of the world. Connectedness. Connected economies. Connected supply chains. From this perspective destroying the enemies assets is counterproductive because they are assets you share.
People have a lot of different ideas about what war is. Not surprising because it can be many different things. Generally it is regarded as effective for creating prosperity. war is a way of operating that has a long history. I think good arguments can be made that war is not effective on creating prosperity. War primarily creates dis function. IMO the Iran war will create profound disfunction. War takes a lot of things to make it happen. We may be at a place where war creates such disfunction that it can not continue. Why? Fragile interconnected operating systems that did not exist in a previous wars. Since everything thing is interconnected profound disfunction occurs quickly. There are no winners it’s about who loses more.. In this case I am wondering if the disproportionate disfunction of the Iran war because of energy reduction could make the materials necessary for the Russo-;EU war unavailable. Since that will be a war between nuclear armed nations I would regard that as a desirable outcome. No winners no losers. We couldn’t do the rumble because the hardware store didn’t have pipe and there was no gas for the Chevy.
If humanity could come to a new objective understanding about wars effectiveness I would consider that desirable. I think the beginning of that understanding was present after WW2 but we forgot. We are good at forgetting.
IMO it would be desirable to reduce the massive consumption of resources war entails. So there are possibilities for desirable outcomes and catastrophic outcomes in what lies ahead. Mostly the latter.
the current system is not sustainable we are definitely going to need high oil prices in this new system that wayoil companies remain profitable to keep the oil prices High is the hard part do we continuously have war or do we bring in a completely new system financially speaking.this could be accomplished if the stock market was wiped out and the new system was rolled out probably as a digital currency like the blockchain followed with a very low interest rate perhaps negative.imagine the joy of the people who are holding cryptocurrency if Bitcoin went to one million dollars.I know quite a few people who are invested in cryptocurrency and think this is what’s going to happen.
You are right about no longer being able to depend on promises for tomorrow, also.
To be perfectly honest, Russia in poor economic shape is news to me. Unemployment is 0%, lower salaries increased most, traffic is unpleasantly high, cafe’s are doing good business. I go to town for business mostly on Tuesday and Wednesday because the other days lines are too long or parking is difficult. I still remember when the central square was nearly devoid of cars.
That is happening at the expense of Europe and other countries around the world. Their consumption and production is going down so that Russia’s can go up. I wonder who’s side the people favoring the war against it are on, at this point.
We’re locked in for massive oil shock and years long record high oil prices at this point, even if the strait reopens today, the world is fucked.
Let’s do the basic math here, oil tankers travel at around 25km/hr, as fast as a bicycle. So even if the strait reopens today, it will take them anywhere from weeks-2 months to travel to their destinations around the world. In fact, one of the main reasons why we haven’t seen even worse effects is that the last remaining oil tankers were only just starting to reach their destinations last week.
And consider this, this is for all the tankers trapped in the straits, hundreds of them, but nowhere enough to supply a oil starved world by themselves. Once they go out there’s only some relief, there’s still a need for all the other tankers outside of the gulf to go into Persian gulf to start loading oil/gas and fertilizer and critical supplies and for a constant supply chain. Once again, the travel time to get new ships inside of the Gulf will take weeks, and weeks more to go out and deliver their cargo. It will likely be more than a year before the oil delivery schedule goes back to normal.
Oh and realistically, it’s not like all the ships will rush in and out of the gulf once a peace deal is announced. A few ships will trickle though at the start, and it might take days/weeks for the world to have enough confidence that the peace deal is solid enough for the majority of ships to make the transit.
And that’s not even considering the fact that oil/gas wells can become permanently damaged if they’re sealed, with their output declining the longer they remain sealed. And again, even if the strait reopens today, it might be weeks before enough new ships arrive for the gulf states to start reloading again. Not to mention the fact that quite a bit of oil/gas infrastructure has been damaged/destroyed in the war. No matter what happens, it looks like the oil/gas output of the gulf states have been permanently damaged. Nobody will know just how much oil/gas those closed wells can output after this, or how fast that they can repair the damage, not even the gulf states themselves.
There’s also the fact that countries all over will be buying much more usual to make up for this two month shortfall, as well as to replenish their reserves and to expand them greatly, because who knows when the fighting might flare up again. Which means that the world will likely see record high oil/gas purchases for years, until every nation has glutted itself on oil. Which means higher prices of course.
Oh , and Russia’s oil refinery and oil/gas loading ports are getting hammered by Ukraine right now. Reducing yet another major global source of oil. And it’s not like the fighting there will end anytime soon.
So yeah, even if everything goes back to normal tomorrow, oil prices will likely remain sky high for years, maybe until 2030. And of course, the standoff could last for who knows how many more months. Maybe until next year? And there’s always the chance that the fighting could flare up again and even more oil/gas infrastructure is hit. Most country’s oil stockpile will start to run dry by June/July too.
The point is that the world is locked in at point. There’s no preventing it, not unless we find a way to teleport the oil to where it needs to go.
The one thing that makes me question this is the fact that “years-long-high-prices” don’t seem to happen, unless you count the shift from the “under $20 barrel price” to higher prices. What seems to happen is recession, and some buyers being unable to afford goods made with oil. Or too much oil supply, and the excess supply bringing oil prices back down.
The high prices in 2009 to 2013 happened in a time of very low interest rates and lots of addition to government debt. Demand was being supported by this growing debt. The high prices and low interest rates were what enabled the production of oil from shale. But when the volume of shale available collided withe the quantity of oil that was actually affordable, it proved too much for the rest of the market, and the oil price fell. We have been living with lower prices ever since.
This time it’s like 79 supply side. Actual removal of energy from economy.. 79 was five percent reduction in supply not 25 percent. Demand destruction and economic downturn will indeed have to.be deep to match removing 25 percent cold turkey. It was just oil in 79. All other critical.materials flowed.
this is all part of a plan raviuppal the elders knew that eventually the stock market would collapse but they had to find a way to keep the truth of peak oil from ever reaching the perception of the human race they needed a distraction and a whole new way of life for humanity this could only be accomplished with high oil prices and a whole new financial system that will be fairer for the whole world of course war will not continue it is unsustainable to make the system more fairer you have to eliminate all the winners by that I mean the winners in the economic system make it a more level playing field all this will be accomplished in this year.
There are other issues that is rarely discussed if the straits is opened now:
1. Damage infrastructure. Need ships to bring in new stuff to replace damaged stuff.
2. Ship owners are not keen to let ships into the Gulf just in case they cannot come out
3. How much oil can be loaded per day if the loading pier is so busy? Ships queuing up?
4. Insurance cost too expensive?
5. Rich countries will bid for the oil
Ravi, I think I mentioned this before but I do not see it being included in anyone’s calculations for a restart. The crap on the hull can slow a ship’s speed by 40%. I used to swim in Persian Gulf off the coast of Dhahran. It is as warm as a bathtub this time of year.
Ships anchored for long periods should have their hulls cleaned every 30 to 90 days depending on the region. Because vessels at anchor lack the anti-fouling benefit of moving water, algae and barnacles build up quickly—often requiring action within BIMCO Hull Fouling Clauses.
Factors Impacting Cleaning Frequency
Water Temperature & Climate: Warm waters (like the tropics) accelerate marine growth. Cleaning is usually required every 30 to 45 days.
VZ , human behavior and collapse .
Most collapse analysis focuses on economics and politics.
But there’s a psychological layer that explains why
populations don’t resist even when they can see it happening.
What would have caused riots 10 years ago becomes
background noise. The CIA didn’t predict the USSR collapse
partly because their analysts had normalized Soviet
dysfunction.
2. Learned helplessness — after enough cycles of “we voted
for change and got more of the same,” populations stop
believing their actions change outcomes. This is measurable
psychologically.
3. Savior dependency — instead of building institutions,
societies outsource the fix to a charismatic leader. Works
short term, accelerates collapse long term.
Venezuela is the clearest current example of all three
running simultaneously. Maduro is gone but nothing changed —
because the psychological infrastructure that kept him in
power is still intact. .
The structure that has organized global economic and political life for three generations is in late-stage decline, the decline is structural rather than cyclical, and it will keep failing because the conditions that produced it no longer exist . The lifestyle you ordered is no longer available .
I agree that the decline is structural. But John Michael Greer argues that it tends to come in steps. In some sense, the steps are part of the built in structure of cycles. We can’t seem to get away from them. Everything in natural depends on cycles.
Thanks for the posts Ravi!
What happens when your lifestyle is out of stock?
In tribal cultures there are examples of acceptance.
Farley Mowats book snow walker.
Elders in time of famine would go out for a long long walk in the snow.
Now there is just anger. If the lifestyle you ordered is out of stock someone is to blame and someone will pay.
Certainly there should be accountability from a criminal justice system but that will not change a thing.
The lifestyle desired is not just out of stock but discontinued by manufacturer.
People will not be pleased.
https://youtu.be/UrTAe1oud8U?si=1y1PL3PbHuBa1W5G
world pop to go to 4 billion
Rose “the Woke: Butaker : Half of the global population will die!
Caledon “Kulm the Status Quo” Hockley: Not the better half.
Lol there’s a vastly higher chance that we have a population of 4B by the end of the decade than a hundred years from now.
I would say by the end of 2028
Yeah maybe. That’s just around the corner.
Would just pumping oil at minimum levels and dumping it on the surface be a feasible way to avoid well shut in as storage reaches capacity? Seems like there is not a lot of water tables to worry about in the middle east. Or just flare it? There has been speculation that the recent oil spill seen off kharg island in Persian Gulf is dumping oil there is no storage for. Wouldn’t flaring be preferable? Straight from well to fire. Pump into a tank with the top cut off a safe distance away from wells anand light it.?
that would be a neat solution for certain flat earthers who insist that global warming is a hoax…. (from donnie downwards)
It sounds to me like you are a big Trump fan Norman. The oil shock created by his actions are going to radically reduce carbon release for the planet. Make America Greta Already
oil-billionaire trump supporters had made massive contributions to getting him elected—-
3 months ago. oil was around $60 barrel
donnie attacks iran…
oil is now $110 a barrel..
thats all you need to know….
Uh, fellas, this is a peak oil Collapse blog, not a pin the tail on the donkey blog.
Only Collapse reduces carbon releases and only Collapse makes oil more valuable. The rest is political cover.
the working economy of the world is dependent on the ever-rising price of oil, and has been for about a century or so…
if you happen to own that oil, you will do anything to sustain that oil value, even if it means war..
even if you know that the means of sustaining the oil economy means ultimately destroying the oil economy—
why???
because you see only rising profit margins for the next month or two—that is the short-sightedness of oil-enterprise…
you fantisise that ”something” will sustain oil value forever—just as your dear leader promised….which is why you voted for him, and gave him money.
he must promise that to sustain the fantasies of all concerned…
The price of oil in general has only gotten cheaper in real terms during the age of oil. Welcome to efficiencies of scale.
deflation is what will sustain the value of oil for a few more years.
I don’t vote.
Just giving Norm a friendly poke not a mean one. I do think it’s humerous Gretas greatest ally turned out to be Trump.
Trump is not an accelerationist he’s a decelerationist. We covered that topic last year.
My vote is for Iran to announce the exportation of free crude to be refined for poor countries. Book the passages for the loaded tankers, give the US 48hrs notice, blitzkrieg social media with LEGO videos, and then send all the outbound and empty inbound tankers through the blockade in formation. Check.
It could be stored in a man made lake in the desert. You would lose the light components to evaporation, but that is something the world has a lot of. 1B barrels would be a depression 10km2 in area and 20 meters average depth.
Not enough time for starters
obviously it can be bulldozed in several days so the time is there. i suppose you could use a liner. the spent crater between mecca and riyadh where the saudis want to store their nuclear waste would probably need one day of bulldozing to prepare.
I’m going to pretend you didn’t just say that and that you do actually realize how big a hole that is and all that that entails.
Maybe they could recreate the Soviet Chagan nuclear test on steroids that intentionally produced Atomic Lake and kill two birds with one stone by putting the nuclear in Big Nuclear Scare. Or better yet rent a dinosaur killer from outer space. Either way would probably glass the bottom and they wouldn’t need the astronomically sized liner.
A good operator on a d9 cat can move the world. Some clay content in the soil would probably help. Creating a oil lake not a problem.
The problem is oil like all flammable liquids is basically a duplex pyro material. Both materials are safe until you add the other. Oxygen being the second material. This is oils off the charts primary desirable characteristic along with energy density. It’s safe in the ground away from oxygen and ignition sources. Pumping it to the surface adds the second material to the duplex pyro.. no it’s not done in perfect proportion like a ICE engine but as soon as 02 is present it’s something different. O2 is dangerous stuff.
Make that tens of thousands of D9s and as many dump trucks and as many excavators to load the sand onto the trucks. And like you were getting at, sand doesn’t push, it flows out the ends of the blades even if you got angled ends. Dirt pushes. Sand doesn’t push. So you need excavators mainly and not dozers. And how do you fit all that equipment in the hole? How do you drive the loaded down dump trucks in the sand?
It’s not remotely possible under the circumstances dog.
Oxygen is dangerous stuff, like I was saying the other day about the pros and cons of being an aerobic organism. And how anaerobic life (oil) and aerobic life don’t mix well, though they complement each other perfectly such that Life itself is made possible.
Obviously when it comes to possible attacks, keep in mind that there is no protection now. Distant storage in Rotterdam and Egypt can be destroyed with drones or missiles. Underground storage can be destroyed by Oreshniks. The same applies for nuclear plants. A lake is as vulnerable as other means of surface storage. And it’s not like there are better options.
When there are no storage options, bargaining with the situation is also not an option for the fearless mullah mind.
Defeating the blockade with overwhelming propaganda the US can’t refuse (free oil for the needy) is Option A. Option B is clearing a coastal path with missiles and maybe upping the price north of zero depending on what you think the propaganda did accomplish even though it fell short of breaking the blockade. Option C is losing your industrial productivity.
I am thinking more of the Gulf monarchs and their decision making. I do agree with both of you that there are no good options. But these are artificial dynasties of a particular breed of people looking at their own mortality and fall from glory. It is unlikely that the (overwhelmingly muslim) locals will treat them nicely. They will do unexpected things on the way down. Indeed I think the UAE elites are already unhinged and in deep trouble.
But making an oil lake may not be the worst decision. Specially if it is in an uninhabited part of the kingdom and can help maintain steady pressure. The aforementioned crater, near Afif, could hold IMO about 5B barrels. It is very close to the pipeline to Yanbu.
Broadening the discussion beyond Iran. I see. In A World Made By The Hand, which is my world, I’ve always said that it makes no sense for the Hand to permanently shut-in middle east energy infrastructure that is essential to the success of Phase 2 of the Non-Public Degrowth Agenda. And so far my understanding, despite the fog of war, is that none has been.
In your truly horrifying, dystopian world with no Hand, lol, I think that’s a really good line of thought to follow.
Those bad monarchs are not compatible with the social nationalisms, that’s for sure. Where do bad folks go when they die?
They don’t go to heaven where the angels fly. They go down to the lake of fire and fry. Won’t see ’em again till the fourth of July.
Well there you go. As long as a waring party doesn’t send a drone for s visit. Oil in it’s natural state is bunkered. On the surface it’s gonna get flared. That seems to be the trend around the world even when it’s in tanks.
daft
yep
It seems like some portions of the petroleum burn well, but not others. Clearly natural gas burns well this way. Even gasoline burns well this way. But the heavier portions don’t work so well. It is difficult to set fire to lubricants and asphalt.