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Some of my frequent commenters know that I recently returned from a visit to Southeast Asia. In this post, I would like to present a little energy-related information about this part of the world. Most of my information is from published energy reports, but a little is from my visit to Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. I have included these countries in my Southeast Asia totals, plus Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and (to the extent I could find the data), amounts for a few other small countries included in the grouping used by the United Nations in its “Southeast Asia” grouping.
While Southeast Asia shares most of the energy problems of the rest of the world, it seems to me that this region is somewhat better placed to handle the energy shortfalls that lie ahead than many other regions. Southeast Asia’s warm, wet climate is helpful, as is its supply of coal, particularly in Indonesia. Many of the people in this part of the world are used to living in cramped quarters–three generations in a large one-room home, for example. Abundant forests provide a renewable source of energy. Religious traditions help provide order. These factors may work together to allow the economies of these countries to continue to some extent, even as much of the rest of the world pushes in the direction of collapse.
[1] Southeast Asia is finding it must import ever-larger amounts of oil to meet the needs of its growing economies.
Figure 1 shows that Southeast Asia produces a little oil itself. This oil production (blue line) reached a peak in 2000 and has fallen since then. Such a pattern is common among the countries of the world–oil production starts falling once the easily extracted oil is removed.
Southeast Asia’s oil consumption (orange line) has generally been growing. Up until 1993, the area produced enough oil for its own needs. More recently, Southeast Asia’s oil needs have been met through increasing imports of oil. Thus, Southeast Asia has been a net importer of oil for over 30 years. With reduced travel related to Covid in 2020 and 2021, there was a dip in consumption and imported oil in these years. By 2023, however, consumption was back above 2019 levels, and imports were higher than in 2019.
[2] Natural gas production in Southeast Asia reached a peak in 2015, and it has been declining ever since.
The situation with natural gas production is similar to that of oil. Southeast Asia’s natural gas supply reached a peak in 2015, and it has been falling ever since.
Figure 2 shows that once natural gas production (blue line) began to decline, Southeast Asian natural gas consumption (orange line) started to flatten out and even decline a bit. Natural gas exports began to decline, as well, beginning more than a decade before the peak in production was reached. Some of the natural gas exports are liquefied natural gas exports, under long term contracts. These cannot easily be cut back because of inadequate production.
Today, in many parts of the world, there is high demand for natural gas to balance out electricity generated by wind and solar. Southeast Asia, which has a declining supply of natural gas available for export, cannot provide much natural gas to help the countries dealing with this intermittency problem. But, as we will see, Southeast Asia itself seems to have mostly stayed away from wind and solar. This is a plus.
It seems likely that both oil and natural gas extraction within Southeast Asia will continue to decline. This is a worry for the future.
[3] Southeast Asia’s coal supply has been growing, helping to support its industry and exports.
Coal production is still growing in Southeast Asia, with Indonesia being the primary source of production.
A recent report says that coal production in Indonesia in 2024 increased by 7.1% over production in 2023, showing that growth in coal production continues. Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam are all importers of coal, much of which likely comes from Indonesia.
[4] Southeast Asia’s per capita energy consumption has been rising, due to increasing coal consumption and the addition of other types of energy, made possible by fossil fuels.
Hydroelectricity seems to be the single largest category of “All Other” energy supply. Building dams to produce hydro-electric power has been made possible by the availability of coal to produce concrete and steel.
Another major category of “All Other” seems to be the burning of wood chips.
A third category of “All Other” energy production is geothermal power. Both Indonesia and the Philippines generate electric power using geothermal energy. Geothermal works best when a country has volcanic mountains that can provide the high temperatures required. Southeast Asia seems to have more than its share of volcanoes.
Wind turbines and solar panels seem to be relatively little used in this part of the world. Nuclear does not seem to be used at all in this part of the world.
This combination of All Other energy supply seems to be more stable than the more common “wind and solar” version of All Other energy supply. Also, nuclear electricity now seems to have a uranium supply problem, as I discussed in a recent post. It is a high-tech solution that poor countries, such as those in Southeast Asia, are likely to have considerable problems trying to emulate.
[5] Southeast Asia has multiple advantages that allow its population to get along with relatively little energy, if fossil fuels become less available.
As mentioned in the introduction, the mild climate of Southeast Asia allows people to get along without heating or cooling their homes. In fact, homes don’t need to be very substantial if they don’t need insulation. They can easily be rebuilt with local materials.
On our trip, we saw several one-room homes in which up to three generations lived together. Of course, people everywhere would like fancy homes with lots of rooms, indoor bathrooms, and heating and cooling. But these things require fossil fuels, both to initially build and to maintain. If people can learn to live in very modest housing, it greatly reduces the fossil fuel energy needs of an economy.
It seems to me that if the world is heading in the direction of not enough fossil fuels, Southeast Asia is a region that can get along without much harm, even on less fuel than is available today. Farming seems to be done with little use of fuel, right now. Many families are used to living in shared living spaces. Daily markets, selling meat, including live chickens and ducks, seem to be common.
Based on my calculations, the per-capita energy consumption of Southeast Asia is about half that of China and about 21% of the US’s average per-capita energy consumption.
Economies in warm, wet climates have an advantage because agriculture can be done year-around. Without fossil fuels, Southeast Asia would not be able to support as large a population as today, but it seems likely that these countries could still support a substantial, if lower, population. The Garden of Eden mentioned in the Book of Genesis in the Bible seemed to have some of the characteristics of Southeast Asian countries today. If “warm and wet” was a solution in the early days, it may be a solution in the future.
[6] Southeast Asia has nowhere near the scale of energy supplies to replace China, with its huge industrial output.
China’s electricity production in 2023 was 23.0 times its electricity production in 1985. Southeast Asia’s electricity production in 2023 was 12.8 times its electricity production in 1985. Thus, China’s growth rate has been close to twice as fast as Southeast Asia.
While China’s rapid growth has been impressive, it is very hard to maintain. Southeast Asia’s slower growth curve, which is still somewhat rising, would seem to be easier to maintain. If it does start to fall, it will hopefully be a slower fall.
[7] Indonesia, which is part of Southeast Asia, is a world leader in coal production.
Coal tends to be an inexpensive source of heat and electricity and is essential in making steel. The industrial revolution around the world was started with the use of coal. Coal is still used heavily in manufacturing. While the wealthy countries of the world talk a great deal about carbon dioxide and climate change, the poorer countries of the world–including those in Southeast Asia–continue to use coal, to the extent it is available.
Worldwide, China is number one in coal production (93.10 exajoules), according to the 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy. India is in second place, with production of 16.65 exajoules. Indonesia is close behind in third place, with coal production of 15.73 exajoules. The advantage that Indonesia has is that its population (281,000) is much lower than that of India (1.4 billion), so that its coal-benefit relative to population is much greater than that of India.
I don’t think that we know how long coal production will continue to grow. Theoretically, how long production will continue to grow is tied to the amount of coal reserves, but it is questionable whether today’s published reserve numbers are very useful in determining the quantity available at a price customers are willing to pay. The 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy report shows quite low coal reserves for Southeast Asia, and quite high coal reserves for the US, Russia, and Australia. This same report has a note at the top of the page showing coal reserves that says, “The methodology and timing of updating reserve numbers is under review.” The authors of the report seem to be saying, “Expect big revisions of these reserve numbers in the future.”
[8] People of Southeast Asia seem to have a tradition of being hard working and co-operative.
One report describes the work culture of Southeast Asia as “Community oriented, with respect for seniors, and flexibility.” The same report indicates that maintaining a calm demeanor and not showing anger in public are important in countries like Thailand and Indonesia. The article indicates that smiling plays a critical role in communication, keeping the interactions positive.
My husband and I were impressed by how happy the Buddha figures seemed to be.
Religions seem to help provide a safety net for the poor. Working as a priest gives an option for income for those who would otherwise be unemployed and are willing to study.
[9] The world economy, including Southeast Asia, is already beginning to encounter oil shortfalls. One way they affect the economy is through less growth in long-distance tourism.
There is a temptation to believe that the tourist trade will grow, allowing the economies of Southeast Asia to grow at the same time. However, it is becoming apparent that this doesn’t necessarily work well in a world struggling with inadequate oil supplies.
We saw many examples of buildings, including entire resorts, that had been started and apparently abandoned. In particular, Cambodia seemed to have many buildings that were started as Chinese investments. We were told that these structures had been left without being completed, in or around 2020.
The northern part of Vietnam seemed to be experiencing some of the same difficulty. This partly completed building is from Da Nang, a coastal city in what was formerly North Vietnam.
[10] We will have to wait and see how things really turn out.
Southeast Asia seems to be able to feed an awful lot of people with its rice fields and fish farms, operated with very little fossil fuel input.
There are a lot of pieces of the story we don’t understand. Without enough oil, people may need to stay closer to home. But quite a few people in warm, humid climates may be able to get along, for quite a while, with very modest living arrangements.
Is this where data center growth, coupled with inadequate electricity supply, gets us?
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/maryland-democrats-spark-power-bill-crisis-backfiring-extremist-green-policies
Maryland Democrats’ ‘Extremist’ Green Agenda Sparks Power Bill Crisis Crippling Households
that’s a classic Schad moment.
electricity prices aren’t bad from where I am in the northeast.
all in all, higher prices are just part of the degrowth process that the world is now entering.
Higher energy prices is one of the many negative byproducts of going Green. Europe is already feeling the effects of going Green. “Go Green Go Broke”. The Politicians never factor in, the economic impact it has on their citizens. Paying a lot more for energy just takes money away from the rest of their eCONomy.
I have several times referred to the complexity of the LNG trade . Here is a post at POB which confirms my POV .
LNGGuy
Ignored
02/23/2025 at 1:35 pm
A lot of the large LNG contracts are “take or pay”. The liquefaction facilities don’t want the exposure to E&P commodity prices and are not interested in owning the actual natural gas. They prefer to operate more as just a liquefaction service. They’ll liquefy the gas but it’s up to the end customer to source the gas and get it delivered, via pipeline, to the liquefaction facility. The facility then liquefies it and loads it onto the ship for the customer. What happens after that is up to the customer, the liquefaction facility doesn’t care. I guess what I’m getting at is that the LNG facility doesn’t care about reserves – that’s the customer’s problem.
The “take or pay” part of it comes into account should the customer not source any natural gas to the liquefaction facility. They can decide they don’t need any LNG, but they’re still going to have to pay the facility either way (or declare force majeure – contract penalties).
You can’t just start and stop these cryogenic processes at will without significant thermal stress on the various vessels or piping in the facility, so it’s in everybody’s best interest to keep them online if at all possible.
Also this
” Europe and Asia are buying delivered LNG at a price that is currently extremely profitable $3 for gas, $2 to liquify and ship, and $5 to $7 for profit split among all the middlemen, liquifiers and shippers. The end user is paying $12 or so per mcf currently. That being the case, the price of the raw gas can go up to $8 or $9 per mcf and the system still works. How much gas is available at $8? How much is NA consumption going to fall at $8? How much coal is going to be burned for electricity at $8 per mcf wellhead price?
I doubt that $12 gas is extremely profitable, or that $20 gas would sell very well in Europe. Asia seems to have tolerated prices up in this range in the not too distant past.
$3 US gas is not a price that encourages more investment in the US. $2 to liquefy and ship seems low to Europe. The $2 price is ridiculously low to ship from the US to Asia. As the price of gas goes up, the price of shipping goes up, too, because gas is burned in shipping.
Zerohedge has what I would consider a good analysis of the current natural gas situation, written by John Kemp, energy analyst and founder of JKempEnergy.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/global-gas-prices-surge-anticipating-summer-scramble-refill-storage
Among other things, he says:
The overhead costs in building and operating these liquefaction systems is huge. They seem to be subject to many fires, and much downtime. If interest rates rise, as they have in recent years, I expect this adds considerably to the cost of these systems. I am sure that the owners would like to think that the systems will be useful for 20 or 30 years. I am doubtful that the whole system will operate that long.
All of these things add to “hard to measure overhead costs of the system.”
“The specter of more attacks by Ukrainian saboteur cells”
It seems we had a terroristic attack in Italy, but everything was put under silence and the Oil ship hit by two bombs in Vado Ligure (port in Liguria) has been quickly moved to Greece for ‘repair’.
At least this is what the two articles below are reporting.
Another strange event was the US plane diverted on the Caspian sea back to Rome, for a probable bomb on the plane.
The plane was travelling from US to India and it was very strange that from the Caspian sea was sent back to Rome, instead of landing in Turkey or any other Country near that, but instead it was sent back thousands of miles back from where it was…
These are episodes about drb can have interesting considerations, hope he still wants to comment.
https://www.genova24.it/2025/02/attentato-seajewel-ordigni-savona-indagini-nave-gemella-417016/
https://giuseppesalamone.substack.com/p/attacco-terroristico-ucraino-in-italia
https://www.rainews.it/articoli/2025/02/volo-american-airlines-da-new-york-a-delhi-dirottato-su-fiumicino-per-allarme-bomba-da4691fb-9419-4b80-9f42-b26a78d29369.html
Hey, I saw all these. My guess is that this is MI6, but not much thought about it. Se conosci un grossista di miele in Italia, metti l’ indirizzo qui. Non e’ sanzionato.
I agree with drb . The end of war in Ukraine means that all guarantees issued by the City of London to finance the war get called in leading to a collapse . I had posted a video on the earlier post of Aleks Krainer ” All roads lead to London ” . EU and UK are trying to sabotage the peace process . Macron in Washington today and Starmer in a day or two .
Sasha Stone writes:
I’m Still Here is about Rubens Paiva, who, according to Wikipedia, was a “Brazilian civil engineer and politician who, as a Congressman at the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies, opposed the implementation of the military dictatorship in Brazil in 1964. Due to his involvement with activities deemed subversive by the dictatorial regime, he was arrested by the military forces and subsequently tortured and murdered. His remains were never found.”
That is a perfect description of how the Left sees the Trump administration, even though they lost in a free and fair election to Trump, an election they could have won if they hadn’t installed Joe Biden in 2020, then turned on him, pushed him out of power and installed Kamala Harris, forbidding any kind of democratic process to find a stronger leader.
Their loss is entirely their own fault. They had everything – money, media, celebrities, and power- and they still lost. Much of the reason why they lost is their disconnect from reality. They could not speak to the people, much less address their needs.
That disconnect from reality is imagination gone wrong. It’s too bad they can’t funnel it into telling better stories, making better movies, writing better books – but all of those have been captured by dogma and can only tell the same story over and over again. And that’s what they’re doing here. It must be true that Trump was an unstoppable, extraordinarily evil presence they could not eradicate by normal means and they are helpless against his power.
I hoped that with the second Trump win, the mass delusion would be punctured, but I was wrong. It’s much worse now than it’s ever been. The Woketopians locked away in their doomsday bunker read to me like David Koresh once the FBI announced they were outside.
It’s hard for me to watch people this afraid. To them, the mass deportations are military police and Hitler’s army. To them, purging schools of indoctrination is “book banning.” To them, scaling down government is fascism. I don’t know how to help them see reality. Or how to help them at all.
What is even more ironic in attempting to compare Trump to Brazil in the 1960s or any fascist dictator is that only one side has attempted to jail its political opponent. Only one side spied on and framed their political opponent. Only one side put protesters in solitary and called them terrorists.
Only one side will destroy your entire career over how you voted or a joke on X. Only one side demands conformity and that you obey their Newspeak or else. Only one side censored free speech via social media, violating the First Amendment. And they were just getting started.
Here’s a pro tip – how you know you’re not under the rule of a fascist dictator is that you can call them a fascist dictator in public, and nothing bad will happen to you. They had four years to prove to America that they were the better side, but they failed. Rather than confront that reality, they’ve found a way to pivot away from their faults. And of course, they’re all coming back to X, even Stephen King:
https://sashastone.substack.com/p/how-far-is-too-far-for-doge
“Mars is uninhabitable. And always will be. The belief that we will somehow colonise it in our lifetimes is pitiful.”
-rando on X
https://x.com/monstroso/status/1893632287784190328
Of course the Moon also is.
drb, I always taste these candies when I think to the moon,
I don’t know this company directly, but I think they buy….:
Ambrosoli
Who cares what some woke, BBC actor thinks. Those people are about as far away from real life as its possible to be.
No different from the unicorm hunters who fantasize using weapons which they do not have.
It seems President Trump has been borrowing my arguments.
He’s talking about autism and the Amish.
It’s amazing he has time to check out OFW while in the middle of saving the US and the world from Armageddon!
https://x.com/ShadowofEzra/status/1893032184883064932
Celia Farber comments:
“I don’t interpret this clip as Shadow of Ezra does. I think Trump is using the vehicle, medium “maybe we spray something in the air…” other countries don’t, just to provide stable passage for the rudimentary ELEPHANT he has repeated many times: 1 in 34 American children have “autism,” often followed by “something is wrong.”
“I don’ t think he thinks chemtrails cause “autism” because that fits with precisely no rational scenario, as chemtrails are distributed equally on all citizens.
“No, he’s trying to bring us into what my late friend Rob dubbed “the holy shit vortex,” and he’s using a deflection what could it be? to prepare and shift the ground.
“This doesn’t mean I “trust” him, across the board—only that I like to break down and interpret language patterns, including deflective ones. What is behind it? Is my question.
“And when he said the “Pennsylvania Dutch” (Amish) “…don’t do anything” he can only possibly mean that what they do not do is vaccinate.”
Refresh my memory. Are the Amish autism-free? because that is all that matters.
The AIs are playing coy about precise statistics, but I got one to tell me this:
• Various studies and anecdotal evidence suggest that the prevalence of autism among the Amish is significantly lower than the national average, which is estimated at around 1 in 44 children in the general U.S. population.
And when pressed for details, it told me:
Key Studies
• 2010 Conference Paper: A study presented at a conference indicated that preliminary data identified the presence of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) in the Amish community at a rate of approximately 1 in 271 children. This rate was noted to be lower than that of the general population, although the authors acknowledged that further research was needed to understand the cultural factors influencing these findings.
• 2011 Study: Research published in the Journal of Child Neurology examined autism prevalence in both Amish and non-Amish populations in Ohio. The study found no significant difference in autism rates between the two groups, suggesting that while some reports indicate lower rates, the actual prevalence may be comparable when accounting for various factors.
[What various factors?]
• In the 2011 study published in the Journal of Child Neurology, researchers examined autism prevalence in Amish and non-Amish populations. They accounted for several factors to understand the differences in reported rates of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). Key factors included:
1. Demographic Variables
Age, sex, and socioeconomic status were considered to ensure a comprehensive comparison between the groups.
2. Access to Healthcare
Differences in healthcare access and utilization between the Amish and non-Amish populations were evaluated, as these can influence diagnosis and reporting.
3. Cultural Beliefs
The study looked at cultural attitudes toward medical interventions, including vaccinations and developmental assessments, which can affect diagnosis rates.
4. Diagnostic Practices
Variations in how autism is diagnosed and reported in different communities were examined, especially considering the Amish community’s reliance on traditional practices.
[if the above various factors are left out, do the results of the study show significant differences between Amish and non-Amish ASD rates?]
• If the various factors such as demographic variables, access to healthcare, cultural beliefs, diagnostic practices, and environmental exposures are left out of the analysis, the results of the study may suggest significant differences between Amish and non-Amish Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) rates.
You can have hours of fun chatting with LLMs and other AIs, and you can learn lots of things too.
Of course, they have biases built into their algorithms, but they have access to a lot of data and they are basically honest debaters. And they don’t fly into a tantrum, ignore your questions, or call you a moron for disagreeing with them, unlike some old fogies around here.
In this case, I managed to wrangle out of the LLM that initial data in the 2011 study indicated significantly lower ASD rates in Amish populations, in line with the 2010 research results.
That’s a win for the Amish have less autism side.
It would argue that taking into account other “various factors”, you could argue that those differences might not really be significant. But theoretically, one could make up any number of “various factors” that might change the calculation in any desired direction. The “various factors” here are analogous to putting one’s finger on the scale. Which is what cheats do all the time.
I know this because when I was a kid, my elder brother used to cheat in this way whenever we played board games. It’s a psychopathic trait that is very common in humans unfortunately.
for the term moron—and the use thereof
i think we might have to refer back to your mentor
who couldn’t even spell it.
other than that—-i can’t recall the word being used—though i dont read every post
They might have less autism but they do have no shortage of genetic issues
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/genetic-disorders-hit-amish-hard/
All Amish are descended from a few hundred people living in Alsace in the 17th century and are all genetically siblings.
Kuhl,
There was a time when I had a significant cohort of Amish patients andhad access to their health histories. They weren’t that bad, there was awareness that brides/grooms should come from outside the community.
As for descending from a few hundred people, may I remind you Eve was essentially a clone of Adam and somehow things worked more or less well. Sorry, sometimes I can’t resist.
Dennis L.
Eve theory is a myth. I won’t use myths as a basis for argument.
Man, even Yandex fails to deliver a clear answer to this. Google bump up algorithm must have overheated on this one. Of course I tend to believe it…
Is Europe the Biggest Winner? Have the U.S., China, and Russia Been “Working” for Europe for 30 Years?
https://medium.com/@shutanweizhi01/is-europe-the-biggest-winner-9ec6d8778e4d
“The woke left refused to listen, and now they are going to be destroyed.”
Sargon of Akkad tells them, “You are heading for oblivion and will cheer when you are gone.”
Could this be the kind of far-right totalitarianism that Norman has been so assiduously warning us about?
Doug Cameron was permanently disabled* by a single shot from Janssen vaccine lot# 1805020, manufactured in December 2020. This lot is associated with 1,300+ adverse events and 25 deaths, including 1 death (56 yo male) in Idaho.
*Norman: That means disabled until death, which in Doug’s case is four years and counting so far.
TRANSCRIBER’S NOTES:
-This video is of is of a clip of testimony before the Idaho Health and Welfare Senate Committee on February 17, 2025.
– Julie VanOrden is a Republican senator for District 30 in the Idaho Legislature.
– Douglas Cameron was left paralyzed in 2021 after one injection of Janssen covid “vaccine.” He testified about his injury here, and also for Senator Ron Johnson’s Expert Panel On Federal Vaccine Mandates on November 2, 2021.
CARLA CAMERON: My name is Carla Cameron. I’m from Hammett, Idaho and Doug is my husband of 42 years. And I’m here to share the human side of what has happened to us. I have a email of the packet, I think went to you also.
I’d like to ask everybody in this room a question and a wonder. Do you enjoy your life as you’re living it right now? And how many of you have received this gene therapy shot? And of those of you who did, I’m curious if you’re thankful that what happened to Doug didn’t happen to you in your life.
Countless people have said to Doug and I, thank God, what happened to Doug didn’t happen to them. They would not and could not continue living if they had been harmed as Doug was.
There have been some dark times since he was vaccine injured. I would have been devastated if Doug had thought to end his life. But truly, how could I blame him? He has been forsaken by the very people who said, go ahead and take one for the team. It’ll be OK. After all, there is a compensation program that will help you if you’re injured.
The phrase of taking one for the team, it takes on a whole new meaning when you’re the only one left in the field. And that is exactly how these gene therapy injured people feel.
Through all this adversity Doug has not given up and he has persevered. He knows that he was saved from death to help others. He is here today making sure no one is harmed from these gene therapy products and their unnecessary, unknown, and rare illnesses and risks.
Do you remember during covid when every life mattered? Well that was until the vaccine started injuring people.
I’d like to leave with this. While you may throw your rock and hide your hand working in the dark against your fellow man, but as sure as God made black and white, what’s done in the dark will be brought to the light. As said by Johnny Cash in “The Good Book.”
Please, with your conscience and humility, rethink and reevaluate these gene therapy products going into people and vote for a pause. I know you’re not doing that today, but we need to make sure that no one is taking one for the team unnecessarily.
====
Here’s Sashas’s post on this hearing including the video of this testimony (3rd video down)
https://sashalatypova.substack.com/p/my-testimony-in-support-of-doug-cameron
In our pursuit of resources, we have created the world where everything is far away. Your heat energy comes from inhospitable places, be it very cold, hot or deep areas, your food comes from distant fields, your clothes come from distant countries, your friends or family that can help you for free are far away, too.
Any country in the world fits into this picture, but very cold and very hot countries suffer the most: your energy for heating, cooling and water supply and your food are becoming prohibitively costly.
We have even created such inhospitable places in the areas with favourable countries, when we built urbanized areas of concrete and tightly spaced houses where huge amounts of people are concentrated.
Destitute and alone.
That is how the war machines are fed: the men with inadequate wages are ready to go into war for better pay or better prospects; the women spend huge money for staying attractive with no results, but going deeper into debts; there is no interest in progeny, as such world is simply unsustainable.
“there is no interest in progeny, as such world is simply unsustainable.”
Replacement rate in western society correlates with this idea. If it is a genetic predisposition, it will be self-limiting.
Film at eleven.
Dennis L.
I again mostly agree with your top post.
“… but very cold and very hot countries suffer the most…”
yes true!
and the USA is fairly temperate on average.
therefore we should suffer less, at least until the 2050s or so, when the entire world will be in deep poverty.
Due to the clmt chng, we have milder winters also here in Slovakia, but the warmer air causes less precipitations, so the dams start to be empty:
https://myorava.sme.sk/c/23454177/v-oravskej-priehrade-je-malo-vody-zo-zeme-sa-prasi.html
https://www.ta3.com/clanok/980305/liptovska-mara-odhaluje-svoje-dno-lode-uviazli-na-suchu-nizka-hladina-ohrozuje-letnu-rekreaciu-aj-rybolov
so that is a downside to living in a smaller country.
big ole USA has some deserts that are inhabited by many millions, but not for long.
but thousands of lakes and rivers, with 5 Great Lakes, and huge forests.
hot dam, the USA has abundant coal, oil, and natural gas, and wood, and fresh water, and farmland.
but the FF is going fast, and there will be very little by the 2050s, oh well, people can burn more wood.
“farmland.”
Farmland has been mined, slowly, but it has been mined; it is a non renewable resource.
We can deal with our issues, we can mine space, manufacture in space; farming in space would/will be a reach.
Spaceship earth is very well designed, it allowed we humans for all our faults to do some incredible things. The period of nonrenewables on earth is close to being over, but we are surrounded by stuff. What is required is the courage to try. It is so much easier to give up and accept some failure than to try repeatedly until success if at hand.
Dennis L.
Unless Starship mines the solar system, finds a cubic mile of Pt for a H economy with minimal pollution. This assumes we also mine and manufacture in space where I posit we can ignore pollution.
We are at limits for earth, the solar system is a very large place and if it is “down here”, it is up there.
Dennis L.
Look, I’ll try make this simple.
Humans are tropical animals.
To live in a temperate climate, they need to make a lot more effort, do a lot more preparation, become more creative and more systematic in the efforts to survive. (Think of the trouble we who live at higher latitudes have to go to keep warm and well fed in winter, when nature is not providing us with much sunshine or bananas.)
Hence, people in a temperate climate developed agriculture, complex civilizations, the wheel, industry, machinery, banking, international trade, and eventually all the trappings from public relations to cocktails to 57 varieties and 46 flavors at the shopping mall.
But once all the trappings were developed, and imported into the tropical lands, it emerged that the tropical lands could run modern industrial economies more cheaply than temperate lands could. because they don’t need to spend much effort in preparing for winter.
The temperate lands made a virtue out of a necessity, forged ahead in terms of development and dominated the globe—not because they were genetically superior, but because they were literally forced to evolve culturally in order to survive.
But once the tropical lands could emulate the development, the advantage was in their court, which leaves the temperate lands with an uphill battle to remain viable.
I don’t think there is no conspiracy theory involved in depriving the West of its top-dog status. It is simply in the nature of global capitalism to follow the money to where it makes more profit.
According to the Deagel forecast, most temperate nations are not going to be able to climb this hill.
If I were asked to advise young people in Europe and North America about what to do about this, I would probably say, “Go South, young man! Follow the money.”
seems we are in agreement tim, re humans and hot climates
i shall now get a hot bath and slit my wrists
Where the populations can be maintained lower more cheaply and more sustainably?
The cold areas do not accumulate so much carbon needed for agriculture, the humid subtropical areas accumulate too much people.
We use computers and robots now, anyway. Those have already surpassed our limited capabilities.
We need less people everywhere, but the populations in the cold areas need to be maintained on much lower levels than the populations in the humid subtropical areas. The transportation of food from warm areas to cold areas is not very efficient.
I suspect biology is self regulating and the process is currently beyond our comprehension.
My vote is for biology, we as humans are biology and we ride the tide.
Dennis L.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/more-usaid-fraud-billions-us-tax-dollars-are-missing-haiti-relief-projects
the Clintons are hugely rich, so just connect the dots.
Oh please show me a politician in amurica who hasn’t gotten rich in the last 100 years and I will draw a crowd and kiss your a$$. How much did musk boy get from the libtards? Where is the kool aide at???
chill, Sam I Am, I am chill, Sam.
I didn’t say or even imply that the Ds were the only greeeedy crooooks in the USA.
of course the Rs are just as bad.
but the article referenced the Clinton Foundation.
celebrity charities are one of the easiest scamms going these days.
Sorry I am sick of both sides now that the R’s are In power I am critical of them. The dems are not so bringing out ole dead horses to beat is a waste of time. The U.S can’t drastically cut spending without stalling the economy.
then we are mutually sick of both sides.
I don’t think it’s a waste of time to use the exposed USAID scamm to further expose their past scamms all the way back as far as the scamms go, which is probably at least back to the Clintons, and the 2% of “aid” that went to Haiti and the other 98% pocketed by Ds and probably some Rs too, did you notice those numbers?
I don’t expect justice, the rich and famous rarely are brought to justice, but shutting down the USAID scamm factory is quite good.
yes, vast gov job cuts + spending cuts will stall the economy, no big deal.
Sam , you don’t understand the economic system . This is ” The Landfill Economy ” . Your waste is my income .
I agree.
A hurricane going through, and the clean-up afterward, adds a whole lot of income. Sending your children to daycare adds income to the system.
Adding needless complexity to computer systems justifies higher prices.
Looking at Gail’s SE Asia quotes, thinking of Amish, seeing farmers using older techniques and seemingly successful.
What do they have in common? Family which is of course biology. Of course families fail, but with 80/20 and five children only need one to succeed.
Families by necessity are forward looking, biology self replicates and thus has skin in the game for tomorrow. No children leads to what may well be narcissistic philosophies to self justify rather low life behavior dressed up as sophistication.
I am hearing/reading comments that Trump was very much a man of the people, he was in construction and construction is real world. There is a certain library in Chicago which appears to be $700M over budget, it has many of the right words but bricks and mortar are challenging. When someone called Trumps supporters garbage, the next day he was seated in a garbage truck. It is real world regardless of how you see his beliefs.
We are still biology, not sure how AI works. Earth is a spaceship which is biology, there does not seem to be much biology in the rest of the solar system. Too much inorganic stuff and we kill our biology. A guess is those who are self-replicating win, biology has been a winner for a long time. If the narrative is not congruent with biology, hopefully it is written in stone as it will be fleeting I suspect.
Thoughts?
Dennis L.
The amish and tge villagers are hopelessly inbred which means they wil be stuck at there forever.
Inbreeding usually leads to extinction. That is biology , albeit biology you or your copilot does not like.
Question: How large a population of humans is needed to prevent “inbreeding”?
Another question: “Does an even larger breeding pool ensure better, fitter humans, so that having “a great big melting pot, big enough to take the world and all it’s got” represent an optimized breeding strategy for humanity?”
The thought occurs that the British aristocracy were hopelessly inbred and that is the main reason for their decline and fall.
Keith, or Gregory Clark, may have something to say about this too.
“How large a population ”
Not an exact answer, but the Tasmanians persisted for something close to 10,000 years on a population of 7,000 (IIRC). Another island could have had 700 and that did not persist.
“optimized breeding strategy”
We know that from domestic animals. You breed close relatives to weed out the bad recessives then out breed from inbreed lines.
“British aristocracy ”
As I recall from Clark, they did not do well because so many of them were killed in fighting.
What amazed me from Clark’s later work is that people in the UK upper class who marry have very similar genes in spite of not being close relatives. How do they do that?
Thanks, Keith, for your reply.
I haven’t studied the matter very deeply. But I recall reading in history lessons in secondary school that when the Normans conquered England in 1066, they numbered 10,000 men and they became the aristocracy that ruled over around a million Anglo-Saxons. They did allow a limited number of Anglo-Saxon nobles to remain in the club, but it was mostly a Norman thing, and they spoke French, which also helped preserve the division between the two groups.
And a few centuries before that, I remember the conquering Anglo-Saxons killed or castrated the male native Britons, so their Y chromosomes survived only in Wales and Cornwall. The Saxons were, however, more friendly to female Britons.
Again Clark deliberately ignores the Great War as if it did not occur because like the late Dr Robert Firth or the still kicking Peter Cassidy, Clark thinks those who would have been called by Wellington as the Scum of the Earth did something great.
As a result a lot of people in the upper crust did not reproduce or mated with people far below their class.
” Clark deliberately ignores the Great War”
At least for the 2007 paper, WW I happened `114 years after the period he was researching. That’s a weird complaint.
Clark does not want to admit that people like his grandpa rose in status which they did not deserve (his bio mentions no children; apparently he thought his line wa not wirth continuing) thanks to the destruction of so many members of the ruling class thanks to 200/400 country bumpkins from Wircestershire, who are no less guilty than Chucky.
“How do they do that?”
Biology? Them thats gots get? What attracts a woman to a man is not completely understood. I have heard that smell is part of it, more to avoid bad gene pairings that to indicate a positive pairing.
We are biology, it has been going on for a long time, what does not work is now on the trash heap of failed ideas.
Personally I suspect the 80/20 rule is buried in this somewhere; or if you like, God is not perfect but pretty good sometimes given sufficient time.
Dennis L.
Like John Profumo, an Italian aristocrat who became UK’s defense minister and created a political scandal, Britain was not against admitting aristocrats from other countries to diversify the genes of the upper class.
Again, for the umpteenth time, the greatest disaster for the British ruling class was the Great War, which basically killed off too many of their younger rank and even those who returned were no longer what they used to be.
I described the real case of Vera Brittain, whose only brother was killed in the war and she had to take a poor Vicar’s son, an Oxford dropout (he later graduated after the War because so many of their alumni had perished so they needed an alumni), and she refused to use his surname since he was beneath her.
The kind of people who would have been called ‘the scum of earth’ by the Duke of Wellington came forth to run UK, and we all know what happened next, but the British upper class is much less inbred than others.
The Tasmanians might have increased to 10,000 because there were less competition but the purebred Tasmanian population was 0 by 1900, the only remaining ones being descendants of the settlers and tribes women so no Y chromosome from Tasmanians.
I don’t think the average human with average world intelligence will be winning without food. Reproducing is only winning if you can also survive to reproduce enough. You are not winning if someone with a plantary laser beams down and turns all 8 billion people into ashes.
Telling him common sense is futile. I just reply to tell others his delusional thinking is not based upon reality.
a speech by Jeffrey Sachs at the EU parliament.
excellent speech by the brave Jeffrey Sachs, worth 15 minutes.
he doesn’t say USevilEmpire, but I do.
Describes America trying to overthrow other countries, for one excuse or another. Mass Media repeats whatever narrative the US government tells them.
According to Wikipedia, Jeffrey David Sachs is an American economist and public policy analyst who is a professor at Columbia University.
That one is a tough one. Is the world a better place because of America or in spite of it? Currently there is or recently was a negativity regarding the US.
Always the optimist, I think we will muddle through and somehow do better than most/all of the rest. We have always been generous toward others although that process is far from perfect.
Dennis L.
Jeffrey Sachs speaks of “childish propaganda.” I love this phrase.
That’s the only model of foreign or any other policy the mass media does, and, lamentably, a lot of people like Norman digest this childish propaganda and repeat it word for word, slogan for slogan, and slur for slur.