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Tailwinds often make jet planes fly faster than they would regularly fly. In this post, I talk about economic tailwinds that help the economy grow more quickly.
Strangely enough, the economy seems to move from tailwind to tailwind, as new resources are discovered, as population expands, and as central banks figure out new ways to fix the economy. In this post, I will describe some tailwinds affecting the economy. Many of these have recently lost their value or are likely to lose their value in the future. The long-term trend seems to be toward tailwinds becoming available to some parts of the world economy, but there may be major dips and shifts with respect to which segments of the world economy are favored.
[1] The tailwind of very low oil prices
Before 1972, the US economy had the tailwind of a good supply of oil available at very low prices. Goods could be made cheaply with oil products, and new devices, such as automobiles, could be operated very inexpensively. New technology could take hold quickly because resources, including energy resources, were easily available. For these reasons, the economy could grow very quickly, with little use of debt.
Data from the US Bureau of Economics shows that the US economy experienced an average annual growth rate of 4.8% between 1932 and 1972, which is very high by today’s standards. The same data shows that the US economy’s average annual growth rate was 2.7% for the period 1972 to 2022.
[2] The tailwind of falling interest rates and near zero interest rates
From 1981 to 2020, the world economy had a tailwind of generally falling interest rates.
On Figure 2, the top line (in red) shows 10-year interest rates. The lower line (in blue) represents interest rates of 3-month Treasuries.
In the US, many mortgage rates have tended to follow 10-year interest rates. We all know that as mortgage rates fall, homes become more affordable to buyers. As more homes become affordable to buyers, the “demand” for homes goes up. More homes are built, stimulating the economy. Similarly, buying farmland becomes more affordable. Factories become more affordable. There are more people bidding for these goods, so the selling prices tend to rise.
Figure 2 shows that short term rates have also been falling, but in a more irregular way. The fact that these rates have generally been falling has also greatly aided economic growth, since many industrial and financial loans are very short term.
It appears to me that the temporary rise in short-term interest rates between 2004 and 2006 ultimately caused the Great Recession of 2007-2009. See my academic paper, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis. Note the delayed impact of the rate rise. It is far too early to assume that the recent rise in interest rates will have no serious detrimental effects on the economy.
To try to keep the economy operating after the Great Recession, short term interest rates were brought down to close to zero for most of the time between 2008 and early 2022. These low interest rates encouraged investors to pursue new ventures that were very “iffy”– they might produce a positive return, or they might lose money. In fact, government subsidies were added, inviting investors to pursue “opportunities” that were likely to be money losers.
With this long-term tailwind of falling interest rates, capital gains were very easy to obtain. Homes became worth increased amounts, as did farms, seemingly by magic. Shares of stock tended to rise. People began to believe that there was little risk in borrowing money for questionable ventures. New high technology businesses in Silicon Valley blossomed.
In some sense, interest rates that rose in the 1960 to 1981 period (to keep the economy from racing ahead too fast) had stored up momentum that could be used in the 1981 to 2020 period.
We are now past that period of falling interest rates. In fact, we are in a new period of rising interest rates because of depleting resources, and the upward pressure these depleting resources place on inflation rates. Furthermore, a 200-year history of US interest rates shows that the recent near-zero interest rates have been an anomaly. We cannot expect interest rates to go back to the recent low level for any extended period. An interest rate of 5% or more is normal. The economy has benefitted from the temporary gift of falling interest rates, and of near zero rates, but this period is likely past.
[3] The tailwind of rising debt, relative to GDP
The fact that debt is rising, relative to GDP, is closely related to Tailwind [1] and Tailwind [2].
How much debt does it take to create one dollar of GDP? In theory, both the buyer of a product (such as a vehicle), and the various organizations involved with creating the product and shipping it to the end user, will need debt to move the process along. If the government is adding a subsidy to move the process along, this will add another layer of debt.
Figure 3 shows that prior to 1981, when oil prices were low (Figure 1), it took less than one dollar of debt to facilitate the process of creating one dollar of GDP. Oil companies were sufficiently profitable that they could use their profits to reinvest in new wells as old ones depleted. They did not need to add debt to make the process work. While products such as homes might need debt for the buyers to afford them, many other products did not. In this early period, government subsidies were much more limited than today.
After 1981, the ratio of debt to GDP steadily rose. The rise was particularly steep after 2001, when China was added to the World Trade Organization (Figure 1). As China ramped up its manufacturing, the price of oil tended to rise because more oil was needed for manufacturing and shipping the goods China made. More debt was required to import this higher-priced oil, causing at least part of the increase in the debt to GDP ratio. The dip in the debt to GDP ratio in the 2014-2019 period seems to correspond to the period of lower oil prices shown in Figure 1.
In some sense, it is strange that GDP does not consider the added debt that an economy requires in order to create the goods and services that it produces. Logically, it might make sense for GDP to measure the value of goods and services added, net of the additional debt required to make these goods and services. We can see from Figure 3 that this net approach would only work up until 1981. Since 1981, it has become necessary to add more debt than the amount of additional goods and services produced. If the interest rate is 0%, perhaps this is not a major issue, but if the interest rate rises to 5% or more, a huge amount of interest to be paid. Repaying debt with interest becomes a serious problem unless the borrower is able to find a truly profitable use for the funds.
[4] The tailwind of higher population
If population is growing, there is a need for many new things, including new schools, roads, stores, and homes. This puts pressure on GDP to grow. Figure 4 shows population growth, excluding the impact of migration.
In the 1950s and 1960, part of the reason that GDP in the More Developed parts of the world was growing rapidly was because population was growing quickly (Figure 4). This tailwind had mostly disappeared by the mid-1990s. Now, if one of the More Developed parts of the world shows population growth, it tends to be the result of increasing immigrant population.
Total world population (Figure 5) keeps rising, even though birth rates have been falling because people in less developed parts of the world have been living longer. This adds to migration pressure because there are not enough goods and services available for the increased population.
[5] The US tailwind from playing “King of the Mountain”
In March 2022, the US Federal Reserve started raising interest rates. These higher interest rates can be seen as a way to push the US$ higher relative to other currencies, especially relative to currencies of poorer countries, such as Argentina and Turkey. By pushing the dollar higher, oil and other commodities become relatively cheaper to the US, and relatively more expensive to those countries with currencies whose value is low relative to the US$. Also, the higher interest rates make the US a more attractive country for other countries to invest in.
The US move to raise interest rates higher can be viewed as a “King of the Mountain” move. High interest rates can perhaps be withstood by strong economies, but they cannot be withstood by weak economies. For example, many of the poorer countries of the world have loans from the International Monetary Fund. As the US dollar strengthens relative to local currencies, these loans become more difficult to be paid back. The fact that recent interest rates are higher also makes it harder for borrowers to repay debt with interest. Weak businesses and perhaps weak governments around the world will tend to be squeezed out.
One thing that may help the US in trying such a move is that fact that US debt has a kind of moneyness quality that the debt of other countries does not have. This occurs because the US$ is the reserve currency, which in turn is related to the US being the world’s hegemon. The question becomes: How long can the US maintain this lofty position? Other countries are likely to push back and find ways to work around the use of the US$, if it is to their disadvantage.
[6] The tailwind from the “Green Energy Will Save Us” narrative
The standard narrative about green energy saving the world from its climate change gives great opportunities for governments to subsidize wind turbines and solar panels, battery manufacturing plants, and the building of electric vehicles. These subsidies create more debt, which helps push the economy along.
The educational system is also stimulated by the “Green Energy Will Save Us” story. Educators have new courses to teach and new subjects to write academic papers about. If students are interested in studying these subjects, the US government is willing to provide debt-based funding to the prospective students. This adds another source of debt to stimulate the economy.
Of course, there is the hurdle of paying this debt back, especially if interest rates are at a new higher level. This game would not seem to be able to go on very long unless some green approach actually works. Such an approach needs to work in current devices, be low-cost to manufacture, and be affordable to customers at a price that generates taxable revenue.
[7] Over the very long run, tailwinds do seem to help the Universe grow and become more complex and more energy intense.
Eric Chaisson, in the book Cosmic Evolution: The Rise of Complexity in Nature, writes about the Universe gradually becoming more complex and having greater energy intensity. He shows images such as this one.
We don’t understand why this happens. Evolution seems to happen in every part of the Universe. Many parts of the Universe are short-lived. Each new part of the Universe varies in random ways from its predecessors. Evolution happens through the survival those that are the best adapted to their surroundings. This happens at least partly through the laws of physics. There may be some other force involved as well. Economists talk about the Invisible Hand being helpful. Those who are religious may think of the Hand of God being involved.
We know that the Earth has survived for a very long time, despite being hit by large meteors and despite major changes in climate. In fact, early humans lived through glacial periods. There are times when economies and populations fall back considerably, but somehow the world ecosystem recovers. It may even adapt in a way that allows more opportunity for growth.
Thus, even as the economy seems to be running out of today’s tailwinds, somehow there may be future tailwinds that will push the at least segments of the world economy along in a somewhat different direction. We simply don’t know for certain how things will turn out.
Biden said “Folks, were there no Israel, there wouldn’t be a Jew in the world who is safe”
He’s just admitted that they are not safe safe in the U.S. Why does he hate Jews so much?
They’re white European decedents, that enjoy genocide, just like him.
The New York Post ran a SADS story yesterday headlined, “Beloved Pennsylvania news anchor Emily Matson dead at 42: ‘Utterly devastating’.” Another one.
Described as a “beloved Pennsylvania news anchor,” “side-splittingly funny,” “fun-loving,” “positive,” and a “shining light” in the newsroom, Emily Matson, 42, died mysteriously, suddenly, and unexpectedly this week. Another reporter at her station called Emily’s death “utterly devastating.”
Her cause of death remains undisclosed. Classified. Top secret.
Completely unrelated, back in December, 2020, Emily penned a positive and fun-loving, pro-jab article that ran on Erie News Now’s website.
The Huffington Post ran a story yesterday headlined, “Anna Cardwell, Honey Boo Boo’s Sister, Dies At 29.” The sub-headline added, “Cardwell, who appeared on TLC’s Toddlers & Tiaras with her family, was diagnosed with stage 4 cancer in January.”
Reality TV star Anna Cardwell, twenty nine, died this week after a short, difficult, 11-month battle with stage 4 adrenal carcinoma. Adrenal cancer is very rare, and at stage 4, like Anna’s, has already spread beyond the two small adrenal glands at the tops of the kidneys.
Award-winning singer and songwriter Bulelwa Mkutukana, 35, better known by her artist name Zahara, died last night in a Johannesburg hospital after a short illness. Zahara was admitted about two weeks ago with “liver complications.” Apparently her liver was very complicated, because the doctors could not save the young lady’s life.
Nobody saw it coming. She was fine before she wasn’t.
https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/settled-science-tuesday-december
norm keith will still get the next booster even if they read this
https://lionessofjudah.substack.com/p/dr-guy-hatchard-korean-studies-indicate
It’s like asking a toaster to make ice
oh no, he is awake!
😉
Should the BRICS sanction the U.S. for Gaza? Should it embargo oil to the U.S.?
On a different front will Turkey and Russia send troops to Gaza?
BRICS aren’t psychowoketards like the US “leadership”.
US + Canada produces 19+ mbpd of black goo crude.
BRICS don’t have much leverage on US imports.
biggest US imports are 4 mbpd from Canada.
no stopping that.
Russia is too smart to get involved with Gaza.
Up up and away…
https://mishtalk.com/economics/rent-jumps-another-0-5-percent-only-a-decline-in-gasoline-prevents-a-hot-cpi/
Have you ever felt the piercing gaze of an unseen eye and turned to find someone staring intently at you? This universal sensation, experienced by a vast majority across different cultures, is not just a figment of the imagination. Indeed, a fascinating new article by Rupert Sheldrake claims 80% of women and nearly three-quarters of men in Britain, the US and Scandinavia report experiencing this uncanny feeling.
https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/the-mystery-of-being-watched
Hey norm… when you gawk at women on the street and in the supermarket… you know you are creeping them out? They are not flattered… they are thinking .. why is the geezer with the bulging geriatric diapers looking at me? Notice how the scurry away….
Turbo Cancers, what are they and why are they happening?
My incredible conversation with Dr William Makis MD
https://docmalik.substack.com/p/turbo-cancers-what-are-they-and-why
Vaxxer has a big ass bulge coming out the back of his head… painful… + he’s experiencing splitting headaches…
Fearful and stressed — he goes to the doc… tests are run … doc says well — we’ve got good news ….
You have Turbo Cancer.
Turbo Cancer? That doesn’t sound like good news WTF??????
It is good news… cuz it means the Rat Juice shots you took over the last 3 years are working extremely well…. and Turbo Cancer is signalling this.
Oh ya?
Ya.
Can I get another shot?
Why yes … of course you can. Roll up your sleeve.
Emma Ashford is based in Washington, she is close to the neo-Cons and she published last Friday in the online Guardian that is widely read in USA.
It is a struggle to wrestle any honesty out of the western media about UKR as it is all about storytelling and even outright lies.
She does admit that the USA narrative (story) about UKR is dead, the UKR offensive completely failed and she now wants a new story to get Biden re-elected.
She acknowledges that there is zero chance of UKR winning or getting back land and that Biden’s new story ought to be about the defence of UKR and eventual negotiations.
Russia will win and it will set the terms of its victory but the White House is desperately struggling for a new story as the old one is already dead.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/08/ukraine-biden-strategy-us-aid-russia
> At this critical moment for Ukraine, Biden must face the truth – and rethink his strategy
As support for US aid falters and an election looms, the White House needs a narrative based on reality, not rhetoric
…. Hours later, every single Republican senator voted against the bill that would have given more aid to Ukraine. It’s just the latest setback for Ukraine, as something that had until only months ago been considered almost inevitable – continuing US funding for the war – has become highly uncertain.
…. The controversy could not have come at a worse time for Ukraine. The country’s much anticipated 2023 counteroffensive has yielded few gains [failed with a 125,000 dead], western support is declining generally, and the winter is likely to see another extensive Russian bombing campaign [Russia is currently on the offensive and making gains along the frontline]. The war in Gaza is taking attention and resources away from Ukraine, and recriminations about the failed winter offensive – along with signs of discord among Ukrainian leaders – have begun to appear in strategic news leaks.
…. But as a recent Washington Post exposé highlighted, Ukrainian forces didn’t meet even the minimum bar for success in that campaign.
…. After 18 months of triumphalist rhetoric, reality is beginning to set in. Now policymakers in Kyiv and their western partners must answer some challenging questions: how much territory can Ukraine realistically recover through military means? How long will western public opinion continue to support funding the war? When does failure to invest in our defence industrial base mean that our stockpiles are insufficient to resource Ukraine?
…. But given the present circumstances, the administration needs to formulate a plausible plan B for how to proceed – whether or not Congress approves additional funding. There’s relatively little point in pushing for a ceasefire
…. They also need a better narrative. For much of the last year, the White House has argued that US support should be focused on helping Ukraine retake territory. But this limits US policymakers and makes the failure by Ukraine to retake territory a Russian win almost by default. Instead, the White House should seek to build a new narrative: that this is a war of defence for Ukraine, and a strategic defeat for Russia, and that the US can support Ukraine while also acknowledging that there are other national security priorities that might need to take precedence. This narrative is less aspirational, but more pragmatic.
Attempting to transition the war in Ukraine to a lower-stakes defensive conflict in the next year will not necessarily be popular, either in Kyiv, or among US allies in Europe. Nor is it a plan that would win the war or offer significant territorial gains. But it is a plan that can prevent Ukrainian losses. And most importantly, if the Biden administration is re-elected in November, this approach would place them in a much stronger position to pursue armistice negotiations in late 2024.
The UKR offensive flopped and Russia is now on the offensive and it is slowly advancing along the frontline.
Europe is freaking about what happens once Russia wins in UKR and NATO is building forces in the Baltic and Poland.
Realistically Russia has the best military industrial base in the world and NATO has nothing comparable and neither will it.
Europe has its own stories and lies going on and it seems to be incapable of de-escalating tensions with Russia.
Biden’s new Ukraine strategy, failure not defeat. Order Zelensky to freeze conflict
Good morning, all is well this warm December.
Seems business as usual, nothing much to fret on,
Especially lack of oil.
September oil production increased by 224 kb/d to 13,236kb/d, a new record high by 236 kb/d over November 2019
https://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/US-Tot.png
I guess that’s why peak oil is not a concern.
Too bad we fritter away this surplus energy making multiple spur of the moment trips like getting a happy meal in the suv. Like do we not have better ideas than say like drag racing.
Maybe TPTB knows there are secret reserves so it’s good for the masses to have fun.
Maybe there’s plenty of time to work on alternatives.
19 days until 2024, Doomaahs!
urrrrr.
nyet?
Today is the last day.
A lot of people are still denial.
It seems there is no good way to stem the hordes and the English speaking world is going to face the consequences .
I do not consider the majority of the inhabitants of North America to be part of Western civilization. At best they belong to the fringe, like Russia.
People of the Eastern Establishment might have been part of Western Civ but the rest, I have to say, belong to something other than that.
The British trusted them more than the Europeans just because they speak English, albeit the English of the bottom feeders during the Elizabethan era as noticed in the lines of the Captain (actually a Sergent who speaks ‘American’ English as below, as Edmund, now an Earl, instructs the American to kill Lear’s daughter)
V,3,3160
Edmund.(Go and kill Cordelia)
Captain. I’ll do’t, my lord.
V,3,3164
Edmund. (Text me after you kill her)
Captain. I cannot draw a cart, nor eat dried oats;
If it be man’s work, I’ll do’t. Exit.
American English comes from people who spoke like that 400 years ago.
It is time for the barbarians who speak English to fall back to the barbarism where they belg, and people who don’t want to accept it will whine but there is no avoiding of it.
“I do not consider the majority of…”
it doesn’t matter what you think about Reality.
it is what it is.
The last day of what?
the last of 20 days to comment on this article.
the last hour actually.
is FE asleep?
Dogs are awesome https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/90251
dogs are extroverts and cats are introverts.
they’re all people.
I am thinking about the CGI war in Ukey when i watch the deer (they are CGI)
Yale’s 2023 myocarditis study explains that the LNPs are “highly inflammatory,” naming lipids in synergy with RNA as myocarditis “likely inflammatory driver.”
https://amothersanthem.substack.com/p/yales-2023-myocarditis-study-explains
I live in Shenton Park Perth in my home state WA. I’ve expected collapse since about 1998. Now I’m 70 so stopped prepping. We can’t change anything. I’m ready to go. I’ve got a shack in Denmark WA on the south coast now rented out and I can’t be bothered planning. Please email me on when you’re settled in. Be cool to catch up.
WA has plenty of BAU left in the tank.
We had loads of food remaining in large plastic storage bins… remnants of our days on the north end of the south island when we were in prepper delusion mode… I just gave away the last of this the other day as we need to clear out the garage…
Regretfully Fast Eddy is a virtual entity … he is parked in the left lobe of my brain … and only manifests HIMSELF on the interwebs… which is a good thing cuz if HE ever forced me to spew this radical stuff in polite society .. I’d be burned alive or stoned to death… HE does not want that cuz then HE’d have to find another vessel… and HE seems to like our symbiotic relationship….
Therefore if you were expecting to meet Fast Eddy should be gather for a coffee – you’d be profoundly disappointed… I am not HIM … and HE is not me….
The views and opinions expressed by the character know as The Goat (aka Fast Eddy) are not necessarily mine… I may agree with everything he spews onto OFW>.. I may not… you’ll never know…
wot? from A/X ??
How’d you like to lock 1000 vaxxers in a room … and show them clips of vax damaged young people… collapsing .. hooked up to machines and tubes in a hospital… funerals with families wailing… babies turned purple as they die… mothers breaking down …
With this music playing https://metatron.substack.com/p/covid-requiem-aeternam?s=r
F789 yeah — they’d lose their minds
Sage… embraces UEP….
https://sagehana.substack.com/p/hombre-rapido-and-the-end-of-the/
Hoolio winning! teaches master to be bull dog which results in getting published by Sage.(the byline is anonymous )
Who is Sage? Well she says she won the spelling bee. She’s definitely ticked off royally. The latest articles make all the famous anti establishment look like controlled opposition. (Is that even useful? ) like Elon saying soros just doesn’t like humanity.
Don’t the aristocrats find the masses pesky, revolting?
Kulm has interesting points.
One of the comments:
Buckminister
11 hrs ago
Fast Eddy is maybe not the ideal source to get your straight intel from. Peak oil – or as Eddy calls it peak “affordable” oil is a long running 3 card monte commodities shuffle the nation states have been playing against each other – and us – Joe palooka US citizenry – for nearly 75 years now. Peak oil is a gripping narrative (not really but trying to give then props for a clever premise and a decent hook) cooked up by the same collection of shysters who sold y’all on the “vaccinnes” – do you recognize the similarities in the story lines?; (Pay attention peeps, bc these f3825ers do leave big greasy fingerprints all over the script) We are running out of this very precious and exceedingly rare commodity that only we can measure and extract and process, but we are certainly not lying to you that it is about to run out any second here and thats why the price is shot up so high! Notice the remarkable similarity to “It’s a really dangerous germ that only WE can see! And it’s spreading invisibly – EVERYWHERE! And in order to stop from dying you need a “Vaccine” that we suddenly created and only we know what is inside the vax and its very special – to save you!
Written by the same Hollywood mockingbird studio writing team that did the last grift. Cmon people. You can see the con plain as day if ya look hard enough.
Feel free to drop in The Question below that comment:
So why do we steam oil out of sand?
That generally shuts down the trolls (the PR Team has not provided them with an answer to that … cuz the only answer is obvious)
BTW – lets add Why do we steam oil out of sand if there are oceans of oil left to be tapped…
to … the moon thing… the rat juice
The truth is so obvious… yet even if you show them .. they refuse to see.
steaming does not require drilling.
so Canada is making billion$ of profit per year steaming 6 mbpd out of Alberta and selling 4 mbpd to the US which needs it to make more than enough diesel.
it’s great.
it’s BAU.
oh look, 2024 in just 19 days!
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Thousands of Young Canadians Are DYING SUDDENLY, and No One Wants To Talk About It – Dr. Makis
“The health authorities don’t want to talk about it…They are trying to sweep it under the rug.”
LIONESS OF JUDAH MINISTRY
DEC 11
In this short video, Dr. WIlliam Makis talks about the Government/Health Authorities’ cover-up of numerous sudden deaths of young Canadians.
“ Sudden Arrhythmic Death Syndrome. It was very, very rare…one death per one million population per year… in Canada you would have 38 young people who would die suddenly or unexpectedly in the entire country per year. Now we have thousands.
There are thousands of young people who are dying suddenly and unexpectedly.
No one wants to talk about it.
https://lionessofjudah.substack.com/p/thousands-of-young-canadians-are
norm – long covid?
The injected molecules are electrically negative to be able to cross the cell walls. Swimming in blood and liquor they feel attracted by the nerval system – the brain – and the heart. Both cells that can hardly regenerate.
A lot of brain, heart, lung and liver damages keep unnoticed for a long time.
A number of formerly Pro Vaxxers have admitted to me that they have a range of non life threatening problems post vaxx..e.g. hair loss headaches etc…
A few have said ‘I just don’t feel right since the vax’
One wonders if ALL Vaxxers ‘don’t feel right’ and are unwilling to betray the cause — or fearful of what they have done to themselves — or better still – they believe this is the vax working (cuz cnnbbc said do) — or last but not least they accept this because the alternative would be a lot worse — Covid would put them in the ICU on a vent if they didn’t boost (didn’t Piers just tell them to think that??? I don’t think Piers is in the hospital — that was a PR stunt aimed at instilling fear)
I betcha every single Vaxxer feels off… like a bottle of milk left in the sun for a month…
Of course they do – every Vaxxer’s immune system is f789ed… surely you would not feel right if your immune system was not functioning properly….
I wouldn’t know … my immune system seems to be firing on all cylinders…. hahahahahaaha
I feel f789ing GREAT!
Maybe I will go to the super market where there will be a concentration of Vaxxers and stroll around whistling a happy tune… smiling at all the vaxxers — letting them know I feel so f789ing GREAT… rubbing it in cuz they’ll all be wondering .. what the f789 is he so happy for????? We all feel like sh.it… we feel off … doesn’t everybody feel off? Why is this guy not glum … and living in fear of having a heart attack?
I need to Rub it The F789 In!!!
Oh Wow!!! This signals the end is very close….
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C0k3Spnr97N/?igshid=N2ZiNzVhMjY2OA%3D%3D
Not again, Eddie, so c!ose, yet so far away
How many times are we going to be so near the end?
If Eddy thought it were the end, he wouldn’t be driving clicks and subscribers to these sites. He still wants the money.
BAU 2030 babby! 13.2mbpd C+C USA!
You didn’t watch it. I know
What about the other 5 manned moon landings?
Were they all faked too?
Correct.
NASA scientist admits it here:
https://youtu.be/LOM-cSa93IM?t=81
There is a whole lot more
Seriously? There are still people who believe this nonsense? I guess it’s like they still believe Rat Juice is Safe and Effective — even though millions are dead and maimed… hahahaha
Here are the dead bodies re the moon landing … here we have NASA admitting we cannot safely fly to the moon
https://youtu.be/4O5dPsu66Kw?t=182
Then of course there is this — this is like locking Vaxxers in a room … playing this music https://metatron.substack.com/p/covid-requiem-aeternam?s=r and showing them 3 hours of clips of young dead and maimed vaxxers… as their families wail and howl in grief… pale grey dead bodies… maimed bodies shaking due to neuro damage… bodies hooked up to life support…
Will you watch? I doubt it… just as a Vaxxer would run from the room if the clips of the dead Vaxxers was showing at the cinema
MOREONS Do NOT like being confronted with the truth – they prefer their delusional clown world
Again – do people really believe we have gone to the moon – did you see that f789ing contraption in the first clip???? come the f789 on
“Seriously? There are still people who believe this nonsense”
Why not, they believe 6bn were injected, so they will believe anything, no matter how ridiculous.
Here ya go FE. I fell asleep listening to this last night and thinkingof you, but now even AI is calling it.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/9Y1JqJ0cfdzP/
Notice how regardless of the facts… the moon landing fools … cannot be turned?
If they are hardened moonies… they will remain hardened moonies…
Just like norm keith continue to boost — even after 2+ years of seeing all the death and destruction posted on OFW ….
You cannot change the mind of a …. you know what… it’s a character trait
I think this is part of the problem, humanism. We discover the fabric of the universe, we do not invent it, that is hubris to be charitable.
Fauci follows his own ethics.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/lifestyle/lifestyle-buzz/fauci-says-he-doesn-t-need-church-anymore-claims-his-personal-ethics-on-life-are-enough/ar-AA1lkleN
Leaving aside the ethics part, his results were not that good, again to be charitable.
Secondarily, even the universe is right only 20% of the time, God writes history so the failures are buried in a super nova. That quiets the doubters.
Dennis L.
We all know that Fauci’s wife, Christine Grady, served as chief ethicist with respect to the covid vaccines.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christine_Grady
Her spiritual compass seemed to have been quite different from what most of us would hope for.
“the universe is right only 20% of the time”
WTH? The universe is right 100% of the time.
Please explain what you think is going on the other 80% of the time!!
It appears earth is a very special and rare case. Nick Lane, a biochemist from England, thinks bacteria (not eucaryotes) are fairly common, in the universe, the mitochondria and the ribosome much less so. Embryology is still a mystery, apparently it is secondary to electrical fields from the cells themselves. Somehow, from a single cell, development takes place and only gives two eyes, etc.
Life is a very tough project and getting even the basics right is far from trivial. Sort of a joke, God blows up what doesn’t work and starts over. He simply expands the universe and makes more room, it seems to violate entropy.
Earth and our lives are very special, beyond chance. There are others looking at Darwin with new views, more (see Michael Levin, again electrical fields) are looking at how this occurs.
The universe is not deterministic, it is an ongoing experiment which with a great deal of effort and too many coincidences evidences a thumb on the scale somewhere. God, whatever that is tries various things, most fail, every so often even He gets lucky. I don’t think the ultimate powers are prescient but they do run experiments and some things work, some just blow. When they get something right, they use it and move on. There is much similarity in various branches of biology, the more advanced reuse ideas.
The 80/20 rule is all over the place, perhaps part of the fabric of the universe itself. Speculators have since Jesse Livermore have known to cut their losses and let the profits ride, same idea.
Hope that helps.
Dennis L.
This kind of philosophy is why humanity will be stopped of its goals.
People like you think God/Jesus/Supernova/some supernatural force will wipe out all the sins and transgressions and make them avoid their consequences.
Why do they have to labor to wipe out humanity’s mistakes? They have no reason and incentive to do so.
Sorry, although you don’t want to face it, the consequences do get you, which is the third law of thermodynamics, you can’t cool to absolute zero, in other words you can’t get out of the game.
Interesting remark, Dennis!
Alchemy, which is considered to contain tracks of the older, more comprehensive wisdom from before the flood, suggests the idea, that the world can be enhanced with respect to all necessities and thus create a better world, while the isolated knowledge without spiritual embeddings lead to evil outcomes.
So we have the idea of Kyrill of Alexandria, that man doesn’t need knowledge as long as he believes (more concise: shouldn’t have access to knowledge, so he would be forced to believe more), we have the idea that we can use cognition in a naive way accepting collaterals (nuclear technology, mRNA platform, glyphosate) and we can use knowledge wisely.
From the later point of view, we are not at the mercy of a despotic nature but we are able to at least to some extend shape our destiny hand in hand with facts, that are unchangeable. Let’s say, make the best out of it.
This is even conceded to animals and plants, for example when biologists say, that the soy plant offered mutations useful for humans, who then help the plant with a competitive advantage. We can easily apply this way of thinking to other self-organising systems.
To subjugate under totalitarian control of a superhuman, though, is not part of this idea. It may may in the end help to clean up, but why emit all this pain and grief?
Yes, I agree.
“… but we are able to at least to some extend shape our destiny hand in hand with facts.”
Nice summary, we make the best out of it.
Dennis L.
It is futile to say this to a true believer, but we did the ‘best’ out of it and this is what we got.
Also I am the very few who do not change my views. No mater how powerful your God is, I am not impressed because he is more sizzle than steak.
Some of you might be amused. Back in 1980 I was deeply involved in the L5 Society’s opposition to the Moon Treaty. Saudi Arabia was one of the nations that signed on, and they are withdrawing. Long convoluted article here https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4706/1
Norm, you might note that the only reason to withdraw is that they intend to mine the Moon.
Yup, mine the metals, skip the ores, smelt with a bit of fusion and deliver to the gravity well. High ground: a competitor could find a slight miscalculation in landing coordinates, small non nuclear, nuclear sized explosion.
Remind me, is there someone on earth building large spaceships capable of such things? Have heard rumors Chinese are interested in the S. pole of the moon, probably nothing there. Don’t the Chinese have a space station?
Keith is smarter than I, but isn’t Kevlar strong enough to build a space elevator on the moon?
Dennis L.
..said Wiley Coyote, while opening yet another package from ACME. And indeed he was delivered to the gravity well in each episode.
I suppose the view is that the moon is sort of like the South Pole. Perhaps we will eventually get to the point where we can economically use the minerals. The treaties are put together to plan how to handle such an event. As Keith says, the only reason for Saudi Arabia to withdraw is if the country intends to mine the moon.
keith
whatever is mined, must pass through a conversion process to make it useful in human terms.—there may be a few exceptions to that, but i cant think of any.
after the conversion process, there comes the affordability stage. Ditto above.
what is (flight of fancy here) obtained from the moon, must go through those processes of purpose.
if there was anything of useful purpose on the moon, commercial interests would have been there in the 1980s–the means existed, so did the surplus earth-energy.
nothing of the sort happened—that should tell you why—there’s nothing there of commercial value keith—moon vacations yes, for the ultra rich, but thats it.
The Saudi thing is just a vanity concept, to convince the gullible that moon rocks will substitute for oil wealth,—anything to divert attention from the loomingly obvious as to where saudi is headed post oil.
maybe you cant accept that either, but it is my prediction for their future–and the rest of us for that matter. You continually bang on aboutmoon mining—sorry but it will cost too much in earth-terms.
“B” puts it much better that i can:
https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/inflation-a-misnomer-80618fc94e8e
i can only suggest you read it (twice). And ignore what your AI calculator tells you.
I appreciate your idea of moon vacations for the rich – I would include some politicians, too. The public hand should help finance the go-ticket. It will definitely pay off!
“You continually bang on about moon mining”
You are not paying attention. I have a low opinion of mining the moon. Metal asteroids have 100 times the concentration of useful elements.
Anyway, Keith, why are Saturn’s rings disappearing? What’s the reason? No doubt you’ve read the book “Ring makers of Saturn”, which claimed that the ring were “ejecta” from a huge mother ship that had been spotted there. The author, Norman R. Bergrun, was an astronomer, and he was entirely serious.
“why are Saturn’s rings disappearing?
No idea, they were still there last time I looked.
“What’s the reason? No doubt you’ve read the book “Ring makers of Saturn”, ”
No
“which claimed that the ring were “ejecta” from a huge mother ship that had been spotted there. The author, Norman R. Bergrun, was an astronomer, and he was entirely serious.”
Remember the Heaving Gate suicides? That seems to trace back to a tiny drop of water on a telescope lens that showed up next to the comet. The cult members worked themselves up to a story that this was the mother ship come to take them home and they all bought new sneakers.
I lost a third cousin in that episode.
Maybe the planets and the universe are fake… as in they are just part of a video game simulation
We have not way of proving it’s not
26 Horrifying Photos Of Holodomor — The Ukrainian Famine That Killed Millions
https://allthatsinteresting.com/holodomor-ukrainian-famine
(Alex Christophorous)
Zelensky talks in Argentina with Orban, about timing 07.04 of the video.
As you know Orban has said in various occasions that he doesn’t want to go on throwing money out of the window to keep alive a default State like Ukraine.
‘It is time to accept reality’.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=43gVgMS_hOY
Alex talks about the his belief that Biden really doesn’t want to give more aid to Ukraine, but can’t say so directly. Sending to Zelensky to Argentina to talk to Javier Milei may partly have been to get Milei to share some common sense with Zelensky, and partly so so it doesn’t look like Zelensky is coming to the Americas solely to meet with US leadership.
Alex says that Biden can’t let on that he doesn’t want to give more aid; he would rather blame it on the republicans.
A guess: most of that aid went to build guns, etc. in the US. The US seems to be on a full time war economy, it is a jobs program.
Strange, we are running the aircraft carriers into the ground, guess: they are recognized as little more than targets, use them until they are scrap.
Dennis L.
Type I Civilization and beyond can only be enjoyed by the very few.
Jonathan Swift imagined the floating island of LaPuta, which had what was the state-of-art astronomy back then.
Being no scientist, Swift did not forget to add scathing remarks about the Galt’s Gulch of the day, but he recognized that the need for the technologically advanced people to separate themselves with the less advanced was there.
I imagine the City of Supreme Beings to operate like the Olympus where they would have no worries as imagined by the mortals, while the mortals would increasingly compete for ever diminishing outsources in an even more worsening situation, with the Immortals not giving a fking shit about them about their misery.
The insurmountable tech level difference will make any revolt futile.
That was the only direction a space-faring, Type I Civ would have taken, with leaving nothing whatsoever for those not part of it.
If available resources on earth fall, it is not possible for more than a relatively few people to live here. That becomes a problem.
and there won’t be any “elites”
Only the strong and the dead.
“The poor you will always have with you, but you will not always have me.”
Always 80/20.
Dennis L.
Not always. it was more like 1:99 or at most 5:95.
Vilfredo Pareto was a child of the steam age.
I don’t think you’ll ever get rid of some kind of “elite”. It may just be the “big man” and his relatives.
Starship.
Dennis L.
Powered by what?
If we had 10 more years maybe, but it is now too late
Copilot makes us lazy, per questions, Starship with 1000 launches per year uses .22% of total US natural gas production.
We can keep our gas ranges. Musk is smart,, if Copilot is right, hydrogen for 1000 launches is $1.5B not including increased capital costs for production.
Dennis L.
“22% of total US natural gas production. ”
Most of that gas is burned in turbines to make electric power. If we use it to launch power satellites, then in slightly more than two months after the power satellite is turned on, the gas saved by using power from space exceeds the LNG used to put up the power satellite.
It is an effective way to use LNG.
Hydrogen would take a different rocket.
the gas saved by using power from space
We can’t use power from space.
stop arguing with keiths calculator
it says we can
“We can’t use power from space.”
Does your air conditioner know where the power came from and shuts off?
There have been detailed engineering studies since 1968. I don’t know that they will be built, but they certainly can be.
It’s easier just to delete keith and dennis
It seems humankind will fail to cross the line between savagery and a type I Civilized Transhuman.
Humans were too kind, too weak willed and too oriented for the present.
Abridging the rights of most people who were not likely to contribute to Civilization, being very cruel and merciless for most two legged beasts and not bending rules for people who had a chance on civilization is why humankind will fall back to Eastern Despotism as hoped by Putin , MBS and their friends.
Hear, hear! What is needed is some form of injection to eliminate the useless eaters! But alas, its developers were incompetent.
Imagine reading this …then still getting another booster…
https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/more-bad-news-for-the-mrnas
He is talking about false assumptions. As much as I understand, the people responsible for introducing this technology have aleady warned in the 90s in publications that a bunch of uncontrollable severe side-effects make the platform unsuitable for wide application on healthy people. They have actively and purposely lied and lured people into the jab.
I have already accepted that these are not “people” but just NPCs. There are no eational explanations for their behaviour
More bad news for the mRNAs
A new paper in a top scientific journal shows they accidentally cause our cells to create vast numbers of random misshapen proteins; no one has any idea how serious the risks of those might be
https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/more-bad-news-for-the-mrnas
Operation Bewilder and Confuse – and D-Moralize the MOREONS
https://lionessofjudah.substack.com/p/not-babylon-bee-canada-tackles-methane
Strange!
And they don’t count rent in inflation https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-price-of-rent-surged-27-straight-months-is-relief-finally-coming/
Mish argues that rents don’t really fall. New people moving in may get concessions, but renewals (which are hard to track) don’t get concessions. May still go up.
Guess:
Were the divorce rate to go down, rents would crash. Divorce, living singly is a luxury of the ff age. Two can live about as cheaply as one.
An alternative is to declare your self gay and live as a pair/partner. Two people of the same age, no children get old at the same rate. Tough to have a ready replacement in whom one has invested time and expects a return for a few years before pushed to the curb. I personally don’t wish to share the return on investment from my child.
In my youth two sisters, factory workers, lived together in one of the nicer homes on my block, again, cutting overhead. They had a beautiful lawn.
Dennis L.
In the 18th and 19th century it was not uncommon for unmarried brothers, unmarried sisters, unmarried brothers and sisters to live together for work-sharing, cost-sharing and companionship. See, for example, some of the Agatha Christie novels, the Anne of Avonlea chronicles, Jane Austin, etc. etc.
Hypersolitary living is definitely a product of the oil age.
It takes a lot of energy to heat all of these homes. Homes can be closer together, when there aren’t so many homes, so there is less need for roads.